@validation-os/dashboard 0.15.2 → 0.15.4

package/dist/index.js

@@ -219,6 +219,75 @@ function buildEvidenceComposition(assumption, readings) {
   };
 }
 
+// src/confidence-explainer.ts
+import { RUNG_ANCHOR, W0_BY_RUNG } from "@validation-os/core/derivation";
+var RUNG_INFO = {
+  Talk: {
+    label: "Talk",
+    description: "Opinions, pitch reactions, anecdotes. Quick to get but slow to move the needle \u2014 needs ~10 distinct sources to approach the cap."
+  },
+  "Desk research": {
+    label: "Desk research",
+    description: "Published sources, competitor analysis, market reports. Authoritative \u2014 2 strong sources nearly saturate this rung."
+  },
+  "Signed up": {
+    label: "Signed up (Consumer)",
+    description: "Consumers signing up for the product. A do-rung \u2014 20 signups bring this to ~75% of its cap."
+  },
+  "Observed usage": {
+    label: "Observed usage (Consumer)",
+    description: "Prototype usage, analytics, telemetry. A do-rung \u2014 20 observed users bring this to ~75% of its cap."
+  },
+  "Signed intent": {
+    label: "Signed intent (Commercial)",
+    description: "LOIs, signed letters of intent from businesses. A do-rung \u2014 20 signed intents bring this to ~75% of its cap."
+  },
+  "Paying users": {
+    label: "Paying users (Commercial)",
+    description: "Closed commitments \u2014 revenue. The strongest do-rung \u2014 20 paying users bring this to ~75% of its cap."
+  }
+};
+function buildConfidenceExplainer(assumption, readings) {
+  const comp = buildEvidenceComposition(assumption, readings);
+  const lens = str(assumption.Lens) ?? "";
+  const lensRungs = new Set(comp.rungs.map((r) => r.rung));
+  const allRungs = [
+    "Talk",
+    "Desk research",
+    "Signed up",
+    "Observed usage",
+    "Signed intent",
+    "Paying users"
+  ];
+  const rungs = allRungs.map((rung) => {
+    const e = comp.rungs.find((r) => r.rung === rung);
+    const info = RUNG_INFO[rung] ?? { label: rung, description: "" };
+    return {
+      rung,
+      w0: W0_BY_RUNG[rung] ?? 100,
+      anchors: RUNG_ANCHOR[rung] ?? { Low: 0, Typical: 0, High: 0 },
+      contribution: e?.contribution ?? 0,
+      count: e?.count ?? 0,
+      inLens: lensRungs.has(rung),
+      label: info.label,
+      description: info.description
+    };
+  });
+  const confidence2 = assumption.derived?.confidence ?? 0;
+  const totalContribution = comp.totalContribution;
+  const rungsWithEvidence = rungs.filter((r) => r.count > 0);
+  const w0Sum = rungsWithEvidence.reduce((s, r) => s + r.w0, 0);
+  const summary = rungsWithEvidence.length === 0 ? "No concluded evidence yet. Confidence is 0 \u2014 the bet is open. Any Validated or Invalidated evidence at any rung will start moving this number." : rungsWithEvidence.length === 1 ? `All evidence is at the ${rungsWithEvidence[0].rung} rung (${rungsWithEvidence[0].count} source${rungsWithEvidence[0].count === 1 ? "" : "s"}). ${rungsWithEvidence[0].description}` : `Evidence spans ${rungsWithEvidence.length} rungs. The strongest push comes from ${rungs.reduce((a, b) => Math.abs(b.contribution) > Math.abs(a.contribution) ? b : a).rung}.`;
+  return {
+    confidence: confidence2,
+    formula: "Confidence = \u03A3(weight \xD7 strength) / (\u03A3 W0[rungs with evidence] + \u03A3 weights)",
+    rungs,
+    totalContribution,
+    denominator: w0Sum,
+    summary
+  };
+}
+
 // src/markdown.tsx
 import { useState } from "react";
 import { jsx as jsx2, jsxs as jsxs2 } from "react/jsx-runtime";
@@ -1426,6 +1495,7 @@ function AssumptionDetail({
       /* @__PURE__ */ jsx4(ScoreCard, { label: "Framed", value: `${Math.round(framed)}%` })
     ] }),
     /* @__PURE__ */ jsx4(EvidenceCompositionView, { assumption: record, readings: readings.records ?? [] }),
+    /* @__PURE__ */ jsx4(ConfidenceExplainerView, { assumption: record, readings: readings.records ?? [] }),
     statement ? /* @__PURE__ */ jsxs4("div", { className: "vos-card vos-detail-section", children: [
       /* @__PURE__ */ jsx4("div", { className: "vos-detail-section-label", children: "Body" }),
       /* @__PURE__ */ jsx4(GlossaryText, { text: statement, terms: glossaryTerms, selfId: assumptionId })
@@ -1513,11 +1583,10 @@ function AssumptionDetail({
