@tangle-network/agent-eval 0.27.0 → 0.28.0

package/dist/chunk-I4MBDTY5.js

@@ -1,272 +0,0 @@
-import {
-  ValidationError
-} from "./chunk-NG236HPC.js";
-
-// src/statistics.ts
-var INVERTED_DIMENSIONS = /* @__PURE__ */ new Set(["hallucination", "false_confidence", "worst_failure"]);
-function normalizeScores(scores) {
-  return scores.map((s) => {
-    if (INVERTED_DIMENSIONS.has(s.dimension)) {
-      return s;
-    }
-    return s;
-  });
-}
-function weightedMean(scores) {
-  if (scores.length === 0) return 0;
-  let totalWeight = 0;
-  let weightedSum = 0;
-  for (const { score, weight } of scores) {
-    const w = weight ?? 1;
-    weightedSum += score * w;
-    totalWeight += w;
-  }
-  return totalWeight > 0 ? weightedSum / totalWeight : 0;
-}
-function confidenceInterval(scores, confidence = 0.95) {
-  if (scores.length === 0) return { mean: 0, lower: 0, upper: 0 };
-  if (scores.length === 1) return { mean: scores[0], lower: scores[0], upper: scores[0] };
-  const n = scores.length;
-  const mean = scores.reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0) / n;
-  const B = 1e3;
-  const bootstrapMeans = [];
-  for (let i = 0; i < B; i++) {
-    let sum = 0;
-    for (let j = 0; j < n; j++) {
-      sum += scores[Math.floor(Math.random() * n)];
-    }
-    bootstrapMeans.push(sum / n);
-  }
-  bootstrapMeans.sort((a, b) => a - b);
-  const alpha = 1 - confidence;
-  const lowerIdx = Math.floor(alpha / 2 * B);
-  const upperIdx = Math.floor((1 - alpha / 2) * B) - 1;
-  return {
-    mean,
-    lower: bootstrapMeans[lowerIdx],
-    upper: bootstrapMeans[Math.min(upperIdx, B - 1)]
-  };
-}
-function interRaterReliability(judgeScores) {
-  if (judgeScores.length < 2) return 1;
-  const dimensionMap = /* @__PURE__ */ new Map();
-  for (const judgeSet of judgeScores) {
-    for (const s of judgeSet) {
-      if (!dimensionMap.has(s.dimension)) dimensionMap.set(s.dimension, []);
-      const arr = dimensionMap.get(s.dimension);
-      if (arr.length === 0 || arr[arr.length - 1].length >= judgeScores.length) {
-        arr.push([s.score]);
-      } else {
-        arr[arr.length - 1].push(s.score);
-      }
-    }
-  }
-  const allValues = [];
-  const pairDiffs = [];
-  for (const items of dimensionMap.values()) {
-    for (const ratings of items) {
-      if (ratings.length < 2) continue;
-      for (const v of ratings) allValues.push(v);
-      for (let i = 0; i < ratings.length; i++) {
-        for (let j = i + 1; j < ratings.length; j++) {
-          pairDiffs.push((ratings[i] - ratings[j]) ** 2);
-        }
-      }
-    }
-  }
-  if (pairDiffs.length === 0 || allValues.length < 2) return 1;
-  const observedDisagreement = pairDiffs.reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0) / pairDiffs.length;
-  let expectedDisagreement = 0;
-  let expectedCount = 0;
-  for (let i = 0; i < allValues.length; i++) {
-    for (let j = i + 1; j < allValues.length; j++) {
-      expectedDisagreement += (allValues[i] - allValues[j]) ** 2;
-      expectedCount++;
-    }
-  }
-  expectedDisagreement = expectedCount > 0 ? expectedDisagreement / expectedCount : 0;
-  if (expectedDisagreement === 0) return 1;
-  return 1 - observedDisagreement / expectedDisagreement;
-}
-function mannWhitneyU(a, b) {
-  if (a.length === 0 || b.length === 0) return { u: 0, p: 1 };
-  const n1 = a.length;
-  const n2 = b.length;
-  const combined = [
-    ...a.map((v) => ({ v, group: "a" })),
-    ...b.map((v) => ({ v, group: "b" }))
-  ].sort((x, y) => x.v - y.v);
-  const ranks = new Array(combined.length);
-  let i = 0;
-  while (i < combined.length) {
-    let j = i;
-    while (j < combined.length && combined[j].v === combined[i].v) j++;
-    const avgRank = (i + 1 + j) / 2;
-    for (let k = i; k < j; k++) ranks[k] = avgRank;
-    i = j;
-  }
-  let r1 = 0;
-  for (let k = 0; k < combined.length; k++) {
-    if (combined[k].group === "a") r1 += ranks[k];
-  }
-  const u1 = r1 - n1 * (n1 + 1) / 2;
-  const u2 = n1 * n2 - u1;
-  const u = Math.min(u1, u2);
-  const mu = n1 * n2 / 2;
-  const sigma = Math.sqrt(n1 * n2 * (n1 + n2 + 1) / 12);
-  if (sigma === 0) return { u, p: 1 };
-  const z = Math.abs(u - mu) / sigma;
-  const p = 2 * (1 - normalCdf(z));
-  return { u, p };
-}
-function partialCredit(current, target) {
-  if (target <= 0) return 1;
-  return Math.min(1, Math.max(0, current / target));
-}
-function pairedTTest(before, after) {
-  if (before.length !== after.length) {
-    throw new ValidationError(
-      `pairedTTest: unequal sample sizes (${before.length} vs ${after.length})`
-    );
-  }
-  const n = before.length;
-  if (n < 2) return { t: 0, df: 0, p: 1 };
-  const diffs = before.map((b, i) => after[i] - b);
-  const mean = diffs.reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0) / n;
-  const variance = diffs.reduce((acc, d) => acc + (d - mean) ** 2, 0) / (n - 1);
-  const se = Math.sqrt(variance / n);
-  if (se === 0) return { t: mean === 0 ? 0 : Infinity, df: n - 1, p: mean === 0 ? 1 : 0 };
-  const t = mean / se;
-  const df = n - 1;
-  const p = 2 * (1 - studentTCdf(Math.abs(t), df));
-  return { t, df, p };
-}
-function wilcoxonSignedRank(before, after) {
-  if (before.length !== after.length) {
-    throw new ValidationError(
-      `wilcoxonSignedRank: unequal sample sizes (${before.length} vs ${after.length})`
-    );
-  }
-  const diffs = before.map((b, i2) => after[i2] - b).filter((d) => d !== 0);
-  const n = diffs.length;
-  if (n < 6) return { w: 0, p: 1 };
-  const absRanks = diffs.map((d, i2) => ({ abs: Math.abs(d), sign: Math.sign(d), i: i2 })).sort((a, b) => a.abs - b.abs);
-  const ranks = new Array(n);
-  let i = 0;
-  while (i < n) {
-    let j = i;
-    while (j < n && absRanks[j].abs === absRanks[i].abs) j++;
-    const avg = (i + 1 + j) / 2;
-    for (let k = i; k < j; k++) ranks[absRanks[k].i] = avg;
-    i = j;
