npm - @timmeck/brain-core - Versions diffs - 2.36.75 → 2.36.77 - Mend

@timmeck/brain-core 2.36.75 → 2.36.77

This diff represents the content of publicly available package versions that have been released to one of the supported registries. The information contained in this diff is provided for informational purposes only and reflects changes between package versions as they appear in their respective public registries.

Files changed (13) hide show

package/dist/governance/engine-token-budget.d.ts +1 -0
package/dist/governance/engine-token-budget.js +6 -1
package/dist/governance/engine-token-budget.js.map +1 -1
package/dist/hypothesis/engine.d.ts +14 -2
package/dist/hypothesis/engine.js +84 -30
package/dist/hypothesis/engine.js.map +1 -1
package/dist/prediction/prediction-engine.js +1 -0
package/dist/prediction/prediction-engine.js.map +1 -1
package/dist/prediction/types.d.ts +1 -0
package/dist/research/cycle-outcome-tracker.d.ts +34 -14
package/dist/research/cycle-outcome-tracker.js +34 -14
package/dist/research/cycle-outcome-tracker.js.map +1 -1
package/package.json +1 -1

package/dist/governance/engine-token-budget.d.ts CHANGED Viewed

@@ -56,6 +56,7 @@ export declare class EngineTokenBudgetTracker {
     /**
      * Release a reservation after the LLM call completes.
      * Call this regardless of success/failure to clean up the reservation.
+     * Invalidates the usage cache for the engine so next check reads fresh DB data.
      */
     releaseReservation(reservationId: string): void;
     /** Get total reserved (in-flight) tokens for an engine. */

package/dist/governance/engine-token-budget.js CHANGED Viewed

@@ -127,9 +127,14 @@ export class EngineTokenBudgetTracker {
     /**
      * Release a reservation after the LLM call completes.
      * Call this regardless of success/failure to clean up the reservation.
+     * Invalidates the usage cache for the engine so next check reads fresh DB data.
      */
     releaseReservation(reservationId) {
-        this.reservations.delete(reservationId);
+        const res = this.reservations.get(reservationId);
+        if (res) {
+            this.cache.delete(res.engineId); // invalidate cache — DB may have new usage
+            this.reservations.delete(reservationId);
+        }
     }
     /** Get total reserved (in-flight) tokens for an engine. */
     getReservedTokens(engineId) {

