@timmeck/trading-brain 2.0.2 → 2.1.0

package/dist/services/import.service.d.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,24 @@
+import type { TradeService } from './trade.service.js';
+import type { SignalInput } from '../signals/fingerprint.js';
+export interface ImportTradeRow {
+    pair: string;
+    botType: string;
+    profitPct: number;
+    win: boolean;
+    signals: SignalInput;
+    regime?: string;
+    timeframe?: string;
+}
+export interface ImportResult {
+    imported: number;
+    failed: number;
+    errors: string[];
+}
+export declare class ImportService {
+    private tradeService;
+    private logger;
+    constructor(tradeService: TradeService);
+    importTrades(trades: ImportTradeRow[]): ImportResult;
+    importFromJson(jsonString: string): ImportResult;
+    private validateRow;
+}

package/dist/services/import.service.js

@@ -0,0 +1,94 @@
+import { getLogger } from '../utils/logger.js';
+export class ImportService {
+    tradeService;
+    logger = getLogger();
+    constructor(tradeService) {
+        this.tradeService = tradeService;
+    }
+    importTrades(trades) {
+        let imported = 0;
+        let failed = 0;
+        const errors = [];
+        for (let i = 0; i < trades.length; i++) {
+            const row = trades[i];
+            try {
+                const input = {
+                    pair: row.pair,
+                    botType: row.botType,
+                    profitPct: row.profitPct,
+                    win: row.win,
+                    signals: row.signals,
+                    regime: row.regime,
+                };
+                this.tradeService.recordOutcome(input);
+                imported++;
+            }
+            catch (err) {
+                failed++;
+                const msg = `Row ${i}: ${err instanceof Error ? err.message : String(err)}`;
+                errors.push(msg);
+                this.logger.info(`Import error at row ${i}: ${msg}`);
+            }
+        }
+        this.logger.info(`Import complete: ${imported} imported, ${failed} failed`);
+        return { imported, failed, errors };
+    }
+    importFromJson(jsonString) {
+        let parsed;
+        try {
+            parsed = JSON.parse(jsonString);
+        }
+        catch (err) {
+            const msg = `Invalid JSON: ${err instanceof Error ? err.message : String(err)}`;
+            this.logger.info(`Import failed: ${msg}`);
+            return { imported: 0, failed: 0, errors: [msg] };
+        }
+        if (!Array.isArray(parsed)) {
+            const msg = 'Expected a JSON array of trade objects';
+            this.logger.info(`Import failed: ${msg}`);
+            return { imported: 0, failed: 0, errors: [msg] };
+        }
+        const validationErrors = [];
+        const validRows = [];
+        for (let i = 0; i < parsed.length; i++) {
+            const item = parsed[i];
+            const rowErrors = this.validateRow(item, i);
+            if (rowErrors.length > 0) {
+                validationErrors.push(...rowErrors);
+            }
+            else {
+                validRows.push({
+                    pair: item['pair'],
+                    botType: item['botType'],
+                    profitPct: item['profitPct'],
+                    win: item['win'],
+                    signals: item['signals'],
+                    regime: item['regime'],
+                    timeframe: item['timeframe'],
+                });
+            }
+        }
+        if (validRows.length === 0 && validationErrors.length > 0) {
+            return { imported: 0, failed: parsed.length, errors: validationErrors };
+        }
+        const result = this.importTrades(validRows);
+        result.failed += validationErrors.length;
+        result.errors.push(...validationErrors);
+        return result;
+    }
+    validateRow(item, index) {
+        const errors = [];
+        if (typeof item['pair'] !== 'string')
+            errors.push(`Row ${index}: missing or invalid "pair"`);
+        if (typeof item['botType'] !== 'string')
+            errors.push(`Row ${index}: missing or invalid "botType"`);
+        if (typeof item['profitPct'] !== 'number')
+            errors.push(`Row ${index}: missing or invalid "profitPct"`);
+        if (typeof item['win'] !== 'boolean')
+            errors.push(`Row ${index}: missing or invalid "win"`);
+        if (typeof item['signals'] !== 'object' || item['signals'] === null)
+            errors.push(`Row ${index}: missing or invalid "signals"`);
+        return errors;
+    }
+}
+//# sourceMappingURL=import.service.js.map

