@tangle-network/agent-eval 0.188.0 → 0.189.0

package/dist/types-CW5b90JH.js.map

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+{"version":3,"file":"types-CW5b90JH.js","names":[],"sources":["../src/analyst/types.ts"],"sourcesContent":["/**\n * Analyst contract — the missing orchestration layer over agent-eval's\n * existing analyzers (analyzeTraces, MultiLayerVerifier,\n * SemanticConceptJudge, JudgeFn, ...).\n *\n * Each existing primitive returns its own output shape. The Analyst\n * contract is the single envelope every primitive lifts into, so a\n * registry can run N analysts against a run and a single renderer can\n * compose findings without knowing which analyzer produced them.\n *\n * The contract is intentionally domain-agnostic: nothing here knows\n * about code, voice, RAG, or any particular agent stack. Analysts\n * declare what INPUT KIND they need (a trace store, an artifact dir,\n * a RunRecord, a JudgeInput, or `custom`), and the registry routes\n * the matching input from `AnalystRunInputs`.\n */\n\nimport { createHash } from 'node:crypto'\nimport type { CostLedgerHandle, CostProvenance } from '../cost-ledger'\nimport type { RunRecord, RunTokenUsage } from '../run-record'\nimport type { TraceAnalysisStore } from '../trace-analyst/store'\nimport type { JudgeInput } from '../types'\nimport type { ChatClient } from './chat-client'\n\n/**\n * Unified envelope every analyst emits. Schema-versioned so renderers\n * and time-series diffs survive future field additions.\n */\nexport interface AnalystFinding {\n  schema_version: '1.0.0'\n  /**\n   * Stable hash over identity-defining fields (analyst_id + canonical\n   * claim + area + optional subject). Two findings from two runs that\n   * \"are the same finding\" share this id — that's what `diffFindings`\n   * uses to compute appeared/disappeared sets across runs.\n   */\n  finding_id: string\n  analyst_id: string\n  produced_at: string\n  severity: AnalystSeverity\n  /**\n   * Coarse classification. Renderers group by this. Free-form so\n   * domain-specific analysts can introduce categories without a\n   * schema change ('agent-reasoning', 'verification', 'cost',\n   * 'tool-use', 'safety', 'latency', 'data-quality', ...).\n   */\n  area: string\n  claim: string\n  rationale?: string\n  evidence_refs: EvidenceRef[]\n  recommended_action?: string\n  validation_plan?: string\n  /** 0..1 — the analyst's own confidence. Not calibrated across analysts. */\n  confidence: number\n  /**\n   * Optional subject the finding is about — leaf id, agent id, request\n   * id. Included in finding_id when present so per-subject findings\n   * diff cleanly across runs.\n   */\n  subject?: string\n  /** True when this finding was lifted from a judge result rather than observed\n   *  directly in a trace or artifact. Descriptive only: proposal access is\n   *  controlled by `ProposalFinding.proposal_origin`. */\n  derived_from_judge?: boolean\n  /** Analyst-private extras; renderers ignore unless they know the analyst. */\n  metadata?: Record<string, unknown>\n}\n\n/** Finding severity. `AnalystSeverity` derives from this array, so the type\n *  and the schema that validates a finding cannot name different levels. */\nexport const ANALYST_SEVERITIES = ['critical', 'high', 'medium', 'low', 'info'] as const\n\nexport type AnalystSeverity = (typeof ANALYST_SEVERITIES)[number]\n\n/** Data sources that candidate generation may intentionally learn from. */\nexport type ProposalFindingOrigin = 'search' | 'production'\n\n/** A finding explicitly admitted as candidate-generation input. */\nexport type ProposalFinding = AnalystFinding & {\n  readonly proposal_origin: ProposalFindingOrigin\n}\n\nexport interface EvidenceRef {\n  /**\n   * Where the evidence lives. `span` and `event` refer to OTLP trace\n   * elements; `artifact` to a file inside the run's artifact tree;\n   * `finding` to another AnalystFinding (cross-analyst chaining);\n   * `metric` to a named scalar reading the renderer knows how to read.\n   */\n  kind: 'span' | 'event' | 'artifact' | 'finding' | 'metric'\n  uri: string\n  excerpt?: string\n}\n\n// ── Analyst contract ─────────────────────────────────────────────────\n\n/**\n * The discriminator the registry uses to pass the right input.\n * `custom` is the escape hatch — analysts that need something else\n * (e.g. an embedding cache, a partner SDK handle) read it from\n * `AnalystRunInputs.custom[<analyst id>]`.\n */\nexport type AnalystInputKind =\n  | 'trace-store'\n  | 'artifact-dir'\n  | 'run-record'\n  | 'judge-input'\n  | 'custom'\n\nexport interface AnalystCost {\n  /** `deterministic` analysts MUST NOT call the LLM. */\n  kind: 'deterministic' | 'llm'\n  /** Optional declared upper bound; the registry can enforce a budget. */\n  est_usd_per_run?: number\n  /** Models the analyst expects to use (informational). */\n  models?: string[]\n  /** Maximum post-cancellation wait for provider usage. Model analysts default to 5 seconds. */\n  settlement_timeout_ms?: number\n}\n\nexport interface AnalystRequirements {\n  /** Min number of shots / samples the analyst needs to produce signal. */\n  min_shots?: number\n  /** Capabilities the runtime must supply (e.g. ['network', 'gpu']). */\n  capabilities?: string[]\n}\n\n/**\n * What's passed to every analyst call. The registry resolves which\n * field the analyst's `inputKind` selects and asserts it's present.\n */\nexport interface AnalystRunInputs {\n  traceStore?: TraceAnalysisStore\n  artifactDir?: string\n  runRecord?: RunRecord\n  judgeInput?: JudgeInput\n  /** Keyed by analyst id; populated by callers that registered custom analysts. */\n  custom?: Record<string, unknown>\n}\n\nexport interface AnalystContext {\n  runId: string\n  /** Stable correlation id so logs from a single registry.run() share a tag. */\n  correlationId: string\n  /** Enforced wall-clock deadline (epoch ms). */\n  deadlineMs?: number\n  /** Per-analyst USD budget. Analysts MAY check before issuing LLM calls. */\n  budgetUsd?: number\n  /** Shared paid-call account when the analyst runs inside a larger campaign. */\n  costLedger?: CostLedgerHandle\n  /** Attribution phase used when writing to the shared paid-call account. */\n  costPhase?: string\n  /**\n   * Shared chat client. Analysts that call an LLM go through this so\n   * the operator picks transport (sandbox-sdk | router | cli-bridge |\n   * direct-provider | mock) at the registry boundary without touching\n   * analyst code.\n   */\n  chat?: ChatClient\n  /**\n   * Findings from a prior run the operator wants the analyst to see as\n   * retrieval context. Kinds that take advantage of cross-run memory\n   * (failure-mode \"I saw this cluster last run\", knowledge-gap \"the wiki\n   * page I asked for is still missing\") render these into the actor's\n   * working set. Filtering is the operator's job: pass the slice that\n   * matches the analyst's id, or pass everything and let the kind\n   * filter. Empty / absent means no cross-run context.\n   */\n  priorFindings?: ReadonlyArray<AnalystFinding>\n  /**\n   * Findings emitted by analysts that completed earlier in this registry run.\n   * This is separate from `priorFindings`: upstream findings are dependency\n   * context for the current pass, while prior findings are cross-run memory.\n   * The registry populates this only when `RegistryRunOpts.chainFindings` is on.\n   */\n  upstreamFindings?: ReadonlyArray<AnalystFinding>\n  /**\n   * Report metered work independently of findings. This keeps an empty finding\n   * set from erasing token/cost telemetry. Multiple receipts are accumulated.\n   */\n  recordUsage?: (receipt: AnalystUsageReceipt) => void\n  /** Free-form runtime tags (env, host, op). Findings can echo these into metadata. */\n  tags?: Record<string, string>\n  /** Logger callback — analysts SHOULD prefer this over console.* for testability. */\n  log?: (msg: string, fields?: Record<string, unknown>) => void\n  /** Optional abort signal. Analysts SHOULD pass it through to LLM calls. */\n  signal?: AbortSignal\n  /**\n   * Optional live-execution port. A runtime that owns a sandbox or checkout\n   * fills it so an analyst can execute a bounded probe against the run's\n   * produced state instead of reasoning about it from the trace alone. This\n   * package defines only the port: no field here reaches for an agent loop,\n   * and an absent probe means the analyst works from recorded evidence.\n   */\n  probe?: ExecutionProbe\n}\n\n// ── Live-execution port ─────────────────────────────────────────────\n\n/** One bounded command an analyst asks the probe to run. */\nexport interface ExecutionProbeRequest {\n  command: string\n  /** Working directory inside the probed environment. */\n  cwd?: string\n  /** Hard wall-clock deadline for this one execution. */\n  timeoutMs: number\n  /** Bytes of combined output retained; the prober truncates beyond it. */\n  maxOutputBytes?: number\n  signal?: AbortSignal\n}\n\n/**\n * Typed outcome of one probe execution. `succeeded: false` is a PROBE failure\n * (the environment could not run the command); a command that ran and exited\n * non-zero is a successful observation with a non-zero `exitCode`.\n */\nexport type ExecutionProbeOutcome =\n  | {\n      succeeded: true\n      exitCode: number\n      stdout: string\n      stderr: string\n      durationMs: number\n      /** True when output was cut at `maxOutputBytes`. */\n      truncated: boolean\n    }\n  | { succeeded: false; error: { class: string; message: string } }\n\n/**\n * The seam a runtime fills to let analysts observe produced state live.\n * Implementations own sandboxing, credentials, and cleanup; analysts only\n * submit bounded requests and read typed outcomes.\n */\nexport interface ExecutionProbe {\n  /** One plain sentence naming what is being probed (e.g. a sandbox id). */\n  readonly description: string\n  execute(request: ExecutionProbeRequest): Promise<ExecutionProbeOutcome>\n}\n\n/**\n * The minimal contract. Concrete analysts can refine `TInput` so\n * implementations stay type-safe (e.g. a trace analyst's `TInput` is\n * `TraceAnalysisStore`); the registry passes the right field from\n * `AnalystRunInputs` based on `inputKind`.\n */\nexport interface Analyst<TInput = unknown> {\n  /** Stable identifier — appears in finding_id, telemetry, and registry exclusion lists. */\n  readonly id: string\n  /** Human-readable. One sentence. */\n  readonly description: string\n  readonly inputKind: AnalystInputKind\n  readonly cost: AnalystCost\n  readonly requires?: AnalystRequirements\n  /** Bump on breaking changes to claim wording or area so old finding_ids don't collide. */\n  readonly version: string\n  analyze(input: TInput, ctx: AnalystContext): Promise<AnalystFinding[]>\n}\n\n/** Metered work performed by one analyst call. */\nexport interface AnalystUsageReceipt {\n  /** Number of model-usage records observed at the provider boundary. */\n  calls: number | null\n  /** Null when the provider did not return token accounting. */\n  tokens: RunTokenUsage | null\n  /** Observed, estimated, or explicitly uncaptured dollar cost. */\n  cost: CostProvenance\n  /** Known lower bound when one or more calls have uncaptured cost. */\n  knownCostUsd?: number\n  /**\n   * Token counts the provider reported on only one side. Present exactly when\n   * `tokens` is null and at least one side WAS reported: `RunTokenUsage` has no\n   * nullable side, so a one-sided count cannot live in `tokens` without writing\n   * a zero nobody measured. Read it as a lower bound, never as a total — the\n   * field exists so a null `tokens` cannot hide a real count.\n   */\n  partialTokens?: { input: number | null; output: number | null }\n  /**\n   * True when the token counts were DERIVED by the transport (from character\n   * lengths, say) rather than measured by the model provider. `cost.kind` is\n   * `estimated` both for a rate estimate over exact tokens and for one over\n   * derived tokens; this is the field that separates them.\n   */\n  tokensEstimated?: boolean\n}\n\n// ── finding_id stability ─────────────────────────────────────────────\n\n/**\n * Compute the stable finding_id from the identity-defining fields.\n * Default implementation hashes {analyst_id, area, subject, normalized claim}.\n * Analysts that emit findings whose claim text varies per run (timestamps,\n * counts) SHOULD either: (a) pass an explicit `id_basis` to fix the hash,\n * or (b) move the variable part into `rationale`/`metadata` and keep the\n * `claim` static.\n */\nexport function computeFindingId(input: {\n  analyst_id: string\n  area: string\n  subject?: string\n  claim: string\n  /** Override the claim for hashing — use when the displayed claim has run-specific bits. */\n  id_basis?: string\n}): string {\n  const basis = JSON.stringify({\n    a: input.analyst_id,\n    r: input.area,\n    s: input.subject ?? '',\n    c: normalizeClaim(input.id_basis ?? input.claim),\n  })\n  return `f_${createHash('sha256').update(basis).digest('hex').slice(0, 20)}`\n}\n\nfunction normalizeClaim(c: string): string {\n  // Lowercase, collapse whitespace, strip trailing punctuation. Goal:\n  // \"Leaf X failed install\" and \"Leaf X failed install.\" hash the same.\n  return c\n    .toLowerCase()\n    .replace(/\\s+/g, ' ')\n    .replace(/[.!?;:,]+$/g, '')\n    .trim()\n}\n\n/**\n * Convenience factory: produce a fully-formed AnalystFinding with the\n * id computed automatically. Analyst code stays terse.\n */\nexport function makeFinding(\n  init: Omit<AnalystFinding, 'schema_version' | 'finding_id' | 'produced_at'> & {\n    id_basis?: string\n    produced_at?: string\n  },\n): AnalystFinding {\n  const { id_basis, produced_at, ...rest } = init\n  return {\n    schema_version: '1.0.0',\n    finding_id: computeFindingId({\n      analyst_id: rest.analyst_id,\n      area: rest.area,\n      subject: rest.subject,\n      claim: rest.claim,\n      id_basis,\n    }),\n    produced_at: produced_at ?? new Date().toISOString(),\n    ...rest,\n  }\n}\n\n/** Build a finding whose source is explicitly allowed during candidate generation. */\nexport function makeProposalFinding(\n  init: Omit<ProposalFinding, 'schema_version' | 'finding_id' | 'produced_at'> & {\n    id_basis?: string\n    produced_at?: string\n  },\n): ProposalFinding {\n  const { proposal_origin, ...finding } = init\n  return { ...makeFinding(finding), proposal_origin }\n}\n\n// ── Registry result envelope ────────────────────────────────────────\n\nexport interface AnalystRunSummary {\n  analyst_id: string\n  status: 'ok' | 'skipped' | 'failed'\n  /** Why skipped — missing input, budget exceeded, capability unmet. */\n  reason?: string\n  findings_count: number\n  latency_ms: number\n  /** Additive model usage and cost provenance for this analyst. */\n  usage: AnalystUsageReceipt\n  /** When `status='failed'`: the error class + message, never the full stack. */\n  error?: { class: string; message: string }\n}\n\nexport interface AnalystRunResult {\n  run_id: string\n  correlation_id: string\n  started_at: string\n  ended_at: string\n  findings: AnalystFinding[]\n  per_analyst: AnalystRunSummary[]\n  /** Total LLM cost in USD across all analysts in this registry.run(). */\n  total_cost_usd: number\n  /**\n   * Provenance for `total_cost_usd`. When uncaptured, the numeric field is only\n   * the known subtotal and must not be treated as the run's total spend.\n   */\n  total_cost_provenance?: CostProvenance\n}\n\n// ── Streaming event envelope ────────────────────────────────────────\n\n/**\n * Events emitted by `AnalystRegistry.runStream(...)` in real time as\n * the registry executes. UIs subscribe via `for await (const ev of\n * registry.runStream(...))`; `registry.run(...)` is a thin collector\n * over the same stream, so the two surfaces share their invariants.\n *\n * Per-finding events are intentionally omitted — analyzers are batch\n * operations (a recursive engine returns the full `findings:json[]` at the\n * end of the responder), so streaming inside one analyst would only\n * emit partial JSON consumers can't render. The kind-completion event\n * is the right granularity; subscribers wanting per-finding rendering\n * iterate `event.findings` themselves.\n */\nexport type AnalystRunEvent =\n  | {\n      type: 'run-started'\n      run_id: string\n      correlation_id: string\n      started_at: string\n      /** The ordered list of analyst ids the registry will run. */\n      analyst_ids: ReadonlyArray<string>\n    }\n  | {\n      type: 'analyst-skipped'\n      summary: AnalystRunSummary\n    }\n  | {\n      type: 'analyst-started'\n      analyst_id: string\n      started_at: string\n    }\n  | {\n      type: 'analyst-completed'\n      /** `summary.status` is `'ok'` for clean completion or `'failed'` for thrown analysts. */\n      summary: AnalystRunSummary\n      findings: ReadonlyArray<AnalystFinding>\n    }\n  | {\n      type: 'run-completed'\n      result: AnalystRunResult\n    }\n"],"mappings":";;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;AAsEA,MAAa,qBAAqB;CAAC;CAAY;CAAQ;CAAU;CAAO;AAAM;;;;;;;;;AAiO9E,SAAgB,iBAAiB,OAOtB;CACT,MAAM,QAAQ,KAAK,UAAU;EAC3B,GAAG,MAAM;EACT,GAAG,MAAM;EACT,GAAG,MAAM,WAAW;EACpB,GAAG,eAAe,MAAM,YAAY,MAAM,KAAK;CACjD,CAAC;CACD,OAAO,KAAK,WAAW,QAAQ,CAAC,CAAC,OAAO,KAAK,CAAC,CAAC,OAAO,KAAK,CAAC,CAAC,MAAM,GAAG,EAAE;AAC1E;AAEA,SAAS,eAAe,GAAmB;CAGzC,OAAO,EACJ,YAAY,CAAC,CACb,QAAQ,QAAQ,GAAG,CAAC,CACpB,QAAQ,eAAe,EAAE,CAAC,CAC1B,KAAK;AACV;;;;;AAMA,SAAgB,YACd,MAIgB;CAChB,MAAM,EAAE,UAAU,aAAa,GAAG,SAAS;CAC3C,OAAO;EACL,gBAAgB;EAChB,YAAY,iBAAiB;GAC3B,YAAY,KAAK;GACjB,MAAM,KAAK;GACX,SAAS,KAAK;GACd,OAAO,KAAK;GACZ;EACF,CAAC;EACD,aAAa,gCAAe,IAAI,KAAK,EAAA,CAAE,YAAY;EACnD,GAAG;CACL;AACF;;AAGA,SAAgB,oBACd,MAIiB;CACjB,MAAM,EAAE,iBAAiB,GAAG,YAAY;CACxC,OAAO;EAAE,GAAG,YAAY,OAAO;EAAG;CAAgB;AACpD"}

