@tangle-network/agent-eval 0.129.0 → 0.130.1

package/dist/meta-eval/index.js

@@ -1,417 +1,420 @@
-import {
-  calibrationCurve,
-  calibrationFromPairs
-} from "../chunk-NPCTHQIO.js";
-import {
-  analyzeSeries
-} from "../chunk-BOD4O7OF.js";
-import {
-  FileSystemOutcomeStore,
-  InMemoryOutcomeStore
-} from "../chunk-3RF76KTD.js";
-import {
-  rubricPredictiveValidity
-} from "../chunk-TQ7LNKZ3.js";
-import {
-  pearsonR,
-  spearmanR
-} from "../chunk-ZHTZ4EYI.js";
-import {
-  aggregateLlm,
-  llmSpans
-} from "../chunk-ZET2UAYW.js";
-import "../chunk-MA6HLL3S.js";
-import {
-  ValidationError
-} from "../chunk-ONWEPEDO.js";
-import "../chunk-PZ5AY32C.js";
-
-// src/meta-eval/correlation-study.ts
+import { s as ValidationError } from "../errors-8YnH8WlF.js";
+import { A as spearmanR, E as pearsonR } from "../statistics-CnnxdpOg.js";
+import { o as llmSpans, t as aggregateLlm } from "../query-Di7eEQ79.js";
+import { t as analyzeSeries } from "../series-convergence-CjO2QdRW.js";
+import { t as rubricPredictiveValidity } from "../rubric-predictive-validity-B3xmbmS1.js";
+import { n as InMemoryOutcomeStore, t as FileSystemOutcomeStore } from "../outcome-store-ChBKlTd_.js";
+import { n as calibrationFromPairs, t as calibrationCurve } from "../calibration-CNWWA6K8.js";
+//#region src/meta-eval/correlation-study.ts
+/**
+* Correlation study — "does our eval score predict real-world outcomes?"
+*
+* This is the load-bearing signal. Takes a TraceStore + OutcomeStore,
+* joins on runId, computes Pearson + Spearman + bootstrap CI for every
+* (evalMetric, outcomeMetric) pair the caller declares.
+*
+* Without this number the framework is ornamental. With it and r > 0.6
+* the framework is a moat — no other agent-eval tool publishes one.
+*/
 async function correlationStudy(traceStore, outcomeStore, evalMetrics, outcomeMetricNames, options = {}) {
-  const runs = await traceStore.listRuns();
-  const outcomes = await outcomeStore.list(options.outcomeFilter);
-  const outcomesByRun = /* @__PURE__ */ new Map();
-  for (const o of outcomes) {
-    const arr = outcomesByRun.get(o.runId) ?? [];
-    arr.push(o);
-    outcomesByRun.set(o.runId, arr);
-  }
-  const reduction = options.reduction ?? "latest";
-  const maxLag = options.maxCaptureLagMs ?? Infinity;
-  const pairs = [];
-  for (const em of evalMetrics) {
-    for (const om of outcomeMetricNames) {
-      pairs.push({ evalMetric: em.id, outcomeMetric: om, xs: [], ys: [] });
-    }
-  }
-  let joined = 0;
-  let skipped = 0;
-  for (const run of runs) {
-    const os = outcomesByRun.get(run.runId);
-    if (!os || os.length === 0) {
-      skipped++;
-      continue;
-    }
-    const eligible = os.filter((o) => o.capturedAt - run.startedAt <= maxLag);
-    if (eligible.length === 0) {
-      skipped++;
-      continue;
-    }
-    for (const em of evalMetrics) {
-      const extract = em.extract ?? defaultExtract(em.id);
-      const x = await extract(run, traceStore);
-      if (x === null || !Number.isFinite(x)) continue;
-      for (const om of outcomeMetricNames) {
-        const values = eligible.map((o) => o.metrics[om]).filter((v) => typeof v === "number" && Number.isFinite(v));
-        if (values.length === 0) continue;
-        const y = reduce(values, reduction, eligible);
-        if (y === null) continue;
-        const pair = pairs.find((p) => p.evalMetric === em.id && p.outcomeMetric === om);
-        pair.xs.push(x);
-        pair.ys.push(y);
-      }
-    }
-    joined++;
-  }
-  const results = pairs.filter((p) => p.xs.length >= 3).map((p) => {
-    const pearson = pearsonR(p.xs, p.ys);
-    const spearman = spearmanR(p.xs, p.ys);
-    const pearsonCi95 = bootstrapPearsonCi(p.xs, p.ys, options.bootstrapIterations ?? 500);
-    const verdict = Math.abs(pearson) >= 0.7 ? "strong" : Math.abs(pearson) >= 0.4 ? "moderate" : "weak";
-    return {
-      evalMetric: p.evalMetric,
-      outcomeMetric: p.outcomeMetric,
-      n: p.xs.length,
-      pearson,
-      spearman,
-      pearsonCi95,
-      verdict
-    };
-  });
