npm - @things-factory/headless-twin - Versions diffs - 10.1.37 → 10.1.38 - Mend

@things-factory/headless-twin 10.1.37 → 10.1.38

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package/dist-server/service/twin-forecast/gap-analytics.js.map CHANGED Viewed

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예측 정확도 진단 — SPC·정확도·편향·보정 계산의 canonical 구현(서버 소유).\n * 프레젠테이션(클라)이 아니라 여기에서 한 번 계산해 twinForecastGapTrend 가 돌려준다 → API·twin-ai·경보·다른 UI 재사용, 서버 테스트 가능.\n \n 두 축(독립):\n * 안정성(stability) — 오차 폭이 일정한가(SPC I-chart: 관리한계 이탈=shift, 단조 추세=drift).\n * 편향(bias) — 평균 오차(CL)가 목표 0 에서 벗어났나(CL 이 관리폭 절반 이상 이탈 또는 추적신호 큼).\n * 관리도는 자기 평균(CL)을 중심으로 잡으므로 \"안정적\"이 \"무편향\"을 뜻하지 않는다 — 그래서 별도 축.\n /\n\n/* SPC I-chart 표본 수 — 신뢰할 만한 관리한계의 통설 최소(20~25) 하한. 서버가 관장(표현 계층 아님). /\nexport const GAP_SAMPLES = 24\n\nexport interface GapPoint {\n t: number\n p50: number\n min: number\n max: number\n actual: number\n error: number // 실제 − 예측(p50). 양수 = 과소예측(예측이 낮음).\n inBand: boolean\n naiveAbsError: number\n modelAbsError: number\n}\n\n/* 합산 결과 + 무엇을 못 넣었는지. 알리지 않고 줄이지 않는다. /\nexport interface AggregateResult {\n points: GapPoint[]\n /* 한 트윈이라도 재지 못해 통째로 뺀 vantage 수. /\n droppedVantages: number\n}\n\n/\n 공동배치(co-located) 트윈들의 점 배열을 공장 단위 한 시계열로 합산.\n \n ── 예전에 무엇이 어긋나 있었나 (2026-08-08) ─────────────────────────────────\n * \"동일 부팅 → vantage 정렬\" 을 가정하고 배열 인덱스끼리 더했다. 그 가정은 세 곳에서 깨졌다:\n \n ① 격자를 트윈마다 자기 저널의 첫·마지막 이벤트로 만들었다. 저널 구간이 다르면 같은 인덱스가\n * 서로 다른 시각이다. 부팅이 같아도 어긋난다.\n * ② 한 vantage 를 못 재면 `continue` 로 건너뛰고 밀어 담았다. 그 순간부터 인덱스가 한 칸씩 밀린다.\n * ③ 길이를 `max` 로 잡아, 뒤쪽 인덱스는 남은 트윈만 더해졌다 — 공장 합계 곡선이 꼬리에서\n * 아래로 꺾인다. 공장과 아무 상관 없는 이유로.\n \n 셋 다 오류를 내지 않았다. 그럴듯한 곡선이 나오고, 그 곡선으로 예측 정확도를 판정했다.\n \n ── 지금 ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────\n * 격자는 밖에서 하나를 만들어 모두에게 같은 것을 주고(`sharedGrid`), 못 잰 자리는 `null` 로\n * 남긴다. 여기서는 모든 트윈이 값을 가진 vantage 만 더한다. 하나라도 비면 그 시각의\n * 공장 총량은 알 수 없는 것이지, 그 트윈이 0 을 낸 것이 아니다.\n \n 뺀 개수는 돌려준다 — 화면이 \"24점 중 18점\" 이라고 말할 수 있어야 한다.\n /\nexport function aggregatePoints(per: (GapPoint \| null)[][]): AggregateResult {\n if (!per.length) return { points: [], droppedVantages: 0 }\n const n = Math.max(0, ...per.map(pts => pts.length))\n const out: GapPoint[] = []\n let droppedVantages = 0\n for (let i = 0; i < n; i++) {\n const slot = per.map(pts => pts[i])\n if (slot.some(pt => !pt)) { droppedVantages++; continue }\n const pts = slot as GapPoint[]\n const sum = (f: (p: GapPoint) => number) => pts.reduce((a, p) => a + f(p), 0)\n const p50 = sum(p => p.p50)\n const min = sum(p => p.min)\n const max = sum(p => p.max)\n const actual = sum(p => p.actual)\n out.push({\n t: pts[0].t, // 격자가 하나이므로 어느 트윈에서 읽어도 같다.\n p50, min, max, actual,\n error: actual - p50,\n inBand: actual >= min && actual <= max,\n naiveAbsError: sum(p => p.naiveAbsError),\n modelAbsError: sum(p => p.modelAbsError)\n })\n }\n return { points: out, droppedVantages }\n}\n\n/* 안정성 축 + 편향 축 판정(관리도). errors = 실제−예측 시계열. /\nexport function computeSpc(errors: number[]): any {\n const n = errors.length\n if (n < 4) return { insufficient: true }\n const cl = errors.reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0) / n\n const mr: number[] = []\n for (let i = 1; i < n; i++) mr.push(Math.abs(errors[i] - errors[i - 1]))\n const mrBar = mr.reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0) / mr.length\n const sigma = mrBar / 1.128 \|\| Math.max(1e-6, Math.abs(cl) 0.01) // d2(n=2)=1.128\n const ucl = cl + 3 * sigma, lcl = cl - 3 * sigma\n // 축1 안정성 — 관리한계 이탈(shift) 또는 단조 추세(drift).\n const ooc = errors.map((e, i) => (e > ucl \|\| e < lcl ? i : -1)).filter(i => i >= 0)\n let up = 1, down = 1, trend = false\n for (let i = 1; i < n; i++) { up = errors[i] > errors[i - 1] ? up + 1 : 1; down = errors[i] < errors[i - 1] ? down + 1 : 1; if (up >= 6 \|\| down >= 6) trend = true }\n const instability = ooc.length ? 'shift' : trend ? 'drift' : null\n // 축2 편향 — 평균 오차가 0 에서 이탈. \|CL\| > 0.5σ 또는 추적신호(누적오차/평균절대오차) > 4.\n const mad = errors.reduce((s, e) => s + Math.abs(e), 0) / n \|\| 1\n const trackingSignal = errors.reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0) / mad\n const biased = Math.abs(cl) > 0.5 * sigma \|\| Math.abs(trackingSignal) > 4\n return { cl, ucl, lcl, sigma, n, ooc, instability, stable: !instability, biased, biasSign: cl >= 0 ? 'under' : 'over', trackingSignal }\n}\n\n/** 집계 지표 — 정확도(1−WMAPE)·편향(MPE)·예측구간 적중·FVA(예측 가치). /\nexport function gapMetrics(pts: GapPoint[]): any {\n const sumAbsErr = pts.reduce((s, x) => s + Math.abs(x.error), 0)\n const sumActual = pts.reduce((s, x) => s + Math.abs(x.actual), 0)\n const wmape = sumActual ? sumAbsErr / sumActual : 0\n const accuracy = Math.max(0, Math.round((1 - wmape) 100))\n const mpe = pts.length ? pts.reduce((s, x) => s + x.error, 0) / pts.length : 0\n const coverage = pts.length ? pts.filter(x => x.inBand).length / pts.length : 0\n // 예측 가치(FVA) — \"현재값 그대로\"(naive) 대비 오차 감소. fva=감소 총량, fvaPct=naive 오차를 몇 % 줄였나(가치의 크기).\n const sumNaive = pts.reduce((s, x) => s + x.naiveAbsError, 0)\n const sumModel = pts.reduce((s, x) => s + x.modelAbsError, 0)\n const fva = sumNaive - sumModel\n const fvaPct = sumNaive > 0 ? Math.round((1 - sumModel / sumNaive) * 100) : 0\n return { accuracy, mpe, coverage, inBandCount: pts.filter(x => x.inBand).length, total: pts.length, fva, fvaPct }\n}\n\n/** 학습(자기보정) 예상 — 평균 오차(편향)를 걷어냈을 때 기대되는 정확도·커버리지. accBefore/covBefore 는 원본 지표에서. /\nexport function learnedCalibration(pts: GapPoint[], metrics: any): any {\n if (pts.length < 3) return null\n const errs = pts.map(p => p.error)\n const biasShift = errs.reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0) / errs.length // 학습된 편향(이만큼 예측을 올림/내림)\n const corrected = errs.map(e => e - biasShift) // 편향 제거 후 잔차\n const absC = corrected.map(Math.abs).sort((a, b) => a - b)\n const halfWidth = absC[Math.floor(absC.length 0.8)] ?? (absC[absC.length - 1] \|\| 1) // 80% 커버리지 밴드\n const sumActual = pts.reduce((s, p) => s + Math.abs(p.actual), 0) \|\| 1\n const accAfter = Math.max(0, Math.round((1 - corrected.reduce((s, e) => s + Math.abs(e), 0) / sumActual) * 100))\n const covAfter = corrected.filter(e => Math.abs(e) <= halfWidth).length\n return { biasShift: Math.round(biasShift), halfWidth: Math.round(halfWidth), accBefore: metrics.accuracy, accAfter, covBefore: metrics.inBandCount, covAfter, n: pts.length }\n}\n"]}
1	+ 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예측 정확도 진단 — SPC·정확도·편향·보정 계산의 canonical 구현(서버 소유).\n * 프레젠테이션(클라)이 아니라 여기에서 한 번 계산해 twinForecastGapTrend 가 돌려준다 → API·twin-ai·경보·다른 UI 재사용, 서버 테스트 가능.\n \n 두 축(독립):\n * 안정성(stability) — 오차 폭이 일정한가(SPC I-chart: 관리한계 이탈=shift, 단조 추세=drift).\n * 편향(bias) — 평균 오차(CL)가 목표 0 에서 벗어났나(CL 이 관리폭 절반 이상 이탈 또는 추적신호 큼).\n * 관리도는 자기 평균(CL)을 중심으로 잡으므로 \"안정적\"이 \"무편향\"을 뜻하지 않는다 — 그래서 별도 축.\n /\n\n/* SPC I-chart 표본 수 — 신뢰할 만한 관리한계의 통설 최소(20~25) 하한. 서버가 관장(표현 계층 아님). /\nexport const GAP_SAMPLES = 24\n\nexport interface GapPoint {\n t: number\n p50: number\n min: number\n max: number\n actual: number\n error: number // 실제 − 예측(p50). 양수 = 과소예측(예측이 낮음).\n inBand: boolean\n naiveAbsError: number\n modelAbsError: number\n}\n\n/* 합산 결과 + 무엇을 못 넣었는지. 알리지 않고 줄이지 않는다. /\nexport interface AggregateResult {\n points: GapPoint[]\n /* 한 트윈이라도 재지 못해 통째로 뺀 vantage 수. /\n droppedVantages: number\n}\n\n/\n 공동배치(co-located) 트윈들의 점 배열을 공장 단위 한 시계열로 합산.\n \n ── 예전에 무엇이 어긋나 있었나 (2026-08-08) ─────────────────────────────────\n * \"동일 부팅 → vantage 정렬\" 을 가정하고 배열 인덱스끼리 더했다. 그 가정은 세 곳에서 깨졌다:\n \n ① 격자를 트윈마다 자기 저널의 첫·마지막 이벤트로 만들었다. 저널 구간이 다르면 같은 인덱스가\n * 서로 다른 시각이다. 부팅이 같아도 어긋난다.\n * ② 한 vantage 를 못 재면 `continue` 로 건너뛰고 밀어 담았다. 그 순간부터 인덱스가 한 칸씩 밀린다.\n * ③ 길이를 `max` 로 잡아, 뒤쪽 인덱스는 남은 트윈만 더해졌다 — 공장 합계 곡선이 꼬리에서\n * 아래로 꺾인다. 공장과 아무 상관 없는 이유로.\n \n 셋 다 오류를 내지 않았다. 그럴듯한 곡선이 나오고, 그 곡선으로 예측 정확도를 판정했다.\n \n ── 지금 ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────\n * 격자는 밖에서 하나를 만들어 모두에게 같은 것을 주고(`sharedGrid`), 못 잰 자리는 `null` 로\n * 남긴다. 여기서는 모든 트윈이 값을 가진 vantage 만 더한다. 하나라도 비면 그 시각의\n * 공장 총량은 알 수 없는 것이지, 그 트윈이 0 을 낸 것이 아니다.\n \n 뺀 개수는 돌려준다 — 화면이 \"24점 중 18점\" 이라고 말할 수 있어야 한다.\n /\nexport function aggregatePoints(per: (GapPoint \| null)[][]): AggregateResult {\n if (!per.length) return { points: [], droppedVantages: 0 }\n const n = Math.max(0, ...per.map(pts => pts.length))\n const out: GapPoint[] = []\n let droppedVantages = 0\n for (let i = 0; i < n; i++) {\n const slot = per.map(pts => pts[i])\n if (slot.some(pt => !pt)) { droppedVantages++; continue }\n const pts = slot as GapPoint[]\n const sum = (f: (p: GapPoint) => number) => pts.reduce((a, p) => a + f(p), 0)\n const p50 = sum(p => p.p50)\n const min = sum(p => p.min)\n const max = sum(p => p.max)\n const actual = sum(p => p.actual)\n out.push({\n t: pts[0].t, // 격자가 하나이므로 어느 트윈에서 읽어도 같다.\n p50, min, max, actual,\n error: actual - p50,\n inBand: actual >= min && actual <= max,\n naiveAbsError: sum(p => p.naiveAbsError),\n modelAbsError: sum(p => p.modelAbsError)\n })\n }\n return { points: out, droppedVantages }\n}\n\n/* 안정성 축 + 편향 축 판정(관리도). errors = 실제−예측 시계열. /\nexport function computeSpc(errors: number[]): any {\n const n = errors.length\n if (n < 4) return { insufficient: true }\n const cl = errors.reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0) / n\n const mr: number[] = []\n for (let i = 1; i < n; i++) mr.push(Math.abs(errors[i] - errors[i - 1]))\n const mrBar = mr.reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0) / mr.length\n const sigma = mrBar / 1.128 \|\| Math.max(1e-6, Math.abs(cl) 0.01) // d2(n=2)=1.128\n const ucl = cl + 3 * sigma, lcl = cl - 3 * sigma\n // 축1 안정성 — 관리한계 이탈(shift) 또는 단조 추세(drift).\n const ooc = errors.map((e, i) => (e > ucl \|\| e < lcl ? i : -1)).filter(i => i >= 0)\n let up = 1, down = 1, trend = false\n for (let i = 1; i < n; i++) { up = errors[i] > errors[i - 1] ? up + 1 : 1; down = errors[i] < errors[i - 1] ? down + 1 : 1; if (up >= 6 \|\| down >= 6) trend = true }\n const instability = ooc.length ? 'shift' : trend ? 'drift' : null\n // 축2 편향 — 평균 오차가 0 에서 이탈. \|CL\| > 0.5σ 또는 추적신호(누적오차/평균절대오차) > 4.\n const mad = errors.reduce((s, e) => s + Math.abs(e), 0) / n \|\| 1\n const trackingSignal = errors.reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0) / mad\n const biased = Math.abs(cl) > 0.5 * sigma \|\| Math.abs(trackingSignal) > 4\n return { cl, ucl, lcl, sigma, n, ooc, instability, stable: !instability, biased, biasSign: cl >= 0 ? 'under' : 'over', trackingSignal }\n}\n\n/*\n 집계 지표 — 정확도(1−WMAPE)·편향(MPE)·예측구간 적중·FVA(예측 가치).\n \n A percentage whose denominator is zero is not measured, and says so with `null` (2026-09-24).\n * When every actual in the window is 0 — the line stood still, or the metric was not observed — WMAPE\n * is undefined. It used to become 0, so the card read \"100% accurate\" beside \"0 of 6 in band, mean\n * error −20\". Likewise `fvaPct` when the naive error is 0: 0 read as \"the forecast adds nothing\".\n * The absolute measures (mean error, in-band count, fva) are real in that window and stay. The two\n * neighbours below already refuse on thin evidence (`computeSpc` · `learnedCalibration`).\n /\nexport function gapMetrics(pts: GapPoint[]): any {\n const sumAbsErr = pts.reduce((s, x) => s + Math.abs(x.error), 0)\n const sumActual = pts.reduce((s, x) => s + Math.abs(x.actual), 0)\n const accuracy = sumActual > 0 ? Math.max(0, Math.round((1 - sumAbsErr / sumActual) 100)) : null\n const mpe = pts.length ? pts.reduce((s, x) => s + x.error, 0) / pts.length : 0\n const coverage = pts.length ? pts.filter(x => x.inBand).length / pts.length : 0\n // 예측 가치(FVA) — \"현재값 그대로\"(naive) 대비 오차 감소. fva=감소 총량, fvaPct=naive 오차를 몇 % 줄였나(가치의 크기).\n const sumNaive = pts.reduce((s, x) => s + x.naiveAbsError, 0)\n const sumModel = pts.reduce((s, x) => s + x.modelAbsError, 0)\n const fva = sumNaive - sumModel\n const fvaPct = sumNaive > 0 ? Math.round((1 - sumModel / sumNaive) * 100) : null\n return { accuracy, mpe, coverage, inBandCount: pts.filter(x => x.inBand).length, total: pts.length, fva, fvaPct }\n}\n\n/** 학습(자기보정) 예상 — 평균 오차(편향)를 걷어냈을 때 기대되는 정확도·커버리지. accBefore/covBefore 는 원본 지표에서. /\nexport function learnedCalibration(pts: GapPoint[], metrics: any): any {\n if (pts.length < 3) return null\n const errs = pts.map(p => p.error)\n const biasShift = errs.reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0) / errs.length // 학습된 편향(이만큼 예측을 올림/내림)\n const corrected = errs.map(e => e - biasShift) // 편향 제거 후 잔차\n const absC = corrected.map(Math.abs).sort((a, b) => a - b)\n const halfWidth = absC[Math.floor(absC.length 0.8)] ?? (absC[absC.length - 1] \|\| 1) // 80% 커버리지 밴드\n /* The bias is learnable with every actual at 0; the accuracy before and after is not (see gapMetrics). /\n const sumActual = pts.reduce((s, p) => s + Math.abs(p.actual), 0)\n const accAfter = sumActual > 0 ? Math.max(0, Math.round((1 - corrected.reduce((s, e) => s + Math.abs(e), 0) / sumActual) 100)) : null\n const covAfter = corrected.filter(e => Math.abs(e) <= halfWidth).length\n return { biasShift: Math.round(biasShift), halfWidth: Math.round(halfWidth), accBefore: metrics.accuracy, accAfter, covBefore: metrics.inBandCount, covAfter, n: pts.length }\n}\n"]}

