@tangle-network/agent-eval 0.206.0 → 0.207.0

package/dist/{index-BRdZ0oJo.d.ts.map → index-CojsA_EE.d.ts.map}

@@ -1 +1 @@
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package/dist/{index-R8Xhod8e.d.ts → index-DVDiJIhi.d.ts}

@@ -3,10 +3,10 @@ import { a as RunRecord, c as RunSplitTag, n as RunCostProvenance } from "./run-
 import "./types-6VEehmEg.js";
 import "./statistical-heldout-COfgpWah.js";
 import "./types-ZUy5HGY5.js";
-import "./index-BRdZ0oJo.js";
+import "./index-CojsA_EE.js";
 import { p as TraceSpanEvent } from "./client-BzL9niqi.js";
 import { d as InsightReport, t as AnalyzeRunsOptions } from "./analyze-runs-Q74o4Hfj.js";
-import "./define-agent-eval-CKB6wyML.js";
+import "./define-agent-eval-B2YV-RDE.js";
 import "./default-registry-BHEfZHQd.js";
 import { AgentCandidateBenchmarkCellRef, AgentCandidateBenchmarkSuiteInputs, AgentCandidateBenchmarkTask, AgentCandidateBenchmarkTaskMaterial, AgentCandidateBundle, AgentCandidateEvaluationPolicy, AgentCandidateExperiment, AgentCandidateExperimentMaterial, AgentCandidateExperimentMeasurement, AgentImprovementCost, AgentImprovementMeasuredComparison, AgentProfileImprovementExperiment, AgentProfileImprovementExperimentMaterial, AgentProfileImprovementMeasuredComparison, AgentProfileImprovementMeasurement, AgentProfileImprovementRunCell, AgentProfileImprovementRunReceipt, AgentProfileImprovementSuiteInputs, AgentProfileImprovementTask, AgentProfileImprovementTaskMaterial, CandidateExecutionEvidence, Sha256Digest } from "@tangle-network/agent-interface";
 //#region src/contract/measured-comparison.d.ts
@@ -687,4 +687,4 @@ interface FromOtelSpansOptions {
 declare function fromOtelSpans(opts: FromOtelSpansOptions): RunRecord[];
 //#endregion
 export { FromRunRecordDirResult as $, CodeAgentSessionActionStatus as A, AgentTraceFile as B, fromOpenCodeSession as C, measuredComparisonFromCandidateExperiment as Ct, streamCodeAgentJsonlFile as D, sealCandidateExperiment as Dt, parseCodeAgentJsonlFile as E, sealCandidateBenchmarkTask as Et, CodeAgentSessionTerminalStatus as F, PartitionByAuthoringModelResult as G, AgentTraceRange as H, observeCodeAgentSession as I, EvalReportingSuiteInput as J, parseAgentTrace as K, AgentTraceContributor as L, CodeAgentSessionExecutionReceipt as M, CodeAgentSessionObservation as N, CodeAgentSessionAction as O, verifyCandidateExperiment as Ot, CodeAgentSessionSource as P, FromRunRecordDirOptions as Q, AgentTraceContributorType as R, fromKimiCodeSession as S, evaluatePairedMeasurements as St, parseCodeAgentJsonl as T, sealCandidateBenchmarkSuite as Tt, AgentTraceRecord as U, AgentTraceIndex as V, AuthoringProvenance as W, EvalReportingSuiteResult as X, EvalReportingSuiteOptions as Y, evalReportingSuite as Z, CodeAgentSessionIntakeResult as _, PairedMeasurement as _t, FromFeedbackTableOptions as a, RunAgentProfileImprovementExperimentOptions as at, fromClaudeCodeSession as b, RunCandidateExperimentOptions as bt, CodeAgentStoreObservation as c, runAgentProfileImprovementExperiment as ct, CodeAgentStoreScope as d, sealAgentProfileImprovementTask as dt, RunRecordRejection as et, CodeAgentStoreSession as f, verifyAgentProfileImprovementExperimentComparison as ft, CodeAgentSessionIntakeOptions as g, EvaluatePairedMeasurementsOptions as gt, CodeAgentSessionDiagnostic as h, CompareCandidateExperimentOptions as ht, FeedbackTableRow as i, CompareAgentProfileImprovementExperimentOptions as it, CodeAgentSessionActionSurface as j, CodeAgentSessionActionKind as k, verifyCandidateExperimentComparison as kt, CodeAgentStoreRejection as l, sealAgentProfileImprovementExperiment as lt, CodeAgentJsonlLine as m, CandidateExperimentRun as mt, fromOtelSpans as n, AgentProfileImprovementExperimentExecutionInput as nt, FromFeedbackTableResult as o, SealAgentProfileImprovementSuiteOptions