@trazum/core 1.50.6 → 1.50.7

package/dist/experiment.d.ts

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+/**
+ * Two arms on real traffic, and the three things that stop it being theatre.
+ *
+ * `eval` compares two prompts on cases somebody wrote; `route` compares two
+ * models on the same. Both measure agreement in a laboratory. The traffic is
+ * the only place the real question gets answered — and the moment a comparison
+ * runs on real traffic, three failures become available that a laboratory does
+ * not have.
+ *
+ * ## 1. A winner where there is none
+ *
+ * Two arms always produce two numbers, and one of them is always larger. An
+ * A/B report that names a winner from that is a coin flip with a dashboard.
+ * The verdict here is **three-valued**, the way `verify`'s has been since
+ * 1.39: A wins, B wins, or **not separable on this traffic** — and the third
+ * one comes with the number of outcomes per arm that *would* separate them, so
+ * "run it longer" is a quantified instruction rather than a shrug.
+ *
+ * ## 2. Peeking
+ *
+ * A test stopped on the first afternoon it looked good is not a test. The
+ * stopping rule is declared **before** the experiment starts, and the report
+ * says whether it was honoured. It cannot enforce that — nobody can stop
+ * somebody reading a number early — but it can make an early stop *visible*
+ * to whoever reads the result later, which is the part that matters.
+ *
+ * ## 3. Quality and cost judged apart, then together
+ *
+ * The interesting arm is almost never better *and* cheaper. It is better and
+ * dearer, and the decision needs one figure nobody computes: **what an extra
+ * success costs**. That is the marginal figure — the difference in spend over
+ * the difference in successes — and it is the number a product decision
+ * actually turns on, printed rather than left as an exercise.
+ *
+ * ## The statistics are shown, not asserted
+ *
+ * Wilson score intervals per arm and Newcombe's interval on the difference,
+ * because both behave at the small samples this will actually see. The
+ * intervals are returned, not just the verdict: a reader who disagrees with
+ * the threshold can see the numbers it was applied to, which is the same
+ * discipline `eval` established by running the original twice before judging
+ * anything against it.
+ */
+import type { OutcomeTally, OutcomeVocabulary } from './outcome.js';
+/**
+ * The declaration, made before the experiment runs.
+ *
+ * Its whole purpose is to exist *earlier* than the result. A stopping rule
+ * invented after looking at the numbers is not a stopping rule.
+ */
+export interface ExperimentDeclaration {
+    /** Two arms. More would need a multiple-comparison correction nobody asked for. */
+    arms: [string, string];
+    /**
+     * Outcomes each arm must record before the result may be read.
+     *
+     * Declared as a count rather than a duration, because a duration is a proxy
+     * for a count and the proxy breaks the week traffic doubles.
+     */
+    minOutcomesPerArm: number;
+}
+/** What one arm actually did. */
+export interface ExperimentArm {
+    name: string;
+    tally: OutcomeTally;
+    /** Everything this arm spent, recorded outcome or not. */
+    totalUsd: number;
+}
+export interface ArmResult {
+    name: string;
+    successes: number;
+    /** Calls carrying a *declared* outcome — the denominator. */
+    recorded: number;
+    /** Successes over recorded, or null when nothing was recorded. */
+    rate: number | null;
+    /** Wilson score interval on that rate, or null. */
+    interval: {
+        low: number;
+        high: number;
+    } | null;
+    /** Spend on calls carrying a declared outcome. */
+    recordedUsd: number;
+}
+export type Separation = 'a-wins' | 'b-wins' | 'not-separable';
+export type NotSeparableReason = 'interval-includes-zero' | 'no-difference-observed' | 'nothing-recorded';
+export interface Marginal {
+    /**
+     * What one extra success costs, going from the worse arm to the better one.
+     *
+     * `(dearer spend − cheaper spend) / (more successes − fewer successes)`,
+     * both per call so arms of different sizes compare. Null when the better arm
+     * is also the cheaper one, because then nothing is being bought and a
+     * "cost per extra success" would be a negative number people would quote.
+     */
+    usdPerExtraSuccess: number | null;
+    /** The arm that resolved more, by rate. */
+    better: string;
+    /** Whether that arm also costs more per call. */
+    dearer: boolean;
+}
+export interface ExperimentResult {
+    a: ArmResult;
+    b: ArmResult;
+    separation: Separation;
+    /** Why, when not separable. A refusal never arrives bare. */
+    notSeparable: NotSeparableReason | null;
+    /** Newcombe's interval on (rate A − rate B), or null. */
+    difference: {
+        point: number;
+        low: number;
+        high: number;
+    } | null;
+    /**
+     * Outcomes **per arm** that would separate the observed difference, or null.
+     *
+     * Null when the arms recorded the same rate: no sample size separates a
+     * difference of zero, and returning a very large number would read as "keep
+     * going" when the honest answer is "there is nothing here to find".
+     */
+    outcomesNeededPerArm: number | null;
+    stopping: {
+        declared: number;
+        /** Whether both arms cleared the declared minimum. */
+        honoured: boolean;
+        /** The arm that has not, when one has not. */
+        short: string | null;
+    };
+    marginal: Marginal | null;
+}
+export declare function runExperiment(declaration: ExperimentDeclaration, arms: {
+    a: ExperimentArm;
+    b: ExperimentArm;
+}, vocabulary: OutcomeVocabulary | null): ExperimentResult;
+//# sourceMappingURL=experiment.d.ts.map

