@tangle-network/agent-eval 0.129.0 → 0.130.0

package/dist/baseline-HsBvw_dk.js

@@ -0,0 +1,550 @@
+import { i as cohensD } from "./statistics-CnnxdpOg.js";
+import { i as hasCapturedToolArgs, l as toolSpans, n as argHash, r as groupBy } from "./query-Di7eEQ79.js";
+//#region src/failure-taxonomy.ts
+const DEFAULT_RULES = [
+	{
+		id: "explicit-outcome",
+		match: ({ run }) => {
+			const fc = run.outcome?.failureClass;
+			if (fc && fc !== "unknown") return {
+				failureClass: fc,
+				reason: "outcome.failureClass set explicitly"
+			};
+			return null;
+		}
+	},
+	{
+		id: "knowledge-readiness-blocked",
+		match: ({ events }) => {
+			const event = events.find((e) => e.kind === "custom" && e.payload.kind === "readiness_scored" && e.payload.passed === false);
+			return event ? {
+				failureClass: "knowledge_readiness_blocked",
+				reason: "knowledge readiness report blocked execution",
+				triggerEventId: event.eventId
+			} : null;
+		}
+	},
+	{
+		id: "bad-integration-manifest",
+		match: ({ events }) => {
+			const event = events.find((e) => e.kind === "custom" && (e.payload.kind === "integration_manifest_validated" && e.payload.valid === false || e.payload.kind === "integration_invoke_failed" && e.payload.code === "manifest_invalid"));
+			return event ? {
+				failureClass: "bad_integration_manifest",
+				reason: "integration manifest validation failed before launch",
+				triggerEventId: event.eventId
+			} : null;
+		}
+	},
+	{
+		id: "missing-integration-connection",
+		match: ({ events }) => {
+			const event = events.find((e) => e.kind === "custom" && e.payload.kind === "integration_manifest_resolved" && hasResolutionStatus(e.payload, "missing_connection"));
+			return event ? {
+				failureClass: "missing_integration_connection",
+				reason: "required integration connection was missing",
+				triggerEventId: event.eventId
+			} : null;
+		}
+	},
+	{
+		id: "missing-integration-scope",
+		match: ({ events }) => {
+			const event = events.find((e) => e.kind === "custom" && (e.payload.kind === "integration_manifest_resolved" && hasMissingScopes(e.payload) || e.payload.kind === "integration_invoke_failed" && e.payload.code === "scope_denied"));
+			return event ? {
+				failureClass: "missing_integration_scope",
+				reason: "integration grant or connection lacks required scopes",
+				triggerEventId: event.eventId
+			} : null;
+		}
+	},
+	{
+		id: "integration-approval-required",
+		match: ({ events }) => {
+			const event = events.find((e) => e.kind === "custom" && (e.payload.kind === "integration_invoke" && e.payload.status === "approval_required" || e.payload.kind === "integration_invoke_failed" && e.payload.code === "approval_required" || e.payload.kind === "integration_approval_required"));
+			return event ? {
+				failureClass: "integration_approval_required",
+				reason: "integration write paused for user approval",
+				triggerEventId: event.eventId
+			} : null;
+		}
+	},
+	{
+		id: "integration-auth-expired",
+		match: ({ events }) => {
+			const event = events.find((e) => e.kind === "custom" && e.payload.kind === "integration_invoke_failed" && (e.payload.code === "auth_expired" || e.payload.code === "connection_not_active" || e.payload.code === "capability_expired" || e.payload.status === "expired"));
+			return event ? {
+				failureClass: "integration_auth_expired",
+				reason: "integration connection or capability expired",
+				triggerEventId: event.eventId
+			} : null;
+		}
+	},
+	{
+		id: "unsafe-integration-write-denied",
+		match: ({ events }) => {
+			const event = events.find((e) => e.kind === "custom" && e.payload.kind === "integration_invoke_failed" && (e.payload.code === "unsafe_write_denied" || e.payload.code === "policy_denied" || e.payload.code === "action_denied"));
+			return event ? {
+				failureClass: "unsafe_integration_write_denied",
+				reason: "integration write was denied by policy or capability scope",
+				triggerEventId: event.eventId
+			} : null;
+		}
+	},
+	{
+		id: "integration-provider-failure",
+		match: ({ events }) => {
+			const event = events.find((e) => e.kind === "custom" && e.payload.kind === "integration_invoke_failed" && ![
+				"scope_denied",
+				"approval_required",
+				"auth_expired",
+				"connection_not_active",
+				"capability_expired",
+				"unsafe_write_denied",
+				"policy_denied",
+				"action_denied",
+				"manifest_invalid"
+			].includes(String(e.payload.code)));
+			return event ? {
+				failureClass: "integration_provider_failure",
+				reason: "integration provider invocation failed",
+				triggerEventId: event.eventId
+			} : null;
+		}
+	},
+	{
+		id: "missing-credentials",
+		match: ({ events }) => {
+			const event = events.find((e) => e.kind === "custom" && e.payload.kind === "knowledge_gap" && e.payload.category === "credential_or_secret");
+			return event ? {
+				failureClass: "missing_credentials",
+				reason: "required credential or secret was missing",
+				triggerEventId: event.eventId
+			} : null;
+		}
+	},
+	{
+		id: "bad-retrieval",
+		match: ({ run, spans }) => {
+			if (run.outcome?.pass !== false) return null;
+			const retrieval = spans.find((s) => s.kind === "retrieval" && (s.hits.length === 0 || s.hits.every((hit) => hit.score <= 0)));
+			return retrieval ? {
+				failureClass: "bad_retrieval",
+				reason: "retrieval returned no useful hits for a failed run",
+				triggerSpanId: retrieval.spanId
+			} : null;
+		}
+	},
+	{
+		id: "insufficient-evidence",
