@tangle-network/agent-eval 0.204.0 → 0.205.0

package/dist/internal-BOe3zmjQ.js.map

@@ -1 +0,0 @@
-{"version":3,"file":"internal-BOe3zmjQ.js","names":[],"sources":["../src/math/special-functions.ts","../src/statistics/internal.ts"],"sourcesContent":["/** Lanczos approximation to ln Gamma(z). */\nexport function lnGamma(z: number): number {\n  const g = 7\n  const coefficients = [\n    0.99999999999980993, 676.5203681218851, -1259.1392167224028, 771.32342877765313,\n    -176.61502916214059, 12.507343278686905, -0.13857109526572012, 9.9843695780195716e-6,\n    1.5056327351493116e-7,\n  ]\n  if (z < 0.5) {\n    return Math.log(Math.PI / Math.sin(Math.PI * z)) - lnGamma(1 - z)\n  }\n  z -= 1\n  let x = coefficients[0]!\n  for (let i = 1; i < g + 2; i++) x += coefficients[i]! / (z + i)\n  const t = z + g + 0.5\n  return 0.5 * Math.log(2 * Math.PI) + (z + 0.5) * Math.log(t) - t + Math.log(x)\n}\n\n/**\n * Regularized incomplete beta function I_x(a, b).\n *\n * The Lentz continued fraction converges only for `x < (a+1)/(a+b+2)`; outside\n * that domain it must be reached through the symmetry `I_x(a,b) = 1 −\n * I_{1−x}(b,a)`. `studentTCdf` drives `x → 1` as `|t| → 0`, so the mirrored\n * branch is the one every near-null t-statistic takes.\n */\nexport function regularizedIncompleteBeta(x: number, a: number, b: number): number {\n  if (x <= 0) return 0\n  if (x >= 1) return 1\n  const logBeta = lnGamma(a) + lnGamma(b) - lnGamma(a + b)\n  // x^a·(1−x)^b / B(a,b) — symmetric under (x,a,b) → (1−x,b,a), so the\n  // mirrored branch reuses it unchanged.\n  const front = Math.exp(Math.log(x) * a + Math.log(1 - x) * b - logBeta)\n  if (x < (a + 1) / (a + b + 2)) {\n    return (front * betaContinuedFraction(x, a, b)) / a\n  }\n  return 1 - (front * betaContinuedFraction(1 - x, b, a)) / b\n}\n\n/** Modified Lentz evaluation of the beta continued fraction at `x`. */\nfunction betaContinuedFraction(x: number, a: number, b: number): number {\n  const maxIterations = 300\n  const epsilon = 3e-15\n  let c = 1\n  let d = 1 - ((a + b) * x) / (a + 1)\n  if (Math.abs(d) < 1e-30) d = 1e-30\n  d = 1 / d\n  let fraction = d\n  for (let m = 1; m <= maxIterations; m++) {\n    const m2 = 2 * m\n    let numerator = (m * (b - m) * x) / ((a + m2 - 1) * (a + m2))\n    d = 1 + numerator * d\n    if (Math.abs(d) < 1e-30) d = 1e-30\n    c = 1 + numerator / c\n    if (Math.abs(c) < 1e-30) c = 1e-30\n    d = 1 / d\n    fraction *= d * c\n    numerator = -((a + m) * (a + b + m) * x) / ((a + m2) * (a + m2 + 1))\n    d = 1 + numerator * d\n    if (Math.abs(d) < 1e-30) d = 1e-30\n    c = 1 + numerator / c\n    if (Math.abs(c) < 1e-30) c = 1e-30\n    d = 1 / d\n    const delta = d * c\n    fraction *= delta\n    if (Math.abs(delta - 1) < epsilon) break\n  }\n  return fraction\n}\n","/**\n * Shared internals for the statistics modules. Nothing here is part of the\n * public statistics surface — `./index` does not re-export this module.\n */\n\nimport { ValidationError } from '../errors'\nimport { lnGamma } from '../math/special-functions'\nimport { mulberry32 } from './random'\n\n/** Every rank test refuses non-finite input. Beyond the arithmetic being\n *  undefined, the tie-grouping scan compares values with `===`, and\n *  `NaN === NaN` is false, so a NaN would leave the group boundary unable to\n *  advance and spin the loop forever. */\nexport function assertFiniteSample(fn: string, label: string, xs: readonly number[]): void {\n  for (let i = 0; i < xs.length; i++) {\n    if (!Number.isFinite(xs[i])) {\n      throw new ValidationError(`${fn}: ${label}[${i}] must be finite, got ${xs[i]}`)\n    }\n  }\n}\n\n/**\n * Two-sided exact p-value for b successes out of (b + c) Bernoulli(0.5) trials —\n * the exact-binomial core of {@link mcnemar}. `min(1, 2·P(X ≤ min(b,c)))`. No\n * discordant pairs ⇒ no evidence ⇒ p = 1. Summed in log space (lnGamma) so it\n * stays exact at large discordant counts without overflow.\n */\nexport function binomialSignTwoSided(b: number, c: number): number {\n  const nd = b + c\n  if (nd === 0) return 1\n  return Math.min(1, 2 * binomialHalfLowerTail(Math.min(b, c), nd))\n}\n\n/** P(X >= successes) for X ~ Binomial(n, 0.5). */\nexport function binomialHalfUpperTail(successes: number, n: number): number {\n  if (successes <= 0) return 1\n  if (successes > n) return 0\n\n  // Use the smaller side of the distribution. For lower thresholds the\n  // complement sums at most half the mass; for upper thresholds symmetry\n  // maps the upper tail to a lower tail without subtraction.\n  if (successes <= n / 2) {\n    return Math.max(0, 1 - binomialHalfLowerTail(successes - 1, n))\n  }\n  return binomialHalfLowerTail(n - successes, n)\n}\n\n/** P(X <= maxSuccesses) for X ~ Binomial(n, 0.5), accumulated in log space. */\nfunction binomialHalfLowerTail(maxSuccesses: number, n: number): number {\n  if (maxSuccesses < 0) return 0\n  if (maxSuccesses >= n) return 1\n  if (maxSuccesses === 0) return 2 ** -n\n\n  const logHalfN = n * Math.log(0.5)\n  let logTail = Number.NEGATIVE_INFINITY\n  for (let i = 0; i <= maxSuccesses; i++) {\n    const logChoose = lnGamma(n + 1) - lnGamma(i + 1) - lnGamma(n - i + 1)\n    logTail = logAddExp(logTail, logChoose + logHalfN)\n  }\n  return Math.min(1, Math.exp(logTail))\n}\n\nfunction logAddExp(a: number, b: number): number {\n  if (a === Number.NEGATIVE_INFINITY) return b\n  if (b === Number.NEGATIVE_INFINITY) return a\n  const max = Math.max(a, b)\n  const min = Math.min(a, b)\n  return max + Math.log1p(Math.exp(min - max))\n}\n\n/** Standard-normal inverse CDF (Acklam approximation). */\nexport function zQuantile(p: number): number {\n  if (p <= 0 || p >= 1) {\n    if (p === 0) return -Infinity\n    if (p === 1) return Infinity\n    return NaN\n  }\n  const a = [\n    -3.969683028665376e1, 2.209460984245205e2, -2.759285104469687e2, 1.38357751867269e2,\n    -3.066479806614716e1, 2.506628277459239,\n  ]\n  const b = [\n    -5.447609879822406e1, 1.615858368580409e2, -1.556989798598866e2, 6.680131188771972e1,\n    -1.328068155288572e1,\n  ]\n  const c = [\n    -7.784894002430293e-3, -3.223964580411365e-1, -2.400758277161838, -2.549732539343734,\n    4.374664141464968, 2.938163982698783,\n  ]\n  const d = [7.784695709041462e-3, 3.224671290700398e-1, 2.445134137142996, 3.754408661907416]\n  const pLow = 0.02425\n  const pHigh = 1 - pLow\n  let q: number\n  let r: number\n  if (p < pLow) {\n    q = Math.sqrt(-2 * Math.log(p))\n    return (\n      (((((c[0]! * q + c[1]!) * q + c[2]!) * q + c[3]!) * q + c[4]!) * q + c[5]!) /\n      ((((d[0]! * q + d[1]!) * q + d[2]!) * q + d[3]!) * q + 1)\n    )\n  }\n  if (p <= pHigh) {\n    q = p - 0.5\n    r = q * q\n    return (\n      ((((((a[0]! * r + a[1]!) * r + a[2]!) * r + a[3]!) * r + a[4]!) * r + a[5]!) * q) /\n      (((((b[0]! * r + b[1]!) * r + b[2]!) * r + b[3]!) * r + b[4]!) * r + 1)\n    )\n  }\n  q = Math.sqrt(-2 * Math.log(1 - p))\n  return (\n    -(((((c[0]! * q + c[1]!) * q + c[2]!) * q + c[3]!) * q + c[4]!) * q + c[5]!) /\n    ((((d[0]! * q + d[1]!) * q + d[2]!) * q + d[3]!) * q + 1)\n  )\n}\n\nexport function medianInPlace(xs: number[]): number {\n  if (xs.length === 0) return 0\n  xs.sort((a, b) => a - b)\n  const mid = Math.floor(xs.length / 2)\n  return xs.length % 2 === 0 ? (xs[mid - 1]! + xs[mid]!) / 2 : xs[mid]!\n}\n\n/**\n * PRNG for every resampling path in this module.\n *\n * With no caller seed the seed is DERIVED FROM THE DATA rather than taken from\n * `Math.random`, so re-running the same input reproduces the same interval —\n * a gate verdict that cannot be re-derived is not evidence. Distinct data\n * still gets a distinct stream. Same pattern as `promotion-gate.ts`.\n */\nexport function makeRng(\n  seed: number | undefined,\n  ...series: readonly (readonly number[])[]\n): () => number {\n  return mulberry32(seed ?? seedFromData(series))\n}\n\n/** FNV-1a over the IEEE-754 bytes of every observation. */\nfunction seedFromData(series: readonly (readonly number[])[]): number {\n  const view = new DataView(new ArrayBuffer(8))\n  // 32-bit FNV-1a over the IEEE-754 BYTES of each observation, not over a\n  // string. Frozen: it seeds the unseeded bootstrap from the data itself, so a\n  // change moves every interval this package has already published. The\n  // string-input variants elsewhere cannot be substituted here.\n  let hash = 0x811c9dc5\n  for (const xs of series) {\n    for (const x of xs) {\n      view.setFloat64(0, x)\n      for (let byte = 0; byte < 8; byte++) {\n        hash = Math.imul(hash ^ view.getUint8(byte), 0x01000193)\n      }\n    }\n    // Separator, so ([1],[2]) and ([1,2],[]) do not collide.\n    hash = Math.imul(hash ^ 0xff, 0x01000193)\n  }\n  return hash | 0\n}\n\n/** Order-independent seed for a symmetric two-sample statistic. */\nexport function symmetricTwoSampleSeed(a: readonly number[], b: readonly number[]): number {\n  const sortedA = [...a].sort((left, right) => left - right)\n  const sortedB = [...b].sort((left, right) => left - right)\n  const forward = seedFromData([sortedA, sortedB]) >>> 0\n  const reversed = seedFromData([sortedB, sortedA]) >>> 0\n  return Math.min(forward, 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package/dist/judge-calibration-C5zgtiJT.js.map

@@ -1 +0,0 @@
