@validation-os/dashboard 0.15.5 → 0.16.0

package/dist/index.js

@@ -55,6 +55,11 @@ var WORKFLOW_NAV = [
 
 // src/assumption-detail.tsx
 import { useMemo } from "react";
+import {
+  QUESTION_TYPES,
+  STAGES
+} from "@validation-os/core";
+import { isNonEvidence, riskThresholdForStage } from "@validation-os/core/derivation";
 
 // src/breadcrumb.tsx
 import { jsx, jsxs } from "react/jsx-runtime";
@@ -77,7 +82,7 @@ function Breadcrumb({ trail, onNavigate }) {
 }
 
 // src/evidence-composition.ts
-import { scoreAndDedupe, w0ForRung } from "@validation-os/core/derivation";
+import { RUNG_ANCHOR, scoreAndDedupe, w0ForRung } from "@validation-os/core/derivation";
 
 // src/derived-views.ts
 var KILL_ZONE = -50;
@@ -156,20 +161,13 @@ var ALL_RUNGS = [
   "Signed intent",
   "Paying users"
 ];
-var RUNG_CAPS = {
-  Talk: 6,
-  "Desk research": 15,
-  "Signed up": 50,
-  "Observed usage": 50,
-  "Signed intent": 50,
-  "Paying users": 50
-};
 function rungsForLens(lens) {
   return LENS_RUNGS[lens] ?? ALL_RUNGS;
 }
 function buildEvidenceComposition(assumption, readings) {
   const id = str(assumption.id) ?? "";
   const lens = str(assumption.Lens) ?? "";
+  const questionType = str(assumption["Question Type"]) ?? "Existence";
   const ladder = rungsForLens(lens);
   const inputs = [];
   for (const r of readings) {
@@ -183,6 +181,7 @@ function buildEvidenceComposition(assumption, readings) {
       source: str(r.Source) ?? null,
       rung,
       result,
+      questionType,
       representativeness: Number(r.Representativeness) || 1,
       credibility: Number(r.Credibility) || 1,
       date: str(r.Date),
@@ -208,7 +207,9 @@ function buildEvidenceComposition(assumption, readings) {
     return {
       rung,
       contribution: e ? Math.round((e.contribution + Number.EPSILON) * 100) / 100 : 0,
-      cap: RUNG_CAPS[rung] ?? 50,
+      // DEV-5890: cap is the rung's High anchor in the assumption's
+      // question-type sub-ladder — the ceiling (0 for non-evidence rungs).
+      cap: RUNG_ANCHOR[questionType]?.[rung]?.High ?? 0,
       count: e?.count ?? 0
     };
   });
@@ -220,6 +221,7 @@ function buildEvidenceComposition(assumption, readings) {
 }
 function readingContributions(assumption, readings) {
   const id = str(assumption.id) ?? "";
+  const questionType = str(assumption["Question Type"]) ?? "Existence";
   const inputs = [];
   for (const r of readings) {
     const belief2 = readingBeliefFor(r, id);
@@ -232,6 +234,7 @@ function readingContributions(assumption, readings) {
       source: str(r.Source) ?? null,
       rung,
       result,
+      questionType,
       representativeness: Number(r.Representativeness) || 1,
       credibility: Number(r.Credibility) || 1,
       date: str(r.Date),
@@ -248,7 +251,7 @@ function readingContributions(assumption, readings) {
   return inputs.map((input) => {
     const w = winners.find((x) => x.input.id === input.id);
     const used = winnerIds.has(input.id);
-    const strength = w ? w.strength : (input.result === "Validated" ? 1 : input.result === "Invalidated" ? -1 : 0) * (RUNG_CAPS[input.rung] ?? 0);
+    const strength = w ? w.strength : (input.result === "Validated" ? 1 : input.result === "Invalidated" ? -1 : 0) * (RUNG_ANCHOR[questionType]?.[input.rung]?.Typical ?? 0);
     const weight = w ? w.weight : 0;
     return {
       id: input.id,
@@ -261,7 +264,7 @@ function readingContributions(assumption, readings) {
 }
 
 // src/confidence-explainer.ts
-import { RUNG_ANCHOR, W0_BY_RUNG } from "@validation-os/core/derivation";
+import { RUNG_ANCHOR as RUNG_ANCHOR2, W0_BY_RUNG } from "@validation-os/core/derivation";
 var RUNG_INFO = {
   Talk: {
     label: "Talk",
@@ -277,7 +280,7 @@ var RUNG_INFO = {
   },
   "Observed usage": {
     label: "Observed usage (Consumer)",
-    description: "Prototype usage, analytics, telemetry. A do-rung \u2014 20 observed users bring this to ~75% of its cap."
+    description: "Usage sessions, analytics, telemetry, A/B tests. A do-rung \u2014 20 observed users bring this to ~75% of its cap."
