@trazum/core 1.50.7 → 1.50.8

package/dist/index.d.ts

@@ -20,6 +20,8 @@ export { verifyPlan } from './verify.js';
 export { buildHistory, storedReportFrom, MIN_RUN } from './history.js';
 export { outcomeReport, judgeOutcome, OUTCOME_UNLOCKS } from './outcome.js';
 export { runExperiment } from './experiment.js';
+export { qualityGate, MIN_OUTCOMES_EACH_SIDE, MAX_MODEL_MIX_DRIFT, MAX_VOLUME_RATIO, MAX_COVERAGE_DRIFT, } from './quality-gate.js';
+export type { Confounder, GateSide, GateUnknown, GateVerdict, QualityGate } from './quality-gate.js';
 export type { ArmResult, ExperimentArm, ExperimentDeclaration, ExperimentResult, Marginal, NotSeparableReason, Separation, } from './experiment.js';
 export { ladderArithmetic, ladderPosition, validateLadder, MIN_CALLS_FOR_LADDER, BREAK_EVEN_BAND, } from './ladder.js';
 export type { LadderArithmetic, LadderPolicy, LadderPosition, LadderProblem, LadderUnknown, LadderVerdict, } from './ladder.js';

package/dist/index.d.ts.map

@@ -1 +1 @@
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package/dist/index.js

@@ -23,6 +23,7 @@ export { verifyPlan } from './verify.js';
 export { buildHistory, storedReportFrom, MIN_RUN } from './history.js';
 export { outcomeReport, judgeOutcome, OUTCOME_UNLOCKS } from './outcome.js';
 export { runExperiment } from './experiment.js';
+export { qualityGate, MIN_OUTCOMES_EACH_SIDE, MAX_MODEL_MIX_DRIFT, MAX_VOLUME_RATIO, MAX_COVERAGE_DRIFT, } from './quality-gate.js';
 export { ladderArithmetic, ladderPosition, validateLadder, MIN_CALLS_FOR_LADDER, BREAK_EVEN_BAND, } from './ladder.js';
 export { perOutcome, rankPerOutcome, MIN_OUTCOMES_FOR_RATE, MIN_COVERAGE_FOR_RATE, } from './per-outcome.js';
 export { gatewayDecision, usageFromResponse, FAILURE_POLICIES } from './gateway.js';

