@tangle-network/agent-eval 0.69.0 → 0.71.0

package/dist/{run-improvement-loop-BKpM5T4t.d.ts → run-improvement-loop-Bzamo6GB.d.ts}

@@ -1,5 +1,5 @@
 import { L as LlmClientOptions } from './llm-client-DbjLfz-K.js';
-import { I as ImprovementDriver, S as Scenario, f as CampaignResult, k as GateResult, D as DispatchFn, a as JudgeConfig, L as LabeledScenarioStore, g as CampaignTraceWriter, m as GenerationRecord, M as MutableSurface, P as ParetoParent, G as Gate } from './types-c2R2kfmv.js';
+import { I as ImprovementDriver, S as Scenario, f as CampaignResult, k as GateResult, D as DispatchFn, a as JudgeConfig, L as LabeledScenarioStore, g as CampaignTraceWriter, m as GenerationRecord, M as MutableSurface, P as ParetoParent, G as Gate } from './types-CnmZ2bkP.js';
 
 /**
  * @experimental

package/dist/traces.js

@@ -34,7 +34,7 @@ import {
   tokenizeDomainWords,
   traceAnalystFunctionGroup,
   traceAnalystOnRunComplete
-} from "./chunk-Z4ZCBC7M.js";
+} from "./chunk-ODGETRTM.js";
 import {
   DEFAULT_REDACTION_RULES,
   REDACTION_VERSION,

package/dist/{types-c2R2kfmv.d.ts → types-CnmZ2bkP.d.ts}

@@ -437,10 +437,16 @@ interface GenerationCandidate {
     /** Mean score per judge dimension across all cells (scenarios × reps ×
      *  judges that reported the dimension). */
     dimensions: Record<string, number>;
-    /** Per-scenario composite (mean over reps + judges). */
+    /** Per-scenario composite (mean over reps + judges), plus the judge's
+     *  free-form `notes` for that scenario — the "why it scored low" evidence a
+     *  reflective driver grounds its next edit on. Keep `notes` GENERALIZABLE
+     *  (which checks/lines/dimensions failed and how), NOT case-specific ground
+     *  truth: leaking expected answers into the prompt is memorization, and the
+     *  held-out gate would reject it anyway. */
     scenarios: Array<{
         scenarioId: string;
         composite: number;
+        notes?: string;
     }>;
     /** Driver-supplied short label for the change. Present when the driver
      *  returned a `ProposedCandidate`; absent for bare-surface mutators. */

package/package.json

@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
 {
   "name": "@tangle-network/agent-eval",
-  "version": "0.69.0",
+  "version": "0.71.0",
   "description": "Substrate for self-improving agents: traces, verifiable rewards, preferences, GEPA / reflective mutation, auto-research, replay, sequential anytime-valid stats, and release gates.",
   "homepage": "https://github.com/tangle-network/agent-eval#readme",
   "repository": {

package/dist/chunk-3B7Y5AUR.js.map

@@ -1 +0,0 @@
-{"version":3,"sources":["../src/failure-taxonomy.ts","../src/tool-use-metrics.ts","../src/baseline.ts"],"sourcesContent":["/**\n * Failure taxonomy — canonical classes + a default classifier.\n *\n * Every failed run should end up in a named class. The classifier here\n * is rule-based (fast, deterministic); an LLM fallback can be added by\n * the consumer for novel cases and trained into the rule base over time.\n *\n * Consumers call `classifyFailure(run, spans, events)` and persist the\n * returned class as `Run.outcome.failureClass`.\n */\n\nimport type { FailureClass, Run, Span, TraceEvent } from './trace/schema'\nimport { FAILURE_CLASSES } from './trace/schema'\n\nexport { FAILURE_CLASSES, type FailureClass }\n\nexport interface FailureContext {\n  run: Run\n  spans: Span[]\n  events: TraceEvent[]\n}\n\nexport interface FailureClassification {\n  failureClass: FailureClass\n  reason: string\n  triggerSpanId?: string\n  triggerEventId?: string\n}\n\n/** Ordered rules — first match wins. */\nexport interface FailureRule {\n  id: string\n  match: (ctx: FailureContext) => {\n    failureClass: FailureClass\n    reason: string\n    triggerSpanId?: string\n    triggerEventId?: string\n  } | null\n}\n\nexport const DEFAULT_RULES: FailureRule[] = [\n  // Outcome already named? Respect it.