@techwavedev/agi-agent-kit 1.3.6 → 1.5.0

package/templates/skills/extended/frontend/risk-metrics-calculation/resources/implementation-playbook.md

@@ -1,554 +0,0 @@
-# Risk Metrics Calculation Implementation Playbook
-
-This file contains detailed patterns, checklists, and code samples referenced by the skill.
-
-# Risk Metrics Calculation
-
-Comprehensive risk measurement toolkit for portfolio management, including Value at Risk, Expected Shortfall, and drawdown analysis.
-
-## When to Use This Skill
-
-- Measuring portfolio risk
-- Implementing risk limits
-- Building risk dashboards
-- Calculating risk-adjusted returns
-- Setting position sizes
-- Regulatory reporting
-
-## Core Concepts
-
-### 1. Risk Metric Categories
-
-| Category | Metrics | Use Case |
-|----------|---------|----------|
-| **Volatility** | Std Dev, Beta | General risk |
-| **Tail Risk** | VaR, CVaR | Extreme losses |
-| **Drawdown** | Max DD, Calmar | Capital preservation |
-| **Risk-Adjusted** | Sharpe, Sortino | Performance |
-
-### 2. Time Horizons
-
-```
-Intraday:   Minute/hourly VaR for day traders
-Daily:      Standard risk reporting
-Weekly:     Rebalancing decisions
-Monthly:    Performance attribution
-Annual:     Strategic allocation
-```
-
-## Implementation
-
-### Pattern 1: Core Risk Metrics
-
-```python
-import numpy as np
-import pandas as pd
-from scipy import stats
-from typing import Dict, Optional, Tuple
-
-class RiskMetrics:
-    """Core risk metric calculations."""
-
-    def __init__(self, returns: pd.Series, rf_rate: float = 0.02):
-        """
-        Args:
-            returns: Series of periodic returns
-            rf_rate: Annual risk-free rate
-        """
-        self.returns = returns
-        self.rf_rate = rf_rate
-        self.ann_factor = 252  # Trading days per year
-
-    # Volatility Metrics
-    def volatility(self, annualized: bool = True) -> float:
-        """Standard deviation of returns."""
-        vol = self.returns.std()
-        if annualized:
-            vol *= np.sqrt(self.ann_factor)
-        return vol
-
-    def downside_deviation(self, threshold: float = 0, annualized: bool = True) -> float:
-        """Standard deviation of returns below threshold."""
-        downside = self.returns[self.returns < threshold]
-        if len(downside) == 0:
-            return 0.0
-        dd = downside.std()
-        if annualized:
-            dd *= np.sqrt(self.ann_factor)
-        return dd
-
-    def beta(self, market_returns: pd.Series) -> float:
-        """Beta relative to market."""
-        aligned = pd.concat([self.returns, market_returns], axis=1).dropna()
-        if len(aligned) < 2:
-            return np.nan
-        cov = np.cov(aligned.iloc[:, 0], aligned.iloc[:, 1])
-        return cov[0, 1] / cov[1, 1] if cov[1, 1] != 0 else 0
-
-    # Value at Risk
-    def var_historical(self, confidence: float = 0.95) -> float:
-        """Historical VaR at confidence level."""
-        return -np.percentile(self.returns, (1 - confidence) * 100)
-
-    def var_parametric(self, confidence: float = 0.95) -> float:
-        """Parametric VaR assuming normal distribution."""
-        z_score = stats.norm.ppf(confidence)
-        return self.returns.mean() - z_score * self.returns.std()
-
-    def var_cornish_fisher(self, confidence: float = 0.95) -> float:
-        """VaR with Cornish-Fisher expansion for non-normality."""
-        z = stats.norm.ppf(confidence)
-        s = stats.skew(self.returns)  # Skewness
-        k = stats.kurtosis(self.returns)  # Excess kurtosis
-
-        # Cornish-Fisher expansion
-        z_cf = (z + (z**2 - 1) * s / 6 +
-                (z**3 - 3*z) * k / 24 -
-                (2*z**3 - 5*z) * s**2 / 36)
-
-        return -(self.returns.mean() + z_cf * self.returns.std())
-
-    # Conditional VaR (Expected Shortfall)
-    def cvar(self, confidence: float = 0.95) -> float:
-        """Expected Shortfall / CVaR / Average VaR."""
-        var = self.var_historical(confidence)
-        return -self.returns[self.returns <= -var].mean()
-
-    # Drawdown Analysis
-    def drawdowns(self) -> pd.Series:
-        """Calculate drawdown series."""