-  }
-  let wPlus = 0;
-  for (let k = 0; k < n; k++) if (diffs[k] > 0) wPlus += ranks[k];
-  const mean = n * (n + 1) / 4;
-  const variance = n * (n + 1) * (2 * n + 1) / 24;
-  const z = (wPlus - mean) / Math.sqrt(variance);
-  const p = 2 * (1 - normalCdf(Math.abs(z)));
-  return { w: wPlus, p };
-}
-function cohensD(a, b) {
-  if (a.length < 2 || b.length < 2) return 0;
-  const meanA = a.reduce((x, y) => x + y, 0) / a.length;
-  const meanB = b.reduce((x, y) => x + y, 0) / b.length;
-  const varA = a.reduce((acc, x) => acc + (x - meanA) ** 2, 0) / (a.length - 1);
-  const varB = b.reduce((acc, x) => acc + (x - meanB) ** 2, 0) / (b.length - 1);
-  const pooled = Math.sqrt(
-    ((a.length - 1) * varA + (b.length - 1) * varB) / (a.length + b.length - 2)
-  );
-  if (pooled === 0) return 0;
-  return (meanB - meanA) / pooled;
-}
-function studentTCdf(t, df) {
-  if (df <= 0) return 0.5;
-  if (df > 100) return normalCdf(t);
-  const x = df / (df + t * t);
-  const a = df / 2;
-  const b = 0.5;
-  const ib = incompleteBeta(x, a, b);
-  return t >= 0 ? 1 - 0.5 * ib : 0.5 * ib;
-}
-function incompleteBeta(x, a, b) {
-  if (x <= 0) return 0;
-  if (x >= 1) return 1;
-  const lnBeta = lnGamma(a) + lnGamma(b) - lnGamma(a + b);
-  const front = Math.exp(Math.log(x) * a + Math.log(1 - x) * b - lnBeta) / a;
-  const maxIter = 200;
-  const eps = 3e-7;
-  let c = 1;
-  let d = 1 - (a + b) * x / (a + 1);
-  if (Math.abs(d) < 1e-30) d = 1e-30;
-  d = 1 / d;
-  let f = d;
-  for (let m = 1; m <= maxIter; m++) {
-    const m2 = 2 * m;
-    let num = m * (b - m) * x / ((a + m2 - 1) * (a + m2));
-    d = 1 + num * d;
-    if (Math.abs(d) < 1e-30) d = 1e-30;
-    c = 1 + num / c;
-    if (Math.abs(c) < 1e-30) c = 1e-30;
-    d = 1 / d;
-    f *= d * c;
-    num = -((a + m) * (a + b + m) * x) / ((a + m2) * (a + m2 + 1));
-    d = 1 + num * d;
-    if (Math.abs(d) < 1e-30) d = 1e-30;
-    c = 1 + num / c;
-    if (Math.abs(c) < 1e-30) c = 1e-30;
-    d = 1 / d;
-    const delta = d * c;
-    f *= delta;
-    if (Math.abs(delta - 1) < eps) break;
-  }
-  return front * f;
-}
-function lnGamma(z) {
-  const g = 7;
-  const coefs = [
-    0.9999999999998099,
-    676.5203681218851,
-    -1259.1392167224028,
-    771.3234287776531,
-    -176.6150291621406,
-    12.507343278686905,
-    -0.13857109526572012,
-    9984369578019572e-21,
-    15056327351493116e-23
-  ];
-  if (z < 0.5) {
-    return Math.log(Math.PI / Math.sin(Math.PI * z)) - lnGamma(1 - z);
-  }
-  z -= 1;
-  let x = coefs[0];
-  for (let i = 1; i < g + 2; i++) x += coefs[i] / (z + i);
-  const t = z + g + 0.5;
-  return 0.5 * Math.log(2 * Math.PI) + (z + 0.5) * Math.log(t) - t + Math.log(x);
-}
-function normalCdf(x) {
-  const a1 = 0.254829592;
-  const a2 = -0.284496736;
-  const a3 = 1.421413741;
-  const a4 = -1.453152027;
-  const a5 = 1.061405429;
-  const p = 0.3275911;
-  const sign = x < 0 ? -1 : 1;
-  const absX = Math.abs(x);
-  const t = 1 / (1 + p * absX);
-  const y = 1 - ((((a5 * t + a4) * t + a3) * t + a2) * t + a1) * t * Math.exp(-absX * absX / 2);
-  return 0.5 * (1 + sign * y);
-}
-
-export {
-  normalizeScores,
-  weightedMean,
-  confidenceInterval,
-  interRaterReliability,
-  mannWhitneyU,
-  partialCredit,
-  pairedTTest,
-  wilcoxonSignedRank,
-  cohensD
-};
-//# sourceMappingURL=chunk-I4MBDTY5.js.map

package/dist/chunk-I4MBDTY5.js.map

@@ -1 +0,0 @@
-{"version":3,"sources":["../src/statistics.ts"],"sourcesContent":["import { ValidationError } from './errors'\nimport type { JudgeScore } from './types'\n\n/** Dimensions where lower raw score = better outcome (inverted semantics) */\nconst INVERTED_DIMENSIONS = new Set(['hallucination', 'false_confidence', 'worst_failure'])\n\n/**\n * Normalize scores so all dimensions follow \"higher = better\".\n * Inverted dimensions (hallucination, false_confidence, worst_failure)\n * already use inverted scoring in the prompt (10 = no hallucination),\n * but this function ensures consistency if raw scores leak through.\n */\nexport function normalizeScores(scores: JudgeScore[]): JudgeScore[] {\n  return scores.map((s) => {\n    if (INVERTED_DIMENSIONS.has(s.dimension)) {\n      return s\n    }\n    return s\n  })\n}\n\n/** Weighted mean — falls back to uniform weights when omitted */\nexport function weightedMean(scores: { score: number; weight?: number }[]): number {\n  if (scores.length === 0) return 0\n  let totalWeight = 0\n  let weightedSum = 0\n  for (const { score, weight } of scores) {\n    const w = weight ?? 1\n    weightedSum += score * w\n    totalWeight += w\n  }\n  return totalWeight > 0 ? weightedSum / totalWeight : 0\n}\n\n/** Bootstrap confidence interval */\nexport function confidenceInterval(\n  scores: number[],\n  confidence = 0.95,\n): { mean: number; lower: number; upper: number } {\n  if (scores.length === 0) return { mean: 0, lower: 0, upper: 0 }\n  if (scores.length === 1) return { mean: scores[0]!, lower: scores[0]!, upper: scores[0]! }\n\n  const n = scores.length\n  const mean = scores.reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0) / n\n\n  const B = 1000\n  const bootstrapMeans: number[] = []\n\n  for (let i = 0; i < B; i++) {\n    let sum = 0\n    for (let j = 0; j < n; j++) {\n      sum += scores[Math.floor(Math.random() * n)]!\n    }\n    bootstrapMeans.push(sum / n)\n  }\n\n  bootstrapMeans.sort((a, b) => a - b)\n\n  const alpha = 1 - confidence\n  const lowerIdx = Math.floor((alpha / 2) * B)\n  const upperIdx = Math.floor((1 - alpha / 2) * B) - 1\n\n  return {\n    mean,\n    lower: bootstrapMeans[lowerIdx]!,\n    upper: bootstrapMeans[Math.min(upperIdx, B - 1)]!,\n  }\n}\n\n/**\n * Inter-rater reliability — simplified Krippendorff's alpha.\n *\n * Each inner array is one judge's scores for all items.\n * All arrays must have the same length (same items scored).