@tangle-network/agent-eval 0.22.0 → 0.23.1

package/dist/chunk-UAND2LOT.js.map

@@ -1 +0,0 @@
-{"version":3,"sources":["../src/release-confidence.ts","../src/meta-eval/rubric-predictive-validity.ts","../src/sequential.ts","../src/release-report.ts","../src/promotion-gate.ts"],"sourcesContent":["/**\n * Release confidence gate.\n *\n * This is the production-facing composition layer over the lower-level\n * primitives:\n *   - Dataset manifests prove corpus/version coverage.\n *   - RunRecord rows prove reproducible search/holdout outcomes.\n *   - Multi-shot trace evidence carries turn counts and ASI diagnostics.\n *   - HeldOutGate decisions remain the paired promotion authority.\n *\n * The gate is intentionally pure and conservative. Missing declared evidence\n * fails closed instead of being treated as a neutral zero.\n */\n\nimport type { DatasetManifest, DatasetScenario, DatasetSplit } from './dataset'\nimport type { GateDecision } from './held-out-gate'\nimport type { ActionableSideInfo, MultiShotTrialResult } from './multi-shot-optimization'\nimport type { RunRecord, RunSplitTag } from './run-record'\n\nexport type ReleaseConfidenceStatus = 'pass' | 'warn' | 'fail'\nexport type ReleaseConfidenceAxisName =\n  | 'corpus'\n  | 'quality'\n  | 'generalization'\n  | 'diagnostics'\n  | 'efficiency'\n\nexport interface ReleaseTraceEvidence {\n  scenarioId: string\n  candidateId?: string\n  split?: RunSplitTag\n  score?: number\n  ok?: boolean\n  turnCount?: number\n  costUsd?: number\n  durationMs?: number\n  failureMode?: string\n  asi?: ActionableSideInfo[]\n  metadata?: Record<string, unknown>\n}\n\nexport interface ReleaseConfidenceThresholds {\n  /** Require a Dataset manifest or explicit scenarios. Default true. */\n  requireCorpus?: boolean\n  minScenarioCount?: number\n  minSearchRuns?: number\n  minHoldoutRuns?: number\n  /** Require at least one holdout scenario/run. Default true. */\n  requireHoldout?: boolean\n  minPassRate?: number\n  minMeanScore?: number\n  /** Search mean may exceed holdout mean by at most this much. */\n  maxOverfitGap?: number\n  maxMeanCostUsd?: number\n  maxP95WallMs?: number\n  /** Low-score/failed rows must carry ASI. Default true. */\n  requireAsiForFailures?: boolean\n  /** Score below this is considered a failure for ASI coverage. Default 0.5. */\n  failureScoreThreshold?: number\n}\n\nexport interface ReleaseConfidenceInput {\n  target: string\n  candidateId?: string\n  baselineId?: string\n  dataset?: DatasetManifest\n  scenarios?: readonly DatasetScenario[]\n  runs?: readonly RunRecord[]\n  traces?: readonly ReleaseTraceEvidence[]\n  gateDecision?: GateDecision | null\n  thresholds?: ReleaseConfidenceThresholds\n}\n\nexport interface ReleaseConfidenceAxis {\n  name: ReleaseConfidenceAxisName\n  status: ReleaseConfidenceStatus\n  score: number\n  detail: string\n}\n\nexport interface ReleaseConfidenceIssue {\n  axis: ReleaseConfidenceAxisName\n  severity: 'critical' | 'warning'\n  code: string\n  detail: string\n}\n\nexport interface ReleaseConfidenceMetrics {\n  scenarioCount: number\n  searchRuns: number\n  holdoutRuns: number\n  passRate: number\n  meanScore: number\n  searchMeanScore: number\n  holdoutMeanScore: number\n  overfitGap: number\n  meanCostUsd: number\n  p95WallMs: number\n  failedRows: number\n  failuresWithAsi: number\n  singleShotTraces: number\n  multiShotTraces: number\n  splitCounts: Record<DatasetSplit, number>\n  domainCounts: Record<string, number>\n  failureModeCounts: Record<string, number>\n  responsibleSurfaceCounts: Record<string, number>\n}\n\nexport interface ReleaseConfidenceScorecard {\n  target: string\n  candidateId: string | null\n  baselineId: string | null\n  status: ReleaseConfidenceStatus\n  promote: boolean\n  axes: ReleaseConfidenceAxis[]\n  issues: ReleaseConfidenceIssue[]\n  metrics: ReleaseConfidenceMetrics\n  dataset: DatasetManifest | null\n  gateDecision: GateDecision | null\n  summary: string\n}\n\nconst DEFAULT_THRESHOLDS: Required<ReleaseConfidenceThresholds> = {\n  requireCorpus: true,\n  minScenarioCount: 1,\n  minSearchRuns: 1,\n  minHoldoutRuns: 1,\n  requireHoldout: true,\n  minPassRate: 0.8,\n  minMeanScore: 0.7,\n  maxOverfitGap: 0.15,\n  maxMeanCostUsd: Number.POSITIVE_INFINITY,\n  maxP95WallMs: Number.POSITIVE_INFINITY,\n  requireAsiForFailures: true,\n  failureScoreThreshold: 0.5,\n}\n\nexport function releaseTraceEvidenceFromMultiShotTrials(\n  trials: readonly MultiShotTrialResult[],\n): ReleaseTraceEvidence[] {\n  return trials.map((trial) => ({\n    scenarioId: trial.scenarioId,\n    candidateId: trial.variantId,\n    split: trial.split === 'holdout' ? 'holdout' : trial.split === 'dev' ? 'dev' : 'search',\n    score: trial.score,\n    ok: trial.ok,\n    turnCount: Array.isArray(trial.trace?.turns) ? trial.trace.turns.length : undefined,\n    costUsd: trial.cost,\n    durationMs: trial.durationMs,\n    failureMode: trial.error ? 'runtime_error' : undefined,\n    asi: trial.asi,\n    metadata: trial.metadata,\n  }))\n}\n\nexport function evaluateReleaseConfidence(input: ReleaseConfidenceInput): ReleaseConfidenceScorecard {\n  const thresholds = { ...DEFAULT_THRESHOLDS, ...input.thresholds }\n  const candidateId = input.candidateId ?? null\n  const runs = filterCandidate(input.runs ?? [], candidateId, input.baselineId)\n  const traces = filterTraceCandidate(input.traces ?? [], candidateId, input.baselineId)\n  const scenarios = input.scenarios ?? []\n  const scenarioCount = input.dataset?.scenarioCount ?? scenarios.length\n  const splitCounts = input.dataset?.splitCounts ?? countScenarioSplits(scenarios)\n  const searchScores = scoresFor(runs, 'search')\n  const holdoutScores = scoresFor(runs, 'holdout')\n  const allScores = [...searchScores, ...holdoutScores]\n  const traceScores = traces.map((t) => t.score).filter(isFiniteNumber)\n  const scoreUniverse = allScores.length > 0 ? allScores : traceScores\n  const searchRuns = runs.filter((r) => r.splitTag === 'search').length\n  const holdoutRuns = runs.filter((r) => r.splitTag === 'holdout').length\n  const searchMeanScore = mean(searchScores)\n  const holdoutMeanScore = mean(holdoutScores)\n  const metrics: ReleaseConfidenceMetrics = {\n    scenarioCount,\n    searchRuns,\n    holdoutRuns,\n    passRate: passRate(runs, traces, thresholds.failureScoreThreshold),\n    meanScore: mean(scoreUniverse),\n    searchMeanScore,\n    holdoutMeanScore,\n    overfitGap: safeDiff(searchMeanScore, holdoutMeanScore),\n    meanCostUsd: mean([...runs.map((r) => r.costUsd), ...traces.map((t) => t.costUsd).filter(isFiniteNumber)]),\n    p95WallMs: percentile([...runs.map((r) => r.wallMs), ...traces.map((t) => t.durationMs).filter(isFiniteNumber)], 0.95),\n    failedRows: failedRows(runs, traces, thresholds.failureScoreThreshold).length,\n    failuresWithAsi: failedRows(runs, traces, thresholds.failureScoreThreshold).filter((row) => row.hasAsi).length,\n    singleShotTraces: traces.filter((t) => t.turnCount === 1).length,\n    multiShotTraces: traces.filter((t) => (t.turnCount ?? 0) > 1).length,\n    splitCounts,\n    domainCounts: countDomains(scenarios),\n    failureModeCounts: countFailureModes(runs, traces, thresholds.failureScoreThreshold),\n    responsibleSurfaceCounts: countResponsibleSurfaces(traces),\n  }\n\n  const issues: ReleaseConfidenceIssue[] = []\n  checkCorpus(input, thresholds, metrics, issues)\n  checkQuality(thresholds, metrics, issues)\n  checkGeneralization(input.gateDecision ?? null, thresholds, metrics, issues)\n  checkDiagnostics(thresholds, metrics, issues)\n  checkEfficiency(thresholds, metrics, issues)\n\n  const axes = buildAxes(metrics, thresholds, input.gateDecision ?? null, issues)\n  const status = issues.some((i) => i.severity === 'critical') ? 'fail'\n    : issues.length > 0 ? 'warn'\n    : 'pass'\n\n  return {\n    target: input.target,\n    candidateId,\n    baselineId: input.baselineId ?? null,\n    status,\n    promote: status === 'pass' && (input.gateDecision ? input.gateDecision.promote : true),\n    axes,\n    issues,\n    metrics,\n    dataset: input.dataset ?? null,\n    gateDecision: input.gateDecision ?? null,\n    summary: renderSummary(input.target, status, metrics, issues),\n  }\n}\n\nexport function assertReleaseConfidence(input: ReleaseConfidenceInput): ReleaseConfidenceScorecard {\n  const scorecard = evaluateReleaseConfidence(input)\n  if (scorecard.status === 'fail') {\n    throw new Error(scorecard.summary)\n  }\n  return scorecard\n}\n\nfunction filterCandidate(\n  runs: readonly RunRecord[],\n  candidateId: string | null,\n  baselineId?: string,\n): RunRecord[] {\n  if (candidateId) return runs.filter((r) => r.candidateId === candidateId)\n  if (baselineId) return runs.filter((r) => r.candidateId !== baselineId)\n  return [...runs]\n}\n\nfunction filterTraceCandidate(\n  traces: readonly ReleaseTraceEvidence[],\n  candidateId: string | null,\n  baselineId?: string,\n): ReleaseTraceEvidence[] {\n  if (candidateId) return traces.filter((t) => t.candidateId === undefined || t.candidateId === candidateId)\n  if (baselineId) return traces.filter((t) => t.candidateId === undefined || t.candidateId !== baselineId)\n  return [...traces]\n}\n\nfunction checkCorpus(\n  input: ReleaseConfidenceInput,\n  thresholds: Required<ReleaseConfidenceThresholds>,\n  metrics: ReleaseConfidenceMetrics,\n  issues: ReleaseConfidenceIssue[],\n): void {\n  if (thresholds.requireCorpus && !input.dataset && (input.scenarios?.length ?? 0) === 0) {\n    issues.push({ axis: 'corpus', severity: 'critical', code: 'missing_corpus', detail: 'No Dataset manifest or scenarios supplied.' })\n  }\n  if (metrics.scenarioCount < thresholds.minScenarioCount) {\n    issues.push({ axis: 'corpus', severity: 'critical', code: 'few_scenarios', detail: `${metrics.scenarioCount} scenario(s) < min ${thresholds.minScenarioCount}.` })\n  }\n  if (thresholds.requireHoldout && metrics.splitCounts.holdout === 0) {\n    issues.push({ axis: 'corpus', severity: 'critical', code: 'missing_holdout_split', detail: 'Corpus has no holdout scenarios.' })\n  }\n}\n\nfunction checkQuality(\n  thresholds: Required<ReleaseConfidenceThresholds>,\n  metrics: ReleaseConfidenceMetrics,\n  issues: ReleaseConfidenceIssue[],\n): void {\n  if (metrics.searchRuns < thresholds.minSearchRuns) {\n    issues.push({ axis: 'quality', severity: 'critical', code: 'few_search_runs', detail: `${metrics.searchRuns} search run(s) < min ${thresholds.minSearchRuns}.` })\n  }\n  if (metrics.passRate < thresholds.minPassRate) {\n    issues.push({ axis: 'quality', severity: 'critical', code: 'low_pass_rate', detail: `passRate ${fmt(metrics.passRate)} < ${fmt(thresholds.minPassRate)}.` })\n  }\n  if (metrics.meanScore < thresholds.minMeanScore) {\n    issues.push({ axis: 'quality', severity: 'critical', code: 'low_mean_score', detail: `meanScore ${fmt(metrics.meanScore)} < ${fmt(thresholds.minMeanScore)}.` })\n  }\n}\n\nfunction checkGeneralization(\n  gateDecision: GateDecision | null,\n  thresholds: Required<ReleaseConfidenceThresholds>,\n  metrics: ReleaseConfidenceMetrics,\n  issues: ReleaseConfidenceIssue[],\n): void {\n  if (thresholds.requireHoldout && metrics.holdoutRuns < thresholds.minHoldoutRuns) {\n    issues.push({ axis: 'generalization', severity: 'critical', code: 'few_holdout_runs', detail: `${metrics.holdoutRuns} holdout run(s) < min ${thresholds.minHoldoutRuns}.` })\n  }\n  if (Number.isFinite(metrics.overfitGap) && metrics.overfitGap > thresholds.maxOverfitGap) {\n    issues.push({ axis: 'generalization', severity: 'critical', code: 'overfit_gap', detail: `search-holdout gap ${fmt(metrics.overfitGap)} > ${fmt(thresholds.maxOverfitGap)}.` })\n  }\n  if (gateDecision && !gateDecision.promote) {\n    issues.push({ axis: 'generalization', severity: 'critical', code: `gate_${gateDecision.rejectionCode ?? 'reject'}`, detail: gateDecision.reason })\n  }\n}\n\nfunction checkDiagnostics(\n  thresholds: Required<ReleaseConfidenceThresholds>,\n  metrics: ReleaseConfidenceMetrics,\n  issues: ReleaseConfidenceIssue[],\n): void {\n  if (!thresholds.requireAsiForFailures) return\n  if (metrics.failedRows > metrics.failuresWithAsi) {\n    issues.push({\n      axis: 'diagnostics',\n      severity: 'critical',\n      code: 'missing_failure_asi',\n      detail: `${metrics.failedRows - metrics.failuresWithAsi} failed row(s) have no actionable side information.`,\n    })\n  }\n}\n\nfunction checkEfficiency(\n  thresholds: Required<ReleaseConfidenceThresholds>,\n  metrics: ReleaseConfidenceMetrics,\n  issues: ReleaseConfidenceIssue[],\n): void {\n  if (metrics.meanCostUsd > thresholds.maxMeanCostUsd) {\n    issues.push({ axis: 'efficiency', severity: 'critical', code: 'cost_budget', detail: `meanCostUsd ${fmt(metrics.meanCostUsd)} > ${fmt(thresholds.maxMeanCostUsd)}.` })\n  }\n  if (metrics.p95WallMs > thresholds.maxP95WallMs) {\n    issues.push({ axis: 'efficiency', severity: 'critical', code: 'latency_budget', detail: `p95WallMs ${fmt(metrics.p95WallMs)} > ${fmt(thresholds.maxP95WallMs)}.` })\n  }\n}\n\nfunction buildAxes(\n  metrics: ReleaseConfidenceMetrics,\n  thresholds: Required<ReleaseConfidenceThresholds>,\n  gateDecision: GateDecision | null,\n  issues: ReleaseConfidenceIssue[],\n): ReleaseConfidenceAxis[] {\n  return [\n    axis('corpus', issues, bounded(metrics.scenarioCount / Math.max(1, thresholds.minScenarioCount)), `${metrics.scenarioCount} scenarios; holdout=${metrics.splitCounts.holdout}`),\n    axis('quality', issues, Math.min(metrics.passRate, metrics.meanScore), `passRate=${fmt(metrics.passRate)} meanScore=${fmt(metrics.meanScore)}`),\n    axis('generalization', issues, gateDecision && !gateDecision.promote ? 0 : gapScore(metrics.overfitGap, thresholds.maxOverfitGap), `holdoutRuns=${metrics.holdoutRuns} overfitGap=${fmt(metrics.overfitGap)}`),\n    axis('diagnostics', issues, metrics.failedRows === 0 ? 1 : metrics.failuresWithAsi / metrics.failedRows, `failuresWithAsi=${metrics.failuresWithAsi}/${metrics.failedRows}`),\n    axis('efficiency', issues, efficiencyScore(metrics, thresholds), `meanCostUsd=${fmt(metrics.meanCostUsd)} p95WallMs=${fmt(metrics.p95WallMs)}`),\n  ]\n}\n\nfunction axis(\n  name: ReleaseConfidenceAxisName,\n  issues: ReleaseConfidenceIssue[],\n  score: number,\n  detail: string,\n): ReleaseConfidenceAxis {\n  const own = issues.filter((i) => i.axis === name)\n  const status = own.some((i) => i.severity === 'critical') ? 'fail'\n    : own.length > 0 ? 'warn'\n    : 'pass'\n  return { name, status, score: bounded(score), detail }\n}\n\nfunction countScenarioSplits(scenarios: readonly DatasetScenario[]): Record<DatasetSplit, number> {\n  const counts: Record<DatasetSplit, number> = { train: 0, dev: 0, test: 0, holdout: 0 }\n  for (const scenario of scenarios) counts[scenario.split ?? 'train']++\n  return counts\n}\n\nfunction countDomains(scenarios: readonly DatasetScenario[]): Record<string, number> {\n  const out: Record<string, number> = {}\n  for (const scenario of scenarios) {\n    const domain = scenario.tags?.domain ?? scenario.tags?.category ?? 'uncategorized'\n    out[domain] = (out[domain] ?? 0) + 1\n  }\n  return out\n}\n\nfunction countFailureModes(\n  runs: readonly RunRecord[],\n  traces: readonly ReleaseTraceEvidence[],\n  threshold: number,\n): Record<string, number> {\n  const out: Record<string, number> = {}\n  for (const run of runs) {\n    const score = run.outcome.holdoutScore ?? run.outcome.searchScore\n    if (run.failureMode || (score !== undefined && score < threshold)) {\n      const mode = run.failureMode ?? 'low_score'\n      out[mode] = (out[mode] ?? 0) + 1\n    }\n  }\n  for (const trace of traces) {\n    if (trace.failureMode || trace.ok === false || (trace.score !== undefined && trace.score < threshold)) {\n      const mode = trace.failureMode ?? (trace.ok === false ? 'not_ok' : 'low_score')\n      out[mode] = (out[mode] ?? 0) + 1\n    }\n  }\n  return out\n}\n\nfunction countResponsibleSurfaces(traces: readonly ReleaseTraceEvidence[]): Record<string, number> {\n  const out: Record<string, number> = {}\n  for (const trace of traces) {\n    for (const asi of trace.asi ?? []) {\n      const surface = asi.responsibleSurface ?? 'unknown'\n      out[surface] = (out[surface] ?? 0) + 1\n    }\n  }\n  return out\n}\n\nfunction failedRows(\n  runs: readonly RunRecord[],\n  traces: readonly ReleaseTraceEvidence[],\n  threshold: number,\n): Array<{ hasAsi: boolean }> {\n  const out: Array<{ hasAsi: boolean }> = []\n  for (const run of runs) {\n    const score = run.outcome.holdoutScore ?? run.outcome.searchScore\n    if (run.failureMode || (score !== undefined && score < threshold)) {\n      const asiMetric = run.outcome.raw.asi\n      out.push({ hasAsi: typeof asiMetric === 'number' && asiMetric > 0 })\n    }\n  }\n  for (const trace of traces) {\n    if (trace.failureMode || trace.ok === false || (trace.score !== undefined && trace.score < threshold)) {\n      out.push({ hasAsi: (trace.asi?.length ?? 0) > 0 })\n    }\n  }\n  return out\n}\n\nfunction passRate(\n  runs: readonly RunRecord[],\n  traces: readonly ReleaseTraceEvidence[],\n  threshold: number,\n): number {\n  const outcomes = [\n    ...runs.map((run) => {\n      const score = run.outcome.holdoutScore ?? run.outcome.searchScore\n      return !run.failureMode && score !== undefined && score >= threshold\n    }),\n    ...traces.map((trace) => trace.ok !== false && (trace.score === undefined || trace.score >= threshold)),\n  ]\n  if (outcomes.length === 0) return 0\n  return outcomes.filter(Boolean).length / outcomes.length\n}\n\nfunction scoresFor(runs: readonly RunRecord[], split: RunSplitTag): number[] {\n  return runs\n    .filter((run) => run.splitTag === split)\n    .map((run) => split === 'holdout' ? run.outcome.holdoutScore : run.outcome.searchScore)\n    .filter(isFiniteNumber)\n}\n\nfunction mean(xs: readonly number[]): number {\n  if (xs.length === 0) return Number.NaN\n  return xs.reduce((sum, x) => sum + x, 0) / xs.length\n}\n\nfunction percentile(xs: readonly number[], p: number): number {\n  if (xs.length === 0) return Number.NaN\n  const sorted = [...xs].sort((a, b) => a - b)\n  return sorted[Math.min(sorted.length - 1, Math.max(0, Math.ceil(p * sorted.length) - 1))]!\n}\n\nfunction isFiniteNumber(value: unknown): value is number {\n  return typeof value === 'number' && Number.isFinite(value)\n}\n\nfunction safeDiff(a: number, b: number): number {\n  if (!Number.isFinite(a) || !Number.isFinite(b)) return Number.NaN\n  return a - b\n}\n\nfunction gapScore(gap: number, maxGap: number): number {\n  if (!Number.isFinite(gap)) return 0\n  if (maxGap <= 0) return gap <= 0 ? 1 : 0\n  return bounded(1 - Math.max(0, gap) / maxGap)\n}\n\nfunction efficiencyScore(\n  metrics: ReleaseConfidenceMetrics,\n  thresholds: Required<ReleaseConfidenceThresholds>,\n): number {\n  const cost = Number.isFinite(thresholds.maxMeanCostUsd) && Number.isFinite(metrics.meanCostUsd)\n    ? bounded(thresholds.maxMeanCostUsd / Math.max(metrics.meanCostUsd, 1e-12))\n    : 1\n  const latency = Number.isFinite(thresholds.maxP95WallMs) && Number.isFinite(metrics.p95WallMs)\n    ? bounded(thresholds.maxP95WallMs / Math.max(metrics.p95WallMs, 1e-12))\n    : 1\n  return Math.min(cost, latency)\n}\n\nfunction bounded(x: number): number {\n  if (!Number.isFinite(x)) return 0\n  return Math.max(0, Math.min(1, x))\n}\n\nfunction renderSummary(\n  target: string,\n  status: ReleaseConfidenceStatus,\n  metrics: ReleaseConfidenceMetrics,\n  issues: ReleaseConfidenceIssue[],\n): string {\n  const prefix = `release confidence ${status}: ${target}`\n  const metricText = `scenarios=${metrics.scenarioCount} searchRuns=${metrics.searchRuns} holdoutRuns=${metrics.holdoutRuns} passRate=${fmt(metrics.passRate)} meanScore=${fmt(metrics.meanScore)}`\n  if (issues.length === 0) return `${prefix}; ${metricText}`\n  return `${prefix}; ${metricText}; issues=${issues.map((i) => i.code).join(',')}`\n}\n\nfunction fmt(x: number): string {\n  if (!Number.isFinite(x)) return String(x)\n  return x.toFixed(4)\n}\n","/**\n * Rubric predictive validity — does our eval rubric predict deployment\n * outcomes?\n *\n * `correlationStudy` (already in this package) joins a `TraceStore` to an\n * `OutcomeStore` and computes Pearson + Spearman + bootstrap CI for each\n * (eval-metric, outcome-metric) pair. That answers \"does X correlate with\n * Y at all.\" `rubricPredictiveValidity` is the campaign-shaped wrapper\n * around it: take a sequence of `RunRecord`s (the canonical campaign\n * artifact) and a `DeploymentOutcomeStore`, join on `runId`, return a\n * ranked verdict on every rubric whose dimension scores were captured in\n * `outcome.raw`.\n *\n * The point — quoting the methodology doc — is that **without this loop\n * every rubric is faith-based**. Once it's wired, you know which rubrics\n * have earned their promotion power and which ones are decoration.\n *\n *   const validity = await rubricPredictiveValidity({\n *     runs: lastQuarter,\n *     outcomes: shipFlagOutcomeStore,\n *     outcomeMetrics: ['revenue_lift', 'retention_30d', 'csat'],\n *     rubrics: ['anti_slop', 'semantic_concept', 'tool_recovery'],\n *   })\n *   for (const r of validity.ranked) {\n *     console.log(`${r.rubric} → ${r.bestOutcome}: ρ=${r.spearman.toFixed(2)}`)\n *   }\n *\n * The function is intentionally read-only. Use the verdict to deprecate\n * decorative rubrics, re-weight composite scores, or trigger a\n * recalibration sweep when predictive validity drops below a threshold.\n */\n\nimport type { RunRecord } from '../run-record'\nimport type { DeploymentOutcome, OutcomeStore } from './outcome-store'\n\nexport interface RubricPredictiveValidityInput {\n  /**\n   * Canonical campaign output. Each record's `outcome.raw[<rubricId>]`\n   * provides the eval score; missing keys are silently skipped per pair.\n   */\n  runs: RunRecord[]\n  outcomes: OutcomeStore\n  /**\n   * Outcome metric names to evaluate against. Each must appear in at\n   * least one `DeploymentOutcome.metrics` keyspace; pairs with too few\n   * joined samples are excluded from the result.