@tangle-network/agent-eval 0.140.1 → 0.141.0

package/dist/cli.js

@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
 #!/usr/bin/env node
 import { o as runRolloutReleaseCli } from "./hf-dataset-XggBupCr.js";
-import { n as runAnalystBenchmarkCommand } from "./benchmark-command-Bo_hkhQf.js";
+import { n as runAnalystBenchmarkCommand } from "./benchmark-command-D8xXNVVh.js";
 import { a as runRpcBatch, o as runRpcOnce, p as handleVersion, r as startServerAsync, s as buildOpenApi } from "./server-Cu4M3NSO.js";
 import { writeFileSync } from "node:fs";
 //#region src/cli-config.ts

package/dist/contract/index.d.ts.map

@@ -1 +1 @@
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+{"version":3,"file":"index.d.ts","names":[],"sources":["../../src/contract/self-improve.ts","../../src/contract/define-agent-eval.ts","../../src/contract/measured-comparison.ts","../../src/contract/profile-measured-comparison.ts","../../src/contract/intake/run-record-dir.ts","../../src/contract/eval-reporting-suite.ts","../../src/contract/diff.ts","../../src/contract/intake/agent-trace.ts","../../src/contract/intake/code-agent-observation.ts","../../src/contract/intake/code-agent-session.ts","../../src/contract/intake/feedback-table.ts","../../src/contract/intake/otel-spans.ts"],"mappings":";;;;;;;;;;;;;UA+DiB;;;EAGf;;;;EAIA;;EAEA;;EAEA;;;EAGA;;;EAGA;;;;EAIA;;EAEA,mBAAmB;;;;;;;;;EASnB;;EAEA;;;;;EAKA;;KAGU;EACN;EAA0B;;EAC1B;EAA4B;EAAuB;;EACnD;EAA4B;EAAe;;EAC3C;EAA8B;EAAe;EAAuB;;EAGpE;EAAsB;EAAkB;;EACxC;EAAyB;EAAW;EAAY;EAAa;;UAElD,mBAAmB,kBAAkB,UAAU;;;;;;;;;;;;;;EAc9D,QAAQ,SAAS,gBAAgB,UAAU,WAAW,KAAK,oBAAoB,QAAQ;;;;;;;EAQvF;;;EAIA,WAAW;;;EAIX,OAAO,YAAY,WAAW;;;EAI9B,iBAAiB;;EAGjB,SAAS;;;;;;;;;;;;EAaT,sBAAsB,gCAAgC,WAAW;;;;;EAMjE,WAAW,gBAAgB;;;;;;EAO3B,SAAS,mBAAmB,WAAW;;;EAIvC,qBAAqB;;;EAIrB,OAAO,KAAK,WAAW;;;;;;;;EASvB,cAAc,eAAe,gBAAgB,iBAAiB,mBAAmB;;;;EAKjF,UAAU;;;;EAKV;;;EAIA,gBAAgB,QAAQ;;;;;EAMxB,iBAAiB;IACf,UAAU;IACV;IACA;;;;EAKF;;;EAIA,cAAc,OAAO;;;;EAKrB;EACA;EACA;;;;;;;;;;;;;;EAeA,eAAe;;;EAIf,eAAe;;;;EAKf,eAAe;;EAGf;;;;;;;;EASA;;;;;;;;;EAUA,oBAAoB,uBAAuB,WAAW;;;EAItD,WAAW;;;;;;;EAQX,mBAAmB,uBAAuB,WAAW;;UAGtC,kBAAkB,kBAAkB,UAAU;;;;EAI7D;IACE;IACA,aAAa;;;;;EAKf;IACE;IACA,aAAa;IACb,SAAS;;;IAGT;;;;IAIA;;;;;;EAMF;;;EAGA;;;;EAIA,YAAY;;EAEZ;;;EAGA;;EAEA;;EAEA;;EAEA,MAAM;;;EAGN,UAAU;;EAEV;IACE;IACA,MAAM;IACN;IACA,aAAa;;;;;;;;EAQf,SAAS;;;;;EAKT,QAAQ;;;;;;EAMR,KAAK,yBAAyB,WAAW;;;cAI9B,4BAA4B;WAC9B,MAAM;WACN,UAAU;EAEnB,YAAY,gBAAgB,QAAQ;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;iBA+LhB,YAAY,kBAAkB,UAAU,WAC5D,MAAM,mBAAmB,WAAW,aACnC,QAAQ,kBAAkB,WAAW;;;KCviB5B,eAAe,kBAAkB,UAAU,cACrD,SAAS,gBACT,UAAU,WACV,KAAK,oBACF,QAAQ;KAED,uBAAuB,kBAAkB,UAAU,aAAa,mBAC1E,WACA;UAGe,yBAAyB,kBAAkB,UAAU,mBAC5D,KACN,eAAe,WAAW;;EAI5B,YAAY;;EAEZ,UAAU;;EAEV,QAAQ,eAAe,WAAW;;EAElC,QAAQ,YAAY,WAAW;;EAE/B,SAAS,YAAY,WAAW;;EAEhC;;KAGU,wBAAwB,kBAAkB,UAAU,aAAa,KAC3E,QAAQ,mBAAmB,WAAW;EAGtC,SAAS,QAAQ;EACjB,eAAe,QAAQ;;UAGR,iBAAiB,kBAAkB,UAAU;;WAEnD,oBAAoB;;WAEpB,iBAAiB;;;;;EAK1B,SACE,OAAO,yBAAyB,WAAW,aAC1C,QAAQ,eAAe,WAAW;;;;;;;EAOrC,QACE,OAAO,wBAAwB,WAAW,aACzC,QAAQ,kBAAkB,WAAW;;;;;;;;;iBAU1B,gBAAgB,kBAAkB,UAAU,WAC1D,UAAU,uBAAuB,WAAW,aAC3C,iBAAiB,WAAW;;;UCvDd;EACf,QAAQ,gCAAgC;EACxC;EACA;;UAGe;EACf,YAAY;EACZ;EACA,QAAQ;EACR,MAAM;EACN,eAAe;EACf;EACA,SAAS;;UAGM;EACf,YAAY;EACZ,QAAQ,OAAO,oCAAoC,QAAQ;;EAE3D;;EAEA,aAAa;EACb,SAAS;;UAGM;EACf,cAAc;EACd;IACE;IACA,MAAM;;;UAIO;EACf,YAAY;EACZ,cAAc;EACd;IACE;IACA,MAAM;;EAER,aAAa;EACb;EACA,YAAY;EACZ;EACA,WAAW;;;UAII,kBAAkB;EACjC;EACA,UAAU;EACV,WAAW;;;UAII,yBAAyB;EACxC,MAAM,KAAK;EACX,WAAW,KAAK;IAAkB;IAAc;;EAChD,QAAQ,KAAK;EACb,eAAe,KAAK,OAAO;EAC3B,UAAU,KAAK;EACf,UAAU,KAAK;EACf,OAAO,KAAK;;UAGG,kCAAkC;EACjD,uBAAuB,kBAAkB;EACzC,QAAQ;EACR,SAAS,yBAAyB;;EAElC;;EAEA,kBAAkB;;EAElB,kBAAkB;;;KAIR,8BAA8B,KACxC;EAGA,iBAAiB;EACjB,WAAW;EACX;;;iBAIc,2BACd,UAAU,sCACT;;iBAQa,4BACd,SAAS,qCACR;;iBAiBa,wBACd,UAAU,mCACT;iBAQa,0BAA0B,iBAAiB;;iBAarC,uBACpB,SAAS,gCACR,QAAQ;;;;;;;;iBAkEK,2BAA2B,MACzC,SAAS,kCAAkC,QAC1C;;iBA8Ya,0CACd,SAAS,oCACR;;iBAuEa,oCACd,iBACC;iBAkHa,6BAA6B,iBAAiB;iBAM9C,oCACd,iBACC;iBAkBa,8BAA8B;;;;;;;;;;UC7zB7B;EACf,aAAa;EACb,QAAQ,gCAAgC;EACxC;EACA;;UAGe;EACf,YAAY;EACZ;EACA,aAAa;EACb,MAAM;EACN,SAAS;EACT;EACA,SAAS;;UAGM;EACf,YAAY;EACZ,QACE,OAAO,kDACN,QAAQ;;EAEX;;EAEA,aAAa;EACb,SAAS;;UAGM;EACf,cAAc;EACd;IACE;IACA,MAAM;;;UAIO;EACf,YAAY;EACZ,cAAc;EACd;IACE;IACA,MAAM;;EAER,aAAa;EACb;EACA,YAAY;EACZ;EACA,WAAW;;;iBAIG,gCACd,UAAU,sCACT;;iBAQa,iCACd,SAAS,0CACR;;iBAqBa,sCACd,UAAU,4CACT;iBAOa,kCAAkC,iBAAiB;iBAInD,yCACd,iBACC;iBAIa,wCACd,iBACC;;;;;;iBASmB,qCACpB,SAAS,8CACR,QAAQ;;iBA0CK,wDACd,SAAS,kDACR;;iBAuEa,kDACd,iBACC;;;;UCnPc;;EAEf;;EAEA;;EAEA;;UAGe;;;;;;EAMf;;;;;;;EAOA,WAAW;;;;;;EAMX;;UAGe;;EAEf,MAAM;;EAEN,UAAU;;EAEV;;;;;;;;;;iBAkBoB,iBACpB,cACA,UAAS,0BACR,QAAQ;;;;;KC7CC,0BAA0B;UAErB;;;;;EAKf,UAAU,KAAK;;EAEf,OAAO;;;;;;;;;;EAUP;;;;UAKe;;;EAGf,QAAQ;;EAER;;IAEE;;IAEA;;;IAGA;;IAEA;;;IAGA,UAAU;;;EAGZ;;;;;;;iBAUoB,mBACpB,OAAO,yBACP,UAAS,4BACR,QAAQ;;;;;;UC5DM;EACf;EACA;EACA;;;UAIe;EACf;EACA;EACA;EACA;EACA;;;EAGA,YAAY,eAAe,eAAe;;;;UAK3B;EACf;EACA;EACA;EACA;EACA;;EAEA,SAAS;;EAET,SAAS;;EAET,OAAO;;EAEP;EACA;EACA;EACA;EACA;EACA;EACA;EACA;EACA;;;;;UAMe;EACf;EACA;EACA;EACA;EACA,oBAAoB;EACpB,mBAAmB;EACnB;EACA;EACA;EACA;EACA;EACA;EACA;EACA;EACA;;EAEA,cAAc;;;;EAId,aAAa;;;;;;;;;iBAoDC,gBACd,QAAQ,2BACR,OAAO,4BACN;;;;;;iBAqEa,SAAS,QAAQ,cAAc,OAAO,eAAe;;;;;;;iBAsCrD,wBAAwB,KAAK,eAAe;;;KC1OhD;UAEK;EACf,MAAM;;EAEN;;UAGe;EACf;EACA;EACA;;;EAGA,cAAc;;UAGC;EACf;EACA,cAAc;EACd,QAAQ;;UAGO;EACf;EACA,eAAe;;UAGA;EACf;EACA;EACA;EACA;IAAQ;IAAc;;EACtB;IAAS;IAAe;;EACxB,OAAO;;;;UAOQ;EACf;;EAEA;;EAEA;EACA;EACA;;EAEA;;EAEA;;KAGU,kBAAkB,YAAY;;;;;;iBAW1B,gBAAgB,SAAS,qBAAqB;UAmE7C;;;;EAIf,SAAS,YAAY;;;EAGrB,cAAc;;;;;;;;iBASA,8BACd,MAAM,aACN,OAAO,kBACN;;;KCjLS;KAEA;KAEA;KAEA;KASA;UAEK;EACf;EACA;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package/dist/contract/index.js

