@tangle-network/agent-eval 0.175.0 → 0.176.0

package/dist/power-preflight-CFXm0Vjo.js

@@ -1,502 +0,0 @@
-import { g as pairedRiskDifferenceScore, h as pairedRiskDifferenceExact, p as pairedBinaryScale } from "./paired-arms-D4aeIHUy.js";
-import { a as pairedSignTest, i as pairedDeltaTieFraction, r as pairedBootstrap } from "./paired-tests-C8iCsioC.js";
-//#region src/paired-delta-test.ts
-/** Smallest all-positive sample that can clear a one-sided exact sign test. */
-function minimumPairsForPairedDeltaTest(confidence = .95) {
-	if (!Number.isFinite(confidence) || confidence <= 0 || confidence >= 1) throw new Error(`minimumPairsForPairedDeltaTest: confidence must be in (0,1), got ${confidence}`);
-	const oneSidedAlpha = (1 - confidence) / 2;
-	return Math.ceil(Math.log2(1 / oneSidedAlpha));
-}
-/**
-* Tests whether a paired candidate-minus-baseline delta clears a threshold.
-*
-* At 20 or more pairs, the percentile bootstrap lower bound carries the
-* decision. Below that point the interval is descriptive only, so the function
-* switches to a pre-registered one-sided exact sign test. The exact path is
-* deliberately conservative: it requires both a point estimate above the
-* threshold and enough consistently positive paired differences.
-*
-* ## A zero-width interval is never significant
-*
-* When every paired delta is identical the resample distribution is a point
-* mass and the interval collapses: `[0, 0]` when all pairs tie, `[g, g]` on n
-* identical deltas of g. Neither says the effect is certain — both say the
-* sample carries no information about how far the estimate could be wrong, and
-* `low > threshold` then answers on the point estimate alone. It fails in both
-* directions: `[0, 0]` clears every NEGATIVE threshold, which is how a
-* tie-dominated pass/fail comparison laundered a regression into a
-* noninferiority pass, and `[g, g]` clears every threshold below g with no
-* spread behind it. Under a bounded asymmetric null whose true mean paired
-* delta is exactly 0 — 2 % of pairs dropping by 1.0, the rest gaining 0.0204 —
-* every sample that misses the drop is exactly that shape, and deciding on
-* `low > 0` promoted 65.65 % of samples at n = 20 against a nominal 5 %.
-*
-* So `indeterminate` is reported and `significant` is false whenever the
-* interval has zero width, on BOTH paths: at small n the exact sign test is a
-* test of the MEDIAN and a zero-spread sample is precisely where it stops
-* saying anything about the mean the caller is thresholding.
-*
-* `threshold` may be negative — that is a noninferiority margin, and it is the
-* regime the zero-width hole is worst in. For a two-point (pass/fail) outcome
-* the percentile bootstrap is not a valid interval at a nonzero margin at all;
-* use {@link decidePairedPromotion}, which routes those to Tango's score
-* interval, rather than thresholding this function's bootstrap directly.
-*/
-function pairedDeltaTest(before, after, options = {}) {
-	const threshold = options.threshold ?? 0;
-	if (!Number.isFinite(threshold)) throw new Error(`pairedDeltaTest: threshold must be finite, got ${threshold}`);
-	const exactMinimum = minimumPairsForPairedDeltaTest(options.confidence ?? .95);
-	const requestedMinimum = options.minPairs ?? exactMinimum;
-	if (!Number.isInteger(requestedMinimum) || requestedMinimum < 1) throw new Error(`pairedDeltaTest: minPairs must be a positive integer, got ${requestedMinimum}`);
-	const minimumPairs = Math.max(requestedMinimum, exactMinimum);
-	const bootstrap = pairedBootstrap(before, after, options);
-	const sufficient = bootstrap.n >= minimumPairs;
-	const indeterminate = bootstrap.n > 0 && (!Number.isFinite(bootstrap.low) || !Number.isFinite(bootstrap.high) || bootstrap.low === bootstrap.high);
-	if (bootstrap.gateEligible) return {
-		bootstrap,
-		method: "bootstrap-ci",
-		pValue: null,
-		minimumPairs,
-		sufficient,
-		indeterminate,
-		significant: sufficient && !indeterminate && bootstrap.low > threshold
-	};
-	const exact = pairedSignTest(before.map((value, index) => after[index] - value - threshold), "greater");
-	const estimate = options.statistic === "mean" ? bootstrap.mean : bootstrap.median;
-	return {
-		bootstrap,
-		method: "exact-sign",
-		pValue: exact.pValue,
-		minimumPairs,
-		sufficient,
-		indeterminate,
-		significant: sufficient && !indeterminate && estimate > threshold && exact.pValue <= (1 - bootstrap.confidence) / 2
-	};
-}
-//#endregion
-//#region src/paired-promotion-decision.ts
-/**
-* @module
-* ONE rule for "does this paired interval clear a promotion threshold".
-*
-* The rule below was derived on `HeldOutGate` (#479) after the same estimator
-* bug shipped twice. It then turned out that a SECOND gate — the composable
-* `heldOutGate`, plus everything else routed through `heldoutSignificance` —
-* still carried the original defect, because the rule had been written into one
-* gate's method body rather than into a shared function. Two copies of a
-* statistical rule is how a defect survives in one of them, so there is now
-* exactly one copy and both gates call it.
-*
-* Three things the rule does that a bare `pairedBootstrap(...).low > threshold`
-* does not:
-*
-* 1. **Two-point (pass/fail) outcomes decide on Tango's SCORE interval.** On a
-*    pass/fail eval the paired delta vector is dominated by ties, so the
-*    bootstrap of the mean is a resample of a lattice with three atoms and its
-*    percentile interval is not valid at a nonzero margin. The score interval
-*    (`pairedRiskDifferenceScore`) re-estimates the nuisance loss rate under
-*    each hypothesised margin instead of fixing it at the observed value, which
-*    is the only construction that stays a confidence interval as the margin
-*    moves off zero — the regime every noninferiority threshold lives in.
-*    Measured on the composable gate before this change, at a true risk
-*    difference sitting exactly on the production caller's -0.05 margin and a
-*    nominal 5 %: 14.60 % false promotion at n = 40 and 10.10 % at n = 76.
-* 2. **McNemar's exact test holds a VETO at every non-negative threshold.**
-*    Redundant with the interval by construction and kept anyway, so that
-*    swapping the estimator for one without that duality cannot silently
-*    reintroduce "promotes what the exact test refuses". Witness: n = 6, b = 5,
-*    c = 0 — no exact argument reaches alpha = 0.05 with 5 discordant pairs
-*    (two-sided floor 2/2^5 = 0.0625), whatever an interval says. A NEGATIVE
-*    threshold is a noninferiority question, which McNemar's test of "no
-*    difference" is not the right test for, so the veto does not apply there.
-* 3. **A ZERO-WIDTH interval is refused, wherever it sits.** At [0, 0] it
-*    cannot tell a gain from a regression and clears every negative threshold.
-*    Away from zero it fails the opposite way: n identical positive deltas give
-*    [g, g], which clears threshold 0 on no spread at all. Both are an absence
-*    of evidence. Measured on the composable gate before this change, under a
-*    bounded asymmetric null whose true mean paired delta is exactly 0: 88.50 %
-*    false promotion at n = 6 and 65.65 % at n = 20 against a nominal 5 %.
-*
-* Orthogonal to the small-sample switch inside {@link pairedDeltaTest}: that
-* picks the TEST from the sample size (bootstrap CI at n >= 20, pre-registered
-* exact sign test below it), this picks the ESTIMATOR from the outcome's shape.
-* Both are needed — an exact sign test applied to a tie-pinned median is still
-* blind, and a mean bootstrap CI at n = 6 is still not a valid test.
-*/
-/**
-* Which estimator {@link decidePairedPromotion} would use on this data, and the
-* shape facts behind it — for callers that must report the shape on a path
-* where no interval is computed at all (an early rejection, or zero pairs).
-* Cheap: no bootstrap, no interval.
-*/
-function pairedDecisionShape(before, after, statistic = "mean") {
-	const tieFraction = before.length === 0 ? null : pairedDeltaTieFraction(before, after);
-	if (statistic === "median") return {
-		statistic: "median_bootstrap",
-		binaryScale: null,
-		tieFraction
-	};
-	const binaryScale = pairedBinaryScale(before, after);
-	if (binaryScale !== null) return {
-		statistic: "paired_risk_difference",
-		binaryScale,
-		tieFraction
-	};
-	return {
-		statistic: "mean_bootstrap",
-		binaryScale: null,
-		tieFraction
-	};
-}
-/**
-* Decide whether a paired candidate-minus-baseline delta clears a promotion
-* threshold. `before` is the baseline arm, `after` the candidate arm, paired by
-* position. Throws on unequal lengths.
