@v587d/capital-generation 2.6.4 → 2.7.0

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Files changed (113) hide show
  1. package/CHANGELOG.md +89 -0
  2. package/README.md +82 -27
  3. package/THIRD_PARTY_NOTICES.md +43 -0
  4. package/capital-config/client.js +18 -2
  5. package/capital-config/client.src.cjs +161 -20
  6. package/capital-config/index.js +10 -0
  7. package/capital-config/package.json +1 -1
  8. package/capital-watchlist/client.js +48 -7
  9. package/capital-watchlist/client.src.cjs +383 -66
  10. package/capital-watchlist/holding-rules.js +64 -0
  11. package/capital-watchlist/index.js +117 -2
  12. package/capital-watchlist/package.json +2 -1
  13. package/chart-ui/package.json +1 -1
  14. package/lib/agents/selected-skills-provider.d.ts +26 -0
  15. package/lib/agents/selected-skills-provider.js +99 -0
  16. package/lib/index.d.ts +37 -0
  17. package/lib/index.js +45 -11
  18. package/lib/time/tools.d.ts +6 -0
  19. package/lib/time/tools.js +6 -1
  20. package/lib/watchlist/tools.d.ts +52 -0
  21. package/lib/watchlist/tools.js +146 -0
  22. package/lib/web-retriever/local-fetch.d.ts +1 -1
  23. package/lib/web-retriever/local-fetch.js +1 -1
  24. package/lib/web-retriever/wind-client.d.ts +1 -1
  25. package/lib/web-retriever/wind-client.js +1 -1
  26. package/package.json +13 -3
  27. package/preset/capital-generation/agent.patch.yml +7 -0
  28. package/preset/capital-generation/skills/capital-equity-research/SKILL.md +45 -0
  29. package/preset/capital-generation/skills/capital-event-impact/SKILL.md +29 -0
  30. package/preset/capital-generation/skills/capital-portfolio-review/SKILL.md +29 -0
  31. package/selected-skills/README.md +44 -0
  32. package/selected-skills/catalog.js +181 -0
  33. package/selected-skills/china-stock-research-skills/.github/ISSUE_TEMPLATE/bug_report.md +35 -0
  34. package/selected-skills/china-stock-research-skills/.github/ISSUE_TEMPLATE/skill_request.md +28 -0
  35. package/selected-skills/china-stock-research-skills/.github/PULL_REQUEST_TEMPLATE.md +15 -0
  36. package/selected-skills/china-stock-research-skills/CHANGELOG.md +59 -0
  37. package/selected-skills/china-stock-research-skills/CONTRIBUTING.md +121 -0
  38. package/selected-skills/china-stock-research-skills/GITHUB_PUBLISHING.md +259 -0
  39. package/selected-skills/china-stock-research-skills/INSTALL.md +151 -0
  40. package/selected-skills/china-stock-research-skills/LICENSE +21 -0
  41. package/selected-skills/china-stock-research-skills/PUBLISH_CHECKLIST.md +165 -0
  42. package/selected-skills/china-stock-research-skills/README.en.md +209 -0
  43. package/selected-skills/china-stock-research-skills/README.md +209 -0
  44. package/selected-skills/china-stock-research-skills/RELEASE_ASSETS.md +222 -0
  45. package/selected-skills/china-stock-research-skills/ROADMAP.md +45 -0
  46. package/selected-skills/china-stock-research-skills/SKILLS.md +85 -0
  47. package/selected-skills/china-stock-research-skills/UPSTREAM.md +11 -0
  48. package/selected-skills/china-stock-research-skills/examples/full-report-flow.md +20 -0
  49. package/selected-skills/china-stock-research-skills/examples/module-select-cases.md +26 -0
  50. package/selected-skills/china-stock-research-skills/examples/quickstart-prompts.md +25 -0
  51. package/selected-skills/china-stock-research-skills/skills/business-decomposition-order-quality/SKILL.md +55 -0
  52. package/selected-skills/china-stock-research-skills/skills/business-decomposition-order-quality/references/idc-order-ledger-guide.md +34 -0
  53. package/selected-skills/china-stock-research-skills/skills/business-decomposition-order-quality/references/order-quality-checklist.md +16 -0
  54. package/selected-skills/china-stock-research-skills/skills/china-stock-research-orchestrator/SKILL.md +75 -0
  55. package/selected-skills/china-stock-research-skills/skills/china-stock-research-orchestrator/references/final-output-contract.md +62 -0
  56. package/selected-skills/china-stock-research-skills/skills/china-stock-research-orchestrator/references/routing-matrix.md +34 -0
  57. package/selected-skills/china-stock-research-skills/skills/china-stock-research-orchestrator/references/sector-overlay-escalation-rules.md +38 -0
  58. package/selected-skills/china-stock-research-skills/skills/financial-health/SKILL.md +54 -0
  59. package/selected-skills/china-stock-research-skills/skills/financial-health/references/idc-balance-sheet-stress-guide.md +31 -0
  60. package/selected-skills/china-stock-research-skills/skills/financial-health/references/red-flag-checklist.md +14 -0
  61. package/selected-skills/china-stock-research-skills/skills/industry-competition-moat/SKILL.md +54 -0
  62. package/selected-skills/china-stock-research-skills/skills/industry-competition-moat/references/idc-value-chain-and-peers.md +42 -0
  63. package/selected-skills/china-stock-research-skills/skills/industry-competition-moat/references/moat-grid.md +13 -0
  64. package/selected-skills/china-stock-research-skills/skills/risk-warning-catalysts/SKILL.md +54 -0
  65. package/selected-skills/china-stock-research-skills/skills/risk-warning-catalysts/references/idc-monitoring-indicators.md +33 -0
  66. package/selected-skills/china-stock-research-skills/skills/risk-warning-catalysts/references/monitoring-dashboard.md +25 -0
  67. package/selected-skills/china-stock-research-skills/skills/shared/references/analysis-pattern-selector.md +24 -0
  68. package/selected-skills/china-stock-research-skills/skills/shared/references/asset-heavy-ramp-overlay.md +28 -0
