@triedotdev/mcp 1.0.118 → 1.0.120

package/dist/{chunk-OMCEUJ5I.js → chunk-5TQ7J7UI.js}

@@ -3,7 +3,7 @@ import {
 } from "./chunk-IQBHPTV7.js";
 import {
   getHypothesisEngine
-} from "./chunk-I7XKF5XD.js";
+} from "./chunk-GPLRFTMB.js";
 import {
   getInsightStore
 } from "./chunk-Y52SNUW5.js";
@@ -2143,4 +2143,4 @@ export {
   GuardianAgent,
   getGuardian
 };
-//# sourceMappingURL=chunk-OMCEUJ5I.js.map
+//# sourceMappingURL=chunk-5TQ7J7UI.js.map

package/dist/{chunk-I7XKF5XD.js → chunk-GPLRFTMB.js}

@@ -697,10 +697,26 @@ function getHypothesisEngine(projectPath) {
 function clearHypothesisEngines() {
   hypothesisEngines.clear();
 }
+async function gatherEvidenceForHypothesis(hypothesisId, projectPath) {
+  const engine = getHypothesisEngine(projectPath);
+  const guardianState = getGuardianState(projectPath);
+  await guardianState.load();
+  const hypothesis = guardianState.getAllHypotheses().find((h) => h.id === hypothesisId);
+  if (!hypothesis) {
+    throw new Error(`Hypothesis ${hypothesisId} not found`);
+  }
+  const analysis = await engine.analyzeHypothesis(hypothesis);
+  return analysis.recentEvidence.map((e) => ({
+    supports: e.type === "supporting",
+    description: e.description,
+    weight: e.weight
+  }));
+}
 
 export {
   HypothesisEngine,
   getHypothesisEngine,
-  clearHypothesisEngines
+  clearHypothesisEngines,
+  gatherEvidenceForHypothesis
 };
-//# sourceMappingURL=chunk-I7XKF5XD.js.map
+//# sourceMappingURL=chunk-GPLRFTMB.js.map

package/dist/{chunk-I7XKF5XD.js.map → chunk-GPLRFTMB.js.map}

@@ -1 +1 @@
-{"version":3,"sources":["../src/guardian/hypothesis.ts"],"sourcesContent":["/**\n * Hypothesis System - Self-improving hypothesis generation and validation\n * \n * Phase 3 of Guardian Agency Plan: Predictive Intelligence\n * \n * Features:\n * - Generate hypotheses from patterns\n * - Track evidence for/against hypotheses\n * - Auto-validate/invalidate based on evidence\n * - Adjust confidence over time\n * - Learn from hypothesis outcomes\n */\n\nimport type { Hypothesis } from './guardian-state.js';\nimport { getGuardianState } from './guardian-state.js';\nimport { getInsightStore, type GuardianInsight } from './insight-store.js';\nimport { searchIssues } from '../memory/issue-store.js';\nimport { dirname } from 'path';\n\n// ============================================================================\n// Types\n// ============================================================================\n\n/**\n * Hypothesis template for auto-generation\n */\nexport interface HypothesisTemplate {\n  category: 'timing' | 'pattern' | 'team' | 'code' | 'general';\n  statement: string;\n  testCriteria: string;\n  minConfidence: number;\n  dataRequired: string[];\n}\n\n/**\n * Evidence for a hypothesis\n */\nexport interface HypothesisEvidence {\n  type: 'supporting' | 'contradicting';\n  description: string;\n  weight: number; // 0-1\n  timestamp: string;\n}\n\n/**\n * Hypothesis analysis result\n */\nexport interface HypothesisAnalysis {\n  hypothesis: Hypothesis;\n  recentEvidence: HypothesisEvidence[];\n  confidenceChange: number;\n  statusChange?: 'validated' | 'invalidated';\n  actionRequired: boolean;\n}\n\n// ============================================================================\n// Hypothesis Templates\n// ============================================================================\n\nconst HYPOTHESIS_TEMPLATES: HypothesisTemplate[] = [\n  {\n    category: 'timing',\n    statement: 'Issues spike after weekend deployments',\n    testCriteria: 'Compare Monday issue counts to other days',\n    minConfidence: 0.3,\n    dataRequired: ['issue_timestamps', 'deployment_data'],\n  },\n  {\n    category: 'timing',\n    statement: 'Code quality declines on Fridays',\n    testCriteria: 'Compare Friday issue introduction rate to weekly average',\n    minConfidence: 0.3,\n    dataRequired: ['issue_timestamps'],\n  },\n  {\n    category: 'pattern',\n    statement: 'Auth-related code has the highest incident rate',\n    testCriteria: 'Compare auth/ issue count to other directories',\n    minConfidence: 0.4,\n    dataRequired: ['issue_files'],\n  },\n  {\n    category: 'pattern',\n    statement: 'Security issues cluster in specific directories',\n    testCriteria: 'Check if security issues are concentrated (>50% in <3 dirs)',\n    minConfidence: 0.4,\n    dataRequired: ['issue_files', 'issue_agents'],\n  },\n  {\n    category: 'code',\n    statement: 'Files with multiple authors have more issues',\n    testCriteria: 'Correlate file author count with issue count',\n    minConfidence: 0.4,\n    dataRequired: ['issue_files', 'git_blame'],\n  },\n  {\n    category: 'code',\n    statement: 'Recently modified files are more likely to have issues',\n    testCriteria: 'Compare issue rate for recent vs old files',\n    minConfidence: 0.3,\n    dataRequired: ['issue_timestamps', 'file_modification_times'],\n  },\n  {\n    category: 'pattern',\n    statement: 'Critical issues often come in clusters',\n    testCriteria: 'Check temporal clustering of critical issues',\n    minConfidence: 0.3,\n    dataRequired: ['issue_timestamps', 'issue_severities'],\n  },\n];\n\n// ============================================================================\n// HypothesisEngine Class\n// ============================================================================\n\n/**\n * Engine for generating and validating hypotheses\n */\nexport class HypothesisEngine {\n  private projectPath: string;\n  private guardianState;\n  private insightStore;\n  \n  constructor(projectPath: string) {\n    this.projectPath = projectPath;\n    this.guardianState = getGuardianState(projectPath);\n    this.insightStore = getInsightStore(projectPath);\n  }\n  \n  /**\n   * Create a new hypothesis\n   */\n  async createHypothesis(statement: string, options?: {\n    category?: Hypothesis['category'];\n    testCriteria?: string;\n    initialConfidence?: number;\n  }): Promise<Hypothesis> {\n    const hypothesis: Hypothesis = {\n      id: `hyp-${Date.now()}-${Math.random().toString(36).slice(2, 8)}`,\n      statement,\n      confidence: options?.initialConfidence ?? 0.5,\n      status: 'proposed',\n      evidence: [],\n      createdAt: new Date().toISOString(),\n      updatedAt: new Date().toISOString(),\n      testCriteria: options?.testCriteria,\n      category: options?.category ?? 'general',\n    };\n    \n    await this.guardianState.addHypothesis(hypothesis);\n    \n    return hypothesis;\n  }\n  \n  /**\n   * Auto-generate hypotheses based on detected patterns\n   */\n  async autoGenerateHypotheses(): Promise<Hypothesis[]> {\n    const generated: Hypothesis[] = [];\n    \n    try {\n      // Get existing hypotheses to avoid duplicates\n      await this.guardianState.load();\n      const existing = this.guardianState.getAllHypotheses();\n      const existingStatements = new Set(existing.map(h => h.statement.toLowerCase()));\n      \n      // Get data for pattern detection\n      const issues = await searchIssues('', {\n        workDir: this.projectPath,\n        limit: 500,\n        includeResolved: true,\n      });\n      \n      if (issues.length < 10) {\n        return generated; // Not enough data\n      }\n      \n      // Check each template for applicability\n      for (const template of HYPOTHESIS_TEMPLATES) {\n        // Skip if already have similar hypothesis\n        if (existingStatements.has(template.statement.toLowerCase())) {\n          continue;\n        }\n        \n        // Check if we have enough evidence to propose this hypothesis\n        const evidence = await this.gatherInitialEvidence(template, issues);\n        \n        if (evidence.length > 0 && evidence[0]!.weight >= template.minConfidence) {\n          const hypothesis = await this.createHypothesis(template.statement, {\n            category: template.category,\n            testCriteria: template.testCriteria,\n            initialConfidence: evidence[0]!.weight,\n          });\n          \n          // Add initial evidence\n          for (const e of evidence) {\n            await this.guardianState.addEvidence(hypothesis.id, e);\n          }\n          \n          generated.push(hypothesis);\n          \n          // Limit to 2 new hypotheses per run\n          if (generated.length >= 2) break;\n        }\n      }\n      \n    } catch (error) {\n      console.error('Failed to auto-generate hypotheses:', error);\n    }\n    \n    return generated;\n  }\n  \n  /**\n   * Use Claude AI to generate novel hypotheses from observed patterns\n   * This enables fully agentic hypothesis creation based on actual codebase observations\n   */\n  async generateHypothesesWithAI(context: {\n    recentIssues?: any[];\n    patterns?: string[];\n    observations?: string[];\n  }): Promise<Hypothesis[]> {\n    const { isAIAvailable, runAIAnalysis } = await import('../ai/client.js');\n    \n    if (!isAIAvailable()) {\n      return []; // Fall back to template-based generation\n    }\n    \n    const generated: Hypothesis[] = [];\n    \n    try {\n      // Get existing hypotheses to avoid duplicates\n      await this.guardianState.load();\n      const existing = this.guardianState.getAllHypotheses();\n      const existingStatements = existing.map(h => h.statement);\n      \n      // Get recent issue data\n      const issues = context.recentIssues || await searchIssues('', {\n        workDir: this.projectPath,\n        limit: 100,\n        includeResolved: true,\n      });\n      \n      if (issues.length < 5) {\n        return generated; // Not enough data for AI\n      }\n      \n      // Build context for Claude\n      const issuesSummary = this.summarizeIssuesForAI(issues);\n      const patternsSummary = context.patterns?.join('\\n') || 'No explicit patterns provided';\n      const observationsSummary = context.observations?.join('\\n') || 'No explicit observations provided';\n      \n      const prompt = `You are an AI agent observing a codebase over time. Based on the patterns below, generate 1-3 testable hypotheses about this codebase's quality patterns.\n\n## Recent Issues Summary\n${issuesSummary}\n\n## Observed Patterns\n${patternsSummary}\n\n## Additional Observations\n${observationsSummary}\n\n## Existing Hypotheses (avoid duplicates)\n${existingStatements.length > 0 ? existingStatements.map(s => `- ${s}`).join('\\n') : 'None yet'}\n\nGenerate hypotheses that are:\n1. Specific and testable (can be validated with data)\n2. Actionable (if validated, can guide improvements)\n3. Novel (not duplicates of existing hypotheses)\n4. Based on real patterns in the data above\n\nReturn ONLY a JSON array of hypotheses. Each hypothesis must have:\n- \"statement\": Clear, concise hypothesis statement\n- \"category\": One of: \"timing\", \"pattern\", \"team\", \"code\", \"general\"\n- \"testCriteria\": How to test this hypothesis\n- \"confidence\": Initial confidence (0-1)\n- \"reasoning\": Why you think this hypothesis is worth testing\n\nExample format:\n[\n  {\n    \"statement\": \"Authentication code changes correlate with security issues\",\n    \"category\": \"pattern\",\n    \"testCriteria\": \"Track auth file changes and subsequent security issue rates\",\n    \"confidence\": 0.6,\n    \"reasoning\": \"65% of security issues occur in files modified in the past week\"\n  }\n]\n\nReturn empty array [] if no novel hypotheses can be generated from the data.`;\n      \n      const result = await runAIAnalysis({\n        systemPrompt: 'You are an expert code quality analyst who identifies patterns and generates testable hypotheses.',\n        userPrompt: prompt,\n        maxTokens: 1024,\n        temperature: 0.7, // Higher temperature for creative hypothesis generation\n      });\n      \n      if (!result.success || !result.content.trim()) {\n        return generated;\n      }\n      \n      // Parse AI response\n      let aiHypotheses: Array<{\n        statement: string;\n        category: Hypothesis['category'];\n        testCriteria: string;\n        confidence: number;\n        reasoning: string;\n      }> = [];\n      \n      try {\n        const cleaned = result.content.replace(/```json?\\n?|\\n?```/g, '').trim();\n        aiHypotheses = JSON.parse(cleaned);\n        if (!Array.isArray(aiHypotheses)) aiHypotheses = [];\n      } catch {\n        return generated; // AI response wasn't valid JSON\n      }\n      \n      // Create hypotheses from AI suggestions\n      for (const aiHypo of aiHypotheses.slice(0, 3)) {\n        // Check for duplicates\n        const isDuplicate = existingStatements.some(existing => \n          existing.toLowerCase().includes(aiHypo.statement.toLowerCase().slice(0, 30))\n        );\n        \n        if (isDuplicate) continue;\n        \n        const hypothesis = await this.createHypothesis(aiHypo.statement, {\n          category: aiHypo.category,\n          testCriteria: aiHypo.testCriteria,\n          initialConfidence: Math.max(0.3, Math.min(0.7, aiHypo.confidence)),\n        });\n        \n        // Add AI reasoning as initial evidence\n        await this.guardianState.addEvidence(hypothesis.id, {\n          type: 'supporting',\n          description: `AI observed: ${aiHypo.reasoning}`,\n          weight: aiHypo.confidence,\n          timestamp: new Date().toISOString(),\n        });\n        \n        generated.push(hypothesis);\n      }\n      \n    } catch (error) {\n      console.error('Failed to generate hypotheses with AI:', error);\n    }\n    \n    return generated;\n  }\n  \n  /**\n   * Summarize issues for AI context\n   */\n  private summarizeIssuesForAI(issues: Array<{ issue: any; score: number }>): string {\n    const totalIssues = issues.length;\n    \n    // Severity breakdown\n    const severityCounts: Record<string, number> = {};\n    for (const { issue } of issues) {\n      severityCounts[issue.severity] = (severityCounts[issue.severity] || 0) + 1;\n    }\n    \n    // Agent breakdown\n    const agentCounts: Record<string, number> = {};\n    for (const { issue } of issues) {\n      agentCounts[issue.agent] = (agentCounts[issue.agent] || 0) + 1;\n    }\n    \n    // File/directory patterns\n    const fileCounts: Record<string, number> = {};\n    for (const { issue } of issues) {\n      const dir = dirname(issue.file);\n      fileCounts[dir] = (fileCounts[dir] || 0) + 1;\n    }\n    \n    // Time patterns\n    const dayOfWeekCounts: Record<number, number> = {};\n    for (const { issue } of issues) {\n      const date = new Date(issue.timestamp);\n      const day = date.getDay();\n      dayOfWeekCounts[day] = (dayOfWeekCounts[day] || 0) + 1;\n    }\n    \n    const dayNames = ['Sun', 'Mon', 'Tue', 'Wed', 'Thu', 'Fri', 'Sat'];\n    const dayDistribution = Object.entries(dayOfWeekCounts)\n      .sort(([a], [b]) => Number(a) - Number(b))\n      .map(([day, count]) => `${dayNames[Number(day)]}: ${count}`)\n      .join(', ');\n    \n    const topDirs = Object.entries(fileCounts)\n      .sort(([, a], [, b]) => b - a)\n      .slice(0, 5)\n      .map(([dir, count]) => `${dir}: ${count}`)\n      .join(', ');\n    \n    const topAgents = Object.entries(agentCounts)\n      .sort(([, a], [, b]) => b - a)\n      .slice(0, 5)\n      .map(([agent, count]) => `${agent}: ${count}`)\n      .join(', ');\n    \n    return `Total Issues: ${totalIssues}\nSeverities: ${Object.entries(severityCounts).map(([s, c]) => `${s}=${c}`).join(', ')}\nTop Agents: ${topAgents}\nTop Directories: ${topDirs}\nDay Distribution: ${dayDistribution}`;\n  }\n  \n  /**\n   * Gather initial evidence for a hypothesis template\n   */\n  private async gatherInitialEvidence(\n    template: HypothesisTemplate,\n    issues: Array<{ issue: any; score: number }>\n  ): Promise<HypothesisEvidence[]> {\n    const evidence: HypothesisEvidence[] = [];\n    \n    switch (template.category) {\n      case 'timing':\n        evidence.push(...this.analyzeTimingPatterns(template, issues));\n        break;\n      case 'pattern':\n        evidence.push(...this.analyzeLocationPatterns(template, issues));\n        break;\n      case 'code':\n        evidence.push(...this.analyzeCodePatterns(template, issues));\n        break;\n    }\n    \n    return evidence;\n  }\n  \n  /**\n   * Analyze timing patterns in issues\n   */\n  private analyzeTimingPatterns(\n    template: HypothesisTemplate,\n    issues: Array<{ issue: any; score: number }>\n  ): HypothesisEvidence[] {\n    const evidence: HypothesisEvidence[] = [];\n    \n    // Analyze day-of-week patterns\n    const dayOfWeekCounts: Record<number, number> = {};\n    for (const { issue } of issues) {\n      const date = new Date(issue.timestamp);\n      const day = date.getDay();\n      dayOfWeekCounts[day] = (dayOfWeekCounts[day] || 0) + 1;\n    }\n    \n    // Check for Friday pattern\n    if (template.statement.includes('Friday')) {\n      const fridayCount = dayOfWeekCounts[5] || 0;\n      const avgOtherDays = (Object.values(dayOfWeekCounts).reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0) - fridayCount) / 4;\n      \n      if (fridayCount > avgOtherDays * 1.5) {\n        evidence.push({\n          type: 'supporting',\n          description: `Friday has ${((fridayCount / avgOtherDays - 1) * 100).toFixed(0)}% more issues than average`,\n          weight: Math.min(0.8, 0.3 + (fridayCount / avgOtherDays - 1) * 0.2),\n          timestamp: new Date().toISOString(),\n        });\n      } else {\n        evidence.push({\n          type: 'contradicting',\n          description: 'Friday issue count is not significantly higher',\n          weight: 0.3,\n          timestamp: new Date().toISOString(),\n        });\n      }\n    }\n    \n    // Check for Monday/weekend pattern\n    if (template.statement.includes('weekend') || template.statement.includes('Monday')) {\n      const mondayCount = dayOfWeekCounts[1] || 0;\n      const avgOtherDays = (Object.values(dayOfWeekCounts).reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0) - mondayCount) / 4;\n      \n      if (mondayCount > avgOtherDays * 1.5) {\n        evidence.push({\n          type: 'supporting',\n          description: `Monday has ${((mondayCount / avgOtherDays - 1) * 100).toFixed(0)}% more issues than average`,\n          weight: Math.min(0.8, 0.3 + (mondayCount / avgOtherDays - 1) * 0.2),\n          timestamp: new Date().toISOString(),\n        });\n      }\n    }\n    \n    return evidence;\n  }\n  \n  /**\n   * Analyze location patterns in issues\n   */\n  private analyzeLocationPatterns(\n    template: HypothesisTemplate,\n    issues: Array<{ issue: any; score: number }>\n  ): HypothesisEvidence[] {\n    const evidence: HypothesisEvidence[] = [];\n    \n    // Analyze directory distribution\n    const dirCounts: Record<string, number> = {};\n    for (const { issue } of issues) {\n      const dir = dirname(issue.file);\n      dirCounts[dir] = (dirCounts[dir] || 0) + 1;\n    }\n    \n    const sortedDirs = Object.entries(dirCounts)\n      .sort(([, a], [, b]) => b - a);\n    \n    // Check for auth pattern\n    if (template.statement.includes('Auth')) {\n      const authDirs = sortedDirs.filter(([dir]) => \n        dir.toLowerCase().includes('auth') || \n        dir.toLowerCase().includes('login') ||\n        dir.toLowerCase().includes('session')\n      );\n      \n      const authCount = authDirs.reduce((sum, [, count]) => sum + count, 0);\n      const percentage = (authCount / issues.length) * 100;\n      \n      if (percentage >= 20) {\n        evidence.push({\n          type: 'supporting',\n          description: `Auth-related code has ${percentage.toFixed(0)}% of issues`,\n          weight: Math.min(0.85, 0.4 + percentage / 100),\n          timestamp: new Date().toISOString(),\n        });\n      }\n    }\n    \n    // Check for clustering pattern\n    if (template.statement.includes('cluster')) {\n      const topThreeDirs = sortedDirs.slice(0, 3);\n      const topThreeCount = topThreeDirs.reduce((sum, [, count]) => sum + count, 0);\n      const percentage = (topThreeCount / issues.length) * 100;\n      \n      if (percentage >= 50) {\n        evidence.push({\n          type: 'supporting',\n          description: `Top 3 directories have ${percentage.toFixed(0)}% of issues`,\n          weight: Math.min(0.8, 0.3 + percentage / 100),\n          timestamp: new Date().toISOString(),\n        });\n      }\n    }\n    \n    return evidence;\n  }\n  \n  /**\n   * Analyze code patterns\n   */\n  private analyzeCodePatterns(\n    template: HypothesisTemplate,\n    issues: Array<{ issue: any; score: number }>\n  ): HypothesisEvidence[] {\n    const evidence: HypothesisEvidence[] = [];\n    \n    // Analyze temporal clustering (critical issues in bursts)\n    if (template.statement.includes('cluster')) {\n      const criticalIssues = issues.filter(r => r.issue.severity === 'critical');\n      \n      if (criticalIssues.length >= 3) {\n        // Check if critical issues are clustered in time\n        const timestamps = criticalIssues\n          .map(r => new Date(r.issue.timestamp).getTime())\n          .sort((a, b) => a - b);\n        \n        let clusteredCount = 0;\n        for (let i = 1; i < timestamps.length; i++) {\n          // If within 24 hours of previous\n          if (timestamps[i]! - timestamps[i - 1]! < 24 * 60 * 60 * 1000) {\n            clusteredCount++;\n          }\n        }\n        \n        const clusterRatio = clusteredCount / (timestamps.length - 1);\n        \n        if (clusterRatio >= 0.5) {\n          evidence.push({\n            type: 'supporting',\n            description: `${(clusterRatio * 100).toFixed(0)}% of critical issues occur within 24h of another`,\n            weight: Math.min(0.75, 0.3 + clusterRatio * 0.4),\n            timestamp: new Date().toISOString(),\n          });\n        }\n      }\n    }\n    \n    return evidence;\n  }\n  \n  /**\n   * Update confidence scores based on new data\n   */\n  async updateConfidenceFromOutcomes(): Promise<HypothesisAnalysis[]> {\n    const analyses: HypothesisAnalysis[] = [];\n    \n    try {\n      await this.guardianState.load();\n      const activeHypotheses = this.guardianState.getActiveHypotheses();\n      \n      for (const hypothesis of activeHypotheses) {\n        const analysis = await this.analyzeHypothesis(hypothesis);\n        analyses.push(analysis);\n        \n        // Create insight if hypothesis was validated or invalidated\n        if (analysis.statusChange && this.insightStore.canCreateInsight('hypothesis-update')) {\n          const insight = this.createHypothesisInsight(analysis);\n          await this.insightStore.addInsight(insight);\n          await this.insightStore.markInsightCreated('hypothesis-update');\n        }\n      }\n      \n      // Update hypothesis accuracy metric\n      await this.guardianState.updateHypothesisAccuracy();\n      \n    } catch (error) {\n      console.error('Failed to update hypothesis confidence:', error);\n    }\n    \n    return analyses;\n  }\n  \n  /**\n   * Analyze a single hypothesis\n   */\n  private async analyzeHypothesis(hypothesis: Hypothesis): Promise<HypothesisAnalysis> {\n    // Get recent issues for new evidence\n    const issues = await searchIssues('', {\n      workDir: this.projectPath,\n      limit: 100,\n      includeResolved: false,\n    });\n    \n    // Find the matching template\n    const template = HYPOTHESIS_TEMPLATES.find(t => \n      t.statement.toLowerCase() === hypothesis.statement.toLowerCase()\n    );\n    \n    const recentEvidence: HypothesisEvidence[] = [];\n    \n    if (template) {\n      recentEvidence.push(...await this.gatherInitialEvidence(template, issues));\n    } else {\n      // For user-created hypotheses, use semantic evidence gathering\n      recentEvidence.push(...this.gatherSemanticEvidence(hypothesis, issues));\n    }\n    \n    // Calculate confidence change\n    const oldConfidence = hypothesis.confidence;\n    let newConfidence = oldConfidence;\n    \n    for (const evidence of recentEvidence) {\n      if (evidence.type === 'supporting') {\n        newConfidence = Math.min(1, newConfidence + evidence.weight * 0.1);\n      } else {\n        newConfidence = Math.max(0, newConfidence - evidence.weight * 0.1);\n      }\n    }\n    \n    // Determine status change\n    let statusChange: 'validated' | 'invalidated' | undefined;\n    \n    if (newConfidence >= 0.8 && hypothesis.evidence.length >= 3) {\n      statusChange = 'validated';\n      await this.guardianState.updateHypothesis(hypothesis.id, {\n        status: 'validated',\n        confidence: newConfidence,\n        validatedAt: new Date().toISOString(),\n      });\n    } else if (newConfidence <= 0.2 && hypothesis.evidence.length >= 3) {\n      statusChange = 'invalidated';\n      await this.guardianState.updateHypothesis(hypothesis.id, {\n        status: 'invalidated',\n        confidence: newConfidence,\n      });\n    } else {\n      // Just update confidence\n      await this.guardianState.updateHypothesis(hypothesis.id, {\n        confidence: newConfidence,\n      });\n    }\n    \n    // Add new evidence\n    for (const evidence of recentEvidence) {\n      await this.guardianState.addEvidence(hypothesis.id, evidence);\n    }\n    \n    const analysis: HypothesisAnalysis = {\n      hypothesis: { ...hypothesis, confidence: newConfidence },\n      recentEvidence,\n      confidenceChange: newConfidence - oldConfidence,\n      actionRequired: statusChange !