@tangle-network/agent-eval 0.208.2 → 0.210.0

package/docs/trace-analysis.md

@@ -39,6 +39,9 @@ python -m venv .venv
 ```
 
 The Python extra pins the tested stable DSPy and Deno versions.
+The bridge passes its already-probed per-analysis sandbox through DSPy’s
+interpreter factory, retaining the PythonInterpreter execution instructions
+that describe its Pyodide environment and permission limits.
 
 ## Build An Engine Without Python
 

package/package.json

@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
 {
   "name": "@tangle-network/agent-eval",
-  "version": "0.208.2",
+  "version": "0.210.0",
   "description": "Evaluate and improve AI agents from runs, traces, judges, and feedback. Compare candidates, cluster failures, measure lift, and gate releases.",
   "homepage": "https://github.com/tangle-network/agent-eval#readme",
   "repository": {
@@ -216,17 +216,18 @@
     "openapi": "node dist/cli.js openapi --out dist/openapi.json",
     "verify:package": "pnpm check:analyst-benchmark && pnpm run check:skill && pnpm run check:model-ids && pnpm run check:canonical-json && pnpm run check:collation-ordering && publint && attw --pack --profile esm-only . && node scripts/verify-package-exports.mjs && pnpm run contract:finding:check && pnpm run evidence:check",
     "contract:finding": "tsx scripts/emit-finding-contract.ts",
-    "contract:finding:check": "tsx scripts/emit-finding-contract.ts --check",
+    "contract:finding:check": "node --import tsx scripts/emit-finding-contract.ts --check",
     "evidence:render": "tsx scripts/render-evidence-index.ts",
-    "evidence:check": "tsx scripts/render-evidence-index.ts --check",
+    "evidence:check": "node --import tsx scripts/render-evidence-index.ts --check",
     "redaction:corpus": "tsx scripts/redaction-corpus.ts"
   },
   "dependencies": {
     "@asteasolutions/zod-to-openapi": "^9.1.0",
     "@hono/node-server": "^2.1.1",
-    "@tangle-network/agent-core": "^0.10.2",
-    "@tangle-network/agent-interface": "^2.13.1",
+    "@tangle-network/agent-core": "^0.10.3",
+    "@tangle-network/agent-interface": "^3.0.0",
     "@tangle-network/agent-trace-contract": "^2.0.0",
+    "@tangle-network/harness-sessions": "0.1.0",
     "hono": "^4.13.9",
     "linear-sum-assignment": "1.0.9",
     "re2js": "2.8.6",

package/dist/agent-profile-cell-BHcB-mZX.d.ts.map

@@ -1 +0,0 @@
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package/dist/agent-profile-cell-DcFW4vOc.js.map

@@ -1 +0,0 @@
-{"version":3,"file":"agent-profile-cell-DcFW4vOc.js","names":[],"sources":["../src/pre-registration.ts","../src/agent-profile-cell.ts"],"sourcesContent":["/**\n * Pre-registered hypotheses — declare what you're testing BEFORE the\n * run, check it AFTER. Prevents p-hacking, optional stopping, and the\n * \"we ran until it looked good\" failure mode.\n *\n * Manifest is a plain JSON-friendly object. Sign it with a content hash\n * + timestamp; the registered record becomes immutable. Post-run,\n * evaluate the manifest against observed results — the library refuses\n * to let you re-interpret a different metric as the declared one.\n *\n * A signed manifest carries its required digest scheme. Verification accepts\n * only RFC 8785 canonical JSON, using the same encoder as every new identity.\n */\n\nimport { hashCanonical } from './ledger-core/canonical'\n\nexport interface HypothesisManifest {\n  id: string\n  /** Human prose — goes into the audit trail. */\n  hypothesis: string\n  /** Metric the hypothesis claims to move. */\n  metric: string\n  /** 'increase' = candidate should score higher than baseline; 'decrease' = lower. */\n  direction: 'increase' | 'decrease'\n  /** Minimum effect size to count (same units as the metric). */\n  minEffect: number\n  /** Alpha threshold. */\n  alpha: number\n  /** Target statistical power at which sample size was pre-computed. */\n  power: number\n  /** Declared N per arm before running. */\n  preRegisteredN: number\n  /** ISO8601 timestamp the manifest was registered. */\n  registeredAt: string\n  /** Optional identifiers to tie into the trace corpus. */\n  baselineLabel?: string\n  candidateLabel?: string\n}\n\n/** SHA-256 over RFC 8785 canonical JSON, excluding `contentHash` and `algo`. */\nexport type SignedManifestAlgo = 'sha256-rfc8785'\n\nexport interface SignedManifest extends HypothesisManifest {\n  /** sha256 hex of canonicalized manifest (everything except contentHash and algo). */\n  contentHash: string\n  /** Required digest scheme. Missing or unsupported schemes fail verification. */\n  algo: SignedManifestAlgo\n}\n\nexport interface HypothesisResult {\n  manifest: SignedManifest\n  observedN: number\n  observedEffect: number\n  observedPValue: number\n  /** True iff the observed effect hits the pre-declared direction with\n   *  magnitude ≥ minEffect AND p < alpha. */\n  confirmed: boolean\n  /** Enumerated reasons the hypothesis was rejected (each a machine-tag). */\n  rejectionReasons: Array<\n    'wrong_direction' | 'effect_too_small' | 'not_significant' | 'undersampled'\n  >\n  notes?: string\n}\n\n/**\n * SHA-256 hex (full 64 chars) over the RFC 8785 canonical JSON encoding of\n * `obj` — the package's one identity scheme, shared with `ledger-core`.\n *\n * Values canonical JSON cannot represent faithfully — `undefined`, `NaN`,\n * class instances, cycles — are refused rather than coerced, because a\n * coercion maps two distinct records onto one digest.\n *\n * Named `hashJson` to disambiguate from `prompt-registry.ts`'s `hashContent`,\n * which takes a string input and returns a truncated 12-char prompt id.\n *\n * @example\n *   const hash = await hashJson({ id: '1', kind: 'spec' })\n *   // 'a3f1...' (64 hex chars)\n */\nexport async function hashJson<T>(obj: T): Promise<string> {\n  return hashCanonical(obj).slice('sha256:'.length)\n}\n\n/**\n * Digest a manifest after validating its scheme, excluding `contentHash` and\n * `algo`. This synchronous check can refuse a manifest before consuming data.\n */\nexport function manifestContentDigest(manifest: SignedManifest): string {\n  const { contentHash: _contentHash, algo, ...rest } = manifest\n  void _contentHash\n  if (algo !== 'sha256-rfc8785') {\n    throw new Error(`pre-registration: unsupported manifest hash algo '${String(algo)}'`)\n  }\n  return hashCanonical(rest).slice('sha256:'.length)\n}\n\n/**\n * Sign a manifest with a SHA-256 content hash over its RFC 8785 canonical\n * JSON, with `contentHash` and `algo` stripped, and stamp the scheme in\n * `algo` so a later reader knows which encoder to verify with.\n */\nexport async function signManifest(m: HypothesisManifest): Promise<SignedManifest> {\n  const signed: SignedManifest = { ...m, contentHash: '', algo: 'sha256-rfc8785' }\n  return { ...signed, contentHash: manifestContentDigest(signed) }\n}\n\n/**\n * Verify that a signed manifest has not been tampered with, under the scheme\n * the manifest itself declares.\n */\nexport async function verifyManifest(m: SignedManifest): Promise<boolean> {\n  try {\n    return manifestContentDigest(m) === m.contentHash\n  } catch {\n    return false\n  }\n}\n\n/**\n * Evaluate a pre-registered hypothesis against observed results.\n * Mechanical — no re-interpretation permitted.\n */\nexport async function evaluateHypothesis(\n  manifest: SignedManifest,\n  observed: { n: number; effect: number; pValue: number },\n): Promise<HypothesisResult> {\n  if (!(await verifyManifest(manifest))) {\n    throw new Error('evaluateHypothesis: unsupported manifest hash scheme or content hash mismatch')\n  }\n  const reasons: HypothesisResult['rejectionReasons'] = []\n  const directionOk = manifest.direction === 'increase' ? observed.effect > 0 : observed.effect < 0\n  if (!directionOk) reasons.push('wrong_direction')\n  if (Math.abs(observed.effect) < manifest.minEffect) reasons.push('effect_too_small')\n  if (observed.pValue >= manifest.alpha) reasons.push('not_significant')\n  if (observed.n < manifest.preRegisteredN) reasons.push('undersampled')\n  return {\n    manifest,\n    observedN: observed.n,\n    observedEffect: observed.effect,\n    observedPValue: observed.pValue,\n    confirmed: reasons.length === 0,\n    rejectionReasons: reasons,\n  }\n}\n","import type { AgentProfile } from '@tangle-network/agent-interface'\nimport { ValidationError } from './errors'\nimport { canonicalString, jsonDocument } from './ledger-core/canonical'\nimport { hashJson } from './pre-registration'\n\nexport type AgentProfileCellSchemaVersion = 'agent-profile-cell/v1'\n\nexport type AgentProfileJsonObject = { [key: string]: AgentProfileJson }\n\nexport type AgentProfileJson =\n  | string\n  | number\n  | boolean\n  | null\n  | AgentProfileJson[]\n  | AgentProfileJsonObject\n\nexport type AgentProfileDimensionValue = string | number | boolean | null\n\nexport interface AgentProfileSource {\n  /** Runtime/profile contract being fingerprinted, e.g. `agent-interface-profile`. */\n  kind: string\n  /** sha256 over the canonical source profile object. */\n  hash: string\n}\n\nexport interface AgentProfileSourceInput {\n  kind: string\n  /** Precomputed sha256 for callers that already sign their profile artifact. */\n  hash?: string\n  /** Full canonical runtime profile; hashed and then discarded from the cell. */\n  profile?: AgentProfileJson\n}\n\nexport interface AgentProfileHarness {\n  id: string\n  version?: string\n  hash?: string\n}\n\nexport interface AgentProfileCellInput {\n  profileId: string\n  sourceProfile: AgentProfileSourceInput\n  harness?: AgentProfileHarness\n  model?: string\n  promptHash?: string\n  dimensions?: Record<string, AgentProfileDimensionValue>\n}\n\nexport interface AgentProfileCell {\n  schemaVersion: AgentProfileCellSchemaVersion\n  cellId: string\n  profileId: string\n  sourceProfile: AgentProfileSource\n  harness?: AgentProfileHarness\n  model?: string\n  promptHash?: string\n  dimensions?: Record<string, AgentProfileDimensionValue>\n}\n\nexport class AgentProfileCellValidationError extends ValidationError {\n  readonly path: string\n  constructor(message: string, path = '') {\n    super(path ? `${message} (at ${path})` : message)\n    this.path = path\n  }\n}\n\nconst SHA256_HEX = /^[0-9a-f]{64}$/\n/** A cell id carries the canonical digest scheme required for verification. */\nconst CELL_ID = /^agent-profile-cell:sha256-rfc8785:[0-9a-f]{64}$/\nconst CELL_ID_PREFIX = 'agent-profile-cell:sha256-rfc8785:'\n\nexport async function buildAgentProfileCell(\n  input: AgentProfileCellInput,\n): Promise<AgentProfileCell> {\n  const material = await normalizeAgentProfileCellInput(input)\n  const cellId = `${CELL_ID_PREFIX}${await hashJson(material)}`\n  return { ...material, cellId }\n}\n\nexport function agentProfileCellHashMaterial(\n  cell: AgentProfileCell,\n): Omit<AgentProfileCell, 'cellId'> {\n  const { cellId: _cellId, ...material } = cell\n  void _cellId\n  return normalizeAgentProfileCell(material)\n}\n\n/**\n * Verify an `AgentProfileCell`'s `cellId` matches the sha256 of its hash-material\n * fields, confirming the record has not been tampered with. Unsupported digest\n * schemes are refused before comparing the material.