@v587d/capital-generation 2.6.5 → 2.7.0
This diff represents the content of publicly available package versions that have been released to one of the supported registries. The information contained in this diff is provided for informational purposes only and reflects changes between package versions as they appear in their respective public registries.
- package/CHANGELOG.md +49 -0
- package/README.md +79 -26
- package/THIRD_PARTY_NOTICES.md +43 -0
- package/capital-config/client.js +18 -2
- package/capital-config/client.src.cjs +161 -20
- package/capital-config/index.js +10 -0
- package/capital-config/package.json +1 -1
- package/capital-watchlist/client.js +48 -7
- package/capital-watchlist/client.src.cjs +383 -66
- package/capital-watchlist/holding-rules.js +64 -0
- package/capital-watchlist/index.js +117 -2
- package/capital-watchlist/package.json +2 -1
- package/chart-ui/package.json +1 -1
- package/lib/agents/selected-skills-provider.d.ts +26 -0
- package/lib/agents/selected-skills-provider.js +99 -0
- package/lib/index.d.ts +37 -0
- package/lib/index.js +45 -11
- package/lib/time/tools.d.ts +6 -0
- package/lib/time/tools.js +6 -1
- package/lib/watchlist/tools.d.ts +52 -0
- package/lib/watchlist/tools.js +146 -0
- package/lib/web-retriever/local-fetch.d.ts +1 -1
- package/lib/web-retriever/local-fetch.js +1 -1
- package/lib/web-retriever/wind-client.d.ts +1 -1
- package/lib/web-retriever/wind-client.js +1 -1
- package/package.json +12 -3
- package/preset/capital-generation/agent.patch.yml +7 -0
- package/preset/capital-generation/skills/capital-equity-research/SKILL.md +45 -0
- package/preset/capital-generation/skills/capital-event-impact/SKILL.md +29 -0
- package/preset/capital-generation/skills/capital-portfolio-review/SKILL.md +29 -0
- package/selected-skills/README.md +44 -0
- package/selected-skills/catalog.js +181 -0
- package/selected-skills/china-stock-research-skills/.github/ISSUE_TEMPLATE/bug_report.md +35 -0
- package/selected-skills/china-stock-research-skills/.github/ISSUE_TEMPLATE/skill_request.md +28 -0
- package/selected-skills/china-stock-research-skills/.github/PULL_REQUEST_TEMPLATE.md +15 -0
- package/selected-skills/china-stock-research-skills/CHANGELOG.md +59 -0
- package/selected-skills/china-stock-research-skills/CONTRIBUTING.md +121 -0
- package/selected-skills/china-stock-research-skills/GITHUB_PUBLISHING.md +259 -0
- package/selected-skills/china-stock-research-skills/INSTALL.md +151 -0
- package/selected-skills/china-stock-research-skills/LICENSE +21 -0
- package/selected-skills/china-stock-research-skills/PUBLISH_CHECKLIST.md +165 -0
- package/selected-skills/china-stock-research-skills/README.en.md +209 -0
- package/selected-skills/china-stock-research-skills/README.md +209 -0
- package/selected-skills/china-stock-research-skills/RELEASE_ASSETS.md +222 -0
- package/selected-skills/china-stock-research-skills/ROADMAP.md +45 -0
- package/selected-skills/china-stock-research-skills/SKILLS.md +85 -0
- package/selected-skills/china-stock-research-skills/UPSTREAM.md +11 -0
- package/selected-skills/china-stock-research-skills/examples/full-report-flow.md +20 -0
- package/selected-skills/china-stock-research-skills/examples/module-select-cases.md +26 -0
- package/selected-skills/china-stock-research-skills/examples/quickstart-prompts.md +25 -0
- package/selected-skills/china-stock-research-skills/skills/business-decomposition-order-quality/SKILL.md +55 -0
- package/selected-skills/china-stock-research-skills/skills/business-decomposition-order-quality/references/idc-order-ledger-guide.md +34 -0
- package/selected-skills/china-stock-research-skills/skills/business-decomposition-order-quality/references/order-quality-checklist.md +16 -0
- package/selected-skills/china-stock-research-skills/skills/china-stock-research-orchestrator/SKILL.md +75 -0
- package/selected-skills/china-stock-research-skills/skills/china-stock-research-orchestrator/references/final-output-contract.md +62 -0
- package/selected-skills/china-stock-research-skills/skills/china-stock-research-orchestrator/references/routing-matrix.md +34 -0
- package/selected-skills/china-stock-research-skills/skills/china-stock-research-orchestrator/references/sector-overlay-escalation-rules.md +38 -0
- package/selected-skills/china-stock-research-skills/skills/financial-health/SKILL.md +54 -0
- package/selected-skills/china-stock-research-skills/skills/financial-health/references/idc-balance-sheet-stress-guide.md +31 -0
- package/selected-skills/china-stock-research-skills/skills/financial-health/references/red-flag-checklist.md +14 -0
- package/selected-skills/china-stock-research-skills/skills/industry-competition-moat/SKILL.md +54 -0
- package/selected-skills/china-stock-research-skills/skills/industry-competition-moat/references/idc-value-chain-and-peers.md +42 -0
- package/selected-skills/china-stock-research-skills/skills/industry-competition-moat/references/moat-grid.md +13 -0
- package/selected-skills/china-stock-research-skills/skills/risk-warning-catalysts/SKILL.md +54 -0
- package/selected-skills/china-stock-research-skills/skills/risk-warning-catalysts/references/idc-monitoring-indicators.md +33 -0
- package/selected-skills/china-stock-research-skills/skills/risk-warning-catalysts/references/monitoring-dashboard.md +25 -0
- package/selected-skills/china-stock-research-skills/skills/shared/references/analysis-pattern-selector.md +24 -0
- package/selected-skills/china-stock-research-skills/skills/shared/references/asset-heavy-ramp-overlay.md +28 -0
- package/selected-skills/china-stock-research-skills/skills/shared/references/business-model-transition-overlay.md +28 -0
- package/selected-skills/china-stock-research-skills/skills/shared/references/citation-standard.md +48 -0
- package/selected-skills/china-stock-research-skills/skills/shared/references/company-disclosure-map.md +37 -0
- package/selected-skills/china-stock-research-skills/skills/shared/references/consumer-channel-brand-overlay.md +29 -0
- package/selected-skills/china-stock-research-skills/skills/shared/references/cyclical-price-driven-overlay.md +29 -0
- package/selected-skills/china-stock-research-skills/skills/shared/references/export-manufacturing-supply-chain-overlay.md +29 -0
- package/selected-skills/china-stock-research-skills/skills/shared/references/financial-kpi-dictionary.md +43 -0
- package/selected-skills/china-stock-research-skills/skills/shared/references/idc-heavy-asset-transition-overlay.md +73 -0
- package/selected-skills/china-stock-research-skills/skills/shared/references/language-output-standard.md +36 -0
- package/selected-skills/china-stock-research-skills/skills/shared/references/project-order-business-overlay.md +28 -0
- package/selected-skills/china-stock-research-skills/skills/shared/references/regulated-healthcare-policy-overlay.md +29 -0