                 /* @__PURE__ */ jsx4("span", { className: `vos-pill vos-pill-${verdictTone(result)}`, children: result }),
                 /* @__PURE__ */ jsx4("span", { className: "vos-rung-tag", children: rung })
               ] }),
-              /* @__PURE__ */ jsxs4("div", { className: `vos-reading-excerpt vos-verdict-border-${verdictTone(result)}`, children: [
-                '"',
-                justification,
-                '"'
-              ] }),
+              justification ? /* @__PURE__ */ jsxs4("div", { className: `vos-belief-rationale vos-verdict-border-${verdictTone(result)}`, children: [
+                /* @__PURE__ */ jsx4("span", { className: "vos-belief-rationale-label", children: "grading rationale:" }),
+                justification
+              ] }) : null,
               /* @__PURE__ */ jsxs4("div", { className: "vos-reading-source", children: [
                 source,
                 expId ? /* @__PURE__ */ jsxs4(Fragment3, { children: [
@@ -1631,6 +1700,72 @@ function nextMoveFor(assumption, experiments) {
   if (framed) return "Design an experiment";
   return "Frame the belief";
 }
+function ConfidenceExplainerView({
+  assumption,
+  readings
+}) {
+  const view = useMemo(
+    () => buildConfidenceExplainer(assumption, readings),
+    [assumption, readings]
+  );
+  return /* @__PURE__ */ jsxs4("details", { className: "vos-card vos-detail-section vos-explainer", children: [
+    /* @__PURE__ */ jsxs4("summary", { className: "vos-explainer-summary", children: [
+      /* @__PURE__ */ jsx4("span", { className: "vos-detail-section-label", children: "How Confidence is calculated" }),
+      /* @__PURE__ */ jsx4("span", { className: "vos-explainer-conf vos-num", children: formatSigned(view.confidence) })
+    ] }),
+    /* @__PURE__ */ jsxs4("div", { className: "vos-explainer-body", children: [
+      /* @__PURE__ */ jsx4("p", { className: "vos-explainer-formula", children: view.formula }),
+      /* @__PURE__ */ jsx4("p", { className: "vos-explainer-summary-text", children: view.summary }),
+      /* @__PURE__ */ jsxs4("div", { className: "vos-explainer-rungs", children: [
+        /* @__PURE__ */ jsxs4("div", { className: "vos-explainer-rungs-head", children: [
+          /* @__PURE__ */ jsx4("span", { children: "Rung" }),
+          /* @__PURE__ */ jsx4("span", { children: "W0 (prior)" }),
+          /* @__PURE__ */ jsx4("span", { children: "Anchors (L/T/H)" }),
+          /* @__PURE__ */ jsx4("span", { children: "Evidence" }),
+          /* @__PURE__ */ jsx4("span", { children: "Contribution" })
+        ] }),
+        view.rungs.map((r) => /* @__PURE__ */ jsxs4(
+          "div",
+          {
+            className: `vos-explainer-rung ${!r.inLens ? "is-not-lens" : ""} ${r.count > 0 ? "has-evidence" : ""}`,
+            children: [
+              /* @__PURE__ */ jsx4("span", { className: "vos-explainer-rung-name", title: r.description, children: r.label }),
+              /* @__PURE__ */ jsx4("span", { className: "vos-explainer-rung-w0 vos-num", children: r.w0 }),
+              /* @__PURE__ */ jsxs4("span", { className: "vos-explainer-rung-anchors vos-num", children: [
+                r.anchors.Low,
+                "/",
+                r.anchors.Typical,
+                "/",
+                r.anchors.High
+              ] }),
+              /* @__PURE__ */ jsx4("span", { className: "vos-explainer-rung-count vos-num", children: r.count > 0 ? `${r.count} source${r.count === 1 ? "" : "s"}` : "\u2014" }),
+              /* @__PURE__ */ jsx4("span", { className: `vos-explainer-rung-contrib vos-num ${r.contribution > 0 ? "vos-text-good" : r.contribution < 0 ? "vos-text-crit" : ""}`, children: r.count > 0 ? formatSigned(r.contribution) : "\u2014" })
+            ]
+          },
+          r.rung
+        ))
+      ] }),
+      /* @__PURE__ */ jsxs4("div", { className: "vos-explainer-foot", children: [
+        /* @__PURE__ */ jsxs4("p", { children: [
+          /* @__PURE__ */ jsx4("strong", { children: "W0" }),
+          " = the prior weight for each rung \u2014 how many distinct sources it takes to approach that rung's cap. Desk research has a low W0 (2 \u2014 one authoritative source nearly saturates it); Talk has a higher W0 (6.5 \u2014 needs ~10 sources); do-rungs have high W0s (327 \u2014 needs ~20 sources to reach 75% of the cap)."
