npm - @tangle-network/agent-eval - Versions diffs - 0.93.0 → 0.94.0 - Mend

@tangle-network/agent-eval 0.93.0 → 0.94.0

This diff represents the content of publicly available package versions that have been released to one of the supported registries. The information contained in this diff is provided for informational purposes only and reflects changes between package versions as they appear in their respective public registries.

Files changed (121) hide show

package/dist/traces.js CHANGED Viewed

@@ -28,7 +28,7 @@ import {
   scoreTraceInsightReadiness,
   tokenizeDomainWords,
   traceAnalystOnRunComplete
-} from "./chunk-QG2OVF2D.js";
+} from "./chunk-CTBHKLEU.js";
 import {
   DEFAULT_REDACTION_RULES,
   REDACTION_VERSION,
@@ -44,7 +44,7 @@ import {
   runFailureClass,
   runsForScenario,
   toolSpans
-} from "./chunk-47X6LRCE.js";
+} from "./chunk-UFSG7ACU.js";
 import {
   FAILURE_CLASSES,
   TRACE_SCHEMA_VERSION,
@@ -59,7 +59,7 @@ import {
   TRACE_ANALYST_ACTOR_DESCRIPTION_VERSION,
   TRACE_ANALYST_SUBAGENT_DESCRIPTION,
   analyzeTraces
-} from "./chunk-UHMJT4T7.js";
+} from "./chunk-TBDR6PAI.js";
 import {
   DEFAULT_TRACE_ANALYST_BUDGETS,
   OtlpFileTraceStore,
@@ -78,7 +78,7 @@ import {
   readOtlpStatus,
   stringField,
   traceAnalystFunctionGroup
-} from "./chunk-QAY5UIJO.js";
+} from "./chunk-QMUEXQJS.js";
 import {
   RunIntegrityError,
   assertRunCaptured,

package/dist/{trajectory-GEdXJCL5.d.ts → trajectory-2TkpSEVh.d.ts} RENAMED Viewed

@@ -1,5 +1,5 @@
 import { S as Span, a as TraceEvent } from './schema-m0gsnbt3.js';
-import { T as TraceStore } from './store-CKUAgsJz.js';
+import { T as TraceStore } from './store-BcFXE6LG.js';
 /**
  * Trajectory — ordered, structured view over a run's spans.

package/dist/{types-Croy5h7V.d.ts → types-C7DGg5ex.d.ts} RENAMED Viewed

@@ -135,6 +135,8 @@ interface RouteMap {
 interface ProductClientConfig {
     baseUrl: string;
     routes: RouteMap;
+    /** Per-request timeout in ms before the request is aborted. Default 30s. */
+    timeoutMs?: number;
 }
 interface ScenarioFile {
     id: string;

package/dist/{types-2VVIL04s.d.ts → types-Ce17tDlG.d.ts} RENAMED Viewed

@@ -1,7 +1,7 @@
 import { R as RunRecord } from './run-record-e7vj1uZQ.js';
 import { T as TraceAnalysisStore } from './store-C1YxJDEK.js';
-import { a as JudgeInput } from './types-Croy5h7V.js';
-import { b as LlmCallRequest, c as LlmCallResult } from './llm-client-BeEcAokY.js';
+import { a as JudgeInput } from './types-C7DGg5ex.js';
+import { b as LlmCallRequest, c as LlmCallResult } from './llm-client-Bj7g0rqu.js';
 /**
  * ChatClient — the single LLM abstraction analysts call.

package/dist/wire/index.d.ts CHANGED Viewed

@@ -1,12 +1,12 @@
-import { F as FeedbackTrajectoryStore } from '../feedback-trajectory-D9OVLrg9.js';
-import { T as TraceStore } from '../store-CKUAgsJz.js';
+import { F as FeedbackTrajectoryStore } from '../feedback-trajectory-BxY0cKfs.js';
+import { T as TraceStore } from '../store-BcFXE6LG.js';
 import { z } from 'zod';
 import { OpenAPIObject } from 'openapi3-ts/oas31';
 import * as hono_types from 'hono/types';
 import { ServerType } from '@hono/node-server';
 import { Hono } from 'hono';
-import '../control-runtime-DuFBYg7A.js';
-import '../emitter-DEZwY14K.js';
+import '../control-runtime-Acf9CGhw.js';
+import '../emitter-C2rqGH_l.js';
 import '../schema-m0gsnbt3.js';
 import '../dataset-BbGkaN2I.js';
 import '../errors-CzMUYo7b.js';

package/dist/wire/index.js CHANGED Viewed

@@ -34,8 +34,8 @@ import {
   runRpcOnce,
   startServer,
   startServerAsync
-} from "../chunk-QS3RBQPI.js";
-import "../chunk-CVVHBFGN.js";
+} from "../chunk-D5KBVULY.js";
+import "../chunk-CWNP4DV4.js";
 import "../chunk-PC4UYEBM.js";
 import "../chunk-3BFEG2F6.js";
 import "../chunk-PZ5AY32C.js";

package/dist/workflow/index.d.ts CHANGED Viewed

@@ -1,28 +1,28 @@
-import { W as WorkflowTopology } from '../harness-optimizer-EnEnQPsr.js';
+import { W as WorkflowTopology } from '../harness-optimizer-mOl9XX_O.js';
 import { a as RunSplitTag, b as RunTokenUsage, R as RunRecord } from '../run-record-e7vj1uZQ.js';
-import { c as AnalystFinding, h as AnalystSeverity, E as EvidenceRef } from '../types-2VVIL04s.js';
-import { F as FailureClusterInsight } from '../insight-report-BBwvOh6x.js';
+import { c as AnalystFinding, h as AnalystSeverity, E as EvidenceRef } from '../types-Ce17tDlG.js';
+import { F as FailureClusterInsight } from '../insight-report-DWl3z9tl.js';
 import { a as VerificationReport, L as LayerResult } from '../multi-layer-verifier-DUZXrPDA.js';
-import { F as FailureClusterReport } from '../failure-cluster-CL7IVgkJ.js';
+import { F as FailureClusterReport } from '../failure-cluster-DH9Flgcf.js';
 import { R as RedactionRule, a as RedactionReport } from '../redact-B40YG2M_.js';
 import { D as DatasetSplit } from '../dataset-BbGkaN2I.js';
-import { a as FeedbackTrajectory } from '../feedback-trajectory-D9OVLrg9.js';
-import { a as PairedBootstrapResult } from '../statistics-C7PozGrZ.js';
+import { a as FeedbackTrajectory } from '../feedback-trajectory-BxY0cKfs.js';
+import { a as PairedBootstrapResult } from '../statistics-CCJpTGOS.js';
 import '../pareto-E-pembql.js';
-import '../run-critic-BAIjX99r.js';
+import '../run-critic-CmMf05uV.js';
 import '../schema-m0gsnbt3.js';
-import '../store-CKUAgsJz.js';
+import '../store-BcFXE6LG.js';
 import '../errors-CzMUYo7b.js';
 import '../store-C1YxJDEK.js';
-import '../types-Croy5h7V.js';
+import '../types-C7DGg5ex.js';
 import '@tangle-network/tcloud';
-import '../llm-client-BeEcAokY.js';
+import '../llm-client-Bj7g0rqu.js';
 import '../raw-provider-sink-C46HDghv.js';
-import '../summary-report-DGmUucwQ.js';
+import '../summary-report-BDOFevaT.js';
 import '../judge-calibration-0p2QcWNE.js';
 import '../verdict-C9MlYujm.js';
-import '../control-runtime-DuFBYg7A.js';
-import '../emitter-DEZwY14K.js';
+import '../control-runtime-Acf9CGhw.js';
+import '../emitter-C2rqGH_l.js';
 type WorkflowTraceVersion = 'workflow-trace-v1';
 type WorkflowTraceEventKind = 'workflow.started' | 'workflow.phase' | 'workflow.log' | 'workflow.parallel.started' | 'workflow.parallel.ended' | 'workflow.pipeline.started' | 'workflow.pipeline.ended' | 'workflow.branch.started' | 'workflow.branch.ended' | 'workflow.branch.failed' | 'workflow.agent.started' | 'workflow.agent.ended' | 'workflow.agent.failed' | 'workflow.loop.started' | 'workflow.loop.ended' | 'workflow.loop.failed' | 'workflow.verifier.started' | 'workflow.verifier.ended' | 'workflow.verifier.failed' | 'workflow.analyst.started' | 'workflow.analyst.ended' | 'workflow.analyst.failed' | 'workflow.reviewer.started' | 'workflow.reviewer.ended' | 'workflow.reviewer.failed' | 'workflow.failed' | 'workflow.ended';

package/dist/workflow/index.js CHANGED Viewed

@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
 import {
   pairedBootstrap
-} from "../chunk-LMZQ2Z4U.js";
+} from "../chunk-56GC6VYO.js";
 import {
   DEFAULT_REDACTION_RULES,
   redactString

package/package.json CHANGED Viewed

@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
 {
   "name": "@tangle-network/agent-eval",
-  "version": "0.93.0",
+  "version": "0.94.0",
   "description": "Evaluate and improve AI agents from runs, traces, judges, and feedback. Compare candidates, cluster failures, measure lift, and gate releases.",
   "homepage": "https://github.com/tangle-network/agent-eval#readme",
   "repository": {

package/dist/chunk-47X6LRCE.js.map DELETED Viewed

@@ -1 +0,0 @@

- {"version":3,"sources":["../src/trace/query.ts"],"sourcesContent":["/**\n * Typed query helpers over TraceStore.\n *\n * Not a full SQL engine — a minimal, composable set of operators that\n * cover the canned-pipeline use cases. For ad-hoc analytics, persist to\n * NDJSON and point DuckDB at it; the schema is stable so external SQL\n * tooling works out of the box.\n */\n\nimport type { FailureClass, JudgeSpan, LlmSpan, Run, ToolSpan } from './schema'\nimport { isJudgeSpan, isLlmSpan, isToolSpan } from './schema'\nimport type { TraceStore } from './store'\n\nexport async function runsForScenario(store: TraceStore, scenarioId: string): Promise<Run[]> {\n return store.listRuns({ scenarioId })\n}\n\nexport async function llmSpans(store: TraceStore, runId?: string): Promise<LlmSpan[]> {\n const spans = await store.spans({ runId, kind: 'llm' })\n return spans.filter(isLlmSpan)\n}\n\nexport async function toolSpans(\n store: TraceStore,\n runId?: string,\n toolName?: string,\n): Promise<ToolSpan[]> {\n const spans = await store.spans({ runId, kind: 'tool', toolName })\n return spans.filter(isToolSpan)\n}\n\nexport async function judgeSpans(store: TraceStore, runId?: string): Promise<JudgeSpan[]> {\n const spans = await store.spans({ runId, kind: 'judge' })\n return spans.filter(isJudgeSpan)\n}\n\n/** Group spans by any key selector. */\nexport function groupBy<T, K extends string | number>(items: T[], key: (t: T) => K): Map<K, T[]> {\n const map = new Map<K, T[]>()\n for (const item of items) {\n const k = key(item)\n let bucket = map.get(k)\n if (!bucket) {\n bucket = []\n map.set(k, bucket)\n }\n bucket.push(item)\n }\n return map\n}\n\n/** Hash tool arguments to an orderless-key-stable string for de-duplication. */\nexport function argHash(args: unknown): string {\n return stableStringify(args)\n}\n\nfunction stableStringify(value: unknown): string {\n if (value === null || typeof value !== 'object') return JSON.stringify(value)\n if (Array.isArray(value)) return `[${value.map(stableStringify).join(',')}]`\n const keys = Object.keys(value as Record<string, unknown>).sort()\n const parts = keys.map(\n (k) => `${JSON.stringify(k)}:${stableStringify((value as Record<string, unknown>)[k])}`,\n )\n return `{${parts.join(',')}}`\n}\n\n/** Sum an LLM-span array into aggregate token + cost. */\nexport function aggregateLlm(spans: LlmSpan[]): {\n inputTokens: number\n outputTokens: number\n cachedTokens: number\n costUsd: number\n} {\n return spans.reduce(\n (acc, s) => ({\n inputTokens: acc.inputTokens + (s.inputTokens ?? 0),\n outputTokens: acc.outputTokens + (s.outputTokens ?? 0),\n cachedTokens: acc.cachedTokens + (s.cachedTokens ?? 0),\n costUsd: acc.costUsd + (s.costUsd ?? 0),\n }),\n { inputTokens: 0, outputTokens: 0, cachedTokens: 0, costUsd: 0 },\n )\n}\n\n/** Pick the outcome's failure class when present, else derive 'success' from run status. */\nexport function runFailureClass(run: Run): FailureClass {\n if (run.outcome?.failureClass) return run.outcome.failureClass\n if (run.status === 'completed' && run.outcome?.pass !== false) return 'success'\n if (run.status === 'aborted') return 'budget_exceeded'\n return 'unknown'\n}\n"],"mappings":";;;;;;;AAaA,eAAsB,gBAAgB,OAAmB,YAAoC;AAC3F,SAAO,MAAM,SAAS,EAAE,WAAW,CAAC;AACtC;AAEA,eAAsB,SAAS,OAAmB,OAAoC;AACpF,QAAM,QAAQ,MAAM,MAAM,MAAM,EAAE,OAAO,MAAM,MAAM,CAAC;AACtD,SAAO,MAAM,OAAO,SAAS;AAC/B;AAEA,eAAsB,UACpB,OACA,OACA,UACqB;AACrB,QAAM,QAAQ,MAAM,MAAM,MAAM,EAAE,OAAO,MAAM,QAAQ,SAAS,CAAC;AACjE,SAAO,MAAM,OAAO,UAAU;AAChC;AAEA,eAAsB,WAAW,OAAmB,OAAsC;AACxF,QAAM,QAAQ,MAAM,MAAM,MAAM,EAAE,OAAO,MAAM,QAAQ,CAAC;AACxD,SAAO,MAAM,OAAO,WAAW;AACjC;AAGO,SAAS,QAAsC,OAAY,KAA+B;AAC/F,QAAM,MAAM,oBAAI,IAAY;AAC5B,aAAW,QAAQ,OAAO;AACxB,UAAM,IAAI,IAAI,IAAI;AAClB,QAAI,SAAS,IAAI,IAAI,CAAC;AACtB,QAAI,CAAC,QAAQ;AACX,eAAS,CAAC;AACV,UAAI,IAAI,GAAG,MAAM;AAAA,IACnB;AACA,WAAO,KAAK,IAAI;AAAA,EAClB;AACA,SAAO;AACT;AAGO,SAAS,QAAQ,MAAuB;AAC7C,SAAO,gBAAgB,IAAI;AAC7B;AAEA,SAAS,gBAAgB,OAAwB;AAC/C,MAAI,UAAU,QAAQ,OAAO,UAAU,SAAU,QAAO,KAAK,UAAU,KAAK;AAC5E,MAAI,MAAM,QAAQ,KAAK,EAAG,QAAO,IAAI,MAAM,IAAI,eAAe,EAAE,KAAK,GAAG,CAAC;AACzE,QAAM,OAAO,OAAO,KAAK,KAAgC,EAAE,KAAK;AAChE,QAAM,QAAQ,KAAK;AAAA,IACjB,CAAC,MAAM,GAAG,KAAK,UAAU,CAAC,CAAC,IAAI,gBAAiB,MAAkC,CAAC,CAAC,CAAC;AAAA,EACvF;AACA,SAAO,IAAI,MAAM,KAAK,GAAG,CAAC;AAC5B;AAGO,SAAS,aAAa,OAK3B;AACA,SAAO,MAAM;AAAA,IACX,CAAC,KAAK,OAAO;AAAA,MACX,aAAa,IAAI,eAAe,EAAE,eAAe;AAAA,MACjD,cAAc,IAAI,gBAAgB,EAAE,gBAAgB;AAAA,MACpD,cAAc,IAAI,gBAAgB,EAAE,gBAAgB;AAAA,MACpD,SAAS,IAAI,WAAW,EAAE,WAAW;AAAA,IACvC;AAAA,IACA,EAAE,aAAa,GAAG,cAAc,GAAG,cAAc,GAAG,SAAS,EAAE;AAAA,EACjE;AACF;AAGO,SAAS,gBAAgB,KAAwB;AACtD,MAAI,IAAI,SAAS,aAAc,QAAO,IAAI,QAAQ;AAClD,MAAI,IAAI,WAAW,eAAe,IAAI,SAAS,SAAS,MAAO,QAAO;AACtE,MAAI,IAAI,WAAW,UAAW,QAAO;AACrC,SAAO;AACT;","names":[]}

