@v587d/capital-generation 2.7.2 → 2.7.3
This diff represents the content of publicly available package versions that have been released to one of the supported registries. The information contained in this diff is provided for informational purposes only and reflects changes between package versions as they appear in their respective public registries.
- package/CHANGELOG.md +47 -0
- package/README.md +7 -6
- package/THIRD_PARTY_NOTICES.md +65 -26
- package/capital-config/client.js +2 -2
- package/capital-config/package.json +1 -1
- package/capital-watchlist/package.json +1 -1
- package/chart-ui/package.json +1 -1
- package/lib/web-retriever/local-fetch.d.ts +1 -1
- package/lib/web-retriever/local-fetch.js +1 -1
- package/lib/web-retriever/wind-client.d.ts +1 -1
- package/lib/web-retriever/wind-client.js +1 -1
- package/package.json +2 -1
- package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/UPSTREAM.md +9 -0
- package/selected-skills/catalog.js +177 -0
- package/selected-skills/china-stock-research-skills/UPSTREAM.md +2 -1
- package/selected-skills/investment-skills/UPSTREAM.md +2 -1
- package/selected-skills/peter-lynch-skill/UPSTREAM.md +4 -3
- package/selected-skills/trading-skills/LICENSE +21 -0
- package/selected-skills/trading-skills/UPSTREAM.md +111 -0
- package/selected-skills/trading-skills/skills/catalyst-map/SKILL.md +119 -0
- package/selected-skills/trading-skills/skills/catalyst-map/references/catalyst-framework.md +68 -0
- package/selected-skills/trading-skills/skills/earnings-preview/SKILL.md +124 -0
- package/selected-skills/trading-skills/skills/earnings-preview/references/data-providers.md +26 -0
- package/selected-skills/trading-skills/skills/earnings-preview/references/providers/fmp.md +49 -0
- package/selected-skills/trading-skills/skills/earnings-preview/references/providers/polygon.md +45 -0
- package/selected-skills/trading-skills/skills/earnings-preview/references/providers/tradingeconomics.md +49 -0
- package/selected-skills/trading-skills/skills/earnings-preview/references/relevance-ranking.md +24 -0
- package/selected-skills/trading-skills/skills/earnings-trade-prep/SKILL.md +134 -0
- package/selected-skills/trading-skills/skills/earnings-trade-prep/references/workflow-framework.md +65 -0
- package/selected-skills/trading-skills/skills/evidence-gap-check/SKILL.md +120 -0
- package/selected-skills/trading-skills/skills/evidence-gap-check/references/gap-framework.md +66 -0
- package/selected-skills/trading-skills/skills/execution-plan-check/SKILL.md +121 -0
- package/selected-skills/trading-skills/skills/execution-plan-check/references/execution-checklist.md +70 -0
- package/selected-skills/trading-skills/skills/journal-pattern-analyzer/SKILL.md +120 -0
- package/selected-skills/trading-skills/skills/journal-pattern-analyzer/references/calculation-helpers.md +16 -0
- package/selected-skills/trading-skills/skills/journal-pattern-analyzer/references/pattern-framework.md +74 -0
- package/selected-skills/trading-skills/skills/macro-event-analysis/SKILL.md +122 -0
- package/selected-skills/trading-skills/skills/macro-event-analysis/references/data-providers.md +23 -0
- package/selected-skills/trading-skills/skills/macro-event-analysis/references/interpretation-guide.md +22 -0
- package/selected-skills/trading-skills/skills/macro-event-analysis/references/providers/fmp.md +28 -0
- package/selected-skills/trading-skills/skills/macro-event-analysis/references/providers/tradingeconomics.md +40 -0
- package/selected-skills/trading-skills/skills/market-regime-analysis/SKILL.md +117 -0
- package/selected-skills/trading-skills/skills/market-regime-analysis/references/data-providers.md +26 -0
- package/selected-skills/trading-skills/skills/market-regime-analysis/references/providers/fmp.md +46 -0
- package/selected-skills/trading-skills/skills/market-regime-analysis/references/providers/polygon.md +36 -0
- package/selected-skills/trading-skills/skills/market-regime-analysis/references/providers/tradingeconomics.md +46 -0
- package/selected-skills/trading-skills/skills/market-regime-analysis/references/regime-framework.md +23 -0
- package/selected-skills/trading-skills/skills/portfolio-concentration/SKILL.md +119 -0
- package/selected-skills/trading-skills/skills/portfolio-concentration/references/concentration-framework.md +72 -0
- package/selected-skills/trading-skills/skills/portfolio-risk-review/SKILL.md +126 -0
- package/selected-skills/trading-skills/skills/portfolio-risk-review/references/workflow-framework.md +57 -0
- package/selected-skills/trading-skills/skills/position-management/SKILL.md +120 -0
- package/selected-skills/trading-skills/skills/position-management/references/management-framework.md +70 -0
- package/selected-skills/trading-skills/skills/position-sizing/SKILL.md +83 -0
- package/selected-skills/trading-skills/skills/position-sizing/assets/trade-plan-template.md +15 -0
- package/selected-skills/trading-skills/skills/position-sizing/references/calculation-helpers.md +13 -0
- package/selected-skills/trading-skills/skills/position-sizing/references/methodology.md +28 -0
- package/selected-skills/trading-skills/skills/post-trade-debrief/SKILL.md +99 -0
- package/selected-skills/trading-skills/skills/post-trade-debrief/references/workflow-framework.md +51 -0
- package/selected-skills/trading-skills/skills/post-trade-review/SKILL.md +82 -0
- package/selected-skills/trading-skills/skills/post-trade-review/references/review-rubric.md +34 -0
- package/selected-skills/trading-skills/skills/pre-trade-check/SKILL.md +136 -0
- package/selected-skills/trading-skills/skills/pre-trade-check/references/workflow-framework.md +61 -0
- package/selected-skills/trading-skills/skills/risk-reward-sanity-check/SKILL.md +81 -0
- package/selected-skills/trading-skills/skills/risk-reward-sanity-check/references/calculation-helpers.md +14 -0
- package/selected-skills/trading-skills/skills/risk-reward-sanity-check/references/failure-modes.md +9 -0
- package/selected-skills/trading-skills/skills/thesis-validation/SKILL.md +123 -0
- package/selected-skills/trading-skills/skills/thesis-validation/references/thesis-checklist.md +56 -0
- package/selected-skills/trading-skills/skills/watchlist-review/SKILL.md +119 -0
- package/selected-skills/trading-skills/skills/watchlist-review/references/review-framework.md +57 -0
- package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/ADDING-NEW-SKILLS.md +0 -546
- package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/CHANGELOG.md +0 -373
- package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/CI-CD-GUIDE.md +0 -432
- package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/CLAUDE.md +0 -148
- package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/CONTRIBUTING.md +0 -291
- package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/DEPLOYMENTS.md +0 -321
- package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/FAQ.md +0 -509
- package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/GEMINI.md +0 -419
- package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/PLATFORM-COMPATIBILITY.md +0 -529
- package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/README-claude-code.md +0 -435
- package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/README-cursor.md +0 -475
- package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/README-gemini.md +0 -532