+        ] }),
+        /* @__PURE__ */ jsxs4("p", { children: [
+          /* @__PURE__ */ jsx4("strong", { children: "Strength" }),
+          " = the rung's anchor \xD7 the sign of the result (Validated = +, Invalidated = \u2212, Inconclusive = 0). The anchor is the band (Low/Typical/High) the evidence lands at."
+        ] }),
+        /* @__PURE__ */ jsxs4("p", { children: [
+          /* @__PURE__ */ jsx4("strong", { children: "Weight" }),
+          " = |Strength| \xD7 source quality \xD7 commitment factor (1.0 for evidence linked to an experiment, 0.85 for found evidence)."
+        ] }),
+        /* @__PURE__ */ jsxs4("p", { children: [
+          /* @__PURE__ */ jsx4("strong", { children: "Contribution" }),
+          " = (Weight \xD7 Strength) / denominator. The sum of all contributions equals Confidence. Evidence at a higher rung always outweighs evidence at a lower rung \u2014 the rung ladder dominates."
+        ] })
+      ] })
+    ] })
+  ] });
+}
 function EvidenceCompositionView({
   assumption,
   readings
@@ -1964,6 +2099,45 @@ function weekOverWeekDelta(assumptions, readings, now) {
 }
 
 // src/recommended-experiments.ts
+var MAX_RECOMMENDED = 2;
+var MAX_CLUSTER_SIZE = 3;
+var MAX_NEEDS_FRAMING = 3;
+function buildNeedsFraming(assumptions) {
+  const live = assumptions.filter((a) => {
+    const status = str(a.Status);
+    const moot = a.moot === true;
+    return !moot && (status === "Live" || status === "Draft");
+  });
+  const items = live.map((a) => {
+    const id = str(a.id) ?? "";
+    const completeness = derivedNum(a, "completeness") ?? 0;
+    const risk = derivedNum(a, "risk") ?? 0;
+    const lens = str(a.Lens) ?? "\u2014";
+    const stage = str(a.Stage) ?? "\u2014";
+    const title = str(a.Title) ?? id;
+    const hint = framingHint(a, completeness);
+    return { id, title, risk, completeness, lens, stage, hint };
+  }).filter((a) => a.completeness < 100);
+  const byLens = /* @__PURE__ */ new Map();
+  for (const item of items) {
+    const existing = byLens.get(item.lens);
+    if (!existing || item.risk > existing.risk) {
+      byLens.set(item.lens, item);
+    }
+  }
+  return [...byLens.values()].sort((a, b) => b.risk - a.risk).slice(0, MAX_NEEDS_FRAMING);
+}
+function framingHint(a, completeness) {
+  const hasScoring = Boolean(str(a["Scoring justification"]));
+  const hasDescription = Boolean(str(a.Description));
+  if (completeness < 50) {
+    return hasDescription ? "The belief is written but incomplete \u2014 fill in the scoring justification and any missing framing fields." : "The belief needs a description \u2014 what exactly is being claimed, in falsifiable terms.";
+  }
+  if (!hasScoring) {
+    return "Add a scoring justification \u2014 why is the Impact seed scored as it is?";
+  }
+  return "Nearly framed \u2014 check the 5 Whys and the metric for truth are complete.";
+}
 var LENS_TO_TYPE = {
   Consumer: "Observation",
   Commercial: "Test"
@@ -1992,16 +2166,22 @@ function buildRecommendedExperiments(assumptions, experiments) {
     if (bucket) bucket.push(a);
     else clusters.set(key, [a]);
   }
+  const clusterEntries = [...clusters.entries()].map(([key, cluster]) => {
+    const ranked = cluster.sort((a, b) => (derivedNum(b, "risk") ?? 0) - (derivedNum(a, "risk") ?? 0)).slice(0, MAX_CLUSTER_SIZE);
+    const maxRisk = Math.max(...ranked.map((a) => derivedNum(a, "risk") ?? 0), 0);
+    return { key, cluster: ranked, maxRisk };
