@validation-os/core 0.15.3 → 0.15.5

package/dist/{chunk-7QK3MHU6.js → chunk-HMAHBGOJ.js}

@@ -651,4 +651,4 @@ export {
   assembleJourney,
   derivation_exports
 };
-//# sourceMappingURL=chunk-7QK3MHU6.js.map
+//# sourceMappingURL=chunk-HMAHBGOJ.js.map

package/dist/chunk-HMAHBGOJ.js.map

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+{"version":3,"sources":["../src/derivation/index.ts","../src/derivation/round.ts","../src/derivation/rung.ts","../src/derivation/completeness.ts","../src/derivation/strength.ts","../src/derivation/source-quality.ts","../src/types.ts","../src/derivation/confidence.ts","../src/derivation/attribution.ts","../src/derivation/progress.ts","../src/derivation/experiment-confidence.ts","../src/derivation/trajectory.ts","../src/derivation/impact.ts","../src/derivation/risk.ts","../src/derivation/portfolio.ts","../src/derivation/next-move.ts","../src/derivation/stage.ts","../src/derivation/journey.ts"],"sourcesContent":["/**\n * The shared derivation module — pure functions, no I/O.\n *\n * The same module the dashboard, the API (derive-on-write), and Claude Code\n * audits all call, so every writer computes the four derived numbers\n * identically. Ported from the instance's `migration/remodel.mjs` and\n * kept in lock-step with `skills/_shared/ontology.yaml`.\n */\nexport { round2 } from \"./round.js\";\nexport { RUNG_ANCHOR } from \"./rung.js\";\nexport {\n  COMPLETENESS_SLOTS,\n  completenessSlotPresence,\n  missingCompletenessSlots,\n  assumptionCompleteness,\n  assumptionComplete,\n} from \"./completeness.js\";\nexport type { CompletenessSlot, CompletenessInput } from \"./completeness.js\";\nexport { sign, isConcluded, readingStrength } from \"./strength.js\";\nexport type { StrengthInput } from \"./strength.js\";\nexport { sourceQuality } from \"./source-quality.js\";\nexport {\n  confidence,\n  scoreAndDedupe,\n  commitmentFactor,\n  COMMITMENT_FOUND,\n  W0,\n  W0_BY_RUNG,\n  w0ForRung,\n} from \"./confidence.js\";\nexport type { ConfidenceReadingInput, Scored } from \"./confidence.js\";\nexport { confidenceAttribution } from \"./attribution.js\";\nexport type {\n  Attribution,\n  AttributionReadingInput,\n  Mover,\n  MoverKind,\n} from \"./attribution.js\";\nexport { experimentProgress } from \"./progress.js\";\nexport type { BarLineInput, Progress } from \"./progress.js\";\nexport { experimentConfidence, MAX_STRENGTH } from \"./experiment-confidence.js\";\nexport type {\n  ExperimentConfidenceBarInput,\n  ExperimentConfidenceReadingInput,\n} from \"./experiment-confidence.js\";\nexport { confidenceTrajectory } from \"./trajectory.js\";\nexport type { TrajectoryPoint } from \"./trajectory.js\";\nexport { derivedImpacts } from \"./impact.js\";\nexport type { ImpactAssumptionInput } from \"./impact.js\";\nexport { risk } from \"./risk.js\";\nexport { beliefRisk, portfolioProgress } from \"./portfolio.js\";\nexport type {\n  BeliefRisk,\n  PortfolioBeliefInput,\n  PortfolioProgress,\n} from \"./portfolio.js\";\nexport { rankNextMoves, KILL_LANE_THRESHOLD } from \"./next-move.js\";\nexport type {\n  MoveKind,\n  NextMove,\n  NextMoveAssumptionInput,\n  NextMoveExperimentInput,\n  NextMoveDecisionInput,\n  NextMoveInput,\n} from \"./next-move.js\";\nexport {\n  beliefTestMeters,\n  classifyStage,\n  deriveBeliefStage,\n  emptyTestMeter,\n} from \"./stage.js\";\nexport type {\n  BeliefStage,\n  BeliefStageInput,\n  ConfSign,\n  StageExperimentInput,\n  StageKey,\n  TestMeter,\n} from \"./stage.js\";\nexport { assembleJourney } from \"./journey.js\";\nexport type {\n  AssembleJourneyInput,\n  JourneyBeliefInput,\n  JourneyEvent,\n  JourneyEventKind,\n  JourneyExperimentInput,\n} from \"./journey.js\";\n","/**\n * Round to 2 decimals, matching the migration's `+(n).toFixed(2)`.\n * Derived values are stored/displayed rounded; full precision is only used\n * transiently inside a single computation.\n */\nexport function round2(n: number): number {\n  return Number(n.toFixed(2));\n}\n","/**\n * The lens-aware ladder anchors (DEV-5879).\n *\n * Source of truth: `skills/_shared/ontology.yaml` → `vocabularies.rung`. A\n * rung is an evidence TYPE; magnitude band (Low/Typical/High) is the intensity\n * within a type. The band applies to EVERY rung, so every rung looks up its\n * anchor through `RUNG_ANCHOR[rung][band]`.\n *\n *   Talk:           3 / 6 / 10   (Opinion / Pitch-deck / Anecdotal merged)\n *   Desk research:  15 / 15 / 15 (flat — desk research has no meaningful bands,\n *                                  but the field exists for uniformity)\n *   Signed up:      30 / 50 / 70 (consumer lens's first do-rung)\n *   Observed usage: 30 / 50 / 70 (consumer lens; was Prototype usage + Survey\n *                                  at scale, now collapsed)\n *   Signed intent:  30 / 50 / 70 (commercial/investor lens)\n *   Paying users:   30 / 50 / 70 (commercial/investor lens)\n *\n * The lens determines which \"do\" rungs are available; Talk + Desk work for\n * any lens. The rung-to-lens mapping is a grading guideline, not a schema\n * constraint — any Rung can appear on any assumption.\n */\nimport type { MagnitudeBand, Rung } from \"../types.js\";\n\nexport const RUNG_ANCHOR: Record<Rung, Record<MagnitudeBand, number>> = {\n  Talk: { Low: 3, Typical: 6, High: 10 },\n  \"Desk research\": { Low: 15, Typical: 15, High: 15 },\n  \"Signed up\": { Low: 30, Typical: 50, High: 70 },\n  \"Observed usage\": { Low: 30, Typical: 50, High: 70 },\n  \"Signed intent\": { Low: 30, Typical: 50, High: 70 },\n  \"Paying users\": { Low: 30, Typical: 50, High: 70 },\n};","/**\n * Assumption completeness — a derived readiness meter, never stored.\n *\n * Replaces the old Gaps / presence-field machinery (OPS-1305): an assumption's\n * Draft-vs-Live readiness is the structural presence of its slots, not a set of\n * hand-maintained tags. `Completeness %` is `filled slots / all slots`; a\n * fully-filled assumption reads 100 and is Live-ready, an empty draft reads low.\n *\n * Slots (each an equal fifth):\n *   Description · Lens · Impact · Scoring justification · Dependencies traced\n *\n * Pure, no backend dependency — the same function the recompute pass stamps\n * into the derived tuple and the audit checks readiness against.\n */\n\n/** The structural slots whose presence makes an assumption Live-ready. */\nexport const COMPLETENESS_SLOTS = [\n  \"Description\",\n  \"Lens\",\n  \"Impact\",\n  \"Scoring justification\",\n  \"Dependencies traced\",\n] as const;\n\nexport type CompletenessSlot = (typeof COMPLETENESS_SLOTS)[number];\n\n/** The record shape completeness reads — an assumption's structural fields. */\nexport interface CompletenessInput {\n  Description?: unknown;\n  Lens?: unknown;\n  Impact?: unknown;\n  \"Scoring justification\"?: unknown;\n  dependsOnIds?: unknown;\n  enablesIds?: unknown;\n}\n\n/** A text slot is present only when it is a non-blank string. */\nfunction hasText(value: unknown): boolean {\n  return typeof value === \"string\" && value.trim().length > 0;\n}\n\n/** Impact is present when it is a real finite number (0 is a valid score). */\nfunction hasNumber(value: unknown): boolean {\n  return typeof value === \"number\" && Number.isFinite(value);\n}\n\n/** Dependencies are traced once at least one Depends on / Enables link exists. */\nfunction hasAny(value: unknown): boolean {\n  return Array.isArray(value) && value.length > 0;\n}\n\n/** Whether each slot is structurally present. */\nexport function completenessSlotPresence(\n  record: CompletenessInput,\n): Record<CompletenessSlot, boolean> {\n  return {\n    Description: hasText(record.Description),\n    Lens: hasText(record.Lens),\n    Impact: hasNumber(record.Impact),\n    \"Scoring justification\": hasText(record[\"Scoring justification\"]),\n    \"Dependencies traced\":\n      hasAny(record.dependsOnIds) || hasAny(record.enablesIds),\n  };\n}\n\n/** The slots that are absent or blank on a record. */\nexport function missingCompletenessSlots(\n  record: CompletenessInput,\n): CompletenessSlot[] {\n  const present = completenessSlotPresence(record);\n  return COMPLETENESS_SLOTS.filter((slot) => !present[slot]);\n}\n\n/** Completeness as a whole-number percentage (0, 20, 40, 60, 80, 100). */\nexport function assumptionCompleteness(record: CompletenessInput): number {\n  const present = completenessSlotPresence(record);\n  const filled = COMPLETENESS_SLOTS.filter((slot) => present[slot]).length;\n  return Math.round((filled / COMPLETENESS_SLOTS.length) * 100);\n}\n\n/** True when every slot is present — the structural precondition to be Live. */\nexport function assumptionComplete(record: CompletenessInput): boolean {\n  return missingCompletenessSlots(record).length === 0;\n}\n","/**\n * Strength — the signed reading value `s` the Confidence average reads.\n *\n * Formula (`ontology.yaml` → `derivations.strength`):\n *   rung anchor × magnitude band × sign(Result)\n *   — Validated positive, Invalidated negative; 0 unless Validated/Invalidated.\n *\n * Every rung now carries a magnitude band (0.14); the lookup is the same for\n * testing and market rungs.\n */\nimport type { MagnitudeBand, Result, Rung } from \"../types.js\";\nimport { RUNG_ANCHOR } from \"./rung.js\";\n\nexport function sign(result: Result): -1 | 0 | 1 {\n  if (result === \"Validated\") return 1;\n  if (result === \"Invalidated\") return -1;\n  return 0;\n}\n\n/** A reading counts toward Confidence only once concluded either way; an\n * Inconclusive reading carries no signal. The single definition the whole\n * derivation module (and its record→input mappers) share. */\nexport function isConcluded(result: Result): boolean {\n  return result === \"Validated\" || result === \"Invalidated\";\n}\n\nexport interface StrengthInput {\n  rung: Rung;\n  result: Result;\n  /** Magnitude band; defaults to \"Typical\" when absent. Applies to ALL rungs. */\n  magnitudeBand?: MagnitudeBand;\n}\n\nexport function readingStrength(input: StrengthInput): number {\n  const s = sign(input.result);\n  if (s === 0) return 0; // Inconclusive contributes nothing.\n  const band = input.magnitudeBand ?? \"Typical\";\n  return (RUNG_ANCHOR[input.rung]?.[band] ?? 0) * s;\n}","/**\n * Source quality — Representativeness × Credibility.\n *\n * Scales a Reading's *weight* in the Confidence average, within its rung.\n * We keep the raw product as the weight (matching the migration's\n * `remodel.mjs`); the five display anchors {0.25, 0.35, 0.5, 0.7, 1.0} are a\n * storage/display concern, not the weight used in the average.\n */\nimport { round2 } from \"./round.js\";\n\nexport function sourceQuality(\n  representativeness: number,\n  credibility: number,\n): number {\n  return round2(representativeness * credibility);\n}\n","/**\n * Shared registry types — the field vocabulary the whole system speaks.\n *\n * These mirror `skills/_shared/registry-schema.md` and `ontology.yaml` (the\n * single source of truth). Field *meaning* lives there; this file is the\n * checkable TypeScript shape the packages import.\n */\n\n/**\n * The five registers. `goals` was unified into `experiments` and the `people`\n * reference collection retired (OPS-1305): Owner / Agreed by now reference a\n * dashboard user (the auth-sourced team list), not a register row.\n */\nexport const REGISTERS = [\n  \"assumptions\",\n  \"experiments\",\n  \"readings\",\n  \"decisions\",\n  \"glossary\",\n] as const;\nexport type Register = (typeof REGISTERS)[number];\n\n/** There is no reference collection any more — a collection is a register. */\nexport type Collection = Register;\n\n/** Every stored record carries an id, a version, and timestamps. */\nexport interface BaseRecord {\n  id: string;\n  /** Optimistic-concurrency token; bumped on every write. */\n  version: number;\n  createdAt: string;\n  updatedAt: string;\n}\n\n// ── Vocabularies (canonical select-option lists) ────────────────────────────\n\nexport type AssumptionStatus = \"Draft\" | \"Live\" | \"Invalidated\";\n/**\n * The unified evidence-plan lifecycle (OPS-1305). `Draft` is the new gate a\n * commit clears (Draft→Running); conclude+verdict stays the Running→Closed\n * gate. Absorbs what the retired Goal record's status used to carry.\n */\nexport type ExperimentStatus = \"Draft\" | \"Running\" | \"Closed\" | \"Archived\";\nexport type DecisionStatus =\n  | \"Active\"\n  | \"Provisional\"\n  | \"Superseded\"\n  | \"Reversed\";\nexport type GlossaryStatus = \"Active\" | \"Provisional\" | \"Superseded\";\n\nexport type Result = \"Validated\" | \"Invalidated\" | \"Inconclusive\";\nexport type MagnitudeBand = \"Low\" | \"Typical\" | \"High\";\nexport type Feasibility = \"High\" | \"Medium\" | \"Low\";\n\n/**\n * The lens-aware ladder (DEV-5879). A rung is an evidence TYPE; magnitude band\n * (Low/Typical/High) is the intensity *within* a type. The band applies to\n * EVERY rung, so every rung looks up its anchor through\n * `RUNG_ANCHOR[rung][band]`.\n *\n *   Talk:           3 / 6 / 10   (Opinion / Pitch-deck / Anecdotal merged)\n *   Desk research:  15 / 15 / 15 (flat)\n *   Signed up:      30 / 50 / 70 (consumer lens's first do-rung)\n *   Observed usage: 30 / 50 / 70 (consumer lens; was Prototype usage + Survey\n *                                at scale)\n *   Signed intent:  30 / 50 / 70 (commercial/investor lens)\n *   Paying users:   30 / 50 / 70 (commercial/investor lens)\n *\n * The lens determines which \"do\" rungs are available; Talk + Desk work for any\n * lens. The rung-to-lens mapping is a grading guideline, not a schema\n * constraint — any Rung can appear on any assumption.\n */\nexport const TESTING_RUNGS = [\n  \"Talk\",\n  \"Desk research\",\n  \"Signed up\",\n  \"Observed usage\",\n] as const;\nexport const MARKET_RUNG_VALUES = [\"Signed intent\", \"Paying users\"] as const;\nexport type TestingRung = (typeof TESTING_RUNGS)[number];\nexport type MarketRung = (typeof MARKET_RUNG_VALUES)[number];\nexport type Rung = TestingRung | MarketRung;\n\n/** Representativeness and Credibility are each picked from these. */\nexport type SourceQualityPick = 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.5;\n\n// ── Records ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────\n\n/** The derived numbers stored on an assumption (never hand-typed). */\nexport interface AssumptionDerived {\n  derivedImpact: number;\n  risk: number;\n  confidence: number;\n  /** Structural readiness meter, 0–100 (see `derivation/completeness.ts`). */\n  completeness: number;\n}\n\nexport interface AssumptionRecord extends BaseRecord {\n  Title: string;\n  Description: string;\n  Lens: string | null;\n  Theme: string[];\n  /** The hand-scored seed (0–100), the only hand-scored number here. */\n  Impact: number | null;\n  Status: AssumptionStatus;\n  /** Reference to a dashboard user (auth team list), not a `people` row. */\n  Owner: string[];\n  moot: boolean;\n  /**\n   * Kept, narrowed to the Impact-seed rationale (OPS-1305): why the seed\n   * `Impact` was scored as it was, incl. dated moot lines. The `5 Whys`,\n   * `Metric for truth`, and `Gaps` fields are gone — the why-trace lives in the\n   * `Depends on / Enables` chain and the audit check-types are transient grill\n   * stages, not stored tags. Readiness is the derived `completeness`.\n   */\n  \"Scoring justification\": string;\n  dependsOnIds: string[];\n  enablesIds: string[];\n  contradictsIds: string[];\n  readingIds: string[];\n  derived: AssumptionDerived;\n}\n\n/**\n * One belief's scoring inside a reading — the per-assumption verdict an\n * artifact carries. A reading (one artifact ROW) may score several beliefs at\n * once. The Rung is a property of the artifact, so it (and the market magnitude\n * band) lives on the row, ONE per artifact (OPS 0.10): a reading is at a single\n * evidence rung and reads for/against each belief at that rung. Only the Result\n * and its rationale vary per belief. `strength` is derived (row rung × sign of\n * this belief's Result), never hand-typed.\n */\nexport interface BeliefScore {\n  assumptionId: string;\n  Result: Result;\n  /** The rationale for this belief's Result at the row's rung. */\n  \"Grading justification\": string;\n  /** The verbatim quote or observed fact this belief was graded from. */\n  excerpt?: string;\n  /** Derived per belief: row rung anchor × sign(Result) [× row magnitude band]. */\n  derived: { strength: number };\n  /** Provenance: the original reading id this belief was migrated from. */\n  sourceReadingId?: string;\n  /** Optional review caveat, e.g. a second-hand-credibility note. */\n  reviewNote?: string;\n}\n\nexport interface ReadingRecord extends BaseRecord {\n  Title: string;\n  /** The independence/dedupe key — the generator (person / dataset / cohort). */\n  Source: string | null;\n  /**\n   * Provenance links (recording, dashboard, CRM row, user id) — 0..N, drives no\n   * math and never keys dedupe (OPS-1305). Split out from `Source` so the\n   * dedupe key stays narrow.\n   */\n  contextLinks: string[];\n  /** The originating plan, or null for a bare/found reading (no Goal origin). */\n  experimentId: string | null;\n  /** The evidence rung — one per artifact; every belief is scored at it (OPS 0.10). */\n  Rung: Rung;\n  /** For a Market-rung reading: the magnitude band from the absolute outcome. */\n  magnitudeBand?: MagnitudeBand;\n  Representativeness: SourceQualityPick;\n  Credibility: SourceQualityPick;\n  Date: string | null;\n  Owner: string[];\n  /** Free-text narrative of the reading. */\n  body?: string;\n  /** Per-belief scores — one artifact row can score several beliefs at once. */\n  beliefs: BeliefScore[];\n  /** Convenience projection of `beliefs[].assumptionId`; kept in sync on write. */\n  assumptionIds: string[];\n  derived: { sourceQuality: number };\n}\n\n/**\n * A pre-registered bar line — the per-belief pass/fail test on an experiment,\n * stored as an embedded array on the experiment (no identity of its own; see\n * `connectors/nosql-schema.md`). `barVerdict` is set once at closure and is a\n * report only — never folded into Confidence.\n */\nexport interface BarLine {\n  assumptionId: string;\n  rightIf: string;\n  wrongIf?: string | null;\n  plannedRung: Rung;\n  barVerdict?: Result | null;\n}\n\n/**\n * The derived numbers stored on an experiment (never hand-typed).\n * `experimentConfidence` is the [0, 100] confidence gauge (50 = neutral),\n * coverage-gated and verdict-aligned; see `derivation/experiment-confidence.ts`.\n */\nexport interface ExperimentDerived {\n  experimentConfidence: number;\n}\n\nexport interface ExperimentRecord extends BaseRecord {\n  Title: string;\n  Instrument: string | null;\n  Feasibility: Feasibility | null;\n  Status: ExperimentStatus;\n  /** Free-text narrative of the plan. */\n  body?: string;\n  closureReason: \"Completed\" | \"Early-stop\" | \"Kill\" | null;\n  /** Optional deadline a committed plan carries (folded in from the Goal). */\n  Deadline: string | null;\n  /** Terminal closure outcome, null until Closed (folded in from the Goal). */\n  Outcome: \"Achieved\" | \"Missed\" | \"Dropped\" | null;\n  /** Reference to a dashboard user, not a `people` row. */\n  Owner: string[];\n  Date: string | null;\n  /** The embedded pre-registered bar lines; drives progress-to-conclusion. */\n  barLines: BarLine[];\n  /** Convenience projection: the assumptions the bar lines test. */\n  barLineAssumptionIds: string[];\n  /** Derived numbers — recomputed on every touching write. */\n  derived?: ExperimentDerived;\n}\n\nexport interface DecisionRecord extends BaseRecord {\n  Title: string;\n  Status: DecisionStatus;\n  /** The one-line statement of what was decided (promoted from the body). */\n  Statement: string;\n  /** Why the Unanimity score was scored as it was (promoted from the body). */\n  \"Unanimity justification\": string;\n  /** References to dashboard users (auth team list), not `people` rows. */\n  Owner: string[];\n  \"Agreed by\": string[];\n  basedOnIds: string[];\n  resolvesIds: string[];\n}\n\n/** One structured \"don't say\" entry on a glossary term. */\nexport interface GlossaryAvoid {\n  audience: string;\n  phrase: string;\n  fix: string;\n}\n\nexport interface GlossaryRecord extends BaseRecord {\n  Title: string;\n  Status: GlossaryStatus;\n  /** All properties, no body (OPS-1305): the terminology check parses these. */\n  Definition: string;\n  Avoid: GlossaryAvoid[];\n  \"How it differs\": string;\n}\n\n/** A record of any register — the DataProvider's currency. */\nexport type AnyRecord = BaseRecord & Record<string, unknown>;\n\n// ── Relations (both-ends links) ─────────────────────────────────────────────\n\n/** A pointer to one record. */\nexport interface RecordRef {\n  register: Collection;\n  id: string;\n}\n\n/** The relations the dashboard can set (each writes both ends). */\nexport type Relation =\n  | \"assumption-reading\"\n  | \"assumption-depends-on\"\n  | \"assumption-contradicts\"\n  | \"reading-experiment\"\n  | \"decision-based-on\"\n  | \"decision-resolves\";\n","/**\n * Confidence — signed −100…100, 0 = no evidence.\n *\n * Formula (`ontology.yaml` → `derivations.confidence`):\n *   (Σ wi·si) / (Σ_rung W0[rung] + Σ wi),  per-rung W0,\n *   wi = |si| × Source quality × commitment,  si = the reading's signed Strength,\n *   commitment = 1.0 for an experiment-linked reading, 0.85 for a found one.\n *\n * W0 is per-rung: each rung has its own prior weight controlling how many\n * distinct sources it takes to approach that rung's anchor (cap). Desk\n * research has a low W0 (2 — one authoritative source nearly saturates);\n * talk rungs have a higher W0 (6.5 — needs ~10 readings to approach the\n * cap); do-rungs (Survey/Prototype/Signed/Paying) have high W0s (~120-410\n * — needs ~20 readings to reach 75% of cap). When readings span multiple\n * rungs, each rung with evidence contributes its W0 to the denominator\n * once (one prior per evidence stream).\n *\n * Only concluded Validated/Invalidated readings enter. Readings sharing a\n * Source against one belief dedupe to the strongest (largest |si|, most\n * recent on ties). Market-rung readings never dedupe (each closed commitment\n * is its own unit). No corroboration bump.\n */\nimport type { MagnitudeBand, Result, Rung } from \"../types.js\";\nimport { MARKET_RUNG_VALUES } from \"../types.js\";\nimport { round2 } from \"./round.js\";\nimport { sourceQuality } from \"./source-quality.js\";\nimport { isConcluded, readingStrength } from \"./strength.js\";\n\n/** Market rungs never dedupe (each closed commitment is its own unit). */\nconst MARKET_RUNG_SET = new Set<Rung>(MARKET_RUNG_VALUES);\nfunction isMarketRung(rung: Rung): boolean {\n  return MARKET_RUNG_SET.has(rung);\n}\n\n/**\n * Per-rung prior weight — controls how many distinct sources approach the\n * rung's anchor. Tuned so: Desk 2 readings → ~90% of cap; talk 10 readings →\n * ~90% of cap; do-rungs 20 readings → ~75% of cap. See\n * `docs/evidence-ladder.md` for the derivation.