@tangle-network/agent-eval 0.40.5 → 0.42.0

This diff represents the content of publicly available package versions that have been released to one of the supported registries. The information contained in this diff is provided for informational purposes only and reflects changes between package versions as they appear in their respective public registries.
Files changed (52) hide show
  1. package/dist/campaign/index.d.ts +48 -355
  2. package/dist/campaign/index.js +106 -6
  3. package/dist/campaign/index.js.map +1 -1
  4. package/dist/{chunk-AU2JLNSZ.js → chunk-H4TOS272.js} +1 -65
  5. package/dist/chunk-H4TOS272.js.map +1 -0
  6. package/dist/{chunk-NKLGKF2Q.js → chunk-KQ26DYTQ.js} +2 -18
  7. package/dist/chunk-KQ26DYTQ.js.map +1 -0
  8. package/dist/{chunk-EGIPWXHL.js → chunk-MNL6LXGQ.js} +98 -2
  9. package/dist/chunk-MNL6LXGQ.js.map +1 -0
  10. package/dist/{chunk-5U2DOJU4.js → chunk-N4SBKEPJ.js} +199 -2
  11. package/dist/chunk-N4SBKEPJ.js.map +1 -0
  12. package/dist/{chunk-LCIDRYGP.js → chunk-PD3MH6WU.js} +8 -8
  13. package/dist/{control-CmLJk3IG.d.ts → control-ojEWkMfJ.d.ts} +1 -1
  14. package/dist/control.d.ts +2 -2
  15. package/dist/{feedback-trajectory-Dvy-bt7x.d.ts → feedback-trajectory-BSxqEpu7.d.ts} +1 -1
  16. package/dist/index.d.ts +227 -687
  17. package/dist/index.js +753 -1237
  18. package/dist/index.js.map +1 -1
  19. package/dist/integrity-CTDhR1Sg.d.ts +81 -0
  20. package/dist/llm-client-BXVRUZyX.d.ts +234 -0
  21. package/dist/openapi.json +1 -1
  22. package/dist/pipelines/index.js +67 -3
  23. package/dist/pipelines/index.js.map +1 -1
  24. package/dist/{integrity-DYR5gWlb.d.ts → raw-provider-sink-C46HDghv.d.ts} +1 -80
  25. package/dist/{release-report-Di84bXD7.d.ts → release-report-BtpgWRI0.d.ts} +21 -3
  26. package/dist/reporting.d.ts +2 -3
  27. package/dist/reporting.js +4 -8
  28. package/dist/{researcher-DeZ_EArp.d.ts → researcher-CoJMs2Iz.d.ts} +116 -205
  29. package/dist/rl.d.ts +103 -221
  30. package/dist/rl.js +44 -199
  31. package/dist/rl.js.map +1 -1
  32. package/dist/sequential-DdV5ShjT.d.ts +561 -0
  33. package/dist/traces.d.ts +3 -2
  34. package/dist/traces.js +5 -5
  35. package/dist/types-BLbRTxoc.d.ts +367 -0
  36. package/dist/wire/index.d.ts +1 -1
  37. package/package.json +1 -6
  38. package/dist/chunk-5U2DOJU4.js.map +0 -1
  39. package/dist/chunk-AU2JLNSZ.js.map +0 -1
  40. package/dist/chunk-DMW5VENN.js +0 -1412
  41. package/dist/chunk-DMW5VENN.js.map +0 -1
  42. package/dist/chunk-EGIPWXHL.js.map +0 -1
  43. package/dist/chunk-MAZ26DC7.js +0 -99
  44. package/dist/chunk-MAZ26DC7.js.map +0 -1
  45. package/dist/chunk-NKLGKF2Q.js.map +0 -1
  46. package/dist/multi-layer-verifier-BNi4-8lR.d.ts +0 -141
  47. package/dist/optimization.d.ts +0 -11
  48. package/dist/optimization.js +0 -71
  49. package/dist/optimization.js.map +0 -1
  50. package/dist/sequential-5iSVfzl2.d.ts +0 -139
  51. package/dist/summary-report-DuZXOk7K.d.ts +0 -917
  52. /package/dist/{chunk-LCIDRYGP.js.map → chunk-PD3MH6WU.js.map} +0 -0
@@ -0,0 +1,561 @@
1
+ import { R as RunRecord } from './run-record-BGY6bHRh.js';
2
+ import { F as FailureClusterReport } from './failure-cluster-Cw65_5FY.js';
3
+
4
+ /**
5
+ * HeldOutGate — first-class held-out paired-delta promotion gate.
