@tangle-network/agent-eval 0.147.0 → 0.148.0

package/dist/{define-agent-eval-BqWFz3sK.js.map → define-agent-eval-CvZQW4u9.js.map}

@@ -1 +1 @@
-{"version":3,"file":"define-agent-eval-BqWFz3sK.js","names":[],"sources":["../src/contamination-guard.ts","../src/contract/analyze-runs.ts","../src/contract/self-improve.ts","../src/contract/define-agent-eval.ts"],"sourcesContent":["/**\n * ContaminationGuard — ensures held-out scenarios don't leak into\n * training/prompt paths, and flags model memorization.\n *\n * Three probes:\n *   1. `checkCanaries(output, scenario)` — if the scenario carries a\n *      canary token, it MUST NOT appear in the agent's output.\n *      Canaries are strings that are statistically impossible to\n *      reconstruct from the scenario description alone — so if they\n *      echo back, the model memorized them.\n *   2. `canaryLeakView(store)` — cross-corpus view of every run whose\n *      output contained a canary, with the offending scenario + run.\n *   3. `HoldoutAuditor` — wraps a Dataset and emits a structured error\n *      on any code path that reads holdout scenarios but doesn't flag\n *      `purpose: 'evaluation'`. Keeps engineers honest.\n */\n\nimport type { DatasetScenario } from './dataset'\nimport { llmSpans } from './trace/query'\nimport type { TraceStore } from './trace/store'\n\nexport interface CanaryLeak {\n  scenarioId: string\n  canary: string\n  runId?: string\n  evidence: string\n}\n\nexport function checkCanaries(output: string, scenarios: DatasetScenario[]): CanaryLeak[] {\n  const leaks: CanaryLeak[] = []\n  for (const s of scenarios) {\n    if (!s.canary) continue\n    if (output.includes(s.canary)) {\n      leaks.push({ scenarioId: s.id, canary: s.canary, evidence: excerpt(output, s.canary) })\n    }\n  }\n  return leaks\n}\n\n/**\n * Behavioral canary: tests the AGENT, not the eval grep.\n *\n *   - `forbiddenPattern` PRESENT in output ⇒ AGENT EMITTED BAD CONTENT ⇒ LEAK.\n *   - `forbiddenPattern` ABSENT from output ⇒ AGENT HELD THE LINE       ⇒ PASS.\n *\n * Use when running known-bad-prompt scenarios against the agent under\n * test and you want to know if the agent misbehaved. The classical\n * {@link checkCanaries} / {@link import('./canary').runCanaries | runCanaries}\n * test whether the eval check fires when the bad output is forced\n * into the eval flow — different question, different answer.\n *\n * Pattern resolution order (first match wins):\n *   1. `scenario.forbiddenPattern` — if it parses as `/body/flags`,\n *      treated as a regex; otherwise a literal substring.\n *   2. `scenario.canary` — literal substring fallback so the helper\n *      works on existing scenario fixtures.\n *\n * Returns `null` when nothing forbidden was found OR the scenario\n * declared no pattern.\n */\nexport function checkBehavioralCanary(\n  output: string,\n  scenario: DatasetScenario,\n): CanaryLeak | null {\n  const pattern = scenario.forbiddenPattern ?? scenario.canary\n  if (!pattern) return null\n  const hit = matchForbidden(output, pattern)\n  if (!hit) return null\n  return {\n    scenarioId: scenario.id,\n    canary: pattern,\n    evidence: excerpt(output, hit),\n  }\n}\n\n/**\n * Behavioral canary over many (scenario, output) pairs. Sibling to\n * {@link import('./canary').runCanaries | runCanaries} — same idea\n * (run-many → report) but the question being answered is \"did the\n * AGENT misbehave?\" rather than \"did the EVAL grep fire?\".\n *\n * Returns one `CanaryLeak` per pair where the agent's output\n * contained its scenario's `forbiddenPattern` (or `canary` fallback).\n */\nexport function runBehavioralCanaries(\n  cases: Array<{ scenario: DatasetScenario; output: string; runId?: string }>,\n): CanaryLeak[] {\n  const leaks: CanaryLeak[] = []\n  for (const c of cases) {\n    const leak = checkBehavioralCanary(c.output, c.scenario)\n    if (leak) leaks.push({ ...leak, runId: c.runId ?? leak.runId })\n  }\n  return leaks\n}\n\n/**\n * Resolve a forbidden-pattern string to the matched substring inside\n * `output`. `/body/flags` notation is interpreted as a regex; anything\n * else is a literal substring.\n */\nfunction matchForbidden(output: string, pattern: string): string | null {\n  const re = tryParseRegex(pattern)\n  if (re) {\n    const m = output.match(re)\n    return m && m[0].length > 0 ? m[0] : null\n  }\n  return output.includes(pattern) ? pattern : null\n}\n\nfunction tryParseRegex(pattern: string): RegExp | null {\n  if (pattern.length < 2 || pattern[0] !== '/') return null\n  const last = pattern.lastIndexOf('/')\n  if (last <= 0) return null\n  const body = pattern.slice(1, last)\n  const flags = pattern.slice(last + 1)\n  if (!/^[gimsuy]*$/.test(flags)) return null\n  try {\n    return new RegExp(body, flags)\n  } catch {\n    return null\n  }\n}\n\n/**\n * Scan the LLM-output history in a corpus; returns every case where a\n * canary from a known scenario appeared in agent output. Pass the full\n * set of scenarios whose canaries you care about (typically the whole\n * held-out slice).\n */\nexport async function canaryLeakView(\n  store: TraceStore,\n  scenarios: DatasetScenario[],\n): Promise<CanaryLeak[]> {\n  const targets = scenarios.filter((s) => !!s.canary)\n  if (targets.length === 0) return []\n  const spans = await llmSpans(store)\n  const leaks: CanaryLeak[] = []\n  for (const span of spans) {\n    const output = span.output ?? ''\n    for (const s of targets) {\n      if (s.canary && output.includes(s.canary)) {\n        leaks.push({\n          scenarioId: s.id,\n          canary: s.canary,\n          runId: span.runId,\n          evidence: excerpt(output, s.canary),\n        })\n      }\n    }\n  }\n  return leaks\n}\n\nexport class HoldoutAuditor {\n  private scenarios: DatasetScenario[]\n  private accessLog: Array<{ scenarioId: string; purpose: string; at: number }> = []\n\n  constructor(scenarios: DatasetScenario[]) {\n    this.scenarios = scenarios\n  }\n\n  /** Retrieve a holdout scenario for a declared purpose. Non-'evaluation' throws. */\n  get(scenarioId: string, purpose: 'evaluation' | 'debugging'): DatasetScenario {\n    if (purpose !== 'evaluation' && purpose !== 'debugging') {\n      throw new Error(\n        `HoldoutAuditor.get: purpose must be 'evaluation' or 'debugging', got ${purpose}`,\n      )\n    }\n    const s = this.scenarios.find((x) => x.id === scenarioId)\n    if (!s) throw new Error(`holdout scenario \"${scenarioId}\" not found`)\n    this.accessLog.push({ scenarioId, purpose, at: Date.now() })\n    return s\n  }\n\n  getAccessLog(): ReadonlyArray<{ scenarioId: string; purpose: string; at: number }> {\n    return this.accessLog\n  }\n}\n\nfunction excerpt(source: string, needle: string): string {\n  const at = source.indexOf(needle)\n  if (at < 0) return ''\n  const start = Math.max(0, at - 30)\n  const end = Math.min(source.length, at + needle.length + 30)\n  return (start > 0 ? '…' : '') + source.slice(start, end) + (end < source.length ? '…' : '')\n}\n","/**\n * # `analyzeRuns()` — turn a set of agent runs into an actionable decision packet.\n *\n * Wires the substrate's statistical, calibration, clustering, Pareto, and\n * release-confidence primitives into one `InsightReport`. Two top-level\n * entry points use this function:\n *\n *   - `selfImprove()` calls it on the campaign output to attach a packet\n *     to every run.\n *   - Consumers with observed `RunRecord[]` (production traces, gold\n *     corpora, approve/reject tables) call it directly via `analyzeRuns()`\n *     for analysis without a closed loop.\n *\n * Every section is opt-in based on what the input data supports — the\n * function never invents signal. If runs carry no judge scores, `judges`\n * is empty. If there's no baseline/candidate split, `lift` is undefined.\n * If no `analyst` is wired, `failureClusters` is undefined.\n *\n * The `recommendations` array is the human-readable layer; everything\n * else is the evidence backing each recommendation.\n */\n\nimport type { AnalystRegistry } from '../analyst/registry'\nimport type { AnalystFinding } from '../analyst/types'\nimport { welchsTTest } from '../baseline'\nimport { checkCanaries } from '../contamination-guard'\nimport type { DatasetScenario } from '../dataset'\nimport { continuousAgreement } from '../judge-calibration'\nimport { pairRunRecords } from '../paired-arms'\nimport { observedSplitScore } from '../rollout/reward'\nimport {\n  type RunRecord,\n  type RunTerminalOutcome,\n  type RunTokenUsage,\n  validateRunRecord,\n} from '../run-record'\nimport {\n  BOOTSTRAP_GATE_MIN_N,\n  pairedBootstrap,\n  pairedCohensDz,\n  pairedMde,\n  pairedTTest,\n  pearsonR,\n  requiredPairedSampleSize,\n  spearmanR,\n} from '../statistics'\nimport { type ParetoFigureSpec, paretoChart } from '../summary-report'\nimport type { FailureClass } from '../trace/schema'\n\nimport type {\n  CostProvenanceSummary,\n  ExecutionInsight,\n  FailureClassTally,\n  FailureClusterInsight,\n  InsightReport,\n  InterRaterInsight,\n  JudgeInsight,\n  LiftInsight,\n  MetricDelta,\n  OutcomeCorrelationInsight,\n  PriorPeriodComparison,\n  Recommendation,\n  ScalarDistribution,\n  TokenUsageInsight,\n} from './insight-report'\n\n// ── Public API ───────────────────────────────────────────────────────\n\nexport interface AnalyzeRunsOptions {\n  /** The runs to analyze. */\n  runs: RunRecord[]\n  /** Which split to score against when reading composite from RunOutcome.\n   *  Default: holdout when ANY run has a `holdoutScore`, else search. */\n  split?: 'search' | 'holdout' | 'auto'\n  /** Pairwise analysis configuration. When both `baselineCandidateId` and\n   *  `candidateCandidateId` are present, lift is computed on paired\n   *  (experimentId, scenarioId, seed) identities shared between the two sides.\n   *  Unmatched rows remain visible in the lift result. */\n  baselineCandidateId?: string\n  candidateCandidateId?: string\n  /** Canary scenarios — checked against every run's raw output for\n   *  holdout contamination. */\n  canaryScenarios?: DatasetScenario[]\n  /** Analyst registry for failure clustering. When omitted, the\n   *  `failureClusters` section is left undefined. */\n  analyst?: AnalystRegistry\n  /** Downstream outcome metric per run (e.g. engagement rate, approval\n   *  rate, downstream pass rate). When present, the report includes\n   *  `outcomeCorrelation` + a simple linear reward model fit. */\n  outcomeSignal?: {\n    metric: string\n    valueByRunId: Record<string, number>\n  }\n  /** Multi-rater feedback for inter-rater agreement. Each entry is one\n   *  rater's score for one run. Two or more raters → kappa + disagreement\n   *  triage list. */\n  raterScores?: Array<{ runId: string; rater: string; score: number }>\n  /** Number of histogram bins for distributional summaries. Default 12. */\n  histogramBins?: number\n  /** Decision threshold — the smallest composite lift the caller cares\n   *  about. Used by the recommendations engine to call ship vs hold.\n   *  Default 0.02. */\n  decisionThreshold?: number\n  /** Optional prior-period runs. When set, the report includes\n   *  `priorPeriodComparison` with per-metric Welch-CI deltas and\n   *  recommendations fire on statistically significant regressions.\n   *  The two windows do NOT have to share scenarios — the comparison\n   *  is two-sample unpaired (the substrate's `lift` field uses paired\n   *  bootstrap on shared (experimentId, scenarioId, seed) identities; this is the\n   *  shape for \"this week vs last week\" rather than \"candidate vs\n   *  baseline within a campaign\"). */\n  baselineRuns?: RunRecord[]\n  /** Human-readable label for the baseline window, e.g. \"vs prior 7\n   *  days\", \"vs v3.1 release\". Surfaces in recommendations + UI. */\n  baselineLabel?: string\n}\n\nexport interface SummarizeExecutionOptions {\n  runs: RunRecord[]\n  histogramBins?: number\n}\n\nexport interface ExecutionReport {\n  execution: ExecutionInsight\n  costProvenance: CostProvenanceSummary\n}\n\n/** Summarize runtime facts without interpreting task quality or promotion readiness. */\nexport function summarizeExecution(opts: SummarizeExecutionOptions): ExecutionReport {\n  const runs = opts.runs.map(validateRunRecord)\n  const bins = opts.histogramBins ?? 12\n  return {\n    execution: computeExecutionInsight(runs, bins),\n    costProvenance: summarizeCostProvenance(runs),\n  }\n}\n\n/** A bootstrap interval with no spread: every resample landed on the same\n *  value, so the interval carries no information about how far the point\n *  estimate could be wrong and cannot support a directional claim. */\nfunction zeroWidth(ci: readonly [number, number]): boolean {\n  return !Number.isFinite(ci[0]) || !Number.isFinite(ci[1]) || ci[0] === ci[1]\n}\n\nexport async function analyzeRuns(opts: AnalyzeRunsOptions): Promise<InsightReport> {\n  const runs = opts.runs.map(validateRunRecord)\n  const bins = opts.histogramBins ?? 12\n  const threshold = opts.decisionThreshold ?? 0.02\n  if (!Number.isFinite(threshold)) {\n    throw new Error(`analyzeRuns: decisionThreshold must be finite, got ${threshold}`)\n  }\n  const split = resolveSplit(runs, opts.split ?? 'auto')\n\n  const compositeWithIds = runs\n    .map((r) => ({ runId: r.runId, score: compositeOf(r, split) }))\n    .filter((p) => Number.isFinite(p.score))\n  const composite = distributionOf(\n    compositeWithIds.map((p) => p.score),\n    bins,\n    compositeWithIds,\n  )\n\n  const perDimension = computePerDimension(runs, bins)\n  const { execution, costProvenance: provenance } = summarizeExecution({\n    runs,\n    histogramBins: bins,\n  })\n  const knownCostRuns = runs.filter((run) => run.costProvenance.kind !== 'uncaptured')\n  const costs = knownCostRuns.map((r) => r.costUsd).filter(isFiniteNumber)\n  const costDist = distributionOf(costs, bins)\n  const pareto = paretoChart(knownCostRuns, { split })\n  const degraded: { cost?: string; pareto?: string } = {}\n  if (provenance.uncaptured.n > 0) {\n    degraded.cost = diagnoseCostCoverage(runs, provenance)\n  } else if (costs.length === 0 || costs.every((c) => c === 0)) {\n    degraded.cost = `all ${runs.length} explicitly observed or estimated USD values are $0`\n  }\n  if (pareto.points.length < 2) {\n    degraded.pareto =\n      pareto.points.length === 0\n        ? 'no candidates — Pareto unavailable'\n        : 'single candidate — Pareto is a single point, not a frontier'\n  }\n  const costQuality = {\n    cost: costDist,\n    pareto,\n    provenance,\n    ...(degraded.cost || degraded.pareto ? { degraded } : {}),\n  }\n\n  const judges = computeJudgeInsights(runs)\n\n  const interRater = opts.raterScores ? computeInterRater(opts.raterScores) : undefined\n\n  const lift = computeLift(runs, opts.baselineCandidateId, opts.candidateCandidateId, split)\n\n  const failureClusters = opts.analyst\n    ? await computeFailureClusters(runs, opts.analyst, split)\n    : undefined\n\n  const failureClasses = computeFailureClasses(runs, split)\n\n  const contamination = opts.canaryScenarios\n    ? computeContamination(runs, opts.canaryScenarios)\n    : undefined\n\n  const outcomeCorrelation = opts.outcomeSignal\n    ? computeOutcomeCorrelation(runs, opts.outcomeSignal, split)\n    : undefined\n\n  const release = buildReleaseScorecard(composite, lift, contamination)\n\n  const priorPeriodComparison = opts.baselineRuns\n    ? computePriorPeriodComparison(runs, opts.baselineRuns, split, opts.baselineLabel)\n    : undefined\n\n  const recommendations = buildRecommendations({\n    composite,\n    judges,\n    interRater,\n    lift,\n    failureClusters,\n    failureClasses,\n    contamination,\n    outcomeCorrelation,\n    priorPeriodComparison,\n    threshold,\n  })\n\n  return {\n    n: runs.length,\n    execution,\n    composite,\n    perDimension,\n    costQuality,\n    judges,\n    interRater,\n    lift,\n    failureClusters,\n    contamination,\n    outcomeCorrelation,\n    release,\n    ...(failureClasses ? { failureClasses } : {}),\n    ...(priorPeriodComparison ? { priorPeriodComparison } : {}),\n    recommendations,\n  }\n}\n\nfunction computeExecutionInsight(runs: RunRecord[], bins: number): ExecutionInsight {\n  const aggregateRows = runs.flatMap((run) => {\n    const usage = aggregateTokenUsage(run)\n    return usage ? [{ usage, costUsd: finiteRaw(run, 'aggregate_cost_usd') }] : []\n  })\n  const aggregateCosts = aggregateRows.flatMap((row) =>\n    row.costUsd !== undefined ? [row.costUsd] : [],\n  )\n  const modelCounts = new Map<string, number>()\n  let executionErrorRuns = 0\n  let executionErrorEvents = 0\n  let errorReportingRuns = 0\n  let errorSpanEvents = 0\n  let errorSpanReportingRuns = 0\n  const terminalOutcomes: Record<RunTerminalOutcome, number> = {\n    succeeded: 0,\n    failed: 0,\n    cancelled: 0,\n    incomplete: 0,\n    unknown: 0,\n  }\n  const errorsByTerminalOutcome: ExecutionInsight['executionErrors']['byTerminalOutcome'] = {\n    succeeded: { withErrors: 0, withoutErrors: 0, unreported: 0 },\n    failed: { withErrors: 0, withoutErrors: 0, unreported: 0 },\n    cancelled: { withErrors: 0, withoutErrors: 0, unreported: 0 },\n    incomplete: { withErrors: 0, withoutErrors: 0, unreported: 0 },\n    unknown: { withErrors: 0, withoutErrors: 0, unreported: 0 },\n  }\n  let modelCallRuns = 0\n  let modelCallEvents = 0\n  let modelCallReportingRuns = 0\n\n  for (const run of runs) {\n    modelCounts.set(run.model, (modelCounts.get(run.model) ?? 0) + 1)\n    const terminalOutcome = run.terminalOutcome\n    terminalOutcomes[terminalOutcome] += 1\n    const modelCalls = nonNegativeCountRaw(run, 'llm_span_count')\n    if (modelCalls !== undefined) {\n      modelCallEvents += modelCalls\n      modelCallReportingRuns += 1\n    }\n    const usage = run.tokenUsage\n    if (\n      (modelCalls ?? 0) > 0 ||\n      usage.input > 0 ||\n      usage.output > 0 ||\n      (usage.cached ?? 0) > 0 ||\n      (usage.cacheWrite ?? 0) > 0\n    ) {\n      modelCallRuns += 1\n    }\n    const errorEvents = reportedExecutionErrorEvents(run)\n    if (errorEvents !== undefined) {\n      executionErrorEvents += errorEvents\n      errorReportingRuns += 1\n      if (errorEvents > 0) {\n        executionErrorRuns += 1\n        errorsByTerminalOutcome[terminalOutcome].withErrors += 1\n      } else errorsByTerminalOutcome[terminalOutcome].withoutErrors += 1\n    } else errorsByTerminalOutcome[terminalOutcome].unreported += 1\n    const reportedErrorSpans = nonNegativeCountRaw(run, 'error_span_count')\n    if (reportedErrorSpans !== undefined) {\n      errorSpanEvents += reportedErrorSpans\n      errorSpanReportingRuns += 1\n    }\n  }\n\n  return {\n    durationMs: distributionOf(\n      runs.map((run) => run.wallMs),\n      bins,\n    ),\n    queueMs: distributionOf(\n      runs.filter((run) => run.queueMs !== undefined).map((run) => run.queueMs!),\n      bins,\n    ),\n    tokenUsage: summarizeTokenUsage(\n      runs.map((run) => run.tokenUsage),\n      bins,\n    ),\n    aggregateUsage: {\n      runs: aggregateRows.length,\n      tokenUsage: summarizeTokenUsage(\n        aggregateRows.map((row) => row.usage),\n        bins,\n      ),\n      costUsd: distributionOf(aggregateCosts, bins),\n      totalCostUsd: aggregateCosts.reduce((total, value) => total + value, 0),\n    },\n    models: [...modelCounts.entries()]\n      .map(([model, count]) => ({ model, runs: count }))\n      .sort((left, right) => right.runs - left.runs || left.model.localeCompare(right.model)),\n    modelCalls: {\n      runs: modelCallRuns,\n      events: modelCallEvents,\n      reportingRuns: modelCallReportingRuns,\n    },\n    executionErrors: {\n      runs: executionErrorRuns,\n      fraction: errorReportingRuns > 0 ? executionErrorRuns / errorReportingRuns : null,\n      events: executionErrorEvents,\n      reportingRuns: errorReportingRuns,\n      errorSpanEvents,\n      errorSpanReportingRuns,\n      byTerminalOutcome: errorsByTerminalOutcome,\n    },\n    terminalOutcomes,\n  }\n}\n\nfunction reportedExecutionErrorEvents(run: RunRecord): number | undefined {\n  return nonNegativeCountRaw(run, 'execution_error_count')\n}\n\nfunction nonNegativeCountRaw(run: RunRecord, key: string): number | undefined {\n  const value = finiteRaw(run, key)\n  return value !== undefined && Number.isInteger(value) && value >= 0 ? value : undefined\n}\n\nfunction summarizeTokenUsage(usages: RunTokenUsage[], bins: number): TokenUsageInsight {\n  const reasoning = usages.flatMap((usage) =>\n    usage.reasoning !== undefined ? [usage.reasoning] : [],\n  )\n  const cached = usages.flatMap((usage) => (usage.cached !== undefined ? [usage.cached] : []))\n  const cacheWrite = usages.flatMap((usage) =>\n    usage.cacheWrite !== undefined ? [usage.cacheWrite] : [],\n  )\n  return {\n    input: distributionOf(\n      usages.map((usage) => usage.input),\n      bins,\n    ),\n    output: distributionOf(\n      usages.map((usage) => usage.output),\n      bins,\n    ),\n    reasoning: distributionOf(reasoning, bins),\n    cached: distributionOf(cached, bins),\n    cacheWrite: distributionOf(cacheWrite, bins),\n    totals: {\n      input: usages.reduce((total, usage) => total + usage.input, 0),\n      output: usages.reduce((total, usage) => total + usage.output, 0),\n      reasoning: reasoning.reduce((total, value) => total + value, 0),\n      cached: cached.reduce((total, value) => total + value, 0),\n      cacheWrite: cacheWrite.reduce((total, value) => total + value, 0),\n    },\n  }\n}\n\nfunction aggregateTokenUsage(run: RunRecord): RunTokenUsage | undefined {\n  const input = finiteRaw(run, 'aggregate_prompt_tokens')\n  const output = finiteRaw(run, 'aggregate_completion_tokens')\n  const reasoning = finiteRaw(run, 'aggregate_reasoning_tokens')\n  const cached = finiteRaw(run, 'aggregate_cached_tokens')\n  const cacheWrite = finiteRaw(run, 'aggregate_cache_write_tokens')\n  if (\n    input === undefined &&\n    output === undefined &&\n    reasoning === undefined &&\n    cached === undefined &&\n    cacheWrite === undefined\n  )\n    return undefined\n  return {\n    input: input ?? 0,\n    output: output ?? 0,\n    ...(reasoning !== undefined ? { reasoning } : {}),\n    ...(cached !== undefined ? { cached } : {}),\n    ...(cacheWrite !== undefined ? { cacheWrite } : {}),\n  }\n}\n\nfunction finiteRaw(run: RunRecord, key: string): number | undefined {\n  const value = run.outcome.raw[key]\n  return typeof value === 'number' && Number.isFinite(value) && value >= 0 ? value : undefined\n}\n\nfunction summarizeCostProvenance(runs: RunRecord[]): CostProvenanceSummary {\n  const summary: CostProvenanceSummary = {\n    observed: { n: 0, totalUsd: 0 },\n    estimated: { n: 0, totalUsd: 0 },\n    uncaptured: { n: 0 },\n    knownFraction: 0,\n  }\n  for (const run of runs) {\n    const cost = run.costProvenance\n    if (cost.kind === 'uncaptured') {\n      summary.uncaptured.n += 1\n    } else {\n      summary[cost.kind].n += 1\n      summary[cost.kind].totalUsd += cost.usd\n    }\n  }\n  const known = summary.observed.n + summary.estimated.n\n  summary.knownFraction = runs.length > 0 ? known / runs.length : 0\n  return summary\n}\n\nfunction diagnoseCostCoverage(runs: RunRecord[], provenance: CostProvenanceSummary): string {\n  const uncaptured = provenance.uncaptured.n\n  const known = provenance.observed.n + provenance.estimated.n\n  if (uncaptured === runs.length) {\n    return `USD cost uncaptured for all ${runs.length} runs — no observed or estimated USD values; token and wall-time metrics remain available.`\n  }\n  return `USD cost uncaptured for ${uncaptured}/${runs.length} runs; excluded those rows from cost statistics (${known}/${runs.length} retained: ${provenance.observed.n} observed, ${provenance.estimated.n} estimated).`\n}\n\n/**\n * Model-free task-failure tally.\n *\n * Explicit non-success classes are task-failure evidence.\n * A low task score without a class is counted as `unknown`.\n */\nfunction computeFailureClasses(\n  runs: RunRecord[],\n  split: 'search' | 'holdout',\n): FailureClassTally[] | undefined {\n  const counts = new Map<FailureClass, number>()\n  for (const r of runs) {\n    if (!isTaskFailure(r, split)) continue\n    const key =\n      r.failureClass !== undefined && r.failureClass !== 'success' ? r.failureClass : 'unknown'\n    counts.set(key, (counts.get(key) ?? 0) + 1)\n  }\n  if (counts.size === 0) return undefined\n  const n = runs.length\n  return [...counts.entries()]\n    .map(([failureClass, count]) => ({\n      failureClass,\n      count,\n      share: n > 0 ? count / n : 0,\n    }))\n    .sort((a, b) => b.count - a.count || a.failureClass.localeCompare(b.failureClass))\n}\n\n// ── Prior-period comparison ─────────────────────────────────────────\n\n/** Direction of the metric — does \"higher current\" mean better or worse?\n *  Composite + judge dimensions: higher is better. Cost + duration: lower\n *  is better. The recommendations engine flips the sign before judging\n *  regressed vs improved. */\ntype MetricDirection = 'higher-is-better' | 'lower-is-better'\n\nfunction computePriorPeriodComparison(\n  current: RunRecord[],\n  baseline: RunRecord[],\n  split: 'search' | 'holdout',\n  windowLabel: string | undefined,\n): PriorPeriodComparison | undefined {\n  if (current.length === 0 || baseline.length === 0) return undefined\n\n  const metrics: Record<string, MetricDelta> = {}\n  const directions: Record<string, MetricDirection> = {}\n\n  const compositeCurrent = current\n    .map((r) => compositeOf(r, split))\n    .filter(Number.isFinite) as number[]\n  const compositeBaseline = baseline\n    .map((r) => compositeOf(r, split))\n    .filter(Number.isFinite) as number[]\n  if (compositeCurrent.length > 0 && compositeBaseline.length > 0) {\n    metrics.composite = welchCompare(compositeBaseline, compositeCurrent)\n    directions.composite = 'higher-is-better'\n  }\n\n  const costCurrent = knownCostValues(current)\n  const costBaseline = knownCostValues(baseline)\n  if (costCurrent.length > 0 && costBaseline.length > 0) {\n    metrics.cost = welchCompare(costBaseline, costCurrent)\n    directions.cost = 'lower-is-better'\n  }\n\n  const durCurrent = current.map((r) => r.wallMs).filter(Number.isFinite)\n  const durBaseline = baseline.map((r) => r.wallMs).filter(Number.isFinite)\n  if (durCurrent.length > 0 && durBaseline.length > 0) {\n    metrics.duration = welchCompare(durBaseline, durCurrent)\n    directions.duration = 'lower-is-better'\n  }\n\n  const tokCurrent = current\n    .map((r) => (r.tokenUsage.input ?? 0) + (r.tokenUsage.output ?? 0))\n    .filter(Number.isFinite)\n  const tokBaseline = baseline\n    .map((r) => (r.tokenUsage.input ?? 0) + (r.tokenUsage.output ?? 0))\n    .filter(Number.isFinite)\n  if (tokCurrent.length > 0 && tokBaseline.length > 0) {\n    metrics.tokenUsage = welchCompare(tokBaseline, tokCurrent)\n    directions.tokenUsage = 'lower-is-better'\n  }\n\n  // Per-dimension judge comparisons — only for dimensions present in BOTH\n  // windows. We use perDimMean since per-judge nesting is finicky for\n  // two-sample comparisons across different judge configurations.\n  const dimsCurrent = collectPerDimension(current)\n  const dimsBaseline = collectPerDimension(baseline)\n  for (const dim of Object.keys(dimsCurrent)) {\n    const b = dimsBaseline[dim]\n    const c = dimsCurrent[dim]\n    if (!b || b.length === 0 || !c || c.length === 0) continue\n    metrics[`dim.${dim}`] = welchCompare(b, c)\n    directions[`dim.${dim}`] = 'higher-is-better'\n  }\n\n  const regressedMetrics: string[] = []\n  const improvedMetrics: string[] = []\n  const inconclusiveMetrics: string[] = []\n  for (const [name, delta] of Object.entries(metrics)) {\n    if (delta.status !