-*/
-function decidePairedPromotion(before, after, options = {}) {
-	if (before.length !== after.length) throw new Error(`decidePairedPromotion: unequal sample sizes (${before.length} vs ${after.length})`);
-	const threshold = options.threshold ?? 0;
-	if (!Number.isFinite(threshold)) throw new Error(`decidePairedPromotion: threshold must be finite, got ${threshold}`);
-	const confidence = options.confidence ?? .95;
-	const exactMinimum = minimumPairsForPairedDeltaTest(confidence);
-	const requestedMinimum = options.minPairs ?? exactMinimum;
-	if (!Number.isInteger(requestedMinimum) || requestedMinimum < 1) throw new Error(`decidePairedPromotion: minPairs must be a positive integer, got ${requestedMinimum}`);
-	const minimumPairs = Math.max(requestedMinimum, exactMinimum);
-	const n = before.length;
-	const sufficient = n >= minimumPairs;
-	const { binaryScale, tieFraction } = pairedDecisionShape(before, after, options.statistic);
-	let core;
-	if (binaryScale !== null) {
-		const unitControl = before.map((v) => v / binaryScale);
-		const unitTreatment = after.map((v) => v / binaryScale);
-		const exact = pairedRiskDifferenceExact(unitControl, unitTreatment, confidence);
-		const score = pairedRiskDifferenceScore(unitControl, unitTreatment, confidence);
-		const low = score.lower * binaryScale;
-		core = {
-			statistic: "paired_risk_difference",
-			method: "score-interval",
-			delta: score.riskDifference * binaryScale,
-			low,
-			high: score.upper * binaryScale,
-			bootstrap: null,
-			mcnemar: {
-				b: exact.b,
-				c: exact.c,
-				nDiscordant: exact.nDiscordant,
-				pValue: exact.pValue
-			},
-			pValue: null,
-			clearsThreshold: low > threshold,
-			label: "success-rate",
-			methodDetail: ""
-		};
-	} else {
-		const bootstrapStatistic = options.statistic === "median" ? "median" : "mean";
-		const test = pairedDeltaTest(before, after, {
-			confidence,
-			resamples: options.resamples,
-			statistic: bootstrapStatistic,
-			seed: options.seed,
-			threshold,
-			minPairs: options.minPairs
-		});
-		const ci = test.bootstrap;
-		core = {
-			statistic: bootstrapStatistic === "mean" ? "mean_bootstrap" : "median_bootstrap",
-			method: test.method,
-			delta: bootstrapStatistic === "mean" ? ci.mean : ci.median,
-			low: ci.low,
-			high: ci.high,
-			bootstrap: ci,
-			mcnemar: null,
-			pValue: test.pValue,
-			clearsThreshold: test.significant,
-			label: bootstrapStatistic,
-			methodDetail: test.method === "exact-sign" ? ` Below ${test.minimumPairs} pairs the interval is descriptive only; the decision is the exact one-sided sign test, p=${fmt(test.pValue ?? 1)}.` : ""
-		};
-	}
-	const indeterminate = !Number.isFinite(core.low) || !Number.isFinite(core.high) || core.low === core.high;
-	const indeterminateCause = !indeterminate ? "" : tieFraction === 1 ? "every paired delta is an exact tie" : core.mcnemar !== null && core.mcnemar.nDiscordant === 0 ? "every pair is concordant (0 discordant pairs)" : `the ${core.label} CI collapsed to a point at ${fmt(core.low)}`;
-	const exactTestVetoes = core.mcnemar !== null && threshold >= 0 && !(core.mcnemar.pValue < 1 - confidence);
-	return {
-		n,
-		threshold,
-		confidence,
-		binaryScale,
-		tieFraction,
-		minimumPairs,
-		sufficient,
-		indeterminate,
-		indeterminateCause,
-		exactTestVetoes,
-		promote: sufficient && !indeterminate && core.clearsThreshold && !exactTestVetoes,
-		...core
-	};
-}
-function fmt(x) {
-	return x.toFixed(4);
-}
-//#endregion
-//#region src/campaign/gates/statistical-heldout.ts
-/**
-* Statistical held-out promotion machinery — the trustworthy core the
-* point-estimate `heldout-delta` gate lacked.
-*
-* The shipped false positive it prevents: a winner re-scored against the
-* baseline on the holdout read run-to-run model NOISE (e.g. 91 vs 95) as a
-* "+4 lift" and shipped, because the gate compared point estimates with no
-* confidence interval. Here we pair candidate vs baseline holdout observations
-* and bootstrap a CI on the paired delta — a candidate ships only when the CI
-* lower bound clears the effect-size threshold (the gain is real at the
-* confidence level, not noise), and is blocked when a critical dimension
-* (e.g. `hallucination_free` for a legal agent) significantly regresses even if
-* the net composite rose (anti-Goodhart).
-*
-* Two traps this module is built around (both produce a NEW false positive if
-* gotten wrong):
-*   1. PAIRING GRANULARITY — pairs by FULL `cellId` (`scenario:rep`), never by
-*      `scenarioId` (which averages reps away and destroys the within-pair
-*      variance reduction that makes a paired bootstrap tighter than unpaired).
-*      One paired observation per cell ⇒ reps multiply n.
-*   2. SCALE — a judge may emit composites/dimensions on [0,1] or 0-100. The
-*      threshold + tolerance are interpreted in the judge's NATIVE scale; the
-*      per-dimension tolerance auto-scales off the observed baseline magnitudes
-*      so `-0.10` on [0,1] doesn't silently become a no-op on a 0-100 dimension.
-*/
-/** Tie fraction at/above which a gate annotates its verdict with the tie share.
-*  Tie-domination of the median bites structurally at >= 0.5 (the median is then
-*  0 by construction); 0.4 is a softer warn threshold that flags a run APPROACHING
-*  that regime, so an operator sees it before the median goes fully blind. */
-const TIE_WARN_FRACTION = .4;
-/**
-* Pair candidate vs baseline holdout observations by FULL cellId. `select`
-* pulls the scalar from a cell's judge reports (composite, or a named
-* dimension); a cell contributes the mean of `select` across its judges. Cells
-* whose scenario is not in `scenarioIds`, or where `select` is undefined for
-* every judge on either side, are skipped on BOTH sides so the arrays stay
-* paired. Throws when the two maps disagree on which holdout cells exist — a
-* load-bearing invariant: the baseline + winner holdout campaigns run the same
-* scenarios with the same seed base, so their cellIds MUST align; a mismatch
-* means a silent pairing bug, not a soft fallback.
-*/
-function pairHoldout(candidate, baseline, scenarioIds, select) {
-	const cellValue = (byCell, cellId) => {
-		const scores = byCell.get(cellId);
-		if (!scores) return void 0;
-		const vals = [];
-		for (const s of Object.values(scores)) {
-			if (s.failed === true) throw new Error(`pairHoldout: cell '${cellId}' contains a failed judge score`);
-			const v = select(s);
-			if (typeof v === "number" && !Number.isFinite(v)) throw new Error(`pairHoldout: cell '${cellId}' contains a non-finite selected score`);
-			if (typeof v === "number") vals.push(v);
-		}
-		if (vals.length === 0) return void 0;
-		return vals.reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0) / vals.length;
-	};
-	const inScope = (cellId) => scenarioIds.has(cellId.split(":")[0] ?? "");
-	const candCells = [...candidate.keys()].filter(inScope).sort();
-	const baseCells = [...baseline.keys()].filter(inScope).sort();
-	if (candCells.length !== baseCells.length || candCells.some((c, i) => c !== baseCells[i])) throw new Error(`pairHoldout: candidate/baseline holdout cells do not align — candidate=[${candCells.join(",")}] baseline=[${baseCells.join(",")}]. Both holdout campaigns must run the same scenarios with the same seed base.`);
-	const before = [];
-	const after = [];
-	const cellIds = [];
-	for (const cellId of candCells) {
-		const b = cellValue(baseline, cellId);
-		const a = cellValue(candidate, cellId);
-		if (b === void 0 && a === void 0) continue;
-		if (b === void 0 || a === void 0) throw new Error(`pairHoldout: cell '${cellId}' has a selected score on only one arm`);
-		before.push(b);
-		after.push(a);
-		cellIds.push(cellId);
-	}
-	return {
-		before,
-		after,
-		cellIds
-	};
-}
-/**
-* Significance of the held-out composite lift: ship only when the lower bound
-* of the interval the outcome's shape ADMITS exceeds `deltaThreshold` (default
-* 0 ⇒ "confidently positive"). Interpret `deltaThreshold` in the judge's native
-* scale.
-*
-* The decision is delegated whole to {@link decidePairedPromotion}, the one
-* copy of the rule (`src/paired-promotion-decision.ts`), which `HeldOutGate`
-* also calls. That module's header carries the measurements; the short version
-* is three guards a bare `bootstrap.low > threshold` does not have:
-*
-*   - a two-point (pass/fail) outcome decides on Tango's SCORE interval, the
-*     only paired-binary construction that stays valid at a nonzero margin;
-*   - McNemar's exact test VETOES at any non-negative threshold;
-*   - a ZERO-WIDTH interval is refused rather than promoted, in either
-*     direction — [0,0] clears every negative threshold and [g,g] clears every
-*     threshold below g, and both are an absence of evidence, not a result.
-*
-* Measured on this function before those guards landed, at a nominal 5 %:
-* 14.60 % false promotion at n = 40 on a paired-binary noninferiority boundary,
-* and 88.50 % at n = 6 under a bounded asymmetric null whose true mean paired
-* delta is exactly 0.
