@tangle-network/agent-eval 0.180.0 → 0.182.0

package/dist/outcome-store-BXlkwMPR.js

@@ -0,0 +1,131 @@
+import { z } from "zod";
+//#region src/meta-eval/outcome-store.ts
+/** Deployment observations join to evaluation records through their runId. */
+const outcomeSchema = z.object({
+	runId: z.string().min(1),
+	capturedAt: z.number().finite(),
+	metrics: z.record(z.string(), z.number().finite()),
+	labels: z.record(z.string(), z.string()).optional(),
+	source: z.string().optional()
+}).passthrough();
+var InMemoryOutcomeStore = class {
+	items = [];
+	async append(outcome) {
+		this.items.push(structuredClone(outcomeSchema.parse(outcome)));
+	}
+	async forRun(runId) {
+		return this.list({ runIds: [runId] });
+	}
+	async list(filter = {}) {
+		return this.items.filter((outcome) => matches(outcome, filter)).map((outcome) => structuredClone(outcome));
+	}
+};
+/** Storage failures retain operation, path, source line, and the original cause. */
+var OutcomeStoreError = class extends Error {
+	operation;
+	path;
+	line;
+	constructor(operation, path, cause, line) {
+		super(`outcome store ${operation} failed at ${path}${line === void 0 ? "" : `:${line}`}`, { cause });
+		this.operation = operation;
+		this.path = path;
+		this.line = line;
+		this.name = "OutcomeStoreError";
+	}
+};
+/** Local storage with serialized operations per instance; use one writer per directory. */
+var FileSystemOutcomeStore = class {
+	dir;
+	maxBytes;
+	pending = Promise.resolve();
+	constructor(options) {
+		if (!options.dir.trim()) throw new Error("outcome store dir must be nonempty");
+		this.dir = options.dir;
+		this.maxBytes = options.maxBytes ?? 32 * 1024 * 1024;
+		if (!Number.isSafeInteger(this.maxBytes) || this.maxBytes < 1) throw new Error("outcome store maxBytes must be a positive safe integer");
+	}
+	async append(outcome) {
+		const snapshot = structuredClone(outcomeSchema.parse(outcome));
+		return this.serialize(async () => {
+			const fs = await import("node:fs/promises");
+			const path = await import("node:path");
+			const active = path.join(this.dir, "outcomes.ndjson");
+			try {
+				await fs.mkdir(this.dir, { recursive: true });
+				let size = 0;
+				try {
+					const stat = await fs.stat(active);
+					if (!stat.isFile()) throw new Error("active outcome path is not a regular file");
+					size = stat.size;
+				} catch (error) {
+					if (!isMissing(error)) throw error;
+				}
+				if (size >= this.maxBytes) {
+					const { randomUUID } = await import("node:crypto");
+					await fs.rename(active, path.join(this.dir, `outcomes.${Date.now()}.${randomUUID()}.ndjson`));
+				}
+				await fs.appendFile(active, `${JSON.stringify(snapshot)}\n`, "utf8");
+			} catch (error) {
+				throw new OutcomeStoreError("write", active, error);
+			}
+		});
+	}
+	async forRun(runId) {
+		return this.list({ runIds: [runId] });
+	}
+	async list(filter = {}) {
+		return this.serialize(async () => {
+			const fs = await import("node:fs/promises");
+			const path = await import("node:path");
+			let entries;
+			try {
+				entries = await fs.readdir(this.dir);
+			} catch (error) {
+				if (isMissing(error)) return [];
+				throw new OutcomeStoreError("read", this.dir, error);
+			}
+			const outcomes = [];
+			for (const file of entries.sort()) {
+				if (file !== "outcomes.ndjson" && !/^outcomes\..+\.ndjson$/.test(file)) continue;
+				const filePath = path.join(this.dir, file);
+				let content;
+				try {
+					content = await fs.readFile(filePath, "utf8");
+				} catch (error) {
+					throw new OutcomeStoreError("read", filePath, error);
+				}
+				for (const [index, line] of content.split("\n").entries()) {
+					if (!line.trim()) continue;
+					let outcome;
+					try {
+						outcome = outcomeSchema.parse(JSON.parse(line));
+					} catch (error) {
+						throw new OutcomeStoreError("decode", filePath, error, index + 1);
+					}
+					if (matches(outcome, filter)) outcomes.push(outcome);
+				}
+			}
+			return outcomes;
+		});
+	}
+	serialize(operation) {
+		const result = this.pending.then(operation);
+		this.pending = result.then(() => void 0, () => void 0);
+		return result;
+	}
+};
+function isMissing(error) {
+	return error instanceof Error && "code" in error && error.code === "ENOENT";
+}
+function matches(outcome, filter) {
+	if (filter.runIds && !filter.runIds.includes(outcome.runId)) return false;
+	if (filter.since !== void 0 && outcome.capturedAt < filter.since) return false;
+	if (filter.until !== void 0 && outcome.capturedAt > filter.until) return false;
+	if (filter.source && outcome.source !== filter.source) return false;
+	if (filter.label && outcome.labels?.[filter.label.key] !== filter.label.value) return false;
+	return true;
+}
+//#endregion
+export { InMemoryOutcomeStore as n, OutcomeStoreError as r, FileSystemOutcomeStore as t };
+
+//# sourceMappingURL=outcome-store-BXlkwMPR.js.map

package/dist/outcome-store-BXlkwMPR.js.map

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+{"version":3,"file":"outcome-store-BXlkwMPR.js","names":[],"sources":["../src/meta-eval/outcome-store.ts"],"sourcesContent":["/** Deployment observations join to evaluation records through their runId. */\n\nimport { z } from 'zod'\n\nexport interface DeploymentOutcome {\n  runId: string\n  capturedAt: number\n  /** Finite numeric outcomes; absence of a key means unmeasured. */\n  metrics: Record<string, number>\n  labels?: Record<string, string>\n  /** Source system or pipeline version. */\n  source?: string\n}\n\nexport interface OutcomeFilter {\n  runIds?: string[]\n  since?: number\n  until?: number\n  label?: { key: string; value: string }\n  source?: string\n}\n\nexport interface OutcomeStore {\n  append(outcome: DeploymentOutcome): Promise<void>\n  forRun(runId: string): Promise<DeploymentOutcome[]>\n  list(filter?: OutcomeFilter): Promise<DeploymentOutcome[]>\n}\n\nconst outcomeSchema = z\n  .object({\n    runId: z.string().min(1),\n    capturedAt: z.number().finite(),\n    metrics: z.record(z.string(), z.number().finite()),\n    labels: z.record(z.string(), z.string()).optional(),\n    source: z.string().optional(),\n  })\n  .passthrough()\n\nexport class InMemoryOutcomeStore implements OutcomeStore {\n  private items: DeploymentOutcome[] = []\n\n  async append(outcome: DeploymentOutcome): Promise<void> {\n    this.items.push(structuredClone(outcomeSchema.parse(outcome)))\n  }\n\n  async forRun(runId: string): Promise<DeploymentOutcome[]> {\n    return this.list({ runIds: [runId] })\n  }\n\n  async list(filter: OutcomeFilter = {}): Promise<DeploymentOutcome[]> {\n    return this.items\n      .filter((outcome) => matches(outcome, filter))\n      .map((outcome) => structuredClone(outcome))\n  }\n}\n\nexport interface FileSystemOutcomeStoreOptions {\n  dir: string\n  /** Rotate before a write once the active file reaches this size. Default 32 MiB. */\n  maxBytes?: number\n}\n\n/** Storage failures retain operation, path, source line, and the original cause. */\nexport class OutcomeStoreError extends Error {\n  constructor(\n    public readonly operation: 'read' | 'decode' | 'write',\n    public readonly path: string,\n    cause: unknown,\n    public readonly line?: number,\n  ) {\n    super(`outcome store ${operation} failed at ${path}${line === undefined ? '' : `:${line}`}`, {\n      cause,\n    })\n    this.name = 'OutcomeStoreError'\n  }\n}\n\n/** Local storage with serialized operations per instance; use one writer per directory. */\nexport class FileSystemOutcomeStore implements OutcomeStore {\n  private readonly dir: string\n  private readonly maxBytes: number\n  private pending: Promise<void> = Promise.resolve()\n\n  constructor(options: FileSystemOutcomeStoreOptions) {\n    if (!options.dir.trim()) throw new Error('outcome store dir must be nonempty')\n    this.dir = options.dir\n    this.maxBytes = options.maxBytes ?? 32 * 1024 * 1024\n    if (!Number.isSafeInteger(this.maxBytes) || this.maxBytes < 1) {\n      throw new Error('outcome store maxBytes must be a positive safe integer')\n    }\n  }\n\n  async append(outcome: DeploymentOutcome): Promise<void> {\n    const snapshot = structuredClone(outcomeSchema.parse(outcome))\n    return this.serialize(async () => {\n      const fs = await import('node:fs/promises')\n      const path = await import('node:path')\n      const active = path.join(this.dir, 'outcomes.ndjson')\n      try {\n        await fs.mkdir(this.dir, { recursive: true })\n        let size = 0\n        try {\n          const stat = await fs.stat(active)\n          if (!stat.isFile()) throw new Error('active outcome path is not a regular file')\n          size = stat.size\n        } catch (error) {\n          if (!isMissing(error)) throw error\n        }\n        if (size >= this.maxBytes) {\n          const { randomUUID } = await import('node:crypto')\n          await fs.rename(\n            active,\n            path.join(this.dir, `outcomes.${Date.now()}.${randomUUID()}.ndjson`),\n          )\n        }\n        await fs.appendFile(active, `${JSON.stringify(snapshot)}\\n`, 'utf8')\n      } catch (error) {\n        throw new OutcomeStoreError('write', active, error)\n      }\n    })\n  }\n\n  async forRun(runId: string): Promise<DeploymentOutcome[]> {\n    return this.list({ runIds: [runId] })\n  }\n\n  async list(filter: OutcomeFilter = {}): Promise<DeploymentOutcome[]> {\n    return this.serialize(async () => {\n      const fs = await import('node:fs/promises')\n      const path = await import('node:path')\n      let entries: string[]\n      try {\n        entries = await fs.readdir(this.dir)\n      } catch (error) {\n        if (isMissing(error)) return []\n        throw new OutcomeStoreError('read', this.dir, error)\n      }\n      const outcomes: DeploymentOutcome[] = []\n      // Read each snapshot from disk so later observations from another instance remain visible.\n      for (const file of entries.sort()) {\n        if (file !== 'outcomes.ndjson' && !/^outcomes\\..+\\.ndjson$/.test(file)) continue\n        const filePath = path.join(this.dir, file)\n        let content: string\n        try {\n          content = await fs.readFile(filePath, 'utf8')\n        } catch (error) {\n          throw new OutcomeStoreError('read', filePath, error)\n        }\n        for (const [index, line] of content.split('\\n').entries()) {\n          if (!line.trim()) continue\n          let outcome: DeploymentOutcome\n          try {\n            outcome = outcomeSchema.parse(JSON.parse(line))\n          } catch (error) {\n            throw new OutcomeStoreError('decode', filePath, error, index + 1)\n          }\n          if (matches(outcome, filter)) outcomes.push(outcome)\n        }\n      }\n      return outcomes\n    })\n  }\n\n  private serialize<T>(operation: () => Promise<T>): Promise<T> {\n    const result = this.pending.then(operation)\n    // A failed operation remains rejected to its caller, but does not disable later repaired reads or writes.\n    this.pending = result.then(\n      () => undefined,\n      () => undefined,\n    )\n    return result\n  }\n}\n\nfunction isMissing(error: unknown): boolean {\n  return error instanceof Error && 'code' in error && error.code === 'ENOENT'\n}\n\nfunction matches(outcome: DeploymentOutcome, filter: OutcomeFilter): boolean {\n  if (filter.runIds && !filter.runIds.includes(outcome.runId)) return false\n  if (filter.since !== undefined && outcome.capturedAt < filter.since) return false\n  if (filter.until !== undefined && outcome.capturedAt > filter.until) return false\n  if (filter.source && outcome.source !== filter.source) return false\n  if (filter.label && outcome.labels?.[filter.label.key] !== filter.label.value) return false\n  return 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package/dist/{outcome-store-BYHIuO0e.d.ts → outcome-store-CNt4iZ67.d.ts}

