@tangle-network/agent-eval 0.48.0 → 0.50.0

package/dist/chunk-MNL6LXGQ.js.map

@@ -1 +0,0 @@
-{"version":3,"sources":["../src/summary-report.ts","../src/sequential.ts"],"sourcesContent":["/**\n * Reporting helpers — production summaries and paper-quality figures — sit alongside `reporter.ts` rather\n * than replacing it.\n *\n * Three artefacts:\n *\n *   - `summaryTable`           Markdown table of per-candidate means,\n *                            95% bootstrap CIs, BH-adjusted Wilcoxon\n *                            p-values, and Cohen's d versus a\n *                            comparator candidate.\n *   - `paretoChart`         Abstract spec for a cost vs quality\n *                            scatter, with gate decisions overlaid.\n *                            Returns numbers + labels — caller\n *                            chooses the plotting library.\n *   - `gainHistogram`\n *                            Per-item paired holdout deltas as a\n *                            histogram spec (bins + counts + median +\n *                            CI). Same \"data, not images\" contract.\n *\n * The figure types are PlotSpecs — JSON-friendly, library-agnostic.\n * They aren't React components and they aren't PNGs; they are\n * what you'd hand to vega-lite, plotly, matplotlib, or your own\n * Canvas renderer to draw the actual figure.\n */\n\nimport type { GateDecision } from './held-out-gate'\nimport type { FailureClusterReport } from './pipelines/failure-cluster'\nimport { canonicalize, hashJson } from './pre-registration'\nimport type { RunRecord } from './run-record'\nimport {\n  benjaminiHochberg,\n  cohensD,\n  confidenceInterval,\n  pairedBootstrap,\n  pairedMde,\n  wilcoxonSignedRank,\n} from './statistics'\n\n// ── summaryTable ───────────────────────────────────────────────────────\n\nexport interface SummaryTableOptions {\n  /** Comparator candidate id. Wilcoxon + Cohen's d are computed\n   *  versus this candidate. Required for paired stats columns. */\n  comparator?: string\n  /** Which split to read scores from. Default 'holdout'. */\n  split?: 'search' | 'holdout'\n  /** Confidence level for the bootstrap CI on the mean. Default 0.95. */\n  confidence?: number\n  /** FDR for BH adjustment of the comparison p-values. Default 0.05. */\n  fdr?: number\n}\n\nexport interface SummaryTableRow {\n  candidateId: string\n  n: number\n  mean: number\n  ciLow: number\n  ciHigh: number\n  /** BH-adjusted q-value vs comparator. NaN if no comparator. */\n  qValue: number\n  /** Cohen's d vs comparator. NaN if no comparator. */\n  cohensD: number\n}\n\nexport interface SummaryTable {\n  rows: SummaryTableRow[]\n  comparator: string | null\n  split: 'search' | 'holdout'\n  /** Pre-rendered markdown — drop into a paper or PR. */\n  markdown: string\n}\n\n/**\n * Table 1 helper. Buckets runs by `candidateId`, computes mean +\n * bootstrap CI on the chosen split, and (when a comparator is given)\n * BH-adjusted Wilcoxon p + Cohen's d versus that comparator.\n */\nexport function summaryTable(runs: RunRecord[], opts: SummaryTableOptions = {}): SummaryTable {\n  const split = opts.split ?? 'holdout'\n  const confidence = opts.confidence ?? 0.95\n  const fdr = opts.fdr ?? 0.05\n  const comparator = opts.comparator ?? null\n  const scoreField = split === 'holdout' ? 'holdoutScore' : 'searchScore'\n\n  const byCandidate = new Map<string, { runs: RunRecord[]; scores: number[] }>()\n  for (const r of runs) {\n    if (r.splitTag !== split) continue\n    const v = r.outcome[scoreField]\n    if (typeof v !== 'number' || !Number.isFinite(v)) continue\n    const bucket = byCandidate.get(r.candidateId) ?? { runs: [], scores: [] }\n    bucket.runs.push(r)\n    bucket.scores.push(v)\n    byCandidate.set(r.candidateId, bucket)\n  }\n\n  const candidateIds = [...byCandidate.keys()].sort()\n  const compRuns = comparator ? byCandidate.get(comparator) : undefined\n\n  // First pass: per-candidate means + CIs + raw p-values.\n  const tentative: Array<SummaryTableRow & { rawP: number }> = []\n  for (const id of candidateIds) {\n    const bucket = byCandidate.get(id)!\n    const ci = confidenceInterval(bucket.scores, confidence)\n    let rawP = Number.NaN\n    let d = Number.NaN\n    if (comparator && compRuns && id !== comparator) {\n      const paired = pairScoresByKey(bucket.runs, compRuns.runs, scoreField)\n      if (paired.before.length >= 6) {\n        rawP = wilcoxonSignedRank(paired.before, paired.after).p\n      }\n      d = cohensD(compRuns.scores, bucket.scores)\n    }\n    tentative.push({\n      candidateId: id,\n      n: bucket.scores.length,\n      mean: ci.mean,\n      ciLow: ci.lower,\n      ciHigh: ci.upper,\n      qValue: rawP,\n      cohensD: d,\n      rawP,\n    })\n  }\n\n  // BH-adjust across the comparison set (skip NaN rows / the\n  // comparator itself). Adjustment is a no-op when there are 0 or 1\n  // comparators.\n  if (comparator) {\n    const idxs: number[] = []\n    const ps: number[] = []\n    for (let i = 0; i < tentative.length; i++) {\n      const r = tentative[i]!\n      if (r.candidateId === comparator) continue\n      if (!Number.isFinite(r.rawP)) continue\n      idxs.push(i)\n      ps.push(r.rawP)\n    }\n    if (ps.length > 0) {\n      const { qValues } = benjaminiHochberg(ps, fdr)\n      for (let k = 0; k < idxs.length; k++) {\n        tentative[idxs[k]!]!.qValue = qValues[k]!\n      }\n    }\n  }\n\n  const rows = tentative.map(({ rawP: _rawP, ...rest }) => rest)\n  const markdown = renderSummaryTableMarkdown(rows, comparator, split)\n  return { rows, comparator, split, markdown }\n}\n\nfunction pairScoresByKey(\n  candidate: RunRecord[],\n  baseline: RunRecord[],\n  scoreField: 'searchScore' | 'holdoutScore',\n): { before: number[]; after: number[] } {\n  const baseIdx = new Map<string, number>()\n  for (const r of baseline) {\n    const v = r.outcome[scoreField]\n    if (typeof v === 'number' && Number.isFinite(v)) {\n      baseIdx.set(`${r.experimentId}::${r.seed}`, v)\n    }\n  }\n  const before: number[] = []\n  const after: number[] = []\n  for (const r of candidate) {\n    const v = r.outcome[scoreField]\n    if (typeof v !== 'number' || !Number.isFinite(v)) continue\n    const key = `${r.experimentId}::${r.seed}`\n    const b = baseIdx.get(key)\n    if (b === undefined) continue\n    before.push(b)\n    after.push(v)\n  }\n  return { before, after }\n}\n\nfunction renderSummaryTableMarkdown(\n  rows: SummaryTableRow[],\n  comparator: string | null,\n  split: 'search' | 'holdout',\n): string {\n  const lines: string[] = []\n  const cmpLabel = comparator ? ` (vs ${comparator})` : ''\n  lines.push(`Summary Table — ${split} split${cmpLabel}`)\n  lines.push('')\n  lines.push(\"| Candidate | N | Mean | 95% CI | q (BH) | Cohen's d |\")\n  lines.push('|---|---:|---:|---|---:|---:|')\n  for (const r of rows) {\n    const ci = `[${fmt(r.ciLow)}, ${fmt(r.ciHigh)}]`\n    const q = Number.isFinite(r.qValue) ? r.qValue.toFixed(4) : '—'\n    const d = Number.isFinite(r.cohensD) ? r.cohensD.toFixed(3) : '—'\n    lines.push(`| ${r.candidateId} | ${r.n} | ${fmt(r.mean)} | ${ci} | ${q} | ${d} |`)\n  }\n  return lines.join('\\n')\n}\n\n// ── paretoChart ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────\n\nexport interface ParetoPoint {\n  candidateId: string\n  /** Mean USD cost per run on the chosen split. */\n  cost: number\n  /** Mean score on the chosen split. */\n  quality: number\n  /** Number of runs that informed this point. */\n  n: number\n  /** Whether this candidate is on the Pareto frontier — high\n   *  quality, low cost, no dominator. */\n  onFrontier: boolean\n  /** Optional gate verdict for this candidate, if a `GateDecision`\n   *  for it was passed in. */\n  gate?: 'promote' | 'reject_few_runs' | 'reject_negative_delta' | 'reject_overfit_gap' | null\n}\n\nexport interface ParetoFigureSpec {\n  kind: 'pareto-cost-quality'\n  split: 'search' | 'holdout'\n  points: ParetoPoint[]\n  axes: { x: 'costUsd'; y: 'score' }\n}\n\n/**\n * Cost vs quality scatter spec. `gateDecisions` is keyed by\n * candidate id; if present, every point picks up the gate verdict\n * for overlay.\n */\nexport function paretoChart(\n  runs: RunRecord[],\n  opts: {\n    split?: 'search' | 'holdout'\n    gateDecisions?: Record<string, GateDecision>\n  } = {},\n): ParetoFigureSpec {\n  const split = opts.split ?? 'holdout'\n  const scoreField = split === 'holdout' ? 'holdoutScore' : 'searchScore'\n\n  const buckets = new Map<string, { cost: number[]; quality: number[] }>()\n  for (const r of runs) {\n    if (r.splitTag !== split) continue\n    const v = r.outcome[scoreField]\n    if (typeof v !== 'number' || !Number.isFinite(v)) continue\n    const bucket = buckets.get(r.candidateId) ?? { cost: [], quality: [] }\n    bucket.cost.push(r.costUsd)\n    bucket.quality.push(v)\n    buckets.set(r.candidateId, bucket)\n  }\n\n  const points: ParetoPoint[] = []\n  for (const [candidateId, bucket] of buckets.entries()) {\n    points.push({\n      candidateId,\n      cost: avg(bucket.cost),\n      quality: avg(bucket.quality),\n      n: bucket.cost.length,\n      onFrontier: false,\n      gate: opts.gateDecisions?.[candidateId]\n        ? gateLabel(opts.gateDecisions[candidateId]!)\n        : undefined,\n    })\n  }\n\n  // Pareto: minimize cost, maximize quality. A point is dominated if\n  // some other point has lower-or-equal cost AND higher-or-equal\n  // quality with strict inequality somewhere.