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{ twinLog } from '../../engine/log.js'\nimport { hydratedDate } from '../../engine/read-time.js'\nimport { Arg, Ctx, Int, Mutation, Query, Resolver, Directive} from 'type-graphql'\n\nimport { getRepository, ScalarObject } from '@things-factory/shell'\n\nimport { TwinEngine } from '../../engine/index.js'\nimport { readSpecCoverage } from '../../engine/spec-coverage.js'\nimport { describeModelBasis, modelBasisChanged, type ModelBasis } from '../../engine/model-basis.js'\nimport { TwinEvent } from '../twin-event/twin-event.js'\nimport { GAP_SAMPLES, aggregatePoints, computeSpc, gapMetrics, learnedCalibration, type GapPoint } from './gap-analytics.js'\nimport { FORECAST_METRICS, type MetricFn } from './forecast-metrics.js'\nimport { forecastStepMs } from './forecast-tuning.js'\n\n/* 커널 예측 함수 — CJS require(twin-engine 과 동일 방식). /\nconst { monteCarloForecastAsync } = require('@operato/twin-kernel')\n\n/\n 이벤트 루프에 자리를 내주는 방법 — 커널이 아니라 여기가 안다.\n \n `setImmediate` 는 대기 중인 I/O 다음 차례에 돌아온다. 마이크로태스크(`Promise.resolve()`)로는\n * 자리가 가지 않는다 — 그러면 예측이 도는 동안 라이브 틱도 HTTP 도 여전히 멈춘다.\n \n ── 내준 시간은 부하가 아니다 ───────────────────────────────────────────\n * 부하 계기는 「이 트윈이 루프를 얼마나 붙잡았나」를 재는 자다. 양보를 넣은 뒤로 벽시계 시간에는\n * 남에게 넘긴 시간이 섞이는데, 그것까지 부하로 적으면 계기가 거짓말을 한다 — 하필 이 문제를 짚어낸\n * 그 계기다. 그래서 내준 시간을 따로 세어 빼고 적는다.\n /\nfunction breather() {\n let yieldedMs = 0\n return {\n fn: () =>\n new Promise<void>(resolve => {\n const t = performance.now()\n setImmediate(() => {\n yieldedMs += performance.now() - t\n resolve()\n })\n }),\n get ms() {\n return yieldedMs\n }\n }\n}\n\n/\n * 트윈 예측 채널 — 상향 query. 트윈의 \"예측(predict)\" 면(설계 §3.5, ADR-0009).\n * 커널 monteCarloForecast(현재에서 N fork → 지표 분포) + 단일 fork 예측 궤적. 원본 live 무간섭(fork 격리).\n * metric 은 도메인-일반(스냅샷 파생), scenario 는 미래 자극(기본=계속 입고, 실 시스템은 인스턴스/설정 파생).\n /\nconst GTIN = 'urn:epc:idpat:sgtin:0614141.012345.'\nconst DEFAULT_SCENARIO = {\n seed: 7,\n generators: [\n { kind: 'inbound-arrival', rate: { distribution: 'poisson', meanPerHour: 60 }, content: { skuMix: [{ gtin: GTIN, weight: 1 }], qtyPerLine: { min: 4, max: 12 } } }\n ]\n}\n/\n 지표 표는 `forecast-metrics.ts` 가 소유한다 — 여기 있던 것을 옮겼다(시험이 이 파일을 불러올 수 없다).\n \n 모르는 지표를 `items` 로 갈음하지 않는다. 예전에는 `METRICS[metric] ?? METRICS.items` 였다.\n * 에너지 트윈에서 `peakKW` 를 물으면 재고 곡선이 그려지고, 재고가 없으니 0 이 평평하게 나왔다 —\n * 화면은 그것을 「피크가 0」으로 읽는다. 지어낸 답보다 모른다고 말하는 편이 낫다.\n /\nfunction metricFn(metric?: string): MetricFn \| null {\n if (!metric) return FORECAST_METRICS.items\n return FORECAST_METRICS[metric] ?? null\n}\n\n/ 학습된 보정 저장(P3.2, 인메모리) — key=domain:instance:metric:horizon → {biasShift, halfWidth, …}.\n twinLearnCalibration 이 갭에서 학습해 저장하고, twinForecast 가 있으면 예측에 상시 적용(라이브 보정).\n 데모 트윈은 재부팅 시 저널 리셋이라 세션 스코프로 충분 — DB 영속(TwinForecastScore)은 후속. /\nconst CALIBRATION = new Map<\n string,\n { biasShift: number; halfWidth: number; at: string; samples: number; accBefore: number; accAfter: number; basis?: ModelBasis }\n>()\nconst calKey = (d: string, i: string, m: string, h: number) => `${d}:${i}:${m}:${h}`\n\n/\n 이 트윈이 백테스트할 수 있는 구간 — [첫 이벤트, 마지막 이벤트 − H].\n * 지평 H 만큼 앞을 봐야 \"그때 예측한 것\"과 \"실제로 벌어진 것\"을 맞대 볼 수 있으므로 끝에서 H 를 뺀다.\n /\nasync function gapWindow(domainId: string, instanceId: string, H: number): Promise<{ t0: number; lastVantage: number } \| null> {\n /\n * ── 양 끝을 집계로 묻는다 (2026-08-28) ──────────────────────────────────\n \n 예전에는 `findOne({ where: { domain: { id } }, order: { eventTime } })` 두 번이었다. 관계를 가진\n * 엔티티에서 `findOne` 은 두 단계 질의가 되고 안쪽에 상한이 없다 — 그 트윈의 저널을 전부 만든 뒤\n * 한 줄을 고른다. 승화푸드는 337만 행이고, 그것을 두 번 했다.\n \n `MIN`/`MAX` 는 `(domain, instance, event_time)` 색인의 양 끝을 집으므로 각각 한 줄이다.\n * 이 파일의 다른 자리와 같은 규율이다(§`twin-engine` 의 `tipOf`).\n /\n const repo = getRepository(TwinEvent)\n const edge = (agg: 'MIN' \| 'MAX') =>\n repo\n .createQueryBuilder('e')\n .select(`${agg}(e.eventTime)`, 'at')\n .where('e.domain = :domainId', { domainId })\n .andWhere('e.instanceId = :instanceId', { instanceId })\n .getRawOne<{ at: unknown }>()\n const [firstRow, lastRow] = await Promise.all([edge('MIN'), edge('MAX')])\n / 드라이버가 준 값은 시간대가 없을 수 있다 — 컬럼 변환을 지나게 한다(§`hydratedDate`). /\n const first = hydratedDate(repo, 'eventTime', firstRow?.at)\n const last = hydratedDate(repo, 'eventTime', lastRow?.at)\n if (!first \|\| !last) return null\n const t0 = first.getTime()\n const lastVantage = last.getTime() - H\n return lastVantage > t0 ? { t0, lastVantage } : null\n}\n\n/\n 갭 point 계산(공용) — 주어진 vantage 각각에서 forecast-at-T vs actual-at-T+H(결정적 백테스트).\n \n vantage 는 밖에서 준다. 예전에는 이 함수가 자기 저널의 첫·마지막 이벤트로 격자를 스스로 만들었다.\n * 그러면 트윈마다 격자가 달라져, 공동배치 합산에서 `points[3]` 끼리 더할 때 서로 다른 시각의 값이\n * 더해졌다(자세한 사연은 `aggregatePoints` 주석).\n \n 반환 배열은 격자와 같은 길이이고, 그 vantage 를 재지 못했으면 그 자리에 `null` 을 둔다.\n * 건너뛰고 밀어 담으면 배열 인덱스가 시간축이기를 그만둔다.\n /\nasync function gapPoints(domainId: string, instanceId: string, m: (s: any) => number, H: number, grid: number[], scen: any): Promise<(any \| null)[]> {\n const points: (any \| null)[] = []\n for (const T of grid) {\n const k = await TwinEngine.buildForecastKernelAt(domainId, instanceId, new Date(T).toISOString()).catch(() => null)\n if (!k) { points.push(null); continue }\n const dist = await monteCarloForecastAsync(k, { runs: 12, horizonMs: H, scenario: scen, tickMs: forecastStepMs(H), metric: m, yieldFn: breather().fn })\n const naive = m(k.getSnapshot())\n const st = await TwinEngine.recover(domainId, instanceId, undefined, new Date(T + H).toISOString()).catch(() => null)\n if (!st) { points.push(null); continue }\n const a = m(st)\n const p50 = dist?.p50 ?? naive\n points.push({ t: T, p50, min: dist?.min ?? p50, max: dist?.max ?? p50, actual: a, error: a - p50, inBand: a >= (dist?.min ?? -Infinity) && a <= (dist?.max ?? Infinity), naiveAbsError: Math.abs(a - naive), modelAbsError: Math.abs(a - p50) })\n }\n return points\n}\n\n/\n 여러 트윈이 함께 백테스트할 수 있는 구간과 그 위의 vantage 격자.\n \n 겹치는 구간은 각자의 구간을 교집합한 것 — 시작은 가장 늦은 t0, 끝은 가장 이른 lastVantage.\n * 한 트윈이라도 그 시각에 저널이 없으면 공장 총량을 말할 수 없기 때문이다.\n * 겹치는 구간이 없으면 `null` — \"0\" 이 아니라 \"잴 수 없음\" 이다.\n /\nfunction sharedGrid(windows: { t0: number; lastVantage: number }[], N: number): number[] \| null {\n if (!windows.length \|\| N < 2) return null\n const t0 = Math.max(...windows.map(w => w.t0))\n const lastVantage = Math.min(...windows.map(w => w.lastVantage))\n if (!(lastVantage > t0)) return null\n return Array.from({ length: N }, (_, i) => t0 + ((lastVantage - t0) i) / (N - 1))\n}\n\n@Resolver()\nexport class TwinForecastQuery {\n @Query(returns => ScalarObject, {\n nullable: true,\n description: 'Monte-Carlo forecast of a metric over a horizon (twin prediction faculty) + a single-fork predicted trajectory. Live instance is untouched (forks are isolated).'\n })\n async twinForecast(\n @Arg('instanceId') instanceId: string,\n @Arg('metric', { nullable: true }) metric: string,\n @Arg('runs', type => Int, { nullable: true }) runs: number,\n @Arg('horizonMs', type => Int, { nullable: true }) horizonMs: number,\n @Arg('scenario', type => ScalarObject, { nullable: true }) scenario: any,\n @Arg('at', { nullable: true }) at: string,\n @Ctx() context: ResolverContext\n ): Promise<any> {\n /* vantage(at) 기준 예측 — 히스토리 노브가 과거 T 면 \"그때 서서 본 미래\"(백테스트).\n at 있으면 T 시점 커널을 저널로 재구성한다(그건 우회가 아니라 시간여행의 본질).\n 없으면 지금 그 커널을 쓴다 — sim 이든 live 든 인스턴스가 커널이다(통합 P2). /\n const domainId = context.state.domain.id\n const k = at\n ? await TwinEngine.buildForecastKernelAt(domainId, instanceId, at)\n : TwinEngine.owns(domainId, instanceId)\n ? TwinEngine.kernel(domainId, instanceId)\n : undefined\n if (!k) return null\n\n const m = metricFn(metric)\n / 이 트윈이 못 세는 지표 — 빈 예측이 아니라 「그 지표는 여기 없다」고 말한다. /\n if (!m) return { metric, unsupportedMetric: true, distribution: null, trajectory: [] }\n const H = horizonMs ?? 300000\n const R = runs ?? 30\n /\n * 틱 크기는 지평선이 정한다(`forecast-tuning`). 1초 고정이던 시절 5분 지평선이 회차마다\n * 300틱이었고, 30회차면 9,000틱·28.5초였다 — 실측으로 5초 단위와 답이 같다.\n /\n const step = forecastStepMs(H)\n const scen = scenario ?? DEFAULT_SCENARIO\n\n /\n * 분포: N개 확률적 미래 표본(fork 마다 seed 변주, 원본 보존).\n \n 이것이 요청 처리 중 메인 이벤트 루프에서 동기로 수행된다. 기본값으로 fork 30개 × 300틱 = 9,000틱.\n * 계기판에 남겨 두지 않으면 \"왜 서버가 굳었나\" 를 나중에 짚을 수 없다(실제로 한 번 겪었다).\n /\n const tMc = performance.now()\n const mcBreath = breather()\n const distribution = await monteCarloForecastAsync(k, { runs: R, horizonMs: H, scenario: scen, tickMs: step, metric: m, yieldFn: mcBreath.fn })\n TwinEngine.recordLoad(domainId, instanceId, 'forecast', performance.now() - tMc - mcBreath.ms)\n TwinEngine.countForks(domainId, instanceId, R)\n\n / 학습된 보정 상시 적용(P3.2) — twinLearnCalibration 이 저장한 편향·밴드가 있으면 예측을 현실로 보정(라이브가 실제로 나아짐).