@@ -1,24 +1,12 @@
 //#region src/meta-eval/outcome-store.d.ts
-/**
- * OutcomeStore — deployment outcomes attached to Run IDs.
- *
- * Outcomes arrive asynchronously from production telemetry after the
- * eval run completed: user ratings, retention flags, conversion events,
- * revenue, support-ticket rate, anything a product team can measure.
- * The store is a peer to TraceStore — separate lifecycle, same runId
- * foreign key.
- *
- * The whole point of this module is to make the meta-eval correlation
- * question computable: `correlate(evalMetric, outcomeMetric) → r, ρ, n, CI`.
- */
+/** Deployment observations join to evaluation records through their runId. */
 interface DeploymentOutcome {
   runId: string;
   capturedAt: number;
-  /** Numeric outcomes keyed by name — retention_7d, csat, revenue_usd, etc. */
+  /** Finite numeric outcomes; absence of a key means unmeasured. */
   metrics: Record<string, number>;
-  /** Dimensions for stratified analysis — cohort, region, user_segment. */
   labels?: Record<string, string>;
-  /** Free-form provenance (source system, pipeline version). */
+  /** Source system or pipeline version. */
   source?: string;
 }
 interface OutcomeFilter {
@@ -33,8 +21,6 @@ interface OutcomeFilter {
 }
 interface OutcomeStore {
   append(outcome: DeploymentOutcome): Promise<void>;
-  /** All outcomes attached to this run (a single run can have many — multiple
-   *  capture windows over deployment time). */
   forRun(runId: string): Promise<DeploymentOutcome[]>;
   list(filter?: OutcomeFilter): Promise<DeploymentOutcome[]>;
 }
@@ -46,20 +32,27 @@ declare class InMemoryOutcomeStore implements OutcomeStore {
 }
 interface FileSystemOutcomeStoreOptions {
   dir: string;
+  /** Rotate before a write once the active file reaches this size. Default 32 MiB. */
   maxBytes?: number;
 }
+/** Storage failures retain operation, path, source line, and the original cause. */
+declare class OutcomeStoreError extends Error {
+  readonly operation: 'read' | 'decode' | 'write';
+  readonly path: string;
+  readonly line?: number | undefined;
+  constructor(operation: 'read' | 'decode' | 'write', path: string, cause: unknown, line?: number | undefined);
+}
+/** Local storage with serialized operations per instance; use one writer per directory. */
 declare class FileSystemOutcomeStore implements OutcomeStore {
-  private dir;
-  private maxBytes;
-  private memo?;
-  private loaded;
+  private readonly dir;
+  private readonly maxBytes;
+  private pending;
   constructor(options: FileSystemOutcomeStoreOptions);
-  private ensureDir;
   append(outcome: DeploymentOutcome): Promise<void>;
-  private load;
   forRun(runId: string): Promise<DeploymentOutcome[]>;
   list(filter?: OutcomeFilter): Promise<DeploymentOutcome[]>;
+  private serialize;
 }
 //#endregion
-export { OutcomeFilter as a, InMemoryOutcomeStore as i, FileSystemOutcomeStore as n, OutcomeStore as o, FileSystemOutcomeStoreOptions as r, DeploymentOutcome as t };
-//# sourceMappingURL=outcome-store-BYHIuO0e.d.ts.map
+export { OutcomeFilter as a, InMemoryOutcomeStore as i, FileSystemOutcomeStore as n, OutcomeStore as o, FileSystemOutcomeStoreOptions as r, OutcomeStoreError as s, DeploymentOutcome as t };
+//# sourceMappingURL=outcome-store-CNt4iZ67.d.ts.map

package/dist/outcome-store-CNt4iZ67.d.ts.map

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
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package/dist/{paired-arms-D4aeIHUy.js → paired-arms-JSDcs2zx.js}

@@ -321,7 +321,7 @@ function pairedRiskDifferenceScore(control, treatment, confidence = .95) {
 	const z = zQuantile(1 - (1 - confidence) / 2);
 	let lo = -1;
 	let hi = riskDifference;
-	for (let i = 0; i < 200; i++) {
+	for (let i = 0; i < 64; i++) {
 		const mid = (lo + hi) / 2;
 		if (tangoScore(b, c, n, mid) > z) lo = mid;
 		else hi = mid;
@@ -329,7 +329,7 @@ function pairedRiskDifferenceScore(control, treatment, confidence = .95) {
 	const lower = (lo + hi) / 2;
 	let ulo = riskDifference;
 	let uhi = 1;
-	for (let i = 0; i < 200; i++) {
+	for (let i = 0; i < 64; i++) {
 		const mid = (ulo + uhi) / 2;
 		if (tangoScore(b, c, n, mid) > -z) ulo = mid;
 		else uhi = mid;
@@ -538,6 +538,19 @@ function wilcoxonSignedRank(before, after, opts = {}) {
 		pFloor: 1,
 		nNonZero: 0
 	};
+	const abs = Math.abs(diffs[0]);
+	const allEqualAbs = diffs.every((d) => Math.abs(d) === abs);
+	if ((opts.method === void 0 || opts.method === "auto") && allEqualAbs) {
+		const positive = diffs.filter((d) => d > 0).length;
+		const negative = n - positive;
+		return {
+			w: positive * (n + 1) / 2,
+			p: binomialSignTwoSided(positive, negative),
+			method: "exact",
+			pFloor: Math.min(1, 2 ** (1 - n)),
+			nNonZero: n
+		};
+	}
 	const order = diffs.map((d, i) => ({
 		abs: Math.abs(d),
 		i
@@ -1042,4 +1055,4 @@ function metricValue(row, name) {
 //#endregion
 export { passAtK as _, MANN_WHITNEY_EXACT_MAX_STATES as a, mannWhitneyU as c, isBinaryOutcomeVector as d, mcnemar as f, pairedRiskDifferenceScore as g, pairedRiskDifferenceExact as h, DEFAULT_PERMUTATIONS as i, wilcoxonSignedRank as l, pairedRiskDifference as m, pairArms as n, MANN_WHITNEY_EXACT_MAX_WORK as o, pairedBinaryScale as p, pairRunRecords as r, WILCOXON_EXACT_MAX_N as s, comparePairedArms as t, normalCdf as u, wilson as v };
 
-//# sourceMappingURL=paired-arms-D4aeIHUy.js.map
+//# sourceMappingURL=paired-arms-JSDcs2zx.js.map

