@v587d/capital-generation 2.7.1 → 2.7.3
This diff represents the content of publicly available package versions that have been released to one of the supported registries. The information contained in this diff is provided for informational purposes only and reflects changes between package versions as they appear in their respective public registries.
- package/CHANGELOG.md +80 -0
- package/README.md +9 -7
- package/THIRD_PARTY_NOTICES.md +65 -24
- package/capital-config/client.js +2 -2
- package/capital-config/package.json +1 -1
- package/capital-watchlist/package.json +1 -1
- package/chart-ui/package.json +1 -1
- package/lib/web-retriever/local-fetch.d.ts +1 -1
- package/lib/web-retriever/local-fetch.js +1 -1
- package/lib/web-retriever/wind-client.d.ts +1 -1
- package/lib/web-retriever/wind-client.js +1 -1
- package/package.json +3 -1
- package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/UPSTREAM.md +9 -0
- package/selected-skills/catalog.js +200 -0
- package/selected-skills/china-stock-research-skills/UPSTREAM.md +2 -1
- package/selected-skills/investment-skills/UPSTREAM.md +2 -1
- package/selected-skills/peter-lynch-skill/LICENSE +21 -0
- package/selected-skills/peter-lynch-skill/UPSTREAM.md +72 -0
- package/selected-skills/peter-lynch-skill/skills/peter-lynch-skill/SKILL.md +142 -0
- package/selected-skills/peter-lynch-skill/skills/peter-lynch-skill/references/deep/methodology.md +587 -0
- package/selected-skills/peter-lynch-skill/skills/peter-lynch-skill/references/deep/system-prompt.md +102 -0
- package/selected-skills/peter-lynch-skill/skills/peter-lynch-skill/references/deep/web-research.md +471 -0
- package/selected-skills/peter-lynch-skill/skills/peter-lynch-skill/references/disclaimer.md +2 -0
- package/selected-skills/peter-lynch-skill/skills/peter-lynch-skill/references/filing-rules.md +64 -0
- package/selected-skills/peter-lynch-skill/skills/peter-lynch-skill/references/quick/methodology.md +195 -0
- package/selected-skills/peter-lynch-skill/skills/peter-lynch-skill/references/quick/system-prompt.md +72 -0
- package/selected-skills/peter-lynch-skill/skills/peter-lynch-skill/references/quick/web-research.md +379 -0
- package/selected-skills/trading-skills/LICENSE +21 -0
- package/selected-skills/trading-skills/UPSTREAM.md +111 -0
- package/selected-skills/trading-skills/skills/catalyst-map/SKILL.md +119 -0
- package/selected-skills/trading-skills/skills/catalyst-map/references/catalyst-framework.md +68 -0
- package/selected-skills/trading-skills/skills/earnings-preview/SKILL.md +124 -0
- package/selected-skills/trading-skills/skills/earnings-preview/references/data-providers.md +26 -0
- package/selected-skills/trading-skills/skills/earnings-preview/references/providers/fmp.md +49 -0
- package/selected-skills/trading-skills/skills/earnings-preview/references/providers/polygon.md +45 -0
- package/selected-skills/trading-skills/skills/earnings-preview/references/providers/tradingeconomics.md +49 -0
- package/selected-skills/trading-skills/skills/earnings-preview/references/relevance-ranking.md +24 -0
- package/selected-skills/trading-skills/skills/earnings-trade-prep/SKILL.md +134 -0
- package/selected-skills/trading-skills/skills/earnings-trade-prep/references/workflow-framework.md +65 -0
- package/selected-skills/trading-skills/skills/evidence-gap-check/SKILL.md +120 -0
- package/selected-skills/trading-skills/skills/evidence-gap-check/references/gap-framework.md +66 -0
- package/selected-skills/trading-skills/skills/execution-plan-check/SKILL.md +121 -0
- package/selected-skills/trading-skills/skills/execution-plan-check/references/execution-checklist.md +70 -0
- package/selected-skills/trading-skills/skills/journal-pattern-analyzer/SKILL.md +120 -0
- package/selected-skills/trading-skills/skills/journal-pattern-analyzer/references/calculation-helpers.md +16 -0
- package/selected-skills/trading-skills/skills/journal-pattern-analyzer/references/pattern-framework.md +74 -0
- package/selected-skills/trading-skills/skills/macro-event-analysis/SKILL.md +122 -0
- package/selected-skills/trading-skills/skills/macro-event-analysis/references/data-providers.md +23 -0
- package/selected-skills/trading-skills/skills/macro-event-analysis/references/interpretation-guide.md +22 -0
- package/selected-skills/trading-skills/skills/macro-event-analysis/references/providers/fmp.md +28 -0
- package/selected-skills/trading-skills/skills/macro-event-analysis/references/providers/tradingeconomics.md +40 -0
- package/selected-skills/trading-skills/skills/market-regime-analysis/SKILL.md +117 -0
- package/selected-skills/trading-skills/skills/market-regime-analysis/references/data-providers.md +26 -0
- package/selected-skills/trading-skills/skills/market-regime-analysis/references/providers/fmp.md +46 -0
- package/selected-skills/trading-skills/skills/market-regime-analysis/references/providers/polygon.md +36 -0
- package/selected-skills/trading-skills/skills/market-regime-analysis/references/providers/tradingeconomics.md +46 -0
- package/selected-skills/trading-skills/skills/market-regime-analysis/references/regime-framework.md +23 -0
- package/selected-skills/trading-skills/skills/portfolio-concentration/SKILL.md +119 -0
- package/selected-skills/trading-skills/skills/portfolio-concentration/references/concentration-framework.md +72 -0
- package/selected-skills/trading-skills/skills/portfolio-risk-review/SKILL.md +126 -0
- package/selected-skills/trading-skills/skills/portfolio-risk-review/references/workflow-framework.md +57 -0
- package/selected-skills/trading-skills/skills/position-management/SKILL.md +120 -0
- package/selected-skills/trading-skills/skills/position-management/references/management-framework.md +70 -0
- package/selected-skills/trading-skills/skills/position-sizing/SKILL.md +83 -0
- package/selected-skills/trading-skills/skills/position-sizing/assets/trade-plan-template.md +15 -0
- package/selected-skills/trading-skills/skills/position-sizing/references/calculation-helpers.md +13 -0
- package/selected-skills/trading-skills/skills/position-sizing/references/methodology.md +28 -0
