npm - @timmeck/brain-core - Versions diffs - 2.36.89 → 2.36.91 - Mend

@timmeck/brain-core 2.36.89 → 2.36.91

This diff represents the content of publicly available package versions that have been released to one of the supported registries. The information contained in this diff is provided for informational purposes only and reflects changes between package versions as they appear in their respective public registries.

Files changed (17) hide show

package/command-center.html +8 -4
package/dist/hypothesis/engine.d.ts +22 -0
package/dist/hypothesis/engine.js +62 -0
package/dist/hypothesis/engine.js.map +1 -1
package/dist/prediction/prediction-engine.d.ts +15 -2
package/dist/prediction/prediction-engine.js +37 -5
package/dist/prediction/prediction-engine.js.map +1 -1
package/dist/prediction/tracker.d.ts +6 -0
package/dist/prediction/tracker.js +70 -7
package/dist/prediction/tracker.js.map +1 -1
package/dist/research/knowledge-distiller.d.ts +28 -0
package/dist/research/knowledge-distiller.js +74 -0
package/dist/research/knowledge-distiller.js.map +1 -1
package/dist/research/research-orchestrator.d.ts +1 -1
package/dist/research/research-orchestrator.js +34 -1
package/dist/research/research-orchestrator.js.map +1 -1
package/package.json +1 -1

package/command-center.html CHANGED Viewed

@@ -2682,12 +2682,16 @@ function renderProgress() {
   const pred = d.predictions;
   if (pred) {
     const accEl = document.getElementById('progPredAcc');
-    if (accEl) accEl.textContent = pred.accuracy_rate != null ? (pred.accuracy_rate * 100).toFixed(0) + '%' : '--';
+    if (accEl) accEl.textContent = Number.isFinite(pred.accuracy_rate) ? (pred.accuracy_rate * 100).toFixed(0) + '%' : '--';
     const domEl = document.getElementById('progPredDomains');
     if (domEl && pred.by_domain) {
-      domEl.innerHTML = Object.entries(pred.by_domain).map(([k, v]) =>
-        `<div style="display:flex;justify-content:space-between;margin:2px 0"><span style="color:var(--text-dim)">${k}</span><span style="color:var(--cyan)">${(v * 100).toFixed(0)}%</span></div>`
-      ).join('');
+      const domains = Array.isArray(pred.by_domain) ? pred.by_domain : Object.values(pred.by_domain);
+      domEl.innerHTML = domains.map(d => {
+        const name = d.domain || '?';
+        const acc = Number.isFinite(d.accuracy_rate) ? (d.accuracy_rate * 100).toFixed(0) + '%' : '--';
+        const col = (d.accuracy_rate ?? 0) >= 0.7 ? 'var(--green)' : (d.accuracy_rate ?? 0) >= 0.4 ? 'var(--cyan)' : 'var(--orange)';
+        return `<div style="display:flex;justify-content:space-between;margin:2px 0"><span style="color:var(--text-dim)">${name}</span><span style="font-size:11px;color:var(--text-dim)">${d.total ?? 0}</span><span style="color:${col};min-width:45px;text-align:right">${acc}</span></div>`;
+      }).join('');
     }
     const calEl = document.getElementById('progPredCalib');
     if (calEl && pred.calibration_offset != null) {

package/dist/hypothesis/engine.d.ts CHANGED Viewed

@@ -105,10 +105,32 @@ export declare class HypothesisEngine {
      * rejection. First test uses all data.
      */
     test(hypothesisId: number): HypothesisTestResult | null;
+    /**
+     * Force-evaluate stuck hypotheses. Called by testAll() after markStale().
+     *
+     * - testing > 48h → force one final test, if still testing → inconclusive
+     * - testing > 72h with weak evidence → auto-reject
+     *
+     * Prevents the "testing graveyard" where hypotheses sit forever.
+     */
+    forceEvaluateStuck(forceHours?: number, rejectHours?: number): {
+        evaluated: number;
+        rejected: number;
+    };
+    /**
+     * Get confirmed hypotheses grouped by type/domain with count >= minCount.
+     * Used for auto-strategy emergence.
+     */
+    getConfirmedByType(minCount?: number): Array<{
+        type: string;
+        count: number;
+        hypotheses: Hypothesis[];
+    }>;
     /**
      * Test all proposed/testing hypotheses.
      * Also re-tests confirmed hypotheses older than 24h (pattern drift detection).
      * Marks hypotheses >14 days in 'testing' without new evidence as 'stale'.
+     * Force-evaluates stuck hypotheses (>48h → inconclusive, >72h weak → reject).
      */
     testAll(): HypothesisTestResult[];
     /**