\n   */\n  outcomeMetrics: string[]\n  /**\n   * Rubric ids to evaluate. Must appear as keys in `RunRecord.outcome.raw`.\n   * If omitted, every numeric key in `outcome.raw` across the run set is\n   * treated as a rubric.\n   */\n  rubrics?: string[]\n  /** Minimum joined-sample count before a pair is reported. Default 8. */\n  minSamples?: number\n  /** Bootstrap resamples for CI. Default 500. */\n  bootstrapResamples?: number\n  /** Random seed for the bootstrap (mulberry32). Default unset (Math.random). */\n  seed?: number\n  /**\n   * Reduction when multiple outcomes attach to one runId. Default `'latest'`\n   * (most recently captured).\n   */\n  reduction?: 'latest' | 'mean' | 'max'\n}\n\nexport interface RubricOutcomePair {\n  rubric: string\n  outcome: string\n  n: number\n  pearson: number\n  spearman: number\n  ci95: { low: number; high: number }\n  /**\n   * Verdict bucket. `load_bearing` ≥ 0.7, `informative` ≥ 0.4,\n   * `decorative` < 0.4 in absolute correlation. A negative correlation\n   * with a desired outcome is also `decorative` — actively misleading\n   * is worse than uninformative.\n   */\n  verdict: 'load_bearing' | 'informative' | 'decorative'\n}\n\nexport interface RubricRanking {\n  rubric: string\n  /** Outcome metric this rubric correlated best with. */\n  bestOutcome: string\n  spearman: number\n  pearson: number\n  n: number\n  verdict: RubricOutcomePair['verdict']\n}\n\nexport interface RubricPredictiveValidityReport {\n  pairs: RubricOutcomePair[]\n  /** Per-rubric best pair, sorted descending by |spearman|. */\n  ranked: RubricRanking[]\n  joinedSamples: number\n  skippedRuns: number\n  /** Rubrics that were declared but never produced a usable score. */\n  rubricsWithoutData: string[]\n}\n\nexport async function rubricPredictiveValidity(\n  input: RubricPredictiveValidityInput,\n): Promise<RubricPredictiveValidityReport> {\n  const minSamples = input.minSamples ?? 8\n  const reduction = input.reduction ?? 'latest'\n  const resamples = input.bootstrapResamples ?? 500\n  const rng = makeRng(input.seed)\n\n  const outcomes = await input.outcomes.list()\n  const outcomesByRun = new Map<string, DeploymentOutcome[]>()\n  for (const o of outcomes) {\n    const arr = outcomesByRun.get(o.runId) ?? []\n    arr.push(o)\n    outcomesByRun.set(o.runId, arr)\n  }\n\n  // Discover rubrics: caller-declared OR every numeric key in outcome.raw\n  // observed across runs.\n  const observedRubrics = new Set<string>()\n  for (const r of input.runs) {\n    for (const k of Object.keys(r.outcome.raw)) observedRubrics.add(k)\n  }\n  const rubrics = input.rubrics ?? [...observedRubrics]\n\n  // Collect aligned (x, y) pairs per (rubric, outcome).\n  type Bucket = { rubric: string; outcome: string; xs: number[]; ys: number[] }\n  const buckets: Bucket[] = []\n  for (const r of rubrics) {\n    for (const o of input.outcomeMetrics) {\n      buckets.push({ rubric: r, outcome: o, xs: [], ys: [] })\n    }\n  }\n\n  let joined = 0\n  let skipped = 0\n  for (const run of input.runs) {\n    const os = outcomesByRun.get(run.runId)\n    if (!os || os.length === 0) { skipped++; continue }\n    let joinedThisRun = false\n    for (const r of rubrics) {\n      const x = run.outcome.raw[r]\n      if (typeof x !== 'number' || !Number.isFinite(x)) continue\n      for (const o of input.outcomeMetrics) {\n        const values = os\n          .map((row) => row.metrics[o])\n          .filter((v): v is number => typeof v === 'number' && Number.isFinite(v))\n        if (values.length === 0) continue\n        const y = reduce(values, os, o, reduction)\n        if (y === null) continue\n        const bucket = buckets.find((b) => b.rubric === r && b.outcome === o)!\n        bucket.xs.push(x)\n        bucket.ys.push(y)\n        joinedThisRun = true\n      }\n    }\n    if (joinedThisRun) joined++\n  }\n\n  const pairs: RubricOutcomePair[] = []\n  for (const b of buckets) {\n    if (b.xs.length < minSamples) continue\n    const pearson = pearsonR(b.xs, b.ys)\n    const spearman = pearsonR(rankWithTies(b.xs), rankWithTies(b.ys))\n    const ci = bootstrapCi(b.xs, b.ys, resamples, rng)\n    const verdict: RubricOutcomePair['verdict'] =\n      Math.abs(spearman) >= 0.7 ? 'load_bearing'\n      : Math.abs(spearman) >= 0.4 ? 'informative'\n      : 'decorative'\n    pairs.push({\n      rubric: b.rubric, outcome: b.outcome, n: b.xs.length,\n      pearson, spearman, ci95: ci, verdict,\n    })\n  }\n\n  const byRubric = new Map<string, RubricOutcomePair[]>()\n  for (const p of pairs) {\n    const arr = byRubric.get(p.rubric) ?? []\n    arr.push(p)\n    byRubric.set(p.rubric, arr)\n  }\n  const ranked: RubricRanking[] = [...byRubric.entries()]\n    .map(([rubric, ps]) => {\n      const best = ps.reduce((a, b) => (Math.abs(b.spearman) > Math.abs(a.spearman) ? b : a))\n      return {\n        rubric,\n        bestOutcome: best.outcome,\n        spearman: best.spearman,\n        pearson: best.pearson,\n        n: best.n,\n        verdict: best.verdict,\n      }\n    })\n    .sort((a, b) => Math.abs(b.spearman) - Math.abs(a.spearman))\n\n  const rubricsWithoutData = rubrics.filter((r) => !byRubric.has(r))\n\n  return { pairs, ranked, joinedSamples: joined, skippedRuns: skipped, rubricsWithoutData }\n}\n\n// ── Helpers ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────\n\nfunction reduce(\n  values: number[],\n  outcomes: DeploymentOutcome[],\n  metric: string,\n  kind: 'latest' | 'mean' | 'max',\n): number | null {\n  if (values.length === 0) return null\n  if (kind === 'mean') return values.reduce((s, v) => s + v, 0) / values.length\n  if (kind === 'max') return Math.max(...values)\n  // 'latest'\n  const sorted = [...outcomes]\n    .filter((o) => typeof o.metrics[metric] === 'number')\n    .sort((a, b) => b.capturedAt - a.capturedAt)\n  return sorted[0]?.metrics[metric] ?? null\n}\n\nfunction pearsonR(a: number[], b: number[]): number {\n  if (a.length !== b.length || a.length < 2) return Number.NaN\n  const ma = a.reduce((s, v) => s + v, 0) / a.length\n  const mb = b.reduce((s, v) => s + v, 0) / b.length\n  let num = 0, da = 0, db = 0\n  for (let i = 0; i < a.length; i++) {\n    const xa = a[i]! - ma\n    const xb = b[i]! - mb\n    num += xa * xb; da += xa * xa; db += xb * xb\n  }\n  if (da === 0 || db === 0) return da === 0 && db === 0 ? 1 : 0\n  return num / Math.sqrt(da * db)\n}\n\nfunction rankWithTies(xs: number[]): number[] {\n  const indexed = xs.map((v, i) => ({ v, i })).sort((a, b) => a.v - b.v)\n  const r = new Array<number>(xs.length)\n  for (let i = 0; i < indexed.length; ) {\n    let j = i\n    while (j + 1 < indexed.length && indexed[j + 1]!.v === indexed[i]!.v) j++\n    const avg = (i + j + 2) / 2\n    for (let k = i; k <= j; k++) r[indexed[k]!.i] = avg\n    i = j + 1\n  }\n  return r\n}\n\nfunction bootstrapCi(\n  xs: number[],\n  ys: number[],\n  iterations: number,\n  rng: () => number,\n): { low: number; high: number } {\n  const n = xs.length\n  if (n < 3) return { low: Number.NaN, high: Number.NaN }\n  const samples: number[] = []\n  for (let b = 0; b < iterations; b++) {\n    const rx = new Array<number>(n)\n    const ry = new Array<number>(n)\n    for (let i = 0; i < n; i++) {\n      const idx = Math.floor(rng() * n)\n      rx[i] = xs[idx]!\n      ry[i] = ys[idx]!\n    }\n    const r = pearsonR(rx, ry)\n    if (Number.isFinite(r)) samples.push(r)\n  }\n  samples.sort((a, b) => a - b)\n  if (samples.length === 0) return { low: Number.NaN, high: Number.NaN }\n  return {\n    low: samples[Math.floor(0.025 * samples.length)]!,\n    high: samples[Math.min(samples.length - 1, Math.floor(0.975 * samples.length))]!,\n  }\n}\n\nfunction makeRng(seed?: number): () => number {\n  if (seed === undefined) return Math.random\n  let s = seed >>> 0\n  return () => {\n    s = (s + 0x6D2B79F5) >>> 0\n    let t = s\n    t = Math.imul(t ^ (t >>> 15), t | 1)\n    t ^= t + Math.imul(t ^ (t >>> 7), t | 61)\n    return ((t ^ (t >>> 14)) >>> 0) / 4294967296\n  }\n}\n","/**\n * Always-valid sequential evaluation.\n *\n * `researchReport` (0.21+) assumes a single pre-specified analysis. Real\n * consumers run campaigns weekly / nightly / per-PR; each new run silently\n * inflates the false-discovery rate, because the BH-FDR guarantee was for\n * the *first* look, not the 47th. Without time-uniform inference,\n * launch-decision teams either (a) don't peek, which forfeits the cost\n * advantage of stop-when-decisive, or (b) peek and pretend they didn't,\n * which forfeits scientific validity.\n *\n * This module ships **e-value-based confidence sequences** for paired\n * bounded outcomes. The methodology is the predictable plug-in betting\n * martingale of Waudby-Smith & Ramdas (2024) — provably valid at *any*\n * stopping time. Concretely:\n *\n *   For paired deltas D_1, D_2, … ∈ [-c, c] with the null H_0: E[D] ≤ 0,\n *   a betting fraction λ_i is chosen using only D_{1..i-1} (predictable\n *   plug-in), and the running e-value is\n *\n *     E_t = ∏_{i=1}^{t} (1 + λ_i · D_i)\n *\n *   E_t is a non-negative martingale under H_0 with E[E_t] ≤ 1, so by\n *   Ville's inequality, P(∃ t : E_t ≥ 1/α) ≤ α — we can reject the null\n *   at any time without inflating the type-I error.\n *\n * Combined with `runEvalCampaign`, every consumer running rolling\n * campaigns gains the ability to ship the moment evidence is decisive,\n * stop-early on dead-on-arrival variants, and accumulate evidence across\n * partial runs without spending the FDR budget. No new sweep is wasted.\n *\n * References:\n *   - Howard, S. R., Ramdas, A., McAuliffe, J., Sekhon, J. (2021).\n *     Time-uniform, nonparametric, nonasymptotic confidence sequences.\n *     Annals of Statistics, 49(2), 1055–1080.\n *   - Waudby-Smith, I., Ramdas, A. (2024). Estimating means of bounded\n *     random variables by betting. JRSS B, 86(1), 1–27.\n */\n\nexport type SequentialDecision = 'promote_now' | 'continue' | 'reject_now' | 'equivalent'\n\nexport interface PairedEvalueOptions {\n  /**\n   * Bound on |delta|. Default 1 (matching most score scales). Must satisfy\n   * c > 0; deltas outside [-c, c] are clipped with a warning attached to\n   * the return value.\n   */\n  bound?: number\n  /** Target Type-I error. Default 0.05. */\n  alpha?: number\n  /**\n   * Region of Practical Equivalence on the *mean* paired delta. When\n   * supplied, the verdict can return `'equivalent'` once the running\n   * confidence sequence on the mean is fully contained in [low, high].\n   */\n  rope?: { low: number; high: number }\n  /** Initial bet shrinkage (0 < scale ≤ 1). Default 0.5 — empirically robust. */\n  initialBetShrinkage?: number\n}\n\nexport interface PairedEvalueStep {\n  /** 1-indexed observation count. */\n  t: number\n  delta: number\n  /** Running e-value E_t = ∏ (1 + λ_i · D_i). */\n  evalue: number\n  /** Time-uniform p-value at stopping time t. */\n  pValue: number\n  /** Lower bound of the empirical Bernstein confidence sequence at level 1-α. */\n  csLow: number\n  csHigh: number\n  /** Verdict at this stopping time. */\n  decision: SequentialDecision\n}\n\nexport interface PairedEvalueSequence {\n  steps: PairedEvalueStep[]\n  /** The decision at the final step. */\n  finalDecision: SequentialDecision\n  /** Index (1-based) at which a non-`continue` decision first fired, or null. */\n  decisionFiredAt: number | null\n  /** True if any deltas were clipped to [-bound, bound]. */\n  clipped: boolean\n}\n\n/**\n * Run the paired e-value sequence over an in-order delta stream.\n *\n * Use for *streaming* / interim analyses: pass the deltas you have so\n * far, get the verdict at every prefix length. The decision is\n * monotone-stable in the sense that once `'reject_now'` or `'promote_now'`\n * fires, the verdict at later steps remains decisive (the e-value is a\n * non-negative martingale; once it crosses the threshold, it's crossed).\n */\nexport function pairedEvalueSequence(\n  deltas: number[],\n  opts: PairedEvalueOptions = {},\n): PairedEvalueSequence {\n  const c = opts.bound ?? 1\n  const alpha = opts.alpha ?? 0.05\n  const initialShrink = opts.initialBetShrinkage ?? 0.5\n  const rope = opts.rope ?? null\n  if (c <= 0) throw new Error('pairedEvalueSequence: bound must be > 0')\n  if (alpha <= 0 || alpha >= 1) throw new Error('pairedEvalueSequence: alpha must be in (0,1)')\n  if (rope && !(Number.isFinite(rope.low) && Number.isFinite(rope.high) && rope.low <= rope.high)) {\n    throw new Error('pairedEvalueSequence: rope must satisfy low ≤ high')\n  }\n\n  const steps: PairedEvalueStep[] = []\n  let clipped = false\n  let evalue = 1\n  let decisionFiredAt: number | null = null\n\n  // Running statistics (using only D_{1..i-1} for the bet → predictable plug-in).\n  let sum = 0\n  let sumSq = 0\n  let count = 0\n\n  for (let i = 0; i < deltas.length; i++) {\n    let d = deltas[i]!\n    if (d < -c || d > c) {\n      d = Math.max(-c, Math.min(c, d))\n      clipped = true\n    }\n\n    // Predictable plug-in bet (positive λ tests for E[D] > 0; we run a two-sided\n    // test by tracking the symmetric e-value via |bet|).\n    // λ_i ∝ mean / (variance + bound^2). Shrink early to avoid overbetting.\n    const muHat = count === 0 ? 0 : sum / count\n    const varHat = count === 0 ? c * c : Math.max(1e-12, sumSq / count - muHat * muHat)\n    const t = i + 1\n    const shrink = initialShrink * Math.min(1, count / 32) // anneal toward 1\n    let lambda = (muHat / (varHat + c * c)) * shrink\n    // Clip to ensure 1 + λ·D > 0 for all |D| ≤ c (so the e-value stays non-negative).\n    const lambdaMax = 0.99 / c\n    if (lambda > lambdaMax) lambda = lambdaMax\n    if (lambda < -lambdaMax) lambda = -lambdaMax\n\n    evalue = evalue * (1 + lambda * d)\n    if (!Number.isFinite(evalue) || evalue < 0) evalue = 0\n\n    sum += d\n    sumSq += d * d\n    count += 1\n\n    const pValue = Math.min(1, 1 / Math.max(evalue, 1e-300))\n\n    // Empirical Bernstein confidence sequence on the mean. Howard et al.\n    // (2021), Theorem 4.4 with σ̂² the running sample variance and a\n    // calibration constant tuned for two-sided coverage at level 1 - α.\n    const cs = empiricalBernsteinCs(sum, sumSq, count, c, alpha)\n\n    let decision: SequentialDecision = 'continue'\n    if (rope && cs.low >= rope.low && cs.high <= rope.high) decision = 'equivalent'\n    else if (evalue >= 2 / alpha && muHat > 0) decision = 'promote_now'\n    else if (evalue >= 2 / alpha && muHat < 0) decision = 'reject_now'\n    else if (rope && cs.high < rope.low) decision = 'reject_now'\n\n    if (decision !== 'continue' && decisionFiredAt === null) decisionFiredAt = t\n\n    steps.push({ t, delta: d, evalue, pValue, csLow: cs.low, csHigh: cs.high, decision })\n  }\n\n  const finalDecision = steps.length === 0 ? 'continue' : steps[steps.length - 1]!.decision\n  return { steps, finalDecision, decisionFiredAt, clipped }\n}\n\nexport interface InterimReleaseConfidenceInput {\n  /**\n   * One delta series per candidate (paired deltas vs comparator). Order\n   * within a series is the order the campaigns were run.\n   */\n  deltaSeries: Array<{ candidateId: string; deltas: number[] }>\n  alpha?: number\n  bound?: number\n  rope?: { low: number; high: number }\n}\n\nexport interface InterimReleaseConfidence {\n  candidates: Array<{\n    candidateId: string\n    decision: SequentialDecision\n    decisionFiredAt: number | null\n    finalEvalue: number\n    finalPValue: number\n    pairs: number\n    csLow: number\n    csHigh: number\n  }>\n  /**\n   * Campaign-level recommendation: pick the strongest 'promote_now', else\n   * 'continue' if any candidate is still live, else 'reject_now' if every\n   * candidate is dead, else 'equivalent'.\n   */\n  recommendation: { decision: SequentialDecision; candidateId: string | null }\n}\n\n/**\n * Run interim sequential analyses across many candidates at once,\n * preserving the time-uniform α guarantee for each candidate's series and\n * synthesising a campaign-level recommendation. Designed to be called on\n * every campaign tick — the recommendation is anytime-valid.\n */\nexport function evaluateInterimReleaseConfidence(\n  input: InterimReleaseConfidenceInput,\n): InterimReleaseConfidence {\n  const candidates = input.deltaSeries.map((s) => {\n    const seq = pairedEvalueSequence(s.deltas, {\n      alpha: input.alpha,\n      bound: input.bound,\n      rope: input.rope,\n    })\n    const last = seq.steps[seq.steps.length - 1]\n    return {\n      candidateId: s.candidateId,\n      decision: seq.finalDecision,\n      decisionFiredAt: seq.decisionFiredAt,\n      finalEvalue: last?.evalue ?? 1,\n      finalPValue: last?.pValue ?? 1,\n      pairs: seq.steps.length,\n      csLow: last?.csLow ?? Number.NEGATIVE_INFINITY,\n      csHigh: last?.csHigh ?? Number.POSITIVE_INFINITY,\n    }\n  })\n\n  const promote = candidates.find((c) => c.decision === 'promote_now')\n  if (promote) return { candidates, recommendation: { decision: 'promote_now', candidateId: promote.candidateId } }\n  const live = candidates.find((c) => c.decision === 'continue')\n  if (live) return { candidates, recommendation: { decision: 'continue', candidateId: null } }\n  const equiv = candidates.find((c) => c.decision === 'equivalent')\n  if (equiv) return { candidates, recommendation: { decision: 'equivalent', candidateId: equiv.candidateId } }\n  return { candidates, recommendation: { decision: 'reject_now', candidateId: null } }\n}\n\n// ── Internals ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────\n\n/**\n * Empirical Bernstein confidence sequence on the mean of bounded variables.\n * Adapted from Howard et al. (2021) §4.4. Provides a time-uniform CI on\n * the running mean; valid at every stopping time.\n */\nfunction empiricalBernsteinCs(\n  sum: number,\n  sumSq: number,\n  n: number,\n  bound: number,\n  alpha: number,\n): { low: number; high: number } {\n  if (n === 0) return { low: -bound, high: bound }\n  const mean = sum / n\n  const variance = Math.max(0, sumSq / n - mean * mean)\n  // Iterated-log calibration constant. The 1.7 exponent matches the\n  // recommended choice in Howard et al. for two-sided coverage at level\n  // 1 - α with mild log-corrections; tightening further requires a\n  // tuned mixture and is out of scope.\n  const psi = Math.log(2 / alpha) + 1.7 * Math.log(Math.log(Math.max(Math.E, n)) + 1)\n  const radius = Math.sqrt((2 * variance * psi) / n) + (3 * bound * psi) / n\n  return { low: mean - radius, high: mean + radius }\n}\n","import type { ReleaseConfidenceScorecard } from './release-confidence'\nimport { summaryTable } from './summary-report'\nimport type { RunRecord } from './run-record'\n\nexport interface RenderReleaseReportOptions {\n  title?: string\n  runs?: readonly RunRecord[]\n  comparator?: string\n  traceAnalystFindings?: readonly string[]\n  nextActions?: readonly string[]\n}\n\nexport function renderReleaseReport(\n  scorecard: ReleaseConfidenceScorecard,\n  options: RenderReleaseReportOptions = {},\n): string {\n  const title = options.title ?? `Release Report: ${scorecard.target}`\n  const lines: string[] = []\n  lines.push(`# ${title}`)\n  lines.push('')\n  lines.push(`Status: **${scorecard.status.toUpperCase()}**`)\n  lines.push(`Promote: **${scorecard.promote ? 'yes' : 'no'}**`)\n  if (scorecard.candidateId) lines.push(`Candidate: \\`${scorecard.candidateId}\\``)\n  if (scorecard.baselineId) lines.push(`Baseline: \\`${scorecard.baselineId}\\``)\n  lines.push('')\n  lines.push(scorecard.summary)\n  lines.push('')\n\n  lines.push('## Metrics')\n  lines.push('')\n  lines.push('| Metric | Value |')\n  lines.push('|---|---:|')\n  lines.push(`| Scenarios | ${scorecard.metrics.scenarioCount} |`)\n  lines.push(`| Search runs | ${scorecard.metrics.searchRuns} |`)\n  lines.push(`| Holdout runs | ${scorecard.metrics.holdoutRuns} |`)\n  lines.push(`| Pass rate | ${pct(scorecard.metrics.passRate)} |`)\n  lines.push(`| Mean score | ${num(scorecard.metrics.meanScore)} |`)\n  lines.push(`| Search mean | ${num(scorecard.metrics.searchMeanScore)} |`)\n  lines.push(`| Holdout mean | ${num(scorecard.metrics.holdoutMeanScore)} |`)\n  lines.push(`| Overfit gap | ${num(scorecard.metrics.overfitGap)} |`)\n  lines.push(`| Mean cost | $${num(scorecard.metrics.meanCostUsd)} |`)\n  lines.push(`| p95 wall time | ${Math.round(scorecard.metrics.p95WallMs)} ms |`)\n  lines.push('')\n\n  if (scorecard.issues.length > 0) {\n    lines.push('## Issues')\n    lines.push('')\n    for (const issue of scorecard.issues) {\n      lines.push(`- **${issue.severity}** \\`${issue.code}\\` (${issue.axis}): ${issue.detail}`)\n    }\n    lines.push('')\n  }\n\n  const surfaces = entries(scorecard.metrics.responsibleSurfaceCounts)\n  if (surfaces.length > 0) {\n    lines.push('## Responsible Surfaces')\n    lines.push('')\n    for (const [surface, count] of surfaces) lines.push(`- ${surface}: ${count}`)\n    lines.push('')\n  }\n\n  const failures = entries(scorecard.metrics.failureModeCounts)\n  if (failures.length > 0) {\n    lines.push('## Failure Modes')\n    lines.push('')\n    for (const [mode, count] of failures) lines.push(`- ${mode}: ${count}`)\n    lines.push('')\n  }\n\n  if (options.runs && options.runs.length > 0) {\n    lines.push('## Run Summary')\n    lines.push('')\n    lines.push(summaryTable([...options.runs], {\n      comparator: options.comparator ?? scorecard.baselineId ?? undefined,\n      split: 'holdout',\n    }).markdown)\n    lines.push('')\n  }\n\n  if (options.traceAnalystFindings && options.traceAnalystFindings.length > 0) {\n    lines.push('## TraceAnalyst Findings')\n    lines.push('')\n    for (const finding of options.traceAnalystFindings) lines.push(`- ${finding}`)\n    lines.push('')\n  }\n\n  const nextActions = options.nextActions ?? defaultNextActions(scorecard)\n  if (nextActions.length > 0) {\n    lines.push('## Next Actions')\n    lines.push('')\n    for (const action of nextActions) lines.push(`- ${action}`)\n    lines.push('')\n  }\n\n  return lines.join('\\n').trimEnd() + '\\n'\n}\n\nfunction defaultNextActions(scorecard: ReleaseConfidenceScorecard): string[] {\n  if (scorecard.promote) return ['Promote the candidate and keep canaries enabled.']