package/dist/index.js.map

@@ -1 +1 @@
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package/dist/quality-gate.d.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,134 @@
+/**
+ * The failure that actually matters, and the four ways of getting it wrong.
+ *
+ * CI has been able to fail a build for tokens since 1.4 and for dollars since
+ * 1.21. A prompt edit that quietly made the product worse has never been
+ * gateable — which means every cost saving this tool has ever recommended went
+ * into a repository with its most important consequence unmeasured.
+ *
+ * ## This is a before-and-after, not an experiment
+ *
+ * Worth saying in the first paragraph, because the arithmetic is the same as
+ * `experiment`'s and the epistemics are not. An experiment splits traffic
+ * randomly, so the two arms differ only in the thing under test. A
+ * before-and-after splits it by **time**, and everything else that changed at
+ * the same time is in the difference too.
+ *
+ * So this module spends most of its code looking for reasons *not* to blame the
+ * prompt, and it reports `cannot-tell` far more readily than a randomised
+ * comparison would. That is not timidity. A gate that blames the prompt because
+ * the prompt is the thing it can see will be switched off within a month, and a
+ * switched-off gate catches nothing at all.
+ *
+ * ## The three confounders it can actually see
+ *
+ * **The model moved.** If the mix of models shifted across the boundary, the
+ * prompt is not the only variable, and the drop may be entirely somebody else's
+ * migration.
+ *
+ * **The volume moved.** A workload whose traffic tripled is usually a workload
+ * whose *population* changed — a new surface, a new customer, a marketing
+ * campaign — and the questions being asked are not the questions from before.
+ *
+ * **The coverage moved.** The subtle one, and the one nobody thinks of: if the
+ * share of calls recording an outcome changed, the two rates describe different
+ * populations. A team that started instrumenting its hard cases will see its
+ * measured rate fall without anything getting worse.
+ *
+ * Any of them present, and the verdict is `cannot-tell` with the confounder
+ * **named**. Not a hedge attached to a blame — a refusal to blame.
+ *
+ * ## What it cannot see, and says so
+ *
+ * Everything else deployed that day. This module has one label's numbers and no
+ * knowledge of the world, and it never pretends otherwise: a `dropped` verdict
+ * is a statement that the rate fell and the three things it can check did not
+ * move, which is a smaller claim than "the prompt did it" and is the largest
+ * claim the evidence supports.
+ */
+import type { ArmResult, ExperimentArm } from './experiment.js';
+import type { OutcomeVocabulary } from './outcome.js';
+/**
+ * Outcomes each side of the change needs before a verdict is offered.
+ *
+ * A hundred rather than the ten used for a rate elsewhere, because this one
+ * fails builds. The cost of a wrong `dropped` is somebody reverting a good
+ * change and losing the saving; the cost of a wrong `cannot-tell` is waiting a
+ * day. Those are not symmetric and the threshold is not either.
+ */
+export declare const MIN_OUTCOMES_EACH_SIDE = 100;
+/** How far the model mix may move before the comparison stops being about the prompt. */
+export declare const MAX_MODEL_MIX_DRIFT = 0.1;
+/**
+ * How far the call volume may move, as a ratio.
+ *
+ * Half again, either way. Ordinary week-to-week traffic moves less than that;
+ * a workload that doubled is usually a workload whose population changed.
+ */
+export declare const MAX_VOLUME_RATIO = 1.5;
+/** How far outcome coverage may move before the two rates describe different populations. */
+export declare const MAX_COVERAGE_DRIFT = 0.1;
+export type Confounder = {
+    kind: 'model-mix-moved';
+    drift: number;
+    model: string;
+} | {
+    kind: 'volume-moved';
+    beforeCalls: number;
+    afterCalls: number;
+    ratio: number;
+} | {
+    kind: 'coverage-moved';
+    before: number;
+    after: number;
+};
+export type GateVerdict = 'held' | 'dropped' | 'cannot-tell';
+export type GateUnknown = 'too-few-before' | 'too-few-after' | 'confounded' | 'no-vocabulary' | 'not-separable';
+/** One side of the boundary, as the caller measured it. */
+export interface GateSide {
+    arm: ExperimentArm;
+    /** Every call in the window, outcome or not — the coverage denominator. */
+    calls: number;
+    /** Spend per model, for the mix comparison. */
+    usdByModel: Array<{
+        model: string;
+        usd: number;
+    }>;
+}
+export interface QualityGate {
+    verdict: GateVerdict;
+    /** Why, when the verdict is `cannot-tell`. A refusal never arrives bare. */
+    unknown: GateUnknown | null;
+    before: ArmResult;
+    after: ArmResult;
+    /** The 95% interval on (after − before), or null. */
+    difference: {
+        point: number;
+        low: number;
+        high: number;
+    } | null;
+    /**
+     * Everything found that means the prompt is not the only variable.
+     *
+     * Non-empty forces `cannot-tell`. Reported even on a `held` verdict, because
+     * a rate that held while the model changed underneath is not evidence that
+     * the prompt is fine either.
+     */
+    confounders: Confounder[];
+    /**
+     * The cost half — measured, and kept beside the quality half rather than
+     * merged with it. The sentence teams argue about needs both.
+     */
+    cost: {
+        beforeUsdPerCall: number;
+        afterUsdPerCall: number;
+        deltaUsdPerCall: number;
+    } | null;
+    /** Outcomes behind the comparison, so the claim carries its own sample size. */
+    outcomes: {
+        before: number;
+        after: number;
+    };
+}
+export declare function qualityGate(before: GateSide, after: GateSide, vocabulary: OutcomeVocabulary | null): QualityGate;
+//# sourceMappingURL=quality-gate.d.ts.map

package/dist/quality-gate.d.ts.map

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package/dist/quality-gate.js