-  return { pairs: results, joinedSamples: joined, skippedRuns: skipped };
+	const runs = await traceStore.listRuns();
+	const outcomes = await outcomeStore.list(options.outcomeFilter);
+	const outcomesByRun = /* @__PURE__ */ new Map();
+	for (const o of outcomes) {
+		const arr = outcomesByRun.get(o.runId) ?? [];
+		arr.push(o);
+		outcomesByRun.set(o.runId, arr);
+	}
+	const reduction = options.reduction ?? "latest";
+	const maxLag = options.maxCaptureLagMs ?? Infinity;
+	const pairs = [];
+	for (const em of evalMetrics) for (const om of outcomeMetricNames) pairs.push({
+		evalMetric: em.id,
+		outcomeMetric: om,
+		xs: [],
+		ys: []
+	});
+	let joined = 0;
+	let skipped = 0;
+	for (const run of runs) {
+		const os = outcomesByRun.get(run.runId);
+		if (!os || os.length === 0) {
+			skipped++;
+			continue;
+		}
+		const eligible = os.filter((o) => o.capturedAt - run.startedAt <= maxLag);
+		if (eligible.length === 0) {
+			skipped++;
+			continue;
+		}
+		for (const em of evalMetrics) {
+			const x = await (em.extract ?? defaultExtract(em.id))(run, traceStore);
+			if (x === null || !Number.isFinite(x)) continue;
+			for (const om of outcomeMetricNames) {
+				const values = eligible.map((o) => o.metrics[om]).filter((v) => typeof v === "number" && Number.isFinite(v));
+				if (values.length === 0) continue;
+				const y = reduce(values, reduction, eligible);
+				if (y === null) continue;
+				const pair = pairs.find((p) => p.evalMetric === em.id && p.outcomeMetric === om);
+				pair.xs.push(x);
+				pair.ys.push(y);
+			}
+		}
+		joined++;
+	}
+	return {
+		pairs: pairs.filter((p) => p.xs.length >= 3).map((p) => {
+			const pearson = pearsonR(p.xs, p.ys);
+			const spearman = spearmanR(p.xs, p.ys);
+			const pearsonCi95 = bootstrapPearsonCi(p.xs, p.ys, options.bootstrapIterations ?? 500);
+			const verdict = Math.abs(pearson) >= .7 ? "strong" : Math.abs(pearson) >= .4 ? "moderate" : "weak";
+			return {
+				evalMetric: p.evalMetric,
+				outcomeMetric: p.outcomeMetric,
+				n: p.xs.length,
+				pearson,
+				spearman,
+				pearsonCi95,
+				verdict
+			};
+		}),
+		joinedSamples: joined,
+		skippedRuns: skipped
+	};
 }
 function reduce(values, kind, outcomes) {
-  if (values.length === 0) return null;
-  if (kind === "mean") return values.reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0) / values.length;
-  if (kind === "max") return Math.max(...values);
-  const latest = [...outcomes].sort((a, b) => b.capturedAt - a.capturedAt)[0];
-  if (!latest) return null;
-  const latestKey = Object.keys(latest.metrics)[0];
-  const v = latestKey !== void 0 ? latest.metrics[latestKey] : void 0;
-  const paired = outcomes.map((o) => {
-    const k = Object.keys(o.metrics)[0];
-    return {
-      at: o.capturedAt,
-      v: k !== void 0 ? values.find((x) => o.metrics[k] === x) : void 0
-    };
-  }).filter((p) => p.v !== void 0);
-  if (paired.length === 0) return v ?? null;
-  return paired.sort((a, b) => b.at - a.at)[0]?.v ?? null;
+	if (values.length === 0) return null;
+	if (kind === "mean") return values.reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0) / values.length;
+	if (kind === "max") return Math.max(...values);
+	const latest = [...outcomes].sort((a, b) => b.capturedAt - a.capturedAt)[0];
+	if (!latest) return null;
+	const latestKey = Object.keys(latest.metrics)[0];
+	const v = latestKey !== void 0 ? latest.metrics[latestKey] : void 0;
+	const paired = outcomes.map((o) => {
+		const k = Object.keys(o.metrics)[0];
+		return {
+			at: o.capturedAt,
+			v: k !== void 0 ? values.find((x) => o.metrics[k] === x) : void 0
+		};
+	}).filter((p) => p.v !== void 0);
+	if (paired.length === 0) return v ?? null;
+	return paired.sort((a, b) => b.at - a.at)[0]?.v ?? null;
 }
 function bootstrapPearsonCi(xs, ys, iterations) {
-  const n = xs.length;
-  if (n < 3) return { lower: NaN, upper: NaN };
-  const rs = [];
-  for (let b = 0; b < iterations; b++) {
-    const rx = new Array(n);
-    const ry = new Array(n);
-    for (let i = 0; i < n; i++) {
-      const idx = Math.floor(Math.random() * n);