- package/selected-skills/china-stock-research-skills/skills/shared/references/research-output-template.md +50 -0
- package/selected-skills/china-stock-research-skills/skills/shared/references/sector-adaptation-checklist.md +42 -0
- package/selected-skills/china-stock-research-skills/skills/shared/references/source-registry.md +49 -0
- package/selected-skills/china-stock-research-skills/skills/shared/templates/catalyst-calendar.md +5 -0
- package/selected-skills/china-stock-research-skills/skills/shared/templates/company-fact-sheet.md +25 -0
- package/selected-skills/china-stock-research-skills/skills/shared/templates/evidence-table.md +5 -0
- package/selected-skills/china-stock-research-skills/skills/shared/templates/idc-project-ledger.md +5 -0
- package/selected-skills/china-stock-research-skills/skills/shared/templates/valuation-scenario-table.md +7 -0
- package/selected-skills/china-stock-research-skills/skills/strategy-business-transition/SKILL.md +55 -0
- package/selected-skills/china-stock-research-skills/skills/strategy-business-transition/references/idc-transition-markers.md +27 -0
- package/selected-skills/china-stock-research-skills/skills/strategy-business-transition/references/transition-scorecard.md +13 -0
- package/selected-skills/china-stock-research-skills/skills/valuation-investment-strategy/SKILL.md +55 -0
- package/selected-skills/china-stock-research-skills/skills/valuation-investment-strategy/references/idc-valuation-overlays.md +31 -0
- package/selected-skills/china-stock-research-skills/skills/valuation-investment-strategy/references/method-selection.md +14 -0
- package/selected-skills/investment-skills/.github/workflows/validate.yml +25 -0
- package/selected-skills/investment-skills/.tbd/config.yml +107 -0
- package/selected-skills/investment-skills/LICENSE +21 -0
- package/selected-skills/investment-skills/Makefile +29 -0
- package/selected-skills/investment-skills/README.md +253 -0
- package/selected-skills/investment-skills/UPSTREAM.md +12 -0
- package/selected-skills/investment-skills/docs/development.md +37 -0
- package/selected-skills/investment-skills/docs/roadmap.md +25 -0
- package/selected-skills/investment-skills/skills/buffett-investment-framework/SKILL.md +192 -0
- package/selected-skills/investment-skills/skills/buffett-investment-framework/agents/openai.yaml +4 -0
- package/selected-skills/investment-skills/skills/buffett-investment-framework/references/00-source-key.md +82 -0
- package/selected-skills/investment-skills/skills/buffett-investment-framework/references/01-decision-posture.md +242 -0
- package/selected-skills/investment-skills/skills/buffett-investment-framework/references/02-business-economics.md +188 -0
- package/selected-skills/investment-skills/skills/buffett-investment-framework/references/03-management-governance.md +213 -0
- package/selected-skills/investment-skills/skills/buffett-investment-framework/references/04-financial-reality.md +192 -0
- package/selected-skills/investment-skills/skills/buffett-investment-framework/references/05-valuation.md +166 -0
- package/selected-skills/investment-skills/skills/buffett-investment-framework/references/06-capital-allocation.md +238 -0
- package/selected-skills/investment-skills/skills/buffett-investment-framework/references/07-risk-monitoring.md +189 -0
- package/selected-skills/investment-skills/skills/buffett-investment-framework/references/08-specialized-overlays.md +309 -0
- package/selected-skills/investment-skills/skills/buffett-investment-framework/scripts/framework.py +470 -0
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# Business Economics and Competitive Position
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Use these cards as evidence-bounded analytical prompts derived from Buffett and
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Berkshire writings. Apply them to supplied evidence, preserve each card’s limits, and
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return unresolved findings when prerequisites are missing.
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Read this file when mapping the business, testing moat mechanisms, reinvestment, or
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structural change. Load only the cards selected by the router; do not load the whole
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module by default. Abbreviated corroboration citations resolve in the
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[source key](00-source-key.md).
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## Card Index
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| Card | Decision question |
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| [B01](#b01) | How does a customer dollar become revenue, operating cash, required reinvestment, and distributable owner cash? |
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| [B02](#b02) | What mechanism protects excess returns, and is it widening or eroding? |
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| [B03](#b03) | Do customer behavior, channel position, and realized pricing support durable economics? |
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| [B04](#b04) | Does a non-brand mechanism durably alter delivered cost, customer switching, competitor entry, or network utility? |
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| [B05](#b05) | Will price-taking, excess capacity, and required reinvestment consume apparent earnings or growth? |
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| [B06](#b06) | Can the business deploy material additional capital at attractive normalized returns for long enough to affect owner value? |
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| [B07](#b07) | Is weakness temporary and bounded, or caused by persistent economics that additional effort and capital are unlikely to repair? |
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## Complete Cards
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<a id="b01"></a>
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### B01 — Map How the Business Earns and Converts a Dollar
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- **Decision question:** How does a customer dollar become revenue, operating cash,
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required reinvestment, and distributable owner cash?
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- **Guidance:** Build a causal model from transaction and unit economics through working
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capital, maintenance, growth funding, and owner cash, then reconcile it to reported
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totals.
