npm - @tangle-network/agent-eval - Versions diffs - 0.135.0 → 0.135.2 - Mend

@tangle-network/agent-eval 0.135.0 → 0.135.2

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package/dist/{reward-hacking-DCdRK9TY.js.map → reward-hacking-a-kYs0-i.js.map} RENAMED Viewed

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1	- {"version":3,"file":"reward-hacking-DCdRK9TY.js","names":["mean","clamp01"],"sources":["../src/campaign/run-record.ts","../src/rl/verifiable-reward.ts","../src/rl/reward-hacking.ts"],"sourcesContent":["import type { AgentProfileCell } from '../agent-profile-cell'\nimport type {\n JudgeScoresRecord,\n RunOutcome,\n RunRecord,\n RunSplitTag,\n RunTerminalOutcome,\n} from '../run-record'\nimport { validateRunRecord } from '../run-record'\nimport type { CampaignCellResult, JudgeScore } from './types'\n\nexport interface CampaignCellRunRecordOptions {\n runId: string\n experimentId: string\n candidateId: string\n model: string\n promptHash: string\n configHash: string\n commitSha: string\n splitTag: RunSplitTag\n seed?: number\n scenarioId?: string\n defaultCostUsd?: number\n agentProfile?: AgentProfileCell\n raw?: Record<string, number>\n}\n\nexport interface CampaignCellQualityProjection {\n score?: number\n judgeScores?: JudgeScoresRecord\n successfulJudgeScores: Record<string, JudgeScore>\n failedJudges: string[]\n raw: Record<string, number>\n}\n\nexport interface CampaignCellExecutionEvidence {\n terminalOutcome: RunTerminalOutcome\n executionErrorCount?: number\n judgeErrorCount?: number\n unclassifiedErrorCount?: number\n terminalFailureReason?: string\n}\n\n/*\n Project one campaign cell into the canonical run format.\n \n A dispatch error establishes terminal execution failure. A judge error only\n * establishes that quality measurement failed after dispatch completed.\n * Failures without a stage remain unknown. No failure becomes a zero-quality\n * label.\n /\nexport function campaignCellToRunRecord<TArtifact>(\n cell: CampaignCellResult<TArtifact>,\n options: CampaignCellRunRecordOptions,\n): RunRecord {\n const quality = projectCampaignCellQuality(cell)\n const execution = campaignCellExecutionEvidence(cell)\n const judgeErrorCount = Math.max(\n quality.raw.judge_error_count ?? 0,\n execution.judgeErrorCount ?? 0,\n )\n const cellCostCaptured = Number.isFinite(cell.costUsd) && cell.costUsd >= 0\n const costUsd = cellCostCaptured ? cell.costUsd : (options.defaultCostUsd ?? null)\n const costProvenance =\n costUsd === null\n ? ({ kind: 'uncaptured', usd: null } as const)\n : cellCostCaptured && !cell.costEstimated\n ? ({ kind: 'observed', usd: costUsd } as const)\n : ({ kind: 'estimated', usd: costUsd } as const)\n const raw: Record<string, number> = {\n ...finiteMetrics(options.raw),\n ...quality.raw,\n rep: cell.rep,\n duration_ms: cell.durationMs,\n ...(costUsd === null ? {} : { cost_usd: costUsd }),\n cost_estimated: cell.costEstimated ? 1 : 0,\n tokens_input: cell.tokenUsage.input,\n tokens_output: cell.tokenUsage.output,\n latency_ms: cell.durationMs,\n ...(execution.executionErrorCount === undefined\n ? {}\n : { execution_error_count: execution.executionErrorCount }),\n ...(judgeErrorCount > 0 ? { judge_error_count: judgeErrorCount } : {}),\n ...(execution.unclassifiedErrorCount === undefined\n ? {}\n : { unclassified_error_count: execution.unclassifiedErrorCount }),\n }\n if (typeof cell.generation === 'number') raw.generation = cell.generation\n if (cell.tokenUsage.reasoning !== undefined) {\n raw.tokens_reasoning = cell.tokenUsage.reasoning\n }\n if (cell.tokenUsage.cached !== undefined) raw.tokens_cached = cell.tokenUsage.cached\n if (cell.tokenUsage.cacheWrite !== undefined) {\n raw.tokens_cache_write = cell.tokenUsage.cacheWrite\n }\n if (costUsd !== null && costUsd > 0) {\n raw.tokens_per_dollar = (cell.tokenUsage.input + cell.tokenUsage.output) / costUsd\n }\n if (costUsd !== null && quality.score !== undefined && quality.score > 0.01) {\n raw.cost_per_quality = costUsd / quality.score\n }\n\n const outcome: RunOutcome = {\n raw,\n ...(quality.judgeScores ? { judgeScores: quality.judgeScores } : {}),\n }\n if (quality.score !== undefined) {\n if (options.splitTag === 'holdout') outcome.holdoutScore = quality.score\n else outcome.searchScore = quality.score\n }\n\n return validateRunRecord({\n runId: options.runId,\n experimentId: options.experimentId,\n candidateId: options.candidateId,\n seed: options.seed ?? cell.seed,\n model: options.model,\n promptHash: options.promptHash,\n configHash: options.configHash,\n commitSha: options.commitSha,\n wallMs: cell.durationMs,\n costUsd,\n costProvenance,\n tokenUsage: { ...cell.tokenUsage },\n terminalOutcome: execution.terminalOutcome,\n ...(execution.terminalFailureReason\n ? { terminalFailureReason: execution.terminalFailureReason }\n : {}),\n outcome,\n splitTag: options.splitTag,\n scenarioId: options.scenarioId ?? cell.scenarioId,\n ...(options.agentProfile ? { agentProfile: options.agentProfile } : {}),\n })\n}\n\nexport function campaignCellExecutionEvidence<TArtifact>(\n cell: CampaignCellResult<TArtifact>,\n): CampaignCellExecutionEvidence {\n if (cell.errorStage === 'dispatch') {\n return {\n terminalOutcome: 'failed',\n executionErrorCount: 1,\n ...(cell.error ? { terminalFailureReason: cell.error } : {}),\n }\n }\n if (cell.errorStage === 'judge') {\n return {\n terminalOutcome: 'succeeded',\n executionErrorCount: 0,\n judgeErrorCount: 1,\n }\n }\n if (!cell.error) {\n return { terminalOutcome: 'succeeded', executionErrorCount: 0 }\n }\n return {\n terminalOutcome: 'unknown',\n unclassifiedErrorCount: 1,\n }\n}\n\n/\n Produce the only task-quality view used by campaign aggregates and exports.\n \n Successful judge results remain available for diagnosis after another judge\n * fails, but a task score exists only for an error-free cell whose reported\n * judge values are all finite.\n /\nexport function projectCampaignCellQuality<TArtifact>(\n cell: CampaignCellResult<TArtifact>,\n): CampaignCellQualityProjection {\n if (cell.errorStage === 'dispatch') {\n return { successfulJudgeScores: {}, failedJudges: [], raw: {} }\n }\n\n const perJudge: Record<string, Record<string, number>> = {}\n const successfulJudgeScores: Record<string, JudgeScore> = {}\n const dimensionValues = new Map<string, number[]>()\n const composites: number[] = []\n const notes: string[] = []\n const failedJudges = new Set<string>(\n cell.errorStage === 'judge' ? [cell.errorJudge ?? 'unknown-judge'] : [],\n )\n const raw: Record<string, number> = {}\n\n for (const [judgeName, score] of Object.entries(cell.judgeScores)) {\n const finiteDimensions = Object.values(score.dimensions).every(Number.isFinite)\n if (score.failed \|\| !Number.isFinite(score.composite) \|\| !finiteDimensions) {\n failedJudges.add(judgeName)\n continue\n }\n\n composites.push(score.composite)\n successfulJudgeScores[judgeName] = score\n const dimensions = { ...score.dimensions }\n perJudge[judgeName] = dimensions\n for (const [dimension, value] of Object.entries(dimensions)) {\n raw[`${judgeName}.${dimension}`] = value\n const values = dimensionValues.get(dimension) ?? []\n values.push(value)\n dimensionValues.set(dimension, values)\n }\n if (score.notes) notes.push(`${judgeName}: ${score.notes}`)\n for (const failedJudge of score.failedJudges ?? []) {\n failedJudges.add(`${judgeName}/${failedJudge}`)\n }\n }\n\n if (failedJudges.size > 0) raw.judge_error_count = failedJudges.size\n const sortedFailedJudges = [...failedJudges].sort()\n if (composites.length === 0) {\n return {\n successfulJudgeScores,\n failedJudges: sortedFailedJudges,\n raw,\n }\n }\n\n const composite = mean(composites)\n const perDimMean = Object.fromEntries(\n [...dimensionValues.entries()].map(([dimension, values]) => [dimension, mean(values)]),\n )\n const complete =\n cell.error === undefined && cell.errorStage === undefined && failedJudges.size === 0\n if (complete) raw.composite = composite\n\n return {\n ...(complete ? { score: composite } : {}),\n raw,\n successfulJudgeScores,\n failedJudges: sortedFailedJudges,\n judgeScores: {\n perJudge,\n perDimMean,\n composite,\n ...(sortedFailedJudges.length > 0 ? { failedJudges: sortedFailedJudges } : {}),\n ...(notes.length > 0 ? { notes: notes.join(' \| ') } : {}),\n },\n }\n}\n\n/* Read the canonical task score without recomputing cell quality. /\nexport function campaignCellTaskScore<TArtifact>(\n cell: CampaignCellResult<TArtifact>,\n): number \| undefined {\n return projectCampaignCellQuality(cell).score\n}\n\n/* Read canonical successful judge dimensions without recomputing cell quality. /\nexport function campaignCellJudgeDimensions<TArtifact>(\n cell: CampaignCellResult<TArtifact>,\n): Record<string, Record<string, number>> {\n return projectCampaignCellQuality(cell).judgeScores?.perJudge ?? {}\n}\n\nfunction finiteMetrics(metrics: Record<string, number> \| undefined): Record<string, number> {\n const finite: Record<string, number> = {}\n for (const [key, value] of Object.entries(metrics ?? {})) {\n if (Number.isFinite(value)) finite[key] = value\n }\n return finite\n}\n\nfunction mean(values: number[]): number {\n return values.reduce((sum, value) => sum + value, 0) / values.length\n}\n","/\n Verifiable reward channel.\n \n For RL on coding / math / theorem-proving / structured-output tasks, the\n * reward signal is decidable — a test passes or fails, a proof checks or\n * doesn't, an output validates against a schema or doesn't. These rewards\n * are dramatically more useful for RL training than LLM-judge scores\n * because they don't drift, can't be Goodhart-gamed by the policy in the\n * same way, and don't require a separate calibration loop.\n \n The `MultiLayerVerifier` already produces this signal — it just doesn't\n * surface it in a shape that's clean enough for RL training. This module\n * wraps the verifier output so consumers can:\n \n 1. Extract a clean `VerifiableReward` from a `VerificationReport`\n * 2. Distinguish deterministic rewards (compile, test, schema) from\n * probabilistic rewards (judge) so they can be weighted differently\n * in the RL training step\n * 3. Filter `RunRecord[]` to only those with a verifiable reward,\n * producing the clean training set that DeepSeek-R1-style GRPO and\n * AlphaProof-style search both depend on\n \n Why this matters: every credible 2025-2026 frontier RL result on coding\n * agents leans on verifiable reward (DeepSeek-R1 GRPO on test pass-rate,\n * o-series RL on math/code, AlphaProof on Lean kernel checking). Mixing\n * judge scores into the reward signal poisons the gradient. This module\n * is the seam.\n /\n\nimport type { LayerResult, VerificationReport } from '../multi-layer-verifier'\nimport { isRealnessGated, observedScore, trainingScore } from '../rollout/reward'\nimport type { RunRecord } from '../run-record'\n\nexport type VerifiableRewardSource =\n \| 'compile' // typecheck / build / lint passed\n \| 'test' // unit / integration test pass-rate\n \| 'schema' // structured output validates\n \| 'sandbox' // sandbox exec exit code\n \| 'judge' // LLM judge — probabilistic, included for completeness\n \| 'composite' // weighted blend across multiple of the above\n\nexport interface VerifiableReward {\n /* Scalar in [0, 1]. The RL training signal. /\n value: number\n /* What produced the reward — different sources have different determinism. /\n source: VerifiableRewardSource\n /\n Determinism class. `'deterministic'` rewards are repeatable byte-for-byte\n * given the same inputs (compile, test, schema validation, sandbox exit code).\n * `'probabilistic'` rewards depend on a stochastic component (LLM judge).\n * Mixing these in the same training batch without separation is a known\n * footgun in production RLHF pipelines.\n /\n determinism: 'deterministic' \| 'probabilistic'\n /\n Confidence in the reward value. For deterministic sources this is 1.0\n * (the bit either flipped or didn't). For judge sources this is the\n * judge-reported confidence or — when missing — a calibrated prior.