@tangle-network/agent-eval 1.0.5 → 1.0.7

package/dist/{judge-gate-C9sLLJ-v.js → judge-gate-DMlX38B7.js}

@@ -78,7 +78,7 @@ async function withJudgeRetry(judgeFn, policy = {}) {
 	let totalAttempts = 0;
 	const attemptErrors = [];
 	let lastError;
-	for (const model of models) for (let attempt = 0; attempt < maxAttempts; attempt++) {
+	retryModels: for (const model of models) for (let attempt = 0; attempt < maxAttempts; attempt++) {
 		totalAttempts += 1;
 		const controller = new AbortController();
 		const timer = setTimeout(() => controller.abort(/* @__PURE__ */ new Error("TimeoutError")), timeoutMs);
@@ -101,13 +101,7 @@ async function withJudgeRetry(judgeFn, policy = {}) {
 				model: model ?? "(default)",
 				error: errObj.message
 			});
-			if (!isRetryable(errObj)) return {
-				value: null,
-				succeeded: false,
-				attempts: totalAttempts,
-				error: errObj,
-				attemptErrors
-			};
+			if (!isRetryable(errObj)) break retryModels;
 			if (attempt < maxAttempts - 1) await sleep(backoff(attempt));
 		}
 	}
@@ -708,4 +702,4 @@ function snapshotFromJudgeAgreement(agreement, options = {}) {
 }
 export { analyzeSeries as _, judgeGateDecision as a, snapshotFromJudgeAgreement as c, judgeSentinelReport as d, snapshotFromAgreement as f, withJudgeRetry as g, validateSentinelSnapshot as h, assertJudgeMayGate as i, evalHealthStamp as l, snapshotFromSentinelSet as m, JudgeGateRefusedError as n, measureJudgeAgreement as o, snapshotFromCalibration as p, addCalibrationVerdicts as r, registerCalibrationSet as s, DEFAULT_JUDGE_GATE_POLICY as t, fileSentinelStore as u };
 
-//# sourceMappingURL=judge-gate-C9sLLJ-v.js.map
+//# sourceMappingURL=judge-gate-DMlX38B7.js.map

