@timmeck/brain-core 2.36.76 → 2.36.78

package/dist/hypothesis/engine.d.ts

@@ -75,10 +75,18 @@ export declare class HypothesisEngine {
     generate(): Hypothesis[];
     /**
      * Test a hypothesis against available data.
-     * Returns the test result with updated status.
+     *
+     * Anti-confirmation-bias for re-tests: When a hypothesis has been tested before
+     * (tested_at exists), only uses data collected AFTER the last test. This ensures
+     * confirmed hypotheses must prove themselves on NEW data — pattern drift causes
+     * rejection. First test uses all data.
      */
     test(hypothesisId: number): HypothesisTestResult | null;
-    /** Test all proposed/testing hypotheses. */
+    /**
+     * Test all proposed/testing hypotheses.
+     * Also re-tests confirmed hypotheses older than 24h (pattern drift detection).
+     * This ensures previously confirmed hypotheses are rejected if patterns change.
+     */
     testAll(): HypothesisTestResult[];
     /** Get a hypothesis by ID. */
     get(id: number): Hypothesis | null;
@@ -145,6 +153,10 @@ export declare class HypothesisEngine {
     private testTemporalHypothesis;
     private testCorrelationHypothesis;
     private testThresholdHypothesis;
+    /**
+     * Test frequency/periodicity hypotheses.
+     * Checks if events occur with a regular interval (period P ± tolerance).
+     */
     private testFrequencyHypothesis;
     private getObservationTypes;
     private getObservationTimeRange;

