@tangle-network/agent-eval 0.23.1 → 0.24.0

package/dist/{chunk-AXHNWLIX.js → chunk-YRZ4M5GS.js}

@@ -152,95 +152,7 @@ function makeRng(seed) {
   };
 }
 
-// src/sequential.ts
-function pairedEvalueSequence(deltas, opts = {}) {
-  const c = opts.bound ?? 1;
-  const alpha = opts.alpha ?? 0.05;
-  const initialShrink = opts.initialBetShrinkage ?? 0.5;
-  const rope = opts.rope ?? null;
-  if (c <= 0) throw new Error("pairedEvalueSequence: bound must be > 0");
-  if (alpha <= 0 || alpha >= 1) throw new Error("pairedEvalueSequence: alpha must be in (0,1)");
-  if (rope && !(Number.isFinite(rope.low) && Number.isFinite(rope.high) && rope.low <= rope.high)) {
-    throw new Error("pairedEvalueSequence: rope must satisfy low \u2264 high");
-  }
-  const steps = [];
-  let clipped = false;
-  let evalue = 1;
-  let decisionFiredAt = null;
-  let sum = 0;
-  let sumSq = 0;
-  let count = 0;
-  for (let i = 0; i < deltas.length; i++) {
-    let d = deltas[i];
-    if (d < -c || d > c) {
-      d = Math.max(-c, Math.min(c, d));
-      clipped = true;
-    }
-    const muHat = count === 0 ? 0 : sum / count;
-    const varHat = count === 0 ? c * c : Math.max(1e-12, sumSq / count - muHat * muHat);
-    const t = i + 1;
-    const shrink = initialShrink * Math.min(1, count / 32);
-    let lambda = muHat / (varHat + c * c) * shrink;
-    const lambdaMax = 0.99 / c;
-    if (lambda > lambdaMax) lambda = lambdaMax;
-    if (lambda < -lambdaMax) lambda = -lambdaMax;
-    evalue = evalue * (1 + lambda * d);
-    if (!Number.isFinite(evalue) || evalue < 0) evalue = 0;
-    sum += d;
-    sumSq += d * d;
-    count += 1;
-    const pValue = Math.min(1, 1 / Math.max(evalue, 1e-300));
-    const cs = empiricalBernsteinCs(sum, sumSq, count, c, alpha);
-    let decision = "continue";
-    if (rope && cs.low >= rope.low && cs.high <= rope.high) decision = "equivalent";
-    else if (evalue >= 2 / alpha && muHat > 0) decision = "promote_now";
-    else if (evalue >= 2 / alpha && muHat < 0) decision = "reject_now";
-    else if (rope && cs.high < rope.low) decision = "reject_now";
-    if (decision !== "continue" && decisionFiredAt === null) decisionFiredAt = t;
-    steps.push({ t, delta: d, evalue, pValue, csLow: cs.low, csHigh: cs.high, decision });
-  }
-  const finalDecision = steps.length === 0 ? "continue" : steps[steps.length - 1].decision;
-  return { steps, finalDecision, decisionFiredAt, clipped };
-}
-function evaluateInterimReleaseConfidence(input) {
-  const candidates = input.deltaSeries.map((s) => {
-    const seq = pairedEvalueSequence(s.deltas, {
-      alpha: input.alpha,
-      bound: input.bound,
-      rope: input.rope
-    });
-    const last = seq.steps[seq.steps.length - 1];
-    return {
-      candidateId: s.candidateId,
-      decision: seq.finalDecision,
-      decisionFiredAt: seq.decisionFiredAt,
-      finalEvalue: last?.evalue ?? 1,
-      finalPValue: last?.pValue ?? 1,
-      pairs: seq.steps.length,
-      csLow: last?.csLow ?? Number.NEGATIVE_INFINITY,
-      csHigh: last?.csHigh ?? Number.POSITIVE_INFINITY
-    };
-  });
-  const promote = candidates.find((c) => c.decision === "promote_now");
-  if (promote) return { candidates, recommendation: { decision: "promote_now", candidateId: promote.candidateId } };
-  const live = candidates.find((c) => c.decision === "continue");
-  if (live) return { candidates, recommendation: { decision: "continue", candidateId: null } };
-  const equiv = candidates.find((c) => c.decision === "equivalent");
-  if (equiv) return { candidates, recommendation: { decision: "equivalent", candidateId: equiv.candidateId } };
-  return { candidates, recommendation: { decision: "reject_now", candidateId: null } };