\n  {\n    id: 'explicit-outcome',\n    match: ({ run }) => {\n      const fc = run.outcome?.failureClass\n      if (fc && fc !== 'unknown')\n        return { failureClass: fc, reason: 'outcome.failureClass set explicitly' }\n      return null\n    },\n  },\n  {\n    id: 'knowledge-readiness-blocked',\n    match: ({ events }) => {\n      const event = events.find(\n        (e) =>\n          e.kind === 'custom' &&\n          e.payload.kind === 'readiness_scored' &&\n          e.payload.passed === false,\n      )\n      return event\n        ? {\n            failureClass: 'knowledge_readiness_blocked',\n            reason: 'knowledge readiness report blocked execution',\n            triggerEventId: event.eventId,\n          }\n        : null\n    },\n  },\n  {\n    id: 'bad-integration-manifest',\n    match: ({ events }) => {\n      const event = events.find(\n        (e) =>\n          e.kind === 'custom' &&\n          ((e.payload.kind === 'integration_manifest_validated' && e.payload.valid === false) ||\n            (e.payload.kind === 'integration_invoke_failed' &&\n              e.payload.code === 'manifest_invalid')),\n      )\n      return event\n        ? {\n            failureClass: 'bad_integration_manifest',\n            reason: 'integration manifest validation failed before launch',\n            triggerEventId: event.eventId,\n          }\n        : null\n    },\n  },\n  {\n    id: 'missing-integration-connection',\n    match: ({ events }) => {\n      const event = events.find(\n        (e) =>\n          e.kind === 'custom' &&\n          e.payload.kind === 'integration_manifest_resolved' &&\n          hasResolutionStatus(e.payload, 'missing_connection'),\n      )\n      return event\n        ? {\n            failureClass: 'missing_integration_connection',\n            reason: 'required integration connection was missing',\n            triggerEventId: event.eventId,\n          }\n        : null\n    },\n  },\n  {\n    id: 'missing-integration-scope',\n    match: ({ events }) => {\n      const event = events.find(\n        (e) =>\n          e.kind === 'custom' &&\n          ((e.payload.kind === 'integration_manifest_resolved' && hasMissingScopes(e.payload)) ||\n            (e.payload.kind === 'integration_invoke_failed' && e.payload.code === 'scope_denied')),\n      )\n      return event\n        ? {\n            failureClass: 'missing_integration_scope',\n            reason: 'integration grant or connection lacks required scopes',\n            triggerEventId: event.eventId,\n          }\n        : null\n    },\n  },\n  {\n    id: 'integration-approval-required',\n    match: ({ events }) => {\n      const event = events.find(\n        (e) =>\n          e.kind === 'custom' &&\n          ((e.payload.kind === 'integration_invoke' && e.payload.status === 'approval_required') ||\n            (e.payload.kind === 'integration_invoke_failed' &&\n              e.payload.code === 'approval_required') ||\n            e.payload.kind === 'integration_approval_required'),\n      )\n      return event\n        ? {\n            failureClass: 'integration_approval_required',\n            reason: 'integration write paused for user approval',\n            triggerEventId: event.eventId,\n          }\n        : null\n    },\n  },\n  {\n    id: 'integration-auth-expired',\n    match: ({ events }) => {\n      const event = events.find(\n        (e) =>\n          e.kind === 'custom' &&\n          e.payload.kind === 'integration_invoke_failed' &&\n          (e.payload.code === 'auth_expired' ||\n            e.payload.code === 'connection_not_active' ||\n            e.payload.code === 'capability_expired' ||\n            e.payload.status === 'expired'),\n      )\n      return event\n        ? {\n            failureClass: 'integration_auth_expired',\n            reason: 'integration connection or capability expired',\n            triggerEventId: event.eventId,\n          }\n        : null\n    },\n  },\n  {\n    id: 'unsafe-integration-write-denied',\n    match: ({ events }) => {\n      const event = events.find(\n        (e) =>\n          e.kind === 'custom' &&\n          e.payload.kind === 'integration_invoke_failed' &&\n          (e.payload.code === 'unsafe_write_denied' ||\n            e.payload.code === 'policy_denied' ||\n            e.payload.code === 'action_denied'),\n      )\n      return event\n        ? {\n            failureClass: 'unsafe_integration_write_denied',\n            reason: 'integration write was denied by policy or capability scope',\n            triggerEventId: event.eventId,\n          }\n        : null\n    },\n  },\n  {\n    id: 'integration-provider-failure',\n    match: ({ events }) => {\n      const event = events.find(\n        (e) =>\n          e.kind === 'custom' &&\n          e.payload.kind === 'integration_invoke_failed' &&\n          ![\n            'scope_denied',\n            'approval_required',\n            'auth_expired',\n            'connection_not_active',\n            'capability_expired',\n            'unsafe_write_denied',\n            'policy_denied',\n            'action_denied',\n            'manifest_invalid',\n          ].includes(String(e.payload.code)),\n      )\n      return event\n        ? {\n            failureClass: 'integration_provider_failure',\n            reason: 'integration provider invocation failed',\n            triggerEventId: event.eventId,\n          }\n        : null\n    },\n  },\n  {\n    id: 'missing-credentials',\n    match: ({ events }) => {\n      const event = events.find(\n        (e) =>\n          e.kind === 'custom' &&\n          e.payload.kind === 'knowledge_gap' &&\n          e.payload.category === 'credential_or_secret',\n      )\n      return event\n        ? {\n            failureClass: 'missing_credentials',\n            reason: 'required credential or secret was missing',\n            triggerEventId: event.eventId,\n          }\n        : null\n    },\n  },\n  {\n    id: 'bad-retrieval',\n    match: ({ run, spans }) => {\n      if (run.outcome?.pass !== false) return null\n      const retrieval = spans.find(\n        (s) =>\n          s.kind === 'retrieval' && (s.hits.length === 0 || s.hits.every((hit) => hit.score <= 0)),\n      )\n      return retrieval\n        ? {\n            failureClass: 'bad_retrieval',\n            reason: 'retrieval returned no useful hits for a failed run',\n            triggerSpanId: retrieval.spanId,\n          }\n        : null\n    },\n  },\n  {\n    id: 'insufficient-evidence',\n    match: ({ events }) => {\n      const event = events.find(\n        (e) =>\n          e.kind === 'custom' &&\n          e.payload.kind === 'knowledge_gap' &&\n          e.payload.reason === 'insufficient_evidence',\n      )\n      return event\n        ? {\n            failureClass: 'insufficient_evidence',\n            reason: 'task proceeded with insufficient supporting evidence',\n            triggerEventId: event.eventId,\n          }\n        : null\n    },\n  },\n  {\n    id: 'contradictory-evidence',\n    match: ({ events }) => {\n      const event = events.find(\n        (e) =>\n          e.kind === 'custom' &&\n          e.payload.kind === 'knowledge_gap' &&\n          e.payload.reason === 'contradictory_evidence',\n      )\n      return event\n        ? {\n            failureClass: 'contradictory_evidence',\n            reason: 'supporting evidence contradicted itself',\n            triggerEventId: event.eventId,\n          }\n        : null\n    },\n  },\n  // Budget breach events\n  {\n    id: 'budget-breach',\n    match: ({ events }) => {\n      const breach = events.find((e) => e.kind === 'budget_breach')\n      return breach\n        ? {\n            failureClass: 'budget_exceeded',\n            reason: `budget breached on ${breach.payload.dimension ?? 