- package/selected-skills/trading-skills/skills/post-trade-debrief/SKILL.md +99 -0
- package/selected-skills/trading-skills/skills/post-trade-debrief/references/workflow-framework.md +51 -0
- package/selected-skills/trading-skills/skills/post-trade-review/SKILL.md +82 -0
- package/selected-skills/trading-skills/skills/post-trade-review/references/review-rubric.md +34 -0
- package/selected-skills/trading-skills/skills/pre-trade-check/SKILL.md +136 -0
- package/selected-skills/trading-skills/skills/pre-trade-check/references/workflow-framework.md +61 -0
- package/selected-skills/trading-skills/skills/risk-reward-sanity-check/SKILL.md +81 -0
- package/selected-skills/trading-skills/skills/risk-reward-sanity-check/references/calculation-helpers.md +14 -0
- package/selected-skills/trading-skills/skills/risk-reward-sanity-check/references/failure-modes.md +9 -0
- package/selected-skills/trading-skills/skills/thesis-validation/SKILL.md +123 -0
- package/selected-skills/trading-skills/skills/thesis-validation/references/thesis-checklist.md +56 -0
- package/selected-skills/trading-skills/skills/watchlist-review/SKILL.md +119 -0
- package/selected-skills/trading-skills/skills/watchlist-review/references/review-framework.md +57 -0
- package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/ADDING-NEW-SKILLS.md +0 -546
- package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/CHANGELOG.md +0 -373
- package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/CI-CD-GUIDE.md +0 -432
- package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/CLAUDE.md +0 -148
- package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/CONTRIBUTING.md +0 -291
- package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/DEPLOYMENTS.md +0 -321
- package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/FAQ.md +0 -509
- package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/GEMINI.md +0 -419
- package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/PLATFORM-COMPATIBILITY.md +0 -529
- package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/README-claude-code.md +0 -435
- package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/README-cursor.md +0 -475
- package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/README-gemini.md +0 -532
- package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/README-ollama.md +0 -106
- package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/README-zh-TW.md +0 -461
- package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/README.md +0 -311
- package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/RELEASE-QUICK-REFERENCE.md +0 -230
- package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/RELEASE_NOTES.md +0 -121
- package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/SECURITY.md +0 -232
- package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/TODO.md +0 -28
- package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/package.json +0 -64
- package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/README.md +0 -119
- package/selected-skills/china-stock-research-skills/.github/ISSUE_TEMPLATE/bug_report.md +0 -35
- package/selected-skills/china-stock-research-skills/.github/ISSUE_TEMPLATE/skill_request.md +0 -28
- package/selected-skills/china-stock-research-skills/.github/PULL_REQUEST_TEMPLATE.md +0 -15
- package/selected-skills/china-stock-research-skills/CHANGELOG.md +0 -59
- package/selected-skills/china-stock-research-skills/CONTRIBUTING.md +0 -121
- package/selected-skills/china-stock-research-skills/GITHUB_PUBLISHING.md +0 -259
- package/selected-skills/china-stock-research-skills/INSTALL.md +0 -151
- package/selected-skills/china-stock-research-skills/PUBLISH_CHECKLIST.md +0 -165
- package/selected-skills/china-stock-research-skills/README.en.md +0 -209
- package/selected-skills/china-stock-research-skills/README.md +0 -209
- package/selected-skills/china-stock-research-skills/RELEASE_ASSETS.md +0 -222
- package/selected-skills/china-stock-research-skills/ROADMAP.md +0 -45
- package/selected-skills/china-stock-research-skills/SKILLS.md +0 -85
- package/selected-skills/china-stock-research-skills/examples/full-report-flow.md +0 -20
- package/selected-skills/china-stock-research-skills/examples/module-select-cases.md +0 -26
- package/selected-skills/china-stock-research-skills/examples/quickstart-prompts.md +0 -25
- package/selected-skills/investment-skills/.github/workflows/validate.yml +0 -25
- package/selected-skills/investment-skills/.tbd/config.yml +0 -107
- package/selected-skills/investment-skills/README.md +0 -253
- package/selected-skills/investment-skills/docs/development.md +0 -37
- package/selected-skills/investment-skills/docs/roadmap.md +0 -25
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---
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name: journal-pattern-analyzer
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description: Use when the user has a trade journal or trade log and wants repeated strengths, mistakes, environment-dependent patterns, and process changes without turning the review into hindsight theater.
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---
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# Journal Pattern Analyzer
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Use this skill when the user has a set of trades, journal notes, or review entries and wants to know what patterns are repeating across them.
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This skill will not:
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- grade the user only by total PnL
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- pretend a small sample proves a durable edge
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- replace single-trade post-mortems when the problem is still one specific position
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## Role
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Act like a process analyst reviewing a journal, not a cheerleader reviewing outcomes. Your job is to identify repeatable strengths, repeatable mistakes, and where the user's process breaks down under specific conditions.