+		match: ({ events }) => {
+			const event = events.find((e) => e.kind === "custom" && e.payload.kind === "knowledge_gap" && e.payload.reason === "insufficient_evidence");
+			return event ? {
+				failureClass: "insufficient_evidence",
+				reason: "task proceeded with insufficient supporting evidence",
+				triggerEventId: event.eventId
+			} : null;
+		}
+	},
+	{
+		id: "contradictory-evidence",
+		match: ({ events }) => {
+			const event = events.find((e) => e.kind === "custom" && e.payload.kind === "knowledge_gap" && e.payload.reason === "contradictory_evidence");
+			return event ? {
+				failureClass: "contradictory_evidence",
+				reason: "supporting evidence contradicted itself",
+				triggerEventId: event.eventId
+			} : null;
+		}
+	},
+	{
+		id: "budget-breach",
+		match: ({ events }) => {
+			const breach = events.find((e) => e.kind === "budget_breach");
+			return breach ? {
+				failureClass: "budget_exceeded",
+				reason: `budget breached on ${breach.payload.dimension ?? "unknown dimension"}`,
+				triggerEventId: breach.eventId
+			} : null;
+		}
+	},
+	{
+		id: "policy-violation",
+		match: ({ events }) => {
+			const e = events.find((x) => x.kind === "policy_violation");
+			return e ? {
+				failureClass: "policy_violation",
+				reason: "policy_violation event emitted",
+				triggerEventId: e.eventId
+			} : null;
+		}
+	},
+	{
+		id: "sandbox-failure",
+		match: ({ spans }) => {
+			const s = spans.find((x) => x.kind === "sandbox" && typeof x.exitCode === "number" && x.exitCode !== 0);
+			if (!s) return null;
+			return {
+				failureClass: "sandbox_failure",
+				reason: `sandbox exited ${s.exitCode}`,
+				triggerSpanId: s.spanId
+			};
+		}
+	},
+	{
+		id: "timeout",
+		match: ({ run, events }) => {
+			if (run.status !== "aborted") return null;
+			const hasTimeout = events.some((e) => e.kind === "error" && String(e.payload.reason ?? "").toLowerCase().includes("timeout"));
+			const note = (run.outcome?.notes ?? "").toLowerCase();
+			if (hasTimeout || note.includes("timeout") || note.includes("deadline")) return {
+				failureClass: "timeout",
+				reason: "timeout signal observed"
+			};
+			return null;
+		}
+	},
+	{
+		id: "tool-recovery-failure",
+		match: ({ spans }) => {
+			const tools = spans.filter((s) => s.kind === "tool");
+			const byTool = /* @__PURE__ */ new Map();
+			for (const t of tools) {
+				const name = t.toolName;
+				const arr = byTool.get(name) ?? [];
+				arr.push(t);
+				byTool.set(name, arr);
+			}
+			for (const [name, arr] of byTool) {
+				const errs = arr.filter((s) => s.status === "error");
+				if (errs.length >= 3 && errs.length === arr.length) return {
+					failureClass: "tool_recovery_failure",
+					reason: `${errs.length} consecutive errors on tool "${name}"`,
+					triggerSpanId: errs[errs.length - 1].spanId
+				};
+			}
+			return null;
+		}
+	},
+	{
+		id: "tool-selection-error",
+		match: ({ run, spans }) => {
+			if (run.outcome?.pass !== false) return null;
+			const hasToolsAvailable = spans.some((s) => s.kind === "agent" && s.attributes?.toolsAvailable !== void 0 && s.attributes?.toolsAvailable > 0);
+			const tools = spans.filter((s) => s.kind === "tool");
+			if (hasToolsAvailable && tools.length === 0) return {
+				failureClass: "tool_selection_error",
+				reason: "tools were available but none were called"
+			};
+			return null;
+		}
+	},
+	{
+		id: "format-drift",
+		match: ({ spans }) => {
+			const judge = spans.find((s) => s.kind === "judge" && s.dimension === "format" && s.score < .5);
+			return judge ? {
+				failureClass: "format_drift",
+				reason: "format judge scored below 0.5",
+				triggerSpanId: judge.spanId
+			} : null;
+		}
+	}
+];
+function hasResolutionStatus(payload, status) {
+	if (status === "missing_connection" && stringArray(payload.missingConnections).length > 0) return true;
+	return resolutionItems(payload).some((item) => item.status === status);
+}
+function hasMissingScopes(payload) {
+	if (stringArray(payload.missingScopes).length > 0) return true;
+	return resolutionItems(payload).some((item) => Array.isArray(item.missingScopes) && item.missingScopes.length > 0);
+}
+function resolutionItems(payload) {
+	return [
+		...records(payload.missing),
+		...records(payload.optionalMissing),
+		...records(payload.ready)
+	];
+}
+function records(value) {
+	if (!Array.isArray(value)) return [];
+	return value.filter((item) => Boolean(item) && typeof item === "object" && !Array.isArray(item));
+}
+function stringArray(value) {
+	return Array.isArray(value) ? value.filter((item) => typeof item === "string") : [];
+}
+/** Classify the failure mode of a run using an ordered rule list. */
+function classifyFailure(ctx, rules = DEFAULT_RULES) {
+	if (ctx.run.outcome?.pass !== false && ctx.run.status === "completed") return {
+		failureClass: "success",
+		reason: "run completed with pass=true (or no explicit fail)"
+	};
+	for (const rule of rules) {
+		const hit = rule.match(ctx);
+		if (hit) return hit;
+	}
+	return {
+		failureClass: "unknown",
+		reason: "no rule matched; run failed for unclassified reason"
+	};
+}
+//#endregion
+//#region src/tool-use-metrics.ts
+/**
+* Tool-use metrics — derived purely from trace data.
+*
+* No scoring assumptions: consumers supply optional ground-truth tool
+* selections per turn + optional "information used downstream" signals.
+* Without those, we still compute descriptive metrics (error rate,
+* retry rate, duplicate-call rate) that are useful on their own.
