@v587d/capital-generation 2.7.1 → 2.7.3

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Files changed (122) hide show
  1. package/CHANGELOG.md +80 -0
  2. package/README.md +9 -7
  3. package/THIRD_PARTY_NOTICES.md +65 -24
  4. package/capital-config/client.js +2 -2
  5. package/capital-config/package.json +1 -1
  6. package/capital-watchlist/package.json +1 -1
  7. package/chart-ui/package.json +1 -1
  8. package/lib/web-retriever/local-fetch.d.ts +1 -1
  9. package/lib/web-retriever/local-fetch.js +1 -1
  10. package/lib/web-retriever/wind-client.d.ts +1 -1
  11. package/lib/web-retriever/wind-client.js +1 -1
  12. package/package.json +3 -1
  13. package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/UPSTREAM.md +9 -0
  14. package/selected-skills/catalog.js +200 -0
  15. package/selected-skills/china-stock-research-skills/UPSTREAM.md +2 -1
  16. package/selected-skills/investment-skills/UPSTREAM.md +2 -1
  17. package/selected-skills/peter-lynch-skill/LICENSE +21 -0
  18. package/selected-skills/peter-lynch-skill/UPSTREAM.md +72 -0
  19. package/selected-skills/peter-lynch-skill/skills/peter-lynch-skill/SKILL.md +142 -0
  20. package/selected-skills/peter-lynch-skill/skills/peter-lynch-skill/references/deep/methodology.md +587 -0
  21. package/selected-skills/peter-lynch-skill/skills/peter-lynch-skill/references/deep/system-prompt.md +102 -0
  22. package/selected-skills/peter-lynch-skill/skills/peter-lynch-skill/references/deep/web-research.md +471 -0
  23. package/selected-skills/peter-lynch-skill/skills/peter-lynch-skill/references/disclaimer.md +2 -0
  24. package/selected-skills/peter-lynch-skill/skills/peter-lynch-skill/references/filing-rules.md +64 -0
  25. package/selected-skills/peter-lynch-skill/skills/peter-lynch-skill/references/quick/methodology.md +195 -0
  26. package/selected-skills/peter-lynch-skill/skills/peter-lynch-skill/references/quick/system-prompt.md +72 -0
  27. package/selected-skills/peter-lynch-skill/skills/peter-lynch-skill/references/quick/web-research.md +379 -0
  28. package/selected-skills/trading-skills/LICENSE +21 -0
  29. package/selected-skills/trading-skills/UPSTREAM.md +111 -0
  30. package/selected-skills/trading-skills/skills/catalyst-map/SKILL.md +119 -0
  31. package/selected-skills/trading-skills/skills/catalyst-map/references/catalyst-framework.md +68 -0
  32. package/selected-skills/trading-skills/skills/earnings-preview/SKILL.md +124 -0
  33. package/selected-skills/trading-skills/skills/earnings-preview/references/data-providers.md +26 -0
  34. package/selected-skills/trading-skills/skills/earnings-preview/references/providers/fmp.md +49 -0
  35. package/selected-skills/trading-skills/skills/earnings-preview/references/providers/polygon.md +45 -0
  36. package/selected-skills/trading-skills/skills/earnings-preview/references/providers/tradingeconomics.md +49 -0
  37. package/selected-skills/trading-skills/skills/earnings-preview/references/relevance-ranking.md +24 -0
  38. package/selected-skills/trading-skills/skills/earnings-trade-prep/SKILL.md +134 -0
  39. package/selected-skills/trading-skills/skills/earnings-trade-prep/references/workflow-framework.md +65 -0
  40. package/selected-skills/trading-skills/skills/evidence-gap-check/SKILL.md +120 -0
  41. package/selected-skills/trading-skills/skills/evidence-gap-check/references/gap-framework.md +66 -0
  42. package/selected-skills/trading-skills/skills/execution-plan-check/SKILL.md +121 -0
  43. package/selected-skills/trading-skills/skills/execution-plan-check/references/execution-checklist.md +70 -0
  44. package/selected-skills/trading-skills/skills/journal-pattern-analyzer/SKILL.md +120 -0
  45. package/selected-skills/trading-skills/skills/journal-pattern-analyzer/references/calculation-helpers.md +16 -0
  46. package/selected-skills/trading-skills/skills/journal-pattern-analyzer/references/pattern-framework.md +74 -0
  47. package/selected-skills/trading-skills/skills/macro-event-analysis/SKILL.md +122 -0
  48. package/selected-skills/trading-skills/skills/macro-event-analysis/references/data-providers.md +23 -0
  49. package/selected-skills/trading-skills/skills/macro-event-analysis/references/interpretation-guide.md +22 -0
  50. package/selected-skills/trading-skills/skills/macro-event-analysis/references/providers/fmp.md +28 -0
  51. package/selected-skills/trading-skills/skills/macro-event-analysis/references/providers/tradingeconomics.md +40 -0
  52. package/selected-skills/trading-skills/skills/market-regime-analysis/SKILL.md +117 -0
  53. package/selected-skills/trading-skills/skills/market-regime-analysis/references/data-providers.md +26 -0
  54. package/selected-skills/trading-skills/skills/market-regime-analysis/references/providers/fmp.md +46 -0
  55. package/selected-skills/trading-skills/skills/market-regime-analysis/references/providers/polygon.md +36 -0
  56. package/selected-skills/trading-skills/skills/market-regime-analysis/references/providers/tradingeconomics.md +46 -0
  57. package/selected-skills/trading-skills/skills/market-regime-analysis/references/regime-framework.md +23 -0
  58. package/selected-skills/trading-skills/skills/portfolio-concentration/SKILL.md +119 -0
  59. package/selected-skills/trading-skills/skills/portfolio-concentration/references/concentration-framework.md +72 -0
  60. package/selected-skills/trading-skills/skills/portfolio-risk-review/SKILL.md +126 -0
  61. package/selected-skills/trading-skills/skills/portfolio-risk-review/references/workflow-framework.md +57 -0
  62. package/selected-skills/trading-skills/skills/position-management/SKILL.md +120 -0
  63. package/selected-skills/trading-skills/skills/position-management/references/management-framework.md +70 -0