package/dist/services/import.service.js.map

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package/dist/services/risk.service.d.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,52 @@
+import type { TradeRepository } from '../db/repositories/trade.repository.js';
+import type { SignalService } from './signal.service.js';
+import type { SynapseManager } from '../synapses/synapse-manager.js';
+export interface KellyResult {
+    kellyFraction: number;
+    halfKelly: number;
+    brainAdjusted: number;
+    sampleSize: number;
+    winRate: number;
+    avgWin: number;
+    avgLoss: number;
+    recommendation: 'aggressive' | 'normal' | 'conservative' | 'avoid';
+}
+export interface PositionSizeResult {
+    sizePct: number;
+    kellyRaw: number;
+    confidence: number;
+    reason: string;
+}
+export interface RiskMetrics {
+    maxDrawdownPct: number;
+    currentDrawdownPct: number;
+    consecutiveLosses: number;
+    maxConsecutiveLosses: number;
+    riskRewardRatio: number;
+    expectancy: number;
+}
+export declare class RiskService {
+    private tradeRepo;
+    private signalService;
+    private synapseManager;
+    private logger;
+    constructor(tradeRepo: TradeRepository, signalService: SignalService, synapseManager: SynapseManager);
+    /**
+     * Calculate Kelly Criterion fraction for position sizing.
+     * K = W - (1-W)/R where W = win rate, R = avg win / avg loss ratio.
+     */
+    getKellyFraction(pair?: string, regime?: string): KellyResult;
+    /**
+     * Get a recommended position size based on Kelly Criterion and signal confidence.
+     * Caps at 25% of capital per position.
+     */
+    getPositionSize(capitalPct: number, signals: {
+        fingerprint: string;
+        confidence?: number;
+    }, regime?: string): PositionSizeResult;
+    /**
+     * Get risk metrics for overall portfolio or a specific pair.
+     */
+    getRiskMetrics(pair?: string): RiskMetrics;
+    private getFilteredTrades;
+}