\n */\nexport const W0_BY_RUNG: Record<Rung, number> = {\n  // Talk — 10 readings → ~90% of cap.\n  Talk: 6.5,\n  // Desk research — 2 readings → ~90% of cap (authoritative, rare).\n  \"Desk research\": 2,\n  // All do-rungs — 20 readings → ~75% of cap. Equal ceilings (70) and equal\n  // W0s across consumer (Signed up / Observed usage) and commercial\n  // (Signed intent / Paying users) lenses.\n  \"Signed up\": 327,\n  \"Observed usage\": 327,\n  \"Signed intent\": 327,\n  \"Paying users\": 327,\n};\n\n/**\n * The neutral prior weight for a rung — how much evidence at this rung is\n * needed to overcome the prior. Per-rung (not a flat constant): see\n * {@link W0_BY_RUNG}.\n */\nexport function w0ForRung(rung: Rung): number {\n  return W0_BY_RUNG[rung] ?? 100;\n}\n\n/**\n * The legacy flat W0 — retained for backwards compatibility only. New code\n * should use {@link w0ForRung}. Equal to the old default of 100.\n * @deprecated Use {@link w0ForRung} for per-rung priors.\n */\nexport const W0 = 100;\n\n/**\n * Commitment factor for a *found* reading — one with no originating experiment.\n * A pre-registered (experiment-linked) reading weighs at full commitment (1.0);\n * a found reading is discounted to this. It is a SMALL tiebreaker: it scales the\n * weight only, never the Strength, so it can never reorder readings across rungs\n * (\"Rung dominates\").\n */\nexport const COMMITMENT_FOUND = 0.85;\n\nexport interface ConfidenceReadingInput {\n  id: string;\n  /** The independence-dedupe key. Null falls back to the reading's own id. */\n  source: string | null;\n  rung: Rung;\n  result: Result;\n  representativeness: number;\n  credibility: number;\n  /** ISO date; used only as the dedupe tie-break (most recent wins). */\n  date?: string | null;\n  magnitudeBand?: MagnitudeBand;\n  /**\n   * The originating experiment, or null/undefined for a *found* reading. Drives\n   * the commitment factor in the weight (found → {@link COMMITMENT_FOUND}).\n   */\n  experimentId?: string | null;\n}\n\n/** The commitment weighting for a reading: full for committed, discounted for found. */\nexport function commitmentFactor(experimentId: string | null | undefined): number {\n  return experimentId ? 1.0 : COMMITMENT_FOUND;\n}\n\nexport interface Scored {\n  input: ConfidenceReadingInput;\n  strength: number;\n  sq: number;\n  /** The reading's weight in the average: |strength| × Source quality × commitment. */\n  weight: number;\n}\n\n/**\n * Score every concluded reading and resolve the Source dedupe — the shared\n * front half of the Confidence average. `confidence()` reduces the winners to\n * a number; `confidenceAttribution()` reuses the same winners so the movers it\n * reports always decompose the very number the drawer shows. Market rungs never\n * dedupe (each closed commitment is its own unit).\n */\nexport function scoreAndDedupe(readings: ConfidenceReadingInput[]): Scored[] {\n  const scored: Scored[] = readings\n    .filter((r) => isConcluded(r.result))\n    .map((r) => {\n      const strength = readingStrength(r);\n      const sq = sourceQuality(r.representativeness, r.credibility);\n      const weight = Math.abs(strength) * sq * commitmentFactor(r.experimentId);\n      return { input: r, strength, sq, weight };\n    })\n    .filter((x) => x.strength !== 0);\n\n  const best = new Map<string, Scored>();\n  for (const x of scored) {\n    if (isMarketRung(x.input.rung)) {\n      best.set(x.input.id, x);\n      continue;\n    }\n    const key = x.input.source || x.input.id;\n    const cur = best.get(key);\n    const better =\n      !cur ||\n      Math.abs(x.strength) > Math.abs(cur.strength) ||\n      (Math.abs(x.strength) === Math.abs(cur.strength) &&\n        (x.input.date || \"\") > (cur.input.date || \"\"));\n    if (better) best.set(key, x);\n  }\n  return [...best.values()];\n}\n\nexport function confidence(readings: ConfidenceReadingInput[]): number {\n  const winners = scoreAndDedupe(readings);\n  // Per-rung prior: sum W0 once for each rung that has ≥1 concluded reading.\n  // This preserves each rung's accumulation behaviour independently — desk\n  // stays fast (low W0), talk stays slow (high W0) — and mixed-rung evidence\n  // gets each rung's prior added once (one prior per evidence stream).\n  const rungsPresent = new Set(winners.map((x) => x.input.rung));\n  let den = 0;\n  for (const rung of rungsPresent) den += w0ForRung(rung);\n  let num = 0;\n  for (const x of winners) {\n    num += x.weight * x.strength;\n    den += x.weight;\n  }\n  return den > 0 ? round2(num / den) : 0;\n}\n","/**\n * Confidence attribution — the \"what's moving the number\" half of the\n * understanding layer (OPS-1276). Decomposes an assumption's Confidence into\n * the experiments (and direct readings) contributing to it, ranked by how hard\n * each pushes the number up or down.\n *\n * A winner's contribution is its signed share of the average:\n *   cᵢ = (weightᵢ · strengthᵢ) / den,\n *   den = Σ_rung W0[rung] + Σ weight   (one prior per rung with evidence)\n * so Σ contributions = Σ(wᵢ·sᵢ)/den = Confidence (the W0·0 prior term is 0).\n * The reveal therefore literally adds up to the hero number. Contributions are\n * grouped by the reading's experiment (experiment-less readings — bare/found —\n * fall into a \"direct\" bucket), then ranked by |contribution|. A reading's\n * origin is an experiment or nothing; the retired Goal container is gone\n * (OPS-1305).\n */\nimport { w0ForRung, scoreAndDedupe, type ConfidenceReadingInput } from \"./confidence.js\";\nimport { round2 } from \"./round.js\";\n\n/**\n * The reading shape the attribution reveal consumes. `experimentId` (the\n * grouping key, and the commitment-factor driver) lives on\n * {@link ConfidenceReadingInput}; this alias marks the attribution call sites.\n */\nexport type AttributionReadingInput = ConfidenceReadingInput;\n\n/** What a mover is anchored to — an experiment, or nothing (direct). */\nexport type MoverKind = \"experiment\" | \"direct\";\n\nexport interface Mover {\n  /** Stable grouping key: the experiment id, or \"direct\". */\n  key: string;\n  kind: MoverKind;\n  /** The experiment id when `kind === \"experiment\"`, else null. */\n  experimentId: string | null;\n  /** Signed push on Confidence; the whole set sums to `confidence`. */\n  contribution: number;\n  /** |contribution| — the rank key and the \"how hard\" magnitude. */\n  magnitude: number;\n  /** How many (deduped) readings back this mover. */\n  readingCount: number;\n  /** The winning readings' ids, for drill-through. */\n  readingIds: string[];\n}\n\nexport interface Attribution {\n  /** The same Confidence the derived box shows (from the same winners). */\n  confidence: number;\n  /** Movers ranked by |contribution|, strongest first. */\n  movers: Mover[];\n}\n\nfunction bucketOf(r: AttributionReadingInput): {\n  key: string;\n  kind: MoverKind;\n  experimentId: string | null;\n} {\n  if (r.experimentId) {\n    return {\n      key: r.experimentId,\n      kind: \"experiment\",\n      experimentId: r.experimentId,\n    };\n  }\n  return { key: \"direct\", kind: \"direct\", experimentId: null };\n}\n\nexport function confidenceAttribution(\n  readings: AttributionReadingInput[],\n): Attribution {\n  const winners = scoreAndDedupe(readings);\n  // Per-rung prior: sum W0 once for each rung with ≥1 concluded reading,\n  // matching the `confidence()` formula.\n  const rungsPresent = new Set(winners.map((x) => x.input.rung));\n  let den = 0;\n  for (const rung of rungsPresent) den += w0ForRung(rung);\n  for (const x of winners) den += x.weight;\n\n  const byKey = new Map<string, Mover>();\n  let num = 0;\n  for (const x of winners) {\n    num += x.weight * x.strength;\n    const b = bucketOf(x.input as AttributionReadingInput);\n    const contribution = (x.weight * x.strength) / den;\n    const cur = byKey.get(b.key);\n    if (cur) {\n      cur.contribution += contribution;\n      cur.readingCount += 1;\n      cur.readingIds.push(x.input.id);\n    } else {\n      byKey.set(b.key, {\n        key: b.key,\n        kind: b.kind,\n        experimentId: b.experimentId,\n        contribution,\n        magnitude: 0, // finalised below\n        readingCount: 1,\n        readingIds: [x.input.id],\n      });\n    }\n  }\n\n  const movers = [...byKey.values()].map((m) => ({\n    ...m,\n    contribution: round2(m.contribution),\n    magnitude: round2(Math.abs(m.contribution)),\n  }));\n  movers.sort((a, b) => b.magnitude - a.magnitude);\n\n  return {\n    confidence: den > 0 ? round2(num / den) : 0,\n    movers,\n  };\n}\n","/**\n * Progress-to-conclusion — how close a running experiment is to concluding\n * (OPS-1276). An experiment concludes when every pre-registered bar line has\n * been given a Bar verdict; progress is the count of settled bars against the\n * total. Bar verdict is a report, never a Confidence input (nosql-schema.md),\n * so reading it here is exactly its intended use.\n */\nexport interface BarLineInput {\n  /** null/\"\" until the bar is judged at closure. */\n  barVerdict?: string | null;\n}\n\nexport interface Progress {\n  /** Pre-registered bar lines on the experiment. */\n  total: number;\n  /** Bars that have a verdict. */\n  settled: number;\n  /** Bars still awaiting a verdict. */\n  toGo: number;\n  /** True once every bar is settled (and there is at least one). */\n  concluded: boolean;\n}\n\nexport function experimentProgress(bars: BarLineInput[]): Progress {\n  const total = bars.length;\n  const settled = bars.filter(\n    (b) => typeof b.barVerdict === \"string\" && b.barVerdict.trim() !== \"\",\n  ).length;\n  return {\n    total,\n    settled,\n    toGo: total - settled,\n    concluded: total > 0 && settled === total,\n  };\n}\n","/**\n * Experiment confidence — a derived [0, 100] gauge for an evidence plan (0.14).\n *\n * Formula (`experimentConfidence`):\n *   clamp(50 + 50 × C × S + 5 × A, 0, 100)\n *\n * Where:\n *   B          = number of bar lines\n *   coveredLines = bar lines with ≥1 concluded reading (Validated/Invalidated)\n *   C          = |coveredLines| / max(B, 1)        — coverage factor ∈ [0, 1]\n *   For each concluded reading linked to the experiment (deduped by Source,\n *   same rule as `confidence.ts`):\n *     fᵢ = (strengthᵢ × sqᵢ) / MAX_STRENGTH         (signed)\n *     strengthᵢ = readingStrength({ rung, result, magnitudeBand })\n *     sqᵢ       = sourceQuality(representativeness, credibility)\n *   F = Σ fᵢ                                    (signed, after dedupe)\n *   S = F / (1 + |F|)                            — soft squash, ℝ → (−1, +1)\n *   A = Σ alignedⱼ / B                           — verdict alignment, per bar\n *     alignedⱼ = +1 if barVerdict agrees with the reading sign on bar j,\n *                −1 if it contradicts,\n *                 0 if Inconclusive or no readings on bar j\n *\n * Neutral = 50 (no evidence yet). Validated readings fill up, Invalidated\n * pull down. Coverage-gated (no readings → C=0 → 50). The 5×A term is a small\n * verdict-alignment nudge so a plan whose bars are settled the way the evidence\n * already points inches further in that direction.\n */\nimport type { MagnitudeBand, Result, Rung } from \"../types.js\";\nimport { round2 } from \"./round.js\";\nimport { sourceQuality } from \"./source-quality.js\";\nimport { isConcluded, readingStrength, sign } from \"./strength.js\";\n\n/** The reference maximum strength — the anchor of the highest rung band. */\nexport const MAX_STRENGTH = 99;\n\nexport interface ExperimentConfidenceBarInput {\n  assumptionId: string;\n  /** Set at closure; null/absent until then. */\n  barVerdict?: Result | null;\n}\n\nexport interface ExperimentConfidenceReadingInput {\n  id: string;\n  /** The independence-dedupe key. Null falls back to the reading's own id. */\n  source: string | null;\n  rung: Rung;\n  result: Result;\n  magnitudeBand?: MagnitudeBand;\n  representativeness: number;\n  credibility: number;\n  /** The assumption (bar line) this reading scores. */\n  assumptionId: string;\n}\n\nfunction clamp(n: number, lo: number, hi: number): number {\n  return Math.max(lo, Math.min(hi, n));\n}\n\n/**\n * Source dedupe — same rule as `confidence.ts`: group by Source (fall back to\n * the reading's own id), keep the entry with the largest |strength|. Market\n * rungs never dedupe (each closed commitment is its own unit). Mirrored here so\n * experiment confidence stays pure and self-contained.\n */\nfunction dedupeBySource(\n  readings: ExperimentConfidenceReadingInput[],\n): ExperimentConfidenceReadingInput[] {\n  const MARKET = new Set<Rung>([\"Signed intent\", \"Paying users\"]);\n  const best = new Map<string, ExperimentConfidenceReadingInput>();\n  for (const r of readings) {\n    if (MARKET.has(r.rung)) {\n      best.set(r.id, r);\n      continue;\n    }\n    const key = r.source || r.id;\n    const cur = best.get(key);\n    const s = Math.abs(readingStrength(r));\n    const better =\n      !cur ||\n      s > Math.abs(readingStrength(cur)) ||\n      (s === Math.abs(readingStrength(cur)) && (r.id > cur.id));\n    if (better) best.set(key, r);\n  }\n  return [...best.values()];\n}\n\n/**\n * Compute the experiment-confidence gauge. `bars` is the experiment's bar\n * lines; `readings` is the concluded readings linked to the experiment (the\n * caller filters to the experiment's `barLineAssumptionIds`).\n */\nexport function experimentConfidence(\n  bars: ExperimentConfidenceBarInput[],\n  readings: ExperimentConfidenceReadingInput[],\n): number {\n  const B = bars.length;\n\n  // Only concluded readings enter; dedupe by Source.\n  const concluded = dedupeBySource(\n    readings.filter((r) => isConcluded(r.result)),\n  );\n\n  // Coverage: bar lines with ≥1 concluded reading.\n  const barsWithReadings = new Set(\n    concluded.map((r) => r.assumptionId),\n  );\n  const covered = bars.filter((b) => barsWithReadings.has(b.assumptionId)).length;\n  const C = B > 0 ? covered / B : 0;\n\n  // F = Σ fᵢ (signed).\n  let F = 0;\n  for (const r of concluded) {\n    const strength = readingStrength(r);\n    const sq = sourceQuality(r.representativeness, r.credibility);\n    F += (strength * sq) / MAX_STRENGTH;\n  }\n  const S = F / (1 + Math.abs(F));\n\n  // Verdict alignment: per bar, +1 if barVerdict agrees with the net reading\n  // sign on that bar, −1 if it contradicts, 0 if Inconclusive or no readings.\n  const signByBar = new Map<string, number>();\n  for (const r of concluded) {\n    const s = sign(r.result);\n    signByBar.set(r.assumptionId, (signByBar.get(r.assumptionId) ?? 0) + s);\n  }\n  let A = 0;\n  for (const bar of bars) {\n    const net = signByBar.get(bar.assumptionId);\n    if (net === undefined || net === 0) continue; // no readings or net-zero\n    const v = bar.barVerdict;\n    if (v !== \"Validated\" && v !== \"Invalidated\") continue; // Inconclusive / unset\n    const barSign = v === \"Validated\" ? 1 : -1;\n    A += net * barSign > 0 ? 1 : -1;\n  }\n  if (B > 0) A /= B;\n\n  const raw = 50 + 50 * C * S + 5 * A;\n  return round2(clamp(raw, 0, 100));\n}","/**\n * Confidence over time — the story of how the number got where it is\n * (OPS-1276). At each date a concluded reading was dated, we recompute\n * Confidence over every concluded reading up to and including that date, using\n * the very same `confidence()` the derived box uses (so the last point equals\n * the hero number). Undated concluded readings have no place on the timeline\n * but still bear on the belief, so they are treated as always-present — folded\n * into every point — which keeps the final point equal to today's Confidence.\n */\nimport { confidence, type ConfidenceReadingInput } from \"./confidence.js\";\nimport { isConcluded } from \"./strength.js\";\n\nexport interface TrajectoryPoint {\n  /** ISO date at which Confidence took this value. */\n  date: string;\n  confidence: number;\n}\n\nexport function confidenceTrajectory(\n  readings: ConfidenceReadingInput[],\n): TrajectoryPoint[] {\n  const concluded = readings.filter((r) => isConcluded(r.result));\n  const undated = concluded.filter((r) => !r.date);\n  const dated = concluded.filter((r) => r.date);\n  if (dated.length === 0) return [];\n\n  const dates = [...new Set(dated.map((r) => r.date as string))].sort();\n  return dates.map((date) => ({\n    date,\n    // Everything dated on/before this point, plus the always-present undated.\n    confidence: confidence([\n      ...undated,\n      ...dated.filter((r) => (r.date as string) <= date),\n    ]),\n  }));\n}\n","/**\n * Derived Impact — propagates dependents' pull into a belief's seed.\n *\n * Formula (`ontology.yaml` → `derivations.derived_impact`):\n *   seed + (100 − seed) × S / (S + 100),  where\n *   S = Σ Derived Impact of assumptions whose `Depends on` names this row\n *       + 100 per standing (Provisional/Active) decision naming it via\n *         `Based on assumption`.\n *   Goals never contribute. Moot rows pin to 0 and contribute nothing.\n *\n * One reverse-topological pass (dependents first) with memoization and a\n * cycle guard, matching the instance's `migration/remodel.mjs`.\n */\nimport { round2 } from \"./round.js\";\n\nexport interface ImpactAssumptionInput {\n  id: string;\n  /** The hand-scored seed (0–100); null treated as 0. */\n  impact: number | null;\n  moot?: boolean;\n  /** Ids this assumption depends on. */\n  dependsOnIds: string[];\n}\n\n/**\n * @param assumptions the full register (never a filtered slice — a filter\n *   silently drops dependents from the propagation).\n * @param basedOnCounts id → number of standing decisions with a `Based on`\n *   link to that assumption. Each contributes +100 to S.\n */\nexport function derivedImpacts(\n  assumptions: ImpactAssumptionInput[],\n  basedOnCounts: Record<string, number> = {},\n): Map<string, number> {\n  const byId = new Map(assumptions.map((a) => [a.id, a]));\n\n  // dependents(X) = assumptions whose dependsOnIds includes X.\n  const dependents = new Map<string, string[]>();\n  for (const a of assumptions) dependents.set(a.id, []);\n  for (const a of assumptions) {\n    for (const dep of a.dependsOnIds) dependents.get(dep)?.push(a.id);\n  }\n\n  const memo = new Map<string, number>();\n  const compute = (id: string, seen: Set<string>): number => {\n    const cached = memo.get(id);\n    if (cached !== undefined) return cached;\n    if (seen.has(id)) return 0; // cycle guard\n    seen.add(id);\n    const a = byId.get(id);\n    if (!a) return 0;\n    if (a.moot) {\n      memo.set(id, 0);\n      return 0;\n    }\n    const seed = a.impact ?? 0;\n    let S = 0;\n    for (const depId of dependents.get(id) ?? []) {\n      const d = byId.get(depId);\n      if (d && !d.moot) S += compute(depId, seen);\n    }\n    S += 100 * (basedOnCounts[id] ?? 0);\n    const value = seed + (100 - seed) * (S / (S + 100));\n    const rounded = round2(value);\n    memo.set(id, rounded);\n    return rounded;\n  };\n\n  const out = new Map<string, number>();\n  for (const a of assumptions) out.set(a.id, compute(a.id, new Set()));\n  return out;\n}\n","/**\n * Risk — the belief's live standing.\n *\n * Formula (`ontology.yaml` → `derivations.risk`):\n *   Derived Impact × (1 − max(0, Confidence) / 100)\n * Ranges 0 to Derived Impact. Negative confidence does not raise Risk above\n * Derived Impact (the max(0, …) clamp).\n */\nimport { round2 } from \"./round.js\";\n\nexport function risk(derivedImpact: number, confidence: number): number {\n  return round2(derivedImpact * (1 - Math.max(0, confidence) / 100));\n}\n","/**\n * Portfolio progress — the one *cross-belief* reading (OPS-1293 / OPS-1300).\n *\n * Every other derived number here is per-record (risk/confidence/impact of one\n * belief). This is the whole-set roll-up behind the pipeline's headline: a\n * **burn-up**, \"% of identified risk bought down\" = Risk Retired ÷ Risk-ever-\n * identified across *all* beliefs, resolved ones included.\n *\n * Like `rankNextMoves`, it is a whole-set ordering computed **fresh on read**,\n * not stored — it stays out of the OPS-1251 on-write recompute (it only reads\n * numbers already kept current). Pure and numeric: the dashboard maps records\n * to these inputs (as `understanding.ts` maps readings), so the rule lives\n * once, here.\n *\n * The model (matches the OPS-1296 prototype's self-consistent maths):\n *   - **ever-identified** for a belief = the risk it represented at Confidence\n *     ≤ 0, i.e. its Derived Impact. A moot row's Derived Impact is pinned to 0,\n *     which would erase it from *both* sides of the fraction, so we floor\n *     ever-identified at the hand-scored seed Impact — mooting a belief must\n *     *retire* its risk, never shrink the denominator (the burn-up's whole\n *     point: resolved risk stays counted).\n *   - **live** risk = the belief's current Risk, or 0 once resolved (a kill or\n *     a moot resolves the uncertainty — that risk is bought down, not carried).\n *   - **retired** = ever-identified − live.\n */\nimport { round2 } from \"./round.js\";\n\nexport interface PortfolioBeliefInput {\n  id: string;\n  /** Derived Impact — the belief's risk at Confidence ≤ 0 (0 when moot). */\n  derivedImpact: number;\n  /** The hand-scored seed Impact; the ever-identified floor when moot zeroes\n   * Derived Impact. Null/absent treated as 0. */\n  seedImpact: number | null;\n  /** The belief's current live Risk (stored `derived.risk`). */\n  risk: number;\n  /** Resolved — Invalidated (killed) or moot. Its live risk reads 0 (fully\n   * retired), whatever the stored Risk number says. */\n  resolved: boolean;\n}\n\n/** One belief's contribution to the burn-up. */\nexport interface BeliefRisk {\n  /** Risk-ever-identified — the denominator's per-belief share. */\n  identified: number;\n  /** Live risk still carried (0 once resolved). */\n  live: number;\n  /** Risk bought down — the numerator's per-belief share. */\n  retired: number;\n}\n\nexport interface PortfolioProgress {\n  /** Σ risk-ever-identified — the burn-up denominator. */\n  identified: number;\n  /** Σ risk bought down — the burn-up numerator. */\n  retired: number;\n  /** Σ risk still live. */\n  live: number;\n  /** Retired ÷ identified as a percentage (0 when nothing is identified). */\n  percent: number;\n  /** Beliefs still in play (not resolved). */\n  liveCount: number;\n  /** Beliefs resolved (killed or moot). */\n  resolvedCount: number;\n}\n\n/** One belief's identified / live / retired risk — the rule in one place. */\nexport function beliefRisk(b: PortfolioBeliefInput): BeliefRisk {\n  const seed = b.seedImpact ?? 0;\n  const identified = Math.max(b.derivedImpact, seed, 0);\n  // Live risk can never exceed what was ever identified — the clamp keeps a\n  // stale/over-large stored Risk from making retired go negative.