\n */\nexport function interRaterReliability(judgeScores: JudgeScore[][]): number {\n  if (judgeScores.length < 2) return 1\n\n  // Group scores by dimension across judges\n  const dimensionMap = new Map<string, number[][]>()\n  for (const judgeSet of judgeScores) {\n    for (const s of judgeSet) {\n      if (!dimensionMap.has(s.dimension)) dimensionMap.set(s.dimension, [])\n      const arr = dimensionMap.get(s.dimension)!\n      if (arr.length === 0 || arr[arr.length - 1]!.length >= judgeScores.length) {\n        arr.push([s.score])\n      } else {\n        arr[arr.length - 1]!.push(s.score)\n      }\n    }\n  }\n\n  // Collect all paired ratings\n  const allValues: number[] = []\n  const pairDiffs: number[] = []\n\n  for (const items of dimensionMap.values()) {\n    for (const ratings of items) {\n      if (ratings.length < 2) continue\n      for (const v of ratings) allValues.push(v)\n      for (let i = 0; i < ratings.length; i++) {\n        for (let j = i + 1; j < ratings.length; j++) {\n          pairDiffs.push((ratings[i]! - ratings[j]!) ** 2)\n        }\n      }\n    }\n  }\n\n  if (pairDiffs.length === 0 || allValues.length < 2) return 1\n\n  const observedDisagreement = pairDiffs.reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0) / pairDiffs.length\n\n  // Expected disagreement from all possible pairings of values\n  let expectedDisagreement = 0\n  let expectedCount = 0\n  for (let i = 0; i < allValues.length; i++) {\n    for (let j = i + 1; j < allValues.length; j++) {\n      expectedDisagreement += (allValues[i]! - allValues[j]!) ** 2\n      expectedCount++\n    }\n  }\n  expectedDisagreement = expectedCount > 0 ? expectedDisagreement / expectedCount : 0\n\n  if (expectedDisagreement === 0) return 1\n  return 1 - observedDisagreement / expectedDisagreement\n}\n\n/**\n * Mann-Whitney U test for comparing two independent groups.\n * Returns U statistic and approximate p-value (normal approximation).\n */\nexport function mannWhitneyU(a: number[], b: number[]): { u: number; p: number } {\n  if (a.length === 0 || b.length === 0) return { u: 0, p: 1 }\n\n  const n1 = a.length\n  const n2 = b.length\n\n  // Rank all values together\n  const combined = [\n    ...a.map((v) => ({ v, group: 'a' as const })),\n    ...b.map((v) => ({ v, group: 'b' as const })),\n  ].sort((x, y) => x.v - y.v)\n\n  // Assign ranks with tie handling\n  const ranks: number[] = new Array(combined.length)\n  let i = 0\n  while (i < combined.length) {\n    let j = i\n    while (j < combined.length && combined[j]!.v === combined[i]!.v) j++\n    const avgRank = (i + 1 + j) / 2\n    for (let k = i; k < j; k++) ranks[k] = avgRank\n    i = j\n  }\n\n  // Sum ranks for group a\n  let r1 = 0\n  for (let k = 0; k < combined.length; k++) {\n    if (combined[k]!.group === 'a') r1 += ranks[k]!\n  }\n\n  const u1 = r1 - (n1 * (n1 + 1)) / 2\n  const u2 = n1 * n2 - u1\n  const u = Math.min(u1, u2)\n\n  // Normal approximation for p-value\n  const mu = (n1 * n2) / 2\n  const sigma = Math.sqrt((n1 * n2 * (n1 + n2 + 1)) / 12)\n\n  if (sigma === 0) return { u, p: 1 }\n\n  const z = Math.abs(u - mu) / sigma\n  // Two-tailed p-value from z-score (approximation)\n  const p = 2 * (1 - normalCdf(z))\n\n  return { u, p }\n}\n\n/** Partial credit: returns 0-1 ratio of current toward target */\nexport function partialCredit(current: number, target: number): number {\n  if (target <= 0) return 1\n  return Math.min(1, Math.max(0, current / target))\n}\n\n/**\n * Paired t-test — before/after measurements on the SAME items.\n * Pairing removes inter-item variance, giving tighter significance than\n * an unpaired test when comparing prompt v1 vs prompt v2 on identical\n * scenarios.\n */\nexport function pairedTTest(\n  before: number[],\n  after: number[],\n): { t: number; df: number; p: number } {\n  if (before.length !== after.length) {\n    throw new ValidationError(\n      `pairedTTest: unequal sample sizes (${before.length} vs ${after.length})`,\n    )\n  }\n  const n = before.length\n  if (n < 2) return { t: 0, df: 0, p: 1 }\n\n  const diffs = before.map((b, i) => after[i]! - b)\n  const mean = diffs.reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0) / n\n  const variance = diffs.reduce((acc, d) => acc + (d - mean) ** 2, 0) / (n - 1)\n  const se = Math.sqrt(variance / n)\n  if (se === 0) return { t: mean === 0 ? 0 : Infinity, df: n - 1, p: mean === 0 ? 1 : 0 }\n\n  const t = mean / se\n  const df = n - 1\n  const p = 2 * (1 - studentTCdf(Math.abs(t), df))\n  return { t, df, p }\n}\n\n/**\n * Wilcoxon signed-rank test — paired non-parametric alternative.\n * Use when the differences aren't normally distributed.\n */\nexport function wilcoxonSignedRank(before: number[], after: number[]): { w: number; p: number } {\n  if (before.length !== after.length) {\n    throw new ValidationError(\n      `wilcoxonSignedRank: unequal sample sizes (${before.length} vs ${after.length})`,\n    )\n  }\n  const diffs = before.map((b, i) => after[i]! - b).filter((d) => d !== 0)\n  const n = diffs.length\n  if (n < 6) return { w: 0, p: 1 }\n\n  const absRanks = diffs\n    .map((d, i) => ({ abs: Math.abs(d), sign: Math.sign(d), i }))\n    .sort((a, b) => a.abs - b.abs)\n  const ranks: number[] = new Array(n)\n  let i = 0\n  while (i < n) {\n    let j = i\n    while (j < n && absRanks[j]!.abs === absRanks[i]!.abs) j++\n    const avg = (i + 1 + j) / 2\n    for (let k = i; k < j; k++) ranks[absRanks[k]!.i] = avg\n    i = j\n  }\n  let wPlus = 0\n  for (let k = 0; k < n; k++) if (diffs[k]! > 0) wPlus += ranks[k]!\n\n  const mean = (n * (n + 1)) / 4\n  const variance = (n * (n + 1) * (2 * n + 1)) / 24\n  const z = (wPlus - mean) / Math.sqrt(variance)\n  const p = 2 * (1 - normalCdf(Math.abs(z)))\n  return { w: wPlus, p }\n}\n\n/**\n * Cohen's d — standardized effect size for two independent groups.\n * Positive d means group b has higher mean than group a.