package/dist/{types-5ak2PqnJ.d.ts → types-Cvqy7asY.d.ts}

@@ -1,5 +1,5 @@
-import { s as RunSplitTag } from "./run-record-xEULpgML.js";
-import { R as Scenario, d as DispatchContext } from "./types-B1vDZ694.js";
+import { c as RunSplitTag } from "./run-record-DF-fuu31.js";
+import { R as Scenario, d as DispatchContext } from "./types-BvmWNjjs.js";
 //#region src/benchmarks/types.d.ts
 type BenchmarkTaskKind = 'retrieval' | 'rag-answer' | 'hallucination' | 'kb-improvement' | 'routing' | 'custom';
 type BenchmarkFamily = 'beir' | 'mteb-retrieval' | 'msmarco' | 'trec-dl' | 'miracl' | 'lotte' | 'bright' | 'crag' | 'hotpotqa' | 'kilt' | 'ragtruth' | 'faithbench' | 'first-party' | 'custom';
@@ -99,4 +99,4 @@ declare const BENCHMARK_SPLIT_SEED = "agent-eval-v1";
 declare function deterministicSplit(itemId: string, seed?: string): RunSplitTag;
 //#endregion
 export { BenchmarkFamily as a, BenchmarkSource as c, BenchmarkEvaluation as i, BenchmarkTaskKind as l, BenchmarkAdapter as n, BenchmarkResponder as o, BenchmarkDatasetItem as r, BenchmarkScenario as s, BENCHMARK_SPLIT_SEED as t, deterministicSplit as u };
-//# sourceMappingURL=types-5ak2PqnJ.d.ts.map
+//# sourceMappingURL=types-Cvqy7asY.d.ts.map

package/dist/{types-5ak2PqnJ.d.ts.map → types-Cvqy7asY.d.ts.map}

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package/dist/{types-Tp5WhYL9.d.ts → types-DRNlLbBR.d.ts}

@@ -1,5 +1,5 @@
 import { t as SeriesDistribution } from "./descriptive-B2iPaT9J.js";
-import { m as RolloutLine } from "./schema-BzWDXhOR.js";
+import { m as RolloutLine } from "./schema-B5LtYvn9.js";
 //#region src/supervisor-run/types.d.ts
 /** A metric that could not be computed, with the reason its artifact was missing. */
 interface Unavailable {
@@ -546,4 +546,4 @@ interface SupervisorRunTreeGap {
 }
 //#endregion
 export { WallDistribution as A, SupervisorRunSources as C, SupervisorStatusSource as D, SupervisorRunTreeGapCode as E, showMeasured as F, unavailable as I, WorkerNativeSession as M, WorkerTurnCoverage as N, TerminalFailure as O, isUnavailable as P, SupervisorRunRollup as S, SupervisorRunTreeGap as T, SpendMeasurements as _, NamedResourceReceipt as a, SupervisorRunReader as b, PatchStats as c, RoleSpend as d, RollupCellRow as f, SpendMeasurement as g, SourceLimits as h, NO_SOURCE_LIMITS as i, WorkerLogSource as j, Unavailable as k, PerWorkerRow as l, SUPERVISOR_RUN_SCHEMA as m, EconomicsMetrics as n, OrchestrationMetrics as o, SUPERVISOR_RUN_ROLLUP_SCHEMA as p, Measured as r, OutcomeMetrics as s, DecisionMetrics as t, ResourceSpendRecord as u, SteerBreakdown as v, SupervisorRunTree as w, SupervisorRunReport as x, SupervisorRunNodeRole as y };
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package/dist/{types-Tp5WhYL9.d.ts.map → types-DRNlLbBR.d.ts.map}

@@ -1 +1 @@
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package/dist/wire/index.d.ts

@@ -1,7 +1,7 @@
 import { b as CustomTokenPricing, c as CostLedgerHandle } from "../cost-ledger-DbQdN3nO.js";
 import { x as ChatClient } from "../types-C0bWoSKC.js";
 import { s as TraceStore } from "../store-C4avFjIi.js";
-import { m as FeedbackTrajectoryStore } from "../feedback-trajectory-BJi4t3Vf.js";
+import { m as FeedbackTrajectoryStore } from "../feedback-trajectory-B3ZSkfAq.js";
 import { z } from "zod";
 import { ServerType } from "@hono/node-server";
 import { Hono } from "hono";

package/docs/code-agent-intake.md

@@ -24,7 +24,7 @@ const { runs, diagnostics, metrics, observations } = fromCodexSession({
 
 1. **Read the transcript.** `parseCodeAgentJsonl(text)` for a string you already hold, `parseCodeAgentJsonlFile(path)` for a file. Both return `{ entries, malformedLines }`; a line that is not JSON is counted, never dropped silently.
 2. **Convert it.** One function per harness, below. Each returns `runs`, `diagnostics`, `metrics`, and `observations`.
-3. **Read `diagnostics` before `runs`.** One `CodeAgentSessionDiagnostic` per session records what the transcript actually carried: `malformedLines`, `hasExplicitTerminalSignal`, `hasFinalOutput`, `hasQualityLabel`, `hasTokenUsage`, `hasCost`, the `costKind` that was used, and any `warnings`. A run whose diagnostic says `hasCost: false` has no cost, not a cost of zero — check the flag before you aggregate the field.
+3. **Read `diagnostics` before `runs`.** One `CodeAgentSessionDiagnostic` per session records what the transcript actually carried: `malformedLines`, `hasExplicitTerminalSignal`, `hasFinalOutput`, `hasQualityLabel`, `hasTokenUsage`, `hasCost`, the `costKind` that was used, and any `warnings`. A run whose diagnostic says `hasCost: false` has no known total cost, not a cost of zero — check the flag before you aggregate the field. A `lower-bound` cost states only a floor, in `costProvenance.knownLowerBoundUsd`.
 
 ## One function per harness
 

package/docs/insight-report.md

@@ -103,8 +103,9 @@ Store it as `RunRecord.outcome.judgeScores` alongside the relevant search or hol
 Different judge means can reflect different coverage, scales, or criteria.
 Compare shared cases before attributing a difference to miscalibration.
 