\n  const live = b.resolved ? 0 : Math.min(identified, Math.max(0, b.risk));\n  return {\n    identified: round2(identified),\n    live: round2(live),\n    retired: round2(identified - live),\n  };\n}\n\n/**\n * Roll every belief up into the portfolio burn-up. Pass the *whole* set\n * (resolved rows included) — a filtered slice understates the denominator and\n * makes fresh or retired risk read as backsliding.\n */\nexport function portfolioProgress(\n  beliefs: PortfolioBeliefInput[],\n): PortfolioProgress {\n  let identified = 0;\n  let live = 0;\n  let liveCount = 0;\n  let resolvedCount = 0;\n  for (const b of beliefs) {\n    const r = beliefRisk(b);\n    identified += r.identified;\n    live += r.live;\n    if (b.resolved) resolvedCount += 1;\n    else liveCount += 1;\n  }\n  const retired = identified - live;\n  return {\n    identified: round2(identified),\n    retired: round2(retired),\n    live: round2(live),\n    percent: identified > 0 ? round2((retired / identified) * 100) : 0,\n    liveCount,\n    resolvedCount,\n  };\n}\n","/**\n * Next-move ranking — the front door's single source of truth for \"what should\n * I do next\" (build OPS-1304; placement OPS-1292; action vocabulary OPS-1291).\n *\n * Ranks *beliefs* — Model A: point at one belief, not a heterogeneous triage\n * queue (OPS-1291) — by the method's Feasibility × Risk rule (`docs/method.md`,\n * `ontology.yaml` → `derived_views.next_move`), and names the single act each\n * belief's stage demands. A belief at Confidence ≤ −50 jumps into a distinct\n * kill/re-test lane that sorts above the Feasibility × Risk order regardless of\n * rank — the one place act-urgency beats belief-risk (`derived_views.kill_lane`).\n *\n * Computed fresh on read: a whole-set ordering, so it stays OUT of the OPS-1251\n * on-write recompute — it reads the derived numbers (Risk, Confidence) those\n * writes already keep current. Pure: no I/O, no caching, no weights framework —\n * the enum→multiplier map below IS the formula (OPS-1292: \"no weights /\n * strategies / caching / framework\").\n */\nimport type { Feasibility } from \"../types.js\";\nimport { round2 } from \"./round.js\";\n\n/** The kill/re-test threshold — Confidence at or below this is the kill lane. */\nexport const KILL_LANE_THRESHOLD = -50;\n\n/**\n * The acts the front door can name, one per belief-stage. The front door\n * *names* all of them; only a subset are human step-in forms — the rest are\n * agent-run / off-dashboard (OPS-1294). Which is which is a presentation\n * concern the dashboard owns, not this ranking.\n */\nexport type MoveKind =\n  | \"score-impact\" // Framed — the belief isn't weighted yet (Impact unscored)\n  | \"design-experiment\" // Planned — no test plans this belief yet\n  | \"record-reading\" // Tested — a test is running, evidence still landing\n  | \"decide\" // Known — evidence has landed and no decision rests on it\n  | \"retest\"; // kill lane — Confidence ≤ −50, jumps the ordering\n\n/**\n * One belief's next move. `move`/`score`/`reason` are the OPS-1292 output\n * contract; the rest is context the front door renders (the risk chip, the kill\n * banner, the step-in adaptation) — every field read from the inputs, nothing\n * new computed here.\n */\nexport interface NextMove {\n  /** The act this belief's stage demands. */\n  move: MoveKind;\n  assumptionId: string;\n  /** The belief statement — the hero headline. */\n  title: string;\n  /** Feasibility × Risk. Kill-lane rows carry their Risk and sort first. */\n  score: number;\n  /** Plain-language \"why this\" — explains from the inputs, no jargon. */\n  reason: string;\n  /** The belief's live derived Risk (0–100). */\n  risk: number;\n  /** The belief's live derived Confidence (signed −100…100). */\n  confidence: number;\n  /** The feasibility that fed the score; null when no test plans it yet. */\n  feasibility: Feasibility | null;\n  /** Confidence ≤ −50 — the override lane. */\n  killLane: boolean;\n}\n\n/** A belief and its live derived numbers (the ranking's primary input). */\nexport interface NextMoveAssumptionInput {\n  id: string;\n  title: string;\n  /** AssumptionStatus; `Invalidated` rows are already killed and drop out. */\n  status: string;\n  /** The hand-scored seed (0–100); null means unscored → \"score impact\". */\n  impact: number | null;\n  /** Mooted beliefs (Impact pinned to 0 by a decision) drop out of ranking. */\n  moot: boolean;\n  /** Derived Risk (already recomputed on write — read, never recomputed). */\n  risk: number;\n  /** Derived Confidence (already recomputed on write). */\n  confidence: number;\n  /** How many concluded (Validated/Invalidated) readings back this belief. */\n  concludedReadings: number;\n}\n\n/** An experiment, reduced to what stage + feasibility resolution needs. */\nexport interface NextMoveExperimentInput {\n  /** ExperimentStatus — \"Running\" | \"Closed\". */\n  status: string;\n  feasibility: Feasibility | null;\n  /** The assumption ids this experiment's bar lines name. */\n  assumptionIds: string[];\n}\n\n/** A decision, reduced to which beliefs it rests on or resolves. */\nexport interface NextMoveDecisionInput {\n  /** DecisionStatus; only standing (Active/Provisional) decisions count. */\n  status: string;\n  /** The assumption ids this decision rests on (`based on`) or resolves. */\n  assumptionIds: string[];\n}\n\nexport interface NextMoveInput {\n  assumptions: NextMoveAssumptionInput[];\n  experiments: NextMoveExperimentInput[];\n  decisions: NextMoveDecisionInput[];\n}\n\n/**\n * Feasibility → the score multiplier. Cheaper (more feasible) tests rank\n * higher, so the cheapest honest test of the riskiest belief is on top\n * (`method.md`). A belief with no planned test yet has unknown feasibility →\n * the neutral middle, so Risk decides its place honestly.\n */\nconst FEASIBILITY_WEIGHT: Record<Feasibility, number> = {\n  High: 1,\n  Medium: 0.6,\n  Low: 0.3,\n};\nconst NEUTRAL_FEASIBILITY_WEIGHT = FEASIBILITY_WEIGHT.Medium;\n\nfunction isStanding(decisionStatus: string): boolean {\n  return decisionStatus === \"Active\" || decisionStatus === \"Provisional\";\n}\n\n/** Pick the cheapest (highest-weight) feasibility among a belief's tests. */\nfunction bestFeasibility(\n  feasibilities: (Feasibility | null)[],\n): Feasibility | null {\n  let best: Feasibility | null = null;\n  let bestWeight = -1;\n  for (const f of feasibilities) {\n    if (!f) continue;\n    const w = FEASIBILITY_WEIGHT[f];\n    if (w > bestWeight) {\n      bestWeight = w;\n      best = f;\n    }\n  }\n  return best;\n}\n\n/**\n * The act a belief's stage demands (before the kill-lane override).\n *\n * Deliberately NOT the `stage.ts` structural classifier: that answers \"how far\n * along the Framed→Planned→Tested→Known artifacts are\" (framing completeness,\n * bar-line settlement); this answers \"what should the founder do next\" from the\n * evidence state (is it weighted, has evidence concluded, does a test run, does\n * a decision rest on it). Same belief can be structurally `tested` yet owe a\n * `decide` here — the journey rail (stage) and next-move card (act) are two\n * readings of one belief, so they share the test-plan *meter* (`beliefTestMeters`)\n * but not the classifier.\n */\nfunction stageMove(\n  a: NextMoveAssumptionInput,\n  hasRunningTest: boolean,\n  hasAnyTest: boolean,\n  hasStandingDecision: boolean,\n): MoveKind | null {\n  if (a.impact === null) return \"score-impact\"; // Framed → weight it\n  if (a.concludedReadings === 0) {\n    // No evidence yet: if a test is running, wait for readings; else plan one.\n    return hasRunningTest ? \"record-reading\" : \"design-experiment\";\n  }\n  // Evidence has landed. If nothing rests on it yet, it's time to decide;\n  // once a standing decision does, the belief is resolved and drops out.\n  if (!hasStandingDecision) return \"decide\";\n  return null;\n}\n\n/** Plain-language \"why this\" — explains the move from the inputs. */\nfunction reasonFor(move: MoveKind, a: NextMoveAssumptionInput): string {\n  switch (move) {\n    case \"retest\":\n      return `Confidence has fallen to ${Math.round(a.confidence)} — the evidence is turning against this belief. Kill it or test it again.`;\n    case \"score-impact\":\n      return \"This belief isn't weighted yet — score its impact so its risk can rank against the rest.\";\n    case \"design-experiment\":\n      return `Your riskiest untested belief. Design the cheapest honest test that could move it.`;\n    case \"record-reading\":\n      return \"A test is running against this belief — evidence is still landing.\";\n    case \"decide\":\n      return \"The evidence is in and nothing rests on it yet — time to make the call.\";\n  }\n}\n\n/**\n * Rank every unresolved belief into its next move (Model A). Returns a plain\n * sorted list, most-pressing first: the kill lane on top (by Risk), then the\n * rest by Feasibility × Risk, tie-broken by the most-negative Confidence\n * (`derived_views.test_next_surface`), then by id for a stable order. The front\n * door takes the head as the hero and the tail as \"On deck\" / manual override.\n */\nexport function rankNextMoves(input: NextMoveInput): NextMove[] {\n  const { assumptions, experiments, decisions } = input;\n\n  // Which experiments (and their feasibilities/statuses) name each belief.\n  const testsByAssumption = new Map<\n    string,\n    { running: boolean; any: boolean; feasibilities: (Feasibility | null)[] }\n  >();\n  for (const exp of experiments) {\n    const running = exp.status === \"Running\";\n    for (const id of exp.assumptionIds) {\n      const entry = testsByAssumption.get(id) ?? {\n        running: false,\n        any: false,\n        feasibilities: [],\n      };\n      entry.any = true;\n      entry.running = entry.running || running;\n      entry.feasibilities.push(exp.feasibility);\n      testsByAssumption.set(id, entry);\n    }\n  }\n\n  // Which beliefs a standing decision rests on or resolves.\n  const decidedAssumptions = new Set<string>();\n  for (const d of decisions) {\n    if (!isStanding(d.status)) continue;\n    for (const id of d.assumptionIds) decidedAssumptions.add(id);\n  }\n\n  const moves: NextMove[] = [];\n  for (const a of assumptions) {\n    if (a.moot || a.status === \"Invalidated\") continue;\n\n    const killLane = a.confidence <= KILL_LANE_THRESHOLD;\n    const tests = testsByAssumption.get(a.id);\n    const feasibility = bestFeasibility(tests?.feasibilities ?? []);\n\n    const move: MoveKind | null = killLane\n      ? \"retest\"\n      : stageMove(\n          a,\n          tests?.running ?? false,\n          tests?.any ?? false,\n          decidedAssumptions.has(a.id),\n        );\n    if (move === null) continue; // resolved — no move\n\n    const weight = feasibility\n      ? FEASIBILITY_WEIGHT[feasibility]\n      : NEUTRAL_FEASIBILITY_WEIGHT;\n    // Kill-lane rows carry their raw Risk so they order among themselves by\n    // Risk; the killLane flag (not the score) floats them above everyone else.\n    const score = round2(killLane ? a.risk : weight * a.risk);\n\n    moves.push({\n      move,\n      assumptionId: a.id,\n      title: a.title,\n      score,\n      reason: reasonFor(move, a),\n      risk: a.risk,\n      confidence: a.confidence,\n      feasibility,\n      killLane,\n    });\n  }\n\n  moves.sort((x, y) => {\n    if (x.killLane !== y.killLane) return x.killLane ? -1 : 1;\n    if (y.score !== x.score) return y.score - x.score;\n    if (x.confidence !== y.confidence) return x.confidence - y.confidence;\n    return x.assumptionId < y.assumptionId ? -1 : 1;\n  });\n  return moves;\n}\n","/**\n * Per-belief stage — where one belief sits on the loop's four-stage spine\n * (Framed → Planned → Tested → Known) and its four meters (OPS-1329).\n *\n * This is the *single-belief* analogue of the pipeline's cross-belief roll-up:\n * the pipeline row-builder used to derive framing / test-plan / test-progress\n * inline, and the front-door move ladder (OPS-1304) re-walked the same stages a\n * second way. The shared classification lives here now, so the pipeline board,\n * the front door, and the per-belief journey rail all read one rule rather than\n * three that can drift.\n *\n * Pure and computed fresh on read (like `portfolio.ts` / `next-move.ts`): it\n * only reads numbers already kept current, so it stays out of the OPS-1251\n * on-write recompute. The record → meter mapping (bar lines, presence fields)\n * lives in the dashboard, as elsewhere; this module takes the reduced inputs.\n */\nimport { KILL_LANE_THRESHOLD } from \"./next-move.js\";\n\n/** The four loop stages a belief travels, in order (OPS-1293). */\nexport type StageKey = \"framed\" | \"planned\" | \"tested\" | \"known\";\n\n/** Sign of a belief's Confidence — the Known meter's direction. */\nexport type ConfSign = \"pos\" | \"neg\" | \"zero\";\n\n/** One belief's test state, aggregated across every experiment aimed at it. */\nexport interface TestMeter {\n  /** A bar line (or the convenience projection) names this belief. */\n  planned: boolean;\n  /** Pre-registered bars that have a verdict. */\n  settled: number;\n  /** Pre-registered bars in total. */\n  total: number;\n}\n\n/** A test's bar lines, reduced to what the meter needs (register-agnostic). */\nexport interface StageExperimentInput {\n  /** Each bar line naming a belief, and whether it has settled (has a verdict). */\n  bars: { assumptionId: string; settled: boolean }[];\n  /** Beliefs this test plans via the convenience projection (bars may be unexpanded). */\n  plannedAssumptionIds: string[];\n}\n\n/** The reduced inputs one belief's stage is derived from. */\nexport interface BeliefStageInput {\n  /** Framing completeness, 0–100 (`assumptionCompleteness`). */\n  framed: number;\n  /** Live derived Confidence (signed −100…100). */\n  confidence: number;\n  /** This belief's aggregated test state. */\n  test: TestMeter;\n}\n\n/** One belief's position on the spine plus its four meters. */\nexport interface BeliefStage {\n  /** Where the belief sits: framed → planned → tested → known. */\n  stage: StageKey;\n  /** Meter 1 — framing completeness, 0–100. */\n  framed: number;\n  /** Meter 2 — a test has been designed against this belief. */\n  planned: boolean;\n  /** Meter 3 — pre-registered bars settled / total. */\n  tested: { settled: number; total: number };\n  /** Meter 4 — signed Known: the belief's Confidence. */\n  confidence: number;\n  /** Sign bucket for the Known gauge direction. */\n  confSign: ConfSign;\n  /** Confidence ≤ −50 — the kill/re-test overlay (the same lane as the front door). */\n  killZone: boolean;\n}\n\n/** An empty test state — a belief no experiment has named yet. */\nexport function emptyTestMeter(): TestMeter {\n  return { planned: false, settled: 0, total: 0 };\n}\n\n/**\n * For every belief, the state of the tests aimed at it — whether one is designed\n * and how many of its pre-registered bars have settled, aggregated across all\n * experiments. Factored out of the pipeline row-builder so the board and a\n * single belief's rail agree by construction.\n */\nexport function beliefTestMeters(\n  experiments: StageExperimentInput[],\n): Map<string, TestMeter> {\n  const byAssumption = new Map<string, TestMeter>();\n  const ensure = (id: string): TestMeter => {\n    let s = byAssumption.get(id);\n    if (!s) {\n      s = emptyTestMeter();\n      byAssumption.set(id, s);\n    }\n    return s;\n  };\n  for (const exp of experiments) {\n    for (const b of exp.bars) {\n      if (!b.assumptionId) continue;\n      const s = ensure(b.assumptionId);\n      s.planned = true;\n      s.total += 1;\n      if (b.settled) s.settled += 1;\n    }\n    // A designed test may name a belief via the convenience projection even when\n    // its bar lines aren't expanded — still counts as Planned.\n    for (const id of exp.plannedAssumptionIds) ensure(id).planned = true;\n  }\n  return byAssumption;\n}\n\n/**\n * Classify a belief on the spine from its meters. The kill-zone overlay is\n * *not* a stage — a belief whose evidence has turned is still structurally\n * wherever its framing/tests put it (a re-test moves it backward via the Known\n * meter, OPS-1300), so this stays pure status.\n */\nexport function classifyStage(framed: number, test: TestMeter): StageKey {\n  if (framed < 100) return \"framed\";\n  if (!test.planned) return \"planned\";\n  if (test.total === 0 || test.settled < test.total) return \"tested\";\n  return \"known\";\n}\n\n/** One belief's stage + four meters — the rail's data. */\nexport function deriveBeliefStage(input: BeliefStageInput): BeliefStage {\n  const { framed, confidence, test } = input;\n  return {\n    stage: classifyStage(framed, test),\n    framed,\n    planned: test.planned,\n    tested: { settled: test.settled, total: test.total },\n    confidence,\n    confSign: confidence > 0 ? \"pos\" : confidence < 0 ? \"neg\" : \"zero\",\n    killZone: confidence <= KILL_LANE_THRESHOLD,\n  };\n}\n","/**\n * The per-belief journey event log (OPS-1329) — the belief's life ordered into\n * dated events: bet → score → experiment → readings → confidence-cross → now.\n * It is the *story* half of the journey drill-in (the *rail* half is `stage.ts`).\n *\n * No new maths: Confidence at each point is read off `confidenceTrajectory`\n * (the very numbers the understanding layer already shows), and the current\n * number off `confidence()`. Nothing is invented — an event whose underlying\n * datum is absent (no impact score, no experiment, no concluded reading, no\n * kill-zone cross) is simply omitted, and no date is ever faked (an event with\n * no real date carries `date: null` and takes its place by structural order).\n *\n * Pure and label-free: the dashboard journey view-model adds the copy. Computed\n * fresh on read, out of the OPS-1251 on-write recompute.\n */\nimport type { Result } from \"../types.js\";\nimport type { AttributionReadingInput } from \"./attribution.js\";\nimport { confidence } from \"./confidence.js\";\nimport { KILL_LANE_THRESHOLD } from \"./next-move.js\";\nimport { isConcluded } from \"./strength.js\";\nimport { confidenceTrajectory } from \"./trajectory.js\";\n\n/** The kinds of event a belief's life produces, in structural order. */\nexport type JourneyEventKind =\n  | \"bet\" // the belief was written\n  | \"score\" // its impact was scored\n  | \"experiment\" // a test was designed against it\n  | \"reading\" // evidence landed\n  | \"confidence-cross\" // Confidence fell into the kill zone\n  | \"now\"; // the belief's state today\n\n/** The structural order the story walks — the tie-break for undated events. */\nconst KIND_ORDER: Record<JourneyEventKind, number> = {\n  bet: 0,\n  score: 1,\n  experiment: 2,\n  reading: 3,\n  \"confidence-cross\": 4,\n  now: 5,\n};\n\n/** One event in a belief's life. Label-free — the view-model adds the copy. */\nexport interface JourneyEvent {\n  kind: JourneyEventKind;\n  /** ISO date, or null when no real date exists (never faked). */\n  date: string | null;\n  /** Confidence known at this event (reading / cross / now); null otherwise. */\n  confidence: number | null;\n  /** The reading's verdict, for `reading` events; null otherwise. */\n  result: Result | null;\n  /** The source record id (reading id, experiment id) when the event has one. */\n  refId: string | null;\n}\n\n/** The belief itself, reduced to what the log needs. */\nexport interface JourneyBeliefInput {\n  /** When the bet was written — the `bet` event's date. */\n  createdAt: string | null;\n  /** Impact has been scored (a non-null seed) — emits the `score` event. */\n  impactScored: boolean;\n}\n\n/** A test aimed at this belief, reduced to what the log needs. */\nexport interface JourneyExperimentInput {\n  id: string;\n  /** When the test was designed; null when unknown (event still emitted, undated). */\n  date: string | null;\n}\n\nexport interface AssembleJourneyInput {\n  belief: JourneyBeliefInput;\n  /** The belief's own readings (already filtered to this assumption). */\n  readings: AttributionReadingInput[];\n  /** The experiments testing this belief. */\n  experiments: JourneyExperimentInput[];\n  /** \"Now\" as an ISO date — passed in so the log stays pure. */\n  now: string;\n}\n\n/**\n * Assemble one belief's chronological event log. Events sort by date, undated\n * events anchored to the bet's date and ordered structurally; `now` is always\n * last.\n */\nexport function assembleJourney(input: AssembleJourneyInput): JourneyEvent[] {\n  const { belief, readings, experiments, now } = input;\n  const events: JourneyEvent[] = [];\n\n  if (belief.createdAt) {\n    events.push(event(\"bet\", belief.createdAt));\n  }\n  if (belief.impactScored) {\n    // No scored-on date is stored, so the score rides structurally after the\n    // bet rather than carrying an invented date.\n    events.push(event(\"score\", null));\n  }\n  for (const e of experiments) {\n    events.push(event(\"experiment\", e.date, { refId: e.id }));\n  }\n\n  const trajectory = confidenceTrajectory(readings);\n  const confByDate = new Map(trajectory.map((p) => [p.date, p.confidence]));\n  for (const r of readings) {\n    const dated = r.date ?? null;\n    // Confidence is known only for a concluded reading that lands on a\n    // trajectory date (undated / inconclusive readings carry no number).\n    const conf =\n      dated && isConcluded(r.result) ? (confByDate.get(dated) ?? null) : null;\n    events.push(\n      event(\"reading\", dated, { confidence: conf, result: r.result, refId: r.id }),\n    );\n  }\n\n  // The first point at which the evidence dragged Confidence into the kill zone.\n  const cross = trajectory.find((p) => p.confidence <= KILL_LANE_THRESHOLD);\n  if (cross) {\n    events.push(event(\"confidence-cross\", cross.date, { confidence: cross.confidence }));\n  }\n\n  // Undated events anchor to the bet so they sit at the start in structural\n  // order; `now` is appended after sorting so it is unconditionally last.\n  const anchor = belief.createdAt ?? \"\";\n  events.sort((a, b) => {\n    const ka = a.date ?? anchor;\n    const kb = b.date ?? anchor;\n    if (ka !== kb) return ka < kb ? -1 : 1;\n    return KIND_ORDER[a.kind] - KIND_ORDER[b.kind];\n  });\n  events.push(event(\"now\", now, { confidence: confidence(readings) }));\n\n  return events;\n}\n\nfunction event(\n  kind: JourneyEventKind,\n  date: string | null,\n  extra: Partial<Pick<JourneyEvent, \"confidence\" | \"result\" | \"refId\">> = {},\n): JourneyEvent {\n  return {\n    kind,\n    date,\n    confidence: extra.confidence ?? null,\n    result: extra.result ?? null,\n    refId: extra.refId ?? null,\n  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package/dist/derivation/index.d.ts

