@tangle-network/agent-eval 0.126.7 → 0.128.0

package/dist/{chunk-MAX3TN3C.js → chunk-UWZZKKU7.js}

@@ -1,6 +1,5 @@
 // src/rollout/schema.ts
 var ROLLOUT_SCHEMA = "tangle.rollout.v1";
-var ROLLOUT_FORMAT = ROLLOUT_SCHEMA;
 var ROLLOUT_ROLES = [
   "agent",
   "supervisor",
@@ -9,14 +8,8 @@ var ROLLOUT_ROLES = [
   "judge",
   "analyst"
 ];
-var ROLLOUT_SPLITS = [
-  "search",
-  "dev",
-  "holdout",
-  "canary",
-  "train"
-];
-var TRAINABLE_SPLITS = ["search", "train"];
+var ROLLOUT_SPLITS = ["search", "dev", "holdout", "canary"];
+var TRAINABLE_SPLITS = ["search"];
 function isTrainableSplit(split) {
   return TRAINABLE_SPLITS.includes(split);
 }
@@ -81,12 +74,8 @@ function validateRolloutLine(value) {
     errors.push("parent_rollout_id: expected string|null");
   if (typeof value.run_id !== "string" || value.run_id.length === 0)
     errors.push("run_id: expected non-empty string");
-  if (value.experiment_id !== void 0 && !isStringOrNull(value.experiment_id)) {
-    errors.push("experiment_id: expected string|null when present");
-  }
-  if (value.candidate_id !== void 0 && !isStringOrNull(value.candidate_id)) {
-    errors.push("candidate_id: expected string|null when present");
-  }
+  if (!isStringOrNull(value.experiment_id)) errors.push("experiment_id: expected string|null");
+  if (!isStringOrNull(value.candidate_id)) errors.push("candidate_id: expected string|null");
   if (!isIntegerOrNull(value.generation)) errors.push("generation: expected integer|null");
   if (!isIntegerOrNull(value.candidate_index)) errors.push("candidate_index: expected integer|null");
   if (!ROLLOUT_ROLES.includes(value.role))
@@ -167,8 +156,8 @@ function validateRolloutLine(value) {
   );
   if (isRecord(value.outcome)) {
     if (!("verdict" in value.outcome)) errors.push("outcome.verdict: field required (may be null)");
-    if (value.outcome.realness_gated !== void 0 && typeof value.outcome.realness_gated !== "boolean") {
-      errors.push("outcome.realness_gated: expected boolean when present");
+    if (typeof value.outcome.realness_gated !== "boolean") {
+      errors.push("outcome.realness_gated: expected boolean");
     }
   }
   validateSection(
@@ -235,7 +224,6 @@ function isRolloutLine(value) {
 
 export {
   ROLLOUT_SCHEMA,
-  ROLLOUT_FORMAT,
   ROLLOUT_ROLES,
   ROLLOUT_SPLITS,
   TRAINABLE_SPLITS,
@@ -246,4 +234,4 @@ export {
   assertRolloutLine,
   isRolloutLine
 };
-//# sourceMappingURL=chunk-MAX3TN3C.js.map
+//# sourceMappingURL=chunk-UWZZKKU7.js.map

package/dist/chunk-UWZZKKU7.js.map

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+{"version":3,"sources":["../src/rollout/schema.ts"],"sourcesContent":["/**\n * `tangle.rollout.v1` — THE canonical rollout serialization, owned by\n * agent-eval. One JSONL line per agent invocation (a solo eval run, a\n * supervisor episode, a worker session, a proposer shot, a judge call, an\n * analyst pass), labeled with its task/split coordinates and a single\n * scalar reward, carrying the FULL message transcript inline.\n *\n * This schema is the reconciliation of two prior producers:\n *   - agent-eval's RunRecord-joined rollout rows (PR #410): identity,\n *     provenance hashes, the realness gate travelling into the reward,\n *     trace-derived steps.\n *   - the bench rollout-ledger (agent-runtime PR #591): the wire shape —\n *     role, task.split/rep, parent_rollout_id, policy provenance, capture\n *     provenance, inline canonical chat-with-tools messages.\n * Where the two conflicted, RunRecord-derived semantics won; the wire\n * field names follow the ledger (snake_case). See `docs/rollout.md` for\n * the field-by-field decision table.\n *\n * Messages are inlined — never referenced — because every harness store a\n * rollout can be recovered from is mutable or garbage-collected. A line\n * must stay a complete training/eval example on its own.\n *\n * `outcome.reward` is THE single scalar (null = no verdict exists — a\n * labeled gap, never 0). `outcome.realness_gated` is the anti-Goodhart\n * flag: a gated line must never export as a positive training example.\n */\n\nexport const ROLLOUT_SCHEMA = 'tangle.rollout.v1'\n\n/** `agent` = a solo evaluation run (no multi-agent topology). */\nexport type RolloutRole = 'agent' | 'supervisor' | 'worker' | 'proposer' | 'judge' | 'analyst'\nexport const ROLLOUT_ROLES: readonly RolloutRole[] = [\n  'agent',\n  'supervisor',\n  'worker',\n  'proposer',\n  'judge',\n  'analyst',\n]\n\n/** Split vocabulary follows `RunRecord.splitTag`, extended with `canary`. */\nexport type RolloutSplit = 'search' | 'dev' | 'holdout' | 'canary'\nexport const ROLLOUT_SPLITS: readonly RolloutSplit[] = ['search', 'dev', 'holdout', 'canary']\n/** Splits that may ship in training exports. Everything else is fail-closed excluded. */\nexport const TRAINABLE_SPLITS: readonly RolloutSplit[] = ['search']\n\nexport function isTrainableSplit(split: RolloutSplit): boolean {\n  return TRAINABLE_SPLITS.includes(split)\n}\n\n/** 'mint' = joined live from RunRecord + trace by `mintRolloutRows`. */\nexport type RolloutCapture = 'mint' | 'settle-time' | 'backfill'\nexport const ROLLOUT_CAPTURES: readonly RolloutCapture[] = ['mint', 'settle-time', 'backfill']\n\n// ---------------------------------------------------------------------------\n// Canonical message format — OpenAI chat-with-tools, full fidelity.\n// ---------------------------------------------------------------------------\n\nexport type ChatRole = 'system' | 'user' | 'assistant' | 'tool'\nexport const CHAT_ROLES: readonly ChatRole[] = ['system', 'user', 'assistant', 'tool']\n\nexport interface ChatToolCall {\n  id: string\n  type: 'function'\n  function: {\n    name: string\n    /** JSON-encoded argument object, exactly as the model emitted it. */\n    arguments: string\n  }\n}\n\nexport interface ChatMessage {\n  role: ChatRole\n  content: string | null\n  /** Reasoning/thinking channel where the harness captured it (full fidelity). */\n  reasoning_content?: string\n  tool_calls?: ChatToolCall[]\n  /** Required on role:\"tool\" — the ChatToolCall this result answers. */\n  tool_call_id?: string\n  name?: string\n}\n\nexport interface ToolDef {\n  type: 'function'\n  function: {\n    name: string\n    description?: string\n    parameters?: Record<string, unknown>\n  }\n}\n\n/**\n * Compact trace-span projection (llm/tool step) carried alongside the\n * conversation when the line was minted from a trace. Optional: lines\n * recovered from harness stores have no span structure.\n */\nexport interface RolloutStep {\n  kind: string\n  name: string\n  /** llm: last-message summary · tool: stringified args. Scrubbed. */\n  input?: string\n  /** llm: output text · tool: stringified result. Scrubbed. */\n  output?: string\n  status?: 'ok' | 'error'\n  durationMs?: number\n}\n\n// ---------------------------------------------------------------------------\n// Ledger line sections.\n// ---------------------------------------------------------------------------\n\nexport interface RolloutTask {\n  /** Benchmark/suite id (e.g. \"swe-bench-verified\") or the experiment id. */\n  suite: string\n  instance_id: string\n  split: RolloutSplit\n  /** Sampling seed the campaign pinned; null = not recorded. */\n  seed: number | null\n  /** Replicate index (0-based). */\n  rep: number\n}\n\nexport interface RolloutPolicy {\n  /** Harness that drove the invocation (e.g. \"opencode\", \"claude\", \"pi-loops\"). */\n  harness: string | null\n  harness_version: string | null\n  model: string | null\n  provider: string | null\n  /** Commit of the agent profile / candidate under evaluation. */\n  profile_commit: string | null\n  /** sha256 of the effective prompt (post-steering), when recorded. */\n  prompt_hash?: string | null\n  /** sha256 of the effective run config, when recorded. */\n  config_hash?: string | null\n  /** Canonical agent-profile cell identity, when the run carries one. */\n  agent_profile_cell_id?: string | null\n  /** Sampling params (temperature, top_p, max_tokens…); null = not recorded. */\n  sampling: Record<string, unknown> | null\n}\n\nexport interface RolloutOutcome {\n  /**\n   * THE single scalar training signal — the official verdict.\n   * null = no verdict exists for this invocation (a labeled gap, never 0).\n   */\n  reward: number | null\n  /** Where the reward came from (judge id; \"/inherited\" = parent episode's). */\n  reward_source: string | null\n  /** Raw judge verdict record, verbatim. */\n  verdict: unknown\n  /** Everything that is NOT the scalar reward. */\n  metrics: Record<string, unknown>\n  is_completed: boolean\n  is_truncated: boolean\n  error: string | null\n  /**\n   * Anti-Goodhart flag from `RunRecord.outcome.realness.gated`: the run\n   * faked its success signal. Reward is forced to 0 at mint time and the\n   * line never qualifies for SFT.\n   */\n  realness_gated: boolean\n}\n\nexport interface RolloutCostBlock {\n  usd: number | null\n  tokens_in: number | null\n  tokens_out: number | null\n  tokens_reasoning: number | null\n  cache_read: number | null\n  cache_write: number | null\n  wall_s: number | null\n}\n\nexport interface RolloutArtifacts {\n  patch_path: string | null\n  run_dir: string | null\n  /** Source-of-truth transcript pointer (session id / jsonl path) for audit. */\n  transcript_ref: string | null\n}\n\nexport interface RolloutProvenance {\n  captured_at: string\n  capture: RolloutCapture\n  /** Present on gap lines: why `messages` could not be recovered. */\n  gap?: string\n}\n\nexport interface RolloutLine {\n  schema: typeof ROLLOUT_SCHEMA\n  rollout_id: string\n  /** Spawning invocation within the same episode (worker → supervisor). */\n  parent_rollout_id: string | null\n  run_id: string\n  /** Logical experiment grouping from `RunRecord.experimentId`; null = not recorded. */\n  experiment_id: string | null\n  /** Stable candidate identity from `RunRecord.candidateId`; null = not recorded. */\n  candidate_id: string | null\n  /** Improvement-loop generation (-1 = baseline); null = not an improvement loop. */\n  generation: number | null\n  /** Improvement-loop candidate index (-1 = baseline); null = not an improvement loop. */\n  candidate_index: number | null\n  role: RolloutRole\n  task: RolloutTask\n  policy: RolloutPolicy\n  /** Full transcript, inline. [] = gap line (see provenance.gap). */\n  messages: ChatMessage[]\n  tool_defs: ToolDef[]\n  /** Trace-span projections, when minted from a trace. */\n  steps?: RolloutStep[]\n  outcome: RolloutOutcome\n  cost: RolloutCostBlock\n  artifacts: RolloutArtifacts\n  provenance: RolloutProvenance\n}\n\n// ---------------------------------------------------------------------------\n// Validation — pure TS, no runtime schema dependency, mirroring the\n// run-record validator's fail-loud discipline. Returns [] when the value\n// is a valid RolloutLine; otherwise one dotted-path error per defect.