@tangle-network/agent-eval 1.0.21 → 1.0.23

package/dist/{analyze-runs-jLTRKuoK.js.map → analyze-runs-BCSHzqna.js.map}

@@ -1 +1 @@
-{"version":3,"file":"analyze-runs-jLTRKuoK.js","names":["arithmeticMean","percentile"],"sources":["../src/baseline.ts","../src/contract/quality-insight.ts","../src/contract/comparison-insight.ts","../src/contract/execution-insight.ts","../src/contamination-guard.ts","../src/contract/failure-insight.ts","../src/contract/insight-recommendations.ts","../src/contract/analyze-runs.ts"],"sourcesContent":["/** Detect baseline regressions with Welch inference, effect size and per-side stability. */\n\nimport { interpolatedQuantile } from './math/quantile'\nimport { studentTQuantile } from './math/student-t'\nimport { cohensD } from './statistics/effect-sizes'\nimport { studentTTwoSidedPValue } from './statistics/inference'\n\ninterface MetricSamples {\n  /** Stable metric key (e.g. \"overallScore\", \"firstTokenMs\"). */\n  metric: string\n  /** Whether higher values are better. */\n  higherIsBetter: boolean\n  baseline: number[]\n  candidate: number[]\n}\n\nexport interface MetricVerdict {\n  metric: string\n  baselineMean: number\n  candidateMean: number\n  delta: number\n  /** Null when both samples are constant with unequal means — the standardized effect is unbounded there, not zero. */\n  cohensD: number | null\n  welchT: number\n  welchDf: number\n  welchP: number\n  stable: boolean\n  /** IQR of the combined samples — used as a rough stability indicator. */\n  iqr: number\n  verdict: 'improved' | 'regressed' | 'stable' | 'unstable'\n}\n\nexport interface BaselineReport {\n  metrics: MetricVerdict[]\n  /** True if any critical metric regressed. */\n  hasRegression: boolean\n  /** True if any metric is unstable (too noisy to judge). */\n  hasUnstable: boolean\n}\n\nexport interface BaselineOptions {\n  /** Effect size threshold for meaningful delta (default 0.5 — medium effect). */\n  effectThreshold?: number\n  /** p-value threshold for statistical significance (default 0.05). */\n  alpha?: number\n  /** IQR/mean ratio above which samples are flagged unstable (default 0.30). */\n  unstableCvThreshold?: number\n}\n\nexport type WelchTestStatus = 'ok' | 'insufficient-sample' | 'zero-variance'\n\n/** Independent b − a effects; insufficient counts or zero variance have no confidence interval. */\ninterface WelchTestResultBase {\n  meanA: number\n  meanB: number\n  delta: number\n}\n\nexport type WelchTestResult =\n  | (WelchTestResultBase & {\n      status: 'ok'\n      standardError: number\n      t: number\n      df: number\n      p: number\n      ci95: [number, number]\n      cohensD: number\n    })\n  | (WelchTestResultBase & {\n      status: 'insufficient-sample' | 'zero-variance'\n      standardError: number\n      t: number\n      df: number\n      p: number\n      ci95: null\n      cohensD: null\n    })\n\n/** Promotion requires stable samples, a meaningful effect in the right direction and significant inference. */\nexport function compareToBaseline(\n  samples: MetricSamples[],\n  options: BaselineOptions = {},\n): BaselineReport {\n  const effectThreshold = options.effectThreshold ?? 0.5\n  const alpha = options.alpha ?? 0.05\n  const cvThreshold = options.unstableCvThreshold ?? 0.3\n\n  const metrics: MetricVerdict[] = samples.map((s) => {\n    const comparison = welchsTTest(s.baseline, s.candidate)\n    if (comparison.status === 'insufficient-sample') {\n      throw new Error(`compareToBaseline: need ≥2 samples per side for \"${s.metric}\"`)\n    }\n    const { meanA: bMean, meanB: cMean, delta, cohensD: d, t, df, p } = comparison\n    // Per-side stability keeps a real mean shift distinct from noisy samples.\n    const baselineIqr = iqr(s.baseline)\n    const candidateIqr = iqr(s.candidate)\n    const baselineStable = baselineIqr / Math.max(Math.abs(bMean), 1e-9) <= cvThreshold\n    const candidateStable = candidateIqr / Math.max(Math.abs(cMean), 1e-9) <= cvThreshold\n    const stable = baselineStable && candidateStable\n    const reportedIqr = Math.max(baselineIqr, candidateIqr)\n\n    // Only status 'ok' can promote; null effects cannot fabricate bounded inference.\n    const effectClears = d === null || Math.abs(d) >= effectThreshold\n\n    let verdict: MetricVerdict['verdict']\n    if (!stable) {\n      verdict = 'unstable'\n    } else if (comparison.status === 'ok' && p < alpha && effectClears) {\n      const candidateIsBetter = s.higherIsBetter ? delta > 0 : delta < 0\n      verdict = candidateIsBetter ? 'improved' : 'regressed'\n    } else {\n      verdict = 'stable'\n    }\n\n    return {\n      metric: s.metric,\n      baselineMean: bMean,\n      candidateMean: cMean,\n      delta,\n      cohensD: d,\n      welchT: t,\n      welchDf: df,\n      welchP: p,\n      stable,\n      iqr: reportedIqr,\n      verdict,\n    }\n  })\n\n  return {\n    metrics,\n    hasRegression: metrics.some((m) => m.verdict === 'regressed'),\n    hasUnstable: metrics.some((m) => m.verdict === 'unstable'),\n  }\n}\n\nfunction mean(xs: number[]): number {\n  return xs.length ? xs.reduce((sum, value) => sum + value / xs.length, 0) : Number.NaN\n}\n\n/** Inter-quartile range; 0 when the sample has no spread. */\nexport function iqr(xs: number[]): number {\n  if (xs.length === 0) return 0\n  const sorted = [...xs].sort((a, b) => a - b)\n  return interpolatedQuantile(sorted, 0.75) - interpolatedQuantile(sorted, 0.25)\n}\n\n/** Use Student-t at finite df; unavailable inference is NaN with a null interval and explicit status. */\nexport function welchsTTest(a: number[], b: number[]): WelchTestResult {\n  assertFiniteSample('a', a)\n  assertFiniteSample('b', b)\n  const mA = mean(a)\n  const mB = mean(b)\n  const delta = mB - mA\n  if (\n    (a.length && !Number.isFinite(mA)) ||\n    (b.length && !Number.isFinite(mB)) ||\n    (a.length && b.length && !Number.isFinite(delta))\n  ) {\n    throw new RangeError('welchsTTest: sample arithmetic exceeded finite range')\n  }\n  if (a.length < 2 || b.length < 2) {\n    return {\n      status: 'insufficient-sample',\n      meanA: mA,\n      meanB: mB,\n      delta,\n      standardError: Number.NaN,\n      t: Number.NaN,\n      df: Number.NaN,\n      p: Number.NaN,\n      ci95: null,\n      cohensD: null,\n    }\n  }\n\n  const vA = variance(a, mA)\n  const vB = variance(b, mB)\n  const seSquared = vA / a.length + vB / b.length\n  if (!Number.isFinite(seSquared)) {\n    throw new RangeError('welchsTTest: sample arithmetic exceeded finite range')\n  }\n  const d = cohensD(a, b)\n  if (seSquared === 0) {\n    return {\n      status: 'zero-variance',\n      meanA: mA,\n      meanB: mB,\n      delta,\n      standardError: 0,\n      t: delta === 0 ? 0 : Math.sign(delta) * Number.POSITIVE_INFINITY,\n      df: Number.NaN,\n      p: Number.NaN,\n      ci95: null,\n      cohensD: null,\n    }\n  }\n\n  const standardError = Math.sqrt(seSquared)\n  const t = delta / standardError\n  const fractionA = vA / a.length / seSquared\n  const fractionB = vB / b.length / seSquared\n  const df = 1 / (fractionA ** 2 / (a.length - 1) + fractionB ** 2 / (b.length - 1))\n  const p = studentTTwoSidedPValue(t, df)\n  if (d === null) {\n    throw new Error('welchsTTest: non-zero standard error produced no pooled effect size')\n  }\n  const halfWidth = studentTQuantile(0.975, df) * standardError\n  if (![df, d, halfWidth, delta - halfWidth, delta + halfWidth].every(Number.isFinite)) {\n    throw new RangeError('welchsTTest: sample arithmetic exceeded finite range')\n  }\n  return {\n    status: 'ok',\n    meanA: mA,\n    meanB: mB,\n    delta,\n    standardError,\n    t,\n    df,\n    p,\n    ci95: [delta - halfWidth, delta + halfWidth],\n    cohensD: d,\n  }\n}\n\nfunction variance(xs: number[], m: number): number {\n  return xs.reduce((acc, x) => acc + (x - m) ** 2, 0) / (xs.length - 1)\n}\n\nfunction assertFiniteSample(name: string, sample: readonly number[]): void {\n  const invalid = sample.find((value) => !Number.isFinite(value))\n  if (invalid !== undefined) {\n    throw new RangeError(\n      `welchsTTest: sample ${name} must contain only finite values, got ${invalid}`,\n    )\n  }\n}\n","/** Observed score distributions, judge agreement, and downstream quality correlation. */\n\nimport { continuousAgreement } from '../judge-calibration'\nimport { interpolatedQuantile as percentile } from '../math/quantile'\nimport { observedSplitScore } from '../rollout/reward'\nimport type { RunRecord } from '../run-record'\nimport { pearsonR, spearmanR } from '../statistics'\nimport { mean as arithmeticMean, meanOrZero } from '../statistics/mean'\nimport type {\n  InterRaterInsight,\n  JudgeInsight,\n  OutcomeCorrelationInsight,\n  ScalarDistribution,\n} from './insight-report'\n\nexport function resolveSplit(\n  runs: RunRecord[],\n  pref: 'search' | 'holdout' | 'auto',\n): 'search' | 'holdout' {\n  if (pref !== 'auto') return pref\n  const hasHoldout = runs.some((r) => Number.isFinite(observedSplitScore(r, 'holdout')))\n  return hasHoldout ? 'holdout' : 'search'\n}\n\n/**\n * RAW (`observedSplitScore`): `analyzeRuns` describes what a set of runs\n * reported, and every downstream reader of this composite — distributions,\n * per-candidate summaries, the reward-hacking correlation — needs the ungated\n * number to see an inflated run at all.\n */\nexport function compositeOf(run: RunRecord, split: 'search' | 'holdout'): number {\n  // Split-exact, no cross-split fallthrough: answering \"what did this run\n  // score on the split I am summarising\" with the other split's number\n  // silently mixes populations.\n  const score = observedSplitScore(run, split)\n  return Number.isFinite(score) ? (score as number) : Number.NaN\n}\n\nexport function distributionOf(\n  values: number[],\n  bins: number,\n  withIds?: Array<{ runId: string; score: number }>,\n): ScalarDistribution {\n  if (values.length === 0) {\n    return {\n      n: 0,\n      mean: null,\n      p50: null,\n      p95: null,\n      stddev: null,\n      min: null,\n      max: null,\n      histogram: [],\n    }\n  }\n  const sorted = [...values].sort((a, b) => a - b)\n  const n = sorted.length\n  const mean = arithmeticMean(sorted)\n  const variance = sorted.reduce((s, v) => s + (v - mean) ** 2, 0) / n\n  const stddev = Math.sqrt(variance)\n  const tailRuns = withIds\n    ? [...withIds].sort((a, b) => a.score - b.score).slice(0, Math.min(5, withIds.length))\n    : undefined\n  return {\n    n,\n    mean,\n    p50: percentile(sorted, 0.5),\n    p95: percentile(sorted, 0.95),\n    stddev,\n    min: sorted[0]!,\n    max: sorted[n - 1]!,\n    histogram: histogram(sorted, bins),\n    ...(tailRuns ? { tailRuns } : {}),\n  }\n}\n\n/** Even-width histogram over the value range. Returns inclusive-lo /\n *  exclusive-hi bins (closed on right for the last bin) compatible with\n *  the substrate's `GainDistributionBin` shape. */\nfunction histogram(sorted: number[], bins: number): ScalarDistribution['histogram'] {\n  if (sorted.length === 0 || bins < 1) return []\n  const min = sorted[0]!\n  const max = sorted[sorted.length - 1]!\n  if (min === max) return [{ lo: min, hi: max, count: sorted.length }]\n  const width = (max - min) / bins\n  const out: ScalarDistribution['histogram'] = []\n  for (let i = 0; i < bins; i++) {\n    const lo = min + i * width\n    const hi = i === bins - 1 ? max : lo + width\n    out.push({ lo, hi, count: 0 })\n  }\n  for (const v of sorted) {\n    const idx = Math.min(bins - 1, Math.floor((v - min) / width))\n    out[idx]!.count++\n  }\n  return out\n}\n\nexport function computePerDimension(\n  runs: RunRecord[],\n  bins: number,\n): Record<string, ScalarDistribution> {\n  // JudgeScoresRecord pre-aggregates `perDimMean` (mean across judges per\n  // dimension). We collect those means across runs to produce a per-dim\n  // distribution at the corpus level. Consumers who want per-judge\n  // dimension values reach into `perJudge[judgeId][dim]` themselves.\n  const byDim = new Map<string, number[]>()\n  for (const run of runs) {\n    const scores = run.outcome.judgeScores\n    if (!scores) continue\n    for (const [dim, value] of Object.entries(scores.perDimMean ?? {})) {\n      if (!Number.isFinite(value)) continue\n      const arr = byDim.get(dim) ?? []\n      arr.push(value)\n      byDim.set(dim, arr)\n    }\n  }\n  const out: Record<string, ScalarDistribution> = {}\n  for (const [dim, values] of byDim) out[dim] = distributionOf(values, bins)\n  return out\n}\n\n/** Collect per-dimension values across runs (from outcome.judgeScores.perDimMean). */\nexport function collectPerDimension(runs: RunRecord[]): Record<string, number[]> {\n  const out: Record<string, number[]> = {}\n  for (const r of runs) {\n    const perDim = r.outcome.judgeScores?.perDimMean\n    if (!perDim) continue\n    for (const [dim, value] of Object.entries(perDim)) {\n      if (!Number.isFinite(value)) continue\n      if (!out[dim]) out[dim] = []\n      out[dim].push(value as number)\n    }\n  }\n  return out\n}\n\nexport function computeJudgeInsights(runs: RunRecord[]): Record<string, JudgeInsight> {\n  // Each judge's per-run mean is the average of its per-dimension scores\n  // for that run. We aggregate those means across all runs each judge\n  // scored — giving consumers a \"this judge's typical verdict\" reading.\n  const out: Record<string, JudgeInsight> = {}\n  const byJudge = new Map<string, number[]>()\n  for (const run of runs) {\n    const scores = run.outcome.judgeScores\n    if (!scores?.perJudge) continue\n    for (const [judgeId, dims] of Object.entries(scores.perJudge)) {\n      const dimValues = Object.values(dims).filter(Number.isFinite) as number[]\n      if (dimValues.length === 0) continue\n      const judgeMean = dimValues.reduce((s, v) => s + v, 0) / dimValues.length\n      const arr = byJudge.get(judgeId) ?? []\n      arr.push(judgeMean)\n      byJudge.set(judgeId, arr)\n    }\n  }\n  for (const [judgeId, values] of byJudge) {\n    out[judgeId] = {\n      n: values.length,\n      meanScore: values.reduce((s, v) => s + v, 0) / values.length,\n    }\n  }\n  return out\n}\n\nexport function computeInterRater(\n  ratings: Array<{ runId: string; rater: string; score: number }>,\n): InterRaterInsight | undefined {\n  const byRun = new Map<string, Array<{ rater: string; score: number }>>()\n  for (const r of ratings) {\n    if (!Number.isFinite(r.score)) continue\n    const list = byRun.get(r.runId) ?? []\n    list.push({ rater: r.rater, score: r.score })\n    byRun.set(r.runId, list)\n  }\n  const raters = new Set(ratings.map((r) => r.rater))\n  const jointlyRated: string[] = []\n  for (const [runId, ratersForRun] of byRun) {\n    const seen = new Set(ratersForRun.map((r) => r.rater))\n    let all = true\n    for (const r of raters) if (!seen.has(r)) all = false\n    if (all) jointlyRated.push(runId)\n  }\n  if (raters.size < 2 || jointlyRated.length === 0) return undefined\n\n  const raterList = [...raters].sort()\n  const perPair: Record<string, number> = {}\n  for (let i = 0; i < raterList.length; i++) {\n    for (let j = i + 1; j < raterList.length; j++) {\n      const a = raterList[i]!\n      const b = raterList[j]!\n      const aScores: number[] = []\n      const bScores: number[] = []\n      for (const runId of jointlyRated) {\n        const ratersForRun = byRun.get(runId)!\n        const sa = ratersForRun.find((r) => r.rater === a)?.score\n        const sb = ratersForRun.find((r) => r.rater === b)?.score\n        if (sa !== undefined && sb !== undefined) {\n          aScores.push(sa)\n          bScores.push(sb)\n        }\n      }\n      const agreement = continuousAgreement(\n        aScores.map((score, index) => [score, bScores[index]!]),\n        { bootstrap: 0 },\n      )\n      perPair[`${a}::${b}`] = agreement.weightedKappa\n    }\n  }\n  const matrix = jointlyRated.map((runId) => {\n    const ratingsByRater = new Map(byRun.get(runId)!.map((rating) => [rating.rater, rating.score]))\n    return raterList.map((rater) => ratingsByRater.get(rater)!)\n  })\n  const agreement = continuousAgreement(matrix, { bootstrap: 0 })\n\n  const disagreementCases = jointlyRated\n    .map((runId) => {\n      const ratersForRun = byRun.get(runId)!\n      const scores = ratersForRun.map((r) => r.score)\n      const range = Math.max(...scores) - Math.min(...scores)\n      return { runId, ratings: ratersForRun, range }\n    })\n    .sort((a, b) => b.range - a.range)\n    .slice(0, 20)\n\n  return {\n    raters: raters.size,\n    jointlyRated: jointlyRated.length,\n    kappa: Number.isFinite(agreement.weightedKappa) ? agreement.weightedKappa : 0,\n    icc: agreement.icc,\n    pearson: agreement.pearson,\n    spearman: agreement.spearman,\n    perPair,\n    disagreementCases,\n  }\n}\n\nexport function computeOutcomeCorrelation(\n  runs: RunRecord[],\n  outcome: { metric: string; valueByRunId: Record<string, number> },\n  split: 'search' | 'holdout',\n): OutcomeCorrelationInsight | undefined {\n  const xs: number[] = []\n  const ys: number[] = []\n  for (const run of runs) {\n    const y = outcome.valueByRunId[run.runId]\n    if (y === undefined || !Number.isFinite(y)) continue\n    const x = compositeOf(run, split)\n    if (!Number.isFinite(x)) continue\n    xs.push(x)\n    ys.push(y)\n  }\n  if (xs.length < 3) return undefined\n\n  const p = pearsonR(xs, ys)\n  const s = spearmanR(xs, ys)\n  const meanX = meanOrZero(xs)\n  const meanY = meanOrZero(ys)\n  let num = 0\n  let denom = 0\n  for (let i = 0; i < xs.length; i++) {\n    num += (xs[i]! - meanX) * (ys[i]! - meanY)\n    denom += (xs[i]! - meanX) ** 2\n  }\n  const slope = denom === 0 ? 0 : num / denom\n  const intercept = meanY - slope * meanX\n  const ssTot = ys.reduce((a, y) => a + (y - meanY) ** 2, 0)\n  const ssRes = ys.reduce((a, y, i) => a + (y - (intercept + slope * xs[i]!)) ** 2, 0)\n  const r2 = ssTot === 0 ? 