\n */\nexport async function verifyAgentProfileCell(cell: AgentProfileCell): Promise<boolean> {\n  validateAgentProfileCell(cell)\n  const material = agentProfileCellHashMaterial(cell)\n  return cell.cellId === `${CELL_ID_PREFIX}${await hashJson(material)}`\n}\n\nexport function validateAgentProfileCell(input: unknown): AgentProfileCell {\n  if (input === null || typeof input !== 'object') {\n    throw new AgentProfileCellValidationError('expected object')\n  }\n  const obj = input as Record<string, unknown>\n  expectLiteral(obj.schemaVersion, 'agent-profile-cell/v1', 'schemaVersion')\n  if (typeof obj.cellId !== 'string' || !CELL_ID.test(obj.cellId)) {\n    throw new AgentProfileCellValidationError(\n      'cellId must match agent-profile-cell:sha256-rfc8785:<64 lowercase hex chars>',\n      'cellId',\n    )\n  }\n  expectString(obj.profileId, 'profileId')\n  validateSource(obj.sourceProfile, 'sourceProfile')\n  if (obj.harness !== undefined) validateHarness(obj.harness, 'harness')\n  if (obj.model !== undefined) expectString(obj.model, 'model')\n  if (obj.promptHash !== undefined) expectString(obj.promptHash, 'promptHash')\n  if (obj.dimensions !== undefined) validateDimensions(obj.dimensions, 'dimensions')\n  return input as AgentProfileCell\n}\n\nexport function requireAgentProfileCell(record: {\n  runId: string\n  agentProfile?: AgentProfileCell\n}): AgentProfileCell {\n  if (!record.agentProfile) {\n    throw new AgentProfileCellValidationError(\n      `run \"${record.runId}\" is missing agentProfile; profile-cell grouping requires explicit profile identity`,\n      'agentProfile',\n    )\n  }\n  return validateAgentProfileCell(record.agentProfile)\n}\n\nexport function agentProfileCellKey(record: {\n  runId: string\n  agentProfile?: AgentProfileCell\n}): string {\n  return requireAgentProfileCell(record).cellId\n}\n\nexport async function assertRunAgentProfileCell(record: {\n  runId: string\n  model: string\n  promptHash: string\n  agentProfile?: AgentProfileCell\n}): Promise<AgentProfileCell> {\n  const profile = requireAgentProfileCell(record)\n  if (!(await verifyAgentProfileCell(profile))) {\n    throw new AgentProfileCellValidationError(\n      `run \"${record.runId}\" has an agentProfile.cellId that does not match its content`,\n      'agentProfile.cellId',\n    )\n  }\n  if (profile.model !== undefined && profile.model !== record.model) {\n    throw new AgentProfileCellValidationError(\n      `run \"${record.runId}\" agentProfile.model \"${profile.model}\" does not match model \"${record.model}\"`,\n      'agentProfile.model',\n    )\n  }\n  if (profile.promptHash !== undefined && profile.promptHash !== record.promptHash) {\n    throw new AgentProfileCellValidationError(\n      `run \"${record.runId}\" agentProfile.promptHash \"${profile.promptHash}\" does not match promptHash \"${record.promptHash}\"`,\n      'agentProfile.promptHash',\n    )\n  }\n  return profile\n}\n\nexport function groupRunsByAgentProfileCell<\n  T extends { runId: string; agentProfile?: AgentProfileCell },\n>(records: readonly T[]): Map<string, T[]> {\n  const groups = new Map<string, T[]>()\n  for (const record of records) {\n    const key = agentProfileCellKey(record)\n    const bucket = groups.get(key)\n    if (bucket) bucket.push(record)\n    else groups.set(key, [record])\n  }\n  return groups\n}\n\nasync function normalizeAgentProfileCellInput(\n  input: AgentProfileCellInput,\n): Promise<Omit<AgentProfileCell, 'cellId'>> {\n  return normalizeAgentProfileCell({\n    schemaVersion: 'agent-profile-cell/v1',\n    profileId: input.profileId,\n    sourceProfile: await normalizeSourceInput(input.sourceProfile),\n    harness: input.harness,\n    model: input.model,\n    promptHash: input.promptHash,\n    dimensions: input.dimensions,\n  })\n}\n\nfunction normalizeAgentProfileCell(\n  input: Omit<AgentProfileCell, 'cellId'>,\n): Omit<AgentProfileCell, 'cellId'> {\n  return compactObject({\n    schemaVersion: 'agent-profile-cell/v1' as const,\n    profileId: requireNonEmpty(input.profileId, 'profileId'),\n    sourceProfile: normalizeSource(input.sourceProfile),\n    harness: input.harness ? normalizeHarness(input.harness, 'harness') : undefined,\n    model: optionalNonEmpty(input.model, 'model'),\n    promptHash: optionalNonEmpty(input.promptHash, 'promptHash'),\n    dimensions: input.dimensions\n      ? nonEmptyRecord(normalizeDimensions(input.dimensions))\n      : undefined,\n  })\n}\n\nasync function normalizeSourceInput(input: AgentProfileSourceInput): Promise<AgentProfileSource> {\n  const kind = requireNonEmpty(input.kind, 'sourceProfile.kind')\n  if (input.hash !== undefined && input.profile !== undefined) {\n    throw new AgentProfileCellValidationError(\n      'sourceProfile must provide either hash or profile, not both',\n      'sourceProfile',\n    )\n  }\n  if (input.hash !== undefined) {\n    return { kind, hash: requireSha256Hex(input.hash, 'sourceProfile.hash') }\n  }\n  if (input.profile === undefined) {\n    throw new AgentProfileCellValidationError(\n      'sourceProfile must provide hash or profile',\n      'sourceProfile',\n    )\n  }\n  assertJson(input.profile, 'sourceProfile.profile')\n  return { kind, hash: await hashJson(input.profile) }\n}\n\nfunction normalizeSource(input: AgentProfileSource): AgentProfileSource {\n  return {\n    kind: requireNonEmpty(input.kind, 'sourceProfile.kind'),\n    hash: requireSha256Hex(input.hash, 'sourceProfile.hash'),\n  }\n}\n\nfunction normalizeHarness(input: AgentProfileHarness, path: string): AgentProfileHarness {\n  return compactObject({\n    id: requireNonEmpty(input.id, `${path}.id`),\n    version: optionalNonEmpty(input.version, `${path}.version`),\n    hash: optionalNonEmpty(input.hash, `${path}.hash`),\n  })\n}\n\nfunction normalizeDimensions(\n  input: Record<string, AgentProfileDimensionValue>,\n): Record<string, AgentProfileDimensionValue> {\n  const out: Record<string, AgentProfileDimensionValue> = {}\n  for (const key of Object.keys(input).sort()) {\n    const value = input[key]\n    requireNonEmpty(key, 'dimensions.<key>')\n    if (\n      value !== null &&\n      typeof value !== 'string' &&\n      typeof value !== 'number' &&\n      typeof value !== 'boolean'\n    ) {\n      throw new AgentProfileCellValidationError(\n        'expected primitive dimension value',\n        `dimensions.${key}`,\n      )\n    }\n    if (typeof value === 'number' && !Number.isFinite(value)) {\n      throw new AgentProfileCellValidationError('expected finite number', `dimensions.${key}`)\n    }\n    Object.defineProperty(out, key, { value, enumerable: true, writable: true, configurable: true })\n  }\n  return out\n}\n\nfunction compactObject<T extends Record<string, unknown>>(input: T): T {\n  const out: Record<string, unknown> = {}\n  for (const [key, value] of Object.entries(input)) {\n    if (value !== undefined) out[key] = value\n  }\n  return out as T\n}\n\nfunction nonEmptyRecord<T extends Record<string, unknown>>(input: T): T | undefined {\n  return Object.keys(input).length > 0 ? input : undefined\n}\n\nfunction validateSource(value: unknown, path: string): void {\n  if (value === null || typeof value !== 'object' || Array.isArray(value)) {\n    throw new AgentProfileCellValidationError('expected object', path)\n  }\n  const rec = value as Record<string, unknown>\n  expectString(rec.kind, `${path}.kind`)\n  requireSha256Hex(rec.hash, `${path}.hash`)\n}\n\nfunction validateHarness(value: unknown, path: string): void {\n  if (value === null || typeof value !== 'object' || Array.isArray(value)) {\n    throw new AgentProfileCellValidationError('expected object', path)\n  }\n  const rec = value as Record<string, unknown>\n  expectString(rec.id, `${path}.id`)\n  if (rec.version !== undefined) expectString(rec.version, `${path}.version`)\n  if (rec.hash !== undefined) expectString(rec.hash, `${path}.hash`)\n}\n\nfunction validateDimensions(value: unknown, path: string): void {\n  if (value === null || typeof value !== 'object' || Array.isArray(value)) {\n    throw new AgentProfileCellValidationError('expected object', path)\n  }\n  normalizeDimensions(value as Record<string, AgentProfileDimensionValue>)\n}\n\nfunction assertJson(value: AgentProfileJson, path: string): void {\n  if (value === null) return\n  const type = typeof value\n  if (type === 'string' || type === 'boolean') return\n  if (type === 'number') {\n    if (!Number.isFinite(value)) {\n      throw new AgentProfileCellValidationError('expected finite number', path)\n    }\n    return\n  }\n  if (Array.isArray(value)) {\n    value.forEach((item, index) => {\n      assertJson(item, `${path}[${index}]`)\n    })\n    return\n  }\n  if (type === 'object') {\n    for (const [key, nested] of Object.entries(value)) {\n      requireNonEmpty(key, `${path}.<key>`)\n      assertJson(nested, `${path}.${key}`)\n    }\n    return\n  }\n  throw new AgentProfileCellValidationError('expected JSON-compatible value', path)\n}\n\nfunction expectLiteral(value: unknown, expected: string, path: string): void {\n  if (value !== expected) {\n    throw new AgentProfileCellValidationError(`expected ${expected}`, path)\n  }\n}\n\nfunction expectString(value: unknown, path: string): void {\n  if (typeof value !== 'string' || value.length === 0) {\n    throw new AgentProfileCellValidationError('expected non-empty string', path)\n  }\n}\n\nfunction requireNonEmpty(value: string, path: string): string {\n  if (typeof value !== 'string' || value.length === 0) {\n    throw new AgentProfileCellValidationError('expected non-empty string', path)\n  }\n  return value\n}\n\nfunction optionalNonEmpty(value: string | undefined, path: string): string | undefined {\n  if (value === undefined) return undefined\n  return requireNonEmpty(value, path)\n}\n\nfunction requireSha256Hex(value: unknown, path: string): string {\n  if (typeof value !== 'string' || !SHA256_HEX.test(value)) {\n    throw new AgentProfileCellValidationError('expected 64 lowercase sha256 hex chars', path)\n  }\n  return value\n}\n\n// ── Consumer helpers ─────────────────────────────────────────────────\n//\n// Boilerplate every product consuming `buildAgentProfileCell` used to duplicate:\n//\n//   1. A `JSON.parse(JSON.stringify(value))` helper that canonicalizes an\n//      arbitrary `@tangle-network/agent-interface` `AgentProfile` into the recursive\n//      `AgentProfileJson` shape, with a fail-loud error when the profile\n//      is not JSON-serializable.\n//\n//   2. The magic string `'agent-interface-profile'` for `sourceProfile.kind`.