== undefined,\n    };\n    \n    if (statusChange) {\n      analysis.statusChange = statusChange;\n    }\n    \n    return analysis;\n  }\n  \n  /**\n   * Gather evidence for user-created hypotheses using semantic matching\n   * \n   * This enables agentic tracking for natural language hypotheses like:\n   * - \"Mondays have more bugs than Fridays\"\n   * - \"Code reviews reduce bug rate\"\n   * - \"Security issues cluster in auth code\"\n   */\n  private gatherSemanticEvidence(\n    hypothesis: Hypothesis,\n    issues: Array<{ issue: any; score: number }>\n  ): HypothesisEvidence[] {\n    const evidence: HypothesisEvidence[] = [];\n    const stmt = hypothesis.statement.toLowerCase();\n    \n    // Time-based hypotheses (days of week patterns)\n    if (stmt.includes('monday') || stmt.includes('friday') || stmt.includes('weekend') ||\n        stmt.includes('morning') || stmt.includes('afternoon')) {\n      const dayNames = ['sunday', 'monday', 'tuesday', 'wednesday', 'thursday', 'friday', 'saturday'];\n      const dayOfWeekCounts: Record<number, number> = { 0: 0, 1: 0, 2: 0, 3: 0, 4: 0, 5: 0, 6: 0 };\n      \n      for (const { issue } of issues) {\n        const date = new Date(issue.timestamp);\n        const day = date.getDay();\n        dayOfWeekCounts[day] = (dayOfWeekCounts[day] || 0) + 1;\n      }\n      \n      const totalIssues = Object.values(dayOfWeekCounts).reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0);\n      const avgPerDay = totalIssues / 7;\n      \n      // Check each day mentioned\n      for (let dayIdx = 0; dayIdx < 7; dayIdx++) {\n        const dayName = dayNames[dayIdx]!;\n        if (stmt.includes(dayName)) {\n          const dayCount = dayOfWeekCounts[dayIdx] || 0;\n          \n          if (stmt.includes('more') || stmt.includes('higher') || stmt.includes('spike')) {\n            // Testing if this day has MORE issues\n            if (dayCount > avgPerDay * 1.3) {\n              evidence.push({\n                type: 'supporting',\n                description: `${dayName.charAt(0).toUpperCase() + dayName.slice(1)} has ${dayCount} issues (${((dayCount/avgPerDay - 1) * 100).toFixed(0)}% above average)`,\n                weight: Math.min(0.7, 0.3 + (dayCount / avgPerDay - 1) * 0.3),\n                timestamp: new Date().toISOString(),\n              });\n            } else {\n              evidence.push({\n                type: 'contradicting',\n                description: `${dayName.charAt(0).toUpperCase() + dayName.slice(1)} has average or below average issue count`,\n                weight: 0.3,\n                timestamp: new Date().toISOString(),\n              });\n            }\n          } else if (stmt.includes('fewer') || stmt.includes('less') || stmt.includes('reduce')) {\n            // Testing if this day has FEWER issues\n            if (dayCount < avgPerDay * 0.7) {\n              evidence.push({\n                type: 'supporting',\n                description: `${dayName.charAt(0).toUpperCase() + dayName.slice(1)} has ${dayCount} issues (${((1 - dayCount/avgPerDay) * 100).toFixed(0)}% below average)`,\n                weight: Math.min(0.7, 0.3 + (1 - dayCount / avgPerDay) * 0.3),\n                timestamp: new Date().toISOString(),\n              });\n            }\n          }\n        }\n      }\n    }\n    \n    // Code review hypotheses\n    if (stmt.includes('review') || stmt.includes('pr') || stmt.includes('pull request')) {\n      // Look for patterns in reviewed vs unreviewed code (approximated by commit patterns)\n      const recentIssues = issues.slice(0, 30); // Most recent\n      const olderIssues = issues.slice(30); // Older\n      \n      if (recentIssues.length >= 10 && olderIssues.length >= 10) {\n        const recentRate = recentIssues.length;\n        const olderRate = olderIssues.length;\n        \n        if (stmt.includes('reduce') || stmt.includes('fewer') || stmt.includes('less')) {\n          if (recentRate < olderRate) {\n            evidence.push({\n              type: 'supporting',\n              description: `Recent period has ${((1 - recentRate/olderRate) * 100).toFixed(0)}% fewer issues`,\n              weight: Math.min(0.6, 0.3 + (1 - recentRate/olderRate) * 0.3),\n              timestamp: new Date().toISOString(),\n            });\n          } else {\n            evidence.push({\n              type: 'contradicting',\n              description: `Issue rate has not decreased recently`,\n              weight: 0.2,\n              timestamp: new Date().toISOString(),\n            });\n          }\n        }\n      }\n    }\n    \n    // Directory/location clustering hypotheses\n    if (stmt.includes('cluster') || stmt.includes('concentrate') || stmt.includes('auth') ||\n        stmt.includes('specific') || stmt.includes('certain files')) {\n      const dirCounts: Record<string, number> = {};\n      for (const { issue } of issues) {\n        const dir = dirname(issue.file);\n        dirCounts[dir] = (dirCounts[dir] || 0) + 1;\n      }\n      \n      const sortedDirs = Object.entries(dirCounts).sort(([, a], [, b]) => b - a);\n      const topThreeCount = sortedDirs.slice(0, 3).reduce((sum, [, count]) => sum + count, 0);\n      const totalCount = issues.length;\n      const concentration = topThreeCount / totalCount;\n      \n      if (concentration >= 0.5) {\n        evidence.push({\n          type: 'supporting',\n          description: `Top 3 directories have ${(concentration * 100).toFixed(0)}% of issues (concentrated)`,\n          weight: Math.min(0.7, 0.3 + concentration * 0.4),\n          timestamp: new Date().toISOString(),\n        });\n      } else {\n        evidence.push({\n          type: 'contradicting',\n          description: `Issues are distributed across many directories`,\n          weight: 0.3,\n          timestamp: new Date().toISOString(),\n        });\n      }\n    }\n    \n    // Severity trend hypotheses\n    if (stmt.includes('critical') || stmt.includes('security') || stmt.includes('severity')) {\n      const criticalCount = issues.filter(r => r.issue.severity === 'critical').length;\n      const seriousCount = issues.filter(r => r.issue.severity === 'serious').length;\n      const highSeverityRatio = (criticalCount + seriousCount) / issues.length;\n      \n      if (stmt.includes('increase') || stmt.includes('more') || stmt.includes('rise')) {\n        if (highSeverityRatio > 0.3) {\n          evidence.push({\n            type: 'supporting',\n            description: `${(highSeverityRatio * 100).toFixed(0)}% of issues are high severity`,\n            weight: Math.min(0.7, 0.3 + highSeverityRatio),\n            timestamp: new Date().toISOString(),\n          });\n        }\n      } else if (stmt.includes('decrease') || stmt.includes('fewer') || stmt.includes('reduce')) {\n        if (highSeverityRatio < 0.2) {\n          evidence.push({\n            type: 'supporting',\n            description: `Only ${(highSeverityRatio * 100).toFixed(0)}% of issues are high severity`,\n            weight: 0.5,\n            timestamp: new Date().toISOString(),\n          });\n        }\n      }\n    }\n    \n    // Agent/skill specific hypotheses\n    const agents = ['security', 'performance', 'accessibility', 'test', 'typecheck', 'bug-finding'];\n    for (const agent of agents) {\n      if (stmt.includes(agent) || stmt.includes(agent.replace('-', ' '))) {\n        const agentIssues = issues.filter(r => r.issue.agent === agent);\n        const agentRatio = agentIssues.length / issues.length;\n        \n        if (stmt.includes('most') || stmt.includes('majority') || stmt.includes('main')) {\n          if (agentRatio > 0.4) {\n            evidence.push({\n              type: 'supporting',\n              description: `${agent} accounts for ${(agentRatio * 100).toFixed(0)}% of issues`,\n              weight: Math.min(0.7, 0.3 + agentRatio),\n              timestamp: new Date().toISOString(),\n            });\n          } else {\n            evidence.push({\n              type: 'contradicting',\n              description: `${agent} only accounts for ${(agentRatio * 100).toFixed(0)}% of issues`,\n              weight: 0.3,\n              timestamp: new Date().toISOString(),\n            });\n          }\n        }\n      }\n    }\n    \n    return evidence;\n  }\n  \n  /**\n   * Create an insight for hypothesis status change\n   */\n  private createHypothesisInsight(analysis: HypothesisAnalysis): GuardianInsight {\n    const isValidated = analysis.statusChange === 'validated';\n    \n    return {\n      id: `insight-hyp-${analysis.hypothesis.id}`,\n      type: isValidated ? 