@@ -0,0 +1,185 @@
+/**
+ * The failure that actually matters, and the four ways of getting it wrong.
+ *
+ * CI has been able to fail a build for tokens since 1.4 and for dollars since
+ * 1.21. A prompt edit that quietly made the product worse has never been
+ * gateable — which means every cost saving this tool has ever recommended went
+ * into a repository with its most important consequence unmeasured.
+ *
+ * ## This is a before-and-after, not an experiment
+ *
+ * Worth saying in the first paragraph, because the arithmetic is the same as
+ * `experiment`'s and the epistemics are not. An experiment splits traffic
+ * randomly, so the two arms differ only in the thing under test. A
+ * before-and-after splits it by **time**, and everything else that changed at
+ * the same time is in the difference too.
+ *
+ * So this module spends most of its code looking for reasons *not* to blame the
+ * prompt, and it reports `cannot-tell` far more readily than a randomised
+ * comparison would. That is not timidity. A gate that blames the prompt because
+ * the prompt is the thing it can see will be switched off within a month, and a
+ * switched-off gate catches nothing at all.
+ *
+ * ## The three confounders it can actually see
+ *
+ * **The model moved.** If the mix of models shifted across the boundary, the
+ * prompt is not the only variable, and the drop may be entirely somebody else's
+ * migration.
+ *
+ * **The volume moved.** A workload whose traffic tripled is usually a workload
+ * whose *population* changed — a new surface, a new customer, a marketing
+ * campaign — and the questions being asked are not the questions from before.
+ *
+ * **The coverage moved.** The subtle one, and the one nobody thinks of: if the
+ * share of calls recording an outcome changed, the two rates describe different
+ * populations. A team that started instrumenting its hard cases will see its
+ * measured rate fall without anything getting worse.
+ *
+ * Any of them present, and the verdict is `cannot-tell` with the confounder
+ * **named**. Not a hedge attached to a blame — a refusal to blame.
+ *
+ * ## What it cannot see, and says so
+ *
+ * Everything else deployed that day. This module has one label's numbers and no
+ * knowledge of the world, and it never pretends otherwise: a `dropped` verdict
+ * is a statement that the rate fell and the three things it can check did not
+ * move, which is a smaller claim than "the prompt did it" and is the largest
+ * claim the evidence supports.
+ */
+import { runExperiment } from './experiment.js';
+/**
+ * Outcomes each side of the change needs before a verdict is offered.
+ *
+ * A hundred rather than the ten used for a rate elsewhere, because this one
+ * fails builds. The cost of a wrong `dropped` is somebody reverting a good
+ * change and losing the saving; the cost of a wrong `cannot-tell` is waiting a
+ * day. Those are not symmetric and the threshold is not either.
+ */
+export const MIN_OUTCOMES_EACH_SIDE = 100;
+/** How far the model mix may move before the comparison stops being about the prompt. */
+export const MAX_MODEL_MIX_DRIFT = 0.1;
+/**
+ * How far the call volume may move, as a ratio.
+ *
+ * Half again, either way. Ordinary week-to-week traffic moves less than that;
+ * a workload that doubled is usually a workload whose population changed.
+ */
+export const MAX_VOLUME_RATIO = 1.5;
+/** How far outcome coverage may move before the two rates describe different populations. */
+export const MAX_COVERAGE_DRIFT = 0.1;
+function mixDrift(before, after) {
+    const share = (rows) => {
+        const total = rows.reduce((sum, row) => sum + row.usd, 0);
+        const out = new Map();
+        if (total <= 0)
+            return out;
+        for (const row of rows)
+            out.set(row.model, (out.get(row.model) ?? 0) + row.usd / total);
+        return out;
+    };
+    const a = share(before);
+    const b = share(after);
+    let worst = null;
+    for (const model of new Set([...a.keys(), ...b.keys()])) {
+        const drift = Math.abs((b.get(model) ?? 0) - (a.get(model) ?? 0));
+        if (worst === null || drift > worst.drift)
+            worst = { model, drift };
+    }
+    if (worst === null || worst.drift <= MAX_MODEL_MIX_DRIFT)