\n//\n// Both belong here so the cross-product cell join (same canonical profile\n// hashes to the same `sourceProfile.hash` across products) is enforced by\n// the type system, not by every consumer remembering to do it right.\n// See blueprint-agent issue tangle-network/agent-eval#82.\n\n/** Canonical `sourceProfile.kind` values. The profile alone determines\n *  `sourceProfile.hash`; kind also contributes to cellId. Compare both kind and\n *  hash when joining source identities across products. Extend rather than\n *  create new strings — a new kind is a cross-product schema change. */\nexport const AGENT_PROFILE_KINDS = {\n  /** A profile declared via `defineAgentProfile(...)` from\n   *  `@tangle-network/agent-interface`. The default kind for router-backed\n   *  and sandbox-backed products. */\n  AGENT_INTERFACE_PROFILE: 'agent-interface-profile',\n} as const\n\nexport type AgentProfileKind = (typeof AGENT_PROFILE_KINDS)[keyof typeof AGENT_PROFILE_KINDS]\n\n/** Convert a profile's JSON document form using the shared canonical encoder.\n *  Undefined object properties are absent from the document; other values with\n *  no faithful JSON representation are rejected before hashing. */\nexport function toAgentProfileJson(value: unknown): AgentProfileJson {\n  try {\n    return JSON.parse(canonicalString(jsonDocument(value))) as AgentProfileJson\n  } catch (err) {\n    throw new AgentProfileCellValidationError(\n      `agent profile must be JSON-serializable: ${err instanceof Error ? err.message : String(err)}`,\n      'sourceProfile.profile',\n    )\n  }\n}\n\n/** Canonical AgentProfile shape required when deriving a stable cell id. */\nexport type AgentInterfaceProfileLike = AgentProfile & { name: string; version: string }\n\n/** Higher-level helper that hard-codes the canonical\n *  `agent-interface-profile` kind plus the JSON canonicalization. Equivalent\n *  to calling `buildAgentProfileCell` with `profileId = \\`${name}@${version}\\``\n *  and `sourceProfile = { kind: AGENT_INTERFACE_PROFILE, profile: <round-tripped> }`.\n *\n *  Use this from any product consuming an agent-interface `AgentProfile`; the\n *  manual `buildAgentProfileCell` call is reserved for advanced cases\n *  (custom kinds, pre-computed source hashes, alternate profileId\n *  conventions). */\nexport async function buildAgentInterfaceProfileCell(\n  profile: AgentInterfaceProfileLike,\n  input: Omit<AgentProfileCellInput, 'profileId' | 'sourceProfile'>,\n): Promise<AgentProfileCell> {\n  if (!profile || typeof profile !== 'object') {\n    throw new AgentProfileCellValidationError('AgentProfile must be an object', 'profile')\n  }\n  if (typeof profile.name !== 'string' || profile.name.length === 0) {\n    throw new AgentProfileCellValidationError(\n      'AgentProfile must have a non-empty `name`',\n      'profile.name',\n    )\n  }\n  if (typeof profile.version !== 'string' || profile.version.length === 0) {\n    throw new AgentProfileCellValidationError(\n      'AgentProfile must have a non-empty `version`',\n      'profile.version',\n    )\n  }\n  return buildAgentProfileCell({\n    ...input,\n    profileId: `${profile.name}@${profile.version}`,\n    sourceProfile: {\n      kind: AGENT_PROFILE_KINDS.AGENT_INTERFACE_PROFILE,\n      profile: toAgentProfileJson(profile),\n    },\n  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package/dist/analyze-runs-GZ0VSwui.js.map

@@ -1 +0,0 @@
-{"version":3,"file":"analyze-runs-GZ0VSwui.js","names":[],"sources":["../src/contamination-guard.ts","../src/contract/analyze-runs.ts"],"sourcesContent":["/**\n * ContaminationGuard — ensures held-out scenarios don't leak into\n * training/prompt paths, and flags model memorization.\n *\n * Three probes:\n *   1. `checkCanaries(output, scenario)` — if the scenario carries a\n *      canary token, it MUST NOT appear in the agent's output.\n *      Canaries are strings that are statistically impossible to\n *      reconstruct from the scenario description alone — so if they\n *      echo back, the model memorized them.\n *   2. `canaryLeakView(store)` — cross-corpus view of every run whose\n *      output contained a canary, with the offending scenario + run.\n *   3. `HoldoutAuditor` — wraps a Dataset and emits a structured error\n *      on any code path that reads holdout scenarios but doesn't flag\n *      `purpose: 'evaluation'`. Keeps engineers honest.\n */\n\nimport type { DatasetScenario } from './dataset'\nimport { llmSpans } from './trace/query'\nimport type { TraceStore } from './trace/store'\n\nexport interface CanaryLeak {\n  scenarioId: string\n  canary: string\n  runId?: string\n  evidence: string\n}\n\nexport function checkCanaries(output: string, scenarios: DatasetScenario[]): CanaryLeak[] {\n  const leaks: CanaryLeak[] = []\n  for (const s of scenarios) {\n    if (!s.canary) continue\n    if (output.includes(s.canary)) {\n      leaks.push({ scenarioId: s.id, canary: s.canary, evidence: excerpt(output, s.canary) })\n    }\n  }\n  return leaks\n}\n\n/**\n * Behavioral canary: tests the AGENT, not the eval grep.\n *\n *   - `forbiddenPattern` PRESENT in output ⇒ AGENT EMITTED BAD CONTENT ⇒ LEAK.\n *   - `forbiddenPattern` ABSENT from output ⇒ AGENT HELD THE LINE       ⇒ PASS.\n *\n * Use when running known-bad-prompt scenarios against the agent under\n * test and you want to know if the agent misbehaved. The classical\n * {@link checkCanaries} / {@link import('./canary').runCanaries | runCanaries}\n * test whether the eval check fires when the bad output is forced\n * into the eval flow — different question, different answer.\n *\n * Pattern resolution order (first match wins):\n *   1. `scenario.forbiddenPattern` — if it parses as `/body/flags`,\n *      treated as a regex; otherwise a literal substring.\n *   2. `scenario.canary` — literal substring fallback so the helper\n *      works on existing scenario fixtures.\n *\n * Returns `null` when nothing forbidden was found OR the scenario\n * declared no pattern.\n */\nexport function checkBehavioralCanary(\n  output: string,\n  scenario: DatasetScenario,\n): CanaryLeak | null {\n  const pattern = scenario.forbiddenPattern ?? scenario.canary\n  if (!pattern) return null\n  const hit = matchForbidden(output, pattern)\n  if (!hit) return null\n  return {\n    scenarioId: scenario.id,\n    canary: pattern,\n    evidence: excerpt(output, hit),\n  }\n}\n\n/**\n * Behavioral canary over many (scenario, output) pairs. Sibling to\n * {@link import('./canary').runCanaries | runCanaries} — same idea\n * (run-many → report) but the question being answered is \"did the\n * AGENT misbehave?\" rather than \"did the EVAL grep fire?\".\n *\n * Returns one `CanaryLeak` per pair where the agent's output\n * contained its scenario's `forbiddenPattern` (or `canary` fallback).\n */\nexport function runBehavioralCanaries(\n  cases: Array<{ scenario: DatasetScenario; output: string; runId?: string }>,\n): CanaryLeak[] {\n  const leaks: CanaryLeak[] = []\n  for (const c of cases) {\n    const leak = checkBehavioralCanary(c.output, c.scenario)\n    if (leak) leaks.push({ ...leak, runId: c.runId ?? leak.runId })\n  }\n  return leaks\n}\n\n/**\n * Resolve a forbidden-pattern string to the matched substring inside\n * `output`. `/body/flags` notation is interpreted as a regex; anything\n * else is a literal substring.\n */\nfunction matchForbidden(output: string, pattern: string): string | null {\n  const re = tryParseRegex(pattern)\n  if (re) {\n    const m = output.match(re)\n    return m && m[0].length > 0 ? m[0] : null\n  }\n  return output.includes(pattern) ? pattern : null\n}\n\nfunction tryParseRegex(pattern: string): RegExp | null {\n  if (pattern.length < 2 || pattern[0] !== '/') return null\n  const last = pattern.lastIndexOf('/')\n  if (last <= 0) return null\n  const body = pattern.slice(1, last)\n  const flags = pattern.slice(last + 1)\n  if (!/^[gimsuy]*$/.test(flags)) return null\n  try {\n    return new RegExp(body, flags)\n  } catch {\n    return null\n  }\n}\n\n/**\n * Scan the LLM-output history in a corpus; returns every case where a\n * canary from a known scenario appeared in agent output. Pass the full\n * set of scenarios whose canaries you care about (typically the whole\n * held-out slice).\n */\nexport async function canaryLeakView(\n  store: TraceStore,\n  scenarios: DatasetScenario[],\n): Promise<CanaryLeak[]> {\n  const targets = scenarios.filter((s) => !!s.canary)\n  if (targets.length === 0) return []\n  const spans = await llmSpans(store)\n  const leaks: CanaryLeak[] = []\n  for (const span of spans) {\n    const output = span.output ?? ''\n    for (const s of targets) {\n      if (s.canary && output.includes(s.canary)) {\n        leaks.push({\n          scenarioId: s.id,\n          canary: s.canary,\n          runId: span.runId,\n          evidence: excerpt(output, s.canary),\n        })\n      }\n    }\n  }\n  return leaks\n}\n\nexport class HoldoutAuditor {\n  private scenarios: DatasetScenario[]\n  private accessLog: Array<{ scenarioId: string; purpose: string; at: number }> = []\n\n  constructor(scenarios: DatasetScenario[]) {\n    this.scenarios = scenarios\n  }\n\n  /** Retrieve a holdout scenario for a declared purpose. Non-'evaluation' throws. */\n  get(scenarioId: string, purpose: 'evaluation' | 'debugging'): DatasetScenario {\n    if (purpose !== 'evaluation' && purpose !== 'debugging') {\n      throw new Error(\n        `HoldoutAuditor.get: purpose must be 'evaluation' or 'debugging', got ${purpose}`,\n      )\n    }\n    const s = this.scenarios.find((x) => x.id === scenarioId)\n    if (!s) throw new Error(`holdout scenario \"${scenarioId}\" not found`)\n    this.accessLog.push({ scenarioId, purpose, at: Date.now() })\n    return s\n  }\n\n  getAccessLog(): ReadonlyArray<{ scenarioId: string; purpose: string; at: number }> {\n    return this.accessLog\n  }\n}\n\nfunction excerpt(source: string, needle: string): string {\n  const at = source.indexOf(needle)\n  if (at < 0) return ''\n  const start = Math.max(0, at - 30)\n  const end = Math.min(source.length, at + needle.length + 30)\n  return (start > 0 ? '…' : '') + source.slice(start, end) + (end < source.length ? '…' : '')\n}\n","/**\n * # `analyzeRuns()` — turn a set of agent runs into an actionable decision packet.\n *\n * Wires the substrate's statistical, calibration, clustering, Pareto, and\n * release-confidence primitives into one `InsightReport`. Two top-level\n * entry points use this function:\n *\n *   - `selfImprove()` calls it on the campaign output to attach a packet\n *     to every run.\n *   - Consumers with observed `RunRecord[]` (production traces, gold\n *     corpora, approve/reject tables) call it directly via `analyzeRuns()`\n *     for analysis without a closed loop.\n *\n * Every section is opt-in based on what the input data supports — the\n * function never invents signal. If runs carry no judge scores, `judges`\n * is empty. If there's no baseline/candidate split, `lift` is undefined.