@timmeck/brain-core 2.3.0 → 2.4.0

package/dist/hypothesis/engine.js

@@ -0,0 +1,386 @@
+import { getLogger } from '../utils/logger.js';
+// ── Migration ───────────────────────────────────────────
+export function runHypothesisMigration(db) {
+    db.exec(`
+    CREATE TABLE IF NOT EXISTS hypotheses (
+      id INTEGER PRIMARY KEY AUTOINCREMENT,
+      statement TEXT NOT NULL,
+      type TEXT NOT NULL,
+      source TEXT NOT NULL,
+      variables TEXT NOT NULL,
+      condition TEXT NOT NULL,
+      status TEXT NOT NULL DEFAULT 'proposed',
+      evidence_for INTEGER NOT NULL DEFAULT 0,
+      evidence_against INTEGER NOT NULL DEFAULT 0,
+      confidence REAL NOT NULL DEFAULT 0,
+      p_value REAL NOT NULL DEFAULT 1,
+      created_at TEXT NOT NULL DEFAULT (datetime('now')),
+      tested_at TEXT
+    );
+
+    CREATE TABLE IF NOT EXISTS observations (
+      id INTEGER PRIMARY KEY AUTOINCREMENT,
+      source TEXT NOT NULL,
+      type TEXT NOT NULL,
+      value REAL NOT NULL,
+      timestamp INTEGER NOT NULL,
+      metadata TEXT,
+      created_at TEXT NOT NULL DEFAULT (datetime('now'))
+    );
+
+    CREATE INDEX IF NOT EXISTS idx_hypotheses_status ON hypotheses(status);
+    CREATE INDEX IF NOT EXISTS idx_hypotheses_confidence ON hypotheses(confidence DESC);
+    CREATE INDEX IF NOT EXISTS idx_observations_type ON observations(type);
+    CREATE INDEX IF NOT EXISTS idx_observations_timestamp ON observations(timestamp);
+  `);
+}
+// ── Engine ───────────────────────────────────────────────
+/**
+ * Hypothesis Engine: generates and tests hypotheses autonomously.
+ *
+ * Research approach: The scientific method, automated.
+ *
+ * 1. OBSERVE: Collect observations from all brains
+ * 2. HYPOTHESIZE: Generate hypotheses from patterns in observations
+ *    - Temporal: "Event A occurs more often during time window X"
+ *    - Correlation: "When metric A increases, metric B also increases"
+ *    - Threshold: "Performance degrades when metric A exceeds value X"
+ *    - Frequency: "Event A happens with period P"
+ * 3. TEST: Evaluate hypotheses against historical data using statistical tests
+ * 4. CONCLUDE: Accept or reject based on evidence
+ */
+export class HypothesisEngine {
+    db;
+    logger = getLogger();
+    minEvidence;
+    confirmThreshold; // p-value below this → confirmed
+    rejectThreshold; // p-value above this → rejected
+    constructor(db, config) {
+        this.db = db;
+        runHypothesisMigration(db);
+        this.minEvidence = config?.minEvidence ?? 10;
+        this.confirmThreshold = config?.confirmThreshold ?? 0.05;
+        this.rejectThreshold = config?.rejectThreshold ?? 0.5;
+    }
+    /** Record an observation for hypothesis generation and testing. */
+    observe(observation) {
+        this.db.prepare(`
+      INSERT INTO observations (source, type, value, timestamp, metadata)
+      VALUES (?, ?, ?, ?, ?)
+    `).run(observation.source, observation.type, observation.value, observation.timestamp, observation.metadata ? JSON.stringify(observation.metadata) : null);
+    }
+    /** Propose a hypothesis manually or from automated detection. */
+    propose(hypothesis) {
+        const stmt = this.db.prepare(`
+      INSERT INTO hypotheses (statement, type, source, variables, condition, status)
+      VALUES (?, ?, ?, ?, ?, 'proposed')
+    `);
+        const info = stmt.run(hypothesis.statement, hypothesis.type, hypothesis.source, JSON.stringify(hypothesis.variables), JSON.stringify(hypothesis.condition));
+        this.logger.info(`Hypothesis proposed: "${hypothesis.statement}"`);
+        return this.get(Number(info.lastInsertRowid));
+    }
+    /**
+     * Auto-generate hypotheses from observation patterns.