  64. package/selected-skills/trading-skills/skills/position-sizing/SKILL.md +83 -0
  65. package/selected-skills/trading-skills/skills/position-sizing/assets/trade-plan-template.md +15 -0
  66. package/selected-skills/trading-skills/skills/position-sizing/references/calculation-helpers.md +13 -0
  67. package/selected-skills/trading-skills/skills/position-sizing/references/methodology.md +28 -0
  68. package/selected-skills/trading-skills/skills/post-trade-debrief/SKILL.md +99 -0
  69. package/selected-skills/trading-skills/skills/post-trade-debrief/references/workflow-framework.md +51 -0
  70. package/selected-skills/trading-skills/skills/post-trade-review/SKILL.md +82 -0
  71. package/selected-skills/trading-skills/skills/post-trade-review/references/review-rubric.md +34 -0
  72. package/selected-skills/trading-skills/skills/pre-trade-check/SKILL.md +136 -0
  73. package/selected-skills/trading-skills/skills/pre-trade-check/references/workflow-framework.md +61 -0
  74. package/selected-skills/trading-skills/skills/risk-reward-sanity-check/SKILL.md +81 -0
  75. package/selected-skills/trading-skills/skills/risk-reward-sanity-check/references/calculation-helpers.md +14 -0
  76. package/selected-skills/trading-skills/skills/risk-reward-sanity-check/references/failure-modes.md +9 -0
  77. package/selected-skills/trading-skills/skills/thesis-validation/SKILL.md +123 -0
  78. package/selected-skills/trading-skills/skills/thesis-validation/references/thesis-checklist.md +56 -0
  79. package/selected-skills/trading-skills/skills/watchlist-review/SKILL.md +119 -0
  80. package/selected-skills/trading-skills/skills/watchlist-review/references/review-framework.md +57 -0
  81. package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/ADDING-NEW-SKILLS.md +0 -546
  82. package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/CHANGELOG.md +0 -373
  83. package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/CI-CD-GUIDE.md +0 -432
  84. package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/CLAUDE.md +0 -148
  85. package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/CONTRIBUTING.md +0 -291
  86. package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/DEPLOYMENTS.md +0 -321
  87. package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/FAQ.md +0 -509
  88. package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/GEMINI.md +0 -419
  89. package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/PLATFORM-COMPATIBILITY.md +0 -529
  90. package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/README-claude-code.md +0 -435
  91. package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/README-cursor.md +0 -475
  92. package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/README-gemini.md +0 -532
  93. package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/README-ollama.md +0 -106
  94. package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/README-zh-TW.md +0 -461
  95. package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/README.md +0 -311
  96. package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/RELEASE-QUICK-REFERENCE.md +0 -230
  97. package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/RELEASE_NOTES.md +0 -121
  98. package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/SECURITY.md +0 -232
  99. package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/TODO.md +0 -28
  100. package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/package.json +0 -64
  101. package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/README.md +0 -119
  102. package/selected-skills/china-stock-research-skills/.github/ISSUE_TEMPLATE/bug_report.md +0 -35
  103. package/selected-skills/china-stock-research-skills/.github/ISSUE_TEMPLATE/skill_request.md +0 -28
  104. package/selected-skills/china-stock-research-skills/.github/PULL_REQUEST_TEMPLATE.md +0 -15
  105. package/selected-skills/china-stock-research-skills/CHANGELOG.md +0 -59
  106. package/selected-skills/china-stock-research-skills/CONTRIBUTING.md +0 -121
  107. package/selected-skills/china-stock-research-skills/GITHUB_PUBLISHING.md +0 -259
  108. package/selected-skills/china-stock-research-skills/INSTALL.md +0 -151
  109. package/selected-skills/china-stock-research-skills/PUBLISH_CHECKLIST.md +0 -165
  110. package/selected-skills/china-stock-research-skills/README.en.md +0 -209
  111. package/selected-skills/china-stock-research-skills/README.md +0 -209
  112. package/selected-skills/china-stock-research-skills/RELEASE_ASSETS.md +0 -222
  113. package/selected-skills/china-stock-research-skills/ROADMAP.md +0 -45
  114. package/selected-skills/china-stock-research-skills/SKILLS.md +0 -85
  115. package/selected-skills/china-stock-research-skills/examples/full-report-flow.md +0 -20
  116. package/selected-skills/china-stock-research-skills/examples/module-select-cases.md +0 -26
  117. package/selected-skills/china-stock-research-skills/examples/quickstart-prompts.md +0 -25
  118. package/selected-skills/investment-skills/.github/workflows/validate.yml +0 -25
  119. package/selected-skills/investment-skills/.tbd/config.yml +0 -107
  120. package/selected-skills/investment-skills/README.md +0 -253
  121. package/selected-skills/investment-skills/docs/development.md +0 -37
  122. package/selected-skills/investment-skills/docs/roadmap.md +0 -25
@@ -0,0 +1,120 @@
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+ ---
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+ name: journal-pattern-analyzer
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+ description: Use when the user has a trade journal or trade log and wants repeated strengths, mistakes, environment-dependent patterns, and process changes without turning the review into hindsight theater.