0 : 1 - ssRes / ssTot\n\n  return {\n    metric: outcome.metric,\n    n: xs.length,\n    pearson: p,\n    spearman: s,\n    rewardModel: { intercept, slope, r2 },\n  }\n}\n\nexport function finiteCompositeScores(\n  runs: readonly RunRecord[],\n  split: 'search' | 'holdout',\n): number[] {\n  return runs.map((run) => compositeOf(run, split)).filter(Number.isFinite)\n}\n\nexport function isFiniteNumber(value: unknown): value is number {\n  return typeof value === 'number' && Number.isFinite(value)\n}\n","/** Paired candidate lift and independent prior-period metric comparisons. */\n\nimport { welchsTTest } from '../baseline'\nimport { aggregatePairedHoldout } from '../campaign/gates/statistical-heldout'\nimport { pairRunRecords } from '../paired-arms'\nimport type { RunRecord } from '../run-record'\nimport {\n  BOOTSTRAP_GATE_MIN_N,\n  pairedBootstrap,\n  pairedCohensDz,\n  pairedMde,\n  pairedTTest,\n  requiredPairedSampleSize,\n} from '../statistics'\nimport { meanOrZero } from '../statistics/mean'\nimport type { LiftInsight, MetricDelta, PriorPeriodComparison } from './insight-report'\nimport {\n  collectPerDimension,\n  compositeOf,\n  finiteCompositeScores,\n  isFiniteNumber,\n} from './quality-insight'\n\ntype MetricDirection = 'higher-is-better' | 'lower-is-better'\n\nexport function computePriorPeriodComparison(\n  current: RunRecord[],\n  baseline: RunRecord[],\n  split: 'search' | 'holdout',\n  windowLabel: string | undefined,\n): PriorPeriodComparison | undefined {\n  if (current.length === 0 || baseline.length === 0) return undefined\n\n  const metrics: Record<string, MetricDelta> = {}\n  const directions: Record<string, MetricDirection> = {}\n\n  const compositeCurrent = current\n    .map((r) => compositeOf(r, split))\n    .filter(Number.isFinite) as number[]\n  const compositeBaseline = baseline\n    .map((r) => compositeOf(r, split))\n    .filter(Number.isFinite) as number[]\n  if (compositeCurrent.length > 0 && compositeBaseline.length > 0) {\n    metrics.composite = welchCompare(compositeBaseline, compositeCurrent)\n    directions.composite = 'higher-is-better'\n  }\n\n  const costCurrent = knownCostValues(current)\n  const costBaseline = knownCostValues(baseline)\n  if (costCurrent.length > 0 && costBaseline.length > 0) {\n    metrics.cost = welchCompare(costBaseline, costCurrent)\n    directions.cost = 'lower-is-better'\n  }\n\n  const durCurrent = current.map((r) => r.wallMs).filter(Number.isFinite)\n  const durBaseline = baseline.map((r) => r.wallMs).filter(Number.isFinite)\n  if (durCurrent.length > 0 && durBaseline.length > 0) {\n    metrics.duration = welchCompare(durBaseline, durCurrent)\n    directions.duration = 'lower-is-better'\n  }\n\n  const tokCurrent = current\n    .map((r) => (r.tokenUsage.input ?? 0) + (r.tokenUsage.output ?? 0))\n    .filter(Number.isFinite)\n  const tokBaseline = baseline\n    .map((r) => (r.tokenUsage.input ?? 0) + (r.tokenUsage.output ?? 0))\n    .filter(Number.isFinite)\n  if (tokCurrent.length > 0 && tokBaseline.length > 0) {\n    metrics.tokenUsage = welchCompare(tokBaseline, tokCurrent)\n    directions.tokenUsage = 'lower-is-better'\n  }\n\n  // Per-dimension judge comparisons — only for dimensions present in BOTH\n  // windows. We use perDimMean since per-judge nesting is finicky for\n  // two-sample comparisons across different judge configurations.\n  const dimsCurrent = collectPerDimension(current)\n  const dimsBaseline = collectPerDimension(baseline)\n  for (const dim of Object.keys(dimsCurrent)) {\n    const b = dimsBaseline[dim]\n    const c = dimsCurrent[dim]\n    if (!b || b.length === 0 || !c || c.length === 0) continue\n    metrics[`dim.${dim}`] = welchCompare(b, c)\n    directions[`dim.${dim}`] = 'higher-is-better'\n  }\n\n  const regressedMetrics: string[] = []\n  const improvedMetrics: string[] = []\n  const inconclusiveMetrics: string[] = []\n  for (const [name, delta] of Object.entries(metrics)) {\n    if (delta.status !== 'ok') {\n      inconclusiveMetrics.push(name)\n      continue\n    }\n    if (!delta.significant) continue\n    const dir = directions[name] ?? 'higher-is-better'\n    const better = dir === 'higher-is-better' ? delta.delta > 0 : delta.delta < 0\n    if (better) improvedMetrics.push(name)\n    else regressedMetrics.push(name)\n  }\n\n  return {\n    baselineN: baseline.length,\n    currentN: current.length,\n    ...(windowLabel ? { windowLabel } : {}),\n    metrics,\n    regressedMetrics,\n    improvedMetrics,\n    inconclusiveMetrics,\n  }\n}\n\nfunction knownCostValues(runs: RunRecord[]): number[] {\n  return runs\n    .filter((run) => run.costProvenance.usd !== null)\n    .map((run) => run.costUsd)\n    .filter(isFiniteNumber)\n}\n\n/** Adapt the shared two-sample Welch result to the report contract. */\nfunction welchCompare(baseline: number[], current: number[]): MetricDelta {\n  const result = welchsTTest(baseline, current)\n  const base = {\n    current: result.meanB,\n    baseline: result.meanA,\n    delta: result.delta,\n    baselineN: baseline.length,\n    currentN: current.length,\n  }\n  if (result.status !== 'ok') {\n    return {\n      ...base,\n      status: result.status,\n      ci95: null,\n      pValue: null,\n      cohensD: null,\n      significant: false,\n    }\n  }\n  return {\n    ...base,\n    status: 'ok',\n    ci95: result.ci95,\n    pValue: result.p,\n    cohensD: result.cohensD,\n    significant: result.p < 0.05 && Math.abs(result.cohensD) >= 0.2,\n  }\n}\n\nexport function computeLift(\n  runs: RunRecord[],\n  baselineId: string | undefined,\n  candidateId: string | undefined,\n  split: 'search' | 'holdout',\n  independentUnitByScenarioId?: ReadonlyMap<string, string>,\n): LiftInsight | undefined {\n  let bId = baselineId\n  let cId = candidateId\n  if (!bId || !cId) {\n    // Auto-detect: when exactly two distinct candidateIds appear, treat the\n    // lower-mean side as baseline.\n    const ids = [...new Set(runs.map((r) => r.candidateId))]\n    if (ids.length !== 2) return undefined\n    const [idA, idB] = ids as [string, string]\n    const scoresA = finiteCompositeScores(\n      runs.filter((run) => run.candidateId === idA),\n      split,\n    )\n    const scoresB = finiteCompositeScores(\n      runs.filter((run) => run.candidateId === idB),\n      split,\n    )\n    if (scoresA.length === 0 || scoresB.length === 0) return undefined\n    const meanA = meanOrZero(scoresA)\n    const meanB = meanOrZero(scoresB)\n    bId = meanA <= meanB ? idA : idB\n    cId = meanA <= meanB ? idB : idA\n  }\n\n  const baseline = runs.filter((r) => r.candidateId === bId)\n  const candidate = runs.filter((r) => r.candidateId === cId)\n  if (baseline.length === 0 || candidate.length === 0) return undefined\n\n  const scoredBaseline = baseline.filter((run) => Number.isFinite(compositeOf(run, split)))\n  const scoredCandidate = candidate.filter((run) => Number.isFinite(compositeOf(run, split)))\n  const pairing = pairRunRecords(scoredBaseline, scoredCandidate)\n  let pairedBaseline = pairing.pairs.map((pair) => compositeOf(pair.baseline, split))\n  let pairedCandidate = pairing.pairs.map((pair) => compositeOf(pair.treatment, split))\n  if (pairedBaseline.length === 0) return undefined\n  const grouped = independentUnitByScenarioId\n    ? aggregatePairedHoldout(\n        {\n          before: pairedBaseline,\n          after: pairedCandidate,\n          // Pairing is already fixed by experiment, scenario, and seed.\n          // The ordinal labels each matched observation for the shared reducer.\n          cellIds: pairing.pairs.map((pair, index) => `${pair.pairKey}:${index}`),\n        },\n        new Map(\n          pairing.pairs.map((pair) => [\n            pair.pairKey,\n            independentUnitByScenarioId.get(pair.baseline.scenarioId)!,\n          ]),\n        ),\n      )\n    : undefined\n  if (grouped) {\n    pairedBaseline = grouped.before\n    pairedCandidate = grouped.after\n  }\n  const reverseInferredArms =\n    grouped !== undefined &&\n    (!baselineId || !candidateId) &&\n    meanOrZero(pairedBaseline) > meanOrZero(pairedCandidate)\n  if (reverseInferredArms) [pairedBaseline, pairedCandidate] = [pairedCandidate, pairedBaseline]\n\n  const baselineMean = meanOrZero(pairedBaseline)\n  const candidateMean = meanOrZero(pairedCandidate)\n  const delta = candidateMean - baselineMean\n\n  const bootstrap = pairedBootstrap(pairedBaseline, pairedCandidate, {\n    confidence: 0.95,\n    resamples: 2000,\n    statistic: 'mean',\n  })\n  const tTest = pairedTTest(pairedBaseline, pairedCandidate)\n  const d = pairedCohensDz(pairedBaseline, pairedCandidate)\n  const mde = pairedMde({ nPaired: pairedBaseline.length, power: 0.8, alpha: 0.05 })\n  const requiredN =\n    d === null || d === 0\n      ? null\n      : requiredPairedSampleSize({\n          effect: Math.abs(d),\n          power: 0.8,\n          alpha: 0.05,\n        })\n\n  return {\n    baselineMean,\n    candidateMean,\n    delta,\n    ci95: [bootstrap.low, bootstrap.high],\n    pValue: tTest.p,\n    n: pairedBaseline.length,\n    ...(grouped ? { pairedRunN: pairing.pairs.length, independentUnitIds: grouped.unitIds } : {}),\n    minimumRequired: BOOTSTRAP_GATE_MIN_N,\n    decisionEligible: bootstrap.gateEligible,\n    unpairedBaseline: (reverseInferredArms ? pairing.unpairedTreatment : pairing.unpairedBaseline)\n      .length,\n    unpairedCandidate: (reverseInferredArms ? pairing.unpairedBaseline : pairing.unpairedTreatment)\n      .length,\n    cohensD: d,\n    mde,\n    requiredN,\n  }\n}\n","/** Runtime usage, terminal outcomes, execution errors, and cost capture facts. */\n\nimport {\n  type RunRecord,\n  type RunTerminalOutcome,\n  type RunTokenUsage,\n  validateRunRecord,\n} from '../run-record'\nimport type { CostProvenanceSummary, ExecutionInsight, TokenUsageInsight } from './insight-report'\nimport { distributionOf } from './quality-insight'\n\nexport interface SummarizeExecutionOptions {\n  runs: RunRecord[]\n  histogramBins?: number\n}\n\nexport interface ExecutionReport {\n  execution: ExecutionInsight\n  costProvenance: CostProvenanceSummary\n}\n\n/** Summarize runtime facts without interpreting task quality or promotion readiness. */\nexport function summarizeExecution(opts: SummarizeExecutionOptions): ExecutionReport {\n  const runs = opts.runs.map(validateRunRecord)\n  const bins = opts.histogramBins ?? 12\n  return {\n    execution: computeExecutionInsight(runs, bins),\n    costProvenance: summarizeCostProvenance(runs),\n  }\n}\n\nfunction computeExecutionInsight(runs: RunRecord[], bins: number): ExecutionInsight {\n  const aggregateRows = runs.flatMap((run) => {\n    const usage = aggregateTokenUsage(run)\n    return usage ? [{ usage, costUsd: finiteRaw(run, 'aggregate_cost_usd') }] : []\n  })\n  const aggregateCosts = aggregateRows.flatMap((row) =>\n    row.costUsd !== undefined ? [row.costUsd] : [],\n  )\n  const modelCounts = new Map<string, number>()\n  let executionErrorRuns = 0\n  let executionErrorEvents = 0\n  let errorReportingRuns = 0\n  let errorSpanEvents = 0\n  let errorSpanReportingRuns = 0\n  const terminalOutcomes: Record<RunTerminalOutcome, number> = {\n    succeeded: 0,\n    failed: 0,\n    cancelled: 0,\n    incomplete: 0,\n    unknown: 0,\n  }\n  const errorsByTerminalOutcome: ExecutionInsight['executionErrors']['byTerminalOutcome'] = {\n    succeeded: { withErrors: 0, withoutErrors: 0, unreported: 0 },\n    failed: { withErrors: 0, withoutErrors: 0, unreported: 0 },\n    cancelled: { withErrors: 0, withoutErrors: 0, unreported: 0 },\n    incomplete: { withErrors: 0, withoutErrors: 0, unreported: 0 },\n    unknown: { withErrors: 0, withoutErrors: 0, unreported: 0 },\n  }\n  let modelCallRuns = 0\n  let modelCallEvents = 0\n  let modelCallReportingRuns = 0\n\n  for (const run of runs) {\n    modelCounts.set(run.model, (modelCounts.get(run.model) ?? 0) + 1)\n    const terminalOutcome = run.terminalOutcome\n    terminalOutcomes[terminalOutcome] += 1\n    const modelCalls = nonNegativeCountRaw(run, 'llm_span_count')\n    if (modelCalls !== undefined) {\n      modelCallEvents += modelCalls\n      modelCallReportingRuns += 1\n    }\n    const usage = run.tokenUsage\n    if (\n      (modelCalls ?? 0) > 0 ||\n      usage.input > 0 ||\n      usage.output > 0 ||\n      (usage.cached ?? 0) > 0 ||\n      (usage.cacheWrite ?? 0) > 0\n    ) {\n      modelCallRuns += 1\n    }\n    const errorEvents = reportedExecutionErrorEvents(run)\n    if (errorEvents !== undefined) {\n      executionErrorEvents += errorEvents\n      errorReportingRuns += 1\n      if (errorEvents > 0) {\n        executionErrorRuns += 1\n        errorsByTerminalOutcome[terminalOutcome].withErrors += 1\n      } else errorsByTerminalOutcome[terminalOutcome].withoutErrors += 1\n    } else errorsByTerminalOutcome[terminalOutcome].unreported += 1\n    const reportedErrorSpans = nonNegativeCountRaw(run, 'error_span_count')\n    if (reportedErrorSpans !== undefined) {\n      errorSpanEvents += reportedErrorSpans\n      errorSpanReportingRuns += 1\n    }\n  }\n\n  return {\n    durationMs: distributionOf(\n      runs.map((run) => run.wallMs),\n      bins,\n    ),\n    queueMs: distributionOf(\n      runs.filter((run) => run.queueMs !== undefined).map((run) => run.queueMs!),\n      bins,\n    ),\n    tokenUsage: summarizeTokenUsage(\n      runs.map((run) => run.tokenUsage),\n      bins,\n    ),\n    aggregateUsage: {\n      runs: aggregateRows.length,\n      tokenUsage: summarizeTokenUsage(\n        aggregateRows.map((row) => row.usage),\n        bins,\n      ),\n      costUsd: distributionOf(aggregateCosts, bins),\n      totalCostUsd: aggregateCosts.reduce((total, value) => total + value, 0),\n    },\n    models: [...modelCounts.entries()]\n      .map(([model, count]) => ({ model, runs: count }))\n      .sort((left, right) => right.runs - left.runs || left.model.localeCompare(right.model)),\n    modelCalls: {\n      runs: modelCallRuns,\n      events: modelCallEvents,\n      reportingRuns: modelCallReportingRuns,\n    },\n    executionErrors: {\n      runs: executionErrorRuns,\n      fraction: errorReportingRuns > 0 ? executionErrorRuns / errorReportingRuns : null,\n      events: executionErrorEvents,\n      reportingRuns: errorReportingRuns,\n      errorSpanEvents,\n      errorSpanReportingRuns,\n      byTerminalOutcome: errorsByTerminalOutcome,\n    },\n    terminalOutcomes,\n  }\n}\n\nfunction reportedExecutionErrorEvents(run: RunRecord): number | undefined {\n  return nonNegativeCountRaw(run, 'execution_error_count')\n}\n\nfunction nonNegativeCountRaw(run: RunRecord, key: string): number | undefined {\n  const value = finiteRaw(run, key)\n  return value !== undefined && Number.isInteger(value) && value >= 0 ? value : undefined\n}\n\nfunction summarizeTokenUsage(usages: RunTokenUsage[], bins: number): TokenUsageInsight {\n  const reasoning = usages.flatMap((usage) =>\n    usage.reasoning !== undefined ? [usage.reasoning] : [],\n  )\n  const cached = usages.flatMap((usage) => (usage.cached !== undefined ? [usage.cached] : []))\n  const cacheWrite = usages.flatMap((usage) =>\n    usage.cacheWrite !== undefined ? [usage.cacheWrite] : [],\n  )\n  return {\n    input: distributionOf(\n      usages.map((usage) => usage.input),\n      bins,\n    ),\n    output: distributionOf(\n      usages.map((usage) => usage.output),\n      bins,\n    ),\n    reasoning: distributionOf(reasoning, bins),\n    cached: distributionOf(cached, bins),\n    cacheWrite: distributionOf(cacheWrite, bins),\n    totals: {\n      input: usages.reduce((total, usage) => total + usage.input, 0),\n      output: usages.reduce((total, usage) => total + usage.output, 0),\n      reasoning: reasoning.reduce((total, value) => total + value, 0),\n      cached: cached.reduce((total, value) => total + value, 0),\n      cacheWrite: cacheWrite.reduce((total, value) => total + value, 0),\n    },\n  }\n}\n\nfunction aggregateTokenUsage(run: RunRecord): RunTokenUsage | undefined {\n  const input = finiteRaw(run, 'aggregate_prompt_tokens')\n  const output = finiteRaw(run, 'aggregate_completion_tokens')\n  const reasoning = finiteRaw(run, 'aggregate_reasoning_tokens')\n  const cached = finiteRaw(run, 'aggregate_cached_tokens')\n  const cacheWrite = finiteRaw(run, 'aggregate_cache_write_tokens')\n  if (\n    input === undefined &&\n    output === undefined &&\n    reasoning === undefined &&\n    cached === undefined &&\n    cacheWrite === undefined\n  )\n    return undefined\n  return {\n    input: input ?? 0,\n    output: output ?? 0,\n    ...(reasoning !== undefined ? { reasoning } : {}),\n    ...(cached !== undefined ? { cached } : {}),\n    ...(cacheWrite !== undefined ? { cacheWrite } : {}),\n  }\n}\n\nfunction finiteRaw(run: RunRecord, key: string): number | undefined {\n  const value = run.outcome.raw[key]\n  return typeof value === 'number' && Number.isFinite(value) && value >= 0 ? value : undefined\n}\n\nfunction summarizeCostProvenance(runs: RunRecord[]): CostProvenanceSummary {\n  const summary: CostProvenanceSummary = {\n    observed: { n: 0, totalUsd: 0 },\n    estimated: { n: 0, totalUsd: 0 },\n    lowerBound: { n: 0, floorUsd: 0 },\n    uncaptured: { n: 0 },\n    knownFraction: 0,\n  }\n  for (const run of runs) {\n    const cost = run.costProvenance\n    if (cost.kind === 'uncaptured') {\n      summary.uncaptured.n += 1\n    } else if (cost.kind === 'lower-bound') {\n      summary.lowerBound.n += 1\n      summary.lowerBound.floorUsd += cost.knownLowerBoundUsd\n    } else {\n      summary[cost.kind].n += 1\n      summary[cost.kind].totalUsd += cost.usd\n    }\n  }\n  const known = summary.observed.n + summary.estimated.n\n  summary.knownFraction = runs.length > 0 ? known / runs.length : 0\n  return summary\n}\n\nexport function diagnoseCostCoverage(runs: RunRecord[], provenance: CostProvenanceSummary): string {\n  const unknown = provenance.uncaptured.n + provenance.lowerBound.n\n  const known = provenance.observed.n + provenance.estimated.n\n  const floor =\n    provenance.lowerBound.n > 0\n      ? ` (${provenance.lowerBound.n} of them cost at least $${provenance.lowerBound.floorUsd.toFixed(6)} together)`\n      : ''\n  if (unknown === runs.length) {\n    return `USD cost total unknown for all ${runs.length} runs${floor} — no observed or estimated USD values; token and wall-time metrics remain available.`\n  }\n  return `USD cost total unknown for ${unknown}/${runs.length} runs${floor}; excluded those rows from cost statistics (${known}/${runs.length} retained: ${provenance.observed.n} observed, ${provenance.estimated.n} estimated).`\n}\n","/**\n * ContaminationGuard — ensures held-out scenarios don't leak into\n * training/prompt paths, and flags model memorization.\n *\n * Three probes:\n *   1. `checkCanaries(output, scenario)` — if the scenario carries a\n *      canary token, it MUST NOT appear in the agent's output.\n *      Canaries are strings that are statistically impossible to\n *      reconstruct from the scenario description alone — so if they\n *      echo back, the model memorized them.\n *   2. `canaryLeakView(store)` — cross-corpus view of every run whose\n *      output contained a canary, with the offending scenario + run.