\n// ---------------------------------------------------------------------------\n\nconst isRecord = (v: unknown): v is Record<string, unknown> =>\n  typeof v === 'object' && v !== null && !Array.isArray(v)\n\nconst isNumberOrNull = (v: unknown): boolean => v === null || typeof v === 'number'\nconst isStringOrNull = (v: unknown): boolean => v === null || typeof v === 'string'\nconst isIntegerOrNull = (v: unknown): boolean => v === null || Number.isInteger(v)\n\nfunction validateChatMessage(value: unknown, path: string, errors: string[]): void {\n  if (!isRecord(value)) {\n    errors.push(`${path}: not an object`)\n    return\n  }\n  if (!CHAT_ROLES.includes(value.role as ChatRole))\n    errors.push(`${path}.role: invalid role ${String(value.role)}`)\n  if (!isStringOrNull(value.content)) errors.push(`${path}.content: must be string|null`)\n  if (value.reasoning_content !== undefined && typeof value.reasoning_content !== 'string') {\n    errors.push(`${path}.reasoning_content: must be string when present`)\n  }\n  if (value.tool_call_id !== undefined && typeof value.tool_call_id !== 'string') {\n    errors.push(`${path}.tool_call_id: must be string when present`)\n  }\n  if (value.role === 'tool' && typeof value.tool_call_id !== 'string') {\n    errors.push(`${path}.tool_call_id: required on role:\"tool\"`)\n  }\n  if (value.tool_calls !== undefined) {\n    if (!Array.isArray(value.tool_calls)) {\n      errors.push(`${path}.tool_calls: must be an array when present`)\n    } else {\n      value.tool_calls.forEach((call, i) => {\n        if (!isRecord(call) || typeof call.id !== 'string' || call.type !== 'function') {\n          errors.push(`${path}.tool_calls[${i}]: must be {id, type:\"function\", function}`)\n          return\n        }\n        const fn = call.function\n        if (!isRecord(fn) || typeof fn.name !== 'string' || typeof fn.arguments !== 'string') {\n          errors.push(\n            `${path}.tool_calls[${i}].function: must be {name: string, arguments: string}`,\n          )\n        }\n      })\n    }\n  }\n}\n\nfunction validateSection(\n  value: unknown,\n  path: string,\n  fields: Array<[name: string, check: (v: unknown) => boolean, expect: string]>,\n  errors: string[],\n): void {\n  if (!isRecord(value)) {\n    errors.push(`${path}: not an object`)\n    return\n  }\n  for (const [name, check, expect] of fields) {\n    if (!check(value[name])) errors.push(`${path}.${name}: expected ${expect}`)\n  }\n}\n\nexport function validateRolloutLine(value: unknown): string[] {\n  const errors: string[] = []\n  if (!isRecord(value)) return ['line: not an object']\n\n  if (value.schema !== ROLLOUT_SCHEMA) errors.push(`schema: expected \"${ROLLOUT_SCHEMA}\"`)\n  if (typeof value.rollout_id !== 'string' || value.rollout_id.length === 0)\n    errors.push('rollout_id: expected non-empty string')\n  if (!isStringOrNull(value.parent_rollout_id))\n    errors.push('parent_rollout_id: expected string|null')\n  if (typeof value.run_id !== 'string' || value.run_id.length === 0)\n    errors.push('run_id: expected non-empty string')\n  if (!isStringOrNull(value.experiment_id)) errors.push('experiment_id: expected string|null')\n  if (!isStringOrNull(value.candidate_id)) errors.push('candidate_id: expected string|null')\n  if (!isIntegerOrNull(value.generation)) errors.push('generation: expected integer|null')\n  if (!isIntegerOrNull(value.candidate_index)) errors.push('candidate_index: expected integer|null')\n  if (!ROLLOUT_ROLES.includes(value.role as RolloutRole))\n    errors.push(`role: invalid role ${String(value.role)}`)\n\n  validateSection(\n    value.task,\n    'task',\n    [\n      ['suite', (v) => typeof v === 'string' && v.length > 0, 'non-empty string'],\n      ['instance_id', (v) => typeof v === 'string' && v.length > 0, 'non-empty string'],\n      [\n        'split',\n        (v) => ROLLOUT_SPLITS.includes(v as RolloutSplit),\n        `one of ${ROLLOUT_SPLITS.join('|')}`,\n      ],\n      ['seed', isNumberOrNull, 'number|null'],\n      ['rep', (v) => Number.isInteger(v), 'integer'],\n    ],\n    errors,\n  )\n\n  validateSection(\n    value.policy,\n    'policy',\n    [\n      ['harness', isStringOrNull, 'string|null'],\n      ['harness_version', isStringOrNull, 'string|null'],\n      ['model', isStringOrNull, 'string|null'],\n      ['provider', isStringOrNull, 'string|null'],\n      ['profile_commit', isStringOrNull, 'string|null'],\n      ['sampling', (v) => v === null || isRecord(v), 'object|null'],\n    ],\n    errors,\n  )\n  if (isRecord(value.policy)) {\n    for (const key of ['prompt_hash', 'config_hash', 'agent_profile_cell_id'] as const) {\n      if (value.policy[key] !== undefined && !isStringOrNull(value.policy[key])) {\n        errors.push(`policy.${key}: expected string|null when present`)\n      }\n    }\n  }\n\n  if (!Array.isArray(value.messages)) {\n    errors.push('messages: expected array')\n  } else {\n    for (const [i, m] of value.messages.entries()) validateChatMessage(m, `messages[${i}]`, errors)\n  }\n\n  if (!Array.isArray(value.tool_defs)) {\n    errors.push('tool_defs: expected array')\n  } else {\n    value.tool_defs.forEach((d, i) => {\n      if (\n        !isRecord(d) ||\n        d.type !== 'function' ||\n        !isRecord(d.function) ||\n        typeof d.function.name !== 'string'\n      ) {\n        errors.push(`tool_defs[${i}]: must be {type:\"function\", function:{name}}`)\n      }\n    })\n  }\n\n  if (value.steps !== undefined) {\n    if (!Array.isArray(value.steps)) {\n      errors.push('steps: expected array when present')\n    } else {\n      value.steps.forEach((s, i) => {\n        if (!isRecord(s) || typeof s.kind !== 'string' || typeof s.name !== 'string') {\n          errors.push(`steps[${i}]: must be {kind: string, name: string, …}`)\n        }\n      })\n    }\n  }\n\n  validateSection(\n    value.outcome,\n    'outcome',\n    [\n      ['reward', isNumberOrNull, 'number|null'],\n      ['reward_source', isStringOrNull, 'string|null'],\n      ['metrics', isRecord, 'object'],\n      ['is_completed', (v) => typeof v === 'boolean', 'boolean'],\n      ['is_truncated', (v) => typeof v === 'boolean', 'boolean'],\n      ['error', isStringOrNull, 'string|null'],\n    ],\n    errors,\n  )\n  if (isRecord(value.outcome)) {\n    if (!('verdict' in value.outcome)) errors.push('outcome.verdict: field required (may be null)')\n    if (typeof value.outcome.realness_gated !== 'boolean') {\n      errors.push('outcome.realness_gated: expected boolean')\n    }\n  }\n\n  validateSection(\n    value.cost,\n    'cost',\n    [\n      ['usd', isNumberOrNull, 'number|null'],\n      ['tokens_in', isNumberOrNull, 'number|null'],\n      ['tokens_out', isNumberOrNull, 'number|null'],\n      ['tokens_reasoning', isNumberOrNull, 'number|null'],\n      ['cache_read', isNumberOrNull, 'number|null'],\n      ['cache_write', isNumberOrNull, 'number|null'],\n      ['wall_s', isNumberOrNull, 'number|null'],\n    ],\n    errors,\n  )\n\n  validateSection(\n    value.artifacts,\n    'artifacts',\n    [\n      ['patch_path', isStringOrNull, 'string|null'],\n      ['run_dir', isStringOrNull, 'string|null'],\n      ['transcript_ref', isStringOrNull, 'string|null'],\n    ],\n    errors,\n  )\n\n  validateSection(\n    value.provenance,\n    'provenance',\n    [\n      [\n        'captured_at',\n        (v) => typeof v === 'string' && !Number.isNaN(Date.parse(v)),\n        'ISO-8601 timestamp',\n      ],\n      [\n        'capture',\n        (v) => ROLLOUT_CAPTURES.includes(v as RolloutCapture),\n        `one of ${ROLLOUT_CAPTURES.join('|')}`,\n      ],\n    ],\n    errors,\n  )\n  if (\n    isRecord(value.provenance) &&\n    value.provenance.gap !== undefined &&\n    typeof value.provenance.gap !== 'string'\n  ) {\n    errors.push('provenance.gap: must be string when present')\n  }\n\n  // A gap line must say WHY it is a gap; a full line must not carry a gap note.\n  if (Array.isArray(value.messages) && isRecord(value.provenance)) {\n    if (value.messages.length === 0 && typeof value.provenance.gap !== 'string') {\n      errors.push('provenance.gap: required when messages is empty')\n    }\n  }\n\n  return errors\n}\n\nexport function assertRolloutLine(\n  value: unknown,\n  context = 'rollout line',\n): asserts value is RolloutLine {\n  const errors = validateRolloutLine(value)\n  if (errors.length > 0) {\n    throw new Error(`invalid ${context}:\\n  ${errors.join('\\n  ')}`)\n  }\n}\n\nexport function isRolloutLine(value: unknown): value is RolloutLine {\n  return validateRolloutLine(value).length === 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package/dist/{chunk-DPZAEKA6.js → chunk-VLOATJQ2.js}

@@ -1,15 +1,18 @@
+import {
+  pairRunRecords
+} from "./chunk-DPUHNQLN.js";
 import {
   benjaminiHochberg,
-  cohensD,
   confidenceInterval,
   pairedBootstrap,
+  pairedCohensDz,
   pairedMde,
   wilcoxonSignedRank
-} from "./chunk-PJQFMIOX.js";
+} from "./chunk-MHELPNRP.js";
 import {
   canonicalize,
   hashJson
-} from "./chunk-VSMTAMNK.js";
+} from "./chunk-2JX3CFMB.js";
 
 // src/summary-report.ts
 function summaryTable(runs, opts = {}) {
@@ -34,14 +37,20 @@ function summaryTable(runs, opts = {}) {
   for (const id of candidateIds) {
     const bucket = byCandidate.get(id);
     const ci = confidenceInterval(bucket.scores, confidence);
-    let rawP = Number.NaN;
-    let d = Number.NaN;
+    let rawP = null;
+    let d = null;
+    let pairedN = null;
+    let unpairedCandidateN = null;
+    let unpairedComparatorN = null;
     if (comparator && compRuns && id !== comparator) {
