@v587d/capital-generation 2.7.6 → 2.7.8

package/selected-skills/financeskills/skills/financial-analysis/assets/analysis-memo-template.md

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+# Financial Analysis Memo
+
+**Entity:** {entity} | **Period:** {period} | **Prepared:** {date} | **Currency:** {ccy}
+
+## Executive Summary
+{2-4 sentences: overall health, the one number that matters most, the key risk.}
+
+## Ratio Dashboard
+| Category | Metric | {prior} | {current} | Trend | Benchmark |
+|---|---|---|---|---|---|
+| Liquidity | Current ratio | | | | |
+| Liquidity | Quick ratio | | | | |
+| Profitability | Gross margin | | | | |
+| Profitability | Net margin | | | | |
+| Profitability | ROE (avg equity) | | | | |
+| Efficiency | DSO / DIO / DPO | | | | |
+| Leverage | Debt / Equity | | | | |
+| Coverage | Interest coverage | | | | |
+
+## Key Findings
+1. {Finding - quantified, with cause}
+2. {Finding}
+
+## Red Flags
+- {Anything deteriorating faster than revenue, covenant proximity, quality-of-earnings issues}
+
+## Recommended Actions
+1. {Action - owner - timeframe}
+
+---
+*Calculations verified by code ({script reference}). AI-prepared analysis - review by a qualified professional before relying on it.*

package/selected-skills/financeskills/skills/financial-analysis/references/accounting-standards.md

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+# Accounting Standards: IFRS vs US GAAP
+
+Detailed comparison of the two primary financial reporting frameworks. Understanding these differences is critical for accurate financial analysis and normalization.
+
+## 🏛️ Framework Overview
+
+### IFRS (International Financial Reporting Standards)
+- **Governance**: International Accounting Standards Board (IASB).
+- **Usage**: Used in 140+ countries (EU, Canada, Australia, most of Africa).
+- **Philosophy**: Principles-based. Focuses on the "substance over form" of a transaction.
+
+### US GAAP (Generally Accepted Accounting Principles)
+- **Governance**: Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB).
+- **Usage**: Mandatory for all US public companies.
+- **Philosophy**: Rules-based. Highly detailed with specific guidance for various industries.
+
+---
+
+## 🔍 Key Differences
+
+### 1. Inventory Valuation
+- **IFRS**: LIFO (Last-In-First-Out) is prohibited. Only FIFO and Weighted Average are allowed.
+- **GAAP**: LIFO is allowed and commonly used for tax benefits.
+- **Impact**: Using LIFO in a period of rising prices results in higher COGS and lower net income compared to FIFO.
+
+### 2. Revaluation of Assets
+- **IFRS**: Allows the revaluation of assets (PPE, Intangibles) to fair value if it can be measured reliably.
+- **GAAP**: Revaluation is generally prohibited (assets are carried at historical cost).
+
+### 3. Development Costs
+- **IFRS**: Development costs can be capitalized if certain criteria are met (future economic benefit).
+- **GAAP**: Development costs are generally expensed as incurred (except for certain software development costs).
+
+### 4. Statement of Cash Flows
+- **Interest Paid**: 
+  - IFRS: Can be Operating or Financing.
+  - GAAP: Must be Operating.
+- **Dividends Received**:
+  - IFRS: Can be Operating or Investing.
+  - GAAP: Must be Operating.
+
+## 🔗 Sources
+- [IASB Official Standards](https://www.ifrs.org/issued-standards/)
+- [FASB Official Guidance](https://www.fasb.org/standards/)
+- [PwC: IFRS and US GAAP: Similarities and Differences](https://www.pwc.com/us/en/services/audit-assurance/accounting-advisory/ifrs-us-gaap-comparison.html)

package/selected-skills/financeskills/skills/financial-analysis/references/ratio-definitions.md

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+# Financial Ratio Definitions
+
+### Liquidity Ratios
+- **Current Ratio**: Current Assets / Current Liabilities. Measures ability to pay short-term obligations.
+- **Quick Ratio**: (Current Assets - Inventory) / Current Liabilities. A more stringent liquidity test.
+
+### Profitability Ratios
+- **Gross Margin**: (Revenue - COGS) / Revenue. Percentage of revenue exceeding cost of goods sold.
+- **Net Margin**: Net Income / Revenue. The "bottom line" profitability.
+- **ROE (Return on Equity)**: Net Income / Shareholders' Equity. How effectively management uses equity to generate profit.
+
+### Solvency Ratios
+- **Debt-to-Equity**: Total Liabilities / Shareholders' Equity. The company's financial leverage.
+- **Interest Coverage**: EBIT / Interest Expense. Ability to pay interest on outstanding debt.