\n *   3. `HoldoutAuditor` — wraps a Dataset and emits a structured error\n *      on any code path that reads holdout scenarios but doesn't flag\n *      `purpose: 'evaluation'`. Keeps engineers honest.\n */\n\nimport type { DatasetScenario } from './dataset'\nimport { llmSpans } from './trace/query'\nimport type { TraceStore } from './trace/store'\n\nexport interface CanaryLeak {\n  scenarioId: string\n  canary: string\n  runId?: string\n  evidence: string\n}\n\nexport function checkCanaries(output: string, scenarios: DatasetScenario[]): CanaryLeak[] {\n  const leaks: CanaryLeak[] = []\n  for (const s of scenarios) {\n    if (!s.canary) continue\n    if (output.includes(s.canary)) {\n      leaks.push({ scenarioId: s.id, canary: s.canary, evidence: excerpt(output, s.canary) })\n    }\n  }\n  return leaks\n}\n\n/**\n * Behavioral canary: tests the AGENT, not the eval grep.\n *\n *   - `forbiddenPattern` PRESENT in output ⇒ AGENT EMITTED BAD CONTENT ⇒ LEAK.\n *   - `forbiddenPattern` ABSENT from output ⇒ AGENT HELD THE LINE       ⇒ PASS.\n *\n * Use when running known-bad-prompt scenarios against the agent under\n * test and you want to know if the agent misbehaved. The classical\n * {@link checkCanaries} / {@link import('./canary').runCanaries | runCanaries}\n * test whether the eval check fires when the bad output is forced\n * into the eval flow — different question, different answer.\n *\n * Pattern resolution order (first match wins):\n *   1. `scenario.forbiddenPattern` — if it parses as `/body/flags`,\n *      treated as a regex; otherwise a literal substring.\n *   2. `scenario.canary` — literal substring fallback so the helper\n *      works on existing scenario fixtures.\n *\n * Returns `null` when nothing forbidden was found OR the scenario\n * declared no pattern.\n */\nexport function checkBehavioralCanary(\n  output: string,\n  scenario: DatasetScenario,\n): CanaryLeak | null {\n  const pattern = scenario.forbiddenPattern ?? scenario.canary\n  if (!pattern) return null\n  const hit = matchForbidden(output, pattern)\n  if (!hit) return null\n  return {\n    scenarioId: scenario.id,\n    canary: pattern,\n    evidence: excerpt(output, hit),\n  }\n}\n\n/**\n * Resolve a forbidden-pattern string to the matched substring inside\n * `output`. `/body/flags` notation is interpreted as a regex; anything\n * else is a literal substring.\n */\nfunction matchForbidden(output: string, pattern: string): string | null {\n  const re = tryParseRegex(pattern)\n  if (re) {\n    const m = output.match(re)\n    return m && m[0].length > 0 ? m[0] : null\n  }\n  return output.includes(pattern) ? pattern : null\n}\n\nfunction tryParseRegex(pattern: string): RegExp | null {\n  if (pattern.length < 2 || pattern[0] !== '/') return null\n  const last = pattern.lastIndexOf('/')\n  if (last <= 0) return null\n  const body = pattern.slice(1, last)\n  const flags = pattern.slice(last + 1)\n  if (!/^[gimsuy]*$/.test(flags)) return null\n  try {\n    return new RegExp(body, flags)\n  } catch {\n    return null\n  }\n}\n\n/**\n * Scan the LLM-output history in a corpus; returns every case where a\n * canary from a known scenario appeared in agent output. Pass the full\n * set of scenarios whose canaries you care about (typically the whole\n * held-out slice).\n */\nexport async function canaryLeakView(\n  store: TraceStore,\n  scenarios: DatasetScenario[],\n): Promise<CanaryLeak[]> {\n  const targets = scenarios.filter((s) => !!s.canary)\n  if (targets.length === 0) return []\n  const spans = await llmSpans(store)\n  const leaks: CanaryLeak[] = []\n  for (const span of spans) {\n    const output = span.output ?? ''\n    for (const s of targets) {\n      if (s.canary && output.includes(s.canary)) {\n        leaks.push({\n          scenarioId: s.id,\n          canary: s.canary,\n          runId: span.runId,\n          evidence: excerpt(output, s.canary),\n        })\n      }\n    }\n  }\n  return leaks\n}\n\nexport class HoldoutAuditor {\n  private scenarios: DatasetScenario[]\n  private accessLog: Array<{ scenarioId: string; purpose: string; at: number }> = []\n\n  constructor(scenarios: DatasetScenario[]) {\n    this.scenarios = scenarios\n  }\n\n  /** Retrieve a holdout scenario for a declared purpose. Non-'evaluation' throws. */\n  get(scenarioId: string, purpose: 'evaluation' | 'debugging'): DatasetScenario {\n    if (purpose !== 'evaluation' && purpose !== 'debugging') {\n      throw new Error(\n        `HoldoutAuditor.get: purpose must be 'evaluation' or 'debugging', got ${purpose}`,\n      )\n    }\n    const s = this.scenarios.find((x) => x.id === scenarioId)\n    if (!s) throw new Error(`holdout scenario \"${scenarioId}\" not found`)\n    this.accessLog.push({ scenarioId, purpose, at: Date.now() })\n    return s\n  }\n\n  getAccessLog(): ReadonlyArray<{ scenarioId: string; purpose: string; at: number }> {\n    return this.accessLog\n  }\n}\n\nfunction excerpt(source: string, needle: string): string {\n  const at = source.indexOf(needle)\n  if (at < 0) return ''\n  const start = Math.max(0, at - 30)\n  const end = Math.min(source.length, at + needle.length + 30)\n  return (start > 0 ? '…' : '') + source.slice(start, end) + (end < source.length ? '…' : '')\n}\n","/** Task failure classes, analyst clusters, and canary contamination evidence. */\n\nimport type { AnalystRegistry } from '../analyst/registry'\nimport type { AnalystFinding } from '../analyst/types'\nimport { checkCanaries } from '../contamination-guard'\nimport type { DatasetScenario } from '../dataset'\nimport type { RunRecord } from '../run-record'\nimport type { FailureClass } from '../trace/schema'\nimport type { FailureClassTally, FailureClusterInsight, InsightReport } from './insight-report'\nimport { compositeOf } from './quality-insight'\n\n/**\n * Model-free task-failure tally.\n *\n * Explicit non-success classes are task-failure evidence.\n * A low task score without a class is counted as `unknown`.\n */\nexport function computeFailureClasses(\n  runs: RunRecord[],\n  split: 'search' | 'holdout',\n): FailureClassTally[] | undefined {\n  const counts = new Map<FailureClass, number>()\n  for (const r of runs) {\n    if (!isTaskFailure(r, split)) continue\n    const key =\n      r.failureClass !== undefined && r.failureClass !== 'success' ? r.failureClass : 'unknown'\n    counts.set(key, (counts.get(key) ?? 0) + 1)\n  }\n  if (counts.size === 0) return undefined\n  const n = runs.length\n  return [...counts.entries()]\n    .map(([failureClass, count]) => ({\n      failureClass,\n      count,\n      share: n > 0 ? count / n : 0,\n    }))\n    .sort((a, b) => b.count - a.count || a.failureClass.localeCompare(b.failureClass))\n}\n\nexport async function computeFailureClusters(\n  runs: RunRecord[],\n  analyst: AnalystRegistry,\n  split: 'search' | 'holdout',\n): Promise<FailureClusterInsight | undefined> {\n  const failed = runs.filter((run) => isTaskFailure(run, split))\n  if (failed.length === 0) return { clusters: [], totalFailures: 0 }\n\n  const clusters = new Map<string, { exemplars: string[]; runs: number }>()\n  const recordCluster = (key: string, runId: string) => {\n    const cluster = clusters.get(key) ?? { exemplars: [], runs: 0 }\n    cluster.runs += 1\n    if (cluster.exemplars.length < 5 && !cluster.exemplars.includes(runId)) {\n      cluster.exemplars.push(runId)\n    }\n    clusters.set(key, cluster)\n  }\n  for (const run of failed) {\n    try {\n      // AnalystRunInputs routes by field name: run-record analysts read\n      // `runRecord`. Any other shape makes every analyst skip with\n      // \"missing input\" and the clusters come back silently empty.\n      const result = await analyst.run(run.runId, { runRecord: run })\n      // One run can produce several findings in one cluster; count it once.\n      const keys = new Set(\n        result.findings.map(\n          (finding: AnalystFinding) => finding.area || finding.analyst_id || 'unclassified',\n        ),\n      )\n      for (const key of keys) recordCluster(key, run.runId)\n    } catch {\n      recordCluster('analyst-error', run.runId)\n    }\n  }\n  const clusterList = [...clusters.entries()].map(([id, c]) => ({\n    id,\n    name: id,\n    share: c.runs / failed.length,\n    exemplars: c.exemplars,\n  }))\n  clusterList.sort((a, b) => b.share - a.share)\n  return { clusters: clusterList, totalFailures: failed.length }\n}\n\nfunction isTaskFailure(run: RunRecord, split: 'search' | 'holdout'): boolean {\n  if (run.failureClass !== undefined && run.failureClass !== 'success') return true\n  const score = compositeOf(run, split)\n  return Number.isFinite(score) && score < 0.5\n}\n\nexport function computeContamination(\n  runs: RunRecord[],\n  canaries: DatasetScenario[],\n): InsightReport['contamination'] {\n  let leaks = 0\n  const details: Array<{ runId: string; canary: string; matched: string }> = []\n  for (const run of runs) {\n    const output = stringifyOutput(run)\n    if (!output) continue\n    const leaksHere = checkCanaries(output, canaries)\n    for (const leak of leaksHere) {\n      leaks++\n      details.push({ runId: run.runId, canary: leak.canary, matched: leak.evidence })\n    }\n  }\n  return { leaks, holdoutAuditPassed: leaks === 0, details }\n}\n\nfunction stringifyOutput(run: RunRecord): string | undefined {\n  // RunRecord doesn't fix where \"the agent's output\" lives — different\n  // consumers stash it differently. We probe the common shapes: the\n  // outcome.raw map (numeric only by design — unlikely to contain text),\n  // and any string-valued fields tucked under metadata via type casting.\n  // Consumers with bespoke shapes pass canaryScenarios only when they\n  // know their runs carry a stringifiable surface.\n  const metadata = (run as unknown as { metadata?: Record<string, unknown> }).metadata\n  if (typeof metadata?.output === 'string') return metadata.output\n  if (typeof metadata?.text === 'string') return metadata.text\n  return undefined\n}\n","/** Release readiness and recommended actions from an insight report's evidence. */\n\nimport type {\n  FailureClassTally,\n  FailureClusterInsight,\n  InsightReport,\n  InterRaterInsight,\n  JudgeInsight,\n  LiftInsight,\n  OutcomeCorrelationInsight,\n  PriorPeriodComparison,\n  Recommendation,\n  ScalarDistribution,\n} from './insight-report'\n\ninterface RecommendationContext {\n  composite: ScalarDistribution\n  judges: Record<string, JudgeInsight>\n  interRater?: InterRaterInsight\n  lift?: LiftInsight\n  failureClusters?: FailureClusterInsight\n  failureClasses?: FailureClassTally[]\n  contamination?: InsightReport['contamination']\n  outcomeCorrelation?: OutcomeCorrelationInsight\n  priorPeriodComparison?: PriorPeriodComparison\n  threshold: number\n}\n\n/** A bootstrap interval with no spread: every resample landed on the same\n *  value, so the interval carries no information about how far the point\n *  estimate could be wrong and cannot support a directional claim. */\nfunction zeroWidth(ci: readonly [number, number]): boolean {\n  return !Number.isFinite(ci[0]) || !Number.isFinite(ci[1]) || ci[0] === ci[1]\n}\n\nexport function buildReleaseScorecard(\n  composite: ScalarDistribution,\n  lift: LiftInsight | undefined,\n  contamination: InsightReport['contamination'],\n): InsightReport['release'] {\n  // Synthesise a minimal scorecard from the rolled-up signal. The\n  // substrate's `evaluateReleaseConfidence` primitive consumes a richer\n  // input shape that callers can produce by wiring SLO definitions; the\n  // shape here is the contract `selfImprove`/`analyzeRuns` consumers\n  // receive automatically. They can call `evaluateReleaseConfidence`\n  // directly when they want SLO-based axis evaluation.\n  const axes: InsightReport['release']['axes'] = []\n  const liftPass =\n    lift === undefined\n      ? ('not_evaluated' as const)\n      : !lift.decisionEligible\n        ? ('not_evaluated' as const)\n        : lift.ci95[0] > 0 && !zeroWidth(lift.ci95)\n          ? ('pass' as const)\n          : lift.delta > 0\n            ? ('warn' as const)\n            : ('fail' as const)\n  axes.push({\n    name: 'quality-lift',\n    status: liftPass,\n    detail: lift\n      ? `delta=${lift.delta.toFixed(3)}, CI95=[${lift.ci95[0].toFixed(3)}, ${lift.ci95[1].toFixed(3)}], n=${lift.n}${lift.decisionEligible ? '' : ` (descriptive only; ${lift.minimumRequired} required)`}`\n      : 'no baseline/candidate pair available',\n  })\n  const contamPass =\n    contamination === undefined\n      ? ('not_evaluated' as const)\n      : contamination.leaks === 0\n        ? ('pass' as const)\n        : ('fail' as const)\n  axes.push({\n    name: 'contamination',\n    status: contamPass,\n    detail: contamination ? `${contamination.leaks} canary leak(s)` : 'no canaries supplied',\n  })\n  axes.push(\n    composite.n === 0\n      ? {\n          name: 'composite-distribution',\n          status: 'not_evaluated',\n          detail: 'no task-quality scores available',\n        }\n      : {\n          name: 'composite-distribution',\n          status:\n            composite.mean !== null && composite.mean >= 0.5\n              ? 'pass'\n              : composite.mean !== null && composite.mean >= 0.3\n                ? 'warn'\n                : 'fail',\n          detail:\n            composite.mean === null || composite.p50 === null || composite.p95 === null\n              ? 'task-quality distribution is internally incomplete'\n              : `mean=${composite.mean.toFixed(3)}, p50=${composite.p50.toFixed(3)}, p95=${composite.p95.toFixed(3)} over n=${composite.n}`,\n        },\n  )\n  const status = axes.some((a) => a.status === 'fail')\n    ? 'fail'\n    : axes.some((a) => a.status === 'warn' || a.status === 'not_evaluated')\n      ? 'warn'\n      : 'pass'\n  return {\n    status,\n    axes,\n    issues: [],\n  }\n}\n\nexport function buildRecommendations(ctx: RecommendationContext): Recommendation[] {\n  const out: Recommendation[] = []\n\n  // Prior-period regressions — highest customer-impact signal when present.\n  // \"Did my last change help?\" with a falsifiable answer.\n  if (ctx.priorPeriodComparison) {\n    const ppc = ctx.priorPeriodComparison\n    const label = ppc.windowLabel ?? 'baseline period'\n    for (const name of ppc.regressedMetrics) {\n      const d = ppc.metrics[name]\n      if (d?.status !== 'ok') continue\n      out.push({\n        priority: 'critical',\n        kind: 'investigate',\n        title: `${name} regressed from ${d.baseline.toFixed(3)} → ${d.current.toFixed(3)} vs ${label}`,\n        detail: `Welch CI95 = [${d.ci95[0].toFixed(3)}, ${d.ci95[1].toFixed(3)}], p=${d.pValue.toFixed(4)}, Cohen's d=${d.cohensD.toFixed(2)} (n_current=${d.currentN}, n_baseline=${d.baselineN}). The regression is statistically significant at p<0.05 with at-least-small effect size.`,\n        evidencePath: `priorPeriodComparison.metrics.${name}`,\n      })\n    }\n    for (const name of ppc.improvedMetrics) {\n      const d = ppc.metrics[name]\n      if (d?.status !== 'ok') continue\n      out.push({\n        priority: 'low',\n        kind: 'ship',\n        title: `${name} improved from ${d.baseline.toFixed(3)} → ${d.current.toFixed(3)} vs ${label}`,\n        detail: `Welch CI95 = [${d.ci95[0].toFixed(3)}, ${d.ci95[1].toFixed(3)}], p=${d.pValue.toFixed(4)}, Cohen's d=${d.cohensD.toFixed(2)} (n_current=${d.currentN}, n_baseline=${d.baselineN}). Statistically significant improvement worth flagging.`,\n        evidencePath: `priorPeriodComparison.metrics.${name}`,\n      })\n    }\n    for (const name of ppc.inconclusiveMetrics) {\n      const d = ppc.metrics[name]\n      if (!d || d.status === 'ok' || d.delta === 0) continue\n      const reason =\n        d.status === 'zero-variance'\n          ? 'both periods have zero observed variance'\n          : 'one or both periods have fewer than two observations'\n      out.push({\n        priority: 'high',\n        kind: 'investigate',\n        title: `${name} changed from ${d.baseline.toFixed(3)} → ${d.current.toFixed(3)} vs ${label}; inference unavailable`,\n        detail: `Observed delta ${d.delta.toFixed(3)} across n_current=${d.currentN} and n_baseline=${d.baselineN}, but ${reason}. The report does not fabricate a p-value, confidence interval, or effect size; inspect independence and data capture before acting.`,\n        evidencePath: `priorPeriodComparison.metrics.${name}`,\n      })\n    }\n  }\n\n  // Composite-distribution branch. Fires when the overall quality signal is\n  // poor regardless of lift / contamination / clusters — the customer needs\n  // to know they have a problem AND which specific runs to inspect.\n  if (\n    ctx.composite.n > 0 &&\n    ctx.composite.mean !== null &&\n    ctx.composite.p50 !== null &&\n    ctx.composite.p95 !== null\n  ) {\n    if (ctx.composite.mean < 0.3) {\n      const tail = ctx.composite.tailRuns ?? []\n      const names = tail\n        .slice(0, 5)\n        .map((t) => `${t.runId}=${t.score.toFixed(3)}`)\n        .join(', ')\n      out.push({\n        priority: 'critical',\n        kind: 'investigate',\n        title: `Composite mean ${ctx.composite.mean.toFixed(3)} is below the 0.3 floor — the agent is broken on this corpus`,\n        detail:\n          tail.length > 0\n            ? `Worst ${tail.length} run${tail.length === 1 ? '' : 's'} to inspect first: ${names}. Histogram p50=${ctx.composite.p50.toFixed(3)}, p95=${ctx.composite.p95.toFixed(3)}.`\n            : `Histogram p50=${ctx.composite.p50.toFixed(3)}, p95=${ctx.composite.p95.toFixed(3)}.`,\n        evidencePath: 'composite.tailRuns',\n      })\n    } else if (ctx.composite.mean < 0.5) {\n      const tail = ctx.composite.tailRuns ?? []\n      const names = tail\n        .slice(0, 3)\n        .map((t) => `${t.runId}=${t.score.toFixed(3)}`)\n        .join(', ')\n      out.push({\n        priority: 'high',\n        kind: 'investigate',\n        title: `Composite mean ${ctx.composite.mean.toFixed(3)} is below 0.5 — investigate the lower tail before claiming the agent is healthy`,\n        detail:\n          tail.length > 0\n            ? `Worst ${tail.length} run${tail.length === 1 ? '' : 's'}: ${names}. Histogram p50=${ctx.composite.p50.toFixed(3)}, p95=${ctx.composite.p95.toFixed(3)}.`\n            : `Histogram p50=${ctx.composite.p50.toFixed(3)}, p95=${ctx.composite.p95.toFixed(3)}.`,\n        evidencePath: 'composite.tailRuns',\n      })\n    }\n  }\n\n  // A healthy-looking mean can hide a group of failed tasks sharing one\n  // producer-reported cause. This path does not require an analyst.\n  if (ctx.failureClasses && ctx.failureClasses.length > 0) {\n    const top = ctx.failureClasses[0]!