-      rx[i] = xs[idx];
-      ry[i] = ys[idx];
-    }
-    const r = pearsonR(rx, ry);
-    if (Number.isFinite(r)) rs.push(r);
-  }
-  rs.sort((a, b) => a - b);
-  if (rs.length === 0) return { lower: NaN, upper: NaN };
-  return {
-    lower: rs[Math.floor(0.025 * rs.length)],
-    upper: rs[Math.min(rs.length - 1, Math.floor(0.975 * rs.length))]
-  };
+	const n = xs.length;
+	if (n < 3) return {
+		lower: NaN,
+		upper: NaN
+	};
+	const rs = [];
+	for (let b = 0; b < iterations; b++) {
+		const rx = new Array(n);
+		const ry = new Array(n);
+		for (let i = 0; i < n; i++) {
+			const idx = Math.floor(Math.random() * n);
+			rx[i] = xs[idx];
+			ry[i] = ys[idx];
+		}
+		const r = pearsonR(rx, ry);
+		if (Number.isFinite(r)) rs.push(r);
+	}
+	rs.sort((a, b) => a - b);
+	if (rs.length === 0) return {
+		lower: NaN,
+		upper: NaN
+	};
+	return {
+		lower: rs[Math.floor(.025 * rs.length)],
+		upper: rs[Math.min(rs.length - 1, Math.floor(.975 * rs.length))]
+	};
 }
 function defaultExtract(metric) {
-  return async (run, store) => {
-    switch (metric) {
-      case "score":
-      case "overallScore":
-        return run.outcome?.score ?? null;
-      case "pass":
-        return run.outcome?.pass === true ? 1 : 0;
-      case "durationMs":
-        return run.endedAt && run.startedAt ? run.endedAt - run.startedAt : null;
-      case "costUsd": {
-        const llm = await llmSpans(store, run.runId);
-        return aggregateLlm(llm).costUsd;
-      }
-      case "inputTokens": {
-        const llm = await llmSpans(store, run.runId);
-        return aggregateLlm(llm).inputTokens;
-      }
-      default:
-        return null;
-    }
-  };
+	return async (run, store) => {
+		switch (metric) {
+			case "score":
+			case "overallScore": return run.outcome?.score ?? null;
+			case "pass": return run.outcome?.pass === true ? 1 : 0;
+			case "durationMs": return run.endedAt && run.startedAt ? run.endedAt - run.startedAt : null;
+			case "costUsd": return aggregateLlm(await llmSpans(store, run.runId)).costUsd;
+			case "inputTokens": return aggregateLlm(await llmSpans(store, run.runId)).inputTokens;
+			default: return null;
+		}
+	};
 }
-
-// src/meta-eval/sentinel.ts
-var SENTINEL_METRIC_NAMES = ["irr", "calibrationKappa", "sentinelPassRate"];
+//#endregion
+//#region src/meta-eval/sentinel.ts
+/**
+* Judge sentinel — eval trustworthiness as a continuously measured,
+* alarmed trend.
+*
+* Judges are models; models change underneath us; calibration decays.
+* This module composes three existing instruments into one loop:
+*
+*   snapshot — adapters turn real instrument outputs (`calibrateJudge` /
+*              `calibrateJudgeContinuous`, `corpusInterRaterAgreement` /
+*              `continuousAgreement`, a rerun sentinel golden set) into
+*              `SentinelSnapshot`s
+*   series   — `analyzeSeries` (src/series-convergence) classifies each
+*              judge×metric history as stabilized / drifting / noisy
+*   alarm    — `judgeSentinelReport` turns trends + thresholds into named
+*              alarms; `evalHealthStamp` is the tiny object a campaign
+*              attaches to its verdicts
+*
+* Alarm conditions:
+*   - convergence state `drifting-down` on any tracked metric
+*   - irr below `minIrr`
+*   - calibrationKappa / sentinelPassRate dropped vs the series baseline
+*     beyond `maxKappaDrop` / `maxSentinelDrop`
+*   - judge model changed with no post-change golden-grounded snapshot
+*     (the silent-upgrade trap: judges agreeing with each other after a
+*     model swap proves nothing — only re-measuring against gold does)
+*   - newest snapshot older than `staleAfterDays` relative to `asOf`
+*
+* Wire-in: run the snapshot adapters from a post-campaign hook or a
+* nightly job, append to a `SentinelStore`, then compute
+* `judgeSentinelReport(await store.history(), { asOf })` with `asOf` =
+* the campaign timestamp. Attach `evalHealthStamp(report)` to campaign
+* verdicts: an alarmed sentinel means every downstream verdict carries
+* an integrity warning until the judge is recalibrated.
