@tangle-network/agent-eval 0.128.1 → 0.129.0

package/dist/{chunk-PBE2LOSS.js → chunk-SFLLL76A.js}

@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
 import {
   costForTokenPricing
-} from "./chunk-WS3NZZQQ.js";
+} from "./chunk-VCZ5FQYW.js";
 import {
   defaultProviderRedactor,
   providerFromBaseUrl
@@ -21,7 +21,7 @@ function maximumChargeForLlmRequest(request, options = {}) {
   )) {
     return void 0;
   }
-  const attempts = resolveMaximumAttempts(options.maxRetries);
+  const attempts = resolveMaximumAttempts(options.maximumAttempts);
   const forceJsonObject = options.jsonSchemaTransport === "json-object";
   const requestBytes = new TextEncoder().encode(
     JSON.stringify(buildBody(request, forceJsonObject, options.thinking))
@@ -74,9 +74,9 @@ var LlmResponseError = class extends AgentEvalError {
 };
 var DEFAULT_BASE_URL = "https://router.tangle.tools/v1";
 var DEFAULT_TIMEOUT_MS = Number(process.env.TANGLE_LLM_TIMEOUT_MS) || 3e5;
-var DEFAULT_MAX_RETRIES = Number(process.env.TANGLE_LLM_MAX_RETRIES) || 3;
+var DEFAULT_MAXIMUM_ATTEMPTS = process.env.TANGLE_LLM_MAXIMUM_ATTEMPTS === void 0 ? 3 : Number(process.env.TANGLE_LLM_MAXIMUM_ATTEMPTS);
 function resolveMaximumAttempts(configured) {
-  const attempts = configured ?? DEFAULT_MAX_RETRIES;
+  const attempts = configured ?? DEFAULT_MAXIMUM_ATTEMPTS;
   if (!Number.isInteger(attempts) || attempts <= 0) {
     throw new RangeError("LLM maximum attempts must be a positive integer");
   }
@@ -262,7 +262,7 @@ async function callLlm(req, opts = {}) {
   const url = `${baseUrl}/chat/completions`;
   const endpoint = "/chat/completions";
   const timeoutMs = req.timeoutMs ?? opts.defaultTimeoutMs ?? DEFAULT_TIMEOUT_MS;
-  const maximumAttempts = resolveMaximumAttempts(opts.maxRetries);
+  const maximumAttempts = resolveMaximumAttempts(opts.maximumAttempts);
   const fetchFn = opts.fetch ?? globalThis.fetch;
   const headers = buildHeaders(opts);
   const provider = opts.provider ?? providerFromBaseUrl(baseUrl);
@@ -639,7 +639,7 @@ var LlmClient = class {
   opts;
   constructor(opts = {}) {
     this.opts = opts;
-    this.maximumAttempts = resolveMaximumAttempts(opts.maxRetries);
+    this.maximumAttempts = resolveMaximumAttempts(opts.maximumAttempts);
   }
   call(req, per) {
     const options = { ...this.opts, ...per };
@@ -666,4 +666,4 @@ export {
   probeLlm,
   LlmClient
 };
-//# sourceMappingURL=chunk-PBE2LOSS.js.map
+//# sourceMappingURL=chunk-SFLLL76A.js.map

package/dist/chunk-SFLLL76A.js.map

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+{"version":3,"sources":["../src/llm-client.ts"],"sourcesContent":["/**\n * LLM client with graceful degrade.\n *\n * OpenAI-compatible `/v1/chat/completions` client with:\n *   - Exponential-backoff retry on 429 + 5xx gateway errors (502/503/504).\n *   - Retry on transient network errors (fetch failed, AbortError, ECONNRESET).\n *   - One retry at temperature 1 when a model explicitly requires it.\n *   - Graceful json_schema → json_object degrade on 400 with schema-reject body.\n *   - Fenced-JSON stripping (```json ... ```) for models that wrap structured output.\n *   - Configurable base URL + api key / bearer, works with LiteLLM proxies, OpenAI\n *     directly, cli-bridge subscriptions, and any router that speaks the spec.\n *\n * Usage:\n *   const { value, result } = await callLlmJson<MyType>(\n *     { model: 'gpt-4o', messages: [...], jsonSchema: { name: 'x', schema: {...} } },\n *     { baseUrl: 'https://router.tangle.tools/v1', apiKey: process.env.KEY },\n *   )\n *\n * `createChatClient` wraps this implementation for provider-neutral package\n * entry points. Direct callers can use `callLlm` or `callLlmJson`.\n */\n\nimport {\n  type CostReceiptInput,\n  type CustomTokenPricing,\n  costForTokenPricing,\n  type MaximumCharge,\n} from './cost-ledger'\nimport { AgentEvalError, CaptureIntegrityError } from './errors'\nimport {\n  defaultProviderRedactor,\n  type ProviderRedactor,\n  providerFromBaseUrl,\n  type RawProviderEvent,\n  type RawProviderSink,\n} from './trace/raw-provider-sink'\n\n// ─── Types ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────\n\nexport interface LlmMessage {\n  role: 'system' | 'user' | 'assistant'\n  /**\n   * Either a plain text content string OR a multimodal content array\n   * (text + image_url parts) for vision-capable models.\n   */\n  content:\n    | string\n    | Array<\n        | { type: 'text'; text: string }\n        | { type: 'image_url'; image_url: { url: string; detail?: 'auto' | 'low' | 'high' } }\n      >\n}\n\nexport type LlmThinkingMode = 'enabled' | 'disabled'\n\nexport interface LlmCallRequest {\n  model: string\n  messages: LlmMessage[]\n  /** Optional JSON-mode response format (response_format: json_object). */\n  jsonMode?: boolean\n  /** Optional structured output via JSON Schema. Falls back to json_object on 400. */\n  jsonSchema?: { name: string; schema: Record<string, unknown> }\n  temperature?: number\n  maxTokens?: number\n  /** OpenAI-compatible reasoning mode. Omitted when the provider default should apply. */\n  thinking?: LlmThinkingMode\n  /** Per-call timeout, default 300s. */\n  timeoutMs?: number\n}\n\n/** Conservative priced bound for the exact text request sent to a provider.\n * Returns undefined when output or multimodal input is not bounded, causing a\n * capped CostLedger to reject the call before execution. Pass\n * `customTokenPricing` when package pricing does not cover the model or endpoint. */\nexport function maximumChargeForLlmRequest(\n  request: Pick<LlmCallRequest, 'model' | 'messages' | 'jsonSchema' | 'maxTokens' | 'thinking'>,\n  options: LlmClientOptions = {},\n): MaximumCharge | undefined {\n  if (request.maxTokens === undefined) return undefined\n  if (!Number.isInteger(request.maxTokens) || request.maxTokens <= 0) {\n    throw new RangeError(`maximumChargeForLlmRequest: maxTokens must be a positive integer`)\n  }\n  if (\n    request.messages.some(\n      (message) =>\n        Array.isArray(message.content) && message.content.some((part) => part.type === 'image_url'),\n    )\n  ) {\n    return undefined\n  }\n\n  const attempts = resolveMaximumAttempts(options.maximumAttempts)\n  const forceJsonObject = options.jsonSchemaTransport === 'json-object'\n  // A byte-level tokenizer cannot emit more input tokens than request bytes.\n  // Pricing the complete body also covers role/schema framing omitted from content-only estimates.\n  const requestBytes = new TextEncoder().encode(\n    JSON.stringify(buildBody(request, forceJsonObject, options.thinking)),\n  ).byteLength\n  // A rejected response schema can trigger one JSON-mode batch with the same output limit.\n  const batches = request.jsonSchema && !forceJsonObject ? 2 : 1\n  const usage = {\n    inputTokens: requestBytes * attempts * batches,\n    outputTokens: request.maxTokens * attempts * batches,\n  }\n  return options.customTokenPricing\n    ? { customTokenPricing: options.customTokenPricing, ...usage }\n    : { model: request.model, ...usage }\n}\n\nexport interface LlmUsage {\n  promptTokens: number\n  completionTokens: number\n  totalTokens: number\n  /** False when the provider omitted or malformed prompt/completion usage. */\n  captured?: boolean\n  /** Reasoning-token subset of completionTokens, when reported. */\n  reasoningTokens?: number\n  /** Proxies populate this when prompt caching is on. */\n  cachedPromptTokens?: number\n}\n\nexport interface LlmCallResult {\n  /** The text content of the first choice. Empty string if none. */\n  content: string\n  usage: LlmUsage\n  /**\n   * Cost in USD. Uses the provider's reported cost when present, otherwise\n   * caller-supplied token pricing. `null` when neither is available.\n   */\n  costUsd: number | null\n  /** Model name actually used (echoed from response). */\n  model: string\n  /** Wall-clock duration of the HTTP call (last attempt, if retried). */\n  durationMs: number\n  /**\n   * `finish_reason` echoed from the first choice (`stop`, `length`,\n   * `content_filter`, `tool_calls`, ...). `null` when the provider omits it.\n   * Exposed so a free-form `callLlm` caller CAN detect a truncated answer\n   * (`length`) instead of treating a cut-off completion as complete. Note:\n   * `callLlm` does not itself reject on it — acting on this signal is the\n   * caller's responsibility (in-repo free-form drivers do not yet enforce it).\n   */\n  finishReason?: string | null\n  /**\n   * True when `content.trim()` is empty. An empty completion is a silent zero\n   * for free-form `callLlm` callers; this flag is the signal a caller can\n   * inspect to fail loud rather than proceed on an empty string. `callLlm`\n   * surfaces it but does not throw on it.\n   */\n  contentEmpty?: boolean\n  /** Raw response body. */\n  raw: Record<string, unknown>\n}\n\nexport type LlmCallMetadata = Pick<LlmCallResult, 'usage' | 'costUsd' | 'model' | 'durationMs'>\n\n/** Convert a provider result into the canonical paid-call receipt input. */\nexport function costReceiptFromLlm(\n  result: LlmCallResult,\n  customTokenPricing?: CustomTokenPricing,\n): CostReceiptInput {\n  const cachedTokens = result.usage.cachedPromptTokens ?? 0\n  const inputTokens = Math.max(0, result.usage.promptTokens - cachedTokens)\n  const configuredCostUsd =\n    result.costUsd === null && customTokenPricing && result.usage.captured !== false\n      ? costForTokenPricing(customTokenPricing, {\n          inputTokens,\n          ...(cachedTokens > 0 ? { cachedTokens } : {}),\n          outputTokens: result.usage.completionTokens,\n        })\n      : undefined\n  return {\n    model: result.model,\n    inputTokens,\n    outputTokens: result.usage.completionTokens,\n    reasoningTokens: result.usage.reasoningTokens,\n    cachedTokens: cachedTokens > 0 ? cachedTokens : undefined,\n    actualCostUsd: result.costUsd ?? configuredCostUsd,\n    usageUnknown: result.usage.captured === false,\n  }\n}\n\n/** Structured-response failures retain their completed provider receipt. */\nexport function costReceiptFromLlmError(\n  error: Error,\n  customTokenPricing?: CustomTokenPricing,\n): CostReceiptInput | undefined {\n  return error instanceof LlmResponseError\n    ? costReceiptFromLlm(error.result, customTokenPricing)\n    : undefined\n}\n\nexport class LlmCallError extends AgentEvalError {\n  constructor(\n    message: string,\n    public readonly status: number,\n    public readonly body: string,\n    public readonly model: string,\n  ) {\n    super('judge', message)\n  }\n}\n\n/** A provider response completed and incurred measurable usage, but its content\n *  could not satisfy the caller's response contract. The response envelope is\n *  retained so accounting can commit the receipt before the error propagates. */\nexport class LlmResponseError extends AgentEvalError {\n  constructor(\n    message: string,\n    public readonly result: LlmCallResult,\n    options?: { cause?: unknown },\n  ) {\n    super('judge', message, options)\n  }\n}\n\nexport interface LlmClientOptions {\n  /** Base URL (without trailing slash). Must end at the `/v1` prefix. */\n  baseUrl?: string\n  /** Bearer token — either `apiKey` or `bearer` populates `Authorization: Bearer ...`. */\n  apiKey?: string\n  bearer?: string\n  /** Override for the `Authorization` header (e.g. `X-Auth: ...`). Takes precedence over apiKey/bearer. */\n  authHeader?: { name: string; value: string }\n  /** Stable provider idempotency key, reused across retries of this logical call. */\n  idempotencyKey?: string\n  /** Default timeout in ms. Per-call can override. */\n  defaultTimeoutMs?: number\n  /**\n   * Caller-supplied abort signal — e.g. a campaign-wide cancel. Linked to\n   * each attempt's per-attempt timeout controller, so aborting it cancels\n   * the in-flight fetch. A caller abort is FATAL: it is not retried even\n   * though an AbortError otherwise matches the transient patterns.\n   */\n  signal?: AbortSignal\n  /**\n   * Cross-attempt wall-clock budget in ms, measured from the first attempt.\n   * Before launching each attempt the loop checks the remaining budget and\n   * stops retrying once it is exhausted, rather than waiting the full\n   * per-attempt timeout on every retry. Bounds total time independent of\n   * total attempts × `timeoutMs`.\n   */\n  deadlineMs?: number\n  /** Total provider attempts. Default 3. */\n  maximumAttempts?: number\n  /** Token rates used when the provider omits cost or package pricing does not cover the model. */\n  customTokenPricing?: CustomTokenPricing\n  /**\n   * Transport for requests that declare `jsonSchema`. `native` sends\n   * `response_format: json_schema`; `json-object` sends the broadly supported\n   * JSON mode and relies on the caller to include the schema in model-visible\n   * instructions. Default: `native`.\n   */\n  jsonSchemaTransport?: 'native' | 'json-object'\n  /**\n   * JSON payload parsing policy. `extract` accepts fenced or prose-prefixed JSON.\n   * `exact` requires the complete response content to be one JSON value.\n   * Default: `extract`.\n   */\n  jsonPayloadMode?: 'extract' | 'exact'\n  /** Default provider reasoning mode. A per-call request value takes precedence. */\n  thinking?: LlmThinkingMode\n  /** Fetch implementation — defaults to global `fetch`. Override for custom transport (e.g. tests). */\n  fetch?: typeof fetch\n  /**\n   * Optional raw HTTP capture sink. When provided, every request, response,\n   * and error (across all retry attempts) is recorded to the sink, with auth\n   * headers and credential-shaped body fields redacted by default. This is\n   * the layer-1 forensics primitive: structured `LlmSpan`s record intent,\n   * raw events record what actually crossed the wire.\n   */\n  rawSink?: RawProviderSink\n  /**\n   * Logical provider id attached to raw events. When omitted, derived from\n   * `baseUrl` via `providerFromBaseUrl`.\n   */\n  provider?: string\n  /** Trace context attached to raw events; populated by emitter-aware callers. */\n  traceContext?: { runId?: string; spanId?: string }\n  /** Override the redaction strategy for this call. Defaults to `defaultProviderRedactor`. */\n  redactor?: ProviderRedactor\n}\n\n// ─── Internals ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────\n\nconst DEFAULT_BASE_URL = 'https://router.tangle.tools/v1'\n// Flagship / reasoning models routinely take several minutes on large prompts (a\n// reflection over many failures, a long tool transcript). A tight cap aborts a\n// legitimately-slow but healthy call — and because every retry attempt re-uses\n// the same window, such a model aborts on ALL attempts and the loop throws. The\n// default is generous enough to let those complete, bounded enough that a truly\n// hung call still fails over after retries, and tunable per deployment via\n// TANGLE_LLM_TIMEOUT_MS. Per-call `req.timeoutMs` / `opts.defaultTimeoutMs`\n// still win for callers that know their model's latency.