== 'ok') {\n      inconclusiveMetrics.push(name)\n      continue\n    }\n    if (!delta.significant) continue\n    const dir = directions[name] ?? 'higher-is-better'\n    const better = dir === 'higher-is-better' ? delta.delta > 0 : delta.delta < 0\n    if (better) improvedMetrics.push(name)\n    else regressedMetrics.push(name)\n  }\n\n  return {\n    baselineN: baseline.length,\n    currentN: current.length,\n    ...(windowLabel ? { windowLabel } : {}),\n    metrics,\n    regressedMetrics,\n    improvedMetrics,\n    inconclusiveMetrics,\n  }\n}\n\nfunction knownCostValues(runs: RunRecord[]): number[] {\n  return runs\n    .filter((run) => run.costProvenance.kind !== 'uncaptured')\n    .map((run) => run.costUsd)\n    .filter(isFiniteNumber)\n}\n\nfunction isFiniteNumber(value: unknown): value is number {\n  return typeof value === 'number' && Number.isFinite(value)\n}\n\n/** Collect per-dimension values across runs (from outcome.judgeScores.perDimMean). */\nfunction collectPerDimension(runs: RunRecord[]): Record<string, number[]> {\n  const out: Record<string, number[]> = {}\n  for (const r of runs) {\n    const perDim = r.outcome.judgeScores?.perDimMean\n    if (!perDim) continue\n    for (const [dim, value] of Object.entries(perDim)) {\n      if (!Number.isFinite(value)) continue\n      if (!out[dim]) out[dim] = []\n      out[dim].push(value as number)\n    }\n  }\n  return out\n}\n\n/** Adapt the shared two-sample Welch result to the report contract. */\nfunction welchCompare(baseline: number[], current: number[]): MetricDelta {\n  const result = welchsTTest(baseline, current)\n  const base = {\n    current: result.meanB,\n    baseline: result.meanA,\n    delta: result.delta,\n    baselineN: baseline.length,\n    currentN: current.length,\n  }\n  if (result.status !== 'ok') {\n    return {\n      ...base,\n      status: result.status,\n      ci95: null,\n      pValue: null,\n      cohensD: null,\n      significant: false,\n    }\n  }\n  return {\n    ...base,\n    status: 'ok',\n    ci95: result.ci95,\n    pValue: result.p,\n    cohensD: result.cohensD,\n    significant: result.p < 0.05 && Math.abs(result.cohensD) >= 0.2,\n  }\n}\n\n// ── Composite + split selection ─────────────────────────────────────\n\nfunction resolveSplit(\n  runs: RunRecord[],\n  pref: 'search' | 'holdout' | 'auto',\n): 'search' | 'holdout' {\n  if (pref !== 'auto') return pref\n  const hasHoldout = runs.some((r) => Number.isFinite(observedSplitScore(r, 'holdout')))\n  return hasHoldout ? 'holdout' : 'search'\n}\n\n/**\n * RAW (`observedSplitScore`): `analyzeRuns` describes what a set of runs\n * reported, and every downstream reader of this composite — distributions,\n * per-candidate summaries, the reward-hacking correlation — needs the ungated\n * number to see an inflated run at all.\n */\nfunction compositeOf(run: RunRecord, split: 'search' | 'holdout'): number {\n  // Split-exact, no cross-split fallthrough: answering \"what did this run\n  // score on the split I am summarising\" with the other split's number\n  // silently mixes populations.\n  const score = observedSplitScore(run, split)\n  return Number.isFinite(score) ? (score as number) : Number.NaN\n}\n\n// ── Distribution helpers ────────────────────────────────────────────\n\nfunction distributionOf(\n  values: number[],\n  bins: number,\n  withIds?: Array<{ runId: string; score: number }>,\n): ScalarDistribution {\n  if (values.length === 0) {\n    return {\n      n: 0,\n      mean: null,\n      p50: null,\n      p95: null,\n      stddev: null,\n      min: null,\n      max: null,\n      histogram: [],\n    }\n  }\n  const sorted = [...values].sort((a, b) => a - b)\n  const n = sorted.length\n  const mean = sorted.reduce((s, v) => s + v, 0) / n\n  const variance = sorted.reduce((s, v) => s + (v - mean) ** 2, 0) / n\n  const stddev = Math.sqrt(variance)\n  const tailRuns = withIds\n    ? [...withIds].sort((a, b) => a.score - b.score).slice(0, Math.min(5, withIds.length))\n    : undefined\n  return {\n    n,\n    mean,\n    p50: percentile(sorted, 0.5),\n    p95: percentile(sorted, 0.95),\n    stddev,\n    min: sorted[0]!,\n    max: sorted[n - 1]!,\n    histogram: histogram(sorted, bins),\n    ...(tailRuns ? { tailRuns } : {}),\n  }\n}\n\nfunction percentile(sorted: number[], q: number): number {\n  if (sorted.length === 0) return 0\n  if (sorted.length === 1) return sorted[0]!\n  const idx = (sorted.length - 1) * q\n  const lo = Math.floor(idx)\n  const hi = Math.ceil(idx)\n  if (lo === hi) return sorted[lo]!\n  const w = idx - lo\n  return sorted[lo]! * (1 - w) + sorted[hi]! * w\n}\n\n/** Even-width histogram over the value range. Returns inclusive-lo /\n *  exclusive-hi bins (closed on right for the last bin) compatible with\n *  the substrate's `GainDistributionBin` shape. */\nfunction histogram(sorted: number[], bins: number): ScalarDistribution['histogram'] {\n  if (sorted.length === 0 || bins < 1) return []\n  const min = sorted[0]!\n  const max = sorted[sorted.length - 1]!\n  if (min === max) return [{ lo: min, hi: max, count: sorted.length }]\n  const width = (max - min) / bins\n  const out: ScalarDistribution['histogram'] = []\n  for (let i = 0; i < bins; i++) {\n    const lo = min + i * width\n    const hi = i === bins - 1 ? max : lo + width\n    out.push({ lo, hi, count: 0 })\n  }\n  for (const v of sorted) {\n    const idx = Math.min(bins - 1, Math.floor((v - min) / width))\n    out[idx]!.count++\n  }\n  return out\n}\n\nfunction computePerDimension(runs: RunRecord[], bins: number): Record<string, ScalarDistribution> {\n  // JudgeScoresRecord pre-aggregates `perDimMean` (mean across judges per\n  // dimension). We collect those means across runs to produce a per-dim\n  // distribution at the corpus level. Consumers who want per-judge\n  // dimension values reach into `perJudge[judgeId][dim]` themselves.\n  const byDim = new Map<string, number[]>()\n  for (const run of runs) {\n    const scores = run.outcome.judgeScores\n    if (!scores) continue\n    for (const [dim, value] of Object.entries(scores.perDimMean ?? {})) {\n      if (!Number.isFinite(value)) continue\n      const arr = byDim.get(dim) ?? []\n      arr.push(value)\n      byDim.set(dim, arr)\n    }\n  }\n  const out: Record<string, ScalarDistribution> = {}\n  for (const [dim, values] of byDim) out[dim] = distributionOf(values, bins)\n  return out\n}\n\n// ── Judge insights ──────────────────────────────────────────────────\n\nfunction computeJudgeInsights(runs: RunRecord[]): Record<string, JudgeInsight> {\n  // Each judge's per-run mean is the average of its per-dimension scores\n  // for that run. We aggregate those means across all runs each judge\n  // scored — giving consumers a \"this judge's typical verdict\" reading.\n  const out: Record<string, JudgeInsight> = {}\n  const byJudge = new Map<string, number[]>()\n  for (const run of runs) {\n    const scores = run.outcome.judgeScores\n    if (!scores?.perJudge) continue\n    for (const [judgeId, dims] of Object.entries(scores.perJudge)) {\n      const dimValues = Object.values(dims).filter(Number.isFinite) as number[]\n      if (dimValues.length === 0) continue\n      const judgeMean = dimValues.reduce((s, v) => s + v, 0) / dimValues.length\n      const arr = byJudge.get(judgeId) ?? []\n      arr.push(judgeMean)\n      byJudge.set(judgeId, arr)\n    }\n  }\n  for (const [judgeId, values] of byJudge) {\n    out[judgeId] = {\n      n: values.length,\n      meanScore: values.reduce((s, v) => s + v, 0) / values.length,\n    }\n  }\n  return out\n}\n\n// ── Inter-rater agreement ───────────────────────────────────────────\n\nfunction computeInterRater(\n  ratings: Array<{ runId: string; rater: string; score: number }>,\n): InterRaterInsight | undefined {\n  const byRun = new Map<string, Array<{ rater: string; score: number }>>()\n  for (const r of ratings) {\n    if (!Number.isFinite(r.score)) continue\n    const list = byRun.get(r.runId) ?? []\n    list.push({ rater: r.rater, score: r.score })\n    byRun.set(r.runId, list)\n  }\n  const raters = new Set(ratings.map((r) => r.rater))\n  const jointlyRated: string[] = []\n  for (const [runId, ratersForRun] of byRun) {\n    const seen = new Set(ratersForRun.map((r) => r.rater))\n    let all = true\n    for (const r of raters) if (!seen.has(r)) all = false\n    if (all) jointlyRated.push(runId)\n  }\n  if (raters.size < 2 || jointlyRated.length === 0) return undefined\n\n  const raterList = [...raters].sort()\n  const perPair: Record<string, number> = {}\n  for (let i = 0; i < raterList.length; i++) {\n    for (let j = i + 1; j < raterList.length; j++) {\n      const a = raterList[i]!\n      const b = raterList[j]!\n      const aScores: number[] = []\n      const bScores: number[] = []\n      for (const runId of jointlyRated) {\n        const ratersForRun = byRun.get(runId)!\n        const sa = ratersForRun.find((r) => r.rater === a)?.score\n        const sb = ratersForRun.find((r) => r.rater === b)?.score\n        if (sa !== undefined && sb !== undefined) {\n          aScores.push(sa)\n          bScores.push(sb)\n        }\n      }\n      const agreement = continuousAgreement(\n        aScores.map((score, index) => [score, bScores[index]!]),\n        { bootstrap: 0 },\n      )\n      perPair[`${a}::${b}`] = agreement.weightedKappa\n    }\n  }\n  const matrix = jointlyRated.map((runId) => {\n    const ratingsByRater = new Map(byRun.get(runId)!.map((rating) => [rating.rater, rating.score]))\n    return raterList.map((rater) => ratingsByRater.get(rater)!)\n  })\n  const agreement = continuousAgreement(matrix, { bootstrap: 0 })\n\n  const disagreementCases = jointlyRated\n    .map((runId) => {\n      const ratersForRun = byRun.get(runId)!\n      const scores = ratersForRun.map((r) => r.score)\n      const range = Math.max(...scores) - Math.min(...scores)\n      return { runId, ratings: ratersForRun, range }\n    })\n    .sort((a, b) => b.range - a.range)\n    .slice(0, 20)\n\n  return {\n    raters: raters.size,\n    jointlyRated: jointlyRated.length,\n    kappa: Number.isFinite(agreement.weightedKappa) ? agreement.weightedKappa : 0,\n    icc: agreement.icc,\n    pearson: agreement.pearson,\n    spearman: agreement.spearman,\n    perPair,\n    disagreementCases,\n  }\n}\n\n// ── Lift ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────\n\nfunction computeLift(\n  runs: RunRecord[],\n  baselineId: string | undefined,\n  candidateId: string | undefined,\n  split: 'search' | 'holdout',\n): LiftInsight | undefined {\n  let bId = baselineId\n  let cId = candidateId\n  if (!bId || !cId) {\n    // Auto-detect: when exactly two distinct candidateIds appear, treat the\n    // lower-mean side as baseline.\n    const ids = [...new Set(runs.map((r) => r.candidateId))]\n    if (ids.length !== 2) return undefined\n    const [idA, idB] = ids as [string, string]\n    const scoresA = finiteCompositeScores(\n      runs.filter((run) => run.candidateId === idA),\n      split,\n    )\n    const scoresB = finiteCompositeScores(\n      runs.filter((run) => run.candidateId === idB),\n      split,\n    )\n    if (scoresA.length === 0 || scoresB.length === 0) return undefined\n    const meanA = mean(scoresA)\n    const meanB = mean(scoresB)\n    bId = meanA <= meanB ? idA : idB\n    cId = meanA <= meanB ? idB : idA\n  }\n\n  const baseline = runs.filter((r) => r.candidateId === bId)\n  const candidate = runs.filter((r) => r.candidateId === cId)\n  if (baseline.length === 0 || candidate.length === 0) return undefined\n\n  const scoredBaseline = baseline.filter((run) => Number.isFinite(compositeOf(run, split)))\n  const scoredCandidate = candidate.filter((run) => Number.isFinite(compositeOf(run, split)))\n  const pairing = pairRunRecords(scoredBaseline, scoredCandidate)\n  const pairedBaseline = pairing.pairs.map((pair) => compositeOf(pair.baseline, split))\n  const pairedCandidate = pairing.pairs.map((pair) => compositeOf(pair.treatment, split))\n  if (pairedBaseline.length === 0) return undefined\n\n  const baselineMean = mean(pairedBaseline)\n  const candidateMean = mean(pairedCandidate)\n  const delta = candidateMean - baselineMean\n\n  const bootstrap = pairedBootstrap(pairedBaseline, pairedCandidate, {\n    confidence: 0.95,\n    resamples: 2000,\n    statistic: 'mean',\n  })\n  const tTest = pairedTTest(pairedBaseline, pairedCandidate)\n  const d = pairedCohensDz(pairedBaseline, pairedCandidate)\n  const mde = pairedMde({ nPaired: pairedBaseline.length, power: 0.8, alpha: 0.05 })\n  const requiredN =\n    d === null || d === 0\n      ? null\n      : requiredPairedSampleSize({\n          effect: Math.abs(d),\n          power: 0.8,\n          alpha: 0.05,\n        })\n\n  return {\n    baselineMean,\n    candidateMean,\n    delta,\n    ci95: [bootstrap.low, bootstrap.high],\n    pValue: tTest.p,\n    n: pairedBaseline.length,\n    minimumRequired: BOOTSTRAP_GATE_MIN_N,\n    decisionEligible: bootstrap.gateEligible,\n    unpairedBaseline: pairing.unpairedBaseline.length,\n    unpairedCandidate: pairing.unpairedTreatment.length,\n    cohensD: d,\n    mde,\n    requiredN,\n  }\n}\n\nfunction mean(arr: number[]): number {\n  return arr.length === 0 ? 0 : arr.reduce((s, v) => s + v, 0) / arr.length\n}\n\n// ── Failure clustering ──────────────────────────────────────────────\n\nasync function computeFailureClusters(\n  runs: RunRecord[],\n  analyst: AnalystRegistry,\n  split: 'search' | 'holdout',\n): Promise<FailureClusterInsight | undefined> {\n  const failed = runs.filter((run) => isTaskFailure(run, split))\n  if (failed.length === 0) return { clusters: [], totalFailures: 0 }\n\n  const clusters = new Map<string, { exemplars: string[]; share: number }>()\n  for (const run of failed) {\n    try {\n      // AnalystRunInputs routes by field name: run-record analysts read\n      // `runRecord`. Any other shape makes every analyst skip with\n      // \"missing input\" and the clusters come back silently empty.\n      const result = await analyst.run(run.runId, { runRecord: run })\n      for (const finding of result.findings as AnalystFinding[]) {\n        const key = finding.area || finding.analyst_id || 'unclassified'\n        const c = clusters.get(key) ?? { exemplars: [], share: 0 }\n        if (c.exemplars.length < 5) c.exemplars.push(run.runId)\n        clusters.set(key, c)\n      }\n    } catch {\n      const c = clusters.get('analyst-error') ?? { exemplars: [], share: 0 }\n      if (c.exemplars.length < 5) c.exemplars.push(run.runId)\n      clusters.set('analyst-error', c)\n    }\n  }\n  const clusterList = [...clusters.entries()].map(([id, c]) => ({\n    id,\n    name: id,\n    share: c.exemplars.length / failed.length,\n    exemplars: c.exemplars,\n  }))\n  clusterList.sort((a, b) => b.share - a.share)\n  return { clusters: clusterList, totalFailures: failed.length }\n}\n\nfunction finiteCompositeScores(runs: readonly RunRecord[], split: 'search' | 'holdout'): number[] {\n  return runs.map((run) => compositeOf(run, split)).filter(Number.isFinite)\n}\n\nfunction isTaskFailure(run: RunRecord, split: 'search' | 'holdout'): boolean {\n  if (run.failureClass !== undefined && run.failureClass !== 'success') return true\n  const score = compositeOf(run, split)\n  return Number.isFinite(score) && score < 0.5\n}\n\n// ── Contamination ──────────────────────────────────────────────────\n\nfunction computeContamination(\n  runs: RunRecord[],\n  canaries: DatasetScenario[],\n): InsightReport['contamination'] {\n  let leaks = 0\n  const details: Array<{ runId: string; canary: string; matched: string }> = []\n  for (const run of runs) {\n    const output = stringifyOutput(run)\n    if (!output) continue\n    const leaksHere = checkCanaries(output, canaries)\n    for (const leak of leaksHere) {\n      leaks++\n      details.push({ runId: run.runId, canary: leak.canary, matched: leak.evidence })\n    }\n  }\n  return { leaks, holdoutAuditPassed: leaks === 0, details }\n}\n\nfunction stringifyOutput(run: RunRecord): string | undefined {\n  // RunRecord doesn't fix where \"the agent's output\" lives — different\n  // consumers stash it differently. We probe the common shapes: the\n  // outcome.raw map (numeric only by design — unlikely to contain text),\n  // and any string-valued fields tucked under metadata via type casting.\n  // Consumers with bespoke shapes pass canaryScenarios only when they\n  // know their runs carry a stringifiable surface.\n  const metadata = (run as unknown as { metadata?: Record<string, unknown> }).metadata\n  if (typeof metadata?.output === 'string') return metadata.output\n  if (typeof metadata?.text === 'string') return metadata.text\n  return undefined\n}\n\n// ── Outcome correlation + linear reward model ──────────────────────\n\nfunction computeOutcomeCorrelation(\n  runs: RunRecord[],\n  outcome: { metric: string; valueByRunId: Record<string, number> },\n  split: 'search' | 'holdout',\n): OutcomeCorrelationInsight | undefined {\n  const xs: number[] = []\n  const ys: number[] = []\n  for (const run of runs) {\n    const y = outcome.valueByRunId[run.runId]\n    if (y === undefined || !Number.isFinite(y)) continue\n    const x = compositeOf(run, split)\n    if (!Number.isFinite(x)) continue\n    xs.push(x)\n    ys.push(y)\n  }\n  if (xs.length < 3) return undefined\n\n  const p = pearsonR(xs, ys)\n  const s = spearmanR(xs, ys)\n  const meanX = mean(xs)\n  const meanY = mean(ys)\n  let num = 0\n  let denom = 0\n  for (let i = 0; i < xs.length; i++) {\n    num += (xs[i]! - meanX) * (ys[i]! - meanY)\n    denom += (xs[i]! - meanX) ** 2\n  }\n  const slope = denom === 0 ? 0 : num / denom\n  const intercept = meanY - slope * meanX\n  const ssTot = ys.reduce((a, y) => a + (y - meanY) ** 2, 0)\n  const ssRes = ys.reduce((a, y, i) => a + (y - (intercept + slope * xs[i]!)) ** 2, 0)\n  const r2 = ssTot === 0 ? 0 : 1 - ssRes / ssTot\n\n  return {\n    metric: outcome.metric,\n    n: xs.length,\n    pearson: p,\n    spearman: s,\n    rewardModel: { intercept, slope, r2 },\n  }\n}\n\n// ── Release confidence scorecard ───────────────────────────────────\n\nfunction buildReleaseScorecard(\n  composite: ScalarDistribution,\n  lift: LiftInsight | undefined,\n  contamination: InsightReport['contamination'],\n): InsightReport['release'] {\n  // Synthesise a minimal scorecard from the rolled-up signal. The\n  // substrate's `evaluateReleaseConfidence` primitive consumes a richer\n  // input shape that callers can produce by wiring SLO definitions; the\n  // shape here is the contract `selfImprove`/`analyzeRuns` consumers\n  // receive automatically. They can call `evaluateReleaseConfidence`\n  // directly when they want SLO-based axis evaluation.\n  const axes: InsightReport['release']['axes'] = []\n  const liftPass =\n    lift === undefined\n      ? ('not_evaluated' as const)\n      : !lift.decisionEligible\n        ? ('not_evaluated' as const)\n        : lift.ci95[0] > 0 && !zeroWidth(lift.ci95)\n          ? ('pass' as const)\n          : lift.delta > 0\n            ? ('warn' as const)\n            : ('fail' as const)\n  axes.push({\n    name: 'quality-lift',\n    status: liftPass,\n    detail: lift\n      ? `delta=${lift.delta.toFixed(3)}, CI95=[${lift.ci95[0].toFixed(3)}, ${lift.ci95[1].toFixed(3)}], n=${lift.n}${lift.decisionEligible ? '' : ` (descriptive only; ${lift.minimumRequired} required)`}`\n      : 'no baseline/candidate pair available',\n  })\n  const contamPass =\n    contamination === undefined\n      ? ('not_evaluated' as const)\n      : contamination.leaks === 0\n        ? ('pass' as const)\n        : ('fail' as const)\n  axes.push({\n    name: 'contamination',\n    status: contamPass,\n    detail: contamination ? `${contamination.leaks} canary leak(s)` : 'no canaries supplied',\n  })\n  axes.push(\n    composite.n === 0\n      ? {\n          name: 'composite-distribution',\n          status: 'not_evaluated',\n          detail: 'no task-quality scores available',\n        }\n      : {\n          name: 'composite-distribution',\n          status:\n            composite.mean !== null && composite.mean >= 0.5\n              ? 'pass'\n              : composite.mean !== null && composite.mean >= 0.3\n                ? 'warn'\n                : 'fail',\n          detail:\n            composite.mean === null || composite.p50 === null || composite.p95 === null\n              ? 'task-quality distribution is internally incomplete'\n              : `mean=${composite.mean.toFixed(3)}, p50=${composite.p50.toFixed(3)}, p95=${composite.p95.toFixed(3)} over n=${composite.n}`,\n        },\n  )\n  const status = axes.some((a) => a.status === 'fail')\n    ? 'fail'\n    : axes.some((a) => a.status === 'warn' || a.status === 'not_evaluated')\n      ? 'warn'\n      : 'pass'\n  return {\n    status,\n    axes,\n    issues: [],\n  }\n}\n\n// ── Recommendations engine ─────────────────────────────────────────\n\ninterface RecommendationContext {\n  composite: ScalarDistribution\n  judges: Record<string, JudgeInsight>\n  interRater?: InterRaterInsight\n  lift?: LiftInsight\n  failureClusters?: FailureClusterInsight\n  failureClasses?: FailureClassTally[]\n  contamination?: InsightReport['contamination']\n  outcomeCorrelation?: OutcomeCorrelationInsight\n  priorPeriodComparison?: PriorPeriodComparison\n  threshold: number\n}\n\nfunction buildRecommendations(ctx: RecommendationContext): Recommendation[] {\n  const out: Recommendation[] = []\n\n  // Prior-period regressions — highest customer-impact signal when present.\n  // \"Did my last change help?\" with a falsifiable answer.\n  if (ctx.priorPeriodComparison) {\n    const ppc = ctx.priorPeriodComparison\n    const label = ppc.windowLabel ?? 'baseline period'\n    for (const name of ppc.regressedMetrics) {\n      const d = ppc.metrics[name]\n      if (d?.status !== 'ok') continue\n      out.push({\n        priority: 'critical',\n        kind: 'investigate',\n        title: `${name} regressed from ${d.baseline.toFixed(3)} → ${d.current.toFixed(3)} vs ${label}`,\n        detail: `Welch CI95 = [${d.ci95[0].toFixed(3)}, ${d.ci95[1].toFixed(3)}], p=${d.pValue.toFixed(4)}, Cohen's d=${d.cohensD.toFixed(2)} (n_current=${d.currentN}, n_baseline=${d.baselineN}). The regression is statistically significant at p<0.05 with at-least-small effect size.`,\n        evidencePath: `priorPeriodComparison.metrics.${name}`,\n      })\n    }\n    for (const name of ppc.improvedMetrics) {\n      const d = ppc.metrics[name]\n      if (d?.status !== 'ok') continue\n      out.push({\n        priority: 'low',\n        kind: 'ship',\n        title: `${name} improved from ${d.baseline.toFixed(3)} → ${d.current.toFixed(3)} vs ${label}`,\n        detail: `Welch CI95 = [${d.ci95[0].toFixed(3)}, ${d.ci95[1].toFixed(3)}], p=${d.pValue.toFixed(4)}, Cohen's d=${d.cohensD.toFixed(2)} (n_current=${d.currentN}, n_baseline=${d.baselineN}). Statistically significant improvement worth flagging.`,\n        evidencePath: `priorPeriodComparison.metrics.${name}`,\n      })\n    }\n    for (const name of ppc.inconclusiveMetrics) {\n      const d = ppc.metrics[name]\n      if (!d || d.status === 'ok' || d.delta === 0) continue\n      const reason =\n        d.status === 'zero-variance'\n          ? 'both periods have zero observed variance'\n          : 'one or both periods have fewer than two observations'\n      out.push({\n        priority: 'high',\n        kind: 'investigate',\n        title: `${name} changed from ${d.baseline.toFixed(3)} → ${d.current.toFixed(3)} vs ${label}; inference unavailable`,\n        detail: `Observed delta ${d.delta.toFixed(3)} across n_current=${d.currentN} and n_baseline=${d.baselineN}, but ${reason}. The report does not fabricate a p-value, confidence interval, or effect size; inspect independence and data capture before acting.`,\n        evidencePath: `priorPeriodComparison.metrics.${name}`,\n      })\n    }\n  }\n\n  // Composite-distribution branch. Fires when the overall quality signal is\n  // poor regardless of lift / contamination / clusters — the customer needs\n  // to know they have a problem AND which specific runs to inspect.\n  if (\n    ctx.composite.n > 0 &&\n    ctx.composite.mean !== null &&\n    ctx.composite.p50 !== null &&\n    ctx.composite.p95 !== null\n  ) {\n    if (ctx.composite.mean < 0.3) {\n      const tail = ctx.composite.tailRuns ?? []\n      const names = tail\n        .slice(0, 5)\n        .map((t) => `${t.runId}=${t.score.toFixed(3)}`)\n        .join(', ')\n      out.push({\n        priority: 'critical',\n        kind: 'investigate',\n        title: `Composite mean ${ctx.composite.mean.toFixed(3)} is below the 0.3 floor — the agent is broken on this corpus`,\n        detail:\n          tail.length > 0\n            ? `Worst ${tail.length} run${tail.length === 1 ? '' : 's'} to inspect first: ${names}. Histogram p50=${ctx.composite.p50.toFixed(3)}, p95=${ctx.composite.p95.toFixed(3)}.`\n            : `Histogram p50=${ctx.composite.p50.toFixed(3)}, p95=${ctx.composite.p95.toFixed(3)}.`,\n        evidencePath: 'composite.tailRuns',\n      })\n    } else if (ctx.composite.mean < 0.5) {\n      const tail = ctx.composite.tailRuns ?? []\n      const names = tail\n        .slice(0, 3)\n        .map((t) => `${t.runId}=${t.score.toFixed(3)}`)\n        .join(', ')\n      out.push({\n        priority: 'high',\n        kind: 'investigate',\n        title: `Composite mean ${ctx.composite.mean.toFixed(3)} is below 0.5 — investigate the lower tail before claiming the agent is healthy`,\n        detail:\n          tail.length > 0\n            ? `Worst ${tail.length} run${tail.length === 1 ? '' : 's'}: ${names}. Histogram p50=${ctx.composite.p50.toFixed(3)}, p95=${ctx.composite.p95.toFixed(3)}.`\n            : `Histogram p50=${ctx.composite.p50.toFixed(3)}, p95=${ctx.composite.p95.toFixed(3)}.`,\n        evidencePath: 'composite.tailRuns',\n      })\n    }\n  }\n\n  // A healthy-looking mean can hide a group of failed tasks sharing one\n  // producer-reported cause. This path does not require an analyst.\n  if (ctx.failureClasses && ctx.failureClasses.length > 0) {\n    const top = ctx.failureClasses[0]!\n    if (top.count >= 3 && top.share >= 0.15) {\n      out.push({\n        priority: top.share >= 0.25 ? 'high' : 'medium',\n        kind: 'investigate',\n        title: `'${top.failureClass}' is the dominant failure class — ${top.count} runs (${(top.share * 100).toFixed(0)}% of the corpus)`,\n        detail: `The mean composite can look acceptable while one failure class dominates the lower tail. ${top.count} of ${ctx.composite.n} runs failed with '${top.failureClass}'${ctx.failureClasses.length > 1 ? ` (next: '${ctx.failureClasses[1]!.failureClass}' ×${ctx.failureClasses[1]!.count})` : ''}. Fix this cause first.`,\n        evidencePath: 'failureClasses',\n      })\n    }\n  }\n\n  // Missing-judges branch. The report can't surface per-dimension or\n  // calibration signal when `outcome.judgeScores` is empty across the\n  // corpus. Tell the customer how to enrich.\n  if (Object.keys(ctx.judges).length === 0 && ctx.composite.n > 0) {\n    out.push({\n      priority: 'medium',\n      kind: 'expand-corpus',\n      title: 'No judge scores recorded — per-dimension + calibration insights unavailable',\n      detail:\n        'Records have no `outcome.judgeScores`. To unlock perDimension, judges, and calibration, attach a Judge run during your eval pass and populate `outcome.judgeScores.perJudge[judgeName][dimension] = score`. See `docs/insight-report.md` for the expected shape.',\n      evidencePath: 'judges',\n    })\n  }\n\n  if (ctx.lift) {\n    if (!ctx.lift.decisionEligible) {\n      out.push({\n        priority: 'high',\n        kind: 'expand-corpus',\n        title: `Inconclusive — ${ctx.lift.n} paired runs; ${ctx.lift.minimumRequired} required`,\n        detail: `The bootstrap interval is descriptive below ${ctx.lift.minimumRequired} paired observations and cannot support a ship decision.