+*
+* The module is clock-free — every timestamp (`at`, `asOf`) is
+* caller-supplied ISO-8601, so reports are reproducible.
+*/
+const SENTINEL_METRIC_NAMES = [
+	"irr",
+	"calibrationKappa",
+	"sentinelPassRate"
+];
 function parseIso(value, label) {
-  const ms = typeof value === "string" ? Date.parse(value) : NaN;
-  if (!Number.isFinite(ms)) {
-    throw new ValidationError(
-      `judge-sentinel: ${label} is not a parseable ISO timestamp: ${JSON.stringify(value)}`
-    );
-  }
-  return ms;
+	const ms = typeof value === "string" ? Date.parse(value) : NaN;
+	if (!Number.isFinite(ms)) throw new ValidationError(`judge-sentinel: ${label} is not a parseable ISO timestamp: ${JSON.stringify(value)}`);
+	return ms;
 }
+/** Shape guard for snapshots crossing a boundary (store append, JSONL load, report input). */
 function validateSentinelSnapshot(snapshot, source = "snapshot") {
-  parseIso(snapshot.at, `${source}.at`);
-  if (typeof snapshot.judgeId !== "string" || snapshot.judgeId.length === 0) {
-    throw new ValidationError(`judge-sentinel: ${source}.judgeId must be a non-empty string`);
-  }
-  if (typeof snapshot.judgeModel !== "string" || snapshot.judgeModel.length === 0) {
-    throw new ValidationError(`judge-sentinel: ${source}.judgeModel must be a non-empty string`);
-  }
-  if (snapshot.metrics === null || typeof snapshot.metrics !== "object") {
-    throw new ValidationError(`judge-sentinel: ${source}.metrics must be an object (may be empty)`);
-  }
-  for (const [key, value] of Object.entries(snapshot.metrics)) {
-    if (!SENTINEL_METRIC_NAMES.includes(key)) {
-      throw new ValidationError(
-        `judge-sentinel: ${source}.metrics carries unknown key "${key}" \u2014 known: ${SENTINEL_METRIC_NAMES.join(", ")}`
-      );
-    }
-    if (value !== void 0 && !Number.isFinite(value)) {
-      throw new ValidationError(
-        `judge-sentinel: ${source}.metrics.${key} is not a finite number: ${String(value)}`
-      );
-    }
-  }
+	parseIso(snapshot.at, `${source}.at`);
+	if (typeof snapshot.judgeId !== "string" || snapshot.judgeId.length === 0) throw new ValidationError(`judge-sentinel: ${source}.judgeId must be a non-empty string`);
+	if (typeof snapshot.judgeModel !== "string" || snapshot.judgeModel.length === 0) throw new ValidationError(`judge-sentinel: ${source}.judgeModel must be a non-empty string`);
+	if (snapshot.metrics === null || typeof snapshot.metrics !== "object") throw new ValidationError(`judge-sentinel: ${source}.metrics must be an object (may be empty)`);
+	for (const [key, value] of Object.entries(snapshot.metrics)) {
+		if (!SENTINEL_METRIC_NAMES.includes(key)) throw new ValidationError(`judge-sentinel: ${source}.metrics carries unknown key "${key}" — known: ${SENTINEL_METRIC_NAMES.join(", ")}`);
+		if (value !== void 0 && !Number.isFinite(value)) throw new ValidationError(`judge-sentinel: ${source}.metrics.${key} is not a finite number: ${String(value)}`);
+	}
 }
+/**
+* From `calibrateJudge` / `calibrateJudgeContinuous` output. Prefers the
+* un-rounded continuous κ_w when the report carries one (integer κ
+* discards information for [0,1] judges).
+*/
 function snapshotFromCalibration(report, meta) {
-  const kappa = "weightedKappaContinuous" in report ? report.weightedKappaContinuous : report.kappa;
-  if (!Number.isFinite(kappa)) {
-    throw new ValidationError(
-      `snapshotFromCalibration: \u03BA is not finite (n=${report.n}) \u2014 calibrate against \u22652 joined golden items before snapshotting`
-    );
-  }
-  const snapshot = { ...meta, metrics: { calibrationKappa: kappa } };
-  validateSentinelSnapshot(snapshot);
-  return snapshot;
+	const kappa = "weightedKappaContinuous" in report ? report.weightedKappaContinuous : report.kappa;
+	if (!Number.isFinite(kappa)) throw new ValidationError(`snapshotFromCalibration: κ is not finite (n=${report.n}) — calibrate against ≥2 joined golden items before snapshotting`);
+	const snapshot = {
+		...meta,
+		metrics: { calibrationKappa: kappa }
+	};
+	validateSentinelSnapshot(snapshot);
+	return snapshot;
 }
+/**
+* From `corpusInterRaterAgreement` (statistics.ts) or `continuousAgreement`
+* (judge-calibration.ts) output. IRR = ICC(2,1) — the reliability
+* coefficient both instruments compute. For ensemble-level agreement,
+* `meta.judgeId` names the ensemble and `meta.judgeModel` pins its
+* composition (e.g. a joined list of member model strings).
