@timmeck/brain-core 2.36.74 → 2.36.76

package/dist/rag/rag-engine.js.map

@@ -1 +1 @@
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package/dist/research/cycle-outcome-tracker.d.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,127 @@
+/**
+ * CycleOutcomeTracker — Measures whether Brain improves over time.
+ *
+ * Tracks 4 hard metrics per cycle. Each metric documents what it measures,
+ * what it does NOT measure, and how it can be gamed.
+ *
+ * ─── 1. productive_rate ───────────────────────────────────────────────
+ * MEASURES: Cycles with at least one measurable artifact (confirmed hypothesis,
+ *   learned rule, completed experiment, or actionable insight).
+ *   Anomaly detection alone does NOT count.
+ * DOES NOT MEASURE: Whether the artifact is valuable, non-trivial, or useful.
+ *   A cycle with 3 banale insights counts the same as one with a breakthrough.
+ * CAN BE GAMED BY: Generating many trivial insights or low-confidence rules.
+ *   An agent producing "insight: X happened today" inflates the rate.
+ * FORMULA: count(productive) / count(total) over window
+ * FUTURE: Split into raw_productive and meaningful_productive (weight by significance).
+ *
+ * ─── 2. failed_rate ──────────────────────────────────────────────────
+ * MEASURES: Cycles that errored OR consumed tokens but produced zero outputs.
+ * DOES NOT MEASURE: Cycles that produced useless/wrong outputs. A cycle with
+ *   garbage output and tokens > 0 is classified "productive", not "failed".
+ * CAN BE GAMED BY: Producing any output at all (even trivial) to avoid "failed".
+ * FORMULA: count(failed) / count(total) over window
+ * FUTURE: Add "wasted_rate" for cycles with output that gets rejected/ignored.
+ *
+ * ─── 3. novelty_rate (actually: recent-uniqueness-rate) ──────────────
+ * MEASURES: Whether output fingerprints were seen in the last 100 cycles.
+ *   This is repeat suppression / deduplication, not semantic novelty.
+ * DOES NOT MEASURE: Whether output is substantively new, relevant, or a real
+ *   epistemic contribution. Rephrasing old knowledge passes the fingerprint check.
+ * CAN BE GAMED BY: Minimally rephrasing old outputs to generate new fingerprints.
+ * FORMULA: count(cycles with novel output) / count(productive cycles) over window
+ * FUTURE: Semantic similarity check against knowledge base, not just fingerprint dedup.
+ *
+ * ─── 4. efficiency_rate ──────────────────────────────────────────────
+ * MEASURES: Raw output count per 1k tokens consumed.
+ * DOES NOT MEASURE: Value per token. Rewards quantity over quality.
+ *   Fragmenting one insight into 5 small ones quintuples the rate.
+ * CAN BE GAMED BY: Producing many tiny, fragmented outputs cheaply.
+ * FORMULA: sum(total_outputs) / max(sum(tokens_used), 1) * 1000
+ * FUTURE: weighted_efficiency using significance weights (breakthrough=5x, routine=1x).
+ *
+ * All outcomes are persisted to SQLite and can be aggregated over any time window.
+ */
+import type Database from 'better-sqlite3';
+export interface CycleOutcomeRecord {
+    cycle: number;
+    timestamp: number;
+    durationMs: number;
+    tokensUsed: number;
+    insightsFound: number;
+    rulesLearned: number;
+    hypothesesConfirmed: number;
+    experimentsCompleted: number;
+    actionsExecuted: number;
+    errored: boolean;
+    outputFingerprints: string[];
+}
+export type CycleClassification = 'productive' | 'failed' | 'idle';
+export interface CycleRates {
+    window: string;
+    totalCycles: number;
+    productiveRate: number;
+    failedRate: number;
+    noveltyRate: number;
+    efficiencyRate: number;
+    avgDurationMs: number;
+}
+export interface CycleOutcomeRow {
+    id: number;
+    cycle: number;
+    timestamp: number;
+    duration_ms: number;
+    tokens_used: number;
+    insights_found: number;
+    rules_learned: number;
+    hypotheses_confirmed: number;
+    experiments_completed: number;
+    actions_executed: number;
+    errored: number;
+    classification: string;
+    novel_outputs: number;
+    total_outputs: number;
+    output_fingerprints: string;
+}
+export declare class CycleOutcomeTracker {
+    private db;
+    private log;
+    constructor(db: Database.Database);
+    private ensureTable;
+    /**
+     * Record one cycle's outcome.
+     * Call this at the end of each ResearchOrchestrator cycle.
+     */
+    recordOutcome(record: CycleOutcomeRecord): CycleClassification;
+    /**
+     * Get aggregated rates for a time window.
+     * @param windowHours Hours to look back (0 = all time)
+     */
+    getRates(windowHours?: number): CycleRates;
+    /**
+     * Get rate history as time series (one point per day).
+     * @param days Number of days to look back
+     */
+    getRateHistory(days?: number): Array<{
+        date: string;
+    } & CycleRates>;
+    /** Get the last N cycle outcomes. */
+    getRecent(limit?: number): CycleOutcomeRow[];
+    /**
+     * Classify a cycle. Rules:
+     * - errored → 'failed'
+     * - tokens > 0 but totalOutputs === 0 → 'failed' (consumed resources, produced nothing)
+     * - totalOutputs > 0 → 'productive'
+     * - everything else → 'idle' (no tokens, no output — scheduler skipped or trivial)
+     */
+    private classify;
+    /**
+     * Count how many of this cycle's fingerprints are genuinely new
+     * (not seen in the last NOVELTY_LOOKBACK_CYCLES cycles).
+     */
+    private countNovelOutputs;
+}
+/** Create a content fingerprint for novelty detection. */
+export declare function fingerprint(content: string): string;
+/** Run the cycle_outcomes migration (idempotent). */
+export declare function runCycleOutcomeMigration(db: Database.Database): void;