as ot, observeCodeAgentStore as p, CandidateExperimentExecutionInput as pt, partitionRunsByAuthoringModel as q, FeedbackTableMeta as r, AgentProfileImprovementExperimentRun as rt, fromFeedbackTable as s, measuredComparisonFromAgentProfileImprovementExperiment as st, FromOtelSpansOptions as t, fromRunRecordDir as tt, CodeAgentStoreRejections as u, sealAgentProfileImprovementSuite as ut, CodeAgentSessionMetrics as v, PairedMeasurementAdapter as vt, fromPiSession as w, runCandidateExperiment as wt, fromCodexSession as x, SealCandidateBenchmarkSuiteOptions as xt, ParsedCodeAgentJsonl as y, PairedMeasurementEvaluation as yt, AgentTraceConversation as z };
-//# sourceMappingURL=index-R8Xhod8e.d.ts.map
+//# sourceMappingURL=index-DVDiJIhi.d.ts.map

package/dist/{index-R8Xhod8e.d.ts.map → index-DVDiJIhi.d.ts.map}

@@ -1 +1 @@
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+{"version":3,"file":"index-DVDiJIhi.d.ts","names":[],"sources":["../src/contract/measured-comparison.ts","../src/contract/profile-measured-comparison.ts","../src/contract/intake/run-record-dir.ts","../src/contract/eval-reporting-suite.ts","../src/contract/intake/agent-trace.ts","../src/contract/intake/code-agent-observation.ts","../src/contract/intake/code-agent-session.ts","../src/contract/intake/code-agent-store.ts","../src/contract/intake/feedback-table.ts","../src/contract/intake/otel-spans.ts"],"mappings":";;;;;;;;;;;;UAiCiB;EACf,QAAQ,gCAAgC;EACxC;EACA;;UAGe;EACf,YAAY;EACZ;EACA,QAAQ;EACR,MAAM;EACN,eAAe;EACf;EACA,SAAS;;UAGM;EACf,YAAY;EACZ,QAAQ,OAAO,oCAAoC,QAAQ;;EAE3D;;EAEA,aAAa;EACb,SAAS;;UAGM;EACf,cAAc;EACd;IACE;IACA,MAAM;;;UAIO;EACf,YAAY;EACZ,cAAc;EACd;IACE;IACA,MAAM;;EAER,aAAa;EACb;EACA,YAAY;EACZ;EACA,WAAW;;;UAII,kBAAkB;EACjC;EACA,UAAU;EACV,WAAW;;;UAII,yBAAyB;EACxC,MAAM,KAAK;EACX,WAAW,KAAK;IAAkB;IAAc;;EAChD,QAAQ,KAAK;EACb,eAAe,KAAK,OAAO;EAC3B,UAAU,KAAK;EACf,UAAU,KAAK;EACf,OAAO,KAAK;;UAGG,kCAAkC;EACjD,uBAAuB,kBAAkB;EACzC,QAAQ;EACR,SAAS,yBAAyB;;EAElC;;EAEA,kBAAkB;;EAElB,kBAAkB;;;KAIR,8BAA8B,KACxC;EAGA,iBAAiB;EACjB,WAAW;EACX;;;iBAIc,2BACd,UAAU,sCACT;;iBAQa,4BACd,SAAS,qCACR;;iBAiBa,wBACd,UAAU,mCACT;iBAQa,0BAA0B,iBAAiB;;iBAarC,uBACpB,SAAS,gCACR,QAAQ;;;;;;;;iBAkEK,2BAA2B,MACzC,SAAS,kCAAkC,QAC1C;;iBA8Ya,0CACd,SAAS,oCACR;;iBAuEa,oCACd,iBACC;;;UCjrBc;EACf,aAAa;EACb,QAAQ,gCAAgC;EACxC;EACA;;UAGe;EACf,YAAY;EACZ;EACA,aAAa;EACb,MAAM;EACN,SAAS;EACT;EACA,SAAS;;UAGM;EACf,YAAY;EACZ,QACE,OAAO,kDACN,QAAQ;;EAEX;;EAEA,aAAa;EACb,SAAS;;UAGM;EACf,cAAc;EACd;IACE;IACA,MAAM;;;UAIO;EACf,YAAY;EACZ,cAAc;EACd;IACE;IACA,MAAM;;EAER,aAAa;EACb;EACA,YAAY;EACZ;EACA,WAAW;;;iBAIG,gCACd,UAAU,sCACT;;iBAQa,iCACd,SAAS,0CACR;;iBAqBa,sCACd,UAAU,4CACT;;;;;;iBAsBmB,qCACpB,SAAS,8CACR,QAAQ;;iBA0CK,wDACd,SAAS,kDACR;;iBAuEa,kDACd,iBACC;;;;UC7Oc;;EAEf;;EAEA;;EAEA;;UAGe;;;;;;EAMf;;;;;;;EAOA,WAAW;;;;;;EAMX;;UAGe;;EAEf,MAAM;;EAEN,UAAU;;EAEV;;;;;;;;;;iBAkBoB,iBACpB,cACA,UAAS,0BACR,QAAQ;;;;;KC7CC,0BAA0B;UAErB;;;;;EAKf,UAAU,KAAK;;EAEf,OAAO;;;;;;;;;;EAUP;;;;UAKe;;;EAGf,QAAQ;;EAER;;IAEE;;IAEA;;;IAGA;;IAEA;;;IAGA,UAAU;;;EAGZ;;;;;;;iBAUoB,mBACpB,OAAO,yBACP,UAAS,4BACR,QAAQ;;;KChEC;UAEK;EACf,MAAM;;EAEN;;UAGe;EACf;EACA;EACA;;;EAGA,cAAc;;UAGC;EACf;EACA,cAAc;EACd,QAAQ;;UAGO;EACf;EACA,eAAe;;UAGA;EACf;EACA;EACA;EACA;IAAQ;IAAc;;EACtB;IAAS;IAAe;;EACxB,OAAO;;;;UAOQ;EACf;;EAEA;;EAEA;EACA;EACA;;EAEA;;EAEA;;KAGU,kBAAkB,YAAY;;;;;;iBAW1B,gBAAgB,SAAS,qBAAqB;UAmE7C;;;;EAIf,SAAS,YAAY;;;EAGrB,cAAc;;;;;;;;iBASA,8BACd,MAAM,aACN,OAAO,kBACN;;;KCjLS;KAEA;KAEA;KAEA;KASA;UAEK;EACf;EACA;EACA;;UAGe;EACf;EACA;EACA,MAAM;EACN,SAAS;EACT;EACA,QAAQ;EACR;EACA;EACA,UAAU;;UAGK;EACf,QAAQ;EACR;EACA;EACA;IACE,QAAQ;IACR;;EAEF,SAAS;;UAGM;EACf,QAAQ;EACR;EACA;EACA,YAAY;;;;;;;iBAeE,wBACd,SAAS,iCACR;;;UCjCc;EACf;EACA;;UAGe;EACf;EACA;EACA;EACA;EACA;EACA;EACA;EACA;EACA;EACA;EACA;EACA;EACA;EACA;EACA;EACA;EACA;EACA;EACA;EACA;EACA;EACA;EACA;EACA;EACA;EACA;