package/dist/hypothesis/engine.js CHANGED Viewed

@@ -170,14 +170,76 @@ export class HypothesisEngine {
             newStatus,
         };
     }
+    /**
+     * Force-evaluate stuck hypotheses. Called by testAll() after markStale().
+     *
+     * - testing > 48h → force one final test, if still testing → inconclusive
+     * - testing > 72h with weak evidence → auto-reject
+     *
+     * Prevents the "testing graveyard" where hypotheses sit forever.
+     */
+    forceEvaluateStuck(forceHours = 48, rejectHours = 72) {
+        let evaluated = 0;
+        let rejected = 0;
+        // 72h+ with weak evidence → auto-reject
+        const autoRejectResult = this.db.prepare(`
+      UPDATE hypotheses SET status = 'rejected', tested_at = datetime('now')
+      WHERE status = 'testing'
+        AND tested_at IS NOT NULL
+        AND tested_at < datetime('now', '-' || ? || ' hours')
+        AND (evidence_for + evidence_against) < ?
+    `).run(rejectHours, this.minEvidence);
+        rejected = autoRejectResult.changes;
+        // 72h+ with evidence but inconclusive p-value → auto-reject
+        const inconclusiveReject = this.db.prepare(`
+      UPDATE hypotheses SET status = 'rejected', tested_at = datetime('now')
+      WHERE status = 'testing'
+        AND tested_at IS NOT NULL
+        AND tested_at < datetime('now', '-' || ? || ' hours')
+        AND (evidence_for + evidence_against) >= ?
+        AND CAST(evidence_for AS REAL) / (evidence_for + evidence_against) < 0.5
+    `).run(rejectHours, this.minEvidence);
+        rejected += inconclusiveReject.changes;
+        // 48h+ still testing → mark inconclusive
+        const forceResult = this.db.prepare(`
+      UPDATE hypotheses SET status = 'inconclusive', tested_at = datetime('now')
+      WHERE status = 'testing'
+        AND tested_at IS NOT NULL
+        AND tested_at < datetime('now', '-' || ? || ' hours')
+    `).run(forceHours);
+        evaluated = forceResult.changes;
+        if (rejected > 0 || evaluated > 0) {
+            this.logger.info(`[HypothesisEngine] Force-evaluated stuck: ${rejected} rejected, ${evaluated} inconclusive`);
+        }
+        return { evaluated, rejected };
+    }
+    /**
+     * Get confirmed hypotheses grouped by type/domain with count >= minCount.
+     * Used for auto-strategy emergence.
+     */
+    getConfirmedByType(minCount = 3) {
+        const groups = this.db.prepare(`
+      SELECT type, COUNT(*) as count FROM hypotheses
+      WHERE status = 'confirmed'
+      GROUP BY type HAVING count >= ?
+    `).all(minCount);
+        return groups.map(g => ({
+            type: g.type,
+            count: g.count,
+            hypotheses: this.list('confirmed', 50).filter(h => h.type === g.type),
+        }));
+    }
     /**
      * Test all proposed/testing hypotheses.
      * Also re-tests confirmed hypotheses older than 24h (pattern drift detection).
      * Marks hypotheses >14 days in 'testing' without new evidence as 'stale'.
+     * Force-evaluates stuck hypotheses (>48h → inconclusive, >72h weak → reject).
      */
     testAll() {
         // Mark stale hypotheses first
         this.markStale();
+        // Force-evaluate stuck hypotheses (prevents testing graveyard)
+        this.forceEvaluateStuck();
         const hypotheses = this.db.prepare(`SELECT id FROM hypotheses WHERE status IN ('proposed', 'testing')
        UNION ALL
        SELECT id FROM hypotheses WHERE status = 'confirmed'

package/dist/hypothesis/engine.js.map CHANGED Viewed

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package/dist/prediction/prediction-engine.d.ts CHANGED Viewed