`,\n        evidencePath: 'lift',\n      })\n    } else {\n      const pairedEffect =\n        ctx.lift.cohensD === null ? 'undefined (zero delta variance)' : ctx.lift.cohensD.toFixed(2)\n      const pairedP =\n        ctx.lift.pValue === null ? 'undefined (zero delta variance)' : ctx.lift.pValue.toFixed(4)\n      const requiredRuns =\n        ctx.lift.requiredN === null ? 'not estimable' : `~${ctx.lift.requiredN} paired runs`\n      // A ZERO-WIDTH interval never reads as \"ship\": n identical paired deltas\n      // make every resample identical, so `[g, g]` clears any threshold below g\n      // and `[0, 0]` clears any negative `decisionThreshold`, on no spread at\n      // all. It falls through to the inconclusive/hold arms, which is where a\n      // sample carrying no information about its own error belongs.\n      const decisive = !zeroWidth(ctx.lift.ci95) && ctx.lift.ci95[0] > ctx.threshold\n      const inconclusive = ctx.lift.ci95[0] <= ctx.threshold && ctx.lift.ci95[1] > ctx.threshold\n      if (decisive) {\n        out.push({\n          priority: 'critical',\n          kind: 'ship',\n          title: `Ship — lift ${ctx.lift.delta.toFixed(3)} (95% CI ${ctx.lift.ci95[0].toFixed(3)}..${ctx.lift.ci95[1].toFixed(3)})`,\n          detail: `Holdout lift exceeds threshold ${ctx.threshold} with 95% bootstrap confidence (n=${ctx.lift.n}, p=${pairedP}, paired d=${pairedEffect}).`,\n          evidencePath: 'lift',\n        })\n      } else if (inconclusive) {\n        out.push({\n          priority: 'high',\n          kind: 'expand-corpus',\n          title: `Inconclusive — required sample is ${requiredRuns} (have ${ctx.lift.n}) at current effect size`,\n          detail: `CI straddles threshold. Current MDE at 80% power is ${ctx.lift.mde.toFixed(3)}; observed delta is ${ctx.lift.delta.toFixed(3)}.`,\n          evidencePath: 'lift',\n        })\n      } else {\n        out.push({\n          priority: 'critical',\n          kind: 'hold',\n          title: `Hold — lift CI lower bound ${ctx.lift.ci95[0].toFixed(3)} is at or below threshold ${ctx.threshold}`,\n          detail: `Bootstrap CI provides no statistical evidence the candidate is better. Consider tightening the mutation or expanding the holdout.`,\n          evidencePath: 'lift',\n        })\n      }\n    }\n  }\n\n  if (ctx.contamination && ctx.contamination.leaks > 0) {\n    out.push({\n      priority: 'critical',\n      kind: 'fix',\n      title: `${ctx.contamination.leaks} canary leak${ctx.contamination.leaks === 1 ? '' : 's'} detected`,\n      detail: `Holdout integrity is compromised. The lift number is unreliable until you investigate.`,\n      evidencePath: 'contamination',\n    })\n  }\n\n  if (ctx.interRater && ctx.interRater.kappa < 0.5) {\n    out.push({\n      priority: 'high',\n      kind: 'recalibrate',\n      title: `Inter-rater weighted kappa ${ctx.interRater.kappa.toFixed(2)} is below 0.5`,\n      detail:\n        'Raters disagree on what good looks like. Review the largest disagreement cases and refine the rubric before automating these decisions.',\n      evidencePath: 'interRater',\n    })\n  }\n\n  if (ctx.failureClusters && ctx.failureClusters.clusters.length > 0) {\n    const top = ctx.failureClusters.clusters[0]!\n    out.push({\n      priority: 'high',\n      kind: 'investigate',\n      title: `Top failure cluster: ${top.name} (${(top.share * 100).toFixed(0)}% of failures)`,\n      detail: `${ctx.failureClusters.totalFailures} runs failed. The largest cluster groups ${top.exemplars.length} exemplars under '${top.name}'.`,\n      evidencePath: 'failureClusters.clusters[0]',\n    })\n  }\n\n  if (ctx.outcomeCorrelation && Math.abs(ctx.outcomeCorrelation.spearman) < 0.3) {\n    out.push({\n      priority: 'medium',\n      kind: 'recalibrate',\n      title: `Judge scores decoupled from ${ctx.outcomeCorrelation.metric} (Spearman ρ=${ctx.outcomeCorrelation.spearman.toFixed(2)})`,\n      detail: `Your judges score what they were trained to score, but it isn't predicting downstream ${ctx.outcomeCorrelation.metric}. Consider retraining the judge against ${ctx.outcomeCorrelation.metric} as the gold signal.`,\n      evidencePath: 'outcomeCorrelation',\n    })\n  }\n\n  return out\n}\n\n// ── Re-export pareto figure spec for hosted-side rendering ─────────\n\nexport type { ParetoFigureSpec }\n","/**\n * Run one complete improvement job.\n *\n * A caller-owned `proposer` can generate candidates across local generations.\n * An external `method`, such as official GEPA or SkillOpt, owns its complete\n * search and returns one candidate. Both paths remeasure the selected candidate\n * against cases that candidate generation never receives.\n */\n\nimport type { ProposalFinding } from '../analyst/types'\nimport { defaultProductionGate } from '../campaign/gates/default-production-gate'\nimport { type PowerPreflight, powerPreflight } from '../campaign/gates/power-preflight'\nimport {\n  assertOptimizationResult,\n  type OptimizationMethod,\n  type OptimizationMethodProvenance,\n  type OptimizationMethodResult,\n} from '../campaign/presets/compare-optimization-methods'\nimport {\n  type RunImprovementLoopResult,\n  runImprovementLoop,\n} from '../campaign/presets/run-improvement-loop'\nimport type {\n  PremeasuredOptimizationBaseline,\n  RunOptimizationOptions,\n} from '../campaign/presets/run-optimization'\nimport {\n  emitLoopProvenance,\n  type LoopProvenanceRecord,\n  loopProvenanceArgsFromResult,\n} from '../campaign/provenance'\nimport { resolveRunDir } from '../campaign/run-dir'\nimport {\n  campaignCellExecutionEvidence,\n  campaignCellJudgeDimensions,\n  campaignCellTaskScore,\n  campaignCellToRunRecord,\n} from '../campaign/run-record'\nimport {\n  type CampaignStorage,\n  createRunCostLedger,\n  fsCampaignStorage,\n  inMemoryCampaignStorage,\n} from '../campaign/storage'\nimport { surfaceContentHash, surfaceHash } from '../campaign/surface-identity'\nimport type {\n  CampaignCellResult,\n  DispatchContext,\n  Gate,\n  JudgeConfig,\n  LabeledScenarioStore,\n  MutableSurface,\n  Scenario,\n  SurfaceProposer,\n} from '../campaign/types'\nimport type { CostLedgerHandle, CostLedgerSummary, CostReceipt } from '../cost-ledger'\nimport { ValidationError } from '../errors'\nimport { createHostedClient, type HostedTenant } from '../hosted/client'\nimport type { EvalRunCellScore, EvalRunEvent, EvalRunGenerationSnapshot } from '../hosted/types'\nimport { modelHasSnapshot, type RunRecord, type RunSplitTag } from '../run-record'\nimport { analyzeRuns } from './analyze-runs'\nimport type { InsightReport } from './insight-report'\n\nexport interface SelfImproveBudget {\n  /** Hard spend cap across the full run. Each paid call reserves its enforced\n   *  maximum before dispatch, so completed spend cannot cross this amount. */\n  dollars?: number\n  /** Proposer generations. Default: 3. External methods own their rounds and\n   *  require this value to be omitted or set to 1. Set 0 only for a\n   *  proposer-free baseline run. */\n  generations?: number\n  /** Candidates the proposer emits per generation. Default 2. */\n  populationSize?: number\n  /** Max concurrent cells across the loop. Default 2. */\n  maxConcurrency?: number\n  /** Candidate campaigns scored in parallel. Default 1. Total concurrent\n   *  cells are bounded by `candidateConcurrency * maxConcurrency`. */\n  candidateConcurrency?: number\n  /** Fraction of `scenarios` held out from training, used for the gate.\n   *  Default 0.25. Ignored when `holdoutScenarios` is set explicitly. */\n  holdoutFraction?: number\n  /** Fraction of the non-final cases reserved for method selection.\n   *  Default 0.25. Used only with `method` and ignored when\n   *  `selectionScenarios` is supplied explicitly. */\n  selectionFraction?: number\n  /** Explicit held-out scenarios; overrides `holdoutFraction`. */\n  holdoutScenarios?: Scenario[]\n  /** Holdout policy. Default `'measured'`: split, re-score baseline vs winner\n   *  on the held-out set, gate on that comparison. `'deferred'`: run the\n   *  improvement-set campaigns + search promotion, dispatch ZERO holdout cells,\n   *  force the gate to `'hold'`, return `lift: undefined`, and record\n   *  `holdout: 'deferred'` in the provenance record — for callers that measure\n   *  the held-out comparison in a separate later run instead of faking a\n   *  static holdout scenario and recording a meaningless lift. Unless\n   *  `holdoutScenarios` reserves an explicit set, ALL scenarios train. */\n  holdout?: 'measured' | 'deferred'\n  /** Per-scenario replicates per cell — raises bootstrap-CI tightness. Default 1. */\n  reps?: number\n  /** DEPTH dial forwarded to the proposer's `propose()` as\n   *  `ctx.maxImprovementShots` — max iterations an agentic candidate generator\n   *  may take per candidate (verify-in-session retries). Unset ⇒ the\n   *  proposer's own default. */\n  maxImprovementShots?: number\n}\n\nexport type SelfImproveProgressEvent =\n  | { kind: 'baseline.started'; scenarios: number }\n  | { kind: 'baseline.completed'; compositeMean: number; durationMs: number }\n  | { kind: 'generation.started'; index: number; populationSize: number }\n  | { kind: 'generation.completed'; index: number; bestComposite: number; durationMs: number }\n  // `lift` is absent when `budget.holdout === 'deferred'` — no held-out\n  // measurement ran, and the search-split delta must not masquerade as one.\n  | { kind: 'gate.decided'; decision: string; lift?: number }\n  | { kind: 'power.estimated'; n: number; sd: number; mde: number; underpowered: boolean }\n\nexport interface SelfImproveOptions<TScenario extends Scenario, TArtifact> {\n  /**\n   * Your agent — a function that takes the current `MutableSurface`\n   * (typically a system prompt the loop is optimizing) plus the\n   * scenario + cell ctx, and returns the artifact your judge scores.\n   *\n   * Same shape as `RunOptimizationOptions.dispatchWithSurface`. Wrap a\n   * plain `Dispatch` if you don't have a surface seam:\n   *\n   *   agent: (_surface, scenario, ctx) => yourPlainDispatch(scenario, ctx)\n   *\n   * That mode evaluates without mutating any surface — useful as a\n   * baseline-only run (set `budget.generations = 0`).\n   */\n  agent: (surface: MutableSurface, scenario: TScenario, ctx: DispatchContext) => Promise<TArtifact>\n\n  /**\n   * Snapshot-bearing model identity for agents that do not report a paid-call\n   * receipt through `ctx.cost.runPaidCall()`.\n   *\n   * Omit this when every cell reports its concrete model in a receipt.\n   */\n  model?: string\n\n  /** Scenarios to evaluate against. Train/holdout split is computed from\n   *  these unless `budget.holdoutScenarios` is set explicitly. */\n  scenarios: TScenario[]\n\n  /** Judge that scores artifacts. Bring your own; use `langchainJudge`\n   *  from `/adapters/langchain` for a Runnable-shaped one. */\n  judge: JudgeConfig<TArtifact, TScenario>\n\n  /** Starting surface — system prompt, JSON config, anything `MutableSurface`\n   *  accepts. The proposer mutates this each generation. */\n  baselineSurface: MutableSurface\n\n  /** Budget + loop shape. All fields optional. */\n  budget?: SelfImproveBudget\n\n  /**\n   * Complete prior measurement of `baselineSurface` over the TRAIN split.\n   * Forwarded to the loop body, which validates its surface hash, scenario\n   * split, seed (42), reps, and coverage, then skips the baseline search\n   * campaign entirely — no baseline dispatch, no resumability lookup. The\n   * train split is `scenarios` minus the holdout split, so premeasure with\n   * exactly that scenario set (explicit `budget.holdoutScenarios`, or\n   * `budget.holdout: 'deferred'` with no reserved set, makes the train split\n   * deterministic). Prior spend stays in the imported campaign aggregates and\n   * is not re-added to this run's cost ledger.\n   */\n  premeasuredBaseline?: PremeasuredOptimizationBaseline<TArtifact, TScenario>\n\n  /**\n   * Candidate generator for this local generation loop.\n   * Required when `budget.generations` is greater than zero.\n   */\n  proposer?: SurfaceProposer<ProposalFinding>\n\n  /**\n   * Complete optimization method, such as official GEPA or SkillOpt.\n   * The method receives disjoint train and selection cases and never receives\n   * the final comparison cases. Mutually exclusive with `proposer`.\n   */\n  method?: OptimizationMethod<TScenario, TArtifact>\n\n  /** Explicit method-selection cases. They must also appear in `scenarios`\n   *  and must not overlap the final comparison cases. */\n  selectionScenarios?: TScenario[]\n\n  /** Custom gate. Default is `defaultProductionGate` with\n   *  `deltaThreshold: 0.05` on the held-out split. */\n  gate?: Gate<TArtifact, TScenario>\n\n  /** Placebo control. When supplied AND the winner differs from baseline, the\n   *  loop scores a THIRD held-out arm: the winner surface with its content\n   *  footprint-matched-blanked by this fn (typically via `neutralizeText`). Its\n   *  scores reach the gate as `ctx.neutralizedJudgeScores`, letting a\n   *  `neutralizationGate` reject a win whose lift survives blanking the content\n   *  (decorative — driven by footprint, not content). Costs one extra held-out\n   *  campaign; omit to skip. Compose `neutralizationGate` into `gate` to act on it. */\n  neutralize?: (winnerSurface: MutableSurface, baselineSurface: MutableSurface) => MutableSurface\n\n  /** Storage backend. A filesystem run directory uses `fsCampaignStorage()`;\n   *  a `mem://` directory uses in-memory storage. External methods default to\n   *  a filesystem directory because their official state must survive. */\n  storage?: CampaignStorage\n\n  /** Run directory. Proposer mode defaults to\n   *  `mem://selfImprove-<timestamp>`. External method mode defaults to\n   *  `.agent-eval/runs/self-improve-<timestamp>`. */\n  runDir?: string\n\n  /** Fires once the durable provenance record + OTel spans are emitted.\n   *  Receives the structured record for inline assertions / custom routing. */\n  onProvenance?: (record: LoopProvenanceRecord) => void\n\n  /** Distributed execution seam — same as `RunCampaignOptions.cellPlacement`.\n   *  Returns an opaque placement key the substrate forwards to your agent\n   *  as `ctx.placement`. Combined with `httpDispatch` from\n   *  `/adapters/http`, fans cells across regions. */\n  cellPlacement?: (input: {\n    scenario: TScenario\n    rep: number\n    generation?: number\n  }) => string | undefined\n\n  /** Per-cell agent dispatch deadline, applied to baseline, candidate, and\n   *  held-out campaigns. Default 600_000 ms. Set 0 to disable. */\n  dispatchTimeoutMs?: number\n\n  /** Streaming hook — fires on baseline + each generation + gate decision.\n   *  Consumer routes events wherever (UI, dashboard, logs). */\n  onProgress?: (event: SelfImproveProgressEvent) => void\n\n  /** Auto-promotion behavior on a ship decision. Default `'none'` — we\n   *  return the winner; you ship it however you ship. `'pr'` opens a\n   *  GitHub PR via `openAutoPr`; requires `ghOwner` + `ghRepo`. */\n  autoOnPromote?: 'pr' | 'none'\n  ghOwner?: string\n  ghRepo?: string\n\n  /**\n   * Opt-in: ship eval-run events to a hosted orchestrator (ours, your\n   * self-hosted one, or any compatible implementation of the\n   * `docs/hosted-ingest-spec.md` wire format). When set, the substrate\n   * POSTs the final `EvalRunEvent` to `${endpoint}/v1/ingest/eval-runs`\n   * after the loop completes. Failures are logged but do not fail the\n   * loop — local result is always returned.\n   *\n   * For our orchestrator: `{ endpoint: 'https://orchestrator.tangle.tools/v1', apiKey, tenantId }`.\n   *\n   * For your self-hosted: any URL serving the wire format. See\n   * `examples/hosted-ingest-server/` for the reference receiver.\n   */\n  hostedTenant?: HostedTenant\n\n  /** Free-form labels attached to the hosted event (env, branch, model id,\n   *  etc.). Ignored when `hostedTenant` is unset. */\n  hostedLabels?: Record<string, string>\n\n  /** Capture every search artifact and judge score to this store.\n   *  The store is output only and is never exposed to candidate generation.\n   *  Pass `'off'` to disable. Default: off. */\n  labeledStore?: LabeledScenarioStore | 'off'\n\n  /** Capture-source tag for `labeledStore`. Default `'eval-run'`. */\n  captureSource?: 'production-trace' | 'eval-run' | 'manual' | 'red-team' | 'synthetic'\n\n  /**\n   * Per-cell backend-integrity expectation — the fail-loud guard. A cell that\n   * produced an artifact but reported `costUsd === 0` AND zero tokens is a\n   * stub. Modes: `'assert'` throws on the first such cell, `'warn'` logs it,\n   * `'off'` skips the check (offline/replay). Default `'assert'` — `selfImprove`\n   * is the real-run path, so a stub fails loud rather than scoring a clean 0.\n   */\n  expectUsage?: 'assert' | 'warn' | 'off'\n\n  /**\n   * Per-generation findings producer. Runs once on the baseline campaign (as\n   * `generation: -1`) before generation 0 proposes — so single-generation runs\n   * propose with trace context — and again after each generation is scored;\n   * whatever it returns REPLACES the proposer's `findings` for the next\n   * `propose()`. Plug a trace-analyst registry / HALO here. When absent,\n   * findings stay `opts.findings`.\n   */\n  analyzeGeneration?: RunOptimizationOptions<TScenario, TArtifact>['analyzeGeneration']\n\n  /** Static findings forwarded to the proposer's `propose()` as `ctx.findings`\n   *  (a findings-grounded proposer consumes them). Default: none. */\n  findings?: ProposalFinding[]\n\n  /** Override how the WINNER is selected among coverage-complete candidates.\n   *  Defaults to the scalar mean composite (historical behavior). A binary-with-\n   *  replicates consumer whose ship-gate counts an instance resolved only when\n   *  every replicate resolved passes a fail-closed lexicographic key here so that\n   *  winner-selection and the ship-gate rank on the identical metric and cannot\n   *  invert. See `RunOptimizationOptions.selectionRankKey`. */\n  selectionRankKey?: RunOptimizationOptions<TScenario, TArtifact>['selectionRankKey']\n}\n\nexport interface SelfImproveResult<TScenario extends Scenario, TArtifact> {\n  /** Composite mean across all scenarios, baseline run. When\n   *  `budget.holdout === 'deferred'` this is measured on the improvement\n   *  (search) split — no holdout campaign ran. */\n  baseline: {\n    compositeMean: number\n    perScenario: Record<string, number>\n  }\n  /** Composite mean on the held-out set, winner run. When\n   *  `budget.holdout === 'deferred'` this is the winner's improvement-set\n   *  (search) measurement — no holdout campaign ran. */\n  winner: {\n    compositeMean: number\n    perScenario: Record<string, number>\n    surface: MutableSurface\n    /** Proposer label for the promoted change. Absent ⇒ winner == baseline or\n     *  a bare-surface mutator. */\n    label?: string\n    /** Proposer rationale — the \"because Z\" that motivated the promoted change.\n     *  Threaded from the proposer's `ProposedCandidate` through the loop.\n     *  Absent ⇒ winner == baseline. */\n    rationale?: string\n  }\n  /** `winner.compositeMean - baselineOnHoldout.compositeMean`. Positive\n   *  means the gate observed improvement. Absent iff\n   *  `budget.holdout === 'deferred'` — no held-out measurement ran, so there\n   *  is no lift to report (never a fabricated 0). */\n  lift?: number\n  /** The explicit baseline→winner unified diff. Always present (empty string\n   *  when winner == baseline). */\n  diff: string\n  /** Durable, queryable provenance record: candidate→cell→gate→promote chain +\n   *  rationale + diff + backend provenance. The artifact the hosted ingest\n   *  path stores; the +lift RECOMPUTES from `record.heldOutLift`. */\n  provenance: LoopProvenanceRecord\n  /** `defaultProductionGate.decide()` result. */\n  gateDecision: 'ship' | 'hold' | 'need_more_work' | 'model_ceiling' | 'arch_ceiling'\n  /** Number of generations actually explored (may be less than the\n   *  budget if the proposer gave up early). */\n  generationsExplored: number\n  /** Wall-clock total. */\n  durationMs: number\n  /** Total newly observed cost across the full run. */\n  totalCostUsd: number\n  /** Canonical run-wide spend summary. */\n  cost: CostLedgerSummary\n  /** Run-wide receipts across proposal, search, holdout, judging, analysis,\n   *  and promotion work, with phase and actor attribution. */\n  receipts: CostReceipt[]\n  /** Exact external method and source identity, when `method` was used. */\n  optimization?: {\n    name: string\n    cost: OptimizationMethodResult['cost']\n    durationMs?: number\n    provenance?: OptimizationMethodProvenance\n  }\n  /**\n   * Rigor packet: distributional summary, paired-bootstrap lift CI,\n   * judge stats, contamination check, recommendations. Wired through\n   * `analyzeRuns()` on the baseline + winner cells of the campaign.\n   * Hosted-tier dashboards render this as the v3-vs-v4 decision view.\n   */\n  insight: InsightReport\n  /** Minimum-detectable-lift analysis from the baseline holdout cells: could this\n   *  budget have shipped ANY plausible effect? Absent when the baseline produced\n   *  fewer than 3 scored holdout cells. See `powerPreflight` for the standalone\n   *  pre-run version (run `gate: 'none'` first, budget the real search after). */\n  power?: PowerPreflight\n  /**\n   * Raw substrate result for advanced inspection — full per-generation\n   * candidates, full campaign artifacts, all judge scores. Useful for\n   * debugging or reporting beyond the summary.\n   */\n  raw: RunImprovementLoopResult<TArtifact, TScenario>\n}\n\n/** Failed self-improvement run with an immutable receipt snapshot. */\nexport class SelfImproveRunError extends Error {\n  readonly cost: CostLedgerSummary\n  readonly receipts: CostReceipt[]\n\n  constructor(cause: unknown, ledger: CostLedgerHandle) {\n    const original = cause instanceof Error ? cause : new Error(String(cause))\n    super(original.message, { cause: original })\n    this.name = 'SelfImproveRunError'\n    this.cost = ledger.summary()\n    this.receipts = ledger.list()\n  }\n}\n\nfunction assertSelfImproveSearchMode<TScenario extends Scenario, TArtifact>(\n  opts: SelfImproveOptions<TScenario, TArtifact>,\n): void {\n  if (opts.method && opts.proposer) {\n    throw new Error('selfImprove: method and proposer are mutually exclusive')\n  }\n  if (!opts.method) {\n    if (opts.selectionScenarios !== undefined) {\n      throw new Error('selfImprove: selectionScenarios requires method')\n    }\n    return\n  }\n  if (\n    typeof opts.method.name !== 'string' ||\n    !opts.method.name.trim() ||\n    opts.method.name.trim() !== opts.method.name ||\n    typeof opts.method.optimize !== 'function'\n  ) {\n    throw new Error('selfImprove: method must have a trimmed name and optimize(input)')\n  }\n  const budget = opts.budget\n  if (budget?.generations !== undefined && budget.generations !== 1) {\n    throw new Error('selfImprove: method owns its rounds; budget.generations must be 1 when set')\n  }\n  if (budget?.populationSize !== undefined && budget.populationSize !== 1) {\n    throw new Error(\n      'selfImprove: method owns its candidates; budget.populationSize must be 1 when set',\n    )\n  }\n  if (\n    budget?.candidateConcurrency !== undefined ||\n    budget?.maxImprovementShots !== undefined ||\n    opts.analyzeGeneration !== undefined ||\n    opts.findings !== undefined\n  ) {\n    throw new Error(\n      'selfImprove: candidateConcurrency, maxImprovementShots, analyzeGeneration, and findings apply only to proposer mode',\n    )\n  }\n}\n\nfunction splitMethodPartitions<TScenario extends Scenario>(\n  searchScenarios: TScenario[],\n  explicitSelection: TScenario[] | undefined,\n  fraction: number,\n): { train: TScenario[]; selection: TScenario[] } {\n  if (!Number.isFinite(fraction) || fraction <= 0 || fraction >= 1) {\n    throw new Error('selfImprove: budget.selectionFraction must be in (0, 1)')\n  }\n  const byId = new Map<string, TScenario>()\n  for (const scenario of searchScenarios) {\n    if (byId.has(scenario.id)) {\n      throw new Error(`selfImprove: duplicate scenario id '${scenario.id}'`)\n    }\n    byId.set(scenario.id, scenario)\n  }\n  if (explicitSelection) {\n    if (explicitSelection.length === 0) {\n      throw new Error('selfImprove: selectionScenarios must not be empty')\n    }\n    const selectionIds = new Set<string>()\n    for (const scenario of explicitSelection) {\n      if (!byId.has(scenario.id)) {\n        throw new Error(\n          `selfImprove: selection scenario '${scenario.id}' is absent from the non-final cases`,\n        )\n      }\n      if (selectionIds.has(scenario.id)) {\n        throw new Error(`selfImprove: duplicate selection scenario id '${scenario.id}'`)\n      }\n      selectionIds.add(scenario.id)\n    }\n    const train = searchScenarios.filter((scenario) => !selectionIds.has(scenario.id))\n    if (train.length === 0) {\n      throw new Error('selfImprove: method train split is empty')\n    }\n    return {\n      train,\n      selection: explicitSelection.map((scenario) => byId.get(scenario.id)!),\n    }\n  }\n  if (searchScenarios.length < 2) {\n    throw new Error('selfImprove: method requires at least two non-final scenarios')\n  }\n  const sorted = [...searchScenarios].sort(\n    (a, b) => stableScenarioHash(a.id) - stableScenarioHash(b.id),\n  )\n  const count = Math.max(1, Math.min(sorted.length - 1, Math.round(sorted.length * fraction)))\n  return {\n    selection: sorted.slice(0, count),\n    train: sorted.slice(count),\n  }\n}\n\nfunction safeRunComponent(value: string): string {\n  return value.replace(/[^a-zA-Z0-9._-]/g, '_')\n}\n\nfunction stableScenarioHash(value: string): number {\n  let hash = 2166136261 >>> 0\n  for (let index = 0; index < value.length; index++) {\n    hash ^= value.charCodeAt(index)\n    hash = Math.imul(hash, 16777619) >>> 0\n  }\n  return hash\n}\n\n/**\n * Deterministic train/holdout split by a stable hash of `scenario.id`,\n * so the same scenario set always splits the same way across runs.\n */\nfunction splitTrainHoldout<TScenario extends Scenario>(\n  scenarios: TScenario[],\n  fraction: number,\n): { train: TScenario[]; holdout: TScenario[] } {\n  const sorted = [...scenarios].sort((a, b) => stableScenarioHash(a.id) - stableScenarioHash(b.id))\n  const nHoldout = Math.max(1, Math.min(sorted.length - 1, Math.round(sorted.length * fraction)))\n  return {\n    holdout: sorted.slice(0, nHoldout),\n    train: sorted.slice(nHoldout),\n  }\n}\n\nfunction meanComposite(byScenario: Record<string, { meanComposite: number }>): {\n  compositeMean: number\n  perScenario: Record<string, number>\n} {\n  const perScenario: Record<string, number> = {}\n  const values: number[] = []\n  for (const [id, agg] of Object.entries(byScenario)) {\n    perScenario[id] = agg.meanComposite\n    values.push(agg.meanComposite)\n  }\n  return {\n    compositeMean: values.length === 0 ? 0 : values.reduce((s, v) => s + v, 0) / values.length,\n    perScenario,\n  }\n}\n\n/**\n * Latest search campaign measured for the winner surface; the baseline search\n * campaign when the winner IS the baseline. Used by the deferred-holdout\n * summary, where no holdout campaign exists to summarize.