@tangle-network/agent-eval 0.133.1 → 0.133.3

package/dist/{rubric-predictive-validity-QG7ydk0s.js → rubric-predictive-validity-D6Q6n9oq.js}

@@ -1,4 +1,4 @@
-import { A as spearmanR, E as pearsonR } from "./statistics-DWM_AyLe.js";
+import { F as spearmanR, j as pearsonR } from "./statistics-RwRNu2__.js";
 //#region src/meta-eval/rubric-predictive-validity.ts
 async function rubricPredictiveValidity(input) {
 	const minSamples = input.minSamples ?? 8;
@@ -138,4 +138,4 @@ function makeRng(seed) {
 //#endregion
 export { rubricPredictiveValidity as t };
 
-//# sourceMappingURL=rubric-predictive-validity-QG7ydk0s.js.map
+//# sourceMappingURL=rubric-predictive-validity-D6Q6n9oq.js.map

package/dist/{rubric-predictive-validity-QG7ydk0s.js.map → rubric-predictive-validity-D6Q6n9oq.js.map}

@@ -1 +1 @@
-{"version":3,"file":"rubric-predictive-validity-QG7ydk0s.js","names":[],"sources":["../src/meta-eval/rubric-predictive-validity.ts"],"sourcesContent":["/**\n * Rubric predictive validity — does our eval rubric predict deployment\n * outcomes?\n *\n * `correlationStudy` (already in this package) joins a `TraceStore` to an\n * `OutcomeStore` and computes Pearson + Spearman + bootstrap CI for each\n * (eval-metric, outcome-metric) pair. That answers \"does X correlate with\n * Y at all.\" `rubricPredictiveValidity` is the campaign-shaped wrapper\n * around it: take a sequence of `RunRecord`s (the canonical campaign\n * artifact) and a `DeploymentOutcomeStore`, join on `runId`, return a\n * ranked verdict on every rubric whose dimension scores were captured in\n * `outcome.raw`.\n *\n * The point — quoting the methodology doc — is that **without this loop\n * every rubric is faith-based**. Once it's wired, you know which rubrics\n * have earned their promotion power and which ones are decoration.\n *\n *   const validity = await rubricPredictiveValidity({\n *     runs: lastQuarter,\n *     outcomes: shipFlagOutcomeStore,\n *     outcomeMetrics: ['revenue_lift', 'retention_30d', 'csat'],\n *     rubrics: ['anti_slop', 'semantic_concept', 'tool_recovery'],\n *   })\n *   for (const r of validity.ranked) {\n *     console.log(`${r.rubric} → ${r.bestOutcome}: ρ=${r.spearman.toFixed(2)}`)\n *   }\n *\n * The function is intentionally read-only. Use the verdict to deprecate\n * decorative rubrics, re-weight composite scores, or trigger a\n * recalibration sweep when predictive validity drops below a threshold.\n */\n\nimport type { RunRecord } from '../run-record'\nimport { pearsonR, spearmanR } from '../statistics'\nimport type { DeploymentOutcome, OutcomeStore } from './outcome-store'\n\nexport interface RubricPredictiveValidityInput {\n  /**\n   * Canonical campaign output. Each record's `outcome.raw[<rubricId>]`\n   * provides the eval score; missing keys are silently skipped per pair.\n   */\n  runs: RunRecord[]\n  outcomes: OutcomeStore\n  /**\n   * Outcome metric names to evaluate against. Each must appear in at\n   * least one `DeploymentOutcome.metrics` keyspace; pairs with too few\n   * joined samples are excluded from the result.\n   */\n  outcomeMetrics: string[]\n  /**\n   * Rubric ids to evaluate. Must appear as keys in `RunRecord.outcome.raw`.\n   * If omitted, every numeric key in `outcome.raw` across the run set is\n   * treated as a rubric.\n   */\n  rubrics?: string[]\n  /** Minimum joined-sample count before a pair is reported. Default 8. */\n  minSamples?: number\n  /** Bootstrap resamples for CI. Default 500. */\n  bootstrapResamples?: number\n  /** Random seed for the bootstrap (mulberry32). Default unset (Math.random). */\n  seed?: number\n  /**\n   * Reduction when multiple outcomes attach to one runId. Default `'latest'`\n   * (most recently captured).\n   */\n  reduction?: 'latest' | 'mean' | 'max'\n}\n\nexport interface RubricOutcomePair {\n  rubric: string\n  outcome: string\n  n: number\n  pearson: number\n  spearman: number\n  ci95: { low: number; high: number }\n  /**\n   * Verdict bucket. `load_bearing` ≥ 0.7, `informative` ≥ 0.4,\n   * `decorative` < 0.4 in absolute correlation. A negative correlation\n   * with a desired outcome is also `decorative` — actively misleading\n   * is worse than uninformative.\n   */\n  verdict: 'load_bearing' | 'informative' | 'decorative'\n}\n\nexport interface RubricRanking {\n  rubric: string\n  /** Outcome metric this rubric correlated best with. */\n  bestOutcome: string\n  spearman: number\n  pearson: number\n  n: number\n  verdict: RubricOutcomePair['verdict']\n}\n\nexport interface RubricPredictiveValidityReport {\n  pairs: RubricOutcomePair[]\n  /** Per-rubric best pair, sorted descending by |spearman|. */\n  ranked: RubricRanking[]\n  joinedSamples: number\n  skippedRuns: number\n  /** Rubrics that were declared but never produced a usable score. */\n  rubricsWithoutData: string[]\n}\n\nexport async function rubricPredictiveValidity(\n  input: RubricPredictiveValidityInput,\n): Promise<RubricPredictiveValidityReport> {\n  const minSamples = input.minSamples ?? 8\n  const reduction = input.reduction ?? 'latest'\n  const resamples = input.bootstrapResamples ?? 500\n  const rng = makeRng(input.seed)\n\n  const outcomes = await input.outcomes.list()\n  const outcomesByRun = new Map<string, DeploymentOutcome[]>()\n  for (const o of outcomes) {\n    const arr = outcomesByRun.get(o.runId) ?? []\n    arr.push(o)\n    outcomesByRun.set(o.runId, arr)\n  }\n\n  // Discover rubrics: caller-declared OR every numeric key in outcome.raw\n  // observed across runs.\n  const observedRubrics = new Set<string>()\n  for (const r of input.runs) {\n    for (const k of Object.keys(r.outcome.raw)) observedRubrics.add(k)\n  }\n  const rubrics = input.rubrics ?? [...observedRubrics]\n\n  // Collect aligned (x, y) pairs per (rubric, outcome).\n  type Bucket = { rubric: string; outcome: string; xs: number[]; ys: number[] }\n  const buckets: Bucket[] = []\n  for (const r of rubrics) {\n    for (const o of input.outcomeMetrics) {\n      buckets.push({ rubric: r, outcome: o, xs: [], ys: [] })\n    }\n  }\n\n  let joined = 0\n  let skipped = 0\n  for (const run of input.runs) {\n    const os = outcomesByRun.get(run.runId)\n    if (!os || os.length === 0) {\n      skipped++\n      continue\n    }\n    let joinedThisRun = false\n    for (const r of rubrics) {\n      const x = run.outcome.raw[r]\n      if (typeof x !