@v587d/capital-generation 2.10.1 → 2.11.0

package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/dcf-valuation/SKILL.md

@@ -1,109 +0,0 @@
----
-name: dcf-valuation
-description: Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) intrinsic value modeling with sensitivity analysis
----
-
-# DCF Valuation
-
-> **This skill has been merged into `stock-valuation`.** Use `/us-stock-analysis:stock-valuation` for comprehensive valuation including full DCF modeling, WACC decomposition, 3-scenario sensitivity analysis, and comparable company analysis.
-
----
-
-## Quick DCF Reference
-
-### WACC Formula and Components
-
-```
-WACC = Ke × (E/V) + Kd × (D/V)
-
-Where:
-  Ke  = Cost of Equity  = Rf + β × (Rm − Rf) + Size Premium
-  Kd  = After-Tax Cost of Debt  = (Interest Expense / Total Debt) × (1 − Tax Rate)
-  E/V = Equity Weight  = Equity Market Cap / (Equity Market Cap + Total Debt)
-  D/V = Debt Weight    = Total Debt / (Equity Market Cap + Total Debt)
-
-Typical WACC Ranges by Risk Profile:
-Risk Profile         WACC Range    Examples
-─────────────────────────────────────────────────────
-Low risk (utility)   6–8%          Regulated utilities, large cap staples
-Medium risk          8–11%         Large cap tech, established growth
-High risk            11–15%        Small cap, emerging market, cyclical
-Very high risk       15–20%+       Early-stage, distressed, pre-revenue
-```
-
-### Three-Scenario Names and Default Probabilities
-
-```
-Scenario    Probability    Narrative
-Bull         20%           Market share gains, margin expansion, favorable macro
-Base         60%           Historical trend continuation, guidance-aligned
-Bear         20%           Competitive pressure, margin compression, macro headwinds
-
-Probability-Weighted IV = (20% × Bull IV) + (60% × Base IV) + (20% × Bear IV)
-```
-
-### 5×5 Sensitivity Table Template
-
-```
-Sensitivity Table — Intrinsic Value per Share ($)
-              Terminal Growth Rate
-WACC     1.0%    1.5%    2.0%    2.5%    3.0%
-6.0%     $xxx    $xxx    $xxx    $xxx    $xxx
-7.0%     $xxx    $xxx    $xxx    $xxx    $xxx
-8.0%     $xxx    $xxx    $xxx    $xxx    $xxx  ← Base Case
-9.0%     $xxx    $xxx    $xxx    $xxx    $xxx
-10.0%    $xxx    $xxx    $xxx    $xxx    $xxx
-```
-
-### Terminal Value Formula
-
-```
-Gordon Growth Model:  TV = FCF₁₀ × (1 + g) / (WACC − g)
-Exit Multiple Method: TV = FCFₙ × (EV / FCF exit multiple)
-
-Rule: Never set g > WACC. Flag if TV > 80% of total Enterprise Value.
-```
-
----
-
-## Standard Signal Output
-
-All analysis concludes with this standardized block:
-
-```
-## Thesis Invalidation
-
-After delivering the analysis signal, specify what would reverse it:
-
-**If signal is BULLISH — thesis breaks if:**
-- FCF turns negative for 2 consecutive quarters OR WACC rises >200bps unexpectedly
-- [One or two more triggers drawn from this analysis's own drivers, each with a threshold]
-
-**If signal is BEARISH — thesis breaks if:**
-- FCF growth accelerates >20% above model assumptions OR interest rates fall >100bps
-- [One or two more triggers drawn from this analysis's own drivers, each with a threshold]
-
-**Re-run this analysis when:**
-- [ ] Next earnings release
-- [ ] Price moves ±15% from current level
-- [ ] 60 days have elapsed
-- [ ] Material news event (acquisition, leadership change, regulatory decision)
-
-╔══════════════════════════════════════════════╗
-║              INVESTMENT SIGNAL               ║
-╠══════════════════════════════════════════════╣
-║ Signal:      BULLISH / NEUTRAL / BEARISH     ║
-║ Confidence:  HIGH / MEDIUM / LOW             ║
-║ Horizon:     SHORT / MEDIUM / LONG-TERM      ║
-║ Score:       X.X / 10                        ║
-╠══════════════════════════════════════════════╣
-║ Action:      BUY / HOLD / SELL               ║
-║ Conviction:  STRONG / MODERATE / WEAK        ║
-╚══════════════════════════════════════════════╝
-```
-
-Score Guide: 8.0–10.0 Strongly Bullish | 6.0–7.9 Moderately Bullish | 4.0–5.9 Neutral | 2.0–3.9 Moderately Bearish | 0.0–1.9 Strongly Bearish
-Confidence: HIGH (strong data, clear signals) | MEDIUM (mixed signals) | LOW (limited data, conflicting signals)
-Horizon: SHORT-TERM (1 week–3 months) | MEDIUM-TERM (3 months–1 year) | LONG-TERM (1+ years)
-
-**Disclaimer:** Educational analysis only. Not financial advice.