   },
   "Signed intent": {
     label: "Signed intent (Commercial)",
@@ -292,6 +295,7 @@ function buildConfidenceExplainer(assumption, readings) {
   const comp = buildEvidenceComposition(assumption, readings);
   const lens = str(assumption.Lens) ?? "";
   const lensRungs = new Set(comp.rungs.map((r) => r.rung));
+  const questionType = str(assumption["Question Type"]) ?? "Existence";
   const allRungs = [
     "Talk",
     "Desk research",
@@ -306,7 +310,7 @@ function buildConfidenceExplainer(assumption, readings) {
     return {
       rung,
       w0: W0_BY_RUNG[rung] ?? 100,
-      anchors: RUNG_ANCHOR[rung] ?? { Low: 0, Typical: 0, High: 0 },
+      anchors: RUNG_ANCHOR2[questionType]?.[rung] ?? { Low: 0, Typical: 0, High: 0 },
       contribution: e?.contribution ?? 0,
       count: e?.count ?? 0,
       inLens: lensRungs.has(rung),
@@ -1506,11 +1510,15 @@ function AssumptionDetail({
   const page = buildRecordPage("assumptions", record, related);
   const lens = String(record.Lens ?? "\u2014");
   const stage = String(record.Stage ?? "\u2014");
+  const questionType = String(record["Question Type"] ?? "\u2014");
   const derived = record.derived ?? {};
   const confidence2 = derived.confidence ?? 0;
   const risk = derived.risk ?? 0;
   const impact = derived.derivedImpact ?? 0;
   const framed = derived.completeness ?? 0;
+  const stageKey = STAGES.find((s) => s === stage);
+  const riskThreshold = stageKey ? riskThresholdForStage(stageKey) : null;
+  const clearedThreshold = riskThreshold != null ? risk <= riskThreshold : null;
   const nextMove2 = nextMoveFor(record, experiments.records ?? []);
   const linkedExperiments = liveExperiments(experiments.records ?? []).filter((e) => {
     const ids = Array.isArray(e.barLineAssumptionIds) ? e.barLineAssumptionIds : [];
@@ -1538,7 +1546,8 @@ function AssumptionDetail({
     /* @__PURE__ */ jsxs4("div", { className: "vos-detail-head", children: [
       /* @__PURE__ */ jsx4("span", { className: "vos-detail-id vos-num", children: assumptionId }),
       /* @__PURE__ */ jsx4("span", { className: "vos-detail-tag", children: lens }),
-      /* @__PURE__ */ jsx4("span", { className: "vos-detail-tag", children: stage })
+      /* @__PURE__ */ jsx4("span", { className: "vos-detail-tag", children: stage }),
+      /* @__PURE__ */ jsx4("span", { className: "vos-detail-tag vos-detail-tag-qt", children: questionType })
     ] }),
     /* @__PURE__ */ jsx4("div", { className: "vos-detail-title", children: statement }),
     /* @__PURE__ */ jsxs4("div", { className: "vos-card vos-next-move", children: [
@@ -1551,6 +1560,24 @@ function AssumptionDetail({
       /* @__PURE__ */ jsx4(ScoreCard, { label: "Confidence", value: formatSigned(confidence2) }),
       /* @__PURE__ */ jsx4(ScoreCard, { label: "Framed", value: `${Math.round(framed)}%` })
     ] }),
+    riskThreshold != null ? /* @__PURE__ */ jsxs4("div", { className: "vos-card vos-threshold-indicator", children: [
+      /* @__PURE__ */ jsx4("div", { className: "vos-threshold-label", children: "Stage threshold" }),
+      /* @__PURE__ */ jsxs4("div", { className: "vos-threshold-row", children: [
+        /* @__PURE__ */ jsxs4("span", { className: "vos-num", children: [
+          "Risk ",
+          Math.round(risk)
+        ] }),
+        /* @__PURE__ */ jsx4("span", { className: "vos-threshold-bar vos-num", children: riskThreshold }),
+        /* @__PURE__ */ jsx4(
+          "span",
+          {
+            className: `vos-threshold-status ${clearedThreshold ? "vos-threshold-cleared" : "vos-threshold-needs"}`,
+            children: clearedThreshold ? "Cleared for this stage" : "Needs evidence"
+          }
+        )
+      ] }),
+      /* @__PURE__ */ jsx4("div", { className: "vos-threshold-hint", children: clearedThreshold ? `Risk at or below the ${stage} threshold \u2014 de-prioritized.` : `Risk above the ${stage} threshold \u2014 testing-priority.` })
+    ] }) : null,
     /* @__PURE__ */ jsx4(EvidenceCompositionView, { assumption: record, readings: readings.records ?? [] }),
     /* @__PURE__ */ jsx4(ConfidenceExplainerView, { assumption: record, readings: readings.records ?? [] }),
     statement ? /* @__PURE__ */ jsxs4("div", { className: "vos-card vos-detail-section", children: [
@@ -1615,6 +1642,7 @@ function AssumptionDetail({
       EvidenceList,
       {
         assumptionId,
+        questionType,
         readings: readings.records ?? [],
         onNavigate
       }
@@ -1623,6 +1651,7 @@ function AssumptionDetail({
 }
 function EvidenceList({
   assumptionId,
+  questionType,
   readings,
   onNavigate
 }) {
@@ -1633,7 +1662,81 @@ function EvidenceList({
     const rows = readingContributions(rec, readings);
     return new Map(rows.map((r) => [r.id, r]));
   }, [readings, assumptionId]);
+  const qt = QUESTION_TYPES.find((q) => q === questionType);
+  const { probative, flagged } = useMemo(() => {
+    const prob = [];
+    const flag = [];
+    for (const r of linkedReadings) {
+      const rung = String(r.Rung ?? "");
+      if (qt && RUNGS.includes(rung) && isNonEvidence(qt, rung)) {
+        flag.push(r);
+      } else {
+        prob.push(r);
+      }
+    }
+    return { probative: prob, flagged: flag };
+  }, [linkedReadings, qt]);
   if (linkedReadings.length === 0) return null;
+  const renderRow = (r, flagged2) => {
+    const id = String(r.id ?? "");
+    const belief2 = readingBeliefFor(r, assumptionId);