package/dist/governance/engine-token-budget.js.map CHANGED Viewed

	@@ -1 +1 @@
1	- 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1	+ {"version":3,"file":"engine-token-budget.js","sourceRoot":"","sources":["../../src/governance/engine-token-budget.ts"],"names":[],"mappings":"AAOA,OAAO,EAAE,SAAS,EAAE,MAAM,oBAAoB,CAAC;AA2B/C,2DAA2D;AAE3D,MAAM,CAAC,MAAM,sBAAsB,GAA6D;IAC9F,EAAE,MAAM,EAAE,mBAAmB,EAAE,MAAM,EAAE,IAAI,EAAE,KAAK,EAAE,KAAK,EAAE;IAC3D,EAAE,MAAM,EAAE,eAAe,EAAE,MAAM,EAAE,IAAI,EAAE,KAAK,EAAE,KAAK,EAAE;IACvD,EAAE,MAAM,EAAE,iBAAiB,EAAE,MAAM,EAAE,IAAI,EAAE,KAAK,EAAE,KAAK,EAAE;IACzD,EAAE,MAAM,EAAE,kBAAkB,EAAE,MAAM,EAAE,IAAI,EAAE,KAAK,EAAE,KAAK,EAAE;IAC1D,EAAE,MAAM,EAAE,kBAAkB,EAAE,MAAM,EAAE,IAAI,EAAE,KAAK,EAAE,KAAK,EAAE;IAC1D,EAAE,MAAM,EAAE,gBAAgB,EAAE,MAAM,EAAE,IAAI,EAAE,KAAK,EAAE,KAAK,EAAE;IACxD,EAAE,MAAM,EAAE,gBAAgB,EAAE,MAAM,EAAE,KAAK,EAAE,KAAK,EAAE,KAAK,EAAE;IACzD,EAAE,MAAM,EAAE,eAAe,EAAE,MAAM,EAAE,IAAI,EAAE,KAAK,EAAE,KAAK,EAAE;IACvD,EAAE,MAAM,EAAE,YAAY,EAAE,MAAM,EAAE,IAAI,EAAE,KAAK,EAAE,KAAK,EAAE;IACpD,EAAE,MAAM,EAAE,qBAAqB,EAAE,MAAM,EAAE,IAAI,EAAE,KAAK,EAAE,KAAK,EAAE;IAC7D,EAAE,MAAM,EAAE,kBAAkB,EAAE,MAAM,EAAE,IAAI,EAAE,KAAK,EAAE,KAAK,EAAE;IAC1D,EAAE,MAAM,EAAE,YAAY,EAAE,MAAM,EAAE,IAAI,EAAE,KAAK,EAAE,KAAK,EAAE;IACpD,EAAE,MAAM,EAAE,kBAAkB,EAAE,MAAM,EAAE,IAAI,EAAE,KAAK,EAAE,KAAK,EAAE;IAC1D,EAAE,MAAM,EAAE,iBAAiB,EAAE,MAAM,EAAE,IAAI,EAAE,KAAK,EAAE,KAAK,EAAE;IACzD,EAAE,MAAM,EAAE,uBAAuB,EAAE,MAAM,EAAE,IAAI,EAAE,KAAK,EAAE,KAAK,EAAE;IAC/D,EAAE,MAAM,EAAE,mBAAmB,EAAE,MAAM,EAAE,IAAI,EAAE,KAAK,EAAE,KAAK,EAAE;CAC5D,CAAC;AAEF,2DAA2D;AAE3D,MAAM,OAAO,wBAAwB;IAC3B,EAAE,CAAoB;IACtB,iBAAiB,CAA2B;IAC5C,GAAG,GAAG,SAAS,EAAE,CAAC;IAE1B,gEAAgE;IACxD,KAAK,GAAG,IAAI,GAAG,EAAgE,CAAC;IACvE,UAAU,GAAG,MAAM,CAAC,CAAC,WAAW;IAEjD,8DAA8D;IACtD,YAAY,GAAG,IAAI,GAAG,EAA6B,CAAC;IACpD,kBAAkB,GAAG,CAAC,CAAC;IAE/B,YAAY,EAAqB,EAAE,oBAA8C,IAAI;QACnF,IAAI,CAAC,EAAE,GAAG,EAAE,CAAC;QACb,IAAI,CAAC,iBAAiB,GAAG,iBAAiB,CAAC;IAC7C,CAAC;IAED,mEAAmE;IACnE,gBAAgB;QACd,IAAI,CAAC,IAAI,CAAC,iBAAiB;YAAE,OAAO;QAEpC,MAAM,MAAM,GAAG,sBAAsB,CAAC,OAAO,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,EAAE,CAAC;YACjD;gBACE,MAAM,EAAE,CAAC,CAAC,MAAM;gBAChB,IAAI,EAAE,qBAAqB;gBAC3B,KAAK,EAAE,CAAC,CAAC,MAAM;gBACf,GAAG,EAAE,CAAC;gBACN,GAAG,EAAE,OAAO;gBACZ,WAAW,EAAE,2BAA2B,CAAC,CAAC,MAAM,EAAE;gBAClD,QAAQ,EAAE,cAAc;aACzB;YACD;gBACE,MAAM,EAAE,CAAC,CAAC,MAAM;gBAChB,IAAI,EAAE,oBAAoB;gBAC1B,KAAK,EAAE,CAAC,CAAC,KAAK;gBACd,GAAG,EAAE,CAAC;gBACN,GAAG,EAAE,SAAS;gBACd,WAAW,EAAE,0BAA0B,CAAC,CAAC,MAAM,EAAE;gBACjD,QAAQ,EAAE,cAAc;aACzB;SACF,CAAC,CAAC;QAEH,IAAI,CAAC,iBAAiB,CAAC,WAAW,CAAC,MAAM,CAAC,CAAC;QAC3C,IAAI,CAAC,GAAG,CAAC,KAAK,CAAC,4BAA4B,MAAM,CAAC,MAAM,0BAA0B,sBAAsB,CAAC,MAAM,UAAU,CAAC,CAAC;IAC7H,CAAC;IAED,qDAAqD;IACrD,WAAW,CAAC,QAAgB;QAC1B,MAAM,MAAM,GAAG,IAAI,CAAC,SAAS,CAAC,QAAQ,CAAC,CAAC;QACxC,IAAI,CAAC,MAAM,EAAE,CAAC;YACZ,+BAA+B;YAC/B,OAAO,EAAE,OAAO,EAAE,IAAI,EAAE,CAAC;QAC3B,CAAC;QAED,MAAM,KAAK,GAAG,IAAI,CAAC,QAAQ,CAAC,QAAQ,CAAC,CAAC;QAEtC,IAAI,MAAM,CAAC,KAAK,GAAG,CAAC,IAAI,KAAK,CAAC,KAAK,IAAI,MAAM,CAAC,KAAK,EAAE,CAAC;YACpD,OAAO,EAAE,OAAO,EAAE,KAAK,EAAE,MAAM,EAAE,iCAAiC,KAAK,CAAC,KAAK,IAAI,MAAM,CAAC,KAAK,GAAG,EAAE,CAAC;QACrG,CAAC;QAED,IAAI,MAAM,CAAC,MAAM,GAAG,CAAC,IAAI,KAAK,CAAC,MAAM,IAAI,MAAM,CAAC,MAAM,EAAE,CAAC;YACvD,OAAO,EAAE,OAAO,EAAE,KAAK,EAAE,MAAM,EAAE,kCAAkC,KAAK,CAAC,MAAM,IAAI,MAAM,CAAC,MAAM,GAAG,EAAE,CAAC;QACxG,CAAC;QAED,OAAO,EAAE,OAAO,EAAE,IAAI,EAAE,CAAC;IAC3B,CAAC;IAED,2DAA2D;IAC3D,SAAS;QACP,MAAM,OAAO,GAAG,sBAAsB,CAAC,GAAG,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,EAAE,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,MAAM,CAAC,CAAC;QAC1D,OAAO,OAAO,CAAC,GAAG,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,EAAE,CAAC,IAAI,CAAC,eAAe,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,MAAM,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,EAA8B,EAAE,CAAC,CAAC,KAAK,IAAI,CAAC,CAAC;IACzG,CAAC;IAED,yDAAyD;IACzD,eAAe,CAAC,QAAgB;QAC9B,MAAM,MAAM,GAAG,IAAI,CAAC,SAAS,CAAC,QAAQ,CAAC,CAAC;QACxC,IAAI,CAAC,MAAM;YAAE,OAAO,IAAI,CAAC;QAEzB,MAAM,KAAK,GAAG,IAAI,CAAC,QAAQ,CAAC,QAAQ,CAAC,CAAC;QACtC,MAAM,aAAa,GAAG,MAAM,CAAC,MAAM,GAAG,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,KAAK,CAAC,MAAM,GAAG,MAAM,CAAC,MAAM,CAAC,GAAG,GAAG,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC;QACnF,MAAM,YAAY,GAAG,MAAM,CAAC,KAAK,GAAG,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,KAAK,CAAC,KAAK,GAAG,MAAM,CAAC,KAAK,CAAC,GAAG,GAAG,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC;QAC/E,MAAM,UAAU,GAAG,IAAI,CAAC,GAAG,CAAC,aAAa,EAAE,YAAY,CAAC,CAAC;QAEzD,OAAO;YACL,QAAQ;YACR,WAAW,EAAE,MAAM,CAAC,MAAM;YAC1B,UAAU,EAAE,MAAM,CAAC,KAAK;YACxB,UAAU,EAAE,KAAK,CAAC,MAAM;YACxB,SAAS,EAAE,KAAK,CAAC,KAAK;YACtB,aAAa;YACb,YAAY;YACZ,MAAM,EAAE,UAAU,IAAI,GAAG,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,WAAW,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,UAAU,IAAI,EAAE,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,SAAS,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC,IAAI;SAC9E,CAAC;IACJ,CAAC;IAED;;;;OAIG;IACH,aAAa,CAAC,QAAgB,EAAE,eAAuB;QACrD,MAAM,MAAM,GAAG,IAAI,CAAC,SAAS,CAAC,QAAQ,CAAC,CAAC;QACxC,IAAI,CAAC,MAAM;YAAE,OAAO,OAAO,EAAE,IAAI,CAAC,kBAAkB,EAAE,CAAC,CAAC,sCAAsC;QAE9F,MAAM,KAAK,GAAG,IAAI,CAAC,QAAQ,CAAC,QAAQ,CAAC,CAAC;QACtC,MAAM,QAAQ,GAAG,IAAI,CAAC,iBAAiB,CAAC,QAAQ,CAAC,CAAC;QAElD,MAAM,eAAe,GAAG,KAAK,CAAC,MAAM,GAAG,QAAQ,CAAC;QAChD,MAAM,cAAc,GAAG,KAAK,CAAC,KAAK,GAAG,QAAQ,CAAC;QAE9C,IAAI,MAAM,CAAC,KAAK,GAAG,CAAC,IAAI,CAAC,cAAc,GAAG,eAAe,CAAC,GAAG,MAAM,CAAC,KAAK,EAAE,CAAC;YAC1E,OAAO,IAAI,CAAC;QACd,CAAC;QACD,IAAI,MAAM,CAAC,MAAM,GAAG,CAAC,IAAI,CAAC,eAAe,GAAG,eAAe,CAAC,GAAG,MAAM,CAAC,MAAM,EAAE,CAAC;YAC7E,OAAO,IAAI,CAAC;QACd,CAAC;QAED,MAAM,EAAE,GAAG,OAAO,EAAE,IAAI,CAAC,k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package/dist/hypothesis/engine.d.ts CHANGED Viewed