package/dist/services/risk.service.js

@@ -0,0 +1,244 @@
+import { getLogger } from '../utils/logger.js';
+export class RiskService {
+    tradeRepo;
+    signalService;
+    synapseManager;
+    logger = getLogger();
+    constructor(tradeRepo, signalService, synapseManager) {
+        this.tradeRepo = tradeRepo;
+        this.signalService = signalService;
+        this.synapseManager = synapseManager;
+    }
+    /**
+     * Calculate Kelly Criterion fraction for position sizing.
+     * K = W - (1-W)/R where W = win rate, R = avg win / avg loss ratio.
+     */
+    getKellyFraction(pair, regime) {
+        const trades = this.getFilteredTrades(pair, regime);
+        if (trades.length === 0) {
+            this.logger.info('Kelly: no trades found for given filters');
+            return {
+                kellyFraction: 0,
+                halfKelly: 0,
+                brainAdjusted: 0,
+                sampleSize: 0,
+                winRate: 0,
+                avgWin: 0,
+                avgLoss: 0,
+                recommendation: 'avoid',
+            };
+        }
+        const wins = trades.filter(t => t.win === 1);
+        const losses = trades.filter(t => t.win === 0);
+        const winRate = wins.length / trades.length;
+        const avgWin = wins.length > 0
+            ? wins.reduce((s, t) => s + t.profit_pct, 0) / wins.length
+            : 0;
+        const avgLoss = losses.length > 0
+            ? Math.abs(losses.reduce((s, t) => s + t.profit_pct, 0) / losses.length)
+            : 0;
+        // Kelly formula: K = W - (1-W)/R
+        // R = avgWin / avgLoss (win/loss ratio)
+        let kellyFraction = 0;
+        if (avgLoss > 0) {
+            const R = avgWin / avgLoss;
+            kellyFraction = winRate - (1 - winRate) / R;
+        }
+        else if (winRate > 0) {
+            // No losses recorded — Kelly would be 1, but cap it
+            kellyFraction = winRate;
+        }
+        const halfKelly = kellyFraction / 2;
+        // Brain-adjusted: use synapse confidence for the most common fingerprint
+        let brainConfidence = 0.5;
+        if (trades.length > 0) {
+            // Find the most frequent fingerprint in the filtered trades
+            const fpCounts = new Map();
+            for (const t of trades) {
+                fpCounts.set(t.fingerprint, (fpCounts.get(t.fingerprint) ?? 0) + 1);
+            }
+            let topFp = '';
+            let topCount = 0;
+            for (const [fp, count] of fpCounts) {
+                if (count > topCount) {
+                    topFp = fp;
+                    topCount = count;
+                }
+            }
+            if (topFp) {
+                const synapse = this.synapseManager.getByFingerprint(topFp);
+                if (synapse && synapse.activations >= 3) {
+                    brainConfidence = synapse.weight;
+                }
+            }
+        }
+        const brainAdjusted = halfKelly * brainConfidence;
+        // Recommendation
+        let recommendation;
+        if (trades.length < 10 || kellyFraction <= 0) {
+            recommendation = 'avoid';
+        }
+        else if (kellyFraction > 0.25) {
+            recommendation = 'aggressive';
+        }
+        else if (kellyFraction > 0.1) {
+            recommendation = 'normal';
+        }
+        else {
+            recommendation = 'conservative';
+        }
+        this.logger.info(`Kelly: K=${kellyFraction.toFixed(3)} | half=${halfKelly.toFixed(3)} | ` +
+            `brainAdj=${brainAdjusted.toFixed(3)} | WR=${(winRate * 100).toFixed(1)}% | ` +
+            `n=${trades.length} → ${recommendation}`);
+        return {
+            kellyFraction,
+            halfKelly,
+            brainAdjusted,
+            sampleSize: trades.length,
+            winRate,
+            avgWin,
+            avgLoss,
+            recommendation,
+        };
+    }
+    /**
+     * Get a recommended position size based on Kelly Criterion and signal confidence.
+     * Caps at 25% of capital per position.
+     */
+    getPositionSize(capitalPct, signals, regime) {
+        const MAX_POSITION_PCT = 25;
+        const MIN_POSITION_PCT = 1;
+        // Get Kelly for the regime context
+        const kelly = this.getKellyFraction(undefined, regime);
+        // Signal confidence from synapse
+        let confidence = signals.confidence ?? 0.5;
+        const synapse = this.synapseManager.getByFingerprint(signals.fingerprint);
+        if (synapse && synapse.activations >= 3) {
+            confidence = synapse.weight;
+        }
+        let sizePct;
+        let reason;
+        if (kelly.recommendation === 'avoid') {
+            sizePct = MIN_POSITION_PCT;
+            reason = 'minimum size — Kelly suggests avoiding (insufficient data or negative edge)';
+        }
