@v587d/capital-generation 2.7.7 → 2.7.9

package/selected-skills/financeskills/skills/personal-budgeting/references/spending-categories.md

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+# Spending Categories Guide
+
+Standard taxonomy for classifying personal expenses. Use consistently across months for valid trend analysis.
+
+## Needs (Essential)
+| Category | Examples |
+|---|---|
+| Housing | Rent, mortgage, property tax, HOA |
+| Utilities | Electricity, gas, water, internet, phone |
+| Groceries | Supermarket food and household basics |
+| Transport | Fuel, public transit, car insurance, maintenance |
+| Insurance | Health, life, renters/home |
+| Minimum debt payments | Credit card minimums, student loan minimums |
+| Childcare / education | School fees, daycare |
+
+## Wants (Discretionary)
+| Category | Examples |
+|---|---|
+| Dining & takeaway | Restaurants, cafes, food delivery |
+| Entertainment | Streaming, cinema, concerts, sports |
+| Subscriptions | Software, magazines, gym (if non-essential) |
+| Clothing | Non-essential apparel and accessories |
+| Hobbies | Sports equipment, crafts, gaming |
+| Travel | Holidays, weekend trips |
+| Personal care | Haircuts, cosmetics above basics |
+
+## Savings & Debt Payoff
+| Category | Examples |
+|---|---|
+| Emergency fund | High-yield savings account contributions |
+| Retirement | 401(k), IRA, pension contributions |
+| Investments | Brokerage, ISA, index funds |
+| Extra debt repayment | Above-minimum payments on loans/cards |
+| Sinking funds | Car replacement, home repairs, annual expenses |
+
+## Classification Tips
+- **Internet**: Needs if required for work/study; Wants if purely recreational.
+- **Gym membership**: Needs if medically required; Wants otherwise.
+- **Life insurance**: Always a Need.
+- **Streaming services**: Wants (one service could be debated as Need if it replaces more expensive entertainment).

package/selected-skills/financeskills/skills/predictive-burn-rate/EXAMPLE.md

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+# Worked Example - predictive-burn-rate
+
+## Ask
+
+> Our burn rate has been $100k, $120k, and $150k over the last 3 months. We have $1M in the bank. When do we run out of money?
+
+## What a correct response contains
+
+Should identify the accelerating burn trend. Should note that a simple average is dangerous due to the acceleration. Should calculate the 'Zero Date' based on the trend (approx. 5-6 months). Should suggest using Prophet for a more detailed seasonal forecast. Should provide a Runway Forecast Report.
+
+## File-driven variant
+
+With fixture(s) `evals/files/monthly_cash.csv`:
+
+> Cash on hand is $7,500,000. Using the attached six months of actuals (evals/files/monthly_cash.csv), compute monthly net burn, the trailing 3-month average, simple runway in months, and comment on the burn trend.
+
+Expected: Net burn rising from $510,000 to $584,000; trailing 3-month avg $569,667; simple runway 13.2 months; trend-adjusted runway is shorter - flag it.
+
+## Compute, don't estimate
+
+All figures above come from [`scripts/calculate.py`](./scripts/calculate.py) - import its functions rather than doing arithmetic in prose.