  69. package/selected-skills/china-stock-research-skills/skills/shared/references/business-model-transition-overlay.md +28 -0
  70. package/selected-skills/china-stock-research-skills/skills/shared/references/citation-standard.md +48 -0
  71. package/selected-skills/china-stock-research-skills/skills/shared/references/company-disclosure-map.md +37 -0
  72. package/selected-skills/china-stock-research-skills/skills/shared/references/consumer-channel-brand-overlay.md +29 -0
  73. package/selected-skills/china-stock-research-skills/skills/shared/references/cyclical-price-driven-overlay.md +29 -0
  74. package/selected-skills/china-stock-research-skills/skills/shared/references/export-manufacturing-supply-chain-overlay.md +29 -0
  75. package/selected-skills/china-stock-research-skills/skills/shared/references/financial-kpi-dictionary.md +43 -0
  76. package/selected-skills/china-stock-research-skills/skills/shared/references/idc-heavy-asset-transition-overlay.md +73 -0
  77. package/selected-skills/china-stock-research-skills/skills/shared/references/language-output-standard.md +36 -0
  78. package/selected-skills/china-stock-research-skills/skills/shared/references/project-order-business-overlay.md +28 -0
  79. package/selected-skills/china-stock-research-skills/skills/shared/references/regulated-healthcare-policy-overlay.md +29 -0
  80. package/selected-skills/china-stock-research-skills/skills/shared/references/research-output-template.md +50 -0
  81. package/selected-skills/china-stock-research-skills/skills/shared/references/sector-adaptation-checklist.md +42 -0
  82. package/selected-skills/china-stock-research-skills/skills/shared/references/source-registry.md +49 -0
  83. package/selected-skills/china-stock-research-skills/skills/shared/templates/catalyst-calendar.md +5 -0
  84. package/selected-skills/china-stock-research-skills/skills/shared/templates/company-fact-sheet.md +25 -0
  85. package/selected-skills/china-stock-research-skills/skills/shared/templates/evidence-table.md +5 -0
  86. package/selected-skills/china-stock-research-skills/skills/shared/templates/idc-project-ledger.md +5 -0
  87. package/selected-skills/china-stock-research-skills/skills/shared/templates/valuation-scenario-table.md +7 -0
  88. package/selected-skills/china-stock-research-skills/skills/strategy-business-transition/SKILL.md +55 -0
  89. package/selected-skills/china-stock-research-skills/skills/strategy-business-transition/references/idc-transition-markers.md +27 -0
  90. package/selected-skills/china-stock-research-skills/skills/strategy-business-transition/references/transition-scorecard.md +13 -0
  91. package/selected-skills/china-stock-research-skills/skills/valuation-investment-strategy/SKILL.md +55 -0
  92. package/selected-skills/china-stock-research-skills/skills/valuation-investment-strategy/references/idc-valuation-overlays.md +31 -0
  93. package/selected-skills/china-stock-research-skills/skills/valuation-investment-strategy/references/method-selection.md +14 -0
  94. package/selected-skills/investment-skills/.github/workflows/validate.yml +25 -0
  95. package/selected-skills/investment-skills/.tbd/config.yml +107 -0
  96. package/selected-skills/investment-skills/LICENSE +21 -0
  97. package/selected-skills/investment-skills/Makefile +29 -0
  98. package/selected-skills/investment-skills/README.md +253 -0
  99. package/selected-skills/investment-skills/UPSTREAM.md +12 -0
  100. package/selected-skills/investment-skills/docs/development.md +37 -0
  101. package/selected-skills/investment-skills/docs/roadmap.md +25 -0
  102. package/selected-skills/investment-skills/skills/buffett-investment-framework/SKILL.md +192 -0
  103. package/selected-skills/investment-skills/skills/buffett-investment-framework/agents/openai.yaml +4 -0
  104. package/selected-skills/investment-skills/skills/buffett-investment-framework/references/00-source-key.md +82 -0
  105. package/selected-skills/investment-skills/skills/buffett-investment-framework/references/01-decision-posture.md +242 -0
  106. package/selected-skills/investment-skills/skills/buffett-investment-framework/references/02-business-economics.md +188 -0
  107. package/selected-skills/investment-skills/skills/buffett-investment-framework/references/03-management-governance.md +213 -0
  108. package/selected-skills/investment-skills/skills/buffett-investment-framework/references/04-financial-reality.md +192 -0
  109. package/selected-skills/investment-skills/skills/buffett-investment-framework/references/05-valuation.md +166 -0
  110. package/selected-skills/investment-skills/skills/buffett-investment-framework/references/06-capital-allocation.md +238 -0
  111. package/selected-skills/investment-skills/skills/buffett-investment-framework/references/07-risk-monitoring.md +189 -0
  112. package/selected-skills/investment-skills/skills/buffett-investment-framework/references/08-specialized-overlays.md +309 -0
  113. package/selected-skills/investment-skills/skills/buffett-investment-framework/scripts/framework.py +470 -0
@@ -0,0 +1,188 @@
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+ # Business Economics and Competitive Position
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+
3
+ Use these cards as evidence-bounded analytical prompts derived from Buffett and
4
+ Berkshire writings. Apply them to supplied evidence, preserve each card’s limits, and
5
+ return unresolved findings when prerequisites are missing.