       const paired = pairScoresByKey(bucket.runs, compRuns.runs, scoreField);
+      pairedN = paired.before.length;
+      unpairedCandidateN = paired.unpairedCandidateN;
+      unpairedComparatorN = paired.unpairedComparatorN;
       if (paired.before.length >= 6) {
         rawP = wilcoxonSignedRank(paired.before, paired.after).p;
       }
-      d = cohensD(compRuns.scores, bucket.scores);
+      d = pairedCohensDz(paired.before, paired.after);
     }
     tentative.push({
       candidateId: id,
@@ -51,6 +60,9 @@ function summaryTable(runs, opts = {}) {
       ciHigh: ci.upper,
       qValue: rawP,
       cohensD: d,
+      pairedN,
+      unpairedCandidateN,
+      unpairedComparatorN,
       rawP
     });
   }
@@ -60,7 +72,7 @@ function summaryTable(runs, opts = {}) {
     for (let i = 0; i < tentative.length; i++) {
       const r = tentative[i];
       if (r.candidateId === comparator) continue;
-      if (!Number.isFinite(r.rawP)) continue;
+      if (r.rawP === null || !Number.isFinite(r.rawP)) continue;
       idxs.push(i);
       ps.push(r.rawP);
     }
@@ -76,38 +88,32 @@ function summaryTable(runs, opts = {}) {
   return { rows, comparator, split, markdown };
 }
 function pairScoresByKey(candidate, baseline, scoreField) {
-  const baseIdx = /* @__PURE__ */ new Map();
-  for (const r of baseline) {
-    const v = r.outcome[scoreField];
-    if (typeof v === "number" && Number.isFinite(v)) {
-      baseIdx.set(`${r.experimentId}::${r.seed}`, v);
-    }
-  }
-  const before = [];
-  const after = [];
-  for (const r of candidate) {
-    const v = r.outcome[scoreField];
-    if (typeof v !== "number" || !Number.isFinite(v)) continue;
-    const key = `${r.experimentId}::${r.seed}`;
-    const b = baseIdx.get(key);
-    if (b === void 0) continue;
-    before.push(b);
-    after.push(v);
-  }
-  return { before, after };
+  const scoredCandidate = candidate.filter((run) => Number.isFinite(run.outcome[scoreField]));
+  const scoredBaseline = baseline.filter((run) => Number.isFinite(run.outcome[scoreField]));
+  const pairing = pairRunRecords(scoredBaseline, scoredCandidate);
+  return {
+    before: pairing.pairs.map((pair) => pair.baseline.outcome[scoreField]),
+    after: pairing.pairs.map((pair) => pair.treatment.outcome[scoreField]),
+    unpairedCandidateN: pairing.unpairedTreatment.length,
+    unpairedComparatorN: pairing.unpairedBaseline.length
+  };
 }
 function renderSummaryTableMarkdown(rows, comparator, split) {
   const lines = [];
   const cmpLabel = comparator ? ` (vs ${comparator})` : "";
   lines.push(`Summary Table \u2014 ${split} split${cmpLabel}`);
   lines.push("");
-  lines.push("| Candidate | N | Mean | 95% CI | q (BH) | Cohen's d |");
-  lines.push("|---|---:|---:|---|---:|---:|");
+  lines.push("| Candidate | N | Pairs | Unpaired | Mean | 95% CI | q (BH) | Cohen's dz |");
+  lines.push("|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---|---:|---:|");
   for (const r of rows) {
     const ci = `[${fmt(r.ciLow)}, ${fmt(r.ciHigh)}]`;
-    const q = Number.isFinite(r.qValue) ? r.qValue.toFixed(4) : "\u2014";
-    const d = Number.isFinite(r.cohensD) ? r.cohensD.toFixed(3) : "\u2014";
-    lines.push(`| ${r.candidateId} | ${r.n} | ${fmt(r.mean)} | ${ci} | ${q} | ${d} |`);
+    const q = r.qValue !== null ? r.qValue.toFixed(4) : "\u2014";
+    const d = r.cohensD !== null ? r.cohensD.toFixed(3) : "\u2014";
+    const paired = r.pairedN ?? "\u2014";
+    const unpaired = r.unpairedCandidateN === null || r.unpairedComparatorN === null ? "\u2014" : `${r.unpairedCandidateN}/${r.unpairedComparatorN}`;
+    lines.push(
+      `| ${r.candidateId} | ${r.n} | ${paired} | ${unpaired} | ${fmt(r.mean)} | ${ci} | ${q} | ${d} |`
+    );
   }
   return lines.join("\n");
 }
@@ -119,6 +125,7 @@ function paretoChart(runs, opts = {}) {
     if (r.splitTag !== split) continue;
     const v = r.outcome[scoreField];
     if (typeof v !== "number" || !Number.isFinite(v)) continue;
+    if (r.costUsd === null) continue;
     const bucket = buckets.get(r.candidateId) ?? { cost: [], quality: [] };
     bucket.cost.push(r.costUsd);
     bucket.quality.push(v);
@@ -149,11 +156,7 @@ function dominates(a, b) {
   return a.cost <= b.cost && a.quality >= b.quality && (a.cost < b.cost || a.quality > b.quality);
 }
 function gateLabel(d) {
-  if (d.promote) return "promote";
-  if (d.rejectionCode === "few_runs") return "reject_few_runs";
-  if (d.rejectionCode === "negative_delta") return "reject_negative_delta";
-  if (d.rejectionCode === "overfit_gap") return "reject_overfit_gap";
-  return null;
+  return d.promote ? "promote" : "reject";
 }
 function gainHistogram(runs, candidateId, comparator, opts = {}) {
   const split = opts.split ?? "holdout";
@@ -162,7 +165,11 @@ function gainHistogram(runs, candidateId, comparator, opts = {}) {
   if (binCount < 1) throw new Error("gainHistogram: bins must be \u2265 1");
   const candidate = runs.filter((r) => r.candidateId === candidateId && r.splitTag === split);
   const baseline = runs.filter((r) => r.candidateId === comparator && r.splitTag === split);
-  const { before, after } = pairScoresByKey(candidate, baseline, scoreField);
+  const { before, after, unpairedCandidateN, unpairedComparatorN } = pairScoresByKey(
+    candidate,
+    baseline,
+    scoreField
+  );
   const n = before.length;
   if (n === 0) {
     return {
@@ -171,9 +178,11 @@ function gainHistogram(runs, candidateId, comparator, opts = {}) {
       comparator,
       split,
       n: 0,
+      unpairedCandidateN,
+      unpairedComparatorN,
       bins: [],
-      median: 0,
-      ci: { low: 0, high: 0 }
+      median: null,
+      ci: null
     };
   }
   const deltas = before.map((b, i) => after[i] - b);
@@ -207,6 +216,8 @@ function gainHistogram(runs, candidateId, comparator, opts = {}) {
     comparator,
     split,
     n,
+    unpairedCandidateN,
+    unpairedComparatorN,
     bins,
     median,
     ci: { low: ci.low, high: ci.high }
@@ -231,7 +242,7 @@ function pairedPosterior(runs, candidateId, comparator, opts) {
     statistic: "median",
     seed: opts.seed
   });
-  const meanSamples = bootstrapMeanSamples(deltas, 2e3, opts.seed);
+  const meanSamples = bayesianBootstrapMeanSamples(deltas, 2e3, opts.seed);
   const prGreaterThanZero = meanSamples.length === 0 ? 0 : meanSamples.filter((s) => s > 0).length / meanSamples.length;
   const prInRope = opts.rope === null || meanSamples.length === 0 ? null : meanSamples.filter((s) => s >= opts.rope.low && s <= opts.rope.high).length / meanSamples.length;
   const dStandardised = pairedMde({ nPaired: n, alpha: opts.mdeAlpha, power: opts.mdePower });
@@ -247,16 +258,21 @@ function pairedPosterior(runs, candidateId, comparator, opts) {
     mde
   };
 }
-function bootstrapMeanSamples(deltas, resamples, seed) {
+function bayesianBootstrapMeanSamples(deltas, resamples, seed) {
   const n = deltas.length;
   if (n === 0) return [];
   if (n === 1) return new Array(resamples).fill(deltas[0]);
   const rng = seedRng(seed);
   const samples = new Array(resamples);
   for (let b = 0; b < resamples; b++) {
-    let sum = 0;
-    for (let k = 0; k < n; k++) sum += deltas[Math.floor(rng() * n)];
-    samples[b] = sum / n;
+    let weightedSum = 0;
+    let weightSum = 0;
+    for (let k = 0; k < n; k++) {
+      const weight = -Math.log(Math.max(Number.MIN_VALUE, rng()));
+      weightedSum += deltas[k] * weight;
+      weightSum += weight;
+    }
+    samples[b] = weightedSum / weightSum;
   }
   return samples;
 }
@@ -331,10 +347,13 @@ async function researchReport(runs, opts = {}) {
     const gain = gainByCandidate.get(row.candidateId);
     const point = paretoByCandidate.get(row.candidateId);
     const posterior = posteriorByCandidate.get(row.candidateId) ?? null;
+    const gateDecision = opts.gateDecisions?.[row.candidateId];
     const classified = classifyCandidate(row, {
       comparator,
       posterior,
       point,
+      gateDecision,
+      split,
       fdr,
       minPairs,
       rope
@@ -356,7 +375,7 @@ async function researchReport(runs, opts = {}) {
       prInRope: posterior ? posterior.prInRope : null,
       mde: posterior ? posterior.mde : null,
       onParetoFrontier: point?.onFrontier ?? false,
-      gate: point?.gate,
+      gate: gateDecision ? gateLabel(gateDecision) : void 0,
       decision: classified.decision,
       decisionReason: classified.reason
     };
@@ -435,7 +454,7 @@ async function researchReport(runs, opts = {}) {
 }
 function buildMethodology(ctx) {
   const assumptions = [
-    "Pairs are matched by (experimentId, seed); the candidate and comparator see the same scenarios in the same order.",
+    "Pairs are matched by (experimentId, scenarioId, seed); input order does not affect the comparison.",
     "Paired deltas are exchangeable conditional on the matched scenario \u2014 no mid-run distribution shift.",
     `Decisions are pre-specified at fdr=${ctx.fdr}, minPairs=${ctx.minPairs}, confidence=${ctx.confidence}; deviating from these post-hoc invalidates the false-discovery control.`
   ];
@@ -448,8 +467,8 @@ function buildMethodology(ctx) {
     assumptions.push("No comparator was configured; this run is descriptive, not causal.");
   }
   const methods = [
-    "Marginal scores summarised with BH-FDR-adjusted Wilcoxon signed-rank q-values and Cohen's d via summaryTable.",
-    "Paired evidence summarised with bootstrap CI on the median delta and Bayesian-bootstrap-style Pr(\u0394>0) and Pr(\u0394\u2208ROPE) on the mean delta.",
+    "Marginal scores summarised with BH-FDR-adjusted Wilcoxon signed-rank q-values and paired Cohen's dz via summaryTable.",
+    "Paired evidence summarised with a frequentist bootstrap CI on the median delta and a Dirichlet-weight Bayesian bootstrap for Pr(\u0394>0) and Pr(\u0394\u2208ROPE) on the mean delta.",
     `Minimum detectable effect reported per candidate at \u03B1=${ctx.mdeAlpha} (two-sided), power=${ctx.mdePower}, standardised by the observed paired-delta SD.`,
     "Pareto frontier flagged as a separate axis (cost vs quality); a candidate can be on-frontier without winning the paired test.",
     "Held-out gate decisions, when supplied, override the statistical verdict in the reject direction."