-{"version":3,"file":"judge-calibration-C5zgtiJT.js","names":[],"sources":["../src/judge-calibration.ts"],"sourcesContent":["/**\n * Judge calibration — measure judge quality against human gold + bias.\n *\n * Workflow:\n *   1. Build a golden set: {itemId, humanScore}[].\n *   2. Run candidate judges; each produces {itemId, score}.\n *   3. `calibrateJudge(golden, candidate)` reports κ + Pearson + MAE.\n *   4. `calibrateJudgeContinuous(golden, candidate)` adds quadratic-weighted\n *      κ over the un-rounded [0,1] scores plus ICC(2,1), Pearson, Spearman,\n *      and bootstrap CIs — use this for fine-grained judges where rounding\n *      to int discards information (e.g. 0.78 vs 0.81 both round to 1 and\n *      look \"perfectly agreed\" to integer κ).\n *   5. Run bias probes (positional, verbosity, self-preference) to\n *      detect systematic score inflation.\n *   6. For N≥2 judges on the same items, `continuousAgreement(scores)`\n *      reports ICC(2,1) + κ_w + Pearson + Spearman with bootstrap CIs.\n *\n * Returns actionable diagnostics, not a single number. Consumers then\n * decide whether to trust the judge, retrain it, or add a tie-breaker.\n */\n\nimport { pearsonR, spearmanR } from './statistics/descriptive'\nimport { mulberry32 } from './statistics/random'\n\nexport interface GoldenItem {\n  itemId: string\n  humanScore: number\n  /** Optional group used for per-group bias audits (e.g. model-of-output family). */\n  group?: string\n}\n\nexport interface CandidateScore {\n  itemId: string\n  score: number\n  /** Optional — enables positional-bias analysis (did order matter?). */\n  positionOfAInput?: 'first' | 'second'\n}\n\nexport interface CalibrationResult {\n  n: number\n  pearson: number\n  /** Cohen's κ with quadratic weights over integer-rounded scores. */\n  kappa: number\n  /** Mean absolute error vs human. */\n  mae: number\n  /** Worst-5 miscalibrations (largest |judge - human|). */\n  worstItems: Array<{ itemId: string; judge: number; human: number; delta: number }>\n}\n\n/**\n * Measure judge quality against human gold labels: computes Cohen's κ, Pearson correlation, and MAE over matched item ids.\n */\nexport function calibrateJudge(\n  golden: GoldenItem[],\n  candidate: CandidateScore[],\n): CalibrationResult {\n  const map = new Map<string, { h: number; j: number }>()\n  for (const g of golden) map.set(g.itemId, { h: g.humanScore, j: NaN })\n  for (const c of candidate) {\n    const entry = map.get(c.itemId)\n    if (entry) entry.j = c.score\n  }\n  const common = [...map.values()].filter((v) => Number.isFinite(v.j))\n  const n = common.length\n  if (n < 2) {\n    return { n, pearson: NaN, kappa: NaN, mae: NaN, worstItems: [] }\n  }\n  const humans = common.map((c) => c.h)\n  const judges = common.map((c) => c.j)\n  const pearson = pearsonR(humans, judges)\n  const kappa = weightedKappa(humans.map(Math.round), judges.map(Math.round))\n  const absDiffs = common.map((c) => Math.abs(c.j - c.h))\n  const mae = absDiffs.reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0) / n\n  const worst = [...map.entries()]\n    .filter(([, v]) => Number.isFinite(v.j))\n    .map(([itemId, v]) => ({ itemId, judge: v.j, human: v.h, delta: Math.abs(v.j - v.h) }))\n    .sort((a, b) => b.delta - a.delta)\n    .slice(0, 5)\n  return { n, pearson, kappa, mae, worstItems: worst }\n}\n\nexport interface PositionalBiasResult {\n  /**\n   * Score delta (first-position - second-position) averaged across items\n   * presented in both positions. Non-zero = positional bias.\n   */\n  avgDelta: number\n  n: number\n}\n\n/**\n * Feed the same items to the judge twice with A/B swapped and pass all\n * results here. Items that don't appear in both positions are ignored.\n */\nexport function positionalBias(scores: CandidateScore[]): PositionalBiasResult {\n  const pairs = new Map<string, { first?: number; second?: number }>()\n  for (const s of scores) {\n    const slot = pairs.get(s.itemId) ?? {}\n    if (s.positionOfAInput === 'first') slot.first = s.score\n    else if (s.positionOfAInput === 'second') slot.second = s.score\n    pairs.set(s.itemId, slot)\n  }\n  const deltas: number[] = []\n  for (const { first, second } of pairs.values()) {\n    if (first !== undefined && second !== undefined) deltas.push(first - second)\n  }\n  if (deltas.length === 0) return { avgDelta: 0, n: 0 }\n  return { avgDelta: deltas.reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0) / deltas.length, n: deltas.length }\n}\n\nexport interface VerbosityBiasResult {\n  /** Pearson correlation between output length and score. Strong positive = verbosity bias. */\n  pearson: number\n  n: number\n}\n\nexport function verbosityBias(\n  samples: Array<{ outputLen: number; score: number }>,\n): VerbosityBiasResult {\n  const n = samples.length\n  if (n < 3) return { pearson: NaN, n }\n  return {\n    pearson: pearsonR(\n      samples.map((s) => s.outputLen),\n      samples.map((s) => s.score),\n    ),\n    n,\n  }\n}\n\nexport interface SelfPreferenceResult {\n  /** Mean judge score when judge's family matches output's family. */\n  inFamilyMean: number\n  outOfFamilyMean: number\n  deltaMean: number\n  n: number\n}\n\n/**\n * Pass the same scenarios scored with judge-model X grading outputs from\n * model X (in-family) and model Y (out-of-family). Non-zero delta\n * indicates self-preference.\n */\nexport function selfPreference(\n  samples: Array<{ score: number; inFamily: boolean }>,\n): SelfPreferenceResult {\n  const inF = samples.filter((s) => s.inFamily).map((s) => s.score)\n  const outF = samples.filter((s) => !s.inFamily).map((s) => s.score)\n  if (inF.length === 0 || outF.length === 0)\n    return { inFamilyMean: 0, outOfFamilyMean: 0, deltaMean: 0, n: 0 }\n  const inMean = inF.reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0) / inF.length\n  const outMean = outF.reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0) / outF.length\n  return {\n    inFamilyMean: inMean,\n    outOfFamilyMean: outMean,\n    deltaMean: inMean - outMean,\n    n: samples.length,\n  }\n}\n\n// ── Helpers ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────\n\n/** Quadratic weighted Cohen's κ over bounded integer scores. */\nfunction weightedKappa(a: number[], b: number[]): number {\n  if (a.length !== b.length || a.length === 0) return NaN\n  const min = Math.min(...a, ...b)\n  const max = Math.max(...a, ...b)\n  const K = max - min + 1\n  if (K < 2) return 1\n  const observed: number[][] = Array.from({ length: K }, () => new Array(K).fill(0))\n  const rowMarg = new Array(K).fill(0)\n  const colMarg = new Array(K).fill(0)\n  for (let i = 0; i < a.length; i++) {\n    const ai = a[i]! - min\n    const bi = b[i]! - min\n    const row = observed[ai]!\n    row[bi] = (row[bi] ?? 0) + 1\n    rowMarg[ai]++\n    colMarg[bi]++\n  }\n  let num = 0\n  let den = 0\n  for (let i = 0; i < K; i++) {\n    for (let j = 0; j < K; j++) {\n      const w = (i - j) ** 2 / (K - 1) ** 2\n      const expected = (rowMarg[i] * colMarg[j]) / a.length\n      num += w * observed[i]![j]!\n      den += w * expected\n    }\n  }\n  if (den === 0) return 1\n  return 1 - num / den\n}\n\n// ── Continuous-value inter-rater agreement ──────────────────────────\n//\n// `weightedKappa` above quantises to integers. For [0,1] judges that is\n// lossy: 0.78 and 0.81 both round to 1 and look identical to integer κ.\n// `continuousAgreement` keeps the original magnitudes:\n//\n//   - κ_w   : Cohen's weighted κ generalised to continuous scores. For two\n//             raters, weighted κ = 1 − Σ w_ij·o_ij / Σ w_ij·e_ij collapses\n//             into the closed form below when each \"category\" is the score\n//             itself (Janson & Olsson 2001; Cohen 1968 quadratic weights).\n//   - ICC   : Intraclass Correlation Coefficient, ICC(2,1) per Shrout &\n//             Fleiss (1979) — two-way random effects, absolute agreement,\n//             single rater. The right reliability coefficient when judges\n//             are a random sample of the judge population.\n//   - r, ρ  : Pearson + Spearman for sanity-check. Pearson catches linear\n//             association regardless of scale; Spearman catches monotone\n//             association regardless of distribution.\n//   - CIs   : Bootstrap percentile CIs over items (rows). Bias is preserved\n//             because we resample the full row, i.e. a judge's vector\n//             stays internally consistent within each bootstrap replicate.\n//\n// References:\n//   - Shrout, P. E. & Fleiss, J. L. (1979). Intraclass correlations: uses\n//     in assessing rater reliability. Psychological Bulletin, 86(2), 420.\n//   - McGraw, K. O. & Wong, S. P. (1996). Forming inferences about some\n//     intraclass correlation coefficients. Psychological Methods, 1, 30.\n//   - Janson, H. & Olsson, U. (2001). A measure of agreement for interval\n//     or nominal multivariate observations. Educ. Psychol. Meas., 61, 277.\n\nexport interface ContinuousAgreement {\n  /** Cohen's κ_w with quadratic weights, computed on raw [0,1] scores. */\n  weightedKappa: number\n  /** ICC(2,1): two-way random effects, absolute agreement, single rater. */\n  icc: number\n  /** Pearson product-moment correlation (averaged over rater pairs if N>2). */\n  pearson: number\n  /** Spearman rank correlation (averaged over rater pairs if N>2). */\n  spearman: number\n  /** 95% bootstrap percentile CIs over items. */\n  ci: {\n    icc: [number, number]\n    weightedKappa: [number, number]\n  }\n  /** Number of complete items (no NaN across raters). */\n  n: number\n  /** Number of raters. */\n  raters: number\n}\n\nexport interface ContinuousAgreementOptions {\n  /** Bootstrap iterations. Default 1000. Set to 0 to skip CIs (CI = [NaN, NaN]). */\n  bootstrap?: number\n  /** κ weighting scheme. Default 'quadratic'. */\n  weights?: 'linear' | 'quadratic'\n  /** PRNG seed for reproducible bootstrap. Default 0xC0FFEE. */\n  seed?: number\n  /** Confidence level for percentile CI. Default 0.95. */\n  ciLevel?: number\n}\n\n/**\n * Inter-rater agreement on continuous (typically [0,1]) scores.\n *\n * `scores` has shape [n_items][n_raters]. Rows with any non-finite entry\n * are dropped. Returns NaN metrics if fewer than 2 raters or 2 complete\n * items remain.\n */\nexport function continuousAgreement(\n  scores: number[][],\n  opts: ContinuousAgreementOptions = {},\n): ContinuousAgreement {\n  const bootstrap = opts.bootstrap ?? 1000\n  const weights = opts.weights ?? 'quadratic'\n  const seed = opts.seed ?? 0xc0ffee\n  const ciLevel = opts.ciLevel ?? 0.95\n\n  const matrix = scores.filter((row) => row.length >= 2 && row.every((v) => Number.isFinite(v)))\n  const raters = matrix[0]?.length ?? 0\n  // All rows must have the same rater count, else drop the offenders.\n  const clean = matrix.filter((row) => row.length === raters)\n  const nClean = clean.length\n\n  if (nClean < 2 || raters < 2) {\n    return {\n      weightedKappa: NaN,\n      icc: NaN,\n      pearson: NaN,\n      spearman: NaN,\n      ci: { icc: [NaN, NaN], weightedKappa: [NaN, NaN] },\n      n: nClean,\n      raters,\n    }\n  }\n\n  const kappa = continuousWeightedKappa(clean, weights)\n  const icc = icc21(clean)\n  const pearson = avgPairwise(clean, pearsonR)\n  const spearman = avgPairwise(clean, spearmanR)\n\n  const ciIcc: [number, number] = [NaN, NaN]\n  const ciKappa: [number, number] = [NaN, NaN]\n  if (bootstrap > 0) {\n    const rng = mulberry32(seed)\n    const iccs: number[] = []\n    const kappas: number[] = []\n    for (let b = 0; b < bootstrap; b++) {\n      const sample: number[][] = new Array(nClean)\n      for (let i = 0; i < nClean; i++) {\n        sample[i] = clean[Math.floor(rng() * nClean)]!\n      }\n      const iccB = icc21(sample)\n      const kB = continuousWeightedKappa(sample, weights)\n      if (Number.isFinite(iccB)) iccs.push(iccB)\n      if (Number.isFinite(kB)) kappas.push(kB)\n    }\n    const [lo, hi] = percentileBounds(ciLevel)\n    if (iccs.length > 0) {\n      iccs.sort((a, b) => a - b)\n      ciIcc[0] = quantile(iccs, lo)\n      ciIcc[1] = quantile(iccs, hi)\n    }\n    if (kappas.length > 0) {\n      kappas.sort((a, b) => a - b)\n      ciKappa[0] = quantile(kappas, lo)\n      ciKappa[1] = quantile(kappas, hi)\n    }\n  }\n\n  return {\n    weightedKappa: kappa,\n    icc,\n    pearson,\n    spearman,\n    ci: { icc: ciIcc, weightedKappa: ciKappa },\n    n: nClean,\n    raters,\n  }\n}\n\nexport interface ContinuousCalibrationResult extends CalibrationResult {\n  /** Cohen's κ_w computed on raw (un-rounded) scores. */\n  weightedKappaContinuous: number\n  /** ICC(2,1) treating golden + candidate as two raters. */\n  icc: number\n  spearman: number\n  ci: {\n    icc: [number, number]\n    weightedKappa: [number, number]\n  }\n}\n\n/**\n * Extends `calibrateJudge` with continuous-value agreement metrics while\n * retaining its base calibration summary.