\n * Rule of thumb: |d| < 0.2 negligible, 0.2–0.5 small, 0.5–0.8 medium, > 0.8 large.\n */\nexport function cohensD(a: number[], b: number[]): number {\n  if (a.length < 2 || b.length < 2) return 0\n  const meanA = a.reduce((x, y) => x + y, 0) / a.length\n  const meanB = b.reduce((x, y) => x + y, 0) / b.length\n  const varA = a.reduce((acc, x) => acc + (x - meanA) ** 2, 0) / (a.length - 1)\n  const varB = b.reduce((acc, x) => acc + (x - meanB) ** 2, 0) / (b.length - 1)\n  const pooled = Math.sqrt(\n    ((a.length - 1) * varA + (b.length - 1) * varB) / (a.length + b.length - 2),\n  )\n  if (pooled === 0) return 0\n  return (meanB - meanA) / pooled\n}\n\n/** Student-t CDF approximation via Abramowitz-Stegun series. */\nfunction studentTCdf(t: number, df: number): number {\n  if (df <= 0) return 0.5\n  if (df > 100) return normalCdf(t)\n  const x = df / (df + t * t)\n  const a = df / 2\n  const b = 0.5\n  const ib = incompleteBeta(x, a, b)\n  return t >= 0 ? 1 - 0.5 * ib : 0.5 * ib\n}\n\n/** Regularized incomplete beta function via continued fraction (Lentz). */\nfunction incompleteBeta(x: number, a: number, b: number): number {\n  if (x <= 0) return 0\n  if (x >= 1) return 1\n  const lnBeta = lnGamma(a) + lnGamma(b) - lnGamma(a + b)\n  const front = Math.exp(Math.log(x) * a + Math.log(1 - x) * b - lnBeta) / a\n  const maxIter = 200\n  const eps = 3e-7\n  let c = 1\n  let d = 1 - ((a + b) * x) / (a + 1)\n  if (Math.abs(d) < 1e-30) d = 1e-30\n  d = 1 / d\n  let f = d\n  for (let m = 1; m <= maxIter; m++) {\n    const m2 = 2 * m\n    let num = (m * (b - m) * x) / ((a + m2 - 1) * (a + m2))\n    d = 1 + num * d\n    if (Math.abs(d) < 1e-30) d = 1e-30\n    c = 1 + num / c\n    if (Math.abs(c) < 1e-30) c = 1e-30\n   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package/dist/chunk-JLZQWFV3.js.map

@@ -1 +0,0 @@
-{"version":3,"sources":["../src/failure-taxonomy.ts","../src/pipelines/failure-cluster.ts","../src/tool-use-metrics.ts","../src/baseline.ts"],"sourcesContent":["/**\n * Failure taxonomy — canonical classes + a default classifier.\n *\n * Every failed run should end up in a named class. The classifier here\n * is rule-based (fast, deterministic); an LLM fallback can be added by\n * the consumer for novel cases and trained into the rule base over time.\n *\n * Consumers call `classifyFailure(run, spans, events)` and persist the\n * returned class as `Run.outcome.failureClass`.\n */\n\nimport type { FailureClass, Run, Span, TraceEvent } from './trace/schema'\nimport { FAILURE_CLASSES } from './trace/schema'\n\nexport { FAILURE_CLASSES, type FailureClass }\n\nexport interface FailureContext {\n  run: Run\n  spans: Span[]\n  events: TraceEvent[]\n}\n\nexport interface FailureClassification {\n  failureClass: FailureClass\n  reason: string\n  triggerSpanId?: string\n  triggerEventId?: string\n}\n\n/** Ordered rules — first match wins. */\nexport interface FailureRule {\n  id: string\n  match: (ctx: FailureContext) => {\n    failureClass: FailureClass\n    reason: string\n    triggerSpanId?: string\n    triggerEventId?: string\n  } | null\n}\n\nexport const DEFAULT_RULES: FailureRule[] = [\n  // Outcome already named? Respect it.\n  {\n    id: 'explicit-outcome',\n    match: ({ run }) => {\n      const fc = run.outcome?.failureClass\n      if (fc && fc !== 'unknown')\n        return { failureClass: fc, reason: 'outcome.failureClass set explicitly' }\n      return null\n    },\n  },\n  {\n    id: 'knowledge-readiness-blocked',\n    match: ({ events }) => {\n      const event = events.find(\n        (e) =>\n          e.kind === 'custom' &&\n          e.payload.kind === 'readiness_scored' &&\n          e.payload.passed === false,\n      )\n      return event\n        ? {\n            failureClass: 'knowledge_readiness_blocked',\n            reason: 'knowledge readiness report blocked execution',\n            triggerEventId: event.eventId,\n          }\n        : null\n    },\n  },\n  {\n    id: 'bad-integration-manifest',\n    match: ({ events }) => {\n      const event = events.find(\n        (e) =>\n          e.kind === 'custom' &&\n          ((e.payload.kind === 'integration_manifest_validated' && e.payload.valid === false) ||\n            (e.payload.kind === 'integration_invoke_failed' &&\n              e.payload.code === 'manifest_invalid')),\n      )\n      return event\n        ? {\n            failureClass: 'bad_integration_manifest',\n            reason: 'integration manifest validation failed before launch',\n            triggerEventId: event.eventId,\n          }\n        : null\n    },\n  },\n  {\n    id: 'missing-integration-connection',\n    match: ({ events }) => {\n      const event = events.find(\n        (e) =>\n          e.kind === 'custom' &&\n          e.payload.kind === 'integration_manifest_resolved' &&\n          hasResolutionStatus(e.payload, 'missing_connection'),\n      )\n      return event\n        ? {\n            failureClass: 'missing_integration_connection',\n            reason: 'required integration connection was missing',\n            triggerEventId: event.eventId,\n          }\n        : null\n    },\n  },\n  {\n    id: 'missing-integration-scope',\n    match: ({ events }) => {\n      const event = events.find(\n        (e) =>\n          e.kind === 'custom' &&\n          ((e.payload.kind === 'integration_manifest_resolved' && hasMissingScopes(e.payload)) ||\n            (e.payload.kind === 'integration_invoke_failed' && e.payload.code === 'scope_denied')),\n      )\n      return event\n        ? {\n            failureClass: 'missing_integration_scope',\n            reason: 'integration grant or connection lacks required scopes',\n            triggerEventId: event.eventId,\n          }\n        : null\n    },\n  },\n  {\n    id: 'integration-approval-required',\n    match: ({ events }) => {\n      const event = events.find(\n        (e) =>\n          e.kind === 'custom' &&\n          ((e.payload.kind === 'integration_invoke' && e.payload.status === 'approval_required') ||\n            (e.payload.kind === 'integration_invoke_failed' &&\n              e.payload.code === 'approval_required') ||\n            e.payload.kind === 'integration_approval_required'),\n      )\n      return event\n        ? {\n            failureClass: 'integration_approval_required',\n            reason: 'integration write paused for user approval',\n            triggerEventId: event.eventId,\n          }\n        : null\n    },\n  },\n  {\n    id: 'integration-auth-expired',\n    match: ({ events }) => {\n      const event = events.find(\n        (e) =>\n          e.kind === 'custom' &&\n          e.payload.kind === 'integration_invoke_failed' &&\n          (e.payload.code === 'auth_expired' ||\n            e.payload.code === 'connection_not_active' ||\n            e.payload.code === 'capability_expired' ||\n            e.payload.status === 'expired'),\n      )\n      return event\n        ? {\n            failureClass: 'integration_auth_expired',\n            reason: 'integration connection or capability expired',\n            triggerEventId: event.eventId,\n          }\n        : null\n    },\n  },\n  {\n    id: 'unsafe-integration-write-denied',\n    match: ({ events }) => {\n      const event = events.find(\n        (e) =>\n          e.kind === 'custom' &&\n          e.payload.kind === 'integration_invoke_failed' &&\n          (e.payload.code === 'unsafe_write_denied' ||\n            e.payload.code === 'policy_denied' ||\n            e.payload.code === 'action_denied'),\n      )\n      return event\n        ? {\n            failureClass: 'unsafe_integration_write_denied',\n            reason: 'integration write was denied by policy or capability scope',\n            triggerEventId: event.eventId,\n          }\n        : null\n    },\n  },\n  {\n    id: 'integration-provider-failure',\n    match: ({ events }) => {\n      const event = events.find(\n        (e) =>\n          e.kind === 'custom' &&\n          e.payload.kind === 'integration_invoke_failed' &&\n          ![\n            'scope_denied',\n            'approval_required',\n            'auth_expired',\n            'connection_not_active',\n            'capability_expired',\n            'unsafe_write_denied',\n            'policy_denied',\n            'action_denied',\n            'manifest_invalid',\n          ].includes(String(e.payload.code)),\n      )\n      return event\n        ? {\n            failureClass: 'integration_provider_failure',\n            reason: 'integration provider invocation failed',\n            triggerEventId: event.eventId,\n          }\n        : null\n    },\n  },\n  {\n    id: 'missing-credentials',\n    match: ({ events }) => {\n      const event = events.find(\n        (e) =>\n          e.kind === 'custom' &&\n          e.payload.kind === 'knowledge_gap' &&\n          e.payload.category === 'credential_or_secret',\n      )\n      return event\n        ? {\n            failureClass: 'missing_credentials',\n            reason: 'required credential or secret was missing',\n            triggerEventId: event.eventId,\n          }\n        : null\n    },\n  },\n  {\n    id: 'bad-retrieval',\n    match: ({ run, spans }) => {\n      if (run.outcome?.pass !== false) return null\n      const retrieval = spans.find(\n        (s) =>\n          s.kind === 'retrieval' && (s.hits.length === 0 || s.hits.every((hit) => hit.score <= 0)),\n      )\n      return retrieval\n        ? {\n            failureClass: 'bad_retrieval',\n            reason: 'retrieval returned no useful hits for a failed run',\n            triggerSpanId: retrieval.spanId,\n          }\n        : null\n    },\n  },\n  {\n    id: 'insufficient-evidence',\n    match: ({ events }) => {\n      const event = events.find(\n        (e) =>\n          e.kind === 'custom' &&\n          e.payload.kind === 'knowledge_gap' &&\n          e.payload.reason === 'insufficient_evidence',\n      )\n      return event\n        ? {\n            failureClass: 'insufficient_evidence',\n            reason: 'task proceeded with insufficient supporting evidence',\n            triggerEventId: event.eventId,\n          }\n        : null\n    },\n  },\n  {\n    id: 'contradictory-evidence',\n    match: ({ events }) => {\n      const event = events.find(\n        (e) =>\n          e.kind === 'custom' &&\n          e.payload.kind === 'knowledge_gap' &&\n          e.payload.reason === 'contradictory_evidence',\n      )\n      return event\n        ? {\n            failureClass: 'contradictory_evidence',\n            reason: 'supporting evidence contradicted itself',\n            triggerEventId: event.eventId,\n          }\n        : null\n    },\n  },\n  // Budget breach events\n  {\n    id: 'budget-breach',\n    match: ({ events }) => {\n      const breach = events.find((e) => e.kind === 'budget_breach')\n      return breach\n        ? {\n            failureClass: 'budget_exceeded',\n            reason: `budget breached on ${breach.payload.dimension ?? 'unknown dimension'}`,\n            triggerEventId: breach.eventId,\n          }\n        : null\n    },\n  },\n  // Policy violations\n  {\n    id: 'policy-violation',\n    match: ({ events }) => {\n      const e = events.find((x) => x.kind === 'policy_violation')\n      return e\n        ? {\n            failureClass: 'policy_violation',\n            reason: 'policy_violation event emitted',\n            triggerEventId: e.eventId,\n          }\n        : null\n    },\n  },\n  // Sandbox non-zero exit code\n  {\n    id: 'sandbox-failure',\n    match: ({ spans }) => {\n      const s = spans.find(\n        (x) => x.kind === 'sandbox' && typeof x.exitCode === 'number' && x.exitCode !