@tangle-network/agent-eval 0.33.0 → 0.34.0

package/dist/chunk-FT3IAMQR.js.map

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+{"version":3,"sources":["../src/feedback-trajectory.ts","../src/held-out-gate.ts","../src/pareto.ts","../src/prompt-evolution.ts","../src/multi-shot-optimization.ts","../src/reflective-mutation.ts","../src/researcher.ts"],"sourcesContent":["import type { ControlEvalResult, ControlRunResult, ControlStep } from './control-runtime'\nimport type { DatasetScenario, DatasetSplit } from './dataset'\n\nexport type FeedbackArtifactType =\n  | 'text'\n  | 'code'\n  | 'plan'\n  | 'research'\n  | 'action'\n  | 'ui'\n  | 'decision'\n  | 'data'\n  | 'other'\n\nexport type FeedbackLabelSource = 'user' | 'judge' | 'environment' | 'metric' | 'policy' | 'system'\n\nexport type FeedbackLabelKind =\n  | 'approve'\n  | 'reject'\n  | 'select'\n  | 'edit'\n  | 'rank'\n  | 'rate'\n  | 'comment'\n  | 'metric_outcome'\n  | 'policy_block'\n  | 'revision_request'\n\nexport type FeedbackSeverity = 'info' | 'warning' | 'error' | 'critical'\n\nexport interface FeedbackTask {\n  intent: string\n  context?: unknown\n}\n\nexport interface ProposedSideEffect {\n  type: string\n  risk?: 'low' | 'medium' | 'high'\n  costUsd?: number\n  externalSideEffect?: boolean\n  requiresApproval?: boolean\n  metadata?: Record<string, unknown>\n}\n\nexport interface FeedbackLabel {\n  id?: string\n  source: FeedbackLabelSource\n  kind: FeedbackLabelKind\n  value: unknown\n  reason?: string\n  severity?: FeedbackSeverity\n  createdAt: string\n  metadata?: Record<string, unknown>\n}\n\nexport interface FeedbackAttempt {\n  id: string\n  stepIndex: number\n  artifactType: FeedbackArtifactType\n  artifact: unknown\n  options?: unknown[]\n  proposedAction?: ProposedSideEffect\n  evals?: ControlEvalResult[]\n  feedback?: FeedbackLabel[]\n  createdAt: string\n  metadata?: Record<string, unknown>\n}\n\nexport interface FeedbackOutcome {\n  success?: boolean\n  score?: number\n  metrics?: Record<string, number>\n  costUsd?: number\n  detail?: string\n  observedAt?: string\n  metadata?: Record<string, unknown>\n}\n\nexport interface FeedbackTrajectory {\n  id: string\n  projectId?: string\n  scenarioId?: string\n  task: FeedbackTask\n  attempts: FeedbackAttempt[]\n  labels: FeedbackLabel[]\n  outcome?: FeedbackOutcome\n  split?: DatasetSplit\n  tags?: Record<string, string>\n  createdAt: string\n  updatedAt?: string\n  metadata?: Record<string, unknown>\n}\n\nexport interface FeedbackTrajectoryStore {\n  save(trajectory: FeedbackTrajectory): Promise<void>\n  get(id: string): Promise<FeedbackTrajectory | null>\n  list(filter?: FeedbackTrajectoryFilter): Promise<FeedbackTrajectory[]>\n  appendAttempt(id: string, attempt: FeedbackAttempt): Promise<FeedbackTrajectory>\n  appendLabel(id: string, label: FeedbackLabel, attemptId?: string): Promise<FeedbackTrajectory>\n}\n\nexport interface FeedbackTrajectoryFilter {\n  projectId?: string\n  scenarioId?: string\n  split?: DatasetSplit\n  tag?: [string, string]\n}\n\nexport interface FeedbackSplitPolicy {\n  trainPct?: number\n  devPct?: number\n  testPct?: number\n  holdoutPct?: number\n}\n\nexport interface PreferenceMemoryEntry {\n  instruction: string\n  rationale: string\n  weight: number\n  sourceTrajectoryId: string\n  sourceLabelId?: string\n  category?: string\n}\n\nexport interface FeedbackOptimizerRow {\n  scenarioId: string\n  trajectoryId: string\n  labelKinds: FeedbackLabelKind[]\n  score?: number\n  metadata?: Record<string, unknown>\n}\n\nexport interface FeedbackReplayResult {\n  trajectoryId: string\n  pass: boolean\n  score?: number\n  labels: FeedbackLabel[]\n  outcome?: FeedbackOutcome\n  metadata?: Record<string, unknown>\n}\n\nexport interface FeedbackReplayAdapter {\n  replay(\n    trajectory: FeedbackTrajectory,\n  ):\n    | Promise<Omit<FeedbackReplayResult, 'trajectoryId'>>\n    | Omit<FeedbackReplayResult, 'trajectoryId'>\n}\n\nconst DEFAULT_SPLIT_POLICY: Required<FeedbackSplitPolicy> = {\n  trainPct: 70,\n  devPct: 15,\n  testPct: 10,\n  holdoutPct: 5,\n}\n\nexport class InMemoryFeedbackTrajectoryStore implements FeedbackTrajectoryStore {\n  private readonly trajectories = new Map<string, FeedbackTrajectory>()\n\n  async save(trajectory: FeedbackTrajectory): Promise<void> {\n    this.trajectories.set(trajectory.id, cloneTrajectory(trajectory))\n  }\n\n  async get(id: string): Promise<FeedbackTrajectory | null> {\n    const trajectory = this.trajectories.get(id)\n    return trajectory ? cloneTrajectory(trajectory) : null\n  }\n\n  async list(filter: FeedbackTrajectoryFilter = {}): Promise<FeedbackTrajectory[]> {\n    return [...this.trajectories.values()]\n      .filter((trajectory) => matchesFilter(trajectory, filter))\n      .map(cloneTrajectory)\n  }\n\n  async appendAttempt(id: string, attempt: FeedbackAttempt): Promise<FeedbackTrajectory> {\n    const trajectory = this.trajectories.get(id)\n    if (!trajectory)\n      throw new Error(`FeedbackTrajectoryStore.appendAttempt: unknown trajectory \"${id}\"`)\n    const next = cloneTrajectory({\n      ...trajectory,\n      attempts: [...trajectory.attempts, attempt],\n      updatedAt: attempt.createdAt,\n    })\n    this.trajectories.set(id, next)\n    return cloneTrajectory(next)\n  }\n\n  async appendLabel(\n    id: string,\n    label: FeedbackLabel,\n    attemptId?: string,\n  ): Promise<FeedbackTrajectory> {\n    const trajectory = this.trajectories.get(id)\n    if (!trajectory)\n      throw new Error(`FeedbackTrajectoryStore.appendLabel: unknown trajectory \"${id}\"`)\n    const attempts = attemptId\n      ? trajectory.attempts.map((attempt) =>\n          attempt.id === attemptId\n            ? { ...attempt, feedback: [...(attempt.feedback ?? []), label] }\n            : attempt,\n        )\n      : trajectory.attempts\n    const next = cloneTrajectory({\n      ...trajectory,\n      attempts,\n      labels: attemptId ? trajectory.labels : [...trajectory.labels, label],\n      updatedAt: label.createdAt,\n    })\n    this.trajectories.set(id, next)\n    return cloneTrajectory(next)\n  }\n}\n\nexport class FileSystemFeedbackTrajectoryStore implements FeedbackTrajectoryStore {\n  private readonly dir: string\n  private readonly memory = new InMemoryFeedbackTrajectoryStore()\n  private loaded = false\n\n  constructor(options: { dir: string }) {\n    this.dir = options.dir\n  }\n\n  async save(trajectory: FeedbackTrajectory): Promise<void> {\n    await this.load()\n    await this.memory.save(trajectory)\n    await this.append({ op: 'save', trajectory })\n  }\n\n  async get(id: string): Promise<FeedbackTrajectory | null> {\n    await this.load()\n    return this.memory.get(id)\n  }\n\n  async list(filter: FeedbackTrajectoryFilter = {}): Promise<FeedbackTrajectory[]> {\n    await this.load()\n    return this.memory.list(filter)\n  }\n\n  async appendAttempt(id: string, attempt: FeedbackAttempt): Promise<FeedbackTrajectory> {\n    await this.load()\n    const next = await this.memory.appendAttempt(id, attempt)\n    await this.append({ op: 'appendAttempt', id, attempt })\n    return next\n  }\n\n  async appendLabel(\n    id: string,\n    label: FeedbackLabel,\n    attemptId?: string,\n  ): Promise<FeedbackTrajectory> {\n    await this.load()\n    const next = await this.memory.appendLabel(id, label, attemptId)\n    await this.append({ op: 'appendLabel', id, label, attemptId })\n    return next\n  }\n\n  private async append(record: unknown): Promise<void> {\n    const { appendFile, mkdir } = await import('node:fs/promises')\n    const { join } = await import('node:path')\n    await mkdir(this.dir, { recursive: true })\n    await appendFile(\n      join(this.dir, 'feedback-trajectories.ndjson'),\n      `${JSON.stringify(record)}\\n`,\n      'utf8',\n    )\n  }\n\n  private async load(): Promise<void> {\n    if (this.loaded) return\n    const { readFile } = await import('node:fs/promises')\n    const { join } = await import('node:path')\n    const file = join(this.dir, 'feedback-trajectories.ndjson')\n    try {\n      const raw = await readFile(file, 'utf8')\n      for (const line of raw.split('\\n')) {\n        if (!line.trim()) continue\n        try {\n          const record = JSON.parse(line) as\n            | { op: 'save'; trajectory: FeedbackTrajectory }\n            | { op: 'appendAttempt'; id: string; attempt: FeedbackAttempt }\n            | { op: 'appendLabel'; id: string; label: FeedbackLabel; attemptId?: string }\n          if (record.op === 'save') await this.memory.save(record.trajectory)\n          if (record.op === 'appendAttempt')\n            await this.memory.appendAttempt(record.id, record.attempt)\n          if (record.op === 'appendLabel')\n            await this.memory.appendLabel(record.id, record.label, record.attemptId)\n        } catch {\n          /* corrupt records are skipped so one bad line does not discard the corpus */\n        }\n      }\n    } catch {\n      /* first run */\n    }\n    this.loaded = true\n  }\n}\n\nexport function createFeedbackTrajectory(input: {\n  id?: string\n  projectId?: string\n  scenarioId?: string\n  task: FeedbackTask\n  attempts?: FeedbackAttempt[]\n  labels?: FeedbackLabel[]\n  outcome?: FeedbackOutcome\n  split?: DatasetSplit\n  tags?: Record<string, string>\n  createdAt?: string\n  metadata?: Record<string, unknown>\n}): FeedbackTrajectory {\n  const createdAt = input.createdAt ?? new Date().toISOString()\n  const id =\n    input.id ??\n    `ft_${stableHash(`${input.projectId ?? ''}|${input.scenarioId ?? ''}|${input.task.intent}|${createdAt}`).toString(16)}`\n  return {\n    id,\n    projectId: input.projectId,\n    scenarioId: input.scenarioId,\n    task: input.task,\n    attempts: input.attempts ?? [],\n    labels: input.labels ?? [],\n    outcome: input.outcome,\n    split: input.split,\n    tags: input.tags,\n    createdAt,\n    metadata: input.metadata,\n  }\n}\n\nexport function assignFeedbackSplit(\n  trajectory: Pick<FeedbackTrajectory, 'id' | 'projectId' | 'scenarioId' | 'task'>,\n  policy: FeedbackSplitPolicy = {},\n): DatasetSplit {\n  const split = { ...DEFAULT_SPLIT_POLICY, ...policy }\n  const total = split.trainPct + split.devPct + split.testPct + split.holdoutPct\n  if (total <= 0) throw new Error('assignFeedbackSplit: split percentages must sum above zero')\n  const bucket =\n    stableHash(\n      `${trajectory.projectId ?? ''}|${trajectory.scenarioId ?? ''}|${trajectory.id}|${trajectory.task.intent}`,\n    ) % total\n  if (bucket < split.trainPct) return 'train'\n  if (bucket < split.trainPct + split.devPct) return 'dev'\n  if (bucket < split.trainPct + split.devPct + split.testPct) return 'test'\n  return 'holdout'\n}\n\nexport function withAssignedFeedbackSplit(\n  trajectory: FeedbackTrajectory,\n  policy?: FeedbackSplitPolicy,\n): FeedbackTrajectory {\n  return {\n    ...trajectory,\n    split: trajectory.split ?? assignFeedbackSplit(trajectory, policy),\n  }\n}\n\nexport function feedbackTrajectoryToDatasetScenario(\n  trajectory: FeedbackTrajectory,\n): DatasetScenario {\n  const withSplit = withAssignedFeedbackSplit(trajectory)\n  return {\n    id: withSplit.scenarioId ?? withSplit.id,\n    split: withSplit.split,\n    payload: withSplit,\n    tags: {\n      ...(withSplit.projectId ? { projectId: withSplit.projectId } : {}),\n      ...