== 'number' || !Number.isFinite(x)) continue\n      for (const o of input.outcomeMetrics) {\n        const values = os\n          .map((row) => row.metrics[o])\n          .filter((v): v is number => typeof v === 'number' && Number.isFinite(v))\n        if (values.length === 0) continue\n        const y = reduce(values, os, o, reduction)\n        if (y === null) continue\n        const bucket = buckets.find((b) => b.rubric === r && b.outcome === o)!\n        bucket.xs.push(x)\n        bucket.ys.push(y)\n        joinedThisRun = true\n      }\n    }\n    if (joinedThisRun) joined++\n  }\n\n  const pairs: RubricOutcomePair[] = []\n  for (const b of buckets) {\n    if (b.xs.length < minSamples) continue\n    const pearson = pearsonR(b.xs, b.ys)\n    const spearman = spearmanR(b.xs, b.ys)\n    const ci = bootstrapCi(b.xs, b.ys, resamples, rng)\n    const verdict: RubricOutcomePair['verdict'] =\n      Math.abs(spearman) >= 0.7\n        ? 'load_bearing'\n        : Math.abs(spearman) >= 0.4\n          ? 'informative'\n          : 'decorative'\n    pairs.push({\n      rubric: b.rubric,\n      outcome: b.outcome,\n      n: b.xs.length,\n      pearson,\n      spearman,\n      ci95: ci,\n      verdict,\n    })\n  }\n\n  const byRubric = new Map<string, RubricOutcomePair[]>()\n  for (const p of pairs) {\n    const arr = byRubric.get(p.rubric) ?? []\n    arr.push(p)\n    byRubric.set(p.rubric, arr)\n  }\n  const ranked: RubricRanking[] = [...byRubric.entries()]\n    .map(([rubric, ps]) => {\n      const best = ps.reduce((a, b) => (Math.abs(b.spearman) > Math.abs(a.spearman) ? b : a))\n      return {\n        rubric,\n        bestOutcome: best.outcome,\n        spearman: best.spearman,\n        pearson: best.pearson,\n        n: best.n,\n        verdict: best.verdict,\n      }\n    })\n    .sort((a, b) => Math.abs(b.spearman) - Math.abs(a.spearman))\n\n  const rubricsWithoutData = rubrics.filter((r) => !byRubric.has(r))\n\n  return { pairs, ranked, joinedSamples: joined, skippedRuns: skipped, rubricsWithoutData }\n}\n\n// ── Helpers ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────\n\nfunction reduce(\n  values: number[],\n  outcomes: DeploymentOutcome[],\n  metric: string,\n  kind: 'latest' | 'mean' | 'max',\n): number | null {\n  if (values.length === 0) return null\n  if (kind === 'mean') return values.reduce((s, v) => s + v, 0) / values.length\n  if (kind === 'max') return Math.max(...values)\n  // 'latest'\n  const sorted = [...outcomes]\n    .filter((o) => typeof o.metrics[metric] === 'number')\n    .sort((a, b) => b.capturedAt - a.capturedAt)\n  return sorted[0]?.metrics[metric] ?? null\n}\n\nfunction bootstrapCi(\n  xs: number[],\n  ys: number[],\n  iterations: number,\n  rng: () => number,\n): { low: number; high: number } {\n  const n = xs.length\n  if (n < 3) return { low: Number.NaN, high: Number.NaN }\n  const samples: number[] = []\n  for (let b = 0; b < iterations; b++) {\n    const rx = new Array<number>(n)\n    const ry = new Array<number>(n)\n    for (let i = 0; i < n; i++) {\n      const idx = Math.floor(rng() * n)\n      rx[i] = xs[idx]!\n      ry[i] = ys[idx]!\n    }\n    const r = pearsonR(rx, ry)\n    if (Number.isFinite(r)) samples.push(r)\n  }\n  samples.sort((a, b) => a - b)\n  if (samples.length === 0) return { low: Number.NaN, high: Number.NaN }\n  return {\n    low: samples[Math.floor(0.025 * samples.length)]!,\n    high: samples[Math.min(samples.length - 1, Math.floor(0.975 * samples.length))]!,\n  }\n}\n\nfunction makeRng(seed?: number): () => number {\n  if (seed === undefined) return Math.random\n  let s = seed >>> 0\n  return () => {\n    s = (s + 0x6d2b79f5) >>> 0\n    let t = s\n    t = Math.imul(t ^ (t >>> 15), t | 1)\n    t ^= t + Math.imul(t ^ (t >>> 7), t | 61)\n    return ((t ^ (t >>> 14)) >>> 0) / 4294967296\n  }\n}\n"],"mappings":";;AAwGA,eAAsB,yBACpB,OACyC;CACzC,MAAM,aAAa,MAAM,cAAc;CACvC,MAAM,YAAY,MAAM,aAAa;CACrC,MAAM,YAAY,MAAM,sBAAsB;CAC9C,MAAM,MAAM,QAAQ,MAAM,IAAI;CAE9B,MAAM,WAAW,MAAM,MAAM,SAAS,KAAK;CAC3C,MAAM,gCAAgB,IAAI,IAAiC;CAC3D,KAAK,MAAM,KAAK,UAAU;EACxB,MAAM,MAAM,cAAc,IAAI,EAAE,KAAK,KAAK,CAAC;EAC3C,IAAI,KAAK,CAAC;EACV,cAAc,IAAI,EAAE,OAAO,GAAG;CAChC;CAIA,MAAM,kCAAkB,IAAI,IAAY;CACxC,KAAK,MAAM,KAAK,MAAM,MACpB,KAAK,MAAM,KAAK,OAAO,KAAK,EAAE,QAAQ,GAAG,GAAG,gBAAgB,IAAI,CAAC;CAEnE,MAAM,UAAU,MAAM,WAAW,CAAC,GAAG,eAAe;CAIpD,MAAM,UAAoB,CAAC;CAC3B,KAAK,MAAM,KAAK,SACd,KAAK,MAAM,KAAK,MAAM,gBACpB,QAAQ,KAAK;EAAE,QAAQ;EAAG,SAAS;EAAG,IAAI,CAAC;EAAG,IAAI,CAAC;CAAE,CAAC;CAI1D,IAAI,SAAS;CACb,IAAI,UAAU;CACd,KAAK,MAAM,OAAO,MAAM,MAAM;EAC5B,MAAM,KAAK,cAAc,IAAI,IAAI,KAAK;EACtC,IAAI,CAAC,MAAM,GAAG,WAAW,GAAG;GAC1B;GACA;EACF;EACA,IAAI,gBAAgB;EACpB,KAAK,MAAM,KAAK,SAAS;GACvB,MAAM,IAAI,IAAI,QAAQ,IAAI;GAC1B,IAAI,OAAO,MAAM,YAAY,CAAC,OAAO,SAAS,CAAC,GAAG;GAClD,KAAK,MAAM,KAAK,MAAM,gBAAgB;IACpC,MAAM,SAAS,GACZ,KAAK,QAAQ,IAAI,QAAQ,EAAE,CAAC,CAC5B,QAAQ,MAAmB,OAAO,MAAM,YAAY,OAAO,SAAS,CAAC,CAAC;IACzE,IAAI,OAAO,WAAW,GAAG;IACzB,MAAM,IAAI,OAAO,QAAQ,IAAI,GAAG,SAAS;IACzC,IAAI,MAAM,MAAM;IAChB,MAAM,SAAS,QAAQ,MAAM,MAAM,EAAE,WAAW,KAAK,EAAE,YAAY,CAAC;IACpE,OAAO,GAAG,KAAK,CAAC;IAChB,OAAO,GAAG,KAAK,CAAC;IAChB,gBAAgB;GAClB;EACF;EACA,IAAI,eAAe;CACrB;CAEA,MAAM,QAA6B,CAAC;CACpC,KAAK,MAAM,KAAK,SAAS;EACvB,IAAI,EAAE,GAAG,SAAS,YAAY;EAC9B,MAAM,UAAU,SAAS,EAAE,IAAI,EAAE,EAAE;EACnC,MAAM,WAAW,UAAU,EAAE,IAAI,EAAE,EAAE;EACrC,MAAM,KAAK,YAAY,EAAE,IAAI,EAAE,IAAI,WAAW,GAAG;EACjD,MAAM,UACJ,KAAK,IAAI,QAAQ,KAAK,KAClB,iBACA,KAAK,IAAI,QAAQ,KAAK,KACpB,gBACA;EACR,MAAM,KAAK;GACT,QAAQ,EAAE;GACV,SAAS,EAAE;GACX,GAAG,EAAE,GAAG;GACR;GACA;GACA,MAAM;GACN;EACF,CAAC;CACH;CAEA,MAAM,2BAAW,IAAI,IAAiC;CACtD,KAAK,MAAM,KAAK,OAAO;EACrB,MAAM,MAAM,SAAS,IAAI,EAAE,MAAM,KAAK,CAAC;EACvC,IAAI,KAAK,CAAC;EACV,SAAS,IAAI,EAAE,QAAQ,GAAG;CAC5B;CACA,MAAM,SAA0B,CAAC,GAAG,SAAS,QAAQ,CAAC,CAAC,CACpD,KAAK,CAAC,QAAQ,QAAQ;EACrB,MAAM,OAAO,GAAG,QAAQ,GAAG,MAAO,KAAK,IAAI,EAAE,QAAQ,IAAI,KAAK,IAAI,EAAE,QAAQ,IAAI,IAAI,CAAE;EACtF,OAAO;GACL;GACA,aAAa,KAAK;GAClB,UAAU,KAAK;GACf,SAAS,KAAK;GACd,GAAG,KAAK;GACR,SAAS,KAAK;EAChB;CACF,CAAC,CAAC,CACD,MAAM,GAAG,MAAM,KAAK,IAAI,EAAE,QAAQ,IAAI,KAAK,IAAI,EAAE,QAAQ,CAAC;CAE7D,MAAM,qBAAqB,QAAQ,QAAQ,MAAM,CAAC,SAAS,IAAI,CAAC,CAAC;CAEjE,OAAO;EAAE;EAAO;EAAQ,eAAe;EAAQ,aAAa;EAAS;CAAmB;AAC1F;AAIA,SAAS,OACP,QACA,UACA,QACA,MACe;CACf,IAAI,OAAO,WAAW,GAAG,OAAO;CAChC,IAAI,SAAS,QAAQ,OAAO,OAAO,QAAQ,GAAG,MAAM,IAAI,GAAG,CAAC,IAAI,OAAO;CACvE,IAAI,SAAS,OAAO,OAAO,KAAK,IAAI,GAAG,MAAM;CAK7C,OAHe,CAAC,GAAG,QAAQ,CAAC,CACzB,QAAQ,MAAM,OAAO,EAAE,QAAQ,YAAY,QAAQ,CAAC,CACpD,MAAM,GAAG,MAAM,EAAE,aAAa,EAAE,UACvB,CAAC,CAAC,EAAE,EAAE,QAAQ,WAAW;AACvC;AAEA,SAAS,YACP,IACA,IACA,YACA,KAC+B;CAC/B,MAAM,IAAI,GAAG;CACb,IAAI,IAAI,GAAG,OAAO;EAAE,KAAK;EAAY,MAAM;CAAW;CACtD,MAAM,UAAoB,CAAC;CAC3B,KAAK,IAAI,IAAI,GAAG,IAAI,YAAY,KAAK;EACnC,MAAM,KAAK,IAAI,MAAc,CAAC;EAC9B,MAAM,KAAK,IAAI,MAAc,CAAC;EAC9B,KAAK,IAAI,IAAI,GAAG,IAAI,GAAG,KAAK;GAC1B,MAAM,MAAM,KAAK,MAAM,IAAI,IAAI,CAAC;GAChC,GAAG,KAAK,GAAG;GACX,GAAG,KAAK,GAAG;EACb;EACA,MAAM,IAAI,SAAS,IAAI,EAAE;EACzB,IAAI,OAAO,SAAS,CAAC,GAAG,QAAQ,KAAK,CAAC;CACxC;CACA,QAAQ,MAAM,GAAG,MAAM,IAAI,CAAC;CAC5B,IAAI,QAAQ,WAAW,GAAG,OAAO;EAAE,KAAK;EAAY,MAAM;CAAW;CACrE,OAAO;EACL,KAAK,QAAQ,KAAK,MAAM,OAAQ,QAAQ,MAAM;EAC9C,MAAM,QAAQ,KAAK,IAAI,QAAQ,SAAS,GAAG,KAAK,MAAM,OAAQ,QAAQ,MAAM,CAAC;CAC/E;AACF;AAEA,SAAS,QAAQ,MAA6B;CAC5C,IAAI,SAAS,KAAA,GAAW,OAAO,KAAK;CACpC,IAAI,IAAI,SAAS;CACjB,aAAa;EACX,IAAK,IAAI,eAAgB;EACzB,IAAI,IAAI;EACR,IAAI,KAAK,KAAK,IAAK,MAAM,IAAK,IAAI,CAAC;EACnC,KAAK,IAAI,KAAK,KAAK,IAAK,MAAM,GAAI,IAAI,EAAE;EACxC,SAAS,IAAK,MAAM,QAAS,KAAK;CACpC;AACF"}
+{"version":3,"file":"rubric-predictive-validity-D6Q6n9oq.js","names":[],"sources":["../src/meta-eval/rubric-predictive-validity.ts"],"sourcesContent":["/**\n * Rubric predictive validity — does our eval rubric predict deployment\n * outcomes?\n *\n * `correlationStudy` (already in this package) joins a `TraceStore` to an\n * `OutcomeStore` and computes Pearson + Spearman + bootstrap CI for each\n * (eval-metric, outcome-metric) pair. That answers \"does X correlate with\n * Y at all.\" `rubricPredictiveValidity` is the campaign-shaped wrapper\n * around it: take a sequence of `RunRecord`s (the canonical campaign\n * artifact) and a `DeploymentOutcomeStore`, join on `runId`, return a\n * ranked verdict on every rubric whose dimension scores were captured in\n * `outcome.raw`.\n *\n * The point — quoting the methodology doc — is that **without this loop\n * every rubric is faith-based**. Once it's wired, you know which rubrics\n * have earned their promotion power and which ones are decoration.\n *\n *   const validity = await rubricPredictiveValidity({\n *     runs: lastQuarter,\n *     outcomes: shipFlagOutcomeStore,\n *     outcomeMetrics: ['revenue_lift', 'retention_30d', 'csat'],\n *     rubrics: ['anti_slop', 'semantic_concept', 'tool_recovery'],\n *   })\n *   for (const r of validity.ranked) {\n *     console.log(`${r.rubric} → ${r.bestOutcome}: ρ=${r.spearman.toFixed(2)}`)\n *   }\n *\n * The function is intentionally read-only. Use the verdict to deprecate\n * decorative rubrics, re-weight composite scores, or trigger a\n * recalibration sweep when predictive validity drops below a threshold.\n */\n\nimport type { RunRecord } from '../run-record'\nimport { pearsonR, spearmanR } from '../statistics'\nimport type { DeploymentOutcome, OutcomeStore } from './outcome-store'\n\nexport interface RubricPredictiveValidityInput {\n  /**\n   * Canonical campaign output. Each record's `outcome.raw[<rubricId>]`\n   * provides the eval score; missing keys are silently skipped per pair.\n   */\n  runs: RunRecord[]\n  outcomes: OutcomeStore\n  /**\n   * Outcome metric names to evaluate against. Each must appear in at\n   * least one `DeploymentOutcome.metrics` keyspace; pairs with too few\n   * joined samples are excluded from the result.\n   */\n  outcomeMetrics: string[]\n  /**\n   * Rubric ids to evaluate. Must appear as keys in `RunRecord.outcome.raw`.\n   * If omitted, every numeric key in `outcome.raw` across the run set is\n   * treated as a rubric.\n   */\n  rubrics?: string[]\n  /** Minimum joined-sample count before a pair is reported. Default 8. */\n  minSamples?: number\n  /** Bootstrap resamples for CI. Default 500. */\n  bootstrapResamples?: number\n  /** Random seed for the bootstrap (mulberry32). Default unset (Math.random). */\n  seed?: number\n  /**\n   * Reduction when multiple outcomes attach to one runId. Default `'latest'`\n   * (most recently captured).\n   */\n  reduction?: 'latest' | 'mean' | 'max'\n}\n\nexport interface RubricOutcomePair {\n  rubric: string\n  outcome: string\n  n: number\n  pearson: number\n  spearman: number\n  ci95: { low: number; high: number }\n  /**\n   * Verdict bucket. `load_bearing` ≥ 0.7, `informative` ≥ 0.4,\n   * `decorative` < 0.4 in absolute correlation. A negative correlation\n   * with a desired outcome is also `decorative` — actively misleading\n   * is worse than uninformative.\n   */\n  verdict: 'load_bearing' | 'informative' | 'decorative'\n}\n\nexport interface RubricRanking {\n  rubric: string\n  /** Outcome metric this rubric correlated best with. */\n  bestOutcome: string\n  spearman: number\n  pearson: number\n  n: number\n  verdict: RubricOutcomePair['verdict']\n}\n\nexport interface RubricPredictiveValidityReport {\n  pairs: RubricOutcomePair[]\n  /** Per-rubric best pair, sorted descending by |spearman|. */\n  ranked: RubricRanking[]\n  joinedSamples: number\n  skippedRuns: number\n  /** Rubrics that were declared but never produced a usable score. */\n  rubricsWithoutData: string[]\n}\n\nexport async function rubricPredictiveValidity(\n  input: RubricPredictiveValidityInput,\n): Promise<RubricPredictiveValidityReport> {\n  const minSamples = input.minSamples ?? 8\n  const reduction = input.reduction ?? 'latest'\n  const resamples = input.bootstrapResamples ?? 500\n  const rng = makeRng(input.seed)\n\n  const outcomes = await input.outcomes.list()\n  const outcomesByRun = new Map<string, DeploymentOutcome[]>()\n  for (const o of outcomes) {\n    const arr = outcomesByRun.get(o.runId) ?? []\n    arr.push(o)\n    outcomesByRun.set(o.runId, arr)\n  }\n\n  // Discover rubrics: caller-declared OR every numeric key in outcome.raw\n  // observed across runs.\n  const observedRubrics = new Set<string>()\n  for (const r of input.runs) {\n    for (const k of Object.keys(r.outcome.raw)) observedRubrics.add(k)\n  }\n  const rubrics = input.rubrics ?? [...observedRubrics]\n\n  // Collect aligned (x, y) pairs per (rubric, outcome).