\n /\n confidence: number\n /* The layer / judge id that produced the signal, for provenance. /\n origin: string\n /\n Per-source contribution to `value`, keyed by layer/judge id. Single-source\n * rewards carry one entry (`{ [origin]: value }`); composite rewards carry\n * every contributing layer's score — the anti-scalar-collapse surface RL\n * consumers weight per-source instead of trusting one blended number.\n /\n components: Record<string, number>\n /\n The run carries `outcome.realness.gated` — the authenticity gate flagged\n * its success signal as faked.\n \n With the gate applied (the default) `value` and every `components` entry\n * are 0 on such a run; with `applyRealnessGate: false` the observed numbers\n * come back untouched and this flag is the only marker that they are not to\n * be trusted. Either way it distinguishes \"measured a genuine failure\" from\n * \"claimed a success we refuse to believe\", which a bare 0 cannot.\n /\n realnessGated?: boolean\n /\n Whether an authenticity screen COULD run on this reward at all — the same\n * distinction `RolloutOutcome.realness_screened` draws, for the same reason.\n \n `false` on every reward from `extractVerifiableReward`, because a\n * `VerificationReport` carries layer scores and nothing else: there is no\n * `outcome.realness` to consult, so no gate has run, and `realnessGated`\n * being absent there means \"unknown\", NOT \"clean\". Absent on the\n * `RunRecord` path when the record itself carries no realness verdict.\n \n This matters most exactly where it is easiest to miss: a report whose\n * deterministic layers all passed yields `determinism: 'deterministic'`,\n * `confidence: 1` — the highest-credibility reward this module can emit —\n * and a stubbed integration reporting green is precisely what a gamed run\n * looks like. Consumers driving training off this shape must screen the run\n * themselves; the flag is what tells them nobody has.\n /\n realnessScreened?: boolean\n}\n\nexport interface VerifiableRewardExtractionOptions {\n /\n Which layers count as deterministic-reward sources. The verifier doesn't\n * tag layers as \"this is verifiable\"; the caller declares it via this list\n * (or via the layer name → source mapping). Default treats common names\n * (`install`, `typecheck`, `build`, `lint`, `test`, `compile`, `schema`,\n * `sandbox`) as deterministic.\n /\n deterministicLayers?: string[]\n /\n Map layer name → reward source. Defaults to a sensible string-match.\n /\n sourceFor?: (layerName: string) => VerifiableRewardSource\n /\n Whether to fall back to a probabilistic (judge) reward when no\n * deterministic layer produced a numeric score. Default `true`. Set to\n * `false` for \"deterministic-only\" training pipelines that should\n * discard runs without a verifiable signal.\n /\n fallbackToJudge?: boolean\n /\n Default confidence for probabilistic (judge) rewards when the judge\n * doesn't report one. Default `0.7`.\n /\n judgeConfidenceFloor?: number\n /\n Whether the anti-Goodhart realness gate applies. Default `true`, and the\n * default is the one every training path must keep.\n \n Set `false` ONLY for detection and analysis. `rl/reward-hacking.ts` does,\n * for the same reason it reads `observedScore` for its proxy: it measures the\n * DIVERGENCE between the judge signal and the deterministic one, and a\n * deterministic reward that another gate already forced to 0 manufactures\n * exactly that divergence on exactly the gamed population. The detector would\n * then be re-reporting a verdict it was supposed to reach independently.\n /\n applyRealnessGate?: boolean\n}\n\nconst DEFAULT_DETERMINISTIC_LAYERS = new Set([\n 'install',\n 'typecheck',\n 'build',\n 'lint',\n 'test',\n 'compile',\n 'schema',\n 'sandbox',\n 'unit_tests',\n 'integration_tests',\n])\n\nconst DEFAULT_SOURCE_FOR = (name: string): VerifiableRewardSource => {\n const lower = name.toLowerCase()\n if (lower.includes('test')) return 'test'\n if (\n lower.includes('compile') \|\|\n lower.includes('build') \|\|\n lower.includes('typecheck') \|\|\n lower.includes('lint')\n )\n return 'compile'\n if (lower.includes('schema')) return 'schema'\n if (lower.includes('sandbox')) return 'sandbox'\n if (lower.includes('judge') \|\| lower.includes('semantic')) return 'judge'\n return 'composite'\n}\n\n/\n Extract a `VerifiableReward` from a `VerificationReport`.\n \n Strategy: prefer the deterministic layers (in order: test → compile →\n * schema → sandbox), fall back to the judge layer if `fallbackToJudge` is\n * true, return `null` if no signal qualifies. When multiple deterministic\n * layers contribute, return a `'composite'` source with a weighted blend.\n \n NO realness gate is applied and none can be: a `VerificationReport` carries\n * layer scores and nothing about whether the run faked them — `realness` lives\n * on the `RunRecord`. Use `extractVerifiableRewardsFromRecords` for anything\n * that becomes training data; this signature is for scoring a report in hand.\n /\nexport function extractVerifiableReward(\n report: VerificationReport,\n opts: VerifiableRewardExtractionOptions = {},\n): VerifiableReward \| null {\n const deterministicSet = new Set(opts.deterministicLayers ?? [...DEFAULT_DETERMINISTIC_LAYERS])\n const sourceFor = opts.sourceFor ?? DEFAULT_SOURCE_FOR\n const fallbackToJudge = opts.fallbackToJudge ?? true\n const judgeFloor = opts.judgeConfidenceFloor ?? 0.7\n\n const deterministic = report.layers.filter(\n (layer) => deterministicSet.has(layer.layer) && isMeasuredLayer(layer),\n )\n\n if (deterministic.length === 1) {\n const layer = deterministic[0]!\n const value = clamp01(layer.score!)\n return {\n value,\n source: sourceFor(layer.layer),\n determinism: 'deterministic',\n confidence: 1,\n origin: layer.layer,\n components: { [layer.layer]: value },\n realnessScreened: false,\n }\n }\n\n if (deterministic.length > 1) {\n // Composite: weighted blend by `Layer.weight` if present, else equal.\n let num = 0\n let denom = 0\n const components: Record<string, number> = {}\n for (const l of deterministic) {\n const w = (l.detail?.weight as number \| undefined) ?? 1\n num += w (l.score ?? 0)\n denom += w\n components[l.layer] = l.score!\n }\n return {\n value: denom === 0 ? 0 : clamp01(num / denom),\n source: 'composite',\n determinism: 'deterministic',\n confidence: 1,\n origin: deterministic.map((l) => l.layer).join('+'),\n components,\n realnessScreened: false,\n }\n }\n\n if (!fallbackToJudge) return null\n\n const judge =\n report.layers.find((layer) => isMeasuredLayer(layer) && sourceFor(layer.layer) === 'judge') ??\n report.layers.find(isMeasuredLayer)\n\n if (!judge) return null\n\n const confFromDetail = judge.detail?.confidence as number \| undefined\n const judgeValue = clamp01(judge.score!)\n return {\n value: judgeValue,\n source: 'judge',\n determinism: 'probabilistic',\n confidence: typeof confFromDetail === 'number' ? confFromDetail : judgeFloor,\n origin: judge.layer,\n components: { [judge.layer]: judgeValue },\n realnessScreened: false,\n }\n}\n\nfunction isMeasuredLayer(\n layer: LayerResult,\n): layer is LayerResult & { status: 'pass' \| 'fail'; score: number } {\n return (\n (layer.status === 'pass' \|\| layer.status === 'fail') &&\n typeof layer.score === 'number' &&\n Number.isFinite(layer.score) &&\n layer.score >= 0 &&\n layer.score <= 1\n )\n}\n\n/*\n Extract verifiable rewards from `RunRecord[]` produced via the\n * `verificationReportToRunRecord` adapter (which encodes per-layer scores\n * in `outcome.raw['layer.<name>']`). For records that don't carry layer\n * scores, returns `null` for that record.\n \n This is the canonical bridge from \"campaign-shaped artifacts\" to\n * \"RL-training-ready reward signals\": every record that has a clean\n * verifiable reward becomes a training datum, every record that doesn't\n * gets filtered out (or kept with `'probabilistic'` determinism for\n * separate downstream handling).\n \n The realness gate applies to EVERY channel here, and to the deterministic one\n * MOST. It is tempting to reason that a decidable signal cannot be gamed, so\n * the gate is redundant on it — that reasoning is backwards. `realness.gated`\n * means the run's success signal was FAKED, and a test suite reporting green on\n * a stubbed integration is precisely what that looks like: the deterministic\n * layer is the thing that got faked. Exporting it ungated hands a trainer the\n * highest-credibility reward the module can emit (`determinism: 'deterministic'`,\n * `confidence: 1`) for the one population the gate exists to catch. Pass\n * `applyRealnessGate: false` only to look at the ungated numbers for detection.\n /\nexport function extractVerifiableRewardsFromRecords(\n runs: RunRecord[],\n opts: VerifiableRewardExtractionOptions = {},\n): Array<{ runId: string; reward: VerifiableReward \| null }> {\n const sourceFor = opts.sourceFor ?? DEFAULT_SOURCE_FOR\n const deterministicSet = new Set(opts.deterministicLayers ?? [...DEFAULT_DETERMINISTIC_LAYERS])\n const fallbackToJudge = opts.fallbackToJudge ?? true\n const judgeFloor = opts.judgeConfidenceFloor ?? 0.7\n const applyGate = opts.applyRealnessGate ?? true\n\n return runs.map((run) => {\n const flagged = isRealnessGated(run)\n // Present only when the record carries an actual realness verdict. Absent\n // is the honest \"unknown\"; `false` is reserved for a producer that\n // declares it HAS no screen, which is the report-shaped path above.\n const screened = run.outcome.realness === undefined ? {} : ({ realnessScreened: true } as const)\n // Zeroed with `value`, never left at the measured number: `components`\n // exists so an RL consumer can re-weight per source, and a raw layer score\n // surviving there would let that re-weighting reconstruct the very reward\n // the gate just refused. The measured layer scores stay on\n // `run.outcome.raw['layer.']`, which is where analysis reads them.\n const gate = (value: number): number => (applyGate && flagged ? 0 : value)\n // Recover per-layer scores from outcome.raw['layer.<name>']\n const layerScores: Array<{ name: string; score: number }> = []\n for (const [k, v] of Object.entries(run.outcome.raw)) {\n if (\n k.startsWith('layer.') &&\n !k.includes('.', 6) &&\n typeof v === 'number' &&\n Number.isFinite(v)\n ) {\n layerScores.push({ name: k.slice('layer.'.length), score: v })\n }\n }\n const det = layerScores.filter((l) => deterministicSet.has(l.name))\n\n if (det.length === 1) {\n const layer = det[0]!\n const value = gate(clamp01(layer.score))\n return {\n runId: run.runId,\n reward: {\n value,\n source: sourceFor(layer.name),\n determinism: 'deterministic',\n confidence: 1,\n origin: layer.name,\n components: { [layer.name]: value },\n realnessGated: flagged,\n ...screened,\n },\n }\n }\n if (det.length > 1) {\n const value = gate(clamp01(det.reduce((s, l) => s + l.score, 0) / det.length))\n // Same clamp as the headline value: a producer writing layer.score 1.5\n // into outcome.raw must not propagate 1.5 through a component either.\n const components: Record<string, number> = Object.fromEntries(\n det.map((l) => [l.name, gate(clamp01(l.score))]),\n )\n return {\n runId: run.runId,\n reward: {\n value,\n source: 'composite',\n determinism: 'deterministic',\n confidence: 1,\n origin: det.map((l) => l.name).join('+'),\n components,\n realnessGated: flagged,\n ...screened,\n },\n }\n }\n if (!fallbackToJudge) return { runId: run.runId, reward: null }\n\n // Probabilistic fallback: the run's primary score. `trainingScore` already\n // carries the gate, so a gamed run falls to 0 rather than earning the\n // judge's number; `observedScore` is the ungated reader the detection\n // opt-out asks for. Either way an unscored run stays a labeled gap\n // (`reward: null`), never a fabricated 0.\n const primary = applyGate ? trainingScore(run) : observedScore(run)\n if (typeof primary !== 'number' \|\| !Number.isFinite(primary)) {\n return { runId: run.runId, reward: null }\n }\n const primaryValue = clamp01(primary)\n return {\n runId: run.runId,\n reward: {\n value: primaryValue,\n source: 'judge',\n determinism: 'probabilistic',\n confidence: judgeFloor,\n origin: 'run.outcome.score',\n components: { 'run.outcome.score': primaryValue },\n realnessGated: flagged,\n ...screened,\n },\n }\n })\n}\n\n/*\n Filter `RunRecord[]` to those with deterministic verifiable rewards.