\n 갭트렌드(gapPoints)는 raw 모델을 그대로 측정(학습 신호 보존) — 보정은 표시용 forecast 에만. /\n const stored = CALIBRATION.get(calKey(domainId, instanceId, metric ?? 'items', H))\n /\n * 배운 모델에만 적용한다. 보정은 \"그때 모델이 이만큼 치우쳐 있다\" 를 배운 것이다. 소요시간\n * 추정기(실측·거리)나 공정 명세가 바뀌어 모델이 달라지면 그 편향은 더 이상 사실이 아니고, 그대로\n * 밀어 주면 이중 보정이 된다. 그래서 지문을 비교하고, 다르면 적용하지 않되 *그 사실을 응답에\n 싣는다** — 오류 없이 사라지면 사용자는 학습이 왜 안 듣는지 알 수 없다(다시 배우면 된다).\n * 지문을 알 수 없을 때는 비교하지 않는다(모르는 것을 근거로 보정을 끊지 않는다).\n /\n const basis = await TwinEngine.modelBasis(domainId, instanceId)\n const stale = !!stored && modelBasisChanged(stored.basis, basis)\n if (stale) {\n twinLog(\n `[twin-forecast] \"${instanceId}\": calibration not applied — model changed since it was learned.` +\n ` learned on: ${describeModelBasis(stored!.basis)} / now: ${describeModelBasis(basis)}`\n )\n }\n /\n * 분위수 — 표본에서 직접 뽑는다.\n \n 커널이 표본 배열을 그대로 돌려주므로(forecast.ts) 여기서 정렬해 p05·p95 를 낸다. 이것이 없으면\n * 화면이 보여 줄 수 있는 폭은 관측 최소·최대 뿐인데, 그건 신뢰구간이 아니라 극단값 두 개다.\n * \"운이 나쁜 5% 에서는 이만큼\" 이라고 말하려면 분위수여야 한다. 표본이 적으면(runs 가 작으면)\n * 분위수도 거칠다 — 그래서 표본 수를 함께 싣는다(sampleCount). 숫자만 주고 근거를 감추지 않는다.\n /\n if (distribution) {\n const samples: number[] = Array.isArray(distribution.samples) ? distribution.samples : []\n if (samples.length) {\n const sorted = [...samples].sort((a, b) => a - b)\n const pct = (p: number) => sorted[Math.min(sorted.length - 1, Math.floor(p sorted.length))]\n distribution.p05 = pct(0.05)\n distribution.p95 = pct(0.95)\n }\n distribution.sampleCount = samples.length\n }\n\n const cal = stored && !stale ? stored : undefined\n if (cal && distribution) {\n /\n `p50` 은 커널 계약상 항상 있다(`MonteCarloResult.p50: number`). 그래도 메우지 않는다 —\n * 예전에는 `?? 0` 이었는데, 만약 비면 보정된 p50 이 편향값 그 자체가 되고 min·max 는\n * 그 둘레로 그려진다. 예측이 아닌 숫자가 예측의 자리에 앉는데 아무 신호가 없다.\n /\n if (typeof distribution.p50 !== 'number') throw new Error('forecast distribution has no p50 — kernel contract broken')\n const p50c = distribution.p50 + cal.biasShift\n distribution.p50 = Math.round(p50c)\n distribution.min = Math.round(p50c - cal.halfWidth)\n distribution.max = Math.round(p50c + cal.halfWidth)\n /\n * 분위수는 옮기기만 한다. 보정이 배운 것은 \"모델이 이만큼 치우쳐 있다\"(위치)이지 분포의\n * 모양이 아니다. p50 처럼 밀어 두어야 p05~p95 폭이 표본이 말한 그대로 남는다.\n * (min·max 는 위에서 학습 밴드로 대체된다 — 보정이 걸리면 그 둘의 뜻이 '관측 극단' 에서\n * '학습 밴드' 로 바뀐다는 뜻이다. 화면이 둘을 같은 것으로 그리면 안 된다.)\n /\n if (distribution.p05 !== undefined) distribution.p05 = Math.round(distribution.p05 + cal.biasShift)\n if (distribution.p95 !== undefined) distribution.p95 = Math.round(distribution.p95 + cal.biasShift)\n if (distribution.p90 !== undefined) distribution.p90 = Math.round(distribution.p90 + cal.biasShift)\n distribution.calibrated = true\n }\n\n /\n * 예측 궤적(예측선): 단일 fork 를 horizon 까지 실행하며 지표 기록. 이것도 잰다.\n \n 여기도 자리를 내준다 — 실측으로 이 한 회차가 1.3초였다(300틱 + 스냅샷 300번). 분포만큼은\n * 아니지만, 라이브 틱 간격(1초)보다 길게 붙잡으면 그 사이 트윈들이 한 박자씩 밀린다.\n /\n const tTraj = performance.now()\n const trajBreath = breather()\n const fc = k.fork()\n fc.scenario.load({ ...scen, seed: 1 })\n fc.scenario.start()\n const trajectory: { t: number; value: number }[] = []\n for (let t = 0; t < H; t += step) {\n fc.tick(step)\n trajectory.push({ t: t + step, value: m(fc.getSnapshot()) })\n / 틱마다 내주면 양보 자체가 비용이 된다 — 라이브 틱 간격보다 훨씬 짧은 단위로 끊는다. /\n if (trajectory.length % 25 === 0) await trajBreath.fn()\n }\n\n TwinEngine.recordLoad(domainId, instanceId, 'forkTick', performance.now() - tTraj - trajBreath.ms)\n TwinEngine.countForks(domainId, instanceId, 1)\n\n const current = m(k.getSnapshot()) // vantage T 의 실제값(= naive '그대로 유지' 예측의 기준)\n\n / 실측 오버레이 + 채점(P1) — vantage 가 과거(at)일 때만: T 이후 실제로 일어난 metric 을 T→min(now,T+H) 로 샘플.\n 현재 이후는 실측이 없음(미래). recover(T+t) 로 각 샘플 상태 재구성해 metric 추출. 비용=샘플 수 만큼 replay. /\n const actual: { t: number; value: number }[] = []\n let scored: any = null\n if (at) {\n const T = Date.parse(at)\n const endMs = Math.min(Date.now(), T + H)\n const span = endMs - T\n if (Number.isFinite(T) && span > 0) {\n const SAMPLES = 8\n const dt = span / SAMPLES\n for (let i = 1; i <= SAMPLES; i++) {\n const st = await TwinEngine.recover(domainId, instanceId, undefined, new Date(T + i dt).toISOString()).catch(() => null)\n if (st) actual.push({ t: i * dt, value: m(st) })\n }\n /* 지평선이 지났으면(T+H ≤ now) 그 지점 실측 vs 예측 채점(단일 vantage). p50 대비 오차·밴드 적중·FVA(naive=현재값 유지 대비). /\n if (T + H <= Date.now() && actual.length) {\n const a = actual[actual.length - 1].value\n const p50 = distribution?.p50 ?? current\n scored = {\n actual: a,\n p50,\n error: a - p50, // 부호 = 편향 방향(+ 실제가 더 많음)\n inBand: a >= (distribution?.min ?? -Infinity) && a <= (distribution?.max ?? Infinity),\n modelAbsError: Math.abs(a - p50),\n naiveAbsError: Math.abs(a - current) // naive = \"그대로 유지\"(현재값). FVA = naive - model\n }\n }\n }\n }\n\n /\n * 시뮬 명세 자기보고를 함께 낸다 — *상수로 계산한 예측과 현장 명세로 계산한 예측이 화면에서 같아\n 보이지 않게.** 코드·수치만 싣고 사람이 읽는 문장은 클라가 만든다(언어 중립).\n * 커널이 이 API 를 갖지 않은 버전이면 키를 만들지 않는다(모르는 것을 \"전부 기본값\" 이라 단정 금지).\n /\n / 보고는 실제로 실행한 fork 에서 읽는다 — 부모 커널(k)은 tick 하지 않으므로(예측은 fork 에서\n * 수행된다) 부모에서 읽으면 씨앗으로 세운 예측에서는 늘 비어 있다. 숫자를 낸 주체가 보고해야 한다. /\n const specCoverage = readSpecCoverage(fc) ?? readSpecCoverage(k)\n return {\n metric: metric ?? 'items', horizonMs: H, runs: R, current, distribution, trajectory, actual, scored,\n / 얼마나 잘게 굴렸나 — 숫자만 주고 근거를 감추지 않는다(같은 규율로 `specCoverage` 도 싣는다). /\n tickMs: step,\n /\n * 가정이 어떻게 됐나 — 걸린 개입·거절된 개입·덮어쓴 선언.\n \n 이것을 감추면 두 가지가 들어온 것이 없어진다: 걸리지 않은 가정(「걸었는데 왜 안 바뀌나」)과, 덮어쓴\n * 선언(사용자가 what-if 결과를 트윈의 현재 상태로 읽는다). 실제로 실행한 fork(`fc`)에서 읽는다 —\n * 가정을 겪은 것은 그쪽이다.\n /\n ...(typeof (fc as any).interventionOutcomes === 'function'\n ? (() => {\n const outcomes = (fc as any).interventionOutcomes()\n return outcomes.length ? { interventions: outcomes } : {}\n })()\n : {}),\n ...(typeof (fc as any).declarationOverrides === 'function'\n ? (() => {\n const overrides = (fc as any).declarationOverrides()\n return overrides.length ? { overrides } : {}\n })()\n : {}),\n calibrated: !!cal,\n / 학습해 뒀지만 모델이 바뀌어 적용하지 않았다 — 사용자가 다시 배울 수 있게 알린다. /\n ...(stale ? { calibrationStale: true } : {}),\n ...(specCoverage ? { specCoverage } : {}),\n /\n * 계보에 구멍이 몇 칸 생겼나 — 개체를 잇지 못한 채 넘어간 공정 수.\n \n ── 왜 이 값을 예측 응답에 싣나 (2026-08-24) ──────────────────────────────\n * 미러의 오더는 확보분을 갖지 않는다(원본이 「어느 개체가 잡혀 있나」를 말하지 않는 것이 그\n * 시스템의 정상이다). 커널은 그 자리에서 던지지 않고 넘긴다 — 단계를 넘는 것은 공정의\n * 진행이고 개체 번호가 필요 없다. 대신 넘긴 횟수를 센다.\n \n 그런데 그 카운터는 fork 안에 있고 fork 는 버려진다. 여기서 싣지 않으면 아무에게도 닿지\n * 않는다 — 리듀서가 오래 세어 온 값을 스냅샷이 떨어뜨려 그것을 읽도록 쓰인 검사가 영원히\n * 아무 신호도 내지 않았던 것과 같은 실수다. 세어 놓고 내보내지 않으면 안 센 것과 같다.\n \n 왜 화면이 이것을 알아야 하나: 계보는 회수 범위를 정하는 사슬이다. 구멍이 있는데 온전한\n * 것처럼 보이면 회수가 알리지 않고 좁아진다. 식품에서 그것은 되돌릴 수 없다.\n \n 두 곳에서 읽어 큰 값을 낸다 — 분포(회차 R개의 최대)와 궤적 fork 는 둘 다 실제로 실행됐다.\n * 한쪽만 보면 다른 쪽이 겪은 구멍을 잃는다.\n /\n ...(() => {\n const gaps = Math.max(\n (distribution as any)?.stepsWithoutMaterial ?? 0,\n (fc as any)?.getSnapshot?.()?.stepsWithoutMaterial ?? 0\n )\n / 0 은 싣지 않는다 — 「구멍이 없다」와 「이 축을 모른다」를 화면이 구별할 수 있게. /\n return gaps > 0 ? { stepsWithoutMaterial: gaps } : {}\n })()\n }\n }\n\n /\n * 갭 트렌드(P2) — N개 과거 vantage 각각에서 \"그때 예측 vs 그 지평선의 실제\"를 재계산(결정적 백테스트).\n * 지평선이 이미 지난 vantage 만([t0, tLast−H]) → actual 확정. 온디맨드 재계산(누적/영속은 긴 기간용 후속 최적화).\n * 비용 = N × (buildForecastKernelAt replay + monteCarlo + recover replay). N·runs 를 낮게 bound. per-instance(클라가 co-located 합산).\n /\n @Query(returns => ScalarObject, {\n nullable: true,\n description:\n 'Forecast-accuracy gap diagnosis (canonical, server-computed): for N past vantages recompute forecast-at-T vs actual-at-T+h (deterministic backtest), aggregate co-located instances, and return points + SPC verdict (stability/bias) + metrics (accuracy/coverage/FVA) + learned-calibration projection. Client only renders.'\n })\n async twinForecastGapTrend(\n @Arg('instanceId') instanceId: string,\n @Arg('metric', { nullable: true }) metric: string,\n @Arg('horizonMs', type => Int, { nullable: true }) horizonMs: number,\n @Arg('samples', type => Int, { nullable: true }) samples: number,\n @Arg('scenario', type => ScalarObject, { nullable: true }) scenario: any,\n @Ctx() context: ResolverContext,\n @Arg('instanceIds', type => [String], { nullable: true }) instanceIds?: string[]\n ): Promise<any> {\n const domainId = context.state.domain.id\n const m = metricFn(metric)\n const H = horizonMs ?? 300000\n if (!m) return { metric, unsupportedMetric: true, horizonMs: H, samples: 0, points: [], spc: computeSpc([]), metrics: null, learn: null }\n const N = Math.min(30, Math.max(2, samples ?? GAP_SAMPLES)) // 표본은 서버가 관장(SPC 신뢰 하한 ~20).