package/selected-skills/financeskills/skills/predictive-burn-rate/SKILL.md

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+---
+name: predictive-burn-rate
+description: When the user wants to predict future cash consumption and "Runway" using time-series AI models. Also use when the user mentions "startup runway," "predicting cash out," "future burn rate," "Prophet for finance," "LSTM cash forecasting," or "when will we run out of money."
+metadata:
+  version: 1.0.0
+---
+
+# Predictive Burn Rate
+
+You are a Startup Data Scientist. Your goal is to use time-series forecasting to predict exactly when a company will require more capital, accounting for seasonality and growth trends.
+
+## Initial Assessment
+
+1. **Cash Flow Data**
+   - Do we have monthly net cash flow (Net Burn) for at least 12-24 months?
+   - What are the major "lumpy" expenses? (e.g., Annual software renewals, bi-annual bonuses).
+
+2. **Growth Assumptions**
+   - Are headcount and marketing spend scaling linearly or exponentially?
+   - Is there a "Target Zero" date for profitability?
+
+---
+
+## Predictive Framework
+
+### Technical Limitation
+Linear extrapolations (Actuals / Average Burn) are often wrong because they ignore seasonality. This skill uses **Prophet** or **ARIMA** logic for more accurate modeling.
+
+### Priority Order
+1. **Decomposition** (Separating Trend, Seasonality, and Noise).
+2. **Growth Modeling** (Adjusting the burn rate based on headcount growth).
+3. **Runway Calculation** (Predicting the month the cash balance hits zero).
+4. **Buffer Analysis** (Identifying the "Safety Zone" for fundraising).
+
+---
+
+## Technical Predictive Steps
+
+### 1. Time-Series Decomposition
+- Identify if the burn rate is increasing due to a long-term trend or a one-time seasonal spike (e.g., Q4 marketing push).
+
+### 2. Facebook Prophet Integration
+- Use the `Prophet` library to handle missing data and outliers while modeling complex seasonality (holiday effects).
+
+### 3. Scenario Probability
+- Instead of one date, provide a probability distribution: "70% chance of cash out in Oct, 20% in Nov, 10% in Dec."
+
+---
+
+## Output Format
+
+### Runway Forecast Report
+
+**The Prediction**
+- **Estimated Cash Out Date**: The "Zero Date."
+- **Current Runway**: Expressed in months.
+- **Trend Rating**: (e.g., "Accelerating Burn," "Stabilizing").
+
+**AI Visuals (Description)**
+- Confidence intervals for the next 12 months.
+- Breakdown of burn drivers (fixed vs. variable).
+
+**Actionable Insight**
+- "Fundraising Trigger": The date you must start your next round to avoid a cash crunch.
+
+---
+
+## Scripts
+- [calculate.py](./scripts/calculate.py): Runway, growth-adjusted burn, and collections curve functions. Run with `python3 scripts/calculate.py` to self-test; import the functions for actual computations.
+
+---
+
+## References
+- [Time Series Basics](./references/time-series-forecasting.md): ARIMA vs. Prophet.
+- [Startup Runway Metrics](./references/startup-metrics.md): How VCs look at burn.
+
+---
+
+## Related Skills
+- **budget-forecast**: For the manual planning of the burn rate.
+- **treasury-management**: For managing the cash reserves predicted here.
+- **investment-analysis**: For valuing the startup based on its burn and growth.

package/selected-skills/financeskills/skills/predictive-burn-rate/references/startup-metrics.md

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+# Startup Financial Metrics
+
+## Burn and Runway
+- **Gross burn**: total monthly cash outflows.
+- **Net burn**: gross burn − cash collections. The runway number.
+- **Runway**: months until cash < safety floor. Investors expect 18–24 months post-raise.
+- **Default alive test** (Paul Graham): at current growth and burn trajectory, does the company reach profitability before cash-out?
+
+## Efficiency Metrics
+- **Burn multiple** = Net burn / Net new ARR. < 1 excellent, 1–1.5 good, > 2 concerning (Sacks framework).
+- **CAC payback** = CAC / (new ARR per customer × gross margin), in months. < 12 strong, < 18 acceptable B2B.
+- **LTV:CAC** ≥ 3 healthy (but meaningless pre-churn-data).
+- **Magic number** = Net new ARR × 4 / prior-quarter S&M spend. > 0.75 → keep investing in sales.
+- **Rule of 40**: revenue growth % + FCF margin % ≥ 40 (later stage).
+
+## Revenue Quality
+- **NRR (net revenue retention)**: > 110% B2B good, > 120% excellent.
+- **Gross margin**: SaaS benchmark 70–85%; services-heavy mix drags it.
+- **ARR vs. recognized revenue vs. billings**: never conflate (see SaaS rev rec).
+
+## Fundraise Planning Inputs
+- Months-to-milestone vs. runway: raise must cover milestone + 6-month buffer.
+- Dilution math: target 15–25% per priced round.
+- Bridge triggers: < 9 months runway without a started process = act now.
+
+## Reporting Cadence
+Monthly investor update: cash, net burn, runway, ARR, NRR, headcount vs. plan — consistency beats polish.