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- **Use when:** Initial analysis, a changed business model, unexplained cash conversion,
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or a forecast with unclear operating mechanics.
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- **Analytical actions:** Map revenue drivers, unit economics, and costs; trace required
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and optional reinvestment; reconcile to reported cash and segments.
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- **Output:** A one-page business-model map and dollar-conversion bridge with explicit
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gaps.
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- **Limits:** A coherent map does not prove durability or value; unresolved segment,
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unit, or reinvestment data leave the map unresolved.
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- **Source basis:**
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- **Berkshire Hathaway 2000 annual letter** — *supports*: growth affects value only
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through cash flow economics.
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- **Berkshire Hathaway 1977 annual letter** — *illustrates*: See’s capital light
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earnings growth.
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- **Corroboration:** EWB §V.C; EWB §V.D; OM1996.
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### B02 — Identify a Causal Moat and Track Its Direction
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- **Decision question:** What mechanism protects excess returns, and is it widening or
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eroding?
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- **Guidance:** Name the mechanism, behavior it changes, and economics it protects;
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track direction with business-specific evidence rather than labels.
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- **Use when:** A thesis claims durable quality, excess returns, franchise value, or
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competitive advantage.
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- **Analytical actions:** State the mechanism and protected benefit; describe the
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strongest plausible attack; track strengthening and erosion indicators.
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- **Output:** A causal moat map with mechanism, protected economics, attack path,
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indicators, and unresolved links.
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- **Limits:** Reputation, market share, and historical returns do not alone prove a
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moat.
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- **Berkshire Hathaway 2005 annual letter** — *defines*: widening the moat.
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- **Berkshire Hathaway 1995 annual letter** — *illustrates*: GEICO direct distribution
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created structural cost advantage.
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- **Corroboration:** BH1981; BH2007; BH2014; LOW ch.3 (GEICO cost-advantage discovery).
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### B03 — Test Pricing Power, Brand, and Distribution Strength
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support durable economics?
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- **Guidance:** Treat brand and distribution as mechanisms only when price realization,
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retention, volume, utility, and channel evidence show a durable behavioral effect.
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- **Use when:** Brand, loyalty, distribution, or pricing power is central to the thesis.
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- **Analytical actions:** Decompose price, volume, mix, retention, and elasticity;
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- **Output:** A pricing-and-distribution scorecard with mechanism evidence,
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alternatives, and direction.
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distribution create protective moats.
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### B04 — Test Cost, Scale, Switching, Network, and Efficient-Scale Advantages
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customer switching, competitor entry, or network utility?
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- **Guidance:** Verify each mechanism through unit-cost, customer, network, or entry
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evidence; do not infer durability from size alone.
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- **Use when:** A thesis rests on low cost, scale, switching costs, network effects,
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or bypass it; track switching, network density, entry, and delivered cost.
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- **Output:** A mechanism-specific advantage table with causal link, rival response,
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durability, and unresolved evidence.
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- **Limits:** Scale can add complexity, switching can be inertia, networks can reverse,
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and temporary efficiency is not a moat.
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- **Source basis:**
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- **Berkshire Hathaway 1995 annual letter** — *illustrates*: GEICO direct distribution
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created structural cost advantage.
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- **Berkshire Hathaway 2007 annual letter** — *defines*: enduring economic moat.
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- **Corroboration:** CM50-2015; BH1981; BH2014.
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### B05 — Distinguish a Franchise from a Commodity or Capital Trap
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- **Decision question:** Will price-taking, excess capacity, and required reinvestment
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consume apparent earnings or growth?
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- **Guidance:** Diagnose whether returns come from differentiated value or favorable
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cycle and price while replacement and competitive capital absorb owner cash.
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- **Use when:** Commodity, manufacturing, transport, capital-intensive, or rapidly
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growing businesses with volatile prices or persistent reinvestment.
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- **Analytical actions:** Measure replacement capital, working capital, utilization, and
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incremental returns; test price-taking and capacity; identify low-cost or regulated
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exceptions.
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- **Output:** A franchise-versus-capital-trap diagnosis with capital burden, industry
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mechanism, exceptions, and unresolved data.
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- **Limits:** A low-cost producer or fairly regulated asset can be viable; one weak
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cycle does not establish a trap.
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- **Source basis:**
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- **Berkshire Hathaway 1978 annual letter** — *supports*: commodity capital intensity
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depresses returns.
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- **Berkshire Hathaway 1982 annual letter** — *supports*: commodity overcapacity
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drives poor profitability.
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- **Corroboration:** EWB §I.C; OM1996; BH1981; BH2023.
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### B06 — Judge the Reinvestment Runway from Normalized Capital Returns
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- **Decision question:** Can the business deploy material additional capital at
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attractive normalized returns for long enough to affect owner value?
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- **Guidance:** Separate returns on required from incremental capital, then test the
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scale, duration, funding, and durability of the prospective runway.
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- **Use when:** Growth valuation, retained-earnings analysis, or a quality claim based
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on historical returns.
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- **Analytical actions:** Measure normalized unleveraged returns; estimate deployable
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capital and funding; stress return decay with scale and competition.
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- **Output:** A reinvestment-runway schedule showing return evidence, deployable
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capital, duration, decay assumptions, and unresolved bounds.
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+
- **Limits:** Historical returns do not prove future opportunity; neither reinvestment
|
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+
nor distribution alone establishes security value.
|
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156
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+
- **Source basis:**
|
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157
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+
- **Berkshire Hathaway 1992 annual letter** — *supports*: best and worst businesses by
|
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158
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+
incremental capital returns.
|
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159
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+
- **Berkshire Hathaway 2007 annual letter** — *qualifies*: scale prevents repetition
|
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160
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+
of Berkshire past returns.
|
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161
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+
- **Corroboration:** EWB §III.C; OM1996; BH2014; BH2023.
|
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162
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+
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163
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+
<a id="b07"></a>
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164
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+
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165
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### B07 — Separate Cyclical Setbacks from Structural or Turnaround Traps
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+
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167
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+
- **Decision question:** Is weakness temporary and bounded, or caused by persistent
|
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+
economics that additional effort and capital are unlikely to repair?