6
+ *
7
+ * Encodes the "honesty override" pattern that lived inline in
8
+ * `~/webb/redteam/scripts/agent-eval-autoresearch.ts:138–171`.
9
+ * The optimizer's best-guess is one thing; what we should actually
10
+ * ship is another. The gate is the line between them.
11
+ *
12
+ * A candidate is promoted iff ALL three pass:
13
+ *
14
+ * 1. **Productive runs**: the candidate has at least
15
+ * `minProductiveRuns` paired observations on items where BOTH
16
+ * candidate and baseline produced a real (non-silent) score.
17
+ * 2. **Paired delta**: the lower bound of the bootstrap CI on the
18
+ * median per-item delta (candidate − baseline) on the HOLDOUT
19
+ * split is strictly greater than `pairedDeltaThreshold`.
20
+ * 3. **Overfit gap**: the candidate's gap between search-split
21
+ * score and holdout-split score is no worse (more positive)
22
+ * than the baseline's gap by more than `overfitGapThreshold`.
23
+ * "Better on search, worse on holdout" is the canonical
24
+ * overfit pattern; this catches it.
25
+ *
26
+ * The decision carries a machine-readable `rejectionCode` plus an
27
+ * `evidence` block with every number the gate looked at, so the
28
+ * downstream researcher / paper / dashboard can re-derive the
29
+ * verdict without re-running.
30
+ *
31
+ * See also:
32
+ * - `src/statistics.ts` for `pairedBootstrap` + `wilcoxonSignedRank`
33
+ * - `src/run-record.ts` for the input row schema
34
+ * - `src/reference-replay.ts` for the older, reference-replay-
35
+ * specific promotion path (still useful for replay-style evals).
36
+ */
37
+
38
+ type HeldOutGateRejectionCode = 'few_runs' | 'negative_delta' | 'overfit_gap';
39
+ interface HeldOutGateConfig {
40
+ /** Minimum number of paired (candidate, baseline) holdout observations
41
+ * required before the gate will even consider promoting. Default 3. */
42
+ minProductiveRuns?: number;
43
+ /** The bootstrap-CI lower bound on the median paired holdout delta
44
+ * must exceed this to promote. Default 0. */
45
+ pairedDeltaThreshold?: number;
46
+ /** Maximum allowed worsening of (search − holdout) gap relative to
47
+ * baseline. Default 0.15 (i.e. candidate may overfit by up to 15
48
+ * absolute score points more than baseline before rejection). */
49
+ overfitGapThreshold?: number;
50
+ /** Stable label of the baseline candidate. Required — paper-grade
51
+ * evaluation never compares two unlabelled candidates. */
52
+ baselineKey: string;
53
+ /** Confidence level for the bootstrap CI. Default 0.95. */
54
+ confidence?: number;
55
+ /** Bootstrap resamples. Default 2000. */
56
+ bootstrapResamples?: number;
57
+ /** Optional deterministic seed for the bootstrap. Default undefined
58
+ * (Math.random). */
59
+ seed?: number;
60
+ }
61
+ interface GateEvidence {
62
+ /** Number of paired (candidate, baseline) holdout observations used. */
63
+ productiveRuns: number;
64
+ /** Median of (candidate − baseline) paired holdout deltas. */
65
+ medianPairedDelta: number;
66
+ /** Bootstrap CI on the median paired holdout delta. */
67
+ pairedCI: {
68
+ low: number;
69
+ high: number;
70
+ };
71
+ /** Wilcoxon signed-rank p-value on the paired holdout deltas. */
72
+ pairedPValue: number;
73
+ /** Mean candidate score on the search split (NaN if none). */
74
+ searchScore: number;
75
+ /** Mean candidate score on the holdout split (NaN if none). */
76
+ holdoutScore: number;
77
+ /** Candidate (search − holdout) gap. */
78
+ overfitGap: number;
79
+ /** Baseline (search − holdout) gap. */
80
+ baselineOverfitGap: number;
81
+ }
82
+ interface GateDecision {
83
+ /** Final promote/no-promote verdict. */
84
+ promote: boolean;
85
+ /** The candidate that was evaluated. */
86
+ candidateId: string;
87
+ /** The baseline it was compared against. */
88
+ baselineId: string;
89
+ /** Every number the gate looked at, for audit + paper export. */
90
+ evidence: GateEvidence;
91
+ /** Human-readable reason. */
92
+ reason: string;
93
+ /** Machine-readable rejection code, or null on promote. */
94
+ rejectionCode: HeldOutGateRejectionCode | null;
95
+ }
96
+ /**
97
+ * Held-out paired-delta promotion gate. Construct once with config,
98
+ * call `evaluate(candidateRuns, baselineRuns)` per (candidate,
99
+ * baseline) pair. Stateless across calls.