@@ -482,15 +501,19 @@ function classifyCandidate(row, ctx) {
   if (ctx.comparator && row.candidateId === ctx.comparator) {
     return { decision: "hold", reason: "Comparator baseline." };
   }
+  if (ctx.gateDecision && !ctx.gateDecision.promote) {
+    const code = ctx.gateDecision.rejectionCode ?? "rejected";
+    return {
+      decision: "reject",
+      reason: `Held-out gate returned ${code}: ${ctx.gateDecision.reason}`
+    };
+  }
   if (!ctx.comparator) {
     return {
       decision: ctx.point?.onFrontier ? "hold" : "needs_more_data",
       reason: "No comparator configured; report ranks candidates but cannot anchor a promotion call."
     };
   }
-  if (ctx.point?.gate && ctx.point.gate !== "promote") {
-    return { decision: "reject", reason: `Held-out gate returned ${ctx.point.gate}.` };
-  }
   if (!ctx.posterior || ctx.posterior.n < RESEARCH_REPORT_HARD_PAIR_FLOOR) {
     return {
       decision: "needs_more_data",
@@ -498,13 +521,18 @@ function classifyCandidate(row, ctx) {
     };
   }
   const ci = ctx.posterior.ci;
+  if (ctx.split === "search") {
+    return {
+      decision: "hold",
+      reason: "Search-split evidence is descriptive; release decisions require matched holdout runs."
+    };
+  }
   if (ctx.rope && ci.low >= ctx.rope.low && ci.high <= ctx.rope.high) {
     return {
       decision: "equivalent",
       reason: `Paired-delta CI [${fmt(ci.low)}, ${fmt(ci.high)}] is fully inside ROPE ${formatRope(ctx.rope)}; candidate is practically equivalent to comparator.`
     };
   }
-  const significant = Number.isFinite(row.qValue) && row.qValue <= ctx.fdr;
   const gainPositive = ci.low > 0;
   const gainNegative = ci.high < 0;
   if (gainNegative) {
@@ -519,7 +547,7 @@ function classifyCandidate(row, ctx) {
       reason: `Only ${ctx.posterior.n} paired observations; minimum detectable effect at this N is ${fmt(ctx.posterior.mde)} score units (need \u2265 ${ctx.minPairs} pairs to issue a directional verdict).`
     };
   }
-  if (significant && gainPositive) {
+  if (row.qValue !== null && row.qValue <= ctx.fdr && gainPositive) {
     return {
       decision: "promote",
       reason: `BH-adjusted q=${fmt(row.qValue)} \u2264 ${ctx.fdr} and paired-delta CI [${fmt(ci.low)}, ${fmt(ci.high)}] excludes zero; Pr(\u0394>0)=${fmt(ctx.posterior.prGreaterThanZero)}.`
@@ -681,14 +709,14 @@ function renderResearchMarkdown(report) {
   lines.push("## Candidate Decision Table");
   lines.push("");
   lines.push(
-    "| Candidate | Decision | Mean | \u0394\u0304 | Pr(\u0394>0) | q | d | Paired N | Median Gain CI | MDE | Pareto | Gate |"
+    "| Candidate | Decision | Mean | \u0394\u0304 | Pr(\u0394>0) | q | dz | Paired N | Median Gain CI | MDE | Pareto | Gate |"
   );
   lines.push("|---|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---|---:|---|---|");
   for (const c of report.candidates) {
     const delta = c.meanDeltaVsComparator === null ? "-" : signed(c.meanDeltaVsComparator);
     const prGt = c.prGreaterThanZero === null ? "-" : c.prGreaterThanZero.toFixed(3);
-    const q = Number.isFinite(c.qValue) ? c.qValue.toFixed(4) : "-";
-    const d = Number.isFinite(c.cohensD) ? c.cohensD.toFixed(3) : "-";
+    const q = c.qValue !== null ? c.qValue.toFixed(4) : "-";
+    const d = c.cohensD !== null ? c.cohensD.toFixed(3) : "-";
     const gain = c.gainCi ? `[${fmt(c.gainCi.low)}, ${fmt(c.gainCi.high)}]` : "-";
     const mde = c.mde === null || !Number.isFinite(c.mde) ? "-" : fmt(c.mde);
     lines.push(
@@ -877,4 +905,4 @@ export {
   RESEARCH_REPORT_HARD_PAIR_FLOOR,
   researchReport
 };
-//# sourceMappingURL=chunk-DPZAEKA6.js.map
+//# sourceMappingURL=chunk-VLOATJQ2.js.map

package/dist/chunk-VLOATJQ2.js.map

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+{"version":3,"sources":["../src/summary-report.ts"],"sourcesContent":["/**\n * Reporting helpers — production summaries and paper-quality figures — sit alongside `reporter.ts` rather\n * than replacing it.\n *\n * Three artefacts:\n *\n *   - `summaryTable`           Markdown table of per-candidate means,\n *                            95% bootstrap CIs, BH-adjusted Wilcoxon\n *                            p-values, and Cohen's d versus a\n *                            comparator candidate.\n *   - `paretoChart`         Abstract spec for a cost vs quality\n *                            scatter, with gate decisions overlaid.\n *                            Returns numbers + labels — caller\n *                            chooses the plotting library.\n *   - `gainHistogram`\n *                            Per-item paired holdout deltas as a\n *                            histogram spec (bins + counts + median +\n *                            CI). Same \"data, not images\" contract.\n *\n * The figure types are PlotSpecs — JSON-friendly, library-agnostic.\n * They aren't React components and they aren't PNGs; they are\n * what you'd hand to vega-lite, plotly, matplotlib, or your own\n * Canvas renderer to draw the actual figure.\n */\n\nimport type { GateDecision } from './held-out-gate'\nimport { pairRunRecords } from './paired-arms'\nimport type { FailureClusterReport } from './pipelines/failure-cluster'\nimport { canonicalize, hashJson } from './pre-registration'\nimport type { RunRecord } from './run-record'\nimport {\n  benjaminiHochberg,\n  confidenceInterval,\n  pairedBootstrap,\n  pairedCohensDz,\n  pairedMde,\n  wilcoxonSignedRank,\n} from './statistics'\n\n// ── summaryTable ───────────────────────────────────────────────────────\n\nexport interface SummaryTableOptions {\n  /** Comparator candidate id. Wilcoxon + paired Cohen's dz are computed\n   *  versus this candidate. Required for paired stats columns. */\n  comparator?: string\n  /** Which split to read scores from. Default 'holdout'. */\n  split?: 'search' | 'holdout'\n  /** Confidence level for the bootstrap CI on the mean. Default 0.95. */\n  confidence?: number\n  /** FDR for BH adjustment of the comparison p-values. Default 0.05. */\n  fdr?: number\n}\n\nexport interface SummaryTableRow {\n  candidateId: string\n  n: number\n  mean: number\n  ciLow: number\n  ciHigh: number\n  /** BH-adjusted q-value vs comparator, or null when unavailable. */\n  qValue: number | null\n  /** Paired Cohen's dz vs comparator, or null when the paired variance is zero. */\n  cohensD: number | null\n  /** Matched observations used for paired comparison, or null on the comparator row. */\n  pairedN: number | null\n  /** Candidate observations without a comparator match. */\n  unpairedCandidateN: number | null\n  /** Comparator observations without a candidate match. */\n  unpairedComparatorN: number | null\n}\n\nexport interface SummaryTable {\n  rows: SummaryTableRow[]\n  comparator: string | null\n  split: 'search' | 'holdout'\n  /** Pre-rendered markdown — drop into a paper or PR. */\n  markdown: string\n}\n\n/**\n * Table 1 helper. Buckets runs by `candidateId`, computes mean +\n * bootstrap CI on the chosen split, and (when a comparator is given)\n * BH-adjusted Wilcoxon p + paired Cohen's dz versus that comparator.\n */\nexport function summaryTable(runs: RunRecord[], opts: SummaryTableOptions = {}): SummaryTable {\n  const split = opts.split ?? 'holdout'\n  const confidence = opts.confidence ?? 0.95\n  const fdr = opts.fdr ?? 0.05\n  const comparator = opts.comparator ?? null\n  const scoreField = split === 'holdout' ? 'holdoutScore' : 'searchScore'\n\n  const byCandidate = new Map<string, { runs: RunRecord[]; scores: number[] }>()\n  for (const r of runs) {\n    if (r.splitTag !== split) continue\n    const v = r.outcome[scoreField]\n    if (typeof v !== 'number' || !Number.isFinite(v)) continue\n    const bucket = byCandidate.get(r.candidateId) ?? { runs: [], scores: [] }\n    bucket.runs.push(r)\n    bucket.scores.push(v)\n    byCandidate.set(r.candidateId, bucket)\n  }\n\n  const candidateIds = [...byCandidate.keys()].sort()\n  const compRuns = comparator ? byCandidate.get(comparator) : undefined\n\n  // First pass: per-candidate means + CIs + raw p-values.\n  const tentative: Array<SummaryTableRow & { rawP: number | null }> = []\n  for (const id of candidateIds) {\n    const bucket = byCandidate.get(id)!\n    const ci = confidenceInterval(bucket.scores, confidence)\n    let rawP: number | null = null\n    let d: number | null = null\n    let pairedN: number | null = null\n    let unpairedCandidateN: number | null = null\n    let unpairedComparatorN: number | null = null\n    if (comparator && compRuns && id !== comparator) {\n      const paired = pairScoresByKey(bucket.runs, compRuns.runs, scoreField)\n      pairedN = paired.before.length\n      unpairedCandidateN = paired.unpairedCandidateN\n      unpairedComparatorN = paired.unpairedComparatorN\n      if (paired.before.length >= 6) {\n        rawP = wilcoxonSignedRank(paired.before, paired.after).p\n      }\n      d = pairedCohensDz(paired.before, paired.after)\n    }\n    tentative.push({\n      candidateId: id,\n      n: bucket.scores.length,\n      mean: ci.mean,\n      ciLow: ci.lower,\n      ciHigh: ci.upper,\n      qValue: rawP,\n      cohensD: d,\n      pairedN,\n      unpairedCandidateN,\n      unpairedComparatorN,\n      rawP,\n    })\n  }\n\n  // BH-adjust across the comparison set (skip NaN rows / the\n  // comparator itself). Adjustment is a no-op when there are 0 or 1\n  // comparators.\n  if (comparator) {\n    const idxs: number[] = []\n    const ps: number[] = []\n    for (let i = 0; i < tentative.length; i++) {\n      const r = tentative[i]!\n      if (r.candidateId === comparator) continue\n      if (r.rawP === null || !Number.isFinite(r.rawP)) continue\n      idxs.push(i)\n      ps.push(r.rawP)\n    }\n    if (ps.length > 0) {\n      const { qValues } = benjaminiHochberg(ps, fdr)\n      for (let k = 0; k < idxs.length; k++) {\n        tentative[idxs[k]!]!.qValue = qValues[k]!