\n  type Bucket = { rubric: string; outcome: string; xs: number[]; ys: number[] }\n  const buckets: Bucket[] = []\n  for (const r of rubrics) {\n    for (const o of input.outcomeMetrics) {\n      buckets.push({ rubric: r, outcome: o, xs: [], ys: [] })\n    }\n  }\n\n  let joined = 0\n  let skipped = 0\n  for (const run of input.runs) {\n    const os = outcomesByRun.get(run.runId)\n    if (!os || os.length === 0) {\n      skipped++\n      continue\n    }\n    let joinedThisRun = false\n    for (const r of rubrics) {\n      const x = run.outcome.raw[r]\n      if (typeof x !== 'number' || !Number.isFinite(x)) continue\n      for (const o of input.outcomeMetrics) {\n        const values = os\n          .map((row) => row.metrics[o])\n          .filter((v): v is number => typeof v === 'number' && Number.isFinite(v))\n        if (values.length === 0) continue\n        const y = reduce(values, os, o, reduction)\n        if (y === null) continue\n        const bucket = buckets.find((b) => b.rubric === r && b.outcome === o)!\n        bucket.xs.push(x)\n        bucket.ys.push(y)\n        joinedThisRun = true\n      }\n    }\n    if (joinedThisRun) joined++\n  }\n\n  const pairs: RubricOutcomePair[] = []\n  for (const b of buckets) {\n    if (b.xs.length < minSamples) continue\n    const pearson = pearsonR(b.xs, b.ys)\n    const spearman = spearmanR(b.xs, b.ys)\n    const ci = bootstrapCi(b.xs, b.ys, resamples, rng)\n    const verdict: RubricOutcomePair['verdict'] =\n      Math.abs(spearman) >= 0.7\n        ? 'load_bearing'\n        : Math.abs(spearman) >= 0.4\n          ? 'informative'\n          : 'decorative'\n    pairs.push({\n      rubric: b.rubric,\n      outcome: b.outcome,\n      n: b.xs.length,\n      pearson,\n      spearman,\n      ci95: ci,\n      verdict,\n    })\n  }\n\n  const byRubric = new Map<string, RubricOutcomePair[]>()\n  for (const p of pairs) {\n    const arr = byRubric.get(p.rubric) ?? []\n    arr.push(p)\n    byRubric.set(p.rubric, arr)\n  }\n  const ranked: RubricRanking[] = [...byRubric.entries()]\n    .map(([rubric, ps]) => {\n      const best = ps.reduce((a, b) => (Math.abs(b.spearman) > Math.abs(a.spearman) ? b : a))\n      return {\n        rubric,\n        bestOutcome: best.outcome,\n        spearman: best.spearman,\n        pearson: best.pearson,\n        n: best.n,\n        verdict: best.verdict,\n      }\n    })\n    .sort((a, b) => Math.abs(b.spearman) - Math.abs(a.spearman))\n\n  const rubricsWithoutData = rubrics.filter((r) => !byRubric.has(r))\n\n  return { pairs, ranked, joinedSamples: joined, skippedRuns: skipped, rubricsWithoutData }\n}\n\n// ── Helpers ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────\n\nfunction reduce(\n  values: number[],\n  outcomes: DeploymentOutcome[],\n  metric: string,\n  kind: 'latest' | 'mean' | 'max',\n): number | null {\n  if (values.length === 0) return null\n  if (kind === 'mean') return values.reduce((s, v) => s + v, 0) / values.length\n  if (kind === 'max') return Math.max(...values)\n  // 'latest'\n  const sorted = [...outcomes]\n    .filter((o) => typeof o.metrics[metric] === 'number')\n    .sort((a, b) => b.capturedAt - a.capturedAt)\n  return sorted[0]?.metrics[metric] ?? null\n}\n\nfunction bootstrapCi(\n  xs: number[],\n  ys: number[],\n  iterations: number,\n  rng: () => number,\n): { low: number; high: number } {\n  const n = xs.length\n  if (n < 3) return { low: Number.NaN, high: Number.NaN }\n  const samples: number[] = []\n  for (let b = 0; b < iterations; b++) {\n    const rx = new Array<number>(n)\n    const ry = new Array<number>(n)\n    for (let i = 0; i < n; i++) {\n      const idx = Math.floor(rng() * n)\n      rx[i] = xs[idx]!\n      ry[i] = ys[idx]!\n    }\n    const r = pearsonR(rx, ry)\n    if (Number.isFinite(r)) samples.push(r)\n  }\n  samples.sort((a, b) => a - b)\n  if (samples.length === 0) return { low: Number.NaN, high: Number.NaN }\n  return {\n    low: samples[Math.floor(0.025 * samples.length)]!,\n    high: samples[Math.min(samples.length - 1, Math.floor(0.975 * samples.length))]!,\n  }\n}\n\nfunction makeRng(seed?: number): () => number {\n  if (seed === undefined) return Math.random\n  let s = seed >>> 0\n  return () => {\n    s = (s + 0x6d2b79f5) >>> 0\n    let t = s\n    t = Math.imul(t ^ (t >>> 15), t | 1)\n    t ^= t + Math.imul(t ^ (t >>> 7), t | 61)\n    return ((t ^ (t >>> 14)) >>> 0) / 4294967296\n  }\n}\n"],"mappings":";;AAwGA,eAAsB,yBACpB,OACyC;CACzC,MAAM,aAAa,MAAM,cAAc;CACvC,MAAM,YAAY,MAAM,aAAa;CACrC,MAAM,YAAY,MAAM,sBAAsB;CAC9C,MAAM,MAAM,QAAQ,MAAM,IAAI;CAE9B,MAAM,WAAW,MAAM,MAAM,SAAS,KAAK;CAC3C,MAAM,gCAAgB,IAAI,IAAiC;CAC3D,KAAK,MAAM,KAAK,UAAU;EACxB,MAAM,MAAM,cAAc,IAAI,EAAE,KAAK,KAAK,CAAC;EAC3C,IAAI,KAAK,CAAC;EACV,cAAc,IAAI,EAAE,OAAO,GAAG;CAChC;CAIA,MAAM,kCAAkB,IAAI,IAAY;CACxC,KAAK,MAAM,KAAK,MAAM,MACpB,KAAK,MAAM,KAAK,OAAO,KAAK,EAAE,QAAQ,GAAG,GAAG,gBAAgB,IAAI,CAAC;CAEnE,MAAM,UAAU,MAAM,WAAW,CAAC,GAAG,eAAe;CAIpD,MAAM,UAAoB,CAAC;CAC3B,KAAK,MAAM,KAAK,SACd,KAAK,MAAM,KAAK,MAAM,gBACpB,QAAQ,KAAK;EAAE,QAAQ;EAAG,SAAS;EAAG,IAAI,CAAC;EAAG,IAAI,CAAC;CAAE,CAAC;CAI1D,IAAI,SAAS;CACb,IAAI,UAAU;CACd,KAAK,MAAM,OAAO,MAAM,MAAM;EAC5B,MAAM,KAAK,cAAc,IAAI,IAAI,KAAK;EACtC,IAAI,CAAC,MAAM,GAAG,WAAW,GAAG;GAC1B;GACA;EACF;EACA,IAAI,gBAAgB;EACpB,KAAK,MAAM,KAAK,SAAS;GACvB,MAAM,IAAI,IAAI,QAAQ,IAAI;GAC1B,IAAI,OAAO,MAAM,YAAY,CAAC,OAAO,SAAS,CAAC,GAAG;GAClD,KAAK,MAAM,KAAK,MAAM,gBAAgB;IACpC,MAAM,SAAS,GACZ,KAAK,QAAQ,IAAI,QAAQ,EAAE,CAAC,CAC5B,QAAQ,MAAmB,OAAO,MAAM,YAAY,OAAO,SAAS,CAAC,CAAC;IACzE,IAAI,OAAO,WAAW,GAAG;IACzB,MAAM,IAAI,OAAO,QAAQ,IAAI,GAAG,SAAS;IACzC,IAAI,MAAM,MAAM;IAChB,MAAM,SAAS,QAAQ,MAAM,MAAM,EAAE,WAAW,KAAK,EAAE,YAAY,CAAC;IACpE,OAAO,GAAG,KAAK,CAAC;IAChB,OAAO,GAAG,KAAK,CAAC;IAChB,gBAAgB;GAClB;EACF;EACA,IAAI,eAAe;CACrB;CAEA,MAAM,QAA6B,CAAC;CACpC,KAAK,MAAM,KAAK,SAAS;EACvB,IAAI,EAAE,GAAG,SAAS,YAAY;EAC9B,MAAM,UAAU,SAAS,EAAE,IAAI,EAAE,EAAE;EACnC,MAAM,WAAW,UAAU,EAAE,IAAI,EAAE,EAAE;EACrC,MAAM,KAAK,YAAY,EAAE,IAAI,EAAE,IAAI,WAAW,GAAG;EACjD,MAAM,UACJ,KAAK,IAAI,QAAQ,KAAK,KAClB,iBACA,KAAK,IAAI,QAAQ,KAAK,KACpB,gBACA;EACR,MAAM,KAAK;GACT,QAAQ,EAAE;GACV,SAAS,EAAE;GACX,GAAG,EAAE,GAAG;GACR;GACA;GACA,MAAM;GACN;EACF,CAAC;CACH