100
+ */
101
+ declare class HeldOutGate {
102
+ private readonly minProductiveRuns;
103
+ private readonly pairedDeltaThreshold;
104
+ private readonly overfitGapThreshold;
105
+ private readonly baselineKey;
106
+ private readonly confidence;
107
+ private readonly resamples;
108
+ private readonly seed?;
109
+ constructor(config: HeldOutGateConfig);
110
+ /** Decide whether `candidate` should replace `baseline`. Pairing
111
+ * is by (experimentId, seed) — identical experiment + seed pairs
112
+ * the candidate run with the matching baseline run. Pairs without
113
+ * a holdout score on both sides are dropped. */
114
+ evaluate(candidate: RunRecord[], baseline: RunRecord[]): GateDecision;
115
+ }
116
+
117
+ /**
118
+ * Reporting helpers — production summaries and paper-quality figures — sit alongside `reporter.ts` rather
119
+ * than replacing it.
120
+ *
121
+ * Three artefacts:
122
+ *
123
+ * - `summaryTable` Markdown table of per-candidate means,
124
+ * 95% bootstrap CIs, BH-adjusted Wilcoxon
125
+ * p-values, and Cohen's d versus a
126
+ * comparator candidate.
127
+ * - `paretoChart` Abstract spec for a cost vs quality
128
+ * scatter, with gate decisions overlaid.
129
+ * Returns numbers + labels — caller
130
+ * chooses the plotting library.
131
+ * - `gainHistogram`
132
+ * Per-item paired holdout deltas as a
133
+ * histogram spec (bins + counts + median +
134
+ * CI). Same "data, not images" contract.
135
+ *
136
+ * The figure types are PlotSpecs — JSON-friendly, library-agnostic.
137
+ * They aren't React components and they aren't PNGs; they are
138
+ * what you'd hand to vega-lite, plotly, matplotlib, or your own
139
+ * Canvas renderer to draw the actual figure.
140
+ */
141
+
142
+ interface SummaryTableOptions {
143
+ /** Comparator candidate id. Wilcoxon + Cohen's d are computed
144
+ * versus this candidate. Required for paired stats columns. */
145
+ comparator?: string;
146
+ /** Which split to read scores from. Default 'holdout'. */
147
+ split?: 'search' | 'holdout';
148
+ /** Confidence level for the bootstrap CI on the mean. Default 0.95. */
149
+ confidence?: number;
150
+ /** FDR for BH adjustment of the comparison p-values. Default 0.05. */
151
+ fdr?: number;
152
+ }
153
+ interface SummaryTableRow {
154
+ candidateId: string;
155
+ n: number;
156
+ mean: number;
157
+ ciLow: number;
158
+ ciHigh: number;
159
+ /** BH-adjusted q-value vs comparator. NaN if no comparator. */
160
+ qValue: number;
161
+ /** Cohen's d vs comparator. NaN if no comparator. */
162
+ cohensD: number;
163
+ }
164
+ interface SummaryTable {
165
+ rows: SummaryTableRow[];
166
+ comparator: string | null;
167
+ split: 'search' | 'holdout';
168
+ /** Pre-rendered markdown — drop into a paper or PR. */
169
+ markdown: string;
170
+ }
171
+ /**
172
+ * Table 1 helper. Buckets runs by `candidateId`, computes mean +
173
+ * bootstrap CI on the chosen split, and (when a comparator is given)
174
+ * BH-adjusted Wilcoxon p + Cohen's d versus that comparator.
175
+ */
176
+ declare function summaryTable(runs: RunRecord[], opts?: SummaryTableOptions): SummaryTable;
177
+ interface ParetoPoint {
178
+ candidateId: string;
179
+ /** Mean USD cost per run on the chosen split. */
180
+ cost: number;
181
+ /** Mean score on the chosen split. */
182
+ quality: number;
183
+ /** Number of runs that informed this point. */
184
+ n: number;
185
+ /** Whether this candidate is on the Pareto frontier — high
186
+ * quality, low cost, no dominator. */
187
+ onFrontier: boolean;
188
+ /** Optional gate verdict for this candidate, if a `GateDecision`
189
+ * for it was passed in. */
190
+ gate?: 'promote' | 'reject_few_runs' | 'reject_negative_delta' | 'reject_overfit_gap' | null;
191
+ }
192
+ interface ParetoFigureSpec {
193
+ kind: 'pareto-cost-quality';
194
+ split: 'search' | 'holdout';
195
+ points: ParetoPoint[];
196
+ axes: {
197
+ x: 'costUsd';
198
+ y: 'score';
199
+ };
200
+ }
201
+ /**
202
+ * Cost vs quality scatter spec. `gateDecisions` is keyed by
203
+ * candidate id; if present, every point picks up the gate verdict
204
+ * for overlay.