+  }).sort((a, b) => b.maxRisk - a.maxRisk).slice(0, MAX_RECOMMENDED);
   const recs = [];
-  for (const [key, cluster] of clusters) {
-    const [lens, stage] = key.split("\xD7");
-    const risks = cluster.map((a) => derivedNum(a, "risk") ?? 0);
-    const maxRisk = Math.max(...risks, 0);
+  for (const { key, cluster, maxRisk } of clusterEntries) {
+    const lens = key.split("\xD7")[0] ?? "\u2014";
+    const stage = key.split("\xD7")[1] ?? "\u2014";
     const assumptionIds = cluster.map((a) => str(a.id) ?? "").filter(Boolean).sort();
     const type = LENS_TO_TYPE[lens ?? ""] ?? "Desk research";
+    const titles = cluster.map((a) => str(a.Title) ?? str(a.id) ?? "");
     const title = cluster.length === 1 ? `Test ${assumptionIds[0]}` : `Test ${cluster.length} ${lens} \xB7 ${stage} beliefs`;
     const rationale = cluster.length === 1 ? `One belief (${assumptionIds[0]}) at ${Math.round(maxRisk)} risk with no live test. Designing an experiment here would buy down the most risk.` : `${cluster.length} beliefs share ${lens} \xB7 ${stage}, the riskiest at ${Math.round(maxRisk)} risk. One experiment can address them all.`;
     const barPreview = `The riskiest belief moves out of the kill zone, or stays in it.`;
+    const body = generateExperimentBody(type, lens, stage, cluster, maxRisk);
     recs.push({
       id: assumptionIds.join("+"),
       type,
@@ -2009,7 +2189,8 @@ function buildRecommendedExperiments(assumptions, experiments) {
       assumptionIds,
       maxRisk,
       rationale,
-      barPreview
+      barPreview,
+      body
     });
   }
   recs.sort(
@@ -2017,6 +2198,29 @@ function buildRecommendedExperiments(assumptions, experiments) {
   );
   return recs;
 }
+function generateExperimentBody(type, lens, stage, cluster, maxRisk) {
+  const beliefs = cluster.map((a) => `- **${str(a.id)}**: ${str(a.Title) ?? str(a.id) ?? ""}`).join("\n");
+  const rung = type === "Observation" ? "Observed usage" : type === "Test" ? "Signed intent" : "Desk research";
+  return `## What this tests
+
+This ${type.toLowerCase()} addresses ${cluster.length} ${lens} \xB7 ${stage} belief${cluster.length === 1 ? "" : "s"} at ${Math.round(maxRisk)} risk \u2014 the riskiest untested cluster on the board.
+
+${beliefs}
+
+## How to run it
+
+${type === "Observation" ? `Set up a prototype or analytics instrument that captures real user behaviour. Watch how ${cluster.length === 1 ? "this belief plays out" : "these beliefs play out"} in actual usage \u2014 not what people say they'd do, but what they actually do. Log each observation as evidence at the **${rung}** rung.` : type === "Test" ? `Reach out to potential ${lens === "Consumer" ? "customers" : "businesses"} and seek a signed commitment \u2014 a letter of intent, a pre-order, a pilot agreement. The commitment is the evidence; it lands at the **${rung}** rung.` : `Research published sources, competitor behaviour, and market data. Find external evidence that bears on ${cluster.length === 1 ? "this belief" : "these beliefs"}. Log each source as evidence at the **Desk research** rung.`}
+
+## Questions to answer
+
+${cluster.map((a, i) => `${i + 1}. Does ${str(a.Title) ?? str(a.id) ?? ""} hold \u2014 or does the evidence break it?`).join("\n")}
+
+## Pre-registered bars
+
+- **Right if:** the riskiest belief moves out of the kill zone (Confidence > 0).
+- **Wrong if:** the evidence invalidates the riskiest belief (Confidence enters the kill zone).