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169
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+
- **Guidance:** Identify the causal problem and require evidence that it is discrete,
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170
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+
financeable, and repairable before calling it cyclical or a turnaround.
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+
- **Use when:** Depressed earnings, apparent cheapness, restructuring, turnaround
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+
claims, or repeated capital demands.
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173
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+
- **Analytical actions:** Separate cycle, execution, and structural mechanisms; compare
|
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+
prior cycles and peers; define repair conditions, capital, and failure indicators.
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175
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+
- **Output:** A cyclical-versus-structural diagnosis with causal evidence, repair test,
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+
capital requirement, and unresolved classification.
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177
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+
- **Limits:** Poor historical economics are not immutable and exceptional management can
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178
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+
improve a mediocre business.
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+
- **Source basis:**
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+
- **Berkshire Hathaway 1979 annual letter** — *illustrates*: Waumbec cheap turnaround
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181
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+
failed.
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+
- **Berkshire Hathaway 1988 annual letter** — *qualifies*: exceptional management can
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+
overcome mediocre industry economics.
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184
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+
- **Corroboration:** EWB §II.F; OM1996; BH2014; FL2025.
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+
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186
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+
<!-- This document follows common-doc-guidelines.md.
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-->
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# Management, Governance, and Culture
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2
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3
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Use these cards as evidence-bounded analytical prompts derived from Buffett and
|
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4
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+
Berkshire writings. Apply them to supplied evidence, preserve each card’s limits, and
|
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+
return unresolved findings when prerequisites are missing.
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6
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+
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7
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+
Read this file when testing conduct, operating contribution, incentives, controls,
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governance, or succession.
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9
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Load only the cards selected by the router; do not load the whole module by default.
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Abbreviated corroboration citations resolve in the [source key](00-source-key.md).
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## Card Index
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14
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| Card | Decision question |
|
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15
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+
| --- | --- |
|
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16
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| [M01](#m01) | Does management demonstrate integrity and candor when disclosure or restraint is personally costly? |
|
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17
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+
| [M02](#m02) | How much performance reflects execution rather than inherited economics, industry conditions, leverage, or tailwinds? |
|
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18
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+
| [M03](#m03) | Has management converted retained and redeployed resources into superior long-term per-share owner value? |
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19
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+
| [M04](#m04) | What behavior do pay, ownership, shared downside, spending, and reporting arrangements actually reward? |
|
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20
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+
| [M05](#m05) | Which behaviors does the organization repeatedly attract, reward, normalize, and reproduce? |
|
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21
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+
| [M06](#m06) | Does authority sit with capable operators while audit, compliance, escalation, and capital control remain effective? |
|
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22
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+
| [M07](#m07) | Can the board understand, challenge, and act against management when owner interests require it? |
|
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23
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+
| [M08](#m08) | Can leadership, operating, investment, and control roles transfer without losing capability or fair treatment? |
|
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24
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+
|
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25
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+
## Complete Cards
|
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26
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+
|
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27
|
+
<a id="m01"></a>
|
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28
|
+
|
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29
|
+
### M01 — Evaluate Integrity and Candor Without Letting Likability Substitute for Evidence
|
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30
|
+
|
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31
|
+
- **Decision question:** Does management demonstrate integrity and candor when
|
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32
|
+
disclosure or restraint is personally costly?
|
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33
|
+
- **Guidance:** Treat character separately from performance and give more weight to
|
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34
|
+
timely bad news, honest postmortems, fair treatment, and costly restraint than
|
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35
|
+
reputation or charisma.
|
|
36
|
+
- **Use when:** Trustworthiness, disclosure quality, related-party conduct, or a thesis
|
|
37
|
+
dependent on managerial character.
|
|
38
|
+
- **Analytical actions:** Compare favorable and adverse-period communications; identify
|
|
39
|
+
costly choices; separate conduct from operating and allocation results.
|
|
40
|
+
- **Output:** A conduct ledger with supported, adverse, and unresolved observations by
|
|
41
|
+
period.
|
|
42
|
+
- **Limits:** Character is partly unobservable and vulnerable to halo and hindsight;
|
|
43
|
+
candor never replaces controls.
|
|
44
|
+
- **Source basis:**
|
|
45
|
+
- **Berkshire Hathaway 2024 annual letter** — *supports*: managerial candor is a
|
|
46
|
+
governance signal.
|
|
47
|
+
- **Berkshire Hathaway 1989 annual letter** — *qualifies*: admirable managers are
|
|
48
|
+
necessary but not sufficient.
|
|
49
|
+
- **Corroboration:** EWB §II.F; BPL1969; OM1996; BH2002.
|
|
50
|
+
|
|
51
|
+
<a id="m02"></a>
|
|
52
|
+
|
|
53
|
+
### M02 — Judge Operating Competence in Economic Context
|
|
54
|
+
|
|
55
|
+
- **Decision question:** How much performance reflects execution rather than inherited
|
|
56
|
+
economics, industry conditions, leverage, or tailwinds?
|
|
57
|
+
- **Guidance:** Assess execution against the opportunity set and constraints management
|
|
58
|
+
faced; do not infer competence solely from outcomes.
|
|
59
|
+
- **Use when:** Comparing managers across periods, peers, cycles, or businesses with
|
|
60
|
+
materially different economics.
|
|
61
|
+
- **Analytical actions:** Reconcile operating drivers with external conditions; compare
|
|
62
|
+
controllable outcomes; separate execution from allocation and character.
|
|
63
|
+
- **Output:** A contextual performance bridge identifying controllable contribution,
|
|
64
|
+
external effects, and unresolved attribution.
|
|
65
|
+
- **Limits:** Counterfactual performance is unobservable and peer sets may be poor;
|
|
66
|
+
leave attribution unresolved when causes cannot be separated.
|
|
67
|
+
- **Source basis:**
|
|
68
|
+
- **Berkshire Hathaway 2007 annual letter** — *supports*: select managers for brains
|
|
69
|
+
passion and integrity.