EACA;EACA;EACA;EACA;EACA;EACA;EACA;EACA;EACA;EACA;EACA;EACA;EACA;;UAGe;EACf,QAAQ;EACR;EACA;EACA;EACA;EACA;EACA;EACA;EACA;EACA;EACA,WAAW;EACX;;UAGe;EACf,MAAM;EACN,aAAa;EACb,SAAS;EACT,cAAc;;UAGC;EACf;EACA;EACA;EACA;EACA;EACA;EACA,WAAW;EACX;EACA;EACA;EACA;EACA;EACA;;;EAGA,iBAAiB;;;EAGjB,YAAY;;;;KAKF;EACN;EAAe;EAAoB;;EACnC;EAAmB;;iBAcT,oBAAoB,gBAAgB;;;;;;;;;;iBAuB7B,yBAAyB,eAAe,eAAe;;;;;iBA6BxD,wBAAwB,eAAe,QAAQ;iBAUrD,iBACd,SAAS,gCACR;iBAIa,sBACd,SAAS,gCACR;iBAIa,oBACd,SAAS,gCACR;iBAIa,oBACd,SAAS,gCACR;iBAIa,cACd,SAAS,gCACR;;;;UC/Lc;;;;;WAKN;;WAEA,QAAQ;;;;;WAKR;;;;;WAKA;aACE;;aAEA;;;;KAKD;;UAUK;WACN;WACA;WACA;WACA;WACA,aAAa;;;UAIP;WACN;WACA,UAAU,SAAS,QAAQ,OAAO;;WAElC,QAAQ;aACN;aACA,QAAQ;;;;;;;;;KAUT;WAEG;WACA,OAAO;WACP;WACA,mBAAmB;;WAEnB;;WAEA;;WAEA;WACA,WAAW,SAAS,QAAQ,OAAO;WACnC,YAAY;;WAGZ;WACA,OAAO;WACP;;WAEA;WACA,YAAY;;;;;;;;;iBAaL,sBACpB,OAAO,sBACN,QAAQ;;;UCtHM;;;EAGf;;EAEA;;;EAGA;;;EAGA,WAAW;;UAGI;EACf;;;EAGA;;EAEA;;EAEA;;EAEA;;EAEA;;EAEA;;EAEA;;EAEA;;EAEA;;;EAGA,WAAW;;;EAGX,SAAS;;UAGM;;EAEf,SAAS;;;EAGT,OAAO;;;;EAIP;IAAU;IAAa;;;;;EAIvB;;UAGe;EACf,MAAM;;;EAGN,aAAa;IAAQ;IAAe;IAAe;;;iBAGrC,kBAAkB,MAAM,2BAA2B;;;UC3BlD;EACf,OAAO;;EAEP,eAAe;;EAEf;;;;;;EAMA,eAAe,eAAe,gBAAgB;;iBAGhC,cAAc,MAAM,uBAAuB"}

package/dist/index.d.ts

@@ -17,7 +17,7 @@ import { a as RunFilter, i as InMemoryTraceStore, n as FileSystemTraceStore, o a
 import { a as MintedRolloutLine } from "./schema-C-ziyJD7.js";
 import { a as mintRolloutRows, c as ScorePreference, i as RolloutSearchLineage, n as MintRolloutResult, t as MintRolloutOptions } from "./mint-C1W8w5wo.js";
 import { R as Scenario$1, S as JudgeConfig, _ as GateDecision, a as CampaignResult, w as JudgeScore$1 } from "./types-ZUy5HGY5.js";
-import { Ar as DEFAULT_RED_TEAM_CORPUS, At as RequirementCheck, Br as CanaryKind, Ct as extractProducedState, Dt as LlmCorrectnessCheckerOpts, Et as CorrectnessChecker, Fr as redTeamDataset, Ft as verifyCompletion, Hr as CanaryReport, Ir as redTeamReport, Ji as llmJudge, Lr as scoreRedTeamOutput, Mr as RedTeamCategory, Mt as TaskGold, Nr as RedTeamFinding, Nt as completionVerdict, Ot as ProducedProposal, Pr as RedTeamReport, Pt as createLlmCorrectnessChecker, Qi as transientDispatchFailure, Rr as CanaryAlert, St as ToolCallEventLike, Tt as CompletionVerdict, Ur as runCanaries, Vr as CanaryOptions, Zi as quotaExhaustedUntil, _a as runCampaign, _t as assertRealBackend, bt as ProposalEventLike, ga as RunCampaignOptions, gt as BackendIntegrityReport, ha as CampaignCellRetryPolicy, ht as BackendIntegrityError, jr as RedTeamCase, jt as SatisfiedBy, kt as ProducedState, ma as CampaignCellFailureReceipt, qi as LlmJudgeOptions, vt as summarizeBackendIntegrity, wt as CompletionRequirement, xt as RuntimeEventLike, yt as ArtifactEventLike, zr as CanaryEvaluation } from "./index-BRdZ0oJo.js";
+import { Ar as DEFAULT_RED_TEAM_CORPUS, At as RequirementCheck, Br as CanaryKind, Ct as extractProducedState, Dt as LlmCorrectnessCheckerOpts, Et as CorrectnessChecker, Fr as redTeamDataset, Ft as verifyCompletion, Hr as CanaryReport, Ir as redTeamReport, Ji as llmJudge, Lr as scoreRedTeamOutput, Mr as RedTeamCategory, Mt as TaskGold, Nr as RedTeamFinding, Nt as completionVerdict, Ot as ProducedProposal, Pr as RedTeamReport, Pt as createLlmCorrectnessChecker, Qi as transientDispatchFailure, Rr as CanaryAlert, St as ToolCallEventLike, Tt as CompletionVerdict, Ur as runCanaries, Vr as CanaryOptions, Zi as quotaExhaustedUntil, _a as runCampaign, _t as assertRealBackend, bt as ProposalEventLike, ga as RunCampaignOptions, gt as BackendIntegrityReport, ha as CampaignCellRetryPolicy, ht as BackendIntegrityError, jr as RedTeamCase, jt as SatisfiedBy, kt as ProducedState, ma as CampaignCellFailureReceipt, qi as LlmJudgeOptions, vt as summarizeBackendIntegrity, wt as CompletionRequirement, xt as RuntimeEventLike, yt as ArtifactEventLike, zr as CanaryEvaluation } from "./index-CojsA_EE.js";