package/dist/paired-arms-JSDcs2zx.js.map

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+{"version":3,"file":"paired-arms-JSDcs2zx.js","names":[],"sources":["../src/statistics/paired-binary.ts","../src/math/normal.ts","../src/statistics/rank-tests.ts","../src/paired-arms.ts"],"sourcesContent":["import { regularizedIncompleteBeta } from '../math/special-functions'\nimport { binomialSignTwoSided, zQuantile } from './internal'\n\n// ── Binomial proportion + paired-binary + coding-eval estimators ─────\n//\n// The paired family above (pairedBootstrap/pairedTTest/wilcoxonSignedRank)\n// operates on continuous scores. Pass/fail A/B comparisons — \"does treatment\n// X raise the success RATE vs control\" — are binary and paired, so they need\n// their own correct estimators: McNemar for significance (only the discordant\n// pairs carry signal), the paired risk difference for effect size, Wilson for\n// a single-arm proportion CI, and pass@k for the standard k-sample coding-eval\n// metric. The normal approximation is wrong for proportions near 0/1 and for\n// the small discordant counts typical of eval runs, so these are exact /\n// Wilson-based, not Wald.\n\n/** A binomial proportion estimate with a confidence interval. */\nexport interface ProportionInterval {\n  /** Point estimate successes / n (0 when n = 0). */\n  estimate: number\n  /** Lower bound, clamped to [0, 1]. */\n  lower: number\n  /** Upper bound, clamped to [0, 1]. */\n  upper: number\n}\n\n/**\n * Wilson score interval for a binomial proportion. Correct at small n and near\n * 0/1, where the normal (Wald) approximation produces bounds outside [0, 1] and\n * understates coverage. Use this for any pass-rate / hit-rate / realness-rate\n * CI — the continuous `confidenceInterval` assumes the wrong distribution for a\n * proportion. `n = 0 ⇒ {0, 0, 0}`.\n */\nexport function wilson(successes: number, n: number, confidence = 0.95): ProportionInterval {\n  if (n <= 0) return { estimate: 0, lower: 0, upper: 0 }\n  if (successes < 0 || successes > n) {\n    throw new Error(`wilson: successes (${successes}) must be in [0, ${n}]`)\n  }\n  const z = zQuantile(1 - (1 - confidence) / 2)\n  const p = successes / n\n  const z2 = z * z\n  const denom = 1 + z2 / n\n  const center = (p + z2 / (2 * n)) / denom\n  const half = (z * Math.sqrt((p * (1 - p) + z2 / (4 * n)) / n)) / denom\n  return {\n    estimate: p,\n    lower: Math.max(0, center - half),\n    upper: Math.min(1, center + half),\n  }\n}\n\n/**\n * Are these per-item outcomes binary (every value exactly 0 or 1)?\n *\n * The discriminator a promotion gate needs before choosing a paired statistic.\n * On binary outcomes the paired delta vector lives in {-1, 0, +1} and is\n * normally dominated by zeros (both arms solve, or both arms miss, most items),\n * so its MEDIAN is pinned at exactly 0 no matter how large the real shift in\n * success rate is — and a bootstrap CI on that median collapses to [0, 0].\n * A gate keying on `ci.low > threshold` is then structurally unable to see\n * either a gain or a regression. Detect this shape and switch to the\n * paired-binary estimators ({@link mcnemar}, {@link pairedRiskDifference})\n * instead of silently answering \"no\" forever.\n *\n * Empty input is NOT binary: there is no evidence of the outcome's shape, and\n * defaulting an empty vector into the binary branch would pick a statistic on\n * no data at all.\n *\n * NOT the right discriminator for a gate. It recognises the literal {0, 1}\n * encoding and nothing else, so a pass/fail dimension emitted on 0-100 — which\n * judges in this codebase do routinely — reads as non-binary, and a single\n * partial-credit score in an otherwise pass/fail vector flips it to false while\n * leaving the median just as blind. Gates want {@link pairedBinaryScale} (any\n * two-point encoding). This predicate remains for callers that specifically\n * mean \"literally 0/1\".\n */\nexport function isBinaryOutcomeVector(values: ArrayLike<number>): boolean {\n  if (values.length === 0) return false\n  for (let i = 0; i < values.length; i++) {\n    const v = values[i]!\n    if (v !== 0 && v !== 1) return false\n  }\n  return true\n}\n\n/** Result of a McNemar paired-binary significance test. */\nexport interface McNemarResult {\n  /** Total paired observations. */\n  n: number\n  /** Discordant pairs (b + c) — the only ones that carry signal. */\n  nDiscordant: number\n  /** Pairs where treatment succeeded and control failed (\"newly correct\"). */\n  b: number\n  /** Pairs where control succeeded and treatment failed (\"newly wrong\"). */\n  c: number\n  /** Continuity-corrected chi-square statistic (reference; exact p drives the call). */\n  statistic: number\n  /** Two-sided p-value. Exact (binomial sign test on discordant pairs). */\n  pValue: number\n}\n\n/**\n * McNemar's test for paired binary outcomes — the correct significance test for\n * \"does treatment change the success rate vs control on the SAME items\". Only\n * discordant pairs (one arm right, the other wrong) carry information; concordant\n * pairs are uninformative, so a paired t-test / two-proportion z-test on the raw\n * rates is wrong here. The p-value is exact: under H0 the b \"treatment-wins\" are\n * Binomial(b + c, 0.5), so the two-sided p is the doubled binomial tail — correct\n * at the small discordant counts typical of eval runs (no continuity-corrected\n * chi-square approximation needed, though it is returned as `statistic` for\n * reference). Inputs are paired 0/1 (or boolean) arrays, control first to match\n * the module's (before, after) convention. Throws on unequal lengths.\n */\nexport function mcnemar(\n  control: ArrayLike<number | boolean>,\n  treatment: ArrayLike<number | boolean>,\n): McNemarResult {\n  if (control.length !== treatment.length) {\n    throw new Error(`mcnemar: unequal sample sizes (${control.length} vs ${treatment.length})`)\n  }\n  const n = control.length\n  let b = 0 // treatment 1, control 0\n  let c = 0 // treatment 0, control 1\n  for (let i = 0; i < n; i++) {\n    const ctrl = control[i] ? 1 : 0\n    const treat = treatment[i] ? 1 : 0\n    if (treat === 1 && ctrl === 0) b++\n    else if (treat === 0 && ctrl === 1) c++\n  }\n  const nDiscordant = b + c\n  const statistic = nDiscordant === 0 ? 0 : (Math.abs(b - c) - 1) ** 2 / nDiscordant\n  return { n, nDiscordant, b, c, statistic, pValue: binomialSignTwoSided(b, c) }\n}\n\n/** A paired binary effect size (treatment rate − control rate) with a CI. */\nexport interface RiskDifferenceResult {\n  /** Total paired observations. */\n  n: number\n  /** Discordant pairs: treatment-win count. */\n  b: number\n  /** Discordant pairs: control-win count. */\n  c: number\n  /** Paired risk difference p(treatment) − p(control) = (b − c) / n. */\n  riskDifference: number\n  /** Lower bound of the CI, clamped to [-1, 1]. */\n  lower: number\n  /** Upper bound of the CI, clamped to [-1, 1]. */\n  upper: number\n  /** Confidence level used. */\n  confidence: number\n}\n\n/**\n * Paired risk difference (the effect-size companion to {@link mcnemar}): the\n * change in success rate p(treatment) − p(control) on matched items, which for\n * paired binary data equals (b − c) / n. The CI uses the paired variance from\n * the discordant counts, not the independent-samples formula (which overstates\n * the interval by ignoring the pairing). Inputs are paired 0/1 (or boolean)\n * arrays, control first. Throws on unequal lengths.\n *\n * REPORTING ONLY — do NOT decide a promotion on this interval. The CI is a Wald\n * normal approximation, which badly UNDERCOVERS when only a handful of pairs are\n * discordant: at n = 3 with b = 2, c = 0 it returns [0.133, 1.000], excluding 0,\n * while McNemar's exact test on the same data gives p = 0.50. A gate keying on\n * `lower > 0` would promote noise. Use {@link pairedRiskDifferenceExact}, whose\n * interval is dual to the exact test by construction, for any decision.\n */\nexport function pairedRiskDifference(\n  control: ArrayLike<number | boolean>,\n  treatment: ArrayLike<number | boolean>,\n  confidence = 0.95,\n): RiskDifferenceResult {\n  if (control.length !== treatment.length) {\n    throw new Error(\n      `pairedRiskDifference: unequal sample sizes (${control.length} vs ${treatment.length})`,\n    )\n  }\n  const n = control.length\n  if (n === 0) return { n: 0, b: 0, c: 0, riskDifference: 0, lower: 0, upper: 0, confidence }\n  let b = 0\n  let c = 0\n  for (let i = 0; i < n; i++) {\n    const ctrl = control[i] ? 1 : 0\n    const treat = treatment[i] ? 1 : 0\n    if (treat === 1 && ctrl === 0) b++\n    else if (treat === 0 && ctrl === 1) c++\n  }\n  const rd = (b - c) / n\n  const variance = (b + c - (b - c) ** 2 / n) / (n * n)\n  const z = zQuantile(1 - (1 - confidence) / 2)\n  const half = z * Math.sqrt(Math.max(0, variance))\n  return {\n    n,\n    b,\n    c,\n    riskDifference: rd,\n    lower: Math.max(-1, rd - half),\n    upper: Math.min(1, rd + half),\n    confidence,\n  }\n}\n\n/** A paired binary effect size with an EXACT interval and the exact test that\n *  bounds it — one object so a caller cannot read the estimate without the\n *  significance it is entitled to. */\nexport interface ExactRiskDifferenceResult {\n  /** Total paired observations. */\n  n: number\n  /** Discordant pairs: treatment-win count. */\n  b: number\n  /** Discordant pairs: control-win count. */\n  c: number\n  /** Discordant pairs (b + c) — the only ones carrying information. */\n  nDiscordant: number\n  /** Paired risk difference p(treatment) − p(control) = (b − c) / n. */\n  riskDifference: number\n  /** Exact conditional CI lower bound. 0 when there are no discordant pairs. */\n  lower: number\n  /** Exact conditional CI upper bound. 0 when there are no discordant pairs. */\n  upper: number\n  /** Confidence level used. */\n  confidence: number\n  /** McNemar's exact two-sided p-value on the same discordant counts. */\n  pValue: number\n}\n\n/**\n * Paired risk difference with the EXACT CONDITIONAL interval — the estimator a\n * promotion gate may decide on.\n *\n * Conditional on the number of discordant pairs m = b + c, the treatment-win\n * count b is Binomial(m, π) with π = P(treatment wins | discordant), and the\n * risk difference is an exact reparameterisation: RD = (2π − 1)·m/n. So a\n * Clopper-Pearson exact interval for π maps straight onto RD. This buys the\n * property the Wald interval in {@link pairedRiskDifference} does not have:\n *\n *   **`lower > 0` ⟺ McNemar's exact test rejects at α = 1 − confidence.**\n *\n * Clopper-Pearson excludes π = 0.5 exactly when the two-sided exact binomial\n * test of π = 0.5 rejects, and that test IS {@link mcnemar}'s p-value — so the\n * interval and the test can never disagree, and a gate keyed on `lower` cannot\n * promote what the exact test refuses. The exact p is returned in the same\n * object so the two are impossible to compute apart.\n *\n * The interval is conservative (exact intervals over-cover; conditioning on m\n * discards the concordant pairs' information about m itself). That is the\n * correct direction for a promotion gate: it refuses more often, never less.\n *\n * With m = 0 there are no discordant pairs and π is not identified: the result\n * is the degenerate [0, 0] with p = 1. That is NOT evidence of equivalence —\n * callers must treat a zero-width interval as \"cannot decide\", not as \"no\n * difference\". Inputs are paired 0/1 (or boolean) arrays, control first.\n * Throws on unequal lengths.\n */\nexport function pairedRiskDifferenceExact(\n  control: ArrayLike<number | boolean>,\n  treatment: ArrayLike<number | boolean>,\n  confidence = 0.95,\n): ExactRiskDifferenceResult {\n  if (control.length !== treatment.length) {\n    throw new Error(\n      `pairedRiskDifferenceExact: unequal sample sizes (${control.length} vs ${treatment.length})`,\n    )\n  }\n  if (confidence <= 0 || confidence >= 1) {\n    throw new Error(`pairedRiskDifferenceExact: confidence must be in (0,1), got ${confidence}`)\n  }\n  const n = control.length\n  if (n === 0) {\n    return {\n      n: 0,\n      b: 0,\n      c: 0,\n      nDiscordant: 0,\n      riskDifference: 0,\n      lower: 0,\n      upper: 0,\n      confidence,\n      pValue: 1,\n    }\n  }\n  let b = 0\n  let c = 0\n  for (let i = 0; i < n; i++) {\n    const ctrl = control[i] ? 1 : 0\n    const treat = treatment[i] ? 1 : 0\n    if (treat === 1 && ctrl === 0) b++\n    else if (treat === 0 && ctrl === 1) c++\n  }\n  const m = b + c\n  const riskDifference = (b - c) / n\n  const pValue = binomialSignTwoSided(b, c)\n  if (m === 0) {\n    return { n, b, c, nDiscordant: 0, riskDifference: 0, lower: 0, upper: 0, confidence, pValue }\n  }\n  const alpha = 1 - confidence\n  const piLow = b === 0 ? 0 : betaQuantile(alpha / 2, b, m - b + 1)\n  const piHigh = b === m ? 1 : betaQuantile(1 - alpha / 2, b + 1, m - b)\n  const scale = m / n\n  return {\n    n,\n    b,\n    c,\n    nDiscordant: m,\n    riskDifference,\n    lower: Math.max(-1, (2 * piLow - 1) * scale),\n    upper: Math.min(1, (2 * piHigh - 1) * scale),\n    confidence,\n    pValue,\n  }\n}\n\n/** Inverse regularized incomplete beta by bisection on\n *  {@link regularizedIncompleteBeta}, which is monotone increasing in x. 80\n *  halvings of [0,1] resolve to ~8e-25, far past the continued fraction's own\n *  3e-15 tolerance, so the quantile is as exact as the CDF it inverts. */\nfunction betaQuantile(p: number, a: number, b: number): number {\n  if (p <= 0) return 0\n  if (p >= 1) return 1\n  let lo = 0\n  let hi = 1\n  for (let i = 0; i < 80; i++) {\n    const mid = (lo + hi) / 2\n    if (regularizedIncompleteBeta(mid, a, b) < p) lo = mid\n    else hi = mid\n  }\n  return (lo + hi) / 2\n}\n\n/** A paired binary effect size with an interval that is valid at a NONZERO\n *  margin — the estimator a noninferiority decision may be made on. */\nexport interface ScoreRiskDifferenceResult {\n  /** Total paired observations. */\n  n: number\n  /** Discordant pairs: treatment-win count. */\n  b: number\n  /** Discordant pairs: control-win count. */\n  c: number\n  /** Discordant pairs (b + c). */\n  nDiscordant: number\n  /** Paired risk difference p(treatment) − p(control) = (b − c) / n. */\n  riskDifference: number\n  /** Score-interval lower bound on the population risk difference. */\n  lower: number\n  /** Score-interval upper bound on the population risk difference. */\n  upper: number\n  /** Confidence level used. */\n  confidence: number\n}\n\n/**\n * Constrained MLE of q = P(treatment loses) under the hypothesis RD = `delta`.\n *\n * Profiling the two concordant cells out of the multinomial leaves\n * `L(q) = b·log(q+delta) + c·log(q) + e·log(1 − 2q − delta)` with `e = n − b − c`,\n * whose stationary point is the positive root of\n * `2n·q² − [(b + c) − delta·(b + 3c + 2e)]·q − c·delta·(1 − delta) = 0`.\n * At `delta = 0` this returns `(b + c) / 2n`, the familiar null.\n */\nfunction constrainedLossRate(b: number, c: number, n: number, delta: number): number {\n  const e = n - b - c\n  const quadratic = 2 * n\n  const linear = -(b + c - delta * (b + 3 * c + 2 * e))\n  const constant = -c * delta * (1 - delta)\n  const discriminant = linear * linear - 4 * quadratic * constant\n  const root = discriminant > 0 ? Math.sqrt(discriminant) : 0\n  const q = (-linear + root) / (2 * quadratic)\n  // Clamp into the region where all four cell probabilities stay non-negative.