package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/full-report/SKILL.md

@@ -1,301 +0,0 @@
----
-name: full-report
-description: Run InvestSkill analysis modules on a stock at configurable depth and compile a professional HTML report saved to the output/ directory
----
-
-# Full Report — Comprehensive Stock Analysis Orchestrator
-
-Orchestrate InvestSkill analysis modules on one ticker at your chosen depth, synthesize findings into a unified investment thesis with composite scoring, and produce a standalone professional HTML report with interactive Chart.js visualizations.
-
-## Depth Flags
-
-Select how many modules to run with `--depth`:
-
-| Flag | Modules | Best For |
-|------|---------|----------|
-| `--depth quick` | 5 core modules | Rapid screen, time-constrained due diligence |
-| `--depth standard` | 10 modules | Balanced research before initiating a position |
-| `--depth comprehensive` | All 15 modules | Full pre-commitment due diligence (default) |
-
----
-
-## Module Sets by Depth
-
-### Quick (5 modules)
-
-| # | Module | Focus |
-|---|--------|-------|
-| 1 | `stock-eval` | Company overview, competitive position, relative valuation |
-| 2 | `technical-analysis` | MA, RSI, MACD, volume, support/resistance |
-| 3 | `stock-valuation` | DCF intrinsic value (bear/base/bull), P/E, EV/EBITDA, peer multiples |
-| 4 | `insider-trading` | SEC Form 4 patterns, net insider sentiment |
-| 5 | `earnings-call-analysis` | Management tone, guidance quality, key themes |
-
-### Standard (10 modules — Quick + 5 more)
-
-| # | Module | Focus |
-|---|--------|-------|
-| 6 | `institutional-ownership` | 13F holdings, smart money flows |
-| 7 | `competitor-analysis` | Moat, market share, Porter's Five Forces |
-| 8 | `sector-analysis` | Sector rotation, relative strength |
-| 9 | `options-analysis` | IV, Put/Call ratio, max pain, strategies |
-| 10 | `short-interest` | Short ratio, squeeze risk, days-to-cover |
-
-### Comprehensive (15 modules — Standard + 5 more)
-
-| # | Module | Focus |
-|---|--------|-------|
-| 11 | `bear-case` | Short-seller red-team, Thesis-Killers, downside target |
-| 12 | `catalyst-calendar` | Dated events in the next 90 days and their expected impact |
-| 13 | `economics-analysis` | Macro environment, rate sensitivity |
-| 14 | `financial-report-analyst` | 10-K/10-Q deep dive, risk factors |
-| 15 | `dividend-analysis` | Yield, payout ratio, sustainability |
-
----
-
-## Research Process (5 Phases)
-
-Modules are grouped into phases regardless of depth. Earlier phases inform later-phase assumptions.
-
-### Phase 1 — Business & Competitive Foundation
-
-Establish qualitative and quantitative foundation before attempting valuation.