\n  return scorecard.issues\n    .filter((issue) => issue.severity === 'critical')\n    .map((issue) => `Resolve ${issue.code}: ${issue.detail}`)\n}\n\nfunction entries(values: Record<string, number>): Array<[string, number]> {\n  return Object.entries(values)\n    .filter(([, count]) => count > 0)\n    .sort((a, b) => b[1] - a[1] || a[0].localeCompare(b[0]))\n}\n\nfunction pct(value: number): string {\n  return Number.isFinite(value) ? `${(value * 100).toFixed(1)}%` : 'n/a'\n}\n\nfunction num(value: number): string {\n  return Number.isFinite(value) ? value.toFixed(3) : 'n/a'\n}\n","/**\n * Bootstrap-CI promotion gate.\n *\n * In any iterative-improvement loop (GEPA, prompt evolution, dataset\n * curation), the question is \"did this generation actually improve, or are\n * we celebrating noise?\". With small N and noisy outcomes, point-estimate\n * deltas lie. Bootstrap confidence intervals tell the operator whether the\n * delta is real before code or prompts get promoted.\n *\n * This module is pure functions — no I/O, no model calls. Easy to unit-test\n * and to compose into any verdict gate.\n *\n * Default gate:\n *   - Bootstrap mean baseline vs candidate (1k resamples).\n *   - Compute the delta distribution; pass if the lower CI bound > 0.\n *   - Tunable confidence (default 95%) and resample count.\n *\n * Verdict semantics intentionally match the existing `experiments.jsonl`\n * vocabulary:\n *   - ADVANCE: candidate's CI lower bound > baseline mean (real win)\n *   - KEEP:    overlap, but candidate point estimate >= baseline (neutral)\n *   - REVERT:  candidate's CI upper bound < baseline mean (real regression)\n *   - INCONCLUSIVE: not enough samples or CI straddles zero with no signal\n */\n\nexport type Verdict = 'ADVANCE' | 'KEEP' | 'REVERT' | 'INCONCLUSIVE'\n\nexport interface BootstrapResult {\n  baselineMean: number\n  candidateMean: number\n  /** candidateMean - baselineMean, point estimate. */\n  delta: number\n  /** Lower bound of the (1 - alpha) CI on the delta. */\n  ciLower: number\n  /** Upper bound of the (1 - alpha) CI on the delta. */\n  ciUpper: number\n  /** Number of bootstrap resamples used. */\n  iterations: number\n  alpha: number\n  verdict: Verdict\n}\n\nexport interface BootstrapOptions {\n  /** Confidence level alpha (default 0.05 → 95% CI). */\n  alpha?: number\n  /** Number of resamples (default 1000). */\n  iterations?: number\n  /**\n   * Minimum total samples (baseline + candidate) below which we always\n   * return INCONCLUSIVE — bootstrap with too few samples is meaningless.\n   * Default 6 (combined).\n   */\n  minTotalSamples?: number\n  /** RNG seed for reproducibility. Default: Math.random. */\n  seed?: number\n}\n\n/**\n * Compute the bootstrap CI on (candidateMean - baselineMean) and a verdict.\n *\n * Uses simple percentile bootstrap on the difference of resampled means.\n * That's the standard non-parametric primitive — no distributional\n * assumptions, robust to skew, easy to reason about.\n */\nexport function bootstrapCi(\n  baseline: number[],\n  candidate: number[],\n  options: BootstrapOptions = {},\n): BootstrapResult {\n  const alpha = options.alpha ?? 0.05\n  const iterations = options.iterations ?? 1000\n  const minTotal = options.minTotalSamples ?? 6\n  const rng = mulberry32(options.seed ?? hashSeed(baseline, candidate))\n\n  const baselineMean = mean(baseline)\n  const candidateMean = mean(candidate)\n  const delta = candidateMean - baselineMean\n\n  if (baseline.length + candidate.length < minTotal || baseline.length === 0 || candidate.length === 0) {\n    return {\n      baselineMean,\n      candidateMean,\n      delta,\n      ciLower: -Infinity,\n      ciUpper: Infinity,\n      iterations: 0,\n      alpha,\n      verdict: 'INCONCLUSIVE',\n    }\n  }\n\n  const deltas: number[] = new Array(iterations)\n  for (let i = 0; i < iterations; i++) {\n    const bResample = resample(baseline, rng)\n    const cResample = resample(candidate, rng)\n    deltas[i] = mean(cResample) - mean(bResample)\n  }\n  deltas.sort((a, b) => a - b)\n  const lowerIdx = Math.floor((alpha / 2) * iterations)\n  const upperIdx = Math.floor((1 - alpha / 2) * iterations) - 1\n  const ciLower = deltas[Math.max(0, lowerIdx)]!\n  const ciUpper = deltas[Math.min(iterations - 1, upperIdx)]!\n\n  let verdict: Verdict\n  if (ciLower > 0) verdict = 'ADVANCE'\n  else if (ciUpper < 0) verdict = 'REVERT'\n  else if (delta >= 0) verdict = 'KEEP'\n  else verdict = 'INCONCLUSIVE'\n\n  return {\n    baselineMean,\n    candidateMean,\n    delta,\n    ciLower,\n    ciUpper,\n    iterations,\n    alpha,\n    verdict,\n  }\n}\n\nfunction mean(xs: number[]): number {\n  if (xs.length === 0) return 0\n  let s = 0\n  for (const x of xs) s += x\n  return s / xs.length\n}\n\nfunction resample(xs: number[], rng: () => number): number[] {\n  const out = new Array(xs.length)\n  for (let i = 0; i < xs.length; i++) out[i] = xs[Math.floor(rng() * xs.length)]\n  return out\n}\n\n/** Mulberry32 — fast deterministic PRNG. Stable across runs given the same seed. */\nfunction mulberry32(seed: number): () => number {\n  let t = seed >>> 0\n  return () => {\n    t += 0x6d2b79f5\n    let r = t\n    r = Math.imul(r ^ (r >>> 15), r | 1)\n    r ^= r + Math.imul(r ^ (r >>> 7), r | 61)\n    return ((r ^ (r >>> 14)) >>> 0) / 4294967296\n  }\n}\n\n/** Stable seed derived from the inputs — same data → same CI bounds. */\nfunction hashSeed(a: number[], b: number[]): number {\n  let h = 2166136261\n  for (const x of [...a, ...b]) {\n    const view = new Float64Array([x])\n    const bytes = new Uint8Array(view.buffer)\n    for (const byte of bytes) {\n      h ^= byte\n      h = Math.imul(h, 16777619)\n    }\n  }\n  return h >>> 0\n}\n\n/**\n * Judge-replay promotion gate.\n *\n * The cheap inner-loop judge that drives an evolution run is by definition\n * fast and noisy. When you're about to promote a winning variant to the\n * canonical default, you want a STRONGER judge (a more expensive model, a\n * human grader, a separately-trained reward model) to confirm the win\n * generalises beyond the inner loop.\n *\n * This helper takes raw winner + baseline outputs, scores both through the\n * stronger judge, and applies `bootstrapCi`. ADVANCE means the stronger\n * judge agrees the winner is real with the configured confidence. Doesn't\n * matter what shape your \"output\" is — pass a string, an object, anything\n * the judge can read.\n */\nexport interface JudgeReplayGateArgs<TOutput> {\n  baselineOutputs: TOutput[]\n  candidateOutputs: TOutput[]\n  /** Stronger judge — async to allow LLM calls. Return a 0..N scalar score. */\n  judge: (output: TOutput) => Promise<number> | number\n  alpha?: number\n  iterations?: number\n  /** RNG seed for reproducibility. */\n  seed?: number\n  /** Maximum concurrent judge calls. Default 4. */\n  judgeConcurrency?: number\n}\n\nexport async function judgeReplayGate<TOutput>(\n  args: JudgeReplayGateArgs<TOutput>,\n): Promise<BootstrapResult & { baselineSamples: number; candidateSamples: number }> {\n  const concurrency = args.judgeConcurrency ?? 4\n  const baselineScores = await scoreAll(args.baselineOutputs, args.judge, concurrency)\n  const candidateScores = await scoreAll(args.candidateOutputs, args.judge, concurrency)\n  const ci = bootstrapCi(baselineScores, candidateScores, {\n    ...(args.alpha !== undefined ? { alpha: args.alpha } : {}),\n    ...(args.iterations !== undefined ? { iterations: args.iterations } : {}),\n    ...(args.seed !== undefined ? { seed: args.seed } : {}),\n  })\n  return {\n    ...ci,\n    baselineSamples: baselineScores.length,\n    candidateSamples: candidateScores.length,\n  }\n}\n\nasync function scoreAll<TOutput>(\n  outputs: TOutput[],\n  judge: (output: TOutput) => Promise<number> | number,\n  concurrency: number,\n): Promise<number[]> {\n  const results: number[] = new Array(outputs.length)\n  let next = 0\n  async function worker(): Promise<void> {\n    while (true) {\n      const i = next++\n      if (i >= outputs.length) return\n      const v = await judge(outputs[i]!)\n      results[i] = Number.isFinite(v) ? v : 0\n    }\n  }\n  await Promise.all(Array.from({ length: Math.max(1, concurrency) }, () => worker()))\n  return 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package/dist/chunk-USHQBPMH.js.map

@@ -1 +0,0 @@
-{"version":3,"sources":["../src/feedback-trajectory.ts","../src/pareto.ts","../src/held-out-gate.ts","../src/researcher.ts","../src/prompt-evolution.ts","../src/eval-campaign.ts","../src/multi-shot-optimization.ts","../src/reflective-mutation.ts"],"sourcesContent":["import type { DatasetScenario, DatasetSplit } from './dataset'\nimport type { ControlEvalResult, ControlRunResult, ControlStep } from './control-runtime'\n\nexport type FeedbackArtifactType =\n  | 'text'\n  | 'code'\n  | 'plan'\n  | 'research'\n  | 'action'\n  | 'ui'\n  | 'decision'\n  | 'data'\n  | 'other'\n\nexport type FeedbackLabelSource = 'user' | 'judge' | 'environment' | 'metric' | 'policy' | 'system'\n\nexport type FeedbackLabelKind =\n  | 'approve'\n  | 'reject'\n  | 'select'\n  | 'edit'\n  | 'rank'\n  | 'rate'\n  | 'comment'\n  | 'metric_outcome'\n  | 'policy_block'\n  | 'revision_request'\n\nexport type FeedbackSeverity = 'info' | 'warning' | 'error' | 'critical'\n\nexport interface FeedbackTask {\n  intent: string\n  context?: unknown\n}\n\nexport interface ProposedSideEffect {\n  type: string\n  risk?: 'low' | 'medium' | 'high'\n  costUsd?: number\n  externalSideEffect?: boolean\n  requiresApproval?: boolean\n  metadata?: Record<string, unknown>\n}\n\nexport interface FeedbackLabel {\n  id?: string\n  source: FeedbackLabelSource\n  kind: FeedbackLabelKind\n  value: unknown\n  reason?: string\n  severity?: FeedbackSeverity\n  createdAt: string\n  metadata?: Record<string, unknown>\n}\n\nexport interface FeedbackAttempt {\n  id: string\n  stepIndex: number\n  artifactType: FeedbackArtifactType\n  artifact: unknown\n  options?: unknown[]\n  proposedAction?: ProposedSideEffect\n  evals?: ControlEvalResult[]\n  feedback?: FeedbackLabel[]\n  createdAt: string\n  metadata?: Record<string, unknown>\n}\n\nexport interface FeedbackOutcome {\n  success?: boolean\n  score?: number\n  metrics?: Record<string, number>\n  costUsd?: number\n  detail?: string\n  observedAt?: string\n  metadata?: Record<string, unknown>\n}\n\nexport interface FeedbackTrajectory {\n  id: string\n  projectId?: string\n  scenarioId?: string\n  task: FeedbackTask\n  attempts: FeedbackAttempt[]\n  labels: FeedbackLabel[]\n  outcome?: FeedbackOutcome\n  split?: DatasetSplit\n  tags?: Record<string, string>\n  createdAt: string\n  updatedAt?: string\n  metadata?: Record<string, unknown>\n}\n\nexport interface FeedbackTrajectoryStore {\n  save(trajectory: FeedbackTrajectory): Promise<void>\n  get(id: string): Promise<FeedbackTrajectory | null>\n  list(filter?: FeedbackTrajectoryFilter): Promise<FeedbackTrajectory[]>\n  appendAttempt(id: string, attempt: FeedbackAttempt): Promise<FeedbackTrajectory>\n  appendLabel(id: string, label: FeedbackLabel, attemptId?: string): Promise<FeedbackTrajectory>\n}\n\nexport interface FeedbackTrajectoryFilter {\n  projectId?: string\n  scenarioId?: string\n  split?: DatasetSplit\n  tag?: [string, string]\n}\n\nexport interface FeedbackSplitPolicy {\n  trainPct?: number\n  devPct?: number\n  testPct?: number\n  holdoutPct?: number\n}\n\nexport interface PreferenceMemoryEntry {\n  instruction: string\n  rationale: string\n  weight: number\n  sourceTrajectoryId: string\n  sourceLabelId?: string\n  category?: string\n}\n\nexport interface FeedbackOptimizerRow {\n  scenarioId: string\n  trajectoryId: string\n  labelKinds: FeedbackLabelKind[]\n  score?: number\n  metadata?: Record<string, unknown>\n}\n\nexport interface FeedbackReplayResult {\n  trajectoryId: string\n  pass: boolean\n  score?: number\n  labels: FeedbackLabel[]\n  outcome?: FeedbackOutcome\n  metadata?: Record<string, unknown>\n}\n\nexport interface FeedbackReplayAdapter {\n  replay(trajectory: FeedbackTrajectory): Promise<Omit<FeedbackReplayResult, 'trajectoryId'>> | Omit<FeedbackReplayResult, 'trajectoryId'>\n}\n\nconst DEFAULT_SPLIT_POLICY: Required<FeedbackSplitPolicy> = {\n  trainPct: 70,\n  devPct: 15,\n  testPct: 10,\n  holdoutPct: 5,\n}\n\nexport class InMemoryFeedbackTrajectoryStore implements FeedbackTrajectoryStore {\n  private readonly trajectories = new Map<string, FeedbackTrajectory>()\n\n  async save(trajectory: FeedbackTrajectory): Promise<void> {\n    this.trajectories.set(trajectory.id, cloneTrajectory(trajectory))\n  }\n\n  async get(id: string): Promise<FeedbackTrajectory | null> {\n    const trajectory = this.trajectories.get(id)\n    return trajectory ? cloneTrajectory(trajectory) : null\n  }\n\n  async list(filter: FeedbackTrajectoryFilter = {}): Promise<FeedbackTrajectory[]> {\n    return [...this.trajectories.values()]\n      .filter((trajectory) => matchesFilter(trajectory, filter))\n      .map(cloneTrajectory)\n  }\n\n  async appendAttempt(id: string, attempt: FeedbackAttempt): Promise<FeedbackTrajectory> {\n    const trajectory = this.trajectories.get(id)\n    if (!trajectory) throw new Error(`FeedbackTrajectoryStore.appendAttempt: unknown trajectory \"${id}\"`)\n    const next = cloneTrajectory({\n      ...trajectory,\n      attempts: [...trajectory.attempts, attempt],\n      updatedAt: attempt.createdAt,\n    })\n    this.trajectories.set(id, next)\n    return cloneTrajectory(next)\n  }\n\n  async appendLabel(id: string, label: FeedbackLabel, attemptId?: string): Promise<FeedbackTrajectory> {\n    const trajectory = this.trajectories.get(id)\n    if (!trajectory) throw new Error(`FeedbackTrajectoryStore.appendLabel: unknown trajectory \"${id}\"`)\n    const attempts = attemptId\n      ? trajectory.attempts.map((attempt) => attempt.id === attemptId\n        ? { ...attempt, feedback: [...(attempt.feedback ?? []), label] }\n        : attempt)\n      : trajectory.attempts\n    const next = cloneTrajectory({\n      ...trajectory,\n      attempts,\n      labels: attemptId ? trajectory.labels : [...trajectory.labels, label],\n      updatedAt: label.createdAt,\n    })\n    this.trajectories.set(id, next)\n    return cloneTrajectory(next)\n  }\n}\n\nexport class FileSystemFeedbackTrajectoryStore implements FeedbackTrajectoryStore {\n  private readonly dir: string\n  private readonly memory = new InMemoryFeedbackTrajectoryStore()\n  private loaded = false\n\n  constructor(options: { dir: string }) {\n    this.dir = options.dir\n  }\n\n  async save(trajectory: FeedbackTrajectory): Promise<void> {\n    await this.load()\n    await this.memory.save(trajectory)\n    await this.append({ op: 'save', trajectory })\n  }\n\n  async get(id: string): Promise<FeedbackTrajectory | null> {\n    await this.load()\n    return this.memory.get(id)\n  }\n\n  async list(filter: FeedbackTrajectoryFilter = {}): Promise<FeedbackTrajectory[]> {\n    await this.load()\n    return this.memory.list(filter)\n  }\n\n  async appendAttempt(id: string, attempt: FeedbackAttempt): Promise<FeedbackTrajectory> {\n    await this.load()\n    const next = await this.memory.appendAttempt(id, attempt)\n    await this.append({ op: 'appendAttempt', id, attempt })\n    return next\n  }\n\n  async appendLabel(id: string, label: FeedbackLabel, attemptId?: string): Promise<FeedbackTrajectory> {\n    await this.load()\n    const next = await this.memory.appendLabel(id, label, attemptId)\n    await this.append({ op: 'appendLabel', id, label, attemptId })\n    return next\n  }\n\n  private async append(record: unknown): Promise<void> {\n    const { appendFile, mkdir } = await import('node:fs/promises')\n    const { join } = await import('node:path')\n    await mkdir(this.dir, { recursive: true })\n    await appendFile(join(this.dir, 'feedback-trajectories.ndjson'), JSON.stringify(record) + '\\n', 'utf8')\n  }\n\n  private async load(): Promise<void> {\n    if (this.loaded) return\n    const { readFile } = await import('node:fs/promises')\n    const { join } = await import('node:path')\n    const file = join(this.dir, 'feedback-trajectories.ndjson')\n    try {\n      const raw = await readFile(file, 'utf8')\n      for (const line of raw.split('\\n')) {\n        if (!line.trim()) continue\n        try {\n          const record = JSON.parse(line) as\n            | { op: 'save'; trajectory: FeedbackTrajectory }\n            | { op: 'appendAttempt'; id: string; attempt: FeedbackAttempt }\n            | { op: 'appendLabel'; id: string; label: FeedbackLabel; attemptId?: string }\n          if (record.op === 'save') await this.memory.save(record.trajectory)\n          if (record.op === 'appendAttempt') await this.memory.appendAttempt(record.id, record.attempt)\n          if (record.op === 'appendLabel') await this.memory.appendLabel(record.id, record.label, record.attemptId)\n        } catch {\n          /* corrupt records are skipped so one bad line does not discard the corpus */\n        }\n      }\n    } catch {\n      /* first run */\n    }\n    this.loaded = true\n  }\n}\n\nexport function createFeedbackTrajectory(input: {\n  id?: string\n  projectId?: string\n  scenarioId?: string\n  task: FeedbackTask\n  attempts?: FeedbackAttempt[]\n  labels?: FeedbackLabel[]\n  outcome?: FeedbackOutcome\n  split?: DatasetSplit\n  tags?: Record<string, string>\n  createdAt?: string\n  metadata?: Record<string, unknown>\n}): FeedbackTrajectory {\n  const createdAt = input.createdAt ?? new Date().toISOString()\n  const id = input.id ?? `ft_${stableHash(`${input.projectId ?? ''}|${input.scenarioId ?? ''}|${input.task.intent}|${createdAt}`).toString(16)}`\n  return {\n    id,\n    projectId: input.projectId,\n    scenarioId: input.scenarioId,\n    task: input.task,\n    attempts: input.attempts ?? [],\n    labels: input.labels ?? [],\n    outcome: input.outcome,\n    split: input.split,\n    tags: input.tags,\n    createdAt,\n    metadata: input.metadata,\n  }\n}\n\nexport function assignFeedbackSplit(\n  trajectory: Pick<FeedbackTrajectory, 'id' | 'projectId' | 'scenarioId' | 'task'>,\n  policy: FeedbackSplitPolicy = {},\n): DatasetSplit {\n  const split = { ...DEFAULT_SPLIT_POLICY, ...policy }\n  const total = split.trainPct + split.devPct + split.testPct + split.holdoutPct\n  if (total <= 0) throw new Error('assignFeedbackSplit: split percentages must sum above zero')\n  const bucket = stableHash(`${trajectory.projectId ?? ''}|${trajectory.scenarioId ?? ''}|${trajectory.id}|${trajectory.task.intent}`) % total\n  if (bucket < split.trainPct) return 'train'\n  if (bucket < split.trainPct + split.devPct) return 'dev'\n  if (bucket < split.trainPct + split.devPct + split.testPct) return 'test'\n  return 'holdout'\n}\n\nexport function withAssignedFeedbackSplit(\n  trajectory: FeedbackTrajectory,\n  policy?: FeedbackSplitPolicy,\n): FeedbackTrajectory {\n  return {\n    ...trajectory,\n    split: trajectory.split ?? assignFeedbackSplit(trajectory, policy),\n  }\n}\n\nexport function feedbackTrajectoryToDatasetScenario(trajectory: FeedbackTrajectory): DatasetScenario {\n  const withSplit = withAssignedFeedbackSplit(trajectory)\n  return {\n    id: withSplit.scenarioId ?? withSplit.id,\n    split: withSplit.split,\n    payload: withSplit,\n    tags: {\n      ...(withSplit.projectId ? { projectId: withSplit.projectId } : {}),\n      ...(withSplit.tags ?? {}),\n      source: 'feedback-trajectory',\n    },\n  }\n}\n\nexport function feedbackTrajectoriesToDatasetScenarios(\n  trajectories: FeedbackTrajectory[],\n): DatasetScenario[] {\n  return trajectories.map(feedbackTrajectoryToDatasetScenario)\n}\n\nexport function feedbackTrajectoryToOptimizerRow(trajectory: FeedbackTrajectory): FeedbackOptimizerRow {\n  const labels = allLabels(trajectory)\n  return {\n    scenarioId: trajectory.scenarioId ?? trajectory.id,\n    trajectoryId: trajectory.id,\n    labelKinds: [...new Set(labels.map((label) => label.kind))],\n    score: trajectory.outcome?.score ?? scoreFromLabels(labels),\n    metadata: {\n      projectId: trajectory.projectId,\n      split: trajectory.split,\n      intent: trajectory.task.intent,\n      attempts: trajectory.attempts.length,\n      outcome: trajectory.outcome,\n      labels,\n    },\n  }\n}\n\nexport function feedbackTrajectoriesToOptimizerRows(\n  trajectories: FeedbackTrajectory[],\n): FeedbackOptimizerRow[] {\n  return trajectories.map(feedbackTrajectoryToOptimizerRow)\n}\n\nexport async function replayFeedbackTrajectory(\n  trajectory: FeedbackTrajectory,\n  adapter: FeedbackReplayAdapter,\n): Promise<FeedbackReplayResult> {\n  try {\n    const result = await adapter.replay(trajectory)\n    return {\n      trajectoryId: trajectory.id,\n      ...result,\n    }\n  } catch (err) {\n    const createdAt = new Date().toISOString()\n    const message = err instanceof Error ? err.message : String(err)\n    return {\n      trajectoryId: trajectory.id,\n      pass: false,\n      labels: [{\n        source: 'system',\n        kind: 'reject',\n        value: false,\n        reason: message,\n        severity: 'error',\n        createdAt,\n      }],\n      outcome: {\n        success: false,\n        score: 0,\n        detail: message,\n        observedAt: createdAt,\n      },\n      metadata: { replayError: true },\n    }\n  }\n}\n\nexport async function replayFeedbackTrajectories(\n  trajectories: FeedbackTrajectory[],\n  adapter: FeedbackReplayAdapter,\n): Promise<FeedbackReplayResult[]> {\n  const results: FeedbackReplayResult[] = []\n  for (const trajectory of trajectories) {\n    results.push(await replayFeedbackTrajectory(trajectory, adapter))\n  }\n  return results\n}\n\nexport function summarizePreferenceMemory(\n  trajectories: FeedbackTrajectory[],\n  options: { maxEntries?: number } = {},\n): PreferenceMemoryEntry[] {\n  const maxEntries = options.maxEntries ?? 