@the-situation/indexer 0.12.6 → 0.14.0

package/dist/layers/ChainReaderLive.js

@@ -1,5 +1,4 @@
 import { BIVARIATE_AMM_ABI, LOGNORMAL_AMM_ABI, MULTINOULLI_AMM_ABI, NORMAL_AMM_ABI, } from '@the-situation/artifacts';
-import { SQ128x128 } from '@the-situation/core';
 import { createProvider, MultinoulliAMMContract } from '@the-situation/starknet';
 import { normalizeResponse } from '@the-situation/utils';
 import { Effect, Layer } from 'effect';
@@ -79,12 +78,25 @@ function sq128MagnitudeToString(value) {
     const magnitude = raw.limb0 + (raw.limb1 << 64n) + (raw.limb2 << 128n) + (raw.limb3 << 192n);
     return magnitude.toString();
 }
+function parseMultinoulliDistributionProbs(rawDistribution) {
+    const distribution = normalizeResponse(rawDistribution);
+    const rawProbs = Array.isArray(distribution.probs)
+        ? distribution.probs
+        : Array.isArray(rawDistribution)
+            ? rawDistribution
+            : [];
+    return rawProbs.map((raw) => sq128ToNumber(raw) ?? 0);
+}
 function projectedDistributionFields(marketType, distribution) {
     if (marketType === 'normal') {
         return {
             meanRaw: distribution.mean,
             varianceRaw: distribution.variance,
             sigmaRaw: distribution.sigma,
+            mean2Raw: null,
+            variance2Raw: null,
+            sigma2Raw: null,
+            rhoRaw: null,
         };
     }
     if (marketType === 'lognormal') {
@@ -92,24 +104,36 @@ function projectedDistributionFields(marketType, distribution) {
             meanRaw: distribution.mu,
             varianceRaw: distribution.variance,
             sigmaRaw: null,
+            mean2Raw: null,
+            variance2Raw: null,
+            sigma2Raw: null,
+            rhoRaw: null,
         };
     }
-    // bivariate projection: first marginal (x1)
+    // bivariate projection: both marginals (x1, x2) + correlation.
     return {
         meanRaw: distribution.mu1,
         varianceRaw: distribution.variance1,
-        sigmaRaw: null,
+        sigmaRaw: distribution.sigma1,
+        mean2Raw: distribution.mu2,
+        variance2Raw: distribution.variance2,
+        sigma2Raw: distribution.sigma2,
+        rhoRaw: distribution.rho,
     };
 }
-function settlementValueFromStatus(status) {
-    if (status.settlementValue !== undefined) {
-        return sq128ToNumber(status.settlementValue);
-    }
+function settlementFromStatus(status) {
+    let settlementX1 = null;
+    let settlementX2 = null;
     if (status.settlementPoint && typeof status.settlementPoint === 'object') {
         const point = status.settlementPoint;
-        return sq128ToNumber(point.x1);
+        settlementX1 = sq128ToNumber(point.x1);
+        settlementX2 = sq128ToNumber(point.x2);
     }
-    return null;
+    const settlementValue = status.settlementValue !== undefined ? sq128ToNumber(status.settlementValue) : settlementX1;
+    if (settlementX1 === null) {
+        settlementX1 = settlementValue;
+    }
+    return { settlementValue, settlementX1, settlementX2 };
 }
 function continuousAbi(marketType) {
     if (marketType === 'lognormal') {
@@ -223,6 +247,12 @@ export function createChainReaderService(rpcUrl) {
                 const variance = sq128ToNumber(projected.varianceRaw);
                 const directSigma = sq128ToNumber(projected.sigmaRaw);
                 const sigma = directSigma ?? (variance === null ? null : Math.sqrt(Math.max(variance, 0)));
+                const mean2 = sq128ToNumber(projected.mean2Raw);
+                const variance2 = sq128ToNumber(projected.variance2Raw);
+                const directSigma2 = sq128ToNumber(projected.sigma2Raw);
+                const sigma2 = directSigma2 ?? (variance2 === null ? null : Math.sqrt(Math.max(variance2, 0)));
+                const rho = sq128ToNumber(projected.rhoRaw);
