@tangle-network/agent-eval 0.150.1 → 0.161.0

package/dist/{matrix-DrVnRp4G.d.ts → matrix-eXKRMHnL.d.ts}

@@ -1,46 +1,7 @@
 import { p as CostProvenance } from "./cost-ledger-DbQdN3nO.js";
-import { w as JudgeScore } from "./types-DdFNuyxQ.js";
+import { w as JudgeScore } from "./types-D4s7Z6nq.js";
 import { o as MatrixResult } from "./index-D_P7Ye43.js";
 import { AgentProfile } from "@tangle-network/agent-interface";
-//#region src/multishot/judges.d.ts
-declare const DEFAULT_JUDGE_MODEL = "openai/gpt-4o-mini";
-interface JudgeDimension {
-  /** JSON field name + score key. */
-  key: string;
-  /** Description shown in the judge's user prompt. */
-  description: string;
-}
-interface JudgeConfig<TInput> {
-  /** Display name (for trace + log). */
-  name: string;
-  /** Model used for this judge. */
-  model?: string;
-  /** 0-10 scored dimensions. */
-  dimensions: JudgeDimension[];
-  /** Judge system prompt — sets persona + JSON-only constraint. */
-  systemPrompt: string;
-  /** Build the user prompt from the typed input. Must include "Respond with
-   *  ONLY this JSON: { ... }" listing each dimension key. */
-  buildPrompt: (input: TInput) => string;
-  /** Optional model + api overrides. */
-  apiKey?: string;
-  baseUrl?: string;
-  /** Maximum output tokens for the judge response. Defaults to 1500. */
-  maxTokens?: number;
-}
-interface JudgeRunResult {
-  /** Semantic result; failed scores remain non-throwing so matrix aggregation can exclude them. */
-  score: JudgeScore;
-  /** Cost of the completed call, separate from diagnostic provider metadata. */
-  cost: CostProvenance;
-}
-declare function runJudge<TInput>(judge: JudgeConfig<TInput>, input: TInput): Promise<JudgeRunResult>;
-/** Convenience: stringified dimension list for inclusion in a judge prompt.
- *  Returns lines like `- audience_fit: Does this match what the audience cares about? (0-10)`. */
-declare function renderDimensions(dims: readonly JudgeDimension[]): string;
-/** Convenience: build the "Respond with ONLY this JSON" footer for a judge prompt. */
-declare function renderJsonFooter(dims: readonly JudgeDimension[]): string;
-//#endregion
 //#region src/multishot/types.d.ts
 interface MultishotMessage {
   role: 'user' | 'assistant' | 'tool';
@@ -115,19 +76,23 @@ interface MultishotTransportResponse {
     completion_tokens?: number;
   };
   /** Actual spend for this call. When omitted, the loop meters cost from
-   *  `usage` via the per-model router estimator (estimateRouterCost). */
+   *  `usage` via the per-model estimator (estimateMultishotCost). */
   costUsd?: number;
+  /** Model identity the provider reported, when the transport observed one.
+   *  Omitted means unreported, and the requested model is used for
+   *  attribution — which is not proof that model answered. */
+  model?: string;
 }
-/** Execution seam for one leg of the multishot loop. When provided, it
- *  replaces the internal router HTTP call for that leg — the loop still owns
- *  turn scheduling, tool dispatch, transcript capture, and cost metering.
- *  agent-eval has no dependency on agent-runtime; adapt agent-runtime's
- *  resolveAgentBackend (or any sandbox/cli-bridge/router client) into this
- *  signature product-side. */
+/** Execution seam for one leg of the multishot loop. The caller owns model
+ *  execution: agent-eval issues no provider request and holds no credential.
+ *  The loop still owns turn scheduling, tool dispatch, transcript capture, and
+ *  cost metering. agent-eval has no dependency on agent-runtime; adapt
+ *  agent-runtime's `profileChatClient` (or any sandbox, bridge, or router
+ *  client) into this signature product-side. */
 type MultishotTransport = (req: MultishotTransportRequest) => Promise<MultishotTransportResponse>;
 type MultishotToolExecutor = (args: Record<string, unknown>, ctx: {
-  apiKey: string;
-  baseUrl: string;
+  /** Caller-owned execution seam for the specialist leg this tool runs. */
+  transport: MultishotTransport;
   signal?: AbortSignal;
 }) => Promise<{
   content: string;
@@ -181,6 +146,45 @@ declare class MultishotShotResultError extends Error {
  *  fields are checked only when present. */
 declare function assertMultishotShotResult(value: unknown): asserts value is MultishotResult;
 //#endregion
+//#region src/multishot/judges.d.ts
+declare const DEFAULT_JUDGE_MODEL = "openai/gpt-4o-mini";
+interface JudgeDimension {
+  /** JSON field name + score key. */
+  key: string;
+  /** Description shown in the judge's user prompt. */
+  description: string;
+}
+interface JudgeConfig<TInput> {
+  /** Display name (for trace + log). */
+  name: string;
+  /** Caller-owned execution for this judge's call. agent-eval issues no
+   *  provider request and holds no credential. */
+  transport: MultishotTransport;
+  /** Model used for this judge. */
+  model?: string;
+  /** 0-10 scored dimensions. */
+  dimensions: JudgeDimension[];
+  /** Judge system prompt — sets persona + JSON-only constraint. */
+  systemPrompt: string;
+  /** Build the user prompt from the typed input. Must include "Respond with
+   *  ONLY this JSON: { ... }" listing each dimension key. */
+  buildPrompt: (input: TInput) => string;
+  /** Maximum output tokens for the judge response. Defaults to 1500. */
+  maxTokens?: number;
+}
+interface JudgeRunResult {
+  /** Semantic result; failed scores remain non-throwing so matrix aggregation can exclude them. */
+  score: JudgeScore;
+  /** Cost of the completed call, separate from diagnostic provider metadata. */
+  cost: CostProvenance;
+}
+declare function runJudge<TInput>(judge: JudgeConfig<TInput>, input: TInput): Promise<JudgeRunResult>;
+/** Convenience: stringified dimension list for inclusion in a judge prompt.
+ *  Returns lines like `- audience_fit: Does this match what the audience cares about? (0-10)`. */
+declare function renderDimensions(dims: readonly JudgeDimension[]): string;
+/** Convenience: build the "Respond with ONLY this JSON" footer for a judge prompt. */
+declare function renderJsonFooter(dims: readonly JudgeDimension[]): string;
+//#endregion
 //#region src/multishot/multishot.d.ts
 interface RunMultishotOptions<TPersona extends MultishotPersona> {
   profile: AgentProfile;
@@ -209,18 +213,16 @@ interface RunMultishotOptions<TPersona extends MultishotPersona> {
   driverMaxTokens?: number;
   /** Maximum tool calls the agent may dispatch inside one assistant turn. */
   maxToolDispatches?: number;
-  /** Execution seam for the agent leg. When provided, every agent inference
-   *  step goes through this function instead of the router HTTP call; the
-   *  string levers (agentModel, apiKey, baseUrl) stop applying to that leg.
-   *  apiKey/baseUrl are still resolved for tool executors and any leg
-   *  without an injected transport. */
-  agentTransport?: MultishotTransport;
-  /** Execution seam for the simulated-user driver leg (symmetric to
-   *  agentTransport). Driver model fallback rotation still applies — the
-   *  transport receives each candidate model in turn. */
-  driverTransport?: MultishotTransport;
-  apiKey?: string;
-  baseUrl?: string;
+  /** Caller-owned execution for the agent leg. Every agent inference step
+   *  runs through this function; `agentModel` names the model it receives. */
+  agentTransport: MultishotTransport;
+  /** Caller-owned execution for the simulated-user driver leg. Driver model
+   *  fallback rotation still applies — the transport receives each candidate
+   *  model in turn. */
+  driverTransport: MultishotTransport;
+  /** Caller-owned execution for the specialist leg the tool executors run.
+   *  Defaults to `agentTransport`. */
+  toolTransport?: MultishotTransport;
   signal?: AbortSignal;
 }
 /** One multishot shot — the conversation engine `runMultishotMatrix` invokes
@@ -339,12 +341,15 @@ interface RunMultishotMatrixOptions<TPersona extends MultishotPersona> {
   driverMaxTokens?: number;
   /** Maximum output tokens for each judge response. */
   judgeMaxTokens?: number;
-  /** Execution seam for the agent leg of every cell — replaces the router
-   *  HTTP call when provided (see RunMultishotOptions.agentTransport).
-   *  Judges are unaffected; configure those via MultishotJudges. */
-  agentTransport?: MultishotTransport;
-  /** Execution seam for the simulated-user driver leg of every cell. */
-  driverTransport?: MultishotTransport;
+  /** Caller-owned execution for the agent leg of every cell (see
+   *  RunMultishotOptions.agentTransport). Judges are unaffected; each judge
+   *  carries its own transport in MultishotJudges. */
+  agentTransport: MultishotTransport;
+  /** Caller-owned execution for the simulated-user driver leg of every cell. */
+  driverTransport: MultishotTransport;
+  /** Caller-owned execution for the specialist leg the tool executors run in
+   *  every cell. Defaults to `agentTransport`. */
+  toolTransport?: MultishotTransport;
   /** Conversation engine for every cell. Defaults to `runMultishot`.
    *
    *  The matrix owns everything around the shot — cell fan-out, concurrency,
@@ -360,9 +365,6 @@ interface RunMultishotMatrixOptions<TPersona extends MultishotPersona> {
    *  `MultishotShotResultError` for that cell. The default engine is never
    *  used as a fallback. */
   runShot?: MultishotShot<TPersona>;
-  /** Pass-thru fields. */
-  apiKey?: string;
-  baseUrl?: string;
 }
 /** Per-cell output the multishot matrix records in `MatrixResult.cells`.