@@ -75,10 +75,18 @@ export declare class HypothesisEngine {
     generate(): Hypothesis[];
     /**
      * Test a hypothesis against available data.
-     * Returns the test result with updated status.
+     *
+     * Anti-confirmation-bias for re-tests: When a hypothesis has been tested before
+     * (tested_at exists), only uses data collected AFTER the last test. This ensures
+     * confirmed hypotheses must prove themselves on NEW data — pattern drift causes
+     * rejection. First test uses all data.
      */
     test(hypothesisId: number): HypothesisTestResult | null;
-    /** Test all proposed/testing hypotheses. */
+    /**
+     * Test all proposed/testing hypotheses.
+     * Also re-tests confirmed hypotheses older than 24h (pattern drift detection).
+     * This ensures previously confirmed hypotheses are rejected if patterns change.
+     */
     testAll(): HypothesisTestResult[];
     /** Get a hypothesis by ID. */
     get(id: number): Hypothesis | null;
@@ -145,6 +153,10 @@ export declare class HypothesisEngine {
     private testTemporalHypothesis;
     private testCorrelationHypothesis;
     private testThresholdHypothesis;
+    /**
+     * Test frequency/periodicity hypotheses.
+     * Checks if events occur with a regular interval (period P ± tolerance).
+     */
     private testFrequencyHypothesis;
     private getObservationTypes;
     private getObservationTimeRange;