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+ ---
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+
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+ # Journal Pattern Analyzer
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+
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+ Use this skill when the user has a set of trades, journal notes, or review entries and wants to know what patterns are repeating across them.
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+
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+ This skill will not:
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+
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+ - grade the user only by total PnL
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+ - pretend a small sample proves a durable edge
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+ - replace single-trade post-mortems when the problem is still one specific position
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+
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+ ## Role
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+
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+ Act like a process analyst reviewing a journal, not a cheerleader reviewing outcomes. Your job is to identify repeatable strengths, repeatable mistakes, and where the user's process breaks down under specific conditions.
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+
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+ ## When to use it
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+
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+ Use it when the user wants to:
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+
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+ - review a batch of trades instead of one trade
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+ - identify recurring mistakes in entries, exits, sizing, timing, or catalyst handling
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+ - see whether performance changes by setup, regime, instrument, or time horizon
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+ - convert raw journal notes into one or two high-value process changes
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+
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+ ## Inputs and context
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+
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+ Ask for:
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+
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+ - a trade log, journal entries, or a summarized set of closed trades
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+ - the sample window: last 10 trades, last month, last quarter, earnings season, and so on
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+ - what fields exist: setup type, thesis, entry, stop, target, size, result, notes, adherence, catalyst context
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+ - whether the user wants to focus on behavioral patterns, setup quality, sizing quality, or environment fit
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+
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+ Helpful but optional:
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+
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+ - regime notes
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+ - sector or instrument tags
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+ - whether results are in dollars, percentages, or R multiples
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+ - any pattern the user already suspects
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+
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+ Use the user's materials first.
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+
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+ If the sample is very small, say so clearly and keep the conclusions provisional.
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+
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+ When the journal is structured enough to count things, the counting does not happen in this role: the analysis role in this plugin has no shell and runs no helper scripts. Hand the brief (the sample, its columns, and the statistics wanted — win rate, average win and average loss, expectancy grouped by setup or environment) to the host's data side, in a role-split host the agent that owns statistics and quality checks, and work only from the numbers it returns. Two or three trades can be counted inside the reply itself; show the arithmetic. A row missing a field stays missing, never defaulted.
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+
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+ ## Analysis process
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+
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+ 1. Reconstruct the journal sample and what the user is trying to learn.
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+ 2. Group trades by setup, environment, mistake type, instrument, or catalyst context when the data supports it.
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+ 3. Separate outcome patterns from process patterns.
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+ 4. Identify recurring strengths and recurring mistakes.
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+ 5. Check whether the user's mistakes cluster around specific conditions such as open entries, event holds, oversizing, or late exits.
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+ 6. Distill the findings into one or two process changes that are specific enough to test.
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+ 7. End with what the user should keep doing, stop doing, and monitor next.
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+
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+ Use [references/pattern-framework.md](references/pattern-framework.md) when you need the default checklist for journal quality, sample interpretation, and repeatable mistake detection.
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+
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+ ## Core Assessment Framework
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+
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+ Assess the journal on five anchors before drawing conclusions:
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+
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+ - `Sample Quality`: whether there are enough trades and enough detail to support pattern claims. Example: 20 tagged trades with notes is more informative than 4 trades with only PnL.
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+ - `Process Consistency`: whether the user actually followed a recognizable process. Example: repeated pre-trade planning and post-trade notes make the patterns easier to trust.
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+ - `Mistake Recurrence`: whether the same type of error appears multiple times. Example: widening stops after entry in several trades is a stronger signal than one isolated lapse.
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+ - `Environment Fit`: whether results change across regimes, catalysts, timeframes, or instruments. Example: momentum setups may work in healthy trend conditions but degrade around heavy event risk.
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+ - `Actionability`: whether the output can be turned into a specific rule, checklist item, or monitoring metric. Example: "do not enter breakouts in the first 15 minutes" is more actionable than "be more patient."