@@ -1,2 +1,2 @@
-export { e as AssembleJourneyInput, f as Attribution, A as AttributionReadingInput, B as BarLineInput, g as BeliefRisk, h as BeliefStage, j as BeliefStageInput, k as COMMITMENT_FOUND, C as COMPLETENESS_SLOTS, b as CompletenessInput, a as CompletenessSlot, l as ConfSign, n as ConfidenceReadingInput, E as ExperimentConfidenceBarInput, o as ExperimentConfidenceReadingInput, I as ImpactAssumptionInput, J as JourneyBeliefInput, p as JourneyEvent, q as JourneyEventKind, t as JourneyExperimentInput, K as KILL_LANE_THRESHOLD, M as MAX_STRENGTH, u as MoveKind, v as Mover, w as MoverKind, N as NextMove, x as NextMoveAssumptionInput, y as NextMoveDecisionInput, z as NextMoveExperimentInput, D as NextMoveInput, P as PortfolioBeliefInput, F as PortfolioProgress, G as Progress, R as RUNG_ANCHOR, S as Scored, H as StageExperimentInput, L as StageKey, O as StrengthInput, T as TestMeter, Q as TrajectoryPoint, W as W0, U as W0_BY_RUNG, V as assembleJourney, d as assumptionComplete, c as assumptionCompleteness, X as beliefRisk, Y as beliefTestMeters, Z as classifyStage, _ as commitmentFactor, $ as completenessSlotPresence, a0 as confidence, a1 as confidenceAttribution, a2 as confidenceTrajectory, a3 as deriveBeliefStage, a4 as derivedImpacts, a5 as emptyTestMeter, a6 as experimentConfidence, a7 as experimentProgress, a8 as isConcluded, m as missingCompletenessSlots, a9 as portfolioProgress, aa as rankNextMoves, r as readingStrength, ab as risk, ac as round2, ad as scoreAndDedupe, ae as sign, s as sourceQuality, af as w0ForRung } from '../index-9yJs8_Ei.js';
-import '../types-DGDJsWNi.js';
+export { e as AssembleJourneyInput, f as Attribution, A as AttributionReadingInput, B as BarLineInput, g as BeliefRisk, h as BeliefStage, j as BeliefStageInput, k as COMMITMENT_FOUND, C as COMPLETENESS_SLOTS, b as CompletenessInput, a as CompletenessSlot, l as ConfSign, n as ConfidenceReadingInput, E as ExperimentConfidenceBarInput, o as ExperimentConfidenceReadingInput, I as ImpactAssumptionInput, J as JourneyBeliefInput, p as JourneyEvent, q as JourneyEventKind, t as JourneyExperimentInput, K as KILL_LANE_THRESHOLD, M as MAX_STRENGTH, u as MoveKind, v as Mover, w as MoverKind, N as NextMove, x as NextMoveAssumptionInput, y as NextMoveDecisionInput, z as NextMoveExperimentInput, D as NextMoveInput, P as PortfolioBeliefInput, F as PortfolioProgress, G as Progress, R as RUNG_ANCHOR, S as Scored, H as StageExperimentInput, L as StageKey, O as StrengthInput, T as TestMeter, Q as TrajectoryPoint, W as W0, U as W0_BY_RUNG, V as assembleJourney, d as assumptionComplete, c as assumptionCompleteness, X as beliefRisk, Y as beliefTestMeters, Z as classifyStage, _ as commitmentFactor, $ as completenessSlotPresence, a0 as confidence, a1 as confidenceAttribution, a2 as confidenceTrajectory, a3 as deriveBeliefStage, a4 as derivedImpacts, a5 as emptyTestMeter, a6 as experimentConfidence, a7 as experimentProgress, a8 as isConcluded, m as missingCompletenessSlots, a9 as portfolioProgress, aa as rankNextMoves, r as readingStrength, ab as risk, ac as round2, ad as scoreAndDedupe, ae as sign, s as sourceQuality, af as w0ForRung } from '../index-DMPfDeEw.js';
+import '../types-B845UmLh.js';