\n  return Math.min(Math.max(q, Math.max(0, -delta)), Math.max(0, (1 - delta) / 2))\n}\n\n/** Tango's score statistic for H0: RD = `delta`. `Var(b − c) = n·(2q + delta −\n *  delta²)` under that hypothesis, evaluated at the constrained MLE of q. */\nfunction tangoScore(b: number, c: number, n: number, delta: number): number {\n  const numerator = b - c - n * delta\n  const q = constrainedLossRate(b, c, n, delta)\n  const variance = n * (2 * q + delta * (1 - delta))\n  if (!(variance > 0)) {\n    if (numerator === 0) return 0\n    return numerator > 0 ? Number.POSITIVE_INFINITY : Number.NEGATIVE_INFINITY\n  }\n  return numerator / Math.sqrt(variance)\n}\n\n/**\n * Paired risk difference with TANGO'S (1998) SCORE INTERVAL — the estimator a\n * promotion gate may decide on **at a nonzero margin**.\n *\n * {@link pairedRiskDifferenceExact} conditions on the observed discordant count\n * `m = b + c`, builds a Clopper-Pearson interval for the win share among those\n * `m` pairs, and multiplies by the observed `m/n`. That is exact for testing\n * RD = 0 — it is dual to McNemar — but it is NOT a confidence interval for the\n * population risk difference at a nonzero margin, because the sampling\n * variability of `m/n` itself is discarded. The gap is not academic: with the\n * production caller's `pairedDeltaThreshold: -0.05`, a process whose true risk\n * difference sits exactly on that margin clears a nominal-95 % `lower > margin`\n * check 24.75 % of the time at n = 40 and 43.95 % at n = 76 (2000 replicates\n * each) when the conditional interval decides.\n *\n * Tango's interval inverts the score test of RD = delta, which estimates the\n * nuisance loss rate under each hypothesised delta instead of fixing it at the\n * observed value, so `m` contributes its own uncertainty. It is the method\n * `ratesci::scorepairci` uses for paired risk-difference noninferiority, and it\n * is not conditional, so it stays valid as the margin moves away from zero.\n *\n * The bounds are found by bisecting `tangoScore(delta) = ±z` — the score is\n * monotone decreasing in delta, so each crossing is unique. Inputs are paired\n * 0/1 (or boolean) arrays, control first. Throws on unequal lengths.\n */\nexport function pairedRiskDifferenceScore(\n  control: ArrayLike<number | boolean>,\n  treatment: ArrayLike<number | boolean>,\n  confidence = 0.95,\n): ScoreRiskDifferenceResult {\n  if (control.length !== treatment.length) {\n    throw new Error(\n      `pairedRiskDifferenceScore: unequal sample sizes (${control.length} vs ${treatment.length})`,\n    )\n  }\n  if (confidence <= 0 || confidence >= 1) {\n    throw new Error(`pairedRiskDifferenceScore: confidence must be in (0,1), got ${confidence}`)\n  }\n  const n = control.length\n  if (n === 0) {\n    return { n: 0, b: 0, c: 0, nDiscordant: 0, riskDifference: 0, lower: -1, upper: 1, confidence }\n  }\n  let b = 0\n  let c = 0\n  for (let i = 0; i < n; i++) {\n    const ctrl = control[i] ? 1 : 0\n    const treat = treatment[i] ? 1 : 0\n    if (treat === 1 && ctrl === 0) b++\n    else if (treat === 0 && ctrl === 1) c++\n  }\n  const riskDifference = (b - c) / n\n  const z = zQuantile(1 - (1 - confidence) / 2)\n\n  // Lower bound: the smallest delta still inside the interval, i.e. the root of\n  // score(delta) = +z on [-1, riskDifference]. score(riskDifference) = 0 < z, so\n  // the right endpoint is always inside and the bisection is well posed.\n  let lo = -1\n  let hi = riskDifference\n  // 64 halvings resolve the [-1, 1] search interval below 6e-20, past the\n  // precision available to the score calculation. More iterations only\n  // repeat identical floating-point values while multiplying every gate\n  // decision's cost.\n  for (let i = 0; i < 64; i++) {\n    const mid = (lo + hi) / 2\n    if (tangoScore(b, c, n, mid) > z) lo = mid\n    else hi = mid\n  }\n  const lower = (lo + hi) / 2\n\n  // Upper bound: root of score(delta) = -z on [riskDifference, 1].\n  let ulo = riskDifference\n  let uhi = 1\n  for (let i = 0; i < 64; i++) {\n    const mid = (ulo + uhi) / 2\n    if (tangoScore(b, c, n, mid) > -z) ulo = mid\n    else uhi = mid\n  }\n  const upper = (ulo + uhi) / 2\n\n  return {\n    n,\n    b,\n    c,\n    nDiscordant: b + c,\n    riskDifference,\n    lower: Math.max(-1, lower),\n    upper: Math.min(1, upper),\n    confidence,\n  }\n}\n\n/**\n * The common positive level `s` such that EVERY value across both paired arms is\n * exactly 0 or `s` — i.e. the outcome is pass/fail, whatever encoding it arrived\n * in. Returns null when the outcomes are not two-point, when the two arms use\n * different levels, or when no positive value was observed at all (all-zero\n * arms: the level is not identified, and there is nothing to decide anyway).\n *\n * This is the scale-aware successor to {@link isBinaryOutcomeVector}, which only\n * recognises literal {0, 1}. Judges in this codebase emit dimensions on 0-100 as\n * well as [0,1] (see `detectScale` in `campaign/gates/statistical-heldout.ts`),\n * so a pass/fail dimension routinely arrives as {0, 100} and a {0,1}-only test\n * silently sends it down the median path that cannot see it. Any positive level\n * is accepted, not just 1 and 100: for a two-point {0, s} outcome the mean paired\n * delta is exactly s·(b − c)/n, so the binary estimators apply after dividing by\n * s and rescaling the result back into the caller's native units.\n *\n * Non-finite values ⇒ null: an unusable outcome must not be classified as a\n * clean pass/fail shape.\n */\nexport function pairedBinaryScale(\n  before: ArrayLike<number>,\n  after: ArrayLike<number>,\n): number | null {\n  let level: number | null = null\n  for (const arm of [before, after]) {\n    for (let i = 0; i < arm.length; i++) {\n      const v = arm[i]!\n      if (!Number.isFinite(v)) return null\n      if (v === 0) continue\n      if (v < 0) return null\n      if (level === null) level = v\n      else if (v !== level) return null\n    }\n  }\n  return level\n}\n\n/**\n * Unbiased pass@k for code generation (Chen et al. 2021, \"Evaluating Large\n * Language Models Trained on Code\"). Given `n` independent samples for one\n * problem of which `c` pass, the probability that at least one of a random k of\n * them passes is 1 − C(n−c, k) / C(n, k). Estimating pass@k as \"did any of the\n * first k pass\" is biased high at small n; this is the variance-reduced estimator\n * averaged implicitly over all k-subsets. Average the per-problem values across\n * the suite for the corpus pass@k. Computed in the numerically stable product\n * form. Requires 1 ≤ k ≤ n and 0 ≤ c ≤ n.\n */\nexport function passAtK(n: number, c: number, k: number): number {\n  if (!Number.isInteger(n) || !Number.isInteger(c) || !Number.isInteger(k)) {\n    throw new Error(`passAtK: n, c, k must be integers (got n=${n}, c=${c}, k=${k})`)\n  }\n  if (k < 1 || k > n || c < 0 || c > n) {\n    throw new Error(`passAtK: require 1 ≤ k ≤ n and 0 ≤ c ≤ n (got n=${n}, c=${c}, k=${k})`)\n  }\n  if (n - c < k) return 1\n  let prob = 1\n  for (let i = n - c + 1; i <= n; i++) prob *= 1 - k / i\n  return 1 - prob\n}\n","/**\n * Standard normal cumulative distribution using Abramowitz and Stegun 7.1.26.\n *\n * The approximation is evaluated as erf(x / sqrt(2)). Computing the negative\n * tail from the complementary term avoids cancellation when x is far below 0.\n * The maximum absolute CDF error is approximately 7.5e-8.\n */\nexport function normalCdf(x: number): number {\n  if (x === 0) return 0.5\n\n  const a1 = 0.254829592\n  const a2 = -0.284496736\n  const a3 = 1.421413741\n  const a4 = -1.453152027\n  const a5 = 1.061405429\n  const p = 0.3275911\n\n  const scaled = Math.abs(x) / Math.SQRT2\n  const t = 1 / (1 + p * scaled)\n  const complement = ((((a5 * t + a4) * t + a3) * t + a2) * t + a1) * t * Math.exp(-scaled * scaled)\n\n  return x < 0 ? complement / 2 : 1 - complement / 2\n}\n","import { ValidationError } from '../errors'\nimport { normalCdf } from '../math/normal'\nimport { lnGamma } from '../math/special-functions'\nimport {\n  assertFiniteSample,\n  binomialSignTwoSided,\n  makeRng,\n  symmetricTwoSampleSeed,\n} from './internal'\n\n// ── Rank tests: exact by default ─────────────────────────────────────\n//\n// At 3–10 repetitions per arm the binding constraint on a rank test is\n// combinatorial, not numerical. Three versus three admits only 20 splits, so\n// the attainable two-sided p-grid starts at 0.1000 and α = 0.05 is out of\n// reach at that design; a normal approximation reports 0.0495, a p-value that\n// describes no attainable outcome. No better approximation fixes this — adding\n// the tie correction moves `[0,0,0]` versus `[1,1,1]` from 0.0495 to 0.0469,\n// further from its exact 0.1000, not closer.\n//\n// So both null distributions are enumerated exactly inside bounded state and\n// work budgets, by convolution over the observed midranks (identical to\n// enumerating every split / sign pattern, and cheaper), which conditions on the\n// realised tie pattern for free. Above those budgets the default is a seeded\n// Monte Carlo permutation. The asymptotic path is never chosen automatically,\n// and asking for it inside the exact-feasible range throws.\n//\n// Every result carries `method` and `pFloor` so a downstream gate can SEE the\n// discreteness rather than infer it: a gate handed data whose `pFloor` exceeds\n// its alpha is underpowered by construction, which is a true statement about\n// the experiment, not a false one about the effect.\n\n/** How a rank test's p-value was actually computed. */\nexport type RankTestMethod = 'exact' | 'permutation' | 'asymptotic'\n\n/**\n * What the caller asks for. `'auto'` selects `'exact'` inside the enumeration\n * threshold and `'permutation'` above it, and never selects `'asymptotic'`.\n */\nexport type RankTestMethodRequest = 'auto' | 'exact' | 'asymptotic'\n\nexport interface RankTestOptions {\n  /** Default `'auto'`. `'asymptotic'` inside the exact-feasible range throws. */\n  method?: RankTestMethodRequest\n  /** Resamples on the Monte Carlo permutation path. Default 100000. */\n  permutations?: number\n  /** Seed for the permutation path. Omitted ⇒ derived from the data itself, so\n   *  the result is reproducible either way. */\n  seed?: number\n}\n\n/** Maximum dynamic-programming cells used by an exact two-sample rank test. */\nexport const MANN_WHITNEY_EXACT_MAX_STATES = 8_192\n/** Maximum inner-loop transitions used by an exact two-sample rank test. */\nexport const MANN_WHITNEY_EXACT_MAX_WORK = 250_000\n/** Non-zero differences up to which the signed-rank null is enumerated exactly. */\nexport const WILCOXON_EXACT_MAX_N = 20\n/** Resamples used when a rank test falls back to Monte Carlo permutation. */\nexport const DEFAULT_PERMUTATIONS = 100_000\n\nexport interface MannWhitneyResult {\n  /** `min(U_a, U_b)` — the conventional reported statistic. */\n  u: number\n  /** U for sample `a`. Carries the direction of the effect, which `u` discards. */\n  uA: number\n  /** Two-sided p-value. */\n  p: number\n  /** How `p` was computed. */\n  method: RankTestMethod\n  /** Smallest two-sided p this design can produce. `p` can never be below it. */\n  pFloor: number\n}\n\n/**\n * Mann-Whitney U — two independent samples, no distributional assumption.\n *\n * Exact conditional (permutation) p by default when the dynamic program fits\n * {@link MANN_WHITNEY_EXACT_MAX_STATES} cells and\n * {@link MANN_WHITNEY_EXACT_MAX_WORK} transitions, seeded Monte Carlo\n * permutation above those limits. This keeps imbalanced designs such as 1+24\n * exact without admitting expensive balanced designs merely because they have\n * the same total size. Throws on non-finite input and on `method:\n * 'asymptotic'` where an exact answer is available. Empty input yields `p = 1,\n * pFloor = 1` — no design, no attainable evidence.\n */\nexport function mannWhitneyU(\n  a: number[],\n  b: number[],\n  opts: RankTestOptions = {},\n): MannWhitneyResult {\n  assertFiniteSample('mannWhitneyU', 'a', a)\n  assertFiniteSample('mannWhitneyU', 'b', b)\n\n  const n1 = a.length\n  const n2 = b.length\n  if (n1 === 0 || n2 === 0) return { u: 0, uA: 0, p: 1, method: 'exact', pFloor: 1 }\n\n  const total = n1 + n2\n  const combined = [\n    ...a.map((v) => ({ v, fromA: true })),\n    ...b.map((v) => ({ v, fromA: false })),\n  ].sort((x, y) => x.v - y.v)\n\n  const { midranks, tieTerm } = midranksWithTieTerm(combined.map((entry) => entry.v))\n  let rankSumA = 0\n  for (let k = 0; k < total; k++) {\n    if (combined[k]!.fromA) rankSumA += midranks[k]!\n  }\n\n  const uA = rankSumA - (n1 * (n1 + 1)) / 2\n  const u = Math.min(uA, n1 * n2 - uA)\n  // Midranks are integers or halves, so doubling makes the null convolution\n  // integral. U is centred on n₁n₂/2, hence a doubled centre of n₁n₂.\n  const doubled = midranks.map((rank) => Math.round(rank * 2))\n  const doubledDeviation = Math.abs(2 * uA - n1 * n2)\n  const selectedN = Math.min(n1, n2)\n  const otherN = total - selectedN\n  const exactCost = exactTwoSampleCost(doubled, selectedN)\n\n  const designFloor = exactTwoSampleFloor(doubled, selectedN)\n  const method = selectRankTestMethod(\n    'mannWhitneyU',\n    opts.method ?? 'auto',\n    `n1=${n1}, n2=${n2}`,\n    exactCost.states <= MANN_WHITNEY_EXACT_MAX_STATES &&\n      exactCost.work <= MANN_WHITNEY_EXACT_MAX_WORK,\n    designFloor,\n    `${MANN_WHITNEY_EXACT_MAX_STATES.toLocaleString('en-US')} states and ` +\n      `${MANN_WHITNEY_EXACT_MAX_WORK.toLocaleString('en-US')} transitions`,\n  )\n\n  if (method === 'exact') {\n    const { p, pFloor } = exactTwoSampleP(doubled, selectedN, otherN, doubledDeviation)\n    return { u, uA, p, method, pFloor }\n  }\n\n  if (method === 'asymptotic') {\n    return {\n      u,\n      uA,\n      p: asymptoticTwoSidedP(doubledDeviation / 2, twoSampleSigma(n1, n2, total, tieTerm)),\n      method,\n      pFloor: designFloor,\n    }\n  }\n\n  const permutations = resolvePermutations('mannWhitneyU', opts.permutations)\n  const rng = opts.seed === undefined ? makeRng(symmetricTwoSampleSeed(a, b)) : makeRng(opts.seed)\n  let atLeastAsExtreme = 0\n  const pool = [...doubled]\n  for (let iteration = 0; iteration < permutations; iteration++) {\n    let doubledRankSum = 0\n    for (let k = 0; k < selectedN; k++) {\n      const pick = k + Math.floor(rng() * (total - k))\n      const swapped = pool[pick]!\n      pool[pick] = pool[k]!\n      pool[k] = swapped\n      doubledRankSum += swapped\n    }\n    if (\n      Math.abs(doubledRankSum - selectedN * (selectedN + 1) - selectedN * otherN) >=\n      doubledDeviation\n    ) {\n      atLeastAsExtreme++\n    }\n  }\n  const pFloor = Math.max(1 / (permutations + 1), designFloor)\n  return {\n    u,\n    uA,\n    p: Math.max((1 + atLeastAsExtreme) / (permutations + 1), pFloor),\n    method,\n    pFloor,\n  }\n}\n\nexport interface WilcoxonSignedRankResult {\n  /** W⁺, the rank sum of the positive differences. (scipy reports\n   *  `min(W⁺, W⁻)`; compare statistics only after converting.) */\n  w: number\n  /** Two-sided p-value. */\n  p: number\n  /** How `p` was computed. */\n  method: RankTestMethod\n  /** Smallest two-sided p this design can produce. */\n  pFloor: number\n  /** Non-zero differences — zero differences are dropped and carry no rank. */\n  nNonZero: number\n}\n\n/**\n * Wilcoxon signed-rank — paired, no distributional assumption on the deltas.