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+
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+ Use the anchors to classify:
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+
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+ - `useful pattern set`: the journal is detailed enough to support actionable conclusions
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+ - `suggestive but thin`: there may be a pattern, but the sample or tagging quality is too weak for strong claims
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+ - `not analyzable yet`: the notes are too sparse or the sample is too small to draw meaningful process conclusions
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+
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+ ## Evidence That Would Invalidate This Analysis
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+
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+ - the sample is incomplete or selectively chosen
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+ - key fields such as setup type, adherence, or notes were missing or mis-tagged
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+ - the results mix different strategies or timeframes that should not have been analyzed together
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+ - later entries show that the apparent pattern was only a short-lived cluster
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+ - the user changes process materially, making the historical pattern less relevant
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+
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+ ## Output structure
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+
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+ Prefer this output order:
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+
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+ 1. `Pattern Summary`
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+ 2. `What Is Working`
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+ 3. `What Keeps Going Wrong`
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+ 4. `Where The Pattern Appears`
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+ 5. `Process Change To Test`
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+ 6. `What To Track Next`
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+ 7. `Next Skill`
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+
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+ Always include:
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+
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+ - whether the sample is strong enough for conclusions
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+ - the clearest repeated strength
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+ - the clearest repeated mistake
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+ - where the pattern clusters: setup, timeframe, catalyst, instrument, or regime
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+ - one or two process changes to test next
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+ - whether the next step is `post-trade-review`, a revised rule in the journal, or no additional skill yet
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+
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+ A skill named above is an option for the user, not a step this role can take: only the skills the user switched on exist in this session, and the ones this plugin deliberately does not offer — placing orders, setting position size — are not reachable at all. Say what you would check next and let the user decide.
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+
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+ ## Best practices
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+
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+ - do not confuse outcome streaks with process quality
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+ - do not draw strong conclusions from tiny samples
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+ - do not hide repeated discipline failures behind a positive net PnL
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+ - do not recommend more than one or two process changes at once
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+
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+ ## Usage examples
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+
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+ - "Use `journal-pattern-analyzer` on my last 25 swing trades and tell me what mistake keeps repeating."
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+ - "Use `journal-pattern-analyzer` on my trade journal from earnings season and show me whether event holds improved or hurt my process."
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+ # Calculation Helpers
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+
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+ What to work out, and where the numbers come from in this plugin: the analysis role has no shell and
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+ runs no helper scripts. Hand the journal sample and the statistics wanted to the host's data side
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+ (in a role-split host, the agent that owns statistics and quality checks), or show the arithmetic in
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+ the reply when the sample is only a few trades.
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+
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+ The measures this skill cares about:
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+
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+ - `expectancy` — win rate times average win, minus the loss rate times average loss; also worth
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+ stating in R units (that same number divided by the average loss)
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+ - `kelly_fraction` — a reference number from win rate and payoff ratio, never a size to hand the user
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+
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+ When the journal includes structured results, combine these measures with simple grouped summaries of
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+ win rate, average win, average loss, and loss clustering. Keep any conclusions provisional when the
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+ sample is small or inconsistently tagged.
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+ # Pattern Framework
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+
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+ Use this framework to review a trade journal for repeatable strengths and mistakes.
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+
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+ ## What a journal review should answer
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+
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+ - What is actually repeating?
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+ - Is the pattern about process, environment, or both?
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+ - Is the sample good enough to trust?
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+ - What is the one rule or change worth testing next?
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+
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+ ## What to group by
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+
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+ When possible, group trades by:
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+
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+ - setup type
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+ - timeframe
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+ - instrument
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+ - sector or theme
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+ - catalyst context
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+ - adherence quality
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+ - market regime
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+
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+ ## Common repeatable patterns
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+
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+ Helpful patterns:
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+
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+ - strongest setups are concentrated in one environment
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+ - best trades share better preparation or cleaner invalidation
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+ - worst trades cluster around event holds, open entries, or oversizing
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+
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+ Risky patterns:
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+
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+ - widening stops after entry
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+ - late chasing
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+ - taking profits too early relative to the plan
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+ - oversizing after recent wins
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+ - forcing trades in poor regimes
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+ - holding through catalysts without explicit reasons
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+
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+ ## Sample discipline
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+
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+ Be careful when:
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+
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+ - the sample is very small
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+ - only the most memorable trades are included
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+ - notes are sparse
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+ - different strategies are mixed together without separation
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+
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+ ## Good process changes
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+
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+ Good changes are:
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+
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+ - specific
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+ - testable
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+ - narrow
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+
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+ Examples:
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+
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+ - no breakout entries in the first 15 minutes
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+ - no event holds without a written reason
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+ - cut size after two process violations in a week
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+
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+ Bad changes are:
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+
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+ - trade better
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+ - be more disciplined
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+ - trust yourself more
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+
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+ ## Boundaries
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+
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+ This framework does not prove a durable edge.
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+
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+ It only helps the user learn from recorded behavior and improve process quality.