(withSplit.tags ?? {}),\n      source: 'feedback-trajectory',\n    },\n  }\n}\n\nexport function feedbackTrajectoriesToDatasetScenarios(\n  trajectories: FeedbackTrajectory[],\n): DatasetScenario[] {\n  return trajectories.map(feedbackTrajectoryToDatasetScenario)\n}\n\nexport function feedbackTrajectoryToOptimizerRow(\n  trajectory: FeedbackTrajectory,\n): FeedbackOptimizerRow {\n  const labels = allLabels(trajectory)\n  return {\n    scenarioId: trajectory.scenarioId ?? trajectory.id,\n    trajectoryId: trajectory.id,\n    labelKinds: [...new Set(labels.map((label) => label.kind))],\n    score: trajectory.outcome?.score ?? scoreFromLabels(labels),\n    metadata: {\n      projectId: trajectory.projectId,\n      split: trajectory.split,\n      intent: trajectory.task.intent,\n      attempts: trajectory.attempts.length,\n      outcome: trajectory.outcome,\n      labels,\n    },\n  }\n}\n\nexport function feedbackTrajectoriesToOptimizerRows(\n  trajectories: FeedbackTrajectory[],\n): FeedbackOptimizerRow[] {\n  return trajectories.map(feedbackTrajectoryToOptimizerRow)\n}\n\nexport async function replayFeedbackTrajectory(\n  trajectory: FeedbackTrajectory,\n  adapter: FeedbackReplayAdapter,\n): Promise<FeedbackReplayResult> {\n  try {\n    const result = await adapter.replay(trajectory)\n    return {\n      trajectoryId: trajectory.id,\n      ...result,\n    }\n  } catch (err) {\n    const createdAt = new Date().toISOString()\n    const message = err instanceof Error ? err.message : String(err)\n    return {\n      trajectoryId: trajectory.id,\n      pass: false,\n      labels: [\n        {\n          source: 'system',\n          kind: 'reject',\n          value: false,\n          reason: message,\n          severity: 'error',\n          createdAt,\n        },\n      ],\n      outcome: {\n        success: false,\n        score: 0,\n        detail: message,\n        observedAt: createdAt,\n      },\n      metadata: { replayError: true },\n    }\n  }\n}\n\nexport async function replayFeedbackTrajectories(\n  trajectories: FeedbackTrajectory[],\n  adapter: FeedbackReplayAdapter,\n): Promise<FeedbackReplayResult[]> {\n  const results: FeedbackReplayResult[] = []\n  for (const trajectory of trajectories) {\n    results.push(await replayFeedbackTrajectory(trajectory, adapter))\n  }\n  return results\n}\n\nexport function summarizePreferenceMemory(\n  trajectories: FeedbackTrajectory[],\n  options: { maxEntries?: number } = {},\n): PreferenceMemoryEntry[] {\n  const maxEntries = options.maxEntries ?? 20\n  const entries: PreferenceMemoryEntry[] = []\n  for (const trajectory of trajectories) {\n    for (const label of allLabels(trajectory)) {\n      const instruction = instructionFromLabel(trajectory, label)\n      if (!instruction) continue\n      entries.push({\n        instruction,\n        rationale: label.reason ?? `${label.kind} label from ${label.source}`,\n        weight: weightForLabel(label),\n        sourceTrajectoryId: trajectory.id,\n        sourceLabelId: label.id,\n        category: label.kind,\n      })\n    }\n  }\n\n  const byInstruction = new Map<string, PreferenceMemoryEntry>()\n  for (const entry of entries) {\n    const key = entry.instruction.toLowerCase().replace(/\\s+/g, ' ').trim()\n    const existing = byInstruction.get(key)\n    if (!existing || entry.weight > existing.weight) byInstruction.set(key, entry)\n  }\n  return [...byInstruction.values()].sort((a, b) => b.weight - a.weight).slice(0, maxEntries)\n}\n\nexport function renderPreferenceMemoryMarkdown(entries: PreferenceMemoryEntry[]): string {\n  const lines = ['# Preference Memory', '']\n  for (const entry of entries) {\n    lines.push(`- ${entry.instruction}`)\n    lines.push(`  Rationale: ${entry.rationale}`)\n    lines.push(`  Source: ${entry.sourceTrajectoryId}`)\n    lines.push('')\n  }\n  return `${lines.join('\\n').trim()}\\n`\n}\n\nexport function serializeFeedbackTrajectoriesJsonl(trajectories: FeedbackTrajectory[]): string {\n  return `${trajectories\n    .slice()\n    .sort((a, b) => a.id.localeCompare(b.id))\n    .map((trajectory) => JSON.stringify(canonicalize(trajectory)))\n    .join('\\n')}\\n`\n}\n\nexport function parseFeedbackTrajectoriesJsonl(jsonl: string): FeedbackTrajectory[] {\n  const trajectories: FeedbackTrajectory[] = []\n  for (const line of jsonl.split('\\n')) {\n    if (!line.trim()) continue\n    trajectories.push(JSON.parse(line) as FeedbackTrajectory)\n  }\n  return trajectories\n}\n\nexport function controlRunToFeedbackTrajectory<TState, TAction, TActionResult>(\n  run: ControlRunResult<TState, TAction, TActionResult>,\n  options: {\n    projectId?: string\n    scenarioId?: string\n    artifactType?: FeedbackArtifactType\n    artifactFromStep?: (step: ControlStep<TState, TAction, TActionResult>) => unknown\n    proposedActionFromStep?: (\n      step: ControlStep<TState, TAction, TActionResult>,\n    ) => ProposedSideEffect | undefined\n    createdAt?: string\n  } = {},\n): FeedbackTrajectory {\n  const createdAt = options.createdAt ?? new Date().toISOString()\n  const trajectoryId =\n    run.runId ?? `ft_control_${stableHash(`${run.intent}|${createdAt}`).toString(16)}`\n  return createFeedbackTrajectory({\n    id: trajectoryId,\n    projectId: options.projectId,\n    scenarioId: options.scenarioId,\n    task: { intent: run.intent },\n    createdAt,\n    attempts: run.steps.map((step) => ({\n      id: `${trajectoryId}_step_${step.index}`,\n      stepIndex: step.index,\n      artifactType: options.artifactType ?? 'action',\n      artifact: options.artifactFromStep?.(step) ?? step.actionOutcome?.result ?? step.decision,\n      proposedAction: options.proposedActionFromStep?.(step),\n      evals: step.evalsAfter,\n      createdAt: step.startedAt,\n      metadata: {\n        decision: step.decision,\n        actionOutcome: step.actionOutcome,\n      },\n    })),\n    labels: [\n      {\n        source: 'system',\n        kind: run.pass ? 'approve' : 'reject',\n        value: run.pass,\n        reason: run.reason,\n        severity: run.pass ? 'info' : 'error',\n        createdAt,\n      },\n    ],\n    outcome: {\n      success: run.pass,\n      score: run.score,\n      costUsd: run.spentCostUsd,\n      detail: run.reason,\n      observedAt: createdAt,\n      metadata: {\n        stoppedBy: run.stoppedBy,\n        failureClass: run.failureClass,\n      },\n    },\n  })\n}\n\nfunction allLabels(trajectory: FeedbackTrajectory): FeedbackLabel[] {\n  const labels = [\n    ...trajectory.labels,\n    ...trajectory.attempts.flatMap((attempt) => attempt.feedback ?? []),\n  ]\n  const seen = new Set<string>()\n  return labels.filter((label) => {\n    const key =\n      label.id ?? `${label.source}|${label.kind}|${label.createdAt}|${JSON.stringify(label.value)}`\n    if (seen.has(key)) return false\n    seen.add(key)\n    return true\n  })\n}\n\nfunction scoreFromLabels(labels: FeedbackLabel[]): number | undefined {\n  if (!labels.length) return undefined\n  const scored = labels\n    .map((label) => {\n      if (label.kind === 'approve' || label.kind === 'select') return 1\n      if (label.kind === 'reject' || label.kind === 'policy_block') return 0\n      if (label.kind === 'rate' && typeof label.value === 'number')\n        return Math.max(0, Math.min(1, label.value))\n      return undefined\n    })\n    .filter((value): value is number => typeof value === 'number')\n  if (!scored.length) return undefined\n  return Math.round((scored.reduce((sum, value) => sum + value, 0) / scored.length) * 1000) / 1000\n}\n\nfunction instructionFromLabel(\n  trajectory: FeedbackTrajectory,\n  label: FeedbackLabel,\n): string | undefined {\n  if (label.kind === 'reject' && label.reason)\n    return `Avoid outputs like \"${compact(trajectory.task.intent, 80)}\" when: ${label.reason}`\n  if (label.kind === 'revision_request' && label.reason)\n    return `Revise similar work by applying: ${label.reason}`\n  if (label.kind === 'select' && label.reason)\n    return `Prefer selected options for \"${compact(trajectory.task.intent, 80)}\" because: ${label.reason}`\n  if (label.kind === 'approve' && label.reason)\n    return `Repeat the pattern approved for \"${compact(trajectory.task.intent, 80)}\": ${label.reason}`\n  if (label.kind === 'comment' && label.reason) return label.reason\n  return undefined\n}\n\nfunction weightForLabel(label: FeedbackLabel): number {\n  const severity =\n    label.severity === 'critical'\n      ? 4\n      : label.severity === 'error'\n        ? 3\n        : label.severity === 'warning'\n          ? 2\n          : 1\n  const source =\n    label.source === 'user'\n      ? 3\n      : label.source === 'metric' || label.source === 'environment'\n        ? 2\n        : 1\n  return severity * source\n}\n\nfunction matchesFilter(trajectory: FeedbackTrajectory, filter: FeedbackTrajectoryFilter): boolean {\n  if (filter.projectId && trajectory.projectId !== filter.projectId) return false\n  if (filter.scenarioId && trajectory.scenarioId !== filter.scenarioId) return false\n  if (filter.split && trajectory.split !== filter.split) return false\n  if (filter.tag) {\n    const [key, value] = filter.tag\n    if (trajectory.tags?.[key] !== value) return false\n  }\n  return true\n}\n\nfunction cloneTrajectory(trajectory: FeedbackTrajectory): FeedbackTrajectory {\n  return JSON.parse(JSON.stringify(trajectory)) as FeedbackTrajectory\n}\n\nfunction compact(value: string, max: number): string {\n  const normalized = value.replace(/\\s+/g, ' ').trim()\n  return normalized.length > max ? `${normalized.slice(0, max).trim()}...` : normalized\n}\n\nfunction stableHash(input: string): number {\n  let hash = 2166136261\n  for (let i = 0; i < input.length; i += 1) {\n    hash ^= input.charCodeAt(i)\n    hash = Math.imul(hash, 16777619)\n  }\n  return hash >>> 0\n}\n\nfunction canonicalize(value: unknown): unknown {\n  if (value === null || typeof value !== 'object') return value\n  if (Array.isArray(value)) return value.map(canonicalize)\n  const out: Record<string, unknown> = {}\n  for (const key of Object.keys(value as Record<string, unknown>).sort()) {\n    out[key] = canonicalize((value as Record<string, unknown>)[key])\n  }\n  return out\n}\n","/**\n * HeldOutGate — first-class held-out paired-delta promotion gate.\n *\n * Encodes the \"honesty override\" pattern that lived inline in\n * `~/webb/redteam/scripts/agent-eval-autoresearch.ts:138–171`.\n * The optimizer's best-guess is one thing; what we should actually\n * ship is another. The gate is the line between them.\n *\n * A candidate is promoted iff ALL three pass:\n *\n *   1. **Productive runs**: the candidate has at least\n *      `minProductiveRuns` paired observations on items where BOTH\n *      candidate and baseline produced a real (non-silent) score.\n *   2. **Paired delta**: the lower bound of the bootstrap CI on the\n *      median per-item delta (candidate − baseline) on the HOLDOUT\n *      split is strictly greater than `pairedDeltaThreshold`.\n *   3. **Overfit gap**: the candidate's gap between search-split\n *      score and holdout-split score is no worse (more positive)\n *      than the baseline's gap by more than `overfitGapThreshold`.\n *      \"Better on search, worse on holdout\" is the canonical\n *      overfit pattern; this catches it.\n *\n * The decision carries a machine-readable `rejectionCode` plus an\n * `evidence` block with every number the gate looked at, so the\n * downstream researcher / paper / dashboard can re-derive the\n * verdict without re-running.\n *\n * See also:\n *   - `src/statistics.ts` for `pairedBootstrap` + `wilcoxonSignedRank`\n *   - `src/run-record.ts` for the input row schema\n *   - `src/reference-replay.ts` for the older, reference-replay-\n *     specific promotion path (still useful for replay-style evals).