@tangle-network/agent-eval 0.51.0 → 0.53.0

package/dist/chunk-YXD7GWJI.js.map

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+{"version":3,"sources":["../src/campaign/auto-pr.ts","../src/campaign/drivers/evolutionary.ts","../src/campaign/drivers/gepa.ts","../src/campaign/gates/compose.ts","../src/campaign/gates/default-production-gate.ts","../src/campaign/gates/heldout-gate.ts","../src/campaign/presets/run-eval.ts","../src/campaign/presets/run-optimization.ts","../src/campaign/presets/run-improvement-loop.ts"],"sourcesContent":["/**\n * @experimental\n *\n * `openAutoPr` — thin shell-out helper for the `runImprovementLoop` preset's\n * `autoOnPromote: 'pr'` mode. Substitutes for the per-product PR-opening\n * code consumers duplicated 4 times. The PR body includes the campaign's\n * manifest hash, gate verdict, and scorecard summary so reviewers can see\n * exactly what was promoted + why.\n *\n * NOT a deploy mechanism — this only OPENS a PR. The human reviews + merges.\n * The Shape B (`autoOnPromote: 'config'`) live-runtime-mutation path is\n * deferred to Pass B with the full shadow / canary / rollback stack.\n */\n\nimport { execSync } from 'node:child_process'\nimport { writeFileSync } from 'node:fs'\nimport { tmpdir } from 'node:os'\nimport { join } from 'node:path'\nimport type { CampaignResult, GateResult, Scenario } from './types'\n\nexport interface OpenAutoPrOptions<TArtifact, TScenario extends Scenario> {\n  /** Campaign result to attach to the PR. */\n  result: CampaignResult<TArtifact, TScenario>\n  /** Gate verdict explaining the promotion. Substrate refuses to open a PR\n   *  when `gate.decision !== 'ship'` — fails loud. */\n  gate: GateResult\n  /** Promoted surface diff — typically the new system prompt addendum or\n   *  full profile diff. Substrate writes it as the PR body. */\n  promotedDiff: string\n  /** GH owner/repo target (e.g., `tangle-network/gtm-agent`). */\n  ghOwner: string\n  ghRepo: string\n  /** Branch name for the PR. Default `auto/<manifestHash[:12]>`. */\n  branch?: string\n  /** PR title. Default includes manifest hash. */\n  title?: string\n  /** Whether to actually open the PR or just dry-run. Default reads\n   *  `GH_AUTO_PR_TOKEN` env — present = open, absent = dry-run. */\n  dryRun?: boolean\n  /** Test seam — substitute `gh pr create` invocation. */\n  ghExec?: (args: string[]) => { stdout: string; stderr: string; status: number }\n}\n\nexport interface OpenAutoPrResult {\n  opened: boolean\n  prUrl?: string\n  dryRun: boolean\n  reason: string\n}\n\nexport function openAutoPr<TArtifact, TScenario extends Scenario>(\n  options: OpenAutoPrOptions<TArtifact, TScenario>,\n): OpenAutoPrResult {\n  if (options.gate.decision !== 'ship') {\n    return {\n      opened: false,\n      dryRun: false,\n      reason: `gate verdict was \"${options.gate.decision}\" — refusing to open PR`,\n    }\n  }\n\n  const dryRun = options.dryRun ?? !process.env.GH_AUTO_PR_TOKEN\n  const branch = options.branch ?? `auto/${options.result.manifestHash.slice(0, 12)}`\n  const title =\n    options.title ?? `auto: campaign ${options.result.manifestHash.slice(0, 8)} promoted by gate`\n\n  const body = renderPrBody(options.result, options.gate, options.promotedDiff)\n  const bodyPath = join(tmpdir(), `auto-pr-body-${Date.now()}.md`)\n  writeFileSync(bodyPath, body)\n\n  if (dryRun) {\n    return {\n      opened: false,\n      dryRun: true,\n      reason: `dry-run (GH_AUTO_PR_TOKEN not set). Would create PR on ${options.ghOwner}/${options.ghRepo} branch ${branch}. Body at ${bodyPath}.`,\n    }\n  }\n\n  const ghExec = options.ghExec ?? defaultGhExec\n  const result = ghExec([\n    'pr',\n    'create',\n    '--repo',\n    `${options.ghOwner}/${options.ghRepo}`,\n    '--head',\n    branch,\n    '--title',\n    title,\n    '--body-file',\n    bodyPath,\n  ])\n  if (result.status !== 0) {\n    return {\n      opened: false,\n      dryRun: false,\n      reason: `gh pr create failed (exit ${result.status}): ${result.stderr.slice(0, 400)}`,\n    }\n  }\n  const prUrl = result.stdout.trim()\n  return { opened: true, prUrl, dryRun: false, reason: 'PR opened' }\n}\n\nfunction renderPrBody<TArtifact, TScenario extends Scenario>(\n  result: CampaignResult<TArtifact, TScenario>,\n  gate: GateResult,\n  diff: string,\n): string {\n  const lines: string[] = []\n  lines.push(`## Automated promotion by \\`runImprovementLoop\\``)\n  lines.push('')\n  lines.push(`**Manifest**: \\`${result.manifestHash}\\``)\n  lines.push(`**Seed**: ${result.seed}`)\n  lines.push(`**Duration**: ${Math.round(result.durationMs / 1000)}s`)\n  lines.push(\n    `**Cells**: executed ${result.aggregates.cellsExecuted}, cached ${result.aggregates.cellsCached}, skipped ${result.aggregates.cellsSkipped}, failed ${result.aggregates.cellsFailed}`,\n  )\n  lines.push(`**Total spend**: $${result.aggregates.totalCostUsd.toFixed(2)}`)\n  lines.push('')\n  lines.push(`### Gate verdict: \\`${gate.decision}\\``)\n  lines.push('')\n  for (const reason of gate.reasons) lines.push(`- ${reason}`)\n  if (gate.delta !== undefined) lines.push(`- delta: ${gate.delta.toFixed(3)}`)\n  lines.push('')\n  lines.push('### Contributing gates')\n  lines.push('')\n  lines.push('| gate | passed | detail |')\n  lines.push('|---|---|---|')\n  for (const c of gate.contributingGates) {\n    const detail =\n      typeof c.detail === 'object'\n        ? JSON.stringify(c.detail).slice(0, 80)\n        : String(c.detail).slice(0, 80)\n    lines.push(`| ${c.name} | ${c.passed ? '✓' : '✗'} | ${detail} |`)\n  }\n  lines.push('')\n  lines.push('### Promoted surface')\n  lines.push('')\n  lines.push('```diff')\n  lines.push(diff.slice(0, 8000))\n  lines.push('```')\n  lines.push('')\n  lines.push('### By-judge aggregates')\n  lines.push('')\n  lines.push('| judge | mean | ci95 | n |')\n  lines.push('|---|---|---|---|')\n  for (const [name, agg] of Object.entries(result.aggregates.byJudge)) {\n    lines.push(\n      `| ${name} | ${agg.mean.toFixed(3)} | [${agg.ci95[0].toFixed(3)}, ${agg.ci95[1].toFixed(3)}] | ${agg.n} |`,\n    )\n  }\n  return lines.join('\\n')\n}\n\nfunction defaultGhExec(args: string[]): { stdout: string; stderr: string; status: number } {\n  try {\n    const stdout = execSync(`gh ${args.map(quoteArg).join(' ')}`, {\n      env: { ...process.env, GH_TOKEN: process.env.GH_AUTO_PR_TOKEN ?? process.env.GH_TOKEN ?? '' },\n      stdio: ['ignore', 'pipe', 'pipe'],\n    }).toString('utf8')\n    return { stdout, stderr: '', status: 0 }\n  } catch (err) {\n    const e = err as { status?: number; stderr?: Buffer; stdout?: Buffer }\n    return {\n      stdout: e.stdout?.toString('utf8') ?? '',\n      stderr: e.stderr?.toString('utf8') ?? '',\n      status: e.status ?? 1,\n    }\n  }\n}\n\nfunction quoteArg(arg: string): string {\n  if (/^[a-zA-Z0-9_/\\-:.@]+$/.test(arg)) return arg\n  return `\"${arg.replace(/\"/g, '\\\\\"')}\"`\n}\n","/**\n * @experimental\n *\n * `evolutionaryDriver` — adapts a stateless `Mutator` (population mutation:\n * GEPA / AxGEPA / reflective-mutation) into an `ImprovementDriver`. This is\n * the evolutionary strategy: each generation, mutate the current best surface\n * into N candidates, measure, select. No generation memory beyond the current\n * surface; the loop body handles ranking + promotion.\n *\n * The reflective alternative is agent-runtime's `improvementDriver` with a\n * `reflectiveGenerator` / `agenticGenerator`: it reasons over the report +\n * trace findings to propose targeted edits rather than blind mutations. Both\n * conform to `ImprovementDriver`; the improvement loop is identical regardless\n * of which drives it.