-        cumulative = (1 + self.returns).cumprod()
-        running_max = cumulative.cummax()
-        return (cumulative - running_max) / running_max
-
-    def max_drawdown(self) -> float:
-        """Maximum drawdown."""
-        return self.drawdowns().min()
-
-    def avg_drawdown(self) -> float:
-        """Average drawdown."""
-        dd = self.drawdowns()
-        return dd[dd < 0].mean() if (dd < 0).any() else 0
-
-    def drawdown_duration(self) -> Dict[str, int]:
-        """Drawdown duration statistics."""
-        dd = self.drawdowns()
-        in_drawdown = dd < 0
-
-        # Find drawdown periods
-        drawdown_starts = in_drawdown & ~in_drawdown.shift(1).fillna(False)
-        drawdown_ends = ~in_drawdown & in_drawdown.shift(1).fillna(False)
-
-        durations = []
-        current_duration = 0
-
-        for i in range(len(dd)):
-            if in_drawdown.iloc[i]:
-                current_duration += 1
-            elif current_duration > 0:
-                durations.append(current_duration)
-                current_duration = 0
-
-        if current_duration > 0:
-            durations.append(current_duration)
-
-        return {
-            "max_duration": max(durations) if durations else 0,
-            "avg_duration": np.mean(durations) if durations else 0,
-            "current_duration": current_duration
-        }
-
-    # Risk-Adjusted Returns
-    def sharpe_ratio(self) -> float:
-        """Annualized Sharpe ratio."""
-        excess_return = self.returns.mean() * self.ann_factor - self.rf_rate
-        vol = self.volatility(annualized=True)
-        return excess_return / vol if vol > 0 else 0
-
-    def sortino_ratio(self) -> float:
-        """Sortino ratio using downside deviation."""
-        excess_return = self.returns.mean() * self.ann_factor - self.rf_rate
-        dd = self.downside_deviation(threshold=0, annualized=True)
-        return excess_return / dd if dd > 0 else 0
-
-    def calmar_ratio(self) -> float:
-        """Calmar ratio (return / max drawdown)."""
-        annual_return = (1 + self.returns).prod() ** (self.ann_factor / len(self.returns)) - 1
-        max_dd = abs(self.max_drawdown())
-        return annual_return / max_dd if max_dd > 0 else 0
-
-    def omega_ratio(self, threshold: float = 0) -> float:
-        """Omega ratio."""
-        returns_above = self.returns[self.returns > threshold] - threshold
-        returns_below = threshold - self.returns[self.returns <= threshold]
-
-        if returns_below.sum() == 0:
-            return np.inf
-
-        return returns_above.sum() / returns_below.sum()
-
-    # Information Ratio
-    def information_ratio(self, benchmark_returns: pd.Series) -> float:
-        """Information ratio vs benchmark."""
-        active_returns = self.returns - benchmark_returns
-        tracking_error = active_returns.std() * np.sqrt(self.ann_factor)
-        active_return = active_returns.mean() * self.ann_factor
-        return active_return / tracking_error if tracking_error > 0 else 0
-
-    # Summary
-    def summary(self) -> Dict[str, float]:
-        """Generate comprehensive risk summary."""
-        dd_stats = self.drawdown_duration()
-
-        return {
-            # Returns
-            "total_return": (1 + self.returns).prod() - 1,
-            "annual_return": (1 + self.returns).prod() ** (self.ann_factor / len(self.returns)) - 1,
-
-            # Volatility
-            "annual_volatility": self.volatility(),
-            "downside_deviation": self.downside_deviation(),
-
-            # VaR & CVaR
-            "var_95_historical": self.var_historical(0.95),
-            "var_99_historical": self.var_historical(0.99),
-            "cvar_95": self.cvar(0.95),
-
-            # Drawdowns
-            "max_drawdown": self.max_drawdown(),
-            "avg_drawdown": self.avg_drawdown(),
-            "max_drawdown_duration": dd_stats["max_duration"],
-
-            # Risk-Adjusted
-            "sharpe_ratio": self.sharpe_ratio(),
-            "sortino_ratio": self.sortino_ratio(),
-            "calmar_ratio": self.calmar_ratio(),
-            "omega_ratio": self.omega_ratio(),
-
-            # Distribution
-            "skewness": stats.skew(self.returns),
-            "kurtosis": stats.kurtosis(self.returns),
-        }
-```
-
-### Pattern 2: Portfolio Risk
-
-```python
-class PortfolioRisk:
-    """Portfolio-level risk calculations."""