+*/
+async function computeToolUseMetrics(store, runId, options = {}) {
+	const tools = await toolSpans(store, runId);
+	if (tools.length === 0) return {
+		runId,
+		totalCalls: 0,
+		callsWithCapturedArgs: 0,
+		byTool: {},
+		errorRate: 0,
+		duplicateRate: 0,
+		retryRate: 0
+	};
+	const byTool = {};
+	let totalErrors = 0;
+	let totalDuplicates = 0;
+	let callsWithCapturedArgs = 0;
+	const sortedTools = [...tools].sort((a, b) => a.startedAt - b.startedAt);
+	const seenSignatures = /* @__PURE__ */ new Set();
+	for (const t of sortedTools) {
+		byTool[t.toolName] ??= {
+			calls: 0,
+			callsWithCapturedArgs: 0,
+			errors: 0,
+			avgLatencyMs: 0,
+			duplicates: 0
+		};
+		const stat = byTool[t.toolName];
+		stat.calls += 1;
+		if (t.status === "error") {
+			stat.errors += 1;
+			totalErrors += 1;
+		}
+		if (typeof t.latencyMs === "number") stat.avgLatencyMs += t.latencyMs;
+		if (hasCapturedToolArgs(t)) {
+			callsWithCapturedArgs += 1;
+			stat.callsWithCapturedArgs += 1;
+			const sig = `${t.toolName}|${argHash(t.args)}`;
+			if (seenSignatures.has(sig)) {
+				stat.duplicates += 1;
+				totalDuplicates += 1;
+			}
+			seenSignatures.add(sig);
+		}
+	}
+	for (const stat of Object.values(byTool)) stat.avgLatencyMs = stat.calls > 0 ? stat.avgLatencyMs / stat.calls : 0;
+	let retryOpportunities = 0;
+	let retriesFollowed = 0;
+	for (const [, arr] of groupBy(sortedTools, (t) => t.toolName)) for (let i = 0; i < arr.length; i++) {
+		if (arr[i].status !== "error") continue;
+		retryOpportunities += 1;
+		if (arr[i + 1]) retriesFollowed += 1;
+	}
+	const retryRate = retryOpportunities > 0 ? retriesFollowed / retryOpportunities : 0;
+	let selectionAccuracy;
+	if (options.selectionLabels) {
+		const labeled = sortedTools.filter((t) => t.spanId in options.selectionLabels);
+		if (labeled.length > 0) selectionAccuracy = labeled.filter((t) => options.selectionLabels[t.spanId]).length / labeled.length;
+	}
+	return {
+		runId,
+		totalCalls: sortedTools.length,
+		callsWithCapturedArgs,
+		byTool,
+		errorRate: totalErrors / sortedTools.length,
+		duplicateRate: callsWithCapturedArgs > 0 ? totalDuplicates / callsWithCapturedArgs : 0,
+		retryRate,
+		selectionAccuracy
+	};
+}
+//#endregion
+//#region src/baseline.ts
+/**
+* Baseline regression detection.
+*
+* Lifted from ADC baseline.ts. Every promotion-blocking signal boils down
+* to: "is this run measurably worse than baseline?" — with enough
+* statistical rigor to distinguish noise from drift.
+*
+* Uses:
+*   - Welch's t-test (unequal variance) for per-metric mean comparison
+*   - Cohen's d for effect size magnitude
+*   - IQR for stability flag (unstable samples can't be trusted for comparisons)
+*
+* Returns a structured verdict: improved | regressed | stable | unstable.
+*/
+/**
+* Compare candidate samples against baseline per metric. Verdict logic:
+*   - unstable: IQR/|mean| > threshold on either set — not enough signal
+*   - improved: meaningful effect in the "better" direction AND p < alpha
+*   - regressed: meaningful effect in the "worse" direction AND p < alpha
+*   - stable: otherwise (no significant change)
+*/
+function compareToBaseline(samples, options = {}) {
+	const effectThreshold = options.effectThreshold ?? .5;
+	const alpha = options.alpha ?? .05;
+	const cvThreshold = options.unstableCvThreshold ?? .3;
+	const metrics = samples.map((s) => {
+		if (s.baseline.length < 2 || s.candidate.length < 2) throw new Error(`compareToBaseline: need ≥2 samples per side for "${s.metric}"`);
+		const bMean = mean(s.baseline);
+		const cMean = mean(s.candidate);
+		const delta = cMean - bMean;
+		const d = cohensD(s.baseline, s.candidate);
+		const { t, df, p } = welchsTTest(s.baseline, s.candidate);
+		const baselineIqr = iqr(s.baseline);
+		const candidateIqr = iqr(s.candidate);
+		const baselineStable = baselineIqr / Math.max(Math.abs(bMean), 1e-9) <= cvThreshold;
+		const candidateStable = candidateIqr / Math.max(Math.abs(cMean), 1e-9) <= cvThreshold;
+		const stable = baselineStable && candidateStable;
+		const reportedIqr = Math.max(baselineIqr, candidateIqr);
+		let verdict;
+		if (!stable) verdict = "unstable";
+		else if (p < alpha && Math.abs(d) >= effectThreshold) verdict = (s.higherIsBetter ? delta > 0 : delta < 0) ? "improved" : "regressed";
+		else verdict = "stable";
+		return {
+			metric: s.metric,
+			baselineMean: bMean,
+			candidateMean: cMean,
+			delta,
+			cohensD: d,
+			welchT: t,
+			welchDf: df,
+			welchP: p,
+			stable,
+			iqr: reportedIqr,
+			verdict
+		};
+	});
+	return {
+		metrics,
+		hasRegression: metrics.some((m) => m.verdict === "regressed"),
+		hasUnstable: metrics.some((m) => m.verdict === "unstable")
+	};
+}
+function mean(xs) {
+	return xs.reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0) / xs.length;
+}
+/** Inter-quartile range; 0 when the sample has no spread. */
+function iqr(xs) {
+	if (xs.length === 0) return 0;
+	const sorted = [...xs].sort((a, b) => a - b);
+	const q = (p) => {
+		const idx = p * (sorted.length - 1);
+		const lo = Math.floor(idx);
+		const hi = Math.ceil(idx);
+		return sorted[lo] + (sorted[hi] - sorted[lo]) * (idx - lo);
+	};
+	return q(.75) - q(.25);
+}
+/**
+* Welch's t-test — unequal-variance two-sample t. Uses the same Student-t
+* CDF as `pairedTTest` (via incomplete beta); falls back to normal tail
+* when df is large.