\n */\n\nimport type { ImprovementDriver, Mutator } from '../types'\n\nexport interface EvolutionaryDriverOptions<TFindings = unknown> {\n  mutator: Mutator<TFindings>\n  /** External findings fed to the mutator each generation. Default: []. */\n  findings?: TFindings[]\n}\n\nexport function evolutionaryDriver<TFindings = unknown>(\n  opts: EvolutionaryDriverOptions<TFindings>,\n): ImprovementDriver<TFindings> {\n  return {\n    kind: `evolutionary:${opts.mutator.kind}`,\n    async propose({ currentSurface, findings, populationSize, signal }) {\n      return opts.mutator.mutate({\n        findings: findings.length > 0 ? findings : (opts.findings ?? []),\n        currentSurface,\n        populationSize,\n        signal,\n      })\n    },\n  }\n}\n","/**\n * @experimental\n *\n * `gepaDriver` — a reflective `ImprovementDriver` for prompt-tier surfaces.\n * Each generation it reflects on the prior best candidate's per-scenario\n * scores + weakest dimensions, asks an LLM to propose targeted rewrites of\n * the current surface, and returns them as the next population.\n *\n * Honest scope vs the GEPA paper (Agrawal et al., arXiv:2507.19457):\n * this driver implements the *reflection* primitive — it does NOT implement\n * GEPA's Pareto frontier of candidates, multi-objective non-dominated\n * tracking, or the combine-complementary-lessons step. We use \"best by\n * composite\" as the parent each generation; the paper retains a Pareto set\n * and combines lessons across non-dominated candidates. Tracked as #101 in\n * the substrate roadmap. See `docs/specs/driver-honest-spec.md`.\n *\n * Optional `constraints` move structured-doc guards into the driver\n * (preserve H2 section headings, cap sentence-level edits) — useful when\n * the surface IS a structured procedure like a SKILL.md / runbook /\n * judge rubric. When `constraints` is omitted, behavior is unchanged.\n *\n * The driver is surface-agnostic — any string surface in any consumer opts\n * in by selecting it. Reuses the generic reflection primitive\n * (`buildReflectionPrompt` / `parseReflectionResponse`) and the router\n * client; no dependency on the legacy `runMultiShotOptimization` /\n * `prompt-evolution` orchestration.\n *\n * Earns its keep where there is real per-instance signal (which the\n * dimensional + per-scenario evidence + the `LabeledScenarioStore` flywheel\n * now provide). For thin-signal surfaces it degrades to plain reflection.\n * On generation 0 (no history) it reflects on the current surface against\n * the mutation primitives alone.\n */\n\nimport { callLlm, type LlmClientOptions } from '../../llm-client'\nimport {\n  buildReflectionPrompt,\n  parseReflectionResponse,\n  type TrialTrace,\n} from '../../reflective-mutation'\nimport type { ImprovementDriver, MutableSurface, ProposeContext } from '../types'\n\nconst REFLECTION_SYSTEM =\n  'You are an expert prompt engineer. Output ONLY a JSON object of shape ' +\n  '{\"proposals\":[{\"label\":string,\"rationale\":string,\"payload\":string}]} where ' +\n  'each `payload` is the FULL improved surface text. No prose outside the JSON.'\n\nexport interface GepaDriverConstraints {\n  /** H2 section headings that MUST appear unchanged in every candidate.\n   *  When set, the driver auto-detects current H2s if this is empty AND\n   *  rejects any candidate that drops or renames a preserved heading.\n   *  Use when the surface is a structured doc (SKILL.md, runbook,\n   *  sectioned system prompt, judge rubric). */\n  preserveSections?: string[]\n  /** Maximum sentence-level edits per candidate vs the parent surface.\n   *  Rejection threshold = maxSentenceEdits × 2 (counts adds + removes).\n   *  Inspired by SkillOpt's edit-budget as a \"textual learning rate.\"\n   *  Cap prevents an LLM rewrite from overwriting useful prior rules. */\n  maxSentenceEdits?: number\n}\n\nexport interface GepaDriverOptions {\n  /** Router transport (apiKey/baseUrl). */\n  llm: LlmClientOptions\n  /** Model that performs the reflection. */\n  model: string\n  /** What is being optimized — appears in the reflection prompt for orientation. */\n  target: string\n  /** Surface-specific mutation levers offered to the model. */\n  mutationPrimitives?: string[]\n  /** Top/bottom scenarios surfaced as evidence each generation. Default 3. */\n  evidenceK?: number\n  /** Reflection sampling temperature. Default 0.7. */\n  temperature?: number\n  /** Reflection max tokens. Default 6000. */\n  maxTokens?: number\n  /** Structured-doc constraints. Candidates violating any are rejected\n   *  post-parse and dropped from the returned population. */\n  constraints?: GepaDriverConstraints\n}\n\nexport function gepaDriver(opts: GepaDriverOptions): ImprovementDriver {\n  const evidenceK = opts.evidenceK ?? 3\n  return {\n    kind: 'gepa',\n    async propose(ctx: ProposeContext): Promise<MutableSurface[]> {\n      const parent =\n        typeof ctx.currentSurface === 'string'\n          ? ctx.currentSurface\n          : JSON.stringify(ctx.currentSurface)\n      const { top, bottom, target } = buildEvidence(ctx, evidenceK, opts.target)\n\n      const userPrompt = buildReflectionPrompt({\n        target,\n        parentPayload: parent,\n        topTrials: top,\n        bottomTrials: bottom,\n        childCount: ctx.populationSize,\n        mutationPrimitives: opts.mutationPrimitives,\n      })\n\n      const result = await callLlm(\n        {\n          model: opts.model,\n          messages: [\n            { role: 'system', content: REFLECTION_SYSTEM },\n            { role: 'user', content: userPrompt },\n          ],\n          jsonMode: true,\n          temperature: opts.temperature ?? 0.7,\n          maxTokens: opts.maxTokens ?? 6000,\n        },\n        opts.llm,\n      )\n\n      const proposals = parseReflectionResponse(result.content, ctx.populationSize)\n      const out: MutableSurface[] = []\n      const constraints = opts.constraints\n      const preserveSections =\n        constraints?.preserveSections !== undefined\n          ? constraints.preserveSections.length === 0\n            ? extractH2Sections(parent)\n            : constraints.preserveSections\n          : null\n      const maxEdits = constraints?.maxSentenceEdits\n      for (const proposal of proposals) {\n        const text = typeof proposal.payload === 'string' ? proposal.payload.trim() : ''\n        if (!text || text === parent || out.includes(text)) continue\n        if (preserveSections && !validatePreservedSections(text, preserveSections)) continue\n        if (maxEdits !== undefined && countSentenceEdits(parent, text) > maxEdits * 2) continue\n        out.push(text)\n      }\n      return out\n    },\n  }\n}\n\n/** Extract H2 headings (`## Foo`) from a markdown surface. Exported for\n *  consumers building custom mutators that share the same invariant. */\nexport function extractH2Sections(text: string): string[] {\n  const out: string[] = []\n  for (const line of text.split('\\n')) {\n    const match = /^##\\s+(.+?)\\s*$/.exec(line)\n    if (match) out.push(match[1]!)\n  }\n  return out\n}\n\n/** Sentence-level edit distance — count distinct add/remove ops between\n *  two surfaces via a normalised line-by-line set diff. Treats trivial\n *  whitespace as identical. Exported for tests + consumer-side validators. */\nexport function countSentenceEdits(baseline: string, candidate: string): number {\n  const norm = (s: string) =>\n    s\n      .split(/(?