  *  A consumer that supplies its own `runShot` reads the matrix through this
@@ -395,5 +397,5 @@ interface RunMultishotMatrixResult {
 }
 declare function runMultishotMatrix<TPersona extends MultishotPersona>(opts: RunMultishotMatrixOptions<TPersona>): Promise<RunMultishotMatrixResult>;
 //#endregion
-export { JudgeConfig as A, MultishotToolExecutor as C, MultishotTransportToolCall as D, MultishotTransportResponse as E, runJudge as F, JudgeRunResult as M, renderDimensions as N, assertMultishotShotResult as O, renderJsonFooter as P, MultishotToolDefinition as S, MultishotTransportRequest as T, MultishotMessage as _, MultishotCellOutput as a, MultishotShape as b, RunMultishotMatrixResult as c, MultishotShot as d, RunMultishotOptions as f, MultishotFatalToolError as g, MultishotDriverEmptyError as h, ConversationJudgeInput as i, JudgeDimension as j, DEFAULT_JUDGE_MODEL as k, computeCellComposite as l, MultishotArtifact as m, CellCompositeInput as n, MultishotJudges as o, runMultishot as p, CellCompositeScore as r, RunMultishotMatrixOptions as s, ArtifactJudgeInput as t, runMultishotMatrix as u, MultishotPersona as v, MultishotTransport as w, MultishotShotResultError as x, MultishotResult as y };
-//# sourceMappingURL=matrix-DrVnRp4G.d.ts.map
+export { MultishotToolExecutor as A, MultishotFatalToolError as C, MultishotShape as D, MultishotResult as E, assertMultishotShotResult as F, MultishotTransportRequest as M, MultishotTransportResponse as N, MultishotShotResultError as O, MultishotTransportToolCall as P, MultishotDriverEmptyError as S, MultishotPersona as T, JudgeRunResult as _, MultishotCellOutput as a, runJudge as b, RunMultishotMatrixResult as c, MultishotShot as d, RunMultishotOptions as f, JudgeDimension as g, JudgeConfig as h, ConversationJudgeInput as i, MultishotTransport as j, MultishotToolDefinition as k, computeCellComposite as l, DEFAULT_JUDGE_MODEL as m, CellCompositeInput as n, MultishotJudges as o, runMultishot as p, CellCompositeScore as r, RunMultishotMatrixOptions as s, ArtifactJudgeInput as t, runMultishotMatrix as u, renderDimensions as v, MultishotMessage as w, MultishotArtifact as x, renderJsonFooter as y };
+//# sourceMappingURL=matrix-eXKRMHnL.d.ts.map

package/dist/matrix-eXKRMHnL.d.ts.map

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
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package/dist/meta-eval/index.d.ts

@@ -1,9 +1,9 @@
-import { f as Run } from "../schema-BtVldJ3T.js";
-import { s as TraceStore } from "../store-CT9YIIve.js";
+import { f as Run } from "../schema-Bjgdsn73.js";
+import { s as TraceStore } from "../store-B06JdC56.js";
 import { a as ContinuousCalibrationResult, n as CandidateScore, o as GoldenItem, r as ContinuousAgreement, t as CalibrationResult } from "../judge-calibration-C5CbMYce.js";
-import { n as SeriesConvergenceResult, o as CorpusAgreementReport, t as SeriesConvergenceOptions } from "../series-convergence-BxKEgBwA.js";
+import { n as SeriesConvergenceResult, o as CorpusAgreementReport, t as SeriesConvergenceOptions } from "../series-convergence-D9WgpXGi.js";
 import { a as OutcomeFilter, i as InMemoryOutcomeStore, n as FileSystemOutcomeStore, o as OutcomeStore, r as FileSystemOutcomeStoreOptions, t as DeploymentOutcome } from "../outcome-store-BYHIuO0e.js";
-import { a as rubricPredictiveValidity, i as RubricRanking, n as RubricPredictiveValidityInput, r as RubricPredictiveValidityReport, t as RubricOutcomePair } from "../rubric-predictive-validity-C7LnNvF2.js";
+import { a as rubricPredictiveValidity, i as RubricRanking, n as RubricPredictiveValidityInput, r as RubricPredictiveValidityReport, t as RubricOutcomePair } from "../rubric-predictive-validity-CxycqzX5.js";
 //#region src/meta-eval/correlation-study.d.ts
 interface EvalMetricSpec {
   id: string;
@@ -42,6 +42,9 @@ interface CorrelationStudyOptions {
   reduction?: 'latest' | 'mean' | 'max';
   /** Bootstrap iterations for the CI. Default 500. */
   bootstrapIterations?: number;
+  /** Seed for the bootstrap resampler. Absent, the seed is derived from the
+   *  paired observations, so the same study reproduces the same interval. */
+  seed?: number;
 }
 declare function correlationStudy(traceStore: TraceStore, outcomeStore: OutcomeStore, evalMetrics: EvalMetricSpec[], outcomeMetricNames: string[], options?: CorrelationStudyOptions): Promise<CorrelationStudyResult>;
 //#endregion
@@ -80,7 +83,6 @@ interface CalibrationPair {
   outcome: number;
 }
 declare function calibrationCurve(traceStore: TraceStore, outcomeStore: OutcomeStore, evalMetric: EvalMetricSpec, outcomeMetric: string, options?: CalibrationOptions): Promise<CalibrationReport | null>;
-declare function calibrationFromPairs(inputPairs: CalibrationPair[], evalMetric: string, outcomeMetric: string, options?: CalibrationOptions): CalibrationReport | null;
 //#endregion
 //#region src/meta-eval/sentinel.d.ts
 declare const SENTINEL_METRIC_NAMES: readonly ['irr', 'calibrationKappa', 'sentinelPassRate'];
@@ -212,5 +214,5 @@ interface EvalHealthStamp {
  */
 declare function evalHealthStamp(report: SentinelReport): EvalHealthStamp;
 //#endregion
-export { CalibrationBin, CalibrationOptions, CalibrationPair, CalibrationReport, CorrelationResult, CorrelationStudyOptions, CorrelationStudyResult, DeploymentOutcome, EvalHealthStamp, EvalMetricSpec, FileSystemOutcomeStore, FileSystemOutcomeStoreOptions, InMemoryOutcomeStore, JudgeSentinelOptions, OutcomeFilter, OutcomePair, OutcomeStore, RubricOutcomePair, RubricPredictiveValidityInput, RubricPredictiveValidityReport, RubricRanking, SENTINEL_METRIC_NAMES, SentinelMetricName, SentinelMetrics, SentinelReport, SentinelSetOptions, SentinelSnapshot, SentinelStore, SentinelThresholds, SentinelTrend, SnapshotMeta, calibrationCurve, calibrationFromPairs, correlationStudy, evalHealthStamp, fileSentinelStore, inMemorySentinelStore, judgeSentinelReport, rubricPredictiveValidity, snapshotFromAgreement, snapshotFromCalibration, snapshotFromSentinelSet, validateSentinelSnapshot };
+export { CalibrationBin, CalibrationOptions, CalibrationPair, CalibrationReport, CorrelationResult, CorrelationStudyOptions, CorrelationStudyResult, DeploymentOutcome, EvalHealthStamp, EvalMetricSpec, FileSystemOutcomeStore, FileSystemOutcomeStoreOptions, InMemoryOutcomeStore, JudgeSentinelOptions, OutcomeFilter, OutcomePair, OutcomeStore, RubricOutcomePair, RubricPredictiveValidityInput, RubricPredictiveValidityReport, RubricRanking, SentinelMetricName, SentinelMetrics, SentinelReport, SentinelSetOptions, SentinelSnapshot, SentinelStore, SentinelThresholds, SentinelTrend, SnapshotMeta, calibrationCurve, correlationStudy, evalHealthStamp, fileSentinelStore, inMemorySentinelStore, judgeSentinelReport, rubricPredictiveValidity, snapshotFromAgreement, snapshotFromCalibration, snapshotFromSentinelSet, validateSentinelSnapshot };
 //# sourceMappingURL=index.d.ts.map

package/dist/meta-eval/index.d.ts.map

@@ -1 +1 @@
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+{"version":3,"file":"index.d.ts","names":[],"sources":["../../src/meta-eval/correlation-study.ts","../../src/meta-eval/calibration.ts","../../src/meta-eval/sentinel.ts"],"mappings":";;;;;;;UAkBiB;EACf;;EAEA,WAAW,KAAK,KAAK,OAAO,eAAe;;UAG5B;EACf;EACA;;UAGe;EACf;EACA;EACA;EACA;EACA;;EAEA;IAAe;IAAe;;;EAE9B;;UAGe;EACf,OAAO;EACP;EACA;;UAGe;;EAEf;;EAEA,gBAAgB;;EAEhB;;EAEA;;;EAGA;;iBAGoB,iBACpB,YAAY,YACZ,cAAc,cACd,aAAa,kBACb,8BACA,UAAS,0BACR,QAAQ;;;UCrDM;EACf;EACA;EACA;EACA;EACA;;EAEA;;UAGe;EACf;EACA;EACA;EACA,MAAM;;EAEN;;EAEA;;UAGe;EACf;;EAEA;;EAEA;IAAU;IAAY;;;UAGP;EACf;EACA;;iBAGoB,iBACpB,YAAY,YACZ,cAAc,cACd,YAAY,gBACZ,uBACA,UAAS,qBACR,QAAQ;;;cCDL;KAEM,6BAA6B;UAExB;;EAEf;;EAEA;;EAEA;;UAGe;;EAEf;EACA;;EAEA;;;;;;;EAOA,SAAS;;;UAIM;EACf;EACA;EACA;;;iBAcc,yBAAyB,UAAU,kBAAkB;;;;;;iBAiCrD,wBACd,QAAQ,oBAAoB,6BAC5B,MAAM,eACL;;;;;;;;iBAmBa,sBACd,QAAQ,wBAAwB,qBAChC,MAAM,eACL;UAYc;;EAEf;;;;;;;;;iBAUc,wBACd,QAAQ,kBACR,QAAQ,cACR,MAAM,cACN,UAAS,qBACR;UA4Cc;EACf,OAAO,UAAU,mBAAmB;;EAEpC,QAAQ,mBAAmB,QAAQ;;iBAGrB,sBAAsB,UAAS,qBAA0B;;;;;;;iBAqBzD,kBAAkB,eAAe;UA0ChC;;EAEf;;EAEA;;EAEA;;EAEA;;UAGe;;EAEf;EACA,aAAa;;EAEb,cAAc;;UAGC;EACf;EACA,QAAQ;;EAER,OAAO;;EAEP;;EAEA;;EAEA;EACA;EACA;;UAGe;EACf,UAAU;EACV;EACA;;;;;;;EAOA;;iBAKc,oBACd,SAAS,oBACT,MAAM,uBACL;UA6Gc;EACf;EACA;;;;;;;;;;iBAWc,gBAAgB,QAAQ,iBAAiB"}

package/dist/meta-eval/index.js

@@ -1,8 +1,9 @@
 import { s as ValidationError } from "../errors-Dngq5h35.js";
-import { a as spearmanR, r as pearsonR } from "../descriptive-B5MwKfbf.js";
-import { o as llmSpans, t as aggregateLlm } from "../query-Di7eEQ79.js";
+import { i as makeRng } from "../internal-BDHPCnjk.js";
+import { a as spearmanR, r as pearsonR } from "../descriptive-jDOuI6mz.js";
+import { o as llmSpans, t as aggregateLlm } from "../query-CHmMP42p.js";
 import { t as analyzeSeries } from "../series-convergence-CjO2QdRW.js";
-import { t as rubricPredictiveValidity } from "../rubric-predictive-validity-Cwwyd7ah.js";
+import { t as rubricPredictiveValidity } from "../rubric-predictive-validity-CK8SCOg-.js";
 import { n as InMemoryOutcomeStore, t as FileSystemOutcomeStore } from "../outcome-store-ChBKlTd_.js";
 //#region src/meta-eval/calibration.ts
 async function calibrationCurve(traceStore, outcomeStore, evalMetric, outcomeMetric, options = {}) {
@@ -156,7 +157,7 @@ async function correlationStudy(traceStore, outcomeStore, evalMetrics, outcomeMe
 		pairs: pairs.filter((p) => p.xs.length >= 3).map((p) => {
 			const pearson = pearsonR(p.xs, p.ys);
 			const spearman = spearmanR(p.xs, p.ys);
-			const pearsonCi95 = bootstrapPearsonCi(p.xs, p.ys, options.bootstrapIterations ?? 500);
+			const pearsonCi95 = bootstrapPearsonCi(p.xs, p.ys, options.bootstrapIterations ?? 500, options.seed);
 			const verdict = Math.abs(pearson) >= .7 ? "strong" : Math.abs(pearson) >= .4 ? "moderate" : "weak";
 			return {
 				evalMetric: p.evalMetric,
@@ -190,18 +191,19 @@ function reduce(values, kind, outcomes) {
 	if (paired.length === 0) return v ?? null;
 	return paired.sort((a, b) => b.at - a.at)[0]?.v ?? null;
 }
-function bootstrapPearsonCi(xs, ys, iterations) {
+function bootstrapPearsonCi(xs, ys, iterations, seed) {
 	const n = xs.length;
 	if (n < 3) return {
 		lower: NaN,
 		upper: NaN
 	};
+	const rng = makeRng(seed, xs, ys);
 	const rs = [];
 	for (let b = 0; b < iterations; b++) {
 		const rx = new Array(n);
 		const ry = new Array(n);
 		for (let i = 0; i < n; i++) {
-			const idx = Math.floor(Math.random() * n);
+			const idx = Math.floor(rng() * n);
 			rx[i] = xs[idx];
 			ry[i] = ys[idx];
 		}
@@ -505,6 +507,6 @@ function evalHealthStamp(report) {
 	};
 }
 //#endregion
-export { FileSystemOutcomeStore, InMemoryOutcomeStore, SENTINEL_METRIC_NAMES, calibrationCurve, calibrationFromPairs, correlationStudy, evalHealthStamp, fileSentinelStore, inMemorySentinelStore, judgeSentinelReport, rubricPredictiveValidity, snapshotFromAgreement, snapshotFromCalibration, snapshotFromSentinelSet, validateSentinelSnapshot };