-`costQuality.provenance` separates observed USD, estimated USD, and uncaptured costs.
-Uncaptured rows are excluded from the cost distribution and Pareto calculation.
+`costQuality.provenance` separates observed USD, estimated USD, lower-bound floors, and uncaptured costs.
+Lower-bound and uncaptured rows are excluded from the cost distribution and Pareto calculation.
+`lowerBound.floorUsd` sums the proven floors of runs whose total is unknown; it is never a total.
 Read `knownFraction` and `costQuality.degraded` before comparing costs.
 A frontier only compares the observed candidate points; it does not identify the best possible system.
 

package/docs/public-api.md

@@ -371,7 +371,7 @@ The `none` set was reviewed symbol by symbol on 2026-08-21. Four rules decided m
 | `requiredSampleSize` | planned | doc: docs/design/statistics-decisions.md |
 | `resolveModelPricing` | production | agent-dev-container:products/intelligence/api/src/lib/optimization-primitives.ts |
 | `resolveSeat` | production | creative-agent:eval/agent.config.ts |
-| `roundTripRunRecord` | none | only this package's tests: tests/run-record.test.ts:3 |
+| `roundTripRunRecord` | none | none |
 | `routeFields` | none | only this package's tests: src/hidden-criteria-grading.test.ts:4 |
 | `runAgentControlLoop` | production | agent-runtime:src/run.ts |
 | `runBoundedProcess` | production | this package: src/command-runner.ts:28 |
@@ -1211,7 +1211,7 @@ The `none` set was reviewed symbol by symbol on 2026-08-21. Four rules decided m
 | `toTRLFormat` | production | blueprint-agent:scripts/experiments/lib/steering-dataset.ts |
 | `validateDatasetFormats` | planned | example: examples/publish-rl-dataset/build-dataset.ts:30 |
 | `varianceBasedCurriculum` | production | this package: src/fuzz/explorer.ts:18 |
-| `verificationReportToRunRecord` | none | only this package's tests: tests/rl-adapters.test.ts:5 |
+| `verificationReportToRunRecord` | none | none |
 | `VERIFIED_FINDING_SCHEMA` | none | only this package's tests: src/rl/verified-findings-dataset.test.ts:5 |
 | `verifiedFindingsToJsonl` | none | only this package's tests: src/rl/verified-findings-dataset.test.ts:5 |
 

package/docs/rollout.md

@@ -72,13 +72,13 @@ Rule applied: where fields conflicted, RunRecord-derived semantics won; the ledg
 | field | from | decision |
 | --- | --- | --- |
 | `schema: "tangle.rollout.v1"` | ledger | wire key is `schema` (PR #410's `format` key retired) |
-| `rollout_id` / `parent_rollout_id` | ledger | minted lines use `runId` as `rollout_id` (deterministic); multi-agent producers mint UUIDs and point workers at their supervisor |
+| `rollout_id` / `parent_rollout_id` | ledger | minted lines use `runId` as `rollout_id` (deterministic; a search run's id is `cellId:attempt`); multi-agent producers mint UUIDs and point workers at their supervisor; a nested search run points at the run of the cell that contains the search |
 | `run_id` | both | `RunRecord.runId` |
 | `experiment_id`, `candidate_id` | PR #410 | required keys; `null` means the producer did not record the value |
-| `generation`, `candidate_index` | ledger | kept as improvement-loop coordinates; now `integer \| null` (`null` = not an improvement loop, `-1` = baseline) |
+| `generation`, `candidate_index` | ledger | search coordinates: node depth (`0` = the search root) and node registration order; `null` = not a search run. Mint fills both from `searchLineage` for a record with `search` coordinates and refuses such a record without it |
 | `role` | ledger | enum extended with `agent` for solo eval runs (mint default) |
 | `task.split` | conflict | **RunRecord semantics win**: `search` is the trainable pool; `dev` and `holdout` follow `RunSplitTag`; `canary` is retained for release checks |
-| `task.seed`, `task.rep` | ledger | seed from `RunRecord.seed`; rep 0 for minted solo runs |
+| `task.seed`, `task.rep` | ledger | seed from `RunRecord.seed`; rep from the search cell for a search run, 0 for other minted runs |
 | `policy.*` | ledger | + `prompt_hash`, `config_hash`, `agent_profile_cell_id` from PR #410's RunRecord provenance |
 | `messages` | ledger | canonical OpenAI chat-with-tools incl. `reasoning_content`; minted lines inline the final llm span's conversation |
 | `steps` | PR #410 | optional trace-span projections (llm/tool), absent on harness-store-derived lines |
@@ -86,8 +86,8 @@ Rule applied: where fields conflicted, RunRecord-derived semantics won; the ledg
 | `outcome.realness_gated` | PR #410 | required boolean; the anti-Goodhart gate travels into the data, the validator refuses it beside a positive reward, and SFT export refuses gated lines outright. `outcome.realness_screened` rides beside it (optional tri-state) so a screened-clean reward is distinguishable from a never-screened one |
 | `outcome.reward_source` / `verdict` / `metrics` | ledger | unchanged; mint fills `metrics` from `RunRecord.outcome.raw` |
 | `outcome.is_completed` / `is_truncated` / `error` | conflict | mint derives terminal fields from the required `RunRecord.terminalOutcome`; producers use the explicit `unknown` value when terminal evidence is unavailable |
-| `cost.*` | ledger | superset of PR #410's costUsd/totalTokens; `cost.usd` is `null` when `costProvenance.kind === 'uncaptured'` (never a fake 0) |
-| `artifacts.*`, `provenance.*` | ledger | `provenance.capture` gains `mint` alongside `settle-time` / `backfill` |
+| `cost.*` | ledger | superset of PR #410's costUsd/totalTokens; `cost.usd` is `null` unless `costProvenance.kind` is `observed` or `estimated`: an `uncaptured` cost is unknown and a `lower-bound` cost is only a floor (never a fake 0, never a floor read as a total) |
+| `artifacts.*`, `provenance.*` | ledger | `provenance.capture` gains `mint` alongside `settle-time` / `backfill`; minted lines set `artifacts.transcript_ref` to `trace:<traceId>` from `RunRecord.traceRef` |
 | gap discipline | ledger | records without trace spans become labeled gap lines (`messages: []`, `provenance.gap`) AND are listed in `missingTraces`; PR #410's silent skip retired |
 
 ## Export filters (fail-closed)

package/docs/search-history-receipts.md

@@ -230,3 +230,4 @@ The final receipt retains caller authority, including `candidate-self-report`, w
 `search-ledger-types.ts` defines the shared data contracts, reexported through the existing facade.
 `search-ledger-ordering.ts` shares artifact identity and deterministic string ordering between normalization and replay.
 The journal in `src/ledger-core` owns hashing, locking, durable appends, and chain verification.
+An open journal verifies its whole file once, then each append checks that its verified head row is still in place and reads only the rows past it, so an append costs one entry's bytes at any ledger length.

package/package.json

@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
 {
   "name": "@tangle-network/agent-eval",
-  "version": "0.188.0",
+  "version": "0.189.0",
   "description": "Evaluate and improve AI agents from runs, traces, judges, and feedback. Compare candidates, cluster failures, measure lift, and gate releases.",
   "homepage": "https://github.com/tangle-network/agent-eval#readme",
   "repository": {