package/dist/judge-gate-DMlX38B7.js.map

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+{"version":3,"file":"judge-gate-DMlX38B7.js","names":["parseIso"],"sources":["../src/series-convergence.ts","../src/judge-retry.ts","../src/meta-eval/sentinel.ts","../src/meta-eval/judge-gate.ts"],"sourcesContent":["/**\n * Series convergence — detects whether a sequence of scalar measurements\n * is stabilizing, drifting, or noisy. It reads drift *across* runs, e.g.\n * \"are my nightly eval scores stabilizing?\".\n *\n * Three signals:\n *   - stabilized: last K values have low variance (< epsilon) — done\n *   - drifting:   recent trend is monotonic and beyond noise — regressing or improving\n *   - noisy:      neither — keep iterating, but flag as untrustworthy for gating\n */\n\nexport interface SeriesConvergenceOptions {\n  /** Window size for \"recent\" analysis (default 5). */\n  window?: number\n  /** Coefficient-of-variation threshold below which the window is stabilized (default 0.05 = 5%). */\n  stableCv?: number\n  /** Minimum monotone run length to call drift (default 3). */\n  driftRun?: number\n}\n\nexport interface SeriesConvergenceResult {\n  state: 'stabilized' | 'drifting-up' | 'drifting-down' | 'noisy' | 'insufficient-data'\n  windowMean: number\n  windowCv: number\n  /** Longest monotonic run at the tail of the series (positive for up, negative for down). */\n  tailRun: number\n  /** True when n ≥ window AND windowCv ≤ stableCv. */\n  stable: boolean\n}\n\nexport function analyzeSeries(\n  values: number[],\n  options: SeriesConvergenceOptions = {},\n): SeriesConvergenceResult {\n  const window = options.window ?? 5\n  const stableCv = options.stableCv ?? 0.05\n  const driftRun = options.driftRun ?? 3\n\n  if (values.length < Math.max(2, Math.min(window, 3))) {\n    return { state: 'insufficient-data', windowMean: 0, windowCv: 0, tailRun: 0, stable: false }\n  }\n\n  const tail = values.slice(-window)\n  const mean = tail.reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0) / tail.length\n  const variance = tail.reduce((acc, v) => acc + (v - mean) ** 2, 0) / tail.length\n  const stdDev = Math.sqrt(variance)\n  const refMean = Math.abs(mean) > 1e-9 ? Math.abs(mean) : 1\n  const cv = stdDev / refMean\n  const stable = tail.length >= window && cv <= stableCv\n\n  // Tail monotonic run: count how many consecutive strictly-increasing (or decreasing)\n  // steps end at the final value.\n  let tailRun = 0\n  let direction: 1 | -1 | 0 = 0\n  for (let i = values.length - 1; i > 0; i--) {\n    const delta = values[i]! - values[i - 1]!\n    if (delta === 0) break\n    const dir = delta > 0 ? 1 : -1\n    if (direction === 0) direction = dir\n    if (dir !== direction) break\n    tailRun += dir\n  }\n\n  let state: SeriesConvergenceResult['state']\n  if (stable) {\n    state = 'stabilized'\n  } else if (Math.abs(tailRun) >= driftRun) {\n    state = tailRun > 0 ? 'drifting-up' : 'drifting-down'\n  } else {\n    state = 'noisy'\n  }\n\n  return { state, windowMean: mean, windowCv: cv, tailRun, stable }\n}\n","/**\n * Wrap a single judge LLM call with retry, optional fallback-model\n * rotation, exponential backoff, and a typed `JudgeRetryOutcome`. Callers\n * MUST inspect `succeeded` before using `value`; on failure the library\n * returns `value: null` rather than substituting a default, so a judge\n * abort cannot silently corrupt a downstream composite.\n *\n * Reporting contract: callers ship `TrialResult.judgeSucceeded = succeeded`\n * and `TrialResult.judgeAttempts = attempts` so `aggregateTrialsByMode`\n * with `mode: 'exclude-failed'` drops the trial.\n */\n\nimport { backoffMs, isTransientLlmError } from './llm-client'\n\n/** Retry policy for judge LLM calls. */\nexport interface JudgeRetryPolicy {\n  /** Max attempts per model. Default 3 (one initial + two retries). */\n  maxAttempts?: number\n  /** Per-attempt timeout in ms. Default 300_000. */\n  timeoutMs?: number\n  /**\n   * Models to try, in order. The first model is the primary; subsequent\n   * models are fallbacks invoked only when ALL retries on the previous\n   * model have been exhausted. Example: `['claude-code/sonnet', 'kimi-code/k2p6']`\n   * runs claude-code up to maxAttempts times, then falls back to kimi.\n   * If omitted, the caller's judge function controls model selection and\n   * the retries apply to that single model.\n   */\n  models?: readonly string[]\n  /** Exponential backoff function, default `attempt → min(500 * 2^attempt, 16_000)`. */\n  backoffMs?: (attempt: number) => number\n  /**\n   * Predicate deciding whether an error should trigger a retry. Defaults to\n   * `isTransientLlmError` — the package-wide classifier shared with\n   * `callLlm` — which retries aborts/timeouts, network faults, HTTP/2\n   * transport faults, and any `LlmCallError` with status in {429,502,503,504}.\n   * JSON-parse and schema-rejection errors are NOT retriable (the model\n   * needs prompt adjustment, not another shot).\n   */\n  isRetryable?: (err: unknown) => boolean\n}\n\n/** Outcome of a wrapped judge invocation. */\nexport interface JudgeRetryOutcome<T> {\n  /** The judge's returned value when `succeeded === true`. */\n  value: T | null\n  /** True iff one of the attempts completed without throwing. */\n  succeeded: boolean\n  /** Total attempts made across all models. */\n  attempts: number\n  /** Which model the successful attempt used (when succeeded). */\n  modelUsed?: string\n  /** Last error captured when `succeeded === false`. */\n  error?: Error\n  /** Per-attempt error log for forensics. */\n  attemptErrors: Array<{ attempt: number; model: string; error: string }>\n}\n\nconst DEFAULT_MAX_ATTEMPTS = 3\nconst DEFAULT_TIMEOUT_MS = 300_000\n\nfunction sleep(ms: number): Promise<void> {\n  return new Promise((resolve) => setTimeout(resolve, ms))\n}\n\n/**\n * Wrap a judge call with retry + fallback-model + typed outcome semantics.\n *\n * The `judgeFn` signature is `(model: string, signal: AbortSignal) => Promise<T>`.\n * The signal will be aborted at `timeoutMs`. Callers should pass the signal\n * to their underlying fetch/SDK call so the abort actually fires.\n *\n * Returns a typed outcome — callers MUST inspect `succeeded` before using\n * `value`. The library refuses to default to a silent zero score because a\n * synthetic zero is indistinguishable from a real low score downstream.\n */\nexport async function withJudgeRetry<T>(\n  judgeFn: (model: string, signal: AbortSignal) => Promise<T>,\n  policy: JudgeRetryPolicy = {},\n): Promise<JudgeRetryOutcome<T>> {\n  const maxAttempts = policy.maxAttempts ?? DEFAULT_MAX_ATTEMPTS\n  const timeoutMs = policy.timeoutMs ?? DEFAULT_TIMEOUT_MS\n  const backoff = policy.backoffMs ?? backoffMs\n  const isRetryable = policy.isRetryable ?? isTransientLlmError\n  const models =\n    policy.models && policy.models.length > 0 ? policy.models : [undefined as unknown as string]\n\n  let totalAttempts = 0\n  const attemptErrors: JudgeRetryOutcome<T>['attemptErrors'] = []\n  let lastError: Error | undefined\n\n  retryModels: for (const model of models) {\n    for (let attempt = 0; attempt < maxAttempts; attempt++) {\n      totalAttempts += 1\n      const controller = new AbortController()\n      const timer = setTimeout(() => controller.abort(new Error('TimeoutError')), timeoutMs)\n      try {\n        const value = await judgeFn(model as string, controller.signal)\n        clearTimeout(timer)\n        return {\n          value,\n          succeeded: true,\n          attempts: totalAttempts,\n          modelUsed: model,\n          attemptErrors,\n        }\n      } catch (err) {\n        clearTimeout(timer)\n        const errObj = err instanceof Error ? err : new Error(String(err))\n        lastError = errObj\n        attemptErrors.push({\n          attempt: totalAttempts,\n          model: model ?? '(default)',\n          error: errObj.message,\n        })\n        // A permanent error ends the whole rotation and retains this final failure.\n        if (!isRetryable(errObj)) break retryModels\n        if (attempt < maxAttempts - 1) {\n          await sleep(backoff(attempt))\n        }\n      }\n    }\n    // Exhausted attempts on this model — fall through to next model in the\n    // rotation (if any). The backoff between MODEL rotations is the same\n    // as the last per-attempt backoff (already slept above).\n  }\n\n  return {\n    value: null,\n    succeeded: false,\n    attempts: totalAttempts,\n    error: lastError,\n    attemptErrors,\n  }\n}\n","/**\n * Judge sentinel — eval trustworthiness as a continuously measured,\n * alarmed trend.\n *\n * Judges are models; models change underneath us; calibration decays.\n * This module composes three existing instruments into one loop:\n *\n *   snapshot — adapters turn real instrument outputs (`calibrateJudge` /\n *              `calibrateJudgeContinuous`, `corpusInterRaterAgreement` /\n *              `continuousAgreement`, a rerun sentinel golden set) into\n *              `SentinelSnapshot`s\n *   series   — `analyzeSeries` (src/series-convergence) classifies each\n *              judge×metric history as stabilized / drifting / noisy\n *   alarm    — `judgeSentinelReport` turns trends + thresholds into named\n *              alarms; `evalHealthStamp` is the tiny object a campaign\n *              attaches to its verdicts\n *\n * Alarm conditions:\n *   - convergence state `drifting-down` on any tracked metric\n *   - irr below `minIrr`\n *   - calibrationKappa / sentinelPassRate dropped vs the series baseline\n *     beyond `maxKappaDrop` / `maxSentinelDrop`\n *   - judge model changed with no post-change golden-grounded snapshot\n *     (the silent-upgrade trap: judges agreeing with each other after a\n *     model swap proves nothing — only re-measuring against gold does)\n *   - newest snapshot older than `staleAfterDays` relative to `asOf`\n *\n * Wire-in: run the snapshot adapters from a post-campaign hook or a\n * nightly job, append to a `SentinelStore`, then compute\n * `judgeSentinelReport(await store.history(), { asOf })` with `asOf` =\n * the campaign timestamp. Attach `evalHealthStamp(report)` to campaign\n * verdicts: an alarmed sentinel means every downstream verdict carries\n * an integrity warning until the judge is recalibrated.\n *\n * The module is clock-free — every timestamp (`at`, `asOf`) is\n * caller-supplied ISO-8601, so reports are reproducible.\n */\n\nimport { ValidationError } from '../errors'\nimport type {\n  CalibrationResult,\n  CandidateScore,\n  ContinuousAgreement,\n  ContinuousCalibrationResult,\n  GoldenItem,\n} from '../judge-calibration'\nimport {\n  analyzeSeries,\n  type SeriesConvergenceOptions,\n  type SeriesConvergenceResult,\n} from '../series-convergence'\nimport type { CorpusAgreementReport } from '../statistics'\n\nconst SENTINEL_METRIC_NAMES = ['irr', 'calibrationKappa', 'sentinelPassRate'] as const\n\nexport type SentinelMetricName = (typeof SENTINEL_METRIC_NAMES)[number]\n\nexport interface SentinelMetrics {\n  /** Inter-rater reliability — ICC(2,1) from agreement instruments. */\n  irr?: number\n  /** Weighted κ vs the human golden set (`calibrateJudge*`). */\n  calibrationKappa?: number\n  /** Fraction of a fixed sentinel golden set the judge still scores within tolerance. */\n  sentinelPassRate?: number\n}\n\nexport interface SentinelSnapshot {\n  /** Caller-supplied ISO-8601 timestamp — the module never reads a clock. */\n  at: string\n  judgeId: string\n  /** Exact model identity behind the judge (pin the full version string). */\n  judgeModel: string\n  /**\n   * Metrics measured at `at`. May be empty: an empty-metrics snapshot is a\n   * model-change marker — it records the new `judgeModel` immediately and\n   * the silent-upgrade alarm stays raised until a golden-grounded snapshot\n   * (calibrationKappa or sentinelPassRate) follows.\n   */\n  metrics: SentinelMetrics\n}\n\n/** Identity + timestamp the caller supplies alongside an instrument output. */\nexport interface SnapshotMeta {\n  at: string\n  judgeId: string\n  judgeModel: string\n}\n\nfunction parseIso(value: string, label: string): number {\n  const ms = typeof value === 'string' ? Date.parse(value) : NaN\n  if (!Number.isFinite(ms)) {\n    throw new ValidationError(\n      `judge-sentinel: ${label} is not a parseable ISO timestamp: ${JSON.stringify(value)}`,\n    )\n  }\n  return ms\n}\n\n/** Shape guard for snapshots crossing a boundary (store append, JSONL load, report input). */\nexport function validateSentinelSnapshot(snapshot: SentinelSnapshot, source = 'snapshot'): void {\n  parseIso(snapshot.at, `${source}.at`)\n  if (typeof snapshot.judgeId !== 'string' || snapshot.judgeId.length === 0) {\n    throw new ValidationError(`judge-sentinel: ${source}.judgeId must be a non-empty string`)\n  }\n  if (typeof snapshot.judgeModel !== 'string' || snapshot.judgeModel.length === 0) {\n    throw new ValidationError(`judge-sentinel: ${source}.judgeModel must be a non-empty string`)\n  }\n  if (snapshot.metrics === null || typeof snapshot.metrics !== 'object') {\n    throw new ValidationError(`judge-sentinel: ${source}.metrics must be an object (may be empty)`)\n  }\n  for (const [key, value] of Object.entries(snapshot.metrics)) {\n    if (!(SENTINEL_METRIC_NAMES as readonly string[]).includes(key)) {\n      // A typo'd key would silently never trend — reject instead.\n      throw new ValidationError(\n        `judge-sentinel: ${source}.metrics carries unknown key \"${key}\" — known: ${SENTINEL_METRIC_NAMES.join(', ')}`,\n      )\n    }\n    if (value !== undefined && !Number.isFinite(value)) {\n      throw new ValidationError(\n        `judge-sentinel: ${source}.metrics.${key} is not a finite number: ${String(value)}`,\n      )\n    }\n  }\n}\n\n// ── Snapshot adapters — real instrument output → SentinelSnapshot ───\n\n/**\n * From `calibrateJudge` / `calibrateJudgeContinuous` output. Prefers the\n * un-rounded continuous κ_w when the report carries one (integer κ\n * discards information for [0,1] judges).\n */\nexport function snapshotFromCalibration(\n  report: CalibrationResult | ContinuousCalibrationResult,\n  meta: SnapshotMeta,\n): SentinelSnapshot {\n  const kappa = 'weightedKappaContinuous' in report ? report.weightedKappaContinuous : report.kappa\n  if (!Number.isFinite(kappa)) {\n    throw new ValidationError(\n      `snapshotFromCalibration: κ is not finite (n=${report.n}) — calibrate against ≥2 joined golden items before snapshotting`,\n    )\n  }\n  const snapshot: SentinelSnapshot = { ...meta, metrics: { calibrationKappa: kappa } }\n  validateSentinelSnapshot(snapshot)\n  return snapshot\n}\n\n/**\n * From `corpusInterRaterAgreement` (statistics.ts) or `continuousAgreement`\n * (judge-calibration.ts) output. IRR = ICC(2,1) — the reliability\n * coefficient both instruments compute. For ensemble-level agreement,\n * `meta.judgeId` names the ensemble and `meta.judgeModel` pins its\n * composition (e.g. a joined list of member model strings).\n */\nexport function snapshotFromAgreement(\n  report: CorpusAgreementReport | ContinuousAgreement,\n  meta: SnapshotMeta,\n): SentinelSnapshot {\n  const irr = 'overallIcc' in report ? report.overallIcc : report.icc\n  if (!Number.isFinite(irr)) {\n    throw new ValidationError(\n      'snapshotFromAgreement: ICC is not finite — agreement needs ≥2 raters and ≥2 complete items',\n    )\n  }\n  const snapshot: SentinelSnapshot = { ...meta, metrics: { irr } }\n  validateSentinelSnapshot(snapshot)\n  return snapshot\n}\n\nexport interface SentinelSetOptions {\n  /** Max |judge − human| for an item to count as passed. Default 0.1 (tuned for [0,1] scores). */\n  tolerance?: number\n}\n\n/**\n * From a rerun of a fixed sentinel golden set: the same `GoldenItem`s the\n * judge was originally calibrated on, re-scored periodically. Pass rate =\n * fraction of joined items where the judge stays within `tolerance` of the\n * human score. Items the judge didn't score are excluded from the\n * denominator; zero joined items is an error, not a 0% pass rate.\n */\nexport function snapshotFromSentinelSet(\n  scores: CandidateScore[],\n  golden: GoldenItem[],\n  meta: SnapshotMeta,\n  options: SentinelSetOptions = {},\n): SentinelSnapshot {\n  const tolerance = options.tolerance ?? 0.1\n  if (!Number.isFinite(tolerance) || tolerance < 0) {\n    throw new ValidationError(\n      `snapshotFromSentinelSet: tolerance must be a finite number ≥ 0, got ${tolerance}`,\n    )\n  }\n  const goldenById = new Map<string, number>()\n  for (const item of golden) {\n    if (!Number.isFinite(item.humanScore)) {\n      throw new ValidationError(\n        `snapshotFromSentinelSet: golden item \"${item.itemId}\" has a non-finite humanScore`,\n      )\n    }\n    if (goldenById.has(item.itemId)) {\n      throw new ValidationError(`snapshotFromSentinelSet: duplicate golden itemId \"${item.itemId}\"`)\n    }\n    goldenById.set(item.itemId, item.humanScore)\n  }\n  let joined = 0\n  let passed = 0\n  for (const s of scores) {\n    const human = goldenById.get(s.itemId)\n    if (human === undefined) continue\n    if (!Number.isFinite(s.score)) {\n      throw new ValidationError(\n        `snapshotFromSentinelSet: judge score for item \"${s.itemId}\" is not finite`,\n      )\n    }\n    joined++\n    if (Math.abs(s.score - human) <= tolerance) passed++\n  }\n  if (joined === 0) {\n    throw new ValidationError(\n      'snapshotFromSentinelSet: no judge scores joined the golden set — itemIds mismatch or empty sentinel run',\n    )\n  }\n  const snapshot: SentinelSnapshot = { ...meta, metrics: { sentinelPassRate: passed / joined } }\n  validateSentinelSnapshot(snapshot)\n  return snapshot\n}\n\n// ── Persistence ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────\n\nexport interface SentinelStore {\n  append(snapshot: SentinelSnapshot): Promise<void>\n  /** All snapshots (optionally for one judge), in append order. */\n  history(judgeId?: string): Promise<SentinelSnapshot[]>\n}\n\n/**\n * JSONL store — one snapshot per line, appended atomically per call.\n * A corrupt or shape-invalid line is a loud error naming the file and\n * line number: a sentinel history that silently drops records would\n * defeat the drift detection it exists to provide.\n */\nexport function fileSentinelStore(path: string): SentinelStore {\n  return {\n    async append(snapshot) {\n      validateSentinelSnapshot(snapshot)\n      const fs = await import('node:fs/promises')\n      const pathMod = await import('node:path')\n      await fs.mkdir(pathMod.dirname(path), { recursive: true })\n      await fs.appendFile(path, `${JSON.stringify(snapshot)}\\n`, 'utf8')\n    },\n    async history(judgeId) {\n      const fs = await import('node:fs/promises')\n      let raw: string\n      try {\n        raw = await fs.readFile(path, 'utf8')\n      } catch (err) {\n        if ((err as NodeJS.ErrnoException).code === 'ENOENT') return []\n        throw err\n      }\n      const lines = raw.split('\\n')\n      const snapshots: SentinelSnapshot[] = []\n      for (let i = 0; i < lines.length; i++) {\n        const line = lines[i]!\n        if (line.trim().length === 0) continue\n        let parsed: unknown\n        try {\n          parsed = JSON.parse(line)\n        } catch (err) {\n          throw new ValidationError(\n            `judge-sentinel: store at ${path} has a corrupt JSONL line ${i + 1}: ${(err as Error).message}`,\n          )\n        }\n        const snapshot = parsed as SentinelSnapshot\n        validateSentinelSnapshot(snapshot, `${path}:${i + 1}`)\n        snapshots.push(snapshot)\n      }\n      return judgeId === undefined ? snapshots : snapshots.filter((s) => s.judgeId === judgeId)\n    },\n  }\n}\n\n// ── Trend report ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────\n\nexport interface SentinelThresholds {\n  /** Floor for irr — below it the judge ensemble is unreliable regardless of trend. Default 0.6. */\n  minIrr?: number\n  /** Max tolerated calibrationKappa drop vs the series baseline. Default 0.15. */\n  maxKappaDrop?: number\n  /** Max tolerated sentinelPassRate drop vs the series baseline. Default 0.1. */\n  maxSentinelDrop?: number\n  /** Newest snapshot older than this (days, vs asOf) = the sentinel itself went blind. Default 30. */\n  staleAfterDays?: number\n}\n\nexport interface JudgeSentinelOptions {\n  /** Caller-supplied ISO timestamp staleness is measured against. */\n  asOf: string\n  thresholds?: SentinelThresholds\n  /** Forwarded to `analyzeSeries` (window, stableCv, driftRun). */\n  convergence?: SeriesConvergenceOptions\n}\n\nexport interface SentinelTrend {\n  judgeId: string\n  metric: SentinelMetricName\n  /** Verbatim `analyzeSeries` state for this judge×metric history. */\n  state: SeriesConvergenceResult['state']\n  /** Newest value in the series. */\n  current: number\n  /** Oldest value in the series — the reference the drop thresholds compare against. */\n  baseline: number\n  /** current − baseline (signed; negative = decayed). */\n  drift: number\n  alarmed: boolean\n  reason?: string\n}\n\nexport interface SentinelReport {\n  perJudge: SentinelTrend[]\n  alarms: string[]\n  healthy: boolean\n  /**\n   * `judgeId:metric` pairs with too few snapshots for the convergence\n   * machine. Named, not counted — a blind spot you can't see is a blind\n   * spot you won't fix. Floor/drop checks still apply to thin series, so\n   * insufficient history alone never masks an alarm.\n   */\n  insufficientHistory: string[]\n}\n\nconst MS_PER_DAY = 86_400_000\n\nexport function judgeSentinelReport(\n  history: SentinelSnapshot[],\n  opts: JudgeSentinelOptions,\n): SentinelReport {\n  const asOfMs = parseIso(opts.asOf, 'asOf')\n  const minIrr = opts.thresholds?.minIrr ?? 0.6\n  const maxKappaDrop = opts.thresholds?.maxKappaDrop ?? 0.15\n  const maxSentinelDrop = opts.thresholds?.maxSentinelDrop ?? 0.1\n  const staleAfterDays = opts.thresholds?.staleAfterDays ?? 30\n\n  const byJudge = new Map<string, Array<SentinelSnapshot & { atMs: number }>>()\n  for (const snapshot of history) {\n    validateSentinelSnapshot(snapshot)\n    const atMs = parseIso(snapshot.at, `snapshot.at (judge \"${snapshot.judgeId}\")`)\n    const arr = byJudge.get(snapshot.judgeId) ?? []\n    arr.push({ ...snapshot, atMs })\n    byJudge.set(snapshot.judgeId, arr)\n  }\n\n  const perJudge: SentinelTrend[] = []\n  const alarms: string[] = []\n  const insufficientHistory: string[] = []\n\n  for (const judgeId of [...byJudge.keys()].sort()) {\n    const snaps = byJudge.get(judgeId)!.sort((a, b) => a.atMs - b.atMs)\n    const newest = snaps[snaps.length - 1]!\n\n    const ageDays = (asOfMs - newest.atMs) / MS_PER_DAY\n    if (ageDays > staleAfterDays) {\n      alarms.push(\n        `judge \"${judgeId}\": stale — newest snapshot ${newest.at} is ${ageDays.toFixed(1)}d old vs asOf (limit ${staleAfterDays}d)`,\n      )\n    }\n\n    // Silent-upgrade trap: only the latest model change matters for current\n    // trust, and only golden-grounded metrics clear it — irr alone proves\n    // judges still agree with each other, not that they're still right.\n    let changeIdx = -1\n    for (let i = 1; i < snaps.length; i++) {\n      if (snaps[i]!.judgeModel !== snaps[i - 1]!.judgeModel) changeIdx = i\n    }\n    if (changeIdx >= 0) {\n      const recalibrated = snaps\n        .slice(changeIdx)\n        .some(\n          (s) =>\n            Number.isFinite(s.metrics.calibrationKappa) ||\n            Number.isFinite(s.metrics.sentinelPassRate),\n        )\n      if (!recalibrated) {\n        alarms.push(\n          `judge \"${judgeId}\": model changed \"${snaps[changeIdx - 1]!.judgeModel}\" → \"${snaps[changeIdx]!.judgeModel}\" at ${snaps[changeIdx]!.at} with no post-change calibration snapshot — silent-upgrade trap; rerun calibrateJudge or the sentinel set against the new model`,\n        )\n      }\n    }\n\n    for (const metric of SENTINEL_METRIC_NAMES) {\n      const values = snaps\n        .filter((s) => typeof s.metrics[metric] === 'number')\n        .map((s) => s.metrics[metric]!)\n      if (values.length === 0) continue\n\n      const convergence = analyzeSeries(values, opts.convergence)\n      if (convergence.state === 'insufficient-data')\n        insufficientHistory.push(`${judgeId}:${metric}`)\n\n      const current = values[values.length - 1]!\n      const baseline = values[0]!\n      const drift = current - baseline\n      const reasons: string[] = []\n      if (convergence.state === 'drifting-down') {\n        reasons.push(\n          `convergence state drifting-down (tail run ${convergence.tailRun}, window mean ${convergence.windowMean.toFixed(3)})`,\n        )\n      }\n      if (metric === 'irr' && current < minIrr) {\n        reasons.push(`irr ${current.toFixed(3)} below floor ${minIrr}`)\n      }\n      if (metric === 'calibrationKappa' && baseline - current > maxKappaDrop) {\n        reasons.push(\n          `calibrationKappa dropped ${(baseline - current).toFixed(3)} from baseline ${baseline.toFixed(3)} (limit ${maxKappaDrop})`,\n        )\n      }\n      if (metric === 'sentinelPassRate' && baseline - current > maxSentinelDrop) {\n        reasons.push(\n          `sentinelPassRate dropped ${(baseline - current).toFixed(3)} from baseline ${baseline.toFixed(3)} (limit ${maxSentinelDrop})`,\n        )\n      }\n\n      const alarmed = reasons.length > 0\n      const trend: SentinelTrend = {\n        judgeId,\n        metric,\n        state: convergence.state,\n        current,\n        baseline,\n        drift,\n        alarmed,\n      }\n      if (alarmed) {\n        trend.reason = reasons.join('; ')\n        alarms.push(`judge \"${judgeId}\" ${metric}: ${trend.reason}`)\n      }\n      perJudge.push(trend)\n    }\n  }\n\n  return { perJudge, alarms, healthy: alarms.length === 0, insufficientHistory }\n}\n\n// ── Verdict stamp ────────────────────────────────────────────────────\n\nexport interface EvalHealthStamp {\n  healthy: boolean\n  alarms: string[]\n}\n\n/**\n * The object a campaign attaches to its verdicts. Compute it from the\n * sentinel report in a post-campaign hook (or a nightly job feeding the\n * next day's campaigns) and store it alongside the verdict payload.\n * `healthy: false` means the judges that produced those verdicts have an\n * unresolved drift / decay / silent-upgrade / staleness alarm — treat the\n * verdicts as carrying an integrity warning until recalibration clears it.\n */\nexport function evalHealthStamp(report: SentinelReport): EvalHealthStamp {\n  return { healthy: report.healthy, alarms: [...report.alarms] }\n}\n","/**\n * Judge calibration gate: a judge may gate only while its measured agreement\n * with its owner's verdicts holds.\n *\n * A judge (a model judge or a deterministic grader) registers a calibration\n * set: items its owner has decided, each verdict with its provenance. A\n * calibration run replays the judge on those items, once or several times, and\n * `measureJudgeAgreement` reports how often it reached the owner's verdict\n * (accuracy, and Cohen's κ for the pass/fail pair), how much its own verdict\n * moves between runs and between samples, and where it disagreed.\n *\n * `judgeGateDecision` turns that report into the one decision a consumer acts\n * on. A judge either decides (`decides: 'verdict'`, the default: it passes and\n * blocks, so it must reach the owner's verdict) or only vetoes\n * (`decides: 'veto'`: a necessary-condition check such as a copy or policy\n * check, which blocks but never passes work on its own; owners also reject\n * for reasons it does not cover, so its error is blocking what they approved).\n * It refuses when the judge has no measured agreement, too few decided\n * items of either verdict, a report measured on a different model or rubric\n * than the one the judge now runs, a report older than the policy allows,\n * agreement below the policy floors, or an alarmed drift history. A refused\n * judge's verdict is advisory: the consumer reports it but does not let it\n * pass or block anything.\n *\n * Drift is the judge sentinel (`./sentinel`): `snapshotFromJudgeAgreement`\n * records accuracy as `sentinelPassRate` and κ as `calibrationKappa`, so each\n * calibration run appends one snapshot to a `SentinelStore` and the gate reads\n * the alarms `judgeSentinelReport` raises over that history.\n *\n * Every timestamp is caller-supplied ISO-8601, so decisions are reproducible.\n */\n\nimport { JudgeError, ValidationError } from '../errors'\nimport { type ComputedInterval, computeInterval } from '../experiment/ast/interval'\nimport { meanOrNull } from '../statistics/mean'\nimport {\n  judgeSentinelReport,\n  type SentinelSnapshot,\n  type SentinelThresholds,\n  validateSentinelSnapshot,\n} from './sentinel'\n\nexport type OwnerVerdict = 'pass' | 'fail'\n\n/** One item the owner decided, with where that decision is recorded. */\nexport interface CalibrationExample {\n  /** Stable id of the decided item; a judge run names it in `exampleId`. */\n  id: string\n  verdict: OwnerVerdict\n  /** The person whose verdict this is. Never a model. */\n  labeledBy: string\n  /** ISO-8601 time the verdict was given. */\n  labeledAt: string\n  /** Where the verdict is recorded, e.g. `gtm:asset_decision:<id>`. */\n  source: string\n  /** What the owner judged (an image digest, a run id), so a replay judges the same thing. */\n  evidenceRef?: string\n  note?: string\n}\n\nexport interface JudgeCalibrationSet {\n  judgeId: string\n  /** Whose verdicts the judge stands in for. */\n  owner: string\n  examples: readonly CalibrationExample[]\n}\n\nfunction parseIso(value: unknown, label: string): number {\n  const ms = typeof value === 'string' ? Date.parse(value) : Number.NaN\n  if (!Number.isFinite(ms)) {\n    throw new ValidationError(\n      `judge-gate: ${label} is not a parseable ISO timestamp: ${JSON.stringify(value)}`,\n    )\n  }\n  return ms\n}\n\nfunction requireText(value: unknown, label: string): string {\n  if (typeof value !== 'string' || value.trim().length === 0) {\n    throw new ValidationError(`judge-gate: ${label} must be a non-empty string`)\n  }\n  return value\n}\n\nfunction requireVerdict(value: unknown, label: string): OwnerVerdict {\n  if (value !== 'pass' && value !== 'fail') {\n    throw new ValidationError(\n      `judge-gate: ${label} must be 'pass' or 'fail', got ${JSON.stringify(value)}`,\n    )\n  }\n  return value\n}\n\nfunction checkExample(example: CalibrationExample, label: string): CalibrationExample {\n  if (example === null || typeof example !== 'object') {\n    throw new ValidationError(`judge-gate: ${label} must be an object`)\n  }\n  requireText(example.id, `${label}.id`)\n  requireVerdict(example.verdict, `${label}.verdict`)\n  requireText(example.labeledBy, `${label}.labeledBy`)\n  parseIso(example.labeledAt, `${label}.labeledAt`)\n  requireText(example.source, `${label}.source`)\n  if (example.evidenceRef !== undefined) requireText(example.evidenceRef, `${label}.evidenceRef`)\n  const copy: CalibrationExample = {\n    id: example.id,\n    verdict: example.verdict,\n    labeledBy: example.labeledBy,\n    labeledAt: example.labeledAt,\n    source: example.source,\n  }\n  if (example.evidenceRef !== undefined) copy.evidenceRef = example.evidenceRef\n  if (example.note !== undefined) copy.note = example.note\n  return copy\n}\n\n/**\n * Validate a calibration set and return a normalized copy ordered by example\n * id. Every verdict needs its person, time and source; ids are unique.\n */\nexport function registerCalibrationSet(set: JudgeCalibrationSet): JudgeCalibrationSet {\n  if (set === null || typeof set !== 'object') {\n    throw new ValidationError('judge-gate: calibration set must be an object')\n  }\n  const judgeId = requireText(set.judgeId, 'calibration set judgeId')\n  const owner = requireText(set.owner, `calibration set \"${judgeId}\" owner`)\n  if (!Array.isArray(set.examples)) {\n    throw new ValidationError(`judge-gate: calibration set \"${judgeId}\" examples must be an array`)\n  }\n  const seen = new Set<string>()\n  const examples = set.examples.map((example, index) => {\n    const checked = checkExample(example, `calibration set \"${judgeId}\" example ${index}`)\n    if (seen.has(checked.id)) {\n      throw new ValidationError(\n        `judge-gate: calibration set \"${judgeId}\" has duplicate example id \"${checked.id}\"`,\n      )\n    }\n    seen.add(checked.id)\n    return checked\n  })\n  examples.sort((a, b) => (a.id < b.id ? -1 : a.id > b.id ? 1 : 0))\n  return { judgeId, owner, examples }\n}\n\nexport interface CalibrationMerge {\n  set: JudgeCalibrationSet\n  /** Ids that joined the set. */\n  added: string[]\n  /** Ids whose verdict a later decision replaced. */\n  superseded: string[]\n  /** Ids whose incoming verdict was already recorded, or older than the recorded one. */\n  unchanged: string[]\n}\n\n/**\n * Join new owner verdicts to a set. A verdict already recorded from the same\n * source is unchanged, so ingestion can rerun. A later verdict on an item\n * replaces an earlier one: the owner changed their mind, and the set keeps\n * what they decided last.\n */\nexport function addCalibrationVerdicts(\n  set: JudgeCalibrationSet,\n  verdicts: readonly CalibrationExample[],\n): CalibrationMerge {\n  const base = registerCalibrationSet(set)\n  const byId = new Map(base.examples.map((example) => [example.id, example]))\n  const added: string[] = []\n  const superseded: string[] = []\n  const unchanged: string[] = []\n  for (const [index, verdict] of verdicts.entries()) {\n    const incoming = checkExample(verdict, `incoming verdict ${index} for \"${base.judgeId}\"`)\n    const current = byId.get(incoming.id)\n    if (!current) {\n      byId.set(incoming.id, incoming)\n      added.push(incoming.id)\n      continue\n    }\n    const sameDecision = current.source === incoming.source && current.verdict === incoming.verdict\n    if (\n      sameDecision ||\n      parseIso(incoming.labeledAt, 'labeledAt') <= parseIso(current.labeledAt, 'labeledAt')\n    ) {\n      unchanged.push(incoming.id)\n      continue\n    }\n    byId.set(incoming.id, incoming)\n    superseded.push(incoming.id)\n  }\n  return {\n    set: registerCalibrationSet({ ...base, examples: [...byId.values()] }),\n    added,\n    superseded,\n    unchanged,\n  }\n}\n\n/** One gate decision the judge made on a calibration example. */\nexport interface JudgeRun {\n  exampleId: string\n  /** The judge's decision after its own sample aggregation (median, majority). */\n  verdict: OwnerVerdict\n  /** The per-sample verdicts behind that decision, when the judge samples. */\n  samples?: readonly OwnerVerdict[]\n}\n\nexport interface JudgeRunMeta {\n  judgeId: string\n  /** Exact model identity, or `deterministic` for a grader without one. */\n  judgeModel: string\n  rubricVersion: string\n  measuredAt: string\n}\n\nexport interface JudgeConfusion {\n  /** Judge pass, owner pass. */\n  truePass: number\n  /** Judge fail, owner fail. */\n  trueFail: number\n  /** Judge pass, owner fail: the judge let through what the owner rejected. */\n  falsePass: number\n  /** Judge fail, owner pass: the judge blocked what the owner accepted. */\n  falseFail: number\n}\n\nexport interface JudgeExampleAgreement {\n  id: string\n  verdict: OwnerVerdict\n  runs: number\n  /** Share of runs that passed. */\n  passRate: number\n  /** Share of runs that reached the owner's verdict. */\n  agreement: number\n}\n\nexport interface JudgeAgreement extends JudgeRunMeta {\n  owner: string\n  /** Examples in the calibration set. */\n  examples: number\n  /** Examples the judge ran on at least once. */\n  judged: number\n  /** Judged examples per owner verdict. */\n  judgedByVerdict: Record<OwnerVerdict, number>\n  runs: number\n  /** Runs that reached the owner's verdict, over all runs; null with no runs. */\n  accuracy: number | null\n  /**\n   * Exact (Clopper-Pearson) 95% interval for the share of judged examples on\n   * which every run reached the owner's verdict. Examples, not runs, are the\n   * independent units.\n   */\n  exampleAccuracy: { agreed: number; judged: number; interval: ComputedInterval } | null\n  /**\n   * Cohen's κ between the judge and the owner over runs. Null when undefined:\n   * no runs, or both sides used a single verdict.\n   */\n  kappa: number | null\n  /** Runs that failed what the owner passed, over runs on owner passes; null with none. A veto judge is held to this. */\n  falseFailRate: number | null\n  /** Runs that failed what the owner failed, over runs on owner fails; null with none. */\n  catchRate: number | null\n  confusion: JudgeConfusion\n  variance: {\n    /** Mean over judged examples of p(1 − p), p the example's run pass rate. 0 = no run changed its mind. */\n    betweenRuns: number | null\n    /** Mean over runs that reported samples of p(1 − p) across those samples; null when none did. */\n    withinRun: number | null\n    /** Examples whose runs disagree with each other. */\n    unstable: string[]\n  }\n  /** Examples with at least one run against the owner, least agreement first. */\n  disagreements: JudgeExampleAgreement[]\n  /** Examples without any run. */\n  unjudged: string[]\n}\n\nfunction bernoulliVariance(passes: number, n: number): number {\n  const p = passes / n\n  return p * (1 - p)\n}\n\n/** Cohen's κ for two raters over a binary pass/fail table. */\nfunction binaryKappa(confusion: JudgeConfusion): number | null {\n  const n = confusion.truePass + confusion.trueFail + confusion.falsePass + confusion.falseFail\n  if (n === 0) return null\n  const observed = (confusion.truePass + confusion.trueFail) / n\n  const judgePass = (confusion.truePass + confusion.falsePass) / n\n  const ownerPass = (confusion.truePass + confusion.falseFail) / n\n  const expected = judgePass * ownerPass + (1 - judgePass) * (1 - ownerPass)\n  if (expected === 1) return null\n  return (observed - expected) / (1 - expected)\n}\n\n/**\n * Agreement between a judge's runs and the owner's verdicts on one\n * calibration set. A run that names an example outside the set is an error:\n * a silently dropped run would overstate agreement.\n */\nexport function measureJudgeAgreement(\n  set: JudgeCalibrationSet,\n  runs: readonly JudgeRun[],\n  meta: JudgeRunMeta,\n): JudgeAgreement {\n  const registered = registerCalibrationSet(set)\n  if (meta.judgeId !== registered.judgeId) {\n    throw new ValidationError(\n      `judge-gate: runs are for judge \"${meta.judgeId}\" but the set belongs to \"${registered.judgeId}\"`,\n    )\n  }\n  requireText(meta.judgeModel, 'judgeModel')\n  requireText(meta.rubricVersion, 'rubricVersion')\n  parseIso(meta.measuredAt, 'measuredAt')\n  const byId = new Map(registered.examples.map((example) => [example.id, example]))\n  const runsById = new Map<string, JudgeRun[]>()\n  const confusion: JudgeConfusion = { truePass: 0, trueFail: 0, falsePass: 0, falseFail: 0 }\n  const withinRun: number[] = []\n  for (const [index, run] of runs.entries()) {\n    const example = byId.get(run?.exampleId)\n    if (!example) {\n      throw new ValidationError(\n        `judge-gate: run ${index} names example ${JSON.stringify(run?.exampleId)}, which is not in \"${registered.judgeId}\"'s calibration set`,\n      )\n    }\n    const verdict = requireVerdict(run.verdict, `run ${index} verdict`)\n    if (run.samples !== undefined) {\n      if (!Array.isArray(run.samples) || run.samples.length === 0) {\n        throw new ValidationError(`judge-gate: run ${index} samples must be a non-empty array`)\n      }\n      const samples = run.samples.map((sample, s) =>\n        requireVerdict(sample, `run ${index} sample ${s}`),\n      )\n      withinRun.push(\n        bernoulliVariance(samples.filter((sample) => sample === 'pass').length, samples.length),\n      )\n    }\n    const list = runsById.get(example.id) ?? []\n    list.push({ ...run, verdict })\n    runsById.set(example.id, list)\n    if (verdict === 'pass') {\n      if (example.verdict === 'pass') confusion.truePass++\n      else confusion.falsePass++\n    } else if (example.verdict === 'fail') confusion.trueFail++\n    else confusion.falseFail++\n  }\n\n  const perExample: JudgeExampleAgreement[] = []\n  const unjudged: string[] = []\n  const judgedByVerdict: Record<OwnerVerdict, number> = { pass: 0, fail: 0 }\n  for (const example of registered.examples) {\n    const list = runsById.get(example.id)\n    if (!list) {\n      unjudged.push(example.id)\n      continue\n    }\n    judgedByVerdict[example.verdict]++\n    const passes = list.filter((run) => run.verdict === 'pass').length\n    perExample.push({\n      id: example.id,\n      verdict: example.verdict,\n      runs: list.length,\n      passRate: passes / list.length,\n      agreement: list.filter((run) => run.verdict === example.verdict).length / list.length,\n    })\n  }\n\n  const total = runs.length\n  const agreedRuns = confusion.truePass + confusion.trueFail\n  const agreedExamples = perExample.filter((example) => example.agreement === 1).length\n  return {\n    ...meta,\n    owner: registered.owner,\n    examples: registered.examples.length,\n    judged: perExample.length,\n    judgedByVerdict,\n    runs: total,\n    accuracy: total === 0 ? null : agreedRuns / total,\n    exampleAccuracy:\n      perExample.length === 0\n        ? null\n        : {\n            agreed: agreedExamples,\n            judged: perExample.length,\n            interval: computeInterval(\n              { kind: 'clopper-pearson', level: 0.95 },\n              { kind: 'binomial', successes: agreedExamples, trials: perExample.length },\n            ),\n          },\n    kappa: binaryKappa(confusion),\n    falseFailRate:\n      confusion.truePass + confusion.falseFail === 0\n        ? null\n        : confusion.falseFail / (confusion.truePass + confusion.falseFail),\n    catchRate:\n      confusion.trueFail + confusion.falsePass === 0\n        ? null\n        : confusion.trueFail / (confusion.trueFail + confusion.falsePass),\n    confusion,\n    variance: {\n      betweenRuns: meanOrNull(\n        perExample.map((example) => example.passRate * (1 - example.passRate)),\n      ),\n      withinRun: meanOrNull(withinRun),\n      unstable: perExample\n        .filter((example) => example.passRate > 0 && example.passRate < 1)\n        .map((example) => example.id),\n    },\n    disagreements: perExample\n      .filter((example) => example.agreement < 1)\n      .sort((a, b) => a.agreement - b.agreement || (a.id < b.id ? -1 : 1)),\n    unjudged,\n  }\n}\n\nexport interface JudgeGatePolicy {\n  /**\n   * `verdict`: the judge passes and blocks, so accuracy and κ must hold.\n   * `veto`: it only blocks, so its false-fail rate on owner passes must hold.\n   */\n  decides: 'verdict' | 'veto'\n  /** Judged examples required before the judge may gate; for a veto judge, owner passes. */\n  minExamples: number\n  /** Judged examples required of each owner verdict, so κ is defined. */\n  minPerVerdict: number\n  /** Floor on run accuracy. */\n  minAccuracy: number\n  /** Floor on Cohen's κ. */\n  minKappa: number\n  /** Ceiling on a veto judge's false-fail rate. */\n  maxFalseFailRate: number\n  /** A report older than this (days, vs `asOf`) no longer calibrates the judge. */\n  maxAgeDays: number\n  /** Drift thresholds forwarded to `judgeSentinelReport` over the history. */\n  drift?: SentinelThresholds\n}\n\nexport const DEFAULT_JUDGE_GATE_POLICY: Readonly<JudgeGatePolicy> = Object.freeze({\n  decides: 'verdict',\n  minExamples: 10,\n  minPerVerdict: 1,\n  minAccuracy: 0.9,\n  minKappa: 0.6,\n  maxFalseFailRate: 0.1,\n  maxAgeDays: 30,\n})\n\nexport type JudgeGateStatus = 'calibrated' | 'uncalibrated' | 'below-threshold' | 'drifted'\n\nexport interface JudgeGateDecision {\n  judgeId: string\n  judgeModel: string\n  rubricVersion: string\n  /** True only for `calibrated`. */\n  mayGate: boolean\n  status: JudgeGateStatus\n  /** Why the judge may not gate; empty when it may. */\n  reasons: string[]\n  agreement: JudgeAgreement | null\n  policy: JudgeGatePolicy\n}\n\nexport interface JudgeGateInput {\n  judgeId: string\n  /** The model the judge runs now. */\n  judgeModel: string\n  /** The rubric the judge runs now. */\n  rubricVersion: string\n  /** The latest calibration report; null when the judge was never measured. */\n  agreement: JudgeAgreement | null\n  asOf: string\n  /** Sentinel snapshots for this judge, oldest first or in any order. */\n  history?: readonly SentinelSnapshot[]\n  policy?: Partial<JudgeGatePolicy>\n}\n\nconst DAY_MS = 86_400_000\n\nfunction percent(value: number): string {\n  return `${(value * 100).toFixed(1)}%`\n}\n\n/** Whether a judge may gate now, and every reason it may not. */\nexport function judgeGateDecision(input: JudgeGateInput): JudgeGateDecision {\n  const judgeId = requireText(input.judgeId, 'judgeId')\n  const judgeModel = requireText(input.judgeModel, 'judgeModel')\n  const rubricVersion = requireText(input.rubricVersion, 'rubricVersion')\n  const asOf = parseIso(input.asOf, 'asOf')\n  const policy: JudgeGatePolicy = {\n    ...DEFAULT_JUDGE_GATE_POLICY,\n    ...Object.fromEntries(\n      Object.entries(input.policy ?? {}).filter(([, value]) => value !== undefined),\n    ),\n  }\n  if (policy.decides !== 'verdict' && policy.decides !== 'veto') {\n    throw new ValidationError(\n      `judge-gate: policy.decides must be 'verdict' or 'veto', got ${JSON.stringify(policy.decides)}`,\n    )\n  }\n  const agreement = input.agreement\n  const decide = (status: JudgeGateStatus, reasons: string[]): JudgeGateDecision => ({\n    judgeId,\n    judgeModel,\n    rubricVersion,\n    mayGate: status === 'calibrated',\n    status,\n    reasons,\n    agreement,\n    policy,\n  })\n\n  if (!agreement) return decide('uncalibrated', ['no measured agreement with owner verdicts'])\n  if (agreement.judgeId !== judgeId) {\n    throw new ValidationError(\n      `judge-gate: agreement belongs to \"${agreement.judgeId}\", not \"${judgeId}\"`,\n    )\n  }\n\n  const uncalibrated: string[] = []\n  if (agreement.judgeModel !== judgeModel) {\n    uncalibrated.push(\n      `agreement was measured on model ${agreement.judgeModel}; the judge now runs ${judgeModel}`,\n    )\n  }\n  if (agreement.rubricVersion !== rubricVersion) {\n    uncalibrated.push(\n      `agreement was measured on rubric ${agreement.rubricVersion}; the judge now runs ${rubricVersion}`,\n    )\n  }\n  const ageDays = (asOf - parseIso(agreement.measuredAt, 'agreement.measuredAt')) / DAY_MS\n  if (ageDays > policy.maxAgeDays) {\n    uncalibrated.push(`agreement is ${ageDays.toFixed(1)} days old (limit ${policy.maxAgeDays})`)\n  }\n  if (policy.decides === 'veto') {\n    // Only owner passes can show a veto judge blocking what it should not.\n    if (agreement.judgedByVerdict.pass < policy.minExamples) {\n      uncalibrated.push(\n        `${agreement.judgedByVerdict.pass} judged examples the owner marked pass; a veto judge needs at least ${policy.minExamples}`,\n      )\n    }\n  } else {\n    if (agreement.judged < policy.minExamples) {\n      uncalibrated.push(\n        `${agreement.judged} judged ${agreement.judged === 1 ? 'example' : 'examples'}; at least ${policy.minExamples} required`,\n      )\n    }\n    for (const verdict of ['pass', 'fail'] as const) {\n      if (agreement.judgedByVerdict[verdict] < policy.minPerVerdict) {\n        uncalibrated.push(\n          `${agreement.judgedByVerdict[verdict]} judged examples the owner marked ${verdict}; at least ${policy.minPerVerdict} required`,\n        )\n      }\n    }\n  }\n  if (uncalibrated.length > 0) return decide('uncalibrated', uncalibrated)\n\n  const below: string[] = []\n  if (policy.decides === 'veto') {\n    if (agreement.falseFailRate === null || agreement.falseFailRate > policy.maxFalseFailRate) {\n      below.push(\n        `it fails ${agreement.falseFailRate === null ? 'an unmeasured share' : percent(agreement.falseFailRate)} of what the owner passed (limit ${percent(policy.maxFalseFailRate)})`,\n      )\n    }\n  } else if (agreement.accuracy === null || agreement.accuracy < policy.minAccuracy) {\n    below.push(\n      `accuracy ${agreement.accuracy === null ? 'unmeasured' : percent(agreement.accuracy)} is below ${percent(policy.minAccuracy)}`,\n    )\n  }\n  if (\n    policy.decides === 'verdict' &&\n    (agreement.kappa === null || agreement.kappa < policy.minKappa)\n  ) {\n    below.push(\n      `kappa ${agreement.kappa === null ? 'undefined' : agreement.kappa.toFixed(2)} is below ${policy.minKappa}`,\n    )\n  }\n  if (below.length > 0) return decide('below-threshold', below)\n\n  const history = (input.history ?? []).filter((snapshot) => snapshot.judgeId === judgeId)\n  if (history.length > 0) {\n    const report = judgeSentinelReport([...history], {\n      asOf: input.asOf,\n      ...(policy.drift ? { thresholds: policy.drift } : {}),\n    })\n    if (!report.healthy) return decide('drifted', report.alarms)\n  }\n  return decide('calibrated', [])\n}\n\n/** Thrown by `assertJudgeMayGate`; carries the refused decision. */\nexport class JudgeGateRefusedError extends JudgeError {\n  readonly decision: JudgeGateDecision\n\n  constructor(decision: JudgeGateDecision) {\n    super(\n      `judge \"${decision.judgeId}\" may not gate (${decision.status}): ${decision.reasons.join('; ')}`,\n    )\n    this.decision = decision\n  }\n}\n\n/** Throw unless the decision lets the judge gate. */\nexport function assertJudgeMayGate(decision: JudgeGateDecision): void {\n  if (!decision.mayGate) throw new JudgeGateRefusedError(decision)\n}\n\n/**\n * The sentinel snapshot for one calibration run. A deciding judge records\n * accuracy as `sentinelPassRate` and κ as `calibrationKappa` when it is\n * defined; a veto judge records the share of owner passes it let through as\n * `sentinelPassRate`. Append it to the judge's `SentinelStore`; the gate reads\n * drift from that history.\n */\nexport function snapshotFromJudgeAgreement(\n  agreement: JudgeAgreement,\n  options: { decides?: JudgeGatePolicy['decides'] } = {},\n): SentinelSnapshot {\n  const veto = options.decides === 'veto'\n  const rate = veto\n    ? agreement.falseFailRate === null\n      ? null\n      : 1 - agreement.falseFailRate\n    : agreement.accuracy\n  if (rate === null) {\n    throw new ValidationError(\n      `snapshotFromJudgeAgreement: judge \"${agreement.judgeId}\" has no ${veto ? 'runs on owner passes' : 'runs'} to snapshot`,\n    )\n  }\n  const snapshot: SentinelSnapshot = {\n    at: agreement.measuredAt,\n    judgeId: agreement.judgeId,\n    judgeModel: agreement.judgeModel,\n    metrics: {\n      sentinelPassRate: rate,\n      ...(veto || agreement.kappa === null ? {} : { calibrationKappa: agreement.kappa }),\n    },\n  }\n  validateSentinelSnapshot(snapshot)\n  return 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package/dist/meta-eval/index.js