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+{"version":3,"sources":["../src/guardian/hypothesis.ts"],"sourcesContent":["/**\n * Hypothesis System - Self-improving hypothesis generation and validation\n * \n * Phase 3 of Guardian Agency Plan: Predictive Intelligence\n * \n * Features:\n * - Generate hypotheses from patterns\n * - Track evidence for/against hypotheses\n * - Auto-validate/invalidate based on evidence\n * - Adjust confidence over time\n * - Learn from hypothesis outcomes\n */\n\nimport type { Hypothesis } from './guardian-state.js';\nimport { getGuardianState } from './guardian-state.js';\nimport { getInsightStore, type GuardianInsight } from './insight-store.js';\nimport { searchIssues } from '../memory/issue-store.js';\nimport { dirname } from 'path';\n\n// ============================================================================\n// Types\n// ============================================================================\n\n/**\n * Hypothesis template for auto-generation\n */\nexport interface HypothesisTemplate {\n  category: 'timing' | 'pattern' | 'team' | 'code' | 'general';\n  statement: string;\n  testCriteria: string;\n  minConfidence: number;\n  dataRequired: string[];\n}\n\n/**\n * Evidence for a hypothesis\n */\nexport interface HypothesisEvidence {\n  type: 'supporting' | 'contradicting';\n  description: string;\n  weight: number; // 0-1\n  timestamp: string;\n}\n\n/**\n * Hypothesis analysis result\n */\nexport interface HypothesisAnalysis {\n  hypothesis: Hypothesis;\n  recentEvidence: HypothesisEvidence[];\n  confidenceChange: number;\n  statusChange?: 'validated' | 'invalidated';\n  actionRequired: boolean;\n}\n\n// ============================================================================\n// Hypothesis Templates\n// ============================================================================\n\nconst HYPOTHESIS_TEMPLATES: HypothesisTemplate[] = [\n  {\n    category: 'timing',\n    statement: 'Issues spike after weekend deployments',\n    testCriteria: 'Compare Monday issue counts to other days',\n    minConfidence: 0.3,\n    dataRequired: ['issue_timestamps', 'deployment_data'],\n  },\n  {\n    category: 'timing',\n    statement: 'Code quality declines on Fridays',\n    testCriteria: 'Compare Friday issue introduction rate to weekly average',\n    minConfidence: 0.3,\n    dataRequired: ['issue_timestamps'],\n  },\n  {\n    category: 'pattern',\n    statement: 'Auth-related code has the highest incident rate',\n    testCriteria: 'Compare auth/ issue count to other directories',\n    minConfidence: 0.4,\n    dataRequired: ['issue_files'],\n  },\n  {\n    category: 'pattern',\n    statement: 'Security issues cluster in specific directories',\n    testCriteria: 'Check if security issues are concentrated (>50% in <3 dirs)',\n    minConfidence: 0.4,\n    dataRequired: ['issue_files', 'issue_agents'],\n  },\n  {\n    category: 'code',\n    statement: 'Files with multiple authors have more issues',\n    testCriteria: 'Correlate file author count with issue count',\n    minConfidence: 0.4,\n    dataRequired: ['issue_files', 'git_blame'],\n  },\n  {\n    category: 'code',\n    statement: 'Recently modified files are more likely to have issues',\n    testCriteria: 'Compare issue rate for recent vs old files',\n    minConfidence: 0.3,\n    dataRequired: ['issue_timestamps', 'file_modification_times'],\n  },\n  {\n    category: 'pattern',\n    statement: 'Critical issues often come in clusters',\n    testCriteria: 'Check temporal clustering of critical issues',\n    minConfidence: 0.3,\n    dataRequired: ['issue_timestamps', 'issue_severities'],\n  },\n];\n\n// ============================================================================\n// HypothesisEngine Class\n// ============================================================================\n\n/**\n * Engine for generating and validating hypotheses\n */\nexport class HypothesisEngine {\n  private projectPath: string;\n  private guardianState;\n  private insightStore;\n  \n  constructor(projectPath: string) {\n    this.projectPath = projectPath;\n    this.guardianState = getGuardianState(projectPath);\n    this.insightStore = getInsightStore(projectPath);\n  }\n  \n  /**\n   * Create a new hypothesis\n   */\n  async createHypothesis(statement: string, options?: {\n    category?: Hypothesis['category'];\n    testCriteria?: string;\n    initialConfidence?: number;\n  }): Promise<Hypothesis> {\n    const hypothesis: Hypothesis = {\n      id: `hyp-${Date.now()}-${Math.random().toString(36).slice(2, 8)}`,\n      statement,\n      confidence: options?.initialConfidence ?? 0.5,\n      status: 'proposed',\n      evidence: [],\n      createdAt: new Date().toISOString(),\n      updatedAt: new Date().toISOString(),\n      testCriteria: options?.testCriteria,\n      category: options?.category ?? 'general',\n    };\n    \n    await this.guardianState.addHypothesis(hypothesis);\n    \n    return hypothesis;\n  }\n  \n  /**\n   * Auto-generate hypotheses based on detected patterns\n   */\n  async autoGenerateHypotheses(): Promise<Hypothesis[]> {\n    const generated: Hypothesis[] = [];\n    \n    try {\n      // Get existing hypotheses to avoid duplicates\n      await this.guardianState.load();\n      const existing = this.guardianState.getAllHypotheses();\n      const existingStatements = new Set(existing.map(h => h.statement.toLowerCase()));\n      \n      // Get data for pattern detection\n      const issues = await searchIssues('', {\n        workDir: this.projectPath,\n        limit: 500,\n        includeResolved: true,\n      });\n      \n      if (issues.length < 10) {\n        return generated; // Not enough data\n      }\n      \n      // Check each template for applicability\n      for (const template of HYPOTHESIS_TEMPLATES) {\n        // Skip if already have similar hypothesis\n        if (existingStatements.has(template.statement.toLowerCase())) {\n          continue;\n        }\n        \n        // Check if we have enough evidence to propose this hypothesis\n        const evidence = await this.gatherInitialEvidence(template, issues);\n        \n        if (evidence.length > 0 && evidence[0]!.weight >= template.minConfidence) {\n          const hypothesis = await this.createHypothesis(template.statement, {\n            category: template.category,\n            testCriteria: template.testCriteria,\n            initialConfidence: evidence[0]!.weight,\n          });\n          \n          // Add initial evidence\n          for (const e of evidence) {\n            await this.guardianState.addEvidence(hypothesis.id, e);\n          }\n          \n          generated.push(hypothesis);\n          \n          // Limit to 2 new hypotheses per run\n          if (generated.length >= 2) break;\n        }\n      }\n      \n    } catch (error) {\n      console.error('Failed to auto-generate hypotheses:', error);\n    }\n    \n    return generated;\n  }\n  \n  /**\n   * Use Claude AI to generate novel hypotheses from observed patterns\n   * This enables fully agentic hypothesis creation based on actual codebase observations\n   */\n  async generateHypothesesWithAI(context: {\n    recentIssues?: any[];\n    patterns?: string[];\n    observations?: string[];\n  }): Promise<Hypothesis[]> {\n    const { isAIAvailable, runAIAnalysis } = await import('../ai/client.js');\n    \n    if (!isAIAvailable()) {\n      return []; // Fall back to template-based generation\n    }\n    \n    const generated: Hypothesis[] = [];\n    \n    try {\n      // Get existing hypotheses to avoid duplicates\n      await this.guardianState.load();\n      const existing = this.guardianState.getAllHypotheses();\n      const existingStatements = existing.map(h => h.statement);\n      \n      // Get recent issue data\n      const issues = context.recentIssues || await searchIssues('', {\n        workDir: this.projectPath,\n        limit: 100,\n        includeResolved: true,\n      });\n      \n      if (issues.length < 5) {\n        return generated; // Not enough data for AI\n      }\n      \n      // Build context for Claude\n      const issuesSummary = this.summarizeIssuesForAI(issues);\n      const patternsSummary = context.patterns?.join('\\n') || 'No explicit patterns provided';\n      const observationsSummary = context.observations?.join('\\n') || 'No explicit observations provided';\n      \n      const prompt = `You are an AI agent observing a codebase over time. Based on the patterns below, generate 1-3 testable hypotheses about this codebase's quality patterns.