@tangle-network/agent-eval 0.55.0 → 0.57.0

package/dist/chunk-WP7SY7AI.js.map

@@ -1 +0,0 @@
-{"version":3,"sources":["../src/judge-calibration.ts","../src/statistics.ts"],"sourcesContent":["/**\n * Judge calibration — measure judge quality against human gold + bias.\n *\n * Workflow:\n *   1. Build a golden set: {itemId, humanScore}[].\n *   2. Run candidate judges; each produces {itemId, score}.\n *   3. `calibrateJudge(golden, candidate)` reports κ + Pearson + MAE.\n *   4. `calibrateJudgeContinuous(golden, candidate)` adds quadratic-weighted\n *      κ over the un-rounded [0,1] scores plus ICC(2,1), Pearson, Spearman,\n *      and bootstrap CIs — use this for fine-grained judges where rounding\n *      to int discards information (e.g. 0.78 vs 0.81 both round to 1 and\n *      look \"perfectly agreed\" to integer κ).\n *   5. Run bias probes (positional, verbosity, self-preference) to\n *      detect systematic score inflation.\n *   6. For N≥2 judges on the same items, `continuousAgreement(scores)`\n *      reports ICC(2,1) + κ_w + Pearson + Spearman with bootstrap CIs.\n *\n * Returns actionable diagnostics, not a single number. Consumers then\n * decide whether to trust the judge, retrain it, or add a tie-breaker.\n */\n\nexport interface GoldenItem {\n  itemId: string\n  humanScore: number\n  /** Optional group used for per-group bias audits (e.g. model-of-output family). */\n  group?: string\n}\n\nexport interface CandidateScore {\n  itemId: string\n  score: number\n  /** Optional — enables positional-bias analysis (did order matter?). */\n  positionOfAInput?: 'first' | 'second'\n}\n\nexport interface CalibrationResult {\n  n: number\n  pearson: number\n  /** Cohen's κ with quadratic weights over integer-rounded scores. */\n  kappa: number\n  /** Mean absolute error vs human. */\n  mae: number\n  /** Worst-5 miscalibrations (largest |judge - human|). */\n  worstItems: Array<{ itemId: string; judge: number; human: number; delta: number }>\n}\n\nexport function calibrateJudge(\n  golden: GoldenItem[],\n  candidate: CandidateScore[],\n): CalibrationResult {\n  const map = new Map<string, { h: number; j: number }>()\n  for (const g of golden) map.set(g.itemId, { h: g.humanScore, j: NaN })\n  for (const c of candidate) {\n    const entry = map.get(c.itemId)\n    if (entry) entry.j = c.score\n  }\n  const common = [...map.values()].filter((v) => Number.isFinite(v.j))\n  const n = common.length\n  if (n < 2) {\n    return { n, pearson: NaN, kappa: NaN, mae: NaN, worstItems: [] }\n  }\n  const humans = common.map((c) => c.h)\n  const judges = common.map((c) => c.j)\n  const pearson = pearsonR(humans, judges)\n  const kappa = weightedKappa(humans.map(Math.round), judges.map(Math.round))\n  const absDiffs = common.map((c) => Math.abs(c.j - c.h))\n  const mae = absDiffs.reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0) / n\n  const worst = [...map.entries()]\n    .filter(([, v]) => Number.isFinite(v.j))\n    .map(([itemId, v]) => ({ itemId, judge: v.j, human: v.h, delta: Math.abs(v.j - v.h) }))\n    .sort((a, b) => b.delta - a.delta)\n    .slice(0, 5)\n  return { n, pearson, kappa, mae, worstItems: worst }\n}\n\nexport interface PositionalBiasResult {\n  /**\n   * Score delta (first-position - second-position) averaged across items\n   * presented in both positions. Non-zero = positional bias.\n   */\n  avgDelta: number\n  n: number\n}\n\n/**\n * Feed the same items to the judge twice with A/B swapped and pass all\n * results here. Items that don't appear in both positions are ignored.\n */\nexport function positionalBias(scores: CandidateScore[]): PositionalBiasResult {\n  const pairs = new Map<string, { first?: number; second?: number }>()\n  for (const s of scores) {\n    const slot = pairs.get(s.itemId) ?? {}\n    if (s.positionOfAInput === 'first') slot.first = s.score\n    else if (s.positionOfAInput === 'second') slot.second = s.score\n    pairs.set(s.itemId, slot)\n  }\n  const deltas: number[] = []\n  for (const { first, second } of pairs.values()) {\n    if (first !== undefined && second !== undefined) deltas.push(first - second)\n  }\n  if (deltas.length === 0) return { avgDelta: 0, n: 0 }\n  return { avgDelta: deltas.reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0) / deltas.length, n: deltas.length }\n}\n\nexport interface VerbosityBiasResult {\n  /** Pearson correlation between output length and score. Strong positive = verbosity bias. */\n  pearson: number\n  n: number\n}\n\nexport function verbosityBias(\n  samples: Array<{ outputLen: number; score: number }>,\n): VerbosityBiasResult {\n  const n = samples.length\n  if (n < 3) return { pearson: NaN, n }\n  return {\n    pearson: pearsonR(\n      samples.map((s) => s.outputLen),\n      samples.map((s) => s.score),\n    ),\n    n,\n  }\n}\n\nexport interface SelfPreferenceResult {\n  /** Mean judge score when judge's family matches output's family. */\n  inFamilyMean: number\n  outOfFamilyMean: number\n  deltaMean: number\n  n: number\n}\n\n/**\n * Pass the same scenarios scored with judge-model X grading outputs from\n * model X (in-family) and model Y (out-of-family). Non-zero delta\n * indicates self-preference.\n */\nexport function selfPreference(\n  samples: Array<{ score: number; inFamily: boolean }>,\n): SelfPreferenceResult {\n  const inF = samples.filter((s) => s.inFamily).map((s) => s.score)\n  const outF = samples.filter((s) => !s.inFamily).map((s) => s.score)\n  if (inF.length === 0 || outF.length === 0)\n    return { inFamilyMean: 0, outOfFamilyMean: 0, deltaMean: 0, n: 0 }\n  const inMean = inF.reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0) / inF.length\n  const outMean = outF.reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0) / outF.length\n  return {\n    inFamilyMean: inMean,\n    outOfFamilyMean: outMean,\n    deltaMean: inMean - outMean,\n    n: samples.length,\n  }\n}\n\n// ── Helpers ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────\n\nfunction pearsonR(a: number[], b: number[]): number {\n  if (a.length !