package/dist/analyze-runs-DCY7LMt4.js.map

@@ -1 +0,0 @@
-{"version":3,"file":"analyze-runs-DCY7LMt4.js","names":[],"sources":["../src/contamination-guard.ts","../src/contract/analyze-runs.ts"],"sourcesContent":["/**\n * ContaminationGuard — ensures held-out scenarios don't leak into\n * training/prompt paths, and flags model memorization.\n *\n * Three probes:\n *   1. `checkCanaries(output, scenario)` — if the scenario carries a\n *      canary token, it MUST NOT appear in the agent's output.\n *      Canaries are strings that are statistically impossible to\n *      reconstruct from the scenario description alone — so if they\n *      echo back, the model memorized them.\n *   2. `canaryLeakView(store)` — cross-corpus view of every run whose\n *      output contained a canary, with the offending scenario + run.\n *   3. `HoldoutAuditor` — wraps a Dataset and emits a structured error\n *      on any code path that reads holdout scenarios but doesn't flag\n *      `purpose: 'evaluation'`. Keeps engineers honest.\n */\n\nimport type { DatasetScenario } from './dataset'\nimport { llmSpans } from './trace/query'\nimport type { TraceStore } from './trace/store'\n\nexport interface CanaryLeak {\n  scenarioId: string\n  canary: string\n  runId?: string\n  evidence: string\n}\n\nexport function checkCanaries(output: string, scenarios: DatasetScenario[]): CanaryLeak[] {\n  const leaks: CanaryLeak[] = []\n  for (const s of scenarios) {\n    if (!s.canary) continue\n    if (output.includes(s.canary)) {\n      leaks.push({ scenarioId: s.id, canary: s.canary, evidence: excerpt(output, s.canary) })\n    }\n  }\n  return leaks\n}\n\n/**\n * Behavioral canary: tests the AGENT, not the eval grep.\n *\n *   - `forbiddenPattern` PRESENT in output ⇒ AGENT EMITTED BAD CONTENT ⇒ LEAK.\n *   - `forbiddenPattern` ABSENT from output ⇒ AGENT HELD THE LINE       ⇒ PASS.\n *\n * Use when running known-bad-prompt scenarios against the agent under\n * test and you want to know if the agent misbehaved. The classical\n * {@link checkCanaries} / {@link import('./canary').runCanaries | runCanaries}\n * test whether the eval check fires when the bad output is forced\n * into the eval flow — different question, different answer.\n *\n * Pattern resolution order (first match wins):\n *   1. `scenario.forbiddenPattern` — if it parses as `/body/flags`,\n *      treated as a regex; otherwise a literal substring.\n *   2. `scenario.canary` — literal substring fallback so the helper\n *      works on existing scenario fixtures.\n *\n * Returns `null` when nothing forbidden was found OR the scenario\n * declared no pattern.\n */\nexport function checkBehavioralCanary(\n  output: string,\n  scenario: DatasetScenario,\n): CanaryLeak | null {\n  const pattern = scenario.forbiddenPattern ?? scenario.canary\n  if (!pattern) return null\n  const hit = matchForbidden(output, pattern)\n  if (!hit) return null\n  return {\n    scenarioId: scenario.id,\n    canary: pattern,\n    evidence: excerpt(output, hit),\n  }\n}\n\n/**\n * Behavioral canary over many (scenario, output) pairs. Sibling to\n * {@link import('./canary').runCanaries | runCanaries} — same idea\n * (run-many → report) but the question being answered is \"did the\n * AGENT misbehave?\" rather than \"did the EVAL grep fire?\".\n *\n * Returns one `CanaryLeak` per pair where the agent's output\n * contained its scenario's `forbiddenPattern` (or `canary` fallback).\n */\nexport function runBehavioralCanaries(\n  cases: Array<{ scenario: DatasetScenario; output: string; runId?: string }>,\n): CanaryLeak[] {\n  const leaks: CanaryLeak[] = []\n  for (const c of cases) {\n    const leak = checkBehavioralCanary(c.output, c.scenario)\n    if (leak) leaks.push({ ...leak, runId: c.runId ?? leak.runId })\n  }\n  return leaks\n}\n\n/**\n * Resolve a forbidden-pattern string to the matched substring inside\n * `output`. `/body/flags` notation is interpreted as a regex; anything\n * else is a literal substring.\n */\nfunction matchForbidden(output: string, pattern: string): string | null {\n  const re = tryParseRegex(pattern)\n  if (re) {\n    const m = output.match(re)\n    return m && m[0].length > 0 ? m[0] : null\n  }\n  return output.includes(pattern) ? pattern : null\n}\n\nfunction tryParseRegex(pattern: string): RegExp | null {\n  if (pattern.length < 2 || pattern[0] !== '/') return null\n  const last = pattern.lastIndexOf('/')\n  if (last <= 0) return null\n  const body = pattern.slice(1, last)\n  const flags = pattern.slice(last + 1)\n  if (!/^[gimsuy]*$/.test(flags)) return null\n  try {\n    return new RegExp(body, flags)\n  } catch {\n    return null\n  }\n}\n\n/**\n * Scan the LLM-output history in a corpus; returns every case where a\n * canary from a known scenario appeared in agent output. Pass the full\n * set of scenarios whose canaries you care about (typically the whole\n * held-out slice).\n */\nexport async function canaryLeakView(\n  store: TraceStore,\n  scenarios: DatasetScenario[],\n): Promise<CanaryLeak[]> {\n  const targets = scenarios.filter((s) => !!s.canary)\n  if (targets.length === 0) return []\n  const spans = await llmSpans(store)\n  const leaks: CanaryLeak[] = []\n  for (const span of spans) {\n    const output = span.output ?? ''\n    for (const s of targets) {\n      if (s.canary && output.includes(s.canary)) {\n        leaks.push({\n          scenarioId: s.id,\n          canary: s.canary,\n          runId: span.runId,\n          evidence: excerpt(output, s.canary),\n        })\n      }\n    }\n  }\n  return leaks\n}\n\nexport class HoldoutAuditor {\n  private scenarios: DatasetScenario[]\n  private accessLog: Array<{ scenarioId: string; purpose: string; at: number }> = []\n\n  constructor(scenarios: DatasetScenario[]) {\n    this.scenarios = scenarios\n  }\n\n  /** Retrieve a holdout scenario for a declared purpose. Non-'evaluation' throws. */\n  get(scenarioId: string, purpose: 'evaluation' | 'debugging'): DatasetScenario {\n    if (purpose !== 'evaluation' && purpose !== 'debugging') {\n      throw new Error(\n        `HoldoutAuditor.get: purpose must be 'evaluation' or 'debugging', got ${purpose}`,\n      )\n    }\n    const s = this.scenarios.find((x) => x.id === scenarioId)\n    if (!s) throw new Error(`holdout scenario \"${scenarioId}\" not found`)\n    this.accessLog.push({ scenarioId, purpose, at: Date.now() })\n    return s\n  }\n\n  getAccessLog(): ReadonlyArray<{ scenarioId: string; purpose: string; at: number }> {\n    return this.accessLog\n  }\n}\n\nfunction excerpt(source: string, needle: string): string {\n  const at = source.indexOf(needle)\n  if (at < 0) return ''\n  const start = Math.max(0, at - 30)\n  const end = Math.min(source.length, at + needle.length + 30)\n  return (start > 0 ? '…' : '') + source.slice(start, end) + (end < source.length ? '…' : '')\n}\n","/**\n * # `analyzeRuns()` — turn a set of agent runs into an actionable decision packet.\n *\n * Wires the substrate's statistical, calibration, clustering, Pareto, and\n * release-confidence primitives into one `InsightReport`. Two top-level\n * entry points use this function:\n *\n *   - `selfImprove()` calls it on the campaign output to attach a packet\n *     to every run.\n *   - Consumers with observed `RunRecord[]` (production traces, gold\n *     corpora, approve/reject tables) call it directly via `analyzeRuns()`\n *     for analysis without a closed loop.\n *\n * Every section is opt-in based on what the input data supports — the\n * function never invents signal. If runs carry no judge scores, `judges`\n * is empty. If there's no baseline/candidate split, `lift` is undefined.\n * If no `analyst` is wired, `failureClusters` is undefined.\n *\n * The `recommendations` array is the human-readable layer; everything\n * else is the evidence backing each recommendation.\n */\n\nimport type { AnalystRegistry } from '../analyst/registry'\nimport type { AnalystFinding } from '../analyst/types'\nimport { welchsTTest } from '../baseline'\nimport { aggregatePairedHoldout } from '../campaign/gates/statistical-heldout'\nimport { checkCanaries } from '../contamination-guard'\nimport type { DatasetScenario } from '../dataset'\nimport { continuousAgreement } from '../judge-calibration'\nimport { pairRunRecords } from '../paired-arms'\nimport { observedSplitScore } from '../rollout/reward'\nimport {\n  type RunRecord,\n  type RunTerminalOutcome,\n  type RunTokenUsage,\n  validateRunRecord,\n} from '../run-record'\nimport {\n  BOOTSTRAP_GATE_MIN_N,\n  pairedBootstrap,\n  pairedCohensDz,\n  pairedMde,\n  pairedTTest,\n  pearsonR,\n  requiredPairedSampleSize,\n  spearmanR,\n} from '../statistics'\nimport { type ParetoFigureSpec, paretoChart } from '../summary-report'\nimport type { FailureClass } from '../trace/schema'\n\nimport type {\n  CostProvenanceSummary,\n  ExecutionInsight,\n  FailureClassTally,\n  FailureClusterInsight,\n  InsightReport,\n  InterRaterInsight,\n  JudgeInsight,\n  LiftInsight,\n  MetricDelta,\n  OutcomeCorrelationInsight,\n  PriorPeriodComparison,\n  Recommendation,\n  ScalarDistribution,\n  TokenUsageInsight,\n} from './insight-report'\n\n// ── Public API ───────────────────────────────────────────────────────\n\nexport interface AnalyzeRunsOptions {\n  /** The runs to analyze. */\n  runs: RunRecord[]\n  /** Which split to score against when reading composite from RunOutcome.\n   *  Default: holdout when ANY run has a `holdoutScore`, else search. */\n  split?: 'search' | 'holdout' | 'auto'\n  /** Pairwise analysis configuration. When both `baselineCandidateId` and\n   *  `candidateCandidateId` are present, lift is computed on paired\n   *  (experimentId, scenarioId, seed) identities shared between the two sides.\n   *  Unmatched rows remain visible in the lift result. */\n  baselineCandidateId?: string\n  candidateCandidateId?: string\n  /** Average matched run scores within these units before estimating lift.\n   *  Raw run distributions and unmatched-run counts remain unchanged. */\n  independentUnitByScenarioId?: ReadonlyMap<string, string>\n  /** Canary scenarios — checked against every run's raw output for\n   *  holdout contamination. */\n  canaryScenarios?: DatasetScenario[]\n  /** Analyst registry for failure clustering. When omitted, the\n   *  `failureClusters` section is left undefined. */\n  analyst?: AnalystRegistry\n  /** Downstream outcome metric per run (e.g. engagement rate, approval\n   *  rate, downstream pass rate). When present, the report includes\n   *  `outcomeCorrelation` + a simple linear reward model fit. */\n  outcomeSignal?: {\n    metric: string\n    valueByRunId: Record<string, number>\n  }\n  /** Multi-rater feedback for inter-rater agreement. Each entry is one\n   *  rater's score for one run. Two or more raters → kappa + disagreement\n   *  triage list. */\n  raterScores?: Array<{ runId: string; rater: string; score: number }>\n  /** Number of histogram bins for distributional summaries. Default 12. */\n  histogramBins?: number\n  /** Decision threshold — the smallest composite lift the caller cares\n   *  about. Used by the recommendations engine to call ship vs hold.\n   *  Default 0.02. */\n  decisionThreshold?: number\n  /** Optional prior-period runs. When set, the report includes\n   *  `priorPeriodComparison` with per-metric Welch-CI deltas and\n   *  recommendations fire on statistically significant regressions.\n   *  The two windows do NOT have to share scenarios — the comparison\n   *  is two-sample unpaired (the substrate's `lift` field uses paired\n   *  bootstrap on shared (experimentId, scenarioId, seed) identities; this is the\n   *  shape for \"this week vs last week\" rather than \"candidate vs\n   *  baseline within a campaign\"). */\n  baselineRuns?: RunRecord[]\n  /** Human-readable label for the baseline window, e.g. \"vs prior 7\n   *  days\", \"vs v3.1 release\". Surfaces in recommendations + UI. */\n  baselineLabel?: string\n}\n\nexport interface SummarizeExecutionOptions {\n  runs: RunRecord[]\n  histogramBins?: number\n}\n\nexport interface ExecutionReport {\n  execution: ExecutionInsight\n  costProvenance: CostProvenanceSummary\n}\n\n/** Summarize runtime facts without interpreting task quality or promotion readiness. */\nexport function summarizeExecution(opts: SummarizeExecutionOptions): ExecutionReport {\n  const runs = opts.runs.map(validateRunRecord)\n  const bins = opts.histogramBins ?? 