\n *\n * Exact conditional (sign-flip) p by default at `n ≤\n * {@link WILCOXON_EXACT_MAX_N}` non-zero differences, seeded Monte Carlo\n * permutation above it. Throws on non-finite input and on `method:\n * 'asymptotic'` where an exact answer is available.\n *\n * `n` is the count of NON-ZERO differences: exact ties are dropped before\n * ranking, so a run of tied pairs shrinks the design and raises `pFloor`.\n * All-tied input yields `p = 1, pFloor = 1` — no attainable evidence, which\n * `pFloor` states rather than leaving `p = 1` to be read as a measured null.\n */\nexport function wilcoxonSignedRank(\n  before: number[],\n  after: number[],\n  opts: RankTestOptions = {},\n): WilcoxonSignedRankResult {\n  if (before.length !== after.length) {\n    throw new ValidationError(\n      `wilcoxonSignedRank: unequal sample sizes (${before.length} vs ${after.length})`,\n    )\n  }\n  assertFiniteSample('wilcoxonSignedRank', 'before', before)\n  assertFiniteSample('wilcoxonSignedRank', 'after', after)\n\n  const diffs = before.map((b, i) => after[i]! - b).filter((d) => d !== 0)\n  const n = diffs.length\n  if (n === 0) return { w: 0, p: 1, method: 'exact', pFloor: 1, nNonZero: 0 }\n\n  // When every non-zero difference has the same magnitude, the signed-rank\n  // null reduces exactly to a binomial sign distribution. This is the common\n  // pass/fail shape ({-1, 0, +1}); recognizing it avoids a 100k-draw\n  // permutation for every repeated gate evaluation while preserving the exact\n  // p-value and attainable floor. Explicit method requests still retain their\n  // documented behavior.\n  const abs = Math.abs(diffs[0]!)\n  const allEqualAbs = diffs.every((d) => Math.abs(d) === abs)\n  if ((opts.method === undefined || opts.method === 'auto') && allEqualAbs) {\n    const positive = diffs.filter((d) => d > 0).length\n    const negative = n - positive\n    return {\n      w: (positive * (n + 1)) / 2,\n      p: binomialSignTwoSided(positive, negative),\n      method: 'exact',\n      pFloor: Math.min(1, 2 ** (1 - n)),\n      nNonZero: n,\n    }\n  }\n\n  const order = diffs.map((d, i) => ({ abs: Math.abs(d), i })).sort((x, y) => x.abs - y.abs)\n  const { midranks, tieTerm } = midranksWithTieTerm(order.map((entry) => entry.abs))\n  const ranks: number[] = new Array(n)\n  for (let k = 0; k < n; k++) ranks[order[k]!.i] = midranks[k]!\n\n  let wPlus = 0\n  for (let k = 0; k < n; k++) if (diffs[k]! > 0) wPlus += ranks[k]!\n\n  // Midranks are integers or halves; doubling makes the convolution integral.\n  // Σ midranks = n(n+1)/2 whatever the tie pattern, so E[W⁺] = n(n+1)/4 and\n  // the doubled centre is n(n+1)/2.\n  const doubled = midranks.map((rank) => Math.round(rank * 2))\n  const doubledDeviation = Math.abs(2 * wPlus - (n * (n + 1)) / 2)\n\n  const designFloor = Math.min(1, 2 ** (1 - n))\n  const method = selectRankTestMethod(\n    'wilcoxonSignedRank',\n    opts.method ?? 'auto',\n    `n=${n} non-zero differences`,\n    n <= WILCOXON_EXACT_MAX_N,\n    designFloor,\n    `${WILCOXON_EXACT_MAX_N} non-zero differences`,\n  )\n\n  if (method === 'exact') {\n    const { p, pFloor } = exactSignedRankP(doubled, doubledDeviation)\n    return { w: wPlus, p, method, pFloor, nNonZero: n }\n  }\n\n  if (method === 'asymptotic') {\n    const variance = (n * (n + 1) * (2 * n + 1)) / 24 - tieTerm / 48\n    return {\n      w: wPlus,\n      p: asymptoticTwoSidedP(doubledDeviation / 2, Math.sqrt(variance)),\n      method,\n      pFloor: designFloor,\n      nNonZero: n,\n    }\n  }\n\n  const permutations = resolvePermutations('wilcoxonSignedRank', opts.permutations)\n  const rng = makeRng(opts.seed, before, after)\n  const doubledCentre = (n * (n + 1)) / 2\n  let atLeastAsExtreme = 0\n  for (let iteration = 0; iteration < permutations; iteration++) {\n    let doubledWPlus = 0\n    for (let k = 0; k < n; k++) if (rng() < 0.5) doubledWPlus += doubled[k]!\n    if (Math.abs(doubledWPlus - doubledCentre) >= doubledDeviation) atLeastAsExtreme++\n  }\n  return {\n    w: wPlus,\n    p: (1 + atLeastAsExtreme) / (permutations + 1),\n    method,\n    pFloor: Math.max(1 / (permutations + 1), designFloor),\n    nNonZero: n,\n  }\n}\n\n/**\n * Average ranks over an ASCENDING-sorted array, plus `Σ(t³ − t)` over tie\n * groups of size `t` — the correction term both asymptotic rank-test variances\n * need.\n */\nfunction midranksWithTieTerm(sorted: readonly number[]): { midranks: number[]; tieTerm: number } {\n  const midranks = new Array<number>(sorted.length)\n  let tieTerm = 0\n  let i = 0\n  while (i < sorted.length) {\n    let j = i\n    while (j < sorted.length && sorted[j] === sorted[i]) j++\n    const average = (i + 1 + j) / 2\n    for (let k = i; k < j; k++) midranks[k] = average\n    const groupSize = j - i\n    if (groupSize > 1) tieTerm += groupSize ** 3 - groupSize\n    i = j\n  }\n  return { midranks, tieTerm }\n}\n\nfunction selectRankTestMethod(\n  fn: string,\n  request: RankTestMethodRequest,\n  design: string,\n  exactFeasible: boolean,\n  designFloor: number,\n  threshold: string,\n): RankTestMethod {\n  if (request === 'auto') return exactFeasible ? 'exact' : 'permutation'\n  if (request === 'exact') {\n    if (exactFeasible) return 'exact'\n    throw new ValidationError(\n      `${fn}: method 'exact' is out of range at ${design} — enumeration is bounded by ` +\n        `${threshold}. Use 'auto' for the seeded Monte Carlo permutation, which converges ` +\n        'to the same answer.',\n    )\n  }\n  if (exactFeasible) {\n    throw new ValidationError(\n      `${fn}: method 'asymptotic' is refused at ${design} — the exact p-grid at this design ` +\n        `starts at ${formatProbability(designFloor)}, so an asymptotic p below it describes no ` +\n        `attainable outcome. Use method 'exact' (the default) or add repetitions past ` +\n        `${threshold}.`,\n    )\n  }\n  return 'asymptotic'\n}\n\nfunction resolvePermutations(fn: string, permutations: number | undefined): number {\n  if (permutations === undefined) return DEFAULT_PERMUTATIONS\n  if (!Number.isInteger(permutations) || permutations < 1) {\n    throw new ValidationError(`${fn}: permutations must be a positive integer, got ${permutations}`)\n  }\n  return permutations\n}\n\n/** Two-sided normal-approximation tail with the continuity correction. */\nfunction asymptoticTwoSidedP(deviation: number, sigma: number): number {\n  if (!(sigma > 0)) return 1\n  return Math.min(1, 2 * (1 - normalCdf(Math.max(0, deviation - 0.5) / sigma)))\n}\n\n/** SD of U under the permutation null, corrected for the realised ties. The\n *  tie term reduces (N+1) and reaches it exactly when every value is tied, so\n *  the variance floors at 0 rather than going negative. */\nfunction twoSampleSigma(n1: number, n2: number, total: number, tieTerm: number): number {\n  if (total < 2) return 0\n  const variance = ((n1 * n2) / 12) * (total + 1 - tieTerm / (total * (total - 1)))\n  return Math.sqrt(Math.max(0, variance))\n}\n\nfunction logChoose(n: number, k: number): number {\n  return lnGamma(n + 1) - lnGamma(k + 1) - lnGamma(n - k + 1)\n}\n\nfunction formatProbability(value: number): string {\n  return value >= 1e-4 || value === 0 ? value.toFixed(4) : value.toExponential(3)\n}\n\n/**\n * Exact DP allocation and loop count for this observed rank vector.\n *\n * The smaller arm is sufficient because selecting its complement produces the\n * same two-sided U deviation while using fewer rows in the state table.\n */\nfunction exactTwoSampleCost(\n  doubledRanks: readonly number[],\n  selectedN: number,\n): { states: number; work: number } {\n  const maxSum = doubledRanks.reduce((sum, rank) => sum + rank, 0)\n  let work = 0\n  for (let placed = 0; placed < doubledRanks.length; placed++) {\n    work += Math.min(selectedN, placed + 1) * (maxSum - doubledRanks[placed]! + 1)\n  }\n  return {\n    states: (selectedN + 1) * (maxSum + 1),\n    work,\n  }\n}\n\n/**\n * Smallest attainable two-sided p under the observed ties.\n *\n * Only subsets with the minimum or maximum rank sum can attain the largest\n * deviation. Their multiplicity is the number of ways to choose within the\n * tie group at each boundary, so this calculation is exact without allocating\n * the full null distribution.\n */\nfunction exactTwoSampleFloor(doubledRanks: readonly number[], selectedN: number): number {\n  const total = doubledRanks.length\n  const otherN = total - selectedN\n  const minimumSum = doubledRanks.slice(0, selectedN).reduce((sum, rank) => sum + rank, 0)\n  const maximumSum = doubledRanks.slice(total - selectedN).reduce((sum, rank) => sum + rank, 0)\n  if (minimumSum === maximumSum) return 1\n\n  const centre = selectedN * (selectedN + 1) + selectedN * otherN\n  const minimumDeviation = Math.abs(minimumSum - centre)\n  const maximumDeviation = Math.abs(maximumSum - centre)\n  const totalLogWays = logChoose(total, selectedN)\n  const minimumMass = Math.exp(\n    logExtremeSubsetWays(doubledRanks, selectedN, 'minimum') - totalLogWays,\n  )\n  const maximumMass = Math.exp(\n    logExtremeSubsetWays(doubledRanks, selectedN, 'maximum') - totalLogWays,\n  )\n\n  if (minimumDeviation > maximumDeviation) return minimumMass\n  if (maximumDeviation > minimumDeviation) return maximumMass\n  return Math.min(1, minimumMass + maximumMass)\n}\n\nfunction logExtremeSubsetWays(\n  sortedRanks: readonly number[],\n  selectedN: number,\n  side: 'minimum' | 'maximum',\n): number {\n  const boundaryIndex = side === 'minimum' ? selectedN - 1 : sortedRanks.length - selectedN\n  const boundary = sortedRanks[boundaryIndex]!\n  let first = boundaryIndex\n  let afterLast = boundaryIndex + 1\n  while (first > 0 && sortedRanks[first - 1] === boundary) first--\n  while (afterLast < sortedRanks.length && sortedRanks[afterLast] === boundary) afterLast++\n\n  const tieSize = afterLast - first\n  const fixed = side === 'minimum' ? first : sortedRanks.length - afterLast\n  return logChoose(tieSize, selectedN - fixed)\n}\n\n/**\n * Exact conditional two-sided p for the two-sample rank test.\n *\n * Convolves the observed doubled midranks into the null distribution of group\n * a's rank sum over every `C(n₁+n₂, n₁)` split — identical to enumerating the\n * splits, but `O(N·n₁·ΣR)` instead of `O(C(N,n₁)·n₁n₂)`. Conditioning on the\n * realised multiset makes the tie handling exact rather than a correction.\n *\n * The null is symmetric about `n₁n₂/2` (negating every value maps `U → n₁n₂ −\n * U` and permutes the split set onto itself), so the two-sided p is the mass\n * at least as far from the centre as the observation.\n */\nfunction exactTwoSampleP(\n  doubledRanks: readonly number[],\n  n1: number,\n  n2: number,\n  doubledDeviation: number,\n): { p: number; pFloor: number } {\n  const maxSum = doubledRanks.reduce((sum, rank) => sum + rank, 0)\n  const width = maxSum + 1\n  // ways[k][s] = number of size-k subsets whose doubled rank sum is s.\n  const ways: Float64Array[] = Array.from({ length: n1 + 1 }, () => new Float64Array(width))\n  ways[0]![0] = 1\n  let placed = 0\n  for (const rank of doubledRanks) {\n    for (let k = Math.min(n1, placed + 1); k >= 1; k--) {\n      const from = ways[k - 1]!\n      const into = ways[k]!\n      for (let sum = maxSum - rank; sum >= 0; sum--) {\n        const count = from[sum]!\n        if (count !== 0) into[sum + rank]! += count\n      }\n    }\n    placed++\n  }\n\n  // U = rankSum − n₁(n₁+1)/2, so doubled U = s − n₁(n₁+1), and the doubled\n  // centre 2·(n₁n₂/2) is n₁n₂.\n  const shift = n1 * (n1 + 1) + n1 * n2\n  const chosen = ways[n1]!\n  let totalWays = 0\n  let extremeWays = 0\n  let tailWays = 0\n  let maxDeviation = -1\n  for (let sum = 0; sum < width; sum++) {\n    const count = chosen[sum]!\n    if (count === 0) continue\n    totalWays += count\n    const deviation = Math.abs(sum - shift)\n    if (deviation >= doubledDeviation) tailWays += count\n    if (deviation > maxDeviation) {\n      maxDeviation = deviation\n      extremeWays = count\n    } else if (deviation === maxDeviation) {\n      extremeWays += count\n    }\n  }\n  return { p: tailWays / totalWays, pFloor: extremeWays / totalWays }\n}\n\n/**\n * Exact conditional two-sided p for the paired signed-rank test.\n *\n * Convolves the observed doubled absolute midranks over all `2ⁿ` sign\n * assignments in `O(n·ΣR)`. Probabilities rather than counts keep `2ⁿ` off the\n * arithmetic. The null is symmetric about `n(n+1)/4`.\n */\nfunction exactSignedRankP(\n  doubledRanks: readonly number[],\n  doubledDeviation: number,\n): { p: number; pFloor: number } {\n  const maxSum = doubledRanks.reduce((sum, rank) => sum + rank, 0)\n  const width = maxSum + 1\n  let mass = new Float64Array(width)\n  mass[0] = 1\n  for (const rank of doubledRanks) {\n    const next = new Float64Array(width)\n    for (let sum = 0; sum < width; sum++) {\n      const probability = mass[sum]!\n      if (probability === 0) continue\n      next[sum]! += probability * 0.5\n      next[sum + rank]! += probability * 0.5\n    }\n    mass = next\n  }\n\n  const centre = maxSum / 2\n  let tail = 0\n  let extreme = 0\n  let maxDeviation = -1\n  for (let sum = 0; sum < width; sum++) {\n    const probability = mass[sum]!\n    if (probability === 0) continue\n    const deviation = Math.abs(sum - centre)\n    if (deviation >= doubledDeviation) tail += probability\n    if (deviation > maxDeviation) {\n      maxDeviation = deviation\n      extreme = probability\n    } else if (deviation === maxDeviation) {\n      extreme += probability\n    }\n  }\n  return { p: Math.min(1, tail), pFloor: Math.min(1, extreme) }\n}\n","/**\n * Matched-pair arm comparison — \"did the treatment arm beat the baseline arm\n * on the SAME work items?\"\n *\n * An arm A/B over run records is only trustworthy when it is PAIRED: the same\n * task/scenario/seed evaluated under both arms, compared item-by-item, so\n * inter-item difficulty variance cancels instead of masquerading as an arm\n * effect. This module owns the two error-prone steps every consumer otherwise\n * hand-rolls:\n *\n *   1. Pairing — matching rows across arms by `pairKey` (and by `repKey`\n *      within multi-rep items), with leftovers REPORTED rather than silently\n *      dropped (a silently unbalanced pairing biases every paired statistic\n *      downstream). Pairing never keys on outcome content: matching reps by\n *      their outcomes deflates discordant-pair counts and makes McNemar\n *      anti-conservative, so reps pair only by (`pairKey`, `repKey`) identity.\n *   2. Composition — feeding the matched pairs to the correct paired\n *      estimators that already live in `statistics`: `mcnemar` +\n *      `pairedRiskDifference` for pass/fail, `pairedBootstrap` +\n *      `wilcoxonSignedRank` for continuous metrics. No statistic is\n *      re-implemented here.\n *\n * The row shape is deliberately structural — callers project a `RunRecord`\n * (or any record) into `{ pairKey, arm, pass?, metrics? }`. Arm names are\n * caller-supplied parameters; the module ships no domain literal.