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+
7
+ Read this file when mapping the business, testing moat mechanisms, reinvestment, or
8
+ structural change. Load only the cards selected by the router; do not load the whole
9
+ module by default. Abbreviated corroboration citations resolve in the
10
+ [source key](00-source-key.md).
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+
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+ ## Card Index
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+
14
+ | Card | Decision question |
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+ | --- | --- |
16
+ | [B01](#b01) | How does a customer dollar become revenue, operating cash, required reinvestment, and distributable owner cash? |
17
+ | [B02](#b02) | What mechanism protects excess returns, and is it widening or eroding? |
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+ | [B03](#b03) | Do customer behavior, channel position, and realized pricing support durable economics? |
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+ | [B04](#b04) | Does a non-brand mechanism durably alter delivered cost, customer switching, competitor entry, or network utility? |
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+ | [B05](#b05) | Will price-taking, excess capacity, and required reinvestment consume apparent earnings or growth? |
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+ | [B06](#b06) | Can the business deploy material additional capital at attractive normalized returns for long enough to affect owner value? |
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+ | [B07](#b07) | Is weakness temporary and bounded, or caused by persistent economics that additional effort and capital are unlikely to repair? |
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+
24
+ ## Complete Cards
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+
26
+ <a id="b01"></a>
27
+
28
+ ### B01 — Map How the Business Earns and Converts a Dollar
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+
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+ - **Decision question:** How does a customer dollar become revenue, operating cash,
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+ required reinvestment, and distributable owner cash?
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+ - **Guidance:** Build a causal model from transaction and unit economics through working
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+ capital, maintenance, growth funding, and owner cash, then reconcile it to reported
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+ totals.
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+ - **Use when:** Initial analysis, a changed business model, unexplained cash conversion,
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+ or a forecast with unclear operating mechanics.
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+ - **Analytical actions:** Map revenue drivers, unit economics, and costs; trace required
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+ and optional reinvestment; reconcile to reported cash and segments.
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+ - **Output:** A one-page business-model map and dollar-conversion bridge with explicit
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+ gaps.
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+ - **Limits:** A coherent map does not prove durability or value; unresolved segment,
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+ unit, or reinvestment data leave the map unresolved.
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+ - **Source basis:**
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+ - **Berkshire Hathaway 2000 annual letter** — *supports*: growth affects value only
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+ through cash flow economics.
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+ - **Berkshire Hathaway 1977 annual letter** — *illustrates*: See’s capital light
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+ earnings growth.
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+ - **Corroboration:** EWB §V.C; EWB §V.D; OM1996.
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+
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+ <a id="b02"></a>
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+
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+ ### B02 — Identify a Causal Moat and Track Its Direction
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+
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+ - **Decision question:** What mechanism protects excess returns, and is it widening or
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+ eroding?
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+ - **Guidance:** Name the mechanism, behavior it changes, and economics it protects;
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+ track direction with business-specific evidence rather than labels.
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+ - **Use when:** A thesis claims durable quality, excess returns, franchise value, or
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+ competitive advantage.
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+ - **Analytical actions:** State the mechanism and protected benefit; describe the
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+ strongest plausible attack; track strengthening and erosion indicators.
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+ - **Output:** A causal moat map with mechanism, protected economics, attack path,
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+ indicators, and unresolved links.
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+ - **Limits:** Reputation, market share, and historical returns do not alone prove a
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+ moat.
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+ - **Source basis:**
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+ - **Berkshire Hathaway 2005 annual letter** — *defines*: widening the moat.
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+ - **Berkshire Hathaway 1995 annual letter** — *illustrates*: GEICO direct distribution
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+ created structural cost advantage.
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+ - **Corroboration:** BH1981; BH2007; BH2014; LOW ch.3 (GEICO cost-advantage discovery).
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+
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+ <a id="b03"></a>
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+
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+ ### B03 — Test Pricing Power, Brand, and Distribution Strength
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+
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+ - **Decision question:** Do customer behavior, channel position, and realized pricing
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+ support durable economics?
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+ - **Guidance:** Treat brand and distribution as mechanisms only when price realization,
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+ retention, volume, utility, and channel evidence show a durable behavioral effect.
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+ - **Use when:** Brand, loyalty, distribution, or pricing power is central to the thesis.
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+ - **Analytical actions:** Decompose price, volume, mix, retention, and elasticity;
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+ examine channels and utility; test inflation, scarcity, and promotion as alternatives.
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+ - **Output:** A pricing-and-distribution scorecard with mechanism evidence,
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+ alternatives, and direction.
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+ - **Limits:** Price increases can reflect inflation or scarcity; awareness and past
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+ margins are insufficient.
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+ - **Source basis:**
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+ - **Berkshire Hathaway 1983 annual letter** — *supports*: consumer franchise and low
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+ cost position create goodwill.
90
+ - **Berkshire Hathaway 1993 annual letter** — *supports*: brands products and
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+ distribution create protective moats.
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+ - **Corroboration:** EWB §V.C; BH2014; BH2023; LOW ch.9 (See’s brand pricing case).
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+
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+ <a id="b04"></a>
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+
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+ ### B04 — Test Cost, Scale, Switching, Network, and Efficient-Scale Advantages
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+
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+ - **Decision question:** Does a non-brand mechanism durably alter delivered cost,
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+ customer switching, competitor entry, or network utility?
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+ - **Guidance:** Verify each mechanism through unit-cost, customer, network, or entry
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+ evidence; do not infer durability from size alone.
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+ - **Use when:** A thesis rests on low cost, scale, switching costs, network effects,
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+ scarce capacity, or efficient scale.
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+ - **Analytical actions:** Quantify the claimed difference; test whether rivals can copy
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+ or bypass it; track switching, network density, entry, and delivered cost.