\n */\n\nimport type { RunRecord } from './run-record'\nimport { pairedBootstrap, wilcoxonSignedRank } from './statistics'\n\nexport type HeldOutGateRejectionCode = 'few_runs' | 'negative_delta' | 'overfit_gap'\n\nexport interface HeldOutGateConfig {\n  /** Minimum number of paired (candidate, baseline) holdout observations\n   *  required before the gate will even consider promoting. Default 3. */\n  minProductiveRuns?: number\n  /** The bootstrap-CI lower bound on the median paired holdout delta\n   *  must exceed this to promote. Default 0. */\n  pairedDeltaThreshold?: number\n  /** Maximum allowed worsening of (search − holdout) gap relative to\n   *  baseline. Default 0.15 (i.e. candidate may overfit by up to 15\n   *  absolute score points more than baseline before rejection). */\n  overfitGapThreshold?: number\n  /** Stable label of the baseline candidate. Required — paper-grade\n   *  evaluation never compares two unlabelled candidates. */\n  baselineKey: string\n  /** Confidence level for the bootstrap CI. Default 0.95. */\n  confidence?: number\n  /** Bootstrap resamples. Default 2000. */\n  bootstrapResamples?: number\n  /** Optional deterministic seed for the bootstrap. Default undefined\n   *  (Math.random). */\n  seed?: number\n}\n\nexport interface GateEvidence {\n  /** Number of paired (candidate, baseline) holdout observations used. */\n  productiveRuns: number\n  /** Median of (candidate − baseline) paired holdout deltas. */\n  medianPairedDelta: number\n  /** Bootstrap CI on the median paired holdout delta. */\n  pairedCI: { low: number; high: number }\n  /** Wilcoxon signed-rank p-value on the paired holdout deltas. */\n  pairedPValue: number\n  /** Mean candidate score on the search split (NaN if none). */\n  searchScore: number\n  /** Mean candidate score on the holdout split (NaN if none). */\n  holdoutScore: number\n  /** Candidate (search − holdout) gap. */\n  overfitGap: number\n  /** Baseline (search − holdout) gap. */\n  baselineOverfitGap: number\n}\n\nexport interface GateDecision {\n  /** Final promote/no-promote verdict. */\n  promote: boolean\n  /** The candidate that was evaluated. */\n  candidateId: string\n  /** The baseline it was compared against. */\n  baselineId: string\n  /** Every number the gate looked at, for audit + paper export. */\n  evidence: GateEvidence\n  /** Human-readable reason. */\n  reason: string\n  /** Machine-readable rejection code, or null on promote. */\n  rejectionCode: HeldOutGateRejectionCode | null\n}\n\n/**\n * Held-out paired-delta promotion gate. Construct once with config,\n * call `evaluate(candidateRuns, baselineRuns)` per (candidate,\n * baseline) pair. Stateless across calls.\n */\nexport class HeldOutGate {\n  private readonly minProductiveRuns: number\n  private readonly pairedDeltaThreshold: number\n  private readonly overfitGapThreshold: number\n  private readonly baselineKey: string\n  private readonly confidence: number\n  private readonly resamples: number\n  private readonly seed?: number\n\n  constructor(config: HeldOutGateConfig) {\n    if (!config.baselineKey) {\n      throw new Error('HeldOutGate: baselineKey is required')\n    }\n    this.minProductiveRuns = config.minProductiveRuns ?? 3\n    this.pairedDeltaThreshold = config.pairedDeltaThreshold ?? 0\n    this.overfitGapThreshold = config.overfitGapThreshold ?? 0.15\n    this.baselineKey = config.baselineKey\n    this.confidence = config.confidence ?? 0.95\n    this.resamples = config.bootstrapResamples ?? 2000\n    this.seed = config.seed\n  }\n\n  /** Decide whether `candidate` should replace `baseline`. Pairing\n   *  is by (experimentId, seed) — identical experiment + seed pairs\n   *  the candidate run with the matching baseline run. Pairs without\n   *  a holdout score on both sides are dropped. */\n  evaluate(candidate: RunRecord[], baseline: RunRecord[]): GateDecision {\n    const candidateId = inferCandidateId(candidate, this.baselineKey)\n    const baselineId = this.baselineKey\n\n    // Pair holdout runs by (experimentId, seed).\n    const baselineHoldoutByKey = indexHoldoutByKey(baseline)\n    const beforeHoldout: number[] = []\n    const afterHoldout: number[] = []\n    for (const run of candidate) {\n      if (run.splitTag !== 'holdout') continue\n      if (run.outcome.holdoutScore === undefined) continue\n      const key = pairKey(run)\n      const counterpart = baselineHoldoutByKey.get(key)\n      if (counterpart === undefined) continue\n      beforeHoldout.push(counterpart)\n      afterHoldout.push(run.outcome.holdoutScore)\n    }\n\n    const productiveRuns = beforeHoldout.length\n\n    // Always compute the gap numbers — useful even when we reject on\n    // few_runs (you want to see why).\n    const candidateSearchMean = mean(scores(candidate, 'searchScore', 'search'))\n    const candidateHoldoutMean = mean(scores(candidate, 'holdoutScore', 'holdout'))\n    const baselineSearchMean = mean(scores(baseline, 'searchScore', 'search'))\n    const baselineHoldoutMean = mean(scores(baseline, 'holdoutScore', 'holdout'))\n\n    const overfitGap = safeDiff(candidateSearchMean, candidateHoldoutMean)\n    const baselineOverfitGap = safeDiff(baselineSearchMean, baselineHoldoutMean)\n\n    // Few-runs gate.\n    if (productiveRuns < this.minProductiveRuns) {\n      return {\n        promote: false,\n        candidateId,\n        baselineId,\n        evidence: {\n          productiveRuns,\n          medianPairedDelta: productiveRuns > 0 ? medianDelta(beforeHoldout, afterHoldout) : 0,\n          pairedCI: { low: 0, high: 0 },\n          pairedPValue: 1,\n          searchScore: candidateSearchMean,\n          holdoutScore: candidateHoldoutMean,\n          overfitGap,\n          baselineOverfitGap,\n        },\n        reason: `few_runs: ${productiveRuns} paired holdout observation(s) < min ${this.minProductiveRuns}`,\n        rejectionCode: 'few_runs',\n      }\n    }\n\n    // Paired bootstrap on holdout deltas.\n    const ci = pairedBootstrap(beforeHoldout, afterHoldout, {\n      confidence: this.confidence,\n      resamples: this.resamples,\n      statistic: 'median',\n      seed: this.seed,\n    })\n    const wilcoxon = wilcoxonSignedRank(beforeHoldout, afterHoldout)\n\n    const evidence: GateEvidence = {\n      productiveRuns,\n      medianPairedDelta: ci.median,\n      pairedCI: { low: ci.low, high: ci.high },\n      pairedPValue: wilcoxon.p,\n      searchScore: candidateSearchMean,\n      holdoutScore: candidateHoldoutMean,\n      overfitGap,\n      baselineOverfitGap,\n    }\n\n    // Negative-delta gate (CI lower bound must clear the threshold).\n    if (!(ci.low > this.pairedDeltaThreshold)) {\n      return {\n        promote: false,\n        candidateId,\n        baselineId,\n        evidence,\n        reason:\n          `negative_delta: paired holdout median Δ=${fmt(ci.median)} ` +\n          `CI=[${fmt(ci.low)}, ${fmt(ci.high)}] does not clear threshold ${fmt(this.pairedDeltaThreshold)}`,\n        rejectionCode: 'negative_delta',\n      }\n    }\n\n    // Overfit-gap gate. We allow some absolute slack —\n    // candidate.gap ≤ baseline.gap + overfitGapThreshold.\n    if (\n      Number.isFinite(overfitGap) &&\n      Number.isFinite(baselineOverfitGap) &&\n      overfitGap > baselineOverfitGap + this.overfitGapThreshold\n    ) {\n      return {\n        promote: false,\n        candidateId,\n        baselineId,\n        evidence,\n        reason:\n          `overfit_gap: candidate gap=${fmt(overfitGap)} exceeds baseline gap=${fmt(baselineOverfitGap)} ` +\n          `by more than ${fmt(this.overfitGapThreshold)}`,\n        rejectionCode: 'overfit_gap',\n      }\n    }\n\n    return {\n      promote: true,\n      candidateId,\n      baselineId,\n      evidence,\n      reason:\n        `promote: paired holdout median Δ=${fmt(ci.median)} ` +\n        `CI=[${fmt(ci.low)}, ${fmt(ci.high)}] over ${productiveRuns} pairs; ` +\n        `overfit gap candidate=${fmt(overfitGap)} vs baseline=${fmt(baselineOverfitGap)}`,\n      rejectionCode: null,\n    }\n  }\n}\n\n// ── Helpers ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────\n\nfunction inferCandidateId(candidate: RunRecord[], baselineKey: string): string {\n  for (const run of candidate) {\n    if (run.candidateId && run.candidateId !== baselineKey) return run.candidateId\n  }\n  // All candidate rows match the baseline key — caller mistake, but\n  // surface the symptom rather than throwing inside the gate.\n  return candidate[0]?.candidateId ?? '(unknown candidate)'\n}\n\nfunction indexHoldoutByKey(runs: RunRecord[]): Map<string, number> {\n  const out = new Map<string, number>()\n  for (const r of runs) {\n    if (r.splitTag !== 'holdout') continue\n    if (r.outcome.holdoutScore === undefined) continue\n    out.set(pairKey(r), r.outcome.holdoutScore)\n  }\n  return out\n}\n\nfunction pairKey(r: RunRecord): string {\n  return `${r.experimentId}::${r.seed}`\n}\n\nfunction scores(\n  runs: RunRecord[],\n  field: 'searchScore' | 'holdoutScore',\n  splitFilter: 'search' | 'holdout',\n): number[] {\n  const out: number[] = []\n  for (const r of runs) {\n    if (r.splitTag !== splitFilter) continue\n    const v = r.outcome[field]\n    if (typeof v === 'number' && Number.isFinite(v)) out.push(v)\n  }\n  return out\n}\n\nfunction mean(xs: number[]): number {\n  if (xs.length === 0) return Number.NaN\n  return xs.reduce((s, x) => s + x, 0) / xs.length\n}\n\nfunction safeDiff(a: number, b: number): number {\n  if (!Number.isFinite(a) || !Number.isFinite(b)) return Number.NaN\n  return a - b\n}\n\nfunction medianDelta(before: number[], after: number[]): number {\n  const ds = before.map((b, i) => after[i]! - b).sort((x, y) => x - y)\n  if (ds.length === 0) return 0\n  const mid = Math.floor(ds.length / 2)\n  return ds.length % 2 === 0 ? (ds[mid - 1]! + ds[mid]!) / 2 : ds[mid]!\n}\n\nfunction fmt(x: number): string {\n  if (!Number.isFinite(x)) return String(x)\n  return x.toFixed(4)\n}\n","/**\n * Pareto frontier — multi-objective optimization over candidate runs.\n *\n * Lifted from ADC pareto.ts and blueprint-agent frontier.ts. When you're\n * trading off (cost, latency, quality) or (passRate, tokenBudget,\n * ttfb), you rarely have a single \"winner\" — you have a set of\n * non-dominated candidates. This module exposes:\n *\n *   - `paretoFrontier`: filter a set of candidates to the non-dominated ones\n *   - `dominates`: does A dominate B across all objectives?\n *\n * Each objective is declared with a direction: 'maximize' (higher=better)\n * or 'minimize' (lower=better). Candidates are any object; pass an\n * `objective(candidate)` accessor.\n */\n\nexport type Direction = 'maximize' | 'minimize'\n\nexport interface Objective<T> {\n  /** Stable label used in reports. */\n  name: string\n  direction: Direction\n  value: (candidate: T) => number\n}\n\nexport interface ParetoResult<T> {\n  frontier: T[]\n  dominated: T[]\n  /** Index map: frontier[i] dominates each of dominatedBy[i]. */\n  dominanceMap: Array<{ dominator: T; dominated: T[] }>\n}\n\n/** Does candidate A weakly dominate B — strictly better on at least one objective and no worse on any? */\nexport function dominates<T>(a: T, b: T, objectives: Objective<T>[]): boolean {\n  let strictlyBetter = false\n  for (const obj of objectives) {\n    const av = obj.value(a)\n    const bv = obj.value(b)\n    if (!Number.isFinite(av) || !Number.isFinite(bv)) return false\n    const aIsBetter = obj.direction === 'maximize' ? av > bv : av < bv\n    const aIsWorse = obj.direction === 'maximize' ? av < bv : av > bv\n    if (aIsWorse) return false\n    if (aIsBetter) strictlyBetter = true\n  }\n  return strictlyBetter\n}\n\n/**\n * Compute the non-dominated frontier. Candidates with NaN/Infinity on any\n * objective are excluded (can't rank them). A candidate enters the frontier\n * iff no other candidate dominates it.\n */\nexport function paretoFrontier<T>(candidates: T[], objectives: Objective<T>[]): ParetoResult<T> {\n  if (objectives.length === 0) {\n    throw new Error('paretoFrontier: at least 1 objective required')\n  }\n  const valid = candidates.filter((c) => objectives.every((o) => Number.isFinite(o.value(c))))\n  const frontier: T[] = []\n  const dominated: T[] = []\n  for (const c of valid) {\n    const isDominated = valid.some((other) => other !== c && dominates(other, c, objectives))\n    if (isDominated) dominated.push(c)\n    else frontier.push(c)\n  }\n  const dominanceMap = frontier.map((d) => ({\n    dominator: d,\n    dominated: dominated.filter((x) => dominates(d, x, objectives)),\n  }))\n  return { frontier, dominated, dominanceMap }\n}\n\n/**\n * Weighted-sum scalarisation. Use as a tie-break / single-winner selector\n * when callers don't want to consume a frontier. Each objective contributes\n * its normalised value (0..1 via min-max across the candidate pool) times\n * its weight; missing weights default to 1/N.\n *\n * Direction is honoured automatically — `minimize` axes have their values\n * inverted before scaling so \"higher scalar = better\" always holds.\n */\nexport function scalarScore<T>(\n  candidates: T[],\n  objectives: Objective<T>[],\n  options: { weights?: Partial<Record<string, number>> } = {},\n): Array<{ candidate: T; score: number }> {\n  if (candidates.length === 0) return []\n  const weights = options.weights ?? {}\n  const totalWeight = objectives.reduce((s, o) => s + (weights[o.name] ?? 