== b.length || a.length < 2) return NaN\n  const mA = a.reduce((s, v) => s + v, 0) / a.length\n  const mB = b.reduce((s, v) => s + v, 0) / b.length\n  let num = 0,\n    dA = 0,\n    dB = 0\n  for (let i = 0; i < a.length; i++) {\n    const da = a[i]! - mA\n    const db = b[i]! - mB\n    num += da * db\n    dA += da * da\n    dB += db * db\n  }\n  if (dA === 0 || dB === 0) return dA === 0 && dB === 0 ? 1 : 0\n  return num / Math.sqrt(dA * dB)\n}\n\n/** Quadratic weighted Cohen's κ over bounded integer scores. */\nfunction weightedKappa(a: number[], b: number[]): number {\n  if (a.length !== b.length || a.length === 0) return NaN\n  const min = Math.min(...a, ...b)\n  const max = Math.max(...a, ...b)\n  const K = max - min + 1\n  if (K < 2) return 1\n  const observed: number[][] = Array.from({ length: K }, () => new Array(K).fill(0))\n  const rowMarg = new Array(K).fill(0)\n  const colMarg = new Array(K).fill(0)\n  for (let i = 0; i < a.length; i++) {\n    const ai = a[i]! - min\n    const bi = b[i]! - min\n    const row = observed[ai]!\n    row[bi] = (row[bi] ?? 0) + 1\n    rowMarg[ai]++\n    colMarg[bi]++\n  }\n  let num = 0\n  let den = 0\n  for (let i = 0; i < K; i++) {\n    for (let j = 0; j < K; j++) {\n      const w = (i - j) ** 2 / (K - 1) ** 2\n      const expected = (rowMarg[i] * colMarg[j]) / a.length\n      num += w * observed[i]![j]!\n      den += w * expected\n    }\n  }\n  if (den === 0) return 1\n  return 1 - num / den\n}\n\n// ── Continuous-value inter-rater agreement ──────────────────────────\n//\n// `weightedKappa` above quantises to integers. For [0,1] judges that is\n// lossy: 0.78 and 0.81 both round to 1 and look identical to integer κ.\n// `continuousAgreement` keeps the original magnitudes:\n//\n//   - κ_w   : Cohen's weighted κ generalised to continuous scores. For two\n//             raters, weighted κ = 1 − Σ w_ij·o_ij / Σ w_ij·e_ij collapses\n//             into the closed form below when each \"category\" is the score\n//             itself (Janson & Olsson 2001; Cohen 1968 quadratic weights).\n//   - ICC   : Intraclass Correlation Coefficient, ICC(2,1) per Shrout &\n//             Fleiss (1979) — two-way random effects, absolute agreement,\n//             single rater. The right reliability coefficient when judges\n//             are a random sample of the judge population.\n//   - r, ρ  : Pearson + Spearman for sanity-check. Pearson catches linear\n//             association regardless of scale; Spearman catches monotone\n//             association regardless of distribution.\n//   - CIs   : Bootstrap percentile CIs over items (rows). Bias is preserved\n//             because we resample the full row, i.e. a judge's vector\n//             stays internally consistent within each bootstrap replicate.\n//\n// References:\n//   - Shrout, P. E. & Fleiss, J. L. (1979). Intraclass correlations: uses\n//     in assessing rater reliability. Psychological Bulletin, 86(2), 420.\n//   - McGraw, K. O. & Wong, S. P. (1996). Forming inferences about some\n//     intraclass correlation coefficients. Psychological Methods, 1, 30.\n//   - Janson, H. & Olsson, U. (2001). A measure of agreement for interval\n//     or nominal multivariate observations. Educ. Psychol. Meas., 61, 277.\n\nexport interface ContinuousAgreement {\n  /** Cohen's κ_w with quadratic weights, computed on raw [0,1] scores. */\n  weightedKappa: number\n  /** ICC(2,1): two-way random effects, absolute agreement, single rater. */\n  icc: number\n  /** Pearson product-moment correlation (averaged over rater pairs if N>2). */\n  pearson: number\n  /** Spearman rank correlation (averaged over rater pairs if N>2). */\n  spearman: number\n  /** 95% bootstrap percentile CIs over items. */\n  ci: {\n    icc: [number, number]\n    weightedKappa: [number, number]\n  }\n  /** Number of complete items (no NaN across raters). */\n  n: number\n  /** Number of raters. */\n  raters: number\n}\n\nexport interface ContinuousAgreementOptions {\n  /** Bootstrap iterations. Default 1000. Set to 0 to skip CIs (CI = [NaN, NaN]). */\n  bootstrap?: number\n  /** κ weighting scheme. Default 'quadratic'. */\n  weights?: 'linear' | 'quadratic'\n  /** PRNG seed for reproducible bootstrap. Default 0xC0FFEE. */\n  seed?: number\n  /** Confidence level for percentile CI. Default 0.95. */\n  ciLevel?: number\n}\n\n/**\n * Inter-rater agreement on continuous (typically [0,1]) scores.\n *\n * `scores` has shape [n_items][n_raters]. Rows with any non-finite entry\n * are dropped. Returns NaN metrics if fewer than 2 raters or 2 complete\n * items remain.\n */\nexport function continuousAgreement(\n  scores: number[][],\n  opts: ContinuousAgreementOptions = {},\n): ContinuousAgreement {\n  const bootstrap = opts.bootstrap ?? 1000\n  const weights = opts.weights ?? 'quadratic'\n  const seed = opts.seed ?? 0xc0ffee\n  const ciLevel = opts.ciLevel ?? 0.95\n\n  const matrix = scores.filter((row) => row.length >= 2 && row.every((v) => Number.isFinite(v)))\n  const raters = matrix[0]?.length ?? 0\n  // All rows must have the same rater count, else drop the offenders.\n  const clean = matrix.filter((row) => row.length === raters)\n  const nClean = clean.length\n\n  if (nClean < 2 || raters < 2) {\n    return {\n      weightedKappa: NaN,\n      icc: NaN,\n      pearson: NaN,\n      spearman: NaN,\n      ci: { icc: [NaN, NaN], weightedKappa: [NaN, NaN] },\n      n: nClean,\n      raters,\n    }\n  }\n\n  const kappa = continuousWeightedKappa(clean, weights)\n  const icc = icc21(clean)\n  const pearson = avgPairwise(clean, pearsonR)\n  const spearman = avgPairwise(clean, spearmanR)\n\n  const ciIcc: [number, number] = [NaN, NaN]\n  const ciKappa: [number, number] = [NaN, NaN]\n  if (bootstrap > 0) {\n    const rng = mulberry32(seed)\n    const iccs: number[] = []\n    const kappas: number[] = []\n    for (let b = 0; b < bootstrap; b++) {\n      const sample: number[][] = new Array(nClean)\n      for (let i = 0; i < nClean; i++) {\n        sample[i] = clean[Math.floor(rng() * nClean)]!