+*/
+function welchsTTest(a, b) {
+	if (a.length < 2 || b.length < 2) return {
+		t: 0,
+		df: 0,
+		p: 1
+	};
+	const mA = mean(a);
+	const mB = mean(b);
+	const vA = variance(a, mA);
+	const vB = variance(b, mB);
+	const seSquared = vA / a.length + vB / b.length;
+	if (seSquared === 0) return {
+		t: mA === mB ? 0 : Infinity,
+		df: 0,
+		p: mA === mB ? 1 : 0
+	};
+	const t = (mB - mA) / Math.sqrt(seSquared);
+	const df = seSquared * seSquared / ((vA / a.length) ** 2 / (a.length - 1) + (vB / b.length) ** 2 / (b.length - 1));
+	return {
+		t,
+		df,
+		p: 2 * (1 - studentTCdf(Math.abs(t), df))
+	};
+}
+function variance(xs, m) {
+	return xs.reduce((acc, x) => acc + (x - m) ** 2, 0) / (xs.length - 1);
+}
+function studentTCdf(t, df) {
+	if (df <= 0) return .5;
+	if (df > 100) return normalCdf(t);
+	const ib = incompleteBeta(df / (df + t * t), df / 2, .5);
+	return t >= 0 ? 1 - .5 * ib : .5 * ib;
+}
+function incompleteBeta(x, a, b) {
+	if (x <= 0) return 0;
+	if (x >= 1) return 1;
+	const lnBeta = lnGamma(a) + lnGamma(b) - lnGamma(a + b);
+	const front = Math.exp(Math.log(x) * a + Math.log(1 - x) * b - lnBeta) / a;
+	let c = 1;
+	let d = 1 - (a + b) * x / (a + 1);
+	if (Math.abs(d) < 1e-30) d = 1e-30;
+	d = 1 / d;
+	let f = d;
+	for (let m = 1; m <= 200; m++) {
+		const m2 = 2 * m;
+		let num = m * (b - m) * x / ((a + m2 - 1) * (a + m2));
+		d = 1 + num * d;
+		if (Math.abs(d) < 1e-30) d = 1e-30;
+		c = 1 + num / c;
+		if (Math.abs(c) < 1e-30) c = 1e-30;
+		d = 1 / d;
+		f *= d * c;
+		num = -((a + m) * (a + b + m) * x) / ((a + m2) * (a + m2 + 1));
+		d = 1 + num * d;
+		if (Math.abs(d) < 1e-30) d = 1e-30;
+		c = 1 + num / c;
+		if (Math.abs(c) < 1e-30) c = 1e-30;
+		d = 1 / d;
+		const delta = d * c;
+		f *= delta;
+		if (Math.abs(delta - 1) < 3e-7) break;
+	}
+	return front * f;
+}
+function lnGamma(z) {
+	const coefs = [
+		.9999999999998099,
+		676.5203681218851,
+		-1259.1392167224028,
+		771.3234287776531,
+		-176.6150291621406,
+		12.507343278686905,
+		-.13857109526572012,
+		9984369578019572e-21,
+		1.5056327351493116e-7
+	];
+	if (z < .5) return Math.log(Math.PI / Math.sin(Math.PI * z)) - lnGamma(1 - z);
+	z -= 1;
+	let x = coefs[0];
+	for (let i = 1; i < 9; i++) x += coefs[i] / (z + i);
+	const t = z + 7.5;
+	return .5 * Math.log(2 * Math.PI) + (z + .5) * Math.log(t) - t + Math.log(x);
+}
+function normalCdf(x) {
+	const a1 = .254829592;
+	const a2 = -.284496736;
+	const a3 = 1.421413741;
+	const a4 = -1.453152027;
+	const a5 = 1.061405429;
+	const p = .3275911;
+	const sign = x < 0 ? -1 : 1;
+	const absX = Math.abs(x);
+	const t = 1 / (1 + p * absX);
+	return .5 * (1 + sign * (1 - ((((a5 * t + a4) * t + a3) * t + a2) * t + a1) * t * Math.exp(-absX * absX / 2)));
+}
+//#endregion
+export { DEFAULT_RULES as a, computeToolUseMetrics as i, iqr as n, classifyFailure as o, welchsTTest as r, compareToBaseline as t };
+
+//# sourceMappingURL=baseline-HsBvw_dk.js.map

package/dist/baseline-HsBvw_dk.js.map

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+{"version":3,"file":"baseline-HsBvw_dk.js","names":[],"sources":["../src/failure-taxonomy.ts","../src/tool-use-metrics.ts","../src/baseline.ts"],"sourcesContent":["/**\n * Failure taxonomy — canonical classes + a default classifier.\n *\n * Every failed run should end up in a named class. The classifier here\n * is rule-based (fast, deterministic); an LLM fallback can be added by\n * the consumer for novel cases and trained into the rule base over time.\n *\n * Consumers call `classifyFailure(run, spans, events)` and persist the\n * returned class as `Run.outcome.failureClass`.\n */\n\nimport type { FailureClass, Run, Span, TraceEvent } from './trace/schema'\nimport { FAILURE_CLASSES } from './trace/schema'\n\nexport { FAILURE_CLASSES, type FailureClass }\n\nexport interface FailureContext {\n  run: Run\n  spans: Span[]\n  events: TraceEvent[]\n}\n\nexport interface FailureClassification {\n  failureClass: FailureClass\n  reason: string\n  triggerSpanId?: string\n  triggerEventId?: string\n}\n\n/** Ordered rules — first match wins. */\nexport interface FailureRule {\n  id: string\n  match: (ctx: FailureContext) => {\n    failureClass: FailureClass\n    reason: string\n    triggerSpanId?: string\n    triggerEventId?: string\n  } | null\n}\n\nexport const DEFAULT_RULES: FailureRule[] = [\n  // Outcome already named? Respect it.\n  {\n    id: 'explicit-outcome',\n    match: ({ run }) => {\n      const fc = run.outcome?.failureClass\n      if (fc && fc !== 'unknown')\n        return { failureClass: fc, reason: 'outcome.failureClass set explicitly' }\n      return null\n    },\n  },\n  {\n    id: 'knowledge-readiness-blocked',\n    match: ({ events }) => {\n      const event = events.find(\n        (e) =>\n          e.kind === 'custom' &&\n          e.payload.kind === 'readiness_scored' &&\n          e.payload.passed === false,\n      )\n      return event\n        ? {\n            failureClass: 'knowledge_readiness_blocked',\n            reason: 'knowledge readiness report blocked execution',\n            triggerEventId: event.eventId,\n          }\n        : null\n    },\n  },\n  {\n    id: 'bad-integration-manifest',\n    match: ({ events }) => {\n      const event = events.find(\n        (e) =>\n          e.kind === 'custom' &&\n          ((e.payload.kind === 'integration_manifest_validated' && e.payload.valid === false) ||\n            (e.payload.kind === 'integration_invoke_failed' &&\n              e.payload.code === 'manifest_invalid')),\n      )\n      return event\n        ? {\n            failureClass: 'bad_integration_manifest',\n            reason: 'integration manifest validation failed before launch',\n            triggerEventId: event.eventId,\n          }\n        : null\n    },\n  },\n  {\n    id: 'missing-integration-connection',\n    match: ({ events }) => {\n      const event = events.find(\n        (e) =>\n          e.kind === 'custom' &&\n          e.payload.kind === 'integration_manifest_resolved' &&\n          hasResolutionStatus(e.payload, 'missing_connection'),\n      )\n      return event\n        ? {\n            failureClass: 'missing_integration_connection',\n            reason: 'required integration connection was missing',\n            triggerEventId: event.eventId,\n          }\n        : null\n    },\n  },\n  {\n    id: 'missing-integration-scope',\n    match: ({ events }) => {\n      const event = events.find(\n        (e) =>\n          e.kind === 'custom' &&\n          ((e.payload.kind === 'integration_manifest_resolved' && hasMissingScopes(e.payload)) ||\n            (e.payload.kind === 'integration_invoke_failed' && e.payload.code === 'scope_denied')),\n      )\n      return event\n        ? {\n            failureClass: 'missing_integration_scope',\n            reason: 'integration grant or connection lacks required scopes',\n            triggerEventId: event.eventId,\n          }\n        : null\n    },\n  },\n  {\n    id: 'integration-approval-required',\n    match: ({ events }) => {\n      const event = events.find(\n        (e) =>\n          e.kind === 'custom' &&\n          ((e.payload.kind === 'integration_invoke' && e.payload.status === 'approval_required') ||\n            (e.payload.kind === 'integration_invoke_failed' &&\n              e.payload.code === 'approval_required') ||\n            e.payload.kind === 'integration_approval_required'),\n      )\n      return event\n        ? {\n            failureClass: 'integration_approval_required',\n            reason: 'integration write paused for user approval',\n            triggerEventId: event.eventId,\n          }\n        : null\n    },\n  },\n  {\n    id: 'integration-auth-expired',\n    match: ({ events }) => {\n      const event = events.find(\n        (e) =>\n          e.kind === 'custom' &&\n          e.payload.kind === 'integration_invoke_failed' &&\n          (e.payload.code === 'auth_expired' ||\n            e.payload.code === 'connection_not_active' ||\n            e.payload.code === 'capability_expired' ||\n            e.payload.status === 'expired'),\n      )\n      return event\n        ? {\n            failureClass: 'integration_auth_expired',\n            reason: 'integration connection or capability expired',\n            triggerEventId: event.eventId,\n          }\n        : null\n    },\n  },\n  {\n    id: 'unsafe-integration-write-denied',\n    match: ({ events }) => {\n      const event = events.find(\n        (e) =>\n          e.kind === 'custom' &&\n          e.payload.kind === 'integration_invoke_failed' &&\n          (e.payload.code === 'unsafe_write_denied' ||\n            e.payload.code === 'policy_denied' ||\n            e.payload.code === 'action_denied'),\n      )\n      return event\n        ? {\n            failureClass: 'unsafe_integration_write_denied',\n            reason: 'integration write was denied by policy or capability scope',\n            triggerEventId: event.eventId,\n          }\n        : null\n    },\n  },\n  {\n    id: 'integration-provider-failure',\n    match: ({ events }) => {\n      const event = events.find(\n        (e) =>\n          e.kind === 'custom' &&\n          e.payload.kind === 'integration_invoke_failed' &&\n          ![\n            'scope_denied',\n            'approval_required',\n            'auth_expired',\n            'connection_not_active',\n            'capability_expired',\n            'unsafe_write_denied',\n            'policy_denied',\n            'action_denied',\n            'manifest_invalid',\n          ].includes(String(e.payload.code)),\n      )\n      return event\n        ? {\n            failureClass: 'integration_provider_failure',\n            reason: 'integration provider invocation failed',\n            triggerEventId: event.eventId,\n          }\n        : null\n    },\n  },\n  {\n    id: 'missing-credentials',\n    match: ({ events }) => {\n      const event = events.find(\n        (e) =>\n          e.kind === 'custom' &&\n          e.payload.kind === 'knowledge_gap' &&\n          e.payload.category === 'credential_or_secret',\n      )\n      return event\n        ? {\n            failureClass: 'missing_credentials',\n            reason: 'required credential or secret was missing',\n            triggerEventId: event.eventId,\n          }\n        : null\n    },\n  },\n  {\n    id: 'bad-retrieval',\n    match: ({ run, spans }) => {\n      if (run.outcome?.pass !== false) return null\n      const retrieval = spans.find(\n        (s) =>\n          s.kind === 'retrieval' && (s.hits.length === 0 || s.hits.every((hit) => hit.score <= 0)),\n      )\n      return retrieval\n        ? {\n            failureClass: 'bad_retrieval',\n            reason: 'retrieval returned no useful hits for a failed run',\n            triggerSpanId: retrieval.spanId,\n          }\n        : null\n    },\n  },\n  {\n    id: 'insufficient-evidence',\n    match: ({ events }) => {\n      const event = events.find(\n        (e) =>\n          e.kind === 'custom' &&\n          e.payload.kind === 'knowledge_gap' &&\n          e.payload.reason === 'insufficient_evidence',\n      )\n      return event\n        ? {\n            failureClass: 'insufficient_evidence',\n            reason: 'task proceeded with insufficient supporting evidence',\n            triggerEventId: event.eventId,\n          }\n        : null\n    },\n  },\n  {\n    id: 'contradictory-evidence',\n    match: ({ events }) => {\n      const event = events.find(\n        (e) =>\n          e.kind === 'custom' &&\n          e.payload.kind === 'knowledge_gap' &&\n          e.payload.reason === 'contradictory_evidence',\n      )\n      return event\n        ? {\n            failureClass: 'contradictory_evidence',\n            reason: 'supporting evidence contradicted itself',\n            triggerEventId: event.eventId,\n          }\n        : null\n    },\n  },\n  // Budget breach events\n  {\n    id: 'budget-breach',\n    match: ({ events }) => {\n      const breach = events.find((e) => e.kind === 'budget_breach')\n      return breach\n        ? {\n            failureClass: 'budget_exceeded',\n            reason: `budget breached on ${breach.payload.dimension ?? 