+`;
+}
 
 // src/stage-meters.ts
 function clamp(pct2) {
@@ -2255,6 +2459,10 @@ function GridPane({
     () => buildRecommendedExperiments(assumptions, experiments),
     [assumptions, experiments]
   );
+  const needsFraming = useMemo2(
+    () => buildNeedsFraming(assumptions),
+    [assumptions]
+  );
   const cold = coldStartFor({
     assumptions,
     experiments,
@@ -2322,9 +2530,10 @@ function GridPane({
       ] }) }),
       /* @__PURE__ */ jsx5("p", { className: "vos-hint vos-stage-grid-foot", children: "The densest cell per row is where that part of the business is. Click a cell to drill into its assumptions, ranked by Risk; a single-assumption cell opens the detail directly." })
     ] }),
-    recs.length > 0 ? /* @__PURE__ */ jsx5(
-      RecommendedExperimentsSection,
+    needsFraming.length > 0 || recs.length > 0 ? /* @__PURE__ */ jsx5(
+      NextMovesSection,
       {
+        needsFraming,
         recs,
         onOpenAssumption: (id) => onNavigate({ name: "assumption", id })
       }
@@ -2461,37 +2670,84 @@ function Meter2Seg({
     ] })
   ] });
 }
-function RecommendedExperimentsSection({
+function NextMovesSection({
+  needsFraming,
   recs,
   onOpenAssumption
 }) {
-  return /* @__PURE__ */ jsxs5("div", { className: "vos-card vos-pipe-recs", children: [
-    /* @__PURE__ */ jsx5("div", { className: "vos-pipe-recs-head", children: "Recommended experiments \xB7 grouped by riskiest assumptions" }),
-    /* @__PURE__ */ jsx5("div", { className: "vos-pipe-recs-list", children: recs.map((rec) => /* @__PURE__ */ jsxs5("div", { className: "vos-pipe-rec", children: [
-      /* @__PURE__ */ jsxs5("div", { className: "vos-pipe-rec-head", children: [
-        /* @__PURE__ */ jsx5("span", { className: "vos-pipe-rec-type", children: rec.type }),
-        /* @__PURE__ */ jsx5("span", { className: "vos-pipe-rec-title", children: rec.title }),
-        /* @__PURE__ */ jsx5("button", { type: "button", className: "vos-btn vos-btn-sm vos-btn-accent", children: "Accept" })
+  return /* @__PURE__ */ jsxs5("div", { className: "vos-next-moves", children: [
+    /* @__PURE__ */ jsx5("div", { className: "vos-next-moves-head", children: "Next moves" }),
+    /* @__PURE__ */ jsxs5("div", { className: "vos-next-moves-cols", children: [
+      /* @__PURE__ */ jsxs5("div", { className: "vos-card vos-next-moves-col", children: [
+        /* @__PURE__ */ jsxs5("div", { className: "vos-next-moves-col-label", children: [
+          "Needs framing \xB7 top ",
+          needsFraming.length
+        ] }),
+        needsFraming.length === 0 ? /* @__PURE__ */ jsx5("div", { className: "vos-muted vos-next-moves-empty", children: "Every belief is fully framed." }) : needsFraming.map((a) => /* @__PURE__ */ jsxs5(
+          "button",
+          {
+            type: "button",
+            className: "vos-next-moves-item",
+            onClick: () => onOpenAssumption(a.id),
+            children: [
+              /* @__PURE__ */ jsxs5("div", { className: "vos-next-moves-item-head", children: [
+                /* @__PURE__ */ jsx5("span", { className: "vos-next-moves-item-id vos-num", children: a.id }),
+                /* @__PURE__ */ jsxs5("span", { className: `vos-next-moves-item-risk vos-num vos-text-${riskToneClass(a.risk)}`, children: [
+                  Math.round(a.risk),
+                  " risk"
+                ] })
+              ] }),
+              /* @__PURE__ */ jsx5("div", { className: "vos-next-moves-item-title", children: a.title }),
+              /* @__PURE__ */ jsx5("div", { className: "vos-next-moves-item-hint", children: a.hint })
+            ]
+          },
+          a.id
+        ))
       ] }),
-      /* @__PURE__ */ jsx5("div", { className: "vos-pipe-rec-chips", children: rec.assumptionIds.map((id) => /* @__PURE__ */ jsx5(
-        "button",
-        {
-          type: "button",
-          className: "vos-pipe-rec-chip",
-          onClick: () => onOpenAssumption(id),