- package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/README-ollama.md +0 -106
- package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/README-zh-TW.md +0 -461
- package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/README.md +0 -311
- package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/RELEASE-QUICK-REFERENCE.md +0 -230
- package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/RELEASE_NOTES.md +0 -121
- package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/SECURITY.md +0 -232
- package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/TODO.md +0 -28
- package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/package.json +0 -64
- package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/README.md +0 -119
- package/selected-skills/china-stock-research-skills/.github/ISSUE_TEMPLATE/bug_report.md +0 -35
- package/selected-skills/china-stock-research-skills/.github/ISSUE_TEMPLATE/skill_request.md +0 -28
- package/selected-skills/china-stock-research-skills/.github/PULL_REQUEST_TEMPLATE.md +0 -15
- package/selected-skills/china-stock-research-skills/CHANGELOG.md +0 -59
- package/selected-skills/china-stock-research-skills/CONTRIBUTING.md +0 -121
- package/selected-skills/china-stock-research-skills/GITHUB_PUBLISHING.md +0 -259
- package/selected-skills/china-stock-research-skills/INSTALL.md +0 -151
- package/selected-skills/china-stock-research-skills/PUBLISH_CHECKLIST.md +0 -165
- package/selected-skills/china-stock-research-skills/README.en.md +0 -209
- package/selected-skills/china-stock-research-skills/README.md +0 -209
- package/selected-skills/china-stock-research-skills/RELEASE_ASSETS.md +0 -222
- package/selected-skills/china-stock-research-skills/ROADMAP.md +0 -45
- package/selected-skills/china-stock-research-skills/SKILLS.md +0 -85
- package/selected-skills/china-stock-research-skills/examples/full-report-flow.md +0 -20
- package/selected-skills/china-stock-research-skills/examples/module-select-cases.md +0 -26
- package/selected-skills/china-stock-research-skills/examples/quickstart-prompts.md +0 -25
- package/selected-skills/investment-skills/.github/workflows/validate.yml +0 -25
- package/selected-skills/investment-skills/.tbd/config.yml +0 -107
- package/selected-skills/investment-skills/README.md +0 -253
- package/selected-skills/investment-skills/docs/development.md +0 -37
- package/selected-skills/investment-skills/docs/roadmap.md +0 -25
- package/selected-skills/peter-lynch-skill/README.md +0 -305
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---
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name: macro-event-analysis
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description: Prepare for upcoming macro catalysts by identifying the events that matter, mapping the likely transmission channels, and surfacing timing risk for the user's markets or positions.
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---
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# Macro Event Analysis
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Use this skill when the user needs a practical read on upcoming macro event risk before holding positions, increasing size, or planning entries around catalysts.
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This skill will not:
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- predict the exact price reaction to a release
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- treat every calendar entry as decision-relevant
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- substitute macro theater for position-specific planning
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## Role
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Act like a macro risk analyst preparing a trader for event risk. Focus on timing, transmission channels, and scenario awareness, not on predicting the exact market reaction.
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## When to use it
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Use it when the user wants to:
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- understand the next 24 hours to two weeks of macro event risk
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- filter a long calendar into the few releases that really matter
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- map event risk to rates, FX, index futures, commodities, or sector leadership
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- decide whether holding through a catalyst is sensible or whether the calendar argues for caution
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## Inputs and context
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Ask for:
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- the market or exposure that matters: US equities, rates, FX, energy, Europe, and so on
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- the time window: today, next 48 hours, next week
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- any specific countries, central banks, or releases the user cares about
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- whether the user is planning entries, holding existing risk, or reviewing a macro-heavy week
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- current positioning context
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- specific holdings or watchlist names
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- events the user already knows are important
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Use the user's materials first: pasted event lists, screenshots, platform notes, transcripts, watchlists, or provider details already mentioned in the conversation.
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## If critical data is missing
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If the user already gave enough event information to analyze, do not fetch anything.
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If the timing or event slate is still incomplete:
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- check whether the conversation already points to a supported provider or includes usable access details
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- if the user already indicated `FMP` or `TradingEconomics`, use [references/providers/fmp.md](references/providers/fmp.md) or [references/providers/tradingeconomics.md](references/providers/tradingeconomics.md) directly
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- otherwise consult [references/data-providers.md](references/data-providers.md) and ask which supported provider they want to use
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- once the missing event details are gathered, continue the analysis and disclose the source used
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## Analysis process
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1. Build the relevant event slate for the requested window.
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2. Rank the events by likely decision impact, not by calendar length.
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3. Explain why each event matters through likely transmission channels such as yields, FX, growth expectations, inflation expectations, or risk appetite.
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5. Separate high-visibility events from lower-signal filler.