+*/
 function snapshotFromAgreement(report, meta) {
-  const irr = "overallIcc" in report ? report.overallIcc : report.icc;
-  if (!Number.isFinite(irr)) {
-    throw new ValidationError(
-      "snapshotFromAgreement: ICC is not finite \u2014 agreement needs \u22652 raters and \u22652 complete items"
-    );
-  }
-  const snapshot = { ...meta, metrics: { irr } };
-  validateSentinelSnapshot(snapshot);
-  return snapshot;
+	const irr = "overallIcc" in report ? report.overallIcc : report.icc;
+	if (!Number.isFinite(irr)) throw new ValidationError("snapshotFromAgreement: ICC is not finite — agreement needs ≥2 raters and ≥2 complete items");
+	const snapshot = {
+		...meta,
+		metrics: { irr }
+	};
+	validateSentinelSnapshot(snapshot);
+	return snapshot;
 }
+/**
+* From a rerun of a fixed sentinel golden set: the same `GoldenItem`s the
+* judge was originally calibrated on, re-scored periodically. Pass rate =
+* fraction of joined items where the judge stays within `tolerance` of the
+* human score. Items the judge didn't score are excluded from the
+* denominator; zero joined items is an error, not a 0% pass rate.
+*/
 function snapshotFromSentinelSet(scores, golden, meta, options = {}) {
-  const tolerance = options.tolerance ?? 0.1;
-  if (!Number.isFinite(tolerance) || tolerance < 0) {
-    throw new ValidationError(
-      `snapshotFromSentinelSet: tolerance must be a finite number \u2265 0, got ${tolerance}`
-    );
-  }
-  const goldenById = /* @__PURE__ */ new Map();
-  for (const item of golden) {
-    if (!Number.isFinite(item.humanScore)) {
-      throw new ValidationError(
-        `snapshotFromSentinelSet: golden item "${item.itemId}" has a non-finite humanScore`
-      );
-    }
-    if (goldenById.has(item.itemId)) {
-      throw new ValidationError(`snapshotFromSentinelSet: duplicate golden itemId "${item.itemId}"`);
-    }
-    goldenById.set(item.itemId, item.humanScore);
-  }
-  let joined = 0;
-  let passed = 0;
-  for (const s of scores) {
-    const human = goldenById.get(s.itemId);
-    if (human === void 0) continue;
-    if (!Number.isFinite(s.score)) {
-      throw new ValidationError(
-        `snapshotFromSentinelSet: judge score for item "${s.itemId}" is not finite`
-      );
-    }
-    joined++;
-    if (Math.abs(s.score - human) <= tolerance) passed++;
-  }
-  if (joined === 0) {
-    throw new ValidationError(
-      "snapshotFromSentinelSet: no judge scores joined the golden set \u2014 itemIds mismatch or empty sentinel run"
-    );
-  }
-  const snapshot = { ...meta, metrics: { sentinelPassRate: passed / joined } };
-  validateSentinelSnapshot(snapshot);
-  return snapshot;
+	const tolerance = options.tolerance ?? .1;
+	if (!Number.isFinite(tolerance) || tolerance < 0) throw new ValidationError(`snapshotFromSentinelSet: tolerance must be a finite number ≥ 0, got ${tolerance}`);
+	const goldenById = /* @__PURE__ */ new Map();
+	for (const item of golden) {
+		if (!Number.isFinite(item.humanScore)) throw new ValidationError(`snapshotFromSentinelSet: golden item "${item.itemId}" has a non-finite humanScore`);
+		if (goldenById.has(item.itemId)) throw new ValidationError(`snapshotFromSentinelSet: duplicate golden itemId "${item.itemId}"`);
+		goldenById.set(item.itemId, item.humanScore);
+	}
+	let joined = 0;
+	let passed = 0;
+	for (const s of scores) {
+		const human = goldenById.get(s.itemId);
+		if (human === void 0) continue;
+		if (!Number.isFinite(s.score)) throw new ValidationError(`snapshotFromSentinelSet: judge score for item "${s.itemId}" is not finite`);
+		joined++;
+		if (Math.abs(s.score - human) <= tolerance) passed++;
+	}
+	if (joined === 0) throw new ValidationError("snapshotFromSentinelSet: no judge scores joined the golden set — itemIds mismatch or empty sentinel run");
+	const snapshot = {
+		...meta,
+		metrics: { sentinelPassRate: passed / joined }
+	};
+	validateSentinelSnapshot(snapshot);
+	return snapshot;
 }
 function inMemorySentinelStore(initial = []) {
-  for (const s of initial) validateSentinelSnapshot(s);
-  const items = initial.map((s) => ({ ...s, metrics: { ...s.metrics } }));
-  return {
-    async append(snapshot) {
-      validateSentinelSnapshot(snapshot);
-      items.push({ ...snapshot, metrics: { ...snapshot.metrics } });
-    },
-    async history(judgeId) {
-      const all = items.map((s) => ({ ...s, metrics: { ...s.metrics } }));
-      return judgeId === void 0 ? all : all.filter((s) => s.judgeId === judgeId);
-    }
-  };
+	for (const s of initial) validateSentinelSnapshot(s);
+	const items = initial.map((s) => ({
+		...s,
+		metrics: { ...s.metrics }
+	}));
+	return {
+		async append(snapshot) {
+			validateSentinelSnapshot(snapshot);
+			items.push({
+				...snapshot,
+				metrics: { ...snapshot.metrics }
+			});
+		},
+		async history(judgeId) {
+			const all = items.map((s) => ({
+				...s,
+				metrics: { ...s.metrics }
+			}));
+			return judgeId === void 0 ? all : all.filter((s) => s.judgeId === judgeId);
+		}
+	};
 }
+/**
+* JSONL store — one snapshot per line, appended atomically per call.