+     * This is the creative part — the system forms its own theories.
+     */
+    generate() {
+        const generated = [];
+        // Strategy 1: Temporal patterns — "Event X happens more on certain hours"
+        const temporalHypotheses = this.generateTemporalHypotheses();
+        generated.push(...temporalHypotheses);
+        // Strategy 2: Correlation — "When metric A is high, metric B is also high"
+        const correlationHypotheses = this.generateCorrelationHypotheses();
+        generated.push(...correlationHypotheses);
+        // Strategy 3: Threshold — "Performance drops when metric exceeds X"
+        const thresholdHypotheses = this.generateThresholdHypotheses();
+        generated.push(...thresholdHypotheses);
+        this.logger.info(`Generated ${generated.length} hypotheses`);
+        return generated;
+    }
+    /**
+     * Test a hypothesis against available data.
+     * Returns the test result with updated status.
+     */
+    test(hypothesisId) {
+        const hyp = this.get(hypothesisId);
+        if (!hyp)
+            return null;
+        const condition = typeof hyp.condition === 'string'
+            ? JSON.parse(hyp.condition)
+            : hyp.condition;
+        let result;
+        switch (condition.type) {
+            case 'temporal':
+                result = this.testTemporalHypothesis(hyp, condition);
+                break;
+            case 'correlation':
+                result = this.testCorrelationHypothesis(hyp, condition);
+                break;
+            case 'threshold':
+                result = this.testThresholdHypothesis(hyp, condition);
+                break;
+            case 'frequency':
+                result = this.testFrequencyHypothesis(hyp, condition);
+                break;
+            default:
+                return null;
+        }
+        const totalEvidence = result.evidenceFor + result.evidenceAgainst;
+        const confidence = totalEvidence > 0 ? result.evidenceFor / totalEvidence : 0;
+        let newStatus = 'testing';
+        if (totalEvidence >= this.minEvidence) {
+            if (result.pValue < this.confirmThreshold) {
+                newStatus = 'confirmed';
+            }
+            else if (result.pValue > this.rejectThreshold) {
+                newStatus = 'rejected';
+            }
+            else {
+                newStatus = 'inconclusive';
+            }
+        }
+        // Update in DB
+        this.db.prepare(`
+      UPDATE hypotheses SET
+        evidence_for = ?, evidence_against = ?,
+        confidence = ?, p_value = ?, status = ?,
+        tested_at = datetime('now')
+      WHERE id = ?
+    `).run(result.evidenceFor, result.evidenceAgainst, confidence, result.pValue, newStatus, hypothesisId);
+        this.logger.info(`Hypothesis #${hypothesisId} tested: ${newStatus} (p=${result.pValue.toFixed(4)}, confidence=${confidence.toFixed(3)})`);
+        return {
+            hypothesisId,
+            passed: newStatus === 'confirmed',
+            evidenceFor: result.evidenceFor,
+            evidenceAgainst: result.evidenceAgainst,
+            pValue: result.pValue,
+            confidence,
+            newStatus,
+        };
+    }
+    /** Test all proposed/testing hypotheses. */
+    testAll() {
+        const hypotheses = this.db.prepare(`SELECT id FROM hypotheses WHERE status IN ('proposed', 'testing')`).all();
+        return hypotheses
+            .map(h => this.test(h.id))
+            .filter((r) => r !== null);
+    }
+    /** Get a hypothesis by ID. */
+    get(id) {
+        const row = this.db.prepare('SELECT * FROM hypotheses WHERE id = ?').get(id);
+        if (!row)
+            return null;
+        return {
+            ...row,
+            variables: JSON.parse(row.variables),
+            condition: JSON.parse(row.condition),
+        };
+    }
+    /** List hypotheses by status. */