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6. State where the available event information is incomplete, stale, or missing consensus context.
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7. Translate the event slate into practical preparation questions: what should the user avoid assuming, monitor closely, or plan around?
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Use [references/interpretation-guide.md](references/interpretation-guide.md) when you need a reminder to emphasize event risk over prediction.
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## Core Assessment Framework
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Rank each event against four anchors before calling it important:
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- `Market Sensitivity`: does the user's market historically react to this release or central-bank signal. Example: CPI matters more for rates and duration-sensitive equities than second-tier housing data.
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- `Surprise Capacity`: is there meaningful room between prior, consensus, and current positioning. Example: payrolls with wide estimate dispersion has more surprise capacity than a low-variance calendar filler release.
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- `Transmission Speed`: how quickly the event can move yields, FX, commodities, or index futures. Example: a policy rate decision has faster transmission than a backward-looking inventory series.
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- `Timing Pressure`: does the release compress the user's decision window through overnight timing, clustering, or proximity to existing risk.
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Use the anchors to sort events into:
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- `primary`: directly relevant, high transmission, and able to change decision quality now
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- `secondary`: worth monitoring, but less likely to dominate positioning
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- `background`: context only unless the user's book is unusually sensitive
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## Evidence That Would Invalidate This Analysis
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- the event timing changes materially or the release is revised, delayed, or cancelled
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- the consensus or prior values that anchored the importance ranking turn out to be stale or missing
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- another event overtakes the stated catalyst by moving yields, FX, or risk appetite more decisively
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- the user's actual exposure changes, making the current transmission map less relevant
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- market pricing has already absorbed the catalyst so completely that the expected sensitivity is no longer plausible
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## Output structure
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1. `Event Slate`
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2. `Core Assessment Framework`
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3. `Transmission Channels`
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4. `Preparation Brief`
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5. `Evidence That Would Invalidate This Analysis`
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6. `Source And Caveats`
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Always return:
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- a prioritized event slate for the requested window
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- why each event matters for the user's market or exposure
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- the main transmission channels to watch
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- timing notes, including clustered or overnight risk
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- a short preparation brief: what to monitor, what to avoid assuming, and where caution is warranted
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- explicit source, freshness, and caveats when provider-based data is used
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## Best practices
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- do not claim that a release guarantees direction
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- do not bury missing consensus or stale timestamps
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- distinguish event importance from certainty
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- keep the output tied to the user's actual markets and holding period
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## Usage examples
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- "Use `macro-event-analysis` for the next 48 hours. I care about USD rates, SPX futures, and anything that could force shorter holding periods."
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- "Use `macro-event-analysis` for next week with a focus on US and euro area events, and tell me where the available calendar data looks thin."
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package/selected-skills/trading-skills/skills/macro-event-analysis/references/data-providers.md
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# Data Providers
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Use this only if the user did not already provide enough event information.
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Supported providers:
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- `FMP`: economic release calendar with timing and basic consensus fields through `/stable/economic-calendar`
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- `TradingEconomics`: macro event schedule and release context through `/calendar/...`
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If the user already named one of these providers or already shared usable access details, use that provider path directly.
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Otherwise ask: "Which provider do you want to use for the missing macro event data: FMP or TradingEconomics?"
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- start with `FMP` when the user needs a quick event slate by date window and country
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- use `TradingEconomics` when the user needs indicator-specific history, country filtering, or source-heavy calendar context
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- if one provider lacks forecast, prior, or timing detail for a critical event, say so and ask whether to supplement with the other supported provider
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Provider notes:
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- [FMP](providers/fmp.md)
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- [TradingEconomics](providers/tradingeconomics.md)
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# Interpretation Guide
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Focus on event risk, not prediction.
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## What to highlight
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- high-impact releases
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- clustered events that compress decision time
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- events likely to affect rates, FX, index futures, or sector leadership
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- missing consensus or previous values that reduce context quality
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## What not to claim
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- that an event will move markets in a specific direction
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- that the provider has full global coverage
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- that stale timestamps are harmless
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## Reporting guidance
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- Put source and freshness near the top.
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- Distinguish scheduled events from released events.
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- If timestamps or importance fields look incomplete, say so explicitly.
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package/selected-skills/trading-skills/skills/macro-event-analysis/references/providers/fmp.md
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# FMP
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Use the official economic calendar endpoint for the specific window you need:
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```bash
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curl "https://financialmodelingprep.com/stable/economic-calendar?from=2026-03-06&to=2026-03-13&country=US&apikey=<FMP_API_KEY>"
|
|
9
|
+
```
|
|
10
|
+
|
|
11
|
+
Pull only the fields you need for the analysis:
|
|
12
|
+
|
|
13
|
+
- `date`
|
|
14
|
+
- `country`
|
|
15
|
+
- `event`
|
|
16
|
+
- `impact`
|
|
17
|
+
- `previous`
|
|
18
|
+
- `estimate`
|
|
19
|
+
- `actual`
|
|
20
|
+
- `lastUpdated`
|
|
21
|
+
|
|
22
|
+
Filter to the user’s actual window and countries before writing the analysis.
|
|
23
|
+
|
|
24
|
+
After collecting the missing facts, return to the macro analysis. Disclose that `FMP` supplied the event schedule.
|
|
25
|
+
|
|
26
|
+
Official docs:
|
|
27
|
+
|
|
28
|
+
- [FMP economic calendar API](https://site.financialmodelingprep.com/developer/docs/stable/economics-calendar)
|
|
@@ -0,0 +1,40 @@
|
|
|
1
|
+
# TradingEconomics
|
|
2
|
+
|
|
3
|
+
Use this path only when the user already indicated `TradingEconomics` or chose it from the supported provider list.
|
|
4
|
+
|
|
5
|
+
Use the smallest calendar request that fills the missing event facts.