'unknown dimension'}`,\n            triggerEventId: breach.eventId,\n          }\n        : null\n    },\n  },\n  // Policy violations\n  {\n    id: 'policy-violation',\n    match: ({ events }) => {\n      const e = events.find((x) => x.kind === 'policy_violation')\n      return e\n        ? {\n            failureClass: 'policy_violation',\n            reason: 'policy_violation event emitted',\n            triggerEventId: e.eventId,\n          }\n        : null\n    },\n  },\n  // Sandbox non-zero exit code\n  {\n    id: 'sandbox-failure',\n    match: ({ spans }) => {\n      const s = spans.find(\n        (x) => x.kind === 'sandbox' && typeof x.exitCode === 'number' && x.exitCode !== 0,\n      )\n      if (!s) return null\n      return {\n        failureClass: 'sandbox_failure',\n        reason: `sandbox exited ${(s as Extract<Span, { kind: 'sandbox' }>).exitCode}`,\n        triggerSpanId: s.spanId,\n      }\n    },\n  },\n  // Timeout: run aborted by external signal\n  {\n    id: 'timeout',\n    match: ({ run, events }) => {\n      if (run.status !== 'aborted') return null\n      const hasTimeout = events.some(\n        (e) =>\n          e.kind === 'error' &&\n          String(e.payload.reason ?? '')\n            .toLowerCase()\n            .includes('timeout'),\n      )\n      const note = (run.outcome?.notes ?? '').toLowerCase()\n      if (hasTimeout || note.includes('timeout') || note.includes('deadline')) {\n        return { failureClass: 'timeout', reason: 'timeout signal observed' }\n      }\n      return null\n    },\n  },\n  // Tool recovery failure: many consecutive tool errors on the same tool\n  {\n    id: 'tool-recovery-failure',\n    match: ({ spans }) => {\n      const tools = spans.filter((s) => s.kind === 'tool')\n      const byTool = new Map<string, Span[]>()\n      for (const t of tools) {\n        const name = (t as Extract<Span, { kind: 'tool' }>).toolName\n        const arr = byTool.get(name) ?? []\n        arr.push(t)\n        byTool.set(name, arr)\n      }\n      for (const [name, arr] of byTool) {\n        const errs = arr.filter((s) => s.status === 'error')\n        if (errs.length >= 3 && errs.length === arr.length) {\n          return {\n            failureClass: 'tool_recovery_failure',\n            reason: `${errs.length} consecutive errors on tool \"${name}\"`,\n            triggerSpanId: errs[errs.length - 1]!.spanId,\n          }\n        }\n      }\n      return null\n    },\n  },\n  // Tool selection error: the run failed and agent called zero tools despite having them\n  {\n    id: 'tool-selection-error',\n    match: ({ run, spans }) => {\n      if (run.outcome?.pass !== false) return null\n      const hasToolsAvailable = spans.some(\n        (s) =>\n          s.kind === 'agent' &&\n          (s.attributes?.toolsAvailable as number | undefined) !== undefined &&\n          (s.attributes?.toolsAvailable as number) > 0,\n      )\n      const tools = spans.filter((s) => s.kind === 'tool')\n      if (hasToolsAvailable && tools.length === 0) {\n        return {\n          failureClass: 'tool_selection_error',\n          reason: 'tools were available but none were called',\n        }\n      }\n      return null\n    },\n  },\n  // Format drift: scored by a judge with dimension='format' below threshold\n  {\n    id: 'format-drift',\n    match: ({ spans }) => {\n      const judge = spans.find(\n        (s) =>\n          s.kind === 'judge' &&\n          (s as Extract<Span, { kind: 'judge' }>).dimension === 'format' &&\n          (s as Extract<Span, { kind: 'judge' }>).score < 0.5,\n      )\n      return judge\n        ? {\n            failureClass: 'format_drift',\n            reason: 'format judge scored below 0.5',\n            triggerSpanId: judge.spanId,\n          }\n        : null\n    },\n  },\n]\n\nfunction hasResolutionStatus(payload: Record<string, unknown>, status: string): boolean {\n  if (status === 'missing_connection' && stringArray(payload.missingConnections).length > 0)\n    return true\n  return resolutionItems(payload).some((item) => item.status === status)\n}\n\nfunction hasMissingScopes(payload: Record<string, unknown>): boolean {\n  if (stringArray(payload.missingScopes).length > 0) return true\n  return resolutionItems(payload).some(\n    (item) => Array.isArray(item.missingScopes) && item.missingScopes.length > 0,\n  )\n}\n\nfunction resolutionItems(payload: Record<string, unknown>): Array<Record<string, unknown>> {\n  return [\n    ...records(payload.missing),\n    ...records(payload.optionalMissing),\n    ...records(payload.ready),\n  ]\n}\n\nfunction records(value: unknown): Array<Record<string, unknown>> {\n  if (!Array.isArray(value)) return []\n  return value.filter(\n    (item): item is Record<string, unknown> =>\n      Boolean(item) && typeof item === 'object' && !Array.isArray(item),\n  )\n}\n\nfunction stringArray(value: unknown): string[] {\n  return Array.isArray(value)\n    ? value.filter((item): item is string => typeof item === 'string')\n    : []\n}\n\n/** Classify the failure mode of a run using an ordered rule list. */\nexport function classifyFailure(\n  ctx: FailureContext,\n  rules: FailureRule[] = DEFAULT_RULES,\n): FailureClassification {\n  if (ctx.run.outcome?.pass !