\n \n A realness-gated run is KEPT, at reward 0 with `realnessGated: true` — the\n * same rule GRPO uses on a gated line. 0 is the honest label for a faked\n * success and is usable signal, whereas dropping the run would move a group\n * baseline without saying so. (SFT differs: there every row is a target to\n * imitate, so a gated row is removed outright.)\n /\nexport function filterDeterministicallyRewarded(\n runs: RunRecord[],\n opts: VerifiableRewardExtractionOptions = {},\n): Array<{ run: RunRecord; reward: VerifiableReward }> {\n const rewarded = extractVerifiableRewardsFromRecords(runs, { ...opts, fallbackToJudge: false })\n const out: Array<{ run: RunRecord; reward: VerifiableReward }> = []\n for (let i = 0; i < runs.length; i++) {\n const r = rewarded[i]!\n if (r.reward && r.reward.determinism === 'deterministic') {\n out.push({ run: runs[i]!, reward: r.reward })\n }\n }\n return out\n}\n\nfunction clamp01(x: number): number {\n if (!Number.isFinite(x)) return 0\n return Math.max(0, Math.min(1, x))\n}\n","/\n Reward hacking / Goodhart detection.\n \n Goodhart's Law says: when a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be\n * a good measure. In RLHF and agentic-RL settings this is the dominant\n * failure mode — the policy learns to produce outputs that score well on\n * the proxy reward (judge, rubric, test pass-rate) without producing\n * the underlying capability the proxy was meant to track.\n \n Krakovna et al. (2020, \"Specification Gaming Examples in AI\") and the\n * subsequent RLHF reward-hacking literature (Skalse et al. 2022, Kim et al.\n * 2023) converge on a few diagnostic signatures:\n \n 1. Reward divergence: the proxy reward grows while the held-out\n * ground-truth signal stagnates or drops. Predictive validity over\n * time captures this.\n * 2. Distributional shift in outputs: after RL, the policy produces\n * outputs that no longer match the reference distribution — usually\n * because it found a high-reward attractor that's degenerate (e.g.\n * one-token responses, repetition, formatting tricks).\n * 3. Disagreement between independent rewards: if you train on\n * reward A and a held-out independent reward B drops sharply, you're\n * probably hacking A.\n * 4. Calibration drift: the verifiable / deterministic component of\n * the reward is stable; the probabilistic / judge component drifts up\n * while the deterministic component doesn't. The judge is being\n * gamed.\n \n This module ships explicit detectors for all four signatures, plus a\n * combined verdict. The output is diagnostic — actionable signals,\n * not autoreject — because each signature has known false positives\n * (e.g., a policy that genuinely improves can show distributional shift).\n \n Differs from `rubricPredictiveValidity` (which is a standing check on\n * whether rubrics correlate with deployment outcomes) — this is a\n * temporal check on whether the reward-vs-truth gap is widening over\n time during a training run.\n /\n\nimport { observedScore } from '../rollout/reward'\nimport type { RunRecord } from '../run-record'\nimport { pearsonR } from '../statistics'\nimport {\n filterDeterministicallyRewarded,\n type VerifiableRewardExtractionOptions,\n} from './verifiable-reward'\n\nexport type RewardHackingSignal =\n \| 'reward_divergence'\n \| 'distribution_shift'\n \| 'reward_disagreement'\n \| 'judge_drift'\n\nexport interface RewardHackingFinding {\n signal: RewardHackingSignal\n /** Severity in [0, 1]. >0.5 = strong signal. /\n severity: number\n message: string\n /* Numeric evidence the consumer can render. /\n detail: Record<string, number>\n}\n\nexport interface RewardHackingReport {\n findings: RewardHackingFinding[]\n /* Signals with enough usable observations to produce a finding. /\n evaluatedSignals: RewardHackingSignal[]\n /\n Composite verdict. `'insufficient_evidence'` when fewer than four scored\n * runs exist; otherwise `'clean'` if every signal severity < 0.3,\n * `'suspect'` if at least one ≥ 0.3 but none ≥ 0.6, and `'gaming'` if any ≥ 0.6.\n /\n verdict: 'insufficient_evidence' \| 'clean' \| 'suspect' \| 'gaming'\n /* Rationale for the verdict, ready to paste into an audit log. /\n rationale: string[]\n /* Number of runs with a usable proxy reward. /\n n: number\n}\n\nexport interface DetectRewardHackingInput {\n /\n Run records ordered by recency (oldest first). The detector segments\n * them into prefix/suffix windows to compute \"did the gap widen.\"\n /\n runs: RunRecord[]\n /\n The metric the policy was trained to optimize. Should be present on\n * `outcome.raw` or `outcome.holdoutScore`. Default reads `outcome.holdoutScore`.\n /\n proxyOf?: (run: RunRecord) => number \| null\n /\n The held-out ground-truth metric. For RL on coding, this is typically\n * test pass-rate. For RLHF, it's downstream task performance or human\n * preference. For knowledge tasks, it's an independently-graded score.\n /\n truthOf?: (run: RunRecord) => number \| null\n /\n Independent secondary reward. Used for the `reward_disagreement`\n * signal. Default uses the verifiable reward extractor (deterministic\n * sources only).\n /\n secondaryRewardOf?: (run: RunRecord) => number \| null\n /\n Window size — how many of the most recent runs count as the \"after\"\n * cohort. Default min(50, half the runs).\n /\n windowSize?: number\n /\n Severity threshold to flag a signal. Default 0.3 (suspect) and 0.6\n * (gaming).\n /\n thresholds?: { suspect?: number; gaming?: number }\n /\n Verifiable-reward options used for the secondary-reward fallback.\n /\n verifiableRewardOptions?: VerifiableRewardExtractionOptions\n}\n\nconst DEFAULT_PROXY = (r: RunRecord): number \| null => {\n // DELIBERATELY UNGATED. This is the proxy reward the detector tests for\n // Goodharting, and gated runs are exactly the gamed population. Forcing them\n // to 0 would collapse the proxy toward the deterministic secondary signal —\n // `reward_disagreement`'s correlation would rise, `judge_drift`'s gap would\n // shrink, and `reward_divergence`'s proxy-up/truth-flat fingerprint would be\n // erased — so the detector would report \"clean\" on the very runs it exists to\n // catch. `null` (never 0) is also load-bearing: it sets the n-denominator via\n // the filter below.\n const v = observedScore(r)\n return typeof v === 'number' && Number.isFinite(v) ? v : null\n}\n\nexport function detectRewardHacking(input: DetectRewardHackingInput): RewardHackingReport {\n const proxyOf = input.proxyOf ?? DEFAULT_PROXY\n const truthOf = input.truthOf\n const sus = input.thresholds?.suspect ?? 0.3\n const gam = input.thresholds?.gaming ?? 0.6\n\n const runs = input.runs.filter((run) => finiteNumber(proxyOf(run)))\n const n = runs.length\n if (n < 4) {\n return {\n findings: [],\n evaluatedSignals: [],\n verdict: 'insufficient_evidence',\n n,\n rationale: [`fewer than 4 runs with proxy reward (n=${n}); insufficient evidence`],\n }\n }\n const windowSize = Math.max(1, input.windowSize ?? Math.min(50, Math.floor(n / 2)))\n const before = runs.slice(0, n - windowSize)\n const after = runs.slice(n - windowSize)\n\n const findings: RewardHackingFinding[] = []\n\n // ── Signal 1: reward divergence (proxy ↑ while truth flat or ↓) ──────\n if (truthOf) {\n const beforeProxy = before.map(proxyOf).filter(finiteNumber)\n const afterProxy = after.map(proxyOf).filter(finiteNumber)\n const beforeTruth = before.map(truthOf).filter(finiteNumber)\n const afterTruth = after.map(truthOf).filter(finiteNumber)\n if (\n beforeProxy.length >= 2 &&\n afterProxy.length >= 2 &&\n beforeTruth.length >= 2 &&\n afterTruth.length >= 2\n ) {\n const proxyDelta = mean(afterProxy) - mean(beforeProxy)\n const truthDelta = mean(afterTruth) - mean(beforeTruth)\n // Divergence: proxy goes up while truth goes flat or down.\n // Severity = max(0, (proxyDelta - truthDelta)) — bigger gap = bigger signal.\n const gap = Math.max(0, proxyDelta - truthDelta)\n const severity = clamp01(gap 5) // scale: 0.2 absolute gap → severity 1.0\n findings.push({\n signal: 'reward_divergence',\n severity,\n message:\n severity >= sus\n ? `proxy reward rose by ${proxyDelta.toFixed(3)} while truth changed by ${truthDelta.toFixed(3)} — potential Goodhart`\n : `proxy and truth moved together (proxy ${proxyDelta.toFixed(3)}, truth ${truthDelta.toFixed(3)})`,\n detail: {\n proxyDelta,\n truthDelta,\n gap,\n beforeN: beforeProxy.length,\n afterN: afterProxy.length,\n },\n })\n }\n }\n\n // ── Signal 2: distributional shift in outputs (KS on score distributions) ──\n {\n const beforeP = before.map(proxyOf).filter(finiteNumber)\n const afterP = after.map(proxyOf).filter(finiteNumber)\n if (beforeP.length >= 4 && afterP.length >= 4) {\n const ks = ksStatistic(beforeP, afterP)\n // KS statistic: bigger = more shift. We're agnostic about direction;\n // genuine improvement ALSO produces shift, so this signal is\n // contributory rather than load-bearing.\n const severity = clamp01(ks - 0.2)\n findings.push({\n signal: 'distribution_shift',\n severity,\n message:\n severity >= sus\n ? `KS=${ks.toFixed(3)} between before/after windows — distributional shift large`\n : `KS=${ks.toFixed(3)} between before/after windows — within-distribution drift`,\n detail: { ks, beforeN: beforeP.length, afterN: afterP.length },\n })\n }\n }\n\n // ── Signal 3: reward disagreement (proxy vs independent secondary) ────\n {\n const secondaryOf = input.secondaryRewardOf ?? defaultSecondary(input.verifiableRewardOptions)\n const aligned = runs\n .map((r) => ({ p: proxyOf(r), s: secondaryOf(r) }))\n .filter((x): x is { p: number; s: number } => finiteNumber(x.p) && finiteNumber(x.s))\n if (aligned.length >= 4) {\n const ps = aligned.map((x) => x.p)\n const ss = aligned.map((x) => x.s)\n const r = pearsonR(ps, ss)\n // Disagreement: low or negative correlation between primary proxy\n // reward and an independent secondary signal.\n const severity = clamp01(0.5 - Math.max(0, r))\n findings.push({\n signal: 'reward_disagreement',\n severity,\n message:\n severity >= sus\n ? `proxy and independent secondary reward correlate ρ=${r.toFixed(3)} — possibly hacking proxy`\n : `proxy and secondary reward correlate ρ=${r.toFixed(3)}`,\n detail: { pearson: r, n: aligned.length },\n })\n }\n }\n\n // ── Signal 4: judge drift (probabilistic up while deterministic flat) ─\n {\n // Ungated on purpose, exactly like `DEFAULT_PROXY` above. This signal is\n // the GAP between the judge reward and the deterministic one; a\n // deterministic reward another gate already forced to 0 would open that gap\n // by construction on the gamed population, so the detector would fire on\n // its own input rather than on evidence it found.\n const detRuns = filterDeterministicallyRewarded(runs, {\n ...(input.verifiableRewardOptions ?? {}),\n applyRealnessGate: false,\n })\n if (detRuns.length >= 4) {\n const detBefore = detRuns.slice(0, Math.floor(detRuns.length / 2))\n const detAfter = detRuns.slice(Math.floor(detRuns.length / 2))\n const detDelta =\n mean(detAfter.map((r) => r.reward.value)) - mean(detBefore.map((r) => r.reward.value))\n const proxyDelta =\n mean(after.map(proxyOf).filter(finiteNumber)) -\n mean(before.map(proxyOf).filter(finiteNumber))\n const driftGap = Math.max(0, proxyDelta - detDelta)\n const severity = clamp01(driftGap * 5)\n findings.push({\n signal: 'judge_drift',\n severity,\n message:\n severity >= sus\n ? `judge proxy +${proxyDelta.toFixed(3)} while deterministic reward +${detDelta.toFixed(3)} — judge drifting up without verifiable backing`\n : `judge and deterministic rewards move in step (judge ${proxyDelta.toFixed(3)}, det ${detDelta.toFixed(3)})`,\n detail: { proxyDelta, detDelta, driftGap, n: detRuns.length },\n })\n }\n }\n\n const maxSev = findings.reduce((m, f) => Math.max(m, f.severity), 0)\n if (findings.length === 0) {\n return {\n findings,\n evaluatedSignals: [],\n verdict: 'insufficient_evidence',\n rationale: [`no reward-hacking signal had enough paired evidence (n=${n})`],\n n,\n }\n }\n const verdict: RewardHackingReport['verdict'] =\n maxSev >= gam ? 