package/selected-skills/financeskills/skills/fixed-asset-accounting/EXAMPLE.md

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+# Worked Example - fixed-asset-accounting
+
+## Ask
+
+> We bought a generator: invoice 12,000,000 NGN, delivery 400,000, installation 600,000, staff training 250,000, 10-year life, 1,000,000 residual, straight-line. What do we capitalize and what's annual depreciation?
+
+## What a correct response contains
+
+Capitalize 13,000,000 (invoice + delivery + installation); expense training 250,000. Annual depreciation = (13,000,000 - 1,000,000)/10 = 1,200,000.
+
+## File-driven variant
+
+With fixture(s) `evals/files/asset_register.xlsx`:
+
+> Compute year-1 depreciation for each asset in the attached register (evals/files/asset_register.xlsx) using the stated method, and total the charge. The mould has a 200,000-unit life and produced 35,000 units this year.
+
+Expected: Press $20,000 (SL); trucks $40,000 (DDB y1); mould $17,500 (UoP); total $77,500.
+
+## Compute, don't estimate
+
+All figures above come from [`scripts/calculate.py`](./scripts/calculate.py) - import its functions rather than doing arithmetic in prose.

package/selected-skills/financeskills/skills/fixed-asset-accounting/SKILL.md

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+---
+name: fixed-asset-accounting
+description: When the user wants to account for property, plant and equipment or intangibles — capitalization, depreciation, disposals, impairment, or the fixed asset register. Also use when the user mentions "capitalize vs expense," "useful life," "componentization," "asset disposal," "impairment test," "CIP/WIP transfer," or "fixed asset rollforward."
+metadata:
+  version: 1.0.0
+---
+
+# Fixed Asset Accounting (IAS 16 / IAS 36 / ASC 360)
+
+You are a Fixed Assets Accountant. Your goal is to keep the asset register accurate: capitalize what qualifies, depreciate it sensibly, catch impairments, and account for disposals cleanly.
+
+## Initial Assessment
+
+1. **Transaction Type**
+   - Acquisition, self-construction (CIP), subsequent expenditure, disposal/retirement, impairment indicator, or register maintenance.
+
+2. **Policy Inputs**
+   - Capitalization threshold, useful life table by asset class, residual value conventions, depreciation methods, componentization policy.
+
+---
+
+## Accounting Framework
+
+### Capitalization Decision
+Capitalize: purchase price + directly attributable costs to bring the asset to working condition (delivery, installation, testing net of sample proceeds rules, professional fees, irrecoverable taxes) + initial restoration estimate (aro-computation). Borrowing costs on qualifying assets (IAS 23). 
+Expense: training, relocation, admin overhead, abnormal waste, repairs/maintenance. Subsequent expenditure: capitalize only if it enhances future benefits beyond original standard (capacity, life, quality) — otherwise repair expense.
+
+### Depreciation
+- Methods: straight-line `(cost − residual)/life`, reducing balance, units of production (E&P, mining equipment).
+- Start when AVAILABLE for use (not when used); stop at derecognition or held-for-sale.
+- **Componentization (IAS 16)**: depreciate significant parts separately (aircraft engines vs. frame; plant turnarounds; building roof/lifts/shell).
+- Annual review of life, residual, method = change in ESTIMATE (prospective, never restate).
+
+### Impairment (IAS 36)
+Indicators (external: market decline, rates, obsolescence; internal: damage, idle, restructuring, underperformance) → test: `Recoverable amount = max(fair value − costs of disposal, value in use)`; impair carrying amount down to it. CGU level if no standalone cash flows. Reversals allowed under IFRS (not goodwill, not US GAAP).
+
+### Disposal
+`Gain/(loss) = proceeds − carrying amount`; derecognize cost AND accumulated depreciation. Held-for-sale (IFRS 5): stop depreciating, measure at lower of carrying and FV−CTS.
+
+---
+
+## Technical Analysis Steps
+
+1. **Register integrity**: rollforward (opening + additions − disposals − depreciation ± impairment ± transfers = closing) must tie to GL control accounts; CIP aging review for stalled projects that should be tested for impairment.
+2. **Compute with code**: depreciation schedules, gain/loss on disposal, impairment math.
+3. **Physical verification cycle**: existence testing rotation, ghost-asset write-off protocol.
+
+---
+
+## Output Format
+
+### Fixed Asset Memo / Schedule
+
+**Conclusion**: capitalize/expense decision or disposal/impairment outcome with standard reference.
+
+**Computation**: depreciation schedule or gain/loss calculation.
+
+**Entries**: full journal entries (journal-entry format).
+
+**Register Impact**: rollforward line movement.
+
+---
+
+## Scripts
+- [calculate.py](./scripts/calculate.py): Deterministic functions for this skill's core computations. Run `python3 scripts/calculate.py` to self-test; import the functions instead of doing mental math.
+
+---
+
+## References
+- [Useful Life Benchmarks](./references/useful-life-guide.md): Typical lives, componentization and policy guidance by asset class.
+
+---
+
+## Related Skills
+- **aro-computation**: Restoration cost capitalized into the asset.
+- **journal-entry**: For the entries this skill produces.
+- **deferred-tax**: Tax-vs-book depreciation creates temporary differences.
+- **lease-accounting**: ROU assets follow similar depreciation logic.