\n\n## Recent Issues Summary\n${issuesSummary}\n\n## Observed Patterns\n${patternsSummary}\n\n## Additional Observations\n${observationsSummary}\n\n## Existing Hypotheses (avoid duplicates)\n${existingStatements.length > 0 ? existingStatements.map(s => `- ${s}`).join('\\n') : 'None yet'}\n\nGenerate hypotheses that are:\n1. Specific and testable (can be validated with data)\n2. Actionable (if validated, can guide improvements)\n3. Novel (not duplicates of existing hypotheses)\n4. Based on real patterns in the data above\n\nReturn ONLY a JSON array of hypotheses. Each hypothesis must have:\n- \"statement\": Clear, concise hypothesis statement\n- \"category\": One of: \"timing\", \"pattern\", \"team\", \"code\", \"general\"\n- \"testCriteria\": How to test this hypothesis\n- \"confidence\": Initial confidence (0-1)\n- \"reasoning\": Why you think this hypothesis is worth testing\n\nExample format:\n[\n  {\n    \"statement\": \"Authentication code changes correlate with security issues\",\n    \"category\": \"pattern\",\n    \"testCriteria\": \"Track auth file changes and subsequent security issue rates\",\n    \"confidence\": 0.6,\n    \"reasoning\": \"65% of security issues occur in files modified in the past week\"\n  }\n]\n\nReturn empty array [] if no novel hypotheses can be generated from the data.`;\n      \n      const result = await runAIAnalysis({\n        systemPrompt: 'You are an expert code quality analyst who identifies patterns and generates testable hypotheses.',\n        userPrompt: prompt,\n        maxTokens: 1024,\n        temperature: 0.7, // Higher temperature for creative hypothesis generation\n      });\n      \n      if (!result.success || !result.content.trim()) {\n        return generated;\n      }\n      \n      // Parse AI response\n      let aiHypotheses: Array<{\n        statement: string;\n        category: Hypothesis['category'];\n        testCriteria: string;\n        confidence: number;\n        reasoning: string;\n      }> = [];\n      \n      try {\n        const cleaned = result.content.replace(/```json?\\n?|\\n?```/g, '').trim();\n        aiHypotheses = JSON.parse(cleaned);\n        if (!Array.isArray(aiHypotheses)) aiHypotheses = [];\n      } catch {\n        return generated; // AI response wasn't valid JSON\n      }\n      \n      // Create hypotheses from AI suggestions\n      for (const aiHypo of aiHypotheses.slice(0, 3)) {\n        // Check for duplicates\n        const isDuplicate = existingStatements.some(existing => \n          existing.toLowerCase().includes(aiHypo.statement.toLowerCase().slice(0, 30))\n        );\n        \n        if (isDuplicate) continue;\n        \n        const hypothesis = await this.createHypothesis(aiHypo.statement, {\n          category: aiHypo.category,\n          testCriteria: aiHypo.testCriteria,\n          initialConfidence: Math.max(0.3, Math.min(0.7, aiHypo.confidence)),\n        });\n        \n        // Add AI reasoning as initial evidence\n        await this.guardianState.addEvidence(hypothesis.id, {\n          type: 'supporting',\n          description: `AI observed: ${aiHypo.reasoning}`,\n          weight: aiHypo.confidence,\n          timestamp: new Date().toISOString(),\n        });\n        \n        generated.push(hypothesis);\n      }\n      \n    } catch (error) {\n      console.error('Failed to generate hypotheses with AI:', error);\n    }\n    \n    return generated;\n  }\n  \n  /**\n   * Summarize issues for AI context\n   */\n  private summarizeIssuesForAI(issues: Array<{ issue: any; score: number }>): string {\n    const totalIssues = issues.length;\n    \n    // Severity breakdown\n    const severityCounts: Record<string, number> = {};\n    for (const { issue } of issues) {\n      severityCounts[issue.severity] = (severityCounts[issue.severity] || 0) + 1;\n    }\n    \n    // Agent breakdown\n    const agentCounts: Record<string, number> = {};\n    for (const { issue } of issues) {\n      agentCounts[issue.agent] = (agentCounts[issue.agent] || 0) + 1;\n    }\n    \n    // File/directory patterns\n    const fileCounts: Record<string, number> = {};\n    for (const { issue } of issues) {\n      const dir = dirname(issue.file);\n      fileCounts[dir] = (fileCounts[dir] || 0) + 1;\n    }\n    \n    // Time patterns\n    const dayOfWeekCounts: Record<number, number> = {};\n    for (const { issue } of issues) {\n      const date = new Date(issue.timestamp);\n      const day = date.getDay();\n      dayOfWeekCounts[day] = (dayOfWeekCounts[day] || 0) + 1;\n    }\n    \n    const dayNames = ['Sun', 'Mon', 'Tue', 'Wed', 'Thu', 'Fri', 'Sat'];\n    const dayDistribution = Object.entries(dayOfWeekCounts)\n      .sort(([a], [b]) => Number(a) - Number(b))\n      .map(([day, count]) => `${dayNames[Number(day)]}: ${count}`)\n      .join(', ');\n    \n    const topDirs = Object.entries(fileCounts)\n      .sort(([, a], [, b]) => b - a)\n      .slice(0, 5)\n      .map(([dir, count]) => `${dir}: ${count}`)\n      .join(', ');\n    \n    const topAgents = Object.entries(agentCounts)\n      .sort(([, a], [, b]) => b - a)\n      .slice(0, 5)\n      .map(([agent, count]) => `${agent}: ${count}`)\n      .join(', ');\n    \n    return `Total Issues: ${totalIssues}\nSeverities: ${Object.entries(severityCounts).map(([s, c]) => `${s}=${c}`).join(', ')}\nTop Agents: ${topAgents}\nTop Directories: ${topDirs}\nDay Distribution: ${dayDistribution}`;\n  }\n  \n  /**\n   * Gather initial evidence for a hypothesis template\n   */\n  private async gatherInitialEvidence(\n    template: HypothesisTemplate,\n    issues: Array<{ issue: any; score: number }>\n  ): Promise<HypothesisEvidence[]> {\n    const evidence: HypothesisEvidence[] = [];\n    \n    switch (template.category) {\n      case 'timing':\n        evidence.push(...this.analyzeTimingPatterns(template, issues));\n        break;\n      case 'pattern':\n        evidence.push(...this.analyzeLocationPatterns(template, issues));\n        break;\n      case 'code':\n        evidence.push(...this.analyzeCodePatterns(template, issues));\n        break;\n    }\n    \n    return evidence;\n  }\n  \n  /**\n   * Analyze timing patterns in issues\n   */\n  private analyzeTimingPatterns(\n    template: HypothesisTemplate,\n    issues: Array<{ issue: any; score: number }>\n  ): HypothesisEvidence[] {\n    const evidence: HypothesisEvidence[] = [];\n    \n    // Analyze day-of-week patterns\n    const dayOfWeekCounts: Record<number, number> = {};\n    for (const { issue } of issues) {\n      const date = new Date(issue.timestamp);\n      const day = date.getDay();\n      dayOfWeekCounts[day] = (dayOfWeekCounts[day] || 0) + 1;\n    }\n    \n    // Check for Friday pattern\n    if (template.statement.includes('Friday')) {\n      const fridayCount = dayOfWeekCounts[5] || 0;\n      const avgOtherDays = (Object.values(dayOfWeekCounts).reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0) - fridayCount) / 4;\n      \n      if (fridayCount > avgOtherDays * 1.5) {\n        evidence.push({\n          type: 'supporting',\n          description: `Friday has ${((fridayCount / avgOtherDays - 1) * 100).toFixed(0)}% more issues than average`,\n          weight: Math.min(0.8, 0.3 + (fridayCount / avgOtherDays - 1) * 0.2),\n          timestamp: new Date().toISOString(),\n        });\n      } else {\n        evidence.push({\n          