package/dist/experiment.d.ts.map

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package/dist/experiment.js

@@ -0,0 +1,168 @@
+/**
+ * Two arms on real traffic, and the three things that stop it being theatre.
+ *
+ * `eval` compares two prompts on cases somebody wrote; `route` compares two
+ * models on the same. Both measure agreement in a laboratory. The traffic is
+ * the only place the real question gets answered — and the moment a comparison
+ * runs on real traffic, three failures become available that a laboratory does
+ * not have.
+ *
+ * ## 1. A winner where there is none
+ *
+ * Two arms always produce two numbers, and one of them is always larger. An
+ * A/B report that names a winner from that is a coin flip with a dashboard.
+ * The verdict here is **three-valued**, the way `verify`'s has been since
+ * 1.39: A wins, B wins, or **not separable on this traffic** — and the third
+ * one comes with the number of outcomes per arm that *would* separate them, so
+ * "run it longer" is a quantified instruction rather than a shrug.
+ *
+ * ## 2. Peeking
+ *
+ * A test stopped on the first afternoon it looked good is not a test. The
+ * stopping rule is declared **before** the experiment starts, and the report
+ * says whether it was honoured. It cannot enforce that — nobody can stop
+ * somebody reading a number early — but it can make an early stop *visible*
+ * to whoever reads the result later, which is the part that matters.
+ *
+ * ## 3. Quality and cost judged apart, then together
+ *
+ * The interesting arm is almost never better *and* cheaper. It is better and
+ * dearer, and the decision needs one figure nobody computes: **what an extra
+ * success costs**. That is the marginal figure — the difference in spend over
+ * the difference in successes — and it is the number a product decision
+ * actually turns on, printed rather than left as an exercise.
+ *
+ * ## The statistics are shown, not asserted
+ *
+ * Wilson score intervals per arm and Newcombe's interval on the difference,
+ * because both behave at the small samples this will actually see. The
+ * intervals are returned, not just the verdict: a reader who disagrees with
+ * the threshold can see the numbers it was applied to, which is the same
+ * discipline `eval` established by running the original twice before judging
+ * anything against it.
+ */
+import { judgeOutcome } from './outcome.js';
+/** z for a two-sided 95% interval, and for 80% power. */
+const Z_95 = 1.959963984540054;
+const Z_POWER_80 = 0.8416212335729143;
+/** Wilson score interval — behaves at the sample sizes this will actually see. */
+function wilson(successes, n, z = Z_95) {
+    if (n <= 0)
+        return null;
+    const p = successes / n;
+    const denominator = 1 + (z * z) / n;
+    const centre = (p + (z * z) / (2 * n)) / denominator;
+    const half = (z * Math.sqrt((p * (1 - p)) / n + (z * z) / (4 * n * n))) / denominator;
+    return { low: Math.max(0, centre - half), high: Math.min(1, centre + half) };
+}
+function resultOf(arm, vocabulary) {
+    const declared = vocabulary ?? { values: [], success: [] };
+    let successes = 0;
+    let recorded = 0;
+    let recordedUsd = 0;
+    for (const entry of arm.tally.byValue) {
+        // Undeclared values are out of both halves, as everywhere since 1.50.4: a
+        // typo in an exporter must not decide an experiment.
+        if (judgeOutcome(entry.value, declared) === 'undeclared')
+            continue;
+        recorded += entry.calls;
+        recordedUsd += entry.usd;
+        if (declared.success.includes(entry.value))
+            successes += entry.calls;
+    }
+    return {
+        name: arm.name,
+        successes,
+        recorded,
+        rate: recorded > 0 ? successes / recorded : null,
+        interval: wilson(successes, recorded),