;CAEA,MAAM,2BAAW,IAAI,IAAiC;CACtD,KAAK,MAAM,KAAK,OAAO;EACrB,MAAM,MAAM,SAAS,IAAI,EAAE,MAAM,KAAK,CAAC;EACvC,IAAI,KAAK,CAAC;EACV,SAAS,IAAI,EAAE,QAAQ,GAAG;CAC5B;CACA,MAAM,SAA0B,CAAC,GAAG,SAAS,QAAQ,CAAC,CAAC,CACpD,KAAK,CAAC,QAAQ,QAAQ;EACrB,MAAM,OAAO,GAAG,QAAQ,GAAG,MAAO,KAAK,IAAI,EAAE,QAAQ,IAAI,KAAK,IAAI,EAAE,QAAQ,IAAI,IAAI,CAAE;EACtF,OAAO;GACL;GACA,aAAa,KAAK;GAClB,UAAU,KAAK;GACf,SAAS,KAAK;GACd,GAAG,KAAK;GACR,SAAS,KAAK;EAChB;CACF,CAAC,CAAC,CACD,MAAM,GAAG,MAAM,KAAK,IAAI,EAAE,QAAQ,IAAI,KAAK,IAAI,EAAE,QAAQ,CAAC;CAE7D,MAAM,qBAAqB,QAAQ,QAAQ,MAAM,CAAC,SAAS,IAAI,CAAC,CAAC;CAEjE,OAAO;EAAE;EAAO;EAAQ,eAAe;EAAQ,aAAa;EAAS;CAAmB;AAC1F;AAIA,SAAS,OACP,QACA,UACA,QACA,MACe;CACf,IAAI,OAAO,WAAW,GAAG,OAAO;CAChC,IAAI,SAAS,QAAQ,OAAO,OAAO,QAAQ,GAAG,MAAM,IAAI,GAAG,CAAC,IAAI,OAAO;CACvE,IAAI,SAAS,OAAO,OAAO,KAAK,IAAI,GAAG,MAAM;CAK7C,OAHe,CAAC,GAAG,QAAQ,CAAC,CACzB,QAAQ,MAAM,OAAO,EAAE,QAAQ,YAAY,QAAQ,CAAC,CACpD,MAAM,GAAG,MAAM,EAAE,aAAa,EAAE,UACvB,CAAC,CAAC,EAAE,EAAE,QAAQ,WAAW;AACvC;AAEA,SAAS,YACP,IACA,IACA,YACA,KAC+B;CAC/B,MAAM,IAAI,GAAG;CACb,IAAI,IAAI,GAAG,OAAO;EAAE,KAAK;EAAY,MAAM;CAAW;CACtD,MAAM,UAAoB,CAAC;CAC3B,KAAK,IAAI,IAAI,GAAG,IAAI,YAAY,KAAK;EACnC,MAAM,KAAK,IAAI,MAAc,CAAC;EAC9B,MAAM,KAAK,IAAI,MAAc,CAAC;EAC9B,KAAK,IAAI,IAAI,GAAG,IAAI,GAAG,KAAK;GAC1B,MAAM,MAAM,KAAK,MAAM,IAAI,IAAI,CAAC;GAChC,GAAG,KAAK,GAAG;GACX,GAAG,KAAK,GAAG;EACb;EACA,MAAM,IAAI,SAAS,IAAI,EAAE;EACzB,IAAI,OAAO,SAAS,CAAC,GAAG,QAAQ,KAAK,CAAC;CACxC;CACA,QAAQ,MAAM,GAAG,MAAM,IAAI,CAAC;CAC5B,IAAI,QAAQ,WAAW,GAAG,OAAO;EAAE,KAAK;EAAY,MAAM;CAAW;CACrE,OAAO;EACL,KAAK,QAAQ,KAAK,MAAM,OAAQ,QAAQ,MAAM;EAC9C,MAAM,QAAQ,KAAK,IAAI,QAAQ,SAAS,GAAG,KAAK,MAAM,OAAQ,QAAQ,MAAM,CAAC;CAC/E;AACF;AAEA,SAAS,QAAQ,MAA6B;CAC5C,IAAI,SAAS,KAAA,GAAW,OAAO,KAAK;CACpC,IAAI,IAAI,SAAS;CACjB,aAAa;EACX,IAAK,IAAI,eAAgB;EACzB,IAAI,IAAI;EACR,IAAI,KAAK,KAAK,IAAK,MAAM,IAAK,IAAI,CAAC;EACnC,KAAK,IAAI,KAAK,KAAK,IAAK,MAAM,GAAI,IAAI,EAAE;EACxC,SAAS,IAAK,MAAM,QAAS,KAAK;CACpC;AACF"}

package/dist/{skillopt-optimization-method-CAASpcS3.d.ts → skillopt-optimization-method-Dxr8pdZd.d.ts}

@@ -4,10 +4,10 @@ import { s as TraceStore } from "./store-CT9YIIve.js";
 import { n as LlmCallMetadata } from "./llm-client-BiK4HW0u.js";
 import { A as ChatClient } from "./types-Cc3qbqzj.js";
 import { C as JudgeDimension, H as SurfaceProposer, N as ParetoParent, R as Scenario, S as JudgeConfig, _ as GateDecision, a as CampaignResult, b as GenerationRecord, c as CampaignTraceWriter, d as DispatchContext, f as DispatchFn, g as GateContribution, h as GateContext, i as CampaignCostMeter, j as MutableSurface, k as LabeledScenarioStore, o as CampaignScenarioIdentity, p as Gate, r as CampaignCellResult, v as GateResult, y as GenerationCandidate } from "./types-BokuXvOG.js";
-import { f as PairedBootstrapResult } from "./statistics-DbvkkDPa.js";
+import { _ as PairedBootstrapResult } from "./statistics-D_4Snl-5.js";
 import { a as DatasetScenario, t as Dataset } from "./dataset-BvtnC8Dc.js";
 import { t as DetectRewardHackingInput } from "./reward-hacking-D-QqXvg-.js";
-import { g as TraceSpanEvent, t as HostedClient } from "./client-D4F9hdzR.js";
+import { g as TraceSpanEvent, t as HostedClient } from "./client-Du7B81wW.js";
 import { z } from "zod";
 //#region src/llm-judge.d.ts
 /** A rubric dimension as a bare key or the full `{ key, description }` shape. A
@@ -831,8 +831,8 @@ interface DefaultProductionGateOptions {
   /** Fixed bootstrap seed for a deterministic verdict. Default 1337. */
   bootstrapSeed?: number;
   /** Minimum paired holdout observations (scenarios × reps) before a
-   *  significance claim is allowed; below it the gate HOLDS with `few_runs`
-   *  rather than reading a degenerate CI. Default 3. */
+   *  significance claim is allowed. The exact small-sample test may require
+   *  more observations at the selected confidence. Default 3. */
   minProductiveRuns?: number;
   /** Ship statistic for the held-out significance test. Default `'mean'`
    *  (tie-robust — see `heldoutSignificance`). Pass `'median'` for
@@ -880,7 +880,9 @@ interface HeldOutGateOptions<TScenario extends Scenario = Scenario> {
   deltaThreshold?: number;
   /** Bootstrap CI confidence. Default 0.95. */
   confidence?: number;
-  /** Minimum paired holdout observations to claim significance. Default 3. */
+  /** Minimum paired holdout observations to claim significance. The exact
+   *  small-sample test may require more observations at the selected
+   *  confidence. Default 3. */
   minProductiveRuns?: number;
   /** Bootstrap resamples. Default 2000. */
   resamples?: number;
@@ -1084,6 +1086,8 @@ interface AxisEvidence {
   bootstrap: PairedBootstrapResult;
   /** Paired observations contributing to this axis. */
   n: number;
+  minimumRequired: number;
+  decisionMethod: 'bootstrap-ci' | 'exact-sign';
   gainThreshold: number;
   floorTolerance: number;
   verdict: AxisVerdict;
@@ -1107,7 +1111,8 @@ interface EvidenceVector {
 type PromotionPolicy = (ev: EvidenceVector) => GateResult;
 interface BuildEvidenceVectorOptions {
   /** Minimum paired observations before an axis can claim significance; below
-   *  it the axis is `few_runs`. Default 3. */
+   *  it the axis is `few_runs`. The exact small-sample test may require more
+   *  observations at the selected confidence. */
   minProductiveRuns?: number;
   /** Confidence level for every axis bootstrap. Default 0.95. */
   confidence?: number;
@@ -1737,4 +1742,4 @@ interface SkillOptOptimizationMethodConfig<TScenario extends Scenario, TArtifact
 declare function skillOptOptimizationMethod<TScenario extends Scenario, TArtifact>(config: SkillOptOptimizationMethodConfig<TScenario, TArtifact>): OptimizationMethod<TScenario, TArtifact>;
 //#endregion