<=[.!?])\\s+|\\n/g)\n      .map((p) => p.trim())\n      .filter((p) => p.length > 0)\n  const a = new Set(norm(baseline))\n  const b = new Set(norm(candidate))\n  let edits = 0\n  for (const s of a) if (!b.has(s)) edits++\n  for (const s of b) if (!a.has(s)) edits++\n  return edits\n}\n\nfunction validatePreservedSections(candidate: string, required: readonly string[]): boolean {\n  if (required.length === 0) return true\n  const have = new Set(extractH2Sections(candidate))\n  for (const section of required) {\n    if (!have.has(section)) return false\n  }\n  return true\n}\n\n/** Turn the prior generation's best candidate into reflective evidence:\n *  top/bottom scenarios by composite + a weakest-dimensions note on the target.\n *  Empty on generation 0 — the model reflects on the surface alone. */\nfunction buildEvidence(\n  ctx: ProposeContext,\n  evidenceK: number,\n  baseTarget: string,\n): { top: TrialTrace[]; bottom: TrialTrace[]; target: string } {\n  const last = ctx.history.at(-1)\n  if (!last || last.candidates.length === 0) {\n    return { top: [], bottom: [], target: baseTarget }\n  }\n  const best = [...last.candidates].sort((a, b) => b.composite - a.composite)[0]\n  if (!best) return { top: [], bottom: [], target: baseTarget }\n\n  const byScore = [...best.scenarios].sort((a, b) => b.composite - a.composite)\n  const toTrace = (s: { scenarioId: string; composite: number }): TrialTrace => ({\n    id: s.scenarioId,\n    score: s.composite,\n  })\n  const top = byScore.slice(0, evidenceK).map(toTrace)\n  const bottom = byScore.slice(-evidenceK).reverse().map(toTrace)\n\n  const weakest = Object.entries(best.dimensions)\n    .sort((a, b) => a[1] - b[1])\n    .slice(0, 3)\n    .map(([dim, value]) => `${dim} (${value.toFixed(2)})`)\n  const target =\n    weakest.length > 0 ? `${baseTarget} — weakest dimensions: ${weakest.join(', ')}` : baseTarget\n\n  return { top, bottom, target }\n}\n","/**\n * @experimental\n *\n * Compose multiple `Gate` implementations — every gate must pass for the\n * composite to ship. Closes the alignment reviewer's \"default-only\n * heldOutGate + costGate would happily promote a reward-hacked prompt\"\n * concern by making safety gates first-class composable defaults.\n */\n\nimport type { Gate, GateContext, GateDecision, GateResult, Scenario } from '../types'\n\n/** Compose gates — all must `ship` for the composite to `ship`. First\n *  non-ship verdict short-circuits the composite verdict, but ALL gates run\n *  (so the result records every gate's reason — useful for diagnostics). */\nexport function composeGate<TArtifact = unknown, TScenario extends Scenario = Scenario>(\n  ...gates: Array<Gate<TArtifact, TScenario>>\n): Gate<TArtifact, TScenario> {\n  if (gates.length === 0) {\n    throw new Error('composeGate requires at least one gate')\n  }\n  return {\n    name: `composed(${gates.map((g) => g.name).join(',')})`,\n    async decide(ctx: GateContext<TArtifact, TScenario>): Promise<GateResult> {\n      const results: Array<{ gate: Gate<TArtifact, TScenario>; res: GateResult }> = []\n      for (const gate of gates) {\n        const res = await gate.decide(ctx)\n        results.push({ gate, res })\n      }\n\n      // Substrate-wide verdict policy:\n      //   - all 'ship' → 'ship'\n      //   - any 'arch_ceiling' → 'arch_ceiling' (architectural ceiling beats other holds)\n      //   - any 'model_ceiling' → 'model_ceiling'\n      //   - any 'hold' → 'hold'\n      //   - else 'need_more_work'\n      const decisions = results.map((r) => r.res.decision)\n      const overall: GateDecision = decisions.every((d) => d === 'ship')\n        ? 'ship'\n        : decisions.includes('arch_ceiling')\n          ? 'arch_ceiling'\n          : decisions.includes('model_ceiling')\n            ? 'model_ceiling'\n            : decisions.includes('hold')\n              ? 'hold'\n              : 'need_more_work'\n\n      const contributing = results.flatMap((r) =>\n        r.res.contributingGates.length > 0\n          ? r.res.contributingGates\n          : [{ name: r.gate.name, passed: r.res.decision === 'ship', detail: r.res }],\n      )\n\n      const reasons = results.flatMap((r) =>\n        r.res.reasons.map((reason) => `[${r.gate.name}] ${reason}`),\n      )\n\n      return {\n        decision: overall,\n        reasons,\n        contributingGates: contributing,\n        delta: results[0]?.res.delta,\n      }\n    },\n  }\n}\n","/**\n * @experimental\n *\n * `defaultProductionGate` — composes the substrate's existing safety\n * primitives (red-team / reward-hacking / canary / heldout) into a single\n * Gate.decide shape. Closes the alignment + Anthropic-SI reviewers' \"safety\n * primitives are off the critical path\" blocker.\n *\n * The composition is opinionated — when consumers wire `runImprovementLoop`,\n * THIS gate is the default. Consumers can still pass a custom gate to\n * override; the recommended pattern is to compose THIS gate with whatever\n * extra domain-specific gates they need (`composeGate(defaultProductionGate(...), customGate)`).\n */\n\nimport type { CanaryReport } from '../../canary'\nimport { runCanaries } from '../../canary'\nimport type { RedTeamCase } from '../../red-team'\nimport { scoreRedTeamOutput } from '../../red-team'\nimport type { RewardHackingReport } from '../../rl/reward-hacking'\nimport { detectRewardHacking } from '../../rl/reward-hacking'\nimport type { RunRecord } from '../../run-record'\nimport type { Gate, GateContext, GateResult, Scenario } from '../types'\n\nexport interface DefaultProductionGateOptions {\n  /** Required: scenarios held out from training; substrate compares\n   *  candidate-on-holdout vs baseline-on-holdout. */\n  holdoutScenarios: Scenario[]\n  /** Minimum mean-composite improvement required to ship. Default 0.5. */\n  deltaThreshold?: number\n  /** Total $ budget for ALL cells in this campaign — including baseline + candidate.\n   *  Composite verdict refuses to ship when spend exceeded budget. */\n  budgetUsd?: number\n  /** Red-team cases to probe candidate outputs against. When omitted the\n   *  substrate uses `DEFAULT_RED_TEAM_CORPUS`. Provide a domain-specific\n   *  battery for tighter coverage. */\n  redTeamBattery?: RedTeamCase[]\n  /** Run records (oldest-first) needed for the reward-hacking detector.\n   *  Substrate populates from prior production-loop generations. */\n  recentRuns?: RunRecord[]\n  /** When true, the gate refuses to ship if the reward-hacking detector\n   *  fires at the `gaming` severity. Default true. */\n  blockOnRewardHackingGaming?: boolean\n}\n\nexport function defaultProductionGate<TArtifact, TScenario extends Scenario>(\n  options: DefaultProductionGateOptions,\n): Gate<TArtifact, TScenario> {\n  const deltaThreshold = options.deltaThreshold ?? 0.5\n  const blockOnGaming = options.blockOnRewardHackingGaming ?? true\n\n  return {\n    name: 'defaultProductionGate',\n    async decide(ctx: GateContext<TArtifact, TScenario>): Promise<GateResult> {\n      const reasons: string[] = []\n      const contributing: Array<{ name: string; passed: boolean; detail: unknown }> = []\n\n      // ── (1) heldout composite delta ─────────────────────────────────\n      // Baseline scores come from their OWN map; sharing `judgeScores` would\n      // compare the candidate against itself (delta 0).