package/dist/derivation/index.js

@@ -33,7 +33,7 @@ import {
   sign,
   sourceQuality,
   w0ForRung
-} from "../chunk-7QK3MHU6.js";
+} from "../chunk-HMAHBGOJ.js";
 import "../chunk-PZ5AY32C.js";
 export {
   COMMITMENT_FOUND,

package/dist/{index-9yJs8_Ei.d.ts → index-DMPfDeEw.d.ts}

@@ -1,4 +1,4 @@
-import { r as Rung, l as MagnitudeBand, q as Result, F as Feasibility } from './types-DGDJsWNi.js';
+import { r as Rung, l as MagnitudeBand, q as Result, F as Feasibility } from './types-B845UmLh.js';
 
 /**
  * Round to 2 decimals, matching the migration's `+(n).toFixed(2)`.

package/dist/index.d.ts

@@ -1,8 +1,8 @@
-import { R as Relation, C as Collection, A as AssumptionRecord, a as ReadingRecord, D as DecisionRecord, b as AssumptionDerived, E as ExperimentRecord, c as ExperimentDerived, d as AnyRecord } from './types-DGDJsWNi.js';
-export { e as AssumptionStatus, B as BarLine, f as BaseRecord, g as BeliefScore, h as DecisionStatus, i as ExperimentStatus, F as Feasibility, G as GlossaryAvoid, j as GlossaryRecord, k as GlossaryStatus, M as MARKET_RUNG_VALUES, l as MagnitudeBand, m as MarketRung, n as REGISTERS, o as RecordRef, p as Register, q as Result, r as Rung, S as SourceQualityPick, T as TESTING_RUNGS, s as TestingRung } from './types-DGDJsWNi.js';
-export { D as DataProvider, N as NotFoundError, S as StaleVersionError, i as isNotFoundError, a as isStaleVersionError } from './provider-DBfUvG4N.js';
-import { A as AttributionReadingInput } from './index-9yJs8_Ei.js';
-export { C as ASSUMPTION_PRESENCE_SLOTS, a as AssumptionPresenceSlot, b as CompletenessInput, c as assumptionCompleteness, d as assumptionPresenceComplete, i as derivation, m as missingPresenceSlots, s as recomputeSourceQuality, r as recomputeStrength } from './index-9yJs8_Ei.js';
+import { R as Relation, C as Collection, A as AssumptionRecord, a as ReadingRecord, D as DecisionRecord, b as AssumptionDerived, E as ExperimentRecord, c as ExperimentDerived, d as AnyRecord } from './types-B845UmLh.js';
+export { e as AssumptionStatus, B as BarLine, f as BaseRecord, g as BeliefScore, h as DecisionStatus, i as ExperimentStatus, F as Feasibility, G as GlossaryAvoid, j as GlossaryRecord, k as GlossaryStatus, M as MARKET_RUNG_VALUES, l as MagnitudeBand, m as MarketRung, n as REGISTERS, o as RecordRef, p as Register, q as Result, r as Rung, S as SourceQualityPick, T as TESTING_RUNGS, s as TestingRung } from './types-B845UmLh.js';
+export { D as DataProvider, N as NotFoundError, S as StaleVersionError, i as isNotFoundError, a as isStaleVersionError } from './provider-biEHIhDh.js';
+import { A as AttributionReadingInput } from './index-DMPfDeEw.js';
+export { C as ASSUMPTION_PRESENCE_SLOTS, a as AssumptionPresenceSlot, b as CompletenessInput, c as assumptionCompleteness, d as assumptionPresenceComplete, i as derivation, m as missingPresenceSlots, s as recomputeSourceQuality, r as recomputeStrength } from './index-DMPfDeEw.js';
 
 /**
  * Relation config — the single table describing, for each linkable relation,

package/dist/index.js

@@ -20,7 +20,7 @@ import {
   readingStrength,
   risk,
   sourceQuality
-} from "./chunk-7QK3MHU6.js";
+} from "./chunk-HMAHBGOJ.js";
 import "./chunk-PZ5AY32C.js";
 
 // src/reading-input.ts

package/dist/{provider-DBfUvG4N.d.ts → provider-biEHIhDh.d.ts}

@@ -1,4 +1,4 @@
-import { C as Collection, d as AnyRecord, R as Relation, o as RecordRef } from './types-DGDJsWNi.js';
+import { C as Collection, d as AnyRecord, R as Relation, o as RecordRef } from './types-B845UmLh.js';
 
 /**
  * The `DataProvider` — the single integration seam between the dashboard/API

package/dist/testing.d.ts

@@ -1,5 +1,5 @@
-import { D as DataProvider } from './provider-DBfUvG4N.js';
-import { C as Collection, d as AnyRecord, R as Relation, o as RecordRef } from './types-DGDJsWNi.js';
+import { D as DataProvider } from './provider-biEHIhDh.js';
+import { C as Collection, d as AnyRecord, R as Relation, o as RecordRef } from './types-B845UmLh.js';
 
 interface InMemoryProviderOptions {
     now?: () => string;

package/dist/{types-DGDJsWNi.d.ts → types-B845UmLh.d.ts}

@@ -106,6 +106,8 @@ interface BeliefScore {
     Result: Result;
     /** The rationale for this belief's Result at the row's rung. */
     "Grading justification": string;
+    /** The verbatim quote or observed fact this belief was graded from. */
+    excerpt?: string;
     /** Derived per belief: row rung anchor × sign(Result) [× row magnitude band]. */
     derived: {
         strength: number;

package/package.json

@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
 {
   "name": "@validation-os/core",
-  "version": "0.15.3",
+  "version": "0.15.5",
   "description": "The DataProvider seam, the shared derivation module (pure functions), and shared registry types for validation-os.",
   "license": "MIT",
   "type": "module",