== 0,\n      )\n      if (!s) return null\n      return {\n        failureClass: 'sandbox_failure',\n        reason: `sandbox exited ${(s as Extract<Span, { kind: 'sandbox' }>).exitCode}`,\n        triggerSpanId: s.spanId,\n      }\n    },\n  },\n  // Timeout: run aborted by external signal\n  {\n    id: 'timeout',\n    match: ({ run, events }) => {\n      if (run.status !== 'aborted') return null\n      const hasTimeout = events.some(\n        (e) =>\n          e.kind === 'error' &&\n          String(e.payload.reason ?? '')\n            .toLowerCase()\n            .includes('timeout'),\n      )\n      const note = (run.outcome?.notes ?? '').toLowerCase()\n      if (hasTimeout || note.includes('timeout') || note.includes('deadline')) {\n        return { failureClass: 'timeout', reason: 'timeout signal observed' }\n      }\n      return null\n    },\n  },\n  // Tool recovery failure: many consecutive tool errors on the same tool\n  {\n    id: 'tool-recovery-failure',\n    match: ({ spans }) => {\n      const tools = spans.filter((s) => s.kind === 'tool')\n      const byTool = new Map<string, Span[]>()\n      for (const t of tools) {\n        const name = (t as Extract<Span, { kind: 'tool' }>).toolName\n        const arr = byTool.get(name) ?? []\n        arr.push(t)\n        byTool.set(name, arr)\n      }\n      for (const [name, arr] of byTool) {\n        const errs = arr.filter((s) => s.status === 'error')\n        if (errs.length >= 3 && errs.length === arr.length) {\n          return {\n            failureClass: 'tool_recovery_failure',\n            reason: `${errs.length} consecutive errors on tool \"${name}\"`,\n            triggerSpanId: errs[errs.length - 1]!.spanId,\n          }\n        }\n      }\n      return null\n    },\n  },\n  // Tool selection error: the run failed and agent called zero tools despite having them\n  {\n    id: 'tool-selection-error',\n    match: ({ run, spans }) => {\n      if (run.outcome?.pass !== false) return null\n      const hasToolsAvailable = spans.some(\n        (s) =>\n          s.kind === 'agent' &&\n          (s.attributes?.toolsAvailable as number | undefined) !== undefined &&\n          (s.attributes?.toolsAvailable as number) > 0,\n      )\n      const tools = spans.filter((s) => s.kind === 'tool')\n      if (hasToolsAvailable && tools.length === 0) {\n        return {\n          failureClass: 'tool_selection_error',\n          reason: 'tools were available but none were called',\n        }\n      }\n      return null\n    },\n  },\n  // Format drift: scored by a judge with dimension='format' below threshold\n  {\n    id: 'format-drift',\n    match: ({ spans }) => {\n      const judge = spans.find(\n        (s) =>\n          s.kind === 'judge' &&\n          (s as Extract<Span, { kind: 'judge' }>).dimension === 'format' &&\n          (s as Extract<Span, { kind: 'judge' }>).score < 0.5,\n      )\n      return judge\n        ? {\n            failureClass: 'format_drift',\n            reason: 'format judge scored below 0.5',\n            triggerSpanId: judge.spanId,\n          }\n        : null\n    },\n  },\n]\n\nfunction hasResolutionStatus(payload: Record<string, unknown>, status: string): boolean {\n  if (status === 'missing_connection' && stringArray(payload.missingConnections).length > 0)\n    return true\n  return resolutionItems(payload).some((item) => item.status === status)\n}\n\nfunction hasMissingScopes(payload: Record<string, unknown>): boolean {\n  if (stringArray(payload.missingScopes).length > 0) return true\n  return resolutionItems(payload).some(\n    (item) => Array.isArray(item.missingScopes) && item.missingScopes.length > 0,\n  )\n}\n\nfunction resolutionItems(payload: Record<string, unknown>): Array<Record<string, unknown>> {\n  return [\n    ...records(payload.missing),\n    ...records(payload.optionalMissing),\n    ...records(payload.ready),\n  ]\n}\n\nfunction records(value: unknown): Array<Record<string, unknown>> {\n  if (!Array.isArray(value)) return []\n  return value.filter(\n    (item): item is Record<string, unknown> =>\n      Boolean(item) && typeof item === 'object' && !Array.isArray(item),\n  )\n}\n\nfunction stringArray(value: unknown): string[] {\n  return Array.isArray(value)\n    ? value.filter((item): item is string => typeof item === 'string')\n    : []\n}\n\n/** Classify the failure mode of a run using an ordered rule list. */\nexport function classifyFailure(\n  ctx: FailureContext,\n  rules: FailureRule[] = DEFAULT_RULES,\n): FailureClassification {\n  if (ctx.run.outcome?.pass !== false && ctx.run.status === 'completed') {\n    return { failureClass: 'success', reason: 'run completed with pass=true (or no explicit fail)' }\n  }\n  for (const rule of rules) {\n    const hit = rule.match(ctx)\n    if (hit) return hit\n  }\n  return { failureClass: 'unknown', reason: 'no rule matched; run failed for unclassified reason' }\n}\n","/**\n * FailureClusterView — groups failed runs by (failureClass, triggerTool,\n * argHash-prefix) so weekly reviews can prioritize the top-N clusters.\n *\n * Each cluster includes: N runs, scenarios affected, representative\n * error message, a proposed mitigation hint (rule → action table).\n */\n\nimport { classifyFailure, DEFAULT_RULES, type FailureRule } from '../failure-taxonomy'\nimport { argHash, toolSpans } from '../trace/query'\nimport type { FailureClass, Span } from '../trace/schema'\nimport type { TraceStore } from '../trace/store'\n\nexport interface FailureCluster {\n  failureClass: FailureClass\n  /** Tool name when the trigger was a tool span, else undefined. */\n  toolName?: string\n  /** First 16 chars of argHash — clusters similar args. */\n  argPrefix?: string\n  /**\n   * Source dimension when the trigger was a judge span (e.g. `'format'`,\n   * `'safety'`, `'correctness'`). Lets cross-template aggregators\n   * group failures by the dimension that fired without overloading\n   * `argPrefix`. Optional — legacy clusters without this field\n   * deserialize cleanly.