\n * If no `analyst` is wired, `failureClusters` is undefined.\n *\n * The `recommendations` array is the human-readable layer; everything\n * else is the evidence backing each recommendation.\n */\n\nimport type { AnalystRegistry } from '../analyst/registry'\nimport type { AnalystFinding } from '../analyst/types'\nimport { welchsTTest } from '../baseline'\nimport { aggregatePairedHoldout } from '../campaign/gates/statistical-heldout'\nimport { checkCanaries } from '../contamination-guard'\nimport type { DatasetScenario } from '../dataset'\nimport { continuousAgreement } from '../judge-calibration'\nimport { pairRunRecords } from '../paired-arms'\nimport { observedSplitScore } from '../rollout/reward'\nimport {\n  type RunRecord,\n  type RunTerminalOutcome,\n  type RunTokenUsage,\n  validateRunRecord,\n} from '../run-record'\nimport {\n  BOOTSTRAP_GATE_MIN_N,\n  pairedBootstrap,\n  pairedCohensDz,\n  pairedMde,\n  pairedTTest,\n  pearsonR,\n  requiredPairedSampleSize,\n  spearmanR,\n} from '../statistics'\nimport { type ParetoFigureSpec, paretoChart } from '../summary-report'\nimport type { FailureClass } from '../trace/schema'\n\nimport type {\n  CostProvenanceSummary,\n  ExecutionInsight,\n  FailureClassTally,\n  FailureClusterInsight,\n  InsightReport,\n  InterRaterInsight,\n  JudgeInsight,\n  LiftInsight,\n  MetricDelta,\n  OutcomeCorrelationInsight,\n  PriorPeriodComparison,\n  Recommendation,\n  ScalarDistribution,\n  TokenUsageInsight,\n} from './insight-report'\n\n// ── Public API ───────────────────────────────────────────────────────\n\nexport interface AnalyzeRunsOptions {\n  /** The runs to analyze. */\n  runs: RunRecord[]\n  /** Which split to score against when reading composite from RunOutcome.\n   *  Default: holdout when ANY run has a `holdoutScore`, else search. */\n  split?: 'search' | 'holdout' | 'auto'\n  /** Pairwise analysis configuration. When both `baselineCandidateId` and\n   *  `candidateCandidateId` are present, lift is computed on paired\n   *  (experimentId, scenarioId, seed) identities shared between the two sides.\n   *  Unmatched rows remain visible in the lift result. */\n  baselineCandidateId?: string\n  candidateCandidateId?: string\n  /** Average matched run scores within these units before estimating lift.\n   *  Raw run distributions and unmatched-run counts remain unchanged. */\n  independentUnitByScenarioId?: ReadonlyMap<string, string>\n  /** Canary scenarios — checked against every run's raw output for\n   *  holdout contamination. */\n  canaryScenarios?: DatasetScenario[]\n  /** Analyst registry for failure clustering. When omitted, the\n   *  `failureClusters` section is left undefined. */\n  analyst?: AnalystRegistry\n  /** Downstream outcome metric per run (e.g. engagement rate, approval\n   *  rate, downstream pass rate). When present, the report includes\n   *  `outcomeCorrelation` + a simple linear reward model fit. */\n  outcomeSignal?: {\n    metric: string\n    valueByRunId: Record<string, number>\n  }\n  /** Multi-rater feedback for inter-rater agreement. Each entry is one\n   *  rater's score for one run. Two or more raters → kappa + disagreement\n   *  triage list. */\n  raterScores?: Array<{ runId: string; rater: string; score: number }>\n  /** Number of histogram bins for distributional summaries. Default 12. */\n  histogramBins?: number\n  /** Decision threshold — the smallest composite lift the caller cares\n   *  about. Used by the recommendations engine to call ship vs hold.\n   *  Default 0.02. */\n  decisionThreshold?: number\n  /** Optional prior-period runs. When set, the report includes\n   *  `priorPeriodComparison` with per-metric Welch-CI deltas and\n   *  recommendations fire on statistically significant regressions.\n   *  The two windows do NOT have to share scenarios — the comparison\n   *  is two-sample unpaired (the substrate's `lift` field uses paired\n   *  bootstrap on shared (experimentId, scenarioId, seed) identities; this is the\n   *  shape for \"this week vs last week\" rather than \"candidate vs\n   *  baseline within a campaign\"). */\n  baselineRuns?: RunRecord[]\n  /** Human-readable label for the baseline window, e.g. \"vs prior 7\n   *  days\", \"vs v3.1 release\". Surfaces in recommendations + UI. */\n  baselineLabel?: string\n}\n\nexport interface SummarizeExecutionOptions {\n  runs: RunRecord[]\n  histogramBins?: number\n}\n\nexport interface ExecutionReport {\n  execution: ExecutionInsight\n  costProvenance: CostProvenanceSummary\n}\n\n/** Summarize runtime facts without interpreting task quality or promotion readiness. */\nexport function summarizeExecution(opts: SummarizeExecutionOptions): ExecutionReport {\n  const runs = opts.runs.map(validateRunRecord)\n  const bins = opts.histogramBins ?? 12\n  return {\n    execution: computeExecutionInsight(runs, bins),\n    costProvenance: summarizeCostProvenance(runs),\n  }\n}\n\n/** A bootstrap interval with no spread: every resample landed on the same\n *  value, so the interval carries no information about how far the point\n *  estimate could be wrong and cannot support a directional claim. */\nfunction zeroWidth(ci: readonly [number, number]): boolean {\n  return !Number.isFinite(ci[0]) || !Number.isFinite(ci[1]) || ci[0] === ci[1]\n}\n\nexport async function analyzeRuns(opts: AnalyzeRunsOptions): Promise<InsightReport> {\n  const runs = opts.runs.map(validateRunRecord)\n  const bins = opts.histogramBins ?? 12\n  const threshold = opts.decisionThreshold ?? 0.02\n  if (!Number.isFinite(threshold)) {\n    throw new Error(`analyzeRuns: decisionThreshold must be finite, got ${threshold}`)\n  }\n  const split = resolveSplit(runs, opts.split ?? 'auto')\n\n  const compositeWithIds = runs\n    .map((r) => ({ runId: r.runId, score: compositeOf(r, split) }))\n    .filter((p) => Number.isFinite(p.score))\n  const composite = distributionOf(\n    compositeWithIds.map((p) => p.score),\n    bins,\n    compositeWithIds,\n  )\n\n  const perDimension = computePerDimension(runs, bins)\n  const { execution, costProvenance: provenance } = summarizeExecution({\n    runs,\n    histogramBins: bins,\n  })\n  const knownCostRuns = runs.filter((run) => run.costProvenance.usd !== null)\n  const costs = knownCostRuns.map((r) => r.costUsd).filter(isFiniteNumber)\n  const costDist = distributionOf(costs, bins)\n  const pareto = paretoChart(knownCostRuns, { split })\n  const degraded: { cost?: string; pareto?: string } = {}\n  if (provenance.uncaptured.n + provenance.lowerBound.n > 0) {\n    degraded.cost = diagnoseCostCoverage(runs, provenance)\n  } else if (costs.length === 0 || costs.every((c) => c === 0)) {\n    degraded.cost = `all ${runs.length} explicitly observed or estimated USD values are $0`\n  }\n  if (pareto.points.length < 2) {\n    degraded.pareto =\n      pareto.points.length === 0\n        ? 'no candidates — Pareto unavailable'\n        : 'single candidate — Pareto is a single point, not a frontier'\n  }\n  const costQuality = {\n    cost: costDist,\n    pareto,\n    provenance,\n    ...(degraded.cost || degraded.pareto ? { degraded } : {}),\n  }\n\n  const judges = computeJudgeInsights(runs)\n\n  const interRater = opts.raterScores ? computeInterRater(opts.raterScores) : undefined\n\n  const lift = computeLift(\n    runs,\n    opts.baselineCandidateId,\n    opts.candidateCandidateId,\n    split,\n    opts.independentUnitByScenarioId,\n  )\n\n  const failureClusters = opts.analyst\n    ? await computeFailureClusters(runs, opts.analyst, split)\n    : undefined\n\n  const failureClasses = computeFailureClasses(runs, split)\n\n  const contamination = opts.canaryScenarios\n    ? computeContamination(runs, opts.canaryScenarios)\n    : undefined\n\n  const outcomeCorrelation = opts.outcomeSignal\n    ? computeOutcomeCorrelation(runs, opts.outcomeSignal, split)\n    : undefined\n\n  const release = buildReleaseScorecard(composite, lift, contamination)\n\n  const priorPeriodComparison = opts.baselineRuns\n    ? computePriorPeriodComparison(runs, opts.baselineRuns, split, opts.baselineLabel)\n    : undefined\n\n  const recommendations = buildRecommendations({\n    composite,\n    judges,\n    interRater,\n    lift,\n    failureClusters,\n    failureClasses,\n    contamination,\n    outcomeCorrelation,\n    priorPeriodComparison,\n    threshold,\n  })\n\n  return {\n    n: runs.length,\n    execution,\n    composite,\n    perDimension,\n    costQuality,\n    judges,\n    interRater,\n    lift,\n    failureClusters,\n    contamination,\n    outcomeCorrelation,\n    release,\n    ...(failureClasses ? { failureClasses } : {}),\n    ...(priorPeriodComparison ? { priorPeriodComparison } : {}),\n    recommendations,\n  }\n}\n\nfunction computeExecutionInsight(runs: RunRecord[], bins: number): ExecutionInsight {\n  const aggregateRows = runs.flatMap((run) => {\n    const usage = aggregateTokenUsage(run)\n    return usage ? [{ usage, costUsd: finiteRaw(run, 'aggregate_cost_usd') }] : []\n  })\n  const aggregateCosts = aggregateRows.flatMap((row) =>\n    row.costUsd !== undefined ? [row.costUsd] : [],\n  )\n  const modelCounts = new Map<string, number>()\n  let executionErrorRuns = 0\n  let executionErrorEvents = 0\n  let errorReportingRuns = 0\n  let errorSpanEvents = 0\n  let errorSpanReportingRuns = 0\n  const terminalOutcomes: Record<RunTerminalOutcome, number> = {\n    succeeded: 0,\n    failed: 0,\n    cancelled: 0,\n    incomplete: 0,\n    unknown: 0,\n  }\n  const errorsByTerminalOutcome: ExecutionInsight['executionErrors']['byTerminalOutcome'] = {\n    succeeded: { withErrors: 0, withoutErrors: 0, unreported: 0 },\n    failed: { withErrors: 0, withoutErrors: 0, unreported: 0 },\n    cancelled: { withErrors: 0, withoutErrors: 0, unreported: 0 },\n    incomplete: { withErrors: 0, withoutErrors: 0, unreported: 0 },\n    unknown: { withErrors: 0, withoutErrors: 0, unreported: 0 },\n  }\n  let modelCallRuns = 0\n  let modelCallEvents = 0\n  let modelCallReportingRuns = 0\n\n  for (const run of runs) {\n    modelCounts.set(run.model, (modelCounts.get(run.model) ?? 0) + 1)\n    const terminalOutcome = run.terminalOutcome\n    terminalOutcomes[terminalOutcome] += 1\n    const modelCalls = nonNegativeCountRaw(run, 'llm_span_count')\n    if (modelCalls !== undefined) {\n      modelCallEvents += modelCalls\n      modelCallReportingRuns += 1\n    }\n    const usage = run.tokenUsage\n    if (\n      (modelCalls ?? 0) > 0 ||\n      usage.input > 0 ||\n      usage.output > 0 ||\n      (usage.cached ?? 0) > 0 ||\n      (usage.cacheWrite ?? 0) > 0\n    ) {\n      modelCallRuns += 1\n    }\n    const errorEvents = reportedExecutionErrorEvents(run)\n    if (errorEvents !