-
-    def __init__(
-        self,
-        returns: pd.DataFrame,
-        weights: Optional[pd.Series] = None
-    ):
-        """
-        Args:
-            returns: DataFrame with asset returns (columns = assets)
-            weights: Portfolio weights (default: equal weight)
-        """
-        self.returns = returns
-        self.weights = weights if weights is not None else \
-            pd.Series(1/len(returns.columns), index=returns.columns)
-        self.ann_factor = 252
-
-    def portfolio_return(self) -> float:
-        """Weighted portfolio return."""
-        return (self.returns @ self.weights).mean() * self.ann_factor
-
-    def portfolio_volatility(self) -> float:
-        """Portfolio volatility."""
-        cov_matrix = self.returns.cov() * self.ann_factor
-        port_var = self.weights @ cov_matrix @ self.weights
-        return np.sqrt(port_var)
-
-    def marginal_risk_contribution(self) -> pd.Series:
-        """Marginal contribution to risk by asset."""
-        cov_matrix = self.returns.cov() * self.ann_factor
-        port_vol = self.portfolio_volatility()
-
-        # Marginal contribution
-        mrc = (cov_matrix @ self.weights) / port_vol
-        return mrc
-
-    def component_risk(self) -> pd.Series:
-        """Component contribution to total risk."""
-        mrc = self.marginal_risk_contribution()
-        return self.weights * mrc
-
-    def risk_parity_weights(self, target_vol: float = None) -> pd.Series:
-        """Calculate risk parity weights."""
-        from scipy.optimize import minimize
-
-        n = len(self.returns.columns)
-        cov_matrix = self.returns.cov() * self.ann_factor
-
-        def risk_budget_objective(weights):
-            port_vol = np.sqrt(weights @ cov_matrix @ weights)
-            mrc = (cov_matrix @ weights) / port_vol
-            rc = weights * mrc
-            target_rc = port_vol / n  # Equal risk contribution
-            return np.sum((rc - target_rc) ** 2)
-
-        constraints = [
-            {"type": "eq", "fun": lambda w: np.sum(w) - 1},  # Weights sum to 1
-        ]
-        bounds = [(0.01, 1.0) for _ in range(n)]  # Min 1%, max 100%
-        x0 = np.array([1/n] * n)
-
-        result = minimize(
-            risk_budget_objective,
-            x0,
-            method="SLSQP",
-            bounds=bounds,
-            constraints=constraints
-        )
-
-        return pd.Series(result.x, index=self.returns.columns)
-
-    def correlation_matrix(self) -> pd.DataFrame:
-        """Asset correlation matrix."""
-        return self.returns.corr()
-
-    def diversification_ratio(self) -> float:
-        """Diversification ratio (higher = more diversified)."""
-        asset_vols = self.returns.std() * np.sqrt(self.ann_factor)
-        weighted_vol = (self.weights * asset_vols).sum()
-        port_vol = self.portfolio_volatility()
-        return weighted_vol / port_vol if port_vol > 0 else 1
-
-    def tracking_error(self, benchmark_returns: pd.Series) -> float:
-        """Tracking error vs benchmark."""
-        port_returns = self.returns @ self.weights
-        active_returns = port_returns - benchmark_returns
-        return active_returns.std() * np.sqrt(self.ann_factor)
-
-    def conditional_correlation(
-        self,
-        threshold_percentile: float = 10
-    ) -> pd.DataFrame:
-        """Correlation during stress periods."""
-        port_returns = self.returns @ self.weights
-        threshold = np.percentile(port_returns, threshold_percentile)
-        stress_mask = port_returns <= threshold
-        return self.returns[stress_mask].corr()
-```
-
-### Pattern 3: Rolling Risk Metrics
-
-```python
-class RollingRiskMetrics:
-    """Rolling window risk calculations."""
-
-    def __init__(self, returns: pd.Series, window: int = 63):
-        """
-        Args:
-            returns: Return series
-            window: Rolling window size (default: 63 = ~3 months)
-        """
-        self.returns = returns
-        self.window = window
-
-    def rolling_volatility(self, annualized: bool = True) -> pd.Series:
-        """Rolling volatility."""
-        vol = self.returns.rolling(self.window).std()
-        if annualized:
-            vol *= np.sqrt(252)
-        return vol
-
-    def rolling_sharpe(self, rf_rate: float = 0.02) -> pd.Series:
-        """Rolling Sharpe ratio."""