+        recordedUsd,
+    };
+}
+export function runExperiment(declaration, arms, vocabulary) {
+    const a = resultOf(arms.a, vocabulary);
+    const b = resultOf(arms.b, vocabulary);
+    const stopping = {
+        declared: declaration.minOutcomesPerArm,
+        honoured: a.recorded >= declaration.minOutcomesPerArm && b.recorded >= declaration.minOutcomesPerArm,
+        short: a.recorded < declaration.minOutcomesPerArm
+            ? a.name
+            : b.recorded < declaration.minOutcomesPerArm
+                ? b.name
+                : null,
+    };
+    const bare = (reason) => ({
+        a,
+        b,
+        separation: 'not-separable',
+        notSeparable: reason,
+        difference: null,
+        outcomesNeededPerArm: null,
+        stopping,
+        marginal: null,
+    });
+    if (a.rate === null || b.rate === null || a.interval === null || b.interval === null) {
+        return bare('nothing-recorded');
+    }
+    /**
+     * Newcombe's interval on the difference, built from the two Wilson
+     * intervals rather than from a normal approximation to the difference.
+     *
+     * The naive interval is symmetric and can run past 0 or 1, which at the
+     * sample sizes a real experiment starts with is not an edge case — it is
+     * most of the first week.
+     */
+    const point = a.rate - b.rate;
+    const low = point - Math.sqrt((a.rate - a.interval.low) ** 2 + (b.interval.high - b.rate) ** 2);
+    const high = point + Math.sqrt((a.interval.high - a.rate) ** 2 + (b.rate - b.interval.low) ** 2);
+    const difference = { point, low, high };
+    /**
+     * How many outcomes per arm would separate the difference *observed so far*.
+     *
+     * A standard two-proportion power calculation at 95% confidence and 80%
+     * power. It is an estimate about a difference that may itself be noise, and
+     * it is offered as "how much longer" rather than as a promise — but a number
+     * somebody can act on beats "not significant", which tells a reader nothing
+     * about whether to wait a day or abandon the idea.
+     */
+    const spread = Math.abs(point);
+    const outcomesNeededPerArm = spread === 0
+        ? null
+        : Math.ceil((((Z_95 + Z_POWER_80) ** 2) * (a.rate * (1 - a.rate) + b.rate * (1 - b.rate))) /
+            (spread * spread));
+    const perCallA = arms.a.tally.parsed > 0 ? arms.a.totalUsd / arms.a.tally.parsed : 0;
+    const perCallB = arms.b.tally.parsed > 0 ? arms.b.totalUsd / arms.b.tally.parsed : 0;
+    const better = a.rate >= b.rate ? a : b;
+    const worse = better === a ? b : a;
+    const betterPerCall = better === a ? perCallA : perCallB;
+    const worsePerCall = better === a ? perCallB : perCallA;
+    const rateGap = better.rate - worse.rate;
+    const marginal = {
+        /**
+         * Per call on both sides, so arms that took different shares of the
+         * traffic compare. Dividing raw totals would report a marginal cost that
+         * moves when the split changes and the behaviour does not.
+         */
+        usdPerExtraSuccess: betterPerCall > worsePerCall && rateGap > 0
+            ? (betterPerCall - worsePerCall) / rateGap
+            : null,
+        better: better.name,
+        dearer: betterPerCall > worsePerCall,
+    };
+    if (spread === 0)
+        return { ...bare('no-difference-observed'), difference, marginal };
+    if (low <= 0 && high >= 0) {
+        return { ...bare('interval-includes-zero'), difference, outcomesNeededPerArm, marginal };
+    }
+    return {
+        a,
+        b,
+        separation: point > 0 ? 'a-wins' : 'b-wins',
+        notSeparable: null,
+        difference,
+        outcomesNeededPerArm,
+        stopping,
+        marginal,
+    };
+}
+//# sourceMappingURL=experiment.js.map