205
+ */
206
+ declare function paretoChart(runs: RunRecord[], opts?: {
207
+ split?: 'search' | 'holdout';
208
+ gateDecisions?: Record<string, GateDecision>;
209
+ }): ParetoFigureSpec;
210
+ interface GainDistributionBin {
211
+ /** Inclusive lower edge. */
212
+ lo: number;
213
+ /** Exclusive upper edge (or inclusive if it's the last bin). */
214
+ hi: number;
215
+ /** Number of pairs whose delta lands in this bin. */
216
+ count: number;
217
+ }
218
+ interface GainDistributionFigureSpec {
219
+ kind: 'gain-distribution';
220
+ candidateId: string;
221
+ comparator: string;
222
+ split: 'search' | 'holdout';
223
+ /** Number of pairs used. */
224
+ n: number;
225
+ bins: GainDistributionBin[];
226
+ median: number;
227
+ ci: {
228
+ low: number;
229
+ high: number;
230
+ };
231
+ }
232
+ interface GainDistributionOptions {
233
+ /** Number of histogram bins. Default 11 (so the centre is exact at 0). */
234
+ bins?: number;
235
+ /** Which split to use. Default 'holdout'. */
236
+ split?: 'search' | 'holdout';
237
+ /** Confidence level for the CI. Default 0.95. */
238
+ confidence?: number;
239
+ /** Bootstrap resamples. Default 2000. */
240
+ resamples?: number;
241
+ /** Deterministic seed. */
242
+ seed?: number;
243
+ }
244
+ /**
245
+ * Held-out improvement distribution: per-pair delta (candidate −
246
+ * comparator), histogrammed. Includes the bootstrap CI on the median
247
+ * delta — same primitive the promotion gate uses.
248
+ */
249
+ declare function gainHistogram(runs: RunRecord[], candidateId: string, comparator: string, opts?: GainDistributionOptions): GainDistributionFigureSpec;
250
+ type ResearchReportDecision = 'promote' | 'hold' | 'reject' | 'equivalent' | 'needs_more_data';
251
+ /**
252
+ * Hard floor below which a paired comparison is treated as uninformative
253
+ * regardless of `minPairs`. Mirrors the lower limit on Wilcoxon signed-rank
254
+ * exact tables; below this the test has no power to separate effect sizes.
255
+ */
256
+ declare const RESEARCH_REPORT_HARD_PAIR_FLOOR = 6;
257
+ interface ResearchReportOptions {
258
+ /** Human-readable report title. */
259
+ title?: string;
260
+ /** Comparator candidate id. Required for statistical decision guidance. */
261
+ comparator?: string;
262
+ /** Which split to use for the primary decision. Default 'holdout'. */
263
+ split?: 'search' | 'holdout';
264
+ /** Confidence level used by lower-level report helpers. Default 0.95. */
265
+ confidence?: number;
266
+ /** FDR threshold for q-values. Default 0.05. */
267
+ fdr?: number;
268
+ /**
269
+ * Soft floor on paired observations before issuing a directional
270
+ * promote / reject. Below this we report `needs_more_data` and surface the
271
+ * minimum detectable effect at the current N. Default 20 — chosen so the
272
+ * Wilcoxon signed-rank approximation is reasonable and so the paired
273
+ * bootstrap CI has non-degenerate coverage. Hard floor is enforced at
274
+ * `RESEARCH_REPORT_HARD_PAIR_FLOOR` (6) regardless of this value.
275
+ */
276
+ minPairs?: number;
277
+ /**
278
+ * Region of Practical Equivalence on the paired delta. When a candidate's
279
+ * paired-delta CI is fully contained in `[low, high]`, the decision is
280
+ * `equivalent` rather than `hold`. Sourced from the domain owner — there is
281
+ * no statistically-defensible default.