\n  for (const p of points) {\n    p.onFrontier = !points.some((q) => q !== p && dominates(q, p))\n  }\n\n  return {\n    kind: 'pareto-cost-quality',\n    split,\n    axes: { x: 'costUsd', y: 'score' },\n    points,\n  }\n}\n\nfunction dominates(a: ParetoPoint, b: ParetoPoint): boolean {\n  return a.cost <= b.cost && a.quality >= b.quality && (a.cost < b.cost || a.quality > b.quality)\n}\n\nfunction gateLabel(d: GateDecision): ParetoPoint['gate'] {\n  if (d.promote) return 'promote'\n  if (d.rejectionCode === 'few_runs') return 'reject_few_runs'\n  if (d.rejectionCode === 'negative_delta') return 'reject_negative_delta'\n  if (d.rejectionCode === 'overfit_gap') return 'reject_overfit_gap'\n  return null\n}\n\n// ── gainHistogram ───────────────────────────────────────────\n\nexport interface GainDistributionBin {\n  /** Inclusive lower edge. */\n  lo: number\n  /** Exclusive upper edge (or inclusive if it's the last bin). */\n  hi: number\n  /** Number of pairs whose delta lands in this bin. */\n  count: number\n}\n\nexport interface GainDistributionFigureSpec {\n  kind: 'gain-distribution'\n  candidateId: string\n  comparator: string\n  split: 'search' | 'holdout'\n  /** Number of pairs used. */\n  n: number\n  bins: GainDistributionBin[]\n  median: number\n  ci: { low: number; high: number }\n}\n\nexport interface GainDistributionOptions {\n  /** Number of histogram bins. Default 11 (so the centre is exact at 0). */\n  bins?: number\n  /** Which split to use. Default 'holdout'. */\n  split?: 'search' | 'holdout'\n  /** Confidence level for the CI. Default 0.95. */\n  confidence?: number\n  /** Bootstrap resamples. Default 2000. */\n  resamples?: number\n  /** Deterministic seed. */\n  seed?: number\n}\n\n/**\n * Held-out improvement distribution: per-pair delta (candidate −\n * comparator), histogrammed. Includes the bootstrap CI on the median\n * delta — same primitive the promotion gate uses.\n */\nexport function gainHistogram(\n  runs: RunRecord[],\n  candidateId: string,\n  comparator: string,\n  opts: GainDistributionOptions = {},\n): GainDistributionFigureSpec {\n  const split = opts.split ?? 'holdout'\n  const scoreField = split === 'holdout' ? 'holdoutScore' : 'searchScore'\n  const binCount = opts.bins ?? 11\n  if (binCount < 1) throw new Error('gainHistogram: bins must be ≥ 1')\n\n  const candidate = runs.filter((r) => r.candidateId === candidateId && r.splitTag === split)\n  const baseline = runs.filter((r) => r.candidateId === comparator && r.splitTag === split)\n  // pairScoresByKey returns before=baseline-score, after=candidate-score\n  // for each (experimentId, seed) pair where both sides recorded a\n  // valid score on this split. delta = after - before = candidate - baseline.\n  const { before, after } = pairScoresByKey(candidate, baseline, scoreField)\n  const n = before.length\n\n  if (n === 0) {\n    return {\n      kind: 'gain-distribution',\n      candidateId,\n      comparator,\n      split,\n      n: 0,\n      bins: [],\n      median: 0,\n      ci: { low: 0, high: 0 },\n    }\n  }\n\n  const deltas = before.map((b, i) => after[i]! - b)\n  const sortedDeltas = [...deltas].sort((a, b) => a - b)\n  const median = medianOfSorted(sortedDeltas)\n  const min = sortedDeltas[0]!\n  const max = sortedDeltas[sortedDeltas.length - 1]!\n\n  // Symmetric bins around the wider of (|min|, |max|) so the chart\n  // visually centres on zero without dropping outliers.\n  const bound = Math.max(Math.abs(min), Math.abs(max), 1e-6)\n  const lo = -bound\n  const hi = bound\n  const width = (hi - lo) / binCount\n  const bins: GainDistributionBin[] = []\n  for (let i = 0; i < binCount; i++) {\n    bins.push({ lo: lo + i * width, hi: lo + (i + 1) * width, count: 0 })\n  }\n  for (const d of deltas) {\n    let idx = Math.floor((d - lo) / width)\n    if (idx < 0) idx = 0\n    if (idx >= binCount) idx = binCount - 1\n    bins[idx]!.count += 1\n  }\n\n  const ci = pairedBootstrap(before, after, {\n    confidence: opts.confidence ?? 0.95,\n    resamples: opts.resamples ?? 2000,\n    statistic: 'median',\n    seed: opts.seed,\n  })\n\n  return {\n    kind: 'gain-distribution',\n    candidateId,\n    comparator,\n    split,\n    n,\n    bins,\n    median,\n    ci: { low: ci.low, high: ci.high },\n  }\n}\n\n// ── researchReport ───────────────────────────────────────────────────\n\nexport type ResearchReportDecision =\n  | 'promote'\n  | 'hold'\n  | 'reject'\n  | 'equivalent'\n  | 'needs_more_data'\n\n/**\n * Hard floor below which a paired comparison is treated as uninformative\n * regardless of `minPairs`. Mirrors the lower limit on Wilcoxon signed-rank\n * exact tables; below this the test has no power to separate effect sizes.\n */\nexport const RESEARCH_REPORT_HARD_PAIR_FLOOR = 6\n\nexport interface ResearchReportOptions {\n  /** Human-readable report title. */\n  title?: string\n  /** Comparator candidate id. Required for statistical decision guidance. */\n  comparator?: string\n  /** Which split to use for the primary decision. Default 'holdout'. */\n  split?: 'search' | 'holdout'\n  /** Confidence level used by lower-level report helpers. Default 0.95. */\n  confidence?: number\n  /** FDR threshold for q-values. Default 0.05. */\n  fdr?: number\n  /**\n   * Soft floor on paired observations before issuing a directional\n   * promote / reject. Below this we report `needs_more_data` and surface the\n   * minimum detectable effect at the current N. Default 20 — chosen so the\n   * Wilcoxon signed-rank approximation is reasonable and so the paired\n   * bootstrap CI has non-degenerate coverage. Hard floor is enforced at\n   * `RESEARCH_REPORT_HARD_PAIR_FLOOR` (6) regardless of this value.\n   */\n  minPairs?: number\n  /**\n   * Region of Practical Equivalence on the paired delta. When a candidate's\n   * paired-delta CI is fully contained in `[low, high]`, the decision is\n   * `equivalent` rather than `hold`. Sourced from the domain owner — there is\n   * no statistically-defensible default.\n   */\n  rope?: { low: number; high: number }\n  /**\n   * Power for the minimum detectable effect (MDE) reported on each candidate.\n   * Default 0.8.\n   */\n  mdePower?: number\n  /**\n   * Two-sided alpha for the MDE. Default matches `fdr` so the reported MDE\n   * lines up with the test the report actually runs.\n   */\n  mdeAlpha?: number\n  /** Optional held-out gate decisions keyed by candidate id. */\n  gateDecisions?: Record<string, GateDecision>\n  /** Optional failure clusters from failureClusterView. */\n  failureClusters?: FailureClusterReport\n  /** Build gain histograms for these candidates. Defaults to all non-comparator candidates. */\n  candidateIds?: string[]\n  /** Deterministic bootstrap seed passed to gainHistogram and the posterior helper. */\n  seed?: number\n  /** Report timestamp. Defaults to current time. */\n  generatedAt?: string\n  /**\n   * Hash of a preregistered protocol (e.g. `signManifest({...}).contentHash`).\n   * Embedded verbatim in the report so the analysis can be cited as the\n   * preregistered one rather than a post-hoc fishing expedition.\n   */\n  preregistrationHash?: string\n}\n\nexport interface ResearchReportRecommendation {\n  decision: ResearchReportDecision\n  candidateId: string | null\n  rationale: string[]\n  risks: string[]\n  nextActions: string[]\n}\n\nexport interface ResearchReportCandidate {\n  candidateId: string\n  n: number\n  mean: number\n  ciLow: number\n  ciHigh: number\n  qValue: number\n  cohensD: number\n  meanDeltaVsComparator: number | null\n  pairedN: number\n  medianGain: number | null\n  meanGain: number | null\n  gainCi: { low: number; high: number } | null\n  /**\n   * Bayesian-bootstrap-style posterior summaries on the paired delta. Computed\n   * from the same resamples that produce the gain CI; interpretable as\n   * \"fraction of resamples in which the candidate beats the comparator on\n   * matched pairs.\"\n   */\n  prGreaterThanZero: number | null\n  prInRope: number | null\n  /**\n   * Minimum detectable effect (in score units) at the candidate's paired N,\n   * the configured power, and the configured alpha. Standardised by the\n   * observed paired-delta SD and inverted via `requiredSampleSize`. Reported\n   * for every candidate so a `needs_more_data` verdict is actionable.\n   */\n  mde: number | null\n  onParetoFrontier: boolean\n  gate?: ParetoPoint['gate']\n  decision: ResearchReportDecision\n  decisionReason: string\n}\n\nexport interface ResearchReportMethodology {\n  /**\n   * Plain-language assumptions the report depends on. Read these first when\n   * deciding whether the verdict is load-bearing for a launch decision.\n   */\n  assumptions: string[]\n  /** Tests and estimators the verdict was computed from. */\n  methods: string[]\n  /** Alternatives the author considered and why this report didn't take them. */\n  alternatives: string[]\n  /** Failure modes — when this report should NOT drive a decision. */\n  whenNotToApply: string[]\n  /** Citations for the methodological choices above. */\n  citations: string[]\n}\n\nexport interface ResearchReport {\n  kind: 'agent-eval-research-report'\n  title: string\n  generatedAt: string\n  split: 'search' | 'holdout'\n  comparator: string | null\n  /**\n   * SHA-256 over the canonicalised set of `(runId, candidateId, split)` triples\n   * the report was computed from, plus the comparator and split. Stable across\n   * key insertion order; recomputable by the reader to verify provenance.