== false && ctx.run.status === 'completed') {\n    return { failureClass: 'success', reason: 'run completed with pass=true (or no explicit fail)' }\n  }\n  for (const rule of rules) {\n    const hit = rule.match(ctx)\n    if (hit) return hit\n  }\n  return { failureClass: 'unknown', reason: 'no rule matched; run failed for unclassified reason' }\n}\n","/**\n * Tool-use metrics — derived purely from trace data.\n *\n * No scoring assumptions: consumers supply optional ground-truth tool\n * selections per turn + optional \"information used downstream\" signals.\n * Without those, we still compute descriptive metrics (error rate,\n * retry rate, duplicate-call rate) that are useful on their own.\n */\n\nimport { argHash, groupBy, hasCapturedToolArgs, toolSpans } from './trace/query'\nimport type { Span } from './trace/schema'\nimport type { TraceStore } from './trace/store'\n\nexport interface ToolUseMetrics {\n  runId: string\n  totalCalls: number\n  /** Calls whose arguments were captured and can be compared for duplication. */\n  callsWithCapturedArgs: number\n  byTool: Record<string, ToolStats>\n  errorRate: number\n  /** Ratio of captured-argument calls already seen with the same tool name and arguments. */\n  duplicateRate: number\n  /** Ratio of error calls followed by ≥1 retry on same tool. */\n  retryRate: number\n  /** Optional: of the calls agent made, fraction the evaluator marked as \"correct selection\". */\n  selectionAccuracy?: number\n}\n\nexport interface ToolStats {\n  calls: number\n  callsWithCapturedArgs: number\n  errors: number\n  avgLatencyMs: number\n  duplicates: number\n}\n\nexport interface ToolUseOptions {\n  /** Map of spanId → whether the evaluator judged the tool selection correct. Optional. */\n  selectionLabels?: Record<string, boolean>\n}\n\nexport async function computeToolUseMetrics(\n  store: TraceStore,\n  runId: string,\n  options: ToolUseOptions = {},\n): Promise<ToolUseMetrics> {\n  const tools = await toolSpans(store, runId)\n  if (tools.length === 0) {\n    return {\n      runId,\n      totalCalls: 0,\n      callsWithCapturedArgs: 0,\n      byTool: {},\n      errorRate: 0,\n      duplicateRate: 0,\n      retryRate: 0,\n    }\n  }\n\n  const byTool: Record<string, ToolStats> = {}\n  let totalErrors = 0\n  let totalDuplicates = 0\n  let callsWithCapturedArgs = 0\n  const sortedTools = [...tools].sort((a, b) => a.startedAt - b.startedAt)\n  const seenSignatures = new Set<string>()\n\n  // duplicate detection + per-tool aggregation\n  for (const t of sortedTools) {\n    byTool[t.toolName] ??= {\n      calls: 0,\n      callsWithCapturedArgs: 0,\n      errors: 0,\n      avgLatencyMs: 0,\n      duplicates: 0,\n    }\n    const stat = byTool[t.toolName]!\n    stat.calls += 1\n    if (t.status === 'error') {\n      stat.errors += 1\n      totalErrors += 1\n    }\n    if (typeof t.latencyMs === 'number') stat.avgLatencyMs += t.latencyMs\n    if (hasCapturedToolArgs(t)) {\n      callsWithCapturedArgs += 1\n      stat.callsWithCapturedArgs += 1\n      const sig = `${t.toolName}|${argHash(t.args)}`\n      if (seenSignatures.has(sig)) {\n        stat.duplicates += 1\n        totalDuplicates += 1\n      }\n      seenSignatures.add(sig)\n    }\n  }\n\n  for (const stat of Object.values(byTool)) {\n    stat.avgLatencyMs = stat.calls > 0 ? stat.avgLatencyMs / stat.calls : 0\n  }\n\n  // retry detection: per-tool chronological adjacency where error → next same-tool call\n  let retryOpportunities = 0\n  let retriesFollowed = 0\n  for (const [, arr] of groupBy(sortedTools, (t) => t.toolName)) {\n    for (let i = 0; i < arr.length; i++) {\n      if (arr[i]!.status !== 'error') continue\n      retryOpportunities += 1\n      if (arr[i + 1]) retriesFollowed += 1\n    }\n  }\n  const retryRate = retryOpportunities > 0 ? retriesFollowed / retryOpportunities : 0\n\n  let selectionAccuracy: number | undefined\n  if (options.selectionLabels) {\n    const labeled = sortedTools.filter((t) => t.spanId in options.selectionLabels!)\n    if (labeled.length > 0) {\n      selectionAccuracy =\n        labeled.filter((t) => options.selectionLabels![t.spanId]).length / labeled.length\n    }\n  }\n\n  return {\n    runId,\n    totalCalls: sortedTools.length,\n    callsWithCapturedArgs,\n    byTool,\n    errorRate: totalErrors / sortedTools.length,\n    duplicateRate: callsWithCapturedArgs > 0 ? totalDuplicates / callsWithCapturedArgs : 0,\n    retryRate,\n    selectionAccuracy,\n  }\n}\n\nexport type { Span }\n","/**\n * Baseline regression detection.\n *\n * Lifted from ADC baseline.ts. Every promotion-blocking signal boils down\n * to: \"is this run measurably worse than baseline?\" — with enough\n * statistical rigor to distinguish noise from drift.\n *\n * Uses:\n *   - Welch's t-test (unequal variance) for per-metric mean comparison\n *   - Cohen's d for effect size magnitude\n *   - IQR for stability flag (unstable samples can't be trusted for comparisons)\n *\n * Returns a structured verdict: improved | regressed | stable | unstable.