+                const settlement = settlementFromStatus(status);
                 const baseK = sq128ToNumber(params.k);
                 const initialBacking = sq128ToNumber(params.backing);
                 const poolBacking = sq128ToNumber(lpInfo.totalBackingDeposited);
@@ -239,12 +269,24 @@ export function createChainReaderService(rpcUrl) {
                     isInitialized: toBoolValue(status.isInitialized),
                     isPaused: toBoolValue(status.isPaused),
                     isSettled: toBoolValue(status.isSettled),
-                    settlementValue: settlementValueFromStatus(status),
+                    settlementValue: settlement.settlementValue,
+                    settlementX1: settlement.settlementX1,
+                    settlementX2: settlement.settlementX2,
                     totalShares: sq128MagnitudeToString(lpInfo.totalShares),
                     totalBacking: sq128MagnitudeToString(lpInfo.totalBackingDeposited),
                     meanRaw: projected.meanRaw ? jsonStringifyBigInt(projected.meanRaw) : null,
                     sigmaRaw: projected.sigmaRaw ? jsonStringifyBigInt(projected.sigmaRaw) : null,
                     varianceRaw: projected.varianceRaw ? jsonStringifyBigInt(projected.varianceRaw) : null,
+                    mean2,
+                    sigma2,
+                    variance2,
+                    rho,
+                    mean2Raw: projected.mean2Raw ? jsonStringifyBigInt(projected.mean2Raw) : null,
+                    sigma2Raw: projected.sigma2Raw ? jsonStringifyBigInt(projected.sigma2Raw) : null,
+                    variance2Raw: projected.variance2Raw
+                        ? jsonStringifyBigInt(projected.variance2Raw)
+                        : null,
+                    rhoRaw: projected.rhoRaw ? jsonStringifyBigInt(projected.rhoRaw) : null,
                     k: baseK,
                     effectiveK,
                     payoutAmplifier,
@@ -314,10 +356,7 @@ export function createChainReaderService(rpcUrl) {
                     amm.getSettlementOutcomes(),
                     amm.getMatrixConstraints(),
                 ]);
-                const probs = distribution.probs.map((raw) => {
-                    const parsed = SQ128x128.fromRaw(raw);
-                    return parsed?.toNumber() ?? 0;
-                });
+                const probs = parseMultinoulliDistributionProbs(distribution);
                 const mBaseK = params?.k.toNumber() ?? null;
                 const mInitBacking = params?.backing.toNumber() ?? null;
                 const mPoolBacking = lpInfo?.totalBackingDeposited?.toNumber() ?? null;
@@ -350,6 +389,20 @@ export function createChainReaderService(rpcUrl) {
             },
             catch: (e) => new ChainReadError(`Failed to read multinoulli market state: ${e instanceof Error ? e.message : 'Unknown'}`, e),
         }),
+        readMultinoulliDistributionAtBlock: (marketAddress, blockNumber) => Effect.tryPromise({
+            try: async () => {
+                if (!Number.isSafeInteger(blockNumber) || blockNumber < 0) {
+                    throw new Error(`Invalid block number ${blockNumber}.`);
+                }
+                const amm = getMultinoulliAmm(marketAddress);
+                const rawDistribution = await amm
+                    .getUnderlyingContract()
+                    .call('get_distribution', [], { blockIdentifier: blockNumber });
+                const probs = parseMultinoulliDistributionProbs(rawDistribution);
+                return { outcomeCount: probs.length, probs };
+            },
+            catch: (e) => new ChainReadError(`Failed to read multinoulli distribution at block ${blockNumber}: ${e instanceof Error ? e.message : 'Unknown'}`, e),
+        }),
         readLPShares: (marketAddress, provider, marketType = 'normal') => Effect.tryPromise({