package/dist/experiment.js.map

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
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package/dist/index.d.ts

@@ -19,6 +19,8 @@ export type { PlanAction, PlanActionKind, PlanAssumption, PlanDocument } from '.
 export { verifyPlan } from './verify.js';
 export { buildHistory, storedReportFrom, MIN_RUN } from './history.js';
 export { outcomeReport, judgeOutcome, OUTCOME_UNLOCKS } from './outcome.js';
+export { runExperiment } from './experiment.js';
+export type { ArmResult, ExperimentArm, ExperimentDeclaration, ExperimentResult, Marginal, NotSeparableReason, Separation, } from './experiment.js';
 export { ladderArithmetic, ladderPosition, validateLadder, MIN_CALLS_FOR_LADDER, BREAK_EVEN_BAND, } from './ladder.js';
 export type { LadderArithmetic, LadderPolicy, LadderPosition, LadderProblem, LadderUnknown, LadderVerdict, } from './ladder.js';
 export { perOutcome, rankPerOutcome, MIN_OUTCOMES_FOR_RATE, MIN_COVERAGE_FOR_RATE, } from './per-outcome.js';

package/dist/index.d.ts.map

@@ -1 +1 @@
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package/dist/index.js

@@ -22,6 +22,7 @@ export { buildPlan, planLabelName, parsePlanDocument, PLAN_ACTION_KINDS } from '
 export { verifyPlan } from './verify.js';
 export { buildHistory, storedReportFrom, MIN_RUN } from './history.js';
 export { outcomeReport, judgeOutcome, OUTCOME_UNLOCKS } from './outcome.js';
+export { runExperiment } from './experiment.js';
 export { ladderArithmetic, ladderPosition, validateLadder, MIN_CALLS_FOR_LADDER, BREAK_EVEN_BAND, } from './ladder.js';
 export { perOutcome, rankPerOutcome, MIN_OUTCOMES_FOR_RATE, MIN_COVERAGE_FOR_RATE, } from './per-outcome.js';
 export { gatewayDecision, usageFromResponse, FAILURE_POLICIES } from './gateway.js';

package/dist/index.js.map

@@ -1 +1 @@
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package/package.json