\nconst DEFAULT_TIMEOUT_MS = Number(process.env.TANGLE_LLM_TIMEOUT_MS) || 300_000\nconst DEFAULT_MAXIMUM_ATTEMPTS =\n  process.env.TANGLE_LLM_MAXIMUM_ATTEMPTS === undefined\n    ? 3\n    : Number(process.env.TANGLE_LLM_MAXIMUM_ATTEMPTS)\n\nfunction resolveMaximumAttempts(configured: number | undefined): number {\n  const attempts = configured ?? DEFAULT_MAXIMUM_ATTEMPTS\n  if (!Number.isInteger(attempts) || attempts <= 0) {\n    throw new RangeError('LLM maximum attempts must be a positive integer')\n  }\n  return attempts\n}\n\nfunction providerTokenCount(value: unknown): number | undefined {\n  return typeof value === 'number' && Number.isSafeInteger(value) && value >= 0 ? value : undefined\n}\n\nconst RETRYABLE_STATUS = new Set([429, 502, 503, 504])\n\n/**\n * Transient transport/network error signatures, matched against an error's\n * name, message, and `code`. Covers fetch/undici network failures, aborts\n * and timeouts, and — critically — HTTP/2 transport faults a keep-alive\n * connection raises mid-response: `terminated`, `NGHTTP2_INTERNAL_ERROR`,\n * `UND_ERR_*`, `other side closed`. Those last ones carry no clean HTTP\n * status; unrecognised, they escape the retry loop and surface as an\n * uncaught rejection.\n */\nconst TRANSIENT_ERROR_PATTERNS: readonly RegExp[] = [\n  /AbortError/i,\n  /TimeoutError/i,\n  /this operation was aborted/i,\n  /fetch failed/i,\n  /ECONNRESET/i,\n  /ETIMEDOUT/i,\n  /EAI_AGAIN/i,\n  /socket hang up/i,\n  /stream.*ended.*unexpectedly/i,\n  /terminated/i,\n  /other side closed/i,\n  /NGHTTP2/i,\n  /UND_ERR/i,\n]\n\n/**\n * True when an error is a transient transport/network fault worth retrying,\n * as opposed to a deterministic failure (4xx schema reject, JSON parse) that\n * a retry cannot fix. Inspects `LlmCallError.status`, then the error's\n * name/message/code, then recurses into `error.cause` — undici nests the\n * real socket fault one or more levels under `.cause`.\n *\n * This is the retry classifier for the package: `callLlm` and\n * `withJudgeRetry` both route through it, so connection failures are treated\n * consistently across transports.\n */\nexport function isTransientLlmError(err: unknown): boolean {\n  return classifyTransient(err, 0)\n}\n\nfunction classifyTransient(err: unknown, depth: number): boolean {\n  if (err instanceof LlmCallError) return RETRYABLE_STATUS.has(err.status)\n  if (!(err instanceof Error)) return false\n  // Foreign transport errors can carry a numeric HTTP status without being an\n  // LlmCallError. A retryable status is decisive.\n  const status = (err as { status?: unknown }).status\n  if (typeof status === 'number' && RETRYABLE_STATUS.has(status)) return true\n  const code = (err as { code?: unknown }).code\n  const haystack = `${err.name}\\n${err.message}\\n${typeof code === 'string' ? code : ''}`\n  if (TRANSIENT_ERROR_PATTERNS.some((p) => p.test(haystack))) return true\n  const cause = (err as { cause?: unknown }).cause\n  if (depth < 4 && cause instanceof Error && cause !== err) {\n    return classifyTransient(cause, depth + 1)\n  }\n  return false\n}\n\nfunction parseRetryAfter(headers: Headers): number | null {\n  const h = headers.get('retry-after')\n  if (!h) return null\n  const asNumber = Number(h)\n  if (Number.isFinite(asNumber) && asNumber > 0) return asNumber * 1000\n  const asDate = Date.parse(h)\n  if (Number.isFinite(asDate)) return Math.max(0, asDate - Date.now())\n  return null\n}\n\n/** Exponential backoff: 500ms, 1s, 2s, 4s, ... capped at 16s. Attempt is 0-indexed. */\nexport function backoffMs(attempt: number): number {\n  return Math.min(500 * 2 ** attempt, 16_000)\n}\n\nfunction buildHeaders(opts: LlmClientOptions): Record<string, string> {\n  const headers: Record<string, string> = {\n    'Content-Type': 'application/json',\n    Accept: 'application/json',\n  }\n  if (opts.authHeader) {\n    headers[opts.authHeader.name] = opts.authHeader.value\n  } else if (opts.bearer || opts.apiKey) {\n    headers.Authorization = `Bearer ${opts.bearer ?? opts.apiKey}`\n  }\n  if (opts.idempotencyKey) headers['Idempotency-Key'] = opts.idempotencyKey\n  return headers\n}\n\nfunction isSchemaRejection(status: number, body: string): boolean {\n  if (status !== 400) return false\n  const lower = body.toLowerCase()\n  return (\n    lower.includes('response_format') ||\n    lower.includes('json_schema') ||\n    lower.includes('is unavailable') ||\n    lower.includes('not supported')\n  )\n}\n\nfunction isTemperatureOneRejection(status: number, body: string): boolean {\n  if (status !== 400 || !/temperature/i.test(body)) return false\n  return (\n    /temperature[^.\\n]{0,120}\\b(?:only|must|should|required|requires?)\\b[^.\\n]{0,40}\\b1(?:\\.0+)?\\b/i.test(\n      body,\n    ) || /\\bonly\\s+1(?:\\.0+)?\\s+is\\s+allowed\\b[^.\\n]{0,120}\\btemperature\\b/i.test(body)\n  )\n}\n\nfunction buildBody(\n  req: LlmCallRequest,\n  forceJsonObject: boolean,\n  defaultThinking?: LlmThinkingMode,\n): Record<string, unknown> {\n  const body: Record<string, unknown> = {\n    model: req.model,\n    messages: req.messages,\n    temperature: req.temperature ?? 0,\n  }\n  if (req.maxTokens != null) {\n    if (usesMaxCompletionTokens(req.model)) body.max_completion_tokens = req.maxTokens\n    else body.max_tokens = req.maxTokens\n  }\n  const thinking = req.thinking ?? defaultThinking\n  if (thinking !== undefined) {\n    body.thinking = { type: thinking }\n  }\n\n  if (req.jsonSchema && !forceJsonObject) {\n    body.response_format = {\n      type: 'json_schema',\n      json_schema: { name: req.jsonSchema.name, schema: req.jsonSchema.schema, strict: true },\n    }\n  } else if (req.jsonMode || req.jsonSchema) {\n    body.response_format = { type: 'json_object' }\n  }\n\n  return body\n}\n\nfunction usesMaxCompletionTokens(model: string): boolean {\n  return /^gpt-5(?:[.-]|$)/i.test(model)\n}\n\nasync function sleep(ms: number): Promise<void> {\n  return new Promise((resolve) => setTimeout(resolve, ms))\n}\n\n/**\n * Combine the per-attempt timeout signal with an optional caller signal into\n * one signal the fetch listens on. Prefers the native `AbortSignal.any`; falls\n * back to manual wiring on runtimes that predate it. The caller signal is also\n * propagated to the timeout controller so aborting it cancels the in-flight\n * fetch immediately.\n */\nfunction linkSignals(timeoutController: AbortController, caller?: AbortSignal): AbortSignal {\n  if (!caller) return timeoutController.signal\n  if (typeof (AbortSignal as { any?: unknown }).any === 'function') {\n    return AbortSignal.any([timeoutController.signal, caller])\n  }\n  if (caller.aborted) {\n    timeoutController.abort()\n  } else {\n    caller.addEventListener('abort', () => timeoutController.abort(), { once: true })\n  }\n  return timeoutController.signal\n}\n\n/** True once the cross-attempt wall-clock budget (if any) is exhausted. */\nfunction deadlineExceeded(start: number, deadlineMs: number | undefined): boolean {\n  return deadlineMs != null && Date.now() - start >= deadlineMs\n}\n\n// ─── Public API ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────\n\n/**\n * Strip a ```json / ``` code fence if the model emitted one.\n * Idempotent for naked JSON. Some models (claude-code via router, certain\n * deepseek models) wrap output even under json_object.\n */\nexport function stripFencedJson(raw: string): string {\n  const trimmed = raw.trim()\n  const m = trimmed.match(/^```(?:json)?\\s*\\n?([\\s\\S]*?)\\n?```\\s*$/)\n  return m ? m[1]!.trim() : trimmed\n}\n\nexport function extractJsonPayload(raw: string): string {\n  const stripped = stripFencedJson(raw)\n  try {\n    JSON.parse(stripped)\n    return stripped\n  } catch {\n    // A response that declares a JSON root must parse as that complete root.\n    // Scanning onward could turn a truncated object into one of its valid nested\n    // arrays or objects and silently change the response schema.\n    if (stripped.startsWith('{') || stripped.startsWith('[')) return stripped\n  }\n\n  // Only prose-leading responses may contain a recoverable JSON payload.\n  const starts = [...stripped.matchAll(/[[{]/g)]\n    .map((match) => match.index)\n    .filter((index) => index != null)\n  for (const start of starts) {\n    const candidate = extractBalancedJson(stripped, start)\n    if (!candidate) continue\n    try {\n      JSON.parse(candidate)\n      return candidate\n    } catch {\n      // Keep scanning; earlier braces may belong to prose.\n    }\n  }\n\n  return stripped\n}\n\nfunction extractBalancedJson(input: string, start: number): string | null {\n  const opener = input[start]\n  const closer = opener === '{' ? '}' : opener === '[' ? ']' : null\n  if (!closer) return null\n\n  const stack: string[] = [closer]\n  let isInString = false\n  let isEscaped = false\n\n  for (let i = start + 1; i < input.length; i++) {\n    const char = input[i]!\n    if (isEscaped) {\n      isEscaped = false\n      continue\n    }\n    if (char === '\\\\') {\n      isEscaped = isInString\n      continue\n    }\n    if (char === '\"') {\n      isInString = !isInString\n      continue\n    }\n    if (isInString) continue\n\n    if (char === '{') stack.push('}')\n    else if (char === '[') stack.push(']')\n    else if (char === stack[stack.length - 1]) {\n      stack.pop()\n      if (stack.length === 0) return input.slice(start, i + 1)\n    }\n  }\n\n  return null\n}\n\n/**\n * Low-level call. Returns raw content + usage + cost. Retries on transient\n * failures; does NOT degrade schema here — callers that want graceful\n * degrade use `callLlmJson`.\n */\nexport async function callLlm(\n  req: LlmCallRequest,\n  opts: LlmClientOptions = {},\n): Promise<LlmCallResult> {\n  const baseUrl = (opts.baseUrl ?? DEFAULT_BASE_URL).replace(/\\/+$/, '')\n  const url = `${baseUrl}/chat/completions`\n  const endpoint = '/chat/completions'\n  const timeoutMs = req.timeoutMs ?? opts.defaultTimeoutMs ?? DEFAULT_TIMEOUT_MS\n  const maximumAttempts = resolveMaximumAttempts(opts.maximumAttempts)\n  const fetchFn = opts.fetch ?? globalThis.fetch\n  const headers = buildHeaders(opts)\n  const provider = opts.provider ?? providerFromBaseUrl(baseUrl)\n  const sink = opts.rawSink\n  const redactor = opts.redactor ?? defaultProviderRedactor\n  const traceContext = opts.traceContext\n  const callerSignal = opts.signal\n  const deadlineMs = opts.deadlineMs\n  const deadlineStart = Date.now()\n  if (opts.customTokenPricing) {\n    costForTokenPricing(opts.customTokenPricing, { inputTokens: 0, outputTokens: 0 })\n  }\n\n  let lastErr: unknown\n  let effectiveRequest = req\n  for (let attempt = 0; attempt < maximumAttempts; attempt++) {\n    // A caller cancel is fatal — never retried. Checking before each attempt\n    // means an already-aborted signal short-circuits without firing fetch.\n    if (callerSignal?.aborted) {\n      throw new DOMException('callLlm aborted by caller signal', 'AbortError')\n    }\n    // Stop retrying once the cross-attempt budget is spent rather than burning\n    // a full per-attempt timeout on each remaining retry.\n    if (attempt > 0 && deadlineExceeded(deadlineStart, deadlineMs)) {\n      throw lastErr instanceof Error ? lastErr : new Error(String(lastErr))\n    }\n    const controller = new AbortController()\n    const attemptSignal = linkSignals(controller, callerSignal)\n    const timeoutHandle = setTimeout(() => controller.abort(), timeoutMs)\n    const started = Date.now()\n    const requestBody = buildBody(\n      effectiveRequest,\n      opts.jsonSchemaTransport === 'json-object',\n      opts.thinking,\n    )\n    let attemptErrorRecorded = false\n    if (sink) {\n      await recordRaw(sink, redactor, {\n        eventId: cryptoEventId(),\n        runId: traceContext?.runId,\n        spanId: traceContext?.spanId,\n        provider,\n        model: req.model,\n        endpoint,\n        baseUrl,\n        attemptIndex: attempt,\n        direction: 'request',\n        timestamp: started,\n        requestHeaders: headers,\n        requestBody,\n        redactedFields: [],\n      })\n    }\n\n    try {\n      const res = await fetchFn(url, {\n        method: 'POST',\n        headers,\n        body: JSON.stringify(requestBody),\n        signal: attemptSignal,\n      })\n      clearTimeout(timeoutHandle)\n      const responseHeaders = sink ? headersToObject(res.headers) : undefined\n\n      if (!res.ok) {\n        const body = await res.text()\n        if (sink) {\n          await recordRaw(sink, redactor, {\n            eventId: cryptoEventId(),\n            runId: traceContext?.runId,\n            spanId: traceContext?.spanId,\n            provider,\n            model: req.model,\n            endpoint,\n            baseUrl,\n            attemptIndex: attempt,\n            direction: 'error',\n            timestamp: Date.now(),\n            durationMs: Date.now() - started,\n            statusCode: res.status,\n            responseHeaders,\n            responseBody: body,\n            errorMessage: `HTTP ${res.status}`,\n            redactedFields: [],\n          })\n          attemptErrorRecorded = true\n        }\n        const err = new LlmCallError(\n          `LLM call ${res.status}: ${body.slice(0, 300)}`,\n          res.status,\n          body,\n          req.model,\n        )\n        if (\n          isTemperatureOneRejection(res.status, body) &&\n          effectiveRequest.temperature !