@@ -9,14 +9,27 @@ export declare class PredictionEngine {
     private tracker;
     private thoughtStream;
     private journal;
+    private knowledgeDistiller;
     private timer;
     private calibrationOffset;
+    private domainCalibrationOffsets;
     private log;
     constructor(db: Database.Database, config: PredictionEngineConfig);
     /** Set the ThoughtStream for consciousness integration. */
     setThoughtStream(stream: ThoughtStream): void;
     /** Set the Research Journal for logging notable predictions. */
     setJournal(journal: ResearchJournal): void;
+    /** Set KnowledgeDistiller for anti-pattern generation from wrong predictions. */
+    setKnowledgeDistiller(distiller: {
+        createAntiPatternFromPredictionFailure: (p: {
+            domain: string;
+            metric: string;
+            predicted_direction: string;
+            confidence: number;
+            error: number;
+            reasoning: string;
+        }) => unknown;
+    }): void;
     /** Update config values at runtime (for A/B testing / parameter sync). */
     updateConfig(partial: Partial<PredictionEngineConfig>): void;
     /** Get current config (read-only copy). */
@@ -59,9 +72,9 @@ export declare class PredictionEngine {
     getMetricHistory(metric: string, limit?: number): MetricDataPoint[];
     /** Periodic cycle: resolve + auto-predict. */
     private cycle;
-    /** Recalibrate confidence offset based on historical accuracy. */
+    /** Recalibrate confidence offset based on historical accuracy (global + per-domain). */
     private recalibrate;
-    /** Apply calibration to raw confidence. */
+    /** Apply domain-specific calibration to raw confidence. Falls back to global if domain has < 10 resolved. */
     private applyCalibration;
     /** Get all unique tracked metrics with their domains. */
     private getTrackedMetrics;

package/dist/prediction/prediction-engine.js CHANGED Viewed

@@ -61,8 +61,10 @@ export class PredictionEngine {
     tracker;
     thoughtStream = null;
     journal = null;
+    knowledgeDistiller = null;
     timer = null;
     calibrationOffset = 0;
+    domainCalibrationOffsets = new Map();
     log = getLogger();
     constructor(db, config) {
         this.db = db;
@@ -90,6 +92,10 @@ export class PredictionEngine {
     setJournal(journal) {
         this.journal = journal;
     }
+    /** Set KnowledgeDistiller for anti-pattern generation from wrong predictions. */
+    setKnowledgeDistiller(distiller) {
+        this.knowledgeDistiller = distiller;
+    }
     /** Update config values at runtime (for A/B testing / parameter sync). */
     updateConfig(partial) {
         if (partial.ewmaAlpha !== undefined)
@@ -151,8 +157,8 @@ export class PredictionEngine {
             return null;
         const data = history.map(h => h.value);
         const forecast = this.forecast(data, horizonMs);
-        // Apply calibration
-        const calibratedConfidence = this.applyCalibration(forecast.confidence);
+        // Apply domain-specific calibration
+        const calibratedConfidence = this.applyCalibration(forecast.confidence, input.domain);
         if (calibratedConfidence < this.config.minConfidence)
             return null;
         const now = Date.now();
@@ -242,6 +248,23 @@ export class PredictionEngine {
                 if (status === 'correct') {
                     this.db.prepare(`UPDATE prediction_state SET total_correct = total_correct + 1 WHERE id = 1`).run();
                 }
+                else if (status === 'wrong' && this.knowledgeDistiller) {
+                    // Auto-generate anti-pattern from wrong predictions
+                    const error = pred.predicted_value !== 0
+                        ? Math.abs(pred.predicted_value - row.avg_value) / Math.abs(pred.predicted_value)
+                        : Math.abs(row.avg_value);
+                    try {
+                        this.knowledgeDistiller.createAntiPatternFromPredictionFailure({
+                            domain: pred.domain,
+                            metric: pred.metric,
+                            predicted_direction: pred.predicted_direction,
+                            confidence: pred.confidence,
+                            error,
+                            reasoning: pred.reasoning,
+                        });
+                    }
+                    catch { /* best effort */ }
+                }
                 resolved++;
             }
         }
@@ -314,15 +337,24 @@ export class PredictionEngine {
             this.log.debug(`[prediction] Resolved ${resolved} predictions`);
         }
     }
-    /** Recalibrate confidence offset based on historical accuracy. */
+    /** Recalibrate confidence offset based on historical accuracy (global + per-domain). */
     recalibrate() {
         this.calibrationOffset = this.tracker.getCalibrationOffset();
+        this.domainCalibrationOffsets = this.tracker.getDomainCalibrationOffsets();
         this.db.prepare(`
       UPDATE prediction_state SET calibration_offset = ?, updated_at = datetime('now') WHERE id = 1
     `).run(this.calibrationOffset);
     }
-    /** Apply calibration to raw confidence. */
-    applyCalibration(rawConfidence) {
+    /** Apply domain-specific calibration to raw confidence. Falls back to global if domain has < 10 resolved. */
+    applyCalibration(rawConfidence, domain) {
+        if (domain) {
+            const domainBuckets = this.tracker.getCalibrationBucketsByDomain(domain);
+            const domainSamples = domainBuckets.reduce((sum, b) => sum + b.predicted_count, 0);
+            if (domainSamples >= 10) {
+                return calibrateConfidence(rawConfidence, domainBuckets);
+            }
+        }
+        // Fallback to global calibration
         const buckets = this.tracker.getCalibrationBuckets();
         return calibrateConfidence(rawConfidence, buckets);
     }