+* A corrupt or shape-invalid line is a loud error naming the file and
+* line number: a sentinel history that silently drops records would
+* defeat the drift detection it exists to provide.
+*/
 function fileSentinelStore(path) {
-  return {
-    async append(snapshot) {
-      validateSentinelSnapshot(snapshot);
-      const fs = await import("fs/promises");
-      const pathMod = await import("path");
-      await fs.mkdir(pathMod.dirname(path), { recursive: true });
-      await fs.appendFile(path, `${JSON.stringify(snapshot)}
-`, "utf8");
-    },
-    async history(judgeId) {
-      const fs = await import("fs/promises");
-      let raw;
-      try {
-        raw = await fs.readFile(path, "utf8");
-      } catch (err) {
-        if (err.code === "ENOENT") return [];
-        throw err;
-      }
-      const lines = raw.split("\n");
-      const snapshots = [];
-      for (let i = 0; i < lines.length; i++) {
-        const line = lines[i];
-        if (line.trim().length === 0) continue;
-        let parsed;
-        try {
-          parsed = JSON.parse(line);
-        } catch (err) {
-          throw new ValidationError(
-            `judge-sentinel: store at ${path} has a corrupt JSONL line ${i + 1}: ${err.message}`
-          );
-        }
-        const snapshot = parsed;
-        validateSentinelSnapshot(snapshot, `${path}:${i + 1}`);
-        snapshots.push(snapshot);
-      }
-      return judgeId === void 0 ? snapshots : snapshots.filter((s) => s.judgeId === judgeId);
-    }
-  };
+	return {
+		async append(snapshot) {
+			validateSentinelSnapshot(snapshot);
+			const fs = await import("node:fs/promises");
+			const pathMod = await import("node:path");
+			await fs.mkdir(pathMod.dirname(path), { recursive: true });
+			await fs.appendFile(path, `${JSON.stringify(snapshot)}\n`, "utf8");
+		},
+		async history(judgeId) {
+			const fs = await import("node:fs/promises");
+			let raw;
+			try {
+				raw = await fs.readFile(path, "utf8");
+			} catch (err) {
+				if (err.code === "ENOENT") return [];
+				throw err;
+			}
+			const lines = raw.split("\n");
+			const snapshots = [];
+			for (let i = 0; i < lines.length; i++) {
+				const line = lines[i];
+				if (line.trim().length === 0) continue;
+				let parsed;
+				try {
+					parsed = JSON.parse(line);
+				} catch (err) {
+					throw new ValidationError(`judge-sentinel: store at ${path} has a corrupt JSONL line ${i + 1}: ${err.message}`);
+				}
+				const snapshot = parsed;
+				validateSentinelSnapshot(snapshot, `${path}:${i + 1}`);
+				snapshots.push(snapshot);
+			}
+			return judgeId === void 0 ? snapshots : snapshots.filter((s) => s.judgeId === judgeId);
+		}
+	};
 }
-var MS_PER_DAY = 864e5;
+const MS_PER_DAY = 864e5;
 function judgeSentinelReport(history, opts) {
-  const asOfMs = parseIso(opts.asOf, "asOf");
-  const minIrr = opts.thresholds?.minIrr ?? 0.6;
-  const maxKappaDrop = opts.thresholds?.maxKappaDrop ?? 0.15;
-  const maxSentinelDrop = opts.thresholds?.maxSentinelDrop ?? 0.1;
-  const staleAfterDays = opts.thresholds?.staleAfterDays ?? 30;
-  const byJudge = /* @__PURE__ */ new Map();
-  for (const snapshot of history) {
-    validateSentinelSnapshot(snapshot);
-    const atMs = parseIso(snapshot.at, `snapshot.at (judge "${snapshot.judgeId}")`);
-    const arr = byJudge.get(snapshot.judgeId) ?? [];
-    arr.push({ ...snapshot, atMs });
-    byJudge.set(snapshot.judgeId, arr);
-  }
-  const perJudge = [];
-  const alarms = [];
-  const insufficientHistory = [];
-  for (const judgeId of [...byJudge.keys()].sort()) {
-    const snaps = byJudge.get(judgeId).sort((a, b) => a.atMs - b.atMs);
-    const newest = snaps[snaps.length - 1];
-    const ageDays = (asOfMs - newest.atMs) / MS_PER_DAY;
-    if (ageDays > staleAfterDays) {