\n      }\n      const iccB = icc21(sample)\n      const kB = continuousWeightedKappa(sample, weights)\n      if (Number.isFinite(iccB)) iccs.push(iccB)\n      if (Number.isFinite(kB)) kappas.push(kB)\n    }\n    const [lo, hi] = percentileBounds(ciLevel)\n    if (iccs.length > 0) {\n      iccs.sort((a, b) => a - b)\n      ciIcc[0] = quantile(iccs, lo)\n      ciIcc[1] = quantile(iccs, hi)\n    }\n    if (kappas.length > 0) {\n      kappas.sort((a, b) => a - b)\n      ciKappa[0] = quantile(kappas, lo)\n      ciKappa[1] = quantile(kappas, hi)\n    }\n  }\n\n  return {\n    weightedKappa: kappa,\n    icc,\n    pearson,\n    spearman,\n    ci: { icc: ciIcc, weightedKappa: ciKappa },\n    n: nClean,\n    raters,\n  }\n}\n\nexport interface ContinuousCalibrationResult extends CalibrationResult {\n  /** Cohen's κ_w computed on raw (un-rounded) scores. */\n  weightedKappaContinuous: number\n  /** ICC(2,1) treating golden + candidate as two raters. */\n  icc: number\n  spearman: number\n  ci: {\n    icc: [number, number]\n    weightedKappa: [number, number]\n  }\n}\n\n/**\n * Drop-in superset of `calibrateJudge` that adds continuous-value\n * agreement metrics. The old fields (n, pearson, kappa, mae, worstItems)\n * are preserved unchanged so existing callers continue to work.\n */\nexport function calibrateJudgeContinuous(\n  golden: GoldenItem[],\n  candidate: CandidateScore[],\n  opts: ContinuousAgreementOptions = {},\n): ContinuousCalibrationResult {\n  const base = calibrateJudge(golden, candidate)\n  const map = new Map<string, { h: number; j: number }>()\n  for (const g of golden) map.set(g.itemId, { h: g.humanScore, j: NaN })\n  for (const c of candidate) {\n    const entry = map.get(c.itemId)\n    if (entry) entry.j = c.score\n  }\n  const rows: number[][] = []\n  for (const v of map.values()) {\n    if (Number.isFinite(v.j)) rows.push([v.h, v.j])\n  }\n  const agreement = continuousAgreement(rows, opts)\n  return {\n    ...base,\n    weightedKappaContinuous: agreement.weightedKappa,\n    icc: agreement.icc,\n    spearman: agreement.spearman,\n    ci: agreement.ci,\n  }\n}\n\n// ── Continuous-agreement internals ──────────────────────────────────\n\n/**\n * Quadratic-weighted κ on continuous scores. With weights w(x,y) = (x-y)^2\n * (or |x-y| for linear) the formula collapses to:\n *\n *   κ_w = 1 − E_obs[w] / E_exp[w]\n *\n * where E_obs averages w over paired (a_i, b_i) and E_exp averages w over\n * the independent product distribution (sum_{i,j} w(a_i, b_j) / n^2).\n * The normalisation by (max-min)^2 in the integer version cancels in the\n * ratio, so we don't need it here. Generalises to N raters by averaging κ_w\n * over all rater pairs (mean pairwise weighted agreement).\n */\nfunction continuousWeightedKappa(rows: number[][], scheme: 'linear' | 'quadratic'): number {\n  if (rows.length === 0) return NaN\n  const raters = rows[0]!.length\n  if (raters < 2) return NaN\n  const wFn =\n    scheme === 'linear'\n      ? (x: number, y: number) => Math.abs(x - y)\n      : (x: number, y: number) => (x - y) ** 2\n  let sum = 0\n  let pairs = 0\n  for (let r1 = 0; r1 < raters; r1++) {\n    for (let r2 = r1 + 1; r2 < raters; r2++) {\n      const a = rows.map((row) => row[r1]!)\n      const b = rows.map((row) => row[r2]!)\n      const n = a.length\n      let obs = 0\n      for (let i = 0; i < n; i++) obs += wFn(a[i]!, b[i]!)\n      obs /= n\n      // Expected under independence: average of w over all i,j cross pairs.\n      let exp = 0\n      for (let i = 0; i < n; i++) {\n        for (let j = 0; j < n; j++) exp += wFn(a[i]!, b[j]!)\n      }\n      exp /= n * n\n      if (exp === 0) {\n        // Degenerate: at least one rater is constant. Convention: perfect\n        // agreement iff observed disagreement is also zero, else 0.\n        sum += obs === 0 ? 1 : 0\n      } else {\n        sum += 1 - obs / exp\n      }\n      pairs++\n    }\n  }\n  return pairs === 0 ? NaN : sum / pairs\n}\n\n/**\n * ICC(2,1) — two-way random effects, absolute agreement, single rater.\n *\n *   ICC(2,1) = (MSR − MSE) / (MSR + (k−1)·MSE + k·(MSC − MSE)/n)\n *\n * where MSR = between-rows MS, MSC = between-columns MS, MSE = residual MS,\n * n = rows (items), k = columns (raters).\n */\nfunction icc21(rows: number[][]): number {\n  const n = rows.length\n  if (n < 2) return NaN\n  const k = rows[0]!.length\n  if (k < 2) return NaN\n\n  // Row means.\n  const rowMeans = rows.map((row) => row.reduce((s, v) => s + v, 0) / k)\n  // Column means.\n  const colMeans = new Array(k).fill(0)\n  for (let j = 0; j < k; j++) {\n    let s = 0\n    for (let i = 0; i < n; i++) s += rows[i]![j]!\n    colMeans[j] = s / n\n  }\n  // Grand mean.\n  let grand = 0\n  for (let i = 0; i < n; i++) grand += rowMeans[i]!\n  grand /= n\n\n  let ssR = 0\n  for (let i = 0; i < n; i++) ssR += (rowMeans[i]! - grand) ** 2\n  ssR *= k\n  let ssC = 0\n  for (let j = 0; j < k; j++) ssC += (colMeans[j]! - grand) ** 2\n  ssC *= n\n  let ssT = 0\n  for (let i = 0; i < n; i++) {\n    for (let j = 0; j < k; j++) ssT += (rows[i]![j]! - grand) ** 2\n  }\n  const ssE = ssT - ssR - ssC\n\n  const dfR = n - 1\n  const dfC = k - 1\n  const dfE = (n - 1) * (k - 1)\n  const msR = ssR / dfR\n  const msC = ssC / dfC\n  const msE = dfE > 0 ? ssE / dfE : 0\n\n  const denom = msR + (k - 1) * msE + (k * (msC - msE)) / n\n  if (denom === 0) {\n    // Degenerate (all values equal): convention = 1 if rows identical,\n    // else 0. Identical rows ⇒ msR = 0 too, so msR − msE near 0.\n    return msR === 0 && msE === 0 ? 1 : 0\n  }\n  return (msR - msE) / denom\n}\n\n/** Average pairwise statistic over all rater pairs. */\nfunction avgPairwise(rows: number[][], fn: (a: number[], b: number[]) => number): number {\n  const k = rows[0]?.length ?? 0\n  if (k < 2) return NaN\n  let sum = 0\n  let pairs = 0\n  for (let i = 0; i < k; i++) {\n    for (let j = i + 1; j < k; j++) {\n      const a = rows.map((row) => row[i]!)\n      const b = rows.map((row) => row[j]!)