20\n  const entries: PreferenceMemoryEntry[] = []\n  for (const trajectory of trajectories) {\n    for (const label of allLabels(trajectory)) {\n      const instruction = instructionFromLabel(trajectory, label)\n      if (!instruction) continue\n      entries.push({\n        instruction,\n        rationale: label.reason ?? `${label.kind} label from ${label.source}`,\n        weight: weightForLabel(label),\n        sourceTrajectoryId: trajectory.id,\n        sourceLabelId: label.id,\n        category: label.kind,\n      })\n    }\n  }\n\n  const byInstruction = new Map<string, PreferenceMemoryEntry>()\n  for (const entry of entries) {\n    const key = entry.instruction.toLowerCase().replace(/\\s+/g, ' ').trim()\n    const existing = byInstruction.get(key)\n    if (!existing || entry.weight > existing.weight) byInstruction.set(key, entry)\n  }\n  return [...byInstruction.values()]\n    .sort((a, b) => b.weight - a.weight)\n    .slice(0, maxEntries)\n}\n\nexport function renderPreferenceMemoryMarkdown(entries: PreferenceMemoryEntry[]): string {\n  const lines = ['# Preference Memory', '']\n  for (const entry of entries) {\n    lines.push(`- ${entry.instruction}`)\n    lines.push(`  Rationale: ${entry.rationale}`)\n    lines.push(`  Source: ${entry.sourceTrajectoryId}`)\n    lines.push('')\n  }\n  return lines.join('\\n').trim() + '\\n'\n}\n\nexport function serializeFeedbackTrajectoriesJsonl(trajectories: FeedbackTrajectory[]): string {\n  return trajectories\n    .slice()\n    .sort((a, b) => a.id.localeCompare(b.id))\n    .map((trajectory) => JSON.stringify(canonicalize(trajectory)))\n    .join('\\n') + '\\n'\n}\n\nexport function parseFeedbackTrajectoriesJsonl(jsonl: string): FeedbackTrajectory[] {\n  const trajectories: FeedbackTrajectory[] = []\n  for (const line of jsonl.split('\\n')) {\n    if (!line.trim()) continue\n    trajectories.push(JSON.parse(line) as FeedbackTrajectory)\n  }\n  return trajectories\n}\n\nexport function controlRunToFeedbackTrajectory<TState, TAction, TActionResult>(\n  run: ControlRunResult<TState, TAction, TActionResult>,\n  options: {\n    projectId?: string\n    scenarioId?: string\n    artifactType?: FeedbackArtifactType\n    artifactFromStep?: (step: ControlStep<TState, TAction, TActionResult>) => unknown\n    proposedActionFromStep?: (step: ControlStep<TState, TAction, TActionResult>) => ProposedSideEffect | undefined\n    createdAt?: string\n  } = {},\n): FeedbackTrajectory {\n  const createdAt = options.createdAt ?? new Date().toISOString()\n  const trajectoryId = run.runId ?? `ft_control_${stableHash(`${run.intent}|${createdAt}`).toString(16)}`\n  return createFeedbackTrajectory({\n    id: trajectoryId,\n    projectId: options.projectId,\n    scenarioId: options.scenarioId,\n    task: { intent: run.intent },\n    createdAt,\n    attempts: run.steps.map((step) => ({\n      id: `${trajectoryId}_step_${step.index}`,\n      stepIndex: step.index,\n      artifactType: options.artifactType ?? 'action',\n      artifact: options.artifactFromStep?.(step) ?? step.actionOutcome?.result ?? step.decision,\n      proposedAction: options.proposedActionFromStep?.(step),\n      evals: step.evalsAfter,\n      createdAt: step.startedAt,\n      metadata: {\n        decision: step.decision,\n        actionOutcome: step.actionOutcome,\n      },\n    })),\n    labels: [\n      {\n        source: 'system',\n        kind: run.pass ? 'approve' : 'reject',\n        value: run.pass,\n        reason: run.reason,\n        severity: run.pass ? 'info' : 'error',\n        createdAt,\n      },\n    ],\n    outcome: {\n      success: run.pass,\n      score: run.score,\n      costUsd: run.spentCostUsd,\n      detail: run.reason,\n      observedAt: createdAt,\n      metadata: {\n        stoppedBy: run.stoppedBy,\n        failureClass: run.failureClass,\n      },\n    },\n  })\n}\n\nfunction allLabels(trajectory: FeedbackTrajectory): FeedbackLabel[] {\n  const labels = [\n    ...trajectory.labels,\n    ...trajectory.attempts.flatMap((attempt) => attempt.feedback ?? []),\n  ]\n  const seen = new Set<string>()\n  return labels.filter((label) => {\n    const key = label.id ?? `${label.source}|${label.kind}|${label.createdAt}|${JSON.stringify(label.value)}`\n    if (seen.has(key)) return false\n    seen.add(key)\n    return true\n  })\n}\n\nfunction scoreFromLabels(labels: FeedbackLabel[]): number | undefined {\n  if (!labels.length) return undefined\n  const scored = labels.map((label) => {\n    if (label.kind === 'approve' || label.kind === 'select') return 1\n    if (label.kind === 'reject' || label.kind === 'policy_block') return 0\n    if (label.kind === 'rate' && typeof label.value === 'number') return Math.max(0, Math.min(1, label.value))\n    return undefined\n  }).filter((value): value is number => typeof value === 'number')\n  if (!scored.length) return undefined\n  return Math.round((scored.reduce((sum, value) => sum + value, 0) / scored.length) * 1000) / 1000\n}\n\nfunction instructionFromLabel(trajectory: FeedbackTrajectory, label: FeedbackLabel): string | undefined {\n  if (label.kind === 'reject' && label.reason) return `Avoid outputs like \"${compact(trajectory.task.intent, 80)}\" when: ${label.reason}`\n  if (label.kind === 'revision_request' && label.reason) return `Revise similar work by applying: ${label.reason}`\n  if (label.kind === 'select' && label.reason) return `Prefer selected options for \"${compact(trajectory.task.intent, 80)}\" because: ${label.reason}`\n  if (label.kind === 'approve' && label.reason) return `Repeat the pattern approved for \"${compact(trajectory.task.intent, 80)}\": ${label.reason}`\n  if (label.kind === 'comment' && label.reason) return label.reason\n  return undefined\n}\n\nfunction weightForLabel(label: FeedbackLabel): number {\n  const severity = label.severity === 'critical' ? 4 : label.severity === 'error' ? 3 : label.severity === 'warning' ? 2 : 1\n  const source = label.source === 'user' ? 3 : label.source === 'metric' || label.source === 'environment' ? 2 : 1\n  return severity * source\n}\n\nfunction matchesFilter(trajectory: FeedbackTrajectory, filter: FeedbackTrajectoryFilter): boolean {\n  if (filter.projectId && trajectory.projectId !== filter.projectId) return false\n  if (filter.scenarioId && trajectory.scenarioId !== filter.scenarioId) return false\n  if (filter.split && trajectory.split !== filter.split) return false\n  if (filter.tag) {\n    const [key, value] = filter.tag\n    if (trajectory.tags?.[key] !== value) return false\n  }\n  return true\n}\n\nfunction cloneTrajectory(trajectory: FeedbackTrajectory): FeedbackTrajectory {\n  return JSON.parse(JSON.stringify(trajectory)) as FeedbackTrajectory\n}\n\nfunction compact(value: string, max: number): string {\n  const normalized = value.replace(/\\s+/g, ' ').trim()\n  return normalized.length > max ? `${normalized.slice(0, max).trim()}...` : normalized\n}\n\nfunction stableHash(input: string): number {\n  let hash = 2166136261\n  for (let i = 0; i < input.length; i += 1) {\n    hash ^= input.charCodeAt(i)\n    hash = Math.imul(hash, 16777619)\n  }\n  return hash >>> 0\n}\n\nfunction canonicalize(value: unknown): unknown {\n  if (value === null || typeof value !== 'object') return value\n  if (Array.isArray(value)) return value.map(canonicalize)\n  const out: Record<string, unknown> = {}\n  for (const key of Object.keys(value as Record<string, unknown>).sort()) {\n    out[key] = canonicalize((value as Record<string, unknown>)[key])\n  }\n  return out\n}\n","/**\n * Pareto frontier — multi-objective optimization over candidate runs.\n *\n * Lifted from ADC pareto.ts and blueprint-agent frontier.ts. When you're\n * trading off (cost, latency, quality) or (passRate, tokenBudget,\n * ttfb), you rarely have a single \"winner\" — you have a set of\n * non-dominated candidates. This module exposes:\n *\n *   - `paretoFrontier`: filter a set of candidates to the non-dominated ones\n *   - `dominates`: does A dominate B across all objectives?\n *\n * Each objective is declared with a direction: 'maximize' (higher=better)\n * or 'minimize' (lower=better). Candidates are any object; pass an\n * `objective(candidate)` accessor.\n */\n\nexport type Direction = 'maximize' | 'minimize'\n\nexport interface Objective<T> {\n  /** Stable label used in reports. */\n  name: string\n  direction: Direction\n  value: (candidate: T) => number\n}\n\nexport interface ParetoResult<T> {\n  frontier: T[]\n  dominated: T[]\n  /** Index map: frontier[i] dominates each of dominatedBy[i]. */\n  dominanceMap: Array<{ dominator: T; dominated: T[] }>\n}\n\n/** Does candidate A weakly dominate B — strictly better on at least one objective and no worse on any? */\nexport function dominates<T>(a: T, b: T, objectives: Objective<T>[]): boolean {\n  let strictlyBetter = false\n  for (const obj of objectives) {\n    const av = obj.value(a)\n    const bv = obj.value(b)\n    if (!Number.isFinite(av) || !Number.isFinite(bv)) return false\n    const aIsBetter = obj.direction === 'maximize' ? av > bv : av < bv\n    const aIsWorse = obj.direction === 'maximize' ? av < bv : av > bv\n    if (aIsWorse) return false\n    if (aIsBetter) strictlyBetter = true\n  }\n  return strictlyBetter\n}\n\n/**\n * Compute the non-dominated frontier. Candidates with NaN/Infinity on any\n * objective are excluded (can't rank them). A candidate enters the frontier\n * iff no other candidate dominates it.\n */\nexport function paretoFrontier<T>(candidates: T[], objectives: Objective<T>[]): ParetoResult<T> {\n  if (objectives.length === 0) {\n    throw new Error('paretoFrontier: at least 1 objective required')\n  }\n  const valid = candidates.filter((c) =>\n    objectives.every((o) => Number.isFinite(o.value(c))),\n  )\n  const frontier: T[] = []\n  const dominated: T[] = []\n  for (const c of valid) {\n    const isDominated = valid.some((other) => other !== c && dominates(other, c, objectives))\n    if (isDominated) dominated.push(c)\n    else frontier.push(c)\n  }\n  const dominanceMap = frontier.map((d) => ({\n    dominator: d,\n    dominated: dominated.filter((x) => dominates(d, x, objectives)),\n  }))\n  return { frontier, dominated, dominanceMap }\n}\n\n/**\n * Weighted-sum scalarisation. Use as a tie-break / single-winner selector\n * when callers don't want to consume a frontier. Each objective contributes\n * its normalised value (0..1 via min-max across the candidate pool) times\n * its weight; missing weights default to 1/N.\n *\n * Direction is honoured automatically — `minimize` axes have their values\n * inverted before scaling so \"higher scalar = better\" always holds.\n */\nexport function scalarScore<T>(\n  candidates: T[],\n  objectives: Objective<T>[],\n  options: { weights?: Partial<Record<string, number>> } = {},\n): Array<{ candidate: T; score: number }> {\n  if (candidates.length === 0) return []\n  const weights = options.weights ?? {}\n  const totalWeight = objectives.reduce((s, o) => s + (weights[o.name] ?? 1), 0)\n\n  // Pre-compute min/max per objective for normalisation.\n  const ranges = objectives.map((obj) => {\n    const values = candidates.map((c) => obj.value(c)).filter((v) => Number.isFinite(v))\n    if (values.length === 0) return { min: 0, max: 1 }\n    const min = Math.min(...values)\n    const max = Math.max(...values)\n    return { min, max: max === min ? min + 1 : max }\n  })\n\n  return candidates.map((c) => {\n    let score = 0\n    objectives.forEach((obj, i) => {\n      const v = obj.value(c)\n      if (!Number.isFinite(v)) return\n      const { min, max } = ranges[i]!\n      const normalised = (v - min) / (max - min)\n      const directional = obj.direction === 'maximize' ? normalised : 1 - normalised\n      const weight = (weights[obj.name] ?? 1) / totalWeight\n      score += directional * weight\n    })\n    return { candidate: c, score }\n  })\n}\n\n/**\n * NSGA-II crowding distance — secondary sort for ties on the frontier.\n *\n * When the Pareto front collapses to a single point (or many candidates tie\n * on dominance), naive selection picks arbitrarily and the population\n * degenerates over generations. NSGA-II preserves diversity by preferring\n * candidates with more empty space around them on the frontier.\n *\n * Returns an array of `{ candidate, distance }` in the SAME order as the\n * input. Higher distance = more isolated = should be preferred when\n * preserving diversity.\n */\nexport function crowdingDistance<T>(\n  candidates: T[],\n  objectives: Objective<T>[],\n): Array<{ candidate: T; distance: number }> {\n  const distances = new Map<T, number>(candidates.map((c) => [c, 0]))\n\n  for (const obj of objectives) {\n    const sorted = [...candidates].sort((a, b) => obj.value(a) - obj.value(b))\n    const min = obj.value(sorted[0]!)\n    const max = obj.value(sorted[sorted.length - 1]!)\n    const range = max - min || 1\n\n    // Boundary points get infinity (always preferred for diversity).\n    distances.set(sorted[0]!, Infinity)\n    distances.set(sorted[sorted.length - 1]!, Infinity)\n    for (let i = 1; i < sorted.length - 1; i++) {\n      const prev = obj.value(sorted[i - 1]!)\n      const next = obj.value(sorted[i + 1]!)\n      const current = distances.get(sorted[i]!)!\n      if (current === Infinity) continue\n      distances.set(sorted[i]!, current + (next - prev) / range)\n    }\n  }\n\n  return candidates.map((c) => ({ candidate: c, distance: distances.get(c) ?? 0 }))\n}\n\n/**\n * Pareto frontier with tie-break by crowding distance — the canonical\n * NSGA-II selection step. Returns the frontier sorted by descending crowding\n * distance so callers can `.slice(0, k)` to pick K diverse winners.\n */\nexport function paretoFrontierWithCrowding<T>(\n  candidates: T[],\n  objectives: Objective<T>[],\n): Array<{ candidate: T; distance: number }> {\n  const { frontier } = paretoFrontier(candidates, objectives)\n  if (frontier.length === 0) return []\n  const distances = crowdingDistance(frontier, objectives)\n  return distances.sort((a, b) => b.distance - a.distance)\n}\n","/**\n * HeldOutGate — first-class held-out paired-delta promotion gate.\n *\n * Encodes the \"honesty override\" pattern that lived inline in\n * `~/webb/redteam/scripts/agent-eval-autoresearch.ts:138–171`.\n * The optimizer's best-guess is one thing; what we should actually\n * ship is another. The gate is the line between them.\n *\n * A candidate is promoted iff ALL three pass:\n *\n *   1. **Productive runs**: the candidate has at least\n *      `minProductiveRuns` paired observations on items where BOTH\n *      candidate and baseline produced a real (non-silent) score.\n *   2. **Paired delta**: the lower bound of the bootstrap CI on the\n *      median per-item delta (candidate − baseline) on the HOLDOUT\n *      split is strictly greater than `pairedDeltaThreshold`.\n *   3. **Overfit gap**: the candidate's gap between search-split\n *      score and holdout-split score is no worse (more positive)\n *      than the baseline's gap by more than `overfitGapThreshold`.\n *      \"Better on search, worse on holdout\" is the canonical\n *      overfit pattern; this catches it.\n *\n * The decision carries a machine-readable `rejectionCode` plus an\n * `evidence` block with every number the gate looked at, so the\n * downstream researcher / paper / dashboard can re-derive the\n * verdict without re-running.\n *\n * See also:\n *   - `src/paired-stats.ts` for `pairedBootstrap` + `pairedWilcoxon`\n *   - `src/run-record.ts` for the input row schema\n *   - `src/reference-replay.ts` for the older, reference-replay-\n *     specific promotion path (still useful for replay-style evals).\n */\n\nimport type { RunRecord } from './run-record'\nimport { pairedBootstrap, pairedWilcoxon } from './paired-stats'\n\nexport type HeldOutGateRejectionCode =\n  | 'few_runs'\n  | 'negative_delta'\n  | 'overfit_gap'\n\nexport interface HeldOutGateConfig {\n  /** Minimum number of paired (candidate, baseline) holdout observations\n   *  required before the gate will even consider promoting. Default 3. */\n  minProductiveRuns?: number\n  /** The bootstrap-CI lower bound on the median paired holdout delta\n   *  must exceed this to promote. Default 0. */\n  pairedDeltaThreshold?: number\n  /** Maximum allowed worsening of (search − holdout) gap relative to\n   *  baseline. Default 0.15 (i.e. candidate may overfit by up to 15\n   *  absolute score points more than baseline before rejection). */\n  overfitGapThreshold?: number\n  /** Stable label of the baseline candidate. Required — paper-grade\n   *  evaluation never compares two unlabelled candidates. */\n  baselineKey: string\n  /** Confidence level for the bootstrap CI. Default 0.95. */\n  confidence?: number\n  /** Bootstrap resamples. Default 2000. */\n  bootstrapResamples?: number\n  /** Optional deterministic seed for the bootstrap. Default undefined\n   *  (Math.random). */\n  seed?: number\n}\n\nexport interface GateEvidence {\n  /** Number of paired (candidate, baseline) holdout observations used. */\n  productiveRuns: number\n  /** Median of (candidate − baseline) paired holdout deltas. */\n  medianPairedDelta: number\n  /** Bootstrap CI on the median paired holdout delta. */\n  pairedCI: { low: number; high: number }\n  /** Wilcoxon signed-rank p-value on the paired holdout deltas. */\n  pairedPValue: number\n  /** Mean candidate score on the search split (NaN if none). */\n  searchScore: number\n  /** Mean candidate score on the holdout split (NaN if none). */\n  holdoutScore: number\n  /** Candidate (search − holdout) gap. */\n  overfitGap: number\n  /** Baseline (search − holdout) gap. */\n  baselineOverfitGap: number\n}\n\nexport interface GateDecision {\n  /** Final promote/no-promote verdict. */\n  promote: boolean\n  /** The candidate that was evaluated. */\n  candidateId: string\n  /** The baseline it was compared against. */\n  baselineId: string\n  /** Every number the gate looked at, for audit + paper export. */\n  evidence: GateEvidence\n  /** Human-readable reason. */\n  reason: string\n  /** Machine-readable rejection code, or null on promote. */\n  rejectionCode: HeldOutGateRejectionCode | null\n}\n\n/**\n * Held-out paired-delta promotion gate. Construct once with config,\n * call `evaluate(candidateRuns, baselineRuns)` per (candidate,\n * baseline) pair. Stateless across calls.\n */\nexport class HeldOutGate {\n  private readonly minProductiveRuns: number\n  private readonly pairedDeltaThreshold: number\n  private readonly overfitGapThreshold: number\n  private readonly baselineKey: string\n  private readonly confidence: number\n  private readonly resamples: number\n  private readonly seed?: number\n\n  constructor(config: HeldOutGateConfig) {\n    if (!config.baselineKey) {\n      throw new Error('HeldOutGate: baselineKey is required')\n    }\n    this.minProductiveRuns = config.minProductiveRuns ?? 3\n    this.pairedDeltaThreshold = config.pairedDeltaThreshold ?? 0\n    this.overfitGapThreshold = config.overfitGapThreshold ?? 0.15\n    this.baselineKey = config.baselineKey\n    this.confidence = config.confidence ?? 0.95\n    this.resamples = config.bootstrapResamples ?? 2000\n    this.seed = config.seed\n  }\n\n  /** Decide whether `candidate` should replace `baseline`. Pairing\n   *  is by (experimentId, seed) — identical experiment + seed pairs\n   *  the candidate run with the matching baseline run. Pairs without\n   *  a holdout score on both sides are dropped. */\n  evaluate(candidate: RunRecord[], baseline: RunRecord[]): GateDecision {\n    const candidateId = inferCandidateId(candidate, this.baselineKey)\n    const baselineId = this.baselineKey\n\n    // Pair holdout runs by (experimentId, seed).\n    const baselineHoldoutByKey = indexHoldoutByKey(baseline)\n    const beforeHoldout: number[] = []\n    const afterHoldout: number[] = []\n    for (const run of candidate) {\n      if (run.splitTag !== 'holdout') continue\n      if (run.outcome.holdoutScore === undefined) continue\n      const key = pairKey(run)\n      const counterpart = baselineHoldoutByKey.get(key)\n      if (counterpart === undefined) continue\n      beforeHoldout.push(counterpart)\n      afterHoldout.push(run.outcome.holdoutScore)\n    }\n\n    const productiveRuns = beforeHoldout.length\n\n    // Always compute the gap numbers — useful even when we reject on\n    // few_runs (you want to see why).\n    const candidateSearchMean = mean(scores(candidate, 'searchScore', 'search'))\n    const candidateHoldoutMean = mean(scores(candidate, 'holdoutScore', 'holdout'))\n    const baselineSearchMean = mean(scores(baseline, 'searchScore', 'search'))\n    const baselineHoldoutMean = mean(scores(baseline, 'holdoutScore', 'holdout'))\n\n    const overfitGap = safeDiff(candidateSearchMean, candidateHoldoutMean)\n    const baselineOverfitGap = safeDiff(baselineSearchMean, baselineHoldoutMean)\n\n    // Few-runs gate.\n    if (productiveRuns < this.minProductiveRuns) {\n      return {\n        promote: false,\n        candidateId,\n        baselineId,\n        evidence: {\n          productiveRuns,\n          medianPairedDelta: productiveRuns > 0 ? medianDelta(beforeHoldout, afterHoldout) : 0,\n          pairedCI: { low: 0, high: 0 },\n          pairedPValue: 1,\n          searchScore: candidateSearchMean,\n          holdoutScore: candidateHoldoutMean,\n          overfitGap,\n          baselineOverfitGap,\n        },\n        reason: `few_runs: ${productiveRuns} paired holdout observation(s) < min ${this.minProductiveRuns}`,\n        rejectionCode: 'few_runs',\n      }\n    }\n\n    // Paired bootstrap on holdout deltas.