\n   */\n  runFingerprint: string\n  preregistrationHash: string | null\n  rope: { low: number; high: number } | null\n  executiveSummary: string[]\n  recommendation: ResearchReportRecommendation\n  candidates: ResearchReportCandidate[]\n  summary: SummaryTable\n  charts: {\n    pareto: ParetoFigureSpec\n    gains: GainDistributionFigureSpec[]\n  }\n  methodology: ResearchReportMethodology\n  failureClusters?: FailureClusterReport\n  markdown: string\n  html: string\n}\n\n/**\n * Internal: paired posterior summary on (candidate − comparator) deltas.\n *\n * Returns the bootstrap CI on the median (matching `gainHistogram`) plus\n * Bayesian-flavoured posterior summaries Pr(Δ>0) and Pr(Δ∈ROPE) computed\n * from a Bayesian-bootstrap-flavoured resample distribution on the mean\n * (Rubin 1981 — non-informative bootstrap-prior duality), and the\n * minimum detectable paired effect at the configured power and α.\n *\n * `null` is returned when no paired observations exist; callers must\n * gate on `n` before consuming the bootstrap statistics.\n */\nfunction pairedPosterior(\n  runs: RunRecord[],\n  candidateId: string,\n  comparator: string,\n  opts: {\n    split: 'search' | 'holdout'\n    confidence: number\n    seed?: number\n    rope: { low: number; high: number } | null\n    mdePower: number\n    mdeAlpha: number\n  },\n): {\n  n: number\n  meanDelta: number\n  medianDelta: number\n  sdDelta: number\n  ci: { low: number; high: number }\n  prGreaterThanZero: number\n  prInRope: number | null\n  mde: number\n} | null {\n  const scoreField = opts.split === 'holdout' ? 'holdoutScore' : 'searchScore'\n  const candidate = runs.filter((r) => r.candidateId === candidateId && r.splitTag === opts.split)\n  const baseline = runs.filter((r) => r.candidateId === comparator && r.splitTag === opts.split)\n  const { before, after } = pairScoresByKey(candidate, baseline, scoreField)\n  const n = before.length\n  if (n === 0) return null\n\n  const deltas = before.map((b, i) => after[i]! - b)\n  const meanDelta = deltas.reduce((s, x) => s + x, 0) / n\n  const sortedDeltas = [...deltas].sort((a, b) => a - b)\n  const medianDelta = medianOfSorted(sortedDeltas)\n  const sdDelta = stdev(deltas, meanDelta)\n\n  const ci = pairedBootstrap(before, after, {\n    confidence: opts.confidence,\n    resamples: 2000,\n    statistic: 'median',\n    seed: opts.seed,\n  })\n\n  // Enumerate bootstrap-mean samples to derive posterior summaries on the\n  // mean delta. Same RNG family as `pairedBootstrap` but kept local so we can\n  // examine the full sample distribution rather than just quantiles.\n  const meanSamples = bootstrapMeanSamples(deltas, 2000, opts.seed)\n  const prGreaterThanZero =\n    meanSamples.length === 0 ? 0 : meanSamples.filter((s) => s > 0).length / meanSamples.length\n  const prInRope =\n    opts.rope === null || meanSamples.length === 0\n      ? null\n      : meanSamples.filter((s) => s >= opts.rope!.low && s <= opts.rope!.high).length /\n        meanSamples.length\n\n  const dStandardised = pairedMde({ nPaired: n, alpha: opts.mdeAlpha, power: opts.mdePower })\n  const mde = sdDelta === 0 ? 0 : dStandardised * sdDelta\n\n  return {\n    n,\n    meanDelta,\n    medianDelta,\n    sdDelta,\n    ci: { low: ci.low, high: ci.high },\n    prGreaterThanZero,\n    prInRope,\n    mde,\n  }\n}\n\nfunction bootstrapMeanSamples(deltas: number[], resamples: number, seed?: number): number[] {\n  const n = deltas.length\n  if (n === 0) return []\n  if (n === 1) return new Array<number>(resamples).fill(deltas[0]!)\n  const rng = seedRng(seed)\n  const samples = new Array<number>(resamples)\n  for (let b = 0; b < resamples; b++) {\n    let sum = 0\n    for (let k = 0; k < n; k++) sum += deltas[Math.floor(rng() * n)]!\n    samples[b] = sum / n\n  }\n  return samples\n}\n\nfunction seedRng(seed?: number): () => number {\n  if (seed === undefined) return Math.random\n  let s = seed >>> 0\n  return () => {\n    s = (s + 0x6d2b79f5) >>> 0\n    let t = s\n    t = Math.imul(t ^ (t >>> 15), t | 1)\n    t ^= t + Math.imul(t ^ (t >>> 7), t | 61)\n    return ((t ^ (t >>> 14)) >>> 0) / 4294967296\n  }\n}\n\nfunction stdev(xs: number[], mean: number): number {\n  if (xs.length < 2) return 0\n  let sse = 0\n  for (const x of xs) sse += (x - mean) ** 2\n  return Math.sqrt(sse / (xs.length - 1))\n}\n\n/**\n * Executive research report for CPO / AI-lead / launch-review consumption.\n *\n * Composes:\n *   - `summaryTable`         marginal stats with BH-FDR-adjusted q-values\n *   - `paretoChart`           cost-vs-quality frontier with gate overlay\n *   - `gainHistogram`         per-candidate paired-delta distribution\n *   - paired posterior (this file): bootstrap CI on median, Pr(Δ>0),\n *                              Pr(Δ∈ROPE), MDE at the configured power\n *\n * Decisions are made on paired evidence — never on marginal means alone —\n * and respect any held-out gate decision the caller passes through. The\n * report embeds a SHA-256 fingerprint of the input run set and, optionally,\n * the hash of a preregistered protocol so a downstream reader can verify\n * provenance and that the analysis was the preregistered one.\n *\n * Async because the fingerprint uses Web Crypto via `hashJson`; deterministic\n * for any fixed `runs`, `seed`, and ROPE.\n */\nexport async function researchReport(\n  runs: RunRecord[],\n  opts: ResearchReportOptions = {},\n): Promise<ResearchReport> {\n  const split = opts.split ?? 'holdout'\n  const comparator = opts.comparator ?? null\n  const confidence = opts.confidence ?? 0.95\n  const fdr = opts.fdr ?? 0.05\n  const minPairs = Math.max(opts.minPairs ?? 20, RESEARCH_REPORT_HARD_PAIR_FLOOR)\n  const rope = opts.rope ?? null\n  const mdePower = opts.mdePower ?? 0.8\n  const mdeAlpha = opts.mdeAlpha ?? fdr\n  const title = opts.title ?? 'Agent Evaluation Research Report'\n  const generatedAt = opts.generatedAt ?? new Date().toISOString()\n  const preregistrationHash = opts.preregistrationHash ?? null\n\n  if (rope && !(Number.isFinite(rope.low) && Number.isFinite(rope.high) && rope.low <= rope.high)) {\n    throw new Error(\n      `researchReport: rope must satisfy low ≤ high with finite bounds, got ${JSON.stringify(rope)}`,\n    )\n  }\n\n  const summary = summaryTable(runs, {\n    comparator: comparator ?? undefined,\n    split,\n    confidence,\n    fdr,\n  })\n  const pareto = paretoChart(runs, { split, gateDecisions: opts.gateDecisions })\n  const candidateIds =\n    opts.candidateIds ?? summary.rows.map((r) => r.candidateId).filter((id) => id !== comparator)\n  const gains = comparator\n    ? candidateIds.map((id) =>\n        gainHistogram(runs, id, comparator, {\n          split,\n          confidence,\n          seed: opts.seed,\n        }),\n      )\n    : []\n\n  const gainByCandidate = new Map(gains.map((g) => [g.candidateId, g]))\n  const paretoByCandidate = new Map(pareto.points.map((p) => [p.candidateId, p]))\n  const posteriorByCandidate = new Map<string, ReturnType<typeof pairedPosterior>>()\n  if (comparator) {\n    for (const id of candidateIds) {\n      posteriorByCandidate.set(\n        id,\n        pairedPosterior(runs, id, comparator, {\n          split,\n          confidence,\n          seed: opts.seed,\n          rope,\n          mdePower,\n          mdeAlpha,\n        }),\n      )\n    }\n  }\n\n  const candidates = summary.rows\n    .map((row) => {\n      const gain = gainByCandidate.get(row.candidateId)\n      const point = paretoByCandidate.get(row.candidateId)\n      const posterior = posteriorByCandidate.get(row.candidateId) ?? null\n      const classified = classifyCandidate(row, {\n        comparator,\n        posterior,\n        point,\n        fdr,\n        minPairs,\n        rope,\n      })\n      return {\n        candidateId: row.candidateId,\n        n: row.n,\n        mean: row.mean,\n        ciLow: row.ciLow,\n        ciHigh: row.ciHigh,\n        qValue: row.qValue,\n        cohensD: row.cohensD,\n        meanDeltaVsComparator: posterior ? posterior.meanDelta : null,\n        pairedN: posterior?.n ?? gain?.n ?? 0,\n        medianGain: posterior ? posterior.medianDelta : gain ? gain.median : null,\n        meanGain: posterior ? posterior.meanDelta : null,\n        gainCi: posterior ? posterior.ci : gain ? gain.ci : null,\n        prGreaterThanZero: posterior ? posterior.prGreaterThanZero : null,\n        prInRope: posterior ? posterior.prInRope : null,\n        mde: posterior ? posterior.mde : null,\n        onParetoFrontier: point?.onFrontier ?? false,\n        gate: point?.gate,\n        decision: classified.decision,\n        decisionReason: classified.reason,\n      } satisfies ResearchReportCandidate\n    })\n    .sort((a, b) => {\n      const decisionRank = decisionWeight(b.decision) - decisionWeight(a.decision)\n      if (decisionRank !