@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
 {
   "name": "@trazum/core",
-  "version": "1.50.6",
+  "version": "1.50.7",
   "description": "Trazum core: priced advisories for LLM prompts (caching, model tier, batching, schemas), plus deterministic trimming, token counting and pricing.",
   "license": "MIT",
   "author": "David Mu\u00f1oz Rey",

package/src/experiment.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,275 @@
+/**
+ * Two arms on real traffic, and the three things that stop it being theatre.
+ *
+ * `eval` compares two prompts on cases somebody wrote; `route` compares two
+ * models on the same. Both measure agreement in a laboratory. The traffic is
+ * the only place the real question gets answered — and the moment a comparison
+ * runs on real traffic, three failures become available that a laboratory does
+ * not have.
+ *
+ * ## 1. A winner where there is none
+ *
+ * Two arms always produce two numbers, and one of them is always larger. An
+ * A/B report that names a winner from that is a coin flip with a dashboard.
+ * The verdict here is **three-valued**, the way `verify`'s has been since
+ * 1.39: A wins, B wins, or **not separable on this traffic** — and the third
+ * one comes with the number of outcomes per arm that *would* separate them, so
+ * "run it longer" is a quantified instruction rather than a shrug.
+ *
+ * ## 2. Peeking
+ *
+ * A test stopped on the first afternoon it looked good is not a test. The
+ * stopping rule is declared **before** the experiment starts, and the report
+ * says whether it was honoured. It cannot enforce that — nobody can stop
+ * somebody reading a number early — but it can make an early stop *visible*
+ * to whoever reads the result later, which is the part that matters.
+ *
+ * ## 3. Quality and cost judged apart, then together
+ *
+ * The interesting arm is almost never better *and* cheaper. It is better and
+ * dearer, and the decision needs one figure nobody computes: **what an extra
+ * success costs**. That is the marginal figure — the difference in spend over
+ * the difference in successes — and it is the number a product decision
+ * actually turns on, printed rather than left as an exercise.
+ *
+ * ## The statistics are shown, not asserted
+ *
+ * Wilson score intervals per arm and Newcombe's interval on the difference,
+ * because both behave at the small samples this will actually see. The
+ * intervals are returned, not just the verdict: a reader who disagrees with
+ * the threshold can see the numbers it was applied to, which is the same
+ * discipline `eval` established by running the original twice before judging
+ * anything against it.
+ */
+
+import { judgeOutcome } from './outcome.js';
+import type { OutcomeTally, OutcomeVocabulary } from './outcome.js';
+
+/** z for a two-sided 95% interval, and for 80% power. */
+const Z_95 = 1.959963984540054;
+const Z_POWER_80 = 0.8416212335729143;
+
+/**
+ * The declaration, made before the experiment runs.
+ *
+ * Its whole purpose is to exist *earlier* than the result. A stopping rule
+ * invented after looking at the numbers is not a stopping rule.
+ */
+export interface ExperimentDeclaration {
+  /** Two arms. More would need a multiple-comparison correction nobody asked for. */
+  arms: [string, string];
+  /**
+   * Outcomes each arm must record before the result may be read.
+   *
+   * Declared as a count rather than a duration, because a duration is a proxy
+   * for a count and the proxy breaks the week traffic doubles.
+   */
+  minOutcomesPerArm: number;
+}
+
+/** What one arm actually did. */
+export interface ExperimentArm {
+  name: string;
+  tally: OutcomeTally;
+  /** Everything this arm spent, recorded outcome or not. */
+  totalUsd: number;
+}
+
+export interface ArmResult {
+  name: string;
+  successes: number;