== undefined) {\n      executionErrorEvents += errorEvents\n      errorReportingRuns += 1\n      if (errorEvents > 0) {\n        executionErrorRuns += 1\n        errorsByTerminalOutcome[terminalOutcome].withErrors += 1\n      } else errorsByTerminalOutcome[terminalOutcome].withoutErrors += 1\n    } else errorsByTerminalOutcome[terminalOutcome].unreported += 1\n    const reportedErrorSpans = nonNegativeCountRaw(run, 'error_span_count')\n    if (reportedErrorSpans !== undefined) {\n      errorSpanEvents += reportedErrorSpans\n      errorSpanReportingRuns += 1\n    }\n  }\n\n  return {\n    durationMs: distributionOf(\n      runs.map((run) => run.wallMs),\n      bins,\n    ),\n    queueMs: distributionOf(\n      runs.filter((run) => run.queueMs !== undefined).map((run) => run.queueMs!),\n      bins,\n    ),\n    tokenUsage: summarizeTokenUsage(\n      runs.map((run) => run.tokenUsage),\n      bins,\n    ),\n    aggregateUsage: {\n      runs: aggregateRows.length,\n      tokenUsage: summarizeTokenUsage(\n        aggregateRows.map((row) => row.usage),\n        bins,\n      ),\n      costUsd: distributionOf(aggregateCosts, bins),\n      totalCostUsd: aggregateCosts.reduce((total, value) => total + value, 0),\n    },\n    models: [...modelCounts.entries()]\n      .map(([model, count]) => ({ model, runs: count }))\n      .sort((left, right) => right.runs - left.runs || left.model.localeCompare(right.model)),\n    modelCalls: {\n      runs: modelCallRuns,\n      events: modelCallEvents,\n      reportingRuns: modelCallReportingRuns,\n    },\n    executionErrors: {\n      runs: executionErrorRuns,\n      fraction: errorReportingRuns > 0 ? executionErrorRuns / errorReportingRuns : null,\n      events: executionErrorEvents,\n      reportingRuns: errorReportingRuns,\n      errorSpanEvents,\n      errorSpanReportingRuns,\n      byTerminalOutcome: errorsByTerminalOutcome,\n    },\n    terminalOutcomes,\n  }\n}\n\nfunction reportedExecutionErrorEvents(run: RunRecord): number | undefined {\n  return nonNegativeCountRaw(run, 'execution_error_count')\n}\n\nfunction nonNegativeCountRaw(run: RunRecord, key: string): number | undefined {\n  const value = finiteRaw(run, key)\n  return value !== undefined && Number.isInteger(value) && value >= 0 ? value : undefined\n}\n\nfunction summarizeTokenUsage(usages: RunTokenUsage[], bins: number): TokenUsageInsight {\n  const reasoning = usages.flatMap((usage) =>\n    usage.reasoning !== undefined ? [usage.reasoning] : [],\n  )\n  const cached = usages.flatMap((usage) => (usage.cached !== undefined ? [usage.cached] : []))\n  const cacheWrite = usages.flatMap((usage) =>\n    usage.cacheWrite !== undefined ? [usage.cacheWrite] : [],\n  )\n  return {\n    input: distributionOf(\n      usages.map((usage) => usage.input),\n      bins,\n    ),\n    output: distributionOf(\n      usages.map((usage) => usage.output),\n      bins,\n    ),\n    reasoning: distributionOf(reasoning, bins),\n    cached: distributionOf(cached, bins),\n    cacheWrite: distributionOf(cacheWrite, bins),\n    totals: {\n      input: usages.reduce((total, usage) => total + usage.input, 0),\n      output: usages.reduce((total, usage) => total + usage.output, 0),\n      reasoning: reasoning.reduce((total, value) => total + value, 0),\n      cached: cached.reduce((total, value) => total + value, 0),\n      cacheWrite: cacheWrite.reduce((total, value) => total + value, 0),\n    },\n  }\n}\n\nfunction aggregateTokenUsage(run: RunRecord): RunTokenUsage | undefined {\n  const input = finiteRaw(run, 'aggregate_prompt_tokens')\n  const output = finiteRaw(run, 'aggregate_completion_tokens')\n  const reasoning = finiteRaw(run, 'aggregate_reasoning_tokens')\n  const cached = finiteRaw(run, 'aggregate_cached_tokens')\n  const cacheWrite = finiteRaw(run, 'aggregate_cache_write_tokens')\n  if (\n    input === undefined &&\n    output === undefined &&\n    reasoning === undefined &&\n    cached === undefined &&\n    cacheWrite === undefined\n  )\n    return undefined\n  return {\n    input: input ?? 0,\n    output: output ?? 0,\n    ...(reasoning !== undefined ? { reasoning } : {}),\n    ...(cached !== undefined ? { cached } : {}),\n    ...(cacheWrite !== undefined ? { cacheWrite } : {}),\n  }\n}\n\nfunction finiteRaw(run: RunRecord, key: string): number | undefined {\n  const value = run.outcome.raw[key]\n  return typeof value === 'number' && Number.isFinite(value) && value >= 0 ? value : undefined\n}\n\nfunction summarizeCostProvenance(runs: RunRecord[]): CostProvenanceSummary {\n  const summary: CostProvenanceSummary = {\n    observed: { n: 0, totalUsd: 0 },\n    estimated: { n: 0, totalUsd: 0 },\n    lowerBound: { n: 0, floorUsd: 0 },\n    uncaptured: { n: 0 },\n    knownFraction: 0,\n  }\n  for (const run of runs) {\n    const cost = run.costProvenance\n    if (cost.kind === 'uncaptured') {\n      summary.uncaptured.n += 1\n    } else if (cost.kind === 'lower-bound') {\n      summary.lowerBound.n += 1\n      summary.lowerBound.floorUsd += cost.knownLowerBoundUsd\n    } else {\n      summary[cost.kind].n += 1\n      summary[cost.kind].totalUsd += cost.usd\n    }\n  }\n  const known = summary.observed.n + summary.estimated.n\n  summary.knownFraction = runs.length > 0 ? known / runs.length : 0\n  return summary\n}\n\nfunction diagnoseCostCoverage(runs: RunRecord[], provenance: CostProvenanceSummary): string {\n  const unknown = provenance.uncaptured.n + provenance.lowerBound.n\n  const known = provenance.observed.n + provenance.estimated.n\n  const floor =\n    provenance.lowerBound.n > 0\n      ? ` (${provenance.lowerBound.n} of them cost at least $${provenance.lowerBound.floorUsd.toFixed(6)} together)`\n      : ''\n  if (unknown === runs.length) {\n    return `USD cost total unknown for all ${runs.length} runs${floor} — no observed or estimated USD values; token and wall-time metrics remain available.`\n  }\n  return `USD cost total unknown for ${unknown}/${runs.length} runs${floor}; excluded those rows from cost statistics (${known}/${runs.length} retained: ${provenance.observed.n} observed, ${provenance.estimated.n} estimated).`\n}\n\n/**\n * Model-free task-failure tally.\n *\n * Explicit non-success classes are task-failure evidence.\n * A low task score without a class is counted as `unknown`.\n */\nfunction computeFailureClasses(\n  runs: RunRecord[],\n  split: 'search' | 'holdout',\n): FailureClassTally[] | undefined {\n  const counts = new Map<FailureClass, number>()\n  for (const r of runs) {\n    if (!isTaskFailure(r, split)) continue\n    const key =\n      r.failureClass !== undefined && r.failureClass !== 'success' ? r.failureClass : 'unknown'\n    counts.set(key, (counts.get(key) ?? 0) + 1)\n  }\n  if (counts.size === 0) return undefined\n  const n = runs.length\n  return [...counts.entries()]\n    .map(([failureClass, count]) => ({\n      failureClass,\n      count,\n      share: n > 0 ? count / n : 0,\n    }))\n    .sort((a, b) => b.count - a.count || a.failureClass.localeCompare(b.failureClass))\n}\n\n// ── Prior-period comparison ─────────────────────────────────────────\n\n/** Direction of the metric — does \"higher current\" mean better or worse?\n *  Composite + judge dimensions: higher is better. Cost + duration: lower\n *  is better. The recommendations engine flips the sign before judging\n *  regressed vs improved. */\ntype MetricDirection = 'higher-is-better' | 'lower-is-better'\n\nfunction computePriorPeriodComparison(\n  current: RunRecord[],\n  baseline: RunRecord[],\n  split: 'search' | 'holdout',\n  windowLabel: string | undefined,\n): PriorPeriodComparison | undefined {\n  if (current.length === 0 || baseline.length === 0) return undefined\n\n  const metrics: Record<string, MetricDelta> = {}\n  const directions: Record<string, MetricDirection> = {}\n\n  const compositeCurrent = current\n    .map((r) => compositeOf(r, split))\n    .filter(Number.isFinite) as number[]\n  const compositeBaseline = baseline\n    .map((r) => compositeOf(r, split))\n    .filter(Number.isFinite) as number[]\n  if (compositeCurrent.length > 0 && compositeBaseline.length > 0) {\n    metrics.composite = welchCompare(compositeBaseline, compositeCurrent)\n    directions.composite = 'higher-is-better'\n  }\n\n  const costCurrent = knownCostValues(current)\n  const costBaseline = knownCostValues(baseline)\n  if (costCurrent.length > 0 && costBaseline.length > 0) {\n    metrics.cost = welchCompare(costBaseline, costCurrent)\n    directions.cost = 'lower-is-better'\n  }\n\n  const durCurrent = current.map((r) => r.wallMs).filter(Number.isFinite)\n  const durBaseline = baseline.map((r) => r.wallMs).filter(Number.isFinite)\n  if (durCurrent.length > 0 && durBaseline.length > 0) {\n    metrics.duration = welchCompare(durBaseline, durCurrent)\n    directions.duration = 'lower-is-better'\n  }\n\n  const tokCurrent = current\n    .map((r) => (r.tokenUsage.input ?? 0) + (r.tokenUsage.output ?? 0))\n    .filter(Number.isFinite)\n  const tokBaseline = baseline\n    .map((r) => (r.tokenUsage.input ?? 0) + (r.tokenUsage.output ?? 0))\n    .filter(Number.isFinite)\n  if (tokCurrent.length > 0 && tokBaseline.length > 0) {\n    metrics.tokenUsage = welchCompare(tokBaseline, tokCurrent)\n    directions.tokenUsage = 'lower-is-better'\n  }\n\n  // Per-dimension judge comparisons — only for dimensions present in BOTH\n  // windows. We use perDimMean since per-judge nesting is finicky for\n  // two-sample comparisons across different judge configurations.\n  const dimsCurrent = collectPerDimension(current)\n  const dimsBaseline = collectPerDimension(baseline)\n  for (const dim of Object.keys(dimsCurrent)) {\n    const b = dimsBaseline[dim]\n    const c = dimsCurrent[dim]\n    if (!b || b.length === 0 || !c || c.length === 0) continue\n    metrics[`dim.${dim}`] = welchCompare(b, c)\n    directions[`dim.${dim}`] = 'higher-is-better'\n  }\n\n  const regressedMetrics: string[] = []\n  const improvedMetrics: string[] = []\n  const inconclusiveMetrics: string[] = []\n  for (const [name, delta] of Object.entries(metrics)) {\n    if (delta.status !== 'ok') {\n      inconclusiveMetrics.push(name)\n      continue\n    }\n    if (!delta.significant) continue\n    const dir = directions[name] ?? 'higher-is-better'\n    const better = dir === 'higher-is-better' ? delta.delta > 0 : delta.delta < 0\n    if (better) improvedMetrics.push(name)\n    else regressedMetrics.push(name)\n  }\n\n  return {\n    baselineN: baseline.length,\n    currentN: current.length,\n    ...(windowLabel ? { windowLabel } : {}),\n    metrics,\n    regressedMetrics,\n    improvedMetrics,\n    inconclusiveMetrics,\n  }\n}\n\nfunction knownCostValues(runs: RunRecord[]): number[] {\n  return runs\n    .filter((run) => run.costProvenance.usd !