\n    const ci = pairedBootstrap(beforeHoldout, afterHoldout, {\n      confidence: this.confidence,\n      resamples: this.resamples,\n      statistic: 'median',\n      seed: this.seed,\n    })\n    const wilcoxon = pairedWilcoxon(beforeHoldout, afterHoldout)\n\n    const evidence: GateEvidence = {\n      productiveRuns,\n      medianPairedDelta: ci.median,\n      pairedCI: { low: ci.low, high: ci.high },\n      pairedPValue: wilcoxon.p,\n      searchScore: candidateSearchMean,\n      holdoutScore: candidateHoldoutMean,\n      overfitGap,\n      baselineOverfitGap,\n    }\n\n    // Negative-delta gate (CI lower bound must clear the threshold).\n    if (!(ci.low > this.pairedDeltaThreshold)) {\n      return {\n        promote: false,\n        candidateId,\n        baselineId,\n        evidence,\n        reason:\n          `negative_delta: paired holdout median Δ=${fmt(ci.median)} ` +\n          `CI=[${fmt(ci.low)}, ${fmt(ci.high)}] does not clear threshold ${fmt(this.pairedDeltaThreshold)}`,\n        rejectionCode: 'negative_delta',\n      }\n    }\n\n    // Overfit-gap gate. We allow some absolute slack —\n    // candidate.gap ≤ baseline.gap + overfitGapThreshold.\n    if (\n      Number.isFinite(overfitGap) &&\n      Number.isFinite(baselineOverfitGap) &&\n      overfitGap > baselineOverfitGap + this.overfitGapThreshold\n    ) {\n      return {\n        promote: false,\n        candidateId,\n        baselineId,\n        evidence,\n        reason:\n          `overfit_gap: candidate gap=${fmt(overfitGap)} exceeds baseline gap=${fmt(baselineOverfitGap)} ` +\n          `by more than ${fmt(this.overfitGapThreshold)}`,\n        rejectionCode: 'overfit_gap',\n      }\n    }\n\n    return {\n      promote: true,\n      candidateId,\n      baselineId,\n      evidence,\n      reason:\n        `promote: paired holdout median Δ=${fmt(ci.median)} ` +\n        `CI=[${fmt(ci.low)}, ${fmt(ci.high)}] over ${productiveRuns} pairs; ` +\n        `overfit gap candidate=${fmt(overfitGap)} vs baseline=${fmt(baselineOverfitGap)}`,\n      rejectionCode: null,\n    }\n  }\n}\n\n// ── Helpers ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────\n\nfunction inferCandidateId(candidate: RunRecord[], baselineKey: string): string {\n  for (const run of candidate) {\n    if (run.candidateId && run.candidateId !== baselineKey) return run.candidateId\n  }\n  // All candidate rows match the baseline key — caller mistake, but\n  // surface the symptom rather than throwing inside the gate.\n  return candidate[0]?.candidateId ?? '(unknown candidate)'\n}\n\nfunction indexHoldoutByKey(runs: RunRecord[]): Map<string, number> {\n  const out = new Map<string, number>()\n  for (const r of runs) {\n    if (r.splitTag !== 'holdout') continue\n    if (r.outcome.holdoutScore === undefined) continue\n    out.set(pairKey(r), r.outcome.holdoutScore)\n  }\n  return out\n}\n\nfunction pairKey(r: RunRecord): string {\n  return `${r.experimentId}::${r.seed}`\n}\n\nfunction scores(\n  runs: RunRecord[],\n  field: 'searchScore' | 'holdoutScore',\n  splitFilter: 'search' | 'holdout',\n): number[] {\n  const out: number[] = []\n  for (const r of runs) {\n    if (r.splitTag !== splitFilter) continue\n    const v = r.outcome[field]\n    if (typeof v === 'number' && Number.isFinite(v)) out.push(v)\n  }\n  return out\n}\n\nfunction mean(xs: number[]): number {\n  if (xs.length === 0) return Number.NaN\n  return xs.reduce((s, x) => s + x, 0) / xs.length\n}\n\nfunction safeDiff(a: number, b: number): number {\n  if (!Number.isFinite(a) || !Number.isFinite(b)) return Number.NaN\n  return a - b\n}\n\nfunction medianDelta(before: number[], after: number[]): number {\n  const ds = before.map((b, i) => after[i]! - b).sort((x, y) => x - y)\n  if (ds.length === 0) return 0\n  const mid = Math.floor(ds.length / 2)\n  return ds.length % 2 === 0 ? (ds[mid - 1]! + ds[mid]!) / 2 : ds[mid]!\n}\n\nfunction fmt(x: number): string {\n  if (!Number.isFinite(x)) return String(x)\n  return x.toFixed(4)\n}\n","/**\n * Researcher interface — stable hook for an external autonomous-research\n * agent to drive the meta-loop.\n *\n * Implementations live downstream (typically in a private repo that\n * runs the actual LLM). This package ships only the contract + a\n * `NoopResearcher` so consumers can wire the surface without being\n * forced to implement every method up front.\n *\n * The four methods mirror the four stages of the paper \"Two Loops,\n * Three Roles\":\n *\n *   inspectFailures   — given the observed runs, what failure modes\n *                       are present? (data → diagnosis)\n *   proposeChange     — given diagnosed failure modes, what\n *                       structural changes should we try?\n *                       (diagnosis → plan delta)\n *   applyChange       — fold the proposed deltas into a concrete\n *                       experiment plan against an existing baseline.\n *                       (plan delta → executable plan)\n *   evaluateChange    — run the plan, return runs + the gate verdict.\n *                       (executable plan → verdict)\n *\n * Composition is the discipline: a Researcher implementation MUST\n * keep these four steps separate and inspectable. Conflating\n * \"diagnose + propose + run\" into a single LLM call defeats the\n * point of the framework — you can't audit which step lied.\n *\n * THIS INTERFACE IS STABLE. Breaking changes require a new module\n * (e.g. `Researcher2`) so existing implementations keep working.\n */\n\nimport type { GateDecision } from './held-out-gate'\nimport type { RunRecord, RunSplitTag } from './run-record'\n\n/** A diagnosed failure mode with the run-IDs that exhibit it. */\nexport interface FailureMode {\n  /** Short machine-readable code. Must be stable across runs of the\n   *  same researcher to enable longitudinal tracking. */\n  code: string\n  /** Human-readable description for the paper / dashboard. */\n  description: string\n  evidence: {\n    /** Run IDs (from `RunRecord.runId`) where this failure mode was\n     *  observed. */\n    runIds: string[]\n    /** Number of run samples that informed the diagnosis. */\n    samples: number\n  }\n}\n\n/** A single steering change the researcher wants to try. */\nexport interface SteeringChange {\n  kind: 'reviewer_prompt' | 'skill_add' | 'skill_remove' | 'threshold' | 'budget'\n  /** Implementation-specific payload. Researcher implementations\n   *  define the schema — keep this `unknown` here to avoid coupling\n   *  the public interface to any one researcher's internal model. */\n  payload: unknown\n  /** Why the researcher proposed this change. Goes into the audit\n   *  trail next to the failure-mode evidence. */\n  rationale: string\n  /** Optional self-reported expected delta on the headline metric. */\n  expectedDelta?: number\n}\n\n/** A single experiment plan, mapped onto the search/holdout splits. */\nexport interface ExperimentPlan {\n  baselineCandidateId: string\n  proposedCandidateId: string\n  changes: SteeringChange[]\n  /** USD ceiling for the entire experiment. The runner must stop\n   *  before exceeding this and report a partial result. */\n  evaluationBudgetUsd: number\n  /** Item IDs (your dataset keys) for the search vs holdout splits. */\n  splits: { search: string[]; holdout: string[] }\n}\n\n/** Result of running a plan: every run, plus the gate verdict. */\nexport interface ExperimentResult {\n  plan: ExperimentPlan\n  runs: RunRecord[]\n  gateDecision: GateDecision\n}\n\n/**\n * The researcher loop. Stable, four-step, inspectable.\n *\n *   ┌──────────┐  inspectFailures  ┌──────────┐  proposeChange ┌──────────┐\n *   │   runs   │ ─────────────────▶│ failures │ ──────────────▶│ changes  │\n *   └──────────┘                   └──────────┘                └────┬─────┘\n *                                                                   │\n *                                                                   ▼\n *                              ┌────────────────┐  applyChange ┌────────┐\n *                              │ ExperimentPlan │ ◀────────────│  base  │\n *                              └────────┬───────┘              └────────┘\n *                                       │\n *                       evaluateChange  ▼\n *                              ┌────────────────┐\n *                              │ ExperimentResult│\n *                              └────────────────┘\n */\nexport interface Researcher {\n  inspectFailures(runs: RunRecord[]): Promise<FailureMode[]>\n  proposeChange(failures: FailureMode[]): Promise<SteeringChange[]>\n  applyChange(changes: SteeringChange[], baseline: ExperimentPlan): Promise<ExperimentPlan>\n  evaluateChange(plan: ExperimentPlan): Promise<ExperimentResult>\n}\n\nexport interface CallbackResearcherOptions {\n  inspectFailures: Researcher['inspectFailures']\n  proposeChange: Researcher['proposeChange']\n  applyChange: Researcher['applyChange']\n  evaluateChange: Researcher['evaluateChange']\n}\n\n/**\n * Minimal concrete researcher for tests, scripts, and small integrations.\n * Larger autonomous researchers can still implement `Researcher` directly.\n */\nexport class CallbackResearcher implements Researcher {\n  constructor(private readonly callbacks: CallbackResearcherOptions) {}\n\n  inspectFailures(runs: RunRecord[]): Promise<FailureMode[]> {\n    return this.callbacks.inspectFailures(runs)\n  }\n\n  proposeChange(failures: FailureMode[]): Promise<SteeringChange[]> {\n    return this.callbacks.proposeChange(failures)\n  }\n\n  applyChange(changes: SteeringChange[], baseline: ExperimentPlan): Promise<ExperimentPlan> {\n    return this.callbacks.applyChange(changes, baseline)\n  }\n\n  evaluateChange(plan: ExperimentPlan): Promise<ExperimentResult> {\n    return this.callbacks.evaluateChange(plan)\n  }\n}\n\n/**\n * No-op researcher — fails loud on every method. Use as a placeholder\n * in code paths that wire the interface but don't have an implementation\n * yet. Importantly, this does NOT silently succeed: a no-op researcher\n * that returned empty arrays would muffle the loop's signal that\n * nobody implemented the brain.\n */\nexport class NoopResearcher implements Researcher {\n  private readonly hint: string\n\n  constructor(hint = 'NoopResearcher: no implementation wired') {\n    this.hint = hint\n  }\n\n  async inspectFailures(_runs: RunRecord[]): Promise<FailureMode[]> {\n    throw new Error(`${this.hint} (inspectFailures not implemented)`)\n  }\n\n  async proposeChange(_failures: FailureMode[]): Promise<SteeringChange[]> {\n    throw new Error(`${this.hint} (proposeChange not implemented)`)\n  }\n\n  async applyChange(_changes: SteeringChange[], _baseline: ExperimentPlan): Promise<ExperimentPlan> {\n    throw new Error(`${this.hint} (applyChange not implemented)`)\n  }\n\n  async evaluateChange(_plan: ExperimentPlan): Promise<ExperimentResult> {\n    throw new Error(`${this.hint} (evaluateChange not implemented)`)\n  }\n}\n\n/** Re-export the split alias so callers don't have to import twice. */\nexport type { RunSplitTag }\n","/**\n * PromptEvolutionLoop — population-based reflective-mutation evolution.\n *\n * Above the existing `AxGepaSteeringOptimizer` (which RANKS variants),\n * this loop GENERATES variants. Each generation:\n *   1. Score the population across (variant × scenario × rep).\n *   2. Pick survivors from the Pareto frontier (with crowding-distance tie-break).\n *   3. Ask the mutator for replacements until population size is restored.\n *   4. Repeat for N generations OR until convergence.\n *\n * Domain-agnostic. Consumers supply:\n *   - A seed population of `EvolvableVariant`s.\n *   - A `ScoreAdapter` that runs (variant, scenario, rep) → `TrialResult`.\n *   - A `MutateAdapter` that produces children given trace evidence.\n *   - Pareto `Objective<TrialAggregate>[]` defining the multi-objective vector.\n *\n * The loop owns: population management, parallel scheduling (concurrency-\n * limited), Pareto selection with crowding distance, generation reporting.\n *\n * It does NOT own: rendering trials to a model, executing prompts, choosing\n * mutation primitives, persisting to disk. Those are the consumer's call.\n */\n\nimport { paretoFrontierWithCrowding, scalarScore, type Objective } from './pareto'\n\nexport interface EvolvableVariant<P = unknown> {\n  /** Stable id for the variant — surfaces in reports and trial results. */\n  id: string\n  /** Variant payload — interpretation is the consumer's responsibility. */\n  payload: P\n  /** Generation index (0 = seed, then 1, 2, ...). */\n  generation: number\n  /** Parent variant id when produced via mutation; absent for seeds. */\n  parentId?: string\n  /** Human label for reports. */\n  label: string\n  /** What the mutator was trying to fix. */\n  rationale?: string\n}\n\nexport interface TrialResult {\n  variantId: string\n  scenarioId: string\n  rep: number\n  ok: boolean\n  /** Primary scalar score the consumer cares about (e.g., recall, accuracy). */\n  score: number\n  /** Token cost (or any cost-like dimension). */\n  cost?: number\n  /** Wall time in ms. */\n  durationMs?: number\n  /** Free-form metric bag for objective accessors. */\n  metrics?: Record<string, number>\n  error?: string\n}\n\n/** Aggregated trial summary for one (variant, scenario) pair across reps. */\nexport interface ScenarioAggregate {\n  variantId: string\n  scenarioId: string\n  meanScore: number\n  meanCost: number\n  meanDurationMs: number\n  okRate: number\n  trials: number\n  /** Mean of every numeric metric across reps. */\n  metrics: Record<string, number>\n}\n\n/** Aggregated trial summary for one variant across all scenarios. */\nexport interface VariantAggregate {\n  variantId: string\n  meanScore: number\n  meanCost: number\n  meanDurationMs: number\n  okRate: number\n  scenarios: ScenarioAggregate[]\n  /** Mean of every numeric metric, averaged across scenarios. */\n  metrics: Record<string, number>\n}\n\nexport interface ScoreAdapter<P = unknown> {\n  score(args: {\n    variant: EvolvableVariant<P>\n    scenarioId: string\n    rep: number\n  }): Promise<TrialResult>\n}\n\nexport interface MutateAdapter<P = unknown> {\n  mutate(args: {\n    parent: EvolvableVariant<P>\n    parentAggregate: VariantAggregate\n    topTrials: TrialResult[]\n    bottomTrials: TrialResult[]\n    childCount: number\n    generation: number\n  }): Promise<EvolvableVariant<P>[]>\n}\n\nexport interface PromptEvolutionConfig<P = unknown> {\n  runId: string\n  /** What component is being mutated — surfaces in reports + reflection prompts. */\n  target: string\n  seedVariants: EvolvableVariant<P>[]\n  scenarioIds: string[]\n  reps: number\n  generations: number\n  populationSize: number\n  /** Maximum concurrent score() calls. */\n  scoreConcurrency: number\n  scoreAdapter: ScoreAdapter<P>\n  mutateAdapter: MutateAdapter<P>\n  /** Pareto objectives over `VariantAggregate`. Ordered by importance. */\n  objectives: Objective<VariantAggregate>[]\n  /** Optional weights for the scalar tie-break selector (by objective name). */\n  scalarWeights?: Record<string, number>\n  /** Stop early if a generation produces no Pareto improvement. Default true. */\n  earlyStopOnNoImprovement?: boolean\n  onProgress?: (event: PromptEvolutionEvent) => void\n  /**\n   * Optional cache key for memoising scored (variantId, scenarioId, rep)\n   * tuples. When provided AND a cache instance is passed, repeated trials\n   * skip re-scoring. Cache keys are stable across runs.\n   */\n  cache?: TrialCache\n}\n\nexport interface TrialCache {\n  get(key: string): TrialResult | undefined\n  set(key: string, value: TrialResult): void\n}\n\nexport class InMemoryTrialCache implements TrialCache {\n  private store = new Map<string, TrialResult>()\n  get(key: string): TrialResult | undefined { return this.store.get(key) }\n  set(key: string, value: TrialResult): void { this.store.set(key, value) }\n  size(): number { return this.store.size }\n  clear(): void { this.store.clear() }\n}\n\nexport type PromptEvolutionEvent =\n  | { type: 'generation-start'; generation: number; populationSize: number }\n  | { type: 'trial-complete'; generation: number; variantId: string; scenarioId: string; rep: number; ok: boolean; score: number; cached: boolean }\n  | { type: 'generation-complete'; report: GenerationReport<unknown> }\n  | { type: 'converged'; generation: number; reason: string }\n\nexport interface GenerationReport<P = unknown> {\n  runId: string\n  target: string\n  generation: number\n  variants: EvolvableVariant<P>[]\n  aggregates: VariantAggregate[]\n  /** Frontier candidates, sorted by descending crowding distance. */\n  paretoFrontIds: string[]\n  /** Scalar-best variant id — used for the single \"winner\" if callers want one. */\n  winnerId: string\n  /** Trials that fed this generation (kept for downstream reporting). */\n  trials: TrialResult[]\n}\n\nexport interface PromptEvolutionResult<P = unknown> {\n  runId: string\n  target: string\n  generations: GenerationReport<P>[]\n  /** Best variant by scalar score in the final generation. */\n  bestVariant: EvolvableVariant<P>\n  /** Best aggregate (matches bestVariant). */\n  bestAggregate: VariantAggregate\n}\n\nexport async function runPromptEvolution<P>(\n  config: PromptEvolutionConfig<P>,\n): Promise<PromptEvolutionResult<P>> {\n  const generations: GenerationReport<P>[] = []\n  let population = [...config.seedVariants]\n  let bestVariant: EvolvableVariant<P> = population[0]!\n  let bestAggregate: VariantAggregate | null = null\n\n  for (let generation = 0; generation < config.generations; generation++) {\n    config.onProgress?.({ type: 'generation-start', generation, populationSize: population.length })\n\n    const trials = await scorePopulation(population, config, generation)\n    const aggregates = aggregateTrials(population, config.scenarioIds, trials)\n\n    const front = paretoFrontierWithCrowding(aggregates, config.objectives)\n    const frontIds = new Set(front.map((c) => c.candidate.variantId))\n\n    const scored = scalarScore(aggregates, config.objectives, { weights: config.scalarWeights })\n    scored.sort((a, b) => b.score - a.score)\n    const winnerId = scored[0]?.candidate.variantId ?? aggregates[0]?.variantId ?? population[0]!.id\n\n    const report: GenerationReport<P> = {\n      runId: config.runId,\n      target: config.target,\n      generation,\n      variants: population,\n      aggregates,\n      paretoFrontIds: front.map((c) => c.candidate.variantId),\n      winnerId,\n      trials,\n    }\n    generations.push(report)\n    config.onProgress?.({ type: 'generation-complete', report })\n\n    const winnerAgg = aggregates.find((a) => a.variantId === winnerId)\n    if (winnerAgg) {\n      const winner = population.find((v) => v.id === winnerId)\n      if (winner) bestVariant = winner\n      bestAggregate = winnerAgg\n    }\n\n    // Convergence: no Pareto-or-scalar improvement vs previous generation.\n    if (config.earlyStopOnNoImprovement !== false && generations.length >= 2) {\n      const prev = generations[generations.length - 2]!\n      const noChange = prev.winnerId === winnerId && samePopulation(prev.paretoFrontIds, [...frontIds])\n      if (noChange) {\n        config.onProgress?.({ type: 'converged', generation, reason: 'no improvement vs previous generation' })\n        break\n      }\n    }\n\n    if (generation === config.generations - 1) break\n\n    population = await nextPopulation(population, aggregates, trials, front, config, generation + 1)\n  }\n\n  return {\n    runId: config.runId,\n    target: config.target,\n    generations,\n    bestVariant,\n    bestAggregate: bestAggregate ?? aggregateTrials(population, config.scenarioIds, []).find((a) => a.variantId === bestVariant.id)!,\n  }\n}\n\nasync function scorePopulation<P>(\n  population: EvolvableVariant<P>[],\n  config: PromptEvolutionConfig<P>,\n  generation: number,\n): Promise<TrialResult[]> {\n  const jobs: Array<() => Promise<TrialResult>> = []\n  for (const variant of population) {\n    for (const scenarioId of config.scenarioIds) {\n      for (let rep = 0; rep < config.reps; rep++) {\n        jobs.push(async () => {\n          const cacheKey = `${variant.id}|${scenarioId}|${rep}`\n          const cached = config.cache?.get(cacheKey)\n          if (cached) {\n            config.onProgress?.({\n              type: 'trial-complete',\n              generation,\n              variantId: variant.id,\n              scenarioId,\n              rep,\n              ok: cached.ok,\n              score: cached.score,\n              cached: true,\n            })\n            return cached\n          }\n          const result = await config.scoreAdapter.score({ variant, scenarioId, rep })\n          config.cache?.set(cacheKey, result)\n          config.onProgress?.({\n            type: 'trial-complete',\n            generation,\n            variantId: variant.id,\n            scenarioId,\n            rep,\n            ok: result.ok,\n            score: result.score,\n            cached: false,\n          })\n          return result\n        })\n      }\n    }\n  }\n  return runWithConcurrency(jobs, config.scoreConcurrency)\n}\n\nasync function runWithConcurrency<T>(jobs: Array<() => Promise<T>>, concurrency: number): Promise<T[]> {\n  const results: T[] = new Array(jobs.length)\n  const limit = Math.max(1, concurrency)\n  let next = 0\n  async function worker(): Promise<void> {\n    while (true) {\n      const i = next++\n      if (i >= jobs.length) return\n      results[i] = await jobs[i]!()\n    }\n  }\n  await Promise.all(Array.from({ length: limit }, () => worker()))\n  return results\n}\n\nfunction aggregateTrials<P>(\n  population: EvolvableVariant<P>[],\n  scenarioIds: string[],\n  trials: TrialResult[],\n): VariantAggregate[] {\n  return population.map((variant) => {\n    const variantTrials = trials.filter((t) => t.variantId === variant.id)\n    const scenarios = scenarioIds.map<ScenarioAggregate>((sid) => {\n      const scenarioTrials = variantTrials.filter((t) => t.scenarioId === sid)\n      const okTrials = scenarioTrials.filter((t) => t.ok)\n      // Mean score must include every successfully-graded trial — a trial\n      // with score=0.6 and ok=false (below quality_bar) is real signal, not\n      // noise. Only `error` trials (agent crash, judge crash) carry a\n      // synthetic score and are excluded. okRate continues to reflect the\n      // pass/fail rate against the configured quality_bar.