             try: async () => {
                 const contract = getContinuousContract(marketAddress, marketType);
@@ -379,14 +432,8 @@ export function createChainReaderService(rpcUrl) {
                         settlementState: 'never_traded',
                     };
                 }
-                const originalProbs = compact.originalDistribution.probs.map((raw) => {
-                    const parsed = SQ128x128.fromRaw(raw);
-                    return parsed?.toNumber() ?? 0;
-                });
-                const effectiveProbs = compact.effectiveDistribution.probs.map((raw) => {
-                    const parsed = SQ128x128.fromRaw(raw);
-                    return parsed?.toNumber() ?? 0;
-                });
+                const originalProbs = compact.originalDistribution.probs.map((raw) => sq128ToNumber(raw) ?? 0);
+                const effectiveProbs = compact.effectiveDistribution.probs.map((raw) => sq128ToNumber(raw) ?? 0);
                 return {
                     exists: summary.exists,
                     claimed: summary.claimed,

package/dist/layers/ChainReaderLive.js.map

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package/dist/lp/valuation.d.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,34 @@
+import type { LPPositionRow } from '../db/repositories/lp-position';
+import type { MarketEventRow } from '../types/event';
+import type { MarketStateRow, MarketType } from '../types/market';
+import type { UserPositionRow } from '../types/position';
+export interface LPValuationSnapshot {
+    readonly currentValue: number | null;
+    readonly unrealizedPnl: number | null;
+    readonly entryMean: number | null;
+    readonly entrySigma: number | null;
+    readonly entryK: number | null;
+    readonly componentLambda: number | null;
+    readonly claimComponentCount: number;
+}
+/**
+ * Reconstruct exact LP claim legs for normal markets and derive per-provider
+ * value / P&L snapshots at the same evaluation point the participant table uses.
+ *
+ * Laws:
+ * - Only normal markets are valued exactly here. Other market types fall back
+ *   to the indexer's stored approximation.
+ * - LP claim legs are only exposed as a single underwriting position when the
+ *   provider currently has exactly one active leg. Multiple active legs are
+ *   reported honestly as "mixed" via `claimComponentCount > 1`.
+ * - When the current state is insufficient to replay safely, we preserve the
+ *   stored row rather than inventing a precise-looking number.
+ */
+export declare function computeLPValuationSnapshots(input: {
+    readonly marketType: MarketType;
+    readonly marketState: MarketStateRow | null;
+    readonly lpPositions: readonly LPPositionRow[];
+    readonly traderPositions: readonly UserPositionRow[];
+    readonly events: readonly MarketEventRow[];
+}): Map<string, LPValuationSnapshot>;
+//# sourceMappingURL=valuation.d.ts.map

package/dist/lp/valuation.d.ts.map

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+{"version":3,"file":"valuation.d.ts","sourceRoot":"","sources":["../../src/lp/valuation.ts"],"names":[],"mappings":"AACA,OAAO,KAAK,EAAE,aAAa,EAAE,MAAM,gCAAgC,CAAC;AACpE,OAAO,KAAK,EAAE,cAAc,EAAE,MAAM,gBAAgB,CAAC;AACrD,OAAO,KAAK,EAAE,cAAc,EAAE,UAAU,EAAE,MAAM,iBAAiB,CAAC;AAClE,OAAO,KAAK,EAAE,eAAe,EAAE,MAAM,mBAAmB,CAAC;AAiBzD,MAAM,WAAW,mBAAmB;IAClC,QAAQ,CAAC,YAAY,EAAE,MAAM,GAAG,IAAI,CAAC;IACrC,QAAQ,CAAC,aAAa,EAAE,MAAM,GAAG,IAAI,CAAC;IACtC,QAAQ,CAAC,SAAS,EAAE,MAAM,GAAG,IAAI,CAAC;IAClC,QAAQ,CAAC,UAAU,EAAE,MAAM,GAAG,IAAI,CAAC;IACnC,QAAQ,CAAC,MAAM,EAAE,MAAM,GAAG,IAAI,CAAC;IAC/B,QAAQ,CAAC,eAAe,EAAE,MAAM,GAAG,IAAI,CAAC;IACxC,QAAQ,CAAC,mBAAmB,EAAE,MAAM,CAAC;CACtC;AA6ID;;;;;;;;;;;;GAYG;AACH,wBAAgB,2BAA2B,CAAC,KAAK,EAAE;IACjD,QAAQ,CAAC,UAAU,EAAE,UAAU,CAAC;IAChC,QAAQ,CAAC,WAAW,EAAE,cAAc,GAAG,IAAI,CAAC;IAC5C,QAAQ,CAAC,WAAW,EAAE,SAAS,aAAa,EAAE,CAAC;IAC/C,QAAQ,CAAC,eAAe,EAAE,SAAS,eAAe,EAAE,CAAC;IACrD,QAAQ,CAAC,MAAM,EAAE,SAAS,cAAc,EAAE,CAAC;CAC5C,GAAG,GAAG,CAAC,MAAM,EAAE,mBAAmB,CAAC,CAsLnC"}