package/dist/chunk-7QK3MHU6.js.map

@@ -1 +0,0 @@
-{"version":3,"sources":["../src/derivation/index.ts","../src/derivation/round.ts","../src/derivation/rung.ts","../src/derivation/completeness.ts","../src/derivation/strength.ts","../src/derivation/source-quality.ts","../src/types.ts","../src/derivation/confidence.ts","../src/derivation/attribution.ts","../src/derivation/progress.ts","../src/derivation/experiment-confidence.ts","../src/derivation/trajectory.ts","../src/derivation/impact.ts","../src/derivation/risk.ts","../src/derivation/portfolio.ts","../src/derivation/next-move.ts","../src/derivation/stage.ts","../src/derivation/journey.ts"],"sourcesContent":["/**\n * The shared derivation module — pure functions, no I/O.\n *\n * The same module the dashboard, the API (derive-on-write), and Claude Code\n * audits all call, so every writer computes the four derived numbers\n * identically. Ported from the instance's `migration/remodel.mjs` and\n * kept in lock-step with `skills/_shared/ontology.yaml`.\n */\nexport { round2 } from \"./round.js\";\nexport { RUNG_ANCHOR } from \"./rung.js\";\nexport {\n  COMPLETENESS_SLOTS,\n  completenessSlotPresence,\n  missingCompletenessSlots,\n  assumptionCompleteness,\n  assumptionComplete,\n} from \"./completeness.js\";\nexport type { CompletenessSlot, CompletenessInput } from \"./completeness.js\";\nexport { sign, isConcluded, readingStrength } from \"./strength.js\";\nexport type { StrengthInput } from \"./strength.js\";\nexport { sourceQuality } from \"./source-quality.js\";\nexport {\n  confidence,\n  scoreAndDedupe,\n  commitmentFactor,\n  COMMITMENT_FOUND,\n  W0,\n  W0_BY_RUNG,\n  w0ForRung,\n} from \"./confidence.js\";\nexport type { ConfidenceReadingInput, Scored } from \"./confidence.js\";\nexport { confidenceAttribution } from \"./attribution.js\";\nexport type {\n  Attribution,\n  AttributionReadingInput,\n  Mover,\n  MoverKind,\n} from \"./attribution.js\";\nexport { experimentProgress } from \"./progress.js\";\nexport type { BarLineInput, Progress } from \"./progress.js\";\nexport { experimentConfidence, MAX_STRENGTH } from \"./experiment-confidence.js\";\nexport type {\n  ExperimentConfidenceBarInput,\n  ExperimentConfidenceReadingInput,\n} from \"./experiment-confidence.js\";\nexport { confidenceTrajectory } from \"./trajectory.js\";\nexport type { TrajectoryPoint } from \"./trajectory.js\";\nexport { derivedImpacts } from \"./impact.js\";\nexport type { ImpactAssumptionInput } from \"./impact.js\";\nexport { risk } from \"./risk.js\";\nexport { beliefRisk, portfolioProgress } from \"./portfolio.js\";\nexport type {\n  BeliefRisk,\n  PortfolioBeliefInput,\n  PortfolioProgress,\n} from \"./portfolio.js\";\nexport { rankNextMoves, KILL_LANE_THRESHOLD } from \"./next-move.js\";\nexport type {\n  MoveKind,\n  NextMove,\n  NextMoveAssumptionInput,\n  NextMoveExperimentInput,\n  NextMoveDecisionInput,\n  NextMoveInput,\n} from \"./next-move.js\";\nexport {\n  beliefTestMeters,\n  classifyStage,\n  deriveBeliefStage,\n  emptyTestMeter,\n} from \"./stage.js\";\nexport type {\n  BeliefStage,\n  BeliefStageInput,\n  ConfSign,\n  StageExperimentInput,\n  StageKey,\n  TestMeter,\n} from \"./stage.js\";\nexport { assembleJourney } from \"./journey.js\";\nexport type {\n  AssembleJourneyInput,\n  JourneyBeliefInput,\n  JourneyEvent,\n  JourneyEventKind,\n  JourneyExperimentInput,\n} from \"./journey.js\";\n","/**\n * Round to 2 decimals, matching the migration's `+(n).toFixed(2)`.\n * Derived values are stored/displayed rounded; full precision is only used\n * transiently inside a single computation.\n */\nexport function round2(n: number): number {\n  return Number(n.toFixed(2));\n}\n","/**\n * The lens-aware ladder anchors (DEV-5879).\n *\n * Source of truth: `skills/_shared/ontology.yaml` → `vocabularies.rung`. A\n * rung is an evidence TYPE; magnitude band (Low/Typical/High) is the intensity\n * within a type. The band applies to EVERY rung, so every rung looks up its\n * anchor through `RUNG_ANCHOR[rung][band]`.\n *\n *   Talk:           3 / 6 / 10   (Opinion / Pitch-deck / Anecdotal merged)\n *   Desk research:  15 / 15 / 15 (flat — desk research has no meaningful bands,\n *                                  but the field exists for uniformity)\n *   Signed up:      30 / 50 / 70 (consumer lens's first do-rung)\n *   Observed usage: 30 / 50 / 70 (consumer lens; was Prototype usage + Survey\n *                                  at scale, now collapsed)\n *   Signed intent:  30 / 50 / 70 (commercial/investor lens)\n *   Paying users:   30 / 50 / 70 (commercial/investor lens)\n *\n * The lens determines which \"do\" rungs are available; Talk + Desk work for\n * any lens. The rung-to-lens mapping is a grading guideline, not a schema\n * constraint — any Rung can appear on any assumption.\n */\nimport type { MagnitudeBand, Rung } from \"../types.js\";\n\nexport const RUNG_ANCHOR: Record<Rung, Record<MagnitudeBand, number>> = {\n  Talk: { Low: 3, Typical: 6, High: 10 },\n  \"Desk research\": { Low: 15, Typical: 15, High: 15 },\n  \"Signed up\": { Low: 30, Typical: 50, High: 70 },\n  \"Observed usage\": { Low: 30, Typical: 50, High: 70 },\n  \"Signed intent\": { Low: 30, Typical: 50, High: 70 },\n  \"Paying users\": { Low: 30, Typical: 50, High: 70 },\n};","/**\n * Assumption completeness — a derived readiness meter, never stored.\n *\n * Replaces the old Gaps / presence-field machinery (OPS-1305): an assumption's\n * Draft-vs-Live readiness is the structural presence of its slots, not a set of\n * hand-maintained tags. `Completeness %` is `filled slots / all slots`; a\n * fully-filled assumption reads 100 and is Live-ready, an empty draft reads low.\n *\n * Slots (each an equal fifth):\n *   Description · Lens · Impact · Scoring justification · Dependencies traced\n *\n * Pure, no backend dependency — the same function the recompute pass stamps\n * into the derived tuple and the audit checks readiness against.\n */\n\n/** The structural slots whose presence makes an assumption Live-ready. */\nexport const COMPLETENESS_SLOTS = [\n  \"Description\",\n  \"Lens\",\n  \"Impact\",\n  \"Scoring justification\",\n  \"Dependencies traced\",\n] as const;\n\nexport type CompletenessSlot = (typeof COMPLETENESS_SLOTS)[number];\n\n/** The record shape completeness reads — an assumption's structural fields. */\nexport interface CompletenessInput {\n  Description?: unknown;\n  Lens?: unknown;\n  Impact?: unknown;\n  \"Scoring justification\"?: unknown;\n  dependsOnIds?: unknown;\n  enablesIds?: unknown;\n}\n\n/** A text slot is present only when it is a non-blank string. */\nfunction hasText(value: unknown): boolean {\n  return typeof value === \"string\" && value.trim().length > 0;\n}\n\n/** Impact is present when it is a real finite number (0 is a valid score). */\nfunction hasNumber(value: unknown): boolean {\n  return typeof value === \"number\" && Number.isFinite(value);\n}\n\n/** Dependencies are traced once at least one Depends on / Enables link exists. */\nfunction hasAny(value: unknown): boolean {\n  return Array.isArray(value) && value.length > 0;\n}\n\n/** Whether each slot is structurally present. */\nexport function completenessSlotPresence(\n  record: CompletenessInput,\n): Record<CompletenessSlot, boolean> {\n  return {\n    Description: hasText(record.Description),\n    Lens: hasText(record.Lens),\n    Impact: hasNumber(record.Impact),\n    \"Scoring justification\": hasText(record[\"Scoring justification\"]),\n    \"Dependencies traced\":\n      hasAny(record.dependsOnIds) || hasAny(record.enablesIds),\n  };\n}\n\n/** The slots that are absent or blank on a record. */\nexport function missingCompletenessSlots(\n  record: CompletenessInput,\n): CompletenessSlot[] {\n  const present = completenessSlotPresence(record);\n  return COMPLETENESS_SLOTS.filter((slot) => !present[slot]);\n}\n\n/** Completeness as a whole-number percentage (0, 20, 40, 60, 80, 100). */\nexport function assumptionCompleteness(record: CompletenessInput): number {\n  const present = completenessSlotPresence(record);\n  const filled = COMPLETENESS_SLOTS.filter((slot) => present[slot]).length;\n  return Math.round((filled / COMPLETENESS_SLOTS.length) * 100);\n}\n\n/** True when every slot is present — the structural precondition to be Live. */\nexport function assumptionComplete(record: CompletenessInput): boolean {\n  return missingCompletenessSlots(record).length === 0;\n}\n","/**\n * Strength — the signed reading value `s` the Confidence average reads.\n *\n * Formula (`ontology.yaml` → `derivations.strength`):\n *   rung anchor × magnitude band × sign(Result)\n *   — Validated positive, Invalidated negative; 0 unless Validated/Invalidated.\n *\n * Every rung now carries a magnitude band (0.14); the lookup is the same for\n * testing and market rungs.\n */\nimport type { MagnitudeBand, Result, Rung } from \"../types.js\";\nimport { RUNG_ANCHOR } from \"./rung.js\";\n\nexport function sign(result: Result): -1 | 0 | 1 {\n  if (result === \"Validated\") return 1;\n  if (result === \"Invalidated\") return -1;\n  return 0;\n}\n\n/** A reading counts toward Confidence only once concluded either way; an\n * Inconclusive reading carries no signal. The single definition the whole\n * derivation module (and its record→input mappers) share. */\nexport function isConcluded(result: Result): boolean {\n  return result === \"Validated\" || result === \"Invalidated\";\n}\n\nexport interface StrengthInput {\n  rung: Rung;\n  result: Result;\n  /** Magnitude band; defaults to \"Typical\" when absent. Applies to ALL rungs. */\n  magnitudeBand?: MagnitudeBand;\n}\n\nexport function readingStrength(input: StrengthInput): number {\n  const s = sign(input.result);\n  if (s === 0) return 0; // Inconclusive contributes nothing.\n  const band = input.magnitudeBand ?? \"Typical\";\n  return (RUNG_ANCHOR[input.rung]?.[band] ?? 0) * s;\n}","/**\n * Source quality — Representativeness × Credibility.\n *\n * Scales a Reading's *weight* in the Confidence average, within its rung.\n * We keep the raw product as the weight (matching the migration's\n * `remodel.mjs`); the five display anchors {0.25, 0.35, 0.5, 0.7, 1.0} are a\n * storage/display concern, not the weight used in the average.\n */\nimport { round2 } from \"./round.js\";\n\nexport function sourceQuality(\n  representativeness: number,\n  credibility: number,\n): number {\n  return round2(representativeness * credibility);\n}\n","/**\n * Shared registry types — the field vocabulary the whole system speaks.\n *\n * These mirror `skills/_shared/registry-schema.md` and `ontology.yaml` (the\n * single source of truth). Field *meaning* lives there; this file is the\n * checkable TypeScript shape the packages import.\n */\n\n/**\n * The five registers. `goals` was unified into `experiments` and the `people`\n * reference collection retired (OPS-1305): Owner / Agreed by now reference a\n * dashboard user (the auth-sourced team list), not a register row.\n */\nexport const REGISTERS = [\n  \"assumptions\",\n  \"experiments\",\n  \"readings\",\n  \"decisions\",\n  \"glossary\",\n] as const;\nexport type Register = (typeof REGISTERS)[number];\n\n/** There is no reference collection any more — a collection is a register. */\nexport type Collection = Register;\n\n/** Every stored record carries an id, a version, and timestamps. */\nexport interface BaseRecord {\n  id: string;\n  /** Optimistic-concurrency token; bumped on every write. */\n  version: number;\n  createdAt: string;\n  updatedAt: string;\n}\n\n// ── Vocabularies (canonical select-option lists) ────────────────────────────\n\nexport type AssumptionStatus = \"Draft\" | \"Live\" | \"Invalidated\";\n/**\n * The unified evidence-plan lifecycle (OPS-1305). `Draft` is the new gate a\n * commit clears (Draft→Running); conclude+verdict stays the Running→Closed\n * gate. Absorbs what the retired Goal record's status used to carry.\n */\nexport type ExperimentStatus = \"Draft\" | \"Running\" | \"Closed\" | \"Archived\";\nexport type DecisionStatus =\n  | \"Active\"\n  | \"Provisional\"\n  | \"Superseded\"\n  | \"Reversed\";\nexport type GlossaryStatus = \"Active\" | \"Provisional\" | \"Superseded\";\n\nexport type Result = \"Validated\" | \"Invalidated\" | \"Inconclusive\";\nexport type MagnitudeBand = \"Low\" | \"Typical\" | \"High\";\nexport type Feasibility = \"High\" | \"Medium\" | \"Low\";\n\n/**\n * The lens-aware ladder (DEV-5879). A rung is an evidence TYPE; magnitude band\n * (Low/Typical/High) is the intensity *within* a type. The band applies to\n * EVERY rung, so every rung looks up its anchor through\n * `RUNG_ANCHOR[rung][band]`.\n *\n *   Talk:           3 / 6 / 10   (Opinion / Pitch-deck / Anecdotal merged)\n *   Desk research:  15 / 15 / 15 (flat)\n *   Signed up:      30 / 50 / 70 (consumer lens's first do-rung)\n *   Observed usage: 30 / 50 / 70 (consumer lens; was Prototype usage + Survey\n *                                at scale)\n *   Signed intent:  30 / 50 / 70 (commercial/investor lens)\n *   Paying users:   30 / 50 / 70 (commercial/investor lens)\n *\n * The lens determines which \"do\" rungs are available; Talk + Desk work for any\n * lens. The rung-to-lens mapping is a grading guideline, not a schema\n * constraint — any Rung can appear on any assumption.\n */\nexport const TESTING_RUNGS = [\n  \"Talk\",\n  \"Desk research\",\n  \"Signed up\",\n  \"Observed usage\",\n] as const;\nexport const MARKET_RUNG_VALUES = [\"Signed intent\", \"Paying users\"] as const;\nexport type TestingRung = (typeof TESTING_RUNGS)[number];\nexport type MarketRung = (typeof MARKET_RUNG_VALUES)[number];\nexport type Rung = TestingRung | MarketRung;\n\n/** Representativeness and Credibility are each picked from these. */\nexport type SourceQualityPick = 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.5;\n\n// ── Records ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────\n\n/** The derived numbers stored on an assumption (never hand-typed). */\nexport interface AssumptionDerived {\n  derivedImpact: number;\n  risk: number;\n  confidence: number;\n  /** Structural readiness meter, 0–100 (see `derivation/completeness.ts`). */\n  completeness: number;\n}\n\nexport interface AssumptionRecord extends BaseRecord {\n  Title: string;\n  Description: string;\n  Lens: string | null;\n  Theme: string[];\n  /** The hand-scored seed (0–100), the only hand-scored number here. */\n  Impact: number | null;\n  Status: AssumptionStatus;\n  /** Reference to a dashboard user (auth team list), not a `people` row. */\n  Owner: string[];\n  moot: boolean;\n  /**\n   * Kept, narrowed to the Impact-seed rationale (OPS-1305): why the seed\n   * `Impact` was scored as it was, incl. dated moot lines. The `5 Whys`,\n   * `Metric for truth`, and `Gaps` fields are gone — the why-trace lives in the\n   * `Depends on / Enables` chain and the audit check-types are transient grill\n   * stages, not stored tags. Readiness is the derived `completeness`.\n   */\n  \"Scoring justification\": string;\n  dependsOnIds: string[];\n  enablesIds: string[];\n  contradictsIds: string[];\n  readingIds: string[];\n  derived: AssumptionDerived;\n}\n\n/**\n * One belief's scoring inside a reading — the per-assumption verdict an\n * artifact carries. A reading (one artifact ROW) may score several beliefs at\n * once. The Rung is a property of the artifact, so it (and the market magnitude\n * band) lives on the row, ONE per artifact (OPS 0.10): a reading is at a single\n * evidence rung and reads for/against each belief at that rung. Only the Result\n * and its rationale vary per belief. `strength` is derived (row rung × sign of\n * this belief's Result), never hand-typed.\n */\nexport interface BeliefScore {\n  assumptionId: string;\n  Result: Result;\n  /** The rationale for this belief's Result at the row's rung. */\n  \"Grading justification\": string;\n  /** Derived per belief: row rung anchor × sign(Result) [× row magnitude band]. */\n  derived: { strength: number };\n  /** Provenance: the original reading id this belief was migrated from. */\n  sourceReadingId?: string;\n  /** Optional review caveat, e.g. a second-hand-credibility note. */\n  reviewNote?: string;\n}\n\nexport interface ReadingRecord extends BaseRecord {\n  Title: string;\n  /** The independence/dedupe key — the generator (person / dataset / cohort). */\n  Source: string | null;\n  /**\n   * Provenance links (recording, dashboard, CRM row, user id) — 0..N, drives no\n   * math and never keys dedupe (OPS-1305). Split out from `Source` so the\n   * dedupe key stays narrow.\n   */\n  contextLinks: string[];\n  /** The originating plan, or null for a bare/found reading (no Goal origin). */\n  experimentId: string | null;\n  /** The evidence rung — one per artifact; every belief is scored at it (OPS 0.10). */\n  Rung: Rung;\n  /** For a Market-rung reading: the magnitude band from the absolute outcome. */\n  magnitudeBand?: MagnitudeBand;\n  Representativeness: SourceQualityPick;\n  Credibility: SourceQualityPick;\n  Date: string | null;\n  Owner: string[];\n  /** Free-text narrative of the reading. */\n  body?: string;\n  /** Per-belief scores — one artifact row can score several beliefs at once. */\n  beliefs: BeliefScore[];\n  /** Convenience projection of `beliefs[].assumptionId`; kept in sync on write. */\n  assumptionIds: string[];\n  derived: { sourceQuality: number };\n}\n\n/**\n * A pre-registered bar line — the per-belief pass/fail test on an experiment,\n * stored as an embedded array on the experiment (no identity of its own; see\n * `connectors/nosql-schema.md`). `barVerdict` is set once at closure and is a\n * report only — never folded into Confidence.\n */\nexport interface BarLine {\n  assumptionId: string;\n  rightIf: string;\n  wrongIf?: string | null;\n  plannedRung: Rung;\n  barVerdict?: Result | null;\n}\n\n/**\n * The derived numbers stored on an experiment (never hand-typed).\n * `experimentConfidence` is the [0, 100] confidence gauge (50 = neutral),\n * coverage-gated and verdict-aligned; see `derivation/experiment-confidence.ts`.\n */\nexport interface ExperimentDerived {\n  experimentConfidence: number;\n}\n\nexport interface ExperimentRecord extends BaseRecord {\n  Title: string;\n  Instrument: string | null;\n  Feasibility: Feasibility | null;\n  Status: ExperimentStatus;\n  /** Free-text narrative of the plan. */\n  body?: string;\n  closureReason: \"Completed\" | \"Early-stop\" | \"Kill\" | null;\n  /** Optional deadline a committed plan carries (folded in from the Goal). */\n  Deadline: string | null;\n  /** Terminal closure outcome, null until Closed (folded in from the Goal). */\n  Outcome: \"Achieved\" | \"Missed\" | \"Dropped\" | null;\n  /** Reference to a dashboard user, not a `people` row. */\n  Owner: string[];\n  Date: string | null;\n  /** The embedded pre-registered bar lines; drives progress-to-conclusion. */\n  barLines: BarLine[];\n  /** Convenience projection: the assumptions the bar lines test. */\n  barLineAssumptionIds: string[];\n  /** Derived numbers — recomputed on every touching write. */\n  derived?: ExperimentDerived;\n}\n\nexport interface DecisionRecord extends BaseRecord {\n  Title: string;\n  Status: DecisionStatus;\n  /** The one-line statement of what was decided (promoted from the body). */\n  Statement: string;\n  /** Why the Unanimity score was scored as it was (promoted from the body). */\n  \"Unanimity justification\": string;\n  /** References to dashboard users (auth team list), not `people` rows. */\n  Owner: string[];\n  \"Agreed by\": string[];\n  basedOnIds: string[];\n  resolvesIds: string[];\n}\n\n/** One structured \"don't say\" entry on a glossary term. */\nexport interface GlossaryAvoid {\n  audience: string;\n  phrase: string;\n  fix: string;\n}\n\nexport interface GlossaryRecord extends BaseRecord {\n  Title: string;\n  Status: GlossaryStatus;\n  /** All properties, no body (OPS-1305): the terminology check parses these. */\n  Definition: string;\n  Avoid: GlossaryAvoid[];\n  \"How it differs\": string;\n}\n\n/** A record of any register — the DataProvider's currency. */\nexport type AnyRecord = BaseRecord & Record<string, unknown>;\n\n// ── Relations (both-ends links) ─────────────────────────────────────────────\n\n/** A pointer to one record. */\nexport interface RecordRef {\n  register: Collection;\n  id: string;\n}\n\n/** The relations the dashboard can set (each writes both ends). */\nexport type Relation =\n  | \"assumption-reading\"\n  | \"assumption-depends-on\"\n  | \"assumption-contradicts\"\n  | \"reading-experiment\"\n  | \"decision-based-on\"\n  | \"decision-resolves\";\n","/**\n * Confidence — signed −100…100, 0 = no evidence.\n *\n * Formula (`ontology.yaml` → `derivations.confidence`):\n *   (Σ wi·si) / (Σ_rung W0[rung] + Σ wi),  per-rung W0,\n *   wi = |si| × Source quality × commitment,  si = the reading's signed Strength,\n *   commitment = 1.0 for an experiment-linked reading, 0.85 for a found one.\n *\n * W0 is per-rung: each rung has its own prior weight controlling how many\n * distinct sources it takes to approach that rung's anchor (cap). Desk\n * research has a low W0 (2 — one authoritative source nearly saturates);\n * talk rungs have a higher W0 (6.5 — needs ~10 readings to approach the\n * cap); do-rungs (Survey/Prototype/Signed/Paying) have high W0s (~120-410\n * — needs ~20 readings to reach 75% of cap). When readings span multiple\n * rungs, each rung with evidence contributes its W0 to the denominator\n * once (one prior per evidence stream).\n *\n * Only concluded Validated/Invalidated readings enter. Readings sharing a\n * Source against one belief dedupe to the strongest (largest |si|, most\n * recent on ties). Market-rung readings never dedupe (each closed commitment\n * is its own unit). No corroboration bump.\n */\nimport type { MagnitudeBand, Result, Rung } from \"../types.js\";\nimport { MARKET_RUNG_VALUES } from \"../types.js\";\nimport { round2 } from \"./round.js\";\nimport { sourceQuality } from \"./source-quality.js\";\nimport { isConcluded, readingStrength } from \"./strength.js\";\n\n/** Market rungs never dedupe (each closed commitment is its own unit). */\nconst MARKET_RUNG_SET = new Set<Rung>(MARKET_RUNG_VALUES);\nfunction isMarketRung(rung: Rung): boolean {\n  return MARKET_RUNG_SET.has(rung);\n}\n\n/**\n * Per-rung prior weight — controls how many distinct sources approach the\n * rung's anchor. Tuned so: Desk 2 readings → ~90% of cap; talk 10 readings →\n * ~90% of cap; do-rungs 20 readings → ~75% of cap. See\n * `docs/evidence-ladder.md` for the derivation.\n */\nexport const W0_BY_RUNG: Record<Rung, number> = {\n  // Talk — 10 readings → ~90% of cap.