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+ - **Output:** A mechanism-specific advantage table with causal link, rival response,
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+ durability, and unresolved evidence.
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+ - **Limits:** Scale can add complexity, switching can be inertia, networks can reverse,
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+ and temporary efficiency is not a moat.
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+ - **Source basis:**
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+ - **Berkshire Hathaway 1995 annual letter** — *illustrates*: GEICO direct distribution
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+ created structural cost advantage.
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+ - **Berkshire Hathaway 2007 annual letter** — *defines*: enduring economic moat.
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+ - **Corroboration:** CM50-2015; BH1981; BH2014.
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+
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+ <a id="b05"></a>
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+
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+ ### B05 — Distinguish a Franchise from a Commodity or Capital Trap
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+
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+ - **Decision question:** Will price-taking, excess capacity, and required reinvestment
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+ consume apparent earnings or growth?
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+ - **Guidance:** Diagnose whether returns come from differentiated value or favorable
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+ cycle and price while replacement and competitive capital absorb owner cash.
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+ - **Use when:** Commodity, manufacturing, transport, capital-intensive, or rapidly
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+ growing businesses with volatile prices or persistent reinvestment.
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+ - **Analytical actions:** Measure replacement capital, working capital, utilization, and
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+ incremental returns; test price-taking and capacity; identify low-cost or regulated
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+ exceptions.
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+ - **Output:** A franchise-versus-capital-trap diagnosis with capital burden, industry
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+ mechanism, exceptions, and unresolved data.
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+ - **Limits:** A low-cost producer or fairly regulated asset can be viable; one weak
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+ cycle does not establish a trap.
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+ - **Source basis:**
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+ - **Berkshire Hathaway 1978 annual letter** — *supports*: commodity capital intensity
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+ depresses returns.
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+ - **Berkshire Hathaway 1982 annual letter** — *supports*: commodity overcapacity
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+ drives poor profitability.
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+ - **Corroboration:** EWB §I.C; OM1996; BH1981; BH2023.
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+
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+ <a id="b06"></a>
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+
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+ ### B06 — Judge the Reinvestment Runway from Normalized Capital Returns
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+
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+ - **Decision question:** Can the business deploy material additional capital at
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+ attractive normalized returns for long enough to affect owner value?
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+ - **Guidance:** Separate returns on required from incremental capital, then test the
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+ scale, duration, funding, and durability of the prospective runway.
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+ - **Use when:** Growth valuation, retained-earnings analysis, or a quality claim based
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+ on historical returns.
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+ - **Analytical actions:** Measure normalized unleveraged returns; estimate deployable
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+ capital and funding; stress return decay with scale and competition.
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+ - **Output:** A reinvestment-runway schedule showing return evidence, deployable
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+ capital, duration, decay assumptions, and unresolved bounds.
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+ - **Limits:** Historical returns do not prove future opportunity; neither reinvestment
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+ nor distribution alone establishes security value.
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+ - **Source basis:**
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+ - **Berkshire Hathaway 1992 annual letter** — *supports*: best and worst businesses by
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+ incremental capital returns.
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+ - **Berkshire Hathaway 2007 annual letter** — *qualifies*: scale prevents repetition
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+ of Berkshire past returns.
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+ - **Corroboration:** EWB §III.C; OM1996; BH2014; BH2023.
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+
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+ <a id="b07"></a>
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+
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+ ### B07 — Separate Cyclical Setbacks from Structural or Turnaround Traps
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+
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+ - **Decision question:** Is weakness temporary and bounded, or caused by persistent
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+ economics that additional effort and capital are unlikely to repair?
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+ - **Guidance:** Identify the causal problem and require evidence that it is discrete,
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+ financeable, and repairable before calling it cyclical or a turnaround.
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+ - **Use when:** Depressed earnings, apparent cheapness, restructuring, turnaround
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+ claims, or repeated capital demands.
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+ - **Analytical actions:** Separate cycle, execution, and structural mechanisms; compare
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+ prior cycles and peers; define repair conditions, capital, and failure indicators.
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+ - **Output:** A cyclical-versus-structural diagnosis with causal evidence, repair test,
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+ capital requirement, and unresolved classification.
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+ - **Limits:** Poor historical economics are not immutable and exceptional management can
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+ improve a mediocre business.
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+ - **Source basis:**
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+ - **Berkshire Hathaway 1979 annual letter** — *illustrates*: Waumbec cheap turnaround
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+ failed.
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+ - **Berkshire Hathaway 1988 annual letter** — *qualifies*: exceptional management can
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+ overcome mediocre industry economics.
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+ - **Corroboration:** EWB §II.F; OM1996; BH2014; FL2025.
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+
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+ <!-- This document follows common-doc-guidelines.md.
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+ See github.com/jlevy/practical-prose and review guidelines before editing.
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+ -->
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+ # Management, Governance, and Culture
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+
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+ Use these cards as evidence-bounded analytical prompts derived from Buffett and
4
+ Berkshire writings. Apply them to supplied evidence, preserve each card’s limits, and
5
+ return unresolved findings when prerequisites are missing.
6
+
7
+ Read this file when testing conduct, operating contribution, incentives, controls,
8
+ governance, or succession.
9
+ Load only the cards selected by the router; do not load the whole module by default.
10
+ Abbreviated corroboration citations resolve in the [source key](00-source-key.md).