|
|
70
|
+
- **Berkshire Hathaway 1989 annual letter** — *qualifies*: admirable managers are
|
|
71
|
+
necessary but not sufficient.
|
|
72
|
+
- **Corroboration:** EWB §I.E; CM50-2015; BH2014.
|
|
73
|
+
|
|
74
|
+
<a id="m03"></a>
|
|
75
|
+
|
|
76
|
+
### M03 — Judge Capital-Allocation Skill Separately from Operations
|
|
77
|
+
|
|
78
|
+
- **Decision question:** Has management converted retained and redeployed resources into
|
|
79
|
+
superior long-term per-share owner value?
|
|
80
|
+
- **Guidance:** Evaluate allocation separately from operations and compare material uses
|
|
81
|
+
with contemporaneous alternatives using per-share economics.
|
|
82
|
+
- **Use when:** Retention, acquisitions, securities, debt changes, repurchases,
|
|
83
|
+
distributions, or inaction materially affects the thesis.
|
|
84
|
+
- **Analytical actions:** Reconstruct decisions and alternatives; compare expected and
|
|
85
|
+
realized per-share economics; conduct postmortems without hindsight substitution.
|
|
86
|
+
- **Output:** A dated allocation scorecard with amount, channel, rationale,
|
|
87
|
+
alternatives, outcome, and unresolved counterfactual.
|
|
88
|
+
- **Limits:** Outcomes do not fully reveal decision quality and one successful decision
|
|
89
|
+
does not establish future skill.
|
|
90
|
+
- **Source basis:**
|
|
91
|
+
- **Berkshire Hathaway 2021 annual letter** — *implements*: compare capital allocation
|
|
92
|
+
routes by return and scale.
|
|
93
|
+
- **Berkshire Hathaway 1994 annual letter** — *supports*: allocate capital by per
|
|
94
|
+
share intrinsic value not near term EPS.
|
|
95
|
+
- **Corroboration:** CM50-2015; OM1996; BH2014.
|
|
96
|
+
|
|
97
|
+
<a id="m04"></a>
|
|
98
|
+
|
|
99
|
+
### M04 — Inspect Incentives, Ownership Alignment, and Owner Treatment
|
|
100
|
+
|
|
101
|
+
- **Decision question:** What behavior do pay, ownership, shared downside, spending, and
|
|
102
|
+
reporting arrangements actually reward?
|
|
103
|
+
- **Guidance:** Map incentives to controllable risk-adjusted value and test
|
|
104
|
+
owner-alignment claims through conduct, exposure, and fair treatment.
|
|
105
|
+
- **Use when:** Compensation, control, related parties, dilution, discretionary
|
|
106
|
+
spending, or minority-owner treatment is material.
|
|
107
|
+
- **Analytical actions:** Decompose pay and ownership; test charges for capital and
|
|
108
|
+
risk; compare stated alignment with dilution, spending, disclosure, and treatment.
|
|
109
|
+
- **Output:** An incentive-and-alignment map linking mechanisms to rewarded behavior,
|
|
110
|
+
owner consequences, and conflicts.
|
|
111
|
+
- **Limits:** Concentrated ownership can create control risk and no pay formula fits
|
|
112
|
+
every role; opaque exposure leaves alignment unresolved.
|
|
113
|
+
- **Source basis:**
|
|
114
|
+
- **Berkshire Hathaway 1994 annual letter** — *implements*: tie manager pay to
|
|
115
|
+
controllable operating results.
|
|
116
|
+
- **Berkshire Hathaway 2003 annual letter** — *qualifies*: material owner alignment
|
|
117
|
+
supports director independence but does not guarantee it.
|
|
118
|
+
- **Corroboration:** EWB §I.E; OM1996; FL2025.
|
|
119
|
+
|
|
120
|
+
<a id="m05"></a>
|
|
121
|
+
|
|
122
|
+
### M05 — Test Culture and the Institutional Imperative Through Behavior
|
|
123
|
+
|
|
124
|
+
- **Decision question:** Which behaviors does the organization repeatedly attract,
|
|
125
|
+
reward, normalize, and reproduce?
|
|
126
|
+
- **Guidance:** Treat culture as a system expressed through hiring, incentives,
|
|
127
|
+
forecasts, costs, imitation, and reactions to mistakes—not declared values.
|
|
128
|
+
- **Use when:** A thesis depends on durable organizational behavior, acquisition
|
|
129
|
+
appetite, cost discipline, forecasting, or decentralization.
|
|
130
|
+
- **Analytical actions:** Identify repeated behaviors; trace reinforcing mechanisms;
|
|
131
|
+
search for actions contradicting the declared culture.
|
|
132
|
+
- **Output:** A culture-mechanism map with reinforcing behaviors, contradictions, and
|
|
133
|
+
change indicators.
|
|
134
|
+
- **Limits:** Culture is neither automatic nor irreversible; leave durability unresolved
|
|
135
|
+
when evidence is anecdotal or leader dependent.
|
|
136
|
+
- **Source basis:**
|
|
137
|
+
- **Berkshire Hathaway 1989 annual letter** — *defines*: institutional imperative.
|
|
138
|
+
- **Berkshire Hathaway 2000 annual letter** — *supports*: long term growth forecasts
|
|
139
|
+
can corrupt managerial behavior.
|
|
140
|
+
- **Corroboration:** EWB §II.F; BH2002; BH2014.
|
|
141
|
+
|
|
142
|
+
<a id="m06"></a>
|
|
143
|
+
|
|
144
|
+
### M06 — Assess Decentralization, Controls, and Bad-News Flow
|
|
145
|
+
|
|
146
|
+
- **Decision question:** Does authority sit with capable operators while audit,
|
|
147
|
+
compliance, escalation, and capital control remain effective?
|
|
148
|
+
- **Guidance:** Evaluate autonomy and control together; decentralization requires
|
|
149
|
+
capable managers, protected escalation, and explicit retained controls.
|
|
150
|
+
- **Use when:** Decentralized groups, holding companies, autonomous subsidiaries, or
|
|
151
|
+
multilayer information flow.