package/dist/chunk-CVVHBFGN.js.map DELETED Viewed

@@ -1 +0,0 @@

- {"version":3,"sources":["../src/llm-client.ts"],"sourcesContent":["/**\n * LLM client with graceful degrade.\n *\n * OpenAI-compatible `/v1/chat/completions` client with:\n * - Exponential-backoff retry on 429 + 5xx gateway errors (502/503/504).\n * - Retry on transient network errors (fetch failed, AbortError, ECONNRESET).\n * - Graceful json_schema → json_object degrade on 400 with schema-reject body.\n * - Fenced-JSON stripping (```json ... ```) for models that wrap structured output.\n * - Configurable base URL + api key / bearer, works with LiteLLM proxies, OpenAI\n * directly, cli-bridge subscriptions, and any router that speaks the spec.\n *\n * Usage:\n * const { value, result } = await callLlmJson<MyType>(\n * { model: 'gpt-4o', messages: [...], jsonSchema: { name: 'x', schema: {...} } },\n * { baseUrl: 'https://router.tangle.tools/v1', apiKey: process.env.KEY },\n * )\n *\n * This is THE llm-calling seam for agent-eval primitives that need structured\n * output (semantic concept judge, reviewer directives, critic scores). Primitives\n * that need free-form text use `callLlm` and parse output themselves.\n */\n\nimport { AgentEvalError, CaptureIntegrityError } from './errors'\nimport {\n defaultProviderRedactor,\n type ProviderRedactor,\n providerFromBaseUrl,\n type RawProviderEvent,\n type RawProviderSink,\n} from './trace/raw-provider-sink'\n\n// ─── Types ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────\n\nexport interface LlmMessage {\n role: 'system' | 'user' | 'assistant'\n /**\n * Either a plain text content string OR a multimodal content array\n * (text + image_url parts) for vision-capable models.\n */\n content:\n | string\n | Array<\n | { type: 'text'; text: string }\n | { type: 'image_url'; image_url: { url: string; detail?: 'auto' | 'low' | 'high' } }\n >\n}\n\nexport interface LlmCallRequest {\n model: string\n messages: LlmMessage[]\n /** Optional JSON-mode response format (response_format: json_object). */\n jsonMode?: boolean\n /** Optional structured output via JSON Schema. Falls back to json_object on 400. */\n jsonSchema?: { name: string; schema: Record<string, unknown> }\n temperature?: number\n maxTokens?: number\n /** Per-call timeout, default 300s. */\n timeoutMs?: number\n}\n\nexport interface LlmUsage {\n promptTokens: number\n completionTokens: number\n totalTokens: number\n /** Proxies populate this when prompt caching is on. */\n cachedPromptTokens?: number\n}\n\nexport interface LlmCallResult {\n /** The text content of the first choice. Empty string if none. */\n content: string\n usage: LlmUsage\n /**\n * Cost in USD. Pulled from proxy's `_response_cost` field when present;\n * `null` when neither the proxy nor the caller can derive it.\n */\n costUsd: number | null\n /** Model name actually used (echoed from response). */\n model: string\n /** Wall-clock duration of the HTTP call (last attempt, if retried). */\n durationMs: number\n /** Raw response body. */\n raw: Record<string, unknown>\n}\n\nexport class LlmCallError extends AgentEvalError {\n constructor(\n message: string,\n public readonly status: number,\n public readonly body: string,\n public readonly model: string,\n ) {\n super('judge', message)\n }\n}\n\nexport interface LlmClientOptions {\n /** Base URL (without trailing slash). Must end at the `/v1` prefix. */\n baseUrl?: string\n /** Bearer token — either `apiKey` or `bearer` populates `Authorization: Bearer ...`. */\n apiKey?: string\n bearer?: string\n /** Override for the `Authorization` header (e.g. `X-Auth: ...`). Takes precedence over apiKey/bearer. */\n authHeader?: { name: string; value: string }\n /** Default timeout in ms. Per-call can override. */\n defaultTimeoutMs?: number\n /** Max retry attempts on retriable errors. Default 3 (1 initial + 2 retries). */\n maxRetries?: number\n /** Fetch implementation — defaults to global `fetch`. Override for custom transport (e.g. tests). */\n fetch?: typeof fetch\n /**\n * Optional raw HTTP capture sink. When provided, every request, response,\n * and error (across all retry attempts) is recorded to the sink, with auth\n * headers and credential-shaped body fields redacted by default. This is\n * the layer-1 forensics primitive: structured `LlmSpan`s record intent,\n * raw events record what actually crossed the wire.\n */\n rawSink?: RawProviderSink\n /**\n * Logical provider id attached to raw events. When omitted, derived from\n * `baseUrl` via `providerFromBaseUrl`.\n */\n provider?: string\n /** Trace context attached to raw events; populated by emitter-aware callers. */\n traceContext?: { runId?: string; spanId?: string }\n /** Override the redaction strategy for this call. Defaults to `defaultProviderRedactor`. */\n redactor?: ProviderRedactor\n}\n\n// ─── Internals ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────\n\nconst DEFAULT_BASE_URL = 'https://router.tangle.tools/v1'\n// Flagship / reasoning models routinely take several minutes on large prompts (a\n// reflection over many failures, a long tool transcript). A tight cap aborts a\n// legitimately-slow but healthy call — and because every retry attempt re-uses\n// the same window, such a model aborts on ALL attempts and the loop throws. The\n// default is generous enough to let those complete, bounded enough that a truly\n// hung call still fails over after retries, and tunable per deployment via\n// TANGLE_LLM_TIMEOUT_MS. Per-call `req.timeoutMs` / `opts.defaultTimeoutMs`\n// still win for callers that know their model's latency.\nconst DEFAULT_TIMEOUT_MS = Number(process.env.TANGLE_LLM_TIMEOUT_MS) || 300_000\nconst DEFAULT_MAX_RETRIES = Number(process.env.TANGLE_LLM_MAX_RETRIES) || 3\n\nconst RETRYABLE_STATUS = new Set([429, 502, 503, 504])\n\n/**\n * Transient transport/network error signatures, matched against an error's\n * name, message, and `code`. Covers fetch/undici network failures, aborts\n * and timeouts, and — critically — HTTP/2 transport faults a keep-alive\n * connection raises mid-response: `terminated`, `NGHTTP2_INTERNAL_ERROR`,\n * `UND_ERR_*`, `other side closed`. Those last ones carry no clean HTTP\n * status; unrecognised, they escape the retry loop and surface as an\n * uncaught rejection.\n */\nconst TRANSIENT_ERROR_PATTERNS: readonly RegExp[] = [\n /AbortError/i,\n /TimeoutError/i,\n /this operation was aborted/i,\n /fetch failed/i,\n /ECONNRESET/i,\n /ETIMEDOUT/i,\n /EAI_AGAIN/i,\n /socket hang up/i,\n /stream.*ended.*unexpectedly/i,\n /terminated/i,\n /other side closed/i,\n /NGHTTP2/i,\n /UND_ERR/i,\n]\n\n/**\n * True when an error is a transient transport/network fault worth retrying,\n * as opposed to a deterministic failure (4xx schema reject, JSON parse) that\n * a retry cannot fix. Inspects `LlmCallError.status`, then the error's\n * name/message/code, then recurses into `error.cause` — undici nests the\n * real socket fault one or more levels under `.cause`.\n *\n * This is THE retry classifier for the package: `callLlm` and\n * `withJudgeRetry` both route through it, so a connection-class error is\n * treated identically whether it surfaces in the HTTP client or a\n * TCloud-backed judge.\n */\nexport function isTransientLlmError(err: unknown): boolean {\n return classifyTransient(err, 0)\n}\n\nfunction classifyTransient(err: unknown, depth: number): boolean {\n if (err instanceof LlmCallError) return RETRYABLE_STATUS.has(err.status)\n if (!(err instanceof Error)) return false\n // Foreign errors (e.g. a TCloud judge SDK error) can carry a numeric HTTP\n // status without being an LlmCallError — a retryable status is decisive.\n const status = (err as { status?: unknown }).status\n if (typeof status === 'number' && RETRYABLE_STATUS.has(status)) return true\n const code = (err as { code?: unknown }).code\n const haystack = `${err.name}\\n${err.message}\\n${typeof code === 'string' ? code : ''}`\n if (TRANSIENT_ERROR_PATTERNS.some((p) => p.test(haystack))) return true\n const cause = (err as { cause?: unknown }).cause\n if (depth < 4 && cause instanceof Error && cause !== err) {\n return classifyTransient(cause, depth + 1)\n }\n return false\n}\n\nfunction parseRetryAfter(headers: Headers): number | null {\n const h = headers.get('retry-after')\n if (!h) return null\n const asNumber = Number(h)\n if (Number.isFinite(asNumber) && asNumber > 0) return asNumber * 1000\n const asDate = Date.parse(h)\n if (Number.isFinite(asDate)) return Math.max(0, asDate - Date.now())\n return null\n}\n\n/** Exponential backoff: 500ms, 1s, 2s, 4s, ... capped at 16s. Attempt is 0-indexed. */\nexport function backoffMs(attempt: number): number {\n return Math.min(500 * 2 ** attempt, 16_000)\n}\n\nfunction buildHeaders(opts: LlmClientOptions): Record<string, string> {\n const headers: Record<string, string> = {\n 'Content-Type': 'application/json',\n Accept: 'application/json',\n }\n if (opts.authHeader) {\n headers[opts.authHeader.name] = opts.authHeader.value\n } else if (opts.bearer || opts.apiKey) {\n headers.Authorization = `Bearer ${opts.bearer ?? opts.apiKey}`\n }\n return headers\n}\n\nfunction isSchemaRejection(status: number, body: string): boolean {\n if (status !== 400) return false\n const lower = body.toLowerCase()\n return (\n lower.includes('response_format') ||\n lower.includes('json_schema') ||\n lower.includes('is unavailable') ||\n lower.includes('not supported')\n )\n}\n\nfunction buildBody(req: LlmCallRequest, forceJsonObject: boolean): Record<string, unknown> {\n const body: Record<string, unknown> = {\n model: req.model,\n messages: req.messages,\n temperature: req.temperature ?? 0,\n }\n if (req.maxTokens != null) {\n if (usesMaxCompletionTokens(req.model)) body.max_completion_tokens = req.maxTokens\n else body.max_tokens = req.maxTokens\n }\n\n if (req.jsonSchema && !forceJsonObject) {\n body.response_format = {\n type: 'json_schema',\n json_schema: { name: req.jsonSchema.name, schema: req.jsonSchema.schema, strict: true },\n }\n } else if (req.jsonMode || req.jsonSchema) {\n body.response_format = { type: 'json_object' }\n }\n\n return body\n}\n\nfunction usesMaxCompletionTokens(model: string): boolean {\n return /^gpt-5(?:[.-]|$)/i.test(model)\n}\n\nasync function sleep(ms: number): Promise<void> {\n return new Promise((resolve) => setTimeout(resolve, ms))\n}\n\n// ─── Public API ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────\n\n/**\n * Strip a ```json / ``` code fence if the model emitted one.\n * Idempotent for naked JSON. Some models (claude-code via router, certain\n * deepseek models) wrap output even under json_object.\n */\nexport function stripFencedJson(raw: string): string {\n const trimmed = raw.trim()\n const m = trimmed.match(/^```(?:json)?\\s*\\n?([\\s\\S]*?)\\n?```\\s*$/)\n return m ? m[1]!.trim() : trimmed\n}\n\nexport function extractJsonPayload(raw: string): string {\n const stripped = stripFencedJson(raw)\n try {\n JSON.parse(stripped)\n return stripped\n } catch {\n // Continue with balanced extraction below.\n }\n\n const starts = [...stripped.matchAll(/[[{]/g)]\n .map((match) => match.index)\n .filter((index) => index != null)\n for (const start of starts) {\n const candidate = extractBalancedJson(stripped, start)\n if (!candidate) continue\n try {\n JSON.parse(candidate)\n return candidate\n } catch {\n // Keep scanning; earlier braces may belong to prose.\n }\n }\n\n return stripped\n}\n\nfunction extractBalancedJson(input: string, start: number): string | null {\n const opener = input[start]\n const closer = opener === '{' ? '}' : opener === '[' ? ']' : null\n if (!closer) return null\n\n const stack: string[] = [closer]\n let isInString = false\n let isEscaped = false\n\n for (let i = start + 1; i < input.length; i++) {\n const char = input[i]!\n if (isEscaped) {\n isEscaped = false\n continue\n }\n if (char === '\\\\') {\n isEscaped = isInString\n continue\n }\n if (char === '\"') {\n isInString = !isInString\n continue\n }\n if (isInString) continue\n\n if (char === '{') stack.push('}')\n else if (char === '[') stack.push(']')\n else if (char === stack[stack.length - 1]) {\n stack.pop()\n if (stack.length === 0) return input.slice(start, i + 1)\n }\n }\n\n return null\n}\n\n/**\n * Low-level call. Returns raw content + usage + cost. Retries on transient\n * failures; does NOT degrade schema here — callers that want graceful\n * degrade use `callLlmJson`.\n */\nexport async function callLlm(\n req: LlmCallRequest,\n opts: LlmClientOptions = {},\n): Promise<LlmCallResult> {\n const baseUrl = (opts.baseUrl ?? DEFAULT_BASE_URL).replace(/\\/+$/, '')\n const url = `${baseUrl}/chat/completions`\n const endpoint = '/chat/completions'\n const timeoutMs = req.timeoutMs ?? opts.defaultTimeoutMs ?? DEFAULT_TIMEOUT_MS\n const maxRetries = opts.maxRetries ?? DEFAULT_MAX_RETRIES\n const fetchFn = opts.fetch ?? globalThis.fetch\n const headers = buildHeaders(opts)\n const provider = opts.provider ?? providerFromBaseUrl(baseUrl)\n const sink = opts.rawSink\n const redactor = opts.redactor ?? defaultProviderRedactor\n const traceContext = opts.traceContext\n\n let lastErr: unknown\n for (let attempt = 0; attempt < maxRetries; attempt++) {\n const controller = new AbortController()\n const timeoutHandle = setTimeout(() => controller.abort(), timeoutMs)\n const started = Date.now()\n const requestBody = buildBody(req, false)\n let attemptErrorRecorded = false\n if (sink) {\n await recordRaw(sink, redactor, {\n eventId: cryptoEventId(),\n runId: traceContext?.runId,\n spanId: traceContext?.spanId,\n provider,\n model: req.model,\n endpoint,\n baseUrl,\n attemptIndex: attempt,\n direction: 'request',\n timestamp: started,\n requestHeaders: headers,\n requestBody,\n redactedFields: [],\n })\n }\n\n try {\n const res = await fetchFn(url, {\n method: 'POST',\n headers,\n body: JSON.stringify(requestBody),\n signal: controller.signal,\n })\n clearTimeout(timeoutHandle)\n const responseHeaders = sink ? headersToObject(res.headers) : undefined\n\n if (!res.ok) {\n const body = await res.text()\n if (sink) {\n await recordRaw(sink, redactor, {\n eventId: cryptoEventId(),\n runId: traceContext?.runId,\n spanId: traceContext?.spanId,\n provider,\n model: req.model,\n endpoint,\n baseUrl,\n attemptIndex: attempt,\n direction: 'error',\n timestamp: Date.now(),\n durationMs: Date.now() - started,\n statusCode: res.status,\n responseHeaders,\n responseBody: body,\n errorMessage: `HTTP ${res.status}`,\n redactedFields: [],\n })\n attemptErrorRecorded = true\n }\n const err = new LlmCallError(\n `LLM call ${res.status}: ${body.slice(0, 300)}`,\n res.status,\n body,\n req.model,\n )\n if (RETRYABLE_STATUS.has(res.status) && attempt < maxRetries - 1) {\n lastErr = err\n const retryAfter = parseRetryAfter(res.headers)\n await sleep(retryAfter ?? backoffMs(attempt))\n continue\n }\n throw err\n }\n\n const text = await res.text()\n let json: Record<string, unknown>\n try {\n json = JSON.parse(text) as Record<string, unknown>\n } catch (parseErr) {\n if (sink) {\n await recordRaw(sink, redactor, {\n eventId: cryptoEventId(),\n runId: traceContext?.runId,\n spanId: traceContext?.spanId,\n provider,\n model: req.model,\n endpoint,\n baseUrl,\n attemptIndex: attempt,\n direction: 'error',\n timestamp: Date.now(),\n durationMs: Date.now() - started,\n statusCode: res.status,\n responseHeaders,\n responseBody: text,\n errorMessage: `non-JSON response: ${parseErr instanceof Error ? parseErr.message : String(parseErr)}`,\n redactedFields: [],\n })\n attemptErrorRecorded = true\n }\n throw parseErr\n }\n if (sink) {\n await recordRaw(sink, redactor, {\n eventId: cryptoEventId(),\n runId: traceContext?.runId,\n spanId: traceContext?.spanId,\n provider,\n model: req.model,\n endpoint,\n baseUrl,\n attemptIndex: attempt,\n direction: 'response',\n timestamp: Date.now(),\n durationMs: Date.now() - started,\n statusCode: res.status,\n responseHeaders,\n responseBody: json,\n redactedFields: [],\n })\n }\n const choice = (json.choices as Array<{ message?: { content?: string } }> | undefined)?.