+export { FileSystemOutcomeStore, InMemoryOutcomeStore, calibrationCurve, correlationStudy, evalHealthStamp, fileSentinelStore, inMemorySentinelStore, judgeSentinelReport, rubricPredictiveValidity, snapshotFromAgreement, snapshotFromCalibration, snapshotFromSentinelSet, validateSentinelSnapshot };
 
 //# sourceMappingURL=index.js.map

package/dist/meta-eval/index.js.map

@@ -1 +1 @@
-{"version":3,"file":"index.js","names":["defaultExtract"],"sources":["../../src/meta-eval/calibration.ts","../../src/meta-eval/correlation-study.ts","../../src/meta-eval/sentinel.ts"],"sourcesContent":["/**\n * Calibration curve — binned \"if eval says X, what does reality show?\"\n *\n * Companion to correlationStudy. Raw correlation is a single number;\n * the calibration curve shows *where* the eval is well-calibrated vs\n * overconfident / underconfident. Buckets the eval metric, computes\n * mean outcome per bucket, reports expected-calibration-error (ECE).\n */\n\nimport type { Run } from '../trace/schema'\nimport type { TraceStore } from '../trace/store'\nimport type { EvalMetricSpec } from './correlation-study'\nimport type { DeploymentOutcome, OutcomeStore } from './outcome-store'\n\nexport interface CalibrationBin {\n  lower: number\n  upper: number\n  n: number\n  evalMean: number\n  outcomeMean: number\n  /** |outcomeMean − evalMean|; contributes to ECE weighted by n/total. */\n  gap: number\n}\n\nexport interface CalibrationReport {\n  evalMetric: string\n  outcomeMetric: string\n  n: number\n  bins: CalibrationBin[]\n  /** Expected Calibration Error — Σ (n_i/N) × |outcomeMean_i − evalMean_i|. */\n  ece: number\n  /** Max bin gap — upper bound on miscalibration. */\n  maxGap: number\n}\n\nexport interface CalibrationOptions {\n  bins?: number\n  /** Equal-width (fixed bin edges) or equal-frequency (quantile bins). */\n  binning?: 'equal-width' | 'equal-frequency'\n  /** Clip eval values to [lo, hi] before binning. */\n  range?: { lo: number; hi: number }\n}\n\nexport interface CalibrationPair {\n  evalScore: number\n  outcome: number\n}\n\nexport async function calibrationCurve(\n  traceStore: TraceStore,\n  outcomeStore: OutcomeStore,\n  evalMetric: EvalMetricSpec,\n  outcomeMetric: string,\n  options: CalibrationOptions = {},\n): Promise<CalibrationReport | null> {\n  const runs = await traceStore.listRuns()\n  const outcomes = await outcomeStore.list()\n  const byRun = new Map<string, DeploymentOutcome[]>()\n  for (const o of outcomes) {\n    const arr = byRun.get(o.runId) ?? []\n    arr.push(o)\n    byRun.set(o.runId, arr)\n  }\n\n  const extract = evalMetric.extract ?? defaultExtract(evalMetric.id)\n  const pairs: Array<{ x: number; y: number }> = []\n  for (const run of runs) {\n    const os = byRun.get(run.runId)\n    if (!os?.length) continue\n    const x = await extract(run, traceStore)\n    if (x === null || !Number.isFinite(x)) continue\n    const latest = [...os].sort((a, b) => b.capturedAt - a.capturedAt)[0]!\n    const y = latest.metrics[outcomeMetric]\n    if (typeof y !== 'number' || !Number.isFinite(y)) continue\n    pairs.push({ x, y })\n  }\n  if (pairs.length < 2) return null\n\n  return calibrationFromPairs(\n    pairs.map((p) => ({ evalScore: p.x, outcome: p.y })),\n    evalMetric.id,\n    outcomeMetric,\n    options,\n  )\n}\n\nexport function calibrationFromPairs(\n  inputPairs: CalibrationPair[],\n  evalMetric: string,\n  outcomeMetric: string,\n  options: CalibrationOptions = {},\n): CalibrationReport | null {\n  const pairs = inputPairs.filter(\n    (pair) => Number.isFinite(pair.evalScore) && Number.isFinite(pair.outcome),\n  )\n  if (pairs.length < 2) return null\n\n  const numBins = options.bins ?? 10\n  const binning = options.binning ?? 'equal-width'\n  const xs = pairs.map((p) => p.evalScore)\n  const lo = options.range?.lo ?? Math.min(...xs)\n  const hi = options.range?.hi ?? Math.max(...xs)\n\n  const bins: CalibrationBin[] = []\n  if (binning === 'equal-frequency') {\n    const sorted = [...pairs].sort((a, b) => a.evalScore - b.evalScore)\n    const perBin = Math.max(1, Math.floor(sorted.length / numBins))\n    for (let i = 0; i < sorted.length; i += perBin) {\n      const chunk = sorted.slice(i, i + perBin)\n      if (chunk.length === 0) continue\n      bins.push(toBin(chunk))\n    }\n  } else {\n    const width = (hi - lo) / numBins\n    if (width === 0) return null\n    for (let i = 0; i < numBins; i++) {\n      const binLo = lo + i * width\n      const binHi = i === numBins - 1 ? hi + 1e-9 : lo + (i + 1) * width\n      const chunk = pairs.filter((p) => p.evalScore >= binLo && p.evalScore < binHi)\n      if (chunk.length === 0) continue\n      bins.push(toBin(chunk, binLo, binHi))\n    }\n  }\n\n  const total = bins.reduce((a, b) => a + b.n, 0)\n  const ece = bins.reduce((a, b) => a + (b.n / total) * b.gap, 0)\n  const maxGap = bins.reduce((a, b) => Math.max(a, b.gap), 0)\n\n  return { evalMetric, outcomeMetric, n: pairs.length, bins, ece, maxGap }\n}\n\nfunction toBin(chunk: CalibrationPair[], lower?: number, upper?: number): CalibrationBin {\n  const xs = chunk.map((c) => c.evalScore)\n  const ys = chunk.map((c) => c.outcome)\n  const evalMean = mean(xs)\n  const outcomeMean = mean(ys)\n  return {\n    lower: lower ?? Math.min(...xs),\n    upper: upper ?? Math.max(...xs),\n    n: chunk.length,\n    evalMean,\n    outcomeMean,\n    gap: Math.abs(outcomeMean - evalMean),\n  }\n}\n\nfunction mean(xs: number[]): number {\n  return xs.reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0) / xs.length\n}\n\nfunction defaultExtract(metric: string): (run: Run, store: TraceStore) => Promise<number | null> {\n  return async (run) =>\n    run.outcome?.score ?? (metric === 'pass' ? (run.outcome?.pass === true ? 1 : 0) : null)\n}\n","/**\n * Correlation study — \"does our eval score predict real-world outcomes?\"\n *\n * This is the load-bearing signal. Takes a TraceStore + OutcomeStore,\n * joins on runId, computes Pearson + Spearman + bootstrap CI for every\n * (evalMetric, outcomeMetric) pair the caller declares.\n *\n * Without this number the framework is ornamental. With it and r > 0.6\n * the framework is a moat — no other agent-eval tool publishes one.\n */\n\nimport { pearsonR, spearmanR } from '../statistics'\nimport { aggregateLlm, llmSpans } from '../trace/query'\nimport type { Run } from '../trace/schema'\nimport type { TraceStore } from '../trace/store'\nimport type { DeploymentOutcome, OutcomeFilter, OutcomeStore } from './outcome-store'\n\nexport interface EvalMetricSpec {\n  id: string\n  /** Extract a scalar from a run (defaults cover score/pass/durationMs/costUsd/tokens). */\n  extract?: (run: Run, store: TraceStore) => Promise<number | null>\n}\n\nexport interface OutcomePair {\n  evalMetric: string\n  outcomeMetric: string\n}\n\nexport interface CorrelationResult {\n  evalMetric: string\n  outcomeMetric: string\n  n: number\n  pearson: number\n  spearman: number\n  /** 95% bootstrap CI for Pearson. */\n  pearsonCi95: { lower: number; upper: number }\n  /** Rough verdict: 'strong' ≥ 0.7, 'moderate' ≥ 0.4, else 'weak'. */\n  verdict: 'strong' | 'moderate' | 'weak'\n}\n\nexport interface CorrelationStudyResult {\n  pairs: CorrelationResult[]\n  joinedSamples: number\n  skippedRuns: number\n}\n\nexport interface CorrelationStudyOptions {\n  /** Only join outcomes captured within this window after run.startedAt. */\n  maxCaptureLagMs?: number\n  /** Restrict to a subset of outcomes (cohort, region, source). */\n  outcomeFilter?: OutcomeFilter\n  /** Which outcome per run to use when multiple exist. Default 'latest'. */\n  reduction?: 'latest' | 'mean' | 'max'\n  /** Bootstrap iterations for the CI. Default 500. */\n  bootstrapIterations?: number\n}\n\nexport async function correlationStudy(\n  traceStore: TraceStore,\n  outcomeStore: OutcomeStore,\n  evalMetrics: EvalMetricSpec[],\n  outcomeMetricNames: string[],\n  options: CorrelationStudyOptions = {},\n): Promise<CorrelationStudyResult> {\n  const runs = await traceStore.listRuns()\n  const outcomes = await outcomeStore.list(options.outcomeFilter)\n  const outcomesByRun = new Map<string, DeploymentOutcome[]>()\n  for (const o of outcomes) {\n    const arr = outcomesByRun.get(o.runId) ?? []\n    arr.push(o)\n    outcomesByRun.set(o.runId, arr)\n  }\n\n  const reduction = options.reduction ?? 'latest'\n  const maxLag = options.maxCaptureLagMs ?? Infinity\n\n  const pairs: Array<{ evalMetric: string; outcomeMetric: string; xs: number[]; ys: number[] }> = []\n  for (const em of evalMetrics) {\n    for (const om of outcomeMetricNames) {\n      pairs.push({ evalMetric: em.id, outcomeMetric: om, xs: [], ys: [] })\n    }\n  }\n\n  let joined = 0\n  let skipped = 0\n  for (const run of runs) {\n    const os = outcomesByRun.get(run.runId)\n    if (!os || os.length === 0) {\n      skipped++\n      continue\n    }\n    const eligible = os.filter((o) => o.capturedAt - run.startedAt <= maxLag)\n    if (eligible.length === 0) {\n      skipped++\n      continue\n    }\n\n    for (const em of evalMetrics) {\n      const extract = em.extract ?? defaultExtract(em.id)\n      const x = await extract(run, traceStore)\n      if (x === null || !Number.isFinite(x)) continue\n\n      for (const om of outcomeMetricNames) {\n        const values = eligible\n          .map((o) => o.metrics[om])\n          .filter((v): v is number => typeof v === 'number' && Number.isFinite(v))\n        if (values.length === 0) continue\n        const y = reduce(values, reduction, eligible)\n        if (y === null) continue\n        const pair = pairs.find((p) => p.evalMetric === em.id && p.outcomeMetric === om)!\n        pair.xs.push(x)\n        pair.ys.push(y)\n      }\n    }\n    joined++\n  }\n\n  const results: CorrelationResult[] = pairs\n    .filter((p) => p.xs.length >= 3)\n    .map((p) => {\n      const pearson = pearsonR(p.xs, p.ys)\n      const spearman = spearmanR(p.xs, p.ys)\n      const pearsonCi95 = bootstrapPearsonCi(p.xs, p.ys, options.bootstrapIterations ?? 500)\n      const verdict: CorrelationResult['verdict'] =\n        Math.abs(pearson) >= 0.7 ? 'strong' : Math.abs(pearson) >= 0.4 ? 'moderate' : 'weak'\n      return {\n        evalMetric: p.evalMetric,\n        outcomeMetric: p.outcomeMetric,\n        n: p.xs.length,\n        pearson,\n        spearman,\n        pearsonCi95,\n        verdict,\n      }\n    })\n\n  return { pairs: results, joinedSamples: joined, skippedRuns: skipped }\n}\n\n// ── Helpers ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────\n\nfunction reduce(\n  values: number[],\n  kind: 'latest' | 'mean' | 'max',\n  outcomes: DeploymentOutcome[],\n): number | null {\n  if (values.length === 0) return null\n  if (kind === 'mean') return values.reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0) / values.length\n  if (kind === 'max') return Math.max(...values)\n  // 'latest': pick the outcome captured last, then lookup its metric\n  const latest = [...outcomes].sort((a, b) => b.capturedAt - a.capturedAt)[0]\n  if (!latest) return null\n  const latestKey = Object.keys(latest.metrics)[0]\n  const v = latestKey !