|
|
152
|
+
- **Analytical actions:** Map delegated and retained authorities; test audit,
|
|
153
|
+
compliance, whistleblower, and bad-news channels; review detection and correction of
|
|
154
|
+
errors.
|
|
155
|
+
- **Output:** An authority-and-control matrix with escalation paths, failure examples,
|
|
156
|
+
and unresolved dependencies.
|
|
157
|
+
- **Limits:** Centralization can also fail and visible mistakes may be an accepted cost;
|
|
158
|
+
absent incident evidence leaves control quality unresolved.
|
|
159
|
+
- **Source basis:**
|
|
160
|
+
- **Berkshire Hathaway 1991 annual letter** — *implements*: decentralize operations
|
|
161
|
+
centralize capital allocation.
|
|
162
|
+
- **Berkshire Hathaway 2004 annual letter** — *qualifies*: decentralized companies
|
|
163
|
+
need protected whistleblower channel.
|
|
164
|
+
- **Corroboration:** CM50-2015; OM1996; LOW ch.15 (two-level control structure).
|
|
165
|
+
|
|
166
|
+
<a id="m07"></a>
|
|
167
|
+
|
|
168
|
+
### M07 — Test Substantive Board Independence and Power
|
|
169
|
+
|
|
170
|
+
- **Decision question:** Can the board understand, challenge, and act against management
|
|
171
|
+
when owner interests require it?
|
|
172
|
+
- **Guidance:** Judge independence by competence, economic independence, information,
|
|
173
|
+
deliberation, and willingness to oppose or replace management—not formal labels.
|
|
174
|
+
- **Use when:** Board oversight, CEO power, deals, compensation, conflicts, or
|
|
175
|
+
controlling ownership affects the thesis.
|
|
176
|
+
- **Analytical actions:** Map skills, ties, information, and voting power; inspect
|
|
177
|
+
dissent mechanisms; review behavior during conflicts or underperformance.
|
|
178
|
+
- **Output:** A board-power assessment separating formal status from demonstrated
|
|
179
|
+
capability and action.
|
|
180
|
+
- **Limits:** Ownership and private sessions do not create judgment; unobservable
|
|
181
|
+
conflict behavior leaves independence unresolved.
|
|
182
|
+
- **Source basis:**
|
|
183
|
+
- **Berkshire Hathaway 2003 annual letter** — *supports*: business savvy is
|
|
184
|
+
indispensable for corporate directors.
|
|
185
|
+
- **Berkshire Hathaway 2019 annual letter** — *implements*: boards should hear
|
|
186
|
+
informed opposition to acquisitions.
|
|
187
|
+
- **Corroboration:** EWB §I.B; BH2014; FL2025.
|
|
188
|
+
|
|
189
|
+
<a id="m08"></a>
|
|
190
|
+
|
|
191
|
+
### M08 — Assess Role-Specific Succession and Control Continuity
|
|
192
|
+
|
|
193
|
+
- **Decision question:** Can leadership, operating, investment, and control roles
|
|
194
|
+
transfer without losing capability or fair treatment?
|
|
195
|
+
- **Guidance:** Assess succession by role, horizon, emergency readiness, delegated
|
|
196
|
+
experience, and control-transfer mechanics; a name is not proof.
|
|
197
|
+
- **Use when:** Key-person dependence, controlling ownership, aging leadership, estate
|
|
198
|
+
plans, voting arrangements, or role concentration.
|
|
199
|
+
- **Analytical actions:** Separate role successions; inspect emergency and long-term
|
|
200
|
+
plans and staged responsibility; map voting, estate, and sale mechanics.
|
|
201
|
+
- **Output:** A role-specific continuity map with successor evidence, control
|
|
202
|
+
transitions, triggers, and unresolved dependencies.
|
|
203
|
+
- **Limits:** Private plans may remain undisclosed and legal or tax mechanics can
|
|
204
|
+
change; names or assurances alone leave readiness unresolved.
|
|
205
|
+
- **Source basis:**
|
|
206
|
+
- **Berkshire Hathaway 2005 annual letter** — *defines*: succession role separation.
|
|
207
|
+
- **Berkshire Hathaway 2010 annual letter** — *implements*: document emergency
|
|
208
|
+
successors with strengths and weaknesses.
|
|
209
|
+
- **Corroboration:** CM50-2015; BH2014; FL2025.
|
|
210
|
+
|
|
211
|
+
<!-- This document follows common-doc-guidelines.md.
|
|
212
|
+
See github.com/jlevy/practical-prose and review guidelines before editing.
|
|
213
|
+
-->
|
|
@@ -0,0 +1,192 @@
|
|
|
1
|
+
# Financial Reality and Owner Economics
|
|
2
|
+
|
|
3
|
+
Use these cards as evidence-bounded analytical prompts derived from Buffett and
|
|
4
|
+
Berkshire writings. Apply them to supplied evidence, preserve each card’s limits, and
|
|
5
|
+
return unresolved findings when prerequisites are missing.
|
|
6
|
+
|
|
7
|
+
Read this file when reconciling filings, owner earnings, segments, capital returns, or
|
|
8
|
+
obligations. Load only the cards selected by the router; do not load the whole module by
|
|
9
|
+
default. Abbreviated corroboration citations resolve in the
|
|
10
|
+
[source key](00-source-key.md).
|
|
11
|
+
|
|
12
|
+
## Card Index
|
|
13
|
+
|
|
14
|
+
| Card | Decision question |
|
|
15
|
+
| --- | --- |
|
|
16
|
+
| [F01](#f01) | What ownership, cash-flow, and obligation economics lie behind the reported result? |
|
|
17
|
+
| [F02](#f02) | How much cash can owners remove without weakening competitive position or unit volume? |
|
|
18
|
+
| [F03](#f03) | Which capital preserves economics, funds growth, remains trapped, or is actually distributable? |
|
|
19
|
+
| [F04](#f04) | What economics accrue through minority interests, segments, and holding structures despite reported presentation? |
|
|
20
|
+
| [F05](#f05) | What recurring earning power belongs to each distinct business across a representative period? |
|
|
21
|
+
| [F06](#f06) | What normalized unleveraged returns does the business earn on required tangible capital, and what has additional capital produced? |
|
|
22
|
+
| [F07](#f07) | What disclosed or implied claims could absorb cash materially beyond reported earnings or liabilities? |
|
|
23
|
+
|
|
24
|
+
## Complete Cards
|
|
25
|
+
|
|
26
|
+
<a id="f01"></a>
|
|
27
|
+
|
|
28
|
+
### F01 — Reconstruct Economic Substance from Accounting
|
|
29
|
+
|
|
30
|
+
- **Decision question:** What ownership, cash-flow, and obligation economics lie behind
|
|
31
|
+
the reported result?