package/selected-skills/financeskills/skills/predictive-burn-rate/references/time-series-forecasting.md

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+# Time-Series Forecasting for Cash Burn
+
+## Method Ladder (use the simplest that fits)
+1. **Trailing average**: 3-month average net burn — baseline every model must beat.
+2. **Linear trend / Holt's exponential smoothing**: captures burn growth; Holt-Winters if seasonality (annual insurance, 13th-month payroll).
+3. **Driver-based decomposition** (preferred for runway): forecast components separately —
+   `Net burn = Payroll (headcount plan × loaded cost) + Contracted opex (schedule) + Variable opex (% of activity) − Collections (bookings × collection curve)`
+4. **ARIMA/SARIMA**: only with ≥ 24 months of clean history; rarely better than driver-based for startups.
+5. **Monte Carlo**: simulate collections timing, hiring slippage, FX; report runway as a distribution (P10/P50/P90), not a point.
+
+## Collections Curve
+Model receipts as a lagged distribution of invoicing: e.g., 20% month 0, 50% month 1, 25% month 2, 5% bad debt — fit from AR aging history. The curve, not revenue, drives cash.
+
+## Runway Mathematics
+- Simple: `Runway = Cash / trailing 3-mo net burn`.
+- Honest: project monthly cash to the month balance < safety floor (≥ 1 payroll cycle + statutory obligations), including known one-offs (tax payments, annual renewals, severance).
+- Growing burn: if burn grows g monthly, runway solves `Cash = Σ burn×(1+g)^t` — materially shorter than the simple division.
+
+## Discipline
+- Reforecast monthly; track forecast-vs-actual error (MAPE ≤ 10% is good for 3-month horizon).
+- Separate committed vs. discretionary spend so scenario levers are real.
+- Never net financing inflows into operating burn — report both.

package/selected-skills/financeskills/skills/product-profitability/EXAMPLE.md

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+# Worked Example - product-profitability
+
+## Ask
+
+> Our 'Premium' service has 80% gross margins but only 5% of our sales. Our 'Standard' service has 20% margins but 95% of sales. Should we shut down 'Standard'?
+
+## What a correct response contains
+
+Should perform a Contribution Margin analysis. Should warn against shutting down 'Standard' if it covers the majority of fixed overhead. Should discuss the impact of fixed cost re-allocation. Should provide a Product Profitability Dashboard.
+
+## File-driven variant
+
+With fixture(s) `evals/files/product_lines.csv`:
+
+> Build a product P&L from the attached file (evals/files/product_lines.csv): allocate the $900,000 shared cost pool by revenue, compute contribution margin and fully-loaded profit per product, and identify any product that is contribution-positive but fully-loaded negative.
+
+Expected: Alpha profit $1,860,000; Beta $630,000; Gamma $60,000 - Gamma is contribution-positive ($150,000) but fully-loaded negative.
+
+## Compute, don't estimate
+
+All figures above come from [`scripts/calculate.py`](./scripts/calculate.py) - import its functions rather than doing arithmetic in prose.