+  /** Calls carrying a *declared* outcome — the denominator. */
+  recorded: number;
+  /** Successes over recorded, or null when nothing was recorded. */
+  rate: number | null;
+  /** Wilson score interval on that rate, or null. */
+  interval: { low: number; high: number } | null;
+  /** Spend on calls carrying a declared outcome. */
+  recordedUsd: number;
+}
+
+export type Separation = 'a-wins' | 'b-wins' | 'not-separable';
+
+export type NotSeparableReason =
+  | 'interval-includes-zero'
+  | 'no-difference-observed'
+  | 'nothing-recorded';
+
+export interface Marginal {
+  /**
+   * What one extra success costs, going from the worse arm to the better one.
+   *
+   * `(dearer spend − cheaper spend) / (more successes − fewer successes)`,
+   * both per call so arms of different sizes compare. Null when the better arm
+   * is also the cheaper one, because then nothing is being bought and a
+   * "cost per extra success" would be a negative number people would quote.
+   */
+  usdPerExtraSuccess: number | null;
+  /** The arm that resolved more, by rate. */
+  better: string;
+  /** Whether that arm also costs more per call. */
+  dearer: boolean;
+}
+
+export interface ExperimentResult {
+  a: ArmResult;
+  b: ArmResult;
+  separation: Separation;
+  /** Why, when not separable. A refusal never arrives bare. */
+  notSeparable: NotSeparableReason | null;
+  /** Newcombe's interval on (rate A − rate B), or null. */
+  difference: { point: number; low: number; high: number } | null;
+  /**
+   * Outcomes **per arm** that would separate the observed difference, or null.
+   *
+   * Null when the arms recorded the same rate: no sample size separates a
+   * difference of zero, and returning a very large number would read as "keep
+   * going" when the honest answer is "there is nothing here to find".
+   */
+  outcomesNeededPerArm: number | null;
+  stopping: {
+    declared: number;
+    /** Whether both arms cleared the declared minimum. */
+    honoured: boolean;
+    /** The arm that has not, when one has not. */
+    short: string | null;
+  };
+  marginal: Marginal | null;
+}
+
+/** Wilson score interval — behaves at the sample sizes this will actually see. */
+function wilson(successes: number, n: number, z = Z_95): { low: number; high: number } | null {
+  if (n <= 0) return null;
+  const p = successes / n;
+  const denominator = 1 + (z * z) / n;
+  const centre = (p + (z * z) / (2 * n)) / denominator;
+  const half = (z * Math.sqrt((p * (1 - p)) / n + (z * z) / (4 * n * n))) / denominator;
+  return { low: Math.max(0, centre - half), high: Math.min(1, centre + half) };
+}
+
+function resultOf(arm: ExperimentArm, vocabulary: OutcomeVocabulary | null): ArmResult {
+  const declared = vocabulary ?? { values: [], success: [] };
+  let successes = 0;
+  let recorded = 0;
+  let recordedUsd = 0;
+  for (const entry of arm.tally.byValue) {
+    // Undeclared values are out of both halves, as everywhere since 1.50.4: a
+    // typo in an exporter must not decide an experiment.
+    if (judgeOutcome(entry.value, declared) === 'undeclared') continue;
+    recorded += entry.calls;
+    recordedUsd += entry.usd;
+    if (declared.success.includes(entry.value)) successes += entry.calls;
+  }
+  return {
+    name: arm.name,
+    successes,
+    recorded,
+    rate: recorded > 0 ? successes / recorded : null,
+    interval: wilson(successes, recorded),
+    recordedUsd,
+  };
+}
+
+export function runExperiment(
+  declaration: ExperimentDeclaration,
+  arms: { a: ExperimentArm; b: ExperimentArm },
+  vocabulary: OutcomeVocabulary | null,
+): ExperimentResult {
+  const a = resultOf(arms.a, vocabulary);
+  const b = resultOf(arms.b, vocabulary);
+
+  const stopping = {
+    declared: declaration.minOutcomesPerArm,
+    honoured: a.recorded >= declaration.minOutcomesPerArm && b.recorded >= declaration.minOutcomesPerArm,