 import { a as ProfileAxisSpec, c as expandProfileAxes, i as HarnessType, l as harnessAxisOf, n as CODING_HARNESSES, o as agentProfileHash, r as HARNESS_NATIVE_MODEL, s as agentProfileId, t as AgentProfile } from "./agent-profile-EpO0HURy.js";
 import { i as DatasetSplit, n as DatasetManifest, r as DatasetScenario, t as Dataset } from "./dataset-DQqhOCPt.js";
 import { C as defineEquivalenceCheck, S as buildEquivalenceRecord, _ as StrategyChecker, a as CheckerIdentity, b as VerificationStrategyProfile, c as EquivalenceCheckDefinition, d as EquivalenceCheckerInput, f as EquivalenceCheckerResult, g as EquivalenceRecord, h as EquivalenceProtocolError, i as equivalenceVerdict, l as EquivalenceCheckSpec, m as EquivalenceObligationStatus, n as VerdictCertification, o as CheckerOutcome, p as EquivalenceObligation, r as certificationEvidenceDigest, s as EquivalenceArm, t as DefaultVerdict, u as EquivalenceChecker, v as VERIFICATION_STRATEGIES, w as runEquivalenceCheck, x as VerificationStrategySource, y as VERIFICATION_STRATEGY_SOURCES } from "./verdict-E4eRNf7-.js";
@@ -27,7 +27,7 @@ import { a as FAILURE_BLAME, c as FailureContext, d as INFRA_FAILURE_BLAMES, f a
 import { d as InsightReport, i as analyzeRuns, t as AnalyzeRunsOptions } from "./analyze-runs-Q74o4Hfj.js";
 import { i as ExactAnalystRunEvent, l as ExactCapableAnalyst, o as ExactAnalystRunResult } from "./exact-types-BBMMYk3g.js";
 import { c as RegistryRunOpts, i as BudgetPolicy, n as AnalystRegistry, r as AnalystRegistryOptions, s as ExactRegistryRunOpts } from "./registry-CT-hMSkR.js";
-import { _ as SelfImproveMethodResult, a as DefinedAgentEval, c as SelfImproveMethodOptions, d as SelfImproveProposerOptions, f as SelfImproveProposerResult, g as SelfImproveMethodProvenance, h as selfImprove, i as DefineAgentEvalOptions, l as SelfImproveOptions, n as AgentEvalEvaluateOptions, o as defineAgentEval, p as SelfImproveResult, r as AgentEvalImproveOptions, s as SelfImproveBudget, t as AgentEvalAgent, u as SelfImproveProgressEvent } from "./define-agent-eval-CKB6wyML.js";
+import { _ as SelfImproveMethodResult, a as DefinedAgentEval, c as SelfImproveMethodOptions, d as SelfImproveProposerOptions, f as SelfImproveProposerResult, g as SelfImproveMethodProvenance, h as selfImprove, i as DefineAgentEvalOptions, l as SelfImproveOptions, n as AgentEvalEvaluateOptions, o as defineAgentEval, p as SelfImproveResult, r as AgentEvalImproveOptions, s as SelfImproveBudget, t as AgentEvalAgent, u as SelfImproveProgressEvent } from "./define-agent-eval-B2YV-RDE.js";
 import { a as createTraceAnalyst, i as TraceAnalystDefinition, n as buildDefaultAnalystRegistry, r as CreateTraceAnalystOptions, t as DefaultAnalystRegistryOptions } from "./default-registry-BHEfZHQd.js";
 import { i as TraceAnalysisEngineResult, l as RawAnalystFinding, n as TraceAnalysisEngine, t as DEFAULT_TRACE_ANALYST_OUTPUT_TOKENS } from "./engine-F_PvwesR.js";
 import { A as SemanticConceptJudgeInput, C as DspyRlmTraceEngineOptions, D as ConceptFinding, E as createChatTraceEngine, M as SemanticConceptJudgeResult, N as runSemanticConceptJudge, O as ConceptSpec, T as ChatTraceEngineOptions, _ as FindingSubject, a as FAILURE_MODE_KIND_SPEC, d as FindingsStore, f as PersistedFinding, j as SemanticConceptJudgeOptions, k as SEMANTIC_CONCEPT_JUDGE_VERSION, l as DiffPolicy, m as diffFindings, t as DEFAULT_TRACE_ANALYST_KINDS, u as FindingsDiff, v as FindingSubjectKind, w as createDspyRlmTraceEngine } from "./index-C9l_-23M.js";

package/dist/meta-eval/index.d.ts

@@ -106,6 +106,69 @@ export declare function calibrationFromPairs(inputPairs: readonly CalibrationPai
  * with `range: { lo: 0, hi: 1 }` (`binning: 'equal-frequency'` gives equal-mass bins).