== undefined ? latest.metrics[latestKey] : undefined\n  // For 'latest' we already have `values` aligned; use the last-captured one\n  const paired = outcomes\n    .map((o) => {\n      const k = Object.keys(o.metrics)[0]\n      return {\n        at: o.capturedAt,\n        v: k !== undefined ? values.find((x) => o.metrics[k] === x) : undefined,\n      }\n    })\n    .filter((p) => p.v !== undefined)\n  if (paired.length === 0) return v ?? null\n  return paired.sort((a, b) => b.at - a.at)[0]?.v ?? null\n}\n\nfunction bootstrapPearsonCi(\n  xs: number[],\n  ys: number[],\n  iterations: number,\n): { lower: number; upper: number } {\n  const n = xs.length\n  if (n < 3) return { lower: NaN, upper: NaN }\n  const rs: number[] = []\n  for (let b = 0; b < iterations; b++) {\n    const rx: number[] = new Array(n)\n    const ry: number[] = new Array(n)\n    for (let i = 0; i < n; i++) {\n      const idx = Math.floor(Math.random() * n)\n      rx[i] = xs[idx]!\n      ry[i] = ys[idx]!\n    }\n    const r = pearsonR(rx, ry)\n    if (Number.isFinite(r)) rs.push(r)\n  }\n  rs.sort((a, b) => a - b)\n  if (rs.length === 0) return { lower: NaN, upper: NaN }\n  return {\n    lower: rs[Math.floor(0.025 * rs.length)]!,\n    upper: rs[Math.min(rs.length - 1, Math.floor(0.975 * rs.length))]!,\n  }\n}\n\nfunction defaultExtract(metric: string): (run: Run, store: TraceStore) => Promise<number | null> {\n  return async (run, store) => {\n    switch (metric) {\n      case 'score':\n      case 'overallScore':\n        return run.outcome?.score ?? null\n      case 'pass':\n        return run.outcome?.pass === true ? 1 : 0\n      case 'durationMs':\n        return run.endedAt && run.startedAt ? run.endedAt - run.startedAt : null\n      case 'costUsd': {\n        const llm = await llmSpans(store, run.runId)\n        return aggregateLlm(llm).costUsd\n      }\n      case 'inputTokens': {\n        const llm = await llmSpans(store, run.runId)\n        return aggregateLlm(llm).inputTokens\n      }\n      default:\n        return null\n    }\n  }\n}\n","/**\n * Judge sentinel — eval trustworthiness as a continuously measured,\n * alarmed trend.\n *\n * Judges are models; models change underneath us; calibration decays.\n * This module composes three existing instruments into one loop:\n *\n *   snapshot — adapters turn real instrument outputs (`calibrateJudge` /\n *              `calibrateJudgeContinuous`, `corpusInterRaterAgreement` /\n *              `continuousAgreement`, a rerun sentinel golden set) into\n *              `SentinelSnapshot`s\n *   series   — `analyzeSeries` (src/series-convergence) classifies each\n *              judge×metric history as stabilized / drifting / noisy\n *   alarm    — `judgeSentinelReport` turns trends + thresholds into named\n *              alarms; `evalHealthStamp` is the tiny object a campaign\n *              attaches to its verdicts\n *\n * Alarm conditions:\n *   - convergence state `drifting-down` on any tracked metric\n *   - irr below `minIrr`\n *   - calibrationKappa / sentinelPassRate dropped vs the series baseline\n *     beyond `maxKappaDrop` / `maxSentinelDrop`\n *   - judge model changed with no post-change golden-grounded snapshot\n *     (the silent-upgrade trap: judges agreeing with each other after a\n *     model swap proves nothing — only re-measuring against gold does)\n *   - newest snapshot older than `staleAfterDays` relative to `asOf`\n *\n * Wire-in: run the snapshot adapters from a post-campaign hook or a\n * nightly job, append to a `SentinelStore`, then compute\n * `judgeSentinelReport(await store.history(), { asOf })` with `asOf` =\n * the campaign timestamp. Attach `evalHealthStamp(report)` to campaign\n * verdicts: an alarmed sentinel means every downstream verdict carries\n * an integrity warning until the judge is recalibrated.\n *\n * The module is clock-free — every timestamp (`at`, `asOf`) is\n * caller-supplied ISO-8601, so reports are reproducible.\n */\n\nimport { ValidationError } from '../errors'\nimport type {\n  CalibrationResult,\n  CandidateScore,\n  ContinuousAgreement,\n  ContinuousCalibrationResult,\n  GoldenItem,\n} from '../judge-calibration'\nimport {\n  analyzeSeries,\n  type SeriesConvergenceOptions,\n  type SeriesConvergenceResult,\n} from '../series-convergence'\nimport type { CorpusAgreementReport } from '../statistics'\n\nexport const SENTINEL_METRIC_NAMES = ['irr', 'calibrationKappa', 'sentinelPassRate'] as const\n\nexport type SentinelMetricName = (typeof SENTINEL_METRIC_NAMES)[number]\n\nexport interface SentinelMetrics {\n  /** Inter-rater reliability — ICC(2,1) from agreement instruments. */\n  irr?: number\n  /** Weighted κ vs the human golden set (`calibrateJudge*`). */\n  calibrationKappa?: number\n  /** Fraction of a fixed sentinel golden set the judge still scores within tolerance. */\n  sentinelPassRate?: number\n}\n\nexport interface SentinelSnapshot {\n  /** Caller-supplied ISO-8601 timestamp — the module never reads a clock. */\n  at: string\n  judgeId: string\n  /** Exact model identity behind the judge (pin the full version string). */\n  judgeModel: string\n  /**\n   * Metrics measured at `at`. May be empty: an empty-metrics snapshot is a\n   * model-change marker — it records the new `judgeModel` immediately and\n   * the silent-upgrade alarm stays raised until a golden-grounded snapshot\n   * (calibrationKappa or sentinelPassRate) follows.\n   */\n  metrics: SentinelMetrics\n}\n\n/** Identity + timestamp the caller supplies alongside an instrument output. */\nexport interface SnapshotMeta {\n  at: string\n  judgeId: string\n  judgeModel: string\n}\n\nfunction parseIso(value: string, label: string): number {\n  const ms = typeof value === 'string' ? Date.parse(value) : NaN\n  if (!Number.isFinite(ms)) {\n    throw new ValidationError(\n      `judge-sentinel: ${label} is not a parseable ISO timestamp: ${JSON.stringify(value)}`,\n    )\n  }\n  return ms\n}\n\n/** Shape guard for snapshots crossing a boundary (store append, JSONL load, report input). */\nexport function validateSentinelSnapshot(snapshot: SentinelSnapshot, source = 'snapshot'): void {\n  parseIso(snapshot.at, `${source}.at`)\n  if (typeof snapshot.judgeId !== 'string' || snapshot.judgeId.length === 0) {\n    throw new ValidationError(`judge-sentinel: ${source}.judgeId must be a non-empty string`)\n  }\n  if (typeof snapshot.judgeModel !== 'string' || snapshot.judgeModel.length === 0) {\n    throw new ValidationError(`judge-sentinel: ${source}.judgeModel must be a non-empty string`)\n  }\n  if (snapshot.metrics === null || typeof snapshot.metrics !== 'object') {\n    throw new ValidationError(`judge-sentinel: ${source}.metrics must be an object (may be empty)`)\n  }\n  for (const [key, value] of Object.entries(snapshot.metrics)) {\n    if (!(SENTINEL_METRIC_NAMES as readonly string[]).includes(key)) {\n      // A typo'd key would silently never trend — reject instead.\n      throw new ValidationError(\n        `judge-sentinel: ${source}.metrics carries unknown key \"${key}\" — known: ${SENTINEL_METRIC_NAMES.join(', ')}`,\n      )\n    }\n    if (value !== undefined && !Number.isFinite(value)) {\n      throw new ValidationError(\n        `judge-sentinel: ${source}.metrics.${key} is not a finite number: ${String(value)}`,\n      )\n    }\n  }\n}\n\n// ── Snapshot adapters — real instrument output → SentinelSnapshot ───\n\n/**\n * From `calibrateJudge` / `calibrateJudgeContinuous` output. Prefers the\n * un-rounded continuous κ_w when the report carries one (integer κ\n * discards information for [0,1] judges).\n */\nexport function snapshotFromCalibration(\n  report: CalibrationResult | ContinuousCalibrationResult,\n  meta: SnapshotMeta,\n): SentinelSnapshot {\n  const kappa = 'weightedKappaContinuous' in report ? report.weightedKappaContinuous : report.kappa\n  if (!Number.isFinite(kappa)) {\n    throw new ValidationError(\n      `snapshotFromCalibration: κ is not finite (n=${report.n}) — calibrate against ≥2 joined golden items before snapshotting`,\n    )\n  }\n  const snapshot: SentinelSnapshot = { ...meta, metrics: { calibrationKappa: kappa } }\n  validateSentinelSnapshot(snapshot)\n  return snapshot\n}\n\n/**\n * From `corpusInterRaterAgreement` (statistics.ts) or `continuousAgreement`\n * (judge-calibration.ts) output. IRR = ICC(2,1) — the reliability\n * coefficient both instruments compute. For ensemble-level agreement,\n * `meta.judgeId` names the ensemble and `meta.judgeModel` pins its\n * composition (e.g. a joined list of member model strings).\n */\nexport function snapshotFromAgreement(\n  report: CorpusAgreementReport | ContinuousAgreement,\n  meta: SnapshotMeta,\n): SentinelSnapshot {\n  const irr = 'overallIcc' in report ? report.overallIcc : report.icc\n  if (!Number.isFinite(irr)) {\n    throw new ValidationError(\n      'snapshotFromAgreement: ICC is not finite — agreement needs ≥2 raters and ≥2 complete items',\n    )\n  }\n  const snapshot: SentinelSnapshot = { ...meta, metrics: { irr } }\n  validateSentinelSnapshot(snapshot)\n  return snapshot\n}\n\nexport interface SentinelSetOptions {\n  /** Max |judge − human| for an item to count as passed. Default 0.1 (tuned for [0,1] scores). */\n  tolerance?: number\n}\n\n/**\n * From a rerun of a fixed sentinel golden set: the same `GoldenItem`s the\n * judge was originally calibrated on, re-scored periodically. Pass rate =\n * fraction of joined items where the judge stays within `tolerance` of the\n * human score. Items the judge didn't score are excluded from the\n * denominator; zero joined items is an error, not a 0% pass rate.\n */\nexport function snapshotFromSentinelSet(\n  scores: CandidateScore[],\n  golden: GoldenItem[],\n  meta: SnapshotMeta,\n  options: SentinelSetOptions = {},\n): SentinelSnapshot {\n  const tolerance = options.tolerance ?? 