'unknown dimension'}`,\n            triggerEventId: breach.eventId,\n          }\n        : null\n    },\n  },\n  // Policy violations\n  {\n    id: 'policy-violation',\n    match: ({ events }) => {\n      const e = events.find((x) => x.kind === 'policy_violation')\n      return e\n        ? {\n            failureClass: 'policy_violation',\n            reason: 'policy_violation event emitted',\n            triggerEventId: e.eventId,\n          }\n        : null\n    },\n  },\n  // Sandbox non-zero exit code\n  {\n    id: 'sandbox-failure',\n    match: ({ spans }) => {\n      const s = spans.find(\n        (x) => x.kind === 'sandbox' && typeof x.exitCode === 'number' && x.exitCode !== 0,\n      )\n      if (!s) return null\n      return {\n        failureClass: 'sandbox_failure',\n        reason: `sandbox exited ${(s as Extract<Span, { kind: 'sandbox' }>).exitCode}`,\n        triggerSpanId: s.spanId,\n      }\n    },\n  },\n  // Timeout: run aborted by external signal\n  {\n    id: 'timeout',\n    match: ({ run, events }) => {\n      if (run.status !== 'aborted') return null\n      const hasTimeout = events.some(\n        (e) =>\n          e.kind === 'error' &&\n          String(e.payload.reason ?? '')\n            .toLowerCase()\n            .includes('timeout'),\n      )\n      const note = (run.outcome?.notes ?? '').toLowerCase()\n      if (hasTimeout || note.includes('timeout') || note.includes('deadline')) {\n        return { failureClass: 'timeout', reason: 'timeout signal observed' }\n      }\n      return null\n    },\n  },\n  // Tool recovery failure: many consecutive tool errors on the same tool\n  {\n    id: 'tool-recovery-failure',\n    match: ({ spans }) => {\n      const tools = spans.filter((s) => s.kind === 'tool')\n      const byTool = new Map<string, Span[]>()\n      for (const t of tools) {\n        const name = (t as Extract<Span, { kind: 'tool' }>).toolName\n        const arr = byTool.get(name) ?? []\n        arr.push(t)\n        byTool.set(name, arr)\n      }\n      for (const [name, arr] of byTool) {\n        const errs = arr.filter((s) => s.status === 'error')\n        if (errs.length >= 3 && errs.length === arr.length) {\n          return {\n            failureClass: 'tool_recovery_failure',\n            reason: `${errs.length} consecutive errors on tool \"${name}\"`,\n            triggerSpanId: errs[errs.length - 1]!.spanId,\n          }\n        }\n      }\n      return null\n    },\n  },\n  // Tool selection error: the run failed and agent called zero tools despite having them\n  {\n    id: 'tool-selection-error',\n    match: ({ run, spans }) => {\n      if (run.outcome?.pass !== false) return null\n      const hasToolsAvailable = spans.some(\n        (s) =>\n          s.kind === 'agent' &&\n          (s.attributes?.toolsAvailable as number | undefined) !== undefined &&\n          (s.attributes?.toolsAvailable as number) > 0,\n      )\n      const tools = spans.filter((s) => s.kind === 'tool')\n      if (hasToolsAvailable && tools.length === 0) {\n        return {\n          failureClass: 'tool_selection_error',\n          reason: 'tools were available but none were called',\n        }\n      }\n      return null\n    },\n  },\n  // Format drift: scored by a judge with dimension='format' below threshold\n  {\n    id: 'format-drift',\n    match: ({ spans }) => {\n      const judge = spans.find(\n        (s) =>\n          s.kind === 'judge' &&\n          (s as Extract<Span, { kind: 'judge' }>).dimension === 'format' &&\n          (s as Extract<Span, { kind: 'judge' }>).score < 0.5,\n      )\n      return judge\n        ? {\n            failureClass: 'format_drift',\n            reason: 'format judge scored below 0.5',\n            triggerSpanId: judge.spanId,\n          }\n        : null\n    },\n  },\n]\n\nfunction hasResolutionStatus(payload: Record<string, unknown>, status: string): boolean {\n  if (status === 'missing_connection' && stringArray(payload.missingConnections).length > 0)\n    return true\n  return resolutionItems(payload).some((item) => item.status === status)\n}\n\nfunction hasMissingScopes(payload: Record<string, unknown>): boolean {\n  if (stringArray(payload.missingScopes).length > 0) return true\n  return resolutionItems(payload).some(\n    (item) => Array.isArray(item.missingScopes) && item.missingScopes.length > 0,\n  )\n}\n\nfunction resolutionItems(payload: Record<string, unknown>): Array<Record<string, unknown>> {\n  return [\n    ...records(payload.missing),\n    ...records(payload.optionalMissing),\n    ...records(payload.ready),\n  ]\n}\n\nfunction records(value: unknown): Array<Record<string, unknown>> {\n  if (!Array.isArray(value)) return []\n  return value.filter(\n    (item): item is Record<string, unknown> =>\n      Boolean(item) && typeof item === 'object' && !Array.isArray(item),\n  )\n}\n\nfunction stringArray(value: unknown): string[] {\n  return Array.isArray(value)\n    ? value.filter((item): item is string => typeof item === 'string')\n    : []\n}\n\n/** Classify the failure mode of a run using an ordered rule list. */\nexport function classifyFailure(\n  ctx: FailureContext,\n  rules: FailureRule[] = DEFAULT_RULES,\n): FailureClassification {\n  if (ctx.run.outcome?.pass !== false && ctx.run.status === 'completed') {\n    return { failureClass: 'success', reason: 'run completed with pass=true (or no explicit fail)' }\n  }\n  for (const rule of rules) {\n    const hit = rule.match(ctx)\n    if (hit) return hit\n  }\n  return { failureClass: 'unknown', reason: 'no rule matched; run failed for unclassified reason' }\n}\n","/**\n * Tool-use metrics — derived purely from trace data.\n *\n * No scoring assumptions: consumers supply optional ground-truth tool\n * selections per turn + optional \"information used downstream\" signals.\n * Without those, we still compute descriptive metrics (error rate,\n * retry rate, duplicate-call rate) that are useful on their own.\n */\n\nimport { argHash, groupBy, toolSpans } from './trace/query'\nimport type { Span } from './trace/schema'\nimport type { TraceStore } from './trace/store'\n\nexport interface ToolUseMetrics {\n  runId: string\n  totalCalls: number\n  byTool: Record<string, ToolStats>\n  errorRate: number\n  /** Ratio of calls with identical (toolName, argHash) already seen earlier in the same run. */\n  duplicateRate: number\n  /** Ratio of error calls followed by ≥1 retry on same tool. */\n  retryRate: number\n  /** Optional: of the calls agent made, fraction the evaluator marked as \"correct selection\". */\n  selectionAccuracy?: number\n}\n\nexport interface ToolStats {\n  calls: number\n  errors: number\n  avgLatencyMs: number\n  duplicates: number\n}\n\nexport interface ToolUseOptions {\n  /** Map of spanId → whether the evaluator judged the tool selection correct. Optional. */\n  selectionLabels?: Record<string, boolean>\n}\n\nexport async function computeToolUseMetrics(\n  store: TraceStore,\n  runId: string,\n  options: ToolUseOptions = {},\n): Promise<ToolUseMetrics> {\n  const tools = await toolSpans(store, runId)\n  if (tools.length === 0) {\n    return { runId, totalCalls: 0, byTool: {}, errorRate: 0, duplicateRate: 0, retryRate: 0 }\n  }\n\n  const byTool: Record<string, ToolStats> = {}\n  let totalErrors = 0\n  let totalDuplicates = 0\n  const sortedTools = [...tools].sort((a, b) => a.startedAt - b.startedAt)\n  const seenSignatures = new Set<string>()\n\n  // duplicate detection + per-tool aggregation\n  for (const t of sortedTools) {\n    const stat = (byTool[t.toolName] ??