\n      const baselineComposite = meanComposite(\n        ctx.baselineArtifacts,\n        ctx.baselineJudgeScores ?? ctx.judgeScores,\n        options.holdoutScenarios,\n      )\n      const candidateComposite = meanComposite(\n        ctx.candidateArtifacts,\n        ctx.judgeScores,\n        options.holdoutScenarios,\n      )\n      const delta = candidateComposite - baselineComposite\n      const heldoutPass = delta >= deltaThreshold\n      contributing.push({\n        name: 'heldout-delta',\n        passed: heldoutPass,\n        detail: { baselineComposite, candidateComposite, delta, deltaThreshold },\n      })\n      if (!heldoutPass) {\n        reasons.push(`heldout delta ${delta.toFixed(3)} < threshold ${deltaThreshold}`)\n      }\n\n      // ── (2) budget gate ─────────────────────────────────────────────\n      const budgetPass =\n        options.budgetUsd === undefined ||\n        ctx.cost.candidate + ctx.cost.baseline <= options.budgetUsd\n      contributing.push({\n        name: 'budget',\n        passed: budgetPass,\n        detail: {\n          candidateUsd: ctx.cost.candidate,\n          baselineUsd: ctx.cost.baseline,\n          budgetUsd: options.budgetUsd,\n        },\n      })\n      if (!budgetPass) {\n        reasons.push(\n          `spend ${(ctx.cost.candidate + ctx.cost.baseline).toFixed(2)} > budget ${options.budgetUsd}`,\n        )\n      }\n\n      // ── (3) red-team probe on candidate ─────────────────────────────\n      const redTeamFindings = options.redTeamBattery\n        ? probeRedTeam(ctx.candidateArtifacts, options.redTeamBattery)\n        : { passed: true, findings: [] }\n      contributing.push({\n        name: 'red-team',\n        passed: redTeamFindings.passed,\n        detail: {\n          failures: redTeamFindings.findings.length,\n          sample: redTeamFindings.findings.slice(0, 3),\n        },\n      })\n      if (!redTeamFindings.passed) {\n        reasons.push(`red-team probe failed (${redTeamFindings.findings.length} findings)`)\n      }\n\n      // ── (4) reward-hacking detector on the run-history window ───────\n      let rewardHackingReport: RewardHackingReport | null = null\n      if (options.recentRuns && options.recentRuns.length >= 10) {\n        rewardHackingReport = detectRewardHacking({ runs: options.recentRuns })\n      }\n      // reward-hacking severity is numeric (0..1). \"gaming\" threshold per\n      // detectRewardHacking defaults = 0.6. Block when ANY finding is at\n      // gaming threshold OR the report verdict is 'gaming'.\n      const gamingThreshold = 0.6\n      const gamingFindings = (rewardHackingReport?.findings ?? []).filter(\n        (f) => f.severity >= gamingThreshold,\n      )\n      const rewardHackingPass =\n        !rewardHackingReport ||\n        !blockOnGaming ||\n        (gamingFindings.length === 0 && rewardHackingReport.verdict !== 'gaming')\n      contributing.push({\n        name: 'reward-hacking',\n        passed: rewardHackingPass,\n        detail: { report: rewardHackingReport, gamingFindingCount: gamingFindings.length },\n      })\n      if (!rewardHackingPass) {\n        reasons.push(\n          `reward-hacking detector flagged ${gamingFindings.length} gaming-severity findings (verdict=${rewardHackingReport!.verdict})`,\n        )\n      }\n\n      // ── (5) canary check on runs ────────────────────────────────────\n      let canaryReport: CanaryReport | null = null\n      if (options.recentRuns && options.recentRuns.length >= 10) {\n        canaryReport = runCanaries(options.recentRuns, {})\n      }\n      // CanarySeverity is 'info' | 'warn' | 'error' — block on 'error'.\n      const errorAlerts = (canaryReport?.alerts ?? []).filter((a) => a.severity === 'error')\n      const canaryPass = errorAlerts.length === 0\n      contributing.push({\n        name: 'canary',\n        passed: canaryPass,\n        detail: { totalAlerts: canaryReport?.alerts.length ?? 0, errorAlerts: errorAlerts.length },\n      })\n      if (!canaryPass) {\n        reasons.push(`canary error alerts: ${errorAlerts.length}`)\n      }\n\n      // ── Verdict ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────\n      const allPassed = contributing.every((c) => c.passed)\n      const decision = allPassed ? 'ship' : 'hold'\n\n      return {\n        decision,\n        reasons: reasons.length > 0 ? reasons : ['all gates passed'],\n        contributingGates: contributing,\n        delta,\n      }\n    },\n  }\n}\n\nfunction meanComposite<TArtifact, TScenario extends Scenario>(\n  artifacts: Map<string, TArtifact> | undefined,\n  judgeScoresByCell: Map<string, Record<string, { composite: number }>>,\n  scenarios: TScenario[],\n): number {\n  if (!artifacts || artifacts.size === 0) return 0\n  const scenarioIds = new Set(scenarios.map((s) => s.id))\n  const composites: number[] = []\n  for (const [cellId, scores] of judgeScoresByCell) {\n    const scenarioId = cellId.split(':')[0] ?? ''\n    if (!scenarioIds.has(scenarioId)) continue\n    const cellComposites = Object.values(scores).map((s) => s.composite)\n    if (cellComposites.length === 0) continue\n    composites.push(cellComposites.reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0) / cellComposites.length)\n  }\n  if (composites.length === 0) return 0\n  return composites.reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0) / composites.length\n}\n\nfunction probeRedTeam<TArtifact>(\n  artifacts: Map<string, TArtifact>,\n  battery: RedTeamCase[],\n): { passed: boolean; findings: Array<{ scenarioId: string; reason: string }> } {\n  const findings: Array<{ scenarioId: string; reason: string }> = []\n  for (const [_cellId, artifact] of artifacts) {\n    const text = extractText(artifact)\n    if (text === undefined) continue\n    for (const rtCase of battery) {\n      const finding = scoreRedTeamOutput(text, [], rtCase)\n      if (!finding.passed) {\n        findings.push({ scenarioId: rtCase.id, reason: finding.reason ?? 'red-team probe failed' })\n      }\n    }\n  }\n  return { passed: findings.length === 0, findings }\n}\n\nfunction extractText(artifact: unknown): string | undefined {\n  if (typeof artifact === 'string') return artifact\n  if (artifact && typeof artifact === 'object') {\n    const rec = artifact as Record<string, unknown>\n    if (typeof rec.text === 'string') return rec.text\n    if (typeof rec.output === 'string') return rec.output\n    if (typeof rec.content === 'string') return rec.content\n  }\n  return undefined\n}\n","/**\n * @experimental\n *\n * Thin Gate adapter — exposes delta-threshold-on-holdout as a composable\n * `Gate`. Use when you want held-out as one of N composed gates instead of\n * the full `defaultProductionGate` stack.\n */\n\nimport type { Gate, GateContext, GateResult, Scenario } from '../types'\n\nexport interface HeldOutGateOptions<TScenario extends Scenario = Scenario> {\n  scenarios: TScenario[]\n  deltaThreshold?: number\n}\n\nexport function heldOutGate<TArtifact, TScenario extends Scenario>(\n  options: HeldOutGateOptions<TScenario>,\n): Gate<TArtifact, TScenario> {\n  const deltaThreshold = options.deltaThreshold ?? 0.5\n  return {\n    name: 'heldOutGate',\n    async decide(ctx: GateContext<TArtifact, TScenario>): Promise<GateResult> {\n      const scenarioIds = new Set(options.scenarios.map((s) => s.id))\n      // Baseline scores live in their OWN map — falling back to `judgeScores`\n      // would compare the candidate against itself (delta 0).\n      const baseline = meanForScenarios(ctx.baselineJudgeScores ?? ctx.judgeScores, scenarioIds)\n      const candidate = meanForScenarios(ctx.judgeScores, scenarioIds)\n      const delta = candidate - baseline\n      const passed = delta >= deltaThreshold\n      return {\n        decision: passed ? 