0.1\n  if (!Number.isFinite(tolerance) || tolerance < 0) {\n    throw new ValidationError(\n      `snapshotFromSentinelSet: tolerance must be a finite number ≥ 0, got ${tolerance}`,\n    )\n  }\n  const goldenById = new Map<string, number>()\n  for (const item of golden) {\n    if (!Number.isFinite(item.humanScore)) {\n      throw new ValidationError(\n        `snapshotFromSentinelSet: golden item \"${item.itemId}\" has a non-finite humanScore`,\n      )\n    }\n    if (goldenById.has(item.itemId)) {\n      throw new ValidationError(`snapshotFromSentinelSet: duplicate golden itemId \"${item.itemId}\"`)\n    }\n    goldenById.set(item.itemId, item.humanScore)\n  }\n  let joined = 0\n  let passed = 0\n  for (const s of scores) {\n    const human = goldenById.get(s.itemId)\n    if (human === undefined) continue\n    if (!Number.isFinite(s.score)) {\n      throw new ValidationError(\n        `snapshotFromSentinelSet: judge score for item \"${s.itemId}\" is not finite`,\n      )\n    }\n    joined++\n    if (Math.abs(s.score - human) <= tolerance) passed++\n  }\n  if (joined === 0) {\n    throw new ValidationError(\n      'snapshotFromSentinelSet: no judge scores joined the golden set — itemIds mismatch or empty sentinel run',\n    )\n  }\n  const snapshot: SentinelSnapshot = { ...meta, metrics: { sentinelPassRate: passed / joined } }\n  validateSentinelSnapshot(snapshot)\n  return snapshot\n}\n\n// ── Persistence ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────\n\nexport interface SentinelStore {\n  append(snapshot: SentinelSnapshot): Promise<void>\n  /** All snapshots (optionally for one judge), in append order. */\n  history(judgeId?: string): Promise<SentinelSnapshot[]>\n}\n\nexport function inMemorySentinelStore(initial: SentinelSnapshot[] = []): SentinelStore {\n  for (const s of initial) validateSentinelSnapshot(s)\n  const items = initial.map((s) => ({ ...s, metrics: { ...s.metrics } }))\n  return {\n    async append(snapshot) {\n      validateSentinelSnapshot(snapshot)\n      items.push({ ...snapshot, metrics: { ...snapshot.metrics } })\n    },\n    async history(judgeId) {\n      const all = items.map((s) => ({ ...s, metrics: { ...s.metrics } }))\n      return judgeId === undefined ? all : all.filter((s) => s.judgeId === judgeId)\n    },\n  }\n}\n\n/**\n * JSONL store — one snapshot per line, appended atomically per call.\n * A corrupt or shape-invalid line is a loud error naming the file and\n * line number: a sentinel history that silently drops records would\n * defeat the drift detection it exists to provide.\n */\nexport function fileSentinelStore(path: string): SentinelStore {\n  return {\n    async append(snapshot) {\n      validateSentinelSnapshot(snapshot)\n      const fs = await import('node:fs/promises')\n      const pathMod = await import('node:path')\n      await fs.mkdir(pathMod.dirname(path), { recursive: true })\n      await fs.appendFile(path, `${JSON.stringify(snapshot)}\\n`, 'utf8')\n    },\n    async history(judgeId) {\n      const fs = await import('node:fs/promises')\n      let raw: string\n      try {\n        raw = await fs.readFile(path, 'utf8')\n      } catch (err) {\n        if ((err as NodeJS.ErrnoException).code === 'ENOENT') return []\n        throw err\n      }\n      const lines = raw.split('\\n')\n      const snapshots: SentinelSnapshot[] = []\n      for (let i = 0; i < lines.length; i++) {\n        const line = lines[i]!\n        if (line.trim().length === 0) continue\n        let parsed: unknown\n        try {\n          parsed = JSON.parse(line)\n        } catch (err) {\n          throw new ValidationError(\n            `judge-sentinel: store at ${path} has a corrupt JSONL line ${i + 1}: ${(err as Error).message}`,\n          )\n        }\n        const snapshot = parsed as SentinelSnapshot\n        validateSentinelSnapshot(snapshot, `${path}:${i + 1}`)\n        snapshots.push(snapshot)\n      }\n      return judgeId === undefined ? snapshots : snapshots.filter((s) => s.judgeId === judgeId)\n    },\n  }\n}\n\n// ── Trend report ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────\n\nexport interface SentinelThresholds {\n  /** Floor for irr — below it the judge ensemble is unreliable regardless of trend. Default 0.6. */\n  minIrr?: number\n  /** Max tolerated calibrationKappa drop vs the series baseline. Default 0.15. */\n  maxKappaDrop?: number\n  /** Max tolerated sentinelPassRate drop vs the series baseline. Default 0.1. */\n  maxSentinelDrop?: number\n  /** Newest snapshot older than this (days, vs asOf) = the sentinel itself went blind. Default 30. */\n  staleAfterDays?: number\n}\n\nexport interface JudgeSentinelOptions {\n  /** Caller-supplied ISO timestamp staleness is measured against. */\n  asOf: string\n  thresholds?: SentinelThresholds\n  /** Forwarded to `analyzeSeries` (window, stableCv, driftRun). */\n  convergence?: SeriesConvergenceOptions\n}\n\nexport interface SentinelTrend {\n  judgeId: string\n  metric: SentinelMetricName\n  /** Verbatim `analyzeSeries` state for this judge×metric history. */\n  state: SeriesConvergenceResult['state']\n  /** Newest value in the series. */\n  current: number\n  /** Oldest value in the series — the reference the drop thresholds compare against. */\n  baseline: number\n  /** current − baseline (signed; negative = decayed). */\n  drift: number\n  alarmed: boolean\n  reason?: string\n}\n\nexport interface SentinelReport {\n  perJudge: SentinelTrend[]\n  alarms: string[]\n  healthy: boolean\n  /**\n   * `judgeId:metric` pairs with too few snapshots for the convergence\n   * machine. Named, not counted — a blind spot you can't see is a blind\n   * spot you won't fix. Floor/drop checks still apply to thin series, so\n   * insufficient history alone never masks an alarm.\n   */\n  insufficientHistory: string[]\n}\n\nconst MS_PER_DAY = 86_400_000\n\nexport function judgeSentinelReport(\n  history: SentinelSnapshot[],\n  opts: JudgeSentinelOptions,\n): SentinelReport {\n  const asOfMs = parseIso(opts.asOf, 'asOf')\n  const minIrr = opts.thresholds?.minIrr ?? 0.6\n  const maxKappaDrop = opts.thresholds?.maxKappaDrop ?? 0.15\n  const maxSentinelDrop = opts.thresholds?.maxSentinelDrop ?? 0.1\n  const staleAfterDays = opts.thresholds?.staleAfterDays ?? 30\n\n  const byJudge = new Map<string, Array<SentinelSnapshot & { atMs: number }>>()\n  for (const snapshot of history) {\n    validateSentinelSnapshot(snapshot)\n    const atMs = parseIso(snapshot.at, `snapshot.at (judge \"${snapshot.judgeId}\")`)\n    const arr = byJudge.get(snapshot.judgeId) ?? []\n    arr.push({ ...snapshot, atMs })\n    byJudge.set(snapshot.judgeId, arr)\n  }\n\n  const perJudge: SentinelTrend[] = []\n  const alarms: string[] = []\n  const insufficientHistory: string[] = []\n\n  for (const judgeId of [...byJudge.keys()].sort()) {\n    const snaps = byJudge.get(judgeId)!.sort((a, b) => a.atMs - b.atMs)\n    const newest = snaps[snaps.length - 1]!\n\n    const ageDays = (asOfMs - newest.atMs) / MS_PER_DAY\n    if (ageDays > staleAfterDays) {\n      alarms.push(\n        `judge \"${judgeId}\": stale — newest snapshot ${newest.at} is ${ageDays.toFixed(1)}d old vs asOf (limit ${staleAfterDays}d)`,\n      )\n    }\n\n    // Silent-upgrade trap: only the latest model change matters for current\n    // trust, and only golden-grounded metrics clear it — irr alone proves\n    // judges still agree with each other, not that they're still right.\n    let changeIdx = -1\n    for (let i = 1; i < snaps.length; i++) {\n      if (snaps[i]!.judgeModel !== snaps[i - 1]!.judgeModel) changeIdx = i\n    }\n    if (changeIdx >= 0) {\n      const recalibrated = snaps\n        .slice(changeIdx)\n        .some(\n          (s) =>\n            Number.isFinite(s.metrics.calibrationKappa) ||\n            Number.isFinite(s.metrics.sentinelPassRate),\n        )\n      if (!recalibrated) {\n        alarms.push(\n          `judge \"${judgeId}\": model changed \"${snaps[changeIdx - 1]!.judgeModel}\" → \"${snaps[changeIdx]!.judgeModel}\" at ${snaps[changeIdx]!.at} with no post-change calibration snapshot — silent-upgrade trap; rerun calibrateJudge or the sentinel set against the new model`,\n        )\n      }\n    }\n\n    for (const metric of SENTINEL_METRIC_NAMES) {\n      const values = snaps\n        .filter((s) => typeof s.metrics[metric] === 'number')\n        .map((s) => s.metrics[metric]!)\n      if (values.length === 0) continue\n\n      const convergence = analyzeSeries(values, opts.convergence)\n      if (convergence.state === 'insufficient-data')\n        insufficientHistory.push(`${judgeId}:${metric}`)\n\n      const current = values[values.length - 1]!\n      const baseline = values[0]!\n      const drift = current - baseline\n      const reasons: string[] = []\n      if (convergence.state === 'drifting-down') {\n        reasons.push(\n          `convergence state drifting-down (tail run ${convergence.tailRun}, window mean ${convergence.windowMean.toFixed(3)})`,\n        )\n      }\n      if (metric === 'irr' && current < minIrr) {\n        reasons.push(`irr ${current.toFixed(3)} below floor ${minIrr}`)\n      }\n      if (metric === 'calibrationKappa' && baseline - current > maxKappaDrop) {\n        reasons.push(\n          `calibrationKappa dropped ${(baseline - current).toFixed(3)} from baseline ${baseline.toFixed(3)} (limit ${maxKappaDrop})`,\n        )\n      }\n      if (metric === 'sentinelPassRate' && baseline - current > maxSentinelDrop) {\n        reasons.push(\n          `sentinelPassRate dropped ${(baseline - current).toFixed(3)} from baseline ${baseline.toFixed(3)} (limit ${maxSentinelDrop})`,\n        )\n      }\n\n      const alarmed = reasons.length > 0\n      const trend: SentinelTrend = {\n        judgeId,\n        metric,\n        state: convergence.state,\n        current,\n        baseline,\n        drift,\n        alarmed,\n      }\n      if (alarmed) {\n        trend.reason = reasons.join('; ')\n        alarms.push(`judge \"${judgeId}\" ${metric}: ${trend.reason}`)\n      }\n      perJudge.push(trend)\n    }\n  }\n\n  return { perJudge, alarms, healthy: alarms.length === 0, insufficientHistory }\n}\n\n// ── Verdict stamp ────────────────────────────────────────────────────\n\nexport interface EvalHealthStamp {\n  healthy: boolean\n  alarms: string[]\n}\n\n/**\n * The object a campaign attaches to its verdicts. Compute it from the\n * sentinel report in a post-campaign hook (or a nightly job feeding the\n * next day's campaigns) and store it alongside the verdict payload.\n * `healthy: false` means the judges that produced those verdicts have an\n * unresolved drift / decay / silent-upgrade / staleness alarm — treat the\n * verdicts as carrying an integrity warning until recalibration clears it.\n */\nexport function evalHealthStamp(report: SentinelReport): EvalHealthStamp {\n  return { healthy: report.healthy, alarms: [...report.alarms] 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+{"version":3,"file":"index.js","names":["defaultExtract"],"sources":["../../src/meta-eval/calibration.ts","../../src/meta-eval/correlation-study.ts","../../src/meta-eval/sentinel.ts"],"sourcesContent":["/**\n * Calibration curve — binned \"if eval says X, what does reality show?