1), 0)\n\n  // Pre-compute min/max per objective for normalisation.\n  const ranges = objectives.map((obj) => {\n    const values = candidates.map((c) => obj.value(c)).filter((v) => Number.isFinite(v))\n    if (values.length === 0) return { min: 0, max: 1 }\n    const min = Math.min(...values)\n    const max = Math.max(...values)\n    return { min, max: max === min ? min + 1 : max }\n  })\n\n  return candidates.map((c) => {\n    let score = 0\n    objectives.forEach((obj, i) => {\n      const v = obj.value(c)\n      if (!Number.isFinite(v)) return\n      const { min, max } = ranges[i]!\n      const normalised = (v - min) / (max - min)\n      const directional = obj.direction === 'maximize' ? normalised : 1 - normalised\n      const weight = (weights[obj.name] ?? 1) / totalWeight\n      score += directional * weight\n    })\n    return { candidate: c, score }\n  })\n}\n\n/**\n * NSGA-II crowding distance — secondary sort for ties on the frontier.\n *\n * When the Pareto front collapses to a single point (or many candidates tie\n * on dominance), naive selection picks arbitrarily and the population\n * degenerates over generations. NSGA-II preserves diversity by preferring\n * candidates with more empty space around them on the frontier.\n *\n * Returns an array of `{ candidate, distance }` in the SAME order as the\n * input. Higher distance = more isolated = should be preferred when\n * preserving diversity.\n */\nexport function crowdingDistance<T>(\n  candidates: T[],\n  objectives: Objective<T>[],\n): Array<{ candidate: T; distance: number }> {\n  const distances = new Map<T, number>(candidates.map((c) => [c, 0]))\n\n  for (const obj of objectives) {\n    const sorted = [...candidates].sort((a, b) => obj.value(a) - obj.value(b))\n    const min = obj.value(sorted[0]!)\n    const max = obj.value(sorted[sorted.length - 1]!)\n    const range = max - min || 1\n\n    // Boundary points get infinity (always preferred for diversity).\n    distances.set(sorted[0]!, Infinity)\n    distances.set(sorted[sorted.length - 1]!, Infinity)\n    for (let i = 1; i < sorted.length - 1; i++) {\n      const prev = obj.value(sorted[i - 1]!)\n      const next = obj.value(sorted[i + 1]!)\n      const current = distances.get(sorted[i]!)!\n      if (current === Infinity) continue\n      distances.set(sorted[i]!, current + (next - prev) / range)\n    }\n  }\n\n  return candidates.map((c) => ({ candidate: c, distance: distances.get(c) ?? 0 }))\n}\n\n/**\n * Pareto frontier with tie-break by crowding distance — the canonical\n * NSGA-II selection step. Returns the frontier sorted by descending crowding\n * distance so callers can `.slice(0, k)` to pick K diverse winners.\n */\nexport function paretoFrontierWithCrowding<T>(\n  candidates: T[],\n  objectives: Objective<T>[],\n): Array<{ candidate: T; distance: number }> {\n  const { frontier } = paretoFrontier(candidates, objectives)\n  if (frontier.length === 0) return []\n  const distances = crowdingDistance(frontier, objectives)\n  return distances.sort((a, b) => b.distance - a.distance)\n}\n","/**\n * PromptEvolutionLoop — population-based reflective-mutation evolution.\n *\n * Above the existing `AxGepaSteeringOptimizer` (which RANKS variants),\n * this loop GENERATES variants. Each generation:\n *   1. Score the population across (variant × scenario × rep).\n *   2. Pick survivors from the Pareto frontier (with crowding-distance tie-break).\n *   3. Ask the mutator for replacements until population size is restored.\n *   4. Repeat for N generations OR until convergence.\n *\n * Domain-agnostic. Consumers supply:\n *   - A seed population of `EvolvableVariant`s.\n *   - A `ScoreAdapter` that runs (variant, scenario, rep) → `TrialResult`.\n *   - A `MutateAdapter` that produces children given trace evidence.\n *   - Pareto `Objective<TrialAggregate>[]` defining the multi-objective vector.\n *\n * The loop owns: population management, parallel scheduling (concurrency-\n * limited), Pareto selection with crowding distance, generation reporting.\n *\n * It does NOT own: rendering trials to a model, executing prompts, choosing\n * mutation primitives, persisting to disk. Those are the consumer's call.\n */\n\nimport { type Objective, paretoFrontierWithCrowding, scalarScore } from './pareto'\n\nexport interface EvolvableVariant<P = unknown> {\n  /** Stable id for the variant — surfaces in reports and trial results. */\n  id: string\n  /** Variant payload — interpretation is the consumer's responsibility. */\n  payload: P\n  /** Generation index (0 = seed, then 1, 2, ...). */\n  generation: number\n  /** Parent variant id when produced via mutation; absent for seeds. */\n  parentId?: string\n  /** Human label for reports. */\n  label: string\n  /** What the mutator was trying to fix. */\n  rationale?: string\n}\n\nexport interface TrialResult {\n  variantId: string\n  scenarioId: string\n  rep: number\n  ok: boolean\n  /** Primary scalar score the consumer cares about (e.g., recall, accuracy). */\n  score: number\n  /** Token cost (or any cost-like dimension). */\n  cost?: number\n  /** Wall time in ms. */\n  durationMs?: number\n  /** Free-form metric bag for objective accessors. */\n  metrics?: Record<string, number>\n  error?: string\n  /**\n   * Whether the judge LLM call(s) that produced this trial's score actually\n   * completed. `undefined` means \"consumer didn't report\"; `false` means\n   * the judge aborted/failed and the score is synthetic (typically 0 or\n   * partial). `aggregateTrials({mode: 'exclude-failed'})` skips these\n   * trials so a silent-zero judge can't pollute the composite.\n   */\n  judgeSucceeded?: boolean\n  /** Number of judge attempts (informational, populated by `withJudgeRetry`). */\n  judgeAttempts?: number\n  /** Last judge error message when `judgeSucceeded === false`. */\n  judgeError?: string\n}\n\n/** Aggregated trial summary for one (variant, scenario) pair across reps. */\nexport interface ScenarioAggregate {\n  variantId: string\n  scenarioId: string\n  meanScore: number\n  meanCost: number\n  meanDurationMs: number\n  okRate: number\n  trials: number\n  /** Mean of every numeric metric across reps. */\n  metrics: Record<string, number>\n}\n\n/** Aggregated trial summary for one variant across all scenarios. */\nexport interface VariantAggregate {\n  variantId: string\n  meanScore: number\n  meanCost: number\n  meanDurationMs: number\n  okRate: number\n  scenarios: ScenarioAggregate[]\n  /** Mean of every numeric metric, averaged across scenarios. */\n  metrics: Record<string, number>\n}\n\nexport interface ScoreAdapter<P = unknown> {\n  score(args: {\n    variant: EvolvableVariant<P>\n    scenarioId: string\n    rep: number\n  }): Promise<TrialResult>\n}\n\nexport interface MutateAdapter<P = unknown> {\n  mutate(args: {\n    parent: EvolvableVariant<P>\n    parentAggregate: VariantAggregate\n    topTrials: TrialResult[]\n    bottomTrials: TrialResult[]\n    childCount: number\n    generation: number\n  }): Promise<EvolvableVariant<P>[]>\n}\n\nexport interface PromptEvolutionConfig<P = unknown> {\n  runId: string\n  /** What component is being mutated — surfaces in reports + reflection prompts. */\n  target: string\n  seedVariants: EvolvableVariant<P>[]\n  scenarioIds: string[]\n  reps: number\n  generations: number\n  populationSize: number\n  /** Maximum concurrent score() calls. */\n  scoreConcurrency: number\n  scoreAdapter: ScoreAdapter<P>\n  mutateAdapter: MutateAdapter<P>\n  /** Pareto objectives over `VariantAggregate`. Ordered by importance. */\n  objectives: Objective<VariantAggregate>[]\n  /** Optional weights for the scalar tie-break selector (by objective name). */\n  scalarWeights?: Record<string, number>\n  /** Stop early if a generation produces no Pareto improvement. Default true. */\n  earlyStopOnNoImprovement?: boolean\n  onProgress?: (event: PromptEvolutionEvent) => void\n  /**\n   * Optional cache key for memoising scored (variantId, scenarioId, rep)\n   * tuples. When provided AND a cache instance is passed, repeated trials\n   * skip re-scoring. Cache keys are stable across runs.\n   */\n  cache?: TrialCache\n}\n\nexport interface TrialCache {\n  get(key: string): TrialResult | undefined\n  set(key: string, value: TrialResult): void\n}\n\nexport class InMemoryTrialCache implements TrialCache {\n  private store = new Map<string, TrialResult>()\n  get(key: string): TrialResult | undefined {\n    return this.store.get(key)\n  }\n  set(key: string, value: TrialResult): void {\n    this.store.set(key, value)\n  }\n  size(): number {\n    return this.store.size\n  }\n  clear(): void {\n    this.store.clear()\n  }\n}\n\nexport type PromptEvolutionEvent =\n  | { type: 'generation-start'; generation: number; populationSize: number }\n  | {\n      type: 'trial-complete'\n      generation: number\n      variantId: string\n      scenarioId: string\n      rep: number\n      ok: boolean\n      score: number\n      cached: boolean\n    }\n  | { type: 'generation-complete'; report: GenerationReport<unknown> }\n  | { type: 'converged'; generation: number; reason: string }\n\nexport interface GenerationReport<P = unknown> {\n  runId: string\n  target: string\n  generation: number\n  variants: EvolvableVariant<P>[]\n  aggregates: VariantAggregate[]\n  /** Frontier candidates, sorted by descending crowding distance. */\n  paretoFrontIds: string[]\n  /** Scalar-best variant id — used for the single \"winner\" if callers want one. */\n  winnerId: string\n  /** Trials that fed this generation (kept for downstream reporting). */\n  trials: TrialResult[]\n}\n\nexport interface PromptEvolutionResult<P = unknown> {\n  runId: string\n  target: string\n  generations: GenerationReport<P>[]\n  /** Best variant by scalar score in the final generation. */\n  bestVariant: EvolvableVariant<P>\n  /** Best aggregate (matches bestVariant). */\n  bestAggregate: VariantAggregate\n}\n\nexport async function runPromptEvolution<P>(\n  config: PromptEvolutionConfig<P>,\n): Promise<PromptEvolutionResult<P>> {\n  const generations: GenerationReport<P>[] = []\n  let population = [...config.seedVariants]\n  let bestVariant: EvolvableVariant<P> = population[0]!\n  let bestAggregate: VariantAggregate | null = null\n\n  for (let generation = 0; generation < config.generations; generation++) {\n    config.onProgress?.({ type: 'generation-start', generation, populationSize: population.length })\n\n    const trials = await scorePopulation(population, config, generation)\n    const aggregates = aggregateTrials(population, config.scenarioIds, trials)\n\n    const front = paretoFrontierWithCrowding(aggregates, config.objectives)\n    const frontIds = new Set(front.map((c) => c.candidate.variantId))\n\n    const scored = scalarScore(aggregates, config.objectives, { weights: config.scalarWeights })\n    scored.sort((a, b) => b.score - a.score)\n    const winnerId = scored[0]?.candidate.variantId ?? aggregates[0]?.variantId ?? population[0]!.id\n\n    const report: GenerationReport<P> = {\n      runId: config.runId,\n      target: config.target,\n      generation,\n      variants: population,\n      aggregates,\n      paretoFrontIds: front.map((c) => c.candidate.variantId),\n      winnerId,\n      trials,\n    }\n    generations.push(report)\n    config.onProgress?.({ type: 'generation-complete', report })\n\n    const winnerAgg = aggregates.find((a) => a.variantId === winnerId)\n    if (winnerAgg) {\n      const winner = population.find((v) => v.id === winnerId)\n      if (winner) bestVariant = winner\n      bestAggregate = winnerAgg\n    }\n\n    // Convergence: no Pareto-or-scalar improvement vs previous generation.\n    if (config.earlyStopOnNoImprovement !== false && generations.length >= 2) {\n      const prev = generations[generations.length - 2]!\n      const noChange =\n        prev.winnerId === winnerId && samePopulation(prev.paretoFrontIds, [...frontIds])\n      if (noChange) {\n        config.onProgress?.