\n      }\n    }\n  }\n\n  const rows = tentative.map(({ rawP: _rawP, ...rest }) => rest)\n  const markdown = renderSummaryTableMarkdown(rows, comparator, split)\n  return { rows, comparator, split, markdown }\n}\n\nfunction pairScoresByKey(\n  candidate: RunRecord[],\n  baseline: RunRecord[],\n  scoreField: 'searchScore' | 'holdoutScore',\n): {\n  before: number[]\n  after: number[]\n  unpairedCandidateN: number\n  unpairedComparatorN: number\n} {\n  const scoredCandidate = candidate.filter((run) => Number.isFinite(run.outcome[scoreField]))\n  const scoredBaseline = baseline.filter((run) => Number.isFinite(run.outcome[scoreField]))\n  const pairing = pairRunRecords(scoredBaseline, scoredCandidate)\n  return {\n    before: pairing.pairs.map((pair) => pair.baseline.outcome[scoreField]!),\n    after: pairing.pairs.map((pair) => pair.treatment.outcome[scoreField]!),\n    unpairedCandidateN: pairing.unpairedTreatment.length,\n    unpairedComparatorN: pairing.unpairedBaseline.length,\n  }\n}\n\nfunction renderSummaryTableMarkdown(\n  rows: SummaryTableRow[],\n  comparator: string | null,\n  split: 'search' | 'holdout',\n): string {\n  const lines: string[] = []\n  const cmpLabel = comparator ? ` (vs ${comparator})` : ''\n  lines.push(`Summary Table — ${split} split${cmpLabel}`)\n  lines.push('')\n  lines.push(\"| Candidate | N | Pairs | Unpaired | Mean | 95% CI | q (BH) | Cohen's dz |\")\n  lines.push('|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---|---:|---:|')\n  for (const r of rows) {\n    const ci = `[${fmt(r.ciLow)}, ${fmt(r.ciHigh)}]`\n    const q = r.qValue !== null ? r.qValue.toFixed(4) : '—'\n    const d = r.cohensD !== null ? r.cohensD.toFixed(3) : '—'\n    const paired = r.pairedN ?? '—'\n    const unpaired =\n      r.unpairedCandidateN === null || r.unpairedComparatorN === null\n        ? '—'\n        : `${r.unpairedCandidateN}/${r.unpairedComparatorN}`\n    lines.push(\n      `| ${r.candidateId} | ${r.n} | ${paired} | ${unpaired} | ${fmt(r.mean)} | ${ci} | ${q} | ${d} |`,\n    )\n  }\n  return lines.join('\\n')\n}\n\n// ── paretoChart ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────\n\nexport interface ParetoPoint {\n  candidateId: string\n  /** Mean USD cost per run on the chosen split. */\n  cost: number\n  /** Mean score on the chosen split. */\n  quality: number\n  /** Number of runs that informed this point. */\n  n: number\n  /** Whether this candidate is on the Pareto frontier — high\n   *  quality, low cost, no dominator. */\n  onFrontier: boolean\n  /** Optional gate verdict for this candidate, if a `GateDecision`\n   *  for it was passed in. */\n  gate?: 'promote' | 'reject'\n}\n\nexport interface ParetoFigureSpec {\n  kind: 'pareto-cost-quality'\n  split: 'search' | 'holdout'\n  points: ParetoPoint[]\n  axes: { x: 'costUsd'; y: 'score' }\n}\n\n/**\n * Cost vs quality scatter spec. `gateDecisions` is keyed by\n * candidate id; if present, every point picks up the gate verdict\n * for overlay.\n */\nexport function paretoChart(\n  runs: RunRecord[],\n  opts: {\n    split?: 'search' | 'holdout'\n    gateDecisions?: Record<string, GateDecision>\n  } = {},\n): ParetoFigureSpec {\n  const split = opts.split ?? 'holdout'\n  const scoreField = split === 'holdout' ? 'holdoutScore' : 'searchScore'\n\n  const buckets = new Map<string, { cost: number[]; quality: number[] }>()\n  for (const r of runs) {\n    if (r.splitTag !== split) continue\n    const v = r.outcome[scoreField]\n    if (typeof v !== 'number' || !Number.isFinite(v)) continue\n    if (r.costUsd === null) continue\n    const bucket = buckets.get(r.candidateId) ?? { cost: [], quality: [] }\n    bucket.cost.push(r.costUsd)\n    bucket.quality.push(v)\n    buckets.set(r.candidateId, bucket)\n  }\n\n  const points: ParetoPoint[] = []\n  for (const [candidateId, bucket] of buckets.entries()) {\n    points.push({\n      candidateId,\n      cost: avg(bucket.cost),\n      quality: avg(bucket.quality),\n      n: bucket.cost.length,\n      onFrontier: false,\n      gate: opts.gateDecisions?.[candidateId]\n        ? gateLabel(opts.gateDecisions[candidateId]!)\n        : undefined,\n    })\n  }\n\n  // Pareto: minimize cost, maximize quality. A point is dominated if\n  // some other point has lower-or-equal cost AND higher-or-equal\n  // quality with strict inequality somewhere.\n  for (const p of points) {\n    p.onFrontier = !points.some((q) => q !== p && dominates(q, p))\n  }\n\n  return {\n    kind: 'pareto-cost-quality',\n    split,\n    axes: { x: 'costUsd', y: 'score' },\n    points,\n  }\n}\n\nfunction dominates(a: ParetoPoint, b: ParetoPoint): boolean {\n  return a.cost <= b.cost && a.quality >= b.quality && (a.cost < b.cost || a.quality > b.quality)\n}\n\nfunction gateLabel(d: GateDecision): ParetoPoint['gate'] {\n  return d.promote ? 'promote' : 'reject'\n}\n\n// ── gainHistogram ───────────────────────────────────────────\n\nexport interface GainDistributionBin {\n  /** Inclusive lower edge. */\n  lo: number\n  /** Exclusive upper edge (or inclusive if it's the last bin). */\n  hi: number\n  /** Number of pairs whose delta lands in this bin. */\n  count: number\n}\n\nexport interface GainDistributionFigureSpec {\n  kind: 'gain-distribution'\n  candidateId: string\n  comparator: string\n  split: 'search' | 'holdout'\n  /** Number of pairs used. */\n  n: number\n  /** Candidate rows without a comparator match. */\n  unpairedCandidateN: number\n  /** Comparator rows without a candidate match. */\n  unpairedComparatorN: number\n  bins: GainDistributionBin[]\n  median: number | null\n  ci: { low: number; high: number } | null\n}\n\nexport interface GainDistributionOptions {\n  /** Number of histogram bins. Default 11 (so the centre is exact at 0). */\n  bins?: number\n  /** Which split to use. Default 'holdout'. */\n  split?: 'search' | 'holdout'\n  /** Confidence level for the CI. Default 0.95. */\n  confidence?: number\n  /** Bootstrap resamples. Default 2000. */\n  resamples?: number\n  /** Deterministic seed. */\n  seed?: number\n}\n\n/**\n * Held-out improvement distribution: per-pair delta (candidate −\n * comparator), histogrammed. Includes the bootstrap CI on the median\n * delta — same primitive the promotion gate uses.\n */\nexport function gainHistogram(\n  runs: RunRecord[],\n  candidateId: string,\n  comparator: string,\n  opts: GainDistributionOptions = {},\n): GainDistributionFigureSpec {\n  const split = opts.split ?? 'holdout'\n  const scoreField = split === 'holdout' ? 'holdoutScore' : 'searchScore'\n  const binCount = opts.bins ?? 11\n  if (binCount < 1) throw new Error('gainHistogram: bins must be ≥ 1')\n\n  const candidate = runs.filter((r) => r.candidateId === candidateId && r.splitTag === split)\n  const baseline = runs.filter((r) => r.candidateId === comparator && r.splitTag === split)\n  const { before, after, unpairedCandidateN, unpairedComparatorN } = pairScoresByKey(\n    candidate,\n    baseline,\n    scoreField,\n  )\n  const n = before.length\n\n  if (n === 0) {\n    return {\n      kind: 'gain-distribution',\n      candidateId,\n      comparator,\n      split,\n      n: 0,\n      unpairedCandidateN,\n      unpairedComparatorN,\n      bins: [],\n      median: null,\n      ci: null,\n    }\n  }\n\n  const deltas = before.map((b, i) => after[i]! - b)\n  const sortedDeltas = [...deltas].sort((a, b) => a - b)\n  const median = medianOfSorted(sortedDeltas)\n  const min = sortedDeltas[0]!\n  const max = sortedDeltas[sortedDeltas.length - 1]!\n\n  // Symmetric bins around the wider of (|min|, |max|) so the chart\n  // visually centres on zero without dropping outliers.\n  const bound = Math.max(Math.abs(min), Math.abs(max), 1e-6)\n  const lo = -bound\n  const hi = bound\n  const width = (hi - lo) / binCount\n  const bins: GainDistributionBin[] = []\n  for (let i = 0; i < binCount; i++) {\n    bins.push({ lo: lo + i * width, hi: lo + (i + 1) * width, count: 0 })\n  }\n  for (const d of deltas) {\n    let idx = Math.floor((d - lo) / width)\n    if (idx < 0) idx = 0\n    if (idx >= binCount) idx = binCount - 1\n    bins[idx]!.count += 1\n  }\n\n  const ci = pairedBootstrap(before, after, {\n    confidence: opts.confidence ?? 0.95,\n    resamples: opts.resamples ?? 2000,\n    statistic: 'median',\n    seed: opts.seed,\n  })\n\n  return {\n    kind: 'gain-distribution',\n    candidateId,\n    comparator,\n    split,\n    n,\n    unpairedCandidateN,\n    unpairedComparatorN,\n    bins,\n    median,\n    ci: { low: ci.low, high: ci.high },\n  }\n}\n\n// ── researchReport ───────────────────────────────────────────────────\n\nexport type ResearchReportDecision =\n  | 'promote'\n  | 'hold'\n  | 'reject'\n  | 'equivalent'\n  | 'needs_more_data'\n\n/**\n * Hard floor below which a paired comparison is treated as uninformative\n * regardless of `minPairs`. Mirrors the lower limit on Wilcoxon signed-rank\n * exact tables; below this the test has no power to separate effect sizes.\n */\nexport const RESEARCH_REPORT_HARD_PAIR_FLOOR = 6\n\nexport interface ResearchReportOptions {\n  /** Human-readable report title. */\n  title?: string\n  /** Comparator candidate id. Required for statistical decision guidance. */\n  comparator?: string\n  /** Which split to use for the primary decision. Default 'holdout'. */\n  split?: 'search' | 'holdout'\n  /** Confidence level used by lower-level report helpers. Default 0.95. */\n  confidence?: number\n  /** FDR threshold for q-values. Default 0.05. */\n  fdr?: number\n  /**\n   * Soft floor on paired observations before issuing a directional\n   * promote / reject. Below this we report `needs_more_data` and surface the\n   * minimum detectable effect at the current N. Default 20 — chosen so the\n   * Wilcoxon signed-rank approximation is reasonable and so the paired\n   * bootstrap CI has non-degenerate coverage. Hard floor is enforced at\n   * `RESEARCH_REPORT_HARD_PAIR_FLOOR` (6) regardless of this value.\n   */\n  minPairs?: number\n  /**\n   * Region of Practical Equivalence on the paired delta. When a candidate's\n   * paired-delta CI is fully contained in `[low, high]`, the decision is\n   * `equivalent` rather than `hold`. Sourced from the domain owner — there is\n   * no statistically-defensible default.\n   */\n  rope?: { low: number; high: number }\n  /**\n   * Power for the minimum detectable effect (MDE) reported on each candidate.\n   * Default 0.8.\n   */\n  mdePower?: number\n  /**\n   * Two-sided alpha for the MDE. Default matches `fdr` so the reported MDE\n   * lines up with the test the report actually runs.