package/dist/lp/valuation.js

@@ -0,0 +1,282 @@
+import { computeLPClaimComponentValue } from '@the-situation/sdk/valuation';
+const TWO_128 = Number(2n ** 128n);
+const SQRT_PI = Math.sqrt(Math.PI);
+function parseRawData(rawData) {
+    if (rawData == null) {
+        return [];
+    }
+    try {
+        const parsed = JSON.parse(rawData);
+        return Array.isArray(parsed) ? parsed.filter((item) => typeof item === 'string') : [];
+    }
+    catch {
+        return [];
+    }
+}
+function sq128x128ToNumber(raw, start) {
+    if (raw.length < start + 5) {
+        return null;
+    }
+    try {
+        const combined = BigInt(raw[start]) +
+            (BigInt(raw[start + 1]) << 64n) +
+            (BigInt(raw[start + 2]) << 128n) +
+            (BigInt(raw[start + 3]) << 192n);
+        const magnitude = Number(combined) / TWO_128;
+        return BigInt(raw[start + 4]) !== 0n ? -magnitude : magnitude;
+    }
+    catch {
+        return null;
+    }
+}
+function rawTotalToNumber(raw) {
+    if (raw == null) {
+        return null;
+    }
+    const parsed = Number(raw);
+    if (!Number.isFinite(parsed)) {
+        return null;
+    }
+    return parsed / TWO_128;
+}
+function computeNormalLambda(sigma, k) {
+    if (!Number.isFinite(sigma) || !Number.isFinite(k) || sigma <= 0 || k <= 0) {
+        return 0;
+    }
+    return k * Math.sqrt(2 * sigma * SQRT_PI);
+}
+function extractNormalTradeDistributions(event) {
+    if (event.event_type === 'trade_executed') {
+        const raw = parseRawData(event.raw_data);
+        const previousMean = sq128x128ToNumber(raw, 0);
+        const previousSigma = sq128x128ToNumber(raw, 10);
+        const nextMean = sq128x128ToNumber(raw, 15);
+        const nextSigma = sq128x128ToNumber(raw, 25);
+        return {
+            previous: previousMean != null && previousSigma != null && previousSigma > 0
+                ? { mean: previousMean, sigma: previousSigma }
+                : event.old_mean != null && event.old_std_dev != null && event.old_std_dev > 0
+                    ? { mean: event.old_mean, sigma: event.old_std_dev }
+                    : null,
+            next: nextMean != null && nextSigma != null && nextSigma > 0
+                ? { mean: nextMean, sigma: nextSigma }
+                : event.mean !== 0 && event.std_dev > 0
+                    ? { mean: event.mean, sigma: event.std_dev }
+                    : null,
+        };
+    }
+    if (event.event_type === 'trade_moved') {
+        return {
+            previous: event.old_mean != null && event.old_std_dev != null && event.old_std_dev > 0
+                ? { mean: event.old_mean, sigma: event.old_std_dev }
+                : null,
+            next: event.std_dev > 0 ? { mean: event.mean, sigma: event.std_dev } : null,
+        };
+    }
+    return { previous: null, next: null };
+}
+function inferInitialNormalDistribution(events, marketState) {
+    const bootstrapped = events.find((event) => event.event_type === 'bootstrapped' && event.std_dev > 0);
+    if (bootstrapped) {
+        return { mean: bootstrapped.mean, sigma: bootstrapped.std_dev };
+    }
+    for (const event of events) {
+        const distributions = extractNormalTradeDistributions(event);
+        if (distributions.previous != null) {
+            return distributions.previous;
+        }
+    }
+    if (marketState?.mean != null && marketState.sigma != null && marketState.sigma > 0) {
+        return { mean: marketState.mean, sigma: marketState.sigma };
+    }
+    return null;
+}
+function appendComponent(componentsByProvider, provider, component) {
+    const existing = componentsByProvider.get(provider) ?? [];