\n */\nexport function calibrateJudgeContinuous(\n  golden: GoldenItem[],\n  candidate: CandidateScore[],\n  opts: ContinuousAgreementOptions = {},\n): ContinuousCalibrationResult {\n  const base = calibrateJudge(golden, candidate)\n  const map = new Map<string, { h: number; j: number }>()\n  for (const g of golden) map.set(g.itemId, { h: g.humanScore, j: NaN })\n  for (const c of candidate) {\n    const entry = map.get(c.itemId)\n    if (entry) entry.j = c.score\n  }\n  const rows: number[][] = []\n  for (const v of map.values()) {\n    if (Number.isFinite(v.j)) rows.push([v.h, v.j])\n  }\n  const agreement = continuousAgreement(rows, opts)\n  return {\n    ...base,\n    weightedKappaContinuous: agreement.weightedKappa,\n    icc: agreement.icc,\n    spearman: agreement.spearman,\n    ci: agreement.ci,\n  }\n}\n\n// ── Continuous-agreement internals ──────────────────────────────────\n\n/**\n * Quadratic-weighted κ on continuous scores. With weights w(x,y) = (x-y)^2\n * (or |x-y| for linear) the formula collapses to:\n *\n *   κ_w = 1 − E_obs[w] / E_exp[w]\n *\n * where E_obs averages w over paired (a_i, b_i) and E_exp averages w over\n * the independent product distribution (sum_{i,j} w(a_i, b_j) / n^2).\n * The normalisation by (max-min)^2 in the integer version cancels in the\n * ratio, so we don't need it here. Generalises to N raters by averaging κ_w\n * over all rater pairs (mean pairwise weighted agreement).\n */\nfunction continuousWeightedKappa(rows: number[][], scheme: 'linear' | 'quadratic'): number {\n  if (rows.length === 0) return NaN\n  const raters = rows[0]!.length\n  if (raters < 2) return NaN\n  const wFn =\n    scheme === 'linear'\n      ? (x: number, y: number) => Math.abs(x - y)\n      : (x: number, y: number) => (x - y) ** 2\n  let sum = 0\n  let pairs = 0\n  for (let r1 = 0; r1 < raters; r1++) {\n    for (let r2 = r1 + 1; r2 < raters; r2++) {\n      const a = rows.map((row) => row[r1]!)\n      const b = rows.map((row) => row[r2]!)\n      const n = a.length\n      let obs = 0\n      for (let i = 0; i < n; i++) obs += wFn(a[i]!, b[i]!)\n      obs /= n\n      // Expected under independence: average of w over all i,j cross pairs.\n      let exp = 0\n      for (let i = 0; i < n; i++) {\n        for (let j = 0; j < n; j++) exp += wFn(a[i]!, b[j]!)\n      }\n      exp /= n * n\n      if (exp === 0) {\n        // Degenerate: at least one rater is constant. Convention: perfect\n        // agreement iff observed disagreement is also zero, else 0.\n        sum += obs === 0 ? 1 : 0\n      } else {\n        sum += 1 - obs / exp\n      }\n      pairs++\n    }\n  }\n  return pairs === 0 ? NaN : sum / pairs\n}\n\n/**\n * ICC(2,1) — two-way random effects, absolute agreement, single rater.\n *\n *   ICC(2,1) = (MSR − MSE) / (MSR + (k−1)·MSE + k·(MSC − MSE)/n)\n *\n * where MSR = between-rows MS, MSC = between-columns MS, MSE = residual MS,\n * n = rows (items), k = columns (raters).\n */\nfunction icc21(rows: number[][]): number {\n  const n = rows.length\n  if (n < 2) return NaN\n  const k = rows[0]!.length\n  if (k < 2) return NaN\n\n  // Row means.\n  const rowMeans = rows.map((row) => row.reduce((s, v) => s + v, 0) / k)\n  // Column means.\n  const colMeans = new Array(k).fill(0)\n  for (let j = 0; j < k; j++) {\n    let s = 0\n    for (let i = 0; i < n; i++) s += rows[i]![j]!\n    colMeans[j] = s / n\n  }\n  // Grand mean.\n  let grand = 0\n  for (let i = 0; i < n; i++) grand += rowMeans[i]!\n  grand /= n\n\n  let ssR = 0\n  for (let i = 0; i < n; i++) ssR += (rowMeans[i]! - grand) ** 2\n  ssR *= k\n  let ssC = 0\n  for (let j = 0; j < k; j++) ssC += (colMeans[j]! - grand) ** 2\n  ssC *= n\n  let ssT = 0\n  for (let i = 0; i < n; i++) {\n    for (let j = 0; j < k; j++) ssT += (rows[i]![j]! - grand) ** 2\n  }\n  const ssE = ssT - ssR - ssC\n\n  const dfR = n - 1\n  const dfC = k - 1\n  const dfE = (n - 1) * (k - 1)\n  const msR = ssR / dfR\n  const msC = ssC / dfC\n  const msE = dfE > 0 ? ssE / dfE : 0\n\n  const denom = msR + (k - 1) * msE + (k * (msC - msE)) / n\n  if (denom === 0) {\n    // Degenerate (all values equal): convention = 1 if rows identical,\n    // else 0. Identical rows ⇒ msR = 0 too, so msR − msE near 0.\n    return msR === 0 && msE === 0 ? 1 : 0\n  }\n  return (msR - msE) / denom\n}\n\n/** Average pairwise statistic over all rater pairs. */\nfunction avgPairwise(rows: number[][], fn: (a: number[], b: number[]) => number): number {\n  const k = rows[0]?.length ?? 0\n  if (k < 2) return NaN\n  let sum = 0\n  let pairs = 0\n  for (let i = 0; i < k; i++) {\n    for (let j = i + 1; j < k; j++) {\n      const a = rows.map((row) => row[i]!)\n      const b = rows.map((row) => row[j]!)\n      const r = fn(a, b)\n      if (Number.isFinite(r)) {\n        sum += r\n        pairs++\n      }\n    }\n  }\n  return pairs === 0 ? NaN : sum / pairs\n}\n\nfunction percentileBounds(ciLevel: number): [number, number] {\n  const tail = (1 - ciLevel) / 2\n  return [tail, 1 - tail]\n}\n\n/** Linear-interpolated quantile of a pre-sorted ascending array. */\nfunction quantile(sorted: number[], q: number): number {\n  if (sorted.length === 0) return NaN\n  if (sorted.length === 1) return sorted[0]!\n  const pos = q * (sorted.length - 1)\n  const lo = Math.floor(pos)\n  const hi = Math.ceil(pos)\n  if (lo === hi) return sorted[lo]!\n  const frac = pos - lo\n  return sorted[lo]! * (1 - frac) + sorted[hi]! * 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package/dist/matrix-DnlHn5x1.js.map

@@ -1 +0,0 @@
-{"version":3,"file":"matrix-DnlHn5x1.js","names":[],"sources":["../src/matrix/cell-spend.ts","../src/matrix/aggregation.ts","../src/matrix/runner.ts"],"sourcesContent":["/**\n * Spend carrier for a cell that fails after it has already spent money.\n *\n * `runCell` reports what a cell cost by returning a `CellResult`. A throw\n * carries no result, so the runner cannot know what the cell spent before it\n * failed: the cumulative sum the cost ceiling reads, and `totalCostUsd`, both\n * miss that money. A throw that carries a `CellSpend` closes the gap — the\n * runner bills the failed cell for the spend the carrier declares, and records\n * a cell that declared nothing as `uncaptured` instead of a zero that reads\n * like \"this cell spent nothing\".\n *\n * The carrier is read structurally, never by `instanceof`, so a throw that\n * crosses a package or realm boundary still bills.\n */\n\n/** Property key the carrier occupies on a thrown object. Stable across\n *  versions — two copies of this package must agree on it. */\nconst CELL_SPEND_KEY = '__agentEvalCellSpend'\n\n/** Money and wall time a cell consumed before it threw. */\nexport interface CellSpend {\n  /** KNOWN subtotal in USD. When `kind` is `uncaptured` the cell spent this\n   *  much AND an unknown amount more, so the value must not be read as the\n   *  cell's total. */\n  costUsd: number\n  /** Wall time the cell consumed before the throw, in milliseconds. */\n  durationMs: number\n  /** `observed` = provider-reported amounts, `estimated` = computed from token\n   *  prices, `uncaptured` = `costUsd` is a subtotal and part of the spend\n   *  could not be measured. */\n  kind: 'observed' | 'estimated' | 'uncaptured'\n}\n\n/**\n * Return `error` carrying `spend`, for a throw site inside `runCell`:\n * `throw withCellSpend(err, { costUsd, durationMs, kind })`.\n *\n * A value that cannot hold the carrier — a thrown string or number, or a\n * frozen, sealed, or otherwise non-extensible object — is wrapped in an\n * `Error` that keeps the original as `cause`, so the spend is never dropped.\n * A later call overwrites an earlier carrier — the outer frame knows more\n * than the inner one.\n *\n * Throws `TypeError` on a non-finite or negative amount. A poisoned amount\n * would reach `cumulativeCost` and disable the cost ceiling for the whole run,\n * because `NaN >= ceiling` is false.\n */\nexport function withCellSpend(error: unknown, spend: CellSpend): unknown {\n  assertAmount(spend.costUsd, 'costUsd')\n  assertAmount(spend.durationMs, 'durationMs')\n  if (spend.kind !== 'observed' && spend.kind !== 'estimated' && spend.kind !== 'uncaptured') {\n    throw new TypeError(\n      `withCellSpend: kind must be observed, estimated or uncaptured, received ${String(spend.kind)}`,\n    )\n  }\n  const carrier: CellSpend = {\n    costUsd: spend.costUsd,\n    durationMs: spend.durationMs,\n    kind: spend.kind,\n  }\n  if (typeof error === 'object' && error !== null && attach(error, carrier)) return error\n  // A primitive cannot hold a property, and a frozen or sealed object refuses\n  // one. Carry the spend on a fresh Error that keeps the original as `cause`\n  // rather than lose it — a dropped carrier bills the cell as uncaptured,\n  // which is the under-billing this module exists to prevent.\n  const wrapper = new Error(`cell failed: ${messageOf(error)}`, { cause: error })\n  attach(wrapper, carrier)\n  return wrapper\n}\n\n/** True when the carrier landed. `defineProperty` throws on a non-extensible\n *  target, so the caller must be able to fall back. */\nfunction attach(target: object, carrier: CellSpend): boolean {\n  try {\n    Object.defineProperty(target, CELL_SPEND_KEY, {\n      value: carrier,\n      enumerable: false,\n      configurable: true,\n      writable: true,\n    })\n    return true\n  } catch {\n    return false\n  }\n}\n\nfunction messageOf(error: unknown): string {\n  if (error instanceof Error) return error.message\n  return String(error)\n}\n\n/** Read the spend a thrown value carries. `undefined` when the value carries\n *  none, or carries one that does not satisfy `CellSpend` — the runner records\n *  both as `uncaptured`. */\nexport function readCellSpend(error: unknown): CellSpend | undefined {\n  if (typeof error !== 'object' || error === null) return undefined\n  const raw = (error as Record<string, unknown>)[CELL_SPEND_KEY]\n  if (typeof raw !== 'object' || raw === null) return undefined\n  const candidate = raw as Record<string, unknown>\n  if (!isAmount(candidate.costUsd) || !isAmount(candidate.durationMs)) return undefined\n  const kind = candidate.kind\n  if (kind !== 'observed' && kind !== 'estimated' && kind !