\n    if (top.count >= 3 && top.share >= 0.15) {\n      out.push({\n        priority: top.share >= 0.25 ? 'high' : 'medium',\n        kind: 'investigate',\n        title: `'${top.failureClass}' is the dominant failure class — ${top.count} runs (${(top.share * 100).toFixed(0)}% of the corpus)`,\n        detail: `The mean composite can look acceptable while one failure class dominates the lower tail. ${top.count} of ${ctx.composite.n} runs failed with '${top.failureClass}'${ctx.failureClasses.length > 1 ? ` (next: '${ctx.failureClasses[1]!.failureClass}' ×${ctx.failureClasses[1]!.count})` : ''}. Fix this cause first.`,\n        evidencePath: 'failureClasses',\n      })\n    }\n  }\n\n  // Missing-judges branch. The report can't surface per-dimension or\n  // calibration signal when `outcome.judgeScores` is empty across the\n  // corpus. Tell the customer how to enrich.\n  if (Object.keys(ctx.judges).length === 0 && ctx.composite.n > 0) {\n    out.push({\n      priority: 'medium',\n      kind: 'expand-corpus',\n      title: 'No judge scores recorded — per-dimension + calibration insights unavailable',\n      detail:\n        'Records have no `outcome.judgeScores`. To unlock perDimension, judges, and calibration, attach a Judge run during your eval pass and populate `outcome.judgeScores.perJudge[judgeName][dimension] = score`. See `docs/insight-report.md` for the expected shape.',\n      evidencePath: 'judges',\n    })\n  }\n\n  if (ctx.lift) {\n    if (!ctx.lift.decisionEligible) {\n      out.push({\n        priority: 'high',\n        kind: 'expand-corpus',\n        title: `Inconclusive — ${ctx.lift.n} paired runs; ${ctx.lift.minimumRequired} required`,\n        detail: `The bootstrap interval is descriptive below ${ctx.lift.minimumRequired} paired observations and cannot support a ship decision.`,\n        evidencePath: 'lift',\n      })\n    } else {\n      const pairedEffect =\n        ctx.lift.cohensD === null ? 'undefined (zero delta variance)' : ctx.lift.cohensD.toFixed(2)\n      const pairedP =\n        ctx.lift.pValue === null ? 'undefined (zero delta variance)' : ctx.lift.pValue.toFixed(4)\n      const requiredRuns =\n        ctx.lift.requiredN === null ? 'not estimable' : `~${ctx.lift.requiredN} paired runs`\n      // A ZERO-WIDTH interval never reads as \"ship\": n identical paired deltas\n      // make every resample identical, so `[g, g]` clears any threshold below g\n      // and `[0, 0]` clears any negative `decisionThreshold`, on no spread at\n      // all. It falls through to the inconclusive/hold arms, which is where a\n      // sample carrying no information about its own error belongs.\n      const decisive = !zeroWidth(ctx.lift.ci95) && ctx.lift.ci95[0] > ctx.threshold\n      const inconclusive = ctx.lift.ci95[0] <= ctx.threshold && ctx.lift.ci95[1] > ctx.threshold\n      if (decisive) {\n        out.push({\n          priority: 'critical',\n          kind: 'ship',\n          title: `Ship — lift ${ctx.lift.delta.toFixed(3)} (95% CI ${ctx.lift.ci95[0].toFixed(3)}..${ctx.lift.ci95[1].toFixed(3)})`,\n          detail: `Holdout lift exceeds threshold ${ctx.threshold} with 95% bootstrap confidence (n=${ctx.lift.n}, p=${pairedP}, paired d=${pairedEffect}).`,\n          evidencePath: 'lift',\n        })\n      } else if (inconclusive) {\n        out.push({\n          priority: 'high',\n          kind: 'expand-corpus',\n          title: `Inconclusive — required sample is ${requiredRuns} (have ${ctx.lift.n}) at current effect size`,\n          detail: `CI straddles threshold. Current MDE at 80% power is ${ctx.lift.mde.toFixed(3)}; observed delta is ${ctx.lift.delta.toFixed(3)}.`,\n          evidencePath: 'lift',\n        })\n      } else {\n        out.push({\n          priority: 'critical',\n          kind: 'hold',\n          title: `Hold — lift CI lower bound ${ctx.lift.ci95[0].toFixed(3)} is at or below threshold ${ctx.threshold}`,\n          detail: `Bootstrap CI provides no statistical evidence the candidate is better. Consider tightening the mutation or expanding the holdout.`,\n          evidencePath: 'lift',\n        })\n      }\n    }\n  }\n\n  if (ctx.contamination && ctx.contamination.leaks > 0) {\n    out.push({\n      priority: 'critical',\n      kind: 'fix',\n      title: `${ctx.contamination.leaks} canary leak${ctx.contamination.leaks === 1 ? '' : 's'} detected`,\n      detail: `Holdout integrity is compromised. The lift number is unreliable until you investigate.`,\n      evidencePath: 'contamination',\n    })\n  }\n\n  if (ctx.interRater && ctx.interRater.kappa < 0.5) {\n    out.push({\n      priority: 'high',\n      kind: 'recalibrate',\n      title: `Inter-rater weighted kappa ${ctx.interRater.kappa.toFixed(2)} is below 0.5`,\n      detail:\n        'Raters disagree on what good looks like. Review the largest disagreement cases and refine the rubric before automating these decisions.',\n      evidencePath: 'interRater',\n    })\n  }\n\n  if (ctx.failureClusters && ctx.failureClusters.clusters.length > 0) {\n    const top = ctx.failureClusters.clusters[0]!\n    out.push({\n      priority: 'high',\n      kind: 'investigate',\n      title: `Top failure cluster: ${top.name} (${(top.share * 100).toFixed(0)}% of failures)`,\n      detail: `${ctx.failureClusters.totalFailures} runs failed. The largest cluster groups ${top.exemplars.length} exemplars under '${top.name}'.`,\n      evidencePath: 'failureClusters.clusters[0]',\n    })\n  }\n\n  if (ctx.outcomeCorrelation && Math.abs(ctx.outcomeCorrelation.spearman) < 0.3) {\n    out.push({\n      priority: 'medium',\n      kind: 'recalibrate',\n      title: `Judge scores decoupled from ${ctx.outcomeCorrelation.metric} (Spearman ρ=${ctx.outcomeCorrelation.spearman.toFixed(2)})`,\n      detail: `Your judges score what they were trained to score, but it isn't predicting downstream ${ctx.outcomeCorrelation.metric}. Consider retraining the judge against ${ctx.outcomeCorrelation.metric} as the gold signal.`,\n      evidencePath: 'outcomeCorrelation',\n    })\n  }\n\n  return out\n}\n","/**\n * # `analyzeRuns()` — turn a set of agent runs into an actionable decision packet.\n *\n * Wires the substrate's statistical, calibration, clustering, Pareto, and\n * release-confidence primitives into one `InsightReport`. Two top-level\n * entry points use this function:\n *\n *   - `selfImprove()` calls it on the campaign output to attach a packet\n *     to every run.\n *   - Consumers with observed `RunRecord[]` (production traces, gold\n *     corpora, approve/reject tables) call it directly via `analyzeRuns()`\n *     for analysis without a closed loop.\n *\n * Every section is opt-in based on what the input data supports — the\n * function never invents signal. If runs carry no judge scores, `judges`\n * is empty. If there's no baseline/candidate split, `lift` is undefined.\n * If no `analyst` is wired, `failureClusters` is undefined.\n *\n * The `recommendations` array is the human-readable layer; everything\n * else is the evidence backing each recommendation.\n */\n\nimport type { AnalystRegistry } from '../analyst/registry'\nimport type { DatasetScenario } from '../dataset'\nimport { type RunRecord, validateRunRecord } from '../run-record'\nimport { paretoChart } from '../summary-report'\nimport { computeLift, computePriorPeriodComparison } from './comparison-insight'\nimport { diagnoseCostCoverage, summarizeExecution } from './execution-insight'\nimport {\n  computeContamination,\n  computeFailureClasses,\n  computeFailureClusters,\n} from './failure-insight'\nimport { buildRecommendations, buildReleaseScorecard } from './insight-recommendations'\nimport type { InsightReport } from './insight-report'\nimport {\n  compositeOf,\n  computeInterRater,\n  computeJudgeInsights,\n  computeOutcomeCorrelation,\n  computePerDimension,\n  distributionOf,\n  isFiniteNumber,\n  resolveSplit,\n} from './quality-insight'\n\nexport type { ParetoFigureSpec } from '../summary-report'\nexport type { ExecutionReport, SummarizeExecutionOptions } from './execution-insight'\nexport { summarizeExecution } from './execution-insight'\n\nexport interface AnalyzeRunsOptions {\n  /** The runs to analyze. */\n  runs: RunRecord[]\n  /** Which split to score against when reading composite from RunOutcome.\n   *  Default: holdout when ANY run has a `holdoutScore`, else search. */\n  split?: 'search' | 'holdout' | 'auto'\n  /** Pairwise analysis configuration. When both `baselineCandidateId` and\n   *  `candidateCandidateId` are present, lift is computed on paired\n   *  (experimentId, scenarioId, seed) identities shared between the two sides.\n   *  Unmatched rows remain visible in the lift result. */\n  baselineCandidateId?: string\n  candidateCandidateId?: string\n  /** Average matched run scores within these units before estimating lift.\n   *  Raw run distributions and unmatched-run counts remain unchanged. */\n  independentUnitByScenarioId?: ReadonlyMap<string, string>\n  /** Canary scenarios — checked against every run's raw output for\n   *  holdout contamination. */\n  canaryScenarios?: DatasetScenario[]\n  /** Analyst registry for failure clustering. When omitted, the\n   *  `failureClusters` section is left undefined. */\n  analyst?: AnalystRegistry\n  /** Downstream outcome metric per run (e.g. engagement rate, approval\n   *  rate, downstream pass rate). When present, the report includes\n   *  `outcomeCorrelation` + a simple linear reward model fit. */\n  outcomeSignal?: {\n    metric: string\n    valueByRunId: Record<string, number>\n  }\n  /** Multi-rater feedback for inter-rater agreement. Each entry is one\n   *  rater's score for one run. Two or more raters → kappa + disagreement\n   *  triage list. */\n  raterScores?: Array<{ runId: string; rater: string; score: number }>\n  /** Number of histogram bins for distributional summaries. Default 12. */\n  histogramBins?: number\n  /** Decision threshold — the smallest composite lift the caller cares\n   *  about. Used by the recommendations engine to call ship vs hold.\n   *  Default 0.02. */\n  decisionThreshold?: number\n  /** Optional prior-period runs. When set, the report includes\n   *  `priorPeriodComparison` with per-metric Welch-CI deltas and\n   *  recommendations fire on statistically significant regressions.\n   *  The two windows do NOT have to share scenarios — the comparison\n   *  is two-sample unpaired (the substrate's `lift` field uses paired\n   *  bootstrap on shared (experimentId, scenarioId, seed) identities; this is the\n   *  shape for \"this week vs last week\" rather than \"candidate vs\n   *  baseline within a campaign\"). */\n  baselineRuns?: RunRecord[]\n  /** Human-readable label for the baseline window, e.g. \"vs prior 7\n   *  days\", \"vs v3.1 release\". Surfaces in recommendations + UI. */\n  baselineLabel?: string\n}\n\nexport async function analyzeRuns(opts: AnalyzeRunsOptions): Promise<InsightReport> {\n  const runs = opts.runs.map(validateRunRecord)\n  const bins = opts.histogramBins ?? 12\n  const threshold = opts.decisionThreshold ?? 0.02\n  if (!Number.isFinite(threshold)) {\n    throw new Error(`analyzeRuns: decisionThreshold must be finite, got ${threshold}`)\n  }\n  const split = resolveSplit(runs, opts.split ?? 'auto')\n\n  const compositeWithIds = runs\n    .map((r) => ({ runId: r.runId, score: compositeOf(r, split) }))\n    .filter((p) => Number.isFinite(p.score))\n  const composite = distributionOf(\n    compositeWithIds.map((p) => p.score),\n    bins,\n    compositeWithIds,\n  )\n\n  const perDimension = computePerDimension(runs, bins)\n  const { execution, costProvenance: provenance } = summarizeExecution({\n    runs,\n    histogramBins: bins,\n  })\n  const knownCostRuns = runs.filter((run) => run.costProvenance.usd !== null)\n  const costs = knownCostRuns.map((r) => r.costUsd).filter(isFiniteNumber)\n  const costDist = distributionOf(costs, bins)\n  const pareto = paretoChart(knownCostRuns, { split })\n  const degraded: { cost?: string; pareto?: string } = {}\n  if (provenance.uncaptured.n + provenance.lowerBound.n > 0) {\n    degraded.cost = diagnoseCostCoverage(runs, provenance)\n  } else if (costs.length === 0 || costs.every((c) => c === 0)) {\n    degraded.cost = `all ${runs.length} explicitly observed or estimated USD values are $0`\n  }\n  if (pareto.points.length < 2) {\n    degraded.pareto =\n      pareto.points.length === 0\n        ? 'no candidates — Pareto unavailable'\n        : 'single candidate — Pareto is a single point, not a frontier'\n  }\n  const costQuality = {\n    cost: costDist,\n    pareto,\n    provenance,\n    ...(degraded.cost || degraded.pareto ? { degraded } : {}),\n  }\n\n  const judges = computeJudgeInsights(runs)\n\n  const interRater = opts.raterScores ? computeInterRater(opts.raterScores) : undefined\n\n  const lift = computeLift(\n    runs,\n    opts.baselineCandidateId,\n    opts.candidateCandidateId,\n    split,\n    opts.independentUnitByScenarioId,\n  )\n\n  const failureClusters = opts.analyst\n    ? await computeFailureClusters(runs, opts.analyst, split)\n    : undefined\n\n  const failureClasses = computeFailureClasses(runs, split)\n\n  const contamination = opts.canaryScenarios\n    ? computeContamination(runs, opts.canaryScenarios)\n    : undefined\n\n  const outcomeCorrelation = opts.outcomeSignal\n    ? computeOutcomeCorrelation(runs, opts.outcomeSignal, split)\n    : undefined\n\n  const release = buildReleaseScorecard(composite, lift, contamination)\n\n  const priorPeriodComparison = opts.baselineRuns\n    ? computePriorPeriodComparison(runs, opts.baselineRuns, split, opts.baselineLabel)\n    : undefined\n\n  const recommendations = buildRecommendations({\n    composite,\n    judges,\n    interRater,\n    lift,\n    failureClusters,\n    failureClasses,\n    contamination,\n    outcomeCorrelation,\n    priorPeriodComparison,\n    threshold,\n  })\n\n  return {\n    n: runs.length,\n    execution,\n    composite,\n    perDimension,\n    costQuality,\n    judges,\n    interRater,\n    lift,\n    failureClusters,\n    contamination,\n    outcomeCorrelation,\n    release,\n    ...(failureClasses ? { failureClasses } : {}),\n    ...(priorPeriodComparison ? { priorPeriodComparison } : {}),\n    recommendations,\n  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+{"version":3,"file":"analyze-runs-BCSHzqna.js","names":["arithmeticMean","percentile"],"sources":["../src/baseline.ts","../src/contract/quality-insight.ts","../src/contract/comparison-insight.ts","../src/contract/execution-insight.ts","../src/contamination-guard.ts","../src/contract/failure-insight.ts","../src/contract/insight-recommendations.ts","../src/contract/analyze-runs.ts"],"sourcesContent":["/** Detect baseline regressions with Welch inference, effect size and per-side stability. */\n\nimport { interpolatedQuantile } from './math/quantile'\nimport { studentTQuantile } from './math/student-t'\nimport { cohensD } from './statistics/effect-sizes'\nimport { studentTTwoSidedPValue } from './statistics/inference'\n\ninterface MetricSamples {\n  /** Stable metric key (e.g. \"overallScore\", \"firstTokenMs\"). */\n  metric: string\n  /** Whether higher values are better. */\n  higherIsBetter: boolean\n  baseline: number[]\n  candidate: number[]\n}\n\nexport interface MetricVerdict {\n  metric: string\n  baselineMean: number\n  candidateMean: number\n  delta: number\n  /** Null when both samples are constant with unequal means — the standardized effect is unbounded there, not zero. */\n  cohensD: number | null\n  welchT: number\n  welchDf: number\n  welchP: number\n  stable: boolean\n  /** IQR of the combined samples — used as a rough stability indicator. */\n  iqr: number\n  verdict: 'improved' | 'regressed' | 'stable' | 'unstable'\n}\n\nexport interface BaselineReport {\n  metrics: MetricVerdict[]\n  /** True if any critical metric regressed. */\n  hasRegression: boolean\n  /** True if any metric is unstable (too noisy to judge). */\n  hasUnstable: boolean\n}\n\nexport interface BaselineOptions {\n  /** Effect size threshold for meaningful delta (default 0.5 — medium effect). */\n  effectThreshold?: number\n  /** p-value threshold for statistical significance (default 0.05). */\n  alpha?: number\n  /** IQR/mean ratio above which samples are flagged unstable (default 0.30). */\n  unstableCvThreshold?: number\n}\n\nexport type WelchTestStatus = 'ok' | 'insufficient-sample' | 'zero-variance'\n\n/** Independent b − a effects; insufficient counts or zero variance have no confidence interval. */\ninterface WelchTestResultBase {\n  meanA: number\n  meanB: number\n  delta: number\n}\n\nexport type WelchTestResult =\n  | (WelchTestResultBase & {\n      status: 'ok'\n      standardError: number\n      t: number\n      df: number\n      p: number\n      ci95: [number, number]\n      cohensD: number\n    })\n  | (WelchTestResultBase & {\n      status: 'insufficient-sample' | 'zero-variance'\n      standardError: number\n      t: number\n      df: number\n      p: number\n      ci95: null\n      cohensD: null\n    })\n\n/** Promotion requires stable samples, a meaningful effect in the right direction and significant inference. */\nexport function compareToBaseline(\n  samples: MetricSamples[],\n  options: BaselineOptions = {},\n): BaselineReport {\n  const effectThreshold = options.effectThreshold ?? 0.5\n  const alpha = options.alpha ?? 0.05\n  const cvThreshold = options.unstableCvThreshold ?? 0.3\n\n  const metrics: MetricVerdict[] = samples.map((s) => {\n    const comparison = welchsTTest(s.baseline, s.candidate)\n    if (comparison.status === 'insufficient-sample') {\n      throw new Error(`compareToBaseline: need ≥2 samples per side for \"${s.metric}\"`)\n    }\n    const { meanA: bMean, meanB: cMean, delta, cohensD: d, t, df, p } = comparison\n    // Per-side stability keeps a real mean shift distinct from noisy samples.\n    const baselineIqr = iqr(s.baseline)\n    const candidateIqr = iqr(s.candidate)\n    const baselineStable = baselineIqr / Math.max(Math.abs(bMean), 1e-9) <= cvThreshold\n    const candidateStable = candidateIqr / Math.max(Math.abs(cMean), 1e-9) <= cvThreshold\n    const stable = baselineStable && candidateStable\n    const reportedIqr = Math.max(baselineIqr, candidateIqr)\n\n    // Only status 'ok' can promote; null effects cannot fabricate bounded inference.\n    const effectClears = d === null || Math.abs(d) >= effectThreshold\n\n    let verdict: MetricVerdict['verdict']\n    if (!stable) {\n      verdict = 'unstable'\n    } else if (comparison.status === 'ok' && p < alpha && effectClears) {\n      const candidateIsBetter = s.higherIsBetter ? delta > 0 : delta < 0\n      verdict = candidateIsBetter ? 