-          children: id
-        },
-        id
-      )) }),
-      /* @__PURE__ */ jsx5("div", { className: "vos-pipe-rec-rationale", children: rec.rationale }),
-      /* @__PURE__ */ jsxs5("div", { className: "vos-pipe-rec-bar", children: [
-        /* @__PURE__ */ jsx5("strong", { children: "Right if:" }),
-        " ",
-        rec.barPreview
+      /* @__PURE__ */ jsxs5("div", { className: "vos-card vos-next-moves-col", children: [
+        /* @__PURE__ */ jsxs5("div", { className: "vos-next-moves-col-label", children: [
+          "Proposed experiments \xB7 top ",
+          recs.length
+        ] }),
+        recs.length === 0 ? /* @__PURE__ */ jsx5("div", { className: "vos-muted vos-next-moves-empty", children: "Every risk has a live test." }) : recs.map((rec) => /* @__PURE__ */ jsxs5("details", { className: "vos-pipe-rec vos-next-moves-rec", children: [
+          /* @__PURE__ */ jsxs5("summary", { className: "vos-pipe-rec-head", children: [
+            /* @__PURE__ */ jsx5("span", { className: "vos-pipe-rec-type", children: rec.type }),
+            /* @__PURE__ */ jsx5("span", { className: "vos-pipe-rec-title", children: rec.title }),
+            /* @__PURE__ */ jsxs5("span", { className: "vos-pipe-rec-risk vos-num", children: [
+              Math.round(rec.maxRisk),
+              " risk"
+            ] })
+          ] }),
+          /* @__PURE__ */ jsxs5("div", { className: "vos-pipe-rec-body-inner", children: [
+            /* @__PURE__ */ jsx5("div", { className: "vos-pipe-rec-chips", children: rec.assumptionIds.map((id) => /* @__PURE__ */ jsx5(
+              "button",
+              {
+                type: "button",
+                className: "vos-pipe-rec-chip",
+                onClick: () => onOpenAssumption(id),
+                children: id
+              },
+              id
+            )) }),
+            /* @__PURE__ */ jsx5("div", { className: "vos-pipe-rec-rationale", children: rec.rationale }),
+            /* @__PURE__ */ jsxs5("div", { className: "vos-pipe-rec-bar", children: [
+              /* @__PURE__ */ jsx5("strong", { children: "Right if:" }),
+              " ",
+              rec.barPreview
+            ] }),
+            /* @__PURE__ */ jsx5("div", { className: "vos-pipe-rec-body", children: /* @__PURE__ */ jsx5(EvidenceBody, { text: rec.body }) }),
+            /* @__PURE__ */ jsx5("div", { className: "vos-pipe-rec-actions", children: /* @__PURE__ */ jsx5("button", { type: "button", className: "vos-btn vos-btn-sm vos-btn-accent", children: "Accept & create experiment" }) })
+          ] })
+        ] }, rec.id))
       ] })
-    ] }, rec.id)) })
+    ] })
   ] });
 }
+function riskToneClass(risk) {
+  if (risk >= 70) return "crit";
+  if (risk >= 40) return "warn";
+  return "good";
+}
 function Breadcrumb2({
   trail
 }) {
@@ -2510,15 +2766,14 @@ function ConfidenceDonut({
   value,
   size = 56
 }) {
-  const r = size / 2 - 5;
+  const stroke = size > 60 ? 6 : 4;
+  const r = (size - stroke) / 2;
   const cx = size / 2;
   const cy = size / 2;
+  const circumference = 2 * Math.PI * r;
   const pct2 = Math.max(0, Math.min(100, value)) / 100;
+  const dash = pct2 * circumference;
   const color = value >= 67 ? "var(--vos-good)" : value >= 33 ? "var(--vos-warn)" : "var(--vos-crit)";
-  const endAngle = -Math.PI / 2 + pct2 * 2 * Math.PI;
-  const x2 = cx + r * Math.cos(endAngle);
-  const y2 = cy + r * Math.sin(endAngle);
-  const largeArc = pct2 > 0.5 ? 1 : 0;
   return /* @__PURE__ */ jsxs6("div", { className: "vos-donut", style: { width: size, height: size }, children: [
     /* @__PURE__ */ jsxs6("svg", { width: size, height: size, "aria-hidden": "true", children: [
       /* @__PURE__ */ jsx6(
@@ -2529,21 +2784,33 @@ function ConfidenceDonut({
           r,
           fill: "none",
           stroke: "var(--vos-surface-2)",
-          strokeWidth: 4
+          strokeWidth: stroke
         }