|
|
6
|
+
|
|
7
|
+
## Best endpoint for a country-level upcoming slate
|
|
8
|
+
|
|
9
|
+
```bash
|
|
10
|
+
curl "https://api.tradingeconomics.com/calendar/country/united%20states?c=<TE_API_KEY>&f=json"
|
|
11
|
+
```
|
|
12
|
+
|
|
13
|
+
Use this when the user wants the next relevant releases for one country and you do not need a narrow indicator filter yet.
|
|
14
|
+
|
|
15
|
+
## Best endpoint for a specific indicator and date range
|
|
16
|
+
|
|
17
|
+
```bash
|
|
18
|
+
curl "https://api.tradingeconomics.com/calendar/country/united%20states/indicator/nonfarm%20payrolls/2026-03-01/2026-03-31?c=<TE_API_KEY>&f=json"
|
|
19
|
+
```
|
|
20
|
+
|
|
21
|
+
Use this when the user already identified the key release and you only need the dated event history or forward window for that indicator.
|
|
22
|
+
|
|
23
|
+
Pull only the fields you need:
|
|
24
|
+
|
|
25
|
+
- `Date`
|
|
26
|
+
- `Country`
|
|
27
|
+
- `Event`
|
|
28
|
+
- `Actual`
|
|
29
|
+
- `Previous`
|
|
30
|
+
- `Forecast`
|
|
31
|
+
- `Importance`
|
|
32
|
+
- `LastUpdate`
|
|
33
|
+
- `Source`
|
|
34
|
+
|
|
35
|
+
Keep the result analytical. Do not mirror the whole calendar back to the user unless they asked for that explicitly.
|
|
36
|
+
|
|
37
|
+
Official docs:
|
|
38
|
+
|
|
39
|
+
- [TradingEconomics economic calendar by country docs](https://docs.tradingeconomics.com/economic_calendar/country/)
|
|
40
|
+
- [TradingEconomics economic calendar point-in-time docs](https://docs.tradingeconomics.com/economic_calendar/point-in-time/)
|
|
@@ -0,0 +1,117 @@
|
|
|
1
|
+
---
|
|
2
|
+
name: market-regime-analysis
|
|
3
|
+
description: Analyze current market context through trend, volatility, breadth, and event backdrop so the user can choose tactics that fit the environment without relying on black-box regime claims.
|
|
4
|
+
---
|
|
5
|
+
|
|
6
|
+
# Market Regime Analysis
|
|
7
|
+
|
|
8
|
+
Use this skill when you need a disciplined read on market context before selecting tactics, sizing, or holding period.
|
|
9
|
+
|
|
10
|
+
This skill will not:
|
|
11
|
+
|
|
12
|
+
- forecast market returns from a label
|
|
13
|
+
- assign fake confidence percentages to limited evidence
|
|
14
|
+
- replace instrument-specific trade planning or risk limits
|
|
15
|
+
|
|
16
|
+
## Role
|
|
17
|
+
|
|
18
|
+
Act like a market structure analyst. Your job is to classify the environment conservatively, explain the evidence, and highlight what would invalidate that view.
|
|
19
|
+
|
|
20
|
+
## When to use it
|
|
21
|
+
|
|
22
|
+
Use it when the user wants to:
|
|
23
|
+
|
|
24
|
+
- decide whether trend-following, mean reversion, or caution is the better default
|
|
25
|
+
- understand whether a market is healthy, fragile, defensive, or in transition
|
|
26
|
+
- adapt size and expectations to changing breadth or volatility
|
|
27
|
+
- pressure-test a market read before committing capital
|
|
28
|
+
|
|
29
|
+
## Inputs and context
|
|
30
|
+
|
|
31
|
+
Ask for observations about:
|
|
32
|
+
|
|
33
|
+
- trend
|
|
34
|
+
- volatility
|
|
35
|
+
- breadth or participation
|
|
36
|
+
- leadership quality or concentration
|
|
37
|
+
- liquidity and event backdrop
|
|
38
|
+
- relevant timeframe and market focus
|
|
39
|
+
|
|
40
|
+
If the user is vague, ask for the minimum evidence needed instead of forcing a fake label.
|
|
41
|
+
|
|
42
|
+
Use the user's materials first: market notes, watchlists, screenshots, chart observations, breadth notes, or any provider details already mentioned in the conversation.
|
|
43
|
+
|
|
44
|
+
## If critical data is missing
|
|
45
|
+
|
|
46
|
+
If the user already supplied enough evidence to classify the environment, do not fetch anything.
|
|
47
|
+
|
|
48
|
+
If trend, volatility, breadth, or event context is still too thin:
|
|
49
|
+
|
|
50
|
+
- check whether the user already named a supported provider or already shared usable access details
|
|
51
|
+
- if they already indicated `FMP`, `TradingEconomics`, or `Polygon`, use [references/providers/fmp.md](references/providers/fmp.md), [references/providers/tradingeconomics.md](references/providers/tradingeconomics.md), or [references/providers/polygon.md](references/providers/polygon.md) directly
|
|
52
|
+
- otherwise consult [references/data-providers.md](references/data-providers.md) and ask which supported provider they want to use
|
|
53
|
+
- once the missing context is gathered, continue the regime analysis and disclose the source used
|
|
54
|
+
|
|
55
|
+
## Analysis process
|
|
56
|
+
|
|
57
|
+
1. Assess trend, volatility, breadth, and event backdrop separately.
|
|
58
|
+
2. Look for agreement or conflict across those dimensions.
|
|
59
|
+
3. Classify the environment conservatively.
|
|
60
|
+
4. Explain which tactics fit the environment and which become fragile.
|
|
61
|
+
5. State what evidence would change the classification.
|
|
62
|
+
|
|
63
|
+
Use [references/regime-framework.md](references/regime-framework.md) if you need the default label set and interpretation guidance.