@@ -6,7 +6,7 @@ import { s as runMetricExtractor } from "../query-CGXzO9d4.js";
 import { n as callLlmJson } from "../llm-client-BdSiZ4qz.js";
 import { a as validateObservationOptions, i as reduceOutcomeMetric, n as correlationSummary, r as hasVariation, t as assertUniqueObservationIds } from "../outcome-observations-ahbNtxuP.js";
 import { a as rankedProbabilityScore, i as multiclassBrierScore, n as calibrationCurve, r as calibrationFromPairs, t as brierScore } from "../calibration-DLzckXnn.js";
-import { a as judgeGateDecision, c as snapshotFromJudgeAgreement, d as judgeSentinelReport, f as snapshotFromAgreement, g as withJudgeRetry, h as validateSentinelSnapshot, i as assertJudgeMayGate, l as evalHealthStamp, m as snapshotFromSentinelSet, n as JudgeGateRefusedError, o as measureJudgeAgreement, p as snapshotFromCalibration, r as addCalibrationVerdicts, s as registerCalibrationSet, t as DEFAULT_JUDGE_GATE_POLICY, u as fileSentinelStore } from "../judge-gate-C9sLLJ-v.js";
+import { a as judgeGateDecision, c as snapshotFromJudgeAgreement, d as judgeSentinelReport, f as snapshotFromAgreement, g as withJudgeRetry, h as validateSentinelSnapshot, i as assertJudgeMayGate, l as evalHealthStamp, m as snapshotFromSentinelSet, n as JudgeGateRefusedError, o as measureJudgeAgreement, p as snapshotFromCalibration, r as addCalibrationVerdicts, s as registerCalibrationSet, t as DEFAULT_JUDGE_GATE_POLICY, u as fileSentinelStore } from "../judge-gate-DMlX38B7.js";
 import { t as computeInterval } from "../interval-Bd2f4CRT.js";
 import { t as clusterBootstrapMean } from "../cluster-bootstrap-hNXESoc1.js";
 import { t as rubricPredictiveValidity } from "../rubric-predictive-validity-BdxXDN6h.js";

package/dist/openapi.json

@@ -2,7 +2,7 @@
   "openapi": "3.1.0",
   "info": {
     "title": "@tangle-network/agent-eval — wire protocol",
-    "version": "1.0.5",
+    "version": "1.0.7",
     "description": "HTTP and stdio RPC interface to agent-eval. The TypeScript runtime is the source of truth; this spec is the contract that cross-language clients (Python, Rust, Go) generate from.\n\nWire-protocol version: 1.1.0. Bumps on breaking changes to request/response schemas.",
     "contact": {
       "name": "Tangle Network",