+    if (!belief2) return null;
+    const result = String(belief2.Result ?? "Inconclusive");
+    const justification = String(belief2["Grading justification"] ?? "");
+    const excerpt = typeof belief2.excerpt === "string" && belief2.excerpt !== "" ? belief2.excerpt : snippetFromBody2(String(r.body ?? ""), assumptionId);
+    const rung = String(r.Rung ?? "");
+    const source = String(r.Source ?? "");
+    const expId = r.experimentId ? String(r.experimentId) : null;
+    const c = contribById.get(id);
+    return /* @__PURE__ */ jsxs4(
+      "button",
+      {
+        type: "button",
+        className: `vos-evidence-row vos-verdict-${verdictTone(result)}${flagged2 ? " vos-evidence-row-flagged" : ""}`,
+        onClick: () => onNavigate({ name: "reading", id }),
+        children: [
+          /* @__PURE__ */ jsxs4("div", { className: "vos-evidence-row-head", children: [
+            /* @__PURE__ */ jsx4("span", { className: "vos-evidence-date vos-num", children: String(r.Date ?? "") }),
+            /* @__PURE__ */ jsx4("span", { className: "vos-evidence-title", children: String(r.Title ?? id) }),
+            /* @__PURE__ */ jsx4("span", { className: `vos-pill vos-pill-${verdictTone(result)}`, children: result }),
+            /* @__PURE__ */ jsx4("span", { className: "vos-rung-tag", children: rung }),
+            flagged2 ? /* @__PURE__ */ jsx4("span", { className: "vos-evidence-flag", title: "This rung is non-evidence for this assumption's question type \u2014 reclassify the assumption or drop the reading.", children: "non-evidence" }) : null,
+            c && c.used ? /* @__PURE__ */ jsxs4("span", { className: `vos-evidence-score vos-num vos-text-${contributionTone(c.contribution)}`, children: [
+              formatSigned(c.contribution),
+              " confidence"
+            ] }) : null
+          ] }),
+          excerpt ? /* @__PURE__ */ jsxs4("div", { className: "vos-evidence-excerpt", children: [
+            "\u201C",
+            excerpt,
+            "\u201D"
+          ] }) : null,
+          justification ? /* @__PURE__ */ jsxs4("div", { className: `vos-belief-rationale vos-verdict-border-${verdictTone(result)}`, children: [
+            /* @__PURE__ */ jsx4("span", { className: "vos-belief-rationale-label", children: "grading rationale:" }),
+            justification
+          ] }) : null,
+          /* @__PURE__ */ jsxs4("div", { className: "vos-evidence-source", children: [
+            /* @__PURE__ */ jsx4("span", { className: "vos-evidence-source-link", title: source, children: source }),
+            expId ? /* @__PURE__ */ jsxs4(Fragment3, { children: [
+              " \xB7 from experiment ",
+              /* @__PURE__ */ jsx4(
+                "span",
+                {
+                  className: "vos-link",
+                  onClick: (ev) => {
+                    ev.stopPropagation();
+                    onNavigate({ name: "experiment", id: expId });
+                  },
+                  children: expId
+                }
+              )
+            ] }) : null
+          ] })
+        ]
+      },
+      id
+    );
+  };
   return /* @__PURE__ */ jsxs4("div", { className: "vos-card vos-detail-section", children: [
     /* @__PURE__ */ jsxs4("div", { className: "vos-detail-section-label", children: [
       "Evidence \xB7 ",
@@ -1642,65 +1745,20 @@ function EvidenceList({
       linkedReadings.length === 1 ? "" : "s",
       " of evidence"
     ] }),
-    linkedReadings.map((r) => {
-      const id = String(r.id ?? "");
-      const belief2 = readingBeliefFor(r, assumptionId);
-      if (!belief2) return null;
-      const result = String(belief2.Result ?? "Inconclusive");
-      const justification = String(belief2["Grading justification"] ?? "");
-      const excerpt = typeof belief2.excerpt === "string" && belief2.excerpt !== "" ? belief2.excerpt : snippetFromBody2(String(r.body ?? ""), assumptionId);
-      const rung = String(r.Rung ?? "");
-      const source = String(r.Source ?? "");
-      const expId = r.experimentId ? String(r.experimentId) : null;
-      const c = contribById.get(id);
-      return /* @__PURE__ */ jsxs4(
-        "button",
-        {
-          type: "button",
-          className: `vos-evidence-row vos-verdict-${verdictTone(result)}`,
-          onClick: () => onNavigate({ name: "reading", id }),
-          children: [
-            /* @__PURE__ */ jsxs4("div", { className: "vos-evidence-row-head", children: [
-              /* @__PURE__ */ jsx4("span", { className: "vos-evidence-date vos-num", children: String(r.Date ?? "") }),
-              /* @__PURE__ */ jsx4("span", { className: "vos-evidence-title", children: String(r.Title ?? id) }),
-              /* @__PURE__ */ jsx4("span", { className: `vos-pill vos-pill-${verdictTone(result)}`, children: result }),
-              /* @__PURE__ */ jsx4("span", { className: "vos-rung-tag", children: rung }),
-              c && c.used ? /* @__PURE__ */ jsxs4("span", { className: `vos-evidence-score vos-num vos-text-${contributionTone(c.contribution)}`, children: [
-                formatSigned(c.contribution),
-                " confidence"
-              ] }) : null
-            ] }),
-            excerpt ? /* @__PURE__ */ jsxs4("div", { className: "vos-evidence-excerpt", children: [
-              "\u201C",
-              excerpt,
-              "\u201D"
-            ] }) : null,