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+
12
+ ## Card Index
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+
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+ | Card | Decision question |
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+ | --- | --- |
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+ | [M01](#m01) | Does management demonstrate integrity and candor when disclosure or restraint is personally costly? |
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+ | [M02](#m02) | How much performance reflects execution rather than inherited economics, industry conditions, leverage, or tailwinds? |
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+ | [M03](#m03) | Has management converted retained and redeployed resources into superior long-term per-share owner value? |
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+ | [M04](#m04) | What behavior do pay, ownership, shared downside, spending, and reporting arrangements actually reward? |
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+ | [M05](#m05) | Which behaviors does the organization repeatedly attract, reward, normalize, and reproduce? |
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+ | [M06](#m06) | Does authority sit with capable operators while audit, compliance, escalation, and capital control remain effective? |
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+ | [M07](#m07) | Can the board understand, challenge, and act against management when owner interests require it? |
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+ | [M08](#m08) | Can leadership, operating, investment, and control roles transfer without losing capability or fair treatment? |
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+
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+ ## Complete Cards
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+
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+ <a id="m01"></a>
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+
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+ ### M01 — Evaluate Integrity and Candor Without Letting Likability Substitute for Evidence
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+
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+ - **Decision question:** Does management demonstrate integrity and candor when
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+ disclosure or restraint is personally costly?
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+ - **Guidance:** Treat character separately from performance and give more weight to
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+ timely bad news, honest postmortems, fair treatment, and costly restraint than
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+ reputation or charisma.
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+ - **Use when:** Trustworthiness, disclosure quality, related-party conduct, or a thesis
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+ dependent on managerial character.
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+ - **Analytical actions:** Compare favorable and adverse-period communications; identify
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+ costly choices; separate conduct from operating and allocation results.
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+ - **Output:** A conduct ledger with supported, adverse, and unresolved observations by
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+ period.
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+ - **Limits:** Character is partly unobservable and vulnerable to halo and hindsight;
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+ candor never replaces controls.
44
+ - **Source basis:**
45
+ - **Berkshire Hathaway 2024 annual letter** — *supports*: managerial candor is a
46
+ governance signal.
47
+ - **Berkshire Hathaway 1989 annual letter** — *qualifies*: admirable managers are
48
+ necessary but not sufficient.
49
+ - **Corroboration:** EWB §II.F; BPL1969; OM1996; BH2002.
50
+
51
+ <a id="m02"></a>
52
+
53
+ ### M02 — Judge Operating Competence in Economic Context
54
+
55
+ - **Decision question:** How much performance reflects execution rather than inherited
56
+ economics, industry conditions, leverage, or tailwinds?
57
+ - **Guidance:** Assess execution against the opportunity set and constraints management
58
+ faced; do not infer competence solely from outcomes.
59
+ - **Use when:** Comparing managers across periods, peers, cycles, or businesses with
60
+ materially different economics.
61
+ - **Analytical actions:** Reconcile operating drivers with external conditions; compare
62
+ controllable outcomes; separate execution from allocation and character.
63
+ - **Output:** A contextual performance bridge identifying controllable contribution,
64
+ external effects, and unresolved attribution.
65
+ - **Limits:** Counterfactual performance is unobservable and peer sets may be poor;
66
+ leave attribution unresolved when causes cannot be separated.
67
+ - **Source basis:**
68
+ - **Berkshire Hathaway 2007 annual letter** — *supports*: select managers for brains
69
+ passion and integrity.
70
+ - **Berkshire Hathaway 1989 annual letter** — *qualifies*: admirable managers are
71
+ necessary but not sufficient.
72
+ - **Corroboration:** EWB §I.E; CM50-2015; BH2014.
73
+
74
+ <a id="m03"></a>
75
+
76
+ ### M03 — Judge Capital-Allocation Skill Separately from Operations
77
+
78
+ - **Decision question:** Has management converted retained and redeployed resources into
79
+ superior long-term per-share owner value?
80
+ - **Guidance:** Evaluate allocation separately from operations and compare material uses
81
+ with contemporaneous alternatives using per-share economics.
82
+ - **Use when:** Retention, acquisitions, securities, debt changes, repurchases,
83
+ distributions, or inaction materially affects the thesis.
84
+ - **Analytical actions:** Reconstruct decisions and alternatives; compare expected and
85
+ realized per-share economics; conduct postmortems without hindsight substitution.
86
+ - **Output:** A dated allocation scorecard with amount, channel, rationale,
87
+ alternatives, outcome, and unresolved counterfactual.
88
+ - **Limits:** Outcomes do not fully reveal decision quality and one successful decision
89
+ does not establish future skill.
90
+ - **Source basis:**
91
+ - **Berkshire Hathaway 2021 annual letter** — *implements*: compare capital allocation
92
+ routes by return and scale.
93
+ - **Berkshire Hathaway 1994 annual letter** — *supports*: allocate capital by per
94
+ share intrinsic value not near term EPS.
95
+ - **Corroboration:** CM50-2015; OM1996; BH2014.
96
+
97
+ <a id="m04"></a>
98
+
99
+ ### M04 — Inspect Incentives, Ownership Alignment, and Owner Treatment
100
+
101
+ - **Decision question:** What behavior do pay, ownership, shared downside, spending, and
102
+ reporting arrangements actually reward?
103
+ - **Guidance:** Map incentives to controllable risk-adjusted value and test
104
+ owner-alignment claims through conduct, exposure, and fair treatment.
105
+ - **Use when:** Compensation, control, related parties, dilution, discretionary
106
+ spending, or minority-owner treatment is material.
107
+ - **Analytical actions:** Decompose pay and ownership; test charges for capital and
108
+ risk; compare stated alignment with dilution, spending, disclosure, and treatment.
109
+ - **Output:** An incentive-and-alignment map linking mechanisms to rewarded behavior,
110
+ owner consequences, and conflicts.
111
+ - **Limits:** Concentrated ownership can create control risk and no pay formula fits
112
+ every role; opaque exposure leaves alignment unresolved.