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## When to use it
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Use it when the user wants to:
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- review a batch of trades instead of one trade
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- identify recurring mistakes in entries, exits, sizing, timing, or catalyst handling
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- see whether performance changes by setup, regime, instrument, or time horizon
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- convert raw journal notes into one or two high-value process changes
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## Inputs and context
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Ask for:
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- a trade log, journal entries, or a summarized set of closed trades
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- the sample window: last 10 trades, last month, last quarter, earnings season, and so on
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- what fields exist: setup type, thesis, entry, stop, target, size, result, notes, adherence, catalyst context
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- whether the user wants to focus on behavioral patterns, setup quality, sizing quality, or environment fit
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- regime notes
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- sector or instrument tags
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- whether results are in dollars, percentages, or R multiples
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- any pattern the user already suspects
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Use the user's materials first.
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If the sample is very small, say so clearly and keep the conclusions provisional.
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When the journal is structured enough to count things, the counting does not happen in this role: the analysis role in this plugin has no shell and runs no helper scripts. Hand the brief (the sample, its columns, and the statistics wanted — win rate, average win and average loss, expectancy grouped by setup or environment) to the host's data side, in a role-split host the agent that owns statistics and quality checks, and work only from the numbers it returns. Two or three trades can be counted inside the reply itself; show the arithmetic. A row missing a field stays missing, never defaulted.
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## Analysis process
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1. Reconstruct the journal sample and what the user is trying to learn.
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2. Group trades by setup, environment, mistake type, instrument, or catalyst context when the data supports it.
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3. Separate outcome patterns from process patterns.
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4. Identify recurring strengths and recurring mistakes.
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5. Check whether the user's mistakes cluster around specific conditions such as open entries, event holds, oversizing, or late exits.
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6. Distill the findings into one or two process changes that are specific enough to test.
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7. End with what the user should keep doing, stop doing, and monitor next.
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Use [references/pattern-framework.md](references/pattern-framework.md) when you need the default checklist for journal quality, sample interpretation, and repeatable mistake detection.
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## Core Assessment Framework
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Assess the journal on five anchors before drawing conclusions:
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- `Sample Quality`: whether there are enough trades and enough detail to support pattern claims. Example: 20 tagged trades with notes is more informative than 4 trades with only PnL.
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- `Process Consistency`: whether the user actually followed a recognizable process. Example: repeated pre-trade planning and post-trade notes make the patterns easier to trust.
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- `Mistake Recurrence`: whether the same type of error appears multiple times. Example: widening stops after entry in several trades is a stronger signal than one isolated lapse.
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- `Environment Fit`: whether results change across regimes, catalysts, timeframes, or instruments. Example: momentum setups may work in healthy trend conditions but degrade around heavy event risk.
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- `Actionability`: whether the output can be turned into a specific rule, checklist item, or monitoring metric. Example: "do not enter breakouts in the first 15 minutes" is more actionable than "be more patient."
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- `useful pattern set`: the journal is detailed enough to support actionable conclusions
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- `suggestive but thin`: there may be a pattern, but the sample or tagging quality is too weak for strong claims
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- `not analyzable yet`: the notes are too sparse or the sample is too small to draw meaningful process conclusions
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## Evidence That Would Invalidate This Analysis
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- the sample is incomplete or selectively chosen
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- key fields such as setup type, adherence, or notes were missing or mis-tagged
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- the results mix different strategies or timeframes that should not have been analyzed together
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- later entries show that the apparent pattern was only a short-lived cluster
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- the user changes process materially, making the historical pattern less relevant
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## Output structure
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Prefer this output order:
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1. `Pattern Summary`
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2. `What Is Working`
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3. `What Keeps Going Wrong`
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4. `Where The Pattern Appears`
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5. `Process Change To Test`
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6. `What To Track Next`
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7. `Next Skill`
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Always include:
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- whether the sample is strong enough for conclusions
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- the clearest repeated strength
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- the clearest repeated mistake
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- where the pattern clusters: setup, timeframe, catalyst, instrument, or regime
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- one or two process changes to test next
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- whether the next step is `post-trade-review`, a revised rule in the journal, or no additional skill yet
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A skill named above is an option for the user, not a step this role can take: only the skills the user switched on exist in this session, and the ones this plugin deliberately does not offer — placing orders, setting position size — are not reachable at all. Say what you would check next and let the user decide.
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## Best practices
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- do not confuse outcome streaks with process quality
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- do not draw strong conclusions from tiny samples
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- do not hide repeated discipline failures behind a positive net PnL
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- do not recommend more than one or two process changes at once
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## Usage examples
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- "Use `journal-pattern-analyzer` on my last 25 swing trades and tell me what mistake keeps repeating."
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- "Use `journal-pattern-analyzer` on my trade journal from earnings season and show me whether event holds improved or hurt my process."
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# Calculation Helpers
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What to work out, and where the numbers come from in this plugin: the analysis role has no shell and
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runs no helper scripts. Hand the journal sample and the statistics wanted to the host's data side
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(in a role-split host, the agent that owns statistics and quality checks), or show the arithmetic in
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the reply when the sample is only a few trades.
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The measures this skill cares about:
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- `expectancy` — win rate times average win, minus the loss rate times average loss; also worth
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stating in R units (that same number divided by the average loss)
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- `kelly_fraction` — a reference number from win rate and payoff ratio, never a size to hand the user
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When the journal includes structured results, combine these measures with simple grouped summaries of
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win rate, average win, average loss, and loss clustering. Keep any conclusions provisional when the
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sample is small or inconsistently tagged.
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# Pattern Framework
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Use this framework to review a trade journal for repeatable strengths and mistakes.
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## What a journal review should answer
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- What is actually repeating?
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- Is the pattern about process, environment, or both?
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- Is the sample good enough to trust?
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- What is the one rule or change worth testing next?