+    list(status, limit = 50) {
+        let rows;
+        if (status) {
+            rows = this.db.prepare('SELECT * FROM hypotheses WHERE status = ? ORDER BY confidence DESC LIMIT ?').all(status, limit);
+        }
+        else {
+            rows = this.db.prepare('SELECT * FROM hypotheses ORDER BY confidence DESC LIMIT ?').all(limit);
+        }
+        return rows.map(r => ({
+            ...r,
+            variables: JSON.parse(r.variables),
+            condition: JSON.parse(r.condition),
+        }));
+    }
+    /** Get summary statistics. */
+    getSummary() {
+        const counts = this.db.prepare(`
+      SELECT status, COUNT(*) as count FROM hypotheses GROUP BY status
+    `).all();
+        const statusMap = {};
+        let total = 0;
+        for (const { status, count } of counts) {
+            statusMap[status] = count;
+            total += count;
+        }
+        const obsCount = this.db.prepare('SELECT COUNT(*) as c FROM observations').get().c;
+        const topConfirmed = this.list('confirmed', 5);
+        return {
+            total,
+            proposed: statusMap['proposed'] ?? 0,
+            testing: statusMap['testing'] ?? 0,
+            confirmed: statusMap['confirmed'] ?? 0,
+            rejected: statusMap['rejected'] ?? 0,
+            inconclusive: statusMap['inconclusive'] ?? 0,
+            totalObservations: obsCount,
+            topConfirmed,
+        };
+    }
+    // ── Hypothesis Generation Strategies ──────────────
+    generateTemporalHypotheses() {
+        const results = [];
+        const types = this.getObservationTypes();
+        for (const type of types) {
+            // Check if there's a time-of-day pattern
+            const hourCounts = this.db.prepare(`
+        SELECT (timestamp / 3600000) % 24 as hour, COUNT(*) as count
+        FROM observations WHERE type = ?
+        GROUP BY hour HAVING count >= 3
+        ORDER BY count DESC LIMIT 1
+      `).get(type);
+            if (!hourCounts)
+                continue;
+            const totalCount = this.db.prepare('SELECT COUNT(*) as c FROM observations WHERE type = ?').get(type).c;
+            // If peak hour has > 2x average, propose a hypothesis
+            const avgPerHour = totalCount / 24;
+            if (hourCounts.count > avgPerHour * 2) {
+                const existing = this.db.prepare(`SELECT id FROM hypotheses WHERE type = 'temporal' AND variables LIKE ? AND status != 'rejected'`).get(`%"${type}"%`);
+                if (!existing) {
+                    results.push(this.propose({
+                        statement: `"${type}" events occur disproportionately around hour ${hourCounts.hour}:00 UTC`,
+                        type: 'temporal',
+                        source: 'hypothesis-engine',
+                        variables: [type],
+                        condition: {
+                            type: 'temporal',
+                            params: { eventType: type, peakHour: hourCounts.hour, expectedRatio: hourCounts.count / avgPerHour },
+                        },
+                    }));
+                }
+            }
+        }
+        return results;
+    }
+    generateCorrelationHypotheses() {
+        const results = [];
+        const types = this.getObservationTypes();
+        // Check pairwise correlations between observation types
+        for (let i = 0; i < types.length; i++) {
+            for (let j = i + 1; j < types.length; j++) {
+                const typeA = types[i];
+                const typeB = types[j];
+                // Simple correlation: count co-occurrences within 1 minute windows
+                const coOccurrences = this.db.prepare(`
+          SELECT COUNT(*) as count FROM observations a
+          INNER JOIN observations b ON b.type = ? AND ABS(a.timestamp - b.timestamp) < 60000
+          WHERE a.type = ?