-            justification ? /* @__PURE__ */ jsxs4("div", { className: `vos-belief-rationale vos-verdict-border-${verdictTone(result)}`, children: [
-              /* @__PURE__ */ jsx4("span", { className: "vos-belief-rationale-label", children: "grading rationale:" }),
-              justification
-            ] }) : null,
-            /* @__PURE__ */ jsxs4("div", { className: "vos-evidence-source", children: [
-              /* @__PURE__ */ jsx4("span", { className: "vos-evidence-source-link", title: source, children: source }),
-              expId ? /* @__PURE__ */ jsxs4(Fragment3, { children: [
-                " \xB7 from experiment ",
-                /* @__PURE__ */ jsx4(
-                  "span",
-                  {
-                    className: "vos-link",
-                    onClick: (ev) => {
-                      ev.stopPropagation();
-                      onNavigate({ name: "experiment", id: expId });
-                    },
-                    children: expId
-                  }
-                )
-              ] }) : null
-            ] })
-          ]
-        },
-        id
-      );
-    })
+    probative.length > 0 ? /* @__PURE__ */ jsxs4("div", { className: "vos-evidence-group vos-evidence-group-probative", children: [
+      /* @__PURE__ */ jsxs4("div", { className: "vos-evidence-group-label", children: [
+        "Probative evidence \xB7 ",
+        probative.length
+      ] }),
+      probative.map((r) => renderRow(r, false))
+    ] }) : null,
+    flagged.length > 0 ? /* @__PURE__ */ jsxs4("div", { className: "vos-evidence-group vos-evidence-group-flagged", children: [
+      /* @__PURE__ */ jsxs4("div", { className: "vos-evidence-group-label", children: [
+        "Flagged as non-evidence for this question type \xB7 ",
+        flagged.length
+      ] }),
+      flagged.map((r) => renderRow(r, true))
+    ] }) : null
   ] });
 }
 function contributionTone(v) {
@@ -1708,6 +1766,14 @@ function contributionTone(v) {
   if (v < 0) return "crit";
   return "neutral";
 }
+var RUNGS = [
+  "Talk",
+  "Desk research",
+  "Signed up",
+  "Observed usage",
+  "Signed intent",
+  "Paying users"
+];
 function snippetFromBody2(body, cue) {
   if (!body) return "";
   const quoteMatch = body.match(/## Quote\n+([\s\S]*?)(?=\n## |\n##$|$)/i);
@@ -1917,7 +1983,7 @@ function EvidenceCompositionView({
 }
 
 // src/assumptions-surface.tsx
-import { useMemo as useMemo2 } from "react";
+import { useMemo as useMemo2, useState as useState3 } from "react";
 
 // src/next-move.ts
 import {
@@ -2068,6 +2134,114 @@ import {
   assumptionCompleteness,
   readingBeliefInputs
 } from "@validation-os/core";
+import { riskThresholdForStage as riskThresholdForStage2 } from "@validation-os/core/derivation";
+
+// src/stage-grid-model.ts
+var STAGE_ORDER = [
+  "Discovery",
+  "Validation",
+  "Scale",
+  "Maturity"
+];
+var STAGE_GLOSS = {
+  Discovery: "Problem-solution fit \u2014 will they engage, care, disclose?",
+  Validation: "Product-market fit \u2014 will they pay, sign, stay?",
+  Scale: "Growth \u2014 can we acquire efficiently, does CAC<LTV hold at volume?",
+  Maturity: "Defense \u2014 will incumbents respond, will regulators accept?"
+};
+var NO_LENS = "\u2014";
+var NO_STAGE = "\u2014";
+function stageOf(record) {
+  const v = str(record.Stage);
+  if (!v) return null;
+  return STAGE_ORDER.includes(v) ? v : null;
+}
+function rankByRisk(records) {
+  return [...records].map((r) => ({ r, risk: derivedNum(r, "risk") ?? 0 })).sort(
+    (a, b) => a.risk !== b.risk ? b.risk - a.risk : a.r.id.localeCompare(b.r.id)
+  ).map((x) => x.r);
+}
+function buildStageGrid(assumptions) {
+  const lensOrder = [];
+  const seenLens = /* @__PURE__ */ new Set();
+  const pushLens = (lens) => {
+    if (!seenLens.has(lens)) {
+      seenLens.add(lens);
+      lensOrder.push(lens);
+    }
+  };
+  const buckets = /* @__PURE__ */ new Map();
+  const ensureLens = (lens) => {
+    let m = buckets.get(lens);
+    if (!m) {
+      m = /* @__PURE__ */ new Map();
+      buckets.set(lens, m);
+    }
+    return m;
+  };
+  let hasNoLens = false;
+  let hasNoStage = false;
+  for (const a of assumptions) {
+    const lens = str(a.Lens) ?? NO_LENS;
+    const stage = stageOf(a) ?? NO_STAGE;
+    if (lens === NO_LENS) hasNoLens = true;
+    if (stage === NO_STAGE) hasNoStage = true;
+    pushLens(lens);
+    const byStage = ensureLens(lens);
+    let list = byStage.get(stage);
+    if (!list) {
+      list = [];
+      byStage.set(stage, list);
+    }
+    list.push(a);
+  }
+  if (hasNoLens) {
+    lensOrder.splice(lensOrder.indexOf(NO_LENS), 1);
+    lensOrder.push(NO_LENS);
+  } else {
+    const idx = lensOrder.indexOf(NO_LENS);
+    if (idx >= 0) lensOrder.splice(idx, 1);
+  }
+  const stageOrder = [...STAGE_ORDER];
+  if (hasNoStage) stageOrder.push(NO_STAGE);
+  const cells = [];
+  let maxCellCount = 0;
+  let total = 0;
+  for (const lens of lensOrder) {
+    const byStage = buckets.get(lens) ?? /* @__PURE__ */ new Map();
+    for (const stage of stageOrder) {
+      const records = byStage.get(stage) ?? [];
+      const ranked = rankByRisk(records);
+      const count = ranked.length;
+      maxCellCount = Math.max(maxCellCount, count);
+      total += count;
+      cells.push({
+        lens,
+        stage,
+        count,
+        assumptions: ranked,
+        // density filled in a second pass once maxCellCount is known.
