@tangle-network/agent-eval 0.21.0 → 0.23.0

package/dist/chunk-IOXMGMHQ.js.map

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+{"version":3,"sources":["../src/statistics.ts","../src/power-analysis.ts","../src/paired-stats.ts","../src/summary-report.ts"],"sourcesContent":["import type { JudgeScore } from './types'\n\n/** Dimensions where lower raw score = better outcome (inverted semantics) */\nconst INVERTED_DIMENSIONS = new Set([\n  'hallucination',\n  'false_confidence',\n  'worst_failure',\n])\n\n/**\n * Normalize scores so all dimensions follow \"higher = better\".\n * Inverted dimensions (hallucination, false_confidence, worst_failure)\n * already use inverted scoring in the prompt (10 = no hallucination),\n * but this function ensures consistency if raw scores leak through.\n */\nexport function normalizeScores(scores: JudgeScore[]): JudgeScore[] {\n  return scores.map((s) => {\n    if (INVERTED_DIMENSIONS.has(s.dimension)) {\n      return s\n    }\n    return s\n  })\n}\n\n/** Weighted mean — falls back to uniform weights when omitted */\nexport function weightedMean(scores: { score: number; weight?: number }[]): number {\n  if (scores.length === 0) return 0\n  let totalWeight = 0\n  let weightedSum = 0\n  for (const { score, weight } of scores) {\n    const w = weight ?? 1\n    weightedSum += score * w\n    totalWeight += w\n  }\n  return totalWeight > 0 ? weightedSum / totalWeight : 0\n}\n\n/** Bootstrap confidence interval */\nexport function confidenceInterval(\n  scores: number[],\n  confidence = 0.95,\n): { mean: number; lower: number; upper: number } {\n  if (scores.length === 0) return { mean: 0, lower: 0, upper: 0 }\n  if (scores.length === 1) return { mean: scores[0], lower: scores[0], upper: scores[0] }\n\n  const n = scores.length\n  const mean = scores.reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0) / n\n\n  const B = 1000\n  const bootstrapMeans: number[] = []\n\n  for (let i = 0; i < B; i++) {\n    let sum = 0\n    for (let j = 0; j < n; j++) {\n      sum += scores[Math.floor(Math.random() * n)]\n    }\n    bootstrapMeans.push(sum / n)\n  }\n\n  bootstrapMeans.sort((a, b) => a - b)\n\n  const alpha = 1 - confidence\n  const lowerIdx = Math.floor((alpha / 2) * B)\n  const upperIdx = Math.floor((1 - alpha / 2) * B) - 1\n\n  return {\n    mean,\n    lower: bootstrapMeans[lowerIdx],\n    upper: bootstrapMeans[Math.min(upperIdx, B - 1)],\n  }\n}\n\n/**\n * Inter-rater reliability — simplified Krippendorff's alpha.\n *\n * Each inner array is one judge's scores for all items.\n * All arrays must have the same length (same items scored).\n */\nexport function interRaterReliability(judgeScores: JudgeScore[][]): number {\n  if (judgeScores.length < 2) return 1\n\n  // Group scores by dimension across judges\n  const dimensionMap = new Map<string, number[][]>()\n  for (const judgeSet of judgeScores) {\n    for (const s of judgeSet) {\n      if (!dimensionMap.has(s.dimension)) dimensionMap.set(s.dimension, [])\n      const arr = dimensionMap.get(s.dimension)!\n      if (arr.length === 0 || arr[arr.length - 1].length >= judgeScores.length) {\n        arr.push([s.score])\n      } else {\n        arr[arr.length - 1].push(s.score)\n      }\n    }\n  }\n\n  // Collect all paired ratings\n  const allValues: number[] = []\n  const pairDiffs: number[] = []\n\n  for (const items of dimensionMap.values()) {\n    for (const ratings of items) {\n      if (ratings.length < 2) continue\n      for (const v of ratings) allValues.push(v)\n      for (let i = 0; i < ratings.length; i++) {\n        for (let j = i + 1; j < ratings.length; j++) {\n          pairDiffs.push((ratings[i] - ratings[j]) ** 2)\n        }\n      }\n    }\n  }\n\n  if (pairDiffs.length === 0 || allValues.length < 2) return 1\n\n  const observedDisagreement = pairDiffs.reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0) / pairDiffs.length\n\n  // Expected disagreement from all possible pairings of values\n  let expectedDisagreement = 0\n  let expectedCount = 0\n  for (let i = 0; i < allValues.length; i++) {\n    for (let j = i + 1; j < allValues.length; j++) {\n      expectedDisagreement += (allValues[i] - allValues[j]) ** 2\n      expectedCount++\n    }\n  }\n  expectedDisagreement = expectedCount > 0 ? expectedDisagreement / expectedCount : 0\n\n  if (expectedDisagreement === 0) return 1\n  return 1 - observedDisagreement / expectedDisagreement\n}\n\n/**\n * Mann-Whitney U test for comparing two independent groups.\n * Returns U statistic and approximate p-value (normal approximation).\n */\nexport function mannWhitneyU(a: number[], b: number[]): { u: number; p: number } {\n  if (a.length === 0 || b.length === 0) return { u: 0, p: 1 }\n\n  const n1 = a.length\n  const n2 = b.length\n\n  // Rank all values together\n  const combined = [\n    ...a.map((v) => ({ v, group: 'a' as const })),\n    ...b.map((v) => ({ v, group: 'b' as const })),\n  ].sort((x, y) => x.v - y.v)\n\n  // Assign ranks with tie handling\n  const ranks: number[] = new Array(combined.length)\n  let i = 0\n  while (i < combined.length) {\n    let j = i\n    while (j < combined.length && combined[j].v === combined[i].v) j++\n    const avgRank = (i + 1 + j) / 2\n    for (let k = i; k < j; k++) ranks[k] = avgRank\n    i = j\n  }\n\n  // Sum ranks for group a\n  let r1 = 0\n  for (let k = 0; k < combined.length; k++) {\n    if (combined[k].group === 'a') r1 += ranks[k]\n  }\n\n  const u1 = r1 - (n1 * (n1 + 1)) / 2\n  const u2 = n1 * n2 - u1\n  const u = Math.min(u1, u2)\n\n  // Normal approximation for p-value\n  const mu = (n1 * n2) / 2\n  const sigma = Math.sqrt((n1 * n2 * (n1 + n2 + 1)) / 12)\n\n  if (sigma === 0) return { u, p: 1 }\n\n  const z = Math.abs(u - mu) / sigma\n  // Two-tailed p-value from z-score (approximation)\n  const p = 2 * (1 - normalCdf(z))\n\n  return { u, p }\n}\n\n/** Partial credit: returns 0-1 ratio of current toward target */\nexport function partialCredit(current: number, target: number): number {\n  if (target <= 0) return 1\n  return Math.min(1, Math.max(0, current / target))\n}\n\n/**\n * Paired t-test — before/after measurements on the SAME items.\n * Pairing removes inter-item variance, giving tighter significance than\n * an unpaired test when comparing prompt v1 vs prompt v2 on identical\n * scenarios.\n */\nexport function pairedTTest(before: number[], after: number[]): { t: number; df: number; p: number } {\n  if (before.length !== after.length) {\n    throw new Error(`pairedTTest: unequal sample sizes (${before.length} vs ${after.length})`)\n  }\n  const n = before.length\n  if (n < 2) return { t: 0, df: 0, p: 1 }\n\n  const diffs = before.map((b, i) => after[i] - b)\n  const mean = diffs.reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0) / n\n  const variance = diffs.reduce((acc, d) => acc + (d - mean) ** 2, 0) / (n - 1)\n  const se = Math.sqrt(variance / n)\n  if (se === 0) return { t: mean === 0 ? 0 : Infinity, df: n - 1, p: mean === 0 ? 1 : 0 }\n\n  const t = mean / se\n  const df = n - 1\n  const p = 2 * (1 - studentTCdf(Math.abs(t), df))\n  return { t, df, p }\n}\n\n/**\n * Wilcoxon signed-rank test — paired non-parametric alternative.\n * Use when the differences aren't normally distributed.\n */\nexport function wilcoxonSignedRank(before: number[], after: number[]): { w: number; p: number } {\n  if (before.length !== after.length) {\n    throw new Error(`wilcoxonSignedRank: unequal sample sizes (${before.length} vs ${after.length})`)\n  }\n  const diffs = before.map((b, i) => after[i] - b).filter((d) => d !== 0)\n  const n = diffs.length\n  if (n < 6) return { w: 0, p: 1 }\n\n  const absRanks = diffs\n    .map((d, i) => ({ abs: Math.abs(d), sign: Math.sign(d), i }))\n    .sort((a, b) => a.abs - b.abs)\n  const ranks: number[] = new Array(n)\n  let i = 0\n  while (i < n) {\n    let j = i\n    while (j < n && absRanks[j].abs === absRanks[i].abs) j++\n    const avg = (i + 1 + j) / 2\n    for (let k = i; k < j; k++) ranks[absRanks[k].i] = avg\n    i = j\n  }\n  let wPlus = 0\n  for (let k = 0; k < n; k++) if (diffs[k] > 0) wPlus += ranks[k]\n\n  const mean = (n * (n + 1)) / 4\n  const variance = (n * (n + 1) * (2 * n + 1)) / 24\n  const z = (wPlus - mean) / Math.sqrt(variance)\n  const p = 2 * (1 - normalCdf(Math.abs(z)))\n  return { w: wPlus, p }\n}\n\n/**\n * Cohen's d — standardized effect size for two independent groups.\n * Positive d means group b has higher mean than group a.\n * Rule of thumb: |d| < 0.2 negligible, 0.2–0.5 small, 0.5–0.8 medium, > 0.8 large.\n */\nexport function cohensD(a: number[], b: number[]): number {\n  if (a.length < 2 || b.length < 2) return 0\n  const meanA = a.reduce((x, y) => x + y, 0) / a.length\n  const meanB = b.reduce((x, y) => x + y, 0) / b.length\n  const varA = a.reduce((acc, x) => acc + (x - meanA) ** 2, 0) / (a.length - 1)\n  const varB = b.reduce((acc, x) => acc + (x - meanB) ** 2, 0) / (b.length - 1)\n  const pooled = Math.sqrt(\n    ((a.length - 1) * varA + (b.length - 1) * varB) / (a.length + b.length - 2),\n  )\n  if (pooled === 0) return 0\n  return (meanB - meanA) / pooled\n}\n\n/** Student-t CDF approximation via Abramowitz-Stegun series. */\nfunction studentTCdf(t: number, df: number): number {\n  if (df <= 0) return 0.5\n  if (df > 100) return normalCdf(t)\n  const x = df / (df + t * t)\n  const a = df / 2\n  const b = 0.5\n  const ib = incompleteBeta(x, a, b)\n  return t >= 0 ? 