-
-- **stock-eval** — Company overview, competitive position, relative valuation vs. peers
-- **competitor-analysis** *(standard+)* — Moat depth, Porter's Five Forces, pricing power
-
-Output: **Business Quality Score (0–10)**
-Score reflects durability of competitive advantages, financial health, and consistency of returns.
-
-### Phase 2 — Valuation
-
-Determine intrinsic and relative worth of the business.
-
-- **stock-valuation** — DCF intrinsic value with Bull/Base/Bear scenarios, plus P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/S, P/FCF peer multiples
-
-Output: **Valuation Score (0–10)** — 10 = deep discount to intrinsic value; 5 = fair value; 0 = extreme overvaluation.
-
-### Phase 3 — Market Signals
-
-Understand what sophisticated market participants are signaling.
-
-- **insider-trading** — SEC Form 4 patterns, net insider sentiment
-- **institutional-ownership** *(standard+)* — Smart money 13F changes, concentration
-- **earnings-call-analysis** — Management tone, guidance quality, forward signals
-
-Output: **Market Signal Score (0–10)** — High = insider buying + institutional accumulation + positive management tone.
-
-### Phase 4 — Technical Timing
-
-Identify current technical setup to optimize entry timing.
-
-- **technical-analysis** — Trend structure, support/resistance, volume, momentum
-- **sector-analysis** *(standard+)* — Sector rotation, relative strength vs. benchmark
-
-Output: **Technical Setup Score (0–10)** — Strong (8–10), Moderate (4–7), Weak (0–3).
-
-### Phase 5 — Risk Assessment
-
-Quantify downside risks and positioning pressure.
-
-- **short-interest** *(standard+)* — Short positioning, days-to-cover, squeeze risk
-- **options-analysis** *(standard+)* — Implied volatility, put/call ratios, options flow
-- **economics-analysis** *(comprehensive)* — Macro environment, rate sensitivity
-- **financial-report-analyst** *(comprehensive)* — 10-K/10-Q risk factors
-- **bear-case** *(comprehensive)* — Short-seller red-team: Thesis-Killers and a downside target. Its downside target sets the Bear scenario in the Valuation Summary and Exit Strategy, its Thesis-Killers become the Bear Case section of the thesis narrative, and the Thesis Invalidation checks whether they are refuted
-- **catalyst-calendar** *(comprehensive)* — Dated events in the next 90 days and their expected price impact. High-impact binary events lower the Risk Profile score, and the dated events populate "next catalyst dates" in the Monitoring Plan
-
-Output: **Risk Profile Score (0–10)** — Inverse of risk: Low risk = high score (8–10), High risk = low score (0–3).
-
----
-
-## Composite Scoring Framework
-
-```
-Full Report Score = Weighted Composite
-
-Component                Weight    Sub-Score (0-10)
-─────────────────────────────────────────────────────
-Business Quality          25%      [Phase 1 modules]
-Valuation                 25%      [Phase 2 modules]
-Market Signals            20%      [Phase 3 modules]
-Technical Setup           15%      [Phase 4 modules]
-Risk Profile              15%      [Phase 5 modules]
-─────────────────────────────────────────────────────
-COMPOSITE SCORE          100%      X.X / 10
-
-Composite Interpretation:
-8.0–10.0  → Strong Buy   (all signals aligned)
-6.5–7.9   → Buy          (most signals positive)
-5.0–6.4   → Hold/Watch   (mixed signals)
-3.5–4.9   → Underweight  (mostly negative signals)
-0.0–3.4   → Sell/Avoid   (strong negative signals)
-```
-
-Sub-score derivation:
-- Business Quality: average of moat score (competitor-analysis) + financial strength (stock-eval)
-- Valuation: 10 = deep discount to intrinsic value; 5 = at fair value; 0 = extreme overvaluation
-- Market Signals: weighted average of insider, institutional, and earnings call scores
-- Technical Setup: Strong=8–10, Moderate=4–7, Weak=0–3
-- Risk Profile: inverse of risk — Low risk = 8–10, High risk = 0–3; at comprehensive depth this includes the `bear-case` downside severity and the `catalyst-calendar` event risk
-
-When running quick or standard depth, scores for missing modules default to neutral (5.0) and are flagged as "not assessed" in the scorecard.