'gaming' : maxSev >= sus ? 'suspect' : 'clean'\n const rationale = findings\n .filter((f) => f.severity >= sus)\n .map((f) => `${f.signal}: severity ${f.severity.toFixed(2)} — ${f.message}`)\n if (rationale.length === 0) rationale.push('no signals fired above suspect threshold')\n\n return {\n findings,\n evaluatedSignals: findings.map((finding) => finding.signal),\n verdict,\n rationale,\n n,\n }\n}\n\n// ── Helpers ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────\n\nfunction mean(xs: number[]): number {\n if (xs.length === 0) return 0\n return xs.reduce((s, x) => s + x, 0) / xs.length\n}\n\nfunction finiteNumber(value: number \| null): value is number {\n return typeof value === 'number' && Number.isFinite(value)\n}\n\nfunction clamp01(x: number): number {\n if (!Number.isFinite(x)) return 0\n return Math.max(0, Math.min(1, x))\n}\n\nfunction ksStatistic(a: number[], b: number[]): number {\n // Two-sample Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistic.\n const sortedA = [...a].sort((x, y) => x - y)\n const sortedB = [...b].sort((x, y) => x - y)\n const all = [...new Set([...sortedA, ...sortedB])].sort((x, y) => x - y)\n let max = 0\n for (const v of all) {\n const fa = sortedA.filter((x) => x <= v).length / sortedA.length\n const fb = sortedB.filter((x) => x <= v).length / sortedB.length\n max = Math.max(max, Math.abs(fa - fb))\n }\n return max\n}\n\nfunction defaultSecondary(\n verifiableOpts?: VerifiableRewardExtractionOptions,\n): (run: RunRecord) => number \| null {\n return (run: RunRecord) => {\n // Ungated for the same reason as signal 4: this is the INDEPENDENT\n // secondary reward whose correlation with the proxy is the evidence.\n // Zeroing it on gated runs would drive that correlation down mechanically.\n const filtered = filterDeterministicallyRewarded([run], {\n ...(verifiableOpts ?? {}),\n applyRealnessGate: false,\n })\n return filtered.length === 1 ? filtered[0]!.reward.value : null\n 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1	+ {"version":3,"file":"reward-hacking-a-kYs0-i.js","names":["mean","clamp01"],"sources":["../src/campaign/run-record.ts","../src/rl/verifiable-reward.ts","../src/rl/reward-hacking.ts"],"sourcesContent":["import type { AgentProfileCell } from '../agent-profile-cell'\nimport type {\n JudgeScoresRecord,\n RunOutcome,\n RunRecord,\n RunSplitTag,\n RunTerminalOutcome,\n} from '../run-record'\nimport { validateRunRecord } from '../run-record'\nimport type { CampaignCellResult, JudgeScore } from './types'\n\nexport interface CampaignCellRunRecordOptions {\n runId: string\n experimentId: string\n candidateId: string\n model: string\n promptHash: string\n configHash: string\n commitSha: string\n splitTag: RunSplitTag\n seed?: number\n scenarioId?: string\n defaultCostUsd?: number\n agentProfile?: AgentProfileCell\n raw?: Record<string, number>\n}\n\nexport interface CampaignCellQualityProjection {\n score?: number\n judgeScores?: JudgeScoresRecord\n successfulJudgeScores: Record<string, JudgeScore>\n failedJudges: string[]\n raw: Record<string, number>\n}\n\nexport interface CampaignCellExecutionEvidence {\n terminalOutcome: RunTerminalOutcome\n executionErrorCount?: number\n judgeErrorCount?: number\n unclassifiedErrorCount?: number\n terminalFailureReason?: string\n}\n\n/*\n Project one campaign cell into the canonical run format.\n \n A dispatch error establishes terminal execution failure. A judge error only\n * establishes that quality measurement failed after dispatch completed.\n * Failures without a stage remain unknown. No failure becomes a zero-quality\n * label.\n /\nexport function campaignCellToRunRecord<TArtifact>(\n cell: CampaignCellResult<TArtifact>,\n options: CampaignCellRunRecordOptions,\n): RunRecord {\n const quality = projectCampaignCellQuality(cell)\n const execution = campaignCellExecutionEvidence(cell)\n const judgeErrorCount = Math.max(\n quality.raw.judge_error_count ?? 0,\n execution.judgeErrorCount ?? 0,\n )\n const cellCostCaptured = Number.isFinite(cell.costUsd) && cell.costUsd >= 0\n const costUsd = cellCostCaptured ? cell.costUsd : (options.defaultCostUsd ?? null)\n const costProvenance =\n costUsd === null\n ? ({ kind: 'uncaptured', usd: null } as const)\n : cellCostCaptured && !cell.costEstimated\n ? ({ kind: 'observed', usd: costUsd } as const)\n : ({ kind: 'estimated', usd: costUsd } as const)\n const raw: Record<string, number> = {\n ...finiteMetrics(options.raw),\n ...quality.raw,\n rep: cell.rep,\n duration_ms: cell.durationMs,\n ...(costUsd === null ? {} : { cost_usd: costUsd }),\n cost_estimated: cell.costEstimated ? 1 : 0,\n tokens_input: cell.tokenUsage.input,\n tokens_output: cell.tokenUsage.output,\n latency_ms: cell.durationMs,\n ...(execution.executionErrorCount === undefined\n ? {}\n : { execution_error_count: execution.executionErrorCount }),\n ...(judgeErrorCount > 0 ? { judge_error_count: judgeErrorCount } : {}),\n ...(execution.unclassifiedErrorCount === undefined\n ? {}\n : { unclassified_error_count: execution.unclassifiedErrorCount }),\n }\n if (typeof cell.generation === 'number') raw.generation = cell.generation\n if (cell.tokenUsage.reasoning !== undefined) {\n raw.tokens_reasoning = cell.tokenUsage.reasoning\n }\n if (cell.tokenUsage.cached !== undefined) raw.tokens_cached = cell.tokenUsage.cached\n if (cell.tokenUsage.cacheWrite !== undefined) {\n raw.tokens_cache_write = cell.tokenUsage.cacheWrite\n }\n if (costUsd !== null && costUsd > 0) {\n raw.tokens_per_dollar = (cell.tokenUsage.input + cell.tokenUsage.output) / costUsd\n }\n if (costUsd !== null && quality.score !== undefined && quality.score > 0.01) {\n raw.cost_per_quality = costUsd / quality.score\n }\n\n const outcome: RunOutcome = {\n raw,\n ...(quality.judgeScores ? { judgeScores: quality.judgeScores } : {}),\n }\n if (quality.score !== undefined) {\n if (options.splitTag === 'holdout') outcome.holdoutScore = quality.score\n else outcome.searchScore = quality.score\n }\n\n return validateRunRecord({\n runId: options.runId,\n experimentId: options.experimentId,\n candidateId: options.candidateId,\n seed: options.seed ?? cell.seed,\n model: options.model,\n promptHash: options.promptHash,\n configHash: options.configHash,\n commitSha: options.commitSha,\n wallMs: cell.durationMs,\n costUsd,\n costProvenance,\n tokenUsage: { ...cell.tokenUsage },\n terminalOutcome: execution.terminalOutcome,\n ...(execution.terminalFailureReason\n ? { terminalFailureReason: execution.terminalFailureReason }\n : {}),\n outcome,\n splitTag: options.splitTag,\n scenarioId: options.scenarioId ?? cell.scenarioId,\n ...(options.agentProfile ? { agentProfile: options.agentProfile } : {}),\n })\n}\n\nexport function campaignCellExecutionEvidence<TArtifact>(\n cell: CampaignCellResult<TArtifact>,\n): CampaignCellExecutionEvidence {\n if (cell.errorStage === 'dispatch') {\n return {\n terminalOutcome: 'failed',\n executionErrorCount: 1,\n ...(cell.error ? { terminalFailureReason: cell.error } : {}),\n }\n }\n if (cell.errorStage === 'judge') {\n return {\n terminalOutcome: 'succeeded',\n executionErrorCount: 0,\n judgeErrorCount: 1,\n }\n }\n if (!cell.error) {\n return { terminalOutcome: 'succeeded', executionErrorCount: 0 }\n }\n return {\n terminalOutcome: 'unknown',\n unclassifiedErrorCount: 1,\n }\n}\n\n/\n Produce the only task-quality view used by campaign aggregates and exports.\n \n Successful judge results remain available for diagnosis after another judge\n * fails, but a task score exists only for an error-free cell whose reported\n * judge values are all finite.\n /\nexport function projectCampaignCellQuality<TArtifact>(\n cell: CampaignCellResult<TArtifact>,\n): CampaignCellQualityProjection {\n if (cell.errorStage === 'dispatch') {\n return { successfulJudgeScores: {}, failedJudges: [], raw: {} }\n }\n\n const perJudge: Record<string, Record<string, number>> = {}\n const successfulJudgeScores: Record<string, JudgeScore> = {}\n const dimensionValues = new Map<string, number[]>()\n const composites: number[] = []\n const notes: string[] = []\n const failedJudges = new Set<string>(\n cell.errorStage === 'judge' ? [cell.errorJudge ?? 'unknown-judge'] : [],\n )\n const raw: Record<string, number> = {}\n\n for (const [judgeName, score] of Object.entries(cell.judgeScores)) {\n const finiteDimensions = Object.values(score.dimensions).every(Number.isFinite)\n if (score.failed \|\| !Number.isFinite(score.composite) \|\| !finiteDimensions) {\n failedJudges.add(judgeName)\n continue\n }\n\n composites.push(score.composite)\n successfulJudgeScores[judgeName] = score\n const dimensions = { ...score.dimensions }\n perJudge[judgeName] = dimensions\n for (const [dimension, value] of Object.entries(dimensions)) {\n raw[`${judgeName}.${dimension}`] = value\n const values = dimensionValues.get(dimension) ?? []\n values.push(value)\n dimensionValues.set(dimension, values)\n }\n if (score.notes) notes.push(`${judgeName}: ${score.notes}`)\n for (const failedJudge of score.failedJudges ?? []) {\n failedJudges.add(`${judgeName}/${failedJudge}`)\n }\n }\n\n if (failedJudges.size > 0) raw.judge_error_count = failedJudges.size\n const sortedFailedJudges = [...failedJudges].sort()\n if (composites.length === 0) {\n return {\n successfulJudgeScores,\n failedJudges: sortedFailedJudges,\n raw,\n }\n }\n\n const composite = mean(composites)\n const perDimMean = Object.fromEntries(\n [...dimensionValues.entries()].map(([dimension, values]) => [dimension, mean(values)]),\n )\n const complete =\n cell.error === undefined && cell.errorStage === undefined && failedJudges.size === 0\n if (complete) raw.composite = composite\n\n return {\n ...(complete ? { score: composite } : {}),\n raw,\n successfulJudgeScores,\n failedJudges: sortedFailedJudges,\n judgeScores: {\n perJudge,\n perDimMean,\n composite,\n ...(sortedFailedJudges.length > 0 ? { failedJudges: sortedFailedJudges } : {}),\n ...(notes.length > 0 ? { notes: notes.join(' \| ') } : {}),\n },\n }\n}\n\n/* Read the canonical task score without recomputing cell quality. /\nexport function campaignCellTaskScore<TArtifact>(\n cell: CampaignCellResult<TArtifact>,\n): number \| undefined {\n return projectCampaignCellQuality(cell).score\n}\n\n/* Read canonical successful judge dimensions without recomputing cell quality. /\nexport function campaignCellJudgeDimensions<TArtifact>(\n cell: CampaignCellResult<TArtifact>,\n): Record<string, Record<string, number>> {\n return projectCampaignCellQuality(cell).judgeScores?.perJudge ?? {}\n}\n\nfunction finiteMetrics(metrics: Record<string, number> \| undefined): Record<string, number> {\n const finite: Record<string, number> = {}\n for (const [key, value] of Object.entries(metrics ?? {})) {\n if (Number.isFinite(value)) finite[key] = value\n }\n return finite\n}\n\nfunction mean(values: number[]): number {\n return values.reduce((sum, value) => sum + value, 0) / values.length\n}\n","/\n Verifiable reward channel.\n \n For RL on coding / math / theorem-proving / structured-output tasks, the\n * reward signal is decidable — a test passes or fails, a proof checks or\n * doesn't, an output validates against a schema or doesn't. These rewards\n * are dramatically more useful for RL training than LLM-judge scores\n * because they don't drift, can't be Goodhart-gamed by the policy in the\n * same way, and don't require a separate calibration loop.\n \n The `MultiLayerVerifier` already produces this signal — it just doesn't\n * surface it in a shape that's clean enough for RL training. This module\n * wraps the verifier output so consumers can:\n \n 1. Extract a clean `VerifiableReward` from a `VerificationReport`\n * 2. Distinguish deterministic rewards (compile, test, schema) from\n * probabilistic rewards (judge) so they can be weighted differently\n * in the RL training step\n * 3. Filter `RunRecord[]` to only those with a verifiable reward,\n * producing the clean training set that DeepSeek-R1-style GRPO and\n * AlphaProof-style search both depend on\n \n Why this matters: every credible 2025-2026 frontier RL result on coding\n * agents leans on verifiable reward (DeepSeek-R1 GRPO on test pass-rate,\n * o-series RL on math/code, AlphaProof on Lean kernel checking). Mixing\n * judge scores into the reward signal poisons the gradient. This module\n * is the seam.