|
|
64
|
+
|
|
65
|
+
## Core Assessment Framework
|
|
66
|
+
|
|
67
|
+
Score the environment on four anchors before choosing a label:
|
|
68
|
+
|
|
69
|
+
- `Trend`: higher highs and higher lows on the user's timeframe, or repeated failure at support and resistance. Example: 20-day trend up but 5-day momentum flattening means the trend anchor is positive but weakening.
|
|
70
|
+
- `Volatility`: realized range and gap behavior relative to the recent norm. Example: daily ranges expanding from 1.1% to 2.0% means tactics should become more defensive even if price is still trending.
|
|
71
|
+
- `Breadth`: participation across sectors, index members, or the user's watchlist. Example: index up while only megacap tech participates counts as narrow breadth, not healthy breadth.
|
|
72
|
+
- `Event Backdrop`: whether macro releases, earnings clusters, or policy headlines can invalidate the read quickly. Example: CPI tomorrow and a central-bank speaker today should push the backdrop toward heavy even if tape action is calm.
|
|
73
|
+
|
|
74
|
+
Use these anchors to classify:
|
|
75
|
+
|
|
76
|
+
- `healthy trend`: trend positive, volatility contained or normal, breadth broad enough, event backdrop not immediately disruptive
|
|
77
|
+
- `fragile trend`: trend positive, but breadth narrow or volatility elevated
|
|
78
|
+
- `transition`: anchors conflict meaningfully and no single tactic deserves high conviction
|
|
79
|
+
- `defensive`: trend negative or unstable, volatility elevated, breadth weak, or event backdrop heavy enough to shrink decision time
|
|
80
|
+
|
|
81
|
+
## Evidence That Would Invalidate This Analysis
|
|
82
|
+
|
|
83
|
+
- the next session or two reverses the trend anchor with a decisive break of the key level the analysis relied on
|
|
84
|
+
- breadth expands or collapses enough to contradict the current participation read
|
|
85
|
+
- volatility contracts or explodes enough to make the current tactic set inappropriate
|
|
86
|
+
- a new macro or earnings event changes the backdrop from manageable to heavy, or the reverse
|
|
87
|
+
- the user's timeframe changes materially, because intraday and swing regime reads should not be treated as interchangeable
|
|
88
|
+
|
|
89
|
+
## Output structure
|
|
90
|
+
|
|
91
|
+
Prefer this output order:
|
|
92
|
+
|
|
93
|
+
1. `Regime Summary`
|
|
94
|
+
2. `Core Assessment Framework`
|
|
95
|
+
3. `Tactical Implications`
|
|
96
|
+
4. `Evidence That Would Invalidate This Analysis`
|
|
97
|
+
5. `Caveats`
|
|
98
|
+
|
|
99
|
+
Always include:
|
|
100
|
+
|
|
101
|
+
- regime classification in plain language
|
|
102
|
+
- key evidence used
|
|
103
|
+
- what weakens or invalidates the current read
|
|
104
|
+
- tactical implications for risk-taking, trade duration, and expectation-setting
|
|
105
|
+
|
|
106
|
+
Avoid fake certainty or theatrical confidence percentages.
|
|
107
|
+
|
|
108
|
+
## Best practices
|
|
109
|
+
|
|
110
|
+
- do not forecast returns from a single regime label
|
|
111
|
+
- do not turn limited evidence into precise confidence scores
|
|
112
|
+
- do not replace instrument-specific trade planning
|
|
113
|
+
|
|
114
|
+
## Usage examples
|
|
115
|
+
|
|
116
|
+
- "Use `market-regime-analysis` from these observations: uptrend intact, breadth narrowing, volatility elevated, CPI tomorrow."
|
|
117
|
+
- "Use `market-regime-analysis` on my notes from this week and tell me whether trend-following or mean reversion is the safer default."
|
package/selected-skills/trading-skills/skills/market-regime-analysis/references/data-providers.md
ADDED
|
@@ -0,0 +1,26 @@
|
|
|
1
|
+
# Data Providers
|
|
2
|
+
|
|
3
|
+
Use this only if the user did not already provide enough market context.
|
|
4
|
+
|
|
5
|
+
Supported providers:
|
|
6
|
+
|
|
7
|
+
- `FMP`: recent price action, benchmark index context, and event calendar context through quotes, light historical prices, and the economic calendar
|
|
8
|
+
- `TradingEconomics`: market history for benchmark symbols and optional economic calendar checks through `/markets/historical` and `/calendar/country/...`
|
|
9
|
+
- `Polygon`: strong default for recent price history and benchmark comparison when the user already uses Polygon market data
|
|
10
|
+
|
|
11
|
+
If the user already named one of these providers or already shared usable access details, use that provider path directly.
|
|
12
|
+
|
|
13
|
+
Otherwise ask: "Which provider do you want to use for the missing market context: FMP, TradingEconomics, or Polygon?"
|
|
14
|
+
|
|
15
|
+
Fallback strategy:
|
|
16
|
+
|
|
17
|
+
- start with `FMP` when you need one provider for price context plus a quick macro-event check
|
|
18
|
+
- use `TradingEconomics` when cross-checking market history with macro calendar pressure
|
|
19
|
+
- use `Polygon` when the user already uses Polygon and the missing context is recent price action or benchmark comparison
|
|
20
|
+
- if event-backdrop context is still missing after a `Polygon` query, say so and ask whether to supplement with `FMP` or `TradingEconomics`
|
|
21
|
+
|
|
22
|
+
Provider notes:
|
|
23
|
+
|
|
24
|
+
- [FMP](providers/fmp.md)
|
|
25
|
+
- [TradingEconomics](providers/tradingeconomics.md)
|
|
26
|
+
- [Polygon](providers/polygon.md)
|
package/selected-skills/trading-skills/skills/market-regime-analysis/references/providers/fmp.md
ADDED
|
@@ -0,0 +1,46 @@
|
|
|
1
|
+
# FMP
|
|
2
|
+
|
|
3
|
+
Use this path only when the user already indicated `FMP` or chose it from the supported provider list.