== 1 &&\n          attempt < maximumAttempts - 1 &&\n          !deadlineExceeded(deadlineStart, deadlineMs)\n        ) {\n          lastErr = err\n          effectiveRequest = { ...effectiveRequest, temperature: 1 }\n          continue\n        }\n        if (\n          RETRYABLE_STATUS.has(res.status) &&\n          attempt < maximumAttempts - 1 &&\n          !deadlineExceeded(deadlineStart, deadlineMs)\n        ) {\n          lastErr = err\n          const retryAfter = parseRetryAfter(res.headers)\n          await sleep(retryAfter ?? backoffMs(attempt))\n          continue\n        }\n        throw err\n      }\n\n      const text = await res.text()\n      let json: Record<string, unknown>\n      try {\n        json = JSON.parse(text) as Record<string, unknown>\n      } catch (parseErr) {\n        if (sink) {\n          await recordRaw(sink, redactor, {\n            eventId: cryptoEventId(),\n            runId: traceContext?.runId,\n            spanId: traceContext?.spanId,\n            provider,\n            model: req.model,\n            endpoint,\n            baseUrl,\n            attemptIndex: attempt,\n            direction: 'error',\n            timestamp: Date.now(),\n            durationMs: Date.now() - started,\n            statusCode: res.status,\n            responseHeaders,\n            responseBody: text,\n            errorMessage: `non-JSON response: ${parseErr instanceof Error ? parseErr.message : String(parseErr)}`,\n            redactedFields: [],\n          })\n          attemptErrorRecorded = true\n        }\n        throw parseErr\n      }\n      if (sink) {\n        await recordRaw(sink, redactor, {\n          eventId: cryptoEventId(),\n          runId: traceContext?.runId,\n          spanId: traceContext?.spanId,\n          provider,\n          model: req.model,\n          endpoint,\n          baseUrl,\n          attemptIndex: attempt,\n          direction: 'response',\n          timestamp: Date.now(),\n          durationMs: Date.now() - started,\n          statusCode: res.status,\n          responseHeaders,\n          responseBody: json,\n          redactedFields: [],\n        })\n      }\n      const choice = (\n        json.choices as\n          | Array<{ message?: { content?: string }; finish_reason?: string | null }>\n          | undefined\n      )?.[0]\n      const usageRaw =\n        json.usage && typeof json.usage === 'object' && !Array.isArray(json.usage)\n          ? (json.usage as Record<string, unknown>)\n          : undefined\n      const promptTokens = providerTokenCount(usageRaw?.prompt_tokens)\n      const completionTokens = providerTokenCount(usageRaw?.completion_tokens)\n      const totalTokens = providerTokenCount(usageRaw?.total_tokens)\n      const completionDetails =\n        usageRaw?.completion_tokens_details &&\n        typeof usageRaw.completion_tokens_details === 'object' &&\n        !Array.isArray(usageRaw.completion_tokens_details)\n          ? (usageRaw.completion_tokens_details as Record<string, unknown>)\n          : undefined\n      const reasoningRaw = completionDetails?.reasoning_tokens\n      const reasoningTokens =\n        reasoningRaw === undefined ? undefined : providerTokenCount(reasoningRaw)\n      const cachedRaw =\n        usageRaw?.prompt_tokens_details &&\n        typeof usageRaw.prompt_tokens_details === 'object' &&\n        !Array.isArray(usageRaw.prompt_tokens_details)\n          ? (usageRaw.prompt_tokens_details as Record<string, unknown>).cached_tokens\n          : undefined\n      const cachedPromptTokens = cachedRaw === undefined ? undefined : providerTokenCount(cachedRaw)\n      const usageCaptured =\n        promptTokens !== undefined &&\n        completionTokens !== undefined &&\n        (reasoningRaw === undefined ||\n          (reasoningTokens !== undefined && reasoningTokens <= completionTokens)) &&\n        (cachedRaw === undefined ||\n          (cachedPromptTokens !== undefined && cachedPromptTokens <= promptTokens)) &&\n        (totalTokens === undefined || totalTokens === promptTokens + completionTokens)\n      const costFromProxy = (json._response_cost ?? json.cost_usd) as number | undefined\n      const content = choice?.message?.content ?? ''\n\n      const configuredCost =\n        typeof costFromProxy !== 'number' && usageCaptured && opts.customTokenPricing\n          ? costForTokenPricing(opts.customTokenPricing, {\n              inputTokens: promptTokens! - (cachedPromptTokens ?? 0),\n              ...(cachedPromptTokens ? { cachedTokens: cachedPromptTokens } : {}),\n              outputTokens: completionTokens!,\n            })\n          : undefined\n\n      return {\n        content,\n        finishReason: choice?.finish_reason ?? null,\n        contentEmpty: content.trim().length === 0,\n        usage: {\n          promptTokens: promptTokens ?? 0,\n          completionTokens: completionTokens ?? 0,\n          totalTokens: totalTokens ?? (promptTokens ?? 0) + (completionTokens ?? 0),\n          captured: usageCaptured,\n          reasoningTokens,\n          cachedPromptTokens,\n        },\n        costUsd: typeof costFromProxy === 'number' ? costFromProxy : (configuredCost ?? null),\n        model: (json.model as string) ?? req.model,\n        durationMs: Date.now() - started,\n        raw: json,\n      }\n    } catch (err) {\n      clearTimeout(timeoutHandle)\n      lastErr = err\n      // A caller cancel is fatal even though an AbortError matches the\n      // transient patterns — a cancelled call must surface immediately, not\n      // be retried against the same dead intent.\n      if (callerSignal?.aborted) {\n        if (sink && !attemptErrorRecorded) {\n          await recordRaw(sink, redactor, {\n            eventId: cryptoEventId(),\n            runId: traceContext?.runId,\n            spanId: traceContext?.spanId,\n            provider,\n            model: req.model,\n            endpoint,\n            baseUrl,\n            attemptIndex: attempt,\n            direction: 'error',\n            timestamp: Date.now(),\n            durationMs: Date.now() - started,\n            errorMessage: err instanceof Error ? err.message : String(err),\n            redactedFields: [],\n          })\n        }\n        throw err\n      }\n      if (sink && !attemptErrorRecorded) {\n        // Record only if neither the !res.ok branch nor the JSON.parse catch\n        // already produced an error event for this attempt. Covers network\n        // failures, timeouts, and aborts.\n        await recordRaw(sink, redactor, {\n          eventId: cryptoEventId(),\n          runId: traceContext?.runId,\n          spanId: traceContext?.spanId,\n          provider,\n          model: req.model,\n          endpoint,\n          baseUrl,\n          attemptIndex: attempt,\n          direction: 'error',\n          timestamp: Date.now(),\n          durationMs: Date.now() - started,\n          errorMessage: err instanceof Error ? err.message : String(err),\n          redactedFields: [],\n        })\n      }\n      if (\n        attempt < maximumAttempts - 1 &&\n        isTransientLlmError(err) &&\n        !deadlineExceeded(deadlineStart, deadlineMs)\n      ) {\n        await sleep(backoffMs(attempt))\n        continue\n      }\n      throw err\n    }\n  }\n  throw lastErr instanceof Error ? lastErr : new Error(String(lastErr))\n}\n\nasync function recordRaw(\n  sink: RawProviderSink,\n  redactor: ProviderRedactor,\n  event: RawProviderEvent,\n): Promise<void> {\n  // Errors from sinks must not crash the LLM call. Forensic capture is\n  // best-effort; the structured trace is the system of record.\n  try {\n    await sink.record(redactor(event))\n  } catch {\n    // Intentionally swallowed.\n  }\n}\n\nfunction headersToObject(h: Headers): Record<string, string> {\n  const out: Record<string, string> = {}\n  h.forEach((value, key) => {\n    out[key] = value\n  })\n  return out\n}\n\nfunction cryptoEventId(): string {\n  if (typeof globalThis.crypto?.randomUUID === 'function') return globalThis.crypto.randomUUID()\n  return `${Date.now().toString(36)}-${Math.random().toString(36).slice(2, 10)}`\n}\n\n/**\n * Structured-output call. Returns parsed JSON plus the raw result envelope.\n * Degrades `jsonSchema` → `jsonMode` on a 400 that names the schema param —\n * critical for deepseek-v3/v4, kimi-k2.6, and other models that don't accept\n * the `response_format.json_schema` shape but DO accept `json_object`.\n */\nexport async function callLlmJson<T = unknown>(\n  req: LlmCallRequest,\n  opts: LlmClientOptions = {},\n): Promise<{ value: T; result: LlmCallResult }> {\n  const result = await callLlmStructured(req, opts)\n  const value = parseJsonResult<T>(result, opts.jsonPayloadMode ?? 'extract')\n  return { value, result }\n}\n\n/** Shared schema-to-JSON-mode fallback that preserves the raw result. */\nasync function callLlmStructured(\n  req: LlmCallRequest,\n  opts: LlmClientOptions = {},\n): Promise<LlmCallResult> {\n  try {\n    return await callLlm({ ...req, jsonMode: req.jsonMode ?? !req.jsonSchema }, opts)\n  } catch (err) {\n    if (\n      opts.jsonSchemaTransport !== 'json-object' &&\n      err instanceof LlmCallError &&\n      isSchemaRejection(err.status, err.body) &&\n      req.jsonSchema\n    ) {\n      const degradedReq: LlmCallRequest = { ...req, jsonMode: true, jsonSchema: undefined }\n      return await callLlm(degradedReq, opts)\n    }\n    throw err\n  }\n}\n\nfunction parseJsonResult<T>(\n  result: LlmCallResult,\n  jsonPayloadMode: NonNullable<LlmClientOptions['jsonPayloadMode']>,\n): T {\n  try {\n    if (result.finishReason === 'length') {\n      throw new Error(\n        `LLM returned truncated JSON content (model=${result.model}, finishReason=length)`,\n      )\n    }\n    return parseJsonSafely<T>(result.content, result.model, jsonPayloadMode)\n  } catch (error) {\n    if (error instanceof LlmResponseError) throw error\n    const cause = error instanceof Error ? error : new Error(String(error))\n    throw new LlmResponseError(cause.message, result, { cause })\n  }\n}\n\nfunction parseJsonSafely<T>(\n  content: string,\n  model: string,\n  jsonPayloadMode: NonNullable<LlmClientOptions['jsonPayloadMode']>,\n): T {\n  const payload = jsonPayloadMode === 'exact' ? content : extractJsonPayload(content)\n  try {\n    return JSON.parse(payload) as T\n  } catch (err) {\n    throw new Error(\n      `LLM returned non-JSON content (model=${model}): ${\n        err instanceof Error ? err.message : String(err)\n      }\\n--- raw content ---\\n${content.slice(0, 800)}`,\n    )\n  }\n}\n\n// ─── Route assertion ────────────────────────────────────────────────────\n\nexport type LlmRouteAssertionReason =\n  | 'no_explicit_base_url'\n  | 'base_url_blocked'\n  | 'base_url_not_allowed'\n  | 'no_auth'\n  | 'wrong_provider'\n\nexport class LlmRouteAssertionError extends CaptureIntegrityError {\n  constructor(\n    message: string,\n    public readonly reason: LlmRouteAssertionReason,\n    public readonly baseUrl: string,\n  ) {\n    super(message)\n  }\n}\n\nexport interface LlmRouteRequirements {\n  /**\n   * Throw if `opts.baseUrl` is undefined, i.e. the call would fall back to\n   * `DEFAULT_BASE_URL`. Set this for evaluation runs where silently using\n   * the public/free-tier router is a defect — the launch reviewer needs to\n   * know exactly which provider answered.\n   */\n  requireExplicitBaseUrl?: boolean\n  /**\n   * Allowlist of acceptable base URLs. Strings match by prefix\n   * (case-insensitive); RegExps test against the full base URL.\n   */\n  allowedBaseUrls?: Array<string | RegExp>\n  /** Blocklist that takes precedence over `allowedBaseUrls`. */\n  blockedBaseUrls?: Array<string | RegExp>\n  /** Throw if no auth header / api key is configured. */\n  requireAuth?: boolean\n  /**\n   * Logical provider id the configured `baseUrl` is expected to match (via\n   * `providerFromBaseUrl`). Mainly useful when paired with `requireExplicitBaseUrl`.\n   */\n  expectedProvider?: string\n}\n\n/**\n * Fail-loud assertion that the configured LLM client points at the route\n * the caller intends. Designed for the matrix-runner preflight: invoke\n * once before any LLM call to catch misconfiguration before a sweep burns\n * dollars on the wrong provider.\n *\n * Throws `LlmRouteAssertionError`. Pure — no I/O — so it's safe to call\n * from constructors and CI gates.\n */\nexport function assertLlmRoute(opts: LlmClientOptions, req: LlmRouteRequirements = {}): void {\n  const baseUrlExplicit = opts.baseUrl !== undefined\n  const baseUrl = (opts.baseUrl ?? DEFAULT_BASE_URL).replace(/\\/+$/, '')\n\n  if (req.requireExplicitBaseUrl && !baseUrlExplicit) {\n    throw new LlmRouteAssertionError(\n      `assertLlmRoute: requireExplicitBaseUrl set but opts.baseUrl is undefined; would fall back to ${DEFAULT_BASE_URL}.`,\n      'no_explicit_base_url',\n      baseUrl,\n    )\n  }\n\n  if (req.blockedBaseUrls?.some((p) => matchUrl(baseUrl, p))) {\n    throw new LlmRouteAssertionError(\n      `assertLlmRoute: baseUrl ${baseUrl} matches a blocked pattern.`,\n      'base_url_blocked',\n      baseUrl,\n    )\n  }\n\n  if (req.allowedBaseUrls && req.allowedBaseUrls.length > 0) {\n    const ok = req.allowedBaseUrls.some((p) => matchUrl(baseUrl, p))\n    if (!ok) {\n      throw new LlmRouteAssertionError(\n        `assertLlmRoute: baseUrl ${baseUrl} is not in the allowed list (${req.allowedBaseUrls.map(describePattern).join(', ')}).`,\n        'base_url_not_allowed',\n        baseUrl,\n      )\n    }\n  }\n\n  if (req.requireAuth && !opts.apiKey && !opts.bearer && !opts.authHeader) {\n    throw new LlmRouteAssertionError(\n      `assertLlmRoute: requireAuth set but no apiKey, bearer, or authHeader was supplied.`,\n      'no_auth',\n      baseUrl,\n    )\n  }\n\n  if (req.expectedProvider) {\n    const actual = opts.provider ?? providerFromBaseUrl(baseUrl)\n    if (actual !== req.expectedProvider) {\n      throw new LlmRouteAssertionError(\n        `assertLlmRoute: expected provider ${req.expectedProvider} but baseUrl ${baseUrl} resolves to ${actual}.`,\n        'wrong_provider',\n        baseUrl,\n      )\n    }\n  }\n}\n\nfunction matchUrl(url: string, pattern: string | RegExp): boolean {\n  if (pattern instanceof RegExp) return pattern.test(url)\n  return url.toLowerCase().startsWith(pattern.toLowerCase())\n}\n\nfunction describePattern(p: string | RegExp): string {\n  return p instanceof RegExp ? p.source : p\n}\n\n/**\n * Probe whether a model is reachable. Returns latency + null error on\n * success; `ok=false` + error message on any failure (HTTP, timeout,\n * network, parse). Designed for sweep preflights — fail loud at the\n * boundary before burning a 30-leaf run on a misconfigured router.\n *\n * Sends a tiny `ping` message with `maxTokens=64`. Reasoning models\n * (glm-5.1, deepseek-v4) can burn the entire budget on internal reasoning\n * for short prompts, so don't tighten this further. We don't validate\n * content; HTTP 200 means reachable.\n */\nexport async function probeLlm(\n  model: string,\n  opts: LlmClientOptions & { timeoutMs?: number } = {},\n): Promise<{ ok: boolean; latencyMs: number; error: string | null }> {\n  const start = Date.now()\n  try {\n    await callLlm(\n      {\n        model,\n        messages: [{ role: 'user', content: 'ping' }],\n        maxTokens: 64,\n        timeoutMs: opts.timeoutMs ?? 30_000,\n      },\n      opts,\n    )\n    return { ok: true, latencyMs: Date.now() - start, error: null }\n  } catch (err) {\n    return {\n      ok: false,\n      latencyMs: Date.now() - start,\n      error: err instanceof Error ? err.message : String(err),\n    }\n  }\n}\n\n/**\n * Stateful client — construct once with defaults, call many times.\n * Thin wrapper around the free functions; exists for callers that want\n * to inject a single configured instance into multiple primitives.\n */\nexport class LlmClient {\n  readonly maximumAttempts: number\n  private readonly opts: LlmClientOptions\n\n  constructor(opts: LlmClientOptions = {}) {\n    this.opts = opts\n    this.maximumAttempts = resolveMaximumAttempts(opts.maximumAttempts)\n  }\n\n  call(req: LlmCallRequest, per?: LlmClientOptions): Promise<LlmCallResult> {\n    const options = { ...this.opts, ...per }\n    return req.jsonSchema ? callLlmStructured(req, options) : callLlm(req, options)\n  }\n\n  callJson<T = unknown>(\n    req: LlmCallRequest,\n    per?: LlmClientOptions,\n  ): Promise<{ value: T; result: LlmCallResult }> {\n    return callLlmJson<T>(req, { ...this.opts, ...per })\n  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package/dist/{chunk-VGRCHJON.js → chunk-T6RLYGAD.js}