-        rolling_return = self.returns.rolling(self.window).mean() * 252
-        rolling_vol = self.rolling_volatility()
-        return (rolling_return - rf_rate) / rolling_vol
-
-    def rolling_var(self, confidence: float = 0.95) -> pd.Series:
-        """Rolling historical VaR."""
-        return self.returns.rolling(self.window).apply(
-            lambda x: -np.percentile(x, (1 - confidence) * 100),
-            raw=True
-        )
-
-    def rolling_max_drawdown(self) -> pd.Series:
-        """Rolling maximum drawdown."""
-        def max_dd(returns):
-            cumulative = (1 + returns).cumprod()
-            running_max = cumulative.cummax()
-            drawdowns = (cumulative - running_max) / running_max
-            return drawdowns.min()
-
-        return self.returns.rolling(self.window).apply(max_dd, raw=False)
-
-    def rolling_beta(self, market_returns: pd.Series) -> pd.Series:
-        """Rolling beta vs market."""
-        def calc_beta(window_data):
-            port_ret = window_data.iloc[:, 0]
-            mkt_ret = window_data.iloc[:, 1]
-            cov = np.cov(port_ret, mkt_ret)
-            return cov[0, 1] / cov[1, 1] if cov[1, 1] != 0 else 0
-
-        combined = pd.concat([self.returns, market_returns], axis=1)
-        return combined.rolling(self.window).apply(
-            lambda x: calc_beta(x.to_frame()),
-            raw=False
-        ).iloc[:, 0]
-
-    def volatility_regime(
-        self,
-        low_threshold: float = 0.10,
-        high_threshold: float = 0.20
-    ) -> pd.Series:
-        """Classify volatility regime."""
-        vol = self.rolling_volatility()
-
-        def classify(v):
-            if v < low_threshold:
-                return "low"
-            elif v > high_threshold:
-                return "high"
-            else:
-                return "normal"
-
-        return vol.apply(classify)
-```
-
-### Pattern 4: Stress Testing
-
-```python
-class StressTester:
-    """Historical and hypothetical stress testing."""
-
-    # Historical crisis periods
-    HISTORICAL_SCENARIOS = {
-        "2008_financial_crisis": ("2008-09-01", "2009-03-31"),
-        "2020_covid_crash": ("2020-02-19", "2020-03-23"),
-        "2022_rate_hikes": ("2022-01-01", "2022-10-31"),
-        "dot_com_bust": ("2000-03-01", "2002-10-01"),
-        "flash_crash_2010": ("2010-05-06", "2010-05-06"),
-    }
-
-    def __init__(self, returns: pd.Series, weights: pd.Series = None):
-        self.returns = returns
-        self.weights = weights
-
-    def historical_stress_test(
-        self,
-        scenario_name: str,
-        historical_data: pd.DataFrame
-    ) -> Dict[str, float]:
-        """Test portfolio against historical crisis period."""
-        if scenario_name not in self.HISTORICAL_SCENARIOS:
-            raise ValueError(f"Unknown scenario: {scenario_name}")
-
-        start, end = self.HISTORICAL_SCENARIOS[scenario_name]
-
-        # Get returns during crisis
-        crisis_returns = historical_data.loc[start:end]
-
-        if self.weights is not None:
-            port_returns = (crisis_returns @ self.weights)
-        else:
-            port_returns = crisis_returns
-
-        total_return = (1 + port_returns).prod() - 1
-        max_dd = self._calculate_max_dd(port_returns)
-        worst_day = port_returns.min()
-
-        return {
-            "scenario": scenario_name,
-            "period": f"{start} to {end}",
-            "total_return": total_return,
-            "max_drawdown": max_dd,
-            "worst_day": worst_day,
-            "volatility": port_returns.std() * np.sqrt(252)
-        }
-
-    def hypothetical_stress_test(
-        self,
-        shocks: Dict[str, float]
-    ) -> float:
-        """
-        Test portfolio against hypothetical shocks.
-
-        Args:
-            shocks: Dict of {asset: shock_return}
-        """
-        if self.weights is None:
-            raise ValueError("Weights required for hypothetical stress test")
-
-        total_impact = 0
-        for asset, shock in shocks.items():
-            if asset in self.weights.index:
-                total_impact += self.weights[asset] * shock
-
-        return total_impact
-
-    def monte_carlo_stress(
-        self,
-        n_simulations: int = 10000,
-        horizon_days: int = 21,
-        vol_multiplier: float = 2.0
-    ) -> Dict[str, float]:
-        """Monte Carlo stress test with elevated volatility."""