-*
-* At small n, where the percentile bootstrap is descriptive only, a
-* pre-registered exact sign test still carries the bootstrap path.
-*/
-function heldoutSignificance(paired, opts = {}) {
-	const deltaThreshold = opts.deltaThreshold ?? 0;
-	const confidence = opts.confidence ?? .95;
-	const resamples = opts.resamples ?? 2e3;
-	const seed = opts.seed ?? 1337;
-	const statistic = opts.statistic ?? "mean";
-	const decision = decidePairedPromotion(paired.before, paired.after, {
-		confidence,
-		resamples,
-		statistic,
-		seed,
-		threshold: deltaThreshold,
-		minPairs: opts.minProductiveRuns
-	});
-	const bootstrap = decision.bootstrap ?? pairedBootstrap(paired.before, paired.after, {
-		confidence,
-		resamples,
-		statistic,
-		seed
-	});
-	const medianBootstrap = statistic === "median" ? bootstrap : pairedBootstrap(paired.before, paired.after, {
-		confidence,
-		resamples,
-		statistic: "median",
-		seed
-	});
-	const n = paired.before.length;
-	let ties = 0;
-	for (let i = 0; i < n; i += 1) {
-		const after = paired.after[i] ?? 0;
-		const before = paired.before[i] ?? 0;
-		if (Math.abs(after - before) < 1e-9) ties += 1;
-	}
-	const tieFraction = n === 0 ? 0 : ties / n;
-	return {
-		paired,
-		bootstrap,
-		medianBootstrap,
-		decision,
-		decisionStatistic: decision.statistic,
-		mcnemar: decision.mcnemar,
-		tieFraction,
-		n,
-		minimumRequired: decision.minimumPairs,
-		decisionMethod: decision.method,
-		pValue: decision.pValue,
-		significant: decision.promote,
-		fewRuns: !decision.sufficient
-	};
-}
-/** Detect the native scale of a set of scores: 0-100 when any magnitude clears
-*  1.5, else [0,1]. Used to auto-scale the regression tolerance so a default
-*  expressed for [0,1] is not silently a no-op on a 0-100 dimension. */
-function detectScale(values) {
-	return values.some((v) => Math.abs(v) > 1.5) ? 100 : 1;
-}
-/** Per-critical-dimension regression guard. For each dimension, pair the
-*  candidate vs baseline values by full cellId and bootstrap the paired delta;
-*  a dimension is "regressed" when the CI lower bound < −tolerance (conservative
-*  — blocks if the credible worst case exceeds tolerance, which is the right
-*  posture for safety dimensions like `hallucination_free`). When `tolerance`
-*  is omitted it auto-scales: 0.05 on [0,1], 5 on 0-100.
-*
-*  The interval comes from {@link decidePairedPromotion}, so a pass/fail
-*  dimension is judged on Tango's score interval rather than a percentile
-*  bootstrap of the mean — `tolerance` is a NONZERO margin, and the bootstrap
-*  is not a valid interval at one. That matters most here because this guard
-*  fails OPEN by construction: `tolerance` is positive, so an interval pinned at
-*  [0,0] never satisfies `low < −tolerance` and a real regression on a safety
-*  dimension would be reported as `regressed: false`. On the median it fails the
-*  same way for the same reason — when most pairs tie, which is automatic for a
-*  pass/fail dimension on {0,1} and on the 0-100 encoding `detectScale` exists
-*  to support, the median CI collapses to [0,0]. Pass `statistic: 'median'` to
-*  restore the pre-0.134 behaviour. */
-function dimensionRegressions(candidate, baseline, scenarioIds, criticalDimensions, opts = {}) {
-	const out = [];
-	for (const dim of criticalDimensions) {
-		const paired = pairHoldout(candidate, baseline, scenarioIds, (s) => s.dimensions[dim]);
-		if (paired.before.length === 0) continue;
-		const tolerance = opts.tolerance ?? .05 * detectScale([...paired.before, ...paired.after]);
-		const bootstrapStatistic = opts.statistic ?? "mean";
-		const shared = {
-			confidence: opts.confidence ?? .95,
-			resamples: opts.resamples ?? 2e3,
-			statistic: bootstrapStatistic,
-			seed: opts.seed ?? 1337
-		};
-		const guard = decidePairedPromotion(paired.before, paired.after, shared);
-		const regression = decidePairedPromotion(paired.after, paired.before, {
-			...shared,
-			threshold: tolerance
-		});
-		const bootstrap = guard.bootstrap ?? pairedBootstrap(paired.before, paired.after, shared);
-		out.push({
-			dimension: dim,
-			bootstrap,
-			bootstrapStatistic,
-			ci: {
-				low: guard.low,
-				high: guard.high
-			},
-			decisionStatistic: guard.statistic,
-			mcnemar: guard.mcnemar,
-			indeterminate: guard.indeterminate,
-			regressed: bootstrap.low < -tolerance || regression.promote,
-			tolerance,
-			n: paired.before.length
-		});
-	}
-	return out;
-}
-//#endregion
-//#region src/campaign/gates/power-preflight.ts
-/** Two-sided z for the common confidence levels; interpolation is overkill here. */
-function zFor(confidence) {
-	if (confidence >= .99) return 2.576;
-	if (confidence >= .95) return 1.96;
-	if (confidence >= .9) return 1.645;
-	return 1.282;
-}
-/** Estimate the minimum detectable lift a paired-holdout improvement run can
-*  ship at a given budget, from the baseline holdout composites — call it BEFORE
-*  spending a search to learn whether the effect you are hunting is even
-*  observable at this holdout size and worker variance. */
-function powerPreflight(opts) {
-	const composites = opts.baselineComposites.filter((v) => Number.isFinite(v));
-	if (composites.length < 3) throw new Error(`powerPreflight: need >= 3 finite baseline composites to estimate variance, got ${composites.length}`);
-	const deltaThreshold = opts.deltaThreshold ?? .05;
-	const confidence = opts.confidence ?? .95;
-	const n = opts.pairedN ?? composites.length;
-	if (n < 2) throw new Error(`powerPreflight: pairedN must be >= 2, got ${n}`);
-	const mean = composites.reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0) / composites.length;
-	const variance = composites.reduce((a, b) => a + (b - mean) * (b - mean), 0) / (composites.length - 1);
-	const sd = Math.sqrt(variance);
-	const z = zFor(confidence);
-	const mde = deltaThreshold + z * Math.SQRT2 * sd / Math.sqrt(n);
-	const scaleAssumed = composites.every((v) => v >= -.001 && v <= 1.5);
-	const headroom = Math.max(0, 1 - mean);
-	const underpowered = scaleAssumed && mde > headroom;
-	const sharedChannelCaveat = opts.sharedScorerChannel ? "Holdout and gate share one scoring channel: raising n/reps reduces only idiosyncratic noise — systematic judge bias remains and this MDE is a lower bound. Full debiasing needs an independent second scoring channel (different judge/benchmark family)." : void 0;
-	const recommendation = underpowered ? `UNDERPOWERED: minimum detectable lift ${mde.toFixed(3)} exceeds the ${headroom.toFixed(3)} headroom above the baseline (${mean.toFixed(3)}) — no achievable effect can ship at this budget. Raise paired n (scenarios x reps) to ~${Math.ceil((z * Math.SQRT2 * sd / Math.max(headroom - deltaThreshold, .01)) ** 2)} or reduce worker variance before searching.` : `Minimum detectable lift at n=${n}: ${mde.toFixed(3)} (baseline sd ${sd.toFixed(3)}). Effects smaller than this cannot clear the gate; budget the search for effects you believe exceed it.`;
-	return {
-		n,
-		sd,
-		mde,
-		baselineMean: mean,
-		headroom,
-		underpowered,
-		scaleAssumed,
-		deltaThreshold,
-		confidence,
-		...sharedChannelCaveat ? { sharedChannelCaveat } : {},
-		recommendation: sharedChannelCaveat ? `${recommendation} ${sharedChannelCaveat}` : recommendation
-	};
-}
-//#endregion
-export { heldoutSignificance as a, pairedDecisionShape as c, dimensionRegressions as i, minimumPairsForPairedDeltaTest as l, TIE_WARN_FRACTION as n, pairHoldout as o, detectScale as r, decidePairedPromotion as s, powerPreflight as t, pairedDeltaTest as u };