'ship' : 'hold',\n        reasons: passed\n          ? [`held-out delta ${delta.toFixed(3)} ≥ ${deltaThreshold}`]\n          : [`held-out delta ${delta.toFixed(3)} < ${deltaThreshold}`],\n        contributingGates: [\n          { name: 'heldOutGate', passed, detail: { baseline, candidate, delta, deltaThreshold } },\n        ],\n        delta,\n      }\n    },\n  }\n}\n\nfunction meanForScenarios(\n  judgeScoresByCell: Map<string, Record<string, { composite: number }>>,\n  scenarioIds: Set<string>,\n): number {\n  const composites: number[] = []\n  for (const [cellId, scores] of judgeScoresByCell) {\n    const scenarioId = cellId.split(':')[0] ?? ''\n    if (!scenarioIds.has(scenarioId)) continue\n    const vals = Object.values(scores).map((s) => s.composite)\n    if (vals.length > 0) composites.push(vals.reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0) / vals.length)\n  }\n  return composites.length === 0 ? 0 : composites.reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0) / composites.length\n}\n","/**\n * @experimental\n *\n * `runEval` — the simplest preset over `runCampaign`. No optimizer, no\n * gate, no auto-PR. Just: run scenarios through dispatch, score with\n * judges, return CampaignResult.\n *\n * The 80% case for consumers who want a scorecard, not an improvement loop.\n */\n\nimport { type RunCampaignOptions, runCampaign } from '../run-campaign'\nimport type { CampaignResult, Scenario } from '../types'\n\nexport interface RunEvalOptions<TScenario extends Scenario, TArtifact>\n  extends Omit<RunCampaignOptions<TScenario, TArtifact>, 'runDir'> {\n  runDir: string\n}\n\nexport async function runEval<TScenario extends Scenario, TArtifact>(\n  opts: RunEvalOptions<TScenario, TArtifact>,\n): Promise<CampaignResult<TArtifact, TScenario>> {\n  return runCampaign(opts)\n}\n","/**\n * @experimental\n *\n * `runOptimization` — the improvement loop body. Runs N generations: the\n * `ImprovementDriver` proposes K candidate surfaces per generation, each\n * candidate runs a campaign (the measurement), top-scoring promote to the\n * next generation. Driver-agnostic — the same loop runs an evolutionary\n * population mutator (`evolutionaryDriver`) or agent-runtime's\n * `improvementDriver` (reflective / agentic generators); they differ only in\n * how `propose()` picks candidates.\n *\n * This is `runLoop`'s shape (plan → measure → decide) specialized to surface\n * improvement: `driver.propose` = plan, `runCampaign` = the measurement (which\n * runs the worker behind `dispatch`), the mean-composite ranking = the\n * validator, `driver.decide` = the stop check.\n *\n * The gated-promotion shell (`runImprovementLoop`) wraps this with a holdout\n * re-score + release gate + optional PR.\n */\n\nimport { createHash } from 'node:crypto'\nimport { type RunCampaignOptions, runCampaign } from '../run-campaign'\nimport type {\n  CampaignResult,\n  GenerationRecord,\n  ImprovementDriver,\n  MutableSurface,\n  Scenario,\n} from '../types'\n\nexport interface RunOptimizationOptions<TScenario extends Scenario, TArtifact>\n  extends Omit<RunCampaignOptions<TScenario, TArtifact>, 'dispatch'> {\n  /** Initial mutable surface (typically system prompt or addendum). */\n  baselineSurface: MutableSurface\n  /** Dispatcher that takes the CURRENT surface + scenario → artifact. */\n  dispatchWithSurface: (\n    surface: MutableSurface,\n    scenario: TScenario,\n    ctx: Parameters<RunCampaignOptions<TScenario, TArtifact>['dispatch']>[1],\n  ) => Promise<TArtifact>\n  /** The improvement strategy. Wrap a population `Mutator` via\n   *  `evolutionaryDriver({ mutator })`, or pass agent-runtime's\n   *  `improvementDriver` (reflective / agentic generators). */\n  driver: ImprovementDriver\n  populationSize: number\n  maxGenerations: number\n  /** How many top-scoring candidates carry to the next generation. Default 2. */\n  promoteTopK?: number\n  /** DEPTH knob forwarded to the driver's `propose()` — max iterations the\n   *  agentic generator may take per candidate. */\n  maxImprovementShots?: number\n  /** Phase-2 research report forwarded to `propose()` (analyst findings +\n   *  diff). Opaque here; the driver types it. */\n  report?: unknown\n}\n\nexport interface RunOptimizationResult<TArtifact, TScenario extends Scenario> {\n  generations: Array<{\n    record: GenerationRecord\n    surfaces: Array<{\n      surfaceHash: string\n      surface: MutableSurface\n      campaign: CampaignResult<TArtifact, TScenario>\n    }>\n  }>\n  winnerSurface: MutableSurface\n  winnerSurfaceHash: string\n  baselineCampaign: CampaignResult<TArtifact, TScenario>\n}\n\nexport async function runOptimization<TScenario extends Scenario, TArtifact>(\n  opts: RunOptimizationOptions<TScenario, TArtifact>,\n): Promise<RunOptimizationResult<TArtifact, TScenario>> {\n  const promoteTopK = opts.promoteTopK ?? 2\n\n  // Baseline run\n  const baselineCampaign = await runCampaign<TScenario, TArtifact>({\n    ...opts,\n    dispatch: (scenario, ctx) => opts.dispatchWithSurface(opts.baselineSurface, scenario, ctx),\n    runDir: `${opts.runDir}/baseline`,\n  })\n\n  const generations: RunOptimizationResult<TArtifact, TScenario>['generations'] = []\n  const history: GenerationRecord[] = []\n  let currentSurfaces: MutableSurface[] = [opts.baselineSurface]\n  let winnerSurface = opts.baselineSurface\n  let winnerSurfaceHash = surfaceHash(opts.baselineSurface)\n  let winnerComposite = meanComposite(baselineCampaign)\n\n  for (let gen = 0; gen < opts.maxGenerations; gen++) {\n    // Decide: the driver may stop early based on accumulated history.\n    if (opts.driver.decide?.({ history }).stop) break\n\n    // Plan: the driver proposes N candidates from the current best surface,\n    // the accumulated generation history, and any external findings.\n    const candidates = await opts.driver.propose({\n      currentSurface: currentSurfaces[0] ?? opts.baselineSurface,\n      history,\n      findings: [],\n      populationSize: opts.populationSize,\n      generation: gen,\n      signal: new AbortController().signal,\n      report: opts.report,\n      dataset: opts.labeledStore && opts.labeledStore !== 'off' ? opts.labeledStore : undefined,\n      maxImprovementShots: opts.maxImprovementShots,\n    })\n\n    // Run each candidate as its own campaign.\n    const surfaceResults: Array<{\n      surfaceHash: string\n      surface: MutableSurface\n      campaign: CampaignResult<TArtifact, TScenario>\n      composite: number\n    }> = []\n    for (let i = 0; i < candidates.length; i++) {\n      const surface = candidates[i] as MutableSurface\n      const hash = surfaceHash(surface)\n      const campaign = await runCampaign<TScenario, TArtifact>({\n        ...opts,\n        dispatch: (scenario, ctx) => opts.dispatchWithSurface(surface, scenario, ctx),\n        runDir: `${opts.runDir}/gen-${gen}/candidate-${i}`,\n      })\n      const composite = meanComposite(campaign)\n      surfaceResults.push({ surfaceHash: hash, surface, campaign, composite })\n    }\n\n    // Rank, promote top-K.