package/dist/research/cycle-outcome-tracker.js

@@ -0,0 +1,236 @@
+/**
+ * CycleOutcomeTracker — Measures whether Brain improves over time.
+ *
+ * Tracks 4 hard metrics per cycle. Each metric documents what it measures,
+ * what it does NOT measure, and how it can be gamed.
+ *
+ * ─── 1. productive_rate ───────────────────────────────────────────────
+ * MEASURES: Cycles with at least one measurable artifact (confirmed hypothesis,
+ *   learned rule, completed experiment, or actionable insight).
+ *   Anomaly detection alone does NOT count.
+ * DOES NOT MEASURE: Whether the artifact is valuable, non-trivial, or useful.
+ *   A cycle with 3 banale insights counts the same as one with a breakthrough.
+ * CAN BE GAMED BY: Generating many trivial insights or low-confidence rules.
+ *   An agent producing "insight: X happened today" inflates the rate.
+ * FORMULA: count(productive) / count(total) over window
+ * FUTURE: Split into raw_productive and meaningful_productive (weight by significance).
+ *
+ * ─── 2. failed_rate ──────────────────────────────────────────────────
+ * MEASURES: Cycles that errored OR consumed tokens but produced zero outputs.
+ * DOES NOT MEASURE: Cycles that produced useless/wrong outputs. A cycle with
+ *   garbage output and tokens > 0 is classified "productive", not "failed".
+ * CAN BE GAMED BY: Producing any output at all (even trivial) to avoid "failed".
+ * FORMULA: count(failed) / count(total) over window
+ * FUTURE: Add "wasted_rate" for cycles with output that gets rejected/ignored.
+ *
+ * ─── 3. novelty_rate (actually: recent-uniqueness-rate) ──────────────
+ * MEASURES: Whether output fingerprints were seen in the last 100 cycles.
+ *   This is repeat suppression / deduplication, not semantic novelty.
+ * DOES NOT MEASURE: Whether output is substantively new, relevant, or a real
+ *   epistemic contribution. Rephrasing old knowledge passes the fingerprint check.
+ * CAN BE GAMED BY: Minimally rephrasing old outputs to generate new fingerprints.
+ * FORMULA: count(cycles with novel output) / count(productive cycles) over window
+ * FUTURE: Semantic similarity check against knowledge base, not just fingerprint dedup.
+ *
+ * ─── 4. efficiency_rate ──────────────────────────────────────────────
+ * MEASURES: Raw output count per 1k tokens consumed.
+ * DOES NOT MEASURE: Value per token. Rewards quantity over quality.
+ *   Fragmenting one insight into 5 small ones quintuples the rate.
+ * CAN BE GAMED BY: Producing many tiny, fragmented outputs cheaply.
+ * FORMULA: sum(total_outputs) / max(sum(tokens_used), 1) * 1000
+ * FUTURE: weighted_efficiency using significance weights (breakthrough=5x, routine=1x).
+ *
+ * All outcomes are persisted to SQLite and can be aggregated over any time window.
+ */
+import { createHash } from 'node:crypto';
+import { getLogger } from '../utils/logger.js';
+// ── Constants ───────────────────────────────────────────
+/** How many recent cycles to check for fingerprint deduplication. */
+const NOVELTY_LOOKBACK_CYCLES = 100;
+// ── Tracker ─────────────────────────────────────────────
+export class CycleOutcomeTracker {
+    db;
+    log = getLogger();
+    constructor(db) {
+        this.db = db;
+        this.ensureTable();
+    }
+    ensureTable() {
+        this.db.exec(`
+      CREATE TABLE IF NOT EXISTS cycle_outcomes (
+        id INTEGER PRIMARY KEY AUTOINCREMENT,
+        cycle INTEGER NOT NULL,
+        timestamp INTEGER NOT NULL,
+        duration_ms INTEGER NOT NULL DEFAULT 0,
+        tokens_used INTEGER NOT NULL DEFAULT 0,
+        insights_found INTEGER NOT NULL DEFAULT 0,
+        rules_learned INTEGER NOT NULL DEFAULT 0,
+        hypotheses_confirmed INTEGER NOT NULL DEFAULT 0,
+        experiments_completed INTEGER NOT NULL DEFAULT 0,