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-{"version":3,"file":"power-preflight-CFXm0Vjo.js","names":[],"sources":["../src/paired-delta-test.ts","../src/paired-promotion-decision.ts","../src/campaign/gates/statistical-heldout.ts","../src/campaign/gates/power-preflight.ts"],"sourcesContent":["import {\n  type PairedBootstrapOptions,\n  type PairedBootstrapResult,\n  pairedBootstrap,\n  pairedSignTest,\n} from './statistics'\n\nexport interface PairedDeltaTestOptions extends PairedBootstrapOptions {\n  /** Smallest candidate-minus-baseline delta that counts as improvement. Default 0. */\n  threshold?: number\n  /** Caller-required paired observations. The exact test may impose a higher minimum. */\n  minPairs?: number\n}\n\nexport interface PairedDeltaTestResult {\n  bootstrap: PairedBootstrapResult\n  method: 'bootstrap-ci' | 'exact-sign'\n  /** Exact one-sided p-value below the bootstrap minimum; otherwise null. */\n  pValue: number | null\n  /** Effective observation minimum after accounting for confidence. */\n  minimumPairs: number\n  sufficient: boolean\n  /**\n   * The bootstrap interval has zero width (or is non-finite), so it carries no\n   * information about how far the estimate could be wrong and cannot support a\n   * decision in either direction. See {@link pairedDeltaTest}.\n   */\n  indeterminate: boolean\n  significant: boolean\n}\n\n/** Smallest all-positive sample that can clear a one-sided exact sign test. */\nexport function minimumPairsForPairedDeltaTest(confidence = 0.95): number {\n  if (!Number.isFinite(confidence) || confidence <= 0 || confidence >= 1) {\n    throw new Error(\n      `minimumPairsForPairedDeltaTest: confidence must be in (0,1), got ${confidence}`,\n    )\n  }\n  const oneSidedAlpha = (1 - confidence) / 2\n  return Math.ceil(Math.log2(1 / oneSidedAlpha))\n}\n\n/**\n * Tests whether a paired candidate-minus-baseline delta clears a threshold.\n *\n * At 20 or more pairs, the percentile bootstrap lower bound carries the\n * decision. Below that point the interval is descriptive only, so the function\n * switches to a pre-registered one-sided exact sign test. The exact path is\n * deliberately conservative: it requires both a point estimate above the\n * threshold and enough consistently positive paired differences.\n *\n * ## A zero-width interval is never significant\n *\n * When every paired delta is identical the resample distribution is a point\n * mass and the interval collapses: `[0, 0]` when all pairs tie, `[g, g]` on n\n * identical deltas of g. Neither says the effect is certain — both say the\n * sample carries no information about how far the estimate could be wrong, and\n * `low > threshold` then answers on the point estimate alone. It fails in both\n * directions: `[0, 0]` clears every NEGATIVE threshold, which is how a\n * tie-dominated pass/fail comparison laundered a regression into a\n * noninferiority pass, and `[g, g]` clears every threshold below g with no\n * spread behind it. Under a bounded asymmetric null whose true mean paired\n * delta is exactly 0 — 2 % of pairs dropping by 1.0, the rest gaining 0.0204 —\n * every sample that misses the drop is exactly that shape, and deciding on\n * `low > 0` promoted 65.65 % of samples at n = 20 against a nominal 5 %.\n *\n * So `indeterminate` is reported and `significant` is false whenever the\n * interval has zero width, on BOTH paths: at small n the exact sign test is a\n * test of the MEDIAN and a zero-spread sample is precisely where it stops\n * saying anything about the mean the caller is thresholding.\n *\n * `threshold` may be negative — that is a noninferiority margin, and it is the\n * regime the zero-width hole is worst in. For a two-point (pass/fail) outcome\n * the percentile bootstrap is not a valid interval at a nonzero margin at all;\n * use {@link decidePairedPromotion}, which routes those to Tango's score\n * interval, rather than thresholding this function's bootstrap directly.\n */\nexport function pairedDeltaTest(\n  before: number[],\n  after: number[],\n  options: PairedDeltaTestOptions = {},\n): PairedDeltaTestResult {\n  const threshold = options.threshold ?? 0\n  if (!Number.isFinite(threshold)) {\n    throw new Error(`pairedDeltaTest: threshold must be finite, got ${threshold}`)\n  }\n  const confidence = options.confidence ?? 0.95\n  const exactMinimum = minimumPairsForPairedDeltaTest(confidence)\n  const requestedMinimum = options.minPairs ?? exactMinimum\n  if (!Number.isInteger(requestedMinimum) || requestedMinimum < 1) {\n    throw new Error(`pairedDeltaTest: minPairs must be a positive integer, got ${requestedMinimum}`)\n  }\n  const minimumPairs = Math.max(requestedMinimum, exactMinimum)\n  const bootstrap = pairedBootstrap(before, after, options)\n  const sufficient = bootstrap.n >= minimumPairs\n  // A point-mass resample distribution is an absence of evidence, not a\n  // certainty, and it is the shape that clears every negative threshold. Both\n  // paths refuse it: see the \"zero-width\" section of this function's docs.\n  const indeterminate =\n    bootstrap.n > 0 &&\n    (!Number.isFinite(bootstrap.low) ||\n      !Number.isFinite(bootstrap.high) ||\n      bootstrap.low === bootstrap.high)\n\n  if (bootstrap.gateEligible) {\n    return {\n      bootstrap,\n      method: 'bootstrap-ci',\n      pValue: null,\n      minimumPairs,\n      sufficient,\n      indeterminate,\n      significant: sufficient && !indeterminate && bootstrap.low > threshold,\n    }\n  }\n\n  const differences = before.map((value, index) => after[index]! - value - threshold)\n  const exact = pairedSignTest(differences, 'greater')\n  const estimate = options.statistic === 'mean' ? bootstrap.mean : bootstrap.median\n  return {\n    bootstrap,\n    method: 'exact-sign',\n    pValue: exact.pValue,\n    minimumPairs,\n    sufficient,\n    indeterminate,\n    significant:\n      sufficient &&\n      !indeterminate &&\n      estimate > threshold &&\n      exact.pValue <= (1 - bootstrap.confidence) / 2,\n  }\n}\n","/**\n * @module\n * ONE rule for \"does this paired interval clear a promotion threshold\".\n *\n * The rule below was derived on `HeldOutGate` (#479) after the same estimator\n * bug shipped twice. It then turned out that a SECOND gate — the composable\n * `heldOutGate`, plus everything else routed through `heldoutSignificance` —\n * still carried the original defect, because the rule had been written into one\n * gate's method body rather than into a shared function. Two copies of a\n * statistical rule is how a defect survives in one of them, so there is now\n * exactly one copy and both gates call it.\n *\n * Three things the rule does that a bare `pairedBootstrap(...).low > threshold`\n * does not:\n *\n * 1. **Two-point (pass/fail) outcomes decide on Tango's SCORE interval.** On a\n *    pass/fail eval the paired delta vector is dominated by ties, so the\n *    bootstrap of the mean is a resample of a lattice with three atoms and its\n *    percentile interval is not valid at a nonzero margin. The score interval\n *    (`pairedRiskDifferenceScore`) re-estimates the nuisance loss rate under\n *    each hypothesised margin instead of fixing it at the observed value, which\n *    is the only construction that stays a confidence interval as the margin\n *    moves off zero — the regime every noninferiority threshold lives in.\n *    Measured on the composable gate before this change, at a true risk\n *    difference sitting exactly on the production caller's -0.05 margin and a\n *    nominal 5 %: 14.60 % false promotion at n = 40 and 10.10 % at n = 76.\n * 2. **McNemar's exact test holds a VETO at every non-negative threshold.**\n *    Redundant with the interval by construction and kept anyway, so that\n *    swapping the estimator for one without that duality cannot silently\n *    reintroduce \"promotes what the exact test refuses\". Witness: n = 6, b = 5,\n *    c = 0 — no exact argument reaches alpha = 0.05 with 5 discordant pairs\n *    (two-sided floor 2/2^5 = 0.0625), whatever an interval says. A NEGATIVE\n *    threshold is a noninferiority question, which McNemar's test of \"no\n *    difference\" is not the right test for, so the veto does not apply there.\n * 3. **A ZERO-WIDTH interval is refused, wherever it sits.** At [0, 0] it\n *    cannot tell a gain from a regression and clears every negative threshold.\n *    Away from zero it fails the opposite way: n identical positive deltas give\n *    [g, g], which clears threshold 0 on no spread at all. Both are an absence\n *    of evidence. Measured on the composable gate before this change, under a\n *    bounded asymmetric null whose true mean paired delta is exactly 0: 88.50 %\n *    false promotion at n = 6 and 65.65 % at n = 20 against a nominal 5 %.\n *\n * Orthogonal to the small-sample switch inside {@link pairedDeltaTest}: that\n * picks the TEST from the sample size (bootstrap CI at n >= 20, pre-registered\n * exact sign test below it), this picks the ESTIMATOR from the outcome's shape.\n * Both are needed — an exact sign test applied to a tie-pinned median is still\n * blind, and a mean bootstrap CI at n = 6 is still not a valid test.