({\n          type: 'converged',\n          generation,\n          reason: 'no improvement vs previous generation',\n        })\n        break\n      }\n    }\n\n    if (generation === config.generations - 1) break\n\n    population = await nextPopulation(population, aggregates, trials, front, config, generation + 1)\n  }\n\n  return {\n    runId: config.runId,\n    target: config.target,\n    generations,\n    bestVariant,\n    bestAggregate:\n      bestAggregate ??\n      aggregateTrials(population, config.scenarioIds, []).find(\n        (a) => a.variantId === bestVariant.id,\n      )!,\n  }\n}\n\nasync function scorePopulation<P>(\n  population: EvolvableVariant<P>[],\n  config: PromptEvolutionConfig<P>,\n  generation: number,\n): Promise<TrialResult[]> {\n  const jobs: Array<() => Promise<TrialResult>> = []\n  for (const variant of population) {\n    for (const scenarioId of config.scenarioIds) {\n      for (let rep = 0; rep < config.reps; rep++) {\n        jobs.push(async () => {\n          const cacheKey = `${variant.id}|${scenarioId}|${rep}`\n          const cached = config.cache?.get(cacheKey)\n          if (cached) {\n            config.onProgress?.({\n              type: 'trial-complete',\n              generation,\n              variantId: variant.id,\n              scenarioId,\n              rep,\n              ok: cached.ok,\n              score: cached.score,\n              cached: true,\n            })\n            return cached\n          }\n          const result = await config.scoreAdapter.score({ variant, scenarioId, rep })\n          config.cache?.set(cacheKey, result)\n          config.onProgress?.({\n            type: 'trial-complete',\n            generation,\n            variantId: variant.id,\n            scenarioId,\n            rep,\n            ok: result.ok,\n            score: result.score,\n            cached: false,\n          })\n          return result\n        })\n      }\n    }\n  }\n  return runWithConcurrency(jobs, config.scoreConcurrency)\n}\n\nasync function runWithConcurrency<T>(\n  jobs: Array<() => Promise<T>>,\n  concurrency: number,\n): Promise<T[]> {\n  const results: T[] = new Array(jobs.length)\n  const limit = Math.max(1, concurrency)\n  let next = 0\n  async function worker(): Promise<void> {\n    while (true) {\n      const i = next++\n      if (i >= jobs.length) return\n      results[i] = await jobs[i]!()\n    }\n  }\n  await Promise.all(Array.from({ length: limit }, () => worker()))\n  return results\n}\n\nfunction aggregateTrials<P>(\n  population: EvolvableVariant<P>[],\n  scenarioIds: string[],\n  trials: TrialResult[],\n): VariantAggregate[] {\n  return population.map((variant) => {\n    const variantTrials = trials.filter((t) => t.variantId === variant.id)\n    const scenarios = scenarioIds.map<ScenarioAggregate>((sid) => {\n      const scenarioTrials = variantTrials.filter((t) => t.scenarioId === sid)\n      const okTrials = scenarioTrials.filter((t) => t.ok)\n      // Mean score must include every successfully-graded trial — a trial\n      // with score=0.6 and ok=false (below quality_bar) is real signal, not\n      // noise. Only `error` trials (agent crash, judge crash) carry a\n      // synthetic score and are excluded. okRate continues to reflect the\n      // pass/fail rate against the configured quality_bar.\n      const gradedTrials = scenarioTrials.filter((t) => !t.error)\n      const metrics = aggregateMetrics(gradedTrials.map((t) => t.metrics ?? {}))\n      return {\n        variantId: variant.id,\n        scenarioId: sid,\n        meanScore: mean(gradedTrials.map((t) => t.score)),\n        meanCost: mean(gradedTrials.map((t) => t.cost ?? 0)),\n        meanDurationMs: mean(gradedTrials.map((t) => t.durationMs ?? 0)),\n        okRate: scenarioTrials.length === 0 ? 0 : okTrials.length / scenarioTrials.length,\n        trials: scenarioTrials.length,\n        metrics,\n      }\n    })\n    return {\n      variantId: variant.id,\n      meanScore: mean(scenarios.map((s) => s.meanScore)),\n      meanCost: mean(scenarios.map((s) => s.meanCost)),\n      meanDurationMs: mean(scenarios.map((s) => s.meanDurationMs)),\n      okRate: mean(scenarios.map((s) => s.okRate)),\n      scenarios,\n      metrics: aggregateMetrics(scenarios.map((s) => s.metrics)),\n    }\n  })\n}\n\nfunction aggregateMetrics(rows: Array<Record<string, number>>): Record<string, number> {\n  const buckets = new Map<string, number[]>()\n  for (const row of rows) {\n    for (const [k, v] of Object.entries(row)) {\n      if (!Number.isFinite(v)) continue\n      const list = buckets.get(k) ?? []\n      list.push(v)\n      buckets.set(k, list)\n    }\n  }\n  const out: Record<string, number> = {}\n  for (const [k, list] of buckets) out[k] = mean(list)\n  return out\n}\n\nfunction mean(xs: number[]): number {\n  if (xs.length === 0) return 0\n  return xs.reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0) / xs.length\n}\n\nasync function nextPopulation<P>(\n  current: EvolvableVariant<P>[],\n  aggregates: VariantAggregate[],\n  trials: TrialResult[],\n  front: Array<{ candidate: VariantAggregate; distance: number }>,\n  config: PromptEvolutionConfig<P>,\n  nextGeneration: number,\n): Promise<EvolvableVariant<P>[]> {\n  const survivorIds = new Set(front.map((c) => c.candidate.variantId))\n  const survivors = current.filter((v) => survivorIds.has(v.id))\n\n  // Pick the best survivor (by scalar) as the mutation parent.\n  const ranked = scalarScore(aggregates, config.objectives, { weights: config.scalarWeights }).sort(\n    (a, b) => b.score - a.score,\n  )\n  const parentId = ranked[0]?.candidate.variantId ?? current[0]!.id\n  const parent = current.find((v) => v.id === parentId) ?? current[0]!\n  const parentAggregate = aggregates.find((a) => a.variantId === parent.id) ?? aggregates[0]!\n\n  const topTrials = topKTrialsByScore(trials, parent.id, 3)\n  const bottomTrials = bottomKTrialsByScore(trials, parent.id, 3)\n  const childCount = Math.max(0, config.populationSize - survivors.length)\n  let children: EvolvableVariant<P>[] = []\n  if (childCount > 0) {\n    children = await config.mutateAdapter.mutate({\n      parent,\n      parentAggregate,\n      topTrials,\n      bottomTrials,\n      childCount,\n      generation: nextGeneration,\n    })\n    children = children\n      .slice(0, childCount)\n      .map((c) => ({ ...c, generation: nextGeneration, parentId: parent.id }))\n  }\n  return [...survivors, ...children]\n}\n\nfunction topKTrialsByScore(trials: TrialResult[], variantId: string, k: number): TrialResult[] {\n  return trials\n    .filter((t) => t.variantId === variantId && t.ok)\n    .sort((a, b) => b.score - a.score)\n    .slice(0, k)\n}\n\nfunction bottomKTrialsByScore(trials: TrialResult[], variantId: string, k: number): TrialResult[] {\n  return trials\n    .filter((t) => t.variantId === variantId && t.ok)\n    .sort((a, b) => a.score - b.score)\n    .slice(0, k)\n}\n\nfunction samePopulation(a: string[], b: string[]): boolean {\n  if (a.length !== b.length) return false\n  const setA = new Set(a)\n  return b.every((id) => setA.has(id))\n}\n","/**\n * Multi-shot optimization adapter.\n *\n * This is the canonical bridge between variable-length agent trajectories\n * and `runPromptEvolution`. Apps provide four things:\n *\n *   - variants: prompt/config/tool-policy candidates\n *   - runner: executes one full task trajectory for a variant\n *   - scorer: turns that trajectory into score + actionable side information\n *   - mutator: proposes new variants from top/bottom scored trials\n *\n * The adapter owns the boring but easy-to-get-wrong glue: stable seeds,\n * score/cost objectives, error-to-trial conversion, ASI metric projection,\n * and optional paired holdout gating via `HeldOutGate`.\n */\n\nimport { type GateDecision, HeldOutGate, type HeldOutGateConfig } from './held-out-gate'\nimport type { Objective } from './pareto'\nimport {\n  type EvolvableVariant,\n  type PromptEvolutionEvent,\n  type PromptEvolutionResult,\n  runPromptEvolution,\n  type ScoreAdapter,\n  type TrialCache,\n  type TrialResult,\n  type VariantAggregate,\n} from './prompt-evolution'\nimport type { TrialTrace } from './reflective-mutation'\nimport { type RunRecord, type RunSplitTag, validateRunRecord } from './run-record'\n\nexport type MultiShotSplit = 'search' | 'dev' | 'holdout'\n\nexport type AsiSeverity = 'info' | 'warning' | 'error' | 'critical'\n\nexport type MultiShotVariant<P = unknown> = EvolvableVariant<P>\n\nexport interface ActionableSideInfo {\n  /** Stable expectation/check id when available. */\n  expectationId?: string\n  /** Human-readable diagnosis of what happened. */\n  message: string\n  severity?: AsiSeverity\n  /** Concrete trace excerpt, file path, tool call, screenshot id, etc. */\n  evidence?: string\n  /** Prompt/tool/context surface likely responsible. */\n  responsibleSurface?: string\n  /** Suggested fix in natural language. */\n  suggestion?: string\n  /** Whether this expectation was satisfied. Defaults to false for ASI rows. */\n  matched?: boolean\n  metadata?: Record<string, unknown>\n}\n\nexport interface MultiShotTrace {\n  scenarioId: string\n  /** Full turn/tool trace. Shape is intentionally app-owned. */\n  turns?: unknown[]\n  toolCalls?: unknown[]\n  artifacts?: unknown[]\n  /** Compact final output or summary used by reflection prompts. */\n  transcript?: string\n  output?: unknown\n  metadata?: Record<string, unknown>\n}\n\nexport interface MultiShotRun {\n  trace: MultiShotTrace\n  costUsd?: number\n  durationMs?: number\n  tokenUsage?: { input?: number; output?: number; cached?: number }\n  metadata?: Record<string, unknown>\n}\n\nexport interface MultiShotRunInput<P = unknown> {\n  variant: EvolvableVariant<P>\n  scenarioId: string\n  rep: number\n  split: MultiShotSplit\n  /** Stable paired seed for baseline/candidate comparisons. */\n  seed: number\n}\n\nexport interface MultiShotRunner<P = unknown> {\n  run(input: MultiShotRunInput<P>): Promise<MultiShotRun> | MultiShotRun\n}\n\nexport interface MultiShotScore {\n  /** Primary score in [0,1]. The adapter clamps for safety. */\n  score: number\n  /** Pass/fail for top/bottom trial selection. Defaults to true. */\n  ok?: boolean\n  costUsd?: number\n  durationMs?: number\n  metrics?: Record<string, number>\n  asi?: ActionableSideInfo[]\n  /** Optional rich output shown to reflection mutators. */\n  emitted?: string\n  metadata?: Record<string, unknown>\n}\n\nexport interface MultiShotScorer<P = unknown> {\n  score(\n    input: MultiShotRunInput<P> & { run: MultiShotRun },\n  ): Promise<MultiShotScore> | MultiShotScore\n}\n\nexport interface MultiShotTrialResult extends TrialResult {\n  split: MultiShotSplit\n  seed: number\n  trace?: MultiShotTrace\n  asi?: ActionableSideInfo[]\n  emitted?: string\n  metadata?: Record<string, unknown>\n}\n\nexport interface MultiShotMutateAdapter<P = unknown> {\n  mutate(args: {\n    parent: EvolvableVariant<P>\n    parentAggregate: VariantAggregate\n    topTrials: MultiShotTrialResult[]\n    bottomTrials: MultiShotTrialResult[]\n    childCount: number\n    generation: number\n  }): Promise<EvolvableVariant<P>[]>\n}\n\nexport interface MultiShotGateConfig<P = unknown> {\n  /** Search rows are optional, but enable HeldOutGate's overfit-gap check. */\n  searchScenarioIds?: string[]\n  holdoutScenarioIds: string[]\n  reps?: number\n  gate: HeldOutGateConfig\n  /** Convert scored trajectory runs into paper-grade RunRecords. */\n  toRunRecord(input: {\n    variant: EvolvableVariant<P>\n    scenarioId: string\n    rep: number\n    split: RunSplitTag\n    seed: number\n    trial: MultiShotTrialResult\n  }): RunRecord\n}\n\nexport interface MultiShotOptimizationConfig<P = unknown> {\n  runId: string\n  target: string\n  seedVariants: EvolvableVariant<P>[]\n  searchScenarioIds: string[]\n  reps: number\n  generations: number\n  populationSize: number\n  scoreConcurrency?: number\n  runner: MultiShotRunner<P>\n  scorer: MultiShotScorer<P>\n  mutateAdapter: MultiShotMutateAdapter<P>\n  objectives?: Objective<VariantAggregate>[]\n  scalarWeights?: Record<string, number>\n  cache?: TrialCache\n  earlyStopOnNoImprovement?: boolean\n  seedBase?: number\n  onProgress?: (event: PromptEvolutionEvent) => void\n  gate?: MultiShotGateConfig<P>\n}\n\nexport interface MultiShotGateResult {\n  decision: GateDecision\n  candidateRuns: RunRecord[]\n  baselineRuns: RunRecord[]\n}\n\nexport interface MultiShotOptimizationResult<P = unknown> {\n  evolution: PromptEvolutionResult<P>\n  /** Best candidate on the optimizer-visible search split. */\n  searchBestVariant: EvolvableVariant<P>\n  searchBestAggregate: VariantAggregate\n  /** Variant callers should actually ship after optional holdout gating. */\n  promotedVariant: EvolvableVariant<P>\n  promotedAggregate: VariantAggregate\n  /** Null when no gate was configured or the search-best candidate was the baseline. */\n  gate: MultiShotGateResult | null\n}\n\nexport async function runMultiShotOptimization<P>(\n  config: MultiShotOptimizationConfig<P>,\n): Promise<MultiShotOptimizationResult<P>> {\n  validateConfig(config)\n\n  const scoreAdapter: ScoreAdapter<P> = {\n    score: (args) => scoreOne(config, args.variant, args.scenarioId, args.rep, 'search'),\n  }\n\n  const evolution = await runPromptEvolution<P>({\n    runId: config.runId,\n    target: config.target,\n    seedVariants: config.seedVariants,\n    scenarioIds: config.searchScenarioIds,\n    reps: config.reps,\n    generations: config.generations,\n    populationSize: config.populationSize,\n    scoreConcurrency: config.scoreConcurrency ?? 