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+ ---
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+ name: macro-event-analysis
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+ description: Prepare for upcoming macro catalysts by identifying the events that matter, mapping the likely transmission channels, and surfacing timing risk for the user's markets or positions.
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+ ---
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+
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+ # Macro Event Analysis
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+
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+ Use this skill when the user needs a practical read on upcoming macro event risk before holding positions, increasing size, or planning entries around catalysts.
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+
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+ This skill will not:
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+
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+ - predict the exact price reaction to a release
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+ - treat every calendar entry as decision-relevant
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+ - substitute macro theater for position-specific planning
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+
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+ ## Role
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+
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+ Act like a macro risk analyst preparing a trader for event risk. Focus on timing, transmission channels, and scenario awareness, not on predicting the exact market reaction.
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+
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+ ## When to use it
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+
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+ Use it when the user wants to:
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+
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+ - understand the next 24 hours to two weeks of macro event risk
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+ - filter a long calendar into the few releases that really matter
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+ - map event risk to rates, FX, index futures, commodities, or sector leadership
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+ - decide whether holding through a catalyst is sensible or whether the calendar argues for caution
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+
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+ ## Inputs and context
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+
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+ Ask for:
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+
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+ - the market or exposure that matters: US equities, rates, FX, energy, Europe, and so on
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+ - the time window: today, next 48 hours, next week
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+ - any specific countries, central banks, or releases the user cares about
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+ - whether the user is planning entries, holding existing risk, or reviewing a macro-heavy week
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+
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+ Helpful but optional:
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+
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+ - current positioning context
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+ - specific holdings or watchlist names
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+ - events the user already knows are important
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+
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+ Use the user's materials first: pasted event lists, screenshots, platform notes, transcripts, watchlists, or provider details already mentioned in the conversation.
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+
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+ ## If critical data is missing
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+
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+ If the user already gave enough event information to analyze, do not fetch anything.
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+
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+ If the timing or event slate is still incomplete:
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+
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+ - check whether the conversation already points to a supported provider or includes usable access details
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+ - if the user already indicated `FMP` or `TradingEconomics`, use [references/providers/fmp.md](references/providers/fmp.md) or [references/providers/tradingeconomics.md](references/providers/tradingeconomics.md) directly
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+ - otherwise consult [references/data-providers.md](references/data-providers.md) and ask which supported provider they want to use
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+ - once the missing event details are gathered, continue the analysis and disclose the source used
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+
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+ ## Analysis process
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+
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+ 1. Build the relevant event slate for the requested window.
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+ 2. Rank the events by likely decision impact, not by calendar length.
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+ 3. Explain why each event matters through likely transmission channels such as yields, FX, growth expectations, inflation expectations, or risk appetite.
62
+ 4. Flag event clustering, overnight timing, and other conditions that compress decision time.
63
+ 5. Separate high-visibility events from lower-signal filler.
64
+ 6. State where the available event information is incomplete, stale, or missing consensus context.
65
+ 7. Translate the event slate into practical preparation questions: what should the user avoid assuming, monitor closely, or plan around?
66
+
67
+ Use [references/interpretation-guide.md](references/interpretation-guide.md) when you need a reminder to emphasize event risk over prediction.
68
+
69
+ ## Core Assessment Framework
70
+
71
+ Rank each event against four anchors before calling it important:
72
+
73
+ - `Market Sensitivity`: does the user's market historically react to this release or central-bank signal. Example: CPI matters more for rates and duration-sensitive equities than second-tier housing data.
74
+ - `Surprise Capacity`: is there meaningful room between prior, consensus, and current positioning. Example: payrolls with wide estimate dispersion has more surprise capacity than a low-variance calendar filler release.
75
+ - `Transmission Speed`: how quickly the event can move yields, FX, commodities, or index futures. Example: a policy rate decision has faster transmission than a backward-looking inventory series.
76
+ - `Timing Pressure`: does the release compress the user's decision window through overnight timing, clustering, or proximity to existing risk.
77
+
78
+ Use the anchors to sort events into:
79
+
80
+ - `primary`: directly relevant, high transmission, and able to change decision quality now
81
+ - `secondary`: worth monitoring, but less likely to dominate positioning
82
+ - `background`: context only unless the user's book is unusually sensitive
83
+
84
+ ## Evidence That Would Invalidate This Analysis
85
+
86
+ - the event timing changes materially or the release is revised, delayed, or cancelled
87
+ - the consensus or prior values that anchored the importance ranking turn out to be stale or missing
88
+ - another event overtakes the stated catalyst by moving yields, FX, or risk appetite more decisively
89
+ - the user's actual exposure changes, making the current transmission map less relevant
90
+ - market pricing has already absorbed the catalyst so completely that the expected sensitivity is no longer plausible
91
+
92
+ ## Output structure
93
+
94
+ Prefer this output order:
95
+
96
+ 1. `Event Slate`
97
+ 2. `Core Assessment Framework`
98
+ 3. `Transmission Channels`
99
+ 4. `Preparation Brief`
100
+ 5. `Evidence That Would Invalidate This Analysis`
101
+ 6. `Source And Caveats`
102
+
103
+ Always return:
104
+
105
+ - a prioritized event slate for the requested window
106
+ - why each event matters for the user's market or exposure
107
+ - the main transmission channels to watch
108
+ - timing notes, including clustered or overnight risk
109
+ - a short preparation brief: what to monitor, what to avoid assuming, and where caution is warranted
110
+ - explicit source, freshness, and caveats when provider-based data is used
111
+
112
+ ## Best practices
113
+
114
+ - do not claim that a release guarantees direction
115
+ - do not bury missing consensus or stale timestamps
116
+ - distinguish event importance from certainty
117
+ - keep the output tied to the user's actual markets and holding period
118
+
119
+ ## Usage examples
120
+
121
+ - "Use `macro-event-analysis` for the next 48 hours. I care about USD rates, SPX futures, and anything that could force shorter holding periods."