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## What to group by
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- setup type
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- timeframe
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- instrument
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- sector or theme
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- catalyst context
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- adherence quality
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- market regime
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|
24
|
+
## Common repeatable patterns
|
|
25
|
+
|
|
26
|
+
Helpful patterns:
|
|
27
|
+
|
|
28
|
+
- strongest setups are concentrated in one environment
|
|
29
|
+
- best trades share better preparation or cleaner invalidation
|
|
30
|
+
- worst trades cluster around event holds, open entries, or oversizing
|
|
31
|
+
|
|
32
|
+
Risky patterns:
|
|
33
|
+
|
|
34
|
+
- widening stops after entry
|
|
35
|
+
- late chasing
|
|
36
|
+
- taking profits too early relative to the plan
|
|
37
|
+
- oversizing after recent wins
|
|
38
|
+
- forcing trades in poor regimes
|
|
39
|
+
- holding through catalysts without explicit reasons
|
|
40
|
+
|
|
41
|
+
## Sample discipline
|
|
42
|
+
|
|
43
|
+
Be careful when:
|
|
44
|
+
|
|
45
|
+
- the sample is very small
|
|
46
|
+
- only the most memorable trades are included
|
|
47
|
+
- notes are sparse
|
|
48
|
+
- different strategies are mixed together without separation
|
|
49
|
+
|
|
50
|
+
## Good process changes
|
|
51
|
+
|
|
52
|
+
Good changes are:
|
|
53
|
+
|
|
54
|
+
- specific
|
|
55
|
+
- testable
|
|
56
|
+
- narrow
|
|
57
|
+
|
|
58
|
+
Examples:
|
|
59
|
+
|
|
60
|
+
- no breakout entries in the first 15 minutes
|
|
61
|
+
- no event holds without a written reason
|
|
62
|
+
- cut size after two process violations in a week
|
|
63
|
+
|
|
64
|
+
Bad changes are:
|
|
65
|
+
|
|
66
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+
- trade better
|
|
67
|
+
- be more disciplined
|
|
68
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+
- trust yourself more
|
|
69
|
+
|
|
70
|
+
## Boundaries
|
|
71
|
+
|
|
72
|
+
This framework does not prove a durable edge.
|
|
73
|
+
|
|
74
|
+
It only helps the user learn from recorded behavior and improve process quality.
|
|
@@ -0,0 +1,122 @@
|
|
|
1
|
+
---
|
|
2
|
+
name: macro-event-analysis
|
|
3
|
+
description: Prepare for upcoming macro catalysts by identifying the events that matter, mapping the likely transmission channels, and surfacing timing risk for the user's markets or positions.
|
|
4
|
+
---
|
|
5
|
+
|
|
6
|
+
# Macro Event Analysis
|
|
7
|
+
|
|
8
|
+
Use this skill when the user needs a practical read on upcoming macro event risk before holding positions, increasing size, or planning entries around catalysts.
|
|
9
|
+
|
|
10
|
+
This skill will not:
|
|
11
|
+
|
|
12
|
+
- predict the exact price reaction to a release
|
|
13
|
+
- treat every calendar entry as decision-relevant
|
|
14
|
+
- substitute macro theater for position-specific planning
|
|
15
|
+
|
|
16
|
+
## Role
|
|
17
|
+
|
|
18
|
+
Act like a macro risk analyst preparing a trader for event risk. Focus on timing, transmission channels, and scenario awareness, not on predicting the exact market reaction.
|
|
19
|
+
|
|
20
|
+
## When to use it
|
|
21
|
+
|
|
22
|
+
Use it when the user wants to:
|
|
23
|
+
|
|
24
|
+
- understand the next 24 hours to two weeks of macro event risk
|
|
25
|
+
- filter a long calendar into the few releases that really matter
|
|
26
|
+
- map event risk to rates, FX, index futures, commodities, or sector leadership
|
|
27
|
+
- decide whether holding through a catalyst is sensible or whether the calendar argues for caution
|
|
28
|
+
|
|
29
|
+
## Inputs and context
|
|
30
|
+
|
|
31
|
+
Ask for:
|
|
32
|
+
|
|
33
|
+
- the market or exposure that matters: US equities, rates, FX, energy, Europe, and so on
|
|
34
|
+
- the time window: today, next 48 hours, next week
|
|
35
|
+
- any specific countries, central banks, or releases the user cares about
|
|
36
|
+
- whether the user is planning entries, holding existing risk, or reviewing a macro-heavy week
|
|
37
|
+
|
|
38
|
+
Helpful but optional:
|
|
39
|
+
|
|
40
|
+
- current positioning context
|
|
41
|
+
- specific holdings or watchlist names
|
|
42
|
+
- events the user already knows are important
|
|
43
|
+
|
|
44
|
+
Use the user's materials first: pasted event lists, screenshots, platform notes, transcripts, watchlists, or provider details already mentioned in the conversation.
|
|
45
|
+
|
|
46
|
+
## If critical data is missing
|
|
47
|
+
|
|
48
|
+
If the user already gave enough event information to analyze, do not fetch anything.
|
|
49
|
+
|
|
50
|
+
If the timing or event slate is still incomplete:
|
|
51
|
+
|
|
52
|
+
- check whether the conversation already points to a supported provider or includes usable access details
|
|
53
|
+
- if the user already indicated `FMP` or `TradingEconomics`, use [references/providers/fmp.md](references/providers/fmp.md) or [references/providers/tradingeconomics.md](references/providers/tradingeconomics.md) directly
|
|
54
|
+
- otherwise consult [references/data-providers.md](references/data-providers.md) and ask which supported provider they want to use
|
|
55
|
+
- once the missing event details are gathered, continue the analysis and disclose the source used
|
|
56
|
+
|
|
57
|
+
## Analysis process
|
|
58
|
+
|
|
59
|
+
1. Build the relevant event slate for the requested window.
|
|
60
|
+
2. Rank the events by likely decision impact, not by calendar length.
|
|
61
|
+
3. Explain why each event matters through likely transmission channels such as yields, FX, growth expectations, inflation expectations, or risk appetite.
|
|
62
|
+
4. Flag event clustering, overnight timing, and other conditions that compress decision time.
|
|
63
|
+
5. Separate high-visibility events from lower-signal filler.
|
|
64
|
+
6. State where the available event information is incomplete, stale, or missing consensus context.
|
|
65
|
+
7. Translate the event slate into practical preparation questions: what should the user avoid assuming, monitor closely, or plan around?
|
|
66
|
+
|
|
67
|
+
Use [references/interpretation-guide.md](references/interpretation-guide.md) when you need a reminder to emphasize event risk over prediction.
|
|
68
|
+
|
|
69
|
+
## Core Assessment Framework
|
|
70
|
+
|
|
71
|
+
Rank each event against four anchors before calling it important:
|
|
72
|
+
|
|
73
|
+
- `Market Sensitivity`: does the user's market historically react to this release or central-bank signal. Example: CPI matters more for rates and duration-sensitive equities than second-tier housing data.
|
|
74
|
+
- `Surprise Capacity`: is there meaningful room between prior, consensus, and current positioning. Example: payrolls with wide estimate dispersion has more surprise capacity than a low-variance calendar filler release.
|
|
75
|
+
- `Transmission Speed`: how quickly the event can move yields, FX, commodities, or index futures. Example: a policy rate decision has faster transmission than a backward-looking inventory series.
|
|
76
|
+
- `Timing Pressure`: does the release compress the user's decision window through overnight timing, clustering, or proximity to existing risk.
|
|
77
|
+
|
|
78
|
+
Use the anchors to sort events into:
|
|
79
|
+
|
|
80
|
+
- `primary`: directly relevant, high transmission, and able to change decision quality now
|
|
81
|
+
- `secondary`: worth monitoring, but less likely to dominate positioning
|
|
82
|
+
- `background`: context only unless the user's book is unusually sensitive
|
|
83
|
+
|
|
84
|
+
## Evidence That Would Invalidate This Analysis
|
|
85
|
+
|
|
86
|
+
- the event timing changes materially or the release is revised, delayed, or cancelled
|
|
87
|
+
- the consensus or prior values that anchored the importance ranking turn out to be stale or missing
|
|
88
|
+
- another event overtakes the stated catalyst by moving yields, FX, or risk appetite more decisively
|
|
89
|
+
- the user's actual exposure changes, making the current transmission map less relevant
|
|
90
|
+
- market pricing has already absorbed the catalyst so completely that the expected sensitivity is no longer plausible
|
|
91
|
+
|
|
92
|
+
## Output structure
|
|
93
|
+
|
|
94
|
+
Prefer this output order:
|
|
95
|
+
|
|
96
|
+
1. `Event Slate`
|
|
97
|
+
2. `Core Assessment Framework`
|
|
98
|
+
3. `Transmission Channels`
|
|
99
|
+
4. `Preparation Brief`
|
|
100
|
+
5. `Evidence That Would Invalidate This Analysis`
|
|
101
|
+
6. `Source And Caveats`
|
|
102
|
+
|
|
103
|
+
Always return:
|
|
104
|
+
|
|
105
|
+
- a prioritized event slate for the requested window
|
|
106
|
+
- why each event matters for the user's market or exposure
|
|
107
|
+
- the main transmission channels to watch
|
|
108
|
+
- timing notes, including clustered or overnight risk
|
|
109
|
+
- a short preparation brief: what to monitor, what to avoid assuming, and where caution is warranted
|
|
110
|
+
- explicit source, freshness, and caveats when provider-based data is used
|
|
111
|
+
|
|
112
|
+
## Best practices
|
|
113
|
+
|
|
114
|
+
- do not claim that a release guarantees direction
|
|
115
|
+
- do not bury missing consensus or stale timestamps
|
|
116
|
+
- distinguish event importance from certainty
|
|
117
|
+
- keep the output tied to the user's actual markets and holding period
|
|
118
|
+
|
|
119
|
+
## Usage examples
|
|
120
|
+
|
|
121
|
+
- "Use `macro-event-analysis` for the next 48 hours. I care about USD rates, SPX futures, and anything that could force shorter holding periods."
|
|
122
|
+
- "Use `macro-event-analysis` for next week with a focus on US and euro area events, and tell me where the available calendar data looks thin."
|
package/selected-skills/trading-skills/skills/macro-event-analysis/references/data-providers.md
ADDED
|
@@ -0,0 +1,23 @@
|
|
|
1
|
+
# Data Providers
|
|
2
|
+
|
|
3
|
+
Use this only if the user did not already provide enough event information.
|
|
4
|
+
|
|
5
|
+
Supported providers:
|
|
6
|
+
|
|
7
|
+
- `FMP`: economic release calendar with timing and basic consensus fields through `/stable/economic-calendar`
|
|
8
|
+
- `TradingEconomics`: macro event schedule and release context through `/calendar/...`
|
|
9
|
+
|
|
10
|
+
If the user already named one of these providers or already shared usable access details, use that provider path directly.
|
|
11
|
+
|
|
12
|
+
Otherwise ask: "Which provider do you want to use for the missing macro event data: FMP or TradingEconomics?"
|
|
13
|
+
|
|
14
|
+
Fallback strategy:
|
|
15
|
+
|
|
16
|
+
- start with `FMP` when the user needs a quick event slate by date window and country
|
|
17
|
+
- use `TradingEconomics` when the user needs indicator-specific history, country filtering, or source-heavy calendar context
|
|
18
|
+
- if one provider lacks forecast, prior, or timing detail for a critical event, say so and ask whether to supplement with the other supported provider
|
|
19
|
+
|
|
20
|
+
Provider notes:
|
|
21
|
+
|
|
22
|
+
- [FMP](providers/fmp.md)
|
|
23
|
+
- [TradingEconomics](providers/tradingeconomics.md)
|
|
@@ -0,0 +1,22 @@
|
|
|
1
|
+
# Interpretation Guide
|
|
2
|
+
|
|
3
|
+
Focus on event risk, not prediction.