'improved' : 'regressed'\n    } else {\n      verdict = 'stable'\n    }\n\n    return {\n      metric: s.metric,\n      baselineMean: bMean,\n      candidateMean: cMean,\n      delta,\n      cohensD: d,\n      welchT: t,\n      welchDf: df,\n      welchP: p,\n      stable,\n      iqr: reportedIqr,\n      verdict,\n    }\n  })\n\n  return {\n    metrics,\n    hasRegression: metrics.some((m) => m.verdict === 'regressed'),\n    hasUnstable: metrics.some((m) => m.verdict === 'unstable'),\n  }\n}\n\nfunction mean(xs: number[]): number {\n  return xs.length ? xs.reduce((sum, value) => sum + value / xs.length, 0) : Number.NaN\n}\n\n/** Inter-quartile range; 0 when the sample has no spread. */\nexport function iqr(xs: number[]): number {\n  if (xs.length === 0) return 0\n  const sorted = [...xs].sort((a, b) => a - b)\n  return interpolatedQuantile(sorted, 0.75) - interpolatedQuantile(sorted, 0.25)\n}\n\n/** Use Student-t at finite df; unavailable inference is NaN with a null interval and explicit status. */\nexport function welchsTTest(a: number[], b: number[]): WelchTestResult {\n  assertFiniteSample('a', a)\n  assertFiniteSample('b', b)\n  const mA = mean(a)\n  const mB = mean(b)\n  const delta = mB - mA\n  if (\n    (a.length && !Number.isFinite(mA)) ||\n    (b.length && !Number.isFinite(mB)) ||\n    (a.length && b.length && !Number.isFinite(delta))\n  ) {\n    throw new RangeError('welchsTTest: sample arithmetic exceeded finite range')\n  }\n  if (a.length < 2 || b.length < 2) {\n    return {\n      status: 'insufficient-sample',\n      meanA: mA,\n      meanB: mB,\n      delta,\n      standardError: Number.NaN,\n      t: Number.NaN,\n      df: Number.NaN,\n      p: Number.NaN,\n      ci95: null,\n      cohensD: null,\n    }\n  }\n\n  const vA = variance(a, mA)\n  const vB = variance(b, mB)\n  const seSquared = vA / a.length + vB / b.length\n  if (!Number.isFinite(seSquared)) {\n    throw new RangeError('welchsTTest: sample arithmetic exceeded finite range')\n  }\n  const d = cohensD(a, b)\n  if (seSquared === 0) {\n    return {\n      status: 'zero-variance',\n      meanA: mA,\n      meanB: mB,\n      delta,\n      standardError: 0,\n      t: delta === 0 ? 0 : Math.sign(delta) * Number.POSITIVE_INFINITY,\n      df: Number.NaN,\n      p: Number.NaN,\n      ci95: null,\n      cohensD: null,\n    }\n  }\n\n  const standardError = Math.sqrt(seSquared)\n  const t = delta / standardError\n  const fractionA = vA / a.length / seSquared\n  const fractionB = vB / b.length / seSquared\n  const df = 1 / (fractionA ** 2 / (a.length - 1) + fractionB ** 2 / (b.length - 1))\n  const p = studentTTwoSidedPValue(t, df)\n  if (d === null) {\n    throw new Error('welchsTTest: non-zero standard error produced no pooled effect size')\n  }\n  const halfWidth = studentTQuantile(0.975, df) * standardError\n  if (![df, d, halfWidth, delta - halfWidth, delta + halfWidth].every(Number.isFinite)) {\n    throw new RangeError('welchsTTest: sample arithmetic exceeded finite range')\n  }\n  return {\n    status: 'ok',\n    meanA: mA,\n    meanB: mB,\n    delta,\n    standardError,\n    t,\n    df,\n    p,\n    ci95: [delta - halfWidth, delta + halfWidth],\n    cohensD: d,\n  }\n}\n\nfunction variance(xs: number[], m: number): number {\n  return xs.reduce((acc, x) => acc + (x - m) ** 2, 0) / (xs.length - 1)\n}\n\nfunction assertFiniteSample(name: string, sample: readonly number[]): void {\n  const invalid = sample.find((value) => !Number.isFinite(value))\n  if (invalid !== undefined) {\n    throw new RangeError(\n      `welchsTTest: sample ${name} must contain only finite values, got ${invalid}`,\n    )\n  }\n}\n","/** Observed score distributions, judge agreement, and downstream quality correlation. */\n\nimport { continuousAgreement } from '../judge-calibration'\nimport { interpolatedQuantile as percentile } from '../math/quantile'\nimport { observedSplitScore } from '../rollout/reward'\nimport type { RunRecord } from '../run-record'\nimport { pearsonR, spearmanR } from '../statistics'\nimport { mean as arithmeticMean, meanOrZero } from '../statistics/mean'\nimport type {\n  InterRaterInsight,\n  JudgeInsight,\n  OutcomeCorrelationInsight,\n  ScalarDistribution,\n} from './insight-report'\n\nexport function resolveSplit(\n  runs: RunRecord[],\n  pref: 'search' | 'holdout' | 'auto',\n): 'search' | 'holdout' {\n  if (pref !== 'auto') return pref\n  const hasHoldout = runs.some((r) => Number.isFinite(observedSplitScore(r, 'holdout')))\n  return hasHoldout ? 'holdout' : 'search'\n}\n\n/**\n * RAW (`observedSplitScore`): `analyzeRuns` describes what a set of runs\n * reported, and every downstream reader of this composite — distributions,\n * per-candidate summaries, the reward-hacking correlation — needs the ungated\n * number to see an inflated run at all.\n */\nexport function compositeOf(run: RunRecord, split: 'search' | 'holdout'): number {\n  // Split-exact, no cross-split fallthrough: answering \"what did this run\n  // score on the split I am summarising\" with the other split's number\n  // silently mixes populations.\n  const score = observedSplitScore(run, split)\n  return Number.isFinite(score) ? (score as number) : Number.NaN\n}\n\nexport function distributionOf(\n  values: number[],\n  bins: number,\n  withIds?: Array<{ runId: string; score: number }>,\n): ScalarDistribution {\n  if (values.length === 0) {\n    return {\n      n: 0,\n      mean: null,\n      p50: null,\n      p95: null,\n      stddev: null,\n      min: null,\n      max: null,\n      histogram: [],\n    }\n  }\n  const sorted = [...values].sort((a, b) => a - b)\n  const n = sorted.length\n  const mean = arithmeticMean(sorted)\n  const variance = sorted.reduce((s, v) => s + (v - mean) ** 2, 0) / n\n  const stddev = Math.sqrt(variance)\n  const tailRuns = withIds\n    ? [...withIds].sort((a, b) => a.score - b.score).slice(0, Math.min(5, withIds.length))\n    : undefined\n  return {\n    n,\n    mean,\n    p50: percentile(sorted, 0.5),\n    p95: percentile(sorted, 0.95),\n    stddev,\n    min: sorted[0]!,\n    max: sorted[n - 1]!,\n    histogram: histogram(sorted, bins),\n    ...(tailRuns ? { tailRuns } : {}),\n  }\n}\n\n/** Even-width histogram over the value range. Returns inclusive-lo /\n *  exclusive-hi bins (closed on right for the last bin) compatible with\n *  the substrate's `GainDistributionBin` shape. */\nfunction histogram(sorted: number[], bins: number): ScalarDistribution['histogram'] {\n  if (sorted.length === 0 || bins < 1) return []\n  const min = sorted[0]!\n  const max = sorted[sorted.length - 1]!\n  if (min === max) return [{ lo: min, hi: max, count: sorted.length }]\n  const width = (max - min) / bins\n  const out: ScalarDistribution['histogram'] = []\n  for (let i = 0; i < bins; i++) {\n    const lo = min + i * width\n    const hi = i === bins - 1 ? max : lo + width\n    out.push({ lo, hi, count: 0 })\n  }\n  for (const v of sorted) {\n    const idx = Math.min(bins - 1, Math.floor((v - min) / width))\n    out[idx]!.count++\n  }\n  return out\n}\n\nexport function computePerDimension(\n  runs: RunRecord[],\n  bins: number,\n): Record<string, ScalarDistribution> {\n  // JudgeScoresRecord pre-aggregates `perDimMean` (mean across judges per\n  // dimension). We collect those means across runs to produce a per-dim\n  // distribution at the corpus level. Consumers who want per-judge\n  // dimension values reach into `perJudge[judgeId][dim]` themselves.\n  const byDim = new Map<string, number[]>()\n  for (const run of runs) {\n    const scores = run.outcome.judgeScores\n    if (!scores) continue\n    for (const [dim, value] of Object.entries(scores.perDimMean ?? {})) {\n      if (!Number.isFinite(value)) continue\n      const arr = byDim.get(dim) ?? []\n      arr.push(value)\n      byDim.set(dim, arr)\n    }\n  }\n  const out: Record<string, ScalarDistribution> = {}\n  for (const [dim, values] of byDim) out[dim] = distributionOf(values, bins)\n  return out\n}\n\n/** Collect per-dimension values across runs (from outcome.judgeScores.perDimMean). */\nexport function collectPerDimension(runs: RunRecord[]): Record<string, number[]> {\n  const out: Record<string, number[]> = {}\n  for (const r of runs) {\n    const perDim = r.outcome.judgeScores?.perDimMean\n    if (!perDim) continue\n    for (const [dim, value] of Object.entries(perDim)) {\n      if (!Number.isFinite(value)) continue\n      if (!out[dim]) out[dim] = []\n      out[dim].push(value as number)\n    }\n  }\n  return out\n}\n\nexport function computeJudgeInsights(runs: RunRecord[]): Record<string, JudgeInsight> {\n  // Each judge's per-run mean is the average of its per-dimension scores\n  // for that run. We aggregate those means across all runs each judge\n  // scored — giving consumers a \"this judge's typical verdict\" reading.\n  const out: Record<string, JudgeInsight> = {}\n  const byJudge = new Map<string, number[]>()\n  for (const run of runs) {\n    const scores = run.outcome.judgeScores\n    if (!scores?.perJudge) continue\n    for (const [judgeId, dims] of Object.entries(scores.perJudge)) {\n      const dimValues = Object.values(dims).filter(Number.isFinite) as number[]\n      if (dimValues.length === 0) continue\n      const judgeMean = dimValues.reduce((s, v) => s + v, 0) / dimValues.length\n      const arr = byJudge.get(judgeId) ?? []\n      arr.push(judgeMean)\n      byJudge.set(judgeId, arr)\n    }\n  }\n  for (const [judgeId, values] of byJudge) {\n    out[judgeId] = {\n      n: values.length,\n      meanScore: values.reduce((s, v) => s + v, 0) / values.length,\n    }\n  }\n  return out\n}\n\nexport function computeInterRater(\n  ratings: Array<{ runId: string; rater: string; score: number }>,\n): InterRaterInsight | undefined {\n  const byRun = new Map<string, Array<{ rater: string; score: number }>>()\n  for (const r of ratings) {\n    if (!Number.isFinite(r.score)) continue\n    const list = byRun.get(r.runId) ?? []\n    list.push({ rater: r.rater, score: r.score })\n    byRun.set(r.runId, list)\n  }\n  const raters = new Set(ratings.map((r) => r.rater))\n  const jointlyRated: string[] = []\n  for (const [runId, ratersForRun] of byRun) {\n    const seen = new Set(ratersForRun.map((r) => r.rater))\n    let all = true\n    for (const r of raters) if (!seen.has(r)) all = false\n    if (all) jointlyRated.push(runId)\n  }\n  if (raters.size < 2 || jointlyRated.length === 0) return undefined\n\n  const raterList = [...raters].sort()\n  const perPair: Record<string, number> = {}\n  for (let i = 0; i < raterList.length; i++) {\n    for (let j = i + 1; j < raterList.length; j++) {\n      const a = raterList[i]!\n      const b = raterList[j]!\n      const aScores: number[] = []\n      const bScores: number[] = []\n      for (const runId of jointlyRated) {\n        const ratersForRun = byRun.get(runId)!\n        const sa = ratersForRun.find((r) => r.rater === a)?.score\n        const sb = ratersForRun.find((r) => r.rater === b)?.score\n        if (sa !== undefined && sb !== undefined) {\n          aScores.push(sa)\n          bScores.push(sb)\n        }\n      }\n      const agreement = continuousAgreement(\n        aScores.map((score, index) => [score, bScores[index]!]),\n        { bootstrap: 0 },\n      )\n      perPair[`${a}::${b}`] = agreement.weightedKappa\n    }\n  }\n  const matrix = jointlyRated.map((runId) => {\n    const ratingsByRater = new Map(byRun.get(runId)!.map((rating) => [rating.rater, rating.score]))\n    return raterList.map((rater) => ratingsByRater.get(rater)!)\n  })\n  const agreement = continuousAgreement(matrix, { bootstrap: 0 })\n\n  const disagreementCases = jointlyRated\n    .map((runId) => {\n      const ratersForRun = byRun.get(runId)!\n      const scores = ratersForRun.map((r) => r.score)\n      const range = Math.max(...scores) - Math.min(...scores)\n      return { runId, ratings: ratersForRun, range }\n    })\n    .sort((a, b) => b.range - a.range)\n    .slice(0, 20)\n\n  return {\n    raters: raters.size,\n    jointlyRated: jointlyRated.length,\n    kappa: Number.isFinite(agreement.weightedKappa) ? agreement.weightedKappa : 0,\n    icc: agreement.icc,\n    pearson: agreement.pearson,\n    spearman: agreement.spearman,\n    perPair,\n    disagreementCases,\n  }\n}\n\nexport function computeOutcomeCorrelation(\n  runs: RunRecord[],\n  outcome: { metric: string; valueByRunId: Record<string, number> },\n  split: 'search' | 'holdout',\n): OutcomeCorrelationInsight | undefined {\n  const xs: number[] = []\n  const ys: number[] = []\n  for (const run of runs) {\n    const y = outcome.valueByRunId[run.runId]\n    if (y === undefined || !Number.isFinite(y)) continue\n    const x = compositeOf(run, split)\n    if (!Number.isFinite(x)) continue\n    xs.push(x)\n    ys.push(y)\n  }\n  if (xs.length < 3) return undefined\n\n  const p = pearsonR(xs, ys)\n  const s = spearmanR(xs, ys)\n  const meanX = meanOrZero(xs)\n  const meanY = meanOrZero(ys)\n  let num = 0\n  let denom = 0\n  for (let i = 0; i < xs.length; i++) {\n    num += (xs[i]! - meanX) * (ys[i]! - meanY)\n    denom += (xs[i]! - meanX) ** 2\n  }\n  const slope = denom === 0 ? 0 : num / denom\n  const intercept = meanY - slope * meanX\n  const ssTot = ys.reduce((a, y) => a + (y - meanY) ** 2, 0)\n  const ssRes = ys.reduce((a, y, i) => a + (y - (intercept + slope * xs[i]!)) ** 2, 0)\n  const r2 = ssTot === 0 ? 0 : 1 - ssRes / ssTot\n\n  return {\n    metric: outcome.metric,\n    n: xs.length,\n    pearson: p,\n    spearman: s,\n    rewardModel: { intercept, slope, r2 },\n  }\n}\n\nexport function finiteCompositeScores(\n  runs: readonly RunRecord[],\n  split: 'search' | 'holdout',\n): number[] {\n  return runs.map((run) => compositeOf(run, split)).filter(Number.isFinite)\n}\n\nexport function isFiniteNumber(value: unknown): value is number {\n  return typeof value === 'number' && Number.isFinite(value)\n}\n","/** Paired candidate lift and independent prior-period metric comparisons. */\n\nimport { welchsTTest } from '../baseline'\nimport { aggregatePairedHoldout } from '../campaign/gates/statistical-heldout'\nimport { pairRunRecords } from '../paired-arms'\nimport type { RunRecord } from '../run-record'\nimport {\n  BOOTSTRAP_GATE_MIN_N,\n  pairedBootstrap,\n  pairedCohensDz,\n  pairedMde,\n  pairedTTest,\n  requiredPairedSampleSize,\n} from '../statistics'\nimport { meanOrZero } from '../statistics/mean'\nimport type { LiftInsight, MetricDelta, PriorPeriodComparison } from './insight-report'\nimport {\n  collectPerDimension,\n  compositeOf,\n  finiteCompositeScores,\n  isFiniteNumber,\n} from './quality-insight'\n\ntype MetricDirection = 'higher-is-better' | 'lower-is-better'\n\nexport function computePriorPeriodComparison(\n  current: RunRecord[],\n  baseline: RunRecord[],\n  split: 'search' | 'holdout',\n  windowLabel: string | undefined,\n): PriorPeriodComparison | undefined {\n  if (current.length === 0 || baseline.length === 0) return undefined\n\n  const metrics: Record<string, MetricDelta> = {}\n  const directions: Record<string, MetricDirection> = {}\n\n  const compositeCurrent = current\n    .map((r) => compositeOf(r, split))\n    .filter(Number.isFinite) as number[]\n  const compositeBaseline = baseline\n    .map((r) => compositeOf(r, split))\n    .filter(Number.isFinite) as number[]\n  if (compositeCurrent.length > 0 && compositeBaseline.length > 0) {\n    metrics.composite = welchCompare(compositeBaseline, compositeCurrent)\n    directions.composite = 'higher-is-better'\n  }\n\n  const costCurrent = knownCostValues(current)\n  const costBaseline = knownCostValues(baseline)\n  if (costCurrent.length > 0 && costBaseline.length > 0) {\n    metrics.cost = welchCompare(costBaseline, costCurrent)\n    directions.cost = 'lower-is-better'\n  }\n\n  const durCurrent = current.map((r) => r.wallMs).filter(Number.isFinite)\n  const durBaseline = baseline.map((r) => r.wallMs).filter(Number.isFinite)\n  if (durCurrent.length > 0 && durBaseline.length > 0) {\n    metrics.duration = welchCompare(durBaseline, durCurrent)\n    directions.duration = 'lower-is-better'\n  }\n\n  const tokCurrent = current\n    .map((r) => (r.tokenUsage.input ?? 0) + (r.tokenUsage.output ?? 0))\n    .filter(Number.isFinite)\n  const tokBaseline = baseline\n    .map((r) => (r.tokenUsage.input ?? 0) + (r.tokenUsage.output ?? 0))\n    .filter(Number.isFinite)\n  if (tokCurrent.length > 0 && tokBaseline.length > 0) {\n    metrics.tokenUsage = welchCompare(tokBaseline, tokCurrent)\n    directions.tokenUsage = 'lower-is-better'\n  }\n\n  // Per-dimension judge comparisons — only for dimensions present in BOTH\n  // windows. We use perDimMean since per-judge nesting is finicky for\n  // two-sample comparisons across different judge configurations.\n  const dimsCurrent = collectPerDimension(current)\n  const dimsBaseline = collectPerDimension(baseline)\n  for (const dim of Object.keys(dimsCurrent)) {\n    const b = dimsBaseline[dim]\n    const c = dimsCurrent[dim]\n    if (!b || b.length === 0 || !c || c.length === 0) continue\n    metrics[`dim.${dim}`] = welchCompare(b, c)\n    directions[`dim.${dim}`] = 'higher-is-better'\n  }\n\n  const regressedMetrics: string[] = []\n  const improvedMetrics: string[] = []\n  const inconclusiveMetrics: string[] = []\n  for (const [name, delta] of Object.entries(metrics)) {\n    if (delta.status !== 'ok') {\n      inconclusiveMetrics.push(name)\n      continue\n    }\n    if (!delta.significant) continue\n    const dir = directions[name] ?? 'higher-is-better'\n    const better = dir === 'higher-is-better' ? delta.delta > 0 : delta.delta < 0\n    if (better) improvedMetrics.push(name)\n    else regressedMetrics.push(name)\n  }\n\n  return {\n    baselineN: baseline.length,\n    currentN: current.length,\n    ...(windowLabel ? { windowLabel } : {}),\n    metrics,\n    regressedMetrics,\n    improvedMetrics,\n    inconclusiveMetrics,\n  }\n}\n\nfunction knownCostValues(runs: RunRecord[]): number[] {\n  return runs\n    .filter((run) => run.costProvenance.usd !== null)\n    .map((run) => run.costUsd)\n    .filter(isFiniteNumber)\n}\n\n/** Adapt the shared two-sample Welch result to the report contract. */\nfunction welchCompare(baseline: number[], current: number[]): MetricDelta {\n  const result = welchsTTest(baseline, current)\n  const base = {\n    current: result.meanB,\n    baseline: result.meanA,\n    delta: result.delta,\n    baselineN: baseline.length,\n    currentN: current.length,\n  }\n  if (result.status !