@@ -77,14 +77,13 @@ function doublyRobust(trajectories, opts = {}) {
   if (trajectories.length === 0) {
     return {
       ...zeroEstimate(),
-      contributionCounts: { dr: 0, ipsFallback: 0, legacyScalar: 0 }
+      contributionCounts: { dr: 0, ipsFallback: 0 }
     };
   }
   const contributions = [];
   const contributionCounts = {
     dr: 0,
-    ipsFallback: 0,
-    legacyScalar: 0
+    ipsFallback: 0
   };
   let maxW = 0;
   let sumW = 0;
@@ -114,10 +113,6 @@ function doublyRobust(trajectories, opts = {}) {
       const vHatTarget = clamp(rawVHatTarget, clip.low, clip.high);
       contributions.push(vHatTarget + w * (r - qHatChosen));
       contributionCounts.dr += 1;
-    } else if (typeof t.qHat === "number" && Number.isFinite(t.qHat)) {
-      const qHat = clamp(t.qHat, clip.low, clip.high);
-      contributions.push(qHat + w * (r - qHat));
-      contributionCounts.legacyScalar += 1;
     } else {
       contributions.push(w * r);
       contributionCounts.ipsFallback += 1;
@@ -160,4 +155,4 @@ export {
   doublyRobust,
   offPolicyEstimateAll
 };
-//# sourceMappingURL=chunk-VGRCHJON.js.map
+//# sourceMappingURL=chunk-T6RLYGAD.js.map

package/dist/chunk-T6RLYGAD.js.map

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+{"version":3,"sources":["../src/rl/off-policy.ts"],"sourcesContent":["/**\n * Off-policy evaluation primitives.\n *\n * Standard inverse-probability-weighted (IPS), self-normalized\n * importance-weighted (SNIPS), and doubly-robust (DR) estimators for the\n * value of a *target* policy given trajectories collected under a\n * *behavior* policy. This is the canonical RL eval task: \"we have last\n * week's runs, we changed the policy — how would the new one do without\n * re-running?\"\n *\n * The math here is textbook (Dudík, Langford, Li 2011 for DR; Swaminathan\n * & Joachims 2015 for SNIPS) but the *application* to LLM-agent\n * evaluation needs care:\n *\n *   - The \"policy\" is the (prompt, tool config, model snapshot) triple.\n *     Two policies have the same probability over an action *iff* their\n *     LLM call would emit the same token with the same probability —\n *     which is generally unknowable without the model log-probs.\n *   - For LLM agents, propensity scores must be supplied by the caller\n *     (logged in the trace, recovered from token log-probs, or estimated\n *     via a learned propensity model). We do NOT estimate propensity here.\n *   - Doubly-robust requires two outputs from a Q-function: its prediction\n *     for the logged action and its expectation under the target policy.\n *     Consumers compute these with a tabular estimate, regression fit, or\n *     learned reward model before constructing the trajectories.\n *\n * Bias / variance tradeoffs:\n *   - IPS: unbiased; high variance for small overlap, infinite variance\n *     when target has support outside behavior.\n *   - SNIPS: lower variance, slight bias; usually preferred in practice.\n *   - DR: doubly-robust — unbiased if either propensity OR Q-function is\n *     correct. Lowest practical variance when Q is decent. Use this.\n *\n * Caveat the panel will land: on the LLM-agent setting, propensity scores\n * recovered from token log-probs are noisy, the action space is enormous,\n * and overlap is often poor. These estimators are useful but not magic;\n * complement with `replayCampaign` (exact replay where the request hashes\n * match) for high-confidence answers and OPE for the gap.\n */\n\nimport { ValidationError } from '../errors'\n\nexport interface OffPolicyTrajectory {\n  /** Stable id, for traceability through the dataset. */\n  runId: string\n  /** Reward observed under the behavior policy (the realized outcome). */\n  reward: number\n  /**\n   * Behavior-policy probability of the action that was taken. For LLM\n   * agents this is typically `exp(sum(token_log_probs))` over the chosen\n   * trajectory. Must be in (0, 1].\n   */\n  behaviorProb: number\n  /**\n   * Target-policy probability of the same action. For replay-style\n   * counterfactual evaluation this is what the *new* policy would have\n   * assigned to the *old* trajectory. Must be in [0, 1].\n   */\n  targetProb: number\n  /**\n   * Model-based reward prediction for the action selected by the behavior\n   * policy: `Q_hat(context, loggedAction)`. Supply this together with\n   * `vHatTarget` for contextual-bandit doubly-robust estimation.\n   */\n  qHatChosen?: number | null\n  /**\n   * Expected model-based reward under the target policy:\n   * `sum_action targetPolicy(action | context) * Q_hat(context, action)`.\n   * Supply this together with `qHatChosen`. For an honest evaluation, both\n   * values must come from a model cross-fitted or trained outside this row.\n   */\n  vHatTarget?: number | null\n}\n\nexport interface OffPolicyContributionCounts {\n  /** Contributions using the contextual-bandit doubly-robust formula. */\n  dr: number\n  /** Contributions using exact IPS because no reward-model estimate was supplied. */\n  ipsFallback: number\n}\n\nexport interface OffPolicyEstimate {\n  /** Estimated value of the target policy. */\n  value: number\n  /** Standard error of the estimate. */\n  standardError: number\n  /** Effective sample size (Kong 1992). Lower = more reliance on a few high-weight samples. */\n  effectiveSampleSize: number\n  /** Number of trajectories used. */\n  n: number\n  /**\n   * Diagnostic: maximum importance weight observed. Large values (>>10x\n   * mean) are a red flag — variance is dominated by a few outliers.\n   */\n  maxImportanceWeight: number\n  /** Populated by `doublyRobust` to expose which formula each row used. */\n  contributionCounts?: OffPolicyContributionCounts\n}\n\nexport interface OffPolicyOptions {\n  /**\n   * Cap importance weights at this value (Ionides 2008 truncated IS) to\n   * trade unbiasedness for variance reduction. Default `Infinity` (no cap).\n   * Set e.g. `10` for stable estimates when the policies are close.\n   */\n  weightCap?: number\n  /** Reward clipping range. Default `[0, 1]`. */\n  rewardClip?: { low: number; high: number }\n}\n\n/**\n * Inverse Probability Weighting (Horvitz-Thompson). Unbiased estimator\n * of E[reward under target policy]. Variance scales with the spread of\n * target/behavior ratios.\n */\nexport function inverseProbabilityWeighting(\n  trajectories: OffPolicyTrajectory[],\n  opts: OffPolicyOptions = {},\n): OffPolicyEstimate {\n  const cap = opts.weightCap ?? Infinity\n  const clip = opts.rewardClip ?? { low: 0, high: 1 }\n\n  if (trajectories.length === 0) {\n    return zeroEstimate()\n  }\n\n  const weights: number[] = []\n  const weightedRewards: number[] = []\n  let maxW = 0\n  for (const t of trajectories) {\n    if (t.behaviorProb <= 0) {\n      throw new ValidationError(\n        `inverseProbabilityWeighting: behaviorProb must be > 0 (runId=${t.runId})`,\n      )\n    }\n    const w = Math.min(cap, t.targetProb / t.behaviorProb)\n    const r = clamp(t.reward, clip.low, clip.high)\n    weights.push(w)\n    weightedRewards.push(w * r)\n    if (w > maxW) maxW = w\n  }\n  const n = weights.length\n  const value = weightedRewards.reduce((s, x) => s + x, 0) / n\n  const variance = weightedRewards.reduce((s, x) => s + (x - value) ** 2, 0) / Math.max(1, n - 1)\n  const sumW = weights.reduce((s, w) => s + w, 0)\n  const sumW2 = weights.reduce((s, w) => s + w * w, 0)\n  const effN = sumW === 0 ? 0 : (sumW * sumW) / sumW2\n\n  return {\n    value,\n    standardError: Math.sqrt(variance / n),\n    effectiveSampleSize: effN,\n    n,\n    maxImportanceWeight: maxW,\n  }\n}\n\n/**\n * Self-Normalized Importance Sampling. Lower variance than vanilla IPS at\n * the cost of small bias (vanishing as N grows). The right default for\n * LLM-agent evaluation where overlap is often poor.\n */\nexport function selfNormalizedImportanceWeighting(\n  trajectories: OffPolicyTrajectory[],\n  opts: OffPolicyOptions = {},\n): OffPolicyEstimate {\n  const cap = opts.weightCap ?? Infinity\n  const clip = opts.rewardClip ?? { low: 0, high: 1 }\n  if (trajectories.length === 0) return zeroEstimate()\n\n  const weights: number[] = []\n  const rewards: number[] = []\n  let maxW = 0\n  for (const t of trajectories) {\n    if (t.behaviorProb <= 0) {\n      throw new ValidationError(\n        `selfNormalizedImportanceWeighting: behaviorProb must be > 0 (runId=${t.runId})`,\n      )\n    }\n    const w = Math.min(cap, t.targetProb / t.behaviorProb)\n    weights.push(w)\n    rewards.push(clamp(t.reward, clip.low, clip.high))\n    if (w > maxW) maxW = w\n  }\n  const sumW = weights.reduce((s, w) => s + w, 0)\n  const sumWR = weights.reduce((s, w, i) => s + w * rewards[i]!, 0)\n  const value = sumW === 0 ? 0 : sumWR / sumW\n  const sumW2 = weights.reduce((s, w) => s + w * w, 0)\n  const effN = sumW === 0 ? 0 : (sumW * sumW) / sumW2\n  // Influence-function-based SE for SNIPS (Owen 2013, Ch. 9).\n  const phi = weights.map((w, i) => w * (rewards[i]! - value))\n  const variance = phi.reduce((s, x) => s + x * x, 0) / Math.max(1, sumW * sumW)\n  return {\n    value,\n    standardError: Math.sqrt(variance),\n    effectiveSampleSize: effN,\n    n: trajectories.length,\n    maxImportanceWeight: maxW,\n  }\n}\n\n/**\n * Doubly-robust off-policy estimator (Dudík, Langford, Li 2011).\n *\n *     V_DR = (1/N) * sum_i [ v_hat_target_i\n *              + (target_prob_i / behavior_prob_i) * (r_i - q_hat_chosen_i) ]\n *\n * Unbiased if EITHER:\n *   - the importance ratios are correct (IPS-style validity), OR\n *   - the Q-hat function is correct (model-based validity).\n *\n * In practice both are imperfect, but the residual bias is the *product*\n * of both errors — much smaller than either alone. This is why DR is the\n * default in production OPE pipelines.\n *\n * `qHatChosen` and `vHatTarget` must be supplied together. Rows with neither\n * use the exact IPS contribution. `contributionCounts` makes the mix explicit\n * in the result.\n * Callers must cross-fit the Q-function or train it on independent rows;\n * fitting and evaluating Q on the same outcomes leaks the answer.\n */\nexport function doublyRobust(\n  trajectories: OffPolicyTrajectory[],\n  opts: OffPolicyOptions = {},\n): OffPolicyEstimate {\n  const cap = opts.weightCap ?? Infinity\n  const clip = opts.rewardClip ?? { low: 0, high: 1 }\n  if (trajectories.length === 0) {\n    return {\n      ...zeroEstimate(),\n      contributionCounts: { dr: 0, ipsFallback: 0 },\n    }\n  }\n\n  const contributions: number[] = []\n  const contributionCounts: OffPolicyContributionCounts = {\n    dr: 0,\n    ipsFallback: 0,\n  }\n  let maxW = 0\n  let sumW = 0\n  let sumW2 = 0\n  for (const t of trajectories) {\n    if (t.behaviorProb <= 0) {\n      throw new ValidationError(`doublyRobust: behaviorProb must be > 0 (runId=${t.runId})`)\n    }\n    const w = Math.min(cap, t.targetProb / t.behaviorProb)\n    const r = clamp(t.reward, clip.low, clip.high)\n    const rawQHatChosen = t.qHatChosen\n    const rawVHatTarget = t.vHatTarget\n    const hasQHatChosen = rawQHatChosen !== null && rawQHatChosen !== undefined\n    const hasVHatTarget = rawVHatTarget !== null && rawVHatTarget !== undefined\n    if (hasQHatChosen !== hasVHatTarget) {\n      throw new ValidationError(\n        `doublyRobust: qHatChosen and vHatTarget must be supplied together (runId=${t.runId})`,\n      )\n    }\n\n    if (hasQHatChosen && hasVHatTarget) {\n      if (!Number.isFinite(rawQHatChosen) || !Number.isFinite(rawVHatTarget)) {\n        throw new ValidationError(\n          `doublyRobust: qHatChosen and vHatTarget must be finite (runId=${t.runId})`,\n        )\n      }\n      const qHatChosen = clamp(rawQHatChosen, clip.low, clip.high)\n      const vHatTarget = clamp(rawVHatTarget, clip.low, clip.high)\n      contributions.push(vHatTarget + w * (r - qHatChosen))\n      contributionCounts.dr += 1\n    } else {\n      contributions.push(w * r)\n      contributionCounts.ipsFallback += 1\n    }\n    if (w > maxW) maxW = w\n    sumW += w\n    sumW2 += w * w\n  }\n  const n = contributions.length\n  const value = contributions.reduce((s, x) => s + x, 0) / n\n  const variance = contributions.reduce((s, x) => s + (x - value) ** 2, 0) / Math.max(1, n - 1)\n  const effN = sumW === 0 ? 0 : (sumW * sumW) / sumW2\n  return {\n    value,\n    standardError: Math.sqrt(variance / n),\n    effectiveSampleSize: effN,\n    n,\n    maxImportanceWeight: maxW,\n    contributionCounts,\n  }\n}\n\n/**\n * Convenience: run all three estimators and return them side-by-side.\n * The recommended diagnostic — agreement across estimators is a much\n * stronger signal than any single one.