package/selected-skills/financeskills/skills/product-profitability/SKILL.md

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+---
+name: product-profitability
+description: When the user wants to break down revenue and costs by specific products, services, or segments. Also use when the user mentions "unit economics," "product-line P&L," "contribution margin," "SKU profitability," "segment reporting," or "cost allocation."
+metadata:
+  version: 1.0.0
+---
+
+# Product & Service Profitability Analysis
+
+You are a Management Accountant. Your goal is to identify which products or services are driving the most value and which are eroding margins.
+
+## Initial Assessment
+
+1. **Segment Definition**
+   - Are we analyzing by SKU, Product Category, or Service Line?
+   - What is the time period?
+
+2. **Data Availability**
+   - Can we track revenue directly to the segment?
+   - Can we track variable costs (COGS) directly?
+   - What is the total pool of indirect/fixed costs?
+
+---
+
+## Profitability Framework
+
+### Priority Order
+1. **Direct Revenue Attribution** (Matching sales to products).
+2. **Variable Cost Assignment** (Calculating the Contribution Margin).
+3. **Fixed Cost Allocation** (Determining the "Fully Burdened" margin).
+4. **Variance Analysis** (Comparing actual product performance to budget).
+5. **Strategic Recommendations** (e.g., "Kill product X," "Scale product Y").
+
+---
+
+## Technical Analysis Steps
+
+### 1. Contribution Margin Analysis
+`CM = Revenue - Variable Costs`
+- This shows how much each product contributes to covering fixed overhead.
+
+### 2. Allocation Methodologies
+- **Direct**: Costs mapped 1:1.
+- **Activity-Based (ABC)**: Costs allocated based on drivers (e.g., machine hours, customer service tickets).
+- **Step-Down**: Allocating support department costs to production departments.
+
+### 3. Mix Variance
+- Analyze if a shift in the *proportion* of products sold (Product Mix) is impacting the overall gross margin.
+
+---
+
+## Output Format
+
+### Product Profitability Dashboard
+
+**The Stack Rank**
+- Table of products ranked by Gross Margin and Contribution Margin %.
+
+**Segment P&L**
+- Columns for each product line showing Revenue, COGS, Direct OpEx, and Net Contribution.
+
+**Optimization Plan**
+- Identified "Laggards" (low margin/low volume).
+- Identified "Stars" (high margin/high volume).
+- Pricing or cost-cutting recommendations.
+
+---
+
+## Scripts
+- [calculate.py](./scripts/calculate.py): Deterministic functions for this skill's core computations. Run `python3 scripts/calculate.py` to self-test; import the functions instead of doing mental math.
+
+---
+
+## References
+- [Cost Allocation Methods](./references/allocation-logic.md): ABC vs. Traditional.
+- [Unit Economics Guide](./references/unit-economics.md): CAC, LTV, and Payback.
+
+---
+
+## Related Skills
+- **financial-analysis**: For the macro-level margin analysis.
+- **budget-forecast**: For setting product-level targets.
+- **statement-preparation**: For ensuring segment reporting matches the consolidated P&L.

package/selected-skills/financeskills/skills/product-profitability/references/allocation-logic.md

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+# Cost Allocation Logic
+
+## Allocation Hierarchy (best to worst)
+1. **Direct tracing**: costs unambiguously caused by the product (materials, dedicated labor, product-specific licenses) — assign, don't allocate.
+2. **Causal drivers (ABC)**: allocate pooled costs on the activity that drives them.
+3. **Ability-to-bear (revenue %)**: last resort — it distorts decisions because high-revenue products subsidize the rest.
+
+## Activity-Based Costing in Five Steps
+1. Identify activities (order processing, machine setup, QA inspection, customer support, deployment).
+2. Pool costs per activity from the GL (salaries, systems, facilities split by time/space study).
+3. Pick a driver per pool: setups → # of setups; support → tickets; warehousing → pallet-days; payment processing → transaction count.
+4. Rate = pool cost / driver volume.
+5. Charge products: usage × rate.
+
+## Driver Selection Tests
+- Causality: does more of the driver actually cause more cost?
+- Measurability: is driver data captured reliably without manual heroics?
+- Materiality: pools < 5% of overhead can use a simple driver; don't gold-plate.
+
+## What NOT to Allocate for Decisions
+- Sunk costs and corporate overhead that won't change with the decision (CEO salary doesn't vanish if you kill SKU #47).
+- Use a contribution hierarchy: revenue → variable costs → **CM1** → directly attributable fixed → **CM2 (product profit)** → allocated shared costs → **CM3 (fully loaded, for pricing floors only)**.
+- Kill/keep decisions: CM2 + avoidable cost test. Pricing floors: CM3. Never reverse them.
+
+## Common Distortions
+- Volume-based allocation of batch costs (penalizes high-volume products, hides the cost of complexity).
+- Peanut-butter IT/facilities spreading on headcount when usage is wildly uneven.
+- Ignoring cost-to-serve variation by CHANNEL and CUSTOMER, not just product.