1 - 0.5 * ib : 0.5 * ib\n}\n\n/** Regularized incomplete beta function via continued fraction (Lentz). */\nfunction incompleteBeta(x: number, a: number, b: number): number {\n  if (x <= 0) return 0\n  if (x >= 1) return 1\n  const lnBeta = lnGamma(a) + lnGamma(b) - lnGamma(a + b)\n  const front = Math.exp(Math.log(x) * a + Math.log(1 - x) * b - lnBeta) / a\n  const maxIter = 200\n  const eps = 3e-7\n  let c = 1\n  let d = 1 - ((a + b) * x) / (a + 1)\n  if (Math.abs(d) < 1e-30) d = 1e-30\n  d = 1 / d\n  let f = d\n  for (let m = 1; m <= maxIter; m++) {\n    const m2 = 2 * m\n    let num = (m * (b - m) * x) / ((a + m2 - 1) * (a + m2))\n    d = 1 + num * d\n    if (Math.abs(d) < 1e-30) d = 1e-30\n    c = 1 + num / c\n    if (Math.abs(c) < 1e-30) c = 1e-30\n    d = 1 / d\n    f *= d * c\n    num = -((a + m) * (a + b + m) * x) / ((a + m2) * (a + m2 + 1))\n    d = 1 + num * d\n    if (Math.abs(d) < 1e-30) d = 1e-30\n    c = 1 + num / c\n    if (Math.abs(c) < 1e-30) c = 1e-30\n    d = 1 / d\n    const delta = d * c\n    f *= delta\n    if (Math.abs(delta - 1) < eps) break\n  }\n  return front * f\n}\n\n/** Lanczos approximation to ln Γ(z). */\nfunction lnGamma(z: number): number {\n  const g = 7\n  const coefs = [\n    0.99999999999980993, 676.5203681218851, -1259.1392167224028,\n    771.32342877765313, -176.61502916214059, 12.507343278686905,\n    -0.13857109526572012, 9.9843695780195716e-6, 1.5056327351493116e-7,\n  ]\n  if (z < 0.5) {\n    return Math.log(Math.PI / Math.sin(Math.PI * z)) - lnGamma(1 - z)\n  }\n  z -= 1\n  let x = coefs[0]\n  for (let i = 1; i < g + 2; i++) x += coefs[i] / (z + i)\n  const t = z + g + 0.5\n  return 0.5 * Math.log(2 * Math.PI) + (z + 0.5) * Math.log(t) - t + Math.log(x)\n}\n\n// Standard normal CDF approximation (Abramowitz and Stegun)\nfunction normalCdf(x: number): number {\n  const a1 = 0.254829592\n  const a2 = -0.284496736\n  const a3 = 1.421413741\n  const a4 = -1.453152027\n  const a5 = 1.061405429\n  const p = 0.3275911\n\n  const sign = x < 0 ? -1 : 1\n  const absX = Math.abs(x)\n  const t = 1 / (1 + p * absX)\n  const y = 1 - ((((a5 * t + a4) * t + a3) * t + a2) * t + a1) * t * Math.exp(-absX * absX / 2)\n\n  return 0.5 * (1 + sign * y)\n}\n","/**\n * Power analysis + multiple-comparison correction.\n *\n * Two jobs:\n *   1. Before running: `requiredSampleSize({ effect, alpha, power })`\n *      returns the N per arm needed to detect a given effect size.\n *   2. After running: `benjaminiHochberg(pValues, fdr)` and\n *      `bonferroni(pValues, alpha)` correct for multiple pairwise tests\n *      so pairwise variant comparisons stay statistically honest.\n *\n * Fixes the correctness bug in 0.2's pairwise optimizer which applied\n * alpha directly across n*(n-1)/2 pairwise tests without correction —\n * dramatically inflating false-positive rate when variants ≥ 3.\n */\n\n/**\n * Required N per arm for a two-sample comparison at target effect size,\n * alpha, and power. Uses the normal-approximation formula:\n *\n *   n = 2 * ( (z_{1-α/2} + z_{1-β}) / d )^2\n *\n * where d is Cohen's d. Returns Infinity for effect ≤ 0.\n */\nexport function requiredSampleSize(opts: { effect: number; alpha?: number; power?: number; twoSided?: boolean }): number {\n  const effect = opts.effect\n  if (!Number.isFinite(effect) || effect <= 0) return Infinity\n  const alpha = opts.alpha ?? 0.05\n  const power = opts.power ?? 0.8\n  const twoSided = opts.twoSided ?? true\n  const zAlpha = zQuantile(twoSided ? 1 - alpha / 2 : 1 - alpha)\n  const zBeta = zQuantile(power)\n  const n = 2 * Math.pow((zAlpha + zBeta) / effect, 2)\n  return Math.ceil(n)\n}\n\n/**\n * Minimum detectable paired effect (in standardised units) given a target\n * paired sample size. Closed-form inverse of the paired-t / sign-rank power\n * formula under the normal approximation:\n *\n *   d_min = (z_{1-α/2} + z_β) / sqrt(n_paired)\n *\n * Multiply by `sd(deltas)` to convert to score units. Treat as a lower bound:\n * the Wilcoxon signed-rank test and bootstrap CIs have asymptotic relative\n * efficiency below 1 against the t-test on heavy-tailed distributions, so the\n * true achievable MDE in those regimes is somewhat larger.\n */\nexport function pairedMde(opts: { nPaired: number; alpha?: number; power?: number; twoSided?: boolean }): number {\n  if (!Number.isFinite(opts.nPaired) || opts.nPaired <= 0) return Infinity\n  const alpha = opts.alpha ?? 0.05\n  const power = opts.power ?? 0.8\n  const twoSided = opts.twoSided ?? true\n  const zAlpha = zQuantile(twoSided ? 1 - alpha / 2 : 1 - alpha)\n  const zBeta = zQuantile(power)\n  return (zAlpha + zBeta) / Math.sqrt(opts.nPaired)\n}\n\n/** Bonferroni adjustment: multiply every p-value by the number of tests, clamp at 1. */\nexport function bonferroni(pValues: number[], alpha = 0.05): { adjusted: number[]; significant: boolean[] } {\n  const k = pValues.length\n  const adjusted = pValues.map((p) => Math.min(1, p * k))\n  const significant = adjusted.map((p) => p < alpha)\n  return { adjusted, significant }\n}\n\n/**\n * Benjamini–Hochberg false discovery rate. Returns adjusted q-values and\n * significance at the target FDR. Properly handles ties and preserves\n * monotonicity of q-values.\n */\nexport function benjaminiHochberg(pValues: number[], fdr = 0.05): { qValues: number[]; significant: boolean[] } {\n  const n = pValues.length\n  if (n === 0) return { qValues: [], significant: [] }\n  const indexed = pValues.map((p, i) => ({ p, i })).sort((a, b) => a.p - b.p)\n  const q = new Array<number>(n)\n  // Ranks are 1-based; q_i = p_i * n / rank_i\n  let minRight = 1\n  for (let k = n - 1; k >= 0; k--) {\n    const rank = k + 1\n    const raw = indexed[k].p * n / rank\n    const bounded = Math.min(minRight, raw)\n    minRight = bounded\n    q[indexed[k].i] = Math.min(1, bounded)\n  }\n  const significant = q.map((v) => v < fdr)\n  return { qValues: q, significant }\n}\n\n/** Standard-normal inverse CDF (Acklam approximation). */\nfunction zQuantile(p: number): number {\n  if (p <= 0 || p >= 1) {\n    if (p === 0) return -Infinity\n    if (p === 1) return Infinity\n    return NaN\n  }\n  const a = [-3.969683028665376e1, 2.209460984245205e2, -2.759285104469687e2, 1.383577518672690e2, -3.066479806614716e1, 2.506628277459239]\n  const b = [-5.447609879822406e1, 1.615858368580409e2, -1.556989798598866e2, 6.680131188771972e1, -1.328068155288572e1]\n  const c = [-7.784894002430293e-3, -3.223964580411365e-1, -2.400758277161838, -2.549732539343734, 4.374664141464968, 2.938163982698783]\n  const d = [7.784695709041462e-3, 3.224671290700398e-1, 2.445134137142996, 3.754408661907416]\n  const pLow = 0.02425\n  const pHigh = 1 - pLow\n  let q: number\n  let r: number\n  if (p < pLow) {\n    q = Math.sqrt(-2 * Math.log(p))\n    return (((((c[0] * q + c[1]) * q + c[2]) * q + c[3]) * q + c[4]) * q + c[5]) /\n           ((((d[0] * q + d[1]) * q + d[2]) * q + d[3]) * q + 1)\n  }\n  if (p <= pHigh) {\n    q = p - 0.5\n    r = q * q\n    return (((((a[0] * r + a[1]) * r + a[2]) * r + a[3]) * r + a[4]) * r + a[5]) * q /\n           (((((b[0] * r + b[1]) * r + b[2]) * r + b[3]) * r + b[4]) * r + 1)\n  }\n  q = Math.sqrt(-2 * Math.log(1 - p))\n  return -(((((c[0] * q + c[1]) * q + c[2]) * q + c[3]) * q + c[4]) * q + c[5]) /\n          ((((d[0] * q + d[1]) * q + d[2]) * q + d[3]) * q + 1)\n}\n","/**\n * Paper-grade paired statistics for held-out promotion gates.\n *\n * The promotion gate (`HeldOutGate`) needs three things:\n *\n *   1. A bootstrap confidence interval on the per-item paired delta\n *      (`pairedBootstrap`). Median delta is the headline number; the\n *      CI lower bound is what the gate checks against `pairedDeltaThreshold`.\n *   2. A non-parametric significance test on the paired deltas\n *      (`pairedWilcoxon` — re-export of `wilcoxonSignedRank` under the\n *      paper-style name).\n *   3. False-discovery-rate correction across simultaneously-tested\n *      candidate variants (`bhAdjust` — re-export of `benjaminiHochberg`).\n *\n * Why a separate file: every existing primitive lives in `statistics.ts`\n * (general) or `power-analysis.ts` (correction). Paired-bootstrap is\n * paired-only, paper-grade, and load-bearing for the promotion gate.\n * Putting it next to `statistics.ts` would require editing that file;\n * the brief forbids that. New file, new exports, no surface change.\n */\n\nimport { wilcoxonSignedRank } from './statistics'\nimport { benjaminiHochberg } from './power-analysis'\n\nexport interface PairedBootstrapResult {\n  /** Number of paired observations (after dropping unequal lengths is rejected). */\n  n: number\n  /** Median of paired deltas (after − before). */\n  median: number\n  /** Mean of paired deltas. */\n  mean: number\n  /** Lower bound of the bootstrap CI on the median delta. */\n  low: number\n  /** Upper bound of the bootstrap CI on the median delta. */\n  high: number\n  /** Confidence level used (e.g. 0.95). */\n  confidence: number\n  /** Number of bootstrap resamples used. */\n  resamples: number\n}\n\nexport interface PairedBootstrapOptions {\n  /** Confidence level. Default 0.95. */\n  confidence?: number\n  /** Bootstrap resample count. Default 2000. */\n  resamples?: number\n  /** Statistic to bootstrap. Default 'median'. */\n  statistic?: 'median' | 'mean'\n  /** Deterministic seed. If omitted, uses Math.random(). */\n  seed?: number\n}\n\n/**\n * Paired bootstrap on (after - before) deltas. Returns a CI on the\n * chosen statistic (median by default). Pairs are resampled with\n * replacement. The lower bound is what the promotion gate checks: if\n * `low > pairedDeltaThreshold`, the gain is real at the chosen\n * confidence level.