= { calls: 0, errors: 0, avgLatencyMs: 0, duplicates: 0 })\n    stat.calls += 1\n    if (t.status === 'error') {\n      stat.errors += 1\n      totalErrors += 1\n    }\n    if (typeof t.latencyMs === 'number') stat.avgLatencyMs += t.latencyMs\n    const sig = `${t.toolName}|${argHash(t.args)}`\n    if (seenSignatures.has(sig)) {\n      stat.duplicates += 1\n      totalDuplicates += 1\n    }\n    seenSignatures.add(sig)\n  }\n\n  for (const stat of Object.values(byTool)) {\n    stat.avgLatencyMs = stat.calls > 0 ? stat.avgLatencyMs / stat.calls : 0\n  }\n\n  // retry detection: per-tool chronological adjacency where error → next same-tool call\n  let retryOpportunities = 0\n  let retriesFollowed = 0\n  for (const [, arr] of groupBy(sortedTools, (t) => t.toolName)) {\n    for (let i = 0; i < arr.length; i++) {\n      if (arr[i]!.status !== 'error') continue\n      retryOpportunities += 1\n      if (arr[i + 1]) retriesFollowed += 1\n    }\n  }\n  const retryRate = retryOpportunities > 0 ? retriesFollowed / retryOpportunities : 0\n\n  let selectionAccuracy: number | undefined\n  if (options.selectionLabels) {\n    const labeled = sortedTools.filter((t) => t.spanId in options.selectionLabels!)\n    if (labeled.length > 0) {\n      selectionAccuracy =\n        labeled.filter((t) => options.selectionLabels![t.spanId]).length / labeled.length\n    }\n  }\n\n  return {\n    runId,\n    totalCalls: sortedTools.length,\n    byTool,\n    errorRate: totalErrors / sortedTools.length,\n    duplicateRate: totalDuplicates / sortedTools.length,\n    retryRate,\n    selectionAccuracy,\n  }\n}\n\nexport type { Span }\n","/**\n * Baseline regression detection.\n *\n * Lifted from ADC baseline.ts. Every promotion-blocking signal boils down\n * to: \"is this run measurably worse than baseline?\" — with enough\n * statistical rigor to distinguish noise from drift.\n *\n * Uses:\n *   - Welch's t-test (unequal variance) for per-metric mean comparison\n *   - Cohen's d for effect size magnitude\n *   - IQR for stability flag (unstable samples can't be trusted for comparisons)\n *\n * Returns a structured verdict: improved | regressed | stable | unstable.\n */\n\nimport { cohensD } from './statistics'\n\nexport interface MetricSamples {\n  /** Stable metric key (e.g. \"overallScore\", \"firstTokenMs\"). */\n  metric: string\n  /** Whether higher values are better. */\n  higherIsBetter: boolean\n  baseline: number[]\n  candidate: number[]\n}\n\nexport interface MetricVerdict {\n  metric: string\n  baselineMean: number\n  candidateMean: number\n  delta: number\n  cohensD: number\n  welchT: number\n  welchDf: number\n  welchP: number\n  stable: boolean\n  /** IQR of the combined samples — used as a rough stability indicator. */\n  iqr: number\n  verdict: 'improved' | 'regressed' | 'stable' | 'unstable'\n}\n\nexport interface BaselineReport {\n  metrics: MetricVerdict[]\n  /** True if any critical metric regressed. */\n  hasRegression: boolean\n  /** True if any metric is unstable (too noisy to judge). */\n  hasUnstable: boolean\n}\n\nexport interface BaselineOptions {\n  /** Effect size threshold for meaningful delta (default 0.5 — medium effect). */\n  effectThreshold?: number\n  /** p-value threshold for statistical significance (default 0.05). */\n  alpha?: number\n  /** IQR/mean ratio above which samples are flagged unstable (default 0.30). */\n  unstableCvThreshold?: number\n}\n\n/**\n * Compare candidate samples against baseline per metric. Verdict logic:\n *   - unstable: IQR/|mean| > threshold on either set — not enough signal\n *   - improved: meaningful effect in the \"better\" direction AND p < alpha\n *   - regressed: meaningful effect in the \"worse\" direction AND p < alpha\n *   - stable: otherwise (no significant change)\n */\nexport function compareToBaseline(\n  samples: MetricSamples[],\n  options: BaselineOptions = {},\n): BaselineReport {\n  const effectThreshold = options.effectThreshold ?? 