\n const scen = scenario ?? DEFAULT_SCENARIO\n // 공동배치(co-located) 집계도 서버에서 — 공장 단위 진단이 canonical. 미지정 시 단건.\n const ids = instanceIds?.length ? instanceIds : [instanceId]\n\n /\n * 격자를 먼저 하나 만든다. 트윈마다 자기 저널로 격자를 만들면 같은 인덱스가 서로 다른\n * 시각이 되어, 합산이 다른 시점의 값을 더한다(`aggregatePoints` 주석 참조).\n \n 저널이 없거나 지평 H 를 담을 만큼 길지 않은 트윈은 백테스트에 참여할 수 없다. 그런 트윈은\n * 빼되 누구를 뺐는지 돌려준다 — 알리지 않고 빼면 화면은 그 트윈까지 포함한 공장 총량으로 읽는다.\n /\n const windows = await Promise.all(ids.map(async id => ({ id, w: await gapWindow(domainId, id, H) })))\n const usable = windows.filter(x => x.w)\n const excluded = windows.filter(x => !x.w).map(x => x.id)\n const grid = sharedGrid(usable.map(x => x.w!), N)\n if (!grid) {\n / 겹치는 구간이 없다 — 잴 수 없는 것이지 정확도가 0 인 것이 아니다. /\n return { metric: metric ?? 'items', horizonMs: H, samples: N, points: [], spc: computeSpc([]), metrics: null, learn: null,\n coverage: { instances: ids.length, measured: 0, excluded, vantages: N, used: 0, dropped: 0, reason: 'no-common-window' } }\n }\n\n const per = await Promise.all(usable.map(x => gapPoints(domainId, x.id, m, H, grid, scen)))\n const { points, droppedVantages } = aggregatePoints(per as (GapPoint \| null)[][])\n const metrics = points.length ? gapMetrics(points) : null\n const spc = computeSpc(points.map(p => p.error))\n const learn = metrics ? learnedCalibration(points, metrics) : null\n return { metric: metric ?? 'items', horizonMs: H, samples: N, points, spc, metrics, learn,\n / 이 숫자가 무엇으로 계산됐는지. 24점 중 18점이면 화면이 그렇게 말해야 한다. /\n coverage: { instances: ids.length, measured: usable.length, excluded, vantages: N, used: points.length, dropped: droppedVantages } }\n }\n\n /\n * 학습(P3.2) — 갭에서 편향·밴드를 학습해 저장하면, 이후 twinForecast 가 상시 적용(라이브 예측이 실제로 보정됨).\n * assimilation-lite: 잔차(innovation)를 되먹여 추정치를 현실로. per-instance(클라가 co-located 합산).\n * 반환: 학습된 보정 + before/after 정확도(효과 정량화). 저장은 인메모리(세션) — DB 영속은 후속.\n /\n @Directive('@privilege(category: \"twin\", privilege: \"mutation\", domainOwnerGranted: true, superUserGranted: true)')\n @Mutation(returns => ScalarObject, { description: 'Learn a forecast calibration (bias + band) from the gap trend and persist it so future forecasts apply it. Returns the calibration + before/after accuracy.' })\n async twinLearnCalibration(\n @Arg('instanceId') instanceId: string,\n @Arg('metric', { nullable: true }) metric: string,\n @Arg('horizonMs', type => Int, { nullable: true }) horizonMs: number,\n @Ctx() context: ResolverContext,\n @Arg('clear', type => Boolean, { nullable: true }) clear?: boolean\n ): Promise<any> {\n const domainId = context.state.domain.id\n if (!TwinEngine.owns(domainId, instanceId)) return { ok: false } // 테넌트 격리\n const m = metricFn(metric)\n if (!m) return { ok: false, reason: 'unsupported-metric', metric }\n const H = horizonMs ?? 300000\n // 보정 해제 — 저장된 calibration 제거(이후 예측은 raw 로 복귀). 학습을 되돌리는 정직한 off 스위치.\n if (clear) {\n CALIBRATION.delete(calKey(domainId, instanceId, metric ?? 'items', H))\n return { ok: true, cleared: true, metric: metric ?? 'items', horizonMs: H }\n }\n // 표본·계산을 gap-analytics 로 일원화(gapTrend 진단과 동일 N·동일 수식 → 카드 예상치와 실제 보정 일치).\n / 학습은 단건이라 격자도 이 트윈의 구간 하나다. 저널이 지평 H 를 담을 만큼 길지 않으면 배울 것이 없다. /\n const w = await gapWindow(domainId, instanceId, H)\n const grid = w ? sharedGrid([w], GAP_SAMPLES) : null\n if (!grid) return { ok: false, reason: 'insufficient-history' }\n / 못 잰 vantage 는 `null` 로 온다 — 0 으로 세면 편향 학습이 그만큼 끌려간다. /\n const pts = (await gapPoints(domainId, instanceId, m, H, grid, DEFAULT_SCENARIO)).filter(Boolean) as GapPoint[]\n if (pts.length < 3) return { ok: false, reason: 'insufficient-history' }\n const learn = learnedCalibration(pts, gapMetrics(pts))\n / 학습한 모델의 지문을 함께 남긴다 — 이후 모델이 바뀌면 이 보정은 적용되지 않는다. */\n const basis = await TwinEngine.modelBasis(domainId, instanceId)\n const cal = {\n biasShift: learn.biasShift,\n halfWidth: learn.halfWidth,\n at: '',\n samples: pts.length,\n accBefore: learn.accBefore,\n accAfter: learn.accAfter,\n ...(basis ? { basis } : {})\n }\n CALIBRATION.set(calKey(domainId, instanceId, metric ?? 'items', H), cal)\n return { ok: true, metric: metric ?? 'items', horizonMs: H, biasShift: cal.biasShift, halfWidth: cal.halfWidth, samples: pts.length, accBefore: cal.accBefore, accAfter: cal.accAfter }\n }\n}\n"]}
1	+ 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{ twinLog } from '../../engine/log.js'\nimport { hydratedDate } from '../../engine/read-time.js'\nimport { Arg, Ctx, Int, Mutation, Query, Resolver, Directive} from 'type-graphql'\n\nimport { getRepository, ScalarObject } from '@things-factory/shell'\n\nimport { TwinEngine } from '../../engine/index.js'\nimport { readSpecCoverage } from '../../engine/spec-coverage.js'\nimport { describeModelBasis, modelBasisChanged, type ModelBasis } from '../../engine/model-basis.js'\nimport { TwinEvent } from '../twin-event/twin-event.js'\nimport { GAP_SAMPLES, aggregatePoints, computeSpc, gapMetrics, learnedCalibration, type GapPoint } from './gap-analytics.js'\nimport { FORECAST_METRICS, type MetricFn } from './forecast-metrics.js'\nimport { forecastStepMs } from './forecast-tuning.js'\n\n/* 커널 예측 함수 — CJS require(twin-engine 과 동일 방식). /\nconst { monteCarloForecastAsync } = require('@operato/twin-kernel')\n\n/\n 이벤트 루프에 자리를 내주는 방법 — 커널이 아니라 여기가 안다.\n \n `setImmediate` 는 대기 중인 I/O 다음 차례에 돌아온다. 마이크로태스크(`Promise.resolve()`)로는\n * 자리가 가지 않는다 — 그러면 예측이 도는 동안 라이브 틱도 HTTP 도 여전히 멈춘다.\n \n ── 내준 시간은 부하가 아니다 ───────────────────────────────────────────\n * 부하 계기는 「이 트윈이 루프를 얼마나 붙잡았나」를 재는 자다. 양보를 넣은 뒤로 벽시계 시간에는\n * 남에게 넘긴 시간이 섞이는데, 그것까지 부하로 적으면 계기가 거짓말을 한다 — 하필 이 문제를 짚어낸\n * 그 계기다. 그래서 내준 시간을 따로 세어 빼고 적는다.\n /\nfunction breather() {\n let yieldedMs = 0\n return {\n fn: () =>\n new Promise<void>(resolve => {\n const t = performance.now()\n setImmediate(() => {\n yieldedMs += performance.now() - t\n resolve()\n })\n }),\n get ms() {\n return yieldedMs\n }\n }\n}\n\n/\n * 트윈 예측 채널 — 상향 query. 트윈의 \"예측(predict)\" 면(설계 §3.5, ADR-0009).\n * 커널 monteCarloForecast(현재에서 N fork → 지표 분포) + 단일 fork 예측 궤적. 원본 live 무간섭(fork 격리).\n * metric 은 도메인-일반(스냅샷 파생), scenario 는 미래 자극(기본=계속 입고, 실 시스템은 인스턴스/설정 파생).\n /\nconst GTIN = 'urn:epc:idpat:sgtin:0614141.012345.'\nconst DEFAULT_SCENARIO = {\n seed: 7,\n generators: [\n { kind: 'inbound-arrival', rate: { distribution: 'poisson', meanPerHour: 60 }, content: { skuMix: [{ gtin: GTIN, weight: 1 }], qtyPerLine: { min: 4, max: 12 } } }\n ]\n}\n/\n 지표 표는 `forecast-metrics.ts` 가 소유한다 — 여기 있던 것을 옮겼다(시험이 이 파일을 불러올 수 없다).\n \n 모르는 지표를 `items` 로 갈음하지 않는다. 예전에는 `METRICS[metric] ?? METRICS.items` 였다.\n * 에너지 트윈에서 `peakKW` 를 물으면 재고 곡선이 그려지고, 재고가 없으니 0 이 평평하게 나왔다 —\n * 화면은 그것을 「피크가 0」으로 읽는다. 지어낸 답보다 모른다고 말하는 편이 낫다.\n /\nfunction metricFn(metric?: string): MetricFn \| null {\n if (!metric) return FORECAST_METRICS.items\n return FORECAST_METRICS[metric] ?? null\n}\n\n/ 학습된 보정 저장(P3.2, 인메모리) — key=domain:instance:metric:horizon → {biasShift, halfWidth, …}.\n twinLearnCalibration 이 갭에서 학습해 저장하고, twinForecast 가 있으면 예측에 상시 적용(라이브 보정).\n 데모 트윈은 재부팅 시 저널 리셋이라 세션 스코프로 충분 — DB 영속(TwinForecastScore)은 후속. /\nconst CALIBRATION = new Map<\n string,\n { biasShift: number; halfWidth: number; at: string; samples: number; accBefore: number \| null; accAfter: number \| null; basis?: ModelBasis }\n>()\nconst calKey = (d: string, i: string, m: string, h: number) => `${d}:${i}:${m}:${h}`\n\n/\n 이 트윈이 백테스트할 수 있는 구간 — [첫 이벤트, 마지막 이벤트 − H].\n * 지평 H 만큼 앞을 봐야 \"그때 예측한 것\"과 \"실제로 벌어진 것\"을 맞대 볼 수 있으므로 끝에서 H 를 뺀다.\n /\nasync function gapWindow(domainId: string, instanceId: string, H: number): Promise<{ t0: number; lastVantage: number } \| null> {\n /\n * ── 양 끝을 집계로 묻는다 (2026-08-28) ──────────────────────────────────\n \n 예전에는 `findOne({ where: { domain: { id } }, order: { eventTime } })` 두 번이었다. 관계를 가진\n * 엔티티에서 `findOne` 은 두 단계 질의가 되고 안쪽에 상한이 없다 — 그 트윈의 저널을 전부 만든 뒤\n * 한 줄을 고른다. 승화푸드는 337만 행이고, 그것을 두 번 했다.\n \n `MIN`/`MAX` 는 `(domain, instance, event_time)` 색인의 양 끝을 집으므로 각각 한 줄이다.\n * 이 파일의 다른 자리와 같은 규율이다(§`twin-engine` 의 `tipOf`).\n /\n const repo = getRepository(TwinEvent)\n const edge = (agg: 'MIN' \| 'MAX') =>\n repo\n .createQueryBuilder('e')\n .select(`${agg}(e.eventTime)`, 'at')\n .where('e.domain = :domainId', { domainId })\n .andWhere('e.instanceId = :instanceId', { instanceId })\n .getRawOne<{ at: unknown }>()\n const [firstRow, lastRow] = await Promise.all([edge('MIN'), edge('MAX')])\n / 드라이버가 준 값은 시간대가 없을 수 있다 — 컬럼 변환을 지나게 한다(§`hydratedDate`). /\n const first = hydratedDate(repo, 'eventTime', firstRow?.at)\n const last = hydratedDate(repo, 'eventTime', lastRow?.at)\n if (!first \|\| !last) return null\n const t0 = first.getTime()\n const lastVantage = last.getTime() - H\n return lastVantage > t0 ? { t0, lastVantage } : null\n}\n\n/\n 갭 point 계산(공용) — 주어진 vantage 각각에서 forecast-at-T vs actual-at-T+H(결정적 백테스트).