+    existing.push(component);
+    componentsByProvider.set(provider, existing);
+}
+function buildFallbackSnapshot(row) {
+    const hasFallbackEntry = row.claimed_at == null && row.entry_mean != null && row.entry_sigma != null;
+    return {
+        currentValue: row.current_value,
+        unrealizedPnl: row.unrealized_pnl,
+        entryMean: hasFallbackEntry ? row.entry_mean : null,
+        entrySigma: hasFallbackEntry ? row.entry_sigma : null,
+        entryK: hasFallbackEntry ? row.entry_k : null,
+        componentLambda: hasFallbackEntry ? row.component_lambda : null,
+        claimComponentCount: hasFallbackEntry ? 1 : 0,
+    };
+}
+/**
+ * Reconstruct exact LP claim legs for normal markets and derive per-provider
+ * value / P&L snapshots at the same evaluation point the participant table uses.
+ *
+ * Laws:
+ * - Only normal markets are valued exactly here. Other market types fall back
+ *   to the indexer's stored approximation.
+ * - LP claim legs are only exposed as a single underwriting position when the
+ *   provider currently has exactly one active leg. Multiple active legs are
+ *   reported honestly as "mixed" via `claimComponentCount > 1`.
+ * - When the current state is insufficient to replay safely, we preserve the
+ *   stored row rather than inventing a precise-looking number.
+ */
+export function computeLPValuationSnapshots(input) {
+    const result = new Map();
+    for (const row of input.lpPositions) {
+        result.set(row.provider, buildFallbackSnapshot(row));
+    }
+    if (input.marketType !== 'normal') {
+        return result;
+    }
+    const baseK = input.marketState?.k ?? null;
+    const totalBacking = rawTotalToNumber(input.marketState?.total_backing ?? null);
+    const totalShares = rawTotalToNumber(input.marketState?.total_shares ?? null);
+    const evaluationPoint = input.marketState?.is_settled === 1
+        ? input.marketState.settlement_value
+        : input.marketState?.mean ?? null;
+    const initialDistribution = inferInitialNormalDistribution(input.events, input.marketState);
+    if (baseK == null ||
+        baseK <= 0 ||
+        totalBacking == null ||
+        totalShares == null ||
+        totalShares <= 0 ||
+        evaluationPoint == null ||
+        initialDistribution == null) {
+        return result;
+    }
+    const componentsByProvider = new Map();
+    const providerShares = new Map();
+    let replayTotalShares = 0;
+    let currentDistribution = initialDistribution;
+    let marketSettled = false;
+    for (const event of input.events) {
+        if (event.event_type === 'market_settled') {
+            marketSettled = true;
+            continue;
+        }
+        if (event.event_type === 'market_initialized') {
+            const provider = event.trader?.toLowerCase();
+            const shares = sq128x128ToNumber(parseRawData(event.raw_data), 0);
+            if (provider != null && shares != null && shares > 0) {
+                const lambda = computeNormalLambda(currentDistribution.sigma, baseK);
+                if (lambda > 0) {
+                    appendComponent(componentsByProvider, provider, {
+                        mean: currentDistribution.mean,
+                        sigma: currentDistribution.sigma,
+                        k: baseK,
+                        lambda,
+                    });
+                }
+                providerShares.set(provider, (providerShares.get(provider) ?? 0) + shares);
+                replayTotalShares += shares;
+            }
+            continue;
+        }
+        if (event.event_type === 'liquidity_added') {
+            const provider = event.trader?.toLowerCase();
+            const shares = sq128x128ToNumber(parseRawData(event.raw_data), 0);
+            if (provider != null && shares != null && shares > 0) {