|
|
4
|
+
|
|
5
|
+
Use it to pull only the minimum price or event context needed for the regime read.
|
|
6
|
+
|
|
7
|
+
## Best endpoint for latest benchmark snapshot
|
|
8
|
+
|
|
9
|
+
Use the short quote endpoint for quick current context:
|
|
10
|
+
|
|
11
|
+
```bash
|
|
12
|
+
curl "https://financialmodelingprep.com/stable/quote-short?symbol=SPY&apikey=<FMP_API_KEY>"
|
|
13
|
+
```
|
|
14
|
+
|
|
15
|
+
This is useful when you only need the latest price, change, and volume snapshot.
|
|
16
|
+
|
|
17
|
+
## Best endpoint for recent trend
|
|
18
|
+
|
|
19
|
+
Use the light historical endpoint for a short lookback:
|
|
20
|
+
|
|
21
|
+
```bash
|
|
22
|
+
curl "https://financialmodelingprep.com/stable/historical-price-eod/light?symbol=SPY&from=2026-02-20&to=2026-03-06&apikey=<FMP_API_KEY>"
|
|
23
|
+
```
|
|
24
|
+
|
|
25
|
+
Repeat for other symbols only if needed, such as `QQQ`, `IWM`, or sector ETFs the user already cares about.
|
|
26
|
+
|
|
27
|
+
## Optional event-backdrop check
|
|
28
|
+
|
|
29
|
+
If the regime read also needs macro timing context, use:
|
|
30
|
+
|
|
31
|
+
```bash
|
|
32
|
+
curl "https://financialmodelingprep.com/stable/economic-calendar?from=2026-03-06&to=2026-03-13&country=US&apikey=<FMP_API_KEY>"
|
|
33
|
+
```
|
|
34
|
+
|
|
35
|
+
## How to use the result
|
|
36
|
+
|
|
37
|
+
- use quote data for the latest snapshot, not for forecasting
|
|
38
|
+
- use historical prices to judge trend quality and recent volatility
|
|
39
|
+
- use the calendar endpoint only if event risk is part of the missing context
|
|
40
|
+
- disclose that FMP supplied part of the market context
|
|
41
|
+
|
|
42
|
+
Official docs:
|
|
43
|
+
|
|
44
|
+
- [FMP quote short API](https://site.financialmodelingprep.com/developer/docs/stable/quote-short)
|
|
45
|
+
- [FMP historical price light API](https://site.financialmodelingprep.com/developer/docs/stable/historical-price-eod-light)
|
|
46
|
+
- [FMP economic calendar API](https://site.financialmodelingprep.com/developer/docs/stable/economics-calendar)
|
package/selected-skills/trading-skills/skills/market-regime-analysis/references/providers/polygon.md
ADDED
|
@@ -0,0 +1,36 @@
|
|
|
1
|
+
# Polygon
|
|
2
|
+
|
|
3
|
+
Use this path only when the user already indicated `Polygon` or chose it from the supported provider list.
|
|
4
|
+
|
|
5
|
+
Polygon is strongest here for recent price action and benchmark comparison. It does not replace macro calendar context.
|
|
6
|
+
|
|
7
|
+
## Best endpoint for recent benchmark history
|
|
8
|
+
|
|
9
|
+
Call the official aggregate bars endpoint:
|
|
10
|
+
|
|
11
|
+
```bash
|
|
12
|
+
curl "https://api.polygon.io/v2/aggs/ticker/SPY/range/1/day/2026-02-20/2026-03-06?adjusted=true&sort=asc&limit=500&apiKey=<POLYGON_API_KEY>"
|
|
13
|
+
```
|
|
14
|
+
|
|
15
|
+
Repeat for `QQQ`, `IWM`, or sector ETFs only if the breadth or leadership question actually requires them.
|
|
16
|
+
|
|
17
|
+
Pull only the fields you need:
|
|
18
|
+
|
|
19
|
+
- `ticker`
|
|
20
|
+
- `results[].t`
|
|
21
|
+
- `results[].o`
|
|
22
|
+
- `results[].h`
|
|
23
|
+
- `results[].l`
|
|
24
|
+
- `results[].c`
|
|
25
|
+
- `results[].v`
|
|
26
|
+
|
|
27
|
+
## How to use the result
|
|
28
|
+
|
|
29
|
+
- use the bar series to judge trend persistence, recent range expansion, and relative benchmark strength
|
|
30
|
+
- do not imply Polygon answered the macro-event question if the backdrop still depends on calendar risk
|
|
31
|
+
- if event timing still matters after the price check, ask whether to supplement with `FMP` or `TradingEconomics`
|
|
32
|
+
- disclose that Polygon supplied the market-price context
|
|
33
|
+
|
|
34
|
+
Official docs:
|
|
35
|
+
|
|
36
|
+
- [Polygon aggregate bars API](https://polygon.io/docs/rest/stocks/aggregates/custom-bars)
|
|
@@ -0,0 +1,46 @@
|
|
|
1
|
+
# TradingEconomics
|
|
2
|
+
|
|
3
|
+
Use this path only when the user already indicated `TradingEconomics` or chose it from the supported provider list.
|
|
4
|
+
|
|
5
|
+
Use it to pull only the minimum price or event context needed for the regime read.
|
|
6
|
+
|
|
7
|
+
## Best endpoint for recent market trend
|
|
8
|
+
|
|
9
|
+
Call the official markets historical endpoint with a short benchmark basket:
|
|
10
|
+
|
|
11
|
+
```bash
|
|
12
|
+
curl "https://api.tradingeconomics.com/markets/historical/spy:us,qqq:us,iwm:us?c=<TE_API_KEY>&d1=2026-02-20&d2=2026-03-06&f=json"
|
|
13
|
+
```
|
|
14
|
+
|
|
15
|
+
Use this when you need a quick read on trend, relative strength, or narrowing breadth across major US equity benchmarks.