package/dist/paired-arms-C0Vd9bGG.js.map

@@ -1 +1 @@
-{"version":3,"file":"paired-arms-C0Vd9bGG.js","names":[],"sources":["../src/arm-populations.ts","../src/math/normal.ts","../src/statistics/rank-tests.ts","../src/paired-arms.ts"],"sourcesContent":["import type { FindingTreatment } from './analyst/finding-composition'\nimport { findingTreatmentSchema } from './analyst/finding-composition'\nimport type { PairedArmRow } from './paired-arms'\n\n/** Expected seed identities must be supplied independently of completed observations. */\nexport interface ArmAssignment {\n  pairKey: string\n  repKey?: string\n  arm: string\n  treatment?: FindingTreatment[]\n}\nexport interface ArmPopulationSummary {\n  n: number\n  passed: number\n  failed: number\n  missingOutcomes: number\n  /** Unknown unless every unit's outcome was observed; missing is never a failed check. */\n  passRate: number | null\n  metrics: Record<string, { n: number; missing: number; sum: number | null; mean: number | null }>\n}\nexport interface ArmPopulationReading {\n  arm: string\n  assignments: ArmAssignment[]\n  missingObservations: number\n  formation: { formed: number; notFormed: number; unknown: number }\n  asAssigned: ArmPopulationSummary\n  asFormed: ArmPopulationSummary\n}\n\nconst keyOf = (row: ArmAssignment): string =>\n  JSON.stringify([row.arm, row.pairKey, row.repKey ?? null])\nfunction checkIdentity(row: ArmAssignment): void {\n  for (const value of [row.arm, row.pairKey, ...(row.repKey === undefined ? [] : [row.repKey])]) {\n    if (typeof value !== 'string' || !value.trim())\n      throw new TypeError('Arm assignments require nonempty identities')\n  }\n  if (row.treatment !== undefined) {\n    if (!Array.isArray(row.treatment)) throw new TypeError('Arm treatment must be an array')\n    for (const value of row.treatment) findingTreatmentSchema.parse(value)\n    if (new Set(row.treatment.map((t) => t.id)).size !== row.treatment.length)\n      throw new TypeError('Duplicate arm treatment id')\n  }\n}\nfunction checkObservation(row: PairedArmRow): void {\n  checkIdentity(row)\n  if (row.pass != null && typeof row.pass !== 'boolean')\n    throw new TypeError('Invalid arm pass value')\n  if (row.formation !== undefined) {\n    if (row.formation === null || typeof row.formation !== 'object')\n      throw new TypeError('Invalid formation verdict')\n    if (row.formation.formed !== null && typeof row.formation.formed !== 'boolean')\n      throw new TypeError('Invalid formation state')\n    if (row.formation.reason !== undefined && typeof row.formation.reason !== 'string')\n      throw new TypeError('Invalid formation reason')\n  }\n  for (const value of Object.values(row.metrics ?? {})) {\n    if (value !== null && !Number.isFinite(value)) throw new TypeError('Non-finite arm metric')\n  }\n}\n\n/** One roster join serves comparison and both denominators; no outcomes are inferred from formation. */\nexport function prepareArmPopulations(\n  observations: readonly PairedArmRow[],\n  assignments: readonly ArmAssignment[],\n  options: { baselineArm: string; treatmentArm: string; metricNames?: string[] },\n): { rows: PairedArmRow[]; readings: ArmPopulationReading[] } {\n  const arms = [options.baselineArm, options.treatmentArm]\n  const roster = new Map<string, ArmAssignment>()\n  for (const entry of assignments) {\n    if (!arms.includes(entry.arm)) continue\n    checkIdentity(entry)\n    const key = keyOf(entry)\n    if (roster.has(key)) throw new TypeError('Duplicate arm assignment')\n    roster.set(key, structuredClone(entry))\n  }\n  for (const arm of arms)\n    if (![...roster.values()].some((r) => r.arm === arm))\n      throw new TypeError(`No assignment roster for arm '${arm}'`)\n  const actual = new Map<string, PairedArmRow>()\n  for (const row of observations) {\n    if (!arms.includes(row.arm)) continue\n    checkObservation(row)\n    const key = keyOf(row)\n    if (!roster.has(key)) throw new TypeError('Observed seed is outside the assignment roster')\n    if (actual.has(key)) throw new TypeError('Duplicate arm observation')\n    actual.set(key, row)\n  }\n  const ordered = [...roster.entries()].sort(([a], [b]) => (a < b ? -1 : a > b ? 1 : 0))\n  // Placeholder rows carry identities only. They never manufacture pass, metrics or formation.\n  const rows = ordered.map(([key, entry]) => actual.get(key) ?? entry)\n  const metricNames =\n    options.metricNames ??\n    [...new Set([...actual.values()].flatMap((r) => Object.keys(r.metrics ?? {})))].sort()\n  const readings = arms.map((arm) => {\n    const declared = ordered.filter(([, r]) => r.arm === arm)\n    const asAssigned = declared.map(([key]) => actual.get(key))\n    const asFormed = asAssigned.filter(\n      (row): row is PairedArmRow => row?.formation?.formed === true,\n    )\n    return {\n      arm,\n      assignments: declared.map(([, r]) => r),\n      missingObservations: asAssigned.filter((r) => r === undefined).length,\n      formation: {\n        formed: asFormed.length,\n        notFormed: asAssigned.filter((r) => r?.formation?.formed === false).length,\n        unknown: asAssigned.filter((r) => r?.formation?.formed == null).length,\n      },\n      asAssigned: summarize(asAssigned, metricNames),\n      asFormed: summarize(asFormed, metricNames),\n    }\n  })\n  return { rows, readings }\n}\n\nfunction summarize(\n  rows: readonly (PairedArmRow | undefined)[],\n  names: readonly string[],\n): ArmPopulationSummary {\n  const passed = rows.filter((r) => r?.pass === true).length\n  const failed = rows.filter((r) => r?.pass === false).length\n  const missingOutcomes = rows.length - passed - failed\n  const metrics = Object.fromEntries(\n    names.map((name) => {\n      const values = rows.map((r) => r?.metrics?.[name]).filter((x): x is number => x != null)\n      const sum = values.length ? values.reduce((s, v) => s + v, 0) : null\n      return [\n        name,\n        {\n          n: values.length,\n          missing: rows.length - values.length,\n          sum,\n          mean: sum === null ? null : sum / values.length,\n        },\n      ]\n    }),\n  )\n  return {\n    n: rows.length,\n    passed,\n    failed,\n    missingOutcomes,\n    passRate: rows.length && !missingOutcomes ? passed / rows.length : null,\n    metrics,\n  }\n}\n","/**\n * Standard normal cumulative distribution using Abramowitz and Stegun 7.1.26.\n *\n * The approximation is evaluated as erf(x / sqrt(2)). Computing the negative\n * tail from the complementary term avoids cancellation when x is far below 0.\n * The maximum absolute CDF error is approximately 7.5e-8.\n */\nexport function normalCdf(x: number): number {\n  if (x === 0) return 0.5\n\n  const a1 = 0.254829592\n  const a2 = -0.284496736\n  const a3 = 1.421413741\n  const a4 = -1.453152027\n  const a5 = 1.061405429\n  const p = 0.3275911\n\n  const scaled = Math.abs(x) / Math.SQRT2\n  const t = 1 / (1 + p * scaled)\n  const complement = ((((a5 * t + a4) * t + a3) * t + a2) * t + a1) * t * Math.exp(-scaled * scaled)\n\n  return x < 0 ? complement / 2 : 1 - complement / 2\n}\n","import { ValidationError } from '../errors'\nimport { normalCdf } from '../math/normal'\nimport { lnGamma } from '../math/special-functions'\nimport {\n  assertFiniteSample,\n  binomialSignTwoSided,\n  makeRng,\n  symmetricTwoSampleSeed,\n} from './internal'\n\n// ── Rank tests: exact by default ─────────────────────────────────────\n//\n// At 3–10 repetitions per arm the binding constraint on a rank test is\n// combinatorial, not numerical. Three versus three admits only 20 splits, so\n// the attainable two-sided p-grid starts at 0.1000 and α = 0.05 is out of\n// reach at that design; a normal approximation reports 0.0495, a p-value that\n// describes no attainable outcome. No better approximation fixes this — adding\n// the tie correction moves `[0,0,0]` versus `[1,1,1]` from 0.0495 to 0.0469,\n// further from its exact 0.1000, not closer.\n//\n// So both null distributions are enumerated exactly inside bounded state and\n// work budgets, by convolution over the observed midranks (identical to\n// enumerating every split / sign pattern, and cheaper), which conditions on the\n// realised tie pattern for free. Above those budgets the default is a seeded\n// Monte Carlo permutation. The asymptotic path is never chosen automatically,\n// and asking for it inside the exact-feasible range throws.\n//\n// Every result carries `method` and `pFloor` so a downstream gate can SEE the\n// discreteness rather than infer it: a gate handed data whose `pFloor` exceeds\n// its alpha is underpowered by construction, which is a true statement about\n// the experiment, not a false one about the effect.\n\n/** How a rank test's p-value was actually computed. */\nexport type RankTestMethod = 'exact' | 'permutation' | 'asymptotic'\n\n/**\n * What the caller asks for. `'auto'` selects `'exact'` inside the enumeration\n * threshold and `'permutation'` above it, and never selects `'asymptotic'`.\n */\nexport type RankTestMethodRequest = 'auto' | 'exact' | 'asymptotic'\n\nexport interface RankTestOptions {\n  /** Default `'auto'`. `'asymptotic'` inside the exact-feasible range throws. */\n  method?: RankTestMethodRequest\n  /** Resamples on the Monte Carlo permutation path. Default 100000. */\n  permutations?: number\n  /** Seed for the permutation path. Omitted ⇒ derived from the data itself, so\n   *  the result is reproducible either way. */\n  seed?: number\n}\n\n/** Maximum dynamic-programming cells used by an exact two-sample rank test. */\nconst MANN_WHITNEY_EXACT_MAX_STATES = 8_192\n/** Maximum inner-loop transitions used by an exact two-sample rank test. */\nconst MANN_WHITNEY_EXACT_MAX_WORK = 250_000\n/** Non-zero differences up to which the signed-rank null is enumerated exactly. */\nconst WILCOXON_EXACT_MAX_N = 20\n/** Resamples used when a rank test falls back to Monte Carlo permutation. */\nconst DEFAULT_PERMUTATIONS = 100_000\n\nexport interface MannWhitneyResult {\n  /** `min(U_a, U_b)` — the conventional reported statistic. */\n  u: number\n  /** U for sample `a`. Carries the direction of the effect, which `u` discards. */\n  uA: number\n  /** Two-sided p-value. */\n  p: number\n  /** How `p` was computed. */\n  method: RankTestMethod\n  /** Smallest two-sided p this design can produce. `p` can never be below it. */\n  pFloor: number\n}\n\n/**\n * Mann-Whitney U — two independent samples, no distributional assumption.\n *\n * Exact conditional (permutation) p by default when the dynamic program fits\n * {@link MANN_WHITNEY_EXACT_MAX_STATES} cells and\n * {@link MANN_WHITNEY_EXACT_MAX_WORK} transitions, seeded Monte Carlo\n * permutation above those limits. This keeps imbalanced designs such as 1+24\n * exact without admitting expensive balanced designs merely because they have\n * the same total size. Throws on non-finite input and on `method:\n * 'asymptotic'` where an exact answer is available. Empty input yields `p = 1,\n * pFloor = 1` — no design, no attainable evidence.\n */\nexport function mannWhitneyU(\n  a: number[],\n  b: number[],\n  opts: RankTestOptions = {},\n): MannWhitneyResult {\n  assertFiniteSample('mannWhitneyU', 'a', a)\n  assertFiniteSample('mannWhitneyU', 'b', b)\n\n  const n1 = a.length\n  const n2 = b.length\n  if (n1 === 0 || n2 === 0) return { u: 0, uA: 0, p: 1, method: 'exact', pFloor: 1 }\n\n  const total = n1 + n2\n  const combined = [\n    ...a.map((v) => ({ v, fromA: true })),\n    ...b.map((v) => ({ v, fromA: false })),\n  ].sort((x, y) => x.v - y.v)\n\n  const { midranks, tieTerm } = midranksWithTieTerm(combined.map((entry) => entry.v))\n  let rankSumA = 0\n  for (let k = 0; k < total; k++) {\n    if (combined[k]!.fromA) rankSumA += midranks[k]!\n  }\n\n  const uA = rankSumA - (n1 * (n1 + 1)) / 2\n  const u = Math.min(uA, n1 * n2 - uA)\n  // Midranks are integers or halves, so doubling makes the null convolution\n  // integral. U is centred on n₁n₂/2, hence a doubled centre of n₁n₂.\n  const doubled = midranks.map((rank) => Math.round(rank * 2))\n  const doubledDeviation = Math.abs(2 * uA - n1 * n2)\n  const selectedN = Math.min(n1, n2)\n  const otherN = total - selectedN\n  const exactCost = exactTwoSampleCost(doubled, selectedN)\n\n  const designFloor = exactTwoSampleFloor(doubled, selectedN)\n  const method = selectRankTestMethod(\n    'mannWhitneyU',\n    opts.method ?? 'auto',\n    `n1=${n1}, n2=${n2}`,\n    exactCost.states <= MANN_WHITNEY_EXACT_MAX_STATES &&\n      exactCost.work <= MANN_WHITNEY_EXACT_MAX_WORK,\n    designFloor,\n    `${MANN_WHITNEY_EXACT_MAX_STATES.toLocaleString('en-US')} states and ` +\n      `${MANN_WHITNEY_EXACT_MAX_WORK.toLocaleString('en-US')} transitions`,\n  )\n\n  if (method === 'exact') {\n    const { p, pFloor } = exactTwoSampleP(doubled, selectedN, otherN, doubledDeviation)\n    return { u, uA, p, method, pFloor }\n  }\n\n  if (method === 'asymptotic') {\n    return {\n      u,\n      uA,\n      p: asymptoticTwoSidedP(doubledDeviation / 2, twoSampleSigma(n1, n2, total, tieTerm)),\n      method,\n      pFloor: designFloor,\n    }\n  }\n\n  const permutations = resolvePermutations('mannWhitneyU', opts.permutations)\n  const rng = opts.seed === undefined ? makeRng(symmetricTwoSampleSeed(a, b)) : makeRng(opts.seed)\n  let atLeastAsExtreme = 0\n  const pool = [...doubled]\n  for (let iteration = 0; iteration < permutations; iteration++) {\n    let doubledRankSum = 0\n    for (let k = 0; k < selectedN; k++) {\n      const pick = k + Math.floor(rng() * (total - k))\n      const swapped = pool[pick]!\n      pool[pick] = pool[k]!\n      pool[k] = swapped\n      doubledRankSum += swapped\n    }\n    if (\n      Math.abs(doubledRankSum - selectedN * (selectedN + 1) - selectedN * otherN) >=\n      doubledDeviation\n    ) {\n      atLeastAsExtreme++\n    }\n  }\n  const pFloor = Math.max(1 / (permutations + 1), designFloor)\n  return {\n    u,\n    uA,\n    p: Math.max((1 + atLeastAsExtreme) / (permutations + 1), pFloor),\n    method,\n    pFloor,\n  }\n}\n\nexport interface WilcoxonSignedRankResult {\n  /** W⁺, the rank sum of the positive differences. (scipy reports\n   *  `min(W⁺, W⁻)`; compare statistics only after converting.) */\n  w: number\n  /** Two-sided p-value. */\n  p: number\n  /** How `p` was computed. */\n  method: RankTestMethod\n  /** Smallest two-sided p this design can produce. */\n  pFloor: number\n  /** Non-zero differences — zero differences are dropped and carry no rank. */\n  nNonZero: number\n}\n\n/**\n * Wilcoxon signed-rank — paired, no distributional assumption on the deltas.\n *\n * Exact conditional (sign-flip) p by default at `n ≤\n * {@link WILCOXON_EXACT_MAX_N}` non-zero differences, seeded Monte Carlo\n * permutation above it. Throws on non-finite input and on `method:\n * 'asymptotic'` where an exact answer is available.\n *\n * `n` is the count of NON-ZERO differences: exact ties are dropped before\n * ranking, so a run of tied pairs shrinks the design and raises `pFloor`.\n * All-tied input yields `p = 1, pFloor = 1` — no attainable evidence, which\n * `pFloor` states rather than leaving `p = 1` to be read as a measured null.\n */\nexport function wilcoxonSignedRank(\n  before: number[],\n  after: number[],\n  opts: RankTestOptions = {},\n): WilcoxonSignedRankResult {\n  if (before.length !== after.length) {\n    throw new ValidationError(\n      `wilcoxonSignedRank: unequal sample sizes (${before.length} vs ${after.length})`,\n    )\n  }\n  assertFiniteSample('wilcoxonSignedRank', 'before', before)\n  assertFiniteSample('wilcoxonSignedRank', 'after', after)\n\n  const diffs = before.map((b, i) => after[i]! - b).filter((d) => d !== 0)\n  const n = diffs.length\n  if (n === 0) return { w: 0, p: 1, method: 'exact', pFloor: 1, nNonZero: 0 }\n\n  // When every non-zero difference has the same magnitude, the signed-rank\n  // null reduces exactly to a binomial sign distribution. This is the common\n  // pass/fail shape ({-1, 0, +1}); recognizing it avoids a 100k-draw\n  // permutation for every repeated gate evaluation while preserving the exact\n  // p-value and attainable floor. Explicit method requests still retain their\n  // documented behavior.\n  const abs = Math.abs(diffs[0]!)\n  const allEqualAbs = diffs.every((d) => Math.abs(d) === abs)\n  if ((opts.method === undefined || opts.method === 'auto') && allEqualAbs) {\n    const positive = diffs.filter((d) => d > 0).length\n    const negative = n - positive\n    return {\n      w: (positive * (n + 1)) / 2,\n      p: binomialSignTwoSided(positive, negative),\n      method: 'exact',\n      pFloor: Math.min(1, 2 ** (1 - n)),\n      nNonZero: n,\n    }\n  }\n\n  const order = diffs.map((d, i) => ({ abs: Math.abs(d), i })).sort((x, y) => x.abs - y.abs)\n  const { midranks, tieTerm } = midranksWithTieTerm(order.map((entry) => entry.abs))\n  const ranks: number[] = new Array(n)\n  for (let k = 0; k < n; k++) ranks[order[k]!.i] = midranks[k]!\n\n  let wPlus = 0\n  for (let k = 0; k < n; k++) if (diffs[k]! > 0) wPlus += ranks[k]!\n\n  // Midranks are integers or halves; doubling makes the convolution integral.\n  // Σ midranks = n(n+1)/2 whatever the tie pattern, so E[W⁺] = n(n+1)/4 and\n  // the doubled centre is n(n+1)/2.\n  const doubled = midranks.map((rank) => Math.round(rank * 2))\n  const doubledDeviation = Math.abs(2 * wPlus - (n * (n + 1)) / 2)\n\n  const designFloor = Math.min(1, 2 ** (1 - n))\n  const method = selectRankTestMethod(\n    'wilcoxonSignedRank',\n    opts.method ?? 'auto',\n    `n=${n} non-zero differences`,\n    n <= WILCOXON_EXACT_MAX_N,\n    designFloor,\n    `${WILCOXON_EXACT_MAX_N} non-zero differences`,\n  )\n\n  if (method === 'exact') {\n    const { p, pFloor } = exactSignedRankP(doubled, doubledDeviation)\n    return { w: wPlus, p, method, pFloor, nNonZero: n }\n  }\n\n  if (method === 'asymptotic') {\n    const variance = (n * (n + 1) * (2 * n + 1)) / 24 - tieTerm / 48\n    return {\n      w: wPlus,\n      p: asymptoticTwoSidedP(doubledDeviation / 2, Math.sqrt(variance)),\n      method,\n      pFloor: designFloor,\n      nNonZero: n,\n    }\n  }\n\n  const permutations = resolvePermutations('wilcoxonSignedRank', opts.permutations)\n  const rng = makeRng(opts.seed, before, after)\n  const doubledCentre = (n * (n + 1)) / 2\n  let atLeastAsExtreme = 0\n  for (let iteration = 0; iteration < permutations; iteration++) {\n    let doubledWPlus = 0\n    for (let k = 0; k < n; k++) if (rng() < 0.5) doubledWPlus += doubled[k]!\n    if (Math.abs(doubledWPlus - doubledCentre) >= doubledDeviation) atLeastAsExtreme++\n  }\n  return {\n    w: wPlus,\n    p: (1 + atLeastAsExtreme) / (permutations + 1),\n    method,\n    pFloor: Math.max(1 / (permutations + 1), designFloor),\n    nNonZero: n,\n  }\n}\n\n/**\n * Average ranks over an ASCENDING-sorted array, plus `Σ(t³ − t)` over tie\n * groups of size `t` — the correction term both asymptotic rank-test variances\n * need.\n */\nfunction midranksWithTieTerm(sorted: readonly number[]): { midranks: number[]; tieTerm: number } {\n  const midranks = new Array<number>(sorted.length)\n  let tieTerm = 0\n  let i = 0\n  while (i < sorted.length) {\n    let j = i\n    while (j < sorted.length && sorted[j] === sorted[i]) j++\n    const average = (i + 1 + j) / 2\n    for (let k = i; k < j; k++) midranks[k] = average\n    const groupSize = j - i\n    if (groupSize > 1) tieTerm += groupSize ** 3 - groupSize\n    i = j\n  }\n  return { midranks, tieTerm }\n}\n\nfunction selectRankTestMethod(\n  fn: string,\n  request: RankTestMethodRequest,\n  design: string,\n  exactFeasible: boolean,\n  designFloor: number,\n  threshold: string,\n): RankTestMethod {\n  if (request === 'auto') return exactFeasible ? 'exact' : 'permutation'\n  if (request === 'exact') {\n    if (exactFeasible) return 'exact'\n    throw new ValidationError(\n      `${fn}: method 'exact' is out of range at ${design} — enumeration is bounded by ` +\n        `${threshold}. Use 'auto' for the seeded Monte Carlo permutation, which converges ` +\n        'to the same answer.',\n    )\n  }\n  if (exactFeasible) {\n    throw new ValidationError(\n      `${fn}: method 'asymptotic' is refused at ${design} — the exact p-grid at this design ` +\n        `starts at ${formatProbability(designFloor)}, so an asymptotic p below it describes no ` +\n        `attainable outcome. Use method 'exact' (the default) or add repetitions past ` +\n        `${threshold}.`,\n    )\n  }\n  return 'asymptotic'\n}\n\nfunction resolvePermutations(fn: string, permutations: number | undefined): number {\n  if (permutations === undefined) return DEFAULT_PERMUTATIONS\n  if (!Number.isInteger(permutations) || permutations < 1) {\n    throw new ValidationError(`${fn}: permutations must be a positive integer, got ${permutations}`)\n  }\n  return permutations\n}\n\n/** Two-sided normal-approximation tail with the continuity correction. */\nfunction asymptoticTwoSidedP(deviation: number, sigma: number): number {\n  if (!(sigma > 0)) return 1\n  return Math.min(1, 2 * (1 - normalCdf(Math.max(0, deviation - 0.5) / sigma)))\n}\n\n/** SD of U under the permutation null, corrected for the realised ties. The\n *  tie term reduces (N+1) and reaches it exactly when every value is tied, so\n *  the variance floors at 0 rather than going negative. */\nfunction twoSampleSigma(n1: number, n2: number, total: number, tieTerm: number): number {\n  if (total < 2) return 0\n  const variance = ((n1 * n2) / 12) * (total + 1 - tieTerm / (total * (total - 1)))\n  return Math.sqrt(Math.max(0, variance))\n}\n\nfunction logChoose(n: number, k: number): number {\n  return lnGamma(n + 1) - lnGamma(k + 1) - lnGamma(n - k + 1)\n}\n\nfunction formatProbability(value: number): string {\n  return value >= 1e-4 || value === 0 ? value.toFixed(4) : value.toExponential(3)\n}\n\n/**\n * Exact DP allocation and loop count for this observed rank vector.\n *\n * The smaller arm is sufficient because selecting its complement produces the\n * same two-sided U deviation while using fewer rows in the state table.\n */\nfunction exactTwoSampleCost(\n  doubledRanks: readonly number[],\n  selectedN: number,\n): { states: number; work: number } {\n  const maxSum = doubledRanks.reduce((sum, rank) => sum + rank, 0)\n  let work = 0\n  for (let placed = 0; placed < doubledRanks.length; placed++) {\n    work += Math.min(selectedN, placed + 1) * (maxSum - doubledRanks[placed]! + 1)\n  }\n  return {\n    states: (selectedN + 1) * (maxSum + 1),\n    work,\n  }\n}\n\n/**\n * Smallest attainable two-sided p under the observed ties.\n *\n * Only subsets with the minimum or maximum rank sum can attain the largest\n * deviation. Their multiplicity is the number of ways to choose within the\n * tie group at each boundary, so this calculation is exact without allocating\n * the full null distribution.\n */\nfunction exactTwoSampleFloor(doubledRanks: readonly number[], selectedN: number): number {\n  const total = doubledRanks.length\n  const otherN = total - selectedN\n  const minimumSum = doubledRanks.slice(0, selectedN).reduce((sum, rank) => sum + rank, 0)\n  const maximumSum = doubledRanks.slice(total - selectedN).reduce((sum, rank) => sum + rank, 0)\n  if (minimumSum === maximumSum) return 1\n\n  const centre = selectedN * (selectedN + 1) + selectedN * otherN\n  const minimumDeviation = Math.abs(minimumSum - centre)\n  const maximumDeviation = Math.abs(maximumSum - centre)\n  const totalLogWays = logChoose(total, selectedN)\n  const minimumMass = Math.exp(\n    logExtremeSubsetWays(doubledRanks, selectedN, 'minimum') - totalLogWays,\n  )\n  const maximumMass = Math.exp(\n    logExtremeSubsetWays(doubledRanks, selectedN, 'maximum') - totalLogWays,\n  )\n\n  if (minimumDeviation > maximumDeviation) return minimumMass\n  if (maximumDeviation > minimumDeviation) return maximumMass\n  return Math.min(1, minimumMass + maximumMass)\n}\n\nfunction logExtremeSubsetWays(\n  sortedRanks: readonly number[],\n  selectedN: number,\n  side: 'minimum' | 'maximum',\n): number {\n  const boundaryIndex = side === 'minimum' ? selectedN - 1 : sortedRanks.length - selectedN\n  const boundary = sortedRanks[boundaryIndex]!\n  let first = boundaryIndex\n  let afterLast = boundaryIndex + 1\n  while (first > 0 && sortedRanks[first - 1] === boundary) first--\n  while (afterLast < sortedRanks.length && sortedRanks[afterLast] === boundary) afterLast++\n\n  const tieSize = afterLast - first\n  const fixed = side === 'minimum' ? first : sortedRanks.length - afterLast\n  return logChoose(tieSize, selectedN - fixed)\n}\n\n/**\n * Exact conditional two-sided p for the two-sample rank test.\n *\n * Convolves the observed doubled midranks into the null distribution of group\n * a's rank sum over every `C(n₁+n₂, n₁)` split — identical to enumerating the\n * splits, but `O(N·n₁·ΣR)` instead of `O(C(N,n₁)·n₁n₂)`. Conditioning on the\n * realised multiset makes the tie handling exact rather than a correction.\n *\n * The null is symmetric about `n₁n₂/2` (negating every value maps `U → n₁n₂ −\n * U` and permutes the split set onto itself), so the two-sided p is the mass\n * at least as far from the centre as the observation.\n */\nfunction exactTwoSampleP(\n  doubledRanks: readonly number[],\n  n1: number,\n  n2: number,\n  doubledDeviation: number,\n): { p: number; pFloor: number } {\n  const maxSum = doubledRanks.reduce((sum, rank) => sum + rank, 0)\n  const width = maxSum + 1\n  // ways[k][s] = number of size-k subsets whose doubled rank sum is s.\n  const ways: Float64Array[] = Array.from({ length: n1 + 1 }, () => new Float64Array(width))\n  ways[0]![0] = 1\n  let placed = 0\n  for (const rank of doubledRanks) {\n    for (let k = Math.min(n1, placed + 1); k >= 1; k--) {\n      const from = ways[k - 1]!\n      const into = ways[k]!\n      for (let sum = maxSum - rank; sum >= 0; sum--) {\n        const count = from[sum]!\n        if (count !== 0) into[sum + rank]! += count\n      }\n    }\n    placed++\n  }\n\n  // U = rankSum − n₁(n₁+1)/2, so doubled U = s − n₁(n₁+1), and the doubled\n  // centre 2·(n₁n₂/2) is n₁n₂.\n  const shift = n1 * (n1 + 1) + n1 * n2\n  const chosen = ways[n1]!\n  let totalWays = 0\n  let extremeWays = 0\n  let tailWays = 0\n  let maxDeviation = -1\n  for (let sum = 0; sum < width; sum++) {\n    const count = chosen[sum]!\n    if (count === 0) continue\n    totalWays += count\n    const deviation = Math.abs(sum - shift)\n    if (deviation >= doubledDeviation) tailWays += count\n    if (deviation > maxDeviation) {\n      maxDeviation = deviation\n      extremeWays = count\n    } else if (deviation === maxDeviation) {\n      extremeWays += count\n    }\n  }\n  return { p: tailWays / totalWays, pFloor: extremeWays / totalWays }\n}\n\n/**\n * Exact conditional two-sided p for the paired signed-rank test.\n *\n * Convolves the observed doubled absolute midranks over all `2ⁿ` sign\n * assignments in `O(n·ΣR)`. Probabilities rather than counts keep `2ⁿ` off the\n * arithmetic. The null is symmetric about `n(n+1)/4`.\n */\nfunction exactSignedRankP(\n  doubledRanks: readonly number[],\n  doubledDeviation: number,\n): { p: number; pFloor: number } {\n  const maxSum = doubledRanks.reduce((sum, rank) => sum + rank, 0)\n  const width = maxSum + 1\n  let mass = new Float64Array(width)\n  mass[0] = 1\n  for (const rank of doubledRanks) {\n    const next = new Float64Array(width)\n    for (let sum = 0; sum < width; sum++) {\n      const probability = mass[sum]!\n      if (probability === 0) continue\n      next[sum]! += probability * 0.5\n      next[sum + rank]! += probability * 0.5\n    }\n    mass = next\n  }\n\n  const centre = maxSum / 2\n  let tail = 0\n  let extreme = 0\n  let maxDeviation = -1\n  for (let sum = 0; sum < width; sum++) {\n    const probability = mass[sum]!\n    if (probability === 0) continue\n    const deviation = Math.abs(sum - centre)\n    if (deviation >= doubledDeviation) tail += probability\n    if (deviation > maxDeviation) {\n      maxDeviation = deviation\n      extreme = probability\n    } else if (deviation === maxDeviation) {\n      extreme += probability\n    }\n  }\n  return { p: Math.min(1, tail), pFloor: Math.min(1, extreme) }\n}\n","/**\n * Matched-pair arm comparison — \"did the treatment arm beat the baseline arm\n * on the SAME work items?\"\n *\n * An arm A/B over run records is only trustworthy when it is PAIRED: the same\n * task/scenario/seed evaluated under both arms, compared item-by-item, so\n * inter-item difficulty variance cancels instead of masquerading as an arm\n * effect. This module owns the two error-prone steps every consumer otherwise\n * hand-rolls:\n *\n *   1. Pairing — matching rows across arms by `pairKey` (and by `repKey`\n *      within multi-rep items), with leftovers REPORTED rather than silently\n *      dropped (a silently unbalanced pairing biases every paired statistic\n *      downstream). Pairing never keys on outcome content: matching reps by\n *      their outcomes deflates discordant-pair counts and makes McNemar\n *      anti-conservative, so reps pair only by (`pairKey`, `repKey`) identity.\n *   2. Composition — feeding the matched pairs to the correct paired\n *      estimators that already live in `statistics`: `mcnemar` +\n *      `pairedRiskDifference` for pass/fail, `pairedBootstrap` +\n *      `wilcoxonSignedRank` for continuous metrics. No statistic is\n *      re-implemented here.\n *\n * The row shape is deliberately structural — callers project a `RunRecord`\n * (or any record) into `{ pairKey, arm, pass?, metrics? }`. Arm names are\n * caller-supplied parameters; the module ships no domain literal.