== 0) return decisionRank\n      return b.mean - a.mean\n    })\n\n  const recommendation = buildRecommendation(candidates, {\n    comparator,\n    failureClusters: opts.failureClusters,\n    rope,\n    minPairs,\n    preregistrationHash,\n  })\n  const executiveSummary = buildExecutiveSummary(candidates, recommendation, {\n    comparator,\n    split,\n    failureClusters: opts.failureClusters,\n    preregistrationHash,\n  })\n  const methodology = buildMethodology({\n    split,\n    comparator,\n    fdr,\n    minPairs,\n    rope,\n    confidence,\n    mdePower,\n    mdeAlpha,\n  })\n\n  const runFingerprint = await hashJson(\n    canonicalize({\n      triples: runs\n        .filter((r) => r.splitTag === split)\n        .map((r) => ({ runId: r.runId, candidateId: r.candidateId, splitTag: r.splitTag }))\n        .sort((a, b) => a.runId.localeCompare(b.runId)),\n      comparator,\n      split,\n    }),\n  )\n\n  const markdown = renderResearchMarkdown({\n    title,\n    generatedAt,\n    split,\n    comparator,\n    rope,\n    runFingerprint,\n    preregistrationHash,\n    executiveSummary,\n    recommendation,\n    candidates,\n    summary,\n    pareto,\n    gains,\n    methodology,\n    failureClusters: opts.failureClusters,\n  })\n  const html = renderResearchHtml(markdown, title)\n\n  return {\n    kind: 'agent-eval-research-report',\n    title,\n    generatedAt,\n    split,\n    comparator,\n    runFingerprint,\n    preregistrationHash,\n    rope,\n    executiveSummary,\n    recommendation,\n    candidates,\n    summary,\n    charts: { pareto, gains },\n    methodology,\n    failureClusters: opts.failureClusters,\n    markdown,\n    html,\n  }\n}\n\nfunction buildMethodology(ctx: {\n  split: 'search' | 'holdout'\n  comparator: string | null\n  fdr: number\n  minPairs: number\n  rope: { low: number; high: number } | null\n  confidence: number\n  mdePower: number\n  mdeAlpha: number\n}): ResearchReportMethodology {\n  const assumptions: string[] = [\n    'Pairs are matched by (experimentId, seed); the candidate and comparator see the same scenarios in the same order.',\n    'Paired deltas are exchangeable conditional on the matched scenario — no mid-run distribution shift.',\n    `Decisions are pre-specified at fdr=${ctx.fdr}, minPairs=${ctx.minPairs}, confidence=${ctx.confidence}; deviating from these post-hoc invalidates the false-discovery control.`,\n  ]\n  if (ctx.rope) {\n    assumptions.push(\n      `The Region of Practical Equivalence ${formatRope(ctx.rope)} is supplied by the domain owner; equivalent verdicts are only meaningful if that range is treated as the standing definition of \"no material difference.\"`,\n    )\n  }\n  if (ctx.comparator === null) {\n    assumptions.push('No comparator was configured; this run is descriptive, not causal.')\n  }\n  const methods: string[] = [\n    \"Marginal scores summarised with BH-FDR-adjusted Wilcoxon signed-rank q-values and Cohen's d via summaryTable.\",\n    'Paired evidence summarised with bootstrap CI on the median delta and Bayesian-bootstrap-style Pr(Δ>0) and Pr(Δ∈ROPE) on the mean delta.',\n    `Minimum detectable effect reported per candidate at α=${ctx.mdeAlpha} (two-sided), power=${ctx.mdePower}, standardised by the observed paired-delta SD.`,\n    'Pareto frontier flagged as a separate axis (cost vs quality); a candidate can be on-frontier without winning the paired test.',\n    'Held-out gate decisions, when supplied, override the statistical verdict in the reject direction.',\n  ]\n  const alternatives: string[] = [\n    'Paired t-test rejected: not robust to the heavy-tailed score distributions common in agent benchmarks.',\n    'Unpaired Mann–Whitney rejected: matched scenarios make pairing free; unpaired throws away that variance reduction.',\n    'Sequential / always-valid inference (e-values, mSPRT) is the right tool for iterative sweeps and is out of scope for this single-look report — preregister and run once, or wrap this report in an alpha-spending schedule.',\n    'Hierarchical Bayesian shrinkage across many candidates is future work; the current ranking uses raw paired statistics.',\n  ]\n  const whenNotToApply: string[] = [\n    `Paired N below ${RESEARCH_REPORT_HARD_PAIR_FLOOR} on any candidate — the bootstrap CI is degenerate.`,\n    'Comparator chosen post-hoc by inspecting the same data; q-values are no longer false-discovery-controlled.',\n    'Scenarios not drawn under a stable preregistered protocol; the report can describe the data but cannot anchor a launch decision.',\n    'Score distributions with mid-run shift (judge model swap, rubric change, infra outage) — pair exchangeability is violated.',\n  ]\n  const citations: string[] = [\n    'Benjamini, Y. & Hochberg, Y. (1995). Controlling the false discovery rate: a practical and powerful approach to multiple testing. JRSS B, 57(1), 289–300.',\n    'Wilcoxon, F. (1945). Individual comparisons by ranking methods. Biometrics Bulletin, 1(6), 80–83.',\n    'Efron, B. (1979). Bootstrap methods: another look at the jackknife. Annals of Statistics, 7(1), 1–26.',\n    'Rubin, D. B. (1981). The Bayesian bootstrap. Annals of Statistics, 9(1), 130–134.',\n    'Kruschke, J. K. (2018). Rejecting or accepting parameter values in Bayesian estimation. Advances in Methods and Practices in Psychological Science, 1(2), 270–280. (ROPE.)',\n  ]\n  return { assumptions, methods, alternatives, whenNotToApply, citations }\n}\n\nfunction formatRope(rope: { low: number; high: number }): string {\n  return `[${fmt(rope.low)}, ${fmt(rope.high)}]`\n}\n\nfunction classifyCandidate(\n  row: SummaryTableRow,\n  ctx: {\n    comparator: string | null\n    posterior: ReturnType<typeof pairedPosterior> | null\n    point?: ParetoPoint\n    fdr: number\n    minPairs: number\n    rope: { low: number; high: number } | null\n  },\n): { decision: ResearchReportDecision; reason: string } {\n  if (ctx.comparator && row.candidateId === ctx.comparator) {\n    return { decision: 'hold', reason: 'Comparator baseline.' }\n  }\n  if (!ctx.comparator) {\n    return {\n      decision: ctx.point?.onFrontier ? 'hold' : 'needs_more_data',\n      reason:\n        'No comparator configured; report ranks candidates but cannot anchor a promotion call.',\n    }\n  }\n  // Held-out gate is authoritative against — promote requires statistical\n  // evidence even if the gate said `promote` (gate is necessary, not sufficient).\n  if (ctx.point?.gate && ctx.point.gate !== 'promote') {\n    return { decision: 'reject', reason: `Held-out gate returned ${ctx.point.gate}.` }\n  }\n  if (!ctx.posterior || ctx.posterior.n < RESEARCH_REPORT_HARD_PAIR_FLOOR) {\n    return {\n      decision: 'needs_more_data',\n      reason: `Only ${ctx.posterior?.n ?? 0} paired observations; below hard floor of ${RESEARCH_REPORT_HARD_PAIR_FLOOR} for any paired inference.`,\n    }\n  }\n  const ci = ctx.posterior.ci\n  if (ctx.rope && ci.low >= ctx.rope.low && ci.high <= ctx.rope.high) {\n    return {\n      decision: 'equivalent',\n      reason: `Paired-delta CI [${fmt(ci.low)}, ${fmt(ci.high)}] is fully inside ROPE ${formatRope(ctx.rope)}; candidate is practically equivalent to comparator.`,\n    }\n  }\n  const significant = Number.isFinite(row.qValue) && row.qValue <= ctx.fdr\n  const gainPositive = ci.low > 0\n  const gainNegative = ci.high < 0\n  if (gainNegative) {\n    return {\n      decision: 'reject',\n      reason: `Paired-delta CI [${fmt(ci.low)}, ${fmt(ci.high)}] lies entirely below zero.`,\n    }\n  }\n  if (ctx.posterior.n < ctx.minPairs) {\n    return {\n      decision: 'needs_more_data',\n      reason: `Only ${ctx.posterior.n} paired observations; minimum detectable effect at this N is ${fmt(ctx.posterior.mde)} score units (need ≥ ${ctx.minPairs} pairs to issue a directional verdict).`,\n    }\n  }\n  if (significant && gainPositive) {\n    return {\n      decision: 'promote',\n      reason: `BH-adjusted q=${fmt(row.qValue)} ≤ ${ctx.fdr} and paired-delta CI [${fmt(ci.low)}, ${fmt(ci.high)}] excludes zero; Pr(Δ>0)=${fmt(ctx.posterior.prGreaterThanZero)}.`,\n    }\n  }\n  return {\n    decision: 'hold',\n    reason: `Pr(Δ>0)=${fmt(ctx.posterior.prGreaterThanZero)} but CI [${fmt(ci.low)}, ${fmt(ci.high)}] crosses zero; effect not decisive at fdr=${ctx.fdr}.`,\n  }\n}\n\nfunction buildRecommendation(\n  candidates: ResearchReportCandidate[],\n  ctx: {\n    comparator: string | null\n    failureClusters?: FailureClusterReport\n    rope: { low: number; high: number } | null\n    minPairs: number\n    preregistrationHash: string | null\n  },\n): ResearchReportRecommendation {\n  const nonComparator = candidates.filter((c) => c.candidateId !== ctx.comparator)\n  const bestPromote = nonComparator.find((c) => c.decision === 'promote')\n  const bestEquivalent = nonComparator.find((c) => c.decision === 'equivalent')\n  const chosen = bestPromote ?? bestEquivalent ?? nonComparator[0] ?? null\n  const decision: ResearchReportDecision = bestPromote\n    ? 'promote'\n    : nonComparator.some((c) => c.decision === 'needs_more_data')\n      ? 'needs_more_data'\n      : bestEquivalent\n        ? 'equivalent'\n        : nonComparator.some((c) => c.decision === 'hold')\n          ? 'hold'\n          : 'reject'\n\n  const rationale: string[] = []\n  const risks: string[] = []\n  const nextActions: string[] = []\n\n  if (chosen) {\n    rationale.push(`${chosen.candidateId}: ${chosen.decisionReason}`)\n    if (chosen.gainCi) {\n      const probSummary =\n        chosen.prGreaterThanZero !== null ? `, Pr(Δ>0)=${fmt(chosen.prGreaterThanZero)}` : ''\n      rationale.push(\n        `Median paired gain CI: [${fmt(chosen.gainCi.low)}, ${fmt(chosen.gainCi.high)}]${probSummary}.`,\n      )\n    }\n    if (chosen.mde !== null && Number.isFinite(chosen.mde)) {\n      rationale.push(`MDE at current paired N=${chosen.pairedN}: ${fmt(chosen.mde)} score units.`)\n    }\n  }\n  if (!ctx.comparator) {\n    risks.push('No comparator was configured; verdict is descriptive, not causal.')