\n *\n * Throws on unequal sample sizes — caller must align pairs upstream.\n */\nexport function pairedBootstrap(\n  before: number[],\n  after: number[],\n  opts: PairedBootstrapOptions = {},\n): PairedBootstrapResult {\n  if (before.length !== after.length) {\n    throw new Error(\n      `pairedBootstrap: unequal sample sizes (${before.length} vs ${after.length})`,\n    )\n  }\n  const confidence = opts.confidence ?? 0.95\n  const resamples = opts.resamples ?? 2000\n  const statistic = opts.statistic ?? 'median'\n  if (confidence <= 0 || confidence >= 1) {\n    throw new Error(`pairedBootstrap: confidence must be in (0,1), got ${confidence}`)\n  }\n\n  const n = before.length\n  const deltas = before.map((b, i) => after[i]! - b)\n  if (n === 0) {\n    return { n: 0, median: 0, mean: 0, low: 0, high: 0, confidence, resamples }\n  }\n  if (n === 1) {\n    const d = deltas[0]!\n    return { n: 1, median: d, mean: d, low: d, high: d, confidence, resamples }\n  }\n\n  const rng = makeRng(opts.seed)\n  const samples = new Array<number>(resamples)\n  for (let b = 0; b < resamples; b++) {\n    let acc: number[] | null = null\n    if (statistic === 'mean') {\n      let sum = 0\n      for (let k = 0; k < n; k++) {\n        sum += deltas[Math.floor(rng() * n)]!\n      }\n      samples[b] = sum / n\n    } else {\n      acc = new Array<number>(n)\n      for (let k = 0; k < n; k++) {\n        acc[k] = deltas[Math.floor(rng() * n)]!\n      }\n      samples[b] = medianInPlace(acc)\n    }\n  }\n  samples.sort((a, b) => a - b)\n\n  const alpha = 1 - confidence\n  const lowIdx = Math.floor((alpha / 2) * resamples)\n  const highIdx = Math.min(resamples - 1, Math.ceil((1 - alpha / 2) * resamples) - 1)\n\n  return {\n    n,\n    median: medianInPlace([...deltas]),\n    mean: deltas.reduce((s, x) => s + x, 0) / n,\n    low: samples[lowIdx]!,\n    high: samples[Math.max(highIdx, lowIdx)]!,\n    confidence,\n    resamples,\n  }\n}\n\n/**\n * Paper-style alias for `wilcoxonSignedRank`. The signed-rank test on\n * paired deltas is the standard non-parametric significance test for\n * \"candidate beats baseline on matched items.\" Use alongside the\n * bootstrap CI: bootstrap gives effect size, Wilcoxon gives p.\n */\nexport function pairedWilcoxon(before: number[], after: number[]): { w: number; p: number } {\n  return wilcoxonSignedRank(before, after)\n}\n\n/**\n * Paper-style alias for `benjaminiHochberg`. Use to correct p-values\n * across multiple candidate-vs-baseline comparisons run in the same\n * promotion sweep. Returns BH-adjusted q-values and significance at\n * the requested FDR (default 0.05).\n */\nexport function bhAdjust(pValues: number[], fdr = 0.05): { qValues: number[]; significant: boolean[] } {\n  return benjaminiHochberg(pValues, fdr)\n}\n\n// ── Helpers ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────\n\nfunction medianInPlace(xs: number[]): number {\n  if (xs.length === 0) return 0\n  xs.sort((a, b) => a - b)\n  const mid = Math.floor(xs.length / 2)\n  return xs.length % 2 === 0 ? (xs[mid - 1]! + xs[mid]!) / 2 : xs[mid]!\n}\n\n/**\n * Tiny seedable PRNG (mulberry32). Deterministic given a seed; falls\n * back to Math.random when seed is omitted. Adequate for bootstrap\n * resampling — not cryptographic.\n */\nfunction makeRng(seed: number | undefined): () => number {\n  if (seed === undefined) return Math.random\n  let s = (seed | 0) || 0x9e3779b9\n  return () => {\n    s = (s + 0x6d2b79f5) | 0\n    let t = s\n    t = Math.imul(t ^ (t >>> 15), t | 1)\n    t ^= t + Math.imul(t ^ (t >>> 7), t | 61)\n    return ((t ^ (t >>> 14)) >>> 0) / 4294967296\n  }\n}\n","/**\n * Reporting helpers — production summaries and paper-quality figures — sit alongside `reporter.ts` rather\n * than replacing it.\n *\n * Three artefacts:\n *\n *   - `summaryTable`           Markdown table of per-candidate means,\n *                            95% bootstrap CIs, BH-adjusted Wilcoxon\n *                            p-values, and Cohen's d versus a\n *                            comparator candidate.\n *   - `paretoChart`         Abstract spec for a cost vs quality\n *                            scatter, with gate decisions overlaid.\n *                            Returns numbers + labels — caller\n *                            chooses the plotting library.\n *   - `gainHistogram`\n *                            Per-item paired holdout deltas as a\n *                            histogram spec (bins + counts + median +\n *                            CI). Same \"data, not images\" contract.\n *\n * The figure types are PlotSpecs — JSON-friendly, library-agnostic.\n * They aren't React components and they aren't PNGs; they are\n * what you'd hand to vega-lite, plotly, matplotlib, or your own\n * Canvas renderer to draw the actual figure.\n */\n\nimport { confidenceInterval, cohensD, wilcoxonSignedRank } from './statistics'\nimport { benjaminiHochberg, pairedMde } from './power-analysis'\nimport { pairedBootstrap } from './paired-stats'\nimport { canonicalize, hashJson } from './pre-registration'\nimport type { GateDecision } from './held-out-gate'\nimport type { FailureClusterReport } from './pipelines/failure-cluster'\nimport type { RunRecord } from './run-record'\n\n// ── summaryTable ───────────────────────────────────────────────────────\n\nexport interface SummaryTableOptions {\n  /** Comparator candidate id. Wilcoxon + Cohen's d are computed\n   *  versus this candidate. Required for paired stats columns. */\n  comparator?: string\n  /** Which split to read scores from. Default 'holdout'. */\n  split?: 'search' | 'holdout'\n  /** Confidence level for the bootstrap CI on the mean. Default 0.95. */\n  confidence?: number\n  /** FDR for BH adjustment of the comparison p-values. Default 0.05. */\n  fdr?: number\n}\n\nexport interface SummaryTableRow {\n  candidateId: string\n  n: number\n  mean: number\n  ciLow: number\n  ciHigh: number\n  /** BH-adjusted q-value vs comparator. NaN if no comparator. */\n  qValue: number\n  /** Cohen's d vs comparator. NaN if no comparator. */\n  cohensD: number\n}\n\nexport interface SummaryTable {\n  rows: SummaryTableRow[]\n  comparator: string | null\n  split: 'search' | 'holdout'\n  /** Pre-rendered markdown — drop into a paper or PR. */\n  markdown: string\n}\n\n/**\n * Table 1 helper. Buckets runs by `candidateId`, computes mean +\n * bootstrap CI on the chosen split, and (when a comparator is given)\n * BH-adjusted Wilcoxon p + Cohen's d versus that comparator.\n */\nexport function summaryTable(runs: RunRecord[], opts: SummaryTableOptions = {}): SummaryTable {\n  const split = opts.split ?? 'holdout'\n  const confidence = opts.confidence ?? 0.95\n  const fdr = opts.fdr ?? 0.05\n  const comparator = opts.comparator ?? null\n  const scoreField = split === 'holdout' ? 'holdoutScore' : 'searchScore'\n\n  const byCandidate = new Map<string, { runs: RunRecord[]; scores: number[] }>()\n  for (const r of runs) {\n    if (r.splitTag !== split) continue\n    const v = r.outcome[scoreField]\n    if (typeof v !== 'number' || !Number.isFinite(v)) continue\n    const bucket = byCandidate.get(r.candidateId) ?? { runs: [], scores: [] }\n    bucket.runs.push(r)\n    bucket.scores.push(v)\n    byCandidate.set(r.candidateId, bucket)\n  }\n\n  const candidateIds = [...byCandidate.keys()].sort()\n  const compRuns = comparator ? byCandidate.get(comparator) : undefined\n\n  // First pass: per-candidate means + CIs + raw p-values.\n  const tentative: Array<SummaryTableRow & { rawP: number }> = []\n  for (const id of candidateIds) {\n    const bucket = byCandidate.get(id)!\n    const ci = confidenceInterval(bucket.scores, confidence)\n    let rawP = Number.NaN\n    let d = Number.NaN\n    if (comparator && compRuns && id !== comparator) {\n      const paired = pairScoresByKey(bucket.runs, compRuns.runs, scoreField)\n      if (paired.before.length >= 6) {\n        rawP = wilcoxonSignedRank(paired.before, paired.after).p\n      }\n      d = cohensD(compRuns.scores, bucket.scores)\n    }\n    tentative.push({\n      candidateId: id,\n      n: bucket.scores.length,\n      mean: ci.mean,\n      ciLow: ci.lower,\n      ciHigh: ci.upper,\n      qValue: rawP,\n      cohensD: d,\n      rawP,\n    })\n  }\n\n  // BH-adjust across the comparison set (skip NaN rows / the\n  // comparator itself). Adjustment is a no-op when there are 0 or 1\n  // comparators.\n  if (comparator) {\n    const idxs: number[] = []\n    const ps: number[] = []\n    for (let i = 0; i < tentative.length; i++) {\n      const r = tentative[i]!