== 'ok') {\n    return {\n      ...base,\n      status: result.status,\n      ci95: null,\n      pValue: null,\n      cohensD: null,\n      significant: false,\n    }\n  }\n  return {\n    ...base,\n    status: 'ok',\n    ci95: result.ci95,\n    pValue: result.p,\n    cohensD: result.cohensD,\n    significant: result.p < 0.05 && Math.abs(result.cohensD) >= 0.2,\n  }\n}\n\nexport function computeLift(\n  runs: RunRecord[],\n  baselineId: string | undefined,\n  candidateId: string | undefined,\n  split: 'search' | 'holdout',\n  independentUnitByScenarioId?: ReadonlyMap<string, string>,\n): LiftInsight | undefined {\n  let bId = baselineId\n  let cId = candidateId\n  if (!bId || !cId) {\n    // Auto-detect: when exactly two distinct candidateIds appear, treat the\n    // lower-mean side as baseline.\n    const ids = [...new Set(runs.map((r) => r.candidateId))]\n    if (ids.length !== 2) return undefined\n    const [idA, idB] = ids as [string, string]\n    const scoresA = finiteCompositeScores(\n      runs.filter((run) => run.candidateId === idA),\n      split,\n    )\n    const scoresB = finiteCompositeScores(\n      runs.filter((run) => run.candidateId === idB),\n      split,\n    )\n    if (scoresA.length === 0 || scoresB.length === 0) return undefined\n    const meanA = meanOrZero(scoresA)\n    const meanB = meanOrZero(scoresB)\n    bId = meanA <= meanB ? idA : idB\n    cId = meanA <= meanB ? idB : idA\n  }\n\n  const baseline = runs.filter((r) => r.candidateId === bId)\n  const candidate = runs.filter((r) => r.candidateId === cId)\n  if (baseline.length === 0 || candidate.length === 0) return undefined\n\n  const scoredBaseline = baseline.filter((run) => Number.isFinite(compositeOf(run, split)))\n  const scoredCandidate = candidate.filter((run) => Number.isFinite(compositeOf(run, split)))\n  const pairing = pairRunRecords(scoredBaseline, scoredCandidate)\n  let pairedBaseline = pairing.pairs.map((pair) => compositeOf(pair.baseline, split))\n  let pairedCandidate = pairing.pairs.map((pair) => compositeOf(pair.treatment, split))\n  if (pairedBaseline.length === 0) return undefined\n  const grouped = independentUnitByScenarioId\n    ? aggregatePairedHoldout(\n        {\n          before: pairedBaseline,\n          after: pairedCandidate,\n          // Pairing is already fixed by experiment, scenario, and seed.\n          // The ordinal labels each matched observation for the shared reducer.\n          cellIds: pairing.pairs.map((pair, index) => `${pair.pairKey}:${index}`),\n        },\n        new Map(\n          pairing.pairs.map((pair) => [\n            pair.pairKey,\n            independentUnitByScenarioId.get(pair.baseline.scenarioId)!,\n          ]),\n        ),\n      )\n    : undefined\n  if (grouped) {\n    pairedBaseline = grouped.before\n    pairedCandidate = grouped.after\n  }\n  const reverseInferredArms =\n    grouped !== undefined &&\n    (!baselineId || !candidateId) &&\n    meanOrZero(pairedBaseline) > meanOrZero(pairedCandidate)\n  if (reverseInferredArms) [pairedBaseline, pairedCandidate] = [pairedCandidate, pairedBaseline]\n\n  const baselineMean = meanOrZero(pairedBaseline)\n  const candidateMean = meanOrZero(pairedCandidate)\n  const delta = candidateMean - baselineMean\n\n  const bootstrap = pairedBootstrap(pairedBaseline, pairedCandidate, {\n    confidence: 0.95,\n    resamples: 2000,\n    statistic: 'mean',\n  })\n  const tTest = pairedTTest(pairedBaseline, pairedCandidate)\n  const d = pairedCohensDz(pairedBaseline, pairedCandidate)\n  const mde = pairedMde({ nPaired: pairedBaseline.length, power: 0.8, alpha: 0.05 })\n  const requiredN =\n    d === null || d === 0\n      ? null\n      : requiredPairedSampleSize({\n          effect: Math.abs(d),\n          power: 0.8,\n          alpha: 0.05,\n        })\n\n  return {\n    baselineMean,\n    candidateMean,\n    delta,\n    ci95: [bootstrap.low, bootstrap.high],\n    pValue: tTest.p,\n    n: pairedBaseline.length,\n    ...(grouped ? { pairedRunN: pairing.pairs.length, independentUnitIds: grouped.unitIds } : {}),\n    minimumRequired: BOOTSTRAP_GATE_MIN_N,\n    decisionEligible: bootstrap.gateEligible,\n    unpairedBaseline: (reverseInferredArms ? pairing.unpairedTreatment : pairing.unpairedBaseline)\n      .length,\n    unpairedCandidate: (reverseInferredArms ? pairing.unpairedBaseline : pairing.unpairedTreatment)\n      .length,\n    cohensD: d,\n    mde,\n    requiredN,\n  }\n}\n","/** Runtime usage, terminal outcomes, execution errors, and cost capture facts. */\n\nimport {\n  type RunRecord,\n  type RunTerminalOutcome,\n  type RunTokenUsage,\n  validateRunRecord,\n} from '../run-record'\nimport type { CostProvenanceSummary, ExecutionInsight, TokenUsageInsight } from './insight-report'\nimport { distributionOf } from './quality-insight'\n\nexport interface SummarizeExecutionOptions {\n  runs: RunRecord[]\n  histogramBins?: number\n}\n\nexport interface ExecutionReport {\n  execution: ExecutionInsight\n  costProvenance: CostProvenanceSummary\n}\n\n/** Summarize runtime facts without interpreting task quality or promotion readiness. */\nexport function summarizeExecution(opts: SummarizeExecutionOptions): ExecutionReport {\n  const runs = opts.runs.map(validateRunRecord)\n  const bins = opts.histogramBins ?? 12\n  return {\n    execution: computeExecutionInsight(runs, bins),\n    costProvenance: summarizeCostProvenance(runs),\n  }\n}\n\nfunction computeExecutionInsight(runs: RunRecord[], bins: number): ExecutionInsight {\n  const aggregateRows = runs.flatMap((run) => {\n    const usage = aggregateTokenUsage(run)\n    return usage ? [{ usage, costUsd: finiteRaw(run, 'aggregate_cost_usd') }] : []\n  })\n  const aggregateCosts = aggregateRows.flatMap((row) =>\n    row.costUsd !== undefined ? [row.costUsd] : [],\n  )\n  const modelCounts = new Map<string, number>()\n  let executionErrorRuns = 0\n  let executionErrorEvents = 0\n  let errorReportingRuns = 0\n  let errorSpanEvents = 0\n  let errorSpanReportingRuns = 0\n  const terminalOutcomes: Record<RunTerminalOutcome, number> = {\n    succeeded: 0,\n    failed: 0,\n    cancelled: 0,\n    incomplete: 0,\n    unknown: 0,\n  }\n  const errorsByTerminalOutcome: ExecutionInsight['executionErrors']['byTerminalOutcome'] = {\n    succeeded: { withErrors: 0, withoutErrors: 0, unreported: 0 },\n    failed: { withErrors: 0, withoutErrors: 0, unreported: 0 },\n    cancelled: { withErrors: 0, withoutErrors: 0, unreported: 0 },\n    incomplete: { withErrors: 0, withoutErrors: 0, unreported: 0 },\n    unknown: { withErrors: 0, withoutErrors: 0, unreported: 0 },\n  }\n  let modelCallRuns = 0\n  let modelCallEvents = 0\n  let modelCallReportingRuns = 0\n\n  for (const run of runs) {\n    modelCounts.set(run.model, (modelCounts.get(run.model) ?? 0) + 1)\n    const terminalOutcome = run.terminalOutcome\n    terminalOutcomes[terminalOutcome] += 1\n    const modelCalls = nonNegativeCountRaw(run, 'llm_span_count')\n    if (modelCalls !== undefined) {\n      modelCallEvents += modelCalls\n      modelCallReportingRuns += 1\n    }\n    const usage = run.tokenUsage\n    if (\n      (modelCalls ?? 0) > 0 ||\n      usage.input > 0 ||\n      usage.output > 0 ||\n      (usage.cached ?? 0) > 0 ||\n      (usage.cacheWrite ?? 0) > 0\n    ) {\n      modelCallRuns += 1\n    }\n    const errorEvents = reportedExecutionErrorEvents(run)\n    if (errorEvents !== undefined) {\n      executionErrorEvents += errorEvents\n      errorReportingRuns += 1\n      if (errorEvents > 0) {\n        executionErrorRuns += 1\n        errorsByTerminalOutcome[terminalOutcome].withErrors += 1\n      } else errorsByTerminalOutcome[terminalOutcome].withoutErrors += 1\n    } else errorsByTerminalOutcome[terminalOutcome].unreported += 1\n    const reportedErrorSpans = nonNegativeCountRaw(run, 'error_span_count')\n    if (reportedErrorSpans !== undefined) {\n      errorSpanEvents += reportedErrorSpans\n      errorSpanReportingRuns += 1\n    }\n  }\n\n  return {\n    durationMs: distributionOf(\n      runs.map((run) => run.wallMs),\n      bins,\n    ),\n    queueMs: distributionOf(\n      runs.filter((run) => run.queueMs !== undefined).map((run) => run.queueMs!),\n      bins,\n    ),\n    tokenUsage: summarizeTokenUsage(\n      runs.map((run) => run.tokenUsage),\n      bins,\n    ),\n    aggregateUsage: {\n      runs: aggregateRows.length,\n      tokenUsage: summarizeTokenUsage(\n        aggregateRows.map((row) => row.usage),\n        bins,\n      ),\n      costUsd: distributionOf(aggregateCosts, bins),\n      totalCostUsd: aggregateCosts.reduce((total, value) => total + value, 0),\n    },\n    models: [...modelCounts.entries()]\n      .map(([model, count]) => ({ model, runs: count }))\n      .sort((left, right) => right.runs - left.runs || left.model.localeCompare(right.model)),\n    modelCalls: {\n      runs: modelCallRuns,\n      events: modelCallEvents,\n      reportingRuns: modelCallReportingRuns,\n    },\n    executionErrors: {\n      runs: executionErrorRuns,\n      fraction: errorReportingRuns > 0 ? executionErrorRuns / errorReportingRuns : null,\n      events: executionErrorEvents,\n      reportingRuns: errorReportingRuns,\n      errorSpanEvents,\n      errorSpanReportingRuns,\n      byTerminalOutcome: errorsByTerminalOutcome,\n    },\n    terminalOutcomes,\n  }\n}\n\nfunction reportedExecutionErrorEvents(run: RunRecord): number | undefined {\n  return nonNegativeCountRaw(run, 'execution_error_count')\n}\n\nfunction nonNegativeCountRaw(run: RunRecord, key: string): number | undefined {\n  const value = finiteRaw(run, key)\n  return value !== undefined && Number.isInteger(value) && value >= 0 ? value : undefined\n}\n\nfunction summarizeTokenUsage(usages: RunTokenUsage[], bins: number): TokenUsageInsight {\n  const reasoning = usages.flatMap((usage) =>\n    usage.reasoning !== undefined ? [usage.reasoning] : [],\n  )\n  const cached = usages.flatMap((usage) => (usage.cached !== undefined ? [usage.cached] : []))\n  const cacheWrite = usages.flatMap((usage) =>\n    usage.cacheWrite !== undefined ? [usage.cacheWrite] : [],\n  )\n  return {\n    input: distributionOf(\n      usages.map((usage) => usage.input),\n      bins,\n    ),\n    output: distributionOf(\n      usages.map((usage) => usage.output),\n      bins,\n    ),\n    reasoning: distributionOf(reasoning, bins),\n    cached: distributionOf(cached, bins),\n    cacheWrite: distributionOf(cacheWrite, bins),\n    totals: {\n      input: usages.reduce((total, usage) => total + usage.input, 0),\n      output: usages.reduce((total, usage) => total + usage.output, 0),\n      reasoning: reasoning.reduce((total, value) => total + value, 0),\n      cached: cached.reduce((total, value) => total + value, 0),\n      cacheWrite: cacheWrite.reduce((total, value) => total + value, 0),\n    },\n  }\n}\n\nfunction aggregateTokenUsage(run: RunRecord): RunTokenUsage | undefined {\n  const input = finiteRaw(run, 'aggregate_prompt_tokens')\n  const output = finiteRaw(run, 'aggregate_completion_tokens')\n  const reasoning = finiteRaw(run, 'aggregate_reasoning_tokens')\n  const cached = finiteRaw(run, 'aggregate_cached_tokens')\n  const cacheWrite = finiteRaw(run, 'aggregate_cache_write_tokens')\n  if (\n    input === undefined &&\n    output === undefined &&\n    reasoning === undefined &&\n    cached === undefined &&\n    cacheWrite === undefined\n  )\n    return undefined\n  return {\n    input: input ?? 0,\n    output: output ?? 0,\n    ...(reasoning !== undefined ? { reasoning } : {}),\n    ...(cached !== undefined ? { cached } : {}),\n    ...(cacheWrite !== undefined ? { cacheWrite } : {}),\n  }\n}\n\nfunction finiteRaw(run: RunRecord, key: string): number | undefined {\n  const value = run.outcome.raw[key]\n  return typeof value === 'number' && Number.isFinite(value) && value >= 0 ? value : undefined\n}\n\nfunction summarizeCostProvenance(runs: RunRecord[]): CostProvenanceSummary {\n  const summary: CostProvenanceSummary = {\n    observed: { n: 0, totalUsd: 0 },\n    estimated: { n: 0, totalUsd: 0 },\n    lowerBound: { n: 0, floorUsd: 0 },\n    uncaptured: { n: 0 },\n    knownFraction: 0,\n  }\n  for (const run of runs) {\n    const cost = run.costProvenance\n    if (cost.kind === 'uncaptured') {\n      summary.uncaptured.n += 1\n    } else if (cost.kind === 'lower-bound') {\n      summary.lowerBound.n += 1\n      summary.lowerBound.floorUsd += cost.knownLowerBoundUsd\n    } else {\n      summary[cost.kind].n += 1\n      summary[cost.kind].totalUsd += cost.usd\n    }\n  }\n  const known = summary.observed.n + summary.estimated.n\n  summary.knownFraction = runs.length > 0 ? known / runs.length : 0\n  return summary\n}\n\nexport function diagnoseCostCoverage(runs: RunRecord[], provenance: CostProvenanceSummary): string {\n  const unknown = provenance.uncaptured.n + provenance.lowerBound.n\n  const known = provenance.observed.n + provenance.estimated.n\n  const floor =\n    provenance.lowerBound.n > 0\n      ? ` (${provenance.lowerBound.n} of them cost at least $${provenance.lowerBound.floorUsd.toFixed(6)} together)`\n      : ''\n  if (unknown === runs.length) {\n    return `USD cost total unknown for all ${runs.length} runs${floor} — no observed or estimated USD values; token and wall-time metrics remain available.`\n  }\n  return `USD cost total unknown for ${unknown}/${runs.length} runs${floor}; excluded those rows from cost statistics (${known}/${runs.length} retained: ${provenance.observed.n} observed, ${provenance.estimated.n} estimated).`\n}\n","/**\n * ContaminationGuard — ensures held-out scenarios don't leak into\n * training/prompt paths, and flags model memorization.\n *\n * Three probes:\n *   1. `checkCanaries(output, scenario)` — if the scenario carries a\n *      canary token, it MUST NOT appear in the agent's output.\n *      Canaries are strings that are statistically impossible to\n *      reconstruct from the scenario description alone — so if they\n *      echo back, the model memorized them.\n *   2. `canaryLeakView(store)` — cross-corpus view of every run whose\n *      output contained a canary, with the offending scenario + run.\n *   3. `HoldoutAuditor` — wraps a Dataset and emits a structured error\n *      on any code path that reads holdout scenarios but doesn't flag\n *      `purpose: 'evaluation'`. Keeps engineers honest.\n */\n\nimport type { DatasetScenario } from './dataset'\nimport { llmSpans } from './trace/query'\nimport type { TraceStore } from './trace/store'\n\nexport interface CanaryLeak {\n  scenarioId: string\n  canary: string\n  runId?: string\n  evidence: string\n}\n\nexport function checkCanaries(output: string, scenarios: DatasetScenario[]): CanaryLeak[] {\n  const leaks: CanaryLeak[] = []\n  for (const s of scenarios) {\n    if (!s.canary) continue\n    if (output.includes(s.canary)) {\n      leaks.push({ scenarioId: s.id, canary: s.canary, evidence: excerpt(output, s.canary) })\n    }\n  }\n  return leaks\n}\n\n/**\n * Behavioral canary: tests the AGENT, not the eval grep.\n *\n *   - `forbiddenPattern` PRESENT in output ⇒ AGENT EMITTED BAD CONTENT ⇒ LEAK.\n *   - `forbiddenPattern` ABSENT from output ⇒ AGENT HELD THE LINE       ⇒ PASS.\n *\n * Use when running known-bad-prompt scenarios against the agent under\n * test and you want to know if the agent misbehaved. The classical\n * {@link checkCanaries} / {@link import('./canary').runCanaries | runCanaries}\n * test whether the eval check fires when the bad output is forced\n * into the eval flow — different question, different answer.\n *\n * Pattern resolution order (first match wins):\n *   1. `scenario.forbiddenPattern` — if it parses as `/body/flags`,\n *      treated as a regex; otherwise a literal substring.\n *   2. `scenario.canary` — literal substring fallback so the helper\n *      works on existing scenario fixtures.\n *\n * Returns `null` when nothing forbidden was found OR the scenario\n * declared no pattern.\n */\nexport function checkBehavioralCanary(\n  output: string,\n  scenario: DatasetScenario,\n): CanaryLeak | null {\n  const pattern = scenario.forbiddenPattern ?? scenario.canary\n  if (!pattern) return null\n  const hit = matchForbidden(output, pattern)\n  if (!hit) return null\n  return {\n    scenarioId: scenario.id,\n    canary: pattern,\n    evidence: excerpt(output, hit),\n  }\n}\n\n/**\n * Resolve a forbidden-pattern string to the matched substring inside\n * `output`. `/body/flags` notation is interpreted as a regex; anything\n * else is a literal substring.\n */\nfunction matchForbidden(output: string, pattern: string): string | null {\n  const re = tryParseRegex(pattern)\n  if (re) {\n    const m = output.match(re)\n    return m && m[0].length > 0 ? m[0] : null\n  }\n  return output.includes(pattern) ? pattern : null\n}\n\nfunction tryParseRegex(pattern: string): RegExp | null {\n  if (pattern.length < 2 || pattern[0] !== '/') return null\n  const last = pattern.lastIndexOf('/')\n  if (last <= 0) return null\n  const body = pattern.slice(1, last)\n  const flags = pattern.slice(last + 1)\n  if (!/^[gimsuy]*$/.test(flags)) return null\n  try {\n    return new RegExp(body, flags)\n  } catch {\n    return null\n  }\n}\n\n/**\n * Scan the LLM-output history in a corpus; returns every case where a\n * canary from a known scenario appeared in agent output. Pass the full\n * set of scenarios whose canaries you care about (typically the whole\n * held-out slice).\n */\nexport async function canaryLeakView(\n  store: TraceStore,\n  scenarios: DatasetScenario[],\n): Promise<CanaryLeak[]> {\n  const targets = scenarios.filter((s) => !!s.canary)\n  if (targets.length === 0) return []\n  const spans = await llmSpans(store)\n  const leaks: CanaryLeak[] = []\n  for (const span of spans) {\n    const output = span.output ?? ''\n    for (const s of targets) {\n      if (s.canary && output.includes(s.canary)) {\n        leaks.push({\n          scenarioId: s.id,\n          canary: s.canary,\n          runId: span.runId,\n          evidence: excerpt(output, s.canary),\n        })\n      }\n    }\n  }\n  return leaks\n}\n\nexport class HoldoutAuditor {\n  private scenarios: DatasetScenario[]\n  private accessLog: Array<{ scenarioId: string; purpose: string; at: number }> = []\n\n  constructor(scenarios: DatasetScenario[]) {\n    this.scenarios = scenarios\n  }\n\n  /** Retrieve a holdout scenario for a declared purpose. Non-'evaluation' throws. */\n  get(scenarioId: string, purpose: 'evaluation' | 'debugging'): DatasetScenario {\n    if (purpose !== 'evaluation' && purpose !