\n    surfaceResults.sort((a, b) => b.composite - a.composite)\n    const promoted = surfaceResults.slice(0, promoteTopK)\n    currentSurfaces = promoted.map((p) => p.surface)\n    const top = surfaceResults[0]\n    if (top && top.composite > winnerComposite) {\n      winnerSurface = top.surface\n      winnerSurfaceHash = top.surfaceHash\n      winnerComposite = top.composite\n    }\n\n    const record: GenerationRecord = {\n      generationIndex: gen,\n      candidates: surfaceResults.map((s) => {\n        const breakdown = candidateBreakdown(s.campaign)\n        return {\n          surfaceHash: s.surfaceHash,\n          composite: s.composite,\n          ci95: [s.composite, s.composite] as [number, number],\n          dimensions: breakdown.dimensions,\n          scenarios: breakdown.scenarios,\n        }\n      }),\n      promoted: promoted.map((p) => p.surfaceHash),\n    }\n    history.push(record)\n    generations.push({\n      record,\n      surfaces: surfaceResults.map((s) => ({\n        surfaceHash: s.surfaceHash,\n        surface: s.surface,\n        campaign: s.campaign,\n      })),\n    })\n  }\n\n  return {\n    generations,\n    winnerSurface,\n    winnerSurfaceHash,\n    baselineCampaign,\n  }\n}\n\nexport function surfaceHash(surface: MutableSurface): string {\n  // Prompt/tool surfaces (string) hash by content; code surfaces hash by the\n  // worktree + base ref pair (the content lives in git, not in the string).\n  const material =\n    typeof surface === 'string'\n      ? surface\n      : JSON.stringify({\n          kind: surface.kind,\n          worktreeRef: surface.worktreeRef,\n          baseRef: surface.baseRef ?? null,\n        })\n  return createHash('sha256').update(material).digest('hex').slice(0, 16)\n}\n\nfunction meanComposite<TArtifact, TScenario extends Scenario>(\n  campaign: CampaignResult<TArtifact, TScenario>,\n): number {\n  const composites: number[] = []\n  for (const cell of campaign.cells) {\n    const cellComposites = Object.values(cell.judgeScores).map((s) => s.composite)\n    if (cellComposites.length > 0) {\n      composites.push(cellComposites.reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0) / cellComposites.length)\n    }\n  }\n  return composites.length === 0 ? 0 : composites.reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0) / composites.length\n}\n\n/** Per-candidate evidence a reflective driver grounds its next proposal on:\n *  mean score per judge dimension + per-scenario composite. */\nfunction candidateBreakdown<TArtifact, TScenario extends Scenario>(\n  campaign: CampaignResult<TArtifact, TScenario>,\n): {\n  dimensions: Record<string, number>\n  scenarios: Array<{ scenarioId: string; composite: number }>\n} {\n  const dimSums: Record<string, number> = {}\n  const dimCounts: Record<string, number> = {}\n  const byScenario = new Map<string, number[]>()\n  for (const cell of campaign.cells) {\n    const judgeScores = Object.values(cell.judgeScores)\n    if (judgeScores.length === 0) continue\n    const cellComposite = judgeScores.reduce((a, s) => a + s.composite, 0) / judgeScores.length\n    const arr = byScenario.get(cell.scenarioId) ?? []\n    arr.push(cellComposite)\n    byScenario.set(cell.scenarioId, arr)\n    for (const score of judgeScores) {\n      for (const [key, value] of Object.entries(score.dimensions)) {\n        dimSums[key] = (dimSums[key] ?? 0) + value\n        dimCounts[key] = (dimCounts[key] ?? 0) + 1\n      }\n    }\n  }\n  const dimensions: Record<string, number> = {}\n  for (const key of Object.keys(dimSums)) {\n    const count = dimCounts[key] ?? 0\n    dimensions[key] = count > 0 ? (dimSums[key] ?? 0) / count : 0\n  }\n  const scenarios = [...byScenario.entries()].map(([scenarioId, comps]) => ({\n    scenarioId,\n    composite: comps.reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0) / comps.length,\n  }))\n  return { dimensions, scenarios }\n}\n","/**\n * @experimental\n *\n * `runImprovementLoop` — the gated-promotion shell around the improvement\n * loop body (`runOptimization`). Drives candidate surfaces via the\n * `ImprovementDriver`, re-scores the winner against the baseline on a\n * holdout set, runs the release gate, and optionally opens a PR.\n *\n * Role vocabulary (see docs/design/loop-taxonomy.md):\n *   - DRIVER     = the `ImprovementDriver` (evolutionary GEPA mutator OR\n *                  reflective analyst). Proposes candidate SURFACES — the\n *                  worker's system prompt / tool config — NOT conversation\n *                  turns.\n *   - MEASUREMENT= `runCampaign`. Scores one surface by running the worker\n *                  (via `dispatch`) over scenarios and judging the output.\n *   - WORKER     = the agent harness in the sandbox, invoked behind the\n *                  topology-opaque `dispatch` seam — never referenced here.\n *\n * Distinct from `runLoop` in `@tangle-network/agent-runtime`, which is the\n * INNER conversation loop (driver↔workers in a sandbox). `runImprovementLoop`\n * is the OUTER loop: it improves the surface that those workers run.\n *\n * Hard-refuses unsafe configurations:\n *   - `tracing: 'off'` when a driver is wired (improvement is unattributable)\n *   - `autoOnPromote: 'config'` — DEFERRED to Pass B; v0.40 only ships\n *     `'pr'` and `'none'`.\n */\n\nimport { openAutoPr } from '../auto-pr'\nimport type { CampaignResult, Gate, MutableSurface, Scenario } from '../types'\nimport type { RunOptimizationOptions, RunOptimizationResult } from './run-optimization'\nimport { runOptimization } from './run-optimization'\n\nexport interface RunImprovementLoopOptions<TScenario extends Scenario, TArtifact>\n  extends RunOptimizationOptions<TScenario, TArtifact> {\n  /** Holdout scenarios kept OUT of the training optimization pool — used\n   *  ONLY to score baseline vs winner for the gate. */\n  holdoutScenarios: TScenario[]\n  /** Promotion gate. Substrate strongly recommends `defaultProductionGate`\n   *  for production wiring (composes red-team / reward-hacking / canary /\n   *  heldout). */\n  gate: Gate<TArtifact, TScenario>\n  /** What to do when the gate ships:\n   *   - `'pr'`: open a PR via `openAutoPr`\n   *   - `'none'`: just report — caller decides what to do with the winner\n   *  v0.40 does NOT support `'config'` (live-runtime self-mutation) —\n   *  deferred to Pass B behind safety stack. */\n  autoOnPromote: 'pr' | 'none'\n  /** GH owner / repo for the auto-PR. Required when autoOnPromote === 'pr'. */\n  ghOwner?: string\n  ghRepo?: string\n  /** Optional render override — substrate writes a diff-shaped surface; pass\n   *  a function to format the promoted surface differently. */\n  renderPromotedDiff?: (winnerSurface: MutableSurface, baselineSurface: MutableSurface) => string\n}\n\nexport interface RunImprovementLoopResult<TArtifact, TScenario extends Scenario>\n  extends RunOptimizationResult<TArtifact, TScenario> {\n  baselineOnHoldout: CampaignResult<TArtifact, TScenario>\n  winnerOnHoldout: CampaignResult<TArtifact, TScenario>\n  gateResult: Awaited<ReturnType<Gate<TArtifact, TScenario>['decide']>>\n  prResult?: ReturnType<typeof openAutoPr>\n}\n\nexport async function runImprovementLoop<TScenario extends Scenario, TArtifact>(\n  opts: RunImprovementLoopOptions<TScenario, TArtifact>,\n): Promise<RunImprovementLoopResult<TArtifact, TScenario>> {\n  // ── Safety pre-flight ─────────────────────────────────────────────\n  // biome-ignore lint/suspicious/noExplicitAny: Pass A reserved field for Pass B Shape B\n  if ((opts as any).autoOnPromote === 'config') {\n    throw new Error(\n      \"runImprovementLoop: autoOnPromote='config' is deferred to Pass B (requires shadow deploy + rollback + ensemble judges). Use 'pr' or 'none' in v0.40.\",\n    )\n  }\n  // Refuse tracing=off whenever a driver is wired. An improvement loop\n  // without traces is unattributable — its candidate surfaces cannot be\n  // cited back to the spans that motivated them, and the dataset flywheel\n  // (LabeledScenarioStore) that GEPA optimizes against goes unfed.