1,\n    scoreAdapter,\n    mutateAdapter: {\n      mutate: (args) =>\n        config.mutateAdapter.mutate({\n          ...args,\n          topTrials: args.topTrials as MultiShotTrialResult[],\n          bottomTrials: args.bottomTrials as MultiShotTrialResult[],\n        }),\n    },\n    objectives: config.objectives ?? defaultMultiShotObjectives(),\n    scalarWeights: config.scalarWeights,\n    earlyStopOnNoImprovement: config.earlyStopOnNoImprovement,\n    cache: config.cache,\n    onProgress: config.onProgress,\n  })\n\n  let gate: MultiShotGateResult | null = null\n  const baseline = config.seedVariants[0]!\n  let promotedVariant = evolution.bestVariant\n  let promotedAggregate = evolution.bestAggregate\n  if (config.gate && evolution.bestVariant.id !== baseline.id) {\n    gate = await evaluateMultiShotGate(config, baseline, evolution.bestVariant)\n    if (!gate.decision.promote) {\n      promotedVariant = baseline\n      promotedAggregate = aggregateFor(evolution, baseline.id)\n    }\n  }\n\n  return {\n    evolution,\n    searchBestVariant: evolution.bestVariant,\n    searchBestAggregate: evolution.bestAggregate,\n    promotedVariant,\n    promotedAggregate,\n    gate,\n  }\n}\n\nexport function defaultMultiShotObjectives(): Objective<VariantAggregate>[] {\n  return [\n    { name: 'score', direction: 'maximize', value: (a) => a.meanScore },\n    { name: 'cost', direction: 'minimize', value: (a) => a.meanCost },\n  ]\n}\n\nexport function trialTraceFromMultiShotTrial(trial: MultiShotTrialResult): TrialTrace {\n  return {\n    id: `${trial.variantId}/${trial.scenarioId}/r${trial.rep}`,\n    score: trial.score,\n    inputName: trial.scenarioId,\n    expectations: (trial.asi ?? []).map((item, i) => ({\n      id: item.expectationId ?? `asi-${i}`,\n      phrase: item.message,\n      matched: item.matched ?? false,\n    })),\n    emitted: trial.emitted ?? traceExcerpt(trial.trace),\n    metrics: trial.metrics,\n  }\n}\n\nasync function evaluateMultiShotGate<P>(\n  config: MultiShotOptimizationConfig<P>,\n  baseline: EvolvableVariant<P>,\n  candidate: EvolvableVariant<P>,\n): Promise<MultiShotGateResult> {\n  const gateConfig = config.gate!\n  const reps = gateConfig.reps ?? config.reps\n  const candidateRuns: RunRecord[] = []\n  const baselineRuns: RunRecord[] = []\n\n  const searchIds = gateConfig.searchScenarioIds ?? config.searchScenarioIds\n  for (const scenarioId of searchIds) {\n    for (let rep = 0; rep < reps; rep++) {\n      const seed = seedFor(config, scenarioId, rep)\n      const baseTrial = await scoreOne(config, baseline, scenarioId, rep, 'search')\n      const candTrial = await scoreOne(config, candidate, scenarioId, rep, 'search')\n      baselineRuns.push(\n        toValidatedRecord(config, baseline, scenarioId, rep, 'search', seed, baseTrial),\n      )\n      candidateRuns.push(\n        toValidatedRecord(config, candidate, scenarioId, rep, 'search', seed, candTrial),\n      )\n    }\n  }\n\n  for (const scenarioId of gateConfig.holdoutScenarioIds) {\n    for (let rep = 0; rep < reps; rep++) {\n      const seed = seedFor(config, scenarioId, rep)\n      const baseTrial = await scoreOne(config, baseline, scenarioId, rep, 'holdout')\n      const candTrial = await scoreOne(config, candidate, scenarioId, rep, 'holdout')\n      baselineRuns.push(\n        toValidatedRecord(config, baseline, scenarioId, rep, 'holdout', seed, baseTrial),\n      )\n      candidateRuns.push(\n        toValidatedRecord(config, candidate, scenarioId, rep, 'holdout', seed, candTrial),\n      )\n    }\n  }\n\n  const decision = new HeldOutGate(gateConfig.gate).evaluate(candidateRuns, baselineRuns)\n  return { decision, candidateRuns, baselineRuns }\n}\n\nasync function scoreOne<P>(\n  config: MultiShotOptimizationConfig<P>,\n  variant: EvolvableVariant<P>,\n  scenarioId: string,\n  rep: number,\n  split: MultiShotSplit,\n): Promise<MultiShotTrialResult> {\n  const seed = seedFor(config, scenarioId, rep)\n  const input: MultiShotRunInput<P> = { variant, scenarioId, rep, split, seed }\n  try {\n    const run = await config.runner.run(input)\n    const scored = await config.scorer.score({ ...input, run })\n    const asi = scored.asi ?? []\n    return {\n      variantId: variant.id,\n      scenarioId,\n      rep,\n      ok: scored.ok ?? true,\n      score: clamp01(scored.score),\n      cost: scored.costUsd ?? run.costUsd ?? 0,\n      durationMs: scored.durationMs ?? run.durationMs ?? 0,\n      metrics: {\n        ...numericMetrics(scored.metrics),\n        ...asiMetrics(asi),\n      },\n      split,\n      seed,\n      trace: run.trace,\n      asi,\n      emitted: scored.emitted ?? traceExcerpt(run.trace),\n      metadata: scored.metadata,\n    }\n  } catch (err) {\n    return {\n      variantId: variant.id,\n      scenarioId,\n      rep,\n      ok: false,\n      score: 0,\n      cost: 0,\n      durationMs: 0,\n      metrics: { error: 1 },\n      error: err instanceof Error ? err.message : String(err),\n      split,\n      seed,\n      asi: [\n        {\n          severity: 'critical',\n          message: err instanceof Error ? err.message : String(err),\n          responsibleSurface: config.target,\n        },\n      ],\n      emitted: '',\n    }\n  }\n}\n\nfunction toValidatedRecord<P>(\n  config: MultiShotOptimizationConfig<P>,\n  variant: EvolvableVariant<P>,\n  scenarioId: string,\n  rep: number,\n  split: RunSplitTag,\n  seed: number,\n  trial: MultiShotTrialResult,\n): RunRecord {\n  const record = config.gate!.toRunRecord({ variant, scenarioId, rep, split, seed, trial })\n  return validateRunRecord(record)\n}\n\nfunction validateConfig<P>(config: MultiShotOptimizationConfig<P>): void {\n  if (!config.runId.trim()) throw new Error('runMultiShotOptimization: runId must not be empty')\n  if (!config.target.trim()) throw new Error('runMultiShotOptimization: target must not be empty')\n  if (config.seedVariants.length === 0) {\n    throw new Error('runMultiShotOptimization: seedVariants must not be empty')\n  }\n  if (config.searchScenarioIds.length === 0) {\n    throw new Error('runMultiShotOptimization: searchScenarioIds must not be empty')\n  }\n  requirePositiveInteger(config.reps, 'reps')\n  requirePositiveInteger(config.generations, 'generations')\n  requirePositiveInteger(config.populationSize, 'populationSize')\n  if (config.scoreConcurrency !== undefined)\n    requirePositiveInteger(config.scoreConcurrency, 'scoreConcurrency')\n  if (config.populationSize < config.seedVariants.length) {\n    throw new Error('runMultiShotOptimization: populationSize must be >= seedVariants.length')\n  }\n  assertUnique(\n    config.seedVariants.map((v) => v.id),\n    'seedVariants.id',\n  )\n  assertUnique(config.searchScenarioIds, 'searchScenarioIds')\n\n  if (config.gate) {\n    if (config.gate.holdoutScenarioIds.length === 0) {\n      throw new Error('runMultiShotOptimization: gate.holdoutScenarioIds must not be empty')\n    }\n    if (config.gate.reps !== undefined) requirePositiveInteger(config.gate.reps, 'gate.reps')\n    assertUnique(config.gate.holdoutScenarioIds, 'gate.holdoutScenarioIds')\n    if (config.gate.searchScenarioIds)\n      assertUnique(config.gate.searchScenarioIds, 'gate.searchScenarioIds')\n    const searchIds = new Set(config.searchScenarioIds)\n    for (const id of config.gate.holdoutScenarioIds) {\n      if (searchIds.has(id)) {\n        throw new Error(\n          `runMultiShotOptimization: holdout scenario \"${id}\" also appears in searchScenarioIds`,\n        )\n      }\n    }\n    const baselineId = config.seedVariants[0]!.id\n    if (config.gate.gate.baselineKey !== baselineId) {\n      throw new Error(\n        `runMultiShotOptimization: gate.gate.baselineKey must match first seed variant id \"${baselineId}\"`,\n      )\n    }\n  }\n}\n\nfunction requirePositiveInteger(value: number, name: string): void {\n  if (!Number.isInteger(value) || value <= 0) {\n    throw new Error(`runMultiShotOptimization: ${name} must be a positive integer`)\n  }\n}\n\nfunction assertUnique(values: string[], name: string): void {\n  const seen = new Set<string>()\n  for (const value of values) {\n    if (!value.trim())\n      throw new Error(`runMultiShotOptimization: ${name} must not contain empty values`)\n    if (seen.has(value)) throw new Error(`runMultiShotOptimization: duplicate ${name} \"${value}\"`)\n    seen.add(value)\n  }\n}\n\nfunction aggregateFor<P>(evolution: PromptEvolutionResult<P>, variantId: string): VariantAggregate {\n  const final = evolution.generations[evolution.generations.length - 1]\n  const aggregate = final?.aggregates.find((a) => a.variantId === variantId)\n  if (!aggregate) {\n    throw new Error(`runMultiShotOptimization: missing aggregate for variant \"${variantId}\"`)\n  }\n  return aggregate\n}\n\nfunction seedFor<P>(\n  config: MultiShotOptimizationConfig<P>,\n  scenarioId: string,\n  rep: number,\n): number {\n  const base = config.seedBase ?? 0\n  return (base + stableHash(`${scenarioId}\\x1f${rep}`)) % Number.MAX_SAFE_INTEGER\n}\n\nfunction stableHash(input: string): number {\n  let h = 2166136261\n  for (let i = 0; i < input.length; i++) {\n    h ^= input.charCodeAt(i)\n    h = Math.imul(h, 16777619)\n  }\n  return h >>> 0\n}\n\nfunction clamp01(n: number): number {\n  if (!Number.isFinite(n)) return 0\n  return Math.max(0, Math.min(1, n))\n}\n\nfunction numericMetrics(metrics: Record<string, number> | undefined): Record<string, number> {\n  const out: Record<string, number> = {}\n  for (const [k, v] of Object.entries(metrics ?? {})) {\n    if (Number.isFinite(v)) out[k] = v\n  }\n  return out\n}\n\nfunction asiMetrics(asi: ActionableSideInfo[]): Record<string, number> {\n  const out: Record<string, number> = { asi: asi.length }\n  for (const item of asi.slice(0, 1000)) {\n    const sev = normalizeSeverity(item.severity)\n    out[`asi.${sev}`] = (out[`asi.${sev}`] ?? 0) + 1\n    if (item.responsibleSurface) {\n      const key = `surface.${metricKeySegment(item.responsibleSurface)}`\n      out[key] = (out[key] ?? 0) + 1\n    }\n  }\n  return out\n}\n\nfunction normalizeSeverity(severity: AsiSeverity | undefined): AsiSeverity {\n  if (\n    severity === 'info' ||\n    severity === 'warning' ||\n    severity === 'error' ||\n    severity === 'critical'\n  ) {\n    return severity\n  }\n  return 'error'\n}\n\nfunction metricKeySegment(raw: string): string {\n  return (\n    raw\n      .trim()\n      .replace(/[^a-zA-Z0-9._-]+/g, '_')\n      .slice(0, 80) || 'unknown'\n  )\n}\n\nfunction traceExcerpt(trace: MultiShotTrace | undefined): string | undefined {\n  if (!trace) return undefined\n  if (typeof trace.output === 'string') return trace.output\n  if (trace.transcript) return trace.transcript\n  if (trace.turns) {\n    try {\n      const clipped = trace.turns.slice(0, 20)\n      const suffix =\n        trace.turns.length > clipped.length\n          ? ` ... ${trace.turns.length - clipped.length} more turn(s)`\n          : ''\n      return `${JSON.stringify(clipped).slice(0, 2000)}${suffix}`\n    } catch {\n      return '[unserializable trace turns]'\n    }\n  }\n  return undefined\n}\n","/**\n * Reflective mutation — primitives for trace-conditioned prompt rewriting.