type: 'contradicting',\n          description: 'Friday issue count is not significantly higher',\n          weight: 0.3,\n          timestamp: new Date().toISOString(),\n        });\n      }\n    }\n    \n    // Check for Monday/weekend pattern\n    if (template.statement.includes('weekend') || template.statement.includes('Monday')) {\n      const mondayCount = dayOfWeekCounts[1] || 0;\n      const avgOtherDays = (Object.values(dayOfWeekCounts).reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0) - mondayCount) / 4;\n      \n      if (mondayCount > avgOtherDays * 1.5) {\n        evidence.push({\n          type: 'supporting',\n          description: `Monday has ${((mondayCount / avgOtherDays - 1) * 100).toFixed(0)}% more issues than average`,\n          weight: Math.min(0.8, 0.3 + (mondayCount / avgOtherDays - 1) * 0.2),\n          timestamp: new Date().toISOString(),\n        });\n      }\n    }\n    \n    return evidence;\n  }\n  \n  /**\n   * Analyze location patterns in issues\n   */\n  private analyzeLocationPatterns(\n    template: HypothesisTemplate,\n    issues: Array<{ issue: any; score: number }>\n  ): HypothesisEvidence[] {\n    const evidence: HypothesisEvidence[] = [];\n    \n    // Analyze directory distribution\n    const dirCounts: Record<string, number> = {};\n    for (const { issue } of issues) {\n      const dir = dirname(issue.file);\n      dirCounts[dir] = (dirCounts[dir] || 0) + 1;\n    }\n    \n    const sortedDirs = Object.entries(dirCounts)\n      .sort(([, a], [, b]) => b - a);\n    \n    // Check for auth pattern\n    if (template.statement.includes('Auth')) {\n      const authDirs = sortedDirs.filter(([dir]) => \n        dir.toLowerCase().includes('auth') || \n        dir.toLowerCase().includes('login') ||\n        dir.toLowerCase().includes('session')\n      );\n      \n      const authCount = authDirs.reduce((sum, [, count]) => sum + count, 0);\n      const percentage = (authCount / issues.length) * 100;\n      \n      if (percentage >= 20) {\n        evidence.push({\n          type: 'supporting',\n          description: `Auth-related code has ${percentage.toFixed(0)}% of issues`,\n          weight: Math.min(0.85, 0.4 + percentage / 100),\n          timestamp: new Date().toISOString(),\n        });\n      }\n    }\n    \n    // Check for clustering pattern\n    if (template.statement.includes('cluster')) {\n      const topThreeDirs = sortedDirs.slice(0, 3);\n      const topThreeCount = topThreeDirs.reduce((sum, [, count]) => sum + count, 0);\n      const percentage = (topThreeCount / issues.length) * 100;\n      \n      if (percentage >= 50) {\n        evidence.push({\n          type: 'supporting',\n          description: `Top 3 directories have ${percentage.toFixed(0)}% of issues`,\n          weight: Math.min(0.8, 0.3 + percentage / 100),\n          timestamp: new Date().toISOString(),\n        });\n      }\n    }\n    \n    return evidence;\n  }\n  \n  /**\n   * Analyze code patterns\n   */\n  private analyzeCodePatterns(\n    template: HypothesisTemplate,\n    issues: Array<{ issue: any; score: number }>\n  ): HypothesisEvidence[] {\n    const evidence: HypothesisEvidence[] = [];\n    \n    // Analyze temporal clustering (critical issues in bursts)\n    if (template.statement.includes('cluster')) {\n      const criticalIssues = issues.filter(r => r.issue.severity === 'critical');\n      \n      if (criticalIssues.length >= 3) {\n        // Check if critical issues are clustered in time\n        const timestamps = criticalIssues\n          .map(r => new Date(r.issue.timestamp).getTime())\n          .sort((a, b) => a - b);\n        \n        let clusteredCount = 0;\n        for (let i = 1; i < timestamps.length; i++) {\n          // If within 24 hours of previous\n          if (timestamps[i]! - timestamps[i - 1]! < 24 * 60 * 60 * 1000) {\n            clusteredCount++;\n          }\n        }\n        \n        const clusterRatio = clusteredCount / (timestamps.length - 1);\n        \n        if (clusterRatio >= 0.5) {\n          evidence.push({\n            type: 'supporting',\n            description: `${(clusterRatio * 100).toFixed(0)}% of critical issues occur within 24h of another`,\n            weight: Math.min(0.75, 0.3 + clusterRatio * 0.4),\n            timestamp: new Date().toISOString(),\n          });\n        }\n      }\n    }\n    \n    return evidence;\n  }\n  \n  /**\n   * Update confidence scores based on new data\n   */\n  async updateConfidenceFromOutcomes(): Promise<HypothesisAnalysis[]> {\n    const analyses: HypothesisAnalysis[] = [];\n    \n    try {\n      await this.guardianState.load();\n      const activeHypotheses = this.guardianState.getActiveHypotheses();\n      \n      for (const hypothesis of activeHypotheses) {\n        const analysis = await this.analyzeHypothesis(hypothesis);\n        analyses.push(analysis);\n        \n        // Create insight if hypothesis was validated or invalidated\n        if (analysis.statusChange && this.insightStore.canCreateInsight('hypothesis-update')) {\n          const insight = this.createHypothesisInsight(analysis);\n          await this.insightStore.addInsight(insight);\n          await this.insightStore.markInsightCreated('hypothesis-update');\n        }\n      }\n      \n      // Update hypothesis accuracy metric\n      await this.guardianState.updateHypothesisAccuracy();\n      \n    } catch (error) {\n      console.error('Failed to update hypothesis confidence:', error);\n    }\n    \n    return analyses;\n  }\n  \n  /**\n   * Analyze a single hypothesis\n   */\n  private async analyzeHypothesis(hypothesis: Hypothesis): Promise<HypothesisAnalysis> {\n    // Get recent issues for new evidence\n    const issues = await searchIssues('', {\n      workDir: this.projectPath,\n      limit: 100,\n      includeResolved: false,\n    });\n    \n    // Find the matching template\n    const template = HYPOTHESIS_TEMPLATES.find(t => \n      t.statement.toLowerCase() === hypothesis.statement.toLowerCase()\n    );\n    \n    const recentEvidence: HypothesisEvidence[] = [];\n    \n    if (template) {\n      recentEvidence.push(...await this.gatherInitialEvidence(template, issues));\n    } else {\n      // For user-created hypotheses, use semantic evidence gathering\n      recentEvidence.push(...this.gatherSemanticEvidence(hypothesis, issues));\n    }\n    \n    // Calculate confidence change\n    const oldConfidence = hypothesis.confidence;\n    let newConfidence = oldConfidence;\n    \n    for (const evidence of recentEvidence) {\n      if (evidence.type === 'supporting') {\n        newConfidence = Math.min(1, newConfidence + evidence.weight * 0.1);\n      } else {\n        newConfidence = Math.max(0, newConfidence - evidence.weight * 0.1);\n      }\n    }\n    \n    // Determine status change\n    let statusChange: 'validated' | 'invalidated' | undefined;\n    \n    if (newConfidence >= 0.8 && hypothesis.evidence.length >= 3) {\n      statusChange = 'validated';\n      await this.guardianState.updateHypothesis(hypothesis.id, {\n        status: 'validated',\n        confidence: newConfidence,\n        validatedAt: new Date().toISOString(),\n      });\n    } else if (newConfidence <= 0.2 && hypothesis.evidence.length >= 3) {\n      statusChange = 'invalidated';\n      await this.guardianState.updateHypothesis(hypothesis.id, {\n        status: 'invalidated',\n        confidence: newConfidence,\n      });\n    } else {\n      // Just update confidence\n      await this.guardianState.updateHypothesis(hypothesis.id, {\n        confidence: newConfidence,\n      });\n    }\n    \n    // Add new evidence\n    for (const evidence of recentEvidence) {\n      await this.guardianState.addEvidence(hypothesis.id, evidence);\n    }\n    \n    const analysis: HypothesisAnalysis = {\n      hypothesis: { ...hypothesis, confidence: newConfidence },\n      recentEvidence,\n      confidenceChange: newConfidence - oldConfidence,\n      actionRequired: statusChange !