\n    nextActions.push('Re-run with a stable comparator candidate for paired inference.')\n  }\n  if (!ctx.preregistrationHash) {\n    risks.push(\n      'No preregistration hash supplied; readers cannot verify the analysis was specified before data inspection.',\n    )\n    nextActions.push(\n      'Sign a HypothesisManifest before the next sweep and pass `preregistrationHash` so the report cites it.',\n    )\n  }\n  if (ctx.rope === null && nonComparator.length > 0) {\n    risks.push(\n      'No ROPE configured; the report cannot distinguish \"equivalent\" from \"inconclusive\".',\n    )\n    nextActions.push(\n      'Define a domain-specific Region of Practical Equivalence and pass it to lock in the equivalence threshold.',\n    )\n  }\n  const inconclusive = nonComparator.filter((c) => c.decision === 'needs_more_data')\n  if (inconclusive.length > 0) {\n    const worst = inconclusive.reduce((a, b) => (b.pairedN < a.pairedN ? b : a))\n    risks.push(\n      `${inconclusive.length} candidate(s) below soft floor (${ctx.minPairs} pairs); thinnest is ${worst.candidateId} with ${worst.pairedN}.`,\n    )\n    nextActions.push(\n      `Collect at least ${ctx.minPairs - worst.pairedN} more matched holdout runs for ${worst.candidateId}.`,\n    )\n  }\n  const rejected = nonComparator.filter((c) => c.decision === 'reject')\n  if (rejected.length > 0) {\n    risks.push(\n      `${rejected.length} candidate(s) failed the paired test or held-out gate; do not ship those variants.`,\n    )\n  }\n  if (ctx.failureClusters && ctx.failureClusters.clusters.length > 0) {\n    const top = ctx.failureClusters.clusters[0]!\n    risks.push(`Top failure cluster: ${top.failureClass} across ${top.runCount} run(s).`)\n    nextActions.push('Prioritize the largest failure cluster before broad rollout.')\n  }\n  if (decision === 'promote') {\n    nextActions.push('Ship behind the existing promotion gate and monitor canaries.')\n  } else if (decision === 'hold') {\n    nextActions.push('Keep current production candidate while expanding holdout evidence.')\n  } else if (decision === 'equivalent') {\n    nextActions.push(\n      'Either keep the comparator (no quality regression) or promote on cost/latency grounds — equivalence does not justify either; the choice is a product decision, not a stats one.',\n    )\n  } else if (decision === 'reject') {\n    nextActions.push(\n      'Do not promote this sweep; inspect failures and generate a revised candidate.',\n    )\n  }\n\n  return {\n    decision,\n    candidateId: chosen?.candidateId ?? null,\n    rationale,\n    risks,\n    nextActions,\n  }\n}\n\nfunction buildExecutiveSummary(\n  candidates: ResearchReportCandidate[],\n  recommendation: ResearchReportRecommendation,\n  ctx: {\n    comparator: string | null\n    split: 'search' | 'holdout'\n    failureClusters?: FailureClusterReport\n    preregistrationHash: string | null\n  },\n): string[] {\n  const lines: string[] = []\n  const nonComparator = candidates.filter((c) => c.candidateId !== ctx.comparator)\n  lines.push(\n    `Evaluated ${nonComparator.length} candidate(s) on the ${ctx.split} split${ctx.comparator ? ` against ${ctx.comparator}` : ''}.`,\n  )\n  lines.push(\n    `Recommendation: ${recommendation.decision}${recommendation.candidateId ? ` ${recommendation.candidateId}` : ''}.`,\n  )\n  const promoted = nonComparator.filter((c) => c.decision === 'promote').length\n  const held = nonComparator.filter((c) => c.decision === 'hold').length\n  const equivalent = nonComparator.filter((c) => c.decision === 'equivalent').length\n  const rejected = nonComparator.filter((c) => c.decision === 'reject').length\n  const more = nonComparator.filter((c) => c.decision === 'needs_more_data').length\n  lines.push(\n    `Decision mix: ${promoted} promote, ${equivalent} equivalent, ${held} hold, ${rejected} reject, ${more} need more data.`,\n  )\n  const frontier = nonComparator.filter((c) => c.onParetoFrontier).map((c) => c.candidateId)\n  if (frontier.length > 0) lines.push(`Pareto-frontier candidates: ${frontier.join(', ')}.`)\n  if (ctx.failureClusters) {\n    lines.push(\n      `Failure clustering found ${ctx.failureClusters.totalFailures}/${ctx.failureClusters.totalRuns} failed runs across ${ctx.failureClusters.clusters.length} reportable cluster(s).`,\n    )\n  }\n  lines.push(\n    ctx.preregistrationHash\n      ? `Preregistered analysis: ${ctx.preregistrationHash.slice(0, 12)}…`\n      : 'Analysis is post-hoc — no preregistration hash supplied.',\n  )\n  return lines\n}\n\nfunction renderResearchMarkdown(report: {\n  title: string\n  generatedAt: string\n  split: 'search' | 'holdout'\n  comparator: string | null\n  executiveSummary: string[]\n  recommendation: ResearchReportRecommendation\n  candidates: ResearchReportCandidate[]\n  summary: SummaryTable\n  pareto: ParetoFigureSpec\n  gains: GainDistributionFigureSpec[]\n  rope: { low: number; high: number } | null\n  runFingerprint: string\n  preregistrationHash: string | null\n  methodology: ResearchReportMethodology\n  failureClusters?: FailureClusterReport\n}): string {\n  const lines: string[] = []\n  lines.push(`# ${report.title}`)\n  lines.push('')\n  lines.push(`**Generated:** ${report.generatedAt}`)\n  lines.push(`**Primary split:** ${report.split}`)\n  lines.push(`**Comparator:** ${report.comparator ?? 'not configured'}`)\n  lines.push(`**ROPE:** ${report.rope ? formatRope(report.rope) : 'not configured'}`)\n  lines.push(`**Run fingerprint:** \\`${report.runFingerprint}\\``)\n  lines.push(\n    `**Preregistration:** ${report.preregistrationHash ? `\\`${report.preregistrationHash}\\`` : 'none'}`,\n  )\n  lines.push('')\n  lines.push('## Executive Summary')\n  lines.push('')\n  for (const item of report.executiveSummary) lines.push(`- ${item}`)\n  lines.push('')\n  lines.push('## Recommendation')\n  lines.push('')\n  lines.push(`**Decision:** ${report.recommendation.decision}`)\n  lines.push(`**Candidate:** ${report.recommendation.candidateId ?? 'N/A'}`)\n  lines.push('')\n  lines.push('### Rationale')\n  lines.push('')\n  for (const item of report.recommendation.rationale) lines.push(`- ${item}`)\n  lines.push('')\n  lines.push('### Risks')\n  lines.push('')\n  for (const item of report.recommendation.risks.length\n    ? report.recommendation.risks\n    : ['No material report-level risks detected.']) {\n    lines.push(`- ${item}`)\n  }\n  lines.push('')\n  lines.push('### Next Actions')\n  lines.push('')\n  for (const item of report.recommendation.nextActions) lines.push(`- ${item}`)\n  lines.push('')\n  lines.push('## Candidate Decision Table')\n  lines.push('')\n  lines.push(\n    '| Candidate | Decision | Mean | Δ̄ | Pr(Δ>0) | q | d | Paired N | Median Gain CI | MDE | Pareto | Gate |',\n  )\n  lines.push('|---|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---|---:|---|---|')\n  for (const c of report.candidates) {\n    const delta = c.meanDeltaVsComparator === null ? '-' : signed(c.meanDeltaVsComparator)\n    const prGt = c.prGreaterThanZero === null ? '-' : c.prGreaterThanZero.toFixed(3)\n    const q = Number.isFinite(c.qValue) ? c.qValue.toFixed(4) : '-'\n    const d = Number.isFinite(c.cohensD) ? c.cohensD.toFixed(3) : '-'\n    const gain = c.gainCi ? `[${fmt(c.gainCi.low)}, ${fmt(c.gainCi.high)}]` : '-'\n    const mde = c.mde === null || !Number.isFinite(c.mde) ? '-' : fmt(c.mde)\n    lines.push(\n      `| ${c.candidateId} | ${c.decision} | ${fmt(c.mean)} | ${delta} | ${prGt} | ${q} | ${d} | ${c.pairedN} | ${gain} | ${mde} | ${c.onParetoFrontier ? 'yes' : 'no'} | ${c.gate ?? '-'} |`,\n    )\n  }\n  lines.push('')\n  lines.push('## Statistical Summary')\n  lines.push('')\n  lines.push(report.summary.markdown)\n  lines.push('')\n  lines.push('## Methodology')\n  lines.push('')\n  lines.push('### Assumptions')\n  lines.push('')\n  for (const item of report.methodology.assumptions) lines.push(`- ${item}`)\n  lines.push('')\n  lines.push('### Methods')\n  lines.push('')\n  for (const item of report.methodology.methods) lines.push(`- ${item}`)\n  lines.push('')\n  lines.push('### Alternatives Considered')\n  lines.push('')\n  for (const item of report.methodology.alternatives) lines.push(`- ${item}`)\n  lines.push('')\n  lines.push('### When NOT To Apply')\n  lines.push('')\n  for (const item of report.methodology.whenNotToApply) lines.push(`- ${item}`)\n  lines.push('')\n  lines.push('### Citations')\n  lines.push('')\n  for (const item of report.methodology.citations) lines.push(`- ${item}`)\n  lines.push('')\n  lines.push('## Chart Specs')\n  lines.push('')\n  lines.push(\n    'The report carries JSON chart specs for Pareto cost/quality and paired gain histograms.',\n  )\n  lines.push('')\n  lines.push('```json')\n  lines.push(JSON.stringify({ pareto: report.pareto, gains: report.gains }, null, 2))\n  lines.push('```')\n  if (report.failureClusters) {\n    lines.push('')\n    lines.push('## Failure Clusters')\n    lines.push('')\n    lines.push('| Failure Class | Runs | Scenarios | Tool | Example |')\n    lines.push('|---|---:|---:|---|---|')\n    for (const c of report.failureClusters.clusters.slice(0, 10)) {\n      lines.push(\n        `| ${c.failureClass} | ${c.runCount} | ${c.scenarioIds.length} | ${c.toolName ?? '-'} | ${escapePipes(c.exampleError ?? c.exampleRunId)} |`,\n      )\n    }\n  }\n  return lines.join('\\n')\n}\n\nfunction renderResearchHtml(markdown: string, title: string): string {\n  const body = markdownToHtml(markdown)\n  return [\n    '<!doctype html>',\n    '<html lang=\"en\">',\n    '<head>',\n    '<meta charset=\"utf-8\">',\n    '<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width, initial-scale=1\">',\n    `<title>${escapeHtml(title)}</title>`,\n    '<style>',\n    'body{font-family:Inter,ui-sans-serif,system-ui,-apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,\"Segoe UI\",sans-serif;margin:0;color:#172026;background:#f7f8f8;}',\n    'main{max-width:1080px;margin:0 auto;padding:40px 24px 64px;background:#fff;min-height:100vh;}',\n    'h1{font-size:34px;line-height:1.15;margin:0 0 20px;}h2{margin-top:34px;border-top:1px solid #d9dfdf;padding-top:22px;}h3{margin-top:22px;}',\n    'p,li{line-height:1.55;}table{border-collapse:collapse;width:100%;margin:16px 0;font-size:14px;}th,td{border:1px solid #d9dfdf;padding:8px;text-align:left;}th{background:#eef2f2;}',\n    'code,pre{font-family:ui-monospace,SFMono-Regular,Menlo,monospace;}pre{overflow:auto;background:#111827;color:#f9fafb;padding:16px;border-radius:6px;}',\n    '</style>',\n    '</head>',\n    '<body><main>',\n    body,\n    '</main></body></html>',\n  ].join('\\n')\n}\n\nfunction markdownToHtml(markdown: string): string {\n  const lines = markdown.split('\\n')\n  const html: string[] = []\n  let inList = false\n  let inCode = false\n  let code: string[] = []\n  let table: string[] = []\n\n  const flushList = () => {\n    if (inList) {\n      html.push('</ul>')\n      inList = false\n    }\n  }\n  const flushTable = () => {\n    if (table.length === 0) return\n    html.push(renderMarkdownTable(table))\n    table = []\n  }\n\n  for (const line of lines) {\n    if (line.startsWith('```')) {\n      if (inCode) {\n        html.push(`<pre><code>${escapeHtml(code.join('\\n'))}</code></pre>`)\n        code = []\n        inCode = false\n      } else {\n        flushList()\n        flushTable()\n        inCode = true\n      }\n      continue\n    }\n    if (inCode) {\n      code.push(line)\n      continue\n    }\n    if (line.startsWith('|')) {\n      flushList()\n      table.push(line)\n      continue\n    }\n    flushTable()\n    if (line.startsWith('- ')) {\n      if (!inList) {\n        html.push('<ul>')\n        inList = true\n      }\n      html.push(`<li>${inlineMarkdown(line.slice(2))}</li>`)\n      continue\n    }\n    flushList()\n    if (line.startsWith('# ')) html.push(`<h1>${inlineMarkdown(line.slice(2))}</h1>`)\n    else if (line.startsWith('## ')) html.push(`<h2>${inlineMarkdown(line.slice(3))}</h2>`)\n    else if (line.startsWith('### ')) html.push(`<h3>${inlineMarkdown(line.slice(4))}</h3>`)\n    else if (line.trim() === '') html.push('')\n    else html.push(`<p>${inlineMarkdown(line)}</p>`)\n  }\n  flushList()\n  flushTable()\n  return html.join('\\n')\n}\n\nfunction renderMarkdownTable(lines: string[]): string {\n  const rows = lines\n    .filter((line) => !/^\\|[-:\\s|]+\\|$/.test(line))\n    .map((line) =>\n      line\n        .slice(1, -1)\n        .split('|')\n        .map((cell) => inlineMarkdown(cell.trim())),\n    )\n  if (rows.length === 0) return ''\n  const [head, ...body] = rows\n  const th = head!.map((cell) => `<th>${cell}</th>`).join('')\n  const trs = body\n    .map((row) => `<tr>${row.map((cell) => `<td>${cell}</td>`).join('')}</tr>`)\n    .join('\\n')\n  return `<table><thead><tr>${th}</tr></thead><tbody>${trs}</tbody></table>`\n}\n\nfunction inlineMarkdown(s: string): string {\n  return escapeHtml(s).replace(/\\*\\*([^*]+)\\*\\*/g, '<strong>$1</strong>')\n}\n\nfunction escapeHtml(s: string): string {\n  return s\n    .replace(/&/g, '&amp;')\n    .replace(/</g, '&lt;')\n    .replace(/>/g, '&gt;')\n    .replace(/\"/g, '&quot;')\n}\n\nfunction escapePipes(s: string): string {\n  return s.replace(/\\|/g, '\\\\|')\n}\n\nfunction decisionWeight(decision: ResearchReportDecision): number {\n  if (decision === 'promote') return 5\n  if (decision === 'equivalent') return 4\n  if (decision === 'hold') return 3\n  if (decision === 'needs_more_data') return 2\n  return 1\n}\n\nfunction signed(x: number): string {\n  return `${x >= 0 ? '+' : ''}${fmt(x)}`\n}\n\n// ── tiny helpers ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────\n\nfunction avg(xs: number[]): number {\n  if (xs.length === 0) return Number.NaN\n  return xs.reduce((s, x) => s + x, 0) / xs.length\n}\n\nfunction medianOfSorted(sorted: number[]): number {\n  if (sorted.length === 0) return 0\n  const mid = Math.floor(sorted.length / 2)\n  return sorted.length % 2 === 0 ? (sorted[mid - 1]! + sorted[mid]!) / 2 : sorted[mid]!\n}\n\nfunction fmt(x: number): string {\n  if (!Number.isFinite(x)) return String(x)\n  return x.toFixed(4)\n}\n","/**\n * Always-valid sequential evaluation.\n *\n * `researchReport` assumes a single pre-specified analysis. Real\n * consumers run campaigns weekly / nightly / per-PR; each new run silently\n * inflates the false-discovery rate, because the BH-FDR guarantee is for\n * the *first* look, not the 47th. Without time-uniform inference,\n * launch-decision teams either (a) don't peek, which forfeits the cost\n * advantage of stop-when-decisive, or (b) peek and pretend they didn't,\n * which forfeits scientific validity.\n *\n * This module ships **e-value-based confidence sequences** for paired\n * bounded outcomes. The methodology is the predictable plug-in betting\n * martingale of Waudby-Smith & Ramdas (2024) — provably valid at *any*\n * stopping time. Concretely:\n *\n *   For paired deltas D_1, D_2, … ∈ [-c, c] with the null H_0: E[D] ≤ 0,\n *   a betting fraction λ_i is chosen using only D_{1..i-1} (predictable\n *   plug-in), and the running e-value is\n *\n *     E_t = ∏_{i=1}^{t} (1 + λ_i · D_i)\n *\n *   E_t is a non-negative martingale under H_0 with E[E_t] ≤ 1, so by\n *   Ville's inequality, P(∃ t : E_t ≥ 1/α) ≤ α — we can reject the null\n *   at any time without inflating the type-I error.\n *\n * Combined with `runEvalCampaign`, every consumer running rolling\n * campaigns gains the ability to ship the moment evidence is decisive,\n * stop-early on dead-on-arrival variants, and accumulate evidence across\n * partial runs without spending the FDR budget. No new sweep is wasted.\n *\n * References:\n *   - Howard, S. R., Ramdas, A., McAuliffe, J., Sekhon, J. (2021).\n *     Time-uniform, nonparametric, nonasymptotic confidence sequences.\n *     Annals of Statistics, 49(2), 1055–1080.\n *   - Waudby-Smith, I., Ramdas, A. (2024). Estimating means of bounded\n *     random variables by betting. JRSS B, 86(1), 1–27.\n */\n\nexport type SequentialDecision = 'promote_now' | 'continue' | 'reject_now' | 'equivalent'\n\nexport interface PairedEvalueOptions {\n  /**\n   * Bound on |delta|. Default 1 (matching most score scales). Must satisfy\n   * c > 0; deltas outside [-c, c] are clipped with a warning attached to\n   * the return value.\n   */\n  bound?: number\n  /** Target Type-I error. Default 0.05. */\n  alpha?: number\n  /**\n   * Region of Practical Equivalence on the *mean* paired delta. When\n   * supplied, the verdict can return `'equivalent'` once the running\n   * confidence sequence on the mean is fully contained in [low, high].\n   */\n  rope?: { low: number; high: number }\n  /** Initial bet shrinkage (0 < scale ≤ 1). Default 0.5 — empirically robust. */\n  initialBetShrinkage?: number\n}\n\nexport interface PairedEvalueStep {\n  /** 1-indexed observation count. */\n  t: number\n  delta: number\n  /** Running e-value E_t = ∏ (1 + λ_i · D_i). */\n  evalue: number\n  /** Time-uniform p-value at stopping time t. */\n  pValue: number\n  /** Lower bound of the empirical Bernstein confidence sequence at level 1-α. */\n  csLow: number\n  csHigh: number\n  /** Verdict at this stopping time. */\n  decision: SequentialDecision\n}\n\nexport interface PairedEvalueSequence {\n  steps: PairedEvalueStep[]\n  /** The decision at the final step. */\n  finalDecision: SequentialDecision\n  /** Index (1-based) at which a non-`continue` decision first fired, or null. */\n  decisionFiredAt: number | null\n  /** True if any deltas were clipped to [-bound, bound]. */\n  clipped: boolean\n}\n\n/**\n * Run the paired e-value sequence over an in-order delta stream.\n *\n * Use for *streaming* / interim analyses: pass the deltas you have so\n * far, get the verdict at every prefix length. The decision is\n * monotone-stable in the sense that once `'reject_now'` or `'promote_now'`\n * fires, the verdict at later steps remains decisive (the e-value is a\n * non-negative martingale; once it crosses the threshold, it's crossed).\n */\nexport function pairedEvalueSequence(\n  deltas: number[],\n  opts: PairedEvalueOptions = {},\n): PairedEvalueSequence {\n  const c = opts.bound ?? 1\n  const alpha = opts.alpha ?? 0.05\n  const initialShrink = opts.initialBetShrinkage ?? 0.5\n  const rope = opts.rope ?? null\n  if (c <= 0) throw new Error('pairedEvalueSequence: bound must be > 0')\n  if (alpha <= 0 || alpha >= 1) throw new Error('pairedEvalueSequence: alpha must be in (0,1)')\n  if (rope && !(Number.isFinite(rope.low) && Number.isFinite(rope.high) && rope.low <= rope.high)) {\n    throw new Error('pairedEvalueSequence: rope must satisfy low ≤ high')\n  }\n\n  const steps: PairedEvalueStep[] = []\n  let clipped = false\n  let evalue = 1\n  let decisionFiredAt: number | null = null\n\n  // Running statistics (using only D_{1..i-1} for the bet → predictable plug-in).\n  let sum = 0\n  let sumSq = 0\n  let count = 0\n\n  for (let i = 0; i < deltas.length; i++) {\n    let d = deltas[i]!