\n      const r = fn(a, b)\n      if (Number.isFinite(r)) {\n        sum += r\n        pairs++\n      }\n    }\n  }\n  return pairs === 0 ? NaN : sum / pairs\n}\n\n/** Spearman rank correlation. Ties get average ranks. */\nfunction spearmanR(a: number[], b: number[]): number {\n  if (a.length !== b.length || a.length < 2) return NaN\n  return pearsonR(rankWithTies(a), rankWithTies(b))\n}\n\nfunction rankWithTies(xs: number[]): number[] {\n  const n = xs.length\n  const indexed = xs.map((v, i) => ({ v, i }))\n  indexed.sort((x, y) => x.v - y.v)\n  const ranks = new Array(n).fill(0)\n  let i = 0\n  while (i < n) {\n    let j = i\n    while (j + 1 < n && indexed[j + 1]!.v === indexed[i]!.v) j++\n    // Average rank for ties (ranks are 1-indexed).\n    const avg = (i + j) / 2 + 1\n    for (let k = i; k <= j; k++) ranks[indexed[k]!.i] = avg\n    i = j + 1\n  }\n  return ranks\n}\n\n/** Seeded PRNG — Mulberry32. Deterministic across platforms. */\nfunction mulberry32(seed: number): () => number {\n  let a = seed >>> 0\n  return () => {\n    a = (a + 0x6d2b79f5) >>> 0\n    let t = a\n    t = Math.imul(t ^ (t >>> 15), t | 1)\n    t ^= t + Math.imul(t ^ (t >>> 7), t | 61)\n    return ((t ^ (t >>> 14)) >>> 0) / 4294967296\n  }\n}\n\nfunction percentileBounds(ciLevel: number): [number, number] {\n  const tail = (1 - ciLevel) / 2\n  return [tail, 1 - tail]\n}\n\n/** Linear-interpolated quantile of a pre-sorted ascending array. */\nfunction quantile(sorted: number[], q: number): number {\n  if (sorted.length === 0) return NaN\n  if (sorted.length === 1) return sorted[0]!\n  const pos = q * (sorted.length - 1)\n  const lo = Math.floor(pos)\n  const hi = Math.ceil(pos)\n  if (lo === hi) return sorted[lo]!\n  const frac = pos - lo\n  return sorted[lo]! * (1 - frac) + sorted[hi]! * frac\n}\n","import { ValidationError } from './errors'\nimport {\n  type ContinuousAgreement,\n  type ContinuousAgreementOptions,\n  continuousAgreement,\n} from './judge-calibration'\nimport type { JudgeScore } from './types'\n\n/** Dimensions where lower raw score = better outcome (inverted semantics) */\nconst INVERTED_DIMENSIONS = new Set(['hallucination', 'false_confidence', 'worst_failure'])\n\n/**\n * Normalize scores so all dimensions follow \"higher = better\".\n * Inverted dimensions (hallucination, false_confidence, worst_failure)\n * already use inverted scoring in the prompt (10 = no hallucination),\n * but this function ensures consistency if raw scores leak through.\n */\nexport function normalizeScores(scores: JudgeScore[]): JudgeScore[] {\n  return scores.map((s) => {\n    if (INVERTED_DIMENSIONS.has(s.dimension)) {\n      return s\n    }\n    return s\n  })\n}\n\n/** Weighted mean — falls back to uniform weights when omitted */\nexport function weightedMean(scores: { score: number; weight?: number }[]): number {\n  if (scores.length === 0) return 0\n  let totalWeight = 0\n  let weightedSum = 0\n  for (const { score, weight } of scores) {\n    const w = weight ?? 1\n    weightedSum += score * w\n    totalWeight += w\n  }\n  return totalWeight > 0 ? weightedSum / totalWeight : 0\n}\n\n/** Bootstrap confidence interval */\nexport function confidenceInterval(\n  scores: number[],\n  confidence = 0.95,\n  opts: { seed?: number; resamples?: number } = {},\n): { mean: number; lower: number; upper: number } {\n  if (scores.length === 0) return { mean: 0, lower: 0, upper: 0 }\n  if (scores.length === 1) return { mean: scores[0]!, lower: scores[0]!, upper: scores[0]! }\n\n  const n = scores.length\n  const mean = scores.reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0) / n\n\n  const B = opts.resamples ?? 1000\n  const rng = makeRng(opts.seed)\n  const bootstrapMeans: number[] = []\n\n  for (let i = 0; i < B; i++) {\n    let sum = 0\n    for (let j = 0; j < n; j++) {\n      sum += scores[Math.floor(rng() * n)]!\n    }\n    bootstrapMeans.push(sum / n)\n  }\n\n  bootstrapMeans.sort((a, b) => a - b)\n\n  const alpha = 1 - confidence\n  const lowerIdx = Math.floor((alpha / 2) * B)\n  const upperIdx = Math.floor((1 - alpha / 2) * B) - 1\n\n  return {\n    mean,\n    lower: bootstrapMeans[lowerIdx]!,\n    upper: bootstrapMeans[Math.min(upperIdx, B - 1)]!,\n  }\n}\n\n/**\n * Inter-rater reliability — simplified Krippendorff's alpha.\n *\n * Each inner array is one judge's scores for all items.\n * All arrays must have the same length (same items scored).\n */\nexport function interRaterReliability(judgeScores: JudgeScore[][]): number {\n  if (judgeScores.length < 2) return 1\n\n  // Group scores by dimension across judges\n  const dimensionMap = new Map<string, number[][]>()\n  for (const judgeSet of judgeScores) {\n    for (const s of judgeSet) {\n      if (!dimensionMap.has(s.dimension)) dimensionMap.set(s.dimension, [])\n      const arr = dimensionMap.get(s.dimension)!\n      if (arr.length === 0 || arr[arr.length - 1]!.length >= judgeScores.length) {\n        arr.push([s.score])\n      } else {\n        arr[arr.length - 1]!.push(s.score)\n      }\n    }\n  }\n\n  // Collect all paired ratings\n  const allValues: number[] = []\n  const pairDiffs: number[] = []\n\n  for (const items of dimensionMap.values()) {\n    for (const ratings of items) {\n      if (ratings.length < 2) continue\n      for (const v of ratings) allValues.push(v)\n      for (let i = 0; i < ratings.length; i++) {\n        for (let j = i + 1; j < ratings.length; j++) {\n          pairDiffs.push((ratings[i]! - ratings[j]!) ** 2)\n        }\n      }\n    }\n  }\n\n  if (pairDiffs.length === 0 || allValues.length < 2) return 1\n\n  const observedDisagreement = pairDiffs.reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0) / pairDiffs.length\n\n  // Expected disagreement from all possible pairings of values\n  let expectedDisagreement = 0\n  let expectedCount = 0\n  for (let i = 0; i < allValues.length; i++) {\n    for (let j = i + 1; j < allValues.length; j++) {\n      expectedDisagreement += (allValues[i]! - allValues[j]!) ** 2\n      expectedCount++\n    }\n  }\n  expectedDisagreement = expectedCount > 0 ? expectedDisagreement / expectedCount : 0\n\n  if (expectedDisagreement === 0) return 1\n  return 1 - observedDisagreement / expectedDisagreement\n}\n\n/**\n * Mann-Whitney U test for comparing two independent groups.