122
+ - "Use `macro-event-analysis` for next week with a focus on US and euro area events, and tell me where the available calendar data looks thin."
@@ -0,0 +1,23 @@
1
+ # Data Providers
2
+
3
+ Use this only if the user did not already provide enough event information.
4
+
5
+ Supported providers:
6
+
7
+ - `FMP`: economic release calendar with timing and basic consensus fields through `/stable/economic-calendar`
8
+ - `TradingEconomics`: macro event schedule and release context through `/calendar/...`
9
+
10
+ If the user already named one of these providers or already shared usable access details, use that provider path directly.
11
+
12
+ Otherwise ask: "Which provider do you want to use for the missing macro event data: FMP or TradingEconomics?"
13
+
14
+ Fallback strategy:
15
+
16
+ - start with `FMP` when the user needs a quick event slate by date window and country
17
+ - use `TradingEconomics` when the user needs indicator-specific history, country filtering, or source-heavy calendar context
18
+ - if one provider lacks forecast, prior, or timing detail for a critical event, say so and ask whether to supplement with the other supported provider
19
+
20
+ Provider notes:
21
+
22
+ - [FMP](providers/fmp.md)
23
+ - [TradingEconomics](providers/tradingeconomics.md)
@@ -0,0 +1,22 @@
1
+ # Interpretation Guide
2
+
3
+ Focus on event risk, not prediction.
4
+
5
+ ## What to highlight
6
+
7
+ - high-impact releases
8
+ - clustered events that compress decision time
9
+ - events likely to affect rates, FX, index futures, or sector leadership
10
+ - missing consensus or previous values that reduce context quality
11
+
12
+ ## What not to claim
13
+
14
+ - that an event will move markets in a specific direction
15
+ - that the provider has full global coverage
16
+ - that stale timestamps are harmless
17
+
18
+ ## Reporting guidance
19
+
20
+ - Put source and freshness near the top.
21
+ - Distinguish scheduled events from released events.
22
+ - If timestamps or importance fields look incomplete, say so explicitly.
@@ -0,0 +1,28 @@
1
+ # FMP
2
+
3
+ Use this path only when the user already indicated `FMP` or chose it from the supported provider list.
4
+
5
+ Use the official economic calendar endpoint for the specific window you need:
6
+
7
+ ```bash
8
+ curl "https://financialmodelingprep.com/stable/economic-calendar?from=2026-03-06&to=2026-03-13&country=US&apikey=<FMP_API_KEY>"
9
+ ```
10
+
11
+ Pull only the fields you need for the analysis:
12
+
13
+ - `date`
14
+ - `country`
15
+ - `event`
16
+ - `impact`
17
+ - `previous`
18
+ - `estimate`
19
+ - `actual`
20
+ - `lastUpdated`
21
+
22
+ Filter to the user’s actual window and countries before writing the analysis.
23
+
24
+ After collecting the missing facts, return to the macro analysis. Disclose that `FMP` supplied the event schedule.
25
+
26
+ Official docs:
27
+
28
+ - [FMP economic calendar API](https://site.financialmodelingprep.com/developer/docs/stable/economics-calendar)
@@ -0,0 +1,40 @@
1
+ # TradingEconomics
2
+
3
+ Use this path only when the user already indicated `TradingEconomics` or chose it from the supported provider list.
4
+
5
+ Use the smallest calendar request that fills the missing event facts.
6
+
7
+ ## Best endpoint for a country-level upcoming slate
8
+
9
+ ```bash
10
+ curl "https://api.tradingeconomics.com/calendar/country/united%20states?c=<TE_API_KEY>&f=json"
11
+ ```
12
+
13
+ Use this when the user wants the next relevant releases for one country and you do not need a narrow indicator filter yet.
14
+
15
+ ## Best endpoint for a specific indicator and date range
16
+
17
+ ```bash
18
+ curl "https://api.tradingeconomics.com/calendar/country/united%20states/indicator/nonfarm%20payrolls/2026-03-01/2026-03-31?c=<TE_API_KEY>&f=json"
19
+ ```
20
+
21
+ Use this when the user already identified the key release and you only need the dated event history or forward window for that indicator.