\n      if (r.candidateId === comparator) continue\n      if (!Number.isFinite(r.rawP)) continue\n      idxs.push(i)\n      ps.push(r.rawP)\n    }\n    if (ps.length > 0) {\n      const { qValues } = benjaminiHochberg(ps, fdr)\n      for (let k = 0; k < idxs.length; k++) {\n        tentative[idxs[k]!]!.qValue = qValues[k]!\n      }\n    }\n  }\n\n  const rows = tentative.map(({ rawP: _rawP, ...rest }) => rest)\n  const markdown = renderSummaryTableMarkdown(rows, comparator, split)\n  return { rows, comparator, split, markdown }\n}\n\nfunction pairScoresByKey(\n  candidate: RunRecord[],\n  baseline: RunRecord[],\n  scoreField: 'searchScore' | 'holdoutScore',\n): { before: number[]; after: number[] } {\n  const baseIdx = new Map<string, number>()\n  for (const r of baseline) {\n    const v = r.outcome[scoreField]\n    if (typeof v === 'number' && Number.isFinite(v)) {\n      baseIdx.set(`${r.experimentId}::${r.seed}`, v)\n    }\n  }\n  const before: number[] = []\n  const after: number[] = []\n  for (const r of candidate) {\n    const v = r.outcome[scoreField]\n    if (typeof v !== 'number' || !Number.isFinite(v)) continue\n    const key = `${r.experimentId}::${r.seed}`\n    const b = baseIdx.get(key)\n    if (b === undefined) continue\n    before.push(b)\n    after.push(v)\n  }\n  return { before, after }\n}\n\nfunction renderSummaryTableMarkdown(\n  rows: SummaryTableRow[],\n  comparator: string | null,\n  split: 'search' | 'holdout',\n): string {\n  const lines: string[] = []\n  const cmpLabel = comparator ? ` (vs ${comparator})` : ''\n  lines.push(`Summary Table — ${split} split${cmpLabel}`)\n  lines.push('')\n  lines.push('| Candidate | N | Mean | 95% CI | q (BH) | Cohen\\'s d |')\n  lines.push('|---|---:|---:|---|---:|---:|')\n  for (const r of rows) {\n    const ci = `[${fmt(r.ciLow)}, ${fmt(r.ciHigh)}]`\n    const q = Number.isFinite(r.qValue) ? r.qValue.toFixed(4) : '—'\n    const d = Number.isFinite(r.cohensD) ? r.cohensD.toFixed(3) : '—'\n    lines.push(`| ${r.candidateId} | ${r.n} | ${fmt(r.mean)} | ${ci} | ${q} | ${d} |`)\n  }\n  return lines.join('\\n')\n}\n\n// ── paretoChart ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────\n\nexport interface ParetoPoint {\n  candidateId: string\n  /** Mean USD cost per run on the chosen split. */\n  cost: number\n  /** Mean score on the chosen split. */\n  quality: number\n  /** Number of runs that informed this point. */\n  n: number\n  /** Whether this candidate is on the Pareto frontier — high\n   *  quality, low cost, no dominator. */\n  onFrontier: boolean\n  /** Optional gate verdict for this candidate, if a `GateDecision`\n   *  for it was passed in. */\n  gate?: 'promote' | 'reject_few_runs' | 'reject_negative_delta' | 'reject_overfit_gap' | null\n}\n\nexport interface ParetoFigureSpec {\n  kind: 'pareto-cost-quality'\n  split: 'search' | 'holdout'\n  points: ParetoPoint[]\n  axes: { x: 'costUsd'; y: 'score' }\n}\n\n/**\n * Cost vs quality scatter spec. `gateDecisions` is keyed by\n * candidate id; if present, every point picks up the gate verdict\n * for overlay.\n */\nexport function paretoChart(\n  runs: RunRecord[],\n  opts: {\n    split?: 'search' | 'holdout'\n    gateDecisions?: Record<string, GateDecision>\n  } = {},\n): ParetoFigureSpec {\n  const split = opts.split ?? 'holdout'\n  const scoreField = split === 'holdout' ? 'holdoutScore' : 'searchScore'\n\n  const buckets = new Map<string, { cost: number[]; quality: number[] }>()\n  for (const r of runs) {\n    if (r.splitTag !== split) continue\n    const v = r.outcome[scoreField]\n    if (typeof v !== 'number' || !Number.isFinite(v)) continue\n    const bucket = buckets.get(r.candidateId) ?? { cost: [], quality: [] }\n    bucket.cost.push(r.costUsd)\n    bucket.quality.push(v)\n    buckets.set(r.candidateId, bucket)\n  }\n\n  const points: ParetoPoint[] = []\n  for (const [candidateId, bucket] of buckets.entries()) {\n    points.push({\n      candidateId,\n      cost: avg(bucket.cost),\n      quality: avg(bucket.quality),\n      n: bucket.cost.length,\n      onFrontier: false,\n      gate: opts.gateDecisions?.[candidateId]\n        ? gateLabel(opts.gateDecisions[candidateId]!)\n        : undefined,\n    })\n  }\n\n  // Pareto: minimize cost, maximize quality. A point is dominated if\n  // some other point has lower-or-equal cost AND higher-or-equal\n  // quality with strict inequality somewhere.\n  for (const p of points) {\n    p.onFrontier = !points.some((q) => q !== p && dominates(q, p))\n  }\n\n  return {\n    kind: 'pareto-cost-quality',\n    split,\n    axes: { x: 'costUsd', y: 'score' },\n    points,\n  }\n}\n\nfunction dominates(a: ParetoPoint, b: ParetoPoint): boolean {\n  return a.cost <= b.cost && a.quality >= b.quality && (a.cost < b.cost || a.quality > b.quality)\n}\n\nfunction gateLabel(d: GateDecision): ParetoPoint['gate'] {\n  if (d.promote) return 'promote'\n  if (d.rejectionCode === 'few_runs') return 'reject_few_runs'\n  if (d.rejectionCode === 'negative_delta') return 'reject_negative_delta'\n  if (d.rejectionCode === 'overfit_gap') return 'reject_overfit_gap'\n  return null\n}\n\n// ── gainHistogram ───────────────────────────────────────────\n\nexport interface GainDistributionBin {\n  /** Inclusive lower edge. */\n  lo: number\n  /** Exclusive upper edge (or inclusive if it's the last bin). */\n  hi: number\n  /** Number of pairs whose delta lands in this bin. */\n  count: number\n}\n\nexport interface GainDistributionFigureSpec {\n  kind: 'gain-distribution'\n  candidateId: string\n  comparator: string\n  split: 'search' | 'holdout'\n  /** Number of pairs used. */\n  n: number\n  bins: GainDistributionBin[]\n  median: number\n  ci: { low: number; high: number }\n}\n\nexport interface GainDistributionOptions {\n  /** Number of histogram bins. Default 11 (so the centre is exact at 0). */\n  bins?: number\n  /** Which split to use. Default 'holdout'. */\n  split?: 'search' | 'holdout'\n  /** Confidence level for the CI. Default 0.95. */\n  confidence?: number\n  /** Bootstrap resamples. Default 2000. */\n  resamples?: number\n  /** Deterministic seed. */\n  seed?: number\n}\n\n/**\n * Held-out improvement distribution: per-pair delta (candidate −\n * comparator), histogrammed. Includes the bootstrap CI on the median\n * delta — same primitive the promotion gate uses.\n */\nexport function gainHistogram(\n  runs: RunRecord[],\n  candidateId: string,\n  comparator: string,\n  opts: GainDistributionOptions = {},\n): GainDistributionFigureSpec {\n  const split = opts.split ?? 'holdout'\n  const scoreField = split === 'holdout' ? 'holdoutScore' : 'searchScore'\n  const binCount = opts.bins ?? 11\n  if (binCount < 1) throw new Error('gainHistogram: bins must be ≥ 1')\n\n  const candidate = runs.filter((r) => r.candidateId === candidateId && r.splitTag === split)\n  const baseline = runs.filter((r) => r.candidateId === comparator && r.splitTag === split)\n  // pairScoresByKey returns before=baseline-score, after=candidate-score\n  // for each (experimentId, seed) pair where both sides recorded a\n  // valid score on this split. delta = after - before = candidate - baseline.\n  const { before, after } = pairScoresByKey(candidate, baseline, scoreField)\n  const n = before.length\n\n  if (n === 0) {\n    return {\n      kind: 'gain-distribution',\n      candidateId,\n      comparator,\n      split,\n      n: 0,\n      bins: [],\n      median: 0,\n      ci: { low: 0, high: 0 },\n    }\n  }\n\n  const deltas = before.map((b, i) => after[i]! - b)\n  const sortedDeltas = [...deltas].sort((a, b) => a - b)\n  const median = medianOfSorted(sortedDeltas)\n  const min = sortedDeltas[0]!\n  const max = sortedDeltas[sortedDeltas.length - 1]!\n\n  // Symmetric bins around the wider of (|min|, |max|) so the chart\n  // visually centres on zero without dropping outliers.\n  const bound = Math.max(Math.abs(min), Math.abs(max), 1e-6)\n  const lo = -bound\n  const hi = bound\n  const width = (hi - lo) / binCount\n  const bins: GainDistributionBin[] = []\n  for (let i = 0; i < binCount; i++) {\n    bins.push({ lo: lo + i * width, hi: lo + (i + 1) * width, count: 0 })\n  }\n  for (const d of deltas) {\n    let idx = Math.floor((d - lo) / width)\n    if (idx < 0) idx = 0\n    if (idx >= binCount) idx = binCount - 1\n    bins[idx]!.count += 1\n  }\n\n  const ci = pairedBootstrap(before, after, {\n    confidence: opts.confidence ?? 0.95,\n    resamples: opts.resamples ?? 2000,\n    statistic: 'median',\n    seed: opts.seed,\n  })\n\n  return {\n    kind: 'gain-distribution',\n    candidateId,\n    comparator,\n    split,\n    n,\n    bins,\n    median,\n    ci: { low: ci.low, high: ci.high },\n  }\n}\n\n// ── researchReport ───────────────────────────────────────────────────\n\nexport type ResearchReportDecision =\n  | 'promote'\n  | 'hold'\n  | 'reject'\n  | 'equivalent'\n  | 'needs_more_data'\n\n/**\n * Hard floor below which a paired comparison is treated as uninformative\n * regardless of `minPairs`. Mirrors the lower limit on Wilcoxon signed-rank\n * exact tables; below this the test has no power to separate effect sizes.