package/selected-skills/financeskills/skills/fixed-asset-accounting/references/useful-life-guide.md

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+# Useful Life Benchmarks and Policy Guidance
+
+## Typical Useful Lives (calibrate to entity experience — these are starting points)
+| Asset Class | Life (years) | Method Notes |
+|---|---|---|
+| Buildings — shell | 30–50 | Straight-line; componentize |
+| Buildings — roof, HVAC, lifts | 10–20 | Separate components |
+| Leasehold improvements | Shorter of life and lease term | Include reasonably certain renewals only |
+| Plant & machinery (general) | 8–15 | SL or UoP if usage-driven wear |
+| Oil & gas production facilities | Field life | Units of production on proved developed reserves |
+| Pipelines | 20–40 | SL; integrity-driven component reviews |
+| Motor vehicles | 4–6 | Residual values meaningful — set and review |
+| IT hardware | 3–5 | Zero residual typical |
+| Servers/network infra | 4–6 | Hyperscalers have stretched to 6 — follow entity evidence |
+| Office furniture & fittings | 5–10 | — |
+| Software (purchased/internally developed) | 3–7 | Amortize from go-live; cloud config costs usually EXPENSED (SaaS arrangements — IFRIC agenda decision) |
+
+## Componentization Triggers
+Component is "significant" if its cost is a meaningful share (rule of thumb ≥ 10–20%) of the asset AND its life differs materially. Classic mandatory cases: aircraft (frame/engines/interiors), vessels (hull/dry-docking), refineries and plants (turnaround/overhaul costs capitalized as a component, depreciated to next turnaround).
+
+## Residual Values
+Use only with credible disposal markets (vehicles, aircraft, some plant). Review annually; residual ≥ carrying amount → depreciation stops. Document the evidence (auction data, dealer quotes).
+
+## Estimate Change Mechanics (prospective)
+New annual depreciation = (carrying amount − revised residual) / remaining revised life, from the date of change. No restatement, but disclose if material.
+
+## Register Hygiene Rules
+- CIP > 12 months without spend movement → investigate, impairment-test, or write off.
+- Fully depreciated assets still in use → flag for life-policy recalibration (chronic pattern = lives too short, distorting margins).
+- Ghost assets: physical verification on rotation (high-value annually, full population over 2–3 years); write-offs need approval and root-cause (theft? records?).

package/selected-skills/financeskills/skills/forensic-accounting/EXAMPLE.md

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+# Worked Example - forensic-accounting
+
+## Ask
+
+> Our petty cash is missing $5,000 over the last 3 months. Only the office manager has the key. Can you investigate?
+
+## What a correct response contains
+
+Should recognize this as a potential asset misappropriation investigation. Should ask for the petty cash log and bank withdrawal records. Should recommend a reconciliation of physical cash vs log. Should suggest checking for 'top-up' patterns. Should provide a structured Forensic Report structure with Evidence Chain and Control Recommendations.
+
+## File-driven variant
+
+With fixture(s) `evals/files/disbursements.csv`:
+
+> Run a Benford first-digit analysis on the attached disbursements (evals/files/disbursements.csv) - overall AND segmented by the 'segment' column. Report chi-square per segment against the 15.507 critical value and identify which population deviates.
+
+Expected: Operations chi2 16 (conforms); Procurement-VendorX chi2 544 (strong deviation - first digits cluster 4-8); overall chi2 217. Flags VendorX for follow-up, noting deviation is an indicator not proof.
+
+## Compute, don't estimate
+
+All figures above come from [`scripts/calculate.py`](./scripts/calculate.py) - import its functions rather than doing arithmetic in prose.