\n   */\n  mdeAlpha?: number\n  /** Optional held-out gate decisions keyed by candidate id. */\n  gateDecisions?: Record<string, GateDecision>\n  /** Optional failure clusters from failureClusterView. */\n  failureClusters?: FailureClusterReport\n  /** Build gain histograms for these candidates. Defaults to all non-comparator candidates. */\n  candidateIds?: string[]\n  /** Deterministic bootstrap seed passed to gainHistogram and the posterior helper. */\n  seed?: number\n  /** Report timestamp. Defaults to current time. */\n  generatedAt?: string\n  /**\n   * Hash of a preregistered protocol (e.g. `signManifest({...}).contentHash`).\n   * Embedded verbatim in the report so the analysis can be cited as the\n   * preregistered one rather than a post-hoc fishing expedition.\n   */\n  preregistrationHash?: string\n}\n\nexport interface ResearchReportRecommendation {\n  decision: ResearchReportDecision\n  candidateId: string | null\n  rationale: string[]\n  risks: string[]\n  nextActions: string[]\n}\n\nexport interface ResearchReportCandidate {\n  candidateId: string\n  n: number\n  mean: number\n  ciLow: number\n  ciHigh: number\n  qValue: number | null\n  cohensD: number | null\n  meanDeltaVsComparator: number | null\n  pairedN: number\n  medianGain: number | null\n  meanGain: number | null\n  gainCi: { low: number; high: number } | null\n  /**\n   * Bayesian-bootstrap posterior summaries on the paired mean delta.\n   * Dirichlet(1, ..., 1) weights represent uncertainty over the empirical\n   * distribution of matched deltas.\n   */\n  prGreaterThanZero: number | null\n  prInRope: number | null\n  /**\n   * Minimum detectable effect (in score units) at the candidate's paired N,\n   * the configured power, and the configured alpha. Standardised by the\n   * observed paired-delta SD and inverted via `requiredSampleSize`. Reported\n   * for every candidate so a `needs_more_data` verdict is actionable.\n   */\n  mde: number | null\n  onParetoFrontier: boolean\n  gate?: ParetoPoint['gate']\n  decision: ResearchReportDecision\n  decisionReason: string\n}\n\nexport interface ResearchReportMethodology {\n  /**\n   * Plain-language assumptions the report depends on. Read these first when\n   * deciding whether the verdict is load-bearing for a launch decision.\n   */\n  assumptions: string[]\n  /** Tests and estimators the verdict was computed from. */\n  methods: string[]\n  /** Alternatives the author considered and why this report didn't take them. */\n  alternatives: string[]\n  /** Failure modes — when this report should NOT drive a decision. */\n  whenNotToApply: string[]\n  /** Citations for the methodological choices above. */\n  citations: string[]\n}\n\nexport interface ResearchReport {\n  kind: 'agent-eval-research-report'\n  title: string\n  generatedAt: string\n  split: 'search' | 'holdout'\n  comparator: string | null\n  /**\n   * SHA-256 over the canonicalised set of `(runId, candidateId, split)` triples\n   * the report was computed from, plus the comparator and split. Stable across\n   * key insertion order; recomputable by the reader to verify provenance.\n   */\n  runFingerprint: string\n  preregistrationHash: string | null\n  rope: { low: number; high: number } | null\n  executiveSummary: string[]\n  recommendation: ResearchReportRecommendation\n  candidates: ResearchReportCandidate[]\n  summary: SummaryTable\n  charts: {\n    pareto: ParetoFigureSpec\n    gains: GainDistributionFigureSpec[]\n  }\n  methodology: ResearchReportMethodology\n  failureClusters?: FailureClusterReport\n  markdown: string\n  html: string\n}\n\n/**\n * Internal: paired posterior summary on (candidate − comparator) deltas.\n *\n * Returns the bootstrap CI on the median (matching `gainHistogram`) plus\n * Bayesian-bootstrap posterior summaries Pr(Δ>0) and Pr(Δ∈ROPE) computed\n * from Dirichlet(1, ..., 1) weights on the observed paired deltas\n * (Rubin 1981), and the\n * minimum detectable paired effect at the configured power and α.\n *\n * `null` is returned when no paired observations exist; callers must\n * gate on `n` before consuming the bootstrap statistics.\n */\nfunction pairedPosterior(\n  runs: RunRecord[],\n  candidateId: string,\n  comparator: string,\n  opts: {\n    split: 'search' | 'holdout'\n    confidence: number\n    seed?: number\n    rope: { low: number; high: number } | null\n    mdePower: number\n    mdeAlpha: number\n  },\n): {\n  n: number\n  meanDelta: number\n  medianDelta: number\n  sdDelta: number\n  ci: { low: number; high: number }\n  prGreaterThanZero: number\n  prInRope: number | null\n  mde: number\n} | null {\n  const scoreField = opts.split === 'holdout' ? 'holdoutScore' : 'searchScore'\n  const candidate = runs.filter((r) => r.candidateId === candidateId && r.splitTag === opts.split)\n  const baseline = runs.filter((r) => r.candidateId === comparator && r.splitTag === opts.split)\n  const { before, after } = pairScoresByKey(candidate, baseline, scoreField)\n  const n = before.length\n  if (n === 0) return null\n\n  const deltas = before.map((b, i) => after[i]! - b)\n  const meanDelta = deltas.reduce((s, x) => s + x, 0) / n\n  const sortedDeltas = [...deltas].sort((a, b) => a - b)\n  const medianDelta = medianOfSorted(sortedDeltas)\n  const sdDelta = stdev(deltas, meanDelta)\n\n  const ci = pairedBootstrap(before, after, {\n    confidence: opts.confidence,\n    resamples: 2000,\n    statistic: 'median',\n    seed: opts.seed,\n  })\n\n  const meanSamples = bayesianBootstrapMeanSamples(deltas, 2000, opts.seed)\n  const prGreaterThanZero =\n    meanSamples.length === 0 ? 0 : meanSamples.filter((s) => s > 0).length / meanSamples.length\n  const prInRope =\n    opts.rope === null || meanSamples.length === 0\n      ? null\n      : meanSamples.filter((s) => s >= opts.rope!.low && s <= opts.rope!.high).length /\n        meanSamples.length\n\n  const dStandardised = pairedMde({ nPaired: n, alpha: opts.mdeAlpha, power: opts.mdePower })\n  const mde = sdDelta === 0 ? 0 : dStandardised * sdDelta\n\n  return {\n    n,\n    meanDelta,\n    medianDelta,\n    sdDelta,\n    ci: { low: ci.low, high: ci.high },\n    prGreaterThanZero,\n    prInRope,\n    mde,\n  }\n}\n\nfunction bayesianBootstrapMeanSamples(\n  deltas: number[],\n  resamples: number,\n  seed?: number,\n): number[] {\n  const n = deltas.length\n  if (n === 0) return []\n  if (n === 1) return new Array<number>(resamples).fill(deltas[0]!)\n  const rng = seedRng(seed)\n  const samples = new Array<number>(resamples)\n  for (let b = 0; b < resamples; b++) {\n    let weightedSum = 0\n    let weightSum = 0\n    for (let k = 0; k < n; k++) {\n      const weight = -Math.log(Math.max(Number.MIN_VALUE, rng()))\n      weightedSum += deltas[k]! * weight\n      weightSum += weight\n    }\n    samples[b] = weightedSum / weightSum\n  }\n  return samples\n}\n\nfunction seedRng(seed?: number): () => number {\n  if (seed === undefined) return Math.random\n  let s = seed >>> 0\n  return () => {\n    s = (s + 0x6d2b79f5) >>> 0\n    let t = s\n    t = Math.imul(t ^ (t >>> 15), t | 1)\n    t ^= t + Math.imul(t ^ (t >>> 7), t | 61)\n    return ((t ^ (t >>> 14)) >>> 0) / 4294967296\n  }\n}\n\nfunction stdev(xs: number[], mean: number): number {\n  if (xs.length < 2) return 0\n  let sse = 0\n  for (const x of xs) sse += (x - mean) ** 2\n  return Math.sqrt(sse / (xs.length - 1))\n}\n\n/**\n * Executive research report for CPO / AI-lead / launch-review consumption.\n *\n * Composes:\n *   - `summaryTable`         marginal stats with BH-FDR-adjusted q-values\n *   - `paretoChart`           cost-vs-quality frontier with gate overlay\n *   - `gainHistogram`         per-candidate paired-delta distribution\n *   - paired posterior (this file): bootstrap CI on median, Bayesian-bootstrap Pr(Δ>0),\n *                              Pr(Δ∈ROPE), MDE at the configured power\n *\n * Decisions are made on paired evidence — never on marginal means alone —\n * and respect any held-out gate decision the caller passes through. The\n * report embeds a SHA-256 fingerprint of the input run set and, optionally,\n * the hash of a preregistered protocol so a downstream reader can verify\n * provenance and that the analysis was the preregistered one.\n *\n * Async because the fingerprint uses Web Crypto via `hashJson`; deterministic\n * for any fixed `runs`, `seed`, and ROPE.\n */\nexport async function researchReport(\n  runs: RunRecord[],\n  opts: ResearchReportOptions = {},\n): Promise<ResearchReport> {\n  const split = opts.split ?? 'holdout'\n  const comparator = opts.comparator ?? null\n  const confidence = opts.confidence ?? 0.95\n  const fdr = opts.fdr ?? 0.05\n  const minPairs = Math.max(opts.minPairs ?? 20, RESEARCH_REPORT_HARD_PAIR_FLOOR)\n  const rope = opts.rope ?? null\n  const mdePower = opts.mdePower ?? 0.8\n  const mdeAlpha = opts.mdeAlpha ?? fdr\n  const title = opts.title ?? 'Agent Evaluation Research Report'\n  const generatedAt = opts.generatedAt ?? new Date().toISOString()\n  const preregistrationHash = opts.preregistrationHash ?? null\n\n  if (rope && !(Number.isFinite(rope.low) && Number.isFinite(rope.high) && rope.low <= rope.high)) {\n    throw new Error(\n      `researchReport: rope must satisfy low ≤ high with finite bounds, got ${JSON.stringify(rope)}`,\n    )\n  }\n\n  const summary = summaryTable(runs, {\n    comparator: comparator ?? undefined,\n    split,\n    confidence,\n    fdr,\n  })\n  const pareto = paretoChart(runs, { split, gateDecisions: opts.gateDecisions })\n  const candidateIds =\n    opts.candidateIds ?? summary.rows.map((r) => r.candidateId).filter((id) => id !== comparator)\n  const gains = comparator\n    ? candidateIds.map((id) =>\n        gainHistogram(runs, id, comparator, {\n          split,\n          confidence,\n          seed: opts.seed,\n        }),\n      )\n    : []\n\n  const gainByCandidate = new Map(gains.map((g) => [g.candidateId, g]))\n  const paretoByCandidate = new Map(pareto.points.map((p) => [p.candidateId, p]))\n  const posteriorByCandidate = new Map<string, ReturnType<typeof pairedPosterior>>()\n  if (comparator) {\n    for (const id of candidateIds) {\n      posteriorByCandidate.set(\n        id,\n        pairedPosterior(runs, id, comparator, {\n          split,\n          confidence,\n          seed: opts.seed,\n          rope,\n          mdePower,\n          mdeAlpha,\n        }),\n      )\n    }\n  }\n\n  const candidates = summary.rows\n    .map((row) => {\n      const gain = gainByCandidate.get(row.candidateId)\n      const point = paretoByCandidate.get(row.candidateId)\n      const posterior = posteriorByCandidate.get(row.candidateId) ?? null\n      const gateDecision = opts.gateDecisions?.