+        actions_executed INTEGER NOT NULL DEFAULT 0,
+        errored INTEGER NOT NULL DEFAULT 0,
+        classification TEXT NOT NULL DEFAULT 'idle',
+        novel_outputs INTEGER NOT NULL DEFAULT 0,
+        total_outputs INTEGER NOT NULL DEFAULT 0,
+        output_fingerprints TEXT NOT NULL DEFAULT '[]',
+        created_at TEXT NOT NULL DEFAULT (datetime('now'))
+      );
+      CREATE INDEX IF NOT EXISTS idx_cycle_outcomes_cycle ON cycle_outcomes(cycle);
+      CREATE INDEX IF NOT EXISTS idx_cycle_outcomes_ts ON cycle_outcomes(timestamp);
+    `);
+    }
+    /**
+     * Record one cycle's outcome.
+     * Call this at the end of each ResearchOrchestrator cycle.
+     */
+    recordOutcome(record) {
+        const totalOutputs = record.insightsFound + record.rulesLearned
+            + record.hypothesesConfirmed + record.experimentsCompleted + record.actionsExecuted;
+        const classification = this.classify(record, totalOutputs);
+        const novelOutputs = this.countNovelOutputs(record.cycle, record.outputFingerprints);
+        this.db.prepare(`
+      INSERT INTO cycle_outcomes
+        (cycle, timestamp, duration_ms, tokens_used, insights_found, rules_learned,
+         hypotheses_confirmed, experiments_completed, actions_executed, errored,
+         classification, novel_outputs, total_outputs, output_fingerprints)
+      VALUES (?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?)
+    `).run(record.cycle, record.timestamp, record.durationMs, record.tokensUsed, record.insightsFound, record.rulesLearned, record.hypothesesConfirmed, record.experimentsCompleted, record.actionsExecuted, record.errored ? 1 : 0, classification, novelOutputs, totalOutputs, JSON.stringify(record.outputFingerprints));
+        this.log.debug(`[CycleOutcome] Cycle #${record.cycle}: ${classification}, ${totalOutputs} outputs (${novelOutputs} novel), ${record.tokensUsed} tokens`);
+        return classification;
+    }
+    /**
+     * Get aggregated rates for a time window.
+     * @param windowHours Hours to look back (0 = all time)
+     */
+    getRates(windowHours = 0) {
+        const windowLabel = windowHours === 0 ? 'all'
+            : windowHours <= 24 ? `${windowHours}h`
+                : `${Math.round(windowHours / 24)}d`;
+        const whereClause = windowHours > 0
+            ? `WHERE timestamp > ${Date.now() - windowHours * 3_600_000}`
+            : '';
+        const rows = this.db.prepare(`
+      SELECT
+        COUNT(*) as total,
+        SUM(CASE WHEN classification = 'productive' THEN 1 ELSE 0 END) as productive,
+        SUM(CASE WHEN classification = 'failed' THEN 1 ELSE 0 END) as failed,
+        SUM(CASE WHEN classification = 'productive' AND novel_outputs > 0 THEN 1 ELSE 0 END) as novel_productive,
+        SUM(total_outputs) as total_outputs,
+        SUM(tokens_used) as total_tokens,
+        AVG(duration_ms) as avg_duration
+      FROM cycle_outcomes ${whereClause}
+    `).get();
+        if (!rows || rows.total === 0) {
+            return {
+                window: windowLabel, totalCycles: 0,
+                productiveRate: 0, failedRate: 0, noveltyRate: 0, efficiencyRate: 0, avgDurationMs: 0,
+            };
+        }
+        return {
+            window: windowLabel,
+            totalCycles: rows.total,
+            productiveRate: rows.productive / rows.total,
+            failedRate: rows.failed / rows.total,
+            noveltyRate: rows.productive > 0 ? rows.novel_productive / rows.productive : 0,
+            efficiencyRate: (rows.total_outputs / Math.max(rows.total_tokens, 1)) * 1000,
+            avgDurationMs: rows.avg_duration,
+        };
+    }
+    /**
+     * Get rate history as time series (one point per day).