\n  if (opts.tracing === 'off' && opts.driver) {\n    throw new Error(\n      \"runImprovementLoop: tracing='off' is forbidden when a driver is wired. The improvement loop without traces is unattributable; candidate surfaces cannot be cited back to spans and the optimization dataset goes unfed.\",\n    )\n  }\n  if (opts.autoOnPromote === 'pr' && (!opts.ghOwner || !opts.ghRepo)) {\n    throw new Error(\"runImprovementLoop: autoOnPromote='pr' requires ghOwner + ghRepo.\")\n  }\n\n  // ── (1) optimization loop produces a winner ────────────────────────\n  const optimization = await runOptimization(opts)\n\n  // ── (2) baseline + winner re-scored on the holdout set ─────────────\n  const { runCampaign } = await import('../run-campaign')\n\n  const baselineOnHoldout = await runCampaign<TScenario, TArtifact>({\n    ...opts,\n    scenarios: opts.holdoutScenarios,\n    dispatch: (scenario, ctx) => opts.dispatchWithSurface(opts.baselineSurface, scenario, ctx),\n    runDir: `${opts.runDir}/holdout-baseline`,\n  })\n\n  const winnerOnHoldout = await runCampaign<TScenario, TArtifact>({\n    ...opts,\n    scenarios: opts.holdoutScenarios,\n    dispatch: (scenario, ctx) =>\n      opts.dispatchWithSurface(optimization.winnerSurface, scenario, ctx),\n    runDir: `${opts.runDir}/holdout-winner`,\n  })\n\n  // ── (3) gate verdict ───────────────────────────────────────────────\n  // Candidate + baseline share cellIds (same holdout scenarios), so their\n  // judge scores MUST stay in separate maps — merging them collapses the\n  // holdout delta to zero and the gate can never ship a real improvement.\n  type ScoreMap = Map<\n    string,\n    Record<string, { composite: number; dimensions: Record<string, number>; notes: string }>\n  >\n  const candidateArtifacts = new Map<string, TArtifact>()\n  const baselineArtifacts = new Map<string, TArtifact>()\n  const judgeScores: ScoreMap = new Map()\n  const baselineJudgeScores: ScoreMap = new Map()\n  for (const cell of winnerOnHoldout.cells) {\n    candidateArtifacts.set(cell.cellId, cell.artifact)\n    judgeScores.set(cell.cellId, cell.judgeScores)\n  }\n  for (const cell of baselineOnHoldout.cells) {\n    baselineArtifacts.set(cell.cellId, cell.artifact)\n    baselineJudgeScores.set(cell.cellId, cell.judgeScores)\n  }\n\n  const gateResult = await opts.gate.decide({\n    candidateArtifacts,\n    baselineArtifacts,\n    judgeScores,\n    baselineJudgeScores,\n    scenarios: opts.holdoutScenarios,\n    cost: {\n      candidate: winnerOnHoldout.aggregates.totalCostUsd,\n      baseline: baselineOnHoldout.aggregates.totalCostUsd,\n    },\n    signal: new AbortController().signal,\n  })\n\n  // ── (4) auto-PR when gate ships ────────────────────────────────────\n  let prResult: ReturnType<typeof openAutoPr> | undefined\n  if (opts.autoOnPromote === 'pr' && gateResult.decision === 'ship') {\n    const render = opts.renderPromotedDiff ?? defaultRenderDiff\n    const promotedDiff = render(optimization.winnerSurface, opts.baselineSurface)\n    prResult = openAutoPr({\n      result: winnerOnHoldout,\n      gate: gateResult,\n      promotedDiff,\n      ghOwner: opts.ghOwner!,\n      ghRepo: opts.ghRepo!,\n    })\n  }\n\n  return {\n    ...optimization,\n    baselineOnHoldout,\n    winnerOnHoldout,\n    gateResult,\n    prResult,\n  }\n}\n\nfunction defaultRenderDiff(winnerSurface: MutableSurface, baselineSurface: MutableSurface): string {\n  // Code surfaces aren't text-diffable here — the diff lives in git. Render\n  // the worktree/base refs + summary so the PR body points at the change.\n  if (typeof winnerSurface !== 'string' || typeof baselineSurface !== 'string') {\n    const fmt = (s: MutableSurface): string =>\n      typeof s === 'string'\n        ? '(prompt surface)'\n        : `worktree=${s.worktreeRef}${s.baseRef ? ` base=${s.baseRef}` : ''}${s.summary ? `\\n${s.summary}` : ''}`\n    return `--- baseline\\n${fmt(baselineSurface)}\\n+++ winner\\n${fmt(winnerSurface)}`\n  }\n  const lines: string[] = []\n  lines.push('--- baseline')\n  lines.push('+++ winner')\n  for (const l of baselineSurface.split('\\n')) lines.push(`- ${l}`)\n  for (const l of winnerSurface.split('\\n')) lines.push(`+ ${l}`)\n  return 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package/dist/contract/index.d.ts

@@ -1,10 +1,10 @@
 import { S as Scenario, M as MutableSurface, b as DispatchContext, a as JudgeConfig, I as ImprovementDriver, G as Gate } from '../types-Dbj5gu8n.js';
 export { f as CampaignAggregates, g as CampaignArtifactWriter, h as CampaignCellResult, i as CampaignCostMeter, j as CampaignResult, k as CampaignTraceWriter, C as CodeSurface, D as Dispatch, l as GateContext, m as GateDecision, n as GateResult, o as GenerationCandidate, p as GenerationRecord, r as JudgeDimension, J as JudgeScore, t as Mutator, O as OptimizerConfig, v as SessionScript } from '../types-Dbj5gu8n.js';
-import { C as CampaignStorage, d as RunImprovementLoopResult } from '../run-improvement-loop-BPMjNKMJ.js';
-export { D as DefaultProductionGateOptions, E as EvolutionaryDriverOptions, G as GepaDriverOptions, H as HeldOutGateOptions, R as RunCampaignOptions, b as RunEvalOptions, c as RunImprovementLoopOptions, g as composeGate, h as defaultProductionGate, i as evolutionaryDriver, j as fsCampaignStorage, k as gepaDriver, l as heldOutGate, m as inMemoryCampaignStorage, r as runCampaign, n as runEval, p as runImprovementLoop } from '../run-improvement-loop-BPMjNKMJ.js';
+import { C as CampaignStorage, e as RunImprovementLoopResult } from '../run-improvement-loop-Cc7oZlRP.js';
+export { D as DefaultProductionGateOptions, E as EvolutionaryDriverOptions, a as GepaDriverOptions, H as HeldOutGateOptions, R as RunCampaignOptions, c as RunEvalOptions, d as RunImprovementLoopOptions, h as composeGate, j as defaultProductionGate, k as evolutionaryDriver, m as fsCampaignStorage, n as gepaDriver, o as heldOutGate, p as inMemoryCampaignStorage, r as runCampaign, s as runEval, t as runImprovementLoop } from '../run-improvement-loop-Cc7oZlRP.js';
 export { D as DeploymentOutcome, F as FileSystemOutcomeStore, b as FileSystemOutcomeStoreOptions, I as InMemoryOutcomeStore, O as OutcomeStore } from '../outcome-store-D6KWmYvj.js';
-import { a as HostedTenant, I as InsightReport, T as TraceSpanEvent } from '../index-DQHtWQ57.js';
-export { F as FailureClusterInsight, b as InterRaterInsight, J as JudgeInsight, L as LiftInsight, O as OutcomeCorrelationInsight, R as Recommendation, c as ReleaseSummary, S as ScalarDistribution } from '../index-DQHtWQ57.js';
+import { a as HostedTenant, I as InsightReport, T as TraceSpanEvent } from '../index-C7RhhEME.js';
+export { F as FailureClusterInsight, b as InterRaterInsight, J as JudgeInsight, L as LiftInsight, O as OutcomeCorrelationInsight, R as Recommendation, c as ReleaseSummary, S as ScalarDistribution } from '../index-C7RhhEME.js';
 import { A as AnalystRegistry } from '../registry-8KAs18kY.js';
 import { a as DatasetScenario } from '../dataset-BlwAtYYf.js';
 import { R as RunRecord, a as RunSplitTag } from '../run-record-BGY6bHRh.js';
@@ -297,6 +297,18 @@ interface AnalyzeRunsOptions {
      *  about. Used by the recommendations engine to call ship vs hold.
      *  Default 0.02. */
     decisionThreshold?: number;
+    /** Optional prior-period runs. When set, the report includes
+     *  `priorPeriodComparison` with per-metric Welch-CI deltas and
+     *  recommendations fire on statistically significant regressions.