\n */\nfunction winnerSearchCampaign<TScenario extends Scenario, TArtifact>(\n  result: RunImprovementLoopResult<TArtifact, TScenario>,\n): RunImprovementLoopResult<TArtifact, TScenario>['baselineCampaign'] {\n  for (let i = result.generations.length - 1; i >= 0; i--) {\n    const measured = result.generations[i]?.surfaces.find(\n      (s) => s.surfaceHash === result.winnerSurfaceHash,\n    )\n    if (measured) return measured.campaign\n  }\n  return result.baselineCampaign\n}\n\n/**\n * One-shot self-improvement loop. See module docstring for defaults +\n * extension points.\n *\n * @example Minimum:\n *\n *   const result = await selfImprove({\n *     agent: (surface, scenario, ctx) => myAgent(surface, scenario, ctx.signal),\n *     scenarios,\n *     judge,\n *     baselineSurface: DEFAULT_PROMPT,\n *     proposer,\n *   })\n *   console.log(`lift: ${result.lift.toFixed(3)} (${result.gateDecision})`)\n *\n * @example Distributed (workers in three regions):\n *\n *   await selfImprove({\n *     agent: httpDispatch({ resolveUrl: ({ placement }) => REGION_URLS[placement!] }),\n *     scenarios,\n *     judge,\n *     baselineSurface: DEFAULT_PROMPT,\n *     cellPlacement: ({ scenario }) => scenario.region,\n *     budget: { maxConcurrency: 12 },\n *   })\n */\nexport async function selfImprove<TScenario extends Scenario, TArtifact>(\n  opts: SelfImproveOptions<TScenario, TArtifact>,\n): Promise<SelfImproveResult<TScenario, TArtifact>> {\n  const startedAt = Date.now()\n  const requestedRunDir =\n    opts.runDir ??\n    (opts.method ? `.agent-eval/runs/self-improve-${startedAt}` : `mem://selfImprove-${startedAt}`)\n  const runDir = resolveRunDir(requestedRunDir)\n  const storage =\n    opts.storage ?? (runDir.startsWith('mem://') ? inMemoryCampaignStorage() : fsCampaignStorage())\n  const costLedger = createRunCostLedger({\n    storage,\n    runDir,\n    costCeilingUsd: opts.budget?.dollars,\n  })\n  try {\n    return await runSelfImprove(opts, costLedger, startedAt, runDir, storage)\n  } catch (error) {\n    throw new SelfImproveRunError(error, costLedger)\n  }\n}\n\nasync function runSelfImprove<TScenario extends Scenario, TArtifact>(\n  opts: SelfImproveOptions<TScenario, TArtifact>,\n  costLedger: CostLedgerHandle,\n  startedAt: number,\n  runDir: string,\n  storage: CampaignStorage,\n): Promise<SelfImproveResult<TScenario, TArtifact>> {\n  const budget = opts.budget ?? {}\n  assertSelfImproveSearchMode(opts)\n  const generations = opts.method ? 1 : (budget.generations ?? 3)\n  const populationSize = opts.method ? 1 : (budget.populationSize ?? 2)\n  const maxConcurrency = budget.maxConcurrency ?? 2\n  const holdoutFraction = budget.holdoutFraction ?? 0.25\n  const holdoutMode = budget.holdout ?? 'measured'\n  const holdoutDeferred = holdoutMode === 'deferred'\n  const expectUsage = opts.expectUsage ?? 'assert'\n\n  // Deferred holdout without an explicitly reserved set trains on EVERYTHING:\n  // there is no held-out measurement in this run, so carving out a fraction\n  // would waste scenarios. An explicit `holdoutScenarios` set stays reserved\n  // (excluded from training) even when deferred, for the later measured run.\n  const explicitHoldout = budget.holdoutScenarios\n  const { train, holdout } = explicitHoldout\n    ? {\n        train: opts.scenarios.filter((s) => !explicitHoldout.some((h) => h.id === s.id)),\n        holdout: explicitHoldout as TScenario[],\n      }\n    : holdoutDeferred\n      ? { train: opts.scenarios, holdout: [] as TScenario[] }\n      : splitTrainHoldout(opts.scenarios, holdoutFraction)\n\n  if (train.length === 0) {\n    throw new Error(\n      'selfImprove: train split is empty. Reduce holdoutFraction or pass more scenarios.',\n    )\n  }\n  if (holdout.length === 0 && !holdoutDeferred) {\n    throw new Error('selfImprove: holdout split is empty. Pass more scenarios.')\n  }\n\n  if (generations > 0 && !opts.proposer && !opts.method) {\n    throw new Error(\n      'selfImprove: method or proposer is required when budget.generations is greater than zero',\n    )\n  }\n  let optimizationResult: OptimizationMethodResult | undefined\n  const methodPartitions = opts.method\n    ? splitMethodPartitions(train, opts.selectionScenarios, budget.selectionFraction ?? 0.25)\n    : undefined\n  const proposer: SurfaceProposer<ProposalFinding> = opts.method\n    ? {\n        kind: `method:${opts.method.name}`,\n        propose: async (context) => {\n          if (context.generation > 0) return []\n          const result = await opts.method!.optimize(\n            Object.freeze({\n              baselineSurface: structuredClone(context.currentSurface),\n              trainScenarios: Object.freeze(\n                methodPartitions!.train.map((scenario) => structuredClone(scenario)),\n              ),\n              selectionScenarios: Object.freeze(\n                methodPartitions!.selection.map((scenario) => structuredClone(scenario)),\n              ),\n              dispatchWithSurface: opts.agent,\n              judges: Object.freeze([opts.judge]),\n              runDir: `${runDir}/optimization/${safeRunComponent(opts.method!.name)}`,\n              seed: 42,\n              runOptions: Object.freeze({\n                storage,\n                maxConcurrency,\n                reps: budget.reps,\n                dispatchTimeoutMs: opts.dispatchTimeoutMs,\n                expectUsage,\n                costCeiling: budget.dollars,\n              }),\n              costLedger,\n            }),\n          )\n          assertOptimizationResult(opts.method!.name, result)\n          optimizationResult = structuredClone(result)\n          return [\n            {\n              surface: structuredClone(result.winnerSurface),\n              label: opts.method!.name,\n              rationale: `${opts.method!.name} selected this surface without final cases.`,\n            },\n          ]\n        },\n      }\n    : (opts.proposer ?? {\n        kind: 'baseline-only',\n        propose: async () => [],\n      })\n\n  const gate: Gate<TArtifact, TScenario> =\n    opts.gate ??\n    defaultProductionGate<TArtifact, TScenario>({\n      holdoutScenarios: holdout,\n      deltaThreshold: 0.05,\n    })\n\n  if (opts.onProgress) {\n    opts.onProgress({ kind: 'baseline.started', scenarios: opts.scenarios.length })\n  }\n\n  const result = await runImprovementLoop<TScenario, TArtifact>({\n    scenarios: train,\n    baselineSurface: opts.baselineSurface,\n    premeasuredBaseline: opts.premeasuredBaseline,\n    dispatchWithSurface: opts.agent,\n    proposer,\n    judges: [opts.judge],\n    populationSize,\n    maxGenerations: generations,\n    candidateConcurrency: budget.candidateConcurrency,\n    reps: budget.reps,\n    maxImprovementShots: budget.maxImprovementShots,\n    holdoutScenarios: holdout,\n    holdout: holdoutMode,\n    gate,\n    neutralize: opts.neutralize,\n    autoOnPromote: opts.autoOnPromote ?? 'none',\n    ghOwner: opts.ghOwner,\n    ghRepo: opts.ghRepo,\n    storage,\n    runDir,\n    maxConcurrency,\n    cellPlacement: opts.cellPlacement,\n    dispatchTimeoutMs: opts.dispatchTimeoutMs,\n    costLedger,\n    expectUsage,\n    labeledStore: opts.labeledStore,\n    captureSource: opts.captureSource,\n    analyzeGeneration: opts.analyzeGeneration,\n    findings: opts.findings,\n    selectionRankKey: opts.selectionRankKey,\n  })\n\n  // Deferred holdout ran zero holdout cells, so the summary stats come from\n  // the improvement-set (search) campaigns — labeled as such on the result\n  // type — and `lift` is omitted rather than fabricated from empty campaigns.\n  const reportSplit: RunSplitTag = holdoutDeferred ? 'search' : 'holdout'\n  const reportBaselineCampaign = holdoutDeferred\n    ? result.baselineCampaign\n    : result.baselineOnHoldout\n  const reportWinnerCampaign = holdoutDeferred\n    ? winnerSearchCampaign(result)\n    : result.winnerOnHoldout\n  const baseline = meanComposite(reportBaselineCampaign.aggregates.byScenario)\n  const winnerStats = meanComposite(reportWinnerCampaign.aggregates.byScenario)\n\n  // Power analysis from the baseline holdout cells — the number that says whether\n  // this budget could ship ANY effect. Attached to every result; loud when the\n  // search was structurally unable to promote (that spend should not repeat).\n  let power: PowerPreflight | undefined\n  const baselineHoldoutComposites = result.baselineOnHoldout.cells\n    .filter((cell) => !cell.error)\n    .map((cell) => {\n      const scores = Object.values(cell.judgeScores)\n      return scores.length === 0\n        ? Number.NaN\n        : scores.reduce((sum, s) => sum + s.composite, 0) / scores.length\n    })\n    .filter((v) => Number.isFinite(v))\n  if (baselineHoldoutComposites.length >= 3) {\n    // selfImprove's holdout is scored by the SAME judge as the gate — the\n    // shared-channel case by construction (S1c): flag it so the MDE reads as a\n    // lower bound and nobody buys reps expecting them to fix judge bias.\n    power = powerPreflight({\n      baselineComposites: baselineHoldoutComposites,\n      sharedScorerChannel: true,\n    })\n    if (opts.onProgress) {\n      opts.onProgress({\n        kind: 'power.estimated',\n        n: power.n,\n        sd: power.sd,\n        mde: power.mde,\n        underpowered: power.underpowered,\n      })\n    }\n    if (power.underpowered && generations > 0) {\n      console.warn(`[selfImprove] ${power.recommendation}`)\n    }\n  }\n\n  if (opts.onProgress) {\n    opts.onProgress({\n      kind: 'baseline.completed',\n      compositeMean: baseline.compositeMean,\n      durationMs: Date.now() - startedAt,\n    })\n    opts.onProgress({\n      kind: 'gate.decided',\n      decision: result.gateResult.decision,\n      // Deferred holdout has no held-out measurement: in that mode the summary\n      // stats are search-split numbers, and emitting their delta as `lift`\n      // would misreport a train-split delta as a held-out one. Omit instead.\n      ...(holdoutDeferred ? {} : { lift: winnerStats.compositeMean - baseline.compositeMean }),\n    })\n  }\n\n  const cost = result.cost\n  const totalCost = cost.totalCostUsd\n\n  // Rigor packet: feed baseline + winner cells through analyzeRuns().\n  // The two candidates (`baseline` / `winner`) give the lift section a\n  // clean paired comparison; per-judge / per-dimension / cost-quality\n  // sections populate from the cells' judgeScores.\n  const insight = await analyzeRuns({\n    runs: [\n      ...cellsToRunRecords(\n        reportBaselineCampaign.cells,\n        'baseline',\n        runDir,\n        opts.baselineSurface,\n        reportSplit,\n        opts.model,\n      ),\n      ...cellsToRunRecords(\n        reportWinnerCampaign.cells,\n        'winner',\n        runDir,\n        result.winnerSurface,\n        reportSplit,\n        opts.model,\n      ),\n    ],\n    baselineCandidateId: 'baseline',\n    candidateCandidateId: 'winner',\n  })\n\n  // ── Durable provenance: candidate→cell→gate→promote chain + rationale +\n  // diff + backend provenance. Always emitted; the +lift recomputes from it.\n  const durationMs = Date.now() - startedAt\n  const { record: provenance } = await emitLoopProvenance<TArtifact, TScenario>({\n    ...loopProvenanceArgsFromResult({\n      runId: `${runDir}#${startedAt}`,\n      runDir,\n      timestamp: new Date(startedAt).toISOString(),\n      baselineSurface: opts.baselineSurface,\n      result,\n      costReceipts: costLedger.list(),\n      totalCostUsd: totalCost,\n      totalDurationMs: durationMs,\n    }),\n    ...(optimizationResult\n      ? {\n          optimizationMethod: {\n            name: opts.method!.name,\n            cost: structuredClone(optimizationResult.cost),\n            ...(optimizationResult.durationMs === undefined\n              ? {}\n              : { durationMs: optimizationResult.durationMs }),\n            ...(optimizationResult.provenance === undefined\n              ? {}\n              : { provenance: structuredClone(optimizationResult.provenance) }),\n          },\n        }\n      : {}),\n    storage,\n    hostedClient: opts.hostedTenant ? createHostedClient(opts.hostedTenant) : undefined,\n  })\n  if (opts.onProvenance) opts.onProvenance(provenance)\n\n  const summary: SelfImproveResult<TScenario, TArtifact> = {\n    baseline,\n    winner: {\n      ...winnerStats,\n      surface: result.winnerSurface,\n      ...(result.winnerLabel ? { label: result.winnerLabel } : {}),\n      ...(result.winnerRationale ? { rationale: result.winnerRationale } : {}),\n    },\n    ...(holdoutDeferred ? {} : { lift: winnerStats.compositeMean - baseline.compositeMean }),\n    diff: result.promotedDiff,\n    provenance,\n    gateDecision: result.gateResult.decision,\n    generationsExplored: result.generations.length,\n    durationMs,\n    totalCostUsd: totalCost,\n    cost,\n    receipts: costLedger.list(),\n    ...(optimizationResult\n      ? {\n          optimization: {\n            name: opts.method!.name,\n            cost: structuredClone(optimizationResult.cost),\n            ...(optimizationResult.durationMs === undefined\n              ? {}\n              : { durationMs: optimizationResult.durationMs }),\n            ...(optimizationResult.provenance === undefined\n              ? {}\n              : { provenance: structuredClone(optimizationResult.provenance) }),\n          },\n        }\n      : {}),\n    insight,\n    ...(power ? { power } : {}),\n    raw: result,\n  }\n\n  // Opt-in hosted ingest. Failures are logged but never fail the loop: the\n  // local result is always returned.\n  if (opts.hostedTenant) {\n    try {\n      await shipEvalRunToHosted(opts.hostedTenant, opts, summary, result, runDir)\n    } catch (err) {\n      const msg = err instanceof Error ? err.message : String(err)\n      // eslint-disable-next-line no-console -- intentional: hosted-ingest is best-effort\n      console.warn(`[agent-eval] hosted ingest failed (continuing): ${msg}`)\n    }\n  }\n\n  return summary\n}\n\nasync function shipEvalRunToHosted<TScenario extends Scenario, TArtifact>(\n  tenant: HostedTenant,\n  opts: SelfImproveOptions<TScenario, TArtifact>,\n  summary: SelfImproveResult<TScenario, TArtifact>,\n  raw: RunImprovementLoopResult<TArtifact, TScenario>,\n  runDir: string,\n): Promise<void> {\n  const client = createHostedClient(tenant)\n\n  function snapshotFromCampaign(\n    index: number,\n    surface: MutableSurface,\n    campaign: RunImprovementLoopResult<TArtifact, TScenario>['baselineCampaign'],\n    durationMs: number,\n  ): EvalRunGenerationSnapshot {\n    const cells: EvalRunCellScore[] = campaign.cells.map((cell) => {\n      const execution = campaignCellExecutionEvidence(cell)\n      return {\n        scenarioId: cell.scenarioId,\n        rep: cell.rep,\n        compositeMean: campaignCellTaskScore(cell) ?? null,\n        dimensions: campaignCellJudgeDimensions(cell),\n        terminalOutcome: execution.terminalOutcome,\n        executionErrorCount: execution.executionErrorCount ?? null,\n        errorMessage: cell.error ?? undefined,\n      }\n    })\n    const scoredCells = cells.flatMap((cell) =>\n      cell.compositeMean === null ? [] : [cell.compositeMean],\n    )\n    const compositeMean =\n      scoredCells.length === 0\n        ? null\n        : scoredCells.reduce((sum, score) => sum + score, 0) / scoredCells.length\n    return {\n      index,\n      surfaceHash: surfaceHash(surface),\n      surface,\n      cells,\n      compositeMean,\n      costUsd: campaign.aggregates.cost.totalCostUsd,\n      durationMs,\n    }\n  }\n\n  const generations: EvalRunGenerationSnapshot[] = []\n  // Baseline as generation 0.\n  generations.push(snapshotFromCampaign(0, opts.baselineSurface, raw.baselineCampaign, 0))\n  // Improvement generations as 1..N. Substrate stores per-surface campaigns\n  // per generation — we summarize the WINNING surface per generation here.\n  for (const gen of raw.generations) {\n    const winner = gen.surfaces.reduce(\n      (best, s) =>\n        s.campaign.aggregates.cellsExecuted > 0 &&\n        (best === undefined || averageComposite(s.campaign) > averageComposite(best.campaign))\n          ? s\n          : best,\n      gen.surfaces[0],\n    )\n    if (!winner) continue\n    generations.push(\n      snapshotFromCampaign(gen.record.generationIndex + 1, winner.surface, winner.campaign, 0),\n    )\n  }\n\n  const event: EvalRunEvent = {\n    runId: `${runDir}#${Date.now()}`,\n    runDir,\n    timestamp: new Date().toISOString(),\n    status: 'finished',\n    labels: opts.hostedLabels ?? {},\n    baseline: generations[0],\n    generations,\n    gateDecision: summary.gateDecision,\n    holdoutLift: summary.lift,\n    totalCostUsd: summary.totalCostUsd,\n    totalDurationMs: summary.durationMs,\n    insightReport: summary.insight,\n  }\n\n  await client.ingestEvalRun(event)\n}\n\nfunction averageComposite(\n  campaign: RunImprovementLoopResult<unknown, Scenario>['baselineCampaign'],\n): number {\n  const aggs = Object.values(campaign.aggregates.byScenario)\n  return aggs.length === 0 ? 0 : aggs.reduce((s, a) => s + a.meanComposite, 0) / aggs.length\n}\n\nfunction hashString(s: string): string {\n  let h = 2166136261 >>> 0\n  for (let i = 0; i < s.length; i++) {\n    h ^= s.charCodeAt(i)\n    h = Math.imul(h, 16777619) >>> 0\n  }\n  return h.toString(16).padStart(8, '0')\n}\n\n/**\n * Adapt campaign cells into the `RunRecord` shape `analyzeRuns()` consumes.\n * Each cell becomes one run; `candidateId` is the caller-supplied label so\n * baseline + winner pair cleanly on `(experimentId, scenarioId, seed)`.\n *\n * `promptHash` is the REAL sha256 content hash of the surface this cell ran\n * (baseline vs winner are byte-distinguishable + byte-identical-verifiable);\n * `configHash` is the sha256 of the candidate label so the two candidates'\n * config rows differ. Both were previously the literal `'sha256:cell'`, which\n * made baseline and winner indistinguishable in every downstream record.\n */\nfunction cellsToRunRecords<TArtifact>(\n  cells: ReadonlyArray<CampaignCellResult<TArtifact>>,\n  candidateId: 'baseline' | 'winner',\n  runId: string,\n  surface: MutableSurface,\n  splitTag: RunSplitTag,\n  fallbackModel?: string,\n): RunRecord[] {\n  const promptHash = surfaceContentHash(surface)\n  const configHash = surfaceContentHash(candidateId)\n  return cells.map((cell) => {\n    const receiptModels = cell.resolvedModels ?? (cell.resolvedModel ? [cell.resolvedModel] : [])\n    if (receiptModels.length > 1) {\n      throw new ValidationError(\n        `selfImprove cell ${cell.cellId} used multiple agent models: ${receiptModels.join(', ')}`,\n      )\n    }\n    const model = receiptModels[0] ?? fallbackModel\n    if (!model) {\n      throw new ValidationError(\n        `selfImprove.model is required when cell ${cell.cellId} has no paid-call model receipt`,\n      )\n    }\n    if (!modelHasSnapshot(model)) {\n      throw new ValidationError(\n        `selfImprove model \"${model}\" lacks a snapshot version for cell ${cell.cellId}`,\n      )\n    }\n    return campaignCellToRunRecord(cell, {\n      runId: `${runId}::${candidateId}::${cell.cellId}`,\n      experimentId: runId,\n      candidateId,\n      // scenarioId is explicit; seed keeps repeated runs distinct.\n      seed:\n        cell.rep * 1_000_000 +\n        hashString(cell.scenarioId)\n          .slice(0, 6)\n          .split('')\n          .reduce((a, c) => (a * 31 + c.charCodeAt(0)) >>> 0, 0),\n      model,\n      promptHash,\n      configHash,\n      commitSha: 'cell',\n      splitTag,\n    })\n  })\n}\n","import type { RunEvalOptions } from '../campaign/presets/run-eval'\nimport { runEval } from '../campaign/presets/run-eval'\nimport { inMemoryCampaignStorage } from '../campaign/storage'\nimport type {\n  CampaignResult,\n  DispatchContext,\n  JudgeConfig,\n  MutableSurface,\n  Scenario,\n} from '../campaign/types'\nimport type { HostedTenant } from '../hosted/client'\nimport {\n  type SelfImproveBudget,\n  type SelfImproveOptions,\n  type SelfImproveResult,\n  selfImprove,\n} from './self-improve'\n\nexport type AgentEvalAgent<TScenario extends Scenario, TArtifact> = (\n  surface: MutableSurface,\n  scenario: TScenario,\n  ctx: DispatchContext,\n) => Promise<TArtifact>\n\nexport type DefineAgentEvalOptions<TScenario extends Scenario, TArtifact> = SelfImproveOptions<\n  TScenario,\n  TArtifact\n>\n\nexport interface AgentEvalEvaluateOptions<TScenario extends Scenario, TArtifact>\n  extends Omit<\n    RunEvalOptions<TScenario, TArtifact>,\n    'dispatch' | 'judges' | 'runDir' | 'scenarios'\n  > {\n  /** Scenario set to evaluate. Defaults to the scenarios passed to `defineAgentEval`. */\n  scenarios?: TScenario[]\n  /** Surface to evaluate. Defaults to the baseline surface passed to `defineAgentEval`. */\n  surface?: MutableSurface\n  /** Agent to evaluate. Defaults to the agent passed to `defineAgentEval`. */\n  agent?: AgentEvalAgent<TScenario, TArtifact>\n  /** Single judge override. Ignored when `judges` is set. */\n  judge?: JudgeConfig<TArtifact, TScenario>\n  /** Full judge list override. Defaults to the single judge passed to `defineAgentEval`. */\n  judges?: JudgeConfig<TArtifact, TScenario>[]\n  /** Logical or filesystem run directory. Defaults to an in-memory run. */\n  runDir?: string\n}\n\nexport type AgentEvalImproveOptions<TScenario extends Scenario, TArtifact> = Omit<\n  Partial<SelfImproveOptions<TScenario, TArtifact>>,\n  'budget' | 'hostedTenant'\n> & {\n  budget?: Partial<SelfImproveBudget>\n  hostedTenant?: Partial<HostedTenant>\n}\n\nexport interface DefinedAgentEval<TScenario extends Scenario, TArtifact> {\n  /** The default scenarios used by `evaluate()` and `improve()`. */\n  readonly scenarios: readonly TScenario[]\n  /** The default baseline surface used by `evaluate()` and `improve()`. */\n  readonly baselineSurface: MutableSurface\n  /**\n   * Run one scored evaluation. Use this for a baseline score or to score one\n   * candidate surface without running an improvement loop.\n   */\n  evaluate(\n    opts?: AgentEvalEvaluateOptions<TScenario, TArtifact>,\n  ): Promise<CampaignResult<TArtifact, TScenario>>\n  /**\n   * Run the closed improvement loop. Per-call overrides replace the definition\n   * except for nested config objects (`budget`, `hostedTenant`), which\n   * are merged field-by-field so callers can override one knob without\n   * repeating secrets or budget defaults.\n   */\n  improve(\n    opts?: AgentEvalImproveOptions<TScenario, TArtifact>,\n  ): Promise<SelfImproveResult<TScenario, TArtifact>>\n}\n\n/**\n * Define an agent eval once, then either score a surface with `evaluate()` or\n * run the closed loop with `improve()`.\n *\n * This is a DX wrapper only: it delegates to `runEval()` and `selfImprove()` and\n * returns their native result shapes.\n */\nexport function defineAgentEval<TScenario extends Scenario, TArtifact>(\n  defaults: DefineAgentEvalOptions<TScenario, TArtifact>,\n): DefinedAgentEval<TScenario, TArtifact> {\n  const defaultEvaluateOptions = evaluateDefaults(defaults)\n\n  return {\n    scenarios: defaults.scenarios,\n    baselineSurface: defaults.baselineSurface,\n\n    async evaluate(opts = {}) {\n      const { agent, judge, judges, runDir, scenarios, surface, ...campaignOpts } = opts\n      const selectedAgent = agent ?? defaults.agent\n      const selectedSurface = surface ?? defaults.baselineSurface\n      const selectedRunDir = runDir ?? defaults.runDir ?? `mem://defineAgentEval-${Date.now()}`\n      const selectedStorage =\n        campaignOpts.storage ??\n        defaultEvaluateOptions.storage ??\n        (selectedRunDir.startsWith('mem://') ? inMemoryCampaignStorage() : undefined)\n      const evalOptions: RunEvalOptions<TScenario, TArtifact> = {\n        ...defaultEvaluateOptions,\n        ...campaignOpts,\n        ...(selectedStorage ? { storage: selectedStorage } : {}),\n        runDir: selectedRunDir,\n        scenarios: scenarios ?? defaults.scenarios,\n        dispatch: (scenario, ctx) => selectedAgent(selectedSurface, scenario, ctx),\n        judges: evaluateJudges(judges, judge ?? defaults.judge),\n      }\n      if (evalOptions.reps !== undefined)\n        evalOptions.reps = requirePositiveInteger(evalOptions.reps, 'reps')\n      return runEval<TScenario, TArtifact>(evalOptions)\n    },\n\n    async improve(opts = {}) {\n      const {\n        budget: budgetOverride,\n        hostedTenant: hostedTenantOverride,\n        ...topLevelOverrides\n      } = opts\n      const merged = mergeDefined(defaults, topLevelOverrides)\n      const budget = mergeBudget(defaults.budget, budgetOverride)\n      const hostedTenant = mergeHostedTenant(defaults.hostedTenant, hostedTenantOverride)\n      return selfImprove<TScenario, TArtifact>({\n        ...merged,\n        ...(budget ? { budget } : {}),\n        ...(hostedTenant ? { hostedTenant } : {}),\n      })\n    },\n  }\n}\n\ntype SharedEvaluateDefaults<TScenario extends Scenario, TArtifact> = Omit<\n  RunEvalOptions<TScenario, TArtifact>,\n  'dispatch' | 'judges' | 'runDir' | 'scenarios'\n>\n\nfunction evaluateDefaults<TScenario extends Scenario, TArtifact>(\n  defaults: DefineAgentEvalOptions<TScenario, TArtifact>,\n): SharedEvaluateDefaults<TScenario, TArtifact> {\n  const out: SharedEvaluateDefaults<TScenario, TArtifact> = {}\n  if (defaults.storage) out.storage = defaults.storage\n  if (defaults.labeledStore) out.labeledStore = defaults.labeledStore\n  if (defaults.captureSource) out.captureSource = defaults.captureSource\n  if (defaults.cellPlacement) out.cellPlacement = defaults.cellPlacement\n  if (defaults.expectUsage) out.expectUsage = defaults.expectUsage\n  if (defaults.budget?.dollars !== undefined) out.costCeiling = defaults.budget.dollars\n  if (defaults.budget?.maxConcurrency !== undefined)\n    out.maxConcurrency = defaults.budget.maxConcurrency\n  if (defaults.budget?.reps !== undefined)\n    out.reps = requirePositiveInteger(defaults.budget.reps, 'budget.reps')\n  return out\n}\n\nfunction mergeBudget(\n  defaults: SelfImproveBudget | undefined,\n  overrides: Partial<SelfImproveBudget> | undefined,\n): SelfImproveBudget | undefined {\n  const merged = mergeOptionalObject(defaults, overrides)\n  if (merged?.reps !== undefined) merged.reps = requirePositiveInteger(merged.reps, 'budget.reps')\n  return merged\n}\n\nfunction mergeHostedTenant(\n  defaults: HostedTenant | undefined,\n  overrides: Partial<HostedTenant> | undefined,\n): HostedTenant | undefined {\n  const merged = mergeOptionalObject(defaults, overrides)\n  if (!merged) return undefined\n  if (!merged.endpoint?.trim() || !merged.apiKey?.trim() || !merged.tenantId?.trim()) {\n    throw new Error(\n      'defineAgentEval.improve: hostedTenant requires endpoint, apiKey, and tenantId after merging defaults and overrides',\n    )\n  }\n  return merged\n}\n\nfunction mergeDefined<T extends object>(defaults: T, overrides: Partial<T> | undefined): T {\n  if (!overrides) return defaults\n  const merged = { ...defaults } as Record<string, unknown>\n  for (const [key, value] of Object.entries(overrides)) {\n    if (value !== undefined) merged[key] = value\n  }\n  return merged as T\n}\n\nfunction mergeOptionalObject<T extends object>(\n  defaults: T | undefined,\n  overrides: Partial<T> | undefined,\n): T | undefined {\n  if (!defaults && !overrides) return undefined\n  return mergeDefined(defaults ?? ({} as T), overrides)\n}\n\nfunction evaluateJudges<TArtifact, TScenario extends Scenario>(\n  judges: JudgeConfig<TArtifact, TScenario>[] | undefined,\n  defaultJudge: JudgeConfig<TArtifact, TScenario>,\n): JudgeConfig<TArtifact, TScenario>[] {\n  if (judges !