  */
 export declare function brierScore(pairs: readonly CalibrationPair[]): number;
+/** One categorical forecast: a distribution over named outcomes and the outcome that occurred. */
+export interface CategoricalForecast {
+  /** Probability per outcome name. Must sum to 1 within 1e-6 and include `outcome`. */
+  probabilities: Readonly<Record<string, number>>;
+  outcome: string;
+}
+/**
+ * Multiclass Brier score in its sum form, mean over forecasts of Σₖ(pₖ − yₖ)², range [0, 2].
+ * With two outcomes it is twice the binary `brierScore`. A uniform forecast over K outcomes
+ * scores 1 − 1/K. The distribution is not renormalized here: repair provider rounding before
+ * scoring (`normalizeSystemOneResult` in `/systemone/protocol`), so a defective answer stays
+ * visible instead of being scored as if it were valid.
+ */
+export declare function multiclassBrierScore(forecasts: readonly CategoricalForecast[]): number;
+/** One ordinal forecast: probabilities in level order, lowest level first. */
+export interface OrdinalForecast {
+  probabilities: readonly number[];
+  /** Index into `probabilities` of the level that occurred. */
+  outcome: number;
+}
+/**
+ * Ranked probability score, mean over forecasts of Σₖ₌₁ᴷ⁻¹(Fₖ − Oₖ)² / (K − 1), where F and O are
+ * the cumulative forecast and observation, range [0, 1]. Unlike multiclass Brier it charges
+ * less for mass on a level next to the outcome than for mass far from it, which is the right
+ * penalty for score questions. With two levels it equals the binary Brier score.
+ */
+export declare function rankedProbabilityScore(forecasts: readonly OrdinalForecast[]): number;
+//#endregion
+//#region src/meta-eval/cluster-bootstrap.d.ts
+/** One observation and the source cluster it belongs to. */
+export interface ClusteredObservation {
+  cluster: string;
+  value: number;
+}
+export interface ClusterBootstrapOptions {
+  /** Confidence level. Default 0.95. */
+  confidence?: number;
+  /** Bootstrap resample count. Default 2000. */
+  resamples?: number;
+  /** Deterministic seed. If omitted, derived from the values so the interval is reproducible. */
+  seed?: number;
+}
+export interface ClusterBootstrapResult {
+  n: number;
+  clusters: number;
+  /** Mean over observations, each observation weighted equally. */
+  mean: number;
+  low: number;
+  high: number;
+  confidence: number;
+  resamples: number;
+}
+/**
+ * Percentile cluster bootstrap of an observation mean. Whole clusters are resampled with
+ * replacement and each resample's statistic is Σ values / Σ observations over the drawn
+ * clusters, so observations that share a source move together and a large cluster cannot
+ * pose as many independent results. For a paired comparison pass the per-observation
+ * difference (candidate − baseline) under the observation's cluster.
+ *
+ * With one cluster the interval collapses to the point estimate: there is no between-cluster
+ * spread to measure, which callers must treat as no interval, not as certainty.