       ),
       value > 0 ? /* @__PURE__ */ jsx6(
-        "path",
+        "circle",
         {
-          d: `M ${cx} ${cy} L ${cx} ${cy - r} A ${r} ${r} 0 ${largeArc} 1 ${x2} ${y2} Z`,
-          fill: color,
-          opacity: 0.25,
+          cx,
+          cy,
+          r,
+          fill: "none",
           stroke: color,
-          strokeWidth: 1.5
+          strokeWidth: stroke,
+          strokeDasharray: `${dash} ${circumference - dash}`,
+          strokeDashoffset: 0,
+          strokeLinecap: "round",
+          transform: `rotate(-90 ${cx} ${cy})`
         }
       ) : null
     ] }),
-    /* @__PURE__ */ jsx6("span", { className: "vos-donut-num vos-num", style: { fontSize: size > 60 ? 18 : 14 }, children: Math.round(value) })
+    /* @__PURE__ */ jsx6(
+      "span",
+      {
+        className: "vos-donut-num vos-num",
+        style: { fontSize: size > 60 ? 20 : 14 },
+        children: Math.round(value)
+      }
+    )
   ] });
 }
 
@@ -2713,37 +2980,10 @@ function ExperimentDetail({
                 }
               )
             ] }),
-            beliefs.length > 0 ? /* @__PURE__ */ jsx7("div", { className: "vos-reading-quotes", children: beliefs.map((b) => {
-              const justification = String(b["Grading justification"] ?? "");
-              const excerpt = justification || truncate(String(r.body ?? ""), 120);
-              if (!excerpt) return null;
-              return /* @__PURE__ */ jsxs7(
-                "div",
-                {
-                  className: `vos-reading-quote vos-verdict-border-${verdictTone2(b.Result)}`,
-                  children: [
-                    /* @__PURE__ */ jsxs7("span", { className: "vos-reading-quote-id vos-num", children: [
-                      b.assumptionId,
-                      " \xB7"
-                    ] }),
-                    '"',
-                    excerpt,
-                    '"'
-                  ]
-                },
-                b.assumptionId
-              );
-            }) }) : null,
-            /* @__PURE__ */ jsxs7("div", { className: "vos-reading-beliefs-label", children: [
-              "ADDRESSES ",
-              beliefs.length,
-              " BELIEF",
-              beliefs.length === 1 ? "" : "S",
-              ":"
-            ] }),
             beliefs.map((b) => {
               const bl = barLines.find((x) => x.assumptionId === b.assumptionId);
               const a = (assumptions.records ?? []).find((x) => String(x.id) === b.assumptionId);
+              const justification = String(b["Grading justification"] ?? "");
               return /* @__PURE__ */ jsxs7("div", { className: `vos-belief-card vos-verdict-border-${verdictTone2(b.Result)}`, children: [
                 /* @__PURE__ */ jsxs7("div", { className: "vos-belief-head", children: [
                   /* @__PURE__ */ jsx7(
@@ -2759,7 +2999,12 @@ function ExperimentDetail({
                   /* @__PURE__ */ jsx7("span", { className: `vos-pill vos-pill-${verdictTone2(b.Result)}`, children: b.Result }),
                   /* @__PURE__ */ jsx7("span", { className: "vos-rung-tag", children: String(r.Rung ?? "") })
                 ] }),
+                justification ? /* @__PURE__ */ jsxs7("div", { className: `vos-belief-rationale vos-verdict-border-${verdictTone2(b.Result)}`, children: [
+                  /* @__PURE__ */ jsx7("span", { className: "vos-belief-rationale-label", children: "grading rationale:" }),
+                  justification
+                ] }) : null,
                 bl ? /* @__PURE__ */ jsxs7("div", { className: "vos-belief-bar", children: [
+                  /* @__PURE__ */ jsx7("div", { className: "vos-belief-bar-label", children: "Pre-registered bar" }),
                   /* @__PURE__ */ jsxs7("div", { children: [
                     /* @__PURE__ */ jsx7("strong", { children: "Right if:" }),
                     " ",
@@ -2774,8 +3019,7 @@ function ExperimentDetail({