\n */\n\nimport { ValidationError } from './errors'\nimport type { RunRecord } from './run-record'\nimport type { McNemarResult, PairedBootstrapOptions, PairedBootstrapResult } from './statistics'\nimport {\n  mcnemar,\n  pairedBootstrap,\n  pairedRiskDifference,\n  type RiskDifferenceResult,\n  wilcoxonSignedRank,\n} from './statistics'\n\n/** One arm observation of one work item. Structural on purpose: callers\n *  project their own record type (e.g. a `RunRecord`) into this shape. */\nexport interface PairedArmRow {\n  /** Matching key — rows sharing a `pairKey` across both arms form pairs\n   *  (typically the task/scenario/seed identity). */\n  pairKey: string\n  /** Rep identity within a `pairKey` (e.g. a seed or rep number). Required on\n   *  every row of a `pairKey` that has more than one rep in either arm; reps\n   *  then pair only on exact (`pairKey`, `repKey`) match, never on outcome\n   *  content. Optional when each arm has at most one rep of the item. */\n  repKey?: string\n  /** Arm label this row was produced under. */\n  arm: string\n  /** Binary outcome; omit when the comparison has no pass/fail notion. */\n  pass?: boolean\n  /** Named numeric measurements (score, cost, latency, …). */\n  metrics?: Record<string, number>\n}\n\nexport interface PairArmsOptions {\n  /** Arm treated as the control side of every pair. */\n  baselineArm: string\n  /** Arm treated as the treatment side of every pair. */\n  treatmentArm: string\n}\n\n/** One matched (baseline, treatment) observation of the same work item. */\nexport interface MatchedPair {\n  pairKey: string\n  /** 0-based position of this pair within its `pairKey`, ordered by sorted\n   *  `repKey` (always 0 for a single-rep item). The rep identity itself is on\n   *  the rows (`baseline.repKey` / `treatment.repKey`). */\n  repIndex: number\n  baseline: PairedArmRow\n  treatment: PairedArmRow\n}\n\nexport interface PairArmsResult {\n  /** Matched pairs, ordered by (`pairKey`, `repIndex`). */\n  pairs: MatchedPair[]\n  /** Baseline rows left without a treatment counterpart — reported, never\n   *  silently dropped. */\n  unpairedBaseline: PairedArmRow[]\n  /** Treatment rows left without a baseline counterpart. */\n  unpairedTreatment: PairedArmRow[]\n}\n\n/**\n * Match rows across two arms into (baseline, treatment) pairs by `pairKey`.\n *\n * A `pairKey` with at most one row per arm pairs directly, no `repKey`\n * needed. A `pairKey` with multiple reps in either arm requires `repKey` on\n * every one of its rows, and reps pair only on exact (`pairKey`, `repKey`)\n * match — pairing is keyed purely on row identity, never on outcome content\n * (outcome-keyed matching deflates discordant counts and biases McNemar), and\n * is therefore independent of input order. Reps whose `repKey` has no\n * counterpart in the other arm, and items present in only one arm, land in\n * the unpaired lists — reported, never truncated.\n *\n * Fail-loud: throws when either named arm has zero rows (an unknown arm\n * name would otherwise read as \"everything unpaired\"), when the two arm\n * names are equal, when a multi-rep `pairKey` has a row without `repKey`, or\n * when a (`pairKey`, arm) group repeats a `repKey` (the match would be\n * ambiguous).\n */\nexport function pairArms(rows: readonly PairedArmRow[], opts: PairArmsOptions): PairArmsResult {\n  const { baselineArm, treatmentArm } = opts\n  if (baselineArm === treatmentArm) {\n    throw new ValidationError(\n      `pairArms: baselineArm and treatmentArm are both '${baselineArm}' — an arm cannot be compared to itself`,\n    )\n  }\n\n  // arm → pairKey → rows\n  const byArm = new Map<string, Map<string, PairedArmRow[]>>()\n  const armsSeen = new Set<string>()\n  for (const row of rows) {\n    armsSeen.add(row.arm)\n    if (row.arm !== baselineArm && row.arm !== treatmentArm) continue\n    const byKey = byArm.get(row.arm) ?? new Map<string, PairedArmRow[]>()\n    const group = byKey.get(row.pairKey) ?? []\n    group.push(row)\n    byKey.set(row.pairKey, group)\n    byArm.set(row.arm, byKey)\n  }\n\n  for (const arm of [baselineArm, treatmentArm]) {\n    if (!byArm.has(arm)) {\n      const seen = [...armsSeen].sort().join(', ') || '<none>'\n      throw new ValidationError(`pairArms: no rows for arm '${arm}' (arms present: ${seen})`)\n    }\n  }\n\n  const baselineByKey = byArm.get(baselineArm)!\n  const treatmentByKey = byArm.get(treatmentArm)!\n\n  const allKeys = [...new Set([...baselineByKey.keys(), ...treatmentByKey.keys()])].sort()\n  const pairs: MatchedPair[] = []\n  const unpairedBaseline: PairedArmRow[] = []\n  const unpairedTreatment: PairedArmRow[] = []\n  for (const pairKey of allKeys) {\n    const b = baselineByKey.get(pairKey) ?? []\n    const t = treatmentByKey.get(pairKey) ?? []\n\n    if (b.length <= 1 && t.length <= 1) {\n      if (b.length === 1 && t.length === 1) {\n        const baseline = b[0]!\n        const treatment = t[0]!\n        if (baseline.repKey !== undefined || treatment.repKey !== undefined) {\n          if (\n            baseline.repKey === undefined ||\n            treatment.repKey === undefined ||\n            baseline.repKey !== treatment.repKey\n          ) {\n            unpairedBaseline.push(baseline)\n            unpairedTreatment.push(treatment)\n            continue\n          }\n        }\n        pairs.push({ pairKey, repIndex: 0, baseline, treatment })\n      } else {\n        unpairedBaseline.push(...b)\n        unpairedTreatment.push(...t)\n      }\n      continue\n    }\n\n    const bByRep = indexByRepKey(b, pairKey, baselineArm)\n    const tByRep = indexByRepKey(t, pairKey, treatmentArm)\n    const repKeys = [...new Set([...bByRep.keys(), ...tByRep.keys()])].sort()\n    let repIndex = 0\n    for (const repKey of repKeys) {\n      const baseline = bByRep.get(repKey)\n      const treatment = tByRep.get(repKey)\n      if (baseline !== undefined && treatment !== undefined) {\n        pairs.push({ pairKey, repIndex: repIndex++, baseline, treatment })\n      } else if (baseline !== undefined) {\n        unpairedBaseline.push(baseline)\n      } else if (treatment !== undefined) {\n        unpairedTreatment.push(treatment)\n      }\n    }\n  }\n\n  return { pairs, unpairedBaseline, unpairedTreatment }\n}\n\n/** Index a multi-rep (pairKey, arm) group by `repKey`, enforcing that every\n *  row carries one and that no repKey repeats within the group. */\nfunction indexByRepKey(\n  group: readonly PairedArmRow[],\n  pairKey: string,\n  arm: string,\n): Map<string, PairedArmRow> {\n  const byRep = new Map<string, PairedArmRow>()\n  for (const row of group) {\n    if (row.repKey === undefined) {\n      throw new ValidationError(\n        `pairArms: pairKey '${pairKey}' has multiple reps in an arm, but a row in arm '${arm}' ` +\n          `is missing repKey — multi-rep items require an explicit repKey on every row so reps ` +\n          `pair by identity (pairing reps by outcome or by index would bias the paired statistics)`,\n      )\n    }\n    if (byRep.has(row.repKey)) {\n      throw new ValidationError(\n        `pairArms: duplicate repKey '${row.repKey}' for pairKey '${pairKey}' in arm '${arm}' — ` +\n          `(pairKey, repKey) must uniquely identify a rep within an arm`,\n      )\n    }\n    byRep.set(row.repKey, row)\n  }\n  return byRep\n}\n\n/** Paired pass/fail comparison over the pairs where BOTH sides carry `pass`. */\nexport interface PairedCorrectness {\n  /** Discordant pairs where the treatment passed and the baseline failed. */\n  b10: number\n  /** Discordant pairs where the baseline passed and the treatment failed. */\n  b01: number\n  /** Exact McNemar significance over the paired outcomes (`b === b10`, `c === b01`). */\n  mcnemar: McNemarResult\n  /** Paired effect size: p(treatment) − p(baseline) with a paired-variance CI. */\n  riskDifference: RiskDifferenceResult\n}\n\n/** Paired delta summary for one named metric (delta = treatment − baseline). */\nexport interface PairedMetricDelta {\n  name: string\n  /** Pairs where BOTH sides carry a finite value for this metric. */\n  n: number\n  /** Pairs where at least one side does not carry the metric. */\n  nMissing: number\n  /** Median paired delta, or null when `n === 0`. */\n  medianDelta: number | null\n  /** Mean paired delta, or null when `n === 0`. */\n  meanDelta: number | null\n  /** Bootstrap CI on the paired delta (`pairedBootstrap`); null when\n   *  `n === 0` — a zero-width [0, 0] interval on no data would read as a\n   *  measured tight null. */\n  bootstrapCi: PairedBootstrapResult | null\n  /** Wilcoxon signed-rank test on the paired deltas; null when `n === 0`. */\n  wilcoxon: { w: number; p: number } | null\n}\n\nexport interface ComparePairedArmsOptions extends PairArmsOptions {\n  /** Metrics to compare. Default: every metric name observed on any matched\n   *  pair, sorted. A name that appears on no pair is still reported (with\n   *  `n = 0`) so a misspelled metric is visible instead of vanishing. */\n  metricNames?: string[]\n  /** Passed through to `pairedBootstrap` — set `seed` for reproducible CIs. */\n  bootstrap?: PairedBootstrapOptions\n}\n\nexport interface PairedArmsComparison {\n  nPairs: number\n  nUnpairedBaseline: number\n  nUnpairedTreatment: number\n  /** null when no matched pair carries `pass` on both sides — a pass/fail\n   *  verdict over rows that never measured pass/fail would be fabricated. */\n  correctness: PairedCorrectness | null\n  metricDeltas: PairedMetricDelta[]\n}\n\n/**\n * Full matched-pair arm comparison: pair via {@link pairArms}, then compose\n * the paired estimators from `statistics` over the matched pairs.\n *\n * Correctness uses only the pairs where both sides carry `pass` (`mcnemar.n`\n * is that subset's size); each metric uses only the pairs where both sides\n * carry a finite value for it, with the remainder counted in `nMissing`.\n * Deltas are treatment − baseline throughout.\n *\n * Fail-loud: inherits {@link pairArms}'s unknown-arm throw, and throws on a\n * non-finite metric value — silently treating corrupt telemetry as \"metric\n * absent\" would misreport it as missing coverage.\n */\nexport function comparePairedArms(\n  rows: readonly PairedArmRow[],\n  opts: ComparePairedArmsOptions,\n): PairedArmsComparison {\n  const { pairs, unpairedBaseline, unpairedTreatment } = pairArms(rows, opts)\n\n  let correctness: PairedCorrectness | null = null\n  const baselinePass: number[] = []\n  const treatmentPass: number[] = []\n  for (const pair of pairs) {\n    if (pair.baseline.pass === undefined || pair.treatment.pass === undefined) continue\n    baselinePass.push(pair.baseline.pass ? 1 : 0)\n    treatmentPass.push(pair.treatment.pass ? 1 : 0)\n  }\n  if (baselinePass.length > 0) {\n    const mc = mcnemar(baselinePass, treatmentPass)\n    correctness = {\n      b10: mc.b,\n      b01: mc.c,\n      mcnemar: mc,\n      riskDifference: pairedRiskDifference(baselinePass, treatmentPass),\n    }\n  }\n\n  const metricNames =\n    opts.metricNames ??\n    [\n      ...new Set(\n        pairs.flatMap((p) => [\n          ...Object.keys(p.baseline.metrics ?? {}),\n          ...Object.keys(p.treatment.metrics ?? {}),\n        ]),\n      ),\n    ].sort()\n\n  const metricDeltas: PairedMetricDelta[] = metricNames.map((name) => {\n    const before: number[] = []\n    const after: number[] = []\n    let nMissing = 0\n    for (const pair of pairs) {\n      const b = metricValue(pair.baseline, name)\n      const t = metricValue(pair.treatment, name)\n      if (b === undefined || t === undefined) {\n        nMissing++\n        continue\n      }\n      before.push(b)\n      after.push(t)\n    }\n    const bootstrapCi = before.length === 0 ? null : pairedBootstrap(before, after, opts.bootstrap)\n    return {\n      name,\n      n: before.length,\n      nMissing,\n      medianDelta: bootstrapCi?.median ?? null,\n      meanDelta: bootstrapCi?.mean ?? null,\n      bootstrapCi,\n      wilcoxon: before.length === 0 ? null : wilcoxonSignedRank(before, after),\n    }\n  })\n\n  return {\n    nPairs: pairs.length,\n    nUnpairedBaseline: unpairedBaseline.length,\n    nUnpairedTreatment: unpairedTreatment.length,\n    correctness,\n    metricDeltas,\n  }\n}\n\nexport interface MatchedRunRecordPair {\n  pairKey: string\n  repKey: string\n  baseline: RunRecord\n  treatment: RunRecord\n}\n\nexport interface PairRunRecordsResult {\n  pairs: MatchedRunRecordPair[]\n  unpairedBaseline: RunRecord[]\n  unpairedTreatment: RunRecord[]\n}\n\ninterface RunRecordArmRow extends PairedArmRow {\n  run: RunRecord\n  repKey: string\n}\n\n/**\n * Pair two RunRecord arms by the identity of the evaluated work:\n * `(experimentId, scenarioId, seed)`.\n *\n * Falling back to array order, candidate id, or experiment id can compare\n * different tasks and fabricate lift. Duplicate identities throw.\n */\nexport function pairRunRecords(\n  baselineRuns: readonly RunRecord[],\n  treatmentRuns: readonly RunRecord[],\n): PairRunRecordsResult {\n  const baselineRows = runRecordArmRows(baselineRuns, 'baseline')\n  const treatmentRows = runRecordArmRows(treatmentRuns, 'treatment')\n  validateRunRecordArmRows(baselineRows, 'baseline')\n  validateRunRecordArmRows(treatmentRows, 'treatment')\n  if (baselineRows.length === 0 || treatmentRows.length === 0) {\n    return {\n      pairs: [],\n      unpairedBaseline: baselineRows.map((row) => row.run),\n      unpairedTreatment: treatmentRows.map((row) => row.run),\n    }\n  }\n\n  const result = pairArms([...baselineRows, ...treatmentRows], {\n    baselineArm: 'baseline',\n    treatmentArm: 'treatment',\n  })\n  return {\n    pairs: result.pairs.map((pair) => {\n      const baseline = pair.baseline as RunRecordArmRow\n      const treatment = pair.treatment as RunRecordArmRow\n      return {\n        pairKey: pair.pairKey,\n        repKey: baseline.repKey,\n        baseline: baseline.run,\n        treatment: treatment.run,\n      }\n    }),\n    unpairedBaseline: result.unpairedBaseline.map((row) => (row as RunRecordArmRow).run),\n    unpairedTreatment: result.unpairedTreatment.map((row) => (row as RunRecordArmRow).run),\n  }\n}\n\nfunction runRecordArmRows(runs: readonly RunRecord[], arm: string): RunRecordArmRow[] {\n  return runs.map((run) => {\n    const scenarioId = run.scenarioId.trim()\n    if (!scenarioId) {\n      throw new ValidationError(\n        `pairRunRecords: run '${run.runId}' is missing scenarioId; paired comparisons require explicit scenario identity`,\n      )\n    }\n    return {\n      pairKey: JSON.stringify([run.experimentId, scenarioId]),\n      repKey: String(run.seed),\n      arm,\n      run,\n    }\n  })\n}\n\nfunction validateRunRecordArmRows(rows: readonly RunRecordArmRow[], arm: string): void {\n  const byPairKey = new Map<string, RunRecordArmRow[]>()\n  for (const row of rows) {\n    const group = byPairKey.get(row.pairKey) ?? []\n    group.push(row)\n    byPairKey.set(row.pairKey, group)\n  }\n  for (const [pairKey, group] of byPairKey) {\n    if (group.length > 1) indexByRepKey(group, pairKey, arm)\n  }\n}\n\nfunction metricValue(row: PairedArmRow, name: string): number | undefined {\n  const v = row.metrics?.[name]\n  if (v === undefined) return undefined\n  if (!Number.isFinite(v)) {\n    throw new ValidationError(\n      `comparePairedArms: non-finite value for metric '${name}' on pairKey '${row.pairKey}' (arm '${row.arm}'): ${v}`,\n    )\n  }\n  return 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package/dist/{paired-promotion-decision-CGzg0cI_.d.ts → paired-promotion-decision-DPsMQm-0.d.ts}