package/selected-skills/financeskills/skills/product-profitability/references/unit-economics.md

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+# Unit Economics
+
+## Define the Unit First
+Per product sold, per order, per customer, per active user, per ride/delivery, per bbl, per policy. Mixed units = meaningless math. State the unit on every analysis.
+
+## The Core Ledger (per unit)
+```
+Average revenue per unit
+−  Variable COGS (materials, hosting, payment fees 1.5–3%, packaging)
+−  Variable fulfillment (shipping, delivery, support cost per order)
+=  Contribution margin 1 (CM1)
+−  Direct marketing cost per acquired unit (CAC where unit = customer)
+=  CM2 / fully variable profit
+```
+CM1 must be positive at maturity or growth multiplies losses. CM2 payback determines cash needs.
+
+## Customer-Level Economics
+- `LTV = CM1 per period × expected periods` (or `CM1 × 1/churn` for constant churn; discount if horizon > 2 yrs).
+- LTV:CAC ≥ 3 healthy; CAC payback < 12–18 months B2B, < 6–12 B2C.
+- Cohort discipline: compute by acquisition cohort and channel — blended numbers hide dying channels.
+
+## Margin Bridge Habit
+When unit margin moves, decompose: price effect + mix effect + input cost effect + efficiency effect. (Pairs with variance-analysis skill.)
+
+## Traps
+1. Counting gross revenue when you're an agent (take-rate businesses: use net revenue).
+2. Excluding payment fees, refunds, fraud, and free-tier costs from "variable".
+3. LTV on projected retention with < 12 months of data.
+4. Improving averages that mask a barbell (great cohort + terrible cohort): always plot distributions.
+5. Fixed-cost amortization smuggled into unit costs to make a price look justified.

package/selected-skills/financeskills/skills/retirement-planning/EXAMPLE.md

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+# Worked Example - retirement-planning
+
+## Ask
+
+> I'm 35 years old, have $45,000 saved for retirement, and contribute $500/month. I want to retire at 65 with $1.5M. My expected return is 7% per year. Am I on track? If not, how much more do I need to contribute?
+
+## What a correct response contains
+
+Should project the future value of $45,000 + $500/month at 7% over 30 years. Should compare the projection to the $1.5M target. Should calculate the additional monthly contribution required to reach $1.5M. Should mention the 4% rule and the annual withdrawal $1.5M would support.
+
+## File-driven variant
+
+With fixture `evals/files/retirement_inputs.csv`:
+
+> From the attached inputs (evals/files/retirement_inputs.csv), project the retirement nest egg, determine whether the target is met, and calculate the required monthly contribution to close any gap.
+
+Expected: Projected nest egg $975,228; gap $524,772; need to contribute approximately $930/month to hit $1.5M target; 4% withdrawal from $1.5M supports $60,000/year.
+
+## Compute, don't estimate
+
+All figures above come from [`scripts/calculate.py`](./scripts/calculate.py) — import its functions rather than doing arithmetic in prose.