+        `).get(typeB, typeA).count;
+                const countA = this.db.prepare('SELECT COUNT(*) as c FROM observations WHERE type = ?').get(typeA).c;
+                if (countA > 0 && coOccurrences / countA > 0.3) {
+                    const existing = this.db.prepare(`SELECT id FROM hypotheses WHERE type = 'correlation' AND variables LIKE ? AND variables LIKE ? AND status != 'rejected'`).get(`%"${typeA}"%`, `%"${typeB}"%`);
+                    if (!existing) {
+                        results.push(this.propose({
+                            statement: `"${typeA}" and "${typeB}" events tend to occur together (co-occurrence rate: ${(coOccurrences / countA * 100).toFixed(0)}%)`,
+                            type: 'correlation',
+                            source: 'hypothesis-engine',
+                            variables: [typeA, typeB],
+                            condition: {
+                                type: 'correlation',
+                                params: { typeA, typeB, windowMs: 60_000, observedRate: coOccurrences / countA },
+                            },
+                        }));
+                    }
+                }
+            }
+        }
+        return results;
+    }
+    generateThresholdHypotheses() {
+        const results = [];
+        const types = this.getObservationTypes();
+        for (const type of types) {
+            // Look for value distributions with clear thresholds
+            const stats = this.db.prepare(`
+        SELECT AVG(value) as avg, MAX(value) as max, MIN(value) as min,
+               COUNT(*) as count
+        FROM observations WHERE type = ?
+      `).get(type);
+            if (stats.count < 10)
+                continue;
+            // Check if high values correlate with other events
+            const threshold = stats.avg + (stats.max - stats.avg) * 0.5;
+            const highCount = this.db.prepare('SELECT COUNT(*) as c FROM observations WHERE type = ? AND value > ?').get(type, threshold).c;
+            if (highCount >= 3 && highCount < stats.count * 0.3) {
+                const existing = this.db.prepare(`SELECT id FROM hypotheses WHERE type = 'threshold' AND variables LIKE ? AND status != 'rejected'`).get(`%"${type}"%`);
+                if (!existing) {
+                    results.push(this.propose({
+                        statement: `"${type}" shows anomalous behavior when value exceeds ${threshold.toFixed(2)} (affects ${(highCount / stats.count * 100).toFixed(0)}% of observations)`,
+                        type: 'threshold',
+                        source: 'hypothesis-engine',
+                        variables: [type],
+                        condition: {
+                            type: 'threshold',
+                            params: { eventType: type, threshold, aboveCount: highCount, totalCount: stats.count },
+                        },
+                    }));
+                }
+            }
+        }
+        return results;
+    }
+    // ── Hypothesis Testing ────────────────────────────
+    testTemporalHypothesis(hyp, condition) {
+        const { eventType, peakHour } = condition.params;
+        const total = this.db.prepare('SELECT COUNT(*) as c FROM observations WHERE type = ?').get(eventType).c;
+        const inPeak = this.db.prepare('SELECT COUNT(*) as c FROM observations WHERE type = ? AND (timestamp / 3600000) % 24 = ?').get(eventType, peakHour).c;
+        const expected = total / 24;
+        const evidenceFor = inPeak;
+        const evidenceAgainst = Math.max(0, Math.round(expected) - inPeak);
+        // Chi-squared test approximation (1 degree of freedom)
+        const chiSq = expected > 0 ? Math.pow(inPeak - expected, 2) / expected : 0;
+        const pValue = Math.exp(-chiSq / 2); // rough p-value approximation
+        return { evidenceFor, evidenceAgainst, pValue };
+    }
+    testCorrelationHypothesis(hyp, condition) {
+        const { typeA, typeB, windowMs } = condition.params;
+        const coOccurrences = this.db.prepare(`
+      SELECT COUNT(*) as count FROM observations a
+      INNER JOIN observations b ON b.type = ? AND ABS(a.timestamp - b.timestamp) < ?
+      WHERE a.type = ?