\n */\nexport function offPolicyEstimateAll(\n  trajectories: OffPolicyTrajectory[],\n  opts: OffPolicyOptions = {},\n): { ips: OffPolicyEstimate; snips: OffPolicyEstimate; dr: OffPolicyEstimate } {\n  return {\n    ips: inverseProbabilityWeighting(trajectories, opts),\n    snips: selfNormalizedImportanceWeighting(trajectories, opts),\n    dr: doublyRobust(trajectories, opts),\n  }\n}\n\n// ── Helpers ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────\n\nfunction zeroEstimate(): OffPolicyEstimate {\n  return { value: 0, standardError: 0, effectiveSampleSize: 0, n: 0, maxImportanceWeight: 0 }\n}\n\nfunction clamp(x: number, lo: number, hi: number): number {\n  if (!Number.isFinite(x)) return lo\n  return Math.max(lo, Math.min(hi, x))\n}\n"],"mappings":";;;;;AAmHO,SAAS,4BACd,cACA,OAAyB,CAAC,GACP;AACnB,QAAM,MAAM,KAAK,aAAa;AAC9B,QAAM,OAAO,KAAK,cAAc,EAAE,KAAK,GAAG,MAAM,EAAE;AAElD,MAAI,aAAa,WAAW,GAAG;AAC7B,WAAO,aAAa;AAAA,EACtB;AAEA,QAAM,UAAoB,CAAC;AAC3B,QAAM,kBAA4B,CAAC;AACnC,MAAI,OAAO;AACX,aAAW,KAAK,cAAc;AAC5B,QAAI,EAAE,gBAAgB,GAAG;AACvB,YAAM,IAAI;AAAA,QACR,gEAAgE,EAAE,KAAK;AAAA,MACzE;AAAA,IACF;AACA,UAAM,IAAI,KAAK,IAAI,KAAK,EAAE,aAAa,EAAE,YAAY;AACrD,UAAM,IAAI,MAAM,EAAE,QAAQ,KAAK,KAAK,KAAK,IAAI;AAC7C,YAAQ,KAAK,CAAC;AACd,oBAAgB,KAAK,IAAI,CAAC;AAC1B,QAAI,IAAI,KAAM,QAAO;AAAA,EACvB;AACA,QAAM,IAAI,QAAQ;AAClB,QAAM,QAAQ,gBAAgB,OAAO,CAAC,GAAG,MAAM,IAAI,GAAG,CAAC,IAAI;AAC3D,QAAM,WAAW,gBAAgB,OAAO,CAAC,GAAG,MAAM,KAAK,IAAI,UAAU,GAAG,CAAC,IAAI,KAAK,IAAI,GAAG,IAAI,CAAC;AAC9F,QAAM,OAAO,QAAQ,OAAO,CAAC,GAAG,MAAM,IAAI,GAAG,CAAC;AAC9C,QAAM,QAAQ,QAAQ,OAAO,CAAC,GAAG,MAAM,IAAI,IAAI,GAAG,CAAC;AACnD,QAAM,OAAO,SAAS,IAAI,IAAK,OAAO,OAAQ;AAE9C,SAAO;AAAA,IACL;AAAA,IACA,eAAe,KAAK,KAAK,WAAW,CAAC;AAAA,IACrC,qBAAqB;AAAA,IACrB;AAAA,IACA,qBAAqB;AAAA,EACvB;AACF;AAOO,SAAS,kCACd,cACA,OAAyB,CAAC,GACP;AACnB,QAAM,MAAM,KAAK,aAAa;AAC9B,QAAM,OAAO,KAAK,cAAc,EAAE,KAAK,GAAG,MAAM,EAAE;AAClD,MAAI,aAAa,WAAW,EAAG,QAAO,aAAa;AAEnD,QAAM,UAAoB,CAAC;AAC3B,QAAM,UAAoB,CAAC;AAC3B,MAAI,OAAO;AACX,aAAW,KAAK,cAAc;AAC5B,QAAI,EAAE,gBAAgB,GAAG;AACvB,YAAM,IAAI;AAAA,QACR,sEAAsE,EAAE,KAAK;AAAA,MAC/E;AAAA,IACF;AACA,UAAM,IAAI,KAAK,IAAI,KAAK,EAAE,aAAa,EAAE,YAAY;AACrD,YAAQ,KAAK,CAAC;AACd,YAAQ,KAAK,MAAM,EAAE,QAAQ,KAAK,KAAK,KAAK,IAAI,CAAC;AACjD,QAAI,IAAI,KAAM,QAAO;AAAA,EACvB;AACA,QAAM,OAAO,QAAQ,OAAO,CAAC,GAAG,MAAM,IAAI,GAAG,CAAC;AAC9C,QAAM,QAAQ,QAAQ,OAAO,CAAC,GAAG,GAAG,MAAM,IAAI,IAAI,QAAQ,CAAC,GAAI,CAAC;AAChE,QAAM,QAAQ,SAAS,IAAI,IAAI,QAAQ;AACvC,QAAM,QAAQ,QAAQ,OAAO,CAAC,GAAG,MAAM,IAAI,IAAI,GAAG,CAAC;AACnD,QAAM,OAAO,SAAS,IAAI,IAAK,OAAO,OAAQ;AAE9C,QAAM,MAAM,QAAQ,IAAI,CAAC,GAAG,MAAM,KAAK,QAAQ,CAAC,IAAK,MAAM;AAC3D,QAAM,WAAW,IAAI,OAAO,CAAC,GAAG,MAAM,IAAI,IAAI,GAAG,CAAC,IAAI,KAAK,IAAI,GAAG,OAAO,IAAI;AAC7E,SAAO;AAAA,IACL;AAAA,IACA,eAAe,KAAK,KAAK,QAAQ;AAAA,IACjC,qBAAqB;AAAA,IACrB,GAAG,aAAa;AAAA,IAChB,qBAAqB;AAAA,EACvB;AACF;AAsBO,SAAS,aACd,cACA,OAAyB,CAAC,GACP;AACnB,QAAM,MAAM,KAAK,aAAa;AAC9B,QAAM,OAAO,KAAK,cAAc,EAAE,KAAK,GAAG,MAAM,EAAE;AAClD,MAAI,aAAa,WAAW,GAAG;AAC7B,WAAO;AAAA,MACL,GAAG,aAAa;AAAA,MAChB,oBAAoB,EAAE,IAAI,GAAG,aAAa,EAAE;AAAA,IAC9C;AAAA,EACF;AAEA,QAAM,gBAA0B,CAAC;AACjC,QAAM,qBAAkD;AAAA,IACtD,IAAI;AAAA,IACJ,aAAa;AAAA,EACf;AACA,MAAI,OAAO;AACX,MAAI,OAAO;AACX,MAAI,QAAQ;AACZ,aAAW,KAAK,cAAc;AAC5B,QAAI,EAAE,gBAAgB,GAAG;AACvB,YAAM,IAAI,gBAAgB,iDAAiD,EAAE,KAAK,GAAG;AAAA,IACvF;AACA,UAAM,IAAI,KAAK,IAAI,KAAK,EAAE,aAAa,EAAE,YAAY;AACrD,UAAM,IAAI,MAAM,EAAE,QAAQ,KAAK,KAAK,KAAK,IAAI;AAC7C,UAAM,gBAAgB,EAAE;AACxB,UAAM,gBAAgB,EAAE;AACxB,UAAM,gBAAgB,kBAAkB,QAAQ,kBAAkB;AAClE,UAAM,gBAAgB,kBAAkB,QAAQ,kBAAkB;AAClE,QAAI,kBAAkB,eAAe;AACnC,YAAM,IAAI;AAAA,QACR,4EAA4E,EAAE,KAAK;AAAA,MACrF;AAAA,IACF;AAEA,QAAI,iBAAiB,eAAe;AAClC,UAAI,CAAC,OAAO,SAAS,aAAa,KAAK,CAAC,OAAO,SAAS,aAAa,GAAG;AACtE,cAAM,IAAI;AAAA,UACR,iEAAiE,EAAE,KAAK;AAAA,QAC1E;AAAA,MACF;AACA,YAAM,aAAa,MAAM,eAAe,KAAK,KAAK,KAAK,IAAI;AAC3D,YAAM,aAAa,MAAM,eAAe,KAAK,KAAK,KAAK,IAAI;AAC3D,oBAAc,KAAK,aAAa,KAAK,IAAI,WAAW;AACpD,yBAAmB,MAAM;AAAA,IAC3B,OAAO;AACL,oBAAc,KAAK,IAAI,CAAC;AACxB,yBAAmB,eAAe;AAAA,IACpC;AACA,QAAI,IAAI,KAAM,QAAO;AACrB,YAAQ;AACR,aAAS,IAAI;AAAA,EACf;AACA,QAAM,IAAI,cAAc;AACxB,QAAM,QAAQ,cAAc,OAAO,CAAC,GAAG,MAAM,IAAI,GAAG,CAAC,IAAI;AACzD,QAAM,WAAW,cAAc,OAAO,CAAC,GAAG,MAAM,KAAK,IAAI,UAAU,GAAG,CAAC,IAAI,KAAK,IAAI,GAAG,IAAI,CAAC;AAC5F,QAAM,OAAO,SAAS,IAAI,IAAK,OAAO,OAAQ;AAC9C,SAAO;AAAA,IACL;AAAA,IACA,eAAe,KAAK,KAAK,WAAW,CAAC;AAAA,IACrC,qBAAqB;AAAA,IACrB;AAAA,IACA,qBAAqB;AAAA,IACrB;AAAA,EACF;AACF;AAOO,SAAS,qBACd,cACA,OAAyB,CAAC,GACmD;AAC7E,SAAO;AAAA,IACL,KAAK,4BAA4B,cAAc,IAAI;AAAA,IACnD,OAAO,kCAAkC,cAAc,IAAI;AAAA,IAC3D,IAAI,aAAa,cAAc,IAAI;AAAA,EACrC;AACF;AAIA,SAAS,eAAkC;AACzC,SAAO,EAAE,OAAO,GAAG,eAAe,GAAG,qBAAqB,GAAG,GAAG,GAAG,qBAAqB,EAAE;AAC5F;AAEA,SAAS,MAAM,GAAW,IAAY,IAAoB;AACxD,MAAI,CAAC,OAAO,SAAS,CAAC,EAAG,QAAO;AAChC,SAAO,KAAK,IAAI,IAAI,KAAK,IAAI,IAAI,CAAC,CAAC;AACrC;","names":[]}

package/dist/{chunk-VLOATJQ2.js → chunk-TJVT4QFF.js}

@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
 import {
   pairRunRecords
-} from "./chunk-DPUHNQLN.js";
+} from "./chunk-7FO3TNPI.js";
 import {
   benjaminiHochberg,
   confidenceInterval,
@@ -8,11 +8,14 @@ import {
   pairedCohensDz,
   pairedMde,
   wilcoxonSignedRank
-} from "./chunk-MHELPNRP.js";
+} from "./chunk-ZHTZ4EYI.js";
 import {
   canonicalize,
   hashJson
-} from "./chunk-2JX3CFMB.js";
+} from "./chunk-56TAVBOK.js";
+import {
+  observedSplitScore
+} from "./chunk-OIUOT4QD.js";
 
 // src/summary-report.ts
 function summaryTable(runs, opts = {}) {
@@ -20,11 +23,10 @@ function summaryTable(runs, opts = {}) {
   const confidence = opts.confidence ?? 0.95;
   const fdr = opts.fdr ?? 0.05;
   const comparator = opts.comparator ?? null;
-  const scoreField = split === "holdout" ? "holdoutScore" : "searchScore";
   const byCandidate = /* @__PURE__ */ new Map();
   for (const r of runs) {
     if (r.splitTag !== split) continue;
-    const v = r.outcome[scoreField];
+    const v = observedSplitScore(r, split);
     if (typeof v !== "number" || !Number.isFinite(v)) continue;
     const bucket = byCandidate.get(r.candidateId) ?? { runs: [], scores: [] };
     bucket.runs.push(r);
@@ -43,7 +45,7 @@ function summaryTable(runs, opts = {}) {
     let unpairedCandidateN = null;
     let unpairedComparatorN = null;
     if (comparator && compRuns && id !== comparator) {
-      const paired = pairScoresByKey(bucket.runs, compRuns.runs, scoreField);
+      const paired = pairScoresByKey(bucket.runs, compRuns.runs, split);
       pairedN = paired.before.length;
       unpairedCandidateN = paired.unpairedCandidateN;
       unpairedComparatorN = paired.unpairedComparatorN;
@@ -87,13 +89,17 @@ function summaryTable(runs, opts = {}) {
   const markdown = renderSummaryTableMarkdown(rows, comparator, split);
   return { rows, comparator, split, markdown };
 }
-function pairScoresByKey(candidate, baseline, scoreField) {
-  const scoredCandidate = candidate.filter((run) => Number.isFinite(run.outcome[scoreField]));
-  const scoredBaseline = baseline.filter((run) => Number.isFinite(run.outcome[scoreField]));
+function pairScoresByKey(candidate, baseline, split) {
+  const scoreOf = (run) => {
+    const v = observedSplitScore(run, split);
+    return typeof v === "number" && Number.isFinite(v) ? v : void 0;
+  };
+  const scoredCandidate = candidate.filter((run) => scoreOf(run) !== void 0);
+  const scoredBaseline = baseline.filter((run) => scoreOf(run) !== void 0);
   const pairing = pairRunRecords(scoredBaseline, scoredCandidate);
   return {
-    before: pairing.pairs.map((pair) => pair.baseline.outcome[scoreField]),
-    after: pairing.pairs.map((pair) => pair.treatment.outcome[scoreField]),
+    before: pairing.pairs.map((pair) => scoreOf(pair.baseline)),
+    after: pairing.pairs.map((pair) => scoreOf(pair.treatment)),
     unpairedCandidateN: pairing.unpairedTreatment.length,
     unpairedComparatorN: pairing.unpairedBaseline.length
   };
@@ -119,11 +125,10 @@ function renderSummaryTableMarkdown(rows, comparator, split) {
 }
 function paretoChart(runs, opts = {}) {
   const split = opts.split ?? "holdout";
-  const scoreField = split === "holdout" ? "holdoutScore" : "searchScore";
   const buckets = /* @__PURE__ */ new Map();
   for (const r of runs) {
     if (r.splitTag !== split) continue;
-    const v = r.outcome[scoreField];
+    const v = observedSplitScore(r, split);
     if (typeof v !== "number" || !Number.isFinite(v)) continue;
     if (r.costUsd === null) continue;
     const bucket = buckets.get(r.candidateId) ?? { cost: [], quality: [] };
@@ -160,7 +165,6 @@ function gateLabel(d) {
 }
 function gainHistogram(runs, candidateId, comparator, opts = {}) {
   const split = opts.split ?? "holdout";
-  const scoreField = split === "holdout" ? "holdoutScore" : "searchScore";
   const binCount = opts.bins ?? 11;
   if (binCount < 1) throw new Error("gainHistogram: bins must be \u2265 1");
   const candidate = runs.filter((r) => r.candidateId === candidateId && r.splitTag === split);
@@ -168,7 +172,7 @@ function gainHistogram(runs, candidateId, comparator, opts = {}) {
   const { before, after, unpairedCandidateN, unpairedComparatorN } = pairScoresByKey(
     candidate,
     baseline,
-    scoreField
+    split
   );
   const n = before.length;
   if (n === 0) {
@@ -225,10 +229,9 @@ function gainHistogram(runs, candidateId, comparator, opts = {}) {
 }
 var RESEARCH_REPORT_HARD_PAIR_FLOOR = 6;
 function pairedPosterior(runs, candidateId, comparator, opts) {
-  const scoreField = opts.split === "holdout" ? "holdoutScore" : "searchScore";
   const candidate = runs.filter((r) => r.candidateId === candidateId && r.splitTag === opts.split);
   const baseline = runs.filter((r) => r.candidateId === comparator && r.splitTag === opts.split);
-  const { before, after } = pairScoresByKey(candidate, baseline, scoreField);
+  const { before, after } = pairScoresByKey(candidate, baseline, opts.split);
   const n = before.length;
   if (n === 0) return null;
   const deltas = before.map((b, i) => after[i] - b);
@@ -905,4 +908,4 @@ export {
   RESEARCH_REPORT_HARD_PAIR_FLOOR,
   researchReport
 };
-//# sourceMappingURL=chunk-VLOATJQ2.js.map
+//# sourceMappingURL=chunk-TJVT4QFF.js.map

package/dist/chunk-TJVT4QFF.js.map

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+{"version":3,"sources":["../src/summary-report.ts"],"sourcesContent":["/**\n * Reporting helpers — production summaries and paper-quality figures — sit alongside `reporter.ts` rather\n * than replacing it.\n *\n * Three artefacts:\n *\n *   - `summaryTable`           Markdown table of per-candidate means,\n *                            95% bootstrap CIs, BH-adjusted Wilcoxon\n *                            p-values, and Cohen's d versus a\n *                            comparator candidate.\n *   - `paretoChart`         Abstract spec for a cost vs quality\n *                            scatter, with gate decisions overlaid.\n *                            Returns numbers + labels — caller\n *                            chooses the plotting library.\n *   - `gainHistogram`\n *                            Per-item paired holdout deltas as a\n *                            histogram spec (bins + counts + median +\n *                            CI). Same \"data, not images\" contract.\n *\n * The figure types are PlotSpecs — JSON-friendly, library-agnostic.\n * They aren't React components and they aren't PNGs; they are\n * what you'd hand to vega-lite, plotly, matplotlib, or your own\n * Canvas renderer to draw the actual figure.\n */\n\nimport type { GateDecision } from './held-out-gate'\nimport { pairRunRecords } from './paired-arms'\nimport type { FailureClusterReport } from './pipelines/failure-cluster'\nimport { canonicalize, hashJson } from './pre-registration'\nimport { observedSplitScore, type ScorePreference } from './rollout/reward'\nimport type { RunRecord } from './run-record'\nimport {\n  benjaminiHochberg,\n  confidenceInterval,\n  pairedBootstrap,\n  pairedCohensDz,\n  pairedMde,\n  wilcoxonSignedRank,\n} from './statistics'\n\n// ── summaryTable ───────────────────────────────────────────────────────\n\nexport interface SummaryTableOptions {\n  /** Comparator candidate id. Wilcoxon + paired Cohen's dz are computed\n   *  versus this candidate. Required for paired stats columns. */\n  comparator?: string\n  /** Which split to read scores from. Default 'holdout'. */\n  split?: 'search' | 'holdout'\n  /** Confidence level for the bootstrap CI on the mean. Default 0.95. */\n  confidence?: number\n  /** FDR for BH adjustment of the comparison p-values. Default 0.05. */\n  fdr?: number\n}\n\nexport interface SummaryTableRow {\n  candidateId: string\n  n: number\n  mean: number\n  ciLow: number\n  ciHigh: number\n  /** BH-adjusted q-value vs comparator, or null when unavailable. */\n  qValue: number | null\n  /** Paired Cohen's dz vs comparator, or null when the paired variance is zero. */\n  cohensD: number | null\n  /** Matched observations used for paired comparison, or null on the comparator row. */\n  pairedN: number | null\n  /** Candidate observations without a comparator match. */\n  unpairedCandidateN: number | null\n  /** Comparator observations without a candidate match. */\n  unpairedComparatorN: number | null\n}\n\nexport interface SummaryTable {\n  rows: SummaryTableRow[]\n  comparator: string | null\n  split: 'search' | 'holdout'\n  /** Pre-rendered markdown — drop into a paper or PR. */\n  markdown: string\n}\n\n/**\n * Table 1 helper. Buckets runs by `candidateId`, computes mean +\n * bootstrap CI on the chosen split, and (when a comparator is given)\n * BH-adjusted Wilcoxon p + paired Cohen's dz versus that comparator.\n */\nexport function summaryTable(runs: RunRecord[], opts: SummaryTableOptions = {}): SummaryTable {\n  const split = opts.split ?? 'holdout'\n  const confidence = opts.confidence ?? 0.95\n  const fdr = opts.fdr ?? 0.05\n  const comparator = opts.comparator ?? null\n\n  const byCandidate = new Map<string, { runs: RunRecord[]; scores: number[] }>()\n  for (const r of runs) {\n    if (r.splitTag !== split) continue\n    // RAW (`observedSplitScore`): every figure in this module reports what the\n    // runs scored. Zeroing a gamed run here would erase it from the very table\n    // a reviewer reads to notice it, and the split is already filtered above,\n    // so the exact-split reader is the right one — no cross-split fallback.\n    const v = observedSplitScore(r, split)\n    if (typeof v !== 'number' || !Number.isFinite(v)) continue\n    const bucket = byCandidate.get(r.candidateId) ?? { runs: [], scores: [] }\n    bucket.runs.push(r)\n    bucket.scores.push(v)\n    byCandidate.set(r.candidateId, bucket)\n  }\n\n  const candidateIds = [...byCandidate.keys()].sort()\n  const compRuns = comparator ? byCandidate.get(comparator) : undefined\n\n  // First pass: per-candidate means + CIs + raw p-values.\n  const tentative: Array<SummaryTableRow & { rawP: number | null }> = []\n  for (const id of candidateIds) {\n    const bucket = byCandidate.get(id)!\n    const ci = confidenceInterval(bucket.scores, confidence)\n    let rawP: number | null = null\n    let d: number | null = null\n    let pairedN: number | null = null\n    let unpairedCandidateN: number | null = null\n    let unpairedComparatorN: number | null = null\n    if (comparator && compRuns && id !