== 'uncaptured') return undefined\n  return { costUsd: candidate.costUsd, durationMs: candidate.durationMs, kind }\n}\n\n/** A number the matrix can add to a running cost or duration: finite and not\n *  negative. Anything else would poison a sum the cost ceiling reads. */\nexport function isAmount(value: unknown): value is number {\n  return typeof value === 'number' && Number.isFinite(value) && value >= 0\n}\n\nfunction assertAmount(value: number, field: string): void {\n  if (!isAmount(value)) {\n    throw new TypeError(\n      `withCellSpend: ${field} must be a finite number >= 0, received ${String(value)}`,\n    )\n  }\n}\n","/**\n * Per-axis aggregation of cell runs into `AxisSummary` rows.\n *\n * Pure: consumes the final `cells: [{cell, runs}]` array and returns the\n * `byAxis` table. Error runs contribute 0 to passRate and meanScore. Cost and\n * duration always count — the budget was spent regardless. A run whose cost is\n * a subtotal rather than a total raises `costUncapturedCells` for its bucket,\n * so a per-axis cost row says when it under-counts.\n */\n\nimport type { AxisSummary, CellResult, MatrixAxis, MatrixCell, MatrixResult } from './types'\n\ninterface Row<Output> {\n  cell: MatrixCell\n  result: CellResult<Output>\n}\n\nfunction flattenRuns<Output>(cells: MatrixResult<Output>['cells']): Row<Output>[] {\n  const rows: Row<Output>[] = []\n  for (const { cell, runs } of cells) {\n    for (const result of runs) rows.push({ cell, result })\n  }\n  return rows\n}\n\nfunction quantile(sorted: number[], q: number): number {\n  if (sorted.length === 0) return 0\n  if (sorted.length === 1) return sorted[0] as number\n  const pos = (sorted.length - 1) * q\n  const lo = Math.floor(pos)\n  const hi = Math.ceil(pos)\n  if (lo === hi) return sorted[lo] as number\n  const frac = pos - lo\n  return (sorted[lo] as number) * (1 - frac) + (sorted[hi] as number) * frac\n}\n\nexport function summariseRows<Output>(\n  rows: Row<Output>[],\n  axisName: string,\n  axisValue: string,\n): AxisSummary {\n  if (rows.length === 0) {\n    return {\n      axisName,\n      axisValue,\n      cells: 0,\n      passRate: 0,\n      meanScore: 0,\n      p50Score: 0,\n      p90Score: 0,\n      totalCostUsd: 0,\n      costUncapturedCells: 0,\n      meanDurationMs: 0,\n    }\n  }\n  let pass = 0\n  let scoreSum = 0\n  let costSum = 0\n  let durSum = 0\n  let costUncapturedCells = 0\n  const scores: number[] = []\n  for (const { result } of rows) {\n    const errored = result.error !== undefined\n    const score = errored ? 0 : result.verdict.score\n    const valid = !errored && result.verdict.valid\n    if (valid) pass++\n    scoreSum += score\n    scores.push(score)\n    costSum += result.costUsd\n    durSum += result.durationMs\n    if (result.costProvenance?.kind === 'uncaptured') costUncapturedCells++\n  }\n  scores.sort((a, b) => a - b)\n  return {\n    axisName,\n    axisValue,\n    cells: rows.length,\n    passRate: pass / rows.length,\n    meanScore: scoreSum / rows.length,\n    p50Score: quantile(scores, 0.5),\n    p90Score: quantile(scores, 0.9),\n    totalCostUsd: costSum,\n    costUncapturedCells,\n    meanDurationMs: durSum / rows.length,\n  }\n}\n\nfunction bucketBy<Output>(\n  rows: Row<Output>[],\n  axisName: string,\n  labelFor: (id: string) => string,\n): Record<string, AxisSummary> {\n  const buckets = new Map<string, Row<Output>[]>()\n  for (const row of rows) {\n    const slot = row.cell.axes[axisName]\n    if (!slot) continue\n    const id = slot.id\n    let arr = buckets.get(id)\n    if (!arr) {\n      arr = []\n      buckets.set(id, arr)\n    }\n    arr.push(row)\n  }\n  const out: Record<string, AxisSummary> = {}\n  // Sorted keys for deterministic JSON serialisation.\n  for (const id of [...buckets.keys()].sort()) {\n    out[id] = summariseRows(buckets.get(id) as Row<Output>[], axisName, labelFor(id))\n  }\n  return out\n}\n\nexport function buildByAxis<Output>(\n  cells: MatrixResult<Output>['cells'],\n  axes: MatrixAxis<unknown>[],\n  aggregateBy: string[],\n): Record<string, Record<string, AxisSummary>> {\n  const rows = flattenRuns(cells)\n  const byName = new Map(axes.map((a) => [a.name, a]))\n  const byAxis: Record<string, Record<string, AxisSummary>> = {}\n  for (const name of aggregateBy) {\n    const axis = byName.get(name)\n    const labelFor = (id: string): string => {\n      if (!axis?.label) return id\n      const found = axis.values.find((v) => v.id === id)\n      if (!found) return id\n      return axis.label(found.value, id)\n    }\n    byAxis[name] = bucketBy(rows, name, labelFor)\n  }\n  return byAxis\n}\n","/**\n * N-axis cartesian runner.\n *\n * Expansion order: cartesian over `axes` in declared order, then `reps` as the\n * inner-most dim → `ordinal = (cartIdx * reps) + rep`. The returned\n * `cells[]` is sorted by `ordinal` so concurrent execution does not reorder\n * the output.\n *\n * Scheduling is a sliding window of in-flight promises capped at\n * `maxConcurrency`. The window stops admitting new cells when the cost\n * ceiling trips or the abort signal fires; in-flight cells finish.\n */\n\nimport { buildByAxis } from './aggregation'\nimport { isAmount, readCellSpend } from './cell-spend'\nimport type {\n  CellResult,\n  CostProvenance,\n  MatrixAxis,\n  MatrixCell,\n  MatrixResult,\n  RunAgentMatrixOptions,\n} from './types'\n\ninterface BaseCell {\n  axes: Record<string, { id: string; value: unknown }>\n}\n\nfunction cartesian(axes: MatrixAxis<unknown>[]): BaseCell[] {\n  // Empty axes (`values=[]`) collapse the whole product to zero cells. An\n  // empty `axes` array yields a single empty-axes cell — degenerate but\n  // valid (caller is iterating only reps).\n  if (axes.length === 0) return [{ axes: {} }]\n  for (const a of axes) if (a.values.length === 0) return []\n  const out: BaseCell[] = []\n  const idx = new Array(axes.length).fill(0)\n  while (true) {\n    const slot: Record<string, { id: string; value: unknown }> = {}\n    for (let i = 0; i < axes.length; i++) {\n      const axis = axes[i] as MatrixAxis<unknown>\n      const v = axis.values[idx[i] as number] as { id: string; value: unknown }\n      slot[axis.name] = { id: v.id, value: v.value }\n    }\n    out.push({ axes: slot })\n    // Increment like an odometer, left-most axis is fastest.\n    let i = 0\n    while (i < axes.length) {\n      const next = (idx[i] as number) + 1\n      const axis = axes[i] as MatrixAxis<unknown>\n      if (next < axis.values.length) {\n        idx[i] = next\n        break\n      }\n      idx[i] = 0\n      i++\n    }\n    if (i === axes.length) break\n  }\n  return out\n}\n\nfunction makeMatrixId(): string {\n  // Stable id-like string: time + 8 random hex chars. Avoids node:crypto\n  // import to keep the matrix dep-free.\n  const t = Date.now().toString(36)\n  let r = ''\n  for (let i = 0; i < 8; i++) r += Math.floor(Math.random() * 16).toString(16)\n  return `mtx_${t}_${r}`\n}\n\n/** Fresh per result — a shared object would let one consumer's mutation reach\n *  every other cell in the run. */\nfunction uncaptured(): CostProvenance {\n  return { kind: 'uncaptured', usd: null }\n}\n\nfunction makeErrorResult<Output>(err: unknown): CellResult<Output> {\n  const e = err as { message?: string; name?: string }\n  const spend = readCellSpend(err)\n  return {\n    output: undefined as unknown as Output,\n    verdict: { valid: false, score: 0 },\n    costUsd: spend?.costUsd ?? 0,\n    durationMs: spend?.durationMs ?? 0,\n    costProvenance:\n      spend === undefined || spend.kind === 'uncaptured'\n        ? uncaptured()\n        : { kind: spend.kind, usd: spend.costUsd },\n    error: {\n      message: typeof e?.message === 'string' ? e.message : String(err),\n      kind: typeof e?.name === 'string' ? e.name : 'Error',\n    },\n  }\n}\n\n/** Make a result safe to sum.\n *\n *  A `costUsd` that cannot be summed fails the cell: `NaN` in `cumulativeCost`\n *  makes `>= costCeiling` false forever, so one bad cell would disable the\n *  ceiling for every cell after it.\n *\n *  A bad `durationMs` reaches only `meanDurationMs`, never the ceiling, so it\n *  cannot justify throwing away a real verdict and a real cost. It is reported\n *  as 0 and warned about, and the rest of the result stands. A wall clock that\n *  steps back mid-cell makes `Date.now() - startedAt` negative, so this is a\n *  reachable state, not only a caller bug. */\nfunction billableResult<Output>(\n  result: CellResult<Output>,\n  onBadDuration: (reported: unknown) => void,\n): CellResult<Output> {\n  if (!isAmount(result.costUsd)) {\n    return makeErrorResult<Output>(\n      new RangeError(\n        `runCell reported costUsd=${String(result.costUsd)}; a cell cost must be a finite number >= 0 so the cost ceiling stays enforceable`,\n      ),\n    )\n  }\n  if (isAmount(result.durationMs)) return result\n  onBadDuration(result.durationMs)\n  return { ...result, durationMs: 0 }\n}\n\nexport async function runAgentMatrix<Output>(\n  opts: RunAgentMatrixOptions<Output>,\n): Promise<MatrixResult<Output>> {\n  const startedAt = Date.now()\n  const reps = Math.max(1, opts.reps ?? 1)\n  const maxConcurrency = Math.max(1, opts.maxConcurrency ?? 4)\n  const costCeiling = opts.costCeiling ?? Number.POSITIVE_INFINITY\n  const aggregateBy = opts.aggregateBy ?? opts.axes.map((a) => a.name)\n  if (opts.maxCellCostUsd !== undefined && !isAmount(opts.maxCellCostUsd)) {\n    throw new RangeError(\n      `runAgentMatrix: maxCellCostUsd must be a finite number >= 0, received ${String(opts.maxCellCostUsd)}`,\n    )\n  }\n\n  const base = cartesian(opts.axes)\n  const filtered = opts.filter\n    ? base.filter((c) => (opts.filter as (b: BaseCell) => boolean)(c))\n    : base\n  const filteredOut = base.length - filtered.length\n\n  const planned: MatrixCell[] = []\n  for (let i = 0; i < filtered.length; i++) {\n    for (let r = 0; r < reps; r++) {\n      planned.push({\n        axes: (filtered[i] as BaseCell).axes,\n        rep: r,\n        ordinal: i * reps + r,\n      })\n    }\n  }\n\n  const cellRecords: Array<{ cell: MatrixCell; runs: CellResult<Output>[] }> = []\n  // What the ceiling reads. It runs ahead of the reported total whenever a\n  // cell's cost is a subtotal and `maxCellCostUsd` bounds what it could have\n  // been — a budget must assume the worst about spend it cannot see.\n  let cumulativeCost = 0\n  let costCeilingReached = false\n  let runsExecuted = 0\n  let cellsUnscheduled = 0\n  let costUncapturedCells = 0\n  let badDurationCells = 0\n\n  const aborted = (): boolean => opts.signal?.aborted === true\n\n  // Per-run abort controller forwards the external signal so cell executors\n  // see cancellation. We don't expose it on `MatrixCell` — the signature on\n  // `runCell` per the public API is `(cell) => Promise<...>`. Executors that\n  // need cancellation use the external signal directly via closure.\n\n  let inFlight = 0\n  let cursor = 0\n  let resolveAll: (() => void) | undefined\n  const done = new Promise<void>((res) => {\n    resolveAll = res\n  })\n\n  const pump = (): void => {\n    while (inFlight < maxConcurrency && cursor < planned.length) {\n      if (aborted() || costCeilingReached) {\n        // Drain remaining as unscheduled.