-}
-function empiricalBernsteinCs(sum, sumSq, n, bound, alpha) {
-  if (n === 0) return { low: -bound, high: bound };
-  const mean = sum / n;
-  const variance = Math.max(0, sumSq / n - mean * mean);
-  const psi = Math.log(2 / alpha) + 1.7 * Math.log(Math.log(Math.max(Math.E, n)) + 1);
-  const radius = Math.sqrt(2 * variance * psi / n) + 3 * bound * psi / n;
-  return { low: mean - radius, high: mean + radius };
-}
-
 export {
-  rubricPredictiveValidity,
-  pairedEvalueSequence,
-  evaluateInterimReleaseConfidence
+  rubricPredictiveValidity
 };
-//# sourceMappingURL=chunk-AXHNWLIX.js.map
+//# sourceMappingURL=chunk-YRZ4M5GS.js.map

package/dist/chunk-YRZ4M5GS.js.map

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+{"version":3,"sources":["../src/meta-eval/rubric-predictive-validity.ts"],"sourcesContent":["/**\n * Rubric predictive validity — does our eval rubric predict deployment\n * outcomes?\n *\n * `correlationStudy` (already in this package) joins a `TraceStore` to an\n * `OutcomeStore` and computes Pearson + Spearman + bootstrap CI for each\n * (eval-metric, outcome-metric) pair. That answers \"does X correlate with\n * Y at all.\" `rubricPredictiveValidity` is the campaign-shaped wrapper\n * around it: take a sequence of `RunRecord`s (the canonical campaign\n * artifact) and a `DeploymentOutcomeStore`, join on `runId`, return a\n * ranked verdict on every rubric whose dimension scores were captured in\n * `outcome.raw`.\n *\n * The point — quoting the methodology doc — is that **without this loop\n * every rubric is faith-based**. Once it's wired, you know which rubrics\n * have earned their promotion power and which ones are decoration.\n *\n *   const validity = await rubricPredictiveValidity({\n *     runs: lastQuarter,\n *     outcomes: shipFlagOutcomeStore,\n *     outcomeMetrics: ['revenue_lift', 'retention_30d', 'csat'],\n *     rubrics: ['anti_slop', 'semantic_concept', 'tool_recovery'],\n *   })\n *   for (const r of validity.ranked) {\n *     console.log(`${r.rubric} → ${r.bestOutcome}: ρ=${r.spearman.toFixed(2)}`)\n *   }\n *\n * The function is intentionally read-only. Use the verdict to deprecate\n * decorative rubrics, re-weight composite scores, or trigger a\n * recalibration sweep when predictive validity drops below a threshold.\n */\n\nimport type { RunRecord } from '../run-record'\nimport type { DeploymentOutcome, OutcomeStore } from './outcome-store'\n\nexport interface RubricPredictiveValidityInput {\n  /**\n   * Canonical campaign output. Each record's `outcome.raw[<rubricId>]`\n   * provides the eval score; missing keys are silently skipped per pair.\n   */\n  runs: RunRecord[]\n  outcomes: OutcomeStore\n  /**\n   * Outcome metric names to evaluate against. Each must appear in at\n   * least one `DeploymentOutcome.metrics` keyspace; pairs with too few\n   * joined samples are excluded from the result.\n   */\n  outcomeMetrics: string[]\n  /**\n   * Rubric ids to evaluate. Must appear as keys in `RunRecord.outcome.raw`.\n   * If omitted, every numeric key in `outcome.raw` across the run set is\n   * treated as a rubric.\n   */\n  rubrics?: string[]\n  /** Minimum joined-sample count before a pair is reported. Default 8. */\n  minSamples?: number\n  /** Bootstrap resamples for CI. Default 500. */\n  bootstrapResamples?: number\n  /** Random seed for the bootstrap (mulberry32). Default unset (Math.random). */\n  seed?: number\n  /**\n   * Reduction when multiple outcomes attach to one runId. Default `'latest'`\n   * (most recently captured).