package/dist/prediction/prediction-engine.js.map CHANGED Viewed

	@@ -1 +1 @@
1	- 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package/dist/prediction/tracker.d.ts CHANGED Viewed

@@ -11,6 +11,12 @@ export declare class PredictionTracker {
     list(domain?: PredictionDomain, status?: PredictionStatus, limit?: number): Prediction[];
     /** Get accuracy statistics, optionally by domain. */
     getAccuracy(domain?: PredictionDomain): PredictionAccuracy[];
+    /** Get calibration buckets for a specific domain. */
+    getCalibrationBucketsByDomain(domain: PredictionDomain): CalibrationBucket[];
+    /** Get rolling accuracy for a specific domain (last N resolved predictions). */
+    getDomainRollingAccuracy(domain: PredictionDomain, limit?: number): number;
+    /** Get per-domain calibration offsets. */
+    getDomainCalibrationOffsets(): Map<string, number>;
     /** Get calibration offset — average (confidence - actual_accuracy) across buckets. */
     getCalibrationOffset(): number;
     /** Get calibration buckets for confidence adjustment. */

package/dist/prediction/tracker.js CHANGED Viewed

@@ -96,17 +96,17 @@ export class PredictionTracker {
         sql += ' GROUP BY domain';
         const rows = this.db.prepare(sql).all(...params);
         return rows.map(r => {
-            const total = r.total;
-            const correct = r.correct;
-            const wrong = r.wrong;
-            const partial = r.partial;
-            const expired = r.expired;
+            const total = r.total || 0;
+            const correct = r.correct || 0;
+            const wrong = r.wrong || 0;
+            const partial = r.partial || 0;
+            const expired = r.expired || 0;
             // Direction accuracy: correct + partial count as direction-correct
             const resolved = total - expired;
             const directionCorrect = correct + partial;
             // Calibration score: how close avg confidence is to actual accuracy
             const actualAccuracy = resolved > 0 ? correct / resolved : 0;
-            const avgConfidence = r.avg_confidence;
+            const avgConfidence = r.avg_confidence || 0;
             const calibrationScore = 1 - Math.abs(actualAccuracy - avgConfidence);
             return {
                 domain: r.domain,
@@ -116,12 +116,75 @@ export class PredictionTracker {
                 partial,
                 expired,
                 accuracy_rate: resolved > 0 ? (correct + partial * 0.5) / resolved : 0,
-                mean_absolute_error: r.mean_error ?? 0,
+                mean_absolute_error: r.mean_error || 0,
                 calibration_score: Math.max(0, calibrationScore),
                 direction_accuracy: resolved > 0 ? directionCorrect / resolved : 0,
             };
         });
     }
+    /** Get calibration buckets for a specific domain. */
+    getCalibrationBucketsByDomain(domain) {
+        const bucketRanges = [
+            [0.0, 0.2], [0.2, 0.4], [0.4, 0.6], [0.6, 0.8], [0.8, 1.01],
+        ];
+        const buckets = [];
+        for (const [start, end] of bucketRanges) {
+            const row = this.db.prepare(`
+        SELECT
+          COUNT(*) as total,
+          SUM(CASE WHEN status = 'correct' THEN 1 ELSE 0 END) as correct
+        FROM predictions
+        WHERE status != 'pending' AND domain = ?
+          AND confidence >= ? AND confidence < ?
+      `).get(domain, start, end);
+            const total = row.total ?? 0;
+            const correct = row.correct ?? 0;