-
----
-
-## Conflict Resolution
-
-When signals conflict across modules, apply these rules:
-
-- **Fundamental overrides technical**: Business quality and intrinsic value take precedence over short-term price action.
-- **Consensus overrides outlier**: When 4 of 5 phases agree on direction, document the outlier but do not let it dominate the composite score.
-- **Document all conflicts explicitly**: Never suppress conflicting signals. Present the full bull and bear case and explain how the weighting resolves the conflict.
-- **Flag unresolvable conflicts**: When signals are deeply contradictory (e.g., strong fundamentals + extreme overvaluation + heavy insider selling), flag as "Conflicted — Monitor Only" until resolution.
-
----
-
-## Investment Thesis Narrative
-
-Every full-report output must include a narrative investment thesis structured as:
-
-1. **Investment Thesis** (2–3 paragraphs): What does the company do, why is it a compelling or poor investment now, and what is the key insight driving the thesis?
-2. **Bull Case** (3–5 quantifiable reasons with supporting evidence from phase outputs)
-3. **Bear Case** (3–5 specific risks with probability assessment and potential intrinsic value impact)
-4. **Composite Score Card** (visual table with all component scores, weighted scores, and interpretation)
-5. **Valuation Summary** (intrinsic value per share, current price, margin of safety, upside/downside % per scenario)
-6. **Entry Strategy** (technical setup description, ideal entry range, position sizing: Aggressive 5–7% / Moderate 2–4% / Starter 1–2%)
-7. **Exit Strategy** (base/bull/bear price targets, stop-loss level, time horizon)
-8. **Monitoring Plan** (key metrics to track quarterly, thesis-changing events, early warning signals, next catalyst dates)
-
----
-
-## HTML Report Structure
-
-The output file is a standalone HTML document (no external dependencies except CDN Chart.js):
-
-- **Cover page** — ticker, price, date, depth flag used, overall composite score, recommendation
-- **Sidebar TOC** — sticky navigation linking to each section
-- **Analysis sections** — one per executed module plus final synthesis
-- **Interactive charts** — MA overlay, RSI, MACD, volume, composite score radar, phase score bar
-- **Composite Score Card** — weighted multi-factor scorecard with color coding
-- **Signal block** — standardized investment signal at report end
-
-### Design Principles
-
-- Clean, minimal design — white background, navy accents, Inter/system font
-- Data-dense tables with clear visual hierarchy
-- Color coding: green = bullish, amber = neutral, red = bearish
-- Print-friendly (no fixed sidebars when printing)
-- Self-contained: one `.html` file, no local assets
-
----
-
-## Usage
-
-```
-/full-report AAPL
-/full-report NVDA --depth quick
-/full-report MSFT --depth standard
-/full-report TSLA --depth comprehensive --lang zh-TW
-/full-report AMZN --output ~/Desktop/
-```
-
-**Arguments:**
-- `<TICKER>` — required, any US-listed stock
-- `--depth` — `quick` | `standard` | `comprehensive` (default: `comprehensive`)
-- `--lang` — output language, default `en`, supports `zh-TW`, `zh-CN`, `ja`
-- `--output` — custom save path, default `output/`
-
----
-
-## Output File Naming
-
-```
-output/<TICKER>_report_<YYYY-MM-DD>.html
-```
-
-Example: `output/AAPL_report_2025-06-19.html`
-
----
-
-## Workflow
-
-1. Parse `--depth` flag and determine which modules to run
-2. Gather all available data for `<TICKER>` (financials, price, filings, macro)
-3. Execute modules in phase order; each phase's output informs the next
-4. Compute composite weighted score (0–10) using framework above
-5. Build investment thesis narrative with bull/bear case
-6. Render complete HTML with all sections, charts, and scorecard
-7. Write file to output path and confirm location
-
----
-