|
|
16
|
+
|
|
17
|
+
Pull only the fields you need:
|
|
18
|
+
|
|
19
|
+
- `Symbol`
|
|
20
|
+
- `Date`
|
|
21
|
+
- `Open`
|
|
22
|
+
- `High`
|
|
23
|
+
- `Low`
|
|
24
|
+
- `Close`
|
|
25
|
+
|
|
26
|
+
## Optional event-backdrop check
|
|
27
|
+
|
|
28
|
+
If the regime read also needs macro timing context, use the economic calendar by country endpoint:
|
|
29
|
+
|
|
30
|
+
```bash
|
|
31
|
+
curl "https://api.tradingeconomics.com/calendar/country/united%20states?c=<TE_API_KEY>&f=json"
|
|
32
|
+
```
|
|
33
|
+
|
|
34
|
+
Use only the relevant upcoming events. Do not dump the entire calendar into the output.
|
|
35
|
+
|
|
36
|
+
## How to use the result
|
|
37
|
+
|
|
38
|
+
- use the market history to judge trend persistence, volatility, and leadership concentration
|
|
39
|
+
- use the calendar only to confirm whether event risk is quiet, normal, or heavy
|
|
40
|
+
- if breadth, liquidity, or cross-asset context is still incomplete, say so directly
|
|
41
|
+
- disclose that TradingEconomics supplied part of the market context
|
|
42
|
+
|
|
43
|
+
Official docs:
|
|
44
|
+
|
|
45
|
+
- [TradingEconomics markets historical docs](https://docs.tradingeconomics.com/markets/historical/)
|
|
46
|
+
- [TradingEconomics economic calendar by country docs](https://docs.tradingeconomics.com/economic_calendar/country/)
|
package/selected-skills/trading-skills/skills/market-regime-analysis/references/regime-framework.md
ADDED
|
@@ -0,0 +1,23 @@
|
|
|
1
|
+
# Regime Framework
|
|
2
|
+
|
|
3
|
+
The v1 framework uses four dimensions:
|
|
4
|
+
|
|
5
|
+
- trend
|
|
6
|
+
- volatility
|
|
7
|
+
- breadth
|
|
8
|
+
- event backdrop
|
|
9
|
+
|
|
10
|
+
## Example labels
|
|
11
|
+
|
|
12
|
+
- trending-risk-on
|
|
13
|
+
- trending-but-fragile
|
|
14
|
+
- range-bound
|
|
15
|
+
- defensive-risk-off
|
|
16
|
+
- transition
|
|
17
|
+
|
|
18
|
+
## Interpretation guidance
|
|
19
|
+
|
|
20
|
+
- Strong trend with healthy breadth and contained volatility supports trend-following tactics.
|
|
21
|
+
- Strong trend with narrow leadership or unstable volatility is weaker than it looks.
|
|
22
|
+
- Range conditions favor faster profit-taking and smaller expectations.
|
|
23
|
+
- Heavy event risk reduces confidence in any classification.
|
|
@@ -0,0 +1,119 @@
|
|
|
1
|
+
---
|
|
2
|
+
name: portfolio-concentration
|
|
3
|
+
description: Evaluate whether a portfolio, account, or planned position is too dependent on a small number of issuers, sectors, themes, or correlated exposures before the user adds or holds more risk.
|
|
4
|
+
---
|
|
5
|
+
|
|
6
|
+
# Portfolio Concentration
|
|
7
|
+
|
|
8
|
+
Use this skill before adding risk when the user needs to know whether a new or existing position would make the portfolio too dependent on a small set of holdings or shared drivers.
|
|
9
|
+
|
|
10
|
+
This skill will not:
|
|
11
|
+
|
|
12
|
+
- build a full strategic asset-allocation plan
|
|
13
|
+
- decide tax strategy for concentrated holdings
|
|
14
|
+
- replace entry, stop, target, or sizing decisions
|
|
15
|
+
|
|
16
|
+
## Role
|
|
17
|
+
|
|
18
|
+
Act like a conservative portfolio risk reviewer. Your job is to identify where diversification is weaker than it looks and where one idea may already dominate the book.
|
|
19
|
+
|
|
20
|
+
## When to use it
|
|
21
|
+
|
|
22
|
+
Use it when the user wants to:
|
|
23
|
+
|
|
24
|
+
- check whether a new trade would overconcentrate the portfolio
|
|
25
|
+
- identify hidden overlap across stocks, ETFs, sectors, themes, or employer stock
|
|
26
|
+
- understand whether the book is too dependent on one catalyst, factor, or industry
|
|
27
|
+
- decide whether the portfolio can absorb additional risk before moving to `position-sizing`
|
|
28
|
+
|
|
29
|
+
## Inputs and context
|
|
30
|
+
|
|
31
|
+
Ask for:
|
|
32
|
+
|
|
33
|
+
- current holdings with approximate weights, market values, or percentages
|
|
34
|
+
- whether the snapshot is the full portfolio, one account, or only the risk sleeve being reviewed
|
|
35
|
+
- any planned new position or add-on size
|
|
36
|
+
- whether any holding is employer stock, a narrow ETF, a thematic basket, or an illiquid position
|
|
37
|
+
- the user's objective and timeframe: tactical trading book, swing portfolio, retirement account, long-term core, and so on
|
|
38
|
+
|
|
39
|
+
Helpful but optional:
|
|
40
|
+
|
|
41
|
+
- sector, theme, or factor tags the user already tracks
|
|
42
|
+
- tax sensitivity if trimming a winner would be costly
|
|
43
|
+
- whether the user already knows certain holdings overlap
|
|
44
|
+
|
|
45
|
+
Use the user's materials first.
|
|
46
|
+
|
|
47
|
+
If the holdings snapshot is partial, say so clearly and keep the result provisional. Do not pretend a partial account view is the whole portfolio.