@@ -1,16 +1,16 @@
 import { c as ValidationError } from "../errors-D-LKuDhb.js";
 import { i as estimateCost, o as isModelPriced } from "../metrics-C9YY1OcL.js";
 import { i as CostLedger } from "../cost-ledger-DMFxsLKr.js";
-import { C as createChatClient, t as buildDefaultAnalystRegistry } from "../default-registry-BOiBXNFh.js";
+import { C as createChatClient, t as buildDefaultAnalystRegistry } from "../default-registry-BupFSXSN.js";
 import { LLM_MODEL_ATTR_KEYS, SPAN_KIND_ATTR_KEYS } from "../trace-attributes.js";
-import { nt as classifyOtlpSpanRole, rt as isOtlpModelCall } from "../kind-factory-DB7nIs35.js";
+import { nt as classifyOtlpSpanRole, rt as isOtlpModelCall } from "../kind-factory-Bvwe3pup.js";
 import { s as makeProposalFinding } from "../usage-receipt-CgxMEBZq.js";
-import { i as inMemoryCampaignStorage, n as createRunCostLedger, r as fsCampaignStorage } from "../single-run-lock-CiQThJxB.js";
+import { i as inMemoryCampaignStorage, n as createRunCostLedger, r as fsCampaignStorage } from "../single-run-lock-BcvPQY57.js";
 import { m as mapConcurrentRange } from "../ledger-core-Dxz0Rkwa.js";
-import { A as assertOptimizationResult, B as surfaceHash, Dt as decidePairedPromotion, J as runCampaign, O as composeGate, S as defaultProductionGate, T as heldoutSignificance, Y as resolveRunDir, _ as buildEvidenceVector, a as emitLoopProvenance, at as createReferenceEquivalenceJudge, b as powerPreflight, d as runImprovementLoop, et as campaignSplitDigest, g as gepaOptimizationMethod, ht as llmJudge, it as REFERENCE_EQUIVALENCE_JUDGE_VERSION, j as compareOptimizationMethods, k as externalTextOptimizationMethod, o as loopProvenanceArgsFromResult, ot as runReferenceEquivalenceJudge, p as runEval, rt as REFERENCE_EQUIVALENCE_INPUT_LIMITS, t as skillOptOptimizationMethod, v as paretoPolicy, x as heldOutGate, y as paretoSignificanceGate, z as surfaceContentHash } from "../skillopt-optimization-method-CSBQ8Qma.js";
+import { A as assertOptimizationResult, B as surfaceHash, Dt as decidePairedPromotion, J as runCampaign, O as composeGate, S as defaultProductionGate, T as heldoutSignificance, Y as resolveRunDir, _ as buildEvidenceVector, a as emitLoopProvenance, at as createReferenceEquivalenceJudge, b as powerPreflight, d as runImprovementLoop, et as campaignSplitDigest, g as gepaOptimizationMethod, ht as llmJudge, it as REFERENCE_EQUIVALENCE_JUDGE_VERSION, j as compareOptimizationMethods, k as externalTextOptimizationMethod, o as loopProvenanceArgsFromResult, ot as runReferenceEquivalenceJudge, p as runEval, rt as REFERENCE_EQUIVALENCE_INPUT_LIMITS, t as skillOptOptimizationMethod, v as paretoPolicy, x as heldOutGate, y as paretoSignificanceGate, z as surfaceContentHash } from "../skillopt-optimization-method-DV6c4ooy.js";