package/dist/hypothesis/engine.js

@@ -101,7 +101,11 @@ export class HypothesisEngine {
     }
     /**
      * Test a hypothesis against available data.
-     * Returns the test result with updated status.
+     *
+     * Anti-confirmation-bias for re-tests: When a hypothesis has been tested before
+     * (tested_at exists), only uses data collected AFTER the last test. This ensures
+     * confirmed hypotheses must prove themselves on NEW data — pattern drift causes
+     * rejection. First test uses all data.
      */
     test(hypothesisId) {
         const hyp = this.get(hypothesisId);
@@ -110,19 +114,25 @@ export class HypothesisEngine {
         const condition = typeof hyp.condition === 'string'
             ? JSON.parse(hyp.condition)
             : hyp.condition;
+        // Temporal holdout on re-tests: only use observations after last test.
+        // First test (tested_at is null) uses all data (-1 includes timestamp=0).
+        // Re-tests must prove the pattern still holds on new data.
+        const holdoutTimestamp = hyp.tested_at
+            ? new Date(hyp.tested_at).getTime()
+            : -1;
         let result;
         switch (condition.type) {
             case 'temporal':
-                result = this.testTemporalHypothesis(hyp, condition);
+                result = this.testTemporalHypothesis(hyp, condition, holdoutTimestamp);
                 break;
             case 'correlation':
-                result = this.testCorrelationHypothesis(hyp, condition);
+                result = this.testCorrelationHypothesis(hyp, condition, holdoutTimestamp);
                 break;
             case 'threshold':
-                result = this.testThresholdHypothesis(hyp, condition);
+                result = this.testThresholdHypothesis(hyp, condition, holdoutTimestamp);
                 break;
             case 'frequency':
-                result = this.testFrequencyHypothesis(hyp, condition);
+                result = this.testFrequencyHypothesis(hyp, condition, holdoutTimestamp);
                 break;
             default:
                 return null;
@@ -160,9 +170,16 @@ export class HypothesisEngine {
             newStatus,
         };
     }
-    /** Test all proposed/testing hypotheses. */
+    /**
+     * Test all proposed/testing hypotheses.
+     * Also re-tests confirmed hypotheses older than 24h (pattern drift detection).
+     * This ensures previously confirmed hypotheses are rejected if patterns change.
+     */
     testAll() {
-        const hypotheses = this.db.prepare(`SELECT id FROM hypotheses WHERE status IN ('proposed', 'testing')`).all();
+        const hypotheses = this.db.prepare(`SELECT id FROM hypotheses WHERE status IN ('proposed', 'testing')
+       UNION ALL
+       SELECT id FROM hypotheses WHERE status = 'confirmed'
+         AND (tested_at IS NULL OR tested_at < datetime('now', '-24 hours'))`).all();
         return hypotheses
             .map(h => this.test(h.id))
             .filter((r) => r !== null);
@@ -493,24 +510,25 @@ export class HypothesisEngine {
             for (let j = i + 1; j < types.length; j++) {
                 const typeA = types[i];
                 const typeB = types[j];
-                // Simple correlation: count co-occurrences within 1 minute windows
+                // Co-occurrence: count distinct A observations that have ≥1 nearby B observation
                 const coOccurrences = this.db.prepare(`
-          SELECT COUNT(*) as count FROM observations a
+          SELECT COUNT(DISTINCT a.id) as count FROM observations a
           INNER JOIN observations b ON b.type = ? AND ABS(a.timestamp - b.timestamp) < 60000
           WHERE a.type = ?
         `).get(typeB, typeA).count;
                 const countA = this.db.prepare('SELECT COUNT(*) as c FROM observations WHERE type = ?').get(typeA).c;
                 if (countA > 0 && coOccurrences / countA > 0.3) {
+                    const rate = Math.min(coOccurrences / countA, 1); // bounded 0-1
                     const existing = this.db.prepare(`SELECT id FROM hypotheses WHERE type = 'correlation' AND variables LIKE ? AND variables LIKE ? AND status != 'rejected'`).get(`%"${typeA}"%`, `%"${typeB}"%`);
                     if (!existing) {
                         results.push(this.propose({
-                            statement: `"${typeA}" and "${typeB}" events tend to occur together (co-occurrence rate: ${(coOccurrences / countA * 100).toFixed(0)}%)`,
+                            statement: `"${typeA}" and "${typeB}" events tend to occur together (co-occurrence rate: ${(rate * 100).toFixed(0)}%)`,