12\n  return {\n    execution: computeExecutionInsight(runs, bins),\n    costProvenance: summarizeCostProvenance(runs),\n  }\n}\n\n/** A bootstrap interval with no spread: every resample landed on the same\n *  value, so the interval carries no information about how far the point\n *  estimate could be wrong and cannot support a directional claim. */\nfunction zeroWidth(ci: readonly [number, number]): boolean {\n  return !Number.isFinite(ci[0]) || !Number.isFinite(ci[1]) || ci[0] === ci[1]\n}\n\nexport async function analyzeRuns(opts: AnalyzeRunsOptions): Promise<InsightReport> {\n  const runs = opts.runs.map(validateRunRecord)\n  const bins = opts.histogramBins ?? 12\n  const threshold = opts.decisionThreshold ?? 0.02\n  if (!Number.isFinite(threshold)) {\n    throw new Error(`analyzeRuns: decisionThreshold must be finite, got ${threshold}`)\n  }\n  const split = resolveSplit(runs, opts.split ?? 'auto')\n\n  const compositeWithIds = runs\n    .map((r) => ({ runId: r.runId, score: compositeOf(r, split) }))\n    .filter((p) => Number.isFinite(p.score))\n  const composite = distributionOf(\n    compositeWithIds.map((p) => p.score),\n    bins,\n    compositeWithIds,\n  )\n\n  const perDimension = computePerDimension(runs, bins)\n  const { execution, costProvenance: provenance } = summarizeExecution({\n    runs,\n    histogramBins: bins,\n  })\n  const knownCostRuns = runs.filter((run) => run.costProvenance.kind !== 'uncaptured')\n  const costs = knownCostRuns.map((r) => r.costUsd).filter(isFiniteNumber)\n  const costDist = distributionOf(costs, bins)\n  const pareto = paretoChart(knownCostRuns, { split })\n  const degraded: { cost?: string; pareto?: string } = {}\n  if (provenance.uncaptured.n > 0) {\n    degraded.cost = diagnoseCostCoverage(runs, provenance)\n  } else if (costs.length === 0 || costs.every((c) => c === 0)) {\n    degraded.cost = `all ${runs.length} explicitly observed or estimated USD values are $0`\n  }\n  if (pareto.points.length < 2) {\n    degraded.pareto =\n      pareto.points.length === 0\n        ? 'no candidates — Pareto unavailable'\n        : 'single candidate — Pareto is a single point, not a frontier'\n  }\n  const costQuality = {\n    cost: costDist,\n    pareto,\n    provenance,\n    ...(degraded.cost || degraded.pareto ? { degraded } : {}),\n  }\n\n  const judges = computeJudgeInsights(runs)\n\n  const interRater = opts.raterScores ? computeInterRater(opts.raterScores) : undefined\n\n  const lift = computeLift(\n    runs,\n    opts.baselineCandidateId,\n    opts.candidateCandidateId,\n    split,\n    opts.independentUnitByScenarioId,\n  )\n\n  const failureClusters = opts.analyst\n    ? await computeFailureClusters(runs, opts.analyst, split)\n    : undefined\n\n  const failureClasses = computeFailureClasses(runs, split)\n\n  const contamination = opts.canaryScenarios\n    ? computeContamination(runs, opts.canaryScenarios)\n    : undefined\n\n  const outcomeCorrelation = opts.outcomeSignal\n    ? computeOutcomeCorrelation(runs, opts.outcomeSignal, split)\n    : undefined\n\n  const release = buildReleaseScorecard(composite, lift, contamination)\n\n  const priorPeriodComparison = opts.baselineRuns\n    ? computePriorPeriodComparison(runs, opts.baselineRuns, split, opts.baselineLabel)\n    : undefined\n\n  const recommendations = buildRecommendations({\n    composite,\n    judges,\n    interRater,\n    lift,\n    failureClusters,\n    failureClasses,\n    contamination,\n    outcomeCorrelation,\n    priorPeriodComparison,\n    threshold,\n  })\n\n  return {\n    n: runs.length,\n    execution,\n    composite,\n    perDimension,\n    costQuality,\n    judges,\n    interRater,\n    lift,\n    failureClusters,\n    contamination,\n    outcomeCorrelation,\n    release,\n    ...(failureClasses ? { failureClasses } : {}),\n    ...(priorPeriodComparison ? { priorPeriodComparison } : {}),\n    recommendations,\n  }\n}\n\nfunction computeExecutionInsight(runs: RunRecord[], bins: number): ExecutionInsight {\n  const aggregateRows = runs.flatMap((run) => {\n    const usage = aggregateTokenUsage(run)\n    return usage ? [{ usage, costUsd: finiteRaw(run, 'aggregate_cost_usd') }] : []\n  })\n  const aggregateCosts = aggregateRows.flatMap((row) =>\n    row.costUsd !== undefined ? [row.costUsd] : [],\n  )\n  const modelCounts = new Map<string, number>()\n  let executionErrorRuns = 0\n  let executionErrorEvents = 0\n  let errorReportingRuns = 0\n  let errorSpanEvents = 0\n  let errorSpanReportingRuns = 0\n  const terminalOutcomes: Record<RunTerminalOutcome, number> = {\n    succeeded: 0,\n    failed: 0,\n    cancelled: 0,\n    incomplete: 0,\n    unknown: 0,\n  }\n  const errorsByTerminalOutcome: ExecutionInsight['executionErrors']['byTerminalOutcome'] = {\n    succeeded: { withErrors: 0, withoutErrors: 0, unreported: 0 },\n    failed: { withErrors: 0, withoutErrors: 0, unreported: 0 },\n    cancelled: { withErrors: 0, withoutErrors: 0, unreported: 0 },\n    incomplete: { withErrors: 0, withoutErrors: 0, unreported: 0 },\n    unknown: { withErrors: 0, withoutErrors: 0, unreported: 0 },\n  }\n  let modelCallRuns = 0\n  let modelCallEvents = 0\n  let modelCallReportingRuns = 0\n\n  for (const run of runs) {\n    modelCounts.set(run.model, (modelCounts.get(run.model) ?? 0) + 1)\n    const terminalOutcome = run.terminalOutcome\n    terminalOutcomes[terminalOutcome] += 1\n    const modelCalls = nonNegativeCountRaw(run, 'llm_span_count')\n    if (modelCalls !== undefined) {\n      modelCallEvents += modelCalls\n      modelCallReportingRuns += 1\n    }\n    const usage = run.tokenUsage\n    if (\n      (modelCalls ?? 0) > 0 ||\n      usage.input > 0 ||\n      usage.output > 0 ||\n      (usage.cached ?? 0) > 0 ||\n      (usage.cacheWrite ?? 0) > 0\n    ) {\n      modelCallRuns += 1\n    }\n    const errorEvents = reportedExecutionErrorEvents(run)\n    if (errorEvents !== undefined) {\n      executionErrorEvents += errorEvents\n      errorReportingRuns += 1\n      if (errorEvents > 0) {\n        executionErrorRuns += 1\n        errorsByTerminalOutcome[terminalOutcome].withErrors += 1\n      } else errorsByTerminalOutcome[terminalOutcome].withoutErrors += 1\n    } else errorsByTerminalOutcome[terminalOutcome].unreported += 1\n    const reportedErrorSpans = nonNegativeCountRaw(run, 'error_span_count')\n    if (reportedErrorSpans !== undefined) {\n      errorSpanEvents += reportedErrorSpans\n      errorSpanReportingRuns += 1\n    }\n  }\n\n  return {\n    durationMs: distributionOf(\n      runs.map((run) => run.wallMs),\n      bins,\n    ),\n    queueMs: distributionOf(\n      runs.filter((run) => run.queueMs !== undefined).map((run) => run.queueMs!),\n      bins,\n    ),\n    tokenUsage: summarizeTokenUsage(\n      runs.map((run) => run.tokenUsage),\n      bins,\n    ),\n    aggregateUsage: {\n      runs: aggregateRows.length,\n      tokenUsage: summarizeTokenUsage(\n        aggregateRows.map((row) => row.usage),\n        bins,\n      ),\n      costUsd: distributionOf(aggregateCosts, bins),\n      totalCostUsd: aggregateCosts.reduce((total, value) => total + value, 0),\n    },\n    models: [...modelCounts.entries()]\n      .map(([model, count]) => ({ model, runs: count }))\n      .sort((left, right) => right.runs - left.runs || left.model.localeCompare(right.model)),\n    modelCalls: {\n      runs: modelCallRuns,\n      events: modelCallEvents,\n      reportingRuns: modelCallReportingRuns,\n    },\n    executionErrors: {\n      runs: executionErrorRuns,\n      fraction: errorReportingRuns > 0 ? executionErrorRuns / errorReportingRuns : null,\n      events: executionErrorEvents,\n      reportingRuns: errorReportingRuns,\n      errorSpanEvents,\n      errorSpanReportingRuns,\n      byTerminalOutcome: errorsByTerminalOutcome,\n    },\n    terminalOutcomes,\n  }\n}\n\nfunction reportedExecutionErrorEvents(run: RunRecord): number | undefined {\n  return nonNegativeCountRaw(run, 'execution_error_count')\n}\n\nfunction nonNegativeCountRaw(run: RunRecord, key: string): number | undefined {\n  const value = finiteRaw(run, key)\n  return value !== undefined && Number.isInteger(value) && value >= 0 ? value : undefined\n}\n\nfunction summarizeTokenUsage(usages: RunTokenUsage[], bins: number): TokenUsageInsight {\n  const reasoning = usages.flatMap((usage) =>\n    usage.reasoning !== undefined ? [usage.reasoning] : [],\n  )\n  const cached = usages.flatMap((usage) => (usage.cached !== undefined ? [usage.cached] : []))\n  const cacheWrite = usages.flatMap((usage) =>\n    usage.cacheWrite !== undefined ? [usage.cacheWrite] : [],\n  )\n  return {\n    input: distributionOf(\n      usages.map((usage) => usage.input),\n      bins,\n    ),\n    output: distributionOf(\n      usages.map((usage) => usage.output),\n      bins,\n    ),\n    reasoning: distributionOf(reasoning, bins),\n    cached: distributionOf(cached, bins),\n    cacheWrite: distributionOf(cacheWrite, bins),\n    totals: {\n      input: usages.reduce((total, usage) => total + usage.input, 0),\n      output: usages.reduce((total, usage) => total + usage.output, 0),\n      reasoning: reasoning.reduce((total, value) => total + value, 0),\n      cached: cached.reduce((total, value) => total + value, 0),\n      cacheWrite: cacheWrite.reduce((total, value) => total + value, 0),\n    },\n  }\n}\n\nfunction aggregateTokenUsage(run: RunRecord): RunTokenUsage | undefined {\n  const input = finiteRaw(run, 'aggregate_prompt_tokens')\n  const output = finiteRaw(run, 'aggregate_completion_tokens')\n  const reasoning = finiteRaw(run, 'aggregate_reasoning_tokens')\n  const cached = finiteRaw(run, 'aggregate_cached_tokens')\n  const cacheWrite = finiteRaw(run, 'aggregate_cache_write_tokens')\n  if (\n    input === undefined &&\n    output === undefined &&\n    reasoning === undefined &&\n    cached === undefined &&\n    cacheWrite === undefined\n  )\n    return undefined\n  return {\n    input: input ?? 0,\n    output: output ?? 0,\n    ...(reasoning !== undefined ? { reasoning } : {}),\n    ...(cached !== undefined ? { cached } : {}),\n    ...(cacheWrite !== undefined ? { cacheWrite } : {}),\n  }\n}\n\nfunction finiteRaw(run: RunRecord, key: string): number | undefined {\n  const value = run.outcome.raw[key]\n  return typeof value === 'number' && Number.isFinite(value) && value >= 0 ? value : undefined\n}\n\nfunction summarizeCostProvenance(runs: RunRecord[]): CostProvenanceSummary {\n  const summary: CostProvenanceSummary = {\n    observed: { n: 0, totalUsd: 0 },\n    estimated: { n: 0, totalUsd: 0 },\n    uncaptured: { n: 0 },\n    knownFraction: 0,\n  }\n  for (const run of runs) {\n    const cost = run.costProvenance\n    if (cost.kind === 'uncaptured') {\n      summary.uncaptured.n += 1\n    } else {\n      summary[cost.kind].n += 1\n      summary[cost.kind].totalUsd += cost.usd\n    }\n  }\n  const known = summary.observed.n + summary.estimated.n\n  summary.knownFraction = runs.length > 0 ? known / runs.length : 0\n  return summary\n}\n\nfunction diagnoseCostCoverage(runs: RunRecord[], provenance: CostProvenanceSummary): string {\n  const uncaptured = provenance.uncaptured.n\n  const known = provenance.observed.n + provenance.estimated.n\n  if (uncaptured === runs.length) {\n    return `USD cost uncaptured for all ${runs.length} runs — no observed or estimated USD values; token and wall-time metrics remain available.`\n  }\n  return `USD cost uncaptured for ${uncaptured}/${runs.length} runs; excluded those rows from cost statistics (${known}/${runs.length} retained: ${provenance.observed.n} observed, ${provenance.estimated.n} estimated).`\n}\n\n/**\n * Model-free task-failure tally.\n *\n * Explicit non-success classes are task-failure evidence.\n * A low task score without a class is counted as `unknown`.\n */\nfunction computeFailureClasses(\n  runs: RunRecord[],\n  split: 'search' | 'holdout',\n): FailureClassTally[] | undefined {\n  const counts = new Map<FailureClass, number>()\n  for (const r of runs) {\n    if (!isTaskFailure(r, split)) continue\n    const key =\n      r.failureClass !== undefined && r.failureClass !== 'success' ? r.failureClass : 'unknown'\n    counts.set(key, (counts.get(key) ?? 