== comparator) {\n      const paired = pairScoresByKey(bucket.runs, compRuns.runs, split)\n      pairedN = paired.before.length\n      unpairedCandidateN = paired.unpairedCandidateN\n      unpairedComparatorN = paired.unpairedComparatorN\n      if (paired.before.length >= 6) {\n        rawP = wilcoxonSignedRank(paired.before, paired.after).p\n      }\n      d = pairedCohensDz(paired.before, paired.after)\n    }\n    tentative.push({\n      candidateId: id,\n      n: bucket.scores.length,\n      mean: ci.mean,\n      ciLow: ci.lower,\n      ciHigh: ci.upper,\n      qValue: rawP,\n      cohensD: d,\n      pairedN,\n      unpairedCandidateN,\n      unpairedComparatorN,\n      rawP,\n    })\n  }\n\n  // BH-adjust across the comparison set (skip NaN rows / the\n  // comparator itself). Adjustment is a no-op when there are 0 or 1\n  // comparators.\n  if (comparator) {\n    const idxs: number[] = []\n    const ps: number[] = []\n    for (let i = 0; i < tentative.length; i++) {\n      const r = tentative[i]!\n      if (r.candidateId === comparator) continue\n      if (r.rawP === null || !Number.isFinite(r.rawP)) continue\n      idxs.push(i)\n      ps.push(r.rawP)\n    }\n    if (ps.length > 0) {\n      const { qValues } = benjaminiHochberg(ps, fdr)\n      for (let k = 0; k < idxs.length; k++) {\n        tentative[idxs[k]!]!.qValue = qValues[k]!\n      }\n    }\n  }\n\n  const rows = tentative.map(({ rawP: _rawP, ...rest }) => rest)\n  const markdown = renderSummaryTableMarkdown(rows, comparator, split)\n  return { rows, comparator, split, markdown }\n}\n\nfunction pairScoresByKey(\n  candidate: RunRecord[],\n  baseline: RunRecord[],\n  split: ScorePreference,\n): {\n  before: number[]\n  after: number[]\n  unpairedCandidateN: number\n  unpairedComparatorN: number\n} {\n  // RAW, split-exact reads through `observedSplitScore` — the single allowed\n  // spelling of the split-score derivation (see rollout/score-derivation-guard).\n  const scoreOf = (run: RunRecord): number | undefined => {\n    const v = observedSplitScore(run, split)\n    return typeof v === 'number' && Number.isFinite(v) ? v : undefined\n  }\n  const scoredCandidate = candidate.filter((run) => scoreOf(run) !== undefined)\n  const scoredBaseline = baseline.filter((run) => scoreOf(run) !== undefined)\n  const pairing = pairRunRecords(scoredBaseline, scoredCandidate)\n  return {\n    before: pairing.pairs.map((pair) => scoreOf(pair.baseline) as number),\n    after: pairing.pairs.map((pair) => scoreOf(pair.treatment) as number),\n    unpairedCandidateN: pairing.unpairedTreatment.length,\n    unpairedComparatorN: pairing.unpairedBaseline.length,\n  }\n}\n\nfunction renderSummaryTableMarkdown(\n  rows: SummaryTableRow[],\n  comparator: string | null,\n  split: 'search' | 'holdout',\n): string {\n  const lines: string[] = []\n  const cmpLabel = comparator ? ` (vs ${comparator})` : ''\n  lines.push(`Summary Table — ${split} split${cmpLabel}`)\n  lines.push('')\n  lines.push(\"| Candidate | N | Pairs | Unpaired | Mean | 95% CI | q (BH) | Cohen's dz |\")\n  lines.push('|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---|---:|---:|')\n  for (const r of rows) {\n    const ci = `[${fmt(r.ciLow)}, ${fmt(r.ciHigh)}]`\n    const q = r.qValue !== null ? r.qValue.toFixed(4) : '—'\n    const d = r.cohensD !== null ? r.cohensD.toFixed(3) : '—'\n    const paired = r.pairedN ?? '—'\n    const unpaired =\n      r.unpairedCandidateN === null || r.unpairedComparatorN === null\n        ? '—'\n        : `${r.unpairedCandidateN}/${r.unpairedComparatorN}`\n    lines.push(\n      `| ${r.candidateId} | ${r.n} | ${paired} | ${unpaired} | ${fmt(r.mean)} | ${ci} | ${q} | ${d} |`,\n    )\n  }\n  return lines.join('\\n')\n}\n\n// ── paretoChart ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────\n\nexport interface ParetoPoint {\n  candidateId: string\n  /** Mean USD cost per run on the chosen split. */\n  cost: number\n  /** Mean score on the chosen split. */\n  quality: number\n  /** Number of runs that informed this point. */\n  n: number\n  /** Whether this candidate is on the Pareto frontier — high\n   *  quality, low cost, no dominator. */\n  onFrontier: boolean\n  /** Optional gate verdict for this candidate, if a `GateDecision`\n   *  for it was passed in. */\n  gate?: 'promote' | 'reject'\n}\n\nexport interface ParetoFigureSpec {\n  kind: 'pareto-cost-quality'\n  split: 'search' | 'holdout'\n  points: ParetoPoint[]\n  axes: { x: 'costUsd'; y: 'score' }\n}\n\n/**\n * Cost vs quality scatter spec. `gateDecisions` is keyed by\n * candidate id; if present, every point picks up the gate verdict\n * for overlay.\n */\nexport function paretoChart(\n  runs: RunRecord[],\n  opts: {\n    split?: 'search' | 'holdout'\n    gateDecisions?: Record<string, GateDecision>\n  } = {},\n): ParetoFigureSpec {\n  const split = opts.split ?? 'holdout'\n\n  const buckets = new Map<string, { cost: number[]; quality: number[] }>()\n  for (const r of runs) {\n    if (r.splitTag !== split) continue\n    const v = observedSplitScore(r, split)\n    if (typeof v !== 'number' || !Number.isFinite(v)) continue\n    if (r.costUsd === null) continue\n    const bucket = buckets.get(r.candidateId) ?? { cost: [], quality: [] }\n    bucket.cost.push(r.costUsd)\n    bucket.quality.push(v)\n    buckets.set(r.candidateId, bucket)\n  }\n\n  const points: ParetoPoint[] = []\n  for (const [candidateId, bucket] of buckets.entries()) {\n    points.push({\n      candidateId,\n      cost: avg(bucket.cost),\n      quality: avg(bucket.quality),\n      n: bucket.cost.length,\n      onFrontier: false,\n      gate: opts.gateDecisions?.[candidateId]\n        ? gateLabel(opts.gateDecisions[candidateId]!)\n        : undefined,\n    })\n  }\n\n  // Pareto: minimize cost, maximize quality. A point is dominated if\n  // some other point has lower-or-equal cost AND higher-or-equal\n  // quality with strict inequality somewhere.\n  for (const p of points) {\n    p.onFrontier = !points.some((q) => q !== p && dominates(q, p))\n  }\n\n  return {\n    kind: 'pareto-cost-quality',\n    split,\n    axes: { x: 'costUsd', y: 'score' },\n    points,\n  }\n}\n\nfunction dominates(a: ParetoPoint, b: ParetoPoint): boolean {\n  return a.cost <= b.cost && a.quality >= b.quality && (a.cost < b.cost || a.quality > b.quality)\n}\n\nfunction gateLabel(d: GateDecision): ParetoPoint['gate'] {\n  return d.promote ? 'promote' : 'reject'\n}\n\n// ── gainHistogram ───────────────────────────────────────────\n\nexport interface GainDistributionBin {\n  /** Inclusive lower edge. */\n  lo: number\n  /** Exclusive upper edge (or inclusive if it's the last bin). */\n  hi: number\n  /** Number of pairs whose delta lands in this bin. */\n  count: number\n}\n\nexport interface GainDistributionFigureSpec {\n  kind: 'gain-distribution'\n  candidateId: string\n  comparator: string\n  split: 'search' | 'holdout'\n  /** Number of pairs used. */\n  n: number\n  /** Candidate rows without a comparator match. */\n  unpairedCandidateN: number\n  /** Comparator rows without a candidate match. */\n  unpairedComparatorN: number\n  bins: GainDistributionBin[]\n  median: number | null\n  ci: { low: number; high: number } | null\n}\n\nexport interface GainDistributionOptions {\n  /** Number of histogram bins. Default 11 (so the centre is exact at 0). */\n  bins?: number\n  /** Which split to use. Default 'holdout'. */\n  split?: 'search' | 'holdout'\n  /** Confidence level for the CI. Default 0.95. */\n  confidence?: number\n  /** Bootstrap resamples. Default 2000. */\n  resamples?: number\n  /** Deterministic seed. */\n  seed?: number\n}\n\n/**\n * Held-out improvement distribution: per-pair delta (candidate −\n * comparator), histogrammed. Includes the bootstrap CI on the median\n * delta — same primitive the promotion gate uses.\n */\nexport function gainHistogram(\n  runs: RunRecord[],\n  candidateId: string,\n  comparator: string,\n  opts: GainDistributionOptions = {},\n): GainDistributionFigureSpec {\n  const split = opts.split ?? 'holdout'\n  const binCount = opts.bins ?? 11\n  if (binCount < 1) throw new Error('gainHistogram: bins must be ≥ 1')\n\n  const candidate = runs.filter((r) => r.candidateId === candidateId && r.splitTag === split)\n  const baseline = runs.filter((r) => r.candidateId === comparator && r.splitTag === split)\n  // pairScoresByKey returns before=baseline-score, after=candidate-score\n  // for each canonical work-identity pair where both sides recorded a\n  // valid score on this split. delta = after - before = candidate - baseline.\n  const { before, after, unpairedCandidateN, unpairedComparatorN } = pairScoresByKey(\n    candidate,\n    baseline,\n    split,\n  )\n  const n = before.length\n\n  if (n === 0) {\n    return {\n      kind: 'gain-distribution',\n      candidateId,\n      comparator,\n      split,\n      n: 0,\n      unpairedCandidateN,\n      unpairedComparatorN,\n      bins: [],\n      median: null,\n      ci: null,\n    }\n  }\n\n  const deltas = before.map((b, i) => after[i]! - b)\n  const sortedDeltas = [...deltas].sort((a, b) => a - b)\n  const median = medianOfSorted(sortedDeltas)\n  const min = sortedDeltas[0]!\n  const max = sortedDeltas[sortedDeltas.length - 1]!\n\n  // Symmetric bins around the wider of (|min|, |max|) so the chart\n  // visually centres on zero without dropping outliers.\n  const bound = Math.max(Math.abs(min), Math.abs(max), 1e-6)\n  const lo = -bound\n  const hi = bound\n  const width = (hi - lo) / binCount\n  const bins: GainDistributionBin[] = []\n  for (let i = 0; i < binCount; i++) {\n    bins.push({ lo: lo + i * width, hi: lo + (i + 1) * width, count: 0 })\n  }\n  for (const d of deltas) {\n    let idx = Math.floor((d - lo) / width)\n    if (idx < 0) idx = 0\n    if (idx >= binCount) idx = binCount - 1\n    bins[idx]!.count += 1\n  }\n\n  const ci = pairedBootstrap(before, after, {\n    confidence: opts.confidence ?? 0.95,\n    resamples: opts.resamples ?? 2000,\n    statistic: 'median',\n    seed: opts.seed,\n  })\n\n  return {\n    kind: 'gain-distribution',\n    candidateId,\n    comparator,\n    split,\n    n,\n    unpairedCandidateN,\n    unpairedComparatorN,\n    bins,\n    median,\n    ci: { low: ci.low, high: ci.high },\n  }\n}\n\n// ── researchReport ───────────────────────────────────────────────────\n\nexport type ResearchReportDecision =\n  | 'promote'\n  | 'hold'\n  | 'reject'\n  | 'equivalent'\n  | 'needs_more_data'\n\n/**\n * Hard floor below which a paired comparison is treated as uninformative\n * regardless of `minPairs`. Mirrors the lower limit on Wilcoxon signed-rank\n * exact tables; below this the test has no power to separate effect sizes.\n */\nexport const RESEARCH_REPORT_HARD_PAIR_FLOOR = 6\n\nexport interface ResearchReportOptions {\n  /** Human-readable report title. */\n  title?: string\n  /** Comparator candidate id. Required for statistical decision guidance. */\n  comparator?: string\n  /** Which split to use for the primary decision. Default 'holdout'. */\n  split?: 'search' | 'holdout'\n  /** Confidence level used by lower-level report helpers. Default 0.95. */\n  confidence?: number\n  /** FDR threshold for q-values. Default 0.05. */\n  fdr?: number\n  /**\n   * Soft floor on paired observations before issuing a directional\n   * promote / reject. Below this we report `needs_more_data` and surface the\n   * minimum detectable effect at the current N. Default 20 — chosen so the\n   * Wilcoxon signed-rank approximation is reasonable and so the paired\n   * bootstrap CI has non-degenerate coverage. Hard floor is enforced at\n   * `RESEARCH_REPORT_HARD_PAIR_FLOOR` (6) regardless of this value.\n   */\n  minPairs?: number\n  /**\n   * Region of Practical Equivalence on the paired delta. When a candidate's\n   * paired-delta CI is fully contained in `[low, high]`, the decision is\n   * `equivalent` rather than `hold`. Sourced from the domain owner — there is\n   * no statistically-defensible default.\n   */\n  rope?: { low: number; high: number }\n  /**\n   * Power for the minimum detectable effect (MDE) reported on each candidate.\n   * Default 0.8.\n   */\n  mdePower?: number\n  /**\n   * Two-sided alpha for the MDE. Default matches `fdr` so the reported MDE\n   * lines up with the test the report actually runs.\n   */\n  mdeAlpha?: number\n  /** Optional held-out gate decisions keyed by candidate id. */\n  gateDecisions?: Record<string, GateDecision>\n  /** Optional failure clusters from failureClusterView. */\n  failureClusters?: FailureClusterReport\n  /** Build gain histograms for these candidates. Defaults to all non-comparator candidates. */\n  candidateIds?: string[]\n  /** Deterministic bootstrap seed passed to gainHistogram and the posterior helper. */\n  seed?: number\n  /** Report timestamp. Defaults to current time. */\n  generatedAt?: string\n  /**\n   * Hash of a preregistered protocol (e.g. `signManifest({...}).contentHash`).\n   * Embedded verbatim in the report so the analysis can be cited as the\n   * preregistered one rather than a post-hoc fishing expedition.\n   */\n  preregistrationHash?: string\n}\n\nexport interface ResearchReportRecommendation {\n  decision: ResearchReportDecision\n  candidateId: string | null\n  rationale: string[]\n  risks: string[]\n  nextActions: string[]\n}\n\nexport interface ResearchReportCandidate {\n  candidateId: string\n  n: number\n  mean: number\n  ciLow: number\n  ciHigh: number\n  qValue: number | null\n  cohensD: number | null\n  meanDeltaVsComparator: number | null\n  pairedN: number\n  medianGain: number | null\n  meanGain: number | null\n  gainCi: { low: number; high: number } | null\n  /**\n   * Bayesian-bootstrap posterior summaries on the paired mean delta.\n   * Dirichlet(1, ..., 1) weights represent uncertainty over the empirical\n   * distribution of matched deltas.\n   */\n  prGreaterThanZero: number | null\n  prInRope: number | null\n  /**\n   * Minimum detectable effect (in score units) at the candidate's paired N,\n   * the configured power, and the configured alpha. Standardised by the\n   * observed paired-delta SD and inverted via `requiredSampleSize`. Reported\n   * for every candidate so a `needs_more_data` verdict is actionable.\n   */\n  mde: number | null\n  onParetoFrontier: boolean\n  gate?: ParetoPoint['gate']\n  decision: ResearchReportDecision\n  decisionReason: string\n}\n\nexport interface ResearchReportMethodology {\n  /**\n   * Plain-language assumptions the report depends on. Read these first when\n   * deciding whether the verdict is load-bearing for a launch decision.