package/dist/hypothesis/engine.js CHANGED Viewed

@@ -101,7 +101,11 @@ export class HypothesisEngine {
     }
     /**
      * Test a hypothesis against available data.
-     * Returns the test result with updated status.
+     *
+     * Anti-confirmation-bias for re-tests: When a hypothesis has been tested before
+     * (tested_at exists), only uses data collected AFTER the last test. This ensures
+     * confirmed hypotheses must prove themselves on NEW data — pattern drift causes
+     * rejection. First test uses all data.
      */
     test(hypothesisId) {
         const hyp = this.get(hypothesisId);
@@ -110,19 +114,25 @@ export class HypothesisEngine {
         const condition = typeof hyp.condition === 'string'
             ? JSON.parse(hyp.condition)
             : hyp.condition;
+        // Temporal holdout on re-tests: only use observations after last test.
+        // First test (tested_at is null) uses all data (-1 includes timestamp=0).
+        // Re-tests must prove the pattern still holds on new data.
+        const holdoutTimestamp = hyp.tested_at
+            ? new Date(hyp.tested_at).getTime()
+            : -1;
         let result;
         switch (condition.type) {
             case 'temporal':
-                result = this.testTemporalHypothesis(hyp, condition);
+                result = this.testTemporalHypothesis(hyp, condition, holdoutTimestamp);
                 break;
             case 'correlation':
-                result = this.testCorrelationHypothesis(hyp, condition);
+                result = this.testCorrelationHypothesis(hyp, condition, holdoutTimestamp);
                 break;
             case 'threshold':
-                result = this.testThresholdHypothesis(hyp, condition);
+                result = this.testThresholdHypothesis(hyp, condition, holdoutTimestamp);
                 break;
             case 'frequency':
-                result = this.testFrequencyHypothesis(hyp, condition);
+                result = this.testFrequencyHypothesis(hyp, condition, holdoutTimestamp);
                 break;
             default:
                 return null;
@@ -160,9 +170,16 @@ export class HypothesisEngine {
             newStatus,
         };
     }
-    /** Test all proposed/testing hypotheses. */
+    /**
+     * Test all proposed/testing hypotheses.
+     * Also re-tests confirmed hypotheses older than 24h (pattern drift detection).
+     * This ensures previously confirmed hypotheses are rejected if patterns change.
+     */
     testAll() {
-        const hypotheses = this.db.prepare(`SELECT id FROM hypotheses WHERE status IN ('proposed', 'testing')`).all();
+        const hypotheses = this.db.prepare(`SELECT id FROM hypotheses WHERE status IN ('proposed', 'testing')
+       UNION ALL
+       SELECT id FROM hypotheses WHERE status = 'confirmed'
+         AND (tested_at IS NULL OR tested_at < datetime('now', '-24 hours'))`).all();
         return hypotheses
             .map(h => this.test(h.id))
             .filter((r) => r !== null);
@@ -493,24 +510,25 @@ export class HypothesisEngine {
             for (let j = i + 1; j < types.length; j++) {
                 const typeA = types[i];
                 const typeB = types[j];
-                // Simple correlation: count co-occurrences within 1 minute windows
+                // Co-occurrence: count distinct A observations that have ≥1 nearby B observation
                 const coOccurrences = this.db.prepare(`
-          SELECT COUNT(*) as count FROM observations a
+          SELECT COUNT(DISTINCT a.id) as count FROM observations a
           INNER JOIN observations b ON b.type = ? AND ABS(a.timestamp - b.timestamp) < 60000
           WHERE a.type = ?
         `).get(typeB, typeA).count;
                 const countA = this.db.prepare('SELECT COUNT(*) as c FROM observations WHERE type = ?').get(typeA).c;
                 if (countA > 0 && coOccurrences / countA > 0.3) {
+                    const rate = Math.min(coOccurrences / countA, 1); // bounded 0-1
                     const existing = this.db.prepare(`SELECT id FROM hypotheses WHERE type = 'correlation' AND variables LIKE ? AND variables LIKE ? AND status != 'rejected'`).get(`%"${typeA}"%`, `%"${typeB}"%`);
                     if (!existing) {
                         results.push(this.propose({
-                            statement: `"${typeA}" and "${typeB}" events tend to occur together (co-occurrence rate: ${(coOccurrences / countA * 100).toFixed(0)}%)`,
+                            statement: `"${typeA}" and "${typeB}" events tend to occur together (co-occurrence rate: ${(rate * 100).toFixed(0)}%)`,
                             type: 'correlation',
                             source: 'hypothesis-engine',
                             variables: [typeA, typeB],
                             condition: {
                                 type: 'correlation',
-                                params: { typeA, typeB, windowMs: 60_000, observedRate: coOccurrences / countA },
+                                params: { typeA, typeB, windowMs: 60_000, observedRate: rate },
                             },
                         }));
                     }
@@ -553,10 +571,11 @@ export class HypothesisEngine {
         return results;
     }
     // ── Hypothesis Testing ────────────────────────────
-    testTemporalHypothesis(hyp, condition) {
+    testTemporalHypothesis(hyp, condition, holdoutTimestamp = 0) {
         const { eventType, peakHour } = condition.params;
-        const total = this.db.prepare('SELECT COUNT(*) as c FROM observations WHERE type = ?').get(eventType).c;
-        const inPeak = this.db.prepare('SELECT COUNT(*) as c FROM observations WHERE type = ? AND (timestamp / 3600000) % 24 = ?').get(eventType, peakHour).c;
+        // Only test on data after holdout (anti-confirmation-bias)
+        const total = this.db.prepare('SELECT COUNT(*) as c FROM observations WHERE type = ? AND timestamp > ?').get(eventType, holdoutTimestamp).c;
+        const inPeak = this.db.prepare('SELECT COUNT(*) as c FROM observations WHERE type = ? AND (timestamp / 3600000) % 24 = ? AND timestamp > ?').get(eventType, peakHour, holdoutTimestamp).c;
         const expected = total / 24;
         const evidenceFor = inPeak;
         const evidenceAgainst = Math.max(0, Math.round(expected) - inPeak);