|
|
32
|
+
- **Guidance:** Begin with audited figures and reconcile every adjustment back to them;
|
|
33
|
+
accounting rules are inputs, not permission to discard costs.
|
|
34
|
+
- **Use when:** Accounting form, rule changes, acquisition accounting, noncash charges,
|
|
35
|
+
consolidation, or management metrics may obscure economics.
|
|
36
|
+
- **Analytical actions:** Inventory policies and changes; reconcile totals to the
|
|
37
|
+
analytical view; explain the economic reason for every adjustment.
|
|
38
|
+
- **Output:** A reported-to-economic bridge with source, amount, rationale, and
|
|
39
|
+
unresolved items for each adjustment.
|
|
40
|
+
- **Limits:** Adjustments can introduce bias and false precision; unsupported
|
|
41
|
+
substitutions or an unreconciled bridge remain unresolved.
|
|
42
|
+
- **Source basis:**
|
|
43
|
+
- **Berkshire Hathaway 1982 annual letter** — *supports*: accounting numbers begin not
|
|
44
|
+
end valuation.
|
|
45
|
+
- **Berkshire Hathaway 2001 annual letter** — *illustrates*: goodwill rule change
|
|
46
|
+
raises reported not economic earnings.
|
|
47
|
+
- **Corroboration:** EWB §V.B; EWB §V.D; OM1996; BH2014.
|
|
48
|
+
|
|
49
|
+
<a id="f02"></a>
|
|
50
|
+
|
|
51
|
+
### F02 — Estimate Owner Earnings After All Real Costs
|
|
52
|
+
|
|
53
|
+
- **Decision question:** How much cash can owners remove without weakening competitive
|
|
54
|
+
position or unit volume?
|
|
55
|
+
- **Guidance:** Restore noncash charges only when they are not economic depletion and
|
|
56
|
+
subtract maintenance capital, required working capital, compensation, and recurring
|
|
57
|
+
costs; use supported ranges.
|
|
58
|
+
- **Use when:** Cash removability or distributable earning power matters to valuation,
|
|
59
|
+
reinvestment, or payout analysis.
|
|
60
|
+
- **Analytical actions:** Show every adjustment; estimate maintenance capital and
|
|
61
|
+
working capital across a representative period; sensitize judgmental components.
|
|
62
|
+
- **Output:** A reconciled owner-earnings range with assumptions, sensitivities, and
|
|
63
|
+
blocked components.
|
|
64
|
+
- **Limits:** Maintenance and growth overlap and depreciation or amortization may
|
|
65
|
+
misstate depletion; unbounded material needs leave the result unresolved.
|
|
66
|
+
- **Source basis:**
|
|
67
|
+
- **Berkshire Hathaway 1986 annual letter** — *defines*: owner earnings.
|
|
68
|
+
- **Berkshire Hathaway 2000 annual letter** — *supports*: depreciation represents real
|
|
69
|
+
maintenance capital cost.
|
|
70
|
+
- **Corroboration:** EWB §V.D; BH2002; BH2014; BH2023.
|
|
71
|
+
|
|
72
|
+
<a id="f03"></a>
|
|
73
|
+
|
|
74
|
+
### F03 — Separate Maintenance, Growth, Restricted, and Distributable Capital
|
|
75
|
+
|
|
76
|
+
- **Decision question:** Which capital preserves economics, funds growth, remains
|
|
77
|
+
trapped, or is actually distributable?
|
|
78
|
+
- **Guidance:** Classify capital by economic function before treating cash flow as owner
|
|
79
|
+
value; required, catch-up, restricted, or low-return reinvestment is not freely
|
|
80
|
+
distributable.
|
|
81
|
+
- **Use when:** Capital-intensive, regulated, cyclical, rapidly growing, or structurally
|
|
82
|
+
restricted businesses.
|
|
83
|
+
- **Analytical actions:** Classify spending and working capital; reconcile restrictions
|
|
84
|
+
and reserves; test whether claimed growth spending only preserves economics.
|
|
85
|
+
- **Output:** A schedule of maintenance, growth, catch-up, restricted, and distributable
|
|
86
|
+
amounts or ranges.
|
|
87
|
+
- **Limits:** Categories overlap and management labels may be unreliable; unbounded
|
|
88
|
+
maintenance or restrictions leave distributability unresolved.
|
|
89
|
+
- **Source basis:**
|
|
90
|
+
- **Berkshire Hathaway 1986 annual letter** — *defines*: owner earnings.
|
|
91
|
+
- **Berkshire Hathaway 2007 annual letter** — *qualifies*: rapid growth low return
|
|
92
|
+
capital hunger is worst business model.
|
|
93
|
+
- **Corroboration:** EWB §V.C; OM1996; BH2023.
|
|
94
|
+
|
|
95
|
+
<a id="f04"></a>
|
|
96
|
+
|
|
97
|
+
### F04 — Look Through Partial Ownership, Segments, and Holding Structures
|
|
98
|
+
|
|
99
|
+
- **Decision question:** What economics accrue through minority interests, segments, and
|
|
100
|
+
holding structures despite reported presentation?
|
|
101
|
+
- **Guidance:** Attribute relevant results to distinct businesses and interests,
|
|
102
|
+
reconcile to reported totals, and credit retained investee earnings only with
|
|
103
|
+
dilution, tax, and productive-deployment evidence.
|
|
104
|
+
- **Use when:** Minority holdings, conglomerates, equity-method interests, or materially
|
|
105
|
+
different segments.
|
|
106
|
+
- **Analytical actions:** Map ownership and segments; calculate look-through economics,
|
|
107
|
+
taxes, and dilution; reconcile to consolidated reporting.