+ */
+export declare function clusterBootstrapMean(observations: readonly ClusteredObservation[], options?: ClusterBootstrapOptions): ClusterBootstrapResult;
 //#endregion
 //#region src/meta-eval/evaluator-admission.d.ts
 export declare const evaluatorAdmissionPolicySchema: z.ZodObject<{

package/dist/meta-eval/index.d.ts.map

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+{"version":3,"file":"index.d.ts","names":[],"sources":["../../src/meta-eval/correlation-study.ts","../../src/meta-eval/calibration.ts","../../src/meta-eval/cluster-bootstrap.ts","../../src/meta-eval/evaluator-admission.ts","../../src/meta-eval/plants.ts","../../src/meta-eval/sentinel.ts"],"mappings":";;;;;;;;;;iBAoBiB;EACf;;;EAGA,WAAW,KAAK,KAAK,OAAO,eAAe;;iBAG5B;EACf;EACA;;iBAGe;EACf;EACA;EACA;EACA;EACA;;EAEA;IAAe;IAAe;;;EAE9B;IAAgB;IAAe;;;EAE/B;;iBAGe;EACf,OAAO;;EAEP,eAAe,MACb;IACE;IACA;;EAGJ;EACA;;iBAGe;;EAEf;;EAEA,gBAAgB;;EAEhB;;EAEA;;;EAGA;;wBAGoB,iBACpB,YAAY,YACZ,cAAc,cACd,aAAa,kBACb,8BACA,UAAS,0BACR,QAAQ;;;iBChEM;EACf;EACA;EACA;EACA;EACA;;EAEA;;iBAGe;EACf;EACA;EACA;EACA,MAAM;;EAEN;;EAEA;;iBAGe;;EAEf;;EAEA;;EAEA;IAAU;IAAY;;;iBAGP;EACf;EACA;;wBAGoB,iBACpB,YAAY,YACZ,cAAc,cACd,YAAY,gBACZ,uBACA,UAAS,qBACR,QAAQ;;wBA0CK,qBACd,qBAAqB,mBACrB,oBACA,uBACA,UAAS,qBACR;;;;;;wBA+Da,WAAW,gBAAgB;;iBAkB1B;;EAEf,eAAe,SAAS;EACxB;;;;;;;;;wBAUc,qBAAqB,oBAAoB;;iBAaxC;EACf;;EAEA;;;;;;;;wBASc,uBAAuB,oBAAoB;;;;iBC1N1C;EACf;EACA;;iBAGe;;EAEf;;EAEA;;EAEA;;iBAGe;EACf;EACA;;EAEA;EACA;EACA;EACA;EACA;;;;;;;;;;;;wBAac,qBACd,uBAAuB,wBACvB,UAAS,0BACR;;;qBCjCU,gCAA8B,EAAA;;;;GAMhC,EAAA,KAAA;;KAGC,2BAA2B,EAAE,aAAa;qBAEzC,iCAA+B,EAAA;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;GASjC,EAAA,KAAA;;KAGC,4BAA4B,EAAE,aAAa;cAEjD,aAAW,EAAA;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;GAeN,EAAA,KAAA;KAEC,sBAAsB,EAAE,aAAa;UAEhC;;EAEf;EACA;;EAEA;;EAEA;EACA;;EAEA;;EAEA,UAAU;EACV;EACA;;UAGe;EACf,iBAAiB;EACjB,cAAc;EACd,aAAa;EACb,cAAc;EACd;EACA;EACA,WAAW;EACX,QAAQ;;EAER;EACA;EACA;EACA;EACA,cAAc;EACd;IACE;IACA;IACA;IACA;IACA;IACA;;EAEF,YAAY;IAAQ;IAAY;IAA2B;;EAC3D,iBAAiB;EACjB,gBAAgB;;cAkGZ,gBAAc,EAAA;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;GAOT,EAAA,KAAA;KAEC,0BAA0B,EAAE,aAAa;;;;;;wBA0BrC,mBAAmB,OAAO;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;KAiC9B,qBAAqB,kBAAkB;;;;;;wBAOnC,eAAe,OAAO,sBAAsB;cAoFtD,wBAAsB,EAAA;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;GAG1B,EAAA,KAAA;;KAGU,8BAA8B,EAAE,aAAa;UAExC,qCAAqC;EACpD;IACE,uBAAuB;IACvB,YAAY;;IAEZ,cAAc;MAAQ;MAAY;;;;;;;;;wBAStB,uBACd,OAAO,8BACN;;;;;;;;YC1TS;;;;;;;;;;YAkBA;iBAOK;;EAEf;EACA,MAAM;;EAEN,MAAM;;EAEN,iBAAiB;;;;;;;;;;;;;;wBAeH,YAAY;EAC1B;EACA,MAAM;EACN,MAAM;EACN,iBAAiB;IACf;;;;;iBAqDa;;EAEf;;EAEA;;;YAIU;;YAGA;iBAEK;;EAEf,UAAU;;EAEV,OAAO;;EAEP,KAAK;;;;;;EAML;;EAEA;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;wBAsJc,gBAAgB,UAAU,gBAAgB;iBA8BzC;EACf,OAAO;;EAEP,UAAU;EACV,OAAO;EACP,KAAK;EACL;EACA;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;wBAuBc,oBAAoB;EAClC;EACA;EACA,UAAU;;EAEV;EACA;IACE;iBA0Ba;;;;;;EAMf,MAAM;;EAEN;;EAEA;;EAEA;;EAEA,QAAQ;;iBAGO;;;;;;EAMf,OAAO;EACP,UAAU;;iBAGK;;;;;EAKf;;;;;;EAMA;;;;;;;;;;;wBAYc,WACd,kBAAkB,cAClB,iBAAiB,SACjB,UAAS,oBACR;;;;;;iBAqGc;EACf;EACA;;;;;;YAOU;iBAEK;EACf;EACA;EACA;EACA;;EAEA;;;;;;;;iBASe;EACf;EACA;EACA;;EAEA;;iBAGe;EACf,QAAQ;;EAER;EACA;EACA;EACA;;;;;EAKA;;EAEA;;EAEA,QAAQ,QAAQ,OAAO,WAAW;;EAElC;;EAEA;EACA,UAAU;;;;;;;;;;wBAWI,UACd,kBAAkB,gBAClB,UAAU,gBACT;;;cC/lBG;YAEM,6BAA6B;iBAExB;;EAEf;;EAEA;;EAEA;;iBAGe;;EAEf;EACA;;EAEA;;;;;;;EAOA,SAAS;;;iBAIM;EACf;EACA;EACA;;;wBAcc,yBAAyB,UAAU,kBAAkB;;;;;;wBAiCrD,wBACd,QAAQ,oBAAoB,6BAC5B,MAAM,eACL;;;;;;;;wBAmBa,sBACd,QAAQ,wBAAwB,qBAChC,MAAM,eACL;iBAYc;;EAEf;;;;;;;;;wBAUc,wBACd,QAAQ,kBACR,QAAQ,cACR,MAAM,cACN,UAAS,qBACR;iBA4Cc;EACf,OAAO,UAAU,mBAAmB;;EAEpC,QAAQ,mBAAmB,QAAQ;;wBAGrB,sBAAsB,UAAS,qBAA0B;;;;;;;wBAqBzD,kBAAkB,eAAe;iBA0ChC;;EAEf;;EAEA;;EAEA;;EAEA;;iBAGe;;EAEf;EACA,aAAa;;EAEb,cAAc;;iBAGC;EACf;EACA,QAAQ;;EAER,OAAO;;EAEP;;EAEA;;EAEA;EACA;EACA;;iBAGe;EACf,UAAU;EACV;EACA;;;;;;;EAOA;;wBAKc,oBACd,SAAS,oBACT,MAAM,uBACL;iBA6Gc;EACf;EACA;;;;;;;;;;wBAWc,gBAAgB,QAAQ,iBAAiB"}

package/dist/meta-eval/index.js

@@ -1,5 +1,6 @@
 import { n as CaptureIntegrityError, s as ValidationError } from "../errors-Dngq5h35.js";
 import { a as hashCanonical, i as compareCodeUnits } from "../canonical-BsZVgBhW.js";
+import { i as makeRng } from "../internal-CRHwS9iz.js";
 import { t as mulberry32 } from "../random-Dn5fPWkt.js";
 import { a as selfPreference, i as positionalBias, n as calibrateJudgeContinuous, o as verbosityBias, r as continuousAgreement, t as calibrateJudge } from "../judge-calibration-N44V04Se.js";
 import { u as runMetricExtractor } from "../query-DlV0pdx4.js";