package/selected-skills/financeskills/skills/forensic-accounting/SKILL.md

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+---
+name: forensic-accounting
+description: When the user wants to investigate financial discrepancies, fraud, or hidden assets. Also use when the user mentions "suspicious transactions," "missing funds," "embezzlement check," "laundering detection," "shell company audit," "whistleblower claims," or "something doesn't add up." Use this for litigation support or high-stakes internal investigations.
+metadata:
+  version: 1.1.0
+---
+
+# Forensic Accounting
+
+You are a Forensic Accountant and Certified Fraud Examiner (CFE). Your goal is to follow the money, identify illegal activities, and prepare evidence for legal proceedings.
+
+## Initial Assessment
+
+1. **Investigation Context**
+   - Is this for a legal case (litigation)?
+   - What is the specific suspicion (e.g., asset misappropriation, financial statement fraud)?
+   - What is the time period in question?
+
+2. **Access & Confidentiality**
+   - Do we have access to bank statements, emails, and ERP logs?
+   - Who is authorized to see the findings? (Privileged vs. Non-privileged).
+
+---
+
+## Investigation Framework
+
+### Evidence Detection Limitation
+
+**No retrieval path in this plugin — delegated or otherwise — reaches secure banking portals, private ERP environments or any corporate system.** Ledger detail, bank statements and vendor masters have to arrive from the user: pasted figures, an export the user supplies, or a filed document the host retrieval channel can read.
+Forensic evidence must be provided as static files (CSV exports, PDF statements) rather than assumed reachable. Do not claim to "verify" transactions without raw source data.
+
+### Priority Order
+1. **Source of Funds** (Where did the money come from?)
+2. **Use of Funds** (Where did the money go?)
+3. **Internal Control Gaps** (How was the fraud possible?)
+4. **Intent Detection** (Was it an error or deliberate?)
+
+---
+
+## Technical Investigation Steps
+
+### 1. Benford's Law Analysis
+- Run a statistical analysis on the leading digits of transaction amounts.
+- Significant deviations from Benford's distribution indicate potentially manufactured numbers.
+
+### 2. Vendor Link Analysis
+- Match employee addresses/phone numbers with vendor databases.
+- Flag "Ghost Vendors" or shell companies owned by insiders.
+
+### 3. Round-Trip Tracking
+- Identify transactions that leave the entity and return via a series of intermediaries.
+- Check for "Lazy Round-Tripping" (identical amounts/dates).
+
+### 4. Lifestyle Audit
+- (If external data is available) Compare known employee compensation with visible assets or spending.
+
+---
+
+## Output Format
+
+### Forensic Report Structure
+
+**Executive Summary**
+- Summary of the alleged scheme.
+- Quantified loss (Total amount of fraud detected).
+
+**Evidence Chain**
+- **The Scheme**: Step-by-step description of how the fraud occurred.
+- **Key Suspects**: List of entities/individuals involved.
+- **Evidence Logs**: Table of specific transactions with reference IDs.
+
+**Control Recommendations**
+- Specific hardening steps to prevent recurrence.
+
+---
+
+## Scripts
+- [calculate.py](./scripts/calculate.py): Deterministic functions for this skill's core computations, kept as reviewable material. This plugin's research role has no shell and the scripts are not part of the installed package, so nothing here runs them: work the expected digit frequencies and thresholds from [Benford's Law Guide](./references/benfords-law.md), show the test and its sample size in the answer, and hand anything that needs real compute to the delegated `data_junior`.
+
+---
+
+## References
+- [Benford's Law Guide](./references/benfords-law.md): Statistical analysis of leading digits.
+- [Fraud Triangle](./references/fraud-triangle.md): Understanding Pressure, Opportunity, and Rationalization.
+
+---
+
+## Related Skills
+- **audit-checklist**: For baseline control reviews.
+- **financial-analysis**: For detecting macro-level swings caused by fraud.
+- **risk-assessment**: For evaluating the impact of the detected fraud.