+        else {
+            // Base size from half-Kelly, scaled by confidence and capital percentage
+            sizePct = kelly.halfKelly * confidence * capitalPct * 100;
+            // Clamp to reasonable limits
+            sizePct = Math.max(MIN_POSITION_PCT, Math.min(MAX_POSITION_PCT, sizePct));
+            if (kelly.recommendation === 'conservative') {
+                sizePct = Math.min(sizePct, 5);
+                reason = `conservative — Kelly edge is thin (K=${kelly.kellyFraction.toFixed(3)})`;
+            }
+            else if (kelly.recommendation === 'aggressive') {
+                reason = `aggressive — strong edge detected (K=${kelly.kellyFraction.toFixed(3)}, conf=${confidence.toFixed(2)})`;
+            }
+            else {
+                reason = `normal — solid edge (K=${kelly.kellyFraction.toFixed(3)}, conf=${confidence.toFixed(2)})`;
+            }
+        }
+        this.logger.info(`Position size: ${sizePct.toFixed(1)}% | Kelly raw: ${kelly.kellyFraction.toFixed(3)} | ` +
+            `confidence: ${confidence.toFixed(2)} | ${reason}`);
+        return {
+            sizePct,
+            kellyRaw: kelly.kellyFraction,
+            confidence,
+            reason,
+        };
+    }
+    /**
+     * Get risk metrics for overall portfolio or a specific pair.
+     */
+    getRiskMetrics(pair) {
+        const trades = pair ? this.tradeRepo.getByPair(pair) : this.tradeRepo.getAll();
+        if (trades.length === 0) {
+            return {
+                maxDrawdownPct: 0,
+                currentDrawdownPct: 0,
+                consecutiveLosses: 0,
+                maxConsecutiveLosses: 0,
+                riskRewardRatio: 0,
+                expectancy: 0,
+            };
+        }
+        // Sort ascending by date for sequential analysis
+        const sorted = [...trades].sort((a, b) => a.created_at.localeCompare(b.created_at));
+        // Max drawdown (peak-to-trough on equity curve)
+        let cumulative = 0;
+        let peak = 0;
+        let maxDrawdown = 0;
+        for (const t of sorted) {
+            cumulative += t.profit_pct;
+            if (cumulative > peak)
+                peak = cumulative;
+            const drawdown = peak - cumulative;
+            if (drawdown > maxDrawdown)
+                maxDrawdown = drawdown;
+        }
+        // Current drawdown
+        const currentDrawdown = peak - cumulative;
+        // Consecutive losses (current streak + max ever)
+        let currentStreak = 0;
+        let maxStreak = 0;
+        let tempStreak = 0;
+        for (const t of sorted) {
+            if (t.win === 0) {
+                tempStreak++;
+                if (tempStreak > maxStreak)
+                    maxStreak = tempStreak;
+            }
+            else {
+                tempStreak = 0;
+            }
+        }
+        // Current streak: count from the end
+        for (let i = sorted.length - 1; i >= 0; i--) {
+            if (sorted[i].win === 0) {
+                currentStreak++;
+            }
+            else {
+                break;
+            }
+        }
+        // Win/loss stats
+        const wins = sorted.filter(t => t.win === 1);
+        const losses = sorted.filter(t => t.win === 0);
+        const avgWin = wins.length > 0
+            ? wins.reduce((s, t) => s + t.profit_pct, 0) / wins.length
+            : 0;
+        const avgLoss = losses.length > 0
+            ? Math.abs(losses.reduce((s, t) => s + t.profit_pct, 0) / losses.length)
+            : 0;
+        const winRate = wins.length / sorted.length;
+        // Risk-reward ratio: avgWin / avgLoss
+        const riskRewardRatio = avgLoss > 0 ? avgWin / avgLoss : avgWin > 0 ? Infinity : 0;
+        // Expectancy: W * avgWin - (1-W) * avgLoss
+        const expectancy = winRate * avgWin - (1 - winRate) * avgLoss;
+        this.logger.info(`Risk metrics${pair ? ` (${pair})` : ''}: MaxDD=${maxDrawdown.toFixed(2)}% | ` +
+            `CurDD=${currentDrawdown.toFixed(2)}% | ConsLoss=${currentStreak}/${maxStreak} | ` +
+            `RR=${riskRewardRatio === Infinity ? '∞' : riskRewardRatio.toFixed(2)} | E=${expectancy.toFixed(3)}`);
+        return {
+            maxDrawdownPct: maxDrawdown,
+            currentDrawdownPct: currentDrawdown,
+            consecutiveLosses: currentStreak,
+            maxConsecutiveLosses: maxStreak,
+            riskRewardRatio,
+            expectancy,
+        };
+    }
+    getFilteredTrades(pair, regime) {
+        let trades;
+        if (pair) {
+            trades = this.tradeRepo.getByPair(pair);
+        }
+        else {
+            trades = this.tradeRepo.getAll();
+        }
+        if (regime) {
+            trades = trades.filter(t => t.regime === regime);
+        }
+        return trades;
+    }
+}
+//# sourceMappingURL=risk.service.js.map