\n */\n\nimport { cohensD } from './statistics'\n\nexport interface MetricSamples {\n  /** Stable metric key (e.g. \"overallScore\", \"firstTokenMs\"). */\n  metric: string\n  /** Whether higher values are better. */\n  higherIsBetter: boolean\n  baseline: number[]\n  candidate: number[]\n}\n\nexport interface MetricVerdict {\n  metric: string\n  baselineMean: number\n  candidateMean: number\n  delta: number\n  cohensD: number\n  welchT: number\n  welchDf: number\n  welchP: number\n  stable: boolean\n  /** IQR of the combined samples — used as a rough stability indicator. */\n  iqr: number\n  verdict: 'improved' | 'regressed' | 'stable' | 'unstable'\n}\n\nexport interface BaselineReport {\n  metrics: MetricVerdict[]\n  /** True if any critical metric regressed. */\n  hasRegression: boolean\n  /** True if any metric is unstable (too noisy to judge). */\n  hasUnstable: boolean\n}\n\nexport interface BaselineOptions {\n  /** Effect size threshold for meaningful delta (default 0.5 — medium effect). */\n  effectThreshold?: number\n  /** p-value threshold for statistical significance (default 0.05). */\n  alpha?: number\n  /** IQR/mean ratio above which samples are flagged unstable (default 0.30). */\n  unstableCvThreshold?: number\n}\n\n/**\n * Compare candidate samples against baseline per metric. Verdict logic:\n *   - unstable: IQR/|mean| > threshold on either set — not enough signal\n *   - improved: meaningful effect in the \"better\" direction AND p < alpha\n *   - regressed: meaningful effect in the \"worse\" direction AND p < alpha\n *   - stable: otherwise (no significant change)\n */\nexport function compareToBaseline(\n  samples: MetricSamples[],\n  options: BaselineOptions = {},\n): BaselineReport {\n  const effectThreshold = options.effectThreshold ?? 0.5\n  const alpha = options.alpha ?? 0.05\n  const cvThreshold = options.unstableCvThreshold ?? 0.3\n\n  const metrics: MetricVerdict[] = samples.map((s) => {\n    if (s.baseline.length < 2 || s.candidate.length < 2) {\n      throw new Error(`compareToBaseline: need ≥2 samples per side for \"${s.metric}\"`)\n    }\n    const bMean = mean(s.baseline)\n    const cMean = mean(s.candidate)\n    const delta = cMean - bMean\n    const d = cohensD(s.baseline, s.candidate) // positive = candidate higher\n    const { t, df, p } = welchsTTest(s.baseline, s.candidate)\n    // Stability is per-side: a comparison is trustworthy only when BOTH\n    // samples are internally consistent. Combining the sides would flag\n    // large-but-real deltas as \"unstable\" which is exactly what we want\n    // to detect.\n    const baselineIqr = iqr(s.baseline)\n    const candidateIqr = iqr(s.candidate)\n    const baselineStable = baselineIqr / Math.max(Math.abs(bMean), 1e-9) <= cvThreshold\n    const candidateStable = candidateIqr / Math.max(Math.abs(cMean), 1e-9) <= cvThreshold\n    const stable = baselineStable && candidateStable\n    const reportedIqr = Math.max(baselineIqr, candidateIqr)\n\n    let verdict: MetricVerdict['verdict']\n    if (!stable) {\n      verdict = 'unstable'\n    } else if (p < alpha && Math.abs(d) >= effectThreshold) {\n      const candidateIsBetter = s.higherIsBetter ? delta > 0 : delta < 0\n      verdict = candidateIsBetter ? 'improved' : 'regressed'\n    } else {\n      verdict = 'stable'\n    }\n\n    return {\n      metric: s.metric,\n      baselineMean: bMean,\n      candidateMean: cMean,\n      delta,\n      cohensD: d,\n      welchT: t,\n      welchDf: df,\n      welchP: p,\n      stable,\n      iqr: reportedIqr,\n      verdict,\n    }\n  })\n\n  return {\n    metrics,\n    hasRegression: metrics.some((m) => m.verdict === 'regressed'),\n    hasUnstable: metrics.some((m) => m.verdict === 'unstable'),\n  }\n}\n\nfunction mean(xs: number[]): number {\n  return xs.reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0) / xs.length\n}\n\n/** Inter-quartile range; 0 when the sample has no spread. */\nexport function iqr(xs: number[]): number {\n  if (xs.length === 0) return 0\n  const sorted = [...xs].sort((a, b) => a - b)\n  const q = (p: number) => {\n    const idx = p * (sorted.length - 1)\n    const lo = Math.floor(idx)\n    const hi = Math.ceil(idx)\n    return sorted[lo]! + (sorted[hi]! - sorted[lo]!) * (idx - lo)\n  }\n  return q(0.75) - q(0.25)\n}\n\n/**\n * Welch's t-test — unequal-variance two-sample t. Uses the same Student-t\n * CDF as `pairedTTest` (via incomplete beta); falls back to normal tail\n * when df is large.\n */\nexport function welchsTTest(a: number[], b: number[]): { t: number; df: number; p: number } {\n  if (a.length < 2 || b.length < 2) return { t: 0, df: 0, p: 1 }\n  const mA = mean(a)\n  const mB = mean(b)\n  const vA = variance(a, mA)\n  const vB = variance(b, mB)\n  const seSquared = vA / a.length + vB / b.length\n  if (seSquared === 0) return { t: mA === mB ? 0 : Infinity, df: 0, p: mA === mB ? 1 : 0 }\n  const t = (mB - mA) / Math.sqrt(seSquared)\n  const df =\n    (seSquared * seSquared) /\n    ((vA / a.length) ** 2 / (a.length - 1) + (vB / b.length) ** 2 / (b.length - 1))\n  const p = 2 * (1 - studentTCdf(Math.abs(t), df))\n  return { t, df, p }\n}\n\nfunction variance(xs: number[], m: number): number {\n  return xs.reduce((acc, x) => acc + (x - m) ** 2, 0) / (xs.length - 1)\n}\n\n// Re-used from statistics.ts via small local copy to avoid exporting internals.\nfunction studentTCdf(t: number, df: number): number {\n  if (df <= 0) return 0.5\n  if (df > 100) return normalCdf(t)\n  const x = df / (df + t * t)\n  const ib = incompleteBeta(x, df / 2, 0.5)\n  return t >= 0 ? 1 - 0.5 * ib : 0.5 * ib\n}\n\nfunction incompleteBeta(x: number, a: number, b: number): number {\n  if (x <= 0) return 0\n  if (x >= 1) return 1\n  const lnBeta = lnGamma(a) + lnGamma(b) - lnGamma(a + b)\n  const front = Math.exp(Math.log(x) * a + Math.log(1 - x) * b - lnBeta) / a\n  let c = 1\n  let d = 1 - ((a + b) * x) / (a + 1)\n  if (Math.abs(d) < 1e-30) d = 1e-30\n  d = 1 / d\n  let f = d\n  for (let m = 1; m <= 200; m++) {\n    const m2 = 2 * m\n    let num = (m * (b - m) * x) / ((a + m2 - 1) * (a + m2))\n    d = 1 + num * d\n    if (Math.abs(d) < 1e-30) d = 1e-30\n    c = 1 + num / c\n    if (Math.abs(c) < 1e-30) c = 1e-30\n    d = 1 / d\n    f *= d * c\n    num = -((a + m) * (a + b + m) * x) / ((a + m2) * (a + m2 + 1))\n    d = 1 + num * d\n    if 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