+                if (replayTotalShares > 0 && currentDistribution != null) {
+                    const shareFraction = shares / replayTotalShares;
+                    const lambda = computeNormalLambda(currentDistribution.sigma, baseK) * shareFraction;
+                    if (lambda > 0) {
+                        appendComponent(componentsByProvider, provider, {
+                            mean: currentDistribution.mean,
+                            sigma: currentDistribution.sigma,
+                            k: baseK,
+                            lambda,
+                        });
+                    }
+                }
+                providerShares.set(provider, (providerShares.get(provider) ?? 0) + shares);
+                replayTotalShares += shares;
+            }
+            continue;
+        }
+        if (event.event_type === 'liquidity_removed') {
+            const provider = event.trader?.toLowerCase();
+            const removedShares = sq128x128ToNumber(parseRawData(event.raw_data), 0);
+            if (provider != null && removedShares != null && removedShares > 0) {
+                const currentShares = providerShares.get(provider) ?? 0;
+                const remainingShares = Math.max(0, currentShares - removedShares);
+                if (marketSettled) {
+                    componentsByProvider.set(provider, []);
+                }
+                else {
+                    const remainingFraction = currentShares > 0 ? remainingShares / currentShares : 0;
+                    const scaled = remainingFraction > 0
+                        ? (componentsByProvider.get(provider) ?? [])
+                            .map((component) => ({
+                            ...component,
+                            lambda: component.lambda * remainingFraction,
+                        }))
+                            .filter((component) => component.lambda > 0)
+                        : [];
+                    componentsByProvider.set(provider, scaled);
+                }
+                providerShares.set(provider, remainingShares);
+                replayTotalShares = Math.max(0, replayTotalShares - removedShares);
+            }
+            continue;
+        }
+        const tradeDistributions = extractNormalTradeDistributions(event);
+        if (tradeDistributions.next != null) {
+            currentDistribution = tradeDistributions.next;
+        }
+    }
+    const claimedProviders = new Set(input.lpPositions
+        .filter((row) => row.claimed_at != null)
+        .map((row) => row.provider.toLowerCase()));
+    for (const provider of claimedProviders) {
+        componentsByProvider.set(provider, []);
+    }
+    const totalTraderPnl = input.traderPositions.reduce((sum, position) => {
+        return sum + (position.unrealized_pnl ?? 0) + (position.realized_pnl ?? 0);
+    }, 0);
+    const totalClaimDrain = Array.from(componentsByProvider.values()).reduce((sum, components) => {
+        return (sum +
+            components.reduce((componentSum, component) => {
+                return componentSum + computeLPClaimComponentValue(component, evaluationPoint);
+            }, 0));
+    }, 0);
+    const residualBacking = Math.max(0, totalBacking - totalTraderPnl - totalClaimDrain);
+    for (const row of input.lpPositions) {
+        const provider = row.provider.toLowerCase();
+        const components = componentsByProvider.get(provider) ?? [];
+        const claimValue = components.reduce((sum, component) => {
+            return sum + computeLPClaimComponentValue(component, evaluationPoint);
+        }, 0);
+        const liveShares = row.shares_number ?? providerShares.get(provider) ?? 0;
+        const poolShare = liveShares > 0 ? liveShares / totalShares : 0;
+        const currentValue = claimValue + poolShare * residualBacking;
+        const netDeposited = row.total_deposited - row.total_withdrawn;