 import { E as pairedBootstrap } from "../statistics-ByxzSiOM.js";
 import { i as parseRunRecordSafe, r as modelHasSnapshot } from "../run-record-vRgqWmJw.js";
-import { a as recordAggregateMeasurements, i as readTaskFailureLabels, o as summarizeExecutionMeasurements, s as summarizeTraceErrors, t as extractUsage } from "../extract-usage-C5vMw-0R.js";
+import { a as recordAggregateMeasurements, i as readTaskFailureLabels, o as summarizeExecutionMeasurements, s as summarizeTraceErrors, t as extractUsage } from "../extract-usage-7l1Xq5ti.js";
 import { n as summarizeExecution, t as analyzeRuns } from "../analyze-runs-BScZvqMV.js";
 import { a as campaignCellExecutionEvidence, c as campaignCellToRunRecord, o as campaignCellJudgeDimensions, s as campaignCellTaskScore } from "../reward-hacking-GyN0kMd8.js";
 import { n as InMemoryOutcomeStore, t as FileSystemOutcomeStore } from "../outcome-store-ChBKlTd_.js";
@@ -845,7 +845,9 @@ function evaluatePairedMeasurements(options) {
 	const measurementCostUsd = measurements.reduce((sum, measurement) => sum + measurement.baseline.costUsd + measurement.candidate.costUsd, 0);
 	const measurementWorkDurationMs = measurements.reduce((sum, measurement) => sum + measurement.baseline.latencyMs + measurement.candidate.latencyMs, 0);
 	const incompleteRuns = measurements.flatMap((measurement) => [measurement.baseline, measurement.candidate]).filter((run) => !run.completed);
-	const failedCandidateResults = measurements.filter((measurement) => !measurement.candidate.passed);
+	const regressedTasks = measurements.filter((measurement) => !measurement.candidate.passed && measurement.baseline.passed);
+	const sharedTaskFailures = measurements.filter((measurement) => !measurement.candidate.passed && !measurement.baseline.passed);
+	const repairedTasks = measurements.filter((measurement) => measurement.candidate.passed && !measurement.baseline.passed);
 	const derivedMeasurementCost = {
 		usd: measurementCostUsd,
 		provenance: measurements.every((measurement) => measurement.baseline.costProvenance === "observed" && measurement.candidate.costProvenance === "observed") ? "observed" : "estimated"
@@ -872,8 +874,8 @@ function evaluatePairedMeasurements(options) {
 			passed: incompleteRuns.length === 0
 		},
 		{
-			name: "candidate-task-pass",
-			passed: failedCandidateResults.length === 0
+			name: "no-task-regression",
+			passed: regressedTasks.length === 0
 		},
 		{
 			name: "critical-dimensions",