\n      const gradedTrials = scenarioTrials.filter((t) => !t.error)\n      const metrics = aggregateMetrics(gradedTrials.map((t) => t.metrics ?? {}))\n      return {\n        variantId: variant.id,\n        scenarioId: sid,\n        meanScore: mean(gradedTrials.map((t) => t.score)),\n        meanCost: mean(gradedTrials.map((t) => t.cost ?? 0)),\n        meanDurationMs: mean(gradedTrials.map((t) => t.durationMs ?? 0)),\n        okRate: scenarioTrials.length === 0 ? 0 : okTrials.length / scenarioTrials.length,\n        trials: scenarioTrials.length,\n        metrics,\n      }\n    })\n    return {\n      variantId: variant.id,\n      meanScore: mean(scenarios.map((s) => s.meanScore)),\n      meanCost: mean(scenarios.map((s) => s.meanCost)),\n      meanDurationMs: mean(scenarios.map((s) => s.meanDurationMs)),\n      okRate: mean(scenarios.map((s) => s.okRate)),\n      scenarios,\n      metrics: aggregateMetrics(scenarios.map((s) => s.metrics)),\n    }\n  })\n}\n\nfunction aggregateMetrics(rows: Array<Record<string, number>>): Record<string, number> {\n  const buckets = new Map<string, number[]>()\n  for (const row of rows) {\n    for (const [k, v] of Object.entries(row)) {\n      if (!Number.isFinite(v)) continue\n      const list = buckets.get(k) ?? []\n      list.push(v)\n      buckets.set(k, list)\n    }\n  }\n  const out: Record<string, number> = {}\n  for (const [k, list] of buckets) out[k] = mean(list)\n  return out\n}\n\nfunction mean(xs: number[]): number {\n  if (xs.length === 0) return 0\n  return xs.reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0) / xs.length\n}\n\nasync function nextPopulation<P>(\n  current: EvolvableVariant<P>[],\n  aggregates: VariantAggregate[],\n  trials: TrialResult[],\n  front: Array<{ candidate: VariantAggregate; distance: number }>,\n  config: PromptEvolutionConfig<P>,\n  nextGeneration: number,\n): Promise<EvolvableVariant<P>[]> {\n  const survivorIds = new Set(front.map((c) => c.candidate.variantId))\n  const survivors = current.filter((v) => survivorIds.has(v.id))\n\n  // Pick the best survivor (by scalar) as the mutation parent.\n  const ranked = scalarScore(aggregates, config.objectives, { weights: config.scalarWeights })\n    .sort((a, b) => b.score - a.score)\n  const parentId = ranked[0]?.candidate.variantId ?? current[0]!.id\n  const parent = current.find((v) => v.id === parentId) ?? current[0]!\n  const parentAggregate = aggregates.find((a) => a.variantId === parent.id) ?? aggregates[0]!\n\n  const topTrials = topKTrialsByScore(trials, parent.id, 3)\n  const bottomTrials = bottomKTrialsByScore(trials, parent.id, 3)\n  const childCount = Math.max(0, config.populationSize - survivors.length)\n  let children: EvolvableVariant<P>[] = []\n  if (childCount > 0) {\n    children = await config.mutateAdapter.mutate({\n      parent,\n      parentAggregate,\n      topTrials,\n      bottomTrials,\n      childCount,\n      generation: nextGeneration,\n    })\n    children = children.slice(0, childCount).map((c) => ({ ...c, generation: nextGeneration, parentId: parent.id }))\n  }\n  return [...survivors, ...children]\n}\n\nfunction topKTrialsByScore(trials: TrialResult[], variantId: string, k: number): TrialResult[] {\n  return trials.filter((t) => t.variantId === variantId && t.ok).sort((a, b) => b.score - a.score).slice(0, k)\n}\n\nfunction bottomKTrialsByScore(trials: TrialResult[], variantId: string, k: number): TrialResult[] {\n  return trials.filter((t) => t.variantId === variantId && t.ok).sort((a, b) => a.score - b.score).slice(0, k)\n}\n\nfunction samePopulation(a: string[], b: string[]): boolean {\n  if (a.length !== b.length) return false\n  const setA = new Set(a)\n  return b.every((id) => setA.has(id))\n}\n","/**\n * EvalCampaign — opinionated matrix runner that wires the four\n * capture-integrity directives by construction.\n *\n * Every consumer that ran a launch-grade benchmark before 0.22 reinvented\n * the same shape: matrix runner → for each (variant, scenario, seed) →\n * start a TraceEmitter → call LLMs → end the run → maybe analyze.\n * The bug class blueprint-agent reported (raw events not captured, route\n * silently wrong, integrity not asserted, analyst never ran) lives at the\n * integration boundary — not the agent-eval API surface. The four\n * directives in `SKILL.md § Capture integrity` are mitigations.\n *\n * `EvalCampaign` is the structural fix. Consumers don't wire the integrity\n * surface anymore; the campaign owns it. Specifically, the campaign:\n *\n *   - calls `assertLlmRoute` once at preflight before any work runs\n *   - constructs a per-run `TraceStore` and `RawProviderSink` via factories\n *   - constructs the `TraceEmitter` with `onRunComplete: [analyst hook]`\n *   - hands the runner an `LlmClientOptions` pre-wired with the sink and\n *     trace context — the runner can't accidentally call an LLM without\n *     capturing the raw HTTP envelope\n *   - calls `assertRunCaptured` after every `endRun` and routes failures\n *     through a configurable policy (`throw` / `mark_failed` / `log`)\n *   - assembles per-run `RunRecord`s and runs `researchReport` at the end\n *     so the campaign artifact is launch-decision-grade by default\n *   - embeds the campaign fingerprint (a SHA-256 over the canonicalised\n *     run set) and optional `preregistrationHash` in the report\n *\n * The runner contract is intentionally narrow: produce a `CampaignRunOutcome`\n * given a fully-wired `CampaignRunContext`. Everything orchestration-shaped\n * lives in the campaign. This is the inversion-of-control point — consumers\n * stop writing matrix runners and start writing scenario-runners.\n *\n * Out of scope for v1 (tracked in `docs/research-report-methodology.md`):\n *\n *   - Distributed/cluster execution (concurrency is local async)\n *   - Adaptive sampling / sequential interim looks\n *   - Resume from partial state across crashes\n *   - LLM-call retry beyond what `LlmClient` already does\n */\n\nimport { canonicalize, hashJson } from './pre-registration'\nimport { assertLlmRoute, type LlmClientOptions, type LlmRouteRequirements } from './llm-client'\nimport { TraceEmitter } from './trace/emitter'\nimport {\n  FileSystemRawProviderSink,\n  type RawProviderSink,\n} from './trace/raw-provider-sink'\nimport {\n  RunIntegrityError,\n  assertRunCaptured,\n  type RunIntegrityExpectations,\n  type RunIntegrityReport,\n} from './trace/integrity'\nimport type { RunCompleteHook } from './trace/emitter'\nimport type { TraceStore } from './trace/store'\nimport type {\n  RunJudgeMetadata,\n  RunOutcome,\n  RunRecord,\n  RunSplitTag,\n  RunTokenUsage,\n} from './run-record'\nimport {\n  researchReport,\n  type ResearchReport,\n  type ResearchReportOptions,\n} from './summary-report'\n\n// ── Public types ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────\n\nexport interface CampaignVariant<V> {\n  id: string\n  payload: V\n}\n\nexport interface CampaignScenario {\n  scenarioId: string\n  /** Free-form metadata propagated to runs and reports. */\n  tags?: Record<string, string>\n}\n\nexport interface CampaignRunContext<V> {\n  /** Stable run id. The campaign generates this; the runner does not. */\n  runId: string\n  /** Logical experiment id (campaignId by default; overridable per-run via opts). */\n  experimentId: string\n  variant: V\n  variantId: string\n  scenarioId: string\n  scenarioTags: Record<string, string>\n  seed: number\n  splitTag: RunSplitTag\n  /**\n   * The TraceEmitter for this run, with `onRunComplete` hooks pre-wired\n   * (analyst auto-execution if configured, plus integrity check). The\n   * runner MUST call `emitter.startRun` before doing any work and either\n   * `emitter.endRun` or `emitter.abortRun` before returning.\n   */\n  emitter: TraceEmitter\n  store: TraceStore\n  rawSink: RawProviderSink\n  /**\n   * Pre-wired LLM client options — `rawSink` and `traceContext` are populated\n   * so any `callLlm(req, ctx.llmOpts)` automatically captures raw HTTP. The\n   * runner can spread additional fields if needed.\n   */\n  llmOpts: LlmClientOptions\n}\n\nexport interface CampaignRunOutcome {\n  /** Did the run pass? Mirrors `RunOutcome.pass` semantics. */\n  pass: boolean\n  /** Score for the run on its split. Maps to `searchScore` or `holdoutScore`. */\n  score: number\n  /** Mandatory cost in USD. Use 0 + raw.cost_unknown=1 only if truly unknown. */\n  costUsd: number\n  tokenUsage: RunTokenUsage\n  /** Snapshot model id (e.g. `claude-sonnet-4-6@2025-04-15`). */\n  model: string\n  /** sha256 of the effective prompt sent to the model. */\n  promptHash: string\n  /** sha256 of the effective config (model, temperature, tools, judges, splits). */\n  configHash: string\n  /** Optional extra numeric metrics to land in `outcome.raw`. */\n  raw?: Record<string, number>\n  /** Optional failure-taxonomy tag if the run failed. */\n  failureMode?: string\n  /** Optional judge metadata when a judge was used. */\n  judgeMetadata?: RunJudgeMetadata\n}\n\nexport type CampaignRunner<V> = (ctx: CampaignRunContext<V>) => Promise<CampaignRunOutcome>\n\nexport type CampaignIntegrityPolicy = 'throw' | 'mark_failed' | 'log'\n\nexport interface EvalCampaignOptions<V> {\n  /**\n   * Stable id for the campaign. Used as the default `experimentId` on\n   * every run, and folded into the campaign fingerprint.\n   */\n  campaignId: string\n  variants: CampaignVariant<V>[]\n  scenarios: CampaignScenario[]\n  /** Default `[0, 1, 2]`. */\n  seeds?: number[]\n  /** Default `'holdout'` — the split that anchors a launch decision. */\n  splitTag?: RunSplitTag\n  /** Git SHA the campaign is run against. Mandatory; `RunRecord` rejects unset. */\n  commitSha: string\n  /**\n   * LLM client config. Augmented per-run with `rawSink` and `traceContext`\n   * before being passed to the runner. The campaign asserts this config\n   * matches `routeRequirements` once at preflight.\n   */\n  llmOpts: LlmClientOptions\n  /**\n   * Default `{ requireExplicitBaseUrl: true, requireAuth: true }` — fail\n   * loud if the campaign would silently fall back to the public router or\n   * run unauthenticated. Override with an empty object to disable.\n   */\n  routeRequirements?: LlmRouteRequirements\n  /**\n   * Per-run TraceStore factory. Common shape: a fresh store per run keyed\n   * on `runId`. Implementations that share a store across the campaign\n   * are valid — the campaign only writes through `emitter`.\n   */\n  storeFactory: (params: CampaignFactoryParams) => TraceStore\n  /**\n   * Per-run RawProviderSink factory. Defaults to `FileSystemRawProviderSink`\n   * rooted at `${workDir}/raw-events/${runId}` if `workDir` is supplied;\n   * otherwise required. Forensic capture is non-negotiable in a campaign\n   * run — pass `NoopRawProviderSink` explicitly if you want to opt out.\n   */\n  rawSinkFactory?: (params: CampaignFactoryParams) => RawProviderSink\n  /**\n   * Filesystem root for default `rawSinkFactory`. Ignored if\n   * `rawSinkFactory` is supplied.\n   */\n  workDir?: string\n  /**\n   * Extra `onRunComplete` hooks the campaign appends (after its own\n   * integrity-check hook). Pass `traceAnalystOnRunComplete(...)` here.\n   */\n  onRunComplete?: RunCompleteHook[]\n  /**\n   * Per-run integrity expectations. Defaults to:\n   *   `{ llmSpansMin: 1, requireRawCoverageOfLlmSpans: true, requireOutcome: true }`.\n   * Override (e.g. `{ llmSpansMin: 0 }`) for runs that don't call LLMs.\n   */\n  integrity?: RunIntegrityExpectations\n  /** Behaviour when integrity fails. Default `'mark_failed'`. */\n  onIntegrityFailure?: CampaignIntegrityPolicy\n  /**\n   * Per-run runner. Receives a fully-wired context; produces an outcome\n   * the campaign converts into a `RunRecord`.\n   */\n  runner: CampaignRunner<V>\n  /**\n   * If set, the campaign computes `researchReport` at the end. `comparator`\n   * is a `variantId`. Other fields are forwarded verbatim.\n   */\n  report?: { comparator?: string } & Omit<ResearchReportOptions, 'comparator' | 'preregistrationHash' | 'generatedAt'>\n  /**\n   * Hash of a signed `HypothesisManifest` (see `pre-registration.ts`).\n   * Embedded in the campaign fingerprint and the research report.\n   */\n  preregistrationHash?: string\n  /** Local concurrency. Default `1` (sequential). */\n  concurrency?: number\n  /**\n   * Override the time source. Tests pass a mock to make wallMs deterministic.\n   */\n  now?: () => number\n  /** Override the runId generator. Tests pin this. */\n  runId?: (params: CampaignFactoryParams) => string\n}\n\nexport interface CampaignFactoryParams {\n  campaignId: string\n  runId: string\n  variantId: string\n  scenarioId: string\n  seed: number\n}\n\nexport interface FailedRun {\n  runId: string\n  variantId: string\n  scenarioId: string\n  seed: number\n  reason: string\n  error?: string\n}\n\nexport interface EvalCampaignResult {\n  campaignId: string\n  /** SHA-256 over canonicalised `(variantIds, scenarioIds, seeds, comparator, splitTag, baseUrl, provider, preregistrationHash)`. */\n  campaignFingerprint: string\n  preregistrationHash: string | null\n  /** Successful runs only. Failed runs land in `failedRuns`. */\n  runs: RunRecord[]\n  /** Integrity reports for every successful run. */\n  integrityReports: RunIntegrityReport[]\n  failedRuns: FailedRun[]\n  /** Computed when `report` is set on options. */\n  report?: ResearchReport\n  startedAt: string\n  endedAt: string\n}\n\n// ── Implementation ───────────────────────────────────────────────────────\n\nconst DEFAULT_INTEGRITY: RunIntegrityExpectations = {\n  llmSpansMin: 1,\n  requireRawCoverageOfLlmSpans: true,\n  requireOutcome: true,\n}\n\nconst DEFAULT_ROUTE: LlmRouteRequirements = {\n  requireExplicitBaseUrl: true,\n  requireAuth: true,\n}\n\nexport async function runEvalCampaign<V>(opts: EvalCampaignOptions<V>): Promise<EvalCampaignResult> {\n  // ── Preflight ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────\n  assertLlmRoute(opts.llmOpts, opts.routeRequirements ?? DEFAULT_ROUTE)\n\n  if (opts.variants.length === 0) {\n    throw new Error('runEvalCampaign: variants must be non-empty.')\n  }\n  if (opts.scenarios.length === 0) {\n    throw new Error('runEvalCampaign: scenarios must be non-empty.')\n  }\n  const variantIds = new Set<string>()\n  for (const v of opts.variants) {\n    if (variantIds.has(v.id)) {\n      throw new Error(`runEvalCampaign: duplicate variant id \"${v.id}\".`)\n    }\n    variantIds.add(v.id)\n  }\n  const scenarioIds = new Set<string>()\n  for (const s of opts.scenarios) {\n    if (scenarioIds.has(s.scenarioId)) {\n      throw new Error(`runEvalCampaign: duplicate scenarioId \"${s.scenarioId}\".`)\n    }\n    scenarioIds.add(s.scenarioId)\n  }\n  if (opts.report?.comparator && !variantIds.has(opts.report.comparator)) {\n    throw new Error(`runEvalCampaign: report.comparator \"${opts.report.comparator}\" is not a configured variantId.`)\n  }\n  if (!opts.commitSha) {\n    throw new Error('runEvalCampaign: commitSha is required (every RunRecord needs it).')\n  }\n\n  const seeds = opts.seeds ?? [0, 1, 2]\n  const splitTag: RunSplitTag = opts.splitTag ?? 'holdout'\n  const concurrency = Math.max(1, opts.concurrency ?? 1)\n  const integrity = { ...DEFAULT_INTEGRITY, ...(opts.integrity ?? {}) }\n  const onIntegrityFailure: CampaignIntegrityPolicy = opts.onIntegrityFailure ?? 'mark_failed'\n  const now = opts.now ?? (() => Date.now())\n  const baseUrl = (opts.llmOpts.baseUrl ?? '').replace(/\\/+$/, '')\n  const provider = opts.llmOpts.provider ?? null\n  const preregistrationHash = opts.preregistrationHash ?? null\n\n  const rawSinkFactory = opts.rawSinkFactory ?? defaultRawSinkFactory(opts.workDir)\n\n  // ── Fingerprint ────────────────────────────────────────────────────\n  const campaignFingerprint = await hashJson(canonicalize({\n    campaignId: opts.campaignId,\n    variants: opts.variants.map((v) => v.id).sort(),\n    scenarios: opts.scenarios.map((s) => s.scenarioId).sort(),\n    seeds: [...seeds].sort((a, b) => a - b),\n    splitTag,\n    comparator: opts.report?.comparator ?? null,\n    baseUrl,\n    provider,\n    preregistrationHash,\n  }))\n\n  // ── Plan the matrix ────────────────────────────────────────────────\n  type Cell = { variant: CampaignVariant<V>; scenario: CampaignScenario; seed: number }\n  const cells: Cell[] = []\n  for (const variant of opts.variants) {\n    for (const scenario of opts.scenarios) {\n      for (const seed of seeds) {\n        cells.push({ variant, scenario, seed })\n      }\n    }\n  }\n\n  const startedAt = new Date(now()).toISOString()\n  const runs: RunRecord[] = []\n  const integrityReports: RunIntegrityReport[] = []\n  const failedRuns: FailedRun[] = []\n\n  // ── Execute (bounded-concurrency worker pool) ──────────────────────\n  let cursor = 0\n  async function worker(): Promise<void> {\n    while (true) {\n      const i = cursor++\n      if (i >= cells.length) return\n      const cell = cells[i]!\n      try {\n        const result = await runOneCell(cell)\n        runs.push(result.record)\n        integrityReports.push(result.integrity)\n      } catch (err) {\n        if (err instanceof CellExecutionError) {\n          failedRuns.push(err.failed)\n          if (err.integrity) integrityReports.push(err.integrity)\n        } else {\n          // Genuine bug — not a runner failure, not an integrity failure.\n          // Surface it; don't silently mask.\n          throw err\n        }\n      }\n    }\n  }\n\n  async function runOneCell(cell: Cell): Promise<{ record: RunRecord; integrity: RunIntegrityReport }> {\n    const runId = (opts.runId ?? defaultRunId)({\n      campaignId: opts.campaignId,\n      runId: '', // unused by default generator\n      variantId: cell.variant.id,\n      scenarioId: cell.scenario.scenarioId,\n      seed: cell.seed,\n    })\n    const factoryParams: CampaignFactoryParams = {\n      campaignId: opts.campaignId,\n      runId,\n      variantId: cell.variant.id,\n      scenarioId: cell.scenario.scenarioId,\n      seed: cell.seed,\n    }\n    const store = opts.storeFactory(factoryParams)\n    const rawSink = rawSinkFactory(factoryParams)\n\n    const emitter = new TraceEmitter(store, {\n      runId,\n      now: opts.now,\n      onRunComplete: opts.onRunComplete,\n    })\n\n    const llmOpts: LlmClientOptions = {\n      ...opts.llmOpts,\n      rawSink,\n      traceContext: { runId },\n    }\n\n    const ctx: CampaignRunContext<V> = {\n      runId,\n      experimentId: opts.campaignId,\n      variant: cell.variant.payload,\n      variantId: cell.variant.id,\n      scenarioId: cell.scenario.scenarioId,\n      scenarioTags: cell.scenario.tags ?? {},\n      seed: cell.seed,\n      splitTag,\n      emitter,\n      store,\n      rawSink,\n      llmOpts,\n    }\n\n    const wallStart = now()\n    let outcome: CampaignRunOutcome\n    try {\n      outcome = await opts.runner(ctx)\n    } catch (err) {\n      const message = err instanceof Error ? err.message : String(err)\n      // The runner threw mid-execution; give it a chance to have aborted.\n      try {\n        await emitter.abortRun(message)\n      } catch {\n        // Already aborted/ended; ignore.\n      }\n      throw new CellExecutionError({\n        runId,\n        variantId: cell.variant.id,\n        scenarioId: cell.scenario.scenarioId,\n        seed: cell.seed,\n        reason: 'runner_threw',\n        error: message,\n      })\n    }\n    const wallMs = now() - wallStart\n\n    const integrityReport = await assertRunCaptured(store, runId, { ...integrity, rawSink })\n    if (!integrityReport.ok) {\n      switch (onIntegrityFailure) {\n        case 'throw':\n          throw new RunIntegrityError(integrityReport)\n        case 'mark_failed':\n          throw new CellExecutionError(\n            {\n              runId,\n              variantId: cell.variant.id,\n              scenarioId: cell.scenario.scenarioId,\n              seed: cell.seed,\n              reason: 'integrity_failed',\n              error: integrityReport.issues.map((i) => i.code).join(', '),\n            },\n            integrityReport,\n          )\n        case 'log':\n          // Caller wants the run admitted with a flagged report; fall through.\n          break\n      }\n    }\n\n    const recordOutcome: RunOutcome = {\n      raw: outcome.raw ?? {},\n    }\n    if (splitTag === 'holdout') recordOutcome.holdoutScore = outcome.score\n    else recordOutcome.searchScore = outcome.score\n\n    const record: RunRecord = {\n      runId,\n      experimentId: opts.campaignId,\n      candidateId: cell.variant.id,\n      seed: cell.seed,\n      model: outcome.model,\n      promptHash: outcome.promptHash,\n      configHash: outcome.configHash,\n      commitSha: opts.commitSha,\n      wallMs,\n      costUsd: outcome.costUsd,\n      tokenUsage: outcome.tokenUsage,\n      judgeMetadata: outcome.judgeMetadata,\n      outcome: recordOutcome,\n      failureMode: outcome.failureMode,\n      splitTag,\n    }\n    return { record, integrity: integrityReport }\n  }\n\n  const workers = Array.from({ length: Math.min(concurrency, cells.length) }, () => worker())\n  await Promise.all(workers)\n\n  // ── Optional research report ───────────────────────────────────────\n  let report: ResearchReport | undefined\n  if (opts.report) {\n    const reportOpts: ResearchReportOptions = {\n      ...opts.report,\n      comparator: opts.report.comparator,\n      split: splitTag === 'dev' ? 