+        density: 0
+      });
+    }
+  }
+  const norm2 = maxCellCount > 0 ? 1 / maxCellCount : 0;
+  for (const cell of cells) {
+    cell.density = cell.count * norm2;
+  }
+  return {
+    lenses: lensOrder,
+    stages: [...STAGE_ORDER],
+    cells,
+    maxCellCount,
+    total
+  };
+}
+function cellAt(view, lens, stage) {
+  return view.cells.find((c) => c.lens === lens && c.stage === stage) ?? null;
+}
+
+// src/pipeline.ts
 import {
   beliefRisk,
   beliefTestMeters,
@@ -2156,6 +2330,10 @@ function buildPipeline(assumptions, experiments) {
     };
     const framed = assumptionCompleteness(a);
     const stage = deriveBeliefStage({ framed, confidence: d.confidence, test });
+    const questionType = str3(a["Question Type"]);
+    const stageName = str3(a.Stage);
+    const stageKey = stageName && STAGE_ORDER.includes(stageName) ? stageName : null;
+    const riskThreshold = stageKey ? riskThresholdForStage2(stageKey) : null;
     rows.push({
       id: a.id,
       statement: str3(a.Title),
@@ -2168,7 +2346,11 @@ function buildPipeline(assumptions, experiments) {
       framed: stage.framed,
       planned: stage.planned,
       tested: stage.tested,
-      nextMove: nextMove(stage.stage, stage.killZone)
+      nextMove: nextMove(stage.stage, stage.killZone),
+      questionType,
+      stage: stageName,
+      riskThreshold,
+      clearedThreshold: riskThreshold != null ? d.risk <= riskThreshold : null
     });
   }
   rows.sort(
@@ -2188,8 +2370,13 @@ function weekOverWeekDelta(assumptions, readings, now) {
   });
   if (!anyDated) return null;
   const cutoff = now.getTime() - 7 * 24 * 60 * 60 * 1e3;
+  const assumptionsById = new Map(
+    assumptions.map((a) => [String(a.id), a])
+  );
   const byAssumption = /* @__PURE__ */ new Map();
-  for (const input of readings.flatMap(readingBeliefInputs)) {
+  for (const input of readings.flatMap(
+    (r) => readingBeliefInputs(r, assumptionsById)
+  )) {
     if (!input.assumptionId) continue;
     const arr = byAssumption.get(input.assumptionId);
     if (arr) arr.push(input);
@@ -2408,111 +2595,6 @@ function stageMeters(input) {
   ];
 }
 
-// src/stage-grid-model.ts
-var STAGE_ORDER = [
-  "Discovery",
-  "Validation",
-  "Scale",
-  "Maturity"
-];
-var STAGE_GLOSS = {
-  Discovery: "Problem-solution fit \u2014 will they engage, care, disclose?",
-  Validation: "Product-market fit \u2014 will they pay, sign, stay?",
-  Scale: "Growth \u2014 can we acquire efficiently, does CAC<LTV hold at volume?",
-  Maturity: "Defense \u2014 will incumbents respond, will regulators accept?"
-};
-var NO_LENS = "\u2014";
-var NO_STAGE = "\u2014";
-function stageOf(record) {
-  const v = str(record.Stage);
-  if (!v) return null;
-  return STAGE_ORDER.includes(v) ? v : null;
-}
-function rankByRisk(records) {
-  return [...records].map((r) => ({ r, risk: derivedNum(r, "risk") ?? 0 })).sort(
-    (a, b) => a.risk !== b.risk ? b.risk - a.risk : a.r.id.localeCompare(b.r.id)
-  ).map((x) => x.r);
-}
-function buildStageGrid(assumptions) {
-  const lensOrder = [];
-  const seenLens = /* @__PURE__ */ new Set();
-  const pushLens = (lens) => {
-    if (!seenLens.has(lens)) {
-      seenLens.add(lens);
-      lensOrder.push(lens);
-    }
-  };
-  const buckets = /* @__PURE__ */ new Map();
-  const ensureLens = (lens) => {
-    let m = buckets.get(lens);
-    if (!m) {
-      m = /* @__PURE__ */ new Map();
-      buckets.set(lens, m);
-    }
-    return m;
-  };
-  let hasNoLens = false;
-  let hasNoStage = false;
-  for (const a of assumptions) {
-    const lens = str(a.Lens) ?? NO_LENS;
-    const stage = stageOf(a) ?? NO_STAGE;
-    if (lens === NO_LENS) hasNoLens = true;
-    if (stage === NO_STAGE) hasNoStage = true;
-    pushLens(lens);
-    const byStage = ensureLens(lens);
-    let list = byStage.get(stage);
-    if (!list) {
-      list = [];
-      byStage.set(stage, list);
-    }
-    list.push(a);
-  }
-  if (hasNoLens) {
-    lensOrder.splice(lensOrder.indexOf(NO_LENS), 1);
-    lensOrder.push(NO_LENS);
-  } else {
-    const idx = lensOrder.indexOf(NO_LENS);
-    if (idx >= 0) lensOrder.splice(idx, 1);
-  }
-  const stageOrder = [...STAGE_ORDER];
-  if (hasNoStage) stageOrder.push(NO_STAGE);
-  const cells = [];
-  let maxCellCount = 0;
-  let total = 0;
-  for (const lens of lensOrder) {
-    const byStage = buckets.get(lens) ?? /* @__PURE__ */ new Map();
-    for (const stage of stageOrder) {
-      const records = byStage.get(stage) ?? [];
-      const ranked = rankByRisk(records);
-      const count = ranked.length;
-      maxCellCount = Math.max(maxCellCount, count);
-      total += count;
-      cells.push({
-        lens,
-        stage,
-        count,
-        assumptions: ranked,
-        // density filled in a second pass once maxCellCount is known.