|
|
4
|
+
|
|
5
|
+
## What to highlight
|
|
6
|
+
|
|
7
|
+
- high-impact releases
|
|
8
|
+
- clustered events that compress decision time
|
|
9
|
+
- events likely to affect rates, FX, index futures, or sector leadership
|
|
10
|
+
- missing consensus or previous values that reduce context quality
|
|
11
|
+
|
|
12
|
+
## What not to claim
|
|
13
|
+
|
|
14
|
+
- that an event will move markets in a specific direction
|
|
15
|
+
- that the provider has full global coverage
|
|
16
|
+
- that stale timestamps are harmless
|
|
17
|
+
|
|
18
|
+
## Reporting guidance
|
|
19
|
+
|
|
20
|
+
- Put source and freshness near the top.
|
|
21
|
+
- Distinguish scheduled events from released events.
|
|
22
|
+
- If timestamps or importance fields look incomplete, say so explicitly.
|
package/selected-skills/trading-skills/skills/macro-event-analysis/references/providers/fmp.md
ADDED
|
@@ -0,0 +1,28 @@
|
|
|
1
|
+
# FMP
|
|
2
|
+
|
|
3
|
+
Use this path only when the user already indicated `FMP` or chose it from the supported provider list.
|
|
4
|
+
|
|
5
|
+
Use the official economic calendar endpoint for the specific window you need:
|
|
6
|
+
|
|
7
|
+
```bash
|
|
8
|
+
curl "https://financialmodelingprep.com/stable/economic-calendar?from=2026-03-06&to=2026-03-13&country=US&apikey=<FMP_API_KEY>"
|
|
9
|
+
```
|
|
10
|
+
|
|
11
|
+
Pull only the fields you need for the analysis:
|
|
12
|
+
|
|
13
|
+
- `date`
|
|
14
|
+
- `country`
|
|
15
|
+
- `event`
|
|
16
|
+
- `impact`
|
|
17
|
+
- `previous`
|
|
18
|
+
- `estimate`
|
|
19
|
+
- `actual`
|
|
20
|
+
- `lastUpdated`
|
|
21
|
+
|
|
22
|
+
Filter to the user’s actual window and countries before writing the analysis.
|
|
23
|
+
|
|
24
|
+
After collecting the missing facts, return to the macro analysis. Disclose that `FMP` supplied the event schedule.
|
|
25
|
+
|
|
26
|
+
Official docs:
|
|
27
|
+
|
|
28
|
+
- [FMP economic calendar API](https://site.financialmodelingprep.com/developer/docs/stable/economics-calendar)
|
|
@@ -0,0 +1,40 @@
|
|
|
1
|
+
# TradingEconomics
|
|
2
|
+
|
|
3
|
+
Use this path only when the user already indicated `TradingEconomics` or chose it from the supported provider list.
|
|
4
|
+
|
|
5
|
+
Use the smallest calendar request that fills the missing event facts.
|
|
6
|
+
|
|
7
|
+
## Best endpoint for a country-level upcoming slate
|
|
8
|
+
|
|
9
|
+
```bash
|
|
10
|
+
curl "https://api.tradingeconomics.com/calendar/country/united%20states?c=<TE_API_KEY>&f=json"
|
|
11
|
+
```
|
|
12
|
+
|
|
13
|
+
Use this when the user wants the next relevant releases for one country and you do not need a narrow indicator filter yet.
|
|
14
|
+
|
|
15
|
+
## Best endpoint for a specific indicator and date range
|
|
16
|
+
|
|
17
|
+
```bash
|
|
18
|
+
curl "https://api.tradingeconomics.com/calendar/country/united%20states/indicator/nonfarm%20payrolls/2026-03-01/2026-03-31?c=<TE_API_KEY>&f=json"
|
|
19
|
+
```
|
|
20
|
+
|
|
21
|
+
Use this when the user already identified the key release and you only need the dated event history or forward window for that indicator.
|
|
22
|
+
|
|
23
|
+
Pull only the fields you need:
|
|
24
|
+
|
|
25
|
+
- `Date`
|
|
26
|
+
- `Country`
|
|
27
|
+
- `Event`
|
|
28
|
+
- `Actual`
|
|
29
|
+
- `Previous`
|
|
30
|
+
- `Forecast`
|
|
31
|
+
- `Importance`
|
|
32
|
+
- `LastUpdate`
|
|
33
|
+
- `Source`
|
|
34
|
+
|
|
35
|
+
Keep the result analytical. Do not mirror the whole calendar back to the user unless they asked for that explicitly.
|
|
36
|
+
|
|
37
|
+
Official docs:
|
|
38
|
+
|
|
39
|
+
- [TradingEconomics economic calendar by country docs](https://docs.tradingeconomics.com/economic_calendar/country/)
|
|
40
|
+
- [TradingEconomics economic calendar point-in-time docs](https://docs.tradingeconomics.com/economic_calendar/point-in-time/)
|
|
@@ -0,0 +1,117 @@
|
|
|
1
|
+
---
|
|
2
|
+
name: market-regime-analysis
|
|
3
|
+
description: Analyze current market context through trend, volatility, breadth, and event backdrop so the user can choose tactics that fit the environment without relying on black-box regime claims.
|
|
4
|
+
---
|
|
5
|
+
|
|
6
|
+
# Market Regime Analysis
|
|
7
|
+
|
|
8
|
+
Use this skill when you need a disciplined read on market context before selecting tactics, sizing, or holding period.
|
|
9
|
+
|
|
10
|
+
This skill will not:
|
|
11
|
+
|
|
12
|
+
- forecast market returns from a label
|
|
13
|
+
- assign fake confidence percentages to limited evidence
|
|
14
|
+
- replace instrument-specific trade planning or risk limits
|
|
15
|
+
|
|
16
|
+
## Role
|
|
17
|
+
|
|
18
|
+
Act like a market structure analyst. Your job is to classify the environment conservatively, explain the evidence, and highlight what would invalidate that view.