== undefined) {\n    if (judges.length === 0) {\n      throw new Error('defineAgentEval.evaluate: judges must not be empty')\n    }\n    return judges\n  }\n  return [defaultJudge]\n}\n\nfunction requirePositiveInteger(value: number, field: string): number {\n  if (!Number.isInteger(value) || value < 1) {\n    throw new Error(`defineAgentEval: ${field} must be a positive integer`)\n  }\n  return 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+{"version":3,"file":"define-agent-eval-CvZQW4u9.js","names":[],"sources":["../src/contamination-guard.ts","../src/contract/analyze-runs.ts","../src/contract/self-improve.ts","../src/contract/define-agent-eval.ts"],"sourcesContent":["/**\n * ContaminationGuard — ensures held-out scenarios don't leak into\n * training/prompt paths, and flags model memorization.\n *\n * Three probes:\n *   1. `checkCanaries(output, scenario)` — if the scenario carries a\n *      canary token, it MUST NOT appear in the agent's output.\n *      Canaries are strings that are statistically impossible to\n *      reconstruct from the scenario description alone — so if they\n *      echo back, the model memorized them.\n *   2. `canaryLeakView(store)` — cross-corpus view of every run whose\n *      output contained a canary, with the offending scenario + run.\n *   3. `HoldoutAuditor` — wraps a Dataset and emits a structured error\n *      on any code path that reads holdout scenarios but doesn't flag\n *      `purpose: 'evaluation'`. Keeps engineers honest.\n */\n\nimport type { DatasetScenario } from './dataset'\nimport { llmSpans } from './trace/query'\nimport type { TraceStore } from './trace/store'\n\nexport interface CanaryLeak {\n  scenarioId: string\n  canary: string\n  runId?: string\n  evidence: string\n}\n\nexport function checkCanaries(output: string, scenarios: DatasetScenario[]): CanaryLeak[] {\n  const leaks: CanaryLeak[] = []\n  for (const s of scenarios) {\n    if (!s.canary) continue\n    if (output.includes(s.canary)) {\n      leaks.push({ scenarioId: s.id, canary: s.canary, evidence: excerpt(output, s.canary) })\n    }\n  }\n  return leaks\n}\n\n/**\n * Behavioral canary: tests the AGENT, not the eval grep.\n *\n *   - `forbiddenPattern` PRESENT in output ⇒ AGENT EMITTED BAD CONTENT ⇒ LEAK.\n *   - `forbiddenPattern` ABSENT from output ⇒ AGENT HELD THE LINE       ⇒ PASS.\n *\n * Use when running known-bad-prompt scenarios against the agent under\n * test and you want to know if the agent misbehaved. The classical\n * {@link checkCanaries} / {@link import('./canary').runCanaries | runCanaries}\n * test whether the eval check fires when the bad output is forced\n * into the eval flow — different question, different answer.\n *\n * Pattern resolution order (first match wins):\n *   1. `scenario.forbiddenPattern` — if it parses as `/body/flags`,\n *      treated as a regex; otherwise a literal substring.\n *   2. `scenario.canary` — literal substring fallback so the helper\n *      works on existing scenario fixtures.\n *\n * Returns `null` when nothing forbidden was found OR the scenario\n * declared no pattern.\n */\nexport function checkBehavioralCanary(\n  output: string,\n  scenario: DatasetScenario,\n): CanaryLeak | null {\n  const pattern = scenario.forbiddenPattern ?? scenario.canary\n  if (!pattern) return null\n  const hit = matchForbidden(output, pattern)\n  if (!hit) return null\n  return {\n    scenarioId: scenario.id,\n    canary: pattern,\n    evidence: excerpt(output, hit),\n  }\n}\n\n/**\n * Behavioral canary over many (scenario, output) pairs. Sibling to\n * {@link import('./canary').runCanaries | runCanaries} — same idea\n * (run-many → report) but the question being answered is \"did the\n * AGENT misbehave?\" rather than \"did the EVAL grep fire?\".\n *\n * Returns one `CanaryLeak` per pair where the agent's output\n * contained its scenario's `forbiddenPattern` (or `canary` fallback).\n */\nexport function runBehavioralCanaries(\n  cases: Array<{ scenario: DatasetScenario; output: string; runId?: string }>,\n): CanaryLeak[] {\n  const leaks: CanaryLeak[] = []\n  for (const c of cases) {\n    const leak = checkBehavioralCanary(c.output, c.scenario)\n    if (leak) leaks.push({ ...leak, runId: c.runId ?? leak.runId })\n  }\n  return leaks\n}\n\n/**\n * Resolve a forbidden-pattern string to the matched substring inside\n * `output`. `/body/flags` notation is interpreted as a regex; anything\n * else is a literal substring.\n */\nfunction matchForbidden(output: string, pattern: string): string | null {\n  const re = tryParseRegex(pattern)\n  if (re) {\n    const m = output.match(re)\n    return m && m[0].length > 0 ? m[0] : null\n  }\n  return output.includes(pattern) ? pattern : null\n}\n\nfunction tryParseRegex(pattern: string): RegExp | null {\n  if (pattern.length < 2 || pattern[0] !== '/') return null\n  const last = pattern.lastIndexOf('/')\n  if (last <= 0) return null\n  const body = pattern.slice(1, last)\n  const flags = pattern.slice(last + 1)\n  if (!/^[gimsuy]*$/.test(flags)) return null\n  try {\n    return new RegExp(body, flags)\n  } catch {\n    return null\n  }\n}\n\n/**\n * Scan the LLM-output history in a corpus; returns every case where a\n * canary from a known scenario appeared in agent output. Pass the full\n * set of scenarios whose canaries you care about (typically the whole\n * held-out slice).\n */\nexport async function canaryLeakView(\n  store: TraceStore,\n  scenarios: DatasetScenario[],\n): Promise<CanaryLeak[]> {\n  const targets = scenarios.filter((s) => !!s.canary)\n  if (targets.length === 0) return []\n  const spans = await llmSpans(store)\n  const leaks: CanaryLeak[] = []\n  for (const span of spans) {\n    const output = span.output ?? ''\n    for (const s of targets) {\n      if (s.canary && output.includes(s.canary)) {\n        leaks.push({\n          scenarioId: s.id,\n          canary: s.canary,\n          runId: span.runId,\n          evidence: excerpt(output, s.canary),\n        })\n      }\n    }\n  }\n  return leaks\n}\n\nexport class HoldoutAuditor {\n  private scenarios: DatasetScenario[]\n  private accessLog: Array<{ scenarioId: string; purpose: string; at: number }> = []\n\n  constructor(scenarios: DatasetScenario[]) {\n    this.scenarios = scenarios\n  }\n\n  /** Retrieve a holdout scenario for a declared purpose. Non-'evaluation' throws. */\n  get(scenarioId: string, purpose: 'evaluation' | 'debugging'): DatasetScenario {\n    if (purpose !== 'evaluation' && purpose !== 'debugging') {\n      throw new Error(\n        `HoldoutAuditor.get: purpose must be 'evaluation' or 'debugging', got ${purpose}`,\n      )\n    }\n    const s = this.scenarios.find((x) => x.id === scenarioId)\n    if (!s) throw new Error(`holdout scenario \"${scenarioId}\" not found`)\n    this.accessLog.push({ scenarioId, purpose, at: Date.now() })\n    return s\n  }\n\n  getAccessLog(): ReadonlyArray<{ scenarioId: string; purpose: string; at: number }> {\n    return this.accessLog\n  }\n}\n\nfunction excerpt(source: string, needle: string): string {\n  const at = source.indexOf(needle)\n  if (at < 0) return ''\n  const start = Math.max(0, at - 30)\n  const end = Math.min(source.length, at + needle.length + 30)\n  return (start > 0 ? '…' : '') + source.slice(start, end) + (end < source.length ? '…' : '')\n}\n","/**\n * # `analyzeRuns()` — turn a set of agent runs into an actionable decision packet.\n *\n * Wires the substrate's statistical, calibration, clustering, Pareto, and\n * release-confidence primitives into one `InsightReport`. Two top-level\n * entry points use this function:\n *\n *   - `selfImprove()` calls it on the campaign output to attach a packet\n *     to every run.\n *   - Consumers with observed `RunRecord[]` (production traces, gold\n *     corpora, approve/reject tables) call it directly via `analyzeRuns()`\n *     for analysis without a closed loop.\n *\n * Every section is opt-in based on what the input data supports — the\n * function never invents signal. If runs carry no judge scores, `judges`\n * is empty. If there's no baseline/candidate split, `lift` is undefined.\n * If no `analyst` is wired, `failureClusters` is undefined.\n *\n * The `recommendations` array is the human-readable layer; everything\n * else is the evidence backing each recommendation.\n */\n\nimport type { AnalystRegistry } from '../analyst/registry'\nimport type { AnalystFinding } from '../analyst/types'\nimport { welchsTTest } from '../baseline'\nimport { checkCanaries } from '../contamination-guard'\nimport type { DatasetScenario } from '../dataset'\nimport { continuousAgreement } from '../judge-calibration'\nimport { pairRunRecords } from '../paired-arms'\nimport { observedSplitScore } from '../rollout/reward'\nimport {\n  type RunRecord,\n  type RunTerminalOutcome,\n  type RunTokenUsage,\n  validateRunRecord,\n} from '../run-record'\nimport {\n  BOOTSTRAP_GATE_MIN_N,\n  pairedBootstrap,\n  pairedCohensDz,\n  pairedMde,\n  pairedTTest,\n  pearsonR,\n  requiredPairedSampleSize,\n  spearmanR,\n} from '../statistics'\nimport { type ParetoFigureSpec, paretoChart } from '../summary-report'\nimport type { FailureClass } from '../trace/schema'\n\nimport type {\n  CostProvenanceSummary,\n  ExecutionInsight,\n  FailureClassTally,\n  FailureClusterInsight,\n  InsightReport,\n  InterRaterInsight,\n  JudgeInsight,\n  LiftInsight,\n  MetricDelta,\n  OutcomeCorrelationInsight,\n  PriorPeriodComparison,\n  Recommendation,\n  ScalarDistribution,\n  TokenUsageInsight,\n} from './insight-report'\n\n// ── Public API ───────────────────────────────────────────────────────\n\nexport interface AnalyzeRunsOptions {\n  /** The runs to analyze. */\n  runs: RunRecord[]\n  /** Which split to score against when reading composite from RunOutcome.\n   *  Default: holdout when ANY run has a `holdoutScore`, else search. */\n  split?: 'search' | 'holdout' | 'auto'\n  /** Pairwise analysis configuration. When both `baselineCandidateId` and\n   *  `candidateCandidateId` are present, lift is computed on paired\n   *  (experimentId, scenarioId, seed) identities shared between the two sides.\n   *  Unmatched rows remain visible in the lift result. */\n  baselineCandidateId?: string\n  candidateCandidateId?: string\n  /** Canary scenarios — checked against every run's raw output for\n   *  holdout contamination. */\n  canaryScenarios?: DatasetScenario[]\n  /** Analyst registry for failure clustering. When omitted, the\n   *  `failureClusters` section is left undefined. */\n  analyst?: AnalystRegistry\n  /** Downstream outcome metric per run (e.g. engagement rate, approval\n   *  rate, downstream pass rate). When present, the report includes\n   *  `outcomeCorrelation` + a simple linear reward model fit. */\n  outcomeSignal?: {\n    metric: string\n    valueByRunId: Record<string, number>\n  }\n  /** Multi-rater feedback for inter-rater agreement. Each entry is one\n   *  rater's score for one run. Two or more raters → kappa + disagreement\n   *  triage list. */\n  raterScores?: Array<{ runId: string; rater: string; score: number }>\n  /** Number of histogram bins for distributional summaries. Default 12. */\n  histogramBins?: number\n  /** Decision threshold — the smallest composite lift the caller cares\n   *  about. Used by the recommendations engine to call ship vs hold.\n   *  Default 0.02. */\n  decisionThreshold?: number\n  /** Optional prior-period runs. When set, the report includes\n   *  `priorPeriodComparison` with per-metric Welch-CI deltas and\n   *  recommendations fire on statistically significant regressions.\n   *  The two windows do NOT have to share scenarios — the comparison\n   *  is two-sample unpaired (the substrate's `lift` field uses paired\n   *  bootstrap on shared (experimentId, scenarioId, seed) identities; this is the\n   *  shape for \"this week vs last week\" rather than \"candidate vs\n   *  baseline within a campaign\"). */\n  baselineRuns?: RunRecord[]\n  /** Human-readable label for the baseline window, e.g. \"vs prior 7\n   *  days\", \"vs v3.1 release\". Surfaces in recommendations + UI. */\n  baselineLabel?: string\n}\n\nexport interface SummarizeExecutionOptions {\n  runs: RunRecord[]\n  histogramBins?: number\n}\n\nexport interface ExecutionReport {\n  execution: ExecutionInsight\n  costProvenance: CostProvenanceSummary\n}\n\n/** Summarize runtime facts without interpreting task quality or promotion readiness. */\nexport function summarizeExecution(opts: SummarizeExecutionOptions): ExecutionReport {\n  const runs = opts.runs.map(validateRunRecord)\n  const bins = opts.histogramBins ?? 12\n  return {\n    execution: computeExecutionInsight(runs, bins),\n    costProvenance: summarizeCostProvenance(runs),\n  }\n}\n\n/** A bootstrap interval with no spread: every resample landed on the same\n *  value, so the interval carries no information about how far the point\n *  estimate could be wrong and cannot support a directional claim. */\nfunction zeroWidth(ci: readonly [number, number]): boolean {\n  return !Number.isFinite(ci[0]) || !Number.isFinite(ci[1]) || ci[0] === ci[1]\n}\n\nexport async function analyzeRuns(opts: AnalyzeRunsOptions): Promise<InsightReport> {\n  const runs = opts.runs.map(validateRunRecord)\n  const bins = opts.histogramBins ?? 12\n  const threshold = opts.decisionThreshold ?? 0.02\n  if (!Number.isFinite(threshold)) {\n    throw new Error(`analyzeRuns: decisionThreshold must be finite, got ${threshold}`)\n  }\n  const split = resolveSplit(runs, opts.split ?? 'auto')\n\n  const compositeWithIds = runs\n    .map((r) => ({ runId: r.runId, score: compositeOf(r, split) }))\n    .filter((p) => Number.isFinite(p.score))\n  const composite = distributionOf(\n    compositeWithIds.map((p) => p.score),\n    bins,\n    compositeWithIds,\n  )\n\n  const perDimension = computePerDimension(runs, bins)\n  const { execution, costProvenance: provenance } = summarizeExecution({\n    runs,\n    histogramBins: bins,\n  })\n  const knownCostRuns = runs.filter((run) => run.costProvenance.kind !== 'uncaptured')\n  const costs = knownCostRuns.map((r) => r.costUsd).filter(isFiniteNumber)\n  const costDist = distributionOf(costs, bins)\n  const pareto = paretoChart(knownCostRuns, { split })\n  const degraded: { cost?: string; pareto?: string } = {}\n  if (provenance.uncaptured.n > 0) {\n    degraded.cost = diagnoseCostCoverage(runs, provenance)\n  } else if (costs.length === 0 || costs.every((c) => c === 0)) {\n    degraded.cost = `all ${runs.length} explicitly observed or estimated USD values are $0`\n  }\n  if (pareto.points.length < 2) {\n    degraded.pareto =\n      pareto.points.length === 0\n        ? 'no candidates — Pareto unavailable'\n        : 'single candidate — Pareto is a single point, not a frontier'\n  }\n  const costQuality = {\n    cost: costDist,\n    pareto,\n    provenance,\n    ...(degraded.cost || degraded.pareto ? { degraded } : {}),\n  }\n\n  const judges = computeJudgeInsights(runs)\n\n  const interRater = opts.raterScores ? computeInterRater(opts.raterScores) : undefined\n\n  const lift = computeLift(runs, opts.baselineCandidateId, opts.candidateCandidateId, split)\n\n  const failureClusters = opts.analyst\n    ? await computeFailureClusters(runs, opts.analyst, split)\n    : undefined\n\n  const failureClasses = computeFailureClasses(runs, split)\n\n  const contamination = opts.canaryScenarios\n    ? computeContamination(runs, opts.canaryScenarios)\n    : undefined\n\n  const outcomeCorrelation = opts.outcomeSignal\n    ? computeOutcomeCorrelation(runs, opts.outcomeSignal, split)\n    : undefined\n\n  const release = buildReleaseScorecard(composite, lift, contamination)\n\n  const priorPeriodComparison = opts.baselineRuns\n    ? computePriorPeriodComparison(runs, opts.baselineRuns, split, opts.baselineLabel)\n    : undefined\n\n  const recommendations = buildRecommendations({\n    composite,\n    judges,\n    interRater,\n    lift,\n    failureClusters,\n    failureClasses,\n    contamination,\n    outcomeCorrelation,\n    priorPeriodComparison,\n    threshold,\n  })\n\n  return {\n    n: runs.length,\n    execution,\n    composite,\n    perDimension,\n    costQuality,\n    judges,\n    interRater,\n    lift,\n    failureClusters,\n    contamination,\n    outcomeCorrelation,\n    release,\n    ...(failureClasses ? { failureClasses } : {}),\n    ...(priorPeriodComparison ? { priorPeriodComparison } : {}),\n    recommendations,\n  }\n}\n\nfunction computeExecutionInsight(runs: RunRecord[], bins: number): ExecutionInsight {\n  const aggregateRows = runs.flatMap((run) => {\n    const usage = aggregateTokenUsage(run)\n    return usage ? [{ usage, costUsd: finiteRaw(run, 'aggregate_cost_usd') }] : []\n  })\n  const aggregateCosts = aggregateRows.flatMap((row) =>\n    row.costUsd !== undefined ? [row.costUsd] : [],\n  )\n  const modelCounts = new Map<string, number>()\n  let executionErrorRuns = 0\n  let executionErrorEvents = 0\n  let errorReportingRuns = 0\n  let errorSpanEvents = 0\n  let errorSpanReportingRuns = 0\n  const terminalOutcomes: Record<RunTerminalOutcome, number> = {\n    succeeded: 0,\n    failed: 0,\n    cancelled: 0,\n    incomplete: 0,\n    unknown: 0,\n  }\n  const errorsByTerminalOutcome: ExecutionInsight['executionErrors']['byTerminalOutcome'] = {\n    succeeded: { withErrors: 0, withoutErrors: 0, unreported: 0 },\n    failed: { withErrors: 0, withoutErrors: 0, unreported: 0 },\n    cancelled: { withErrors: 0, withoutErrors: 0, unreported: 0 },\n    incomplete: { withErrors: 0, withoutErrors: 0, unreported: 0 },\n    unknown: { withErrors: 0, withoutErrors: 0, unreported: 0 },\n  }\n  let modelCallRuns = 0\n  let modelCallEvents = 0\n  let modelCallReportingRuns = 0\n\n  for (const run of runs) {\n    modelCounts.set(run.model, (modelCounts.get(run.model) ?? 0) + 1)\n    const terminalOutcome = run.terminalOutcome\n    terminalOutcomes[terminalOutcome] += 1\n    const modelCalls = nonNegativeCountRaw(run, 'llm_span_count')\n    if (modelCalls !== undefined) {\n      modelCallEvents += modelCalls\n      modelCallReportingRuns += 1\n    }\n    const usage = run.tokenUsage\n    if (\n      (modelCalls ?? 0) > 0 ||\n      usage.input > 0 ||\n      usage.output > 0 ||\n      (usage.cached ?? 0) > 0 ||\n      (usage.cacheWrite ?? 0) > 0\n    ) {\n      modelCallRuns += 1\n    }\n    const errorEvents = reportedExecutionErrorEvents(run)\n    if (errorEvents !== undefined) {\n      executionErrorEvents += errorEvents\n      errorReportingRuns += 1\n      if (errorEvents > 0) {\n        executionErrorRuns += 1\n        errorsByTerminalOutcome[terminalOutcome].withErrors += 1\n      } else errorsByTerminalOutcome[terminalOutcome].withoutErrors += 1\n    } else errorsByTerminalOutcome[terminalOutcome].unreported += 1\n    const reportedErrorSpans = nonNegativeCountRaw(run, 'error_span_count')\n    if (reportedErrorSpans !== undefined) {\n      errorSpanEvents += reportedErrorSpans\n      errorSpanReportingRuns += 1\n    }\n  }\n\n  return {\n    durationMs: distributionOf(\n      runs.map((run) => run.wallMs),\n      bins,\n    ),\n    queueMs: distributionOf(\n      runs.filter((run) => run.queueMs !== undefined).map((run) => run.queueMs!),\n      bins,\n    ),\n    tokenUsage: summarizeTokenUsage(\n      runs.map((run) => run.tokenUsage),\n      bins,\n    ),\n    aggregateUsage: {\n      runs: aggregateRows.length,\n      tokenUsage: summarizeTokenUsage(\n        aggregateRows.map((row) => row.usage),\n        bins,\n      ),\n      costUsd: distributionOf(aggregateCosts, bins),\n      totalCostUsd: aggregateCosts.reduce((total, value) => total + value, 0),\n    },\n    models: [...modelCounts.entries()]\n      .map(([model, count]) => ({ model, runs: count }))\n      .sort((left, right) => right.runs - left.runs || left.model.localeCompare(right.model)),\n    modelCalls: {\n      runs: modelCallRuns,\n      events: modelCallEvents,\n      reportingRuns: modelCallReportingRuns,\n    },\n    executionErrors: {\n      runs: executionErrorRuns,\n      fraction: errorReportingRuns > 0 ? executionErrorRuns / errorReportingRuns : null,\n      events: executionErrorEvents,\n      reportingRuns: errorReportingRuns,\n      errorSpanEvents,\n      errorSpanReportingRuns,\n      byTerminalOutcome: errorsByTerminalOutcome,\n    },\n    terminalOutcomes,\n  }\n}\n\nfunction reportedExecutionErrorEvents(run: RunRecord): number | undefined {\n  return nonNegativeCountRaw(run, 'execution_error_count')\n}\n\nfunction nonNegativeCountRaw(run: RunRecord, key: string): number | undefined {\n  const value = finiteRaw(run, key)\n  return value !== undefined && Number.isInteger(value) && value >= 0 ? value : undefined\n}\n\nfunction summarizeTokenUsage(usages: RunTokenUsage[], bins: number): TokenUsageInsight {\n  const reasoning = usages.flatMap((usage) =>\n    usage.reasoning !== undefined ? [usage.reasoning] : [],\n  )\n  const cached = usages.flatMap((usage) => (usage.cached !== undefined ? [usage.cached] : []))\n  const cacheWrite = usages.flatMap((usage) =>\n    usage.cacheWrite !== undefined ? [usage.cacheWrite] : [],\n  )\n  return {\n    input: distributionOf(\n      usages.map((usage) => usage.input),\n      bins,\n    ),\n    output: distributionOf(\n      usages.map((usage) => usage.output),\n      bins,\n    ),\n    reasoning: distributionOf(reasoning, bins),\n    cached: distributionOf(cached, bins),\n    cacheWrite: distributionOf(cacheWrite, bins),\n    totals: {\n      input: usages.reduce((total, usage) => total + usage.input, 0),\n      output: usages.reduce((total, usage) => total + usage.output, 0),\n      reasoning: reasoning.reduce((total, value) => total + value, 0),\n      cached: cached.reduce((total, value) => total + value, 0),\n      cacheWrite: cacheWrite.reduce((total, value) => total + value, 0),\n    },\n  }\n}\n\nfunction aggregateTokenUsage(run: RunRecord): RunTokenUsage | undefined {\n  const input = finiteRaw(run, 'aggregate_prompt_tokens')\n  const output = finiteRaw(run, 'aggregate_completion_tokens')\n  const reasoning = finiteRaw(run, 'aggregate_reasoning_tokens')\n  const cached = finiteRaw(run, 'aggregate_cached_tokens')\n  const cacheWrite = finiteRaw(run, 'aggregate_cache_write_tokens')\n  if (\n    input === undefined &&\n    output === undefined &&\n    reasoning === undefined &&\n    cached === undefined &&\n    cacheWrite === undefined\n  )\n    return undefined\n  return {\n    input: input ?? 0,\n    output: output ?? 0,\n    ...(reasoning !== undefined ? { reasoning } : {}),\n    ...(cached !== undefined ? { cached } : {}),\n    ...(cacheWrite !== undefined ? { cacheWrite } : {}),\n  }\n}\n\nfunction finiteRaw(run: RunRecord, key: string): number | undefined {\n  const value = run.outcome.raw[key]\n  return typeof value === 'number' && Number.isFinite(value) && value >= 0 ? value : undefined\n}\n\nfunction summarizeCostProvenance(runs: RunRecord[]): CostProvenanceSummary {\n  const summary: CostProvenanceSummary = {\n    observed: { n: 0, totalUsd: 0 },\n    estimated: { n: 0, totalUsd: 0 },\n    uncaptured: { n: 0 },\n    knownFraction: 0,\n  }\n  for (const run of runs) {\n    const cost = run.costProvenance\n    if (cost.kind === 'uncaptured') {\n      summary.uncaptured.n += 1\n    } else {\n      summary[cost.kind].n += 1\n      summary[cost.kind].totalUsd += cost.usd\n    }\n  }\n  const known = summary.observed.n + summary.estimated.n\n  summary.knownFraction = runs.length > 0 ? known / runs.length : 0\n  return summary\n}\n\nfunction diagnoseCostCoverage(runs: RunRecord[], provenance: CostProvenanceSummary): string {\n  const uncaptured = provenance.uncaptured.n\n  const known = provenance.observed.n + provenance.estimated.n\n  if (uncaptured === runs.length) {\n    return `USD cost uncaptured for all ${runs.length} runs — no observed or estimated USD values; token and wall-time metrics remain available.`\n  }\n  return `USD cost uncaptured for ${uncaptured}/${runs.length} runs; excluded those rows from cost statistics (${known}/${runs.length} retained: ${provenance.observed.n} observed, ${provenance.estimated.n} estimated).`\n}\n\n/**\n * Model-free task-failure tally.\n *\n * Explicit non-success classes are task-failure evidence.\n * A low task score without a class is counted as `unknown`.\n */\nfunction computeFailureClasses(\n  runs: RunRecord[],\n  split: 'search' | 'holdout',\n): FailureClassTally[] | undefined {\n  const counts = new Map<FailureClass, number>()\n  for (const r of runs) {\n    if (!isTaskFailure(r, split)) continue\n    const key =\n      r.failureClass !== undefined && r.failureClass !== 'success' ? r.failureClass : 'unknown'\n    counts.set(key, (counts.get(key) ?? 0) + 1)\n  }\n  if (counts.size === 0) return undefined\n  const n = runs.length\n  return [...counts.entries()]\n    .map(([failureClass, count]) => ({\n      failureClass,\n      count,\n      share: n > 0 ? count / n : 0,\n    }))\n    .sort((a, b) => b.count - a.count || a.failureClass.localeCompare(b.failureClass))\n}\n\n// ── Prior-period comparison ─────────────────────────────────────────\n\n/** Direction of the metric — does \"higher current\" mean better or worse?\n *  Composite + judge dimensions: higher is better. Cost + duration: lower\n *  is better. The recommendations engine flips the sign before judging\n *  regressed vs improved. */\ntype MetricDirection = 'higher-is-better' | 'lower-is-better'\n\nfunction computePriorPeriodComparison(\n  current: RunRecord[],\n  baseline: RunRecord[],\n  split: 'search' | 'holdout',\n  windowLabel: string | undefined,\n): PriorPeriodComparison | undefined {\n  if (current.length === 0 || baseline.length === 0) return undefined\n\n  const metrics: Record<string, MetricDelta> = {}\n  const directions: Record<string, MetricDirection> = {}\n\n  const compositeCurrent = current\n    .map((r) => compositeOf(r, split))\n    .filter(Number.isFinite) as number[]\n  const compositeBaseline = baseline\n    .map((r) => compositeOf(r, split))\n    .filter(Number.isFinite) as number[]\n  if (compositeCurrent.length > 0 && compositeBaseline.length > 0) {\n    metrics.composite = welchCompare(compositeBaseline, compositeCurrent)\n    directions.composite = 'higher-is-better'\n  }\n\n  const costCurrent = knownCostValues(current)\n  const costBaseline = knownCostValues(baseline)\n  if (costCurrent.length > 0 && costBaseline.length > 0) {\n    metrics.cost = welchCompare(costBaseline, costCurrent)\n    directions.cost = 'lower-is-better'\n  }\n\n  const durCurrent = current.map((r) => r.wallMs).filter(Number.isFinite)\n  const durBaseline = baseline.map((r) => r.wallMs).filter(Number.isFinite)\n  if (durCurrent.length > 0 && durBaseline.length > 0) {\n    metrics.duration = welchCompare(durBaseline, durCurrent)\n    directions.duration = 'lower-is-better'\n  }\n\n  const tokCurrent = current\n    .map((r) => (r.tokenUsage.input ?? 0) + (r.tokenUsage.output ?? 0))\n    .filter(Number.isFinite)\n  const tokBaseline = baseline\n    .map((r) => (r.tokenUsage.input ?? 0) + (r.tokenUsage.output ?? 0))\n    .filter(Number.isFinite)\n  if (tokCurrent.length > 0 && tokBaseline.length > 0) {\n    metrics.tokenUsage = welchCompare(tokBaseline, tokCurrent)\n    directions.tokenUsage = 'lower-is-better'\n  }\n\n  // Per-dimension judge comparisons — only for dimensions present in BOTH\n  // windows. We use perDimMean since per-judge nesting is finicky for\n  // two-sample comparisons across different judge configurations.\n  const dimsCurrent = collectPerDimension(current)\n  const dimsBaseline = collectPerDimension(baseline)\n  for (const dim of Object.keys(dimsCurrent)) {\n    const b = dimsBaseline[dim]\n    const c = dimsCurrent[dim]\n    if (!b || b.length === 0 || !c || c.length === 0) continue\n    metrics[`dim.${dim}`] = welchCompare(b, c)\n    directions[`dim.${dim}`] = 'higher-is-better'\n  }\n\n  const regressedMetrics: string[] = []\n  const improvedMetrics: string[] = []\n  const inconclusiveMetrics: string[] = []\n  for (const [name, delta] of Object.entries(metrics)) {\n    if (delta.status !== 'ok') {\n      inconclusiveMetrics.push(name)\n      continue\n    }\n    if (!delta.significant) continue\n    const dir = directions[name] ?? 