0) + 1)\n  }\n  if (counts.size === 0) return undefined\n  const n = runs.length\n  return [...counts.entries()]\n    .map(([failureClass, count]) => ({\n      failureClass,\n      count,\n      share: n > 0 ? count / n : 0,\n    }))\n    .sort((a, b) => b.count - a.count || a.failureClass.localeCompare(b.failureClass))\n}\n\n// ── Prior-period comparison ─────────────────────────────────────────\n\n/** Direction of the metric — does \"higher current\" mean better or worse?\n *  Composite + judge dimensions: higher is better. Cost + duration: lower\n *  is better. The recommendations engine flips the sign before judging\n *  regressed vs improved. */\ntype MetricDirection = 'higher-is-better' | 'lower-is-better'\n\nfunction computePriorPeriodComparison(\n  current: RunRecord[],\n  baseline: RunRecord[],\n  split: 'search' | 'holdout',\n  windowLabel: string | undefined,\n): PriorPeriodComparison | undefined {\n  if (current.length === 0 || baseline.length === 0) return undefined\n\n  const metrics: Record<string, MetricDelta> = {}\n  const directions: Record<string, MetricDirection> = {}\n\n  const compositeCurrent = current\n    .map((r) => compositeOf(r, split))\n    .filter(Number.isFinite) as number[]\n  const compositeBaseline = baseline\n    .map((r) => compositeOf(r, split))\n    .filter(Number.isFinite) as number[]\n  if (compositeCurrent.length > 0 && compositeBaseline.length > 0) {\n    metrics.composite = welchCompare(compositeBaseline, compositeCurrent)\n    directions.composite = 'higher-is-better'\n  }\n\n  const costCurrent = knownCostValues(current)\n  const costBaseline = knownCostValues(baseline)\n  if (costCurrent.length > 0 && costBaseline.length > 0) {\n    metrics.cost = welchCompare(costBaseline, costCurrent)\n    directions.cost = 'lower-is-better'\n  }\n\n  const durCurrent = current.map((r) => r.wallMs).filter(Number.isFinite)\n  const durBaseline = baseline.map((r) => r.wallMs).filter(Number.isFinite)\n  if (durCurrent.length > 0 && durBaseline.length > 0) {\n    metrics.duration = welchCompare(durBaseline, durCurrent)\n    directions.duration = 'lower-is-better'\n  }\n\n  const tokCurrent = current\n    .map((r) => (r.tokenUsage.input ?? 0) + (r.tokenUsage.output ?? 0))\n    .filter(Number.isFinite)\n  const tokBaseline = baseline\n    .map((r) => (r.tokenUsage.input ?? 0) + (r.tokenUsage.output ?? 0))\n    .filter(Number.isFinite)\n  if (tokCurrent.length > 0 && tokBaseline.length > 0) {\n    metrics.tokenUsage = welchCompare(tokBaseline, tokCurrent)\n    directions.tokenUsage = 'lower-is-better'\n  }\n\n  // Per-dimension judge comparisons — only for dimensions present in BOTH\n  // windows. We use perDimMean since per-judge nesting is finicky for\n  // two-sample comparisons across different judge configurations.\n  const dimsCurrent = collectPerDimension(current)\n  const dimsBaseline = collectPerDimension(baseline)\n  for (const dim of Object.keys(dimsCurrent)) {\n    const b = dimsBaseline[dim]\n    const c = dimsCurrent[dim]\n    if (!b || b.length === 0 || !c || c.length === 0) continue\n    metrics[`dim.${dim}`] = welchCompare(b, c)\n    directions[`dim.${dim}`] = 'higher-is-better'\n  }\n\n  const regressedMetrics: string[] = []\n  const improvedMetrics: string[] = []\n  const inconclusiveMetrics: string[] = []\n  for (const [name, delta] of Object.entries(metrics)) {\n    if (delta.status !== 'ok') {\n      inconclusiveMetrics.push(name)\n      continue\n    }\n    if (!delta.significant) continue\n    const dir = directions[name] ?? 'higher-is-better'\n    const better = dir === 'higher-is-better' ? delta.delta > 0 : delta.delta < 0\n    if (better) improvedMetrics.push(name)\n    else regressedMetrics.push(name)\n  }\n\n  return {\n    baselineN: baseline.length,\n    currentN: current.length,\n    ...(windowLabel ? { windowLabel } : {}),\n    metrics,\n    regressedMetrics,\n    improvedMetrics,\n    inconclusiveMetrics,\n  }\n}\n\nfunction knownCostValues(runs: RunRecord[]): number[] {\n  return runs\n    .filter((run) => run.costProvenance.kind !== 'uncaptured')\n    .map((run) => run.costUsd)\n    .filter(isFiniteNumber)\n}\n\nfunction isFiniteNumber(value: unknown): value is number {\n  return typeof value === 'number' && Number.isFinite(value)\n}\n\n/** Collect per-dimension values across runs (from outcome.judgeScores.perDimMean). */\nfunction collectPerDimension(runs: RunRecord[]): Record<string, number[]> {\n  const out: Record<string, number[]> = {}\n  for (const r of runs) {\n    const perDim = r.outcome.judgeScores?.perDimMean\n    if (!perDim) continue\n    for (const [dim, value] of Object.entries(perDim)) {\n      if (!Number.isFinite(value)) continue\n      if (!out[dim]) out[dim] = []\n      out[dim].push(value as number)\n    }\n  }\n  return out\n}\n\n/** Adapt the shared two-sample Welch result to the report contract. */\nfunction welchCompare(baseline: number[], current: number[]): MetricDelta {\n  const result = welchsTTest(baseline, current)\n  const base = {\n    current: result.meanB,\n    baseline: result.meanA,\n    delta: result.delta,\n    baselineN: baseline.length,\n    currentN: current.length,\n  }\n  if (result.status !== 'ok') {\n    return {\n      ...base,\n      status: result.status,\n      ci95: null,\n      pValue: null,\n      cohensD: null,\n      significant: false,\n    }\n  }\n  return {\n    ...base,\n    status: 'ok',\n    ci95: result.ci95,\n    pValue: result.p,\n    cohensD: result.cohensD,\n    significant: result.p < 0.05 && Math.abs(result.cohensD) >= 0.2,\n  }\n}\n\n// ── Composite + split selection ─────────────────────────────────────\n\nfunction resolveSplit(\n  runs: RunRecord[],\n  pref: 'search' | 'holdout' | 'auto',\n): 'search' | 'holdout' {\n  if (pref !== 'auto') return pref\n  const hasHoldout = runs.some((r) => Number.isFinite(observedSplitScore(r, 'holdout')))\n  return hasHoldout ? 'holdout' : 'search'\n}\n\n/**\n * RAW (`observedSplitScore`): `analyzeRuns` describes what a set of runs\n * reported, and every downstream reader of this composite — distributions,\n * per-candidate summaries, the reward-hacking correlation — needs the ungated\n * number to see an inflated run at all.\n */\nfunction compositeOf(run: RunRecord, split: 'search' | 'holdout'): number {\n  // Split-exact, no cross-split fallthrough: answering \"what did this run\n  // score on the split I am summarising\" with the other split's number\n  // silently mixes populations.\n  const score = observedSplitScore(run, split)\n  return Number.isFinite(score) ? (score as number) : Number.NaN\n}\n\n// ── Distribution helpers ────────────────────────────────────────────\n\nfunction distributionOf(\n  values: number[],\n  bins: number,\n  withIds?: Array<{ runId: string; score: number }>,\n): ScalarDistribution {\n  if (values.length === 0) {\n    return {\n      n: 0,\n      mean: null,\n      p50: null,\n      p95: null,\n      stddev: null,\n      min: null,\n      max: null,\n      histogram: [],\n    }\n  }\n  const sorted = [...values].sort((a, b) => a - b)\n  const n = sorted.length\n  const mean = sorted.reduce((s, v) => s + v, 0) / n\n  const variance = sorted.reduce((s, v) => s + (v - mean) ** 2, 0) / n\n  const stddev = Math.sqrt(variance)\n  const tailRuns = withIds\n    ? [...withIds].sort((a, b) => a.score - b.score).slice(0, Math.min(5, withIds.length))\n    : undefined\n  return {\n    n,\n    mean,\n    p50: percentile(sorted, 0.5),\n    p95: percentile(sorted, 0.95),\n    stddev,\n    min: sorted[0]!,\n    max: sorted[n - 1]!,\n    histogram: histogram(sorted, bins),\n    ...(tailRuns ? { tailRuns } : {}),\n  }\n}\n\nfunction percentile(sorted: number[], q: number): number {\n  if (sorted.length === 0) return 0\n  if (sorted.length === 1) return sorted[0]!\n  const idx = (sorted.length - 1) * q\n  const lo = Math.floor(idx)\n  const hi = Math.ceil(idx)\n  if (lo === hi) return sorted[lo]!\n  const w = idx - lo\n  return sorted[lo]! * (1 - w) + sorted[hi]! * w\n}\n\n/** Even-width histogram over the value range. Returns inclusive-lo /\n *  exclusive-hi bins (closed on right for the last bin) compatible with\n *  the substrate's `GainDistributionBin` shape. */\nfunction histogram(sorted: number[], bins: number): ScalarDistribution['histogram'] {\n  if (sorted.length === 0 || bins < 1) return []\n  const min = sorted[0]!\n  const max = sorted[sorted.length - 1]!\n  if (min === max) return [{ lo: min, hi: max, count: sorted.length }]\n  const width = (max - min) / bins\n  const out: ScalarDistribution['histogram'] = []\n  for (let i = 0; i < bins; i++) {\n    const lo = min + i * width\n    const hi = i === bins - 1 ? max : lo + width\n    out.push({ lo, hi, count: 0 })\n  }\n  for (const v of sorted) {\n    const idx = Math.min(bins - 1, Math.floor((v - min) / width))\n    out[idx]!.count++\n  }\n  return out\n}\n\nfunction computePerDimension(runs: RunRecord[], bins: number): Record<string, ScalarDistribution> {\n  // JudgeScoresRecord pre-aggregates `perDimMean` (mean across judges per\n  // dimension). We collect those means across runs to produce a per-dim\n  // distribution at the corpus level. Consumers who want per-judge\n  // dimension values reach into `perJudge[judgeId][dim]` themselves.\n  const byDim = new Map<string, number[]>()\n  for (const run of runs) {\n    const scores = run.outcome.judgeScores\n    if (!scores) continue\n    for (const [dim, value] of Object.entries(scores.perDimMean ?? {})) {\n      if (!Number.isFinite(value)) continue\n      const arr = byDim.get(dim) ?? []\n      arr.push(value)\n      byDim.set(dim, arr)\n    }\n  }\n  const out: Record<string, ScalarDistribution> = {}\n  for (const [dim, values] of byDim) out[dim] = distributionOf(values, bins)\n  return out\n}\n\n// ── Judge insights ──────────────────────────────────────────────────\n\nfunction computeJudgeInsights(runs: RunRecord[]): Record<string, JudgeInsight> {\n  // Each judge's per-run mean is the average of its per-dimension scores\n  // for that run. We aggregate those means across all runs each judge\n  // scored — giving consumers a \"this judge's typical verdict\" reading.\n  const out: Record<string, JudgeInsight> = {}\n  const byJudge = new Map<string, number[]>()\n  for (const run of runs) {\n    const scores = run.outcome.judgeScores\n    if (!scores?.perJudge) continue\n    for (const [judgeId, dims] of Object.entries(scores.perJudge)) {\n      const dimValues = Object.values(dims).filter(Number.isFinite) as number[]\n      if (dimValues.length === 0) continue\n      const judgeMean = dimValues.reduce((s, v) => s + v, 0) / dimValues.length\n      const arr = byJudge.get(judgeId) ?? []\n      arr.push(judgeMean)\n      byJudge.set(judgeId, arr)\n    }\n  }\n  for (const [judgeId, values] of byJudge) {\n    out[judgeId] = {\n      n: values.length,\n      meanScore: values.reduce((s, v) => s + v, 0) / values.length,\n    }\n  }\n  return out\n}\n\n// ── Inter-rater agreement ───────────────────────────────────────────\n\nfunction computeInterRater(\n  ratings: Array<{ runId: string; rater: string; score: number }>,\n): InterRaterInsight | undefined {\n  const byRun = new Map<string, Array<{ rater: string; score: number }>>()\n  for (const r of ratings) {\n    if (!Number.isFinite(r.score)) continue\n    const list = byRun.get(r.runId) ?? []\n    list.push({ rater: r.rater, score: r.score })\n    byRun.set(r.runId, list)\n  }\n  const raters = new Set(ratings.map((r) => r.rater))\n  const jointlyRated: string[] = []\n  for (const [runId, ratersForRun] of byRun) {\n    const seen = new Set(ratersForRun.map((r) => r.rater))\n    let all = true\n    for (const r of raters) if (!seen.has(r)) all = false\n    if (all) jointlyRated.push(runId)\n  }\n  if (raters.size < 2 || jointlyRated.length === 0) return undefined\n\n  const raterList = [...raters].sort()\n  const perPair: Record<string, number> = {}\n  for (let i = 0; i < raterList.length; i++) {\n    for (let j = i + 1; j < raterList.length; j++) {\n      const a = raterList[i]!\n      const b = raterList[j]!\n      const aScores: number[] = []\n      const bScores: number[] = []\n      for (const runId of jointlyRated) {\n        const ratersForRun = byRun.get(runId)!\n        const sa = ratersForRun.find((r) => r.rater === a)?.score\n        const sb = ratersForRun.find((r) => r.rater === b)?.score\n        if (sa !== undefined && sb !