package/dist/services/risk.service.js.map

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
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package/dist/trading-core.js

@@ -16,6 +16,7 @@ import { InsightRepository } from './db/repositories/insight.repository.js';
 import { CalibrationRepository } from './db/repositories/calibration.repository.js';
 import { MemoryRepository } from './db/repositories/memory.repository.js';
 import { SessionRepository } from './db/repositories/session.repository.js';
+import { AlertRepository } from './db/repositories/alert.repository.js';
 // Graph
 import { WeightedGraph } from './graph/weighted-graph.js';
 // Synapses
@@ -28,6 +29,10 @@ import { SynapseService } from './services/synapse.service.js';
 import { AnalyticsService } from './services/analytics.service.js';
 import { InsightService } from './services/insight.service.js';
 import { MemoryService } from './services/memory.service.js';
+import { BacktestService } from './services/backtest.service.js';
+import { RiskService } from './services/risk.service.js';
+import { AlertService } from './services/alert.service.js';
+import { ImportService } from './services/import.service.js';
 // Engines
 import { LearningEngine } from './learning/learning-engine.js';
 import { ResearchEngine } from './research/research-engine.js';
@@ -82,6 +87,7 @@ export class TradingCore {
         const calibrationRepo = new CalibrationRepository(this.db);
         const memoryRepo = new MemoryRepository(this.db);
         const sessionRepo = new SessionRepository(this.db);
+        const alertRepo = new AlertRepository(this.db);
         // 6. Synapse Manager
         const synapseManager = new SynapseManager(synapseRepo, config.calibration);
         // 7. Weighted Graph (load from DB)
@@ -100,14 +106,20 @@ export class TradingCore {
         const tradeCount = () => tradeRepo.count();
         // 9. Services
         const memoryService = new MemoryService(memoryRepo, sessionRepo);
+        const tradeService = new TradeService(tradeRepo, signalRepo, chainRepo, synapseManager, graph, cal, config.learning);
+        const signalService = new SignalService(synapseManager, graph, cal, tradeCount, ruleRepo, tradeRepo);
         const services = {
-            trade: new TradeService(tradeRepo, signalRepo, chainRepo, synapseManager, graph, cal, config.learning),
-            signal: new SignalService(synapseManager, graph, cal, tradeCount, ruleRepo, tradeRepo),
+            trade: tradeService,
+            signal: signalService,
             strategy: new StrategyService(synapseManager, graph, cal, tradeCount),
             synapse: new SynapseService(synapseManager, graph),
             analytics: new AnalyticsService(tradeRepo, ruleRepo, chainRepo, insightRepo, synapseManager, graph, memoryRepo, sessionRepo),
             insight: new InsightService(insightRepo),
             memory: memoryService,
+            backtest: new BacktestService(tradeRepo, signalService, synapseManager),
+            risk: new RiskService(tradeRepo, signalService, synapseManager),
+            alert: new AlertService(alertRepo, signalService),
+            import: new ImportService(tradeService),
             ruleRepo,
             chainRepo,
             calRepo: calibrationRepo,

package/dist/trading-core.js.map

@@ -1 +1 @@
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package/dist/utils/events.d.ts

@@ -52,6 +52,11 @@ export type TradingBrainEvents = {
         sessionId: number;
         summary: string;
     };
+    'alert:triggered': {
+        alertId: number;
+        name: string;
+        conditionType: string;
+    };
 };
 export type TradingBrainEventName = keyof TradingBrainEvents;
 export declare class TypedEventBus extends GenericEventBus<TradingBrainEvents> {

package/dist/utils/events.js.map

@@ -1 +1 @@
-{"version":3,"file":"events.js","sourceRoot":"","sources":["../../src/utils/events.ts"],"names":[],"mappings":"AAAA,OAAO,EAAE,aAAa,IAAI,eAAe,EAAE,MAAM,qBAAqB,CAAC;AAoBvE,MAAM,OAAO,aAAc,SAAQ,eAAmC;CAAG;AAEzE,IAAI,WAAW,GAAyB,IAAI,CAAC;AAE7C,MAAM,UAAU,WAAW;IACzB,IAAI,CAAC,WAAW,EAAE,CAAC;QACjB,WAAW,GAAG,IAAI,aAAa,EAAE,CAAC;IACpC,CAAC;IACD,OAAO,WAAW,CAAC;AACrB,CAAC"}
+{"version":3,"file":"events.js","sourceRoot":"","sources":["../../src/utils/events.ts"],"names":[],"mappings":"AAAA,OAAO,EAAE,aAAa,IAAI,eAAe,EAAE,MAAM,qBAAqB,CAAC;AAqBvE,MAAM,OAAO,aAAc,SAAQ,eAAmC;CAAG;AAEzE,IAAI,WAAW,GAAyB,IAAI,CAAC;AAE7C,MAAM,UAAU,WAAW;IACzB,IAAI,CAAC,WAAW,EAAE,CAAC;QACjB,WAAW,GAAG,IAAI,aAAa,EAAE,CAAC;IACpC,CAAC;IACD,OAAO,WAAW,CAAC;AACrB,CAAC"}

package/package.json

@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
 {
   "name": "@timmeck/trading-brain",
-  "version": "2.0.2",
+  "version": "2.1.0",
   "description": "Adaptive trading intelligence system with Hebbian synapses, spreading activation, Wilson Score confidence, and adaptive calibration",
   "type": "module",
   "main": "dist/index.js",