'higher-is-better'\n    const better = dir === 'higher-is-better' ? delta.delta > 0 : delta.delta < 0\n    if (better) improvedMetrics.push(name)\n    else regressedMetrics.push(name)\n  }\n\n  return {\n    baselineN: baseline.length,\n    currentN: current.length,\n    ...(windowLabel ? { windowLabel } : {}),\n    metrics,\n    regressedMetrics,\n    improvedMetrics,\n    inconclusiveMetrics,\n  }\n}\n\nfunction knownCostValues(runs: RunRecord[]): number[] {\n  return runs\n    .filter((run) => run.costProvenance.kind !== 'uncaptured')\n    .map((run) => run.costUsd)\n    .filter(isFiniteNumber)\n}\n\nfunction isFiniteNumber(value: unknown): value is number {\n  return typeof value === 'number' && Number.isFinite(value)\n}\n\n/** Collect per-dimension values across runs (from outcome.judgeScores.perDimMean). */\nfunction collectPerDimension(runs: RunRecord[]): Record<string, number[]> {\n  const out: Record<string, number[]> = {}\n  for (const r of runs) {\n    const perDim = r.outcome.judgeScores?.perDimMean\n    if (!perDim) continue\n    for (const [dim, value] of Object.entries(perDim)) {\n      if (!Number.isFinite(value)) continue\n      if (!out[dim]) out[dim] = []\n      out[dim].push(value as number)\n    }\n  }\n  return out\n}\n\n/** Adapt the shared two-sample Welch result to the report contract. */\nfunction welchCompare(baseline: number[], current: number[]): MetricDelta {\n  const result = welchsTTest(baseline, current)\n  const base = {\n    current: result.meanB,\n    baseline: result.meanA,\n    delta: result.delta,\n    baselineN: baseline.length,\n    currentN: current.length,\n  }\n  if (result.status !== 'ok') {\n    return {\n      ...base,\n      status: result.status,\n      ci95: null,\n      pValue: null,\n      cohensD: null,\n      significant: false,\n    }\n  }\n  return {\n    ...base,\n    status: 'ok',\n    ci95: result.ci95,\n    pValue: result.p,\n    cohensD: result.cohensD,\n    significant: result.p < 0.05 && Math.abs(result.cohensD) >= 0.2,\n  }\n}\n\n// ── Composite + split selection ─────────────────────────────────────\n\nfunction resolveSplit(\n  runs: RunRecord[],\n  pref: 'search' | 'holdout' | 'auto',\n): 'search' | 'holdout' {\n  if (pref !== 'auto') return pref\n  const hasHoldout = runs.some((r) => Number.isFinite(observedSplitScore(r, 'holdout')))\n  return hasHoldout ? 'holdout' : 'search'\n}\n\n/**\n * RAW (`observedSplitScore`): `analyzeRuns` describes what a set of runs\n * reported, and every downstream reader of this composite — distributions,\n * per-candidate summaries, the reward-hacking correlation — needs the ungated\n * number to see an inflated run at all.\n */\nfunction compositeOf(run: RunRecord, split: 'search' | 'holdout'): number {\n  // Split-exact, no cross-split fallthrough: answering \"what did this run\n  // score on the split I am summarising\" with the other split's number\n  // silently mixes populations.\n  const score = observedSplitScore(run, split)\n  return Number.isFinite(score) ? (score as number) : Number.NaN\n}\n\n// ── Distribution helpers ────────────────────────────────────────────\n\nfunction distributionOf(\n  values: number[],\n  bins: number,\n  withIds?: Array<{ runId: string; score: number }>,\n): ScalarDistribution {\n  if (values.length === 0) {\n    return {\n      n: 0,\n      mean: null,\n      p50: null,\n      p95: null,\n      stddev: null,\n      min: null,\n      max: null,\n      histogram: [],\n    }\n  }\n  const sorted = [...values].sort((a, b) => a - b)\n  const n = sorted.length\n  const mean = sorted.reduce((s, v) => s + v, 0) / n\n  const variance = sorted.reduce((s, v) => s + (v - mean) ** 2, 0) / n\n  const stddev = Math.sqrt(variance)\n  const tailRuns = withIds\n    ? [...withIds].sort((a, b) => a.score - b.score).slice(0, Math.min(5, withIds.length))\n    : undefined\n  return {\n    n,\n    mean,\n    p50: percentile(sorted, 0.5),\n    p95: percentile(sorted, 0.95),\n    stddev,\n    min: sorted[0]!,\n    max: sorted[n - 1]!,\n    histogram: histogram(sorted, bins),\n    ...(tailRuns ? { tailRuns } : {}),\n  }\n}\n\nfunction percentile(sorted: number[], q: number): number {\n  if (sorted.length === 0) return 0\n  if (sorted.length === 1) return sorted[0]!\n  const idx = (sorted.length - 1) * q\n  const lo = Math.floor(idx)\n  const hi = Math.ceil(idx)\n  if (lo === hi) return sorted[lo]!\n  const w = idx - lo\n  return sorted[lo]! * (1 - w) + sorted[hi]! * w\n}\n\n/** Even-width histogram over the value range. Returns inclusive-lo /\n *  exclusive-hi bins (closed on right for the last bin) compatible with\n *  the substrate's `GainDistributionBin` shape. */\nfunction histogram(sorted: number[], bins: number): ScalarDistribution['histogram'] {\n  if (sorted.length === 0 || bins < 1) return []\n  const min = sorted[0]!\n  const max = sorted[sorted.length - 1]!\n  if (min === max) return [{ lo: min, hi: max, count: sorted.length }]\n  const width = (max - min) / bins\n  const out: ScalarDistribution['histogram'] = []\n  for (let i = 0; i < bins; i++) {\n    const lo = min + i * width\n    const hi = i === bins - 1 ? max : lo + width\n    out.push({ lo, hi, count: 0 })\n  }\n  for (const v of sorted) {\n    const idx = Math.min(bins - 1, Math.floor((v - min) / width))\n    out[idx]!.count++\n  }\n  return out\n}\n\nfunction computePerDimension(runs: RunRecord[], bins: number): Record<string, ScalarDistribution> {\n  // JudgeScoresRecord pre-aggregates `perDimMean` (mean across judges per\n  // dimension). We collect those means across runs to produce a per-dim\n  // distribution at the corpus level. Consumers who want per-judge\n  // dimension values reach into `perJudge[judgeId][dim]` themselves.\n  const byDim = new Map<string, number[]>()\n  for (const run of runs) {\n    const scores = run.outcome.judgeScores\n    if (!scores) continue\n    for (const [dim, value] of Object.entries(scores.perDimMean ?? {})) {\n      if (!Number.isFinite(value)) continue\n      const arr = byDim.get(dim) ?? []\n      arr.push(value)\n      byDim.set(dim, arr)\n    }\n  }\n  const out: Record<string, ScalarDistribution> = {}\n  for (const [dim, values] of byDim) out[dim] = distributionOf(values, bins)\n  return out\n}\n\n// ── Judge insights ──────────────────────────────────────────────────\n\nfunction computeJudgeInsights(runs: RunRecord[]): Record<string, JudgeInsight> {\n  // Each judge's per-run mean is the average of its per-dimension scores\n  // for that run. We aggregate those means across all runs each judge\n  // scored — giving consumers a \"this judge's typical verdict\" reading.\n  const out: Record<string, JudgeInsight> = {}\n  const byJudge = new Map<string, number[]>()\n  for (const run of runs) {\n    const scores = run.outcome.judgeScores\n    if (!scores?.perJudge) continue\n    for (const [judgeId, dims] of Object.entries(scores.perJudge)) {\n      const dimValues = Object.values(dims).filter(Number.isFinite) as number[]\n      if (dimValues.length === 0) continue\n      const judgeMean = dimValues.reduce((s, v) => s + v, 0) / dimValues.length\n      const arr = byJudge.get(judgeId) ?? []\n      arr.push(judgeMean)\n      byJudge.set(judgeId, arr)\n    }\n  }\n  for (const [judgeId, values] of byJudge) {\n    out[judgeId] = {\n      n: values.length,\n      meanScore: values.reduce((s, v) => s + v, 0) / values.length,\n    }\n  }\n  return out\n}\n\n// ── Inter-rater agreement ───────────────────────────────────────────\n\nfunction computeInterRater(\n  ratings: Array<{ runId: string; rater: string; score: number }>,\n): InterRaterInsight | undefined {\n  const byRun = new Map<string, Array<{ rater: string; score: number }>>()\n  for (const r of ratings) {\n    if (!Number.isFinite(r.score)) continue\n    const list = byRun.get(r.runId) ?? []\n    list.push({ rater: r.rater, score: r.score })\n    byRun.set(r.runId, list)\n  }\n  const raters = new Set(ratings.map((r) => r.rater))\n  const jointlyRated: string[] = []\n  for (const [runId, ratersForRun] of byRun) {\n    const seen = new Set(ratersForRun.map((r) => r.rater))\n    let all = true\n    for (const r of raters) if (!seen.has(r)) all = false\n    if (all) jointlyRated.push(runId)\n  }\n  if (raters.size < 2 || jointlyRated.length === 0) return undefined\n\n  const raterList = [...raters].sort()\n  const perPair: Record<string, number> = {}\n  for (let i = 0; i < raterList.length; i++) {\n    for (let j = i + 1; j < raterList.length; j++) {\n      const a = raterList[i]!\n      const b = raterList[j]!\n      const aScores: number[] = []\n      const bScores: number[] = []\n      for (const runId of jointlyRated) {\n        const ratersForRun = byRun.get(runId)!\n        const sa = ratersForRun.find((r) => r.rater === a)?.score\n        const sb = ratersForRun.find((r) => r.rater === b)?.score\n        if (sa !== undefined && sb !== undefined) {\n          aScores.push(sa)\n          bScores.push(sb)\n        }\n      }\n      const agreement = continuousAgreement(\n        aScores.map((score, index) => [score, bScores[index]!]),\n        { bootstrap: 0 },\n      )\n      perPair[`${a}::${b}`] = agreement.weightedKappa\n    }\n  }\n  const matrix = jointlyRated.map((runId) => {\n    const ratingsByRater = new Map(byRun.get(runId)!.map((rating) => [rating.rater, rating.score]))\n    return raterList.map((rater) => ratingsByRater.get(rater)!)\n  })\n  const agreement = continuousAgreement(matrix, { bootstrap: 0 })\n\n  const disagreementCases = jointlyRated\n    .map((runId) => {\n      const ratersForRun = byRun.get(runId)!\n      const scores = ratersForRun.map((r) => r.score)\n      const range = Math.max(...scores) - Math.min(...scores)\n      return { runId, ratings: ratersForRun, range }\n    })\n    .sort((a, b) => b.range - a.range)\n    .slice(0, 20)\n\n  return {\n    raters: raters.size,\n    jointlyRated: jointlyRated.length,\n    kappa: Number.isFinite(agreement.weightedKappa) ? agreement.weightedKappa : 0,\n    icc: agreement.icc,\n    pearson: agreement.pearson,\n    spearman: agreement.spearman,\n    perPair,\n    disagreementCases,\n  }\n}\n\n// ── Lift ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────\n\nfunction computeLift(\n  runs: RunRecord[],\n  baselineId: string | undefined,\n  candidateId: string | undefined,\n  split: 'search' | 'holdout',\n): LiftInsight | undefined {\n  let bId = baselineId\n  let cId = candidateId\n  if (!bId || !cId) {\n    // Auto-detect: when exactly two distinct candidateIds appear, treat the\n    // lower-mean side as baseline.\n    const ids = [...new Set(runs.map((r) => r.candidateId))]\n    if (ids.length !== 2) return undefined\n    const [idA, idB] = ids as [string, string]\n    const scoresA = finiteCompositeScores(\n      runs.filter((run) => run.candidateId === idA),\n      split,\n    )\n    const scoresB = finiteCompositeScores(\n      runs.filter((run) => run.candidateId === idB),\n      split,\n    )\n    if (scoresA.length === 0 || scoresB.length === 0) return undefined\n    const meanA = mean(scoresA)\n    const meanB = mean(scoresB)\n    bId = meanA <= meanB ? idA : idB\n    cId = meanA <= meanB ? idB : idA\n  }\n\n  const baseline = runs.filter((r) => r.candidateId === bId)\n  const candidate = runs.filter((r) => r.candidateId === cId)\n  if (baseline.length === 0 || candidate.length === 0) return undefined\n\n  const scoredBaseline = baseline.filter((run) => Number.isFinite(compositeOf(run, split)))\n  const scoredCandidate = candidate.filter((run) => Number.isFinite(compositeOf(run, split)))\n  const pairing = pairRunRecords(scoredBaseline, scoredCandidate)\n  const pairedBaseline = pairing.pairs.map((pair) => compositeOf(pair.baseline, split))\n  const pairedCandidate = pairing.pairs.map((pair) => compositeOf(pair.treatment, split))\n  if (pairedBaseline.length === 0) return undefined\n\n  const baselineMean = mean(pairedBaseline)\n  const candidateMean = mean(pairedCandidate)\n  const delta = candidateMean - baselineMean\n\n  const bootstrap = pairedBootstrap(pairedBaseline, pairedCandidate, {\n    confidence: 0.95,\n    resamples: 2000,\n    statistic: 'mean',\n  })\n  const tTest = pairedTTest(pairedBaseline, pairedCandidate)\n  const d = pairedCohensDz(pairedBaseline, pairedCandidate)\n  const mde = pairedMde({ nPaired: pairedBaseline.length, power: 0.8, alpha: 0.05 })\n  const requiredN =\n    d === null || d === 0\n      ? null\n      : requiredPairedSampleSize({\n          effect: Math.abs(d),\n          power: 0.8,\n          alpha: 0.05,\n        })\n\n  return {\n    baselineMean,\n    candidateMean,\n    delta,\n    ci95: [bootstrap.low, bootstrap.high],\n    pValue: tTest.p,\n    n: pairedBaseline.length,\n    minimumRequired: BOOTSTRAP_GATE_MIN_N,\n    decisionEligible: bootstrap.gateEligible,\n    unpairedBaseline: pairing.unpairedBaseline.length,\n    unpairedCandidate: pairing.unpairedTreatment.length,\n    cohensD: d,\n    mde,\n    requiredN,\n  }\n}\n\nfunction mean(arr: number[]): number {\n  return arr.length === 0 ? 0 : arr.reduce((s, v) => s + v, 0) / arr.length\n}\n\n// ── Failure clustering ──────────────────────────────────────────────\n\nasync function computeFailureClusters(\n  runs: RunRecord[],\n  analyst: AnalystRegistry,\n  split: 'search' | 'holdout',\n): Promise<FailureClusterInsight | undefined> {\n  const failed = runs.filter((run) => isTaskFailure(run, split))\n  if (failed.length === 0) return { clusters: [], totalFailures: 0 }\n\n  const clusters = new Map<string, { exemplars: string[]; share: number }>()\n  for (const run of failed) {\n    try {\n      // AnalystRunInputs routes by field name: run-record analysts read\n      // `runRecord`. Any other shape makes every analyst skip with\n      // \"missing input\" and the clusters come back silently empty.\n      const result = await analyst.run(run.runId, { runRecord: run })\n      for (const finding of result.findings as AnalystFinding[]) {\n        const key = finding.area || finding.analyst_id || 'unclassified'\n        const c = clusters.get(key) ?? { exemplars: [], share: 0 }\n        if (c.exemplars.length < 5) c.exemplars.push(run.runId)\n        clusters.set(key, c)\n      }\n    } catch {\n      const c = clusters.get('analyst-error') ?? { exemplars: [], share: 0 }\n      if (c.exemplars.length < 5) c.exemplars.push(run.runId)\n      clusters.set('analyst-error', c)\n    }\n  }\n  const clusterList = [...clusters.entries()].map(([id, c]) => ({\n    id,\n    name: id,\n    share: c.exemplars.length / failed.length,\n    exemplars: c.exemplars,\n  }))\n  clusterList.sort((a, b) => b.share - a.share)\n  return { clusters: clusterList, totalFailures: failed.length }\n}\n\nfunction finiteCompositeScores(runs: readonly RunRecord[], split: 'search' | 'holdout'): number[] {\n  return runs.map((run) => compositeOf(run, split)).filter(Number.isFinite)\n}\n\nfunction isTaskFailure(run: RunRecord, split: 'search' | 'holdout'): boolean {\n  if (run.failureClass !== undefined && run.failureClass !== 'success') return true\n  const score = compositeOf(run, split)\n  return Number.isFinite(score) && score < 0.5\n}\n\n// ── Contamination ──────────────────────────────────────────────────\n\nfunction computeContamination(\n  runs: RunRecord[],\n  canaries: DatasetScenario[],\n): InsightReport['contamination'] {\n  let leaks = 0\n  const details: Array<{ runId: string; canary: string; matched: string }> = []\n  for (const run of runs) {\n    const output = stringifyOutput(run)\n    if (!output) continue\n    const leaksHere = checkCanaries(output, canaries)\n    for (const leak of leaksHere) {\n      leaks++\n      details.push({ runId: run.runId, canary: leak.canary, matched: leak.evidence })\n    }\n  }\n  return { leaks, holdoutAuditPassed: leaks === 0, details }\n}\n\nfunction stringifyOutput(run: RunRecord): string | undefined {\n  // RunRecord doesn't fix where \"the agent's output\" lives — different\n  // consumers stash it differently. We probe the common shapes: the\n  // outcome.raw map (numeric only by design — unlikely to contain text),\n  // and any string-valued fields tucked under metadata via type casting.\n  // Consumers with bespoke shapes pass canaryScenarios only when they\n  // know their runs carry a stringifiable surface.\n  const metadata = (run as unknown as { metadata?: Record<string, unknown> }).metadata\n  if (typeof metadata?.output === 'string') return metadata.output\n  if (typeof metadata?.text === 'string') return metadata.text\n  return undefined\n}\n\n// ── Outcome correlation + linear reward model ──────────────────────\n\nfunction computeOutcomeCorrelation(\n  runs: RunRecord[],\n  outcome: { metric: string; valueByRunId: Record<string, number> },\n  split: 'search' | 'holdout',\n): OutcomeCorrelationInsight | undefined {\n  const xs: number[] = []\n  const ys: number[] = []\n  for (const run of runs) {\n    const y = outcome.valueByRunId[run.runId]\n    if (y === undefined || !Number.isFinite(y)) continue\n    const x = compositeOf(run, split)\n    if (!Number.isFinite(x)) continue\n    xs.push(x)\n    ys.push(y)\n  }\n  if (xs.length < 3) return undefined\n\n  const p = pearsonR(xs, ys)\n  const s = spearmanR(xs, ys)\n  const meanX = mean(xs)\n  const meanY = mean(ys)\n  let num = 0\n  let denom = 0\n  for (let i = 0; i < xs.length; i++) {\n    num += (xs[i]! - meanX) * (ys[i]! - meanY)\n    denom += (xs[i]! - meanX) ** 2\n  }\n  const slope = denom === 0 ? 0 : num / denom\n  const intercept = meanY - slope * meanX\n  const ssTot = ys.reduce((a, y) => a + (y - meanY) ** 2, 0)\n  const ssRes = ys.reduce((a, y, i) => a + (y - (intercept + slope * xs[i]!)) ** 2, 0)\n  const r2 = ssTot === 0 ? 0 : 1 - ssRes / ssTot\n\n  return {\n    metric: outcome.metric,\n    n: xs.length,\n    pearson: p,\n    spearman: s,\n    rewardModel: { intercept, slope, r2 },\n  }\n}\n\n// ── Release confidence scorecard ───────────────────────────────────\n\nfunction buildReleaseScorecard(\n  composite: ScalarDistribution,\n  lift: LiftInsight | undefined,\n  contamination: InsightReport['contamination'],\n): InsightReport['release'] {\n  // Synthesise a minimal scorecard from the rolled-up signal. The\n  // substrate's `evaluateReleaseConfidence` primitive consumes a richer\n  // input shape that callers can produce by wiring SLO definitions; the\n  // shape here is the contract `selfImprove`/`analyzeRuns` consumers\n  // receive automatically. They can call `evaluateReleaseConfidence`\n  // directly when they want SLO-based axis evaluation.\n  const axes: InsightReport['release']['axes'] = []\n  const liftPass =\n    lift === undefined\n      ? ('not_evaluated' as const)\n      : !lift.decisionEligible\n        ? ('not_evaluated' as const)\n        : lift.ci95[0] > 0 && !zeroWidth(lift.ci95)\n          ? ('pass' as const)\n          : lift.delta > 0\n            ? ('warn' as const)\n            : ('fail' as const)\n  axes.push({\n    name: 'quality-lift',\n    status: liftPass,\n    detail: lift\n      ? `delta=${lift.delta.toFixed(3)}, CI95=[${lift.ci95[0].toFixed(3)}, ${lift.ci95[1].toFixed(3)}], n=${lift.n}${lift.decisionEligible ? '' : ` (descriptive only; ${lift.minimumRequired} required)`}`\n      : 'no baseline/candidate pair available',\n  })\n  const contamPass =\n    contamination === undefined\n      ? ('not_evaluated' as const)\n      : contamination.leaks === 0\n        ? ('pass' as const)\n        : ('fail' as const)\n  axes.push({\n    name: 'contamination',\n    status: contamPass,\n    detail: contamination ? `${contamination.leaks} canary leak(s)` : 'no canaries supplied',\n  })\n  axes.push(\n    composite.n === 0\n      ? {\n          name: 'composite-distribution',\n          status: 'not_evaluated',\n          detail: 'no task-quality scores available',\n        }\n      : {\n          name: 'composite-distribution',\n          status:\n            composite.mean !== null && composite.mean >= 0.5\n              ? 'pass'\n              : composite.mean !== null && composite.mean >= 0.3\n                ? 'warn'\n                : 'fail',\n          detail:\n            composite.mean === null || composite.p50 === null || composite.p95 === null\n              ? 'task-quality distribution is internally incomplete'\n              : `mean=${composite.mean.toFixed(3)}, p50=${composite.p50.toFixed(3)}, p95=${composite.p95.toFixed(3)} over n=${composite.n}`,\n        },\n  )\n  const status = axes.some((a) => a.status === 'fail')\n    ? 'fail'\n    : axes.some((a) => a.status === 'warn' || a.status === 'not_evaluated')\n      ? 'warn'\n      : 'pass'\n  return {\n    status,\n    axes,\n    issues: [],\n  }\n}\n\n// ── Recommendations engine ─────────────────────────────────────────\n\ninterface RecommendationContext {\n  composite: ScalarDistribution\n  judges: Record<string, JudgeInsight>\n  interRater?: InterRaterInsight\n  lift?: LiftInsight\n  failureClusters?: FailureClusterInsight\n  failureClasses?: FailureClassTally[]\n  contamination?: InsightReport['contamination']\n  outcomeCorrelation?: OutcomeCorrelationInsight\n  priorPeriodComparison?: PriorPeriodComparison\n  threshold: number\n}\n\nfunction buildRecommendations(ctx: RecommendationContext): Recommendation[] {\n  const out: Recommendation[] = []\n\n  // Prior-period regressions — highest customer-impact signal when present.\n  // \"Did my last change help?\" with a falsifiable answer.\n  if (ctx.priorPeriodComparison) {\n    const ppc = ctx.priorPeriodComparison\n    const label = ppc.windowLabel ?? 'baseline period'\n    for (const name of ppc.regressedMetrics) {\n      const d = ppc.metrics[name]\n      if (d?.status !== 'ok') continue\n      out.push({\n        priority: 'critical',\n        kind: 'investigate',\n        title: `${name} regressed from ${d.baseline.toFixed(3)} → ${d.current.toFixed(3)} vs ${label}`,\n        detail: `Welch CI95 = [${d.ci95[0].toFixed(3)}, ${d.ci95[1].toFixed(3)}], p=${d.pValue.toFixed(4)}, Cohen's d=${d.cohensD.toFixed(2)} (n_current=${d.currentN}, n_baseline=${d.baselineN}). The regression is statistically significant at p<0.05 with at-least-small effect size.`,\n        evidencePath: `priorPeriodComparison.metrics.${name}`,\n      })\n    }\n    for (const name of ppc.improvedMetrics) {\n      const d = ppc.metrics[name]\n      if (d?.status !== 'ok') continue\n      out.push({\n        priority: 'low',\n        kind: 'ship',\n        title: `${name} improved from ${d.baseline.toFixed(3)} → ${d.current.toFixed(3)} vs ${label}`,\n        detail: `Welch CI95 = [${d.ci95[0].toFixed(3)}, ${d.ci95[1].toFixed(3)}], p=${d.pValue.toFixed(4)}, Cohen's d=${d.cohensD.toFixed(2)} (n_current=${d.currentN}, n_baseline=${d.baselineN}). Statistically significant improvement worth flagging.`,\n        evidencePath: `priorPeriodComparison.metrics.${name}`,\n      })\n    }\n    for (const name of ppc.inconclusiveMetrics) {\n      const d = ppc.metrics[name]\n      if (!d || d.status === 'ok' || d.delta === 0) continue\n      const reason =\n        d.status === 'zero-variance'\n          ? 'both periods have zero observed variance'\n          : 'one or both periods have fewer than two observations'\n      out.push({\n        priority: 'high',\n        kind: 'investigate',\n        title: `${name} changed from ${d.baseline.toFixed(3)} → ${d.current.toFixed(3)} vs ${label}; inference unavailable`,\n        detail: `Observed delta ${d.delta.toFixed(3)} across n_current=${d.currentN} and n_baseline=${d.baselineN}, but ${reason}. The report does not fabricate a p-value, confidence interval, or effect size; inspect independence and data capture before acting.`,\n        evidencePath: `priorPeriodComparison.metrics.${name}`,\n      })\n    }\n  }\n\n  // Composite-distribution branch. Fires when the overall quality signal is\n  // poor regardless of lift / contamination / clusters — the customer needs\n  // to know they have a problem AND which specific runs to inspect.\n  if (\n    ctx.composite.n > 0 &&\n    ctx.composite.mean !== null &&\n    ctx.composite.p50 !== null &&\n    ctx.composite.p95 !== null\n  ) {\n    if (ctx.composite.mean < 0.3) {\n      const tail = ctx.composite.tailRuns ?? []\n      const names = tail\n        .slice(0, 5)\n        .map((t) => `${t.runId}=${t.score.toFixed(3)}`)\n        .join(', ')\n      out.push({\n        priority: 'critical',\n        kind: 'investigate',\n        title: `Composite mean ${ctx.composite.mean.toFixed(3)} is below the 0.3 floor — the agent is broken on this corpus`,\n        detail:\n          tail.length > 0\n            ? `Worst ${tail.length} run${tail.length === 1 ? '' : 's'} to inspect first: ${names}. Histogram p50=${ctx.composite.p50.toFixed(3)}, p95=${ctx.composite.p95.toFixed(3)}.`\n            : `Histogram p50=${ctx.composite.p50.toFixed(3)}, p95=${ctx.composite.p95.toFixed(3)}.`,\n        evidencePath: 'composite.tailRuns',\n      })\n    } else if (ctx.composite.mean < 0.5) {\n      const tail = ctx.composite.tailRuns ?? []\n      const names = tail\n        .slice(0, 3)\n        .map((t) => `${t.runId}=${t.score.toFixed(3)}`)\n        .join(', ')\n      out.push({\n        priority: 'high',\n        kind: 'investigate',\n        title: `Composite mean ${ctx.composite.mean.toFixed(3)} is below 0.5 — investigate the lower tail before claiming the agent is healthy`,\n        detail:\n          tail.length > 0\n            ? `Worst ${tail.length} run${tail.length === 1 ? '' : 's'}: ${names}. Histogram p50=${ctx.composite.p50.toFixed(3)}, p95=${ctx.composite.p95.toFixed(3)}.`\n            : `Histogram p50=${ctx.composite.p50.toFixed(3)}, p95=${ctx.composite.p95.toFixed(3)}.`,\n        evidencePath: 'composite.tailRuns',\n      })\n    }\n  }\n\n  // A healthy-looking mean can hide a group of failed tasks sharing one\n  // producer-reported cause. This path does not require an analyst.\n  if (ctx.failureClasses && ctx.failureClasses.length > 0) {\n    const top = ctx.failureClasses[0]!\n    if (top.count >= 3 && top.share >= 0.15) {\n      out.push({\n        priority: top.share >= 0.25 ? 'high' : 'medium',\n        kind: 'investigate',\n        title: `'${top.failureClass}' is the dominant failure class — ${top.count} runs (${(top.share * 100).toFixed(0)}% of the corpus)`,\n        detail: `The mean composite can look acceptable while one failure class dominates the lower tail. ${top.count} of ${ctx.composite.n} runs failed with '${top.failureClass}'${ctx.failureClasses.length > 1 ? ` (next: '${ctx.failureClasses[1]!.failureClass}' ×${ctx.failureClasses[1]!.count})` : ''}. Fix this cause first.`,\n        evidencePath: 'failureClasses',\n      })\n    }\n  }\n\n  // Missing-judges branch. The report can't surface per-dimension or\n  // calibration signal when `outcome.judgeScores` is empty across the\n  // corpus. Tell the customer how to enrich.\n  if (Object.keys(ctx.judges).length === 0 && ctx.composite.n > 0) {\n    out.push({\n      priority: 'medium',\n      kind: 'expand-corpus',\n      title: 'No judge scores recorded — per-dimension + calibration insights unavailable',\n      detail:\n        'Records have no `outcome.judgeScores`. To unlock perDimension, judges, and calibration, attach a Judge run during your eval pass and populate `outcome.judgeScores.perJudge[judgeName][dimension] = score`. See `docs/insight-report.md` for the expected shape.',\n      evidencePath: 'judges',\n    })\n  }\n\n  if (ctx.lift) {\n    if (!ctx.lift.decisionEligible) {\n      out.push({\n        priority: 'high',\n        kind: 'expand-corpus',\n        title: `Inconclusive — ${ctx.lift.n} paired runs; ${ctx.lift.minimumRequired} required`,\n        detail: `The bootstrap interval is descriptive below ${ctx.lift.minimumRequired} paired observations and cannot support a ship decision.