-        mean = self.returns.mean()
-        vol = self.returns.std() * vol_multiplier
-
-        simulations = np.random.normal(
-            mean,
-            vol,
-            (n_simulations, horizon_days)
-        )
-
-        total_returns = (1 + simulations).prod(axis=1) - 1
-
-        return {
-            "expected_loss": -total_returns.mean(),
-            "var_95": -np.percentile(total_returns, 5),
-            "var_99": -np.percentile(total_returns, 1),
-            "worst_case": -total_returns.min(),
-            "prob_10pct_loss": (total_returns < -0.10).mean()
-        }
-
-    def _calculate_max_dd(self, returns: pd.Series) -> float:
-        cumulative = (1 + returns).cumprod()
-        running_max = cumulative.cummax()
-        drawdowns = (cumulative - running_max) / running_max
-        return drawdowns.min()
-```
-
-## Quick Reference
-
-```python
-# Daily usage
-metrics = RiskMetrics(returns)
-print(f"Sharpe: {metrics.sharpe_ratio():.2f}")
-print(f"Max DD: {metrics.max_drawdown():.2%}")
-print(f"VaR 95%: {metrics.var_historical(0.95):.2%}")
-
-# Full summary
-summary = metrics.summary()
-for metric, value in summary.items():
-    print(f"{metric}: {value:.4f}")
-```
-
-## Best Practices
-
-### Do's
-- **Use multiple metrics** - No single metric captures all risk
-- **Consider tail risk** - VaR isn't enough, use CVaR
-- **Rolling analysis** - Risk changes over time
-- **Stress test** - Historical and hypothetical
-- **Document assumptions** - Distribution, lookback, etc.
-
-### Don'ts
-- **Don't rely on VaR alone** - Underestimates tail risk
-- **Don't assume normality** - Returns are fat-tailed
-- **Don't ignore correlation** - Increases in stress
-- **Don't use short lookbacks** - Miss regime changes
-- **Don't forget transaction costs** - Affects realized risk
-
-## Resources
-
-- [Risk Management and Financial Institutions (John Hull)](https://www.amazon.com/Risk-Management-Financial-Institutions-5th/dp/1119448115)
-- [Quantitative Risk Management (McNeil, Frey, Embrechts)](https://www.amazon.com/Quantitative-Risk-Management-Techniques-Princeton/dp/0691166277)
-- [pyfolio Documentation](https://quantopian.github.io/pyfolio/)

package/templates/skills/extended/frontend/security-bluebook-builder/SKILL.md

@@ -1,63 +0,0 @@
----
-name: security-bluebook-builder
-description: "Build security Blue Books for sensitive apps"
-source: "https://github.com/SHADOWPR0/security-bluebook-builder"
-risk: safe
----
-
-# Security Bluebook Builder
-
-## Overview
-
-Build security Blue Books for sensitive apps
-
-## When to Use This Skill
-
-Use this skill when you need to work with build security blue books for sensitive apps.
-
-## Instructions
-
-This skill provides guidance and patterns for build security blue books for sensitive apps.
-
-For more information, see the [source repository](https://github.com/SHADOWPR0/security-bluebook-builder).
-
-
----
-
-## 🧠 AGI Framework Integration
-
-> **Adapted for [@techwavedev/agi-agent-kit](https://www.npmjs.com/package/@techwavedev/agi-agent-kit)**
-> Original source: [antigravity-awesome-skills](https://github.com/sickn33/antigravity-awesome-skills)
-
-### Hybrid Memory Integration (Qdrant + BM25)
-
-Before executing complex tasks with this skill:
-```bash
-python3 execution/memory_manager.py auto --query "<task summary>"
-```
-
-**Decision Tree:**
-- **Cache hit?** Use cached response directly — no need to re-process.
-- **Memory match?** Inject `context_chunks` into your reasoning.
-- **No match?** Proceed normally, then store results:
-
-```bash
-python3 execution/memory_manager.py store \
-  --content "Description of what was decided/solved" \
-  --type decision \
-  --tags security-bluebook-builder <relevant-tags>
-```
-
-> **Note:** Storing automatically updates both Vector (Qdrant) and Keyword (BM25) indices.
-
-### Agent Team Collaboration
-
-- **Strategy**: This skill communicates via the shared memory system.
-- **Orchestration**: Invoked by `orchestrator` via intelligent routing.
-- **Context Sharing**: Always read previous agent outputs from memory before starting.
-
-### Local LLM Support
-
-When available, use local Ollama models for embedding and lightweight inference:
-- Embeddings: `nomic-embed-text` via Qdrant memory system
-- Lightweight analysis: Local models reduce API costs for repetitive patterns