[0]\n const usageRaw = (json.usage as Record<string, unknown> | undefined) ?? {}\n const costFromProxy = (json._response_cost ?? json.cost_usd) as number | undefined\n\n return {\n content: choice?.message?.content ?? '',\n usage: {\n promptTokens: Number(usageRaw.prompt_tokens ?? 0),\n completionTokens: Number(usageRaw.completion_tokens ?? 0),\n totalTokens: Number(usageRaw.total_tokens ?? 0),\n cachedPromptTokens:\n usageRaw.prompt_tokens_details && typeof usageRaw.prompt_tokens_details === 'object'\n ? Number(\n (usageRaw.prompt_tokens_details as Record<string, unknown>).cached_tokens ?? 0,\n )\n : undefined,\n },\n costUsd: typeof costFromProxy === 'number' ? costFromProxy : null,\n model: (json.model as string) ?? req.model,\n durationMs: Date.now() - started,\n raw: json,\n }\n } catch (err) {\n clearTimeout(timeoutHandle)\n lastErr = err\n if (sink && !attemptErrorRecorded) {\n // Record only if neither the !res.ok branch nor the JSON.parse catch\n // already produced an error event for this attempt. Covers network\n // failures, timeouts, and aborts.\n await recordRaw(sink, redactor, {\n eventId: cryptoEventId(),\n runId: traceContext?.runId,\n spanId: traceContext?.spanId,\n provider,\n model: req.model,\n endpoint,\n baseUrl,\n attemptIndex: attempt,\n direction: 'error',\n timestamp: Date.now(),\n durationMs: Date.now() - started,\n errorMessage: err instanceof Error ? err.message : String(err),\n redactedFields: [],\n })\n }\n if (attempt < maxRetries - 1 && isTransientLlmError(err)) {\n await sleep(backoffMs(attempt))\n continue\n }\n throw err\n }\n }\n throw lastErr instanceof Error ? lastErr : new Error(String(lastErr))\n}\n\nasync function recordRaw(\n sink: RawProviderSink,\n redactor: ProviderRedactor,\n event: RawProviderEvent,\n): Promise<void> {\n // Errors from sinks must not crash the LLM call. Forensic capture is\n // best-effort; the structured trace is the system of record.\n try {\n await sink.record(redactor(event))\n } catch {\n // Intentionally swallowed.\n }\n}\n\nfunction headersToObject(h: Headers): Record<string, string> {\n const out: Record<string, string> = {}\n h.forEach((value, key) => {\n out[key] = value\n })\n return out\n}\n\nfunction cryptoEventId(): string {\n if (typeof globalThis.crypto?.randomUUID === 'function') return globalThis.crypto.randomUUID()\n return `${Date.now().toString(36)}-${Math.random().toString(36).slice(2, 10)}`\n}\n\n/**\n * Structured-output call. Returns parsed JSON plus the raw result envelope.\n * Degrades `jsonSchema` → `jsonMode` on a 400 that names the schema param —\n * critical for deepseek-v3/v4, kimi-k2.6, and other models that don't accept\n * the `response_format.json_schema` shape but DO accept `json_object`.\n */\nexport async function callLlmJson<T = unknown>(\n req: LlmCallRequest,\n opts: LlmClientOptions = {},\n): Promise<{ value: T; result: LlmCallResult }> {\n try {\n const result = await callLlm({ ...req, jsonMode: req.jsonMode ?? !req.jsonSchema }, opts)\n const value = parseJsonSafely<T>(result.content, result.model)\n return { value, result }\n } catch (err) {\n if (err instanceof LlmCallError && isSchemaRejection(err.status, err.body) && req.jsonSchema) {\n // Degrade to json_object + retry.\n const degradedReq: LlmCallRequest = { ...req, jsonMode: true, jsonSchema: undefined }\n const result = await callLlm(degradedReq, opts)\n const value = parseJsonSafely<T>(result.content, result.model)\n return { value, result }\n }\n throw err\n }\n}\n\nfunction parseJsonSafely<T>(content: string, model: string): T {\n const stripped = extractJsonPayload(content)\n try {\n return JSON.parse(stripped) as T\n } catch (err) {\n throw new Error(\n `LLM returned non-JSON content (model=${model}): ${\n err instanceof Error ? err.message : String(err)\n }\\n--- raw content ---\\n${content.slice(0, 800)}`,\n )\n }\n}\n\n// ─── Route assertion ────────────────────────────────────────────────────\n\nexport type LlmRouteAssertionReason =\n | 'no_explicit_base_url'\n | 'base_url_blocked'\n | 'base_url_not_allowed'\n | 'no_auth'\n | 'wrong_provider'\n\nexport class LlmRouteAssertionError extends CaptureIntegrityError {\n constructor(\n message: string,\n public readonly reason: LlmRouteAssertionReason,\n public readonly baseUrl: string,\n ) {\n super(message)\n }\n}\n\nexport interface LlmRouteRequirements {\n /**\n * Throw if `opts.baseUrl` is undefined, i.e. the call would fall back to\n * `DEFAULT_BASE_URL`. Set this for evaluation runs where silently using\n * the public/free-tier router is a defect — the launch reviewer needs to\n * know exactly which provider answered.\n */\n requireExplicitBaseUrl?: boolean\n /**\n * Allowlist of acceptable base URLs. Strings match by prefix\n * (case-insensitive); RegExps test against the full base URL.\n */\n allowedBaseUrls?: Array<string | RegExp>\n /** Blocklist that takes precedence over `allowedBaseUrls`. */\n blockedBaseUrls?: Array<string | RegExp>\n /** Throw if no auth header / api key is configured. */\n requireAuth?: boolean\n /**\n * Logical provider id the configured `baseUrl` is expected to match (via\n * `providerFromBaseUrl`). Mainly useful when paired with `requireExplicitBaseUrl`.\n */\n expectedProvider?: string\n}\n\n/**\n * Fail-loud assertion that the configured LLM client points at the route\n * the caller intends. Designed for the matrix-runner preflight: invoke\n * once before any LLM call to catch misconfiguration before a sweep burns\n * dollars on the wrong provider.\n *\n * Throws `LlmRouteAssertionError`. Pure — no I/O — so it's safe to call\n * from constructors and CI gates.\n */\nexport function assertLlmRoute(opts: LlmClientOptions, req: LlmRouteRequirements = {}): void {\n const baseUrlExplicit = opts.baseUrl !== undefined\n const baseUrl = (opts.baseUrl ?? DEFAULT_BASE_URL).replace(/\\/+$/, '')\n\n if (req.requireExplicitBaseUrl && !baseUrlExplicit) {\n throw new LlmRouteAssertionError(\n `assertLlmRoute: requireExplicitBaseUrl set but opts.baseUrl is undefined; would fall back to ${DEFAULT_BASE_URL}.`,\n 'no_explicit_base_url',\n baseUrl,\n )\n }\n\n if (req.blockedBaseUrls?.some((p) => matchUrl(baseUrl, p))) {\n throw new LlmRouteAssertionError(\n `assertLlmRoute: baseUrl ${baseUrl} matches a blocked pattern.`,\n 'base_url_blocked',\n baseUrl,\n )\n }\n\n if (req.allowedBaseUrls && req.allowedBaseUrls.length > 0) {\n const ok = req.allowedBaseUrls.some((p) => matchUrl(baseUrl, p))\n if (!ok) {\n throw new LlmRouteAssertionError(\n `assertLlmRoute: baseUrl ${baseUrl} is not in the allowed list (${req.allowedBaseUrls.map(describePattern).join(', ')}).`,\n 'base_url_not_allowed',\n baseUrl,\n )\n }\n }\n\n if (req.requireAuth && !opts.apiKey && !opts.bearer && !opts.authHeader) {\n throw new LlmRouteAssertionError(\n `assertLlmRoute: requireAuth set but no apiKey, bearer, or authHeader was supplied.`,\n 'no_auth',\n baseUrl,\n )\n }\n\n if (req.expectedProvider) {\n const actual = opts.provider ?? providerFromBaseUrl(baseUrl)\n if (actual !== req.expectedProvider) {\n throw new LlmRouteAssertionError(\n `assertLlmRoute: expected provider ${req.expectedProvider} but baseUrl ${baseUrl} resolves to ${actual}.`,\n 'wrong_provider',\n baseUrl,\n )\n }\n }\n}\n\nfunction matchUrl(url: string, pattern: string | RegExp): boolean {\n if (pattern instanceof RegExp) return pattern.test(url)\n return url.toLowerCase().startsWith(pattern.toLowerCase())\n}\n\nfunction describePattern(p: string | RegExp): string {\n return p instanceof RegExp ? p.source : p\n}\n\n/**\n * Probe whether a model is reachable. Returns latency + null error on\n * success; `ok=false` + error message on any failure (HTTP, timeout,\n * network, parse). Designed for sweep preflights — fail loud at the\n * boundary before burning a 30-leaf run on a misconfigured router.\n *\n * Sends a tiny `ping` message with `maxTokens=64`. Reasoning models\n * (glm-5.1, deepseek-v4) can burn the entire budget on internal reasoning\n * for short prompts, so don't tighten this further. We don't validate\n * content; HTTP 200 means reachable.\n */\nexport async function probeLlm(\n model: string,\n opts: LlmClientOptions & { timeoutMs?: number } = {},\n): Promise<{ ok: boolean; latencyMs: number; error: string | null }> {\n const start = Date.now()\n try {\n await callLlm(\n {\n model,\n messages: [{ role: 'user', content: 'ping' }],\n maxTokens: 64,\n timeoutMs: opts.timeoutMs ?? 30_000,\n },\n opts,\n )\n return { ok: true, latencyMs: Date.now() - start, error: null }\n } catch (err) {\n return {\n ok: false,\n latencyMs: Date.now() - start,\n error: err instanceof Error ? err.message : String(err),\n }\n }\n}\n\n/**\n * Stateful client — construct once with defaults, call many times.\n * Thin wrapper around the free functions; exists for callers that want\n * to inject a single configured instance into multiple primitives.\n */\nexport class LlmClient {\n constructor(private readonly opts: LlmClientOptions = {}) {}\n\n call(req: LlmCallRequest, per?: LlmClientOptions): Promise<LlmCallResult> {\n return callLlm(req, { ...this.opts, ...per })\n }\n\n callJson<T = unknown>(\n req: LlmCallRequest,\n per?: LlmClientOptions,\n ): Promise<{ value: T; result: LlmCallResult }> {\n return callLlmJson<T>(req, { ...this.opts, ...per })\n 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- {"version":3,"sources":["../src/eval-campaign.ts"],"sourcesContent":["/**\n * EvalCampaign — opinionated matrix runner that wires the four\n * capture-integrity directives by construction.\n *\n * The canonical benchmark shape — matrix runner → for each\n * (variant, scenario, seed) → start a TraceEmitter → call LLMs → end the\n * run → analyze — has a bug class at the integration boundary: raw\n * events not captured, route silently wrong, integrity not asserted,\n * analyst never run. The directives in `SKILL.md § Capture integrity`\n * are the mitigations.\n *\n * `EvalCampaign` is the structural fix — consumers don't wire the\n * integrity surface themselves; the campaign owns it. Specifically:\n *\n * - calls `assertLlmRoute` once at preflight before any work runs\n * - constructs a per-run `TraceStore` and `RawProviderSink` via factories\n * - constructs the `TraceEmitter` with `onRunComplete: [analyst hook]`\n * - hands the runner an `LlmClientOptions` pre-wired with the sink and\n * trace context — the runner can't accidentally call an LLM without\n * capturing the raw HTTP envelope\n * - calls `assertRunCaptured` after every `endRun` and routes failures\n * through a configurable policy (`throw` / `mark_failed` / `log`)\n * - assembles per-run `RunRecord`s and runs `researchReport` at the end\n * so the campaign artifact is launch-decision-grade by default\n * - embeds the campaign fingerprint (a SHA-256 over the canonicalised\n * run set) and optional `preregistrationHash` in the report\n *\n * The runner contract is intentionally narrow: produce a `CampaignRunOutcome`\n * given a fully-wired `CampaignRunContext`. Everything orchestration-shaped\n * lives in the campaign. This is the inversion-of-control point — consumers\n * stop writing matrix runners and start writing scenario-runners.\n *\n * Out of scope for v1 (tracked in `docs/research-report-methodology.md`):\n *\n * - Distributed/cluster execution (concurrency is local async)\n * - Adaptive sampling / sequential interim looks\n * - Resume from partial state across crashes\n * - LLM-call retry beyond what `LlmClient` already does\n */\n\nimport {\n type AgentProfileCell,\n type AgentProfileCellInput,\n buildAgentProfileCell,\n verifyAgentProfileCell,\n} from './agent-profile-cell'\nimport { assertLlmRoute, type LlmClientOptions, type LlmRouteRequirements } from './llm-client'\nimport { canonicalize, hashJson } from './pre-registration'\nimport type {\n JudgeScoresRecord,\n RunJudgeMetadata,\n RunOutcome,\n RunRecord,\n RunSplitTag,\n RunTokenUsage,\n} from './run-record'\nimport { validateRunRecord } from './run-record'\nimport { type ResearchReport, type ResearchReportOptions, researchReport } from './summary-report'\nimport type { RunCompleteHook } from './trace/emitter'\nimport { TraceEmitter } from './trace/emitter'\nimport {\n assertRunCaptured,\n RunIntegrityError,\n type RunIntegrityExpectations,\n type RunIntegrityReport,\n} from './trace/integrity'\nimport { FileSystemRawProviderSink, type RawProviderSink } from './trace/raw-provider-sink'\nimport type { FailureClass } from './trace/schema'\nimport type { TraceStore } from './trace/store'\n\n// ── Public types ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────\n\nexport interface CampaignVariant<V> {\n id: string\n payload: V\n}\n\nexport interface CampaignScenario {\n scenarioId: string\n /** Free-form metadata propagated to runs and reports. */\n tags?: Record<string, string>\n}\n\nexport interface CampaignRunContext<V> {\n /** Stable run id. The campaign generates this; the runner does not. */\n runId: string\n /** Logical experiment id (campaignId by default; overridable per-run via opts). */\n experimentId: string\n variant: V\n variantId: string\n scenarioId: string\n scenarioTags: Record<string, string>\n seed: number\n splitTag: RunSplitTag\n /**\n * The TraceEmitter for this run, with `onRunComplete` hooks pre-wired\n * (analyst auto-execution if configured, plus integrity check). The\n * runner MUST call `emitter.startRun` before doing any work and either\n * `emitter.endRun` or `emitter.abortRun` before returning.