\n * Returns U statistic and approximate p-value (normal approximation).\n */\nexport function mannWhitneyU(a: number[], b: number[]): { u: number; p: number } {\n  if (a.length === 0 || b.length === 0) return { u: 0, p: 1 }\n\n  const n1 = a.length\n  const n2 = b.length\n\n  // Rank all values together\n  const combined = [\n    ...a.map((v) => ({ v, group: 'a' as const })),\n    ...b.map((v) => ({ v, group: 'b' as const })),\n  ].sort((x, y) => x.v - y.v)\n\n  // Assign ranks with tie handling\n  const ranks: number[] = new Array(combined.length)\n  let i = 0\n  while (i < combined.length) {\n    let j = i\n    while (j < combined.length && combined[j]!.v === combined[i]!.v) j++\n    const avgRank = (i + 1 + j) / 2\n    for (let k = i; k < j; k++) ranks[k] = avgRank\n    i = j\n  }\n\n  // Sum ranks for group a\n  let r1 = 0\n  for (let k = 0; k < combined.length; k++) {\n    if (combined[k]!.group === 'a') r1 += ranks[k]!\n  }\n\n  const u1 = r1 - (n1 * (n1 + 1)) / 2\n  const u2 = n1 * n2 - u1\n  const u = Math.min(u1, u2)\n\n  // Normal approximation for p-value\n  const mu = (n1 * n2) / 2\n  const sigma = Math.sqrt((n1 * n2 * (n1 + n2 + 1)) / 12)\n\n  if (sigma === 0) return { u, p: 1 }\n\n  const z = Math.abs(u - mu) / sigma\n  // Two-tailed p-value from z-score (approximation)\n  const p = 2 * (1 - normalCdf(z))\n\n  return { u, p }\n}\n\n/** Partial credit: returns 0-1 ratio of current toward target */\nexport function partialCredit(current: number, target: number): number {\n  if (target <= 0) return 1\n  return Math.min(1, Math.max(0, current / target))\n}\n\n/**\n * Paired t-test — before/after measurements on the SAME items.\n * Pairing removes inter-item variance, giving tighter significance than\n * an unpaired test when comparing prompt v1 vs prompt v2 on identical\n * scenarios.\n */\nexport function pairedTTest(\n  before: number[],\n  after: number[],\n): { t: number; df: number; p: number } {\n  if (before.length !== after.length) {\n    throw new ValidationError(\n      `pairedTTest: unequal sample sizes (${before.length} vs ${after.length})`,\n    )\n  }\n  const n = before.length\n  if (n < 2) return { t: 0, df: 0, p: 1 }\n\n  const diffs = before.map((b, i) => after[i]! - b)\n  const mean = diffs.reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0) / n\n  const variance = diffs.reduce((acc, d) => acc + (d - mean) ** 2, 0) / (n - 1)\n  const se = Math.sqrt(variance / n)\n  if (se === 0) return { t: mean === 0 ? 0 : Infinity, df: n - 1, p: mean === 0 ? 1 : 0 }\n\n  const t = mean / se\n  const df = n - 1\n  const p = 2 * (1 - studentTCdf(Math.abs(t), df))\n  return { t, df, p }\n}\n\n/**\n * Wilcoxon signed-rank test — paired non-parametric alternative.\n * Use when the differences aren't normally distributed.\n */\nexport function wilcoxonSignedRank(before: number[], after: number[]): { w: number; p: number } {\n  if (before.length !== after.length) {\n    throw new ValidationError(\n      `wilcoxonSignedRank: unequal sample sizes (${before.length} vs ${after.length})`,\n    )\n  }\n  const diffs = before.map((b, i) => after[i]! - b).filter((d) => d !== 0)\n  const n = diffs.length\n  if (n < 6) return { w: 0, p: 1 }\n\n  const absRanks = diffs\n    .map((d, i) => ({ abs: Math.abs(d), sign: Math.sign(d), i }))\n    .sort((a, b) => a.abs - b.abs)\n  const ranks: number[] = new Array(n)\n  let i = 0\n  while (i < n) {\n    let j = i\n    while (j < n && absRanks[j]!.abs === absRanks[i]!.abs) j++\n    const avg = (i + 1 + j) / 2\n    for (let k = i; k < j; k++) ranks[absRanks[k]!.i] = avg\n    i = j\n  }\n  let wPlus = 0\n  for (let k = 0; k < n; k++) if (diffs[k]! > 0) wPlus += ranks[k]!\n\n  const mean = (n * (n + 1)) / 4\n  const variance = (n * (n + 1) * (2 * n + 1)) / 24\n  const z = (wPlus - mean) / Math.sqrt(variance)\n  const p = 2 * (1 - normalCdf(Math.abs(z)))\n  return { w: wPlus, p }\n}\n\n/**\n * Cohen's d — standardized effect size for two independent groups.\n * Positive d means group b has higher mean than group a.\n * Rule of thumb: |d| < 0.2 negligible, 0.2–0.5 small, 0.5–0.8 medium, > 0.8 large.\n */\nexport function cohensD(a: number[], b: number[]): number {\n  if (a.length < 2 || b.length < 2) return 0\n  const meanA = a.reduce((x, y) => x + y, 0) / a.length\n  const meanB = b.reduce((x, y) => x + y, 0) / b.length\n  const varA = a.reduce((acc, x) => acc + (x - meanA) ** 2, 0) / (a.length - 1)\n  const varB = b.reduce((acc, x) => acc + (x - meanB) ** 2, 0) / (b.length - 1)\n  const pooled = Math.sqrt(\n    ((a.length - 1) * varA + (b.length - 1) * varB) / (a.length + b.length - 2),\n  )\n  if (pooled === 0) return 0\n  return (meanB - meanA) / pooled\n}\n\n// ── Corpus-wide inter-rater agreement ──────────────────────────────\n//\n// The legacy `interRaterReliability(judgeScores)` computes a within-item\n// Krippendorff α — multiple judges score *the same item* and we ask\n// \"how much do their scores agree on that item?\" Useful for a single\n// scenario, but it cannot answer \"how reliable are these judges across\n// the whole evaluation corpus?\"\n//\n// `corpusInterRaterAgreement` does the corpus-wide question properly.\n// Inputs are flat per-(item, judge, dimension) score records. For each\n// dimension we pivot to a complete [n_items × n_judges] matrix and feed\n// it to the ICC(2,1) + κ_w machinery already validated in\n// `judge-calibration.ts`. An overall pooled metric averages the\n// per-dimension ICC/κ across dimensions.