+     * @param days Number of days to look back
+     */
+    getRateHistory(days = 30) {
+        const since = Date.now() - days * 86_400_000;
+        const rows = this.db.prepare(`
+      SELECT
+        date(created_at) as day,
+        COUNT(*) as total,
+        SUM(CASE WHEN classification = 'productive' THEN 1 ELSE 0 END) as productive,
+        SUM(CASE WHEN classification = 'failed' THEN 1 ELSE 0 END) as failed,
+        SUM(CASE WHEN classification = 'productive' AND novel_outputs > 0 THEN 1 ELSE 0 END) as novel_productive,
+        SUM(total_outputs) as total_outputs,
+        SUM(tokens_used) as total_tokens,
+        AVG(duration_ms) as avg_duration
+      FROM cycle_outcomes
+      WHERE timestamp > ?
+      GROUP BY day
+      ORDER BY day
+    `).all(since);
+        return rows.map(r => ({
+            date: r.day,
+            window: '1d',
+            totalCycles: r.total,
+            productiveRate: r.productive / r.total,
+            failedRate: r.failed / r.total,
+            noveltyRate: r.productive > 0 ? r.novel_productive / r.productive : 0,
+            efficiencyRate: (r.total_outputs / Math.max(r.total_tokens, 1)) * 1000,
+            avgDurationMs: r.avg_duration,
+        }));
+    }
+    /** Get the last N cycle outcomes. */
+    getRecent(limit = 20) {
+        return this.db.prepare(`
+      SELECT * FROM cycle_outcomes ORDER BY cycle DESC LIMIT ?
+    `).all(limit);
+    }
+    // ── Classification ────────────────────────────────────
+    /**
+     * Classify a cycle. Rules:
+     * - errored → 'failed'
+     * - tokens > 0 but totalOutputs === 0 → 'failed' (consumed resources, produced nothing)
+     * - totalOutputs > 0 → 'productive'
+     * - everything else → 'idle' (no tokens, no output — scheduler skipped or trivial)
+     */
+    classify(record, totalOutputs) {
+        if (record.errored)
+            return 'failed';
+        if (totalOutputs > 0)
+            return 'productive';
+        if (record.tokensUsed > 0)
+            return 'failed'; // consumed tokens but produced nothing
+        return 'idle';
+    }
+    // ── Novelty detection ─────────────────────────────────
+    /**
+     * Count how many of this cycle's fingerprints are genuinely new
+     * (not seen in the last NOVELTY_LOOKBACK_CYCLES cycles).
+     */
+    countNovelOutputs(currentCycle, fingerprints) {
+        if (fingerprints.length === 0)
+            return 0;
+        // Get all fingerprints from recent cycles
+        const recentRows = this.db.prepare(`
+      SELECT output_fingerprints FROM cycle_outcomes
+      WHERE cycle > ? AND cycle < ?
+      ORDER BY cycle DESC
+    `).all(currentCycle - NOVELTY_LOOKBACK_CYCLES, currentCycle);
+        const seenFingerprints = new Set();
+        for (const row of recentRows) {
+            try {
+                const fps = JSON.parse(row.output_fingerprints);
+                for (const fp of fps)
+                    seenFingerprints.add(fp);
+            }
+            catch { /* skip malformed */ }
+        }
+        let novel = 0;
+        for (const fp of fingerprints) {
+            if (!seenFingerprints.has(fp))
+                novel++;
+        }
+        return novel;
+    }
+}
+// ── Utility ─────────────────────────────────────────────
+/** Create a content fingerprint for novelty detection. */
+export function fingerprint(content) {
+    // Normalize whitespace and case, then hash
+    const normalized = content.toLowerCase().replace(/\s+/g, ' ').trim();
+    return createHash('sha256').update(normalized).digest('hex').slice(0, 16);
+}
+/** Run the cycle_outcomes migration (idempotent). */
+export function runCycleOutcomeMigration(db) {
+    new CycleOutcomeTracker(db);
+}
+//# sourceMappingURL=cycle-outcome-tracker.js.map