== undefined) {\n          aScores.push(sa)\n          bScores.push(sb)\n        }\n      }\n      const agreement = continuousAgreement(\n        aScores.map((score, index) => [score, bScores[index]!]),\n        { bootstrap: 0 },\n      )\n      perPair[`${a}::${b}`] = agreement.weightedKappa\n    }\n  }\n  const matrix = jointlyRated.map((runId) => {\n    const ratingsByRater = new Map(byRun.get(runId)!.map((rating) => [rating.rater, rating.score]))\n    return raterList.map((rater) => ratingsByRater.get(rater)!)\n  })\n  const agreement = continuousAgreement(matrix, { bootstrap: 0 })\n\n  const disagreementCases = jointlyRated\n    .map((runId) => {\n      const ratersForRun = byRun.get(runId)!\n      const scores = ratersForRun.map((r) => r.score)\n      const range = Math.max(...scores) - Math.min(...scores)\n      return { runId, ratings: ratersForRun, range }\n    })\n    .sort((a, b) => b.range - a.range)\n    .slice(0, 20)\n\n  return {\n    raters: raters.size,\n    jointlyRated: jointlyRated.length,\n    kappa: Number.isFinite(agreement.weightedKappa) ? agreement.weightedKappa : 0,\n    icc: agreement.icc,\n    pearson: agreement.pearson,\n    spearman: agreement.spearman,\n    perPair,\n    disagreementCases,\n  }\n}\n\n// ── Lift ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────\n\nfunction computeLift(\n  runs: RunRecord[],\n  baselineId: string | undefined,\n  candidateId: string | undefined,\n  split: 'search' | 'holdout',\n  independentUnitByScenarioId?: ReadonlyMap<string, string>,\n): LiftInsight | undefined {\n  let bId = baselineId\n  let cId = candidateId\n  if (!bId || !cId) {\n    // Auto-detect: when exactly two distinct candidateIds appear, treat the\n    // lower-mean side as baseline.\n    const ids = [...new Set(runs.map((r) => r.candidateId))]\n    if (ids.length !== 2) return undefined\n    const [idA, idB] = ids as [string, string]\n    const scoresA = finiteCompositeScores(\n      runs.filter((run) => run.candidateId === idA),\n      split,\n    )\n    const scoresB = finiteCompositeScores(\n      runs.filter((run) => run.candidateId === idB),\n      split,\n    )\n    if (scoresA.length === 0 || scoresB.length === 0) return undefined\n    const meanA = mean(scoresA)\n    const meanB = mean(scoresB)\n    bId = meanA <= meanB ? idA : idB\n    cId = meanA <= meanB ? idB : idA\n  }\n\n  const baseline = runs.filter((r) => r.candidateId === bId)\n  const candidate = runs.filter((r) => r.candidateId === cId)\n  if (baseline.length === 0 || candidate.length === 0) return undefined\n\n  const scoredBaseline = baseline.filter((run) => Number.isFinite(compositeOf(run, split)))\n  const scoredCandidate = candidate.filter((run) => Number.isFinite(compositeOf(run, split)))\n  const pairing = pairRunRecords(scoredBaseline, scoredCandidate)\n  let pairedBaseline = pairing.pairs.map((pair) => compositeOf(pair.baseline, split))\n  let pairedCandidate = pairing.pairs.map((pair) => compositeOf(pair.treatment, split))\n  if (pairedBaseline.length === 0) return undefined\n  const grouped = independentUnitByScenarioId\n    ? aggregatePairedHoldout(\n        {\n          before: pairedBaseline,\n          after: pairedCandidate,\n          // Pairing is already fixed by experiment, scenario, and seed.\n          // The ordinal labels each matched observation for the shared reducer.\n          cellIds: pairing.pairs.map((pair, index) => `${pair.pairKey}:${index}`),\n        },\n        new Map(\n          pairing.pairs.map((pair) => [\n            pair.pairKey,\n            independentUnitByScenarioId.get(pair.baseline.scenarioId)!,\n          ]),\n        ),\n      )\n    : undefined\n  if (grouped) {\n    pairedBaseline = grouped.before\n    pairedCandidate = grouped.after\n  }\n  const reverseInferredArms =\n    grouped !== undefined &&\n    (!baselineId || !candidateId) &&\n    mean(pairedBaseline) > mean(pairedCandidate)\n  if (reverseInferredArms) [pairedBaseline, pairedCandidate] = [pairedCandidate, pairedBaseline]\n\n  const baselineMean = mean(pairedBaseline)\n  const candidateMean = mean(pairedCandidate)\n  const delta = candidateMean - baselineMean\n\n  const bootstrap = pairedBootstrap(pairedBaseline, pairedCandidate, {\n    confidence: 0.95,\n    resamples: 2000,\n    statistic: 'mean',\n  })\n  const tTest = pairedTTest(pairedBaseline, pairedCandidate)\n  const d = pairedCohensDz(pairedBaseline, pairedCandidate)\n  const mde = pairedMde({ nPaired: pairedBaseline.length, power: 0.8, alpha: 0.05 })\n  const requiredN =\n    d === null || d === 0\n      ? null\n      : requiredPairedSampleSize({\n          effect: Math.abs(d),\n          power: 0.8,\n          alpha: 0.05,\n        })\n\n  return {\n    baselineMean,\n    candidateMean,\n    delta,\n    ci95: [bootstrap.low, bootstrap.high],\n    pValue: tTest.p,\n    n: pairedBaseline.length,\n    ...(grouped ? { pairedRunN: pairing.pairs.length, independentUnitIds: grouped.unitIds } : {}),\n    minimumRequired: BOOTSTRAP_GATE_MIN_N,\n    decisionEligible: bootstrap.gateEligible,\n    unpairedBaseline: (reverseInferredArms ? pairing.unpairedTreatment : pairing.unpairedBaseline)\n      .length,\n    unpairedCandidate: (reverseInferredArms ? pairing.unpairedBaseline : pairing.unpairedTreatment)\n      .length,\n    cohensD: d,\n    mde,\n    requiredN,\n  }\n}\n\nfunction mean(arr: number[]): number {\n  return arr.length === 0 ? 0 : arr.reduce((s, v) => s + v, 0) / arr.length\n}\n\n// ── Failure clustering ──────────────────────────────────────────────\n\nasync function computeFailureClusters(\n  runs: RunRecord[],\n  analyst: AnalystRegistry,\n  split: 'search' | 'holdout',\n): Promise<FailureClusterInsight | undefined> {\n  const failed = runs.filter((run) => isTaskFailure(run, split))\n  if (failed.length === 0) return { clusters: [], totalFailures: 0 }\n\n  const clusters = new Map<string, { exemplars: string[]; runs: number }>()\n  const recordCluster = (key: string, runId: string) => {\n    const cluster = clusters.get(key) ?? { exemplars: [], runs: 0 }\n    cluster.runs += 1\n    if (cluster.exemplars.length < 5 && !cluster.exemplars.includes(runId)) {\n      cluster.exemplars.push(runId)\n    }\n    clusters.set(key, cluster)\n  }\n  for (const run of failed) {\n    try {\n      // AnalystRunInputs routes by field name: run-record analysts read\n      // `runRecord`. Any other shape makes every analyst skip with\n      // \"missing input\" and the clusters come back silently empty.\n      const result = await analyst.run(run.runId, { runRecord: run })\n      // One run can produce several findings in one cluster; count it once.\n      const keys = new Set(\n        result.findings.map(\n          (finding: AnalystFinding) => finding.area || finding.analyst_id || 'unclassified',\n        ),\n      )\n      for (const key of keys) recordCluster(key, run.runId)\n    } catch {\n      recordCluster('analyst-error', run.runId)\n    }\n  }\n  const clusterList = [...clusters.entries()].map(([id, c]) => ({\n    id,\n    name: id,\n    share: c.runs / failed.length,\n    exemplars: c.exemplars,\n  }))\n  clusterList.sort((a, b) => b.share - a.share)\n  return { clusters: clusterList, totalFailures: failed.length }\n}\n\nfunction finiteCompositeScores(runs: readonly RunRecord[], split: 'search' | 'holdout'): number[] {\n  return runs.map((run) => compositeOf(run, split)).filter(Number.isFinite)\n}\n\nfunction isTaskFailure(run: RunRecord, split: 'search' | 'holdout'): boolean {\n  if (run.failureClass !== undefined && run.failureClass !== 'success') return true\n  const score = compositeOf(run, split)\n  return Number.isFinite(score) && score < 0.5\n}\n\n// ── Contamination ──────────────────────────────────────────────────\n\nfunction computeContamination(\n  runs: RunRecord[],\n  canaries: DatasetScenario[],\n): InsightReport['contamination'] {\n  let leaks = 0\n  const details: Array<{ runId: string; canary: string; matched: string }> = []\n  for (const run of runs) {\n    const output = stringifyOutput(run)\n    if (!output) continue\n    const leaksHere = checkCanaries(output, canaries)\n    for (const leak of leaksHere) {\n      leaks++\n      details.push({ runId: run.runId, canary: leak.canary, matched: leak.evidence })\n    }\n  }\n  return { leaks, holdoutAuditPassed: leaks === 0, details }\n}\n\nfunction stringifyOutput(run: RunRecord): string | undefined {\n  // RunRecord doesn't fix where \"the agent's output\" lives — different\n  // consumers stash it differently. We probe the common shapes: the\n  // outcome.raw map (numeric only by design — unlikely to contain text),\n  // and any string-valued fields tucked under metadata via type casting.\n  // Consumers with bespoke shapes pass canaryScenarios only when they\n  // know their runs carry a stringifiable surface.\n  const metadata = (run as unknown as { metadata?: Record<string, unknown> }).metadata\n  if (typeof metadata?.output === 'string') return metadata.output\n  if (typeof metadata?.text === 'string') return metadata.text\n  return undefined\n}\n\n// ── Outcome correlation + linear reward model ──────────────────────\n\nfunction computeOutcomeCorrelation(\n  runs: RunRecord[],\n  outcome: { metric: string; valueByRunId: Record<string, number> },\n  split: 'search' | 'holdout',\n): OutcomeCorrelationInsight | undefined {\n  const xs: number[] = []\n  const ys: number[] = []\n  for (const run of runs) {\n    const y = outcome.valueByRunId[run.runId]\n    if (y === undefined || !Number.isFinite(y)) continue\n    const x = compositeOf(run, split)\n    if (!Number.isFinite(x)) continue\n    xs.push(x)\n    ys.push(y)\n  }\n  if (xs.length < 3) return undefined\n\n  const p = pearsonR(xs, ys)\n  const s = spearmanR(xs, ys)\n  const meanX = mean(xs)\n  const meanY = mean(ys)\n  let num = 0\n  let denom = 0\n  for (let i = 0; i < xs.length; i++) {\n    num += (xs[i]! - meanX) * (ys[i]! - meanY)\n    denom += (xs[i]! - meanX) ** 2\n  }\n  const slope = denom === 0 ? 0 : num / denom\n  const intercept = meanY - slope * meanX\n  const ssTot = ys.reduce((a, y) => a + (y - meanY) ** 2, 0)\n  const ssRes = ys.reduce((a, y, i) => a + (y - (intercept + slope * xs[i]!)) ** 2, 0)\n  const r2 = ssTot === 0 ? 0 : 1 - ssRes / ssTot\n\n  return {\n    metric: outcome.metric,\n    n: xs.length,\n    pearson: p,\n    spearman: s,\n    rewardModel: { intercept, slope, r2 },\n  }\n}\n\n// ── Release confidence scorecard ───────────────────────────────────\n\nfunction buildReleaseScorecard(\n  composite: ScalarDistribution,\n  lift: LiftInsight | undefined,\n  contamination: InsightReport['contamination'],\n): InsightReport['release'] {\n  // Synthesise a minimal scorecard from the rolled-up signal. The\n  // substrate's `evaluateReleaseConfidence` primitive consumes a richer\n  // input shape that callers can produce by wiring SLO definitions; the\n  // shape here is the contract `selfImprove`/`analyzeRuns` consumers\n  // receive automatically. They can call `evaluateReleaseConfidence`\n  // directly when they want SLO-based axis evaluation.\n  const axes: InsightReport['release']['axes'] = []\n  const liftPass =\n    lift === undefined\n      ? ('not_evaluated' as const)\n      : !lift.decisionEligible\n        ? ('not_evaluated' as const)\n        : lift.ci95[0] > 0 && !zeroWidth(lift.ci95)\n          ? ('pass' as const)\n          : lift.delta > 0\n            ? ('warn' as const)\n            : ('fail' as const)\n  axes.push({\n    name: 'quality-lift',\n    status: liftPass,\n    detail: lift\n      ? `delta=${lift.delta.toFixed(3)}, CI95=[${lift.ci95[0].toFixed(3)}, ${lift.ci95[1].toFixed(3)}], n=${lift.n}${lift.decisionEligible ? '' : ` (descriptive only; ${lift.minimumRequired} required)`}`\n      : 'no baseline/candidate pair available',\n  })\n  const contamPass =\n    contamination === undefined\n      ? ('not_evaluated' as const)\n      : contamination.leaks === 0\n        ? ('pass' as const)\n        : ('fail' as const)\n  axes.push({\n    name: 'contamination',\n    status: contamPass,\n    detail: contamination ? `${contamination.leaks} canary leak(s)` : 'no canaries supplied',\n  })\n  axes.push(\n    composite.n === 0\n      ? {\n          name: 'composite-distribution',\n          status: 'not_evaluated',\n          detail: 'no task-quality scores available',\n        }\n      : {\n          name: 'composite-distribution',\n          status:\n            composite.mean !