@@ -116,6 +117,64 @@ function brierScore(pairs) {
 	}
 	return total / pairs.length;
 }
+/**
+* Multiclass Brier score in its sum form, mean over forecasts of Σₖ(pₖ − yₖ)², range [0, 2].
+* With two outcomes it is twice the binary `brierScore`. A uniform forecast over K outcomes
+* scores 1 − 1/K. The distribution is not renormalized here: repair provider rounding before
+* scoring (`normalizeSystemOneResult` in `/systemone/protocol`), so a defective answer stays
+* visible instead of being scored as if it were valid.
+*/
+function multiclassBrierScore(forecasts) {
+	if (!forecasts.length) throw new Error("multiclass Brier score requires at least one forecast");
+	let total = 0;
+	for (const [index, forecast] of forecasts.entries()) {
+		const entries = categoricalEntries(forecast, index, "multiclass Brier");
+		for (const [name, probability] of entries) total += (probability - (name === forecast.outcome ? 1 : 0)) ** 2;
+	}
+	return total / forecasts.length;
+}
+/**
+* Ranked probability score, mean over forecasts of Σₖ₌₁ᴷ⁻¹(Fₖ − Oₖ)² / (K − 1), where F and O are
+* the cumulative forecast and observation, range [0, 1]. Unlike multiclass Brier it charges
+* less for mass on a level next to the outcome than for mass far from it, which is the right
+* penalty for score questions. With two levels it equals the binary Brier score.
+*/
+function rankedProbabilityScore(forecasts) {
+	if (!forecasts.length) throw new Error("ranked probability score requires at least one forecast");
+	let total = 0;
+	for (const [index, forecast] of forecasts.entries()) {
+		const probabilities = forecast?.probabilities;
+		if (!Array.isArray(probabilities) || probabilities.length < 2) throw new Error(`RPS forecast ${index} needs at least two level probabilities`);
+		assertDistribution(probabilities, `RPS forecast ${index}`);
+		if (!Number.isInteger(forecast.outcome) || forecast.outcome < 0 || forecast.outcome >= probabilities.length) throw new Error(`RPS forecast ${index} outcome must index one of its ${probabilities.length} levels`);
+		let cumulative = 0;
+		let sum = 0;
+		for (let level = 0; level < probabilities.length - 1; level++) {
+			cumulative += probabilities[level];
+			sum += (cumulative - (level >= forecast.outcome ? 1 : 0)) ** 2;
+		}
+		total += sum / (probabilities.length - 1);
+	}
+	return total / forecasts.length;
+}
+function categoricalEntries(forecast, index, label) {
+	if (forecast === null || typeof forecast !== "object" || typeof forecast.outcome !== "string") throw new Error(`${label} forecast ${index} needs probabilities and a string outcome`);
+	const probabilities = forecast.probabilities;
+	if (probabilities === null || typeof probabilities !== "object" || Array.isArray(probabilities)) throw new Error(`${label} forecast ${index} probabilities must be an object keyed by outcome`);
+	const entries = Object.entries(probabilities);
+	if (entries.length < 2) throw new Error(`${label} forecast ${index} needs at least two outcomes`);
+	if (!entries.some(([name]) => name === forecast.outcome)) throw new Error(`${label} forecast ${index} has no probability for outcome ${JSON.stringify(forecast.outcome)}`);
+	assertDistribution(entries.map(([, probability]) => probability), `${label} forecast ${index}`);
+	return entries;
+}
+function assertDistribution(probabilities, label) {
+	let sum = 0;
+	for (const probability of probabilities) {
+		if (!(probability >= 0 && probability <= 1)) throw new Error(`${label} has a probability outside [0, 1]: ${probability}`);
+		sum += probability;
+	}
+	if (Math.abs(sum - 1) > 1e-6) throw new Error(`${label} probabilities sum to ${sum}, not 1`);
+}
 function toBin(chunk, lower, upper) {
 	const xs = chunk.map((c) => c.evalScore);
 	const ys = chunk.map((c) => c.outcome);
@@ -142,6 +201,67 @@ function validateCalibrationRequest(evalMetric, outcomeMetric, options) {
 	if (options.range !== void 0 && (!Number.isFinite(options.range.lo) || !Number.isFinite(options.range.hi) || !Number.isFinite(options.range.hi - options.range.lo) || options.range.hi < options.range.lo)) throw new Error("calibration range must have finite ordered bounds");
 }
 //#endregion
+//#region src/meta-eval/cluster-bootstrap.ts
+/**
+* Percentile cluster bootstrap of an observation mean. Whole clusters are resampled with
+* replacement and each resample's statistic is Σ values / Σ observations over the drawn
+* clusters, so observations that share a source move together and a large cluster cannot
+* pose as many independent results. For a paired comparison pass the per-observation
+* difference (candidate − baseline) under the observation's cluster.