\"\n *\n * Companion to correlationStudy. Raw correlation is a single number;\n * the calibration curve shows *where* the eval is well-calibrated vs\n * overconfident / underconfident. Buckets the eval metric, computes\n * mean outcome per bucket, reports expected-calibration-error (ECE).\n */\n\nimport type { Run } from '../trace/schema'\nimport type { TraceStore } from '../trace/store'\nimport type { EvalMetricSpec } from './correlation-study'\nimport type { DeploymentOutcome, OutcomeStore } from './outcome-store'\n\nexport interface CalibrationBin {\n  lower: number\n  upper: number\n  n: number\n  evalMean: number\n  outcomeMean: number\n  /** |outcomeMean − evalMean|; contributes to ECE weighted by n/total. */\n  gap: number\n}\n\nexport interface CalibrationReport {\n  evalMetric: string\n  outcomeMetric: string\n  n: number\n  bins: CalibrationBin[]\n  /** Expected Calibration Error — Σ (n_i/N) × |outcomeMean_i − evalMean_i|. */\n  ece: number\n  /** Max bin gap — upper bound on miscalibration. */\n  maxGap: number\n}\n\nexport interface CalibrationOptions {\n  bins?: number\n  /** Equal-width (fixed bin edges) or equal-frequency (quantile bins). */\n  binning?: 'equal-width' | 'equal-frequency'\n  /** Clip eval values to [lo, hi] before binning. */\n  range?: { lo: number; hi: number }\n}\n\nexport interface CalibrationPair {\n  evalScore: number\n  outcome: number\n}\n\nexport async function calibrationCurve(\n  traceStore: TraceStore,\n  outcomeStore: OutcomeStore,\n  evalMetric: EvalMetricSpec,\n  outcomeMetric: string,\n  options: CalibrationOptions = {},\n): Promise<CalibrationReport | null> {\n  const runs = await traceStore.listRuns()\n  const outcomes = await outcomeStore.list()\n  const byRun = new Map<string, DeploymentOutcome[]>()\n  for (const o of outcomes) {\n    const arr = byRun.get(o.runId) ?? []\n    arr.push(o)\n    byRun.set(o.runId, arr)\n  }\n\n  const extract = evalMetric.extract ?? defaultExtract(evalMetric.id)\n  const pairs: Array<{ x: number; y: number }> = []\n  for (const run of runs) {\n    const os = byRun.get(run.runId)\n    if (!os?.length) continue\n    const x = await extract(run, traceStore)\n    if (x === null || !Number.isFinite(x)) continue\n    const latest = [...os].sort((a, b) => b.capturedAt - a.capturedAt)[0]!\n    const y = latest.metrics[outcomeMetric]\n    if (typeof y !== 'number' || !Number.isFinite(y)) continue\n    pairs.push({ x, y })\n  }\n  if (pairs.length < 2) return null\n\n  return calibrationFromPairs(\n    pairs.map((p) => ({ evalScore: p.x, outcome: p.y })),\n    evalMetric.id,\n    outcomeMetric,\n    options,\n  )\n}\n\nfunction calibrationFromPairs(\n  inputPairs: CalibrationPair[],\n  evalMetric: string,\n  outcomeMetric: string,\n  options: CalibrationOptions = {},\n): CalibrationReport | null {\n  const pairs = inputPairs.filter(\n    (pair) => Number.isFinite(pair.evalScore) && Number.isFinite(pair.outcome),\n  )\n  if (pairs.length < 2) return null\n\n  const numBins = options.bins ?? 10\n  const binning = options.binning ?? 'equal-width'\n  const xs = pairs.map((p) => p.evalScore)\n  const lo = options.range?.lo ?? Math.min(...xs)\n  const hi = options.range?.hi ?? Math.max(...xs)\n\n  const bins: CalibrationBin[] = []\n  if (binning === 'equal-frequency') {\n    const sorted = [...pairs].sort((a, b) => a.evalScore - b.evalScore)\n    const perBin = Math.max(1, Math.floor(sorted.length / numBins))\n    for (let i = 0; i < sorted.length; i += perBin) {\n      const chunk = sorted.slice(i, i + perBin)\n      if (chunk.length === 0) continue\n      bins.push(toBin(chunk))\n    }\n  } else {\n    const width = (hi - lo) / numBins\n    if (width === 0) return null\n    for (let i = 0; i < numBins; i++) {\n      const binLo = lo + i * width\n      const binHi = i === numBins - 1 ? hi + 1e-9 : lo + (i + 1) * width\n      const chunk = pairs.filter((p) => p.evalScore >= binLo && p.evalScore < binHi)\n      if (chunk.length === 0) continue\n      bins.push(toBin(chunk, binLo, binHi))\n    }\n  }\n\n  const total = bins.reduce((a, b) => a + b.n, 0)\n  const ece = bins.reduce((a, b) => a + (b.n / total) * b.gap, 0)\n  const maxGap = bins.reduce((a, b) => Math.max(a, b.gap), 0)\n\n  return { evalMetric, outcomeMetric, n: pairs.length, bins, ece, maxGap }\n}\n\nfunction toBin(chunk: CalibrationPair[], lower?: number, upper?: number): CalibrationBin {\n  const xs = chunk.map((c) => c.evalScore)\n  const ys = chunk.map((c) => c.outcome)\n  const evalMean = mean(xs)\n  const outcomeMean = mean(ys)\n  return {\n    lower: lower ?? Math.min(...xs),\n    upper: upper ?? Math.max(...xs),\n    n: chunk.length,\n    evalMean,\n    outcomeMean,\n    gap: Math.abs(outcomeMean - evalMean),\n  }\n}\n\nfunction mean(xs: number[]): number {\n  return xs.reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0) / xs.length\n}\n\nfunction defaultExtract(metric: string): (run: Run, store: TraceStore) => Promise<number | null> {\n  return async (run) =>\n    run.outcome?.score ?? (metric === 'pass' ? (run.outcome?.pass === true ? 1 : 0) : null)\n}\n","/**\n * Correlation study — \"does our eval score predict real-world outcomes?\"\n *\n * This is the load-bearing signal. Takes a TraceStore + OutcomeStore,\n * joins on runId, computes Pearson + Spearman + bootstrap CI for every\n * (evalMetric, outcomeMetric) pair the caller declares.\n *\n * Without this number the framework is ornamental. With it and r > 0.6\n * the framework is a moat — no other agent-eval tool publishes one.\n */\n\nimport { pearsonR, spearmanR } from '../statistics'\nimport { makeRng } from '../statistics/internal'\nimport { aggregateLlm, llmSpans } from '../trace/query'\nimport type { Run } from '../trace/schema'\nimport type { TraceStore } from '../trace/store'\nimport type { DeploymentOutcome, OutcomeFilter, OutcomeStore } from './outcome-store'\n\nexport interface EvalMetricSpec {\n  id: string\n  /** Extract a scalar from a run (defaults cover score/pass/durationMs/costUsd/tokens). */\n  extract?: (run: Run, store: TraceStore) => Promise<number | null>\n}\n\nexport interface OutcomePair {\n  evalMetric: string\n  outcomeMetric: string\n}\n\nexport interface CorrelationResult {\n  evalMetric: string\n  outcomeMetric: string\n  n: number\n  pearson: number\n  spearman: number\n  /** 95% bootstrap CI for Pearson. */\n  pearsonCi95: { lower: number; upper: number }\n  /** Rough verdict: 'strong' ≥ 0.7, 'moderate' ≥ 0.4, else 'weak'. */\n  verdict: 'strong' | 'moderate' | 'weak'\n}\n\nexport interface CorrelationStudyResult {\n  pairs: CorrelationResult[]\n  joinedSamples: number\n  skippedRuns: number\n}\n\nexport interface CorrelationStudyOptions {\n  /** Only join outcomes captured within this window after run.startedAt. */\n  maxCaptureLagMs?: number\n  /** Restrict to a subset of outcomes (cohort, region, source). */\n  outcomeFilter?: OutcomeFilter\n  /** Which outcome per run to use when multiple exist. Default 'latest'. */\n  reduction?: 'latest' | 'mean' | 'max'\n  /** Bootstrap iterations for the CI. Default 500. */\n  bootstrapIterations?: number\n  /** Seed for the bootstrap resampler. Absent, the seed is derived from the\n   *  paired observations, so the same study reproduces the same interval. */\n  seed?: number\n}\n\nexport async function correlationStudy(\n  traceStore: TraceStore,\n  outcomeStore: OutcomeStore,\n  evalMetrics: EvalMetricSpec[],\n  outcomeMetricNames: string[],\n  options: CorrelationStudyOptions = {},\n): Promise<CorrelationStudyResult> {\n  const runs = await traceStore.listRuns()\n  const outcomes = await outcomeStore.list(options.outcomeFilter)\n  const outcomesByRun = new Map<string, DeploymentOutcome[]>()\n  for (const o of outcomes) {\n    const arr = outcomesByRun.get(o.runId) ?? []\n    arr.push(o)\n    outcomesByRun.set(o.runId, arr)\n  }\n\n  const reduction = options.reduction ?? 'latest'\n  const maxLag = options.maxCaptureLagMs ?? Infinity\n\n  const pairs: Array<{ evalMetric: string; outcomeMetric: string; xs: number[]; ys: number[] }> = []\n  for (const em of evalMetrics) {\n    for (const om of outcomeMetricNames) {\n      pairs.push({ evalMetric: em.id, outcomeMetric: om, xs: [], ys: [] })\n    }\n  }\n\n  let joined = 0\n  let skipped = 0\n  for (const run of runs) {\n    const os = outcomesByRun.get(run.runId)\n    if (!os || os.length === 0) {\n      skipped++\n      continue\n    }\n    const eligible = os.filter((o) => o.capturedAt - run.startedAt <= maxLag)\n    if (eligible.length === 0) {\n      skipped++\n      continue\n    }\n\n    for (const em of evalMetrics) {\n      const extract = em.extract ?? defaultExtract(em.id)\n      const x = await extract(run, traceStore)\n      if (x === null || !Number.isFinite(x)) continue\n\n      for (const om of outcomeMetricNames) {\n        const values = eligible\n          .map((o) => o.metrics[om])\n          .filter((v): v is number => typeof v === 'number' && Number.isFinite(v))\n        if (values.length === 0) continue\n        const y = reduce(values, reduction, eligible)\n        if (y === null) continue\n        const pair = pairs.find((p) => p.evalMetric === em.id && p.outcomeMetric === om)!\n        pair.xs.push(x)\n        pair.ys.push(y)\n      }\n    }\n    joined++\n  }\n\n  const results: CorrelationResult[] = pairs\n    .filter((p) => p.xs.length >= 3)\n    .map((p) => {\n      const pearson = pearsonR(p.xs, p.ys)\n      const spearman = spearmanR(p.xs, p.ys)\n      const pearsonCi95 = bootstrapPearsonCi(\n        p.xs,\n        p.ys,\n        options.bootstrapIterations ?? 500,\n        options.seed,\n      )\n      const verdict: CorrelationResult['verdict'] =\n        Math.abs(pearson) >= 0.7 ? 'strong' : Math.abs(pearson) >= 0.4 ? 'moderate' : 'weak'\n      return {\n        evalMetric: p.evalMetric,\n        outcomeMetric: p.outcomeMetric,\n        n: p.xs.length,\n        pearson,\n        spearman,\n        pearsonCi95,\n        verdict,\n      }\n    })\n\n  return { pairs: results, joinedSamples: joined, skippedRuns: skipped }\n}\n\n// ── Helpers ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────\n\nfunction reduce(\n  values: number[],\n  kind: 'latest' | 'mean' | 'max',\n  outcomes: DeploymentOutcome[],\n): number | null {\n  if (values.length === 0) return null\n  if (kind === 'mean') return values.reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0) / values.length\n  if (kind === 'max') return Math.max(...values)\n  // 'latest': pick the outcome captured last, then lookup its metric\n  const latest = [...outcomes].sort((a, b) => b.capturedAt - a.capturedAt)[0]\n  if (!latest) return null\n  const latestKey = Object.keys(latest.metrics)[0]\n  const v = latestKey !== undefined ? latest.metrics[latestKey] : undefined\n  // For 'latest' we already have `values` aligned; use the last-captured one\n  const paired = outcomes\n    .map((o) => {\n      const k = Object.keys(o.metrics)[0]\n      return {\n        at: o.capturedAt,\n        v: k !