\n */\n\nimport type { FindingTreatment } from './analyst/finding-composition'\nimport {\n  type ArmAssignment,\n  type ArmPopulationReading,\n  prepareArmPopulations,\n} from './arm-populations'\nimport { ValidationError } from './errors'\nimport type { RunRecord } from './run-record'\nimport type { McNemarResult, PairedBootstrapOptions, PairedBootstrapResult } from './statistics'\nimport {\n  mcnemar,\n  pairedBootstrap,\n  pairedRiskDifference,\n  type RiskDifferenceResult,\n  wilcoxonSignedRank,\n} from './statistics'\n\n/** One arm observation of one work item. Structural on purpose: callers\n *  project their own record type (e.g. a `RunRecord`) into this shape. */\nexport interface PairedArmRow {\n  /** Matching key — rows sharing a `pairKey` across both arms form pairs\n   *  (typically the task/scenario/seed identity). */\n  pairKey: string\n  /** Rep identity within a `pairKey` (e.g. a seed or rep number). Required on\n   *  every row of a `pairKey` that has more than one rep in either arm; reps\n   *  then pair only on exact (`pairKey`, `repKey`) match, never on outcome\n   *  content. Optional when each arm has at most one rep of the item. */\n  repKey?: string\n  /** Arm label this row was produced under. */\n  arm: string\n  /** Binary outcome; omit or null when no pass/fail outcome was observed. */\n  pass?: boolean | null\n  /** Actual formation verdict from the execution owner; absence/null stays unknown. */\n  formation?: { formed: boolean | null; reason?: string }\n  /** Recorded treatment provenance; assigned bundles live on the independent roster. */\n  treatment?: FindingTreatment[]\n  /** Named finite measurements; null/absent readings are unknown, not zero. */\n  metrics?: Record<string, number | null>\n}\n\nexport interface PairArmsOptions {\n  /** Arm treated as the control side of every pair. */\n  baselineArm: string\n  /** Arm treated as the treatment side of every pair. */\n  treatmentArm: string\n}\n\n/** One matched (baseline, treatment) observation of the same work item. */\nexport interface MatchedPair {\n  pairKey: string\n  /** 0-based position of this pair within its `pairKey`, ordered by sorted\n   *  `repKey` (always 0 for a single-rep item). The rep identity itself is on\n   *  the rows (`baseline.repKey` / `treatment.repKey`). */\n  repIndex: number\n  baseline: PairedArmRow\n  treatment: PairedArmRow\n}\n\nexport interface PairArmsResult {\n  /** Matched pairs, ordered by (`pairKey`, `repIndex`). */\n  pairs: MatchedPair[]\n  /** Baseline rows left without a treatment counterpart — reported, never\n   *  silently dropped. */\n  unpairedBaseline: PairedArmRow[]\n  /** Treatment rows left without a baseline counterpart. */\n  unpairedTreatment: PairedArmRow[]\n}\n\n/**\n * Match rows across two arms into (baseline, treatment) pairs by `pairKey`.\n *\n * A `pairKey` with at most one row per arm pairs directly, no `repKey`\n * needed. A `pairKey` with multiple reps in either arm requires `repKey` on\n * every one of its rows, and reps pair only on exact (`pairKey`, `repKey`)\n * match — pairing is keyed purely on row identity, never on outcome content\n * (outcome-keyed matching deflates discordant counts and biases McNemar), and\n * is therefore independent of input order. Reps whose `repKey` has no\n * counterpart in the other arm, and items present in only one arm, land in\n * the unpaired lists — reported, never truncated.\n *\n * Fail-loud: throws when either named arm has zero rows (an unknown arm\n * name would otherwise read as \"everything unpaired\"), when the two arm\n * names are equal, when a multi-rep `pairKey` has a row without `repKey`, or\n * when a (`pairKey`, arm) group repeats a `repKey` (the match would be\n * ambiguous).\n */\nexport function pairArms(rows: readonly PairedArmRow[], opts: PairArmsOptions): PairArmsResult {\n  const { baselineArm, treatmentArm } = opts\n  if (baselineArm === treatmentArm) {\n    throw new ValidationError(\n      `pairArms: baselineArm and treatmentArm are both '${baselineArm}' — an arm cannot be compared to itself`,\n    )\n  }\n\n  // arm → pairKey → rows\n  const byArm = new Map<string, Map<string, PairedArmRow[]>>()\n  const armsSeen = new Set<string>()\n  for (const row of rows) {\n    armsSeen.add(row.arm)\n    if (row.arm !== baselineArm && row.arm !== treatmentArm) continue\n    const byKey = byArm.get(row.arm) ?? new Map<string, PairedArmRow[]>()\n    const group = byKey.get(row.pairKey) ?? []\n    group.push(row)\n    byKey.set(row.pairKey, group)\n    byArm.set(row.arm, byKey)\n  }\n\n  for (const arm of [baselineArm, treatmentArm]) {\n    if (!byArm.has(arm)) {\n      const seen = [...armsSeen].sort().join(', ') || '<none>'\n      throw new ValidationError(`pairArms: no rows for arm '${arm}' (arms present: ${seen})`)\n    }\n  }\n\n  const baselineByKey = byArm.get(baselineArm)!\n  const treatmentByKey = byArm.get(treatmentArm)!\n\n  const allKeys = [...new Set([...baselineByKey.keys(), ...treatmentByKey.keys()])].sort()\n  const pairs: MatchedPair[] = []\n  const unpairedBaseline: PairedArmRow[] = []\n  const unpairedTreatment: PairedArmRow[] = []\n  for (const pairKey of allKeys) {\n    const b = baselineByKey.get(pairKey) ?? []\n    const t = treatmentByKey.get(pairKey) ?? []\n\n    if (b.length <= 1 && t.length <= 1) {\n      if (b.length === 1 && t.length === 1) {\n        const baseline = b[0]!\n        const treatment = t[0]!\n        if (baseline.repKey !== undefined || treatment.repKey !== undefined) {\n          if (\n            baseline.repKey === undefined ||\n            treatment.repKey === undefined ||\n            baseline.repKey !== treatment.repKey\n          ) {\n            unpairedBaseline.push(baseline)\n            unpairedTreatment.push(treatment)\n            continue\n          }\n        }\n        pairs.push({ pairKey, repIndex: 0, baseline, treatment })\n      } else {\n        unpairedBaseline.push(...b)\n        unpairedTreatment.push(...t)\n      }\n      continue\n    }\n\n    const bByRep = indexByRepKey(b, pairKey, baselineArm)\n    const tByRep = indexByRepKey(t, pairKey, treatmentArm)\n    const repKeys = [...new Set([...bByRep.keys(), ...tByRep.keys()])].sort()\n    let repIndex = 0\n    for (const repKey of repKeys) {\n      const baseline = bByRep.get(repKey)\n      const treatment = tByRep.get(repKey)\n      if (baseline !== undefined && treatment !== undefined) {\n        pairs.push({ pairKey, repIndex: repIndex++, baseline, treatment })\n      } else if (baseline !== undefined) {\n        unpairedBaseline.push(baseline)\n      } else if (treatment !== undefined) {\n        unpairedTreatment.push(treatment)\n      }\n    }\n  }\n\n  return { pairs, unpairedBaseline, unpairedTreatment }\n}\n\n/** Index a multi-rep (pairKey, arm) group by `repKey`, enforcing that every\n *  row carries one and that no repKey repeats within the group. */\nfunction indexByRepKey(\n  group: readonly PairedArmRow[],\n  pairKey: string,\n  arm: string,\n): Map<string, PairedArmRow> {\n  const byRep = new Map<string, PairedArmRow>()\n  for (const row of group) {\n    if (row.repKey === undefined) {\n      throw new ValidationError(\n        `pairArms: pairKey '${pairKey}' has multiple reps in an arm, but a row in arm '${arm}' ` +\n          `is missing repKey — multi-rep items require an explicit repKey on every row so reps ` +\n          `pair by identity (pairing reps by outcome or by index would bias the paired statistics)`,\n      )\n    }\n    if (byRep.has(row.repKey)) {\n      throw new ValidationError(\n        `pairArms: duplicate repKey '${row.repKey}' for pairKey '${pairKey}' in arm '${arm}' — ` +\n          `(pairKey, repKey) must uniquely identify a rep within an arm`,\n      )\n    }\n    byRep.set(row.repKey, row)\n  }\n  return byRep\n}\n\n/** Paired pass/fail comparison over the pairs where BOTH sides carry `pass`. */\nexport interface PairedCorrectness {\n  /** Discordant pairs where the treatment passed and the baseline failed. */\n  b10: number\n  /** Discordant pairs where the baseline passed and the treatment failed. */\n  b01: number\n  /** Exact McNemar significance over the paired outcomes (`b === b10`, `c === b01`). */\n  mcnemar: McNemarResult\n  /** Paired effect size: p(treatment) − p(baseline) with a paired-variance CI. */\n  riskDifference: RiskDifferenceResult\n}\n\n/** Paired delta summary for one named metric (delta = treatment − baseline). */\nexport interface PairedMetricDelta {\n  name: string\n  /** Pairs where BOTH sides carry a finite value for this metric. */\n  n: number\n  /** Pairs where at least one side does not carry the metric. */\n  nMissing: number\n  /** Median paired delta, or null when `n === 0`. */\n  medianDelta: number | null\n  /** Mean paired delta, or null when `n === 0`. */\n  meanDelta: number | null\n  /** Bootstrap CI on the paired delta (`pairedBootstrap`); null when\n   *  `n === 0` — a zero-width [0, 0] interval on no data would read as a\n   *  measured tight null. */\n  bootstrapCi: PairedBootstrapResult | null\n  /** Wilcoxon signed-rank test on the paired deltas; null when `n === 0`. */\n  wilcoxon: { w: number; p: number } | null\n}\n\nexport interface ComparePairedArmsOptions extends PairArmsOptions {\n  /** Supply all expected seeds to report as-assigned and as-formed populations. */\n  assignments?: readonly ArmAssignment[]\n  /** Metrics to compare. Default: every metric name observed on any matched\n   *  pair, sorted. A name that appears on no pair is still reported (with\n   *  `n = 0`) so a misspelled metric is visible instead of vanishing. */\n  metricNames?: string[]\n  /** Passed through to `pairedBootstrap` — set `seed` for reproducible CIs. */\n  bootstrap?: PairedBootstrapOptions\n}\n\nexport interface PairedArmsComparison {\n  /** Absent when the assignment population is unknown (no roster supplied). */\n  armPopulations?: ArmPopulationReading[]\n  nPairs: number\n  nUnpairedBaseline: number\n  nUnpairedTreatment: number\n  /** null when no matched pair carries `pass` on both sides — a pass/fail\n   *  verdict over rows that never measured pass/fail would be fabricated. */\n  correctness: PairedCorrectness | null\n  metricDeltas: PairedMetricDelta[]\n}\n\n/**\n * Full matched-pair arm comparison: pair via {@link pairArms}, then compose\n * the paired estimators from `statistics` over the matched pairs.\n *\n * Correctness uses only the pairs where both sides carry `pass` (`mcnemar.n`\n * is that subset's size); each metric uses only the pairs where both sides\n * carry a finite value for it, with the remainder counted in `nMissing`.\n * Deltas are treatment − baseline throughout. With an assignment roster, pairing\n * covers declared seed identities; missing observations remain identity-only rows\n * and never contribute fabricated outcomes or metrics. Per-arm summaries report\n * every assignment and the explicitly formed subset separately.\n *\n * Fail-loud: inherits {@link pairArms}'s unknown-arm throw, and throws on a\n * non-finite metric value — silently treating corrupt telemetry as \"metric\n * absent\" would misreport it as missing coverage.\n */\nexport function comparePairedArms(\n  rows: readonly PairedArmRow[],\n  opts: ComparePairedArmsOptions,\n): PairedArmsComparison {\n  const populations =\n    opts.assignments === undefined ? undefined : prepareArmPopulations(rows, opts.assignments, opts)\n  const { pairs, unpairedBaseline, unpairedTreatment } = pairArms(populations?.rows ?? rows, opts)\n\n  let correctness: PairedCorrectness | null = null\n  const baselinePass: number[] = []\n  const treatmentPass: number[] = []\n  for (const pair of pairs) {\n    if (pair.baseline.pass == null || pair.treatment.pass == null) continue\n    baselinePass.push(pair.baseline.pass ? 1 : 0)\n    treatmentPass.push(pair.treatment.pass ? 1 : 0)\n  }\n  if (baselinePass.length > 0) {\n    const mc = mcnemar(baselinePass, treatmentPass)\n    correctness = {\n      b10: mc.b,\n      b01: mc.c,\n      mcnemar: mc,\n      riskDifference: pairedRiskDifference(baselinePass, treatmentPass),\n    }\n  }\n\n  const metricNames =\n    opts.metricNames ??\n    [\n      ...new Set(\n        pairs.flatMap((p) => [\n          ...Object.keys(p.baseline.metrics ?? {}),\n          ...Object.keys(p.treatment.metrics ?? {}),\n        ]),\n      ),\n    ].sort()\n\n  const metricDeltas: PairedMetricDelta[] = metricNames.map((name) => {\n    const before: number[] = []\n    const after: number[] = []\n    let nMissing = 0\n    for (const pair of pairs) {\n      const b = metricValue(pair.baseline, name)\n      const t = metricValue(pair.treatment, name)\n      if (b === undefined || t === undefined) {\n        nMissing++\n        continue\n      }\n      before.push(b)\n      after.push(t)\n    }\n    const bootstrapCi = before.length === 0 ? null : pairedBootstrap(before, after, opts.bootstrap)\n    return {\n      name,\n      n: before.length,\n      nMissing,\n      medianDelta: bootstrapCi?.median ?? null,\n      meanDelta: bootstrapCi?.mean ?? null,\n      bootstrapCi,\n      wilcoxon: before.length === 0 ? null : wilcoxonSignedRank(before, after),\n    }\n  })\n\n  return {\n    ...(populations ? { armPopulations: populations.readings } : {}),\n    nPairs: pairs.length,\n    nUnpairedBaseline: unpairedBaseline.length,\n    nUnpairedTreatment: unpairedTreatment.length,\n    correctness,\n    metricDeltas,\n  }\n}\n\nexport interface MatchedRunRecordPair {\n  pairKey: string\n  repKey: string\n  baseline: RunRecord\n  treatment: RunRecord\n}\n\nexport interface PairRunRecordsResult {\n  pairs: MatchedRunRecordPair[]\n  unpairedBaseline: RunRecord[]\n  unpairedTreatment: RunRecord[]\n}\n\ninterface RunRecordArmRow extends PairedArmRow {\n  run: RunRecord\n  repKey: string\n}\n\n/**\n * Pair two RunRecord arms by the identity of the evaluated work:\n * `(experimentId, scenarioId, seed)`.\n *\n * Falling back to array order, candidate id, or experiment id can compare\n * different tasks and fabricate lift. Duplicate identities throw.\n */\nexport function pairRunRecords(\n  baselineRuns: readonly RunRecord[],\n  treatmentRuns: readonly RunRecord[],\n): PairRunRecordsResult {\n  const baselineRows = runRecordArmRows(baselineRuns, 'baseline')\n  const treatmentRows = runRecordArmRows(treatmentRuns, 'treatment')\n  validateRunRecordArmRows(baselineRows, 'baseline')\n  validateRunRecordArmRows(treatmentRows, 'treatment')\n  if (baselineRows.length === 0 || treatmentRows.length === 0) {\n    return {\n      pairs: [],\n      unpairedBaseline: baselineRows.map((row) => row.run),\n      unpairedTreatment: treatmentRows.map((row) => row.run),\n    }\n  }\n\n  const result = pairArms([...baselineRows, ...treatmentRows], {\n    baselineArm: 'baseline',\n    treatmentArm: 'treatment',\n  })\n  return {\n    pairs: result.pairs.map((pair) => {\n      const baseline = pair.baseline as RunRecordArmRow\n      const treatment = pair.treatment as RunRecordArmRow\n      return {\n        pairKey: pair.pairKey,\n        repKey: baseline.repKey,\n        baseline: baseline.run,\n        treatment: treatment.run,\n      }\n    }),\n    unpairedBaseline: result.unpairedBaseline.map((row) => (row as RunRecordArmRow).run),\n    unpairedTreatment: result.unpairedTreatment.map((row) => (row as RunRecordArmRow).run),\n  }\n}\n\nfunction runRecordArmRows(runs: readonly RunRecord[], arm: string): RunRecordArmRow[] {\n  return runs.map((run) => {\n    const scenarioId = run.scenarioId.trim()\n    if (!scenarioId) {\n      throw new ValidationError(\n        `pairRunRecords: run '${run.runId}' is missing scenarioId; paired comparisons require explicit scenario identity`,\n      )\n    }\n    return {\n      pairKey: JSON.stringify([run.experimentId, scenarioId]),\n      repKey: String(run.seed),\n      arm,\n      run,\n    }\n  })\n}\n\nfunction validateRunRecordArmRows(rows: readonly RunRecordArmRow[], arm: string): void {\n  const byPairKey = new Map<string, RunRecordArmRow[]>()\n  for (const row of rows) {\n    const group = byPairKey.get(row.pairKey) ?? []\n    group.push(row)\n    byPairKey.set(row.pairKey, group)\n  }\n  for (const [pairKey, group] of byPairKey) {\n    if (group.length > 1) indexByRepKey(group, pairKey, arm)\n  }\n}\n\nfunction metricValue(row: PairedArmRow, name: string): number | undefined {\n  const v = row.metrics?.[name]\n  if (v == null) return undefined\n  if (!Number.isFinite(v)) {\n    throw new ValidationError(\n      `comparePairedArms: non-finite value for metric '${name}' on pairKey '${row.pairKey}' (arm '${row.arm}'): ${v}`,\n    )\n  }\n  return 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+{"version":3,"file":"paired-arms-C0Vd9bGG.js","names":[],"sources":["../src/arm-populations.ts","../src/math/normal.ts","../src/statistics/rank-tests.ts","../src/paired-arms.ts"],"sourcesContent":["import type { FindingTreatment } from './analyst/finding-composition'\nimport { findingTreatmentSchema } from './analyst/finding-composition'\nimport type { PairedArmRow } from './paired-arms'\n\n/** Expected seed identities must be supplied independently of completed observations. */\nexport interface ArmAssignment {\n  pairKey: string\n  repKey?: string\n  arm: string\n  treatment?: FindingTreatment[]\n}\nexport interface ArmPopulationSummary {\n  n: number\n  passed: number\n  failed: number\n  missingOutcomes: number\n  /** Unknown unless every unit's outcome was observed; missing is never a failed check. */\n  passRate: number | null\n  metrics: Record<string, { n: number; missing: number; sum: number | null; mean: number | null }>\n}\nexport interface ArmPopulationReading {\n  arm: string\n  assignments: ArmAssignment[]\n  missingObservations: number\n  formation: { formed: number; notFormed: number; unknown: number }\n  asAssigned: ArmPopulationSummary\n  asFormed: ArmPopulationSummary\n}\n\nconst keyOf = (row: ArmAssignment): string =>\n  JSON.stringify([row.arm, row.pairKey, row.repKey ?? null])\nfunction checkIdentity(row: ArmAssignment): void {\n  for (const value of [row.arm, row.pairKey, ...(row.repKey === undefined ? [] : [row.repKey])]) {\n    if (typeof value !== 'string' || !value.trim())\n      throw new TypeError('Arm assignments require nonempty identities')\n  }\n  if (row.treatment !== undefined) {\n    if (!Array.isArray(row.treatment)) throw new TypeError('Arm treatment must be an array')\n    for (const value of row.treatment) findingTreatmentSchema.parse(value)\n    if (new Set(row.treatment.map((t) => t.id)).size !== row.treatment.length)\n      throw new TypeError('Duplicate arm treatment id')\n  }\n}\nfunction checkObservation(row: PairedArmRow): void {\n  checkIdentity(row)\n  if (row.pass != null && typeof row.pass !== 'boolean')\n    throw new TypeError('Invalid arm pass value')\n  if (row.formation !== undefined) {\n    if (row.formation === null || typeof row.formation !== 'object')\n      throw new TypeError('Invalid formation verdict')\n    if (row.formation.formed !== null && typeof row.formation.formed !== 'boolean')\n      throw new TypeError('Invalid formation state')\n    if (row.formation.reason !== undefined && typeof row.formation.reason !== 'string')\n      throw new TypeError('Invalid formation reason')\n  }\n  for (const value of Object.values(row.metrics ?? {})) {\n    if (value !== null && !Number.isFinite(value)) throw new TypeError('Non-finite arm metric')\n  }\n}\n\n/** One roster join serves comparison and both denominators; no outcomes are inferred from formation. */\nexport function prepareArmPopulations(\n  observations: readonly PairedArmRow[],\n  assignments: readonly ArmAssignment[],\n  options: { baselineArm: string; treatmentArm: string; metricNames?: string[] },\n): { rows: PairedArmRow[]; readings: ArmPopulationReading[] } {\n  const arms = [options.baselineArm, options.treatmentArm]\n  const roster = new Map<string, ArmAssignment>()\n  for (const entry of assignments) {\n    if (!arms.includes(entry.arm)) continue\n    checkIdentity(entry)\n    const key = keyOf(entry)\n    if (roster.has(key)) throw new TypeError('Duplicate arm assignment')\n    roster.set(key, structuredClone(entry))\n  }\n  for (const arm of arms)\n    if (![...roster.values()].some((r) => r.arm === arm))\n      throw new TypeError(`No assignment roster for arm '${arm}'`)\n  const actual = new Map<string, PairedArmRow>()\n  for (const row of observations) {\n    if (!arms.includes(row.arm)) continue\n    checkObservation(row)\n    const key = keyOf(row)\n    if (!roster.has(key)) throw new TypeError('Observed seed is outside the assignment roster')\n    if (actual.has(key)) throw new TypeError('Duplicate arm observation')\n    actual.set(key, row)\n  }\n  const ordered = [...roster.entries()].sort(([a], [b]) => (a < b ? -1 : a > b ? 1 : 0))\n  // Placeholder rows carry identities only. They never manufacture pass, metrics or formation.\n  const rows = ordered.map(([key, entry]) => actual.get(key) ?? entry)\n  const metricNames =\n    options.metricNames ??\n    [...new Set([...actual.values()].flatMap((r) => Object.keys(r.metrics ?? {})))].sort()\n  const readings = arms.map((arm) => {\n    const declared = ordered.filter(([, r]) => r.arm === arm)\n    const asAssigned = declared.map(([key]) => actual.get(key))\n    const asFormed = asAssigned.filter(\n      (row): row is PairedArmRow => row?.formation?.formed === true,\n    )\n    return {\n      arm,\n      assignments: declared.map(([, r]) => r),\n      missingObservations: asAssigned.filter((r) => r === undefined).length,\n      formation: {\n        formed: asFormed.length,\n        notFormed: asAssigned.filter((r) => r?.formation?.formed === false).length,\n        unknown: asAssigned.filter((r) => r?.formation?.formed == null).length,\n      },\n      asAssigned: summarize(asAssigned, metricNames),\n      asFormed: summarize(asFormed, metricNames),\n    }\n  })\n  return { rows, readings }\n}\n\nfunction summarize(\n  rows: readonly (PairedArmRow | undefined)[],\n  names: readonly string[],\n): ArmPopulationSummary {\n  const passed = rows.filter((r) => r?.pass === true).length\n  const failed = rows.filter((r) => r?.pass === false).length\n  const missingOutcomes = rows.length - passed - failed\n  const metrics = Object.fromEntries(\n    names.map((name) => {\n      const values = rows.map((r) => r?.metrics?.[name]).filter((x): x is number => x != null)\n      const sum = values.length ? values.reduce((s, v) => s + v, 0) : null\n      return [\n        name,\n        {\n          n: values.length,\n          missing: rows.length - values.length,\n          sum,\n          mean: sum === null ? null : sum / values.length,\n        },\n      ]\n    }),\n  )\n  return {\n    n: rows.length,\n    passed,\n    failed,\n    missingOutcomes,\n    passRate: rows.length && !missingOutcomes ? passed / rows.length : null,\n    metrics,\n  }\n}\n","/**\n * Standard normal cumulative distribution using Abramowitz and Stegun 7.1.26.\n *\n * The approximation is evaluated as erf(x / sqrt(2)). Computing the negative\n * tail from the complementary term avoids cancellation when x is far below 0.\n * The maximum absolute CDF error is approximately 7.5e-8.\n */\nexport function normalCdf(x: number): number {\n  if (x === 0) return 0.5\n\n  const a1 = 0.254829592\n  const a2 = -0.284496736\n  const a3 = 1.421413741\n  const a4 = -1.453152027\n  const a5 = 1.061405429\n  const p = 0.3275911\n\n  const scaled = Math.abs(x) / Math.SQRT2\n  const t = 1 / (1 + p * scaled)\n  const complement = ((((a5 * t + a4) * t + a3) * t + a2) * t + a1) * t * Math.exp(-scaled * scaled)\n\n  return x < 0 ? complement / 2 : 1 - complement / 2\n}\n","import { ValidationError } from '../errors'\nimport { normalCdf } from '../math/normal'\nimport { lnGamma } from '../math/special-functions'\nimport {\n  assertFiniteSample,\n  binomialSignTwoSided,\n  makeRng,\n  symmetricTwoSampleSeed,\n} from './internal'\n\n// Bounded exact midranks or seeded permutation; results expose their attainable p-grid.\n\nexport type RankTestMethod = 'exact' | 'permutation' | 'asymptotic'\n\n/** Auto selects bounded exact enumeration or seeded permutation; asymptotic requires an explicit request. */\nexport type RankTestMethodRequest = 'auto' | 'exact' | 'asymptotic'\n\nexport interface RankTestOptions {\n  /** Default `'auto'`. `'asymptotic'` inside the exact-feasible range throws. */\n  method?: RankTestMethodRequest\n  /** Resamples on the Monte Carlo permutation path. Default 100000. */\n  permutations?: number\n  /** Seed for the permutation path. Omitted ⇒ derived from the data itself, so\n   *  the result is reproducible either way. */\n  seed?: number\n}\n\n/** Maximum dynamic-programming cells used by an exact two-sample rank test. */\nconst MANN_WHITNEY_EXACT_MAX_STATES = 8_192\n/** Maximum inner-loop transitions used by an exact two-sample rank test. */\nconst MANN_WHITNEY_EXACT_MAX_WORK = 250_000\n/** Non-zero differences up to which the signed-rank null is enumerated exactly. */\nconst WILCOXON_EXACT_MAX_N = 20\n/** Resamples used when a rank test falls back to Monte Carlo permutation. */\nconst DEFAULT_PERMUTATIONS = 100_000\n\nexport interface MannWhitneyResult {\n  /** `min(U_a, U_b)` — the conventional reported statistic. */\n  u: number\n  /** U for sample `a`. Carries the direction of the effect, which `u` discards. */\n  uA: number\n  /** Two-sided p-value. */\n  p: number\n  /** How `p` was computed. */\n  method: RankTestMethod\n  /** Smallest two-sided p this design can produce. `p` can never be below it. */\n  pFloor: number\n}\n\n/**\n * Mann-Whitney U — two independent samples, no distributional assumption.\n *\n * Exact conditional (permutation) p by default when the dynamic program fits\n * {@link MANN_WHITNEY_EXACT_MAX_STATES} cells and\n * {@link MANN_WHITNEY_EXACT_MAX_WORK} transitions, seeded Monte Carlo\n * permutation above those limits. This keeps imbalanced designs such as 1+24\n * exact without admitting expensive balanced designs merely because they have\n * the same total size. Throws on non-finite input and on `method:\n * 'asymptotic'` where an exact answer is available. Empty input yields `p = 1,\n * pFloor = 1` — no design, no attainable evidence.\n */\nexport function mannWhitneyU(\n  a: number[],\n  b: number[],\n  opts: RankTestOptions = {},\n): MannWhitneyResult {\n  assertFiniteSample('mannWhitneyU', 'a', a)\n  assertFiniteSample('mannWhitneyU', 'b', b)\n\n  const n1 = a.length\n  const n2 = b.length\n  if (n1 === 0 || n2 === 0) return { u: 0, uA: 0, p: 1, method: 'exact', pFloor: 1 }\n\n  const total = n1 + n2\n  const combined = [\n    ...a.map((v) => ({ v, fromA: true })),\n    ...b.map((v) => ({ v, fromA: false })),\n  ].sort((x, y) => x.v - y.v)\n\n  const { midranks, tieTerm } = midranksWithTieTerm(combined.map((entry) => entry.v))\n  let rankSumA = 0\n  for (let k = 0; k < total; k++) {\n    if (combined[k]!.fromA) rankSumA += midranks[k]!\n  }\n\n  const uA = rankSumA - (n1 * (n1 + 1)) / 2\n  const u = Math.min(uA, n1 * n2 - uA)\n  // Midranks are integers or halves, so doubling makes the null convolution\n  // integral. U is centred on n₁n₂/2, hence a doubled centre of n₁n₂.\n  const doubled = midranks.map((rank) => Math.round(rank * 2))\n  const doubledDeviation = Math.abs(2 * uA - n1 * n2)\n  const selectedN = Math.min(n1, n2)\n  const otherN = total - selectedN\n  const exactCost = exactTwoSampleCost(doubled, selectedN)\n\n  const designFloor = exactTwoSampleFloor(doubled, selectedN)\n  const method = selectRankTestMethod(\n    'mannWhitneyU',\n    opts.method ?? 'auto',\n    `n1=${n1}, n2=${n2}`,\n    exactCost.states <= MANN_WHITNEY_EXACT_MAX_STATES &&\n      exactCost.work <= MANN_WHITNEY_EXACT_MAX_WORK,\n    designFloor,\n    `${MANN_WHITNEY_EXACT_MAX_STATES.toLocaleString('en-US')} states and ` +\n      `${MANN_WHITNEY_EXACT_MAX_WORK.toLocaleString('en-US')} transitions`,\n  )\n\n  if (method === 'exact') {\n    const { p, pFloor } = exactTwoSampleP(doubled, selectedN, otherN, doubledDeviation)\n    return { u, uA, p, method, pFloor }\n  }\n\n  if (method === 'asymptotic') {\n    return {\n      u,\n      uA,\n      p: asymptoticTwoSidedP(doubledDeviation / 2, twoSampleSigma(n1, n2, total, tieTerm)),\n      method,\n      pFloor: designFloor,\n    }\n  }\n\n  const permutations = resolvePermutations('mannWhitneyU', opts.permutations)\n  const rng = opts.seed === undefined ? makeRng(symmetricTwoSampleSeed(a, b)) : makeRng(opts.seed)\n  let atLeastAsExtreme = 0\n  const pool = [...doubled]\n  for (let iteration = 0; iteration < permutations; iteration++) {\n    let doubledRankSum = 0\n    for (let k = 0; k < selectedN; k++) {\n      const pick = k + Math.floor(rng() * (total - k))\n      const swapped = pool[pick]!\n      pool[pick] = pool[k]!\n      pool[k] = swapped\n      doubledRankSum += swapped\n    }\n    if (\n      Math.abs(doubledRankSum - selectedN * (selectedN + 1) - selectedN * otherN) >=\n      doubledDeviation\n    ) {\n      atLeastAsExtreme++\n    }\n  }\n  const pFloor = Math.max(1 / (permutations + 1), designFloor)\n  return {\n    u,\n    uA,\n    p: Math.max((1 + atLeastAsExtreme) / (permutations + 1), pFloor),\n    method,\n    pFloor,\n  }\n}\n\nexport interface WilcoxonSignedRankResult {\n  /** W⁺, the rank sum of the positive differences. (scipy reports\n   *  `min(W⁺, W⁻)`; compare statistics only after converting.) */\n  w: number\n  /** Two-sided p-value. */\n  p: number\n  /** How `p` was computed. */\n  method: RankTestMethod\n  /** Smallest two-sided p this design can produce. */\n  pFloor: number\n  /** Non-zero differences — zero differences are dropped and carry no rank. */\n  nNonZero: number\n}\n\n/**\n * Wilcoxon signed-rank — paired, no distributional assumption on the deltas.\n *\n * Exact conditional (sign-flip) p by default at `n ≤\n * {@link WILCOXON_EXACT_MAX_N}` non-zero differences, seeded Monte Carlo\n * permutation above it. Throws on non-finite input and on `method:\n * 'asymptotic'` where an exact answer is available.\n *\n * `n` is the count of NON-ZERO differences: exact ties are dropped before\n * ranking, so a run of tied pairs shrinks the design and raises `pFloor`.\n * All-tied input yields `p = 1, pFloor = 1` — no attainable evidence, which\n * `pFloor` states rather than leaving `p = 1` to be read as a measured null.\n */\nexport function wilcoxonSignedRank(\n  before: number[],\n  after: number[],\n  opts: RankTestOptions = {},\n): WilcoxonSignedRankResult {\n  if (before.length !== after.length) {\n    throw new ValidationError(\n      `wilcoxonSignedRank: unequal sample sizes (${before.length} vs ${after.length})`,\n    )\n  }\n  assertFiniteSample('wilcoxonSignedRank', 'before', before)\n  assertFiniteSample('wilcoxonSignedRank', 'after', after)\n\n  const diffs = before.map((b, i) => after[i]! - b).filter((d) => d !== 0)\n  const n = diffs.length\n  if (n === 0) return { w: 0, p: 1, method: 'exact', pFloor: 1, nNonZero: 0 }\n\n  // When every non-zero difference has the same magnitude, the signed-rank\n  // null reduces exactly to a binomial sign distribution. This is the common\n  // pass/fail shape ({-1, 0, +1}); recognizing it avoids a 100k-draw\n  // permutation for every repeated gate evaluation while preserving the exact\n  // p-value and attainable floor. Explicit method requests still retain their\n  // documented behavior.