113
+ - **Source basis:**
114
+ - **Berkshire Hathaway 1994 annual letter** — *implements*: tie manager pay to
115
+ controllable operating results.
116
+ - **Berkshire Hathaway 2003 annual letter** — *qualifies*: material owner alignment
117
+ supports director independence but does not guarantee it.
118
+ - **Corroboration:** EWB §I.E; OM1996; FL2025.
119
+
120
+ <a id="m05"></a>
121
+
122
+ ### M05 — Test Culture and the Institutional Imperative Through Behavior
123
+
124
+ - **Decision question:** Which behaviors does the organization repeatedly attract,
125
+ reward, normalize, and reproduce?
126
+ - **Guidance:** Treat culture as a system expressed through hiring, incentives,
127
+ forecasts, costs, imitation, and reactions to mistakes—not declared values.
128
+ - **Use when:** A thesis depends on durable organizational behavior, acquisition
129
+ appetite, cost discipline, forecasting, or decentralization.
130
+ - **Analytical actions:** Identify repeated behaviors; trace reinforcing mechanisms;
131
+ search for actions contradicting the declared culture.
132
+ - **Output:** A culture-mechanism map with reinforcing behaviors, contradictions, and
133
+ change indicators.
134
+ - **Limits:** Culture is neither automatic nor irreversible; leave durability unresolved
135
+ when evidence is anecdotal or leader dependent.
136
+ - **Source basis:**
137
+ - **Berkshire Hathaway 1989 annual letter** — *defines*: institutional imperative.
138
+ - **Berkshire Hathaway 2000 annual letter** — *supports*: long term growth forecasts
139
+ can corrupt managerial behavior.
140
+ - **Corroboration:** EWB §II.F; BH2002; BH2014.
141
+
142
+ <a id="m06"></a>
143
+
144
+ ### M06 — Assess Decentralization, Controls, and Bad-News Flow
145
+
146
+ - **Decision question:** Does authority sit with capable operators while audit,
147
+ compliance, escalation, and capital control remain effective?
148
+ - **Guidance:** Evaluate autonomy and control together; decentralization requires
149
+ capable managers, protected escalation, and explicit retained controls.
150
+ - **Use when:** Decentralized groups, holding companies, autonomous subsidiaries, or
151
+ multilayer information flow.
152
+ - **Analytical actions:** Map delegated and retained authorities; test audit,
153
+ compliance, whistleblower, and bad-news channels; review detection and correction of
154
+ errors.
155
+ - **Output:** An authority-and-control matrix with escalation paths, failure examples,
156
+ and unresolved dependencies.
157
+ - **Limits:** Centralization can also fail and visible mistakes may be an accepted cost;
158
+ absent incident evidence leaves control quality unresolved.
159
+ - **Source basis:**
160
+ - **Berkshire Hathaway 1991 annual letter** — *implements*: decentralize operations
161
+ centralize capital allocation.
162
+ - **Berkshire Hathaway 2004 annual letter** — *qualifies*: decentralized companies
163
+ need protected whistleblower channel.
164
+ - **Corroboration:** CM50-2015; OM1996; LOW ch.15 (two-level control structure).
165
+
166
+ <a id="m07"></a>
167
+
168
+ ### M07 — Test Substantive Board Independence and Power
169
+
170
+ - **Decision question:** Can the board understand, challenge, and act against management
171
+ when owner interests require it?
172
+ - **Guidance:** Judge independence by competence, economic independence, information,
173
+ deliberation, and willingness to oppose or replace management—not formal labels.
174
+ - **Use when:** Board oversight, CEO power, deals, compensation, conflicts, or
175
+ controlling ownership affects the thesis.
176
+ - **Analytical actions:** Map skills, ties, information, and voting power; inspect
177
+ dissent mechanisms; review behavior during conflicts or underperformance.
178
+ - **Output:** A board-power assessment separating formal status from demonstrated
179
+ capability and action.
180
+ - **Limits:** Ownership and private sessions do not create judgment; unobservable
181
+ conflict behavior leaves independence unresolved.
182
+ - **Source basis:**
183
+ - **Berkshire Hathaway 2003 annual letter** — *supports*: business savvy is
184
+ indispensable for corporate directors.
185
+ - **Berkshire Hathaway 2019 annual letter** — *implements*: boards should hear
186
+ informed opposition to acquisitions.
187
+ - **Corroboration:** EWB §I.B; BH2014; FL2025.
188
+
189
+ <a id="m08"></a>
190
+
191
+ ### M08 — Assess Role-Specific Succession and Control Continuity
192
+
193
+ - **Decision question:** Can leadership, operating, investment, and control roles
194
+ transfer without losing capability or fair treatment?
195
+ - **Guidance:** Assess succession by role, horizon, emergency readiness, delegated
196
+ experience, and control-transfer mechanics; a name is not proof.
197
+ - **Use when:** Key-person dependence, controlling ownership, aging leadership, estate
198
+ plans, voting arrangements, or role concentration.
199
+ - **Analytical actions:** Separate role successions; inspect emergency and long-term
200
+ plans and staged responsibility; map voting, estate, and sale mechanics.
201
+ - **Output:** A role-specific continuity map with successor evidence, control
202
+ transitions, triggers, and unresolved dependencies.
203
+ - **Limits:** Private plans may remain undisclosed and legal or tax mechanics can
204
+ change; names or assurances alone leave readiness unresolved.
205
+ - **Source basis:**
206
+ - **Berkshire Hathaway 2005 annual letter** — *defines*: succession role separation.
207
+ - **Berkshire Hathaway 2010 annual letter** — *implements*: document emergency
208
+ successors with strengths and weaknesses.