\n    if (d < -c || d > c) {\n      d = Math.max(-c, Math.min(c, d))\n      clipped = true\n    }\n\n    // Predictable plug-in bet (positive λ tests for E[D] > 0; we run a two-sided\n    // test by tracking the symmetric e-value via |bet|).\n    // λ_i ∝ mean / (variance + bound^2). Shrink early to avoid overbetting.\n    const muHat = count === 0 ? 0 : sum / count\n    const varHat = count === 0 ? c * c : Math.max(1e-12, sumSq / count - muHat * muHat)\n    const t = i + 1\n    const shrink = initialShrink * Math.min(1, count / 32) // anneal toward 1\n    let lambda = (muHat / (varHat + c * c)) * shrink\n    // Clip to ensure 1 + λ·D > 0 for all |D| ≤ c (so the e-value stays non-negative).\n    const lambdaMax = 0.99 / c\n    if (lambda > lambdaMax) lambda = lambdaMax\n    if (lambda < -lambdaMax) lambda = -lambdaMax\n\n    evalue = evalue * (1 + lambda * d)\n    if (!Number.isFinite(evalue) || evalue < 0) evalue = 0\n\n    sum += d\n    sumSq += d * d\n    count += 1\n\n    const pValue = Math.min(1, 1 / Math.max(evalue, 1e-300))\n\n    // Empirical Bernstein confidence sequence on the mean. Howard et al.\n    // (2021), Theorem 4.4 with σ̂² the running sample variance and a\n    // calibration constant tuned for two-sided coverage at level 1 - α.\n    const cs = empiricalBernsteinCs(sum, sumSq, count, c, alpha)\n\n    let decision: SequentialDecision = 'continue'\n    if (rope && cs.low >= rope.low && cs.high <= rope.high) decision = 'equivalent'\n    else if (evalue >= 2 / alpha && muHat > 0) decision = 'promote_now'\n    else if (evalue >= 2 / alpha && muHat < 0) decision = 'reject_now'\n    else if (rope && cs.high < rope.low) decision = 'reject_now'\n\n    if (decision !== 'continue' && decisionFiredAt === null) decisionFiredAt = t\n\n    steps.push({ t, delta: d, evalue, pValue, csLow: cs.low, csHigh: cs.high, decision })\n  }\n\n  const finalDecision = steps.length === 0 ? 'continue' : steps[steps.length - 1]!.decision\n  return { steps, finalDecision, decisionFiredAt, clipped }\n}\n\nexport interface InterimReleaseConfidenceInput {\n  /**\n   * One delta series per candidate (paired deltas vs comparator). Order\n   * within a series is the order the campaigns were run.\n   */\n  deltaSeries: Array<{ candidateId: string; deltas: number[] }>\n  alpha?: number\n  bound?: number\n  rope?: { low: number; high: number }\n}\n\nexport interface InterimReleaseConfidence {\n  candidates: Array<{\n    candidateId: string\n    decision: SequentialDecision\n    decisionFiredAt: number | null\n    finalEvalue: number\n    finalPValue: number\n    pairs: number\n    csLow: number\n    csHigh: number\n  }>\n  /**\n   * Campaign-level recommendation: pick the strongest 'promote_now', else\n   * 'continue' if any candidate is still live, else 'reject_now' if every\n   * candidate is dead, else 'equivalent'.\n   */\n  recommendation: { decision: SequentialDecision; candidateId: string | null }\n}\n\n/**\n * Run interim sequential analyses across many candidates at once,\n * preserving the time-uniform α guarantee for each candidate's series and\n * synthesising a campaign-level recommendation. Designed to be called on\n * every campaign tick — the recommendation is anytime-valid.\n */\nexport function evaluateInterimReleaseConfidence(\n  input: InterimReleaseConfidenceInput,\n): InterimReleaseConfidence {\n  const candidates = input.deltaSeries.map((s) => {\n    const seq = pairedEvalueSequence(s.deltas, {\n      alpha: input.alpha,\n      bound: input.bound,\n      rope: input.rope,\n    })\n    const last = seq.steps[seq.steps.length - 1]\n    return {\n      candidateId: s.candidateId,\n      decision: seq.finalDecision,\n      decisionFiredAt: seq.decisionFiredAt,\n      finalEvalue: last?.evalue ?? 1,\n      finalPValue: last?.pValue ?? 1,\n      pairs: seq.steps.length,\n      csLow: last?.csLow ?? Number.NEGATIVE_INFINITY,\n      csHigh: last?.csHigh ?? Number.POSITIVE_INFINITY,\n    }\n  })\n\n  const promote = candidates.find((c) => c.decision === 'promote_now')\n  if (promote)\n    return {\n      candidates,\n      recommendation: { decision: 'promote_now', candidateId: promote.candidateId },\n    }\n  const live = candidates.find((c) => c.decision === 'continue')\n  if (live) return { candidates, recommendation: { decision: 'continue', candidateId: null } }\n  const equiv = candidates.find((c) => c.decision === 'equivalent')\n  if (equiv)\n    return {\n      candidates,\n      recommendation: { decision: 'equivalent', candidateId: equiv.candidateId },\n    }\n  return { candidates, recommendation: { decision: 'reject_now', candidateId: null } }\n}\n\n// ── Internals ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────\n\n/**\n * Empirical Bernstein confidence sequence on the mean of bounded variables.\n * Adapted from Howard et al. (2021) §4.4. Provides a time-uniform CI on\n * the running mean; valid at every stopping time.\n */\nfunction empiricalBernsteinCs(\n  sum: number,\n  sumSq: number,\n  n: number,\n  bound: number,\n  alpha: number,\n): { low: number; high: number } {\n  if (n === 0) return { low: -bound, high: bound }\n  const mean = sum / n\n  const variance = Math.max(0, sumSq / n - mean * mean)\n  // Iterated-log calibration constant. The 1.7 exponent matches the\n  // recommended choice in Howard et al. for two-sided coverage at level\n  // 1 - α with mild log-corrections; tightening further requires a\n  // tuned mixture and is out of scope.\n  const psi = Math.log(2 / alpha) + 1.7 * Math.log(Math.log(Math.max(Math.E, n)) + 1)\n  const radius = Math.sqrt((2 * variance * psi) / n) + (3 * bound * psi) / n\n  return { low: mean - radius, high: mean + radius 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package/dist/chunk-OYI6RZJK.js.map

@@ -1 +0,0 @@
-{"version":3,"sources":["../src/hosted/types.ts","../src/hosted/client.ts"],"sourcesContent":["/**\n * # Hosted-tier wire format — the schema that EVERY orchestrator (ours,\n * a partner's self-hosted one, a future open implementation) must accept.\n *\n * **Stability:** every type in this file is committed under semver. New\n * minors only ADD optional fields. Breaking changes mean a major bump\n * (`HostedWireVersion` literal increment).\n *\n * The wire format is two event streams in one transport:\n *\n *   1. **Eval-run events** (`POST /v1/ingest/eval-runs`). Posted when a\n *      campaign / improvement-loop completes (or per-generation if\n *      streaming). Carries the structured result + per-cell scores +\n *      surface diffs the orchestrator stores for the dashboard.\n *\n *   2. **Trace spans** (`POST /v1/ingest/traces`). Standard OTLP-shaped\n *      spans with a few additional attributes so the orchestrator can\n *      pivot from eval-run → underlying execution. Compatible with any\n *      OTel collector.\n *\n * Both endpoints are authenticated with a bearer token + a tenant id\n * header. Tenants isolate everything downstream of ingest; no tenant\n * ever sees another tenant's data.\n */\n\nimport type { GateDecision, MutableSurface } from '../campaign/types'\n\nexport const HOSTED_WIRE_VERSION = '2026-05-26.v1' as const\nexport type HostedWireVersion = typeof HOSTED_WIRE_VERSION\n\n// ── Transport headers ───────────────────────────────────────────────\n\n/** Every ingest request carries these. */\nexport interface HostedIngestHeaders {\n  /** Bearer token. The orchestrator validates against the tenant key. */\n  authorization: `Bearer ${string}`\n  /** Stable tenant id (the orchestrator-side primary key for the tenant). */\n  'x-tangle-tenant-id': string\n  /** Wire-version pin so the server can reject incompatible payloads. */\n  'x-tangle-wire-version': HostedWireVersion\n  /** Optional idempotency key for retry-safe ingest. */\n  'idempotency-key'?: string\n}\n\n// ── Eval-run event ──────────────────────────────────────────────────\n\n/** Lifecycle stages of an eval-run as the substrate reports them. */\nexport type EvalRunStatus =\n  | 'started'\n  | 'baseline-complete'\n  | 'generation-complete'\n  | 'gate-decided'\n  | 'finished'\n  | 'errored'\n\nexport interface EvalRunCellScore {\n  /** Stable scenario id from the consumer's scenario set. */\n  scenarioId: string\n  /** Repetition index when reps > 1; 0 for the default. */\n  rep: number\n  /** Composite score across all judges + dimensions for this cell. */\n  compositeMean: number\n  /** Per-judge → per-dimension scores; null where the judge did not run. */\n  dimensions: Record<string, Record<string, number>>\n  /** Per-cell error message if the dispatch threw. Null on success. */\n  errorMessage?: string\n}\n\nexport interface EvalRunGenerationSnapshot {\n  /** Generation index. 0 is baseline. */\n  index: number\n  /** Candidate surface fingerprint (stable hash) — pivot key into the\n   *  trace stream to fetch the underlying execution. */\n  surfaceHash: string\n  /** The candidate surface itself. May be omitted to avoid PII when the\n   *  consumer prefers not to ship verbatim prompts. */\n  surface?: MutableSurface\n  /** Per-cell scores for this generation. */\n  cells: EvalRunCellScore[]\n  /** Aggregate composite mean across all cells in this generation. */\n  compositeMean: number\n  /** Total $ spent across this generation. */\n  costUsd: number\n  /** Wall-clock duration of this generation. */\n  durationMs: number\n}\n\n/**\n * The top-level eval-run event. One ingest call per logical eval-run;\n * generations stream in incrementally via repeated calls with the same\n * `runId`. The orchestrator deduplicates by `(runId, generation.index)`.