\n */\n emitter: TraceEmitter\n store: TraceStore\n rawSink: RawProviderSink\n /**\n * Pre-wired LLM client options — `rawSink` and `traceContext` are populated\n * so any `callLlm(req, ctx.llmOpts)` automatically captures raw HTTP. The\n * runner can spread additional fields if needed.\n */\n llmOpts: LlmClientOptions\n}\n\nexport interface CampaignRunOutcome {\n /** Did the run pass? Mirrors `RunOutcome.pass` semantics. */\n pass: boolean\n /** Score for the run on its split. Maps to `searchScore` or `holdoutScore`. */\n score: number\n /** Mandatory cost in USD. Use 0 + raw.cost_unknown=1 only if truly unknown. */\n costUsd: number\n tokenUsage: RunTokenUsage\n /** Snapshot model id (e.g. `claude-sonnet-4-6@2025-04-15`). */\n model: string\n /** sha256 of the effective prompt sent to the model. */\n promptHash: string\n /** sha256 of the effective config (model, temperature, tools, judges, splits). */\n configHash: string\n /** Optional extra numeric metrics to land in `outcome.raw`. */\n raw?: Record<string, number>\n /** Canonical cross-agent failure class from the shared `FAILURE_CLASSES`\n * taxonomy. Propagated to `RunRecord.failureClass` so campaign runs\n * aggregate failures in the same vocabulary as every other producer. */\n failureClass?: FailureClass\n /** Optional free-form failure detail, scoped under `failureClass`. */\n failureMode?: string\n /** Optional judge metadata when a judge was used. */\n judgeMetadata?: RunJudgeMetadata\n /**\n * Optional per-judge / per-dim breakdown for ensemble-judged runs.\n * Propagated to `outcome.judgeScores` on the resulting `RunRecord`.\n * Single-judge or scalar-only runs leave this unset.\n */\n judgeScores?: JudgeScoresRecord\n /**\n * Agent profile cell observed by the runner. When supplied, it overrides\n * `EvalCampaignOptions.agentProfile` for this run and must match the\n * outcome's `model` and `promptHash`.\n */\n agentProfile?: AgentProfileCell | AgentProfileCellInput\n}\n\nexport type CampaignRunner<V> = (ctx: CampaignRunContext<V>) => Promise<CampaignRunOutcome>\n\nexport type CampaignIntegrityPolicy = 'throw' | 'mark_failed' | 'log'\n\nexport interface EvalCampaignOptions<V> {\n /**\n * Stable id for the campaign. Used as the default `experimentId` on\n * every run, and folded into the campaign fingerprint.\n */\n campaignId: string\n variants: CampaignVariant<V>[]\n scenarios: CampaignScenario[]\n /** Default `[0, 1, 2]`. */\n seeds?: number[]\n /** Default `'holdout'` — the split that anchors a launch decision. */\n splitTag?: RunSplitTag\n /** Git SHA the campaign is run against. Mandatory; `RunRecord` rejects unset. */\n commitSha: string\n /**\n * LLM client config. Augmented per-run with `rawSink` and `traceContext`\n * before being passed to the runner. The campaign asserts this config\n * matches `routeRequirements` once at preflight.\n */\n llmOpts: LlmClientOptions\n /**\n * Default `{ requireExplicitBaseUrl: true, requireAuth: true }` — fail\n * loud if the campaign would silently fall back to the public router or\n * run unauthenticated. Override with an empty object to disable.\n */\n routeRequirements?: LlmRouteRequirements\n /**\n * Per-run TraceStore factory. Common shape: a fresh store per run keyed\n * on `runId`. Implementations that share a store across the campaign\n * are valid — the campaign only writes through `emitter`.\n */\n storeFactory: (params: CampaignFactoryParams) => TraceStore\n /**\n * Per-run RawProviderSink factory. Defaults to `FileSystemRawProviderSink`\n * rooted at `${workDir}/raw-events/${runId}` if `workDir` is supplied;\n * otherwise required. Forensic capture is non-negotiable in a campaign\n * run — pass `NoopRawProviderSink` explicitly if you want to opt out.\n */\n rawSinkFactory?: (params: CampaignFactoryParams) => RawProviderSink\n /**\n * Filesystem root for default `rawSinkFactory`. Ignored if\n * `rawSinkFactory` is supplied.\n */\n workDir?: string\n /**\n * Extra `onRunComplete` hooks the campaign appends (after its own\n * integrity-check hook). Pass `traceAnalystOnRunComplete(...)` here.\n */\n onRunComplete?: RunCompleteHook[]\n /**\n * Per-run integrity expectations. Defaults to:\n * `{ llmSpansMin: 1, requireRawCoverageOfLlmSpans: true, requireOutcome: true }`.\n * Override (e.g. `{ llmSpansMin: 0 }`) for runs that don't call LLMs.\n */\n integrity?: RunIntegrityExpectations\n /** Behaviour when integrity fails. Default `'mark_failed'`. */\n onIntegrityFailure?: CampaignIntegrityPolicy\n /**\n * Per-run runner. Receives a fully-wired context; produces an outcome\n * the campaign converts into a `RunRecord`.\n */\n runner: CampaignRunner<V>\n /**\n * If set, the campaign computes `researchReport` at the end. `comparator`\n * is a `variantId`. Other fields are forwarded verbatim.\n */\n report?: { comparator?: string } & Omit<\n ResearchReportOptions,\n 'comparator' | 'preregistrationHash' | 'generatedAt'\n >\n /**\n * Hash of a signed `HypothesisManifest` (see `pre-registration.ts`).\n * Embedded in the campaign fingerprint and the research report.\n */\n preregistrationHash?: string\n /** Local concurrency. Default `1` (sequential). */\n concurrency?: number\n /**\n * Override the time source. Tests pass a mock to make wallMs deterministic.\n */\n now?: () => number\n /** Override the runId generator. Tests pin this. */\n runId?: (params: CampaignFactoryParams) => string\n /**\n * Agent profile cell for campaign runs. Static profiles can pass an object;\n * routers or variant-specific harnesses can pass a factory. The campaign\n * stamps the built cell onto every `RunRecord` and rejects profile/model or\n * profile/prompt contradictions.\n */\n agentProfile?:\n | AgentProfileCell\n | AgentProfileCellInput\n | ((\n params: CampaignFactoryParams & {\n variant: V\n scenarioTags: Record<string, string>\n },\n ) =>\n | AgentProfileCell\n | AgentProfileCellInput\n | Promise<AgentProfileCell | AgentProfileCellInput>)\n}\n\nexport interface CampaignFactoryParams {\n campaignId: string\n runId: string\n variantId: string\n scenarioId: string\n seed: number\n}\n\nexport interface FailedRun {\n runId: string\n variantId: string\n scenarioId: string\n seed: number\n reason: string\n error?: string\n}\n\nexport interface EvalCampaignResult {\n campaignId: string\n /** SHA-256 over canonicalised `(variantIds, scenarioIds, seeds, comparator, splitTag, baseUrl, provider, preregistrationHash)`. */\n campaignFingerprint: string\n preregistrationHash: string | null\n /** Successful runs only. Failed runs land in `failedRuns`. */\n runs: RunRecord[]\n /** Integrity reports for every successful run. */\n integrityReports: RunIntegrityReport[]\n failedRuns: FailedRun[]\n /** Computed when `report` is set on options. */\n report?: ResearchReport\n startedAt: string\n endedAt: string\n}\n\n// ── Implementation ───────────────────────────────────────────────────────\n\nconst DEFAULT_INTEGRITY: RunIntegrityExpectations = {\n llmSpansMin: 1,\n requireRawCoverageOfLlmSpans: true,\n requireOutcome: true,\n}\n\nconst DEFAULT_ROUTE: LlmRouteRequirements = {\n requireExplicitBaseUrl: true,\n requireAuth: true,\n}\n\nexport async function runEvalCampaign<V>(\n opts: EvalCampaignOptions<V>,\n): Promise<EvalCampaignResult> {\n // ── Preflight ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────\n assertLlmRoute(opts.llmOpts, opts.routeRequirements ?? DEFAULT_ROUTE)\n\n if (opts.variants.length === 0) {\n throw new Error('runEvalCampaign: variants must be non-empty.')\n }\n if (opts.scenarios.length === 0) {\n throw new Error('runEvalCampaign: scenarios must be non-empty.')\n }\n const variantIds = new Set<string>()\n for (const v of opts.variants) {\n if (variantIds.has(v.id)) {\n throw new Error(`runEvalCampaign: duplicate variant id \"${v.id}\".`)\n }\n variantIds.add(v.id)\n }\n const scenarioIds = new Set<string>()\n for (const s of opts.scenarios) {\n if (scenarioIds.has(s.scenarioId)) {\n throw new Error(`runEvalCampaign: duplicate scenarioId \"${s.scenarioId}\".`)\n }\n scenarioIds.add(s.scenarioId)\n }\n if (opts.report?.comparator && !variantIds.has(opts.report.comparator)) {\n throw new Error(\n `runEvalCampaign: report.comparator \"${opts.report.comparator}\" is not a configured variantId.`,\n )\n }\n if (!opts.commitSha) {\n throw new Error('runEvalCampaign: commitSha is required (every RunRecord needs it).')\n }\n\n const seeds = opts.seeds ?? [0, 1, 2]\n const splitTag: RunSplitTag = opts.splitTag ?? 'holdout'\n const concurrency = Math.max(1, opts.concurrency ?? 1)\n const integrity = { ...DEFAULT_INTEGRITY, ...(opts.integrity ?? {}) }\n const onIntegrityFailure: CampaignIntegrityPolicy = opts.onIntegrityFailure ?? 'mark_failed'\n const now = opts.now ?? (() => Date.now())\n const baseUrl = (opts.llmOpts.baseUrl ?? '').replace(/\\/+$/, '')\n const provider = opts.llmOpts.provider ?? null\n const preregistrationHash = opts.preregistrationHash ?? null\n\n const rawSinkFactory = opts.rawSinkFactory ?? defaultRawSinkFactory(opts.workDir)\n\n // ── Fingerprint ────────────────────────────────────────────────────\n const campaignFingerprint = await hashJson(\n canonicalize({\n campaignId: opts.campaignId,\n variants: opts.variants.map((v) => v.id).sort(),\n scenarios: opts.scenarios.map((s) => s.scenarioId).sort(),\n seeds: [...seeds].sort((a, b) => a - b),\n splitTag,\n comparator: opts.report?.comparator ?? null,\n baseUrl,\n provider,\n preregistrationHash,\n }),\n )\n\n // ── Plan the matrix ────────────────────────────────────────────────\n type Cell = { variant: CampaignVariant<V>; scenario: CampaignScenario; seed: number }\n const cells: Cell[] = []\n for (const variant of opts.variants) {\n for (const scenario of opts.scenarios) {\n for (const seed of seeds) {\n cells.push({ variant, scenario, seed })\n }\n }\n }\n\n const startedAt = new Date(now()).toISOString()\n const runs: RunRecord[] = []\n const integrityReports: RunIntegrityReport[] = []\n const failedRuns: FailedRun[] = []\n\n // ── Execute (bounded-concurrency worker pool) ──────────────────────\n let cursor = 0\n async function worker(): Promise<void> {\n while (true) {\n const i = cursor++\n if (i >= cells.length) return\n const cell = cells[i]!\n try {\n const result = await runOneCell(cell)\n runs.push(result.record)\n integrityReports.push(result.integrity)\n } catch (err) {\n if (err instanceof CellExecutionError) {\n failedRuns.push(err.failed)\n if (err.integrity) integrityReports.push(err.integrity)\n } else {\n // Genuine bug — not a runner failure, not an integrity failure.\n // Surface it; don't silently mask.\n throw err\n }\n }\n }\n }\n\n async function runOneCell(\n cell: Cell,\n ): Promise<{ record: RunRecord; integrity: RunIntegrityReport }> {\n const runId = (opts.runId ?? defaultRunId)({\n campaignId: opts.campaignId,\n runId: '', // unused by default generator\n variantId: cell.variant.id,\n scenarioId: cell.scenario.scenarioId,\n seed: cell.seed,\n })\n const factoryParams: CampaignFactoryParams = {\n campaignId: opts.campaignId,\n runId,\n variantId: cell.variant.id,\n scenarioId: cell.scenario.scenarioId,\n seed: cell.seed,\n }\n const store = opts.storeFactory(factoryParams)\n const rawSink = rawSinkFactory(factoryParams)\n\n const emitter = new TraceEmitter(store, {\n runId,\n now: opts.now,\n onRunComplete: opts.onRunComplete,\n })\n\n const llmOpts: LlmClientOptions = {\n ...opts.llmOpts,\n rawSink,\n traceContext: { runId },\n }\n\n const ctx: CampaignRunContext<V> = {\n runId,\n experimentId: opts.campaignId,\n variant: cell.variant.payload,\n variantId: cell.variant.id,\n scenarioId: cell.scenario.scenarioId,\n scenarioTags: cell.scenario.tags ?? {},\n seed: cell.seed,\n splitTag,\n emitter,\n store,\n rawSink,\n llmOpts,\n }\n\n const wallStart = now()\n let outcome: CampaignRunOutcome\n try {\n outcome = await opts.runner(ctx)\n } catch (err) {\n const message = err instanceof Error ? err.message : String(err)\n // The runner threw mid-execution; give it a chance to have aborted.\n try {\n await emitter.abortRun(message)\n } catch {\n // Already aborted/ended; ignore.\n }\n throw new CellExecutionError({\n runId,\n variantId: cell.variant.id,\n scenarioId: cell.scenario.scenarioId,\n seed: cell.seed,\n reason: 'runner_threw',\n error: message,\n })\n }\n const wallMs = now() - wallStart\n\n const integrityReport = await assertRunCaptured(store, runId, { ...integrity, rawSink })\n if (!integrityReport.ok) {\n switch (onIntegrityFailure) {\n case 'throw':\n throw new RunIntegrityError(integrityReport)\n case 'mark_failed':\n throw new CellExecutionError(\n {\n runId,\n variantId: cell.variant.id,\n scenarioId: cell.scenario.scenarioId,\n seed: cell.seed,\n reason: 'integrity_failed',\n error: integrityReport.issues.map((i) => i.code).join(', '),\n },\n integrityReport,\n )\n case 'log':\n // Caller wants the run admitted with a flagged report; fall through.\n break\n }\n }\n\n const recordOutcome: RunOutcome = {\n raw: outcome.raw ?? {},\n }\n if (splitTag === 'holdout') recordOutcome.holdoutScore = outcome.score\n else recordOutcome.searchScore = outcome.score\n if (outcome.judgeScores !== undefined) recordOutcome.judgeScores = outcome.judgeScores\n\n const record: RunRecord = {\n runId,\n experimentId: opts.campaignId,\n candidateId: cell.variant.id,\n seed: cell.seed,\n model: outcome.model,\n promptHash: outcome.promptHash,\n configHash: outcome.configHash,\n commitSha: opts.commitSha,\n wallMs,\n costUsd: outcome.costUsd,\n tokenUsage: outcome.tokenUsage,\n judgeMetadata: outcome.judgeMetadata,\n outcome: recordOutcome,\n ...(outcome.failureClass ? { failureClass: outcome.failureClass } : {}),\n failureMode: outcome.failureMode,\n splitTag,\n scenarioId: cell.scenario.scenarioId,\n }\n const profileSource =\n outcome.agentProfile ??