\n  const abs = Math.abs(diffs[0]!)\n  const allEqualAbs = diffs.every((d) => Math.abs(d) === abs)\n  if ((opts.method === undefined || opts.method === 'auto') && allEqualAbs) {\n    const positive = diffs.filter((d) => d > 0).length\n    const negative = n - positive\n    return {\n      w: (positive * (n + 1)) / 2,\n      p: binomialSignTwoSided(positive, negative),\n      method: 'exact',\n      pFloor: Math.min(1, 2 ** (1 - n)),\n      nNonZero: n,\n    }\n  }\n\n  const order = diffs.map((d, i) => ({ abs: Math.abs(d), i })).sort((x, y) => x.abs - y.abs)\n  const { midranks, tieTerm } = midranksWithTieTerm(order.map((entry) => entry.abs))\n  const ranks: number[] = new Array(n)\n  for (let k = 0; k < n; k++) ranks[order[k]!.i] = midranks[k]!\n\n  let wPlus = 0\n  for (let k = 0; k < n; k++) if (diffs[k]! > 0) wPlus += ranks[k]!\n\n  // Midranks are integers or halves; doubling makes the convolution integral.\n  // Σ midranks = n(n+1)/2 whatever the tie pattern, so E[W⁺] = n(n+1)/4 and\n  // the doubled centre is n(n+1)/2.\n  const doubled = midranks.map((rank) => Math.round(rank * 2))\n  const doubledDeviation = Math.abs(2 * wPlus - (n * (n + 1)) / 2)\n\n  const designFloor = Math.min(1, 2 ** (1 - n))\n  const method = selectRankTestMethod(\n    'wilcoxonSignedRank',\n    opts.method ?? 'auto',\n    `n=${n} non-zero differences`,\n    n <= WILCOXON_EXACT_MAX_N,\n    designFloor,\n    `${WILCOXON_EXACT_MAX_N} non-zero differences`,\n  )\n\n  if (method === 'exact') {\n    const { p, pFloor } = exactSignedRankP(doubled, doubledDeviation)\n    return { w: wPlus, p, method, pFloor, nNonZero: n }\n  }\n\n  if (method === 'asymptotic') {\n    const variance = (n * (n + 1) * (2 * n + 1)) / 24 - tieTerm / 48\n    return {\n      w: wPlus,\n      p: asymptoticTwoSidedP(doubledDeviation / 2, Math.sqrt(variance)),\n      method,\n      pFloor: designFloor,\n      nNonZero: n,\n    }\n  }\n\n  const permutations = resolvePermutations('wilcoxonSignedRank', opts.permutations)\n  const rng = makeRng(opts.seed, before, after)\n  const doubledCentre = (n * (n + 1)) / 2\n  let atLeastAsExtreme = 0\n  for (let iteration = 0; iteration < permutations; iteration++) {\n    let doubledWPlus = 0\n    for (let k = 0; k < n; k++) if (rng() < 0.5) doubledWPlus += doubled[k]!\n    if (Math.abs(doubledWPlus - doubledCentre) >= doubledDeviation) atLeastAsExtreme++\n  }\n  return {\n    w: wPlus,\n    p: (1 + atLeastAsExtreme) / (permutations + 1),\n    method,\n    pFloor: Math.max(1 / (permutations + 1), designFloor),\n    nNonZero: n,\n  }\n}\n\n/**\n * Average ranks over an ASCENDING-sorted array, plus `Σ(t³ − t)` over tie\n * groups of size `t` — the correction term both asymptotic rank-test variances\n * need.\n */\nfunction midranksWithTieTerm(sorted: readonly number[]): { midranks: number[]; tieTerm: number } {\n  const midranks = new Array<number>(sorted.length)\n  let tieTerm = 0\n  let i = 0\n  while (i < sorted.length) {\n    let j = i\n    while (j < sorted.length && sorted[j] === sorted[i]) j++\n    const average = (i + 1 + j) / 2\n    for (let k = i; k < j; k++) midranks[k] = average\n    const groupSize = j - i\n    if (groupSize > 1) tieTerm += groupSize ** 3 - groupSize\n    i = j\n  }\n  return { midranks, tieTerm }\n}\n\nfunction selectRankTestMethod(\n  fn: string,\n  request: RankTestMethodRequest,\n  design: string,\n  exactFeasible: boolean,\n  designFloor: number,\n  threshold: string,\n): RankTestMethod {\n  if (request === 'auto') return exactFeasible ? 'exact' : 'permutation'\n  if (request === 'exact') {\n    if (exactFeasible) return 'exact'\n    throw new ValidationError(\n      `${fn}: method 'exact' is out of range at ${design} — enumeration is bounded by ` +\n        `${threshold}. Use 'auto' for the seeded Monte Carlo permutation, which converges ` +\n        'to the same answer.',\n    )\n  }\n  if (exactFeasible) {\n    throw new ValidationError(\n      `${fn}: method 'asymptotic' is refused at ${design} — the exact p-grid at this design ` +\n        `starts at ${formatProbability(designFloor)}, so an asymptotic p below it describes no ` +\n        `attainable outcome. Use method 'exact' (the default) or add repetitions past ` +\n        `${threshold}.`,\n    )\n  }\n  return 'asymptotic'\n}\n\nfunction resolvePermutations(fn: string, permutations: number | undefined): number {\n  if (permutations === undefined) return DEFAULT_PERMUTATIONS\n  if (!Number.isInteger(permutations) || permutations < 1) {\n    throw new ValidationError(`${fn}: permutations must be a positive integer, got ${permutations}`)\n  }\n  return permutations\n}\n\n/** Two-sided normal-approximation tail with the continuity correction. */\nfunction asymptoticTwoSidedP(deviation: number, sigma: number): number {\n  if (!(sigma > 0)) return 1\n  return Math.min(1, 2 * (1 - normalCdf(Math.max(0, deviation - 0.5) / sigma)))\n}\n\n/** SD of U under the permutation null, corrected for the realised ties. The\n *  tie term reduces (N+1) and reaches it exactly when every value is tied, so\n *  the variance floors at 0 rather than going negative. */\nfunction twoSampleSigma(n1: number, n2: number, total: number, tieTerm: number): number {\n  if (total < 2) return 0\n  const variance = ((n1 * n2) / 12) * (total + 1 - tieTerm / (total * (total - 1)))\n  return Math.sqrt(Math.max(0, variance))\n}\n\nfunction logChoose(n: number, k: number): number {\n  return lnGamma(n + 1) - lnGamma(k + 1) - lnGamma(n - k + 1)\n}\n\nfunction formatProbability(value: number): string {\n  return value >= 1e-4 || value === 0 ? value.toFixed(4) : value.toExponential(3)\n}\n\n/**\n * Exact DP allocation and loop count for this observed rank vector.\n *\n * The smaller arm is sufficient because selecting its complement produces the\n * same two-sided U deviation while using fewer rows in the state table.\n */\nfunction exactTwoSampleCost(\n  doubledRanks: readonly number[],\n  selectedN: number,\n): { states: number; work: number } {\n  const maxSum = doubledRanks.reduce((sum, rank) => sum + rank, 0)\n  let work = 0\n  for (let placed = 0; placed < doubledRanks.length; placed++) {\n    work += Math.min(selectedN, placed + 1) * (maxSum - doubledRanks[placed]! + 1)\n  }\n  return {\n    states: (selectedN + 1) * (maxSum + 1),\n    work,\n  }\n}\n\n/**\n * Smallest attainable two-sided p under the observed ties.\n *\n * Only subsets with the minimum or maximum rank sum can attain the largest\n * deviation. Their multiplicity is the number of ways to choose within the\n * tie group at each boundary, so this calculation is exact without allocating\n * the full null distribution.\n */\nfunction exactTwoSampleFloor(doubledRanks: readonly number[], selectedN: number): number {\n  const total = doubledRanks.length\n  const otherN = total - selectedN\n  const minimumSum = doubledRanks.slice(0, selectedN).reduce((sum, rank) => sum + rank, 0)\n  const maximumSum = doubledRanks.slice(total - selectedN).reduce((sum, rank) => sum + rank, 0)\n  if (minimumSum === maximumSum) return 1\n\n  const centre = selectedN * (selectedN + 1) + selectedN * otherN\n  const minimumDeviation = Math.abs(minimumSum - centre)\n  const maximumDeviation = Math.abs(maximumSum - centre)\n  const totalLogWays = logChoose(total, selectedN)\n  const minimumMass = Math.exp(\n    logExtremeSubsetWays(doubledRanks, selectedN, 'minimum') - totalLogWays,\n  )\n  const maximumMass = Math.exp(\n    logExtremeSubsetWays(doubledRanks, selectedN, 'maximum') - totalLogWays,\n  )\n\n  if (minimumDeviation > maximumDeviation) return minimumMass\n  if (maximumDeviation > minimumDeviation) return maximumMass\n  return Math.min(1, minimumMass + maximumMass)\n}\n\nfunction logExtremeSubsetWays(\n  sortedRanks: readonly number[],\n  selectedN: number,\n  side: 'minimum' | 'maximum',\n): number {\n  const boundaryIndex = side === 'minimum' ? selectedN - 1 : sortedRanks.length - selectedN\n  const boundary = sortedRanks[boundaryIndex]!\n  let first = boundaryIndex\n  let afterLast = boundaryIndex + 1\n  while (first > 0 && sortedRanks[first - 1] === boundary) first--\n  while (afterLast < sortedRanks.length && sortedRanks[afterLast] === boundary) afterLast++\n\n  const tieSize = afterLast - first\n  const fixed = side === 'minimum' ? first : sortedRanks.length - afterLast\n  return logChoose(tieSize, selectedN - fixed)\n}\n\n/**\n * Exact conditional two-sided p for the two-sample rank test.\n *\n * Convolves the observed doubled midranks into the null distribution of group\n * a's rank sum over every `C(n₁+n₂, n₁)` split — identical to enumerating the\n * splits, but `O(N·n₁·ΣR)` instead of `O(C(N,n₁)·n₁n₂)`. Conditioning on the\n * realised multiset makes the tie handling exact rather than a correction.\n *\n * The null is symmetric about `n₁n₂/2` (negating every value maps `U → n₁n₂ −\n * U` and permutes the split set onto itself), so the two-sided p is the mass\n * at least as far from the centre as the observation.\n */\nfunction exactTwoSampleP(\n  doubledRanks: readonly number[],\n  n1: number,\n  n2: number,\n  doubledDeviation: number,\n): { p: number; pFloor: number } {\n  const maxSum = doubledRanks.reduce((sum, rank) => sum + rank, 0)\n  const width = maxSum + 1\n  // ways[k][s] = number of size-k subsets whose doubled rank sum is s.\n  const ways: Float64Array[] = Array.from({ length: n1 + 1 }, () => new Float64Array(width))\n  ways[0]![0] = 1\n  let placed = 0\n  for (const rank of doubledRanks) {\n    for (let k = Math.min(n1, placed + 1); k >= 1; k--) {\n      const from = ways[k - 1]!\n      const into = ways[k]!\n      for (let sum = maxSum - rank; sum >= 0; sum--) {\n        const count = from[sum]!\n        if (count !== 0) into[sum + rank]! += count\n      }\n    }\n    placed++\n  }\n\n  // U = rankSum − n₁(n₁+1)/2, so doubled U = s − n₁(n₁+1), and the doubled\n  // centre 2·(n₁n₂/2) is n₁n₂.\n  const shift = n1 * (n1 + 1) + n1 * n2\n  const chosen = ways[n1]!\n  let totalWays = 0\n  let extremeWays = 0\n  let tailWays = 0\n  let maxDeviation = -1\n  for (let sum = 0; sum < width; sum++) {\n    const count = chosen[sum]!\n    if (count === 0) continue\n    totalWays += count\n    const deviation = Math.abs(sum - shift)\n    if (deviation >= doubledDeviation) tailWays += count\n    if (deviation > maxDeviation) {\n      maxDeviation = deviation\n      extremeWays = count\n    } else if (deviation === maxDeviation) {\n      extremeWays += count\n    }\n  }\n  return { p: tailWays / totalWays, pFloor: extremeWays / totalWays }\n}\n\n/**\n * Exact conditional two-sided p for the paired signed-rank test.\n *\n * Convolves the observed doubled absolute midranks over all `2ⁿ` sign\n * assignments in `O(n·ΣR)`. Probabilities rather than counts keep `2ⁿ` off the\n * arithmetic. The null is symmetric about `n(n+1)/4`.\n */\nfunction exactSignedRankP(\n  doubledRanks: readonly number[],\n  doubledDeviation: number,\n): { p: number; pFloor: number } {\n  const maxSum = doubledRanks.reduce((sum, rank) => sum + rank, 0)\n  const width = maxSum + 1\n  let mass = new Float64Array(width)\n  mass[0] = 1\n  for (const rank of doubledRanks) {\n    const next = new Float64Array(width)\n    for (let sum = 0; sum < width; sum++) {\n      const probability = mass[sum]!\n      if (probability === 0) continue\n      next[sum]! += probability * 0.5\n      next[sum + rank]! += probability * 0.5\n    }\n    mass = next\n  }\n\n  const centre = maxSum / 2\n  let tail = 0\n  let extreme = 0\n  let maxDeviation = -1\n  for (let sum = 0; sum < width; sum++) {\n    const probability = mass[sum]!\n    if (probability === 0) continue\n    const deviation = Math.abs(sum - centre)\n    if (deviation >= doubledDeviation) tail += probability\n    if (deviation > maxDeviation) {\n      maxDeviation = deviation\n      extreme = probability\n    } else if (deviation === maxDeviation) {\n      extreme += probability\n    }\n  }\n  return { p: Math.min(1, tail), pFloor: Math.min(1, extreme) }\n}\n","/**\n * Matched-pair arm comparison — \"did the treatment arm beat the baseline arm\n * on the SAME work items?\"\n *\n * An arm A/B over run records is only trustworthy when it is PAIRED: the same\n * task/scenario/seed evaluated under both arms, compared item-by-item, so\n * inter-item difficulty variance cancels instead of masquerading as an arm\n * effect. This module owns the two error-prone steps every consumer otherwise\n * hand-rolls:\n *\n *   1. Pairing — matching rows across arms by `pairKey` (and by `repKey`\n *      within multi-rep items), with leftovers REPORTED rather than silently\n *      dropped (a silently unbalanced pairing biases every paired statistic\n *      downstream). Pairing never keys on outcome content: matching reps by\n *      their outcomes deflates discordant-pair counts and makes McNemar\n *      anti-conservative, so reps pair only by (`pairKey`, `repKey`) identity.\n *   2. Composition — feeding the matched pairs to the correct paired\n *      estimators that already live in `statistics`: `mcnemar` +\n *      `pairedRiskDifference` for pass/fail, `pairedBootstrap` +\n *      `wilcoxonSignedRank` for continuous metrics. No statistic is\n *      re-implemented here.\n *\n * The row shape is deliberately structural — callers project a `RunRecord`\n * (or any record) into `{ pairKey, arm, pass?, metrics? }`. Arm names are\n * caller-supplied parameters; the module ships no domain literal.\n */\n\nimport type { FindingTreatment } from './analyst/finding-composition'\nimport {\n  type ArmAssignment,\n  type ArmPopulationReading,\n  prepareArmPopulations,\n} from './arm-populations'\nimport { ValidationError } from './errors'\nimport type { RunRecord } from './run-record'\nimport type { McNemarResult, PairedBootstrapOptions, PairedBootstrapResult } from './statistics'\nimport {\n  mcnemar,\n  pairedBootstrap,\n  pairedRiskDifference,\n  type RiskDifferenceResult,\n  wilcoxonSignedRank,\n} from './statistics'\n\n/** One arm observation of one work item. Structural on purpose: callers\n *  project their own record type (e.g. a `RunRecord`) into this shape. */\nexport interface PairedArmRow {\n  /** Matching key — rows sharing a `pairKey` across both arms form pairs\n   *  (typically the task/scenario/seed identity). */\n  pairKey: string\n  /** Rep identity within a `pairKey` (e.g. a seed or rep number). Required on\n   *  every row of a `pairKey` that has more than one rep in either arm; reps\n   *  then pair only on exact (`pairKey`, `repKey`) match, never on outcome\n   *  content. Optional when each arm has at most one rep of the item. */\n  repKey?: string\n  /** Arm label this row was produced under. */\n  arm: string\n  /** Binary outcome; omit or null when no pass/fail outcome was observed. */\n  pass?: boolean | null\n  /** Actual formation verdict from the execution owner; absence/null stays unknown. */\n  formation?: { formed: boolean | null; reason?: string }\n  /** Recorded treatment provenance; assigned bundles live on the independent roster. */\n  treatment?: FindingTreatment[]\n  /** Named finite measurements; null/absent readings are unknown, not zero. */\n  metrics?: Record<string, number | null>\n}\n\nexport interface PairArmsOptions {\n  /** Arm treated as the control side of every pair. */\n  baselineArm: string\n  /** Arm treated as the treatment side of every pair. */\n  treatmentArm: string\n}\n\n/** One matched (baseline, treatment) observation of the same work item. */\nexport interface MatchedPair {\n  pairKey: string\n  /** 0-based position of this pair within its `pairKey`, ordered by sorted\n   *  `repKey` (always 0 for a single-rep item). The rep identity itself is on\n   *  the rows (`baseline.repKey` / `treatment.repKey`). */\n  repIndex: number\n  baseline: PairedArmRow\n  treatment: PairedArmRow\n}\n\nexport interface PairArmsResult {\n  /** Matched pairs, ordered by (`pairKey`, `repIndex`). */\n  pairs: MatchedPair[]\n  /** Baseline rows left without a treatment counterpart — reported, never\n   *  silently dropped. */\n  unpairedBaseline: PairedArmRow[]\n  /** Treatment rows left without a baseline counterpart. */\n  unpairedTreatment: PairedArmRow[]\n}\n\n/**\n * Match rows across two arms into (baseline, treatment) pairs by `pairKey`.\n *\n * A `pairKey` with at most one row per arm pairs directly, no `repKey`\n * needed. A `pairKey` with multiple reps in either arm requires `repKey` on\n * every one of its rows, and reps pair only on exact (`pairKey`, `repKey`)\n * match — pairing is keyed purely on row identity, never on outcome content\n * (outcome-keyed matching deflates discordant counts and biases McNemar), and\n * is therefore independent of input order. Reps whose `repKey` has no\n * counterpart in the other arm, and items present in only one arm, land in\n * the unpaired lists — reported, never truncated.\n *\n * Fail-loud: throws when either named arm has zero rows (an unknown arm\n * name would otherwise read as \"everything unpaired\"), when the two arm\n * names are equal, when a multi-rep `pairKey` has a row without `repKey`, or\n * when a (`pairKey`, arm) group repeats a `repKey` (the match would be\n * ambiguous).\n */\nexport function pairArms(rows: readonly PairedArmRow[], opts: PairArmsOptions): PairArmsResult {\n  const { baselineArm, treatmentArm } = opts\n  if (baselineArm === treatmentArm) {\n    throw new ValidationError(\n      `pairArms: baselineArm and treatmentArm are both '${baselineArm}' — an arm cannot be compared to itself`,\n    )\n  }\n\n  // arm → pairKey → rows\n  const byArm = new Map<string, Map<string, PairedArmRow[]>>()\n  const armsSeen = new Set<string>()\n  for (const row of rows) {\n    armsSeen.add(row.arm)\n    if (row.arm !== baselineArm && row.arm !== treatmentArm) continue\n    const byKey = byArm.get(row.arm) ?? new Map<string, PairedArmRow[]>()\n    const group = byKey.get(row.pairKey) ?? []\n    group.push(row)\n    byKey.set(row.pairKey, group)\n    byArm.set(row.arm, byKey)\n  }\n\n  for (const arm of [baselineArm, treatmentArm]) {\n    if (!byArm.has(arm)) {\n      const seen = [...armsSeen].sort().join(', ') || '<none>'\n      throw new ValidationError(`pairArms: no rows for arm '${arm}' (arms present: ${seen})`)\n    }\n  }\n\n  const baselineByKey = byArm.get(baselineArm)!\n  const treatmentByKey = byArm.get(treatmentArm)!\n\n  const allKeys = [...new Set([...baselineByKey.keys(), ...treatmentByKey.keys()])].sort()\n  const pairs: MatchedPair[] = []\n  const unpairedBaseline: PairedArmRow[] = []\n  const unpairedTreatment: PairedArmRow[] = []\n  for (const pairKey of allKeys) {\n    const b = baselineByKey.get(pairKey) ?? []\n    const t = treatmentByKey.get(pairKey) ?? []\n\n    if (b.length <= 1 && t.length <= 1) {\n      if (b.length === 1 && t.length === 1) {\n        const baseline = b[0]!\n        const treatment = t[0]!\n        if (baseline.repKey !== undefined || treatment.repKey !== undefined) {\n          if (\n            baseline.repKey === undefined ||\n            treatment.repKey === undefined ||\n            baseline.repKey !== treatment.repKey\n          ) {\n            unpairedBaseline.push(baseline)\n            unpairedTreatment.push(treatment)\n            continue\n          }\n        }\n        pairs.push({ pairKey, repIndex: 0, baseline, treatment })\n      } else {\n        unpairedBaseline.push(...b)\n        unpairedTreatment.push(...t)\n      }\n      continue\n    }\n\n    const bByRep = indexByRepKey(b, pairKey, baselineArm)\n    const tByRep = indexByRepKey(t, pairKey, treatmentArm)\n    const repKeys = [...new Set([...bByRep.keys(), ...tByRep.keys()])].sort()\n    let repIndex = 0\n    for (const repKey of repKeys) {\n      const baseline = bByRep.get(repKey)\n      const treatment = tByRep.get(repKey)\n      if (baseline !== undefined && treatment !== undefined) {\n        pairs.push({ pairKey, repIndex: repIndex++, baseline, treatment })\n      } else if (baseline !== undefined) {\n        unpairedBaseline.push(baseline)\n      } else if (treatment !== undefined) {\n        unpairedTreatment.push(treatment)\n      }\n    }\n  }\n\n  return { pairs, unpairedBaseline, unpairedTreatment }\n}\n\n/** Index a multi-rep (pairKey, arm) group by `repKey`, enforcing that every\n *  row carries one and that no repKey repeats within the group. */\nfunction indexByRepKey(\n  group: readonly PairedArmRow[],\n  pairKey: string,\n  arm: string,\n): Map<string, PairedArmRow> {\n  const byRep = new Map<string, PairedArmRow>()\n  for (const row of group) {\n    if (row.repKey === undefined) {\n      throw new ValidationError(\n        `pairArms: pairKey '${pairKey}' has multiple reps in an arm, but a row in arm '${arm}' ` +\n          `is missing repKey — multi-rep items require an explicit repKey on every row so reps ` +\n          `pair by identity (pairing reps by outcome or by index would bias the paired statistics)`,\n      )\n    }\n    if (byRep.has(row.repKey)) {\n      throw new ValidationError(\n        `pairArms: duplicate repKey '${row.repKey}' for pairKey '${pairKey}' in arm '${arm}' — ` +\n          `(pairKey, repKey) must uniquely identify a rep within an arm`,\n      )\n    }\n    byRep.set(row.repKey, row)\n  }\n  return byRep\n}\n\n/** Paired pass/fail comparison over the pairs where BOTH sides carry `pass`. */\nexport interface PairedCorrectness {\n  /** Discordant pairs where the treatment passed and the baseline failed. */\n  b10: number\n  /** Discordant pairs where the baseline passed and the treatment failed. */\n  b01: number\n  /** Exact McNemar significance over the paired outcomes (`b === b10`, `c === b01`). */\n  mcnemar: McNemarResult\n  /** Paired effect size: p(treatment) − p(baseline) with a paired-variance CI. */\n  riskDifference: RiskDifferenceResult\n}\n\n/** Paired delta summary for one named metric (delta = treatment − baseline). */\nexport interface PairedMetricDelta {\n  name: string\n  /** Pairs where BOTH sides carry a finite value for this metric. */\n  n: number\n  /** Pairs where at least one side does not carry the metric. */\n  nMissing: number\n  /** Median paired delta, or null when `n === 0`. */\n  medianDelta: number | null\n  /** Mean paired delta, or null when `n === 0`. */\n  meanDelta: number | null\n  /** Bootstrap CI on the paired delta (`pairedBootstrap`); null when\n   *  `n === 0` — a zero-width [0, 0] interval on no data would read as a\n   *  measured tight null. */\n  bootstrapCi: PairedBootstrapResult | null\n  /** Wilcoxon signed-rank test on the paired deltas; null when `n === 0`. */\n  wilcoxon: { w: number; p: number } | null\n}\n\nexport interface ComparePairedArmsOptions extends PairArmsOptions {\n  /** Supply all expected seeds to report as-assigned and as-formed populations. */\n  assignments?: readonly ArmAssignment[]\n  /** Metrics to compare. Default: every metric name observed on any matched\n   *  pair, sorted. A name that appears on no pair is still reported (with\n   *  `n = 0`) so a misspelled metric is visible instead of vanishing. */\n  metricNames?: string[]\n  /** Passed through to `pairedBootstrap` — set `seed` for reproducible CIs. */\n  bootstrap?: PairedBootstrapOptions\n}\n\nexport interface PairedArmsComparison {\n  /** Absent when the assignment population is unknown (no roster supplied). */\n  armPopulations?: ArmPopulationReading[]\n  nPairs: number\n  nUnpairedBaseline: number\n  nUnpairedTreatment: number\n  /** null when no matched pair carries `pass` on both sides — a pass/fail\n   *  verdict over rows that never measured pass/fail would be fabricated. */\n  correctness: PairedCorrectness | null\n  metricDeltas: PairedMetricDelta[]\n}\n\n/**\n * Full matched-pair arm comparison: pair via {@link pairArms}, then compose\n * the paired estimators from `statistics` over the matched pairs.\n *\n * Correctness uses only the pairs where both sides carry `pass` (`mcnemar.n`\n * is that subset's size); each metric uses only the pairs where both sides\n * carry a finite value for it, with the remainder counted in `nMissing`.\n * Deltas are treatment − baseline throughout. With an assignment roster, pairing\n * covers declared seed identities; missing observations remain identity-only rows\n * and never contribute fabricated outcomes or metrics. Per-arm summaries report\n * every assignment and the explicitly formed subset separately.\n *\n * Fail-loud: inherits {@link pairArms}'s unknown-arm throw, and throws on a\n * non-finite metric value — silently treating corrupt telemetry as \"metric\n * absent\" would misreport it as missing coverage.\n */\nexport function comparePairedArms(\n  rows: readonly PairedArmRow[],\n  opts: ComparePairedArmsOptions,\n): PairedArmsComparison {\n  const populations =\n    opts.assignments === undefined ? undefined : prepareArmPopulations(rows, opts.assignments, opts)\n  const { pairs, unpairedBaseline, unpairedTreatment } = pairArms(populations?.rows ?? rows, opts)\n\n  let correctness: PairedCorrectness | null = null\n  const baselinePass: number[] = []\n  const treatmentPass: number[] = []\n  for (const pair of pairs) {\n    if (pair.baseline.pass == null || pair.treatment.pass == null) continue\n    baselinePass.push(pair.baseline.pass ? 1 : 0)\n    treatmentPass.push(pair.treatment.pass ? 1 : 0)\n  }\n  if (baselinePass.length > 0) {\n    const mc = mcnemar(baselinePass, treatmentPass)\n    correctness = {\n      b10: mc.b,\n      b01: mc.c,\n      mcnemar: mc,\n      riskDifference: pairedRiskDifference(baselinePass, treatmentPass),\n    }\n  }\n\n  const metricNames =\n    opts.metricNames ??\n    [\n      ...new Set(\n        pairs.flatMap((p) => [\n          ...Object.keys(p.baseline.metrics ?? {}),\n          ...Object.keys(p.treatment.metrics ?? {}),\n        ]),\n      ),\n    ].sort()\n\n  const metricDeltas: PairedMetricDelta[] = metricNames.map((name) => {\n    const before: number[] = []\n    const after: number[] = []\n    let nMissing = 0\n    for (const pair of pairs) {\n      const b = metricValue(pair.baseline, name)\n      const t = metricValue(pair.treatment, name)\n      if (b === undefined || t === undefined) {\n        nMissing++\n        continue\n      }\n      before.push(b)\n      after.push(t)\n    }\n    const bootstrapCi = before.length === 0 ? null : pairedBootstrap(before, after, opts.bootstrap)\n    return {\n      name,\n      n: before.length,\n      nMissing,\n      medianDelta: bootstrapCi?.median ?? null,\n      meanDelta: bootstrapCi?.mean ?? null,\n      bootstrapCi,\n      wilcoxon: before.length === 0 ? null : wilcoxonSignedRank(before, after),\n    }\n  })\n\n  return {\n    ...(populations ? { armPopulations: populations.readings } : {}),\n    nPairs: pairs.length,\n    nUnpairedBaseline: unpairedBaseline.length,\n    nUnpairedTreatment: unpairedTreatment.length,\n    correctness,\n    metricDeltas,\n  }\n}\n\nexport interface MatchedRunRecordPair {\n  pairKey: string\n  repKey: string\n  baseline: RunRecord\n  treatment: RunRecord\n}\n\nexport interface PairRunRecordsResult {\n  pairs: MatchedRunRecordPair[]\n  unpairedBaseline: RunRecord[]\n  unpairedTreatment: RunRecord[]\n}\n\ninterface RunRecordArmRow extends PairedArmRow {\n  run: RunRecord\n  repKey: string\n}\n\n/**\n * Pair two RunRecord arms by the identity of the evaluated work:\n * `(experimentId, scenarioId, seed)`.\n *\n * Falling back to array order, candidate id, or experiment id can compare\n * different tasks and fabricate lift. Duplicate identities throw.\n */\nexport function pairRunRecords(\n  baselineRuns: readonly RunRecord[],\n  treatmentRuns: readonly RunRecord[],\n): PairRunRecordsResult {\n  const baselineRows = runRecordArmRows(baselineRuns, 'baseline')\n  const treatmentRows = runRecordArmRows(treatmentRuns, 'treatment')\n  validateRunRecordArmRows(baselineRows, 'baseline')\n  validateRunRecordArmRows(treatmentRows, 'treatment')\n  if (baselineRows.length === 0 || treatmentRows.length === 0) {\n    return {\n      pairs: [],\n      unpairedBaseline: baselineRows.map((row) => row.run),\n      unpairedTreatment: treatmentRows.map((row) => row.run),\n    }\n  }\n\n  const result = pairArms([...baselineRows, ...treatmentRows], {\n    baselineArm: 'baseline',\n    treatmentArm: 'treatment',\n  })\n  return {\n    pairs: result.pairs.map((pair) => {\n      const baseline = pair.baseline as RunRecordArmRow\n      const treatment = pair.treatment as RunRecordArmRow\n      return {\n        pairKey: pair.pairKey,\n        repKey: baseline.repKey,\n        baseline: baseline.run,\n        treatment: treatment.run,\n      }\n    }),\n    unpairedBaseline: result.unpairedBaseline.map((row) => (row as RunRecordArmRow).run),\n    unpairedTreatment: result.unpairedTreatment.map((row) => (row as RunRecordArmRow).run),\n  }\n}\n\nfunction runRecordArmRows(runs: readonly RunRecord[], arm: string): RunRecordArmRow[] {\n  return runs.map((run) => {\n    const scenarioId = run.scenarioId.trim()\n    if (!scenarioId) {\n      throw new ValidationError(\n        `pairRunRecords: run '${run.runId}' is missing scenarioId; paired comparisons require explicit scenario identity`,\n      )\n    }\n    return {\n      pairKey: JSON.stringify([run.experimentId, scenarioId]),\n      repKey: String(run.seed),\n      arm,\n      run,\n    }\n  })\n}\n\nfunction validateRunRecordArmRows(rows: readonly RunRecordArmRow[], arm: string): void {\n  const byPairKey = new Map<string, RunRecordArmRow[]>()\n  for (const row of rows) {\n    const group = byPairKey.get(row.pairKey) ?? []\n    group.push(row)\n    byPairKey.set(row.pairKey, group)\n  }\n  for (const [pairKey, group] of byPairKey) {\n    if (group.length > 1) indexByRepKey(group, pairKey, arm)\n  }\n}\n\nfunction metricValue(row: PairedArmRow, name: string): number | undefined {\n  const v = row.metrics?.[name]\n  if (v == null) return undefined\n  if (!Number.isFinite(v)) {\n    throw new ValidationError(\n      `comparePairedArms: non-finite value for metric '${name}' on pairKey '${row.pairKey}' (arm '${row.arm}'): ${v}`,\n    )\n  }\n  return 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package/dist/pipelines/index.d.ts