22
+
23
+ Pull only the fields you need:
24
+
25
+ - `Date`
26
+ - `Country`
27
+ - `Event`
28
+ - `Actual`
29
+ - `Previous`
30
+ - `Forecast`
31
+ - `Importance`
32
+ - `LastUpdate`
33
+ - `Source`
34
+
35
+ Keep the result analytical. Do not mirror the whole calendar back to the user unless they asked for that explicitly.
36
+
37
+ Official docs:
38
+
39
+ - [TradingEconomics economic calendar by country docs](https://docs.tradingeconomics.com/economic_calendar/country/)
40
+ - [TradingEconomics economic calendar point-in-time docs](https://docs.tradingeconomics.com/economic_calendar/point-in-time/)
@@ -0,0 +1,117 @@
1
+ ---
2
+ name: market-regime-analysis
3
+ description: Analyze current market context through trend, volatility, breadth, and event backdrop so the user can choose tactics that fit the environment without relying on black-box regime claims.
4
+ ---
5
+
6
+ # Market Regime Analysis
7
+
8
+ Use this skill when you need a disciplined read on market context before selecting tactics, sizing, or holding period.
9
+
10
+ This skill will not:
11
+
12
+ - forecast market returns from a label
13
+ - assign fake confidence percentages to limited evidence
14
+ - replace instrument-specific trade planning or risk limits
15
+
16
+ ## Role
17
+
18
+ Act like a market structure analyst. Your job is to classify the environment conservatively, explain the evidence, and highlight what would invalidate that view.
19
+
20
+ ## When to use it
21
+
22
+ Use it when the user wants to:
23
+
24
+ - decide whether trend-following, mean reversion, or caution is the better default
25
+ - understand whether a market is healthy, fragile, defensive, or in transition
26
+ - adapt size and expectations to changing breadth or volatility
27
+ - pressure-test a market read before committing capital
28
+
29
+ ## Inputs and context
30
+
31
+ Ask for observations about:
32
+
33
+ - trend
34
+ - volatility
35
+ - breadth or participation
36
+ - leadership quality or concentration
37
+ - liquidity and event backdrop
38
+ - relevant timeframe and market focus
39
+
40
+ If the user is vague, ask for the minimum evidence needed instead of forcing a fake label.
41
+
42
+ Use the user's materials first: market notes, watchlists, screenshots, chart observations, breadth notes, or any provider details already mentioned in the conversation.
43
+
44
+ ## If critical data is missing
45
+
46
+ If the user already supplied enough evidence to classify the environment, do not fetch anything.
47
+
48
+ If trend, volatility, breadth, or event context is still too thin:
49
+
50
+ - check whether the user already named a supported provider or already shared usable access details
51
+ - if they already indicated `FMP`, `TradingEconomics`, or `Polygon`, use [references/providers/fmp.md](references/providers/fmp.md), [references/providers/tradingeconomics.md](references/providers/tradingeconomics.md), or [references/providers/polygon.md](references/providers/polygon.md) directly
52
+ - otherwise consult [references/data-providers.md](references/data-providers.md) and ask which supported provider they want to use
53
+ - once the missing context is gathered, continue the regime analysis and disclose the source used
54
+
55
+ ## Analysis process
56
+
57
+ 1. Assess trend, volatility, breadth, and event backdrop separately.
58
+ 2. Look for agreement or conflict across those dimensions.
59
+ 3. Classify the environment conservatively.
60
+ 4. Explain which tactics fit the environment and which become fragile.
61
+ 5. State what evidence would change the classification.
62
+
63
+ Use [references/regime-framework.md](references/regime-framework.md) if you need the default label set and interpretation guidance.
64
+
65
+ ## Core Assessment Framework
66
+
67
+ Score the environment on four anchors before choosing a label:
68
+
69
+ - `Trend`: higher highs and higher lows on the user's timeframe, or repeated failure at support and resistance. Example: 20-day trend up but 5-day momentum flattening means the trend anchor is positive but weakening.
70
+ - `Volatility`: realized range and gap behavior relative to the recent norm. Example: daily ranges expanding from 1.1% to 2.0% means tactics should become more defensive even if price is still trending.
71
+ - `Breadth`: participation across sectors, index members, or the user's watchlist. Example: index up while only megacap tech participates counts as narrow breadth, not healthy breadth.
72
+ - `Event Backdrop`: whether macro releases, earnings clusters, or policy headlines can invalidate the read quickly. Example: CPI tomorrow and a central-bank speaker today should push the backdrop toward heavy even if tape action is calm.