\n (typeof opts.agentProfile === 'function'\n ? await opts.agentProfile({\n campaignId: opts.campaignId,\n runId,\n variantId: cell.variant.id,\n scenarioId: cell.scenario.scenarioId,\n seed: cell.seed,\n variant: cell.variant.payload,\n scenarioTags: cell.scenario.tags ?? {},\n })\n : opts.agentProfile)\n if (profileSource !== undefined) {\n const agentProfile = await resolveAgentProfileCell(profileSource)\n assertAgentProfileMatchesRun(agentProfile, outcome.model, outcome.promptHash)\n record.agentProfile = agentProfile\n }\n return { record: validateRunRecord(record), integrity: integrityReport }\n }\n\n const workers = Array.from({ length: Math.min(concurrency, cells.length) }, () => worker())\n await Promise.all(workers)\n\n // ── Optional research report ───────────────────────────────────────\n let report: ResearchReport | undefined\n if (opts.report) {\n const reportOpts: ResearchReportOptions = {\n ...opts.report,\n comparator: opts.report.comparator,\n split: splitTag === 'dev' ? 'search' : splitTag,\n generatedAt: new Date(now()).toISOString(),\n preregistrationHash: preregistrationHash ?? undefined,\n }\n report = await researchReport(runs, reportOpts)\n }\n\n const endedAt = new Date(now()).toISOString()\n\n return {\n campaignId: opts.campaignId,\n campaignFingerprint,\n preregistrationHash,\n runs,\n integrityReports,\n failedRuns,\n report,\n startedAt,\n endedAt,\n }\n}\n\n// ── Internal ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────\n\nclass CellExecutionError extends Error {\n readonly failed: FailedRun\n readonly integrity?: RunIntegrityReport\n constructor(failed: FailedRun, integrity?: RunIntegrityReport) {\n super(`cell ${failed.variantId}/${failed.scenarioId}@${failed.seed} failed: ${failed.reason}`)\n this.failed = failed\n this.integrity = integrity\n }\n}\n\nfunction defaultRawSinkFactory(workDir: string | undefined) {\n return (params: CampaignFactoryParams): RawProviderSink => {\n if (!workDir) {\n throw new Error(\n 'runEvalCampaign: rawSinkFactory not supplied and workDir not set. Pass either to enable raw provider capture, or pass `new NoopRawProviderSink()` via rawSinkFactory to opt out explicitly.',\n )\n }\n return new FileSystemRawProviderSink({\n dir: `${workDir}/raw-events/${params.runId}`,\n })\n }\n}\n\nasync function resolveAgentProfileCell(\n input: AgentProfileCell | AgentProfileCellInput,\n): Promise<AgentProfileCell> {\n if (isAgentProfileCell(input)) {\n if (!(await verifyAgentProfileCell(input))) {\n throw new Error(`runEvalCampaign: agentProfile.cellId does not match its content`)\n }\n return input\n }\n return buildAgentProfileCell(input)\n}\n\nfunction isAgentProfileCell(\n input: AgentProfileCell | AgentProfileCellInput,\n): input is AgentProfileCell {\n return 'schemaVersion' in input && 'cellId' in input\n}\n\nfunction assertAgentProfileMatchesRun(\n profile: AgentProfileCell,\n model: string,\n promptHash: string,\n): void {\n if (profile.model !== undefined && profile.model !== model) {\n throw new Error(\n `runEvalCampaign: agentProfile.model \"${profile.model}\" does not match outcome.model \"${model}\"`,\n )\n }\n if (profile.promptHash !== undefined && profile.promptHash !== promptHash) {\n throw new Error(\n `runEvalCampaign: agentProfile.promptHash \"${profile.promptHash}\" does not match outcome.promptHash \"${promptHash}\"`,\n )\n }\n}\n\nfunction defaultRunId(params: CampaignFactoryParams): string {\n // Stable across re-runs: fingerprint of (campaignId, variantId, scenarioId, seed).\n // Caller can override via opts.runId for non-deterministic IDs.\n const base = `${params.campaignId}::${params.variantId}::${params.scenarioId}::${params.seed}`\n // Lightweight hex: we don't need crypto-grade here, just stability + uniqueness.\n let h1 = 0x811c9dc5\n let h2 = 0x12345678\n for (let i = 0; i < base.length; i++) {\n const c = base.charCodeAt(i)\n h1 = Math.imul(h1 ^ c, 0x01000193) >>> 0\n h2 = Math.imul(h2 ^ c, 0x9e3779b1) >>> 0\n }\n return `run-${h1.toString(16).padStart(8, '0')}${h2.toString(16).padStart(8, 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- {"version":3,"sources":["../src/judge-calibration.ts","../src/statistics.ts"],"sourcesContent":["/**\n * Judge calibration — measure judge quality against human gold + bias.\n *\n * Workflow:\n * 1. Build a golden set: {itemId, humanScore}[].\n * 2. Run candidate judges; each produces {itemId, score}.\n * 3. `calibrateJudge(golden, candidate)` reports κ + Pearson + MAE.\n * 4. `calibrateJudgeContinuous(golden, candidate)` adds quadratic-weighted\n * κ over the un-rounded [0,1] scores plus ICC(2,1), Pearson, Spearman,\n * and bootstrap CIs — use this for fine-grained judges where rounding\n * to int discards information (e.g. 0.78 vs 0.81 both round to 1 and\n * look \"perfectly agreed\" to integer κ).\n * 5. Run bias probes (positional, verbosity, self-preference) to\n * detect systematic score inflation.\n * 6. For N≥2 judges on the same items, `continuousAgreement(scores)`\n * reports ICC(2,1) + κ_w + Pearson + Spearman with bootstrap CIs.\n *\n * Returns actionable diagnostics, not a single number. Consumers then\n * decide whether to trust the judge, retrain it, or add a tie-breaker.\n */\n\nexport interface GoldenItem {\n itemId: string\n humanScore: number\n /** Optional group used for per-group bias audits (e.g. model-of-output family). */\n group?: string\n}\n\nexport interface CandidateScore {\n itemId: string\n score: number\n /** Optional — enables positional-bias analysis (did order matter?). */\n positionOfAInput?: 'first' | 'second'\n}\n\nexport interface CalibrationResult {\n n: number\n pearson: number\n /** Cohen's κ with quadratic weights over integer-rounded scores. */\n kappa: number\n /** Mean absolute error vs human. */\n mae: number\n /** Worst-5 miscalibrations (largest |judge - human|). */\n worstItems: Array<{ itemId: string; judge: number; human: number; delta: number }>\n}\n\nexport function calibrateJudge(\n golden: GoldenItem[],\n candidate: CandidateScore[],\n): CalibrationResult {\n const map = new Map<string, { h: number; j: number }>()\n for (const g of golden) map.set(g.itemId, { h: g.humanScore, j: NaN })\n for (const c of candidate) {\n const entry = map.get(c.itemId)\n if (entry) entry.j = c.score\n }\n const common = [...map.values()].filter((v) => Number.isFinite(v.j))\n const n = common.length\n if (n < 2) {\n return { n, pearson: NaN, kappa: NaN, mae: NaN, worstItems: [] }\n }\n const humans = common.map((c) => c.h)\n const judges = common.map((c) => c.j)\n const pearson = pearsonR(humans, judges)\n const kappa = weightedKappa(humans.map(Math.round), judges.map(Math.round))\n const absDiffs = common.map((c) => Math.abs(c.j - c.h))\n const mae = absDiffs.reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0) / n\n const worst = [...map.entries()]\n .filter(([, v]) => Number.isFinite(v.j))\n .map(([itemId, v]) => ({ itemId, judge: v.j, human: v.h, delta: Math.abs(v.j - v.h) }))\n .sort((a, b) => b.delta - a.delta)\n .slice(0, 5)\n return { n, pearson, kappa, mae, worstItems: worst }\n}\n\nexport interface PositionalBiasResult {\n /**\n * Score delta (first-position - second-position) averaged across items\n * presented in both positions. Non-zero = positional bias.\n */\n avgDelta: number\n n: number\n}\n\n/**\n * Feed the same items to the judge twice with A/B swapped and pass all\n * results here. Items that don't appear in both positions are ignored.\n */\nexport function positionalBias(scores: CandidateScore[]): PositionalBiasResult {\n const pairs = new Map<string, { first?: number; second?: number }>()\n for (const s of scores) {\n const slot = pairs.get(s.itemId) ?? {}\n if (s.positionOfAInput === 'first') slot.first = s.score\n else if (s.positionOfAInput === 'second') slot.second = s.score\n pairs.set(s.itemId, slot)\n }\n const deltas: number[] = []\n for (const { first, second } of pairs.values()) {\n if (first !== undefined && second !== undefined) deltas.push(first - second)\n }\n if (deltas.length === 0) return { avgDelta: 0, n: 0 }\n return { avgDelta: deltas.reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0) / deltas.length, n: deltas.length }\n}\n\nexport interface VerbosityBiasResult {\n /** Pearson correlation between output length and score. Strong positive = verbosity bias. */\n pearson: number\n n: number\n}\n\nexport function verbosityBias(\n samples: Array<{ outputLen: number; score: number }>,\n): VerbosityBiasResult {\n const n = samples.length\n if (n < 3) return { pearson: NaN, n }\n return {\n pearson: pearsonR(\n samples.map((s) => s.outputLen),\n samples.map((s) => s.score),\n ),\n n,\n }\n}\n\nexport interface SelfPreferenceResult {\n /** Mean judge score when judge's family matches output's family. */\n inFamilyMean: number\n outOfFamilyMean: number\n deltaMean: number\n n: number\n}\n\n/**\n * Pass the same scenarios scored with judge-model X grading outputs from\n * model X (in-family) and model Y (out-of-family). Non-zero delta\n * indicates self-preference.\n */\nexport function selfPreference(\n samples: Array<{ score: number; inFamily: boolean }>,\n): SelfPreferenceResult {\n const inF = samples.filter((s) => s.inFamily).map((s) => s.score)\n const outF = samples.filter((s) => !s.inFamily).map((s) => s.score)\n if (inF.length === 0 || outF.length === 0)\n return { inFamilyMean: 0, outOfFamilyMean: 0, deltaMean: 0, n: 0 }\n const inMean = inF.reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0) / inF.length\n const outMean = outF.reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0) / outF.length\n return {\n inFamilyMean: inMean,\n outOfFamilyMean: outMean,\n deltaMean: inMean - outMean,\n n: samples.length,\n }\n}\n\n// ── Helpers ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────\n\nfunction pearsonR(a: number[], b: number[]): number {\n if (a.length !== b.length || a.length < 2) return NaN\n const mA = a.reduce((s, v) => s + v, 0) / a.length\n const mB = b.reduce((s, v) => s + v, 0) / b.length\n let num = 0,\n dA = 0,\n dB = 0\n for (let i = 0; i < a.length; i++) {\n const da = a[i]! - mA\n const db = b[i]! - mB\n num += da * db\n dA += da * da\n dB += db * db\n }\n if (dA === 0 || dB === 0) return dA === 0 && dB === 0 ? 1 : 0\n return num / Math.sqrt(dA * dB)\n}\n\n/** Quadratic weighted Cohen's κ over bounded integer scores. */\nfunction weightedKappa(a: number[], b: number[]): number {\n if (a.length !== b.length || a.length === 0) return NaN\n const min = Math.min(...a, ...b)\n const max = Math.max(...a, ...b)\n const K = max - min + 1\n if (K < 2) return 1\n const observed: number[][] = Array.from({ length: K }, () => new Array(K).fill(0))\n const rowMarg = new Array(K).fill(0)\n const colMarg = new Array(K).fill(0)\n for (let i = 0; i < a.length; i++) {\n const ai = a[i]! - min\n const bi = b[i]! - min\n const row = observed[ai]!\n row[bi] = (row[bi] ?? 0) + 1\n rowMarg[ai]++\n colMarg[bi]++\n }\n let num = 0\n let den = 0\n for (let i = 0; i < K; i++) {\n for (let j = 0; j < K; j++) {\n const w = (i - j) ** 2 / (K - 1) ** 2\n const expected = (rowMarg[i] * colMarg[j]) / a.length\n num += w * observed[i]![j]!\n den += w * expected\n }\n }\n if (den === 0) return 1\n return 1 - num / den\n}\n\n// ── Continuous-value inter-rater agreement ──────────────────────────\n//\n// `weightedKappa` above quantises to integers. For [0,1] judges that is\n// lossy: 0.78 and 0.81 both round to 1 and look identical to integer κ.\n// `continuousAgreement` keeps the original magnitudes:\n//\n// - κ_w : Cohen's weighted κ generalised to continuous scores. For two\n// raters, weighted κ = 1 − Σ w_ij·o_ij / Σ w_ij·e_ij collapses\n// into the closed form below when each \"category\" is the score\n// itself (Janson & Olsson 2001; Cohen 1968 quadratic weights).\n// - ICC : Intraclass Correlation Coefficient, ICC(2,1) per Shrout &\n// Fleiss (1979) — two-way random effects, absolute agreement,\n// single rater. The right reliability coefficient when judges\n// are a random sample of the judge population.\n// - r, ρ : Pearson + Spearman for sanity-check. Pearson catches linear\n// association regardless of scale; Spearman catches monotone\n// association regardless of distribution.\n// - CIs : Bootstrap percentile CIs over items (rows). Bias is preserved\n// because we resample the full row, i.e. a judge's vector\n// stays internally consistent within each bootstrap replicate.\n//\n// References:\n// - Shrout, P. E. & Fleiss, J. L. (1979). Intraclass correlations: uses\n// in assessing rater reliability. Psychological Bulletin, 86(2), 420.\n// - McGraw, K. O. & Wong, S. P. (1996). Forming inferences about some\n// intraclass correlation coefficients. Psychological Methods, 1, 30.\n// - Janson, H. & Olsson, U. (2001). A measure of agreement for interval\n// or nominal multivariate observations. Educ. Psychol. Meas., 61, 277.\n\nexport interface ContinuousAgreement {\n /** Cohen's κ_w with quadratic weights, computed on raw [0,1] scores. */\n weightedKappa: number\n /** ICC(2,1): two-way random effects, absolute agreement, single rater. */\n icc: number\n /** Pearson product-moment correlation (averaged over rater pairs if N>2). */\n pearson: number\n /** Spearman rank correlation (averaged over rater pairs if N>2). */\n spearman: number\n /** 95% bootstrap percentile CIs over items. */\n ci: {\n icc: [number, number]\n weightedKappa: [number, number]\n }\n /** Number of complete items (no NaN across raters). */\n n: number\n /** Number of raters. */\n raters: number\n}\n\nexport interface ContinuousAgreementOptions {\n /** Bootstrap iterations. Default 1000. Set to 0 to skip CIs (CI = [NaN, NaN]). */\n bootstrap?: number\n /** κ weighting scheme. Default 'quadratic'. */\n weights?: 'linear' | 'quadratic'\n /** PRNG seed for reproducible bootstrap. Default 0xC0FFEE. */\n seed?: number\n /** Confidence level for percentile CI. Default 0.95. */\n ciLevel?: number\n}\n\n/**\n * Inter-rater agreement on continuous (typically [0,1]) scores.\n *\n * `scores` has shape [n_items][n_raters]. Rows with any non-finite entry\n * are dropped. Returns NaN metrics if fewer than 2 raters or 2 complete\n * items remain.\n */\nexport function continuousAgreement(\n scores: number[][],\n opts: ContinuousAgreementOptions = {},\n): ContinuousAgreement {\n const bootstrap = opts.bootstrap ?? 1000\n const weights = opts.weights ?? 'quadratic'\n const seed = opts.seed ?? 0xc0ffee\n const ciLevel = opts.ciLevel ?? 0.95\n\n const matrix = scores.filter((row) => row.length >= 2 && row.every((v) => Number.isFinite(v)))\n const raters = matrix[0]?.length ?? 