-      alarms.push(
-        `judge "${judgeId}": stale \u2014 newest snapshot ${newest.at} is ${ageDays.toFixed(1)}d old vs asOf (limit ${staleAfterDays}d)`
-      );
-    }
-    let changeIdx = -1;
-    for (let i = 1; i < snaps.length; i++) {
-      if (snaps[i].judgeModel !== snaps[i - 1].judgeModel) changeIdx = i;
-    }
-    if (changeIdx >= 0) {
-      const recalibrated = snaps.slice(changeIdx).some(
-        (s) => Number.isFinite(s.metrics.calibrationKappa) || Number.isFinite(s.metrics.sentinelPassRate)
-      );
-      if (!recalibrated) {
-        alarms.push(
-          `judge "${judgeId}": model changed "${snaps[changeIdx - 1].judgeModel}" \u2192 "${snaps[changeIdx].judgeModel}" at ${snaps[changeIdx].at} with no post-change calibration snapshot \u2014 silent-upgrade trap; rerun calibrateJudge or the sentinel set against the new model`
-        );
-      }
-    }
-    for (const metric of SENTINEL_METRIC_NAMES) {
-      const values = snaps.filter((s) => typeof s.metrics[metric] === "number").map((s) => s.metrics[metric]);
-      if (values.length === 0) continue;
-      const convergence = analyzeSeries(values, opts.convergence);
-      if (convergence.state === "insufficient-data")
-        insufficientHistory.push(`${judgeId}:${metric}`);
-      const current = values[values.length - 1];
-      const baseline = values[0];
-      const drift = current - baseline;
-      const reasons = [];
-      if (convergence.state === "drifting-down") {
-        reasons.push(
-          `convergence state drifting-down (tail run ${convergence.tailRun}, window mean ${convergence.windowMean.toFixed(3)})`
-        );
-      }
-      if (metric === "irr" && current < minIrr) {
-        reasons.push(`irr ${current.toFixed(3)} below floor ${minIrr}`);
-      }
-      if (metric === "calibrationKappa" && baseline - current > maxKappaDrop) {
-        reasons.push(
-          `calibrationKappa dropped ${(baseline - current).toFixed(3)} from baseline ${baseline.toFixed(3)} (limit ${maxKappaDrop})`
-        );
-      }
-      if (metric === "sentinelPassRate" && baseline - current > maxSentinelDrop) {
-        reasons.push(
-          `sentinelPassRate dropped ${(baseline - current).toFixed(3)} from baseline ${baseline.toFixed(3)} (limit ${maxSentinelDrop})`
-        );
-      }
-      const alarmed = reasons.length > 0;
-      const trend = {
-        judgeId,
-        metric,
-        state: convergence.state,
-        current,
-        baseline,
-        drift,
-        alarmed
-      };
-      if (alarmed) {
-        trend.reason = reasons.join("; ");
-        alarms.push(`judge "${judgeId}" ${metric}: ${trend.reason}`);
-      }
-      perJudge.push(trend);
-    }
-  }
-  return { perJudge, alarms, healthy: alarms.length === 0, insufficientHistory };
+	const asOfMs = parseIso(opts.asOf, "asOf");
+	const minIrr = opts.thresholds?.minIrr ?? .6;
+	const maxKappaDrop = opts.thresholds?.maxKappaDrop ?? .15;
+	const maxSentinelDrop = opts.thresholds?.maxSentinelDrop ?? .1;
+	const staleAfterDays = opts.thresholds?.staleAfterDays ?? 30;
+	const byJudge = /* @__PURE__ */ new Map();
+	for (const snapshot of history) {
+		validateSentinelSnapshot(snapshot);
+		const atMs = parseIso(snapshot.at, `snapshot.at (judge "${snapshot.judgeId}")`);
+		const arr = byJudge.get(snapshot.judgeId) ?? [];
+		arr.push({
+			...snapshot,
+			atMs
+		});
+		byJudge.set(snapshot.judgeId, arr);
+	}
+	const perJudge = [];
+	const alarms = [];
+	const insufficientHistory = [];
+	for (const judgeId of [...byJudge.keys()].sort()) {
+		const snaps = byJudge.get(judgeId).sort((a, b) => a.atMs - b.atMs);
+		const newest = snaps[snaps.length - 1];
+		const ageDays = (asOfMs - newest.atMs) / MS_PER_DAY;