`,\n        evidencePath: 'lift',\n      })\n    } else {\n      const pairedEffect =\n        ctx.lift.cohensD === null ? 'undefined (zero delta variance)' : ctx.lift.cohensD.toFixed(2)\n      const pairedP =\n        ctx.lift.pValue === null ? 'undefined (zero delta variance)' : ctx.lift.pValue.toFixed(4)\n      const requiredRuns =\n        ctx.lift.requiredN === null ? 'not estimable' : `~${ctx.lift.requiredN} paired runs`\n      // A ZERO-WIDTH interval never reads as \"ship\": n identical paired deltas\n      // make every resample identical, so `[g, g]` clears any threshold below g\n      // and `[0, 0]` clears any negative `decisionThreshold`, on no spread at\n      // all. It falls through to the inconclusive/hold arms, which is where a\n      // sample carrying no information about its own error belongs.\n      const decisive = !zeroWidth(ctx.lift.ci95) && ctx.lift.ci95[0] > ctx.threshold\n      const inconclusive = ctx.lift.ci95[0] <= ctx.threshold && ctx.lift.ci95[1] > ctx.threshold\n      if (decisive) {\n        out.push({\n          priority: 'critical',\n          kind: 'ship',\n          title: `Ship — lift ${ctx.lift.delta.toFixed(3)} (95% CI ${ctx.lift.ci95[0].toFixed(3)}..${ctx.lift.ci95[1].toFixed(3)})`,\n          detail: `Holdout lift exceeds threshold ${ctx.threshold} with 95% bootstrap confidence (n=${ctx.lift.n}, p=${pairedP}, paired d=${pairedEffect}).`,\n          evidencePath: 'lift',\n        })\n      } else if (inconclusive) {\n        out.push({\n          priority: 'high',\n          kind: 'expand-corpus',\n          title: `Inconclusive — required sample is ${requiredRuns} (have ${ctx.lift.n}) at current effect size`,\n          detail: `CI straddles threshold. Current MDE at 80% power is ${ctx.lift.mde.toFixed(3)}; observed delta is ${ctx.lift.delta.toFixed(3)}.`,\n          evidencePath: 'lift',\n        })\n      } else {\n        out.push({\n          priority: 'critical',\n          kind: 'hold',\n          title: `Hold — lift CI lower bound ${ctx.lift.ci95[0].toFixed(3)} is at or below threshold ${ctx.threshold}`,\n          detail: `Bootstrap CI provides no statistical evidence the candidate is better. Consider tightening the mutation or expanding the holdout.`,\n          evidencePath: 'lift',\n        })\n      }\n    }\n  }\n\n  if (ctx.contamination && ctx.contamination.leaks > 0) {\n    out.push({\n      priority: 'critical',\n      kind: 'fix',\n      title: `${ctx.contamination.leaks} canary leak${ctx.contamination.leaks === 1 ? '' : 's'} detected`,\n      detail: `Holdout integrity is compromised. The lift number is unreliable until you investigate.`,\n      evidencePath: 'contamination',\n    })\n  }\n\n  if (ctx.interRater && ctx.interRater.kappa < 0.5) {\n    out.push({\n      priority: 'high',\n      kind: 'recalibrate',\n      title: `Inter-rater weighted kappa ${ctx.interRater.kappa.toFixed(2)} is below 0.5`,\n      detail:\n        'Raters disagree on what good looks like. Review the largest disagreement cases and refine the rubric before automating these decisions.',\n      evidencePath: 'interRater',\n    })\n  }\n\n  if (ctx.failureClusters && ctx.failureClusters.clusters.length > 0) {\n    const top = ctx.failureClusters.clusters[0]!\n    out.push({\n      priority: 'high',\n      kind: 'investigate',\n      title: `Top failure cluster: ${top.name} (${(top.share * 100).toFixed(0)}% of failures)`,\n      detail: `${ctx.failureClusters.totalFailures} runs failed. The largest cluster groups ${top.exemplars.length} exemplars under '${top.name}'.`,\n      evidencePath: 'failureClusters.clusters[0]',\n    })\n  }\n\n  if (ctx.outcomeCorrelation && Math.abs(ctx.outcomeCorrelation.spearman) < 0.3) {\n    out.push({\n      priority: 'medium',\n      kind: 'recalibrate',\n      title: `Judge scores decoupled from ${ctx.outcomeCorrelation.metric} (Spearman ρ=${ctx.outcomeCorrelation.spearman.toFixed(2)})`,\n      detail: `Your judges score what they were trained to score, but it isn't predicting downstream ${ctx.outcomeCorrelation.metric}. Consider retraining the judge against ${ctx.outcomeCorrelation.metric} as the gold signal.`,\n      evidencePath: 'outcomeCorrelation',\n    })\n  }\n\n  return out\n}\n\n// ── Re-export pareto figure spec for hosted-side rendering ─────────\n\nexport type { ParetoFigureSpec }\n","/**\n * Run one complete improvement job.\n *\n * A caller-owned `proposer` can generate candidates across local generations.\n * An external `method`, such as official GEPA or SkillOpt, owns its complete\n * search and returns one candidate. Both paths remeasure the selected candidate\n * against cases that candidate generation never receives.\n */\n\nimport type { ProposalFinding } from '../analyst/types'\nimport { defaultProductionGate } from '../campaign/gates/default-production-gate'\nimport { type PowerPreflight, powerPreflight } from '../campaign/gates/power-preflight'\nimport {\n  assertOptimizationResult,\n  type OptimizationMethod,\n  type OptimizationMethodProvenance,\n  type OptimizationMethodResult,\n} from '../campaign/presets/compare-optimization-methods'\nimport {\n  type RunImprovementLoopResult,\n  runImprovementLoop,\n} from '../campaign/presets/run-improvement-loop'\nimport type {\n  PremeasuredOptimizationBaseline,\n  RunOptimizationOptions,\n} from '../campaign/presets/run-optimization'\nimport {\n  emitLoopProvenance,\n  type LoopProvenanceRecord,\n  loopProvenanceArgsFromResult,\n} from '../campaign/provenance'\nimport { resolveRunDir } from '../campaign/run-dir'\nimport {\n  campaignCellExecutionEvidence,\n  campaignCellJudgeDimensions,\n  campaignCellTaskScore,\n  campaignCellToRunRecord,\n} from '../campaign/run-record'\nimport {\n  type CampaignStorage,\n  createRunCostLedger,\n  fsCampaignStorage,\n  inMemoryCampaignStorage,\n} from '../campaign/storage'\nimport { surfaceContentHash, surfaceHash } from '../campaign/surface-identity'\nimport type {\n  CampaignCellResult,\n  DispatchContext,\n  Gate,\n  JudgeConfig,\n  LabeledScenarioStore,\n  MutableSurface,\n  Scenario,\n  SurfaceProposer,\n} from '../campaign/types'\nimport type { CostLedgerHandle, CostLedgerSummary, CostReceipt } from '../cost-ledger'\nimport { ValidationError } from '../errors'\nimport { createHostedClient, type HostedTenant } from '../hosted/client'\nimport type { EvalRunCellScore, EvalRunEvent, EvalRunGenerationSnapshot } from '../hosted/types'\nimport { modelHasSnapshot, type RunRecord, type RunSplitTag } from '../run-record'\nimport { analyzeRuns } from './analyze-runs'\nimport type { InsightReport } from './insight-report'\n\nexport interface SelfImproveBudget {\n  /** Hard spend cap across the full run. Each paid call reserves its enforced\n   *  maximum before dispatch, so completed spend cannot cross this amount. */\n  dollars?: number\n  /** Proposer generations. Default: 3. External methods own their rounds and\n   *  require this value to be omitted or set to 1. Set 0 only for a\n   *  proposer-free baseline run. */\n  generations?: number\n  /** Candidates the proposer emits per generation. Default 2. */\n  populationSize?: number\n  /** Max concurrent cells across the loop. Default 2. */\n  maxConcurrency?: number\n  /** Candidate campaigns scored in parallel. Default 1. Total concurrent\n   *  cells are bounded by `candidateConcurrency * maxConcurrency`. */\n  candidateConcurrency?: number\n  /** Fraction of `scenarios` held out from training, used for the gate.\n   *  Default 0.25. Ignored when `holdoutScenarios` is set explicitly. */\n  holdoutFraction?: number\n  /** Fraction of the non-final cases reserved for method selection.\n   *  Default 0.25. Used only with `method` and ignored when\n   *  `selectionScenarios` is supplied explicitly. */\n  selectionFraction?: number\n  /** Explicit held-out scenarios; overrides `holdoutFraction`. */\n  holdoutScenarios?: Scenario[]\n  /** Holdout policy. Default `'measured'`: split, re-score baseline vs winner\n   *  on the held-out set, gate on that comparison. `'deferred'`: run the\n   *  improvement-set campaigns + search promotion, dispatch ZERO holdout cells,\n   *  force the gate to `'hold'`, return `lift: undefined`, and record\n   *  `holdout: 'deferred'` in the provenance record — for callers that measure\n   *  the held-out comparison in a separate later run instead of faking a\n   *  static holdout scenario and recording a meaningless lift. Unless\n   *  `holdoutScenarios` reserves an explicit set, ALL scenarios train. */\n  holdout?: 'measured' | 'deferred'\n  /** Per-scenario replicates per cell — raises bootstrap-CI tightness. Default 1. */\n  reps?: number\n  /** DEPTH dial forwarded to the proposer's `propose()` as\n   *  `ctx.maxImprovementShots` — max iterations an agentic candidate generator\n   *  may take per candidate (verify-in-session retries). Unset ⇒ the\n   *  proposer's own default. */\n  maxImprovementShots?: number\n}\n\nexport type SelfImproveProgressEvent =\n  | { kind: 'baseline.started'; scenarios: number }\n  | { kind: 'baseline.completed'; compositeMean: number; durationMs: number }\n  | { kind: 'generation.started'; index: number; populationSize: number }\n  | { kind: 'generation.completed'; index: number; bestComposite: number; durationMs: number }\n  // `lift` is absent when `budget.holdout === 'deferred'` — no held-out\n  // measurement ran, and the search-split delta must not masquerade as one.\n  | { kind: 'gate.decided'; decision: string; lift?: number }\n  | { kind: 'power.estimated'; n: number; sd: number; mde: number; underpowered: boolean }\n\nexport interface SelfImproveOptions<TScenario extends Scenario, TArtifact> {\n  /**\n   * Your agent — a function that takes the current `MutableSurface`\n   * (typically a system prompt the loop is optimizing) plus the\n   * scenario + cell ctx, and returns the artifact your judge scores.\n   *\n   * Same shape as `RunOptimizationOptions.dispatchWithSurface`. Wrap a\n   * plain `Dispatch` if you don't have a surface seam:\n   *\n   *   agent: (_surface, scenario, ctx) => yourPlainDispatch(scenario, ctx)\n   *\n   * That mode evaluates without mutating any surface — useful as a\n   * baseline-only run (set `budget.generations = 0`).\n   */\n  agent: (surface: MutableSurface, scenario: TScenario, ctx: DispatchContext) => Promise<TArtifact>\n\n  /**\n   * Snapshot-bearing model identity for agents that do not report a paid-call\n   * receipt through `ctx.cost.runPaidCall()`.\n   *\n   * Omit this when every cell reports its concrete model in a receipt.\n   */\n  model?: string\n\n  /** Scenarios to evaluate against. Train/holdout split is computed from\n   *  these unless `budget.holdoutScenarios` is set explicitly. */\n  scenarios: TScenario[]\n\n  /** Judge that scores artifacts. Bring your own; use `langchainJudge`\n   *  from `/adapters/langchain` for a Runnable-shaped one. */\n  judge: JudgeConfig<TArtifact, TScenario>\n\n  /** Starting surface — system prompt, JSON config, anything `MutableSurface`\n   *  accepts. The proposer mutates this each generation. */\n  baselineSurface: MutableSurface\n\n  /** Budget + loop shape. All fields optional. */\n  budget?: SelfImproveBudget\n\n  /**\n   * Complete prior measurement of `baselineSurface` over the TRAIN split.\n   * Forwarded to the loop body, which validates its surface hash, scenario\n   * split, seed (42), reps, and coverage, then skips the baseline search\n   * campaign entirely — no baseline dispatch, no resumability lookup. The\n   * train split is `scenarios` minus the holdout split, so premeasure with\n   * exactly that scenario set (explicit `budget.holdoutScenarios`, or\n   * `budget.holdout: 'deferred'` with no reserved set, makes the train split\n   * deterministic). Prior spend stays in the imported campaign aggregates and\n   * is not re-added to this run's cost ledger.\n   */\n  premeasuredBaseline?: PremeasuredOptimizationBaseline<TArtifact, TScenario>\n\n  /**\n   * Candidate generator for this local generation loop.\n   * Required when `budget.generations` is greater than zero.\n   */\n  proposer?: SurfaceProposer<ProposalFinding>\n\n  /**\n   * Complete optimization method, such as official GEPA or SkillOpt.\n   * The method receives disjoint train and selection cases and never receives\n   * the final comparison cases. Mutually exclusive with `proposer`.\n   */\n  method?: OptimizationMethod<TScenario, TArtifact>\n\n  /** Explicit method-selection cases. They must also appear in `scenarios`\n   *  and must not overlap the final comparison cases. */\n  selectionScenarios?: TScenario[]\n\n  /** Custom gate. Default is `defaultProductionGate` with\n   *  `deltaThreshold: 0.05` on the held-out split. */\n  gate?: Gate<TArtifact, TScenario>\n\n  /** Placebo control. When supplied AND the winner differs from baseline, the\n   *  loop scores a THIRD held-out arm: the winner surface with its content\n   *  footprint-matched-blanked by this fn (typically via `neutralizeText`). Its\n   *  scores reach the gate as `ctx.neutralizedJudgeScores`, letting a\n   *  `neutralizationGate` reject a win whose lift survives blanking the content\n   *  (decorative — driven by footprint, not content). Costs one extra held-out\n   *  campaign; omit to skip. Compose `neutralizationGate` into `gate` to act on it. */\n  neutralize?: (winnerSurface: MutableSurface, baselineSurface: MutableSurface) => MutableSurface\n\n  /** Storage backend. A filesystem run directory uses `fsCampaignStorage()`;\n   *  a `mem://` directory uses in-memory storage. External methods default to\n   *  a filesystem directory because their official state must survive. */\n  storage?: CampaignStorage\n\n  /** Run directory. Proposer mode defaults to\n   *  `mem://selfImprove-<timestamp>`. External method mode defaults to\n   *  `.agent-eval/runs/self-improve-<timestamp>`. */\n  runDir?: string\n\n  /** Fires once the durable provenance record + OTel spans are emitted.\n   *  Receives the structured record for inline assertions / custom routing. */\n  onProvenance?: (record: LoopProvenanceRecord) => void\n\n  /** Distributed execution seam — same as `RunCampaignOptions.cellPlacement`.\n   *  Returns an opaque placement key the substrate forwards to your agent\n   *  as `ctx.placement`. Combined with `httpDispatch` from\n   *  `/adapters/http`, fans cells across regions. */\n  cellPlacement?: (input: {\n    scenario: TScenario\n    rep: number\n    generation?: number\n  }) => string | undefined\n\n  /** Per-cell agent dispatch deadline, applied to baseline, candidate, and\n   *  held-out campaigns. Default 600_000 ms. Set 0 to disable. */\n  dispatchTimeoutMs?: number\n\n  /** Streaming hook — fires on baseline + each generation + gate decision.\n   *  Consumer routes events wherever (UI, dashboard, logs). */\n  onProgress?: (event: SelfImproveProgressEvent) => void\n\n  /** Auto-promotion behavior on a ship decision. Default `'none'` — we\n   *  return the winner; you ship it however you ship. `'pr'` opens a\n   *  GitHub PR via `openAutoPr`; requires `ghOwner` + `ghRepo`. */\n  autoOnPromote?: 'pr' | 'none'\n  ghOwner?: string\n  ghRepo?: string\n\n  /**\n   * Opt-in: ship eval-run events to a hosted orchestrator (ours, your\n   * self-hosted one, or any compatible implementation of the\n   * `docs/hosted-ingest-spec.md` wire format). When set, the substrate\n   * POSTs the final `EvalRunEvent` to `${endpoint}/v1/ingest/eval-runs`\n   * after the loop completes. Failures are logged but do not fail the\n   * loop — local result is always returned.\n   *\n   * For our orchestrator: `{ endpoint: 'https://orchestrator.tangle.tools/v1', apiKey, tenantId }`.\n   *\n   * For your self-hosted: any URL serving the wire format. See\n   * `examples/hosted-ingest-server/` for the reference receiver.\n   */\n  hostedTenant?: HostedTenant\n\n  /** Free-form labels attached to the hosted event (env, branch, model id,\n   *  etc.). Ignored when `hostedTenant` is unset. */\n  hostedLabels?: Record<string, string>\n\n  /** Capture every search artifact and judge score to this store.\n   *  The store is output only and is never exposed to candidate generation.\n   *  Pass `'off'` to disable. Default: off. */\n  labeledStore?: LabeledScenarioStore | 'off'\n\n  /** Capture-source tag for `labeledStore`. Default `'eval-run'`. */\n  captureSource?: 'production-trace' | 'eval-run' | 'manual' | 'red-team' | 'synthetic'\n\n  /**\n   * Per-cell backend-integrity expectation — the fail-loud guard. A cell that\n   * produced an artifact but reported `costUsd === 0` AND zero tokens is a\n   * stub. Modes: `'assert'` throws on the first such cell, `'warn'` logs it,\n   * `'off'` skips the check (offline/replay). Default `'assert'` — `selfImprove`\n   * is the real-run path, so a stub fails loud rather than scoring a clean 0.\n   */\n  expectUsage?: 'assert' | 'warn' | 'off'\n\n  /**\n   * Per-generation findings producer. Runs once on the baseline campaign (as\n   * `generation: -1`) before generation 0 proposes — so single-generation runs\n   * propose with trace context — and again after each generation is scored;\n   * whatever it returns REPLACES the proposer's `findings` for the next\n   * `propose()`. Plug a trace-analyst registry / HALO here. When absent,\n   * findings stay `opts.findings`.\n   */\n  analyzeGeneration?: RunOptimizationOptions<TScenario, TArtifact>['analyzeGeneration']\n\n  /** Static findings forwarded to the proposer's `propose()` as `ctx.findings`\n   *  (a findings-grounded proposer consumes them). Default: none. */\n  findings?: ProposalFinding[]\n\n  /** Override how the WINNER is selected among coverage-complete candidates.\n   *  Defaults to the scalar mean composite (historical behavior). A binary-with-\n   *  replicates consumer whose ship-gate counts an instance resolved only when\n   *  every replicate resolved passes a fail-closed lexicographic key here so that\n   *  winner-selection and the ship-gate rank on the identical metric and cannot\n   *  invert. See `RunOptimizationOptions.selectionRankKey`. */\n  selectionRankKey?: RunOptimizationOptions<TScenario, TArtifact>['selectionRankKey']\n}\n\nexport interface SelfImproveResult<TScenario extends Scenario, TArtifact> {\n  /** Composite mean across all scenarios, baseline run. When\n   *  `budget.holdout === 'deferred'` this is measured on the improvement\n   *  (search) split — no holdout campaign ran. */\n  baseline: {\n    compositeMean: number\n    perScenario: Record<string, number>\n  }\n  /** Composite mean on the held-out set, winner run. When\n   *  `budget.holdout === 'deferred'` this is the winner's improvement-set\n   *  (search) measurement — no holdout campaign ran. */\n  winner: {\n    compositeMean: number\n    perScenario: Record<string, number>\n    surface: MutableSurface\n    /** Proposer label for the promoted change. Absent ⇒ winner == baseline or\n     *  a bare-surface mutator. */\n    label?: string\n    /** Proposer rationale — the \"because Z\" that motivated the promoted change.\n     *  Threaded from the proposer's `ProposedCandidate` through the loop.\n     *  Absent ⇒ winner == baseline. */\n    rationale?: string\n  }\n  /** `winner.compositeMean - baselineOnHoldout.compositeMean`. Positive\n   *  means the gate observed improvement. Absent iff\n   *  `budget.holdout === 'deferred'` — no held-out measurement ran, so there\n   *  is no lift to report (never a fabricated 0). */\n  lift?: number\n  /** The explicit baseline→winner unified diff. Always present (empty string\n   *  when winner == baseline). */\n  diff: string\n  /** Durable, queryable provenance record: candidate→cell→gate→promote chain +\n   *  rationale + diff + backend provenance. The artifact the hosted ingest\n   *  path stores; the +lift RECOMPUTES from `record.heldOutLift`. */\n  provenance: LoopProvenanceRecord\n  /** `defaultProductionGate.decide()` result. */\n  gateDecision: 'ship' | 'hold' | 'need_more_work' | 'model_ceiling' | 'arch_ceiling'\n  /** Number of generations actually explored (may be less than the\n   *  budget if the proposer gave up early). */\n  generationsExplored: number\n  /** Wall-clock total. */\n  durationMs: number\n  /** Total newly observed cost across the full run. */\n  totalCostUsd: number\n  /** Canonical run-wide spend summary. */\n  cost: CostLedgerSummary\n  /** Run-wide receipts across proposal, search, holdout, judging, analysis,\n   *  and promotion work, with phase and actor attribution. */\n  receipts: CostReceipt[]\n  /** Exact external method and source identity, when `method` was used. */\n  optimization?: {\n    name: string\n    cost: OptimizationMethodResult['cost']\n    durationMs?: number\n    provenance?: OptimizationMethodProvenance\n  }\n  /**\n   * Rigor packet: distributional summary, paired-bootstrap lift CI,\n   * judge stats, contamination check, recommendations. Wired through\n   * `analyzeRuns()` on the baseline + winner cells of the campaign.\n   * Hosted-tier dashboards render this as the v3-vs-v4 decision view.\n   */\n  insight: InsightReport\n  /** Minimum-detectable-lift analysis from the baseline holdout cells: could this\n   *  budget have shipped ANY plausible effect? Absent when the baseline produced\n   *  fewer than 3 scored holdout cells. See `powerPreflight` for the standalone\n   *  pre-run version (run `gate: 'none'` first, budget the real search after). */\n  power?: PowerPreflight\n  /**\n   * Raw substrate result for advanced inspection — full per-generation\n   * candidates, full campaign artifacts, all judge scores. Useful for\n   * debugging or reporting beyond the summary.\n   */\n  raw: RunImprovementLoopResult<TArtifact, TScenario>\n}\n\n/** Failed self-improvement run with an immutable receipt snapshot. */\nexport class SelfImproveRunError extends Error {\n  readonly cost: CostLedgerSummary\n  readonly receipts: CostReceipt[]\n\n  constructor(cause: unknown, ledger: CostLedgerHandle) {\n    const original = cause instanceof Error ? cause : new Error(String(cause))\n    super(original.message, { cause: original })\n    this.name = 'SelfImproveRunError'\n    this.cost = ledger.summary()\n    this.receipts = ledger.list()\n  }\n}\n\nfunction assertSelfImproveSearchMode<TScenario extends Scenario, TArtifact>(\n  opts: SelfImproveOptions<TScenario, TArtifact>,\n): void {\n  if (opts.method && opts.proposer) {\n    throw new Error('selfImprove: method and proposer are mutually exclusive')\n  }\n  if (!opts.method) {\n    if (opts.selectionScenarios !== undefined) {\n      throw new Error('selfImprove: selectionScenarios requires method')\n    }\n    return\n  }\n  if (\n    typeof opts.method.name !== 'string' ||\n    !opts.method.name.trim() ||\n    opts.method.name.trim() !== opts.method.name ||\n    typeof opts.method.optimize !== 'function'\n  ) {\n    throw new Error('selfImprove: method must have a trimmed name and optimize(input)')\n  }\n  const budget = opts.budget\n  if (budget?.generations !== undefined && budget.generations !== 1) {\n    throw new Error('selfImprove: method owns its rounds; budget.generations must be 1 when set')\n  }\n  if (budget?.populationSize !== undefined && budget.populationSize !== 1) {\n    throw new Error(\n      'selfImprove: method owns its candidates; budget.populationSize must be 1 when set',\n    )\n  }\n  if (\n    budget?.candidateConcurrency !== undefined ||\n    budget?.maxImprovementShots !== undefined ||\n    opts.analyzeGeneration !== undefined ||\n    opts.findings !== undefined\n  ) {\n    throw new Error(\n      'selfImprove: candidateConcurrency, maxImprovementShots, analyzeGeneration, and findings apply only to proposer mode',\n    )\n  }\n}\n\nfunction splitMethodPartitions<TScenario extends Scenario>(\n  searchScenarios: TScenario[],\n  explicitSelection: TScenario[] | undefined,\n  fraction: number,\n): { train: TScenario[]; selection: TScenario[] } {\n  if (!Number.isFinite(fraction) || fraction <= 0 || fraction >= 1) {\n    throw new Error('selfImprove: budget.selectionFraction must be in (0, 1)')\n  }\n  const byId = new Map<string, TScenario>()\n  for (const scenario of searchScenarios) {\n    if (byId.has(scenario.id)) {\n      throw new Error(`selfImprove: duplicate scenario id '${scenario.id}'`)\n    }\n    byId.set(scenario.id, scenario)\n  }\n  if (explicitSelection) {\n    if (explicitSelection.length === 0) {\n      throw new Error('selfImprove: selectionScenarios must not be empty')\n    }\n    const selectionIds = new Set<string>()\n    for (const scenario of explicitSelection) {\n      if (!byId.has(scenario.id)) {\n        throw new Error(\n          `selfImprove: selection scenario '${scenario.id}' is absent from the non-final cases`,\n        )\n      }\n      if (selectionIds.has(scenario.id)) {\n        throw new Error(`selfImprove: duplicate selection scenario id '${scenario.id}'`)\n      }\n      selectionIds.add(scenario.id)\n    }\n    const train = searchScenarios.filter((scenario) => !selectionIds.has(scenario.id))\n    if (train.length === 0) {\n      throw new Error('selfImprove: method train split is empty')\n    }\n    return {\n      train,\n      selection: explicitSelection.map((scenario) => byId.get(scenario.id)!),\n    }\n  }\n  if (searchScenarios.length < 2) {\n    throw new Error('selfImprove: method requires at least two non-final scenarios')\n  }\n  const sorted = [...searchScenarios].sort(\n    (a, b) => stableScenarioHash(a.id) - stableScenarioHash(b.id),\n  )\n  const count = Math.max(1, Math.min(sorted.length - 1, Math.round(sorted.length * fraction)))\n  return {\n    selection: sorted.slice(0, count),\n    train: sorted.slice(count),\n  }\n}\n\nfunction safeRunComponent(value: string): string {\n  return value.replace(/[^a-zA-Z0-9._-]/g, '_')\n}\n\nfunction stableScenarioHash(value: string): number {\n  let hash = 2166136261 >>> 0\n  for (let index = 0; index < value.length; index++) {\n    hash ^= value.charCodeAt(index)\n    hash = Math.imul(hash, 16777619) >>> 0\n  }\n  return hash\n}\n\n/**\n * Deterministic train/holdout split by a stable hash of `scenario.id`,\n * so the same scenario set always splits the same way across runs.\n */\nfunction splitTrainHoldout<TScenario extends Scenario>(\n  scenarios: TScenario[],\n  fraction: number,\n): { train: TScenario[]; holdout: TScenario[] } {\n  const sorted = [...scenarios].sort((a, b) => stableScenarioHash(a.id) - stableScenarioHash(b.id))\n  const nHoldout = Math.max(1, Math.min(sorted.length - 1, Math.round(sorted.length * fraction)))\n  return {\n    holdout: sorted.slice(0, nHoldout),\n    train: sorted.slice(nHoldout),\n  }\n}\n\nfunction meanComposite(byScenario: Record<string, { meanComposite: number }>): {\n  compositeMean: number\n  perScenario: Record<string, number>\n} {\n  const perScenario: Record<string, number> = {}\n  const values: number[] = []\n  for (const [id, agg] of Object.entries(byScenario)) {\n    perScenario[id] = agg.meanComposite\n    values.push(agg.meanComposite)\n  }\n  return {\n    compositeMean: values.length === 0 ? 0 : values.reduce((s, v) => s + v, 0) / values.length,\n    perScenario,\n  }\n}\n\n/**\n * Latest search campaign measured for the winner surface; the baseline search\n * campaign when the winner IS the baseline. Used by the deferred-holdout\n * summary, where no holdout campaign exists to summarize.\n */\nfunction winnerSearchCampaign<TScenario extends Scenario, TArtifact>(\n  result: RunImprovementLoopResult<TArtifact, TScenario>,\n): RunImprovementLoopResult<TArtifact, TScenario>['baselineCampaign'] {\n  for (let i = result.generations.length - 1; i >= 0; i--) {\n    const measured = result.generations[i]?.surfaces.find(\n      (s) => s.surfaceHash === result.winnerSurfaceHash,\n    )\n    if (measured) return measured.campaign\n  }\n  return result.baselineCampaign\n}\n\n/**\n * One-shot self-improvement loop. See module docstring for defaults +\n * extension points.