\n\nexport interface CorpusScoreRecord {\n  /** Stable identifier for the rated item (scenario, span, turn, …). */\n  itemId: string\n  /** Identifier for the judge that produced this score. */\n  judgeName: string\n  /** Dimension name (matches `JudgeScore.dimension`). */\n  dimension: string\n  /** Numeric score; must be finite. */\n  score: number\n}\n\nexport interface CorpusAgreementPerDimension extends ContinuousAgreement {\n  dimension: string\n  /** Item IDs that contributed to this dimension's matrix (every judge scored them). */\n  itemIds: string[]\n  /** Judge IDs that contributed to this dimension's matrix. */\n  judgeIds: string[]\n}\n\nexport interface CorpusAgreementReport {\n  /** Per-dimension ICC(2,1) + κ_w + Pearson + Spearman + bootstrap CIs. */\n  perDimension: CorpusAgreementPerDimension[]\n  /** Mean ICC across dimensions (NaN if no dimension yielded a finite ICC). */\n  overallIcc: number\n  /** Mean weighted κ across dimensions (NaN if none finite). */\n  overallWeightedKappa: number\n  /** Dimensions evaluated (sorted). */\n  dimensions: string[]\n  /** Judges seen across the corpus (sorted). */\n  judgeIds: string[]\n}\n\nexport interface CorpusAgreementOptions extends ContinuousAgreementOptions {\n  /**\n   * Restrict the audit to these dimensions. Default = every dimension\n   * that appears in the input. A dimension named here but absent from\n   * the input throws — silent omission would corrupt the overall metric.\n   */\n  dimensions?: string[]\n  /**\n   * Restrict the audit to these judges. Default = every judge that\n   * appears in the input. A judge named here but absent from a\n   * dimension throws (see \"fail loud\" below).\n   */\n  judges?: string[]\n}\n\n/**\n * Corpus-wide inter-rater agreement across N items × M judges × D dimensions.\n *\n * For each dimension, builds the [n_items][n_judges] matrix of scores\n * (keeping only items every judge rated on that dimension), then runs\n * `continuousAgreement` to get ICC(2,1), κ_w, Pearson, Spearman, and\n * bootstrap CIs. Reports a pooled mean across dimensions as a single\n * \"is this judge panel reliable on this corpus?\" number.\n *\n * Fail-loud contract:\n *   - Empty input throws.\n *   - Fewer than 2 judges or fewer than 2 items per dimension throws.\n *   - A judge present in some dimensions but with zero scored items on\n *     another dimension throws (would silently shrink the matrix).\n *   - Duplicate (itemId, judgeName, dimension) records throw.\n */\nexport function corpusInterRaterAgreement(\n  records: CorpusScoreRecord[],\n  opts: CorpusAgreementOptions = {},\n): CorpusAgreementReport {\n  if (records.length === 0) {\n    throw new ValidationError('corpusInterRaterAgreement: no score records supplied')\n  }\n\n  const judgesSeen = new Set<string>()\n  const dimsSeen = new Set<string>()\n  // dimension → judge → itemId → score\n  const grid = new Map<string, Map<string, Map<string, number>>>()\n\n  for (const r of records) {\n    if (!Number.isFinite(r.score)) {\n      throw new ValidationError(\n        `corpusInterRaterAgreement: non-finite score for (item=${r.itemId}, judge=${r.judgeName}, dim=${r.dimension})`,\n      )\n    }\n    judgesSeen.add(r.judgeName)\n    dimsSeen.add(r.dimension)\n    const byJudge = grid.get(r.dimension) ?? new Map<string, Map<string, number>>()\n    const byItem = byJudge.get(r.judgeName) ?? new Map<string, number>()\n    if (byItem.has(r.itemId)) {\n      throw new ValidationError(\n        `corpusInterRaterAgreement: duplicate record for (item=${r.itemId}, judge=${r.judgeName}, dim=${r.dimension})`,\n      )\n    }\n    byItem.set(r.itemId, r.score)\n    byJudge.set(r.judgeName, byItem)\n    grid.set(r.dimension, byJudge)\n  }\n\n  const targetDims = opts.dimensions ?? [...dimsSeen].sort()\n  for (const d of targetDims) {\n    if (!dimsSeen.has(d)) {\n      throw new ValidationError(\n        `corpusInterRaterAgreement: dimension '${d}' was requested but no records carry it`,\n      )\n    }\n  }\n  const targetJudges = opts.judges ? [...opts.judges] : [...judgesSeen].sort()\n  for (const j of targetJudges) {\n    if (!judgesSeen.has(j)) {\n      throw new ValidationError(\n        `corpusInterRaterAgreement: judge '${j}' was requested but produced no records`,\n      )\n    }\n  }\n  if (targetJudges.length < 2) {\n    throw new ValidationError(\n      `corpusInterRaterAgreement: need ≥2 judges, got ${targetJudges.length}`,\n    )\n  }\n\n  const perDimension: CorpusAgreementPerDimension[] = []\n  const iccs: number[] = []\n  const kappas: number[] = []\n\n  for (const dim of targetDims) {\n    const byJudge = grid.get(dim)!\n    // Fail loud: every requested judge must have scored ≥1 item on this dim.\n    const judgeItemCounts: Record<string, number> = {}\n    for (const j of targetJudges) {\n      const m = byJudge.get(j)\n      judgeItemCounts[j] = m?.size ?? 0\n    }\n    const emptyJudges = targetJudges.filter((j) => judgeItemCounts[j] === 0)\n    if (emptyJudges.length > 0) {\n      throw new ValidationError(\n        `corpusInterRaterAgreement: dimension '${dim}' has no scores from judge(s) ${emptyJudges.join(', ')} (counts: ${JSON.stringify(judgeItemCounts)})`,\n      )\n    }\n\n    // Items rated by *every* requested judge on this dim.\n    let commonItems: Set<string> | null = null\n    for (const j of targetJudges) {\n      const ids = new Set(byJudge.get(j)!.keys())\n      if (commonItems === null) {\n        commonItems = ids\n      } else {\n        const prev: Set<string> = commonItems\n        commonItems = new Set([...prev].filter((x) => ids.has(x)))\n      }\n    }\n    const sortedItems = [...(commonItems ?? new Set<string>())].sort()\n    if (sortedItems.length < 2) {\n      throw new ValidationError(\n        `corpusInterRaterAgreement: dimension '${dim}' has ${sortedItems.length} item(s) rated by all ${targetJudges.length} judges (need ≥2)`,\n      )\n    }\n\n    const matrix: number[][] = sortedItems.map((itemId) =>\n      targetJudges.map((j) => byJudge.get(j)!.get(itemId)!),\n    )\n    const agreement = continuousAgreement(matrix, opts)\n    perDimension.push({\n      ...agreement,\n      dimension: dim,\n      itemIds: sortedItems,\n      judgeIds: [...targetJudges],\n    })\n    if (Number.isFinite(agreement.icc)) iccs.push(agreement.icc)\n    if (Number.isFinite(agreement.weightedKappa)) kappas.push(agreement.weightedKappa)\n  }\n\n  const mean = (xs: number[]) =>\n    xs.length === 0 ? Number.NaN : xs.reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0) / xs.length\n  return {\n    perDimension,\n    overallIcc: mean(iccs),\n    overallWeightedKappa: mean(kappas),\n    dimensions: targetDims,\n    judgeIds: targetJudges,\n  }\n}\n\n/**\n * Convenience adapter for `JudgeScore[]` data keyed externally by item.