\n        const left = planned.length - cursor\n        cellsUnscheduled += left\n        cursor = planned.length\n        break\n      }\n      const cell = planned[cursor++] as MatrixCell\n      inFlight++\n      // Lazily allocate the record so cells appear in `cells[]` in any\n      // arrival order; we sort by ordinal at the end.\n      const record = { cell, runs: [] as CellResult<Output>[] }\n      cellRecords.push(record)\n      const promise: Promise<CellResult<Output>> = (async () => {\n        try {\n          return await opts.runCell(cell)\n        } catch (err) {\n          return makeErrorResult<Output>(err)\n        }\n      })()\n      promise.then((settled) => {\n        const result = billableResult(settled, (reported) => {\n          badDurationCells++\n          if (badDurationCells === 1) {\n            // eslint-disable-next-line no-console\n            console.warn(\n              `[matrix] a cell reported durationMs=${String(reported)}; recorded as 0 — meanDurationMs under-reports this run`,\n            )\n          }\n        })\n        record.runs.push(result)\n        runsExecuted++\n        const uncapturedCost = result.costProvenance?.kind === 'uncaptured'\n        cumulativeCost +=\n          uncapturedCost && opts.maxCellCostUsd !== undefined\n            ? Math.max(result.costUsd, opts.maxCellCostUsd)\n            : result.costUsd\n        if (uncapturedCost) {\n          costUncapturedCells++\n          if (costUncapturedCells === 1) {\n            // eslint-disable-next-line no-console\n            console.warn(\n              \"[matrix] a cell's cost is a subtotal, not a total — totalCostUsd and the cost ceiling under-count this run\",\n            )\n          }\n        }\n        if (cumulativeCost >= costCeiling && !costCeilingReached) {\n          costCeilingReached = true\n          // eslint-disable-next-line no-console\n          console.warn('[matrix] cost ceiling reached')\n        }\n        try {\n          opts.onCellComplete?.(cell, result)\n        } catch {\n          // onCellComplete is observational — swallow throws so a noisy\n          // callback can't tank the run.\n        }\n        inFlight--\n        if (cursor < planned.length) {\n          pump()\n        } else if (inFlight === 0) {\n          resolveAll?.()\n        }\n      })\n    }\n    if (cursor >= planned.length && inFlight === 0) resolveAll?.()\n  }\n\n  const onAbort = (): void => {\n    // External abort: stop scheduling. In-flight cells finish; their\n    // executors observe `opts.signal.aborted` directly via closure.\n    if (cursor < planned.length) {\n      cellsUnscheduled += planned.length - cursor\n      cursor = planned.length\n    }\n    if (inFlight === 0) resolveAll?.()\n  }\n  if (opts.signal) {\n    if (opts.signal.aborted) {\n      cellsUnscheduled = planned.length\n      cursor = planned.length\n      resolveAll?.()\n    } else {\n      opts.signal.addEventListener('abort', onAbort, { once: true })\n    }\n  }\n\n  if (planned.length === 0) {\n    resolveAll?.()\n  } else {\n    pump()\n  }\n\n  await done\n  if (opts.signal) opts.signal.removeEventListener('abort', onAbort)\n\n  cellRecords.sort((a, b) => a.cell.ordinal - b.cell.ordinal)\n\n  let pass = 0\n  let scoreSum = 0\n  let totalCost = 0\n  let runCount = 0\n  for (const { runs } of cellRecords) {\n    for (const r of runs) {\n      runCount++\n      const errored = r.error !== undefined\n      if (!errored && r.verdict.valid) pass++\n      scoreSum += errored ? 0 : r.verdict.score\n      totalCost += r.costUsd\n    }\n  }\n\n  const byAxis = buildByAxis(cellRecords, opts.axes, aggregateBy)\n\n  return {\n    cells: cellRecords,\n    byAxis,\n    summary: {\n      totalCells: planned.length,\n      runsExecuted,\n      cellsSkipped: cellsUnscheduled + filteredOut * reps,\n      overallPassRate: runCount === 0 ? 0 : pass / runCount,\n      overallMeanScore: runCount === 0 ? 0 : scoreSum / runCount,\n      totalCostUsd: totalCost,\n      costUncapturedCells,\n      ceilingChargedUsd: cumulativeCost,\n      durationMs: Date.now() - startedAt,\n    },\n    matrixId: makeMatrixId(),\n  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package/dist/paired-arms-DpS_h8ON.js.map

@@ -1 +0,0 @@
-{"version":3,"file":"paired-arms-DpS_h8ON.js","names":[],"sources":["../src/math/normal.ts","../src/statistics/rank-tests.ts","../src/paired-arms.ts"],"sourcesContent":["/**\n * Standard normal cumulative distribution using Abramowitz and Stegun 7.1.26.\n *\n * The approximation is evaluated as erf(x / sqrt(2)). Computing the negative\n * tail from the complementary term avoids cancellation when x is far below 0.\n * The maximum absolute CDF error is approximately 7.5e-8.\n */\nexport function normalCdf(x: number): number {\n  if (x === 0) return 0.5\n\n  const a1 = 0.254829592\n  const a2 = -0.284496736\n  const a3 = 1.421413741\n  const a4 = -1.453152027\n  const a5 = 1.061405429\n  const p = 0.3275911\n\n  const scaled = Math.abs(x) / Math.SQRT2\n  const t = 1 / (1 + p * scaled)\n  const complement = ((((a5 * t + a4) * t + a3) * t + a2) * t + a1) * t * Math.exp(-scaled * scaled)\n\n  return x < 0 ? complement / 2 : 1 - complement / 2\n}\n","import { ValidationError } from '../errors'\nimport { normalCdf } from '../math/normal'\nimport { lnGamma } from '../math/special-functions'\nimport {\n  assertFiniteSample,\n  binomialSignTwoSided,\n  makeRng,\n  symmetricTwoSampleSeed,\n} from './internal'\n\n// ── Rank tests: exact by default ─────────────────────────────────────\n//\n// At 3–10 repetitions per arm the binding constraint on a rank test is\n// combinatorial, not numerical. Three versus three admits only 20 splits, so\n// the attainable two-sided p-grid starts at 0.1000 and α = 0.05 is out of\n// reach at that design; a normal approximation reports 0.0495, a p-value that\n// describes no attainable outcome. No better approximation fixes this — adding\n// the tie correction moves `[0,0,0]` versus `[1,1,1]` from 0.0495 to 0.0469,\n// further from its exact 0.1000, not closer.\n//\n// So both null distributions are enumerated exactly inside bounded state and\n// work budgets, by convolution over the observed midranks (identical to\n// enumerating every split / sign pattern, and cheaper), which conditions on the\n// realised tie pattern for free. Above those budgets the default is a seeded\n// Monte Carlo permutation. The asymptotic path is never chosen automatically,\n// and asking for it inside the exact-feasible range throws.\n//\n// Every result carries `method` and `pFloor` so a downstream gate can SEE the\n// discreteness rather than infer it: a gate handed data whose `pFloor` exceeds\n// its alpha is underpowered by construction, which is a true statement about\n// the experiment, not a false one about the effect.\n\n/** How a rank test's p-value was actually computed. */\nexport type RankTestMethod = 'exact' | 'permutation' | 'asymptotic'\n\n/**\n * What the caller asks for. `'auto'` selects `'exact'` inside the enumeration\n * threshold and `'permutation'` above it, and never selects `'asymptotic'`.\n */\nexport type RankTestMethodRequest = 'auto' | 'exact' | 'asymptotic'\n\nexport interface RankTestOptions {\n  /** Default `'auto'`. `'asymptotic'` inside the exact-feasible range throws. */\n  method?: RankTestMethodRequest\n  /** Resamples on the Monte Carlo permutation path. Default 100000. */\n  permutations?: number\n  /** Seed for the permutation path. Omitted ⇒ derived from the data itself, so\n   *  the result is reproducible either way. */\n  seed?: number\n}\n\n/** Maximum dynamic-programming cells used by an exact two-sample rank test. */\nexport const MANN_WHITNEY_EXACT_MAX_STATES = 8_192\n/** Maximum inner-loop transitions used by an exact two-sample rank test. */\nexport const MANN_WHITNEY_EXACT_MAX_WORK = 250_000\n/** Non-zero differences up to which the signed-rank null is enumerated exactly. */\nexport const WILCOXON_EXACT_MAX_N = 20\n/** Resamples used when a rank test falls back to Monte Carlo permutation. */\nexport const DEFAULT_PERMUTATIONS = 100_000\n\nexport interface MannWhitneyResult {\n  /** `min(U_a, U_b)` — the conventional reported statistic. */\n  u: number\n  /** U for sample `a`. Carries the direction of the effect, which `u` discards. */\n  uA: number\n  /** Two-sided p-value. */\n  p: number\n  /** How `p` was computed. */\n  method: RankTestMethod\n  /** Smallest two-sided p this design can produce. `p` can never be below it. */\n  pFloor: number\n}\n\n/**\n * Mann-Whitney U — two independent samples, no distributional assumption.\n *\n * Exact conditional (permutation) p by default when the dynamic program fits\n * {@link MANN_WHITNEY_EXACT_MAX_STATES} cells and\n * {@link MANN_WHITNEY_EXACT_MAX_WORK} transitions, seeded Monte Carlo\n * permutation above those limits. This keeps imbalanced designs such as 1+24\n * exact without admitting expensive balanced designs merely because they have\n * the same total size. Throws on non-finite input and on `method:\n * 'asymptotic'` where an exact answer is available. Empty input yields `p = 1,\n * pFloor = 1` — no design, no attainable evidence.\n */\nexport function mannWhitneyU(\n  a: number[],\n  b: number[],\n  opts: RankTestOptions = {},\n): MannWhitneyResult {\n  assertFiniteSample('mannWhitneyU', 'a', a)\n  assertFiniteSample('mannWhitneyU', 'b', b)\n\n  const n1 = a.length\n  const n2 = b.length\n  if (n1 === 0 || n2 === 0) return { u: 0, uA: 0, p: 1, method: 'exact', pFloor: 1 }\n\n  const total = n1 + n2\n  const combined = [\n    ...a.map((v) => ({ v, fromA: true })),\n    ...b.map((v) => ({ v, fromA: false })),\n  ].sort((x, y) => x.v - y.v)\n\n  const { midranks, tieTerm } = midranksWithTieTerm(combined.map((entry) => entry.v))\n  let rankSumA = 0\n  for (let k = 0; k < total; k++) {\n    if (combined[k]!.fromA) rankSumA += midranks[k]!\n  }\n\n  const uA = rankSumA - (n1 * (n1 + 1)) / 2\n  const u = Math.min(uA, n1 * n2 - uA)\n  // Midranks are integers or halves, so doubling makes the null convolution\n  // integral. U is centred on n₁n₂/2, hence a doubled centre of n₁n₂.\n  const doubled = midranks.map((rank) => Math.round(rank * 2))\n  const doubledDeviation = Math.abs(2 * uA - n1 * n2)\n  const selectedN = Math.min(n1, n2)\n  const otherN = total - selectedN\n  const exactCost = exactTwoSampleCost(doubled, selectedN)\n\n  const designFloor = exactTwoSampleFloor(doubled, selectedN)\n  const method = selectRankTestMethod(\n    'mannWhitneyU',\n    opts.method ?? 