0.5\n  const alpha = options.alpha ?? 0.05\n  const cvThreshold = options.unstableCvThreshold ?? 0.3\n\n  const metrics: MetricVerdict[] = samples.map((s) => {\n    if (s.baseline.length < 2 || s.candidate.length < 2) {\n      throw new Error(`compareToBaseline: need ≥2 samples per side for \"${s.metric}\"`)\n    }\n    const bMean = mean(s.baseline)\n    const cMean = mean(s.candidate)\n    const delta = cMean - bMean\n    const d = cohensD(s.baseline, s.candidate) // positive = candidate higher\n    const { t, df, p } = welchsTTest(s.baseline, s.candidate)\n    // Stability is per-side: a comparison is trustworthy only when BOTH\n    // samples are internally consistent. Combining the sides would flag\n    // large-but-real deltas as \"unstable\" which is exactly what we want\n    // to detect.\n    const baselineIqr = iqr(s.baseline)\n    const candidateIqr = iqr(s.candidate)\n    const baselineStable = baselineIqr / Math.max(Math.abs(bMean), 1e-9) <= cvThreshold\n    const candidateStable = candidateIqr / Math.max(Math.abs(cMean), 1e-9) <= cvThreshold\n    const stable = baselineStable && candidateStable\n    const reportedIqr = Math.max(baselineIqr, candidateIqr)\n\n    let verdict: MetricVerdict['verdict']\n    if (!stable) {\n      verdict = 'unstable'\n    } else if (p < alpha && Math.abs(d) >= effectThreshold) {\n      const candidateIsBetter = s.higherIsBetter ? delta > 0 : delta < 0\n      verdict = candidateIsBetter ? 'improved' : 'regressed'\n    } else {\n      verdict = 'stable'\n    }\n\n    return {\n      metric: s.metric,\n      baselineMean: bMean,\n      candidateMean: cMean,\n      delta,\n      cohensD: d,\n      welchT: t,\n      welchDf: df,\n      welchP: p,\n      stable,\n      iqr: reportedIqr,\n      verdict,\n    }\n  })\n\n  return {\n    metrics,\n    hasRegression: metrics.some((m) => m.verdict === 'regressed'),\n    hasUnstable: metrics.some((m) => m.verdict === 'unstable'),\n  }\n}\n\nfunction mean(xs: number[]): number {\n  return xs.reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0) / xs.length\n}\n\n/** Inter-quartile range; 0 when the sample has no spread. */\nexport function iqr(xs: number[]): number {\n  if (xs.length === 0) return 0\n  const sorted = [...xs].sort((a, b) => a - b)\n  const q = (p: number) => {\n    const idx = p * (sorted.length - 1)\n    const lo = Math.floor(idx)\n    const hi = Math.ceil(idx)\n    return sorted[lo]! + (sorted[hi]! - sorted[lo]!) * (idx - lo)\n  }\n  return q(0.75) - q(0.25)\n}\n\n/**\n * Welch's t-test — unequal-variance two-sample t. Uses the same Student-t\n * CDF as `pairedTTest` (via incomplete beta); falls back to normal tail\n * when df is large.\n */\nexport function welchsTTest(a: number[], b: number[]): { t: number; df: number; p: number } {\n  if (a.length < 2 || b.length < 2) return { t: 0, df: 0, p: 1 }\n  const mA = mean(a)\n  const mB = mean(b)\n  const vA = variance(a, mA)\n  const vB = variance(b, mB)\n  const seSquared = vA / a.length + vB / b.length\n  if (seSquared === 0) return { t: mA === mB ? 0 : Infinity, df: 0, p: mA === mB ? 1 : 0 }\n  const t = (mB - mA) / Math.sqrt(seSquared)\n  const df =\n    (seSquared * seSquared) /\n    ((vA / a.length) ** 2 / (a.length - 1) + (vB / b.length) ** 2 / (b.length - 1))\n  const p = 2 * (1 - studentTCdf(Math.abs(t), df))\n  return { t, df, p }\n}\n\nfunction variance(xs: number[], m: number): number {\n  return xs.reduce((acc, x) => acc + (x - m) ** 2, 0) / (xs.length - 1)\n}\n\n// Re-used from statistics.ts via small local copy to avoid exporting 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