\n */\n\nimport { minimumPairsForPairedDeltaTest, pairedDeltaTest } from './paired-delta-test'\nimport {\n  type PairedBootstrapResult,\n  pairedBinaryScale,\n  pairedDeltaTieFraction,\n  pairedRiskDifferenceExact,\n  pairedRiskDifferenceScore,\n} from './statistics'\n\n/** Which paired estimator produced the deciding interval. */\nexport type PairedDecisionStatistic =\n  | 'paired_risk_difference'\n  | 'mean_bootstrap'\n  | 'median_bootstrap'\n\n/** Which test carried the decision, given the estimator and the sample size. */\nexport type PairedDecisionMethod = 'score-interval' | 'bootstrap-ci' | 'exact-sign'\n\n/** McNemar's exact paired-binary evidence, on the two-point path only. */\nexport interface PairedMcNemarEvidence {\n  /** Discordant pairs the treatment won. */\n  b: number\n  /** Discordant pairs the control won. */\n  c: number\n  /** b + c — the only pairs carrying information. */\n  nDiscordant: number\n  /** Two-sided exact p-value. */\n  pValue: number\n}\n\nexport interface PairedPromotionDecisionOptions {\n  /** Smallest candidate-minus-baseline delta that counts as improvement, in the\n   *  caller's native units. May be negative (a noninferiority margin). Default 0. */\n  threshold?: number\n  /** Confidence level. Default 0.95. */\n  confidence?: number\n  /** Bootstrap resamples, on the paths where a bootstrap decides. Default 2000. */\n  resamples?: number\n  /** Deterministic bootstrap seed. Omitted ⇒ derived from the deltas. */\n  seed?: number\n  /** Caller-required paired observations. The exact test may impose a higher\n   *  minimum; the effective one is reported as `minimumPairs`. */\n  minPairs?: number\n  /**\n   * `'mean'` (default) routes by SHAPE: a two-point (pass/fail) outcome on any\n   * encoding decides on the score interval, everything else on the mean\n   * bootstrap. `'median'` forces the median bootstrap on every input, including\n   * shapes where it is structurally blind — kept for callers who want outlier\n   * robustness on genuinely continuous outcomes and accept that cost.\n   */\n  statistic?: 'mean' | 'median'\n}\n\nexport interface PairedPromotionDecision {\n  /** Paired observations supplied. */\n  n: number\n  /** Threshold the interval was judged against, native units. */\n  threshold: number\n  confidence: number\n  statistic: PairedDecisionStatistic\n  method: PairedDecisionMethod\n  /** Common positive level of a two-point outcome ({0,1} ⇒ 1, {0,100} ⇒ 100),\n   *  or null when the outcome is not two-point. Non-null is exactly the\n   *  condition for the `paired_risk_difference` path, and it is the factor\n   *  `delta` / `low` / `high` were rescaled by. */\n  binaryScale: number | null\n  /** Exact-tie fraction over the paired deltas; null when there are no pairs. */\n  tieFraction: number | null\n  /** Point estimate of the DECIDING statistic, in the caller's native units. */\n  delta: number\n  /** Lower bound of the DECIDING interval, native units. */\n  low: number\n  /** Upper bound of the DECIDING interval, native units. */\n  high: number\n  /** The bootstrap that decided, or null when the score interval did. Callers\n   *  that need a bootstrap as a diagnostic on the two-point path compute their\n   *  own — it is not computed here, so the binary path costs no resamples. */\n  bootstrap: PairedBootstrapResult | null\n  /** McNemar's exact evidence, or null off the two-point path. */\n  mcnemar: PairedMcNemarEvidence | null\n  /** Exact one-sided sign-test p-value on the small-sample bootstrap path;\n   *  null otherwise. */\n  pValue: number | null\n  /** Effective observation minimum after accounting for confidence. */\n  minimumPairs: number\n  /** n >= minimumPairs. */\n  sufficient: boolean\n  /** The deciding interval is zero-width or non-finite — no evidence in either\n   *  direction, so it cannot clear any threshold on evidence. */\n  indeterminate: boolean\n  /** McNemar's exact test refuses at a non-negative threshold. */\n  exactTestVetoes: boolean\n  /** The deciding interval clears the threshold, ignoring the other two guards. */\n  clearsThreshold: boolean\n  /** `sufficient && !indeterminate && clearsThreshold && !exactTestVetoes` —\n   *  the whole rule. */\n  promote: boolean\n  /** What `delta` measures, for a reason string. */\n  label: 'success-rate' | 'mean' | 'median'\n  /** Why a zero-width interval is zero-width; empty when it is not. */\n  indeterminateCause: string\n  /** Sentence naming the test when the exact sign test decided; else empty. */\n  methodDetail: string\n}\n\n/** The shape facts that pick the estimator, without computing an interval. */\nexport interface PairedDecisionShape {\n  statistic: PairedDecisionStatistic\n  /** Common positive level of a two-point outcome; null when not two-point. */\n  binaryScale: number | null\n  /** Exact-tie fraction over the paired deltas; null when there are no pairs. */\n  tieFraction: number | null\n}\n\n/**\n * Which estimator {@link decidePairedPromotion} would use on this data, and the\n * shape facts behind it — for callers that must report the shape on a path\n * where no interval is computed at all (an early rejection, or zero pairs).\n * Cheap: no bootstrap, no interval.\n */\nexport function pairedDecisionShape(\n  before: number[],\n  after: number[],\n  statistic: 'mean' | 'median' = 'mean',\n): PairedDecisionShape {\n  const tieFraction = before.length === 0 ? null : pairedDeltaTieFraction(before, after)\n  if (statistic === 'median') {\n    return { statistic: 'median_bootstrap', binaryScale: null, tieFraction }\n  }\n  const binaryScale = pairedBinaryScale(before, after)\n  if (binaryScale !== null) {\n    return { statistic: 'paired_risk_difference', binaryScale, tieFraction }\n  }\n  return { statistic: 'mean_bootstrap', binaryScale: null, tieFraction }\n}\n\n/**\n * Decide whether a paired candidate-minus-baseline delta clears a promotion\n * threshold. `before` is the baseline arm, `after` the candidate arm, paired by\n * position. Throws on unequal lengths.\n */\nexport function decidePairedPromotion(\n  before: number[],\n  after: number[],\n  options: PairedPromotionDecisionOptions = {},\n): PairedPromotionDecision {\n  if (before.length !== after.length) {\n    throw new Error(\n      `decidePairedPromotion: unequal sample sizes (${before.length} vs ${after.length})`,\n    )\n  }\n  const threshold = options.threshold ?? 0\n  if (!Number.isFinite(threshold)) {\n    throw new Error(`decidePairedPromotion: threshold must be finite, got ${threshold}`)\n  }\n  const confidence = options.confidence ?? 0.95\n  const exactMinimum = minimumPairsForPairedDeltaTest(confidence)\n  const requestedMinimum = options.minPairs ?? exactMinimum\n  if (!Number.isInteger(requestedMinimum) || requestedMinimum < 1) {\n    throw new Error(\n      `decidePairedPromotion: minPairs must be a positive integer, got ${requestedMinimum}`,\n    )\n  }\n  const minimumPairs = Math.max(requestedMinimum, exactMinimum)\n  const n = before.length\n  const sufficient = n >= minimumPairs\n  const { binaryScale, tieFraction } = pairedDecisionShape(before, after, options.statistic)\n\n  let core: {\n    statistic: PairedDecisionStatistic\n    method: PairedDecisionMethod\n    delta: number\n    low: number\n    high: number\n    bootstrap: PairedBootstrapResult | null\n    mcnemar: PairedMcNemarEvidence | null\n    pValue: number | null\n    clearsThreshold: boolean\n    label: PairedPromotionDecision['label']\n    methodDetail: string\n  }\n\n  if (binaryScale !== null) {\n    // Normalise the two-point encoding to {0,1} so the estimators see the\n    // pass/fail structure, then rescale the answer back into the caller's\n    // native units — the threshold is read in the units of the scores, so a\n    // 0-100 pass/fail dimension must be gated in points, not in a rate.\n    const unitControl = before.map((v) => v / binaryScale)\n    const unitTreatment = after.map((v) => v / binaryScale)\n    // TWO estimators with different jobs, because no single one does both.\n    // `exact` is the authority on RD = 0 and supplies the veto; its\n    // Clopper-Pearson interval conditions on the discordant count and is\n    // therefore NOT a confidence interval at a nonzero margin. `score` is\n    // Tango's, which is.\n    const exact = pairedRiskDifferenceExact(unitControl, unitTreatment, confidence)\n    const score = pairedRiskDifferenceScore(unitControl, unitTreatment, confidence)\n    const low = score.lower * binaryScale\n    core = {\n      statistic: 'paired_risk_difference',\n      method: 'score-interval',\n      delta: score.riskDifference * binaryScale,\n      low,\n      high: score.upper * binaryScale,\n      bootstrap: null,\n      mcnemar: {\n        b: exact.b,\n        c: exact.c,\n        nDiscordant: exact.nDiscordant,\n        pValue: exact.pValue,\n      },\n      pValue: null,\n      clearsThreshold: low > threshold,\n      label: 'success-rate',\n      methodDetail: '',\n    }\n  } else {\n    const bootstrapStatistic = options.statistic === 'median' ? 'median' : 'mean'\n    const test = pairedDeltaTest(before, after, {\n      confidence,\n      resamples: options.resamples,\n      statistic: bootstrapStatistic,\n      seed: options.seed,\n      threshold,\n      minPairs: options.minPairs,\n    })\n    const ci = test.bootstrap\n    core = {\n      statistic: bootstrapStatistic === 'mean' ? 'mean_bootstrap' : 'median_bootstrap',\n      method: test.method,\n      delta: bootstrapStatistic === 'mean' ? ci.mean : ci.median,\n      low: ci.low,\n      high: ci.high,\n      bootstrap: ci,\n      mcnemar: null,\n      pValue: test.pValue,\n      clearsThreshold: test.significant,\n      label: bootstrapStatistic,\n      methodDetail:\n        test.method === 'exact-sign'\n          ? ` Below ${test.minimumPairs} pairs the interval is descriptive only;` +\n            ` the decision is the exact one-sided sign test, p=${fmt(test.pValue ?? 