+        return null;
+    return { kind: 'model-mix-moved', drift: worst.drift, model: worst.model };
+}
+export function qualityGate(before, after, vocabulary) {
+    /**
+     * The statistics are `experiment`'s, deliberately.
+     *
+     * One implementation of a two-proportion comparison, so a gate and a
+     * deliberate experiment can never disagree about the same two numbers — the
+     * failure mode where a team runs both and gets two answers, then trusts
+     * whichever one they liked.
+     */
+    const stats = runExperiment({ arms: ['before', 'after'], minOutcomesPerArm: MIN_OUTCOMES_EACH_SIDE }, { a: { ...after.arm, name: 'after' }, b: { ...before.arm, name: 'before' } }, vocabulary);
+    const outcomes = { before: stats.b.recorded, after: stats.a.recorded };
+    const cost = before.calls > 0 && after.calls > 0
+        ? {
+            beforeUsdPerCall: before.arm.totalUsd / before.calls,
+            afterUsdPerCall: after.arm.totalUsd / after.calls,
+            deltaUsdPerCall: after.arm.totalUsd / after.calls - before.arm.totalUsd / before.calls,
+        }
+        : null;
+    const confounders = [];
+    const mix = mixDrift(before.usdByModel, after.usdByModel);
+    if (mix !== null)
+        confounders.push(mix);
+    if (before.calls > 0 && after.calls > 0) {
+        const ratio = after.calls / before.calls;
+        if (ratio > MAX_VOLUME_RATIO || ratio < 1 / MAX_VOLUME_RATIO) {
+            confounders.push({
+                kind: 'volume-moved',
+                beforeCalls: before.calls,
+                afterCalls: after.calls,
+                ratio,
+            });
+        }
+        /**
+         * Coverage, the one nobody thinks of.
+         *
+         * A team that starts instrumenting its hard cases sees its measured rate
+         * fall without anything having got worse. Comparing two rates over
+         * differently-selected populations is the most convincing wrong answer
+         * this module could produce.
+         */
+        const coverageBefore = outcomes.before / before.calls;
+        const coverageAfter = outcomes.after / after.calls;
+        if (Math.abs(coverageAfter - coverageBefore) > MAX_COVERAGE_DRIFT) {
+            confounders.push({ kind: 'coverage-moved', before: coverageBefore, after: coverageAfter });
+        }
+    }
+    const shell = {
+        before: stats.b,
+        after: stats.a,
+        difference: stats.difference,
+        confounders,
+        cost,
+        outcomes,
+    };
+    if (vocabulary === null || vocabulary.success.length === 0) {
+        return { ...shell, verdict: 'cannot-tell', unknown: 'no-vocabulary' };
+    }
+    if (outcomes.before < MIN_OUTCOMES_EACH_SIDE) {
+        return { ...shell, verdict: 'cannot-tell', unknown: 'too-few-before' };
+    }
+    if (outcomes.after < MIN_OUTCOMES_EACH_SIDE) {
+        return { ...shell, verdict: 'cannot-tell', unknown: 'too-few-after' };
+    }
+    /**
+     * A confounder outranks the statistics.
+     *
+     * Checked after the sample sizes and before the verdict, so a build is never
+     * failed on a difference that something else could equally explain. A gate
+     * that blames the prompt because the prompt is the thing it can see gets
+     * switched off within a month, and a switched-off gate catches nothing.
+     */
+    if (confounders.length > 0) {
+        return { ...shell, verdict: 'cannot-tell', unknown: 'confounded' };
+    }
+    if (stats.separation === 'not-separable') {
+        /**
+         * Not separable is `cannot-tell`, never `held`.
+         *
+         * "The rate did not measurably fall" and "the rate held" are different
+         * claims, and a gate that spells them the same way passes a real
+         * regression it merely lacked the power to see. `verify` has held this
+         * line since 1.39 and it matters more here, because this one is wired to
+         * an exit code.
+         */
+        return { ...shell, verdict: 'cannot-tell', unknown: 'not-separable' };
+    }
+    // `a` is the *after* arm, so `a-wins` means the rate went up.
+    return {
+        ...shell,
+        verdict: stats.separation === 'a-wins' ? 'held' : 'dropped',
+        unknown: null,
+    };
+}
+//# sourceMappingURL=quality-gate.js.map