@@ -565,20 +584,21 @@ export class HypothesisEngine {
         const pValue = Math.exp(-chiSq / 2); // rough p-value approximation
         return { evidenceFor, evidenceAgainst, pValue };
     }
-    testCorrelationHypothesis(hyp, condition) {
+    testCorrelationHypothesis(hyp, condition, holdoutTimestamp = 0) {
         const { typeA, typeB, windowMs } = condition.params;
+        // Only test on data after holdout (anti-confirmation-bias)
         const coOccurrences = this.db.prepare(`
-      SELECT COUNT(*) as count FROM observations a
+      SELECT COUNT(DISTINCT a.id) as count FROM observations a
       INNER JOIN observations b ON b.type = ? AND ABS(a.timestamp - b.timestamp) < ?
-      WHERE a.type = ?
-    `).get(typeB, windowMs, typeA).count;
-        const countA = this.db.prepare('SELECT COUNT(*) as c FROM observations WHERE type = ?').get(typeA).c;
-        const countB = this.db.prepare('SELECT COUNT(*) as c FROM observations WHERE type = ?').get(typeB).c;
+      WHERE a.type = ? AND a.timestamp > ?
+    `).get(typeB, windowMs, typeA, holdoutTimestamp).count;
+        const countA = this.db.prepare('SELECT COUNT(*) as c FROM observations WHERE type = ? AND timestamp > ?').get(typeA, holdoutTimestamp).c;
+        const countB = this.db.prepare('SELECT COUNT(*) as c FROM observations WHERE type = ? AND timestamp > ?').get(typeB, holdoutTimestamp).c;
         if (countA === 0 || countB === 0)
             return { evidenceFor: 0, evidenceAgainst: 0, pValue: 1 };
-        const observedRate = coOccurrences / countA;
+        const observedRate = Math.min(coOccurrences / countA, 1); // bounded 0-1
         // Expected rate under independence
-        const timeRange = this.getObservationTimeRange();
+        const timeRange = this.getObservationTimeRange(holdoutTimestamp);
         const expectedRate = timeRange > 0 ? Math.min(1, (countB / timeRange) * windowMs * 2) : 0;
         const evidenceFor = coOccurrences;
         const evidenceAgainst = Math.max(0, countA - coOccurrences);
@@ -589,10 +609,11 @@ export class HypothesisEngine {
         const pValue = Math.exp(-0.5 * z * z); // rough p-value
         return { evidenceFor, evidenceAgainst, pValue: Math.min(1, pValue) };
     }
-    testThresholdHypothesis(hyp, condition) {
+    testThresholdHypothesis(hyp, condition, holdoutTimestamp = 0) {
         const { eventType, threshold } = condition.params;
-        const above = this.db.prepare('SELECT COUNT(*) as c FROM observations WHERE type = ? AND value > ?').get(eventType, threshold).c;
-        const total = this.db.prepare('SELECT COUNT(*) as c FROM observations WHERE type = ?').get(eventType).c;
+        // Only test on data after holdout (anti-confirmation-bias)
+        const above = this.db.prepare('SELECT COUNT(*) as c FROM observations WHERE type = ? AND value > ? AND timestamp > ?').get(eventType, threshold, holdoutTimestamp).c;
+        const total = this.db.prepare('SELECT COUNT(*) as c FROM observations WHERE type = ? AND timestamp > ?').get(eventType, holdoutTimestamp).c;
         const below = total - above;
         // Test: is the proportion above threshold significantly different from random?
         const proportion = total > 0 ? above / total : 0;
@@ -605,16 +626,49 @@ export class HypothesisEngine {
         const pValue = Math.exp(-0.5 * z * z);
         return { evidenceFor: above, evidenceAgainst: below, pValue: Math.min(1, pValue) };
     }
-    testFrequencyHypothesis(_hyp, _condition) {
-        // Placeholder for frequency/periodicity testing
-        return { evidenceFor: 0, evidenceAgainst: 0, pValue: 1 };
+    /**
+     * Test frequency/periodicity hypotheses.
+     * Checks if events occur with a regular interval (period P ± tolerance).
+     */
+    testFrequencyHypothesis(hyp, condition, holdoutTimestamp = 0) {
+        const { eventType, periodMs, toleranceMs } = condition.params;
+        if (!periodMs || periodMs <= 0)
+            return { evidenceFor: 0, evidenceAgainst: 0, pValue: 1 };
+        const tolerance = toleranceMs ?? periodMs * 0.2; // 20% tolerance by default
+        // Get timestamps of events after holdout
+        const timestamps = this.db.prepare('SELECT timestamp FROM observations WHERE type = ? AND timestamp > ? ORDER BY timestamp').all(eventType, holdoutTimestamp).map(r => r.timestamp);
+        if (timestamps.length < 3)
+            return { evidenceFor: 0, evidenceAgainst: 0, pValue: 1 };
+        // Count how many consecutive intervals match the expected period
+        let matchingIntervals = 0;
+        let totalIntervals = 0;
+        for (let i = 1; i < timestamps.length; i++) {
+            const interval = timestamps[i] - timestamps[i - 1];
+            totalIntervals++;
+            if (Math.abs(interval - periodMs) <= tolerance) {
+                matchingIntervals++;
+            }
+        }
+        if (totalIntervals === 0)
+            return { evidenceFor: 0, evidenceAgainst: 0, pValue: 1 };
+        const matchRate = matchingIntervals / totalIntervals;
+        // Under random timing, expected match rate depends on tolerance/periodMs
+        const expectedRate = Math.min(1, (2 * tolerance) / periodMs);
+        const evidenceFor = matchingIntervals;
+        const evidenceAgainst = totalIntervals - matchingIntervals;
+        // Z-test for proportion
+        if (expectedRate <= 0 || expectedRate >= 1)
+            return { evidenceFor, evidenceAgainst, pValue: 1 };
+        const z = (matchRate - expectedRate) / Math.sqrt(expectedRate * (1 - expectedRate) / totalIntervals);
+        const pValue = Math.exp(-0.5 * z * z);
+        return { evidenceFor, evidenceAgainst, pValue: Math.min(1, pValue) };
     }
     // ── Helpers ───────────────────────────────────────
     getObservationTypes() {
         return this.db.prepare('SELECT DISTINCT type FROM observations').all().map(r => r.type);
     }
-    getObservationTimeRange() {
-        const row = this.db.prepare('SELECT MIN(timestamp) as min_ts, MAX(timestamp) as max_ts FROM observations').get();
+    getObservationTimeRange(sinceTimestamp = 0) {
+        const row = this.db.prepare('SELECT MIN(timestamp) as min_ts, MAX(timestamp) as max_ts FROM observations WHERE timestamp > ?').get(sinceTimestamp);
         return (row.max_ts ?? 0) - (row.min_ts ?? 0);
     }
 }