 export { Objective as $, optimizationTokenUsageFromSummary as $t, RunEvalOptions as A, CanarySeverity as At, OptimizerModelBudget as B, ComparisonCost as Bt, RunImprovementLoopOptions as C, ReferenceEquivalenceJudgeResult as Cn, scoreRedTeamOutput as Ct, RunOptimizationOptions as D, LlmJudgeDimension as Dn, CanaryKind as Dt, PremeasuredOptimizationBaseline as E, runReferenceEquivalenceJudge as En, CanaryEvaluation as Et, GepaOptimizationMethodConfig as F, ExternalTextOptimizerContext as Ft, ObjectiveSource as G, OptimizationMethodProvenance as Gt, AxisVerdict as H, OptimizationMethodComparison as Ht, GepaOptimizationRecipe as I, ExternalTextOptimizerResult as It, PromotionPolicy as J, OptimizationMethodScore as Jt, ParetoSignificanceGateOptions as K, OptimizationMethodResult as Kt, GepaRunnerCommand as L, ExternalOptimizationExample as Lt, GepaAdaptiveEngineRun as M, composeGate as Mt, GepaEngineOptions as N, externalTextOptimizationMethod as Nt, RunOptimizationResult as O, LlmJudgeOptions as On, CanaryOptions as Ot, GepaEngineRun as P, ExternalTextOptimizationMethodConfig as Pt, Direction as Q, costFromLedgerSummary as Qt, gepaOptimizationMethod as R, ExternalTextEvaluationResponse as Rt, verifyLoopProvenanceRecord as S, ReferenceEquivalenceJudgeOptions as Sn, redTeamReport as St, runImprovementLoop as T, createReferenceEquivalenceJudge as Tn, CanaryAlert as Tt, BuildEvidenceVectorOptions as U, OptimizationMethodInput as Ut, AxisEvidence as V, OptimizationMethod as Vt, EvidenceVector as W, OptimizationMethodPairwise as Wt, paretoPolicy as X, OptimizationTokenUsage as Xt, buildEvidenceVector as Y, OptimizationPackageSource as Yt, paretoSignificanceGate as Z, compareOptimizationMethods as Zt, emitLoopProvenance as _, OpenAutoPrResult as _n, RedTeamCategory as _t, BuildLoopProvenanceArgs as a, planCampaignRun as an, scalarScore as at, provenanceRecordPath as b, REFERENCE_EQUIVALENCE_JUDGE_VERSION as bn, RedTeamReport as bt, LoopProvenanceArgsFromResult as c, createRunCostLedger as cn, powerPreflight as ct, LoopProvenanceEvidence as d, assertCampaignDesign as dn, DefaultProductionGateCheck as dt, CampaignCellFailureReceipt as en, ParetoResult as et, LoopProvenanceOptimizationMethod as f, assertCampaignSplitIdentity as fn, DefaultProductionGateOptions as ft, canonicalDigest as g, OpenAutoPrOptions as gn, RedTeamCase as gt, campaignMeasurementDigest as h, campaignSplitDigestFromIdentities as hn, DEFAULT_RED_TEAM_CORPUS as ht, skillOptOptimizationMethod as i, RunCampaignOptions as in, paretoFrontierWithCrowding as it, runEval as j, runCanaries as jt, runOptimization as k, llmJudge as kn, CanaryReport as kt, LoopProvenanceBackend as l, fsCampaignStorage as ln, HeldOutGateOptions as lt, buildLoopProvenanceRecord as m, campaignSplitDigest as mn, defaultProductionGate as mt, SkillOptRunnerCommand as n, CampaignRunPlanCell as nn, dominates as nt, EmitLoopProvenanceArgs as o, runCampaign as on, PowerPreflight as ot, LoopProvenanceRecord as p, campaignScenarioIdentity as pn, DefaultProductionRewardHackingOptions as pt, PromotionObjective as q, OptimizationMethodRunOptions as qt, SkillOptTrainerConfig as r, PlanCampaignRunOptions as rn, paretoFrontier as rt, EmitLoopProvenanceResult as s, CampaignStorage as sn, PowerPreflightOptions as st, SkillOptOptimizationMethodConfig as t, CampaignRunPlan as tn, crowdingDistance as tt, LoopProvenanceCandidate as u, inMemoryCampaignStorage as un, heldOutGate as ut, loopProvenanceArgsFromResult as v, openAutoPr as vn, RedTeamFinding as vt, RunImprovementLoopResult as w, ReferenceEquivalenceScenario as wn, toolNamesForRun as wt, provenanceSpansPath as x, ReferenceEquivalenceJudgeInput as xn, redTeamDataset as xt, loopProvenanceSpans as y, REFERENCE_EQUIVALENCE_INPUT_LIMITS as yn, RedTeamPayload as yt, OpenAICompatibleOptimizerModel as z, CompareOptimizationMethodsOptions as zt };
-//# sourceMappingURL=skillopt-optimization-method-CAASpcS3.d.ts.map
+//# sourceMappingURL=skillopt-optimization-method-Dxr8pdZd.d.ts.map

package/dist/{skillopt-optimization-method-CAASpcS3.d.ts.map → skillopt-optimization-method-Dxr8pdZd.d.ts.map}

@@ -1 +1 @@
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package/dist/{skillopt-optimization-method-BoIzh7Dl.js → skillopt-optimization-method-vvJ4bMNI.js}

@@ -3,10 +3,10 @@ import { c as costForTokenPricing, i as CostLedger, t as CostAccountingIncomplet
 import { f as maximumChargeForLlmRequest, l as costReceiptFromLlm, m as stripFencedJson, u as costReceiptFromLlmError } from "./llm-client-ClPW-dWB.js";
 import { i as combineAbortSignals, r as clamp01 } from "./run-score-iEEAWiBY.js";
 import { n as mapConcurrent } from "./concurrency-MUjT7VjM.js";
-import { a as confidenceInterval, j as weightedComposite, v as pairedBootstrap } from "./statistics-DWM_AyLe.js";
+import { C as pairedBootstrap, D as pairedSignTest, I as weightedComposite, u as confidenceInterval } from "./statistics-RwRNu2__.js";
 import { t as DEFAULT_REDACTION_RULES } from "./redact-7Aq1ukl-.js";
-import { a as campaignCellExecutionEvidence, l as projectCampaignCellQuality, t as detectRewardHacking } from "./reward-hacking-Dl2UBzej.js";
-import { a as tryWithLedgerFileLock, i as appendLedgerLine, m as tryAcquireAtomicFileLock, p as probeAtomicFileLock } from "./ledger-core-CPZfcrC2.js";
+import { a as campaignCellExecutionEvidence, l as projectCampaignCellQuality, t as detectRewardHacking } from "./reward-hacking-DCdRK9TY.js";
+import { a as appendLedgerLine, h as tryAcquireAtomicFileLock, m as probeAtomicFileLock, o as tryWithLedgerFileLock } from "./ledger-core-DAKFKRzi.js";
 import { createRequire } from "node:module";
 import { z } from "zod";
 import { appendFileSync, existsSync, readFileSync, writeFileSync } from "node:fs";
@@ -155,6 +155,51 @@ function assertBackendReport(report, opts) {
 	return report;
 }
 //#endregion
+//#region src/paired-delta-test.ts
+/** Smallest all-positive sample that can clear a one-sided exact sign test. */
+function minimumPairsForPairedDeltaTest(confidence = .95) {
+	if (!Number.isFinite(confidence) || confidence <= 0 || confidence >= 1) throw new Error(`minimumPairsForPairedDeltaTest: confidence must be in (0,1), got ${confidence}`);
+	const oneSidedAlpha = (1 - confidence) / 2;
+	return Math.ceil(Math.log2(1 / oneSidedAlpha));
+}
+/**
+* Tests whether a paired candidate-minus-baseline delta clears a threshold.
+*
+* At 20 or more pairs, the percentile bootstrap lower bound carries the
+* decision. Below that point the interval is descriptive only, so the function
+* switches to a pre-registered one-sided exact sign test. The exact path is
+* deliberately conservative: it requires both a point estimate above the
+* threshold and enough consistently positive paired differences.