package/selected-skills/financeskills/skills/retirement-planning/SKILL.md

@@ -0,0 +1,98 @@
+---
+name: retirement-planning
+description: When the user wants to plan for retirement, calculate how much to save, project a retirement nest egg, determine a safe withdrawal amount, or figure out whether they are on track. Also use when the user mentions "401k," "pension," "retirement age," "how much do I need to retire," "compound interest," "FIRE," or "retire early."
+metadata:
+  version: 1.0.0
+---
+
+# Retirement Planning
+
+You are a Retirement Planning Specialist. Your goal is to help the user understand exactly where they stand, how much they need, and what specific actions will close any gap.
+
+## Initial Assessment
+
+1. **Current Position**
+   - Current retirement savings balance.
+   - Monthly contribution amount and any employer match.
+   - Current age and target retirement age.
+
+2. **Target**
+   - Desired annual retirement income (in today's dollars).
+   - Expected Social Security / state pension / annuity income.
+   - Expected retirement duration (target age to life expectancy).
+
+3. **Assumptions**
+   - Expected annual investment return (pre-retirement).
+   - Expected annual return in retirement (typically more conservative).
+   - Inflation rate assumption (default 2.5%).
+
+---
+
+## Planning Framework
+
+### Priority Order
+1. **Nest Egg Target** — calculate the lump sum needed at retirement.
+2. **Current Trajectory** — project current savings + contributions forward.
+3. **Gap Analysis** — identify the funding shortfall.
+4. **Contribution Strategy** — determine the monthly contribution to close the gap.
+5. **Withdrawal Planning** — model sustainable withdrawals in retirement.
+
+### The 4% Rule (Safe Withdrawal Rate)
+A portfolio should sustain 30 years of withdrawals if the initial withdrawal rate is 4% or less.
+`Nest Egg Target = Annual Retirement Spending / 0.04`
+
+Example: $60,000/year needed → nest egg of $1,500,000.
+
+---
+
+## Technical Steps
+
+### 1. Future Value of Current Savings
+`FV = P × (1 + r/12)^(n×12) + PMT × [((1 + r/12)^(n×12) − 1) / (r/12)]`
+where P = current balance, PMT = monthly contribution, r = annual return, n = years to retirement.
+
+### 2. Months to Reach Target
+Iterate monthly until accumulated balance ≥ nest egg target.
+
+### 3. Required Monthly Contribution
+Solve for PMT given a known FV target, P, r, and n.
+
+### 4. Inflation Adjustment
+Express all targets in real (inflation-adjusted) terms or gross up the nominal target.
+
+---
+
+## Output Format
+
+**Retirement Snapshot**
+- Target nest egg, projected nest egg, gap.
+- Years remaining, required monthly contribution to close gap.
+
+**Projection Chart Data**
+- Year-by-year balance from today to retirement.
+
+**Withdrawal Plan**
+- Annual and monthly safe withdrawal amount.
+- Portfolio depletion year under different return scenarios.
+
+**Sensitivity Table**
+- Impact of retiring 2 years later / earlier.
+- Impact of +1% higher or lower return assumption.
+
+---
+
+## Scripts
+- [calculate.py](./scripts/calculate.py): Deterministic functions for this skill's core computations. Run `python3 scripts/calculate.py` to self-test; import the functions instead of doing mental math.
+
+---
+
+## References
+- [Retirement Planning Fundamentals](./references/retirement-fundamentals.md): Nest egg targets, safe withdrawal rate research, and contribution limits.
+- [Compound Growth Guide](./references/compound-growth.md): Time-value-of-money concepts and the power of early contributions.
+
+---
+
+## Related Skills
+- **personal-budgeting**: Identify how much of the monthly budget can be allocated to retirement contributions.
+- **tax-efficient-investing**: Maximise after-tax growth by choosing the right account type (traditional vs. Roth vs. taxable).
+- **investment-analysis**: Evaluate the asset allocation strategy inside the retirement portfolio.