\n /\n\nimport type { LayerResult, VerificationReport } from '../multi-layer-verifier'\nimport { isRealnessGated, observedScore, trainingScore } from '../rollout/reward'\nimport type { RunRecord } from '../run-record'\n\nexport type VerifiableRewardSource =\n \| 'compile' // typecheck / build / lint passed\n \| 'test' // unit / integration test pass-rate\n \| 'schema' // structured output validates\n \| 'sandbox' // sandbox exec exit code\n \| 'judge' // LLM judge — probabilistic, included for completeness\n \| 'composite' // weighted blend across multiple of the above\n\nexport interface VerifiableReward {\n /* Scalar in [0, 1]. The RL training signal. /\n value: number\n /* What produced the reward — different sources have different determinism. /\n source: VerifiableRewardSource\n /\n Determinism class. `'deterministic'` rewards are repeatable byte-for-byte\n * given the same inputs (compile, test, schema validation, sandbox exit code).\n * `'probabilistic'` rewards depend on a stochastic component (LLM judge).\n * Mixing these in the same training batch without separation is a known\n * footgun in production RLHF pipelines.\n /\n determinism: 'deterministic' \| 'probabilistic'\n /\n Confidence in the reward value. For deterministic sources this is 1.0\n * (the bit either flipped or didn't). For judge sources this is the\n * judge-reported confidence or — when missing — a calibrated prior.\n /\n confidence: number\n /* The layer / judge id that produced the signal, for provenance. /\n origin: string\n /\n Per-source contribution to `value`, keyed by layer/judge id. Single-source\n * rewards carry one entry (`{ [origin]: value }`); composite rewards carry\n * every contributing layer's score — the anti-scalar-collapse surface RL\n * consumers weight per-source instead of trusting one blended number.\n /\n components: Record<string, number>\n /\n The run carries `outcome.realness.gated` — the authenticity gate flagged\n * its success signal as faked.\n \n With the gate applied (the default) `value` and every `components` entry\n * are 0 on such a run; with `applyRealnessGate: false` the observed numbers\n * come back untouched and this flag is the only marker that they are not to\n * be trusted. Either way it distinguishes \"measured a genuine failure\" from\n * \"claimed a success we refuse to believe\", which a bare 0 cannot.\n /\n realnessGated?: boolean\n /\n Whether an authenticity screen COULD run on this reward at all — the same\n * distinction `RolloutOutcome.realness_screened` draws, for the same reason.\n \n `false` on every reward from `extractVerifiableReward`, because a\n * `VerificationReport` carries layer scores and nothing else: there is no\n * `outcome.realness` to consult, so no gate has run, and `realnessGated`\n * being absent there means \"unknown\", NOT \"clean\". Absent on the\n * `RunRecord` path when the record itself carries no realness verdict.\n \n This matters most exactly where it is easiest to miss: a report whose\n * deterministic layers all passed yields `determinism: 'deterministic'`,\n * `confidence: 1` — the highest-credibility reward this module can emit —\n * and a stubbed integration reporting green is precisely what a gamed run\n * looks like. Consumers driving training off this shape must screen the run\n * themselves; the flag is what tells them nobody has.\n /\n realnessScreened?: boolean\n}\n\nexport interface VerifiableRewardExtractionOptions {\n /\n Which layers count as deterministic-reward sources. The verifier doesn't\n * tag layers as \"this is verifiable\"; the caller declares it via this list\n * (or via the layer name → source mapping). Default treats common names\n * (`install`, `typecheck`, `build`, `lint`, `test`, `compile`, `schema`,\n * `sandbox`) as deterministic.\n /\n deterministicLayers?: string[]\n /\n Map layer name → reward source. Defaults to a sensible string-match.\n /\n sourceFor?: (layerName: string) => VerifiableRewardSource\n /\n Whether to fall back to a probabilistic (judge) reward when no\n * deterministic layer produced a numeric score. Default `true`. Set to\n * `false` for \"deterministic-only\" training pipelines that should\n * discard runs without a verifiable signal.\n /\n fallbackToJudge?: boolean\n /\n Default confidence for probabilistic (judge) rewards when the judge\n * doesn't report one. Default `0.7`.\n /\n judgeConfidenceFloor?: number\n /\n Whether the anti-Goodhart realness gate applies. Default `true`, and the\n * default is the one every training path must keep.\n \n Set `false` ONLY for detection and analysis. `rl/reward-hacking.ts` does,\n * for the same reason it reads `observedScore` for its proxy: it measures the\n * DIVERGENCE between the judge signal and the deterministic one, and a\n * deterministic reward that another gate already forced to 0 manufactures\n * exactly that divergence on exactly the gamed population. The detector would\n * then be re-reporting a verdict it was supposed to reach independently.\n /\n applyRealnessGate?: boolean\n}\n\nconst DEFAULT_DETERMINISTIC_LAYERS = new Set([\n 'install',\n 'typecheck',\n 'build',\n 'lint',\n 'test',\n 'compile',\n 'schema',\n 'sandbox',\n 'unit_tests',\n 'integration_tests',\n])\n\nconst DEFAULT_SOURCE_FOR = (name: string): VerifiableRewardSource => {\n const lower = name.toLowerCase()\n if (lower.includes('test')) return 'test'\n if (\n lower.includes('compile') \|\|\n lower.includes('build') \|\|\n lower.includes('typecheck') \|\|\n lower.includes('lint')\n )\n return 'compile'\n if (lower.includes('schema')) return 'schema'\n if (lower.includes('sandbox')) return 'sandbox'\n if (lower.includes('judge') \|\| lower.includes('semantic')) return 'judge'\n return 'composite'\n}\n\n/\n Extract a `VerifiableReward` from a `VerificationReport`.\n \n Strategy: prefer the deterministic layers (in order: test → compile →\n * schema → sandbox), fall back to the judge layer if `fallbackToJudge` is\n * true, return `null` if no signal qualifies. When multiple deterministic\n * layers contribute, return a `'composite'` source with a weighted blend.\n \n NO realness gate is applied and none can be: a `VerificationReport` carries\n * layer scores and nothing about whether the run faked them — `realness` lives\n * on the `RunRecord`. Use `extractVerifiableRewardsFromRecords` for anything\n * that becomes training data; this signature is for scoring a report in hand.\n /\nexport function extractVerifiableReward(\n report: VerificationReport,\n opts: VerifiableRewardExtractionOptions = {},\n): VerifiableReward \| null {\n const deterministicSet = new Set(opts.deterministicLayers ?? [...DEFAULT_DETERMINISTIC_LAYERS])\n const sourceFor = opts.sourceFor ?? DEFAULT_SOURCE_FOR\n const fallbackToJudge = opts.fallbackToJudge ?? true\n const judgeFloor = opts.judgeConfidenceFloor ?? 0.7\n\n const deterministic = report.layers.filter(\n (layer) => deterministicSet.has(layer.layer) && isMeasuredLayer(layer),\n )\n\n if (deterministic.length === 1) {\n const layer = deterministic[0]!\n const value = clamp01(layer.score!)\n return {\n value,\n source: sourceFor(layer.layer),\n determinism: 'deterministic',\n confidence: 1,\n origin: layer.layer,\n components: { [layer.layer]: value },\n realnessScreened: false,\n }\n }\n\n if (deterministic.length > 1) {\n // Composite: weighted blend by `Layer.weight` if present, else equal.\n let num = 0\n let denom = 0\n const components: Record<string, number> = {}\n for (const l of deterministic) {\n const w = (l.detail?.weight as number \| undefined) ?? 1\n num += w (l.score ?? 0)\n denom += w\n components[l.layer] = l.score!\n }\n return {\n value: denom === 0 ? 0 : clamp01(num / denom),\n source: 'composite',\n determinism: 'deterministic',\n confidence: 1,\n origin: deterministic.map((l) => l.layer).join('+'),\n components,\n realnessScreened: false,\n }\n }\n\n if (!fallbackToJudge) return null\n\n const judge =\n report.layers.find((layer) => isMeasuredLayer(layer) && sourceFor(layer.layer) === 'judge') ??\n report.layers.find(isMeasuredLayer)\n\n if (!judge) return null\n\n const confFromDetail = judge.detail?.confidence as number \| undefined\n const judgeValue = clamp01(judge.score!)\n return {\n value: judgeValue,\n source: 'judge',\n determinism: 'probabilistic',\n confidence: typeof confFromDetail === 'number' ? confFromDetail : judgeFloor,\n origin: judge.layer,\n components: { [judge.layer]: judgeValue },\n realnessScreened: false,\n }\n}\n\nfunction isMeasuredLayer(\n layer: LayerResult,\n): layer is LayerResult & { status: 'pass' \| 'fail'; score: number } {\n return (\n (layer.status === 'pass' \|\| layer.status === 'fail') &&\n typeof layer.score === 'number' &&\n Number.isFinite(layer.score) &&\n layer.score >= 0 &&\n layer.score <= 1\n )\n}\n\n/*\n Extract verifiable rewards from `RunRecord[]` produced via the\n * `verificationReportToRunRecord` adapter (which encodes per-layer scores\n * in `outcome.raw['layer.<name>']`). For records that don't carry layer\n * scores, returns `null` for that record.\n \n This is the canonical bridge from \"campaign-shaped artifacts\" to\n * \"RL-training-ready reward signals\": every record that has a clean\n * verifiable reward becomes a training datum, every record that doesn't\n * gets filtered out (or kept with `'probabilistic'` determinism for\n * separate downstream handling).\n \n The realness gate applies to EVERY channel here, and to the deterministic one\n * MOST. It is tempting to reason that a decidable signal cannot be gamed, so\n * the gate is redundant on it — that reasoning is backwards. `realness.gated`\n * means the run's success signal was FAKED, and a test suite reporting green on\n * a stubbed integration is precisely what that looks like: the deterministic\n * layer is the thing that got faked. Exporting it ungated hands a trainer the\n * highest-credibility reward the module can emit (`determinism: 'deterministic'`,\n * `confidence: 1`) for the one population the gate exists to catch. Pass\n * `applyRealnessGate: false` only to look at the ungated numbers for detection.\n /\nexport function extractVerifiableRewardsFromRecords(\n runs: RunRecord[],\n opts: VerifiableRewardExtractionOptions = {},\n): Array<{ runId: string; reward: VerifiableReward \| null }> {\n const sourceFor = opts.sourceFor ?? DEFAULT_SOURCE_FOR\n const deterministicSet = new Set(opts.deterministicLayers ?? [...DEFAULT_DETERMINISTIC_LAYERS])\n const fallbackToJudge = opts.fallbackToJudge ?? true\n const judgeFloor = opts.judgeConfidenceFloor ?? 0.7\n const applyGate = opts.applyRealnessGate ?? true\n\n return runs.map((run) => {\n const flagged = isRealnessGated(run)\n // Present only when the record carries an actual realness verdict. Absent\n // is the honest \"unknown\"; `false` is reserved for a producer that\n // declares it HAS no screen, which is the report-shaped path above.\n const screened = run.outcome.realness === undefined ? {} : ({ realnessScreened: true } as const)\n // Zeroed with `value`, never left at the measured number: `components`\n // exists so an RL consumer can re-weight per source, and a raw layer score\n // surviving there would let that re-weighting reconstruct the very reward\n // the gate just refused. The measured layer scores stay on\n // `run.outcome.raw['layer.']`, which is where analysis reads them.\n const gate = (value: number): number => (applyGate && flagged ? 0 : value)\n // Recover per-layer scores from outcome.raw['layer.<name>']\n const layerScores: Array<{ name: string; score: number }> = []\n for (const [k, v] of Object.entries(run.outcome.raw)) {\n if (\n k.startsWith('layer.') &&\n !k.includes('.', 6) &&\n typeof v === 'number' &&\n Number.isFinite(v)\n ) {\n layerScores.push({ name: k.slice('layer.'