0\n // All rows must have the same rater count, else drop the offenders.\n const clean = matrix.filter((row) => row.length === raters)\n const nClean = clean.length\n\n if (nClean < 2 || raters < 2) {\n return {\n weightedKappa: NaN,\n icc: NaN,\n pearson: NaN,\n spearman: NaN,\n ci: { icc: [NaN, NaN], weightedKappa: [NaN, NaN] },\n n: nClean,\n raters,\n }\n }\n\n const kappa = continuousWeightedKappa(clean, weights)\n const icc = icc21(clean)\n const pearson = avgPairwise(clean, pearsonR)\n const spearman = avgPairwise(clean, spearmanR)\n\n const ciIcc: [number, number] = [NaN, NaN]\n const ciKappa: [number, number] = [NaN, NaN]\n if (bootstrap > 0) {\n const rng = mulberry32(seed)\n const iccs: number[] = []\n const kappas: number[] = []\n for (let b = 0; b < bootstrap; b++) {\n const sample: number[][] = new Array(nClean)\n for (let i = 0; i < nClean; i++) {\n sample[i] = clean[Math.floor(rng() * nClean)]!\n }\n const iccB = icc21(sample)\n const kB = continuousWeightedKappa(sample, weights)\n if (Number.isFinite(iccB)) iccs.push(iccB)\n if (Number.isFinite(kB)) kappas.push(kB)\n }\n const [lo, hi] = percentileBounds(ciLevel)\n if (iccs.length > 0) {\n iccs.sort((a, b) => a - b)\n ciIcc[0] = quantile(iccs, lo)\n ciIcc[1] = quantile(iccs, hi)\n }\n if (kappas.length > 0) {\n kappas.sort((a, b) => a - b)\n ciKappa[0] = quantile(kappas, lo)\n ciKappa[1] = quantile(kappas, hi)\n }\n }\n\n return {\n weightedKappa: kappa,\n icc,\n pearson,\n spearman,\n ci: { icc: ciIcc, weightedKappa: ciKappa },\n n: nClean,\n raters,\n }\n}\n\nexport interface ContinuousCalibrationResult extends CalibrationResult {\n /** Cohen's κ_w computed on raw (un-rounded) scores. */\n weightedKappaContinuous: number\n /** ICC(2,1) treating golden + candidate as two raters. */\n icc: number\n spearman: number\n ci: {\n icc: [number, number]\n weightedKappa: [number, number]\n }\n}\n\n/**\n * Drop-in superset of `calibrateJudge` that adds continuous-value\n * agreement metrics. The old fields (n, pearson, kappa, mae, worstItems)\n * are preserved unchanged so existing callers continue to work.\n */\nexport function calibrateJudgeContinuous(\n golden: GoldenItem[],\n candidate: CandidateScore[],\n opts: ContinuousAgreementOptions = {},\n): ContinuousCalibrationResult {\n const base = calibrateJudge(golden, candidate)\n const map = new Map<string, { h: number; j: number }>()\n for (const g of golden) map.set(g.itemId, { h: g.humanScore, j: NaN })\n for (const c of candidate) {\n const entry = map.get(c.itemId)\n if (entry) entry.j = c.score\n }\n const rows: number[][] = []\n for (const v of map.values()) {\n if (Number.isFinite(v.j)) rows.push([v.h, v.j])\n }\n const agreement = continuousAgreement(rows, opts)\n return {\n ...base,\n weightedKappaContinuous: agreement.weightedKappa,\n icc: agreement.icc,\n spearman: agreement.spearman,\n ci: agreement.ci,\n }\n}\n\n// ── Continuous-agreement internals ──────────────────────────────────\n\n/**\n * Quadratic-weighted κ on continuous scores. With weights w(x,y) = (x-y)^2\n * (or |x-y| for linear) the formula collapses to:\n *\n * κ_w = 1 − E_obs[w] / E_exp[w]\n *\n * where E_obs averages w over paired (a_i, b_i) and E_exp averages w over\n * the independent product distribution (sum_{i,j} w(a_i, b_j) / n^2).\n * The normalisation by (max-min)^2 in the integer version cancels in the\n * ratio, so we don't need it here. Generalises to N raters by averaging κ_w\n * over all rater pairs (mean pairwise weighted agreement).\n */\nfunction continuousWeightedKappa(rows: number[][], scheme: 'linear' | 'quadratic'): number {\n if (rows.length === 0) return NaN\n const raters = rows[0]!.length\n if (raters < 2) return NaN\n const wFn =\n scheme === 'linear'\n ? (x: number, y: number) => Math.abs(x - y)\n : (x: number, y: number) => (x - y) ** 2\n let sum = 0\n let pairs = 0\n for (let r1 = 0; r1 < raters; r1++) {\n for (let r2 = r1 + 1; r2 < raters; r2++) {\n const a = rows.map((row) => row[r1]!)\n const b = rows.map((row) => row[r2]!)\n const n = a.length\n let obs = 0\n for (let i = 0; i < n; i++) obs += wFn(a[i]!, b[i]!)\n obs /= n\n // Expected under independence: average of w over all i,j cross pairs.\n let exp = 0\n for (let i = 0; i < n; i++) {\n for (let j = 0; j < n; j++) exp += wFn(a[i]!, b[j]!)\n }\n exp /= n * n\n if (exp === 0) {\n // Degenerate: at least one rater is constant. Convention: perfect\n // agreement iff observed disagreement is also zero, else 0.\n sum += obs === 0 ? 1 : 0\n } else {\n sum += 1 - obs / exp\n }\n pairs++\n }\n }\n return pairs === 0 ? NaN : sum / pairs\n}\n\n/**\n * ICC(2,1) — two-way random effects, absolute agreement, single rater.\n *\n * ICC(2,1) = (MSR − MSE) / (MSR + (k−1)·MSE + k·(MSC − MSE)/n)\n *\n * where MSR = between-rows MS, MSC = between-columns MS, MSE = residual MS,\n * n = rows (items), k = columns (raters).\n */\nfunction icc21(rows: number[][]): number {\n const n = rows.length\n if (n < 2) return NaN\n const k = rows[0]!.length\n if (k < 2) return NaN\n\n // Row means.\n const rowMeans = rows.map((row) => row.reduce((s, v) => s + v, 0) / k)\n // Column means.\n const colMeans = new Array(k).fill(0)\n for (let j = 0; j < k; j++) {\n let s = 0\n for (let i = 0; i < n; i++) s += rows[i]![j]!\n colMeans[j] = s / n\n }\n // Grand mean.\n let grand = 0\n for (let i = 0; i < n; i++) grand += rowMeans[i]!\n grand /= n\n\n let ssR = 0\n for (let i = 0; i < n; i++) ssR += (rowMeans[i]! - grand) ** 2\n ssR *= k\n let ssC = 0\n for (let j = 0; j < k; j++) ssC += (colMeans[j]! - grand) ** 2\n ssC *= n\n let ssT = 0\n for (let i = 0; i < n; i++) {\n for (let j = 0; j < k; j++) ssT += (rows[i]![j]! - grand) ** 2\n }\n const ssE = ssT - ssR - ssC\n\n const dfR = n - 1\n const dfC = k - 1\n const dfE = (n - 1) * (k - 1)\n const msR = ssR / dfR\n const msC = ssC / dfC\n const msE = dfE > 0 ? ssE / dfE : 0\n\n const denom = msR + (k - 1) * msE + (k * (msC - msE)) / n\n if (denom === 0) {\n // Degenerate (all values equal): convention = 1 if rows identical,\n // else 0. Identical rows ⇒ msR = 0 too, so msR − msE near 0.\n return msR === 0 && msE === 0 ? 1 : 0\n }\n return (msR - msE) / denom\n}\n\n/** Average pairwise statistic over all rater pairs. */\nfunction avgPairwise(rows: number[][], fn: (a: number[], b: number[]) => number): number {\n const k = rows[0]?.length ?? 0\n if (k < 2) return NaN\n let sum = 0\n let pairs = 0\n for (let i = 0; i < k; i++) {\n for (let j = i + 1; j < k; j++) {\n const a = rows.map((row) => row[i]!)\n const b = rows.map((row) => row[j]!)\n const r = fn(a, b)\n if (Number.isFinite(r)) {\n sum += r\n pairs++\n }\n }\n }\n return pairs === 0 ? NaN : sum / pairs\n}\n\n/** Spearman rank correlation. Ties get average ranks. */\nfunction spearmanR(a: number[], b: number[]): number {\n if (a.length !== b.length || a.length < 2) return NaN\n return pearsonR(rankWithTies(a), rankWithTies(b))\n}\n\nfunction rankWithTies(xs: number[]): number[] {\n const n = xs.length\n const indexed = xs.map((v, i) => ({ v, i }))\n indexed.sort((x, y) => x.v - y.v)\n const ranks = new Array(n).fill(0)\n let i = 0\n while (i < n) {\n let j = i\n while (j + 1 < n && indexed[j + 1]!.v === indexed[i]!.v) j++\n // Average rank for ties (ranks are 1-indexed).\n const avg = (i + j) / 2 + 1\n for (let k = i; k <= j; k++) ranks[indexed[k]!.i] = avg\n i = j + 1\n }\n return ranks\n}\n\n/** Seeded PRNG — Mulberry32. Deterministic across platforms. */\nfunction mulberry32(seed: number): () => number {\n let a = seed >>> 0\n return () => {\n a = (a + 0x6d2b79f5) >>> 0\n let t = a\n t = Math.imul(t ^ (t >>> 15), t | 1)\n t ^= t + Math.imul(t ^ (t >>> 7), t | 61)\n return ((t ^ (t >>> 14)) >>> 0) / 4294967296\n }\n}\n\nfunction percentileBounds(ciLevel: number): [number, number] {\n const tail = (1 - ciLevel) / 2\n return [tail, 1 - tail]\n}\n\n/** Linear-interpolated quantile of a pre-sorted ascending array. */\nfunction quantile(sorted: number[], q: number): number {\n if (sorted.length === 0) return NaN\n if (sorted.length === 1) return sorted[0]!\n const pos = q * (sorted.length - 1)\n const lo = Math.floor(pos)\n const hi = Math.ceil(pos)\n if (lo === hi) return sorted[lo]!\n const frac = pos - lo\n return sorted[lo]! * (1 - frac) + sorted[hi]! * frac\n}\n","import { ValidationError } from './errors'\nimport {\n type ContinuousAgreement,\n type ContinuousAgreementOptions,\n continuousAgreement,\n} from './judge-calibration'\nimport type { JudgeScore } from './types'\n\n/** Identity: dimensions already follow \"higher = better\" by prompt convention\n * (inverted dims like hallucination are scored 10 = best at the source). */\nexport const normalizeScores = (scores: JudgeScore[]): JudgeScore[] => scores\n\n/** Weighted mean — falls back to uniform weights when omitted */\nexport function weightedMean(scores: { score: number; weight?: number }[]): number {\n if (scores.length === 0) return 0\n let totalWeight = 0\n let weightedSum = 0\n for (const { score, weight } of scores) {\n const w = weight ?? 1\n weightedSum += score * w\n totalWeight += w\n }\n return totalWeight > 0 ? weightedSum / totalWeight : 0\n}\n\n/** Bootstrap confidence interval */\nexport function confidenceInterval(\n scores: number[],\n confidence = 0.95,\n opts: { seed?: number; resamples?: number } = {},\n): { mean: number; lower: number; upper: number } {\n if (scores.length === 0) return { mean: 0, lower: 0, upper: 0 }\n if (scores.length === 1) return { mean: scores[0]!, lower: scores[0]!, upper: scores[0]! }\n\n const n = scores.length\n const mean = scores.reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0) / n\n\n const B = opts.resamples ?? 1000\n const rng = makeRng(opts.seed)\n const bootstrapMeans: number[] = []\n\n for (let i = 0; i < B; i++) {\n let sum = 0\n for (let j = 0; j < n; j++) {\n sum += scores[Math.floor(rng() * n)]!\n }\n bootstrapMeans.push(sum / n)\n }\n\n bootstrapMeans.sort((a, b) => a - b)\n\n const alpha = 1 - confidence\n const lowerIdx = Math.floor((alpha / 2) * B)\n const upperIdx = Math.floor((1 - alpha / 2) * B) - 1\n\n return {\n mean,\n lower: bootstrapMeans[lowerIdx]!,\n upper: bootstrapMeans[Math.min(upperIdx, B - 1)]!,\n }\n}\n\n/**\n * Inter-rater reliability — simplified Krippendorff's alpha.\n *\n * Each inner array is one judge's scores for all items.\n * All arrays must have the same length (same items scored).\n */\nexport function interRaterReliability(judgeScores: JudgeScore[][]): number {\n if (judgeScores.length < 2) return 1\n\n // Group scores by dimension across judges\n const dimensionMap = new Map<string, number[][]>()\n for (const judgeSet of judgeScores) {\n for (const s of judgeSet) {\n if (!dimensionMap.has(s.dimension)) dimensionMap.set(s.dimension, [])\n const arr = dimensionMap.get(s.dimension)!\n if (arr.length === 0 || arr[arr.length - 1]!.length >= judgeScores.length) {\n arr.push([s.score])\n } else {\n arr[arr.length - 1]!.push(s.score)\n }\n }\n }\n\n // Collect all paired ratings\n const allValues: number[] = []\n const pairDiffs: number[] = []\n\n for (const items of dimensionMap.values()) {\n for (const ratings of items) {\n if (ratings.length < 2) continue\n for (const v of ratings) allValues.push(v)\n for (let i = 0; i < ratings.length; i++) {\n for (let j = i + 1; j < ratings.length; j++) {\n pairDiffs.push((ratings[i]! - ratings[j]!) ** 2)\n }\n }\n }\n }\n\n if (pairDiffs.length === 0 || allValues.length < 2) return 1\n\n const observedDisagreement = pairDiffs.reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0) / pairDiffs.length\n\n // Expected disagreement from all possible pairings of values\n let expectedDisagreement = 0\n let expectedCount = 0\n for (let i = 0; i < allValues.length; i++) {\n for (let j = i + 1; j < allValues.length; j++) {\n expectedDisagreement += (allValues[i]! - allValues[j]!) ** 2\n expectedCount++\n }\n }\n expectedDisagreement = expectedCount > 0 ? expectedDisagreement / expectedCount : 0\n\n if (expectedDisagreement === 0) return 1\n return 1 - observedDisagreement / expectedDisagreement\n}\n\n/**\n * Mann-Whitney U test for comparing two independent groups.\n * Returns U statistic and approximate p-value (normal approximation).\n */\nexport function mannWhitneyU(a: number[], b: number[]): { u: number; p: number } {\n if (a.length === 0 || b.length === 0) return { u: 0, p: 1 }\n\n const n1 = a.length\n const n2 = b.length\n\n // Rank all values together\n const combined = [\n ...a.map((v) => ({ v, group: 'a' as const })),\n ...b.map((v) => ({ v, group: 'b' as const })),\n ].sort((x, y) => x.v - y.v)\n\n // Assign ranks with tie handling\n const ranks: number[] = new Array(combined.length)\n let i = 0\n while (i < combined.length) {\n let j = i\n while (j < combined.length && combined[j]!.v === combined[i]!.v) j++\n const avgRank = (i + 1 + j) / 2\n for (let k = i; k < j; k++) ranks[k] = avgRank\n i = j\n }\n\n // Sum ranks for group a\n let r1 = 0\n for (let k = 0; k < combined.length; k++) {\n if (combined[k]!.group === 'a') r1 += ranks[k]!\n }\n\n const u1 = r1 - (n1 * (n1 + 1)) / 2\n const u2 = n1 * n2 - u1\n const u = Math.min(u1, u2)\n\n // Normal approximation for p-value\n const mu = (n1 * n2) / 2\n const sigma = Math.sqrt((n1 * n2 * (n1 + n2 + 1)) / 12)\n\n if (sigma === 0) return { u, p: 1 }\n\n const z = Math.abs(u - mu) / sigma\n // Two-tailed p-value from z-score (approximation)\n const p = 2 * (1 - normalCdf(z))\n\n return { u, p }\n}\n\n/** Partial credit: returns 0-1 ratio of current toward target */\nexport function partialCredit(current: number, target: number): number {\n if (target <= 0) return 1\n return Math.min(1, Math.max(0, current / target))\n}\n\n/**\n * Paired t-test — before/after measurements on the SAME items.\n * Pairing removes inter-item variance, giving tighter significance than\n * an unpaired test when comparing prompt v1 vs prompt v2 on identical\n * scenarios.\n */\nexport function pairedTTest(\n before: number[],\n after: number[],\n): { t: number; df: number; p: number } {\n if (before.length !== after.length) {\n throw new ValidationError(\n `pairedTTest: unequal sample sizes (${before.length} vs ${after.length})`,\n )\n }\n const n = before.length\n if (n < 2) return { t: 0, df: 0, p: 1 }\n\n const diffs = before.map((b, i) => after[i]! - b)\n const mean = diffs.reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0) / n\n const variance = diffs.reduce((acc, d) => acc + (d - mean) ** 2, 0) / (n - 1)\n const se = Math.sqrt(variance / n)\n if (se === 0) return { t: mean === 0 ? 