\n \n vantage 는 밖에서 준다. 예전에는 이 함수가 자기 저널의 첫·마지막 이벤트로 격자를 스스로 만들었다.\n * 그러면 트윈마다 격자가 달라져, 공동배치 합산에서 `points[3]` 끼리 더할 때 서로 다른 시각의 값이\n * 더해졌다(자세한 사연은 `aggregatePoints` 주석).\n \n 반환 배열은 격자와 같은 길이이고, 그 vantage 를 재지 못했으면 그 자리에 `null` 을 둔다.\n * 건너뛰고 밀어 담으면 배열 인덱스가 시간축이기를 그만둔다.\n /\nasync function gapPoints(domainId: string, instanceId: string, m: (s: any) => number, H: number, grid: number[], scen: any): Promise<(any \| null)[]> {\n const points: (any \| null)[] = []\n for (const T of grid) {\n const k = await TwinEngine.buildForecastKernelAt(domainId, instanceId, new Date(T).toISOString()).catch(() => null)\n if (!k) { points.push(null); continue }\n const dist = await monteCarloForecastAsync(k, { runs: 12, horizonMs: H, scenario: scen, tickMs: forecastStepMs(H), metric: m, yieldFn: breather().fn })\n const naive = m(k.getSnapshot())\n const st = await TwinEngine.recover(domainId, instanceId, undefined, new Date(T + H).toISOString()).catch(() => null)\n if (!st) { points.push(null); continue }\n const a = m(st)\n const p50 = dist?.p50 ?? naive\n points.push({ t: T, p50, min: dist?.min ?? p50, max: dist?.max ?? p50, actual: a, error: a - p50, inBand: a >= (dist?.min ?? -Infinity) && a <= (dist?.max ?? Infinity), naiveAbsError: Math.abs(a - naive), modelAbsError: Math.abs(a - p50) })\n }\n return points\n}\n\n/\n 여러 트윈이 함께 백테스트할 수 있는 구간과 그 위의 vantage 격자.\n \n 겹치는 구간은 각자의 구간을 교집합한 것 — 시작은 가장 늦은 t0, 끝은 가장 이른 lastVantage.\n * 한 트윈이라도 그 시각에 저널이 없으면 공장 총량을 말할 수 없기 때문이다.\n * 겹치는 구간이 없으면 `null` — \"0\" 이 아니라 \"잴 수 없음\" 이다.\n /\nfunction sharedGrid(windows: { t0: number; lastVantage: number }[], N: number): number[] \| null {\n if (!windows.length \|\| N < 2) return null\n const t0 = Math.max(...windows.map(w => w.t0))\n const lastVantage = Math.min(...windows.map(w => w.lastVantage))\n if (!(lastVantage > t0)) return null\n return Array.from({ length: N }, (_, i) => t0 + ((lastVantage - t0) i) / (N - 1))\n}\n\n@Resolver()\nexport class TwinForecastQuery {\n @Query(returns => ScalarObject, {\n nullable: true,\n description: 'Monte-Carlo forecast of a metric over a horizon (twin prediction faculty) + a single-fork predicted trajectory. Live instance is untouched (forks are isolated).'\n })\n async twinForecast(\n @Arg('instanceId') instanceId: string,\n @Arg('metric', { nullable: true }) metric: string,\n @Arg('runs', type => Int, { nullable: true }) runs: number,\n @Arg('horizonMs', type => Int, { nullable: true }) horizonMs: number,\n @Arg('scenario', type => ScalarObject, { nullable: true }) scenario: any,\n @Arg('at', { nullable: true }) at: string,\n @Ctx() context: ResolverContext\n ): Promise<any> {\n /* vantage(at) 기준 예측 — 히스토리 노브가 과거 T 면 \"그때 서서 본 미래\"(백테스트).\n at 있으면 T 시점 커널을 저널로 재구성한다(그건 우회가 아니라 시간여행의 본질).\n 없으면 지금 그 커널을 쓴다 — sim 이든 live 든 인스턴스가 커널이다(통합 P2). /\n const domainId = context.state.domain.id\n const k = at\n ? await TwinEngine.buildForecastKernelAt(domainId, instanceId, at)\n : TwinEngine.owns(domainId, instanceId)\n ? TwinEngine.kernel(domainId, instanceId)\n : undefined\n if (!k) return null\n\n const m = metricFn(metric)\n / 이 트윈이 못 세는 지표 — 빈 예측이 아니라 「그 지표는 여기 없다」고 말한다. /\n if (!m) return { metric, unsupportedMetric: true, distribution: null, trajectory: [] }\n const H = horizonMs ?? 300000\n const R = runs ?? 30\n /\n * 틱 크기는 지평선이 정한다(`forecast-tuning`). 1초 고정이던 시절 5분 지평선이 회차마다\n * 300틱이었고, 30회차면 9,000틱·28.5초였다 — 실측으로 5초 단위와 답이 같다.\n /\n const step = forecastStepMs(H)\n const scen = scenario ?? DEFAULT_SCENARIO\n\n /\n * 분포: N개 확률적 미래 표본(fork 마다 seed 변주, 원본 보존).\n \n 이것이 요청 처리 중 메인 이벤트 루프에서 동기로 수행된다. 기본값으로 fork 30개 × 300틱 = 9,000틱.\n * 계기판에 남겨 두지 않으면 \"왜 서버가 굳었나\" 를 나중에 짚을 수 없다(실제로 한 번 겪었다).\n /\n const tMc = performance.now()\n const mcBreath = breather()\n const distribution = await monteCarloForecastAsync(k, { runs: R, horizonMs: H, scenario: scen, tickMs: step, metric: m, yieldFn: mcBreath.fn })\n TwinEngine.recordLoad(domainId, instanceId, 'forecast', performance.now() - tMc - mcBreath.ms)\n TwinEngine.countForks(domainId, instanceId, R)\n\n / 학습된 보정 상시 적용(P3.2) — twinLearnCalibration 이 저장한 편향·밴드가 있으면 예측을 현실로 보정(라이브가 실제로 나아짐).\n 갭트렌드(gapPoints)는 raw 모델을 그대로 측정(학습 신호 보존) — 보정은 표시용 forecast 에만. /\n const stored = CALIBRATION.get(calKey(domainId, instanceId, metric ?? 'items', H))\n /\n * 배운 모델에만 적용한다. 보정은 \"그때 모델이 이만큼 치우쳐 있다\" 를 배운 것이다. 소요시간\n * 추정기(실측·거리)나 공정 명세가 바뀌어 모델이 달라지면 그 편향은 더 이상 사실이 아니고, 그대로\n * 밀어 주면 이중 보정이 된다. 그래서 지문을 비교하고, 다르면 적용하지 않되 *그 사실을 응답에\n 싣는다** — 오류 없이 사라지면 사용자는 학습이 왜 안 듣는지 알 수 없다(다시 배우면 된다).\n * 지문을 알 수 없을 때는 비교하지 않는다(모르는 것을 근거로 보정을 끊지 않는다).\n /\n const basis = await TwinEngine.modelBasis(domainId, instanceId)\n const stale = !!stored && modelBasisChanged(stored.basis, basis)\n if (stale) {\n twinLog(\n `[twin-forecast] \"${instanceId}\": calibration not applied — model changed since it was learned.` +\n ` learned on: ${describeModelBasis(stored!.basis)} / now: ${describeModelBasis(basis)}`\n )\n }\n /\n * 분위수 — 표본에서 직접 뽑는다.\n \n 커널이 표본 배열을 그대로 돌려주므로(forecast.ts) 여기서 정렬해 p05·p95 를 낸다. 이것이 없으면\n * 화면이 보여 줄 수 있는 폭은 관측 최소·최대 뿐인데, 그건 신뢰구간이 아니라 극단값 두 개다.\n * \"운이 나쁜 5% 에서는 이만큼\" 이라고 말하려면 분위수여야 한다. 표본이 적으면(runs 가 작으면)\n * 분위수도 거칠다 — 그래서 표본 수를 함께 싣는다(sampleCount). 숫자만 주고 근거를 감추지 않는다.\n /\n if (distribution) {\n const samples: number[] = Array.isArray(distribution.samples) ? distribution.samples : []\n if (samples.length) {\n const sorted = [...samples].sort((a, b) => a - b)\n const pct = (p: number) => sorted[Math.min(sorted.length - 1, Math.floor(p sorted.length))]\n distribution.p05 = pct(0.05)\n distribution.p95 = pct(0.95)\n }\n distribution.sampleCount = samples.length\n }\n\n const cal = stored && !stale ? stored : undefined\n if (cal && distribution) {\n /\n `p50` 은 커널 계약상 항상 있다(`MonteCarloResult.p50: number`). 그래도 메우지 않는다 —\n * 예전에는 `?? 0` 이었는데, 만약 비면 보정된 p50 이 편향값 그 자체가 되고 min·max 는\n * 그 둘레로 그려진다. 예측이 아닌 숫자가 예측의 자리에 앉는데 아무 신호가 없다.\n /\n if (typeof distribution.p50 !== 'number') throw new Error('forecast distribution has no p50 — kernel contract broken')\n const p50c = distribution.p50 + cal.biasShift\n distribution.p50 = Math.round(p50c)\n distribution.min = Math.round(p50c - cal.halfWidth)\n distribution.max = Math.round(p50c + cal.halfWidth)\n /\n * 분위수는 옮기기만 한다. 보정이 배운 것은 \"모델이 이만큼 치우쳐 있다\"(위치)이지 분포의\n * 모양이 아니다. p50 처럼 밀어 두어야 p05~p95 폭이 표본이 말한 그대로 남는다.\n * (min·max 는 위에서 학습 밴드로 대체된다 — 보정이 걸리면 그 둘의 뜻이 '관측 극단' 에서\n * '학습 밴드' 로 바뀐다는 뜻이다. 화면이 둘을 같은 것으로 그리면 안 된다.)\n /\n if (distribution.p05 !== undefined) distribution.p05 = Math.round(distribution.p05 + cal.biasShift)\n if (distribution.p95 !== undefined) distribution.p95 = Math.round(distribution.p95 + cal.biasShift)\n if (distribution.p90 !== undefined) distribution.p90 = Math.round(distribution.p90 + cal.biasShift)\n distribution.calibrated = true\n }\n\n /\n * 예측 궤적(예측선): 단일 fork 를 horizon 까지 실행하며 지표 기록. 이것도 잰다.\n \n 여기도 자리를 내준다 — 실측으로 이 한 회차가 1.3초였다(300틱 + 스냅샷 300번). 분포만큼은\n * 아니지만, 라이브 틱 간격(1초)보다 길게 붙잡으면 그 사이 트윈들이 한 박자씩 밀린다.\n /\n const tTraj = performance.now()\n const trajBreath = breather()\n const fc = k.fork()\n fc.scenario.load({ ...scen, seed: 1 })\n fc.scenario.start()\n const trajectory: { t: number; value: number }[] = []\n for (let t = 0; t < H; t += step) {\n fc.tick(step)\n trajectory.push({ t: t + step, value: m(fc.getSnapshot()) })\n / 틱마다 내주면 양보 자체가 비용이 된다 — 라이브 틱 간격보다 훨씬 짧은 단위로 끊는다. /\n if (trajectory.length % 25 === 0) await trajBreath.fn()\n }\n\n TwinEngine.recordLoad(domainId, instanceId, 'forkTick', performance.now() - tTraj - trajBreath.ms)\n TwinEngine.countForks(domainId, instanceId, 1)\n\n const current = m(k.getSnapshot()) // vantage T 의 실제값(= naive '그대로 유지' 예측의 기준)\n\n / 실측 오버레이 + 채점(P1) — vantage 가 과거(at)일 때만: T 이후 실제로 일어난 metric 을 T→min(now,T+H) 로 샘플.\n 현재 이후는 실측이 없음(미래). recover(T+t) 로 각 샘플 상태 재구성해 metric 추출. 