\n */\nexport const RESEARCH_REPORT_HARD_PAIR_FLOOR = 6\n\nexport interface ResearchReportOptions {\n  /** Human-readable report title. */\n  title?: string\n  /** Comparator candidate id. Required for statistical decision guidance. */\n  comparator?: string\n  /** Which split to use for the primary decision. Default 'holdout'. */\n  split?: 'search' | 'holdout'\n  /** Confidence level used by lower-level report helpers. Default 0.95. */\n  confidence?: number\n  /** FDR threshold for q-values. Default 0.05. */\n  fdr?: number\n  /**\n   * Soft floor on paired observations before issuing a directional\n   * promote / reject. Below this we report `needs_more_data` and surface the\n   * minimum detectable effect at the current N. Default 20 — chosen so the\n   * Wilcoxon signed-rank approximation is reasonable and so the paired\n   * bootstrap CI has non-degenerate coverage. Hard floor is enforced at\n   * `RESEARCH_REPORT_HARD_PAIR_FLOOR` (6) regardless of this value.\n   */\n  minPairs?: number\n  /**\n   * Region of Practical Equivalence on the paired delta. When a candidate's\n   * paired-delta CI is fully contained in `[low, high]`, the decision is\n   * `equivalent` rather than `hold`. Sourced from the domain owner — there is\n   * no statistically-defensible default.\n   */\n  rope?: { low: number; high: number }\n  /**\n   * Power for the minimum detectable effect (MDE) reported on each candidate.\n   * Default 0.8.\n   */\n  mdePower?: number\n  /**\n   * Two-sided alpha for the MDE. Default matches `fdr` so the reported MDE\n   * lines up with the test the report actually runs.\n   */\n  mdeAlpha?: number\n  /** Optional held-out gate decisions keyed by candidate id. */\n  gateDecisions?: Record<string, GateDecision>\n  /** Optional failure clusters from failureClusterView. */\n  failureClusters?: FailureClusterReport\n  /** Build gain histograms for these candidates. Defaults to all non-comparator candidates. */\n  candidateIds?: string[]\n  /** Deterministic bootstrap seed passed to gainHistogram and the posterior helper. */\n  seed?: number\n  /** Report timestamp. Defaults to current time. */\n  generatedAt?: string\n  /**\n   * Hash of a preregistered protocol (e.g. `signManifest({...}).contentHash`).\n   * Embedded verbatim in the report so the analysis can be cited as the\n   * preregistered one rather than a post-hoc fishing expedition.\n   */\n  preregistrationHash?: string\n}\n\nexport interface ResearchReportRecommendation {\n  decision: ResearchReportDecision\n  candidateId: string | null\n  rationale: string[]\n  risks: string[]\n  nextActions: string[]\n}\n\nexport interface ResearchReportCandidate {\n  candidateId: string\n  n: number\n  mean: number\n  ciLow: number\n  ciHigh: number\n  qValue: number\n  cohensD: number\n  meanDeltaVsComparator: number | null\n  pairedN: number\n  medianGain: number | null\n  meanGain: number | null\n  gainCi: { low: number; high: number } | null\n  /**\n   * Bayesian-bootstrap-style posterior summaries on the paired delta. Computed\n   * from the same resamples that produce the gain CI; interpretable as\n   * \"fraction of resamples in which the candidate beats the comparator on\n   * matched pairs.\"\n   */\n  prGreaterThanZero: number | null\n  prInRope: number | null\n  /**\n   * Minimum detectable effect (in score units) at the candidate's paired N,\n   * the configured power, and the configured alpha. Standardised by the\n   * observed paired-delta SD and inverted via `requiredSampleSize`. Reported\n   * for every candidate so a `needs_more_data` verdict is actionable.\n   */\n  mde: number | null\n  onParetoFrontier: boolean\n  gate?: ParetoPoint['gate']\n  decision: ResearchReportDecision\n  decisionReason: string\n}\n\nexport interface ResearchReportMethodology {\n  /**\n   * Plain-language assumptions the report depends on. Read these first when\n   * deciding whether the verdict is load-bearing for a launch decision.\n   */\n  assumptions: string[]\n  /** Tests and estimators the verdict was computed from. */\n  methods: string[]\n  /** Alternatives the author considered and why this report didn't take them. */\n  alternatives: string[]\n  /** Failure modes — when this report should NOT drive a decision. */\n  whenNotToApply: string[]\n  /** Citations for the methodological choices above. */\n  citations: string[]\n}\n\nexport interface ResearchReport {\n  kind: 'agent-eval-research-report'\n  title: string\n  generatedAt: string\n  split: 'search' | 'holdout'\n  comparator: string | null\n  /**\n   * SHA-256 over the canonicalised set of `(runId, candidateId, split)` triples\n   * the report was computed from, plus the comparator and split. Stable across\n   * key insertion order; recomputable by the reader to verify provenance.\n   */\n  runFingerprint: string\n  preregistrationHash: string | null\n  rope: { low: number; high: number } | null\n  executiveSummary: string[]\n  recommendation: ResearchReportRecommendation\n  candidates: ResearchReportCandidate[]\n  summary: SummaryTable\n  charts: {\n    pareto: ParetoFigureSpec\n    gains: GainDistributionFigureSpec[]\n  }\n  methodology: ResearchReportMethodology\n  failureClusters?: FailureClusterReport\n  markdown: string\n  html: string\n}\n\n/**\n * Internal: paired posterior summary on (candidate − comparator) deltas.\n *\n * Returns the bootstrap CI on the median (matching `gainHistogram`) plus\n * Bayesian-flavoured posterior summaries Pr(Δ>0) and Pr(Δ∈ROPE) computed\n * from a Bayesian-bootstrap-flavoured resample distribution on the mean\n * (Rubin 1981 — non-informative bootstrap-prior duality), and the\n * minimum detectable paired effect at the configured power and α.\n *\n * `null` is returned when no paired observations exist; callers must\n * gate on `n` before consuming the bootstrap statistics.\n */\nfunction pairedPosterior(\n  runs: RunRecord[],\n  candidateId: string,\n  comparator: string,\n  opts: {\n    split: 'search' | 'holdout'\n    confidence: number\n    seed?: number\n    rope: { low: number; high: number } | null\n    mdePower: number\n    mdeAlpha: number\n  },\n): {\n  n: number\n  meanDelta: number\n  medianDelta: number\n  sdDelta: number\n  ci: { low: number; high: number }\n  prGreaterThanZero: number\n  prInRope: number | null\n  mde: number\n} | null {\n  const scoreField = opts.split === 'holdout' ? 'holdoutScore' : 'searchScore'\n  const candidate = runs.filter((r) => r.candidateId === candidateId && r.splitTag === opts.split)\n  const baseline = runs.filter((r) => r.candidateId === comparator && r.splitTag === opts.split)\n  const { before, after } = pairScoresByKey(candidate, baseline, scoreField)\n  const n = before.length\n  if (n === 0) return null\n\n  const deltas = before.map((b, i) => after[i]! - b)\n  const meanDelta = deltas.reduce((s, x) => s + x, 0) / n\n  const sortedDeltas = [...deltas].sort((a, b) => a - b)\n  const medianDelta = medianOfSorted(sortedDeltas)\n  const sdDelta = stdev(deltas, meanDelta)\n\n  const ci = pairedBootstrap(before, after, {\n    confidence: opts.confidence,\n    resamples: 2000,\n    statistic: 'median',\n    seed: opts.seed,\n  })\n\n  // Enumerate bootstrap-mean samples to derive posterior summaries on the\n  // mean delta. Same RNG family as `pairedBootstrap` but kept local so we can\n  // examine the full sample distribution rather than just quantiles.\n  const meanSamples = bootstrapMeanSamples(deltas, 2000, opts.seed)\n  const prGreaterThanZero = meanSamples.length === 0\n    ? 0\n    : meanSamples.filter((s) => s > 0).length / meanSamples.length\n  const prInRope = opts.rope === null || meanSamples.length === 0\n    ? null\n    : meanSamples.filter((s) => s >= opts.rope!.low && s <= opts.rope!.high).length / meanSamples.length\n\n  const dStandardised = pairedMde({ nPaired: n, alpha: opts.mdeAlpha, power: opts.mdePower })\n  const mde = sdDelta === 0 ? 0 : dStandardised * sdDelta\n\n  return {\n    n,\n    meanDelta,\n    medianDelta,\n    sdDelta,\n    ci: { low: ci.low, high: ci.high },\n    prGreaterThanZero,\n    prInRope,\n    mde,\n  }\n}\n\nfunction bootstrapMeanSamples(deltas: number[], resamples: number, seed?: number): number[] {\n  const n = deltas.length\n  if (n === 0) return []\n  if (n === 1) return new Array<number>(resamples).fill(deltas[0]!)\n  const rng = seedRng(seed)\n  const samples = new Array<number>(resamples)\n  for (let b = 0; b < resamples; b++) {\n    let sum = 0\n    for (let k = 0; k < n; k++) sum += deltas[Math.floor(rng() * n)]!\n    samples[b] = sum / n\n  }\n  return samples\n}\n\nfunction seedRng(seed?: number): () => number {\n  if (seed === undefined) return Math.random\n  let s = seed >>> 0\n  return () => {\n    s = (s + 0x6D2B79F5) >>> 0\n    let t = s\n    t = Math.imul(t ^ (t >>> 15), t | 1)\n    t ^= t + Math.imul(t ^ (t >>> 7), t | 61)\n    return ((t ^ (t >>> 14)) >>> 0) / 4294967296\n  }\n}\n\nfunction stdev(xs: number[], mean: number): number {\n  if (xs.length < 2) return 0\n  let sse = 0\n  for (const x of xs) sse += (x - mean) ** 2\n  return Math.sqrt(sse / (xs.length - 1))\n}\n\n/**\n * Executive research report for CPO / AI-lead / launch-review consumption.