@@ -2,7 +2,7 @@ import { f as Run } from "../schema-CkIvnmLU.js";
 import { a as RunFilter, s as TraceStore } from "../store-CMs5wGXP.js";
 import { n as FailureClusterReport, r as failureClusterView, t as FailureCluster } from "../failure-cluster-DOoa7CBg.js";
 import { t as DiagnosisSpan } from "../spans-CGjHouKM.js";
-import { _ as computeToolUseMetrics, a as JudgeAgreementReport, c as BudgetBreachFinding, f as TrajectoryStep, i as toolWasteView, l as BudgetBreachReport, n as ToolWasteOptions, o as JudgePair, r as ToolWasteReport, s as judgeAgreementView, t as ToolWasteFinding, u as budgetBreachView, v as BaselineOptions } from "../tool-waste-BFG1vwTV.js";
+import { _ as computeToolUseMetrics, a as JudgeAgreementReport, c as BudgetBreachFinding, f as TrajectoryStep, i as toolWasteView, l as BudgetBreachReport, n as ToolWasteOptions, o as JudgePair, r as ToolWasteReport, s as judgeAgreementView, t as ToolWasteFinding, u as budgetBreachView, v as BaselineOptions } from "../tool-waste-CUASoTtk.js";
 /** One step of a run, as the diff reads it. */
 interface DiffStep {
   /** The step's id within its run. */