.length), score: v })\n }\n }\n const det = layerScores.filter((l) => deterministicSet.has(l.name))\n\n if (det.length === 1) {\n const layer = det[0]!\n const value = gate(clamp01(layer.score))\n return {\n runId: run.runId,\n reward: {\n value,\n source: sourceFor(layer.name),\n determinism: 'deterministic',\n confidence: 1,\n origin: layer.name,\n components: { [layer.name]: value },\n realnessGated: flagged,\n ...screened,\n },\n }\n }\n if (det.length > 1) {\n const value = gate(clamp01(det.reduce((s, l) => s + l.score, 0) / det.length))\n // Same clamp as the headline value: a producer writing layer.score 1.5\n // into outcome.raw must not propagate 1.5 through a component either.\n const components: Record<string, number> = Object.fromEntries(\n det.map((l) => [l.name, gate(clamp01(l.score))]),\n )\n return {\n runId: run.runId,\n reward: {\n value,\n source: 'composite',\n determinism: 'deterministic',\n confidence: 1,\n origin: det.map((l) => l.name).join('+'),\n components,\n realnessGated: flagged,\n ...screened,\n },\n }\n }\n if (!fallbackToJudge) return { runId: run.runId, reward: null }\n\n // Probabilistic fallback: the run's primary score. `trainingScore` already\n // carries the gate, so a gamed run falls to 0 rather than earning the\n // judge's number; `observedScore` is the ungated reader the detection\n // opt-out asks for. Either way an unscored run stays a labeled gap\n // (`reward: null`), never a fabricated 0.\n const primary = applyGate ? trainingScore(run) : observedScore(run)\n if (typeof primary !== 'number' \|\| !Number.isFinite(primary)) {\n return { runId: run.runId, reward: null }\n }\n const primaryValue = clamp01(primary)\n return {\n runId: run.runId,\n reward: {\n value: primaryValue,\n source: 'judge',\n determinism: 'probabilistic',\n confidence: judgeFloor,\n origin: 'run.outcome.score',\n components: { 'run.outcome.score': primaryValue },\n realnessGated: flagged,\n ...screened,\n },\n }\n })\n}\n\n/*\n Filter `RunRecord[]` to those with deterministic verifiable rewards.\n \n A realness-gated run is KEPT, at reward 0 with `realnessGated: true` — the\n * same rule GRPO uses on a gated line. 0 is the honest label for a faked\n * success and is usable signal, whereas dropping the run would move a group\n * baseline without saying so. (SFT differs: there every row is a target to\n * imitate, so a gated row is removed outright.)\n /\nexport function filterDeterministicallyRewarded(\n runs: RunRecord[],\n opts: VerifiableRewardExtractionOptions = {},\n): Array<{ run: RunRecord; reward: VerifiableReward }> {\n const rewarded = extractVerifiableRewardsFromRecords(runs, { ...opts, fallbackToJudge: false })\n const out: Array<{ run: RunRecord; reward: VerifiableReward }> = []\n for (let i = 0; i < runs.length; i++) {\n const r = rewarded[i]!\n if (r.reward && r.reward.determinism === 'deterministic') {\n out.push({ run: runs[i]!, reward: r.reward })\n }\n }\n return out\n}\n\nfunction clamp01(x: number): number {\n if (!Number.isFinite(x)) return 0\n return Math.max(0, Math.min(1, x))\n}\n","/\n Reward hacking / Goodhart detection.\n \n Goodhart's Law says: when a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be\n * a good measure. In RLHF and agentic-RL settings this is the dominant\n * failure mode — the policy learns to produce outputs that score well on\n * the proxy reward (judge, rubric, test pass-rate) without producing\n * the underlying capability the proxy was meant to track.\n \n Krakovna et al. (2020, \"Specification Gaming Examples in AI\") and the\n * subsequent RLHF reward-hacking literature (Skalse et al. 2022, Kim et al.\n * 2023) converge on a few diagnostic signatures:\n \n 1. Reward divergence: the proxy reward grows while the held-out\n * ground-truth signal stagnates or drops. Predictive validity over\n * time captures this.\n * 2. Distributional shift in outputs: after RL, the policy produces\n * outputs that no longer match the reference distribution — usually\n * because it found a high-reward attractor that's degenerate (e.g.\n * one-token responses, repetition, formatting tricks).\n * 3. Disagreement between independent rewards: if you train on\n * reward A and a held-out independent reward B drops sharply, you're\n * probably hacking A.\n * 4. Calibration drift: the verifiable / deterministic component of\n * the reward is stable; the probabilistic / judge component drifts up\n * while the deterministic component doesn't. The judge is being\n * gamed.\n \n This module ships explicit detectors for all four signatures, plus a\n * combined verdict. The output is diagnostic — actionable signals,\n * not autoreject — because each signature has known false positives\n * (e.g., a policy that genuinely improves can show distributional shift).\n \n Differs from `rubricPredictiveValidity` (which is a standing check on\n * whether rubrics correlate with deployment outcomes) — this is a\n * temporal check on whether the reward-vs-truth gap is widening over\n time during a training run.\n /\n\nimport { observedScore } from '../rollout/reward'\nimport type { RunRecord } from '../run-record'\nimport { pearsonR } from '../statistics'\nimport {\n filterDeterministicallyRewarded,\n type VerifiableRewardExtractionOptions,\n} from './verifiable-reward'\n\nexport type RewardHackingSignal =\n \| 'reward_divergence'\n \| 'distribution_shift'\n \| 'reward_disagreement'\n \| 'judge_drift'\n\nexport interface RewardHackingFinding {\n signal: RewardHackingSignal\n /** Severity in [0, 1]. >0.5 = strong signal. /\n severity: number\n message: string\n /* Numeric evidence the consumer can render. /\n detail: Record<string, number>\n}\n\nexport interface RewardHackingReport {\n findings: RewardHackingFinding[]\n /* Signals with enough usable observations to produce a finding. /\n evaluatedSignals: RewardHackingSignal[]\n /\n Composite verdict. `'insufficient_evidence'` when fewer than four scored\n * runs exist; otherwise `'clean'` if every signal severity < 0.3,\n * `'suspect'` if at least one ≥ 0.3 but none ≥ 0.6, and `'gaming'` if any ≥ 0.6.\n /\n verdict: 'insufficient_evidence' \| 'clean' \| 'suspect' \| 'gaming'\n /* Rationale for the verdict, ready to paste into an audit log. /\n rationale: string[]\n /* Number of runs with a usable proxy reward. /\n n: number\n}\n\nexport interface DetectRewardHackingInput {\n /\n Run records ordered by recency (oldest first). The detector segments\n * them into prefix/suffix windows to compute \"did the gap widen.\"\n /\n runs: RunRecord[]\n /\n The metric the policy was trained to optimize. Should be present on\n * `outcome.raw` or `outcome.holdoutScore`. Default reads `outcome.holdoutScore`.\n /\n proxyOf?: (run: RunRecord) => number \| null\n /\n The held-out ground-truth metric. For RL on coding, this is typically\n * test pass-rate. For RLHF, it's downstream task performance or human\n * preference. For knowledge tasks, it's an independently-graded score.\n /\n truthOf?: (run: RunRecord) => number \| null\n /\n Independent secondary reward. Used for the `reward_disagreement`\n * signal. Default uses the verifiable reward extractor (deterministic\n * sources only).\n /\n secondaryRewardOf?: (run: RunRecord) => number \| null\n /\n Window size — how many of the most recent runs count as the \"after\"\n * cohort. Default min(50, half the runs).\n /\n windowSize?: number\n /\n Severity threshold to flag a signal. Default 0.3 (suspect) and 0.6\n * (gaming).\n /\n thresholds?: { suspect?: number; gaming?: number }\n /\n Verifiable-reward options used for the secondary-reward fallback.\n /\n verifiableRewardOptions?: VerifiableRewardExtractionOptions\n}\n\nconst DEFAULT_PROXY = (r: RunRecord): number \| null => {\n // DELIBERATELY UNGATED. This is the proxy reward the detector tests for\n // Goodharting, and gated runs are exactly the gamed population. Forcing them\n // to 0 would collapse the proxy toward the deterministic secondary signal —\n // `reward_disagreement`'s correlation would rise, `judge_drift`'s gap would\n // shrink, and `reward_divergence`'s proxy-up/truth-flat fingerprint would be\n // erased — so the detector would report \"clean\" on the very runs it exists to\n // catch. `null` (never 0) is also load-bearing: it sets the n-denominator via\n // the filter below.\n const v = observedScore(r)\n return typeof v === 'number' && Number.isFinite(v) ? v : null\n}\n\nexport function detectRewardHacking(input: DetectRewardHackingInput): RewardHackingReport {\n const proxyOf = input.proxyOf ?? DEFAULT_PROXY\n const truthOf = input.truthOf\n const sus = input.thresholds?.suspect ?? 0.3\n const gam = input.thresholds?.gaming ?? 0.6\n\n const runs = input.runs.filter((run) => finiteNumber(proxyOf(run)))\n const n = runs.length\n if (n < 4) {\n return {\n findings: [],\n evaluatedSignals: [],\n verdict: 'insufficient_evidence',\n n,\n rationale: [`fewer than 4 runs with proxy reward (n=${n}); insufficient evidence`],\n }\n }\n const windowSize = Math.max(1, input.windowSize ?? Math.min(50, Math.floor(n / 2)))\n const before = runs.slice(0, n - windowSize)\n const after = runs.slice(n - windowSize)\n\n const findings: RewardHackingFinding[] = []\n\n // ── Signal 1: reward divergence (proxy ↑ while truth flat or ↓) ──────\n if (truthOf) {\n const beforeProxy = before.map(proxyOf).filter(finiteNumber)\n const afterProxy = after.map(proxyOf).filter(finiteNumber)\n const beforeTruth = before.map(truthOf).filter(finiteNumber)\n const afterTruth = after.map(truthOf).filter(finiteNumber)\n if (\n beforeProxy.length >= 2 &&\n afterProxy.length >= 2 &&\n beforeTruth.length >= 2 &&\n afterTruth.length >= 2\n ) {\n const proxyDelta = mean(afterProxy) - mean(beforeProxy)\n const truthDelta = mean(afterTruth) - mean(beforeTruth)\n // Divergence: proxy goes up while truth goes flat or down.\n // Severity = max(0, (proxyDelta - truthDelta)) — bigger gap = bigger signal.\n const gap = Math.max(0, proxyDelta - truthDelta)\n const severity = clamp01(gap 5) // scale: 0.2 absolute gap → severity 1.0\n findings.push({\n signal: 'reward_divergence',\n severity,\n message:\n severity >= sus\n ? `proxy reward rose by ${proxyDelta.toFixed(3)} while truth changed by ${truthDelta.toFixed(3)} — potential Goodhart`\n : `proxy and truth moved together (proxy ${proxyDelta.toFixed(3)}, truth ${truthDelta.toFixed(3)})`,\n detail: {\n proxyDelta,\n truthDelta,\n gap,\n beforeN: beforeProxy.length,\n afterN: afterProxy.length,\n },\n })\n }\n }\n\n // ── Signal 2: distributional shift in outputs (KS on score distributions) ──\n {\n const beforeP = before.map(proxyOf).filter(finiteNumber)\n const afterP = after.map(proxyOf).filter(finiteNumber)\n if (beforeP.length >= 4 && afterP.length >= 4) {\n const ks = ksStatistic(beforeP, afterP)\n // KS statistic: bigger = more shift. We're agnostic about direction;\n // genuine improvement ALSO produces shift, so this signal is\n // contributory rather than load-bearing.\n const severity = clamp01(ks - 0.2)\n findings.push({\n signal: 'distribution_shift',\n severity,\n message:\n severity >= sus\n ? `KS=${ks.toFixed(3)} between before/after windows — distributional shift large`\n : `KS=${ks.toFixed(3)} between before/after windows — within-distribution drift`,\n detail: { ks, beforeN: beforeP.length, afterN: afterP.length },\n })\n }\n }\n\n // ── Signal 3: reward disagreement (proxy vs independent secondary) ────\n {\n const secondaryOf = input.secondaryRewardOf ?? defaultSecondary(input.verifiableRewardOptions)\n const aligned = runs\n .map((r) => ({ p: proxyOf(r), s: secondaryOf(r) }))\n .filter((x): x is { p: number; s: number } => finiteNumber(x.p) && finiteNumber(x.s))\n if (aligned.length >= 4) {\n const ps = aligned.map((x) => x.p)\n const ss = aligned.map((x) => x.s)\n const r = pearsonR(ps, ss)\n // Disagreement: low or negative correlation between primary proxy\n // reward and an independent secondary signal.