== null && composite.mean >= 0.5\n              ? 'pass'\n              : composite.mean !== null && composite.mean >= 0.3\n                ? 'warn'\n                : 'fail',\n          detail:\n            composite.mean === null || composite.p50 === null || composite.p95 === null\n              ? 'task-quality distribution is internally incomplete'\n              : `mean=${composite.mean.toFixed(3)}, p50=${composite.p50.toFixed(3)}, p95=${composite.p95.toFixed(3)} over n=${composite.n}`,\n        },\n  )\n  const status = axes.some((a) => a.status === 'fail')\n    ? 'fail'\n    : axes.some((a) => a.status === 'warn' || a.status === 'not_evaluated')\n      ? 'warn'\n      : 'pass'\n  return {\n    status,\n    axes,\n    issues: [],\n  }\n}\n\n// ── Recommendations engine ─────────────────────────────────────────\n\ninterface RecommendationContext {\n  composite: ScalarDistribution\n  judges: Record<string, JudgeInsight>\n  interRater?: InterRaterInsight\n  lift?: LiftInsight\n  failureClusters?: FailureClusterInsight\n  failureClasses?: FailureClassTally[]\n  contamination?: InsightReport['contamination']\n  outcomeCorrelation?: OutcomeCorrelationInsight\n  priorPeriodComparison?: PriorPeriodComparison\n  threshold: number\n}\n\nfunction buildRecommendations(ctx: RecommendationContext): Recommendation[] {\n  const out: Recommendation[] = []\n\n  // Prior-period regressions — highest customer-impact signal when present.\n  // \"Did my last change help?\" with a falsifiable answer.\n  if (ctx.priorPeriodComparison) {\n    const ppc = ctx.priorPeriodComparison\n    const label = ppc.windowLabel ?? 'baseline period'\n    for (const name of ppc.regressedMetrics) {\n      const d = ppc.metrics[name]\n      if (d?.status !== 'ok') continue\n      out.push({\n        priority: 'critical',\n        kind: 'investigate',\n        title: `${name} regressed from ${d.baseline.toFixed(3)} → ${d.current.toFixed(3)} vs ${label}`,\n        detail: `Welch CI95 = [${d.ci95[0].toFixed(3)}, ${d.ci95[1].toFixed(3)}], p=${d.pValue.toFixed(4)}, Cohen's d=${d.cohensD.toFixed(2)} (n_current=${d.currentN}, n_baseline=${d.baselineN}). The regression is statistically significant at p<0.05 with at-least-small effect size.`,\n        evidencePath: `priorPeriodComparison.metrics.${name}`,\n      })\n    }\n    for (const name of ppc.improvedMetrics) {\n      const d = ppc.metrics[name]\n      if (d?.status !== 'ok') continue\n      out.push({\n        priority: 'low',\n        kind: 'ship',\n        title: `${name} improved from ${d.baseline.toFixed(3)} → ${d.current.toFixed(3)} vs ${label}`,\n        detail: `Welch CI95 = [${d.ci95[0].toFixed(3)}, ${d.ci95[1].toFixed(3)}], p=${d.pValue.toFixed(4)}, Cohen's d=${d.cohensD.toFixed(2)} (n_current=${d.currentN}, n_baseline=${d.baselineN}). Statistically significant improvement worth flagging.`,\n        evidencePath: `priorPeriodComparison.metrics.${name}`,\n      })\n    }\n    for (const name of ppc.inconclusiveMetrics) {\n      const d = ppc.metrics[name]\n      if (!d || d.status === 'ok' || d.delta === 0) continue\n      const reason =\n        d.status === 'zero-variance'\n          ? 'both periods have zero observed variance'\n          : 'one or both periods have fewer than two observations'\n      out.push({\n        priority: 'high',\n        kind: 'investigate',\n        title: `${name} changed from ${d.baseline.toFixed(3)} → ${d.current.toFixed(3)} vs ${label}; inference unavailable`,\n        detail: `Observed delta ${d.delta.toFixed(3)} across n_current=${d.currentN} and n_baseline=${d.baselineN}, but ${reason}. The report does not fabricate a p-value, confidence interval, or effect size; inspect independence and data capture before acting.`,\n        evidencePath: `priorPeriodComparison.metrics.${name}`,\n      })\n    }\n  }\n\n  // Composite-distribution branch. Fires when the overall quality signal is\n  // poor regardless of lift / contamination / clusters — the customer needs\n  // to know they have a problem AND which specific runs to inspect.\n  if (\n    ctx.composite.n > 0 &&\n    ctx.composite.mean !== null &&\n    ctx.composite.p50 !== null &&\n    ctx.composite.p95 !== null\n  ) {\n    if (ctx.composite.mean < 0.3) {\n      const tail = ctx.composite.tailRuns ?? []\n      const names = tail\n        .slice(0, 5)\n        .map((t) => `${t.runId}=${t.score.toFixed(3)}`)\n        .join(', ')\n      out.push({\n        priority: 'critical',\n        kind: 'investigate',\n        title: `Composite mean ${ctx.composite.mean.toFixed(3)} is below the 0.3 floor — the agent is broken on this corpus`,\n        detail:\n          tail.length > 0\n            ? `Worst ${tail.length} run${tail.length === 1 ? '' : 's'} to inspect first: ${names}. Histogram p50=${ctx.composite.p50.toFixed(3)}, p95=${ctx.composite.p95.toFixed(3)}.`\n            : `Histogram p50=${ctx.composite.p50.toFixed(3)}, p95=${ctx.composite.p95.toFixed(3)}.`,\n        evidencePath: 'composite.tailRuns',\n      })\n    } else if (ctx.composite.mean < 0.5) {\n      const tail = ctx.composite.tailRuns ?? []\n      const names = tail\n        .slice(0, 3)\n        .map((t) => `${t.runId}=${t.score.toFixed(3)}`)\n        .join(', ')\n      out.push({\n        priority: 'high',\n        kind: 'investigate',\n        title: `Composite mean ${ctx.composite.mean.toFixed(3)} is below 0.5 — investigate the lower tail before claiming the agent is healthy`,\n        detail:\n          tail.length > 0\n            ? `Worst ${tail.length} run${tail.length === 1 ? '' : 's'}: ${names}. Histogram p50=${ctx.composite.p50.toFixed(3)}, p95=${ctx.composite.p95.toFixed(3)}.`\n            : `Histogram p50=${ctx.composite.p50.toFixed(3)}, p95=${ctx.composite.p95.toFixed(3)}.`,\n        evidencePath: 'composite.tailRuns',\n      })\n    }\n  }\n\n  // A healthy-looking mean can hide a group of failed tasks sharing one\n  // producer-reported cause. This path does not require an analyst.\n  if (ctx.failureClasses && ctx.failureClasses.length > 0) {\n    const top = ctx.failureClasses[0]!\n    if (top.count >= 3 && top.share >= 0.15) {\n      out.push({\n        priority: top.share >= 0.25 ? 'high' : 'medium',\n        kind: 'investigate',\n        title: `'${top.failureClass}' is the dominant failure class — ${top.count} runs (${(top.share * 100).toFixed(0)}% of the corpus)`,\n        detail: `The mean composite can look acceptable while one failure class dominates the lower tail. ${top.count} of ${ctx.composite.n} runs failed with '${top.failureClass}'${ctx.failureClasses.length > 1 ? ` (next: '${ctx.failureClasses[1]!.failureClass}' ×${ctx.failureClasses[1]!.count})` : ''}. Fix this cause first.`,\n        evidencePath: 'failureClasses',\n      })\n    }\n  }\n\n  // Missing-judges branch. The report can't surface per-dimension or\n  // calibration signal when `outcome.judgeScores` is empty across the\n  // corpus. Tell the customer how to enrich.\n  if (Object.keys(ctx.judges).length === 0 && ctx.composite.n > 0) {\n    out.push({\n      priority: 'medium',\n      kind: 'expand-corpus',\n      title: 'No judge scores recorded — per-dimension + calibration insights unavailable',\n      detail:\n        'Records have no `outcome.judgeScores`. To unlock perDimension, judges, and calibration, attach a Judge run during your eval pass and populate `outcome.judgeScores.perJudge[judgeName][dimension] = score`. See `docs/insight-report.md` for the expected shape.',\n      evidencePath: 'judges',\n    })\n  }\n\n  if (ctx.lift) {\n    if (!ctx.lift.decisionEligible) {\n      out.push({\n        priority: 'high',\n        kind: 'expand-corpus',\n        title: `Inconclusive — ${ctx.lift.n} paired runs; ${ctx.lift.minimumRequired} required`,\n        detail: `The bootstrap interval is descriptive below ${ctx.lift.minimumRequired} paired observations and cannot support a ship decision.`,\n        evidencePath: 'lift',\n      })\n    } else {\n      const pairedEffect =\n        ctx.lift.cohensD === null ? 'undefined (zero delta variance)' : ctx.lift.cohensD.toFixed(2)\n      const pairedP =\n        ctx.lift.pValue === null ? 'undefined (zero delta variance)' : ctx.lift.pValue.toFixed(4)\n      const requiredRuns =\n        ctx.lift.requiredN === null ? 'not estimable' : `~${ctx.lift.requiredN} paired runs`\n      // A ZERO-WIDTH interval never reads as \"ship\": n identical paired deltas\n      // make every resample identical, so `[g, g]` clears any threshold below g\n      // and `[0, 0]` clears any negative `decisionThreshold`, on no spread at\n      // all. It falls through to the inconclusive/hold arms, which is where a\n      // sample carrying no information about its own error belongs.\n      const decisive = !zeroWidth(ctx.lift.ci95) && ctx.lift.ci95[0] > ctx.threshold\n      const inconclusive = ctx.lift.ci95[0] <= ctx.threshold && ctx.lift.ci95[1] > ctx.threshold\n      if (decisive) {\n        out.push({\n          priority: 'critical',\n          kind: 'ship',\n          title: `Ship — lift ${ctx.lift.delta.toFixed(3)} (95% CI ${ctx.lift.ci95[0].toFixed(3)}..${ctx.lift.ci95[1].toFixed(3)})`,\n          detail: `Holdout lift exceeds threshold ${ctx.threshold} with 95% bootstrap confidence (n=${ctx.lift.n}, p=${pairedP}, paired d=${pairedEffect}).`,\n          evidencePath: 'lift',\n        })\n      } else if (inconclusive) {\n        out.push({\n          priority: 'high',\n          kind: 'expand-corpus',\n          title: `Inconclusive — required sample is ${requiredRuns} (have ${ctx.lift.n}) at current effect size`,\n          detail: `CI straddles threshold. Current MDE at 80% power is ${ctx.lift.mde.toFixed(3)}; observed delta is ${ctx.lift.delta.toFixed(3)}.`,\n          evidencePath: 'lift',\n        })\n      } else {\n        out.push({\n          priority: 'critical',\n          kind: 'hold',\n          title: `Hold — lift CI lower bound ${ctx.lift.ci95[0].toFixed(3)} is at or below threshold ${ctx.threshold}`,\n          detail: `Bootstrap CI provides no statistical evidence the candidate is better. Consider tightening the mutation or expanding the holdout.`,\n          evidencePath: 'lift',\n        })\n      }\n    }\n  }\n\n  if (ctx.contamination && ctx.contamination.leaks > 0) {\n    out.push({\n      priority: 'critical',\n      kind: 'fix',\n      title: `${ctx.contamination.leaks} canary leak${ctx.contamination.leaks === 1 ? '' : 's'} detected`,\n      detail: `Holdout integrity is compromised. The lift number is unreliable until you investigate.`,\n      evidencePath: 'contamination',\n    })\n  }\n\n  if (ctx.interRater && ctx.interRater.kappa < 0.5) {\n    out.push({\n      priority: 'high',\n      kind: 'recalibrate',\n      title: `Inter-rater weighted kappa ${ctx.interRater.kappa.toFixed(2)} is below 0.5`,\n      detail:\n        'Raters disagree on what good looks like. Review the largest disagreement cases and refine the rubric before automating these decisions.',\n      evidencePath: 'interRater',\n    })\n  }\n\n  if (ctx.failureClusters && ctx.failureClusters.clusters.length > 0) {\n    const top = ctx.failureClusters.clusters[0]!\n    out.push({\n      priority: 'high',\n      kind: 'investigate',\n      title: `Top failure cluster: ${top.name} (${(top.share * 100).toFixed(0)}% of failures)`,\n      detail: `${ctx.failureClusters.totalFailures} runs failed. The largest cluster groups ${top.exemplars.length} exemplars under '${top.name}'.`,\n      evidencePath: 'failureClusters.clusters[0]',\n    })\n  }\n\n  if (ctx.outcomeCorrelation && Math.abs(ctx.outcomeCorrelation.spearman) < 0.3) {\n    out.push({\n      priority: 'medium',\n      kind: 'recalibrate',\n      title: `Judge scores decoupled from ${ctx.outcomeCorrelation.metric} (Spearman ρ=${ctx.outcomeCorrelation.spearman.toFixed(2)})`,\n      detail: `Your judges score what they were trained to score, but it isn't predicting downstream ${ctx.outcomeCorrelation.metric}. Consider retraining the judge against ${ctx.outcomeCorrelation.metric} as the gold signal.`,\n      evidencePath: 'outcomeCorrelation',\n    })\n  }\n\n  return out\n}\n\n// ── Re-export pareto figure spec for hosted-side rendering ─────────\n\nexport type { ParetoFigureSpec 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