\n *\n * Used by `prompt-evolution.ts` (and any consumer running iterative\n * improvement). Given a parent prompt + concrete trace evidence (top trials,\n * bottom trials, missed expectations), produce an LLM-ready prompt that\n * proposes targeted mutations — not blind rephrasings.\n *\n * Why this lives outside `prompt-evolution.ts`: any consumer that wants to\n * run reflective rewriting WITHOUT the population/Pareto machinery can\n * import these primitives directly.\n *\n * Quality bar (vs. naive \"mutate this prompt\"):\n *   - Show parent ↔ children diff, not just one variant\n *   - Quote specific missed goldens with their match phrases\n *   - Surface the model's actual emitted output side-by-side with what was expected\n *   - Quote concrete mutation primitives so the model has a vocabulary\n */\n\nexport interface TrialTrace {\n  /** Stable id for the trial — surfaces in the prompt for grounding. */\n  id: string\n  /** Score the trial received on its primary metric. */\n  score: number\n  /** Candidate inputs the agent was given (e.g., the fixture or scenario). */\n  inputName?: string\n  /**\n   * Goldens / expectations this trial was tested against, with whether each\n   * was matched. The reflection prompt quotes the missed ones specifically.\n   */\n  expectations?: Array<{ id: string; phrase: string; matched: boolean }>\n  /** Free-form text — what the agent actually emitted (e.g., findings, plan). */\n  emitted?: string\n  /** Optional structured metrics (recall, precision, cost, latency). */\n  metrics?: Record<string, number>\n}\n\nexport interface ReflectionContext {\n  /** What is being mutated — appears in the system prompt for orientation. */\n  target: string\n  /** Current variant's payload — JSON-serialised for the prompt. */\n  parentPayload: unknown\n  /** Best-performing trials this generation. */\n  topTrials: TrialTrace[]\n  /** Worst-performing trials this generation — the missed-golden source. */\n  bottomTrials: TrialTrace[]\n  /** How many children the mutator should propose. */\n  childCount: number\n  /** Optional: domain-specific mutation primitives the model can pick from. */\n  mutationPrimitives?: string[]\n}\n\nexport const DEFAULT_MUTATION_PRIMITIVES: string[] = [\n  'Strengthen an imperative (\"should\" → \"must\")',\n  'Add a concrete example pulled from a missed-golden phrase',\n  'Remove a redundant rule that did not improve recall',\n  'Add a counterfactual (\"if X is missing, the score is capped at Y\")',\n  'Reorder sections so the highest-impact rule is first',\n  'Replace abstract language with a domain-specific noun the trial misses',\n]\n\n/**\n * Build the LLM-ready reflection prompt. Output is plain text — pass it as\n * the user message. The system message should be small and stable (e.g.\n * \"Output ONLY a JSON object matching the schema below.\").\n */\nexport function buildReflectionPrompt(ctx: ReflectionContext): string {\n  const primitives = ctx.mutationPrimitives ?? DEFAULT_MUTATION_PRIMITIVES\n  const sections: string[] = []\n\n  sections.push(`# Mutation target: ${ctx.target}`)\n  sections.push('')\n  sections.push(\n    `You are tuning the prompt component named \\`${ctx.target}\\`. The current variant is shown below; you have ${ctx.topTrials.length} top trials and ${ctx.bottomTrials.length} bottom trials as evidence. Propose ${ctx.childCount} mutation${ctx.childCount === 1 ? '' : 's'} that fix specific weaknesses visible in the bottom trials. Avoid blank rephrasings.`,\n  )\n  sections.push('')\n\n  sections.push('## Current variant')\n  sections.push('```json')\n  sections.push(JSON.stringify(ctx.parentPayload, null, 2))\n  sections.push('```')\n  sections.push('')\n\n  if (ctx.bottomTrials.length > 0) {\n    sections.push('## Failures (bottom trials) — what went wrong')\n    sections.push('')\n    for (const trial of ctx.bottomTrials) {\n      sections.push(\n        `### Trial \\`${trial.id}\\` — score ${trial.score.toFixed(2)}${trial.inputName ? ` (${trial.inputName})` : ''}`,\n      )\n      const missed = (trial.expectations ?? []).filter((e) => !e.matched)\n      if (missed.length > 0) {\n        sections.push('')\n        sections.push('**Missed expectations:**')\n        for (const m of missed) {\n          sections.push(`- \\`${m.id}\\`: should match phrase \\`${quote(m.phrase)}\\``)\n        }\n      }\n      if (trial.emitted) {\n        sections.push('')\n        sections.push('**What the agent emitted:**')\n        sections.push('```')\n        sections.push(truncate(trial.emitted, 600))\n        sections.push('```')\n      }\n      sections.push('')\n    }\n  }\n\n  if (ctx.topTrials.length > 0) {\n    sections.push('## Successes (top trials) — what to preserve')\n    sections.push('')\n    for (const trial of ctx.topTrials) {\n      sections.push(\n        `- \\`${trial.id}\\`: score ${trial.score.toFixed(2)}${trial.inputName ? ` (${trial.inputName})` : ''}`,\n      )\n    }\n    sections.push('')\n  }\n\n  sections.push('## Allowed mutation primitives')\n  sections.push('')\n  for (const p of primitives) sections.push(`- ${p}`)\n  sections.push('')\n\n  sections.push('## Output schema')\n  sections.push('')\n  sections.push('Respond with a JSON object — no prose, no markdown fences:')\n  sections.push('```json')\n  sections.push(\n    JSON.stringify(\n      {\n        proposals: [\n          {\n            label: '<short label, ≤ 40 chars>',\n            rationale: '<which failure this targets and which primitive you used>',\n            payload: '<full payload of the new variant — same shape as the current variant>',\n          },\n        ],\n      },\n      null,\n      2,\n    ),\n  )\n  sections.push('```')\n\n  return sections.join('\\n')\n}\n\nfunction truncate(s: string, max: number): string {\n  if (s.length <= max) return s\n  return `${s.slice(0, max)}… [truncated]`\n}\n\nfunction quote(s: string): string {\n  return s.replace(/`/g, '\\\\`')\n}\n\nexport interface ReflectionProposal {\n  label: string\n  rationale: string\n  payload: unknown\n}\n\n/**\n * Parse the model's JSON response back into proposals. Tolerates markdown\n * fences and surrounding prose. Returns at most `maxProposals`.\n */\n/**\n * Walk the input as JSON-aware (string vs not, escape-aware) and close\n * unclosed `{` / `[` in LIFO order at the tail. If the input was already\n * balanced returns it unchanged. If a string was open at end-of-input we\n * also close it with `\"` first, since a truncated string-mid-value is the\n * most common LLM cap-hit failure mode and JSON.parse cannot proceed\n * without one.\n *\n * Returns null when the structure is unrecoverable (e.g. depth would go\n * negative — that's an *over*-closed prefix, not a truncation).\n */\nfunction autoCloseTruncatedJson(raw: string): string | null {\n  const stack: Array<'{' | '['> = []\n  let inString = false\n  let escaped = false\n  for (const c of raw) {\n    if (escaped) {\n      escaped = false\n      continue\n    }\n    if (inString) {\n      if (c === '\\\\') {\n        escaped = true\n        continue\n      }\n      if (c === '\"') {\n        inString = false\n        continue\n      }\n      continue\n    }\n    if (c === '\"') {\n      inString = true\n      continue\n    }\n    if (c === '{' || c === '[') stack.push(c)\n    else if (c === '}') {\n      if (stack.pop() !== '{') return null\n    } else if (c === ']') {\n      if (stack.pop() !== '[') return null\n    }\n  }\n  if (stack.length === 0 && !inString) return raw\n  let suffix = ''\n  if (inString) suffix += '\"'\n  while (stack.length > 0) {\n    const opener = stack.pop()!\n    suffix += opener === '{' ? '}' : ']'\n  }\n  return raw + suffix\n}\n\nexport function parseReflectionResponse(raw: string, maxProposals?: number): ReflectionProposal[] {\n  let text = raw.trim()\n  if (text.startsWith('```')) text = text.replace(/^```(?:json)?\\n?/, '').replace(/\\n?```$/, '')\n\n  // Try to parse as either a JSON object `{proposals: [...]}` or a bare\n  // array `[...]`. LLMs frequently emit one or the other depending on how\n  // they read the schema example; accept both.\n  let parsed: unknown = null\n  const objectStart = text.indexOf('{')\n  const objectEnd = text.lastIndexOf('}')\n  const arrayStart = text.indexOf('[')\n  const arrayEnd = text.lastIndexOf(']')\n  // Prefer whichever delimiter comes first (the model committed to that shape).\n  const tryObjectFirst = objectStart >= 0 && (arrayStart < 0 || objectStart < arrayStart)\n  const candidates: string[] = []\n  if (tryObjectFirst) {\n    if (objectStart >= 0 && objectEnd > objectStart)\n      candidates.push(text.slice(objectStart, objectEnd + 1))\n    if (arrayStart >= 0 && arrayEnd > arrayStart)\n      candidates.push(text.slice(arrayStart, arrayEnd + 1))\n  } else {\n    if (arrayStart >= 0 && arrayEnd > arrayStart)\n      candidates.push(text.slice(arrayStart, arrayEnd + 1))\n    if (objectStart >= 0 && objectEnd > objectStart)\n      candidates.push(text.slice(objectStart, objectEnd + 1))\n  }\n  for (const slice of candidates) {\n    try {\n      parsed = JSON.parse(slice)\n      break\n    } catch {\n      // try next\n    }\n  }\n\n  // Truncation-tolerant fallback: LLMs frequently hit a max_tokens cap\n  // mid-emission, leaving N unclosed `}` / `]` at the tail. Close them in\n  // order from the deepest unclosed structure outward, by walking the\n  // candidate slice and tracking depth, then retrying JSON.parse. This\n  // recovers any complete proposals before the cutoff and drops the rest.\n  if (parsed == null) {\n    for (const slice of candidates) {\n      const closed = autoCloseTruncatedJson(slice)\n      if (closed != null && closed !== slice) {\n        try {\n          parsed = JSON.parse(closed)\n          break\n        } catch {\n          // give up on this candidate\n        }\n      }\n    }\n  }\n\n  if (parsed == null) return []\n\n  // Normalize: accept `{proposals: [...]}` or a bare array.\n  let proposalsRaw: unknown\n  if (Array.isArray(parsed)) {\n    proposalsRaw = parsed\n  } else if (parsed && typeof parsed === 'object') {\n    proposalsRaw = (parsed as { proposals?: unknown }).proposals\n  }\n  if (!Array.isArray(proposalsRaw)) return []\n\n  const out: ReflectionProposal[] = []\n  for (const p of proposalsRaw) {\n    if (!p || typeof p !== 'object') continue\n    const obj = p as { label?: unknown; rationale?: unknown; payload?: unknown }\n    if (!('payload' in obj)) continue\n    out.push({\n      label: typeof obj.label === 'string' ? obj.label : 'mutation',\n      rationale: typeof obj.rationale === 'string' ? obj.rationale : '',\n      payload: obj.payload,\n    })\n    if (maxProposals !== undefined && out.length >= maxProposals) break\n  }\n  return out\n}\n","/**\n * Researcher interface — stable hook for an external autonomous-research\n * agent to drive the meta-loop.\n *\n * Implementations live downstream (typically in a private repo that\n * runs the actual LLM). This package ships only the contract + a\n * `NoopResearcher` so consumers can wire the surface without being\n * forced to implement every method up front.\n *\n * The four methods mirror the four stages of the paper \"Two Loops,\n * Three Roles\":\n *\n *   inspectFailures   — given the observed runs, what failure modes\n *                       are present? (data → diagnosis)\n *   proposeChange     — given diagnosed failure modes, what\n *                       structural changes should we try?\n *                       (diagnosis → plan delta)\n *   applyChange       — fold the proposed deltas into a concrete\n *                       experiment plan against an existing baseline.\n *                       (plan delta → executable plan)\n *   evaluateChange    — run the plan, return runs + the gate verdict.\n *                       (executable plan → verdict)\n *\n * Composition is the discipline: a Researcher implementation MUST\n * keep these four steps separate and inspectable. Conflating\n * \"diagnose + propose + run\" into a single LLM call defeats the\n * point of the framework — you can't audit which step lied.