+    short:
+      a.recorded < declaration.minOutcomesPerArm
+        ? a.name
+        : b.recorded < declaration.minOutcomesPerArm
+          ? b.name
+          : null,
+  };
+
+  const bare = (reason: NotSeparableReason): ExperimentResult => ({
+    a,
+    b,
+    separation: 'not-separable',
+    notSeparable: reason,
+    difference: null,
+    outcomesNeededPerArm: null,
+    stopping,
+    marginal: null,
+  });
+
+  if (a.rate === null || b.rate === null || a.interval === null || b.interval === null) {
+    return bare('nothing-recorded');
+  }
+
+  /**
+   * Newcombe's interval on the difference, built from the two Wilson
+   * intervals rather than from a normal approximation to the difference.
+   *
+   * The naive interval is symmetric and can run past 0 or 1, which at the
+   * sample sizes a real experiment starts with is not an edge case — it is
+   * most of the first week.
+   */
+  const point = a.rate - b.rate;
+  const low = point - Math.sqrt((a.rate - a.interval.low) ** 2 + (b.interval.high - b.rate) ** 2);
+  const high = point + Math.sqrt((a.interval.high - a.rate) ** 2 + (b.rate - b.interval.low) ** 2);
+  const difference = { point, low, high };
+
+  /**
+   * How many outcomes per arm would separate the difference *observed so far*.
+   *
+   * A standard two-proportion power calculation at 95% confidence and 80%
+   * power. It is an estimate about a difference that may itself be noise, and
+   * it is offered as "how much longer" rather than as a promise — but a number
+   * somebody can act on beats "not significant", which tells a reader nothing
+   * about whether to wait a day or abandon the idea.
+   */
+  const spread = Math.abs(point);
+  const outcomesNeededPerArm =
+    spread === 0
+      ? null
+      : Math.ceil(
+          (((Z_95 + Z_POWER_80) ** 2) * (a.rate * (1 - a.rate) + b.rate * (1 - b.rate))) /
+            (spread * spread),
+        );
+
+  const perCallA = arms.a.tally.parsed > 0 ? arms.a.totalUsd / arms.a.tally.parsed : 0;
+  const perCallB = arms.b.tally.parsed > 0 ? arms.b.totalUsd / arms.b.tally.parsed : 0;
+  const better = a.rate >= b.rate ? a : b;
+  const worse = better === a ? b : a;
+  const betterPerCall = better === a ? perCallA : perCallB;
+  const worsePerCall = better === a ? perCallB : perCallA;
+  const rateGap = (better.rate as number) - (worse.rate as number);
+
+  const marginal: Marginal = {
+    /**
+     * Per call on both sides, so arms that took different shares of the
+     * traffic compare. Dividing raw totals would report a marginal cost that
+     * moves when the split changes and the behaviour does not.
+     */
+    usdPerExtraSuccess:
+      betterPerCall > worsePerCall && rateGap > 0
+        ? (betterPerCall - worsePerCall) / rateGap
+        : null,
+    better: better.name,
+    dearer: betterPerCall > worsePerCall,
+  };
+
+  if (spread === 0) return { ...bare('no-difference-observed'), difference, marginal };
+  if (low <= 0 && high >= 0) {
+    return { ...bare('interval-includes-zero'), difference, outcomesNeededPerArm, marginal };
+  }
+
+  return {
+    a,
+    b,
+    separation: point > 0 ? 'a-wins' : 'b-wins',
+    notSeparable: null,
+    difference,
+    outcomesNeededPerArm,
+    stopping,
+    marginal,
+  };
+}

package/src/index.ts

@@ -50,6 +50,16 @@ export type { PlanAction, PlanActionKind, PlanAssumption, PlanDocument } from '.
 export { verifyPlan } from './verify.js';
 export { buildHistory, storedReportFrom, MIN_RUN } from './history.js';
 export { outcomeReport, judgeOutcome, OUTCOME_UNLOCKS } from './outcome.js';
+export { runExperiment } from './experiment.js';
+export type {
+  ArmResult,
+  ExperimentArm,
+  ExperimentDeclaration,
+  ExperimentResult,
+  Marginal,
+  NotSeparableReason,
+  Separation,
+} from './experiment.js';
 export {
   ladderArithmetic,
   ladderPosition,