\n const severity = clamp01(0.5 - Math.max(0, r))\n findings.push({\n signal: 'reward_disagreement',\n severity,\n message:\n severity >= sus\n ? `proxy and independent secondary reward correlate ρ=${r.toFixed(3)} — possibly hacking proxy`\n : `proxy and secondary reward correlate ρ=${r.toFixed(3)}`,\n detail: { pearson: r, n: aligned.length },\n })\n }\n }\n\n // ── Signal 4: judge drift (probabilistic up while deterministic flat) ─\n {\n // Ungated on purpose, exactly like `DEFAULT_PROXY` above. This signal is\n // the GAP between the judge reward and the deterministic one; a\n // deterministic reward another gate already forced to 0 would open that gap\n // by construction on the gamed population, so the detector would fire on\n // its own input rather than on evidence it found.\n const detRuns = filterDeterministicallyRewarded(runs, {\n ...(input.verifiableRewardOptions ?? {}),\n applyRealnessGate: false,\n })\n if (detRuns.length >= 4) {\n const detBefore = detRuns.slice(0, Math.floor(detRuns.length / 2))\n const detAfter = detRuns.slice(Math.floor(detRuns.length / 2))\n const detDelta =\n mean(detAfter.map((r) => r.reward.value)) - mean(detBefore.map((r) => r.reward.value))\n const proxyDelta =\n mean(after.map(proxyOf).filter(finiteNumber)) -\n mean(before.map(proxyOf).filter(finiteNumber))\n const driftGap = Math.max(0, proxyDelta - detDelta)\n const severity = clamp01(driftGap * 5)\n findings.push({\n signal: 'judge_drift',\n severity,\n message:\n severity >= sus\n ? `judge proxy +${proxyDelta.toFixed(3)} while deterministic reward +${detDelta.toFixed(3)} — judge drifting up without verifiable backing`\n : `judge and deterministic rewards move in step (judge ${proxyDelta.toFixed(3)}, det ${detDelta.toFixed(3)})`,\n detail: { proxyDelta, detDelta, driftGap, n: detRuns.length },\n })\n }\n }\n\n const maxSev = findings.reduce((m, f) => Math.max(m, f.severity), 0)\n if (findings.length === 0) {\n return {\n findings,\n evaluatedSignals: [],\n verdict: 'insufficient_evidence',\n rationale: [`no reward-hacking signal had enough paired evidence (n=${n})`],\n n,\n }\n }\n const verdict: RewardHackingReport['verdict'] =\n maxSev >= gam ? 'gaming' : maxSev >= sus ? 'suspect' : 'clean'\n const rationale = findings\n .filter((f) => f.severity >= sus)\n .map((f) => `${f.signal}: severity ${f.severity.toFixed(2)} — ${f.message}`)\n if (rationale.length === 0) rationale.push('no signals fired above suspect threshold')\n\n return {\n findings,\n evaluatedSignals: findings.map((finding) => finding.signal),\n verdict,\n rationale,\n n,\n }\n}\n\n// ── Helpers ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────\n\nfunction mean(xs: number[]): number {\n if (xs.length === 0) return 0\n return xs.reduce((s, x) => s + x, 0) / xs.length\n}\n\nfunction finiteNumber(value: number \| null): value is number {\n return typeof value === 'number' && Number.isFinite(value)\n}\n\nfunction clamp01(x: number): number {\n if (!Number.isFinite(x)) return 0\n return Math.max(0, Math.min(1, x))\n}\n\nfunction ksStatistic(a: number[], b: number[]): number {\n // Two-sample Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistic.\n const sortedA = [...a].sort((x, y) => x - y)\n const sortedB = [...b].sort((x, y) => x - y)\n const all = [...new Set([...sortedA, ...sortedB])].sort((x, y) => x - y)\n let max = 0\n for (const v of all) {\n const fa = sortedA.filter((x) => x <= v).length / sortedA.length\n const fb = sortedB.filter((x) => x <= v).length / sortedB.length\n max = Math.max(max, Math.abs(fa - fb))\n }\n return max\n}\n\nfunction defaultSecondary(\n verifiableOpts?: VerifiableRewardExtractionOptions,\n): (run: RunRecord) => number \| null {\n return (run: RunRecord) => {\n // Ungated for the same reason as signal 4: this is the INDEPENDENT\n // secondary reward whose correlation with the proxy is the evidence.\n // Zeroing it on gated runs would drive that correlation down mechanically.\n const filtered = filterDeterministicallyRewarded([run], {\n ...(verifiableOpts ?? {}),\n applyRealnessGate: false,\n })\n return filtered.length === 1 ? filtered[0]!.reward.value : null\n 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package/dist/rl.d.ts CHANGED Viewed

@@ -7,7 +7,7 @@ import { a as detectRewardHacking, c as VerifiableRewardSource, d as filterDeter
 import { i as InMemoryOutcomeStore, n as FileSystemOutcomeStore, o as OutcomeStore, r as FileSystemOutcomeStoreOptions, t as DeploymentOutcome } from "./outcome-store-BYHIuO0e.js";
 import { t as AdversarialMutation } from "./adversarial-smnADNFS.js";
 import { b as RolloutSplit, o as MintedRolloutLine } from "./schema-Cef2cFmb.js";
-import { _ as EvalCampaignResult, a as FailureMode, c as SteeringChange, g as EvalCampaignOptions, i as ExperimentResult, r as ExperimentPlan, s as Researcher, y as runEvalCampaign } from "./researcher-DVtruQ9U.js";
+import { _ as EvalCampaignResult, a as FailureMode, c as SteeringChange, g as EvalCampaignOptions, i as ExperimentResult, r as ExperimentPlan, s as Researcher, y as runEvalCampaign } from "./researcher-Doo95b50.js";
 import { t as InterimReleaseConfidence } from "./sequential-CYwq6Ff_.js";
 import { r as RubricPredictiveValidityReport } from "./rubric-predictive-validity-C1dCLcvb.js";
 //#region src/rl/active-curriculum.d.ts
@@ -1248,6 +1248,18 @@ interface RunRLCampaignOptions<V> extends EvalCampaignOptions<V> {
       low: number;
       high: number;
     };
+    /**
+     * Smallest acceptable `answered / dealt` fraction of paired cells, required
+     * of EVERY candidate before the interim verdict is computed at all. Default
+     * 1: every cell the comparison was dealt must carry a score on both arms.
+     *
+     * The default is 1 because `recommendation.decision` can be `promote_now`,
+     * and a recommendation computed over "the cells that happened to pair" is
+     * computed over a set the candidate selected by failing. Below this,
+     * `interimConfidence` is null and `deltaCoverage` says by how much — never a
+     * silent 0. Must be in [0, 1]; anything else throws rather than clamping.
+     */
+    minDeltaCoverage?: number;
   };
   /** Trainer-format export lookups. When provided, the orchestrator builds the corresponding rows. */
   trainerExport?: {
@@ -1256,6 +1268,29 @@ interface RunRLCampaignOptions<V> extends EvalCampaignOptions<V> {
     sft?: SftLookups;
   };
 }
+/**
+ * How much of one candidate's DEALT paired work produced a usable delta.
+ *
+ * `answered + unscoredCandidate + unscoredComparator + unmatched === dealt` — a
+ * complete, mutually exclusive partition of the (scenarioId, seed) cells the
+ * comparison was dealt, so no cell can leave the delta series without appearing
+ * in exactly one bucket.
+ */
+interface PairedDeltaCoverage {
+  candidateId: string;
+  /** Cells the comparison was dealt: a run on either arm. */
+  dealt: number;
+  /** Dealt cells scored on BOTH arms — the deltas the verdict is read from. */
+  answered: number;
+  /** Dealt cells this candidate ran and produced no usable score for. */
+  unscoredCandidate: number;
+  /** Dealt cells the comparator ran and produced no usable score for. */
+  unscoredComparator: number;
+  /** Dealt cells only one of the two arms produced a run for. */
+  unmatched: number;
+  /** `answered / dealt`, or 0 when nothing was dealt. */
+  coverage: number;
+}
 interface RLCampaignResult {
   campaign: EvalCampaignResult;
   /** Per-run verifiable reward (deterministic when available, probabilistic fallback otherwise). */
@@ -1265,8 +1300,15 @@ interface RLCampaignResult {
   }>;
   /** Preference extraction report. */
   preferences: PreferenceExtractionReport;
-  /** Anytime-valid interim verdict over the paired deltas (vs comparator). */
+  /** Anytime-valid interim verdict over the paired deltas (vs comparator).
+   *  Null when no comparator was configured, when nothing paired, or when a
+   *  candidate fell below `sequential.minDeltaCoverage` — read `deltaCoverage`
+   *  to tell those apart. */
   interimConfidence: InterimReleaseConfidence | null;
+  /** Answered / dealt paired cells per candidate — the denominator behind
+   *  `interimConfidence`, reported on EVERY path including the ones where the
+   *  verdict was refused. Empty when no comparator was configured. */
+  deltaCoverage: PairedDeltaCoverage[];
   /** Standing reward-hacking hygiene check. */
   rewardHacking: RewardHackingReport;
   /** Predictive validity, when an outcome store was supplied. */
@@ -1582,5 +1624,5 @@ interface BuildPairwiseFromCampaignInput {
 }
 declare function buildPairwiseFromCampaign(input: BuildPairwiseFromCampaignInput): PairwiseOutcome[];
 //#endregion
-export { ABSENT_CATEGORY, AdaptationCurve, AdaptationPoint, AdaptationRunner, AdapterContext, AdversarialMutation, BehaviorFeatures, BradleyTerryFit, BradleyTerryRating, BuildPairwiseFromCampaignInput, CellObservation, CompareCurvesResult, ComputeBestOfNOptions, ComputeBestOfNResult, ComputeCurve, ComputeCurveBudget, ComputeCurvePoint, ContaminationProbeInput, ContaminationProbeOptions, ContaminationProbeReport, CorpusAppendResult, CorpusRecord, CurriculumAllocation, DEFAULT_MIN_N_PER_FEATURE, DEFAULT_QUANTILE_BUCKETS, DPO_CONTEXT_REQUIREMENT, DatasetFormat, type DeploymentOutcome, DetectRewardHackingInput, DpoExportRow, DpoLineContext, DpoLookups, EasyModeOptions, EasyModeReport, EloOptions, ExtractPreferencesOptions, ExtractStepRewardsOptions, FeatureDivergence, FeatureShift, FidelityReport, FidelityVerdict, FileSystemOutcomeStore, type FileSystemOutcomeStoreOptions, GrpoExportRow, GrpoLookups, HarvestOptions, InMemoryOutcomeStore, OffPolicyContributionCounts, OffPolicyEstimate, OffPolicyOptions, OffPolicyTrajectory, type OutcomeStore, PRM_CONTEXT_REQUIREMENT, PairwiseOutcome, ParetoPointInput, PredictiveValidityResearcher, PredictiveValidityResearcherOptions, PreferenceExtractionReport, PreferenceStrategy, PreferenceTriple, PrmExportRow, PrmLineContext, PrmLookups, PrmTrainingTriple, REPRESENTATIVE_MIN_FIDELITY, RLCampaignResult, RewardHackingFinding, RewardHackingReport, RewardHackingSignal, RewardKind, RewardStats, RlDatasetBundle, RlDatasetConfig, RlDatasetManifest, RlDatasetStats, type RolloutLineContext, RunAdaptationCurveOptions, RunComputeCurveOptions, RunRLCampaignOptions, RunwiseStepSummary, STEP_REWARD_CONTEXT_REQUIREMENT, ScenarioPerturbation, ScenarioPerturbationKind, SelfConsistencyOptions, SelfConsistencyResult, SftExportRow, SftLookups, SimFidelityOptions, StepReward, StepRewardJsonlRow, StepScorer, ThompsonCurriculumOptions, TrainingLineSelectionOptions, VarianceCurriculumOptions, VerifiableReward, VerifiableRewardExtractionOptions, VerifiableRewardSource, appendToCorpus, applyEloUpdate, assertPrmTrainableLine, bestOfN, bucketLabel, buildDatasetFromCorpus, buildPairwiseFromCampaign, buildRlDataset, campaignToRunRecords, compareAdaptationCurves, datasheetToMarkdown, defaultBehaviorFeatures, detectRewardHacking, doublyRobust, easyModeCheck, extractPreferences, extractStepRewards, extractVerifiableReward, extractVerifiableRewardsFromRecords, filterDeterministicallyRewarded, firstPassK, fitBradleyTerry, injectIrrelevantClause, inverseProbabilityWeighting, jsDivergence, observationsFromRunRecords, offPolicyEstimateAll, paretoFrontier, prmTrainingPairs, quantileEdges, readCorpus, renameVariables, runAdaptationCurve, runComputeCurve, runContaminationProbe, runEvalCampaign, runRLCampaign, runwiseStepRewardSummary, selfConsistency, selfNormalizedImportanceWeighting, shuffleOrder, simFidelityReport, stepRewardsToJsonl, thompsonCurriculum, toAnthropicFormat, toDpoJsonl, toDpoRows, toGrpoJsonl, toGrpoRows, toPrmJsonl, toPrmRows, toSftJsonl, toSftRows, toTRLFormat, validateDatasetFormats, varianceBasedCurriculum, verificationReportToRunRecord };