== null)\n    .map((run) => run.costUsd)\n    .filter(isFiniteNumber)\n}\n\nfunction isFiniteNumber(value: unknown): value is number {\n  return typeof value === 'number' && Number.isFinite(value)\n}\n\n/** Collect per-dimension values across runs (from outcome.judgeScores.perDimMean). */\nfunction collectPerDimension(runs: RunRecord[]): Record<string, number[]> {\n  const out: Record<string, number[]> = {}\n  for (const r of runs) {\n    const perDim = r.outcome.judgeScores?.perDimMean\n    if (!perDim) continue\n    for (const [dim, value] of Object.entries(perDim)) {\n      if (!Number.isFinite(value)) continue\n      if (!out[dim]) out[dim] = []\n      out[dim].push(value as number)\n    }\n  }\n  return out\n}\n\n/** Adapt the shared two-sample Welch result to the report contract. */\nfunction welchCompare(baseline: number[], current: number[]): MetricDelta {\n  const result = welchsTTest(baseline, current)\n  const base = {\n    current: result.meanB,\n    baseline: result.meanA,\n    delta: result.delta,\n    baselineN: baseline.length,\n    currentN: current.length,\n  }\n  if (result.status !== 'ok') {\n    return {\n      ...base,\n      status: result.status,\n      ci95: null,\n      pValue: null,\n      cohensD: null,\n      significant: false,\n    }\n  }\n  return {\n    ...base,\n    status: 'ok',\n    ci95: result.ci95,\n    pValue: result.p,\n    cohensD: result.cohensD,\n    significant: result.p < 0.05 && Math.abs(result.cohensD) >= 0.2,\n  }\n}\n\n// ── Composite + split selection ─────────────────────────────────────\n\nfunction resolveSplit(\n  runs: RunRecord[],\n  pref: 'search' | 'holdout' | 'auto',\n): 'search' | 'holdout' {\n  if (pref !== 'auto') return pref\n  const hasHoldout = runs.some((r) => Number.isFinite(observedSplitScore(r, 'holdout')))\n  return hasHoldout ? 'holdout' : 'search'\n}\n\n/**\n * RAW (`observedSplitScore`): `analyzeRuns` describes what a set of runs\n * reported, and every downstream reader of this composite — distributions,\n * per-candidate summaries, the reward-hacking correlation — needs the ungated\n * number to see an inflated run at all.\n */\nfunction compositeOf(run: RunRecord, split: 'search' | 'holdout'): number {\n  // Split-exact, no cross-split fallthrough: answering \"what did this run\n  // score on the split I am summarising\" with the other split's number\n  // silently mixes populations.\n  const score = observedSplitScore(run, split)\n  return Number.isFinite(score) ? (score as number) : Number.NaN\n}\n\n// ── Distribution helpers ────────────────────────────────────────────\n\nfunction distributionOf(\n  values: number[],\n  bins: number,\n  withIds?: Array<{ runId: string; score: number }>,\n): ScalarDistribution {\n  if (values.length === 0) {\n    return {\n      n: 0,\n      mean: null,\n      p50: null,\n      p95: null,\n      stddev: null,\n      min: null,\n      max: null,\n      histogram: [],\n    }\n  }\n  const sorted = [...values].sort((a, b) => a - b)\n  const n = sorted.length\n  const mean = sorted.reduce((s, v) => s + v, 0) / n\n  const variance = sorted.reduce((s, v) => s + (v - mean) ** 2, 0) / n\n  const stddev = Math.sqrt(variance)\n  const tailRuns = withIds\n    ? [...withIds].sort((a, b) => a.score - b.score).slice(0, Math.min(5, withIds.length))\n    : undefined\n  return {\n    n,\n    mean,\n    p50: percentile(sorted, 0.5),\n    p95: percentile(sorted, 0.95),\n    stddev,\n    min: sorted[0]!,\n    max: sorted[n - 1]!,\n    histogram: histogram(sorted, bins),\n    ...(tailRuns ? { tailRuns } : {}),\n  }\n}\n\nfunction percentile(sorted: number[], q: number): number {\n  if (sorted.length === 0) return 0\n  if (sorted.length === 1) return sorted[0]!\n  const idx = (sorted.length - 1) * q\n  const lo = Math.floor(idx)\n  const hi = Math.ceil(idx)\n  if (lo === hi) return sorted[lo]!\n  const w = idx - lo\n  return sorted[lo]! * (1 - w) + sorted[hi]! * w\n}\n\n/** Even-width histogram over the value range. Returns inclusive-lo /\n *  exclusive-hi bins (closed on right for the last bin) compatible with\n *  the substrate's `GainDistributionBin` shape. */\nfunction histogram(sorted: number[], bins: number): ScalarDistribution['histogram'] {\n  if (sorted.length === 0 || bins < 1) return []\n  const min = sorted[0]!\n  const max = sorted[sorted.length - 1]!\n  if (min === max) return [{ lo: min, hi: max, count: sorted.length }]\n  const width = (max - min) / bins\n  const out: ScalarDistribution['histogram'] = []\n  for (let i = 0; i < bins; i++) {\n    const lo = min + i * width\n    const hi = i === bins - 1 ? max : lo + width\n    out.push({ lo, hi, count: 0 })\n  }\n  for (const v of sorted) {\n    const idx = Math.min(bins - 1, Math.floor((v - min) / width))\n    out[idx]!.count++\n  }\n  return out\n}\n\nfunction computePerDimension(runs: RunRecord[], bins: number): Record<string, ScalarDistribution> {\n  // JudgeScoresRecord pre-aggregates `perDimMean` (mean across judges per\n  // dimension). We collect those means across runs to produce a per-dim\n  // distribution at the corpus level. Consumers who want per-judge\n  // dimension values reach into `perJudge[judgeId][dim]` themselves.\n  const byDim = new Map<string, number[]>()\n  for (const run of runs) {\n    const scores = run.outcome.judgeScores\n    if (!scores) continue\n    for (const [dim, value] of Object.entries(scores.perDimMean ?? {})) {\n      if (!Number.isFinite(value)) continue\n      const arr = byDim.get(dim) ?? []\n      arr.push(value)\n      byDim.set(dim, arr)\n    }\n  }\n  const out: Record<string, ScalarDistribution> = {}\n  for (const [dim, values] of byDim) out[dim] = distributionOf(values, bins)\n  return out\n}\n\n// ── Judge insights ──────────────────────────────────────────────────\n\nfunction computeJudgeInsights(runs: RunRecord[]): Record<string, JudgeInsight> {\n  // Each judge's per-run mean is the average of its per-dimension scores\n  // for that run. We aggregate those means across all runs each judge\n  // scored — giving consumers a \"this judge's typical verdict\" reading.\n  const out: Record<string, JudgeInsight> = {}\n  const byJudge = new Map<string, number[]>()\n  for (const run of runs) {\n    const scores = run.outcome.judgeScores\n    if (!scores?.perJudge) continue\n    for (const [judgeId, dims] of Object.entries(scores.perJudge)) {\n      const dimValues = Object.values(dims).filter(Number.isFinite) as number[]\n      if (dimValues.length === 0) continue\n      const judgeMean = dimValues.reduce((s, v) => s + v, 0) / dimValues.length\n      const arr = byJudge.get(judgeId) ?? []\n      arr.push(judgeMean)\n      byJudge.set(judgeId, arr)\n    }\n  }\n  for (const [judgeId, values] of byJudge) {\n    out[judgeId] = {\n      n: values.length,\n      meanScore: values.reduce((s, v) => s + v, 0) / values.length,\n    }\n  }\n  return out\n}\n\n// ── Inter-rater agreement ───────────────────────────────────────────\n\nfunction computeInterRater(\n  ratings: Array<{ runId: string; rater: string; score: number }>,\n): InterRaterInsight | undefined {\n  const byRun = new Map<string, Array<{ rater: string; score: number }>>()\n  for (const r of ratings) {\n    if (!Number.isFinite(r.score)) continue\n    const list = byRun.get(r.runId) ?? []\n    list.push({ rater: r.rater, score: r.score })\n    byRun.set(r.runId, list)\n  }\n  const raters = new Set(ratings.map((r) => r.rater))\n  const jointlyRated: string[] = []\n  for (const [runId, ratersForRun] of byRun) {\n    const seen = new Set(ratersForRun.map((r) => r.rater))\n    let all = true\n    for (const r of raters) if (!seen.has(r)) all = false\n    if (all) jointlyRated.push(runId)\n  }\n  if (raters.size < 2 || jointlyRated.length === 0) return undefined\n\n  const raterList = [...raters].sort()\n  const perPair: Record<string, number> = {}\n  for (let i = 0; i < raterList.length; i++) {\n    for (let j = i + 1; j < raterList.length; j++) {\n      const a = raterList[i]!\n      const b = raterList[j]!\n      const aScores: number[] = []\n      const bScores: number[] = []\n      for (const runId of jointlyRated) {\n        const ratersForRun = byRun.get(runId)!\n        const sa = ratersForRun.find((r) => r.rater === a)?.score\n        const sb = ratersForRun.find((r) => r.rater === b)?.score\n        if (sa !== undefined && sb !== undefined) {\n          aScores.push(sa)\n          bScores.push(sb)\n        }\n      }\n      const agreement = continuousAgreement(\n        aScores.map((score, index) => [score, bScores[index]!]),\n        { bootstrap: 0 },\n      )\n      perPair[`${a}::${b}`] = agreement.weightedKappa\n    }\n  }\n  const matrix = jointlyRated.map((runId) => {\n    const ratingsByRater = new Map(byRun.get(runId)!.map((rating) => [rating.rater, rating.score]))\n    return raterList.map((rater) => ratingsByRater.get(rater)!)\n  })\n  const agreement = continuousAgreement(matrix, { bootstrap: 0 })\n\n  const disagreementCases = jointlyRated\n    .map((runId) => {\n      const ratersForRun = byRun.get(runId)!\n      const scores = ratersForRun.map((r) => r.score)\n      const range = Math.max(...scores) - Math.min(...scores)\n      return { runId, ratings: ratersForRun, range }\n    })\n    .sort((a, b) => b.range - a.range)\n    .slice(0, 20)\n\n  return {\n    raters: raters.size,\n    jointlyRated: jointlyRated.length,\n    kappa: Number.isFinite(agreement.weightedKappa) ? agreement.weightedKappa : 0,\n    icc: agreement.icc,\n    pearson: agreement.pearson,\n    spearman: agreement.spearman,\n    perPair,\n    disagreementCases,\n  }\n}\n\n// ── Lift ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────\n\nfunction computeLift(\n  runs: RunRecord[],\n  baselineId: string | undefined,\n  candidateId: string | undefined,\n  split: 'search' | 'holdout',\n  independentUnitByScenarioId?: ReadonlyMap<string, string>,\n): LiftInsight | undefined {\n  let bId = baselineId\n  let cId = candidateId\n  if (!bId || !cId) {\n    // Auto-detect: when exactly two distinct candidateIds appear, treat the\n    // lower-mean side as baseline.\n    const ids = [...new Set(runs.map((r) => r.candidateId))]\n    if (ids.length !== 2) return undefined\n    const [idA, idB] = ids as [string, string]\n    const scoresA = finiteCompositeScores(\n      runs.filter((run) => run.candidateId === idA),\n      split,\n    )\n    const scoresB = finiteCompositeScores(\n      runs.filter((run) => run.candidateId === idB),\n      split,\n    )\n    if (scoresA.length === 0 || scoresB.length === 0) return undefined\n    const meanA = mean(scoresA)\n    const meanB = mean(scoresB)\n    bId = meanA <= meanB ? idA : idB\n    cId = meanA <= meanB ? idB : idA\n  }\n\n  const baseline = runs.filter((r) => r.candidateId === bId)\n  const candidate = runs.filter((r) => r.candidateId === cId)\n  if (baseline.length === 0 || candidate.length === 0) return undefined\n\n  const scoredBaseline = baseline.filter((run) => Number.isFinite(compositeOf(run, split)))\n  const scoredCandidate = candidate.filter((run) => Number.isFinite(compositeOf(run, split)))\n  const pairing = pairRunRecords(scoredBaseline, scoredCandidate)\n  let pairedBaseline = pairing.pairs.map((pair) => compositeOf(pair.baseline, split))\n  let pairedCandidate = pairing.pairs.map((pair) => compositeOf(pair.treatment, split))\n  if (pairedBaseline.length === 0) return undefined\n  const grouped = independentUnitByScenarioId\n    ? aggregatePairedHoldout(\n        {\n          before: pairedBaseline,\n          after: pairedCandidate,\n          // Pairing is already fixed by experiment, scenario, and seed.