+*
+* With one cluster the interval collapses to the point estimate: there is no between-cluster
+* spread to measure, which callers must treat as no interval, not as certainty.
+*/
+function clusterBootstrapMean(observations, options = {}) {
+	const confidence = options.confidence ?? .95;
+	const resamples = options.resamples ?? 2e3;
+	if (!(confidence > 0 && confidence < 1)) throw new ValidationError(`clusterBootstrapMean: confidence must be in (0,1), got ${confidence}`);
+	if (!Number.isInteger(resamples) || resamples < 1) throw new ValidationError(`clusterBootstrapMean: resamples must be a positive integer, got ${resamples}`);
+	if (!observations.length) throw new ValidationError("clusterBootstrapMean: requires at least one observation");
+	const sums = /* @__PURE__ */ new Map();
+	const values = [];
+	for (const [index, observation] of observations.entries()) {
+		if (typeof observation?.cluster !== "string" || observation.cluster === "") throw new ValidationError(`clusterBootstrapMean: observation ${index} needs a cluster id`);
+		if (!Number.isFinite(observation.value)) throw new ValidationError(`clusterBootstrapMean: observation ${index} value must be finite`);
+		const cell = sums.get(observation.cluster) ?? {
+			sum: 0,
+			count: 0
+		};
+		cell.sum += observation.value;
+		cell.count += 1;
+		sums.set(observation.cluster, cell);
+		values.push(observation.value);
+	}
+	const cells = [...sums.values()];
+	const mean = cells.reduce((acc, cell) => acc + cell.sum, 0) / observations.length;
+	const k = cells.length;
+	const rng = makeRng(options.seed, values);
+	const samples = new Array(resamples);
+	for (let b = 0; b < resamples; b++) {
+		let sum = 0;
+		let count = 0;
+		for (let draw = 0; draw < k; draw++) {
+			const cell = cells[Math.floor(rng() * k)];
+			sum += cell.sum;
+			count += cell.count;
+		}
+		samples[b] = sum / count;
+	}
+	samples.sort((a, b) => a - b);
+	const alpha = 1 - confidence;
+	const lowIdx = Math.floor(alpha / 2 * resamples);
+	const highIdx = Math.min(resamples - 1, Math.ceil((1 - alpha / 2) * resamples) - 1);
+	return {
+		n: observations.length,
+		clusters: k,
+		mean,
+		low: samples[lowIdx],
+		high: samples[Math.max(highIdx, lowIdx)],
+		confidence,
+		resamples
+	};
+}
+//#endregion
 //#region src/meta-eval/correlation-study.ts
 /**
 * Correlation study — "does our eval score predict real-world outcomes?"
@@ -1257,6 +1377,6 @@ function evalHealthStamp(report) {
 	};
 }
 //#endregion
-export { FileSystemOutcomeStore, InMemoryOutcomeStore, OutcomeStoreError, auditEvaluator, auditProbabilityPolicy, brierScore, calibrateJudge, calibrateJudgeContinuous, calibrationCurve, calibrationFromPairs, catchRate, continuousAgreement, correlationStudy, definePlant, evalHealthStamp, evaluatorAdmissionPolicySchema, evaluatorAuditObservationSchema, fileSentinelStore, inMemorySentinelStore, judgeSentinelReport, perturbEvidence, planEvaluatorAudit, plantByPerturbation, positionalBias, rubricPredictiveValidity, seedPlants, selfPreference, snapshotFromAgreement, snapshotFromCalibration, snapshotFromSentinelSet, validateSentinelSnapshot, verbosityBias };
+export { FileSystemOutcomeStore, InMemoryOutcomeStore, OutcomeStoreError, auditEvaluator, auditProbabilityPolicy, brierScore, calibrateJudge, calibrateJudgeContinuous, calibrationCurve, calibrationFromPairs, catchRate, clusterBootstrapMean, continuousAgreement, correlationStudy, definePlant, evalHealthStamp, evaluatorAdmissionPolicySchema, evaluatorAuditObservationSchema, fileSentinelStore, inMemorySentinelStore, judgeSentinelReport, multiclassBrierScore, perturbEvidence, planEvaluatorAudit, plantByPerturbation, positionalBias, rankedProbabilityScore, rubricPredictiveValidity, seedPlants, selfPreference, snapshotFromAgreement, snapshotFromCalibration, snapshotFromSentinelSet, validateSentinelSnapshot, verbosityBias };
 
 //# sourceMappingURL=index.js.map