package/dist/quality-gate.js.map

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package/package.json

@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
 {
   "name": "@trazum/core",
-  "version": "1.50.7",
+  "version": "1.50.8",
   "description": "Trazum core: priced advisories for LLM prompts (caching, model tier, batching, schemas), plus deterministic trimming, token counting and pricing.",
   "license": "MIT",
   "author": "David Mu\u00f1oz Rey",

package/src/index.ts

@@ -51,6 +51,14 @@ export { verifyPlan } from './verify.js';
 export { buildHistory, storedReportFrom, MIN_RUN } from './history.js';
 export { outcomeReport, judgeOutcome, OUTCOME_UNLOCKS } from './outcome.js';
 export { runExperiment } from './experiment.js';
+export {
+  qualityGate,
+  MIN_OUTCOMES_EACH_SIDE,
+  MAX_MODEL_MIX_DRIFT,
+  MAX_VOLUME_RATIO,
+  MAX_COVERAGE_DRIFT,
+} from './quality-gate.js';
+export type { Confounder, GateSide, GateUnknown, GateVerdict, QualityGate } from './quality-gate.js';
 export type {
   ArmResult,
   ExperimentArm,

package/src/quality-gate.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,253 @@
+/**
+ * The failure that actually matters, and the four ways of getting it wrong.
+ *
+ * CI has been able to fail a build for tokens since 1.4 and for dollars since
+ * 1.21. A prompt edit that quietly made the product worse has never been
+ * gateable — which means every cost saving this tool has ever recommended went
+ * into a repository with its most important consequence unmeasured.
+ *
+ * ## This is a before-and-after, not an experiment
+ *
+ * Worth saying in the first paragraph, because the arithmetic is the same as
+ * `experiment`'s and the epistemics are not. An experiment splits traffic
+ * randomly, so the two arms differ only in the thing under test. A
+ * before-and-after splits it by **time**, and everything else that changed at
+ * the same time is in the difference too.
+ *
+ * So this module spends most of its code looking for reasons *not* to blame the
+ * prompt, and it reports `cannot-tell` far more readily than a randomised
+ * comparison would. That is not timidity. A gate that blames the prompt because
+ * the prompt is the thing it can see will be switched off within a month, and a
+ * switched-off gate catches nothing at all.
+ *
+ * ## The three confounders it can actually see
+ *
+ * **The model moved.** If the mix of models shifted across the boundary, the
+ * prompt is not the only variable, and the drop may be entirely somebody else's
+ * migration.
+ *
+ * **The volume moved.** A workload whose traffic tripled is usually a workload
+ * whose *population* changed — a new surface, a new customer, a marketing
+ * campaign — and the questions being asked are not the questions from before.
+ *
+ * **The coverage moved.** The subtle one, and the one nobody thinks of: if the
+ * share of calls recording an outcome changed, the two rates describe different
+ * populations. A team that started instrumenting its hard cases will see its
+ * measured rate fall without anything getting worse.
+ *
+ * Any of them present, and the verdict is `cannot-tell` with the confounder
+ * **named**. Not a hedge attached to a blame — a refusal to blame.
+ *
+ * ## What it cannot see, and says so
+ *
+ * Everything else deployed that day. This module has one label's numbers and no
+ * knowledge of the world, and it never pretends otherwise: a `dropped` verdict
+ * is a statement that the rate fell and the three things it can check did not
+ * move, which is a smaller claim than "the prompt did it" and is the largest
+ * claim the evidence supports.
+ */
+
+import { runExperiment } from './experiment.js';
+import type { ArmResult, ExperimentArm } from './experiment.js';
+import type { OutcomeVocabulary } from './outcome.js';
+
+/**