\n *\n * Composes:\n *   - `summaryTable`         marginal stats with BH-FDR-adjusted q-values\n *   - `paretoChart`           cost-vs-quality frontier with gate overlay\n *   - `gainHistogram`         per-candidate paired-delta distribution\n *   - paired posterior (this file): bootstrap CI on median, Pr(Δ>0),\n *                              Pr(Δ∈ROPE), MDE at the configured power\n *\n * Decisions are made on paired evidence — never on marginal means alone —\n * and respect any held-out gate decision the caller passes through. The\n * report embeds a SHA-256 fingerprint of the input run set and, optionally,\n * the hash of a preregistered protocol so a downstream reader can verify\n * provenance and that the analysis was the preregistered one.\n *\n * Async because the fingerprint uses Web Crypto via `hashJson`; deterministic\n * for any fixed `runs`, `seed`, and ROPE.\n */\nexport async function researchReport(runs: RunRecord[], opts: ResearchReportOptions = {}): Promise<ResearchReport> {\n  const split = opts.split ?? 'holdout'\n  const comparator = opts.comparator ?? null\n  const confidence = opts.confidence ?? 0.95\n  const fdr = opts.fdr ?? 0.05\n  const minPairs = Math.max(opts.minPairs ?? 20, RESEARCH_REPORT_HARD_PAIR_FLOOR)\n  const rope = opts.rope ?? null\n  const mdePower = opts.mdePower ?? 0.8\n  const mdeAlpha = opts.mdeAlpha ?? fdr\n  const title = opts.title ?? 'Agent Evaluation Research Report'\n  const generatedAt = opts.generatedAt ?? new Date().toISOString()\n  const preregistrationHash = opts.preregistrationHash ?? null\n\n  if (rope && !(Number.isFinite(rope.low) && Number.isFinite(rope.high) && rope.low <= rope.high)) {\n    throw new Error(`researchReport: rope must satisfy low ≤ high with finite bounds, got ${JSON.stringify(rope)}`)\n  }\n\n  const summary = summaryTable(runs, {\n    comparator: comparator ?? undefined,\n    split,\n    confidence,\n    fdr,\n  })\n  const pareto = paretoChart(runs, { split, gateDecisions: opts.gateDecisions })\n  const candidateIds = opts.candidateIds\n    ?? summary.rows.map((r) => r.candidateId).filter((id) => id !== comparator)\n  const gains = comparator\n    ? candidateIds.map((id) => gainHistogram(runs, id, comparator, {\n      split,\n      confidence,\n      seed: opts.seed,\n    }))\n    : []\n\n  const gainByCandidate = new Map(gains.map((g) => [g.candidateId, g]))\n  const paretoByCandidate = new Map(pareto.points.map((p) => [p.candidateId, p]))\n  const posteriorByCandidate = new Map<string, ReturnType<typeof pairedPosterior>>()\n  if (comparator) {\n    for (const id of candidateIds) {\n      posteriorByCandidate.set(id, pairedPosterior(runs, id, comparator, {\n        split,\n        confidence,\n        seed: opts.seed,\n        rope,\n        mdePower,\n        mdeAlpha,\n      }))\n    }\n  }\n\n  const candidates = summary.rows\n    .map((row) => {\n      const gain = gainByCandidate.get(row.candidateId)\n      const point = paretoByCandidate.get(row.candidateId)\n      const posterior = posteriorByCandidate.get(row.candidateId) ?? null\n      const classified = classifyCandidate(row, {\n        comparator,\n        posterior,\n        point,\n        fdr,\n        minPairs,\n        rope,\n      })\n      return {\n        candidateId: row.candidateId,\n        n: row.n,\n        mean: row.mean,\n        ciLow: row.ciLow,\n        ciHigh: row.ciHigh,\n        qValue: row.qValue,\n        cohensD: row.cohensD,\n        meanDeltaVsComparator: posterior ? posterior.meanDelta : null,\n        pairedN: posterior?.n ?? gain?.n ?? 0,\n        medianGain: posterior ? posterior.medianDelta : (gain ? gain.median : null),\n        meanGain: posterior ? posterior.meanDelta : null,\n        gainCi: posterior ? posterior.ci : (gain ? gain.ci : null),\n        prGreaterThanZero: posterior ? posterior.prGreaterThanZero : null,\n        prInRope: posterior ? posterior.prInRope : null,\n        mde: posterior ? posterior.mde : null,\n        onParetoFrontier: point?.onFrontier ?? false,\n        gate: point?.gate,\n        decision: classified.decision,\n        decisionReason: classified.reason,\n      } satisfies ResearchReportCandidate\n    })\n    .sort((a, b) => {\n      const decisionRank = decisionWeight(b.decision) - decisionWeight(a.decision)\n      if (decisionRank !== 0) return decisionRank\n      return b.mean - a.mean\n    })\n\n  const recommendation = buildRecommendation(candidates, {\n    comparator,\n    failureClusters: opts.failureClusters,\n    rope,\n    minPairs,\n    preregistrationHash,\n  })\n  const executiveSummary = buildExecutiveSummary(candidates, recommendation, {\n    comparator,\n    split,\n    failureClusters: opts.failureClusters,\n    preregistrationHash,\n  })\n  const methodology = buildMethodology({ split, comparator, fdr, minPairs, rope, confidence, mdePower, mdeAlpha })\n\n  const runFingerprint = await hashJson(canonicalize({\n    triples: runs\n      .filter((r) => r.splitTag === split)\n      .map((r) => ({ runId: r.runId, candidateId: r.candidateId, splitTag: r.splitTag }))\n      .sort((a, b) => a.runId.localeCompare(b.runId)),\n    comparator,\n    split,\n  }))\n\n  const markdown = renderResearchMarkdown({\n    title,\n    generatedAt,\n    split,\n    comparator,\n    rope,\n    runFingerprint,\n    preregistrationHash,\n    executiveSummary,\n    recommendation,\n    candidates,\n    summary,\n    pareto,\n    gains,\n    methodology,\n    failureClusters: opts.failureClusters,\n  })\n  const html = renderResearchHtml(markdown, title)\n\n  return {\n    kind: 'agent-eval-research-report',\n    title,\n    generatedAt,\n    split,\n    comparator,\n    runFingerprint,\n    preregistrationHash,\n    rope,\n    executiveSummary,\n    recommendation,\n    candidates,\n    summary,\n    charts: { pareto, gains },\n    methodology,\n    failureClusters: opts.failureClusters,\n    markdown,\n    html,\n  }\n}\n\nfunction buildMethodology(ctx: {\n  split: 'search' | 'holdout'\n  comparator: string | null\n  fdr: number\n  minPairs: number\n  rope: { low: number; high: number } | null\n  confidence: number\n  mdePower: number\n  mdeAlpha: number\n}): ResearchReportMethodology {\n  const assumptions: string[] = [\n    'Pairs are matched by (experimentId, seed); the candidate and comparator see the same scenarios in the same order.',\n    'Paired deltas are exchangeable conditional on the matched scenario — no mid-run distribution shift.',\n    `Decisions are pre-specified at fdr=${ctx.fdr}, minPairs=${ctx.minPairs}, confidence=${ctx.confidence}; deviating from these post-hoc invalidates the false-discovery control.`,\n  ]\n  if (ctx.rope) {\n    assumptions.push(`The Region of Practical Equivalence ${formatRope(ctx.rope)} is supplied by the domain owner; equivalent verdicts are only meaningful if that range is treated as the standing definition of \"no material difference.\"`)\n  }\n  if (ctx.comparator === null) {\n    assumptions.push('No comparator was configured; this run is descriptive, not causal.')\n  }\n  const methods: string[] = [\n    'Marginal scores summarised with BH-FDR-adjusted Wilcoxon signed-rank q-values and Cohen\\'s d via summaryTable.',\n    'Paired evidence summarised with bootstrap CI on the median delta and Bayesian-bootstrap-style Pr(Δ>0) and Pr(Δ∈ROPE) on the mean delta.',\n    `Minimum detectable effect reported per candidate at α=${ctx.mdeAlpha} (two-sided), power=${ctx.mdePower}, standardised by the observed paired-delta SD.`,\n    'Pareto frontier flagged as a separate axis (cost vs quality); a candidate can be on-frontier without winning the paired test.',\n    'Held-out gate decisions, when supplied, override the statistical verdict in the reject direction.',\n  ]\n  const alternatives: string[] = [\n    'Paired t-test rejected: not robust to the heavy-tailed score distributions common in agent benchmarks.',\n    'Unpaired Mann–Whitney rejected: matched scenarios make pairing free; unpaired throws away that variance reduction.',\n    'Sequential / always-valid inference (e-values, mSPRT) is the right tool for iterative sweeps and is out of scope for this single-look report — preregister and run once, or wrap this report in an alpha-spending schedule.',\n    'Hierarchical Bayesian shrinkage across many candidates is future work; the current ranking uses raw paired statistics.',\n  ]\n  const whenNotToApply: string[] = [\n    `Paired N below ${RESEARCH_REPORT_HARD_PAIR_FLOOR} on any candidate — the bootstrap CI is degenerate.