== undefined,\n    };\n    \n    if (statusChange) {\n      analysis.statusChange = statusChange;\n    }\n    \n    return analysis;\n  }\n  \n  /**\n   * Gather evidence for user-created hypotheses using semantic matching\n   * \n   * This enables agentic tracking for natural language hypotheses like:\n   * - \"Mondays have more bugs than Fridays\"\n   * - \"Code reviews reduce bug rate\"\n   * - \"Security issues cluster in auth code\"\n   */\n  private gatherSemanticEvidence(\n    hypothesis: Hypothesis,\n    issues: Array<{ issue: any; score: number }>\n  ): HypothesisEvidence[] {\n    const evidence: HypothesisEvidence[] = [];\n    const stmt = hypothesis.statement.toLowerCase();\n    \n    // Time-based hypotheses (days of week patterns)\n    if (stmt.includes('monday') || stmt.includes('friday') || stmt.includes('weekend') ||\n        stmt.includes('morning') || stmt.includes('afternoon')) {\n      const dayNames = ['sunday', 'monday', 'tuesday', 'wednesday', 'thursday', 'friday', 'saturday'];\n      const dayOfWeekCounts: Record<number, number> = { 0: 0, 1: 0, 2: 0, 3: 0, 4: 0, 5: 0, 6: 0 };\n      \n      for (const { issue } of issues) {\n        const date = new Date(issue.timestamp);\n        const day = date.getDay();\n        dayOfWeekCounts[day] = (dayOfWeekCounts[day] || 0) + 1;\n      }\n      \n      const totalIssues = Object.values(dayOfWeekCounts).reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0);\n      const avgPerDay = totalIssues / 7;\n      \n      // Check each day mentioned\n      for (let dayIdx = 0; dayIdx < 7; dayIdx++) {\n        const dayName = dayNames[dayIdx]!;\n        if (stmt.includes(dayName)) {\n          const dayCount = dayOfWeekCounts[dayIdx] || 0;\n          \n          if (stmt.includes('more') || stmt.includes('higher') || stmt.includes('spike')) {\n            // Testing if this day has MORE issues\n            if (dayCount > avgPerDay * 1.3) {\n              evidence.push({\n                type: 'supporting',\n                description: `${dayName.charAt(0).toUpperCase() + dayName.slice(1)} has ${dayCount} issues (${((dayCount/avgPerDay - 1) * 100).toFixed(0)}% above average)`,\n                weight: Math.min(0.7, 0.3 + (dayCount / avgPerDay - 1) * 0.3),\n                timestamp: new Date().toISOString(),\n              });\n            } else {\n              evidence.push({\n                type: 'contradicting',\n                description: `${dayName.charAt(0).toUpperCase() + dayName.slice(1)} has average or below average issue count`,\n                weight: 0.3,\n                timestamp: new Date().toISOString(),\n              });\n            }\n          } else if (stmt.includes('fewer') || stmt.includes('less') || stmt.includes('reduce')) {\n            // Testing if this day has FEWER issues\n            if (dayCount < avgPerDay * 0.7) {\n              evidence.push({\n                type: 'supporting',\n                description: `${dayName.charAt(0).toUpperCase() + dayName.slice(1)} has ${dayCount} issues (${((1 - dayCount/avgPerDay) * 100).toFixed(0)}% below average)`,\n                weight: Math.min(0.7, 0.3 + (1 - dayCount / avgPerDay) * 0.3),\n                timestamp: new Date().toISOString(),\n              });\n            }\n          }\n        }\n      }\n    }\n    \n    // Code review hypotheses\n    if (stmt.includes('review') || stmt.includes('pr') || stmt.includes('pull request')) {\n      // Look for patterns in reviewed vs unreviewed code (approximated by commit patterns)\n      const recentIssues = issues.slice(0, 30); // Most recent\n      const olderIssues = issues.slice(30); // Older\n      \n      if (recentIssues.length >= 10 && olderIssues.length >= 10) {\n        const recentRate = recentIssues.length;\n        const olderRate = olderIssues.length;\n        \n        if (stmt.includes('reduce') || stmt.includes('fewer') || stmt.includes('less')) {\n          if (recentRate < olderRate) {\n            evidence.push({\n              type: 'supporting',\n              description: `Recent period has ${((1 - recentRate/olderRate) * 100).toFixed(0)}% fewer issues`,\n              weight: Math.min(0.6, 0.3 + (1 - recentRate/olderRate) * 0.3),\n              timestamp: new Date().toISOString(),\n            });\n          } else {\n            evidence.push({\n              type: 'contradicting',\n              description: `Issue rate has not decreased recently`,\n              weight: 0.2,\n              timestamp: new Date().toISOString(),\n            });\n          }\n        }\n      }\n    }\n    \n    // Directory/location clustering hypotheses\n    if (stmt.includes('cluster') || stmt.includes('concentrate') || stmt.includes('auth') ||\n        stmt.includes('specific') || stmt.includes('certain files')) {\n      const dirCounts: Record<string, number> = {};\n      for (const { issue } of issues) {\n        const dir = dirname(issue.file);\n        dirCounts[dir] = (dirCounts[dir] || 0) + 1;\n      }\n      \n      const sortedDirs = Object.entries(dirCounts).sort(([, a], [, b]) => b - a);\n      const topThreeCount = sortedDirs.slice(0, 3).reduce((sum, [, count]) => sum + count, 0);\n      const totalCount = issues.length;\n      const concentration = topThreeCount / totalCount;\n      \n      if (concentration >= 0.5) {\n        evidence.push({\n          type: 'supporting',\n          description: `Top 3 directories have ${(concentration * 100).toFixed(0)}% of issues (concentrated)`,\n          weight: Math.min(0.7, 0.3 + concentration * 0.4),\n          timestamp: new Date().toISOString(),\n        });\n      } else {\n        evidence.push({\n          type: 'contradicting',\n          description: `Issues are distributed across many directories`,\n          weight: 0.3,\n          timestamp: new Date().toISOString(),\n        });\n      }\n    }\n    \n    // Severity trend hypotheses\n    if (stmt.includes('critical') || stmt.includes('security') || stmt.includes('severity')) {\n      const criticalCount = issues.filter(r => r.issue.severity === 'critical').length;\n      const seriousCount = issues.filter(r => r.issue.severity === 'serious').length;\n      const highSeverityRatio = (criticalCount + seriousCount) / issues.length;\n      \n      if (stmt.includes('increase') || stmt.includes('more') || stmt.includes('rise')) {\n        if (highSeverityRatio > 0.3) {\n          evidence.push({\n            type: 'supporting',\n            description: `${(highSeverityRatio * 100).toFixed(0)}% of issues are high severity`,\n            weight: Math.min(0.7, 0.3 + highSeverityRatio),\n            timestamp: new Date().toISOString(),\n          });\n        }\n      } else if (stmt.includes('decrease') || stmt.includes('fewer') || stmt.includes('reduce')) {\n        if (highSeverityRatio < 0.2) {\n          evidence.push({\n            type: 'supporting',\n            description: `Only ${(highSeverityRatio * 100).toFixed(0)}% of issues are high severity`,\n            weight: 0.5,\n            timestamp: new Date().toISOString(),\n          });\n        }\n      }\n    }\n    \n    // Agent/skill specific hypotheses\n    const agents = ['security', 'performance', 'accessibility', 'test', 'typecheck', 'bug-finding'];\n    for (const agent of agents) {\n      if (stmt.includes(agent) || stmt.includes(agent.replace('-', ' '))) {\n        const agentIssues = issues.filter(r => r.issue.agent === agent);\n        const agentRatio = agentIssues.length / issues.length;\n        \n        if (stmt.includes('most') || stmt.includes('majority') || stmt.includes('main')) {\n          if (agentRatio > 0.4) {\n            evidence.push({\n              type: 'supporting',\n              description: `${agent} accounts for ${(agentRatio * 100).toFixed(0)}% of issues`,\n              weight: Math.min(0.7, 0.3 + agentRatio),\n              timestamp: new Date().toISOString(),\n            });\n          } else {\n            evidence.push({\n              type: 'contradicting',\n              description: `${agent} only accounts for ${(agentRatio * 100).toFixed(0)}% of issues`,\n              weight: 0.3,\n              timestamp: new Date().toISOString(),\n            });\n          }\n        }\n      }\n    }\n    \n    return evidence;\n  }\n  \n  /**\n   * Create an insight for hypothesis status change\n   */\n  private createHypothesisInsight(analysis: HypothesisAnalysis): GuardianInsight {\n    const isValidated = analysis.statusChange === 'validated';\n    \n    return {\n      id: `insight-hyp-${analysis.hypothesis.id}`,\n      type: isValidated ? 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