\n   */\n  assumptions: string[]\n  /** Tests and estimators the verdict was computed from. */\n  methods: string[]\n  /** Alternatives the author considered and why this report didn't take them. */\n  alternatives: string[]\n  /** Failure modes — when this report should NOT drive a decision. */\n  whenNotToApply: string[]\n  /** Citations for the methodological choices above. */\n  citations: string[]\n}\n\nexport interface ResearchReport {\n  kind: 'agent-eval-research-report'\n  title: string\n  generatedAt: string\n  split: 'search' | 'holdout'\n  comparator: string | null\n  /**\n   * SHA-256 over the canonicalised set of `(runId, candidateId, split)` triples\n   * the report was computed from, plus the comparator and split. Stable across\n   * key insertion order; recomputable by the reader to verify provenance.\n   */\n  runFingerprint: string\n  preregistrationHash: string | null\n  rope: { low: number; high: number } | null\n  executiveSummary: string[]\n  recommendation: ResearchReportRecommendation\n  candidates: ResearchReportCandidate[]\n  summary: SummaryTable\n  charts: {\n    pareto: ParetoFigureSpec\n    gains: GainDistributionFigureSpec[]\n  }\n  methodology: ResearchReportMethodology\n  failureClusters?: FailureClusterReport\n  markdown: string\n  html: string\n}\n\n/**\n * Internal: paired posterior summary on (candidate − comparator) deltas.\n *\n * Returns the bootstrap CI on the median (matching `gainHistogram`) plus\n * Bayesian-bootstrap posterior summaries Pr(Δ>0) and Pr(Δ∈ROPE) computed\n * from Dirichlet(1, ..., 1) weights on the observed paired deltas\n * (Rubin 1981), and the\n * minimum detectable paired effect at the configured power and α.\n *\n * `null` is returned when no paired observations exist; callers must\n * gate on `n` before consuming the bootstrap statistics.\n */\nfunction pairedPosterior(\n  runs: RunRecord[],\n  candidateId: string,\n  comparator: string,\n  opts: {\n    split: 'search' | 'holdout'\n    confidence: number\n    seed?: number\n    rope: { low: number; high: number } | null\n    mdePower: number\n    mdeAlpha: number\n  },\n): {\n  n: number\n  meanDelta: number\n  medianDelta: number\n  sdDelta: number\n  ci: { low: number; high: number }\n  prGreaterThanZero: number\n  prInRope: number | null\n  mde: number\n} | null {\n  const candidate = runs.filter((r) => r.candidateId === candidateId && r.splitTag === opts.split)\n  const baseline = runs.filter((r) => r.candidateId === comparator && r.splitTag === opts.split)\n  const { before, after } = pairScoresByKey(candidate, baseline, opts.split)\n  const n = before.length\n  if (n === 0) return null\n\n  const deltas = before.map((b, i) => after[i]! - b)\n  const meanDelta = deltas.reduce((s, x) => s + x, 0) / n\n  const sortedDeltas = [...deltas].sort((a, b) => a - b)\n  const medianDelta = medianOfSorted(sortedDeltas)\n  const sdDelta = stdev(deltas, meanDelta)\n\n  const ci = pairedBootstrap(before, after, {\n    confidence: opts.confidence,\n    resamples: 2000,\n    statistic: 'median',\n    seed: opts.seed,\n  })\n\n  const meanSamples = bayesianBootstrapMeanSamples(deltas, 2000, opts.seed)\n  const prGreaterThanZero =\n    meanSamples.length === 0 ? 0 : meanSamples.filter((s) => s > 0).length / meanSamples.length\n  const prInRope =\n    opts.rope === null || meanSamples.length === 0\n      ? null\n      : meanSamples.filter((s) => s >= opts.rope!.low && s <= opts.rope!.high).length /\n        meanSamples.length\n\n  const dStandardised = pairedMde({ nPaired: n, alpha: opts.mdeAlpha, power: opts.mdePower })\n  const mde = sdDelta === 0 ? 0 : dStandardised * sdDelta\n\n  return {\n    n,\n    meanDelta,\n    medianDelta,\n    sdDelta,\n    ci: { low: ci.low, high: ci.high },\n    prGreaterThanZero,\n    prInRope,\n    mde,\n  }\n}\n\nfunction bayesianBootstrapMeanSamples(\n  deltas: number[],\n  resamples: number,\n  seed?: number,\n): number[] {\n  const n = deltas.length\n  if (n === 0) return []\n  if (n === 1) return new Array<number>(resamples).fill(deltas[0]!)\n  const rng = seedRng(seed)\n  const samples = new Array<number>(resamples)\n  for (let b = 0; b < resamples; b++) {\n    let weightedSum = 0\n    let weightSum = 0\n    for (let k = 0; k < n; k++) {\n      const weight = -Math.log(Math.max(Number.MIN_VALUE, rng()))\n      weightedSum += deltas[k]! * weight\n      weightSum += weight\n    }\n    samples[b] = weightedSum / weightSum\n  }\n  return samples\n}\n\nfunction seedRng(seed?: number): () => number {\n  if (seed === undefined) return Math.random\n  let s = seed >>> 0\n  return () => {\n    s = (s + 0x6d2b79f5) >>> 0\n    let t = s\n    t = Math.imul(t ^ (t >>> 15), t | 1)\n    t ^= t + Math.imul(t ^ (t >>> 7), t | 61)\n    return ((t ^ (t >>> 14)) >>> 0) / 4294967296\n  }\n}\n\nfunction stdev(xs: number[], mean: number): number {\n  if (xs.length < 2) return 0\n  let sse = 0\n  for (const x of xs) sse += (x - mean) ** 2\n  return Math.sqrt(sse / (xs.length - 1))\n}\n\n/**\n * Executive research report for CPO / AI-lead / launch-review consumption.\n *\n * Composes:\n *   - `summaryTable`         marginal stats with BH-FDR-adjusted q-values\n *   - `paretoChart`           cost-vs-quality frontier with gate overlay\n *   - `gainHistogram`         per-candidate paired-delta distribution\n *   - paired posterior (this file): bootstrap CI on median, Bayesian-bootstrap Pr(Δ>0),\n *                              Pr(Δ∈ROPE), MDE at the configured power\n *\n * Decisions are made on paired evidence — never on marginal means alone —\n * and respect any held-out gate decision the caller passes through. The\n * report embeds a SHA-256 fingerprint of the input run set and, optionally,\n * the hash of a preregistered protocol so a downstream reader can verify\n * provenance and that the analysis was the preregistered one.\n *\n * Async because the fingerprint uses Web Crypto via `hashJson`; deterministic\n * for any fixed `runs`, `seed`, and ROPE.\n */\nexport async function researchReport(\n  runs: RunRecord[],\n  opts: ResearchReportOptions = {},\n): Promise<ResearchReport> {\n  const split = opts.split ?? 'holdout'\n  const comparator = opts.comparator ?? null\n  const confidence = opts.confidence ?? 0.95\n  const fdr = opts.fdr ?? 0.05\n  const minPairs = Math.max(opts.minPairs ?? 20, RESEARCH_REPORT_HARD_PAIR_FLOOR)\n  const rope = opts.rope ?? null\n  const mdePower = opts.mdePower ?? 0.8\n  const mdeAlpha = opts.mdeAlpha ?? fdr\n  const title = opts.title ?? 'Agent Evaluation Research Report'\n  const generatedAt = opts.generatedAt ?? new Date().toISOString()\n  const preregistrationHash = opts.preregistrationHash ?? null\n\n  if (rope && !(Number.isFinite(rope.low) && Number.isFinite(rope.high) && rope.low <= rope.high)) {\n    throw new Error(\n      `researchReport: rope must satisfy low ≤ high with finite bounds, got ${JSON.stringify(rope)}`,\n    )\n  }\n\n  const summary = summaryTable(runs, {\n    comparator: comparator ?? undefined,\n    split,\n    confidence,\n    fdr,\n  })\n  const pareto = paretoChart(runs, { split, gateDecisions: opts.gateDecisions })\n  const candidateIds =\n    opts.candidateIds ?? summary.rows.map((r) => r.candidateId).filter((id) => id !== comparator)\n  const gains = comparator\n    ? candidateIds.map((id) =>\n        gainHistogram(runs, id, comparator, {\n          split,\n          confidence,\n          seed: opts.seed,\n        }),\n      )\n    : []\n\n  const gainByCandidate = new Map(gains.map((g) => [g.candidateId, g]))\n  const paretoByCandidate = new Map(pareto.points.map((p) => [p.candidateId, p]))\n  const posteriorByCandidate = new Map<string, ReturnType<typeof pairedPosterior>>()\n  if (comparator) {\n    for (const id of candidateIds) {\n      posteriorByCandidate.set(\n        id,\n        pairedPosterior(runs, id, comparator, {\n          split,\n          confidence,\n          seed: opts.seed,\n          rope,\n          mdePower,\n          mdeAlpha,\n        }),\n      )\n    }\n  }\n\n  const candidates = summary.rows\n    .map((row) => {\n      const gain = gainByCandidate.get(row.candidateId)\n      const point = paretoByCandidate.get(row.candidateId)\n      const posterior = posteriorByCandidate.get(row.candidateId) ?? null\n      const gateDecision = opts.gateDecisions?.[row.candidateId]\n      const classified = classifyCandidate(row, {\n        comparator,\n        posterior,\n        point,\n        gateDecision,\n        split,\n        fdr,\n        minPairs,\n        rope,\n      })\n      return {\n        candidateId: row.candidateId,\n        n: row.n,\n        mean: row.mean,\n        ciLow: row.ciLow,\n        ciHigh: row.ciHigh,\n        qValue: row.qValue,\n        cohensD: row.cohensD,\n        meanDeltaVsComparator: posterior ? posterior.meanDelta : null,\n        pairedN: posterior?.n ?? gain?.n ?? 0,\n        medianGain: posterior ? posterior.medianDelta : gain ? gain.median : null,\n        meanGain: posterior ? posterior.meanDelta : null,\n        gainCi: posterior ? posterior.ci : gain ? gain.ci : null,\n        prGreaterThanZero: posterior ? posterior.prGreaterThanZero : null,\n        prInRope: posterior ? posterior.prInRope : null,\n        mde: posterior ? posterior.mde : null,\n        onParetoFrontier: point?.onFrontier ?? false,\n        gate: gateDecision ? gateLabel(gateDecision) : undefined,\n        decision: classified.decision,\n        decisionReason: classified.reason,\n      } satisfies ResearchReportCandidate\n    })\n    .sort((a, b) => {\n      const decisionRank = decisionWeight(b.decision) - decisionWeight(a.decision)\n      if (decisionRank !== 0) return decisionRank\n      return b.mean - a.mean\n    })\n\n  const recommendation = buildRecommendation(candidates, {\n    comparator,\n    failureClusters: opts.failureClusters,\n    rope,\n    minPairs,\n    preregistrationHash,\n  })\n  const executiveSummary = buildExecutiveSummary(candidates, recommendation, {\n    comparator,\n    split,\n    failureClusters: opts.failureClusters,\n    preregistrationHash,\n  })\n  const methodology = buildMethodology({\n    split,\n    comparator,\n    fdr,\n    minPairs,\n    rope,\n    confidence,\n    mdePower,\n    mdeAlpha,\n  })\n\n  const runFingerprint = await hashJson(\n    canonicalize({\n      triples: runs\n        .filter((r) => r.splitTag === split)\n        .map((r) => ({ runId: r.runId, candidateId: r.candidateId, splitTag: r.splitTag }))\n        .sort((a, b) => a.runId.localeCompare(b.runId)),\n      comparator,\n      split,\n    }),\n  )\n\n  const markdown = renderResearchMarkdown({\n    title,\n    generatedAt,\n    split,\n    comparator,\n    rope,\n    runFingerprint,\n    preregistrationHash,\n    executiveSummary,\n    recommendation,\n    candidates,\n    summary,\n    pareto,\n    gains,\n    methodology,\n    failureClusters: opts.failureClusters,\n  })\n  const html = renderResearchHtml(markdown, title)\n\n  return {\n    kind: 'agent-eval-research-report',\n    title,\n    generatedAt,\n    split,\n    comparator,\n    runFingerprint,\n    preregistrationHash,\n    rope,\n    executiveSummary,\n    recommendation,\n    candidates,\n    summary,\n    charts: { pareto, gains },\n    methodology,\n    failureClusters: opts.failureClusters,\n    markdown,\n    html,\n  }\n}\n\nfunction buildMethodology(ctx: {\n  split: 'search' | 'holdout'\n  comparator: string | null\n  fdr: number\n  minPairs: number\n  rope: { low: number; high: number } | null\n  confidence: number\n  mdePower: number\n  mdeAlpha: number\n}): ResearchReportMethodology {\n  const assumptions: string[] = [\n    'Pairs are matched by (experimentId, scenarioId, seed); input order does not affect the comparison.',\n    'Paired deltas are exchangeable conditional on the matched scenario — no mid-run distribution shift.',\n    `Decisions are pre-specified at fdr=${ctx.fdr}, minPairs=${ctx.minPairs}, confidence=${ctx.confidence}; deviating from these post-hoc invalidates the false-discovery control.`,\n  ]\n  if (ctx.rope) {\n    assumptions.push(\n      `The Region of Practical Equivalence ${formatRope(ctx.rope)} is supplied by the domain owner; equivalent verdicts are only meaningful if that range is treated as the standing definition of \"no material difference.\"`,\n    )\n  }\n  if (ctx.comparator === null) {\n    assumptions.push('No comparator was configured; this run is descriptive, not causal.')\n  }\n  const methods: string[] = [\n    \"Marginal scores summarised with BH-FDR-adjusted Wilcoxon signed-rank q-values and paired Cohen's dz via summaryTable.\",\n    'Paired evidence summarised with a frequentist bootstrap CI on the median delta and a Dirichlet-weight Bayesian bootstrap for Pr(Δ>0) and Pr(Δ∈ROPE) on the mean delta.',\n    `Minimum detectable effect reported per candidate at α=${ctx.mdeAlpha} (two-sided), power=${ctx.mdePower}, standardised by the observed paired-delta SD.`,\n    'Pareto frontier flagged as a separate axis (cost vs quality); a candidate can be on-frontier without winning the paired test.',\n    'Held-out gate decisions, when supplied, override the statistical verdict in the reject direction.',\n  ]\n  const alternatives: string[] = [\n    'Paired t-test rejected: not robust to the heavy-tailed score distributions common in agent benchmarks.',\n    'Unpaired Mann–Whitney rejected: matched scenarios make pairing free; unpaired throws away that variance reduction.',\n    'Sequential / always-valid inference (e-values, mSPRT) is the right tool for iterative sweeps and is out of scope for this single-look report — preregister and run once, or wrap this report in an alpha-spending schedule.',\n    'Hierarchical Bayesian shrinkage across many candidates is future work; the current ranking uses raw paired statistics.',\n  ]\n  const whenNotToApply: string[] = [\n    `Paired N below ${RESEARCH_REPORT_HARD_PAIR_FLOOR} on any candidate — the bootstrap CI is degenerate.