\n   */\n  dimension?: string\n  runCount: number\n  scenarioIds: string[]\n  exampleError?: string\n  exampleRunId: string\n}\n\nexport interface FailureClusterReport {\n  clusters: FailureCluster[]\n  totalFailures: number\n  totalRuns: number\n}\n\nexport async function failureClusterView(\n  store: TraceStore,\n  options: { rules?: FailureRule[]; minClusterSize?: number } = {},\n): Promise<FailureClusterReport> {\n  const rules = options.rules ?? DEFAULT_RULES\n  const minSize = options.minClusterSize ?? 1\n  const runs = await store.listRuns()\n\n  type Key = string\n  const clusters = new Map<Key, FailureCluster>()\n  let totalFailures = 0\n\n  for (const run of runs) {\n    if (run.status === 'completed' && run.outcome?.pass !== false) continue\n    totalFailures++\n    const spans = await store.spans({ runId: run.runId })\n    const events = await store.events({ runId: run.runId })\n    const cls = classifyFailure({ run, spans, events }, rules)\n\n    let toolName: string | undefined\n    let argPrefix: string | undefined\n    let dimension: string | undefined\n    if (cls.triggerSpanId) {\n      const trig = spans.find((s) => s.spanId === cls.triggerSpanId)\n      if (trig?.kind === 'tool') {\n        toolName = trig.toolName\n        argPrefix = argHash(trig.args).slice(0, 16)\n      } else if (trig?.kind === 'judge') {\n        dimension = trig.dimension\n      }\n    }\n    // Fallback: look at the last errored tool span\n    if (!toolName) {\n      const ts = await toolSpans(store, run.runId)\n      const errored = ts.filter((t) => t.status === 'error').pop()\n      if (errored) {\n        toolName = errored.toolName\n        argPrefix = argHash(errored.args).slice(0, 16)\n      }\n    }\n    // Secondary signal: any judge span on the failed run carries a\n    // dimension. Useful when the rule classified by judge score but\n    // didn't surface the trigger span (or surfaced a non-judge span).\n    if (!dimension) {\n      const judge = spans.find((s) => s.kind === 'judge' && typeof s.dimension === 'string')\n      if (judge?.kind === 'judge') dimension = judge.dimension\n    }\n\n    const key = `${cls.failureClass}|${toolName ?? ''}|${argPrefix ?? ''}|${dimension ?? ''}`\n    let cluster = clusters.get(key)\n    if (!cluster) {\n      cluster = {\n        failureClass: cls.failureClass,\n        toolName,\n        argPrefix,\n        dimension,\n        runCount: 0,\n        scenarioIds: [],\n        exampleRunId: run.runId,\n        exampleError: firstErrorMessage(spans) ?? cls.reason,\n      }\n      clusters.set(key, cluster)\n    }\n    cluster.runCount++\n    if (!cluster.scenarioIds.includes(run.scenarioId)) cluster.scenarioIds.push(run.scenarioId)\n  }\n\n  const arr = [...clusters.values()]\n    .filter((c) => c.runCount >= minSize)\n    .sort((a, b) => b.runCount - a.runCount)\n\n  return { clusters: arr, totalFailures, totalRuns: runs.length }\n}\n\nfunction firstErrorMessage(spans: Span[]): string | undefined {\n  const errored = spans.find((s) => s.status === 'error')\n  return errored?.error\n}\n","/**\n * Tool-use metrics — derived purely from trace data.\n *\n * No scoring assumptions: consumers supply optional ground-truth tool\n * selections per turn + optional \"information used downstream\" signals.\n * Without those, we still compute descriptive metrics (error rate,\n * retry rate, duplicate-call rate) that are useful on their own.\n */\n\nimport { argHash, groupBy, toolSpans } from './trace/query'\nimport type { Span } from './trace/schema'\nimport type { TraceStore } from './trace/store'\n\nexport interface ToolUseMetrics {\n  runId: string\n  totalCalls: number\n  byTool: Record<string, ToolStats>\n  errorRate: number\n  /** Ratio of calls with identical (toolName, argHash) already seen earlier in the same run. */\n  duplicateRate: number\n  /** Ratio of error calls followed by ≥1 retry on same tool. */\n  retryRate: number\n  /** Optional: of the calls agent made, fraction the evaluator marked as \"correct selection\". */\n  selectionAccuracy?: number\n}\n\nexport interface ToolStats {\n  calls: number\n  errors: number\n  avgLatencyMs: number\n  duplicates: number\n}\n\nexport interface ToolUseOptions {\n  /** Map of spanId → whether the evaluator judged the tool selection correct. Optional. */\n  selectionLabels?: Record<string, boolean>\n}\n\nexport async function computeToolUseMetrics(\n  store: TraceStore,\n  runId: string,\n  options: ToolUseOptions = {},\n): Promise<ToolUseMetrics> {\n  const tools = await toolSpans(store, runId)\n  if (tools.length === 0) {\n    return { runId, totalCalls: 0, byTool: {}, errorRate: 0, duplicateRate: 0, retryRate: 0 }\n  }\n\n  const byTool: Record<string, ToolStats> = {}\n  let totalErrors = 0\n  let totalDuplicates = 0\n  const sortedTools = [...tools].sort((a, b) => a.startedAt - b.startedAt)\n  const seenSignatures = new Set<string>()\n\n  // duplicate detection + per-tool aggregation\n  for (const t of sortedTools) {\n    const stat = (byTool[t.toolName] ??= { calls: 0, errors: 0, avgLatencyMs: 0, duplicates: 0 })\n    stat.calls += 1\n    if (t.status === 'error') {\n      stat.errors += 1\n      totalErrors += 1\n    }\n    if (typeof t.latencyMs === 'number') stat.avgLatencyMs += t.latencyMs\n    const sig = `${t.toolName}|${argHash(t.args)}`\n    if (seenSignatures.has(sig)) {\n      stat.duplicates += 1\n      totalDuplicates += 1\n    }\n    seenSignatures.add(sig)\n  }\n\n  for (const stat of Object.values(byTool)) {\n    stat.avgLatencyMs = stat.calls > 0 ? stat.avgLatencyMs / stat.calls : 0\n  }\n\n  // retry detection: per-tool chronological adjacency where error → next same-tool call\n  let retryOpportunities = 0\n  let retriesFollowed = 0\n  for (const [, arr] of groupBy(sortedTools, (t) => t.toolName)) {\n    for (let i = 0; i < arr.length; i++) {\n      if (arr[i]!.status !