+export { ABSENT_CATEGORY, AdaptationCurve, AdaptationPoint, AdaptationRunner, AdapterContext, AdversarialMutation, BehaviorFeatures, BradleyTerryFit, BradleyTerryRating, BuildPairwiseFromCampaignInput, CellObservation, CompareCurvesResult, ComputeBestOfNOptions, ComputeBestOfNResult, ComputeCurve, ComputeCurveBudget, ComputeCurvePoint, ContaminationProbeInput, ContaminationProbeOptions, ContaminationProbeReport, CorpusAppendResult, CorpusRecord, CurriculumAllocation, DEFAULT_MIN_N_PER_FEATURE, DEFAULT_QUANTILE_BUCKETS, DPO_CONTEXT_REQUIREMENT, DatasetFormat, type DeploymentOutcome, DetectRewardHackingInput, DpoExportRow, DpoLineContext, DpoLookups, EasyModeOptions, EasyModeReport, EloOptions, ExtractPreferencesOptions, ExtractStepRewardsOptions, FeatureDivergence, FeatureShift, FidelityReport, FidelityVerdict, FileSystemOutcomeStore, type FileSystemOutcomeStoreOptions, GrpoExportRow, GrpoLookups, HarvestOptions, InMemoryOutcomeStore, OffPolicyContributionCounts, OffPolicyEstimate, OffPolicyOptions, OffPolicyTrajectory, type OutcomeStore, PRM_CONTEXT_REQUIREMENT, PairedDeltaCoverage, PairwiseOutcome, ParetoPointInput, PredictiveValidityResearcher, PredictiveValidityResearcherOptions, PreferenceExtractionReport, PreferenceStrategy, PreferenceTriple, PrmExportRow, PrmLineContext, PrmLookups, PrmTrainingTriple, REPRESENTATIVE_MIN_FIDELITY, RLCampaignResult, RewardHackingFinding, RewardHackingReport, RewardHackingSignal, RewardKind, RewardStats, RlDatasetBundle, RlDatasetConfig, RlDatasetManifest, RlDatasetStats, type RolloutLineContext, RunAdaptationCurveOptions, RunComputeCurveOptions, RunRLCampaignOptions, RunwiseStepSummary, STEP_REWARD_CONTEXT_REQUIREMENT, ScenarioPerturbation, ScenarioPerturbationKind, SelfConsistencyOptions, SelfConsistencyResult, SftExportRow, SftLookups, SimFidelityOptions, StepReward, StepRewardJsonlRow, StepScorer, ThompsonCurriculumOptions, TrainingLineSelectionOptions, VarianceCurriculumOptions, VerifiableReward, VerifiableRewardExtractionOptions, VerifiableRewardSource, appendToCorpus, applyEloUpdate, assertPrmTrainableLine, bestOfN, bucketLabel, buildDatasetFromCorpus, buildPairwiseFromCampaign, buildRlDataset, campaignToRunRecords, compareAdaptationCurves, datasheetToMarkdown, defaultBehaviorFeatures, detectRewardHacking, doublyRobust, easyModeCheck, extractPreferences, extractStepRewards, extractVerifiableReward, extractVerifiableRewardsFromRecords, filterDeterministicallyRewarded, firstPassK, fitBradleyTerry, injectIrrelevantClause, inverseProbabilityWeighting, jsDivergence, observationsFromRunRecords, offPolicyEstimateAll, paretoFrontier, prmTrainingPairs, quantileEdges, readCorpus, renameVariables, runAdaptationCurve, runComputeCurve, runContaminationProbe, runEvalCampaign, runRLCampaign, runwiseStepRewardSummary, selfConsistency, selfNormalizedImportanceWeighting, shuffleOrder, simFidelityReport, stepRewardsToJsonl, thompsonCurriculum, toAnthropicFormat, toDpoJsonl, toDpoRows, toGrpoJsonl, toGrpoRows, toPrmJsonl, toPrmRows, toSftJsonl, toSftRows, toTRLFormat, validateDatasetFormats, varianceBasedCurriculum, verificationReportToRunRecord };
 //# sourceMappingURL=rl.d.ts.map

package/dist/rl.d.ts.map CHANGED Viewed

	@@ -1 +1 @@
1	- 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1	+ 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package/dist/rl.js CHANGED Viewed

@@ -1,15 +1,15 @@
 import { s as ValidationError } from "./errors-8YnH8WlF.js";
-import { R as wilcoxonSignedRank, o as benjaminiHochberg } from "./statistics-RwRNu2__.js";
+import { W as wilcoxonSignedRank, s as benjaminiHochberg } from "./statistics-CnGCLLqc.js";
 import { r as observedSplitScore, s as trainingScore } from "./reward-nw2xZGZG.js";
 import { o as runTaskScore } from "./run-record-BIwU2wdV.js";
 import { l as assertRewardGate } from "./schema-C6DW4ZHR.js";
 import { t as isSplitEligible } from "./exporters-q9iL-2Jf.js";
 import { t as mintRolloutRows } from "./mint-DyRUc9k6.js";
 import { a as InMemoryTraceStore } from "./integrity-BzRbCHzi.js";
-import { c as campaignCellToRunRecord, i as filterDeterministicallyRewarded, n as extractVerifiableReward, r as extractVerifiableRewardsFromRecords, t as detectRewardHacking } from "./reward-hacking-DCdRK9TY.js";
-import { t as runEvalCampaign } from "./eval-campaign-CHFxPTVl.js";
+import { c as campaignCellToRunRecord, i as filterDeterministicallyRewarded, n as extractVerifiableReward, r as extractVerifiableRewardsFromRecords, t as detectRewardHacking } from "./reward-hacking-a-kYs0-i.js";
+import { t as runEvalCampaign } from "./eval-campaign-Cc8WZJ6b.js";
 import { t as evaluateInterimReleaseConfidence } from "./sequential-Br0mAPHA.js";
-import { t as rubricPredictiveValidity } from "./rubric-predictive-validity-D6Q6n9oq.js";
+import { t as rubricPredictiveValidity } from "./rubric-predictive-validity-BJf-8ejY.js";
 import { n as thompsonCurriculum, r as varianceBasedCurriculum, t as observationsFromRunRecords } from "./active-curriculum-C4mk67HP.js";
 import { n as InMemoryOutcomeStore, t as FileSystemOutcomeStore } from "./outcome-store-ChBKlTd_.js";
 import { appendFileSync, existsSync, mkdirSync, readFileSync } from "node:fs";
@@ -1558,8 +1558,13 @@ var PredictiveValidityResearcher = class {
 					unpairedCandidateRuns: 0,
 					unpairedBaselineRuns: 0,
 					medianPairedDelta: null,
+					deltaStatistic: "median_bootstrap",
+					decidingDelta: null,
 					pairedCI: null,
 					pairedPValue: null,
+					mcnemar: null,
+					binaryScale: null,
+					tieFraction: null,
 					searchScore: null,
 					holdoutScore: null,
 					overfitGap: null,
@@ -2038,11 +2043,18 @@ async function runRLCampaign(opts) {
 		split: opts.preferences?.split ?? splitTag
 	});
 	let interimConfidence = null;
+	let deltaCoverage = [];
+	const minDeltaCoverage = opts.sequential?.minDeltaCoverage ?? 1;
+	if (!(Number.isFinite(minDeltaCoverage) && minDeltaCoverage >= 0 && minDeltaCoverage <= 1)) throw new Error(`runRLCampaign: sequential.minDeltaCoverage must be a finite fraction in [0, 1], got ${minDeltaCoverage}`);
 	if (opts.report?.comparator) {
 		const comparator = opts.report.comparator;
-		const deltaSeries = collectPairedDeltaSeries(campaign.runs, comparator);
-		if (deltaSeries.some((s) => s.deltas.length > 0)) interimConfidence = evaluateInterimReleaseConfidence({
-			deltaSeries,
+		const series = collectPairedDeltaSeries(campaign.runs, campaign.failedRuns, comparator);
+		deltaCoverage = series.map((s) => s.coverage);
+		if (series.every((s) => s.coverage.coverage >= minDeltaCoverage) && series.some((s) => s.deltas.length > 0)) interimConfidence = evaluateInterimReleaseConfidence({
+			deltaSeries: series.map(({ candidateId, deltas }) => ({
+				candidateId,
+				deltas
+			})),
 			alpha: opts.sequential?.alpha,
 			bound: opts.sequential?.bound,
 			rope: opts.sequential?.rope ?? opts.report?.rope
@@ -2066,6 +2078,7 @@ async function runRLCampaign(opts) {
 		campaign,
 		preferences,
 		interimConfidence,
+		deltaCoverage,
 		rewardHacking,
 		predictiveValidity
 	});
@@ -2074,6 +2087,7 @@ async function runRLCampaign(opts) {
 		rewardSignals,
 		preferences,
 		interimConfidence,
+		deltaCoverage,
 		rewardHacking,
 		predictiveValidity,
 		trainerRows,
@@ -2081,36 +2095,108 @@ async function runRLCampaign(opts) {
 		kind: "agent-eval-rl-campaign"
 	};
 }
-function collectPairedDeltaSeries(runs, comparator) {
-	const baseline = /* @__PURE__ */ new Map();
+/**
+* Pair on (scenarioId, seed) and count what was DEALT, not only what paired.
+*
+* Every drop below used to be silent: a comparator run with no score never
+* entered the map, a candidate run with no score was skipped, and a candidate
+* cell with no comparator at the same identity was skipped. The surviving
+* deltas then flowed into `evaluateInterimReleaseConfidence`, whose
+* `recommendation.decision` can be `promote_now` — so a candidate that scored 6
+* of 26 cells could be recommended for promotion off a series of length 6, with
+* nothing in the result saying 20 cells went dark. Same defect as the promotion
+* gates, one call frame up.
+*
+* The denominator is MEASURED: a cell counts as dealt because a run for it
+* exists on either arm. Missing scores are not imputed — the caller who knows
+* the failure value of its metric writes it onto the record.
+*/
+function collectPairedDeltaSeries(runs, failedRuns, comparator) {
+	const cellKey = (r) => `${r.scenarioId}::${r.seed}`;
+	const dealtFromFailures = /* @__PURE__ */ new Map();
+	for (const f of failedRuns) {
+		let set = dealtFromFailures.get(f.variantId);
+		if (!set) {
+			set = /* @__PURE__ */ new Set();
+			dealtFromFailures.set(f.variantId, set);
+		}
+		set.add(cellKey(f));
+	}
+	const comparatorDealt = new Set(dealtFromFailures.get(comparator) ?? []);
+	const comparatorScore = /* @__PURE__ */ new Map();
 	for (const r of runs) {
 		if (r.candidateId !== comparator) continue;
-		const sid = r.scenarioId;
+		const key = cellKey(r);
+		comparatorDealt.add(key);
 		const score = runTaskScore(r);
 		if (score === void 0) continue;
-		baseline.set(`${sid}::${r.seed}`, score);
+		comparatorScore.set(key, score);
+	}
+	const dealtByCandidate = /* @__PURE__ */ new Map();
+	const scoreByCandidate = /* @__PURE__ */ new Map();
+	for (const [variantId, cells] of dealtFromFailures) {
+		if (variantId === comparator) continue;
+		dealtByCandidate.set(variantId, new Set(cells));
 	}
-	const byCandidate = /* @__PURE__ */ new Map();
 	for (const r of runs) {
 		if (r.candidateId === comparator) continue;
-		const sid = r.scenarioId;
+		const key = cellKey(r);
+		let dealt = dealtByCandidate.get(r.candidateId);
+		if (!dealt) {
+			dealt = /* @__PURE__ */ new Set();
+			dealtByCandidate.set(r.candidateId, dealt);
+		}
+		dealt.add(key);
 		const score = runTaskScore(r);
 		if (score === void 0) continue;
-		const baseScore = baseline.get(`${sid}::${r.seed}`);
-		if (typeof baseScore !== "number") continue;
-		const arr = byCandidate.get(r.candidateId) ?? [];
-		arr.push(score - baseScore);
-		byCandidate.set(r.candidateId, arr);
+		let scored = scoreByCandidate.get(r.candidateId);
+		if (!scored) {
+			scored = /* @__PURE__ */ new Map();
+			scoreByCandidate.set(r.candidateId, scored);
+		}
+		scored.set(key, score);
 	}
-	return [...byCandidate.entries()].map(([candidateId, deltas]) => ({
-		candidateId,
-		deltas
-	}));
+	return [...dealtByCandidate.entries()].map(([candidateId, candidateDealt]) => {
+		const scored = scoreByCandidate.get(candidateId) ?? /* @__PURE__ */ new Map();
+		const deltas = [];
+		let unscoredCandidate = 0;
+		let unscoredComparator = 0;
+		let unmatched = 0;
+		for (const key of /* @__PURE__ */ new Set([...candidateDealt, ...comparatorDealt])) {
+			const onCandidate = candidateDealt.has(key);
+			const onComparator = comparatorDealt.has(key);
+			if (!onCandidate || !onComparator) {
+				unmatched += 1;
+				continue;
+			}
+			const a = scored.get(key);
+			const b = comparatorScore.get(key);
+			if (a === void 0) unscoredCandidate += 1;
+			else if (b === void 0) unscoredComparator += 1;
+			else deltas.push(a - b);
+		}
+		const dealt = (/* @__PURE__ */ new Set([...candidateDealt, ...comparatorDealt])).size;
+		return {
+			candidateId,
+			deltas,
+			coverage: {
+				candidateId,
+				dealt,
+				answered: deltas.length,
+				unscoredCandidate,
+				unscoredComparator,
+				unmatched,
+				coverage: dealt === 0 ? 0 : deltas.length / dealt
+			}
+		};
+	});
 }
 function buildSummary(args) {
 	const c = args.campaign;
 	const lines = [`${c.campaignId}: ${c.runs.length} successful runs / ${c.failedRuns.length} failed (fingerprint ${c.campaignFingerprint.slice(0, 12)}…)`, `preferences: ${args.preferences.pairs.length} (${args.preferences.strategy}, ${args.preferences.pairsBelowMargin} below margin)`];
 	if (args.interimConfidence) lines.push(`sequential verdict: ${args.interimConfidence.recommendation.decision}` + (args.interimConfidence.recommendation.candidateId ? ` ${args.interimConfidence.recommendation.candidateId}` : ""));
+	const shortfall = args.deltaCoverage.filter((c) => c.answered < c.dealt);
+	if (shortfall.length > 0) lines.push(`paired-delta coverage: ${shortfall.map((c) => `${c.candidateId} ${c.answered}/${c.dealt}`).join(", ")}${args.interimConfidence ? "" : " (sequential verdict withheld)"}`);
 	lines.push(`reward-hacking: ${args.rewardHacking.verdict} (${args.rewardHacking.findings.length} signals checked)`);
 	if (args.predictiveValidity) {
 		const top = args.predictiveValidity.ranked[0];