package/selected-skills/financeskills/skills/retirement-planning/references/compound-growth.md

@@ -0,0 +1,38 @@
+# Compound Growth Guide
+
+## The Time Value of Money
+
+A dollar today is worth more than a dollar in the future because it can be invested and earn a return.
+
+**Future Value formula (lump sum):**
+`FV = PV × (1 + r)^n`
+
+**Future Value with regular contributions (monthly):**
+`FV = PV × (1 + r/12)^(12n) + PMT × [((1 + r/12)^(12n) − 1) / (r/12)]`
+
+where `r` = annual rate, `n` = years, `PMT` = monthly contribution.
+
+## Why Starting Early Matters
+
+| Start Age | Monthly Contribution | Balance at 65 (7%) |
+|---|---|---|
+| 25 | $300 | $906,000 |
+| 35 | $300 | $436,000 |
+| 45 | $300 | $189,000 |
+
+Starting at 25 vs. 35 yields more than double the outcome with the same contribution.
+
+## The Cost of Stopping Contributions
+
+Stopping contributions for just 5 years in your 30s costs more in lost growth than the contributions themselves, because early dollars have the longest compounding runway.
+
+## Inflation Adjustment
+
+To express a future sum in today's purchasing power:
+`Real FV = Nominal FV / (1 + inflation_rate)^n`
+
+At 2.5% inflation, $1M in 30 years has the purchasing power of ~$477,000 today.
+
+## Sources
+- Bogle, J. C. (2017). *The Little Book of Common Sense Investing*. Wiley.
+- Bernstein, W. (2010). *The Investor's Manifesto*. Wiley.

package/selected-skills/financeskills/skills/retirement-planning/references/retirement-fundamentals.md

@@ -0,0 +1,29 @@
+# Retirement Planning Fundamentals
+
+## How Much Do You Need? — The Nest Egg Target
+
+The most widely cited rule is the **4% Safe Withdrawal Rate** (Bengen, 1994):
+`Nest Egg = Desired Annual Income / 0.04`
+
+A $1.5M portfolio supports $60,000/year for at least 30 years with high historical probability (>95% success across US market history).
+
+**Conservative alternative**: Use 3.5% for a 40+ year horizon (FIRE movement standard).
+
+## Contribution Limits (US, 2024)
+| Account | Limit | Catch-Up (50+) |
+|---|---|---|
+| 401(k) / 403(b) | $23,000 | +$7,500 |
+| IRA (Traditional or Roth) | $7,000 | +$1,000 |
+| HSA (individual) | $4,150 | +$1,000 |
+| HSA (family) | $8,300 | +$1,000 |
+
+## Employer Match — Never Leave It on the Table
+An employer 4% match on a $80,000 salary = $3,200 free per year. This is a 100% instant return; always contribute at least enough to capture the full match.
+
+## Rule of 72
+A quick mental check: `Years to Double = 72 / Annual Return %`
+At 7% return, money doubles every ~10.3 years.
+
+## Sources
+- Bengen, W. P. (1994). Determining withdrawal rates using historical data. *Journal of Financial Planning*.
+- Pfau, W. (2018). *How Much Can I Spend in Retirement?* Retirement Researcher Media.