@@ -169,8 +169,9 @@ interface PairedPromotionDecisionOptions {
   resamples?: number;
   /** Deterministic bootstrap seed. Omitted ⇒ derived from the deltas. */
   seed?: number;
-  /** Caller-required paired observations. The exact test may impose a higher
-   *  minimum; the effective one is reported as `minimumPairs`. */
+  /** Caller-required paired observations. The test also imposes its own
+   *  minimum: bootstrap eligibility for a continuous mean, or the exact-test
+   *  minimum for binary and explicit median targets. This is not a power guarantee. */
   minPairs?: number;
   /**
    * `'mean'` (default) routes by SHAPE: a two-point (pass/fail) outcome on any
@@ -180,6 +181,11 @@ interface PairedPromotionDecisionOptions {
    * robustness on genuinely continuous outcomes and accept that cost.
    */
   statistic?: 'mean' | 'median';
+  /** Declared binary support {0, binaryScale}, including when all observations
+   *  are zero. Must be finite and positive; every observation must use that
+   *  support. Uses the risk-difference mean, so cannot accompany 'median'.
+   *  Omitted: infer binary support from observed positive values. */
+  binaryScale?: number;
 }
 interface PairedPromotionDecision {
   /** Paired observations supplied. */
@@ -189,7 +195,7 @@ interface PairedPromotionDecision {
   confidence: number;
   statistic: PairedDecisionStatistic;
   method: PairedDecisionMethod;
-  /** Common positive level of a two-point outcome ({0,1} ⇒ 1, {0,100} ⇒ 100),
+  /** Declared or inferred positive level ({0,1} ⇒ 1, {0,100} ⇒ 100),
    *  or null when the outcome is not two-point. Non-null is exactly the
    *  condition for the `paired_risk_difference` path, and it is the factor
    *  `delta` / `low` / `high` were rescaled by. */
@@ -211,11 +217,11 @@ interface PairedPromotionDecision {
   /** Exact one-sided sign-test p-value on the small-sample bootstrap path;
    *  null otherwise. */
   pValue: number | null;
-  /** Effective observation minimum after accounting for confidence. */
+  /** Effective observation minimum for the target, confidence, and caller floor. */
   minimumPairs: number;
   /** n >= minimumPairs. */
   sufficient: boolean;
-  /** The deciding interval is zero-width or non-finite — no evidence in either
+  /** The deciding interval is zero-width at numeric precision or non-finite — no evidence in either
    *  direction, so it cannot clear any threshold on evidence. */
   indeterminate: boolean;
   /** McNemar's exact test refuses at a non-negative threshold. */
@@ -235,7 +241,7 @@ interface PairedPromotionDecision {
 /** The shape facts that pick the estimator, without computing an interval. */
 interface PairedDecisionShape {
   statistic: PairedDecisionStatistic;
-  /** Common positive level of a two-point outcome; null when not two-point. */
+  /** Declared or inferred positive binary level; null off the binary path. */
   binaryScale: number | null;
   /** Exact-tie fraction over the paired deltas; null when there are no pairs. */
   tieFraction: number | null;
@@ -248,4 +254,4 @@ interface PairedDecisionShape {
 declare function decidePairedPromotion(before: number[], after: number[], options?: PairedPromotionDecisionOptions): PairedPromotionDecision;
 //#endregion
 export { pairedSignTest as _, PairedPromotionDecision as a, BOOTSTRAP_GATE_MIN_N as c, PairedBootstrapResult as d, PairedSignTestResult as f, pairedDeltaTieFraction as g, pairedBootstrap as h, PairedMcNemarEvidence as i, DECISION_PAIRED_DELTA_STATISTIC as l, SignTestAlternative as m, PairedDecisionShape as n, PairedPromotionDecisionOptions as o, PairedTTestResult as p, PairedDecisionStatistic as r, decidePairedPromotion as s, PairedDecisionMethod as t, PairedBootstrapOptions as u, pairedTTest as v };
-//# sourceMappingURL=paired-promotion-decision-CGzg0cI_.d.ts.map
+//# sourceMappingURL=paired-promotion-decision-DPsMQm-0.d.ts.map