\n   */\n  reduction?: 'latest' | 'mean' | 'max'\n}\n\nexport interface RubricOutcomePair {\n  rubric: string\n  outcome: string\n  n: number\n  pearson: number\n  spearman: number\n  ci95: { low: number; high: number }\n  /**\n   * Verdict bucket. `load_bearing` ≥ 0.7, `informative` ≥ 0.4,\n   * `decorative` < 0.4 in absolute correlation. A negative correlation\n   * with a desired outcome is also `decorative` — actively misleading\n   * is worse than uninformative.\n   */\n  verdict: 'load_bearing' | 'informative' | 'decorative'\n}\n\nexport interface RubricRanking {\n  rubric: string\n  /** Outcome metric this rubric correlated best with. */\n  bestOutcome: string\n  spearman: number\n  pearson: number\n  n: number\n  verdict: RubricOutcomePair['verdict']\n}\n\nexport interface RubricPredictiveValidityReport {\n  pairs: RubricOutcomePair[]\n  /** Per-rubric best pair, sorted descending by |spearman|. */\n  ranked: RubricRanking[]\n  joinedSamples: number\n  skippedRuns: number\n  /** Rubrics that were declared but never produced a usable score. */\n  rubricsWithoutData: string[]\n}\n\nexport async function rubricPredictiveValidity(\n  input: RubricPredictiveValidityInput,\n): Promise<RubricPredictiveValidityReport> {\n  const minSamples = input.minSamples ?? 8\n  const reduction = input.reduction ?? 'latest'\n  const resamples = input.bootstrapResamples ?? 500\n  const rng = makeRng(input.seed)\n\n  const outcomes = await input.outcomes.list()\n  const outcomesByRun = new Map<string, DeploymentOutcome[]>()\n  for (const o of outcomes) {\n    const arr = outcomesByRun.get(o.runId) ?? []\n    arr.push(o)\n    outcomesByRun.set(o.runId, arr)\n  }\n\n  // Discover rubrics: caller-declared OR every numeric key in outcome.raw\n  // observed across runs.\n  const observedRubrics = new Set<string>()\n  for (const r of input.runs) {\n    for (const k of Object.keys(r.outcome.raw)) observedRubrics.add(k)\n  }\n  const rubrics = input.rubrics ?? [...observedRubrics]\n\n  // Collect aligned (x, y) pairs per (rubric, outcome).\n  type Bucket = { rubric: string; outcome: string; xs: number[]; ys: number[] }\n  const buckets: Bucket[] = []\n  for (const r of rubrics) {\n    for (const o of input.outcomeMetrics) {\n      buckets.push({ rubric: r, outcome: o, xs: [], ys: [] })\n    }\n  }\n\n  let joined = 0\n  let skipped = 0\n  for (const run of input.runs) {\n    const os = outcomesByRun.get(run.runId)\n    if (!os || os.length === 0) {\n      skipped++\n      continue\n    }\n    let joinedThisRun = false\n    for (const r of rubrics) {\n      const x = run.outcome.raw[r]\n      if (typeof x !== 'number' || !Number.isFinite(x)) continue\n      for (const o of input.outcomeMetrics) {\n        const values = os\n          .map((row) => row.metrics[o])\n          .filter((v): v is number => typeof v === 'number' && Number.isFinite(v))\n        if (values.length === 0) continue\n        const y = reduce(values, os, o, reduction)\n        if (y === null) continue\n        const bucket = buckets.find((b) => b.rubric === r && b.outcome === o)!\n        bucket.xs.push(x)\n        bucket.ys.push(y)\n        joinedThisRun = true\n      }\n    }\n    if (joinedThisRun) joined++\n  }\n\n  const pairs: RubricOutcomePair[] = []\n  for (const b of buckets) {\n    if (b.xs.length < minSamples) continue\n    const pearson = pearsonR(b.xs, b.ys)\n    const spearman = pearsonR(rankWithTies(b.xs), rankWithTies(b.ys))\n    const ci = bootstrapCi(b.xs, b.ys, resamples, rng)\n    const verdict: RubricOutcomePair['verdict'] =\n      Math.abs(spearman) >= 0.7\n        ? 'load_bearing'\n        : Math.abs(spearman) >= 0.4\n          ? 