209
+ - **Corroboration:** CM50-2015; BH2014; FL2025.
210
+
211
+ <!-- This document follows common-doc-guidelines.md.
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+ See github.com/jlevy/practical-prose and review guidelines before editing.
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+ -->
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1
+ # Financial Reality and Owner Economics
2
+
3
+ Use these cards as evidence-bounded analytical prompts derived from Buffett and
4
+ Berkshire writings. Apply them to supplied evidence, preserve each card’s limits, and
5
+ return unresolved findings when prerequisites are missing.
6
+
7
+ Read this file when reconciling filings, owner earnings, segments, capital returns, or
8
+ obligations. Load only the cards selected by the router; do not load the whole module by
9
+ default. Abbreviated corroboration citations resolve in the
10
+ [source key](00-source-key.md).
11
+
12
+ ## Card Index
13
+
14
+ | Card | Decision question |
15
+ | --- | --- |
16
+ | [F01](#f01) | What ownership, cash-flow, and obligation economics lie behind the reported result? |
17
+ | [F02](#f02) | How much cash can owners remove without weakening competitive position or unit volume? |
18
+ | [F03](#f03) | Which capital preserves economics, funds growth, remains trapped, or is actually distributable? |
19
+ | [F04](#f04) | What economics accrue through minority interests, segments, and holding structures despite reported presentation? |
20
+ | [F05](#f05) | What recurring earning power belongs to each distinct business across a representative period? |
21
+ | [F06](#f06) | What normalized unleveraged returns does the business earn on required tangible capital, and what has additional capital produced? |
22
+ | [F07](#f07) | What disclosed or implied claims could absorb cash materially beyond reported earnings or liabilities? |
23
+
24
+ ## Complete Cards
25
+
26
+ <a id="f01"></a>
27
+
28
+ ### F01 — Reconstruct Economic Substance from Accounting
29
+
30
+ - **Decision question:** What ownership, cash-flow, and obligation economics lie behind
31
+ the reported result?
32
+ - **Guidance:** Begin with audited figures and reconcile every adjustment back to them;
33
+ accounting rules are inputs, not permission to discard costs.
34
+ - **Use when:** Accounting form, rule changes, acquisition accounting, noncash charges,
35
+ consolidation, or management metrics may obscure economics.
36
+ - **Analytical actions:** Inventory policies and changes; reconcile totals to the
37
+ analytical view; explain the economic reason for every adjustment.
38
+ - **Output:** A reported-to-economic bridge with source, amount, rationale, and
39
+ unresolved items for each adjustment.
40
+ - **Limits:** Adjustments can introduce bias and false precision; unsupported
41
+ substitutions or an unreconciled bridge remain unresolved.
42
+ - **Source basis:**
43
+ - **Berkshire Hathaway 1982 annual letter** — *supports*: accounting numbers begin not
44
+ end valuation.
45
+ - **Berkshire Hathaway 2001 annual letter** — *illustrates*: goodwill rule change
46
+ raises reported not economic earnings.
47
+ - **Corroboration:** EWB §V.B; EWB §V.D; OM1996; BH2014.
48
+
49
+ <a id="f02"></a>
50
+
51
+ ### F02 — Estimate Owner Earnings After All Real Costs
52
+
53
+ - **Decision question:** How much cash can owners remove without weakening competitive
54
+ position or unit volume?
55
+ - **Guidance:** Restore noncash charges only when they are not economic depletion and
56
+ subtract maintenance capital, required working capital, compensation, and recurring
57
+ costs; use supported ranges.
58
+ - **Use when:** Cash removability or distributable earning power matters to valuation,
59
+ reinvestment, or payout analysis.
60
+ - **Analytical actions:** Show every adjustment; estimate maintenance capital and
61
+ working capital across a representative period; sensitize judgmental components.
62
+ - **Output:** A reconciled owner-earnings range with assumptions, sensitivities, and
63
+ blocked components.
64
+ - **Limits:** Maintenance and growth overlap and depreciation or amortization may
65
+ misstate depletion; unbounded material needs leave the result unresolved.
66
+ - **Source basis:**
67
+ - **Berkshire Hathaway 1986 annual letter** — *defines*: owner earnings.
68
+ - **Berkshire Hathaway 2000 annual letter** — *supports*: depreciation represents real
69
+ maintenance capital cost.
70
+ - **Corroboration:** EWB §V.D; BH2002; BH2014; BH2023.
71
+
72
+ <a id="f03"></a>
73
+
74
+ ### F03 — Separate Maintenance, Growth, Restricted, and Distributable Capital
75
+
76
+ - **Decision question:** Which capital preserves economics, funds growth, remains
77
+ trapped, or is actually distributable?
78
+ - **Guidance:** Classify capital by economic function before treating cash flow as owner
79
+ value; required, catch-up, restricted, or low-return reinvestment is not freely
80
+ distributable.
81
+ - **Use when:** Capital-intensive, regulated, cyclical, rapidly growing, or structurally
82
+ restricted businesses.
83
+ - **Analytical actions:** Classify spending and working capital; reconcile restrictions
84
+ and reserves; test whether claimed growth spending only preserves economics.
85
+ - **Output:** A schedule of maintenance, growth, catch-up, restricted, and distributable
86
+ amounts or ranges.
87
+ - **Limits:** Categories overlap and management labels may be unreliable; unbounded
88
+ maintenance or restrictions leave distributability unresolved.
89
+ - **Source basis:**
90
+ - **Berkshire Hathaway 1986 annual letter** — *defines*: owner earnings.
91
+ - **Berkshire Hathaway 2007 annual letter** — *qualifies*: rapid growth low return
92
+ capital hunger is worst business model.
93
+ - **Corroboration:** EWB §V.C; OM1996; BH2023.