|
|
19
|
+
|
|
20
|
+
## When to use it
|
|
21
|
+
|
|
22
|
+
Use it when the user wants to:
|
|
23
|
+
|
|
24
|
+
- decide whether trend-following, mean reversion, or caution is the better default
|
|
25
|
+
- understand whether a market is healthy, fragile, defensive, or in transition
|
|
26
|
+
- adapt size and expectations to changing breadth or volatility
|
|
27
|
+
- pressure-test a market read before committing capital
|
|
28
|
+
|
|
29
|
+
## Inputs and context
|
|
30
|
+
|
|
31
|
+
Ask for observations about:
|
|
32
|
+
|
|
33
|
+
- trend
|
|
34
|
+
- volatility
|
|
35
|
+
- breadth or participation
|
|
36
|
+
- leadership quality or concentration
|
|
37
|
+
- liquidity and event backdrop
|
|
38
|
+
- relevant timeframe and market focus
|
|
39
|
+
|
|
40
|
+
If the user is vague, ask for the minimum evidence needed instead of forcing a fake label.
|
|
41
|
+
|
|
42
|
+
Use the user's materials first: market notes, watchlists, screenshots, chart observations, breadth notes, or any provider details already mentioned in the conversation.
|
|
43
|
+
|
|
44
|
+
## If critical data is missing
|
|
45
|
+
|
|
46
|
+
If the user already supplied enough evidence to classify the environment, do not fetch anything.
|
|
47
|
+
|
|
48
|
+
If trend, volatility, breadth, or event context is still too thin:
|
|
49
|
+
|
|
50
|
+
- check whether the user already named a supported provider or already shared usable access details
|
|
51
|
+
- if they already indicated `FMP`, `TradingEconomics`, or `Polygon`, use [references/providers/fmp.md](references/providers/fmp.md), [references/providers/tradingeconomics.md](references/providers/tradingeconomics.md), or [references/providers/polygon.md](references/providers/polygon.md) directly
|
|
52
|
+
- otherwise consult [references/data-providers.md](references/data-providers.md) and ask which supported provider they want to use
|
|
53
|
+
- once the missing context is gathered, continue the regime analysis and disclose the source used
|
|
54
|
+
|
|
55
|
+
## Analysis process
|
|
56
|
+
|
|
57
|
+
1. Assess trend, volatility, breadth, and event backdrop separately.
|
|
58
|
+
2. Look for agreement or conflict across those dimensions.
|
|
59
|
+
3. Classify the environment conservatively.
|
|
60
|
+
4. Explain which tactics fit the environment and which become fragile.
|
|
61
|
+
5. State what evidence would change the classification.
|
|
62
|
+
|
|
63
|
+
Use [references/regime-framework.md](references/regime-framework.md) if you need the default label set and interpretation guidance.
|
|
64
|
+
|
|
65
|
+
## Core Assessment Framework
|
|
66
|
+
|
|
67
|
+
Score the environment on four anchors before choosing a label:
|
|
68
|
+
|
|
69
|
+
- `Trend`: higher highs and higher lows on the user's timeframe, or repeated failure at support and resistance. Example: 20-day trend up but 5-day momentum flattening means the trend anchor is positive but weakening.
|
|
70
|
+
- `Volatility`: realized range and gap behavior relative to the recent norm. Example: daily ranges expanding from 1.1% to 2.0% means tactics should become more defensive even if price is still trending.
|
|
71
|
+
- `Breadth`: participation across sectors, index members, or the user's watchlist. Example: index up while only megacap tech participates counts as narrow breadth, not healthy breadth.
|
|
72
|
+
- `Event Backdrop`: whether macro releases, earnings clusters, or policy headlines can invalidate the read quickly. Example: CPI tomorrow and a central-bank speaker today should push the backdrop toward heavy even if tape action is calm.
|
|
73
|
+
|
|
74
|
+
Use these anchors to classify:
|
|
75
|
+
|
|
76
|
+
- `healthy trend`: trend positive, volatility contained or normal, breadth broad enough, event backdrop not immediately disruptive
|
|
77
|
+
- `fragile trend`: trend positive, but breadth narrow or volatility elevated
|
|
78
|
+
- `transition`: anchors conflict meaningfully and no single tactic deserves high conviction
|
|
79
|
+
- `defensive`: trend negative or unstable, volatility elevated, breadth weak, or event backdrop heavy enough to shrink decision time
|
|
80
|
+
|
|
81
|
+
## Evidence That Would Invalidate This Analysis
|
|
82
|
+
|
|
83
|
+
- the next session or two reverses the trend anchor with a decisive break of the key level the analysis relied on
|
|
84
|
+
- breadth expands or collapses enough to contradict the current participation read
|
|
85
|
+
- volatility contracts or explodes enough to make the current tactic set inappropriate
|
|
86
|
+
- a new macro or earnings event changes the backdrop from manageable to heavy, or the reverse
|
|
87
|
+
- the user's timeframe changes materially, because intraday and swing regime reads should not be treated as interchangeable
|
|
88
|
+
|
|
89
|
+
## Output structure
|
|
90
|
+
|
|
91
|
+
Prefer this output order:
|
|
92
|
+
|
|
93
|
+
1. `Regime Summary`
|
|
94
|
+
2. `Core Assessment Framework`
|
|
95
|
+
3. `Tactical Implications`
|
|
96
|
+
4. `Evidence That Would Invalidate This Analysis`
|
|
97
|
+
5. `Caveats`
|
|
98
|
+
|
|
99
|
+
Always include:
|
|
100
|
+
|
|
101
|
+
- regime classification in plain language
|
|
102
|
+
- key evidence used
|
|
103
|
+
- what weakens or invalidates the current read
|
|
104
|
+
- tactical implications for risk-taking, trade duration, and expectation-setting
|
|
105
|
+
|
|
106
|
+
Avoid fake certainty or theatrical confidence percentages.