'auto',\n    `n1=${n1}, n2=${n2}`,\n    exactCost.states <= MANN_WHITNEY_EXACT_MAX_STATES &&\n      exactCost.work <= MANN_WHITNEY_EXACT_MAX_WORK,\n    designFloor,\n    `${MANN_WHITNEY_EXACT_MAX_STATES.toLocaleString('en-US')} states and ` +\n      `${MANN_WHITNEY_EXACT_MAX_WORK.toLocaleString('en-US')} transitions`,\n  )\n\n  if (method === 'exact') {\n    const { p, pFloor } = exactTwoSampleP(doubled, selectedN, otherN, doubledDeviation)\n    return { u, uA, p, method, pFloor }\n  }\n\n  if (method === 'asymptotic') {\n    return {\n      u,\n      uA,\n      p: asymptoticTwoSidedP(doubledDeviation / 2, twoSampleSigma(n1, n2, total, tieTerm)),\n      method,\n      pFloor: designFloor,\n    }\n  }\n\n  const permutations = resolvePermutations('mannWhitneyU', opts.permutations)\n  const rng = opts.seed === undefined ? makeRng(symmetricTwoSampleSeed(a, b)) : makeRng(opts.seed)\n  let atLeastAsExtreme = 0\n  const pool = [...doubled]\n  for (let iteration = 0; iteration < permutations; iteration++) {\n    let doubledRankSum = 0\n    for (let k = 0; k < selectedN; k++) {\n      const pick = k + Math.floor(rng() * (total - k))\n      const swapped = pool[pick]!\n      pool[pick] = pool[k]!\n      pool[k] = swapped\n      doubledRankSum += swapped\n    }\n    if (\n      Math.abs(doubledRankSum - selectedN * (selectedN + 1) - selectedN * otherN) >=\n      doubledDeviation\n    ) {\n      atLeastAsExtreme++\n    }\n  }\n  const pFloor = Math.max(1 / (permutations + 1), designFloor)\n  return {\n    u,\n    uA,\n    p: Math.max((1 + atLeastAsExtreme) / (permutations + 1), pFloor),\n    method,\n    pFloor,\n  }\n}\n\nexport interface WilcoxonSignedRankResult {\n  /** W⁺, the rank sum of the positive differences. (scipy reports\n   *  `min(W⁺, W⁻)`; compare statistics only after converting.) */\n  w: number\n  /** Two-sided p-value. */\n  p: number\n  /** How `p` was computed. */\n  method: RankTestMethod\n  /** Smallest two-sided p this design can produce. */\n  pFloor: number\n  /** Non-zero differences — zero differences are dropped and carry no rank. */\n  nNonZero: number\n}\n\n/**\n * Wilcoxon signed-rank — paired, no distributional assumption on the deltas.\n *\n * Exact conditional (sign-flip) p by default at `n ≤\n * {@link WILCOXON_EXACT_MAX_N}` non-zero differences, seeded Monte Carlo\n * permutation above it. Throws on non-finite input and on `method:\n * 'asymptotic'` where an exact answer is available.\n *\n * `n` is the count of NON-ZERO differences: exact ties are dropped before\n * ranking, so a run of tied pairs shrinks the design and raises `pFloor`.\n * All-tied input yields `p = 1, pFloor = 1` — no attainable evidence, which\n * `pFloor` states rather than leaving `p = 1` to be read as a measured null.\n */\nexport function wilcoxonSignedRank(\n  before: number[],\n  after: number[],\n  opts: RankTestOptions = {},\n): WilcoxonSignedRankResult {\n  if (before.length !== after.length) {\n    throw new ValidationError(\n      `wilcoxonSignedRank: unequal sample sizes (${before.length} vs ${after.length})`,\n    )\n  }\n  assertFiniteSample('wilcoxonSignedRank', 'before', before)\n  assertFiniteSample('wilcoxonSignedRank', 'after', after)\n\n  const diffs = before.map((b, i) => after[i]! - b).filter((d) => d !== 0)\n  const n = diffs.length\n  if (n === 0) return { w: 0, p: 1, method: 'exact', pFloor: 1, nNonZero: 0 }\n\n  // When every non-zero difference has the same magnitude, the signed-rank\n  // null reduces exactly to a binomial sign distribution. This is the common\n  // pass/fail shape ({-1, 0, +1}); recognizing it avoids a 100k-draw\n  // permutation for every repeated gate evaluation while preserving the exact\n  // p-value and attainable floor. Explicit method requests still retain their\n  // documented behavior.\n  const abs = Math.abs(diffs[0]!)\n  const allEqualAbs = diffs.every((d) => Math.abs(d) === abs)\n  if ((opts.method === undefined || opts.method === 'auto') && allEqualAbs) {\n    const positive = diffs.filter((d) => d > 0).length\n    const negative = n - positive\n    return {\n      w: (positive * (n + 1)) / 2,\n      p: binomialSignTwoSided(positive, negative),\n      method: 'exact',\n      pFloor: Math.min(1, 2 ** (1 - n)),\n      nNonZero: n,\n    }\n  }\n\n  const order = diffs.map((d, i) => ({ abs: Math.abs(d), i })).sort((x, y) => x.abs - y.abs)\n  const { midranks, tieTerm } = midranksWithTieTerm(order.map((entry) => entry.abs))\n  const ranks: number[] = new Array(n)\n  for (let k = 0; k < n; k++) ranks[order[k]!.i] = midranks[k]!\n\n  let wPlus = 0\n  for (let k = 0; k < n; k++) if (diffs[k]! > 0) wPlus += ranks[k]!\n\n  // Midranks are integers or halves; doubling makes the convolution integral.\n  // Σ midranks = n(n+1)/2 whatever the tie pattern, so E[W⁺] = n(n+1)/4 and\n  // the doubled centre is n(n+1)/2.\n  const doubled = midranks.map((rank) => Math.round(rank * 2))\n  const doubledDeviation = Math.abs(2 * wPlus - (n * (n + 1)) / 2)\n\n  const designFloor = Math.min(1, 2 ** (1 - n))\n  const method = selectRankTestMethod(\n    'wilcoxonSignedRank',\n    opts.method ?? 'auto',\n    `n=${n} non-zero differences`,\n    n <= WILCOXON_EXACT_MAX_N,\n    designFloor,\n    `${WILCOXON_EXACT_MAX_N} non-zero differences`,\n  )\n\n  if (method === 'exact') {\n    const { p, pFloor } = exactSignedRankP(doubled, doubledDeviation)\n    return { w: wPlus, p, method, pFloor, nNonZero: n }\n  }\n\n  if (method === 'asymptotic') {\n    const variance = (n * (n + 1) * (2 * n + 1)) / 24 - tieTerm / 48\n    return {\n      w: wPlus,\n      p: asymptoticTwoSidedP(doubledDeviation / 2, Math.sqrt(variance)),\n      method,\n      pFloor: designFloor,\n      nNonZero: n,\n    }\n  }\n\n  const permutations = resolvePermutations('wilcoxonSignedRank', opts.permutations)\n  const rng = makeRng(opts.seed, before, after)\n  const doubledCentre = (n * (n + 1)) / 2\n  let atLeastAsExtreme = 0\n  for (let iteration = 0; iteration < permutations; iteration++) {\n    let doubledWPlus = 0\n    for (let k = 0; k < n; k++) if (rng() < 0.5) doubledWPlus += doubled[k]!\n    if (Math.abs(doubledWPlus - doubledCentre) >= doubledDeviation) atLeastAsExtreme++\n  }\n  return {\n    w: wPlus,\n    p: (1 + atLeastAsExtreme) / (permutations + 1),\n    method,\n    pFloor: Math.max(1 / (permutations + 1), designFloor),\n    nNonZero: n,\n  }\n}\n\n/**\n * Average ranks over an ASCENDING-sorted array, plus `Σ(t³ − t)` over tie\n * groups of size `t` — the correction term both asymptotic rank-test variances\n * need.\n */\nfunction midranksWithTieTerm(sorted: readonly number[]): { midranks: number[]; tieTerm: number } {\n  const midranks = new Array<number>(sorted.length)\n  let tieTerm = 0\n  let i = 0\n  while (i < sorted.length) {\n    let j = i\n    while (j < sorted.length && sorted[j] === sorted[i]) j++\n    const average = (i + 1 + j) / 2\n    for (let k = i; k < j; k++) midranks[k] = average\n    const groupSize = j - i\n    if (groupSize > 1) tieTerm += groupSize ** 3 - groupSize\n    i = j\n  }\n  return { midranks, tieTerm }\n}\n\nfunction selectRankTestMethod(\n  fn: string,\n  request: RankTestMethodRequest,\n  design: string,\n  exactFeasible: boolean,\n  designFloor: number,\n  threshold: string,\n): RankTestMethod {\n  if (request === 'auto') return exactFeasible ? 'exact' : 'permutation'\n  if (request === 'exact') {\n    if (exactFeasible) return 'exact'\n    throw new ValidationError(\n      `${fn}: method 'exact' is out of range at ${design} — enumeration is bounded by ` +\n        `${threshold}. Use 'auto' for the seeded Monte Carlo permutation, which converges ` +\n        'to the same answer.',\n    )\n  }\n  if (exactFeasible) {\n    throw new ValidationError(\n      `${fn}: method 'asymptotic' is refused at ${design} — the exact p-grid at this design ` +\n        `starts at ${formatProbability(designFloor)}, so an asymptotic p below it describes no ` +\n        `attainable outcome. Use method 'exact' (the default) or add repetitions past ` +\n        `${threshold}.`,\n    )\n  }\n  return 'asymptotic'\n}\n\nfunction resolvePermutations(fn: string, permutations: number | undefined): number {\n  if (permutations === undefined) return DEFAULT_PERMUTATIONS\n  if (!Number.isInteger(permutations) || permutations < 1) {\n    throw new ValidationError(`${fn}: permutations must be a positive integer, got ${permutations}`)\n  }\n  return permutations\n}\n\n/** Two-sided normal-approximation tail with the continuity correction. */\nfunction asymptoticTwoSidedP(deviation: number, sigma: number): number {\n  if (!(sigma > 0)) return 1\n  return Math.min(1, 2 * (1 - normalCdf(Math.max(0, deviation - 0.5) / sigma)))\n}\n\n/** SD of U under the permutation null, corrected for the realised ties. The\n *  tie term reduces (N+1) and reaches it exactly when every value is tied, so\n *  the variance floors at 0 rather than going negative. */\nfunction twoSampleSigma(n1: number, n2: number, total: number, tieTerm: number): number {\n  if (total < 2) return 0\n  const variance = ((n1 * n2) / 12) * (total + 1 - tieTerm / (total * (total - 1)))\n  return Math.sqrt(Math.max(0, variance))\n}\n\nfunction logChoose(n: number, k: number): number {\n  return lnGamma(n + 1) - lnGamma(k + 1) - lnGamma(n - k + 1)\n}\n\nfunction formatProbability(value: number): string {\n  return value >= 1e-4 || value === 0 ? value.toFixed(4) : value.toExponential(3)\n}\n\n/**\n * Exact DP allocation and loop count for this observed rank vector.\n *\n * The smaller arm is sufficient because selecting its complement produces the\n * same two-sided U deviation while using fewer rows in the state table.\n */\nfunction exactTwoSampleCost(\n  doubledRanks: readonly number[],\n  selectedN: number,\n): { states: number; work: number } {\n  const maxSum = doubledRanks.reduce((sum, rank) => sum + rank, 0)\n  let work = 0\n  for (let placed = 0; placed < doubledRanks.length; placed++) {\n    work += Math.min(selectedN, placed + 1) * (maxSum - doubledRanks[placed]! + 1)\n  }\n  return {\n    states: (selectedN + 1) * (maxSum + 1),\n    work,\n  }\n}\n\n/**\n * Smallest attainable two-sided p under the observed ties.\n *\n * Only subsets with the minimum or maximum rank sum can attain the largest\n * deviation. Their multiplicity is the number of ways to choose within the\n * tie group at each boundary, so this calculation is exact without allocating\n * the full null distribution.