'search' : splitTag,\n      generatedAt: new Date(now()).toISOString(),\n      preregistrationHash: preregistrationHash ?? undefined,\n    }\n    report = await researchReport(runs, reportOpts)\n  }\n\n  const endedAt = new Date(now()).toISOString()\n\n  return {\n    campaignId: opts.campaignId,\n    campaignFingerprint,\n    preregistrationHash,\n    runs,\n    integrityReports,\n    failedRuns,\n    report,\n    startedAt,\n    endedAt,\n  }\n}\n\n// ── Internal ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────\n\nclass CellExecutionError extends Error {\n  readonly failed: FailedRun\n  readonly integrity?: RunIntegrityReport\n  constructor(failed: FailedRun, integrity?: RunIntegrityReport) {\n    super(`cell ${failed.variantId}/${failed.scenarioId}@${failed.seed} failed: ${failed.reason}`)\n    this.failed = failed\n    this.integrity = integrity\n  }\n}\n\nfunction defaultRawSinkFactory(workDir: string | undefined) {\n  return (params: CampaignFactoryParams): RawProviderSink => {\n    if (!workDir) {\n      throw new Error(\n        'runEvalCampaign: rawSinkFactory not supplied and workDir not set. Pass either to enable raw provider capture, or pass `new NoopRawProviderSink()` via rawSinkFactory to opt out explicitly.',\n      )\n    }\n    return new FileSystemRawProviderSink({\n      dir: `${workDir}/raw-events/${params.runId}`,\n    })\n  }\n}\n\nfunction defaultRunId(params: CampaignFactoryParams): string {\n  // Stable across re-runs: fingerprint of (campaignId, variantId, scenarioId, seed).\n  // Caller can override via opts.runId for non-deterministic IDs.\n  const base = `${params.campaignId}::${params.variantId}::${params.scenarioId}::${params.seed}`\n  // Lightweight hex: we don't need crypto-grade here, just stability + uniqueness.\n  let h1 = 0x811c9dc5\n  let h2 = 0x12345678\n  for (let i = 0; i < base.length; i++) {\n    const c = base.charCodeAt(i)\n    h1 = Math.imul(h1 ^ c, 0x01000193) >>> 0\n    h2 = Math.imul(h2 ^ c, 0x9e3779b1) >>> 0\n  }\n  return `run-${h1.toString(16).padStart(8, '0')}${h2.toString(16).padStart(8, '0')}`\n}\n","/**\n * Multi-shot optimization adapter.\n *\n * This is the canonical bridge between variable-length agent trajectories\n * and `runPromptEvolution`. Apps provide four things:\n *\n *   - variants: prompt/config/tool-policy candidates\n *   - runner: executes one full task trajectory for a variant\n *   - scorer: turns that trajectory into score + actionable side information\n *   - mutator: proposes new variants from top/bottom scored trials\n *\n * The adapter owns the boring but easy-to-get-wrong glue: stable seeds,\n * score/cost objectives, error-to-trial conversion, ASI metric projection,\n * and optional paired holdout gating via `HeldOutGate`.\n */\n\nimport { HeldOutGate, type GateDecision, type HeldOutGateConfig } from './held-out-gate'\nimport {\n  runPromptEvolution,\n  type PromptEvolutionEvent,\n  type PromptEvolutionResult,\n  type EvolvableVariant,\n  type ScoreAdapter,\n  type TrialCache,\n  type TrialResult,\n  type VariantAggregate,\n} from './prompt-evolution'\nimport { type Objective } from './pareto'\nimport { type RunRecord, validateRunRecord, type RunSplitTag } from './run-record'\nimport { type TrialTrace } from './reflective-mutation'\n\nexport type MultiShotSplit = 'search' | 'dev' | 'holdout'\n\nexport type AsiSeverity = 'info' | 'warning' | 'error' | 'critical'\n\nexport type MultiShotVariant<P = unknown> = EvolvableVariant<P>\n\nexport interface ActionableSideInfo {\n  /** Stable expectation/check id when available. */\n  expectationId?: string\n  /** Human-readable diagnosis of what happened. */\n  message: string\n  severity?: AsiSeverity\n  /** Concrete trace excerpt, file path, tool call, screenshot id, etc. */\n  evidence?: string\n  /** Prompt/tool/context surface likely responsible. */\n  responsibleSurface?: string\n  /** Suggested fix in natural language. */\n  suggestion?: string\n  /** Whether this expectation was satisfied. Defaults to false for ASI rows. */\n  matched?: boolean\n  metadata?: Record<string, unknown>\n}\n\nexport interface MultiShotTrace {\n  scenarioId: string\n  /** Full turn/tool trace. Shape is intentionally app-owned. */\n  turns?: unknown[]\n  toolCalls?: unknown[]\n  artifacts?: unknown[]\n  /** Compact final output or summary used by reflection prompts. */\n  transcript?: string\n  output?: unknown\n  metadata?: Record<string, unknown>\n}\n\nexport interface MultiShotRun {\n  trace: MultiShotTrace\n  costUsd?: number\n  durationMs?: number\n  tokenUsage?: { input?: number; output?: number; cached?: number }\n  metadata?: Record<string, unknown>\n}\n\nexport interface MultiShotRunInput<P = unknown> {\n  variant: EvolvableVariant<P>\n  scenarioId: string\n  rep: number\n  split: MultiShotSplit\n  /** Stable paired seed for baseline/candidate comparisons. */\n  seed: number\n}\n\nexport interface MultiShotRunner<P = unknown> {\n  run(input: MultiShotRunInput<P>): Promise<MultiShotRun> | MultiShotRun\n}\n\nexport interface MultiShotScore {\n  /** Primary score in [0,1]. The adapter clamps for safety. */\n  score: number\n  /** Pass/fail for top/bottom trial selection. Defaults to true. */\n  ok?: boolean\n  costUsd?: number\n  durationMs?: number\n  metrics?: Record<string, number>\n  asi?: ActionableSideInfo[]\n  /** Optional rich output shown to reflection mutators. */\n  emitted?: string\n  metadata?: Record<string, unknown>\n}\n\nexport interface MultiShotScorer<P = unknown> {\n  score(input: MultiShotRunInput<P> & { run: MultiShotRun }): Promise<MultiShotScore> | MultiShotScore\n}\n\nexport interface MultiShotTrialResult extends TrialResult {\n  split: MultiShotSplit\n  seed: number\n  trace?: MultiShotTrace\n  asi?: ActionableSideInfo[]\n  emitted?: string\n  metadata?: Record<string, unknown>\n}\n\nexport interface MultiShotMutateAdapter<P = unknown> {\n  mutate(args: {\n    parent: EvolvableVariant<P>\n    parentAggregate: VariantAggregate\n    topTrials: MultiShotTrialResult[]\n    bottomTrials: MultiShotTrialResult[]\n    childCount: number\n    generation: number\n  }): Promise<EvolvableVariant<P>[]>\n}\n\nexport interface MultiShotGateConfig<P = unknown> {\n  /** Search rows are optional, but enable HeldOutGate's overfit-gap check. */\n  searchScenarioIds?: string[]\n  holdoutScenarioIds: string[]\n  reps?: number\n  gate: HeldOutGateConfig\n  /** Convert scored trajectory runs into paper-grade RunRecords. */\n  toRunRecord(input: {\n    variant: EvolvableVariant<P>\n    scenarioId: string\n    rep: number\n    split: RunSplitTag\n    seed: number\n    trial: MultiShotTrialResult\n  }): RunRecord\n}\n\nexport interface MultiShotOptimizationConfig<P = unknown> {\n  runId: string\n  target: string\n  seedVariants: EvolvableVariant<P>[]\n  searchScenarioIds: string[]\n  reps: number\n  generations: number\n  populationSize: number\n  scoreConcurrency?: number\n  runner: MultiShotRunner<P>\n  scorer: MultiShotScorer<P>\n  mutateAdapter: MultiShotMutateAdapter<P>\n  objectives?: Objective<VariantAggregate>[]\n  scalarWeights?: Record<string, number>\n  cache?: TrialCache\n  earlyStopOnNoImprovement?: boolean\n  seedBase?: number\n  onProgress?: (event: PromptEvolutionEvent) => void\n  gate?: MultiShotGateConfig<P>\n}\n\nexport interface MultiShotGateResult {\n  decision: GateDecision\n  candidateRuns: RunRecord[]\n  baselineRuns: RunRecord[]\n}\n\nexport interface MultiShotOptimizationResult<P = unknown> {\n  evolution: PromptEvolutionResult<P>\n  /** Best candidate on the optimizer-visible search split. */\n  searchBestVariant: EvolvableVariant<P>\n  searchBestAggregate: VariantAggregate\n  /** Variant callers should actually ship after optional holdout gating. */\n  promotedVariant: EvolvableVariant<P>\n  promotedAggregate: VariantAggregate\n  /** Null when no gate was configured or the search-best candidate was the baseline. */\n  gate: MultiShotGateResult | null\n}\n\nexport async function runMultiShotOptimization<P>(\n  config: MultiShotOptimizationConfig<P>,\n): Promise<MultiShotOptimizationResult<P>> {\n  validateConfig(config)\n\n  const scoreAdapter: ScoreAdapter<P> = {\n    score: (args) => scoreOne(config, args.variant, args.scenarioId, args.rep, 'search'),\n  }\n\n  const evolution = await runPromptEvolution<P>({\n    runId: config.runId,\n    target: config.target,\n    seedVariants: config.seedVariants,\n    scenarioIds: config.searchScenarioIds,\n    reps: config.reps,\n    generations: config.generations,\n    populationSize: config.populationSize,\n    scoreConcurrency: config.scoreConcurrency ?? 1,\n    scoreAdapter,\n    mutateAdapter: {\n      mutate: (args) => config.mutateAdapter.mutate({\n        ...args,\n        topTrials: args.topTrials as MultiShotTrialResult[],\n        bottomTrials: args.bottomTrials as MultiShotTrialResult[],\n      }),\n    },\n    objectives: config.objectives ?? defaultMultiShotObjectives(),\n    scalarWeights: config.scalarWeights,\n    earlyStopOnNoImprovement: config.earlyStopOnNoImprovement,\n    cache: config.cache,\n    onProgress: config.onProgress,\n  })\n\n  let gate: MultiShotGateResult | null = null\n  const baseline = config.seedVariants[0]!\n  let promotedVariant = evolution.bestVariant\n  let promotedAggregate = evolution.bestAggregate\n  if (config.gate && evolution.bestVariant.id !== baseline.id) {\n    gate = await evaluateMultiShotGate(config, baseline, evolution.bestVariant)\n    if (!gate.decision.promote) {\n      promotedVariant = baseline\n      promotedAggregate = aggregateFor(evolution, baseline.id)\n    }\n  }\n\n  return {\n    evolution,\n    searchBestVariant: evolution.bestVariant,\n    searchBestAggregate: evolution.bestAggregate,\n    promotedVariant,\n    promotedAggregate,\n    gate,\n  }\n}\n\nexport function defaultMultiShotObjectives(): Objective<VariantAggregate>[] {\n  return [\n    { name: 'score', direction: 'maximize', value: (a) => a.meanScore },\n    { name: 'cost', direction: 'minimize', value: (a) => a.meanCost },\n  ]\n}\n\nexport function trialTraceFromMultiShotTrial(trial: MultiShotTrialResult): TrialTrace {\n  return {\n    id: `${trial.variantId}/${trial.scenarioId}/r${trial.rep}`,\n    score: trial.score,\n    inputName: trial.scenarioId,\n    expectations: (trial.asi ?? []).map((item, i) => ({\n      id: item.expectationId ?? `asi-${i}`,\n      phrase: item.message,\n      matched: item.matched ?? false,\n    })),\n    emitted: trial.emitted ?? traceExcerpt(trial.trace),\n    metrics: trial.metrics,\n  }\n}\n\nasync function evaluateMultiShotGate<P>(\n  config: MultiShotOptimizationConfig<P>,\n  baseline: EvolvableVariant<P>,\n  candidate: EvolvableVariant<P>,\n): Promise<MultiShotGateResult> {\n  const gateConfig = config.gate!\n  const reps = gateConfig.reps ?? config.reps\n  const candidateRuns: RunRecord[] = []\n  const baselineRuns: RunRecord[] = []\n\n  const searchIds = gateConfig.searchScenarioIds ?? config.searchScenarioIds\n  for (const scenarioId of searchIds) {\n    for (let rep = 0; rep < reps; rep++) {\n      const seed = seedFor(config, scenarioId, rep)\n      const baseTrial = await scoreOne(config, baseline, scenarioId, rep, 'search')\n      const candTrial = await scoreOne(config, candidate, scenarioId, rep, 'search')\n      baselineRuns.push(toValidatedRecord(config, baseline, scenarioId, rep, 'search', seed, baseTrial))\n      candidateRuns.push(toValidatedRecord(config, candidate, scenarioId, rep, 'search', seed, candTrial))\n    }\n  }\n\n  for (const scenarioId of gateConfig.holdoutScenarioIds) {\n    for (let rep = 0; rep < reps; rep++) {\n      const seed = seedFor(config, scenarioId, rep)\n      const baseTrial = await scoreOne(config, baseline, scenarioId, rep, 'holdout')\n      const candTrial = await scoreOne(config, candidate, scenarioId, rep, 'holdout')\n      baselineRuns.push(toValidatedRecord(config, baseline, scenarioId, rep, 'holdout', seed, baseTrial))\n      candidateRuns.push(toValidatedRecord(config, candidate, scenarioId, rep, 'holdout', seed, candTrial))\n    }\n  }\n\n  const decision = new HeldOutGate(gateConfig.gate).evaluate(candidateRuns, baselineRuns)\n  return { decision, candidateRuns, baselineRuns }\n}\n\nasync function scoreOne<P>(\n  config: MultiShotOptimizationConfig<P>,\n  variant: EvolvableVariant<P>,\n  scenarioId: string,\n  rep: number,\n  split: MultiShotSplit,\n): Promise<MultiShotTrialResult> {\n  const seed = seedFor(config, scenarioId, rep)\n  const input: MultiShotRunInput<P> = { variant, scenarioId, rep, split, seed }\n  try {\n    const run = await config.runner.run(input)\n    const scored = await config.scorer.score({ ...input, run })\n    const asi = scored.asi ?? []\n    return {\n      variantId: variant.id,\n      scenarioId,\n      rep,\n      ok: scored.ok ?? true,\n      score: clamp01(scored.score),\n      cost: scored.costUsd ?? run.costUsd ?? 0,\n      durationMs: scored.durationMs ?? run.durationMs ?? 0,\n      metrics: {\n        ...numericMetrics(scored.metrics),\n        ...asiMetrics(asi),\n      },\n      split,\n      seed,\n      trace: run.trace,\n      asi,\n      emitted: scored.emitted ?? traceExcerpt(run.trace),\n      metadata: scored.metadata,\n    }\n  } catch (err) {\n    return {\n      variantId: variant.id,\n      scenarioId,\n      rep,\n      ok: false,\n      score: 0,\n      cost: 0,\n      durationMs: 0,\n      metrics: { error: 1 },\n      error: err instanceof Error ? err.message : String(err),\n      split,\n      seed,\n      asi: [{\n        severity: 'critical',\n        message: err instanceof Error ? err.message : String(err),\n        responsibleSurface: config.target,\n      }],\n      emitted: '',\n    }\n  }\n}\n\nfunction toValidatedRecord<P>(\n  config: MultiShotOptimizationConfig<P>,\n  variant: EvolvableVariant<P>,\n  scenarioId: string,\n  rep: number,\n  split: RunSplitTag,\n  seed: number,\n  trial: MultiShotTrialResult,\n): RunRecord {\n  const record = config.gate!.toRunRecord({ variant, scenarioId, rep, split, seed, trial })\n  return validateRunRecord(record)\n}\n\nfunction validateConfig<P>(config: MultiShotOptimizationConfig<P>): void {\n  if (!config.runId.trim()) throw new Error('runMultiShotOptimization: runId must not be empty')\n  if (!config.target.trim()) throw new Error('runMultiShotOptimization: target must not be empty')\n  if (config.seedVariants.length === 0) {\n    throw new Error('runMultiShotOptimization: seedVariants must not be empty')\n  }\n  if (config.searchScenarioIds.length === 0) {\n    throw new Error('runMultiShotOptimization: searchScenarioIds must not be empty')\n  }\n  requirePositiveInteger(config.reps, 'reps')\n  requirePositiveInteger(config.generations, 'generations')\n  requirePositiveInteger(config.populationSize, 'populationSize')\n  if (config.scoreConcurrency !== undefined) requirePositiveInteger(config.scoreConcurrency, 'scoreConcurrency')\n  if (config.populationSize < config.seedVariants.length) {\n    throw new Error('runMultiShotOptimization: populationSize must be >= seedVariants.length')\n  }\n  assertUnique(config.seedVariants.map((v) => v.id), 'seedVariants.id')\n  assertUnique(config.searchScenarioIds, 'searchScenarioIds')\n\n  if (config.gate) {\n    if (config.gate.holdoutScenarioIds.length === 0) {\n      throw new Error('runMultiShotOptimization: gate.holdoutScenarioIds must not be empty')\n    }\n    if (config.gate.reps !== undefined) requirePositiveInteger(config.gate.reps, 'gate.reps')\n    assertUnique(config.gate.holdoutScenarioIds, 'gate.holdoutScenarioIds')\n    if (config.gate.searchScenarioIds) assertUnique(config.gate.searchScenarioIds, 'gate.searchScenarioIds')\n    const searchIds = new Set(config.searchScenarioIds)\n    for (const id of config.gate.holdoutScenarioIds) {\n      if (searchIds.has(id)) {\n        throw new Error(`runMultiShotOptimization: holdout scenario \"${id}\" also appears in searchScenarioIds`)\n      }\n    }\n    const baselineId = config.seedVariants[0]!.id\n    if (config.gate.gate.baselineKey !== baselineId) {\n      throw new Error(\n        `runMultiShotOptimization: gate.gate.baselineKey must match first seed variant id \"${baselineId}\"`,\n      )\n    }\n  }\n}\n\nfunction requirePositiveInteger(value: number, name: string): void {\n  if (!Number.isInteger(value) || value <= 0) {\n    throw new Error(`runMultiShotOptimization: ${name} must be a positive integer`)\n  }\n}\n\nfunction assertUnique(values: string[], name: string): void {\n  const seen = new Set<string>()\n  for (const value of values) {\n    if (!value.trim()) throw new Error(`runMultiShotOptimization: ${name} must not contain empty values`)\n    if (seen.has(value)) throw new Error(`runMultiShotOptimization: duplicate ${name} \"${value}\"`)\n    seen.add(value)\n  }\n}\n\nfunction aggregateFor<P>(evolution: PromptEvolutionResult<P>, variantId: string): VariantAggregate {\n  const final = evolution.generations[evolution.generations.length - 1]\n  const aggregate = final?.aggregates.find((a) => a.variantId === variantId)\n  if (!aggregate) {\n    throw new Error(`runMultiShotOptimization: missing aggregate for variant \"${variantId}\"`)\n  }\n  return aggregate\n}\n\nfunction seedFor<P>(config: MultiShotOptimizationConfig<P>, scenarioId: string, rep: number): number {\n  const base = config.seedBase ?? 0\n  return (base + stableHash(`${scenarioId}\\x1f${rep}`)) % Number.MAX_SAFE_INTEGER\n}\n\nfunction stableHash(input: string): number {\n  let h = 2166136261\n  for (let i = 0; i < input.length; i++) {\n    h ^= input.charCodeAt(i)\n    h = Math.imul(h, 16777619)\n  }\n  return h >>> 0\n}\n\nfunction clamp01(n: number): number {\n  if (!Number.isFinite(n)) return 0\n  return Math.max(0, Math.min(1, n))\n}\n\nfunction numericMetrics(metrics: Record<string, number> | undefined): Record<string, number> {\n  const out: Record<string, number> = {}\n  for (const [k, v] of Object.entries(metrics ?? {})) {\n    if (Number.isFinite(v)) out[k] = v\n  }\n  return out\n}\n\nfunction asiMetrics(asi: ActionableSideInfo[]): Record<string, number> {\n  const out: Record<string, number> = { asi: asi.length }\n  for (const item of asi.slice(0, 1000)) {\n    const sev = normalizeSeverity(item.severity)\n    out[`asi.${sev}`] = (out[`asi.${sev}`] ?? 0) + 1\n    if (item.responsibleSurface) {\n      const key = `surface.${metricKeySegment(item.responsibleSurface)}`\n      out[key] = (out[key] ?? 0) + 1\n    }\n  }\n  return out\n}\n\nfunction normalizeSeverity(severity: AsiSeverity | undefined): AsiSeverity {\n  if (severity === 'info' || severity === 'warning' || severity === 'error' || severity === 'critical') {\n    return severity\n  }\n  return 'error'\n}\n\nfunction metricKeySegment(raw: string): string {\n  return raw.trim().replace(/[^a-zA-Z0-9._-]+/g, '_').slice(0, 80) || 'unknown'\n}\n\nfunction traceExcerpt(trace: MultiShotTrace | undefined): string | undefined {\n  if (!trace) return undefined\n  if (typeof trace.output === 'string') return trace.output\n  if (trace.transcript) return trace.transcript\n  if (trace.turns) {\n    try {\n      const clipped = trace.turns.slice(0, 20)\n      const suffix = trace.turns.length > clipped.length ? ` ... ${trace.turns.length - clipped.length} more turn(s)` : ''\n      return `${JSON.stringify(clipped).slice(0, 2000)}${suffix}`\n    } catch {\n      return '[unserializable trace turns]'\n    }\n  }\n  return undefined\n}\n","/**\n * Reflective mutation — primitives for trace-conditioned prompt rewriting.\n *\n * Used by `prompt-evolution.ts` (and any consumer running iterative\n * improvement). Given a parent prompt + concrete trace evidence (top trials,\n * bottom trials, missed expectations), produce an LLM-ready prompt that\n * proposes targeted mutations — not blind rephrasings.\n *\n * Why this lives outside `prompt-evolution.ts`: any consumer that wants to\n * run reflective rewriting WITHOUT the population/Pareto machinery can\n * import these primitives directly.\n *\n * Quality bar (vs. naive \"mutate this prompt\"):\n *   - Show parent ↔ children diff, not just one variant\n *   - Quote specific missed goldens with their match phrases\n *   - Surface the model's actual emitted output side-by-side with what was expected\n *   - Quote concrete mutation primitives so the model has a vocabulary\n */\n\nexport interface TrialTrace {\n  /** Stable id for the trial — surfaces in the prompt for grounding. */\n  id: string\n  /** Score the trial received on its primary metric. */\n  score: number\n  /** Candidate inputs the agent was given (e.g., the fixture or scenario). */\n  inputName?: string\n  /**\n   * Goldens / expectations this trial was tested against, with whether each\n   * was matched. The reflection prompt quotes the missed ones specifically.\n   */\n  expectations?: Array<{ id: string; phrase: string; matched: boolean }>\n  /** Free-form text — what the agent actually emitted (e.g., findings, plan). */\n  emitted?: string\n  /** Optional structured metrics (recall, precision, cost, latency). */\n  metrics?: Record<string, number>\n}\n\nexport interface ReflectionContext {\n  /** What is being mutated — appears in the system prompt for orientation. */\n  target: string\n  /** Current variant's payload — JSON-serialised for the prompt. */\n  parentPayload: unknown\n  /** Best-performing trials this generation. */\n  topTrials: TrialTrace[]\n  /** Worst-performing trials this generation — the missed-golden source. */\n  bottomTrials: TrialTrace[]\n  /** How many children the mutator should propose. */\n  childCount: number\n  /** Optional: domain-specific mutation primitives the model can pick from. */\n  mutationPrimitives?: string[]\n}\n\nexport const DEFAULT_MUTATION_PRIMITIVES: string[] = [\n  'Strengthen an imperative (\"should\" → \"must\")',\n  'Add a concrete example pulled from a missed-golden phrase',\n  'Remove a redundant rule that did not improve recall',\n  'Add a counterfactual (\"if X is missing, the score is capped at Y\")',\n  'Reorder sections so the highest-impact rule is first',\n  'Replace abstract language with a domain-specific noun the trial misses',\n]\n\n/**\n * Build the LLM-ready reflection prompt. Output is plain text — pass it as\n * the user message. The system message should be small and stable (e.g.\n * \"Output ONLY a JSON object matching the schema below.