+ * Outcomes each side of the change needs before a verdict is offered.
+ *
+ * A hundred rather than the ten used for a rate elsewhere, because this one
+ * fails builds. The cost of a wrong `dropped` is somebody reverting a good
+ * change and losing the saving; the cost of a wrong `cannot-tell` is waiting a
+ * day. Those are not symmetric and the threshold is not either.
+ */
+export const MIN_OUTCOMES_EACH_SIDE = 100;
+
+/** How far the model mix may move before the comparison stops being about the prompt. */
+export const MAX_MODEL_MIX_DRIFT = 0.1;
+
+/**
+ * How far the call volume may move, as a ratio.
+ *
+ * Half again, either way. Ordinary week-to-week traffic moves less than that;
+ * a workload that doubled is usually a workload whose population changed.
+ */
+export const MAX_VOLUME_RATIO = 1.5;
+
+/** How far outcome coverage may move before the two rates describe different populations. */
+export const MAX_COVERAGE_DRIFT = 0.1;
+
+export type Confounder =
+  | { kind: 'model-mix-moved'; drift: number; model: string }
+  | { kind: 'volume-moved'; beforeCalls: number; afterCalls: number; ratio: number }
+  | { kind: 'coverage-moved'; before: number; after: number };
+
+export type GateVerdict = 'held' | 'dropped' | 'cannot-tell';
+
+export type GateUnknown =
+  | 'too-few-before'
+  | 'too-few-after'
+  | 'confounded'
+  | 'no-vocabulary'
+  | 'not-separable';
+
+/** One side of the boundary, as the caller measured it. */
+export interface GateSide {
+  arm: ExperimentArm;
+  /** Every call in the window, outcome or not — the coverage denominator. */
+  calls: number;
+  /** Spend per model, for the mix comparison. */
+  usdByModel: Array<{ model: string; usd: number }>;
+}
+
+export interface QualityGate {
+  verdict: GateVerdict;
+  /** Why, when the verdict is `cannot-tell`. A refusal never arrives bare. */
+  unknown: GateUnknown | null;
+  before: ArmResult;
+  after: ArmResult;
+  /** The 95% interval on (after − before), or null. */
+  difference: { point: number; low: number; high: number } | null;
+  /**
+   * Everything found that means the prompt is not the only variable.
+   *
+   * Non-empty forces `cannot-tell`. Reported even on a `held` verdict, because
+   * a rate that held while the model changed underneath is not evidence that
+   * the prompt is fine either.
+   */
+  confounders: Confounder[];
+  /**
+   * The cost half — measured, and kept beside the quality half rather than
+   * merged with it. The sentence teams argue about needs both.
+   */
+  cost: { beforeUsdPerCall: number; afterUsdPerCall: number; deltaUsdPerCall: number } | null;
+  /** Outcomes behind the comparison, so the claim carries its own sample size. */
+  outcomes: { before: number; after: number };
+}
+
+function mixDrift(
+  before: Array<{ model: string; usd: number }>,
+  after: Array<{ model: string; usd: number }>,
+): Confounder | null {
+  const share = (rows: Array<{ model: string; usd: number }>): Map<string, number> => {
+    const total = rows.reduce((sum, row) => sum + row.usd, 0);
+    const out = new Map<string, number>();
+    if (total <= 0) return out;
+    for (const row of rows) out.set(row.model, (out.get(row.model) ?? 0) + row.usd / total);
+    return out;
+  };
+  const a = share(before);
+  const b = share(after);
+  let worst: { model: string; drift: number } | null = null;
+  for (const model of new Set([...a.keys(), ...b.keys()])) {
+    const drift = Math.abs((b.get(model) ?? 0) - (a.get(model) ?? 0));
+    if (worst === null || drift > worst.drift) worst = { model, drift };
+  }
+  if (worst === null || worst.drift <= MAX_MODEL_MIX_DRIFT) return null;
+  return { kind: 'model-mix-moved', drift: worst.drift, model: worst.model };
+}
+
+export function qualityGate(
+  before: GateSide,
+  after: GateSide,
+  vocabulary: OutcomeVocabulary | null,