1)}.`\n          : '',\n    }\n  }\n\n  const indeterminate =\n    !Number.isFinite(core.low) || !Number.isFinite(core.high) || core.low === core.high\n  const indeterminateCause = !indeterminate\n    ? ''\n    : tieFraction === 1\n      ? 'every paired delta is an exact tie'\n      : core.mcnemar !== null && core.mcnemar.nDiscordant === 0\n        ? 'every pair is concordant (0 discordant pairs)'\n        : `the ${core.label} CI collapsed to a point at ${fmt(core.low)}`\n  // Only at a non-negative threshold: a negative threshold asks a\n  // noninferiority question, which McNemar's test of \"no difference\" does not\n  // answer.\n  const exactTestVetoes =\n    core.mcnemar !== null && threshold >= 0 && !(core.mcnemar.pValue < 1 - confidence)\n\n  return {\n    n,\n    threshold,\n    confidence,\n    binaryScale,\n    tieFraction,\n    minimumPairs,\n    sufficient,\n    indeterminate,\n    indeterminateCause,\n    exactTestVetoes,\n    promote: sufficient && !indeterminate && core.clearsThreshold && !exactTestVetoes,\n    ...core,\n  }\n}\n\nfunction fmt(x: number): string {\n  return x.toFixed(4)\n}\n","/**\n * Statistical held-out promotion machinery — the trustworthy core the\n * point-estimate `heldout-delta` gate lacked.\n *\n * The shipped false positive it prevents: a winner re-scored against the\n * baseline on the holdout read run-to-run model NOISE (e.g. 91 vs 95) as a\n * \"+4 lift\" and shipped, because the gate compared point estimates with no\n * confidence interval. Here we pair candidate vs baseline holdout observations\n * and bootstrap a CI on the paired delta — a candidate ships only when the CI\n * lower bound clears the effect-size threshold (the gain is real at the\n * confidence level, not noise), and is blocked when a critical dimension\n * (e.g. `hallucination_free` for a legal agent) significantly regresses even if\n * the net composite rose (anti-Goodhart).\n *\n * Two traps this module is built around (both produce a NEW false positive if\n * gotten wrong):\n *   1. PAIRING GRANULARITY — pairs by FULL `cellId` (`scenario:rep`), never by\n *      `scenarioId` (which averages reps away and destroys the within-pair\n *      variance reduction that makes a paired bootstrap tighter than unpaired).\n *      One paired observation per cell ⇒ reps multiply n.\n *   2. SCALE — a judge may emit composites/dimensions on [0,1] or 0-100. The\n *      threshold + tolerance are interpreted in the judge's NATIVE scale; the\n *      per-dimension tolerance auto-scales off the observed baseline magnitudes\n *      so `-0.10` on [0,1] doesn't silently become a no-op on a 0-100 dimension.\n */\n\nimport {\n  decidePairedPromotion,\n  type PairedDecisionMethod,\n  type PairedDecisionStatistic,\n  type PairedMcNemarEvidence,\n  type PairedPromotionDecision,\n} from '../../paired-promotion-decision'\nimport {\n  DECISION_PAIRED_DELTA_STATISTIC,\n  type PairedBootstrapResult,\n  pairedBootstrap,\n} from '../../statistics'\nimport type { JudgeScore } from '../types'\n\n/** Tie fraction at/above which a gate annotates its verdict with the tie share.\n *  Tie-domination of the median bites structurally at >= 0.5 (the median is then\n *  0 by construction); 0.4 is a softer warn threshold that flags a run APPROACHING\n *  that regime, so an operator sees it before the median goes fully blind. */\nexport const TIE_WARN_FRACTION = 0.4\n\nexport interface PairedHoldout {\n  /** Baseline scalar per paired cell (same order as `after`/`cellIds`). */\n  before: number[]\n  /** Candidate scalar per paired cell. */\n  after: number[]\n  /** The full cellIds (`scenario:rep`) that paired, in order. */\n  cellIds: string[]\n}\n\n/**\n * Pair candidate vs baseline holdout observations by FULL cellId. `select`\n * pulls the scalar from a cell's judge reports (composite, or a named\n * dimension); a cell contributes the mean of `select` across its judges. Cells\n * whose scenario is not in `scenarioIds`, or where `select` is undefined for\n * every judge on either side, are skipped on BOTH sides so the arrays stay\n * paired. Throws when the two maps disagree on which holdout cells exist — a\n * load-bearing invariant: the baseline + winner holdout campaigns run the same\n * scenarios with the same seed base, so their cellIds MUST align; a mismatch\n * means a silent pairing bug, not a soft fallback.\n */\nexport function pairHoldout(\n  candidate: Map<string, Record<string, JudgeScore>>,\n  baseline: Map<string, Record<string, JudgeScore>>,\n  scenarioIds: Set<string>,\n  select: (s: JudgeScore) => number | undefined,\n): PairedHoldout {\n  const cellValue = (\n    byCell: Map<string, Record<string, JudgeScore>>,\n    cellId: string,\n  ): number | undefined => {\n    const scores = byCell.get(cellId)\n    if (!scores) return undefined\n    const vals: number[] = []\n    for (const s of Object.values(scores)) {\n      if (s.failed === true) {\n        throw new Error(`pairHoldout: cell '${cellId}' contains a failed judge score`)\n      }\n      const v = select(s)\n      if (typeof v === 'number' && !Number.isFinite(v)) {\n        throw new Error(`pairHoldout: cell '${cellId}' contains a non-finite selected score`)\n      }\n      if (typeof v === 'number') vals.push(v)\n    }\n    if (vals.length === 0) return undefined\n    return vals.reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0) / vals.length\n  }\n\n  const inScope = (cellId: string) => scenarioIds.has(cellId.split(':')[0] ?? '')\n  const candCells = [...candidate.keys()].filter(inScope).sort()\n  const baseCells = [...baseline.keys()].filter(inScope).sort()\n  // Alignment invariant — the holdout campaigns share scenarios + seed, so the\n  // cell sets must be identical. Differ ⇒ a real pairing bug; fail loud.\n  if (candCells.length !== baseCells.length || candCells.some((c, i) => c !== baseCells[i])) {\n    throw new Error(\n      `pairHoldout: candidate/baseline holdout cells do not align — ` +\n        `candidate=[${candCells.join(',')}] baseline=[${baseCells.join(',')}]. ` +\n        `Both holdout campaigns must run the same scenarios with the same seed base.`,\n    )\n  }\n\n  const before: number[] = []\n  const after: number[] = []\n  const cellIds: string[] = []\n  for (const cellId of candCells) {\n    const b = cellValue(baseline, cellId)\n    const a = cellValue(candidate, cellId)\n    // A scalar absent on both sides means that dimension was not scored. A\n    // one-sided absence is asymmetric evidence loss, never a row to discard.\n    if (b === undefined && a === undefined) continue\n    if (b === undefined || a === undefined) {\n      throw new Error(`pairHoldout: cell '${cellId}' has a selected score on only one arm`)\n    }\n    before.push(b)\n    after.push(a)\n    cellIds.push(cellId)\n  }\n  return { before, after, cellIds }\n}\n\nexport interface HeldoutSignificance {\n  paired: PairedHoldout\n  /**\n   * The paired bootstrap on the requested statistic (MEAN by default — see the\n   * tie note on `heldoutSignificance`).\n   *\n   * DIAGNOSTIC, not necessarily the interval the verdict keyed on. On a\n   * two-point (pass/fail) outcome the decision routes to Tango's score interval\n   * instead, because a percentile bootstrap of the mean over a three-atom\n   * lattice is not a valid interval at a nonzero margin. Read\n   * `decision.low`/`decision.high` for the interval that actually decided, and\n   * `decisionStatistic` for which one it is.\n   */\n  bootstrap: PairedBootstrapResult\n  /** The MEDIAN paired-delta bootstrap, reported as a diagnostic. When many\n   *  scenarios are tied (both sides solve them), the median is pinned near 0\n   *  regardless of the mean lift — comparing the two exposes tie-domination. */\n  medianBootstrap: PairedBootstrapResult\n  /**\n   * The full promotion decision: which estimator the outcome's shape admits,\n   * the interval it produced, McNemar's exact veto on the two-point path, and\n   * whether the interval was zero-width (no evidence in either direction). The\n   * single source of `significant`.