@@ -885,15 +887,16 @@ function evaluatePairedMeasurements(options) {
 		}
 	];
 	const shipped = checks.every((check) => check.passed);
-	const hardFailure = incompleteRuns.length > 0 || failedCandidateResults.length > 0 || regressions.length > 0 || missingCriticalDimensions.length > 0 || !budgetPassed;
+	const hardFailure = incompleteRuns.length > 0 || regressedTasks.length > 0 || regressions.length > 0 || missingCriticalDimensions.length > 0 || !budgetPassed;
 	const reasons = [
-		...significance.significant ? [] : [significance.fewRuns ? `only ${significance.n} paired runs; ${significance.minimumRequired} required` : `paired interval lower bound ${significance.bootstrap.low} did not clear ${deltaThreshold}`],
+		...significance.significant ? [] : [significanceReason(significance, deltaThreshold)],
 		...powerSufficient || significance.fewRuns ? [] : [power.reason],
 		...regressions.length === 0 ? [] : [`critical dimensions regressed: ${regressions.map((entry) => entry.name).join(", ")}`],
 		...missingCriticalDimensions.length === 0 ? [] : [`critical dimensions missing: ${missingCriticalDimensions.join(", ")}`],
 		...incompleteRuns.length === 0 ? [] : [`${incompleteRuns.length} benchmark executions did not exit successfully`],
-		...failedCandidateResults.length === 0 ? [] : [`candidate failed ${failedCandidateResults.length} benchmark tasks`],
-		...budgetPassed ? [] : [`total cost ${totalCost.usd} exceeded budget ${budgetUsd}`]
+		...regressedTasks.length === 0 ? [] : [`candidate regressed ${regressedTasks.length} benchmark ${regressedTasks.length === 1 ? "task" : "tasks"} the baseline passed: ` + regressedTasks.map((measurement) => measurement.cellId).join(", ")],
+		...budgetPassed ? [] : [`total cost ${totalCost.usd} exceeded budget ${budgetUsd}`],
+		...shipped || sharedTaskFailures.length === 0 ? [] : [`benchmark tasks: ${repairedTasks.length} repaired, ${regressedTasks.length} regressed, ${sharedTaskFailures.length} still failing that the baseline also failed`]
 	];
 	return {
 		overall: {
@@ -904,7 +907,7 @@ function evaluatePairedMeasurements(options) {
 		},
 		objectives,
 		decision: {
-			outcome: shipped ? "ship" : hardFailure ? "hold" : significance.fewRuns || !powerSufficient ? "need_more_work" : "hold",
+			outcome: shipped ? "ship" : hardFailure ? "hold" : significance.fewRuns || !powerSufficient || significance.decision.indeterminate ? "need_more_work" : "hold",
 			reasons: reasons.length > 0 ? reasons : ["all measured checks passed"],
 			contributingChecks: checks
 		},
@@ -922,6 +925,46 @@ function evaluatePairedMeasurements(options) {
 		measurementWorkDurationMs
 	};
 }
+/**
+* Say why the paired significance check refused, reading the interval that
+* ACTUALLY decided.