                             type: 'correlation',
                             source: 'hypothesis-engine',
                             variables: [typeA, typeB],
                             condition: {
                                 type: 'correlation',
-                                params: { typeA, typeB, windowMs: 60_000, observedRate: coOccurrences / countA },
+                                params: { typeA, typeB, windowMs: 60_000, observedRate: rate },
                             },
                         }));
                     }
@@ -553,10 +571,11 @@ export class HypothesisEngine {
         return results;
     }
     // ── Hypothesis Testing ────────────────────────────
-    testTemporalHypothesis(hyp, condition) {
+    testTemporalHypothesis(hyp, condition, holdoutTimestamp = 0) {
         const { eventType, peakHour } = condition.params;
-        const total = this.db.prepare('SELECT COUNT(*) as c FROM observations WHERE type = ?').get(eventType).c;
-        const inPeak = this.db.prepare('SELECT COUNT(*) as c FROM observations WHERE type = ? AND (timestamp / 3600000) % 24 = ?').get(eventType, peakHour).c;
+        // Only test on data after holdout (anti-confirmation-bias)
+        const total = this.db.prepare('SELECT COUNT(*) as c FROM observations WHERE type = ? AND timestamp > ?').get(eventType, holdoutTimestamp).c;
+        const inPeak = this.db.prepare('SELECT COUNT(*) as c FROM observations WHERE type = ? AND (timestamp / 3600000) % 24 = ? AND timestamp > ?').get(eventType, peakHour, holdoutTimestamp).c;
         const expected = total / 24;
         const evidenceFor = inPeak;
         const evidenceAgainst = Math.max(0, Math.round(expected) - inPeak);
@@ -565,20 +584,21 @@ export class HypothesisEngine {
         const pValue = Math.exp(-chiSq / 2); // rough p-value approximation
         return { evidenceFor, evidenceAgainst, pValue };
     }
-    testCorrelationHypothesis(hyp, condition) {
+    testCorrelationHypothesis(hyp, condition, holdoutTimestamp = 0) {
         const { typeA, typeB, windowMs } = condition.params;
+        // Only test on data after holdout (anti-confirmation-bias)
         const coOccurrences = this.db.prepare(`
-      SELECT COUNT(*) as count FROM observations a
+      SELECT COUNT(DISTINCT a.id) as count FROM observations a
       INNER JOIN observations b ON b.type = ? AND ABS(a.timestamp - b.timestamp) < ?
-      WHERE a.type = ?
-    `).get(typeB, windowMs, typeA).count;
-        const countA = this.db.prepare('SELECT COUNT(*) as c FROM observations WHERE type = ?').get(typeA).c;
-        const countB = this.db.prepare('SELECT COUNT(*) as c FROM observations WHERE type = ?').get(typeB).c;
+      WHERE a.type = ? AND a.timestamp > ?
+    `).get(typeB, windowMs, typeA, holdoutTimestamp).count;
+        const countA = this.db.prepare('SELECT COUNT(*) as c FROM observations WHERE type = ? AND timestamp > ?').get(typeA, holdoutTimestamp).c;
+        const countB = this.db.prepare('SELECT COUNT(*) as c FROM observations WHERE type = ? AND timestamp > ?').get(typeB, holdoutTimestamp).c;
         if (countA === 0 || countB === 0)
             return { evidenceFor: 0, evidenceAgainst: 0, pValue: 1 };
-        const observedRate = coOccurrences / countA;
+        const observedRate = Math.min(coOccurrences / countA, 1); // bounded 0-1
         // Expected rate under independence
-        const timeRange = this.getObservationTimeRange();
+        const timeRange = this.getObservationTimeRange(holdoutTimestamp);
         const expectedRate = timeRange > 0 ? Math.min(1, (countB / timeRange) * windowMs * 2) : 0;
         const evidenceFor = coOccurrences;
         const evidenceAgainst = Math.max(0, countA - coOccurrences);
@@ -589,10 +609,11 @@ export class HypothesisEngine {
         const pValue = Math.exp(-0.5 * z * z); // rough p-value
         return { evidenceFor, evidenceAgainst, pValue: Math.min(1, pValue) };
     }
-    testThresholdHypothesis(hyp, condition) {
+    testThresholdHypothesis(hyp, condition, holdoutTimestamp = 0) {
         const { eventType, threshold } = condition.params;
-        const above = this.db.prepare('SELECT COUNT(*) as c FROM observations WHERE type = ? AND value > ?').get(eventType, threshold).c;
-        const total = this.db.prepare('SELECT COUNT(*) as c FROM observations WHERE type = ?').get(eventType).c;
+        // Only test on data after holdout (anti-confirmation-bias)
+        const above = this.db.prepare('SELECT COUNT(*) as c FROM observations WHERE type = ? AND value > ? AND timestamp > ?').get(eventType, threshold, holdoutTimestamp).c;