282
+ */
283
+ rope?: {
284
+ low: number;
285
+ high: number;
286
+ };
287
+ /**
288
+ * Power for the minimum detectable effect (MDE) reported on each candidate.
289
+ * Default 0.8.
290
+ */
291
+ mdePower?: number;
292
+ /**
293
+ * Two-sided alpha for the MDE. Default matches `fdr` so the reported MDE
294
+ * lines up with the test the report actually runs.
295
+ */
296
+ mdeAlpha?: number;
297
+ /** Optional held-out gate decisions keyed by candidate id. */
298
+ gateDecisions?: Record<string, GateDecision>;
299
+ /** Optional failure clusters from failureClusterView. */
300
+ failureClusters?: FailureClusterReport;
301
+ /** Build gain histograms for these candidates. Defaults to all non-comparator candidates. */
302
+ candidateIds?: string[];
303
+ /** Deterministic bootstrap seed passed to gainHistogram and the posterior helper. */
304
+ seed?: number;
305
+ /** Report timestamp. Defaults to current time. */
306
+ generatedAt?: string;
307
+ /**
308
+ * Hash of a preregistered protocol (e.g. `signManifest({...}).contentHash`).
309
+ * Embedded verbatim in the report so the analysis can be cited as the
310
+ * preregistered one rather than a post-hoc fishing expedition.
311
+ */
312
+ preregistrationHash?: string;
313
+ }
314
+ interface ResearchReportRecommendation {
315
+ decision: ResearchReportDecision;
316
+ candidateId: string | null;
317
+ rationale: string[];
318
+ risks: string[];
319
+ nextActions: string[];
320
+ }
321
+ interface ResearchReportCandidate {
322
+ candidateId: string;
323
+ n: number;
324
+ mean: number;
325
+ ciLow: number;
326
+ ciHigh: number;
327
+ qValue: number;
328
+ cohensD: number;
329
+ meanDeltaVsComparator: number | null;
330
+ pairedN: number;
331
+ medianGain: number | null;
332
+ meanGain: number | null;
333
+ gainCi: {
334
+ low: number;
335
+ high: number;
336
+ } | null;
337
+ /**
338
+ * Bayesian-bootstrap-style posterior summaries on the paired delta. Computed
339
+ * from the same resamples that produce the gain CI; interpretable as
340
+ * "fraction of resamples in which the candidate beats the comparator on
341
+ * matched pairs."
342
+ */
343
+ prGreaterThanZero: number | null;
344
+ prInRope: number | null;
345
+ /**
346
+ * Minimum detectable effect (in score units) at the candidate's paired N,
347
+ * the configured power, and the configured alpha. Standardised by the
348
+ * observed paired-delta SD and inverted via `requiredSampleSize`. Reported
349
+ * for every candidate so a `needs_more_data` verdict is actionable.
350
+ */
351
+ mde: number | null;
352
+ onParetoFrontier: boolean;
353
+ gate?: ParetoPoint['gate'];
354
+ decision: ResearchReportDecision;
355
+ decisionReason: string;
356
+ }
357
+ interface ResearchReportMethodology {
358
+ /**
359
+ * Plain-language assumptions the report depends on. Read these first when
360
+ * deciding whether the verdict is load-bearing for a launch decision.
361
+ */
362
+ assumptions: string[];
363
+ /** Tests and estimators the verdict was computed from. */
364
+ methods: string[];
365
+ /** Alternatives the author considered and why this report didn't take them. */
366
+ alternatives: string[];
367
+ /** Failure modes — when this report should NOT drive a decision. */
368
+ whenNotToApply: string[];
369
+ /** Citations for the methodological choices above. */
370
+ citations: string[];
371
+ }
372
+ interface ResearchReport {
373
+ kind: 'agent-eval-research-report';
374
+ title: string;
375
+ generatedAt: string;
376
+ split: 'search' | 'holdout';
377
+ comparator: string | null;
378
+ /**
379
+ * SHA-256 over the canonicalised set of `(runId, candidateId, split)` triples
380
+ * the report was computed from, plus the comparator and split. Stable across
381
+ * key insertion order; recomputable by the reader to verify provenance.
382
+ */
383
+ runFingerprint: string;
384
+ preregistrationHash: string | null;
385
+ rope: {
386
+ low: number;
387
+ high: number;
388
+ } | null;
389
+ executiveSummary: string[];
390
+ recommendation: ResearchReportRecommendation;
391
+ candidates: ResearchReportCandidate[];
392
+ summary: SummaryTable;
393
+ charts: {
394
+ pareto: ParetoFigureSpec;
395
+ gains: GainDistributionFigureSpec[];
396
+ };
397
+ methodology: ResearchReportMethodology;
398
+ failureClusters?: FailureClusterReport;
399
+ markdown: string;
400
+ html: string;
401
+ }
402
+ /**
403
+ * Executive research report for CPO / AI-lead / launch-review consumption.