-## Data Verification
-
-**Open the report with a `Data & Sources` header** (see [Data & Accuracy](https://yennanliu.github.io/InvestSkill/data-and-accuracy.html)) so provenance is explicit:
-
-```
-Data & Sources
-  As of:      <date the figures represent>
-  Source:     <primary docs — SEC EDGAR 10-K/10-Q, company IR, FRED, …>
-  Retrieval:  <pasted by user | web/tool retrieval | model memory>
-  Confidence: <HIGH | MEDIUM | LOW>
-```
-
-Before rendering the final report, verify:
-- The `Data & Sources` header is present and the Retrieval/Confidence are honest (flag "model memory" as LOW)
-- All executed modules returned scores (not blank)
-- Scores are within 0–10 range
-- Weighted composite arithmetic is correct (weights sum to 100%)
-- Missing modules for quick/standard depth are flagged as "not assessed"
-- No data older than 90 days used without explicit warning
-
-**Then run `fact-check` on the composite** (every figure the modules produced, verified against the filing and market data, with citations), **and hand `result-validator` two separate things**: the *corrected composite* as the analysis to validate (so its "Original Score" is the investment score, not the Verification Score), and the fact-check *ledger and Verification Score* as evidence for its Data Quality dimension. Include both scores in the report footer, labelled — a composite thesis should never ship without this verification-and-validation pass.
-
----
-
-## Thesis Invalidation
-
-The composite thesis is only as good as its weakest well-weighted module. After the final synthesis, state what would reverse the composite call:
-
-**If the composite is BULLISH — thesis breaks if:**
-- Any module weighted ≥ 15% flips from BULLISH to BEARISH at the next re-run (name the module and the metric that would flip it)
-- The `bear-case` module's Thesis-Killers are *not* refuted — a bull composite that cannot answer its own red-team is not bullish, it is unexamined
-- Price rises far enough that the valuation modules' fair-value range is exceeded while the fundamental modules are unchanged (multiple expansion doing all the work)
-
-**If the composite is BEARISH — thesis breaks if:**
-- The specific deterioration that drove the low-scoring modules reverses (margins re-expand, guidance is raised, insider selling stops)
-- Valuation falls below the bear-case downside target with fundamentals stable (the bad news is priced)
-- Two or more independent modules (e.g. `insider-trading` + `institutional-ownership`) turn positive together
-
-**Re-run this report when:**
-- [ ] Next earnings release (every module's inputs change)
-- [ ] Price moves ±15% from the level in the `Data & Sources` header
-- [ ] Any single module's signal flips
-- [ ] 90 days have elapsed
-
----
-
-## Output Format
-
-End with the standard signal block after the final synthesis section:
-
-```
-╔══════════════════════════════════════════════╗
-║              INVESTMENT SIGNAL               ║
-╠══════════════════════════════════════════════╣
-║ Signal:      BULLISH / NEUTRAL / BEARISH     ║
-║ Confidence:  HIGH / MEDIUM / LOW             ║
-║ Horizon:     SHORT / MEDIUM / LONG-TERM      ║
-║ Score:       X.X / 10                        ║
-╠══════════════════════════════════════════════╣
-║ Action:      BUY / HOLD / SELL               ║
-║ Conviction:  STRONG / MODERATE / WEAK        ║
-╚══════════════════════════════════════════════╝
-```
-
-Score Guide: 8.0–10.0 Strongly Bullish | 6.0–7.9 Moderately Bullish | 4.0–5.9 Neutral | 2.0–3.9 Moderately Bearish | 0.0–1.9 Strongly Bearish
-Confidence: HIGH (strong data, clear signals) | MEDIUM (mixed signals) | LOW (limited data, conflicting signals)
-Horizon: SHORT-TERM (1 week–3 months) | MEDIUM-TERM (3 months–1 year) | LONG-TERM (1+ years)
-
-**Disclaimer:** Educational analysis only. Not financial advice.