\n          // The ordinal labels each matched observation for the shared reducer.\n          cellIds: pairing.pairs.map((pair, index) => `${pair.pairKey}:${index}`),\n        },\n        new Map(\n          pairing.pairs.map((pair) => [\n            pair.pairKey,\n            independentUnitByScenarioId.get(pair.baseline.scenarioId)!,\n          ]),\n        ),\n      )\n    : undefined\n  if (grouped) {\n    pairedBaseline = grouped.before\n    pairedCandidate = grouped.after\n  }\n  const reverseInferredArms =\n    grouped !== undefined &&\n    (!baselineId || !candidateId) &&\n    mean(pairedBaseline) > mean(pairedCandidate)\n  if (reverseInferredArms) [pairedBaseline, pairedCandidate] = [pairedCandidate, pairedBaseline]\n\n  const baselineMean = mean(pairedBaseline)\n  const candidateMean = mean(pairedCandidate)\n  const delta = candidateMean - baselineMean\n\n  const bootstrap = pairedBootstrap(pairedBaseline, pairedCandidate, {\n    confidence: 0.95,\n    resamples: 2000,\n    statistic: 'mean',\n  })\n  const tTest = pairedTTest(pairedBaseline, pairedCandidate)\n  const d = pairedCohensDz(pairedBaseline, pairedCandidate)\n  const mde = pairedMde({ nPaired: pairedBaseline.length, power: 0.8, alpha: 0.05 })\n  const requiredN =\n    d === null || d === 0\n      ? null\n      : requiredPairedSampleSize({\n          effect: Math.abs(d),\n          power: 0.8,\n          alpha: 0.05,\n        })\n\n  return {\n    baselineMean,\n    candidateMean,\n    delta,\n    ci95: [bootstrap.low, bootstrap.high],\n    pValue: tTest.p,\n    n: pairedBaseline.length,\n    ...(grouped ? { pairedRunN: pairing.pairs.length, independentUnitIds: grouped.unitIds } : {}),\n    minimumRequired: BOOTSTRAP_GATE_MIN_N,\n    decisionEligible: bootstrap.gateEligible,\n    unpairedBaseline: (reverseInferredArms ? pairing.unpairedTreatment : pairing.unpairedBaseline)\n      .length,\n    unpairedCandidate: (reverseInferredArms ? pairing.unpairedBaseline : pairing.unpairedTreatment)\n      .length,\n    cohensD: d,\n    mde,\n    requiredN,\n  }\n}\n\nfunction mean(arr: number[]): number {\n  return arr.length === 0 ? 0 : arr.reduce((s, v) => s + v, 0) / arr.length\n}\n\n// ── Failure clustering ──────────────────────────────────────────────\n\nasync function computeFailureClusters(\n  runs: RunRecord[],\n  analyst: AnalystRegistry,\n  split: 'search' | 'holdout',\n): Promise<FailureClusterInsight | undefined> {\n  const failed = runs.filter((run) => isTaskFailure(run, split))\n  if (failed.length === 0) return { clusters: [], totalFailures: 0 }\n\n  const clusters = new Map<string, { exemplars: string[]; runs: number }>()\n  const recordCluster = (key: string, runId: string) => {\n    const cluster = clusters.get(key) ?? { exemplars: [], runs: 0 }\n    cluster.runs += 1\n    if (cluster.exemplars.length < 5 && !cluster.exemplars.includes(runId)) {\n      cluster.exemplars.push(runId)\n    }\n    clusters.set(key, cluster)\n  }\n  for (const run of failed) {\n    try {\n      // AnalystRunInputs routes by field name: run-record analysts read\n      // `runRecord`. Any other shape makes every analyst skip with\n      // \"missing input\" and the clusters come back silently empty.\n      const result = await analyst.run(run.runId, { runRecord: run })\n      // One run can produce several findings in one cluster; count it once.\n      const keys = new Set(\n        result.findings.map(\n          (finding: AnalystFinding) => finding.area || finding.analyst_id || 'unclassified',\n        ),\n      )\n      for (const key of keys) recordCluster(key, run.runId)\n    } catch {\n      recordCluster('analyst-error', run.runId)\n    }\n  }\n  const clusterList = [...clusters.entries()].map(([id, c]) => ({\n    id,\n    name: id,\n    share: c.runs / failed.length,\n    exemplars: c.exemplars,\n  }))\n  clusterList.sort((a, b) => b.share - a.share)\n  return { clusters: clusterList, totalFailures: failed.length }\n}\n\nfunction finiteCompositeScores(runs: readonly RunRecord[], split: 'search' | 'holdout'): number[] {\n  return runs.map((run) => compositeOf(run, split)).filter(Number.isFinite)\n}\n\nfunction isTaskFailure(run: RunRecord, split: 'search' | 'holdout'): boolean {\n  if (run.failureClass !== undefined && run.failureClass !== 'success') return true\n  const score = compositeOf(run, split)\n  return Number.isFinite(score) && score < 0.5\n}\n\n// ── Contamination ──────────────────────────────────────────────────\n\nfunction computeContamination(\n  runs: RunRecord[],\n  canaries: DatasetScenario[],\n): InsightReport['contamination'] {\n  let leaks = 0\n  const details: Array<{ runId: string; canary: string; matched: string }> = []\n  for (const run of runs) {\n    const output = stringifyOutput(run)\n    if (!output) continue\n    const leaksHere = checkCanaries(output, canaries)\n    for (const leak of leaksHere) {\n      leaks++\n      details.push({ runId: run.runId, canary: leak.canary, matched: leak.evidence })\n    }\n  }\n  return { leaks, holdoutAuditPassed: leaks === 0, details }\n}\n\nfunction stringifyOutput(run: RunRecord): string | undefined {\n  // RunRecord doesn't fix where \"the agent's output\" lives — different\n  // consumers stash it differently. We probe the common shapes: the\n  // outcome.raw map (numeric only by design — unlikely to contain text),\n  // and any string-valued fields tucked under metadata via type casting.\n  // Consumers with bespoke shapes pass canaryScenarios only when they\n  // know their runs carry a stringifiable surface.\n  const metadata = (run as unknown as { metadata?: Record<string, unknown> }).metadata\n  if (typeof metadata?.output === 'string') return metadata.output\n  if (typeof metadata?.text === 'string') return metadata.text\n  return undefined\n}\n\n// ── Outcome correlation + linear reward model ──────────────────────\n\nfunction computeOutcomeCorrelation(\n  runs: RunRecord[],\n  outcome: { metric: string; valueByRunId: Record<string, number> },\n  split: 'search' | 'holdout',\n): OutcomeCorrelationInsight | undefined {\n  const xs: number[] = []\n  const ys: number[] = []\n  for (const run of runs) {\n    const y = outcome.valueByRunId[run.runId]\n    if (y === undefined || !Number.isFinite(y)) continue\n    const x = compositeOf(run, split)\n    if (!Number.isFinite(x)) continue\n    xs.push(x)\n    ys.push(y)\n  }\n  if (xs.length < 3) return undefined\n\n  const p = pearsonR(xs, ys)\n  const s = spearmanR(xs, ys)\n  const meanX = mean(xs)\n  const meanY = mean(ys)\n  let num = 0\n  let denom = 0\n  for (let i = 0; i < xs.length; i++) {\n    num += (xs[i]! - meanX) * (ys[i]! - meanY)\n    denom += (xs[i]! - meanX) ** 2\n  }\n  const slope = denom === 0 ? 0 : num / denom\n  const intercept = meanY - slope * meanX\n  const ssTot = ys.reduce((a, y) => a + (y - meanY) ** 2, 0)\n  const ssRes = ys.reduce((a, y, i) => a + (y - (intercept + slope * xs[i]!)) ** 2, 0)\n  const r2 = ssTot === 0 ? 0 : 1 - ssRes / ssTot\n\n  return {\n    metric: outcome.metric,\n    n: xs.length,\n    pearson: p,\n    spearman: s,\n    rewardModel: { intercept, slope, r2 },\n  }\n}\n\n// ── Release confidence scorecard ───────────────────────────────────\n\nfunction buildReleaseScorecard(\n  composite: ScalarDistribution,\n  lift: LiftInsight | undefined,\n  contamination: InsightReport['contamination'],\n): InsightReport['release'] {\n  // Synthesise a minimal scorecard from the rolled-up signal. The\n  // substrate's `evaluateReleaseConfidence` primitive consumes a richer\n  // input shape that callers can produce by wiring SLO definitions; the\n  // shape here is the contract `selfImprove`/`analyzeRuns` consumers\n  // receive automatically. They can call `evaluateReleaseConfidence`\n  // directly when they want SLO-based axis evaluation.\n  const axes: InsightReport['release']['axes'] = []\n  const liftPass =\n    lift === undefined\n      ? ('not_evaluated' as const)\n      : !lift.decisionEligible\n        ? ('not_evaluated' as const)\n        : lift.ci95[0] > 0 && !zeroWidth(lift.ci95)\n          ? ('pass' as const)\n          : lift.delta > 0\n            ? ('warn' as const)\n            : ('fail' as const)\n  axes.push({\n    name: 'quality-lift',\n    status: liftPass,\n    detail: lift\n      ? `delta=${lift.delta.toFixed(3)}, CI95=[${lift.ci95[0].toFixed(3)}, ${lift.ci95[1].toFixed(3)}], n=${lift.n}${lift.decisionEligible ? '' : ` (descriptive only; ${lift.minimumRequired} required)`}`\n      : 'no baseline/candidate pair available',\n  })\n  const contamPass =\n    contamination === undefined\n      ? ('not_evaluated' as const)\n      : contamination.leaks === 0\n        ? ('pass' as const)\n        : ('fail' as const)\n  axes.push({\n    name: 'contamination',\n    status: contamPass,\n    detail: contamination ? `${contamination.leaks} canary leak(s)` : 'no canaries supplied',\n  })\n  axes.push(\n    composite.n === 0\n      ? {\n          name: 'composite-distribution',\n          status: 'not_evaluated',\n          detail: 'no task-quality scores available',\n        }\n      : {\n          name: 'composite-distribution',\n          status:\n            composite.mean !== null && composite.mean >= 0.5\n              ? 'pass'\n              : composite.mean !== null && composite.mean >= 0.3\n                ? 'warn'\n                : 'fail',\n          detail:\n            composite.mean === null || composite.p50 === null || composite.p95 === null\n              ? 'task-quality distribution is internally incomplete'\n              : `mean=${composite.mean.toFixed(3)}, p50=${composite.p50.toFixed(3)}, p95=${composite.p95.toFixed(3)} over n=${composite.n}`,\n        },\n  )\n  const status = axes.some((a) => a.status === 'fail')\n    ? 'fail'\n    : axes.some((a) => a.status === 'warn' || a.status === 'not_evaluated')\n      ? 'warn'\n      : 'pass'\n  return {\n    status,\n    axes,\n    issues: [],\n  }\n}\n\n// ── Recommendations engine ─────────────────────────────────────────\n\ninterface RecommendationContext {\n  composite: ScalarDistribution\n  judges: Record<string, JudgeInsight>\n  interRater?: InterRaterInsight\n  lift?: LiftInsight\n  failureClusters?: FailureClusterInsight\n  failureClasses?: FailureClassTally[]\n  contamination?: InsightReport['contamination']\n  outcomeCorrelation?: OutcomeCorrelationInsight\n  priorPeriodComparison?: PriorPeriodComparison\n  threshold: number\n}\n\nfunction buildRecommendations(ctx: RecommendationContext): Recommendation[] {\n  const out: Recommendation[] = []\n\n  // Prior-period regressions — highest customer-impact signal when present.