package/selected-skills/financeskills/skills/forensic-accounting/references/benfords-law.md

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+# Benford’s Law: Statistical Fraud Detection
+
+A mathematical tool used by forensic accountants to detect manufactured or manipulated numbers in financial datasets.
+
+## 🏛️ The Concept
+Benford's Law (the First-Digit Law) states that in many naturally occurring collections of numbers, the leading significant digit is likely to be small.
+- The digit **1** appears as the first digit about **30%** of the time.
+- The digit **9** appears as the first digit less than **5%** of the time.
+
+## 🔍 When to Apply
+- **Accounts Payable**: Large datasets of vendor payments.
+- **Inventory Counts**: Checking for "plug numbers."
+- **Sales Data**: Identifying fabricated invoices.
+
+**Warning**: Benford's Law does not work on datasets with assigned numbers (e.g., zip codes, phone numbers) or datasets with a narrow range (e.g., heights of humans).
+
+---
+
+## 🛠️ Interpretation
+If a dataset significantly deviates from the Benford curve (e.g., an unusual spike in numbers starting with **7**), it indicates that the numbers may have been invented by a human, as humans tend to distribute digits uniformly when guessing.
+
+## 🔗 Sources
+- [Journal of Accountancy: Benford's Law and Fraud Detection](https://www.journalofaccountancy.com/issues/2017/apr/benfords-law-fraud-detection.html)
+- [ACFE: Using Benford's Law in Fraud Examination](https://www.acfe.com/fraud-resources/benfords-law)

package/selected-skills/financeskills/skills/forensic-accounting/references/fraud-triangle.md

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+# The Fraud Triangle: Why People Steal
+
+A model for explaining the factors that cause someone to commit occupational fraud.
+
+## 🏛️ The Three Elements
+
+### 1. Pressure (Incentive)
+The person has a "non-sharable" financial problem.
+- **Examples**: High personal debt, gambling addiction, or pressure to meet aggressive earnings targets.
+
+### 2. Opportunity
+The person sees a way to abuse their position of trust with low perceived risk of detection.
+- **Examples**: Weak internal controls, lack of segregation of duties, or management override.
+
+### 3. Rationalization
+The person justifies the act to themselves to maintain their self-image as a "good person."
+- **Examples**: "I'm only borrowing the money," "I'm underpaid," or "Everyone else is doing it."
+
+---
+
+## 🔍 Mitigation Strategy
+Management can mostly control **Opportunity** by hardening internal controls. They can influence **Pressure** via fair compensation and **Rationalization** by fostering an ethical corporate culture.
+
+## 🔗 Sources
+- [ACFE: The Fraud Triangle](https://www.acfe.com/fraud-resources/fraud-triangle)
+- [AICPA: The Fraud Triangle](https://www.aicpa.org/resources/article/the-fraud-triangle)

package/selected-skills/financeskills/skills/insurance-reserving/EXAMPLE.md

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+# Worked Example - insurance-reserving
+
+## Ask
+
+> Our paid losses for Accident Year 2023 are $500k. Historically, this line develops to 2.0x its current value by year 5. What's our IBNR?
+
+## What a correct response contains
+
+Should calculate Projected Ultimate Loss ($500k * 2.0 = $1M). Should identify IBNR as the difference between Ultimate and Paid ($1M - $500k = $500k). Should discuss the loss ratio. Should provide an Insurance Reserve Report.
+
+## File-driven variant
+
+With fixture(s) `evals/files/paid_triangle.csv`:
+
+> Apply the chain-ladder method to the attached cumulative paid triangle (evals/files/paid_triangle.csv): compute volume-weighted development factors, ultimate losses per accident year, and total IBNR reserve.
+
+Expected: LDFs [1.5, 1.2, 1.1]; ultimates ['8,316,000', '9,108,000', '10,098,000', '10,890,000']; IBNR $8,666,000.
+
+## Compute, don't estimate
+
+All figures above come from [`scripts/calculate.py`](./scripts/calculate.py) - import its functions rather than doing arithmetic in prose.