[row.candidateId]\n      const classified = classifyCandidate(row, {\n        comparator,\n        posterior,\n        point,\n        gateDecision,\n        split,\n        fdr,\n        minPairs,\n        rope,\n      })\n      return {\n        candidateId: row.candidateId,\n        n: row.n,\n        mean: row.mean,\n        ciLow: row.ciLow,\n        ciHigh: row.ciHigh,\n        qValue: row.qValue,\n        cohensD: row.cohensD,\n        meanDeltaVsComparator: posterior ? posterior.meanDelta : null,\n        pairedN: posterior?.n ?? gain?.n ?? 0,\n        medianGain: posterior ? posterior.medianDelta : gain ? gain.median : null,\n        meanGain: posterior ? posterior.meanDelta : null,\n        gainCi: posterior ? posterior.ci : gain ? gain.ci : null,\n        prGreaterThanZero: posterior ? posterior.prGreaterThanZero : null,\n        prInRope: posterior ? posterior.prInRope : null,\n        mde: posterior ? posterior.mde : null,\n        onParetoFrontier: point?.onFrontier ?? false,\n        gate: gateDecision ? gateLabel(gateDecision) : undefined,\n        decision: classified.decision,\n        decisionReason: classified.reason,\n      } satisfies ResearchReportCandidate\n    })\n    .sort((a, b) => {\n      const decisionRank = decisionWeight(b.decision) - decisionWeight(a.decision)\n      if (decisionRank !== 0) return decisionRank\n      return b.mean - a.mean\n    })\n\n  const recommendation = buildRecommendation(candidates, {\n    comparator,\n    failureClusters: opts.failureClusters,\n    rope,\n    minPairs,\n    preregistrationHash,\n  })\n  const executiveSummary = buildExecutiveSummary(candidates, recommendation, {\n    comparator,\n    split,\n    failureClusters: opts.failureClusters,\n    preregistrationHash,\n  })\n  const methodology = buildMethodology({\n    split,\n    comparator,\n    fdr,\n    minPairs,\n    rope,\n    confidence,\n    mdePower,\n    mdeAlpha,\n  })\n\n  const runFingerprint = await hashJson(\n    canonicalize({\n      triples: runs\n        .filter((r) => r.splitTag === split)\n        .map((r) => ({ runId: r.runId, candidateId: r.candidateId, splitTag: r.splitTag }))\n        .sort((a, b) => a.runId.localeCompare(b.runId)),\n      comparator,\n      split,\n    }),\n  )\n\n  const markdown = renderResearchMarkdown({\n    title,\n    generatedAt,\n    split,\n    comparator,\n    rope,\n    runFingerprint,\n    preregistrationHash,\n    executiveSummary,\n    recommendation,\n    candidates,\n    summary,\n    pareto,\n    gains,\n    methodology,\n    failureClusters: opts.failureClusters,\n  })\n  const html = renderResearchHtml(markdown, title)\n\n  return {\n    kind: 'agent-eval-research-report',\n    title,\n    generatedAt,\n    split,\n    comparator,\n    runFingerprint,\n    preregistrationHash,\n    rope,\n    executiveSummary,\n    recommendation,\n    candidates,\n    summary,\n    charts: { pareto, gains },\n    methodology,\n    failureClusters: opts.failureClusters,\n    markdown,\n    html,\n  }\n}\n\nfunction buildMethodology(ctx: {\n  split: 'search' | 'holdout'\n  comparator: string | null\n  fdr: number\n  minPairs: number\n  rope: { low: number; high: number } | null\n  confidence: number\n  mdePower: number\n  mdeAlpha: number\n}): ResearchReportMethodology {\n  const assumptions: string[] = [\n    'Pairs are matched by (experimentId, scenarioId, seed); input order does not affect the comparison.',\n    'Paired deltas are exchangeable conditional on the matched scenario — no mid-run distribution shift.',\n    `Decisions are pre-specified at fdr=${ctx.fdr}, minPairs=${ctx.minPairs}, confidence=${ctx.confidence}; deviating from these post-hoc invalidates the false-discovery control.`,\n  ]\n  if (ctx.rope) {\n    assumptions.push(\n      `The Region of Practical Equivalence ${formatRope(ctx.rope)} is supplied by the domain owner; equivalent verdicts are only meaningful if that range is treated as the standing definition of \"no material difference.\"`,\n    )\n  }\n  if (ctx.comparator === null) {\n    assumptions.push('No comparator was configured; this run is descriptive, not causal.')\n  }\n  const methods: string[] = [\n    \"Marginal scores summarised with BH-FDR-adjusted Wilcoxon signed-rank q-values and paired Cohen's dz via summaryTable.\",\n    'Paired evidence summarised with a frequentist bootstrap CI on the median delta and a Dirichlet-weight Bayesian bootstrap for Pr(Δ>0) and Pr(Δ∈ROPE) on the mean delta.',\n    `Minimum detectable effect reported per candidate at α=${ctx.mdeAlpha} (two-sided), power=${ctx.mdePower}, standardised by the observed paired-delta SD.`,\n    'Pareto frontier flagged as a separate axis (cost vs quality); a candidate can be on-frontier without winning the paired test.',\n    'Held-out gate decisions, when supplied, override the statistical verdict in the reject direction.',\n  ]\n  const alternatives: string[] = [\n    'Paired t-test rejected: not robust to the heavy-tailed score distributions common in agent benchmarks.',\n    'Unpaired Mann–Whitney rejected: matched scenarios make pairing free; unpaired throws away that variance reduction.',\n    'Sequential / always-valid inference (e-values, mSPRT) is the right tool for iterative sweeps and is out of scope for this single-look report — preregister and run once, or wrap this report in an alpha-spending schedule.',\n    'Hierarchical Bayesian shrinkage across many candidates is future work; the current ranking uses raw paired statistics.',\n  ]\n  const whenNotToApply: string[] = [\n    `Paired N below ${RESEARCH_REPORT_HARD_PAIR_FLOOR} on any candidate — the bootstrap CI is degenerate.`,\n    'Comparator chosen post-hoc by inspecting the same data; q-values are no longer false-discovery-controlled.',\n    'Scenarios not drawn under a stable preregistered protocol; the report can describe the data but cannot anchor a launch decision.',\n    'Score distributions with mid-run shift (judge model swap, rubric change, infra outage) — pair exchangeability is violated.',\n  ]\n  const citations: string[] = [\n    'Benjamini, Y. & Hochberg, Y. (1995). Controlling the false discovery rate: a practical and powerful approach to multiple testing. JRSS B, 57(1), 289–300.',\n    'Wilcoxon, F. (1945). Individual comparisons by ranking methods. Biometrics Bulletin, 1(6), 80–83.',\n    'Efron, B. (1979). Bootstrap methods: another look at the jackknife. Annals of Statistics, 7(1), 1–26.',\n    'Rubin, D. B. (1981). The Bayesian bootstrap. Annals of Statistics, 9(1), 130–134.',\n    'Kruschke, J. K. (2018). Rejecting or accepting parameter values in Bayesian estimation. Advances in Methods and Practices in Psychological Science, 1(2), 270–280. (ROPE.)',\n  ]\n  return { assumptions, methods, alternatives, whenNotToApply, citations }\n}\n\nfunction formatRope(rope: { low: number; high: number }): string {\n  return `[${fmt(rope.low)}, ${fmt(rope.high)}]`\n}\n\nfunction classifyCandidate(\n  row: SummaryTableRow,\n  ctx: {\n    comparator: string | null\n    posterior: ReturnType<typeof pairedPosterior> | null\n    point?: ParetoPoint\n    gateDecision?: GateDecision\n    split: 'search' | 'holdout'\n    fdr: number\n    minPairs: number\n    rope: { low: number; high: number } | null\n  },\n): { decision: ResearchReportDecision; reason: string } {\n  if (ctx.comparator && row.candidateId === ctx.comparator) {\n    return { decision: 'hold', reason: 'Comparator baseline.' }\n  }\n  if (ctx.gateDecision && !ctx.gateDecision.promote) {\n    const code = ctx.gateDecision.rejectionCode ?? 'rejected'\n    return {\n      decision: 'reject',\n      reason: `Held-out gate returned ${code}: ${ctx.gateDecision.reason}`,\n    }\n  }\n  if (!ctx.comparator) {\n    return {\n      decision: ctx.point?.onFrontier ? 'hold' : 'needs_more_data',\n      reason:\n        'No comparator configured; report ranks candidates but cannot anchor a promotion call.',\n    }\n  }\n  if (!ctx.posterior || ctx.posterior.n < RESEARCH_REPORT_HARD_PAIR_FLOOR) {\n    return {\n      decision: 'needs_more_data',\n      reason: `Only ${ctx.posterior?.n ?? 0} paired observations; below hard floor of ${RESEARCH_REPORT_HARD_PAIR_FLOOR} for any paired inference.`,\n    }\n  }\n  const ci = ctx.posterior.ci\n  if (ctx.split === 'search') {\n    return {\n      decision: 'hold',\n      reason:\n        'Search-split evidence is descriptive; release decisions require matched holdout runs.',\n    }\n  }\n  if (ctx.rope && ci.low >= ctx.rope.low && ci.high <= ctx.rope.high) {\n    return {\n      decision: 'equivalent',\n      reason: `Paired-delta CI [${fmt(ci.low)}, ${fmt(ci.high)}] is fully inside ROPE ${formatRope(ctx.rope)}; candidate is practically equivalent to comparator.`,\n    }\n  }\n  const gainPositive = ci.low > 0\n  const gainNegative = ci.high < 0\n  if (gainNegative) {\n    return {\n      decision: 'reject',\n      reason: `Paired-delta CI [${fmt(ci.low)}, ${fmt(ci.high)}] lies entirely below zero.`,\n    }\n  }\n  if (ctx.posterior.n < ctx.minPairs) {\n    return {\n      decision: 'needs_more_data',\n      reason: `Only ${ctx.posterior.n} paired observations; minimum detectable effect at this N is ${fmt(ctx.posterior.mde)} score units (need ≥ ${ctx.minPairs} pairs to issue a directional verdict).`,\n    }\n  }\n  if (row.qValue !== null && row.qValue <= ctx.fdr && gainPositive) {\n    return {\n      decision: 'promote',\n      reason: `BH-adjusted q=${fmt(row.qValue)} ≤ ${ctx.fdr} and paired-delta CI [${fmt(ci.low)}, ${fmt(ci.high)}] excludes zero; Pr(Δ>0)=${fmt(ctx.posterior.prGreaterThanZero)}.`,\n    }\n  }\n  return {\n    decision: 'hold',\n    reason: `Pr(Δ>0)=${fmt(ctx.posterior.prGreaterThanZero)} but CI [${fmt(ci.low)}, ${fmt(ci.high)}] crosses zero; effect not decisive at fdr=${ctx.fdr}.