비용=샘플 수 만큼 replay. /\n const actual: { t: number; value: number }[] = []\n let scored: any = null\n if (at) {\n const T = Date.parse(at)\n const endMs = Math.min(Date.now(), T + H)\n const span = endMs - T\n if (Number.isFinite(T) && span > 0) {\n const SAMPLES = 8\n const dt = span / SAMPLES\n for (let i = 1; i <= SAMPLES; i++) {\n const st = await TwinEngine.recover(domainId, instanceId, undefined, new Date(T + i dt).toISOString()).catch(() => null)\n if (st) actual.push({ t: i * dt, value: m(st) })\n }\n /* 지평선이 지났으면(T+H ≤ now) 그 지점 실측 vs 예측 채점(단일 vantage). p50 대비 오차·밴드 적중·FVA(naive=현재값 유지 대비). /\n if (T + H <= Date.now() && actual.length) {\n const a = actual[actual.length - 1].value\n const p50 = distribution?.p50 ?? current\n scored = {\n actual: a,\n p50,\n error: a - p50, // 부호 = 편향 방향(+ 실제가 더 많음)\n inBand: a >= (distribution?.min ?? -Infinity) && a <= (distribution?.max ?? Infinity),\n modelAbsError: Math.abs(a - p50),\n naiveAbsError: Math.abs(a - current) // naive = \"그대로 유지\"(현재값). FVA = naive - model\n }\n }\n }\n }\n\n /\n * 시뮬 명세 자기보고를 함께 낸다 — *상수로 계산한 예측과 현장 명세로 계산한 예측이 화면에서 같아\n 보이지 않게.** 코드·수치만 싣고 사람이 읽는 문장은 클라가 만든다(언어 중립).\n * 커널이 이 API 를 갖지 않은 버전이면 키를 만들지 않는다(모르는 것을 \"전부 기본값\" 이라 단정 금지).\n /\n / 보고는 실제로 실행한 fork 에서 읽는다 — 부모 커널(k)은 tick 하지 않으므로(예측은 fork 에서\n * 수행된다) 부모에서 읽으면 씨앗으로 세운 예측에서는 늘 비어 있다. 숫자를 낸 주체가 보고해야 한다. /\n const specCoverage = readSpecCoverage(fc) ?? readSpecCoverage(k)\n return {\n metric: metric ?? 'items', horizonMs: H, runs: R, current, distribution, trajectory, actual, scored,\n / 얼마나 잘게 굴렸나 — 숫자만 주고 근거를 감추지 않는다(같은 규율로 `specCoverage` 도 싣는다). /\n tickMs: step,\n /\n * 가정이 어떻게 됐나 — 걸린 개입·거절된 개입·덮어쓴 선언.\n \n 이것을 감추면 두 가지가 들어온 것이 없어진다: 걸리지 않은 가정(「걸었는데 왜 안 바뀌나」)과, 덮어쓴\n * 선언(사용자가 what-if 결과를 트윈의 현재 상태로 읽는다). 실제로 실행한 fork(`fc`)에서 읽는다 —\n * 가정을 겪은 것은 그쪽이다.\n /\n ...(typeof (fc as any).interventionOutcomes === 'function'\n ? (() => {\n const outcomes = (fc as any).interventionOutcomes()\n return outcomes.length ? { interventions: outcomes } : {}\n })()\n : {}),\n ...(typeof (fc as any).declarationOverrides === 'function'\n ? (() => {\n const overrides = (fc as any).declarationOverrides()\n return overrides.length ? { overrides } : {}\n })()\n : {}),\n calibrated: !!cal,\n / 학습해 뒀지만 모델이 바뀌어 적용하지 않았다 — 사용자가 다시 배울 수 있게 알린다. /\n ...(stale ? { calibrationStale: true } : {}),\n ...(specCoverage ? { specCoverage } : {}),\n /\n * 계보에 구멍이 몇 칸 생겼나 — 개체를 잇지 못한 채 넘어간 공정 수.\n \n ── 왜 이 값을 예측 응답에 싣나 (2026-08-24) ──────────────────────────────\n * 미러의 오더는 확보분을 갖지 않는다(원본이 「어느 개체가 잡혀 있나」를 말하지 않는 것이 그\n * 시스템의 정상이다). 커널은 그 자리에서 던지지 않고 넘긴다 — 단계를 넘는 것은 공정의\n * 진행이고 개체 번호가 필요 없다. 대신 넘긴 횟수를 센다.\n \n 그런데 그 카운터는 fork 안에 있고 fork 는 버려진다. 여기서 싣지 않으면 아무에게도 닿지\n * 않는다 — 리듀서가 오래 세어 온 값을 스냅샷이 떨어뜨려 그것을 읽도록 쓰인 검사가 영원히\n * 아무 신호도 내지 않았던 것과 같은 실수다. 세어 놓고 내보내지 않으면 안 센 것과 같다.\n \n 왜 화면이 이것을 알아야 하나: 계보는 회수 범위를 정하는 사슬이다. 구멍이 있는데 온전한\n * 것처럼 보이면 회수가 알리지 않고 좁아진다. 식품에서 그것은 되돌릴 수 없다.\n \n 두 곳에서 읽어 큰 값을 낸다 — 분포(회차 R개의 최대)와 궤적 fork 는 둘 다 실제로 실행됐다.\n * 한쪽만 보면 다른 쪽이 겪은 구멍을 잃는다.\n /\n ...(() => {\n const gaps = Math.max(\n (distribution as any)?.stepsWithoutMaterial ?? 0,\n (fc as any)?.getSnapshot?.()?.stepsWithoutMaterial ?? 0\n )\n / 0 은 싣지 않는다 — 「구멍이 없다」와 「이 축을 모른다」를 화면이 구별할 수 있게. /\n return gaps > 0 ? { stepsWithoutMaterial: gaps } : {}\n })()\n }\n }\n\n /\n * 갭 트렌드(P2) — N개 과거 vantage 각각에서 \"그때 예측 vs 그 지평선의 실제\"를 재계산(결정적 백테스트).\n * 지평선이 이미 지난 vantage 만([t0, tLast−H]) → actual 확정. 온디맨드 재계산(누적/영속은 긴 기간용 후속 최적화).\n * 비용 = N × (buildForecastKernelAt replay + monteCarlo + recover replay). N·runs 를 낮게 bound. per-instance(클라가 co-located 합산).\n /\n @Query(returns => ScalarObject, {\n nullable: true,\n description:\n 'Forecast-accuracy gap diagnosis (canonical, server-computed): for N past vantages recompute forecast-at-T vs actual-at-T+h (deterministic backtest), aggregate co-located instances, and return points + SPC verdict (stability/bias) + metrics (accuracy/coverage/FVA) + learned-calibration projection. Client only renders.'\n })\n async twinForecastGapTrend(\n @Arg('instanceId') instanceId: string,\n @Arg('metric', { nullable: true }) metric: string,\n @Arg('horizonMs', type => Int, { nullable: true }) horizonMs: number,\n @Arg('samples', type => Int, { nullable: true }) samples: number,\n @Arg('scenario', type => ScalarObject, { nullable: true }) scenario: any,\n @Ctx() context: ResolverContext,\n @Arg('instanceIds', type => [String], { nullable: true }) instanceIds?: string[]\n ): Promise<any> {\n const domainId = context.state.domain.id\n const m = metricFn(metric)\n const H = horizonMs ?? 300000\n if (!m) return { metric, unsupportedMetric: true, horizonMs: H, samples: 0, points: [], spc: computeSpc([]), metrics: null, learn: null }\n const N = Math.min(30, Math.max(2, samples ?? GAP_SAMPLES)) // 표본은 서버가 관장(SPC 신뢰 하한 ~20).\n const scen = scenario ?? DEFAULT_SCENARIO\n // 공동배치(co-located) 집계도 서버에서 — 공장 단위 진단이 canonical. 미지정 시 단건.\n const ids = instanceIds?.length ? instanceIds : [instanceId]\n\n /\n * 격자를 먼저 하나 만든다. 트윈마다 자기 저널로 격자를 만들면 같은 인덱스가 서로 다른\n * 시각이 되어, 합산이 다른 시점의 값을 더한다(`aggregatePoints` 주석 참조).\n \n 저널이 없거나 지평 H 를 담을 만큼 길지 않은 트윈은 백테스트에 참여할 수 없다. 그런 트윈은\n * 빼되 누구를 뺐는지 돌려준다 — 알리지 않고 빼면 화면은 그 트윈까지 포함한 공장 총량으로 읽는다.\n /\n const windows = await Promise.all(ids.map(async id => ({ id, w: await gapWindow(domainId, id, H) })))\n const usable = windows.filter(x => x.w)\n const excluded = windows.filter(x => !x.w).map(x => x.id)\n const grid = sharedGrid(usable.map(x => x.w!), N)\n if (!grid) {\n / 겹치는 구간이 없다 — 잴 수 없는 것이지 정확도가 0 인 것이 아니다. /\n return { metric: metric ?? 'items', horizonMs: H, samples: N, points: [], spc: computeSpc([]), metrics: null, learn: null,\n coverage: { instances: ids.length, measured: 0, excluded, vantages: N, used: 0, dropped: 0, reason: 'no-common-window' } }\n }\n\n const per = await Promise.all(usable.map(x => gapPoints(domainId, x.id, m, H, grid, scen)))\n const { points, droppedVantages } = aggregatePoints(per as (GapPoint \| null)[][])\n const metrics = points.length ? gapMetrics(points) : null\n const spc = computeSpc(points.map(p => p.error))\n const learn = metrics ? learnedCalibration(points, metrics) : null\n return { metric: metric ?? 'items', horizonMs: H, samples: N, points, spc, metrics, learn,\n / 이 숫자가 무엇으로 계산됐는지. 24점 중 18점이면 화면이 그렇게 말해야 한다. /\n coverage: { instances: ids.length, measured: usable.length, excluded, vantages: N, used: points.length, dropped: droppedVantages } }\n }\n\n /\n * 학습(P3.2) — 갭에서 편향·밴드를 학습해 저장하면, 이후 twinForecast 가 상시 적용(라이브 예측이 실제로 보정됨).\n * assimilation-lite: 잔차(innovation)를 되먹여 추정치를 현실로. per-instance(클라가 co-located 합산).\n * 반환: 학습된 보정 + before/after 정확도(효과 정량화). 저장은 인메모리(세션) — DB 영속은 후속.\n /\n @Directive('@privilege(category: \"twin\", privilege: \"mutation\", domainOwnerGranted: true, superUserGranted: true)')\n @Mutation(returns => ScalarObject, { description: 'Learn a forecast calibration (bias + band) from the gap trend and persist it so future forecasts apply it. Returns the calibration + before/after accuracy.' })\n async twinLearnCalibration(\n @Arg('instanceId') instanceId: string,\n @Arg('metric', { nullable: true }) metric: string,\n @Arg('horizonMs', type => Int, { nullable: true }) horizonMs: number,\n @Ctx() context: ResolverContext,\n @Arg('clear', type => Boolean, { nullable: true }) clear?: boolean\n ): Promise<any> {\n const domainId = context.state.domain.id\n if (!TwinEngine.owns(domainId, instanceId)) return { ok: false } // 테넌트 격리\n const m = metricFn(metric)\n if (!m) return { ok: false, reason: 'unsupported-metric', metric }\n const H = horizonMs ?? 300000\n // 보정 해제 — 저장된 calibration 제거(이후 예측은 raw 로 복귀). 학습을 되돌리는 정직한 off 스위치.\n if (clear) {\n CALIBRATION.delete(calKey(domainId, instanceId, metric ?? 'items', H))\n return { ok: true, cleared: true, metric: metric ?? 'items', horizonMs: H }\n }\n // 표본·계산을 gap-analytics 로 일원화(gapTrend 진단과 동일 N·동일 수식 → 카드 예상치와 실제 보정 일치).\n / 학습은 단건이라 격자도 이 트윈의 구간 하나다. 저널이 지평 H 를 담을 만큼 길지 않으면 배울 것이 없다. /\n const w = await gapWindow(domainId, instanceId, H)\n const grid = w ? sharedGrid([w], GAP_SAMPLES) : null\n if (!grid) return { ok: false, reason: 'insufficient-history' }\n / 못 잰 vantage 는 `null` 로 온다 — 0 으로 세면 편향 학습이 그만큼 끌려간다. /\n const pts = (await gapPoints(domainId, instanceId, m, H, grid, DEFAULT_SCENARIO)).filter(Boolean) as GapPoint[]\n if (pts.length < 3) return { ok: false, reason: 'insufficient-history' }\n const learn = learnedCalibration(pts, gapMetrics(pts))\n / 학습한 모델의 지문을 함께 남긴다 — 이후 모델이 바뀌면 이 보정은 적용되지 않는다. */\n const basis = await TwinEngine.modelBasis(domainId, instanceId)\n const cal = {\n biasShift: learn.biasShift,\n halfWidth: learn.halfWidth,\n at: '',\n samples: pts.length,\n accBefore: learn.accBefore,\n accAfter: learn.accAfter,\n ...(basis ? { basis } : {})\n }\n CALIBRATION.set(calKey(domainId, instanceId, metric ?? 'items', H), cal)\n return { ok: true, metric: metric ?? 'items', horizonMs: H, biasShift: cal.biasShift, halfWidth: cal.halfWidth, samples: pts.length, accBefore: cal.accBefore, accAfter: cal.accAfter }\n }\n}\n"]}