73
+
74
+ Use these anchors to classify:
75
+
76
+ - `healthy trend`: trend positive, volatility contained or normal, breadth broad enough, event backdrop not immediately disruptive
77
+ - `fragile trend`: trend positive, but breadth narrow or volatility elevated
78
+ - `transition`: anchors conflict meaningfully and no single tactic deserves high conviction
79
+ - `defensive`: trend negative or unstable, volatility elevated, breadth weak, or event backdrop heavy enough to shrink decision time
80
+
81
+ ## Evidence That Would Invalidate This Analysis
82
+
83
+ - the next session or two reverses the trend anchor with a decisive break of the key level the analysis relied on
84
+ - breadth expands or collapses enough to contradict the current participation read
85
+ - volatility contracts or explodes enough to make the current tactic set inappropriate
86
+ - a new macro or earnings event changes the backdrop from manageable to heavy, or the reverse
87
+ - the user's timeframe changes materially, because intraday and swing regime reads should not be treated as interchangeable
88
+
89
+ ## Output structure
90
+
91
+ Prefer this output order:
92
+
93
+ 1. `Regime Summary`
94
+ 2. `Core Assessment Framework`
95
+ 3. `Tactical Implications`
96
+ 4. `Evidence That Would Invalidate This Analysis`
97
+ 5. `Caveats`
98
+
99
+ Always include:
100
+
101
+ - regime classification in plain language
102
+ - key evidence used
103
+ - what weakens or invalidates the current read
104
+ - tactical implications for risk-taking, trade duration, and expectation-setting
105
+
106
+ Avoid fake certainty or theatrical confidence percentages.
107
+
108
+ ## Best practices
109
+
110
+ - do not forecast returns from a single regime label
111
+ - do not turn limited evidence into precise confidence scores
112
+ - do not replace instrument-specific trade planning
113
+
114
+ ## Usage examples
115
+
116
+ - "Use `market-regime-analysis` from these observations: uptrend intact, breadth narrowing, volatility elevated, CPI tomorrow."
117
+ - "Use `market-regime-analysis` on my notes from this week and tell me whether trend-following or mean reversion is the safer default."
@@ -0,0 +1,26 @@
1
+ # Data Providers
2
+
3
+ Use this only if the user did not already provide enough market context.
4
+
5
+ Supported providers:
6
+
7
+ - `FMP`: recent price action, benchmark index context, and event calendar context through quotes, light historical prices, and the economic calendar
8
+ - `TradingEconomics`: market history for benchmark symbols and optional economic calendar checks through `/markets/historical` and `/calendar/country/...`
9
+ - `Polygon`: strong default for recent price history and benchmark comparison when the user already uses Polygon market data
10
+
11
+ If the user already named one of these providers or already shared usable access details, use that provider path directly.
12
+
13
+ Otherwise ask: "Which provider do you want to use for the missing market context: FMP, TradingEconomics, or Polygon?"
14
+
15
+ Fallback strategy:
16
+
17
+ - start with `FMP` when you need one provider for price context plus a quick macro-event check
18
+ - use `TradingEconomics` when cross-checking market history with macro calendar pressure
19
+ - use `Polygon` when the user already uses Polygon and the missing context is recent price action or benchmark comparison
20
+ - if event-backdrop context is still missing after a `Polygon` query, say so and ask whether to supplement with `FMP` or `TradingEconomics`
21
+
22
+ Provider notes:
23
+
24
+ - [FMP](providers/fmp.md)
25
+ - [TradingEconomics](providers/tradingeconomics.md)
26
+ - [Polygon](providers/polygon.md)
@@ -0,0 +1,46 @@
1
+ # FMP
2
+
3
+ Use this path only when the user already indicated `FMP` or chose it from the supported provider list.
4
+
5
+ Use it to pull only the minimum price or event context needed for the regime read.
6
+
7
+ ## Best endpoint for latest benchmark snapshot
8
+
9
+ Use the short quote endpoint for quick current context:
10
+
11
+ ```bash
12
+ curl "https://financialmodelingprep.com/stable/quote-short?symbol=SPY&apikey=<FMP_API_KEY>"
13
+ ```
14
+
15
+ This is useful when you only need the latest price, change, and volume snapshot.
16
+
17
+ ## Best endpoint for recent trend
18
+
19
+ Use the light historical endpoint for a short lookback:
20
+
21
+ ```bash
22
+ curl "https://financialmodelingprep.com/stable/historical-price-eod/light?symbol=SPY&from=2026-02-20&to=2026-03-06&apikey=<FMP_API_KEY>"
23
+ ```
24
+
25
+ Repeat for other symbols only if needed, such as `QQQ`, `IWM`, or sector ETFs the user already cares about.
26
+
27
+ ## Optional event-backdrop check
28
+
29
+ If the regime read also needs macro timing context, use:
30
+
31
+ ```bash
32
+ curl "https://financialmodelingprep.com/stable/economic-calendar?from=2026-03-06&to=2026-03-13&country=US&apikey=<FMP_API_KEY>"
33
+ ```
34
+
35
+ ## How to use the result
36
+
37
+ - use quote data for the latest snapshot, not for forecasting
38
+ - use historical prices to judge trend quality and recent volatility
39
+ - use the calendar endpoint only if event risk is part of the missing context
40
+ - disclose that FMP supplied part of the market context
41
+
42
+ Official docs:
43
+
44
+ - [FMP quote short API](https://site.financialmodelingprep.com/developer/docs/stable/quote-short)
45
+ - [FMP historical price light API](https://site.financialmodelingprep.com/developer/docs/stable/historical-price-eod-light)
46
+ - [FMP economic calendar API](https://site.financialmodelingprep.com/developer/docs/stable/economics-calendar)