\n *\n * Use when you have per-item arrays of `JudgeScore[]` (e.g. one\n * `ScenarioResult.judgeScores` per scenario) and want corpus-wide\n * agreement without manually flattening. `itemId` must be unique per\n * row of `itemsScores`.\n */\nexport function corpusInterRaterAgreementFromJudgeScores(\n  itemsScores: Array<{ itemId: string; scores: JudgeScore[] }>,\n  opts: CorpusAgreementOptions = {},\n): CorpusAgreementReport {\n  const records: CorpusScoreRecord[] = []\n  const seen = new Set<string>()\n  for (const { itemId, scores } of itemsScores) {\n    if (seen.has(itemId)) {\n      throw new ValidationError(\n        `corpusInterRaterAgreementFromJudgeScores: duplicate itemId '${itemId}'`,\n      )\n    }\n    seen.add(itemId)\n    for (const s of scores) {\n      records.push({\n        itemId,\n        judgeName: s.judgeName,\n        dimension: s.dimension,\n        score: s.score,\n      })\n    }\n  }\n  return corpusInterRaterAgreement(records, opts)\n}\n\n/** Student-t CDF approximation via Abramowitz-Stegun series. */\nfunction studentTCdf(t: number, df: number): number {\n  if (df <= 0) return 0.5\n  if (df > 100) return normalCdf(t)\n  const x = df / (df + t * t)\n  const a = df / 2\n  const b = 0.5\n  const ib = incompleteBeta(x, a, b)\n  return t >= 0 ? 1 - 0.5 * ib : 0.5 * ib\n}\n\n/** Regularized incomplete beta function via continued fraction (Lentz). */\nfunction incompleteBeta(x: number, a: number, b: number): number {\n  if (x <= 0) return 0\n  if (x >= 1) return 1\n  const lnBeta = lnGamma(a) + lnGamma(b) - lnGamma(a + b)\n  const front = Math.exp(Math.log(x) * a + Math.log(1 - x) * b - lnBeta) / a\n  const maxIter = 200\n  const eps = 3e-7\n  let c = 1\n  let d = 1 - ((a + b) * x) / (a + 1)\n  if (Math.abs(d) < 1e-30) d = 1e-30\n  d = 1 / d\n  let f = d\n  for (let m = 1; m <= maxIter; m++) {\n    const m2 = 2 * m\n    let num = (m * (b - m) * x) / ((a + m2 - 1) * (a + m2))\n    d = 1 + num * d\n    if (Math.abs(d) < 1e-30) d = 1e-30\n    c = 1 + num / c\n    if (Math.abs(c) < 1e-30) c = 1e-30\n    d = 1 / d\n    f *= d * c\n    num = -((a + m) * (a + b + m) * x) / ((a + m2) * (a + m2 + 1))\n    d = 1 + num * d\n    if (Math.abs(d) < 1e-30) d = 1e-30\n    c = 1 + num / c\n    if (Math.abs(c) < 1e-30) c = 1e-30\n    d = 1 / d\n    const delta = d * c\n    f *= delta\n    if (Math.abs(delta - 1) < eps) break\n  }\n  return front * f\n}\n\n/** Lanczos approximation to ln Γ(z). */\nfunction lnGamma(z: number): number {\n  const g = 7\n  const coefs = [\n    0.99999999999980993, 676.5203681218851, -1259.1392167224028, 771.32342877765313,\n    -176.61502916214059, 12.507343278686905, -0.13857109526572012, 9.9843695780195716e-6,\n    1.5056327351493116e-7,\n  ]\n  if (z < 0.5) {\n    return Math.log(Math.PI / Math.sin(Math.PI * z)) - lnGamma(1 - z)\n  }\n  z -= 1\n  let x = coefs[0]!\n  for (let i = 1; i < g + 2; i++) x += coefs[i]! / (z + i)\n  const t = z + g + 0.5\n  return 0.5 * Math.log(2 * Math.PI) + (z + 0.5) * Math.log(t) - t + Math.log(x)\n}\n\n// Standard normal CDF approximation (Abramowitz and Stegun)\nfunction normalCdf(x: number): number {\n  const a1 = 0.254829592\n  const a2 = -0.284496736\n  const a3 = 1.421413741\n  const a4 = -1.453152027\n  const a5 = 1.061405429\n  const p = 0.3275911\n\n  const sign = x < 0 ? -1 : 1\n  const absX = Math.abs(x)\n  const t = 1 / (1 + p * absX)\n  const y = 1 - ((((a5 * t + a4) * t + a3) * t + a2) * t + a1) * t * Math.exp((-absX * absX) / 2)\n\n  return 0.5 * (1 + sign * y)\n}\n\n// ── Power analysis + multiple-comparison correction ──────────────────\n\n/**\n * Required N per arm for a two-sample comparison at target effect size,\n * alpha, and power. Normal-approximation formula:\n *   n = 2 * ( (z_{1-α/2} + z_{1-β}) / d )^2\n * where d is Cohen's d. Returns Infinity for effect ≤ 0.\n */\nexport function requiredSampleSize(opts: {\n  effect: number\n  alpha?: number\n  power?: number\n  twoSided?: boolean\n}): number {\n  const effect = opts.effect\n  if (!Number.isFinite(effect) || effect <= 0) return Infinity\n  const alpha = opts.alpha ?? 0.05\n  const power = opts.power ?? 0.8\n  const twoSided = opts.twoSided ?? true\n  const zAlpha = zQuantile(twoSided ? 1 - alpha / 2 : 1 - alpha)\n  const zBeta = zQuantile(power)\n  const n = 2 * ((zAlpha + zBeta) / effect) ** 2\n  return Math.ceil(n)\n}\n\n/**\n * Minimum detectable paired effect (standardised units) for a target paired\n * sample size: d_min = (z_{1-α/2} + z_β) / sqrt(n_paired). Multiply by\n * sd(deltas) for score units; treat as a lower bound — Wilcoxon and bootstrap\n * have asymptotic relative efficiency below 1 vs the t-test on heavy tails.\n */\nexport function pairedMde(opts: {\n  nPaired: number\n  alpha?: number\n  power?: number\n  twoSided?: boolean\n}): number {\n  if (!Number.isFinite(opts.nPaired) || opts.nPaired <= 0) return Infinity\n  const alpha = opts.alpha ?? 0.05\n  const power = opts.power ?? 0.8\n  const twoSided = opts.twoSided ?? true\n  const zAlpha = zQuantile(twoSided ? 1 - alpha / 2 : 1 - alpha)\n  const zBeta = zQuantile(power)\n  return (zAlpha + zBeta) / Math.sqrt(opts.nPaired)\n}\n\n/** Bonferroni adjustment: multiply every p-value by the test count, clamp at 1. */\nexport function bonferroni(\n  pValues: number[],\n  alpha = 0.05,\n): { adjusted: number[]; significant: boolean[] } {\n  const k = pValues.length\n  const adjusted = pValues.map((p) => Math.min(1, p * k))\n  const significant = adjusted.map((p) => p < alpha)\n  return { adjusted, significant }\n}\n\n/**\n * Benjamini–Hochberg false discovery rate. Returns adjusted q-values and\n * significance at the target FDR; handles ties and preserves q monotonicity.