+): QualityGate {
+  /**
+   * The statistics are `experiment`'s, deliberately.
+   *
+   * One implementation of a two-proportion comparison, so a gate and a
+   * deliberate experiment can never disagree about the same two numbers — the
+   * failure mode where a team runs both and gets two answers, then trusts
+   * whichever one they liked.
+   */
+  const stats = runExperiment(
+    { arms: ['before', 'after'], minOutcomesPerArm: MIN_OUTCOMES_EACH_SIDE },
+    { a: { ...after.arm, name: 'after' }, b: { ...before.arm, name: 'before' } },
+    vocabulary,
+  );
+
+  const outcomes = { before: stats.b.recorded, after: stats.a.recorded };
+  const cost =
+    before.calls > 0 && after.calls > 0
+      ? {
+          beforeUsdPerCall: before.arm.totalUsd / before.calls,
+          afterUsdPerCall: after.arm.totalUsd / after.calls,
+          deltaUsdPerCall: after.arm.totalUsd / after.calls - before.arm.totalUsd / before.calls,
+        }
+      : null;
+
+  const confounders: Confounder[] = [];
+  const mix = mixDrift(before.usdByModel, after.usdByModel);
+  if (mix !== null) confounders.push(mix);
+
+  if (before.calls > 0 && after.calls > 0) {
+    const ratio = after.calls / before.calls;
+    if (ratio > MAX_VOLUME_RATIO || ratio < 1 / MAX_VOLUME_RATIO) {
+      confounders.push({
+        kind: 'volume-moved',
+        beforeCalls: before.calls,
+        afterCalls: after.calls,
+        ratio,
+      });
+    }
+    /**
+     * Coverage, the one nobody thinks of.
+     *
+     * A team that starts instrumenting its hard cases sees its measured rate
+     * fall without anything having got worse. Comparing two rates over
+     * differently-selected populations is the most convincing wrong answer
+     * this module could produce.
+     */
+    const coverageBefore = outcomes.before / before.calls;
+    const coverageAfter = outcomes.after / after.calls;
+    if (Math.abs(coverageAfter - coverageBefore) > MAX_COVERAGE_DRIFT) {
+      confounders.push({ kind: 'coverage-moved', before: coverageBefore, after: coverageAfter });
+    }
+  }
+
+  const shell = {
+    before: stats.b,
+    after: stats.a,
+    difference: stats.difference,
+    confounders,
+    cost,
+    outcomes,
+  };
+
+  if (vocabulary === null || vocabulary.success.length === 0) {
+    return { ...shell, verdict: 'cannot-tell', unknown: 'no-vocabulary' };
+  }
+  if (outcomes.before < MIN_OUTCOMES_EACH_SIDE) {
+    return { ...shell, verdict: 'cannot-tell', unknown: 'too-few-before' };
+  }
+  if (outcomes.after < MIN_OUTCOMES_EACH_SIDE) {
+    return { ...shell, verdict: 'cannot-tell', unknown: 'too-few-after' };
+  }
+  /**
+   * A confounder outranks the statistics.
+   *
+   * Checked after the sample sizes and before the verdict, so a build is never
+   * failed on a difference that something else could equally explain. A gate
+   * that blames the prompt because the prompt is the thing it can see gets
+   * switched off within a month, and a switched-off gate catches nothing.
+   */
+  if (confounders.length > 0) {
+    return { ...shell, verdict: 'cannot-tell', unknown: 'confounded' };
+  }
+  if (stats.separation === 'not-separable') {
+    /**
+     * Not separable is `cannot-tell`, never `held`.
+     *
+     * "The rate did not measurably fall" and "the rate held" are different
+     * claims, and a gate that spells them the same way passes a real
+     * regression it merely lacked the power to see. `verify` has held this
+     * line since 1.39 and it matters more here, because this one is wired to
+     * an exit code.
+     */
+    return { ...shell, verdict: 'cannot-tell', unknown: 'not-separable' };
+  }
+  // `a` is the *after* arm, so `a-wins` means the rate went up.
+  return {
+    ...shell,
+    verdict: stats.separation === 'a-wins' ? 'held' : 'dropped',
+    unknown: null,
+  };
+}