+*/
+function pairedDeltaTest(before, after, options = {}) {
+	const threshold = options.threshold ?? 0;
+	if (!Number.isFinite(threshold)) throw new Error(`pairedDeltaTest: threshold must be finite, got ${threshold}`);
+	const exactMinimum = minimumPairsForPairedDeltaTest(options.confidence ?? .95);
+	const requestedMinimum = options.minPairs ?? exactMinimum;
+	if (!Number.isInteger(requestedMinimum) || requestedMinimum < 1) throw new Error(`pairedDeltaTest: minPairs must be a positive integer, got ${requestedMinimum}`);
+	const minimumPairs = Math.max(requestedMinimum, exactMinimum);
+	const bootstrap = pairedBootstrap(before, after, options);
+	const sufficient = bootstrap.n >= minimumPairs;
+	if (bootstrap.gateEligible) return {
+		bootstrap,
+		method: "bootstrap-ci",
+		pValue: null,
+		minimumPairs,
+		sufficient,
+		significant: sufficient && bootstrap.low > threshold
+	};
+	const exact = pairedSignTest(before.map((value, index) => after[index] - value - threshold), "greater");
+	const estimate = options.statistic === "mean" ? bootstrap.mean : bootstrap.median;
+	return {
+		bootstrap,
+		method: "exact-sign",
+		pValue: exact.pValue,
+		minimumPairs,
+		sufficient,
+		significant: sufficient && estimate > threshold && exact.pValue <= (1 - bootstrap.confidence) / 2
+	};
+}
+//#endregion
 //#region src/json-recovery.ts
 /**
 * Truncation-tolerant JSON recovery — shared by every parser that reads JSON
@@ -5251,23 +5296,24 @@ function pairHoldout(candidate, baseline, scenarioIds, select) {
 }
 /** Significance of the held-out composite lift: ship only when the paired
 *  bootstrap CI lower bound on (candidate − baseline) exceeds `deltaThreshold`
-*  (default 0 ⇒ "confidently positive"). Below `minProductiveRuns` paired
-*  observations there is not enough evidence to claim significance → not
-*  significant (`fewRuns`). Interpret `deltaThreshold` in the judge's native
-*  composite scale. */
+*  (default 0 ⇒ "confidently positive"). At small n, where the percentile
+*  bootstrap is descriptive only, a pre-registered exact sign test carries
+*  the decision. Interpret `deltaThreshold` in the judge's native scale. */
 function heldoutSignificance(paired, opts = {}) {
 	const deltaThreshold = opts.deltaThreshold ?? 0;
-	const minProductiveRuns = opts.minProductiveRuns ?? 3;
 	const confidence = opts.confidence ?? .95;
 	const resamples = opts.resamples ?? 2e3;
 	const seed = opts.seed ?? 1337;
 	const statistic = opts.statistic ?? "mean";
-	const bootstrap = pairedBootstrap(paired.before, paired.after, {
+	const decision = pairedDeltaTest(paired.before, paired.after, {
 		confidence,
 		resamples,
 		statistic,
-		seed
+		seed,
+		threshold: deltaThreshold,
+		minPairs: opts.minProductiveRuns
 	});
+	const bootstrap = decision.bootstrap;
 	const medianBootstrap = statistic === "median" ? bootstrap : pairedBootstrap(paired.before, paired.after, {
 		confidence,
 		resamples,
@@ -5282,14 +5328,18 @@ function heldoutSignificance(paired, opts = {}) {
 		if (Math.abs(after - before) < 1e-9) ties += 1;
 	}
 	const tieFraction = n === 0 ? 0 : ties / n;
-	const fewRuns = n < minProductiveRuns;
+	const fewRuns = !decision.sufficient;
+	const significant = decision.significant;
 	return {
 		paired,
 		bootstrap,
 		medianBootstrap,
 		tieFraction,
 		n,
-		significant: !fewRuns && bootstrap.low > deltaThreshold,
+		minimumRequired: decision.minimumPairs,
+		decisionMethod: decision.method,
+		pValue: decision.pValue,
+		significant,
 		fewRuns
 	};
 }
@@ -5317,10 +5367,17 @@ function dimensionRegressions(candidate, baseline, scenarioIds, criticalDimensio
 			statistic: "median",
 			seed: opts.seed ?? 1337
 		});
+		const regression = pairedDeltaTest(paired.after, paired.before, {
+			confidence: opts.confidence ?? .95,
+			resamples: opts.resamples ?? 2e3,
+			statistic: "median",
+			seed: opts.seed ?? 1337,
+			threshold: tolerance
+		});
 		out.push({
 			dimension: dim,
 			bootstrap,
-			regressed: bootstrap.low < -tolerance,
+			regressed: regression.significant,
 			tolerance,
 			n: paired.before.length
 		});
@@ -5395,7 +5452,7 @@ function defaultProductionGate(options) {
 				if (sig.fewRuns) requiredUnavailable.add("heldout-significance");
 				if (!heldoutPass) {
 					const tieNote = sig.tieFraction >= .4 ? `; ${(sig.tieFraction * 100).toFixed(0)}% tied scenarios` : "";
-					reasons.push(sig.fewRuns ? `held-out: only ${sig.n} paired runs (< ${minProductiveRuns}) — too few to claim significance` : `held-out CI.low ${sig.bootstrap.low.toFixed(3)} ≤ threshold ${deltaThreshold} (${heldoutStatistic} Δ ${delta.toFixed(3)}, ${(sig.bootstrap.confidence * 100).toFixed(0)}% CI [${sig.bootstrap.low.toFixed(3)}, ${sig.bootstrap.high.toFixed(3)}]${tieNote})`);
+					reasons.push(sig.fewRuns ? `held-out: only ${sig.n} paired runs (< ${sig.minimumRequired}) — too few to claim significance` : `held-out CI.low ${sig.bootstrap.low.toFixed(3)} ≤ threshold ${deltaThreshold} (${heldoutStatistic} Δ ${delta.toFixed(3)}, ${(sig.bootstrap.confidence * 100).toFixed(0)}% CI [${sig.bootstrap.low.toFixed(3)}, ${sig.bootstrap.high.toFixed(3)}]${tieNote})`);
 				}
 			}
 			const dimensionsProvided = options.criticalDimensions !== void 0;
@@ -5617,7 +5674,7 @@ function heldOutGate(options) {
 			const ci = `${(sig.bootstrap.confidence * 100).toFixed(0)}% CI [${sig.bootstrap.low.toFixed(3)}, ${sig.bootstrap.high.toFixed(3)}]`;
 			return {
 				decision: passed ? "ship" : "hold",
-				reasons: passed ? [`held-out mean Δ ${delta.toFixed(3)}, CI.low ${sig.bootstrap.low.toFixed(3)} > ${deltaThreshold} (${ci}, n=${sig.n}${tieNote})`] : [sig.fewRuns ? `held-out: only ${sig.n} paired runs — too few to claim significance` : `held-out mean Δ ${delta.toFixed(3)}, CI.low ${sig.bootstrap.low.toFixed(3)} ≤ ${deltaThreshold} (${ci}, n=${sig.n}${tieNote})`],
+				reasons: passed ? [`held-out mean Δ ${delta.toFixed(3)}, CI.low ${sig.bootstrap.low.toFixed(3)} > ${deltaThreshold} (${ci}, n=${sig.n}${tieNote})`] : [sig.fewRuns ? `held-out: only ${sig.n} paired runs; ${sig.minimumRequired} required — too few to claim significance` : `held-out mean Δ ${delta.toFixed(3)}, CI.low ${sig.bootstrap.low.toFixed(3)} ≤ ${deltaThreshold} (${ci}, n=${sig.n}${tieNote})`],
 				contributingGates: [{
 					name: "heldOutGate",
 					status,
@@ -5686,6 +5743,30 @@ function powerPreflight(opts) {
 //#endregion
 //#region src/campaign/gates/promotion-policy.ts
 /**
+* Promotion policy over the evidence VECTOR — the substrate's answer to "never
+* collapse the multi-objective promotion decision into one scalar." A
+* `defaultProductionGate` is one opinionated composition; this module factors
+* the decision into two reusable pieces so MANY policies can compete over the
+* SAME evidence (the quant-desk pattern: one evidence bus, plural strategies):
+*
+*   buildEvidenceVector(ctx, objectives, opts) -> EvidenceVector   // the bus
+*   PromotionPolicy = (ev: EvidenceVector) => GateResult           // a strategy
+*   paretoPolicy(ev)                                               // the default strategy
+*   paretoSignificanceGate(options): Gate                          // bus + policy as a Gate
+*
+* The Pareto policy is SYMMETRIC multi-objective: every objective is BOTH a
+* potential gain source AND a safety floor (unlike `defaultProductionGate`,
+* where only `composite` can win and `criticalDimensions` are pure floors). A
+* candidate ships iff it weakly DOMINATES the baseline at the confidence level —
+* no objective credibly worse (CI floor breach) AND at least one objective
+* credibly better (CI gain). Insufficient evidence on ANY axis -> need_more_work
+* (NOT folded into hold: "gather more reps" and "reject" are different actions).
+*
+* Cost/latency are NOT CI axes here — `GateContext` carries only an aggregate
+* per-side cost, no per-cell observation vector to bootstrap. Treat them as hard
+* constraints (compose with a budget gate via `composeGate`), not faked CIs.