package/dist/{paired-promotion-decision-CGzg0cI_.d.ts.map → paired-promotion-decision-DPsMQm-0.d.ts.map}

@@ -1 +1 @@
-{"version":3,"file":"paired-promotion-decision-CGzg0cI_.d.ts","names":[],"sources":["../src/statistics/paired-tests.ts","../src/paired-promotion-decision.ts"],"mappings":";;;;;;UAUiB;;EAEf;EACA;;EAEA;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;iBAiBc,YAAY,kBAAkB,kBAAkB;UA2B/C;;EAEf;;EAEA;;EAEA;;EAEA;;EAEA;;EAEA;;EAEA;;EAEA;;;;;;;;;;;;cAaW;UAEI;;EAEf;;EAEA;;EAEA;;;EAGA;;;;;;;;;;;;iBAac,gBACd,kBACA,iBACA,OAAM,yBACL;;KA0DS;;UAGK;;EAEf;;EAEA;;EAEA;;EAEA;;EAEA;;EAEA,aAAa;;EAEb;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;iBAgBc,eACd,gCACA,aAAa,sBACZ;;;iBAqCa,uBACd,QAAQ,mBACR,OAAO;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;cA4CI;;;;KC1OD;;KAMA;;UAGK;;EAEf;;EAEA;;EAEA;;EAEA;;UAGe;;;EAGf;;EAEA;;EAEA;;EAEA;;;EAGA;;;;;;;;EAQA;;UAGe;;EAEf;;EAEA;EACA;EACA,WAAW;EACX,QAAQ;;;;;EAKR;;EAEA;;EAEA;;EAEA;;EAEA;;;;EAIA,WAAW;;EAEX,SAAS;;;EAGT;;EAEA;;EAEA;;;EAGA;;EAEA;;EAEA;;;EAGA;;EAEA;;EAEA;;EAEA;;;UAIe;EACf,WAAW;;EAEX;;EAEA;;;;;;;iBA8Bc,sBACd,kBACA,iBACA,UAAS,iCACR"}
+{"version":3,"file":"paired-promotion-decision-DPsMQm-0.d.ts","names":[],"sources":["../src/statistics/paired-tests.ts","../src/paired-promotion-decision.ts"],"mappings":";;;;;;UAUiB;;EAEf;EACA;;EAEA;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;iBAiBc,YAAY,kBAAkB,kBAAkB;UA2B/C;;EAEf;;EAEA;;EAEA;;EAEA;;EAEA;;EAEA;;EAEA;;EAEA;;;;;;;;;;;;cAaW;UAEI;;EAEf;;EAEA;;EAEA;;;EAGA;;;;;;;;;;;;iBAac,gBACd,kBACA,iBACA,OAAM,yBACL;;KA0DS;;UAGK;;EAEf;;EAEA;;EAEA;;EAEA;;EAEA;;EAEA,aAAa;;EAEb;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;iBAgBc,eACd,gCACA,aAAa,sBACZ;;;iBAqCa,uBACd,QAAQ,mBACR,OAAO;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;cA4CI;;;;KC1OD;;KAMA;;UAGK;;EAEf;;EAEA;;EAEA;;EAEA;;UAGe;;;EAGf;;EAEA;;EAEA;;EAEA;;;;EAIA;;;;;;;;EAQA;;;;;EAKA;;UAGe;;EAEf;;EAEA;EACA;EACA,WAAW;EACX,QAAQ;;;;;EAKR;;EAEA;;EAEA;;EAEA;;EAEA;;;;EAIA,WAAW;;EAEX,SAAS;;;EAGT;;EAEA;;EAEA;;;EAGA;;EAEA;;EAEA;;;EAGA;;EAEA;;EAEA;;EAEA;;;UAIe;EACf,WAAW;;EAEX;;EAEA;;;;;;;iBAoDc,sBACd,kBACA,iBACA,UAAS,iCACR"}

package/dist/pipelines/index.js

@@ -1,4 +1,4 @@
-import { a as budgetBreachView, i as failureClusterView, n as computeToolUseMetrics, r as judgeAgreementView, t as toolWasteView } from "../tool-waste-B9tdWV6g.js";
+import { a as budgetBreachView, i as failureClusterView, n as computeToolUseMetrics, r as judgeAgreementView, t as toolWasteView } from "../tool-waste-C7MU9u1e.js";
 import { t as compareToBaseline } from "../baseline-BC-eBZ7U.js";
 import { a as isToolSpan } from "../schema-CSf6qWgZ.js";
 import { a as hasCapturedToolArgs, r as argHash, u as runMetricExtractor } from "../query-D1nLIKt7.js";

package/dist/{power-and-mde-B8F2RdcD.js → power-and-mde-BJOpt6pq.js}

@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
 import { s as ValidationError } from "./errors-Dngq5h35.js";
 import { s as zQuantile } from "./internal-BMFSR8Ns.js";
-import { u as normalCdf } from "./paired-arms-D4aeIHUy.js";
+import { u as normalCdf } from "./paired-arms-JSDcs2zx.js";
 //#region src/statistics/multiplicity.ts
 /**
 * Multiple-comparison corrections: family-wise error (Bonferroni, Holm) and
@@ -192,4 +192,4 @@ function mcnemarPower(opts) {
 //#endregion
 export { requiredSampleSize as a, holm as c, requiredPairedSampleSize as i, mcnemarRequiredN as n, benjaminiHochberg as o, pairedMde as r, bonferroni as s, mcnemarPower as t };
 
-//# sourceMappingURL=power-and-mde-B8F2RdcD.js.map
+//# sourceMappingURL=power-and-mde-BJOpt6pq.js.map