== undefined ? values.find((x) => o.metrics[k] === x) : undefined,\n      }\n    })\n    .filter((p) => p.v !== undefined)\n  if (paired.length === 0) return v ?? null\n  return paired.sort((a, b) => b.at - a.at)[0]?.v ?? null\n}\n\nfunction bootstrapPearsonCi(\n  xs: number[],\n  ys: number[],\n  iterations: number,\n  seed: number | undefined,\n): { lower: number; upper: number } {\n  const n = xs.length\n  if (n < 3) return { lower: NaN, upper: NaN }\n  const rng = makeRng(seed, xs, ys)\n  const rs: number[] = []\n  for (let b = 0; b < iterations; b++) {\n    const rx: number[] = new Array(n)\n    const ry: number[] = new Array(n)\n    for (let i = 0; i < n; i++) {\n      const idx = Math.floor(rng() * n)\n      rx[i] = xs[idx]!\n      ry[i] = ys[idx]!\n    }\n    const r = pearsonR(rx, ry)\n    if (Number.isFinite(r)) rs.push(r)\n  }\n  rs.sort((a, b) => a - b)\n  if (rs.length === 0) return { lower: NaN, upper: NaN }\n  return {\n    lower: rs[Math.floor(0.025 * rs.length)]!,\n    upper: rs[Math.min(rs.length - 1, Math.floor(0.975 * rs.length))]!,\n  }\n}\n\nfunction defaultExtract(metric: string): (run: Run, store: TraceStore) => Promise<number | null> {\n  return async (run, store) => {\n    switch (metric) {\n      case 'score':\n      case 'overallScore':\n        return run.outcome?.score ?? null\n      case 'pass':\n        return run.outcome?.pass === true ? 1 : 0\n      case 'durationMs':\n        return run.endedAt && run.startedAt ? run.endedAt - run.startedAt : null\n      case 'costUsd': {\n        const llm = await llmSpans(store, run.runId)\n        return aggregateLlm(llm).costUsd\n      }\n      case 'inputTokens': {\n        const llm = await llmSpans(store, run.runId)\n        return aggregateLlm(llm).inputTokens\n      }\n      default:\n        return null\n    }\n  }\n}\n","/**\n * Judge sentinel — eval trustworthiness as a continuously measured,\n * alarmed trend.\n *\n * Judges are models; models change underneath us; calibration decays.\n * This module composes three existing instruments into one loop:\n *\n *   snapshot — adapters turn real instrument outputs (`calibrateJudge` /\n *              `calibrateJudgeContinuous`, `corpusInterRaterAgreement` /\n *              `continuousAgreement`, a rerun sentinel golden set) into\n *              `SentinelSnapshot`s\n *   series   — `analyzeSeries` (src/series-convergence) classifies each\n *              judge×metric history as stabilized / drifting / noisy\n *   alarm    — `judgeSentinelReport` turns trends + thresholds into named\n *              alarms; `evalHealthStamp` is the tiny object a campaign\n *              attaches to its verdicts\n *\n * Alarm conditions:\n *   - convergence state `drifting-down` on any tracked metric\n *   - irr below `minIrr`\n *   - calibrationKappa / sentinelPassRate dropped vs the series baseline\n *     beyond `maxKappaDrop` / `maxSentinelDrop`\n *   - judge model changed with no post-change golden-grounded snapshot\n *     (the silent-upgrade trap: judges agreeing with each other after a\n *     model swap proves nothing — only re-measuring against gold does)\n *   - newest snapshot older than `staleAfterDays` relative to `asOf`\n *\n * Wire-in: run the snapshot adapters from a post-campaign hook or a\n * nightly job, append to a `SentinelStore`, then compute\n * `judgeSentinelReport(await store.history(), { asOf })` with `asOf` =\n * the campaign timestamp. Attach `evalHealthStamp(report)` to campaign\n * verdicts: an alarmed sentinel means every downstream verdict carries\n * an integrity warning until the judge is recalibrated.\n *\n * The module is clock-free — every timestamp (`at`, `asOf`) is\n * caller-supplied ISO-8601, so reports are reproducible.\n */\n\nimport { ValidationError } from '../errors'\nimport type {\n  CalibrationResult,\n  CandidateScore,\n  ContinuousAgreement,\n  ContinuousCalibrationResult,\n  GoldenItem,\n} from '../judge-calibration'\nimport {\n  analyzeSeries,\n  type SeriesConvergenceOptions,\n  type SeriesConvergenceResult,\n} from '../series-convergence'\nimport type { CorpusAgreementReport } from '../statistics'\n\nconst SENTINEL_METRIC_NAMES = ['irr', 'calibrationKappa', 'sentinelPassRate'] as const\n\nexport type SentinelMetricName = (typeof SENTINEL_METRIC_NAMES)[number]\n\nexport interface SentinelMetrics {\n  /** Inter-rater reliability — ICC(2,1) from agreement instruments. */\n  irr?: number\n  /** Weighted κ vs the human golden set (`calibrateJudge*`). */\n  calibrationKappa?: number\n  /** Fraction of a fixed sentinel golden set the judge still scores within tolerance. */\n  sentinelPassRate?: number\n}\n\nexport interface SentinelSnapshot {\n  /** Caller-supplied ISO-8601 timestamp — the module never reads a clock. */\n  at: string\n  judgeId: string\n  /** Exact model identity behind the judge (pin the full version string). */\n  judgeModel: string\n  /**\n   * Metrics measured at `at`. May be empty: an empty-metrics snapshot is a\n   * model-change marker — it records the new `judgeModel` immediately and\n   * the silent-upgrade alarm stays raised until a golden-grounded snapshot\n   * (calibrationKappa or sentinelPassRate) follows.\n   */\n  metrics: SentinelMetrics\n}\n\n/** Identity + timestamp the caller supplies alongside an instrument output. */\nexport interface SnapshotMeta {\n  at: string\n  judgeId: string\n  judgeModel: string\n}\n\nfunction parseIso(value: string, label: string): number {\n  const ms = typeof value === 'string' ? Date.parse(value) : NaN\n  if (!Number.isFinite(ms)) {\n    throw new ValidationError(\n      `judge-sentinel: ${label} is not a parseable ISO timestamp: ${JSON.stringify(value)}`,\n    )\n  }\n  return ms\n}\n\n/** Shape guard for snapshots crossing a boundary (store append, JSONL load, report input). */\nexport function validateSentinelSnapshot(snapshot: SentinelSnapshot, source = 'snapshot'): void {\n  parseIso(snapshot.at, `${source}.at`)\n  if (typeof snapshot.judgeId !== 'string' || snapshot.judgeId.length === 0) {\n    throw new ValidationError(`judge-sentinel: ${source}.judgeId must be a non-empty string`)\n  }\n  if (typeof snapshot.judgeModel !== 'string' || snapshot.judgeModel.length === 0) {\n    throw new ValidationError(`judge-sentinel: ${source}.judgeModel must be a non-empty string`)\n  }\n  if (snapshot.metrics === null || typeof snapshot.metrics !== 'object') {\n    throw new ValidationError(`judge-sentinel: ${source}.metrics must be an object (may be empty)`)\n  }\n  for (const [key, value] of Object.entries(snapshot.metrics)) {\n    if (!(SENTINEL_METRIC_NAMES as readonly string[]).includes(key)) {\n      // A typo'd key would silently never trend — reject instead.\n      throw new ValidationError(\n        `judge-sentinel: ${source}.metrics carries unknown key \"${key}\" — known: ${SENTINEL_METRIC_NAMES.join(', ')}`,\n      )\n    }\n    if (value !== undefined && !Number.isFinite(value)) {\n      throw new ValidationError(\n        `judge-sentinel: ${source}.metrics.${key} is not a finite number: ${String(value)}`,\n      )\n    }\n  }\n}\n\n// ── Snapshot adapters — real instrument output → SentinelSnapshot ───\n\n/**\n * From `calibrateJudge` / `calibrateJudgeContinuous` output. Prefers the\n * un-rounded continuous κ_w when the report carries one (integer κ\n * discards information for [0,1] judges).\n */\nexport function snapshotFromCalibration(\n  report: CalibrationResult | ContinuousCalibrationResult,\n  meta: SnapshotMeta,\n): SentinelSnapshot {\n  const kappa = 'weightedKappaContinuous' in report ? report.weightedKappaContinuous : report.kappa\n  if (!Number.isFinite(kappa)) {\n    throw new ValidationError(\n      `snapshotFromCalibration: κ is not finite (n=${report.n}) — calibrate against ≥2 joined golden items before snapshotting`,\n    )\n  }\n  const snapshot: SentinelSnapshot = { ...meta, metrics: { calibrationKappa: kappa } }\n  validateSentinelSnapshot(snapshot)\n  return snapshot\n}\n\n/**\n * From `corpusInterRaterAgreement` (statistics.ts) or `continuousAgreement`\n * (judge-calibration.ts) output. IRR = ICC(2,1) — the reliability\n * coefficient both instruments compute. For ensemble-level agreement,\n * `meta.judgeId` names the ensemble and `meta.judgeModel` pins its\n * composition (e.g. a joined list of member model strings).\n */\nexport function snapshotFromAgreement(\n  report: CorpusAgreementReport | ContinuousAgreement,\n  meta: SnapshotMeta,\n): SentinelSnapshot {\n  const irr = 'overallIcc' in report ? report.overallIcc : report.icc\n  if (!Number.isFinite(irr)) {\n    throw new ValidationError(\n      'snapshotFromAgreement: ICC is not finite — agreement needs ≥2 raters and ≥2 complete items',\n    )\n  }\n  const snapshot: SentinelSnapshot = { ...meta, metrics: { irr } }\n  validateSentinelSnapshot(snapshot)\n  return snapshot\n}\n\nexport interface SentinelSetOptions {\n  /** Max |judge − human| for an item to count as passed. Default 0.1 (tuned for [0,1] scores). */\n  tolerance?: number\n}\n\n/**\n * From a rerun of a fixed sentinel golden set: the same `GoldenItem`s the\n * judge was originally calibrated on, re-scored periodically. Pass rate =\n * fraction of joined items where the judge stays within `tolerance` of the\n * human score. Items the judge didn't score are excluded from the\n * denominator; zero joined items is an error, not a 0% pass rate.\n */\nexport function snapshotFromSentinelSet(\n  scores: CandidateScore[],\n  golden: GoldenItem[],\n  meta: SnapshotMeta,\n  options: SentinelSetOptions = {},\n): SentinelSnapshot {\n  const tolerance = options.tolerance ?? 