+        if (components.length === 1) {
+            const component = components[0];
+            if (component == null) {
+                continue;
+            }
+            result.set(row.provider, {
+                currentValue,
+                unrealizedPnl: currentValue - netDeposited,
+                entryMean: component.mean,
+                entrySigma: component.sigma,
+                entryK: component.k,
+                componentLambda: component.lambda,
+                claimComponentCount: 1,
+            });
+            continue;
+        }
+        result.set(row.provider, {
+            currentValue,
+            unrealizedPnl: currentValue - netDeposited,
+            entryMean: null,
+            entrySigma: null,
+            entryK: null,
+            componentLambda: null,
+            claimComponentCount: components.length,
+        });
+    }
+    return result;
+}
+//# sourceMappingURL=valuation.js.map

package/dist/lp/valuation.js.map

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
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package/dist/services/ChainReader.d.ts

@@ -4,15 +4,31 @@ export interface MarketChainState {
     readonly mean: number | null;
     readonly sigma: number | null;
     readonly variance: number | null;
+    /** Bivariate second marginal mean (x2). */
+    readonly mean2?: number | null;
+    /** Bivariate second marginal std dev (x2). */
+    readonly sigma2?: number | null;
+    /** Bivariate second marginal variance (x2). */
+    readonly variance2?: number | null;
+    /** Bivariate correlation coefficient. */
+    readonly rho?: number | null;
     readonly isInitialized: boolean;
     readonly isPaused: boolean;
     readonly isSettled: boolean;
     readonly settlementValue: number | null;
+    /** Settlement point x1 for bivariate markets. */
+    readonly settlementX1?: number | null;
+    /** Settlement point x2 for bivariate markets. */
+    readonly settlementX2?: number | null;
     readonly totalShares: string | null;
     readonly totalBacking: string | null;
     readonly meanRaw: string | null;
     readonly sigmaRaw: string | null;
     readonly varianceRaw: string | null;
+    readonly mean2Raw?: string | null;
+    readonly sigma2Raw?: string | null;
+    readonly variance2Raw?: string | null;
+    readonly rhoRaw?: string | null;
     readonly k: number | null;
     readonly effectiveK: number | null;
     readonly payoutAmplifier: number;
@@ -33,6 +49,10 @@ export interface TraderPosition {
     readonly deltaCount: number;
     readonly claimed: boolean;
 }
+export interface MultinoulliDistributionSnapshot {
+    readonly outcomeCount: number;
+    readonly probs: readonly number[];
+}
 export declare class ChainReadError {
     readonly message: string;
     readonly cause?: unknown | undefined;
@@ -43,6 +63,7 @@ export interface ChainReaderService {
     readonly readMarketState: (marketAddress: string, marketType?: Exclude<MarketType, 'multinoulli'>) => Effect.Effect<MarketChainState, ChainReadError>;
     readonly readPosition: (marketAddress: string, trader: string, marketType?: Exclude<MarketType, 'multinoulli'>) => Effect.Effect<TraderPosition, ChainReadError>;
     readonly readMultinoulliMarketState: (marketAddress: string) => Effect.Effect<MultinoulliMarketChainState, ChainReadError>;
+    readonly readMultinoulliDistributionAtBlock: (marketAddress: string, blockNumber: number) => Effect.Effect<MultinoulliDistributionSnapshot, ChainReadError>;
     readonly readMultinoulliPosition: (marketAddress: string, trader: string) => Effect.Effect<MultinoulliTraderPosition, ChainReadError>;
     readonly readLPShares: (marketAddress: string, provider: string, marketType?: Exclude<MarketType, 'multinoulli'>) => Effect.Effect<{
         shares: string | null;