+*
+* The old string always printed `significance.bootstrap.low`, which is a
+* DIAGNOSTIC bootstrap that on several paths never enters the decision at all.
+* That produced self-contradicting holds — observed live: "paired interval lower
+* bound 0.6666666666666669 did not clear 0", where 0.667 plainly clears 0. Three
+* paths where the old string was simply reporting the wrong number:
+*
+*   - ZERO-VARIANCE sample. Every paired delta identical ⇒ the resample
+*     distribution is a point mass and the interval collapses to [g, g]. The
+*     refusal is correct and load-bearing, and the reason has to say so.
+*     Under the bounded asymmetric null this repo documents (2 % of pairs drop
+*     by 1.0, the rest gain 0.0204, true mean paired delta exactly 0), a
+*     constant-positive sample is exactly a sample in which no pair drew the
+*     drop, so its frequency is closed-form 0.98^n — 88.6 % at n = 6 and 66.8 %
+*     at n = 20. That reconciles with the false-promotion rates measured on the
+*     composable gate for the same null, 88.50 % at n = 6 and 65.65 % at n = 20
+*     (see {@link decidePairedPromotion} in `src/paired-promotion-decision.ts`);
+*     no number here is independently measured, and none needs to be. A
+*     constant positive delta is therefore NOT the strongest evidence — it is
+*     the signature of a held-out set too small or too uniform to have sampled
+*     the tail, and promoting on it would false-promote a true-zero candidate
+*     most of the time. No distribution-free bound rescues it either: a
+*     Hoeffding 95 % lower bound on a constant +0.667 with scores in [0, 1] is
+*     −0.33 at n = 6 and −0.11 at n = 10, first clearing 0 at n = 20. The
+*     estimator genuinely cannot express this sample, so the gate says that and
+*     routes to `need_more_work` — vary or extend the held-out cells.
+*   - TWO-POINT outcome, where the score interval decided and the bootstrap was
+*     never consulted.
+*   - McNEMAR VETO, where no interval failed at all.
+*/
+function significanceReason(significance, deltaThreshold) {
+	if (significance.fewRuns) return `only ${significance.n} paired runs; ${significance.minimumRequired} required`;
+	const { decision } = significance;
+	if (decision.indeterminate) return `paired ${decision.statistic} interval is degenerate at [${decision.low}, ${decision.high}] (${decision.indeterminateCause}); a zero-width interval carries no information about its own error, so no threshold can be cleared on it — vary or extend the held-out cells`;
+	if (decision.exactTestVetoes && decision.mcnemar !== null) return `McNemar's exact test refuses at threshold ${deltaThreshold}: b=${decision.mcnemar.b}, c=${decision.mcnemar.c}, p=${decision.mcnemar.pValue}`;
+	return `paired ${decision.statistic} interval lower bound ${decision.low} did not clear ${deltaThreshold}.${decision.methodDetail}`;
+}
 /** Build the only publishable comparison: paired statistics over Runtime receipts. */
 function measuredComparisonFromCandidateExperiment(options) {
 	const experiment = verifyCandidateExperiment(options.experiment);