-        density: 0
-      });
-    }
-  }
-  const norm2 = maxCellCount > 0 ? 1 / maxCellCount : 0;
-  for (const cell of cells) {
-    cell.density = cell.count * norm2;
-  }
-  return {
-    lenses: lensOrder,
-    stages: [...STAGE_ORDER],
-    cells,
-    maxCellCount,
-    total
-  };
-}
-function cellAt(view, lens, stage) {
-  return view.cells.find((c) => c.lens === lens && c.stage === stage) ?? null;
-}
-
 // src/assumptions-surface.tsx
 import { Fragment as Fragment4, jsx as jsx5, jsxs as jsxs5 } from "react/jsx-runtime";
 function AssumptionsSurface({
@@ -2779,7 +2861,17 @@ function PipelineRowView({ row, onOpen }) {
         /* @__PURE__ */ jsxs5("span", { className: "vos-num", children: [
           "conf ",
           formatSigned(row.confidence)
-        ] })
+        ] }),
+        row.questionType ? /* @__PURE__ */ jsx5("span", { className: "vos-pipe-tag vos-pipe-tag-qt", children: row.questionType }) : null,
+        row.stage ? /* @__PURE__ */ jsx5("span", { className: "vos-pipe-tag vos-pipe-tag-stage", children: row.stage }) : null,
+        row.riskThreshold != null ? /* @__PURE__ */ jsx5(
+          "span",
+          {
+            className: `vos-pipe-tag vos-pipe-tag-thresh ${row.clearedThreshold ? "vos-pipe-tag-cleared" : "vos-pipe-tag-needs"}`,
+            title: `Stage threshold ${row.riskThreshold} \u2014 ${row.clearedThreshold ? "cleared for this stage" : "needs evidence"}`,
+            children: row.clearedThreshold ? "cleared" : `bar ${row.riskThreshold}`
+          }
+        ) : null
       ] })
     ] }),
     /* @__PURE__ */ jsx5("div", { className: "vos-pipe-prog-2seg", "aria-label": "Evidence progress (Framed + Known)", children: /* @__PURE__ */ jsx5(Meter2Seg, { framed: row.framed, knownPct, knownSign }) }),
@@ -2808,6 +2900,7 @@ function NextMovesSection({
   recs,
   onOpenAssumption
 }) {
+  const [openRec, setOpenRec] = useState3(null);
   return /* @__PURE__ */ jsxs5("div", { className: "vos-next-moves", children: [
     /* @__PURE__ */ jsx5("div", { className: "vos-next-moves-head", children: "Next moves" }),
     /* @__PURE__ */ jsxs5("div", { className: "vos-next-moves-cols", children: [
@@ -2847,38 +2940,118 @@ function NextMovesSection({
       ] }),
       /* @__PURE__ */ jsxs5("div", { className: "vos-card vos-next-moves-col", children: [
         /* @__PURE__ */ jsx5("div", { className: "vos-next-moves-col-label", children: "Proposed experiments \xB7 one per lens" }),
-        recs.length === 0 ? /* @__PURE__ */ jsx5("div", { className: "vos-muted vos-next-moves-empty", children: "Every risk has a live test." }) : recs.map((rec) => /* @__PURE__ */ jsxs5("div", { className: "vos-next-moves-rec", children: [
-          /* @__PURE__ */ jsxs5("div", { className: "vos-next-moves-rec-head", children: [
-            /* @__PURE__ */ jsx5(
-              "span",
-              {
-                className: "vos-next-moves-lens",
-                style: { background: `${rec.lensColour}20`, color: rec.lensColour, borderColor: `${rec.lensColour}40` },
-                children: rec.lens
-              }
-            ),
-            /* @__PURE__ */ jsx5("span", { className: "vos-next-moves-rec-type", children: rec.type }),
-            /* @__PURE__ */ jsxs5("span", { className: "vos-next-moves-rec-risk vos-num", children: [
-              Math.round(rec.maxRisk),
-              " risk"
+        recs.length === 0 ? /* @__PURE__ */ jsx5("div", { className: "vos-muted vos-next-moves-empty", children: "Every risk has a live test." }) : recs.map((rec) => /* @__PURE__ */ jsxs5(
+          "button",
+          {
+            type: "button",
+            className: "vos-next-moves-rec vos-next-moves-rec-compact",
+            onClick: () => setOpenRec(rec),
+            children: [
+              /* @__PURE__ */ jsxs5("div", { className: "vos-next-moves-rec-head", children: [
+                /* @__PURE__ */ jsx5(
+                  "span",
+                  {
+                    className: "vos-next-moves-lens",
+                    style: { background: `${rec.lensColour}20`, color: rec.lensColour, borderColor: `${rec.lensColour}40` },
+                    children: rec.lens
+                  }
+                ),
+                /* @__PURE__ */ jsx5("span", { className: "vos-next-moves-rec-type", children: rec.type }),
+                /* @__PURE__ */ jsxs5("span", { className: "vos-next-moves-rec-risk vos-num", children: [
+                  Math.round(rec.maxRisk),
+                  " risk"
+                ] })
+              ] }),
+              /* @__PURE__ */ jsx5("div", { className: "vos-next-moves-rec-title", children: rec.title }),