package/selected-skills/financeskills/skills/insurance-reserving/SKILL.md

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+---
+name: insurance-reserving
+description: When the user wants to calculate insurance loss reserves or analyze insurance financial health. Also use when the user mentions "IBNR," "loss development triangles," "actuarial reserving," "claims reserves," "combined ratio," or "loss ratio."
+metadata:
+  version: 1.0.0
+---
+
+# Insurance Loss Reserving
+
+You are an Insurance Actuarial Analyst. Your goal is to ensure the insurer has set aside enough capital to cover future claims arising from past events.
+
+## Initial Assessment
+
+1. **Line of Business**
+   - Short-tail (e.g., Auto, Home) vs. Long-tail (e.g., Workers Comp, Liability).
+
+2. **Claim Data**
+   - Do we have the **Loss Triangle**? (Paid or Incurred losses by accident year and development year).
+
+3. **Loss Ratio History**
+   - What is the historical "Ultimate Loss Ratio" for this line?
+
+---
+
+## Reserving Framework
+
+### Priority Order
+1. **Data Organization** (Building the loss development triangles).
+2. **Age-to-Age Factor Calculation** (Determining how claims grow over time).
+3. **Link Ratio Selection** (Choosing the most representative factors).
+4. **IBNR Calculation** (Incurred But Not Reported).
+5. **Combined Ratio Analysis** (Losses + Expenses / Premiums).
+
+---
+
+## Technical Actuarial Steps
+
+### 1. Chain Ladder Method
+- Use historical loss development factors to project current losses to their "Ultimate" value.
+
+### 2. Bornhuetter-Ferguson (BF) Method
+- Combine the Chain Ladder with an initial expected loss ratio (useful for immature years).
+
+### 3. IBNR Determination
+`IBNR = Projected Ultimate Loss - Incurred Loss to Date`
+
+---
+
+## Output Format
+
+### Insurance Reserve Report
+
+**Key Ratios**
+- **Loss Ratio**: (Claims / Premiums).
+- **Expense Ratio**: (Operating Costs / Premiums).
+- **Combined Ratio**: (The target should be < 100%).
+
+**The Reserve**
+- **Case Reserves**: $X.
+- **IBNR**: $Y.
+- **Total Loss Reserve**: $Z.
+
+**Triangle Visualization**
+- Description of the loss development trend (e.g., "Deterioration in Accident Year 2022").
+
+---
+
+## Scripts
+- [calculate.py](./scripts/calculate.py): Deterministic functions for this skill's core computations, kept as reviewable material. This plugin's research role has no shell and the scripts are not part of the installed package, so nothing here runs them: work the factor selections from [Chain Ladder Basics](./references/actuarial-methods.md) and the ratio definitions in [Combined Ratio Guide](./references/insurance-metrics.md), show each step in the answer, and hand anything that needs real compute to the delegated `data_junior`.
+
+---
+
+## References
+- [Chain Ladder Basics](./references/actuarial-methods.md): Math behind loss development.
+- [Combined Ratio Guide](./references/insurance-metrics.md): Evaluating underwriting profitability.
+
+---
+
+## Related Skills
+- **risk-assessment**: For identifying the underlying underwriting risks.
+- **financial-statement-prep**: For reporting the massive loss reserve liability.
+- **ecl-computation**: For the credit risk on the insurer's investment portfolio.

package/selected-skills/financeskills/skills/insurance-reserving/references/actuarial-methods.md

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+# Actuarial Reserving Methods
+
+## Chain Ladder (development triangle)
+1. Build cumulative paid (or incurred) loss triangle by accident year × development period.
+2. Age-to-age factors: `f(d) = Σ C(i,d+1) / Σ C(i,d)` (volume-weighted; exclude distorted years with judgment, documented).
+3. Cumulative development factor (CDF) to ultimate = product of remaining factors × tail factor.
+4. `Ultimate = latest cumulative × CDF`; `IBNR = Ultimate − reported incurred`; reserve = ultimate − paid.
+Weakness: leveraged by latest diagonal — bad for immature/volatile years.
+
+## Bornhuetter-Ferguson (the stabilizer)
+`Ultimate = Reported + Expected ultimate × (1 − 1/CDF)`
+Blends an a priori loss ratio (pricing or historical, adjusted) with actual emergence. Use for recent accident years, low-credibility lines, and after large one-off events.
+
+## Expected Loss Ratio Method
+`Ultimate = Premium × a priori loss ratio` — for brand-new lines with no credible development data.
+
+## Frequency-Severity & Cape Cod
+- Freq-sev: project claim counts and average severities separately — better insight into drivers (inflation vs. claim volume).
+- Cape Cod: like BF but derives the a priori loss ratio from the data itself, weighted by used-up premium.
+
+## Method Selection Matrix
+| Accident year maturity | Preferred |
+|---|---|
+| Mature (CDF < 1.1) | Chain ladder |
+| Mid (CDF 1.1–2.0) | Weighted CL/BF |
+| Green (CDF > 2.0) | BF or ELR |
+
+## Diagnostics Before Signing Off
+- Calendar-year diagonals for inflation/process change distortions.
+- Paid vs. incurred method divergence — investigate case reserve adequacy drift.
+- Actual vs. expected emergence since last review.
+- Tail factor sensitivity (long-tail liability: ±0.02 on tail swings reserves materially).
+- IFRS 17: add risk adjustment + discounting (locked-in vs. current rates per measurement model); reserve ranges, not points.