package/dist/{promotion-gate-CixshGI8.d.ts → promotion-gate-DOkgJcLW.d.ts}

@@ -2,12 +2,8 @@ import { o as FailureClass } from "./schema-CkIvnmLU.js";
 import { a as RunRecord, c as RunSplitTag } from "./run-record-D2BFMPGl.js";
 import { i as DatasetSplit, n as DatasetManifest, r as DatasetScenario } from "./dataset-DThC1S6G.js";
 import { S as HeldOutGateDecision } from "./summary-report-0La5vejY.js";
-/** How a rank test's p-value was actually computed. */
 type RankTestMethod = 'exact' | 'permutation' | 'asymptotic';
-/**
- * What the caller asks for. `'auto'` selects `'exact'` inside the enumeration
- * threshold and `'permutation'` above it, and never selects `'asymptotic'`.
- */
+/** Auto selects bounded exact enumeration or seeded permutation; asymptotic requires an explicit request. */
 type RankTestMethodRequest = 'auto' | 'exact' | 'asymptotic';
 interface RankTestOptions {
   /** Default `'auto'`. `'asymptotic'` inside the exact-feasible range throws. */
@@ -295,4 +291,4 @@ declare function judgeReplayGate<TOutput>(args: JudgeReplayGateArgs<TOutput>): P
   candidateSamples: number;
 }>;
 export { mannWhitneyU as C, WilcoxonSignedRankResult as S, evaluateReleaseConfidence as _, bootstrapCi as a, RankTestMethodRequest as b, ReleaseConfidenceAxis as c, ReleaseConfidenceIssue as d, ReleaseConfidenceMetrics as f, ReleaseTraceEvidence as g, ReleaseConfidenceThresholds as h, Verdict as i, ReleaseConfidenceAxisName as l, ReleaseConfidenceStatus as m, BootstrapResult as n, judgeReplayGate as o, ReleaseConfidenceScorecard as p, JudgeReplayGateArgs as r, ActionableSideInfo as s, BootstrapOptions as t, ReleaseConfidenceInput as u, MannWhitneyResult as v, wilcoxonSignedRank as w, RankTestOptions as x, RankTestMethod as y };
-//# sourceMappingURL=promotion-gate-CixshGI8.d.ts.map
+//# sourceMappingURL=promotion-gate-DOkgJcLW.d.ts.map

package/dist/promotion-gate-DOkgJcLW.d.ts.map

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+{"version":3,"file":"promotion-gate-DOkgJcLW.d.ts","names":[],"sources":["../src/statistics/rank-tests.ts","../src/release-confidence.ts","../src/promotion-gate.ts"],"mappings":";;;;KAYY;;KAGA;UAEK;;EAEf,SAAS;;EAET;;;EAGA;;UAYe;;EAEf;;EAEA;;EAEA;;EAEA,QAAQ;;EAER;;;;;;;;;;;;;;iBAec,aACd,aACA,aACA,OAAM,kBACL;UAuFc;;;EAGf;;EAEA;;EAEA,QAAQ;;EAER;;EAEA;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;iBAgBc,mBACd,kBACA,iBACA,OAAM,kBACL;;KChKE;;UAGY;;EAEf;;EAEA;EACA,WAAW;;EAEX;;EAEA;;EAEA;;EAEA;EACA,WAAW;;KAGD;KACA;UAQK;EACf;EACA;EACA,QAAQ;EACR;EACA;EACA;EACA;EACA;;EAEA,eAAe;EACf,MAAM;EACN,WAAW;;UAGI;;EAEf;EACA;EACA;EACA;;EAEA;EACA;EACA;;EAEA;EACA;EACA;;EAEA;;EAEA;;UAGe;EACf;EACA;EACA;EACA,UAAU;EACV,qBAAqB;EACrB,gBAAgB;EAChB,kBAAkB;EAClB,eAAe;EACf,aAAa;;UAGE;EACf,MAAM;EACN,QAAQ;EACR;EACA;;UAGe;EACf,MAAM;EACN;EACA;EACA;;UAGe;EACf;;EAEA;;EAEA;;EAEA;;EAEA;;EAEA;;EAEA;EACA;EACA;EACA;EACA;EACA;EACA;EACA;EACA;EACA;EACA;EACA;EACA,aAAa,OAAO;EACpB,cAAc;EACd,oBAAoB,QAAQ,OAAO;EACnC,0BAA0B;;;;;;;EAO1B;;UAGe;EACf;EACA;EACA;EACA,QAAQ;EACR;EACA,MAAM;EACN,QAAQ;EACR,SAAS;EACT,SAAS;EACT,cAAc;EACd;;iBAkBc,0BACd,OAAO,yBACN;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;KC3JS;UAEK;EACf;EACA;;EAEA;;EAEA;;EAEA;;EAEA;EACA;EACA,SAAS;;UAGM;;EAEf;;EAEA;;;;;;EAMA;;;EAGA;;;;;;;;;iBAUc,YACd,oBACA,qBACA,UAAS,mBACR;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;UA0Gc,oBAAoB;EACnC,iBAAiB;EACjB,kBAAkB;;EAElB,QAAQ,QAAQ,YAAY;EAC5B;EACA;;EAEA;;EAEA;;;;;iBAMoB,gBAAgB,SACpC,MAAM,oBAAoB,WACzB,QAAQ;EAAoB;EAAyB"}

package/dist/reporting.d.ts

@@ -1,7 +1,15 @@
 import { t as benjaminiHochberg } from "./multiplicity-D_SEsc5j.js";
 import { l as PairedBootstrapOptions, m as pairedBootstrap, u as PairedBootstrapResult } from "./paired-promotion-decision-BDnqepZ1.js";
-import { _ as evaluateReleaseConfidence, a as bootstrapCi, c as ReleaseConfidenceAxis, d as ReleaseConfidenceIssue, f as ReleaseConfidenceMetrics, g as ReleaseTraceEvidence, h as ReleaseConfidenceThresholds, i as Verdict, l as ReleaseConfidenceAxisName, m as ReleaseConfidenceStatus, n as BootstrapResult, o as judgeReplayGate, p as ReleaseConfidenceScorecard, r as JudgeReplayGateArgs, t as BootstrapOptions, u as ReleaseConfidenceInput, w as wilcoxonSignedRank } from "./promotion-gate-CixshGI8.js";
+import { _ as evaluateReleaseConfidence, a as bootstrapCi, c as ReleaseConfidenceAxis, d as ReleaseConfidenceIssue, f as ReleaseConfidenceMetrics, g as ReleaseTraceEvidence, h as ReleaseConfidenceThresholds, i as Verdict, l as ReleaseConfidenceAxisName, m as ReleaseConfidenceStatus, n as BootstrapResult, o as judgeReplayGate, p as ReleaseConfidenceScorecard, r as JudgeReplayGateArgs, t as BootstrapOptions, u as ReleaseConfidenceInput, w as wilcoxonSignedRank } from "./promotion-gate-DOkgJcLW.js";
 import { a as RubricPredictiveValidityReport, i as RubricPredictiveValidityInput, o as RubricRanking, r as RubricOutcomePair, s as rubricPredictiveValidity } from "./rubric-predictive-validity-B3RzbwOx.js";
 import { _ as gainHistogram, a as ResearchReportOptions, c as RESEARCH_REPORT_HARD_PAIR_FLOOR, d as GainDistributionOptions, f as ParetoFigureSpec, g as SummaryTableRow, h as SummaryTableOptions, i as ResearchReportMethodology, l as GainDistributionBin, m as SummaryTable, n as ResearchReportCandidate, o as ResearchReportRecommendation, p as ParetoPoint, r as ResearchReportDecision, s as researchReport, t as ResearchReport, u as GainDistributionFigureSpec, v as summaryTable } from "./summary-report-0La5vejY.js";
 import { a as PairedEvalueStep, c as SequentialDecision, i as PairedEvalueSequence, l as evaluateInterimReleaseConfidence, n as InterimReleaseConfidenceInput, r as PairedEvalueOptions, t as InterimReleaseConfidence, u as pairedEvalueSequence } from "./sequential-Bb_pdTqG.js";
-export { type BootstrapOptions, type BootstrapResult, type GainDistributionBin, type GainDistributionFigureSpec, type GainDistributionOptions, type InterimReleaseConfidence, type InterimReleaseConfidenceInput, type JudgeReplayGateArgs, type PairedBootstrapOptions, type PairedBootstrapResult, type PairedEvalueOptions, type PairedEvalueSequence, type PairedEvalueStep, type ParetoFigureSpec, type ParetoPoint, RESEARCH_REPORT_HARD_PAIR_FLOOR, type ReleaseConfidenceAxis, type ReleaseConfidenceAxisName, type ReleaseConfidenceInput, type ReleaseConfidenceIssue, type ReleaseConfidenceMetrics, type ReleaseConfidenceScorecard, type ReleaseConfidenceStatus, type ReleaseConfidenceThresholds, type ReleaseTraceEvidence, type ResearchReport, type ResearchReportCandidate, type ResearchReportDecision, type ResearchReportMethodology, type ResearchReportOptions, type ResearchReportRecommendation, type RubricOutcomePair, type RubricPredictiveValidityInput, type RubricPredictiveValidityReport, type RubricRanking, type SequentialDecision, type SummaryTable, type SummaryTableOptions, type SummaryTableRow, type Verdict, benjaminiHochberg, bootstrapCi, evaluateInterimReleaseConfidence, evaluateReleaseConfidence, gainHistogram, judgeReplayGate, pairedBootstrap, pairedEvalueSequence, researchReport, rubricPredictiveValidity, summaryTable, wilcoxonSignedRank };
+/** A text report column; `none` leaves the cell unpadded. */
+export interface ReportTableColumn {
+  header: string;
+  align?: 'left' | 'right' | 'none';
+}
+/** Render already-formatted measurements without changing values or missing-data labels. */
+export declare function formatReportTable(columns: readonly ReportTableColumn[], rows: readonly (readonly string[])[]): string;
+export { type BootstrapOptions, type BootstrapResult, type GainDistributionBin, type GainDistributionFigureSpec, type GainDistributionOptions, type InterimReleaseConfidence, type InterimReleaseConfidenceInput, type JudgeReplayGateArgs, type PairedBootstrapOptions, type PairedBootstrapResult, type PairedEvalueOptions, type PairedEvalueSequence, type PairedEvalueStep, type ParetoFigureSpec, type ParetoPoint, RESEARCH_REPORT_HARD_PAIR_FLOOR, type ReleaseConfidenceAxis, type ReleaseConfidenceAxisName, type ReleaseConfidenceInput, type ReleaseConfidenceIssue, type ReleaseConfidenceMetrics, type ReleaseConfidenceScorecard, type ReleaseConfidenceStatus, type ReleaseConfidenceThresholds, type ReleaseTraceEvidence, type ResearchReport, type ResearchReportCandidate, type ResearchReportDecision, type ResearchReportMethodology, type ResearchReportOptions, type ResearchReportRecommendation, type RubricOutcomePair, type RubricPredictiveValidityInput, type RubricPredictiveValidityReport, type RubricRanking, type SequentialDecision, type SummaryTable, type SummaryTableOptions, type SummaryTableRow, type Verdict, benjaminiHochberg, bootstrapCi, evaluateInterimReleaseConfidence, evaluateReleaseConfidence, gainHistogram, judgeReplayGate, pairedBootstrap, pairedEvalueSequence, researchReport, rubricPredictiveValidity, summaryTable, wilcoxonSignedRank };
+//# sourceMappingURL=reporting.d.ts.map

package/dist/reporting.d.ts.map

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+{"version":3,"file":"reporting.d.ts","names":[],"sources":["../src/reporting.ts"],"mappings":";;;;;;;iBA0EiB;EACf;EACA;;;wBAIc,kBACd,kBAAkB,qBAClB"}