\n */\nexport function benjaminiHochberg(\n  pValues: number[],\n  fdr = 0.05,\n): { qValues: number[]; significant: boolean[] } {\n  const n = pValues.length\n  if (n === 0) return { qValues: [], significant: [] }\n  const indexed = pValues.map((p, i) => ({ p, i })).sort((a, b) => a.p - b.p)\n  const q = new Array<number>(n)\n  let minRight = 1\n  for (let k = n - 1; k >= 0; k--) {\n    const rank = k + 1\n    const entry = indexed[k]!\n    const raw = (entry.p * n) / rank\n    const bounded = Math.min(minRight, raw)\n    minRight = bounded\n    q[entry.i] = Math.min(1, bounded)\n  }\n  const significant = q.map((v) => v < fdr)\n  return { qValues: q, significant }\n}\n\n// ── Paired bootstrap (promotion-gate effect size) ────────────────────\n\nexport interface PairedBootstrapResult {\n  /** Number of paired observations. */\n  n: number\n  /** Median of paired deltas (after − before). */\n  median: number\n  /** Mean of paired deltas. */\n  mean: number\n  /** Lower bound of the bootstrap CI on the chosen statistic. */\n  low: number\n  /** Upper bound of the bootstrap CI on the chosen statistic. */\n  high: number\n  /** Confidence level used (e.g. 0.95). */\n  confidence: number\n  /** Number of bootstrap resamples used. */\n  resamples: number\n}\n\nexport interface PairedBootstrapOptions {\n  /** Confidence level. Default 0.95. */\n  confidence?: number\n  /** Bootstrap resample count. Default 2000. */\n  resamples?: number\n  /** Statistic to bootstrap. Default 'median'. */\n  statistic?: 'median' | 'mean'\n  /** Deterministic seed. If omitted, uses Math.random(). */\n  seed?: number\n}\n\n/**\n * Paired bootstrap on (after − before) deltas. Returns a CI on the chosen\n * statistic (median by default); pairs are resampled with replacement. The\n * lower bound is what the promotion gate checks — `low > threshold` means the\n * gain is real at the confidence level. Throws on unequal sample sizes.\n */\nexport function pairedBootstrap(\n  before: number[],\n  after: number[],\n  opts: PairedBootstrapOptions = {},\n): PairedBootstrapResult {\n  if (before.length !== after.length) {\n    throw new Error(`pairedBootstrap: unequal sample sizes (${before.length} vs ${after.length})`)\n  }\n  const confidence = opts.confidence ?? 0.95\n  const resamples = opts.resamples ?? 2000\n  const statistic = opts.statistic ?? 'median'\n  if (confidence <= 0 || confidence >= 1) {\n    throw new Error(`pairedBootstrap: confidence must be in (0,1), got ${confidence}`)\n  }\n\n  const n = before.length\n  const deltas = before.map((b, i) => after[i]! - b)\n  if (n === 0) {\n    return { n: 0, median: 0, mean: 0, low: 0, high: 0, confidence, resamples }\n  }\n  if (n === 1) {\n    const d = deltas[0]!\n    return { n: 1, median: d, mean: d, low: d, high: d, confidence, resamples }\n  }\n\n  const rng = makeRng(opts.seed)\n  const samples = new Array<number>(resamples)\n  for (let b = 0; b < resamples; b++) {\n    if (statistic === 'mean') {\n      let sum = 0\n      for (let k = 0; k < n; k++) {\n        sum += deltas[Math.floor(rng() * n)]!\n      }\n      samples[b] = sum / n\n    } else {\n      const acc = new Array<number>(n)\n      for (let k = 0; k < n; k++) {\n        acc[k] = deltas[Math.floor(rng() * n)]!\n      }\n      samples[b] = medianInPlace(acc)\n    }\n  }\n  samples.sort((a, b) => a - b)\n\n  const alpha = 1 - confidence\n  const lowIdx = Math.floor((alpha / 2) * resamples)\n  const highIdx = Math.min(resamples - 1, Math.ceil((1 - alpha / 2) * resamples) - 1)\n\n  return {\n    n,\n    median: medianInPlace([...deltas]),\n    mean: deltas.reduce((s, x) => s + x, 0) / n,\n    low: samples[lowIdx]!,\n    high: samples[Math.max(highIdx, lowIdx)]!,\n    confidence,\n    resamples,\n  }\n}\n\n// ── private stats helpers ────────────────────────────────────────────\n\n/** Standard-normal inverse CDF (Acklam approximation). */\nfunction zQuantile(p: number): number {\n  if (p <= 0 || p >= 1) {\n    if (p === 0) return -Infinity\n    if (p === 1) return Infinity\n    return NaN\n  }\n  const a = [\n    -3.969683028665376e1, 2.209460984245205e2, -2.759285104469687e2, 1.38357751867269e2,\n    -3.066479806614716e1, 2.506628277459239,\n  ]\n  const b = [\n    -5.447609879822406e1, 1.615858368580409e2, -1.556989798598866e2, 6.680131188771972e1,\n    -1.328068155288572e1,\n  ]\n  const c = [\n    -7.784894002430293e-3, -3.223964580411365e-1, -2.400758277161838, -2.549732539343734,\n    4.374664141464968, 2.938163982698783,\n  ]\n  const d = [7.784695709041462e-3, 3.224671290700398e-1, 2.445134137142996, 3.754408661907416]\n  const pLow = 0.02425\n  const pHigh = 1 - pLow\n  let q: number\n  let r: number\n  if (p < pLow) {\n    q = Math.sqrt(-2 * Math.log(p))\n    return (\n      (((((c[0]! * q + c[1]!) * q + c[2]!) * q + c[3]!) * q + c[4]!) * q + c[5]!) /\n      ((((d[0]! * q + d[1]!) * q + d[2]!) * q + d[3]!) * q + 1)\n    )\n  }\n  if (p <= pHigh) {\n    q = p - 0.5\n    r = q * q\n    return (\n      ((((((a[0]! * r + a[1]!) * r + a[2]!) * r + a[3]!) * r + a[4]!) * r + a[5]!) * q) /\n      (((((b[0]! * r + b[1]!) * r + b[2]!) * r + b[3]!) * r + b[4]!) * r + 1)\n    )\n  }\n  q = Math.sqrt(-2 * Math.log(1 - p))\n  return (\n    -(((((c[0]! * q + c[1]!) * q + c[2]!) * q + c[3]!) * q + c[4]!) * q + c[5]!) /\n    ((((d[0]! * q + d[1]!) * q + d[2]!) * q + d[3]!) * q + 1)\n  )\n}\n\nfunction medianInPlace(xs: number[]): number {\n  if (xs.length === 0) return 0\n  xs.sort((a, b) => a - b)\n  const mid = Math.floor(xs.length / 2)\n  return xs.length % 2 === 0 ? (xs[mid - 1]! + xs[mid]!) / 2 : xs[mid]!\n}\n\n/** Tiny seedable PRNG (mulberry32) — deterministic bootstrap resampling, not cryptographic. */\nfunction makeRng(seed: number | undefined): () => number {\n  if (seed === undefined) return Math.random\n  let s = seed | 0 || 0x9e3779b9\n  return () => {\n    s = (s + 0x6d2b79f5) | 0\n    let t = s\n    t = Math.imul(t ^ (t >>> 15), t | 1)\n    t ^= t + Math.imul(t ^ (t >>> 7), t | 61)\n    return ((t ^ (t >>> 14)) >>> 0) / 4294967296\n  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