\n */\nexport interface EvalRunEvent {\n  /** Stable run id (the substrate's `runId`). UUID or substrate-generated. */\n  runId: string\n  /** Where this run was happening — derived from `RunCampaignOptions.runDir`. */\n  runDir: string\n  /** ISO-8601 timestamp the substrate recorded the event. */\n  timestamp: string\n  /** Lifecycle stage this event represents. */\n  status: EvalRunStatus\n  /** Free-form consumer tags (env, branch, model id, etc.). Searchable. */\n  labels: Record<string, string>\n  /** Baseline campaign snapshot. Present when status >= baseline-complete. */\n  baseline?: EvalRunGenerationSnapshot\n  /** Per-generation snapshots. Streams in; orchestrator appends. */\n  generations: EvalRunGenerationSnapshot[]\n  /** Final gate decision. Present when status >= gate-decided. */\n  gateDecision?: GateDecision\n  /** Held-out lift = winner-on-holdout - baseline-on-holdout. */\n  holdoutLift?: number\n  /** Total $ spent across baseline + every generation. */\n  totalCostUsd: number\n  /** Total wall-clock duration. */\n  totalDurationMs: number\n  /** Error message if status === 'errored'. */\n  errorMessage?: string\n}\n\n// ── Trace span event ────────────────────────────────────────────────\n\n/**\n * OTel-shape span with a few additional attributes for eval-run pivoting.\n * Compatible with any OTLP collector — `name`, `traceId`, `spanId`,\n * `startTimeUnixNano`, `endTimeUnixNano`, `attributes` are stock OTel.\n */\nexport interface TraceSpanEvent {\n  traceId: string\n  spanId: string\n  parentSpanId?: string\n  name: string\n  startTimeUnixNano: number\n  endTimeUnixNano: number\n  attributes: Record<string, string | number | boolean>\n  events?: Array<{\n    timeUnixNano: number\n    name: string\n    attributes?: Record<string, string | number | boolean>\n  }>\n  status?: { code: 'OK' | 'ERROR' | 'UNSET'; message?: string }\n  /** Pivot back into the eval-run stream. */\n  'tangle.runId'?: string\n  /** Pivot to the specific generation. */\n  'tangle.generation'?: number\n  /** Pivot to the specific cell. */\n  'tangle.cellId'?: string\n  /** Pivot to the specific scenario. */\n  'tangle.scenarioId'?: string\n}\n\n// ── Ingest request bodies ───────────────────────────────────────────\n\nexport interface IngestEvalRunsRequest {\n  wireVersion: HostedWireVersion\n  events: EvalRunEvent[]\n}\n\nexport interface IngestTracesRequest {\n  wireVersion: HostedWireVersion\n  spans: TraceSpanEvent[]\n}\n\nexport interface IngestResponse {\n  /** Accepted events / spans count. */\n  accepted: number\n  /** Rejected events with reasons (validation failures, dup idempotency key, etc.). */\n  rejected: Array<{ index: number; reason: string }>\n}\n","/**\n * # Hosted-tier ingest client.\n *\n * Ships eval-run events + trace spans to any orchestrator (ours, a\n * partner's self-hosted one, or a future open implementation) that\n * speaks the wire format in `./types.ts`.\n *\n * Three modes:\n *   - **Ours:** point at `https://orchestrator.tangle.tools/v1`. We\n *     handle ingest + storage + dashboard.\n *   - **Self-hosted:** point at whatever URL runs the reference receiver\n *     from `examples/hosted-ingest-server/`.\n *   - **Off (default):** when `hostedTenant` is unset, nothing is sent.\n *     Everything stays local.\n */\n\nimport {\n  type EvalRunEvent,\n  HOSTED_WIRE_VERSION,\n  type HostedWireVersion,\n  type IngestEvalRunsRequest,\n  type IngestResponse,\n  type IngestTracesRequest,\n  type TraceSpanEvent,\n} from './types'\n\nexport interface HostedTenant {\n  /** Orchestrator endpoint base URL (no trailing slash). Required. */\n  endpoint: string\n  /** Bearer token issued by the orchestrator. Required. */\n  apiKey: string\n  /** Tenant id — the orchestrator's primary key for this consumer. Required. */\n  tenantId: string\n  /** Optional `fetch` override (auth wrappers, custom agent, test mocks). */\n  fetchImpl?: typeof fetch\n  /** Per-call timeout in ms. Default 30s. */\n  timeoutMs?: number\n  /** Retries on 5xx / network errors. Default 2. */\n  retries?: number\n}\n\nexport interface HostedClient {\n  ingestEvalRun(event: EvalRunEvent, idempotencyKey?: string): Promise<IngestResponse>\n  ingestEvalRuns(events: EvalRunEvent[], idempotencyKey?: string): Promise<IngestResponse>\n  ingestTraces(spans: TraceSpanEvent[], idempotencyKey?: string): Promise<IngestResponse>\n  readonly tenant: HostedTenant\n  readonly wireVersion: HostedWireVersion\n}\n\ninterface RequestOptions {\n  idempotencyKey?: string\n  signal?: AbortSignal\n}\n\nfunction sleep(ms: number): Promise<void> {\n  return new Promise((resolve) => {\n    const t = setTimeout(resolve, ms)\n    if (typeof (t as { unref?: () => void }).unref === 'function')\n      (t as { unref: () => void }).unref()\n  })\n}\n\nasync function post<TReq, TRes>(\n  tenant: HostedTenant,\n  path: string,\n  body: TReq,\n  opts: RequestOptions = {},\n): Promise<TRes> {\n  const timeoutMs = tenant.timeoutMs ?? 30_000\n  const maxRetries = tenant.retries ?? 2\n  const f: typeof fetch = tenant.fetchImpl ?? ((...args) => fetch(...args))\n  const url = `${tenant.endpoint.replace(/\\/$/, '')}${path}`\n\n  let lastError: unknown\n  for (let attempt = 0; attempt <= maxRetries; attempt++) {\n    const ourTimeout = AbortSignal.timeout(timeoutMs)\n    const combinedSignal = opts.signal ? AbortSignal.any([opts.signal, ourTimeout]) : ourTimeout\n    try {\n      const headers: Record<string, string> = {\n        'content-type': 'application/json',\n        authorization: `Bearer ${tenant.apiKey}`,\n        'x-tangle-tenant-id': tenant.tenantId,\n        'x-tangle-wire-version': HOSTED_WIRE_VERSION,\n      }\n      if (opts.idempotencyKey) headers['idempotency-key'] = opts.idempotencyKey\n\n      const res = await f(url, {\n        method: 'POST',\n        headers,\n        body: JSON.stringify(body),\n        signal: combinedSignal,\n      })\n      if (!res.ok) {\n        const retryable = res.status >= 500 || res.status === 408 || res.status === 429\n        if (!retryable || attempt === maxRetries) {\n          const text = await res.text().catch(() => '')\n          throw new Error(`hosted ingest ${url} failed (${res.status}): ${text.slice(0, 500)}`)\n        }\n        await sleep(2 ** attempt * 200 + Math.random() * 200)\n        continue\n      }\n      return (await res.json()) as TRes\n    } catch (err) {\n      if (opts.signal?.aborted) throw err\n      lastError = err\n      if (attempt === maxRetries) throw err\n      await sleep(2 ** attempt * 200 + Math.random() * 200)\n    }\n  }\n  throw lastError ?? new Error('hosted ingest exhausted retries')\n}\n\nexport function createHostedClient(tenant: HostedTenant): HostedClient {\n  return {\n    tenant,\n    wireVersion: HOSTED_WIRE_VERSION,\n\n    async ingestEvalRun(event, idempotencyKey) {\n      return this.ingestEvalRuns([event], idempotencyKey)\n    },\n\n    async ingestEvalRuns(events, idempotencyKey) {\n      const body: IngestEvalRunsRequest = { wireVersion: HOSTED_WIRE_VERSION, events }\n      return post<IngestEvalRunsRequest, IngestResponse>(tenant, '/v1/ingest/eval-runs', body, {\n        idempotencyKey,\n      })\n    },\n\n    async ingestTraces(spans, idempotencyKey) {\n      const body: IngestTracesRequest = { wireVersion: HOSTED_WIRE_VERSION, spans }\n      return post<IngestTracesRequest, IngestResponse>(tenant, '/v1/ingest/traces', body, {\n        idempotencyKey,\n      })\n    },\n  }\n}\n"],"mappings":";AA2BO,IAAM,sBAAsB;;;AC2BnC,SAAS,MAAM,IAA2B;AACxC,SAAO,IAAI,QAAQ,CAAC,YAAY;AAC9B,UAAM,IAAI,WAAW,SAAS,EAAE;AAChC,QAAI,OAAQ,EAA6B,UAAU;AACjD,MAAC,EAA4B,MAAM;AAAA,EACvC,CAAC;AACH;AAEA,eAAe,KACb,QACA,MACA,MACA,OAAuB,CAAC,GACT;AACf,QAAM,YAAY,OAAO,aAAa;AACtC,QAAM,aAAa,OAAO,WAAW;AACrC,QAAM,IAAkB,OAAO,cAAc,IAAI,SAAS,MAAM,GAAG,IAAI;AACvE,QAAM,MAAM,GAAG,OAAO,SAAS,QAAQ,OAAO,EAAE,CAAC,GAAG,IAAI;AAExD,MAAI;AACJ,WAAS,UAAU,GAAG,WAAW,YAAY,WAAW;AACtD,UAAM,aAAa,YAAY,QAAQ,SAAS;AAChD,UAAM,iBAAiB,KAAK,SAAS,YAAY,IAAI,CAAC,KAAK,QAAQ,UAAU,CAAC,IAAI;AAClF,QAAI;AACF,YAAM,UAAkC;AAAA,QACtC,gBAAgB;AAAA,QAChB,eAAe,UAAU,OAAO,MAAM;AAAA,QACtC,sBAAsB,OAAO;AAAA,QAC7B,yBAAyB;AAAA,MAC3B;AACA,UAAI,KAAK,eAAgB,SAAQ,iBAAiB,IAAI,KAAK;AAE3D,YAAM,MAAM,MAAM,EAAE,KAAK;AAAA,QACvB,QAAQ;AAAA,QACR;AAAA,QACA,MAAM,KAAK,UAAU,IAAI;AAAA,QACzB,QAAQ;AAAA,MACV,CAAC;AACD,UAAI,CAAC,IAAI,IAAI;AACX,cAAM,YAAY,IAAI,UAAU,OAAO,IAAI,WAAW,OAAO,IAAI,WAAW;AAC5E,YAAI,CAAC,aAAa,YAAY,YAAY;AACxC,gBAAM,OAAO,MAAM,IAAI,KAAK,EAAE,MAAM,MAAM,EAAE;AAC5C,gBAAM,IAAI,MAAM,iBAAiB,GAAG,YAAY,IAAI,MAAM,MAAM,KAAK,MAAM,GAAG,GAAG,CAAC,EAAE;AAAA,QACtF;AACA,cAAM,MAAM,KAAK,UAAU,MAAM,KAAK,OAAO,IAAI,GAAG;AACpD;AAAA,MACF;AACA,aAAQ,MAAM,IAAI,KAAK;AAAA,IACzB,SAAS,KAAK;AACZ,UAAI,KAAK,QAAQ,QAAS,OAAM;AAChC,kBAAY;AACZ,UAAI,YAAY,WAAY,OAAM;AAClC,YAAM,MAAM,KAAK,UAAU,MAAM,KAAK,OAAO,IAAI,GAAG;AAAA,IACtD;AAAA,EACF;AACA,QAAM,aAAa,IAAI,MAAM,iCAAiC;AAChE;AAEO,SAAS,mBAAmB,QAAoC;AACrE,SAAO;AAAA,IACL;AAAA,IACA,aAAa;AAAA,IAEb,MAAM,cAAc,OAAO,gBAAgB;AACzC,aAAO,KAAK,eAAe,CAAC,KAAK,GAAG,cAAc;AAAA,IACpD;AAAA,IAEA,MAAM,eAAe,QAAQ,gBAAgB;AAC3C,YAAM,OAA8B,EAAE,aAAa,qBAAqB,OAAO;AAC/E,aAAO,KAA4C,QAAQ,wBAAwB,MAAM;AAAA,QACvF;AAAA,MACF,CAAC;AAAA,IACH;AAAA,IAEA,MAAM,aAAa,OAAO,gBAAgB;AACxC,YAAM,OAA4B,EAAE,aAAa,qBAAqB,MAAM;AAC5E,aAAO,KAA0C,QAAQ,qBAAqB,MAAM;AAAA,QAClF;AAAA,MACF,CAAC;AAAA,IACH;AAAA,EACF;AACF;","names":[]}