0 : Infinity, df: n - 1, p: mean === 0 ? 1 : 0 }\n\n const t = mean / se\n const df = n - 1\n const p = 2 * (1 - studentTCdf(Math.abs(t), df))\n return { t, df, p }\n}\n\n/**\n * Wilcoxon signed-rank test — paired non-parametric alternative.\n * Use when the differences aren't normally distributed.\n */\nexport function wilcoxonSignedRank(before: number[], after: number[]): { w: number; p: number } {\n if (before.length !== after.length) {\n throw new ValidationError(\n `wilcoxonSignedRank: unequal sample sizes (${before.length} vs ${after.length})`,\n )\n }\n const diffs = before.map((b, i) => after[i]! - b).filter((d) => d !== 0)\n const n = diffs.length\n if (n < 6) return { w: 0, p: 1 }\n\n const absRanks = diffs\n .map((d, i) => ({ abs: Math.abs(d), sign: Math.sign(d), i }))\n .sort((a, b) => a.abs - b.abs)\n const ranks: number[] = new Array(n)\n let i = 0\n while (i < n) {\n let j = i\n while (j < n && absRanks[j]!.abs === absRanks[i]!.abs) j++\n const avg = (i + 1 + j) / 2\n for (let k = i; k < j; k++) ranks[absRanks[k]!.i] = avg\n i = j\n }\n let wPlus = 0\n for (let k = 0; k < n; k++) if (diffs[k]! > 0) wPlus += ranks[k]!\n\n const mean = (n * (n + 1)) / 4\n const variance = (n * (n + 1) * (2 * n + 1)) / 24\n const z = (wPlus - mean) / Math.sqrt(variance)\n const p = 2 * (1 - normalCdf(Math.abs(z)))\n return { w: wPlus, p }\n}\n\n/**\n * Cohen's d — standardized effect size for two independent groups.\n * Positive d means group b has higher mean than group a.\n * Rule of thumb: |d| < 0.2 negligible, 0.2–0.5 small, 0.5–0.8 medium, > 0.8 large.\n */\nexport function cohensD(a: number[], b: number[]): number {\n if (a.length < 2 || b.length < 2) return 0\n const meanA = a.reduce((x, y) => x + y, 0) / a.length\n const meanB = b.reduce((x, y) => x + y, 0) / b.length\n const varA = a.reduce((acc, x) => acc + (x - meanA) ** 2, 0) / (a.length - 1)\n const varB = b.reduce((acc, x) => acc + (x - meanB) ** 2, 0) / (b.length - 1)\n const pooled = Math.sqrt(\n ((a.length - 1) * varA + (b.length - 1) * varB) / (a.length + b.length - 2),\n )\n if (pooled === 0) return 0\n return (meanB - meanA) / pooled\n}\n\nexport type CliffsMagnitude = 'negligible' | 'small' | 'medium' | 'large'\n\n/**\n * Cliff's delta — a non-parametric effect size for two independent samples.\n * `δ = (#(after > before) − #(after < before)) / (n_before · n_after)`,\n * ranging [-1, 1]. Positive ⇒ `after` tends to exceed `before` (improvement).\n *\n * Distribution-free counterpart to Cohen's d: no normality assumption, robust\n * to the bounded/skewed score distributions judges produce. Pairs with\n * `pairedBootstrap` / `wilcoxonSignedRank` for the non-parametric reporting\n * path. Returns 0 when either sample is empty.\n */\nexport function cliffsDelta(before: number[], after: number[]): number {\n const n = before.length * after.length\n if (n === 0) return 0\n let dominance = 0\n for (const a of after) {\n for (const b of before) {\n if (a > b) dominance += 1\n else if (a < b) dominance -= 1\n }\n }\n return dominance / n\n}\n\n/**\n * Map a Cliff's delta to a qualitative magnitude using the standard\n * Romano et al. thresholds (|δ|): <0.147 negligible, <0.33 small,\n * <0.474 medium, else large.\n */\nexport function interpretCliffs(delta: number): CliffsMagnitude {\n const d = Math.abs(delta)\n if (d < 0.147) return 'negligible'\n if (d < 0.33) return 'small'\n if (d < 0.474) return 'medium'\n return 'large'\n}\n\nexport interface WeightedCompositeInput {\n /** Per-dimension scores (typically 0..1). */\n dims: Record<string, number>\n /** Weight per dimension. Every weighted dimension MUST be present in\n * `dims` — a weight for an absent dimension is a config error and throws,\n * because silently dropping it would renormalise the composite onto a\n * different denominator than intended. */\n weights: Record<string, number>\n /** Optional pass threshold; when set, the result reports `pass`. */\n threshold?: number\n}\n\nexport interface WeightedCompositeResult {\n composite: number\n pass?: boolean\n}\n\n/**\n * Weighted composite over judge dimensions: `Σ(score_d · w_d) / Σ(w_d)` across\n * the weighted dimensions. The canonical replacement for the per-consumer\n * hand-rolled composite math (tax/legal/creative/gtm each ship a copy).\n *\n * Fail-loud: throws if a weighted dimension is missing from `dims`, if any\n * weight is negative, or if the weights sum to 0 — none of which can produce\n * a meaningful composite.\n */\nexport function weightedComposite(input: WeightedCompositeInput): WeightedCompositeResult {\n const entries = Object.entries(input.weights)\n if (entries.length === 0) {\n throw new Error('weightedComposite: `weights` is empty — nothing to combine')\n }\n let weightedSum = 0\n let weightTotal = 0\n for (const [dim, weight] of entries) {\n if (weight < 0) {\n throw new Error(`weightedComposite: weight for '${dim}' is negative (${weight})`)\n }\n if (!(dim in input.dims)) {\n throw new Error(\n `weightedComposite: weighted dimension '${dim}' is absent from \\`dims\\` — ` +\n 'refusing to renormalise onto a different denominator',\n )\n }\n weightedSum += input.dims[dim]! * weight\n weightTotal += weight\n }\n if (weightTotal === 0) {\n throw new Error('weightedComposite: weights sum to 0 — composite is undefined')\n }\n const composite = weightedSum / weightTotal\n return input.threshold === undefined\n ? { composite }\n : { composite, pass: composite >= input.threshold }\n}\n\n// ── Corpus-wide inter-rater agreement ──────────────────────────────\n//\n// The legacy `interRaterReliability(judgeScores)` computes a within-item\n// Krippendorff α — multiple judges score *the same item* and we ask\n// \"how much do their scores agree on that item?\" Useful for a single\n// scenario, but it cannot answer \"how reliable are these judges across\n// the whole evaluation corpus?\"\n//\n// `corpusInterRaterAgreement` does the corpus-wide question properly.\n// Inputs are flat per-(item, judge, dimension) score records. For each\n// dimension we pivot to a complete [n_items × n_judges] matrix and feed\n// it to the ICC(2,1) + κ_w machinery already validated in\n// `judge-calibration.ts`. An overall pooled metric averages the\n// per-dimension ICC/κ across dimensions.\n\nexport interface CorpusScoreRecord {\n /** Stable identifier for the rated item (scenario, span, turn, …). */\n itemId: string\n /** Identifier for the judge that produced this score. */\n judgeName: string\n /** Dimension name (matches `JudgeScore.dimension`). */\n dimension: string\n /** Numeric score; must be finite. */\n score: number\n}\n\nexport interface CorpusAgreementPerDimension extends ContinuousAgreement {\n dimension: string\n /** Item IDs that contributed to this dimension's matrix (every judge scored them). */\n itemIds: string[]\n /** Judge IDs that contributed to this dimension's matrix. */\n judgeIds: string[]\n}\n\nexport interface CorpusAgreementReport {\n /** Per-dimension ICC(2,1) + κ_w + Pearson + Spearman + bootstrap CIs. */\n perDimension: CorpusAgreementPerDimension[]\n /** Mean ICC across dimensions (NaN if no dimension yielded a finite ICC). */\n overallIcc: number\n /** Mean weighted κ across dimensions (NaN if none finite). */\n overallWeightedKappa: number\n /** Dimensions evaluated (sorted). */\n dimensions: string[]\n /** Judges seen across the corpus (sorted). */\n judgeIds: string[]\n}\n\nexport interface CorpusAgreementOptions extends ContinuousAgreementOptions {\n /**\n * Restrict the audit to these dimensions. Default = every dimension\n * that appears in the input. A dimension named here but absent from\n * the input throws — silent omission would corrupt the overall metric.\n */\n dimensions?: string[]\n /**\n * Restrict the audit to these judges. Default = every judge that\n * appears in the input. A judge named here but absent from a\n * dimension throws (see \"fail loud\" below).\n */\n judges?: string[]\n}\n\n/**\n * Corpus-wide inter-rater agreement across N items × M judges × D dimensions.\n *\n * For each dimension, builds the [n_items][n_judges] matrix of scores\n * (keeping only items every judge rated on that dimension), then runs\n * `continuousAgreement` to get ICC(2,1), κ_w, Pearson, Spearman, and\n * bootstrap CIs. Reports a pooled mean across dimensions as a single\n * \"is this judge panel reliable on this corpus?\" number.\n *\n * Fail-loud contract:\n * - Empty input throws.\n * - Fewer than 2 judges or fewer than 2 items per dimension throws.\n * - A judge present in some dimensions but with zero scored items on\n * another dimension throws (would silently shrink the matrix).\n * - Duplicate (itemId, judgeName, dimension) records throw.\n */\nexport function corpusInterRaterAgreement(\n records: CorpusScoreRecord[],\n opts: CorpusAgreementOptions = {},\n): CorpusAgreementReport {\n if (records.length === 0) {\n throw new ValidationError('corpusInterRaterAgreement: no score records supplied')\n }\n\n const judgesSeen = new Set<string>()\n const dimsSeen = new Set<string>()\n // dimension → judge → itemId → score\n const grid = new Map<string, Map<string, Map<string, number>>>()\n\n for (const r of records) {\n if (!Number.isFinite(r.score)) {\n throw new ValidationError(\n `corpusInterRaterAgreement: non-finite score for (item=${r.itemId}, judge=${r.judgeName}, dim=${r.dimension})`,\n )\n }\n judgesSeen.add(r.judgeName)\n dimsSeen.add(r.dimension)\n const byJudge = grid.get(r.dimension) ?? new Map<string, Map<string, number>>()\n const byItem = byJudge.get(r.judgeName) ?? new Map<string, number>()\n if (byItem.has(r.itemId)) {\n throw new ValidationError(\n `corpusInterRaterAgreement: duplicate record for (item=${r.itemId}, judge=${r.judgeName}, dim=${r.dimension})`,\n )\n }\n byItem.set(r.itemId, r.score)\n byJudge.set(r.judgeName, byItem)\n grid.set(r.dimension, byJudge)\n }\n\n const targetDims = opts.dimensions ?? [...dimsSeen].sort()\n for (const d of targetDims) {\n if (!dimsSeen.has(d)) {\n throw new ValidationError(\n `corpusInterRaterAgreement: dimension '${d}' was requested but no records carry it`,\n )\n }\n }\n const targetJudges = opts.judges ? [...opts.judges] : [...judgesSeen].sort()\n for (const j of targetJudges) {\n if (!judgesSeen.has(j)) {\n throw new ValidationError(\n `corpusInterRaterAgreement: judge '${j}' was requested but produced no records`,\n )\n }\n }\n if (targetJudges.length < 2) {\n throw new ValidationError(\n `corpusInterRaterAgreement: need ≥2 judges, got ${targetJudges.length}`,\n )\n }\n\n const perDimension: CorpusAgreementPerDimension[] = []\n const iccs: number[] = []\n const kappas: number[] = []\n\n for (const dim of targetDims) {\n const byJudge = grid.get(dim)!\n // Fail loud: every requested judge must have scored ≥1 item on this dim.\n const judgeItemCounts: Record<string, number> = {}\n for (const j of targetJudges) {\n const m = byJudge.get(j)\n judgeItemCounts[j] = m?.size ?? 0\n }\n const emptyJudges = targetJudges.filter((j) => judgeItemCounts[j] === 0)\n if (emptyJudges.length > 0) {\n throw new ValidationError(\n `corpusInterRaterAgreement: dimension '${dim}' has no scores from judge(s) ${emptyJudges.join(', ')} (counts: ${JSON.stringify(judgeItemCounts)})`,\n )\n }\n\n // Items rated by *every* requested judge on this dim.\n let commonItems: Set<string> | null = null\n for (const j of targetJudges) {\n const ids = new Set(byJudge.get(j)!.keys())\n if (commonItems === null) {\n commonItems = ids\n } else {\n const prev: Set<string> = commonItems\n commonItems = new Set([...prev].filter((x) => ids.has(x)))\n }\n }\n const sortedItems = [...(commonItems ?? new Set<string>())].sort()\n if (sortedItems.length < 2) {\n throw new ValidationError(\n `corpusInterRaterAgreement: dimension '${dim}' has ${sortedItems.length} item(s) rated by all ${targetJudges.length} judges (need ≥2)`,\n )\n }\n\n const matrix: number[][] = sortedItems.map((itemId) =>\n targetJudges.map((j) => byJudge.get(j)!.get(itemId)!),\n )\n const agreement = continuousAgreement(matrix, opts)\n perDimension.push({\n ...agreement,\n dimension: dim,\n itemIds: sortedItems,\n judgeIds: [...targetJudges],\n })\n if (Number.isFinite(agreement.icc)) iccs.push(agreement.icc)\n if (Number.isFinite(agreement.weightedKappa)) kappas.push(agreement.weightedKappa)\n }\n\n const mean = (xs: number[]) =>\n xs.length === 0 ? Number.NaN : xs.reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0) / xs.length\n return {\n perDimension,\n overallIcc: mean(iccs),\n overallWeightedKappa: mean(kappas),\n dimensions: targetDims,\n judgeIds: targetJudges,\n }\n}\n\n/**\n * Convenience adapter for `JudgeScore[]` data keyed externally by item.\n *\n * Use when you have per-item arrays of `JudgeScore[]` (e.g. one\n * `ScenarioResult.judgeScores` per scenario) and want corpus-wide\n * agreement without manually flattening. `itemId` must be unique per\n * row of `itemsScores`.\n */\nexport function corpusInterRaterAgreementFromJudgeScores(\n itemsScores: Array<{ itemId: string; scores: JudgeScore[] }>,\n opts: CorpusAgreementOptions = {},\n): CorpusAgreementReport {\n const records: CorpusScoreRecord[] = []\n const seen = new Set<string>()\n for (const { itemId, scores } of itemsScores) {\n if (seen.has(itemId)) {\n throw new ValidationError(\n `corpusInterRaterAgreementFromJudgeScores: duplicate itemId '${itemId}'`,\n )\n }\n seen.add(itemId)\n for (const s of scores) {\n records.push({\n itemId,\n judgeName: s.judgeName,\n dimension: s.dimension,\n score: s.score,\n })\n }\n }\n return corpusInterRaterAgreement(records, opts)\n}\n\n/** Student-t CDF approximation via Abramowitz-Stegun series. */\nfunction studentTCdf(t: number, df: number): number {\n if (df <= 0) return 0.5\n if (df > 100) return normalCdf(t)\n const x = df / (df + t * t)\n const a = df / 2\n const b = 0.5\n const ib = incompleteBeta(x, a, b)\n return t >= 0 ? 