\n */\nfunction exactTwoSampleFloor(doubledRanks: readonly number[], selectedN: number): number {\n  const total = doubledRanks.length\n  const otherN = total - selectedN\n  const minimumSum = doubledRanks.slice(0, selectedN).reduce((sum, rank) => sum + rank, 0)\n  const maximumSum = doubledRanks.slice(total - selectedN).reduce((sum, rank) => sum + rank, 0)\n  if (minimumSum === maximumSum) return 1\n\n  const centre = selectedN * (selectedN + 1) + selectedN * otherN\n  const minimumDeviation = Math.abs(minimumSum - centre)\n  const maximumDeviation = Math.abs(maximumSum - centre)\n  const totalLogWays = logChoose(total, selectedN)\n  const minimumMass = Math.exp(\n    logExtremeSubsetWays(doubledRanks, selectedN, 'minimum') - totalLogWays,\n  )\n  const maximumMass = Math.exp(\n    logExtremeSubsetWays(doubledRanks, selectedN, 'maximum') - totalLogWays,\n  )\n\n  if (minimumDeviation > maximumDeviation) return minimumMass\n  if (maximumDeviation > minimumDeviation) return maximumMass\n  return Math.min(1, minimumMass + maximumMass)\n}\n\nfunction logExtremeSubsetWays(\n  sortedRanks: readonly number[],\n  selectedN: number,\n  side: 'minimum' | 'maximum',\n): number {\n  const boundaryIndex = side === 'minimum' ? selectedN - 1 : sortedRanks.length - selectedN\n  const boundary = sortedRanks[boundaryIndex]!\n  let first = boundaryIndex\n  let afterLast = boundaryIndex + 1\n  while (first > 0 && sortedRanks[first - 1] === boundary) first--\n  while (afterLast < sortedRanks.length && sortedRanks[afterLast] === boundary) afterLast++\n\n  const tieSize = afterLast - first\n  const fixed = side === 'minimum' ? first : sortedRanks.length - afterLast\n  return logChoose(tieSize, selectedN - fixed)\n}\n\n/**\n * Exact conditional two-sided p for the two-sample rank test.\n *\n * Convolves the observed doubled midranks into the null distribution of group\n * a's rank sum over every `C(n₁+n₂, n₁)` split — identical to enumerating the\n * splits, but `O(N·n₁·ΣR)` instead of `O(C(N,n₁)·n₁n₂)`. Conditioning on the\n * realised multiset makes the tie handling exact rather than a correction.\n *\n * The null is symmetric about `n₁n₂/2` (negating every value maps `U → n₁n₂ −\n * U` and permutes the split set onto itself), so the two-sided p is the mass\n * at least as far from the centre as the observation.\n */\nfunction exactTwoSampleP(\n  doubledRanks: readonly number[],\n  n1: number,\n  n2: number,\n  doubledDeviation: number,\n): { p: number; pFloor: number } {\n  const maxSum = doubledRanks.reduce((sum, rank) => sum + rank, 0)\n  const width = maxSum + 1\n  // ways[k][s] = number of size-k subsets whose doubled rank sum is s.\n  const ways: Float64Array[] = Array.from({ length: n1 + 1 }, () => new Float64Array(width))\n  ways[0]![0] = 1\n  let placed = 0\n  for (const rank of doubledRanks) {\n    for (let k = Math.min(n1, placed + 1); k >= 1; k--) {\n      const from = ways[k - 1]!\n      const into = ways[k]!\n      for (let sum = maxSum - rank; sum >= 0; sum--) {\n        const count = from[sum]!\n        if (count !== 0) into[sum + rank]! += count\n      }\n    }\n    placed++\n  }\n\n  // U = rankSum − n₁(n₁+1)/2, so doubled U = s − n₁(n₁+1), and the doubled\n  // centre 2·(n₁n₂/2) is n₁n₂.\n  const shift = n1 * (n1 + 1) + n1 * n2\n  const chosen = ways[n1]!\n  let totalWays = 0\n  let extremeWays = 0\n  let tailWays = 0\n  let maxDeviation = -1\n  for (let sum = 0; sum < width; sum++) {\n    const count = chosen[sum]!\n    if (count === 0) continue\n    totalWays += count\n    const deviation = Math.abs(sum - shift)\n    if (deviation >= doubledDeviation) tailWays += count\n    if (deviation > maxDeviation) {\n      maxDeviation = deviation\n      extremeWays = count\n    } else if (deviation === maxDeviation) {\n      extremeWays += count\n    }\n  }\n  return { p: tailWays / totalWays, pFloor: extremeWays / totalWays }\n}\n\n/**\n * Exact conditional two-sided p for the paired signed-rank test.\n *\n * Convolves the observed doubled absolute midranks over all `2ⁿ` sign\n * assignments in `O(n·ΣR)`. Probabilities rather than counts keep `2ⁿ` off the\n * arithmetic. The null is symmetric about `n(n+1)/4`.\n */\nfunction exactSignedRankP(\n  doubledRanks: readonly number[],\n  doubledDeviation: number,\n): { p: number; pFloor: number } {\n  const maxSum = doubledRanks.reduce((sum, rank) => sum + rank, 0)\n  const width = maxSum + 1\n  let mass = new Float64Array(width)\n  mass[0] = 1\n  for (const rank of doubledRanks) {\n    const next = new Float64Array(width)\n    for (let sum = 0; sum < width; sum++) {\n      const probability = mass[sum]!\n      if (probability === 0) continue\n      next[sum]! += probability * 0.5\n      next[sum + rank]! += probability * 0.5\n    }\n    mass = next\n  }\n\n  const centre = maxSum / 2\n  let tail = 0\n  let extreme = 0\n  let maxDeviation = -1\n  for (let sum = 0; sum < width; sum++) {\n    const probability = mass[sum]!\n    if (probability === 0) continue\n    const deviation = Math.abs(sum - centre)\n    if (deviation >= doubledDeviation) tail += probability\n    if (deviation > maxDeviation) {\n      maxDeviation = deviation\n      extreme = probability\n    } else if (deviation === maxDeviation) {\n      extreme += probability\n    }\n  }\n  return { p: Math.min(1, tail), pFloor: Math.min(1, extreme) }\n}\n","/**\n * Matched-pair arm comparison — \"did the treatment arm beat the baseline arm\n * on the SAME work items?\"\n *\n * An arm A/B over run records is only trustworthy when it is PAIRED: the same\n * task/scenario/seed evaluated under both arms, compared item-by-item, so\n * inter-item difficulty variance cancels instead of masquerading as an arm\n * effect. This module owns the two error-prone steps every consumer otherwise\n * hand-rolls:\n *\n *   1. Pairing — matching rows across arms by `pairKey` (and by `repKey`\n *      within multi-rep items), with leftovers REPORTED rather than silently\n *      dropped (a silently unbalanced pairing biases every paired statistic\n *      downstream). Pairing never keys on outcome content: matching reps by\n *      their outcomes deflates discordant-pair counts and makes McNemar\n *      anti-conservative, so reps pair only by (`pairKey`, `repKey`) identity.\n *   2. Composition — feeding the matched pairs to the correct paired\n *      estimators that already live in `statistics`: `mcnemar` +\n *      `pairedRiskDifference` for pass/fail, `pairedBootstrap` +\n *      `wilcoxonSignedRank` for continuous metrics. No statistic is\n *      re-implemented here.\n *\n * The row shape is deliberately structural — callers project a `RunRecord`\n * (or any record) into `{ pairKey, arm, pass?, metrics? }`. Arm names are\n * caller-supplied parameters; the module ships no domain literal.\n */\n\nimport { ValidationError } from './errors'\nimport type { RunRecord } from './run-record'\nimport type { McNemarResult, PairedBootstrapOptions, PairedBootstrapResult } from './statistics'\nimport {\n  mcnemar,\n  pairedBootstrap,\n  pairedRiskDifference,\n  type RiskDifferenceResult,\n  wilcoxonSignedRank,\n} from './statistics'\n\n/** One arm observation of one work item. Structural on purpose: callers\n *  project their own record type (e.g. a `RunRecord`) into this shape. */\nexport interface PairedArmRow {\n  /** Matching key — rows sharing a `pairKey` across both arms form pairs\n   *  (typically the task/scenario/seed identity). */\n  pairKey: string\n  /** Rep identity within a `pairKey` (e.g. a seed or rep number). Required on\n   *  every row of a `pairKey` that has more than one rep in either arm; reps\n   *  then pair only on exact (`pairKey`, `repKey`) match, never on outcome\n   *  content. Optional when each arm has at most one rep of the item. */\n  repKey?: string\n  /** Arm label this row was produced under. */\n  arm: string\n  /** Binary outcome; omit when the comparison has no pass/fail notion. */\n  pass?: boolean\n  /** Named numeric measurements (score, cost, latency, …). */\n  metrics?: Record<string, number>\n}\n\nexport interface PairArmsOptions {\n  /** Arm treated as the control side of every pair. */\n  baselineArm: string\n  /** Arm treated as the treatment side of every pair. */\n  treatmentArm: string\n}\n\n/** One matched (baseline, treatment) observation of the same work item. */\nexport interface MatchedPair {\n  pairKey: string\n  /** 0-based position of this pair within its `pairKey`, ordered by sorted\n   *  `repKey` (always 0 for a single-rep item). The rep identity itself is on\n   *  the rows (`baseline.repKey` / `treatment.repKey`). */\n  repIndex: number\n  baseline: PairedArmRow\n  treatment: PairedArmRow\n}\n\nexport interface PairArmsResult {\n  /** Matched pairs, ordered by (`pairKey`, `repIndex`). */\n  pairs: MatchedPair[]\n  /** Baseline rows left without a treatment counterpart — reported, never\n   *  silently dropped. */\n  unpairedBaseline: PairedArmRow[]\n  /** Treatment rows left without a baseline counterpart. */\n  unpairedTreatment: PairedArmRow[]\n}\n\n/**\n * Match rows across two arms into (baseline, treatment) pairs by `pairKey`.\n *\n * A `pairKey` with at most one row per arm pairs directly, no `repKey`\n * needed. A `pairKey` with multiple reps in either arm requires `repKey` on\n * every one of its rows, and reps pair only on exact (`pairKey`, `repKey`)\n * match — pairing is keyed purely on row identity, never on outcome content\n * (outcome-keyed matching deflates discordant counts and biases McNemar), and\n * is therefore independent of input order. Reps whose `repKey` has no\n * counterpart in the other arm, and items present in only one arm, land in\n * the unpaired lists — reported, never truncated.\n *\n * Fail-loud: throws when either named arm has zero rows (an unknown arm\n * name would otherwise read as \"everything unpaired\"), when the two arm\n * names are equal, when a multi-rep `pairKey` has a row without `repKey`, or\n * when a (`pairKey`, arm) group repeats a `repKey` (the match would be\n * ambiguous).\n */\nexport function pairArms(rows: readonly PairedArmRow[], opts: PairArmsOptions): PairArmsResult {\n  const { baselineArm, treatmentArm } = opts\n  if (baselineArm === treatmentArm) {\n    throw new ValidationError(\n      `pairArms: baselineArm and treatmentArm are both '${baselineArm}' — an arm cannot be compared to itself`,\n    )\n  }\n\n  // arm → pairKey → rows\n  const byArm = new Map<string, Map<string, PairedArmRow[]>>()\n  const armsSeen = new Set<string>()\n  for (const row of rows) {\n    armsSeen.add(row.arm)\n    if (row.arm !== baselineArm && row.arm !== treatmentArm) continue\n    const byKey = byArm.get(row.arm) ?? new Map<string, PairedArmRow[]>()\n    const group = byKey.get(row.pairKey) ?? []\n    group.push(row)\n    byKey.set(row.pairKey, group)\n    byArm.set(row.arm, byKey)\n  }\n\n  for (const arm of [baselineArm, treatmentArm]) {\n    if (!byArm.has(arm)) {\n      const seen = [...armsSeen].sort().join(', ') || '<none>'\n      throw new ValidationError(`pairArms: no rows for arm '${arm}' (arms present: ${seen})`)\n    }\n  }\n\n  const baselineByKey = byArm.get(baselineArm)!\n  const treatmentByKey = byArm.get(treatmentArm)!\n\n  const allKeys = [...new Set([...baselineByKey.keys(), ...treatmentByKey.keys()])].sort()\n  const pairs: MatchedPair[] = []\n  const unpairedBaseline: PairedArmRow[] = []\n  const unpairedTreatment: PairedArmRow[] = []\n  for (const pairKey of allKeys) {\n    const b = baselineByKey.get(pairKey) ?? []\n    const t = treatmentByKey.get(pairKey) ?? []\n\n    if (b.length <= 1 && t.length <= 1) {\n      if (b.length === 1 && t.length === 1) {\n        const baseline = b[0]!