+    `).get(typeB, windowMs, typeA).count;
+        const countA = this.db.prepare('SELECT COUNT(*) as c FROM observations WHERE type = ?').get(typeA).c;
+        const countB = this.db.prepare('SELECT COUNT(*) as c FROM observations WHERE type = ?').get(typeB).c;
+        if (countA === 0 || countB === 0)
+            return { evidenceFor: 0, evidenceAgainst: 0, pValue: 1 };
+        const observedRate = coOccurrences / countA;
+        // Expected rate under independence
+        const timeRange = this.getObservationTimeRange();
+        const expectedRate = timeRange > 0 ? Math.min(1, (countB / timeRange) * windowMs * 2) : 0;
+        const evidenceFor = coOccurrences;
+        const evidenceAgainst = Math.max(0, countA - coOccurrences);
+        // Simplified z-test for proportions
+        if (expectedRate <= 0 || expectedRate >= 1)
+            return { evidenceFor, evidenceAgainst, pValue: 1 };
+        const z = (observedRate - expectedRate) / Math.sqrt(expectedRate * (1 - expectedRate) / countA);
+        const pValue = Math.exp(-0.5 * z * z); // rough p-value
+        return { evidenceFor, evidenceAgainst, pValue: Math.min(1, pValue) };
+    }
+    testThresholdHypothesis(hyp, condition) {
+        const { eventType, threshold } = condition.params;
+        const above = this.db.prepare('SELECT COUNT(*) as c FROM observations WHERE type = ? AND value > ?').get(eventType, threshold).c;
+        const total = this.db.prepare('SELECT COUNT(*) as c FROM observations WHERE type = ?').get(eventType).c;
+        const below = total - above;
+        // Test: is the proportion above threshold significantly different from random?
+        const proportion = total > 0 ? above / total : 0;
+        // Under null hypothesis, threshold splits data randomly
+        const expectedProportion = 0.5;
+        const z = total > 0
+            ? (proportion - expectedProportion) / Math.sqrt(expectedProportion * (1 - expectedProportion) / total)
+            : 0;
+        // We care about the threshold being meaningful, so evidence is relative
+        const pValue = Math.exp(-0.5 * z * z);
+        return { evidenceFor: above, evidenceAgainst: below, pValue: Math.min(1, pValue) };
+    }
+    testFrequencyHypothesis(_hyp, _condition) {
+        // Placeholder for frequency/periodicity testing
+        return { evidenceFor: 0, evidenceAgainst: 0, pValue: 1 };
+    }
+    // ── Helpers ───────────────────────────────────────
+    getObservationTypes() {
+        return this.db.prepare('SELECT DISTINCT type FROM observations').all().map(r => r.type);
+    }
+    getObservationTimeRange() {
+        const row = this.db.prepare('SELECT MIN(timestamp) as min_ts, MAX(timestamp) as max_ts FROM observations').get();
+        return (row.max_ts ?? 0) - (row.min_ts ?? 0);
+    }
+}
+//# sourceMappingURL=engine.js.map

package/dist/hypothesis/engine.js.map

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package/dist/index.d.ts

@@ -59,3 +59,9 @@ export { ExportService } from './export/service.js';
 export type { ExportOptions, ExportResult } from './export/service.js';
 export { BackupService } from './backup/service.js';
 export type { BackupConfig, BackupRecord, RestoreResult } from './backup/service.js';
+export { MetaLearningEngine, runMetaLearningMigration } from './meta-learning/engine.js';
+export type { HyperParameter, LearningSnapshot, ParameterRecommendation, MetaLearningStatus } from './meta-learning/engine.js';
+export { CausalGraph, runCausalMigration } from './causal/engine.js';
+export type { CausalEvent, CausalEdge, CausalPath, CausalAnalysis } from './causal/engine.js';
+export { HypothesisEngine, runHypothesisMigration } from './hypothesis/engine.js';
+export type { Hypothesis, HypothesisStatus, HypothesisCondition, HypothesisTestResult, Observation } from './hypothesis/engine.js';

package/dist/index.js

@@ -51,4 +51,10 @@ export { WebhookService, runWebhookMigration } from './webhooks/service.js';
 export { ExportService } from './export/service.js';
 // ── Backup ────────────────────────────────────────────────
 export { BackupService } from './backup/service.js';
+// ── Meta-Learning ────────────────────────────────────────
+export { MetaLearningEngine, runMetaLearningMigration } from './meta-learning/engine.js';
+// ── Causal Inference ─────────────────────────────────────