+            buckets.push({
+                range_start: start,
+                range_end: end === 1.01 ? 1.0 : end,
+                predicted_count: total,
+                actual_accuracy: total > 0 ? correct / total : 0,
+            });
+        }
+        return buckets;
+    }
+    /** Get rolling accuracy for a specific domain (last N resolved predictions). */
+    getDomainRollingAccuracy(domain, limit = 50) {
+        const row = this.db.prepare(`
+      SELECT
+        COUNT(*) as total,
+        SUM(CASE WHEN status = 'correct' THEN 1 ELSE 0 END) as correct
+      FROM (
+        SELECT status FROM predictions
+        WHERE status IN ('correct', 'wrong', 'partial') AND domain = ?
+        ORDER BY resolved_at DESC LIMIT ?
+      )
+    `).get(domain, limit);
+        const total = row.total || 0;
+        const correct = row.correct || 0;
+        return total > 0 ? correct / total : 0;
+    }
+    /** Get per-domain calibration offsets. */
+    getDomainCalibrationOffsets() {
+        const domains = this.db.prepare(`
+      SELECT DISTINCT domain FROM predictions WHERE status != 'pending'
+    `).all();
+        const offsets = new Map();
+        for (const { domain } of domains) {
+            const buckets = this.getCalibrationBucketsByDomain(domain);
+            let totalOffset = 0;
+            let count = 0;
+            for (const b of buckets) {
+                if (b.predicted_count >= 3) {
+                    const midpoint = (b.range_start + b.range_end) / 2;
+                    totalOffset += midpoint - b.actual_accuracy;
+                    count++;
+                }
+            }
+            offsets.set(domain, count > 0 ? totalOffset / count : 0);
+        }
+        return offsets;
+    }
     /** Get calibration offset — average (confidence - actual_accuracy) across buckets. */
     getCalibrationOffset() {
         const buckets = this.getCalibrationBuckets();

package/dist/prediction/tracker.js.map CHANGED Viewed

	@@ -1 +1 @@
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1	+ 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package/dist/research/knowledge-distiller.d.ts CHANGED Viewed

@@ -93,7 +93,35 @@ export declare class KnowledgeDistiller {
     /** Remove a principle (e.g. when disproved). */
     removePrinciple(principleId: string): boolean;
     private upsertPrinciple;
+    /**
+     * Create an anti-pattern reactively from a rejected hypothesis.
+     * Called immediately on rejection, not waiting for periodic distillation.
+     */
+    createAntiPatternFromRejection(hypothesis: {
+        statement: string;
+        type: string;
+        evidence_for: number;
+        evidence_against: number;
+        confidence: number;
+    }): AntiPattern | null;
+    /**
+     * Create an anti-pattern from a wrong prediction.
+     * Called when PredictionEngine resolves a prediction as 'wrong'.
+     */
+    createAntiPatternFromPredictionFailure(prediction: {
+        domain: string;
+        metric: string;
+        predicted_direction: string;
+        confidence: number;
+        error: number;
+        reasoning: string;
+    }): AntiPattern | null;
     private upsertAntiPattern;
+    /**
+     * Create a strategy from a cluster of confirmed hypotheses.
+     * Called by orchestrator when 3+ hypotheses in same domain are confirmed.
+     */
+    createStrategyFromHypotheses(domain: string, statements: string[], evidenceCount: number): Strategy | null;
     private upsertStrategy;
     private hashString;
 }