package/selected-skills/financeskills/skills/insurance-reserving/references/insurance-metrics.md

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+# Insurance Financial Metrics
+
+## Underwriting Ratios
+- **Loss ratio** = Incurred losses / Earned premium. Include LAE/claims handling (be explicit which).
+- **Expense ratio** = UW expenses / Written premium (trade basis) or earned (statutory basis — state which).
+- **Combined ratio** = loss + expense. < 100% = underwriting profit. 95% is strong for P&C; > 105% needs investment income to survive.
+- **Operating ratio** = combined − investment income ratio.
+
+## Reserve Health Indicators
+- **Reserve-to-premium ratio** trend by line: shrinking ratio in a growing long-tail book = likely under-reserving.
+- **Paid-to-incurred ratio**: rising = reserves running off true; spiking = possible case reserve weakening.
+- **Survival ratio** (reserves / avg annual paid): for latent exposures (asbestos-style), benchmark vs. peers.
+- **One-year reserve development / opening reserves**: persistent favorable development > 5% = padding; persistent adverse = deficiency. Track 5 years.
+
+## Premium Metrics
+- GWP vs. NWP (after reinsurance) vs. earned; unearned premium reserve roll.
+- Rate change vs. loss trend: margin expands only if rate > trend.
+
+## Solvency / Capital
+- Solvency II SCR coverage ≥ 100% (comfort > 150%); NAIC RBC ratio ≥ 200% of ACL avoids action levels; Nigeria: NAICOM minimum capital + solvency margin per Insurance Act.
+- Premium-to-surplus ≤ 2–3x (P&C heuristic); reserves-to-surplus by line tail length.
+
+## IFRS 17 Lens
+- CSM balance and release pattern = future profit emergence.
+- Loss component on onerous contracts hits P&L immediately — watch cohort-level onerous classifications.
+- Risk adjustment confidence level disclosure: compare across peers (65th–85th percentile typical).

package/selected-skills/financeskills/skills/intercompany-accounting/EXAMPLE.md

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+# Worked Example - intercompany-accounting
+
+## Ask
+
+> Parent shows due-from Sub A of 125M; Sub A shows due-to Parent of 117M. Walk me through resolving the 8M difference.
+
+## What a correct response contains
+
+Apply the hierarchy: check in-transit items around cut-off, FX rate differences (different sources/dates), missing bookings on one side, then pricing disputes. Fix entity books before consolidation; never eliminate a mismatch.
+
+## File-driven variant
+
+With fixture(s) `evals/files/ic_receivables_parent.csv`, `evals/files/ic_payables_subs.csv`:
+
+> Match the attached intercompany balances (evals/files/ic_receivables_parent.csv vs evals/files/ic_payables_subs.csv) and identify mismatches. Separately, the parent sold inventory to SubB for $300,000 (cost $200,000) and SubB still holds 40%: compute the unrealized profit to eliminate and draft the elimination entry, proving it balances.
+
+Expected: SubB mismatch $20,000 (cash/goods in transit to investigate); SubC and SubD agree. URP $40,000; elimination: Dr IC Revenue 300,000 / Cr IC COGS 260,000 / Cr Inventory 40,000.
+
+## Compute, don't estimate
+
+All figures above come from [`scripts/calculate.py`](./scripts/calculate.py) - import its functions rather than doing arithmetic in prose.