`,\n  }\n}\n\nfunction buildRecommendation(\n  candidates: ResearchReportCandidate[],\n  ctx: {\n    comparator: string | null\n    failureClusters?: FailureClusterReport\n    rope: { low: number; high: number } | null\n    minPairs: number\n    preregistrationHash: string | null\n  },\n): ResearchReportRecommendation {\n  const nonComparator = candidates.filter((c) => c.candidateId !== ctx.comparator)\n  const bestPromote = nonComparator.find((c) => c.decision === 'promote')\n  const bestEquivalent = nonComparator.find((c) => c.decision === 'equivalent')\n  const chosen = bestPromote ?? bestEquivalent ?? nonComparator[0] ?? null\n  const decision: ResearchReportDecision = bestPromote\n    ? 'promote'\n    : nonComparator.some((c) => c.decision === 'needs_more_data')\n      ? 'needs_more_data'\n      : bestEquivalent\n        ? 'equivalent'\n        : nonComparator.some((c) => c.decision === 'hold')\n          ? 'hold'\n          : 'reject'\n\n  const rationale: string[] = []\n  const risks: string[] = []\n  const nextActions: string[] = []\n\n  if (chosen) {\n    rationale.push(`${chosen.candidateId}: ${chosen.decisionReason}`)\n    if (chosen.gainCi) {\n      const probSummary =\n        chosen.prGreaterThanZero !== null ? `, Pr(Δ>0)=${fmt(chosen.prGreaterThanZero)}` : ''\n      rationale.push(\n        `Median paired gain CI: [${fmt(chosen.gainCi.low)}, ${fmt(chosen.gainCi.high)}]${probSummary}.`,\n      )\n    }\n    if (chosen.mde !== null && Number.isFinite(chosen.mde)) {\n      rationale.push(`MDE at current paired N=${chosen.pairedN}: ${fmt(chosen.mde)} score units.`)\n    }\n  }\n  if (!ctx.comparator) {\n    risks.push('No comparator was configured; verdict is descriptive, not causal.')\n    nextActions.push('Re-run with a stable comparator candidate for paired inference.')\n  }\n  if (!ctx.preregistrationHash) {\n    risks.push(\n      'No preregistration hash supplied; readers cannot verify the analysis was specified before data inspection.',\n    )\n    nextActions.push(\n      'Sign a HypothesisManifest before the next sweep and pass `preregistrationHash` so the report cites it.',\n    )\n  }\n  if (ctx.rope === null && nonComparator.length > 0) {\n    risks.push(\n      'No ROPE configured; the report cannot distinguish \"equivalent\" from \"inconclusive\".',\n    )\n    nextActions.push(\n      'Define a domain-specific Region of Practical Equivalence and pass it to lock in the equivalence threshold.',\n    )\n  }\n  const inconclusive = nonComparator.filter((c) => c.decision === 'needs_more_data')\n  if (inconclusive.length > 0) {\n    const worst = inconclusive.reduce((a, b) => (b.pairedN < a.pairedN ? b : a))\n    risks.push(\n      `${inconclusive.length} candidate(s) below soft floor (${ctx.minPairs} pairs); thinnest is ${worst.candidateId} with ${worst.pairedN}.`,\n    )\n    nextActions.push(\n      `Collect at least ${ctx.minPairs - worst.pairedN} more matched holdout runs for ${worst.candidateId}.`,\n    )\n  }\n  const rejected = nonComparator.filter((c) => c.decision === 'reject')\n  if (rejected.length > 0) {\n    risks.push(\n      `${rejected.length} candidate(s) failed the paired test or held-out gate; do not ship those variants.`,\n    )\n  }\n  if (ctx.failureClusters && ctx.failureClusters.clusters.length > 0) {\n    const top = ctx.failureClusters.clusters[0]!\n    risks.push(`Top failure cluster: ${top.failureClass} across ${top.runCount} run(s).`)\n    nextActions.push('Prioritize the largest failure cluster before broad rollout.')\n  }\n  if (decision === 'promote') {\n    nextActions.push('Ship behind the existing promotion gate and monitor canaries.')\n  } else if (decision === 'hold') {\n    nextActions.push('Keep current production candidate while expanding holdout evidence.')\n  } else if (decision === 'equivalent') {\n    nextActions.push(\n      'Either keep the comparator (no quality regression) or promote on cost/latency grounds — equivalence does not justify either; the choice is a product decision, not a stats one.',\n    )\n  } else if (decision === 'reject') {\n    nextActions.push(\n      'Do not promote this sweep; inspect failures and generate a revised candidate.',\n    )\n  }\n\n  return {\n    decision,\n    candidateId: chosen?.candidateId ?? null,\n    rationale,\n    risks,\n    nextActions,\n  }\n}\n\nfunction buildExecutiveSummary(\n  candidates: ResearchReportCandidate[],\n  recommendation: ResearchReportRecommendation,\n  ctx: {\n    comparator: string | null\n    split: 'search' | 'holdout'\n    failureClusters?: FailureClusterReport\n    preregistrationHash: string | null\n  },\n): string[] {\n  const lines: string[] = []\n  const nonComparator = candidates.filter((c) => c.candidateId !== ctx.comparator)\n  lines.push(\n    `Evaluated ${nonComparator.length} candidate(s) on the ${ctx.split} split${ctx.comparator ? ` against ${ctx.comparator}` : ''}.`,\n  )\n  lines.push(\n    `Recommendation: ${recommendation.decision}${recommendation.candidateId ? ` ${recommendation.candidateId}` : ''}.`,\n  )\n  const promoted = nonComparator.filter((c) => c.decision === 'promote').length\n  const held = nonComparator.filter((c) => c.decision === 'hold').length\n  const equivalent = nonComparator.filter((c) => c.decision === 'equivalent').length\n  const rejected = nonComparator.filter((c) => c.decision === 'reject').length\n  const more = nonComparator.filter((c) => c.decision === 'needs_more_data').length\n  lines.push(\n    `Decision mix: ${promoted} promote, ${equivalent} equivalent, ${held} hold, ${rejected} reject, ${more} need more data.`,\n  )\n  const frontier = nonComparator.filter((c) => c.onParetoFrontier).map((c) => c.candidateId)\n  if (frontier.length > 0) lines.push(`Pareto-frontier candidates: ${frontier.join(', ')}.`)\n  if (ctx.failureClusters) {\n    lines.push(\n      `Failure clustering found ${ctx.failureClusters.totalFailures}/${ctx.failureClusters.totalRuns} failed runs across ${ctx.failureClusters.clusters.length} reportable cluster(s).`,\n    )\n  }\n  lines.push(\n    ctx.preregistrationHash\n      ? `Preregistered analysis: ${ctx.preregistrationHash.slice(0, 12)}…`\n      : 'Analysis is post-hoc — no preregistration hash supplied.',\n  )\n  return lines\n}\n\nfunction renderResearchMarkdown(report: {\n  title: string\n  generatedAt: string\n  split: 'search' | 'holdout'\n  comparator: string | null\n  executiveSummary: string[]\n  recommendation: ResearchReportRecommendation\n  candidates: ResearchReportCandidate[]\n  summary: SummaryTable\n  pareto: ParetoFigureSpec\n  gains: GainDistributionFigureSpec[]\n  rope: { low: number; high: number } | null\n  runFingerprint: string\n  preregistrationHash: string | null\n  methodology: ResearchReportMethodology\n  failureClusters?: FailureClusterReport\n}): string {\n  const lines: string[] = []\n  lines.push(`# ${report.title}`)\n  lines.push('')\n  lines.push(`**Generated:** ${report.generatedAt}`)\n  lines.push(`**Primary split:** ${report.split}`)\n  lines.push(`**Comparator:** ${report.comparator ?? 'not configured'}`)\n  lines.push(`**ROPE:** ${report.rope ? formatRope(report.rope) : 'not configured'}`)\n  lines.push(`**Run fingerprint:** \\`${report.runFingerprint}\\``)\n  lines.push(\n    `**Preregistration:** ${report.preregistrationHash ? `\\`${report.preregistrationHash}\\`` : 'none'}`,\n  )\n  lines.push('')\n  lines.push('## Executive Summary')\n  lines.push('')\n  for (const item of report.executiveSummary) lines.push(`- ${item}`)\n  lines.push('')\n  lines.push('## Recommendation')\n  lines.push('')\n  lines.push(`**Decision:** ${report.recommendation.decision}`)\n  lines.push(`**Candidate:** ${report.recommendation.candidateId ?? 'N/A'}`)\n  lines.push('')\n  lines.push('### Rationale')\n  lines.push('')\n  for (const item of report.recommendation.rationale) lines.push(`- ${item}`)\n  lines.push('')\n  lines.push('### Risks')\n  lines.push('')\n  for (const item of report.recommendation.risks.length\n    ? report.recommendation.risks\n    : ['No material report-level risks detected.']) {\n    lines.push(`- ${item}`)\n  }\n  lines.push('')\n  lines.push('### Next Actions')\n  lines.push('')\n  for (const item of report.recommendation.nextActions) lines.push(`- ${item}`)\n  lines.push('')\n  lines.push('## Candidate Decision Table')\n  lines.push('')\n  lines.push(\n    '| Candidate | Decision | Mean | Δ̄ | Pr(Δ>0) | q | dz | Paired N | Median Gain CI | MDE | Pareto | Gate |',\n  )\n  lines.push('|---|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---|---:|---|---|')\n  for (const c of report.candidates) {\n    const delta = c.meanDeltaVsComparator === null ? 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'-'} |`,\n    )\n  }\n  lines.push('')\n  lines.push('## Statistical Summary')\n  lines.push('')\n  lines.push(report.summary.markdown)\n  lines.push('')\n  lines.push('## Methodology')\n  lines.push('')\n  lines.push('### Assumptions')\n  lines.push('')\n  for (const item of report.methodology.assumptions) lines.push(`- ${item}`)\n  lines.push('')\n  lines.push('### Methods')\n  lines.push('')\n  for (const item of report.methodology.methods) lines.push(`- ${item}`)\n  lines.push('')\n  lines.push('### Alternatives Considered')\n  lines.push('')\n  for (const item of report.methodology.alternatives) lines.push(`- ${item}`)\n  lines.push('')\n  lines.push('### When NOT To Apply')\n  lines.push('')\n  for (const item of report.methodology.whenNotToApply) lines.push(`- ${item}`)\n  lines.push('')\n  lines.push('### Citations')\n  lines.push('')\n  for (const item of report.methodology.citations) lines.push(`- ${item}`)\n  lines.push('')\n  lines.push('## Chart Specs')\n  lines.push('')\n  lines.push(\n    'The report carries JSON chart specs for Pareto cost/quality and paired gain histograms.',\n  )\n  lines.push('')\n  lines.push('```json')\n  lines.push(JSON.stringify({ pareto: report.pareto, gains: report.gains }, null, 2))\n  lines.push('```')\n  if (report.failureClusters) {\n    lines.push('')\n    lines.push('## Failure Clusters')\n    lines.push('')\n    lines.push('| Failure Class | Runs | Scenarios | Tool | Example |')\n    lines.push('|---|---:|---:|---|---|')\n    for (const c of report.failureClusters.clusters.slice(0, 10)) {\n      lines.push(\n        `| ${c.failureClass} | ${c.runCount} | ${c.scenarioIds.length} | ${c.toolName ?? 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