0.1\n  if (!Number.isFinite(tolerance) || tolerance < 0) {\n    throw new ValidationError(\n      `snapshotFromSentinelSet: tolerance must be a finite number ≥ 0, got ${tolerance}`,\n    )\n  }\n  const goldenById = new Map<string, number>()\n  for (const item of golden) {\n    if (!Number.isFinite(item.humanScore)) {\n      throw new ValidationError(\n        `snapshotFromSentinelSet: golden item \"${item.itemId}\" has a non-finite humanScore`,\n      )\n    }\n    if (goldenById.has(item.itemId)) {\n      throw new ValidationError(`snapshotFromSentinelSet: duplicate golden itemId \"${item.itemId}\"`)\n    }\n    goldenById.set(item.itemId, item.humanScore)\n  }\n  let joined = 0\n  let passed = 0\n  for (const s of scores) {\n    const human = goldenById.get(s.itemId)\n    if (human === undefined) continue\n    if (!Number.isFinite(s.score)) {\n      throw new ValidationError(\n        `snapshotFromSentinelSet: judge score for item \"${s.itemId}\" is not finite`,\n      )\n    }\n    joined++\n    if (Math.abs(s.score - human) <= tolerance) passed++\n  }\n  if (joined === 0) {\n    throw new ValidationError(\n      'snapshotFromSentinelSet: no judge scores joined the golden set — itemIds mismatch or empty sentinel run',\n    )\n  }\n  const snapshot: SentinelSnapshot = { ...meta, metrics: { sentinelPassRate: passed / joined } }\n  validateSentinelSnapshot(snapshot)\n  return snapshot\n}\n\n// ── Persistence ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────\n\nexport interface SentinelStore {\n  append(snapshot: SentinelSnapshot): Promise<void>\n  /** All snapshots (optionally for one judge), in append order. */\n  history(judgeId?: string): Promise<SentinelSnapshot[]>\n}\n\nexport function inMemorySentinelStore(initial: SentinelSnapshot[] = []): SentinelStore {\n  for (const s of initial) validateSentinelSnapshot(s)\n  const items = initial.map((s) => ({ ...s, metrics: { ...s.metrics } }))\n  return {\n    async append(snapshot) {\n      validateSentinelSnapshot(snapshot)\n      items.push({ ...snapshot, metrics: { ...snapshot.metrics } })\n    },\n    async history(judgeId) {\n      const all = items.map((s) => ({ ...s, metrics: { ...s.metrics } }))\n      return judgeId === undefined ? all : all.filter((s) => s.judgeId === judgeId)\n    },\n  }\n}\n\n/**\n * JSONL store — one snapshot per line, appended atomically per call.\n * A corrupt or shape-invalid line is a loud error naming the file and\n * line number: a sentinel history that silently drops records would\n * defeat the drift detection it exists to provide.\n */\nexport function fileSentinelStore(path: string): SentinelStore {\n  return {\n    async append(snapshot) {\n      validateSentinelSnapshot(snapshot)\n      const fs = await import('node:fs/promises')\n      const pathMod = await import('node:path')\n      await fs.mkdir(pathMod.dirname(path), { recursive: true })\n      await fs.appendFile(path, `${JSON.stringify(snapshot)}\\n`, 'utf8')\n    },\n    async history(judgeId) {\n      const fs = await import('node:fs/promises')\n      let raw: string\n      try {\n        raw = await fs.readFile(path, 'utf8')\n      } catch (err) {\n        if ((err as NodeJS.ErrnoException).code === 'ENOENT') return []\n        throw err\n      }\n      const lines = raw.split('\\n')\n      const snapshots: SentinelSnapshot[] = []\n      for (let i = 0; i < lines.length; i++) {\n        const line = lines[i]!\n        if (line.trim().length === 0) continue\n        let parsed: unknown\n        try {\n          parsed = JSON.parse(line)\n        } catch (err) {\n          throw new ValidationError(\n            `judge-sentinel: store at ${path} has a corrupt JSONL line ${i + 1}: ${(err as Error).message}`,\n          )\n        }\n        const snapshot = parsed as SentinelSnapshot\n        validateSentinelSnapshot(snapshot, `${path}:${i + 1}`)\n        snapshots.push(snapshot)\n      }\n      return judgeId === undefined ? snapshots : snapshots.filter((s) => s.judgeId === judgeId)\n    },\n  }\n}\n\n// ── Trend report ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────\n\nexport interface SentinelThresholds {\n  /** Floor for irr — below it the judge ensemble is unreliable regardless of trend. Default 0.6. */\n  minIrr?: number\n  /** Max tolerated calibrationKappa drop vs the series baseline. Default 0.15. */\n  maxKappaDrop?: number\n  /** Max tolerated sentinelPassRate drop vs the series baseline. Default 0.1. */\n  maxSentinelDrop?: number\n  /** Newest snapshot older than this (days, vs asOf) = the sentinel itself went blind. Default 30. */\n  staleAfterDays?: number\n}\n\nexport interface JudgeSentinelOptions {\n  /** Caller-supplied ISO timestamp staleness is measured against. */\n  asOf: string\n  thresholds?: SentinelThresholds\n  /** Forwarded to `analyzeSeries` (window, stableCv, driftRun). */\n  convergence?: SeriesConvergenceOptions\n}\n\nexport interface SentinelTrend {\n  judgeId: string\n  metric: SentinelMetricName\n  /** Verbatim `analyzeSeries` state for this judge×metric history. */\n  state: SeriesConvergenceResult['state']\n  /** Newest value in the series. */\n  current: number\n  /** Oldest value in the series — the reference the drop thresholds compare against. */\n  baseline: number\n  /** current − baseline (signed; negative = decayed). */\n  drift: number\n  alarmed: boolean\n  reason?: string\n}\n\nexport interface SentinelReport {\n  perJudge: SentinelTrend[]\n  alarms: string[]\n  healthy: boolean\n  /**\n   * `judgeId:metric` pairs with too few snapshots for the convergence\n   * machine. Named, not counted — a blind spot you can't see is a blind\n   * spot you won't fix. Floor/drop checks still apply to thin series, so\n   * insufficient history alone never masks an alarm.\n   */\n  insufficientHistory: string[]\n}\n\nconst MS_PER_DAY = 86_400_000\n\nexport function judgeSentinelReport(\n  history: SentinelSnapshot[],\n  opts: JudgeSentinelOptions,\n): SentinelReport {\n  const asOfMs = parseIso(opts.asOf, 'asOf')\n  const minIrr = opts.thresholds?.minIrr ?? 0.6\n  const maxKappaDrop = opts.thresholds?.maxKappaDrop ?? 0.15\n  const maxSentinelDrop = opts.thresholds?.maxSentinelDrop ?? 0.1\n  const staleAfterDays = opts.thresholds?.staleAfterDays ?? 30\n\n  const byJudge = new Map<string, Array<SentinelSnapshot & { atMs: number }>>()\n  for (const snapshot of history) {\n    validateSentinelSnapshot(snapshot)\n    const atMs = parseIso(snapshot.at, `snapshot.at (judge \"${snapshot.judgeId}\")`)\n    const arr = byJudge.get(snapshot.judgeId) ?? []\n    arr.push({ ...snapshot, atMs })\n    byJudge.set(snapshot.judgeId, arr)\n  }\n\n  const perJudge: SentinelTrend[] = []\n  const alarms: string[] = []\n  const insufficientHistory: string[] = []\n\n  for (const judgeId of [...byJudge.keys()].sort()) {\n    const snaps = byJudge.get(judgeId)!.sort((a, b) => a.atMs - b.atMs)\n    const newest = snaps[snaps.length - 1]!\n\n    const ageDays = (asOfMs - newest.atMs) / MS_PER_DAY\n    if (ageDays > staleAfterDays) {\n      alarms.push(\n        `judge \"${judgeId}\": stale — newest snapshot ${newest.at} is ${ageDays.toFixed(1)}d old vs asOf (limit ${staleAfterDays}d)`,\n      )\n    }\n\n    // Silent-upgrade trap: only the latest model change matters for current\n    // trust, and only golden-grounded metrics clear it — irr alone proves\n    // judges still agree with each other, not that they're still right.\n    let changeIdx = -1\n    for (let i = 1; i < snaps.length; i++) {\n      if (snaps[i]!.judgeModel !== snaps[i - 1]!.judgeModel) changeIdx = i\n    }\n    if (changeIdx >= 0) {\n      const recalibrated = snaps\n        .slice(changeIdx)\n        .some(\n          (s) =>\n            Number.isFinite(s.metrics.calibrationKappa) ||\n            Number.isFinite(s.metrics.sentinelPassRate),\n        )\n      if (!recalibrated) {\n        alarms.push(\n          `judge \"${judgeId}\": model changed \"${snaps[changeIdx - 1]!.judgeModel}\" → \"${snaps[changeIdx]!.judgeModel}\" at ${snaps[changeIdx]!.at} with no post-change calibration snapshot — silent-upgrade trap; rerun calibrateJudge or the sentinel set against the new model`,\n        )\n      }\n    }\n\n    for (const metric of SENTINEL_METRIC_NAMES) {\n      const values = snaps\n        .filter((s) => typeof s.metrics[metric] === 'number')\n        .map((s) => s.metrics[metric]!)\n      if (values.length === 0) continue\n\n      const convergence = analyzeSeries(values, opts.convergence)\n      if (convergence.state === 'insufficient-data')\n        insufficientHistory.push(`${judgeId}:${metric}`)\n\n      const current = values[values.length - 1]!\n      const baseline = values[0]!\n      const drift = current - baseline\n      const reasons: string[] = []\n      if (convergence.state === 'drifting-down') {\n        reasons.push(\n          `convergence state drifting-down (tail run ${convergence.tailRun}, window mean ${convergence.windowMean.toFixed(3)})`,\n        )\n      }\n      if (metric === 'irr' && current < minIrr) {\n        reasons.push(`irr ${current.toFixed(3)} below floor ${minIrr}`)\n      }\n      if (metric === 'calibrationKappa' && baseline - current > maxKappaDrop) {\n        reasons.push(\n          `calibrationKappa dropped ${(baseline - current).toFixed(3)} from baseline ${baseline.toFixed(3)} (limit ${maxKappaDrop})`,\n        )\n      }\n      if (metric === 'sentinelPassRate' && baseline - current > maxSentinelDrop) {\n        reasons.push(\n          `sentinelPassRate dropped ${(baseline - current).toFixed(3)} from baseline ${baseline.toFixed(3)} (limit ${maxSentinelDrop})`,\n        )\n      }\n\n      const alarmed = reasons.length > 0\n      const trend: SentinelTrend = {\n        judgeId,\n        metric,\n        state: convergence.state,\n        current,\n        baseline,\n        drift,\n        alarmed,\n      }\n      if (alarmed) {\n        trend.reason = reasons.join('; ')\n        alarms.push(`judge \"${judgeId}\" ${metric}: ${trend.reason}`)\n      }\n      perJudge.push(trend)\n    }\n  }\n\n  return { perJudge, alarms, healthy: alarms.length === 0, insufficientHistory }\n}\n\n// ── Verdict stamp ────────────────────────────────────────────────────\n\nexport interface EvalHealthStamp {\n  healthy: boolean\n  alarms: string[]\n}\n\n/**\n * The object a campaign attaches to its verdicts. Compute it from the\n * sentinel report in a post-campaign hook (or a nightly job feeding the\n * next day's campaigns) and store it alongside the verdict payload.\n * `healthy: false` means the judges that produced those verdicts have an\n * unresolved drift / decay / silent-upgrade / staleness alarm — treat the\n * verdicts as carrying an integrity warning until recalibration clears it.\n */\nexport function evalHealthStamp(report: SentinelReport): EvalHealthStamp {\n  return { healthy: report.healthy, alarms: [...report.alarms] 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package/dist/{mint-BV6tLVWl.js → mint-DfODW1KW.js}

@@ -1,8 +1,8 @@
 import { s as ValidationError } from "./errors-Dngq5h35.js";
 import { a as scoreOrigin, i as rolloutRewardFields } from "./reward-nw2xZGZG.js";
-import { s as runTaskScore } from "./run-record-D2lDdSAz.js";
+import { s as runTaskScore } from "./run-record-BC0ebuRP.js";
 import { t as buildTrajectory } from "./trajectory-D_7rLrvE.js";
-import { i as ROLLOUT_SCHEMA, s as assertMinted } from "./schema-C6DW4ZHR.js";
+import { a as assertMinted, r as ROLLOUT_SCHEMA } from "./schema-C1aaAxTf.js";
 //#region src/rollout/mint.ts
 /**
 * Rollout minting — `tangle.rollout.v1` lines joined from the records the
@@ -315,4 +315,4 @@ async function mintRolloutRows(records, store, options = {}) {
 //#endregion
 export { unmintableReasons as n, mintRolloutRows as t };
 
-//# sourceMappingURL=mint-BV6tLVWl.js.map
+//# sourceMappingURL=mint-DfODW1KW.js.map