94
+
95
+ <a id="f04"></a>
96
+
97
+ ### F04 — Look Through Partial Ownership, Segments, and Holding Structures
98
+
99
+ - **Decision question:** What economics accrue through minority interests, segments, and
100
+ holding structures despite reported presentation?
101
+ - **Guidance:** Attribute relevant results to distinct businesses and interests,
102
+ reconcile to reported totals, and credit retained investee earnings only with
103
+ dilution, tax, and productive-deployment evidence.
104
+ - **Use when:** Minority holdings, conglomerates, equity-method interests, or materially
105
+ different segments.
106
+ - **Analytical actions:** Map ownership and segments; calculate look-through economics,
107
+ taxes, and dilution; reconcile to consolidated reporting.
108
+ - **Output:** A look-through and segment schedule with ownership, reported treatment,
109
+ economic attribution, and differences.
110
+ - **Limits:** Retention can destroy value and segment definitions can obscure economics;
111
+ inadequate data leaves attribution unresolved.
112
+ - **Source basis:**
113
+ - **Berkshire Hathaway 1997 annual letter** — *defines*: look through earnings.
114
+ - **Berkshire Hathaway 1985 annual letter** — *supports*: segment data essential for
115
+ multiline business analysis.
116
+ - **Corroboration:** EWB §V.B; EWB §V.F; OM1996; BH2014.
117
+
118
+ <a id="f05"></a>
119
+
120
+ ### F05 — Build a Reconciled Normalized Earning-Power Base
121
+
122
+ - **Decision question:** What recurring earning power belongs to each distinct business
123
+ across a representative period?
124
+ - **Guidance:** Bridge unusual, market-driven, cyclical, and acquisition effects without
125
+ erasing genuine costs; preserve reconciliation and period.
126
+ - **Use when:** Before valuation or comparison when results contain cycles, unusual
127
+ items, marks, acquisitions, or heterogeneous segments.
128
+ - **Analytical actions:** Reconcile by segment and period; classify adjustments; produce
129
+ base and adverse normalized ranges.
130
+ - **Output:** A normalized earning-power bridge by segment, period, and adjustment with
131
+ reconciled totals.
132
+ - **Limits:** Normalization can cherry-pick and structural change can make history
133
+ unrepresentative; an unbounded cycle leaves the base unresolved.
134
+ - **Source basis:**
135
+ - **Berkshire Hathaway 1983 annual letter** — *implements*: separate operating
136
+ earnings from unusual gains.
137
+ - **Berkshire Hathaway 2003 annual letter** — *implements*: analyze diversified
138
+ enterprises by economic segment and through time.
139
+ - **Corroboration:** BH2014; BH2022.
140
+
141
+ <a id="f06"></a>
142
+
143
+ ### F06 — Measure Returns on Tangible and Incremental Capital
144
+
145
+ - **Decision question:** What normalized unleveraged returns does the business earn on
146
+ required tangible capital, and what has additional capital produced?
147
+ - **Guidance:** Measure historical tangible and incremental returns independently of
148
+ leverage and acquisition premiums; keep measurement separate from prospective
149
+ durability and value.
150
+ - **Use when:** Business quality, reinvestment, growth value, or capital intensity is
151
+ material.
152
+ - **Analytical actions:** Reconcile operating profit and tangible capital; calculate
153
+ incremental returns over defensible intervals; separate organic investment,
154
+ acquisitions, leverage, and goodwill.
155
+ - **Output:** A historical return schedule with denominators, intervals, adjustments,
156
+ and sensitivities.
157
+ - **Limits:** Denominators and lags are judgmental and historical returns may not
158
+ persist; an indefensible bridge remains unresolved.
159
+ - **Source basis:**
160
+ - **Berkshire Hathaway 1992 annual letter** — *supports*: best and worst businesses by
161
+ incremental capital returns.
162
+ - **Berkshire Hathaway 2013 annual letter** — *supports*: returns on unleveraged net
163
+ tangible assets reveal business economics.
164
+ - **Corroboration:** EWB §V.C; OM1996; BH2014; LOW ch.20 (USAir capital-intensity case).
165
+
166
+ <a id="f07"></a>
167
+
168
+ ### F07 — Reconcile Cash Conversion and Hidden or Long-Duration Obligations
169
+
170
+ - **Decision question:** What disclosed or implied claims could absorb cash materially
171
+ beyond reported earnings or liabilities?
172
+ - **Guidance:** Reconcile cash conversion and inventory debt, reserves, pensions,
173
+ derivatives, collateral, guarantees, and uncertain promises by amount, timing, range,
174
+ and liquidity demand.
175
+ - **Use when:** Accruals, long-tail claims, pensions, derivatives, guarantees,
176
+ collateral, or refinancing obligations are material.
177
+ - **Analytical actions:** Build a cash bridge; inventory obligations and timing;
178
+ reconcile reported amounts to ranges and assumptions.
179
+ - **Output:** An obligation ledger with amount or range, timing, model dependence, cash
180
+ trigger, and unresolved exposure.
181
+ - **Limits:** Product mechanics matter and terminal cash can differ from interim marks;
182
+ do not invent absent ranges.
183
+ - **Source basis:**
184
+ - **Berkshire Hathaway 1992 annual letter** — *supports*: cash accounting can conceal
185
+ growing future liabilities.
186
+ - **Berkshire Hathaway 2003 annual letter** — *qualifies*: derivatives company
187
+ disclosures cannot reveal the full risk.
188
+ - **Corroboration:** EWB §V.H; BH2002.
189
+
190
+ <!-- This document follows common-doc-guidelines.md.
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+ See github.com/jlevy/practical-prose and review guidelines before editing.
192
+ -->