== 'error') continue\n      retryOpportunities += 1\n      if (arr[i + 1]) retriesFollowed += 1\n    }\n  }\n  const retryRate = retryOpportunities > 0 ? retriesFollowed / retryOpportunities : 0\n\n  let selectionAccuracy: number | undefined\n  if (options.selectionLabels) {\n    const labeled = sortedTools.filter((t) => t.spanId in options.selectionLabels!)\n    if (labeled.length > 0) {\n      selectionAccuracy =\n        labeled.filter((t) => options.selectionLabels![t.spanId]).length / labeled.length\n    }\n  }\n\n  return {\n    runId,\n    totalCalls: sortedTools.length,\n    byTool,\n    errorRate: totalErrors / sortedTools.length,\n    duplicateRate: totalDuplicates / sortedTools.length,\n    retryRate,\n    selectionAccuracy,\n  }\n}\n\nexport type { Span }\n","/**\n * Baseline regression detection.\n *\n * Lifted from ADC baseline.ts. Every promotion-blocking signal boils down\n * to: \"is this run measurably worse than baseline?\" — with enough\n * statistical rigor to distinguish noise from drift.\n *\n * Uses:\n *   - Welch's t-test (unequal variance) for per-metric mean comparison\n *   - Cohen's d for effect size magnitude\n *   - IQR for stability flag (unstable samples can't be trusted for comparisons)\n *\n * Returns a structured verdict: improved | regressed | stable | unstable.\n */\n\nimport { cohensD } from './statistics'\n\nexport interface MetricSamples {\n  /** Stable metric key (e.g. \"overallScore\", \"firstTokenMs\"). */\n  metric: string\n  /** Whether higher values are better. */\n  higherIsBetter: boolean\n  baseline: number[]\n  candidate: number[]\n}\n\nexport interface MetricVerdict {\n  metric: string\n  baselineMean: number\n  candidateMean: number\n  delta: number\n  cohensD: number\n  welchT: number\n  welchDf: number\n  welchP: number\n  stable: boolean\n  /** IQR of the combined samples — used as a rough stability indicator. */\n  iqr: number\n  verdict: 'improved' | 'regressed' | 'stable' | 'unstable'\n}\n\nexport interface BaselineReport {\n  metrics: MetricVerdict[]\n  /** True if any critical metric regressed. */\n  hasRegression: boolean\n  /** True if any metric is unstable (too noisy to judge). */\n  hasUnstable: boolean\n}\n\nexport interface BaselineOptions {\n  /** Effect size threshold for meaningful delta (default 0.5 — medium effect). */\n  effectThreshold?: number\n  /** p-value threshold for statistical significance (default 0.05). */\n  alpha?: number\n  /** IQR/mean ratio above which samples are flagged unstable (default 0.30). */\n  unstableCvThreshold?: number\n}\n\n/**\n * Compare candidate samples against baseline per metric. Verdict logic:\n *   - unstable: IQR/|mean| > threshold on either set — not enough signal\n *   - improved: meaningful effect in the \"better\" direction AND p < alpha\n *   - regressed: meaningful effect in the \"worse\" direction AND p < alpha\n *   - stable: otherwise (no significant change)\n */\nexport function compareToBaseline(\n  samples: MetricSamples[],\n  options: BaselineOptions = {},\n): BaselineReport {\n  const effectThreshold = options.effectThreshold ?? 0.5\n  const alpha = options.alpha ?? 0.05\n  const cvThreshold = options.unstableCvThreshold ?? 0.3\n\n  const metrics: MetricVerdict[] = samples.map((s) => {\n    if (s.baseline.length < 2 || s.candidate.length < 2) {\n      throw new Error(`compareToBaseline: need ≥2 samples per side for \"${s.metric}\"`)\n    }\n    const bMean = mean(s.baseline)\n    const cMean = mean(s.candidate)\n    const delta = cMean - bMean\n    const d = cohensD(s.baseline, s.candidate) // positive = candidate higher\n    const { t, df, p } = welchsTTest(s.baseline, s.candidate)\n    // Stability is per-side: a comparison is trustworthy only when BOTH\n    // samples are internally consistent. Combining the sides would flag\n    // large-but-real deltas as \"unstable\" which is exactly what we want\n    // to detect.\n    const baselineIqr = iqr(s.baseline)\n    const candidateIqr = iqr(s.candidate)\n    const baselineStable = baselineIqr / Math.max(Math.abs(bMean), 1e-9) <= cvThreshold\n    const candidateStable = candidateIqr / Math.max(Math.abs(cMean), 1e-9) <= cvThreshold\n    const stable = baselineStable && candidateStable\n    const reportedIqr = Math.max(baselineIqr, candidateIqr)\n\n    let verdict: MetricVerdict['verdict']\n    if (!stable) {\n      verdict = 'unstable'\n    } else if (p < alpha && Math.abs(d) >= effectThreshold) {\n      const candidateIsBetter = s.higherIsBetter ? delta > 0 : delta < 0\n      verdict = candidateIsBetter ? 'improved' : 'regressed'\n    } else {\n      verdict = 'stable'\n    }\n\n    return {\n      metric: s.metric,\n      baselineMean: bMean,\n      candidateMean: cMean,\n      delta,\n      cohensD: d,\n      welchT: t,\n      welchDf: df,\n      welchP: p,\n      stable,\n      iqr: reportedIqr,\n      verdict,\n    }\n  })\n\n  return {\n    metrics,\n    hasRegression: metrics.some((m) => m.verdict === 'regressed'),\n    hasUnstable: metrics.some((m) => m.verdict === 'unstable'),\n  }\n}\n\nfunction mean(xs: number[]): number {\n  return xs.reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0) / xs.length\n}\n\n/** Inter-quartile range; 0 when the sample has no spread. */\nexport function iqr(xs: number[]): number {\n  if (xs.length === 0) return 0\n  const sorted = [...xs].sort((a, b) => a - b)\n  const q = (p: number) => {\n    const idx = p * (sorted.length - 1)\n    const lo = Math.floor(idx)\n    const hi = Math.ceil(idx)\n    return sorted[lo]! + (sorted[hi]! - sorted[lo]!) * (idx - lo)\n  }\n  return q(0.75) - q(0.25)\n}\n\n/**\n * Welch's t-test — unequal-variance two-sample t. 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