+export { CausalGraph, runCausalMigration } from './causal/engine.js';
+// ── Hypothesis Engine ────────────────────────────────────
+export { HypothesisEngine, runHypothesisMigration } from './hypothesis/engine.js';
 //# sourceMappingURL=index.js.map

package/dist/index.js.map

@@ -1 +1 @@
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package/dist/meta-learning/engine.d.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,108 @@
+import type Database from 'better-sqlite3';
+export interface HyperParameter {
+    name: string;
+    value: number;
+    min: number;
+    max: number;
+    step: number;
+}
+export interface LearningSnapshot {
+    id?: number;
+    cycle: number;
+    params: Record<string, number>;
+    metrics: Record<string, number>;
+    score: number;
+    created_at?: string;
+}
+export interface ParameterRecommendation {
+    name: string;
+    currentValue: number;
+    recommendedValue: number;
+    expectedImprovement: number;
+    confidence: number;
+    evidence: number;
+}
+export interface MetaLearningStatus {
+    totalSnapshots: number;
+    totalOptimizations: number;
+    bestScore: number;
+    worstScore: number;
+    currentScore: number;
+    trend: 'improving' | 'stable' | 'declining';
+    recommendations: ParameterRecommendation[];
+}
+export declare function runMetaLearningMigration(db: Database.Database): void;
+/**
+ * Meta-Learning Engine: observes learning cycle outcomes over time
+ * and auto-tunes hyperparameters using gradient-free optimization.
+ *
+ * Research approach: Bayesian-inspired parameter search.
+ * - After each learning cycle, record a snapshot (params + metrics + effectiveness score)
+ * - Periodically analyze: which parameter configurations produced the best scores?
+ * - Use perturbation: try small changes to parameters, measure improvement, keep what works
+ * - Implements "explore vs exploit": 80% exploit best known, 20% explore new configurations
+ */
+export declare class MetaLearningEngine {
+    private db;
+    private params;
+    private logger;
+    private cycleCount;
+    private analyzeInterval;
+    private explorationRate;
+    constructor(db: Database.Database, params: HyperParameter[], config?: {
+        analyzeInterval?: number;
+        explorationRate?: number;
+    });
+    /**
+     * Record a learning cycle's outcome. Called after each learning cycle.
+     * @param metrics - the raw metrics from the cycle (e.g. newPatterns, updatedRules, prunedRules)
+     * @param score - a composite effectiveness score (higher = better)
+     */
+    recordSnapshot(metrics: Record<string, number>, score: number): LearningSnapshot;
+    /**
+     * Analyze snapshots and recommend parameter changes.
+     * Uses a simplified approach inspired by Bayesian optimization:
+     * - Group snapshots by parameter ranges
+     * - Find which ranges produced the best average scores
+     * - Recommend moving towards those ranges
+     */
+    analyze(): ParameterRecommendation[];
+    /**
+     * Apply recommendations: perturb parameters towards better configurations.
+     * Returns the parameters that were changed.
+     */
+    optimize(): ParameterRecommendation[];
+    /**
+     * Run analysis + optimization if it's time. Call this after every learning cycle.
+     */
+    step(metrics: Record<string, number>, score: number): {
+        snapshot: LearningSnapshot;
+        optimized: ParameterRecommendation[];
+    };
+    /** Get current parameter values. */
+    getParams(): Record<string, number>;
+    /** Update a parameter value externally (e.g. user override). */
+    setParam(name: string, value: number): boolean;
+    /** Get learning effectiveness status. */
+    getStatus(): MetaLearningStatus;
+    /** Get optimization history. */
+    getHistory(limit?: number): Array<{
+        param_name: string;
+        old_value: number;
+        new_value: number;
+        reason: string;
+        improvement: number | null;
+        created_at: string;
+    }>;
+    private getSnapshots;
+    /**
+     * Analyze a single parameter's effect on learning effectiveness.
+     *
+     * Algorithm:
+     * 1. Divide the parameter's range into bins
+     * 2. For each bin, calculate the average score of snapshots in that bin
+     * 3. Find the bin with the highest average score
+     * 4. Recommend moving towards the center of that bin
+     */
+    private analyzeParameter;
+}