package/dist-server/service/twin-state/twin-state-subscription.d.ts CHANGED Viewed

@@ -1,3 +1,4 @@
+import { type TwinStatePayload } from '../../engine/twin-state-channel.js';
 export declare class TwinStateMessage {
     instanceId: string;
     kind: string;
@@ -5,7 +6,5 @@ export declare class TwinStateMessage {
     payload?: any;
 }
 export declare class TwinStateSubscription {
-    twinState(payload: {
-        twinState: TwinStateMessage;
-    }, instanceId: string): TwinStateMessage;
+    twinState(payload: TwinStatePayload, instanceId: string): TwinStateMessage;
 }

package/dist-server/service/twin-state/twin-state-subscription.js CHANGED Viewed

@@ -6,6 +6,7 @@ const graphql_yoga_1 = require("graphql-yoga");
 const type_graphql_1 = require("type-graphql");
 const shell_1 = require("@things-factory/shell");
 const index_js_1 = require("../../engine/index.js");
+const twin_state_channel_js_1 = require("../../engine/twin-state-channel.js");
 /* State 채널 메시지 — snapshot | delta | clock 멀티플렉싱(커널 SubscriptionMessage 대응). */
 let TwinStateMessage = class TwinStateMessage {
 };
@@ -31,7 +32,15 @@ exports.TwinStateMessage = TwinStateMessage = tslib_1.__decorate([
 ], TwinStateMessage);
 /*
  * 트윈 State 구독 — state-register/data-resolver 패턴 미러.
- * 구독 즉시 현재 snapshot 발행(process.nextTick) 후 delta/clock 스트림. instanceId 로 필터.
+ * 구독 즉시 현재 snapshot 발행(process.nextTick) 후 delta/clock 스트림.
+ *
+ * The tenant is asked while streaming, not only at subscribe time (2026-09-24). Ownership used to be
+ * checked once and the stream filtered on instanceId alone; the same id in two tenants is the normal
+ * case (`runtime-key.ts`), so other tenants' deltas came through, and the snapshot sent to a new
+ * subscriber reached every tenant subscribed to that id. Messages now carry their domain and the filter
+ * compares it (`engine/twin-state-channel.ts`). A twin the caller does not own is refused rather than
+ * given an empty stream — an empty stream cannot tell "nothing changed" from "you may not see this"
+ * (shell's `data` throws too).
  */
 let TwinStateSubscription = class TwinStateSubscription {
     twinState(payload, instanceId) {
@@ -41,23 +50,21 @@ let TwinStateSubscription = class TwinStateSubscription {
 exports.TwinStateSubscription = TwinStateSubscription;
 tslib_1.__decorate([
     (0, type_graphql_1.Subscription)(returns => TwinStateMessage, {
-        subscribe: ({ args, context }) => {
+        subscribe: async ({ args, context }) => {
             const { instanceId } = args;
-            const domainId = context?.state?.domain?.id;
-            /* 테넌트 격리 — 이 도메인 소유 인스턴스가 아니면 스냅샷도 스트림도 흘리지 않는다(빈 구독). */
-            if (!domainId || !index_js_1.TwinEngine.owns(domainId, instanceId)) {
-                return (0, graphql_yoga_1.pipe)(shell_1.pubsub.subscribe('twin-state'), (0, graphql_yoga_1.filter)(() => false));
-            }
-            /* 구독 순간 현재 상태를 먼저 발행(late 구독자도 snapshot→delta 순서 보장). */
+            const { domain, user } = context?.state ?? {};
+            await (0, shell_1.assertDomainSubscribeAllowed)(domain, user, (d, u) => process.superUserGranted(d, u));
+            /* One refusal for both cases, so the answer does not reveal whether another tenant has such a twin. */
+            if (!index_js_1.TwinEngine.owns(domain.id, instanceId))
+                throw new Error(`twin instance not running in this tenant: ${instanceId}`);
+            /* Current state first (a late subscriber still sees snapshot → delta). It reaches this tenant's subscribers only. */
             process.nextTick(() => {
-                const snap = index_js_1.TwinEngine.snapshot(domainId, instanceId);
+                const snap = index_js_1.TwinEngine.snapshot(domain.id, instanceId);
                 if (snap) {
-                    shell_1.pubsub.publish('twin-state', {
-                        twinState: { instanceId, kind: 'snapshot', revision: snap.revision, payload: snap }
-                    });
+                    shell_1.pubsub.publish(twin_state_channel_js_1.TWIN_STATE_TOPIC, (0, twin_state_channel_js_1.twinStatePayload)(domain.id, { instanceId, kind: 'snapshot', revision: snap.revision, payload: snap }));
                 }
             });
-            return (0, graphql_yoga_1.pipe)(shell_1.pubsub.subscribe('twin-state'), (0, graphql_yoga_1.filter)((payload) => payload.twinState.instanceId === instanceId));
+            return (0, graphql_yoga_1.pipe)(shell_1.pubsub.subscribe(twin_state_channel_js_1.TWIN_STATE_TOPIC), (0, graphql_yoga_1.filter)((0, twin_state_channel_js_1.twinStateFilter)(domain.id, instanceId)));
         }
     }),
     tslib_1.__param(0, (0, type_graphql_1.Root)()),

package/dist-server/service/twin-state/twin-state-subscription.js.map CHANGED Viewed