\n   */\n  decision: PairedPromotionDecision\n  /** Which paired estimator the verdict was decided on. */\n  decisionStatistic: PairedDecisionStatistic\n  /** McNemar's exact evidence on the two-point path; null otherwise. */\n  mcnemar: PairedMcNemarEvidence | null\n  /** Fraction of paired observations that are exact ties (|delta| < 1e-9). A\n   *  high tie fraction is WHY a median-based gate would have missed a real lift;\n   *  it is the observability the tie fix adds. */\n  tieFraction: number\n  /** n paired observations. */\n  n: number\n  /** Effective minimum after applying the bootstrap's hard statistical floor. */\n  minimumRequired: number\n  /** Statistical method that carried the decision. */\n  decisionMethod: PairedDecisionMethod\n  /** Exact one-sided p-value on the small-sample path; otherwise null. */\n  pValue: number | null\n  /** True iff n >= minimumRequired, the DECIDING interval has nonzero width,\n   *  its lower bound clears the threshold, and McNemar's exact test does not\n   *  veto at a non-negative threshold. */\n  significant: boolean\n  /** Set when n < minimumRequired — too little evidence to claim significance. */\n  fewRuns: boolean\n}\n\nexport interface HeldoutSignificanceOptions {\n  deltaThreshold?: number\n  minProductiveRuns?: number\n  confidence?: number\n  resamples?: number\n  /** Fixed by default for a deterministic, reproducible gate verdict. */\n  seed?: number\n  statistic?: 'mean' | 'median'\n}\n\n/**\n * Significance of the held-out composite lift: ship only when the lower bound\n * of the interval the outcome's shape ADMITS exceeds `deltaThreshold` (default\n * 0 ⇒ \"confidently positive\"). Interpret `deltaThreshold` in the judge's native\n * scale.\n *\n * The decision is delegated whole to {@link decidePairedPromotion}, the one\n * copy of the rule (`src/paired-promotion-decision.ts`), which `HeldOutGate`\n * also calls. That module's header carries the measurements; the short version\n * is three guards a bare `bootstrap.low > threshold` does not have:\n *\n *   - a two-point (pass/fail) outcome decides on Tango's SCORE interval, the\n *     only paired-binary construction that stays valid at a nonzero margin;\n *   - McNemar's exact test VETOES at any non-negative threshold;\n *   - a ZERO-WIDTH interval is refused rather than promoted, in either\n *     direction — [0,0] clears every negative threshold and [g,g] clears every\n *     threshold below g, and both are an absence of evidence, not a result.\n *\n * Measured on this function before those guards landed, at a nominal 5 %:\n * 14.60 % false promotion at n = 40 on a paired-binary noninferiority boundary,\n * and 88.50 % at n = 6 under a bounded asymmetric null whose true mean paired\n * delta is exactly 0.\n *\n * At small n, where the percentile bootstrap is descriptive only, a\n * pre-registered exact sign test still carries the bootstrap path.\n */\nexport function heldoutSignificance(\n  paired: PairedHoldout,\n  opts: HeldoutSignificanceOptions = {},\n): HeldoutSignificance {\n  const deltaThreshold = opts.deltaThreshold ?? 0\n  const confidence = opts.confidence ?? 0.95\n  const resamples = opts.resamples ?? 2000\n  const seed = opts.seed ?? 1337\n  // DEFAULT to the MEAN paired delta, not the median. The median is destroyed by\n  // TIES: whenever both baseline and candidate solve a holdout scenario (a common\n  // case once the agent is decent — and INCREASINGLY common as you add holdout\n  // scenarios for statistical power), that scenario contributes delta 0. When\n  // >=50% of paired cells are ties the median is pinned at 0 regardless of a large,\n  // consistent lift on the rest, and the gate holds a genuinely better candidate.\n  // (Measured live, supervisor-lab run 6: 40 cells, 20 ties, MEAN +0.177, MEDIAN 0\n  // → false hold. Doubling the holdout for \"power\" made it WORSE by adding ties.)\n  // The mean equals the reported aggregate lift, ties correctly contribute 0\n  // without dominating, and it is the textbook paired-comparison estimator; the\n  // median is kept as a reported diagnostic. Callers wanting outlier-robustness at\n  // the cost of tie-blindness can still pass `statistic: 'median'`.\n  const statistic = opts.statistic ?? 'mean'\n  const decision = decidePairedPromotion(paired.before, paired.after, {\n    confidence,\n    resamples,\n    statistic,\n    seed,\n    threshold: deltaThreshold,\n    minPairs: opts.minProductiveRuns,\n  })\n  // `decision.bootstrap` is null exactly when the score interval decided, so\n  // the requested-statistic bootstrap is computed here for the diagnostic\n  // field. Same two bootstraps as before on every path.\n  const bootstrap =\n    decision.bootstrap ??\n    pairedBootstrap(paired.before, paired.after, { confidence, resamples, statistic, seed })\n  const medianBootstrap =\n    statistic === 'median'\n      ? bootstrap\n      : pairedBootstrap(paired.before, paired.after, {\n          confidence,\n          resamples,\n          statistic: 'median',\n          seed,\n        })\n  const n = paired.before.length\n  let ties = 0\n  for (let i = 0; i < n; i += 1) {\n    const after = paired.after[i] ?? 0\n    const before = paired.before[i] ?? 0\n    if (Math.abs(after - before) < 1e-9) ties += 1\n  }\n  const tieFraction = n === 0 ? 0 : ties / n\n  return {\n    paired,\n    bootstrap,\n    medianBootstrap,\n    decision,\n    decisionStatistic: decision.statistic,\n    mcnemar: decision.mcnemar,\n    tieFraction,\n    n,\n    minimumRequired: decision.minimumPairs,\n    decisionMethod: decision.method,\n    pValue: decision.pValue,\n    significant: decision.promote,\n    fewRuns: !decision.sufficient,\n  }\n}\n\nexport interface DimensionRegression {\n  dimension: string\n  /** Paired bootstrap on (candidate − baseline). DIAGNOSTIC on a pass/fail\n   *  dimension, where `ci` carries the interval that decided instead. */\n  bootstrap: PairedBootstrapResult\n  /** Which paired statistic `bootstrap.low` is the lower bound of. `'mean'`\n   *  unless the caller asked for the median. `bootstrap.median` still carries\n   *  the median point estimate either way. */\n  bootstrapStatistic: 'median' | 'mean'\n  /** The interval `regressed` was decided on, in the dimension's native units. */\n  ci: { low: number; high: number }\n  /** Which estimator produced `ci`. */\n  decisionStatistic: PairedDecisionStatistic\n  /** McNemar's exact evidence on a pass/fail dimension; null otherwise. */\n  mcnemar: PairedMcNemarEvidence | null\n  /** `ci` has zero width — no evidence in either direction. */\n  indeterminate: boolean\n  /** True iff the candidate may have regressed this dimension by more than\n   *  tolerance: the lower bound of the DECIDING interval on (candidate −\n   *  baseline) is below −tolerance, OR the exact small-sample test proves a drop\n   *  past tolerance. */\n  regressed: boolean\n  tolerance: number\n  n: number\n}\n\n/** Detect the native scale of a set of scores: 0-100 when any magnitude clears\n *  1.5, else [0,1]. Used to auto-scale the regression tolerance so a default\n *  expressed for [0,1] is not silently a no-op on a 0-100 dimension. */\nexport function detectScale(values: number[]): 1 | 100 {\n  return values.some((v) => Math.abs(v) > 1.5) ? 100 : 1\n}\n\n/** Per-critical-dimension regression guard. For each dimension, pair the\n *  candidate vs baseline values by full cellId and bootstrap the paired delta;\n *  a dimension is \"regressed\" when the CI lower bound < −tolerance (conservative\n *  — blocks if the credible worst case exceeds tolerance, which is the right\n *  posture for safety dimensions like `hallucination_free`). When `tolerance`\n *  is omitted it auto-scales: 0.05 on [0,1], 5 on 0-100.\n *\n *  The interval comes from {@link decidePairedPromotion}, so a pass/fail\n *  dimension is judged on Tango's score interval rather than a percentile\n *  bootstrap of the mean — `tolerance` is a NONZERO margin, and the bootstrap\n *  is not a valid interval at one. That matters most here because this guard\n *  fails OPEN by construction: `tolerance` is positive, so an interval pinned at\n *  [0,0] never satisfies `low < −tolerance` and a real regression on a safety\n *  dimension would be reported as `regressed: false`. On the median it fails the\n *  same way for the same reason — when most pairs tie, which is automatic for a\n *  pass/fail dimension on {0,1} and on the 0-100 encoding `detectScale` exists\n *  to support, the median CI collapses to [0,0]. Pass `statistic: 'median'` to\n *  restore the pre-0.134 behaviour. */\nexport function dimensionRegressions(\n  candidate: Map<string, Record<string, JudgeScore>>,\n  baseline: Map<string, Record<string, JudgeScore>>,\n  scenarioIds: Set<string>,\n  criticalDimensions: string[],\n  opts: {\n    tolerance?: number\n    confidence?: number\n    resamples?: number\n    seed?: number\n    /** Paired statistic the CI is computed on. Default `'mean'` — see\n     *  {@link DECISION_PAIRED_DELTA_STATISTIC} for why the median is not. */\n    statistic?: 'mean' | 'median'\n  } = {},\n): DimensionRegression[] {\n  const out: DimensionRegression[] = []\n  for (const dim of criticalDimensions) {\n    const paired = pairHoldout(candidate, baseline, scenarioIds, (s) => s.dimensions[dim])\n    if (paired.before.length === 0) continue // dimension not scored on this judge\n    const tolerance = opts.tolerance ?? 