\n        const treatment = t[0]!\n        if (baseline.repKey !== undefined || treatment.repKey !== undefined) {\n          if (\n            baseline.repKey === undefined ||\n            treatment.repKey === undefined ||\n            baseline.repKey !== treatment.repKey\n          ) {\n            unpairedBaseline.push(baseline)\n            unpairedTreatment.push(treatment)\n            continue\n          }\n        }\n        pairs.push({ pairKey, repIndex: 0, baseline, treatment })\n      } else {\n        unpairedBaseline.push(...b)\n        unpairedTreatment.push(...t)\n      }\n      continue\n    }\n\n    const bByRep = indexByRepKey(b, pairKey, baselineArm)\n    const tByRep = indexByRepKey(t, pairKey, treatmentArm)\n    const repKeys = [...new Set([...bByRep.keys(), ...tByRep.keys()])].sort()\n    let repIndex = 0\n    for (const repKey of repKeys) {\n      const baseline = bByRep.get(repKey)\n      const treatment = tByRep.get(repKey)\n      if (baseline !== undefined && treatment !== undefined) {\n        pairs.push({ pairKey, repIndex: repIndex++, baseline, treatment })\n      } else if (baseline !== undefined) {\n        unpairedBaseline.push(baseline)\n      } else if (treatment !== undefined) {\n        unpairedTreatment.push(treatment)\n      }\n    }\n  }\n\n  return { pairs, unpairedBaseline, unpairedTreatment }\n}\n\n/** Index a multi-rep (pairKey, arm) group by `repKey`, enforcing that every\n *  row carries one and that no repKey repeats within the group. */\nfunction indexByRepKey(\n  group: readonly PairedArmRow[],\n  pairKey: string,\n  arm: string,\n): Map<string, PairedArmRow> {\n  const byRep = new Map<string, PairedArmRow>()\n  for (const row of group) {\n    if (row.repKey === undefined) {\n      throw new ValidationError(\n        `pairArms: pairKey '${pairKey}' has multiple reps in an arm, but a row in arm '${arm}' ` +\n          `is missing repKey — multi-rep items require an explicit repKey on every row so reps ` +\n          `pair by identity (pairing reps by outcome or by index would bias the paired statistics)`,\n      )\n    }\n    if (byRep.has(row.repKey)) {\n      throw new ValidationError(\n        `pairArms: duplicate repKey '${row.repKey}' for pairKey '${pairKey}' in arm '${arm}' — ` +\n          `(pairKey, repKey) must uniquely identify a rep within an arm`,\n      )\n    }\n    byRep.set(row.repKey, row)\n  }\n  return byRep\n}\n\n/** Paired pass/fail comparison over the pairs where BOTH sides carry `pass`. */\nexport interface PairedCorrectness {\n  /** Discordant pairs where the treatment passed and the baseline failed. */\n  b10: number\n  /** Discordant pairs where the baseline passed and the treatment failed. */\n  b01: number\n  /** Exact McNemar significance over the paired outcomes (`b === b10`, `c === b01`). */\n  mcnemar: McNemarResult\n  /** Paired effect size: p(treatment) − p(baseline) with a paired-variance CI. */\n  riskDifference: RiskDifferenceResult\n}\n\n/** Paired delta summary for one named metric (delta = treatment − baseline). */\nexport interface PairedMetricDelta {\n  name: string\n  /** Pairs where BOTH sides carry a finite value for this metric. */\n  n: number\n  /** Pairs where at least one side does not carry the metric. */\n  nMissing: number\n  /** Median paired delta, or null when `n === 0`. */\n  medianDelta: number | null\n  /** Mean paired delta, or null when `n === 0`. */\n  meanDelta: number | null\n  /** Bootstrap CI on the paired delta (`pairedBootstrap`); null when\n   *  `n === 0` — a zero-width [0, 0] interval on no data would read as a\n   *  measured tight null. */\n  bootstrapCi: PairedBootstrapResult | null\n  /** Wilcoxon signed-rank test on the paired deltas; null when `n === 0`. */\n  wilcoxon: { w: number; p: number } | null\n}\n\nexport interface ComparePairedArmsOptions extends PairArmsOptions {\n  /** Metrics to compare. Default: every metric name observed on any matched\n   *  pair, sorted. A name that appears on no pair is still reported (with\n   *  `n = 0`) so a misspelled metric is visible instead of vanishing. */\n  metricNames?: string[]\n  /** Passed through to `pairedBootstrap` — set `seed` for reproducible CIs. */\n  bootstrap?: PairedBootstrapOptions\n}\n\nexport interface PairedArmsComparison {\n  nPairs: number\n  nUnpairedBaseline: number\n  nUnpairedTreatment: number\n  /** null when no matched pair carries `pass` on both sides — a pass/fail\n   *  verdict over rows that never measured pass/fail would be fabricated. */\n  correctness: PairedCorrectness | null\n  metricDeltas: PairedMetricDelta[]\n}\n\n/**\n * Full matched-pair arm comparison: pair via {@link pairArms}, then compose\n * the paired estimators from `statistics` over the matched pairs.\n *\n * Correctness uses only the pairs where both sides carry `pass` (`mcnemar.n`\n * is that subset's size); each metric uses only the pairs where both sides\n * carry a finite value for it, with the remainder counted in `nMissing`.\n * Deltas are treatment − baseline throughout.\n *\n * Fail-loud: inherits {@link pairArms}'s unknown-arm throw, and throws on a\n * non-finite metric value — silently treating corrupt telemetry as \"metric\n * absent\" would misreport it as missing coverage.\n */\nexport function comparePairedArms(\n  rows: readonly PairedArmRow[],\n  opts: ComparePairedArmsOptions,\n): PairedArmsComparison {\n  const { pairs, unpairedBaseline, unpairedTreatment } = pairArms(rows, opts)\n\n  let correctness: PairedCorrectness | null = null\n  const baselinePass: number[] = []\n  const treatmentPass: number[] = []\n  for (const pair of pairs) {\n    if (pair.baseline.pass === undefined || pair.treatment.pass === undefined) continue\n    baselinePass.push(pair.baseline.pass ? 1 : 0)\n    treatmentPass.push(pair.treatment.pass ? 1 : 0)\n  }\n  if (baselinePass.length > 0) {\n    const mc = mcnemar(baselinePass, treatmentPass)\n    correctness = {\n      b10: mc.b,\n      b01: mc.c,\n      mcnemar: mc,\n      riskDifference: pairedRiskDifference(baselinePass, treatmentPass),\n    }\n  }\n\n  const metricNames =\n    opts.metricNames ??\n    [\n      ...new Set(\n        pairs.flatMap((p) => [\n          ...Object.keys(p.baseline.metrics ?? {}),\n          ...Object.keys(p.treatment.metrics ?? {}),\n        ]),\n      ),\n    ].sort()\n\n  const metricDeltas: PairedMetricDelta[] = metricNames.map((name) => {\n    const before: number[] = []\n    const after: number[] = []\n    let nMissing = 0\n    for (const pair of pairs) {\n      const b = metricValue(pair.baseline, name)\n      const t = metricValue(pair.treatment, name)\n      if (b === undefined || t === undefined) {\n        nMissing++\n        continue\n      }\n      before.push(b)\n      after.push(t)\n    }\n    const bootstrapCi = before.length === 0 ? null : pairedBootstrap(before, after, opts.bootstrap)\n    return {\n      name,\n      n: before.length,\n      nMissing,\n      medianDelta: bootstrapCi?.median ?? null,\n      meanDelta: bootstrapCi?.mean ?? null,\n      bootstrapCi,\n      wilcoxon: before.length === 0 ? null : wilcoxonSignedRank(before, after),\n    }\n  })\n\n  return {\n    nPairs: pairs.length,\n    nUnpairedBaseline: unpairedBaseline.length,\n    nUnpairedTreatment: unpairedTreatment.length,\n    correctness,\n    metricDeltas,\n  }\n}\n\nexport interface MatchedRunRecordPair {\n  pairKey: string\n  repKey: string\n  baseline: RunRecord\n  treatment: RunRecord\n}\n\nexport interface PairRunRecordsResult {\n  pairs: MatchedRunRecordPair[]\n  unpairedBaseline: RunRecord[]\n  unpairedTreatment: RunRecord[]\n}\n\ninterface RunRecordArmRow extends PairedArmRow {\n  run: RunRecord\n  repKey: string\n}\n\n/**\n * Pair two RunRecord arms by the identity of the evaluated work:\n * `(experimentId, scenarioId, seed)`.\n *\n * Falling back to array order, candidate id, or experiment id can compare\n * different tasks and fabricate lift. Duplicate identities throw.\n */\nexport function pairRunRecords(\n  baselineRuns: readonly RunRecord[],\n  treatmentRuns: readonly RunRecord[],\n): PairRunRecordsResult {\n  const baselineRows = runRecordArmRows(baselineRuns, 'baseline')\n  const treatmentRows = runRecordArmRows(treatmentRuns, 'treatment')\n  validateRunRecordArmRows(baselineRows, 'baseline')\n  validateRunRecordArmRows(treatmentRows, 'treatment')\n  if (baselineRows.length === 0 || treatmentRows.length === 0) {\n    return {\n      pairs: [],\n      unpairedBaseline: baselineRows.map((row) => row.run),\n      unpairedTreatment: treatmentRows.map((row) => row.run),\n    }\n  }\n\n  const result = pairArms([...baselineRows, ...treatmentRows], {\n    baselineArm: 'baseline',\n    treatmentArm: 'treatment',\n  })\n  return {\n    pairs: result.pairs.map((pair) => {\n      const baseline = pair.baseline as RunRecordArmRow\n      const treatment = pair.treatment as RunRecordArmRow\n      return {\n        pairKey: pair.pairKey,\n        repKey: baseline.repKey,\n        baseline: baseline.run,\n        treatment: treatment.run,\n      }\n    }),\n    unpairedBaseline: result.unpairedBaseline.map((row) => (row as RunRecordArmRow).run),\n    unpairedTreatment: result.unpairedTreatment.map((row) => (row as RunRecordArmRow).run),\n  }\n}\n\nfunction runRecordArmRows(runs: readonly RunRecord[], arm: string): RunRecordArmRow[] {\n  return runs.map((run) => {\n    const scenarioId = run.scenarioId.trim()\n    if (!scenarioId) {\n      throw new ValidationError(\n        `pairRunRecords: run '${run.runId}' is missing scenarioId; paired comparisons require explicit scenario identity`,\n      )\n    }\n    return {\n      pairKey: JSON.stringify([run.experimentId, scenarioId]),\n      repKey: String(run.seed),\n      arm,\n      run,\n    }\n  })\n}\n\nfunction validateRunRecordArmRows(rows: readonly RunRecordArmRow[], arm: string): void {\n  const byPairKey = new Map<string, RunRecordArmRow[]>()\n  for (const row of rows) {\n    const group = byPairKey.get(row.pairKey) ?? []\n    group.push(row)\n    byPairKey.set(row.pairKey, group)\n  }\n  for (const [pairKey, group] of byPairKey) {\n    if (group.length > 1) indexByRepKey(group, pairKey, arm)\n  }\n}\n\nfunction metricValue(row: PairedArmRow, name: string): number | undefined {\n  const v = row.metrics?.[name]\n  if (v === undefined) return undefined\n  if (!Number.isFinite(v)) {\n    throw new ValidationError(\n      `comparePairedArms: non-finite value for metric '${name}' on pairKey '${row.pairKey}' (arm '${row.arm}'): ${v}`,\n    )\n  }\n  return 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package/dist/tool-waste-CP5DO383.d.ts.map

@@ -1 +0,0 @@
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