package/dist/hypothesis/engine.js.map CHANGED Viewed

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package/dist/prediction/prediction-engine.js CHANGED Viewed

@@ -279,6 +279,7 @@ export class PredictionEngine {
         const totalResolved = accuracy.reduce((sum, a) => sum + a.total - a.expired, 0);
         return {
             total_predictions: totalPredictions,
+            correct: totalCorrect,
             pending,
             resolved,
             accuracy_rate: totalResolved > 0 ? totalCorrect / totalResolved : 0,

package/dist/prediction/prediction-engine.js.map CHANGED Viewed

	@@ -1 +1 @@
1	- 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package/dist/prediction/types.d.ts CHANGED Viewed

@@ -51,6 +51,7 @@ export interface PredictionAccuracy {
 }
 export interface PredictionSummary {
     total_predictions: number;
+    correct: number;
     pending: number;
     resolved: number;
     accuracy_rate: number;

package/dist/research/cycle-outcome-tracker.d.ts CHANGED Viewed

@@ -1,24 +1,44 @@
 /**
  * CycleOutcomeTracker — Measures whether Brain improves over time.
  *
- * Tracks 4 hard metrics per cycle:
+ * Tracks 4 hard metrics per cycle. Each metric documents what it measures,
+ * what it does NOT measure, and how it can be gamed.
  *
- * 1. productive_rate — Cycles with at least one measurable artifact:
- *    confirmed hypothesis, learned rule, completed experiment, or actionable insight.
- *    Detection of anomalies alone does NOT count — a problem found is not a problem solved.
- *    Formula: count(productive) / count(total) over window
+ * ─── 1. productive_rate ───────────────────────────────────────────────
+ * MEASURES: Cycles with at least one measurable artifact (confirmed hypothesis,
+ *   learned rule, completed experiment, or actionable insight).
+ *   Anomaly detection alone does NOT count.
+ * DOES NOT MEASURE: Whether the artifact is valuable, non-trivial, or useful.
+ *   A cycle with 3 banale insights counts the same as one with a breakthrough.
+ * CAN BE GAMED BY: Generating many trivial insights or low-confidence rules.
+ *   An agent producing "insight: X happened today" inflates the rate.
+ * FORMULA: count(productive) / count(total) over window
+ * FUTURE: Split into raw_productive and meaningful_productive (weight by significance).
  *
- * 2. failed_rate — Cycles that consumed resources but produced nothing:
- *    errored/aborted cycles, OR cycles with tokens > 0 but zero productive outputs.
- *    Formula: count(failed) / count(total) over window
+ * ─── 2. failed_rate ──────────────────────────────────────────────────
+ * MEASURES: Cycles that errored OR consumed tokens but produced zero outputs.
+ * DOES NOT MEASURE: Cycles that produced useless/wrong outputs. A cycle with
+ *   garbage output and tokens > 0 is classified "productive", not "failed".
+ * CAN BE GAMED BY: Producing any output at all (even trivial) to avoid "failed".
+ * FORMULA: count(failed) / count(total) over window
+ * FUTURE: Add "wasted_rate" for cycles with output that gets rejected/ignored.
  *
- * 3. novelty_rate — Cycles with genuinely new output, not repetition:
- *    Each productive output gets a content fingerprint. If the fingerprint was already
- *    seen in the last 100 cycles, it's a repeat. Novelty = new fingerprints only.
- *    Formula: count(cycles with novel output) / count(productive cycles) over window
+ * ─── 3. novelty_rate (actually: recent-uniqueness-rate) ──────────────
+ * MEASURES: Whether output fingerprints were seen in the last 100 cycles.
+ *   This is repeat suppression / deduplication, not semantic novelty.
+ * DOES NOT MEASURE: Whether output is substantively new, relevant, or a real
+ *   epistemic contribution. Rephrasing old knowledge passes the fingerprint check.
+ * CAN BE GAMED BY: Minimally rephrasing old outputs to generate new fingerprints.
+ * FORMULA: count(cycles with novel output) / count(productive cycles) over window
+ * FUTURE: Semantic similarity check against knowledge base, not just fingerprint dedup.
  *
- * 4. efficiency_rate — Productive outputs per 1k tokens consumed:
- *    Formula: sum(productive_outputs) / max(sum(tokens_used), 1) * 1000
+ * ─── 4. efficiency_rate ──────────────────────────────────────────────
+ * MEASURES: Raw output count per 1k tokens consumed.
+ * DOES NOT MEASURE: Value per token. Rewards quantity over quality.
+ *   Fragmenting one insight into 5 small ones quintuples the rate.
+ * CAN BE GAMED BY: Producing many tiny, fragmented outputs cheaply.
+ * FORMULA: sum(total_outputs) / max(sum(tokens_used), 1) * 1000
+ * FUTURE: weighted_efficiency using significance weights (breakthrough=5x, routine=1x).
  *
  * All outcomes are persisted to SQLite and can be aggregated over any time window.
  */