404
+ *
405
+ * Composes:
406
+ * - `summaryTable` marginal stats with BH-FDR-adjusted q-values
407
+ * - `paretoChart` cost-vs-quality frontier with gate overlay
408
+ * - `gainHistogram` per-candidate paired-delta distribution
409
+ * - paired posterior (this file): bootstrap CI on median, Pr(Δ>0),
410
+ * Pr(Δ∈ROPE), MDE at the configured power
411
+ *
412
+ * Decisions are made on paired evidence — never on marginal means alone —
413
+ * and respect any held-out gate decision the caller passes through. The
414
+ * report embeds a SHA-256 fingerprint of the input run set and, optionally,
415
+ * the hash of a preregistered protocol so a downstream reader can verify
416
+ * provenance and that the analysis was the preregistered one.
417
+ *
418
+ * Async because the fingerprint uses Web Crypto via `hashJson`; deterministic
419
+ * for any fixed `runs`, `seed`, and ROPE.
420
+ */
421
+ declare function researchReport(runs: RunRecord[], opts?: ResearchReportOptions): Promise<ResearchReport>;
422
+
423
+ /**
424
+ * Always-valid sequential evaluation.
425
+ *
426
+ * `researchReport` assumes a single pre-specified analysis. Real
427
+ * consumers run campaigns weekly / nightly / per-PR; each new run silently
428
+ * inflates the false-discovery rate, because the BH-FDR guarantee is for
429
+ * the *first* look, not the 47th. Without time-uniform inference,
430
+ * launch-decision teams either (a) don't peek, which forfeits the cost
431
+ * advantage of stop-when-decisive, or (b) peek and pretend they didn't,
432
+ * which forfeits scientific validity.
433
+ *
434
+ * This module ships **e-value-based confidence sequences** for paired
435
+ * bounded outcomes. The methodology is the predictable plug-in betting
436
+ * martingale of Waudby-Smith & Ramdas (2024) — provably valid at *any*
437
+ * stopping time. Concretely:
438
+ *
439
+ * For paired deltas D_1, D_2, … ∈ [-c, c] with the null H_0: E[D] ≤ 0,
440
+ * a betting fraction λ_i is chosen using only D_{1..i-1} (predictable
441
+ * plug-in), and the running e-value is
442
+ *
443
+ * E_t = ∏_{i=1}^{t} (1 + λ_i · D_i)
444
+ *
445
+ * E_t is a non-negative martingale under H_0 with E[E_t] ≤ 1, so by
446
+ * Ville's inequality, P(∃ t : E_t ≥ 1/α) ≤ α — we can reject the null
447
+ * at any time without inflating the type-I error.
448
+ *
449
+ * Combined with `runEvalCampaign`, every consumer running rolling
450
+ * campaigns gains the ability to ship the moment evidence is decisive,
451
+ * stop-early on dead-on-arrival variants, and accumulate evidence across
452
+ * partial runs without spending the FDR budget. No new sweep is wasted.
453
+ *
454
+ * References:
455
+ * - Howard, S. R., Ramdas, A., McAuliffe, J., Sekhon, J. (2021).
456
+ * Time-uniform, nonparametric, nonasymptotic confidence sequences.
457
+ * Annals of Statistics, 49(2), 1055–1080.
458
+ * - Waudby-Smith, I., Ramdas, A. (2024). Estimating means of bounded
459
+ * random variables by betting. JRSS B, 86(1), 1–27.
460
+ */
461
+ type SequentialDecision = 'promote_now' | 'continue' | 'reject_now' | 'equivalent';
462
+ interface PairedEvalueOptions {
463
+ /**
464
+ * Bound on |delta|. Default 1 (matching most score scales). Must satisfy
465
+ * c > 0; deltas outside [-c, c] are clipped with a warning attached to
466
+ * the return value.
467
+ */
468
+ bound?: number;
469
+ /** Target Type-I error. Default 0.05. */
470
+ alpha?: number;
471
+ /**
472
+ * Region of Practical Equivalence on the *mean* paired delta. When
473
+ * supplied, the verdict can return `'equivalent'` once the running
474
+ * confidence sequence on the mean is fully contained in [low, high].