`,\n    'Comparator chosen post-hoc by inspecting the same data; q-values are no longer false-discovery-controlled.',\n    'Scenarios not drawn under a stable preregistered protocol; the report can describe the data but cannot anchor a launch decision.',\n    'Score distributions with mid-run shift (judge model swap, rubric change, infra outage) — pair exchangeability is violated.',\n  ]\n  const citations: string[] = [\n    'Benjamini, Y. & Hochberg, Y. (1995). Controlling the false discovery rate: a practical and powerful approach to multiple testing. JRSS B, 57(1), 289–300.',\n    'Wilcoxon, F. (1945). Individual comparisons by ranking methods. Biometrics Bulletin, 1(6), 80–83.',\n    'Efron, B. (1979). Bootstrap methods: another look at the jackknife. Annals of Statistics, 7(1), 1–26.',\n    'Rubin, D. B. (1981). The Bayesian bootstrap. Annals of Statistics, 9(1), 130–134.',\n    'Kruschke, J. K. (2018). Rejecting or accepting parameter values in Bayesian estimation. Advances in Methods and Practices in Psychological Science, 1(2), 270–280. (ROPE.)',\n  ]\n  return { assumptions, methods, alternatives, whenNotToApply, citations }\n}\n\nfunction formatRope(rope: { low: number; high: number }): string {\n  return `[${fmt(rope.low)}, ${fmt(rope.high)}]`\n}\n\nfunction classifyCandidate(\n  row: SummaryTableRow,\n  ctx: {\n    comparator: string | null\n    posterior: ReturnType<typeof pairedPosterior> | null\n    point?: ParetoPoint\n    fdr: number\n    minPairs: number\n    rope: { low: number; high: number } | null\n  },\n): { decision: ResearchReportDecision; reason: string } {\n  if (ctx.comparator && row.candidateId === ctx.comparator) {\n    return { decision: 'hold', reason: 'Comparator baseline.' }\n  }\n  if (!ctx.comparator) {\n    return {\n      decision: ctx.point?.onFrontier ? 'hold' : 'needs_more_data',\n      reason: 'No comparator configured; report ranks candidates but cannot anchor a promotion call.',\n    }\n  }\n  // Held-out gate is authoritative against — promote requires statistical\n  // evidence even if the gate said `promote` (gate is necessary, not sufficient).\n  if (ctx.point?.gate && ctx.point.gate !== 'promote') {\n    return { decision: 'reject', reason: `Held-out gate returned ${ctx.point.gate}.` }\n  }\n  if (!ctx.posterior || ctx.posterior.n < RESEARCH_REPORT_HARD_PAIR_FLOOR) {\n    return {\n      decision: 'needs_more_data',\n      reason: `Only ${ctx.posterior?.n ?? 0} paired observations; below hard floor of ${RESEARCH_REPORT_HARD_PAIR_FLOOR} for any paired inference.`,\n    }\n  }\n  const ci = ctx.posterior.ci\n  if (ctx.rope && ci.low >= ctx.rope.low && ci.high <= ctx.rope.high) {\n    return {\n      decision: 'equivalent',\n      reason: `Paired-delta CI [${fmt(ci.low)}, ${fmt(ci.high)}] is fully inside ROPE ${formatRope(ctx.rope)}; candidate is practically equivalent to comparator.`,\n    }\n  }\n  const significant = Number.isFinite(row.qValue) && row.qValue <= ctx.fdr\n  const gainPositive = ci.low > 0\n  const gainNegative = ci.high < 0\n  if (gainNegative) {\n    return { decision: 'reject', reason: `Paired-delta CI [${fmt(ci.low)}, ${fmt(ci.high)}] lies entirely below zero.` }\n  }\n  if (ctx.posterior.n < ctx.minPairs) {\n    return {\n      decision: 'needs_more_data',\n      reason: `Only ${ctx.posterior.n} paired observations; minimum detectable effect at this N is ${fmt(ctx.posterior.mde)} score units (need ≥ ${ctx.minPairs} pairs to issue a directional verdict).`,\n    }\n  }\n  if (significant && gainPositive) {\n    return {\n      decision: 'promote',\n      reason: `BH-adjusted q=${fmt(row.qValue)} ≤ ${ctx.fdr} and paired-delta CI [${fmt(ci.low)}, ${fmt(ci.high)}] excludes zero; Pr(Δ>0)=${fmt(ctx.posterior.prGreaterThanZero)}.`,\n    }\n  }\n  return {\n    decision: 'hold',\n    reason: `Pr(Δ>0)=${fmt(ctx.posterior.prGreaterThanZero)} but CI [${fmt(ci.low)}, ${fmt(ci.high)}] crosses zero; effect not decisive at fdr=${ctx.fdr}.`,\n  }\n}\n\nfunction buildRecommendation(\n  candidates: ResearchReportCandidate[],\n  ctx: {\n    comparator: string | null\n    failureClusters?: FailureClusterReport\n    rope: { low: number; high: number } | null\n    minPairs: number\n    preregistrationHash: string | null\n  },\n): ResearchReportRecommendation {\n  const nonComparator = candidates.filter((c) => c.candidateId !== ctx.comparator)\n  const bestPromote = nonComparator.find((c) => c.decision === 'promote')\n  const bestEquivalent = nonComparator.find((c) => c.decision === 'equivalent')\n  const chosen = bestPromote ?? bestEquivalent ?? nonComparator[0] ?? null\n  const decision: ResearchReportDecision = bestPromote\n    ? 'promote'\n    : nonComparator.some((c) => c.decision === 'needs_more_data')\n      ? 'needs_more_data'\n      : bestEquivalent\n        ? 'equivalent'\n        : nonComparator.some((c) => c.decision === 'hold')\n          ? 'hold'\n          : 'reject'\n\n  const rationale: string[] = []\n  const risks: string[] = []\n  const nextActions: string[] = []\n\n  if (chosen) {\n    rationale.push(`${chosen.candidateId}: ${chosen.decisionReason}`)\n    if (chosen.gainCi) {\n      const probSummary = chosen.prGreaterThanZero !== null\n        ? `, Pr(Δ>0)=${fmt(chosen.prGreaterThanZero)}`\n        : ''\n      rationale.push(`Median paired gain CI: [${fmt(chosen.gainCi.low)}, ${fmt(chosen.gainCi.high)}]${probSummary}.`)\n    }\n    if (chosen.mde !== null && Number.isFinite(chosen.mde)) {\n      rationale.push(`MDE at current paired N=${chosen.pairedN}: ${fmt(chosen.mde)} score units.`)\n    }\n  }\n  if (!ctx.comparator) {\n    risks.push('No comparator was configured; verdict is descriptive, not causal.')\n    nextActions.push('Re-run with a stable comparator candidate for paired inference.')\n  }\n  if (!ctx.preregistrationHash) {\n    risks.push('No preregistration hash supplied; readers cannot verify the analysis was specified before data inspection.')\n    nextActions.push('Sign a HypothesisManifest before the next sweep and pass `preregistrationHash` so the report cites it.')\n  }\n  if (ctx.rope === null && nonComparator.length > 0) {\n    risks.push('No ROPE configured; the report cannot distinguish \"equivalent\" from \"inconclusive\".')\n    nextActions.push('Define a domain-specific Region of Practical Equivalence and pass it to lock in the equivalence threshold.')\n  }\n  const inconclusive = nonComparator.filter((c) => c.decision === 'needs_more_data')\n  if (inconclusive.length > 0) {\n    const worst = inconclusive.reduce((a, b) => (b.pairedN < a.pairedN ? b : a))\n    risks.push(`${inconclusive.length} candidate(s) below soft floor (${ctx.minPairs} pairs); thinnest is ${worst.candidateId} with ${worst.pairedN}.`)\n    nextActions.push(`Collect at least ${ctx.minPairs - worst.pairedN} more matched holdout runs for ${worst.candidateId}.`)\n  }\n  const rejected = nonComparator.filter((c) => c.decision === 'reject')\n  if (rejected.length > 0) {\n    risks.push(`${rejected.length} candidate(s) failed the paired test or held-out gate; do not ship those variants.`)\n  }\n  if (ctx.failureClusters && ctx.failureClusters.clusters.length > 0) {\n    const top = ctx.failureClusters.clusters[0]!\n    risks.push(`Top failure cluster: ${top.failureClass} across ${top.runCount} run(s).`)\n    nextActions.push('Prioritize the largest failure cluster before broad rollout.')\n  }\n  if (decision === 'promote') {\n    nextActions.push('Ship behind the existing promotion gate and monitor canaries.')\n  } else if (decision === 'hold') {\n    nextActions.push('Keep current production candidate while expanding holdout evidence.')\n  } else if (decision === 'equivalent') {\n    nextActions.push('Either keep the comparator (no quality regression) or promote on cost/latency grounds — equivalence does not justify either; the choice is a product decision, not a stats one.')\n  } else if (decision === 'reject') {\n    nextActions.push('Do not promote this sweep; inspect failures and generate a revised candidate.')\n  }\n\n  return {\n    decision,\n    candidateId: chosen?.candidateId ?? null,\n    rationale,\n    risks,\n    nextActions,\n  }\n}\n\nfunction buildExecutiveSummary(\n  candidates: ResearchReportCandidate[],\n  recommendation: ResearchReportRecommendation,\n  ctx: {\n    comparator: string | null\n    split: 'search' | 'holdout'\n    failureClusters?: FailureClusterReport\n    preregistrationHash: string | null\n  },\n): string[] {\n  const lines: string[] = []\n  const nonComparator = candidates.filter((c) => c.candidateId !== ctx.comparator)\n  lines.push(`Evaluated ${nonComparator.length} candidate(s) on the ${ctx.split} split${ctx.comparator ? ` against ${ctx.comparator}` : ''}.`)\n  lines.push(`Recommendation: ${recommendation.decision}${recommendation.candidateId ? ` ${recommendation.candidateId}` : ''}.`)\n  const promoted = nonComparator.filter((c) => c.decision === 'promote').length\n  const held = nonComparator.filter((c) => c.decision === 'hold').length\n  const equivalent = nonComparator.filter((c) => c.decision === 'equivalent').length\n  const rejected = nonComparator.filter((c) => c.decision === 'reject').length\n  const more = nonComparator.filter((c) => c.decision === 'needs_more_data').length\n  lines.push(`Decision mix: ${promoted} promote, ${equivalent} equivalent, ${held} hold, ${rejected} reject, ${more} need more data.`)\n  const frontier = nonComparator.filter((c) => c.onParetoFrontier).map((c) => c.candidateId)\n  if (frontier.length > 0) lines.push(`Pareto-frontier candidates: ${frontier.join(', ')}.`)\n  if (ctx.failureClusters) {\n    lines.push(`Failure clustering found ${ctx.failureClusters.totalFailures}/${ctx.failureClusters.totalRuns} failed runs across ${ctx.failureClusters.clusters.length} reportable cluster(s).`)\n  }\n  lines.push(ctx.preregistrationHash\n    ? `Preregistered analysis: ${ctx.preregistrationHash.slice(0, 12)}…`\n    : 'Analysis is post-hoc — no preregistration hash supplied.')