\n *\n * @example Minimum:\n *\n *   const result = await selfImprove({\n *     agent: (surface, scenario, ctx) => myAgent(surface, scenario, ctx.signal),\n *     scenarios,\n *     judge,\n *     baselineSurface: DEFAULT_PROMPT,\n *     proposer,\n *   })\n *   console.log(`lift: ${result.lift.toFixed(3)} (${result.gateDecision})`)\n *\n * @example Distributed (workers in three regions):\n *\n *   await selfImprove({\n *     agent: httpDispatch({ resolveUrl: ({ placement }) => REGION_URLS[placement!] }),\n *     scenarios,\n *     judge,\n *     baselineSurface: DEFAULT_PROMPT,\n *     cellPlacement: ({ scenario }) => scenario.region,\n *     budget: { maxConcurrency: 12 },\n *   })\n */\nexport async function selfImprove<TScenario extends Scenario, TArtifact>(\n  opts: SelfImproveOptions<TScenario, TArtifact>,\n): Promise<SelfImproveResult<TScenario, TArtifact>> {\n  const startedAt = Date.now()\n  const requestedRunDir =\n    opts.runDir ??\n    (opts.method ? `.agent-eval/runs/self-improve-${startedAt}` : `mem://selfImprove-${startedAt}`)\n  const runDir = resolveRunDir(requestedRunDir)\n  const storage =\n    opts.storage ?? (runDir.startsWith('mem://') ? inMemoryCampaignStorage() : fsCampaignStorage())\n  const costLedger = createRunCostLedger({\n    storage,\n    runDir,\n    costCeilingUsd: opts.budget?.dollars,\n  })\n  try {\n    return await runSelfImprove(opts, costLedger, startedAt, runDir, storage)\n  } catch (error) {\n    throw new SelfImproveRunError(error, costLedger)\n  }\n}\n\nasync function runSelfImprove<TScenario extends Scenario, TArtifact>(\n  opts: SelfImproveOptions<TScenario, TArtifact>,\n  costLedger: CostLedgerHandle,\n  startedAt: number,\n  runDir: string,\n  storage: CampaignStorage,\n): Promise<SelfImproveResult<TScenario, TArtifact>> {\n  const budget = opts.budget ?? {}\n  assertSelfImproveSearchMode(opts)\n  const generations = opts.method ? 1 : (budget.generations ?? 3)\n  const populationSize = opts.method ? 1 : (budget.populationSize ?? 2)\n  const maxConcurrency = budget.maxConcurrency ?? 2\n  const holdoutFraction = budget.holdoutFraction ?? 0.25\n  const holdoutMode = budget.holdout ?? 'measured'\n  const holdoutDeferred = holdoutMode === 'deferred'\n  const expectUsage = opts.expectUsage ?? 'assert'\n\n  // Deferred holdout without an explicitly reserved set trains on EVERYTHING:\n  // there is no held-out measurement in this run, so carving out a fraction\n  // would waste scenarios. An explicit `holdoutScenarios` set stays reserved\n  // (excluded from training) even when deferred, for the later measured run.\n  const explicitHoldout = budget.holdoutScenarios\n  const { train, holdout } = explicitHoldout\n    ? {\n        train: opts.scenarios.filter((s) => !explicitHoldout.some((h) => h.id === s.id)),\n        holdout: explicitHoldout as TScenario[],\n      }\n    : holdoutDeferred\n      ? { train: opts.scenarios, holdout: [] as TScenario[] }\n      : splitTrainHoldout(opts.scenarios, holdoutFraction)\n\n  if (train.length === 0) {\n    throw new Error(\n      'selfImprove: train split is empty. Reduce holdoutFraction or pass more scenarios.',\n    )\n  }\n  if (holdout.length === 0 && !holdoutDeferred) {\n    throw new Error('selfImprove: holdout split is empty. Pass more scenarios.')\n  }\n\n  if (generations > 0 && !opts.proposer && !opts.method) {\n    throw new Error(\n      'selfImprove: method or proposer is required when budget.generations is greater than zero',\n    )\n  }\n  let optimizationResult: OptimizationMethodResult | undefined\n  const methodPartitions = opts.method\n    ? splitMethodPartitions(train, opts.selectionScenarios, budget.selectionFraction ?? 0.25)\n    : undefined\n  const proposer: SurfaceProposer<ProposalFinding> = opts.method\n    ? {\n        kind: `method:${opts.method.name}`,\n        propose: async (context) => {\n          if (context.generation > 0) return []\n          const result = await opts.method!.optimize(\n            Object.freeze({\n              baselineSurface: structuredClone(context.currentSurface),\n              trainScenarios: Object.freeze(\n                methodPartitions!.train.map((scenario) => structuredClone(scenario)),\n              ),\n              selectionScenarios: Object.freeze(\n                methodPartitions!.selection.map((scenario) => structuredClone(scenario)),\n              ),\n              dispatchWithSurface: opts.agent,\n              judges: Object.freeze([opts.judge]),\n              runDir: `${runDir}/optimization/${safeRunComponent(opts.method!.name)}`,\n              seed: 42,\n              runOptions: Object.freeze({\n                storage,\n                maxConcurrency,\n                reps: budget.reps,\n                dispatchTimeoutMs: opts.dispatchTimeoutMs,\n                expectUsage,\n                costCeiling: budget.dollars,\n              }),\n              costLedger,\n            }),\n          )\n          assertOptimizationResult(opts.method!.name, result)\n          optimizationResult = structuredClone(result)\n          return [\n            {\n              surface: structuredClone(result.winnerSurface),\n              label: opts.method!.name,\n              rationale: `${opts.method!.name} selected this surface without final cases.`,\n            },\n          ]\n        },\n      }\n    : (opts.proposer ?? {\n        kind: 'baseline-only',\n        propose: async () => [],\n      })\n\n  const gate: Gate<TArtifact, TScenario> =\n    opts.gate ??\n    defaultProductionGate<TArtifact, TScenario>({\n      holdoutScenarios: holdout,\n      deltaThreshold: 0.05,\n    })\n\n  if (opts.onProgress) {\n    opts.onProgress({ kind: 'baseline.started', scenarios: opts.scenarios.length })\n  }\n\n  const result = await runImprovementLoop<TScenario, TArtifact>({\n    scenarios: train,\n    baselineSurface: opts.baselineSurface,\n    premeasuredBaseline: opts.premeasuredBaseline,\n    dispatchWithSurface: opts.agent,\n    proposer,\n    judges: [opts.judge],\n    populationSize,\n    maxGenerations: generations,\n    candidateConcurrency: budget.candidateConcurrency,\n    reps: budget.reps,\n    maxImprovementShots: budget.maxImprovementShots,\n    holdoutScenarios: holdout,\n    holdout: holdoutMode,\n    gate,\n    neutralize: opts.neutralize,\n    autoOnPromote: opts.autoOnPromote ?? 'none',\n    ghOwner: opts.ghOwner,\n    ghRepo: opts.ghRepo,\n    storage,\n    runDir,\n    maxConcurrency,\n    cellPlacement: opts.cellPlacement,\n    dispatchTimeoutMs: opts.dispatchTimeoutMs,\n    costLedger,\n    expectUsage,\n    labeledStore: opts.labeledStore,\n    captureSource: opts.captureSource,\n    analyzeGeneration: opts.analyzeGeneration,\n    findings: opts.findings,\n    selectionRankKey: opts.selectionRankKey,\n  })\n\n  // Deferred holdout ran zero holdout cells, so the summary stats come from\n  // the improvement-set (search) campaigns — labeled as such on the result\n  // type — and `lift` is omitted rather than fabricated from empty campaigns.\n  const reportSplit: RunSplitTag = holdoutDeferred ? 'search' : 'holdout'\n  const reportBaselineCampaign = holdoutDeferred\n    ? result.baselineCampaign\n    : result.baselineOnHoldout\n  const reportWinnerCampaign = holdoutDeferred\n    ? winnerSearchCampaign(result)\n    : result.winnerOnHoldout\n  const baseline = meanComposite(reportBaselineCampaign.aggregates.byScenario)\n  const winnerStats = meanComposite(reportWinnerCampaign.aggregates.byScenario)\n\n  // Power analysis from the baseline holdout cells — the number that says whether\n  // this budget could ship ANY effect. Attached to every result; loud when the\n  // search was structurally unable to promote (that spend should not repeat).\n  let power: PowerPreflight | undefined\n  const baselineHoldoutComposites = result.baselineOnHoldout.cells\n    .filter((cell) => !cell.error)\n    .map((cell) => {\n      const scores = Object.values(cell.judgeScores)\n      return scores.length === 0\n        ? Number.NaN\n        : scores.reduce((sum, s) => sum + s.composite, 0) / scores.length\n    })\n    .filter((v) => Number.isFinite(v))\n  if (baselineHoldoutComposites.length >= 3) {\n    // selfImprove's holdout is scored by the SAME judge as the gate — the\n    // shared-channel case by construction (S1c): flag it so the MDE reads as a\n    // lower bound and nobody buys reps expecting them to fix judge bias.\n    power = powerPreflight({\n      baselineComposites: baselineHoldoutComposites,\n      sharedScorerChannel: true,\n    })\n    if (opts.onProgress) {\n      opts.onProgress({\n        kind: 'power.estimated',\n        n: power.n,\n        sd: power.sd,\n        mde: power.mde,\n        underpowered: power.underpowered,\n      })\n    }\n    if (power.underpowered && generations > 0) {\n      console.warn(`[selfImprove] ${power.recommendation}`)\n    }\n  }\n\n  if (opts.onProgress) {\n    opts.onProgress({\n      kind: 'baseline.completed',\n      compositeMean: baseline.compositeMean,\n      durationMs: Date.now() - startedAt,\n    })\n    opts.onProgress({\n      kind: 'gate.decided',\n      decision: result.gateResult.decision,\n      // Deferred holdout has no held-out measurement: in that mode the summary\n      // stats are search-split numbers, and emitting their delta as `lift`\n      // would misreport a train-split delta as a held-out one. Omit instead.\n      ...(holdoutDeferred ? {} : { lift: winnerStats.compositeMean - baseline.compositeMean }),\n    })\n  }\n\n  const cost = result.cost\n  const totalCost = cost.totalCostUsd\n\n  // Rigor packet: feed baseline + winner cells through analyzeRuns().\n  // The two candidates (`baseline` / `winner`) give the lift section a\n  // clean paired comparison; per-judge / per-dimension / cost-quality\n  // sections populate from the cells' judgeScores.\n  const insight = await analyzeRuns({\n    runs: [\n      ...cellsToRunRecords(\n        reportBaselineCampaign.cells,\n        'baseline',\n        runDir,\n        opts.baselineSurface,\n        reportSplit,\n        opts.model,\n      ),\n      ...cellsToRunRecords(\n        reportWinnerCampaign.cells,\n        'winner',\n        runDir,\n        result.winnerSurface,\n        reportSplit,\n        opts.model,\n      ),\n    ],\n    baselineCandidateId: 'baseline',\n    candidateCandidateId: 'winner',\n  })\n\n  // ── Durable provenance: candidate→cell→gate→promote chain + rationale +\n  // diff + backend provenance. Always emitted; the +lift recomputes from it.\n  const durationMs = Date.now() - startedAt\n  const { record: provenance } = await emitLoopProvenance<TArtifact, TScenario>({\n    ...loopProvenanceArgsFromResult({\n      runId: `${runDir}#${startedAt}`,\n      runDir,\n      timestamp: new Date(startedAt).toISOString(),\n      baselineSurface: opts.baselineSurface,\n      result,\n      costReceipts: costLedger.list(),\n      totalCostUsd: totalCost,\n      totalDurationMs: durationMs,\n    }),\n    ...(optimizationResult\n      ? {\n          optimizationMethod: {\n            name: opts.method!.name,\n            cost: structuredClone(optimizationResult.cost),\n            ...(optimizationResult.durationMs === undefined\n              ? {}\n              : { durationMs: optimizationResult.durationMs }),\n            ...(optimizationResult.provenance === undefined\n              ? {}\n              : { provenance: structuredClone(optimizationResult.provenance) }),\n          },\n        }\n      : {}),\n    storage,\n    hostedClient: opts.hostedTenant ? createHostedClient(opts.hostedTenant) : undefined,\n  })\n  if (opts.onProvenance) opts.onProvenance(provenance)\n\n  const summary: SelfImproveResult<TScenario, TArtifact> = {\n    baseline,\n    winner: {\n      ...winnerStats,\n      surface: result.winnerSurface,\n      ...(result.winnerLabel ? { label: result.winnerLabel } : {}),\n      ...(result.winnerRationale ? { rationale: result.winnerRationale } : {}),\n    },\n    ...(holdoutDeferred ? {} : { lift: winnerStats.compositeMean - baseline.compositeMean }),\n    diff: result.promotedDiff,\n    provenance,\n    gateDecision: result.gateResult.decision,\n    generationsExplored: result.generations.length,\n    durationMs,\n    totalCostUsd: totalCost,\n    cost,\n    receipts: costLedger.list(),\n    ...(optimizationResult\n      ? {\n          optimization: {\n            name: opts.method!.name,\n            cost: structuredClone(optimizationResult.cost),\n            ...(optimizationResult.durationMs === undefined\n              ? {}\n              : { durationMs: optimizationResult.durationMs }),\n            ...(optimizationResult.provenance === undefined\n              ? {}\n              : { provenance: structuredClone(optimizationResult.provenance) }),\n          },\n        }\n      : {}),\n    insight,\n    ...(power ? { power } : {}),\n    raw: result,\n  }\n\n  // Opt-in hosted ingest. Failures are logged but never fail the loop: the\n  // local result is always returned.\n  if (opts.hostedTenant) {\n    try {\n      await shipEvalRunToHosted(opts.hostedTenant, opts, summary, result, runDir)\n    } catch (err) {\n      const msg = err instanceof Error ? err.message : String(err)\n      // eslint-disable-next-line no-console -- intentional: hosted-ingest is best-effort\n      console.warn(`[agent-eval] hosted ingest failed (continuing): ${msg}`)\n    }\n  }\n\n  return summary\n}\n\nasync function shipEvalRunToHosted<TScenario extends Scenario, TArtifact>(\n  tenant: HostedTenant,\n  opts: SelfImproveOptions<TScenario, TArtifact>,\n  summary: SelfImproveResult<TScenario, TArtifact>,\n  raw: RunImprovementLoopResult<TArtifact, TScenario>,\n  runDir: string,\n): Promise<void> {\n  const client = createHostedClient(tenant)\n\n  function snapshotFromCampaign(\n    index: number,\n    surface: MutableSurface,\n    campaign: RunImprovementLoopResult<TArtifact, TScenario>['baselineCampaign'],\n    durationMs: number,\n  ): EvalRunGenerationSnapshot {\n    const cells: EvalRunCellScore[] = campaign.cells.map((cell) => {\n      const execution = campaignCellExecutionEvidence(cell)\n      return {\n        scenarioId: cell.scenarioId,\n        rep: cell.rep,\n        compositeMean: campaignCellTaskScore(cell) ?? null,\n        dimensions: campaignCellJudgeDimensions(cell),\n        terminalOutcome: execution.terminalOutcome,\n        executionErrorCount: execution.executionErrorCount ?? null,\n        errorMessage: cell.error ?? undefined,\n      }\n    })\n    const scoredCells = cells.flatMap((cell) =>\n      cell.compositeMean === null ? [] : [cell.compositeMean],\n    )\n    const compositeMean =\n      scoredCells.length === 0\n        ? null\n        : scoredCells.reduce((sum, score) => sum + score, 0) / scoredCells.length\n    return {\n      index,\n      surfaceHash: surfaceHash(surface),\n      surface,\n      cells,\n      compositeMean,\n      costUsd: campaign.aggregates.cost.totalCostUsd,\n      durationMs,\n    }\n  }\n\n  const generations: EvalRunGenerationSnapshot[] = []\n  // Baseline as generation 0.\n  generations.push(snapshotFromCampaign(0, opts.baselineSurface, raw.baselineCampaign, 0))\n  // Improvement generations as 1..N. Substrate stores per-surface campaigns\n  // per generation — we summarize the WINNING surface per generation here.\n  for (const gen of raw.generations) {\n    const winner = gen.surfaces.reduce(\n      (best, s) =>\n        s.campaign.aggregates.cellsExecuted > 0 &&\n        (best === undefined || averageComposite(s.campaign) > averageComposite(best.campaign))\n          ? s\n          : best,\n      gen.surfaces[0],\n    )\n    if (!winner) continue\n    generations.push(\n      snapshotFromCampaign(gen.record.generationIndex + 1, winner.surface, winner.campaign, 0),\n    )\n  }\n\n  const event: EvalRunEvent = {\n    runId: `${runDir}#${Date.now()}`,\n    runDir,\n    timestamp: new Date().toISOString(),\n    status: 'finished',\n    labels: opts.hostedLabels ?? {},\n    baseline: generations[0],\n    generations,\n    gateDecision: summary.gateDecision,\n    holdoutLift: summary.lift,\n    totalCostUsd: summary.totalCostUsd,\n    totalDurationMs: summary.durationMs,\n    insightReport: summary.insight,\n  }\n\n  await client.ingestEvalRun(event)\n}\n\nfunction averageComposite(\n  campaign: RunImprovementLoopResult<unknown, Scenario>['baselineCampaign'],\n): number {\n  const aggs = Object.values(campaign.aggregates.byScenario)\n  return aggs.length === 0 ? 0 : aggs.reduce((s, a) => s + a.meanComposite, 0) / aggs.length\n}\n\nfunction hashString(s: string): string {\n  let h = 2166136261 >>> 0\n  for (let i = 0; i < s.length; i++) {\n    h ^= s.charCodeAt(i)\n    h = Math.imul(h, 16777619) >>> 0\n  }\n  return h.toString(16).padStart(8, '0')\n}\n\n/**\n * Adapt campaign cells into the `RunRecord` shape `analyzeRuns()` consumes.\n * Each cell becomes one run; `candidateId` is the caller-supplied label so\n * baseline + winner pair cleanly on `(experimentId, scenarioId, seed)`.\n *\n * `promptHash` is the REAL sha256 content hash of the surface this cell ran\n * (baseline vs winner are byte-distinguishable + byte-identical-verifiable);\n * `configHash` is the sha256 of the candidate label so the two candidates'\n * config rows differ. Both were previously the literal `'sha256:cell'`, which\n * made baseline and winner indistinguishable in every downstream record.\n */\nfunction cellsToRunRecords<TArtifact>(\n  cells: ReadonlyArray<CampaignCellResult<TArtifact>>,\n  candidateId: 'baseline' | 'winner',\n  runId: string,\n  surface: MutableSurface,\n  splitTag: RunSplitTag,\n  fallbackModel?: string,\n): RunRecord[] {\n  const promptHash = surfaceContentHash(surface)\n  const configHash = surfaceContentHash(candidateId)\n  return cells.map((cell) => {\n    const receiptModels = cell.resolvedModels ?? (cell.resolvedModel ? [cell.resolvedModel] : [])\n    if (receiptModels.length > 1) {\n      throw new ValidationError(\n        `selfImprove cell ${cell.cellId} used multiple agent models: ${receiptModels.join(', ')}`,\n      )\n    }\n    const model = receiptModels[0] ?? fallbackModel\n    if (!model) {\n      throw new ValidationError(\n        `selfImprove.model is required when cell ${cell.cellId} has no paid-call model receipt`,\n      )\n    }\n    if (!modelHasSnapshot(model)) {\n      throw new ValidationError(\n        `selfImprove model \"${model}\" lacks a snapshot version for cell ${cell.cellId}`,\n      )\n    }\n    return campaignCellToRunRecord(cell, {\n      runId: `${runId}::${candidateId}::${cell.cellId}`,\n      experimentId: runId,\n      candidateId,\n      // scenarioId is explicit; seed keeps repeated runs distinct.\n      seed:\n        cell.rep * 1_000_000 +\n        hashString(cell.scenarioId)\n          .slice(0, 6)\n          .split('')\n          .reduce((a, c) => (a * 31 + c.charCodeAt(0)) >>> 0, 0),\n      model,\n      promptHash,\n      configHash,\n      commitSha: 'cell',\n      splitTag,\n    })\n  })\n}\n","import type { RunEvalOptions } from '../campaign/presets/run-eval'\nimport { runEval } from '../campaign/presets/run-eval'\nimport { inMemoryCampaignStorage } from '../campaign/storage'\nimport type {\n  CampaignResult,\n  DispatchContext,\n  JudgeConfig,\n  MutableSurface,\n  Scenario,\n} from '../campaign/types'\nimport type { HostedTenant } from '../hosted/client'\nimport {\n  type SelfImproveBudget,\n  type SelfImproveOptions,\n  type SelfImproveResult,\n  selfImprove,\n} from './self-improve'\n\nexport type AgentEvalAgent<TScenario extends Scenario, TArtifact> = (\n  surface: MutableSurface,\n  scenario: TScenario,\n  ctx: DispatchContext,\n) => Promise<TArtifact>\n\nexport type DefineAgentEvalOptions<TScenario extends Scenario, TArtifact> = SelfImproveOptions<\n  TScenario,\n  TArtifact\n>\n\nexport interface AgentEvalEvaluateOptions<TScenario extends Scenario, TArtifact>\n  extends Omit<\n    RunEvalOptions<TScenario, TArtifact>,\n    'dispatch' | 'judges' | 'runDir' | 'scenarios'\n  > {\n  /** Scenario set to evaluate. Defaults to the scenarios passed to `defineAgentEval`. */\n  scenarios?: TScenario[]\n  /** Surface to evaluate. Defaults to the baseline surface passed to `defineAgentEval`. */\n  surface?: MutableSurface\n  /** Agent to evaluate. Defaults to the agent passed to `defineAgentEval`. */\n  agent?: AgentEvalAgent<TScenario, TArtifact>\n  /** Single judge override. Ignored when `judges` is set. */\n  judge?: JudgeConfig<TArtifact, TScenario>\n  /** Full judge list override. Defaults to the single judge passed to `defineAgentEval`. */\n  judges?: JudgeConfig<TArtifact, TScenario>[]\n  /** Logical or filesystem run directory. Defaults to an in-memory run. */\n  runDir?: string\n}\n\nexport type AgentEvalImproveOptions<TScenario extends Scenario, TArtifact> = Omit<\n  Partial<SelfImproveOptions<TScenario, TArtifact>>,\n  'budget' | 'hostedTenant'\n> & {\n  budget?: Partial<SelfImproveBudget>\n  hostedTenant?: Partial<HostedTenant>\n}\n\nexport interface DefinedAgentEval<TScenario extends Scenario, TArtifact> {\n  /** The default scenarios used by `evaluate()` and `improve()`. */\n  readonly scenarios: readonly TScenario[]\n  /** The default baseline surface used by `evaluate()` and `improve()`. */\n  readonly baselineSurface: MutableSurface\n  /**\n   * Run one scored evaluation. Use this for a baseline score or to score one\n   * candidate surface without running an improvement loop.\n   */\n  evaluate(\n    opts?: AgentEvalEvaluateOptions<TScenario, TArtifact>,\n  ): Promise<CampaignResult<TArtifact, TScenario>>\n  /**\n   * Run the closed improvement loop. Per-call overrides replace the definition\n   * except for nested config objects (`budget`, `hostedTenant`), which\n   * are merged field-by-field so callers can override one knob without\n   * repeating secrets or budget defaults.\n   */\n  improve(\n    opts?: AgentEvalImproveOptions<TScenario, TArtifact>,\n  ): Promise<SelfImproveResult<TScenario, TArtifact>>\n}\n\n/**\n * Define an agent eval once, then either score a surface with `evaluate()` or\n * run the closed loop with `improve()`.\n *\n * This is a DX wrapper only: it delegates to `runEval()` and `selfImprove()` and\n * returns their native result shapes.\n */\nexport function defineAgentEval<TScenario extends Scenario, TArtifact>(\n  defaults: DefineAgentEvalOptions<TScenario, TArtifact>,\n): DefinedAgentEval<TScenario, TArtifact> {\n  const defaultEvaluateOptions = evaluateDefaults(defaults)\n\n  return {\n    scenarios: defaults.scenarios,\n    baselineSurface: defaults.baselineSurface,\n\n    async evaluate(opts = {}) {\n      const { agent, judge, judges, runDir, scenarios, surface, ...campaignOpts } = opts\n      const selectedAgent = agent ?? defaults.agent\n      const selectedSurface = surface ?? defaults.baselineSurface\n      const selectedRunDir = runDir ?? defaults.runDir ?? `mem://defineAgentEval-${Date.now()}`\n      const selectedStorage =\n        campaignOpts.storage ??\n        defaultEvaluateOptions.storage ??\n        (selectedRunDir.startsWith('mem://') ? inMemoryCampaignStorage() : undefined)\n      const evalOptions: RunEvalOptions<TScenario, TArtifact> = {\n        ...defaultEvaluateOptions,\n        ...campaignOpts,\n        ...(selectedStorage ? { storage: selectedStorage } : {}),\n        runDir: selectedRunDir,\n        scenarios: scenarios ?? defaults.scenarios,\n        dispatch: (scenario, ctx) => selectedAgent(selectedSurface, scenario, ctx),\n        judges: evaluateJudges(judges, judge ?? defaults.judge),\n      }\n      if (evalOptions.reps !== undefined)\n        evalOptions.reps = requirePositiveInteger(evalOptions.reps, 'reps')\n      return runEval<TScenario, TArtifact>(evalOptions)\n    },\n\n    async improve(opts = {}) {\n      const {\n        budget: budgetOverride,\n        hostedTenant: hostedTenantOverride,\n        ...topLevelOverrides\n      } = opts\n      const merged = mergeDefined(defaults, topLevelOverrides)\n      const budget = mergeBudget(defaults.budget, budgetOverride)\n      const hostedTenant = mergeHostedTenant(defaults.hostedTenant, hostedTenantOverride)\n      return selfImprove<TScenario, TArtifact>({\n        ...merged,\n        ...(budget ? { budget } : {}),\n        ...(hostedTenant ? { hostedTenant } : {}),\n      })\n    },\n  }\n}\n\ntype SharedEvaluateDefaults<TScenario extends Scenario, TArtifact> = Omit<\n  RunEvalOptions<TScenario, TArtifact>,\n  'dispatch' | 'judges' | 'runDir' | 'scenarios'\n>\n\nfunction evaluateDefaults<TScenario extends Scenario, TArtifact>(\n  defaults: DefineAgentEvalOptions<TScenario, TArtifact>,\n): SharedEvaluateDefaults<TScenario, TArtifact> {\n  const out: SharedEvaluateDefaults<TScenario, TArtifact> = {}\n  if (defaults.storage) out.storage = defaults.storage\n  if (defaults.labeledStore) out.labeledStore = defaults.labeledStore\n  if (defaults.captureSource) out.captureSource = defaults.captureSource\n  if (defaults.cellPlacement) out.cellPlacement = defaults.cellPlacement\n  if (defaults.expectUsage) out.expectUsage = defaults.expectUsage\n  if (defaults.budget?.dollars !== undefined) out.costCeiling = defaults.budget.dollars\n  if (defaults.budget?.maxConcurrency !== undefined)\n    out.maxConcurrency = defaults.budget.maxConcurrency\n  if (defaults.budget?.reps !== undefined)\n    out.reps = requirePositiveInteger(defaults.budget.reps, 'budget.reps')\n  return out\n}\n\nfunction mergeBudget(\n  defaults: SelfImproveBudget | undefined,\n  overrides: Partial<SelfImproveBudget> | undefined,\n): SelfImproveBudget | undefined {\n  const merged = mergeOptionalObject(defaults, overrides)\n  if (merged?.reps !== undefined) merged.reps = requirePositiveInteger(merged.reps, 'budget.reps')\n  return merged\n}\n\nfunction mergeHostedTenant(\n  defaults: HostedTenant | undefined,\n  overrides: Partial<HostedTenant> | undefined,\n): HostedTenant | undefined {\n  const merged = mergeOptionalObject(defaults, overrides)\n  if (!merged) return undefined\n  if (!merged.endpoint?.trim() || !merged.apiKey?.trim() || !merged.tenantId?.trim()) {\n    throw new Error(\n      'defineAgentEval.improve: hostedTenant requires endpoint, apiKey, and tenantId after merging defaults and overrides',\n    )\n  }\n  return merged\n}\n\nfunction mergeDefined<T extends object>(defaults: T, overrides: Partial<T> | undefined): T {\n  if (!overrides) return defaults\n  const merged = { ...defaults } as Record<string, unknown>\n  for (const [key, value] of Object.entries(overrides)) {\n    if (value !== undefined) merged[key] = value\n  }\n  return merged as T\n}\n\nfunction mergeOptionalObject<T extends object>(\n  defaults: T | undefined,\n  overrides: Partial<T> | undefined,\n): T | undefined {\n  if (!defaults && !overrides) return undefined\n  return mergeDefined(defaults ?? ({} as T), overrides)\n}\n\nfunction evaluateJudges<TArtifact, TScenario extends Scenario>(\n  judges: JudgeConfig<TArtifact, TScenario>[] | undefined,\n  defaultJudge: JudgeConfig<TArtifact, TScenario>,\n): JudgeConfig<TArtifact, TScenario>[] {\n  if (judges !== undefined) {\n    if (judges.length === 0) {\n      throw new Error('defineAgentEval.evaluate: judges must not be empty')\n    }\n    return judges\n  }\n  return [defaultJudge]\n}\n\nfunction requirePositiveInteger(value: number, field: string): number {\n  if (!Number.isInteger(value) || value < 1) {\n    throw new Error(`defineAgentEval: ${field} must be a positive integer`)\n  }\n  return 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