475
+ */
476
+ rope?: {
477
+ low: number;
478
+ high: number;
479
+ };
480
+ /** Initial bet shrinkage (0 < scale ≤ 1). Default 0.5 — empirically robust. */
481
+ initialBetShrinkage?: number;
482
+ }
483
+ interface PairedEvalueStep {
484
+ /** 1-indexed observation count. */
485
+ t: number;
486
+ delta: number;
487
+ /** Running e-value E_t = ∏ (1 + λ_i · D_i). */
488
+ evalue: number;
489
+ /** Time-uniform p-value at stopping time t. */
490
+ pValue: number;
491
+ /** Lower bound of the empirical Bernstein confidence sequence at level 1-α. */
492
+ csLow: number;
493
+ csHigh: number;
494
+ /** Verdict at this stopping time. */
495
+ decision: SequentialDecision;
496
+ }
497
+ interface PairedEvalueSequence {
498
+ steps: PairedEvalueStep[];
499
+ /** The decision at the final step. */
500
+ finalDecision: SequentialDecision;
501
+ /** Index (1-based) at which a non-`continue` decision first fired, or null. */
502
+ decisionFiredAt: number | null;
503
+ /** True if any deltas were clipped to [-bound, bound]. */
504
+ clipped: boolean;
505
+ }
506
+ /**
507
+ * Run the paired e-value sequence over an in-order delta stream.
508
+ *
509
+ * Use for *streaming* / interim analyses: pass the deltas you have so
510
+ * far, get the verdict at every prefix length. The decision is
511
+ * monotone-stable in the sense that once `'reject_now'` or `'promote_now'`
512
+ * fires, the verdict at later steps remains decisive (the e-value is a
513
+ * non-negative martingale; once it crosses the threshold, it's crossed).
514
+ */
515
+ declare function pairedEvalueSequence(deltas: number[], opts?: PairedEvalueOptions): PairedEvalueSequence;
516
+ interface InterimReleaseConfidenceInput {
517
+ /**
518
+ * One delta series per candidate (paired deltas vs comparator). Order
519
+ * within a series is the order the campaigns were run.
520
+ */
521
+ deltaSeries: Array<{
522
+ candidateId: string;
523
+ deltas: number[];
524
+ }>;
525
+ alpha?: number;
526
+ bound?: number;
527
+ rope?: {
528
+ low: number;
529
+ high: number;
530
+ };
531
+ }
532
+ interface InterimReleaseConfidence {
533
+ candidates: Array<{
534
+ candidateId: string;
535
+ decision: SequentialDecision;
536
+ decisionFiredAt: number | null;
537
+ finalEvalue: number;
538
+ finalPValue: number;
539
+ pairs: number;
540
+ csLow: number;
541
+ csHigh: number;
542
+ }>;
543
+ /**
544
+ * Campaign-level recommendation: pick the strongest 'promote_now', else
545
+ * 'continue' if any candidate is still live, else 'reject_now' if every
546
+ * candidate is dead, else 'equivalent'.
547
+ */
548
+ recommendation: {
549
+ decision: SequentialDecision;
550
+ candidateId: string | null;
551
+ };
552
+ }
553
+ /**
554
+ * Run interim sequential analyses across many candidates at once,
555
+ * preserving the time-uniform α guarantee for each candidate's series and
556
+ * synthesising a campaign-level recommendation. Designed to be called on
557
+ * every campaign tick — the recommendation is anytime-valid.