0.05 * detectScale([...paired.before, ...paired.after])\n    const bootstrapStatistic = opts.statistic ?? DECISION_PAIRED_DELTA_STATISTIC\n    const shared = {\n      confidence: opts.confidence ?? 0.95,\n      resamples: opts.resamples ?? 2000,\n      statistic: bootstrapStatistic,\n      seed: opts.seed ?? 1337,\n    }\n    const guard = decidePairedPromotion(paired.before, paired.after, shared)\n    const regression = decidePairedPromotion(paired.after, paired.before, {\n      ...shared,\n      threshold: tolerance,\n    })\n    const bootstrap = guard.bootstrap ?? pairedBootstrap(paired.before, paired.after, shared)\n    out.push({\n      dimension: dim,\n      bootstrap,\n      bootstrapStatistic,\n      ci: { low: guard.low, high: guard.high },\n      decisionStatistic: guard.statistic,\n      mcnemar: guard.mcnemar,\n      indeterminate: guard.indeterminate,\n      // Fires on EITHER burden of proof — see `floorBreached` in\n      // `promotion-policy.ts` for the same rule and the reasoning. The CI arm\n      // is the contract this interface and `default-production-gate`'s reason\n      // string both state (\"CI.low < -tolerance\"), read off the DECIDING\n      // interval; the exact-test arm adds the small-sample path where the\n      // bootstrap interval is descriptive only.\n      // The credible-worst-case arm stays on the BOOTSTRAP — see the same\n      // decision in `floorBreached` (`promotion-policy.ts`). On a pass/fail\n      // dimension the score interval is ±z²/(n+z²) even when every pair is\n      // concordant, so reading the floor off it would flag an unchanged safety\n      // dimension as regressed at any realistic n. The PROVEN-drop arm does use\n      // the shared rule, which is what closes the fail-open hole that mattered:\n      // a genuine pass/fail regression is now judged on an interval valid at\n      // the nonzero `tolerance`, instead of a bootstrap that is pinned wherever\n      // ties dominate.\n      regressed: bootstrap.low < -tolerance || regression.promote,\n      tolerance,\n      n: paired.before.length,\n    })\n  }\n  return out\n}\n","/**\n * Power preflight — \"can this budget detect the effect you are hunting?\"\n *\n * The failure it prevents (measured, twice): a live prompt-improvement campaign ran\n * 333 sandbox cells over 5.6 hours and produced a +0.08 holdout lift the ship gate\n * (paired bootstrap, CI.low > 0.05) could not distinguish from zero — because at\n * that holdout size and worker variance the MINIMUM DETECTABLE lift was larger than\n * any effect a prompt change plausibly produces. The budget was spent learning what\n * a 30-second calculation on the baseline cells already knew. No eval framework we\n * know of surfaces this; every underpowered improvement run everywhere ends in an\n * uninformative \"hold\".\n *\n * Model: the ship rule is `CI.low(paired Δ) > deltaThreshold`. Approximating the\n * bootstrap CI as normal, `CI.low ≈ effect − z·sd_Δ/√n`, so the smallest shippable\n * true effect is `MDE = deltaThreshold + z·sd_Δ/√n`. The paired-delta SD is unknown\n * before the candidate exists; we bound it by the zero-correlation case\n * `sd_Δ ≤ √2·sd_baseline` — a CONSERVATIVE (upper) MDE, which is the correct\n * direction for a warning. Pairing is per cell (`scenario:rep`), so reps multiply n.\n *\n * Standalone by design: feed it any baseline composites (a `gate:'none'` run, a\n * live-proof table) BEFORE budgeting the real search; `selfImprove` also attaches\n * it to every result and warns when the run was structurally unable to ship.\n */\n\nexport interface PowerPreflightOptions {\n  /** Per-cell baseline composites on the HOLDOUT scenarios (one per scenario:rep cell). */\n  baselineComposites: number[]\n  /** Paired observations the budgeted comparison will produce\n   *  (holdout scenarios × reps). Defaults to `baselineComposites.length`. */\n  pairedN?: number\n  /** The ship gate's effect-size threshold. Default 0.05 (defaultProductionGate). */\n  deltaThreshold?: number\n  /** CI confidence the gate uses. Default 0.95. */\n  confidence?: number\n  /** True when the holdout is scored by the SAME judge/scorer family as the gate\n   *  (selfImprove's default composition — one judge scores everything). Under a\n   *  shared channel, raising paired n reduces only the IDIOSYNCRATIC noise share;\n   *  systematic judge bias is untouched, so the MDE here is a lower bound and the\n   *  only full debiaser is an independent second scoring channel\n   *  (recursive-self-improvement S1c, closed form in EXP-023 P0). Default false. */\n  sharedScorerChannel?: boolean\n}\n\nexport interface PowerPreflight {\n  /** Paired observations the comparison will have. */\n  n: number\n  /** Baseline per-cell composite standard deviation (the variance the effect must beat). */\n  sd: number\n  /** Minimum detectable lift: the smallest TRUE effect the gate could ship at this budget. */\n  mde: number\n  /** Baseline holdout composite mean. */\n  baselineMean: number\n  /** Headroom to a perfect 1.0 composite (the largest achievable lift on a [0,1] judge). */\n  headroom: number\n  /** True when even the largest achievable effect (headroom) is below the MDE —\n   *  the run is structurally unable to ship regardless of proposal quality.\n   *  Only asserted for [0,1]-scaled judges (see `scaleAssumed`). */\n  underpowered: boolean\n  /** True when composites look [0,1]-scaled; headroom/underpowered are only\n   *  meaningful under that convention (0-100 judges get mde/sd/n but no verdict). */\n  scaleAssumed: boolean\n  deltaThreshold: number\n  confidence: number\n  /** Set when the holdout shares the gate's scoring channel: more cells cannot\n   *  buy back systematic judge bias — treat the MDE as a lower bound. */\n  sharedChannelCaveat?: string\n  /** One actionable sentence for humans and logs. */\n  recommendation: string\n}\n\n/** Two-sided z for the common confidence levels; interpolation is overkill here. */\nfunction zFor(confidence: number): number {\n  if (confidence >= 0.99) return 2.576\n  if (confidence >= 0.95) return 1.96\n  if (confidence >= 0.9) return 1.645\n  return 1.282\n}\n\n/** Estimate the minimum detectable lift a paired-holdout improvement run can\n *  ship at a given budget, from the baseline holdout composites — call it BEFORE\n *  spending a search to learn whether the effect you are hunting is even\n *  observable at this holdout size and worker variance. */\nexport function powerPreflight(opts: PowerPreflightOptions): PowerPreflight {\n  const composites = opts.baselineComposites.filter((v) => Number.isFinite(v))\n  if (composites.length < 3) {\n    throw new Error(\n      `powerPreflight: need >= 3 finite baseline composites to estimate variance, got ${composites.length}`,\n    )\n  }\n  const deltaThreshold = opts.deltaThreshold ?? 0.05\n  const confidence = opts.confidence ?? 0.95\n  const n = opts.pairedN ?? composites.length\n  if (n < 2) throw new Error(`powerPreflight: pairedN must be >= 2, got ${n}`)\n\n  const mean = composites.reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0) / composites.length\n  const variance =\n    composites.reduce((a, b) => a + (b - mean) * (b - mean), 0) / (composites.length - 1)\n  const sd = Math.sqrt(variance)\n  const z = zFor(confidence)\n  const mde = deltaThreshold + (z * Math.SQRT2 * sd) / Math.sqrt(n)\n\n  const scaleAssumed = composites.every((v) => v >= -0.001 && v <= 1.5)\n  const headroom = Math.max(0, 1 - mean)\n  const underpowered = scaleAssumed && mde > headroom\n\n  const sharedChannelCaveat = opts.sharedScorerChannel\n    ? 'Holdout and gate share one scoring channel: raising n/reps reduces only idiosyncratic noise — systematic judge bias remains and this MDE is a lower bound. Full debiasing needs an independent second scoring channel (different judge/benchmark family).'\n    : undefined\n\n  const recommendation = underpowered\n    ? `UNDERPOWERED: minimum detectable lift ${mde.toFixed(3)} exceeds the ${headroom.toFixed(3)} headroom above the baseline (${mean.toFixed(3)}) — no achievable effect can ship at this budget. Raise paired n (scenarios x reps) to ~${Math.ceil(((z * Math.SQRT2 * sd) / Math.max(headroom - deltaThreshold, 0.01)) ** 2)} or reduce worker variance before searching.`\n    : `Minimum detectable lift at n=${n}: ${mde.toFixed(3)} (baseline sd ${sd.toFixed(3)}). Effects smaller than this cannot clear the gate; budget the search for effects you believe exceed it.`\n\n  return {\n    n,\n    sd,\n    mde,\n    baselineMean: mean,\n    headroom,\n    underpowered,\n    scaleAssumed,\n    deltaThreshold,\n    confidence,\n    ...(sharedChannelCaveat ? { sharedChannelCaveat } : {}),\n    recommendation: sharedChannelCaveat\n      ? `${recommendation} ${sharedChannelCaveat}`\n      : recommendation,\n  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