+     *  The two windows do NOT have to share scenarios — the comparison
+     *  is two-sample unpaired (the substrate's `lift` field uses paired
+     *  bootstrap on shared (experimentId, seed) tuples; this is the
+     *  shape for "this week vs last week" rather than "candidate vs
+     *  baseline within a campaign"). */
+    baselineRuns?: RunRecord[];
+    /** Human-readable label for the baseline window, e.g. "vs prior 7
+     *  days", "vs v3.1 release". Surfaces in recommendations + UI. */
+    baselineLabel?: string;
 }
 declare function analyzeRuns(opts: AnalyzeRunsOptions): Promise<InsightReport>;
 

package/dist/contract/index.js

@@ -6,7 +6,7 @@ import {
   heldOutGate,
   runEval,
   runImprovementLoop
-} from "../chunk-XAP6DJZE.js";
+} from "../chunk-YXD7GWJI.js";
 import {
   fsCampaignStorage,
   inMemoryCampaignStorage,
@@ -78,6 +78,7 @@ async function analyzeRuns(opts) {
   const contamination = opts.canaryScenarios ? computeContamination(runs, opts.canaryScenarios) : void 0;
   const outcomeCorrelation = opts.outcomeSignal ? computeOutcomeCorrelation(runs, opts.outcomeSignal, split) : void 0;
   const release = buildReleaseScorecard(composite, lift, contamination);
+  const priorPeriodComparison = opts.baselineRuns ? computePriorPeriodComparison(runs, opts.baselineRuns, split, opts.baselineLabel) : void 0;
   const recommendations = buildRecommendations({
     composite,
     judges,
@@ -86,6 +87,7 @@ async function analyzeRuns(opts) {
     failureClusters,
     contamination,
     outcomeCorrelation,
+    priorPeriodComparison,
     threshold
   });
   return {
@@ -100,9 +102,127 @@ async function analyzeRuns(opts) {
     contamination,
     outcomeCorrelation,
     release,
+    ...priorPeriodComparison ? { priorPeriodComparison } : {},
     recommendations
   };
 }
+function computePriorPeriodComparison(current, baseline, split, windowLabel) {
+  if (current.length === 0 || baseline.length === 0) return void 0;
+  const metrics = {};
+  const directions = {};
+  const compositeCurrent = current.map((r) => compositeOf(r, split)).filter(Number.isFinite);
+  const compositeBaseline = baseline.map((r) => compositeOf(r, split)).filter(Number.isFinite);
+  if (compositeCurrent.length > 0 && compositeBaseline.length > 0) {
+    metrics.composite = welchCompare(compositeBaseline, compositeCurrent);
+    directions.composite = "higher-is-better";
+  }
+  const costCurrent = current.map((r) => r.costUsd).filter(Number.isFinite);
+  const costBaseline = baseline.map((r) => r.costUsd).filter(Number.isFinite);
+  if (costCurrent.length > 0 && costBaseline.length > 0) {
+    metrics.cost = welchCompare(costBaseline, costCurrent);
+    directions.cost = "lower-is-better";
+  }
+  const durCurrent = current.map((r) => r.wallMs).filter(Number.isFinite);
+  const durBaseline = baseline.map((r) => r.wallMs).filter(Number.isFinite);
+  if (durCurrent.length > 0 && durBaseline.length > 0) {
+    metrics.duration = welchCompare(durBaseline, durCurrent);
+    directions.duration = "lower-is-better";
+  }
+  const tokCurrent = current.map((r) => (r.tokenUsage.input ?? 0) + (r.tokenUsage.output ?? 0)).filter(Number.isFinite);
+  const tokBaseline = baseline.map((r) => (r.tokenUsage.input ?? 0) + (r.tokenUsage.output ?? 0)).filter(Number.isFinite);
+  if (tokCurrent.length > 0 && tokBaseline.length > 0) {
+    metrics.tokenUsage = welchCompare(tokBaseline, tokCurrent);
+    directions.tokenUsage = "lower-is-better";
+  }
+  const dimsCurrent = collectPerDimension(current);
+  const dimsBaseline = collectPerDimension(baseline);
+  for (const dim of Object.keys(dimsCurrent)) {
+    const b = dimsBaseline[dim];
+    const c = dimsCurrent[dim];
+    if (!b || b.length === 0 || !c || c.length === 0) continue;
+    metrics[`dim.${dim}`] = welchCompare(b, c);
+    directions[`dim.${dim}`] = "higher-is-better";
+  }
+  const regressedMetrics = [];
+  const improvedMetrics = [];
+  for (const [name, delta] of Object.entries(metrics)) {
+    if (!delta.significant) continue;
+    const dir = directions[name] ?? "higher-is-better";
+    const better = dir === "higher-is-better" ? delta.delta > 0 : delta.delta < 0;
+    if (better) improvedMetrics.push(name);
+    else regressedMetrics.push(name);
+  }
+  return {
+    baselineN: baseline.length,
+    currentN: current.length,
+    ...windowLabel ? { windowLabel } : {},
+    metrics,
+    regressedMetrics,
+    improvedMetrics
+  };
+}
+function collectPerDimension(runs) {
+  const out = {};
+  for (const r of runs) {
+    const perDim = r.outcome.judgeScores?.perDimMean;
+    if (!perDim) continue;
+    for (const [dim, value] of Object.entries(perDim)) {
+      if (!Number.isFinite(value)) continue;
+      if (!out[dim]) out[dim] = [];
+      out[dim].push(value);
+    }
+  }
+  return out;
+}
+function welchCompare(baseline, current) {
+  const baselineMean = mean(baseline);
+  const currentMean = mean(current);
+  const baselineVar = sampleVariance(baseline, baselineMean);
+  const currentVar = sampleVariance(current, currentMean);
+  const baselineN = baseline.length;
+  const currentN = current.length;
+  const delta = currentMean - baselineMean;
+  const se = Math.sqrt(baselineVar / baselineN + currentVar / currentN);
+  const halfWidth = 1.96 * (se > 0 ? se : 0);
+  const ci95 = [delta - halfWidth, delta + halfWidth];
+  const t = se > 0 ? delta / se : 0;
+  const pValue = se > 0 ? 2 * (1 - standardNormalCdf(Math.abs(t))) : 1;
+  const pooledStddev = Math.sqrt(
+    ((baselineN - 1) * baselineVar + (currentN - 1) * currentVar) / Math.max(1, baselineN + currentN - 2)
+  );
+  const cohensD2 = pooledStddev > 0 ? delta / pooledStddev : 0;
+  const significant = pValue < 0.05 && Math.abs(cohensD2) >= 0.2;
+  return {
+    current: currentMean,
+    baseline: baselineMean,
+    delta,
+    ci95,
+    pValue,
+    cohensD: cohensD2,
+    baselineN,
+    currentN,
+    significant
+  };
+}
+function sampleVariance(xs, xsMean) {
+  if (xs.length < 2) return 0;
+  let s = 0;
+  for (const x of xs) s += (x - xsMean) ** 2;
+  return s / (xs.length - 1);
+}
+function standardNormalCdf(z) {
+  const a1 = 0.254829592;
+  const a2 = -0.284496736;
+  const a3 = 1.421413741;
+  const a4 = -1.453152027;
+  const a5 = 1.061405429;
+  const p = 0.3275911;
+  const sign = z < 0 ? -1 : 1;
+  const x = Math.abs(z) / Math.SQRT2;
+  const t = 1 / (1 + p * x);
+  const y = 1 - ((((a5 * t + a4) * t + a3) * t + a2) * t + a1) * t * Math.exp(-x * x);
+  return 0.5 * (1 + sign * y);
+}
 function resolveSplit(runs, pref) {
   if (pref !== "auto") return pref;
   const hasHoldout = runs.some((r) => Number.isFinite(r.outcome.holdoutScore));
@@ -492,6 +612,32 @@ function buildReleaseScorecard(composite, lift, contamination) {
 }
 function buildRecommendations(ctx) {
   const out = [];
+  if (ctx.priorPeriodComparison) {
+    const ppc = ctx.priorPeriodComparison;
+    const label = ppc.windowLabel ?? "baseline period";
+    for (const name of ppc.regressedMetrics) {
+      const d = ppc.metrics[name];
+      if (!d) continue;
+      out.push({
+        priority: "critical",
+        kind: "investigate",
+        title: `${name} regressed from ${d.baseline.toFixed(3)} \u2192 ${d.current.toFixed(3)} vs ${label}`,
+        detail: `Welch CI95 = [${d.ci95[0].toFixed(3)}, ${d.ci95[1].toFixed(3)}], p=${d.pValue.toFixed(4)}, Cohen's d=${d.cohensD.toFixed(2)} (n_current=${d.currentN}, n_baseline=${d.baselineN}). The regression is statistically significant at p<0.05 with at-least-small effect size.`,
+        evidencePath: `priorPeriodComparison.metrics.${name}`
+      });
+    }
+    for (const name of ppc.improvedMetrics) {
+      const d = ppc.metrics[name];
+      if (!d) continue;
+      out.push({
+        priority: "low",
+        kind: "ship",
+        title: `${name} improved from ${d.baseline.toFixed(3)} \u2192 ${d.current.toFixed(3)} vs ${label}`,
+        detail: `Welch CI95 = [${d.ci95[0].toFixed(3)}, ${d.ci95[1].toFixed(3)}], p=${d.pValue.toFixed(4)}, Cohen's d=${d.cohensD.toFixed(2)} (n_current=${d.currentN}, n_baseline=${d.baselineN}). Statistically significant improvement worth flagging.`,
+        evidencePath: `priorPeriodComparison.metrics.${name}`
+      });
+    }
+  }
   if (ctx.composite.n > 0) {
     if (ctx.composite.mean < 0.3) {
       const tail = ctx.composite.tailRuns ?? [];