package/selected-skills/financeskills/skills/revenue-recognition/EXAMPLE.md

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+# Worked Example - revenue-recognition
+
+## Ask
+
+> We sold a $12k annual subscription today. The customer paid upfront. How much revenue do we recognize this month?
+
+## What a correct response contains
+
+Should identify this as a multi-period performance obligation. Should calculate the monthly revenue ($1k). Should explain the deferral of the remaining $11k as Unearned Revenue. Should provide a Revenue Recognition Memo structure.
+
+## File-driven variant
+
+With fixture(s) `evals/files/contracts.csv`:
+
+> Contract C-101 in the attached file (evals/files/contracts.csv) was signed on 1 January for a fixed price of $100,000. Support and implementation are both delivered evenly over 12 months. Allocate the transaction price to each performance obligation using relative SSP per IFRS 15 / ASC 606, then compute revenue recognised by 31 March (3 months in). Show the allocation table and journal-ready amounts.
+
+Expected: Relative-SSP allocation: licence $60,000, support $24,000, implementation $16,000 (sums to $100,000). By 31 March: licence in full plus 3/12 of support and implementation = $70,000 recognised; $30,000 remains as contract liability.
+
+## Compute, don't estimate
+
+All figures above come from [`scripts/calculate.py`](./scripts/calculate.py) - import its functions rather than doing arithmetic in prose.

package/selected-skills/financeskills/skills/revenue-recognition/SKILL.md

@@ -0,0 +1,86 @@
+---
+name: revenue-recognition
+description: When the user wants to apply complex revenue recognition rules (IFRS 15 / ASC 606). Also use when the user mentions "deferred revenue," "performance obligations," "contract assets," "multi-element arrangements," "SaaS revenue rules," or "unearned revenue."
+metadata:
+  version: 1.0.0
+---
+
+# Revenue Recognition (IFRS 15 / ASC 606)
+
+You are a Technical Accounting Manager. Your goal is to ensure that revenue is recognized in a way that depicts the transfer of promised goods or services to customers.
+
+## Initial Assessment
+
+1. **Contract Analysis**
+   - Is there a formal contract?
+   - What are the distinct performance obligations? (e.g., Software license vs. Implementation vs. Support).
+
+2. **Transaction Price**
+   - Is there variable consideration (discounts, rebates, bonuses)?
+   - Is there a significant financing component?
+
+3. **Transfer of Control**
+   - Is revenue recognized "Point in Time" or "Over Time"?
+
+---
+
+## Revenue Framework (The 5-Step Model)
+
+### Priority Order
+1. **Identify the Contract** (Existence and enforceability).
+2. **Identify Performance Obligations** (Are they distinct?).
+3. **Determine Transaction Price** (Expected value or most likely amount).
+4. **Allocate Transaction Price** (Based on Standalone Selling Price - SSP).
+5. **Recognize Revenue** (As control transfers).
+
+---
+
+## Technical Accounting Steps
+
+### 1. Standalone Selling Price (SSP) Allocation
+- If a bundle is sold for $1,000, but the individual components (License + Support) are worth $800 and $400, allocate the $1,000 proportionally.
+
+### 2. Contract Assets vs. Receivables
+- Recognize a contract asset when the right to payment is conditional on something other than the passage of time.
+
+### 3. Deferred Revenue (Unearned)
+- Map the schedule for recognizing revenue over the life of a subscription or service period.
+
+---
+
+## Output Format
+
+### Revenue Recognition Memo
+
+**The Contract**
+- Summary of performance obligations identified.
+- Transaction price determination.
+
+**Allocation Table**
+- Breakdown of how the price is spread across obligations.
+
+**Journal Entries**
+- Specific entries for Initial Recognition, Deferral, and monthly Amortization.
+
+---
+
+## Scripts
+- [calculate.py](./scripts/calculate.py): Deterministic functions for this skill's core computations. Run `python3 scripts/calculate.py` to self-test; import the functions instead of doing mental math.
+
+---
+
+## References
+- [IFRS 15 Summary](./references/ifrs15-guide.md): The official 5-step model details.
+- [SaaS Revenue Standards](./references/saas-rev-rec.md): Specifics for subscription businesses.
+
+---
+
+## Assets
+- [allocation-workpaper-template.md](./assets/allocation-workpaper-template.md): 5-step IFRS 15 / ASC 606 workpaper.
+
+---
+
+## Related Skills
+- **statement-preparation**: For accurately reporting revenue and deferred revenue.
+- **audit-checklist**: For auditing the revenue cycle.
+- **financial-analysis**: For analyzing the quality of earnings.