+		if (ageDays > staleAfterDays) alarms.push(`judge "${judgeId}": stale — newest snapshot ${newest.at} is ${ageDays.toFixed(1)}d old vs asOf (limit ${staleAfterDays}d)`);
+		let changeIdx = -1;
+		for (let i = 1; i < snaps.length; i++) if (snaps[i].judgeModel !== snaps[i - 1].judgeModel) changeIdx = i;
+		if (changeIdx >= 0) {
+			if (!snaps.slice(changeIdx).some((s) => Number.isFinite(s.metrics.calibrationKappa) || Number.isFinite(s.metrics.sentinelPassRate))) alarms.push(`judge "${judgeId}": model changed "${snaps[changeIdx - 1].judgeModel}" → "${snaps[changeIdx].judgeModel}" at ${snaps[changeIdx].at} with no post-change calibration snapshot — silent-upgrade trap; rerun calibrateJudge or the sentinel set against the new model`);
+		}
+		for (const metric of SENTINEL_METRIC_NAMES) {
+			const values = snaps.filter((s) => typeof s.metrics[metric] === "number").map((s) => s.metrics[metric]);
+			if (values.length === 0) continue;
+			const convergence = analyzeSeries(values, opts.convergence);
+			if (convergence.state === "insufficient-data") insufficientHistory.push(`${judgeId}:${metric}`);
+			const current = values[values.length - 1];
+			const baseline = values[0];
+			const drift = current - baseline;
+			const reasons = [];
+			if (convergence.state === "drifting-down") reasons.push(`convergence state drifting-down (tail run ${convergence.tailRun}, window mean ${convergence.windowMean.toFixed(3)})`);
+			if (metric === "irr" && current < minIrr) reasons.push(`irr ${current.toFixed(3)} below floor ${minIrr}`);
+			if (metric === "calibrationKappa" && baseline - current > maxKappaDrop) reasons.push(`calibrationKappa dropped ${(baseline - current).toFixed(3)} from baseline ${baseline.toFixed(3)} (limit ${maxKappaDrop})`);
+			if (metric === "sentinelPassRate" && baseline - current > maxSentinelDrop) reasons.push(`sentinelPassRate dropped ${(baseline - current).toFixed(3)} from baseline ${baseline.toFixed(3)} (limit ${maxSentinelDrop})`);
+			const alarmed = reasons.length > 0;
+			const trend = {
+				judgeId,
+				metric,
+				state: convergence.state,
+				current,
+				baseline,
+				drift,
+				alarmed
+			};
+			if (alarmed) {
+				trend.reason = reasons.join("; ");
+				alarms.push(`judge "${judgeId}" ${metric}: ${trend.reason}`);
+			}
+			perJudge.push(trend);
+		}
+	}
+	return {
+		perJudge,
+		alarms,
+		healthy: alarms.length === 0,
+		insufficientHistory
+	};
 }
+/**
+* The object a campaign attaches to its verdicts. Compute it from the
+* sentinel report in a post-campaign hook (or a nightly job feeding the
+* next day's campaigns) and store it alongside the verdict payload.
+* `healthy: false` means the judges that produced those verdicts have an
+* unresolved drift / decay / silent-upgrade / staleness alarm — treat the
+* verdicts as carrying an integrity warning until recalibration clears it.
+*/
 function evalHealthStamp(report) {
-  return { healthy: report.healthy, alarms: [...report.alarms] };
+	return {
+		healthy: report.healthy,
+		alarms: [...report.alarms]
+	};
 }
-export {
-  FileSystemOutcomeStore,
-  InMemoryOutcomeStore,
-  SENTINEL_METRIC_NAMES,
-  calibrationCurve,
-  calibrationFromPairs,
-  correlationStudy,
-  evalHealthStamp,
-  fileSentinelStore,
-  inMemorySentinelStore,
-  judgeSentinelReport,
-  rubricPredictiveValidity,
-  snapshotFromAgreement,
-  snapshotFromCalibration,
-  snapshotFromSentinelSet,
-  validateSentinelSnapshot
-};
+//#endregion
+export { FileSystemOutcomeStore, InMemoryOutcomeStore, SENTINEL_METRIC_NAMES, calibrationCurve, calibrationFromPairs, correlationStudy, evalHealthStamp, fileSentinelStore, inMemorySentinelStore, judgeSentinelReport, rubricPredictiveValidity, snapshotFromAgreement, snapshotFromCalibration, snapshotFromSentinelSet, validateSentinelSnapshot };
+
 //# sourceMappingURL=index.js.map