558
+ */
559
+ declare function evaluateInterimReleaseConfidence(input: InterimReleaseConfidenceInput): InterimReleaseConfidence;
560
+
561
+ export { type GainDistributionBin as G, HeldOutGate as H, type InterimReleaseConfidence as I, type PairedEvalueOptions as P, RESEARCH_REPORT_HARD_PAIR_FLOOR as R, type SequentialDecision as S, type GainDistributionFigureSpec as a, type GainDistributionOptions as b, type InterimReleaseConfidenceInput as c, type PairedEvalueSequence as d, type PairedEvalueStep as e, type ParetoFigureSpec as f, type ParetoPoint as g, type ResearchReport as h, type ResearchReportCandidate as i, type ResearchReportDecision as j, type ResearchReportMethodology as k, type ResearchReportOptions as l, type ResearchReportRecommendation as m, type SummaryTable as n, type SummaryTableOptions as o, type SummaryTableRow as p, evaluateInterimReleaseConfidence as q, gainHistogram as r, pairedEvalueSequence as s, paretoChart as t, researchReport as u, summaryTable as v, type GateDecision as w, type GateEvidence as x, type HeldOutGateConfig as y, type HeldOutGateRejectionCode as z };
package/dist/traces.d.ts CHANGED
@@ -1,8 +1,9 @@
1
1
  import { N as NotFoundError, R as ReplayError } from './errors-mje_cKOs.js';
2
- import { R as RawProviderSink, f as RawProviderEvent } from './integrity-DYR5gWlb.js';
3
- export { F as FileSystemRawProviderSink, c as FileSystemRawProviderSinkOptions, I as InMemoryRawProviderSink, d as InMemoryRawProviderSinkOptions, N as NoopRawProviderSink, P as ProviderRedactor, e as RawProviderDirection, g as RawProviderSinkFilter, h as RunIntegrityError, a as RunIntegrityExpectations, i as RunIntegrityIssue, j as RunIntegrityIssueCode, b as RunIntegrityReport, k as assertRunCaptured, l as defaultProviderRedactor, p as providerFromBaseUrl, t as throwIfRunIncomplete } from './integrity-DYR5gWlb.js';
2
+ import { R as RawProviderSink, d as RawProviderEvent } from './raw-provider-sink-C46HDghv.js';
3
+ export { F as FileSystemRawProviderSink, a as FileSystemRawProviderSinkOptions, I as InMemoryRawProviderSink, b as InMemoryRawProviderSinkOptions, N as NoopRawProviderSink, P as ProviderRedactor, c as RawProviderDirection, e as RawProviderSinkFilter, f as defaultProviderRedactor, p as providerFromBaseUrl } from './raw-provider-sink-C46HDghv.js';
4
4
  import { R as RunCompleteHook, a as RunCompleteHookContext } from './emitter-DP_cSSiw.js';
5
5
  export { S as SpanHandle, T as TraceEmitter, b as TraceEmitterOptions, l as llmSpanFromProvider } from './emitter-DP_cSSiw.js';
6
+ export { b as RunIntegrityError, R as RunIntegrityExpectations, c as RunIntegrityIssue, d as RunIntegrityIssueCode, a as RunIntegrityReport, e as assertRunCaptured, t as throwIfRunIncomplete } from './integrity-CTDhR1Sg.js';
6
7
  import { T as TraceStore } from './store-Db2Bv8Cf.js';
7
8
  export { A as Artifact, B as BudgetLedgerEntry, g as BudgetSpec, i as EventFilter, E as EventKind, j as FAILURE_CLASSES, F as FailureClass, k as FileSystemTraceStore, l as FileSystemTraceStoreOptions, G as GenericSpan, I as InMemoryTraceStore, J as JudgeSpan, L as LlmSpan, M as Message, e as RetrievalSpan, R as Run, h as RunFilter, m as RunLayer, c as RunOutcome, n as RunStatus, f as SandboxSpan, S as Span, o as SpanBase, p as SpanFilter, d as SpanKind, q as SpanStatus, r as TRACE_SCHEMA_VERSION, a as ToolSpan, b as TraceEvent, s as isJudgeSpan, t as isLlmSpan, u as isRetrievalSpan, v as isSandboxSpan, w as isToolSpan } from './store-Db2Bv8Cf.js';
8
9
  export { a as aggregateLlm, b as argHash, g as groupBy, j as judgeSpans, l as llmSpans, r as runFailureClass, c as runsForScenario, t as toolSpans } from './query-DODUYdPg.js';
package/dist/traces.js CHANGED
@@ -63,6 +63,11 @@ import {
63
63
  assertRunCaptured,
64
64
  throwIfRunIncomplete
65
65
  } from "./chunk-UBPIXOC4.js";
66
+ import {
67
+ TraceEmitter,
68
+ llmSpanFromProvider
69
+ } from "./chunk-TVVP3ZZQ.js";
70
+ import "./chunk-VSMTAMNK.js";
66
71
  import {
67
72
  FileSystemRawProviderSink,
68
73
  InMemoryRawProviderSink,
@@ -70,11 +75,6 @@ import {
70
75
  defaultProviderRedactor,
71
76
  providerFromBaseUrl
72
77
  } from "./chunk-PC4UYEBM.js";
73
- import {
74
- TraceEmitter,
75
- llmSpanFromProvider
76
- } from "./chunk-TVVP3ZZQ.js";
77
- import "./chunk-VSMTAMNK.js";
78
78
  import "./chunk-QYJT52YW.js";
79
79
  import "./chunk-PZ5AY32C.js";
80
80
  export {