package/dist/research/cycle-outcome-tracker.js.map

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package/dist/research/research-orchestrator.d.ts

@@ -142,6 +142,7 @@ export declare class ResearchOrchestrator {
     private loopDetector;
     private governanceLayer;
     private adaptiveScheduler;
+    private cycleOutcomeTracker;
     private lastAutoMissionTime;
     private lastGoalMissionTime;
     private roadmapBootstrapped;
@@ -177,6 +178,8 @@ export declare class ResearchOrchestrator {
     setOnSuggestion(callback: (suggestions: string[]) => void): void;
     /** Set the AdaptiveScheduler for dynamic cycle intervals. */
     setAdaptiveScheduler(scheduler: AdaptiveScheduler): void;
+    /** Set the CycleOutcomeTracker for long-term cycle metrics. */
+    setCycleOutcomeTracker(tracker: import('./cycle-outcome-tracker.js').CycleOutcomeTracker): void;
     /** Get the AdaptiveScheduler instance. */
     getAdaptiveScheduler(): AdaptiveScheduler | null;
     /** Set the DataMiner instance for DB-driven engine feeding. */

package/dist/research/research-orchestrator.js

@@ -90,6 +90,7 @@ export class ResearchOrchestrator {
     loopDetector = null;
     governanceLayer = null;
     adaptiveScheduler = null;
+    cycleOutcomeTracker = null;
     lastAutoMissionTime = 0;
     lastGoalMissionTime = 0;
     roadmapBootstrapped = false;
@@ -151,6 +152,10 @@ export class ResearchOrchestrator {
     setAdaptiveScheduler(scheduler) {
         this.adaptiveScheduler = scheduler;
     }
+    /** Set the CycleOutcomeTracker for long-term cycle metrics. */
+    setCycleOutcomeTracker(tracker) {
+        this.cycleOutcomeTracker = tracker;
+    }
     /** Get the AdaptiveScheduler instance. */
     getAdaptiveScheduler() {
         return this.adaptiveScheduler;
@@ -3143,6 +3148,35 @@ export class ResearchOrchestrator {
                 durationMs: duration,
             });
         }
+        // Cycle Outcome Tracking: long-term productive/failed/novelty/efficiency rates
+        if (this.cycleOutcomeTracker) {
+            try {
+                const { fingerprint } = await import('./cycle-outcome-tracker.js');
+                const hypSummary = this.hypothesisEngine.getSummary();
+                const llmStats = this.llmService?.getStats?.();
+                // Build output fingerprints from this cycle's concrete artifacts
+                const fps = [];
+                for (const ins of insights.slice(0, 10)) {
+                    fps.push(fingerprint(ins.title ?? ins.type ?? JSON.stringify(ins)));
+                }
+                this.cycleOutcomeTracker.recordOutcome({
+                    cycle: this.cycleCount,
+                    timestamp: Date.now(),
+                    durationMs: duration,
+                    tokensUsed: llmStats?.tokensThisHour ?? 0,
+                    insightsFound: insights.length,
+                    rulesLearned: 0,
+                    hypothesesConfirmed: hypSummary.confirmed ?? 0,
+                    experimentsCompleted: 0, // tracked externally via AutoExperimentEngine
+                    actionsExecuted: 0,
+                    errored: false,
+                    outputFingerprints: fps,
+                });
+            }
+            catch (err) {
+                this.log.debug(`[orchestrator] CycleOutcomeTracker error: ${err.message}`);
+            }
+        }
         // Step-profiling summary: log slow steps if any
         if (stepTimings.length > 0) {
             this.log.warn(`[orchestrator] Cycle #${this.cycleCount} slow steps: ${stepTimings.map(s => `${s.step}(${s.ms}ms)`).join(', ')}`);