+              /* @__PURE__ */ jsx5("span", { className: "vos-next-moves-rec-open", "aria-hidden": "true", children: "\u2192" })
+            ]
+          },
+          rec.id
+        ))
+      ] })
+    ] }),
+    openRec ? /* @__PURE__ */ jsx5(
+      RecommendedExperimentDrawer,
+      {
+        rec: openRec,
+        onOpenAssumption,
+        onClose: () => setOpenRec(null)
+      }
+    ) : null
+  ] });
+}
+function RecommendedExperimentDrawer({
+  rec,
+  onOpenAssumption,
+  onClose
+}) {
+  return /* @__PURE__ */ jsxs5(Fragment4, { children: [
+    /* @__PURE__ */ jsx5("div", { className: "vos-scrim", onClick: onClose, "aria-hidden": "true" }),
+    /* @__PURE__ */ jsxs5(
+      "aside",
+      {
+        className: "vos-drawer vos-rec-drawer",
+        role: "dialog",
+        "aria-modal": "true",
+        "aria-label": `Proposed experiment: ${rec.title}`,
+        children: [
+          /* @__PURE__ */ jsxs5("div", { className: "vos-drawer-header", children: [
+            /* @__PURE__ */ jsxs5("div", { children: [
+              /* @__PURE__ */ jsx5("div", { className: "vos-drawer-eyebrow", children: "Proposed experiment" }),
+              /* @__PURE__ */ jsx5("h2", { className: "vos-drawer-title", children: rec.title })
+            ] }),
+            /* @__PURE__ */ jsxs5("div", { style: { marginLeft: "auto", display: "flex", gap: 8, alignItems: "center" }, children: [
+              /* @__PURE__ */ jsx5(
+                "span",
+                {
+                  className: "vos-next-moves-lens",
+                  style: { background: `${rec.lensColour}20`, color: rec.lensColour, borderColor: `${rec.lensColour}40` },
+                  children: rec.lens
+                }
+              ),
+              /* @__PURE__ */ jsx5("span", { className: "vos-next-moves-rec-type", children: rec.type }),
+              /* @__PURE__ */ jsxs5("span", { className: "vos-next-moves-rec-risk vos-num", children: [
+                Math.round(rec.maxRisk),
+                " risk"
+              ] }),
+              /* @__PURE__ */ jsx5("button", { type: "button", className: "vos-btn vos-btn-sm", onClick: onClose, "aria-label": "Close", children: "\u2715" })
             ] })
           ] }),
-          /* @__PURE__ */ jsx5("div", { className: "vos-next-moves-rec-title", children: rec.title }),
-          /* @__PURE__ */ jsx5("div", { className: "vos-next-moves-rec-rationale", children: rec.rationale }),
-          /* @__PURE__ */ jsx5("div", { className: "vos-next-moves-rec-chips", children: rec.assumptionIds.map((id) => /* @__PURE__ */ jsx5(
-            "button",
-            {
-              type: "button",
-              className: "vos-next-moves-rec-chip",
-              onClick: () => onOpenAssumption(id),
-              children: id
-            },
-            id
-          )) }),
-          /* @__PURE__ */ jsx5("div", { className: "vos-next-moves-rec-actions", children: /* @__PURE__ */ jsx5("button", { type: "button", className: "vos-btn vos-btn-sm", children: "Accept & create experiment" }) })
-        ] }, rec.id))
-      ] })
-    ] })
+          /* @__PURE__ */ jsxs5("div", { className: "vos-drawer-body", children: [
+            /* @__PURE__ */ jsxs5("div", { className: "vos-rec-drawer-section", children: [
+              /* @__PURE__ */ jsx5("div", { className: "vos-drawer-eyebrow", children: "Why this test" }),
+              /* @__PURE__ */ jsx5("p", { className: "vos-rec-drawer-rationale", children: rec.rationale })
+            ] }),
+            /* @__PURE__ */ jsxs5("div", { className: "vos-rec-drawer-section", children: [
+              /* @__PURE__ */ jsx5("div", { className: "vos-drawer-eyebrow", children: "Bar" }),
+              /* @__PURE__ */ jsxs5("div", { className: "vos-rec-drawer-bar", children: [
+                /* @__PURE__ */ jsx5("strong", { children: "Right if:" }),
+                " ",
+                rec.barPreview
+              ] })
+            ] }),
+            /* @__PURE__ */ jsxs5("div", { className: "vos-rec-drawer-section", children: [
+              /* @__PURE__ */ jsx5("div", { className: "vos-drawer-eyebrow", children: "Assumptions" }),
+              /* @__PURE__ */ jsx5("div", { className: "vos-next-moves-rec-chips", children: rec.assumptionIds.map((id) => /* @__PURE__ */ jsx5(
+                "button",
+                {
+                  type: "button",
+                  className: "vos-next-moves-rec-chip",
+                  onClick: () => onOpenAssumption(id),
+                  children: id
+                },