package/dist/research/cycle-outcome-tracker.js CHANGED Viewed

@@ -1,24 +1,44 @@
 /**
  * CycleOutcomeTracker — Measures whether Brain improves over time.
  *
- * Tracks 4 hard metrics per cycle:
+ * Tracks 4 hard metrics per cycle. Each metric documents what it measures,
+ * what it does NOT measure, and how it can be gamed.
  *
- * 1. productive_rate — Cycles with at least one measurable artifact:
- *    confirmed hypothesis, learned rule, completed experiment, or actionable insight.
- *    Detection of anomalies alone does NOT count — a problem found is not a problem solved.
- *    Formula: count(productive) / count(total) over window
+ * ─── 1. productive_rate ───────────────────────────────────────────────
+ * MEASURES: Cycles with at least one measurable artifact (confirmed hypothesis,
+ *   learned rule, completed experiment, or actionable insight).
+ *   Anomaly detection alone does NOT count.
+ * DOES NOT MEASURE: Whether the artifact is valuable, non-trivial, or useful.
+ *   A cycle with 3 banale insights counts the same as one with a breakthrough.
+ * CAN BE GAMED BY: Generating many trivial insights or low-confidence rules.
+ *   An agent producing "insight: X happened today" inflates the rate.
+ * FORMULA: count(productive) / count(total) over window
+ * FUTURE: Split into raw_productive and meaningful_productive (weight by significance).
  *
- * 2. failed_rate — Cycles that consumed resources but produced nothing:
- *    errored/aborted cycles, OR cycles with tokens > 0 but zero productive outputs.
- *    Formula: count(failed) / count(total) over window
+ * ─── 2. failed_rate ──────────────────────────────────────────────────
+ * MEASURES: Cycles that errored OR consumed tokens but produced zero outputs.
+ * DOES NOT MEASURE: Cycles that produced useless/wrong outputs. A cycle with
+ *   garbage output and tokens > 0 is classified "productive", not "failed".
+ * CAN BE GAMED BY: Producing any output at all (even trivial) to avoid "failed".
+ * FORMULA: count(failed) / count(total) over window
+ * FUTURE: Add "wasted_rate" for cycles with output that gets rejected/ignored.
  *
- * 3. novelty_rate — Cycles with genuinely new output, not repetition:
- *    Each productive output gets a content fingerprint. If the fingerprint was already
- *    seen in the last 100 cycles, it's a repeat. Novelty = new fingerprints only.
- *    Formula: count(cycles with novel output) / count(productive cycles) over window
+ * ─── 3. novelty_rate (actually: recent-uniqueness-rate) ──────────────
+ * MEASURES: Whether output fingerprints were seen in the last 100 cycles.
+ *   This is repeat suppression / deduplication, not semantic novelty.
+ * DOES NOT MEASURE: Whether output is substantively new, relevant, or a real
+ *   epistemic contribution. Rephrasing old knowledge passes the fingerprint check.
+ * CAN BE GAMED BY: Minimally rephrasing old outputs to generate new fingerprints.
+ * FORMULA: count(cycles with novel output) / count(productive cycles) over window
+ * FUTURE: Semantic similarity check against knowledge base, not just fingerprint dedup.
  *
- * 4. efficiency_rate — Productive outputs per 1k tokens consumed:
- *    Formula: sum(productive_outputs) / max(sum(tokens_used), 1) * 1000
+ * ─── 4. efficiency_rate ──────────────────────────────────────────────
+ * MEASURES: Raw output count per 1k tokens consumed.
+ * DOES NOT MEASURE: Value per token. Rewards quantity over quality.
+ *   Fragmenting one insight into 5 small ones quintuples the rate.
+ * CAN BE GAMED BY: Producing many tiny, fragmented outputs cheaply.
+ * FORMULA: sum(total_outputs) / max(sum(tokens_used), 1) * 1000
+ * FUTURE: weighted_efficiency using significance weights (breakthrough=5x, routine=1x).
  *
  * All outcomes are persisted to SQLite and can be aggregated over any time window.
  */

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package/package.json CHANGED Viewed

@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
 {
   "name": "@timmeck/brain-core",
-  "version": "2.36.75",
+  "version": "2.36.77",
   "description": "Shared core infrastructure for the Brain ecosystem — IPC, MCP, CLI, DB connection, and utilities",
   "type": "module",
   "main": "dist/index.js",