== 'debugging') {\n      throw new Error(\n        `HoldoutAuditor.get: purpose must be 'evaluation' or 'debugging', got ${purpose}`,\n      )\n    }\n    const s = this.scenarios.find((x) => x.id === scenarioId)\n    if (!s) throw new Error(`holdout scenario \"${scenarioId}\" not found`)\n    this.accessLog.push({ scenarioId, purpose, at: Date.now() })\n    return s\n  }\n\n  getAccessLog(): ReadonlyArray<{ scenarioId: string; purpose: string; at: number }> {\n    return this.accessLog\n  }\n}\n\nfunction excerpt(source: string, needle: string): string {\n  const at = source.indexOf(needle)\n  if (at < 0) return ''\n  const start = Math.max(0, at - 30)\n  const end = Math.min(source.length, at + needle.length + 30)\n  return (start > 0 ? '…' : '') + source.slice(start, end) + (end < source.length ? '…' : '')\n}\n","/** Task failure classes, analyst clusters, and canary contamination evidence. */\n\nimport type { AnalystRegistry } from '../analyst/registry'\nimport type { AnalystFinding } from '../analyst/types'\nimport { checkCanaries } from '../contamination-guard'\nimport type { DatasetScenario } from '../dataset'\nimport type { RunRecord } from '../run-record'\nimport type { FailureClass } from '../trace/schema'\nimport type { FailureClassTally, FailureClusterInsight, InsightReport } from './insight-report'\nimport { compositeOf } from './quality-insight'\n\n/**\n * Model-free task-failure tally.\n *\n * Explicit non-success classes are task-failure evidence.\n * A low task score without a class is counted as `unknown`.\n */\nexport function computeFailureClasses(\n  runs: RunRecord[],\n  split: 'search' | 'holdout',\n): FailureClassTally[] | undefined {\n  const counts = new Map<FailureClass, number>()\n  for (const r of runs) {\n    if (!isTaskFailure(r, split)) continue\n    const key =\n      r.failureClass !== undefined && r.failureClass !== 'success' ? r.failureClass : 'unknown'\n    counts.set(key, (counts.get(key) ?? 0) + 1)\n  }\n  if (counts.size === 0) return undefined\n  const n = runs.length\n  return [...counts.entries()]\n    .map(([failureClass, count]) => ({\n      failureClass,\n      count,\n      share: n > 0 ? count / n : 0,\n    }))\n    .sort((a, b) => b.count - a.count || a.failureClass.localeCompare(b.failureClass))\n}\n\nexport async function computeFailureClusters(\n  runs: RunRecord[],\n  analyst: AnalystRegistry,\n  split: 'search' | 'holdout',\n): Promise<FailureClusterInsight | undefined> {\n  const failed = runs.filter((run) => isTaskFailure(run, split))\n  if (failed.length === 0) return { clusters: [], totalFailures: 0 }\n\n  const clusters = new Map<string, { exemplars: string[]; runs: number }>()\n  const recordCluster = (key: string, runId: string) => {\n    const cluster = clusters.get(key) ?? { exemplars: [], runs: 0 }\n    cluster.runs += 1\n    if (cluster.exemplars.length < 5 && !cluster.exemplars.includes(runId)) {\n      cluster.exemplars.push(runId)\n    }\n    clusters.set(key, cluster)\n  }\n  for (const run of failed) {\n    try {\n      // AnalystRunInputs routes by field name: run-record analysts read\n      // `runRecord`. Any other shape makes every analyst skip with\n      // \"missing input\" and the clusters come back silently empty.\n      const result = await analyst.run(run.runId, { runRecord: run })\n      // One run can produce several findings in one cluster; count it once.\n      const keys = new Set(\n        result.findings.map(\n          (finding: AnalystFinding) => finding.area || finding.analyst_id || 'unclassified',\n        ),\n      )\n      for (const key of keys) recordCluster(key, run.runId)\n    } catch {\n      recordCluster('analyst-error', run.runId)\n    }\n  }\n  const clusterList = [...clusters.entries()].map(([id, c]) => ({\n    id,\n    name: id,\n    share: c.runs / failed.length,\n    exemplars: c.exemplars,\n  }))\n  clusterList.sort((a, b) => b.share - a.share)\n  return { clusters: clusterList, totalFailures: failed.length }\n}\n\nfunction isTaskFailure(run: RunRecord, split: 'search' | 'holdout'): boolean {\n  if (run.failureClass !== undefined && run.failureClass !== 'success') return true\n  const score = compositeOf(run, split)\n  return Number.isFinite(score) && score < 0.5\n}\n\nexport function computeContamination(\n  runs: RunRecord[],\n  canaries: DatasetScenario[],\n): InsightReport['contamination'] {\n  let leaks = 0\n  const details: Array<{ runId: string; canary: string; matched: string }> = []\n  for (const run of runs) {\n    const output = stringifyOutput(run)\n    if (!output) continue\n    const leaksHere = checkCanaries(output, canaries)\n    for (const leak of leaksHere) {\n      leaks++\n      details.push({ runId: run.runId, canary: leak.canary, matched: leak.evidence })\n    }\n  }\n  return { leaks, holdoutAuditPassed: leaks === 0, details }\n}\n\nfunction stringifyOutput(run: RunRecord): string | undefined {\n  // RunRecord doesn't fix where \"the agent's output\" lives — different\n  // consumers stash it differently. We probe the common shapes: the\n  // outcome.raw map (numeric only by design — unlikely to contain text),\n  // and any string-valued fields tucked under metadata via type casting.\n  // Consumers with bespoke shapes pass canaryScenarios only when they\n  // know their runs carry a stringifiable surface.\n  const metadata = (run as unknown as { metadata?: Record<string, unknown> }).metadata\n  if (typeof metadata?.output === 'string') return metadata.output\n  if (typeof metadata?.text === 'string') return metadata.text\n  return undefined\n}\n","/** Release readiness and recommended actions from an insight report's evidence. */\n\nimport type {\n  FailureClassTally,\n  FailureClusterInsight,\n  InsightReport,\n  InterRaterInsight,\n  JudgeInsight,\n  LiftInsight,\n  OutcomeCorrelationInsight,\n  PriorPeriodComparison,\n  Recommendation,\n  ScalarDistribution,\n} from './insight-report'\n\ninterface RecommendationContext {\n  composite: ScalarDistribution\n  judges: Record<string, JudgeInsight>\n  interRater?: InterRaterInsight\n  lift?: LiftInsight\n  failureClusters?: FailureClusterInsight\n  failureClasses?: FailureClassTally[]\n  contamination?: InsightReport['contamination']\n  outcomeCorrelation?: OutcomeCorrelationInsight\n  priorPeriodComparison?: PriorPeriodComparison\n  threshold: number\n}\n\n/** A bootstrap interval with no spread: every resample landed on the same\n *  value, so the interval carries no information about how far the point\n *  estimate could be wrong and cannot support a directional claim. */\nfunction zeroWidth(ci: readonly [number, number]): boolean {\n  return !Number.isFinite(ci[0]) || !Number.isFinite(ci[1]) || ci[0] === ci[1]\n}\n\nexport function buildReleaseScorecard(\n  composite: ScalarDistribution,\n  lift: LiftInsight | undefined,\n  contamination: InsightReport['contamination'],\n): InsightReport['release'] {\n  // Synthesise a minimal scorecard from the rolled-up signal. The\n  // substrate's `evaluateReleaseConfidence` primitive consumes a richer\n  // input shape that callers can produce by wiring SLO definitions; the\n  // shape here is the contract `selfImprove`/`analyzeRuns` consumers\n  // receive automatically. They can call `evaluateReleaseConfidence`\n  // directly when they want SLO-based axis evaluation.\n  const axes: InsightReport['release']['axes'] = []\n  const liftPass =\n    lift === undefined\n      ? ('not_evaluated' as const)\n      : !lift.decisionEligible\n        ? ('not_evaluated' as const)\n        : lift.ci95[0] > 0 && !zeroWidth(lift.ci95)\n          ? ('pass' as const)\n          : lift.delta > 0\n            ? ('warn' as const)\n            : ('fail' as const)\n  axes.push({\n    name: 'quality-lift',\n    status: liftPass,\n    detail: lift\n      ? `delta=${lift.delta.toFixed(3)}, CI95=[${lift.ci95[0].toFixed(3)}, ${lift.ci95[1].toFixed(3)}], n=${lift.n}${lift.decisionEligible ? '' : ` (descriptive only; ${lift.minimumRequired} required)`}`\n      : 'no baseline/candidate pair available',\n  })\n  const contamPass =\n    contamination === undefined\n      ? ('not_evaluated' as const)\n      : contamination.leaks === 0\n        ? ('pass' as const)\n        : ('fail' as const)\n  axes.push({\n    name: 'contamination',\n    status: contamPass,\n    detail: contamination ? `${contamination.leaks} canary leak(s)` : 'no canaries supplied',\n  })\n  axes.push(\n    composite.n === 0\n      ? {\n          name: 'composite-distribution',\n          status: 'not_evaluated',\n          detail: 'no task-quality scores available',\n        }\n      : {\n          name: 'composite-distribution',\n          status:\n            composite.mean !== null && composite.mean >= 0.5\n              ? 'pass'\n              : composite.mean !== null && composite.mean >= 0.3\n                ? 'warn'\n                : 'fail',\n          detail:\n            composite.mean === null || composite.p50 === null || composite.p95 === null\n              ? 'task-quality distribution is internally incomplete'\n              : `mean=${composite.mean.toFixed(3)}, p50=${composite.p50.toFixed(3)}, p95=${composite.p95.toFixed(3)} over n=${composite.n}`,\n        },\n  )\n  const status = axes.some((a) => a.status === 'fail')\n    ? 'fail'\n    : axes.some((a) => a.status === 'warn' || a.status === 'not_evaluated')\n      ? 'warn'\n      : 'pass'\n  return {\n    status,\n    axes,\n    issues: [],\n  }\n}\n\nexport function buildRecommendations(ctx: RecommendationContext): Recommendation[] {\n  const out: Recommendation[] = []\n\n  // Prior-period regressions — highest customer-impact signal when present.\n  // \"Did my last change help?\" with a falsifiable answer.\n  if (ctx.priorPeriodComparison) {\n    const ppc = ctx.priorPeriodComparison\n    const label = ppc.windowLabel ?? 'baseline period'\n    for (const name of ppc.regressedMetrics) {\n      const d = ppc.metrics[name]\n      if (d?.status !== 'ok') continue\n      out.push({\n        priority: 'critical',\n        kind: 'investigate',\n        title: `${name} regressed from ${d.baseline.toFixed(3)} → ${d.current.toFixed(3)} vs ${label}`,\n        detail: `Welch CI95 = [${d.ci95[0].toFixed(3)}, ${d.ci95[1].toFixed(3)}], p=${d.pValue.toFixed(4)}, Cohen's d=${d.cohensD.toFixed(2)} (n_current=${d.currentN}, n_baseline=${d.baselineN}). The regression is statistically significant at p<0.05 with at-least-small effect size.`,\n        evidencePath: `priorPeriodComparison.metrics.${name}`,\n      })\n    }\n    for (const name of ppc.improvedMetrics) {\n      const d = ppc.metrics[name]\n      if (d?.status !== 'ok') continue\n      out.push({\n        priority: 'low',\n        kind: 'ship',\n        title: `${name} improved from ${d.baseline.toFixed(3)} → ${d.current.toFixed(3)} vs ${label}`,\n        detail: `Welch CI95 = [${d.ci95[0].toFixed(3)}, ${d.ci95[1].toFixed(3)}], p=${d.pValue.toFixed(4)}, Cohen's d=${d.cohensD.toFixed(2)} (n_current=${d.currentN}, n_baseline=${d.baselineN}). Statistically significant improvement worth flagging.`,\n        evidencePath: `priorPeriodComparison.metrics.${name}`,\n      })\n    }\n    for (const name of ppc.inconclusiveMetrics) {\n      const d = ppc.metrics[name]\n      if (!d || d.status === 'ok' || d.delta === 0) continue\n      const reason =\n        d.status === 'zero-variance'\n          ? 'both periods have zero observed variance'\n          : 'one or both periods have fewer than two observations'\n      out.push({\n        priority: 'high',\n        kind: 'investigate',\n        title: `${name} changed from ${d.baseline.toFixed(3)} → ${d.current.toFixed(3)} vs ${label}; inference unavailable`,\n        detail: `Observed delta ${d.delta.toFixed(3)} across n_current=${d.currentN} and n_baseline=${d.baselineN}, but ${reason}. The report does not fabricate a p-value, confidence interval, or effect size; inspect independence and data capture before acting.`,\n        evidencePath: `priorPeriodComparison.metrics.${name}`,\n      })\n    }\n  }\n\n  // Composite-distribution branch. Fires when the overall quality signal is\n  // poor regardless of lift / contamination / clusters — the customer needs\n  // to know they have a problem AND which specific runs to inspect.\n  if (\n    ctx.composite.n > 0 &&\n    ctx.composite.mean !== null &&\n    ctx.composite.p50 !== null &&\n    ctx.composite.p95 !== null\n  ) {\n    if (ctx.composite.mean < 0.3) {\n      const tail = ctx.composite.tailRuns ?? []\n      const names = tail\n        .slice(0, 5)\n        .map((t) => `${t.runId}=${t.score.toFixed(3)}`)\n        .join(', ')\n      out.push({\n        priority: 'critical',\n        kind: 'investigate',\n        title: `Composite mean ${ctx.composite.mean.toFixed(3)} is below the 0.3 floor — the agent is broken on this corpus`,\n        detail:\n          tail.length > 0\n            ? `Worst ${tail.length} run${tail.length === 1 ? '' : 's'} to inspect first: ${names}. Histogram p50=${ctx.composite.p50.toFixed(3)}, p95=${ctx.composite.p95.toFixed(3)}.`\n            : `Histogram p50=${ctx.composite.p50.toFixed(3)}, p95=${ctx.composite.p95.toFixed(3)}.`,\n        evidencePath: 'composite.tailRuns',\n      })\n    } else if (ctx.composite.mean < 0.5) {\n      const tail = ctx.composite.tailRuns ?? []\n      const names = tail\n        .slice(0, 3)\n        .map((t) => `${t.runId}=${t.score.toFixed(3)}`)\n        .join(', ')\n      out.push({\n        priority: 'high',\n        kind: 'investigate',\n        title: `Composite mean ${ctx.composite.mean.toFixed(3)} is below 0.5 — investigate the lower tail before claiming the agent is healthy`,\n        detail:\n          tail.length > 0\n            ? `Worst ${tail.length} run${tail.length === 1 ? '' : 's'}: ${names}. Histogram p50=${ctx.composite.p50.toFixed(3)}, p95=${ctx.composite.p95.toFixed(3)}.`\n            : `Histogram p50=${ctx.composite.p50.toFixed(3)}, p95=${ctx.composite.p95.toFixed(3)}.`,\n        evidencePath: 'composite.tailRuns',\n      })\n    }\n  }\n\n  // A healthy-looking mean can hide a group of failed tasks sharing one\n  // producer-reported cause. This path does not require an analyst.\n  if (ctx.failureClasses && ctx.failureClasses.length > 0) {\n    const top = ctx.failureClasses[0]!\n    if (top.count >= 3 && top.share >= 0.15) {\n      out.push({\n        priority: top.share >= 0.25 ? 'high' : 'medium',\n        kind: 'investigate',\n        title: `'${top.failureClass}' is the dominant failure class — ${top.count} runs (${(top.share * 100).toFixed(0)}% of the corpus)`,\n        detail: `The mean composite can look acceptable while one failure class dominates the lower tail. ${top.count} of ${ctx.composite.n} runs failed with '${top.failureClass}'${ctx.failureClasses.length > 1 ? ` (next: '${ctx.failureClasses[1]!.failureClass}' ×${ctx.failureClasses[1]!.count})` : ''}. Fix this cause first.`,\n        evidencePath: 'failureClasses',\n      })\n    }\n  }\n\n  // Missing-judges branch. The report can't surface per-dimension or\n  // calibration signal when `outcome.judgeScores` is empty across the\n  // corpus. Tell the customer how to enrich.\n  if (Object.keys(ctx.judges).length === 0 && ctx.composite.n > 0) {\n    out.push({\n      priority: 'medium',\n      kind: 'expand-corpus',\n      title: 'No judge scores recorded — per-dimension + calibration insights unavailable',\n      detail:\n        'Records have no `outcome.judgeScores`. To unlock perDimension, judges, and calibration, attach a Judge run during your eval pass and populate `outcome.judgeScores.perJudge[judgeName][dimension] = score`. See `docs/insight-report.md` for the expected shape.',\n      evidencePath: 'judges',\n    })\n  }\n\n  if (ctx.lift) {\n    if (!ctx.lift.decisionEligible) {\n      out.push({\n        priority: 'high',\n        kind: 'expand-corpus',\n        title: `Inconclusive — ${ctx.lift.n} paired runs; ${ctx.lift.minimumRequired} required`,\n        detail: `The bootstrap interval is descriptive below ${ctx.lift.minimumRequired} paired observations and cannot support a ship decision.`,\n        evidencePath: 'lift',\n      })\n    } else {\n      const pairedEffect =\n        ctx.lift.cohensD === null ? 'undefined (zero delta variance)' : ctx.lift.cohensD.toFixed(2)\n      const pairedP =\n        ctx.lift.pValue === null ? 'undefined (zero delta variance)' : ctx.lift.pValue.toFixed(4)\n      const requiredRuns =\n        ctx.lift.requiredN === null ? 'not estimable' : `~${ctx.lift.requiredN} paired runs`\n      // A ZERO-WIDTH interval never reads as \"ship\": n identical paired deltas\n      // make every resample identical, so `[g, g]` clears any threshold below g\n      // and `[0, 0]` clears any negative `decisionThreshold`, on no spread at\n      // all. It falls through to the inconclusive/hold arms, which is where a\n      // sample carrying no information about its own error belongs.\n      const decisive = !zeroWidth(ctx.lift.ci95) && ctx.lift.ci95[0] > ctx.threshold\n      const inconclusive = ctx.lift.ci95[0] <= ctx.threshold && ctx.lift.ci95[1] > ctx.threshold\n      if (decisive) {\n        out.push({\n          priority: 'critical',\n          kind: 'ship',\n          title: `Ship — lift ${ctx.lift.delta.toFixed(3)} (95% CI ${ctx.lift.ci95[0].toFixed(3)}..${ctx.lift.ci95[1].toFixed(3)})`,\n          detail: `Holdout lift exceeds threshold ${ctx.threshold} with 95% bootstrap confidence (n=${ctx.lift.n}, p=${pairedP}, paired d=${pairedEffect}).`,\n          evidencePath: 'lift',\n        })\n      } else if (inconclusive) {\n        out.push({\n          priority: 'high',\n          kind: 'expand-corpus',\n          title: `Inconclusive — required sample is ${requiredRuns} (have ${ctx.lift.n}) at current effect size`,\n          detail: `CI straddles threshold. Current MDE at 80% power is ${ctx.lift.mde.toFixed(3)}; observed delta is ${ctx.lift.delta.toFixed(3)}.`,\n          evidencePath: 'lift',\n        })\n      } else {\n        out.push({\n          priority: 'critical',\n          kind: 'hold',\n          title: `Hold — lift CI lower bound ${ctx.lift.ci95[0].toFixed(3)} is at or below threshold ${ctx.threshold}`,\n          detail: `Bootstrap CI provides no statistical evidence the candidate is better. Consider tightening the mutation or expanding the holdout.`,\n          evidencePath: 'lift',\n        })\n      }\n    }\n  }\n\n  if (ctx.contamination && ctx.contamination.leaks > 0) {\n    out.push({\n      priority: 'critical',\n      kind: 'fix',\n      title: `${ctx.contamination.leaks} canary leak${ctx.contamination.leaks === 1 ? '' : 's'} detected`,\n      detail: `Holdout integrity is compromised. The lift number is unreliable until you investigate.