	@@ -1 +1 @@
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Ownership used to be\n * checked once and the stream filtered on instanceId alone; the same id in two tenants is the normal\n * case (`runtime-key.ts`), so other tenants' deltas came through, and the snapshot sent to a new\n * subscriber reached every tenant subscribed to that id. Messages now carry their domain and the filter\n * compares it (`engine/twin-state-channel.ts`). A twin the caller does not own is refused rather than\n * given an empty stream — an empty stream cannot tell \"nothing changed\" from \"you may not see this\"\n * (shell's `data` throws too).\n /\n@Resolver()\nexport class TwinStateSubscription {\n @Subscription(returns => TwinStateMessage, {\n subscribe: async ({ args, context }) => {\n const { instanceId } = args\n const { domain, user } = (context as any)?.state ?? {}\n await assertDomainSubscribeAllowed(domain, user, (d, u) => process.superUserGranted(d, u))\n\n / One refusal for both cases, so the answer does not reveal whether another tenant has such a twin. /\n if (!TwinEngine.owns(domain.id, instanceId)) throw new Error(`twin instance not running in this tenant: ${instanceId}`)\n\n / Current state first (a late subscriber still sees snapshot → delta). It reaches this tenant's subscribers only. */\n process.nextTick(() => {\n const snap = TwinEngine.snapshot(domain.id, instanceId)\n if (snap) {\n pubsub.publish(TWIN_STATE_TOPIC, twinStatePayload(domain.id, { instanceId, kind: 'snapshot', revision: snap.revision, payload: snap }))\n }\n })\n\n return pipe(pubsub.subscribe(TWIN_STATE_TOPIC), filter(twinStateFilter(domain.id, instanceId)))\n }\n })\n twinState(@Root() payload: TwinStatePayload, @Arg('instanceId') instanceId: string): TwinStateMessage {\n return payload.twinState as TwinStateMessage\n }\n}\n"]}

package/package.json CHANGED Viewed

@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
 {
   "name": "@things-factory/headless-twin",
-  "version": "10.1.37",
+  "version": "10.1.38",
   "main": "dist-server/index.js",
   "things-factory": true,
   "author": "heartyoh <heartyoh@hatiolab.com>",
@@ -29,11 +29,11 @@
   "dependencies": {
     "@operato/ops-contract": "^0.9.33",
     "@operato/twin-kernel": "^0.11.23",
-    "@things-factory/auth-base": "^10.1.37",
-    "@things-factory/cache-service": "^10.1.37",
+    "@things-factory/auth-base": "^10.1.38",
+    "@things-factory/cache-service": "^10.1.38",
     "@things-factory/env": "^10.1.20",
-    "@things-factory/ingest": "^10.1.37",
-    "@things-factory/shell": "^10.1.37"
+    "@things-factory/ingest": "^10.1.38",
+    "@things-factory/shell": "^10.1.38"
   },
-  "gitHead": "d8a69e5c8803a4b9d3289df0cf38e161a207db61"
+  "gitHead": "b947349fe1c27d11038b592ceadaba336f14785b"
 }

package/server/engine/twin-engine.ts CHANGED Viewed

@@ -24,6 +24,7 @@ import { itemResolverFor } from '../service/twin-subject/item-resolver.js'
 import { planLiveContinuity, planWarmStart, unwrapState } from './warm-start.js'
 import { applyDeclarationLayers } from './local-declarations.js'
 import { isOfDomain, parseRuntimeKey, runtimeKey } from './runtime-key.js'
+import { TWIN_STATE_TOPIC, twinStatePayload } from './twin-state-channel.js'
 import { routeCommand } from './command-routing.js'
 import { TwinInstance } from '../service/twin-instance/twin-instance.js'
 /* 자극의 집은 원본이다(ADR-0029) — 그 행을 읽고 쓴다. */
@@ -1704,8 +1705,8 @@ export class TwinEngine {
     /* State 채널: runtime.subscribe(snapshot→delta→clock) → pubsub 브로드캐스팅(구독 리졸버가 instanceId 필터). */
     const sub = runtime.subscribe((msg: SubscriptionMessage) => {
       this.publishGuarded(
-        'twin-state',
-        { twinState: { instanceId: id, kind: msg.kind, revision: (msg as any).revision, payload: msg } },
+        TWIN_STATE_TOPIC,
+        twinStatePayload(domainId, { instanceId: id, kind: msg.kind, revision: (msg as any).revision, payload: msg }),
         `twin-state:${id}`
       )
       /* 영속 + 라이브 바인딩 브리지: delta 를 저널 버퍼에 담고 + 엔티티별 data(tag:) publish → 보드 컴포넌트 라이브. */
@@ -2353,8 +2354,8 @@ export class TwinEngine {
       //    scheduleRefresh(250ms 디바운스)→pollLive 로 되물어봄. 스냅샷(O(state))은 보는 사람이 물을 때만 1회 계산.
       //    (여기서 payload 로 스냅샷을 실으면 아무도 안 읽는데 tick 마다 통째로 떠서 순수 낭비 — 신호만 보낸다.)
       this.publishGuarded(
-        'twin-state',
-        { twinState: { instanceId: inst.id, kind: 'delta', revision: inst.revision ?? 0 } },
+        TWIN_STATE_TOPIC,
+        twinStatePayload(inst.domainId, { instanceId: inst.id, kind: 'delta', revision: inst.revision ?? 0 }),
         `twin-state:${inst.id}`
       )
     }
@@ -3641,7 +3642,7 @@ export class TwinEngine {
    * 그래도 이 가드를 남기는 이유는 둘이다. `publish` 가 직접 던지는 경우(직렬화 실패 등)를 잡고,
    * 못 보낸 태그의 시그니처를 되돌린다 — 남겨 두면 그 태그가 오류 없이 영원히 낡은 값을 보인다.
    */
-  private static publishGuarded(channel: 'data' | 'twin-state', payload: any, what: string): boolean {
+  private static publishGuarded(channel: 'data' | typeof TWIN_STATE_TOPIC, payload: any, what: string): boolean {
     try {
       pubsub.publish(channel as any, payload)
       return true

package/server/engine/twin-state-channel.ts ADDED Viewed

@@ -0,0 +1,39 @@
+/*
+ * The `twin-state` channel — **a message says whose twin it is, and the filter asks.** Pure.
+ *
+ * ── What went wrong (2026-09-24) ─────────────────────────────────────────────
+ * A twin is `(domain, instanceId)` (`runtime-key.ts`), and the same instanceId in two tenants is the
+ * expected case — reference source names such as `sap-ewm-1710` are vocabulary tenants share. The
+ * channel had not caught up: publishers sent `{ twinState: { instanceId, … } }` with no domain, and the
+ * subscription filtered on instanceId alone. Ownership was checked once, when subscribing. So a tenant
+ * watching its own `sap-ewm-1710` also received the other tenant's deltas, and the snapshot sent to a
+ * new subscriber went to every subscriber of that id in every tenant.
+ *
+ * The rule is shell's `data` channel's (the message carries its domain, the filter compares it with the
+ * key), compared by id because the twin's key already is. Every sender builds its payload here, and
+ * `twin-state-channel.test.ts` fails if a sender builds one anywhere else.
+ */
+export const TWIN_STATE_TOPIC = 'twin-state'
+export interface TwinStateMessageShape {
+  instanceId: string
+  kind: string
+  revision?: number
+  payload?: unknown
+}
+export interface TwinStatePayload {
+  domainId: string
+  twinState: TwinStateMessageShape
+}
+export function twinStatePayload(domainId: string, twinState: TwinStateMessageShape): TwinStatePayload {
+  if (!domainId) throw new Error('twinStatePayload: domainId is required — a twin state message always belongs to a tenant')
+  return { domainId, twinState }
+}
+/** Passes only this tenant's messages about this twin. */
+export function twinStateFilter(domainId: string, instanceId: string) {
+  return (p: TwinStatePayload | undefined): boolean => !!p && p.domainId === domainId && p.twinState?.instanceId === instanceId
+}

package/server/service/reference/reference-progress-channel.ts ADDED Viewed

@@ -0,0 +1,26 @@
+/*
+ * The `twin-reference-progress` channel — **progress says whose import it is, and the filter asks.** Pure.
+ *
+ * The subscription filtered on `source` alone and checked only that the caller had some domain, so
+ * anyone who knew a source name — and names like `sap-ewm-1710` are shared between tenants — received
+ * another tenant's import progress, including its failure text. Same fix and same rule as
+ * `engine/twin-state-channel.ts`.
+ */
+export const REFERENCE_PROGRESS_TOPIC = 'twin-reference-progress'
+export interface ReferenceProgressPayload<M extends { source: string } = { source: string }> {
+  domainId: string
+  twinReferenceProgress: M
+}
+export function referenceProgressPayload<M extends { source: string }>(domainId: string, message: M): ReferenceProgressPayload<M> {
+  if (!domainId) throw new Error('referenceProgressPayload: domainId is required — import progress always belongs to a tenant')
+  return { domainId, twinReferenceProgress: message }
+}
+/** Passes only this tenant's progress for this source. */
+export function referenceProgressFilter(domainId: string, source: string) {
+  return (p: ReferenceProgressPayload | undefined): boolean =>
+    !!p && p.domainId === domainId && p.twinReferenceProgress?.source === source
+}

package/server/service/reference/reference-progress-subscription.ts CHANGED Viewed

@@ -8,10 +8,12 @@
  * 낱말이 표준이므로 화면은 **단계마다 번역 하나**만 두면 모든 커넥터를 보여 준다.
  */
 import { Arg, Field, Int, ObjectType, Resolver, Root, Subscription } from 'type-graphql'
-import { pubsub } from '@things-factory/shell'
+import { assertDomainSubscribeAllowed, getRepository, pubsub } from '@things-factory/shell'
 import { filter, pipe } from 'graphql-yoga'
 import { REFERENCE_STEPS } from './reference-progress.js'
+import { REFERENCE_PROGRESS_TOPIC, referenceProgressFilter, type ReferenceProgressPayload } from './reference-progress-channel.js'
+import { TwinReference } from './twin-reference.js'
 @ObjectType({ description: 'One step of progress while a reference is being imported into twins.' })
 export class TwinReferenceProgressMessage {
@@ -52,20 +54,23 @@ export class TwinReferenceProgressMessage {
 @Resolver()
 export class TwinReferenceProgressSubscription {
   @Subscription(returns => TwinReferenceProgressMessage, {
-    subscribe: ({ args, context }) => {
+    /*
+     * Tenancy is asked twice (2026-09-24): the source must be one of the caller's references, and every
+     * message must be the caller's domain's. It used to filter on `source` alone after checking only that
+     * the caller had a domain — and source names are shared between tenants.
+     */
+    subscribe: async ({ args, context }) => {
       const { source } = args
-      const domainId = (context as any)?.state?.domain?.id
-      /* 테넌트 격리 — 도메인이 없으면 빈 구독이다(다른 테넌트의 진행을 흘리지 않는다). */
-      if (!domainId) return pipe(pubsub.subscribe('twin-reference-progress'), filter(() => false))
-      return pipe(
-        pubsub.subscribe('twin-reference-progress'),
-        filter((p: { twinReferenceProgress: TwinReferenceProgressMessage }) => p.twinReferenceProgress.source === source)
-      )
+      const { domain, user } = (context as any)?.state ?? {}
+      await assertDomainSubscribeAllowed(domain, user, (d, u) => process.superUserGranted(d, u))
+      const owned = await getRepository(TwinReference).findOne({ where: { domain: { id: domain.id }, source } })
+      if (!owned) throw new Error(`reference not found in this tenant: ${source}`)
+      return pipe(pubsub.subscribe(REFERENCE_PROGRESS_TOPIC), filter(referenceProgressFilter(domain.id, source)))
     },
     description: 'Progress while importing a reference — standard step names, so one translation per step covers every connector.'
   })
   twinReferenceProgress(
-    @Root() payload: { twinReferenceProgress: TwinReferenceProgressMessage },
+    @Root() payload: ReferenceProgressPayload<TwinReferenceProgressMessage>,
     @Arg('source') source: string
   ): TwinReferenceProgressMessage {
     return payload.twinReferenceProgress