\n  Talk: 6.5,\n  // Desk research — 2 readings → ~90% of cap (authoritative, rare).\n  \"Desk research\": 2,\n  // All do-rungs — 20 readings → ~75% of cap. Equal ceilings (70) and equal\n  // W0s across consumer (Signed up / Observed usage) and commercial\n  // (Signed intent / Paying users) lenses.\n  \"Signed up\": 327,\n  \"Observed usage\": 327,\n  \"Signed intent\": 327,\n  \"Paying users\": 327,\n};\n\n/**\n * The neutral prior weight for a rung — how much evidence at this rung is\n * needed to overcome the prior. Per-rung (not a flat constant): see\n * {@link W0_BY_RUNG}.\n */\nexport function w0ForRung(rung: Rung): number {\n  return W0_BY_RUNG[rung] ?? 100;\n}\n\n/**\n * The legacy flat W0 — retained for backwards compatibility only. New code\n * should use {@link w0ForRung}. Equal to the old default of 100.\n * @deprecated Use {@link w0ForRung} for per-rung priors.\n */\nexport const W0 = 100;\n\n/**\n * Commitment factor for a *found* reading — one with no originating experiment.\n * A pre-registered (experiment-linked) reading weighs at full commitment (1.0);\n * a found reading is discounted to this. It is a SMALL tiebreaker: it scales the\n * weight only, never the Strength, so it can never reorder readings across rungs\n * (\"Rung dominates\").\n */\nexport const COMMITMENT_FOUND = 0.85;\n\nexport interface ConfidenceReadingInput {\n  id: string;\n  /** The independence-dedupe key. Null falls back to the reading's own id. */\n  source: string | null;\n  rung: Rung;\n  result: Result;\n  representativeness: number;\n  credibility: number;\n  /** ISO date; used only as the dedupe tie-break (most recent wins). */\n  date?: string | null;\n  magnitudeBand?: MagnitudeBand;\n  /**\n   * The originating experiment, or null/undefined for a *found* reading. Drives\n   * the commitment factor in the weight (found → {@link COMMITMENT_FOUND}).\n   */\n  experimentId?: string | null;\n}\n\n/** The commitment weighting for a reading: full for committed, discounted for found. */\nexport function commitmentFactor(experimentId: string | null | undefined): number {\n  return experimentId ? 1.0 : COMMITMENT_FOUND;\n}\n\nexport interface Scored {\n  input: ConfidenceReadingInput;\n  strength: number;\n  sq: number;\n  /** The reading's weight in the average: |strength| × Source quality × commitment. */\n  weight: number;\n}\n\n/**\n * Score every concluded reading and resolve the Source dedupe — the shared\n * front half of the Confidence average. `confidence()` reduces the winners to\n * a number; `confidenceAttribution()` reuses the same winners so the movers it\n * reports always decompose the very number the drawer shows. Market rungs never\n * dedupe (each closed commitment is its own unit).\n */\nexport function scoreAndDedupe(readings: ConfidenceReadingInput[]): Scored[] {\n  const scored: Scored[] = readings\n    .filter((r) => isConcluded(r.result))\n    .map((r) => {\n      const strength = readingStrength(r);\n      const sq = sourceQuality(r.representativeness, r.credibility);\n      const weight = Math.abs(strength) * sq * commitmentFactor(r.experimentId);\n      return { input: r, strength, sq, weight };\n    })\n    .filter((x) => x.strength !== 0);\n\n  const best = new Map<string, Scored>();\n  for (const x of scored) {\n    if (isMarketRung(x.input.rung)) {\n      best.set(x.input.id, x);\n      continue;\n    }\n    const key = x.input.source || x.input.id;\n    const cur = best.get(key);\n    const better =\n      !cur ||\n      Math.abs(x.strength) > Math.abs(cur.strength) ||\n      (Math.abs(x.strength) === Math.abs(cur.strength) &&\n        (x.input.date || \"\") > (cur.input.date || \"\"));\n    if (better) best.set(key, x);\n  }\n  return [...best.values()];\n}\n\nexport function confidence(readings: ConfidenceReadingInput[]): number {\n  const winners = scoreAndDedupe(readings);\n  // Per-rung prior: sum W0 once for each rung that has ≥1 concluded reading.\n  // This preserves each rung's accumulation behaviour independently — desk\n  // stays fast (low W0), talk stays slow (high W0) — and mixed-rung evidence\n  // gets each rung's prior added once (one prior per evidence stream).\n  const rungsPresent = new Set(winners.map((x) => x.input.rung));\n  let den = 0;\n  for (const rung of rungsPresent) den += w0ForRung(rung);\n  let num = 0;\n  for (const x of winners) {\n    num += x.weight * x.strength;\n    den += x.weight;\n  }\n  return den > 0 ? round2(num / den) : 0;\n}\n","/**\n * Confidence attribution — the \"what's moving the number\" half of the\n * understanding layer (OPS-1276). Decomposes an assumption's Confidence into\n * the experiments (and direct readings) contributing to it, ranked by how hard\n * each pushes the number up or down.\n *\n * A winner's contribution is its signed share of the average:\n *   cᵢ = (weightᵢ · strengthᵢ) / den,\n *   den = Σ_rung W0[rung] + Σ weight   (one prior per rung with evidence)\n * so Σ contributions = Σ(wᵢ·sᵢ)/den = Confidence (the W0·0 prior term is 0).\n * The reveal therefore literally adds up to the hero number. Contributions are\n * grouped by the reading's experiment (experiment-less readings — bare/found —\n * fall into a \"direct\" bucket), then ranked by |contribution|. A reading's\n * origin is an experiment or nothing; the retired Goal container is gone\n * (OPS-1305).\n */\nimport { w0ForRung, scoreAndDedupe, type ConfidenceReadingInput } from \"./confidence.js\";\nimport { round2 } from \"./round.js\";\n\n/**\n * The reading shape the attribution reveal consumes. `experimentId` (the\n * grouping key, and the commitment-factor driver) lives on\n * {@link ConfidenceReadingInput}; this alias marks the attribution call sites.\n */\nexport type AttributionReadingInput = ConfidenceReadingInput;\n\n/** What a mover is anchored to — an experiment, or nothing (direct). */\nexport type MoverKind = \"experiment\" | \"direct\";\n\nexport interface Mover {\n  /** Stable grouping key: the experiment id, or \"direct\". */\n  key: string;\n  kind: MoverKind;\n  /** The experiment id when `kind === \"experiment\"`, else null. */\n  experimentId: string | null;\n  /** Signed push on Confidence; the whole set sums to `confidence`. */\n  contribution: number;\n  /** |contribution| — the rank key and the \"how hard\" magnitude. */\n  magnitude: number;\n  /** How many (deduped) readings back this mover. */\n  readingCount: number;\n  /** The winning readings' ids, for drill-through. */\n  readingIds: string[];\n}\n\nexport interface Attribution {\n  /** The same Confidence the derived box shows (from the same winners). */\n  confidence: number;\n  /** Movers ranked by |contribution|, strongest first. */\n  movers: Mover[];\n}\n\nfunction bucketOf(r: AttributionReadingInput): {\n  key: string;\n  kind: MoverKind;\n  experimentId: string | null;\n} {\n  if (r.experimentId) {\n    return {\n      key: r.experimentId,\n      kind: \"experiment\",\n      experimentId: r.experimentId,\n    };\n  }\n  return { key: \"direct\", kind: \"direct\", experimentId: null };\n}\n\nexport function confidenceAttribution(\n  readings: AttributionReadingInput[],\n): Attribution {\n  const winners = scoreAndDedupe(readings);\n  // Per-rung prior: sum W0 once for each rung with ≥1 concluded reading,\n  // matching the `confidence()` formula.\n  const rungsPresent = new Set(winners.map((x) => x.input.rung));\n  let den = 0;\n  for (const rung of rungsPresent) den += w0ForRung(rung);\n  for (const x of winners) den += x.weight;\n\n  const byKey = new Map<string, Mover>();\n  let num = 0;\n  for (const x of winners) {\n    num += x.weight * x.strength;\n    const b = bucketOf(x.input as AttributionReadingInput);\n    const contribution = (x.weight * x.strength) / den;\n    const cur = byKey.get(b.key);\n    if (cur) {\n      cur.contribution += contribution;\n      cur.readingCount += 1;\n      cur.readingIds.push(x.input.id);\n    } else {\n      byKey.set(b.key, {\n        key: b.key,\n        kind: b.kind,\n        experimentId: b.experimentId,\n        contribution,\n        magnitude: 0, // finalised below\n        readingCount: 1,\n        readingIds: [x.input.id],\n      });\n    }\n  }\n\n  const movers = [...byKey.values()].map((m) => ({\n    ...m,\n    contribution: round2(m.contribution),\n    magnitude: round2(Math.abs(m.contribution)),\n  }));\n  movers.sort((a, b) => b.magnitude - a.magnitude);\n\n  return {\n    confidence: den > 0 ? round2(num / den) : 0,\n    movers,\n  };\n}\n","/**\n * Progress-to-conclusion — how close a running experiment is to concluding\n * (OPS-1276). An experiment concludes when every pre-registered bar line has\n * been given a Bar verdict; progress is the count of settled bars against the\n * total. Bar verdict is a report, never a Confidence input (nosql-schema.md),\n * so reading it here is exactly its intended use.\n */\nexport interface BarLineInput {\n  /** null/\"\" until the bar is judged at closure. */\n  barVerdict?: string | null;\n}\n\nexport interface Progress {\n  /** Pre-registered bar lines on the experiment. */\n  total: number;\n  /** Bars that have a verdict. */\n  settled: number;\n  /** Bars still awaiting a verdict. */\n  toGo: number;\n  /** True once every bar is settled (and there is at least one). */\n  concluded: boolean;\n}\n\nexport function experimentProgress(bars: BarLineInput[]): Progress {\n  const total = bars.length;\n  const settled = bars.filter(\n    (b) => typeof b.barVerdict === \"string\" && b.barVerdict.trim() !== \"\",\n  ).length;\n  return {\n    total,\n    settled,\n    toGo: total - settled,\n    concluded: total > 0 && settled === total,\n  };\n}\n","/**\n * Experiment confidence — a derived [0, 100] gauge for an evidence plan (0.14).\n *\n * Formula (`experimentConfidence`):\n *   clamp(50 + 50 × C × S + 5 × A, 0, 100)\n *\n * Where:\n *   B          = number of bar lines\n *   coveredLines = bar lines with ≥1 concluded reading (Validated/Invalidated)\n *   C          = |coveredLines| / max(B, 1)        — coverage factor ∈ [0, 1]\n *   For each concluded reading linked to the experiment (deduped by Source,\n *   same rule as `confidence.ts`):\n *     fᵢ = (strengthᵢ × sqᵢ) / MAX_STRENGTH         (signed)\n *     strengthᵢ = readingStrength({ rung, result, magnitudeBand })\n *     sqᵢ       = sourceQuality(representativeness, credibility)\n *   F = Σ fᵢ                                    (signed, after dedupe)\n *   S = F / (1 + |F|)                            — soft squash, ℝ → (−1, +1)\n *   A = Σ alignedⱼ / B                           — verdict alignment, per bar\n *     alignedⱼ = +1 if barVerdict agrees with the reading sign on bar j,\n *                −1 if it contradicts,\n *                 0 if Inconclusive or no readings on bar j\n *\n * Neutral = 50 (no evidence yet). Validated readings fill up, Invalidated\n * pull down. Coverage-gated (no readings → C=0 → 50). The 5×A term is a small\n * verdict-alignment nudge so a plan whose bars are settled the way the evidence\n * already points inches further in that direction.\n */\nimport type { MagnitudeBand, Result, Rung } from \"../types.js\";\nimport { round2 } from \"./round.js\";\nimport { sourceQuality } from \"./source-quality.js\";\nimport { isConcluded, readingStrength, sign } from \"./strength.js\";\n\n/** The reference maximum strength — the anchor of the highest rung band. */\nexport const MAX_STRENGTH = 99;\n\nexport interface ExperimentConfidenceBarInput {\n  assumptionId: string;\n  /** Set at closure; null/absent until then. */\n  barVerdict?: Result | null;\n}\n\nexport interface ExperimentConfidenceReadingInput {\n  id: string;\n  /** The independence-dedupe key. Null falls back to the reading's own id. */\n  source: string | null;\n  rung: Rung;\n  result: Result;\n  magnitudeBand?: MagnitudeBand;\n  representativeness: number;\n  credibility: number;\n  /** The assumption (bar line) this reading scores. */\n  assumptionId: string;\n}\n\nfunction clamp(n: number, lo: number, hi: number): number {\n  return Math.max(lo, Math.min(hi, n));\n}\n\n/**\n * Source dedupe — same rule as `confidence.ts`: group by Source (fall back to\n * the reading's own id), keep the entry with the largest |strength|. Market\n * rungs never dedupe (each closed commitment is its own unit). Mirrored here so\n * experiment confidence stays pure and self-contained.\n */\nfunction dedupeBySource(\n  readings: ExperimentConfidenceReadingInput[],\n): ExperimentConfidenceReadingInput[] {\n  const MARKET = new Set<Rung>([\"Signed intent\", \"Paying users\"]);\n  const best = new Map<string, ExperimentConfidenceReadingInput>();\n  for (const r of readings) {\n    if (MARKET.has(r.rung)) {\n      best.set(r.id, r);\n      continue;\n    }\n    const key = r.source || r.id;\n    const cur = best.get(key);\n    const s = Math.abs(readingStrength(r));\n    const better =\n      !cur ||\n      s > Math.abs(readingStrength(cur)) ||\n      (s === Math.abs(readingStrength(cur)) && (r.id > cur.id));\n    if (better) best.set(key, r);\n  }\n  return [...best.values()];\n}\n\n/**\n * Compute the experiment-confidence gauge. `bars` is the experiment's bar\n * lines; `readings` is the concluded readings linked to the experiment (the\n * caller filters to the experiment's `barLineAssumptionIds`).\n */\nexport function experimentConfidence(\n  bars: ExperimentConfidenceBarInput[],\n  readings: ExperimentConfidenceReadingInput[],\n): number {\n  const B = bars.length;\n\n  // Only concluded readings enter; dedupe by Source.\n  const concluded = dedupeBySource(\n    readings.filter((r) => isConcluded(r.result)),\n  );\n\n  // Coverage: bar lines with ≥1 concluded reading.\n  const barsWithReadings = new Set(\n    concluded.map((r) => r.assumptionId),\n  );\n  const covered = bars.filter((b) => barsWithReadings.has(b.assumptionId)).length;\n  const C = B > 0 ? covered / B : 0;\n\n  // F = Σ fᵢ (signed).\n  let F = 0;\n  for (const r of concluded) {\n    const strength = readingStrength(r);\n    const sq = sourceQuality(r.representativeness, r.credibility);\n    F += (strength * sq) / MAX_STRENGTH;\n  }\n  const S = F / (1 + Math.abs(F));\n\n  // Verdict alignment: per bar, +1 if barVerdict agrees with the net reading\n  // sign on that bar, −1 if it contradicts, 0 if Inconclusive or no readings.\n  const signByBar = new Map<string, number>();\n  for (const r of concluded) {\n    const s = sign(r.result);\n    signByBar.set(r.assumptionId, (signByBar.get(r.assumptionId) ?? 0) + s);\n  }\n  let A = 0;\n  for (const bar of bars) {\n    const net = signByBar.get(bar.assumptionId);\n    if (net === undefined || net === 0) continue; // no readings or net-zero\n    const v = bar.barVerdict;\n    if (v !== \"Validated\" && v !== \"Invalidated\") continue; // Inconclusive / unset\n    const barSign = v === \"Validated\" ? 1 : -1;\n    A += net * barSign > 0 ? 1 : -1;\n  }\n  if (B > 0) A /= B;\n\n  const raw = 50 + 50 * C * S + 5 * A;\n  return round2(clamp(raw, 0, 100));\n}","/**\n * Confidence over time — the story of how the number got where it is\n * (OPS-1276). At each date a concluded reading was dated, we recompute\n * Confidence over every concluded reading up to and including that date, using\n * the very same `confidence()` the derived box uses (so the last point equals\n * the hero number). Undated concluded readings have no place on the timeline\n * but still bear on the belief, so they are treated as always-present — folded\n * into every point — which keeps the final point equal to today's Confidence.\n */\nimport { confidence, type ConfidenceReadingInput } from \"./confidence.js\";\nimport { isConcluded } from \"./strength.js\";\n\nexport interface TrajectoryPoint {\n  /** ISO date at which Confidence took this value. */\n  date: string;\n  confidence: number;\n}\n\nexport function confidenceTrajectory(\n  readings: ConfidenceReadingInput[],\n): TrajectoryPoint[] {\n  const concluded = readings.filter((r) => isConcluded(r.result));\n  const undated = concluded.filter((r) => !r.date);\n  const dated = concluded.filter((r) => r.date);\n  if (dated.length === 0) return [];\n\n  const dates = [...new Set(dated.map((r) => r.date as string))].sort();\n  return dates.map((date) => ({\n    date,\n    // Everything dated on/before this point, plus the always-present undated.\n    confidence: confidence([\n      ...undated,\n      ...dated.filter((r) => (r.date as string) <= date),\n    ]),\n  }));\n}\n","/**\n * Derived Impact — propagates dependents' pull into a belief's seed.\n *\n * Formula (`ontology.yaml` → `derivations.derived_impact`):\n *   seed + (100 − seed) × S / (S + 100),  where\n *   S = Σ Derived Impact of assumptions whose `Depends on` names this row\n *       + 100 per standing (Provisional/Active) decision naming it via\n *         `Based on assumption`.\n *   Goals never contribute. Moot rows pin to 0 and contribute nothing.\n *\n * One reverse-topological pass (dependents first) with memoization and a\n * cycle guard, matching the instance's `migration/remodel.mjs`.\n */\nimport { round2 } from \"./round.js\";\n\nexport interface ImpactAssumptionInput {\n  id: string;\n  /** The hand-scored seed (0–100); null treated as 0. */\n  impact: number | null;\n  moot?: boolean;\n  /** Ids this assumption depends on. */\n  dependsOnIds: string[];\n}\n\n/**\n * @param assumptions the full register (never a filtered slice — a filter\n *   silently drops dependents from the propagation).\n * @param basedOnCounts id → number of standing decisions with a `Based on`\n *   link to that assumption. Each contributes +100 to S.\n */\nexport function derivedImpacts(\n  assumptions: ImpactAssumptionInput[],\n  basedOnCounts: Record<string, number> = {},\n): Map<string, number> {\n  const byId = new Map(assumptions.map((a) => [a.id, a]));\n\n  // dependents(X) = assumptions whose dependsOnIds includes X.\n  const dependents = new Map<string, string[]>();\n  for (const a of assumptions) dependents.set(a.id, []);\n  for (const a of assumptions) {\n    for (const dep of a.dependsOnIds) dependents.get(dep)?.push(a.id);\n  }\n\n  const memo = new Map<string, number>();\n  const compute = (id: string, seen: Set<string>): number => {\n    const cached = memo.get(id);\n    if (cached !== undefined) return cached;\n    if (seen.has(id)) return 0; // cycle guard\n    seen.add(id);\n    const a = byId.get(id);\n    if (!a) return 0;\n    if (a.moot) {\n      memo.set(id, 0);\n      return 0;\n    }\n    const seed = a.impact ?? 0;\n    let S = 0;\n    for (const depId of dependents.get(id) ?? []) {\n      const d = byId.get(depId);\n      if (d && !d.moot) S += compute(depId, seen);\n    }\n    S += 100 * (basedOnCounts[id] ?? 0);\n    const value = seed + (100 - seed) * (S / (S + 100));\n    const rounded = round2(value);\n    memo.set(id, rounded);\n    return rounded;\n  };\n\n  const out = new Map<string, number>();\n  for (const a of assumptions) out.set(a.id, compute(a.id, new Set()));\n  return out;\n}\n","/**\n * Risk — the belief's live standing.\n *\n * Formula (`ontology.yaml` → `derivations.risk`):\n *   Derived Impact × (1 − max(0, Confidence) / 100)\n * Ranges 0 to Derived Impact. Negative confidence does not raise Risk above\n * Derived Impact (the max(0, …) clamp).\n */\nimport { round2 } from \"./round.js\";\n\nexport function risk(derivedImpact: number, confidence: number): number {\n  return round2(derivedImpact * (1 - Math.max(0, confidence) / 100));\n}\n","/**\n * Portfolio progress — the one *cross-belief* reading (OPS-1293 / OPS-1300).\n *\n * Every other derived number here is per-record (risk/confidence/impact of one\n * belief). This is the whole-set roll-up behind the pipeline's headline: a\n * **burn-up**, \"% of identified risk bought down\" = Risk Retired ÷ Risk-ever-\n * identified across *all* beliefs, resolved ones included.\n *\n * Like `rankNextMoves`, it is a whole-set ordering computed **fresh on read**,\n * not stored — it stays out of the OPS-1251 on-write recompute (it only reads\n * numbers already kept current). Pure and numeric: the dashboard maps records\n * to these inputs (as `understanding.ts` maps readings), so the rule lives\n * once, here.\n *\n * The model (matches the OPS-1296 prototype's self-consistent maths):\n *   - **ever-identified** for a belief = the risk it represented at Confidence\n *     ≤ 0, i.e. its Derived Impact. A moot row's Derived Impact is pinned to 0,\n *     which would erase it from *both* sides of the fraction, so we floor\n *     ever-identified at the hand-scored seed Impact — mooting a belief must\n *     *retire* its risk, never shrink the denominator (the burn-up's whole\n *     point: resolved risk stays counted).\n *   - **live** risk = the belief's current Risk, or 0 once resolved (a kill or\n *     a moot resolves the uncertainty — that risk is bought down, not carried).\n *   - **retired** = ever-identified − live.\n */\nimport { round2 } from \"./round.js\";\n\nexport interface PortfolioBeliefInput {\n  id: string;\n  /** Derived Impact — the belief's risk at Confidence ≤ 0 (0 when moot). */\n  derivedImpact: number;\n  /** The hand-scored seed Impact; the ever-identified floor when moot zeroes\n   * Derived Impact. Null/absent treated as 0. */\n  seedImpact: number | null;\n  /** The belief's current live Risk (stored `derived.risk`). */\n  risk: number;\n  /** Resolved — Invalidated (killed) or moot. Its live risk reads 0 (fully\n   * retired), whatever the stored Risk number says. */\n  resolved: boolean;\n}\n\n/** One belief's contribution to the burn-up. */\nexport interface BeliefRisk {\n  /** Risk-ever-identified — the denominator's per-belief share. */\n  identified: number;\n  /** Live risk still carried (0 once resolved). */\n  live: number;\n  /** Risk bought down — the numerator's per-belief share. */\n  retired: number;\n}\n\nexport interface PortfolioProgress {\n  /** Σ risk-ever-identified — the burn-up denominator. */\n  identified: number;\n  /** Σ risk bought down — the burn-up numerator. */\n  retired: number;\n  /** Σ risk still live. */\n  live: number;\n  /** Retired ÷ identified as a percentage (0 when nothing is identified). */\n  percent: number;\n  /** Beliefs still in play (not resolved). */\n  liveCount: number;\n  /** Beliefs resolved (killed or moot). */\n  resolvedCount: number;\n}\n\n/** One belief's identified / live / retired risk — the rule in one place. */\nexport function beliefRisk(b: PortfolioBeliefInput): BeliefRisk {\n  const seed = b.seedImpact ?? 0;\n  const identified = Math.max(b.derivedImpact, seed, 0);\n  // Live risk can never exceed what was ever identified — the clamp keeps a\n  // stale/over-large stored Risk from making retired go negative.\n  const live = b.resolved ? 