                     "Bar verdict: ",
                     /* @__PURE__ */ jsx7("strong", { children: bl.barVerdict })
                   ] }) : null
-                ] }) : null,
-                /* @__PURE__ */ jsx7("div", { className: "vos-belief-why", children: String(b["Grading justification"] ?? "") })
+                ] }) : null
               ] }, b.assumptionId);
             })
           ] })
@@ -2827,10 +3071,6 @@ function ExperimentDetail({
 function pct(n, total) {
   return total === 0 ? 0 : n / total * 100;
 }
-function truncate(s, max) {
-  if (s.length <= max) return s;
-  return s.slice(0, max - 1) + "\u2026";
-}
 function verdictTone2(verdict) {
   if (verdict === "Validated") return "good";
   if (verdict === "Invalidated") return "crit";
@@ -2982,7 +3222,6 @@ function ReadingDetail({
         const bl = experiment && Array.isArray(experiment.barLines) ? experiment.barLines.find((x) => x?.assumptionId === b.assumptionId) : null;
         const result = String(b.Result ?? "Inconclusive");
         const justification = String(b["Grading justification"] ?? "");
-        const excerpt = justification || truncate2(body, 120);
         return /* @__PURE__ */ jsxs9("div", { className: `vos-belief-card vos-verdict-border-${verdictTone3(result)}`, children: [
           /* @__PURE__ */ jsxs9("div", { className: "vos-belief-head", children: [
             /* @__PURE__ */ jsx9(
@@ -2998,11 +3237,11 @@ function ReadingDetail({
             /* @__PURE__ */ jsx9("span", { className: `vos-pill vos-pill-${verdictTone3(result)}`, children: result }),
             /* @__PURE__ */ jsx9("span", { className: "vos-rung-tag", children: rung })
           ] }),
-          excerpt ? /* @__PURE__ */ jsxs9("div", { className: `vos-belief-excerpt vos-verdict-border-${verdictTone3(result)}`, children: [
-            '"',
-            excerpt,
-            '"'
+          justification ? /* @__PURE__ */ jsxs9("div", { className: `vos-belief-rationale vos-verdict-border-${verdictTone3(result)}`, children: [
+            /* @__PURE__ */ jsx9("span", { className: "vos-belief-rationale-label", children: "grading rationale:" }),
+            justification
           ] }) : null,
+          body ? /* @__PURE__ */ jsx9("div", { className: "vos-belief-context-link vos-muted", children: "see context above for the full quote" }) : null,
           bl ? /* @__PURE__ */ jsxs9("div", { className: "vos-belief-bar", children: [
             /* @__PURE__ */ jsx9("div", { className: "vos-belief-bar-label", children: "Pre-registered bar" }),
             /* @__PURE__ */ jsxs9("div", { children: [
@@ -3049,10 +3288,6 @@ function verdictTone3(verdict) {
   if (verdict === "Invalidated") return "crit";
   return "neutral";
 }
-function truncate2(s, max) {
-  if (s.length <= max) return s;
-  return s.slice(0, max - 1) + "\u2026";
-}
 
 // src/readings-surface.tsx
 import { jsx as jsx10, jsxs as jsxs10 } from "react/jsx-runtime";
@@ -6800,15 +7035,6 @@ function ValidationOSDashboard({ config = {} }) {
       brandName
     ] }),
     /* @__PURE__ */ jsxs25("div", { className: "vos-topbar", children: [
-      backendLabel ? /* @__PURE__ */ jsxs25("div", { className: "vos-backend", children: [
-        /* @__PURE__ */ jsx25("span", { className: "vos-live-dot" }),
-        " Backend: ",
-        /* @__PURE__ */ jsx25("b", { children: backendLabel })
-      ] }) : null,
-      agentLabel ? /* @__PURE__ */ jsxs25("span", { className: "vos-hint", children: [
-        "Agent: ",
-        /* @__PURE__ */ jsx25("b", { style: { color: "var(--vos-text)" }, children: agentLabel })
-      ] }) : null,
       /* @__PURE__ */ jsx25("div", { className: "vos-spacer" }),
       /* @__PURE__ */ jsx25("button", { type: "button", className: "vos-iconbtn", onClick: toggleTheme, children: "\u25D0 Theme" }),
       user?.name ? /* @__PURE__ */ jsxs25("div", { className: "vos-user", children: [