+*/
+/**
 * The Evidence Bus. For each objective, pair candidate vs baseline by full
 * cellId and bootstrap a CI on the good-direction paired delta. Reuses the
 * exact `pairHoldout` + `pairedBootstrap` machinery the held-out gate uses, so
@@ -5693,7 +5774,6 @@ function powerPreflight(opts) {
 */
 function buildEvidenceVector(ctx, objectives, opts = {}) {
 	if (objectives.length === 0) throw new Error("buildEvidenceVector: at least 1 objective required");
-	const minProductiveRuns = opts.minProductiveRuns ?? 3;
 	const confidence = opts.confidence ?? .95;
 	const resamples = opts.resamples ?? 2e3;
 	const seed = opts.seed ?? 1337;
@@ -5708,22 +5788,37 @@ function buildEvidenceVector(ctx, objectives, opts = {}) {
 			select = (s) => s.dimensions[dim];
 		}
 		const paired = pairHoldout(ctx.judgeScores, baseline, scenarioIds, select);
-		const bootstrap = pairedBootstrap(obj.direction === "maximize" ? paired.before : paired.after, obj.direction === "maximize" ? paired.after : paired.before, {
+		const before = obj.direction === "maximize" ? paired.before : paired.after;
+		const after = obj.direction === "maximize" ? paired.after : paired.before;
+		const n = paired.before.length;
+		const floorTolerance = obj.floorTolerance ?? .05 * detectScale([...paired.before, ...paired.after]);
+		const gainThreshold = obj.gainThreshold ?? 0;
+		const improvement = pairedDeltaTest(before, after, {
 			confidence,
 			resamples,
 			statistic: "median",
-			seed
+			seed,
+			threshold: gainThreshold,
+			minPairs: opts.minProductiveRuns
 		});
-		const n = paired.before.length;
-		const floorTolerance = obj.floorTolerance ?? .05 * detectScale([...paired.before, ...paired.after]);
-		const gainThreshold = obj.gainThreshold ?? 0;
-		const verdict = n < minProductiveRuns ? "few_runs" : bootstrap.low < -floorTolerance ? "regressed" : bootstrap.low > gainThreshold ? "improved" : "flat";
+		const regression = pairedDeltaTest(after, before, {
+			confidence,
+			resamples,
+			statistic: "median",
+			seed,
+			threshold: floorTolerance,
+			minPairs: opts.minProductiveRuns
+		});
+		const bootstrap = improvement.bootstrap;
+		const verdict = !improvement.sufficient ? "few_runs" : regression.significant ? "regressed" : improvement.significant ? "improved" : "flat";
 		axes.push({
 			name: obj.name,
 			source: obj.source,
 			direction: obj.direction,
 			bootstrap,
 			n,
+			minimumRequired: improvement.minimumPairs,
+			decisionMethod: improvement.method,
 			gainThreshold,
 			floorTolerance,
 			verdict
@@ -6716,6 +6811,7 @@ async function runImprovementLoop(opts) {
 	const holdoutDeferred = (opts.holdout ?? "measured") === "deferred";
 	const baselineOnHoldout = holdoutDeferred ? await runCampaign({
 		...opts,
+		labeledStore: "off",
 		costLedger,
 		costPhase: "holdout.deferred",
 		dispatchTimeoutMs,
@@ -6726,6 +6822,7 @@ async function runImprovementLoop(opts) {
 		runDir: `${opts.runDir}/holdout-deferred`
 	}) : await runCampaign({
 		...opts,
+		labeledStore: "off",
 		costLedger,
 		costPhase: "holdout.baseline",
 		dispatchTimeoutMs,
@@ -6735,6 +6832,7 @@ async function runImprovementLoop(opts) {
 	});
 	const winnerOnHoldout = winnerIsBaseline || holdoutDeferred ? baselineOnHoldout : await runCampaign({
 		...opts,
+		labeledStore: "off",
 		costLedger,
 		costPhase: "holdout.winner",
 		dispatchTimeoutMs,
@@ -6773,6 +6871,7 @@ async function runImprovementLoop(opts) {
 		neutralizedSurface = surface;
 		neutralizedOnHoldout = await runCampaign({
 			...opts,
+			labeledStore: "off",
 			costLedger,
 			costPhase: "holdout.neutralized",
 			dispatchTimeoutMs,
@@ -7713,6 +7812,6 @@ function skillOptOptimizationMethod(config) {
 	};
 }
 //#endregion
-export { SEARCH_LEDGER_FILE_CONTEXT as $, acquireSingleRunLock as A, dominates as At, surfaceContentHash as B, JudgeParseError as Bt, detectScale as C, llmJudge as Ct, runCanaries as D, fileVerdictCache as Dt, pairHoldout as E, contentHash as Et, assertCodeSurfaceIdentity as F, BackendIntegrityError as Ft, DEFAULT_MUTATION_PRIMITIVES as G, campaignBreakdown as H, assertComponentSurface as I, assertRealAgentReceipts as It, planCampaignRun as J, buildReflectionPrompt as K, codeSurfaceIdentityMaterial as L, assertRealBackend as Lt, compareOptimizationMethods as M, paretoFrontierWithCrowding as Mt, costFromLedgerSummary as N, scalarScore as Nt, composeGate as O, inMemoryVerdictCache as Ot, optimizationTokenUsageFromSummary as P, recoverTruncatedJson as Pt, inMemoryCampaignStorage as Q, componentSurfaceIdentityMaterial as R, summarizeAgentReceiptIntegrity as Rt, defaultProductionGate as S, hashScenarios as St, heldoutSignificance as T, canonicalJson as Tt, campaignMeanComposite as U, surfaceHash as V, compareRankKeys as W, createRunCostLedger as X, runCampaign as Y, fsCampaignStorage as Z, buildEvidenceVector as _, redTeamReport as _t, emitLoopProvenance as a, assertCampaignDesign as at, powerPreflight as b, Dataset as bt, provenanceRecordPath as c, campaignSplitDigest as ct, runImprovementLoop as d, REFERENCE_EQUIVALENCE_INPUT_LIMITS as dt, SearchLedgerConflictError as et, runOptimization as f, REFERENCE_EQUIVALENCE_JUDGE_VERSION as ft, gepaOptimizationMethod as g, redTeamDataset as gt, labelTrustRank as h, DEFAULT_RED_TEAM_CORPUS as ht, canonicalDigest as i, tangleTracesRoot as it, assertOptimizationResult as j, paretoFrontier as jt, externalTextOptimizationMethod as k, crowdingDistance as kt, provenanceSpansPath as l, campaignSplitDigestFromIdentities as lt, isProposedCandidate as m, runReferenceEquivalenceJudge as mt, buildLoopProvenanceRecord as n, SearchLedgerIntegrityError as nt, loopProvenanceArgsFromResult as o, assertCampaignSplitIdentity as ot, runEval as p, createReferenceEquivalenceJudge as pt, parseReflectionResponse as q, campaignMeasurementDigest as r, resolveRunDir as rt, loopProvenanceSpans as s, campaignScenarioIdentity as st, skillOptOptimizationMethod as t, SearchLedgerError as tt, verifyLoopProvenanceRecord as u, openAutoPr as ut, paretoPolicy as v, scoreRedTeamOutput as vt, dimensionRegressions as w, cachedJudge as wt, heldOutGate as x, HoldoutLockedError as xt, paretoSignificanceGate as y, toolNamesForRun as yt, renderSurfaceDiff as z, summarizeBackendIntegrity as zt };
+export { SEARCH_LEDGER_FILE_CONTEXT as $, acquireSingleRunLock as A, dominates as At, surfaceContentHash as B, summarizeAgentReceiptIntegrity as Bt, detectScale as C, llmJudge as Ct, runCanaries as D, fileVerdictCache as Dt, pairHoldout as E, contentHash as Et, assertCodeSurfaceIdentity as F, minimumPairsForPairedDeltaTest as Ft, DEFAULT_MUTATION_PRIMITIVES as G, campaignBreakdown as H, JudgeParseError as Ht, assertComponentSurface as I, pairedDeltaTest as It, planCampaignRun as J, buildReflectionPrompt as K, codeSurfaceIdentityMaterial as L, BackendIntegrityError as Lt, compareOptimizationMethods as M, paretoFrontierWithCrowding as Mt, costFromLedgerSummary as N, scalarScore as Nt, composeGate as O, inMemoryVerdictCache as Ot, optimizationTokenUsageFromSummary as P, recoverTruncatedJson as Pt, inMemoryCampaignStorage as Q, componentSurfaceIdentityMaterial as R, assertRealAgentReceipts as Rt, defaultProductionGate as S, hashScenarios as St, heldoutSignificance as T, canonicalJson as Tt, campaignMeanComposite as U, surfaceHash as V, summarizeBackendIntegrity as Vt, compareRankKeys as W, createRunCostLedger as X, runCampaign as Y, fsCampaignStorage as Z, buildEvidenceVector as _, redTeamReport as _t, emitLoopProvenance as a, assertCampaignDesign as at, powerPreflight as b, Dataset as bt, provenanceRecordPath as c, campaignSplitDigest as ct, runImprovementLoop as d, REFERENCE_EQUIVALENCE_INPUT_LIMITS as dt, SearchLedgerConflictError as et, runOptimization as f, REFERENCE_EQUIVALENCE_JUDGE_VERSION as ft, gepaOptimizationMethod as g, redTeamDataset as gt, labelTrustRank as h, DEFAULT_RED_TEAM_CORPUS as ht, canonicalDigest as i, tangleTracesRoot as it, assertOptimizationResult as j, paretoFrontier as jt, externalTextOptimizationMethod as k, crowdingDistance as kt, provenanceSpansPath as l, campaignSplitDigestFromIdentities as lt, isProposedCandidate as m, runReferenceEquivalenceJudge as mt, buildLoopProvenanceRecord as n, SearchLedgerIntegrityError as nt, loopProvenanceArgsFromResult as o, assertCampaignSplitIdentity as ot, runEval as p, createReferenceEquivalenceJudge as pt, parseReflectionResponse as q, campaignMeasurementDigest as r, resolveRunDir as rt, loopProvenanceSpans as s, campaignScenarioIdentity as st, skillOptOptimizationMethod as t, SearchLedgerError as tt, verifyLoopProvenanceRecord as u, openAutoPr as ut, paretoPolicy as v, scoreRedTeamOutput as vt, dimensionRegressions as w, cachedJudge as wt, heldOutGate as x, HoldoutLockedError as xt, paretoSignificanceGate as y, toolNamesForRun as yt, renderSurfaceDiff as z, assertRealBackend as zt };
 
-//# sourceMappingURL=skillopt-optimization-method-BoIzh7Dl.js.map
+//# sourceMappingURL=skillopt-optimization-method-vvJ4bMNI.js.map