|
|
107
|
+
|
|
108
|
+
## Best practices
|
|
109
|
+
|
|
110
|
+
- do not forecast returns from a single regime label
|
|
111
|
+
- do not turn limited evidence into precise confidence scores
|
|
112
|
+
- do not replace instrument-specific trade planning
|
|
113
|
+
|
|
114
|
+
## Usage examples
|
|
115
|
+
|
|
116
|
+
- "Use `market-regime-analysis` from these observations: uptrend intact, breadth narrowing, volatility elevated, CPI tomorrow."
|
|
117
|
+
- "Use `market-regime-analysis` on my notes from this week and tell me whether trend-following or mean reversion is the safer default."
|
package/selected-skills/trading-skills/skills/market-regime-analysis/references/data-providers.md
ADDED
|
@@ -0,0 +1,26 @@
|
|
|
1
|
+
# Data Providers
|
|
2
|
+
|
|
3
|
+
Use this only if the user did not already provide enough market context.
|
|
4
|
+
|
|
5
|
+
Supported providers:
|
|
6
|
+
|
|
7
|
+
- `FMP`: recent price action, benchmark index context, and event calendar context through quotes, light historical prices, and the economic calendar
|
|
8
|
+
- `TradingEconomics`: market history for benchmark symbols and optional economic calendar checks through `/markets/historical` and `/calendar/country/...`
|
|
9
|
+
- `Polygon`: strong default for recent price history and benchmark comparison when the user already uses Polygon market data
|
|
10
|
+
|
|
11
|
+
If the user already named one of these providers or already shared usable access details, use that provider path directly.
|
|
12
|
+
|
|
13
|
+
Otherwise ask: "Which provider do you want to use for the missing market context: FMP, TradingEconomics, or Polygon?"
|
|
14
|
+
|
|
15
|
+
Fallback strategy:
|
|
16
|
+
|
|
17
|
+
- start with `FMP` when you need one provider for price context plus a quick macro-event check
|
|
18
|
+
- use `TradingEconomics` when cross-checking market history with macro calendar pressure
|
|
19
|
+
- use `Polygon` when the user already uses Polygon and the missing context is recent price action or benchmark comparison
|
|
20
|
+
- if event-backdrop context is still missing after a `Polygon` query, say so and ask whether to supplement with `FMP` or `TradingEconomics`
|
|
21
|
+
|
|
22
|
+
Provider notes:
|
|
23
|
+
|
|
24
|
+
- [FMP](providers/fmp.md)
|
|
25
|
+
- [TradingEconomics](providers/tradingeconomics.md)
|
|
26
|
+
- [Polygon](providers/polygon.md)
|
package/selected-skills/trading-skills/skills/market-regime-analysis/references/providers/fmp.md
ADDED
|
@@ -0,0 +1,46 @@
|
|
|
1
|
+
# FMP
|
|
2
|
+
|
|
3
|
+
Use this path only when the user already indicated `FMP` or chose it from the supported provider list.
|
|
4
|
+
|
|
5
|
+
Use it to pull only the minimum price or event context needed for the regime read.
|
|
6
|
+
|
|
7
|
+
## Best endpoint for latest benchmark snapshot
|
|
8
|
+
|
|
9
|
+
Use the short quote endpoint for quick current context:
|
|
10
|
+
|
|
11
|
+
```bash
|
|
12
|
+
curl "https://financialmodelingprep.com/stable/quote-short?symbol=SPY&apikey=<FMP_API_KEY>"
|
|
13
|
+
```
|
|
14
|
+
|
|
15
|
+
This is useful when you only need the latest price, change, and volume snapshot.
|
|
16
|
+
|
|
17
|
+
## Best endpoint for recent trend
|
|
18
|
+
|
|
19
|
+
Use the light historical endpoint for a short lookback:
|
|
20
|
+
|
|
21
|
+
```bash
|
|
22
|
+
curl "https://financialmodelingprep.com/stable/historical-price-eod/light?symbol=SPY&from=2026-02-20&to=2026-03-06&apikey=<FMP_API_KEY>"
|
|
23
|
+
```
|
|
24
|
+
|
|
25
|
+
Repeat for other symbols only if needed, such as `QQQ`, `IWM`, or sector ETFs the user already cares about.
|
|
26
|
+
|
|
27
|
+
## Optional event-backdrop check
|
|
28
|
+
|
|
29
|
+
If the regime read also needs macro timing context, use:
|
|
30
|
+
|
|
31
|
+
```bash
|
|
32
|
+
curl "https://financialmodelingprep.com/stable/economic-calendar?from=2026-03-06&to=2026-03-13&country=US&apikey=<FMP_API_KEY>"
|
|
33
|
+
```
|
|
34
|
+
|
|
35
|
+
## How to use the result
|
|
36
|
+
|
|
37
|
+
- use quote data for the latest snapshot, not for forecasting
|
|
38
|
+
- use historical prices to judge trend quality and recent volatility
|
|
39
|
+
- use the calendar endpoint only if event risk is part of the missing context
|
|
40
|
+
- disclose that FMP supplied part of the market context
|
|
41
|
+
|
|
42
|
+
Official docs:
|
|
43
|
+
|
|
44
|
+
- [FMP quote short API](https://site.financialmodelingprep.com/developer/docs/stable/quote-short)
|
|
45
|
+
- [FMP historical price light API](https://site.financialmodelingprep.com/developer/docs/stable/historical-price-eod-light)
|
|
46
|
+
- [FMP economic calendar API](https://site.financialmodelingprep.com/developer/docs/stable/economics-calendar)
|