package/selected-skills/InvestSkill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/fundamental-analysis/SKILL.md

@@ -1,67 +0,0 @@
----
-name: fundamental-analysis
-description: Deep fundamental analysis of US stocks using financial statements
----
-
-# Fundamental Analysis
-
-> **This skill has been merged into `stock-eval`.** Use `/us-stock-analysis:stock-eval` for comprehensive fundamental + quality + valuation analysis.
-
-## Quick Reference — Key Ratios
-
-| Ratio | Formula | What It Measures |
-|-------|---------|-----------------|
-| **P/E** (Price-to-Earnings) | Market Price / EPS | How much investors pay per dollar of earnings; compare to peers and history |
-| **P/B** (Price-to-Book) | Market Price / Book Value per Share | Premium over net asset value; useful for financials and asset-heavy businesses |
-| **P/S** (Price-to-Sales) | Market Cap / Revenue | Valuation relative to revenue; useful when earnings are negative or depressed |
-| **EV/EBITDA** | Enterprise Value / EBITDA | Capital-structure-neutral earnings multiple; standard M&A and cross-sector benchmark |
-| **ROE** (Return on Equity) | Net Income / Shareholders' Equity | Profitability relative to equity book value; decompose with DuPont for quality assessment |
-| **ROIC** (Return on Invested Capital) | NOPAT / Invested Capital | True economic return on all capital deployed; compare to WACC to assess value creation |
-| **Current Ratio** | Current Assets / Current Liabilities | Short-term liquidity; >1.5x generally healthy; <1.0x signals potential liquidity stress |
-| **D/E** (Debt-to-Equity) | Total Debt / Shareholders' Equity | Financial leverage; higher ratio = more risk but also more return amplification |
-
-For the full analysis framework — income statement line-item breakdown, working capital cycle, DuPont decomposition, cash conversion cycle, Porter's Five Forces, Piotroski F-Score, DCF, ROIC/WACC, and risk matrix — use `/us-stock-analysis:stock-eval`.
-
----
-
-## Standard Signal Output
-
-All analysis concludes with this standardized block:
-
-```
-## Thesis Invalidation
-
-After delivering the analysis signal, specify what would reverse it:
-
-**If signal is BULLISH — thesis breaks if:**
-- revenue growth decelerates below 5% for 2 consecutive quarters AND gross margin contracts >200bps
-- [One or two more triggers drawn from this analysis's own drivers, each with a threshold]
-
-**If signal is BEARISH — thesis breaks if:**
-- revenue reaccelerates >15% AND margin expansion resumes
-- [One or two more triggers drawn from this analysis's own drivers, each with a threshold]
-
-**Re-run this analysis when:**
-- [ ] Next earnings release
-- [ ] Price moves ±15% from current level
-- [ ] 60 days have elapsed
-- [ ] Material news event (acquisition, leadership change, regulatory decision)
-
-╔══════════════════════════════════════════════╗
-║              INVESTMENT SIGNAL               ║
-╠══════════════════════════════════════════════╣
-║ Signal:      BULLISH / NEUTRAL / BEARISH     ║
-║ Confidence:  HIGH / MEDIUM / LOW             ║
-║ Horizon:     SHORT / MEDIUM / LONG-TERM      ║
-║ Score:       X.X / 10                        ║
-╠══════════════════════════════════════════════╣
-║ Action:      BUY / HOLD / SELL               ║
-║ Conviction:  STRONG / MODERATE / WEAK        ║
-╚══════════════════════════════════════════════╝
-```
-
-Score Guide: 8.0–10.0 Strongly Bullish | 6.0–7.9 Moderately Bullish | 4.0–5.9 Neutral | 2.0–3.9 Moderately Bearish | 0.0–1.9 Strongly Bearish
-Confidence: HIGH (strong data, clear signals) | MEDIUM (mixed signals) | LOW (limited data, conflicting signals)
-Horizon: SHORT-TERM (1 week–3 months) | MEDIUM-TERM (3 months–1 year) | LONG-TERM (1+ years)
-
-**Disclaimer:** Educational analysis only. Not financial advice.