`,\n    'Comparator chosen post-hoc by inspecting the same data; q-values are no longer false-discovery-controlled.',\n    'Scenarios not drawn under a stable preregistered protocol; the report can describe the data but cannot anchor a launch decision.',\n    'Score distributions with mid-run shift (judge model swap, rubric change, infra outage) — pair exchangeability is violated.',\n  ]\n  const citations: string[] = [\n    'Benjamini, Y. & Hochberg, Y. (1995). Controlling the false discovery rate: a practical and powerful approach to multiple testing. JRSS B, 57(1), 289–300.',\n    'Wilcoxon, F. (1945). Individual comparisons by ranking methods. Biometrics Bulletin, 1(6), 80–83.',\n    'Efron, B. (1979). Bootstrap methods: another look at the jackknife. Annals of Statistics, 7(1), 1–26.',\n    'Rubin, D. B. (1981). The Bayesian bootstrap. Annals of Statistics, 9(1), 130–134.',\n    'Kruschke, J. K. (2018). Rejecting or accepting parameter values in Bayesian estimation. Advances in Methods and Practices in Psychological Science, 1(2), 270–280. (ROPE.)',\n  ]\n  return { assumptions, methods, alternatives, whenNotToApply, citations }\n}\n\nfunction formatRope(rope: { low: number; high: number }): string {\n  return `[${fmt(rope.low)}, ${fmt(rope.high)}]`\n}\n\nfunction classifyCandidate(\n  row: SummaryTableRow,\n  ctx: {\n    comparator: string | null\n    posterior: ReturnType<typeof pairedPosterior> | null\n    point?: ParetoPoint\n    gateDecision?: GateDecision\n    split: 'search' | 'holdout'\n    fdr: number\n    minPairs: number\n    rope: { low: number; high: number } | null\n  },\n): { decision: ResearchReportDecision; reason: string } {\n  if (ctx.comparator && row.candidateId === ctx.comparator) {\n    return { decision: 'hold', reason: 'Comparator baseline.' }\n  }\n  if (ctx.gateDecision && !ctx.gateDecision.promote) {\n    const code = ctx.gateDecision.rejectionCode ?? 'rejected'\n    return {\n      decision: 'reject',\n      reason: `Held-out gate returned ${code}: ${ctx.gateDecision.reason}`,\n    }\n  }\n  if (!ctx.comparator) {\n    return {\n      decision: ctx.point?.onFrontier ? 'hold' : 'needs_more_data',\n      reason:\n        'No comparator configured; report ranks candidates but cannot anchor a promotion call.',\n    }\n  }\n  if (!ctx.posterior || ctx.posterior.n < RESEARCH_REPORT_HARD_PAIR_FLOOR) {\n    return {\n      decision: 'needs_more_data',\n      reason: `Only ${ctx.posterior?.n ?? 0} paired observations; below hard floor of ${RESEARCH_REPORT_HARD_PAIR_FLOOR} for any paired inference.`,\n    }\n  }\n  const ci = ctx.posterior.ci\n  if (ctx.split === 'search') {\n    return {\n      decision: 'hold',\n      reason:\n        'Search-split evidence is descriptive; release decisions require matched holdout runs.',\n    }\n  }\n  if (ctx.rope && ci.low >= ctx.rope.low && ci.high <= ctx.rope.high) {\n    return {\n      decision: 'equivalent',\n      reason: `Paired-delta CI [${fmt(ci.low)}, ${fmt(ci.high)}] is fully inside ROPE ${formatRope(ctx.rope)}; candidate is practically equivalent to comparator.`,\n    }\n  }\n  const gainPositive = ci.low > 0\n  const gainNegative = ci.high < 0\n  if (gainNegative) {\n    return {\n      decision: 'reject',\n      reason: `Paired-delta CI [${fmt(ci.low)}, ${fmt(ci.high)}] lies entirely below zero.`,\n    }\n  }\n  if (ctx.posterior.n < ctx.minPairs) {\n    return {\n      decision: 'needs_more_data',\n      reason: `Only ${ctx.posterior.n} paired observations; minimum detectable effect at this N is ${fmt(ctx.posterior.mde)} score units (need ≥ ${ctx.minPairs} pairs to issue a directional verdict).`,\n    }\n  }\n  if (row.qValue !== null && row.qValue <= ctx.fdr && gainPositive) {\n    return {\n      decision: 'promote',\n      reason: `BH-adjusted q=${fmt(row.qValue)} ≤ ${ctx.fdr} and paired-delta CI [${fmt(ci.low)}, ${fmt(ci.high)}] excludes zero; Pr(Δ>0)=${fmt(ctx.posterior.prGreaterThanZero)}.`,\n    }\n  }\n  return {\n    decision: 'hold',\n    reason: `Pr(Δ>0)=${fmt(ctx.posterior.prGreaterThanZero)} but CI [${fmt(ci.low)}, ${fmt(ci.high)}] crosses zero; effect not decisive at fdr=${ctx.fdr}.`,\n  }\n}\n\nfunction buildRecommendation(\n  candidates: ResearchReportCandidate[],\n  ctx: {\n    comparator: string | null\n    failureClusters?: FailureClusterReport\n    rope: { low: number; high: number } | null\n    minPairs: number\n    preregistrationHash: string | null\n  },\n): ResearchReportRecommendation {\n  const nonComparator = candidates.filter((c) => c.candidateId !== ctx.comparator)\n  const bestPromote = nonComparator.find((c) => c.decision === 'promote')\n  const bestEquivalent = nonComparator.find((c) => c.decision === 'equivalent')\n  const chosen = bestPromote ?? bestEquivalent ?? nonComparator[0] ?? null\n  const decision: ResearchReportDecision = bestPromote\n    ? 'promote'\n    : nonComparator.some((c) => c.decision === 'needs_more_data')\n      ? 'needs_more_data'\n      : bestEquivalent\n        ? 'equivalent'\n        : nonComparator.some((c) => c.decision === 'hold')\n          ? 'hold'\n          : 'reject'\n\n  const rationale: string[] = []\n  const risks: string[] = []\n  const nextActions: string[] = []\n\n  if (chosen) {\n    rationale.push(`${chosen.candidateId}: ${chosen.decisionReason}`)\n    if (chosen.gainCi) {\n      const probSummary =\n        chosen.prGreaterThanZero !== null ? `, Pr(Δ>0)=${fmt(chosen.prGreaterThanZero)}` : ''\n      rationale.push(\n        `Median paired gain CI: [${fmt(chosen.gainCi.low)}, ${fmt(chosen.gainCi.high)}]${probSummary}.`,\n      )\n    }\n    if (chosen.mde !== null && Number.isFinite(chosen.mde)) {\n      rationale.push(`MDE at current paired N=${chosen.pairedN}: ${fmt(chosen.mde)} score units.`)\n    }\n  }\n  if (!ctx.comparator) {\n    risks.push('No comparator was configured; verdict is descriptive, not causal.')\n    nextActions.push('Re-run with a stable comparator candidate for paired inference.')\n  }\n  if (!ctx.preregistrationHash) {\n    risks.push(\n      'No preregistration hash supplied; readers cannot verify the analysis was specified before data inspection.',\n    )\n    nextActions.push(\n      'Sign a HypothesisManifest before the next sweep and pass `preregistrationHash` so the report cites it.',\n    )\n  }\n  if (ctx.rope === null && nonComparator.length > 0) {\n    risks.push(\n      'No ROPE configured; the report cannot distinguish \"equivalent\" from \"inconclusive\".',\n    )\n    nextActions.push(\n      'Define a domain-specific Region of Practical Equivalence and pass it to lock in the equivalence threshold.',\n    )\n  }\n  const inconclusive = nonComparator.filter((c) => c.decision === 'needs_more_data')\n  if (inconclusive.length > 0) {\n    const worst = inconclusive.reduce((a, b) => (b.pairedN < a.pairedN ? b : a))\n    risks.push(\n      `${inconclusive.length} candidate(s) below soft floor (${ctx.minPairs} pairs); thinnest is ${worst.candidateId} with ${worst.pairedN}.`,\n    )\n    nextActions.push(\n      `Collect at least ${ctx.minPairs - worst.pairedN} more matched holdout runs for ${worst.candidateId}.`,\n    )\n  }\n  const rejected = nonComparator.filter((c) => c.decision === 'reject')\n  if (rejected.length > 0) {\n    risks.push(\n      `${rejected.length} candidate(s) failed the paired test or held-out gate; do not ship those variants.`,\n    )\n  }\n  if (ctx.failureClusters && ctx.failureClusters.clusters.length > 0) {\n    const top = ctx.failureClusters.clusters[0]!\n    risks.push(`Top failure cluster: ${top.failureClass} across ${top.runCount} run(s).`)\n    nextActions.push('Prioritize the largest failure cluster before broad rollout.')\n  }\n  if (decision === 'promote') {\n    nextActions.push('Ship behind the existing promotion gate and monitor canaries.')\n  } else if (decision === 'hold') {\n    nextActions.push('Keep current production candidate while expanding holdout evidence.')\n  } else if (decision === 'equivalent') {\n    nextActions.push(\n      'Either keep the comparator (no quality regression) or promote on cost/latency grounds — equivalence does not justify either; the choice is a product decision, not a stats one.',\n    )\n  } else if (decision === 'reject') {\n    nextActions.push(\n      'Do not promote this sweep; inspect failures and generate a revised candidate.',\n    )\n  }\n\n  return {\n    decision,\n    candidateId: chosen?.candidateId ?? null,\n    rationale,\n    risks,\n    nextActions,\n  }\n}\n\nfunction buildExecutiveSummary(\n  candidates: ResearchReportCandidate[],\n  recommendation: ResearchReportRecommendation,\n  ctx: {\n    comparator: string | null\n    split: 'search' | 'holdout'\n    failureClusters?: FailureClusterReport\n    preregistrationHash: string | null\n  },\n): string[] {\n  const lines: string[] = []\n  const nonComparator = candidates.filter((c) => c.candidateId !== ctx.comparator)\n  lines.push(\n    `Evaluated ${nonComparator.length} candidate(s) on the ${ctx.split} split${ctx.comparator ? ` against ${ctx.comparator}` : ''}.`,\n  )\n  lines.push(\n    `Recommendation: ${recommendation.decision}${recommendation.candidateId ? ` ${recommendation.candidateId}` : ''}.`,\n  )\n  const promoted = nonComparator.filter((c) => c.decision === 'promote').length\n  const held = nonComparator.filter((c) => c.decision === 'hold').length\n  const equivalent = nonComparator.filter((c) => c.decision === 'equivalent').length\n  const rejected = nonComparator.filter((c) => c.decision === 'reject').length\n  const more = nonComparator.filter((c) => c.decision === 'needs_more_data').length\n  lines.push(\n    `Decision mix: ${promoted} promote, ${equivalent} equivalent, ${held} hold, ${rejected} reject, ${more} need more data.`,\n  )\n  const frontier = nonComparator.filter((c) => c.onParetoFrontier).map((c) => c.candidateId)\n  if (frontier.length > 0) lines.push(`Pareto-frontier candidates: ${frontier.join(', ')}.`)\n  if (ctx.failureClusters) {\n    lines.push(\n      `Failure clustering found ${ctx.failureClusters.totalFailures}/${ctx.failureClusters.totalRuns} failed runs across ${ctx.failureClusters.clusters.length} reportable cluster(s).`,\n    )\n  }\n  lines.push(\n    ctx.preregistrationHash\n      ? `Preregistered analysis: ${ctx.preregistrationHash.slice(0, 12)}…`\n      : 'Analysis is post-hoc — no preregistration hash supplied.',\n  )\n  return lines\n}\n\nfunction renderResearchMarkdown(report: {\n  title: string\n  generatedAt: string\n  split: 'search' | 'holdout'\n  comparator: string | null\n  executiveSummary: string[]\n  recommendation: ResearchReportRecommendation\n  candidates: ResearchReportCandidate[]\n  summary: SummaryTable\n  pareto: ParetoFigureSpec\n  gains: GainDistributionFigureSpec[]\n  rope: { low: number; high: number } | null\n  runFingerprint: string\n  preregistrationHash: string | null\n  methodology: ResearchReportMethodology\n  failureClusters?: FailureClusterReport\n}): string {\n  const lines: string[] = []\n  lines.push(`# ${report.title}`)\n  lines.push('')\n  lines.push(`**Generated:** ${report.generatedAt}`)\n  lines.push(`**Primary split:** ${report.split}`)\n  lines.push(`**Comparator:** ${report.comparator ?? 'not configured'}`)\n  lines.push(`**ROPE:** ${report.rope ? formatRope(report.rope) : 'not configured'}`)\n  lines.push(`**Run fingerprint:** \\`${report.runFingerprint}\\``)\n  lines.push(\n    `**Preregistration:** ${report.preregistrationHash ? `\\`${report.preregistrationHash}\\`` : 'none'}`,\n  )\n  lines.push('')\n  lines.push('## Executive Summary')\n  lines.push('')\n  for (const item of report.executiveSummary) lines.push(`- ${item}`)\n  lines.push('')\n  lines.push('## Recommendation')\n  lines.push('')\n  lines.push(`**Decision:** ${report.recommendation.decision}`)\n  lines.push(`**Candidate:** ${report.recommendation.candidateId ?? 'N/A'}`)\n  lines.push('')\n  lines.push('### Rationale')\n  lines.push('')\n  for (const item of report.recommendation.rationale) lines.push(`- ${item}`)\n  lines.push('')\n  lines.push('### Risks')\n  lines.push('')\n  for (const item of report.recommendation.risks.length\n    ? report.recommendation.risks\n    : ['No material report-level risks detected.']) {\n    lines.push(`- ${item}`)\n  }\n  lines.push('')\n  lines.push('### Next Actions')\n  lines.push('')\n  for (const item of report.recommendation.nextActions) lines.push(`- ${item}`)\n  lines.push('')\n  lines.push('## Candidate Decision Table')\n  lines.push('')\n  lines.push(\n    '| Candidate | Decision | Mean | Δ̄ | Pr(Δ>0) | q | dz | Paired N | Median Gain CI | MDE | Pareto | Gate |',\n  )\n  lines.push('|---|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---|---:|---|---|')\n  for (const c of report.candidates) {\n    const delta = c.meanDeltaVsComparator === null ? 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'-'} |`,\n    )\n  }\n  lines.push('')\n  lines.push('## Statistical Summary')\n  lines.push('')\n  lines.push(report.summary.markdown)\n  lines.push('')\n  lines.push('## Methodology')\n  lines.push('')\n  lines.push('### Assumptions')\n  lines.push('')\n  for (const item of report.methodology.assumptions) lines.push(`- ${item}`)\n  lines.push('')\n  lines.push('### Methods')\n  lines.push('')\n  for (const item of report.methodology.methods) lines.push(`- ${item}`)\n  lines.push('')\n  lines.push('### Alternatives Considered')\n  lines.push('')\n  for (const item of report.methodology.alternatives) lines.push(`- ${item}`)\n  lines.push('')\n  lines.push('### When NOT To Apply')\n  lines.push('')\n  for (const item of report.methodology.whenNotToApply) lines.push(`- ${item}`)\n  lines.push('')\n  lines.push('### Citations')\n  lines.push('')\n  for (const item of report.methodology.citations) lines.push(`- ${item}`)\n  lines.push('')\n  lines.push('## Chart Specs')\n  lines.push('')\n  lines.push(\n    'The report carries JSON chart specs for Pareto cost/quality and paired gain histograms.',\n  )\n  lines.push('')\n  lines.push('```json')\n  lines.push(JSON.stringify({ pareto: report.pareto, gains: report.gains }, null, 2))\n  lines.push('```')\n  if (report.failureClusters) {\n    lines.push('')\n    lines.push('## Failure Clusters')\n    lines.push('')\n    lines.push('| Failure Class | Runs | Scenarios | Tool | Example |')\n    lines.push('|---|---:|---:|---|---|')\n    for (const c of report.failureClusters.clusters.slice(0, 10)) {\n      lines.push(\n        `| ${c.failureClass} | ${c.runCount} | ${c.scenarioIds.length} | ${c.toolName ?? 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package/dist/{chunk-S5YLIBFX.js → chunk-TQ7LNKZ3.js}

@@ -1,7 +1,7 @@
 import {
   pearsonR,
   spearmanR
-} from "./chunk-MHELPNRP.js";
+} from "./chunk-ZHTZ4EYI.js";
 
 // src/meta-eval/rubric-predictive-validity.ts
 async function rubricPredictiveValidity(input) {
@@ -133,4 +133,4 @@ function makeRng(seed) {
 export {
   rubricPredictiveValidity
 };
-//# sourceMappingURL=chunk-S5YLIBFX.js.map
+//# sourceMappingURL=chunk-TQ7LNKZ3.js.map