\n  return lines\n}\n\nfunction renderResearchMarkdown(report: {\n  title: string\n  generatedAt: string\n  split: 'search' | 'holdout'\n  comparator: string | null\n  executiveSummary: string[]\n  recommendation: ResearchReportRecommendation\n  candidates: ResearchReportCandidate[]\n  summary: SummaryTable\n  pareto: ParetoFigureSpec\n  gains: GainDistributionFigureSpec[]\n  rope: { low: number; high: number } | null\n  runFingerprint: string\n  preregistrationHash: string | null\n  methodology: ResearchReportMethodology\n  failureClusters?: FailureClusterReport\n}): string {\n  const lines: string[] = []\n  lines.push(`# ${report.title}`)\n  lines.push('')\n  lines.push(`**Generated:** ${report.generatedAt}`)\n  lines.push(`**Primary split:** ${report.split}`)\n  lines.push(`**Comparator:** ${report.comparator ?? 'not configured'}`)\n  lines.push(`**ROPE:** ${report.rope ? formatRope(report.rope) : 'not configured'}`)\n  lines.push(`**Run fingerprint:** \\`${report.runFingerprint}\\``)\n  lines.push(`**Preregistration:** ${report.preregistrationHash ? `\\`${report.preregistrationHash}\\`` : 'none'}`)\n  lines.push('')\n  lines.push('## Executive Summary')\n  lines.push('')\n  for (const item of report.executiveSummary) lines.push(`- ${item}`)\n  lines.push('')\n  lines.push('## Recommendation')\n  lines.push('')\n  lines.push(`**Decision:** ${report.recommendation.decision}`)\n  lines.push(`**Candidate:** ${report.recommendation.candidateId ?? 'N/A'}`)\n  lines.push('')\n  lines.push('### Rationale')\n  lines.push('')\n  for (const item of report.recommendation.rationale) lines.push(`- ${item}`)\n  lines.push('')\n  lines.push('### Risks')\n  lines.push('')\n  for (const item of report.recommendation.risks.length ? report.recommendation.risks : ['No material report-level risks detected.']) {\n    lines.push(`- ${item}`)\n  }\n  lines.push('')\n  lines.push('### Next Actions')\n  lines.push('')\n  for (const item of report.recommendation.nextActions) lines.push(`- ${item}`)\n  lines.push('')\n  lines.push('## Candidate Decision Table')\n  lines.push('')\n  lines.push('| Candidate | Decision | Mean | Δ̄ | Pr(Δ>0) | q | d | Paired N | Median Gain CI | MDE | Pareto | Gate |')\n  lines.push('|---|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---|---:|---|---|')\n  for (const c of report.candidates) {\n    const delta = c.meanDeltaVsComparator === null ? '-' : signed(c.meanDeltaVsComparator)\n    const prGt = c.prGreaterThanZero === null ? '-' : c.prGreaterThanZero.toFixed(3)\n    const q = Number.isFinite(c.qValue) ? c.qValue.toFixed(4) : '-'\n    const d = Number.isFinite(c.cohensD) ? c.cohensD.toFixed(3) : '-'\n    const gain = c.gainCi ? `[${fmt(c.gainCi.low)}, ${fmt(c.gainCi.high)}]` : '-'\n    const mde = c.mde === null || !Number.isFinite(c.mde) ? '-' : fmt(c.mde)\n    lines.push(`| ${c.candidateId} | ${c.decision} | ${fmt(c.mean)} | ${delta} | ${prGt} | ${q} | ${d} | ${c.pairedN} | ${gain} | ${mde} | ${c.onParetoFrontier ? 'yes' : 'no'} | ${c.gate ?? '-'} |`)\n  }\n  lines.push('')\n  lines.push('## Statistical Summary')\n  lines.push('')\n  lines.push(report.summary.markdown)\n  lines.push('')\n  lines.push('## Methodology')\n  lines.push('')\n  lines.push('### Assumptions')\n  lines.push('')\n  for (const item of report.methodology.assumptions) lines.push(`- ${item}`)\n  lines.push('')\n  lines.push('### Methods')\n  lines.push('')\n  for (const item of report.methodology.methods) lines.push(`- ${item}`)\n  lines.push('')\n  lines.push('### Alternatives Considered')\n  lines.push('')\n  for (const item of report.methodology.alternatives) lines.push(`- ${item}`)\n  lines.push('')\n  lines.push('### When NOT To Apply')\n  lines.push('')\n  for (const item of report.methodology.whenNotToApply) lines.push(`- ${item}`)\n  lines.push('')\n  lines.push('### Citations')\n  lines.push('')\n  for (const item of report.methodology.citations) lines.push(`- ${item}`)\n  lines.push('')\n  lines.push('## Chart Specs')\n  lines.push('')\n  lines.push('The report carries JSON chart specs for Pareto cost/quality and paired gain histograms.')\n  lines.push('')\n  lines.push('```json')\n  lines.push(JSON.stringify({ pareto: report.pareto, gains: report.gains }, null, 2))\n  lines.push('```')\n  if (report.failureClusters) {\n    lines.push('')\n    lines.push('## Failure Clusters')\n    lines.push('')\n    lines.push('| Failure Class | Runs | Scenarios | Tool | Example |')\n    lines.push('|---|---:|---:|---|---|')\n    for (const c of report.failureClusters.clusters.slice(0, 10)) {\n      lines.push(`| ${c.failureClass} | ${c.runCount} | ${c.scenarioIds.length} | ${c.toolName ?? '-'} | ${escapePipes(c.exampleError ?? c.exampleRunId)} |`)\n    }\n  }\n  return lines.join('\\n')\n}\n\nfunction renderResearchHtml(markdown: string, title: string): string {\n  const body = markdownToHtml(markdown)\n  return [\n    '<!doctype html>',\n    '<html lang=\"en\">',\n    '<head>',\n    '<meta charset=\"utf-8\">',\n    '<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width, initial-scale=1\">',\n    `<title>${escapeHtml(title)}</title>`,\n    '<style>',\n    'body{font-family:Inter,ui-sans-serif,system-ui,-apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,\"Segoe UI\",sans-serif;margin:0;color:#172026;background:#f7f8f8;}',\n    'main{max-width:1080px;margin:0 auto;padding:40px 24px 64px;background:#fff;min-height:100vh;}',\n    'h1{font-size:34px;line-height:1.15;margin:0 0 20px;}h2{margin-top:34px;border-top:1px solid #d9dfdf;padding-top:22px;}h3{margin-top:22px;}',\n    'p,li{line-height:1.55;}table{border-collapse:collapse;width:100%;margin:16px 0;font-size:14px;}th,td{border:1px solid #d9dfdf;padding:8px;text-align:left;}th{background:#eef2f2;}',\n    'code,pre{font-family:ui-monospace,SFMono-Regular,Menlo,monospace;}pre{overflow:auto;background:#111827;color:#f9fafb;padding:16px;border-radius:6px;}',\n    '</style>',\n    '</head>',\n    '<body><main>',\n    body,\n    '</main></body></html>',\n  ].join('\\n')\n}\n\nfunction markdownToHtml(markdown: string): string {\n  const lines = markdown.split('\\n')\n  const html: string[] = []\n  let inList = false\n  let inCode = false\n  let code: string[] = []\n  let table: string[] = []\n\n  const flushList = () => {\n    if (inList) {\n      html.push('</ul>')\n      inList = false\n    }\n  }\n  const flushTable = () => {\n    if (table.length === 0) return\n    html.push(renderMarkdownTable(table))\n    table = []\n  }\n\n  for (const line of lines) {\n    if (line.startsWith('```')) {\n      if (inCode) {\n        html.push(`<pre><code>${escapeHtml(code.join('\\n'))}</code></pre>`)\n        code = []\n        inCode = false\n      } else {\n        flushList()\n        flushTable()\n        inCode = true\n      }\n      continue\n    }\n    if (inCode) {\n      code.push(line)\n      continue\n    }\n    if (line.startsWith('|')) {\n      flushList()\n      table.push(line)\n      continue\n    }\n    flushTable()\n    if (line.startsWith('- ')) {\n      if (!inList) {\n        html.push('<ul>')\n        inList = true\n      }\n      html.push(`<li>${inlineMarkdown(line.slice(2))}</li>`)\n      continue\n    }\n    flushList()\n    if (line.startsWith('# ')) html.push(`<h1>${inlineMarkdown(line.slice(2))}</h1>`)\n    else if (line.startsWith('## ')) html.push(`<h2>${inlineMarkdown(line.slice(3))}</h2>`)\n    else if (line.startsWith('### ')) html.push(`<h3>${inlineMarkdown(line.slice(4))}</h3>`)\n    else if (line.trim() === '') html.push('')\n    else html.push(`<p>${inlineMarkdown(line)}</p>`)\n  }\n  flushList()\n  flushTable()\n  return html.join('\\n')\n}\n\nfunction renderMarkdownTable(lines: string[]): string {\n  const rows = lines\n    .filter((line) => !/^\\|[-:\\s|]+\\|$/.test(line))\n    .map((line) => line.slice(1, -1).split('|').map((cell) => inlineMarkdown(cell.trim())))\n  if (rows.length === 0) return ''\n  const [head, ...body] = rows\n  const th = head!.map((cell) => `<th>${cell}</th>`).join('')\n  const trs = body.map((row) => `<tr>${row.map((cell) => `<td>${cell}</td>`).join('')}</tr>`).join('\\n')\n  return `<table><thead><tr>${th}</tr></thead><tbody>${trs}</tbody></table>`\n}\n\nfunction inlineMarkdown(s: string): string {\n  return escapeHtml(s).replace(/\\*\\*([^*]+)\\*\\*/g, '<strong>$1</strong>')\n}\n\nfunction escapeHtml(s: string): string {\n  return s\n    .replace(/&/g, '&amp;')\n    .replace(/</g, '&lt;')\n    .replace(/>/g, '&gt;')\n    .replace(/\"/g, '&quot;')\n}\n\nfunction escapePipes(s: string): string {\n  return s.replace(/\\|/g, '\\\\|')\n}\n\nfunction decisionWeight(decision: ResearchReportDecision): number {\n  if (decision === 'promote') return 5\n  if (decision === 'equivalent') return 4\n  if (decision === 'hold') return 3\n  if (decision === 'needs_more_data') return 2\n  return 1\n}\n\nfunction signed(x: number): string {\n  return `${x >= 0 ? 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package/dist/{chunk-3GN6U53I.js → chunk-KAO3Q65R.js}

@@ -1,7 +1,7 @@
 import {
   defaultProviderRedactor,
   providerFromBaseUrl
-} from "./chunk-SNUHRBDL.js";
+} from "./chunk-SQQLHODJ.js";
 
 // src/llm-client.ts
 var LlmCallError = class extends Error {
@@ -463,4 +463,4 @@ export {
   probeLlm,
   LlmClient
 };
-//# sourceMappingURL=chunk-3GN6U53I.js.map
+//# sourceMappingURL=chunk-KAO3Q65R.js.map