`,\n      evidencePath: 'contamination',\n    })\n  }\n\n  if (ctx.interRater && ctx.interRater.kappa < 0.5) {\n    out.push({\n      priority: 'high',\n      kind: 'recalibrate',\n      title: `Inter-rater weighted kappa ${ctx.interRater.kappa.toFixed(2)} is below 0.5`,\n      detail:\n        'Raters disagree on what good looks like. Review the largest disagreement cases and refine the rubric before automating these decisions.',\n      evidencePath: 'interRater',\n    })\n  }\n\n  if (ctx.failureClusters && ctx.failureClusters.clusters.length > 0) {\n    const top = ctx.failureClusters.clusters[0]!\n    out.push({\n      priority: 'high',\n      kind: 'investigate',\n      title: `Top failure cluster: ${top.name} (${(top.share * 100).toFixed(0)}% of failures)`,\n      detail: `${ctx.failureClusters.totalFailures} runs failed. The largest cluster groups ${top.exemplars.length} exemplars under '${top.name}'.`,\n      evidencePath: 'failureClusters.clusters[0]',\n    })\n  }\n\n  if (ctx.outcomeCorrelation && Math.abs(ctx.outcomeCorrelation.spearman) < 0.3) {\n    out.push({\n      priority: 'medium',\n      kind: 'recalibrate',\n      title: `Judge scores decoupled from ${ctx.outcomeCorrelation.metric} (Spearman ρ=${ctx.outcomeCorrelation.spearman.toFixed(2)})`,\n      detail: `Your judges score what they were trained to score, but it isn't predicting downstream ${ctx.outcomeCorrelation.metric}. Consider retraining the judge against ${ctx.outcomeCorrelation.metric} as the gold signal.`,\n      evidencePath: 'outcomeCorrelation',\n    })\n  }\n\n  return out\n}\n","/**\n * # `analyzeRuns()` — turn a set of agent runs into an actionable decision packet.\n *\n * Wires the substrate's statistical, calibration, clustering, Pareto, and\n * release-confidence primitives into one `InsightReport`. Two top-level\n * entry points use this function:\n *\n *   - `selfImprove()` calls it on the campaign output to attach a packet\n *     to every run.\n *   - Consumers with observed `RunRecord[]` (production traces, gold\n *     corpora, approve/reject tables) call it directly via `analyzeRuns()`\n *     for analysis without a closed loop.\n *\n * Every section is opt-in based on what the input data supports — the\n * function never invents signal. If runs carry no judge scores, `judges`\n * is empty. If there's no baseline/candidate split, `lift` is undefined.\n * If no `analyst` is wired, `failureClusters` is undefined.\n *\n * The `recommendations` array is the human-readable layer; everything\n * else is the evidence backing each recommendation.\n */\n\nimport type { AnalystRegistry } from '../analyst/registry'\nimport type { DatasetScenario } from '../dataset'\nimport { type RunRecord, validateRunRecord } from '../run-record'\nimport { paretoChart } from '../summary-report'\nimport { computeLift, computePriorPeriodComparison } from './comparison-insight'\nimport { diagnoseCostCoverage, summarizeExecution } from './execution-insight'\nimport {\n  computeContamination,\n  computeFailureClasses,\n  computeFailureClusters,\n} from './failure-insight'\nimport { buildRecommendations, buildReleaseScorecard } from './insight-recommendations'\nimport type { InsightReport } from './insight-report'\nimport {\n  compositeOf,\n  computeInterRater,\n  computeJudgeInsights,\n  computeOutcomeCorrelation,\n  computePerDimension,\n  distributionOf,\n  isFiniteNumber,\n  resolveSplit,\n} from './quality-insight'\n\nexport type { ParetoFigureSpec } from '../summary-report'\nexport type { ExecutionReport, SummarizeExecutionOptions } from './execution-insight'\nexport { summarizeExecution } from './execution-insight'\n\nexport interface AnalyzeRunsOptions {\n  /** The runs to analyze. */\n  runs: RunRecord[]\n  /** Which split to score against when reading composite from RunOutcome.\n   *  Default: holdout when ANY run has a `holdoutScore`, else search. */\n  split?: 'search' | 'holdout' | 'auto'\n  /** Pairwise analysis configuration. When both `baselineCandidateId` and\n   *  `candidateCandidateId` are present, lift is computed on paired\n   *  (experimentId, scenarioId, seed) identities shared between the two sides.\n   *  Unmatched rows remain visible in the lift result. */\n  baselineCandidateId?: string\n  candidateCandidateId?: string\n  /** Average matched run scores within these units before estimating lift.\n   *  Raw run distributions and unmatched-run counts remain unchanged. */\n  independentUnitByScenarioId?: ReadonlyMap<string, string>\n  /** Canary scenarios — checked against every run's raw output for\n   *  holdout contamination. */\n  canaryScenarios?: DatasetScenario[]\n  /** Analyst registry for failure clustering. When omitted, the\n   *  `failureClusters` section is left undefined. */\n  analyst?: AnalystRegistry\n  /** Downstream outcome metric per run (e.g. engagement rate, approval\n   *  rate, downstream pass rate). When present, the report includes\n   *  `outcomeCorrelation` + a simple linear reward model fit. */\n  outcomeSignal?: {\n    metric: string\n    valueByRunId: Record<string, number>\n  }\n  /** Multi-rater feedback for inter-rater agreement. Each entry is one\n   *  rater's score for one run. Two or more raters → kappa + disagreement\n   *  triage list. */\n  raterScores?: Array<{ runId: string; rater: string; score: number }>\n  /** Number of histogram bins for distributional summaries. Default 12. */\n  histogramBins?: number\n  /** Decision threshold — the smallest composite lift the caller cares\n   *  about. Used by the recommendations engine to call ship vs hold.\n   *  Default 0.02. */\n  decisionThreshold?: number\n  /** Optional prior-period runs. When set, the report includes\n   *  `priorPeriodComparison` with per-metric Welch-CI deltas and\n   *  recommendations fire on statistically significant regressions.\n   *  The two windows do NOT have to share scenarios — the comparison\n   *  is two-sample unpaired (the substrate's `lift` field uses paired\n   *  bootstrap on shared (experimentId, scenarioId, seed) identities; this is the\n   *  shape for \"this week vs last week\" rather than \"candidate vs\n   *  baseline within a campaign\"). */\n  baselineRuns?: RunRecord[]\n  /** Human-readable label for the baseline window, e.g. \"vs prior 7\n   *  days\", \"vs v3.1 release\". Surfaces in recommendations + UI. */\n  baselineLabel?: string\n}\n\nexport async function analyzeRuns(opts: AnalyzeRunsOptions): Promise<InsightReport> {\n  const runs = opts.runs.map(validateRunRecord)\n  const bins = opts.histogramBins ?? 12\n  const threshold = opts.decisionThreshold ?? 0.02\n  if (!Number.isFinite(threshold)) {\n    throw new Error(`analyzeRuns: decisionThreshold must be finite, got ${threshold}`)\n  }\n  const split = resolveSplit(runs, opts.split ?? 'auto')\n\n  const compositeWithIds = runs\n    .map((r) => ({ runId: r.runId, score: compositeOf(r, split) }))\n    .filter((p) => Number.isFinite(p.score))\n  const composite = distributionOf(\n    compositeWithIds.map((p) => p.score),\n    bins,\n    compositeWithIds,\n  )\n\n  const perDimension = computePerDimension(runs, bins)\n  const { execution, costProvenance: provenance } = summarizeExecution({\n    runs,\n    histogramBins: bins,\n  })\n  const knownCostRuns = runs.filter((run) => run.costProvenance.usd !== null)\n  const costs = knownCostRuns.map((r) => r.costUsd).filter(isFiniteNumber)\n  const costDist = distributionOf(costs, bins)\n  const pareto = paretoChart(knownCostRuns, { split })\n  const degraded: { cost?: string; pareto?: string } = {}\n  if (provenance.uncaptured.n + provenance.lowerBound.n > 0) {\n    degraded.cost = diagnoseCostCoverage(runs, provenance)\n  } else if (costs.length === 0 || costs.every((c) => c === 0)) {\n    degraded.cost = `all ${runs.length} explicitly observed or estimated USD values are $0`\n  }\n  if (pareto.points.length < 2) {\n    degraded.pareto =\n      pareto.points.length === 0\n        ? 'no candidates — Pareto unavailable'\n        : 'single candidate — Pareto is a single point, not a frontier'\n  }\n  const costQuality = {\n    cost: costDist,\n    pareto,\n    provenance,\n    ...(degraded.cost || degraded.pareto ? { degraded } : {}),\n  }\n\n  const judges = computeJudgeInsights(runs)\n\n  const interRater = opts.raterScores ? computeInterRater(opts.raterScores) : undefined\n\n  const lift = computeLift(\n    runs,\n    opts.baselineCandidateId,\n    opts.candidateCandidateId,\n    split,\n    opts.independentUnitByScenarioId,\n  )\n\n  const failureClusters = opts.analyst\n    ? await computeFailureClusters(runs, opts.analyst, split)\n    : undefined\n\n  const failureClasses = computeFailureClasses(runs, split)\n\n  const contamination = opts.canaryScenarios\n    ? computeContamination(runs, opts.canaryScenarios)\n    : undefined\n\n  const outcomeCorrelation = opts.outcomeSignal\n    ? computeOutcomeCorrelation(runs, opts.outcomeSignal, split)\n    : undefined\n\n  const release = buildReleaseScorecard(composite, lift, contamination)\n\n  const priorPeriodComparison = opts.baselineRuns\n    ? computePriorPeriodComparison(runs, opts.baselineRuns, split, opts.baselineLabel)\n    : undefined\n\n  const recommendations = buildRecommendations({\n    composite,\n    judges,\n    interRater,\n    lift,\n    failureClusters,\n    failureClasses,\n    contamination,\n    outcomeCorrelation,\n    priorPeriodComparison,\n    threshold,\n  })\n\n  return {\n    n: runs.length,\n    execution,\n    composite,\n    perDimension,\n    costQuality,\n    judges,\n    interRater,\n    lift,\n    failureClusters,\n    contamination,\n    outcomeCorrelation,\n    release,\n    ...(failureClasses ? { failureClasses } : {}),\n    ...(priorPeriodComparison ? { priorPeriodComparison } : {}),\n    recommendations,\n  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package/dist/{analyze-runs-DYYe18Gw.d.ts → analyze-runs-DbHQHvDC.d.ts}

@@ -1,9 +1,9 @@
 import { o as FailureClass } from "./schema-CkIvnmLU.js";
-import { a as RunRecord, u as RunTerminalOutcome } from "./run-record-D2BFMPGl.js";
+import { a as RunRecord, u as RunTerminalOutcome } from "./run-record-pBlhZizT.js";
 import { Ht as ContinuousAgreement } from "./index-DNXFzSpc.js";
 import { r as DatasetScenario } from "./dataset-DThC1S6G.js";
-import { f as ParetoFigureSpec, l as GainDistributionBin } from "./summary-report-DyZquTaH.js";
-import { t as AnalystRegistry } from "./registry-BAcEbzKm.js";
+import { f as ParetoFigureSpec, l as GainDistributionBin } from "./summary-report-DsiORzPc.js";
+import { t as AnalystRegistry } from "./registry-BnenKvxM.js";
 interface InsightReport {
   /** Number of runs analyzed. */
   n: number;
@@ -480,4 +480,4 @@ interface AnalyzeRunsOptions {
 }
 declare function analyzeRuns(opts: AnalyzeRunsOptions): Promise<InsightReport>;
 export { ReleaseSummary as _, summarizeExecution as a, ExecutionInsight as c, InsightReport as d, InterRaterInsight as f, Recommendation as g, OutcomeCorrelationInsight as h, SummarizeExecutionOptions as i, FailureClassTally as l, LiftInsight as m, analyzeRuns as n, CostProvenanceSummary as o, JudgeInsight as p, ExecutionReport as r, ExecutionErrorOutcomeCell as s, AnalyzeRunsOptions as t, FailureClusterInsight as u, ScalarDistribution as v, TokenUsageInsight as y };
-//# sourceMappingURL=analyze-runs-DYYe18Gw.d.ts.map
+//# sourceMappingURL=analyze-runs-DbHQHvDC.d.ts.map

package/dist/{analyze-runs-DYYe18Gw.d.ts.map → analyze-runs-DbHQHvDC.d.ts.map}

@@ -1 +1 @@
-{"version":3,"file":"analyze-runs-DYYe18Gw.d.ts","names":[],"sources":["../src/contract/insight-report.ts","../src/contract/execution-insight.ts","../src/contract/analyze-runs.ts"],"mappings":";;;;;;UAqCiB;;EAEf;;;;EAKA,WAAW;;EAGX,WAAW;;;EAIX,cAAc,eAAe;;EAG7B;IACE,MAAM;IACN,QAAQ;;;;;IAKR,aAAa;;;;;IAKb;MAAa;MAAe;;;;;;EAM9B,QAAQ,eAAe;;;;EAKvB,aAAa;;;;EAKb,OAAO;;;EAIP,kBAAkB;;;EAIlB,gBAAgB;;;;;EAMhB,qBAAqB;;;;;EAMrB,SAAS;;;;;;EAOT,wBAAwB;;;;EAKxB,iBAAiB;;;EAIjB,iBAAiB;;UAGF;EACf;IAAY;IAAW;;EACvB;IAAa;IAAW;;;;EAGxB;IAAc;IAAW;;EACzB;IAAc;;EACd;;UAGe;;EAEf,YAAY;;EAEZ,SAAS;;;EAGT,YAAY;;;EAGZ;IACE;IACA,YAAY;IACZ,SAAS;IACT;;;EAGF,QAAQ;IAAQ;IAAe;;;;;EAI/B;IACE;IACA;IACA;;;;;EAKF;IACE;;;IAGA;;IAEA;;IAEA;;IAEA;;IAEA;;;;;IAKA,mBAAmB,OAAO,oBAAoB;;;;EAIhD;IACE;IACA;IACA;IACA;IACA;;;UAIa;;EAEf;;EAEA;;EAEA;;UAGe;EACf,OAAO;EACP,QAAQ;EACR,WAAW;EACX,QAAQ;EACR,YAAY;EACZ;IACE;IACA;IACA;IACA;IACA;;;;UAOa;;EAEf;;EAEA;;EAEA;;EAEA;;EAEA;;EAEA;;EAEA;;EAEA,WAAW;;;;;EAKX,WAAW;IAAQ;IAAe;;;UAGnB;;EAEf;;EAEA;;;EAGA,cAAc;;;EAGd;;;EAGA;;;EAGA;;UAGe;;EAEf;;EAEA;;EAEA;;EAEA;;EAEA;;EAEA;;EAEA,SAAS;;EAET,mBAAmB;IACjB;IACA,SAAS;MAAQ;MAAe;;IAChC;;;UAIa;EACf;EACA;;EAEA;;EAEA;;;EAGA;;EAEA;;EAEA;;EAEA;;EAEA;;;;;;;;;;;EAWA;;EAEA;;EAEA;;EAEA;;EAEA;;EAEA;;UAGe;;EAEf,UAAU;IACR;IACA;;IAEA;;IAEA;;IAEA;;EAEF;;;;;UAMe;;EAEf,cAAc;;EAEd;;EAEA;;UAGe;;EAEf;;;EAGA;EACA,UAAU;IAAQ;IAAe;IAAgB;;;UAGlC;;;EAGf;;EAEA;;EAEA;;EAEA;;EAEA;IACE;IACA;IACA;;;UAIa;;;EAGf;EACA,MAAM;IACJ;IACA;IACA;;;;EAIF;;UAGQ;;EAER;;EAEA;;;;EAIA;;EAEA;EACA;;KAGU,eACP;EACC;;EAEA;;EAEA;;EAEA;;EAEA;MAED;EACC;;EAEA;EACA;EACA;EACA;;UAGW;;EAEf;EACA;;EAEA;;;;EAIA,SAAS,eAAe;;;EAGxB;;EAEA;;EAEA;;UAGe;EACf;EACA;EACA;EACA;;EAEA;;UCzbe;EACf,MAAM;EACN;;UAGe;EACf,WAAW;EACX,gBAAgB;;;iBAIF,mBAAmB,MAAM,4BAA4B;UC4BpD;;EAEf,MAAM;;;EAGN;;;;;EAKA;EACA;;;EAGA,8BAA8B;;;EAG9B,kBAAkB;;;EAGlB,UAAU;;;;EAIV;IACE;IACA,cAAc;;;;;EAKhB,cAAc;IAAQ;IAAe;IAAe;;;EAEpD;;;;EAIA;;;;;;;;;EASA,eAAe;;;EAGf;;iBAGoB,YAAY,MAAM,qBAAqB,QAAQ"}
+{"version":3,"file":"analyze-runs-DbHQHvDC.d.ts","names":[],"sources":["../src/contract/insight-report.ts","../src/contract/execution-insight.ts","../src/contract/analyze-runs.ts"],"mappings":";;;;;;UAqCiB;;EAEf;;;;EAKA,WAAW;;EAGX,WAAW;;;EAIX,cAAc,eAAe;;EAG7B;IACE,MAAM;IACN,QAAQ;;;;;IAKR,aAAa;;;;;IAKb;MAAa;MAAe;;;;;;EAM9B,QAAQ,eAAe;;;;EAKvB,aAAa;;;;EAKb,OAAO;;;EAIP,kBAAkB;;;EAIlB,gBAAgB;;;;;EAMhB,qBAAqB;;;;;EAMrB,SAAS;;;;;;EAOT,wBAAwB;;;;EAKxB,iBAAiB;;;EAIjB,iBAAiB;;UAGF;EACf;IAAY;IAAW;;EACvB;IAAa;IAAW;;;;EAGxB;IAAc;IAAW;;EACzB;IAAc;;EACd;;UAGe;;EAEf,YAAY;;EAEZ,SAAS;;;EAGT,YAAY;;;EAGZ;IACE;IACA,YAAY;IACZ,SAAS;IACT;;;EAGF,QAAQ;IAAQ;IAAe;;;;;EAI/B;IACE;IACA;IACA;;;;;EAKF;IACE;;;IAGA;;IAEA;;IAEA;;IAEA;;IAEA;;;;;IAKA,mBAAmB,OAAO,oBAAoB;;;;EAIhD;IACE;IACA;IACA;IACA;IACA;;;UAIa;;EAEf;;EAEA;;EAEA;;UAGe;EACf,OAAO;EACP,QAAQ;EACR,WAAW;EACX,QAAQ;EACR,YAAY;EACZ;IACE;IACA;IACA;IACA;IACA;;;;UAOa;;EAEf;;EAEA;;EAEA;;EAEA;;EAEA;;EAEA;;EAEA;;EAEA,WAAW;;;;;EAKX,WAAW;IAAQ;IAAe;;;UAGnB;;EAEf;;EAEA;;;EAGA,cAAc;;;EAGd;;;EAGA;;;EAGA;;UAGe;;EAEf;;EAEA;;EAEA;;EAEA;;EAEA;;EAEA;;EAEA,SAAS;;EAET,mBAAmB;IACjB;IACA,SAAS;MAAQ;MAAe;;IAChC;;;UAIa;EACf;EACA;;EAEA;;EAEA;;;EAGA;;EAEA;;EAEA;;EAEA;;EAEA;;;;;;;;;;;EAWA;;EAEA;;EAEA;;EAEA;;EAEA;;EAEA;;UAGe;;EAEf,UAAU;IACR;IACA;;IAEA;;IAEA;;IAEA;;EAEF;;;;;UAMe;;EAEf,cAAc;;EAEd;;EAEA;;UAGe;;EAEf;;;EAGA;EACA,UAAU;IAAQ;IAAe;IAAgB;;;UAGlC;;;EAGf;;EAEA;;EAEA;;EAEA;;EAEA;IACE;IACA;IACA;;;UAIa;;;EAGf;EACA,MAAM;IACJ;IACA;IACA;;;;EAIF;;UAGQ;;EAER;;EAEA;;;;EAIA;;EAEA;EACA;;KAGU,eACP;EACC;;EAEA;;EAEA;;EAEA;;EAEA;MAED;EACC;;EAEA;EACA;EACA;EACA;;UAGW;;EAEf;EACA;;EAEA;;;;EAIA,SAAS,eAAe;;;EAGxB;;EAEA;;EAEA;;UAGe;EACf;EACA;EACA;EACA;;EAEA;;UCzbe;EACf,MAAM;EACN;;UAGe;EACf,WAAW;EACX,gBAAgB;;;iBAIF,mBAAmB,MAAM,4BAA4B;UC4BpD;;EAEf,MAAM;;;EAGN;;;;;EAKA;EACA;;;EAGA,8BAA8B;;;EAG9B,kBAAkB;;;EAGlB,UAAU;;;;EAIV;IACE;IACA,cAAc;;;;;EAKhB,cAAc;IAAQ;IAAe;IAAe;;;EAEpD;;;;EAIA;;;;;;;;;EASA,eAAe;;;EAGf;;iBAGoB,YAAY,MAAM,qBAAqB,QAAQ"}

package/dist/app-grade/index.d.ts

@@ -1,9 +1,9 @@
 import { m as CustomTokenPricing, t as CostLedger } from "../cost-ledger-Czro9wmo.js";
-import "../index-7tWvC0aW.js";
+import "../index-DZ_aqB7v.js";
 import { O as ChatClient, j as ChatTransport } from "../cluster-Cd0MRbr9.js";
 import { d as SystemOneRequest, g as SystemOneState, s as SystemOneQuestions } from "../systemone-protocol-C4t7JH4Y.js";
-import "../systemone-DVk-Crtu.js";
-import { a as SystemOneReviewReport, r as SystemOneReviewCheck, t as PreparedSystemOneReview } from "../systemone-review-CToBl1oa.js";
+import "../systemone-B93onE_a.js";
+import { a as SystemOneReviewReport, r as SystemOneReviewCheck, t as PreparedSystemOneReview } from "../systemone-review-BIggseLt.js";
 import { IncomingHttpHeaders, OutgoingHttpHeaders } from "node:http";
 import { Browser, BrowserContext, Locator, Page } from "playwright";
 /**

package/dist/{benchmark-command-CoNndRCk.js → benchmark-command-DkUpd9Q6.js}

@@ -1861,7 +1861,7 @@ Object.freeze([
 	"package.json",
 	"pnpm-lock.yaml"
 ]);
-const ANALYST_BENCHMARK_DEPENDENCY_LOCK_SHA256 = "5168b25401e307b8b6d6cd305bcc7d3fcfe5619a9977f54ba33e7eba9a899a48";
+const ANALYST_BENCHMARK_DEPENDENCY_LOCK_SHA256 = "e2d8beb075fcb4c4ec41d103b4b1a8c677ee0f5253097197868208cf94387cf0";
 const ANALYST_BENCHMARK_EVIDENCE_DEPENDENCY_LOCK_SHA256 = "1e03f2daed356d60316aabefb407ec1e437ac94d408d61eea4ae096e9c6fbb5b";
 const ANALYST_BENCHMARK_EVIDENCE_IMPLEMENTATION_SHA256 = "4dba263b6256a30d56c7fdb2d992d3a953c0035d731f359b704db806f68f75ac";
 const ANALYST_BENCHMARK_IMPLEMENTATION_FILES = Object.freeze([
@@ -6855,4 +6855,4 @@ function shellQuote(value) {
 }
 export { agentRxBenchmarkCase as A, ANALYST_BENCHMARK_COST_LEDGER_FILE as C, AGENT_RX_UPSTREAM_REVISION as D, ANALYST_BENCHMARK_OBSERVATIONS_FILE as E, runAnalystBenchmark as F, traceStoreEvidenceResolver as I, normalizeAgentRxCategory as M, externalId as N, codeTraceBenchCase as O, positiveStep as P, ANALYST_BENCHMARK_IMPLEMENTATION_FILES as S, ANALYST_BENCHMARK_MANIFEST_FILE as T, readAnalystBenchmarkArtifact as _, runInlineAnalystDefinition as a, ANALYST_BENCHMARK_EVIDENCE_DEPENDENCY_LOCK_SHA256 as b, publicRlmAnalystDefinition as c, publicDirectAnalystDefinition as d, runChunkedAnalystDefinition as f, expandCodeTraceFailureBlocks as g, analystDefinitionProtocolSha256 as h, primeCodeTraceAnalystDefinition as i, agentRxPredictionsToFindings as j, codeTracerPredictionsToFindings as k, runReplVariableAnalystDefinition as l, analystDefinitionAsymmetries as m, createPrimeBenchmarkRunner as n, loadPublicBenchmarkRows as o, AnalystExpressivenessError as p, primeAnalystProtocolSha256 as r, createPublicBenchmarkRlmRunner as s, runAnalystBenchmarkCommand as t, createPublicBenchmarkDirectRunner as u, CODE_TRACE_BENCH_ANALYST_PROMPT as v, ANALYST_BENCHMARK_LOCAL_RECEIPT_FILE as w, ANALYST_BENCHMARK_EVIDENCE_IMPLEMENTATION_SHA256 as x, publicBenchmarkProtocolSha256 as y };
 
-//# sourceMappingURL=benchmark-command-CoNndRCk.js.map
+//# sourceMappingURL=benchmark-command-DkUpd9Q6.js.map