\n *\n * THIS INTERFACE IS STABLE. Breaking changes require a new module\n * (e.g. `Researcher2`) so existing implementations keep working.\n */\n\nimport type { GateDecision } from './held-out-gate'\nimport type { RunRecord, RunSplitTag } from './run-record'\n\n/** A diagnosed failure mode with the run-IDs that exhibit it. */\nexport interface FailureMode {\n  /** Short machine-readable code. Must be stable across runs of the\n   *  same researcher to enable longitudinal tracking. */\n  code: string\n  /** Human-readable description for the paper / dashboard. */\n  description: string\n  evidence: {\n    /** Run IDs (from `RunRecord.runId`) where this failure mode was\n     *  observed. */\n    runIds: string[]\n    /** Number of run samples that informed the diagnosis. */\n    samples: number\n  }\n}\n\n/** A single steering change the researcher wants to try. */\nexport interface SteeringChange {\n  kind: 'reviewer_prompt' | 'skill_add' | 'skill_remove' | 'threshold' | 'budget'\n  /** Implementation-specific payload. Researcher implementations\n   *  define the schema — keep this `unknown` here to avoid coupling\n   *  the public interface to any one researcher's internal model. */\n  payload: unknown\n  /** Why the researcher proposed this change. Goes into the audit\n   *  trail next to the failure-mode evidence. */\n  rationale: string\n  /** Optional self-reported expected delta on the headline metric. */\n  expectedDelta?: number\n}\n\n/** A single experiment plan, mapped onto the search/holdout splits. */\nexport interface ExperimentPlan {\n  baselineCandidateId: string\n  proposedCandidateId: string\n  changes: SteeringChange[]\n  /** USD ceiling for the entire experiment. The runner must stop\n   *  before exceeding this and report a partial result. */\n  evaluationBudgetUsd: number\n  /** Item IDs (your dataset keys) for the search vs holdout splits. */\n  splits: { search: string[]; holdout: string[] }\n}\n\n/** Result of running a plan: every run, plus the gate verdict. */\nexport interface ExperimentResult {\n  plan: ExperimentPlan\n  runs: RunRecord[]\n  gateDecision: GateDecision\n}\n\n/**\n * The researcher loop. Stable, four-step, inspectable.\n *\n *   ┌──────────┐  inspectFailures  ┌──────────┐  proposeChange ┌──────────┐\n *   │   runs   │ ─────────────────▶│ failures │ ──────────────▶│ changes  │\n *   └──────────┘                   └──────────┘                └────┬─────┘\n *                                                                   │\n *                                                                   ▼\n *                              ┌────────────────┐  applyChange ┌────────┐\n *                              │ ExperimentPlan │ ◀────────────│  base  │\n *                              └────────┬───────┘              └────────┘\n *                                       │\n *                       evaluateChange  ▼\n *                              ┌────────────────┐\n *                              │ ExperimentResult│\n *                              └────────────────┘\n */\nexport interface Researcher {\n  inspectFailures(runs: RunRecord[]): Promise<FailureMode[]>\n  proposeChange(failures: FailureMode[]): Promise<SteeringChange[]>\n  applyChange(changes: SteeringChange[], baseline: ExperimentPlan): Promise<ExperimentPlan>\n  evaluateChange(plan: ExperimentPlan): Promise<ExperimentResult>\n}\n\nexport interface CallbackResearcherOptions {\n  inspectFailures: Researcher['inspectFailures']\n  proposeChange: Researcher['proposeChange']\n  applyChange: Researcher['applyChange']\n  evaluateChange: Researcher['evaluateChange']\n}\n\n/**\n * Minimal concrete researcher for tests, scripts, and small integrations.\n * Larger autonomous researchers can still implement `Researcher` directly.\n */\nexport class CallbackResearcher implements Researcher {\n  constructor(private readonly callbacks: CallbackResearcherOptions) {}\n\n  inspectFailures(runs: RunRecord[]): Promise<FailureMode[]> {\n    return this.callbacks.inspectFailures(runs)\n  }\n\n  proposeChange(failures: FailureMode[]): Promise<SteeringChange[]> {\n    return this.callbacks.proposeChange(failures)\n  }\n\n  applyChange(changes: SteeringChange[], baseline: ExperimentPlan): Promise<ExperimentPlan> {\n    return this.callbacks.applyChange(changes, baseline)\n  }\n\n  evaluateChange(plan: ExperimentPlan): Promise<ExperimentResult> {\n    return this.callbacks.evaluateChange(plan)\n  }\n}\n\n/**\n * No-op researcher — fails loud on every method. Use as a placeholder\n * in code paths that wire the interface but don't have an implementation\n * yet. Importantly, this does NOT silently succeed: a no-op researcher\n * that returned empty arrays would muffle the loop's signal that\n * nobody implemented the brain.\n */\nexport class NoopResearcher implements Researcher {\n  private readonly hint: string\n\n  constructor(hint = 'NoopResearcher: no implementation wired') {\n    this.hint = hint\n  }\n\n  async inspectFailures(_runs: RunRecord[]): Promise<FailureMode[]> {\n    throw new Error(`${this.hint} (inspectFailures not implemented)`)\n  }\n\n  async proposeChange(_failures: FailureMode[]): Promise<SteeringChange[]> {\n    throw new Error(`${this.hint} (proposeChange not implemented)`)\n  }\n\n  async applyChange(\n    _changes: SteeringChange[],\n    _baseline: ExperimentPlan,\n  ): Promise<ExperimentPlan> {\n    throw new Error(`${this.hint} (applyChange not implemented)`)\n  }\n\n  async evaluateChange(_plan: ExperimentPlan): Promise<ExperimentResult> {\n    throw new Error(`${this.hint} (evaluateChange not implemented)`)\n  }\n}\n\n/** Re-export the split alias so callers don't have to import twice. */\nexport type { RunSplitTag 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package/dist/{chunk-GVQT44CS.js → chunk-KE7TDJUO.js}

@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
 import {
   cohensD
-} from "./chunk-4L3WJXQJ.js";
+} from "./chunk-KHZRNY3F.js";
 import {
   argHash,
   groupBy,
@@ -615,4 +615,4 @@ export {
   iqr,
   welchsTTest
 };
-//# sourceMappingURL=chunk-GVQT44CS.js.map
+//# sourceMappingURL=chunk-KE7TDJUO.js.map

package/dist/{chunk-4L3WJXQJ.js → chunk-KHZRNY3F.js}

@@ -699,6 +699,162 @@ function normalCdf(x) {
   const y = 1 - ((((a5 * t + a4) * t + a3) * t + a2) * t + a1) * t * Math.exp(-absX * absX / 2);
   return 0.5 * (1 + sign * y);
 }
+function requiredSampleSize(opts) {
+  const effect = opts.effect;
+  if (!Number.isFinite(effect) || effect <= 0) return Infinity;
+  const alpha = opts.alpha ?? 0.05;
+  const power = opts.power ?? 0.8;
+  const twoSided = opts.twoSided ?? true;
+  const zAlpha = zQuantile(twoSided ? 1 - alpha / 2 : 1 - alpha);
+  const zBeta = zQuantile(power);
+  const n = 2 * ((zAlpha + zBeta) / effect) ** 2;
+  return Math.ceil(n);
+}
+function pairedMde(opts) {
+  if (!Number.isFinite(opts.nPaired) || opts.nPaired <= 0) return Infinity;
+  const alpha = opts.alpha ?? 0.05;
+  const power = opts.power ?? 0.8;
+  const twoSided = opts.twoSided ?? true;
+  const zAlpha = zQuantile(twoSided ? 1 - alpha / 2 : 1 - alpha);
+  const zBeta = zQuantile(power);
+  return (zAlpha + zBeta) / Math.sqrt(opts.nPaired);
+}
+function bonferroni(pValues, alpha = 0.05) {
+  const k = pValues.length;
+  const adjusted = pValues.map((p) => Math.min(1, p * k));
+  const significant = adjusted.map((p) => p < alpha);
+  return { adjusted, significant };
+}
+function benjaminiHochberg(pValues, fdr = 0.05) {
+  const n = pValues.length;
+  if (n === 0) return { qValues: [], significant: [] };
+  const indexed = pValues.map((p, i) => ({ p, i })).sort((a, b) => a.p - b.p);
+  const q = new Array(n);
+  let minRight = 1;
+  for (let k = n - 1; k >= 0; k--) {
+    const rank = k + 1;
+    const entry = indexed[k];
+    const raw = entry.p * n / rank;
+    const bounded = Math.min(minRight, raw);
+    minRight = bounded;
+    q[entry.i] = Math.min(1, bounded);
+  }
+  const significant = q.map((v) => v < fdr);
+  return { qValues: q, significant };
+}
+function pairedBootstrap(before, after, opts = {}) {
+  if (before.length !== after.length) {
+    throw new Error(`pairedBootstrap: unequal sample sizes (${before.length} vs ${after.length})`);
+  }
+  const confidence = opts.confidence ?? 0.95;
+  const resamples = opts.resamples ?? 2e3;
+  const statistic = opts.statistic ?? "median";
+  if (confidence <= 0 || confidence >= 1) {
+    throw new Error(`pairedBootstrap: confidence must be in (0,1), got ${confidence}`);
+  }
+  const n = before.length;
+  const deltas = before.map((b, i) => after[i] - b);
+  if (n === 0) {
+    return { n: 0, median: 0, mean: 0, low: 0, high: 0, confidence, resamples };
+  }
+  if (n === 1) {
+    const d = deltas[0];
+    return { n: 1, median: d, mean: d, low: d, high: d, confidence, resamples };
+  }
+  const rng = makeRng(opts.seed);
+  const samples = new Array(resamples);
+  for (let b = 0; b < resamples; b++) {
+    if (statistic === "mean") {
+      let sum = 0;
+      for (let k = 0; k < n; k++) {
+        sum += deltas[Math.floor(rng() * n)];
+      }
+      samples[b] = sum / n;
+    } else {
+      const acc = new Array(n);
+      for (let k = 0; k < n; k++) {
+        acc[k] = deltas[Math.floor(rng() * n)];
+      }
+      samples[b] = medianInPlace(acc);
+    }
+  }
+  samples.sort((a, b) => a - b);
+  const alpha = 1 - confidence;
+  const lowIdx = Math.floor(alpha / 2 * resamples);
+  const highIdx = Math.min(resamples - 1, Math.ceil((1 - alpha / 2) * resamples) - 1);
+  return {
+    n,
+    median: medianInPlace([...deltas]),
+    mean: deltas.reduce((s, x) => s + x, 0) / n,
+    low: samples[lowIdx],
+    high: samples[Math.max(highIdx, lowIdx)],
+    confidence,
+    resamples
+  };
+}
+function zQuantile(p) {
+  if (p <= 0 || p >= 1) {
+    if (p === 0) return -Infinity;
+    if (p === 1) return Infinity;
+    return NaN;
+  }
+  const a = [
+    -39.69683028665376,
+    220.9460984245205,
+    -275.9285104469687,
+    138.357751867269,
+    -30.66479806614716,
+    2.506628277459239
+  ];
+  const b = [
+    -54.47609879822406,
+    161.5858368580409,
+    -155.6989798598866,
+    66.80131188771972,
+    -13.28068155288572
+  ];
+  const c = [
+    -0.007784894002430293,
+    -0.3223964580411365,
+    -2.400758277161838,
+    -2.549732539343734,
+    4.374664141464968,
+    2.938163982698783
+  ];
+  const d = [0.007784695709041462, 0.3224671290700398, 2.445134137142996, 3.754408661907416];
+  const pLow = 0.02425;
+  const pHigh = 1 - pLow;
+  let q;
+  let r;
+  if (p < pLow) {
+    q = Math.sqrt(-2 * Math.log(p));
+    return (((((c[0] * q + c[1]) * q + c[2]) * q + c[3]) * q + c[4]) * q + c[5]) / ((((d[0] * q + d[1]) * q + d[2]) * q + d[3]) * q + 1);
+  }
+  if (p <= pHigh) {
+    q = p - 0.5;
+    r = q * q;
+    return (((((a[0] * r + a[1]) * r + a[2]) * r + a[3]) * r + a[4]) * r + a[5]) * q / (((((b[0] * r + b[1]) * r + b[2]) * r + b[3]) * r + b[4]) * r + 1);
+  }
+  q = Math.sqrt(-2 * Math.log(1 - p));
+  return -(((((c[0] * q + c[1]) * q + c[2]) * q + c[3]) * q + c[4]) * q + c[5]) / ((((d[0] * q + d[1]) * q + d[2]) * q + d[3]) * q + 1);
+}
+function medianInPlace(xs) {
+  if (xs.length === 0) return 0;
+  xs.sort((a, b) => a - b);
+  const mid = Math.floor(xs.length / 2);
+  return xs.length % 2 === 0 ? (xs[mid - 1] + xs[mid]) / 2 : xs[mid];
+}
+function makeRng(seed) {
+  if (seed === void 0) return Math.random;
+  let s = seed | 0 || 2654435769;
+  return () => {
+    s = s + 1831565813 | 0;
+    let t = s;
+    t = Math.imul(t ^ t >>> 15, t | 1);
+    t ^= t + Math.imul(t ^ t >>> 7, t | 61);
+    return ((t ^ t >>> 14) >>> 0) / 4294967296;
+  };
+}
 
 export {
   calibrateJudge,
@@ -717,6 +873,11 @@ export {
   wilcoxonSignedRank,
   cohensD,
   corpusInterRaterAgreement,
-  corpusInterRaterAgreementFromJudgeScores
+  corpusInterRaterAgreementFromJudgeScores,
+  requiredSampleSize,
+  pairedMde,
+  bonferroni,
+  benjaminiHochberg,
+  pairedBootstrap
 };
-//# sourceMappingURL=chunk-4L3WJXQJ.js.map
+//# sourceMappingURL=chunk-KHZRNY3F.js.map