\").\n */\nexport function buildReflectionPrompt(ctx: ReflectionContext): string {\n  const primitives = ctx.mutationPrimitives ?? DEFAULT_MUTATION_PRIMITIVES\n  const sections: string[] = []\n\n  sections.push(`# Mutation target: ${ctx.target}`)\n  sections.push('')\n  sections.push(`You are tuning the prompt component named \\`${ctx.target}\\`. The current variant is shown below; you have ${ctx.topTrials.length} top trials and ${ctx.bottomTrials.length} bottom trials as evidence. Propose ${ctx.childCount} mutation${ctx.childCount === 1 ? '' : 's'} that fix specific weaknesses visible in the bottom trials. Avoid blank rephrasings.`)\n  sections.push('')\n\n  sections.push('## Current variant')\n  sections.push('```json')\n  sections.push(JSON.stringify(ctx.parentPayload, null, 2))\n  sections.push('```')\n  sections.push('')\n\n  if (ctx.bottomTrials.length > 0) {\n    sections.push('## Failures (bottom trials) — what went wrong')\n    sections.push('')\n    for (const trial of ctx.bottomTrials) {\n      sections.push(`### Trial \\`${trial.id}\\` — score ${trial.score.toFixed(2)}${trial.inputName ? ` (${trial.inputName})` : ''}`)\n      const missed = (trial.expectations ?? []).filter((e) => !e.matched)\n      if (missed.length > 0) {\n        sections.push('')\n        sections.push('**Missed expectations:**')\n        for (const m of missed) {\n          sections.push(`- \\`${m.id}\\`: should match phrase \\`${quote(m.phrase)}\\``)\n        }\n      }\n      if (trial.emitted) {\n        sections.push('')\n        sections.push('**What the agent emitted:**')\n        sections.push('```')\n        sections.push(truncate(trial.emitted, 600))\n        sections.push('```')\n      }\n      sections.push('')\n    }\n  }\n\n  if (ctx.topTrials.length > 0) {\n    sections.push('## Successes (top trials) — what to preserve')\n    sections.push('')\n    for (const trial of ctx.topTrials) {\n      sections.push(`- \\`${trial.id}\\`: score ${trial.score.toFixed(2)}${trial.inputName ? ` (${trial.inputName})` : ''}`)\n    }\n    sections.push('')\n  }\n\n  sections.push('## Allowed mutation primitives')\n  sections.push('')\n  for (const p of primitives) sections.push(`- ${p}`)\n  sections.push('')\n\n  sections.push('## Output schema')\n  sections.push('')\n  sections.push('Respond with a JSON object — no prose, no markdown fences:')\n  sections.push('```json')\n  sections.push(JSON.stringify(\n    {\n      proposals: [\n        {\n          label: '<short label, ≤ 40 chars>',\n          rationale: '<which failure this targets and which primitive you used>',\n          payload: '<full payload of the new variant — same shape as the current variant>',\n        },\n      ],\n    },\n    null,\n    2,\n  ))\n  sections.push('```')\n\n  return sections.join('\\n')\n}\n\nfunction truncate(s: string, max: number): string {\n  if (s.length <= max) return s\n  return s.slice(0, max) + '… [truncated]'\n}\n\nfunction quote(s: string): string {\n  return s.replace(/`/g, '\\\\`')\n}\n\nexport interface ReflectionProposal {\n  label: string\n  rationale: string\n  payload: unknown\n}\n\n/**\n * Parse the model's JSON response back into proposals. Tolerates markdown\n * fences and surrounding prose. Returns at most `maxProposals`.\n */\n/**\n * Walk the input as JSON-aware (string vs not, escape-aware) and close\n * unclosed `{` / `[` in LIFO order at the tail. If the input was already\n * balanced returns it unchanged. If a string was open at end-of-input we\n * also close it with `\"` first, since a truncated string-mid-value is the\n * most common LLM cap-hit failure mode and JSON.parse cannot proceed\n * without one.\n *\n * Returns null when the structure is unrecoverable (e.g. depth would go\n * negative — that's an *over*-closed prefix, not a truncation).\n */\nfunction autoCloseTruncatedJson(raw: string): string | null {\n  const stack: Array<'{' | '['> = []\n  let inString = false\n  let escape = false\n  for (const c of raw) {\n    if (escape) {\n      escape = false\n      continue\n    }\n    if (inString) {\n      if (c === '\\\\') { escape = true; continue }\n      if (c === '\"') { inString = false; continue }\n      continue\n    }\n    if (c === '\"') { inString = true; continue }\n    if (c === '{' || c === '[') stack.push(c)\n    else if (c === '}') {\n      if (stack.pop() !== '{') return null\n    } else if (c === ']') {\n      if (stack.pop() !== '[') return null\n    }\n  }\n  if (stack.length === 0 && !inString) return raw\n  let suffix = ''\n  if (inString) suffix += '\"'\n  while (stack.length > 0) {\n    const opener = stack.pop()!\n    suffix += opener === '{' ? '}' : ']'\n  }\n  return raw + suffix\n}\n\nexport function parseReflectionResponse(raw: string, maxProposals?: number): ReflectionProposal[] {\n  let text = raw.trim()\n  if (text.startsWith('```')) text = text.replace(/^```(?:json)?\\n?/, '').replace(/\\n?```$/, '')\n\n  // Try to parse as either a JSON object `{proposals: [...]}` or a bare\n  // array `[...]`. LLMs frequently emit one or the other depending on how\n  // they read the schema example; accept both.\n  let parsed: unknown = null\n  const objectStart = text.indexOf('{')\n  const objectEnd = text.lastIndexOf('}')\n  const arrayStart = text.indexOf('[')\n  const arrayEnd = text.lastIndexOf(']')\n  // Prefer whichever delimiter comes first (the model committed to that shape).\n  const tryObjectFirst = objectStart >= 0 && (arrayStart < 0 || objectStart < arrayStart)\n  const candidates: string[] = []\n  if (tryObjectFirst) {\n    if (objectStart >= 0 && objectEnd > objectStart) candidates.push(text.slice(objectStart, objectEnd + 1))\n    if (arrayStart >= 0 && arrayEnd > arrayStart) candidates.push(text.slice(arrayStart, arrayEnd + 1))\n  } else {\n    if (arrayStart >= 0 && arrayEnd > arrayStart) candidates.push(text.slice(arrayStart, arrayEnd + 1))\n    if (objectStart >= 0 && objectEnd > objectStart) candidates.push(text.slice(objectStart, objectEnd + 1))\n  }\n  for (const slice of candidates) {\n    try {\n      parsed = JSON.parse(slice)\n      break\n    } catch {\n      // try next\n    }\n  }\n\n  // Truncation-tolerant fallback: LLMs frequently hit a max_tokens cap\n  // mid-emission, leaving N unclosed `}` / `]` at the tail. Close them in\n  // order from the deepest unclosed structure outward, by walking the\n  // candidate slice and tracking depth, then retrying JSON.parse. This\n  // recovers any complete proposals before the cutoff and drops the rest.\n  if (parsed == null) {\n    for (const slice of candidates) {\n      const closed = autoCloseTruncatedJson(slice)\n      if (closed != null && closed !== slice) {\n        try {\n          parsed = JSON.parse(closed)\n          break\n        } catch {\n          // give up on this candidate\n        }\n      }\n    }\n  }\n\n  if (parsed == null) return []\n\n  // Normalize: accept `{proposals: [...]}` or a bare array.\n  let proposalsRaw: unknown\n  if (Array.isArray(parsed)) {\n    proposalsRaw = parsed\n  } else if (parsed && typeof parsed === 'object') {\n    proposalsRaw = (parsed as { proposals?: unknown }).proposals\n  }\n  if (!Array.isArray(proposalsRaw)) return []\n\n  const out: ReflectionProposal[] = []\n  for (const p of proposalsRaw) {\n    if (!p || typeof p !== 'object') continue\n    const obj = p as { label?: unknown; rationale?: unknown; payload?: unknown }\n    if (!('payload' in 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package/dist/chunk-YUFXO3TU.js.map

@@ -1 +0,0 @@
-{"version":3,"sources":["../src/run-record.ts"],"sourcesContent":["/**\n * Paper-grade RunRecord schema + runtime validator.\n *\n * Every run that participates in a promotion gate, paper table, or\n * researcher loop SHOULD be recorded as a `RunRecord`. The mandatory\n * fields are exactly those the paper \"Two Loops, Three Roles\" requires\n * for reproducibility: who/what/when/cost/seed/hash, plus the search vs\n * holdout split tag and either a `searchScore` or a `holdoutScore`.\n *\n * This is intentionally NOT a replacement for the rich `Run` /\n * `ProposeReviewReport` / `ScenarioResult` types already in the\n * package. Those are runtime structures with full provenance. A\n * `RunRecord` is the analysis-time projection — the JSON-friendly\n * row you'd put in a parquet file or paste into a notebook.\n *\n * Validate at the boundary:\n *\n *   const rec = validateRunRecord(rawJson)         // throws on missing\n *   const ok  = isRunRecord(rawJson)               // boolean check\n *   const rec = parseRunRecordSafe(rawJson)        // { ok, value | error }\n *\n * The validator runs in pure TS — zod is intentionally NOT a\n * dependency. Round-trip tested in `tests/run-record.test.ts`.\n */\n\n/** Search/dev/holdout split tag. 'search' is the paper-grade alias for the\n *  combined train+test pool that the optimizer is allowed to read. */\nexport type RunSplitTag = 'search' | 'dev' | 'holdout'\n\nexport interface RunTokenUsage {\n  input: number\n  output: number\n  cached?: number\n}\n\nexport interface RunJudgeMetadata {\n  model: string\n  promptVersion: string\n  /** [0,1] confidence the judge declared. Constant judge confidence\n   *  across many runs is a fallback signal (see `canary.ts`). */\n  confidence: number\n  /** True if the judge degraded to a fallback path (rules-only,\n   *  prior-call cache, etc.). The canary uses this to alert. */\n  fallback: boolean\n}\n\nexport interface RunOutcome {\n  /** Score on the search/optimization split. Optional because a\n   *  holdout-only evaluation only fills `holdoutScore`. */\n  searchScore?: number\n  /** Score on the held-out split. Optional because a search-only run\n   *  only fills `searchScore`. At least one must be present. */\n  holdoutScore?: number\n  /** Bag of any other metric the run produced — judge dimensions,\n   *  pass/fail counters, latency stats, etc. Numeric only — keeps\n   *  reporters honest. */\n  raw: Record<string, number>\n}\n\n/**\n * Mandatory paper-grade fields for a single evaluation run. Optional\n * fields are extension points; mandatory fields throw if missing.\n *\n * Hash discipline:\n *   - `promptHash` is the sha256 of the EFFECTIVE prompt sent to the\n *     model (after any steering bundle merge).\n *   - `configHash` is the sha256 of the effective run config (model,\n *     temperature, tools, judges, splits). The pair (promptHash,\n *     configHash) uniquely identifies an experimental cell.\n *\n * Model snapshot discipline:\n *   - `model` MUST encode a snapshot version. Bare aliases like\n *     `claude-sonnet-4` or `gpt-4o` are banned — they remap silently.\n *     Use `claude-sonnet-4-6@2025-04-15` or `gpt-4o-2024-11-20`.\n */\nexport interface RunRecord {\n  /** UUID for the run. */\n  runId: string\n  /** Logical experiment grouping (a treatment vs a baseline within\n   *  the same sweep should share `experimentId`). */\n  experimentId: string\n  /** Stable identifier for the candidate (variant) being run. The\n   *  promotion gate compares two `candidateId`s on matched items. */\n  candidateId: string\n  /** RNG seed for the run. Always recorded — silent re-seeding is\n   *  the most common cause of non-reproducible numbers. */\n  seed: number\n  /** Model identifier WITH snapshot version. */\n  model: string\n  /** sha256 of the effective prompt (post-steering). */\n  promptHash: string\n  /** sha256 of the effective config. */\n  configHash: string\n  /** Git SHA the harness was run from. */\n  commitSha: string\n  /** End-to-end wall-clock duration in milliseconds. */\n  wallMs: number\n  /** Time spent queued before execution started, if known. */\n  queueMs?: number\n  /** Total USD cost. Mandatory — runs without a cost number are\n   *  unbounded by definition and must not be admitted into the gate. */\n  costUsd: number\n  /** Token usage breakdown. */\n  tokenUsage: RunTokenUsage\n  /** Judge-side metadata, if a judge was used. */\n  judgeMetadata?: RunJudgeMetadata\n  /** Per-split scores + raw bag. */\n  outcome: RunOutcome\n  /** Categorical failure tag, when the run failed and the harness\n   *  classified it. Free-form string; standard tags live in\n   *  `failure-taxonomy.ts`. */\n  failureMode?: string\n  /** Which split this run was drawn from. */\n  splitTag: RunSplitTag\n}\n\n// ── Validation ───────────────────────────────────────────────────────\n\nconst MANDATORY_TOP_LEVEL = [\n  'runId',\n  'experimentId',\n  'candidateId',\n  'seed',\n  'model',\n  'promptHash',\n  'configHash',\n  'commitSha',\n  'wallMs',\n  'costUsd',\n  'tokenUsage',\n  'outcome',\n  'splitTag',\n] as const\n\nconst SPLIT_TAGS: ReadonlyArray<RunSplitTag> = ['search', 'dev', 'holdout']\n\nexport class RunRecordValidationError extends Error {\n  readonly path: string\n  constructor(message: string, path = '') {\n    super(path ? `${message} (at ${path})` : message)\n    this.name = 'RunRecordValidationError'\n    this.path = path\n  }\n}\n\n/**\n * Strict validator. Throws `RunRecordValidationError` on the first\n * missing or wrongly-typed field. Returns the input cast to\n * `RunRecord` on success — the validator does not coerce.\n */\nexport function validateRunRecord(input: unknown): RunRecord {\n  if (input === null || typeof input !== 'object') {\n    throw new RunRecordValidationError('expected object')\n  }\n  const obj = input as Record<string, unknown>\n\n  for (const key of MANDATORY_TOP_LEVEL) {\n    if (!(key in obj)) {\n      throw new RunRecordValidationError(`missing mandatory field \"${key}\"`)\n    }\n  }\n\n  expectString(obj.runId, 'runId')\n  expectString(obj.experimentId, 'experimentId')\n  expectString(obj.candidateId, 'candidateId')\n  expectFiniteNumber(obj.seed, 'seed')\n  expectString(obj.model, 'model')\n  expectString(obj.promptHash, 'promptHash')\n  expectString(obj.configHash, 'configHash')\n  expectString(obj.commitSha, 'commitSha')\n  expectFiniteNumber(obj.wallMs, 'wallMs')\n  if (obj.queueMs !== undefined) expectFiniteNumber(obj.queueMs, 'queueMs')\n  expectFiniteNumber(obj.costUsd, 'costUsd')\n\n  // Snapshot discipline: bare model aliases are not paper-grade.\n  if (!modelHasSnapshot(obj.model as string)) {\n    throw new RunRecordValidationError(\n      `model \"${obj.model}\" lacks a snapshot version (use 'name@YYYY-MM-DD' or 'name-YYYYMMDD')`,\n      'model',\n    )\n  }\n\n  // Token usage.\n  const tu = obj.tokenUsage\n  if (tu === null || typeof tu !== 'object') {\n    throw new RunRecordValidationError('tokenUsage must be an object', 'tokenUsage')\n  }\n  const tuRec = tu as Record<string, unknown>\n  expectFiniteNumber(tuRec.input, 'tokenUsage.input')\n  expectFiniteNumber(tuRec.output, 'tokenUsage.output')\n  if (tuRec.cached !== undefined) expectFiniteNumber(tuRec.cached, 'tokenUsage.cached')\n\n  // Judge metadata, optional.\n  if (obj.judgeMetadata !== undefined) {\n    const jm = obj.judgeMetadata\n    if (jm === null || typeof jm !== 'object') {\n      throw new RunRecordValidationError('judgeMetadata must be an object', 'judgeMetadata')\n    }\n    const jmRec = jm as Record<string, unknown>\n    expectString(jmRec.model, 'judgeMetadata.model')\n    expectString(jmRec.promptVersion, 'judgeMetadata.promptVersion')\n    expectFiniteNumber(jmRec.confidence, 'judgeMetadata.confidence')\n    if (typeof jmRec.fallback !== 'boolean') {\n      throw new RunRecordValidationError('judgeMetadata.fallback must be boolean', 'judgeMetadata.fallback')\n    }\n  }\n\n  // Outcome.\n  const out = obj.outcome\n  if (out === null || typeof out !== 'object') {\n    throw new RunRecordValidationError('outcome must be an object', 'outcome')\n  }\n  const outRec = out as Record<string, unknown>\n  if (outRec.searchScore !== undefined) expectFiniteNumber(outRec.searchScore, 'outcome.searchScore')\n  if (outRec.holdoutScore !== undefined) expectFiniteNumber(outRec.holdoutScore, 'outcome.holdoutScore')\n  if (outRec.searchScore === undefined && outRec.holdoutScore === undefined) {\n    throw new RunRecordValidationError(\n      'outcome must define searchScore or holdoutScore (or both)',\n      'outcome',\n    )\n  }\n  const raw = outRec.raw\n  if (raw === null || typeof raw !== 'object') {\n    throw new RunRecordValidationError('outcome.raw must be an object', 'outcome.raw')\n  }\n  for (const [k, v] of Object.entries(raw as Record<string, unknown>)) {\n    expectFiniteNumber(v, `outcome.raw.${k}`)\n  }\n\n  // Failure mode optional.\n  if (obj.failureMode !== undefined) expectString(obj.failureMode, 'failureMode')\n\n  // Split tag.\n  if (typeof obj.splitTag !== 'string' || !SPLIT_TAGS.includes(obj.splitTag as RunSplitTag)) {\n    throw new RunRecordValidationError(\n      `splitTag must be one of ${SPLIT_TAGS.join(', ')}, got ${String(obj.splitTag)}`,\n      'splitTag',\n    )\n  }\n\n  return input as RunRecord\n}\n\n/** Boolean validator — convenience for filtering arrays. */\nexport function isRunRecord(input: unknown): input is RunRecord {\n  try {\n    validateRunRecord(input)\n    return true\n  } catch {\n    return false\n  }\n}\n\n/** Non-throwing validator — returns a discriminated union. */\nexport function parseRunRecordSafe(\n  input: unknown,\n):\n  | { ok: true; value: RunRecord }\n  | { ok: false; error: RunRecordValidationError } {\n  try {\n    return { ok: true, value: validateRunRecord(input) }\n  } catch (e) {\n    if (e instanceof RunRecordValidationError) return { ok: false, error: e }\n    throw e\n  }\n}\n\n/** Round-trip helper — `JSON.parse(JSON.stringify(record))` then validate. */\nexport function roundTripRunRecord(record: RunRecord): RunRecord {\n  const json = JSON.stringify(record)\n  return validateRunRecord(JSON.parse(json))\n}\n\n// ── Internals ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────\n\nfunction expectString(value: unknown, path: string): void {\n  if (typeof value !== 'string' || value.length === 0) {\n    throw new RunRecordValidationError(`expected non-empty string`, path)\n  }\n}\n\nfunction expectFiniteNumber(value: unknown, path: string): void {\n  if (typeof value !== 'number' || !Number.isFinite(value)) {\n    throw new RunRecordValidationError(`expected finite number`, path)\n  }\n}\n\n/**\n * Heuristic snapshot check. Accepts:\n *   - `name@YYYY-MM-DD` (Anthropic style: `claude-sonnet-4-6@2025-04-15`)\n *   - `name-YYYYMMDD`   (OpenAI style: `gpt-4o-2024-11-20`)\n *   - `name@<arbitrary-token>` (allow opaque snapshots like `@v3`)\n *   - explicit `:date-...` Vertex-style tags\n *\n * Rejects bare aliases like `claude-sonnet-4` or `gpt-4o` that remap\n * silently as providers ship new snapshots.\n */\nfunction modelHasSnapshot(model: string): boolean {\n  if (model.includes('@')) return true\n  if (/-\\d{8}$/.test(model)) return true\n  if (/-\\d{4}-\\d{2}-\\d{2}$/.test(model)) return true\n  if (/:date-/.test(model)) return true\n  return false\n}\n"],"mappings":";AAsHA,IAAM,sBAAsB;AAAA,EAC1B;AAAA,EACA;AAAA,EACA;AAAA,EACA;AAAA,EACA;AAAA,EACA;AAAA,EACA;AAAA,EACA;AAAA,EACA;AAAA,EACA;AAAA,EACA;AAAA,EACA;AAAA,EACA;AACF;AAEA,IAAM,aAAyC,CAAC,UAAU,OAAO,SAAS;AAEnE,IAAM,2BAAN,cAAuC,MAAM;AAAA,EACzC;AAAA,EACT,YAAY,SAAiB,OAAO,IAAI;AACtC,UAAM,OAAO,GAAG,OAAO,QAAQ,IAAI,MAAM,OAAO;AAChD,SAAK,OAAO;AACZ,SAAK,OAAO;AAAA,EACd;AACF;AAOO,SAAS,kBAAkB,OAA2B;AAC3D,MAAI,UAAU,QAAQ,OAAO,UAAU,UAAU;AAC/C,UAAM,IAAI,yBAAyB,iBAAiB;AAAA,EACtD;AACA,QAAM,MAAM;AAEZ,aAAW,OAAO,qBAAqB;AACrC,QAAI,EAAE,OAAO,MAAM;AACjB,YAAM,IAAI,yBAAyB,4BAA4B,GAAG,GAAG;AAAA,IACvE;AAAA,EACF;AAEA,eAAa,IAAI,OAAO,OAAO;AAC/B,eAAa,IAAI,cAAc,cAAc;AAC7C,eAAa,IAAI,aAAa,aAAa;AAC3C,qBAAmB,IAAI,MAAM,MAAM;AACnC,eAAa,IAAI,OAAO,OAAO;AAC/B,eAAa,IAAI,YAAY,YAAY;AACzC,eAAa,IAAI,YAAY,YAAY;AACzC,eAAa,IAAI,WAAW,WAAW;AACvC,qBAAmB,IAAI,QAAQ,QAAQ;AACvC,MAAI,IAAI,YAAY,OAAW,oBAAmB,IAAI,SAAS,SAAS;AACxE,qBAAmB,IAAI,SAAS,SAAS;AAGzC,MAAI,CAAC,iBAAiB,IAAI,KAAe,GAAG;AAC1C,UAAM,IAAI;AAAA,MACR,UAAU,IAAI,KAAK;AAAA,MACnB;AAAA,IACF;AAAA,EACF;AAGA,QAAM,KAAK,IAAI;AACf,MAAI,OAAO,QAAQ,OAAO,OAAO,UAAU;AACzC,UAAM,IAAI,yBAAyB,gCAAgC,YAAY;AAAA,EACjF;AACA,QAAM,QAAQ;AACd,qBAAmB,MAAM,OAAO,kBAAkB;AAClD,qBAAmB,MAAM,QAAQ,mBAAmB;AACpD,MAAI,MAAM,WAAW,OAAW,oBAAmB,MAAM,QAAQ,mBAAmB;AAGpF,MAAI,IAAI,kBAAkB,QAAW;AACnC,UAAM,KAAK,IAAI;AACf,QAAI,OAAO,QAAQ,OAAO,OAAO,UAAU;AACzC,YAAM,IAAI,yBAAyB,mCAAmC,eAAe;AAAA,IACvF;AACA,UAAM,QAAQ;AACd,iBAAa,MAAM,OAAO,qBAAqB;AAC/C,iBAAa,MAAM,eAAe,6BAA6B;AAC/D,uBAAmB,MAAM,YAAY,0BAA0B;AAC/D,QAAI,OAAO,MAAM,aAAa,WAAW;AACvC,YAAM,IAAI,yBAAyB,0CAA0C,wBAAwB;AAAA,IACvG;AAAA,EACF;AAGA,QAAM,MAAM,IAAI;AAChB,MAAI,QAAQ,QAAQ,OAAO,QAAQ,UAAU;AAC3C,UAAM,IAAI,yBAAyB,6BAA6B,SAAS;AAAA,EAC3E;AACA,QAAM,SAAS;AACf,MAAI,OAAO,gBAAgB,OAAW,oBAAmB,OAAO,aAAa,qBAAqB;AAClG,MAAI,OAAO,iBAAiB,OAAW,oBAAmB,OAAO,cAAc,sBAAsB;AACrG,MAAI,OAAO,gBAAgB,UAAa,OAAO,iBAAiB,QAAW;AACzE,UAAM,IAAI;AAAA,MACR;AAAA,MACA;AAAA,IACF;AAAA,EACF;AACA,QAAM,MAAM,OAAO;AACnB,MAAI,QAAQ,QAAQ,OAAO,QAAQ,UAAU;AAC3C,UAAM,IAAI,yBAAyB,iCAAiC,aAAa;AAAA,EACnF;AACA,aAAW,CAAC,GAAG,CAAC,KAAK,OAAO,QAAQ,GAA8B,GAAG;AACnE,uBAAmB,GAAG,eAAe,CAAC,EAAE;AAAA,EAC1C;AAGA,MAAI,IAAI,gBAAgB,OAAW,cAAa,IAAI,aAAa,aAAa;AAG9E,MAAI,OAAO,IAAI,aAAa,YAAY,CAAC,WAAW,SAAS,IAAI,QAAuB,GAAG;AACzF,UAAM,IAAI;AAAA,MACR,2BAA2B,WAAW,KAAK,IAAI,CAAC,SAAS,OAAO,IAAI,QAAQ,CAAC;AAAA,MAC7E;AAAA,IACF;AAAA,EACF;AAEA,SAAO;AACT;AAGO,SAAS,YAAY,OAAoC;AAC9D,MAAI;AACF,sBAAkB,KAAK;AACvB,WAAO;AAAA,EACT,QAAQ;AACN,WAAO;AAAA,EACT;AACF;AAGO,SAAS,mBACd,OAGiD;AACjD,MAAI;AACF,WAAO,EAAE,IAAI,MAAM,OAAO,kBAAkB,KAAK,EAAE;AAAA,EACrD,SAAS,GAAG;AACV,QAAI,aAAa,yBAA0B,QAAO,EAAE,IAAI,OAAO,OAAO,EAAE;AACxE,UAAM;AAAA,EACR;AACF;AAGO,SAAS,mBAAmB,QAA8B;AAC/D,QAAM,OAAO,KAAK,UAAU,MAAM;AAClC,SAAO,kBAAkB,KAAK,MAAM,IAAI,CAAC;AAC3C;AAIA,SAAS,aAAa,OAAgB,MAAoB;AACxD,MAAI,OAAO,UAAU,YAAY,MAAM,WAAW,GAAG;AACnD,UAAM,IAAI,yBAAyB,6BAA6B,IAAI;AAAA,EACtE;AACF;AAEA,SAAS,mBAAmB,OAAgB,MAAoB;AAC9D,MAAI,OAAO,UAAU,YAAY,CAAC,OAAO,SAAS,KAAK,GAAG;AACxD,UAAM,IAAI,yBAAyB,0BAA0B,IAAI;AAAA,EACnE;AACF;AAYA,SAAS,iBAAiB,OAAwB;AAChD,MAAI,MAAM,SAAS,GAAG,EAAG,QAAO;AAChC,MAAI,UAAU,KAAK,KAAK,EAAG,QAAO;AAClC,MAAI,sBAAsB,KAAK,KAAK,EAAG,QAAO;AAC9C,MAAI,SAAS,KAAK,KAAK,EAAG,QAAO;AACjC,SAAO;AACT;","names":[]}