|
|
108
|
+
- **Output:** A look-through and segment schedule with ownership, reported treatment,
|
|
109
|
+
economic attribution, and differences.
|
|
110
|
+
- **Limits:** Retention can destroy value and segment definitions can obscure economics;
|
|
111
|
+
inadequate data leaves attribution unresolved.
|
|
112
|
+
- **Source basis:**
|
|
113
|
+
- **Berkshire Hathaway 1997 annual letter** — *defines*: look through earnings.
|
|
114
|
+
- **Berkshire Hathaway 1985 annual letter** — *supports*: segment data essential for
|
|
115
|
+
multiline business analysis.
|
|
116
|
+
- **Corroboration:** EWB §V.B; EWB §V.F; OM1996; BH2014.
|
|
117
|
+
|
|
118
|
+
<a id="f05"></a>
|
|
119
|
+
|
|
120
|
+
### F05 — Build a Reconciled Normalized Earning-Power Base
|
|
121
|
+
|
|
122
|
+
- **Decision question:** What recurring earning power belongs to each distinct business
|
|
123
|
+
across a representative period?
|
|
124
|
+
- **Guidance:** Bridge unusual, market-driven, cyclical, and acquisition effects without
|
|
125
|
+
erasing genuine costs; preserve reconciliation and period.
|
|
126
|
+
- **Use when:** Before valuation or comparison when results contain cycles, unusual
|
|
127
|
+
items, marks, acquisitions, or heterogeneous segments.
|
|
128
|
+
- **Analytical actions:** Reconcile by segment and period; classify adjustments; produce
|
|
129
|
+
base and adverse normalized ranges.
|
|
130
|
+
- **Output:** A normalized earning-power bridge by segment, period, and adjustment with
|
|
131
|
+
reconciled totals.
|
|
132
|
+
- **Limits:** Normalization can cherry-pick and structural change can make history
|
|
133
|
+
unrepresentative; an unbounded cycle leaves the base unresolved.
|
|
134
|
+
- **Source basis:**
|
|
135
|
+
- **Berkshire Hathaway 1983 annual letter** — *implements*: separate operating
|
|
136
|
+
earnings from unusual gains.
|
|
137
|
+
- **Berkshire Hathaway 2003 annual letter** — *implements*: analyze diversified
|
|
138
|
+
enterprises by economic segment and through time.
|
|
139
|
+
- **Corroboration:** BH2014; BH2022.
|
|
140
|
+
|
|
141
|
+
<a id="f06"></a>
|
|
142
|
+
|
|
143
|
+
### F06 — Measure Returns on Tangible and Incremental Capital
|
|
144
|
+
|
|
145
|
+
- **Decision question:** What normalized unleveraged returns does the business earn on
|
|
146
|
+
required tangible capital, and what has additional capital produced?
|
|
147
|
+
- **Guidance:** Measure historical tangible and incremental returns independently of
|
|
148
|
+
leverage and acquisition premiums; keep measurement separate from prospective
|
|
149
|
+
durability and value.
|
|
150
|
+
- **Use when:** Business quality, reinvestment, growth value, or capital intensity is
|
|
151
|
+
material.
|
|
152
|
+
- **Analytical actions:** Reconcile operating profit and tangible capital; calculate
|
|
153
|
+
incremental returns over defensible intervals; separate organic investment,
|
|
154
|
+
acquisitions, leverage, and goodwill.
|
|
155
|
+
- **Output:** A historical return schedule with denominators, intervals, adjustments,
|
|
156
|
+
and sensitivities.
|
|
157
|
+
- **Limits:** Denominators and lags are judgmental and historical returns may not
|
|
158
|
+
persist; an indefensible bridge remains unresolved.
|
|
159
|
+
- **Source basis:**
|
|
160
|
+
- **Berkshire Hathaway 1992 annual letter** — *supports*: best and worst businesses by
|
|
161
|
+
incremental capital returns.
|
|
162
|
+
- **Berkshire Hathaway 2013 annual letter** — *supports*: returns on unleveraged net
|
|
163
|
+
tangible assets reveal business economics.
|
|
164
|
+
- **Corroboration:** EWB §V.C; OM1996; BH2014; LOW ch.20 (USAir capital-intensity case).
|
|
165
|
+
|
|
166
|
+
<a id="f07"></a>
|
|
167
|
+
|
|
168
|
+
### F07 — Reconcile Cash Conversion and Hidden or Long-Duration Obligations
|
|
169
|
+
|
|
170
|
+
- **Decision question:** What disclosed or implied claims could absorb cash materially
|
|
171
|
+
beyond reported earnings or liabilities?
|
|
172
|
+
- **Guidance:** Reconcile cash conversion and inventory debt, reserves, pensions,
|
|
173
|
+
derivatives, collateral, guarantees, and uncertain promises by amount, timing, range,
|
|
174
|
+
and liquidity demand.
|
|
175
|
+
- **Use when:** Accruals, long-tail claims, pensions, derivatives, guarantees,
|
|
176
|
+
collateral, or refinancing obligations are material.
|
|
177
|
+
- **Analytical actions:** Build a cash bridge; inventory obligations and timing;
|
|
178
|
+
reconcile reported amounts to ranges and assumptions.
|
|
179
|
+
- **Output:** An obligation ledger with amount or range, timing, model dependence, cash
|
|
180
|
+
trigger, and unresolved exposure.
|
|
181
|
+
- **Limits:** Product mechanics matter and terminal cash can differ from interim marks;
|
|
182
|
+
do not invent absent ranges.
|
|
183
|
+
- **Source basis:**
|
|
184
|
+
- **Berkshire Hathaway 1992 annual letter** — *supports*: cash accounting can conceal
|
|
185
|
+
growing future liabilities.
|
|
186
|
+
- **Berkshire Hathaway 2003 annual letter** — *qualifies*: derivatives company
|
|
187
|
+
disclosures cannot reveal the full risk.
|
|
188
|
+
- **Corroboration:** EWB §V.H; BH2002.
|
|
189
|
+
|
|
190
|
+
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