+                id
+              )) })
+            ] }),
+            /* @__PURE__ */ jsxs5("div", { className: "vos-rec-drawer-section", children: [
+              /* @__PURE__ */ jsx5("div", { className: "vos-drawer-eyebrow", children: "Protocol" }),
+              /* @__PURE__ */ jsx5("div", { className: "vos-rec-drawer-body", children: /* @__PURE__ */ jsx5(EvidenceBody, { text: rec.body }) })
+            ] })
+          ] }),
+          /* @__PURE__ */ jsx5("div", { className: "vos-drawer-footer", children: /* @__PURE__ */ jsx5("button", { type: "button", className: "vos-btn vos-btn-sm vos-btn-accent", children: "Accept & create experiment" }) })
+        ]
+      }
+    )
   ] });
 }
 function riskToneClass(risk) {
@@ -3733,9 +3906,9 @@ function barVerdictFor(exp, assumptionId) {
   const line = bars.find((b) => b.assumptionId === assumptionId);
   return line?.barVerdict ?? null;
 }
-function buildCycles(assumptionId, readings, experiments) {
+function buildCycles(assumptionId, readings, experiments, assumptionsById) {
   const mine = readings.filter((r) => readingGrades(r, assumptionId));
-  const inputs = readings.flatMap(readingBeliefInputs2).filter((i) => i.assumptionId === assumptionId);
+  const inputs = readings.flatMap((r) => readingBeliefInputs2(r, assumptionsById)).filter((i) => i.assumptionId === assumptionId);
   const { movers } = confidenceAttribution(inputs);
   const moverByKey = new Map(movers.map((m) => [m.key, m]));
   const byExperiment = /* @__PURE__ */ new Map();
@@ -3859,7 +4032,10 @@ function buildJourney(assumptionId, records, now) {
   const test = beliefTestMeters2(live.map(toStageExperimentInput)).get(assumptionId) ?? emptyTestMeter();
   const framed = assumptionCompleteness2(belief2);
   const stage = deriveBeliefStage2({ framed, confidence: confidence2, test });
-  const myReadingInputs = records.readings.flatMap(readingBeliefInputs3).filter((i) => i.assumptionId === assumptionId);
+  const assumptionsById = new Map(
+    records.assumptions.map((a) => [String(a.id), a])
+  );
+  const myReadingInputs = records.readings.flatMap((r) => readingBeliefInputs3(r, assumptionsById)).filter((i) => i.assumptionId === assumptionId);
   const myExperiments = live.filter((e) => testsAssumption(e, assumptionId)).map((e) => ({ id: e.id, date: str4(e.Date) || str4(e.createdAt) || null }));
   const events = assembleJourney({
     belief: {
@@ -3873,7 +4049,12 @@ function buildJourney(assumptionId, records, now) {
   const nextMove2 = rankNextMoves(toNextMoveInput(records)).find(
     (m) => m.assumptionId === assumptionId
   ) ?? null;
-  const cycles = buildCycles(assumptionId, records.readings, records.experiments);
+  const cycles = buildCycles(
+    assumptionId,
+    records.readings,
+    records.experiments,
+    assumptionsById
+  );
   return {
     id: assumptionId,
     statement: str4(belief2.Title),
@@ -4462,7 +4643,8 @@ import {
   isConcluded as isConcluded2
 } from "@validation-os/core/derivation";
 function buildUnderstanding(assumption, readings, experiments) {
-  const inputs = readings.flatMap(readingBeliefInputs4).filter((i) => i.assumptionId === assumption.id);
+  const assumptionsById = /* @__PURE__ */ new Map([[String(assumption.id), assumption]]);
+  const inputs = readings.flatMap((r) => readingBeliefInputs4(r, assumptionsById)).filter((i) => i.assumptionId === assumption.id);
   const { confidence: confidence2, movers } = confidenceAttribution2(inputs);
   const experimentsById = new Map(experiments.map((e) => [e.id, e]));
   const moverByExperiment = new Map(
@@ -7739,7 +7921,7 @@ function RegisterCounts({
 import { useMemo as useMemo10, useState as useState17 } from "react";
 import { rankNextMoves as rankNextMoves2 } from "@validation-os/core/derivation";
 import { Fragment as Fragment12, jsx as jsx30, jsxs as jsxs30 } from "react/jsx-runtime";
-var STAGES = ["Framed", "Planned", "Tested", "Known"];
+var STAGES2 = ["Framed", "Planned", "Tested", "Known"];
 var MOVE_STAGE = {
   "score-impact": 0,
   "design-experiment": 1,
@@ -8007,7 +8189,7 @@ function WhyPanel({ top, ranked }) {
 }
 function StageStepper({ move }) {
   const at = MOVE_STAGE[move];
-  return /* @__PURE__ */ jsx30("div", { className: "vos-stepper", "aria-label": `Stage: ${STAGES[at]}`, children: STAGES.map((label, i) => /* @__PURE__ */ jsx30(
+  return /* @__PURE__ */ jsx30("div", { className: "vos-stepper", "aria-label": `Stage: ${STAGES2[at]}`, children: STAGES2.map((label, i) => /* @__PURE__ */ jsx30(
     "span",
     {
       className: `vos-step${i === at ? " vos-step-at" : ""}${i < at ? " vos-step-done" : ""}`,