\n  // \"Did my last change help?\" with a falsifiable answer.\n  if (ctx.priorPeriodComparison) {\n    const ppc = ctx.priorPeriodComparison\n    const label = ppc.windowLabel ?? 'baseline period'\n    for (const name of ppc.regressedMetrics) {\n      const d = ppc.metrics[name]\n      if (d?.status !== 'ok') continue\n      out.push({\n        priority: 'critical',\n        kind: 'investigate',\n        title: `${name} regressed from ${d.baseline.toFixed(3)} → ${d.current.toFixed(3)} vs ${label}`,\n        detail: `Welch CI95 = [${d.ci95[0].toFixed(3)}, ${d.ci95[1].toFixed(3)}], p=${d.pValue.toFixed(4)}, Cohen's d=${d.cohensD.toFixed(2)} (n_current=${d.currentN}, n_baseline=${d.baselineN}). The regression is statistically significant at p<0.05 with at-least-small effect size.`,\n        evidencePath: `priorPeriodComparison.metrics.${name}`,\n      })\n    }\n    for (const name of ppc.improvedMetrics) {\n      const d = ppc.metrics[name]\n      if (d?.status !== 'ok') continue\n      out.push({\n        priority: 'low',\n        kind: 'ship',\n        title: `${name} improved from ${d.baseline.toFixed(3)} → ${d.current.toFixed(3)} vs ${label}`,\n        detail: `Welch CI95 = [${d.ci95[0].toFixed(3)}, ${d.ci95[1].toFixed(3)}], p=${d.pValue.toFixed(4)}, Cohen's d=${d.cohensD.toFixed(2)} (n_current=${d.currentN}, n_baseline=${d.baselineN}). Statistically significant improvement worth flagging.`,\n        evidencePath: `priorPeriodComparison.metrics.${name}`,\n      })\n    }\n    for (const name of ppc.inconclusiveMetrics) {\n      const d = ppc.metrics[name]\n      if (!d || d.status === 'ok' || d.delta === 0) continue\n      const reason =\n        d.status === 'zero-variance'\n          ? 'both periods have zero observed variance'\n          : 'one or both periods have fewer than two observations'\n      out.push({\n        priority: 'high',\n        kind: 'investigate',\n        title: `${name} changed from ${d.baseline.toFixed(3)} → ${d.current.toFixed(3)} vs ${label}; inference unavailable`,\n        detail: `Observed delta ${d.delta.toFixed(3)} across n_current=${d.currentN} and n_baseline=${d.baselineN}, but ${reason}. The report does not fabricate a p-value, confidence interval, or effect size; inspect independence and data capture before acting.`,\n        evidencePath: `priorPeriodComparison.metrics.${name}`,\n      })\n    }\n  }\n\n  // Composite-distribution branch. Fires when the overall quality signal is\n  // poor regardless of lift / contamination / clusters — the customer needs\n  // to know they have a problem AND which specific runs to inspect.\n  if (\n    ctx.composite.n > 0 &&\n    ctx.composite.mean !== null &&\n    ctx.composite.p50 !== null &&\n    ctx.composite.p95 !== null\n  ) {\n    if (ctx.composite.mean < 0.3) {\n      const tail = ctx.composite.tailRuns ?? []\n      const names = tail\n        .slice(0, 5)\n        .map((t) => `${t.runId}=${t.score.toFixed(3)}`)\n        .join(', ')\n      out.push({\n        priority: 'critical',\n        kind: 'investigate',\n        title: `Composite mean ${ctx.composite.mean.toFixed(3)} is below the 0.3 floor — the agent is broken on this corpus`,\n        detail:\n          tail.length > 0\n            ? `Worst ${tail.length} run${tail.length === 1 ? '' : 's'} to inspect first: ${names}. Histogram p50=${ctx.composite.p50.toFixed(3)}, p95=${ctx.composite.p95.toFixed(3)}.`\n            : `Histogram p50=${ctx.composite.p50.toFixed(3)}, p95=${ctx.composite.p95.toFixed(3)}.`,\n        evidencePath: 'composite.tailRuns',\n      })\n    } else if (ctx.composite.mean < 0.5) {\n      const tail = ctx.composite.tailRuns ?? []\n      const names = tail\n        .slice(0, 3)\n        .map((t) => `${t.runId}=${t.score.toFixed(3)}`)\n        .join(', ')\n      out.push({\n        priority: 'high',\n        kind: 'investigate',\n        title: `Composite mean ${ctx.composite.mean.toFixed(3)} is below 0.5 — investigate the lower tail before claiming the agent is healthy`,\n        detail:\n          tail.length > 0\n            ? `Worst ${tail.length} run${tail.length === 1 ? '' : 's'}: ${names}. Histogram p50=${ctx.composite.p50.toFixed(3)}, p95=${ctx.composite.p95.toFixed(3)}.`\n            : `Histogram p50=${ctx.composite.p50.toFixed(3)}, p95=${ctx.composite.p95.toFixed(3)}.`,\n        evidencePath: 'composite.tailRuns',\n      })\n    }\n  }\n\n  // A healthy-looking mean can hide a group of failed tasks sharing one\n  // producer-reported cause. This path does not require an analyst.\n  if (ctx.failureClasses && ctx.failureClasses.length > 0) {\n    const top = ctx.failureClasses[0]!\n    if (top.count >= 3 && top.share >= 0.15) {\n      out.push({\n        priority: top.share >= 0.25 ? 'high' : 'medium',\n        kind: 'investigate',\n        title: `'${top.failureClass}' is the dominant failure class — ${top.count} runs (${(top.share * 100).toFixed(0)}% of the corpus)`,\n        detail: `The mean composite can look acceptable while one failure class dominates the lower tail. ${top.count} of ${ctx.composite.n} runs failed with '${top.failureClass}'${ctx.failureClasses.length > 1 ? ` (next: '${ctx.failureClasses[1]!.failureClass}' ×${ctx.failureClasses[1]!.count})` : ''}. Fix this cause first.`,\n        evidencePath: 'failureClasses',\n      })\n    }\n  }\n\n  // Missing-judges branch. The report can't surface per-dimension or\n  // calibration signal when `outcome.judgeScores` is empty across the\n  // corpus. Tell the customer how to enrich.\n  if (Object.keys(ctx.judges).length === 0 && ctx.composite.n > 0) {\n    out.push({\n      priority: 'medium',\n      kind: 'expand-corpus',\n      title: 'No judge scores recorded — per-dimension + calibration insights unavailable',\n      detail:\n        'Records have no `outcome.judgeScores`. To unlock perDimension, judges, and calibration, attach a Judge run during your eval pass and populate `outcome.judgeScores.perJudge[judgeName][dimension] = score`. See `docs/insight-report.md` for the expected shape.',\n      evidencePath: 'judges',\n    })\n  }\n\n  if (ctx.lift) {\n    if (!ctx.lift.decisionEligible) {\n      out.push({\n        priority: 'high',\n        kind: 'expand-corpus',\n        title: `Inconclusive — ${ctx.lift.n} paired runs; ${ctx.lift.minimumRequired} required`,\n        detail: `The bootstrap interval is descriptive below ${ctx.lift.minimumRequired} paired observations and cannot support a ship decision.`,\n        evidencePath: 'lift',\n      })\n    } else {\n      const pairedEffect =\n        ctx.lift.cohensD === null ? 'undefined (zero delta variance)' : ctx.lift.cohensD.toFixed(2)\n      const pairedP =\n        ctx.lift.pValue === null ? 'undefined (zero delta variance)' : ctx.lift.pValue.toFixed(4)\n      const requiredRuns =\n        ctx.lift.requiredN === null ? 'not estimable' : `~${ctx.lift.requiredN} paired runs`\n      // A ZERO-WIDTH interval never reads as \"ship\": n identical paired deltas\n      // make every resample identical, so `[g, g]` clears any threshold below g\n      // and `[0, 0]` clears any negative `decisionThreshold`, on no spread at\n      // all. It falls through to the inconclusive/hold arms, which is where a\n      // sample carrying no information about its own error belongs.\n      const decisive = !zeroWidth(ctx.lift.ci95) && ctx.lift.ci95[0] > ctx.threshold\n      const inconclusive = ctx.lift.ci95[0] <= ctx.threshold && ctx.lift.ci95[1] > ctx.threshold\n      if (decisive) {\n        out.push({\n          priority: 'critical',\n          kind: 'ship',\n          title: `Ship — lift ${ctx.lift.delta.toFixed(3)} (95% CI ${ctx.lift.ci95[0].toFixed(3)}..${ctx.lift.ci95[1].toFixed(3)})`,\n          detail: `Holdout lift exceeds threshold ${ctx.threshold} with 95% bootstrap confidence (n=${ctx.lift.n}, p=${pairedP}, paired d=${pairedEffect}).`,\n          evidencePath: 'lift',\n        })\n      } else if (inconclusive) {\n        out.push({\n          priority: 'high',\n          kind: 'expand-corpus',\n          title: `Inconclusive — required sample is ${requiredRuns} (have ${ctx.lift.n}) at current effect size`,\n          detail: `CI straddles threshold. Current MDE at 80% power is ${ctx.lift.mde.toFixed(3)}; observed delta is ${ctx.lift.delta.toFixed(3)}.`,\n          evidencePath: 'lift',\n        })\n      } else {\n        out.push({\n          priority: 'critical',\n          kind: 'hold',\n          title: `Hold — lift CI lower bound ${ctx.lift.ci95[0].toFixed(3)} is at or below threshold ${ctx.threshold}`,\n          detail: `Bootstrap CI provides no statistical evidence the candidate is better. Consider tightening the mutation or expanding the holdout.`,\n          evidencePath: 'lift',\n        })\n      }\n    }\n  }\n\n  if (ctx.contamination && ctx.contamination.leaks > 0) {\n    out.push({\n      priority: 'critical',\n      kind: 'fix',\n      title: `${ctx.contamination.leaks} canary leak${ctx.contamination.leaks === 1 ? '' : 's'} detected`,\n      detail: `Holdout integrity is compromised. The lift number is unreliable until you investigate.`,\n      evidencePath: 'contamination',\n    })\n  }\n\n  if (ctx.interRater && ctx.interRater.kappa < 0.5) {\n    out.push({\n      priority: 'high',\n      kind: 'recalibrate',\n      title: `Inter-rater weighted kappa ${ctx.interRater.kappa.toFixed(2)} is below 0.5`,\n      detail:\n        'Raters disagree on what good looks like. Review the largest disagreement cases and refine the rubric before automating these decisions.',\n      evidencePath: 'interRater',\n    })\n  }\n\n  if (ctx.failureClusters && ctx.failureClusters.clusters.length > 0) {\n    const top = ctx.failureClusters.clusters[0]!\n    out.push({\n      priority: 'high',\n      kind: 'investigate',\n      title: `Top failure cluster: ${top.name} (${(top.share * 100).toFixed(0)}% of failures)`,\n      detail: `${ctx.failureClusters.totalFailures} runs failed. The largest cluster groups ${top.exemplars.length} exemplars under '${top.name}'.`,\n      evidencePath: 'failureClusters.clusters[0]',\n    })\n  }\n\n  if (ctx.outcomeCorrelation && Math.abs(ctx.outcomeCorrelation.spearman) < 0.3) {\n    out.push({\n      priority: 'medium',\n      kind: 'recalibrate',\n      title: `Judge scores decoupled from ${ctx.outcomeCorrelation.metric} (Spearman ρ=${ctx.outcomeCorrelation.spearman.toFixed(2)})`,\n      detail: `Your judges score what they were trained to score, but it isn't predicting downstream ${ctx.outcomeCorrelation.metric}. Consider retraining the judge against ${ctx.outcomeCorrelation.metric} as the gold signal.`,\n      evidencePath: 'outcomeCorrelation',\n    })\n  }\n\n  return out\n}\n\n// ── Re-export pareto figure spec for hosted-side rendering ─────────\n\nexport type { ParetoFigureSpec 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