0 : Math.min(identified, Math.max(0, b.risk));\n  return {\n    identified: round2(identified),\n    live: round2(live),\n    retired: round2(identified - live),\n  };\n}\n\n/**\n * Roll every belief up into the portfolio burn-up. Pass the *whole* set\n * (resolved rows included) — a filtered slice understates the denominator and\n * makes fresh or retired risk read as backsliding.\n */\nexport function portfolioProgress(\n  beliefs: PortfolioBeliefInput[],\n): PortfolioProgress {\n  let identified = 0;\n  let live = 0;\n  let liveCount = 0;\n  let resolvedCount = 0;\n  for (const b of beliefs) {\n    const r = beliefRisk(b);\n    identified += r.identified;\n    live += r.live;\n    if (b.resolved) resolvedCount += 1;\n    else liveCount += 1;\n  }\n  const retired = identified - live;\n  return {\n    identified: round2(identified),\n    retired: round2(retired),\n    live: round2(live),\n    percent: identified > 0 ? round2((retired / identified) * 100) : 0,\n    liveCount,\n    resolvedCount,\n  };\n}\n","/**\n * Next-move ranking — the front door's single source of truth for \"what should\n * I do next\" (build OPS-1304; placement OPS-1292; action vocabulary OPS-1291).\n *\n * Ranks *beliefs* — Model A: point at one belief, not a heterogeneous triage\n * queue (OPS-1291) — by the method's Feasibility × Risk rule (`docs/method.md`,\n * `ontology.yaml` → `derived_views.next_move`), and names the single act each\n * belief's stage demands. A belief at Confidence ≤ −50 jumps into a distinct\n * kill/re-test lane that sorts above the Feasibility × Risk order regardless of\n * rank — the one place act-urgency beats belief-risk (`derived_views.kill_lane`).\n *\n * Computed fresh on read: a whole-set ordering, so it stays OUT of the OPS-1251\n * on-write recompute — it reads the derived numbers (Risk, Confidence) those\n * writes already keep current. Pure: no I/O, no caching, no weights framework —\n * the enum→multiplier map below IS the formula (OPS-1292: \"no weights /\n * strategies / caching / framework\").\n */\nimport type { Feasibility } from \"../types.js\";\nimport { round2 } from \"./round.js\";\n\n/** The kill/re-test threshold — Confidence at or below this is the kill lane. */\nexport const KILL_LANE_THRESHOLD = -50;\n\n/**\n * The acts the front door can name, one per belief-stage. The front door\n * *names* all of them; only a subset are human step-in forms — the rest are\n * agent-run / off-dashboard (OPS-1294). Which is which is a presentation\n * concern the dashboard owns, not this ranking.\n */\nexport type MoveKind =\n  | \"score-impact\" // Framed — the belief isn't weighted yet (Impact unscored)\n  | \"design-experiment\" // Planned — no test plans this belief yet\n  | \"record-reading\" // Tested — a test is running, evidence still landing\n  | \"decide\" // Known — evidence has landed and no decision rests on it\n  | \"retest\"; // kill lane — Confidence ≤ −50, jumps the ordering\n\n/**\n * One belief's next move. `move`/`score`/`reason` are the OPS-1292 output\n * contract; the rest is context the front door renders (the risk chip, the kill\n * banner, the step-in adaptation) — every field read from the inputs, nothing\n * new computed here.\n */\nexport interface NextMove {\n  /** The act this belief's stage demands. */\n  move: MoveKind;\n  assumptionId: string;\n  /** The belief statement — the hero headline. */\n  title: string;\n  /** Feasibility × Risk. Kill-lane rows carry their Risk and sort first. */\n  score: number;\n  /** Plain-language \"why this\" — explains from the inputs, no jargon. */\n  reason: string;\n  /** The belief's live derived Risk (0–100). */\n  risk: number;\n  /** The belief's live derived Confidence (signed −100…100). */\n  confidence: number;\n  /** The feasibility that fed the score; null when no test plans it yet. */\n  feasibility: Feasibility | null;\n  /** Confidence ≤ −50 — the override lane. */\n  killLane: boolean;\n}\n\n/** A belief and its live derived numbers (the ranking's primary input). */\nexport interface NextMoveAssumptionInput {\n  id: string;\n  title: string;\n  /** AssumptionStatus; `Invalidated` rows are already killed and drop out. */\n  status: string;\n  /** The hand-scored seed (0–100); null means unscored → \"score impact\". */\n  impact: number | null;\n  /** Mooted beliefs (Impact pinned to 0 by a decision) drop out of ranking. */\n  moot: boolean;\n  /** Derived Risk (already recomputed on write — read, never recomputed). */\n  risk: number;\n  /** Derived Confidence (already recomputed on write). */\n  confidence: number;\n  /** How many concluded (Validated/Invalidated) readings back this belief. */\n  concludedReadings: number;\n}\n\n/** An experiment, reduced to what stage + feasibility resolution needs. */\nexport interface NextMoveExperimentInput {\n  /** ExperimentStatus — \"Running\" | \"Closed\". */\n  status: string;\n  feasibility: Feasibility | null;\n  /** The assumption ids this experiment's bar lines name. */\n  assumptionIds: string[];\n}\n\n/** A decision, reduced to which beliefs it rests on or resolves. */\nexport interface NextMoveDecisionInput {\n  /** DecisionStatus; only standing (Active/Provisional) decisions count. */\n  status: string;\n  /** The assumption ids this decision rests on (`based on`) or resolves. */\n  assumptionIds: string[];\n}\n\nexport interface NextMoveInput {\n  assumptions: NextMoveAssumptionInput[];\n  experiments: NextMoveExperimentInput[];\n  decisions: NextMoveDecisionInput[];\n}\n\n/**\n * Feasibility → the score multiplier. Cheaper (more feasible) tests rank\n * higher, so the cheapest honest test of the riskiest belief is on top\n * (`method.md`). A belief with no planned test yet has unknown feasibility →\n * the neutral middle, so Risk decides its place honestly.\n */\nconst FEASIBILITY_WEIGHT: Record<Feasibility, number> = {\n  High: 1,\n  Medium: 0.6,\n  Low: 0.3,\n};\nconst NEUTRAL_FEASIBILITY_WEIGHT = FEASIBILITY_WEIGHT.Medium;\n\nfunction isStanding(decisionStatus: string): boolean {\n  return decisionStatus === \"Active\" || decisionStatus === \"Provisional\";\n}\n\n/** Pick the cheapest (highest-weight) feasibility among a belief's tests. */\nfunction bestFeasibility(\n  feasibilities: (Feasibility | null)[],\n): Feasibility | null {\n  let best: Feasibility | null = null;\n  let bestWeight = -1;\n  for (const f of feasibilities) {\n    if (!f) continue;\n    const w = FEASIBILITY_WEIGHT[f];\n    if (w > bestWeight) {\n      bestWeight = w;\n      best = f;\n    }\n  }\n  return best;\n}\n\n/**\n * The act a belief's stage demands (before the kill-lane override).\n *\n * Deliberately NOT the `stage.ts` structural classifier: that answers \"how far\n * along the Framed→Planned→Tested→Known artifacts are\" (framing completeness,\n * bar-line settlement); this answers \"what should the founder do next\" from the\n * evidence state (is it weighted, has evidence concluded, does a test run, does\n * a decision rest on it). Same belief can be structurally `tested` yet owe a\n * `decide` here — the journey rail (stage) and next-move card (act) are two\n * readings of one belief, so they share the test-plan *meter* (`beliefTestMeters`)\n * but not the classifier.\n */\nfunction stageMove(\n  a: NextMoveAssumptionInput,\n  hasRunningTest: boolean,\n  hasAnyTest: boolean,\n  hasStandingDecision: boolean,\n): MoveKind | null {\n  if (a.impact === null) return \"score-impact\"; // Framed → weight it\n  if (a.concludedReadings === 0) {\n    // No evidence yet: if a test is running, wait for readings; else plan one.\n    return hasRunningTest ? \"record-reading\" : \"design-experiment\";\n  }\n  // Evidence has landed. If nothing rests on it yet, it's time to decide;\n  // once a standing decision does, the belief is resolved and drops out.\n  if (!hasStandingDecision) return \"decide\";\n  return null;\n}\n\n/** Plain-language \"why this\" — explains the move from the inputs. */\nfunction reasonFor(move: MoveKind, a: NextMoveAssumptionInput): string {\n  switch (move) {\n    case \"retest\":\n      return `Confidence has fallen to ${Math.round(a.confidence)} — the evidence is turning against this belief. Kill it or test it again.`;\n    case \"score-impact\":\n      return \"This belief isn't weighted yet — score its impact so its risk can rank against the rest.\";\n    case \"design-experiment\":\n      return `Your riskiest untested belief. Design the cheapest honest test that could move it.`;\n    case \"record-reading\":\n      return \"A test is running against this belief — evidence is still landing.\";\n    case \"decide\":\n      return \"The evidence is in and nothing rests on it yet — time to make the call.\";\n  }\n}\n\n/**\n * Rank every unresolved belief into its next move (Model A). Returns a plain\n * sorted list, most-pressing first: the kill lane on top (by Risk), then the\n * rest by Feasibility × Risk, tie-broken by the most-negative Confidence\n * (`derived_views.test_next_surface`), then by id for a stable order. The front\n * door takes the head as the hero and the tail as \"On deck\" / manual override.\n */\nexport function rankNextMoves(input: NextMoveInput): NextMove[] {\n  const { assumptions, experiments, decisions } = input;\n\n  // Which experiments (and their feasibilities/statuses) name each belief.\n  const testsByAssumption = new Map<\n    string,\n    { running: boolean; any: boolean; feasibilities: (Feasibility | null)[] }\n  >();\n  for (const exp of experiments) {\n    const running = exp.status === \"Running\";\n    for (const id of exp.assumptionIds) {\n      const entry = testsByAssumption.get(id) ?? {\n        running: false,\n        any: false,\n        feasibilities: [],\n      };\n      entry.any = true;\n      entry.running = entry.running || running;\n      entry.feasibilities.push(exp.feasibility);\n      testsByAssumption.set(id, entry);\n    }\n  }\n\n  // Which beliefs a standing decision rests on or resolves.\n  const decidedAssumptions = new Set<string>();\n  for (const d of decisions) {\n    if (!isStanding(d.status)) continue;\n    for (const id of d.assumptionIds) decidedAssumptions.add(id);\n  }\n\n  const moves: NextMove[] = [];\n  for (const a of assumptions) {\n    if (a.moot || a.status === \"Invalidated\") continue;\n\n    const killLane = a.confidence <= KILL_LANE_THRESHOLD;\n    const tests = testsByAssumption.get(a.id);\n    const feasibility = bestFeasibility(tests?.feasibilities ?? []);\n\n    const move: MoveKind | null = killLane\n      ? \"retest\"\n      : stageMove(\n          a,\n          tests?.running ?? false,\n          tests?.any ?? false,\n          decidedAssumptions.has(a.id),\n        );\n    if (move === null) continue; // resolved — no move\n\n    const weight = feasibility\n      ? FEASIBILITY_WEIGHT[feasibility]\n      : NEUTRAL_FEASIBILITY_WEIGHT;\n    // Kill-lane rows carry their raw Risk so they order among themselves by\n    // Risk; the killLane flag (not the score) floats them above everyone else.\n    const score = round2(killLane ? a.risk : weight * a.risk);\n\n    moves.push({\n      move,\n      assumptionId: a.id,\n      title: a.title,\n      score,\n      reason: reasonFor(move, a),\n      risk: a.risk,\n      confidence: a.confidence,\n      feasibility,\n      killLane,\n    });\n  }\n\n  moves.sort((x, y) => {\n    if (x.killLane !== y.killLane) return x.killLane ? -1 : 1;\n    if (y.score !== x.score) return y.score - x.score;\n    if (x.confidence !== y.confidence) return x.confidence - y.confidence;\n    return x.assumptionId < y.assumptionId ? -1 : 1;\n  });\n  return moves;\n}\n","/**\n * Per-belief stage — where one belief sits on the loop's four-stage spine\n * (Framed → Planned → Tested → Known) and its four meters (OPS-1329).\n *\n * This is the *single-belief* analogue of the pipeline's cross-belief roll-up:\n * the pipeline row-builder used to derive framing / test-plan / test-progress\n * inline, and the front-door move ladder (OPS-1304) re-walked the same stages a\n * second way. The shared classification lives here now, so the pipeline board,\n * the front door, and the per-belief journey rail all read one rule rather than\n * three that can drift.\n *\n * Pure and computed fresh on read (like `portfolio.ts` / `next-move.ts`): it\n * only reads numbers already kept current, so it stays out of the OPS-1251\n * on-write recompute. The record → meter mapping (bar lines, presence fields)\n * lives in the dashboard, as elsewhere; this module takes the reduced inputs.\n */\nimport { KILL_LANE_THRESHOLD } from \"./next-move.js\";\n\n/** The four loop stages a belief travels, in order (OPS-1293). */\nexport type StageKey = \"framed\" | \"planned\" | \"tested\" | \"known\";\n\n/** Sign of a belief's Confidence — the Known meter's direction. */\nexport type ConfSign = \"pos\" | \"neg\" | \"zero\";\n\n/** One belief's test state, aggregated across every experiment aimed at it. */\nexport interface TestMeter {\n  /** A bar line (or the convenience projection) names this belief. */\n  planned: boolean;\n  /** Pre-registered bars that have a verdict. */\n  settled: number;\n  /** Pre-registered bars in total. */\n  total: number;\n}\n\n/** A test's bar lines, reduced to what the meter needs (register-agnostic). */\nexport interface StageExperimentInput {\n  /** Each bar line naming a belief, and whether it has settled (has a verdict). */\n  bars: { assumptionId: string; settled: boolean }[];\n  /** Beliefs this test plans via the convenience projection (bars may be unexpanded). */\n  plannedAssumptionIds: string[];\n}\n\n/** The reduced inputs one belief's stage is derived from. */\nexport interface BeliefStageInput {\n  /** Framing completeness, 0–100 (`assumptionCompleteness`). */\n  framed: number;\n  /** Live derived Confidence (signed −100…100). */\n  confidence: number;\n  /** This belief's aggregated test state. */\n  test: TestMeter;\n}\n\n/** One belief's position on the spine plus its four meters. */\nexport interface BeliefStage {\n  /** Where the belief sits: framed → planned → tested → known. */\n  stage: StageKey;\n  /** Meter 1 — framing completeness, 0–100. */\n  framed: number;\n  /** Meter 2 — a test has been designed against this belief. */\n  planned: boolean;\n  /** Meter 3 — pre-registered bars settled / total. */\n  tested: { settled: number; total: number };\n  /** Meter 4 — signed Known: the belief's Confidence. */\n  confidence: number;\n  /** Sign bucket for the Known gauge direction. */\n  confSign: ConfSign;\n  /** Confidence ≤ −50 — the kill/re-test overlay (the same lane as the front door). */\n  killZone: boolean;\n}\n\n/** An empty test state — a belief no experiment has named yet. */\nexport function emptyTestMeter(): TestMeter {\n  return { planned: false, settled: 0, total: 0 };\n}\n\n/**\n * For every belief, the state of the tests aimed at it — whether one is designed\n * and how many of its pre-registered bars have settled, aggregated across all\n * experiments. Factored out of the pipeline row-builder so the board and a\n * single belief's rail agree by construction.\n */\nexport function beliefTestMeters(\n  experiments: StageExperimentInput[],\n): Map<string, TestMeter> {\n  const byAssumption = new Map<string, TestMeter>();\n  const ensure = (id: string): TestMeter => {\n    let s = byAssumption.get(id);\n    if (!s) {\n      s = emptyTestMeter();\n      byAssumption.set(id, s);\n    }\n    return s;\n  };\n  for (const exp of experiments) {\n    for (const b of exp.bars) {\n      if (!b.assumptionId) continue;\n      const s = ensure(b.assumptionId);\n      s.planned = true;\n      s.total += 1;\n      if (b.settled) s.settled += 1;\n    }\n    // A designed test may name a belief via the convenience projection even when\n    // its bar lines aren't expanded — still counts as Planned.\n    for (const id of exp.plannedAssumptionIds) ensure(id).planned = true;\n  }\n  return byAssumption;\n}\n\n/**\n * Classify a belief on the spine from its meters. The kill-zone overlay is\n * *not* a stage — a belief whose evidence has turned is still structurally\n * wherever its framing/tests put it (a re-test moves it backward via the Known\n * meter, OPS-1300), so this stays pure status.\n */\nexport function classifyStage(framed: number, test: TestMeter): StageKey {\n  if (framed < 100) return \"framed\";\n  if (!test.planned) return \"planned\";\n  if (test.total === 0 || test.settled < test.total) return \"tested\";\n  return \"known\";\n}\n\n/** One belief's stage + four meters — the rail's data. */\nexport function deriveBeliefStage(input: BeliefStageInput): BeliefStage {\n  const { framed, confidence, test } = input;\n  return {\n    stage: classifyStage(framed, test),\n    framed,\n    planned: test.planned,\n    tested: { settled: test.settled, total: test.total },\n    confidence,\n    confSign: confidence > 0 ? \"pos\" : confidence < 0 ? \"neg\" : \"zero\",\n    killZone: confidence <= KILL_LANE_THRESHOLD,\n  };\n}\n","/**\n * The per-belief journey event log (OPS-1329) — the belief's life ordered into\n * dated events: bet → score → experiment → readings → confidence-cross → now.\n * It is the *story* half of the journey drill-in (the *rail* half is `stage.ts`).\n *\n * No new maths: Confidence at each point is read off `confidenceTrajectory`\n * (the very numbers the understanding layer already shows), and the current\n * number off `confidence()`. Nothing is invented — an event whose underlying\n * datum is absent (no impact score, no experiment, no concluded reading, no\n * kill-zone cross) is simply omitted, and no date is ever faked (an event with\n * no real date carries `date: null` and takes its place by structural order).\n *\n * Pure and label-free: the dashboard journey view-model adds the copy. Computed\n * fresh on read, out of the OPS-1251 on-write recompute.\n */\nimport type { Result } from \"../types.js\";\nimport type { AttributionReadingInput } from \"./attribution.js\";\nimport { confidence } from \"./confidence.js\";\nimport { KILL_LANE_THRESHOLD } from \"./next-move.js\";\nimport { isConcluded } from \"./strength.js\";\nimport { confidenceTrajectory } from \"./trajectory.js\";\n\n/** The kinds of event a belief's life produces, in structural order. */\nexport type JourneyEventKind =\n  | \"bet\" // the belief was written\n  | \"score\" // its impact was scored\n  | \"experiment\" // a test was designed against it\n  | \"reading\" // evidence landed\n  | \"confidence-cross\" // Confidence fell into the kill zone\n  | \"now\"; // the belief's state today\n\n/** The structural order the story walks — the tie-break for undated events. */\nconst KIND_ORDER: Record<JourneyEventKind, number> = {\n  bet: 0,\n  score: 1,\n  experiment: 2,\n  reading: 3,\n  \"confidence-cross\": 4,\n  now: 5,\n};\n\n/** One event in a belief's life. Label-free — the view-model adds the copy. */\nexport interface JourneyEvent {\n  kind: JourneyEventKind;\n  /** ISO date, or null when no real date exists (never faked). */\n  date: string | null;\n  /** Confidence known at this event (reading / cross / now); null otherwise. */\n  confidence: number | null;\n  /** The reading's verdict, for `reading` events; null otherwise. */\n  result: Result | null;\n  /** The source record id (reading id, experiment id) when the event has one. */\n  refId: string | null;\n}\n\n/** The belief itself, reduced to what the log needs. */\nexport interface JourneyBeliefInput {\n  /** When the bet was written — the `bet` event's date. */\n  createdAt: string | null;\n  /** Impact has been scored (a non-null seed) — emits the `score` event. */\n  impactScored: boolean;\n}\n\n/** A test aimed at this belief, reduced to what the log needs. */\nexport interface JourneyExperimentInput {\n  id: string;\n  /** When the test was designed; null when unknown (event still emitted, undated). */\n  date: string | null;\n}\n\nexport interface AssembleJourneyInput {\n  belief: JourneyBeliefInput;\n  /** The belief's own readings (already filtered to this assumption). */\n  readings: AttributionReadingInput[];\n  /** The experiments testing this belief. */\n  experiments: JourneyExperimentInput[];\n  /** \"Now\" as an ISO date — passed in so the log stays pure. */\n  now: string;\n}\n\n/**\n * Assemble one belief's chronological event log. Events sort by date, undated\n * events anchored to the bet's date and ordered structurally; `now` is always\n * last.\n */\nexport function assembleJourney(input: AssembleJourneyInput): JourneyEvent[] {\n  const { belief, readings, experiments, now } = input;\n  const events: JourneyEvent[] = [];\n\n  if (belief.createdAt) {\n    events.push(event(\"bet\", belief.createdAt));\n  }\n  if (belief.impactScored) {\n    // No scored-on date is stored, so the score rides structurally after the\n    // bet rather than carrying an invented date.\n    events.push(event(\"score\", null));\n  }\n  for (const e of experiments) {\n    events.push(event(\"experiment\", e.date, { refId: e.id }));\n  }\n\n  const trajectory = confidenceTrajectory(readings);\n  const confByDate = new Map(trajectory.map((p) => [p.date, p.confidence]));\n  for (const r of readings) {\n    const dated = r.date ?? null;\n    // Confidence is known only for a concluded reading that lands on a\n    // trajectory date (undated / inconclusive readings carry no number).\n    const conf =\n      dated && isConcluded(r.result) ? (confByDate.get(dated) ?? null) : null;\n    events.push(\n      event(\"reading\", dated, { confidence: conf, result: r.result, refId: r.id }),\n    );\n  }\n\n  // The first point at which the evidence dragged Confidence into the kill zone.\n  const cross = trajectory.find((p) => p.confidence <= KILL_LANE_THRESHOLD);\n  if (cross) {\n    events.push(event(\"confidence-cross\", cross.date, { confidence: cross.confidence }));\n  }\n\n  // Undated events anchor to the bet so they sit at the start in structural\n  // order; `now` is appended after sorting so it is unconditionally last.\n  const anchor = belief.createdAt ?? \"\";\n  events.sort((a, b) => {\n    const ka = a.date ?? anchor;\n    const kb = b.date ?? anchor;\n    if (ka !== kb) return ka < kb ? -1 : 1;\n    return KIND_ORDER[a.kind] - KIND_ORDER[b.kind];\n  });\n  events.push(event(\"now\", now, { confidence: confidence(readings) }));\n\n  return events;\n}\n\nfunction event(\n  kind: JourneyEventKind,\n  date: string | null,\n  extra: Partial<Pick<JourneyEvent, \"confidence\" | \"result\" | \"refId\">> = {},\n): JourneyEvent {\n  return {\n    kind,\n    date,\n    confidence: extra.confidence ?? null,\n    result: extra.result ?? null,\n    refId: extra.refId ?? null,\n  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