|
|
48
|
+
|
|
49
|
+
Work from the snapshot the user gave you. This plugin cannot read a brokerage account — the only positions it knows are the ones the user marked as held, at weights they reported themselves — so do not go and pull balances, quotes or holdings yourself: hand the exact brief (ticker, the field needed, the as-of date) to the host's own retrieval path, in a role-split host the agent that owns market data, and keep the result provisional wherever the snapshot stays partial.
|
|
50
|
+
|
|
51
|
+
## Analysis process
|
|
52
|
+
|
|
53
|
+
1. Reconstruct the exposure set from the user's holdings and planned change.
|
|
54
|
+
2. Measure direct concentration by issuer and by top positions.
|
|
55
|
+
3. Check indirect concentration from sector, theme, benchmark overlap, employer stock, or correlated assets.
|
|
56
|
+
4. Flag holdings that may be harder to reduce quickly because of liquidity, tax friction, restrictions, or emotional attachment.
|
|
57
|
+
5. Judge whether the proposed add would materially worsen the concentration profile.
|
|
58
|
+
6. Separate concentration risk from thesis quality. A good idea can still be too large in the context of the book.
|
|
59
|
+
7. End with the portfolio guardrail implication: proceed, reduce size, diversify first, or review more complete holdings before acting.
|
|
60
|
+
|
|
61
|
+
Use [references/concentration-framework.md](references/concentration-framework.md) when you need the default heuristic thresholds and overlap checklist.
|
|
62
|
+
|
|
63
|
+
## Core Assessment Framework
|
|
64
|
+
|
|
65
|
+
Assess the portfolio on five anchors before calling it well balanced:
|
|
66
|
+
|
|
67
|
+
- `Single-Issuer Exposure`: how much of the portfolio depends on one stock or bond issuer. Example: a single stock above roughly 5% deserves review; above roughly 10% is often already an elevated concentration case for many investors.
|
|
68
|
+
- `Correlated Cluster Exposure`: how much of the book depends on the same sector, theme, geography, factor, or benchmark leaders. Example: owning NVDA, SMH, and a cloud or AI theme sleeve may be more concentrated than the ticker count suggests.
|
|
69
|
+
- `Employment Or Identity Link`: whether the same company or theme affects both portfolio value and outside life circumstances. Example: employer stock can create a double hit to income and net worth.
|
|
70
|
+
- `Exit Flexibility`: how easily the user could reduce the exposure if conditions change. Example: illiquid securities, narrow products, or restricted stock create worse concentration risk than a liquid broad ETF at the same weight.
|
|
71
|
+
- `Snapshot Completeness`: whether the analysis saw enough of the user's holdings to judge true diversification. Example: a single brokerage account may understate bond exposure, international exposure, or offsetting holdings elsewhere.
|
|
72
|
+
|
|
73
|
+
Use the anchors to classify:
|
|
74
|
+
|
|
75
|
+
- `acceptable`: no position or correlated cluster appears dominant relative to the stated objective, and the planned add does not materially distort the book
|
|
76
|
+
- `elevated`: one or more positions or clusters deserve active monitoring or a smaller add because the portfolio is becoming too dependent on a limited set of drivers
|
|
77
|
+
- `too concentrated`: issuer, cluster, employer-stock, or liquidity risk is strong enough that adding exposure or holding as-is deserves a rethink before trade construction proceeds
|
|
78
|
+
|
|
79
|
+
## Evidence That Would Invalidate This Analysis
|
|
80
|
+
|
|
81
|
+
- the holdings snapshot was incomplete or stale enough to hide meaningful offsetting or overlapping exposures
|
|
82
|
+
- the planned add size changes materially
|
|
83
|
+
- a holding's sector, theme, or benchmark role was misclassified
|
|
84
|
+
- tax, lock-up, or liquidity constraints were stronger or weaker than described
|
|
85
|
+
- the user's objective changes from tactical trading capital to long-horizon core capital, or the reverse
|
|
86
|
+
|
|
87
|
+
## Output structure
|
|
88
|
+
|
|
89
|
+
Prefer this output order:
|
|
90
|
+
|
|
91
|
+
1. `Concentration Summary`
|
|
92
|
+
2. `Top Exposure Risks`
|
|
93
|
+
3. `Overlap And Correlation Review`
|
|
94
|
+
4. `Portfolio Guardrail`
|
|
95
|
+
5. `What Changes The Verdict`
|
|
96
|
+
6. `Next Skill`
|
|
97
|
+
|
|
98
|
+
Always include:
|
|
99
|
+
|
|
100
|
+
- whether the snapshot was full or partial
|
|
101
|
+
- the main issuer or cluster concentration
|
|
102
|
+
- any hidden overlap across stocks, ETFs, sectors, or themes
|
|
103
|
+
- whether the planned add worsens concentration materially
|
|
104
|
+
- any special risk from employer stock, narrow products, or illiquid holdings
|
|
105
|
+
- whether the user should move next to `position-sizing`, reduce exposure first, or review a fuller portfolio snapshot
|
|
106
|
+
|
|
107
|
+
A skill named above is an option for the user, not a step this role can take: only the skills the user switched on exist in this session, and the ones this plugin deliberately does not offer — placing orders, setting position size — are not reachable at all. Say what you would check next and let the user decide.
|
|
108
|
+
|
|
109
|
+
## Best practices
|
|
110
|
+
|
|
111
|
+
- do not equate more tickers with true diversification
|
|
112
|
+
- do not ignore ETF or fund overlap with individual positions
|
|
113
|
+
- do not treat employer stock like an ordinary holding
|
|
114
|
+
- do not recommend a larger position just because the thesis is attractive
|
|
115
|
+
|
|
116
|
+
## Usage examples
|
|
117
|
+
|
|
118
|
+
- "Use `portfolio-concentration` on this book before I add more semis: NVDA 8%, SMH 10%, QQQ 12%, cash 20%, the rest broad ETFs."
|
|
119
|
+
- "Use `portfolio-concentration` on my retirement account and tell me whether my employer stock and AI funds have made the portfolio more concentrated than it looks."
|