'informative'\n          : 'decorative'\n    pairs.push({\n      rubric: b.rubric,\n      outcome: b.outcome,\n      n: b.xs.length,\n      pearson,\n      spearman,\n      ci95: ci,\n      verdict,\n    })\n  }\n\n  const byRubric = new Map<string, RubricOutcomePair[]>()\n  for (const p of pairs) {\n    const arr = byRubric.get(p.rubric) ?? []\n    arr.push(p)\n    byRubric.set(p.rubric, arr)\n  }\n  const ranked: RubricRanking[] = [...byRubric.entries()]\n    .map(([rubric, ps]) => {\n      const best = ps.reduce((a, b) => (Math.abs(b.spearman) > Math.abs(a.spearman) ? b : a))\n      return {\n        rubric,\n        bestOutcome: best.outcome,\n        spearman: best.spearman,\n        pearson: best.pearson,\n        n: best.n,\n        verdict: best.verdict,\n      }\n    })\n    .sort((a, b) => Math.abs(b.spearman) - Math.abs(a.spearman))\n\n  const rubricsWithoutData = rubrics.filter((r) => !byRubric.has(r))\n\n  return { pairs, ranked, joinedSamples: joined, skippedRuns: skipped, rubricsWithoutData }\n}\n\n// ── Helpers ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────\n\nfunction reduce(\n  values: number[],\n  outcomes: DeploymentOutcome[],\n  metric: string,\n  kind: 'latest' | 'mean' | 'max',\n): number | null {\n  if (values.length === 0) return null\n  if (kind === 'mean') return values.reduce((s, v) => s + v, 0) / values.length\n  if (kind === 'max') return Math.max(...values)\n  // 'latest'\n  const sorted = [...outcomes]\n    .filter((o) => typeof o.metrics[metric] === 'number')\n    .sort((a, b) => b.capturedAt - a.capturedAt)\n  return sorted[0]?.metrics[metric] ?? null\n}\n\nfunction pearsonR(a: number[], b: number[]): number {\n  if (a.length !== b.length || a.length < 2) return Number.NaN\n  const ma = a.reduce((s, v) => s + v, 0) / a.length\n  const mb = b.reduce((s, v) => s + v, 0) / b.length\n  let num = 0,\n    da = 0,\n    db = 0\n  for (let i = 0; i < a.length; i++) {\n    const xa = a[i]! - ma\n    const xb = b[i]! - mb\n    num += xa * xb\n    da += xa * xa\n    db += xb * xb\n  }\n  if (da === 0 || db === 0) return da === 0 && db === 0 ? 1 : 0\n  return num / Math.sqrt(da * db)\n}\n\nfunction rankWithTies(xs: number[]): number[] {\n  const indexed = xs.map((v, i) => ({ v, i })).sort((a, b) => a.v - b.v)\n  const r = new Array<number>(xs.length)\n  for (let i = 0; i < indexed.length; ) {\n    let j = i\n    while (j + 1 < indexed.length && indexed[j + 1]!.v === indexed[i]!.v) j++\n    const avg = (i + j + 2) / 2\n    for (let k = i; k <= j; k++) r[indexed[k]!.i] = avg\n    i = j + 1\n  }\n  return r\n}\n\nfunction bootstrapCi(\n  xs: number[],\n  ys: number[],\n  iterations: number,\n  rng: () => number,\n): { low: number; high: number } {\n  const n = xs.length\n  if (n < 3) return { low: Number.NaN, high: Number.NaN }\n  const samples: number[] = []\n  for (let b = 0; b < iterations; b++) {\n    const rx = new Array<number>(n)\n    const ry = new Array<number>(n)\n    for (let i = 0; i < n; i++) {\n      const idx = Math.floor(rng() * n)\n      rx[i] = xs[idx]!\n      ry[i] = ys[idx]!\n    }\n    const r = pearsonR(rx, ry)\n    if (Number.isFinite(r)) samples.push(r)\n  }\n  samples.sort((a, b) => a - b)\n  if (samples.length === 0) return { low: Number.NaN, high: Number.NaN }\n  return {\n    low: samples[Math.floor(0.025 * samples.length)]!,\n    high: samples[Math.min(samples.length - 1, Math.floor(0.975 * samples.length))]!,\n  }\n}\n\nfunction makeRng(seed?: number): () => number {\n  if (seed === undefined) return Math.random\n  let s = seed >>> 0\n  return () => {\n    s = (s + 0x6d2b79f5) >>> 0\n    let t = s\n    t = Math.imul(t ^ (t >>> 15), t | 1)\n    t ^= t + Math.imul(t ^ (t >>> 7), t | 61)\n    return ((t ^ (t >>> 14)) >>> 0) / 4294967296\n  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