+        const total = this.db.prepare('SELECT COUNT(*) as c FROM observations WHERE type = ? AND timestamp > ?').get(eventType, holdoutTimestamp).c;
         const below = total - above;
         // Test: is the proportion above threshold significantly different from random?
         const proportion = total > 0 ? above / total : 0;
@@ -605,16 +626,49 @@ export class HypothesisEngine {
         const pValue = Math.exp(-0.5 * z * z);
         return { evidenceFor: above, evidenceAgainst: below, pValue: Math.min(1, pValue) };
     }
-    testFrequencyHypothesis(_hyp, _condition) {
-        // Placeholder for frequency/periodicity testing
-        return { evidenceFor: 0, evidenceAgainst: 0, pValue: 1 };
+    /**
+     * Test frequency/periodicity hypotheses.
+     * Checks if events occur with a regular interval (period P ± tolerance).
+     */
+    testFrequencyHypothesis(hyp, condition, holdoutTimestamp = 0) {
+        const { eventType, periodMs, toleranceMs } = condition.params;
+        if (!periodMs || periodMs <= 0)
+            return { evidenceFor: 0, evidenceAgainst: 0, pValue: 1 };
+        const tolerance = toleranceMs ?? periodMs * 0.2; // 20% tolerance by default
+        // Get timestamps of events after holdout
+        const timestamps = this.db.prepare('SELECT timestamp FROM observations WHERE type = ? AND timestamp > ? ORDER BY timestamp').all(eventType, holdoutTimestamp).map(r => r.timestamp);
+        if (timestamps.length < 3)
+            return { evidenceFor: 0, evidenceAgainst: 0, pValue: 1 };
+        // Count how many consecutive intervals match the expected period
+        let matchingIntervals = 0;
+        let totalIntervals = 0;
+        for (let i = 1; i < timestamps.length; i++) {
+            const interval = timestamps[i] - timestamps[i - 1];
+            totalIntervals++;
+            if (Math.abs(interval - periodMs) <= tolerance) {
+                matchingIntervals++;
+            }
+        }
+        if (totalIntervals === 0)
+            return { evidenceFor: 0, evidenceAgainst: 0, pValue: 1 };
+        const matchRate = matchingIntervals / totalIntervals;
+        // Under random timing, expected match rate depends on tolerance/periodMs
+        const expectedRate = Math.min(1, (2 * tolerance) / periodMs);
+        const evidenceFor = matchingIntervals;
+        const evidenceAgainst = totalIntervals - matchingIntervals;
+        // Z-test for proportion
+        if (expectedRate <= 0 || expectedRate >= 1)
+            return { evidenceFor, evidenceAgainst, pValue: 1 };
+        const z = (matchRate - expectedRate) / Math.sqrt(expectedRate * (1 - expectedRate) / totalIntervals);
+        const pValue = Math.exp(-0.5 * z * z);
+        return { evidenceFor, evidenceAgainst, pValue: Math.min(1, pValue) };
     }
     // ── Helpers ───────────────────────────────────────
     getObservationTypes() {
         return this.db.prepare('SELECT DISTINCT type FROM observations').all().map(r => r.type);
     }
-    getObservationTimeRange() {
-        const row = this.db.prepare('SELECT MIN(timestamp) as min_ts, MAX(timestamp) as max_ts FROM observations').get();
+    getObservationTimeRange(sinceTimestamp = 0) {
+        const row = this.db.prepare('SELECT MIN(timestamp) as min_ts, MAX(timestamp) as max_ts FROM observations WHERE timestamp > ?').get(sinceTimestamp);
         return (row.max_ts ?? 0) - (row.min_ts ?? 0);
     }
 }

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package/dist/prediction/prediction-engine.js

@@ -279,6 +279,7 @@ export class PredictionEngine {
         const totalResolved = accuracy.reduce((sum, a) => sum + a.total - a.expired, 0);
         return {
             total_predictions: totalPredictions,
+            correct: totalCorrect,
             pending,
             resolved,
             accuracy_rate: totalResolved > 0 ? totalCorrect / totalResolved : 0,

package/dist/prediction/prediction-engine.js.map

@@ -1 +1 @@
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package/dist/prediction/types.d.ts

@@ -51,6 +51,7 @@ export interface PredictionAccuracy {
 }
 export interface PredictionSummary {
     total_predictions: number;
+    correct: number;
     pending: number;
     resolved: number;
     accuracy_rate: number;

package/package.json

@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
 {
   "name": "@timmeck/brain-core",
-  "version": "2.36.76",
+  "version": "2.36.78",
   "description": "Shared core infrastructure for the Brain ecosystem — IPC, MCP, CLI, DB connection, and utilities",
   "type": "module",
   "main": "dist/index.js",