1 - 0.5 * ib : 0.5 * ib\n}\n\n/** Regularized incomplete beta function via continued fraction (Lentz). */\nfunction incompleteBeta(x: number, a: number, b: number): number {\n if (x <= 0) return 0\n if (x >= 1) return 1\n const lnBeta = lnGamma(a) + lnGamma(b) - lnGamma(a + b)\n const front = Math.exp(Math.log(x) * a + Math.log(1 - x) * b - lnBeta) / a\n const maxIter = 200\n const eps = 3e-7\n let c = 1\n let d = 1 - ((a + b) * x) / (a + 1)\n if (Math.abs(d) < 1e-30) d = 1e-30\n d = 1 / d\n let f = d\n for (let m = 1; m <= maxIter; m++) {\n const m2 = 2 * m\n let num = (m * (b - m) * x) / ((a + m2 - 1) * (a + m2))\n d = 1 + num * d\n if (Math.abs(d) < 1e-30) d = 1e-30\n c = 1 + num / c\n if (Math.abs(c) < 1e-30) c = 1e-30\n d = 1 / d\n f *= d * c\n num = -((a + m) * (a + b + m) * x) / ((a + m2) * (a + m2 + 1))\n d = 1 + num * d\n if (Math.abs(d) < 1e-30) d = 1e-30\n c = 1 + num / c\n if (Math.abs(c) < 1e-30) c = 1e-30\n d = 1 / d\n const delta = d * c\n f *= delta\n if (Math.abs(delta - 1) < eps) break\n }\n return front * f\n}\n\n/** Lanczos approximation to ln Γ(z). */\nfunction lnGamma(z: number): number {\n const g = 7\n const coefs = [\n 0.99999999999980993, 676.5203681218851, -1259.1392167224028, 771.32342877765313,\n -176.61502916214059, 12.507343278686905, -0.13857109526572012, 9.9843695780195716e-6,\n 1.5056327351493116e-7,\n ]\n if (z < 0.5) {\n return Math.log(Math.PI / Math.sin(Math.PI * z)) - lnGamma(1 - z)\n }\n z -= 1\n let x = coefs[0]!\n for (let i = 1; i < g + 2; i++) x += coefs[i]! / (z + i)\n const t = z + g + 0.5\n return 0.5 * Math.log(2 * Math.PI) + (z + 0.5) * Math.log(t) - t + Math.log(x)\n}\n\n// Standard normal CDF approximation (Abramowitz and Stegun)\nfunction normalCdf(x: number): number {\n const a1 = 0.254829592\n const a2 = -0.284496736\n const a3 = 1.421413741\n const a4 = -1.453152027\n const a5 = 1.061405429\n const p = 0.3275911\n\n const sign = x < 0 ? -1 : 1\n const absX = Math.abs(x)\n const t = 1 / (1 + p * absX)\n const y = 1 - ((((a5 * t + a4) * t + a3) * t + a2) * t + a1) * t * Math.exp((-absX * absX) / 2)\n\n return 0.5 * (1 + sign * y)\n}\n\n// ── Power analysis + multiple-comparison correction ──────────────────\n\n/**\n * Required N per arm for a two-sample comparison at target effect size,\n * alpha, and power. Normal-approximation formula:\n * n = 2 * ( (z_{1-α/2} + z_{1-β}) / d )^2\n * where d is Cohen's d. Returns Infinity for effect ≤ 0.\n */\nexport function requiredSampleSize(opts: {\n effect: number\n alpha?: number\n power?: number\n twoSided?: boolean\n}): number {\n const effect = opts.effect\n if (!Number.isFinite(effect) || effect <= 0) return Infinity\n const alpha = opts.alpha ?? 0.05\n const power = opts.power ?? 0.8\n const twoSided = opts.twoSided ?? true\n const zAlpha = zQuantile(twoSided ? 1 - alpha / 2 : 1 - alpha)\n const zBeta = zQuantile(power)\n const n = 2 * ((zAlpha + zBeta) / effect) ** 2\n return Math.ceil(n)\n}\n\n/**\n * Minimum detectable paired effect (standardised units) for a target paired\n * sample size: d_min = (z_{1-α/2} + z_β) / sqrt(n_paired). Multiply by\n * sd(deltas) for score units; treat as a lower bound — Wilcoxon and bootstrap\n * have asymptotic relative efficiency below 1 vs the t-test on heavy tails.\n */\nexport function pairedMde(opts: {\n nPaired: number\n alpha?: number\n power?: number\n twoSided?: boolean\n}): number {\n if (!Number.isFinite(opts.nPaired) || opts.nPaired <= 0) return Infinity\n const alpha = opts.alpha ?? 0.05\n const power = opts.power ?? 0.8\n const twoSided = opts.twoSided ?? true\n const zAlpha = zQuantile(twoSided ? 1 - alpha / 2 : 1 - alpha)\n const zBeta = zQuantile(power)\n return (zAlpha + zBeta) / Math.sqrt(opts.nPaired)\n}\n\n/** Bonferroni adjustment: multiply every p-value by the test count, clamp at 1. */\nexport function bonferroni(\n pValues: number[],\n alpha = 0.05,\n): { adjusted: number[]; significant: boolean[] } {\n const k = pValues.length\n const adjusted = pValues.map((p) => Math.min(1, p * k))\n const significant = adjusted.map((p) => p < alpha)\n return { adjusted, significant }\n}\n\n/**\n * Benjamini–Hochberg false discovery rate. Returns adjusted q-values and\n * significance at the target FDR; handles ties and preserves q monotonicity.\n */\nexport function benjaminiHochberg(\n pValues: number[],\n fdr = 0.05,\n): { qValues: number[]; significant: boolean[] } {\n const n = pValues.length\n if (n === 0) return { qValues: [], significant: [] }\n const indexed = pValues.map((p, i) => ({ p, i })).sort((a, b) => a.p - b.p)\n const q = new Array<number>(n)\n let minRight = 1\n for (let k = n - 1; k >= 0; k--) {\n const rank = k + 1\n const entry = indexed[k]!\n const raw = (entry.p * n) / rank\n const bounded = Math.min(minRight, raw)\n minRight = bounded\n q[entry.i] = Math.min(1, bounded)\n }\n const significant = q.map((v) => v < fdr)\n return { qValues: q, significant }\n}\n\n// ── Paired bootstrap (promotion-gate effect size) ────────────────────\n\nexport interface PairedBootstrapResult {\n /** Number of paired observations. */\n n: number\n /** Median of paired deltas (after − before). */\n median: number\n /** Mean of paired deltas. */\n mean: number\n /** Lower bound of the bootstrap CI on the chosen statistic. */\n low: number\n /** Upper bound of the bootstrap CI on the chosen statistic. */\n high: number\n /** Confidence level used (e.g. 0.95). */\n confidence: number\n /** Number of bootstrap resamples used. */\n resamples: number\n}\n\nexport interface PairedBootstrapOptions {\n /** Confidence level. Default 0.95. */\n confidence?: number\n /** Bootstrap resample count. Default 2000. */\n resamples?: number\n /** Statistic to bootstrap. Default 'median'. */\n statistic?: 'median' | 'mean'\n /** Deterministic seed. If omitted, uses Math.random(). */\n seed?: number\n}\n\n/**\n * Paired bootstrap on (after − before) deltas. Returns a CI on the chosen\n * statistic (median by default); pairs are resampled with replacement. The\n * lower bound is what the promotion gate checks — `low > threshold` means the\n * gain is real at the confidence level. Throws on unequal sample sizes.\n */\nexport function pairedBootstrap(\n before: number[],\n after: number[],\n opts: PairedBootstrapOptions = {},\n): PairedBootstrapResult {\n if (before.length !== after.length) {\n throw new Error(`pairedBootstrap: unequal sample sizes (${before.length} vs ${after.length})`)\n }\n const confidence = opts.confidence ?? 0.95\n const resamples = opts.resamples ?? 2000\n const statistic = opts.statistic ?? 'median'\n if (confidence <= 0 || confidence >= 1) {\n throw new Error(`pairedBootstrap: confidence must be in (0,1), got ${confidence}`)\n }\n\n const n = before.length\n const deltas = before.map((b, i) => after[i]! - b)\n if (n === 0) {\n return { n: 0, median: 0, mean: 0, low: 0, high: 0, confidence, resamples }\n }\n if (n === 1) {\n const d = deltas[0]!\n return { n: 1, median: d, mean: d, low: d, high: d, confidence, resamples }\n }\n\n const rng = makeRng(opts.seed)\n const samples = new Array<number>(resamples)\n for (let b = 0; b < resamples; b++) {\n if (statistic === 'mean') {\n let sum = 0\n for (let k = 0; k < n; k++) {\n sum += deltas[Math.floor(rng() * n)]!\n }\n samples[b] = sum / n\n } else {\n const acc = new Array<number>(n)\n for (let k = 0; k < n; k++) {\n acc[k] = deltas[Math.floor(rng() * n)]!\n }\n samples[b] = medianInPlace(acc)\n }\n }\n samples.sort((a, b) => a - b)\n\n const alpha = 1 - confidence\n const lowIdx = Math.floor((alpha / 2) * resamples)\n const highIdx = Math.min(resamples - 1, Math.ceil((1 - alpha / 2) * resamples) - 1)\n\n return {\n n,\n median: medianInPlace([...deltas]),\n mean: deltas.reduce((s, x) => s + x, 0) / n,\n low: samples[lowIdx]!,\n high: samples[Math.max(highIdx, lowIdx)]!,\n confidence,\n resamples,\n }\n}\n\n// ── Anytime-valid e-process (betting test-martingale) ────────────────\n\nexport interface EProcessOptions {\n /** Type-I error budget. The process decides when wealth ≥ 1/alpha\n * (Ville's inequality). Default 0.05. */\n alpha?: number\n /** Truncation bound on the predictable bet λ ∈ [0, maxBet]. Must satisfy\n * maxBet < 1/nullMean so every wealth factor stays strictly positive.\n * Default 0.5. */\n maxBet?: number\n /** The null boundary m₀ for H0: E[x] ≤ m₀ on x ∈ [0,1]. Default 0.5\n * (the paired-delta encoding x = (d+1)/2 maps \"no effect\" to 1/2).\n * A pre-registered minEffect shifts this — see `sequentialPairedGate`. */\n nullMean?: number\n}\n\nexport interface EProcessStep {\n /** Current wealth W_n — the e-value against H0 after n observations. */\n wealth: number\n /** Observations consumed so far. */\n n: number\n /** True from the first n where W_n ≥ 1/alpha onward (sticky). */\n decided: boolean\n}\n\nexport interface EProcessState extends EProcessStep {\n alpha: number\n maxBet: number\n nullMean: number\n /** The decision boundary 1/alpha. */\n threshold: number\n /** Observation count at the first threshold crossing; undefined until decided. */\n decidedAtN?: number\n}\n\nexport interface EProcess {\n /** Consume one observation x ∈ [0,1]. Throws on non-finite / out-of-range\n * input — a silent clamp would corrupt the type-I guarantee. */\n update(x: number): EProcessStep\n state(): EProcessState\n}\n\n/**\n * Betting test-martingale for bounded observations — the e-process core of\n * anytime-valid sequential testing (Waudby-Smith & Ramdas, \"Estimating means\n * of bounded random variables by betting\", JRSS-B 2024).\n *\n * Observations x_i ∈ [0,1]; H0: E[x] ≤ m₀ (`nullMean`, default 1/2). Wealth\n *\n * W_t = Π_{i≤t} (1 + λ_i (x_i − m₀)), W_0 = 1\n *\n * with the truncated GROW-style plug-in bet computed from PRIOR observations:\n *\n * λ_i = clamp((μ̂_{i−1} − m₀) / (σ̂²_{i−1} + (μ̂_{i−1} − m₀)²), 0, maxBet)\n *\n * where μ̂/σ̂² are the shrunk running estimates μ̂_t = (1/2 + Σx_i)/(t+1),\n * σ̂²_t = (1/4 + Σ(x_i − μ̂_i)²)/(t+1).\n *\n * PREDICTABILITY INVARIANT (load-bearing): λ_i is a function of x_1..x_{i−1}\n * ONLY — it may never see x_i. With λ_i ≥ 0 predictable, each factor has\n * E[1 + λ_i(x_i − m₀) | past] ≤ 1 under H0, so W is a nonnegative\n * supermartingale and Ville's inequality gives P(∃t: W_t ≥ 1/α) ≤ α — the\n * type-I guarantee holds at ANY data-dependent stopping time. λ_1 is always 0\n * (no prior evidence), so the first observation never moves wealth.\n *\n * `decided` latches at the first crossing W_t ≥ 1/α and never un-latches;\n * wealth keeps updating after the crossing (the e-process remains valid), but\n * the decision time is the first crossing.\n */\nexport function eProcess(opts: EProcessOptions = {}): EProcess {\n const alpha = opts.alpha ?? 0.05\n const maxBet = opts.maxBet ?? 0.5\n const nullMean = opts.nullMean ?? 0.5\n if (!Number.isFinite(alpha) || alpha <= 0 || alpha >= 1) {\n throw new ValidationError(`eProcess: alpha must be in (0,1), got ${alpha}`)\n }\n if (!Number.isFinite(nullMean) || nullMean <= 0 || nullMean >= 1) {\n throw new ValidationError(`eProcess: nullMean must be in (0,1), got ${nullMean}`)\n }\n if (!Number.isFinite(maxBet) || maxBet <= 0 || maxBet >= 1 / nullMean) {\n throw new ValidationError(\n `eProcess: maxBet must be in (0, 1/nullMean=${(1 / nullMean).toFixed(4)}) so wealth ` +\n `factors stay positive, got ${maxBet}`,\n )\n }\n const threshold = 1 / alpha\n let wealth = 1\n let n = 0\n let decided = false\n let decidedAtN: number | undefined\n // Running sums over observations consumed so far — read BEFORE folding in\n // the next x, so every bet is predictable.\n let sumX = 0\n let varSum = 0\n return {\n update(x: number): EProcessStep {\n if (typeof x !== 'number' || !Number.isFinite(x) || x < 0 || x > 1) {\n throw new ValidationError(\n `eProcess: observation must be a finite number in [0,1], got ${x}`,\n )\n }\n // λ from prior observations ONLY — x has not touched sumX/varSum yet.\n const muPrev = (0.5 + sumX) / (n + 1)\n const varPrev = (0.25 + varSum) / (n + 1)\n const edge = muPrev - nullMean\n const lambda = Math.min(maxBet, Math.max(0, edge / (varPrev + edge * edge)))\n wealth *= 1 + lambda * (x - nullMean)\n n += 1\n sumX += x\n const muNow = (0.5 + sumX) / (n + 1)\n varSum += (x - muNow) ** 2\n if (!decided && wealth >= threshold) {\n decided = true\n decidedAtN = n\n }\n return { wealth, n, decided }\n },\n state(): EProcessState {\n return { wealth, n, decided, alpha, maxBet, nullMean, threshold, decidedAtN }\n },\n }\n}\n\n// ── private stats helpers ────────────────────────────────────────────\n\n/** Standard-normal inverse CDF (Acklam approximation). */\nfunction zQuantile(p: number): number {\n if (p <= 0 || p >= 1) {\n if (p === 0) return -Infinity\n if (p === 1) return Infinity\n return NaN\n }\n const a = [\n -3.969683028665376e1, 2.209460984245205e2, -2.759285104469687e2, 1.38357751867269e2,\n -3.066479806614716e1, 2.506628277459239,\n ]\n const b = [\n -5.447609879822406e1, 1.615858368580409e2, -1.556989798598866e2, 6.680131188771972e1,\n -1.328068155288572e1,\n ]\n const c = [\n -7.784894002430293e-3, -3.223964580411365e-1, -2.400758277161838, -2.549732539343734,\n 4.374664141464968, 2.938163982698783,\n ]\n const d = [7.784695709041462e-3, 3.224671290700398e-1, 2.445134137142996, 3.754408661907416]\n const pLow = 0.02425\n const pHigh = 1 - pLow\n let q: number\n let r: number\n if (p < pLow) {\n q = Math.sqrt(-2 * Math.log(p))\n return (\n (((((c[0]! * q + c[1]!) * q + c[2]!) * q + c[3]!) * q + c[4]!) * q + c[5]!) /\n ((((d[0]! * q + d[1]!) * q + d[2]!) * q + d[3]!) * q + 1)\n )\n }\n if (p <= pHigh) {\n q = p - 0.5\n r = q * q\n return (\n ((((((a[0]! * r + a[1]!) * r + a[2]!) * r + a[3]!) * r + a[4]!) * r + a[5]!) * q) /\n (((((b[0]! * r + b[1]!) * r + b[2]!) * r + b[3]!) * r + b[4]!) * r + 1)\n )\n }\n q = Math.sqrt(-2 * Math.log(1 - p))\n return (\n -(((((c[0]! * q + c[1]!) * q + c[2]!) * q + c[3]!) * q + c[4]!) * q + c[5]!) /\n ((((d[0]! * q + d[1]!) * q + d[2]!) * q + d[3]!) * q + 1)\n )\n}\n\nfunction medianInPlace(xs: number[]): number {\n if (xs.length === 0) return 0\n xs.sort((a, b) => a - b)\n const mid = Math.floor(xs.length / 2)\n return xs.length % 2 === 0 ? (xs[mid - 1]! + xs[mid]!) / 2 : xs[mid]!\n}\n\nfunction makeRng(seed: number | undefined): () => number {\n if (seed === undefined) return Math.random\n return mulberry32(seed)\n}\n\n/** Tiny seedable PRNG (mulberry32) — deterministic resampling/shuffling, not\n * cryptographic. Exported so e-process shuffles and bootstrap resampling\n * share ONE PRNG implementation; a seed is REQUIRED (unseeded randomness in\n * gate verdicts is non-reproducible by construction). */\nexport function mulberry32(seed: number): () => number {\n let s = seed | 0 || 0x9e3779b9\n return () => {\n s = (s + 0x6d2b79f5) | 0\n let t = s\n t = Math.imul(t ^ (t >>> 15), t | 1)\n t ^= t + Math.imul(t ^ (t >>> 7), t | 61)\n return ((t ^ (t >>> 14)) >>> 0) / 4294967296\n 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